Poll: Labour loses half its 2005 voters
April 28th, 2009
Can they be won back by the election?
Tucked away in the detailed data of the latest ComRes poll is one scary statistic for Brown Central.
A total of 240 of those surveyed said they had voted for the party that was then led by Tony Blair in 2005 - Yet over the weekend when the fieldwork was taking place only half of them, precisely 120, told the pollster that they planned to do so next time.
This is the full split of the 240 Labour 2005 voters:-
120 (half) voting Labour again
41 (one sixth) voting Conservative
15 (one in sixteen) voting Lib Dem
7 (more than one in forty) voting SNP/PC
6 (one in forty) voting Green
4 (one in sixty) voting BNP
5 said they were voting for another party
Remainder saying “not voting”/”don’t know”/”won’t say”
ComRes allocates 100% of those saying they will vote but refuse to say who for in accordance with the party the respondents say they most identify with - a measure that generally boosts the Labour share.
There was, of course, a little bit of seepage from the Tories and LDs but nothing on the scale of Labour’s 2005 voters. In fact the total of Tory losses on 2005 was dwarfed by the other votes that it was picking up.
There were, of course, others in the survey who, for whatever reason, did not vote in 2005. Of the overall party totals that make up the headline figures nearly a quarter of all the Labour vote came from 2005 non-voters. The Tory and Lib Dem shares consisted of only one in five who had not voted in 2005.
I have long argued that the non-voting in 2005 segment of the the sample are the ones that you can least count on.
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First
first
Ouch…game over for Labour (if we didn’t already know that)
Just the one “scary statistic”? I see a whole load of them and it is hard for “Brown central” to avoid one very scary conclusion:
In twelve months the Labour Party could come third…
Parallels what happened to the Tory vote in 1997 and after doesn’t it?
I seem to remember a PB post about how in 1997 it wasn’t so much a jump in the Labour vote as a couple of million Tories not turning up.
Crikey. Mike is there previous data on this sort of stuff. Perhaps we can see when these old Labour voters decided to stop voting Labour.
492 [last thread], sarcasm?
ComRes allocates 100% of those saying they will vote but refuse to say who for in accordance with the party the respondents say they most identify with - a measure that generally boosts the Labour share.
I’ve been saying for ages that this methodology could introduce a systematic pro-Labour bias into the polls, given that we know there has been a big change in the underlying proportions of support.
It could be worth quite a number of seats.
re 5 & 6. Alas, pollsters have only been providing us with this extra detail in the past couple of years so I have no comparisons
I’ve always thought that a ‘too young to vote sub-section’ might be interesting for ComRes. Almost 10% of those in the weighting total fell into the 18-24 section AND didn’t vote in 2005. Only a quarter of that section were old enough at the time. You have to assume that half of those that couldn’t vote last time will do next time. Don’t you?
5 Which is why the real horror for Labour will not be their lost 2005 vote going elsewhere, but those lost Tories who voted for no-one marching to the polling station next time…
Seriously, Labour to be smashed into sub-atomic particles whenever the GE happens.
10. That 25% figure assumes even distribution of age within in 18-24 band of course.
question reposted from previous thread.
re the resign petition on the no10 website, does anyone know how it is updated? It seems to have been stuck on 22642 for some considerable time now.
by Don(the other one) April 28th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
9 - Mike, that’s a shame, Hopefully my prediction that Labour gets pounded like a dockside hooker at the election looks like coming true. If it does, the PB party after the next election. I’ll buy everyone a round.
The Petition has now passed Bolton and Portsmouth’s average crowds for this season.
Next milestones:
23,146 - Blackburn Rovers
24,194 - Fulham
24,755 - Hull City
11
Its not only lost Tories IMHO , its hard core Labour voters who voted in 2005 who wont vote at all.
Gordon is doing his very best to alienate his own party judging by the PLP meeting last night
11 - And indeed, the single largest group of switchers to the Conservatives come from “didn’t vote last time” if I’m reading the tables right.
The times news paper story of women taking a back seat in camerons party and the supposed freebie to south africa are non stories,me thinks the new labour supporters of the press are getting desperate.
14 “If it does, the PB party after the next election. I’ll buy everyone a round.”
Buying everyone a drink is generous - but buying everyone A ROUND? Wow, that is generous. You must really hate Labour…
From the Press Asociation earlier today:
WHO taskforce which decided to raise its alert over the virus to level four, said four in 10 people could be infected if the country is hit by a pandemic.
But Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain was “among the best prepared countries in the world” and added that the Government was taking “all the urgent action that is necessary” to help prevent the spread of the virus.
Mr Brown also said he will take part in a meeting of the Government’s Cobra emergencies committee.
Damn, that’s another cup of coffee all over my keyboard!
Can you really believe he actually said such things or could it just be someone at the PA taking the p1ss?
15 crikey MM, Fulhams crowds are up about 6k on last yr , they used to get about 18k for an average gate last season IIRC. but then again, we are now 7th in the league with a Euro slot chance, and not facing the horrors of relegation like last season, and with a Manager who ought to be Premiership Manager of the year..
20 Fulham have a living god for a manager. That helps….
15. Yes, it’s still going strong. How many have signed the counter petition so far?
18. It was a pretty intellectually dishonest story.
18
Much more important!!
Is this Dave?
http://londonersdiary.standard.co.uk/
13 - It updates periodically. I’d say its generally been around every 5-10 minutes but seems to have been stuck for a while now.
Still, “Ivor Broquen-Printer” has signed the Gordon should stay petition along with the Pakistani President.
24 - Just updated. 22,838 now
23. Could be massive if true. Imagine the kudos from young voters - expect the Con share of the <30yo’s to go up !
10. MS. Actually turnout in 2005 (estimated) for the 18-24 category was only 37%.
24
Funny that I asked if he had (The Pakistani President) earlier in the day…..
21/22 Indeed it will be an absolute travesty if Hodgson isn’t awarded Manager of the Season.
19 - Oh, hate is a strong emotion, I don’t hate Labour, i despise Gordon Brown, as someone who works in pensions/finance/law, I know how badly he’s ruined the system. So yes I hate the party who allowed him to become leader without a contest.
Plus, I have a bet with a Labour person from my old work,who back in October 2007, who bet me £2000 that Gordon Brown would win the next general election with an increased majority.
23,so what if it was,more street cred,if I was cameron,I would’nt deny it,if it was him ?
23 No its not. On both counts.
28 - Yeah, that’s why I mentioned it. His name is definately there, just under Nick Robinsons.
What a change all these discussions are from those that I saw when i first joined the site before the 2005 GE.
Back then, there was serious discussion that the Conservative party might disappear in a “metdown” if they lost another election badly, to be replaced by a LibDem/Labour axis.
And we took it all so seriously, as well!
30 “I have a bet with a Labour person from my old work, who back in October 2007, who bet me £2000 that Gordon Brown would win the next general election with an increased majority.”
This, er, colleague of yours - could you put me in touch? I have a couple of London bridges I’d like to sell him…
30- Maybe you could be merciful and offer to cancel the bet if he’ll pay you £1999 now.
Mike - please will you lift the moderation on my post at 1.54pm - it’s surely non-contentious, comprised mainly of a PA news release appearing on Yahoo! News.
If there is a sample of 240, then this suggests a Scottish & Welsh subsample of 31 (5% Wales & 8% Scotland). Of these 31, 7 are now switching to PC/SNP - That spells trouble for Labour….
(Is that a 22% swing or a 11% swing?)
So, Ravey Davey. Is it him or no?
It looks a lot like him. But a Tory? In *dungarees*? I don’t believe it.
35 - To be fair, this was at the height of the first Brown bounce.
36 - I have offered to settle the bet with him for £1000, he’s pondering it.
re 34. Yes - the “meltdowners” dominated the site from June 2004 until May 2005. There was a fantasy that all the Tory votes would go to UKIP which, as I arghued would happen, did not come about.
Is the core vote coming back to Labour?
If it is and they’re still only on 26%, they really are in trouble.
8 RN
Is there any means of taking into account ‘Amnesiac’ voters: people who voted Labour last time but tell the poster that they voted tory?
41 - Mike. That isn’t all that clear. I am reading you correctly that you argued that it wouldn’t happen aren’t I?
40- You’re a very kind person. I can’t believe he didn’t kiss your feet for such a generous offer.
42 How do these polls deal with protest? If someone had called me during the McBride affair I would probably have said I was voting for someone else just to make a point.
23 Not according to what Tamzin Lightwater told Guido.
I cannot understand why the ‘peasants aren’t revolting’.. so to speak..
43 bono - Presumably you might be able to detect that if the polling was done in the same way over a long period; you’d see a steady decline in the number who say they voted Labour last time. (I think Anthony Wells had a post on this topic ukpolling a while back).
I don’t know if it would be significant, however.
40 Ponder noun A unit of time, being equal to 0.00000000000000001 of a nanosecond
Also Pondering verb To take a ponder to make a decision that is f*cking blindingly obvious….
re 452, but runnymede, Sophia herself was 83 in 1714 and only missed out by a matter of a few weeks from becoming Britain’s oldest and shortest reigning monarch.
Since my earlier post at 1.54 appears inexplicably to be caught up in the spam trap, here it is again:
From the Press Asociation earlier today -
WHO taskforce which decided to raise its alert … to level four, said four in 10 people could be infected if the country is hit by a pandemic.
But Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain was “among the best prepared countries in the world” and added that the Government was taking “all the urgent action that is necessary” to help prevent its spread.
Mr Brown also said he will take part in a meeting of the Government’s Cobra emergencies committee.
Damn, that’s another cup of coffee all over my keyboard!
Can you really believe he’s being accurately quoted as having actually said such things or could it just possibly be someone at the PA having a laugh?
50 - Perhaps he’s hoping that quantitative easing might have a highly inflationary impact.
52nd
Dayum!
On topic, I think Labour could get a decent chunk of the non-voters back if the economy was getting noticeably better by the election. (Which I don’t think it will be.)
Christ on a bike! Labour are doomed, DOOMED I tell yer.
@52:
British flu for British workers.
49 RN
Many thanks
I’ll see if I can find that article
58 Martin.
!
Obama has often been compared, and has compared himself, to Abraham Lincoln. But can you imagine Abraham Lincoln saying this: “I have a gift, Harry” (spoken by Obama after being congratulated by Sen. Harry Reid for a good speech, as revealed in Reid’s new book).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_reid_obama
Not sure if Obama is really so gifted? Just ask Obama, he’ll tell you.
58 VERY GOOD!
Great piece Mike!!
This is exactly the kind of post that makes PB.com such a great blog.
- “Of the overall party totals that make up the headline figures nearly a quarter of all the Labour vote came from 2005 non-voters.”
You know, that one sentence ought to strike terror into the ’souls’ (sic) of Labour Party strategists.
All of us who have ever canvassed, and fought on-the-ground campaigns, know that NON-VOTERS DON’T VOTE. (OK, there is the odd exception to the rule, but so unusual it is not worth bothering about.)
ie. if you want to win any election, you must identify the people who actually turn out and vote.
If a quarter of Labour’s voting intention figures are coming from non-voters, then they are going to be in the mid teens at the June Euros.
Oh my word! Look everyone, Pravda are actually reporting a poll!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8022432.stm
*faints from shock*
27. Really that low, even with Iraq factor. Wow, thought it was closer to 50 than that. Probably not important to consider that demographic until there’s an Obama figure that inspires them then!
64 - That piece on the face of it appears to be in breach of the BBC’s guidelines on reporting polls.
1 in 16 people who have caught swine flu in Mexico have died. IF 4/10 people in Britain contracted the virus that would (on the same mortality basis) kill 2.5% of the population or about 1.5m people.
Is that credible?
re 58 Perhaps one of the many Jewish contributors here could answer a discussion I was having with a colleague this morning. If you catch swine ‘flu are you ritually unclean for the duration?
Scraping the barrel……The Leader of the opposition went to South Africa 20 years ago, and might have been to a rave.
You know that your enemy is on its last legs when the bullets run out and they start using catapults.
Personally I worry most about politicians that didn’t enjoy themselves when they were younger. If they are all as clean as they pretend to be, it would explain where the neopuritanism comes from.
Part of me thought ‘what on earth are the BBC doing?’ when I read this story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8022432.stm
It seemed so completely unlike them. And to be fair, they do at least report it - and in its own story to boot. However, notice that they don’t mention the last two YouGovs; they compared it with the Mori and the ICM, both of which were earlier and produced smaller leads. When you look at the trend, those two polls are off kilter with the last half a dozen or so. Is this their way of pretending this ComRes is a rogue, rather than what appears to be the norm? After all, they are comparing this with two pre-Budget polls…
69. The line of the article seems to be that the budget was bad for Labour, so the pre-budget comparison makes sense.
66 antifrank - what do the guidelines say?
The relevant BBC guidelines are here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialguidelines/edguide/politics/reportingopinio.shtml
In particular: “we do not headline the results of a voting intention poll unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it.”
71 just been looking at it
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialguidelines/edguide/politics/reportingopinio.shtml
In case this has not been noticed, for those interested in Welsh politics, a few of the areas Labour focuses on look in trouble.
The Assembly Llanelli seat (held by Plaid) has the Labour 70 yr old and in another Assembly seat (Independent) the previous Labour candidate has resigned from the party after 44 years as a member..
“it was confirmed last week that Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Rhys Williams, had quit after writing a magazine article in which he said he hated the Welsh speaking community,”
http://tinyurl.com/cohxbr
Hat tip http://www.aberavonneathlibdems.blogspot.com
23 Coldstone- I saw Cameron energetically dancing to an Echo and the Bunnymen gig a couple of years ago. Like me, Cameron is the rave generation, starting out as an Indie boy, then possibly being enticed by all the pleasures of hedonism, and yes there are many pleasures.
Thank goodness Cameron has experienced a thing or two. Part of his charm in contrast to the rather charmless Gordon.
