Is this Brown’s explanation for expected poor results?
June 4th, 2009
Will today’s likely drubbing be blamed on the plotters?
Later on this evening I’m due to be taking part in BBC Radio 5 live’s election programme when the story is surely going to be Labour’s performance - first in the local results that will come out overnight and then throughout Friday - all this to be followed on Sunday evening, of course, when we get the Euro election figures.
This is one of those occasions when, unless the polls have got things dramatically wrong, it’s not going to be comfortable representing Labour - yet Hazel Blears & co have provided them with a ready-made excuse. It’s all because of the plotters. Expect to hear that time and time again in the next three days.
The is complete piffle of course. Labour’s collapse happened well before there were the first murmurings against Brown. The worst poll ratings for the party on the Euro vote are from Populus where the survey was carried out last week.
But that’s not going to stop them using the opposition to Mr. Brown as an explanation.
Tell PB what’s going on where you are
Throughout the next few days please tell us you news about what’s going on where you are. What’s turnout like? Which parties appear active on the ground? Is it more lively where there are concurrent council elections going on? What are party workers saying.
Hopefully we’ll start to get a picture of the likely outcome quite early on. Turnout is going to be key - any news on that would be most welcome. Whenever I vote I always ask the polling clerks about turnout and generally they are very helpful. The proportion of those who’ve voted by a specific time is a very good measure.
It would be great if PBs huge army of lurkers felt able to contribute as well. So in order to attract as wide as possible a response I have lifted the “must have a previous approved comment” mechanism for contributors. So there will be no need to wait for your contribution to the moderated.
If this starts to go wrong then I’ll restore our usual controls. Best of luck and have a great election day.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First!
Damn, missed it.
Yes, it probably will be.
No, nobody will believe him.
Predictions:
CON 25 - 30
UKIP 18 - 22
L-D 15 - 20
LAB 15 - 18
GREEN 08 - 10
BNP 05 - 08
Meanwhile, if the data I’ve compiled from various sources is accurate, the electorate is 2.2 million (4.8%) smaller than last time. This is a nonintuitive result.
This is a matter of expectations. Not so long ago, Labour getting less than 20% would have been a “disaster”. Now, Labour getting more votes than UKIP will be a “triumph”, even if it’s only 16%. The Conservative Party being stuck on the same 27% which they got in 2004 will be “a huge setback” for a party which hopes to win a GE soon, but which only managed to improve from 27% to 32% in 2004-05. The BNP winning a seat or two will be a “mid-term protest”.
Less than Three hours to go until i cast my vote!
I will go early and wait for 5 minutes the local polling station is yards away!
They will think i am barking mad!
I am voting Tory!
What time can we expect results tomorrow??
About three hours for me subject to trains.
I will leave work as soon as my relief arrives (usually around 6:15am) hopefully in time to get a tube to Paddington to get a train to Ealing Broadway to get a number 65 bus to my polling station at some time between 6:55 and 7:10.
Last year, I was the fifth voter at my polling station. I’d like to beat that this year
7. NU: What time can we expect results tomorrow??
There is a list of expected declaration times on the PA website.
It was a ‘big boy’ wot done it and ran away.. ‘ hang on .. oops
6. “I am voting Tory!”
A nation drops dead in amazement. We all took you for a big Nick Clegg fan.
“They will think i am barking mad!”
I have this vivid memory of going to vote in the 1999 Euro elections in the middle of the day, and they all looked genuinely surprised to see me. I think I may have been the first voter for about two hours!
6 - not just me then LOL . Is it 7am then ? I thought it was 8, even better! It’s a priviledge to have a vote, guess I am a saddo.
Which will be the biggest party among the other others? I predict it will be CP/CPA.
11 - see that’s what is wrong. There should be a queue!
URW says:
4/6/2009 at 4:22 am
What a 24hours !
I must say that this has been a splendid thread and have just read it from start to finish plus many links.
I retired in the early evening convinced that Gordon Brown was toast even though the betting momentum was for him staying.
That momentum has gathered pace as has that for the linked issue of a 2010 GE.All my money is on a 2009 GE and Brown departing.In the latter case I actually LOSE if he stays.
My thesis is that leaving aside all the plotting and spinning the real results of the EU poll will be so awful that he has to be replaced.
The spin will be that ‘we were undone by the disloyalty of Hazel’.This is obvious nonesense and the thing is that Labour MPs will not be fooled by this.
On a strictly betting note I think Labour will finish 4th in the popular vote but am hoping they achieve a TIE for Seats with either UKIP or the Lib Dems…or both !
I penned that lot unaware of the new thread but thought it worth bringing back up.
International perspective:
http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us/state_analyses.aspx#united
This site’s seems to be wrong generally. For France the Modem/centrist party is reckoned by all the polls to get 12-15%, not 9% and the Greens are above 10%.
8. Last year for the GLA election, I was the second person in my polling station to vote. I had been queueing up on my own for about 3 minutes, but then discovered that they had unexpectedly opened up the church hall to open directly on to the car-park instead of having to go in through the internal door through the main entrance. I had been waiting on the wrong side of the room!
