How many John Bercows will there be in the next month?
May 20th, 2009
Is the next Speaker market one to keep out of?
Late last night the maverick MP for Buckingham, John Bercow, moved into the favourite slot in the next speaker betting - the third such change during the day.
No doubt in the month to come other names will emerge and fade and a lot of punters, I believe, are going to be tempted into bets that they will come to regret.
Remember that what’s crazy is that under the new rules for the election nominations only have to be finalised on the day of the vote itself. So it’s likely that we won’t know the full list of runners until that morning. Then the voting will be held in secret which is going to make it even harder to come to a firm view.
We’ve learned before with MP secret ballots that it can be hard to read. You can’t even believe what MPs say. Remember the first Tory leadership vote in October 2005. The then front runner, David Davis, got fewer votes in the secret ballot than those Tory MPs who had gone public to say they were supporting him.
John Bercow is the flavour of the last few hours because the idea that Labour MPs would choose the one Tory who would p*ss off Cameron’s party more than anybody else is quite appealing. But how long will this scenario last?
The thing against Bercow most of all is his age. He was born in 1963 and is just too young. The house, in my view, is not going to choose someone in their mid-40s because they could be lumbered with him/her for decades. They’ve gone through the agonies of Martin and the prospect that they could make a second mistake will move the thinking in favour of someone who is older and looks like a safe pair of hands.
I’ve got three bets on and I’m going to keep out of any further activity until it starts to become clearer. The only winners in this race will be the bookies.
This month’s ICM poll: One or two people, including Nick Sparrow the boss of the firm, have contacted me to ask why we didn’t cover the May survey for the Guardian. The answers is that we did - it came out during our long outage on Monday evening and was featured on PB Channel 2.
Mike Smithson
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yes it is.
all sorts of revelations about expenses could come out yet, and anyone could throw their name in the hat, its too risky and unpredictable
I sincerely hope there’s only one John Bercow and that he doesn’t make it to the Speakership - he wouldn’t be able to see over Hansard in any case surely?
1
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
dude, fail by like 3 minutes
@2/3: FAILED.
@OGH
Why bother asking whether or not a market is ‘worth staying out of’ when you know, and you know we know, that you have no intention of doing so?
Can I just say ‘VPOTUS’ and leave it at that?
I now realise this, and hold you entirely responsible.
*Leaves for the evening; humbled, shamed but ultimately and gloriously ALIVE!
Sorry to go O/T
“John Rentoul: A leadership election would do Labour a lot of good”
“But if Labour changed its leader again it would be neither wise nor right to resist the clamour for a general election soon afterwards. The candidates in a leadership election would have to pledge to go to the polls soon. If there is a coup this summer, then, the new prime minister would have to go to the country in the autumn. But I sense no appetite on Labour’s part for bringing forward their next appointment with their constituents.
So it may be that Gordon Brown has to limp on, wounded, until the autumn. Labour’s annual conference hardly bears thinking about. But that might be the time for change. Then, Alan Johnson could promise a general election in the spring, close enough to the expected date of May 2010 for it not to matter.
Is it worth it? Of course it is. Johnson as leader could make the difference between a wipe-out and holding the Conservatives to a small majority. The one lesson that Labour MPs ought to take from the expenses story is that, if you can see disaster coming right at you, take evasive action before it is too late.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-a-leadership-election-would-do-labour-a-lot-of-good-1687669.html
Will MORI follow its usual patern of givin its monthly racker to Sky just before Mid Day ? Could OGH comment ?
I pray this disloyal, unprincipled little man is never made speaker of the house. Better almost anyone than else than him.
But I think this debate will soon prove academic anyway: the chances of this parliament surviving another month are now minimal because there’s an impasse and something will have to give. That will be Brown.
So this current Speaker thing? Don’t bet on it!
http://denverthen.blogspot.com/2009/05/eye-of-storm.html
10. When was the last time a government with a working majority was *forced* to call an election ? I don’t know enough about 1951 or 1974 to say wether they were )forced) but its very rare surely ?
Guido has a nice little hatchet job on Bercow. He’s the king trougher in the whole HoC. I think that will move the polls and outcome for Bercow somewhat.
Heffer has a good piece in the DT pushing for Frank Field.
@11:
I think it’s fair to say that Gordon’s majority is work*able* rather than work*ing*.
Surely Sir Malcolm Rifkind is an ideal candidate? Charisma and presence, not to mention experience. He is very loud. Plus his expenses look fine (I think!). I seem to remember he was mentioned previously as a future Speaker before all this blew up.
@11
It also depends what you mean by ‘forced’. Ultimately, the only thing that can force an early election is a succesful no-confidence motion. And if a government with a workable majority loses a confidence motion, there’s something terribly wrong, and that hasn’t happened since the great depression.
@15. Exactly
14. I wonder if the fragrant Nuala of this parish, Sir Malcolm’s #1 fan, will return to promote him!
The very idea of keeping out of any market is anathema to me.Having said that,I am not involved.
The two I liked were Heal and Beith and especially Beith.It’s too late now and the only way to make money is as a nervous layer.
This brings me to my point.Betfair’s Speaker market is a dog’s breakfast and scarcely worthy of my talents.What brings a market like this to life is the magic phrase ‘Any Other’.Have your eleven named candidates by all means but then have ‘Any Other’.That way the market is complete and you can Back and Lay knowing that all the options are covered and you don’t have to scroll down to the bottom of the page to find the favourite.
14/17. I have a feeling Rory Bremner would be delighted by Rifkind’s unexpected return to frontline politics as well.
Do we have a fragrant poster called Nuala? That must have been while I was away.
17- someone should do fake nuala posts!
19- it was in 2005.
Off Topic:
When ?:After a short burst of activity,H1 2009 looks to have blown its chances.The unfolding of the events of the last two days make it highly unlikely we will have a June 2009 GE.This leaves us with a two horse race between H2 2009 and 2010.
I have put all my eggs in an H2 election for now.This is the glamour option and has all the dynamic chances.’2010′ is the steady old warhorse and a worthy favourite but it will come under heavy pressure with every rumour.
Best of all,now that Speaker Martin has all but gone,the all-conquering Fourth Estate will move on to the next village.
Among their targets will be an early General Election.
22. Alternatively, they could try to hound out enough individual MPs so that Brown loses his majority, although thirty-odd MPs might be a bit of a tall order!
Who @ : Who will the Party Leaders be come the next GE ?
Once again we have an identical theme with Brown/Cameron being the steady old favourite and ‘Cameron Only’ the glamour option.
Beyond that there is the theme of who will replace GB if he goes and Alan Johnson is the current hot favourite.
Cameron/Brown 62%.Cameron/Johnson 20%.Cameron/Other 17%.Any Other Combo 1%.
One of the problems with multiple pages per thread is having to trawl through them to discover if an answer has been received to an earlier question.
Although Nick Palmer has been on to promote Bercow several times (is NP JB’s campaign manager?) he has failed to answer an earlier, very simple question:
Nick Palmer says: 19/5/2009 at 9:52 am
“Food allowance: it’s been abolished (and replaced by an inclusive per diem, which doesn’t necessarily mean less unless you used to eat in a lot of posh places) so we’re talking in retrospect.”
When did that happen?
How much a day are you claiming?
Seats: I approach this topic bottom upwards starting with NATS and OTHERS,moving on to the Lib Dems before looking at the Big Two.
My current best guesses for the SNP and Plaid Cymru are 18 and 4.These are only guesses but based on extensive experience of the markets.
OTHERS has become very tricky but it has to be given a number.I will go with 4 !
LIB DEM is a troublesome one but here I have any amount of experience.I give them 56.
NI=18 ! No problems there.
This leaves a mere 550 Seats for CON+LAB and that should be the attacking point for everyones’ betting.The Spread midpoint is 572.
.
.
O/T, but am suffering from insomnia….
Read the last couple of threads, then thought I would try toenails blog. I thought he wrote a good article about Michael Martins.
And then I navigated to the comments and found this:
What is the point…?
Anyhows, well done Mike. When you get ICM begging for name-checks you know you hold power. Enjoy it: you could have been a Lib-Dem ‘bencher!
Almost 10.30 pm here in North Dakota; another beautiful sunny and warm day - the third this spring, God help us!!
The only information I have on what has seemed an exciting time in the UK comes from The Guardian, The Telegraph, The Indie and pb.
Pb is the most fun; the others seem like elderly gents in a west end club sipping on whiskeys and dozing off. My mate Paul brings me up-to-date when we speak on the phone; he’s a life-long socialist from the valleys, and he’s angry, really angry.
Huge numbers of us old-time socialists have been marginalised by the events of Blair and Brown. My disgust for them both grows daily and I feel about them just as I felt about the lady with the handbag. Western governments have been a disgrace for decades; pandering to racists and zenophobes, creeping around with spivs and celebrities, prostituting themselves to a sad media and always, always, always, reaching the lowest common denominator.
Nobody resigns anymore, [unless harried out of office] everybody gets away with every dirty little trick and the public watches Britain as Talent and American Idol.
Sorry ladies and gentlemen but I will continue to pour out my bile-ridden posts for a few more years yet. Old-timers here will remember that I was the founder member [probably the only member]of the ‘Pox on all your Houses’ club. I railed against all politicians saying that left and right no longer matter, I said that the battle was between the leaders and the lead - it was always thus!!
I would be delighted to invite members of pb, who have read the Telegraph articles showing that Tories and NuLabour and the other lot were equally culpable, to join us Poxers. I know many of you have huge investments in Cameron or Clegg, maybe even Brown; but the air is much fresher over here and in a short time you’ll get over Cameronism or whatever drug you take.
Chins up, shoulders back, and eyes to the front. The battle is joined and you are either one of them, or one of us. Time to choose.
Even wiki laughs at Westminster….
Nick Palmer - “Accommodation allowance: £23,057. Of this, nearly £20,000 was is the rent of the furnished one-bedroom flat in Great Peter Street.”
http://www.stapleford-notts.co.uk/nick_palmer.htm
Note: there is a proposed £1,250-a-month cap on rent and mortgage interest payments - that’s £15,000 a year.
Bang goes five grand. Just as well Nick’s not in it for the money.
Could the Liberal Democrats explain to me, how proportional representation would deal, with individual MP’s who have been found with their hands in the till?
First past the post, gives me the opportunity to NOT vote for an individual.
Proportional Representation only gives me a party and they nominate them. OR have I got that wrong?
If I have not got it wrong, then there is no way I would vote for PR.
You’ve got it completely wrong. So, so, so completely, totally wrong. STV would strengthen the ability of the voter to get rid of a bad MP.
———-
Queen Elizabeth II has been an amazing model of stability and duty. Whatever one thinks of the Prince of Wales’ ideas, he does come across as patently fair minded and sincere. I think King George VII would be unlikely to be a bad king. Mind you, who knows about King William V?
I want Henry IX!
—————
in 1997 (when he last stood as a Labour MP rather than as Speaker), Michael Martin got 71% of the vote. In 2005, it is noteworthy that 14% voted for Socialist Labour, apparently confusing it with Labour, such was their zeal to vote red.
Rubbish! There is no evidence to suggest that anybody was confused about the identity of the SLP. It is a well-established party and people know what it is.
Why are people speculating about Mink Amble? He’s past it. He’s doddery and confused. He was shuffling about like Brezhnev when he was Lib Dem leader.
Why are people speculating about John Bercow? He’s an anagram of Jeb Cow-horn, and he’s silly. It’ll be one of the obvious ones, like electing the Pope.
I reckon the Labour Party will want to rush to have the by-election a.s.a.p. (in July), like they did in Sedgefield when Tony Blair resigned as MP.
Margaret Moran will not be a candidate in the general election, but neither will Esther Rantzen.
31 JL.
STV - how? Or at least how better than FPTP?
Henry IX. Now that would be fun. Harry would rock as king.
I thought that all Labour Glasgow MPs got at least 108% of the vote and if you say different they know where you live.
…the thought of Brown having to go to the palace once a week to kiss King Harry’s ring really tickles me. One can only imagine what fabulously non-PC questions the ginger one might ask him…
34. Under STV you can vote for different candidates within the same party, without fear of splitting the vote or letting in another party. You can replace a bad MP with a better candidate from the same party. In Ireland, MPs defeated in an election are more likely to be replaced by others from the same party than by other parties.
.
Let’s see how the debate and vote on these new expenses rules go today.
