Marf’s view of the day
June 2nd, 2009
How’s this going to affect Thursday elections?
With just one day’s campaigning left the big political story, once again, has nothing to do with Europe. We’ve got the cabinet re-shuffle coming up and the very messy way in which news of this is coming out.
Latest word is that Brown will announce his changes on Monday - the day after the Euro results are known.
Meanwhile the betting activity has been stepped up and there’s an interesting range of Euro vote markets from Sporting Index which should be up again in the morning. I like the spread bet on turnout percentages.
We’ve had a Euro poll from ComRes which has been commissioned by the Green Party - who come out rather well. The shares are - CON 24%: LAB 22%: LDEM 14%, UKIP 17%: Green 15%: BNP 2%. The poll was not past vote weighted which generally means that the sample would not have been politically balanced and skewed quite considerably towards Labour. It is for this reason that I’m not attaching much importance to it.
This is the sort of polling that they had at the 1992 general election
Our cartoon, as ever, is by Marf of LondonSketchbook.com
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Con 24? Unlikely
Edit: and to follow a pattern: “first”
Channel 4 basically reading Brown’s obituary, the most awful coverage for him. Its like 1990 all over again. except even more chaotic.
third
Labour’s position in euros: 4th!!!!
May I ask again please,
how much creibiity can we put on NPMPs claims that the postal votes in certain constituencies are looking bad for the Tories?
I was under the impression that although the voter registration forms were checked when the postal votes arrived, the actual votes were counted along with all the other votes after polls closed.
Is this correct or will they alredy have started counting postal votes?
Just had a highly negative leaflet through the door from the a party known for such activity. It’s a mock leaflet pretending to be from another party. It bears another party’s emblem
It only has an imprint on the back at most 1-2mm high.
Legal?
FPT
Stars and Stripes, has anyone called GM ‘American Leyland’ yet?
How much good taxpayers money is Obama proposing to throw after bad?
C4 doing a piece on the elections in Nottinghamshire, will NP be on it.
The Green party do well in a poll…….comissioned by the Green Party.
Now there’s a surprise!
ComRes are all over the place. If Labour are only two percentage points behind the Conservatives then I’m a Martian.
5 no counting allowed (in euros) until sunday evening
I will have to wait for C4 news + 1 hr to review it, but it all seems to be one hell of a mess. The final nail in Labour’s coffin IMHo will be if Balls is made Chancellor.
“how much creibiity can we put on NPMPs claims that the postal votes in certain constituencies are looking bad for the Tories?”
Zero.
NPMP is making it up as he goes along.
He makes delphic utterances such as ‘in some wards the Conservatives are not doing as well as they had hoped’ without revealing which areas, how well the Conservatives had apparantly hoped to do and how far below this hope they supposedly are.
If i were Brown i would do a reshuffle after PMQ’s tommorrow!
It would eclipse the battering Brown is likely to get but if Brown offers the nations favourite postman a descent job i could not see him challanging Brown as leader. Johnson is no fool - Labour will not win the next election and in some ways a good cull increases his chances of being Labour leader. He may never be PM but the circumstances now for a change of government offer a future Labour opposition leader more options than the booming economy offered the Tories in 1997 onwards (Even if Labour made it unsustainable). I doubt Labour will sniff power for 10 years but the postman may offer the chance in opposition of reinvigarating them! He is after all a former trade union leader and a chipper person, maybe useless as PM but the skills for PM are different to leader of the opposition!
Personally i think Brown has not just bad judgement but advice as well!
I’m knitting beneath the guillotine waiting for Gordo’s tumbrel to come into view.
Any help with my request at no6. I need some serious electoral boffin help.
My flatmate, who is studying for a masters just saw the Labour election broadcast and said he was going to vote for them. Wow must be hard hitting. He believed that the tories would be worse as they lead us into a much worse recession in the 90s and that we are in a worldwide recession with which Brown was merely a victim (i.e. Labour was not at fault). When I tried to reason with him he kept attacking the tories even though I am not a tory voter, maybe hes deluded lol?!?The strange thing is, he comes across as naturally tory, parents sometimes vote conservatives aswell? He believes voting for any other party is a wasted vote as they won’t get in. The logic made my brain hurt. :S
Seems people are still taken in by what Labour says. I am no tory and he is no labour supporter. These are strange times ;)!
Just voted Jury team in a postal vote, even if they are just like all the other barstewards.
If Brown does get toppled within the next few days, will he be the first PM who never led his party at an election or has someone else suffered that ignominy?
Mike, given the kind of dodgy polls Com(edy) Res(ults) are producing.
What are the chances them of getting blacklisted by the BPC?
15
Give us a hint,did it say something about not ‘winning here’?
Looking at the 2004 Euro results, Labour achieved 13.7% in South East region (4th place). Must be a good chance of <10%, and 5th place behind Greens. I speculated on this on the previous thread, but the numbers look to support my speculation.
Anybody see Labours election broadcast? It was that one with the punch bags and the ludicrous claims about David Cameron. Anyway, this time, Eddie Izzard turned up at the end (minus the frock and make-up) That didn’t happen the last time it was broadcast, so I would guess someone decided it was too negative first time around?
17 he would officially be the most rubbish PM ever.
7 - GM is 60% owned by the US taxpayer, 12.5% by the Canadian taxpayer, 17.5% by the UAW, and 10% by the GM bondholders.
Chrysler may be out of Chapter 11 this week, and GM is aiming for the same fast track.
$50 billion should about do it on present estimates.
The UAW got a much better deal than the bondholders did. They also got the government to stipulate that the new GM - “newco’ in the current parlance - would not be able to import any more ‘fuel efficient’ (read:small) cars than it does now.
Translation - it would have to retool North American plants at significant extra expense.
All GM plants will continue to be union plants with the UAW.
Toyota, Honda etc who built plants in the South are mainly non-union.
Companies who go through Chapter 11 have a high recidivism rate - I don’t have the exact percentage at present.
Martin Day
Why refer to Johnson as the ‘nations favourite postman’?
It’s been decades since Johnson actually worked as a postman and I bet he was one of the lazy ones who inconvenienced the country by always wanting to go on strike.
17. Chamberlain was PM in 1937, but did not face a General Election due to wartime postponment.
21, and what did he say?
“Ignore the ruined economy and the fact we’re led by a friendless insane psychopath, I’m famous so throw your vote after the worst government since the dawn of time” perhaps?
25, Chamberlain also knew when to quit.
21 Still very old hat - beat up on the Tories and parade a celebrity.
7- Leyland was chump change compared to this (plus, nobody on this side of the Atlantic knows Leyland from the man on the moon…)!
From Obama’s perspective, a bailout for GM was essential from a political perspective, regardless of sound economic policy considerations. Unions are the largest contributors, by far, to the Democratic coffers and so Obama could not permit them to be sacrificed. Instead, he did as much as he could to craft a settlement that would advantage the unions to the disadvantage of secured bondholders, shareholders, and other creditors, in contravention of bankruptcy law provisions.
Result: GM will be effectively run by the unions via their Democratic pawns in Washington, with taxpayer money propping up the whole rotten structure as long as possible. It’s a nifty conduit, really: taxpayer money to GM, GM money to unions, union money to Democrats.
24. It is a term of ridicule!
Personally i think Johnson is a sound bloke but a potential PM: No chance!
19 No comment
22 er he IS the most rubbish PM ever!!
FPT - “It is true that Jindal and Palin will be the obvious choices. But there has to be at least ONE ‘moderate’ candidate. Crist is out, Republicans everywhere hate him. ”
For obvious reasons both Palin or Jindal are candidates that Democrats would be delighted to face, Pawlenty. although more moderate, is a bit bland overall though.
Someone like Crist would be better and so would Ridge; for that to happen Republicans would have to get over their ‘Culture Wars’ problem though and, as they are looking like a party even more in the image of Limbaugh, it may take another election or two until they get the message.
So - Republican 2012 = Michael Foot style candidate - at the moment I’d say Jindal.
29. S & S - I should imagine that the effective nationalisation of GM makes the Obama green agenda more likely!
23. Tim B
Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
The reason GM are bankrupt is that they produce crap cars and pay themselves too much to do it.
Can’t see that changing so continuing failure - American Leyland for the 2010s.
Thats it for the PEB’s anyway, isn’t it? We don’t get PEB’s the night before an election do we?
If I write a phoney leaflet, use their logo, make it look like my opponent’s and have a tiny imprint on the back, am i breaking election law?
25. Chamberlain would have won a general election in 1939 or 1940 but for the inconvenient Mr Hitler.
36
Thank goodness, I have never thought much of PEB’s from any party, I winder what the viewing figures are? Do any of them really make a difference?
36 - no so here’s mine.
Vote Conservative for freedom!
37, I take it you’ve found the Tories or Lib Dems doing that?
It’s certainly immoral.
If my flatmate is like most people who does not particularly follow politics and only gets snippets from the ‘neutral’ BBC and he personally has always voted tory is now is thinking of voting labour just because he believed the Labour election broadcast,
maybe getting party activists going round the houses is still a very important tool securing votes???
39 wonder
28 - we got a different version ending with a smiling Gordon Brown - obviously a vote winner.
36 - that is correct. No more PEB’s after today.
Crikey ch4 quotes that shit Independent poll!
I suppose they do it for balance!
40. I thought you’d crossed the floor into the UKIP camp now Aveit?
Ref Jonathan @ 15
I’d probably be able to help but I’d need to see a scan / PDF to know for sure
Good evening.
Sorry if someone already posted.
“What Jacqui Smith’s departure means
(…)As one Labour backbencher observed today: “This looks like the first wave before a tsunami of resignations.” And the fallout for Gordon Brown could be disastrous – even terminal.
(…)
If, as many now expect, there is a run of other Cabinet resignations, perhaps headed by Chancellor Alistair Darling, the pressure on Brown will be intense and the reshuffle will lose any positive impact it might otherwise have had.
(…)
At the moment, the Prime Minister is making it abundantly clear he intends to stay in No 10 and take Labour to the next election. But those already plotting to oust him before then might suddenly find their hand strengthened. One told the Mole that all they need is a Cabinet minister, or even former Cabinet minister, to join their cause to blast Brown out of office.”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/48226,news,the-mole-what-jacqui-smiths-departure-resigns-means-brown
37 - Why not simply submit the relevant leaflet to the electoral commission and get them to investigate?
46 no I’m back now!!!!
There was much rejoicing in the Tory camp on here last night about this!
He’s coming home
He’s coming home
He’s coming
Ave it’s coming home!!!
46. Ave It may vote Tory?
At least Cameron is doing stuff about dodgy expenses! Do you remeber farage and the UKIP dodgy expenses! Shocking.
The Tories realistically are the only ones who can provide change.
50 - 30 minutes of hurt?
Edeyrnion
How old is your flatmate?
I doubt many people under the age of 40 could be convinced that things were economically worse in 1990 than they are now.
34- It certainly means that Obama will be able to impose his terms on GM as if he were the CEO, although he will be running things more in Wizard of Oz style since he wants everyone to believe he has nothing to do with this. Result: we should be seeing green Trabants rolling off the assembly lines in a few years. Can protectionism and abrogation of WTO/GATT obligations be far off, as people refuse to do their patriotic duty by buying government cars?
Our Great Leader, captain of the Cabinet Titanic has hit an iceberg today.
Sink you b*gger!
Gibson banned from standing for Labour - plus the others who have already announced they are standing down.
Now if the star chamber views their activity as bad enough to ban them then why not a by-election now for each of their seats too rather than another year of snouting…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8080154.stm
Shame about Gibson, he was one of the most active anti-GB MP’s too….
51 i thought about ukip just for one day, just for the euros.
Remember its just like a big by election!
Nick P - was the Channel 4 piece on the Notts elections filmed in Kimberley? Looked like it to me.
Anyway, Boffin-bloke reckoned Labour will come third behind the LibDems in Notts.
Ave it
Pheww. You’re back.
Couldn’t afford to lose your wit to a bunch of fruitcakes and loons.
Was it The Sun wot did it?
50. I’m relieved.
54. “Green Trabants”
Sounds like Gordon would like some of that! Though the way Brown runs the econmy i think ricshaws (Passenger cycles aremore likely!!!)