Re John Loony:
“Which will be the biggest party among the other others? I predict it will be CP/CPA.”
Why do you say that? I haven’t seen them mentioned. Were there any detailed polls for ‘Others’?
5 Loony. The Tories will get 95% of UKIP votes back at the GE. If they get somewhat shy of 30% and UKIP get somewhat north of 15% then I think that gives Dave around a 45%+ share at the GE.
Starting work on polling day soon. The Tory County Campaign has been lack -luster, poor even. Labour non-existent and the European Campaign limited to the Freepost. If the turnout today is very low or high, expect weird results. Postal turnout here is average to low (65-70%), but nonetheless is a very significant part of the poll.
To all those PBers taking part for whoever: Good Luck!
Last time I paid attention, SPIN were of the opinion that the order of finish would be CON-LD-UKIP-LAB.Betfair predicted 24hrs. ago that the order would be CON-LAB-UKIP-LD.
All that has changed and now the Sharp Minds say CON-UKIP-LD-LAB.
My own interest is almost exclusively with TIED Seats.In the LAB v LD I took as high as 13.5 the TIE and have Layed it as low as 4.4 !
I confidently expect Labour to poll lower than their two closest rivals and pin my faith in the inequities of the system to bring home the cash.
19. I’m not aware of any, but I think that the CP/CPA campaign was fairly prominent with billboards, whereas the Eng Dems flopped and were invisible, the SLP is an empty load of has-beens, and NO2EU is not much more than a merger between a splinter and a slogan. JT and Libertas will flop and disappear - a bit like the New Party.
20. I know; my point is that Labour will spin that the Conservatives lost a GE a year after getting 27% in the EP election in 2004.
Eight Thousand
Eight thousand seconds to go
And then I will go cast my vote
That doesn’t rhyme
And nor does it scan properly
But who cares as long as Brown gets kicked badly
The key element for the Tories in the next GE is the GAP between themselves and Labour.Even on a split like 35-17-17-31 (others) they would romp home and the poor old Others apart from the SNP would meet a similar fate to the Alliance in 1983…….only worse.
Here I am all set to cast my first vote of the day.Vote early and vote often !
According to the BBC, only two regions have every party on the ballot paper fielding a full slate (East Midlands and Wales).
Off to get delivering - hope all activists here have fruitful days, are any posters standing?
9. Thanks. Will there be any kind of election programme on tomorrow??
Today’s results will help him on his way, catastrophic or not. But they’re not the be-all and the end-all. There’s other forces more powerful than a common-or-garden local/Euro election drubbing gnawing away now.
Brown will have to go because, well, he’s Brown.
And everyone knows that (even the Grauniad). Everyone, it seems, apart from (you guessed it) Brown. Explains a lot, really.
Nearly half past five and still no resignations today. Has the Government stabilised - or are things simply getting worse less quickly?
Morning all. It’s polling day. Just about to get going on my days election work. Long day. I suspect we will have to wait for close of polls for anything new, something a bit Crispin Blunt stylee might then happen.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8081729.stm
At the last European elections in 2004, turnout in the UK was 38% - across Europe the average was 45.5%.
There have been predictions turnout this time it could be as low as 28%, while others believe it could be up to 50%.
That’s very helpful. Thank you for that!
I think Brown’s safe, barring an unexpectedly good result for the Conservatives.
I wanted to vote, but my polling card never came through, and then I read somewhere that the form for the EU elections was three feet long. Is this an urban myth?
33 - Classic!
Random data: There are 25 different parties contesting the European elections in Great Britain (two of which are fielding only a single candidate), plus nine independents.
The longest ballot paper is in London (14 parties plus five independents); the shortest is in Wales (11 parties).
(Edit: while I was writing that, it became relevant! Pooner: you don’t need your polling card to vote; if you pop along to your normal polling station they should be able to help you, either by allowing you to vote there or directing you to the proper place.)
Anecdote - I spoke to my parents last night, elderly traditional tory voters in a safe rural west of england tory constituency. Both voting UKIP for the first time because of disgust over the expenses scandal. The local MP has been named by the Telegraph but is hanging on. I’m not sure they will go back to voting Tory at the next GE.
I was driving round the constituency last weekend taking phtographs for a book I am illustating. The only prominent election posters were UKIP ones
38. Victor: voting UKIP for the first time because of disgust over the expenses scandal
Not very knowledgeable, are they?
31 No resignations - green shoots for Labour?
40 - Well maybe they are just sleeping on it!
28. Yes, I’m standing. Originally, with little chance of being elected. Now, I’m not so sure…
9. Only 3 overnight declarations from County Councils / UA’s expected according to the PA, but there are a lot of by-elections today in other areas, so overnight declarations there may give us a clue as to the way things are going electorally.
One other point though: a lot of the data indicating very high turnout has come in the last few days - will this factor into the actual vs. expected (i.e. predicted by RO’s) declaration times? I suspect it will, so the actual declaration times will be later if the turnout is significantly higher than was expected by RO’s at the time the PA compiled its list.