SWINE FLU BACK INTO BRITAIN!!!!
Why did they let him onto the plane in Afghanistan?
41. The meltdowners were certainly in the ascendant when I first started reading the site - they were almost entirely Lib Dems, and the site itself often resembled a Lib Dem fantasy-zone at the time.
But it was nevertheless 1000000000% better than ‘vote-2005′ which was the genuine article in that regard, composed overwhelmingly of Lib Dems screaming about how they were going to win every seat in the UK.
First Steven Byers, and now another Blairite outrider…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8022945.stm
Smoke signals are coming thick and fast..
Who will take the hint first ?
Ed Miliband ? Harriet Harman ? Or will it be Heffalump Clarke himself ??
What do others think about the proposition that Brown is so ‘welded’ to the Prime Minister’s job, that the only hope of getting him out is for the PLP to decide on a SINGLE alternative candidate, rather than having a field of 6 or 7 being whittled down over a 2-month period where the ‘challengers’ would eventually have to ‘fold’ for fear of the damage being caused to the Labour Party brand and party unity ??
61. Not the most diplomatic thing to say. But would it have been more honest for him just to think it?
74 Labour don’t seem to have adapted well in Blaenau Gwent do they?
“Hedley McCarthy, the Labour group leader, said: “John hasn’t been his usual happy-go-lucky self since losing the leadership. As for Lynn, I’m not sorry to see him go – he can have a free transfer….”
@75:
I agree with all of that. But dungarees? Really?
Charles Clarke critises Gordon Brown amid open Labour decent:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/MPs-Expenses-Ex-Home-Sec-Charles-Clarke-Warns-Reforms-Very-Damaging-For-Gordon-Brown/Article/200904415270679?lpos=Politics_First_Poilitics_Article_Teaser_Regi_0&lid=ARTICLE_15270679_MPs_Expenses%3A_Ex_Home_Sec_Charles_Clarke_Warns_Reforms_Very_Damaging_For_Gordon_Brown
75.
“I saw Cameron energetically dancing”
What else has he got in common with Jacob Zuma, we wonder?
@83:
Landslide victories?
82. The row over reform of MPs’ expenses has been “very damaging” to Gordon Brown, according to former Home Secretary Charles Clarke.
Looks to me as with Buyers etc they are mounting a challange!
82 dissent????
Nothing but the best for Tessa Jowell, such spending in these times is appalling
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23682105-details/Jowell+gets+a+14,500+new+office/article.do
83. They’re both great fans of Nelson Mandela?
The true acid test as to whether a leadership contest will ensue is if Telephone lines and connection enginers are seen outside NP’s house as he challanges for his destiny!!!
83. Crushing majority ?
From last thread TED
“So Salmond pays taxpayers funds to a charity of his choice, why doesn’t he follow the established process to pay it into the Treasury to help pay off the national debt? Its taxpayer cash, pay it back to taxpayers.”
The rules do not allow him not to take the salary, hence the reason he donates it to a charity. This has been investigated ad nauseum in Scotland to try and pin something on Salmond , all to no avail.
34.
“the Conservative party might disappear in a “metdown””
does that mean losing all their council seats in Newcastle, Manchester, Liverpool, Sheffield…. whoops they’ve done that already.
Actually,the Tory Party has disappeared into the BliarChamereon chimera of vaccuous presentationism.
The Blairites do now seem to be giving Brown a shoeing on a daily basis now. Discipline gone to hell. Captain’s lost command, they’ll be breaking into the liquor store soon. Ship’s heading for rocks.
86. Maggie Thatcher Fan April 28th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Shocking, maybe Brown is trying to pick the Blairite insurgency via postal votes in Erith and thamesmead!
Mike, I have a post in moderation. I cannot understand why, unless we’ve been banned from talking about the flu pandemic. I did use the ’s’ word and I’m not apologising to any silly Muslim or Jewish people who think that’s offensive.
Looking at the detailed data and shedding the “did-not-vote-last-time” crowd doesn’t really change the headline figures much. Turns it to:
Con 45, Lab 25, LD 17, Oth 13.
Slightly surprised - I thought the effect would be larger. Ho hum.
Surely the message coming out from the Blairites is that ‘If you put yourself above the parapet and criticise Brown openly and show your disloyalty by mooting a leadership contest, there will be plenty of ‘air cover’ from the dispossessed and never possessed..’
87.
So the Fan of Nelson Mandela went on an Apartheid-sponsored freebie to South Afrika? Is Zuma any more a fan of Mandela than he is of Mugabe?
I guess the flight down under took the boy David away from the uselessness which caused Ken Clarke to demand he was ditched when the Lamont lament was sounded.
91, wage slave, I think that most people are interested in which seats they win at the next election, not the ones they lost at the last one. If you think that the tories will make no inroads into parts of the North I feel you may be very disappointed.
90
I am not a fan of Salmond politically but he must know his opponents are pretty desperate if the only thing they can attack him on is the fact he gives his salary to charity!
Its a very strange world.
92.
The Blairites do now seem to be giving Brown a shoeing on a daily basis now”
Isn’t that what Tories are MEANT to do with a Labour PM?
wage slave - I think you get still get 1 MP for a rural seat AND a grim northern inner city one.
If Cam wins 350+ who cares which ones they are ?
Last night, I suggested that a suitably qualified expert might think outside the box as to the possibility of Labour winning seriously fewer than 200 seats at the next GE and Mike’s thread above sort of touches on the same topic.
It would be very dispiriting for those early sub 200 merchants, like myself, to be proved correct yet to lose our bets as a result of failing to recognise just how bad it could become for Labour.
I mentioned last night that there are some very tasty odds available for those prepared to punt on Labour winning fewer seats than is generally considered feasible.
Victor Chadler’s offerings appear particularly generous as follows:
175-199 seats……….5/1
150-174 seats………12/1
125-149 seats………25/1
100-124 seats………40/1
For those who prefer wider seat bands Hills have the following odds, which have recently been shortened but are still very good value imho:
0-149 seats………..10/1
150-199 seats……….7/2
98
Don
You have to understand Wage Slave. His whole political world is being demolished brick by smoke stained brick. It is not surprising he clings to past glories.
100. Not like the LD’s who give Labour a shoe-in at every opportunity!
ILLiberal Democrats! Supporting Labour most of the time!
http://nickcleggneilkinnock.blogspot.com/
98.
Don’t be daft Don. Macclesfield is more Tory than Middlesex, Wilmslow more so than Winchester or Watford. The big Met Conservative situation is more a function of the continuing sickness of the Tory Party in those particular areas (and the berks they let run things) than any ‘Northernness’.
wage slave 2:53 pm “The Blairites do now seem to be giving Brown a shoeing on a daily basis now. Isn’t that what Tories are MEANT to do with a Labour PM?”
No, that is left up to the “united” Labour party.
83 Can’t wait for Dave to start singing “Bring me my machine gun”!
Then we’ll know he’s serious about reducing the number of MP’s….
Incidentally, to show just how rapidly things have been deteriorating for Labour, we had this article just over a month ago:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/03/23/will-we-see-a-brown-bounce-iii-before-the-election/
We had one poll this month with a Tory lead of 9% so I suppose there is still time for the April 09ers to prove correct. But I doubt you’d get many people betting on April 2009 now.
Looking at the variance between the 2005 vote share figures and this poll is extrapolated it would give the following projection of total vote figures for Great Britain of something like this.
Lab 7.2 million (-2.3m) 23%
Con 14 million (+5.2m) 45%
LD 6 million (+50k) 19%
Other 4 million (+1.9m) 13%
Turnout approx 69% (matching the derived turnout figure in the poll)
Of course it is a very small sample in one poll and it is not likely that that will be close to the General election outcome, but it does, I think demonstrate if this becomes a ‘get the b*stards out’ election the sort of way it could pan out with Labour falling back considerably against all the other parties
Just for fun I ran it through Electoral Calculus and it came out as follows.
Con 438
Lab 147
LD 36
Con Majority 226.
Ah well we can all dream…….
103 - Richard, You’re wrong: the absurd wage slitherer is a LibDem from the usual rancid stock.
95 - Surprises me too. I had a quick look at it, without going back to the raw data, and got a similar result:
C 46 : Lab 25 : Lib 17
However, it may not be a huge difference in terms of vote share but on electoralcalculus it increases the majority by 30.
95 Andy - If there were a systematic one percentage point over-statement of Labour in the polls, that could make quite a difference to seats (depending on how close the parties are).
90 Nothing stops him from giving it back to the Treasury. He may have to take the cash but anyone can donate cash to pay off the National Debt.
I agree Salmond isn’t acting badly - just stirring a bit.
Ted - thinking of Salmond’s expenses, it will be interesting to see what Gerry and Martin have been claiming off the state.
116. If you mean the Sinn Fein lot quite alot! I was surprised they claim for London flats!
109.
“83 Can’t wait for Dave to start singing “Bring me my machine gun”!”
More in common with Zuma than even I would consider?!
“rancid stock” - the Mark Senior Dissdent Wing.
119 - You may say that, I couldn’t possibly comment.
107, wageslave, sorry, your post does not appear to make any sense. Have read it a couple of times and still cannot see the point you are trying to make, care to try again (not being sarcastic genuinely do not understand what point you are trying to make)
118. wage slave April 28th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
I know which part of the Commons I would like to take it too first!
122. Oh, and I suppose anyone who objects to that is illiberal, Martin?
116 Had a look at Theyworkforyou
McGuinness - £21k ACA & £21k Incidental expenses
Gerry - £21k and £21k
Noted that Gordon’s clever wheeze did say that Northern Ireland MPs would be exempted from loss of ACA and replacement by attendance allowance. “Stuff their mouths with gold” perhaps?
Had a look at Mr Clegg’s entry, was interested to see he was reported as:
Has never voted on a transparent Parliament.
Has never voted on equal gay rights.
Has never voted on laws to stop climate change.
115
Is it actually possible to simply give money to the Treasury if you don’t owe it to them? Knowing the bureaucratic nature of the givernment I wouldn’t be surprised to find there is some sort of law against it.
121.
The point Don is that, contrary to your suggestion, I have never suggested that Tories will not make inroads in the North. I know precisely where they will make such inroads (and where they will not).
99 Richard, from memory I have never heard the Scottish Tories tackle him about his salary. They disagree with him about grown up issues not ones beyond his control. Then again the sole Scots Tory MP follows the same line and does not vote on English only legislation.
I have just caught up with the last thread and only on PB could a thread debating the virtues or otherwise of the Chairman of Celtic Football Club morph into a fullscale debate on the ancestry of the Royal Family. Towards one half of the population of Scotland are blood relatives of the Queen and that ignores all those also related trhough the Bowes-Lyon family. It is rather fitting that our Scots-German queen is seen around the world as being the epitome of Englishness. Only in Britain is such a thing possible.
I could not believe my eyes reading Rod Crosby on the last thread. I think of him as Peter Snow not Tim Nice But Dim. Rod has shown himself to be a rabid leftie and not the cuddly but bookish LibDem many of us have taken him to be!
Dr Reid is a great debater but his great secret in Government was to move departments like musical chairs before people found out he was no good at mastering his portfolio. I have heard from some civil service contacts in the past that he was a nightmare to work for.
He will not give up his position as Chairman of Celtic or indeed his accummulated directorships. Too much to lose.
Rod betrayed his complete lack of understanding of how the Scottish Labour Party operates. Reid wouldn’t sell Brown an elastoplast to stop the bleeding if Brown’s life depended upon it. If Reid takes on some role pre GE it is because there is something in it for Reid. Like the late Robin Cook, Reid hates Brown. The inner cabal of the Scottish Labour Party has more in common with the Court of the Borgias.
Time is now running out and there may be moves to oust Brown but unless he suffers a genuinely serious illness (send for Miss Marple) Brown will go nowhere. He believes he is going to lead Labour to victory at the GE. He will truly believe it. That is his greatest problem.
104 PfP - I think sub-200 is possible, sub-150 is getting into implausible territory. OK, if the party completely loses discipline completely you can imagine that it might happen. However, I would guess that you’ll still be able to insure against that possibility closer to the election at reasonable odds, if it comes to that.
In the meantime I’m using the spreads as my insurance policy against Labour deteriorating further than I’m expecting.
127.
“Dr Reid is a great debater”
Cunningly-masked euphamism?
Mike
Why not some postings about the Euro and Local elections which are on 4th June. These will be the biggest polls of all.
101. Richard - “Salmond… must know his opponents are pretty desperate… “
Yupp. The word “desperate” sums up Mr Salmond’s opponents pretty well.
And desperate people make mistakes. Such is life.
123. Jack Peterson April 28th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Of course!
You can disagree but object to a Joke!
LD’s say all sorts about Tories and Labour but if anyone jokingly points fun at LD’s they go nuts, piss their pants in fury and go way over the top!
That’s why I actually enjoy doing Nick Clegg = Neill Kinnock website more than a Labour one!
Much better sport/fun!!!
R5 Simon Mayo show had a half hour about Unite & Labour party. Same as the thread on here from last week which was based on a posting on Labour Home.
The Professor Gregor Gall was presented as a union expert. Not said that he was ex-Labour and a member of the Scottish Socialist party. So he defended Unite’s right to do what they do…..
Claimed that Unite helped 2m of its members get involved in politics! Well as in have their money taken from them and shoved into propping up the Labour party - without a vote!
114, Richard Nabavi.
Agreed - and it would march with my personal (unscientific) polling preference: take the latest ICM poll and switch one point from Labour to the Tories. Try it - it’s scarily accurate for the last three elections (since the Great Methodology Change).
(For reference: GB voting shares:
1997: 31.4/44.4/17.2
2001: 32.7/42.0/18.8
2005: 33.2/36.2/22.6)
125 Occasionally people leave cash to pay the National Debt in their wills or are consumed with guilt for not paying tax in the past and volunteer to give some to HMT. There is a convention that all cheques and donations sent to it are cashed and the money put in the Consolidated Fund.