C4 News reminding viewers about brown’s incompetence on invitation for HMQ, and mishandling of veterans’ expenses.
59 TY!
No - I realise now that it would be wrong from me to move from the RIGHTFUL PARTY even in a by election!
37 Without seeing the leaflet with a copy of the regulations the answer is “maybe” - its worth complaining about IMHO.
I was surprised to receive a new news sheet today called Wiltshire Mail but it’s pretty boring, all about a Lib Dem MP and his mate who hopes to be an MEP.
49. All the contact details are on the EC site. Very handy when MPs are claiming to know what is going on with postal votes.
S&S
All it needs now is for Ford to produce a popular range of cars for the 1970s British Leyland analogy to be complete.
Remember though that the biggest swings to the Conservatives in 1979 occured in car factory constituencies.
Republican gain Michigan 2016!
Chamberlain must be a good candidate for the least successful PM ever since by his own standards he wanted to avoid war but ended up declaring it.
Munich is a millstone as well but, trying to be fair, he inherited a country totally unprepared for war. The intervening period did give us more time to rearm. The question is if Britain and France had stood up to Germany over Czechoslovakia we may have avoided war altogether.
Brown coming second to that is no great shakes and he too inherited a difficult economic situation from … ohhh , himself.
53 A.N.Richard.
He is 25, further I can still find quite a number of pro-labour supporters still keen on even Brown lol in university. Labour speakers are still drawing decent crowds on York Campus e.g. David Blunkett who I can’t stand
6 - Jonathan, perhaps you’d like to upload that leaflet to this website
http://www.thestraightchoice.org/
35. The big mistake with BL was that after it went broke in 1974, the government tried to keep the whole rotten business going. There was an economic need to do so as over a million jobs depended on the company but also there was a political imperative to save Labour in the Midlands marginals. BL had 3 businesses, Austin-Morris the volume car business was responsible for such abominations as the Allegro, Marina and Maxi and the crippling losses which needed massive investment for new products, the Specialist Car business, Jaguar, Rover and Triumph which had a strong but ageing product range and needed new investment to renew it’s products and the Truck and Bus Unit, ditto. There were 2 options, massive investment to renew the product range and the factories or shut down Austin-Morris and concentrate on the specialist and commercial businesses. In the end the government did neither, the unprofitable parts were retained but the government did not fund the investment so a number of car projects that could have turned the company around were either cancelled or delayed for years. The Austin Maestro should have been released in 1976/77 but because of the lack of investment it wasn’t released until 1983 with the result that what could have been a radical ground breaking car was hopelessly outdated! I just hope GM doesn’t suffer the same fate.
For more info about BL check out this website below, it has some good articles about the political dimension of BL’s history;
http://www.aronline.co.uk/
67. At least Chamberlain had the guts to do the necessary eventually. Gordon, on the other hand, would have set up a review to report sometime in 1942.
56. scrapheap, Well he had been shouted at in supermarkets
Whilst he may have given the taxpayer bad value - I wish my dad would buy a property then sell it to me at half the market price!
In some ways i like the fact that his claim helped his family onto the housing ladder - it is ’sort of Socialist’, so at least he did it within his principles!
It sounds odd coming from me but he did not benifit that much but his kids did. It is still wrong but i don’t find it as offensive as some claims that Labour MPs have done!
66- One of the interesting little parlor games at times like this is to attempt to divine which currently Democratic states will tilt to the GOP when they have their next successful presidential candidate (and when their fortunes begin to rise again in general); will it be the same states that recently drifted away from them, or will new dynamics cause unexpected states to drift their way? Michigan is certainly one early possible candidate, since it is currently going through the most traumatic “change” that it could ever “hope” to see!
Comres had better hope they are right about the election as if not they have had it as a serious pollster.
68. Show your mate the GDP, government debt and industrial output figures of 1990/1 and 2008/9, I suspect he wont be pleased that he’s been lied to.
I strongly doubt that Labour is going to get much of the student vote this year. It certainly wont get many who graduate this year to vote for them next year.
71. b, I don’t suppose hecklers shouted “war criminal” at Chamberlain either!
Eddie Izzard wraps up the cross dressing straight guy vote for Labour.
67, I thought we were in no shape for war then, and Hitler deliberately went into Czechoslovakia to try and provoke us into one?
77, anywhere I can see this masterpiece?
42. It’s not that surprising that some people change their minds as to who to vote for immediately after watching a PEB. The effect of the broadcast will be most powerful then, so if no-one was so affected, the broadcasts would be pointless.
*changes hat*
Then again, I agree it’s bizarre that anyone pays attention to those things. Bizarre that people even watch them, to be honest.
Channel 4 News tonight has basically been ‘The Bash Brown Broadcast’.
29 & 35 - Obama has already fired the previous CEO, Rick Waggoner.
GM got into trouble because it acted and staffed up as if it had over 50% of the us auto market when it had only a quarter.
Its corporate culture - the opposite of Ford - was that it grew by acquisition and did not do well at merging them into the company, and by the 60s, 70s and 80s you had four divisions, Chevrolet, Pontiac, Oldsmobile and Buick selling essentially the same car with bodies and engines made in separate plants. There was a huge lawsuit in the early 80s when people with Oldsmobiles found that the engine said ‘chevrolet’.
Then there was of course the ‘GM is too big to fail’ culture. Bad management and appallingly bad union contracts (lots of blame to go round on both sides) got them to where they are today.
A single stunning fact - for every current GM worker, there are TEN retired workers with pensions and health benefits, amounting to a cost of about $2k on each vehicle GM sold. As they make much less than that per sale, this has been a slow motion train wreck for 2 decades.
By the way the Vauxhall Carlton of about 5 years ago was sold over here as a Cadillac.
The odds are against the new GM making it successfully, but we can always hope.
Ford - which has turned down any government money - has announced that it will increase production by 10% - that’s the second production increase they have announced this month.
I fancy one of those new F-150 trucks
70. Though i was born in 1976 - those shit cars the Allegro, Marina and Maxi are still imprinted on my mind! I rather think that Mark Senior if he could afford a car or could drive would have one!
That period of time for the economy was a joke!
66. “All it needs now is for Ford to produce a popular range of cars for the 1970s British Leyland analogy to be complete.”
No substitute for the quartic steering wheel. http://www.aronline.co.uk/index.htm?ado67storyf.htm
80 - A rather long PEB against Gordon Brown on behalf on the General Public.
82. Reminds me of the classic joke:
Hear about the man who made love to a princess?
He got his d!ck stuck in the exhaust pipe!
77 I don’t know about you but I am sick of celebs who are mega rich and/or spend most of their time out of the country, telling me to vote Labour.
82 Somebody informed me recently - unbid, I hasten to add - that there are less than 500 Morris Marinas left running.
I would imagine even fewer Allegros and Maxis.
77 Eddie Izzard - what a bloody voter turn-off.
Labour appears completely fixated by its middle-aged luvvies.
- and on a purely sociological note, Pontiac, Cadillac and Chevrolet were all named after Indian tribes.
I remember coming over from England in the 60s on vacations and seeing all the TV ads with the song - “See the USA in your Chevrolet - America is asking you to call”.
I remember my first Cadillac - a Coupe de Ville with a 500 cubic inch (8.2 liter) engine). I loved that car….sigh…sigh…
Sorry - just being dragged down memory drain here….
Sorry - got to say this, how nice to have someone in the No. 1 sport actually making a contributi0n.
87 - Good!
They used to call the Austin Allegro (with the square wheel) the All Aggro.
63. Welcome home from your manoeurvres.
82 I delivered a Tory pledge letter to a Mr M Senior today.
Can’t be the same M Senior because he looked under 75.
86 The Scots don’t seem to mind Connery telling them to go for independence from a golf course in Marbella.
82. I was born in 1974 and I too can remember all those cars! What I would say in their defence was that the Allegro and the Maxi actually had good basic designs but they were let down by appalling build quality. The Marina on the other hand was simply a pile of cr@p!
82
He’s in worthing - so probably not…
91. That is actually true! But quite perversely it makes them more valuable today than they ever where!
92 - I do wish they would pension Sean Connery off, I for one would be glad to see him enjoy his retirement where ever he lives. Though I do pay tribute to him for all his charitable work he does in Edinburgh.
69 Here’s the iffy leaflet.
http://www.thestraightchoice.org/leaflet.php?q=379
Classic LibDemmery, but quite close to the line to use the Labour Rose like that. Any opinions.
The imprint is 1.2mm high on the back
I failed my first driving test in a Maxi.
* * * BETTING POST * * *The swing to a 2009 election continues. I have just placed small amounts of money on a 2010 election at 1.63 (5/8). Substantial sums are available at 1.5 (1/2). Meanwhile, you can still get 5/2 on a 2009 election at Ladbrokes.
97 - Misuse of a trademark, I’m sure.
87, 91
My first car was a Maxi, I got it up to a goodly speed on one occasion, it felt like Scotty would pop up at any moment and tell me ’she’s gonna fly apart cap’n’
Ended up scrapping it when I lost the petrol cap and realised the only reason my arse wasn’t scraping the road was some string and chewing gum acting as weld on the welding.
97 - Thanks for that, whilst i’m no electoral legal expert, I have to say, that leaflet is very dodgy. Very naughty by the Lib Dems.
97 - The leaflet isn’t going to fool anyone except the terminally dim, the bar chart is, however, depressingly inaccurate.
I do wish that certain lib dems didn’t go down this route though, there is so much more to say as to why people should vote lib dem than this. It’s the sort of leaflet that would turn me off and would have me checking out other parties.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1YtLMrPTD0
That’s the Izzard version, he’s in from about 2 minutes.
I see he’s persuaded that we can afford to spend more despite the highest budget deficit in the world (80% of which is structural) and a trillion pounds of debt. Methinks Mister Izzard is better at being witty than being economically literate.
97 - If I saw it from a distance I would have thought it was a Labour leaflet. Naughty.
87. Cars have personality, and if the Austins had the personality of their makers they’d go on strike every month or two..wait, many of them did.
92. I don’t mind him as a chap - it’s he is not in the best position to be an advert.
91- The fact that GM will be run, for all intents and purposes, by politicians, does not enhance my faith in their viability. Already, the list of dealerships that were shut down as part of the restructuring is heavily populated with GOP financial contributors while containing almost no Democratic contributors. So we know that this business is going to be run politically by politicians. Actually, how can it possibly succeed (except to the extent that it continues burning up taxpayer money)?
Richard Tyndall: PVs are not counted at validation stage: the returning clerks check the covering statement to ensure they’re valid, and then shovel the votes together. All parties are permitted to send observers, and some attempt to judge how things are going by peeking at the ballot papers as they’re swept up - they won’t see them all, but they can get a reasonable sample, and if someone’s winning easily it will be obvious. One is I believe not allowed to disclose figures from specific divisions at this stage, which is one reason why I’m being vague.
I’ve no particular reason to post about it except that we share info here where it can’t do any harm. I don’t think anyone is going to vote differently on Thursday as a result, and for all I know the MPs I was talking to had incompetent or optimistic observers. Feel free to ignore - we’ll know soon enough anyway, and of course the voters on Thursday may be feeling differently to voters a week or two ago.
58: MM - don’t know, didn’t see that. It’d be an odd choice - Kimberley is a LibDem seat, though a 3-way battleground. It might be Eastwood, where the LibDems are making a big push as part of their general assault on Ashfield constituency - that would fit with the commentary. The demography political dynamics of Broxtowe and Ashfield are very different even though we’re neighbours - among other things there’s a Lib-Lab coalition in the former but the parties are at daggers drawn in the latter.
Does anyone know what sort of level of return is usual on postal votes?
I got some info today.
Go back to your constituencies… and prepare for a lynching.
Bercow’s now put out his manifesto. Highlights below. Interesting that he’s set himself term limits, obviously to answer the fear that if elected he’d be Speaker for the next 30 years:
As I think you know, I am putting myself forward for the Speakership. I therefore thought it only courteous to set out in some detail my vision for the role if I were fortunate enough to be elected.
Accordingly, I attach what might be termed a “reform prospectus” – if not a manifesto – which addresses the issues under five separate headings. I hope you find this helpful. A copy has also been sent to you in the internal post.
1. 1. The Context
The next Speaker faces an unprecedented challenge – to help clean up politics, to place Parliament at the centre of an effective democracy and to build a relationship of mutual respect with the electorate.
