Tories move up 5 with ComRes
April 27th, 2009
CON 45(+5) LAB 26(-2) LD 17(-1)
So another survey with no respite for Brown?
Since last week’s budget the only pollster we’ve had voting intention numbers from has been YouGov - although we have had two surveys so it’s good that tonight another poll is published. The survey from ComRes for the Independent has shares very much in the same area.
The comparisons are on the last ComRes poll at the end of March and an enormous amount has happened in the meantime - the G20, Smeargate, the continuing MP expenses row and, of course the budget.
The big change here is the shift in the Tory share which is well above the margin of error. ComRes is showing a 19% lead over Labour which is one point higher than the the two YouGov polls.
All three surveys since the budget have Cameron’s Tories on the same number 45% and all three would produce a landslide victory for the party if repeated at a general election.
These are the worst figure for Labour from ComRes since August - the only difference between now and then is the maximum time for recovery before the general election can be held. We are in the final year and each week we get closer to when the voting has to be held.
ComRes is a telephone pollster that uses past vote weighting though the way it operates this is different from ICM and Populus. I always like to see the main data before fully committing myself to a verdict.
It’s very hard to see how Labour can break out of this spiral of decline and it’s hard, also, to predict anything other than a substantial Tory victory.
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First again but I mustn’t boast.
First?
Only 5?
Fascinating that the Lib Dems haven’t benefited at all. This was not what I was expecting.
Brown is a lame duck. Will the knives be out for him after the June elections?
200 seat majority…..
Cameron has been back in the media spotlight again this weekend. Smithson rule still holds true.
So, I was probably wrong, and there is a genuine move *to* the Tories, not just a softening in Labour.
The lead increases by 7 which is pretty big.
5 - Let’s hope not
Good poll for the Tories - back to the sort of leads that they were enjoying last summer, share in a very comfortable mid 40s area too and Labour slipping back. Ominous for Brown.
5 - it will depend on the Euro-election results. No doubt the votes each party poll in each seat will be totted up and if grim, the knives will be out. Perhaps for other parties too.
Like I said on last thread,poor numbers for lib dems = cleggover on tv.
Labour are in almost exactly the same position they were in this time last year when they the went down to a terrible defeat in the local elections. Assuming the county council and euro elections aren’t cancealled for Swine Flu, June 4th could be a Labour blood bath.
And apologies to Chertboy from the previous thread.
And Stephen Byers has just ‘kicked him in the nuts’ on the 50p rate, in the chamber, on the budget debate.
If you are the Lib Dem’s you have to be really worried, Saint Vince of Cable is on Pravda seemingly every single day, and to most casual observers much of what he says seems very sensible (the flip flopping etc isn’t brought up by the Beeb). So even after all this free positive press exposure, the LD don’t seem to be picking up much support from all the angry natural Labour voters.
9, aye it’s a big shift. However we’ve had 10, 17, 18, 18, 19, 19 recently, I think.
Only a small shift to 20 point leads.
As for Brown’s future, my view remains the same. He’ll only go if one of two conditions are met:
1) he’s persuaded to do so voluntarily
2) there is such overwhelmingly united internal opposition he has no choice
I think both are unlikely. We saw last year he’s more than willing to cling on when backbenchers call for his head and a minister resigns. Would they risk going so far just prior to an electoral test?
5 Lame duck-dead duck is more accurate
Near mutinous PLP meeting? The same old same old after the 10p debacle, but today with a triple whammy: botched press conference, Byers’ elephant trap debunking, and second home allowances farce.
Coming apart at the seams as Iain Dale observes. Where is McBride when you might need him?
MY immediate thought is that this understates the LibDem and Others so could Labour really be even lower?
Mike when are you givng us back the smiley Daves?We see enough of Mr Glum on the TV news every day.
5
Don’t think so as most Labour MP’s are focussed on 12 more months on the gravy-train,a change of leader would force an early election.
2nd poll in a row, that the Conservatives poll more than Lab and the Lib Dems combined
Would you mind having a look at this……..
http://votethornton.blogspot.com/
…..comments would be welcomed.
20.”Near mutinous PLP meeting?”
When is the next one?
And the Tories seem to be stablising in the mid 40s,this is the third of the last six polls to put the Tories at 45%-AND moe omniously still for Labour,the third to have them down at 26%
It’s very difficult to see labour losing more than one or two MEP seats because of the PR voting system. If more are lost, the meltdown scenarios for the GE are far more likely.
On these sort of numbers the Scottish Tories would be the second biggest parliamentary group again with around 13 seats even if we didnt recover Perth or Angus from the SNP
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 43% .. Lab 28% .. LibDem 19.6% .. Others 9.4%
The PISSED Jack W Seat Index with value added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 360 seats .. Lab 207 .. LibDem 50 .. Others 33.
Con majority of 70
David Cameron is Prime Minister
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
Anyway, I’m off for the night. Glad to see more good numbers against Brown.
18 Their problem is that we’re so close to the next election now, they must be equally doomed whether they keep him or drop him.
Would Labour have done better if Blair had remained, as OGH believes? I think so. They wouldn’t be in a winning position, but I think they would have avoided most of the elephant traps (50% tax, the most contentious bits of the Equalities Bill, the shambles over MPs’ expenses etc.) that Gordon Brown sets for his party, and which they’re so keen to blunder into.
FPT
What’s fascinating by these polls is they show a weakening of LD support leaching to the Tories.
I was totally wrong when I thought Labour would drop by a notch or two after the Budget - they’ve dropped by 5. Much more. But I was right when I said that some LDs might now shift to the Tories just to make sure Labour lose, and lose big.
This is, I think, what is happening. Middle class voters attracted to the LDs but too “fastidious” to vote Tory are now thinking: “What the f*ck, Labour are a hideous nightmare of sleaze and ineptitude, let’s get rid, before they tax and spunk us all into oblivion, and come after my money too. I’m with Cammo.”
Such was the negative effect of that Budget, it is driving middle class centrists and centre lefties - towards the Tories.
Labour are down to the ethnic minorities, a residual white working class vote (which is crumbling), a few dozen teachers in Stoke Newington, and Bob in Galashiels who has a bad cough.
The Labour Party is sinking below the waves. A sub-Foot result - in both percentage of the vote and number of seats - is looking increasingly possible.
14. GIN: Labour are in almost exactly the same position they were in this time last year when they the went down to a terrible defeat in the local elections.
We are now five and a half weeks before the locals/Euros. Five and a half weeks before 1 May last year my estimate of the overall position was 40-32.5-18; it’s now 43-28-18.5.
Sky ripping the p!ss out of Brown all night - ‘the new proposals aren’t even on youtube….’
Sir Christopher Kelly has basically told brown to f off and keep his nose out of the review and that he’ll get recommendations when a full job has been done, not when Brown wants them.
This is the biggest Tory lead in a ComRes poll since September, BTW.
It’s hard to describe GOrdon Brown as a lame duck since he can actually still do things due to his parliamentary majority.
I’d more suggest he is a duck with terminal cancer with a prognosis of no more than 13 months.
28. Easterross April 27th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
Would that be mostly at the expense of Labour?
32.
” …and Bob in Galashiels who has a bad cough.”
That will be four in Scotland with the Swine Flu.
32.
” …and Bob in Galashiels who has a bad cough.”
That will be four in Scotland with the Swine Flu.
20 Pooner isn’t McBride visiting the ex-flats of cabinet ministers to take nasty photos of unwashed pots in filthy kitchens for his surrogate master The Great Balls?
Linear Conservative Majority is now approaching 100 for the first time since August last year.
Exponential Conservative Majority is ranging between 70 and 80.
There is no coming back from this for Labour.
32 BREAKING NEWS: Bob in Galashiels put into quarantine….
42 - postal votes?
31.Sean, the decision on whether Brown stays or goes before the next GE will be his alone, the Labour party might well be left up the creek without a canoe, never mind a paddle. I can see Brown walking away rather than being pushed out, leaving chaos behind him.
“Labour are down to the ethnic minorities, a residual white working class vote (which is crumbling), a few dozen teachers in Stoke Newington, and Bob in Galashiels who has a bad cough.”
It is striking that their base is now smaller than in 1983. They really look as if they’ll be reduced to Tyneside, Greater Glasgow, Merseyside, South Yorkshire, and the run-down bits of London and the West Midlands, at the next election.
Time to dust down the politics home poll of the marginals from last August again.
Someone should whisper in Gordon’s ear… there’s a way to avoid catastrophic EU election results - leave the EU. Now.
I don’t think even Swine Flu could save Gordon now.
In fact, so hapless and pathetic is our premier, even if the f*cking Black Death broke out, if he gave a national TV broadcast on the matter, he’d probably make it with two rats sitting on each weirdly quivering shoulder, and a weeping bubo on his lip, which he would try to disguise with a risibly feeble fake moustache. Which would fall off.
31 - It’s the Labour PLP’s own stupid fault. They had their opportunity last year to get rid of Gordon Brown and they blew it. They deserve everything that’s coming to them.
47.Out of date.
The big petition news at the moment is the addition of the signature from “nobody elected brown” which takes the number who have signed the petition for Brown to stay up to 8.
One of those eight may even be a real person!
51 - Why do you say that? It’s about the same sort of poll lead as we were getting then. We have nothing else comparable for helping us assess the constituency seat betting.
“This is, I think, what is happening. Middle class voters attracted to the LDs but too fastidious to vote Tory are now thinking: “What the f*ck, Labour are a hideous nightmare of sleaze and ineptitude, let’s get rid, before they tax and spunk us all into oblivion, and come after my money too. I’m with Cammo.””
The last time that happened was in 1979, when even Sir Peter Hall voted Conservative (but was subsequently repelled by the fact that Mrs. Thatcher bought clothes from M & S).
However, Labour’s working class support is now much weaker than in 1979, which points to a much grimmer outcome.
previous thread
178. No, in a house of 650, 325 Tories would be a tie [meaning a arithmetic minority of one], relying on the Speaker’s casting vote.
325 Tories [less two deputy speakers] = 323
1 “Labour” Speaker
324 Opposition [less 1 more Opposition deputy Speaker] = 323
Voting strength
323 Government v 323 Opposition. A tie [meaning the Tories have one (in practice 2) fewer than a majority]
In practice, it doesn’t matter which side of the House the speaker come’s from, or whether he is in situ at the time of the election…
For those following the Resign Petition - we have now moved into the Premiership!
At 18,261, more people hve now signed the petition asking Brown to resign than the average attendance at Wigan Athletic. Think about that - the average crowd at a Premiership game want Brown out! And have said so on Downing Street’s own website!! Classic….
Next milestones to look out for:
19,783 Portsmouth
22,243 Bolton Wanderers
23,146 Blackburn Rovers
49. Brown copes best when his dull, dour demeanor fits well with a time of crisis. Witness the floods, the terrorism, and the financial crisis. At present, he’s not all over the airwaves, being out of the country, which might hinder any kind of boost he could get from this.
Would he get a boost? Potentially, but only if he’s seen to act decisively and I’m sure it would only be a point or so. I doubt the opposition have much to worry about.
24 Ian is the LibDem candidate John McCrirrick’s younger brother? The only things missing are the big hat and excessive amounts of jewellery. If he appeared at my house I wouldnt be able to take him seriously. My good Westmorland blood is rising in my veins as I type. As for Margaret and her toilets, public toilets are important but are they as important as keeping schools open or filling pottholes in roads?
Never mind. Gordon will be praying for a flu pandemic to sustain the Labour Government, many of whose members must be wetting themselves with anticipation about their incompetence on economic and other matters being crowded out by millions dying of flu, and the opportunity to look in control and tackling a natural crisis!
Brown Bounce part 5?
Is it just me or does YouGov seem to be producing lower than expected numbers for the Lib-Dems? Also it is good to see Jack W getting his ARSE out again, truely a highlight for this site is plotting its shapely curves.
53.Antifrank, the polling figures may be similar, but I really do think that poll is now out of date because of the economy today.
The 2005 GE results seem so long ago, and even the 2007 Scottish elections are looking very out of date. Events have moved on so fast.
26 Patrick did you hear your club’s fans being maligned on Breakfast TV today? All because they were remarking on the interesting family circumstances of 2 Chelsea players.
32. It could be that the civil liberties issues etc. are impressing the less anti-Tory LD voters.
A several people of that way of thinking, whom I know, found it very significant that Cameron replaced Davis with another hard-core civil liberties type.