Nicola Sturgeon really is very, very impressive.
126, so your point is that the tories will not make inroads into parts of Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow etc. Well thanks for the enlightenment. Here is a clue for you Labour will make no inroads into Chelsea and Kensington, so I repeat what is your point, there are pockets of unthinking electoral sheep at both ends of the Country.
131.
Salmond is the most effective UK Party leader at the moment. Almost in Vince Cableland.
131 Desperate & tired - the Great Expenses Video is the result of people over stressed, desperate to regain control of agenda and too tired to think properly.
131 Desperate & tired - the Great Expenses Video is the result of people over stressed, desperate to regain control of agenda and too tired to think properly.
Anybody else find it interesting that we have had TIM Bot silence since Gordo has been on his travels, gets back to Europe today and we get a quick TIM Bot smear on previous post then silence again….
Wonder if the TIM Bot will be in full flow in a few hours when Team Gordo get back to the bunker?
135
Excuse my plebby ignorance, but what is this ‘Consolidated Fund’ of which you speak?
138 - I was with you until you embarked on your second sentence. Then you decided to be silly again.
O/T but I did find this article on Labour Home very (if unintentionally) funny.
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2009/4/27/20354/0128
Betfair - Party Seats Line
Con 353 - 356
Lab 218 - 220
LD 47 - 50
SNP 13.5 - 14.5
PC 3.5 - 4.5
DUP 5.5 - 7.5
The Home Office has been accused of colluding with online ad firm Phorm on “informal guidance” to the public on whether the company’s service is legal.
E-mails between the ministry and Phorm show the department asking if the firm would be “comforted” by its position.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8021661.stm
Caught red handed again! Do we trust them with our data?
140, ted, Iain Martin certainly thinks so,
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/04/27/brown_heading_for_new_home_after_second_home_uturn
132. Martin, you made that “joke” forty minutes ago, and no one has taken the bait (except perhaps myself). Doesn’t that invalidate your argument a little bit?
I see Noddy Dorries isn’t taking Muckguire “Mad” smear lying down, really lays it on thick on her blog. Not sure the likes of Muckguire have realised that she hasn’t got anything to lose and a lot to gain, women scorned and all that!
“Apparently, Kevin Maguire described me as mad on the Sky paper review last night. During the 80s, Kevin, during his days as the labour (as in work) correspondent for the Telegraph, and mine as a businesswoman, was the very first journalist to interview me. He certainly didn’t think I was mad when he frequently telephone-chased me for information to pad out his column.
In my experience, I would say that if you ever see or hear a man calling a woman ‘mad’, take a closer look.
As an act of kindness, may I suggest you whisper in his ear that there are tablets available for such problems these days, and maybe it’s he who needs to visit a doctor.”
138. yes he is. it is a shame really that his main aim is a divisive one, to weaken the union, while less capable politicians deal with the big issues.
142 Its the state bank account in the BoE.
see Wkipedia for more info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consolidated_Fund
Petition update - 23,276
Blackburn Rovers (23,146) has already fallen.
Next up - at 24,194 - is Fulham.
136
I agree. I would also like to give a very rare bit of praise to the government (well it had to happen one day). Up tread someone mentioned Brown’s claim that we are the best prepared country in the world to deal with a possible pandemic.
It is worth noting that this is not actually Gordon’s claim but that of the WHO who list Britain and France as the two best prepared countries in the world.
I remember just a couple of years ago when the bird flu panic was at its hieght and it was revealed that we only had enough anti-virals to treat 1 in 10 of the population. Now we apparently have enough to treat 50% and that is increasing all the time.
Once in a while even the worst of governments can get things right and it looks like this is one of those occasions.
When it happens even opponents should be prepared to recognise this and give credit where it is due.
146 Oracle - Yes, and the other very strange thing is what on earth are the Home Office doing apparently giving free legal advice to a private company? In my company, I’ve always had to pay for legal advice.
152 - And it looks like the other ones going to have to have another clearout in a minute.
It really says something about Gordon Browns position at the moment that the petitions section of the Number 10 website has just become a place for the public to take the **** out of him.
99. I was being ironic. Oh well.
@138: Yes, that David Cameron’s lot most be really disappointed with the parlous position he’s put them in right now.
The answer is… As much chance as the Conservatives had at winning back the momentum of change in ‘97…
132.
“That’s why I actually enjoy doing Nick Clegg = Neill Kinnock website more than a Labour one! ”
I think you would be rather more effective doing a Labour website.
138. It’s remarkable how Vince Cable’s titanic personality has had no discernable effect whatever on his party’s ratings, isn’t it?
155 Bagehot in Economist has a column saying that in UK politics that seems to be the main impact of the web - destructive humour/criticism.
“The internet hasn’t yet made a politician in Britain. But the comic relief it affords bored office workers is helping to finish off poor Mr Brown. ”
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2009/04/laughter_and_forgetting.cfm
Looks like “Dave the Raver?” story is gaining a bit of momentum, Daily Rant has the story now. Obviously the Daily Rant play up the illegal aspect, the alleged drug taking at such events etc. Interesting though all the comments posted are “So what” and “good on him”.
I wonder if people views on things like affairs and dabbling in drugs at a young age really is “I don’t give a monkeys” these days, rather than being hung, drawn and quartered for it as in the 80’s /early 90’s?
This is of course if it is Dave, the pictures for me are far from clear, the nose and mouth seems quite different when compared against current photos of Dave. In comparison to the Bullingdon ones, seem even more different / unlikely, but given the quality of the footage impossible to tell.
on the subject of the BBC reporting the Com Res poll it always irritates me when in response to a poll a writer says “this would” give X party a majority of X seats. There is no certainty about how a percentage of the vote will translate to seats (as discussed here many times). I do wish writers used terms like “is forecast to” or “could”.
157.
Portillobot warning!!!
“David Cameron’s lot most be really disappointed with the parlous position he’s put them in right now.”
The present Tory poll position is rather more the fault of Gordon Brown, Jacqui Smith, Peter Mandelson, Tony McNulty, Alistair Boring…..(and a little help from the odd Lib Dem)
************ QUESTION FOR MIKE ***************
Mike,
Are you aware of anymore polls to conclude this month ? Don’t we ususlly get 2 ICM Polls ?
160.
“Vince Cable’s titanic personality has had no discernable effect whatever on his party’s ratings”
The man clearly has a personality. Unlike the child underpant model GideO.
When has a finance spokesman’s personality ever affected party popularity? Clearly didn’t work with Gordon Brown under Blair’s labour. Otherwise they’d have been behind the Official Unionists.
Another great piece,MS and sparkling contributions from RN,PfP.Thanks to Stuart Dickson for posting the Line prices.
On the Line my early idea was to get a feeling for SNP and Plaid Seats.Then I tried to Buy Labour and the Lib Dems with no success.
Finally I abandoned Labour completely but am a fierce Buyer of LD.
There are only two questions left.
1.Is it all over for Labour ? Answer YES.
2.Can Labour still produce a worthwhile ‘dead cat bounce’ at any time between now and the GE ? MAYBE.
*** Free Money Alert *** Free Money Alert *** Free Money Alert ***
Copeland Constituency (Cumbria)
A straight two party fight between the Conservatives and Labour (with the LidDems quoted as being 100/1 i.e. no hopers)
Baxter currently forecasts this as being a TORY gain by a margin of 4.6%.
Hills offer the Tories at 11/10
SkyBet offer Labour at 6/5
This represents a level return of 7.27% over the 374 day period until the likely date of the May 2010 General Election or 7.10% on an annualised basis. OK, it’s not going to make you rich but maybe it’ll pay for some fizz on the big night!
159. It’s funny you should say that but the Clegg Website has had nearly three times the traffic of the Brown one!
148. Jack Peterson April 28th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Not really PB ‘went down’ and as two of you have bitten!
LD =
You should not take yourselves so seriously!
153.
“Brown’s claim that we are the best prepared country in the world to deal with a possible pandemic.”
Just as he claimed we were “the best prepared country in the world to deal with the credit crunch.”
Ascencion Island is suddenly becoming a popular airline destination!!!
168.
“Baxter currently forecasts this as being a TORY gain by a margin of 4.6%”
and what do they offer on Westmoreland???
Garbage in: garbage out. Baxter lovers should stick to soup.
Will Brown be back for tomorrows PMQs, or will his visit this afternoon to “Outch Witch” mean he cant get back in time?
168 - I thought about doing that at lunchtime. But then I thought I’d rather just have all my money in that seat on the Tories, so that is what I decided to do instead.
141,
Tim don’t go travelling. He only ever leaves his grubby bedsit to buy Loo Roll (”The Labour Gazette”)
@164: Oh, please. I’m more than willing to accept that a considerable part of the Tory lead is down to the crashing incompetence of the government that you outline, but this *very thread* shows how two things are happening:
1) Labour voters are deserting Labour (that’s the bit you allude to)
2) Tory voters who had previously left have been remotivated to come out and vote Tory
So, at least two things had to happen:
a) The veil had to come off, revealing the government for what it is
b) Cameron had to negotiate a precarious journey back towards the center without getting booted by his party like the previous encumbents
Whatever your opinion about the acceptability (or indeed reality) of Cameron’s politics, you have to admit he has managed his part of the electoral recipe very effectively so far.
174 - I reckon he gets the Mirror too, can’t miss his hero Muckguire articles! Taught him everything he knows about smearing!
170 - W-S, I’ve been to Ascencion Island or as it is more affectionately known ‘the ash tray’… to sample the delights of ‘wide-awake café at three in the morning is not something to be missed.
@157:
You’re arguing with a man who thinks that Vince Cable is a party leader.
JUST LOOK AT YOURSELF.
Benedict Brogan on his Telegraph blog - Clarke: Brown is a damaging ‘bully’
“The first David Cameron’s office knew about the PM’s expenses scheme was when someone rang to tell them the Tory leader had just been invited to a meeting by Mr Brown on YouTube. I mentioned this to someone in No10 recently, who winced in recognition at the pointless discourtesy.
The saga keeps getting worse. Charles Clarke piled in less than an hour ago on WatO, saying of Mr Brown: “On these kind of political solutions he’s got to recognise that these are House of Commons matters and he’s got to not bully in the way he goes about it. If you just pick up the newspaper one morning and see you are being asked to do something, that’s simply not the way to conduct politics. It’s very damaging. I hope he’ll now take the opportunity to pull the proposed vote on Thursday altogether.”
Paul Waugh asks if, after Stephen Byers last night (and you could add the briefing against Ed Balls over smeargate), the Blairites are running an operation.
(Hat tip to PoliticsHome for the quotes)”
171 wage slave - I’ve included Baxter’s forecast simply out of interest - the GE result, one way or the other, doesn’t affect the merits of this free money bet. You do see that don’t you?
@178: I’ve done it again, haven’t I. Right, another half hour in the re-education cell, and no more troll feeding.
170
That is exactly the point Wage Slave, whilst Brown may be jumping on the band wagon, that claim actually comes from the WHO who one would think might know just a little bit about such matters.
Changing computers at home and submerged with work in the office, so not online much at the moment, but the difference between “a fifth” and “almost a quarter” is not terribly significant IMO, especially as Labour tends to do a bit better among the young than the elderly, so there is always a better score among those who simply were too young to vote last time.
The Indie notes the huge majority even of Tory voters who would like Cameron to say more about what he’d do, and there’s a tricky strategic choice there. In current economic conditions, the details are mostly likely to be fairly unpleasant. Does he spell them out and get credit for frankness but put off potential losers from the measures, or leave it vague and hope to win anyway on ‘time for a change’? As long as the Tories have huge poll leads, I’d guess they’ll stick to vague - if it works, why fix it? The problem is that it leaves the press, never mind the other parties, free to speculate - e.g. the Times talking about swingeing defence cuts and knocking 10% off nurses’ and doctors’ pay.
183 NickP - No doubt David Cameron and George Osborne are waiting to see what cuts the government is proposing for post 2010, before they finalise detailed policy.
After all, they don’t have the detailed information that the government has.
Or does this ‘we need more details’ line apply only to Conservative policies?
re 171 wageslave it doesn’t matter what Baxter thinks, you can’t lose with the bet PfP proposes.
183. “The problem is that it leaves the press, never mind the other parties, free to speculate.”
Can you deny the rumour that you are installing new phone lines as well as computers?
183.”The problem is that it leaves the press, never mind the other parties, free to speculate - e.g. the Times talking about swingeing defence cuts and knocking 10% off nurses’ and doctors’ pay.”
Oh dear, you really have been off line, haven’t you? Sorry to disappoint, but it would appear that the Conservatives are very much planning to be open and honest with the electorate about the size of Labour’s debt mountain, and the medicine needed to try and fix it. They also feel that with such a tough period economically ahead, an honest assessment, and a genuine mandate will go down better than all this government’s broken manifesto promises!
Its also a very politically astute move, because it places the blame for the pain to come firmly with the culprits, this Labour government.
180,185 Snap!
re 183 Nick P, of course Labour would never do anything as underhand as increasing the pay of NHS staff at a rate lower than inflation, would it?
187 - Maybe he has been too busy smearing his Lib Dem opponent again? Or maybe desperately scrambling around trying to withdrawn those remarks and trying to kiss and make up, again!
185. what if the LDs come through the middle to snatch victory? after gaining last time at the expense of the other two parties, i can sense a highly misleading bar chart coming on.
NPMP, “Changing computers at home” Very wise move, I believe Guido and Draper did the same.
183. Thats a bit rich, Nick, coming from a Government that has specifically NOT spelled out where it intends to cut services, indeed who risked a run on Sterling in the process.
I think you are right, the public have an appetite to know what cuts their Government will make in order to balance the books.
Are you going to tell them?
A forceful “Brown must go” post from a Labour Party stalwart on Labourhome now.