39. No they didn’t know about Ashley Mote until I told them - but I doubt if 1 in 100 voters are aware of that
Brilliant Matt today…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Dan Hannan MEP and Blogger gets my vote, the only politician yet to convincingly put Gordon Brown in his place. Conservative. (European politics does not permit any individual to be voted for.)
If anyone else is involved in campaigning today - to what extent are you/your party operating like a “proper election”?
I’m organizing a London borough for Labour, and we’re actually running something close to a full General Election GOTV/number-taking operation.
I think people might be surprised by this - the “air war”, for Labour at least, hasn’t given the impression of a great deal of activity, but the “ground war” (here at least) has been pretty good. We’ve had a lot of volunteers, we’ve done a good canvass, and whilst a lot of people are unhappy with a lot of things, a fair amount of the vote is holding up. People are still happy to describe themselves as “Labour”, even if they may not vote for us today.
I think this means that the result of this election can’t be perfectly transposed into a result at the next GE, whenever it will be, or the London boroughs next year: a lot of these voters will give a fair hearing to any potential changes in approach Labour may make following today.
I’ve only seen two posters in the immediate area, both odd yellow diamonds ‘Winning here’. No signs of canvassing by any party as far as I am aware. No opportunites to ask why the schools are so poor, the council taxes so high and why the car parking fees just keep on rising.
Brown could blame Blears, the serial flipper, and tax avoider just like Hoon, Darling, and er Dr James Gor….
46. Aren’t you in the Philippines?
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LS [4] Says:
“Meanwhile, if the data I’ve compiled from various sources is accurate, the electorate is 2.2 million (4.8%) smaller than last time. This is a nonintuitive result.”
Why? Is this true? I have been arguing for some time that emigration is higher than people think. Or are the ghost voters being frightened off?
Brown’s explanation for the anticipated poor result was trialled at PMQ’s yesterday: the expenses scandal.
This has the advantage of noting that all parties are suffering (so it’s not just Brown at fault - and possibly not at all): “see - the Tories failed to advance in votes / lost seats and they lost the election after that performance in 2004; the Lib Dems finished fourth again.”
Blears may get some blame and Friday and Saturday (when just the local results are in) will probably be worse for Labour than Sunday (after the Euros).
That may impact the momentum. If Brown can get through the weekend, things may start to look up for him - a feeling of ‘it’s not so bad after all’ may begin to emerge within Labour. That, of course, is a relative feeling. A vote share in the teens and/or finishing third is still a drubbing but is also on a par with expectations and so won’t feel that dramatic. If Brown is to be ousted, it’s the locals that will have to do it.
51 - The problem is if the Conservatives exceed expectations or Labour seriously underperform expectations.
47. We are running full operations for the 39 seats we are targeting. The lot, Tellers, Knockers, etc.
50 Icarus, ISTR that after a vote-rigging scandal a couple of years ago, 25,000 people “disappeared” from Birmingham electoral registers.
I was not surprised by this, but 2.2 million? How are you calculating your figures?
Labour Go Fourth or Labour Come Fourth
Brown has his excuses at the ready, he is just getting on with the job, but there has to be a rebellion.
51. David Herdson.
The results are part of the game. The other is the reshuffle. Here Brown faces two substantial problems:
1) Looking weak because he cannot move Darling
2) Triggering a rebellion from those he tries to move
If we get a messy compromise, with Darling staying in place, that means his cabinet is full of expense troughers and Brown has committed the electoral sin of not being clean. That means Labour head towards sub 20% regularly on GE polls.
Labour suffer from being in power and dirty on expenses. Brown just looks terribly weak. Even if he survives the poll results, it could be a bad reshuffle that does for him.
In the past week: status of posters seen:
Stoke on Trent? Nil
Biddulph and Congleton: Nil
Shrewsbury: Nil
Market Drayton: UKIPx1, Conservatives x2.
Alderley Edge,Wilmslow: Nil.
(of course, there may be posters which I did not see)
I had a look at the Euro ballot form last night as my husband is a presiding officer. In our area there is a Socialist Labour Party set of candidates as well as official Labour Party candidates’ block. As the Socialist Labour Party group appears higher up the ballot paper than the official Labour candidates I feel this might confuse some Labour voters.
Anyway, this could be an excuse for poor showing by Labour in this area (South coast).
First Polling Day for about 15 years where I will not be active. I’m thinking of it as a sabbatical. My best wishes to all on the front line today.
I’m bemused by what will actually happen. Its a shame we didn’t have an eve of poll ICM to compare the You Gov to. I think my predicted 13% to 14% for the Lib dems may have been a tad pessamistic. I’ll harden my 10% to 11% for the Greens to 11% to 11.5%. I think we’ll see a shy BNP vote with them doing better in England than expected. I’ll stick my neck out and suggest they’ll get at least two seats. one each in NW and Y and H.
Looking at the NW performance of the old Liberal party last time with their ballot emblem I think No2EU could be the surprise of the other Others.