2. 2. My Own Candidature
I have a track record of political independence, pursue unfashionable but important causes on a non-partisan basis, and can demonstrate competence in chairing and communicating alike.
3. Allowances and Expenses
We must accept external advice on a new allowances’ system, ensure that the majority of MPs who have to live in two places are able to do so and redouble our efforts to make Parliament more representative of the country we serve.
4. Putting Parliament First
We need greater independence for Parliament from the executive; we need enhanced scrutiny both of policy and of legislation; we need better use of time and more opportunities for backbenchers to challenge the government.
5. Speaker as Ambassador
The next Speaker has to be a Speaker and a Listener, explaining the role of the House and the work of individual Members, but also listening to and, as appropriate, assimilating the views of the public.
This is no time for interim measures or party manoeuvring for future advantage. Indeed, the House needs to elect a Speaker who has a mandate to take Parliament forward in the critical years that lie ahead. As a matter of principle, I believe strongly that the post of Speaker should not be a job for life but an opportunity to make a difference within a reasonable period of time. If you do me the honour of electing me, I will serve for no longer than two full Parliaments and, in any event, for no more than 9 years in total. Any Speaker should be able to make a mark in that time and his or her successor should then be elected by experienced MPs in the existing Parliament before a General Election. It should not be done after a General Election, on party political grounds, by newly elected MPs who do not know the candidates.
Re first post - it would be nice too if I checked what I was saying. For sport read spot.
SallyC at 110: You mean % of PVs issued actually sent in? About 50-60% in locals, I think.
Jonathan @ 97
As you know well, the LDs will campaign right up to the edge of legal at all times.
Much as I would love to tell you the leaflet it’s actionable, I don’t think it is. Leastways I certainly wouldn’t bother in my constituency.
The test is simply whether a reasonable observer would conclude that it is a Labour leaflet when it isn’t. I don’t think he / she would.
The Labour Party may well have an argument on “passing off” or trademark / copyright infringement but I don’t think there’s an Election law offence involved, particularly if there’s a properly worded Imprint, however small.
Hope this helps
P.S. We have just forced a retraction here of what was a straightforward lie under threat of lawsuit so it is possible to get redress if you know your ground well enough.
Thanks everyone for your advise re. iffy LD leaflet.
http://www.thestraightchoice.org/leaflet.php?q=379
I am going to follow it up. People really shouldn’t do this. So you have to complain to stop them. They might think twice next time.
A good rule in politics: if you’ve got nothing to say - say nothing.
110 - it would depend on the make up of the seat - if there was a lot of elderly then there might be a higher postal vote. Also would depends if any of the parties try to get their known supporters to vote by post.
112- I’m sure that if you had been the current Speaker, Nick, the Parliament would not have endured all the indignities it has suffered during and due to the reign of the current occupant of the position.
112 It seems perfectly clear that the Labour Party, easily whipped section, are pulling out the stops for him.
Obviously the desire to play party political trumps is more important than the need to find a Speaker voted for by both sides of the House.
The smell of scorched earth and bitterness makes the nostril sting.
114 I did mean that. Thanks.
Nick P,
Here we get about a 70% return on our PVs.
BTW, we are told there is no point going to the box validation on Thursday night as the votes are all going to be counted face down. Apparently because European elections are still ongoing we are not allowed any chance to make a judgement on a result.
With no chance of straw polling there’s not much point in turning up.
Miliband stating he does not want to be moved from the FCO.
Brown is losing control badly. The wheels are coming off.
That leaflet reminds me of the Lib Dem eve of poll leaflet round here in the Council elections in 2006 or, as they called it, “Southwark Labour News”.
Following my post yesterday about Cameroon balloons, have received an election pamphlet through the door from the Tories.
Cammo is plastered all over it!
118 - Lol, I thought that Nick was saying he was standing as well. That’s Bercow’s manifesto!
85. Sandy Rentool
Sounds like he should be called rusty!
To the others! My childhood involved my folks owning two Austin Allegro, my mum got a metro in about 1984 and it never broke down in the first 6 years! The Allegro was a pile of shit!
In the early 1980’s i lived in Harpenden and the Allegro let my mum down once to often! A bloke who lived up the road offered to take my brother and i to school in a porsche but my mum refused because she wanted to make sure we arrived their at school with her - code for even then she was worried about kiddie fiddlers!
When is the last time the cabinet descended into open posturing 2 days before a nationwide election?
89 - Tim B (not the other one) s
“- and on a purely sociological note, Pontiac, Cadillac and Chevrolet were all named after Indian tribes.”
Wrong.
The Cadillac automobile was named after the 17th-century French explorer Antoine Laumet de la Mothe, Sieur de Cadillac, who founded Detroit in 1701. (incidentally the original Cadillac is a small French town near Bordeaux)
108 - you are right. Also many closing Chrysler dealerships were GOP contributors. I know a couple of each in the north Metro Atlanta area where I am.
Myself I doubt GM can make it. They have been too awful for much too long. A case in point - gasoline was almost $5 a gallon. What does GM do? They launch a new SUV, available as the Chevrolet Tahoe or Suburban(I think - I’m not an expert on GM models) and GMC Yukon or Cadillac Escalade (all the same vehicle with different trim levels) which gets 14mpg.
Obama shouts from the housetops that the company will be free of political interference, but as soon as they want to close a plant, discontinue a line, or open a new plant (particularly if - heaven forbid - it was in a right to work state which was non-union) all hell would break loose.
Marcia. George.
TY
We are in an area with low local Labour activity and they do a lot of telephone canvassing. They relied heavily on postal votes at the last GE so it is interesting to see the levels. We also have postal out in the villages but not to the same degree. We have locals aswell as Euros.
Doesn’t sound like a high turnout on our postal votes in these here parts.
125- I know, but I would love to see Nick go for it! Nick, what do you have to lose?
128 - yep - you got me on that. I checked and you are correct. He spent a lot of time with the Ottawas and Hurons though. Brain fart, obviously
Poster/Placard round-up - UKIP in evidence, Lib Dems and Conservative seen in reasonable numbers. I am noticing a LOT more Green Party placards than is usual.
As of now I have still not seen a single Labour placard or poster anywhere.
The last sentence is the only relevant bit - its seriously like they have given up and gone home, no evidence of them at all, anywhere.
Seriously i dont know why Nick Palmer does not put himself for speaker! I think he would be good in the job and it may mean an uncontested Broxtowe for him! The women (Tory) up against him could find a Tory safe seat just now so nobody would be adversly affected!
I would actively campain for an NP speakership online! I think he would be ‘fair’ and work for the interest of parliament rather than Labour - Why do i say this? He is f*cked anyway given the polls but would want to prove himself as a good speaker. NP even to his partisan detractors is a good MP - even though he is F*cked as a Labour one! My feeling is he is a genuine parliamentarian - makes a difference compared to some of the cockends in the Palace of westminister.
Gordon Browns downfall
The Finale
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEr5fGPYxZo&annotation_id=annotation_329703&feature=iv
ComRes has published the details from today’s Green Party poll. Here are the Scottish cross-breaks (usual caveats apply).
It shows the Scottish Green Party at (ahem) 18%!
Euro v.i.
(+/- change from Euro 2004)
SNP 29% (+9)
Lab 24% (-2)
Grn 18% (+11)
Con 12% (-6)
LD 9% (-4)
Christian 2% (n/c)
Ind 2% (+2)
BNP 0% (-2)
UKIP 0% (-7)
oth 3%
This compares with the Populus/Times cross-breaks, which also had the Scottish Greens in 3rd spot:
Euro v.i.
(+/- change from Euro 2004)
SNP 36% (+16)
Lab 25% (-1)
Grn 11% (+4)
LD 10% (-3)
Con 8% (-10)
BNP 5% (+3)
UKIP 5% (-2)
The U.S. dollar is becoming a joke among the Chinese. Not a good sign:
“”We believe in a strong dollar,” Geithner said in a question-and-answer session after a speech to students at Peking University.
A major goal of Geithner’s maiden visit to China as Treasury secretary is to allay Beijing’s concerns that Washington’s mushrooming budget deficit and ultra-loose monetary policy will undermine both the dollar and U.S. bonds. China is the biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasury bonds.
“Chinese financial assets are very safe,” Geithner said. His response drew laughter from the audience.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK12423320090601?rpc=44
131 “go for it! Nick, what do you have to lose?”
Opposition candidates!
132- Tim B
I must admit that I would not know that if I had not lived a few years back near Cadillac, France.
134 Well said, Martin.
He is unlikely to be proposed and may not even want it, but that doesn’t detract from the substance of your post.
136 - Personally i’m surprised that ComRes’ actions in changing their methodology for a party commissioned poll isn’t in breach of some BPC rule. It certainly should be!
O/T on cars. Walking to the village shop this evening I heard an unusual engine sound from a car behind me, quiet but different, a beautiful open topped yellow Rolls Royce Silver Ghost, probably early/mid 1920’s wafted past. Coming back from the shop another yellow open topped car passed, not such an attractive engine noise (Fiat 500 cc) but an amazing little car - apparently its a right hand drive Fiat Vignale Garmine, which looks like Noddy and Big Ears should be sitting in it.
Oh to be an MP and be able to misuse my expenses to buy either of them……
135, old video. Someone should make a new one. There’s plenty of scope. Tory piss-taking claims “It is absolutely essential for my work as an MP that my moat be periodically widened so that I remain impervious to Viking raids”, Labour profiteering off the housing market, Nick Clegg bragging about enjoying the MEP expenses, Labour deciding they’re all going to resign etc etc etc.
129- It’s not just Obama, but also Congress. There are a lot of Democrats in Washington who are beholden to the unions in general, and the UAW in particular. They will risk being punished severely by the unions if union interests in Government Motors are not protected. Washington will have its fingerprints all over GM before this is over.
Forgot to give the ComRes/Green Party link:
http://www.comres.co.uk/resources/7/Green%20Party%20Poll%20Results%20June09.pdf
Does anyone have any information regarding likely turnout for the Euro’s, from any polls or postal vote returns?
Does anyone have any information regarding likely turnout for the Euro’s, from any polls or postal vote returns?
Does anyone have any information regarding likely turnout for the Euro’s, from any polls or postal vote returns?
144- S and S
This question of the role of unions in the new GM is one of the very rare angles on which the Washington Post constantly expresses its disagreement with Obama.
I must say that I don’t understand how the spoliation of bondholders to benefit a sympathetic union, on order of the government hasn’t provoked more outrage.
145 - Do those tables suggest that the Greens were being prompted before the LibDems as well?
I think Mike should officially blacklist ComRes until they clean their act up!
141 I am not sure they change their methodology so much as their weighting. I know that sounds the same but it isn’t. They use the last few polls as a base for their calculations and obviously that changes the weighting each time.
136 - based on rumours seen at PV verification - neither accurate and don’t prod, I don’t intend telling you as this is a betting site and it would be improper to give inside info.
148 Local and Euro postal voting here is very high, and I mean very high.
99. I’m surprised that the money is shifting to a 2009 election. Assuming that Gordon resigns soon after the Euro elections (which I doubt) then there will be a contest for the leadership of the Labour party. This will take months, which means that it won’t be over until soon before the party conference in September. Who ever wins is going to need that conference to try and pull the party back together and get some air time. Assuming that they declare just after conference season then that makes the election itself in October. This is only 7-8 months from the last possible date, we are already in injury time for this parliament so they are going to get no credit for going early and if they go in winter it will be even harder to get the notoriously coach potato Labour vote off its arse and down the polling booth. Looks like a good time to load up with some more 2010.
81 et al, GM sounds like the new British Leyland. A politician-run company is bound to fail.
I think, in any case, there’s probably only room for one big US-owned car producer, and that’s probably going to be Ford.
They might be right, Lib Dems fifth then!!!
Similar vote to last time.
It is all very chaotic.
Nobody appears to have polled on the County elections.
All the signs here are that Labour are down, rumour has it in one ward they have held for seemingly ever, it is now either the Cons or Lib Dems who will take it.
153. The vote factories cranking up again?
150 - agreed. They’re being far to irregular and the way they keep fiddling about with their weightings is poor practice in my opionion.
