Lib Dems move into second place in new ICM poll?
May 30th, 2009WESTMINSTER:
CON 40(+1) LAB 22(-6) LD 25 (+5)
Desperate desperate figures for Brown as he faces June 4th
A sensational new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph tonight has Labour down on 22% three points behind Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats who are at 25%.
This surely shows the affect that the MP expenses affair is having with Labour suffering much more than the other parties even though, during the fieldwork period, it was Tory miscreants who were dominating the headlines.
This is serious stuff for Brown as he faces what could be a disastrous Thursday with locals election in the English shire counties and, of course, the five yearly round of elections to the European parliament.
As I’ve argued here many times ICM has the most Lib Dem friendly methodology and the best record of all the firms in predicting the party’s eventual share from this far out. This is party down to its mathematics and party to its voting intention question which, uniquely, focuses on what will be going on in the respondents constituencies.
This, of course, comes after a high profile period for Nick Clegg and him being seen to have taken the lead over calling for Michael Martin to go.
There are Euro election numbers in the ICM poll which are markedly different to that which we saw from Populus last night.
EURO ELECTION:
CON 29 LAB 17 LD 20 UKIP 10 GRN 11 BNP 5
The marked differences are with UKIP and the Lib Dems. It’s hard coming up with an explanation until we have seen the detailed data.
My guess is that unlike Populus ICM did not prompt with the minor party names.
Mike Smithson
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First?
26?
First?!
Third - like Gordon. But moving swiftly downwards.
Has there ever (since 1988) been a higher Lib Dem poll score?
Someone had a bet on this happening - details anyone?
This is truly unbelievable if confirmed…
Shurely Shome mishtake Mr S?
Very good for lib Dems actually, and the other poll is dire for UKIP, although the polls for UKIP are so far out of line with each other it;s difficult to know what to make of it
Wow that didn’t last long
I am shocked and stunned and find it impossible to believe and I am a Lib Dem supporter
Reply to 132 from prior thread:
It isn’t like the last days of Thatcher at all. Then a ruthless Tory party destroyed their incredibly successful leader when she become a bit bonkers.
Labour ordained Brown knowing he was a lunatic from the word go, and have been pussyfooting around axing him ever since, during which time he’s made Neville Chamberlain look popular.
Let it be true. Let it be true. Let it be true.
Cooooool. Like the edit function.
When was the last time Labour were third in a General Election voting poll? 1987?
FPT
Wasn’t there some kind of PR type election thingy in Scotland?
And wasn’t every third ballot paper spoilt because people didn’t understand it? (God knows whether even the unspoilt papers were filled in as intended)
End of debate.
Stick with a system which works and is easily understood - FPTP.
Reply to 132 from prior thread:
It isn’t like the last days of Thatcher at all. Then a ruthless Tory party destroyed their incredibly successful leader when she become a bit bonkers.
Also, I’m calling it a rogue. Lib Dems on 25% seems incredibly high.
Labour ordained Brown knowing he was a lunatic from the word go, and have been prevaricating around axing him ever since, during which time he’s made Neville Chamberlain look popular.
Anthony Wells produces Con 369 Lab 178 LD 74.
Baxter produces Con 376 Lab 161 Lib 82.
Never thought Labour could plunge so low. Astonishing.
When was he poll taken?
This is of course the first time ever that Labour have been behind the Lib-Dems. There was one famous poll (also ICM) in September 2003 that showed all the three main parties tied on 31%, but the Lib-Dems have never been in front of Labour before;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
Why no mention of the Euro poll which shows UKIP flatlining?
When will Labour be overtaken by the Loony party?
When will Labour drop under 20% in a GE poll?
15% for Labour in the Euros looks plausible.
I can remember when IDS was in considerable trouble the Lib Dems got to around 30% in the polls - I believe all 3 parties were level pegging; but as is inevitably the case they declined back to around the 20% come the General Election. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain a position in the mid 20%’s beyond June 4th…
So UKIP 10% with ICM, but about double that with Populus
??? One(or both) must be rogue.
15. GIN - great link, but Populus had Labour behind the Lib Dems in September 2004. In retrospect that was a rogue!
And my question at 3 above looks rather naive…
What intrigues me is the thought of where the LDs could be if they had a more effective communicator as leader. (Not meaning to disparage Clegg - I’m not saying he’s dire - but if they had a Cameron or Blair, and I think it’s only luck that they don’t have such a person available, who can say where they’d stand.)
21. I think Vince would be worth a point or two.
FPT - Populus 23/24 Sept 2004 had Lib Dems on 29% and labour on 28% according to the list on MORI. As far I can see, that’s the only one where labour were third since 1992.
21. I think it would be great if Ashdown and Kennedy could be brought back to form part of a Lib Dem election team, to show the party’s strength in depth. Both would be assets to any coalition.
@21: It is slightly worse than that: Clegg *thinks* that they’ve got a Cameron or a Blair, whereas they’ve not even got a Steele or an Owen. He is therefore prone to the most appalling gaffes.
Polls all over the shop !!!
BTW …. might I endorse seanT and Sean Fear’s recommendation for Isla Negra. The red is very agreeable at around £3.50 a throw. However I first came across this Chilean producer last year when the rose was recommended to me. Not normally a fan of rose but this one is excellent and it’s an absolute steal.
Btw, Der Fliegende Hollander (on R3 just finished) has made a superb soundtrack to this poll.
Does anyone really think that Brown is going to do those interviews on Sunday? It is going to be a WRECK, like a plane crashing into a train slamming into a car that’s just run into a deer that ran into a fence and got its antlers stuck. Only worse.
evening all and what a fantastic poll. Just heard it on SKY. Brown’s interview with Andrew Marr in the morning is going to be fascinating.
As I said about midnight last night, GE night around 23.00hrs
Ladies and Gentleman we have the first result of the evening.
Sunderland Central: Con gain majority 2500.
Good night everyone and would the last person to leave the studio turn off the lights.
No doubt Labour Cabinet Ministers will be wheeled out on Sunday morning TV programmes to say, absolutely totally on message, what a brilliant job Gordon Brown is doing and how none of them have got any intention or desire to depose him.
from last thread on this poll:
Wow - for the second day on the trot. Sub-optimal for the subprime ex-Chancellor.
Just told the missus about the LD’s being ahead of Lab in between BGT ad’s and she (Lab / Lib Dem voter historically) wasn’t surprised at this news - ‘Cameron has acted like a leader, Brown sets up committees and doesn’t lead’.
I must say that the Labour vote still seems a little high to me. I think we’re still seeing a polling Labour overstatement, despite the safeguards.
24. Bring back Mr Asquith!
20. Good spot.
A couple of other points (see if anyone can correct me) the Conservatives never dropped below the Lib-Dems in the 92-97 parliament.
The Conservative lead, at 22% is generally above the leads Labour was getting with ICM in 1996 - Infact only one ICM poll in 1996 gave Labour a lead higher than 22%, with all Labours other leads in 1996 being in the teens.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
Evening all.
Interesting poll. Of course things are volatile at present, although the Conservative figure seems remarkably stable.
Looks like Cameron’s strategy is indeed working.
We should bear in mind that Labour’s low-20s position allows an awfully large opportunity to increase. If Johnson got in quickly and it became Con 40, Lab 30, the morale effect would be enormous.
Euro figures now up in the main article.
I suspect that the polls are too volatile at the moment to draw any reasonable conclusions. I would just say that the Conservatives seem to be in a solid position, Labour in a dire position across all polls and the Liberal Democrats are in an ok position in most and depending on methodology either profit or not. I suspect that if an election were actually held now the Lib Dems wouldn’t be third.
We need to realise that there is a recent events boost/drop on top of any party’s underlying position in any poll. Labour’s natural position is probably around 25% right now.
Not at all surprising. I find the behaviour of Labour Ministers much more off-putting than those of the Tories whose ethos is to use all lawful means to advance themselves and their families.
Labour voters expect their politicians to be public spirited and put community and the greater good first. That’s why Labour voters are sickened and shocked and very likely to stay at home.
Crosby ICM probabilistic
Con 361
Lab 162
LD 80
SNP 19
PC 5
Oth 5
NI 13
Con maj 77, 2.7% swingback to Hung Parliament
Repeated FPT
If I was “giddy with glee” yesterday, how great do I feel now?
Labour in THIRD place!
I would absolutely love a Lib Dem opposition. To date they have been far more principled than Labour on issues of freedom and civil liberties.
And a hint to any Lib Dems: if you don’t start kicking Labour (or if you even THINK of forming a coalition with them) you will sink sink sink.
Oh happy days.
EDIT: Of course, I realize LDs would come third even if they outpolled Labour.
42, so pleased you need new underwear?
A Lib Dem Opposition would be interesting. But very unlikely.
Extraordinary.
Does anyone know why Sun Tel used ICM and not YouGov?
Possible reason for difference in UKIP polling:
Populus named all 6 parties, first of all big 3 (in rotation) then small 3 (in rotation). So UKIP were named either at or very near the end of the question. This would put UKIP very prominently in people’s minds just before answering.
Did ICM do the same? If not then could well explain difference.
UKIP will be low down on the ballot paper which I suspect goes against them. If I had to say I think ICM is likely to be more accurate re UKIP.
We live in curious times
Just read the Harman interview in the Guardian. Definite hints that she is…. *ready*.
I now think there probably WILL be a move against Brown, rather than otherwise. The mood is deeply mutinous. If Labour finish fourth Brown will be gone, if third, he will be challenged - outcome uncertain. If they come second but poll under 20… hmm….
JackW - indeed, the Isla Negra is delish. Just cracking a bottle now. FWIW a friend of mine is a professional wine importer/taster and he reckons the Chileans make the best wines in the world under a tenner.
42. If Clegg waited for Brown to propose a coalition, and then very publicly turned him down, that would do the Lib Dems a world of good - and send out a very effective message in advance of the next election.
44. Because ICM are the best?
Absolutely diabolical for Labour. Doing badly versus UKIP is one thing - we know from experience that UKIP will have minimal impact at a General Election, and to the extent they do it will hurt the Tories more than anyone.
But third behind the Lib Dems is another thing altogether - there are plenty of Labour MPs facing a serious Lib Dem challenge who might have been inclined to loyalty when Cameron was the only beneficiary since they felt personally safe enough.
So the LDs getting into bed with Labour is going to help them is it?
They would have to be stark raving mad to sign upto anything with GBs fingerprints on it.
The slogan vote LD get GB would resonate even more loudly on the doorstep tahn it does already.
Wow - speechless.
43 Morris Dancer. If the Conservatives stick around 41 it would take about another 4% swing from Lab to LDs for them to have about the same number of seats. Imagine the brawl for official opposition status
I would just like to join the Isla Negra love in. Good tasting cheap stuff.
I’m not sure that with figures like this we can really rely on UNS models. I suspect that with results like this that all parties UNS score could be +/- 20-30 seats.
55 Very fair point
53, it would be fun
55, for what it’s worth I think this is rogue. Lib Dems on 25 looks too high.
53 - In that circumstance with more votes I wouldn’t stand down to let a less popular party be the official opposition.
In fact I hope there’d be a crisis as a result as regards how an electoral system could be so crazily unrepresentative.
28 Nope - as he is a serial bottler I can hear his mum writing a verucca note as I type.
If he does, I have a top hat handy to eat.
Who do you think is advising Brown. I think Labour will go even lower in the polls this week because of the snub to the Queen>
57 - Morris I think that until expenses is a distant memory all polls are rogue!
Looking at those euro voting figures…. I start to wonder, what if Labour come…. SIXTH?
Hah. What larks. What would they do if they came… sixth? Just fold the tent and head home? Call it a day?
Maybe it is time Labour faced facts. They had a good sixty years, but now there’s no room for them, no need for a ludicrous lying immoral party supposedly based on a mass movement of industrial workers but actually comprised entirely of careerist cheats, traitorous ideologues, boring ethnic agitators and feminazis.
48. “If Clegg waited for Brown to propose a coalition, and then very publicly turned him down”
I was wondering about that. Presumably Brown wouldn’t offer it unless Clegg had said in private that he’d accept. Of course, that wouldn’t be binding, and Clegg might well feel inspired to change his mind once the offer was public.
Marr is no doubt being programmed to explain that Brown is well ahead in Liverpool, Riverside and therefore it is a disaster for Cameron.
57 - Don’t forget that the lib dem figure was not far off 25% in the last general election. If labour are down in the mid to low twenties then it’s all to play for and there are enough past voters to tempt back as well as newly minted ones.
57 As it’s Her Majesty’s LOYAL Opposition, the D Day commemoration events may have put Lab on a sticky wicket
Looking at those euro voting figures…. I start to wonder, what if Labour come…. SIXTH?
Hah. What larks. What would they do if they came… sixth? Just fold the tent and head home? Call it a day?
Maybe it is time Labour faced facts. They had a good sixty years, but now there’s no room for them, no need for a ludicrous lying immoral party supposedly based on a mass movement of industrial workers but actually comprised entirely of careerist cheats, tra1torous ideologues, boring ethnic agitators and feminazis.
4. Morus. That would be me and PfP. He laid me 2/1 that the LDs would at least draw level with Labour in a poll from one of the main pollsters sometime this year.
This news is not going to go down well with Lord Peter from Putney and his household. The moat may have to go undredged this year.
Re 34. And a final additional point the Conservative never dropped below 26% in an ICM poll in 1996.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
So, by every count, Labour are doing worse, a year before the election, than the Tories were doing a year before 1997.
I think a Lib Dem vote share in excess of a Labour vote share at the GE would prompt a large number of defections from the rump Labour Party to the Lib Dems - maybe even enough to close the gap in seats.
There are quite a few Labour MPs who are basically Liberal or simply progressive, but have hitherto stuck with Labour in order to get things done.
Brown will have some ’spectacular’ to announce on Marr tomorrow, that much is obvious.
And like everything else Brown does, it will turn to crap about 5 minutes later.
(Both Clegg and Cameron have made policy announcements on Marr over the last couple of weeks - Clegg withdrawing support for the Speaker, and Cameron opening up selection in vacated seats to the public. Now Brown has seen how it is done, he will ‘lead’ by insisting he was first, and it all started in America.)
This is a good poll for the Liberal Democrats!
Probably a rogue but maybe some idoits are taken in by the Little Hitler Nazis! Do one thing but say another!
What it does mean however is Labour will more than likely instigate a campaign to burst the LD poll rating should it be ‘real’. Michael Brown and the £2.4 Million donation may well be brought up again given the backdrop of cleaness of party.
Gordon Brown in his likely last PMQ’s may use the Nuclear option of mentioning the “LD Yellow Taxi” in congjunction with the shortage of funds and the LD will suffer as he moves to put pressure on the electoral commition to force the £2.4 Million to be paid back from the LD to the Victims.
I am suspicious about this poll, it smacks of the time the LD surged when it snowed only to find it was a rogue by the polls either side showing it was an aberation.
Could it not be the case the spring bank holiday week has distorted it? All the the schools on holiday, parets off work to look after the kids etc?
Interesting that Labour suffers massively compared to the Tories as before IIRC the Tories suffered?
Paradoxically this poll might reflect Labour internal polling? That would explain the stories about Labour/LD pact in the last few days. Think about it the best way to snatch this soft LD vote back is by aligning and presenting a vote for LD will support Labour or vice versa!
If i were Nick Clegg i would be out to tip brown over the edge this week! (You know what i mean - Brown is a lunitic already!!!).
I can’t imagine him showing his face on telly either.
Euro poll seems a tad suspect, UKIP too low and Lib Dems too high.
Although Labour are not behind UKIP in the national polls, it is possible they could still be in terms of seats won come June 4th, even with this breakdown.
UKIP are nowhere in Scotland and the SNP/Plaid Cymru are nowhere in England. I suspect if results are predicted on a region by region basis UKIP will squeeze out Labour in ENgland just as the SNP are squeezing out Labour north of the border.
So Labour win the national vote share but not as many MEPs as they perhaps should have.
http://snptacticalvoting.blogspot.com/2009/05/latest-poll-icm.html
68 But some would still have us believe that the Conservatives aren’t doing well because they aren’t constantly in the mid-40s.
66 Sean T I really wish you’d stop holding back and just said what you really think
No doubt if the LD did outpoll Labour even if they had less seats they would try claiming the opposition despatch box! I think they tried that in 1997!
re 71. Dream on Martin.
Humm.
Strange poll. Lots of odd numbers. Good to see that Tories don’t protest in numbers when it comes to a GE.
Of course it’s the Labour below LibDem meme that will be the narrative. I think we are in dodgy polling territory as we always are with during the Euro’s, now more so now than ever.
I wonder if Labour can keep their nerve as the Tories had to during the non election conference. Perhaps we should have John Major on TV angrily declaring he wants to squash Labour faces into his peas.
The next YouGov will be better - Labour will forget all their critisism of YouGov over the mayorals and declare YouGov ‘King of polling’ because it will put them second - just. ICM will now be the subject of a referenda to change its methodology.
Expectations are now so low for them that if they hold on to their trousers it will be seen as better than expected.