Mike, may I suggest what we need is for someone to compose a thread for PB, thinking ouside the box, as to just how bad it might conceivably become for Labour. Although the Spreads, Betfair’s Party Seats Line, the Bookies odds for their bands of seats, etc all suggest a most likely outcome for Labour of between 200-225 seats. Is it just possible that we are all following the herd instinct and with yet worse news to come, that their final tally might be around 150 seats or even lower?
I mention this not least because there are some really sexy odds available should they plunge to such levels, not to mention the small matter of 65 seats or more profit opportunity on the spreads.
The logical and most skilled person to write such a thread is undoubtedly Rod Crosby. Unfortunately, he is already on the record as saying it is inconceivable that Labour could win less than 200 seats, so perhaps we need to look elsewhere.
I readily admit that I have no detailed knowledge of how the seats are distributed geographically - although I do remember at Margaret Thatcher’s final hour when, drawing a line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel, south of which Labour won only 4 seats outside London. Taking into account significant potential losses in both Scotland and Wales, is it not possible that Labour could sink to around the 150 level?
20 & 41
My MP confirmed that McBride has actually been fired from the civil service,must be a first.He now gets to sample at first hand those wonderful Job Centres,I wonder what they will suggest for his next career step?
52 - Up to 9 now. Thanks to “snot-gobbler” for adding their support.
61 - Certainly we are in different times. But I detect the same feeling of hopelessness about the Labour party as infested it last summer. Patrick the open-minded West Ham fan’s comment at 19 is emblematic. If Gordon Brown can’t persuade the likes of Patrick, Labour are in the direst of straits.
Sean Fear
Labour would be down to only 9 seats in South Yorkshire (compared to 14 in 1983) on this poll.
60. Yougov tend to have us low. We’ve only recently moved above 14-16 with them. ComRes tend to have us a bit all over the place.
Still pretty disappointed tbh.
64. Mike, could I add to that a request (again!!!) for an article on the possibility that the Lib Dems might do very well against Labour and very badly against the Tories - possibly ending up with more seats, but having lost a number of key figures.
59. I don;t think Swine Flu will reach Plague-type proportions (inshallah) but even if it did, I honestly doubt, now, how much it would benefit Gordo. His dour, dull but dependable persona has been destroyed by wankergate and smeargate.
He’s now seen (rightly) as grasping, devious, careerist, and malign. What’s more, he’s seen as INCOMPETENTLY malign.
He’s not the go-to guy in a crisis, any more. He’s just… Gordo the f*ckw1t.
If we do get a crisis, Labour’s best bet would be a national unity government, led by Cameron, with Brown as the janitor, or something.
66. Brown must be thrilled by that vote of confidence.
What was Roger’s prediction for the opinion polls in April?
68 Interesting. That confirms their ongoing loss of working class support.
@69: Do you think that the LD position would be improved by focusing completely on Labour, or is the “plague on both your houses” strategy still worth following?
Sky ripping the new expenses plan to shreds.
Grace and Favour proposal - gone
London MPs not to claim - postponed
Per Diem payment - gone
Is there anything that is actually left apart from the employment of staff?
67.antifrank, its just female intuition, so make of that what you will.
I think that the feelings of hopelessness are now turning to genuine anger, and that does have an effect on polling in the marginals. It fires people up to turnout, and it could also see them voting tactically to put the Conservatives into power, rather than just kicking Labour out. Could make a real difference in some seats.
heh, Brown has dropped the no ‘grace and favour’ second prop claimants from the proposals too so his ‘3 home’ ministers have obviously dug their heels in - he gets to carrying on claiming himself as well of course.
62 I was not up early enough,if its not too much trouble to ask,I’d be intigued as to a brief outline
73. The Tory lead down to small single digits.
I offered him out, on that, as well. Sadly he declined my wager.
64 - I’m in the “under 200 club” and have been for some time. For Labour to go below 150, we need to see a breakdown of Labour party discipline. To date, Labour has been astonishingly united, given the circumstances. Gordon Brown is testing that loyalty to the limit, but I don’t think even he can break it this side of a general election. At present, my estimated lowest possible on the current trajectory that Labour is charting is 160. In practice, 180 or above is more likely.
If you plug this poll result into electoral calculus without regional adjustment, Labour gets 173 seats. Only one of these is south of the Severn/Wash line (Bristol South).
If Gordon Brown steps down as leader before the election without an agreed successor, then under 150 comes seriously into play as a possibility, depending on how the succession contest is fought and who wins.
64. It was three, including Bristol South. Ipswich and Thurrock were the other two…
75: I don’t think the ‘plague on both your houses’ is working…. Always attack the weak link should be order of the day.
49 - seanT - after rather a difficult day, thank you for reducing Mrs F and I to tears of laughter.
68 - Richard, are those your calculations?
Obviously there is Hallam for the Lib Dems. What Conservative wins are you predicting?
75 - depends if the media will go down that road. From reading the press since Wednesday they want rid of Labour and Tories are the best vehicle for that.
71- Janitor seems too humiliating. Perhaps Brown could be convinced to simply resign with a promise of beef jerky for life, or some other suitable enticement.
Very bad for Labour. FTSE up a bit, some signs (in the media if nowhere else…) of at least the economy not getting worse as fast, and still Labour are having terrible ratings, in landslide territory.
If as I suspect the economy takes a further turn down and interest rates have to rise, there will be no conceivable way back for Labour short of Cameron drunkenly mooning at the Queen or something.
38 Martin
From Labour
Stirling
East Renfrewshire
Dumfries and Galloway
Ochil and South Perthshire
Aberdeen South
Edinburgh North
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
From LibDems
Argyll
Berwick, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Also vulnerable on non UNS swing
Aberdeenshire West from LibDems
Perth from SNP
Dunbartonshire East from LibDems (on evenly split 4 in 4 way marginal)
Goodness. That’s quite a poll collapse, dearie.
Labour’s core vote seems to have developed a collective form of Swine Flu.
80 - Shame to hear that, Hell even Tim accepted one of my bets.
Roger if you’re reading this, can you do me a favour, can you say “Liverpool wont win the Premiership this season” please.
I’ll donate a tenner to your favourite charity.
It was ComRes that twice had the Conservative down to only 1% during December?
Does everyone remember the frantic discussions they caused!
Quite a few people on here said that Brown should have called an election immediately after Glenrothes for December 4th, a time when he was still viewed by some as ‘the saviour of the world’.
To paraphrase Oscar Wilde:
To miss the chance of one favourable election opportunity may be considered a misfortune. To miss two means you’re a gutless coward!
87: Give him a little farm to play with. He’ll be happy.
@83: Personally, I would agree with that; the LDs need a clarity of purpose which “we’re not either of those two, you know” fails to provide.
Sean Fear April 27th, 2009 at 8:22 pm “It is striking that their base is now smaller than in 1983.”
Labour fought the GE in 1979 with 26% of councillors.
Today they have 22% and in 1983 it was 35%.
Getting back for Labour will be harder than 1979.
93 - Maybe he could go and work for tim?
@95:
It’ll be under 20% in June.
56 The acknowledgment email from No 10 after one votes is priceless. I’m watching Despatches on Channel 4 and even the Labour friendly Will Hutton cannot dress the credit crunch as anything other than a disaster.
83. Slackbladder: I don’t think the ‘plague on both your houses’ is working
The problem the LDs continue to face is that their “keep the Tories out” strategy of the last two elections is now laughable - but the Senior wing of party activists is too strong to allow Clegg to run with the “get Labour out” strategy that they need.
Could the apparent underperformance of the Lib Dems simply be down to media coverage? They decided to sit out the smeargate issue and haven’t really made much impact on the debate about the budget. Out of sight, out of mind?
The problem (or opportunity) for the Lib Dems is that for them, perhaps more so than for any other party, 17% and 17% can be two completely different things. Where the 6% they’ve lost from last time has gone is critical to their chances (if they have indeed lost 6% - they’ve polled better quite recently). If the loss is largely to the Tories then it will be disastrous, not least because that effect could be felt most where they already have MPs. If, on the other hand, the vote in the Tory-LD is fairly secure and it’s just the anti-Iraq War vote drifting off again then it’s less serious because its (a) less concentrated and (b) only a one-vote per voter switch.
As for the other parties, this can’t be wholly unexpected by Labour. After all, they’ve had an appalling April, once the G20 was over (did that cause the leadership to take its eye off the ball too much?). Surely things can’t go on so relentlessly badly?
As an aside, if there is to be a leadership election over the Summer, it’s really going to have to happen after the expenses get published, otherwise Labour might risk losing half their field in-race, rather like the Lib Dems did a few years ago.
And the Conservatives face decision time. There’s a lot of political capital in the bank at the moment. Spending some of it now by setting realistic expectations about what a future government will have to do after the election might reap dividends in the longer term - providing that there’s enough left to ensure the win in the first place.
67 And last week,for the first time ever,not only did I feel irritation and frustration-I felt sheer bloody anger-at the economic mess,it crystalised in my mind as a humble ancillary worker in a school the amount of box-ticking in the public sector I see with my own eyes,waste and overspend in my own school of employment-multiply this out over the whole public sector and God alone knows the magnitude of potential savings-WITHOUT hitting front-line teachers and nurses-WITHOUT totally abolishing tax credits,but steepening the slide-out-surely a couple earning £50 K with kids scarcely would miss the few pounds of tax cred they receive.
In other words,David cameron’s message of austere times may well be accepted,as the election approaches and bones and meat are put on the Tory manifesto.
(As someone of Irish Catholic descent I still believe history (the Tory peers blocking the 1885 Irish Home Rule Bill) will 98% certain culminate in my voting Lib DEm.
Rant over!
What we are yet to see are new records in the polling. But it is getting close to them.
Can we all just take a moment, please, to remember the brief life of the G20 Brown Bounce.
Though her days on this earth were vanishingly few, she brought light and laughter to many, OK some, OK Roger and Nick. And then she was gone, like a will o-the wisp, like a firefly in June. Her departure was all the more cruel, given the earnest toils of so many government figures through the months that preceded her birth.
A moment’s silence please.
Then ribald cheering and satirical farting noises.
89. Thanks - So that is goodbye Darling then in Edinborough South!
80. Poor old Roger does seem to make some some shocking predictions;
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/04/g20-boost-for-gord-on-pbs-the-money-says-index/#comment-993096
89. We know it won’t be UNS in Scotland - it will be a lot lower. Try knocking-off 3% from your Lab-Con swing and tell us what it says…
Aren’t there one or two who owe cheltboy an apology?
The question is are the rumours about the expenses to come in July that bad? The rumours filtering out suggest it is going to be more damaging for Labour than either the Libdems or Conservatives. Will Labour drag their heals as they usually do about getting rid of those engulfed in the expenses scandal?
Furthermore, they will be published just weeks after Labour are likely to get hammered in the County Council and Euro elections.
Could we see Labour hit new lows in the polls?
101
Are you serious? You hold a grudge for 124 years?! That is impressive! A little unnerving maybe as well…
64 PfP,
Things could get to a meltdown for Labour. Their 2005 performance in terms of votes was really poor. They were only saved because that of the Tories was historically woeful, in spite of winning some seats back. Seats not on the radar could go, simply because if - as I expect - the anti-Brown vote comes out en masse; then the last performance will be shown up for being as poor as it is.
I’ll point to extracts from a post of mine this morning following the London poll numbers, in response to a post by Sean Fear suggesting a seconf tier of seats that might just be vulnerable:
“I think increased turnout will be the key - whilst percentage wise, they look quite safe, in terms of a chunkier turnout, [Labour's] majorities are numerically easy to punch through with a 10% higher turnout. Turnout was under 48% in Feltham and Heston, for example.
My best guess of the order they fall (majorities are post-boundary change nominal from 2005):
FELTHAM & HESTON (maj 7598)
DULWICH & WEST NORWOOD (maj 7853)
ERITH & THAMESMEAD (maj 9,870 - but with local party civil war)
ILFORD SOUTH (maj 9228)
BRENT NORTH (maj 8,830 - but “feels” further out of reach)
Bear in mind that there was a 17,000 Labour-Conservative vote differential between 1992 and 1997 elections in Enfield Southgate to remove Portillo. In comparison, these required switches are really quite modest.