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2009/4/28/82152/3125
176,
And a copy of the “Daily American News” - because remember what Gordon always says “It started in America”
183. Nick Palmer.
Rather than worrying about what the Conservatives might do wouldn’t you be better served in addressing what your ridiculous leader is actually trying to do and failing abysmally?
Don’t you worry about Cameron and co. I’m sure they will know when to announce their manifesto. Perhaps you should be more worried about what on earth you are going to put in yours. After all we know there are going to be public sector cuts. So what is the Labour Party going to cut?
That is of course unless you are just going to keep on spending and raising taxes?
Frank Field’s intervention will be dismissed by the government - and by joining forces with the Lib Dems, he will doubtless anger many Labour MPs.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:ce3097f5-cba1-4a52-ac72-597805b8bced
Any comment NP?
Looks like Labour have lost a very important voter in Eastleigh:
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2009/4/26/123957/105
Chris Huhne is still being quoted by Ladbrokes to hold Eastleigh.
**************QUESTION FOR ANYONE ?? ***************
DOES ANYONE KNOW WHETHER WE ARE GETTING ANYMORE POLLS BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH ? WE NORMALLY SEE 2 ICM’S EACH MONTH AND ONLY 1 TO DATE (THIS NEXT ICM IS GOING TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING ! - 10 LEAD LAST TIME ! )
183- “Does he spell them out and get credit for frankness but put off potential losers from the measures, or leave it vague and hope to win anyway on ‘time for a change’?”
As you say, Nick, option “B” wins by a mile. However, as you suggest, this approach only works to its greatest effect with media complicity. Obama was so marvelously successful with the vague approach because the media refused to call him on it. Will Cameron be so lucky?
Here’s an article today on this very subject, helping to explain how Obama got away with so much on the campaign trail and continues to get away with so much as president:
“With few exceptions, the mainstream news media have been dutifully pushing the Obama message, burnishing his carefully crafted image and offering few challenges when he makes questionable or misleading pronouncements, gestures or policy statements. In short, they seem mesmerized by the glamour of this new and different president. He is keeping them so busy with skillfully staged daily travel, speeches, meetings and photo ops that they hardly have time to ask tough questions or add context to their stories. Whatever Obama says, or doesn’t say, is usually good enough for them.
No comment from the president on pirates taking hostage the captain of a U.S.-flagged ship? No problem.
Get a new dog? Three days of extensive coverage everywhere.
Obama strategists must be giving each other fist bumps as they chortle, “Boy, have we got them eating out of our hands.””
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21756.html
193.Well said Marcus.
104 Peter I am probably being thick but if, with one bookie, it’s 5/1 for 175-199 seats and 12/1 for 15-174 seats, wouldn’t it be better to put £1 on each than to put £2 with the other bookie who’s giving 7/2 on 150-199?
@183: I don’t think Nurse’s pay should be cut, but after the fiasco over the GP contract renegotiation, we could perhaps do with another look at that, and the equivalent for hospital-based doctors.
For an international comparison the average GP salary in the UK is currently over £100,000.
In the US, the average salary for a Family doctor with 20 years or more experience (i.e. at the top end of the scale) is about £95k, even after the recent huge devaluation of the pound.
That said, there is considerable variation in the responsibilities of family doctors (and hospital physicians) around the world, which is why we need to look again at the whole of the healthcare contracts issue with some urgency, in the light of the current economic position.
168 For those looking for a level outcome, either way, from this bet, I should mention that 51.16% of the stake money should be wagered on the Tories with Hills and 48.84% on Labour with SkyBet.
187-I distinctly remember at the time of the 2005 GE talk of the incoming government having to deal with economic trouble stored up. This was poo poo’d by Labour of course still then in the “end of boom and bust” period.
198. Chris Huhne is F*cked in Eastleigh!
Why LD’s persist in propergating the myth he is not is beyond me.
Even that super marginal poll showed that last year and it must be remebered the boundary changes in Eastleigh are small.
Huhne is gone!
Actually, maybe Nick is snowed under, like a lot of other MP’s, “amending” his expense claims!
193. Marcus. Labour are too incompetent to have any idea of where they will actually cut. Even their cuts are really just deferred increases in spending - like the decision to get rid of the Titan jails (which I personally applaud) - they are going to get the private sector to build new jails and delay building them. The point about the Titans was that the HO liked them because they were cheap, now we’re going to pay a lot more in the medium term for smaller jails.
The only logical place to cut is by reforming the way that public services are delivered. Moving away from centralised target based management. But Gordon is wedded to his command bunker. The likes of Nick Palmer are too wedded to their stupid ID cards and other incompetent IT systems. Labour deserve to be destroyed at the next election for their crass incompetence and economic ineptitude.
If Labour are unlucky, they will get an outright gilt strike and a run on sterling that will force them to announce a stabilisation policy. It will be the modern day equivalent of Liverpool City council sending out redundancy notices in a fleet of taxis. Yes, they really are at that level.
Apologies if this has already been posted. Here is the detail from the Yougov / Sunday People poll:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/archives/pdf/SundayPeople_results.pdf
181.
“no more troll feeding.”
How long are you starving yourself?
The trouble with any genuine attempt to assess Mr Bliar’s…sorry… Chamereon’s performance is that with the main opposition committing collective Hari Kiri, the bar is not set much higher than Eric Pickles could jump over. Satisfying a bunch of unprincipled power-and-status-hungry loons is hardly the most difficult of tasks, is it? And with the public so collectively terrified on matters financial, getting away with having no obvious policies has never seemed more easy. But a week…….
re 199. I don’t think there will be any more polls in April.
The next scheduled poll should be Populus which could be held over until a week on Monday. Pollsters hate doing surveys over bank holiday weekends.
207. I wonder if he gets to keep the new computer after the election! I wonder if he has bought a sexy one!
202 John R.The short answer is NO.The long answer is that 7-2=22.22% and 5-1+12-1=24.35%.
183. Of course Darling (or whoever may replace him) will soon enough be spelling out more details of the cuts Labour intend to make, in the additional fiscal package that will be needed between now and the autumn.
No point in the Tories pre-empting that, really, is there?
206.
“Chris Huhne is F*cked in Eastleigh! ”
well, though not my own cup of tea, CH is more sexually-attractive than the relevent spokespersons of the other Parties so where else would he practice this activity?
212 - I wouldn’t be surprised if come end of 2010 / start of 2011, we find lots of out going MP’s had suddenly found the need in the 2009/2010 for a lot of “goodies” at the tax payers expense.
160
It might not have affected his or his party’s ratings, but I think the “Stalin to Mr Bean” jibe will be seen in retrospect as a critical moment that dameged MCDoom irretrievably
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2963664.ece
Strange that I couldnt remember the context and had to look it up, but the jibe is available to instant recall, ergo it was a belter.
196.
WELL SAID, THATS ALL LABOUR EVER END UP DOING -SPEND SPEND SPEND (INNEFECTIVELY), THEN SOAK THE RICH FIRST THEN EVERYBODY BLOODY ELSE!!
THIS TIME THOUGH THEY HAVE THE GREEDY AND NASTY PARTY CROWN AND THAT IT WHAT IS GOING TO LOOSE THEM THE ELECTION !!
re 206 Remind me what the last act of the last Tory MP for the seat was Martin?
219.
Placing a orange in the mouth?
183 Nick, which Chancellor of the Exchequer, asked last week what cuts he would be making post election said “you can’t ask me to write a budget for two years out”.
If Alistair Darling has no idea (nothing new there) with all the Treasury models and knowledge of plans, budgets etc then how can Dave n Ozzie?
218. Wayne - to answer your question. The next poll is the normal monthly cycle would be the Sunday Times / Yougov Poll possibly this Sunday (last one was the 4th April).
is = in
202 John R - For anyone wishing to cover the entire spread of 150-199 seats, although you’d be forgiven for thinking otherwise, Hills’ odds of 7/2, actually provides a better overall return than were you to allocate the same £2 stake across the two smaller bands in proportion to the odds on offer, so as to achieve an equal overall return - try it and you’ll see that this is the case!
Nick P - do you fancy taking the last place in PB Diplomacy game #5?
US SENATOR ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA) TO ANNOUNCE THAT HE IS DEFECTING TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Assuming Franken is seated in Minnesota, the Democrats would have a filibuster-neutering 60 seats in the US Senate
hat-tip http://www.drudgereport.com
re 183. Nick - Don’t you think the ComRes question on the point was leading? “David Cameron should be clearer about what he would do about the economy if he were Prime Minister”.
226- Just went to Drudge but didn’t see it, Morus.
Property prices have dropped 41% Jan-March.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8022578.stm
In Dubai.
217-It’s incredible how low his stock has fallen, and how many times he has been given a second chance.
Back in 2005 it was vote Tony get Gordon, this after Milburn was rudely defenestrated from running the election campaign. Then bounce 1, then mini bounce 2 last autumn, then the dead cat blink and you missed it bounce after the G20? Remember that one? Was it really less than a month ago?
From being highly respected not two years ago he is now seemingly universally loathed, his (economic) credentials in tatters, His every move analysed for evidence of psychological flaws or otherwise. But, had we seen through the bs back in 2005 this should have been clear to all. As a Scottish (normally Labour voting) friend of mine told me years and years ago Brown would bomb and starting from the fact he was “too Scottish”. Everything has been downhill since then.
Has anyone else received the Eric Pickles “war room” email, and managed to stay awake through the video? It doesn’t strike me as the kind of campaigning inspiration they were hoping for.
230 We told ‘em….
222,
thanks
168. Thanks PfP
Shame that SkyBet have not a single Scottish seat in their listings
Oh well, at least we can study Victor Chandler, William Hill, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Betfair for some prices on Scottish marginal constituencies.
Hopefully more bookies will join the game soon!
@226 (Morus)
I wonder if he will reverse his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act.
I gather that Specter is something of an institution in Pennsylvania but would never have survived a primary challenge by Toomey despite shifting positions on things like union issues recently.
I doubt he will fit naturally into the Democratic caucus, even in the Blue Dogs. Better to have gone independent before he even sought re-election.
231
for a first toe in the water, I thought it was very good and innovative. In comparison to Gordo’s car crash You tube effort on expenses, it was a BAFTA award winner
Oops
50p tax - Treasury coughs on losses worth billions
I had the pleasure of being one of a tiny band of hacks (there was me and the FT) to witness the Treasury officials get a grilling on the Budget from the Treasury Select Committee today. This is normally the dress rehearsal for the Chancellor’s own evidence session (which is tomorrow) and as such was revealing.
The stand-out story came from Mike Williams*, the Treasury’s Director, Personal Tax and Welfare Reform. He told us that - thanks to “behavioural effects” - less than 40 per cent of the total tax yield from the 50p tax rate would actually be collected.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/04/50p-tax-treasury-coughs-on-losses-worth-billions.html
“So there was a sense of deja vu when, after a lively meeting of Labour’s parliamentary party on Monday, I spoke to a range of Labour MPs about Mr Brown’s leadership.
“He has made himself look like an idiot,” said one”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8023225.stm
Doesn’t seem like it is just PB’ers that call Gordo that!
183. 10% off doctor’s pay? Yes please.
My previous GP in London earns £150k, does less work than he used to, refuses to do house calls, and sometimes pops up on telly - for fees, no doubt. And he has a private practise.
F*cking outrageous. For many of us, learning that GPs were earning six figures - sometimes well in excess of £100k - sometimes £200k - was the first realisation of JUST HOW MUCH MONEY LABOUR WERE WASTING.
I think you will find few complaints from people who use the NHS if doctors’ grotesque salaries are slashed.
And of course they get big fat pensions.
Judging by Nick’s remarks, I’m not sure Labour quite get it. Shall I spell it out? We WANT cuts. The people WANT to see overpaid public sector workers brought to heel. Cause its our fecking taxes you are spunking, you flat-screen-TV-claiming slimeballs.
@236: Definitely a good idea, but the execution left something to be desired - there was no sense of energy in the room (which is something the Tory video clips are usually quite good at).
Oooh. No fair comparing with GB’s DownTheTube effort. You’re setting the bar unnaturally low.
239 Your GP should be on danger money.
Mike Smithson April 28th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
219.Stephen Milligan MP
Nevermind the last act - Lets have a look at the last number of votes he got:
38,998 51.3%!
The Best the LD’s have ever done is in the by-election at just under 45%.
Since then the LD’s have been under 40% twice including 2005.
Indeed the LD’s turning out to vote as a number has declined at each election in
1997 19,453
19,360 40.7
19,216 38.6
Turnout at the last election actually went up.
Chris Huhne is toast!
Or perhaps like all LD constitiencies a magic fairy chases off the evil Tory inclined voters to stop a Tory Gain from the LD’s!
Interesting Picture that!
240 - Maybe Pickles needed another biscuit!
@243 - If that’s all it takes, I’ll send him a box of ginger nuts.
226/235- Here’s a source stating the rumor:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=31639
Wibbler, you’ve probably got it about right. Specter has crossed so many times into the opposite camp that he certainly has more friends in the Democratic camp than in the GOP. Also, by switching now, he can run more easily next year as a Dem as opposed to facing a difficult GOP primary and then a difficult general election. It will be interesting to see his stated rationale, though, if it turns out to be true…
Matthew Adams - very funny !!!
240
Tory central office is green
energy in the room??, at a very low level, we are all on energy saving lightbulbs 
241. lol.
To be fair, I did nearly punch his assistant, when she refused to prescribe me major painkillers (DF118s, for those in the know), and in the end I wad actually escorted from the surgery, which is why he is now my ex GP.
Nonetheless, setting aside my personally appalling behaviour, his pay is absurd. I’d be saying the same if he was the nice guy at Bangkok Christian Hospital who doles out scoopfulls of R0hypnol cause I tell him I “don’t like jetlag”.
Eric Pickless video - its slower moving than a Russian arthouse movie!