Finally I always asume that the Tories will be a tad higher and Labour a tad lower than the final polls show so I reluctantly conlude that Labour may well be fourth in the popular share with UKIP,LD,LAB,GRN all bunched in that order in the teens and its this uncomfortable territory with Lab only winning one seat on some lists that will finally topple Gordon.
Brown is safe because of the usual problem of lack of a candidate for opponents.
That was the advantage of the old Tory system - a stalking horse could be used to gauge levels of support for a challenge. Despite all the talk a stalking horse doesn’t really work in the Labour system. The point of a stalking horse in Labour is to force other potential leaders to declare their hand before knowing the likely outcome.
In four minutes time, loads of the sadder PBers walk into Polling Stations and shout
First!
Here in Leek (West Midlands Euro region), I’ve seen three UKIP posters and one Green Party poster (though I suspect that’s the house of the Green Party County candidate).
61. In my first council election I was at the polling station door as it opened and walked in on my tod to the amazement of bleary eyed polling staff in my suit and tie and with a rosette.
When I handed in my polling card one dozy worker exclaimed ” thats bizzarre ! You have the same name as one of the candidates!. “
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One vote [54]not my figures they are LS’s.
Just looking at the East Midlands figures for last time Valid votes cast plus spoilt papers were 797 less than the total number of votes counted (all postal). What happened to these 797 votes?
I was the first voter at my polling station!
I voted Tory!
I examined the ballot paper and their are 12 Parties on the list for Yorkshire and Humber!
The BNP are at the top of the list. Tories about third, Ld a bit further down and Labour down the half to three-quaters of the way down! Labour could suffer badly if they are all like that.
Also interested to note the Jury Team only have three candidates in this region!
re 61. See 65!!!
65 - Just got back from my polling station. Was first, voted Conservative on both ballot papers.
67. Only Euro’s in this neck of the woods! Though there are some local elections in north yorkshire.
54. onevote: 2.2 million? How are you calculating your figures?
The numbers for this year come from the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm and linked pages - although the sum of the 11 GB regions is over 1 million less than the total electorate listed on that page! (I suspect they’ve mistakenly added NI into it…)
The numbers for 2004 don’t add up either; also, the East Midlands electorate is listed the same for 2004 and 2009, so I have some doubts over the figures.
Meanwhile, I have voted on my way home from work; I cast my ballot for a different party to that for which I voted five years ago.
58. Sandra M: In our area there is a Socialist Labour Party set of candidates as well as official Labour Party candidates’ block. As the Socialist Labour Party group appears higher up the ballot paper than the official Labour candidates I feel this might confuse some Labour voters.
Possibly. I notice that both The Labour Party and The Green Party are listed under T (London region). But the SLP entry clearly says “Leader Arthur Scargill”, so there shouldn’t be too much confusion.
I laughed at the posted instructions to “fold the ballot paper in half” before putting it in the ballot box. I had to fold it in eight!
Morning all,
Well it’s a bright sunny morning here in the Hannan heartlands. Won’t be going to the polling station until this evening but it’s possibly going to be a good day for it down here……
69. LS - Many thanks. If the BBC’s figures are accurate, there might be soomething in this - certainly the idea of a *drop* in the electorate goes against what a lot of planning decisions are based on - eco-towns and so on; also, to name just one further example, Cruddas’ point about pressure on housing being due to a lack of supply.
I voted at 7.10am in NW3, four before me, staff say ‘quieter’ than normal.
68 - Was difficult for me to vote as I could barely hold the stubby pencil. This was due to the infamous dog mauling incident yesterday. Still managed to make my ‘X’ though, just.
73 - Oh how can they know after 10 mins. That’s insane of them.
63 - well not many people have the name Yellow Submarine!
Tories putting there all into the North Tyneside Mayoral, a litmus test for the Conservatives in the North East. Seem confident of victory but will might they loose on second prefrences like last time?
Long time lurker here. I voted 10mins ago here in King Alfred’s Capital and I passed 3 going in on the way out. So people were out ealry to make their X.
Oh, on the poster front- just one - a Tory one which somebody wrote “thieving bastards” underneath.
Mike - “… all this to be followed on Sunday evening, of course, when we get the Euro election figures.”
Not in Scotland Mike.
Due to the Western Isles observing the Sabbath, we will not have the Scottish result til Monday.
Peterborough Eastern Region - only Labour are doing anything - taking postal vote samples, having public stalls, Minister visits, people putting posters up and working to get the vote out today. Effectively combating the BNP from making any inroads - the local Tories are so right wing many having BNP sympathies and keep doing racist politics, Ukip came third here last time. It will be interesting to see if they make second.
I was gonna vote UKIP on the ‘rage at MPs factor’ but switched to Green at the last second, it was the face of Farage (yuk) wot done it.
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LS: The Electoral commission has East Midlands last time as 3,220,019 the BBC says 3,241,566 this time an increase of 21,547.
78
I will vote at 9am on my way back from shopping, I will report on T/o then.