Ok guys I took the Lib Dems at 8/1 in the Euro handicap and flagged it up here.
Any buyers of Tory seats at 350 odd should be nervous about this poll.
With Brown out and a Referendum on PR in the autumn followed by an election under a new system in may could cost them a lot of money
53 - In those circumstances (which remain extremely unlikely), I think Labour would split which would make the decision of who was official opposition easy enough. The left would seek to seize back the party and the right would split or join other parties.
AnnaK. “I think Labour will go even lower in the polls this week because of the snub to the Queen”
LOL! Could only have been written by a Tory!
I wonder what Tony Blair is thinking tonight?
76. Mike, No i think it is the LDs upthread who are dreaming!
LibDems did try claiming to be the real opposition and claiming despatch box rights!
Besides as Jack says Dozens of Labour MPs might defect!
re 51. Under no circumstances will Nick Clegg do a deal with Brown - this is just misinformation that it being put about.
“I’m not sure that with figures like this we can really rely on UNS models. I suspect that with results like this that all parties UNS score could be +/- 20-30 seats.”
Any actual election with national totals similar to these last two polls would also have heavy anti-Labour tactical voting.
Also, the last 3 national rounds of local elections 2006/7/8 saw the Conservative total be an average of 3% higher than the previous polls and the Labour total 5% lower. I haven’t checked back earlier but I suspect that the pattern would be the same - it corresponds to the Smithson rule that the most accurate Labour poll is the lowest.
Now that pattern might not hold true next week as Labour are now plumbing unheard of depths. But if it does then we could possibly see Con 44 Lab 16!!!
Does anyone know what the greatest ever Con-Lab margin in a major election is?
81. He’s probably busy helping the plotters.
Just remember folks: Mackay, Steen, Dorries, Kirkbride and Cash have all been publicly hounded and vilified, topping every news bulletin all week.
I was worried the “sleaze hit” would be greater than the “leadership dividend”. How completely wrong I was.
83. Mike - your attitude towards Clegg appears to have mellowed considerably over the past year. Do you still think Huhne would have been a better choice?
David Cameron HAS to hold a debate with the other party leaders - especially so if Brown doesn’t turn up. Cameron and Clegg debating the issues would further bolster the Lib Dems as the coherent centre-left voice.
On these figures, Brown Bunker will be cooling off on PR.
Just been YouGoved.
European and GE intentions.
Also several questions about immigration and others subjects from the BNP agenda.
81 - “Pass me the champagne Cherie darling”
78 “With Brown out and a Referendum on PR in the autumn followed by an election under a new system”
And what makes you think such a referendum could be won?
Since it would be so transparently a dodge to avoid a GE defeat, it would thrown out. And the GE would follow on FPTP.
Money on 350 seats is safe.
90 - I did that earlier and was pretty uncomfortable with the statements.
**** BETTING QUESTION ****Tim at 78 brings up a good point.
Elaborating on that, what happens to the individual constituency bets if the voting system is changed? Does anyone know the bookmakers’ policies?
If the voting system changes to any which maintains a constituency link, then presumably they will keep the bets, but the odds will change dramatically? This could have major ramifications in (for example) three-way marginals.
94. Or if the total number of seats changes?
84 - The Conservatives were about 20% clear in 1931…
78. tim, I’m sorry, do you honestly really think that Labour will suddenly find the will and conviction to force through the legislation to reform our electoral system, and then win the referendum (cause Labour are SO popular)… all in about eight weeks?
Right now Labour couldn’t organise a bunk up in Bangkok. But suddenly they will get it together to persuade us all into electoral revolution?
Yeah, right.
If you want to know a slightly more feasible policy that might save your party from total total destruction: sack Blears, Hoon, Darling, Straw, Smith, Purnell, and McNulty. As long as these obvious chancers and thieves are in the Cabinet, Labour are doomed to be hated.
No point Lib Dems getting excited. They’re just the default position for disaffected Labour supporters. Nothing to do with Clegg.
I agree with Morris Dancer - I think this Poll is a bit of a rogue. A thoroughly enjoyable and entertaining rogue, but a rogue for all that.
91. James Burdett. No, surely it would be “Shall we just have another bottle of bubbly darling?”
Can you guys stop the Isla Negra love in please. You’ll get the price put up.
99.
I agree.
The poll is a ‘JackW’
Edit - a libdem leaning entertaining rogue.
94. wibbler. I would have thought the bets would still stand.
A poll with Labour falling to third behind the Libdems was just waiting to happen right now.
“AnnaK says:
30/5/2009 at 8:52 pm
Who do you think is advising Brown. I think Labour will go even lower in the polls this week because of the snub to the Queen”
AnnaK, I agree, its going to look terrible seeing Brown there while the Queen has been snubbed. And that is the problem, we don’t know if she was or wasn’t originally, or if Downing Street screwed up big time instead. But the spin last week was desperately trying to pin the blame on the French whether they deserved it or not.
So Brown turning up anyway, now looks even worse!
98. Roger. No. This poll is likely a rogue. It puts Lib Dems very high relative to UKIP which goes against the trend of recent polls. Labour are probably still the number 2 party in the low 20s. About 18-20 points behind the Conservatives.
There’s no need to concern yourselves over te betting implications of a PR referendum being won. There is no possibility of the constituencies being changed in time for the next General Election.
AV on the current boundaries is the only change that could theoretically make it in time - and thats if the Lords let it through.
Re PR. A point not mentioned is that any system of PR will need new constituency boundaries (unless we’re going to increase the Commons by 100 - 150 MPs with AV+ - surely inconceivable).
Cameron wouldn’t be bound by a referendum but even if he DID decide to accept it he’d then have to kick-off a new Boundary Commission review to draw up the new boundaries. As people may recall, Boundary Commission reviews take at least 6 years to complete.
So he could easily delay any implementation until his 3rd term if he wanted to without looking as if he had ignored the referendum.
“The Conservatives were about 20% clear in 1931…”
20% ahead of Labour last year as well.
I wonder what the notioanl leads were in 1967 and 1975-7?
83 - correct but Clegg would not campaign against a Labour led Pr referendum campaign
let David Cameron and Tony Benn campaign for safe seats and the status qui
80: Hello Roger. I am not a Tory, I live in southern Ireland now although I was born and bred in South London. You have to face it the snub to the Queen is bad and Major, Blair, or Cameron, would not have made the mistake of not inviting her,
FPT
Ref a possible Lab/LD pact: Can anyone hazard a guess as to what effect this might have on our S&P AAA rating?
92. I suspect a PR referendum would be moderately hard to win in practice (much easier than one on joining the Euro, but not a walk-over). The problem is that the crude “You only want this so you can have more seats” attack is both simple and effective if pushed aggressively. It will be extremely hard for any Labour leader to push back against that because of the dodgy-looking Damascene conversion.
I think such a referendum could be won, but it would need people with personal credibility and political capital arguing for it.
98 - Actually, the Greens are the closest to labour and I think there’s a fair bit of churn - Greens gaining mostly from labour but some lib dem, Lib Dems gaining from labour and, in some areas, from tory tactical voters.
78 “With Brown out”
Brown won’t be out unless several polls show Labour will improve its position with a new leader.
“a Referendum on PR in the autumn”
If Labour change leader they will be under irresistible pressure to hold an immediate election
“followed by an election under a new system in may”
If Labour did truy try and hold a referendum for PR for the general election having just changed leader(again), Do you seriously believe they would win?, it would just look like the most obvious gerrymander ever, I think the turnout would be enourmous and a resounding no.
107. Mike L - STV would simply require grouping constituencies in threes, fours and fives. Hardly an arduous task. I’d still oppose an early PR referendum, and expect it to be defeated, but administratively it’s quite possible.
99. Although it has rogueish elements and with the Euro polls indicates an overstatment of the Lib Dem, the trend of low 20s for Labour is being sustained. I thought it was stange that in canvassing Labour held county seats, I’ve only found 6 explicit Labour households out of 250+ doorknocks in the last week or 2 but in conjunction with the polls, it suggests a dire Friday for Labour.
How many months has oldrightie been telling you he has a life changing bet on this? Never a peep of acknowledgement, then this pops up! I thought you were all supposed to be betting folk. I placed it when Jimmy elbowed his way into No 10. Guess the odds!
112 - “I think such a referendum could be won, but it would need people with personal credibility and political capital arguing for it.”
So it isn’t going to happen then is it!!
115 - Given the screw up that they made of a PR election in Scotland with plenty of notice I doubt there’d be any possibility of a PR General Election for a few years at least. Voters also need time to be ‘educated’ as to the new system.
The thing that is funny from my perspective about this is where do the LD’s move their campaign resources to now
LD have been down to low teens in the last year and now up to 25%. I should imagine that when they see polls like this they will want to campaign more locally rather than traveling hundreds of miles perhaps to the new target seats they say they want to bag off Labour.
Could mean the LD waste their time and resources!
103 stjohn
But wouldn’t the odds in (say) Watford move massively against the Conservatives if (say) AV was introduced?
All the second preference votes for the remaining Labour rump would go to the Lib Dems over the Conservatives, making the LDs strong favourites.
Two big questions persist for punters. 1. Will Brown be forced to step aside after the Euros? 2. If yes, will we have a General Election soon?
The answer to the latter question has major ramifications for many of the punters here.
I think all polls will be rogue-ish on the details for a bit because of the volatility but at the same time I think they’re giving a pretty clear picture of what’s happening overall.
97. Yes. Since Scamalot started they needed to do 3-4 times more than Cameron just to stand still. And since he’s been going full steam on the Mr Clean front they’d have needed to sack half the cabinet to keep up.
97. Just because the PR referendum is a sh!t idea that’s bound to fail doesn’t mean Gordon won’t roll the bones and try it. Indeed, sh!t ideas that don’t work seem to be his modus operandai. He has literally nothing to lose now, he might as well give it a go.
121 wibbler
Do you think that’s why the Lib Dems like PR?
All PR does is stack the odds in favour of centrist watered down ineffective hobbled together lame governments.
108 . In 1968 Tory lead over Labour peaked at 28% - in early 1977 - according to Gallup - the lead reached 25%
Who was the last prime minister to be sacked by his own party without ever leading it in a general election?
Similar to a football manager appointed half way through the season by a struggling club and then sacked himself 3 months later.
Will be rather embarassing for Gordon in France as he’s continually asked about Labour’s electoral thrashing and whether he’s going to resign.
Sarkozy and Obama wont give him the time of day.
Ready to drink hemlock yet Timmy?
In the unlikely event of this poll being reproduced at a GE I think all the forecasting software is a bit dodgy. It would most likely be a result of tactical voting on a colossal scale - with Labour doing rather worse in terms of seats and Tories and LDs quite a bit better.
I’d expect Labour more like 100 seats and the LibDems similar.
There is one thing I don’t get here. 10% of votes have switched between the Libdems and others pretty much overnight?
I wonder whether it has anything to do with the Question as there is a subtle difference between ICM and Populus.
ICM:
Q: If there were to be a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Conservative/Labour/Liberal Democrat/Other
Populus:
Q:If the general election was tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be [rotate order] Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, or another party - or would you not vote at all?
Does anyone think that the Populus rotation of parties could have affected the result of their poll significantly or is one or other genuinely a rogue.
So Tim,
GB will offer a referendum on PR in the Autumn just to save his own bacon.
It will pass the House of Lords before the next GE….
No chance.
The legislation required could not be in place plust the boundary commission would have to report back via a Royal Commission as happened with the new Scottish voting system.
You may just get it by 2012/13.
I suppose he could adopt the approach adopted in Germany in 1932/33 but remember GB has got less of a mandate than Herr Hitler.
Nobody has actually voted for him.
124 Panurge
I agree. Brown never looks at any issue, no matter how important, through the lens of what is right for the country - only personal, factional and partisan advantage.
For him, the order of his loyalties goes something like:
1. Personal ego
2. Hardcore Brownites
3. Anti-Tory
4. Labour
5. EU
Britain (and ordinary people) just don’t figure on his list.
127 - I don’t think it has happened since the advent of modern politics.
Another question has any other Governing party other than this Labour Government (including all three terms) ever been third in the polls?
110 As far as the snub to the Queen is concerned, it seems to have been forgotten that the 40th anniversary of D day in June 84 was restricted to Reagan and Mitterand - I do not recall the Queen - or even Thatcher being involved.
I’ve just placed as much as
William Hill political markets would allow me on the Brown leaving office of PM in 2009 market. The price of 5/2 seems to be the best in the current turmoil.
130 Anthony thinks it is just a sampling difference.
Anthony’s graph is fun with the red and yellow lines converging;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm
The question I’m wondering about is would Brown prefer a General Election to being turfed out in a coup? Would he prefer for instance to seek a mandate and fail than to be denied the opportunity.
Re 130 The precise wording of the ICM question is
136. I think it must be evens he will be gone one way or another by the end of the year. So an interesting bet.
87.”Do you still think Huhne would have been a better choice?”
Yes, but I am not a Libdem..
80.”LOL! Could only have been written by a Tory!”
Roger, you underestimate the strength of feeling this will evoke amongst the older voters, and they tend to come out and vote at all the elections. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour take a further hit on Thursday over this, and not just in the polls.
I still think that Brown did himself irreparable damage among older voters when he bottled that Autumn GE as well.
Just got in from a family birthday party and all I can say is wow.
Congrats to Lib Dems, hope you become the main left leaning party, Labour needs crushing.
122 St John
Earlier today I reckoned the odds on a challenge to Brown soon after June 4th were about 4/6; the chances of said challenge being successful also about 4/6. I now make both 1/2.
In the event of both happening this summer, the odds on an autumn GE would be, imo, about evens.
135 Justin. The Queen was there when Reagan made his speech.
131. timmo, Hitler is so like Gordon Brown it is unreal!
Strange obsessions and blaming the Tories like Hitler blamed Jews!
Here is my prediction for what will happen next week:
http://tinyurl.com/nq4tp9
135. Justin. Your memory is faulty.
Reagan travels:
June 6, 1984
France
Normandy
Attended commemorative ceremonies of the 40th anniversary of the Allied landing in Normandy. Also present were Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada, Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands, King Olav V of Norway, King Baudouin I of Belgium, President Mitterrand of France, Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, and Grand Duke Jean of Luxembourg.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/trvl/pres/12800.htm
140. Mike S
Thanks for that I C&P’d the question straight off UK Polling…..
142 I think you are right James, he will call an election rather than be forced out, Whelan’s twittering was probably true, July Election, lets hope so.
According to the last sentence of the Telegraph article about this poll it says Our Glorious Leader is expected to do interviews (plural) tomorrow.
Does anyone know where other than Marr they will be? The Politics Show? Or Sky?
Populus and ICM are in the same areas for the GE for both Labour and the Conservatives but a 10% difference for the Lib Dems and others. I suspect the real Lib Dem figure may be about 20% but if correct this is hopeful for the elections this week. We are often higher in the polls when there are no elections!
@139: My other half is *convinced* that Brown will quit, citing family (or possibly health) reasons, before facing the electorate; her reasoning is that he is not psychologically prepared to accept defeat. I’m not totally sure he will - but it will be a debilitating struggle for him.
139 Mike
I am astonished they are holding that price. I had £200 last nite. I just had another £200.
Thank you, Sidney.
149. Martin - nah I don’t buy the comparison with Hitler. Mussolini maybe……..
;o)
122.”stjohn says:
30/5/2009 at 9:16 pm
Two big questions persist for punters. 1. Will Brown be forced to step aside after the Euros? 2. If yes, will we have a General Election soon?”
stjohn I think yes to both questions. I am not sure that Brown will go immediately after the Euro’s though, but if he is gone by September, then yes, we will have to have an Autumn GE now. For Labour to do anything else, would be as bad as leaving Brown in place to clear off when it suited him, possible at the last moment.
This idea that Labour may go for a referendum on PR as part of a clean up politics campaign misses the crucial point. The public will see it as a deeply cynical proposal from a party that cannot win under the current rules so it is trying to change the rules.
Such a proposal would reinforce public cynicism about the motives of politicians, would reinforce the view that Brown sees everything through the prism of tactical advantage over the Tories and in addition would reinforce the view that NuLab stands for nothing except being in power irrespective of collateral damage. It’s a no starter.
139. Like Hitler - Brown would choose to be a marter. Not that i think many people would follow him. If he loses an election then that will be it!
In a hundred years time he would be known as the PM who got lost when he went for a Shit in Windsor castle and the PM who on an overseas trip went for a shit and kept everybody waiting for 10 Minutes!
Oh and the PM who when called by the speaker ran out of the door - Presumably he needed a shit again!
This is amazing. I hope the Labour party never recover.
British politics: Conservatives vs Liberals
That would be perfect.
144 SeanT
Now is the time to lose your betting virginity. Hills still offering 5/2. Go on, son, you can do it!
155 - I’m not sure he wants to be in the history books as the only PM in modern times never to fight an election.
I’d just like to say that, in an election where we have a serious possibility of real Nazis like the BNP winning seats, comparing either the LibDems, Labour or any other legitimate party to Hitler and the Nazis is seriously inappropriate, even and perhaps especially if it’s “for a laugh.”