Could someone explain - are these proposals going to be supplemented by Sir Christopher Kelly’s recommendations, or did he have a hand in them?
Why are we discussing STV still? When I place a bet I don’t expect secondsies let alone thirdsies!
Live by the sword. Mike, make it so!
[34] With STV you can vote against an individual without having to vote against his/her party. With FPTP you have to vote against the party as well as the individual. STV allows greater choice between candidates of the same party and allows independents to be elected as well.
Henry IX, would in fact be Henry I of Great Britain, as James VI and VII of Scotland were James I & II of Great Britain. Unless, of course he chooses a different regnal name, as Prince Charles has suggested he might do.
I must say there does seem to be a head of steam behind Frank Field- Heffer in the Telegraph this morning is quite bowled over by him.
Personally I think the country at large would certainly prefer Field to any of the other candidates.
Against my better judgement I’m creating an individual seat spreadsheet of (eventually) the whole country. Showing party % gaps etc.
Early stages of Scotland atm (started there since the original idea was for an SNP target list since I couldn’t find one), but I first decided to tweak it to make it re-orderable for all the parties and provided I don’t lose interest will work my way through all of parliament.
Will keep any interested updated.
36 JL. Eh? That means you’d have to allow more than one candidate from the same party competing in each constituency. Madness.
No! No!! No!!!
The regnal system has been changed such that the higher suffix has the authourity. Please do keep up…!
I have to say, reading the thread title reminded me of the old political/economic joke; the thought of “you have two John Bercows” appalls me!
(Yes, I know the pronunciation is wrong. But work with me on this…)
In answer to the title, loads.
Anyone who wants to raise their profile, just has to throw their hat in the ring. Then you get invited on TV, Radio, and to write Newspaper articles, set up a blog and get readers other than immediate family. What politician could resist.
When the dust settles, and as expected you don’t win, you have at least had your 15 minutes of fame, and your party leader will have noticed you, nudge nudge, wink wink.
Cicero @39
On Frank Field,
He is independent, the most important factor in the choice. After Gorbals Mick, we need someone who is not a partisan.
I am sure that lots of Tories would happily vote for Mr Field.
Field now has the support of Simon Heffer and Nadine Dorries.
Not looking good.
As I pointed out last night those Tories wanting to block Bercow by citing his total ACAs need to be wary as Cameron was pretty much the same over 6 years
Bercow £126k
Cameron £122k
Ok, our politicians have done wrong. Claiming £24k for ACA is unacceptable.
However 5cum that claim £700k for a funny-farm are derisable. Nadine Dorries fetishes are more understandable: oh, Matron!
41 - Multi member constituencies.
Makes sense.Why should I have to vote for Margaret Moran, or you Nadine Dorries or Stewart jackson
William Hague is an authoritave and respected MP and has politics running through his veins.
Griff @49
Yes but Mr Hague is going to be foreign secrectary next year.
Bercow cannot possibly become Speaker - he’s an Arsenal supporter.
Bercow is thick and lazy, neither of which is a good qualification for such an important job. During his short period in the Shadow Cabinet he tried to cover this up by asking a record number of written parliamentary questions (over 4000 in a year), but his subsequent steady fall from prominence shows he was rumbled.
If Tories spot a Labour-led campaign to promote him (and that is pretty obvious already) they will do all they can to find another candidate acceptable to all sides of the house.
So you do not follow the herd? Surely Billy Hague will be F.S.&C. late autumn…?
52 I wouldn’t say thick and lazy so much as treacherous and spiteful. In answer to the heading, I’d reply that one John Bercow is more than enough.
FPT and the Monarchy, I have some thoughts.
The Monarchy is a medieval hangover, which is fine for a lover of medieval history such as myself. In practical terms, feudalism is long gone in this country, and the existence of a monarchy in no way undermines democracy. And better a monarch than a politician as Head of State.
As to being stuck with bad monarchs, it’s just not true. Bad monarchs have been removed on plenty of occasions in our history, and could be removed again.
On the palaces issue, I think Buckingham Palace is a very dull building. Hampton Court is far better.
Fluffy Thoughts@53
I used to think that our esteemed Prime Minister was like one of those embarrassing “stools”, that remain stuck, limpet like to the bowl, no matter how many times you flush.
Brown is not a quitter, and he is certainly not man enough to accept that his time is up. The chance of him going before the last second is impossible.
But then I thought the same about a certain chap from Glasgow.
Maybe Our Billy will be touring the world apologising for Milliband come autumn.
54 Treacherous and spiteful may be what you assess from a distance. Thick and lazy are what you find out about at close quarters.
If only!
Easterross proudly excelled the Scoutsmuns’ role in the Opium Wars. Glasgow is awash with the trade still!
Too much harm has occurred in the last decade. Children brought into England for the [sex] slave-trade!
Nick Palmer, I do not blame you, but it is on your watch. Enough, I say…!
55 - Maybe Our Billy will be touring the world apologising for Milliband come autumn.
Travelling the far shores of the European Fringe Parties.
54 - Of course it undermines democracy, the people have no say in it.
New expenses rules to be debated today.
Has anyone noticed that Brown’s intervention, meeting etc has resulted in something remarkably close to Cameron’s measures imposed on his own MPs last week?
I love the fact that one of the things banned in the new expenses rules is that you can’t claim for interest on a non existent mortgage. I wonder how many other items in the ‘bleeding obvious’ category should have been stated.
Beeb squealing about the notion of having the licence fee frozen:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8058637.stm
Another tin ear…
60 ‘New expenses rules to be debated today.’
Why bother? The ‘honorable’ clowns managed to circumnavigate the existing rules - the untrustworthy members will find a way around the new ones.
Has Brown paid back his Sky subscription yet?
Interestingly the last Speaker to be forced out Sir John Trevor passed away on this day in 1717. Spooky.
62 On Tuesday, the BBC Trust’s chairman told the Royal Television Society: “That is a recipe for curbing the editorial independence of the BBC. “The traditional system of multi-year funding agreements… underpins the BBC’s editorial independence.”
Is Lyons suggesting that a large proportion of the licence fee go towards journalism and reporting? That’s a blatant mistruth. Here’s a simple solution, Sir Michael - dump some of the less popular services, and divert the savings.
Reading this thread I feel like the fool who rushed in where angels feared to tread.
I couldn’t resist the 8/1 with Corals when Ladbrokes had cut him to 3/1 favourite. Earlier yesterday Young shortened to 2/1 favourite with Ladbrokes.
One factor that helps Bercow though is simple arithmetic. If he is an “acceptable” Tory to Labour MPs and they are in the majority in the House then that could prove a crucial advantage.
My initial intention was to keep out of this market and I am certainly going to be more wary than with the next Labour leadership market!
GeoffH @ 60
Has anyone noticed that Brown’s intervention, meeting etc has resulted in something remarkably close to Cameron’s measures imposed on his own MPs last week?
In office but not in power.
We have a decisive and effective leader, unfortunately he sits on the oppostion benches.
66 - You can hedge on this market with Paddy Powers “Which Party will the next Speaker Come from”
Although the 9/4 Tory market went pretty quick.
I think at one stage it was longer odds for any Tory Speaker with PP than George Young was with Ladbrokes.
67 - Dave wanted to avoid the Mortgage Interest element for some reason.
68 The Beeb are guilty of troughing in their own way, expecting ever more money to be shovelled their way.
No.
Oh good God Martin Bell still wearing a white suit, what a pompous arse.
62 MM, entertaining quote from Sarah Montague on the Today programme regarding the licence fee -
‘The vote has been forced by the Conservatives who won’t win it, but just want to make their point’
65 Blatant gobshite from the BBC? Surely shome mishtake?
A weird thing seems to have happened in recent days - Tim seems to be making constructive betting comments - and little else.
Once you have acknowledged the inevitable, may as well some money eh?
Paul Waugh saying Gordon Brown has just ruled out a general election to lance the boil of the exes scandal. Says a poll would cause further “chaos”
http://twitter.com/paulwaugh/statuses/1856753782
59 In practical terms, the UK, Sweden, Holland are as much democracies as France, Italy, or Germany.
Lyons wittering on Today right now. “The Beeb has put in a place an extensive programme of cost saving” And yet they still need more money? Just how badly is the Beeb managed???
74 - I’ll offer you evens that the FTSE will be above 4000 at the end of May, while we’re comparing markets, if you like.
Martin Bell in his ever present white suit reminds me of that angel in a black and white movie years ago. Was it with David Niven? Or else he reminds me of Hopkirk from Randall and Hopkirk.
75 - I saw that on my twitter, pretty anti-democratic concept that an election would cause chaos. I’m not sure that there is much more chaos to be caused.
65
The BBC could save over £100 million a year by rationalising their bloated international news service.
75 “a poll would cause further “chaos”…”
For the troughers, maybe.
He’s on the wrong side of this. He has no meaningful raft of policies to get through Parliament. In Cameron, we have someone who looks far more Prime Ministerial than Gordon does, raring to get on with the job, prepared to face up to the nation’s problems and get started on them now.
Brown is just bed-blocking.
81 - Given the state of ITN and ITV regional News, thats the last thing they should be doing.
[1980's Political-Science A-Level question: 25%(part-one-of-three) ]
“Farmer TuPac’s EU suck-up-and-see funny farm equals over 29 ACA’s by Members of the ‘House’*”
Discuss.
How does this tw@t dare criticise his opponents…?
Anyhows, I will place a magnificent £10 on Sir George Young! Must make a bet…!
*£700k / 24k = 29.166666666666666666666666666667 [DOS calc]
65. The argument against single year decisions is a valid one. So far everyone’s played the man and not the ball on the argument.
83. What’s itv regional news got to do with the BBC international service.
I think the British public would prefer that £100 million to be handed over to itv for regional news.
67, 75 And Cameron will get the General Election he’s calling for this Autumn. Carrying on with so many deselected and demotivated MPs around Westminister will force Brown’s hand.
I do get the feeling that Martin’s fall from power could hasten Brown’s demise.
If Parliament can replace the Speaker of the House against his will then dispatching a Prime Minister who has overstayed his welcome should be a doddle.
83 tim, what has the BBC rationalising it’s international news service got to do with regional news?
Whilst the BBC continues to send out multiple news crews to events, it deserves all the criticism it receives. Sky and others will have 1 team each present, the Beeb will have half a dozen or more from the 6 o’clock, 10 ‘clock, Newsnight etc
81
So its right to send more than double anyone else to the Olympics?
Give it a rest Tim. Any normal being can see BBC News is probably overmanned by 50%.. Look at all the people they have whom you never see until a crisis.
2009 election shortened yesterday to 7/2 with Ladbrokes.
86 I’d much prefer that 100m was spent on army accommodation or on paying off debt.
Good news on the Gurkhas, although devil/detail:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5352040/Victory-for-Joanna-Lumley-as-all-Gurkhas-to-be-given-right-to-settle-in-Britain.html
stjohn @88
If Parliament can replace the Speaker of the House against his will then dispatching a Prime Minister who has overstayed his welcome should be a doddle.
Yes but an election will mean unemployment for a significant number of MPs.
Is there anyone prepared to speak up for John Bercow? I know of him but not enough to have a clear impression of his abilities or otherwise.
For those who have not seen this BeauBoDor video on our MPs expenses. The Blears item is inspired.
http://tinyurl.com/qwoa7l
IN response to JohnLoony at 31
a) (FPT) Could the Liberal Democrats explain to me, how proportional representation would deal, with individual MP’s who have been found with their hands in the till?
First past the post, gives me the opportunity to NOT vote for an individual.
Proportional Representation only gives me a party and they nominate them. OR have I got that wrong?
If I have not got it wrong, then there is no way I would vote for PR.
JL) You’ve got it completely wrong. So, so, so completely, totally wrong. STV would strengthen the ability of the voter to get rid of a bad MP.
It does very much depend what type of PR you are talking about. STV, as used in Ireland, does indeed give the voters the ability to target individual candidates to support or reject them. It is a vastly more democratic system than most other forms of PR, such as the abominable Closed Party List system which is now used for European elections. That system has precisely the problem described - the person at the head of a major party list could be a bank robber or convicted paedophile and still get elected.
Additional Member Systems such as Labour introduced for the Scots and Welsh devolved bodies and the London assembly are a half-way house in which some members are chosen directly by the voters and others put in afterwards in a “top up” from party lists.
96 Very powerful.
Brown on GMTV this morning an utter disgrace.