Good start here in south ashford. 5 votes with reassuring nods and smiles from all. No other
Tellers here which is odd as it’s meant to be a tory target
[irony]After 30 minutes of polling, I think we can safely declare that the signs are already without a shadow of a doubt that this is going to be a long night for the Tories.[/irony]
80. please tell me again which party is in the process of legalising racial discrimination.
The EU Tories are going to be part of what group?
Does anyone know how things are predicted across Europe - will the socialist group be the biggest group after the results are in?
This is an EU election across many countries and not just a vote about Gordon Brown as the UK media have made it out to be.
73. Polling staff *always* say it’s quieter than normal. I was in a local election last year where the turnout was over 50% and the number of votes cast in the ward was well into the top ten for a council election in the district in the last 10 years and they *still* said it was quieter than normal!
61 etc. I’ve just been to vote and at 0720 was the first in my half-station (it’s a biggish polling district so we have to ballot boxes). I’m in the same constituency as Martin (Y&H) and must admit, the ballot paper was that long (about 50cm) that I couldn’t be bothered looking down to see where Labour was. I think the Christian Party might do OK though among the little fry, being second on the paper and the BNP’s top spot might end up as having been critical if they do win a seat.
I’ve got something of a trek ahead of me. Bus from Aix en Provence to Nice, flight from Nice to Bristol, hopefully getting home from the airport in time to vote this evening.
Egyptian military band give worst rendition of US National Anthem ever.
I’ll vote this evening. The polling station is next door to where i live , just got the bus into work, didnt see anyone going to vote whilst waiting 5 mins at the bus stop but it is admittedly early! Will report on activity this eve and ask about turnout when i go and vote on my return from work around 8pm (12 hour days at the mo to keep company going in recession - thanks Labour). James
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LS The BBC says the electorate total was 44,118,453 in 2004 and is 44,191,160 in 2009. Where did all those immigrants go?
90 - Yes, I felt for Barack Obama who had to listen to that. It was abysmal as if they were sight reading it!
BNP were top of the list here in London, I dont think they’ll do much here, I don’t feel any real anti-muslim, Polish plumber taking my job etc. type vibe here in london at the mo’.
To answer stjohn from the previous thread, I don’t think that a new Labour leader would be obliged to hold an immediate election and probably wouldn’t (though I think that he or she would probably be well-advised to do so within a couple of months of taking office - it has long been my view that the sooner Labour went to the polls, the less badly they would fare). I broadly agree with Matthew Parris’s view in his column in the Times today:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6426547.ece
“I don’t myself accept that a new Labour prime minister would have to call an immediate election. He or she could probably get away with naming the date (early next spring) and asking us for a breathing space to steady the ship of state, chart a course and develop the sustained challenge to the Opposition that the Tories deserve but have yet to face. There would be a fortnight’s national squealing about constitutional outrage, and then we’d lose interest.”
In fact, I have long believed that a new Labour Prime Minister could sidestep the squealing neatly by committing in future to fixed term Parliaments. By naming the election day on his or her own ascent to office, much of the sting would immediately be drawn.
For betting purposes, like you, I favour Oct 2009 and May 2010 and I am not bothering with any other month. Peter from Putney noted (at a time when the odds were much longer) that September and November were possibles, but politicians are creatures of habit and I’m gambling (at 25/1) that October is the only month this year that would be convenient for a planned election. For what it’s worth, I still think May 2010 is marked, whoever the Labour leader is.
88 - “Quieter than normal” probably just means “quieter than last time”. If “last time” was the GE or the London Mayoral election then it’s not surprising.
Mike Smithson>>>>>
Has there been any progress on the Political Betting Mobile Site?
Bob Crow top of the No2EU list - will he draw votes from Labour?
92. Icarus.
And yet the GB regions add up to 43,450,823 (2004) and 43,118,491 (2009)…
92 - they all went home last year. Not that large numbers would have been registered anyway.
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Nice joke on Today (from one of the papers, I think) Susan Boyle has been ringing Downing Street to make sure Gordon is OK.
95 - I agree with that.
And to focus everything any new Labour leader should immediately announce an Autumn Referendum on Electoral (and possibly Constitutional).
This does three things.
1.Puts the people in charge of cleaning up the system.
2.Destroys arguments that there is nothing for the Government to do in the fina year.
3.Puts the Tories in a position where they start cacking their pants over losing FPTP and places them in a position of supporting the old systam of safe seats.
If Brown is not removed, he should do the same.
94. Because the ‘polish plumber’ is a myth. The vast bulk of those who came from eastern europe, were young unskilled and willing to try their hands at anything. They werent, however plumbers.
It takes about three to four years to train to be a competent plumber, which requires both academic and practical study. Even if a polish person was a time served plumber in Poland he would still have quite a bit of difficulty working on systems used in the UK, remember, pre eu entry most of polish plumbing would be akin to britain 1950s.
No, the whole ‘polish plumber’ thing was made up, highly successful though in persuading people we needed the huge numbers of immigrants to do jobs ‘we dont want to do’
A story for modern times
101 - That one has been going around for a few days! I’m off out to help the GOTV campaign in one of our county divisions. So no more posting for me until tomorrow I would have thought.