LOL his explanation of the new campaigning section of the website…
“Very easy to get there! All you have to do is turn on your computer…….”
Clearly this video is aimed at getting out the ’senior’ grass roots members
244 - No, I think it is a fine balance, otherwise he will get too over excited, ala QT appearance! I reckon he had eaten a Tesco Extra out of bickies that day!
Given the reports that he likes to eat bickies every time a Tory wins a seat, come the GE, I think there could be a national shortage! Pravda better have a good supply otherwise the Pickles Monster (ala Honey Monster) could be break off the leash to attack Dimbers and co.
237. Scott P. Nothing new in that. the £2.3 billion is roughly 30% of the £7 billion that they were claiming would be achieved if no one stopped working, left, increased tax avoidance.
The issue is that the decrease in consumption assumed by the IFS given the decrease in taxable income leads in their calculations to a fall of £1.5 billion in VAT.
It’s a really really rubbish tax. I’d have had a lot more respect for them if they had hiked tax on those on more than say 60K to 45%. The increase in tax would have been much larger.
I notice that the morons who were claiming there would be no one leaving have shut up - the chorus of outrage from the City made it pretty clear that a lot of people would be leaving. Unlike the sad little lefties who kept on promising to leave London if Boris became Mayor, rich guys will keep their word, more’s the pity. London could do with fewer moronic lefties, but needs all those rich business people.
242. I wonder if we will see any sign of the ‘return of the abstaining Tories’ in June’s elections. Certainly there were some signs of this syndrome in the London elections.
@247:
Maybe Millbank could be fuelled from PPE (Pickles Potential Energy) An army of research assistants could hoist him to the top of the building at 8am, and a friction cable could slowly lower him to the ground over the course of the day, thus running the lightbulbs, computers, furnaces etc.
248 On first glance GP is very high, but how much do you think it’s worth to deal with the publics ailments.
E.g. How much would you charge to diagnose a testicular cyst for an 80 year old who has cultivated a severe case of scrot rot since 1973 and has only one pair of pants?
235- The Washington Post confirms the rumor and states the rationale succinctly and accurately:
“Because of the shrinking Republican vote in the state, Specter was seen as a dead man walking politically in the primary with polling showing him trailing Toomey by ten or more points. The bar for Specter to run as an independent was also extremely high due to the rules governing such a third party candidacy.
That left a Democratic candidacy as Specter’s best option if he wanted to remain in the Senate beyond 2010.”
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/specter-to-switch-parties.html
Believe it or not, I’d say this is a fantastic development. Specter’s votes in the Senate won’t change, or will change very little; he was already a reliable supporter for most of the agenda of the left, from spending matters to social issues. In fact, the other senator from Pennsylvania, who is a Democrat, is well to the right of Specter on at least social issues. This does, however, put the Dems at the magic 60 Senate votes to end the possibility of a GOP filibuster (with Franken). But this mere party switch, Specter has cut off the one remaining Democratic argument for why they might not be responsible for everything that happens in Washington: the filibuster. Now they have COMPLETE control. A degree of control the GOP has NEVER had at any time in the last eighty years. No more excuses, boys.
248. SeanT. Did you know it is very difficult to become a GP now? 15 years ago they were all old and no one wanted to be a GP. So some increase was necessary. However, Labour stuffed their mouthes with gold and then realised they hadnt asked them to do anything extra for it (and had agreed to cut home visits). I was ROFL when I watched the then health minister talking about how they were going to make the GPs do more - after they had finished signing the contracts and had paid them. The GPs said “No, get stuffed.” Labour are a joke when it comes to managing things.
254. That’s your dad, that is.
242 - Here’s an offer available only to you, Martin, since I know cash is tight.
If Huhne loses, I will send you a crisp fiver. If he wins, you send me a one shiny new pence and a postcard bearing the legend “Martin Day = Neil Kinnock LOL :-)” signed by your good self. Do we have a deal?
I was contemplating the Baxter figures (circa 170 majority) whilst I was out today and wondering how Pravda would report it if it happened at the GE. One can almost here them saying ” This is a terrible night for democracy” !!!
258. Your on!
257 My father has no need for pants.
Seriously, how much would you charge for that little investigation?
251. no they won’t - how many of those who claimed they would leave the country in ‘97 if blair won actually left? i remember Stephen Hendry being one
254 - What a ridiculous argument. By that argument, people working in care homes should be on £1m a year. And Dustmen and cleaners should be on six-figure salaries.
Private sector salaries are being cut and millions are on short time. Why on EARTH should public sector workers be immune from the recession?
255- “By this mere party switch”
Mike, N.B., I also apparently do not have permission to edit my own comments.
Even Jarvis Cocker thinks it’s time for a change:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2009/04/you-know-the-games-up-for-labour-when-jarvis-cocker-says-a-tory-victory-is-necessary.html
256 - And that absolutely sums up the disaster that New Labour has been. A great opportunity to reform and improve the GP sector (as with lots of other public services), getting those slacking / not doing a very good job to up their game for extra pay, and expand the overall services in return for a pay rise / financial inducements.
Instead, we got essentially got less and have to pay more for it money! The GP negotiators must have thought it was all their Xmas come at once!
“You want to give me double my money and I have to make all these tick box targets, let me look, yeap already do that, yeap do that, yeap do that, hmmm, looks like I don’t have to do anything more to double my money! What and I don’t have to do home visits anymore, wooohoooo, where do we sign!”
224. Still don’t get it!
Assuming I have no idea whether the 150-174 or the 175-199 band is more likely, I bet £1 on each with the bookie who splits them.
If the 5:1 wins, I’ve gained £4. If the 12:1 wins, I’ve gained £11. Average gain £8.
If I were to put £2 on at 7/2, I win £7. So although this is better than the worst case above, it’s worse than the best case. So if I’ve no idea which outcome is likelier, aren’t I better off with the 12:1 and 5:1 combo?
Apologies for going OT with a question about actual betting…
262. ed. The big difference was that Blair didnt hike taxes by 10%. For those earning millions, the rise in taxes will be hundreds of thousands. It’s a big incentive. Some wont leave because they’ll find a good way to avoid the tax. But others will.
256. That kind of encapsulates the whole Labour disaster when it comes to public spending. Yes, some investment was needed, that’s why New Labour were elected.
But they spent about five times what was necessary, to achieve maybe half what they expected, and they have left the country wholly shagged.
Just Horrible Horrible waste.
I remember my 40 year old Canadian stepmum giving me her first reactions to Britain three years ago, when she became a resident. She likes the UK, and she still lives here, but the one thing she noted was the horrendous waste of public money, in every area. “It would never happen where I come from” she said. She was genuinely shocked.
It takes a foreigner to make you see your own country in an honest way.
And she comes from welfarist Canada.
263. errr… because the public sector is not tied to the private sector business cycle and therefore not in recession?
And the Telegraph jumps on the bandwagon:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5237085/20000-sign-petition-calling-for-resignation-of-Gordon-Brown.html
Coming up to 24,000 now
263 Not quite fair. Anyone who has to deal with the public up close and personal should receive pretty decent pay. Especially when they’re angry or ill. Emptying bins is much easier.
266. Oracle. I know senior consultants who were also overjoyed. They got this great whacking pay rise for doing an extra few hours a week. The Labour morons were talking about a big increase in efficiency. Nothing happened. Why? Because the doctors had already been working those extra hours. Now they got paid for them! It was hilarious. Of course, from the viewpoint of taxpayers, we just got shafted again.
271 - But they don’t do they? Instead GP get £100k+ a year, the council chiefs get £100k+, and the home care staff that deal with personal care get just over minimum wage in most places! And remind me who has been in charge for 12 years while this has gone on? Where has the money gone, not to those doing these jobs! Instead a GP gets double the money for doing what they have always done, or should have been doing.
@ my 267 - sorry, average win = £7.50; better than the max possible the other way.
267. i think that is a pretty big leap of faith in general. the decrease in take-home is not actually huge. for any individual it _could_ be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, of course, but i would argue that in normal circ.s, most people would demand a significant payrise in order to consider relocating internationally, even if that option is on the table (which of course it isn’t always).
certainly it has always been true that there are far more people willing to claim they would leave the country if X happens, than people actually leaving.
What’s odious about the 50% is that Britons on £150k a year are going to have to pay it whereas non-doms doing the same work alongside them aren’t. Why does Labour hate its own citizens so much?
271. Yeah, whatever. I think £1500 a week is more than enough for almost any public sector job, given the decent hours and big fat pension and job security. That’s £78k a year.
Some doctors are on a lot more than that, and doing little for the extra cash. It was a basic mistake by Labour, handing out the moolah for zero in return.
And that of course was just ONE of the many many many many many many mistakes they have made, which have left us with the biggest government debt since the Second World War, following FIFTEEN YEARS OF UNINTERRUPTED GROWTH.
Their ineptitude is obscene. I suspect, once the full impact of this debt is felt, that Labour may never govern again.
273 Personal care is screwed up for sure. Neither the Tories or Labour have a record to crow about on this. It’s down to the fact that no government is really able to face up to the costs of doing it properly.
If the new Tories has really good solutions to personal care, it might even swing my vote. But sadly personal family experience suggests this is highly unlikely. In their last 18 years they made it worse.
PS I am not sure why council chiefs are paid so much, given they don’t really have to carry the can electorally.
260 - Happy to have this absurd but vaguely amusing bet added to recorded wagers page if Mike thinks appropriate and e-mails me for details. I will contact my picture framer to prepare him for framing the card and penny - it will make a nice centrepiece to my lav.
272 - Actually it is less efficient in some places. My own GP surgery is very good, it has excellent GP’s and is well run, however when this maximum 2 day wait policy came in, it completely shafted what always seemed a perfectly acceptable system (you didn’t always get to see a GP within 2 days for non-serious cases, but always for urgent cases).
It is now nearly impossible to pre-book an appointment several weeks in advance (say for some holiday jabs) and it is a free for all to get the 2 day slots. Luckily they have an internet booking service, so the free for all doesn’t mean ringing a 0845 number at 8am over and over again.
You will still get seen by a GP within the 2 days limit, but all the convenience of being able to say “actually it isn’t that important and I am off work a week on Thursday, can I have an appointment then?”, is completely gone.
And this is all results from the diktat that all patients must be seen within 2 days, when not all of them a) need to be and b) particularly want to be.
the GP thing is mostly emotive claptrap. on both sides.
they probably were due a payrise, and generally do a very tough job very well. it is all too easy to criticise people who literally save lives every day, but difficult to put a price on that skill.
they do have an overly strong union and did get too good a deal as a result. many doctors also seem to live in their own little insular world where they are top of the food chain and they deserve yet more.
269
Oh in that case its fine for them to keep spending other people’s money then and being artificially protected from the pain that the people who are actually making the money for the country are suffering.
I knew socialists were thick but I didn’t think they were suicidal.
275. ed. Oh FFS. You are an idiot. The people threatening to leave are not the 250,000 people earning 150-170K. The impact on them will be the full 10%. And overall it is diddly - because it will be 1-2K each.
The people who are threatening to leave are the seriously rich - those who write their own terms of employment or who are self-employed entrepreneurs. Some of them will find ways to avoid taxes or will work less. But when you are earning £3-4 million, you really dislike the extra 300K the Labour morons want to take off you. You tell your boss, I want to work in Hong Kong or Switzerland. They arrange it. Or you are your own boss and relocate to Monaco.
That one guy on £3 million who leaves is already paying £1.2 million in income tax. It will take the increase in tax of 1200 of those earning 160K to make up for that one guy.
A hundred guys like that reduce the tax take dramatically. Which is pretty much what the Treasury is saying.
281 - I don’t think the criticism is particularly at the GP’s, it is more that the government missed a fantastic opportunity for serious reform and improvements. Most people when they negotiate pay, try and get what they can, it is the employer to make sure they only get worth they are truly worth.
£80-100k a year seems fair enough, but when you start racking up a lot more than that, you have to think, but at the end of the day although GP’s are highly qualified and perform an extremely important job, their most important role is the gatekeepers to the “real” experts in the health system. GP’s can’t perform life saving surgery, they can’t cure you are cancer, etc, that isn’t their job. They are there to identify that there might be a problem and send you on to the appropriate expert, thus aren’t the top of the food chain in the health system and thus shouldn’t be paid as if they are.
The government messed up this “reform”, and I am not going to blame GP’s for getting paid more than I personally think they should. Lots of people have got more than they should, cough cough, bankers
258. James - “Martin Day = Neil Kinnock LOL :-)”
That postcard will be a collectors item one day James!
283. This is news? ed was proven an idiot some time ago.
Indeed, I believe he may actually be the stupidest person on the site, as he himself admitted the other day, in a rare moment of candour and lucidity.
Ignore.
@285: Sadly, this is also tied up with the botched/abandoned reform of welfare and social services; GPs are inextricably connected with other forms of social care, and yet responsibility and management are formally separated at both local and ministerial level.
@255 (Stars and Stripes)
I agree. The “60 senators” thing was always purely symbolic - it means very little - except for the “now they are COMPLETELY in control” message it engenders.
It will be interesting to see if this affects the way Snowe and Collins vote on contentious issues. They no longer have to be the first firewall for filibuster breaking.
Excellent news for stars and stripes.
Specter is flipping to the Democrats- and just about gain dominance over the senate. Franken to follow.
Well done Obama- total dominance over US politics
286 IIRC our Martin calls himself that after a real Martin Day of whom he isn’t that fond so MD might win on both outcomes, either a fiver or chance to insult the other Martin Day.
255- you got there first stars and stripes
Commons committee calls for decisions on MP expenses to be delayed until after independent review - BBC Ticker
Gordo will be happy!
Statement by Sen. Arlen Specter:
“I have been a Republican since 1966. I have been working extremely hard for the Party, for its candidates and for the ideals of a Republican Party whose tent is big enough to welcome diverse points of view. While I have been comfortable being a Republican, my Party has not defined who I am. I have taken each issue one at a time and have exercised independent judgment to do what I thought was best for Pennsylvania and the nation.
Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.
When I supported the stimulus package, I knew that it would not be popular with the Republican Party. But I saw the stimulus as necessary to lessen the risk of a far more serious recession than we are now experiencing.
Since then, I have traveled the state, talked to Republican leaders and office-holders and my supporters and I have carefully examined public opinion. It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable. On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania.
I have decided to run for reelection in 2010 in the Democratic primary.
I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for reelection determined in a general election.
I deeply regret that I will be disappointing many friends and supporters. I can understand their disappointment. I am also disappointed that so many in the Party I have worked for for more than four decades do not want me to be their candidate. It is very painful on both sides. I thank specially Senators McConnell and Cornyn for their forbearance.
I am not making this decision because there are no important and interesting opportunities outside the Senate. I take on this complicated run for reelection because I am deeply concerned about the future of our country and I believe I have a significant contribution to make on many of the key issues of the day, especially medical research. NIH funding has saved or lengthened thousands of lives, including mine, and much more needs to be done. And my seniority is very important to continue to bring important projects vital to Pennsylvania’s economy.
I am taking this action now because there are fewer than thirteen months to the 2010 Pennsylvania Primary and there is much to be done in preparation for that election. Upon request, I will return campaign contributions contributed during this cycle.
While each member of the Senate caucuses with his Party, what each of us hopes to accomplish is distinct from his party affiliation. The American people do not care which Party solves the problems confronting our nation. And no Senator, no matter how loyal he is to his Party, should or would put party loyalty above his duty to the state and nation.
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords’ switch, which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (card check) will not change.
Whatever my party affiliation, I will continue to be guided by President Kennedy’s statement that sometimes party asks too much. When it does, I will continue my independent voting and follow my conscience on what I think is best for Pennsylvania and America.”
Obama “thrilled to have” Specter
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21800.html
“And my seniority is very important to continue to bring important projects vital to Pennsylvania’s economy.”
Neatly summarising the structural problem of the U.S. legislature, in my view.
Good old Daily Rant, how to cause a panic! All the blue rinse brigade will be worrying themselves to death now!
Swine flu panic sweeps UK as public rushes to buy facemasks (but will they actually protect us?)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1174313/Swine-flu-panic-sweeps-UK-public-rushes-buy-facemasks-actually-protect-us.html
When I was out and about today, didn’t see a single person wearing a face mask or “panic” buying in the supermarket! Probably cause it in a few days if they keep this tone up though.
Sorry if this has been posted before, on SKY
“Frank Field, the maverick’s maverick, strikes again. Teaming up with Vince Cable to lodge an early day motion that is fiercely critical of the government’s economic policy. (Oh and by the way it takes a swipe at the Tories’ response too.)”
Whilst Frank Field is IMHO a pompous waste of space should he decide to join the Liberal Democrats I would immediately revise my opinion of him!
289- That’s an important angle: Snowe and Collins are now off the hook as far as filibusters go. They can now vote this way or that with far less weight placed upon them. This gives them much more flexibility.
235- See 294. Specter confirms that he won’t change his vote on the Employee Free Choice Act. He also confirms, in his way, that this party switch is mostly NOT for ideological reasons (unlike Jeffords) but is essentially a maneuver to help him win re-election next year.
That said, I’m glad he did it because he just served up a nice fat pitch to a GOP that will be looking to place all the blame for problems on the Dems.
286 - Precisely. For me, this is less a wager and more a pension plan.
After Caroline’s failure, another chance for the younger generation of the Kennedy family to enter the Senate?
Bobby Kennedy’s son could challenge Burris in Illinois
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0409/Chris_Kennedy_vs_Burris.html
Who are these people who earn such big salaries and, may, now be preparing to depart these shores rather than pay extra tax?
Financial wizards? Top people in the banking industry? If so they can depart with my blessing. I wouldn’t object if HMG decided to pay their air-fare,as long as it was cattle class. They can go and screw-up Switzerland’s financial services industry, or Dubai’s or Singapore’s.
If they are real business people who want to design or make or deliver real things of real value that real people, particularly foreigners, want to buy, then the country has a problem.
302 - JK Rowling for one. You know the Harry Potter author that bunged the Government a Million quid last year. Odd way of saying thank you?
Standards and Privileges Committee tells Brown to delay vote
April 28, 2009 5:32pm
by Alex Barker
Whatever is left of Gordon Brown’s attempt to reform MPs’ expenses is about to be dealt a heavy blow.
The powerful standards and privileges committee, which represents four parties, will table an amendment on Thursday calling on Gordon Brown to allow an independent review of expenses to conclude before passing reforms.
An intervention from as important a committee as this (it basically looks at complaints over breaches of rules) is almost certain to win wide support in the Commons. It is highly likely that Gordon Brown will be forced to withdraw the face saving compromise he cooked up last night. The great and the good of the Commons have spoken. It will be a humiliating decision, but the prime minister has little other choice.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/04/standards-and-privileges-committee-tells-brown-to-delay-vote/
Just to put the Flu pandemic in perspective, just reading the US news sites and of all the confirmed cases in the US so far, just one has required hospital treatment and is expected make a full recovery.
And those in New Zealand,
“Those infected had suffered only “mild illness” and were expected to recover, Public Health Director Mark Jacobs said.”
Theres some of the Tory flock that argue people on £200k will leave the country if they pay £5k a year more in tax.
The same flock argue that non doms will stump up £25k, no matter what they earn and will all stay in the country to pay for the Tories IHT and Stamp Duty promises.
306 - Nice time in Afghanistan and Pakistan TIM Bot? Was the PM in a good mood at getting snubbed and seeing his expenses plan go down the tubes?
Good to see you HurstLlama -still need a last player for Diplomacy PoliticalBetting #5 password pbcom
296- Aaron
If Specter is reelected, he would be 86 at the end of his next term…
I thought Rowling lived in Edinburgh -surely that is in Scotland. Do they have income tax there?
303- What’s Rowling’s problem? She should be happy to pay higher taxes to run Labour’s Britain if she was already willing to give away a million to further the fortunes of a government that embraces a high-spending approach to governance.
What would I regard a GP as being worth? Perhaps £70-80K, but no more than that. A senior manager in a large local authority would earn something similar, or a top-paid Head Master.
“I will continue to be guided by President Kennedy’s statement that sometimes party asks too much.” Statement by Sen. Arlen Specter[294]
A message for a few on this side of the pond?
308: Icarus @ 18:01
I am already signed up, old boy, and sharing your desire to get a seventh player. Maybe Andy COOKE, fresh from his two solo wins can be persuaded to have another go.
If idiots running banks can get £1m why should headteachers (wife is one) and doctors struggle on £70-£80k and the head of a large primary only gets £65k.
It’s not really a problem if salaried individuals relocate, as someone else will be appointed to take their place, and pay their tax (although there could be a slight ‘brain drain’ effect). It’s if self-employed people and businesses start relocating that we have a problem.
Given that our economy is so dependent on the financial services sector, which can relocate very easily, this is an issue. We shouldn’t forget that there are huge swathes of that which, although they have taken a hit from sub-prime, are essentially alive and well. These are predominantly smaller firms (hedge funds, investment mangement firms etc), with a handful of very high-earning directors who are running the show. They can up sticks and go elsewhere at the drop of a hat – indeed, many have already – and that would have a noticeable effect on tax revenues.
306. Moron Boy, AKA Tim. 200K earners wont leave. It isnt worth it. They’d pay an extra 5K in tax a year. Anyway, I should imagine there will be very few 200K earners. The bulk of those earning more than 150K will be 150-170K.
I’ve been pointing out that some of those earning £3 million (or another suitably high number) will leave. It’s worth it for 300K a year. This is going to collapse overall tax take - just as the Treasury is forecasting.
Non-doms who choose to claim non-dom status must be avoiding significant taxes otherwise they can just give up their non-dom status. 25K or whatever is either going to make them say “No, I’ve decided to become resident” or they’ll cough up the 25K.
Tim the Dim. Now why don’t you go back to smears instead moron boy?
I know you have signed on for Diplomacy [308] - just a way to get it mentioned!
309 - quite. Seniority promotes incumbency yet further (as if that was needed), and also encourages pork-barrel politics. Term limits (2 for a Senator, maybe 4 for a Rep) look the only sensible solution to me - and one would imagine there might be plenty of State legislators who might vote for a constitutional amendment to that end! Let’s have a Constitutional Convention (I can’t see Congress voting for this, can you?) http://tinyurl.com/ConstAmend
308/314 - I asked Nick P earlier, but he seems to have gone offline. Do we really want Andy Cooke to play again, it would be quite nice to have a vague chance of winning…
OMFG
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2009/4/28/82152/3125#63
LOOK!!!
*EVERYBODY* HATES HIM!!
Can the grassroots force him out? Is there a mechanism?
316. JK. No, in a bank if a £3 million guy moves to the Swiss office, he isnt replaced, his job and probably his team moves with him.
311. Well, at the time she gave it Labour were committed to not raising the top level of income tax.
re 306. Since when are politicians supposed to be consistent? That’s a big ask Tim.
Like your lot when it comes to law ‘n order yet you are happy for the UK to break international law.
319- The term limit movement came and went. It had some success at state levels, but couldn’t be enacted at the federal level without congressional endorsement. It may or may not be a good idea, but it has no chance of success at any time in the foreseeable future.
294 Re: Sen. Arlen Specter.
Isn’t Arlen a woman? Morus seem to think the senator is a guy.
321 - I like the first comment on that, I don’t think they realise the bind that they are in.
322 - Yes, I suppose so, thinking about it. But my main point still stands - it’s not the fact that the individual has gone, but that he’s taken his job – and lots of others – with him.
OMFG
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2009/4/28/82152/3125
LOOK!!!
*EVERYBODY* HATES HIM!!
Can the grassroots force him out? Is there a mechanism?
ken at 317.This morning I rather loosely described you as ‘enlightened’.
Do you have a drink problem ? If so I understand.I really do.
You are a decent poster who contributes a lot but you let yourself down with the contempt you show towards ‘ed’ and ‘tim’.
There are fifty Tory Boys on here who ARE terminally stupid….and you know this.
Yet you chide them gently.
321. “My views on this were confirmed by the appointments he made, unpleasant power hungry second rater thugs like Watson, Balls, Sion Simon. These were the rejects who clung to Brown since Blair would not promote them. They largely worked to wreck any attempt to control expenditure though reforms and now we can see where this has brought us.”
Well said that man!! I don’t think any of those individuals will figure prominently in the post election Shadow Cabinet elections!
304. According to the BBC, No 10, says that the vote will proceed on Thursday.
323- What irony! Rowling gave the million pounds to Labour, she said, because of all the good things they do for children. But would she rather see those same children burdened with crushing debt for life rather than her having to crack open her checkbook to pay for all the profligate spending (which she apparently endorses)? Perhaps her love of children stops when her hundreds of millions of pounds in the bank are encroached upon.
323, if she thought Labour kept its promises she must be daft after the Lisbon Treaty betrayal.
329
You should read comments 25 onward on that thread. Hilarious.
332 - I think the line is there will be a series of votes on “agreed” changes, but ACA is definitely not part of that.
326- Specter is a man
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arlen_Specter
Given that the two latest Yougov Polls were sampled over a period of three days and overlap, I made the assumption that the two polls used unique samples (questionable I know), and merged the two to look at the regional figures.
Now the samples for London and Scotland are too small (<500) and there have been dedicated polls for those regions by Yougov recently. However, the samples for the other three Yougov regions exceed the voting sample used by ICM and co (c 600)nationally. So whilst they may not be totally accurate (caveats apply) they may well give us an idea of the current regional situation. I’ve included the estimated net change since 2005 GE in brackets
Rest Of South (1218):
Con 55.5 (+13)
Lab 20 (-5)
LD 18 (-8)
Other 6.5 (+1)
Midlands/Wales (802)
Con 41.5 (+9)
Lab 28 (-12)
LD 17 -(1.5)
Other 13.5 (+7)NB BNP 5%
North (923)
Con 40 (+13)
Lab 31.5 (-14.5)
LD 19 (-2.5)
Other 9 (+4)
329. Don’t think so. Iirc the Labour constitution is set up to make it very difficult to remove a sitting PM.
Even Pravda are asking questions about the Great Leader now,
Gordon Brown’s future - How bad are things for Brown?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8023225.stm
From many people on Twitter;
http://www.ccjacquismith.co.uk/
The government has unveiled plans for a private company to run a “superdatabase” that will track all our emails, calls, texts, internet use and so on. This is an immense infringement of civil liberties, not to mention a major risk to our private data - but it won’t make us any safer. The sheer amount of information that the Government intends to collect will be impossible to analyse properly and will undoubtedly turn up false positives while missing potential security threats amongst the morass of spam emails and private chat.
So, for one day, we should send a message to the Home Office - “you want to see our emails? Ok then, here they are then!”. We do this by simply cc’ing or bcc’ing every email we send (and if you like, forwarding every email you receive), regardless of importance or content, to public.enquiries@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk.
The date has been set for June 15th. However for legal reasons, please don’t go ahead with the protest of your own accord. Please enter your details below and we will keep you up-to-date from time to time - and you’ll get confirmation closer to the time that the protest is going ahead.
321- Do we really have another whole year of this? I’m beginning to question whether he’ll be booted.
He’s surrounded himself not by the most capable ministers but the most loyal- so it would be difficult to see a cabinet coup like Thatcher’s- but as I understand, the mechanisms for the removal of a Labour leader make it very difficult indeed.
But even then, as I said- can this go on for a whole year?
My gut feeling is something’s got to give.
326. Apologies Morus, Arlen is indeed a man.
Wonder what his payoff was?
343- Weathercock
Support in the dem primary probably.