I think Hayes and Harlington (55% turnout last time) and Mitcham and Morden could yet fall. Partly depends how much “mutual aid” the Tories get there - although I expect much in SW London will go to fighting the LibDems.
by Marquee Mark April 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Keith
Stocksbridge & Penistone, Rother Valley and Don Valley would all go Conservative on this poll. The Conservatives were ahead of Labour in these last May and they would be very likely to have stronger swings that UNS.
Sheffield Central would be a LibDem gain.
If there is strong anti-Labour tactical voting (as YouGov seemed to suggest) you might also see LibDem gains in Doncaster Central and Sheffield Heeley.
99: exactly right. The Lib Dem activist (but not necessarly their voters) base is very much anti-tory (and anti-liberal as well bizzarely). Their aim has to be,if they really, really want to to become the opposition with possible government at any time in the future, to become and take over the left-wing side of the political divide. That can only be done over the bones of a dead Labour party.
But cozing up to Labour, in any way, shape or form, will not work.
105 - To adapt someone famous. Never in the field of human prediction, has someone been so wrong, about so much, so often.
@108: I wonder if the problem is going to be that the Tory front bench are *relatively* clean, whereas the cabinet are up to their eyeballs in it. After all, we know that the Mirror has been crawling all over the Tory spokesfolks and come up with next to nothing. That will completely swamp any stories about backbench malfeasance.
107: Of course, he was right.
113. Will Hutton is close though…
106.”89. We know it won’t be UNS in Scotland - it will be a lot lower. Try knocking-off 3% from your Lab-Con swing and tell us what it says…”
Rod, it doesn’t matter if the UNS across Scotland is lower. It just has to be higher in the seats where it matters to the Conservatives!
err no mention of “swingback” on this thread !!!
Where have the bots gone?
64- two words: Harriet Harman
109 I admit to not being the stablest person on here,or ANYWHERE!
(I have a history of neuroses and bouts of deprssion dating back to late childhood,I have been in-patient in a psychiatric hospital several times in adulthood,touchwood not since 2000-although in summer 2007 I came very close and asked for voluntary admission,but my GP refused)
To the more substantive point-bear a grudge-less that than a feeling in my gut history could have and should have been different-but has largely come to a mutually agreeable formula-look on the bright side,better late than never!
There are some 147 seats in England where the Labour majority is 20% or more. By region they are:
27 London
2 South East
0 East
1 South West
10 East Midlands
20 West Midlands
28 Yorkshire & Humberside
35 North West
24 North East
Given say 20 Labour in Wales and 30 in Scotland, then that comes to around 200.
For Labour to fall to 150 seats, without a SNP landslide in Scotland, then what are seemingly very safe Labour seats in London, the Midlands and the North would have to fall. These are more likely to go Lib Dem. So a condition of Labour falling to 150 seats or so will be for the Lib Dems and SNP to do very well within the Labour heartlands.
101. Patrick. This is why Labour have to go. Their box-ticking, command and control mentality is the main area where we can cut costs without doing a lot of damage and done well it will actually improve productivity. The man primarily responsible for this frickin monstrosity? Gordon Brown. The man is a moron.
What I want from a Labour party is a commitment to social justice and equality of opportunity & a bit of redistribution. I want them to tackle the difficult jobs like destroying the NUT. I dont dislike unions in a knee jerk fashion, and I know that the NUT does a useful job in protecting teachers from school management, but they also believe every moronic bad left wing idea going. Labour need to learn about management in a better way, at the moment they seem to fall for every idiotic management fad in the book - “patient choice” (totally impractical given that even intelligent non-medics have no idea where they should get their hop replacement done), “parental choice” (except there isnt any). Targets. FFS.
Bristol South was the only non-London constituency in ’southern’ England that Labour won in both 1983 and 1987.
In 1983 they also won Ipswich and Thurrock but lost them in 1987.
In 1987 they also gained Oxfrod East and Norwich South which had been Conservative in 1983.
1987 was in total worse for Labour in ’southern’ England as they won 3 fewer London seats than they had in 1983. Walthamstow and Battersea being Conservative gains and Greenwich a LibDem gain (via a byelection).
119: It’s quiet, too quiet.
Based on this one poll, Baxter has it:
Con………418
Labour……173
LibDems……29
NI………..18
Others…….12
Total…….650
Con Maj…..186
103: ‘Can we all just take a moment, please, to remember the brief life of the G20 Brown Bounce.’
Some of us warned Labour supporters not to get over excited about that G20 nonsense, and were branded churlish and insufficiently grateful for our pains. In fact, can anyone now even remember what was agreed? Some loose change for the IMF wasn’t there? No idea what else…
108. Thing is, July time is when Parliament shuts up shop until October, there’s a 12 week holiday this year, gives everybody a chance to run away and hide and not answer questions.
The best scenario is for the rumoured CD containing all the expenses information to surface and be published before the local and EU elections. Wipe out. No confidence vote. Labour lose, with an election in July.
111 The East Ecclesfield result on Thursday will confirm that it is the LibDems in poll position in Stocksbridge/Pen1stone . It is good news that the Conservatives are fighting the byelection hard , they will have no excuses for a poor result .
RodC
I expect having an extra 3% swing in England to make up for a lower Scottish swing would be rather better for the Conservatives.
116. Kaletsky just shades Hutton in terms of utter, total and proven uselessness, I think. Though it’s close.
Of course, Dear Rogerdamus of this very Parish is the King of Risible Predictions, but he ain’t getting paid for it, so it’s different.
114. Indeed. You’ve got Smith already damned and who knows which other Ministers are going to get caught up in this. Also there is the rumour that there have been fraudulent claims where MPs who are seeing each other have both claimed for the same hotel room.
Of course it could include all the parties but given the other rumour that Brown has been told by his Chief Whip that there will be bye-elections as a result, if it is as bad as is being made out it could be a disaster for Labour.
The rumours about the Conservatives is the front bench is clean and that there are only a handful of backbenchers (all dinosaurs)who might be in trouble. Labours rumoured to have have 4 or 5 times that many problems.
The Libdems of course have 1 front bencher rumoured to be in trouble.
117. Not much sign of that then.
110. The Tories have little or no chane in Ilford South, Brent North, Hayes and Harlington along with Mitcham and Morden as these seats have undergone huge demographic changes over the past decade. The indicators from the GLA last year is that the more ethnic the area is, the better the Labour vote is, and I’d imagine that parts of London would be slightly less dire then other parts of the country.
127 - Stark Dawning - “Some loose change for the IMF wasn’t there?” Even that seems to have slipped down the back of the settee.
133. Rod - want to eat some humble pie over your predictions that the Tories had peaked?
121
Sorry to hear about your problems - was a light-hearted post! Sorry if I touched a nerve.
Mind you as a WHU fan I guess you are used to an imperfect life to say the least
121. Good man, Patrick. Stick with it. You have seemed much cheerier, or at least more stoically and objectively philosophical, of late.
And there’s nothing wrong with foolish, unrewarded, dogged gut loyalty. I have followed the English soccer team all my adult life….
The Sell of Lab at 220 looks mandatory now.
117 You mean like Aberdeen West and Kincardine . Your constituency chairman has gone missing since his post that you were heading for a 60% vote share in last Thursday’s byelection , you actually polled just 31% .
Looking at the political implications of Swine flu, I thought Nicola Sturgeon was very good on TV tonight so plus points for SNP.
The english bloke (forgot his name) was Ok at westminster..
But I am thankful that the first outbreak was not in Wales or we would have had Edwina Hart (sex symbol - not) making the press conference - complete with dandruff.
All this talk of 200 Con Majority will only happen if all the PPC are in place? Are they?
Achoo - Oink
oops..
Devastating poll for Labour. I’ve always believed that the LD’s will poll around 20% in the GE so they will do a lot better than this poll suggests (and sorry Martin but there is no way on God’s Green Earth that Eastleigh and Hallam will be anything other than easy LD holds!)
We’re now back at the situation we had before Lehman Brothers went tits up and triggered Brown Bounce 2. IIRC the Tories were starting to push through the 45% level and score in the high 40’s, Mori gave them 48% in February but that was probably a rogue. It will be interesting if they can climb north of 45% in the coming weeks. Stjohn was asking earlier where Labour’s firewall could be, if the lead goes higher then it could be places like Burnley or Heywood and Middleton. Even Erith and Thamesmead, scene of recent selection shenanigans and described by Al-Beeb’s coverage as one of Labour’s safest seats looks wobbly on this poll with Baxter giving a predicted majority of about 4.5% over the Tories. Also on these figures Balls would have a majority of 6.13%, very close for comfort!
Something to note is that if this poll was the GE result, then allowing for LD stickiness and Tory underperformance in Scotland, Cameron would have a net gain of about 200 seats, Blair’s in 1997 was about 140 seats. The record is over 200 by the Tories in 1931, it’s just possible that that record could be challenged next time!
130. But it can’t be 3% higher, since England is almost 10 times the size of Scotland.
It will be a little higher than the GB-wide swing in some regions of England, and a little lower elsewhere.
Net benefit to the Tories? - perhaps five seats.
133.Yeah, whatever, you know more than I do about this. I just do the leaflets and canvass up here!
128. True if it is leaked in June it will cause all sorts of issues but in July there would be little else politically to sweep it off the front pages. It probably wouldn’t make much difference from that perspective. All it would mean is that either way it would be a very long summer for Labour…….
Labour are below what I’d see as vore, which suggests there at least a little comeback or their supporters at at their wits end.
Tories at mid 40s is fair enough but it’ll be interesting to see if they can cement that. I can see them grabbing a solid 42% or so but if the mid 40s figues genuinely become concrete they simply need to keep a hand on the tiller. They certainly cant depend on Labour having an incompetent leader or a crappy economy forever so I think a mid 40s figure is pushing the limits.
The expenses vote will be very interesting indeed. If it goes ahead and Labour MPs go rebel theres the opening for a ball rolling exercise.
142. RodCrosby.
Surely this poll is just another sign that the Tories are piling up votes in their safe seats?
135. Ask me again if the Tories reach a sustained 20% lead…
105
be fair to Roger.. he has 3 days left……………
Norwich 0 Reading 1.
Punting-wise I would still absolutely bail out on the spread at a majority of 70-75 take a tidy profit and look again.
@149: Yeeerrrrrs! If it stays like that, we stay up…
147. RodCrosby.
So that’ll be a “no”, then.
Stubborn bugger, aren’t you?
139 - what was the increase in LD first preference votes?
Mark Senior
Bit of a drawback though for the LibDems to have as a candidate in Penistone & Stocksbridge someone who is both an outsider and a habitual loser.
The fact is that a significant proportion of the LibDem vote in Sheffield wards are natural Conservatives who have previously voted tactically LibDem. At the next election they will get the chance to post a meaningful Conservative vote.
141. any thoughts on Biffo down south? Theres a slow moving of tectonic plates going on. Question is, is it tremor or earthquake warning?
139.Oh Mark, how desperate is that. Your candidate couldn’t even win FPTP, no, not even with that surname in the area. We all got second best, and with a smaller majority than the winner on FPTP got. Been fascinated to watch the crowing of some of you on that site after winning in those circumstances.
Newcastle 0 Portsmouth 0 - Portsmouth have just been denied what might have been a penalty.
122 Richard - There are some 147 seats in England where the Labour majority is 20% or more.
Wow, that’s some bedrock of support, but haven’t you possibly double counted some London seats in your summary? Having said that Wales + Scotland at 30 seats looks low, mre like 40 seats I would guess.
So possibly we are looking currently at a range of 190-210 seats.
110 MM - What’s your best guess in terms of numbers?
it’s beinning to look like a lower than 200 seat tally for Labour as other posters are saying.1935 anyone?
155. Yes there is a distinct sound of knives being sharpened in Fianna Fail! As with Brown the results of the Euro and County Council elections will be crucial. If FF suffer meltdown then he is toast.
Whilst I would agree that the Conservatives are close to their highest level (they might be able to squeeze another point or two upwards), I’m not convinced that Labour have hit their core vote. I’m not suggesting their will be many switchers from Lab to Con but if things get really bad I can see further Labour seepage to the Greens, BNP and Libdems. Basically an anyone but Labour or Conservative mood adopted by former Labour voters.
139
Mark Senior. All this talk about local council by-elections is all very well, but about half of them are due to councillors resigning because they are useless/dodgy/defecting/sacked. So their party (mainly tories statistically) suffer in the subsequent by-election as the Orange army gets their harpies out to vote whilst everyone else with a life goes to work or the pub instead of voting in an election which changes nothing.