Thanks.
The graph from polling report is pretty interesting - although the second/third place thing looks a little rogueish, the LDs truck along happily more or less flat, and Labour continue on their long-term downward trend; this time busting right through the 25% mark. Which raises the question again: where is the bottom?
150 Fair enough , I stand corrected!
#153
Brown doesn’t do interviews in the conventional sense where the presenter asks questions and he (Brown) answers them..
What happens is the presenter asks a question. Brown totally ignores the question and delivers a 10 minute party political broadcast on how, in his modest and under-stated opinion, he’s done such a terrific job this past twelve years.
He’ll be appearing on the usual outlets that let him get away with such abuse of their air-time.
Mike how much would they allow you?
By the way, another outstanding tip from me when I first mentioned this bet this this morning.
re 156. PtP - they only let me have £150. Your obviously a favoured customer.
155. Matthew Adams. And Brown will be absolutely convinced that if only he could last until next year the economy will be saved and everyone will be in awe. Wow, his brain must be running in overdrive like a hamster on speed in a treadmill.
168 Hi Noisy….feeling good, Fellow Holder Of Highly Promising Betting Voucher From Hills?
150.Ken, I know one elderly voter who quite cross about the Queen being there, they will be watching to see if any other Royal heads of State are at it. And woe betide Gordon Brown if the Dutch or Norwegians are there.
155.Matthew, I am with your other half on this, and have been for years. Its the same reason that I knew we would not have that Autumn GE back in November 2007. Brown is not, nor ever has been, a John Major figure in the Labour party.
Telegraph - Labour MP tried to claim £5 charity donation on erxpenses!!!!!!
169 I obviously don’t win as much as you, Mike!
162 PtP
And I think it would be nice for Seant to be able to say that there is at least one vice he hasn’t tried.
173 -
Could there be a July election?
Brown is more of a Stalin type - Hitler and Mussolini were both showmen.
164 wins the most uptight and sanctimonious post of the year award.
164-David
It most certainly isnt a laugh.
We have the most authoritarian/totalitaian govt at present with a leader who wants to hang onto power by any means possible.
This from a man who goes to great lengths to avoid elections.
History is history and to ignore it leads to that very History repeating itself.
So in answer to your comment …no i dont think it is dangerous to draw comparisons between GB and Adolf.
173. LOL! Just as you think they can’t sink lower!
So which song suits tonights poll, do we think? How about;
“GO NOW” by the Moody Blues?
“If your gotta go you’d better go now”
177 - Potentially, yes would be the first since 1945.
And now probably the most (I can’t even find a word to describe it)
claim of the lot so far
An MP used his expenses to claim for a £5 donation he made during a church service to commemorate the Battle of Britain.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5413894/MPs-expenses-Labours-Frank-Cook-claimed-5-for-church-collection.html
Oh and Charles Kennedy is now up there with the most (again I can’t find a word to describe it) claim.
Three boxes of mints and two teddy bears bought from the gift shop at the House of Commons by Charles Kennedy, a former leader of the Liberal Democrats.
176. Oh God and Jesus in heaven, hallowed be thy names, please let it be Ed Balls. Your pal glw. Amen.
153 Tomorrow is the Re-Launch (part the 23rd) when Gordon will want to reveal the Great Plan, majoring I would think on ” saving jobs and houses from the impact of the downturn, investing in good public services and cracking down on crime” but with some constitutional reform, possibly cosmetic changes, re-announcement of “citizen’s empowerment” stuff but AV+ referendum will probably make an appearance (its zero risk for Brown, it won’t affect the election but will put the Tories on the wrong side of the dividing line).
Question is will Marr & Co let him use the interview for that or will they come back to expenses, to Blears and others? Will Mrs Marr have had a word and put some lead in Marr’s pencil?
Brown believes IMHO that the expenses stuff is passing turbulence and as he says in his Sun article regarding jobs, houses, public services and crime “Those are your priorities and my priorities, and this Government’s focus as we build Britain’s future.” It’s Tory cuts he’ll keep returning to if he can.
Labour to receive less votes than Susan Boyle.
It’s hard to restrain one’s excitement over these polls which are obviously all over the place, and understandably so, but certain themes are consistent and much as one would expect: Conservatives are holding steady: Labour are sinking steadily: LDs are OK, if erratic: minor Parties (apart from, possibly, the BNP) are doing very well.
It looks like the endgame for Gordon now. May be wrong, but my money is definitely backing my view.
The charity donation is significant in itself (Frank Cook: you are scum) but also significant in the broader scheme of things.
The Telegraph are now moving away from ACA and onto office expenses (as Harman predicted).
187. If OGH and PtP reckon it’s a good bet, it would be “brave” to ignore it. I’m on (again).
173 - despicable!
175 Sally C
.
.
Vice is nice.
It’s virtue that can hurt you.
178. MrJones. I would agree but both Hitler and Stalin (in particular) were ruthlessly efficient in maintaining their power base. Brown doesn’t seem to have one any more……..
Telegraph:
“A pink laptop claimed by Tim Yeo, a former Tory minister, in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Officials from the fees office decided against querying Mr Yeo’s £900 claim.
Three boxes of mints and two teddy bears bought from the gift shop at the House of Commons by Charles Kennedy, a former leader of the Liberal Democrats.”
Frank Cook? Drat, oh well back to praying for world peace.
188-If the Tlegraph are moving onto office expenses then i expect the Lds to get a lot more attention.
They are masters at using their comms allowance and office allowance to prop up local associations.
What is the mechanism for Labour to rid itself of Brown. Does it require a certain number of MPs/NEC to sign a challenge or do they just hope he’ll fall on his sword?
Or another possible suitable song title given Labours rating would be;
“WAY DOWN” by Elvis.
“Down, down, down, down, Way On Down”
Frank who? Never heard of him!
LD might find this interesting -David Cameron, the Conservative leader, is backing a “recall” power for voters to force out MPs who break Commons rules. Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, has led calls for a “recall” mechanism to be triggered if 5 per cent of constituents signed a petition demanding a by-election.
Personally i think the DUP option better - get wannabe MPs to sign resignation letters and/ or breach of contract with financial penalities if they break the spirit or the rules or fail to meet certain work standards. My problem with recall elections is LD will be campaining for recall elections from the day after an election I have no doubt!
Will Brown do a Blair, and take the hit for May election results?
Or will he go before Thursday?
179. Well if post 164 is the most sanctimonious post of the year surely timmos 180 is the most barking mad!
183. My prediction for the Telegraph headline next week:
“Labour MP claimed for sharpened pencil to poke eye out of crippled child beggar”
I see the Telegraph has exposed Tim Yeo’s little pink laptop too. That is something I hoped I would never have to contemplate.
Oddly enough IF the Lib Dems were to remain in 2nd place for an extended period, there could be a danger lurking for the Tories.
Many of the former Tory voters who supported the Lib Dems from 1997 have moved back to the Tories - to a large extent to get Labour out. If a further Labour victory completely disappears from the radar screen as a result of trailing in 3rd place, there has to be some possibility of those same voters returning to the Lib Dems. I would suggest that a similar point can be made re former Labour voters who had switched directly to the Tories.In other words If the LibDems can gain momentum over a few months , might some polls begin to show them advancing at Tory expense too - giving us something like Con 35 /36 LibDem 30/31?
PtP- I feel deeply fustrated! I cant bet online as I cant change my card with open bets, so I have to wait till the betting shop opens tomorow by which time the price will surely be gone. I would have many more hundreds on otherwise!
#163
Brown will go to the wire. The Labour party have had ample opportunity to take a good look at their leader this past two years and yet still not one has had the courage to break ranks for the good of the country.
If one of them does, after two years of gum-bleeding idiocy displayed by the Maximum Idiot, then I think Brown will just shove the entire party up against the wall by the throat and offer them a General Election right now or a General Election next June when they’ll all be sevaral tens of thousands of pounds richer (as well as their 40K spousal secretaries).
And we all know which option the majority of Labour MPs will plump for. There will be no leadership contest. He will give ‘em the stark choice. Back me or I’m off to see Liz and you’ll be unemployed and living on supplemenatary benefit a year earlier than you’d planned.
He’ll bring down the government before he walks.
Brown is going nowhere.
201 Now you are just being silly.
No one uses the word ‘crippled’ anymore.
183. I am shocked by Charles Kennedy - it should have at least been a few bottles of H of C whisky and some glasses!
Tim Yeo’s looks dodgy IMO!Pink Laptop just before XMAS!
177.AnnaK, Scots are on holiday then, there would be a rammy if they did that to be honest. They decamp enmasse to their holiday destinations during that month to avoid the August snarl up.
187. If the Labour PLP are ever to actually get their act together, it is going to be in the next ten days. I sense we could be on election watch…
208 Oh no!
I go to Scotland in July.
@203: IThe trends just don’t look like that to me; some catastrophe would have to occur to trip a switch of that nature; the current one hasn’t done so.
192. That’s true but he did manage it for a long time while he kept in the shadows - it fell apart for him when he came out into the light. Plus he has the big disadvantage that he can’t execute people. He can only shout and throw phones at them.
207 Yeo’s is easily solved (or not) - lets see the Laptop Tim!!
If it was for a secretary or some such for House business etc then no problem - if not, bye bye Tim.
Frank Cook just got monstered on Sky News - his career is over for what was probably a mistake, a fiver for charity - yet how on earth can anyone claim that? Even in error?!
205. Can’t happen that way constitutionally. If there’s a whiff of a challenge, Liz will be within her rights to refuse a dissolution….
210.SallyC, don’t come during the Glasgow fair, it rains everywhere else in Scotland that fortnight.
205. I think some of them would be delighted.
If stopped in the street this week and asked your occupation, would you rather say “banker” or “MP”?
Some of these people are going to be crucified. A general election now gets them their golden parachute and stops the Telegraph headlines.
You know it makes sense
208:Thanks, I just thought they might go for it, all the mp’s who are standing down would be sure to get their pay off.
Shock Boyle didn’t win the cheap variety show that is Britain’s Got Talent.
204 Shame, Noisy. You may be lucky, but frankly I don’t understand how the price is being sustained at 5/2.
Anyway, I’m off out now for the evening. Can somebody please text me if Gordon resigns while I’m out?
Toodle Pip!
213. How do you “mistakenly” claim for a donation made, into the offertory, during a church service. It’s just not something you can do “by mistake”.
No, you do it deliberately. You fill in the form and you try and get the money back, at least you do if you are an immoral gouging vile hypocritical little puffball of a Labour MP.
Every day’s Christmas in the HoC grotto!
From the Frank Cook article.
Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, has led calls for a “recall” mechanism to be triggered if 5 per cent of constituents signed a petition demanding a by-election.
Now this is why Clegg is a hysterical prize idiot. Using rough figures most constituencies are around 80,000 voters. So it would then take 4,000 signatures to force a recall. How many 2nd parties in a constituency get less than 4,000 votes? How hard would it be to get 4,000 signatures (let alone imagine the validation overheads such petitions would require to ensure every signature was from someone on the constituencies electoral register). It’s not hard to see that Parliament would be in constant upheaval.
Scratch Clegg as a Libdem he should be categorised as a democratic anarchist……..
218 what won? A mouse that lights its farts up? A Father/Son double dutch skipping combo? David Miliband’s tache dandruff?
213. You couldn’t accidentally claim for it, it’s not as though you get a receipt in church that could accidentally be submitted.
re 216. You should pronounce banker in the way that the late Roy Jenkins used to pronounce rancour.
Am I missing something - but I can only see “Gordon Brown To Lead Labour At Next Election” on Hills at 6/4 No - has the 5/2 price gone or was it a different market that’s been taken down?
Thanks
Its perfectly set for Gordo to mince in and be interviewed by flappy ears tomorrow morning.
Its more interesting to me how Marr will deal with it. If its patsy questioning, the BBC will get a torrent of complaints..and rightly so. Not sure about this poll without confirmation, but the swing is too large to be taken as read IMHO
However it pans out, Labour MP’s will be ordering more bog roll on expenses.
188. Already deselected.
202. Would like to see Yeo nailed. Dreadful rude man.
213 - Frank Cook’s career is over anyway as he was deselected early last year by the Stockton North Labour Party.
220 yep, I thought better of ‘mistake’ as I was typing it - I can’t see how an error like that can occur - its like mistakenly stabbing someone 402 times - you’d stop at 100 surely and say ‘whoops’
213. Dyed in some wool somewhere - I agree! It made me think of those fake pictures of him standing Naked that were circulated around the commons a few years ago.
I think it was around the time several Tories (MPs) big hint had trouble with some researches.
The pictures ended up in the daily star! I laughed my head off!
I HAVE NEVER BEEN A RESEARCHER TO AN MP BY THE WAY!
223 - Some group called Diversity.
Wow. Could I really have a LD coucillor come Thursday.
219 Off out for the evening. Who is he kidding? It’s 10 o’clock.
Is he going clubbing or has he had a booty call?
218 James Burdett “Shock Boyle didn’t win the cheap variety show that is Britain’s Got Talent.”
Yep! Gutted that Boyle did not win. The winning act dance very well - but I don’t think that they will have as much of a “shelf life” as Boyle.
FPT today. My post of the day.
89
drakes drum says:
30/5/2009 at 1:46 pm
While stitching up the hand of a 75 year old Devon farmer, who cut it on a gate while working cattle, the rural doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Gordon Brown and his appointment as Prime Minister.
“Well, you know,” drawled the old farmer, “this Brown fellow is what they call a “fencepost tortoise”.
Not being familiar with the term the doctor asked him what a “fencepost tortoise” was.
The old farmer said, “When you’re driving along a country road and you come across a fence post with a tortoise balanced on top - that’s called a fencepost tortoise.”
The old farmer saw a puzzled look on the doctor’s face, so he continued to explain, “You know he didn’t get up there by himself, he definitely doesn’t belong up there, he doesn’t know what to do while he is up there and you just have to wonder what kind of idiot put him up there in the first place.”
222 - The Telegraph article misses the important detail that it would only be once an MP had been suspended by the Commons (e.g. like Conway) rather than a general right of recall. I think Cameron supports his position on this (although they may differ on details).
234 - Well his trademark hat would fit in if the style is still wannabe gangster…
The 5/2 is gone now. The 6/4 on him not leading Labour is great value, although it was longer this morning. If it holds I might pile in next week depending on how things look.
I think the chances of Brown going are now slim. I can’t see the point at the moment. For the first time in ages Brown isn’t the problem and if there is a chink of light it’s an improving economy the electoral benefits of which would disappear if Brown is replaced.
“Gordon Brown wants Ed Balls as chancellor
GORDON BROWN is ready to promote Ed Balls, his closest political ally, to chancellor this week in a high-stakes gamble to restore Labour’s political fortunes.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6396042.ece
232. I’m sure Simon Cowell will make a shed load of money either way. Thats what it’s all about isn’t it?
232 rhetorical request, but thanks
Still in a fit of pique about Simon Cowell and his permanent and clumsy assault on British Culture.
219.”Anyway, I’m off out now for the evening. Can somebody please text me if Gordon resigns while I’m out?”
PfP, don’t worry, you will hear the cheer where ever you are.
234.SallyC.
235 - Frankly I was totally disinterested.
Yes Hill it seems are only 6/4 now on the GB to lead Labour at the next GE as far as i can see.
#214
Since when has this Labour government worried about constitutional convention? It’s been one of their core characteristics this past 12 years destroying constitutional (and legal) convention. Speaker Martin foisted on the Commons. Referenda pledges renegeded on for two out of three elections. Abolition of ‘double jeopardy’.. etc etc.
And you think the queen has any say if her PM swings by and informs her that he’s having an election?
Seriously. He’ll go in there and request an election and if Liz tosses him out he’ll go back to the HoC and call a vote of no confidence in his own government before he relinquishes power.
He’ll go on his terms. Electoral suicide if necessary but he won’t relinquish power to anybody else in the Labour party when he could, quite legitimately, have it all to himself for another year.
Just watch.
I think even might watch Andrew Marr tomorrow!!
More lyrics - this passage struck me as apposite for Gordon’s re-appearance tomorrow
“And so you’re back from outer space
I just walked in to find you here, with that sad look upon your face
I should have changed that stupid lock
I should have made you leave your key
If I had known for just one second you’d be back to bother me
Go on now, go walk out the door
Just turn around now
‘Coz you’re not welcome anymore ”
Gordon is concerned it’ll be Chaos if he isn’t here to lead us, well Gordon we will survive.
Sky have an interview with Cameron tomorrow morning after Gordo on the Beeb. Compare and contrast…
241 Opps. Pressed too soon.
Edit:
This bit is brillianly ironic.
‘Brown’s authority has become so weakened that some ministers are openly defying Downing Street. Insiders claim the most audacious are dodging his calls – deliberately “going to ground” when he tries to phone them. ‘
Ooww. They are so ‘audacious’.
244 - Oh dear ChristinaD you seem to have confused the two Peters…
200: ‘…surely timmos 180 is the most barking mad!’