Now GMTV spinning like mad saying he new nothing, he was appalled as his daddy would have been and quote there would be no more ‘moats and manure’ notice no mention of labour mp’s there.
He siad it was only in the last few weeks he knew about any troughing and then said he would sack troughing MP’s then refused to sack his cabinet
Stated he was the only party leader taking action
Got in the tractor stats as well Hoon!
WTF?????? GMTV bought all this and reports it as fact. Please add GMTV to the same list the BBC is on
Will today be another day of LibDem silence about Lord Rennard?
ReSpeaker. The nextspeaker needs to be someone who is prpared tp pursue programme of radical and also is perceived to be lilely to do so.
That rules out anyone with Sir in front of their name.Frank is the man who fits the bill.
The more pressing question is after waht look to be disatrous local, and Euro,s for Labour ,will the party round on Brown or will he be able to use the expenses scandal as an excuse and cling on for another year.
I think clinging on is the most likley otion because
1.If he stood down the calls for an election now would be diffcult to stop
2.Nobody wants a poisoned chalice-even Alan Johnson.
rogerh
*** BetFair Question ***
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I had to get my [beautiful Serbian] wife to translate the error messages. Why is the site hosted in Russia?
Anyhows, ideas for a safer betting-host will be appreciated!
60 - “Has anyone noticed that Brown’s intervention, meeting etc has resulted in something remarkably close to Cameron’s measures imposed on his own MPs last week?”
Yes. I haven’t had much chance to look at the press today, but when listening to the Speakers statement last night that was the first thing that struck me.
Have the press not made the comparison?
60
60GeoffH says:
20/5/2009 at 7:31 am
Has anyone noticed that Brown’s intervention, meeting etc has resulted in something remarkably close to Cameron’s measures imposed on his own MPs last week?
Yes and went one further this morning on GMTV Sofa by claiming he was the only leader taking action. It was an interview of lies, smoke and mirrors from start to finish and GMTV bought and swallowed the lot.
Mirthios: I’m only on pb.com intermittently and with the new system only read the comments on the current thread fragment, so if you want to be sure I see something it’s best to email me (Nickmp1 at aol dot com). In reply to your two above - yes, the new system will mean I’m £5,500 out of pocket this year (locked into a rental agreement with a break clause too late to make it worth moving before reviewing the position next May): lots of MPs will be in a similar position, but I think amusement will conquer sympathy in public minds about that. C’est la vie. The current daily allowance introduced by all-party agreement a couple of months ago is £25, replacing food and most other daily costs. It’s a transition measure till the CSL reports.
As for Bercow’s chances - people who say his supporters are motivated by wanting to annoy Tories are being too cynical, especially since the same people were predicting we’d force through a Labour man. The choice to annoy Tories would be Dennis Skinner: utterly honest, a veteran Parliamentarian, no difficulty in making himself heard. Don’t tempt me. But I see relative youth as important - no names, but some of the other candidates are agreeable, clubbable, smooth Parliamentarians of the old school, and is that what we need right now?
59, so what? We choose who runs our country.
62, hahaha. It risks undermining the BBC’s independence apparently.
102, saw Alan Duncan on Sky (he isn’t running to be Speaker, by the way
) and he said that Brown’s press conference was essentially tosh because lots of the ideas ‘agreed upon’ were just ideas floated rather than having all-party backing.
Keith Jenner @ 102 :”Have the press not made the comparison?”
Sometimes they can’t see what is staring them in the face.
For those who want to educate themselves about STV, there’s a whole pile of stuff here from the ERS, comparing it to other systems.
http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm40/4090/volume-2/grps05.PDF
BTW, don’t forget the SPEAKER POLL, which can be accessed by clicking on my UserId…
“Remember that what’s crazy is that under the new rules for the election nominations only have to be finalised on the day of the vote itself.”
Mike, thanks, you answered the questions I was going to ask about the contest in that article.
After the manner of Michael Martin’s departure, has anyone suggested that it might be better if the Speaker is given a fixed term in the position? Its even more difficult to remove the Speaker than it is a Labour leader, and it would seem that 10 years is about the sell by date for the party/opposition or voters when it comes to a sitting PM.
“On 12th May, the Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179291/MPs-expenses-How-Cabinet-ministers-tens-thousands-flipping-homes.html
8. Binge eaters
MP claims the maximum £400 food allowance for every month of the year, even during the recess when they are unlikely to be away from their main home. They do not need to provide receipts.
Example: Ex-Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott - The self-confessed bulimic gorged his way through the maximum £4,800 allowed for food.”
Nick P - although you say (at 103 above) “The current daily allowance introduced by all-party agreement a couple of months ago is £25, replacing food and most other daily costs.”, I can find no reference to that agreement or its implementation.
Do you have a source, please?
107, I’d echo what someone said yesterday, namely that the Speaker must be elected (or re-elected) after each election. Mind you, a fixed term would work just as well.
95 stjohn - to respond more broadly on Bercow apart from the age pros and cons:
- He’s idealistic about non-core issues (e.g. Darfur) but non-partisan. It’s never certain which way he’ll vote - which is good preparation for a position where he normally can’t vote at all.
- He’s an exceptionally good committee chairman - unintrusive, firm, but unfailingly polite. Sample, to a notorious windbag who was intervening at length on an irrelevant point: “Although the point he is making is exceptionally interesting, it actually relates to a later clause, so the Honourable Member might wish to save himself for that.” The windbag chuckled amiably and sat down promptly without fuss (a rare event).
- He doesn’t have any personal baggage in terms of feuds with other members.
- He’s Tory enough to have been reselected for one of the safest Tory seats in Britain, but his criticisms of the government take the form of suggestions for better policies rather than wild attacks.
103
Dennis Skinner as Speaker would be hilarious. I could see him trying to get through a whole PMQs without calling Cameron once. Then as the tory backbenchers get more and more rowdy at this slight to their leader, Skinner turning on them, having a shout and a strop before walking out.
Would give the news something to talk about.
108 - sorry, mirthios, no time to look it up as I need to sign off for a while, but if you search on the Parl’y site (look under Harman/Duncan contributions if you can’t find it directly) it should turn up. It was approved unanimously, to take effect from April 1, so will have been in Feb or more likely March.
Marquee Mark says: at 8:17 am “Will today be another day of LibDem silence about Lord Rennard?”
Looks like it. Why? My guess is that they are keeping Rennard in place 1) to run these elections and 2) to avoid any major adverse publicity before June 4th.
There should have been 20 people present at their FedEx mtg but with that number they probably just decided some principles (like Labour) then kicked it into the long grass of a committee (like Labour). Dear Mr Clegg you are the Leader? So much for their new President Ros. Has she a new slogan, “Baronesses can cover up too”? (Like Labour.)
Cynical attitude to transparency and “cleaning up politics”?
ERS mount campaign for voting referendum
http://www.politics.co.uk/opinion-formers/press-releases/legal-and-constitutional/ers-martin-resignation-new-faces-do-not-equal-new-politics-$1296869$470346.htm
Off topic, but betting related. With reference to the impending Glasgow North East by-election, there has been a lot of speculation about Paul Martin standing for the seat. Magnus Linklater in the Times dismisses this idea in his article today:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/magnus_linklater/article6322269.ece
“When the by-election is called in Glasgow North East, the idea, once widely touted, that Mr Martin’s son Paul - a Member of the Scottish Parliament - would inherit the seat under the old, unwritten rules, will be tossed out of the window. Not only has Mr Martin Jr ruled himself out, the party would be crushed if it was seen to be perpetuating a discredited system.”
Is Magnus Linklater right to say that Paul Martin has ruled himself out? This is obviously directly relevant to betting on the seat.
109. This is already in place. It just happens that the Speaker has been re-elected nem con since 1835…
111. Be worth it just for the comedy value.
109.MD, not thought of that idea either. I think that part of the problem with Martin arose because he was showing no signs of departing any time soon. Who is the longest sitting Speaker in the last 30/40 years? Didn’t Boothroyd remain in the post for about two Parliaments?
Regarding Bercow, if his expenses are that heavy it maybe a race between being deselected and getting elected as the Speaker.
What would be worse is if someone was elected as Speaker who had not had their expenses exposed and their trousering came to light after the election.
There are other interesting wrinkles in the rules:
From Standing Order 1B:
(3(b)) Each nomination shall consist of a signed statement made by the candidate declaring his willingness to stand for election accompanied by the signatures of not fewer than twelve nor more than fifteen Members, of whom not fewer than three shall be Members elected to the House as members of any party other than that to which the candidate belongs or members of no party.
Now, for example, Bob Spink was elected to the House as a member of the Conservative Party but is no longer such, so would he count as one of the three non-Tories if he were to nominate a Conservative?
(6) When the House meets, the order in which candidates
may address the House shall be determined by lot; the Member
presiding shall then invite each candidate to address the House;
and after all candidates have been given an opportunity to
speak, the Member presiding shall direct the House to proceed
to a ballot.
So, presumably we’ll get some interesting TV starting at 2:30pm on 22 June… however:
(8(d)) A ballot shall be declared closed after the expiration
of half an hour and counting shall take place under
arrangements made by the Clerk of the House.
…there could also be a lot of waiting around for voting to happen!
And when there is a winner, there does need to be a formal resolution of the House that the winner “do take the chair of this House as Speaker” - and if that is rejected they do it all again 24 hours later.
Let battle commence!
Have just joined William Hills (Gib.) but cannot find any political bets. Is this [another] tun down-the-jacksie…?
Apologies if it has been stated on an earlier thread that I have missed, but could someone (NickP?) please explain the voting sysetm that is to be used in the speaker election. Is it FPTP, STV, stone-paper-scissors, etc? All I’ve heard is that it is a secret ballot.
Oh, and will there be postal voting
117.It certainly would add that, can you imagine Skinner being effectively silenced and unable to shout posh toffs at Cameron and Osborne?
Bercow would not be wanted by most of the Tory Party. When are the Labour Party going to grow up and realise that it is wrong and counter-productive to force a Speaker on the Commons that a significant number do not want? Have they learned nothing from this fiasco? Can’t they see past their pathetic Labour tribalism and party rivalry and think of the good of the institution that it is their privilege to belong to?!
116, nem con?
122. It’s an exhaustive secret ballot. Anyone who fails to get 5% in the first round is eliminated. Further rounds of voting occur, with the lowest candidate being eliminated until someone emerges with more than 50%. Then a confirmatory ballot is held on that person.
115.Antifrank, I have read about Paul Martin being happy in his position as an MSP before when this suggestion has been brought up.
After all the media coverage, I cannot see him being considered as the candidate in this by election, especially after what happened when Labour parachuted in Dunwoody’s daughter in C&N.
I see Corals are now no offers on Beith after going 14-1 last night.
125. Morris Dancer.
“nemine contradicente”, “with no-one speaking against”. In less pretentious language, “unanimously”, “without a vote being forced”.
120 LS at 8:49 am. Those rules you post, place a lot of influence on SNP, DUP, PC and the few Independents to be part of the nomination process.
That could restrict the number of candidates.
Just heard an Economist on radio 4 say he agrees with chancellor about recovery starting in summer and improving by the end of the year.
Stated Japans figures today truly awful,and Britain was in front of Europe and USA.
Looks like election MAY 2010 still a certainty.
Monaco GP 1st practice a day away
Earlier (a week or so ago) I tipped Vettel and Barrichello as potential winners. Vettel because he’s shit-hot, came 5th last year (in a Toro Rosso) and may be getting a sexy diffuser for a car that’s already faster than everything except Brawn.
Barrichello because he’s a very good driver who only didn’t win the last race due to unexpected strategy changes and a bad set of last tyres, and he’s more than 10/1.
Remember though, Monaco allows almost no margin for error. I’ll be laying my bets at the earliest opportunity.
I’d be interested to know how many of the Tory herd would find themselves nodding vigorously in agreement with Polly Toynbee today:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/20/parliament-reform-house-of-commons
It is fairly obvious that in this age of ‘austerity’ that all costs should be kept to a minimum, so even the speaker’s uniform must be errr minimilist. Candidates above 5ft 6ins need not apply: so its, Diddy Duncan’ then.
If she hadn’t blotted her copybook, Blears would have been a shoooing.
129, ah. Cheers.
131, I certainly hope we do recover more rapidly than expected. Didn’t the Bank of England recently revise downwards their growth forecasts though?
125. nemine contradicente (Latin)
without dissent, on the nod….
126. Thanks Rod. Wouldn’t STV have been a lot easier - and given the same outcome?
133 - Not many.