Most of the other contests have some special local issue which gets a small number of locals disproportionately worked up. Mainly these are sandal-wearing weird-beards from your party, which is why the Lib Dem turnout is always so high, and why you do so “well” in these deeply irrelevant contests. Who cares if the tory share in Little Snoring goes down 3%? It amuses me greatly that you think your tedious anecdotes can somehow compete for relevance with a national GE poll showing the tories on 45%. Again.
Remind me how many seats the Lib Dems gained on the last 2 “official” local election days, when turnout was higher than the 15% we generally see in by-elections?
129 - If the Liberals wanted to win in Penistone & Stocksbridge they would need to have done some work in the Barnsley side. Their candidate showing himself within 50 miles of the constituency would have helped as well.
I don’t know what will happen in East Ecclesfield this week, but if the LibDems retain it that doesn’t confirm anything.
Surely this constant stream of bad polls must affect the morale of Labour MP’s. Anything Gordo tries to put thro the HOC now must be suspect. What reason do Labour MP’s have left to remain loyal (apart from NPMP) to McDoom??? How long can it last…..
54- sean fear- spot on,
Labour 2009= Labour 1979- working class support- popular leader (Sunny Jim)
The left cull of all cull awaits. You must be licking your lips
Are the MP`s on holiday when the expenses are released on the 1st July
To be fair to RodC I’m pretty sure that he’s right that the Conservative lead at the general election will be lower than their biggest poll lead, which at the moment is 28%.
79 PAtrick email me at msf10@hotmail.com and I will enlighten you
158 Dunno yet. Too far out from the election. But because of the low turnout in 2005, far more Labour seats are vulnerable. Look at the numbers of votes and turnout, rather than the % majorities. Labour’s 150 seats with 20% majorities doesn’t mean much when people turn out in big numbers.
But I’ll put some hours in nearer the time. I did get the Tory seats in the 1992 election to within 2….
I think there is a serious possibility of Labour polling sub 20 in Euros.
watch our for the flying nokia
Norwich 0 Reading 2. Plymouth and Forest 10 minutes away from being safe.
re 167. Richard - that’s hardly a big prediction from Rod. I would agree with that too - it was obviously an outlier.
153 -
I’ve looked it up 2009 26.6
2007 26.1
increase 0.5%
107 - I already did at 15, but I’ll do it again here, I apologise.
Casinos view on this latest poll.. (sung to the tune of Good King Wenceslas)
Ha ha ha, ha ha ha haaaaaa, ha ha ha ha HAAA HAAA!!!!!!
@172: Woohoo! Forest avoid the drop! Thankyou, Reading.
172 - hasn’t my week been bad enough?
Sorry to intrude as I’m about to; I’ve got to have a crossword finished by tomorrow, before golf with my boss at 6am…
Whenever I’ve posted clues here before they’ve been solved very quickly. I guess there are a fair few others here who can do them so I’m hoping for a bit of help
I (for once) haven’t read the thread and would like to butt in with the occasional clue, pretty much as I write them. I’ve got 12 clues left to go and would appreciate any help from the cryptically minded out there who can spot any mistakes in them or help improve them I’d be most grateful!
I’m going to try and write them at the same time as watching the thread as ‘live’ as I can so I’d really appreciate any replies just starting ‘JJ’, so I’ll be able to spot them
If, Mike, you’d prefer me not to then do please just say so but I’d really appreciate the help!
first up…
A mountain? Ha! ( 5 )
160. But who is the replacement. Im doubtful about Dermot Ahern, hes been about too long, Coughlan is well under fire and is the punchbag at the moment, O’Dea? Surely not.
Lenihan despite being the bearer of crap news, is curious. Noel Dempsey maybe?
170 I agree and I suspect that figure will represent what the true ‘core’ (Labour voters who will come out and stay loyal under any circumstances) Labour vote is.
I’m beginning to wonder if we are all missing something, could the budget measures fail? If so it would bring down the government. Byers has come out against it, Field is unhappy etc. There must be a risk at least?
Mark Senior reality check
William Hague’s Conservatives consistently took seats off Labour and put on vote share in hundreds of by elections between 1998 and 2001 - but it made bugger all difference to the General Election results in June 2001.
The same will happen to your party - Accept it and move on!
162 It always amazes me that you attempt to denigrate byelections in major cities such as Sheffield Manchester and London with the mythical Little Snoring . It is also puzzling that you attribute poor local results for the Conservatives every week this year to local circumstances and there is never a byelection in which the local circumstances are favourable to the Conservatives .
It is notable that the Conservatives have been putting a great deal of effort into many recent byelections , the 2 Manchester contests for example and yet their results are still pitiful .
169 - good point. Consider also that many Labour supporters in safe seats may choose not to vote in protest whilst thinking that it won’t affect the result.
And it is very difficult to appeal to these people at national level without publicly throwing in the towel.
Mark Senior, can you please stop saying Penis. It’s weird. Yes I know it’s part of the name Penistone, but please. Families read this site.
Grow up.
And finally. Some truly sobering news:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8021603.stm
Swine Flu may hit Wales. It hasn’t yet, and there’s no sign it will, but it MAY. It may HIT WALES. Thankfully, the Welsh authorities are getting a grip, and the Welsh Health Minister is liaising with similar authorities in Rockall, Lundy and the back of Tescos Car Park.
But still, questions must be asked? Why Wales? Was the whole Pig Flu Thing just some plan by Mexican BIO-TERRORISTS to ATTACK WALES? These people in the Yucatan care nothing for human life, just so long as they can GIVE PEOPLE IN PORTHCAWL A SNIFFLE.
A sobering thought. And on that note I must retire.
@182: Surely there aren’t 34-odd Labour MPs who would vote it down? That seems a little bit of a stretch.
One massive difference in local elections - it is not Brown v Cameron that is at stake.
184 Little Snoring is a village in Norfolk, it isn’t fictional.
That being said, its no bellweather either
Seriously, if the polling is on this scale, who will Labour have left to lead them after an election defeat? On these figures, Jon Crudas goes, John Denham goes (shame - as I warming to him), Jack Straw goes, Tessa Jowell goes (yes, I know ..but I seem to remember her being tipped as a leader once in this board).
It only seems to leave Harriet Harman…or have I missed something?
Jon C
Gains/losses councillors on previous May local elections
2006
Con +316
Lab -319
LD +2
2007
Con +911
Lab -504
LD -246
2008
Con +256
Lab -331
LD +34
Total
Con +1483
Lab -1154
LD -210
Councils
2006
Con +11
Lab -17
LD +1
2007
Con +39
Lab -8
LD -4
2008
Con +12
Lab -9
LD +1
Total
Con +62
Lab -34
LD -2
I wonder how many times over the past three years Mark Senior has predicted upcoming disaster for the Conservatives on the basis of a local byelection
187 - Doesn’t necessarily need them to vote against an abstention is as good.
121
As SeanT says Patrick you should be well familiar with that feeling. After all, like me you are a Hammers fan. We are used to the idea that things should and could have been better.
“They ride so high,
nearly reach the sky.
Then like my dreams they fade and die”
170- I’d agree with that. Lower turnout; more likely to protest vote.
If I was to guess the Euro Election percentages I’d say: CON- 41%; LAB- 18%; LDEM- 15%; UKIP- 7%; GREEN- 5% BNP 5%; NAT 4% OTH- 5%
184.”It is notable that the Conservatives have been putting a great deal of effort into many recent byelections , the 2 Manchester contests for example and yet their results are still pitiful .”
Mark, if you cannot see the value in that, then what the hell has your party being doing all these years? I await to see if the penny finally starts to drop on this, and when it does, you start to understand the kind of polling figures the Tories are now commanding in comparison to your own party.
Your complacency is breathtaking.
106 Rod, every single subset poll in the last 4 months has had the Scotish Tories up around 20% or better. That is 5% up on 2005. As we gain votes like the LibDems in battleground seats rather than everywhere the effect in key seats will be more interesting. This is also the first GE campaign I can remember in 22 years in which we have had candidates in all key target seats for more than a year more than a year before the election and constituency associations working hard on the ground. In addition we also have more councillors in most of our key target seats than at any time for 20 years and indeed we are running or are major coalition partners of the councils which cover a number of them.
It doesnt matter if we dont put on any votes in the SNP-Lab battlegrounds but it will be crucial in the seats where we have a chance. In summary we have more foot soldiers where it matters.
182 - interesting thought. When the Tory budget was rejected in the mid-90s there was a clear remedy - scrap the increase in VAT on fuel.
Can’t see it here though - not least because there isn’t a single issue around which opponents can coalesce. And however disastrous Brown is, I can’t see them wanting to force an election before he’s been removed.
@187 - OK, even 65-odd abstentions plus a couple of votes against still sounds unlikely. However, even *some* abstentions could be seriously damaging for GB.
167. Or half that. The biggest lead since the War was Thatcher’s 15.2% in 1983.
186
I follow some of the disaster preparation group forums and a number have picked up on the news from Mexico that the authorities are claiming the source of the virus was a large scale US owned food company in Vera Cruz.
I won’t name the company on here since it might be liabelous but if it turns out to be true I expect a lot of fallout on the US.
Forest are safe!!!
194. OK, one final remark. I don’t think UKIP will do 7%. I think the mood is very anti-Labour - but UKIP have collapsed in media profile, and most eurosceptics have now realised that the only way to get some of what we want, re Europe, is voting Conservative.
Plus this is the first potential Conservative government, ever, which has been thoroughly sceptic from the start.
I believe Cammo will mop up lots of UKIP votes. So you can take 2 or 3 points off UKIP and give them to the Tories. IMHO.
199 polling methods were different then , the figure cannot be treated seriously.
@200 WAYHEY! It is a red letter day.
200 - *sobs*
202. What are you talking about? That was the election result!
195 Christins , of course I can see the point in Conservatives fighting byelections hard , the COnservatives do have excellent polling figures but the clear evidence is that this year so far , they are not capable of getting out to the polling booth even those who voted Conservative in 2003 or 2004 let alone new converts . It is your complacency that they will do so come a GE that is breathtaking .
200 Just rejoice at that news…
READING - I WANT TO HAVE YOUR BABIES….!!!!
Norwich and Barnsley to slug it out for the drop on the last day of the season.
Hmmmmm, nothing yet..
How about
Alpha male without mother at bike race, then casualty ( 6 )
I have consulted with my esteemed colleague Ms Blears, who has confirmed that this is in fact a very bad poll for the Tories and clearly shows there is no etc, etc. Meanwhile the Labour spokesperson for PB assured all that cared to listen that due to swingback, no overall majority is the most likely event for all occasions and that it was probably a rogue poll anyway. On hearing the news Mr Senior burst into tears and Roger went ‘wibble’.
On a more serious note, why does the idiot get his ugly chops at the top of the header? It scares the dog and annoys the hell out of me.
Hmm,
I have just made a posting which will slot in at 200 if it clears moderation and which will make the understandable celebrations of Forest surviving look very strange indeed.
Hmm,
I have just made a posting which will slot in at 200 if it clears moderation and which will make the understandable celebrations of Forest surviving look very strange indeed.
199 apologies, I thought you wre referring to a poll. not a GE result
SeanT
I finished your book.
A very enjoyable read with interesting ideas.
Not too sure about the change of attitude of the Kiribali character though (he was initially very hostile to Christine) and why was Christine wearing a crucifix if she was Jewish?
206. Mark Senior.
June 4 will be worth much more than all council by-elections in the 13 months preceding it.
@210: Oh dear. Fortunately, we were saved from total embarassment by several other posts-in-moderation.
139 Mark Senior the GE will occur just about the time the good citizens of villages like Milltimber realise their £500,000+ houses are definitely going to be flattened because the former LibDem transport minister approved the building of a bypass right through the middle of their village. That should focus quite a few thousand minds.
207 MM - Just rejoice at that news…
That might just be going a step too far! Just be thankful that I brought you the result. To show there are no hard feelings, I laid Forest 4 weeks ago at 2.5/1 against being relegated, so I’m a few quid better off myself on tonight’s result!
2006.Mark, my complacency regarding the next GE!! I simple pointed out the value to the Conservative party in working hard in all council by elections with a GE possible less than a year away.
219
Wipes brow in relief.
220 Easterross. A bypass through the MIDDLE of the village !!
196 It is simply not true that every Scottish subset has had the Conservatives at around 20 % or better . The small subsamples cause the figures to vary wildly . A Comres poll in March had the Conservatives at just 9% in Scotland , and the average figure for all Comres and Populus polls from January to March was 15% .