Rubbish roger! Timmo has hit the nail on the head. I’ve said as much myself:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/24/in-search-of-the-so-called-gordon-conservatives/comment-page-1/#comment-512976
Though you gainsaid…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/24/in-search-of-the-so-called-gordon-conservatives/comment-page-1/#comment-513091
I warned that Brown’s antics would give legitimacy to the far right and what happened? A few years on the BNP have a spring in their step and have never looked so politically potent. If only the Labour Party had listened to me then it, and the nation, would not now be standing on the edge of the abyss!
People aren’t stupid - Labour will continue to be punished in the polls while ever Brown chooses to ignore gross excesses committed by Cabinet Ministers, whilst severely punishing his lobby fodder.
People know there are six or more Cabinet Ministers who should be sacked.
244. The fireworks would be a clue as well.
As they’ve been polling a lot in recent weeks I thought we might get one last BPIX poll for the MoS tonight, before the euro election. But obviously not.
241.Me, If Brown uses his last throw of the dice to put his closest cronies into their most desired jobs, he is finished, and so is this government for a long time. Balls would simple be Brown markII at the Treasury, more of the same spin and dishonesty we have all seen before.
Brown is not going to have the ability, or courage to cope with a GE campaign, never mind cope with a total meltdown result. He will be gone before that GE. As others have said, this is last chance saloon for the rest of the Cabinet. Do they sit back and watch him reward all those sycophants and hanger ons who have advised him so badly?
tim, you seem to be rather out of touch. Sour grapes?
The reason why Labour never introduced PR is because it’s own internal research, conducted during the Blair years, proved that there would be perpetual right-wing governments in the UK under PR. The UK has never had a left-wing majority. It is by nature a right-wing country. The left only won power because of FPTP.
E.g. there is a conistent 60% pro-hanging majority in Britain, a consistent 85% anti-immigration majority in Britain, and a 60% low-taxes majority in Britain. Labour will never hold power in Britain again under PR. The right will govern continuously, with the makeup of the right-wing government changing based on the outcome of the particular general election.
I have always supported PR on this forum, for all of the last 4 years, whoever was ahead of the polls. The reason? I am a democrat.
The real extremist party of British politics is the Labour Party. It has imposed an extremist left-wing agenda that was never supported by the majority. In a fair world the members of this Labour government would be hanged.
Under PR Labour will never be able to hold power in Britain again.
Even under Blair, internal research showed PR would have reduced Labour to a rump, with less than 32% of the vote. FPTP has always benefited extremist Labour, and harmed Britain as a result.
Not sure if someone posted:
“‘Fingers in the till’ Darling must go, says furious Vince Cable”
“The Prime Minister is said to have begged Mr Darling to stay on, warning that his departure would send a signal of disarray at the heart of government.
However, some observers suggest that Mr Darling was effectively holding Mr Brown to ransom over the forthcoming Cabinet reshuffle, forcing him to keep him in his post.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189798/Fingers-till-Darling-says-Vince-Cable.html
237. Oh well miss one idiot and get a whole bunch of them (the Telegraph that is). According to the same untrustworthy source Cameron just wants a recall on the same basis. However that doesn’t get over the validation point of a petition……
………….
On another little gem. Labour’s already got themselves a standard apology letter. Nothing like sending constituents a personal note of regret.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/334106/MPs-expenses-scandal-Labour-chiefs-have-issued-all-their-MPs-with-readymade-Sorry-letters-to-send-to-angry-voters.html
Check the bottom of the page. Harman is going on her own crusade to clear the way for her accession. One thing for sure I’m glad I’m not related to her…………..
250. Big Ears will dribble over Gordon while Adam calls Cameron a Noddy.
Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189788/Cameron-took-maximum-taxpayer-funded-mortgage–paid-75k-loan-months-later.html
This might shake things up, but I don’t think the story will run much.
Now Brown is going to make Balls Chancellor.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6396042.ece
How could this possible benifit Brown in any way what so ever? He is officialy bonkers. Will this produce a Howe type moment from Darling?
Evening again all
An extraordinary poll and hard to know where and how and if it relates to the Populus numbers which look very different for the LDs and UKIP.
Re: 222 - While I wouldn’t accept the usual over-the-top language, jsfl has a point. James Burdett suggested a figure of 10-15% on his blog - I suggested 50% of the electorate plus one on mine.
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2009/05/reflections-and-recalls.html
80. ”LOL! Could only have been written by a Tory!”
Such disconnected arrogance ensures Labour’s annihilation.
I know a family, fiercely old school Labour - also fiercely Loyal to our queen.
Roger (and Gordon Brown) probably doesnt think such people exist. Well, more fool them.
252.James, I always do, especially when they are here together.
164. Damn, there’s my evening spoiled.
Is it OK to compare you to a pompous self-important prissy dictatorial windbag even - or especially - if I draw this parallel just for a laugh? And can I say that Hazel Blears reminds me of Pol Pot?
Just asking.
257 - “Do they sit back and watch him reward all those sycophants and hanger ons who have advised him so badly?”
ChrisD, did they say anything at the last shuffle when those that ousted Blair were rewarded by Brown?
262 Brown has lost McBride. He can’t function without his gang.
259 Do you think Vince is job hunting?
261. SallyC. LOL
Balls is 7/1 to be next Chancellor with PaddyPower. Seem like value?
Even rigging the voting system doesn’t seem to be enough to save New Labour now.
257-ChristinaD-There are many contradictories articles about the next reshuffle. But I agree with you, Brown will probably be finished if Balls become chancellor.
Stark raving….To compare Brown to Hitler is unsustainable.
121. “So it isn’t going to happen then is it!!”
I agree, that was my point really.
262. I can not fathom it. Will it be popular in the country? With the markets? In the party? With the Treasury?
The only people who would support the move are Brown, Blinky and Cooper.
So why would Brown do it? As you say he must be bonkers.
252 Quite right - it’s another pound in the sin bin from you please Christina. At least it’s all in a good cause - namely the PB Social and Recreational Fund.
269-”Nonsense” according to him.
271. noisy. Brown is mad enough to do it. I’m on.
247. The British Constitution in six words:
“The Queen in Parliament is Sovereign” [A.V. Dicey]
She is the constitutional longstop. It is within her prerogative to refuse a dissolution, thereby dismissing Brown.
He knows that too, so it won’t happen…
263. Stodge. I’m not always OTT. Only when I think politicians are pulling a fast one or posturing and Clegg has been doing both all week.
I would agree the % for a recall would need to be higher.
“Move to topple Gordon Brown if UKIP beat Labour in Euro poll”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189799/Move-topple-Gordon-Brown-UKIP-beat-Labour-Euro-poll.html
Oh dear…
A LABOUR peer and former chairman of the party has admitted that he “fiddled” his expenses to make up for not being paid a salary. He had even claimed for overnight stays in London when, in fact, he drove home.
Lord Clarke of Hampstead, who has apologised for his “terrible error”, is the first member of the House of Lords to concede that peers knowingly abuse their allowances to boost their income.
He said that he had claimed up to £18,000 a year for overnight subsistence when he had often stayed with friends for free in the capital or had even returned to his home in St Albans, about an hour from London.
While accepting personal responsibility, Clarke implied that the practice was common, saying: “I was given the impression – more than that – I was given a very clear steer that this was a way of getting remuneration in the absence of salary.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6396064.ece
269 Yozzer Cable? No, surely not?
Quick straw poll in the pub - confirmed this poll - all the Tories keeping with them - apart from 1 - going to ukip - Just 2 still voting Labour - with 13 switching to Lib Dems from Labour - cant remember how many I asked - yes that accurate - plus a little drunk - but these other figures have stuck with me - by the way a few people said it was 1st time had seen Clegg - and they had been impressed - oh - Im 1 of the lab goin Lib Dem - so Im biased
262. “Now Brown is going to make Balls Chancellor. How could this possible benifit Brown in any way what so ever?”
No choice. The goblins weren’t smashed completely by Smeargate so deposing the Goblin Queen requires their support - which means Nosferatu has to offer them something - which means McDoom has to offer the same or better to keep the goblins onside.
Maybe.
267.”ChrisD, did they say anything at the last shuffle when those that ousted Blair were rewarded by Brown?”
Simon, Brown was very careful to keep a few old hands and Blairites around the Cabinet to stop them being troublesome on the back benches. No one that would be a Hezza though. Balls got Education because he asked for it, shades of trying to do a Cameron, except he hasn’t the empathy or the talent. He now wants the big job, and so will other Brownites that were carefully placed in more minor jobs, so as not to make it look like they were being rewarded to blatantly for that famous Autumn coup planned in a certain Curry house.
They have invested to much in the Brownite operation, and they have waited a long time for payback.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189816/Gordon-Brown-hairshirt-style-says-Harriet-Harman.html
281
Another page that has failed tonight
edit typical works now
263 - I revised upwards to 25% and specified a ward concentration cap as well. I shall take the vain route of linking to the revised suggestion here http://bit.ly/F05vy
Anyone fancy a bet? Wheeler has got £100k that Cameron will renege on his EU position.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6396069.ece
284 Must be scientific as they were past vote weighted :-).
“Alan Johnson alone can stop the Tories”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6395925.ece
PS: Have not read it yet.
#279
But why would the queen refuse a request for dissolution? He’d still be PM (up until they Labour party could get it together to oust him). It would still be entirely within his power.
If the Russians pushed the button while there was a leadership election would we all just sit about waiting until Labour had sorted out who was in control of our red button? Of course not. It would be the PM.
It’s a no-brainer. If Brown gets challenged he will threaten them with an election and if they push him he will call one. And Liz will give him the go-ahead. She doesn’t want to see the UK destroyed for an extra year any more than the rest of us.
Ah Portillo. He is reliable..
EDIT: I haven’t read it yet. Don’t intend to
Anyone else seen the Mail front page? Just saw it on Sky. Looks like a hatchet job on Cameron.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189788/Cameron-took-maximum-taxpayer-funded-mortgage–paid-75k-loan-months-later.html
293
jgm1
“If Brown gets challenged he will threaten them with an election and if they push him he will call one”
You have omitted the two month wait in the middle whilst he makes up his mind..
295.Odd? They have been very anti Brown of late, much more so than their sister paper the Daily Mail.
295 Morris Dancer - I just tried to post the link but it is obviously held up in moderation but it is on front page of DM website.
272. Though I would argue that the voting system is currently rigged, I was going to argue something similar - if this trend continues Labour will pay for hanging on to this corrupt voting system early on when it suited them.
Which begs the question, when do the models that people use to calculate seats start making nonsense. Surely now there is a probability that Lib Dems can take quite a few Labour seats at the next election - and also they maybe strengthened in the seats under pressure from the Tories if former Labour tactical voters become more ‘I vote Lib Dems’ voters? The maths of these calculators are surely based partly on a supposition that Labour and the Tories will get the most votes - but FPTP, as we all know, is a fickle creature, with very fine tipping points.
295
Read it..
No story. Move along there…
MOre MP sleaze!
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/334089/MPs-expenses-scandal-Dozens-of-MPs-rush-in-claims-for-kitchens-and-TVs-before-expenses-rules-are-changed.html
297/298, it refers to Cameron’s mortgages for his homes, but anything like that could be said about Brown but be even worse as he has two grace and favour homes.
I wonder if someone’s had a big gong dangled in front of them. Arise, Sir Pliant of Fleet Street!
298-It’s because of the word m0rtgage.
the complacent two-party stitch-up is dying..
295.MoS - David Cameron took out maximum taxpayer-funded mortgage - then paid off own £75k loan four months later
“Mr Cameron has now insisted that his mortgage claims had been ‘perfectly reasonable’ and denied that reducing his Oxfordshire loan would have helped the taxpayer.
A statement said: ‘David Cameron paid off his London mortgage with his own money which came from the sale of shares and money built up while working at Carlton TV.”
Oh dear, the MoS have not done their homework on this one…Did the journalists bother to read the first Cameron biography?
295.MoS - David Cameron took out maximum taxpayer-funded mortgage - then paid off own £75k loan four months later
Oh dear, the MoS have not done their homework on this one…Did the journalists bother to read the first Cameron biography?
298-It’s this one, right?
http://tinyurl.com/mtbsus
#297/298
How is it that the Mail has suddenly got some information? I thought it was the Telegraph who had all the figures.
Who has selectively dobbed in Cameron to The Mail out of the blue?
Brown? The man with access to all the figures?
295.MoS - spam filter doesn’t like the words in the link.
Oh dear, the MoS have not done their homework on this one…Did the journalists bother to read the first Cameron biography?
If any poll was going to give Lib dems second place it was Sunday Telgraph ICM.Last S unday Tel ICM poll had Con 43,Lab 26,Lib 21,even higher than Guardian ICM at a similar timewhich had Con 40,Lab 30,Lib 19.
The Sunday Telegraph movements on the latest poll are Con -3.Lab -4.Lib +4.
The nmystery as otheres have poponted out ids populus nomally the closest ICM in terms of the Lib dem vote.
If we average out the latestICM and populus we get
Westminster Con 40.5%,Lab,21.%.Lib 20%
Even the average vote would lead to a Labour disaster.The county elections have a uniquely disadvantageous shares for Labour as vi all Metropolitan and virtually all Unitary authorities are not contested in this round.Thus it is highly likley that Lib dems will beat Labour in terms of vote share and councillors elected.
Avearging ICM an dPopulus for the Euros gives Con 29.5%,Lab 16.5%,Lib 16%,UKIP 14.5%,Green 10,5%,BNP 5%.This suggests three parties at least vying for second place.
rogerh
297 Chris - expected something on Cameron’s mortgage; its been a favourite of tim’s and I think it’s naive to think that McBride’s conduits for smear stories are closed just because he is (like Gordon) lying low. McBride wasn’t acting alone, the others are still there.
306.The information is not a secret, it never has been.
Here is the Cameron story:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189788/Cameron-took-maximum-taxpayer-funded-mortgage–paid-75k-loan-months-later.html
As far as i understand it, Cameron bought a house in his new constituency, with a £350,000 mortgage, and as it was his second home, he got the second home allowance. Shortly after this he paid off his mortgage on his main home in London.
And that is the story. Or, am i missing something?
Re: 289 - James, apologies. I hadn’t realised you had refined your ideas so quickly. I think you’re on to something here - your proposal certainly reads as very sensible.
I’m still uncertain about 25% but I appreciate that would mean 20,000 signatures in an 80,000 elector constituency and gathering that number would be no mean feat.
That said, my suggestion of the higher number would obviate the need for the first of your two questions on the ballot paper. IF a majority of ALL electors signed a recall petition, the recall would in effect have been agreed to.
Under your proposal, 25% triggers the question of the recall as the first part of the two-part ballot paper.
It’s probably a small difference but just something to consider..
306, the main claim appears to be that he’s paid off his mortgage on one home, and took out another on his second… wouldn’t that be the normal way to do things?
The thing is, this could (almost certainly) be levelled even moreso at Brown, who also has a pair of grace and favour homes. The story is important not because of content, but context, ie the Mail on Sunday is taking an anti-Tory stance over a non-issue.
306 - The core of the Mail’s article just appears to be from the Land Registry, which is publicly available.
As far as i understand it, Cameron bought a house in his new constituency, with a £350,000 mortgage, and as it was his second home, he got the second home allowance. Shortly after this he paid off his mortgage on his main home in London.
And that is the story. Or, am i missing something?
If what the times is reporting on the Brown reshuffle, with Balls as Chancellor, is the 7/1 at Paddypower value? Or is this all rumor? Or even if Brown does intend it, will he have time to make a reshuffle before being forced out?
Advise please as I’m thinking of putting on a wager.
314 - that is how it reads to me.
251. “the most audacious are dodging his calls”
Wonderful
Last night, iirc, Newsnight drew attention to the the huge resettlemement allowances, etc, which MPs are entitled to receive on leaving office, depending upon how long they have “served” as an MP.
I can’t recall the precise deatails, but I believe the combined amounts payable to both the Wintertons and the Mackays exceeded £200,000.
This is outrageous and if Brown and indeed Cameron are serious about cleaning up the present mess, they should at least agree that no such allowances are ever paid to those MPs who have been forced to resign on account of their own behaviour.
314
Gaz
You are missing nothing..
It confirms my view of the Mail/Mail on Sunday as the Telegraph dumbed down for 5 year olds…
309.Ted, I agree, and I know just such a site that backs that up.
This information is not new, its been around for a long time. In fact, its always amazed me that so much misinformation about the Cameron’s personal finances has led to some of the most outlandish claims seen on here. He has got to have had about the most transparent finances of all three of the main leaders for the last 3/4 years. That biography by the Independent journalists was pretty informative.
Have you read Boris Johnson wee novel on his Henley campaign? Lovely bit in it about being pressured to buy in the constituency when a candidate. The blue rinses didn’t think it an option, just when and where. I expect that Cameron’s association were the same, and lets just look at the house prices in those two area’s. Not for the faint hearted. Boris noted that if he became their MP, he knew one thing, a mortgage beckoned.
314 that is the story.
The Mail are suggesting he should have paid £75k off the second home mortgage and claimed less rather than paying off his primary home mortgage.