75 Brown said election would cause “chaos”.
Chaos for the Labour Party. But great for democracy, and the country.
However to Brown, Labour’s interest is the greatest consideration, naturally.
My revulsion for this anti-democratic squatter in No 10 is growing daily.
127 - If he doesn’t stand, why are Labour odds against, even in the present climate?
139, we should be grateful the Supreme Leader is placing the harmony of the nation above the banshee-like shrieking of the rightwing press.
135. Yes they came up with a new figure of -4.5% against the -3.5% in the budget. Mind you if you look at the BoE forecasting over the last year or so it has been laughable. If the BoE can’t get it right I don’t know why people believe independent forecasters will do a better job. Economic prediction is extraordinarily difficult.
I’m very sceptical about what analysts and experts say will happen to the economy or particular sectors and businesses. They could make a lot of money if they really knew what will happen, and they sure as hell wouldn’t be blabbering away in the papers or on the radio about it.
133
Polly talks sense on sometimes, usually when she is not tying herself in knots trying to spin for Gordon.
Yes there are too many MPs. Far to many. Do we remember the Indian election from this weekend? There are more MPs in the commons, than there are in the Indian parliament. Ridiculous.
Add to that over 700 stuffed into the Lords, not one of them voted for by the people and we have some serious need for reform.
One thing I slightly disagree with is have 6 member constituencies. I’m reading through the document RodCrosby linked to at 106 and it’s the size of the multi-member constituency I disagree with.
It would be hard enough for a political geek like myself to meaningfully asses who are the best 6 candidates out of list of god knows how many. What about the general public who pay little attention most times? I would say 3 member constituencies. Maybe four at a push.
How can Hazel Blears continue as a member of cabinet when the Prime Minister calls her behaviour “unacceptable”? Has she no sense of dignity?
If your boss calls you “unacceptable” on national tv 99% of us would be off.
137 I think this method allows people to withdraw gracefully if they can see that they are not going to make much progress. Also, expect speeches in favour of certain candidates to enable support to be rallied during the day.
143, I agree the Lords (and Commons) is too large but as it’s clearly a secondary chamber have no issue with it being unelected.
141. Well, as Blair said, NuLab is ‘the Political wing of the British people’! Obviously we would want Brown to be ‘getting on with the job’. As Clarke said, when he cocked up, that people would want him to stay in his position to put it right! anything else is, obviously, certifiable. The sheer arrogance is breathtaking.
To rely on local parties to de-select, seems to be a tad unreal!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6323104.ece
144. If Brown sacked her, or she felt she had to go, she could hardly be the only one to go from around the cabinet table. Brown does not want half a dozen ex-ministers in a strop, plotting away to knife him after the elections in June. He already has enough people sharpening their knives.
.
.
Mike you say in the piece above: “You can’t even believe what MPs say.” I am surprised at you, this blog is read by young people and the occasional woman. You should not shatter their illusions about Honourable Members of the House.
I see betfair have Euro election markets up and running.
LD vs Lab looks interesting
137. AV is the single-seat method of STV.
Exhaustive ballot is gold-plated AV. It allows for lobbying of voters after each round, and for people to change their preference in the light of the tactical situation.
Amazing how the parties and politicians make sure they have the most sophisticated voting system imaginable, yet are content for the plebs to scratch the mark of the illiterate and use the blunt instrument of FPTP…
Arrogant tossers…
137. AV is the single-seat method of STV.
Exhaustive ballot is gold-plated AV. It allows for lobbying of voters after each round, and for people to change their preference in the light of the tactical situation.
Amazing how the parties and politicians make sure they have the most sophisticated voting system imaginable, yet are content for the plebs to scratch the mark of the illiterate and use the blunt instrument of FPTP…
Arrogant t0ssers…
What happened to the expected Ipsos-Mori poll last night?
‘Have they learned nothing from this fiasco? Can’t they see past their pathetic Labour tribalism ‘
Robert - no, of course they haven’t. Nick Palmer is however doing a sterling job trying to give this absurdly partisan effort to force Bercow into the chair a veneer of respectability.
I must say he really does earn his corn on here - perhaps now he’s going to be down 5k a year we’ll see him posting even more often.
Why not allocate the council / hard cases work load to a reformed, elected House of Lords and let the Commons MPs get on with their real work (getting on the telly, HIGNFY, QT, newspaper columns, newspaper reviews etc) ?
Ooh Paul Waugh tweets “Hazel Blears is on her way to Salford. But she is due to address Commons on planning at 1.30pm. Is she quitting?”
152 - There are less sophisticated voters than MPs. It is not arrogant to note that a system that might work well for MPs might not work well for the general public. The recent Scottish experience shows that such concerns can be justified.
155, ooh, that’s an interesting idea.
Oh dear.
“It seems Brown’s strategy is to present himself as the Father of the Nation again, just as he did during the crises over flooding and foot and mouth early in his reign and during the Lehman Brothers collapse last autumn.”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/05/gordon-rules-out-snap-general-election.html
First of all, at this stage in the life a Parliament there is nothing ’snap’ about a General Election.
And secondly, the argument “that to have a poll would cause ‘chaos’” is bogus. It is the argument of a would-be Hugo Chavez of the United Kingdom.
“…and let the Commons MPs get on with their real work (getting on the telly, HIGNFY, QT, newspaper columns, newspaper reviews etc) ?
…and facing competitive elimination via a freshly armed electorate.
79 — “Martin Bell in his ever present white suit reminds me of that angel in a black and white movie years ago. Was it with David Niven?”
The David Niven movie would be the most excellent classic ‘A Matter of Life and Death’ (1946), which in fact alternated between b/w and Technicolor. Alternatively, you might be thinking of the early-50s Ealing comedy ‘The Man in the White Suit’, starring Alec Guinness.
160, you missed out “being fired into the sun from some sort of giant artillery gun”. Most remiss of you
156 Good spotting James.
That would be very interesting, especially if she feels scapegoated
“I’m reading through the document RodCrosby linked to at 106 and it’s the size of the multi-member constituency I disagree with.”
I don’t think the ERS are dogmatic about the size of the MM-constituencies. There is obviously a trade-off between proportionality (larger constituencies) and practicality.
A mixture of 3, 4 and 5 member seats, depending on population density would deliver good results, with the four island seats staying as single-member elected by AV.
139.”JamesA says:
20/5/2009 at 9:01 am
Brown said election would cause “chaos”.”
James, I think that Brown made a very bad tactical error yesterday when he tried to out play Cameron on being tough. He has hung up by his own petard, he was careful to stick the boot into Blear’s again, but not others. I heard last night that Hazel Blear’s local Labour association have stuck two fingers up at him and said she will be their candidate at the next GE. If Brown tries to have a pix and mix purge of Labour MP’s, he faces further rebellion from the PLP and the grassroots.
The Labour party needs it activists to do the ground work, and he could face a further backlash on that front. What he doesn’t need right now, is a running battle with individual associations. Apparently the meeting on Monday night with the PLP did not go well either, he tried to blame this whole mess on the media! We have seen some real passion amongst Labour MP’s over the future of Michael Martin, there are going to be some wounds that need healed there too.
Cameron has been tough, and he very clearly pointed out the ways that a Conservative MP can be deselected at our Euro campaign launch. IRRC, ConHom reported that soundings from one Conservative Association were not encouraging because they didn’t seem interested in deselecting one of the named and shamed MP’s. But it’s a bit rich after all the previous complaints about CCHQ attempting to impose their will on individual local associations. At the end of day, Cameron knows how jealously they guard their independence and right to choose their candidates.
162 RBH
Didn’t the David Niven film also have a young James Robertson Justice as the doctor? Super film, I’d like to see that again
163 - Can you get to Salford and back by 1:30?
161, is a Matter of Life and Death the one where (I think) he’s been killed and has to persuade angels/Heaven etc to let him live again?
Not that into films, but the Guns of Navarone is excellent.
164 One idea was to base the multi member constituencies on the Counties.
Many thanks Flash Ghost.I hadn’t spotted that.Will try and enliven a few markets on the European elections.
164. Hmm what’s worse, one wonders…parliamentary corruption remaining hidden, or it being exposed leading to endless discussion about that most tedious of subjects, PR?
McPoison not expelled from Labour…
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/05/damian-mcbride-is-not-being-expelled-from-labour.html
167 - James
Blears will definitly miss PMQ’s - left out in the cold? Allow Gordon to make one of his surprise announcements to a planted Q?
167 Can you get to Salford and back by 1:30?
Perhaps. With the aid of a large artillery piece in London and Manchester, cross country ballistic transit would be possible in minutes. Does our hanky hatted and bladder waving colleague have some news?
GE 2010 still available at 1.3 on betfair - get it while you can..
169. That is exactly what the ERS suggest. Cities and counties are ancient natural communities, more natural than some of the single-member monsters created by the current boundary commission…
At the end of the paper I linked, the ERS give example groupings of existing constituencies.
What Salford Labour cllrs have stated yesterday.
“The public has the right to expect the highest standards of behaviour from its elected representatives. They should not do anything which would bring their position and/or office into disrepute”.
http://tinyurl.com/p8zozr
161
There was an angel in, ‘Its a Wonderful Life’ Clarence, but don’t think he wore a white suit.
169
All revolutions are essentially conservative ie. turning the wheel back. This item of modernisation seems to be taking us back to pre 1832.
152. RodCrosby.
That’s an unfair comparison. In the Speakership election, each voter will personally know every candidate.
170. Full list of markets
The vs are on seats not vote share..
Euro Elections 09
BNP To Win a Seat? (Yes = 1.57)
Labour v Lib Dems
Labour v UKIP
Total Labour Seats
Total UKIP Seats (15 or more 2.02)
Its hardly surprising that Brown is running away from an election. This cowardly man has flunked every single electoral test in his entire carrer, as far as I can see. Thats why I’m still not 100% convinced he’ll lead Labour into the general election. Not that Labour will get rid of him, but that he will run away and hide under the duvet at last moment, leaving it some other unfortunate Cabinet member to take and front the campaign.
.
.
PMQs - Cameron would be wise to stay off expenses (stonethrowing greenhouse residents) and get back to the real economy -though that may just provoke more tractor stats. But I expect him to call for an election - under the terms of his agreement with the Sun. (Support me and I will do whatever you say).
Nick will be able to do Gurkhas again if he wants to or perhaps something topical like SATs - when will they be abolished in England.
Any ideas?
176. depends what you mean by counties, of course. Some are monstrosities of the Sixties or even later.
180. And in the Labour leadership and Deputy leadership election?
172. I have no doubt at all that McBride is still working for Labour. Their strategy remains completely unchanged.
179. We could of course go back to counties electing several MPs, but on a FPTP basis…in the same way that multi-member local authority wards do now.
deleted. duplicate
168 — kind of. To be precise, Niven plays a WW2 pilot who is *supposed* to die when his plane crashes but lives on, as a result of a Heavenly clerical error. A friendly but relentless angel is dispatched to rectify this mistake, much to Niven’s objection, and he, his friends and girlfriend end up having to argue his case, argue for his life, before a celestial court. The plot inevitably sounds like silly whimsy when you describe it but the movie has earned its place among the classics.
On topic: Not sure if this has already been posted, but Matt (who has been on superb form recently) has excelled himself today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Democracy in its death throes?
http://tonysharp.blogspot.com/2009/05/consequences-of-letting-speaker-dictate.html
180. What about Marty Hopkirk in that sixties TV series “Randall and Hopkirk (deceased)”?
Blears will be on her way.
And listening to the interviews with alan duncan this morning, he’s hopelessly compromised In his present role.
162 MD
I had no intention of impinging on Gargantuan Artillery spectaculars, reserved for the dispatch of notable miscreants, but I was seeking greater public involvement - an ad hoc grassroots participation.
191 Richard Nabavi
Do you (or any other PBer) know what happened to Marf?
191 - That is simply brilliant.
tim’s Manchester Labour. I wonder if he’s got any inside news on Blears?
Latest expenses scandal….
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/lord-nelsons-menage-a-trois-expenses-shown-in-household-accounts_100194947.html
190 RBH
A bit like Heaven can Wait (I think)with Warren Beatty
Of course, if we’re going to talk about angels on film then mention must be made of 1987’s ‘Wings of Desire’ (Der Himmel uber Berlin), a German classic which later suffered the indignity of being Hollywoodised as a Nicholas Cage vehicle (’City of Angels’).