PB celebrates!
102: So more for internal and tribal party advantage, than being good for the country…
Yep thought so.
87. The EPP is predicted to the the biggest group, the socialist group next
see: http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us.aspx
The EPP is the group the British conservatives have pulled out of, thereby weakening their party’s influence in Europe and weakening British influence should they form the next government. They have no idea, at this point, which other group they would join.
106 - Its partly that, I admit but the Tories supporting FPTP is for precisely the same reason.
Anyhow the main gainers are likely to be the Lib Dems.
107 - just a question. If the British influence in Europe is severely restricted by not being in the EPP, why don’t Labour join it?
104. Isnt that a touch misleading? I was under the impression that in the penguin species it was the male that was responsible for this side of the rearing anyway.
102 Interesting to see this mornings communique from the bunker. Nothing whatsover to do with keeping a few grubby little hands on the levers of power? Oh no, definitely not…
Interesting article by Austin Mitchell in The Times.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6426561.ece
I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for Mr. Mitchell, he seemed quite a decent bloke for a Labour party memeber however one line sent shivers down my spine.
“12 noon. Out canvassing. We do old people’s dwellings. The reception is good. The oldies are mostly still loyal to Labour, though they don’t like Europe. The ties still bind here.”
The last four words… Do Labour still rely on the ‘Donkey in a Red Rosette’ style of attracting support?
103
I do regular voluntary work for a London homeless charity (no, really) and there are lots of unemployed east euros we are helping but very few Poles given the number that came, also increasing number of failed asylum seekers sleeping rough, mostly around Victoria.
108 - Well the Tories supported FPTP for Scottish and Welsh Devolution, so that’s a bit misleading.
112 - no more than the Tories. How many people do you think bothered to take more than a cursory glance at the candidates before voting today?
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Met a group of local Tories yesterday talking to an acquaintance (Paul). The Tory recognised me as “the only Liberal in Town”. He was assuring Paul that the Conservatives would do something about immigration. I helpfully asked if the Tories would ban Poles and Spaniards and Rumanians coming here - which is what Paul was concerned about.
No they reluctantly admitted that would be against the law. The Tory then rambled into a rant that the problem was the muslims! Seemed a little unlikely in sunny rural Leicestershire but never mind.
102 - Whoever leads Labour needs a new prospectus. One of the biggest problems that any would-be challenger of Gordon Brown faces is to explain what different policies they would bring. At present, the case for change consists of “Gordon Brown is a rubbish leader” which, while true, reflects appallingly on the Labour party’s judgement in 2007 (that “fencepost tortoise” joke seems to have escaped the blogosphere and made it into the real world). Constitutional reform would be a good topic for any challenger to use as his or her manifesto.
However, autumn is far too soon for a referendum. You won’t get internal Labour party agreement by then on what to put forward and you would be open to accusations of making major constitutional change in a knee-jerk manner. Labour itself would disintegrate into rows about the system. Better to propose it for next year, probably to tie in with the general election.
I’m going to the polls within the hour. Had my local Lib Dem candidate come round to our front door, after I sent them a email about why I should vote for them, though not surprising considering the activist base they have in the North of Folkestone.
Apart from that, I haven’t seen any other parties, though to be fair, we have had the party propaganda from the main parties.
117 - tieing a referendum in with a General Election is just a stunt, that would probably actually backfire. None of the detail would be sorted, which would basically give a Tory Govt carte blanche to make any new system as favourable to them as possible.
The only reason people in Labour support PR is as an anti-Tory measure. They wouldn’t be much in favour of any system that stuffed them as well. There is no evidence worldwide that PR has to be bad for rightwing parties, even system that aren’t designed in their favour.
107.Won’t matter which group Labour joins given the drubbing they are about to receive.
Reid, Blunkett turn down the PM…..how long before (not very) Long John Prescott gets the call?? Always thought John Bercow would make excellent Labour Home Secretary…..although that would scupper his Speakership ambitions :o)
Anyway, in one of life’s magnificent little ironies, I’m effectively getting home from a year studying abroad then immediately voting for a Eurosceptic party. Takes more than an ERASMUS grant to convert me to Euro-federalism. Smash the system, maaaaan.
You cant blame Martin Day for getting out early if the weather is anything like it is here.
In glorious sunny Belfast rumours are rife that Sinn Fein, thanks to a 3 way split unionist vote, should top the poll since they havent much to overturn. The hidden factor is whether the Sinn Fein base comes out given the wider ructions in the republican movement. Chances are SF will mobilise them well.
Meanwhile in Ireland, Fine Gael is playing down its chances in Dublin Central by election where its candidate is 2/5 to win it. Bluff, or they genuinely worried?
50 minutes in, 14 voters and sunny in south ashford
so, tim, thinks the Tories are wedded to FPTP for “internal and tribal party advantage” yet, RodC (bleurgh, go wash your mouth out)asserts that they need something like an 8% lead in national polling to achieve parity in seats.
Sort yourselves out chaps, just what is the party line?