220 Easterross. A bypass through the MIDDLE of the village !!
Did they not want to go right or left!!!
224 - Depends what it is bypassing.
212. letter?
male - ma = le + TT + er = letter.
225.Mark, which seats are the Libdems focussing on trying to hang onto in Scotland, and which ones are going to be left to swing in the wind?
The situation with local byelections is that probably the key determinant is the strength and commitment of the local party. A strong local party will ensure a good turnout of its supporters but a weak one will not.
The problem that the Conservatives have at the moment is that where they have an active local party they have already tended to maximise their vote and so fail to make more headway but where they have a weak or complacent local party they don’t get their local vote out and so might be defeated if one of the other parties makes a strong effort.
At a general election the effect of the local parties is lessened by the higher turnout.
226. Who remembers Rory Bremner on BBC’s election night show in 1992 making a joke about the movement of the swingometer and Paddy Ashdown’s extra-marital activities? It was just brilliant!!
Petition latest: 19,012 signatures, 1706 short of fifth place.
Fun local derbies next season with Derby, Forest and Leicester in the same league again…!
230. another richard: At a general election the effect of the local parties is lessened by the higher turnout.
And the effect of bussing in activists from elsewhere is diminished.
228, b spot on!
how about
Lip cream I applied, by experiment ( 9 )
218 As in 2004 the Euros will bear no relationship to the result of the next GE . I agree that the CC elections will be more meaningful but it will be important to remember that at the last GE in the seats being fought this June Labour only polled 24% of the vote compared to the GE figure of 36% .
Bad news for Cameron I think !! This will surely mean a leadership challenge early summer, then the possibility of much more respectable polling for labour and a very possible hung parliament!! The Tories would much prefer
their lead to stay at 10 or 12 points for the next six months of so - surely ?
232 - Whilst Mr & Mrs Mugabe, Boom AND Bust plus Gordons Mum have helped increase the keep Gordon petition to 14 signatures.
226.Its worse than that, go and have a look at the plans. After years of planning that involved the build up of nice residential area’s, they are going to put a frigging bypass right through it. But don’t hold your breath, we certainly aren’t. When the bypass was announced a few years back, the quickest time scale one local gave was 20 years.
Check out the Stephen Nicoll Holyrood result in 2007, and he was leader of the Libdems then.
229 Christins , All of them .
237 - That is assuming that the new leader can mitigate the process of being installed and then add to that. I think that a change will harm not help Labour.
235 empirical.
235 thats an anagram surely lip cream I (applied=anagram) empirical
This won’t help Brown is his homeland. From the Herald:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2504622.0.Cameron_puts_the_boot_in_as_Brown_faces_uturn_humiliation.php
236
Labour might have had 24% at the last county council elections in the areas that voted but that was the national equivalent of about 35%.
Likewise when the national equivalents are given in June the Labour % will be a lot higher than they actually received at the ballot box.
224/226 Yes the LibDem TRansport Secretary gave approval for an Aberdeen bypass which will drive straight through one of the most affluent villages in Scotland. People like Willie Millar the ex Aberdeen and Scotland footballer who has built a £1 million+ house will see it bulldozed. This was one of 3 proposed routes.
This decision was more unbelievable given that it is a LibDem held Westminster and Holyrood seat. Many of us who are not members of the SLD do not expect it to remain that way at the GE.
244. Ministerial resignations…why do they need to wait for July to resign over their claims for b*t* plugs?
Empirical of course
Midnight rants where they rip ( 6 )
Re Aberdeen bypass. They built the Edinburgh bypass and Colinton and Juniper Green still exist. Milltimber Brae is the only logical place for it.
245 I am not sure that the BBC will be able to give an accurate national equivalent vote share this year as they do usually . As I understand it they use the same wards each year to monitor the paties’ performance but many of those wards will not have elections this year .
Fraser Nelson sticks the boot in too:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3569316/video-nasty.thtml
248 - Graves
Is the Indy going to publish an article on the poll?
@251: He looks like his own (sadly non-existent) Spitting Image puppet.
Goodnight all, Im off to invoice some clients
249. They bulldozed the bowling club and a cowfield, not multi-million pound mansions, to build the Edinburgh bypass.
234 Empirical - anagram sorry too late!
241. Hmm, not so sure, I don’t think it could get worse - brown has no credibility, perhaps a fresh face could change the media narative and bring back a few core voters …. As I say, it’s a bad night for cameron !!!
graves indeed!
Spread wing for stroke ( 9 )
258 - Yes but having junked 2 leaders in two years, the ammo for the Conservatives to deploy against Labour would be pretty much infinitessimal.
259 butterfly
@259: Butterfly
@261: Oooh. You beat me.
WHO raises pandemic alert to 4 from 3. Not yet actual pandemic but more serious. We remain uncertain about the mortality and morbidity rate. Also outside Mexico we have seen the new anti-viral works.
The good news is that in the UK we are relatively well prepared with enough anti-virals for half the population.
260. Fair point , but I would bet that cameron is praying that brown stays through to the ge !!
123. New Labour has bought into a moronic version of Taylorism….. Trying to replace professional judgement with ever longer clipboard lists.
The problem isn’t giving patients choice. The problem is that because of their addiction to corpratism no real risk is allowed - the risk of being crap leading to no one using the service.
Further to the mentions earlier about Penistone & Stocksbridge, if Shadsy reads this, is there any chance of a market?
251 Have to view this in a different light following SeanT’s “twirly time” notion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS37nnFYzZ0&feature=related
You were both pretty bloody quick!
They’re not supposed to be too hard, I could easily overcomplicate things
Before second, certain second for forces ( 9 )
@264:
Perhaps more to the point, the virus’s virulence for person-to-person transmission seems to be very low.
There won’t be a pandemic.
Perhaps more to the point, its virulence for person-to-person transmission seems to be very low.
There won’t be a pandemic.
Amusing headline
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/04/times-cant-tell-its-miliband-from-its.html#links
Philip Hammond’s superb calm and reasoned response after the Budget.
According to News at 10 BBC.
The PLP are arguing and fighting with each other over MP’s expenses.
Perhaps they’ll decide to ditch the Great Leader after all?
Brown u-turns on expences !!
when the PLP is bickering, the end is nigh
Conservativesat The GE, 49%, LibDems 26%, Labour 19%, others 6%. My winning would amount to over 10K if LibDems take second place. Bet made when Brown toppled Blair.
271. Habib Butt April 27th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
David Miliband amuses me when he does that expression, which gives an observer the impression David has Shat himself and looks uncomfortable!
Was there a PLP meeting tonight, I asked earlier when someone referred to one?
O/T Jury trial. The tabloids now know there is a god…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wear/8021185.stm
278 - Apparantly so and it sounds as if it made Afghanistan and Pakistan look like idylls!
277 - Martin, heh, whenever I see that pic, I always think he’s saying “Trying to fire a Brown out”
I’ve only ever got one cryptic crossword clue
‘Shakespeare on ice’ (4)
Can’t we talk about something easy like quantum physics instead?
Of the Labour MPs almost 50 have decided to jack it in anyway and are demob happy.
264 - I think the more comforting fact is that it seems people treated soon recover well. Only Mexico seems to have any serious illness as a result of this and there may be other unknown factors. Of course, it could still be devastating if it reaches unprepared parts of the world and is just bad enough to kill when untreated, but the evidence of swine flu in pigs is that it hhas very low mortality rate.
Do we know where Nick Palmer stands on expenses? What position is he supporting today?
285
I think Nick has other worries…
284 - Could simply be incubation, maybe it is a heat/humidity impacted strain.
You have to have a parliamentary seat to claim parliamentary expenses.
This may prove troublesome for NPMP.
279. Marquee Mark.
I think she should invoke this at her trial:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPqOx-Smqrc&feature=related
283. TC April 27th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Yes, thats the problem when disapline goes - especially if it has been tough: You think F*ck them anyway!
Lethal and it will just get worse for both Brown and Labour. The Government is completly directionless now! They are just hanging on for a better day and it does not look like that day will come.
FFS - Sky News are having a ‘balanced’ paper review with Stephen Pound and Kevin Maguire!
Bad news for Cameron being dragged somehow from the papers!
291 - How helpful of them!
282 ReBrandedHorse, can you put up with it for a little while so I can get help with my deadline? Would be much appreciated!
Horses that haven’t raced around Syrian leg ( 9 )
293 yearlings?
293 - yearlings
280.James, thanks.
Someone posted this@20, but didn’t respond when I asked if there had been a PLP meeting earlier.
“Near mutinous PLP meeting? The same old same old after the 10p debacle, but today with a triple whammy: botched press conference, Byers’ elephant trap debunking, and second home allowances farce.
Coming apart at the seams as Iain Dale observes. Where is McBride when you might need him?
by Pooner April 27th, 2009 at 8:13 pm”
Any more details? I read today that the Labour Whips office is in near meltdown about the publication of the MP’s expenses, it certainly sounds like Brown was desperate when he put up that Youtube effort despite the review, and before he had bothered to speak to Cameron and Clegg. It looked very much like he was trying to bounce them into backing his proposal’s because he is desperate.
Bah, beat me
297 Shouldn’t that be, nay?
293 yearlings its an anagram
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article6174865.ece
Makes me wonder what was happening at schools before.
297 and me
291.David, that has got to be a joke surely?
At least it was a kinda racing so kinda betting kinda clue!
Jubilee chest found inside drains ( 7 )
296 - It seems Brown is crisis managing a lot at the moment.
300 - Yoof speak innit!
Mp’s expenses on newsnight
crick putting the boot in showing Gordo’s car crash you tube video
300 - “They include how to moderate tone of voice and use appropriate hand gestures and eye contact. ” etc.
Do it all the time, it’s the core of my job. Getting them to write concisely and not waffle is a much bigger problem.
On another subject, just got a leaflet through from my local MP Ann ‘don’t call me Julian’ Milton. *Thirty one* pictures of her on its eight pages, is this a record for leaflet narcissism?
Evening all.
People seem to be getting very excited about this poll, but it just confirms what we already knew - it’s been downhill for Labour from the G20.
As so often, David Herdson says some very interesting things (at 100).
If there is to be a leadership election over the Summer, it’s really going to have to happen after the expenses get published, otherwise Labour might risk losing half their field in-race, rather like the Lib Dems did a few years ago.
Absolutely - we should factor that in to any betting strategy. However, I still think Brown will sit it out.
The Conservatives face decision time. There’s a lot of political capital in the bank at the moment. Spending some of it now by setting realistic expectations about what a future government will have to do after the election might reap dividends in the longer term.
I don’t agree on that. Cameron’s strategy of keeping his options open as far as possible, whilst telling only the truth, is dead right IMO. And we must also avoid complacency - the beast that is New Labour is sorely wounded, it is true, but it can still bite and kick.
I’d also echo what Marquee Mark says at 172:
But because of the low turnout in 2005, far more Labour seats are vulnerable. Look at the numbers of votes and turnout, rather than the % majorities. Labour’s 150 seats with 20% majorities doesn’t mean much when people turn out in big numbers.
We should keep that in mind in any betting on the election outcome.
Sorry to go off topic, but wow
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/christopher_hope/blog/2009/04/27/its_official_hm_government_is_totally_openminded_on_existence_of_flying_saucers
“Gordon Brown silences YouTube critics by disabling viewer comments”
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/the_web/article6182161.ece
Nick Clegg fluffed the last question of his Kirsty Wark interview.
Mike, for once will you reluctantly admit that the Consevatives have it in the bag.There is absolutely no way back for GB et al-the party is simply over for them. The media narrative is as negative as it has been since GB was crowned leader unelected, surely things can only get better for Dave.
James Burdett April 27th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Please say the magic words followed by a lol!
311
from that link….
” Paul Staines, who is author of the Guido Fawkes political blog, said that Downing Street was playing into the hands of Mr Brown’s detractors by trying to conquer the internet.
“They put a load of pictures of him up on Flickr,” he said. “Every Friday morning I scan through the photos on there and find the most stupid one I can. You can just use it to make him look like even more of an idiot.”
Newcastle = tee hee hee
But I still think they will stay up.
309.”But because of the low turnout in 2005, far more Labour seats are vulnerable. Look at the numbers of votes and turnout, rather than the % majorities. Labour’s 150 seats with 20% majorities doesn’t mean much when people turn out in big numbers.