149 And so self-defeating, in the long run. A GM that was run along commercial lines might have a future. A GM that’s run to benefit a trade union, and political vested interests is bound to fail.
155- market capitalism hardly comes out of this crisis smelling of roses Mr Fear.
Like it or lump it we are all state interventionists now!
148 152 No so round here. Rumour here is low.
103…voting LD is opting out from the real world of politics.
144 - agree completely. My ‘all hell would break loose” comment was intended to show that the democrats would rise up in righteous indignation en masse. (obviously it was less than 100% successful)
There is a dependency culture with the unions and democrats very much like the UK and Labour, although not quite as bad as the UK.
I remember distinctly watching the 1980 democratic convention on CBS, when Cronkite was still doing it. They had computerised info for the first time, and he commented that he had not realized how many of the delegates were public sector people and trade unionists, and how this did not bode well for the future. It’s only got worse since then.
149- The outrage will be expressed by lenders who will shy away from risky lending situations, or demand a higher rate of interest. This will have a drag of unknown impact upon the economy from here forward. That in itself is quite a price to pay for this political payoff to the UAW.
But more specifically on your question, this is the sort of economics that the public will not follow unless it is explained to them by the media. And, well, you can guess why that isn’t happening…
O/T French politics
People on here complaining about the rise of the BNP can always take comfort in that, at least, as oppposed to France, there isn’t an openly anti-semitic party running for office in the UK Euro election…
The “liste anti-sioniste” (no translation necessary) runs under the motto: “For a Europe freed from censorship, communautarism, speculators and NATO”.
It is composed of mix of Pétain nostalgics, Hol***ust deniers and muslim fundamentalists.
Their last meeting’s climax was a call from his cell by jailed-for-life international terrorist Carlos…
Nick Griffin seems quite harmless in comparison!
137. How are the mighty fallen.
To all those referring to 1970s British Leyland cars;yes a lot of them were crap,but:
(The way my mates dad drove would render him banned in nanoseconds nowadays :lol:)
(a)I have elaborated at length my happy memories in mid teens (I was born in 1971) of my mate’s dad’s Morris Marina 1.8TC-the engine,gearbox and final drive of the MGB fastback were standard,and it was one wicked car
(b)I actually had driving lessons with a friend in 1992 in a 1.1 litre Austin Allegro-O.K,the thing was basic,cheap,noisy etc,but it had a lovely soft clutch,was easy to drive,and I enjoyed myself.
I guess everyone’s different!
Could Ian Gibson strike back?
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/06/could-ian-gibson-take-labour-to-court.html
154. Labour can’t have a drawn out, bitter leadershup contest, IMO. If Brown goes they will have to coronate a new leader and have an election within two or three months.
154 - The free money available earlier has gone, but there is over £1,000 available at 1.46 and 1.47 on a 2010 election on Betfair. URW gave me a betting lesson on this particular market a couple of weeks ago. He recapped this morning:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/06/02/what-if-labours-share-is-worse-than-the-worst-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1086927
157 - it it called Quantative voting.
164 - yes, bondholders will look at this imbroglio and learn the lesson. There were $27 billion of bonds, and they got $0.5 billion of stock in the new company.
It is a complex financial story. If you have the stomach, go and look at http://www.gmreinvention.com
The other thing is Obama’s auto task force - most of them have given no interviews to anyone about what they do etc. They are unelected and responsible to nobody except Obama.
160 When it comes to making money out of producing cars, we have innumerable examples of how disastrous State-control has been. But that won’t stop governments trying all over again.
165 A party for Rod Crosby?
168. At the very least he could leave Parliament now and force Labour to have a by election they don’t want. What kind of majority does Gibson have?
I see various conservatives on here are repeating the Republican talking point that the dealerships closed down are excessively Republican leaning. They don’t think that maybe it should be compared with a control group of the rest of dealerships, which have also turned out to be… Republican leaning. Still, it doesn’t surprise me the GOP operatives aren’t capable of understanding logical testing. Their anti-science credentials are evident in their views on biology, climatology, geology…
112: Almost reasonable, but ruined by the lack of the word “transparent”. Back to the drawing board, Mr. Bercow !
150. That cores poll was cr@p! Whilst the independent got to right a negative about Cameron - I do not detect its results round here or anywhere else! I may post alot on here and sometimes it may be trivia! My feeling is no collase in tory ratings!
Indeed Comres has a stong smell of guff! It may well help the Tories as folk will turn out for them if they think they are in trouble in the euro’s!
174, 5,500 or thereabouts, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Gibson_(politician).
Given present circumstances, that could be easily overturned.
173. Jobs, unions and national pride will make the smartest government piss away billions (tens?) of dollars.
If Brown waits for Monday to reshuffle, he’s toast.
His only chance is to tie in the cabinet to the reshuffle before the results are known on Sunday- particularly the Postman, Millipede and the Harbinger of Doom.
Give them good enough jobs for the next 12 months that they would rather have 12 months of that and then lose the GE, than a shot at the leadership and lose the GE much more quickly. I don’t believe any of them can think they can take the leadership and turn this thing around sufficiently to win.
If he waits until the results are known, then the momentuum will be unstoppable (unless the view of the bunker really is that it won’t be carnage in the locals and Euro’s - surely they can’t be *that* deluded can they?)
Conservatives have at least a 2 term government, and in all probability longer.
177. Indeed. That would be very winnable in a by election.
174 Norwich North is about target 170 for the Tories - majority of 6900 - boundary changes not great for the Tories, Lib Dems start from a low third
By-Election would be a Tory walkover, it will be close at the GE
167 - I had an MGB GT and it was great fun. Had a Lotus Elan too, but every time you stopped at the lights you had to tune the damned thing again.
Used my Gunson glass top spark plug many many times on it!
On the other hand my first car was a 66 mini - every time it rained and a truck passed me on the motorway the bloody thing would conk out.
I also had an MG 1300. Talk about GM and parallel lines - there was the Austin 1100, the Morris 1100, and the MG 1100 (the 1300 came along later). It was not an unusual sight to see one with Austin on the front and Morris on the back.
169 - Coronate?
Money for Alan Johnson in the Betfair next PM market
Ave it EURO Poll*
—————-
Con 40%
UKIP 22%
Lab 15%
LDs 10%
BNP 7%
Others 6%
* sample size 0, margin of error loads
159. That is precisely the mistake that happened at BL from 1974-1978! Tony Benn’s primary vision for the company was that it was to be a showpiece for his idea of “industrial democracy,” basically letting the workers do whatever they wanted to like deciding if they were going to bother showing up for work or not! The fatal damage to BL was done between 1974 and 1978 when they lost something like half of their market share due to rampant strikes and non existent quality control. I t was than that Eric Varley and Jim Callaghan realized that they had to put the company back on to a commercial basis and brought in Michael Edwardes to get the company into shape. Had a firmer hand been taken in 1974 then there still might be a sizeable indigenous UK motor company around today.
178
And bankers beat them all.
I agree about general comments on unions but the GOP was responsible for the lack of effective US bank regulation and most of the bankers were GOP supporters..
So pissing all over Obama for GM is a shame..
GM of course should be put down..
183. As in put forward another leader unopposed, as they did with Brown and as the Tories did with Michael Howard after knifing IDS.
172- when you are as gifted as Obama who cares about accountability?
Listening to Obama is akin to watching Federer, or Barcelona.
185 :D!!!!!
Better than Com Res.
Cheaper too.
PB’s first poll!
And the mopping up continues:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431621/MPs-expenses-Bob-Ainsworths-repairs-cost-the-taxpayer-5925.html
Puffed-Up Arthur Daley Impersonator Gerald Warner has written a rather anti-Dave little piece in his Telegraph Blog - mixed reception from his handful of respondants.
151 - No Sally, they changed the methodology. The Green Euro Poll had no past vote weighting.
182 The full set of the ‘1100 series’ was Austin,Morris,MG ,Wolsley,Riley (?) and Vanden Plas,as I recall
156. dave (s)
“All the signs here are that Labour are down, rumour has it in one ward they have held for seemingly ever, it is now either the Cons or Lib Dems who will take it.”
What part of the country are you in? And can you say which ward you are referring to?
If an MP quit, now, what would compel them to return any money claimed against the spirit of the rules, or tax avoided?
We don’t have retrospective legislation in this country, so if an MP would have to repay over, say, £100000 (which may just be the case with Ian Gibson) they may be better off going now. Yes, they forego one year’s salary and the resettlement payment - but they would also get first-mover credit for “at least he went now” - and put tremendous pressure on other MPs who have said they are stepping down at the next election.
Of course, Our Glorious Leader’s “Independent Autonomous Great Committee For Decisive Action While The Tories Would Do Nothing” could force paybacks which fell strictly outside the rules.
NPMP- Nick,thank you for the insights into the postal voting process. But then NuLabour have always been the masters of this vote delivery system.
Two random thoughts
I have been for a 5 mile run around lots of housing estates tonight, and in common with my experience everywhere else here, I have not seen ONE SINGLE poster for any party. We have locals and Euros of course. The apathy is staggering, I am jealous of all these posters!
I looked up Broxtowe on election maps out of idle curiosity, and discovered it is not as I assumed yet another random northern town beginning with “B” (Bury, Bolton, Bradford, Burnley, Blackpool, Barnsley, Blackburn, Burton, Buxton, Bolsover, really the list is almost endless!) but a district of some sort, with some non-B towns I have never heard of. Just thought I’d share my staggering ignorance with you
194 That is true.
122
I did post earlier in the day about refusniks, but noone picked up on it. I felt sure Milipede wouldnt vacate easily in favour of Mandleson… Thats going to be one hell of a bunfight. If Milliband refuses, Does Gordo sack him.. very dangerous…
189 Unless you listen to him try and answer a difficult question, and then its like having teeth pulled, slowly, and without anisthetic.
I seriously think he is the most overrated speaker in decades.
Cut through the treacle of the ’story’ and is he all that?
Jury’s out.
170. I don’t have any gambling budget for today anyway, good to see somebody took their money though! I’m just surprised anybody would offer it. URW is probably right that many in the media will start pushing for an early election once there is a new speaker, I doubt they will get much momentum, too many of the important players will be heading off on holiday of the issue to build up a head of steam before the Autumn, and I’m not good enough at this game yet to start trading and making a book. My worst moments when I played the spreads where when I tried that, so now I just stick my money over a selection that I think offer value and hope!
191 its a really good methodology* and generally considered better than most polls - particularly those polls that are good for labour!
* not necessarily in usa
187 “Tony Benn’s primary vision for the company was that it was to be a showpiece for his idea of “industrial democracy”
Intellectuals are the root of all evil.
It is amazing how vocal some people are about union’s political power due to campaign donations, but are silent about the (far, far larger) influence of corporate donations - and that applies to both US parties.
200 - Technically it wasn’t a change of methodology, I think, but you get what i mean.
188- Both parties were in bed with the banks, which shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone. One of the biggest Washington champions of the big banks and investment houses has long been Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). And, of course, the Dems have long leaned on the banks to loosen lending standards to “help” various Democratic constituencies.
195
My father had a sequence of about 5 Wolsley 6/110 Mark 2’s, heavy old buses, beautiful leather interiors and walnut finishes. The last one had overdrive on it, it would do about 24 mpg if you drove it carefully. The steering was terrible.
190: Did you read Obama’s book about his father, it was very disappointing.
201 well, yes, but it is Milipede don’t forget - the man who traded his spine for a banana.
Inverterbrates 1 - Brown 0, even the spineless are scoring points off him
205. And anti-intellectualism shows its ugly head. Did you ever think that idiot Texan fratboys might be just as bad?
This is a potentially highly significant development. German Govt falling out with the ECB?
Ainsworth is a pretty boring appetizer for what may be the final day.
Just some luxury decoration.
175 - Firstly I’m not a Republican, nor a conservative. I’m an ex-pat brit in Atlanta.
It is possible to make the case that as small business people, auto dealers are more likely to lean to the Republicans rather than the Democrats. It’s a free country and nothing wrong with that.
But when you combine the list of dealers closed by both Chrysler and GM with the amounts on the political contributions list, there is a strong correlation. The press here has illustrated this amply.