The angels in ‘Wings of Desire’ wear *black*, though…
199, yes — the plot for ‘A Matter of Life and Death’ has been recycled a few times.
193.What about all the rest? If Duncan has to go over his lawn, then we really should see a root and branch clear out of the Cabinet, including the PM.
200 - As do those in Dogma.
200 -
There was IMO the terrible one with (thinks) John Travolta. Was it called ‘Angel’ ?
201 - But no doubt as usual we shall pay for removing the roots and branches.
If Blears quits her cabinet position, she gets to make a resignation statement - unless Brown sacks her first
By the way Gordon Brown gave an interview to GMTV this morning
You can watch it here…
http://www.gm.tv/index.cfm?articleid=34794
Antifrank @133
As a member of the Tory herd, I do agree with Polly on the idea that we need fewer placemen and better quality.
However, I think that the number of MPs issue is relatively irrelevant. What we need are the option of recall, and mandatory reselection procedures. The cannon fodder are in safe seats, and they need to face a meaningful election.
176, although Old Trafford is confirmed as the initial test site for my brilliant space cannon, it shall be constructed in Yorkshire and there is no prototype in Lancashire.
.
.
Are Sheffield Forgemasters still in business?
198 ‘They paid out up to 156 pounds 4s 4d a week - around 11,000 pounds in today’s money’
Wow. I bet some of 2009 troughers wish they could get away with claiming that - Ed Balls would be so porky he’d need a forklift truck to get out and about.
A terrible movie starring John Travolta? That doesn’t narrow things down very much…
I think the one where he played an angel is called ‘Michael’. There is an unrelated movie called ‘Angel’ but I don’t think it has any angels in it. This is getting confusing..!
(Question: if Travolta is such a devout Scientologist, is he still allowed to play a [Christian] angel?)
Haven’t seen ‘Dogma’, but I should…
211 Battlefield Earth is a classic…
207 A:
that would be a system preyed upon by a party which did not ‘play by the rules’.
Witness the ‘machine politics’ used with devastating effect by Labour and not reported to the public by the ‘fourth estate’ until the machine started to break down. The lobby system is destroying our democracy. The voter has been betrayed by politicians and media alike.
212, Most certainly! Unfortunately for all the wrong reasons…
.
.
Oh dear, Nicholas Winterton has the second question at PMQs. Wont help the Tory image.
GoHF and other interested Parties.I have put up a few prices on the EU elections on Betfair for smallish stakes and with larger mistakes.
http://www.order-order.com/2009/05/jonah-brown-visits-sellafield-nuclear-leak-discovered/
We should ban Brown from visiting Trident. The risk is simply too great.
On the other hand, we should smuggle him into Iran.
Of course, it’s possible to learn as much about moviemaking — what to do, what *not* to do — from a really bad movie as well as a really good one.
(And the same applies to politicians as well.)
200 Redbrandedhorse - Heaven Can Wait was originally filmed as Here Comes Mr Jordan in 1941, with another film called Heaven Can Wait in 1943 (which had an entirely different plot from later film of same title), Matter of Life & Death in 1946 so the former may have influenced the latter.
Death Takes a Holiday in 1934 (remade very badly as Meet Joe Black) was an early film that might of kicked off the ideas.
9.John Rentoul - ““But if Labour changed its leader again it would be neither wise nor right to resist the clamour for a general election soon afterwards. The candidates in a leadership election would have to pledge to go to the polls soon. If there is a coup this summer, then, the new prime minister would have to go to the country in the autumn. But I sense no appetite on Labour’s part for bringing forward their next appointment with their constituents.”
That is why I think if Brown is pushed, it will be over the summer, and then the new leader/PM would have to go to the polls in the Autumn. Rentoul might be right about the fact that many in the PLP don’t fancy a date with the electorate any time soon. But I also think that Brown’s handling of the whole expenses issue has been woeful, and like Martin, even his own PLP are losing confidence and any respect they had in him fast.
Listening to him yesterday in full me,me,me mode, he is yet again looking at what needs to be done through the prism of his career needs, rather than those of his party. I don’t think we have seen the end of the story when it comes to the expenses culture that has grown up under this government. Someone will break cover and challenge him on this. Brown is also in a very weak position when it comes to leaving a GE to the last minute. He has not got his own mandate, the public know he was going to go to the polls two years ago until the polls turned against him. John Major had his own mandate within 18 months of being elected leader and PM.
213. A bit much to suggest the lobby system is destroying democracy, but it has definitely been an important factor in reducing the effective scrutiny of government.
And with the mainstream media having acquiesced in becoming a soft arm of the government propaganda machine, the corruption and incompetence now so painfully visible has been able to flourish much more easily. It should be abolished.
219, ah, many thanks for the chronology clarification! ‘Here Comes Mr Jordan’ was by Frank Capra, I think..?
Absolutely right about ‘Death Takes a Holiday’ and its dire remake as well.
201. ChristinaD. If Alan Duncan has to go over the gardening, forget the cabinet, Brown should resign over Sky Sports. It’s a ridiculous standard.
Lansley and Maude should go. Blears, Straw, Darling, Hoon should also go. I have slightly more sympathy for Balls-Cooper - while they flipped, they flipped with a change in circumstance most of the time.
If Duncan goes, then so do Nick Brown, Dawn “Jacuzzi” Butler and half the government. I do wish that I could get better odds on Butler losing her seat next year. The bookies are being very mean.
On thread, I see absolutely no point in betting on next Speaker because the market is so crowded and so many of the runners look, on closer inspection, lame or unwilling to run.I find it amusing that Nick Palmer continues his defence of Bercow. The problem that most intelligent Tories have with Bercow is that he sides with the corrupt and incompetent Labour government.
O/T but the foreign labour dispute is rumbling on - ‘British jobs for British workers’ rears it’s ugly head again.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/humber/8058822.stm
211 RBH
You’re right it was Michael. Intriguing point about Scientology. I was going to mention Battlefield Earth but Edp beat me to it. That was truely aweful (in the modern definition of the word) however the book was OK in a juvenile sort of way.
I think the concept of learning good things (and making money) from a terrible story/film/play was very well done in The Producers.
224. On that subject, there seems to be some evidence accumulating that employers are sacking British workers and keeping on the immigrant ones (see today’s FT) which is a recipe for serious problems…
220. ChristinaD. Brown will be busy pushing the “economy will recover” line privately. His (potential) enemies are weakened - Straw, Darling, Mandelson and Hoon are all sleazy. While Johnson and Harman are stronger due to being relatively clean (at least I’ve not seen any Harman dirt), it would require cabinet heavyweights to unite to push Gordo out.
Labour are so stupid and weak and incompetent that they will fall for the recovery line. Unless something really big comes in and causes a lot of damage to Brown personally - the expenses have weakend everyone in the PLP.
223 Why is Balls OK because his circumstances changed, but Lansley not?
Surely the resignation of a cabinet / shadow cabinet member should depend on more than whether you happen to like them.
224 EdP
The expenses scandal is (hopefully) more or less over, with all the worst troughers outed.
This is the worst possible time for all the main parties for a new BJ4BW protest.
Until now the expenses probably meant UKIP benefitting most. With widespread coverage of a new BJ4BW issue the pendulum amongst the minor parties could swing back to the BNP.
222 No not Capra - Alexander Hall.
Here comes Mr Jordan had a sequel, Down to Earth which I saw on BBC2 years ago. That was remade as Xanadu with Olivia Newton John while tile was re-used in the Chris Rock remake of Here Comes Mr Jordan/HCW in late 90’s.
221 R
You may be right, but I’d just listened to the BBC and was feeling rather splenetic
228. Adam Smith. I don’t like Balls. I have a small sum wagered on him to be next Chancellor, but it doesnt alter my perception that Balls-Cooper are slightly less guilty than others. My perception is that Lansley just flipped, Balls and Cooper had elections, kids and stuff to justify their shifting of home.
“Don’t be stupid, be a smarty, come and join the Nazi Party!”
OMG, the things Mel Brooks got away with..! And even ‘The Producers’ was tame compared to his subsequent ‘Hitler Rap’ (”Hello people / You know me / I used to run a little place called Germany…”) performed in full Nazi regalia.
Sorry if already posted - Paul Waugh has tweeted that Hazel Blears is on her way to Salford but is scheduled to speak at 1330 about planning…
Resigning?
The BBC can have stability of a five year fixed finance plan: a reduction of 10% a year for each of the five years. It might concentrate the minds of those Troughers for Truth.
Oddly I think recent events may save Brown for a bit longer. A lot of MPs will be even less inclined to face the polls and many more must now feel they are at real risk.
If the Euros are bad Labour MPs will be able to blame it on the expenses row and I expect they will be able to point to disappointing resuits for the Tories aswell.
If I were Hazel Blears I would point out, loudly and repeatedly, that I was doing exactly what other members of the Cabinet were doing e.g. Darling, Balls, Cooper etc and that clearly if that behaviour was unacceptable for her it was unacceptable for all. I might even resign now rather than wait to be sacked. Then we could have the delicious spectacle of a reshuffle now followed by one after the Euro elections. Either way, she needs to tell Brown to put up or shut up.
230 — “No not Capra - Alexander Hall.”
Whoops, I must be confusing ‘Here Comes Mr Jordan’ with ‘Mr Smith Goes to Washington’… (:embarrassed:)
At least that brings us back to the subject of politics!
“by their deeds shall ye know them”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/05/damian-mcbride-is-not-being-expelled-from-labour.html
Car Crash Gordo GMTV, oh and lying Gordo too! He really is a PR disaster! He just told Andrew Castle on every point, “YOU ARE WRONG, I AM RIGHT, I KNOW WHAT THE PUBLIC WANT, YOU TALK SHIT”
Also, he keeps boasting about suspending Labour MP’s! Well Gordo you are the only one with MP’s claiming for non-existant mortgages. What a retard!
OT
For those interested great vid of the shuttle undocking from Hubble for the last time
http://www.youtube.com/profile?v=n2GH5rYf2Ko&user=NASAtelevision
Important post by URW at 27 (4:22am), especially the last paragraph:
This leaves a mere 550 Seats for CON+LAB and that should be the attacking point for everyones’ betting.The Spread midpoint is 572.
22 seats is quite a big margin of error. Even if the LibDems end up doing worse than URW’s estimate of 56 seats, it’s very unlikely that they’ll do so badly as to make up that 22-seat discrepancy.
Something, therefore, has to give. I don’t see much scope for many Lab/Con seats to come out of URW’s guesses of SNP 18, PC 4, Others 4.
Interesting - looke like Frank is interested but worried about Labour support.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/05/speaker-bites.html
What a state of affairs where a Labour MP is worried about getting support from his own party for election to one of the most important offices in the Commons.
211 There is also another Heaven Can Wait - Warren Beatty as a dead quarterback who keeps popping back to Earth in other people’s bodies.
I thought it was great - but was about 11 at the time!
220/227 Its obvious that Gordon’s bouncy step and grins last night was because he believes that he can now resolve the Expenses stuff in voters minds through process (his comfort zone) including putting in new dividing lines on constitutional change with the Tories, he can have committees and commissions which stop Cameron from gaining advantage through action.
It provides a new G20 type opportunity for him, distracting public from bad news and showing him doing what it takes. We will hear a lot about action “I am taking”, while nothing actually happens.
237 - Cyclefree
YES YES YES Bring it on
Morning all,
I see the Telegraph is keeping the stories coming. Have we got the first Libdem who has crossed the line in Ian Willis?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5351198/MPs-expenses-Phil-Willis-spent-thousands-on-a-flat-where-his-daughter-now-lives.html
Incidentally, is there a full breakdown of the Brown proposals because I have a sense that this is just another Brown con? By pre-empting Kelly he will have potentially prejudiced the findings of the Kelly Report if these arrangements carry on for any period (let alone any cost considerations regarding changing the system twice).
There are also articles on James Gray, Jim Sheridan and Ian Davidson.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/
IPSOS MORI ???
All,
Are we getting an Ipsos Mori poll today ?
thanks
“The only winners in this race will be the bookies.”
Wise words indeed Mike - these are the mug punter lists much loved by bookies. They remind me of trying to pick a Grand National winner without the comfort of a place market.
That said, I couldn’t resist taking Corals’ stand-out price of 8/1 against Berkow and selling the same bet on Betfair overnight at odds of only 4.7/1 - thereby providing me with a nice free bet on one of the favourites.