We should keep that in mind in any betting on the election outcome.”
Richard, the same goes for some Libdem/Con seats as well. I was posting about this recently, in Scotland the Libdems are sitting in some seats that have seen turnout down about 10% in the last couple of GE’s.
313 Neil kinnock?
308 ukpaul
“On another subject, just got a leaflet through from my local MP Ann ‘don’t call me Julian’ Milton. *Thirty one* pictures of her on its eight pages, is this a record for leaflet narcissism?”
Far from a record! The French satiric newspaper Canard Enchaine (more or less equivalent to Private Eye) has a regular column called My face everyhwere counting pictures on leaflets. IIRC the record holder had more than 100 in 8 pages!
Anecdote alert:
At a birthday celebration tonight; someone asked had people seen the Gordon Brown video on HIGNFY, general mickey taking of the Saviour of the World, then genuine anger at his proposal (now discarded).
His attempt to grab the high ground and bounce Cameron & Clegg has backfired very damagingly onto him. The Budget is bad enough - note that BBC and others refer now to “the Debt Crisis” as the problem rather that Recession or the Credit Crunch - but becoming a figure of fun and derision is difficult to recover from.
Then today he seems to have turned up in Islamabad without organising things with the Pakistani Government, being fobbed off with the PM rather than President, almost as if no-one knew he was coming. As someone posted it wouldn’t have happened to Mrs Clinton (nor to Blair). We heard a lot post Mandelson’s return that No 10 had become more organised and certainly the briefings to the press was that it was better co-ordinated but it seems to have reverted or even got worse than reported last summer.
Totally O/T, but Brian Blessed, Marcus Brigstocke and Alan Duncan on HIGNFY on Dave now, in case anyone wants to relive the madness…
317.Ave it 09 April 27th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
Yes!
300 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article6174865.ece Makes me wonder what was happening at schools before.
Before people could speak english. Now they are very good at Bengali.
Or half that. The biggest lead since the War was Thatcher’s 15.2% in 1983.
Not forgetting that at that time the Labour Party had apparently split. Which is why although her apparent mandate was high, in practice her command was still reasonably week, and her opposition strong and coming from two sides. While her party was always partially divided between wets and drys, and the BBC was still respected and doing a reasonably good job at keeping an eye on the then current elected dictatorship. Unlike today.
I perceive no such divisions these days within the Conservative Party, for better or for worse.
Also trades union power is as good as done. Not because they have less members, but because a majority of them now have mortgages and credit card interest to pay. These days the public services are so over bloated with useless rubbish, if half of them never turned up for work ever again, the country would work more then twice as happily.
IMO Cameron will have at best 2 years to show that he seriously intends to roll back our ever growing fascist state, or confidence in our representative parliamentary democracy, will be forever shot to pieces.
Cameron can do this VERY EASILY and save billions at the same time.
He should, and IMO must not only stop ID cards in their tracks. He should do what ever he can to bind future governments from ever even contemplating such a devilishly horrendous idea ever again, and under any imaginable circumstances. It would be a perfectly wonderful achievement if Cameron could make compulsory or otherwise ID chips forever constitutionally impossible.
302 - We’ll find out at 11.30. But that’s what I think I just heard. I’m not watching Sky News closely but the TV is on my desk so I think I heard right.
“(As someone of Irish Catholic descent I still believe history (the Tory peers blocking the 1885 Irish Home Rule Bill)”
Yes Patrick and I remember the Irish nationalist Republic refusing to fight Hitler, thereby condemning thousands of Allied sailors to a watery Atlantic grave.
And that’s a damn sight more recent that 1885 (when we did not even have universal suffrage!)
Go ahead and live in your prejudiced historical dream-world.
321 - Martin, Nick Clegg is better than Neil Kinnock but when you are rattling on about MP’s not profiting from their second homes and then get a question about your own second home and whether you will profit, you don’t answer basically ‘not if the rules stop me’.
326 That was laughable, he could have said he would donate the money to charity, but ………….
Have you seen Blears and Grayling calling for Ryan Giggs to be knighted?
316 Christina - Yes, absolutely. If you look at some of the 1997 LibDem gains in southern England, there seems to have been a collapse of the Conservative vote rather than a big increase in the LibDem vote. My hunch is that this will be reversed in 2010.
Hah - anyone seen this yet? Gordon’s techno dance….what an idiot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS37nnFYzZ0&feature=related
324.It would really be a bit of a joke. It used to annoy me that they always harped on about Iain Dale being a right leaning Tory blogger, but I never hear them make that distinction with the likes of Maguire in particular.
327 - It was pathetic. If you want the moral high ground you have to occupy it before you’re told to by someone else.
326. That’s the point!
It is like the interview with the number of Women he bonked or if he will have an affair. Clegg said I hope not!
That is why he is like Neil Kinnock - His presentational skills are dreadful as his his message.
Clegg articulates a confused and contradictory message.
This is a dreadful poll for Labour but I’m not surprised. I had lunch with some advertising chums and not only did they think Brown was rubbish they also thought he was a crook.
I’m afraid he’s only got himself to blame. What is Jacqui Smith still doing in government? If you sleep with dogs you get fleas.
If it wasn’t that a Tory landslide would bring in so much right wing detritus I would hardly care.
329.”316 Christina - Yes, absolutely. If you look at some of the 1997 LibDem gains in southern England, there seems to have been a collapse of the Conservative vote rather than a big increase in the LibDem vote. My hunch is that this will be reversed in 2010.”
Richard, I agree with you on this. I was doing some checking of our target seats recently, and that drop in turnout really struck me, checked some more, and saw a consistent pattern emerging. I had been concentrating more on the majorities, and the effects of recent boundary changes, and I missed that. Its turnout that is going to be the key, and while the Libdems will be hoping to squeeze Labour votes, those voters are not going to be as enthusiastic to turnout and vote at all IMHO.
Mike and others have talked of the missing 92′ Tory voters, and I wonder what they might do to Rod’s swing back theory. IIRC, the last time they turned out in such large numbers back in 92′, there was a Lab to Con swing in Scotland.
331. Maguire isnt a leaning anything, he is just a useful idiot, in soviet Russia he would have been part of the politburo, in nazi german he would have been a proud party member spreading the message, in Cromwells day he would have been a revolutionary roundhead, in Queen Elizabeths day he would have spent time indulging the court. Think of him like Blackadder, he is a worm who ingratiates those who are in power (or likely to be), for no purpose except his own.
What a depressing set of numbers.
It looks like I’ll be packing my bags in 13 months and leaving the UK for good. I could never live under another tory government.
334 - I have to say, Roger, you being so down on Brown shows how fcked his government is.
334 Roger - If you sleep with dogs you get fleas.
Surprised but pleased to see you quoting Lord Tebbit, Roger.
334 “I had lunch with some advertising chums and not only did they think Brown was rubbish they also thought he was a crook.”
Oh no - the Roger focus groups have deserted Gordon! All is lost…
337. Do you want us to hold a whip round for the taxi to the airport?
337 - For some reason, these random words came into my head, when i read your post, “Dont, Let, The, Door, Hit, Your, Ass, On, The, Way, Out”
339. You invoke the great man of yesteryear, can i just add to 337 : “Get on your bike”
@338:
Yes. Heaven forfend that a Tory government might ruin the economy, destroy health and education, be corrupt, incompetent, venal and terrifyingly authoritarian.
Best to vote Labour to ensure that doesn’t happen.
You won’t, it’s fair to assume, be missed.
337. Chorizo Schlong April 27th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Yes Britain is a paradise at the moment that you would be mad to leave unless the nasty wicked Tories get in!
338 and just how hopeless Brown is / has turned out to be.
Pound and Maguire. They said it again. You couldn’t make it up!
337 - Chorizo, where will you go?
Who will have you and what do you have to offer?
340. I reckon Roger is playing a canny game here - hoping to boost Brown by predicting a Tory landslide. Punters beware!
Chorizo
I think your last comment has probably given the Conservatives a few dozen more votes.
337 You would prefer to live under an authoritarian, sleazy deceitful Govt that bankrupted the nation, with a Prime Minister who is a laughing stock?
335, 329, 316: ChristinaD and others.
Considering that older voters tend to vote Conservative, and 1992 was 17 years ago, what proportion of those absent conservatives do you think are “alive” anymore?
350 maybe we could have a whip round and buy a one way ticket to mexico city for chorizo?
@347: Maybe Pound is going to announce that he’s crossing the floor? Err…
347.Thanks David, think I will give it a miss.
337 - With a name like that, i think you should see a psychiatrist. I understand Dolly Draper has some spare time on his hands.
339 “Surprised but pleased to see you quoting Lord Tebbit, Roger.”
I think you’ll Webster got there first in The White Devil in 1612. If I recall correctly (it was 31 years ago) it was Flamineo: “they that sleep with dogs shall rise with fleas”.
Chorizo, what do you mean “again” I thought you were 12.
356 MM - Excellent!
Now to bed…
Brian Blessed so should be the LibDem leader…..
356 well done MM - another 6 easy points for watford next season!!!
353 - Could make for some good headlines if he did.
Brass neck award today goes to Baroness Thatcher. She has slammed the government for their treatment of the Gurkhas. Would have more poower if she had done ANYTHING for the Gurkhas herself in 11 years as PM.
235 Empirical = or has someone already got it??
Where is Tim? I’m expecting a 100quid off him next year
347 - Que? What bad news is in the papers for Cameron that Pound and Muckguire are highlighting?
325. Nonsense. What were they supposed to fight Hitler with? Their three Morris Minors dressed as armoured cars? Their lone spotter plane that constituted the entire Irish Air Force? A few trawlers?
About 100,000 Irish men fought in the Allied cause, and a similar number in the Merchant Service (25% casualties, far higher than the regular forces), who have no grave but the sea…
Many were highly-decorated for extraordinary bravery.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_Finucane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Stephen_Fogarty_Fegen
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Esmonde
Countless more of Irish descent joined the forces, including my own family, one of whom won the DSM on the Arctic convoys…
Irish “neutrality” was highly advantageous to the British, and as the record shows, it was a biased neutrality (i.e. pro-British).
362. Given that Labour have let the world and its dog into this country in the last 12 years what is the problem with letting the gurkhas in?
I read an interesting article recently and apparently 11% of all UK soldieurs come from the commonwealth!
Sky not impressed
many of Gordon Brown’s problems are his own silly fault. He appointed Damian McBride to run a dirty tricks operation inside No. 10, he broke Labour’s pledge not to raise the top rate of income tax and he thought he was being clever with his WebGordon announcement on MPs’ expenses without consulting either MPs in his own party or the Opposition.
Being snubbed by the President of Pakistan doesn’t seem so bad after all.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:6634960e-e534-4785-90bd-5c24e8d40ab4
As far as living in a nanny state goes, I agree Labour is out of control with their authoritarian policies. But I’m afraid governments all over the world, both left and right, have been doing precisely the same things - using fear as their weapon.
Do you believe in father christmas? Because if you do, you probably also believe that the tories will continue to champion civil liberties the moment they get back into power.
I’m currently in Buenos Aires, Argentina. I will not hesitate to move here permanently if the tories win the next election. This country has a lot of problems but none of them will be as bad as the pain and misery a tory government would inflict on the majority of the country.
now read all the other posts - too easy!
@366: It is not often I find myself in agreement with you, RC - but well said. I have Liverpool Irish relatives who were also on those Arctic convoys, of whom I am extremely proud.
Does anyone else think it feasible that Gordon Brown’s war room team are looking at the Swine Fever outbreaks and thinking that an outbreak in the UK would mean they could postpone the June elections? Foot and Mouth allowed Tony Blair to postpone elections; with the Civil Contingencies Act Gordon Brown could do more, much more.
I’m sure the assembled herd will want to wish you all the best in your new life.
Speaking of which, where the flip are the bots? They’ve been on radio silence for days. Have Tim, Gabble and Andrew B all been laid off/laid low with Swine Flu?
369. As far as my point about civil liberties goes, David Davies resignation over detention without charge last year says everything you need to know about the true tory position on this. He had to take a personal stand because his own party would not properly support the commitments he wanted to make on this issue.
372 - I’m sure the thought has never crossed their mind!
365 - There is an article in The Times saying Cameron plans an all-male attack team to take on Brown. I’m sure there will be lots of “evil sex1st Tories”
It’s the only thing I can think of.