>> “Still, it doesn’t surprise me the GOP operatives aren’t capable of understanding logical testing. Their anti-science credentials are evident in their views on biology, climatology, geology…”
Socrates, that is beneath you, very disappointing and not worthy of further comment, so I shall refrain
199. Around Torbay there are quite a few posters. I would say that UKIP is No1, followed by the Lib-Dems, and then the Conservatives. Labour and everybody else is non-existant. Even in Exeter where Ben Bradshaw is MP I haven’t seen a single Labour poster.
189 - Like being crowned you mean? I would say there is no such verb as to coronate but it is used so often on American websites and now I see in the UK as well that I suppose that is no longer true.
Sorry for being so fussy.
206 I don’t doubt that the Republicans as much in hock to vested interests as the Democrats.
But the deal over GM makes it likely that it will be the US British Leyland.
213 alex
Wow. Merkel publicly and scathingly criticizing the ECB.
That is a very big development.
I find it hard to believe that this just for domestic political consumption. I thought she was incredibly popular there - like Cameron and Obama, far more popular than her party.
199. Barrow, Batley, Beverley, Bridlington, Brigg, Berwick, Blaydon, Boston, Blyth, Birkenhead…..
24 - Johnson ended up head of one of Britain’s biggest unions so he must have had something about him. He also has clear roots in the traditional Labour movement but also has links to New Labour, don’t forget he backed Blair’s repeal of Clause 4 which marked him as a clear moderniser amongst union bosses. He would therefore have more appeal to the centre too in a way that Brown, Balls and Harman would not, all 3 moving to appeal more to Labour’s base and more Old Labour in style.
Evening all, just back from a canvassing session. Strong positives on the door and a lot of deliberate abstentionism. One or two BNP, not a lot of anything else. In this part of Hertfordshire Labour are loathed with an absolute passion. However I suspect that the turnout will be poor.
212 He has a point though. Some of the most intelligent people have advocated some of the most stupid ideas, historically.
175- The closed dealerships who made political contributions are overwhelmingly pro-Republican, not just somewhat pro-Republican. Meanwhile, pro-Democratic dealerships miraculously went virtually untouched.
“Evidence appears to be mounting that the Obama administration has systematically targeted for closing Chrysler dealers who contributed to Republicans. What started earlier this week as mainly a rumbling on the Right side of the Blogosphere has gathered some steam today with revelations that among the dealers being shut down are a GOP congressman and closing of competitors to a dealership chain partly owned by former Clinton White House chief of staff Mack McLarty.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Furor-grows-over-partisan-car-dealer-closings-46261447.html
All coincidence, I’m sure…
209. My great grandfather had an Austin Princess in the late 50’s early 60’s and my mum at school at the time said many folk thought it was a Rolls Royce or Bentley! Austin Princess was different to the shit car in the 1970’s and 1980’s! My great grandfather had a chaffeur and several house keepers/servants! He would also be worth about 100 Million in todays money! Alas the company died after he did! I still meet folks now who worked for him 30 years ago!
195 - Wolseley, Riley …. you are right, it’s worse than I remembered!
My dad had a Riley 4/72, whatever that was, in the mid 60s. He mainly drove Rovers, the 80, the 105R and some sort of turbo / turbine engined Rover if I recall correctly.
He also had a Simca Arronde.
I shall soon be regressing into my childhood at this rate.
The Labour Party Rule Book says that if the Leader (who is ex offcio Prime Minister) becomes unavailable for whatever reason the Cabinet chooses another Leader, who becomes ex officio prime minister, until the party election procedures can be gone through. If the Party is in Opposition then the deputy Leader takes over automatically until party election procedures are gone through.
The Rule Book does throw up a potential conflict for the Head of State taking advice, particularly from the outgoing Prime Minister if he is available to give it, the view of the Cabinet, if they are at odds with the outgoing Leader, and whether he Head of State follows the Cabinet choice or her own if it is different from the Cabinet’s. Or if another member of the House seems more likely to be able to command a majority on a vote of confidence. Usually the outgoing prime minister says ’send for X’ and the Head of State does unless all the other advisors and objective circumstances make it clear that would be a waste of time. Certainly replacing Brown doesn’t require the long drawn out election procedures for the Labour party Leader, as they are in office.
My Dad had (in order) a Marina estate, a Marina salooon, an Allegro, an Ital, a Maestro, a Rover 414, and a Rover 400 series of some sort. (We used to live a mile from Longbridge…)
The best that can be said is the trend was less awful over (a very long) time. Comically he bought the last one from new with about £250 off list (”a good deal”
) and lost so much money he’s still got it 6 years on. He will probably have it forever as he can’t buy a BL/MG/Rover cr@pheap anymore.
I learnt to drive in the Maestro, the inside was surely designed by a competitor company to be as awful as possible to dissuade people from buying it, it’s the only explanation I can come up with. The A-series engine was invented in I think 1948 FFS…
190- tyson
The truth is that Obama is not a very good speaker, he tends to be long-winded and his use of clichés is very annoying…
For his last press conference we played “cliché bingo” with my wife. I won with “Main street and Wall street” and “worst economic crisis since the great depression”.
And frankly I prefer watching Federer play for four hours than listen to Obama 5 minutes…
215. And if you compared the list of dealers not closed there would also be a strong correlation with the GOP’s political contributions list. For this to be a government conspiracy, there would have to be a significantly stronger correlation of the former than the latter… and there isn’t any evidence of this. In other words, this is a conspiracy theory.
212. “Did you ever think that idiot Texan fratboys might be just as bad?”
No. Bad maybe, but no normal person in the history of the world has ever been as wrong as an intellectual.
Oak beams and all
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431621/MPs-expenses-Bob-Ainsworths-repairs-cost-the-taxpayer-5925.html
O/T
Did another gilt auction fail today?
http://tinyurl.com/giltauctioncalendar2009
Look at today’s auction. The nominal amount was £2.2bn. The amount raised was £2.0bn.
Unless I am being dense, which is very possible - I may be misunderstanding these numbers.
ken or other economic experts, your help would be much appreciated!
EDIT: It seems I am completely wrong; I am somehow misinterpreting these numbers. Apparently it was 2.3 times oversubscribed:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090602-703688.html
223.
I think it’s fair to say that many so called intellectuals are not well aquainted with real life.
What was it that a French intellectual is supposed to have said?
‘I know it works in practice but does it work in theory?’
224. This is all cherry picking of evidence. The plural of anecdote does not make data. Give me a proper statistical analysis showing that the closed dealerships were significantly more Republican than the ones left open and you will have a case. Without that, you have about as much validity as the bloke that says “smoking can’t be bad for your health, my granddad was a lifelong smoker and lived til he was 95!”
228. My first car was a Metro. I traded it in for Mini Cooper (one of the crappy factory jobs) and only then learned to appreciate just how sophisticated and advanced the Metro was!
229 -
“And frankly I prefer watching Federer play for four hours than listen to Obama 5 minutes…”
Yes, it’s all a - racket - (sorry)
By the way do you have the Gordon Brown ‘bullshit bingo’ sheet?
Trivia corner: Broxtowe is named after the Men of Broxtowe, a medieval mercenary force noted for their dogged ferocity in the face of overwhleming odds. So now you know why I like Gurkhas.
Martin Day and S&S’s support as Speaker is kind, but I think it’s an awful job - 70% listening to people droning on and trying to look interested, 29% entertaining visiting delegations, and 1% getting slagged off for dicey decisions. And you can never express a view on anything, like the Queen. Ghastly idea. SallyC - note I posted a similar extract from Beith’s manifesto earlier - I like Bercow, but I’m not really bothered who’s Speaker.
223 - The fatal flaw in all intelligent but misguided ideologues in history in that they fail to sufficiently question the core assumptions that underpin their beliefs. Usually these assumptions surround how humanity will act when left to their own devices. The most successful political philosophies have always been those that both accurately identified these core assumptions, and by and large sought to work with the human reaction rather than worked to suppress it.
Just been chatting to a fairly senior labour troll who informs me that this time last week GB was perfectly safe but now the cleavers are out for him at the most senior level in Westminster.
Possibly the Blears camp that did it or more obviously the Mandleson one.
Whatever it does not matter but the only thing that can save GB now are the polls on Thursday not being quite as bad as thought.
Brown gone by this time next week is looking odds on.
232.
Looks like Bob Ainsworth did some property flipping too.
Incidentally I’d get ready to go cold turkey. There are less than 20 MPs (Labour and Conservative) who are now still awaiting the ‘Telegraph treatment’ unless of course they have held information back?
232 Ainsworth of the car crash Newsnight interview .. Couldnt happen to a nicer bloke. The expenses claimed are staggering 4500 for fencing. Was it gold plated?
204 We don’t mention the short-lived “Ave It US polling subsidiary”*
Stick with the tried and trusted formula of “Ave It Westminster polling plc” -
“CONS WIN EVERYTHING!!!”
*may contain nuts
According to Dale, tonight’s Telegraph will be analysing Boris Johnson’s expenses.
234 Pol Pot, Radavan Karadizck, Papa Doc, Lenin, Trotsky, Ho Chi Minh, were all intellectuals.
227 - Presumably if Brown went now, the Queen would have good grounds for dissolving Parliament?
238 But Nick - as Speaker, your Parliamentary opponents melt away!
That’s got to have a certain attraction in the current climate
247
HM The Queen will do everything possible to avoid interfering, she will be enjoying the debacle too much.
246 - Of course i didn’t mention the evil bastards who fully understood the potential weaknesses within mankind and harnessed it highly successfully!
246. Gordon Brown regards himself as an intellectual.
238 - ‘i’m not really bothered who’s speaker’
is that because you dont expect to be in the Commons then anyway?
Telegraph sounds impressed again with the Govt..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/5431596/Labour-in-crisis-we-havent-seen-such-turmoil-at-the-top-for-decades.html
228. Jon C
Maestro was an alright car IIRC - my dad had a 2L Rover coope and that was alright as well in the 1990’s! Suer they went down hill in the late 1990’s and look dated now but they were alright compare to the competion! I reckon my ford focus could keep up with his coope now but that is 15 years on!
245 Habib Butt
Could Boris be ‘the big one’?
He has said and done some fairly stupid things before… But even he wouldn’t have penned the columns he has done over the last few weeks if he knew there was something dodgy in his own affairs?
247 Why do you think HM the Q didn’t want to go to France this weekend? She has other plans!!
246 So was Harold Wilson.
254 he is equal top trougher for the last 2 years and his expenses shot up after 2004 - I think there is probably a flip in there of some description.
He is one of their own - although he savaged Heffalump a bit yesterday - although remember the Telegraph didn’t really go after Julie K either and she is one of theirs - it was more death by association with her than any Telegrah input.
254 - Boris is just about the only politician who might get away with whatever it is he’s done, no matter how appalling. Quite apart from his teflon streak, he has an independent mandate, doesn’t need to seek re-election for 3 years and is beholden to no one.
229- Chris- Obama is a bloody good communicator. Top notch. Cliched or not. Adept, and deft.
Granted though I prefer to watch Federer for 4 hours. I could watch Federer for hours on end. The finest athelete I can remember. Slightly suspect temperament wise which is why that ungainly, brutish, funny lip Spanniard has got the better of him, and Murray too.
It would be fantastic to see Federer win the French. Especially more so since I backed him at 13’s before Rome. Have backed Del Potro at 107 for Wimbledon previously. A bet I am nursing well.
I bet Brown’s regretting inviting himself to the Obama/Sarkozy love-in now.
Echoes of Thatcher’s fall while being in France.
230- “WND reviewed the list of 789 closing franchises and databases of political donors and found that of dealership majority owners making contributions in the November 2008 election, less than 10 percent gifted to Democrats while 90 percent gave substantial sums to Republican candidates.
The listed franchise owners contributed at least $450,000 to Republican presidential candidates and the GOP, while only $7,970 was donated to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign and $2,200 was given to Sen. John Edwards’ campaign.
Obama received a combined total of only $450 in donations – $250 from dealer Jane Baldock in Wenatchee, Wash., and $200 from Waco, Texas, dealer Jeffrey Hunter.”
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=99325
So, $450,000 to the GOP vs. $450 to Obama, among the closed dealerships. Again, coincidence, I’m sure…
Best British car we ever had was a Humber Super Snipe.
Surely no-one thinks ComRes gave we Greens the result we wanted? That’s crazy person talk.