There’s a lot to be said for free bets - I’m still relishing Caveman’s great spot last night on the Glasgow NE by-election, when he suggested backing both the SNP at 1.75/1 and Labour at 1.375/1 - this looks like free money to me.
re 248. I’m checking and I’ll post here when I have confirmation either way.
249 PfP
On the by election bets, does that mean if you put a tenner on both, you’re guaranteed at least £13.75 return?
Still trying to work out all these different betting methods.
Thinking about Gordo and GMTV, I can’t believe that he is so thick that he gets the whole mode wrong, not just on public anger, but that GMTV is nicely nicely friendly friendly presented morons!
He “attacked” Andrew Castle questioning as if he was dealing with Paxo, getting all aggressive and party political is fine when getting Paxo or Humphreys (not that Gordo would know cos he runs away from them), but on GMTV it is a completely different gig.
It is like Metallica turning up to play a Hannah Montana gig and going with heavy stuff for 2 hrs!
I wonder how many votes he loses everytime he does one of these interviews?
Also, struck me, I wonder if Gordo big announcement was going to be all these changes on GMTV on Monday, but had to cancel due to trouble at mill with the Speaker?
Finally, if the Currant Bun and others keep bashing the GE drum, not sure “do you want chaos, you don’t do you?” argument is going to fly! People want a friggin revolution!
244 P:
based on another similar film about a boxer who meets his end before his alloted time.
The Warren Beatty film was not too shabby
End result - Quantum Leap
242 Richard Nabavi.I’m a lot older and wiser since 4.22 am.
No.Only joking.You concede my figures for NATS and OTHERS which just leaves my figure of 56 for the Lib Dems.
TBH I had it in at 55 but cheated to make the figure up to 100 against Con+Lab.
Here is the evidence.On the Line my first Sell was at 55.0 which did surprise me.Undeterred I went on to Sell at 58.0 and then 60.0.Since then I have come back with Buys at 53.0 and 54.0…so 56 doesn’t seem at all extreme.
Thanks for your modification.Respected to the max as always.
252 O:
Medieval Popes responded to having their authority questioned with more equanimity than the ‘Great Gordo’
And where’s the dipthong?
204.Antifrank,
Don’t they always?
227.Ken, I am waiting to see who Brown deems to have broken the rules and needs to be deselected. I am betting that it won’t be any of his mates.
I thought that if Balls and Cooper were deemed to be okay on this issue, then Lansly has to be too. He did have family decisions which coincided with his housing arrangements change.
Re Blears and where she is - I expect if anything is coming there then it will be announced at 11.59am or planted in the first question at PMQs..
Dividing lines, Dividing lines, Got to get dividing lines.
I’m hard, I’m fair, They’re fops, They don’t care
Let’s announce something, Let’s say anything, They’d do nothing
They so don’t care
Dividing lines, Dividing lines, Got to get dividing lines
252. To be fair, Andrew Castle is one of those annoying people who I always feel live giving a slap whenever I see him on TV, but I take your point about Browns behaviour in these kinds of “soft focus” interviews. I bet Brown has his advisers tearing their hair out behind the camers.
249 PfP
Glasgow NE: Will Hills have put up a market with the SNP at a stunning 5-1
Won’t last!
Margaret Moran to get Rantzened….
Rantzen confirms she will stand in Luton South…
re 259. We don’t know yet whether there is going to be a by election. Martin is being urged to stay on as an independent MP.
Good Morning Glasgow NE SNP @ 5/1 Hedge Betters Worldwide !!
WOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
262 Mike.What is your guesstimate for Lib Dem Seats ?
262. Does that mean the bet is void if there is no by election?
260/261, hope this doesn’t set a precedent.
262 - That would just be typical of Labour abuse of constitutional convention
Brown is clearly trying to keep enough votes hanging around for the No Confidence debate…
262.
Gin,
What do you think the Ipsos Mori Poll will show up - you were fairly spot on with your predictions last week ?
252. Peter , where were those odds on the Glasgow NE by election
So McBride isn’t being kicked out of the Labour Party
What do you have to do to be asked to leave?
Meanwhile, outside the City of Westminster:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8058708.stm
Japan is in Depression - a 10% fall in output in one year. Extraordinarily horrible.
263.But does Rantzen have any connection with that constituency? I think that will matter this time around.
Why do I get the feeling that the poor residents of Luton South could be swapping one poor MP for another one…
268 scrapheap - Presumably
Peter Oborne in full on rant on Sky…
.
.
Is McBride still a civil servant? If not did he resign with pay in lieu if notice or was he summarily dismissed?
265.Mike, I heard that last night, but isn’t it Foulkes that is leading the calls for this? And will this just be to the next GE, or will he put himself up for re-election?
He needs to be careful this is not seen as a West Coast Labour move.
275 ChristinaD. Apparently Rancid, like Moron, has property in Southampton which qualifies her for Luton South admirably !!
.
.
Surely Lorrain Chase would be better than Ester.
Further to 262
Now down to 3.5/1. No doubt it will fall further.
Get on quick!
271. MORI is always too hard to call as its usually quite volatile. I can’t imagine it’ll be very good for ther Tories.
282, I nominate Diane Youdale, Jet from the original Gladiators.
5/1 S.N.P. is a gift labour slight, but only slight jollies for me, think I priced it 11/10 labour 11/8 S.N.P. 4/1 independent 100/1 others.£100 max bet btw.
I don’t know very much about her.
But from her Wikipedia entry, unlike many celebrities Esther Rantzen seems to have a very good record of championing pet political causes - and enough managerial ability to implement them well.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esther_Rantzen
Setting up a hugely successful charity like Childline, in my opinion, makes her far more eligible to become an MP than most of the party hack lobby fodder.
I am not saying she would be a great Parliamentarian, or that I support her candidacy. But it is definitely too early to write her off.
236 -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k
this one ?
Enjoy
281.JackW, I think that she is misreading the public mood on this.
287, I agree she’d be better than the average celebrity, but it smacks of “Vote for me, I’m on telly.” She’s never been interested in running before, has she?
I’ve got another betting question.
On the Glasgow NE by-election, Ladbrokes are offering 2.25 for SNP and 2.37 for Labour.
Am I right in thinking if you stick a tenner on each you’re guaranteed at least £22.50 back?
If I’m wrong can someone explain it to me. Cheers.
287 - So why doesn’t she join a political party? I think politicians should become well known for their political activity not try to engage in political activity off the back of being well known.
.
.
No convention. When Selwyn Lloyd stood down as speaker he said that he would stay as an MP for a few days to show that he was an ordinary Member of Parliament.
MORI NEWS
I’ve just had this email from Julia Clark at MORI
289 Jack W. Much will depend if Moron survives to the election. If she does then Rancid will do a Martin Bell and turf her out.
Sean Fear will be our local man on the spot.
.
.
No need to shout Mike.
This cartoon made me chuckle…
http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00175/cartoon200509_175939d.jpg
290 Morris Dancer
One of the things we hear all the time (and which I agree with entirely) is how we want fewer ‘machine politicians’ - how we need more people who have worked outside politics before deciding to stand.
I don’t see not wanting to become an MP at the age of 16 as a disqualification.
Ego and a certain narcissism is of course institutional in politics, and also in celebrity. But I see no reason for celebrities to be discouraged from standing - especially if they have a record of public service.
294. Interesting. So no MORI poll until the end of the month then?
So our next scheduled poll could be ICM/Sunday Telegraph at the weekend?
David Hughes - Lord Hattersley has the wrong end of the stick, again
Watching Newsnight last night, I saw that there was no one available from the Home Office to take Paxman’s questions again. But that turned out to be a plus. I thought that Michael Mates was quite good, and Paxman changed his demeanour as well, led to a much better and more enlightening interview.
I’d like to thank whoever tipped Kris Allen to win American Idol at 3.55. Now down to a little over 2, and I’ll be laying shortly.
291 councilhousetory - Yes, unless an independent stands and wins, which is unlikely but not impossible.
If you are thinking of betting along those lines, check out the William Hill odds on the SNP quickly - you may still be able to get a better deal there, but it won’t last long.
Hills still haven’t paid out on the speaker
295 Ooppps …. I’m talking to myself again !!
Jack W @ 295 “If she does then Rancid will do a Martin Bell and turf her out”
Seems highly unlikely. Rantzen will be humiliated. To ‘do a Martin Bell’ she’d need the active co-operation of the Conservative and LibDem parties both in not standing and lending their local workers in support.
People seem to have forgotten that Martin Bell had all this (courtesy of Alistair Campbell) and was a stooge candidate, not really a clean hands independent.
Effectively he was a front candidate for New Labour under false colours.
295.Jack, agree, but just the thought of this type of high profile candidate might make the local Labour association think twice about supporting Moran as their candidate next time?
304.And I thought that you were trying to confuse me, not that hard to do it must be said.
I would be shocked if Moron stands again
305.I always forget that point when I think of the Martin Bell victory.
305. Rantzen’s ego trip over the last couple of days is simply embarassing.
She seems to be betting on a variant of Chesterton’s maxim, viz ‘once people stop believing in politicians, they don’t believe in nothing, they believe in anything [including self-obsessed celebrity nobodies]‘
292 James Burdett
Well, she seems to be campaigning mainly on an anti-sleaze ticket, and all the main parties are sleazy.
I believe in the party system broadly but would welcome a sizable minority of independents - around 10% of Parliament. This would give extra emphasis to single issue campaigning (which is the way most people engage directly with any given controversial political issue) and help keep the main parties honest.
EDIT: I doubt Rantzen would win, essentially for reasons stated above. Luton was marginal before the expenses scandal, and the Conservatives will not let the opportunity of a gain go by without fielding a candidate. Hamilton was a gift for New Labour in 1997, not in his own constituency, but across the country - he brought Tony’s “whiter than white” image into focus. Moran will not do the same for the Conservatives. Nevertheless, I think people judge celebrities too harshly sometimes.
William Hills’ odds still look generous to the SNP, but they’re a damn sight more sensible than Ladbrokes or Sky Bet. How on earth can they rate Labour as odds against in this seat? Needless to say I’m gorging myself on both like an MP in John Lewis.
298, but that’s the thing. She hasn’t decided to stand because she has a keen interest in politics and wants to make a difference, she’s using her celebrity to try and exploit current resentment with the political class.
Now, Rantzen would make a better MP than many of those sitting and far better than your average celebrity. But I’m deeply worried it may set a precedent for people being voted in because of TV popularity.
302
Cheers for the response. I’m just looking at some of the betting sites and the difference in odds are quite marked in some cases. I can see why some of you get excited. Money to be had.
308 - Indeed in which case it removes the only reason for Rantzen.
262. Richard , well spotted, unfortunately down to 7/2 by time I got there.
308 Surely Moron will be meeting her new chums in Holloway … and won’t be available to stand.
Ok well I’ve checked through and I can’t find a clear breakdown of what is now proposed by Brown to replace the ACA.
Nick Palmer suggested earlier that they will get a £25 per day subsistence allowance which over a month (let’s say 16 days) totals £400 per month (hmmmm just like the food allowance).
So that’s the same £4800 per annum max
Add to that up to £15k mortgage interest relief/ rent which can be easily maximised by selling their current property/ discontinuing their current rent and getting new better accomodation.
Then we have let’s say £2k in utility bills on average but potentially for more substantial properties it would be £3k
Then we have Council Tax up to what another £2k
And then you add on any service charges / ground rents / telephone calls etc.
So by my rough calculations that still comes out at 24k or more should MPs choose to claim it. Do we know if the allowance ceiling still exists?
So in effect there will likely be no saving and it doesn’t take an accountant to shuffle around what is claimed to ensure that MPs are no worse off. They buy their flat screen TVs, their moat cleaning, their glitter toilet seats and dodgy videos out of their salary and charge the rest on expenses.
By failing to restrict which property can be claimed for (i.e. no switching and either all claim for their constituency or for their London accomodation but not a mixture of both) and by not limiting on timescales within which the interest/ rent relief is claimed, I don’t see that there is any improvement here. After all who cares how the money is spent, surely the overall cost is the issue?
Furthermore, is this £25 ‘overnight subsistence’ allowance the repackaging (in a smaller form) of the opaque allowance that Brown was trying to push through a couple of weeks ago with his ridiculous Youtube appearance?
I think these proposals need to be looked at in detail because IMO there is no ‘New Dawn’ as the Guardian try to trumpet it last night in what Brown has proposed.