Chorizo Schlong April 27th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
How the F*ck would you know if you don’t live here?
Labour have done nothing for me - An unemployed individual. Pain and misery is a funny thing you talk about. Is making a country a viable economic concern painful or miserable in the long run? It is an utter basket case at the moment and Labour have the solutions equivalent of Nerve Gas.
The country is better off without you! Please don’t come back!
373 no we have got our civil liberties powers in early - no labour allowed on this site anymore!!!
Next stop LDs…
373 - Dont complain, things have only got better without them.
‘http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2W3yJF_FflA’
Hope the link works, for Dolly fans everywhere.
O/T Rome tennis, good win for Rochus today. The other two matches (tips Gasquet and Granollers) are tomorrow. I also fancy Zverev to put up a good fight against Berdych. Zverev beat claycourter Ramirez-Hidalgo and Ferrero in qualifaction for this tournament and Berdych could be caught cold. I’ve backed Zverev with a +4.5 game handicap at 5/6 with http://www.willhill.com which is generous. He’s serving well and I fancy him to push his opponent all the way.
334 Roger - continuing the dog metaphors. A poster on one of the media blogs said (something like) “McBride was a pit bull…what type of person keeps pit bulls”.
Gordon Brown wasn’t some innocent who fell into bad company, he was the guy who sought out their company. Until recently I believed in Good Gordon and Bad Brown but now, like Parris, I think there isn’t a Jekyll & Hyde but just Mr Hyde. I said he would disappoint but I didn’t realise just what type of character he was.
Seems a ridiculous Times splash on lack of prominence of Tory women in Cameron’s team - apparently on the basis that there are no women in his treasury team.
Paper reviewer on News 24 was saying how there are ‘only’ seven women in shadow cabinet. That doesn’t sound bad to me out of 17 women MPs.
He then surpassed himself by saying Cameron ’still’ has only 17 women MPs, as if there had already been a General Election since he promised to increase female representation.
Sounds like a bizarre non-story on a day when Swine Flu is the obvious lead everywhere.
Perhaps not all the Murdoch stable of papers are in the bag for the Tories yet, after all.
And remind me why is Muckguire even been given the time of day, let alone shifts doing the paper review?
Chorizo - so it’s Argentina - home of civil liberties
Next time you go to the funfair in BA, think of all those “disappeared” who are buried in its foundations…
@374: I think that is wholly unfair.
The Tories voted against the motion, but the government carried the day by a small minority (i.e. Labour members voted it through against Tory opposition).
David Davis felt that this was unacceptable, and could not stand without a further protest, hence his forcing a by-election (whatever the individual merits of that choice).
What else were the Tories supposed to do?
376 - Who wrote that story for The Times? Harriet Harman? The Conservatives should put their best economic team up, regardless of gender. Also isn’t Theresa May part of the wider economic team in the sense that she is Shadowing Work & Pensions?
366 and 371. My late grandfather was a Republican Socialist from the same tradition as Jim Larkin. He was in the Merchant Navy in the War and was at Dunkirk and served on the Atlantic and Russian Convoys. He was very proud of his service and used to love telling me and the other grandkids about his service. After the War he became an Irish Labour member of my local council and was briefly it’s leader.
It’s true that thousands of Irishmen did volunteer to serve for the British military, many of them had been from families which had long traditions of military service before partitions. Others signed up seeking adventure, to escape the poverty of Ireland in those days or out of conviction that fascism must be thought. Until recently the Irish government shamefully ignored them, thankfully in the changed times we now have people are able to recognise what they achieved.
372. And Stalinist Brown would have no compunction in cancelling all elections and civil liberties because a couple of people start sneezing.
I thought Cameron was already pushing the women / ethnic minority issue with “fudging”, I mean prioritising of the candidates for upcoming seats in the GE?
368.Scott, that is pretty damning from Jon Craig.
369.”I’m currently in Buenos Aires, Argentina. I will not hesitate to move here permanently if the tories win the next election. This country has a lot of problems but none of them will be as bad as the pain and misery a tory government would inflict on the majority of the country.”
Chorizio, how old are you, and do you have any memories of the 80’s?
Surely your best spoof yet?
368 - Interesting to note that Craig is saying that Gordo employed McBride for dirty tricks / smear operation, not employed him as an attack dog that got out of control! No allegedly, no maybe, it is a firm Gordo employed him to be Chief Smearer, thus suggesting that Gordo’s claim of “I nay knew noootinh” is a lie!
Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum doing paper review. Meanwhile the crazy claim is David Cameron is not promoting women because he only has 7 in the Shadow Cabinet!! FFS Margaret Thatcher had none!
369- Mr. Schlong, you might as well save yourself the trouble and expense of a return flight and just stay there in Argentina. The writing is on the wall.
@391:
There has to be at least one man and one woman in the final selection vote or open primary for Conservative PPCs.
Given the independence of associations, there’s not much CCHQ can do to force us to adopt female candidates if we don’t want to.
369 enjoy your life in Argentina. You will not be missed
Would the cabinet be weakened by having no female members?
Discuss.
394. Has that spanner, Pound, reported the computer hacking to the police yet? Or was that another unsubstantiated claim that is typical of this rotten government?
398 - Depends on the women. I mean any cabinet would be boosted by having someone like Margaret Thatcher in it.
@398, 400: And the men.
398 (cont) - Or would the shadow cabinet be weakened, and what would the public prefer, if they did they traded some male Tories for Smith, Blears, Harperson, and Cooper?
398.I doubt it, especially if those chosen are the most able and deliver.
LOL
Shocking. Really, really shocking.
McGuire has just said Noreen Dorries is mad. He was reminded she is suing McBride
Revenue to pour quarter of its £4bn budget into battle against tax evasion
HM Revenue & Customs is to spend £1 billion on enforcement and compliance this year to cut tax avoidance and evasion by £2.4 billion, Britain’s most senior tax collector said last night.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/tax/article6182126.ece
WTF are they going to be doing? Sending everybody in the IR to Cayman Islands, Panama, Bahamas, etc for 2 weeks to “research” tax evasion?
Cowards emigrate in response to the election of a government they don’t like.
*Real* men blow their heads off with a shotgun, like Hunter S. Thompson.
405 - He might to watch what he says, not sure the Mirror can afford these days to settle big libel cases as a result of his big mouth!
Surprised he didn’t just go the whole hog and say well somebody in the Bell and Anchor in South Shields told me that Dorries……
405 - oops McGuire, not a woman to be trifled with methinks…
SkyNews shameless Labour proganda - Calling a certain Tory MP mad was wrong though.
Nothing she has done could possibly be construed as Mad and indeed Pound and Mcquire should appoligise as the issue they (Labour & smearers) usually refer to her as Mad on is anti- abortion. There is nothing mad about. Personally i think it disgraceful that Pound and Mcquire behave in a masoginistic way “Metaphorically beating their cheasts” about an issue that should not be joked about.
Labour and McGuire really are scum.
Maguire looks shiftier every time he goes on TV.
More important FO advising all Brits to avoid Mexico unless essential and VISA office in Mexico City now closed until further notice.
Good night all. These t0ssers are laughing at the Countess of Arran and a story about her butler. I guess she isn’t another of Harriet Harpy’s aunts.
@406:
Let’s be honest. Who here *hasn’t* entertained the notion that Ms Dorries might be ‘a couple of seats short of a majority’?
405.”McGuire has just said Noreen Dorries is mad. He was reminded she is suing McBride”
Easterross, that is exactly the kind of comment that would make me uncomfortable with him being given airtime right now after being in the loop with regard those emails. Nadine isn’t able to respond.
Easterross April 27th, 2009 at 11:47 pm
He did not retract his comment either.
He also contradicted what he was saying about lack of women being in the shadow treasury team by saying one member was removed because she was useless.
Mcquire was well out of order and it is time he is made accountable for his links to the smear campaign and his comments in this evenings Press preview.
“What else were the Tories supposed to do?”
Blow their heads off with shotguns? Hold their breath in protest until they went purple?
@416: Scream and scream until they were sick? I imagine that the HoC cameras would be firmly on Mr Speaker in such an eventuality.
413.I haven’t, she is a bit of a charactor and adds some colour to the Tory benches. I don’t agree with all her views, but I also don’t think she deserved what she got from McBride etc.
Wonder if Mr Staines has anymore dirt to dish? Building up the budget he seemed to be hinting at more stuff, just wondering if we are going to get some more action, maybe May Bank Holiday?
Still a huge amount of loose ends with the Smear-Gate story.
Suppose it depends if Hispanic Flu turns into a pandemic.
413. Martin Coxall April 27th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
No, I am sorry I don’t agree.
Frankly Mcquire was just trying to smear her outragious.
415.”Mcquire was well out of order and it is time he is made accountable for his links to the smear campaign and his comments in this evenings Press preview.”
I agree, and the content of his blog and that comment is pretty disgraceful in light of this. IMHO, it shows a breathtaking level of arrogance, only matched by those he hangs around with these days in the Brownite bunker.
418. Pound and Mcquire just came across as masoginistic pigs!
They not just contradicted what they were saying but were lousy at it as well.
@419:
“A bit of a character”?
Yes, that’s a more polite way of saying the same thing.
@421:
Trying to smear her what?
http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en-us&q=mad+nad&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
The Sky news review was three of a kind as even the ‘anchor’ has regularly demonstrated her credentials to be admitted as a Nulabour luvvie. Odd as even Kay ‘givus-a-kiss-Gordon’ Burley seems to have cooled down a bit.
Very acrimonious PLP meeting today, apparently. Openly anti-Broon. Ooh, look. He’s on the other side of the world saying heroic stuff.
421 - I suppose Muckguire arrogance is born out of the fact that it is clear at the very least he had some knowledge of SmearGate and was involved in those meeting about RedRag, but nothing has come of it. He still has his Mirror job, Pravda and Sky are still using him, no wonder he is arrogant, he probably thinks nothing can knock him off his pedestal.
I expect No 10 is buzzing tonight thinking up ways for their dear leader to declare he’s saved the UK from swine flu even though he’s had nothing to do with it here as health is a devolved issue. This is something he’s sure to get his teeth into - with a little help from his beloved Mr Watson et al.
Nothing he does now will help him gain the public’s confidence. Nothing at all.
421. Yes - He has tried laughing it off - I don’t think what he seemed to be complicit in is any laughing matter. When he said they attended a meeting and then went to the pub early - I thought, some of these folks are on taxpayer time in the middle of a slump……
Then we get an idiot (above) living in south america saying he could not stand a Tory government!
Surely with the latest Brown fiasco on expenses he has absolutely no authority left at all. You really wouldn’t want an invitation to a party in a brewery from this man would you?
@430:
Maybe instead of answering Dave’s questions at PMQs, he should just do ‘twirly time’ for half an hour.
It might gain him a point or two.
Gordon Brown’s conduct of the second homes fiasco has been so inept and baffling that the only conclusion it is possible to draw is that he should prepare to move house: out of Number 10. There is a window of opportunity for removal early next summer.
…
It illustrates that Brown is lurching from crisis to quick fix and back again. And those in the machine which is supposed to support him are over-worked and over-tired. The machine which supports the PM is misfiring badly, probably because he is demanding the wrong things from it. Round and round his team goes, in ever decreasing circles.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/04/27/brown_heading_for_new_home_after_second_home_uturn
427.Prodicus, any more details? Keep getting cryptic comments, but no real meat on the bones?
Why we are talking of Muckguire, no wonder he “nips down the pub early” on lots of occasions, what exactly does he do for the Mirror?
He isn’t chief political editor, he write an occasional blog of a few hundred rubbish words (of no special insight or use) and his proper pieces for the paper are just rehashes of government press releases.
When you look at the work say Waugh at the Evening Rag gets through on his blog (which still by most peoples standards in the real world isn’t exactly real work) it is chalk and cheese.
432. Martin Coxall April 28th, 2009 at 12:03 am
Brown would be useless at that as well!
I can feel a new picture for his blog coming on!
As much as it pains me to say this, Mr Schlong has a point — I cannot be *certain* Cameron’s Conservatives will have a better approach to civil liberties than Labour.
What I *am* certain of, however, is that they *could not possibly* be any worse, just as I’m *certain* that New Labour has illiberalism in its DNA.
re 372 F&M predated the Civil Contingencies Act.
434 Cristina - nothing more. Details awaited.
437 - Well the likes of no to ID Cards, no to interweb snooping database, no to child database, no to DNA kept on record if no prosecution, not bad for starters!