This is despite the fact that at the time it would not ahve saved any money as is interest was over the maximum ACA permissable.
I would imagine rather than Brown, someone in the Tory heirarchy who is being leaned on for expenses got this one published - the squealing of the damned.
293. She would refuse because there would be manifest uncertainty about his ability to command a majority in the Commons, and the request for a dissolution would be improper.
I buy the mail on sunday and it’s the last time I will be buying that stich up paper,just pathetic.
311 - Don’t worry stodge you I’m sure you have better things to do than check out my blog
I just think that getting 50% would be such a high threshold as to actually make the procedure unusable. You need a threshold that stops malicious use but is not unattainable for a genuine circumstance.
309. The Cameron constitiency home is a non-story. He purchases it several months after election for starters!
What you have to remember is “the house was bought for £650,000 for the constituency house in Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire” as it says in the piece.
That means he had considerable equity in it anyway. £300,000 the so called mortgage experts failed to notice that bit!
Frankly i do not see anything wrong with his arrangement and given Brown claimed for that flat and transferred it to his wife who took a mortgage out on it. (Brown only ever had that as a taxpayer Interest only mortgage IIRC before cashing it in). I think the mail would be better looking at Gordon Browns ceady and dodgy expenses and financial planning strategy!
Labour MP Frank Cook claimed for a £5 church donation he made at a Battle of Britain memorial service, the Sunday Telegraph reports.
Retched little man, Ugh.
Hannan’s a bit right-wing for me, but this is an excellent article:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1189772/DANIEL-HANNAN-MEP-No-questions-receipts-cash-courtesy-EU.html
326
Wretched
314. Yes, its a ridiculous hit job, and it’s clearly been planted by Team Brown.
321 - Plus the point that any sensible person who came into a windfall that could be paid against one mortgage or completely clear another, would clear that mortgage for the simple reason that it makse that property more secure if financial circumstances turn against you.
It strikes me that we are reaching the end game. Is it Dacre doing one last favour for Brown. What will Brown’s exit honours list show? Can her Majesty refuse any of them? I do hope so.
321 That is how I read it.
EDIT: And unlike Brown - if he needs to explain it - he will.
Apols if previously mentioned but Susan Boyle, despite being hot favourite, failed to win the BGT final this evening - the moral being if you’ve made yourself out to be a quiet homely spinster, don’t trot out a string of 4 letter expletives, which won’t do your image any good, especially when you’re appearing on a family TV show.
325.Martin, as I said, they have not done their homework on this one. And its not like its been a secret.
213 - agree he crashed on tv, but I will say he did the honourable thing and didn’t blame an employee as some others have done.
At one time I thought he was crying, then I decided he was furious at being questioned in such a manner.
326 - I take a somewhat different view and think that Telegraph headline is highly misleading. Putting “MP claimed £5″ etc gives the impression that money actually changed hands, wheras ‘tried to claim’ would not leave that misinterpretation open. I also think that there is a case for saying that no distinction is being drawn between intentional fiddling and chicanery and genuine errors of which I think this is an example.
315. paynie. The article refers to someone senior in Downing St, or similar, being the source. So the rumour sounds high up, if true. Personally I won’t be backing Balls. I think it would be a terrible move by Brown to promote such an unpopular minister.
I also feel that demoting or sacking Darling, risks squandering the one ace in the hole that Brown and Labour still hold. That they can claim to have steered the country away from financial apocalypse when faced by the greatest economic crisis in a generation.
332 Swimming Pool repayer I reckon?? The enemy and their cunning devizes…
Most of the pundits doing the rounds of the constituancies [including Robinson] say people don’t mind the second homes allowance as they accept most MPs need another house - it’s all the other stuff they don’t like.
We all knew the GE campaign was going to be dirty, does it start tomorrow with Gordo on Marr and this “Helpful” Cameron hatch job in the MoS?
Even the massive overspin, the article start, Cameron paid off his mortgage on his house after buying his 2nd home in his constituency. And……….
337. There are so many rumours from the different spokes of the Labour rumour mill, it is hard to know what comes from what faction and what the motivation is.
The MoS wanted a big splash for their front page…And doing over Dave would be that bit different. Only problem is, the story is short of meat, except for that headline.
337. Stjohn. Darling is toast. We cannot have a tax dodging flipper as Chancellor. Every taxpayer is going to think “feck”.
The Cameron story is simply what we have been discussing here for months, simply that he maxed his mortgage claims from the tax payer and paid off his London mortgage.Its within the Rules.
Now he is confused about how many houses he owns as the complex nature of his families IHT avoidance scheme does not make it transparent.
All of this is legal, but spare us the morality Dave.
The Sunday Herald seem to have it in for this MP
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2511507.0.more_questions_for_mp_at_the_centre_of_expenses_mystery.php
299. Paul Lloyd - that’s a really important methodological point.
Lots of commenters on here talk about “tactical unwind”, but voting doesn’t work like that. Tactical voting in itself may harden into party affinity sooner or later - especially if it is backed up by voting for the party in local elections. Ultimately, it’s impossible to posit any firm distinction between tactical and non-tactical voting.
Butler and Stokes reckoned in the ’60s that it took three votes for a party in successive general elections for party loyalty to firm. I’m not sure whether that still holds true (or ever did), but Labour to Lib Dem tactical voters in 1997, 2001 and 2005 may well be identifying as Lib Dems in these turbulent days.
That mail story is weak sauce….
343, if he is moved I’m reasonably confident of Balls getting it. Such a shift would cement his loyalty to Brown, and likewise not getting it could be dangerous for the Supreme Leader.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1189819/MAIL-ON-SUNDAY-COMMENT-Clear-cheats-bottom.html
#337
That they can claim to have steered the country away from financial apocalypse when faced by the greatest economic crisis in a generation.
Labour are the greatest economic crisis in a generation.
340. oracle Well it might backfire on ‘El Gordo - the fat one’ if he does!
343. ken. Darling could step down “to concentrate on trying to win his constituency”…
345.Marcia, isn’t he a Labour MP up your way?
And this is the killer saver for Cameron,
“In 2007, I was able to pay down the mortgage a little bit [by £100,000], so it was a £250,000 mortgage, paying about £1,000 in mortgage interest every month,”
In other words, making a step to cut the cost of that mortgage and thus the amount of interest he would claim from the taxpayer.
One headline beckons if Darling is moved….Move over Darling? Doris Day special.
337 stjohn - Am I reading you correctly on this? You seem to be entirely content for Darling to remain in his job, despite the reports that over just a few years, he has “flipped” his main property several times for tax purposes.
My own personal preference was Balls to CoE, Darling to replace Smith at Home. I think the latter part is now toast, since keeping Darling looks unlikely. Straw should be toast.
Me. I see the Mail comment has no comment on Brown’s cleaning bill or buying a home on expenses - and giving to his wife - when he has two grace and favour pads.
Glad to get the thoughts of the esteemed members of pb.com on the Mail on Sunday story. I’m off for the night.
355 Christina - I think someone on here beat you to that one by, oh, a week or three!
344. Tim - its a load of rubbish and you know it! As Cameron had £300,000 equity in his £650,000 witney house at the time of purchase i think it just looks stupid.
Not like Brown that really is dodgy a flip and a mortgage by his wife to cash in.
.
.
As I said a few days ago. Dont trust polls around this election. Unless of course it shows the Lib Dems on 25%.
357. I’m not sure the C of E would take Balls…
363: Oh I bet a few of them would
I see that the herd see the Mail story as pro Brown.
You may like to draw a contast between Alan Johnson, not a wealthy man who has only ever claimed half his allowance and Cameron who,despite not needing tv cash took the taxpayer for the maximum.
Pro Brown?
Think deeper herd boys.
353 - Jim Devine is the MP for Livingston
358. I posted my blog bit on their comments - once the euro’s are out of the way and they do not challange Brown and he is ’safe’ - it goes to every journo! I have had faverable feed back from some news organisations!
Brown swapping that flat over and she taking money out of it is very dodgy indeed. Given what we know about Brown on Cleaning and his TV subscriptions. I don’t think Brown will have the benifit of the doubt anymore.
365 - The same Alan johnson who paid TNT to send the Labour election leaflets instead of The Royal Mail. A story waiting to be picked up.
Grow Up Tim
The Cameron story really should be an illustration on how to use the ACA as it was designed.
He owns a house (if the mortgage is paid of or not is irrelevant), he becomes a member of parliament and told that there is this thing called ACA for the cost of owing and running a 2nd home. So he goes out and buys a 2nd home in his constituency, and he claims the mortgage interest on. That is it.
I didn’t think I could be more disgusted with the Mail (rag of a paper that it is), but I am, not because I am a Cameron Fan Boy, but I want honest reporting and this has Gordo mucky finger prints all over it, down to the “Cameron actions pail into insignificance compared to Tony Blair’s…..”
362 - Icarus, would now be a good time for Clegg to announce a Lib-Lab pact?
336. Oh please. How can you “erroneously” claim back five quid you put in the offering box at a church service?
“I’m glad I gave that £5 to the church today that was a good thing to do…. oh no! now I’ve tripped over my two foot high wife and I’ve accidentally sent off a claim for the very same amount to the Fees Office and… oh no…. this is even worse… on the form it mistakenly said “I claim a £5 offering to the church” and this must have been mistakenly written by me when I was mistakenly unconscious or something. Still, this kind of thing must happen all the time”.
365 - This would be the same Alan Johnson who shafted the taxpayers more than any other MP in the HoC by cravenly capitulating to the Unions?
Soon it will be the ’silly season’
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2511516.0.labour_accused_of_dishonesty_over_leaflet_charade.php
Tim =
A one man band to save one eyed for the nation! Tim must lead an interesting life to view Brown and Labour constructively. Maybe he farms his own magic mushrooms and has a weed garden!
Either that or he gets pissed more than i do! 
I am sober tonight as Jaws is on the box again later!
I love the bit when the bloke gets eaten on the deck!
I would be a sick f*cker at the cinema and laughed!
Cameron can and will answer for himself - unlike the others. He already has. He took out a mortage for a second home - months later paid some of the first home - then months later paid some off the second. End of.
322. If the Queen refused Brown a dissolution then he would presumably resign as Prime Minister while remaining leader of the Labour Party. Would she not then ask the leader of the next largest party to form a government. Presumably Cameron would find that he couldn’t, in which case she would have to dissolve Parliament. Or would she ask other prominent members of the Labour Party if they could form a government in despite of their own leader? Surely she wouldn’t touch that with a barge pole.
344. “The Cameron story is simply what we have been discussing here for months”
One person droning on about something does not amount to a discussion.
369 Oracle
Good spot.
The Downing Street spin operation is so ridiculously transparent. It’s also incredibly pointless.
Cameron can go on air and defend himself, because what he did was reasonable. Brown can’t go and defend his Sky sports subscription. Or his second home expenses when he has a grace & favour, flipping a property over to his wife (to avoid CGT?)
Actually, I personally think it is unreasonable to have the taxpayer fund such a plush home - I would limit it to the average 3-bed semi-detached in the area, or something similar. But far more subtly “unreasonable” than the hatchet job Brown’s apparatchik’s have come up with…
372 The Times prefered ’shameful’ to craven.
#371
Yep. Must have happened something like that.
An ‘error’? An egregious error of judgement you mean?
I find it easier to understand Jacqui Smith sending in receipts for bathplugs and smut videos. After all these bills show up and you simply pass everything on because you’re in the habit of doing so.
But to sit down and actively fill out a claim without (presumably) a receipt - and I’ve yet to go to a church that hands out receipts with ad hoc donations.
I hope his dad is proud of him. Probably a miner. Reserved occupation or somesuch.
336. PS James, in future, you should really desist from your lame but touching attempt to defend MPs. They’re not worf it.
All MPs are horrible horrible horrible horrible c*nts, apart from maybe three, and even they are a bit grasping. This is now an immutable law. We are governed by insect life. And that’s that.
346. Yes Jack - being in a Tory / Lib Dem marginal seat you can see this all the time - especially with ‘incomers’. After an election or two you see people who were originally Labour tactical voters saying that they are Lib Dems - sometimes they still explain that they were always Labour before, sometimes they simply forget that.
A situation like that we are in may well see that cementing further.
368
Bill, are you one of Brown’s spads
371 - Well because if you are submitting a batch of expenses some things might get in that shouldn’t, unlike the Telegraph I don’t expect my MP’s to be burnishing halos. I really don’t think this is a big story, I think we are getting into the extremely dangerous territory where every claim is dodgy and for malicious motives. I think this was a mistake, a genuine mistake not an organised attempt to diddle.
I shall chuckle when Brown resigns and Johnson confirms he will not be running.
Will this develop into anything?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5413036/David-Mundell-Claimed-more-than-3000-on-MPs-expenses-to-take-photographs-of-himself.html
Lord Dykes of HarrowWeald, the Liberal Democrat spokesman for foreign affairs, has claimed £66,000 since 2004 by saying his main home is in Normandy. His neighbours, however, say they see him only occasionally. Florence Game-lin, who lives nearby, said: “I am certain they do not live here all the time. They are here only one or two weekends a month. It is a second home.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6396064.ece
342 - re the Daily Mail story - Sky are not running with it and this last week they have seized on every Tory they could. As this is effectively the next pm we are talking about you would have thought it would be top news if any substance at all.
Also BBC news frontpage talks about the charity donation claim and no mention of Cameron.
Remember also Telegraph said Cameron was basically clean.
381 - How many hands does that high horse you’re on measure?
386 it will get limited exposure
388 - Telegraph didn’t just say Cameron was basically clean, they said he was as clean as a whistle along with Hague and Squeaky (albeit one expensive taxi journey out of office expenses that was OTT).
Then Cameron “fess up himself” and said actually I claimed for some maintenance 7-8 years ago and looking at it maybe I shouldn’t, not sure, will set an example. And before Tim Bot goes on about Wisteria again, it now has been revealed it included other stuff likes a leaking roof, making it sound more and more like a completely valid claim and more of a PR / setting an example exercise.
342 We all thought that when Damian McBride was given his marching orders, that was the end of the smear campaign,dont forget the dregs are still there
390. It’s isnt black and white.
But it could be a negative.
386 - Will this develop into anything? Negative.
384. Tell me again, how do you mistakenly claim for a £5 donation to the offertory box at a church service, especially without a receipt.
You have to sit down and remember what you have paid out which you can claim back. At this point you remember the five quid you gave to the church at that service.
At this point any remotely moral human being thinks “Jesus Christ, of course I can’t claim for that!”, and maybe laughs ruefully at himself for even allowing such a nasty thought to cross his mind.
But if you are a Labour MP, you think: Yeah, great, I can claim for that five quid! That fiver I put IN A CHURCH OFFERTORY BOX DURING A SERVICE!, and you actually write it down on your expenses claim, without blushing.
That seems, to me, the only way this can have happened. And if you can point out the “error” in this I’d be grateful - unless, of course, you mean the error we all made in electing such a revolting specimen to public office.
386 marcia
The photography stuff looks basically OK to me - especially as he fairly obviously uses his cameras a lot.
Where things might be dodgy is making a copyright mistake, and then claiming the cost of his mistake on expenses.
Also, the little stuff - beer! gingerbread santa! gingerbread rudolph! could go either way - mirth or fury.
But overall it seems relatively minor stuff. Then again, Scotland is a kind of special case. How many expenses scandals have there been up there?
386. Mundell does seem to be overexposed!
.
.
Simon [370] If some Labour MPs want to take the Lib Dem whip - as long as their expenses are in order - I see no reason why we shouldn’t welcome them on board. Is Nick Palmer listening?
But as the Lib Dem vote is going to be 12% (Populous) or 25% (ICM) I think we had all better wait until next Sunday.
The owners of the mail and Telegraph are for some strange reason shit scared and terrified of Cameron becoming prime Minister. All of which makes me more determined than ever to vote for him.
Dacre is a buddy of Brown (which must make him serially strange) and thge Telegraph editor is a pal of Ed Balls.
Can anyone suggest why any self respecting Tory should buy these papers (as opposed to reading them on line and ignoring all the adverts)?
393 snap decision led the paper to zoom in on his claims.
poor guy is probably recovering in a darkroom
Will the Cameron story affect the polls/votes, or his authority in the party?
The Mail article is also a bit of a hatchet job on Gove. He is hardly a flipper when he changed designation once and chose to announce in the biggest selling national newspaper that he was moving his family back to London, against the wishes of his constituants. Politically, expenses were not an issue - and he might have been better served politically by being less honest and not drawing attention to himself.
The 7,000 furniture might be an issue - but we all knew about the John Lewis list.
401
NO
401 nope. not one iota on either score
398. 25% was Westminster!
It was 20% for the Euro’s!
400 - the best reply so far
399 - In the case of the Mail it might also be by their standards he is too liberal lefty
386 Might depend on what sort of pictures of himself he was taking.
398 - Iccy, twas slightly tongue in cheek, but cheers for answering.
401 AnnaK
The Mail’s comments section will make interesting reading. Normally they are very pro-Cameron.
I have an open mind about how this will develop. Remember, a ‘non-story’ about George Osborne and a yacht nearly destroyed his career.