249 - It’s a serious point though. With less than a year of the Parliament to go, what reasons could a new Labour leader provide for delaying an election? It’s not like they’d be putting through any new legislation, other than purely political bills.
238 Nick Palmer.
How can you have someone like Bercow who has enjoyed the ACA to the maximum for the last 6 years and who has been shamed into paying £6k to HMRC because of his manipulation of the system.
He, like his prospectus is just not credible. It would be as if MPs were validating the corrupted system that caused this debacle by rewarding one of its most enthusiatic users.
Bercow standing is basically him sticking two fingers up at the electorate.
244 ‘We don’t mention the short-lived “Ave It US polling subsidiary”’
“Ave it US polling subsidiary” = Mark Senior
254. Maybe it’s not the amount of money, perhaps Boris has claimed for something even more gob-smacking than moat cleaning or a duck island? If anyone can raise that particular bar BoJo is the man for the job.
252 One of the side-Headlines in that Telegraph link is “Jacqui Smith to resign as Home Secretary.” The word “resign” is in quotation marks. They don’t need to do anything else to show that they think she is being economical with the actualite.
238- Yes, Nick, I know the tradition is to show reluctance in accepting the Speakership, but just between you and me…
258 antifrank
Boris himself might get away with it.
But he is probably the second most widely known Conservative politician.
He is high profile enough to cause serious damage to the Conservatives more generally.
Anthony not thrilled with the ComRes Euro poll
‘UPDATE: I’ve seen the tables for the poll, but they don’t help that much as they don’t show how the voting intention questions was asked, and what I’m interested in is which minor parties (if any) were prompted for. It also appears that it wasn’t past vote weighted, probably contributing to the lower level of Conservative support.’
He s comments that with a PP commissioned poll we need to see how the question was asked.
238- Nick-I was surprised and very chuffed to see you listed on the betting markets for speaker. Integrity has a place after all.
247. What 249 said. I was just saying what the Rule Book says. There’s no need for delay in choosing a new Leader and thus PM if they can get Brown to step down. There is much more discretion in the Head of State’s hands than is usually conceded though. She has to weight all the advice and the realities. Most would agree this is an unusual and fraught moment.
239. I think that’s the key. I’ve known lots of very clever leftie intellectuals over the years but they all lacked empathy and had no real clue how people are. They see them as blocks of wood that can be shaped any way they please and don’t limit themselves to only going with the grain.
Sounds like Liquid Metal Boris might need to live up to his nickname on here
Problem for Call Me Dave, he can’t sack Boris if he has been a naughty boy!
270 - I absolutely agree with that. A lot will depend what he’s done. If it comes in the category of “frankly, we’d have expected nothing else of Boris”, the Tories are safe. If it looks really bad, they have a major problem.
246 Intellectuals maybe - but only one had a spell in London as a pastry chef under the famed French Chef Escoffier….
265 - This is a general point, not aimed specifically at you jsfl, but the Conservative attempts to argue that Bercow is “corrupted” by the expenses affair is hypocritical in the extreme whilst they are insistent that Cameron has no case to answer for his expenses claims, whilst also on related matters still consistently arguing that every citizen has the right to avoid tax wherever possible. There have been lots of Conservatives “paying back” money, or paying capital gains taxes on house sales, but few are caused by genuine illegal activity or admissions of wrongdoing.
Bercow has a perfectly good backstory to his “flipping” and Conservatives are letting their obvious dislike of the man affect their judgement of his financial affairs.
The Labourgraph’s love-in with Ed Balls continues
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5430435/Ed-Balls-deserves-his-chance-at-No-11.html
So let’s assume that the elections are as the polls suggest (assuming that the tory 30% one is a rogue):
1) the men in gray suits (or gray men in suits) come to Nodrog and say it’s over. Nodrog says sod off I’m staying and getting on with the job of getting on withe the job and handling the economy evry day, and we need an experienced pair of hands to ….all fall asleep at this point..
2) the cabinet reshuffle isn’t quite the game changer that Nodrog expects, and the nation’s attention returns to the major issues of expenses, Keith Richard’s (or whichever Stone it is) 20 year old girlfriend, and that woman from the talent show.
If Nodrog is simply stubborn, difficult, unreasonable and refuses to go gently into the night, how can they remove him without damaging the party even more?
On a lighter note, did you know that “Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown” is an anagram of “One dimwit ruler, boring sporran mob”
Sorry, couldn’t help myself…
If the Telegraph is splashing on Boris, then we can only assume that they’re desperate to get him off their wage bill and are hoping he will quit the paper in disgust at his treatment.
As a non-MP, it’s also presumably debateable if his expenses were covered by the ruling on Freedom of Information.
238. Nick Palmer MP
Well - if H of C members approach you i hope you say yes!
Given some of the nonsense in the commons i can not think of anybody better to whip the buggers into shape!
Seriously i think you would make a good speaker! I can imagine you in a whig shouting order at rebels on either side! If you don’t want to wear tights, then make it part of the manefesto! You may have voted with the government on most occasions but the fact you defied the whips with regard to gurkas should mean some opposition folk vote for you!
Alan Beith is crap! Indeed the only reasonable alternative speakers i can think of are Field and widders! Go for it Nick!
What is the worst that can happen given Labour are not looking pretty!
259- tyson
delpotro at wimbledon could be a great bet even if I suspect that Nadal will be back and angry, trying to compensate his loss at the French open by a second Wimbledon… It will be interesting (hopefully as crazy as this Roland Garros fortnight…)
Thanks for that,antifrank.Just to clarify; once the media had bagged Speaker Martin it was inevitable that they would go after an early election.
Here’s the twist.I said I would report any ‘insider’ money and I think we finally have some evidence.
There has been supernatural support for the postman. They do say ‘everyone’s at it bar the postman’ but in this case it is starting to look that AJ will be favourite over GB to lead Labour at the next election.
antifrank- you could do worse than pay a visit to Mr. Satan James and take the 3-1 Johnson for next Labour Leader.
279.Have not followed the link yet, but who is the journalist that penned that article by the way??
281 If Boris’ misdemeanours are anything less than having a life-size model of the Trevi fountain fitted in his grounds, I shall be supremely disappointed…
Bojo was in Sutton today.
The response to him in the high street was almost adulatory.
Good job he did it today if things look rough in the Telegraph.
One thing is for sure; the DT will try and make it sound as bad as possible. To go out with a buzz they will have placed more priority on the ‘person’ than the deed. They will just ham up the deed.
286 - Boris bought himself a gold plated mountain bike and billed the taxpayer? I doubt very much the money went on hair cuts…!
285
Irwin Seltzer.
286.No nude Greek goddesses lying around?
235. (and others) If the Obama administration broached the dealership issue fairly, it would have developed a set of criteria against which to measure candidates for closure/continuance. Size. Turnover. Proximity to more successful dealers. Etc.
In these circumstances, it could now simply come out and publish these criteria to demonstrate how everything is above board.
If, however, it HAD no such objective yardsticks or declines publication, then it is only natural that suspicions will arise.
By the way, tonight’s London Evening Standard had an article by David Cameron on the evils of proportional representation. Now I seriously doubt if he wrote it himself, but it wasn’t very good - it was a rather ignorant diatribe against a concept, which is OK up to a point, but he confused various systems and effects in a way which would only get a marginal Pass at A Level (even in these days).
Memo to Conservative Central Office - next time you want a hatchet job done on PR, get it ghost written by ChristinaD or someone who knows the diferent systems. The thing written by your Work Experience Intern wasn’t really up to the job.
286. A gazebo in the form of the Parthenon - full size, complete with dancing maidens.
Interesting that they leave Boris Johnson until their final day.
278 All very well, but he’s a hobbit, not a man.
Bob Ainsworth is rumoured to be next to be outed.
Here we go http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431621/MPs-expenses-Bob-Ainsworths-repairs-cost-the-taxpayer-5925.html
277 Marquee Mark, I know the answer to that! It was Ho Chi Minh!
288 - Boris is a highly paid columnist on the Telegraph. Unless they’ve got something really bad they will have to put up with the prospect of a DT columnist vociferously attacking them in their own paper.
I was thinking houris covered in honey and gold dust.
297 see upthread he has been
262 - Yes I remember it well. The family doctor drove one. Come to think of it lots of doctors drove them!
Its going to be Boris and the weekly claim for a Coconut Macaroon - receipts every week for 58p for a macaroon, I can feel it in my bones
289. Maybe that is the scandal? Hundreds of pounds spent on hair dressing.
293. Hmmm Augustus, maybe the article wasnt aimed at those of your intellectual standing?
300 Sounds fun to me.
295-Especially as he writes for them….
298 - Augustus, indeed. Erudite as ever!
284 - My most expensive bet of the year so far was to bet against Alan Johnson becoming next Prime Minister (I don’t rate him at all). When I realised that I had let my own judgement get in the way of noticing what was happening, I closed it down at a loss.
I have been watching the ascent of Johnson since with great interest. I find it hard to separate my own view of him from the betting, but your assessment matches that of Henry G Manson, the peerless observer of Labour party politics.
PS 2010 back up to 1.6 on Betfair, momentarily, but in volumes. A lot of money coming in to support a 2009 election tonight.
238 nick - if you become speaker does that mean you can’t come on here anymore?
Or perhaps post under an assumed name like ‘move on martin 2009?’
297 - Call that an “expose”. That’s only a “story” if you think politicians shouldn’t be allowed a second home.
306. Yeah, I should have been a roman emperor. I’m wasted as a pleb.
296 Being a hobbit is not an issue. There is time for him to have his second breafast as Parliament doesn’t sit until about 11 ish.
O Mighty Tim has been very quiet - but I predict he will on here within 17 nanoseconds of the Boris stuff coming out. You just know he won’t be able to help himself….
….and you know just which wonderful smears he will have brought with him!
I think today was a tipping point. I can’t recall, even in the dying days of Major, a radio 4 interviewer being as openly contemptious towards a cabinet minister as Eddie Mair was on PM this evening. Alexander didn’t even fight back. He just took the smack in the gob.
296. Sean Fear
I hate the way he has changed his opinion to be pro-Labour other than who he stands for! He should go now! F*cking traitor!
As i have said before running upto the 2001 election i remeber the little bugg€r running up toward parliament to vote! - If i had known how he would have turned i would have stopped him! His little legs were running as fast as he could!
How anyone could go pro Labour after the last 4 years i do not know! A deselection contest should take place - he is a horrible little gargoyle!
Julie Kirkbride was, in her time, an eminent Telegraph political reporter, and it didn’t save her from the Wrath of the Barclays. Maybe BoJo isn’t so bomb-proof after all. But the fact is, since his election, he has become even more popular. Unless there is video footage of him in bed with a dead c8ll-girl and a live choir boy, in the Carlton Club, drinking champagne and all weraring Ken Livingstone masks, he is probably untouchable.
292- To add to the suspicions raised by the circumstantial evidence, it is indeed unfortunate that Chrysler and GM are so reluctant to explain their closure decisions, even to the closed dealerships themselves. Some of the most successful dealerships have been closed, so performance apparently wasn’t the deciding factor.
316 The Telegraph barely touched Kirkbride - they went after MacKay and she was downed by association - there was little abut her specifically in the paper.
Well, whatever they have on Boris, the media’s gnat like attention will soon shift back to Labour once those county council results start rolling in on Friday!
300 Boris is a classisist - at very least an invoice for maintenance of the hypocaust, perhaps the cost an artisan relaying the mosaic floors and at top range a claim for bevy of nubile young women to pose as models for his frescoes.
283- Chris- Del Potro is incredibly consistent. He beats everyone, every time except the top four.
I overlooked him for the French thinking he could do well on grass this year.
I expect him to drop into the 20’s for Wimbledon before I consider having to cash him in. But if the top 4 start to tumble he could well enter the final 4 as favourite.
If Federer goes tomorrow, and Del Potro wins he will be the highest seed in the semis, and the most likely to win.
BTW- I think Nadal career wise peaked at this years Oz open. The greatest match of tennis in the history of mankind. He will win further Slams, sporadically over the next 3/4 years but he will not dominate tennis as Federer did for 4 years or more
314 - I have a suspicion which is beginning to consider the possibility of starting to cross my mind.
Is Socrates a nom de plume of the Mighty (other) Tim?