Prime Ministers Questions
Cameron and Clegg should use there combined eight questions today to ask each time “Will you call a general election” After eight attempts at answering the law of Brown Average’s is that he might just say Yes !
Got election literature from the BNP, Labour and Lib Dems today. BNP stuff is quite good, again. They’re getting quite slick.
Just noticed the Labour spiel is directed to me personally. I wonder how they get my name… I’m not signed up to Labour in any way (as you might expect). All the Labour stuff is anti-Tory, brief Lib Dem mention, nothing about the BNP.
305/306 GeoffH/ChristinaD. I’m sorry Geoff but you are badly mis-reading the effect Rancid will have. This is very close to my patch and she been all over the local media like a rash gaining endorsements and public acclaimation. If Moron survives then it is she who will be humiliated. It’ll be a re-run of Tatton and Wyre Valley.
Christina. Very likely.
312 antifrank - I agree, but since Scottish politics is an enigma wrapped in a miasma, I think it’s safest just to hedge. (I was one of the many slightly singed by Glenrothes).
313. politics should be available for everybody and if celebs think they can make a difference that way then good on them. Rantzen seems to be a perfectly legitimate independent candidate.
Morning.. sorry if already posted but interesting That Betty B has her tuppence worth http:
//www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5352483/MPs-expenses-ministers-cared-only-for-perks-of-power-says-Baroness-Boothroyd.html
She blames ministers greed.
Interesting times we live in, it’s extraordinary for a former speaker to comment on these matters.
324 - sorry about that. Here’s a smaller one http://tinyurl.com/bettyspeaks
323, I would never want to bar someone from standing because they’re a celebrity, but I’m less than impressed with a celebrity who has had no previous intention of standing seeking to do so solely to exploit present disaffection and anger.
On the plus side, as I’ve said repeatedly, at least it’s Rantzen and not Jordan.
323. Yes but we know they won’t make a difference. If the problem is lack of substance in politics, how will electing people whose basic attribute is lack of substance help?
Pierce and Bradby on “This Morning” talking about expenses, and of course the issue of an GE came up. Although Pierce said that Gordo would run away from this, Bradby said if the call was loud enough eventually it would be difficult to ignore. He thought an Autumn election might happen.
Also interesting to note, Fern Britain, “housewife” to the nation, not understanding the Gordo spin about end to a “Gentleman’s Club” (as in Tory Toffs), she took it another way, the Gentleman’s Club that Gordo is head of and has been involved with for 30+ years and so he is part of the problem and must have known this kind of thing went on as he has been about in HoC longer than the other leaders…..Woophs, maybe the spin is too subtle for some!
Morris Dancer @ 313
“Now, Rantzen would make a better MP than many of those sitting and far better than your average celebrity.”
You mean like Glenda Jackson? Not much of a precedent is it?
322 - I stayed clear of Glenrothes. I had a sixth sense about that seat. On the other hand, I made money in Glasgow East despite betting like a palooka. Perhaps I am due a tumble (the risk, I guess, is that a prominent independent will stand, though I can’t particularly see why they would in a seat where there is now no obvious trougher).
I am hedging in Glasgow North East, but in line with stjohn’s advice the other day of seeking to maximise the value, I have done so with a bias towards a Labour win.
Interesting…
http://twitter.com/nickbrownmp/status/1857558370
Chief Whip letting slip the election truth?
I see that George Young is now favourite to be Speaker. Tories are STUPID if they vote for him, and walk into this political beartrap.
As tim has rightly pointed out, Young is another old Etonian, a baronet, hugely wealthy, sired by a Peregrine on a Knatchbull-Huggeson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_George_Young,_6th_Baronet
If he is elected it means in about a year the country will have a posh Old Etonian Speaker, a posh old Etonian prime minister, and a posh old Etonian Mayor of London. The Cabinet will also be full of Etonians, Wykehamists and Harrovians, we will have a trustafarian Chancellor.
This is very dangerous for Tories. If anything - ANYTHING goes wrong with the economy, the voters will look at these smug ambassadors for privilege and revolt: the first Tory government in twelve years could be swept away after one term by the sans-culottes.
Toffiness remains a problem for Tories. They must not idiotically compound it, and hand priceless ammunition to the left, by electing a posh Tory Etonian Speaker. Derrrrr!
.
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Gwynwa [317] - There won’t be any charges until at least 2015 for such a complicated case.
331 James Burdett
WOW. Is that a genuine twitter account? If so it seems we are on for a H2 2009 election!
What is Gordon Brown playing at?
EDIT: This smells very fake to me.
Back from Brno, took the netbook so was able to follow political developments and the Test via wi fi… Was quite shocked to see Labour at 20% in the polls. Pleased that the BNP doesn’t seem to be picking up too many votes… yet… and the Tories haven’t been hit quite as badly in the polls. While I didn’t think the Tory abuses were generally quite as bad as the Labour ones (ie further from being illegal) and Cameron’s response has been better, I did wonder if the stories about moats etc would gain more resonance.
jsfl @ 318, surely one big problem of a “quick fix” on expenses is that MPs currently in office will demand to be no worse off. So however it’s sold as an overall reform, I am sure the claims will be no smaller.
What needs to be done is to set the expenses regime for next Parliament, when MPs will be elected “on a new contract”. Any who don’t like the remuneration package on offer, needn’t stand for election.
.
.
So Pickles it is then, Sean
334 - The fact it has exactly one twitter, total, has alarm bells ringing! And come on, would a chief whip be that silly?
320
Got LAbour’s today. BNP and UKIP 2 weeks ago.
No LibDem/Cons yet.
Labour starts with :
“It’s Gordon Brown’s leadership that will get us through these tough times. Labour is the only party .. hard working families … standing up for Britain etc ”
Name from Electoral Register.
And attacks LibDems and Cons on the back page..page 6.
On page 2 they attack the BNP… so obviously an issue.
If the leaflet is anything to go by, toast.
331, 334
Could be talking about By-election for Martin’s seat
And why now?
Trying to affect the markets?
332. SeanT - can you provide some evidence for this ‘toffness is a problem’ claim, please?
Startlingly, 100% correct analysis from Sean T.
Young will not get the job.
Cameron will be mad to support him.
The four favourites yeaterday morning were Haselhurst Young Campbell and Field.
I’ll offer £50 at evens that none of them get it.
204 - Christina D.
The point I made about Duncan being horribly compromised referred to his current post, not his status in the Cabinet.
Jack W @ 321 “It’ll be a re-run of Tatton and Wyre Valley”
No it won’t. Since Luton South is a marginal the obvious way to send a message about troughing Moran is to elect the candidate from the party that was the strongest last time. That candidate will have clean hands since he/she is not currently in Westminster claiming expenses.
I’ve already explained the special circumstances that allowed Martin Bell to pull it off. If there had been a New Labour and a LibDem standing in Tatton he would have come fourth.
And Wyre Valley was an election that had nothing to do with sleaze but the special local issue of hospital closure.
I don’t care how many pictures Rantzen has had in the local papers in the past week, she’ll not make any advance against candidates from either the Conservative or Lib/Dem cause in a three-way marginal.
337 - True, however I thought I’d bring it to everyone.
339 - Why would that trouble a new speaker?
338 - I got a Labour newsletter / Party Political material yesterday from Labour, another effort that looked like it had been put together by a 5 year old on a computer of a similar age. Really really pathetic, even the BNP one was better!
Lib Dem’s seemed to have “lost my address” as no material from them and didn’t get any last year either! Do they want my vote? obviously not that much, or can’t afford any leaflets.
O/T Mike any chance of a new thread for PMQ’s?
343
It wouldn’t, but he might be ‘playing ducks’n'drakes’
334 Yes please!
336. From a Tory, rightwing perspective, Field is the ideal candidate. Sure he’s a Labour MP, but he’s independent and sympathetic to make rightwing opinions - he is also working class in origin and a man of integrity, respected by all.
Elect him and the Tories look magnanimous, unpartisan, and dignified.
Young would be a disaster, another Tory posho. Terrible PR. If I balk at the idea of another Etonian cemented into power, then how does the average voter feel?
Bercow is a little better. Beith is boring. Maybe someone unexpected will leap from the sol y sombre into the bullring.
We can hope.
Re Nick Brown twitter, Tweetminster thinks it is genuine.
331.
James, How much do you really beleive that Nick Brown Twitter ? H2 would be what month ?
331. Autumn election then? I’ll believe it when I see it!
341 - £50, that much, has your benefits cheque just come through?
342 GeoffH. If you think Bell would have come fourth in Tatton with Labour and Lib Dems standing then there’s little hope you have the political antenae to sus Luton South out if Moron survives.
349 - James
If true it’ll be Nokias all over the room and an open goal for Dave today
.
.
“And come on, would a chief whip be that silly?”
You mean this Nick Brown:
“The man who has been put in charge of investigating questionable expense claims by Labour MPs also claimed £200 a month for “repairs”, £200 a month for “service and maintenance” and £250 a month for a cleaner, without submitting any receipts.
Between 2004 and 2008, Mr Brown, the MP for Newcastle East and Wallsend, claimed a total of £87,708 for his constituency home.
His mortgage interest repayments in 2007-8 totalled £6,600, but Mr Brown claimed a total of £23,068, just £15 below the maximum allowable amount for the year, by including £4,800 for food – the maximum allowable amount – £2,880 for “repairs and insurance”, £2,880 for services, £897.65 for cleaning, £1,640 for phones and £1,810 for utilities.
He did not submit any receipts in that year for utilities, phones, cleaning, services, repairs or food.”
340. Just think about it. Just think. If you don’t understand the problem after five minutes thought - three Tory old Etonians at the very top of British politics, all at once - then you will Never Get It.
Scottishness is to Labour as poshness is to the Conservatives. An essential element, and an electoral handicap, all at once. Discuss.
335. Perhaps but given the abuse wouldn’t it have been a gesture of good faith (I know they show the electorate precious little good faith at any time) to at least cut the costs for the last few months of this Parliament by getting rid of the subsistence part of it (food allowance as was). After all it’s not as if they have been caught with their hands in the till?
Of all the allowances the most ridiculous concept is that MPs need subsistence to feed themselves when they are living in what is long-term accomodation (whether at the constituency or in London). An MP only eats the amount they eat, they don’t eat £400 more just because they have to live in 2 places. It really is taking the p*ss. They even get subsidised bars and restaurants in the Houses Of Westminster. Furthermore, they soon found the money to pay back if required to.
No instead Brown enters with a fanfare and does his usual con-trick. It seems like the same old same old cr*p……
350,351 - I am not really sure whether it is true or not, I am suspicious. It was brought to my attention I thought it was something that punters on here might want to think about.
Lib Dem Voice hinting at something important from their Federal Executive meeting on Monday:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/daily-view-2×2-14848.html#comments
309.Re asking of Btitish workers in favour of immigrants.
More votes for the BNP I suspect.
rogerh
354 - Someone needs to tell Dave as it would be classic if it got mentioned in PMQ’s.
355 - Good point! I forget how generally incompetent and moronic much of the PLP are, having Dawn “The Jacuzzi” Butler as a whip says it all, or as she would say “Init, bruv”
Just a thought, if the ChipMunk gets chucked overboard as the scapegoat for Gordo “War of Troughers”, anybody think that “YouTube if you want to” might bite back?
seanT three comprehensive school graduates at the top of British politics. Similarly shocking?
Are you being a little classist here? Do you really believe in equality of opportunity? Must we have quotas of race, sex, religion and educational establishment?
That is exactly what Harman wants, so you seem a natural supporter.
356. I see - so you have no evidence at all, just your own opinion which you presume to project onto the wider public.
Perhaps we should re-christen you ‘Roger’
A few weeks of the new Speaker actually puts us more in the realms of a November election
With Parliament having an extra long summer holiday this year, a few weeks of actually ’speakering’ would see an election being called at the end of the Party Conference season.
And look how well that went last time Gordon thought about doing it
331.
Nick Brown, Gordon’s pal and Chief Whip would not put that about without a good reason! That has to to be a fake surely??
If not, its nuclear.
331 so the election has been announced via Twitter, rather than by Gordon going to see The Queen.
Labour showing its respect of our constitution once again!
365 - Election can be called during a recess, so we could be looking at September.