LOL the Sky paper review is with the Mail on Sunday woman…. hahahaha lets see what she says about the story!
totally and completely off topic but ‘kin ell, this is impressive.
http://www.youtube.com/user/damienwalters
389. I’m not a f*cking MP.
You understand? I’m not paid by the taxpayer.. I don’t belong to a party that claimed it would be whiter than white. I don’t make laws by which you live. I don’t sit in government and lecture “benefit cheats” and “fatcat bankers” while fiddling the taxpayer for every shekel that’s going.
I’m not a f*cking MP.
At which juncture will these fairly basic points gain ingress into the tiny bubblechamber that is your brain?
itv news leading on Brown’s poll nightmare and leadership questions
.
.
Maisie [392] Actually it is still not clear whether Damian McBride has actually been dismissed from the Civil Service. When asked the Civil Service (Cabinet Office) refer the question to No 10 - who have not as yet responded.
If it did come out that he was still being paid or even got a large payment in lieu of notice etc., then I am not sure the fan would cope.
410 - The problem for Squeaky was having chief Tory fund raiser hanging off him. No fund raiser, don’t think it goes anyway, other than to make him look a prat for having a cozy time with Mandy. The other factor was the BBC going mental on the story.
Lets see what happen with this tomorrow, if BBC (and Sky) ignore it, and I guess Cameron will shoot down the Mail effectively (while snot gobbler makes an arse of himself on BBC) it will be end of it.
This is interesting on the Euro plus locals and benchmarks for the GE:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6395942.ece
Tories need 250 gains in council elections
I believe very few MPs who claim they made a mistake. It’s the sort of attempt to get out of being caught that teachers get all the time. We don’t believe students who try it on and people won’t believe MPs.
What sort of self serving arrogance makes them think they can treat us so contemptuously?
Let’s face it, if so many make mistakes then we have a completely inept bunch. So - they’re stupid or corrupt - either way it’s unacceptable.
403 - agreed, no.
Some Labour mp’s have already worked it out, the country has made up its mind, Labour need to be evicted in a humliating fashion.
I hope the hatchet job back fires on the mail on sunday,like me I will not be buying that crap again.
ooooh anyone else seen the Telegraph cartoon of gordon as “toast”
390 - you are right.
In six months time if Dave is defending first past the post,second jobs, and pays off his first mortgage from money given to him as part of an IHT avoidance scheme while maxing the take from the taxpayer on his second home then perhaps we know why the Tories don’t want Johnson.
395 - If you are intent on acting as a one man lynch mob who refuses point blank to even think rationally about how an error can possibly be made in this or in any other case such as to remove dishonest intent from certain claims then I won’t stop you. I just think that this attitude that all MP’s are bad unless they can prove they aren’t is deeply corrosive and is actually way wide of the mark. The problem with the Telegraph stories are that they are conflating two issues, the first is deeply stupid, irresponsible and in some cases potentially criminal activity by a minority of MP’s and the second is a hopeless system that was incapable of standing up to public scrutiny.
360.PfP
But I am a secret Doris Day fan… 
366.Oops, sorry Marcia. You are right, I am thinking of someone entirely different. Mcgovern, that is the one?
377.”One person droning on about something does not amount to a discussion.”
395 (being a bit of a tim on this but it niggles me)
.. just as when making a claim for Council Tax you would have to look at the demand to find out what you were being asked to pay, and yet somehow you fail to notice that you are claiming more than you are paying, and you make same mistake for 5 years….though could be a genuine mistake because Fellow of the Royal Society of Statisticians Jack Straw is apparently poor at figures.
418. When it comes to MPs, Jack Straw was nearly right: “honesty is not their strong suit”.
We need something like Pride’s Purge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pride’s_Purge
I want to hear the clack of bootspurs in the Commons, I want to see the miscreants being marched out at pikepoint, I want the worst of them thrown in the Tower.
I want a new start and a new parliament and a new constitutional settlement.
The big thing for Cameron NOT to say if asked tomorrow is “was within the rules”.
The Telegraph did a great hatch job video of all the MP’s who kept wittering about “within the rules”, “the system, the system its broken, its rotten, it needs changing”. They had Brown and Clegg looking like complete t##ts going on about it and no sign of Cameron because he has spouted quite the opposite.
I think he needs to say I used the ACA exactly for what it says on the tin, cost of a 2nd home, nothing else, in fact I reduced my cost, blah blah blah.
401. My guess. I think Cameron’s becoming Teflon coated through leading the charge on Scamalot - people will want to think at least one of them is clean and that’ll make em think this story is just a smear.
The Levin woman from the Mail on Sunday doesn’t even know the details of the story - she thinks it is accusign Cameron of paying off his London mortgage with taxpayer money and if he shows that it was paid with shares he sold he will be ok.
LOL
423. James, I see you have failed to answer my question, how anyone could mistakenly claim for money they put in the donations box at a church service.
How do you do that by mistake? Do you have an answer? Mmm? Thought not.
BTW Here’s a better link for Pride’s Purge (I hope):
http://tinyurl.com/mnven3
OK now I’m off to finish my Isla Negra. Ciaociao.
We do live in a a weird world where the Mail does a hatch job on the Tory leader, the Telegraph goes really hard on Tory MP’s (Labour as well, but definitely not going easy on the Tories, as Mandy and BBC was trying to claim in week 1).
While on the flip side, the Guardian hacks call him Dave in an overly friendly way at Prezza’s, and let him write pages and pages about his vision for the future.
Sally is right IMO that most voters are fairly relaxed about the basic idea of MPs having a second home to work in Parliament. I don’t think they are quite as relaxed about the second home being a very large house in the middle of the countryside, since this sits uneasily with the concept of it being ‘necessarily and exclusively’ in order to make it possible to do the job properly. Any sensible voter would agree that if the MP’s main home is in London, he needs a constituency pad too. But does he need a constituency mansion?
This Cameron non-story was on of McBrides smears, wanting to force Cameron to reveal his wealth to embarass him and make Brown look like a PM of the people. Very dissapointing from The Mail, but Cameron is too policically aware to fall into a Brown bear trap.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5413894/MPs-expenses-Labours-Frank-Cook-claimed-5-for-church-collection.html
Anyone hear him earlier on R5? Thought he was going to cry. Seemed to be saying that a staff member filled in the claim.
I dont think I can cope with reading another of Tim’s posts about IHT tonight. Tim doesnt get it, wont get it even when its explained to him by Ken in great detail. I feel sorry for Tim, he’s rather like the pupil, however hard teacher tries, is never going to pass his GCSE’s, writing his name in the top right hand corner is even a struggle.
I think I’ll wait to see how Patsy Marr deals with Brown in the Morning.
Goodnight all/.
424 - the only local MP not to have put his expenses online. The Courier keep having a dig at him for not doing so. They will keep on at him until he does.
429 - Huh, paying off his London home with taxpayers money? Smear or stupidity or both? How exactly would he have done that given he was claiming for the one in Witney and nothing else?
Here are the two questions I expect Marr to ask Brown tomorrow morning:
- Whether he expects a challenge to his leadership if the Euro results are as disastrous as the polls are predicting and:
- When he expects to make his first Cabinet level sackings over the expenses scandal.
Please feel free to add your own.
Goodnight all.
384. Well, you can’t really claim for a donation to the church collection by mistake, because there’s no record or receipt. However, like the wreaths, it’s probably a legitimate expense. It just looks … other than good.
432, Nick conversely, does the MP have to max out the allowance because he wants too, because it’s a little more convienient for him? Then proudly admit to doing that on a public website forum.
435
OMG even Nick Palmer is at it too. Nick… Do you need to spend 1100 a month on rent (or is it even more), you could share with Tim for 50 quid.
On the recall debate, the threshold in California according to Wikipedia:
“The number of signatures must equal 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous elections. For the 2003 recall elections, that meant a minimum of 900,000 signatures, based on the November 2002 statewide elections.”
12% would seem a bit low for the UK? - that would be only 8000 signatures in the Isle of Wight.
429 No. I think she is not misunderstanding it at all.
I think she is highlighting, however unwittingly, the slur.
They are trying to imply he took out the mortgage on the second home - held onto the cash for 4 months and then used it to pay off his first home.
The amounts don’t match, there is a gap of four months and he then went on to pay dome off his second home anyway.
EDIT: Plus he paid it off with shares. But if he can prove the that - then the smear is disproved.
432 - So Nick, why does Cameron not cost us the taxpayer as much as you (on ACA)? On yes, that expensive London pad you have is just too convenient, sob sob,…..
The size of his house is utterly irrelevant and just more class warfare. The truth is he is charging less to the taxpayer each year for his mortgage interest (on his mansion as you put it, other people class it as a family home in the countryside and the majority was paid out of his own pocket) than you are for the rent on your “tiny crash pad”.
Nick when I started posting on here, I didn’t mind you are at all, but you are just turning into a “Tim Bot”-esque smearer! It is a) pretty unedifying and b) pathetic!
240- Hi Roger. Long time no see.
Brown is such a monumental problem to the Labour party, a problem so grave that if he stays he risks the long term survival of the party.
Brown is a loser. The worst kind of loser. One who doesn’t realise it. He quite probably suffers from a personality disorder.
Your post that it doesn’t matter is what Brown and his cronies will be playing on. But yes. It bloody well does matter.
430 - Well looking at the Telegraph story this stands out is the wording on the note “Battle of Britain church service, Sunday 17.09.06. £5 contribution to offertory on behalf of Frank Cook MP.” To me the ‘on behalf’ could be indicating that the money was placed in the box by someone other than Frank Cook and that that person wrote it down as means of remembering what had gone on and that it somehow got placed in with a pile of genuine claims purely in error.
I just refuse to believe that every MP is rotten as I know categorically that that is not the case. I also know from experience outwith of being an MP that all sorts of errors can occur when you are trying to do several things at once, and be in several places at once. I just don’t go in for this yokelish rush to the burning torches and pitchforks.
RE 432 Of course it is a nonsence to have a house in the country in the middle of a rural constituency. Perhaps Nick could nominate a larger town that Cameron should have lived in. The photos that I have seen of his constituency home are certainly not of a mansion. One perhaps should also bear in mind the needs of his family until earlier this year. Rather a snide post and misleading as well.
432. On the flip side of that he had significant equity in his constituency home in terms of Loan to Value ratio when he bought it £350,000 Mortgage to £300,000 equity if the price was £650,000!
Added to which at least it is in his constitiency not like some Cabinet Ministers IIRC! I think some had second one neither in London or their seat!
Maybe when he was claiming a similar level to you he should have just rented
I think NP is one of the honest MPs - His problem lies in his first name given the attitude of most of the public to MPs!!!
Who would want to be called ‘NICK’ if you were an MP in the current climate!
449 - Not as bad as Bill CASH !!!!
The prospect of Balls at the Treasury is not being well-received at LabourHome - yuck, yuck!
http://www.labourhome.org/forum/?p=5142
447 - We’ve had that offensive use of Camerons son before.
He bought the house before he had children.
Now shut up and stop using a childs disability for political purposes.
#435
Andrew Marr will deliver a series of slow underarm questions which Brown will deign to answer by reference to his self-proclaimed ’saving of the world’, ‘taking the tough decisions’, ‘doing the right thing’, feigned poignant emotional moment specifically engineered to block Cameron appearing on the 9 o’clock news over the loss of Jennifer - seagueing awkwardly into how much ‘investment’ he’s made in the NHS because … dah dah … it’s the ‘right thing to do’.
Any questions about expenses will be padded away exclusively by reference to ‘duck houses, ‘moats’ and ’swimming pools’. There will be absolutely no reference to ‘oak beams’, ‘bath plugs’, ‘porn videos’, ‘wreaths’, ‘Battle of Britain’ donations or Alistair ‘four flats’ Darling.
Andrew Marr will make no effort at all to press him - how could he be so heartless after Brown’ tearful and entirely spontaneous baring of his soul over the death of Jennifer…
Not that he presses Brown any other week either.
Entirely predictable.
449,martin ,the guy who runs libvoice said he had to ban some posters were you one of them ?
442 - I wouldn’t necessarily advocate it, but don’t think you would get that many recalls even if you had quite a low threshold. People would fairly quickly find that MPs recalled for no good reason would win the by-election very easily on a “not cricket”/sympathy vote thing.
Personally speaking, I wouldn’t sign a petition simply on the basis I didn’t like the MP’s party.
#435
Andrew Marr will deliver a series of slow underarm questions which Brown will deign to answer by reference to his self-proclaimed ’saving of the world’, ‘taking the tough decisions’, ‘doing the right thing’, feigned emotional moment specifically engineered to block Cameron appearing on the 9 o’clock news over the loss of Jennifer at this particulary poignant time - the seven year and four month anniversary - segueing awkwardly into how much ‘investment’ he’s made in the NHS because … dah dah … it’s the ‘right thing to do’.
Any questions about expenses will be padded away exclusively by reference to ‘duck houses, ‘moats’ and ’swimming pools’. There will be absolutely no reference to ‘oak beams’, ‘bath plugs’, ’smut videos’, ‘wreaths’, ‘Battle of Britain donations’ or Alistair ‘four flats’ Darling.
Andrew Marr will make no effort at all to press him - how could he be so heartless after Brown’s emotional and entirely spontaneous baring of his soul over the death of Jennifer …
Not that he presses Brown any other week either.
Entirely predictable.
Nick. There is a ceiling on the amount - regardless of the size of the house or the location.
My MP seems to be claiming the full amount. The Ball’s are double claiming. Surprising seeing as neither place costs the earth and one [Classy Cas] is cheaper than chips.
450 at least there are no MP’s called Swindells. Good for an election leaflet ‘Vote for Swindells.
with that, goodnight all.
436.Marcia, Mcgovern popped up on Scottish Newsnight to defend Martin a few weeks back. Very poor performance, and just typical of the Scottish Labour mafia up here. One of the less high profile Labour MP’s as well. A bit like Doran, who when he was my MP had only one claim to fame, and it involved being named as one of the 10 MP’s who had spoken the least in Parliament!
There is another reason why I feel I know Jim Devine’s name though, but I cannot think of it off the top of my head right now. Was he involved in any big stories a few years ago?
The danger to Cameron is the people who don’t buy the MoS but see the headline - a classic smear job, with the Labour “Toff in country mansion” story that Nick P repeats. Means he has to defend himself and its a “when did you stop beating your wife” situation.
Lets have balance. Meanwhile we have Gordon Brown, choosing to live in a London Flat in addition to a Grace & Favour home, which is such a pigsty apparently that a one bedroomed flat needs 7 hours “professional” cleaning a week, reading his Himmelfarb lit by taxpayer funded lightbulbs before watching a bit of rugby on his taxpayer funded Sky TV, while Mrs Brown makes cocoa (possibly bought with a taxpayer funded food allowance) in the taxpayer funded kitchen (which he gave to her as a gift on reaching No 10 along with any other taxpayer funded improvements to his flat).
456 - Not just double claiming, the CBeebies had a go at quadruple claiming (on two separate occasions)!!!!
Just so we can all get the full measure of how disgusting Nick Palmer is, here is David Cameron, at home, in a photo that says more about his housing needs than a thousand vile slurs from cockroaches like Palmer and “tim”.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/12/11/1229007226372/cameron2.jpg
451 Your link demonstrates in the clearest terms, why those who us who cheer on the demise of Ed Balls and a Tory victory in Morley may be being very short sighted.
His loss could be their gain.
459,totally agree ted.
450. Oracle It could have been worse
Nick Cash MP!
453. I have not been on there for weeks! They did stop me shoving stuff up but i have not been on it for a while! Crikey if they cannot take a little joking - good job they will never be opposition or government!
459 - They might do, but not sure if it isn’t repeated over and over again via BBC, Sky or newspapers, day after day, people will remember it in 2-3 weeks, let alone 2-3 months (or even a year).
I doubt a lot of people know or remember what Gordo claimed for, and until somebody mentioned even YatchGate had completely gone from my consciousness regarding Squeaky (and he isn’t exactly a fav of mine!) and that was something that was bashed way out of proportion.
459 Ted. The bunker doesn’t think these things through, ever.
461 - Another person trying to use a disabled child to justify Camerons maximum mortgage claims.
Thats disgusting Sean.
He bought the house before Ivan was born.
461 - I don’t think there’s much in the Mail story but equally I don’t really see the point you are trying to make with that picture.
464,I’ve been on a few times,they don’t seem to like me,don’t know why.
432.NickP. wrong. Did you see my post up thread about Boris in Henley? Cameron and Boris have two big Tory associations, in two very expensive hot spots. Lets have a bit of perspective please. I know that my MP Robert Smith and his neighbour Malcolm Bruce are certainly not sitting in a couple of shoe boxes around this area.
458 - he was in the news before the expenses scandals became a daily event in the Telegraph.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2505731.0.0.php
462 - Well I guess that if Balls loses Morley then both Labour and Tory supporters will rejoice
As I thought the expense row exposes those like Cameron who were able to (ab)use the second homes allowance to finance huge mortgages outside London.