316 that might well increase his public support, “bit of a lad our mayor”.
There is a difference between being an ex and current Telegraph writer. The turnover of staff has been so great in recent years that Julie Kirkbride probably didn’t have any friends there left.
However if the Telegraph go after Johnson (especially on “trumped up charges”) then he will almost certainly quit writing for the paper, I would have thought. And the Telegraph could find that it has even fewer readers left once the johnny come latelies have left.
246. And so were Thomas Jefferson, Edmund Burke, David Hume and Albert Einstein. The problem with the people you mention is not that they were intellectual, it was that they were dogmatic and intolerant - something that exists equally as much, if not more, among those that didn’t theorise. The fact is that being intelligent, thoughtful and educated are good things, and if it weren’t for intellectuals the West would never have had the greap leap forward it has made in the last half-millenia.
261. Yes, and any sensible analysis would have compared this against the differential at car dealerships that weren’t closed. Anyone with the most basic understanding in logic would realise this. Because car dealers in general are a pretty conservative bunch, with 88% of donors donating to the GOP. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/news-flash-car-dealers-are-republicans.html
316-Augustus-Judging by todays reaction to him i think you are right.
He is a major asset to the Tories in London especially in the southern Lib Dem seats.
315. True. First question “Why is Gordon Brown so inept?”.
Wee Dougie never really recovered from that.
The big story now is not expenses, but the collapse of the government.
321. No Socrates is a highly intelligent and thoughtful contributor. I’d be interested to know who really is, though.
296. Sean Fear
I hate the way he has changed his 0pinion to be pro-Labour other than who he stands for! He should go now! F*cking tr@itor!
As i have said before running upto the 2001 election i remeber the little bvgg€r running up toward parliament to vote! - If i had known how he would have turned i would have stopped him! His little legs were running as fast as he could!
How anyone could go pro Labour after the last 4 years i do not know! A desel€ction contest should take place - he is a horrible little garg9yle!
I think Boris’s claims might be do when he claimed expenses when in fact he was doing some journalistic. I remember an articles in the Spectator from Iraq, soon after the fall of Saddam, which he described as a parliamentary fact finding mission. But in Andrew Gimson’s book, the tory whips were shocked to find him in Baghdad, just as they issued a 3 line whip. Just a thought.
292. Or maybe he has bigger things to worry about than giving oxygen to idiot GOP conspiracy theories.
318 - I thought MacKay was drowned by Cameron’s committee, and that was what tipped off the Telegraph to look a bit closer. I would imagine that the MacKay/Kirkbride thing could easily have been missed if it wasn’t being looked for.
215- Tim B, our friend Socrates sometimes gives in to fits of anger toward fellow PB’ers, but is otherwise a fine sort.
315 Mair was priceless. He’d given Hague a bit of a sarky time on “transparency”, but when he ripped into how crap the Labour Party were , unable to find a telephone, you knew he was going to go off - and then when he started with “Why is Gordon Brown so inept?” I did laugh in a rather unseemly manner….
Reminds me of the time Mair stitched up Dear Old Ming, by running half a dozen policies past him, asking him if he agreed with them - and when he did, letting him in on the secret that they were from the BNP….that was also a “beginning of the end” moment.
316. That might even get him a few extra votes…. Boris hasnt been tested yet though… Its pretty easy to sail the ship when the seas are calm…
320 murray wont win any slam, any time soon!!!!
Helene Mulholland, writing for the Guardian 13 May 2009.
“Conservative mayor of London and former MP (BoJo) says he has nothing to fear from public scrutiny of his own claims”
This could be fun?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/13/boris-johnson-mps-expenses
320 - tyson
“I think Nadal career wise peaked at this years Oz open. The greatest match of tennis in the history of mankind.”
I agree that it was a fantastic match… but I found the 2008 Wimbledon final even better. In Oz, Federer basically gave up in the last set, in Wimbledon, they both fought until the very last game.
I tend to agree with your analysis of Nadal’s future, especially if his knees let him down (already an annual occurence but it could get worse)
332 yes, you are right, I just don’t recall the telegraph doing any Kirkbride story at all other than her decision to stnad down.
318 They could have gone easy on her husband, but they didn’t.
319 That’s an interesting point. Even the Telegraph are no longer in charge of the news agenda. If they have kept something back for a Grande Finale, it might only rank a few columns on Page 7 of the other newspapers once the Election results, Cabinet re-shuffle and resignations start to come through.
284. I hope you’re right about the postman, he’s in my little list from when he was at 10:1!
Labour > UKIP drifting out substantially on Betfair again. Any new information, or just proximity to the vote?
333. Don’t confuse aggressive argument with anger - I just feel that ridiculous positions deserve to be pointed out as such.
325. I’ll be annoyed if Boris wasn’t abusing the expenses system, where’s the fun in a straight as a die mayor? London wants, no London demands a mayor who could one day feature in pantomime, like his illustrious forerunner Richard Whittington.
The Heff has a go…
We all have moments where we feel we have lost the will to live, and mine came on Monday evening when, just before retiring, I looked at the Telegraph website and saw that Gordon Brown was promising to remain Prime Minister. What, I asked myself, has any of us done to deserve that?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/5431483/They-call-it-Gordon-Browns-tragedy-but-its-been-a-catastrophe-for-us.html
ITN headline: A Government in chaos
328 and 333 - I hereby withdraw my thoroughly scurrilous and unsubstantiated allegation about Socrates
OT. Just watching the Daily Politics, crikey Michael Howard is really really pissed off with the Telegraph, he’s using all his powers of civility to hold himself back from planting one on the telegraphs political editor.
331- Obama’s obviously doing everything he can in broad daylight to protect his union pals, even to the extent of ignoring the legal rights of secured creditors, in order to keep the spigot of union cash into Democratic pockets flowing. Is it so hard to imagine that he would also further tilt the playing field when it comes to dealership closings? The circumstantial evidence is there (1000:1 ratio of GOP donations to Obama donations).
On the other hand, there is no evidence that Obama has ever had any intention of working with Republicans beyond the realm of politically-motivated lip service. Post-partisanship and unity were always a cheap smokescreen. He sees the GOP as the enemy. Maybe he’s right, from his point of view. His handling of GM is part and parcel of that battle.
I’m not sure it will be Boris. But I actually think people would be upset if he hasn’t bought a moat or a pair of outrageous trousers with his expenses.
I am looking forward to the Telegraph having no readers in 6 months time. Amused today to see that they are claiming that Hewitt is a casualty of the expenses row. She obviously couldn’t face the prospect of their devastating revelations that she claimed £1,000 on legal fees and had some blinds delivered to her main home address.
343- Okay, but I must say that I have rarely seen such aggressive argument in the absence of genuine anger!
Brown hiding behind the children-shields again…
Great BBC bit,
“All you need to know about Thursday’s elections”
1) Where do I vote?
2) How do I vote?
3) What am I voting for?
Can’t help myself in Pravda mode,
1) In as many places as possible, and don’t forget to get as many postal votes as well.
2) Put a cross next to anywhere you see a big red rose.
3) You don’t need to concern yourself with that, just be safe in the knowledge that the Great Leader is making the right long term decisions for the country.
According to Andrew Porter
“Some Labour MPs reported that a list could be circulated soon with names of those who want Mr Brown to stand aside for the good of the party. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431887/MPs-expenses-cabinet-meltdown-as-Jacqui-Smith-heads-resignations.html
Just seen an intriguing tweet “I’ve got unconfirmed reports that tomorrow’s Guardian leader calls on Gordon Brown to resign. Anyone?”
278. Alex. You just don’t get it.
You can try to turn this into a partisan issue if you like but it is not. Bercow like Bryant and Farrelly (and Hughes?) has claimed the MAXIMUM ACA for the last 6 years. He has enjoyed the system more than all but a couple of other MPs. The idea that he is standing is an affront.
To appoint him to reform (and reduce) the expenses is like asking an arsonist to put out the fire.
As for Cameron, even though he has claimed marginally less than Bercow, I wouldn’t want him to be Speaker either.
There is nothing hypocritical about it!
And with that I must depart for a couple of hours……
350: that would be Johnsonian trouserings, I believe!
355 - any yet his own name will not be on it…
I just met “the most famous author in Spain” in a Basque restaurant in Madrid.
His name is Javier Marias. No, I’ve never heard of him either.
But the roasted pimentos were good.
353 - Miniature human shields seem to be his specialty now, even the BBC have started commenting on it.
Guardian Leader Article calls for Gordon Brown to quit!
I wonder if the anti-politician momentum could build into something more widely anti-establishment? I’d like the attention to also focus on the obscene salaries and feather-bedding at the Beeb, all the quangos, etc…
Gibson’s constituency are fighting Star Chamber decision - they want Gibson to stand!
Surely its all over for Labour now, they can’t even be confident of winning the Plaid/SNP call for dissolution?
Chaos
361 Oracle
Presumably it is legal to doorstep him, even with the child-shields, and then obscure their faces for the broadcast?
356. Given the stuff Pollys been posting lately, that would hardly be surprising. They know the ships going and their desperate to get someone, anyone in that can at least keep them in the game at the election after next.
“[Obama] sees the GOP as the enemy.”
In other news –
Benedict XVI sees with Catholic viewpoint
Bears see wooded areas as places of defecation
Link to 362 and Guradian telling Gordon to go…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/02/editorial-gordon-brown-labour
365 - I think it is, but it stops the “live” doorstepping, and most tv seem to s##t themselves about filming kids these days (especially little ones).
Also, how does it look for the media, if some reporter type rushing Gordo, firing a load of questions at him, with a group of 5-6 year old around him. Screams bullying and inappropriate.
357 - you may think that, but then i specifically wasn’t directing the point at you. There is no doubt reading places like ConHome that opposition to Bercow as speaker is all to do with a combination of not liking him, and a feeling that Labour MPs are trying to get him in because many Conservatives don’t like him, and any claims about his expenses are being used as a total smokescreen.
I am with Cameron - the test on expenses/ACA is whether they’ve been used for things for which they weren’t intended. The amounts claimed are irrelevant.
366 - The rumour was true. The Guardian eviscerates Gordon.
363. I’m hoping for that too. The welfare state has been turned from a safety net into a giant gravy train. Not what it was for.
Freeland offers another view:
But such a move would create as many problems as it would solve. There would be public revolt at the notion of a second unelected prime minister. There would have to be an early election, thereby scuppering Johnson’s chance of introducing constitutional change.
However much voters might be charmed by Johnson, they might be appalled in equal measure by the sight of a party turning in on itself, either for a coup or a drawn-out leadership election. As the Tories discovered when they toppled Margaret Thatcher, regicide builds up poison that can take years to dispel.
It’s also true that there are no guarantees. It is not certain that Labour would rally to Johnson or, if it did, that he would have the magic healing powers his admirers attribute to him. He might do, but as yet he is untested. Recent polling suggests he would not lift Labour’s numbers at all.’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/02/labour-election-brown-leadership
368 - Thanks for finding/posting that link
Ladies and Gentleman, I think, we’re in the last few days of Gordon Brown as PM.
338- Chris- the quality that Nadal showed in the Oz final this year was incredible. For drama, 2008 Wimbledon was amazing.
It would be such a shame if Nadal’s powers falter rather than the rest of the men’s tour raise their game and figure out how to beat him. Where did Soderling’s performance come from?
Federer and Nadal have pulled up men’s tennis to great heights.
If Federer gets his head right he may well earn a further 4 or 5 slams. Or he may never win a slam again.
349. What legal rights of bondholders have been trodden on? Under bankruptcy protection it is perfectly legitimate to renegotiate credit lines. If it wasn’t for Obama stepping in to save the company they would have no money whatsoever. I don’t quite get the GOP argument - they think it’s unfair the bondholders are getting their dues cut, yet support a policy that would see them cut even more? I’m pretty sceptical about the government getting involved in car companies, yet the union-backscratching argument is a bit far-fetched. Both parties probably get more money from the companies involved than the unions.
As for bipartisanship, what about Gregg, Huntsman, LaHood, McHugh, Gates…
LOL! The Guardian thinks Labour can have another leader and hold off having an election until next May! They don’t “do” democracy these lefties, do they?
Nick Robinson scathing about the hypocrisy of David Cameron’s expense claims. I’m glad someone other than Tim has noticed.
