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Month: May 2009

Could this give Saffron Waldon to the Lib Dems?

Could this give Saffron Waldon to the Lib Dems?

Telegraph Is Heffer too right wing to become the “White suit” candidate? If I was the Lib Dem PPC in the Essex seat of Saffron Walden I’d be getting very excited this morning following the announcement by controversial Telegraph columnist, Simon Heffer, that he plans to stand against the sitting MP, deputy speaker, and MP allowance claimer, Sir Alan Haselhurst. Just look at the numbers. The notional 2005 result in the seat was: CON: 25593 (50.5%) LD: 14715 (29%) LAB:…

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Will Labour lose all of these a week on Thursday?

Will Labour lose all of these a week on Thursday?

Am I going to win my William Hill bet? Nearly a month ago William Hill put up a market for a short while on the June 4th country councils elections that in several places are happening at the same time as the Euro elections. The bet was simple: 2/1 that Labour would lose control of all of its remaining county – the four featured above. So it’s been very interesting following the canvassing reports of Nick Palmer – MP for…

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Two June 4th prediction surveys

Two June 4th prediction surveys

What will Labour’s GB vote share be in the June 4th Euro Election 0 – 16% 17 – 18% 19 – 20% 21 – 22% 23 – 24% 25 – 26% 27 – 100%    The second poll has now been fixed What will be the turnout across the UK in the June 4th Euro election? 0 – 20% 21 – 25% 26 – 28% 29 – 31% 32 – 35% 36 – 38% 39 – 100%   

Can Dave go on “out-Blairing” Tony Blair?

Can Dave go on “out-Blairing” Tony Blair?

Guardian.co.uk Has he created another 24 hours not talking about Europe? I am coming to the view that when it comes to tapping into the public mood and dominating the news agenda David Cameron is even smarter than the past-master, the leader that Labour foolishly sacked, Tony Blair. Just consider what’s happening at the moment. There’s just one week and one day left in the campaign for five yearly election of members of the European Parliament and yet another news…

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Will you be profiting from the great turnout gamble?

Will you be profiting from the great turnout gamble?

Is this the nearest thing to a certainty that you’ll get? In political betting I am always wary of the term certainty but sometimes an opportunity arises when I’m convinced that what I’m betting on will come about. The last time I had this feeling was nearly a year ago when Ladbrokes had a market up on whether Labour would lose its deposit in the Henley by election. To me it seemed a certainty that Labour would get less than…

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An afternoon with Alistair Campbell

An afternoon with Alistair Campbell

What would the great spinner have done about Johnson? This thread has been “prepared earlier” because I’m off to Wembley for the Championship play-off final between my team, Burnley, and Sheffield United. This’ll be the third time that the “Clarets” have played at Wembley since 1962 and I will have been there on every occasion. Burnley’s most well-know supporter is, of course, Alistair Campbell and I’m sure he’ll be amongst the crowds this afternoon as will the town’s MP, the…

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Expenses: It’s back to exposing the Cabinet again

Expenses: It’s back to exposing the Cabinet again

Telegraph Will this re-ignite the anger? After a period when the Telegraph’s daily revelations about MPs expenses were starting to get a bit routine the paper has turned once again to the detailed affairs of the cabinet – folk you would think would have the political skills to know better. Thus the main lead in the Telegraph this morning looks as though it could have real damage on ministers beyond the standard outrage of what they and other MPs have…

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Will the Sunday Express win the first PB Polling Dunce award?

Will the Sunday Express win the first PB Polling Dunce award?

What do we think of this attempt to gauge public opinion? This weekend, the penultimate before the June 4th Euro elections, I am please to announce the launch of PB Polling Dunce award which has been specially designed by Marf. The objective, I hope, is self-explanatory. And our first nominee is the Sunday Express for its piece below on Westminster constituency surveys which were carried out in Salford, Worcester and Basildon and according to the paper the results were very…

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