Cameron should have used his second homes allowance to fund his London property. He has abused this allowance as cynically as anyone else.
Brown too has abused it cynically for buying kitchens, and cleaners.
It is pretty risible that Cameron or Brown are trying to make any political capital at all on something that they have had both profited on..
473 - are you blind or just stupid. Cameron used the ACA to pay for the mortgage interest on his second home. End. The fact that it was a large mortgage is neither here nor there.
seant
So I take our resident vigilante on MPs expenses if not minded to chose Whitney as high priority target.
Let’s not also forget that Nick Palmer claims the full amount of ACA “just for convenience”, and then bleats about “not going into parliament for the money” while raking in six figures annually, and tim is a musty little goblin of a beetfarmer who gloats about his six figure CAP subsidies.
473 Tyson, Cameron’s children go to school in London, London is his main home.
412. Brilliant stuff - I love parkour, wish I’d thought of it myself when younger.
473 Tyson. What you are saying is that because Cameron is rich he is expected to bear the cost of second home himself. Is that correct?
467 - Yes but if you are planning a family and have to be in two places then one would, I suggest, make sure that if you did have to move it would be one house only.
I would also point out that others may not be as obsessively clued up about the dates of birth of every child of David Cameron and to call posters disgusting on that basis, is shabby, despicable and entirely in character.
461- Seant- possibly ranks as the most pathetic pbCOM post of the year. And that is saying something!
473 - Why should Cameron have used ACA to fund his London property?
He lives with his family in London, his main home! He got elected in Witney, he requires a home there for his job, and parliament provide expenses for some of that via ACA. He bought a house in his constituency and charged the mortgage interest to the taxpayer.
Unlike some of the flippers / changers on all sides that kept flipping around their main home, it is obvious why Cameron main home is London, he lived there before he was elected, and his wife runs a business there and now his kids go to school there. His connection to Witney is only via his job.
“John Rentoul: A weekend of woe is not the finale”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-a-weekend-of-woe-is-not-the-finale-1693376.html
“The Lib Dems alone are truly serious about voting reform”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/31/voting-reform-liberal-democrats
473. I think that is nonsense!
He had his London house since 1995!
He bought the House in Witney his 2nd home in 2001 and put £300,000 into it (Cash/Equity) and a mortgage of £350,000 for a total value of £650,000. He has not flipped it and he treats it as a second home i.e. He is in London most of the week. Indeed i should have imagine he stayed in London alot until recently for obvious reasons in relation to the closeness of Londons specialist hopitals.
That is not playing the system.
479- no, not in the slightest. All I am saying is that Cameron should have used the second home allowance to fund his place in London. Presumably that it was it was there for.
The 2nd home allowance is intended to support people to work in London who live away from it. It is not intended for people to manipulate to pay for their own homes away from London a la Cameron.
480 - He went to the trouble of finding a photograph of the disabled child.
The least I would expect is to know how old he was.
443.SallyC, I know that both Cameron and Samantha have families that are wealthy. But I think that they have earned their current wealth, and that is often missed on here, especially when some want to smear.
Cameron married a very talented and canny businesswomen, and those smears do her, and them a disservice.
486 - No it isn’t you idiot! The 2nd home allowance is there to provide support for the cost of running a 2nd home, be it near Parliament or in your constituency!
There is no rule that says your 2nd home has to be London, in fact it is completely the opposite.
The rules specifically say your main home is the one where you spend most time. Now I think it is absolutely clear where Cameron lived before he was elected and where he spends the vast majority of his time, and it ain’t Oxfordshire!
If Cameron used the ACA to pay for his London home he would be in mega doo doo, like ohhh I don’t know, oh yes I do, Jacqui Smith!!!!
376. It would get messy. It won’t happen.
But for the sake of argument, what would probably happen is that a “Senex”-type figure would write a letter to The Times making the constitutional position clear. Brown would be told publicly that asking for a dissolution to head-off a leadership challenge would be denied and result in his de facto dismissal, plunging the country into a constitutional crisis, since what happens next is undefined.
The Labour party would still have a majority in Parliament, but through no fault of their own would have lost their PM. Most likely a new PM would emerge from the cabinet and limp on until asking for their own dissolution. Cameron would probably not be asked to form a government.
486 Tyson, you are just wrong on this, London is the Cameron’s main home.
467. You are horrible. You really are a horrible horrible piece of work, tim. You lie and smear and smear and lie, when a child dies you manage to stop for about a minute, then off you go again: Eton Eton Eton, big house big house big house, yak yak yak yak yak.
You’re just disgusting. Utterly utterly disgusting. There are turds in the main Barking Outfall with nicer personalities than you.
You are the Labour Party embodied. You are the oozing anus in the cadaver of leftism. You are the fetor of the unopened room. You are the embarrassing understain. You are the filth, the dreck, the smear, the scurf.
You are Labour. You are what is wrong. And soon you will be gone.
That cheers me up.
452.tim, do you have any idea what the Cameron’s family plans were when they bought that home? Young MP in safe Conservative seat seeks home for planned family, hopes to be in that home for many years to come!!
Oh, I moved from a one bedroom flat to a three bedroom house years ago, just on the off chance that I was going to have a family there!!
Late to this thread - an absolute bombshell of a poll. On these sort of numbers, look at what the LibDems could potentially gain from Labour:
Edinburgh South - nailed on gain come what may in my opinion
Hampstead & Kilburn
Islington South
Oxford East - very interested to see Oxfordshire CC results next week, that will give us a very firm idea how much doo doo Andrew Smith is in!
Watford - got to fancy them to complete the job here given Ali Miraj etc
Aberdeen South - one they won’t be winning after their antics on Aberdeen council me thinks
Edinburgh North
Durham
Oldham East and Saddleworth - I’ll be cheering the end of Phil Woolas!
Norwich South
Leicester South
Bradford North
Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Liverpool Wavertree
Glasgow North
Swansea West
Blaydon
Bradford East
Burnley
Sheffield Central
Edinburgh East
Birmingham Hall Green
That’s up to 20 gains in a Labour wipeout - as I’ve been saying for a while, I still feel that Lib Dem seats rate as a buy.
491 - I agree with you on that, Cameron lived and worked in London for years,his wife works in London and their children go to school in London.
Ivan Cameron was treated in hospitals in London.
The point here is not to do with London being there first home.
Christina
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFGTNz6RUZw
486 - hey idiot, read the Green Book:
“If your main home is in the constituency, you can
claim ACA for overnight stays in London”
“If your main home is in London you can claim for
overnight stays in the constituency.”
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/HofCpsap.pdf
The ACA is used for whichever home is the second home. Drop this ‘it has to be in London’ crap.
Just to clarify, when Cameron bought his house in Witney, as far as I can tell with the dates his wife was pregnant. Might be a need for a family home, no?
I just canot get my head around all the class envy that still exits in Britain. It really is so stupid.
479- actually c- most people should benefit from the 2nd homes allowance because London housing costs are that much more expensive. People who flip the allowance to their constituency homes are using it pretty cynically to increase their income. Not just Cameron. Loads of them.
And to boot. Cameron’s home is close to Chadlington. Alot of people in Chadlington, Chipping, and Charlbury commute to London. My wife and I did it for the best part of a year. We saw Douglas Hurd frequently. Cameron could quite easily have commuted like the rest of us. Last train from Paddington is 12.00. I often caught that, and caught an early one the next day. What working people have to do.
487 - Yes because we all carry around in our heads all the dates and details of every child of ever politician. You might be that psychotic but most of the rest of us are here for genuine political discussions not the smears, distortions, lies and other assorted venom, spite and bile that you trade in.
With that I’m heading off although I think the wedding down the way will cause me to lose sleep as they are playing dodgy music at a zillion decibels.
492 - Calm down Sean.
You’ve just tried to use a disabled childs birth and care to justify a house purchase two years before his birth.
Now go to bed.
Fewer photographs, more knowledge next time please.
439.Ted, check out the size of the house that Gordon Brown had in his constituency, way before he married and had a family. Its huge.
Oracle - apologies last night for rushing to judgement on Bill Cash, should have known better.
Christina (from last night) - yes I know a vote for Libertas in the Euros won’t achieve very much, but such is my annoyance with the Conservatives on so many issues - climate change, support for banking bailouts, MP’s expenses etc then I feel it is incumbent upon me to register a protest, of course at the GE I’ll be voting Conservative, and I’m voting Conservative in the Oxfordshire County Council elections knowing the local candidate who is a very nice man.
Tyson, Cameron lives in London, as do his wife and children. The children go to school in London, state school I may add. A severely disabled child would have required specialist hospital treatment, provided in London. As leader of a political party, Cameron would naturally spend more time in London. His London residence is his primary home.
What is so hard for you to understand?
500 - Tyson, must be hard to breath and type at the same time when you are as thick as you are!
492 Sometimes Sean you find just the words we can’t say but wish we could.
500. Should MPs from say Leeds flydown to London each day from the regional airport each day then?
507 - Amen.
491- I am sure London is Cameron’s main home, but the additional homes allowance is set up for people who live outside London to work in London.
Cameron used this allowance as cynically as the many other to fund his most expensive outgoing- his Oxfordshire home, one incidentally he could quite easily have commuted from.
502 - You might need to do some more research. Class A cretin. David Cameron was elected in June 2001, Ivan was born in April 2002. The house was I assume bought some time after June 2001 but even so it isn’t 2 years even in remedial maths.
510 - “the additional homes allowance is set up for people who live outside London to work in London”
WRONG…!
510 - Look you tard!
“The Additional Costs Allowance (cost of staying away from main home/ACA) is paid to reimburse Members for necessary costs incurred when staying overnight away from their main home for the purpose of performing parliamentary duties.”
http://www.parliament.uk/about_commons/hocallowances/hocallowances06.cfm
Which bit of this dont’ you understand!
Cameron main home, London. Cameron 2nd home, Oxfordshire, ACA there for cost of staying away from main home.
510. I should imagine his London Home is worth more than the Oxfordshire one!
455 jgm2 Brilliant
502. tim, we’re on a new page. I’ve forgotten which of my posts you were referring to?
Was it the one where I called you a “musty little hobgoblin of a beetfarmer who gloats about his six figure CAP subsidies”?
Or was it this one when I said: “tim, you’re just disgusting. Utterly utterly disgusting. There are turds in the main Barking Outfall with nicer personalities than you.”
Or was it this bit, when I said “You are the Labour Party embodied. You are the oozing anus in the cadaver of leftism. You are the fetor of the unopened room. You are the embarrassing understain. You are the filth, the dreck, the smear, the scurf.”
Sorry but this new comment system confuses all of us at times. No offence!
510 - “but the additional homes allowance is set up for people who live outside London to work in London.”
NO IT ISN’T!
Go and read my post at 497, which quotes precisely what the Green Book states. It is set up for people to claim for the cost of a second home - either in London on their constituency. Will you please grasp this concept?
510 that is incorrect Tyson, the ACA is not specifically set up to fund a London home - indeed ministers have been required to declare London as their main residence and therefore claim for the constituency property until recently (after the Cameron’s bought their Oxfordshire property for reference)
The ACA is to provide offset against the costs of running a second property - the designation of that property is determined by main residence (or, for ministers as above until 2005 from memory)
Cameron commuting is neither here nor there as Oxfordshire is not his main home.
“MANDELSON COULD LEAD REVOLT AGAINST BROWN”
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/104453/Mandelson-could-lead-revolt-against-Brown-
510 - Tyson, credit to you for commuting from those distances, I tried commuting from Abingdon to my job in the City - it’s just that bit too far to be comfortable in my opinion, particularly if there are any problems on the Central Line. It would be do-able with CrossRail - I hope that doesn’t get cut, and it was a disgrace that the Western terminus is Maidenhead, instead of Reading.
510 - Weekday last train from Paddington to, for example Charlbury, leaves before 10pm which kind of suggests to me that for late votes/meetings/engagements this necessitates the MP for Witney needing a gaff a bit nearer Westminster…
From the link
“A close ally of Lord Mandelson said the Business Secretary remained loyal to the Prime Minister but would act if Cabinet colleagues persuaded him it was in the clear interests of the party.”
Somehow I can spot a contradiction!
Tyson. I think you’re talking about what the ACA should be, not what it is.
In my world the ACA would be -
Enough money to rent a studio flat in London - and only rent. If and only if your main home is in the constituency.
OR
Enough money to rent a studio flat in your constituency.
Plus utilities and council tax.
Note that the ACA would vary - it would only ever be enough to rent a decent studio in each place.
516,don’t hold back seant.
The Unions (and Alan Watkins) swing behind PR….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/31/gordon-brown-labour-unions
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/alan-watkins/alan-watkins-save-labour-with-pr-mr-brown-1693386.html
I can’t but feel that this Labour Government is not only past the point of no return where the next election is concerned, but past the point of no return where the Labour movement as a whole is concerned. It would be ironic if Brown were to deliver the final blow to the Labour Party he seems to care about - sort of like Hitler destroying the Germany for which he always expressed such boundless love.
523 - Maybe, but you can’t have a go at somebody for doing exactly what the rules say (both letter and spirit), no fudging, retrospectively.
It is like saying, that all that money Robinho gets paid by Man City (and the massive transfer fee), he doesn’t look like he is as good as he should be for that kind of money, so we will blame him for what Man City decided to pay him.
Please, please all. Can we get some perspective here. Cameron is not a saint. He doesn’t walk on water..
Cameron knows like many others that the expense system is flawed. He benefited because he was able to put the 2nd homes allowance on his constituency home in Chadlington with a much heftier mortgage, and claim the whole lot. Other MP’s without Cameron’s mortgage had to scratch around a bit more to get the dosh. Cameron, with his mortgage, did not have to do this.
Not every MP would have done this, but many abused the expenses much worse. Brown put in 6k for a cleaner without a blinking receipt. Cameron claimed for Wisteria, Brown for a kitchen.
However, back to my point, for those of you around here, who think that Cameron walks on water, I do feel sorry for you. You will be very disappointed.
525. Is it news if nuns believe in Christ?
So, the vested interests who didn’t need converting - don’t need converting.
522 ‘New loyalty’. I will be completely and utterly loyal until it is no longer in my interests.
OOOOOOH - THE UNIONS. Hide everyone.
528 - Tyson, that wasn’t your argument to start with though! You kept claiming he should have stuck his ACA claims on his London property (and if he had done that he would have broken the rules) and that is why people were arguing.
Now you are trying to Daily Rant angle, which again doesn’t make him an offender in any way. The wisteria claimed actually included mending a leaking roof, again exactly was ACA was there for. The issues about Gordo, he is claiming for things he never uses as he doesn’t lives there and the big bug bears are really Sky Sports on the taxpayer!
528 tyson.
I know perfectly well Cameron does’t walk on water; he floats over it.
…his wings!
524. I wasn’t trying to be nasty to tim, I was actually trying to assess his good points along with his bad points: because I think gratuitous and thoughtless abuse is just silly - and indeed counterproductive.
This is a serious and prominent blog, and I think it therefore behoves us to be honest and reflective.
So, when I called him a “musty and gloating little hobgoblin” I also pointed out that he farms beets, by way of balance. And yes I compared him unfavourably to a turd, but I also refrained from saying “the turd of a leper”, which is pretty even handed of me.
Without getting too pompous, some others on this blog could learn from my balance and sensitivity.
On the subject of mortgage interest payments and MPs expenses a friend of mine came up with an interesting comparison tonight.
He works for a national company that pays him 36p a mile if he uses his own car on business. Now he has worked out that it probably only costs him half that, even taking into account wear and tear, if he were being absolutely honest but neither he nor anyone else in that position (and there are hundreds of thousands of people on similar schemes) would ever dream of going to the company and refusing to accept the full amount of milage.
As far as he is concerned the MPs interest payments are a similar situation. As long as they are not flipping nor claiming for mortgages that are already paid off, he was wondering why it is right to attack MPs who are simply operating inside the rules and claiming what they are allowed to claim?
Now since I am self employed I don’t get to benefit from such schemes but I just wondered how many other people on here get money from their companies which, in the heart of hearts, they would admit they haven’t actually had to spend out.
The second home allowance is a dogs breakfast. But the allowance is intended to pay for MP’s additional expenses when working in London. Not to buy the biggest home they can find in their constituency on an interest only mortgage thereby freeing up capital to pay off their home in London.
I think he should start off by apologizing to Bill Cash whose exploitation of the system doesn’t come close to Cameron’s.
Mike gets a mention on Politicshome.
http://www.politicshome.com/
PB analysis of ICM poll.
514- Martin. You are right. Cameron’s London home is worth much more than his Oxfordshire pile. But he hasn’t got a big mortgage on his London home, unlike Oxfordshire. And council taxes in Oxfordshire are probably higher than those in central London.
It therefore made sense for Cameron to switch his 2nd home allowance to Oxfordshire because his expenditure here was much higher.
I would have done the same quite frankly. Within the rules.
But it rankles those MP’s who didn’t have such a high mortgage to use virtually the whole allowance against.
Two nights running I come home drunk to find labour plumbing new depths in the polls.
What joy.