358,
Many Thanks
It is interesting to note (check out the comments) that Esther Rantzen clearly passes the ‘Daily Mail’ test
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1183899/Esther-Rantzen-MP-claimed-22-500-treat-dry-rot-partners-home.html
It’s about time for rumours to start about Blears - just before PMQ’s
356. Interesting comments Sean.
I don’t, personally, believe that the next Speaker will be Labour. Something about it just doesn’t chime with me. I think the Commons will be reluctant to do it.
Field would be good, but would he really give up his political viewpoints? He was hugely successful over 10p, would he want to miss his chance to carry on that particular crusade?
I still think Michael Lord is an overlooked but potentially successful candidate.
re 274 Hopi Sen if you’re about I might as well emulate Paddy Power and pay up now. What would you like? Some Parma violets, perchance? Or a box of Charbonnel and Walker’s finest?
349.James, as some said upthread, could it be a by election in Glasgow or elsewhere with all the stuff flying around. Wonder what Austin Mitchell was supposed to have asked?
361. Would backfire badly on him if it’s fake though.
368 - Theoretically - that may be the case but most governments like to get the last bits of parliamentary business tidied up before going to the polls.
I would imagine that if the Brown/Brown plan exists, it will be to wait for the House to resume after the conferences and then see how things are looking.
I also doubt Labour could afford to cancel their conference as well as run a GE campaign
363. Is this a serious point? 90% of the British people were and are educated at comprehensives (like me). So three of these people at the top of politics is… well…. kind of what you’d expect, naturally. In a democracy.
0.0001% of British people are educated at Eton. Three of them at the top of British politics looks horribly like government-by-a-tiny-tiny-elite-who-wear-funny-waistcoats.
If you and runnymede are too dimwitted to see the problem here, that’s up to you; I hope and believe Cameron is a little more switched on, and will be nixing Young’s chances right now.
350 W
Brown would go for an election just after the LP Conference (recalling his triumphs at the conference in ‘08)
Hmm.
Darling was pretty bullish in the Times today.
Maybe they expect the economy to turn round, like Now?!
353 - Absolutely - Bell was helped by Labour and the Lib Dems standing aside but neither could exactly be described as mobilising a formidable local machine behind him; I assume the local parties in both cases hardly need a large hall for their AGMs.
And Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest was perfectly okay despite the Conservatives not standing aside and indeed fighting hard to win in a previously blue seat (he was helped by the Lib Dems deferring but they were clearly the third placed party in that seat).
368.
Really,
Have we ever had an election during the recess?
Do you think it is tactical thinking ie. that a lot of people will be feeling in happy ie. in summer mood rather than having one in the winter when everyone feels gloomy?
Do you think turnout would be better ?
Sorry so many questions !
375, quite. He should ask about its veracity though.
377, Boris is beyond reproach. And if the Speaker’s elected by a Commons with a 60 seat Labour majority they can hardly cry about it, can they?
356 seanT
Sean is right. Of course there’s no problem in principle, provided all three were chosen on their own merits (and as it happens, in this case, that would be true). Sean is not talking about that, he is talking about the political appearances. Why give your opponents free ammunition?
Winning elections is all about damping down as many negatives, whether justified or not, as possible.
Pickles on Daily Politics.
I fully expect his standard media car crash.
363. Thanks for a good laugh!
Speaking of good laughs, I see Labour are already writing off Glasgow NE. Just like they did with Glenrothes.
http://tinyurl.com/ostjg4
“Unwinnable for Labour”, indeed. With a de facto 50% majority. These guys clearly think the electorate are as thick as Martin.
371 BR
OK Ummm, Hazel Blears has fled the country and is shacked up in the South of France in a secret lovenest with Phillip Seymour Hoffman.
(There are probably other, better rumours floating about, but I just thought I’d try that one)
242,254 URW’s reasoning is spot on, but I wonder whether he’s wearing ever so slightly tinted rose-tinted specs.
First why does Robert refer to Spread midpoints? We are selling both Tory and Labour seats here, thereby reducing the profit margin by 5 seats.
Unless the SNP can break through the magic 30%-32% level of support, they ain’t gong to win 18 seats. Fall below 30% to any extent and they very quickly fall back to 10 seats or fewer - I readily concede that should they grab 35%+ of the vote in a GE, they could win considerably more than 18 seats, but right now this figure is quite a big ask. I doubt whether we will see 4 independents winning, 2 more like imho, Respect looks like a spent force to me. Of course we could see dozens of Esther Rantzens running, Heaven forbid, but I rather doubt it. On balance therefore, I sense that “Others” may be overstated by around 5 seats overall.
Taken together, the apparent discepancy of 22 seats is reduced from 22 seats to just 12 seats and we still have the LibDems to worry about!
I think the assumed figure of 55 seats looks about right now, but their eventual tally could be anything between say 35 and 70 seats. Their downside is arguably greater than the upside imho, since the polls at this stage cannot reflect the “sqeeze” factor, which will only really manifest itself on GE day and could affect them quite badly should the contest between their two larger rivals become much closer than at present. If however, the Tories are seen to be romping it, the LibDems could be at the upper end of this range.
My own thinking on this is that one has to be very patient. At some time over the next 12 months, I expect the spreads on both Labour and the Tories to edge a little higher than they are now, obviously at differing times. Achieving a combined selling price of 580 seats (perhaps 220 seats and 360 seats respectively), which is only approximately 10 seats higher than the case being put forward here, would greatly improving the prospects of success.
359
So is Lord Rennard going to repay the £41,678 he claimed for his main residence in London?
377/382.
100% correct my fellow musketeers
382. Exactly right. Why give Labour a two goal advantage in the next election but one?
I can just see the Labour leaflets in 2014: three Etonians in white tie and tails - the PM, the Mayor and the Speaker. All Tories. Meanwhile the country struggles under a mountain of debt….
Terrible PR.
The ideal Speaker from a Tory election-winning perspective is a sympathetic working class independent patriotic highminded unpartisan lefty.
374 - This is the question…
http://twitter.com/AMitchellMP/status/1851084509
351.
Gin you mentioned we may be getting the ICM/Telegraph poll this weekend - Now this one will be really interesting to compare it with the one we have just had from them for the Guardian. I do suspect though that Cameron has had a good week and performed much better than Brown once again . I feel we could see the Poll showing the Tories keeping just above 40. I think it will be something like Con 41, Lab25, Lib 22
“Let me make it clear: this grammar school boy will take no lessons from that public school boy on the importance of children from less privileged backgrounds gaining access to university.”
377. Ah and as usual we resort to insult and bluster when our flimsy arguments are probed, Sean, don’t we?
I’ll give you another chance - please provide some evidence that ‘Toffness’ is a problem for the Conservatives.
In the end we have a Labour marority and they wil do what suits them.
When it comes to an Etonian Speaker, Sean makes a vaild point.
However the counter is that they [Labour and Lib Dems etc.] voted for him - so if they can choose an Etonain as the best man, why not the electorate.
If Cameron needs to set it off further, I am available - very northern, very Tory, probably quite common.
334 wibbler
There could be an explanation. If this IS the real Nick Brown, this is his first twitter - and maybe he doesn’t know it’s public?
394. The Austin Mitchell twitter linked to from Nick B’s site has some interesting entries.
There’ll be a PMQs thread up in about ten minutes
395 - Well he will now…lol
I still very much doubt a 2009H2 election and have money sitting on Betfair’s market for 2010H1 if anyone fancies laying it.
Didn’t Labour push all MPs onto using twitter..maybe it is true?
398
In the words of Bugs Bunny: “What a Maroon!”
Hah!
and first (on this page - but not for long I suspect)
389, when one has been elected by the people of London and another by the MPs (most of whom are Labour) they’d be attacking their own decision and a democratic result.
392, remind me how well Howard did at the last election?
390.So, Austin’s question was entirely focussed on the Speaker’s contest. Makes that reply all the more odd, it must be a fake surely? And I cannot imagine the Labour Chief Whip casually popping up to twitter a reply to this question which effectively announces a GE a few weeks later. Wonder if Austin will reply and query the veracity of this?
Is Sir George wealthy?
He seems to need to max his second home claims each year.
Pickles contradicting himself in consecutive sentences.
399 David H - I thought you were one of those arguing that 2009H2 was fairly likely - have you changed your view in the light of recent events?
405, are you expecting us to criticise his lack of verbal skill, or praise the fact his intra-sentence logic is consistent?
And don’t forget that George Young also voted against MPs revealing details of their outside interests and receipts under £25
If Labour wants to sabotage the Tories they should elect George Young.
Watch the Etonians debate fox hunting and cuts in services while voting themselves and their families £240,000 each.
The fact that some on here can’t recognise that Sean is right is beyond me.
re 380 Wayne, yes several. For instance 1922, 1964, 1974 October
SeanT - 0.0001% is one in a million. Might you have a zero too many behind the decimal point? Is this a result of a comprehensive school education?
408, the fact that you’re speaking about the election of a new Speaker at this time of crisis in terms of tribalism and class warfare is not beyond me, but it remains pathetic.
Good Q’s from Andrew on DP
409.
Thanks
408 Every cut in spending will be the result of Brown economic mismanagement. The country HAS to cut spending to balance the books regardless of which party is in power.
410. Believe it or not, 0.00000000001% was a wild stab in the dark, as to the proportion of the populace that attended Eton.
My maths teacher at Aylestone Comprehensive will be gratified to learn I was only one zero out.
386 PfP.You make a very valid point regarding midpoints.
Let’s look at it another way.The current Sell ponits of Sporting Index are 356+211=567 and I say 550.However the last show from extrabet was 214 for Labour which would improve the situation by three points.
My figures for the Nats and Lib Dems come from the sharp end but I admit my figure for others was plucked out of thin air.
More anon when things are quieter…….
408: If the point of being speaker is to be politically netural..then his political views are of no importance.
Sally: How about a Latvian or Lithuanian speaker?
Do we have any news on whether that Nick Brown twitter was real?
Don’t have a twitter account, so can’t check who he’s following and who his followers are.
408, tim, what ever do you tell them at the job centre that convinces them that you are actively seeking work? I get the impression scanning through this site that you cannot be very devoted in your search for paid employment. Unless of course this is your paid employment.
389. SeanT. Not to forget one who is able to manage (and understand) the constitutional role of the House of Commons and the Speaker.
I just dont think Frank Field is acceptable to Labour - too many enemies. But, he is high minded and is aware of the role of the HoC.
Bercow is a joke put forward by the likes of Nick Palmer, telling us all we really need to know about him.
I’d really prefer someone who is non-partisan and Labour - mainly because it is Labour who really need someone to clear up the mess. They also need someone like that because he will have to tell Gordo to get stuffed on his idiotic illiberal “independent” ideas. FFS it’s the bloody legislature - they are not subservient to the bloody executive.
New thread now up
Richard Nabavi says: 11:00 am “312 antifrank - I agree, but since Scottish politics is an enigma wrapped in a miasma, I think it’s safest just to hedge. (I was one of the many slightly singed by Glenrothes).”
Is not the truth that Scottish politics is a cesspit wrapped in a sewer?
Dizzy thinks - Nick Brown gives General Election date away?
“Someone, in this case the Labour Chief Whip and close friend and ally of Gordon Brown, doesn’t understand how Twitter works.”
oh, tim - go on - test OGH and mention IHT (is that as opposed to OHT?)
Inheritance Tax is the El Alamein of the General Election campaign. Before George mentioned it, you never had a defeat: since he mentioned it, you’ve never had a victory.
Go on - say it again - it’s one of our best messages.
I want you to mention it - again and again and again.
Pretty please - every thread.
(Mr Smithson, please don’t stop him.)
Regarding Sean’s point about Etonianism, I think he’s probably right. I certainly couldn’t give a damn where the Speaker went to school, and it shouldn’t matter, but we all know it will get dragged up, and in a first term Cameron government could be a needless irritation.
Cameron has a good ear for these things.
Brown to bring forward proposals for reform of electoral system…
406. I’m looking for a touch under 1/3 for 2010H1 so I’m not ruling out 2009H2 by any means but think that the sort of price bordering the spread represents value.
2009H2 only looks possible in the light of a change of Labour leader. I really don’t see the machanism for Brown to be forced into it unless he removes the whip from 30+ MPs (not impossible) and then they vote against a motion of confidence (highly unlikely). Brown is much more likely, imo, to spend as long as possible investigating his MPs behaviour to provide an excuse not to call an election.
If Brown is forced out and a new leader in place by October, then a mid/late October election is still a possibility but I’d make it no shorter than 5/1 as a minimum so am happy to take 1/3 for 2010 if someone will give me it.