All out Labour nuclear meltdown just one day before a national election!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will Labour go to single figures in the biggest humiliation in world democratic history???!!!!!
So who in the media is left propping up Gordo, the BBC? I notice even the Mirror seemed to have given up some what.
From the Guardian editoria”:
“The truth is that there is no vision from him, no plan, no argument for the future and no support. The public see it. His party sees it. The cabinet must see it too, although they are not yet bold enough to say so”
brutal stuff…
Is a new scenario developing? If Brown refuses to go, will the reshufle happen at the weekend and then Gordo gets ousted and there is another reshuffle….. A double shuffle…
Robinson faithfully recited some Tory grandee grumbling against Cameron, inserting a dig about his mortgage. What a waste of space.
378 - Nice to know ToeNails is living up to his nickname!
379 - You just aren’t capturing the true scale of this Ave it!!
So the Guardian is calling for Brown to quit. So what?
My wife is “in education”, and occasionally buys the Guardian on Tuesdays for the Supplement. She did so today, and so I had a look at it. I defy anyone to read its Leading Article and tell me what it means. It seems to say Don’t Vote Tory (OK, I can understand that), that Labour are not very good, that the Lib Dems are a bit better than they used to be and the Greens are pretty OK as well. But it gives no clear guidance as to how it expects, or wants, people to vote.
The whole thing looks like a stately gavotte designed to include all its readership, without offending any of them.
A waste of ink and paper.
Even the Guardian are wittering on about Gordo heading to the bunker to hide away during the shit storm of the next few days. What a leader!
385 ok i agree try this:
ASTEROID WIPES OUT LABOUR MELTDOWN!!!!!!!!!!!
373 - I am unsure whether to laugh or cry atnd leftwing columnists’ belief that it is either legitimate or feasible or both for an unelected Prime Minister with no mandate, to try to force through half-baked but wide-ranging constitutional forms, on the flimsy grounds that the expenses scandal is a consequence, through a discredited parliament also with no mandate, in 6 months to a year before an election.
378, hypocrisy? Cameron’s repeatedly stated that second running costs (mortgage interest, council tax etc) should be paid by expenses but other stuff (food) should not.
Remember that bottle of bubbly you said Gordon should put on ice, Roger?
The Guardian has just stuck it somewhere rather warmer — warm, dark and very very Brown.
So today we have the Guardian and the Telegraph calling for Gordon Brown to go. Last week we had the Times calling for the Cabinet to depose him. Has the Independent yet opined? (Not that anyone would actually care).
What are the chances of the Guardian going fullscale behind the Lib Dems by the election next year? How much impact would that have?
378 - suddenly Nick Robinson makes a lot of sense. Wasn’t Tim very quiet that week Nick was on holiday?
What a truly disgusting Guardian editorial. They want to force another unelected prime minister on us, and make us wait until May 2010 anyway; then they want to force a referendum on electoral reform, something not in the last manifesto; and if all else fails they want Labour to unite with the Lib Dems to defeat the Tories.
Scum. They are just…. scum.
Memo to Labour: F*CK OFF.
393
It might be significant as it seems more than likely that Labour will implode. Nick Clegg as leader of the Opposition,…
A small story about negative campaigning. My mother is dyed in the wool true blue Tory. I suspect that she has voted Tory at general elections every single time.
Today she received the Conservative leaflet for the county council elections. The back page of a four page leaflet was given over to “Thank you and goodbye [Lib Dem councillor]” and listed the things the Conservatives reckoned that he hadn’t done. My mother is enraged, thinks it’s disgusting and will be voting Lib Dem in the county council elections.
@386: I’m not even sure that it says “don’t vote Tory”. I think it says something along the lines of “despite everything Cameron’s doing, the Tories probably won’t be radical enough (especially if you’re for voting reform).
It also says that there are a couple of options - Labour could stick with Brown, melt down completely, and someone else could (c.f. the LDs) take up the progressive-left banner. Or they could boot him out, in which case it is likely that Labour will remain the party of the progressive-left. It then seems to leave you with the choice…
378 - IMO Tim is more likely to be Mcbride smear smear
376- I’m surprised you haven’t been following the news of Obama’s attempt to strongarm secured bondholders to accept far less than they would be entitled to under bankruptcy law in order that the unions could get far more than they would otherwise be entitled to. This has been discussed in countless articles on the subject. Under U.S. bankruptcy law, the secured bondholders should stand in line ahead of the retirees pension funds, for example. That isn’t the deal Obama tried to finesse, however, and he publicly shamed the secured bondholders as “speculators” when they tried to resist his intimidation.
Look, labour are in turmoil tonight not really knowing where to turn.
The only thing they do know is that GB is finished.
Events dear boy events.
How can the Guardian possibly talk about fixed parliaments and then use Scotland as an example of it “working well”? They’ve only had 10 years of existence. You can’t judge constitutional reform by how well it works over ten years!
399 - Well plus he has all his smears on file, links, pictures etc, to pretty much every Tory politician past and present.
393. I’ve been expecting both the Guardian and BBC to swing behind the LDs for ages but so far they’ve clung on.
Nick Robinson had lunch with Alan Johnson today, he must of got his script for the week.
392. The Independent will probably have a full page picture of a Giant Panda, or a Polar Bear, with some asinine statement about global warming/ george bush or Palestine.
404 - Backing another loser / somebody not suitable to be leader then
Clegg, like Postman Pat, seem alright guys, but never leadership material in a million years.
403 - and time on his hands! LOL
400. Link?
360. Surely that means that it is in fact Javier Marias who has just met the most famous author (temporarily) in Spain?
I just noticed that according to the Grauniad editorial Brown used the phrase “the better angels of our nature” on his first day in Downing Street.
This of course a direct lift - theft? - from the ending of Abraham Lincoln’s first inaugural address:
“I am loath to close. We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.”
Even on day 1, he has to steal somebody else’s speech….
395 - there is a funny thing about this proposal for a referendum on electoral reform. It presumably couldn’t go into too many specifics about what the new voting system would consist of, which would presumably allow the Conservatives in Government to design one to suit them perfectly.
Then watch the Opposition parties vote it down.
The Guardian editoral is huge even though its badly written and noone will read it. Its like the Secret Service rebelling and turning its guns on the President.
Having been out this evening, only just seen that Labour can’t even handle stopping MPs from standing properly.
What on earth is the point of preventing from standing those who have already declared that they won’t stand?
Don’t they understand that people will see this as political posturing and not taking the problem seriously??
397: Good for your mother, antifrank.
The Telegraph seems to be saving up whatever their final installent is? - we normally have it by now.
391. Nick Robinson pointed out that Tory MP’s are privately seething that He having taken out the maximum mortgage he could is being sanctimonious about everyone else’s behaviour.
He has ruled that ‘troughing’ is defined as any conduct other than that which he was involved in.
398 Thanks, Matthew - that’s a good try, but I am still not sure what they want me to DO. In the Euro elections, for example, do they want me to vote Labour, Lib Dem or Green?
They dare not say for fear of alienating any two of those three groups.
Spineless.
415 - I think they’ve pulled it at the last moment. Their website lead politics story on their website is Blair and the Queen agreeing not to watch a film about their relationship at the time of Diana’s death.
On a completely separate topic, the outbreak of swine flu seems to be spreading through the population. Now 2people are critically ill in hospital in Paisley. Given the fact the number here in the Uk is running into the hundreds when the tempertures are in the mid to high 20s degrees, if this continues to spread and incubate, come October, having a general election or not might be the least of our worries.
Incidentally in Scotland the main expenses issue is Robin Cook’s former agent and successor Jim Devine. He charged over £2000 for shelving in his constituency office which no-one recalls seeing and also building work invoiced from a company which it is alleged has never existed using a VAT number which is false. He has been referred to the Labour star chamber. His seat has always been a top SNP target, one I have predicted for a year the SNP could capture. Now it looks a certainty.
Upthread somewhere, Socrates asked, “What are the chances of the Guardian going fullscale behind the Lib Dems by the election next year? How much impact would that have?”
I would suggest that the answers are “No”, and “Not a lot”.
The funny bit of the guardian Ed:
“The opposition will want one immediately, but a new leader can make the case for some time to establish themselves, for reform laws to pass and for parties to pick new candidates. They could also argue that David Cameron needs to be tested properly. An election now would see Britain stumble into the future without any idea where it will lead.”
.
.
Augustus, Guardian readers don’t do what the paper tells them -they think for themselves and vote Liberal (Democrat).
397 can’t see the problem - the leaflet is simply just drawing the electorate’s attention to the (as per usual) useless local LD councillors!
416. Actually he took out a mortgage that was far bigger than would be covered by expenses, so he took the amount he was allowed for a legitimate expense, and covered the rest himself. All seems very reasonable.
416 - The definition of an alcoholic is someone who drinks more than his doctor.
404,the bbc have already got behind the lib dems,they have lib dem smokes people on every day ,talking about the nasty two main parties.The bbc use a party of 60 odd MP’s more times than the official opposition.Tonight on radio 5 we have the subject is the govenment in meltdown,with lefty guest,so far it’s lets attack the nasty tories.
419 - Easterross if you speak to any GP they will tell you that they believe that the actual numbers are significantly under-reported because the “containment strategy” rules that if you have symptoms you only get tested if you have come into known contact with someone who has been to Mexico or is known to have the illness.
The reason they have been able to get away with this is because the vast majority of people catching the illness haven’t really been very ill at all. These two cases in Scotland have only been picked up because the victims were in poor health anyway.
I bet I’m the only poster who has never used the word ’scum’. It’s just too ugly.
411 That speech was almost certainly written by a US speechwriter, probably Bob Schrum, then edited a bit by Brown. It followed the pattern of a US speech, his upbringing, his faith, his old school then uplifting passages with internal references to earlier Presidents.
New thread: “The Guardian calls for Gord to go”
Where does the Guardian get the idea that any government involving this bunch of Labourite urine gourds would have the moral authority to push through epochal electoral reform?
Who’s gonna support that if its espoused by anyone in this f*cking awful regime? Voters will just presume its vermin proposing to abolish rat poison, and they’d be right.
423 - There is no particular point to the story. Indeed, the Lib Dems (as Jonathan ably demonstrates upthread) are capable of being at least as dirty as anyone else. But some people respond very badly to negative campaigning, while many political types think that it’s a one way bet.
416 The Marquis of Lothian and Graham Brady are muttering again I see
Some whingeing earlier about a LibDem leaflet . Nowhere near as bad as a Conservative leaflet in Taunton Comeytrowe . After police involvement telling them that they had issued an illegal leaflet libelling the CEO of the Council and the LibDem candidate they have had to issue a last minute leaflet containing an apology from the chairman of Taunton Conservatives .
I assume that this has been discussed previously but…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8079604.stm
what is the chance of this actually succeeding in toppling the government? and does it even need to succeed to topple labour?
368 the champagne socialists at the guardian now desperate for a Lib Lab pact, coalitions and socialist grasping onto their slipping grip on power. Odious.
412. Yes the Tories may be handed a mandate to abolish socialism.
416 - Cameron wasn’t involved in any ‘conduct’ though, hence where you, Robinson and Tim fall down. He used the ACA to pay for second home mortgage interest. That’s it. No ducks, no cleaners, no pornography. Exactly what it is supposed to be used for. The fact that he sold some shares to pay off his personal mortgage shortly afterward is - from our point of view - irrelevant.
The sooner you and the bitter old loons in the Tory party who’ve been caught out realise this, the better.
427. I think you’ll find you just have.
395 I agree. Despicable.
It wouldn’t matter who it was, they would turn on him anyway. Eventually Labour will lose and they will do anything to stop it happening. It could be Jesus Christ himself. No morals. Only a sense of their own rightness and everyone else’s wrong headedness. They helped him knife Blair. Now they will help someone to knife him and because their puppet king will lose anyway, they will change the rules.
Yuck. Double Yuck.
340 Augustus Carp. Unless the “Grande Finale” is GB himself. The destruction of Darling abd Smith in the last two days, holders of two of the three Great Offices of State, suggests a careful build-up to the final day - either Milliband or Brown, or possibly both. Anything less would be an anti-climax.
411. To be fair to Brown, I think that phrase is so famous that he could expect anyone to know it wasn’t his.