HurstLlama/Icarus (re Diplomacy), we now have our seventh player (corporeal). I’ve just realised that I’m going away for five days on Thursday and won’t have internet access… Is it ok if we postpone the start till Monday/Tuesday? The game will be rendered pointless if I miss the first year…
Just a quick point, has anyone actually considered that 2005 non-voters might have not voted because they weren’t old enough?
342 - From the reports of the press conference in Poland, he was close to breaking point again! Blamed on a lack of sleep, rather than the massive pressure he must be under, can he really take another 12 months of this? Maybe the TIM Bot can enlighten us
If he does make it through to the GE, just wait to Martin Day gets to him on the campaign trail
O/T Soderling ran away with our 13/8 pick Granollers, but Zverev on brink of winning the handicap (+4.5) against Berdych.
310. Icarus
Rowling lives i Aberfeldy, Perthshire, although I think she did buy a house in Morningside.
Her MP is Pete Wishart (SNP).
Her MSP is John Swinney (SNP), the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth.
Her council (Perth & Kinross) is an SNP/Lib Dem coalition.
338 jsfl.What does ‘Rest of the South’ comprise?Does it include SW and South Wales ?
On the face of it those figures look bad for the Lib Dems if the SW is included.
346- NU
Already discussed upthread at post 10 and following
330. URW. I have explained in great detail why the 50% tax rate is a bad idea - the point being that it is a small number of millionaires who do the damage undermining the tax paid by the large number of those earning just over the 150K level. Anyone who then argues gets both barrels.
Tim is in my bad books for not graciously acknowledging being wrong on the comparison of 60% tax in the 80s with today - instead choosing to skip from point to point. He gets everything that he deserves.
I’ll happily defend Tim’s write to post - the odd smear, the odd lie, the odd useful comment, but at the moment he gets both barrels.
As for the stupid Tory posters. I’ll correct their factual errors and disagree where I think I should, but they will rarely get both barrels because 1) I dont care about some of the bizarre things that some of them write (and in the case of a few of them, I seriously doubt their sanity) 2) Ideologically they may not be wrong.
335. Comment #29 (on the issue of shadow cabinet elections) is a cracker!
” Re: Should Brown go or stay? (#29)
by ACLB on Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 05:00:50 PM GMT
OH BLLCKS I FORGOT ABOUT THAT. That must have been ditched right?
Re: Should Brown go or stay? (#32)
by NorthernMonkey on Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 05:04:22 PM GMT
I pray to God it has been ditched. Otherwise we can look forward to the likes of McDonnell sitting on the front bench. We’ll be doomed to eternity. ”
The answer is no! It’s still in place! What’s the betting that there will be an emergency motion at this autumn’s conference to remove it?
344. Chris(from Bethesda)
From his photo he looked half dead. Are the Democrats sure he’ll make it to the primaries?
24,186 at 6.30 p.m
348- Is there a tie-break in nthe 3rd set? If yes, Zverev is now sure to beat the handicap.
344- That would be the most important payoff: a clear path to re-election without problems in the primary (or at least a guarantee of party support if a primary materializes). He will also have a bigger say in bringing home pork to his constituents (as he himself admitted). There may also be a payoff in terms of committee assignments.
325 - Oh, I know that, S & S. But the legislative system is rotten, and those who can change it have no reason to do so. Not necessarily in a corrupt sense, but in the sense of producing inefficient government. People respond to incentives.
I want to place a bet on the result of the Euro election. What’s the best way of doing this? Which website should I go to?
350. I’d imagine South Wales would be Wales/Midlands
353 - Comment #22 is my favourite:
“Its not like chess, and OK lets pretend it is. The king isn’t the leader, the king is THE PARTY. The King is fragile and impotent, if you lose the party the game is over. The leader is much more like the QUEEN. The Queen holds the power and commands the board. WE NEED TO SACRAFICE OUR QUEEN. Brown not Mandy.”
354- Weathercock
Well, he is only the 5th oldest Senator… And if you compare him to the current president pro trempore, he looks like a youngster…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Byrd
115. Ted no problem, better charity getting it than Brown squandering it , at least some good will come of it.
358- You’re right in your observations. I’m just saying that I see zero chance of your proposed solution being enacted at any foreseeable time. It is a problem that can only be realistically resolved by way of voters throwing out crusty, power-grabbing incumbents in normal elections.
352 ken.The perfect reply.I did say you were ‘enlightened.
Not in a position to dispute over the substantial issues but as a connoiseur of forums I am.
‘ed’ and ‘tim’ are two important posters,well divorced from the mainstream and for that alone they deserve to be argued with rather than told they are ‘idiots’ and ‘to do one’.
I have noted and nodded with approval at the way you have taken the Blue Team to task.
357- S and S
Some Dems from Penn. will be disappointed:
Former National Constitution Center president Joseph Torsella is the only Democrat to announce his Senate bid so far, but others are eager to line up.
On April 22nd the list of potential candidates was the following (from Pennlive.com)
“I am seriously considering entering the race and have been honored by the support I’ve been able to build up here in Pennsylvania and in Washington,” state Rep. Josh Shapiro, D-Montgomery County, said.
U.S. Reps. Joe Sestak, Allyson Schwartz and Pat Murphy and Auditor General Jack Wagner also have been named as potential Senate and or gubernatorial candidates.”
360, it’s a good analogy.
322: Ken @18:12
All my life I heard about how much The City was worth to the UK and in the past twenty-years the volume of such claims has become deafening. However, we are just beginning to understand the reality, things are never going to be the same again.
So, if Mr. £3m a year and his team want to clear-off and live in Switzerland what does that really mean for the UK? The country loses a couple of million in tax take. How many of these people are there? Compared to a debt of hundreds of billions how much of a difference will it make?
These are after all the people who created the losses at HBOS, RBS and so on and so forth. Why not let them go?
The UK must, surely, be looking to find a real method of paying its way in the world and financial engineering (an oxymoron if ever there was one) isn’t going to be it.
Normally, I’d say you are one of the grown-ups on this site whose posts are always worth reading, but on this issue maybe you are too close to the trees.
306
Except of course the Tories are just repeating what has already been said by all the independent experts which is that this tax rise will at best make no differences to the public finances and at worst will cause a drop in the tax take.
Which bit of that basic fact do you fail to understand? Is it perhaps the bit that has been repeated by your own former party leader and a number of former ministers?
Like I said earlier, socialists really are thick.
350 URW - Wales is included in the Midlands figures. The South West is included in those Rest of South figures. Of course we don’t know whether there is a significant variance between the SE and SW. There could be.
However, there have been a number of polls recently suggesting that there is a 10% LD to Con swing or thereabouts in the South which is not good for the LD’s.
In some ways looking at these figures and other recent regional figures the inference is there is to some extent a rolling back of the 1997 position with the associated implications for all the parties.
Of course there are no actual polls for the regions so it’s more educated guess than anything else but that’s the feeling I get from looking at the regional figures.
219. How is that relevant to anything?
Stars and Stripes See my post #354.
It is one of the more despicable acts that I have discovered in the US political scene.
Have these people no honour?
No! I guess not.
365- Well, I would imagine more of these folks will now pile into the gubernatorial contest. That said, you might still have a renegade who will say “screw that, I’m still going after Specter.”
Rumours Brown is to cut off his head are exaggerated:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3571686/dinner-time.thtml
Edit: btw, thanks to the discussion earlier I now really want to buy Njal’s Saga. But I haven’t finished Thucydides or David Copperfield and haven’t even started on Suetonius! I should spend more time reading…
372- S and S
“you might still have a renegade who will say “screw that, I’m still going after Specter.””
but the renegade would probably lose if all that is said about Specter’s personal vote is true.
On the R side Toomey will probably be unopposed but I can’t imagine him winning before Specter’s retirement (2016?)
369 - Well we know that the south west can’t possibly have swung to the Tories, because the Lib Dem posters from that region are always informing us of titanic local election results there. And the weakness of the Tories in Hampshire is legendary in Lib Dem circles on here. And Norman Baker has his stronghold in Lewes, while Nigel Waterson is doomed to lose his seat in Eastbourne.
So I conclude there isn’t a Lib Dem voter left in Kent.
373 - That is a bizarre story and tragic at the same time.
375.
:)
371- If you want to talk about honor regarding party switches, it is rare. Jeffords was particularly treacherous since he switched at a time when it threw party control the other way, and just after he had been re-elected to another six-year term.
The most honorable party switch was that of Phil Gramm (R-TX), who resigned from the Senate upon his switch from Dem to GOP and then ran in the special election for his replacement (he won that election as a Republican).
Honestly though, weathercock, I’m glad to see him go. Not because he’s a “RINO,” but because this will give the Dems even more rope with which to hang themselves by removing the last possible brake against them fulfilling their most heart-felt, long-unrealized left-wing dreams (and their last possibility for credible finger-pointing when things go wrong). The public can then see them for who they really are. It should be very interesting.
367. Do you think financial services are just gonna disappear after this? Where’s the world gonna keep its money, if not in banks? Under a seventy mile wide mattress?
And if the banks have the money, which they will, what will they do with it? Melt it down and make spoons? Or… invest it as carefully and cleverly as they can? Again?
Banks and stocks and financial wizardry didn’t disappear after the Great Depression, they won’t - sorry lefties - disappear after the Krunch. They will be a little shy for a few years, out of modesty - but they will still be there.
What’s the alternative for Britain, anyway? Should we all make Double Gloucester cheese? Professional Morris Dancing? Maybe we could all build small crap cars on Chinese wages.
Lefties: yawn.
376, as bizarre as a democracy with an unelected Prime Minister who breaks an electoral promise to hold a referendum on powers being moved from the nation to the evil EU?
Ok, it is more bizarre. But less sickening.
373 - Njal’s saga is probably the best. Though Laxdaelasaga is also great. Once you get past all the genealogy, they’re very easy (deceptively easy) reads.
306
Just read thro the thread. Tim is back, no doubt after treatment in the bunker, but still dim beyond belief. Tim, When you are up against a wall with a firing squad, what are the odds that all 6 will miss?
does anyone know of any polls coming up?
Rest Of South (1218):
Con 55.5 (+13)
Lab 20 (-5)
LD 18 (-8)
Other 6.5 (+1)
Midlands/Wales (802)
Con 41.5 (+9)
Lab 28 (-12)
LD 17 -(1.5)
Other 13.5 (+7)NB BNP 5%
North (923)
Con 40 (+13)
Lab 31.5 (-14.5)
LD 19 (-2.5)
Other 9 (+4)
by jsfl April 28th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Informative post of the day and one that sends me back to the drawing-board.
Currently I am looking (but not that hard) to get with the Lib Dems any which way.
What the above figures portray is that the the Seat holding of LD depends to a large extent on their ability to claw back Seats from Labour.
374- Toomey will probably lose unless there is a major GOP tide in 2010. As for 2016, the crystal ball isn’t yet prepared for those predictions!
What is interesting, though, for the more immediate future, is this may give the Dems complete, unbridled control of Washington until the 2012 elections (GOP Senate retirements for 2010 have made gains there a dicey prospect). With a president who doesn’t hesitate to govern from the left and a Congress that is inclined to pull him even further to the left, we’ll see how Americans feel about four unbroken years of this when Obama is up for re-election.
381, oh don’t say that. I’m awful at flitting through different genres. I don’t have a load of books on any one subject but 3+ on everything from psychology, classical history, classical literature, fantasy, military history, historical fiction, Chinese classics, sci-fi (although I diminished my collection by donating about three dozen Dr Who books to a charity shop, more for reasons of creating space than charity, to be honest).
Oh well. The answer is that I’ll have to finish off Thucydides and Suetonius swiftly.
Punters, taking into account that the polls for Labour are near to their all time worst, over the next 2 weeks what direction do we expect the polls to take for Labour?
Stay the same
Get Better
Get Worse
My vote is that they get worse, we have not had the full benefits of Cameron appearing regularly in the media.
382 - Congratulations to Maggie Thatcher Fan for this post last night commenting on the 1983 election result.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/27/tories-move-up-5-with-comres/#comment-1029218
Ha Ha Ha.
Hilarious, MTF.
polling methods were different then , the figure cannot be treated seriously.
by Maggie Thatcher Fan April 27th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
315 - You never did show how many germans left for Britain when their top tak rate was 15% higher than ours.
Still waiting.
375. Antifrank. I know I have this vision of of the Libdem vote shares in all their southern constituencies increasing by 20% and them polling no votes at all across the rest of the south!
;o)
Looks like Browns blown up at ITN journos again during a press conference. The news just now showed clips of a very grumpy Brown and said they will be having a report on it at ten.
367. HurstLlama.
OK. Firstly, I am not saying that increasing tax is a bad thing in and of itself. But, the 50% rate is rubbish. It brings in no revenue. Far better to have hiked the rate on everyone earning over 60K to 45% - if revenue maximisation is the goal. I’d also hike the CGT rate back towards the income tax rate. I lament the going of millionaires only insofar as it reduces the tax take and because it may reduce entrepreneurship. Eventually we will have to hike VAT or basic rate tax (it’s the only way to bring in a lot of revenue.)
Secondly, the losses at HBOS, NR, A&L, B&B are all domestically grown and are attributable to poor lending decisions made by senior management. The issue here isnt that the people responsible are leaving it’s that they were employed in those positions in the first place. If you are the boss of Lloyds, you are highly unlikely to relocate to Monaco. These losses are nothing to do with the financial engineering and trading that pay the multimillion pound salaries - it’s about bad lending decisions on mortgages and commercial property and to private equity firms. RBS has some trading losses, but the main issue is ABN AMRO, a vanity acquisition. Again, the main problem is bad management rather than trading.
In fact it would appear that much of the US government’s losses (whoops “support”) in AIG (the insurance company) were driven by a London based unit that wrote insurance on various “clever” financial instruments (I’m talking about tens of billions of dollars of losses here). Thus just because the employee is not based in a country does not mean he cannot totally destroy a business. (cf Nick Leeson, the Barings employee who sank the bank while based in Singapore).