117 - I’m not so sure on that.
A question on Electoral Reform for the Commons could be put together pretty quickly.
If people don’t vote for it for the reason you’ve stated then it won’t go through, but I think the public mood is “give the voter more power, fair votes, get rid of safe seats”
119 - I wouldn’t have the Referendum at the same time.
Referendum in the Autumn.
GE in the spring.
I’ve always supported PR, but watching the Tories cack themselves at its mention has never ceased to amuse me.
124 - Woul the Tories support the retention of FPTP in a referendum?
If so why?
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Alex [104] - From your link about Gay Penguins: “The Humboldt penguin is normally found on the coast of Chile and Peru, but numbers have dropped…” I think I have found the problem.
125 - I think the UK can be thankful that in its long history constitutional reform has not been possible at the speed it is in Tim’s fantasy world.
FACT: there are a lot of Labour MPs in “safe seats”.
FACT: There are a lot of Labour MPs who would rather see a Conservative Govt than be forced into permanent coalition (at best) with the Liberal Democrats, so it’s somewhat dubious whether even a referendum bill could get through the Commons, let alone the Lords.
125 - Posing a question is always easy. Deciding what you should be asking about is rather harder. If a referendum isn’t going to collapse in a circle jerk of electoral reform junkies each touting their own pet scheme, the public will need to be led to a straight choice between the current system and a single clearly defined new system.
A Referendum Bill would need to be passed through both houses of Parliament. That will take debate within the Labour party and will need some discussion with other parties too. Even getting a referendum in place for spring would be working on an extremely tight timetable.
126. Because FPTP is incredibly easy to understand, it creates strong government, it isolates minor parties, it stops the third, small party in a three party system always having the power.
FPTP is ingenious in its simplicity. The nation is divided up into 650 areas, of roughly equal number of voters. Each area has an election, the person who gets the most votes is the MP for that area, the party that can command a majority of MPs forms a government.
Voted just after 7am in Islington North and in spite of the early hour, a small queue and a short wait.
130 - and it presents voters with a clear choice at elections, without having to second guess the shenanigans ensuing afterwards.
Queued up to vote in Bishops Stortford. OK only 3 of us, but still…
Lovely day to get rid of a sh1te government. Come on everyone get out and vote not-Labour.
128 - Fact.
Given the Public Mood at the moment no politician is in a position to delay the peoples vote.
130 - If I told you that AV and STV actually stood for Alternative Vaccine and Single Transferable Vaccine would it get your support.
Morning all.
Just been to vote in the Bricknell ward of Hull (North). It’s a gorgeous morning here, and there were quite a few people there voting - perhaps more than I’d have expected at that hour for European elections.
EDIT: the only posters-on-lampposts I’ve seen all week are Lib Dems, mind. I guess they’re fairly chipper around here these days.
126. Do your own legwork, ask them. Doesn’t the rebuttal computer give you the answer?
The rules for replacing Gordon Brown
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5438474/The-rules-for-replacing-Gordon-Brown.html
I still think it’s odds on he will be there for 12 more months, today aint gonna change anything.
Systems like STV also undermine the constituency link and the tradition that an MP is in place to represent ALL of the electorate not just those who voted for them. Multimember constituencies blur the lines of responsibilities and will leave some MPs fielding enormous loads of case work across a wide area, with other being underworked (as well as widespread duplication of work adding to the cost of democracy).
Situation also complicated by MPs taking up ministerial responsibilities.
No queues, ten votes by 7.45.
Unimpressed by Grauniad nonsense on ‘electoral’ reform. Less covert and overt flipping, and tax dodging by MPs is needed, not some excuse to ‘fix’ the voting system. We should all be equal before the law when it comes to taxes and expenses. Blears, Hoon, Straw, Brown and many others have forgotten this.
The party list system for the Euros is hopeless, there is no mechanism for supporting or withdrawing support from individuals on the list whose views are hopeless, extreme. Nor is there a way to block the election of known troughers.
turnout looking higher here. Twenty by 07:45 at my closest polling station - bumped into vicar who says he likes polling day as he gets his best turnout of the year!
134 - Er, why doesn’t Gordon Brown call an election then?
BTW what system of PR do you support. Or will any do?
Happy Hunting to all PBC candidates today.
Brown is toast - gone by Tuesday.
139 - Quite. A transparent expenses system would soon sort out all this expenses nonsense. MPs would claim what they can justify to their electorates and the whole system would clean itself up very rapidly.
The fact that MPs are being forced to stand down due to voter anger in even some of the safest seats, shows that FPTP is no barrier to removing MPs if the electorate is fully informed.
141 - 3 Member Constituency STV.
the link between an MP and their consitituent is broken if you end up represented by a second rater who you can’t remove in a safe seat.
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Douglas Carswell a Conservative MP says:
“Like most Conservatives, my opposition to proportional representation was once absolute. Yet four years in the House of Commons has forced me to think again. Put simply, the Commons isn’t working – it’s monumentally useless at holding those with power to account…..most versions of PR - like the Euro election system – would in fact make politicians less accountable. Many kinds of PR would strengthen the party machines and insulate the political classes yet further. The nightmare would be to move from a system where 7 out of 10 politicians had a job for life, to one where it was 9 out of 10 (see Belgium or Germany).