534,has fox news would say ,’fair and balanced’points,on tim.
534 That made me cry - in a good way.
539-I’m sure there will be plenty of nights like these one!
“And council taxes in Oxfordshire are probably higher than those in central London.”
How do you work that one out? And it doesn’t matter as he didn’t claim for it until 2007, when he put down a £100k of his own money on the Oxfordshire property.
“It therefore made sense for Cameron to switch his 2nd home allowance to Oxfordshire because his expenditure here was much higher.”
Look you f###kin moron, there was no switching involved! If there was it would be a story!
496.Roger, I loved all those Doris Day movies…still do. And lucky for me, so did my best friend from childhood.
Couple of classic favourites of mine for many years. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps
And Louis Armstrong - We have all the time in the world
538 - he didn’t switch it; the house in Oxfordshire was always his second home. And I don’t see how it would ‘rankle’ anyone; if they’re using the ACA properly, they won’t be pocketing any of it - it will all be going on payments.
516 - Seant your use of a photograph of a Camerons disabled son( in your post at 461)to justify extra housing needs on a mortgage which was taken out before the boys birth was stupid.
We are now getting into the ’second order’ level of expenses scrutiny.
Neighbours and ‘concerned citizens’ are comparing what they read in the papers and coming out to contradict MP’s stories.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189792/The-house-cost-taxpayers-120-000-tip-What-did-MP-spend-money-on.html
#539
Clearly the more you drink the less seats Labour win in the next election.
You know your duty.
536 – Roger, if you weren’t quite so stupid and deliberately provocative I’d bother rebuffing this oft repeated nonsense by you.
It must hurt seeing this evenings poll result, they may improve for Labour but take care, your standing may not.
547. Wait till the Tory “second-jobs” exposures, due anytime now…
547 - These kind of claims rarely go anywhere. Didn’t they have one about a backbench Tory and their 2nd home, and virtually never seeing the, but have met his kids.
Well if you are out until 10-11pm at night every day you are in London and then away from the place at all other times, unlikely your neighbours will meet you much. More importantly, you can’t prove anything.
504.Hunchman, fair enough, as long as you vote. Its apathy that gets me most. I just believe that if you are Eurosceptic, the Conservatives are the answer to be honest. All these votes for UKIP etc just dilute the message to be honest. A waste. Give a party in the UK the mandate to really speak out.
528. “for those of you around here, who think that Cameron walks on water, I do feel sorry for you. You will be very disappointed”
I don’t think he walks on water at all, and fully expect not to be that happy with him, once he’s in office. (Obviously I’d be glad if he surprises me.)
He didn’t abuse (in letter or spirit) the ACA though.
546. What was stupid was an irrelevant mawkish post on a grown up website. The sort of post you’d expect from Wayne.
536. Roger,
Cameron bought a witney house for £650,000.
Cameron had a Mortgage on the witney house of £350,000
Cameron therefore put £300,000 of capital into that Witney house.
So if as you infer he was taking £75K out of the witney house and playing the system why did he not just put £225K in instead? He could then have used the £75K to pay off his London house. That was before the credit crunch and i would of thought given his existing financial arrangements a new mortgage at that time would easily have been made.
I think the shares being cashed in is a viable reson for the £75K pay off of the existing Mortgage in London. Not like Brown who has cashed in on his home acquired by taxpayer funded interest and then given to his wife who harvested the Equity!
Clegg also claims full ACA IIRC.
507.”Ted says:
31/5/2009 at 12:21 am
492 Sometimes Sean you find just the words we can’t say but wish we could.”
Ted, hear, hear.
519.”Me says:
31/5/2009 at 12:28 am
“MANDELSON COULD LEAD REVOLT AGAINST BROWN””
Me, take it from me, in his dreams..
tyson - your argument falls down on one simple point. In order to ensure people don’t bill as much as they like on the mortgage or rent, the payment is capped. Many like John Gorgan, Nick Clegg and our very own Nick P - and the Ball’s - claim the full amount, even though they live in places with much lower property prices than Oxfordshire.
533.”SallyC says:
31/5/2009 at 12:37 am
528 tyson.
I know perfectly well Cameron does’t walk on water; he floats over it.
…his wings!”
SallyC, you rock!! Made me spill my wine there.
Johnson on manoeuvres
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/31/labour-elections-2009-alan-johnson
553 - I think that is it, few reasonable intelligent people think Cameron is some miracle worker / saint ala the way the media have this crazy Saint Obama attitude. Even if he is honest, trustworthy and does a decent job, the cuts to public spending that are necessary are going to be huge (with or without Cameron).
What most people are sick and tired of, I know I am, is the lies, the spin, the deliberate hatch jobs and smearing (of which tonights Cameron story is prime example). I would be sick of it if I was a Labour MP, some of the cabinet have been badly smeared!
It is one thing going for good PR on initiatives / schemes, but all the current government seem to do is produce outright lies e.g apprentice scheme, they say 1300-ish people, actually 30 new people, the rest are all civil servants who had their job titles changed.
If Cameron and crew are on the whole honest and upfront about what they are doing, even with some positive spinnage, that I think is the most we can ask / expect. The way Cameron has approached the talk of the future, it seems he has realised the general public mood and the honesty is the best policy approach seems to be in force (albeit heavily sugar coated).
I watched a Cameron Direct the other night, and there again he gave a lot of answers which weren’t exactly positive and a lot of well you probably aren’t going to like this but…50% tax will stay…student fees will stay etc.
532- Oracle- that was my argument from the outset.
The whole point of to the 2nd homes allowance is to enable people who represent constituencies outside London to work in London as MP’s by PAYING their additional expenses in London.
The 2nd homes allowance is NOT designed for rich people who live in London to opportunistically grab hold of constituencies outside London, and then finance huge properties in these by exploiting the 2nd homes allowance.
This is the problem of professional politics. We have a professional set of the London based in crowd, who can cherry pick the best seats natioanlly as and when they arrive. Usually through contacts and patronage. And then, buggar me, they can exploit the 2nd homes allowance to pay for a nice property to boot.
Step forward Mr Cameron.
Turning this around - it PROVES Cameron was trying NOT to max out his expenses. Long before anyone knew this would come out and not knowing how the cap on interest would be raised, he paid 100,000 OFF his second home. Why?
Why didn’t he bung in into an account to earn interest.
Either he helped reduce the bill - or if 100,000 didn’t make any difference to the payments, then 75,000 wouldn’t have either and is a red herring.
561 - No you f##kin thicket, ACA is nothing to do with London, it is to do with the cost of running a 2nd home! I don’t understand how you can’t get that through your thick skull!
548.”jgm2 says:
31/5/2009 at 12:45 am
#539
Clearly the more you drink the less seats Labour win in the next election.
You know your duty.”
Where are all the comedians coming from today??!!
Fitaloon did that game many years ago when sitting with a friend watching the England vs Scotland rugby match. His mate and he decided that they could only drink if their team scored….Lets say that Fitaloon managed to get hammered while his mate stayed relatively sober. Haven’t had a score line like that for many a year.
562. Yes it does not make sense what some are saying in trying to smear!
It looks clean to me! I am not just saying that because it is Cameron either! Clegg is also Clean from what i can see at the moment with regard to MP expenses. MEP - (Who Knows?)
Brown is the least clean of any of them and indeed i think it stinks!
563- Oracle- we must be on a parallel universe. Of course the 2nd homes allowance is to enable MP’s who live outside London to work there.
I am genuinely not bothered about Cameron. At least the guy had a mortgage to claim against. Brown and Darling used it to claim for stamp duty, furniture, kitchens and cleaners.
The wisteria thing took the piss though. But only 600 quid.
563. But it should be. No ones saying he’s broken the rules-they’re so loose they’re impossible to break-but the idea surely is that MP’s are obliged to work in Westminster so if their constituency isn’t in London they should be financed for spending time in the capital.
If they already live in London why should they get anything? That would pass Cameron’s famous Daily Mail test. I doubt anything else would.
The BNP candidates really aren’t very clever are they
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2009/05/bnp-vile-internet-race-rants.html
566 - You are the moron who keeps going on about ACA being for people to live in London!
Also, it wasn’t £600 for wisteria either! It was £680 for maintenance which included fixing a leaking roof, replacing outside lights and also clearing wisteria.
For £680, it seems like he got a decent deal on the work to me! Normally a workman will charge you that kind of money for turning up and going up a ladder these days!
566. I think you will find the 600 was mainly scaffolding. Health and Safety and all that -typical bl00dy Labour Government.
567. Why don’t all the Birimingham MPs go in by train or the Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle or Glasgow MPs fly in everyday
You still have not anwsered my earlier point when you alleged Cameron plays the system.
567 - Why should they be excepted to fund the cost of running a 2nd home in their constituency then?
The crux of the issue if, MP’s legitimately need to operate in at least two different places, London and their constituency. Is it fair for them to have to foot the bill for both? Because if it is, I think parliament will be even more dominated by people like Cameron who can afford to run both!
Just remember how well the Daily Mail did when they tried to make Cameron open up about his student days?? They lost that one when they went up against Cameron, and the court of public opinion. That certainly stung, but looking back, it was the first real sign of Cameron’s inner steel. Its stuff like that which chimes with voters, they like strong leader in this country. That is why PR will never get off the ground.
Guido - Chancellor Balls
573 Christina D - the picture is awesome!
567-Agreed Roger. London people should not get the 2nd allowances to help them be parachuted into a constituency and set up home there.
If they Live in London they should get sod all for cherry picking a seat somewhere else.
Front Pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-May-31-2009/Media-Gallery/200905415292052?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15292052_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_May_31%2C_2009
575 - So what about poor people who want to become MP’s, have a strong connection with a region outside of London (e.g originally come from there), but currently live in London due to work and more importantly family commitments (i.e husband or wife work in London, kids go to school in London).
There is “cherry picking” that goes on, but there is also a hell of a lot of people who due to their career or their partners career have to move to London / SE, as that is where a concentration of work is at the end of the day.
566. What you are saying would make sense if MPs were locally-based people who go up to London as MP for the place where they’ve been living for however many years. In reality, many of them have no prior connection with their constituency, and it genuinely is the constituency home that is the work-related add-on and the place that they’d have no desire to keep if they lost their seat.
562 - in which year did Camerons ACA claims fall after he paid off £100k of his Cotswolds mortgage?
They didn’t.
Please don’t tell me he paid it off down to a level where the taxpayer paid all his mortgage interest
576. I trust there is no connection between the state of the polls and the headline in the Observer.
Rather than the ACA debate i think this is far more interesting as it has now turned political:
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/104462/EXCLUSIVE-Brown-to-be-grilled-over-D-Day-fiasco-
I think Brown did this to get back for Merv & the public criticsm of Labours expense system.
573 Great link. Guido at his funniest.
572- but Oracle, we should not have a system that encourages London residents to get seats elsewhere.
Be sensible. Wouldn’t apply to a scouser. They could not get a seat in Witney whilst also living at home, and be able to pay for both.
This system helps people who live in London. People should not be encouraged to set up 2nd homes outside London.
Re, Cameron- he hasn’t done anything wrong. He has followed the rules. But he knows the system is rubbish. He has benefited from it. And it probably is unfair.
579 I which case, the 75,000 pay off is an irrelevance - a red herring - a smoke screen etc etc etc etc….
yada yada yada —if I was seant I would now talk about the smell from a Badger’s arse and fetid veruccas etc etc …………………..
578- Bingo. My point. This system encourages London based people to cherry pick parliamentary seats through patronage and contacts. And pays them for it
Twenty points down and you’re banging on about Cameron’s mortgage!
585 Tyson. Good idea. In any case Cameron was brought up in Peasmore which is only 21 miles from Witney.
Sanctimonious people usually get bitten on the bum and no one has been more sanctimonious than Cameron over the expenses fiasco (except Clegg of course but that’s what Lib Dems do). It’s very possible that various of the Tory MP’s who he’s humiliated will be delighted with this MOS story. Hell hath no fury like a Shire Tory scorned….
585 Now that is Bingo - when the talk tomorrow will be of Balls becoming Chancellor. If he ‘leaked it’ himself, he will have overshadowed the Cameron non story even more.
Balls = Incitatus
Marvellous.
EDIT: Incitatus’s ar5e more like.
Nite all. But what makes me truly angry tonight, is the BBC news coverage! They don’t see this tragic story, which they deem to be only worthy of fifth slot in order of priority, as headline news. No, BGT and some pratt claiming a charity fiver on expenses is deemed more important these days! By the way, that is now 71 soldiers who have died in the last year. It really brings it home.
UK soldiers die in Afghan blast
Mail really going for the Cameron hachet job,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1189728/Linda-Duberley-answered-David-Camerons-ordinary-non-political-MPs-So-seat.html
Bitter twisted, I wasn’t selected for a seat even though I am on the list rant at Cameron, “BUT BUT I’M A WOMEN, BUT BUT I’M NORMAL, WELL BEEN A JOURNO ALL MY LIFE….CAMERON SAYS HE WANTS NORMAL PEOPLE, WELL LIKE ME…”.
Erhh, been a journo and part of the media elite ain’t “normal” in my book!
#587
Whereas Tony Blair Old Boy of St Cakes, Edinburgh, Oxford University ends up representing Sedgefield. And juggling his mortgages on a scale that would embarrass even Alastair ‘The Invisible Man’ Darling.
589- Sally C- there is noone, yet noone that irritates me more than Ed Balls, and his Nu Lab partner. Well yes, Brown perhaps. And Jaqui Smith, and Harman, Jowell, Kelly.
And that horrific thought. Good night all.
591 I left a comment for her.
‘Perhaps you didn’t get a seat because:
1. you were not good enough - the fact you think you tick all the boxes doesn’t count - you are not exactly an objective observor. We get about 150 candidates for a reasonably good Tory seat.
2.DC doesn’t make the final choice, the association does - and as a female young member and officer - you sound a bit whiney and self centred to me - and we are trying to get away from all that.’
Might have exaggerated a tad on the young bit - but for the Tory party, I am a baby.
793 Night Ty. Don’t have nightmares!
You’re a babe Sally, as the youngsters would say.
Ahh.
Thanks.
Just looking up Caligula’s horse on Wiki [see Guido and Ed Ball's etc] and I was struck by this comment:
‘In Roman political culture, insanity and sexual perversity were often presented hand-in-hand with poor government.’
Still the case for Guido.
Seant - just wanted to say thanks for your contribution to making this a very enjoyable evening for me. Just hope the coffee will not permanently damage my flat screen.
Now, back to lurking.
145 ChristinaD
I’m an oldie and I don’t give a cat’s pussy about Maj; I rate her higher than Brown, Cameron and the rest of the bunch at the Westminster rogues gallery but only just, and you know how I feel about that slippery crew of ugly bastards.
I’m still hovering between Green and a single digit; p’raps I’ll listen to my new recording of Messager’s Veronique or maybe I won’t. Who knows? Who cares? Even I don’t care.
A thought:
As Labour does much better in Scotland and Wales what do these polls say about Labour’s performance in England?
Battling for 4th place with the Greens?
Con > UKIP > Lib Dem > Green > Labour > BNP…………
597
The psychological link is power, not the ability (or not) to govern.
YES!!!
Sorry, drunk, tired, just got back to this and will go to sleep very happy.
Has the Mail on Sunday editor gone bonkers.
Peter Wright.
Naughty, naughty.
That was hardly front page news.
Brown paid over £5,000 to his own brother for ‘cleaning’ over two years, without any evidence work was carried out, and implying a cleaners was paid £50 an hour to clean a two-bedroom flat! This borders closely on real fraud. Half the cabinet did something similar.
Cameron buying a house immediately after elected in his new consituency, and then claiming second home allowance is proper and normal.
The Mail on Sunday editor is bonkers.
Please, please grow up and report some real news Peter Wright. Or otherwise we’ll have to start investigating some of your own claims.
I bet some are a lot more suspect.
lol.
Mail also having a go at Johnson - mmmmm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1189779/Alan-Johnson-act-August-1–wards-close-people-die.html
Dark forces at work.
599. “As Labour does much better in Scotland and Wales…”
As far as Scotland is concerned that’s a myth. At the last GE, Labour got 36% across GB and 39% in Scotland. That kind of small disparity is fairly typical.
and another knock at NHS.. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/5412191/Patients-forced-to-wait-hours-in-ambulances-parked-outside-AandE-departments.html
then the bbc
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8075616.stm
Hatrick ..?
604
Labour share of vote:
England - 35.4%
Scotland - 39.5%
Wales - 42.7%
from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/constituencies/default.stm
much better in Wales - noticeably better in Scotland….
606. Pretty much confirms what I said, doesn’t it? If you regard a 4% difference as ‘noticeable’, then fair enough. But I have a sneaking feeling that most people are under the misapprehension that Labour tend to do perhaps 8-12% better in Scotland than in England.
602. I did the maths on the actual cleaning contract shown a bit ago, and the sum worked out at about £8.30 an hour, £50 is based on some seriously wacky assumptions.
615 - in just over one week we will know what percentage of vote they are polling. What we have to compare it with will be what they polled in 2004 not 2005.