For the UK, the trading and finance stuff has provided lucrative income and taxes while playing on US, German, Swiss and French banks’ dime. Driving these people away doesnt reduce potential losses in the UK banking sector.
As it happens I actually expect the City to recover to some extent. It will never reach the same degree of excess as it achieved over the past decade, but financial services remain an attractive business. Why? Because I believe that return to capital will remain high and labour’s share will remain low. Why? Because of the influx of Chinese (and maybe Indian) workers into the global economy means that wages are under pressure, while capital makes a far better return.
373 Morris dancer
Thucydides is great! one of the most entertaining ancient books.
by the way, I missed the literary discussion the other day but I want to put a good word for George Eliot.
I’m not a native English speaker so I may not be the best judge but I really like the precision and subtlety of her style (like Proust, my favourite author).
As for the discussion about SF/fantasy, Pratchett and Dan Simmons are my favourite.
Day two of no PBC masthead.
Where has it gone?
298 I’ve always though FF was slightly conceited but right so often it was allowed. In the event he joined us I would be delighted.
386 - I’m a great fan of flitting through genres. I’m on the hunt for a good book recommendation.
I’ve just finished Andrew Roberts’ rather monotonous History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900, which even with its recurrent political betting leitmotif was frankly not worth the candle. I like to keep lots of books on the go at the same time, but my current crop is very dry matter.
356. There’s a rain delay at the moment but as it stands the scores are +3 games to our man, not including the 4.5 game handicap. His second set effort meant that he could lose the 3rd set 6-0 and we’d still win. It will bea tiebreak if level at the end of the 3rd set (currently 6-5 to Zvereve). Basically the only way we don’t win this bet is if one of the players somehow injures themselves and retires with one game to play. Then it would be void.
388 Tim,just wondering if you have signed the 10 downing street petition for your glorious leader to resign.
test
Jon [394] slightly!!!!!!
384. Many Thanks URW. I would mention again though that at best it is an educated guess. There are considerable caveats about the regional figures (such as the lack of weighting of the individual regional samples).
388. Moron Boy. Once you admit you are wrong on everything leading up to that point, I will consent to answer your original question. You know you are wrong. Don’t try to move the goalposts to your new question. Silly, silly Timmy. You’d be much better off just admitting you are wrong whenever I say that you are. Then we wouldnt have these embarrassing moments when you look like an idiot.
OT.How about Stephen Hendry for SPOTTY ? If he wins at the Crucible his odds must surely tumble a few spots.
396. Nice one Henry , so that will be 2 out of 3 then. Not unhappy with the one that is down as I put the minimum on that one. Well done once again
Benedict Brogan in his Telegraph blog - Gordon Brown’s new chief writer is…
“Gordon Brown does not know his luck. In these tough times, when the exits are crowded with those fighting to get out before next year’s great reckoning, you would not expect to find volunteers willing to join the Downing Street operation. But Mr Brown has, in the shape of Michael Lea, who has resigned as Daily Mail political correspondent to take on a new role as chief writer to the Prime Minister.
I declare an interest, in that until a few weeks ago I was his boss. But I confess I was startled when I heard this. Michael is an astute and talented reporter who had a successful career at the Sun before joining the Mail. He’s decided it’s time to try something different and has accepted a civil service role inside the strategic communications unit. He won’t be doing any media, and before you ask, the process was in train before Damian McBride imploded. Michael’s job will be to polish Mr Brown’s prose, a heart-sinking task if there ever was one.
Michael has already heard the jokes about rats and ships, and will be all too aware that this could be a fairly short enlistment (although as a civil servant there is no reason why he should not continue if the Tories get in). What stays with me is the surprise that Mr Brown can still find people willing to enter the bunker.”
URW
saw your post above, you have said in the past that you are a Labour man, but will vote Consevative, but you villify Tory posters. You strike me as someone who accepts the inevitable… but somehow can’t.its a bit of a dichotomy for you isnt it, like most labour voters.
395- Antifrank
if you like history books “Stalin - the court of the red tsar” from Simon Sebag Montefiore is great.
“Atlas shrugged” is not a very good novel, but quite topical these days
379: Sean T @18:45
‘Bless you, my boy. Being described as a lefty, I am chuffed. I have printed out your post to show to my wife and family who generally believe I am somewhat to the right of Ghengis Khan (and Herself is no milk-and-water liberal either).
Banks and stocks will of course not disappear, and nor should they. Financial “Wizardy”, however, is, I believe, a big cause of our present ills and perhaps those who were paid vast salaries because they are “maters of the universe” would be more usefully employed, as far as the UK taxpayer is concerned, somewhere else or in some other capacity more suited to their true talents.
I repeat, if people who want to make or design or deliver real things of real value that real people (particularly foreigners) want to buy are intending to leave our shores because of the tax rises then the country has a problem.
389 - I’m being a bit mean. I suspect the Lib Dems may indeed do rather better than expected in Hampshire, but the South West could be orange killing fields.
I’m interested that URW is now a Lib Dem buyer. I am currently maintaining a vow not to get involved in betting directly on or against the Lib Dems. I don’t understand their vote well enough or the particularities of their constituencies. I am wavering over line betting rather than spread betting, where I can aggressively back my instincts without losing a fortune.
392, what’s your first language?
I really like George RR Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series. Last book was merely average, but the rest has been excellent, if a little bloody and with a few naughty bits.
395, well, some of my favourites are Euripides’ Medea, Theodore Ayrault Dodge’s account of Hannibal (it’s a bit of a cross between military history and Dodge indulging in hero worship), and the Prince by Machiavelli. The latter is must-read, if you haven’t yet. It’s brief but crammed with useful information as well as being an enjoyable history lesson.
Hehe, sorry for the tangent. Morris Dancer, Derailer of Threads!
john [345] I am sure one of us would happily log on as you and follow your instructions for a couple of years!!
390 - Wonder if it was the “f##king posh floppy haired one” that did it again?
I bet Gordo loves this clip on ITN,
http://itn.co.uk/news/9514c2e1d1d480254ab53bbbbb3c68be.html
They play the YouTube clip over and over again! With Twirly Twirl for all to see (rather than the Pravda quick cut it approach).
Frank Field defecting to the LDs would be a massive coup for them. Can’t see it happening myself, he must have had offers in the past.
388
Timbotbotbotbotbotbot, i thought it was a poll not the election result as I posted shortly after. Sadly from your point of view the Prime mentalist is going to suffer an even more crashing defeat that then. I hope you suffer accordingly as all bots duly deserve to.
406 - I love history books, especially well-written and surprising ones. My favourite book of all-time is Fernand Braudel’s Civilisation & Capitalism, 15th-18th century, Volume 1 (The Structures of Everyday Life). It changed the way I thought about a lot of things.
315 £70-80K is a perfectly reasonable income for someone in that sort of responsible position.
@405:
URW doesn’t vilify me. But then I have a special anti-vilification field.
405 MTF and 408 antifrank.
I am virtually certain to vote Tory next time.What I despise is the way the Tory rank and file perform on here with their bullying tactics and attempts to get Labour posters banned.
I have now become a Buyer of LD at the right price and will continue to be so.
If I published my reasons I would have too many competitors…so until I get matched I have taken a vow of silence.
Sorry for the cryptic nature of both of those responses.
The important thing for Frank Field (and he is not the only one who acts like this) is that we are all talking about Frank Field.
I think he will be joining the Lib Dems in the next few days.
Watch the Lib Dem seat markets!
409. MD. Suetonius is great. A very pleasant read is John Julius Norwich’s Byzantium series.
395. Antifrank. If you havent read them - Peter Hopkirk’s Great Game (and his other ones) are great - and a reminder of how long Afghanistan/Pakistan and the other ’stans have been an issue.
409- Morris dancer
My first language is French (I used to be known as Chris (from Paris) on this board before I crossed the Atlantic last year.
the Prince by Machiavelli is indeed a must-read for anyone interested in politics and History.
His quote “A prince, therefore, being compelled knowingly to adopt the beast, ought to choose the fox and the lion” is the motto of my alma mater.
Sean [415] - can I tell my wife that she can have a £10k increase then!!
@418:
I don’t get it. Field talks like a Tory, thinks like a Blairite but believes himself Old Labour.
How does that say “Lib Dem”?
403. Yes looks like it. The interesting match is the final selection from the other day - Gasquet to beat Tsonga. I tipped him at 7/4 with bluesq.com and now he’s been backed down to 6/5. The rain is good news since it will slow down the clay even further, making it even harder for Tsonga’s serve to do damage. Anything could happen in this match, but I’d make our man favourite now.
419- ken
Totally agree about Hopkirk. The Great Game is particularly good.
416 MC.You’re OK in my book even though you were very rude about J.G.Ballard.
It is because of people like you I am voting Tory next time.If it was left to Marcus Wood…………….
395 Barbara Tuchman’s “A Distant Mirror”; Tom Holland’s “Rubicon” and “Persian Fire”; Anthony Beevor’s “The War for Spain”; NAM Roger’s history of the Royal Navy are all fantastic works of history.
If you haven’t read Claudius and Claudius the God by Robert Graves ….words fail me
409 - The Prince by Machiavelli is great! And I like threads to be a blend of politics, betting and other stuff. By post 400, I don’t see why other stuff can’t be indulged fully.
Martin [422] I agree -he is a total prat - But……
Anyone just see Liam Byrne on Sky?
419 Suetonius is entertaining, but (I suspect) unreliable. Tacitus is outstanding.
408. Antifrank - So was I. I have no doubt that they will hold out in a number of places and will save one or two seats that under normal circumstances they should not, just as Labour held out in some of their Kent seats last time around (I doubt Labour will hold out there this time). However, it isn’t going to go all the Libdems way.
Again I don’t know much about the Libdem seats but it seems to me that the protestations that the likes of Eastleigh are ’safe’ and that Chris Huhne will certainly not be defeated given what the regional polls suggest are just wishful thinking. I’ve argued before that his chances are at best 50/50 given the slender majority he has especially when the national polls are indicating the Conservatives around the 45% and regionally in the South they are in in excess of 50%.
426. Sean Fear. NAM Roger - excellent work. If you’re in the mood for something different though, there is an excellent book by Alvin Coox on Nomonhan, which at the time (1939) was the biggest tank battle in history. It allowed Zhukov to field test his strategies and led to the Japanese deciding to not go the northern route (against Russia) and allowed the Soviet armies to move to the Western front, turning the tide of war.
Thank you all for your recommendations, my reading material will now be replenished via that nice Mr Amazon.
430 yes, disgraceful - saying the Tories need to ‘come off the fence’ over expenses and that ’someone had to come up with an interim plan’ and Gordon was that man.
God it was toe-curling.
419, thanks
I wish you’d give me dead cert tips at 25/1 to help fund purchases though
420, aye, I also rather like the “Men must be well-treated or crushed/pampered or annihilated” quote.
Oh yeah, I remember now.
427, not read it but seen the TV series. Staggeringly good in places.
430. James Yep wasn’t paying any attention though.
430, no. Is he looking ill? *crosses fingers*
431, well, Livy’s less reliable than Polybius regarding the Second Punic War, but I did enjoy his speeches, even though they were probably all invention.
@428:
‘Other stuff’? Do you mean sexy-talk?
409 Morris Dancer.
If you liked George RR Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series, which begins with “A game of Thrones”. You’ll like even bett Steven Eriksons Malazan book of the fallen, which begins with “Gardens of the Moon”.
That goes for Chris(from Bethesda) too.
Timbotbotbotbotbotbotbotbotbotbot’
No response yet.. Busy in the bunker, trawled thro hundreds of posts to find one of mine but couldnt look a few posts later. I feel your pain Tim, it must hurt really badly that the Prime mentalist is going to be crushed.
Seen the latest polls Tim, Your party is going to pay bigtime for what it has done to the country.
419- ken
Looks like we read the same books: Norwich’s Byzantium is one of the best history books I ever read
414- antifrank
Braudel is great. MUCH better than the only French academics read in the US today (Foucault, Deleuze, Derrida…)
Rene Girard’s “Violence and the Sacred” (+ his other works)is as good as Braudel.
435 - I was watching it and thinking, would anyone else other than Liam Byrne believe the tripe that Gordon had led the field on this?
I’m currently reading “Stranger in a Strange Lad” by Robert Heinlein. What an odd little book it is. Dunno why the US tried to ban it, over and above their usual prissy puritanical streak.
443 Gordon the concensus builder, lol
439 - I’m a bit old for you to groom me, Mr Coxall.
444. Read that 50 or so years ago.
I have read most of the books mentioned on here, especially the classics like The Peleponesian War, some more than twice.
History, politics and Fantasy are I believe very closely related.
My favourite ever book was entitled ‘Strategic Battles of WW2′ written by some German General.
To make it short,the Germans proceeded to win all six and I could never read more than two pages without falling asleep.
388
Not sure about the Germans Tim but many of the 250,000 French now living in London came over specifically because the tax situation in Britain was better than that in France. In aprticular they avoid having to pay such pernicious taxes as the tax levied on assets.
London is now the 7th largest French city in the world.
444
“Stranger in a Strange Lad”
I think you mean “Stranger in a Strange Land”.
Actually I can see why certain states in the US would try to ban a book with the first title
I am now waiting to read “The Kindly Ones” by Jonathan Littell.
I say waiting, because my wife is now fully engrossed in this fascinating and horrifying book and has been reading it for the past week.
Just been perusing LabourHome. Turns out that the PLP have this archaic rule, where the shadow Labour Cabinet is elected by its members, instead of chosen by the leader of the opposition. That will make for interesting times post-election. Can you imagine some of the looney lefties that will get promoted? It will make the Blair-Brown wars of yesteryear a walk in the park.
451.’The Kindly Ones’ was also the title of one of Anthony Powell’s novels from ‘A Dance to the Music of Time’ series.