This poll confirms what should now be apparent to everyone- that, however many new policy announcements are made, however many relaunches, this government is holed below the waterline. Finished. The pendulum has swung back big time!
We will soon be rid of the worst government in British political history, and it won’t be a moment too soon. I can’t wait to see that arrogant swine Brown taking the beating that is coming his way.
Rejoice! Rejoice! Rejoice!
372. Yes. The possible downside for Labour is that they could probably defer the elections but not necessarily delay them until 2010. Then there would be even less time for Labour to stage a recovery before a 2010 GE.
441. Is there a single reputable UK News organisation that has yet to publish a “come in No 10, your time is up” story?
Interesting to note Clegg on Newsnight this evening, basically saying that Brown doesn’t listen, he won’t listen, he can’t listen, he can’t understand any other point of view. Nothing knew, but absolute damning stuff really and Clegg was still trying to be nice about the meeting!
Unfortunately, Comedy Clegg made a tit of his argument by saying that no MP should profit from increase in value of a 2nd home paid by the taxpayer, but then tried to waffle out of saying he would give up any money he made, because there wasn’t a rule in place to say he should.
Serious question: talk of Labour wipeout is premature.
Why?
Either
Labour will recover, as forecast by swingback theory
or they won’t
…in which case…
Gordon will go, and under a new leader
Labour will recover, as forecast by swingback theory…
Gordon doesn’t “do” elections, and if he knows he can’t win, by going he will at least be able to say he never lost…
447 - Doesn’t look like he does votes in the HoC he might lose either!
@444. This might not be the worst British Government of all time; but it is definitely arguable - you can’t just dismiss the suggestion out of hand.
Test
@448: If Labour replaced their leader now, I don’t think things would get better for them - it would add to the impression of incompetence and general thrashing around while the economy goes to pot.
The Tories would have an obvious line of attack whoever followed, and the succession would be a bloody contest of smear and counter-smear.
Not that I subscribe to the Labour Wipeout theory; although I think the Tories will do better in the marginals than previously such that even a smallish UNS will deliver them a majority, at least some of the large lead will be vote-banking in their 2005 marginals, or base-building in seats *way* down the target list that they still won’t win (this time).
re 450 I’d say there’s no argument about it at all. Brown even makes Lord North look like a confident statesman.
@453: Ah. Worst *prime minister*. Yes, I think you’d have to go a *long* way to find a more ineffective, miserably useless PM.
“Michael Brown: Is this the end of New Toryism too?”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/michael-brown-is-this-the-end-of-new-toryism-too-1675202.html
“There won’t be a pandemic.”
Cut out and keep - Martin Coxall’s declaration at #271 could be this website’s “Michael Fish” moment.
It also reminds me of Matthew Parris’ absurdly complacent performance on Question Time a few years ago when he claimed to know better than the experts and that a bird flu pandemic was simply never going to happen. OK, the primary source is pigs not birds but the principle is the same - I wonder if Parris feels quite so confident about his prophetic powers now?
And how on earth did we get from nobody having heard of this two days ago, to two confirmed cases virtually on my doorstep this evening? Ah well, at least it got Nicola Sturgeon twenty seconds on the network news.
“Scrap ID cards now, say Cabinet rebels”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scrap-id-cards-now-say-cabinet-rebels-1675168.html
Just what was the purpose of Brown’s trip to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Just to get him from underfoot, a sort of long range news sandwich to keep him calm?
When the Pakistani President will not be seen with him in public and the squaddies clearly squirm in embarrassment, what is the point?
Does he think if he rushes around the world everyone will go, ‘Ahh, what a statesman. We shall forget the smears, the lies, the bankrupting of the nation. He is great after all.’?
He looks a decidedly dodgy number, and all he can deliver in both places is platitudes with a lot of spin about troop numbers which unravelled in minutes of him opening his mouth.
What a waste of money, time, effort, hope. Unalloyed self deception.
re 448. I agree with Rod on that. I can’t see Brown fighting an election if the polls stay like this.
RodCrosby’s interesting electoral fact #99.
Despite widespread tactical voting in 1997, only eight Labour gains could be positively attributed to tactical voting, and they were all located in Essex, London, and the Nothants/Bucks border…
Hands-up who knew that!
re 456 we still don’t know whether there will be a pandemic. It doesn’t seem to be particularly morbid. The Americans reckon that zanamavir is likely to be more effective than oseltamavir, so if so we’ve stockpiled the wrong drug.
From the front page of the Times online:
Pupils aged 11 to learn about gay sex
Review proposes compulsory sex and relationships lessons for 11-year-olds and sexual infections classes for secondaries
Crying out to have a comma added, if you ask me…
re 457 No - there will surely be riots on the streets if such a measure were enacted. Nick P would have to rip up his party card when he couldn’t be taken back to his old roots in Communism. I’m sure he’s dying for the first opportunity to be stopped and asked “Your papers, please”.
Red Meteor I am confused as to your point. Bird Flu was nasty but not a human pandemic. I agree with Martin C that this is not, so far, much different. indeed as the transmission seems to be from personal contact precautions can be more through. With the birds it was much more difficult to keep tabs on it all.
There is some difference between cases in Mexico and elsewhere. In Mexico there have been deaths of a significant number while cases elsewhere seem to be milder. No-one seems to have any idea of why that should be so.
Whether this develops as the virus mutates remains to be seen but so far even WHO are not calling this as a full blown pandemic, just a risk of one which went a notch higher today. But there job is to blow the warning trumpet not to win a competition in estimating the final position.
But have no fear Cobra has met twice so far with you know who joining in from a distance. So we must be safe. The Daily Mirror says so.
463-
Damn. I hate anyone confusing ‘there’ and ‘their’, myself included.
The post as 466 makes no sense as the original at 464 is in moderation for some unfathomable reason. And to make matters worse, when I try to add an edit to the post which did appear in order to say this I get the edit box, make the edit and then it says I do not have permission to make any changes.
Now that is irritating.
Don’t seem to be able to post about tami_flu (had to spell that way to get through spam filter) and article on 2 Mar in Scientific America saying he had proved useless against all flu outbreaks in the US so far this season.
Nice to know!
Don’t panic Captain Mannering!
Red Meteor I am confused as to your point. Bird Flu was nasty but not a human pandemic. I agree with Martin C that this is not, so far, much different. indeed as the transmission seems to be from personal contact precautions can be more through. With the birds it was much more difficult to keep tabs on it all.
There is some difference between cases in Mexico and elsewhere. In Mexico there have been deaths of a significant number while cases elsewhere seem to be milder. No-one seems to have any idea of why that should be so.
Whether this develops as the virus mutates remains to be seen but so far even WHO are not calling this as a full-b;own pandemic, just a risk of one which went a notch higher today. But there job is to sound the warning trumpet not to win a competition in estimating the final position.
But have no fear Cobra has met twice so far with you know who joining in from a distance. So we must be safe. The Daily Mirror says so.
This originally at 464 but held in moderation.
Unsuccessfully tried 4 times to post something innocuous in the past hour or so…
# 456
Nicola had 18 seconds on radio and then sharply cut off. The BBC of course.
468 - got that up, anyway.
Red Meteor I am confused as to your point. Bird-Flu was nasty but not a human pandemic. I agree with Martin C that this is not, so far, much different. Indeed as the transmission seems to be from personal contact precautions can be more through. With the avians it was much more difficult to keep tabs on it all.
There is some difference between cases in Mexico and elsewhere. In Mexico there have been deaths of a significant number while cases elsewhere seem to be milder. No-one seems to have any idea of why that should be so.
Whether this develops as the virus mutates remains to be seen but so far even WHO are not calling this as a full-blown pandemic, just a risk of one which went a notch higher today. But there job is to sound the warning trumpet not to win a competition in estimating the final position.
But have no fear Cobra has met twice so far with you know who joining in from a distance. So we must be safe. The Daily Mirror says so.
NB: third and last attempt, being bloody minded and not wanting to give up, and not because I think this is in any way a particularly historic post.
Third attempt to post a harmless comment on health etc foiled each time.
Has the spam filter gone feral?
Any idea why the system block the second attempt, tells me it thinks I have already posted it, and still does not put it up?
Any idea why the system blocks the second attempt, tells me it thinks I have already posted it, and still does not put it up?
ARGH
474-
Wish me luck, chaps. I have a few hours work on the paper tomorrow. I’m bricking it. It might be a chance to keep my job past the summer.
Another 3 job applications in this week though, I’m still hoping to keep things in my own hands!
476-Good luck!
David Roe your last clause of your last sentence is certainly in Sun headline territory.
Good luck, and good night.
True! Thanks guys.
32. I find that a tad “racist” (I know it’s such a loaded word!), since the last time I voted Labour was the London locals in 1998!
460. RodCrosby.
How many of the LDs’ gains were?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2399352.ece
Somne stories are just a bit sad
479.All the best David, good luck.
Yesterday, Socrates thought it preposterous to imagine Obama being described as a socialist (even though a major American leftie news mag now takes pride in declaring we’re now a socialist nation). But today, we discover that the government really is set to take over the country’s biggest car company (can we now call it Government Motors?):
“US taxpayers would take a majority shareholding in General Motors under a sweeping debt-for-equity restructuring proposal that the carmaker revealed on Monday in a bid to avoid bankruptcy.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a5326d50-332a-11de-9316-00144feabdc0.html
The government taking over the means of production: socialism, here we come!!!
482.That is tragic! I bought that well known baby food bible when I had my first child, it was easy and healthy to cook home made meals in batches every week.
Petition update: 20,062 - 667 away from the top five.
481. Sixteen
485 - I feel a bit sorry for her, she must be thick as swill. How did it come to this?
484. “Yesterday, Socrates thought it preposterous to imagine Obama being described as a socialist”
I’m glad to hear Socrates has taken on the baton of pointing out the blindingly obvious - it’s a thankless task but someone’s got to do it!
488. I feel sorry for her mainly for what the Sun have just done to her.
490 - I do wonder how the story and pictures got to the paper to be honest. Who sold her out? Or did she sell herself out?
thus suggesting that Gordo’s claim of “I nay knew noootinh” is a lie!
by Oracle April 27th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
Oracle-are you from planet earth??
Brown welcomed by troops
http://subrosa-blonde.blogspot.com/
129 “The East Ecclesfield result on Thursday will confirm that it is the LibDems in poll position in Stocksbridge/Pen1stone.”
I wouldn’t be so sure. East Ecclesfield had a decent LibDem performance last time and there is every reason to believe that people will be voting LibDem there to keep Labour out. There are certainly indications that people will vote LibDem locally but Conservative in the generals in East Ecclesfield.
In the entire constituency, it’s a still dead heat race (Labour defending / Tories and LDs attacking) - and I still think the Tories will win it if they maintain a good performance nationally.
The Liberal Democrats should concentrate on Sheffield Central.
17 If you are the Lib Dem’s you have to be really worried, Saint Vince of Cable is on Pravda seemingly every single day, and to most casual observers much of what he says seems very sensible (the flip flopping etc isn’t brought up by the Beeb). So even after all this free positive press exposure, the LD don’t seem to be picking up much support from all the angry natural Labour voters.
by Oracle April 27th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Oracle, I shared a platform on Sunday with Philip Augar, an ex-City man, who has written Chasing Alpha, a sceptical, scathing and rather brilliant book on why the City crashed. He made a point I’ve never heard before. He said that Clegg failed to get behind Cable in 2007 and 2008, and turn Vince’s attack into a Lib Dem attack. If Clegg had been more daring, the Lib Dems would be benefiting now, as it was he behaved like a normal politician and hedged.
473. “Red Meteor I am confused as to your point. Bird-Flu was nasty but not a human pandemic. I agree with Martin C that this is not, so far, much different. Indeed as the transmission seems to be from personal contact precautions can be more through. With the avians it was much more difficult to keep tabs on it all.”
Witan, I’m confused as to your point as well! I never suggested bird flu was a pandemic. I was simply pointing out that if the current outbreak becomes a pandemic, Matthew Parris would have been wrong in his complacent assertions (unless he’s going to argue that origin of the virus somehow makes a huge difference). I also think you’re missing the point about human-to-human transmission - that’s the whole reason why this is very different from previous bird flu outbreaks, and has the potential to become a pandemic. Avian flu would never have become a pandemic until there was sustained person-to-person transmission.