However, the multi members system that they have in Ireland would retain many of the advantages of our existing system – while exposing all MPs to genuine competition.”
143 - FPTP is no barrier to removing MPs if the electorate is fully informed.
How long were the Wintertons MPs?
Just voted here in Folkestone NE, bit of confusion regarding house numbers for the person ahead of me which was quickly sorted out. A few people there voting whilst I was there, but no real signs of enthusiasm to be honest, though it is still early in the day.
Just had a bunch of school girls walk past. One said “why is this a
Police station?” To which her friend said “no you retard, it’s a
Polling station” to which the other said “pulling station? Cool”
Class education system
Morning all on this glorious sunny day.
To all the PBers, lurkers and foot soldiers taking part in today’s proceedings, no matter what your political leanings, enjoy the day and Good Luck!
Nice article in the Sun today (Sun Says) just urging everyone to get out and vote. I notice that sort of hiding in the middle it tells people to vote Tory. Truly the dirty digger has McMoron in his sights now. It will again be the Sun wot won it!
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
The system that is used in Wales does mean that the list AM’s are divorced from the electorate in the area they are supposed to represent.
I am not against PR,but the system needs to be such that there is a connection(and accountability) between the electorate and their representatives.
And yes, my vote has been done.One for labour anyway!
Just voted here in Wapping. There was a small queue to get the ballot paper (4 people) I had a chat with the Conservative party rep outside the polling station who said voting had been more brisk than expected (50 people between 7 am and 8.15)
Electoral reform - beware the law of unintended consequences.
Imagine the situation in 5 years’ time with a battered, unpopular Tory government and a resurgent Labour opposition. Cameron’s last throw will be to enact Brown’s referendum result and forge a perpetual coalition with the LibDems. Poetic justice as the curse of Johah strikes from the grave.
Voted in Tower Hamlets about half an hour ago. Polling station pretty much deserted. None of the usual activists there. One other person like me in a suit arriving to vote but no sign of anybody from the majority local Bangladeshi voters. May be they will start coming later but then again may be they won’t bother.
148…state educated?
Don’t really want to get involved with the proportional voting ‘discussion’ that’s been going on here for the last few weeks however just one thing I do recall from over the years.
It doesn’t seem to matter what the political colour of the party in power/opposition is but when the GE approaches and there is the feeling that a sea change of power approaches, the party with the lesser chance of retaining/gaining power always comes out strongly in favour of PR. Sometimes, and for variety, if the opposition party is in a strong but not overwhelming position, they court the Lib Dem vote by seeming to promise a commitment to push through PR if they get elected. Afterwards this ‘promise’ is conveniently forgotten.
As the Lib Dems never have any chance of power, they consistently cry for PR as it’s their only chance of getting some sort of power.
AS you can probably tell, I’m not a great supporter of PR as I feel it leads to weak compromise governments and the electorate do not know what sort of government they will get when they cast their vote. In addition it does not lead to transparent government as power deals need to be brokered after the election to create a majority power block. These deals are always opaque and agreed in ’smoke filled rooms’. Does anyone think that this sort of behaviour would be acceptable in today’s climate of openness?
154..don’t they use postal votes?
I voted BNP in Norwich at 7.45 am and was only the third voter of the day.
Vote BNP!
156 - Would “smoke-filled rooms” not be a breach of the Anti-Smoking Act?
Here in the verdant acres of North Yorkshire there has been nothing to suggest an interruption to the prospect of continued Tory dominance at local level. The Lib Dems are fighting quite hard in some small towns as well as their fiefdom of Harrogate , Labour have been nonexistent (but have gained plaudits for managing to put up candidates in even the most unprepossessing areas for them ).
In the European election this part of Yorkshire and Humber will provide the bedrock of UKIP and Conservative support. The higher turnout here will spell doom for the BNP’s hopes of a seat in the European parliament as they have only a few areas of relative strength and large tracts of near-zero support. It is possible that they will poll decent shares in two council wards in Scarborough (Falsgrave/Stepney and Filey)
50 voters in first hour at the polling station I know about (in the Beeston division that we’re defending - 4% Tory swing needed) - pretty brisk. We’re doing a full GOTV operation here, but only a skeleton job in the other divisions - with only one seat to defend, it seemed in current circs best to pile people into there. We expect problems in Eastwood (in Broxtowe borough but Geoff Hoon’s patch) but have hopes that the friendly Independent in Nuthall can unseat the Tory education spokesman. Nottingham City Labour concentrating on GOTV in the Euros with just a little foreign aid to the County.
Prediction: no overall control for Notts and a Lab-Lib coalition; in the Euros, probably UKIP/Con/Lab/Lab 1, the last seat UKIP or Con, but probably Con. UKIP were just fractionally behind the Tories last time in the E Mids, but that was partly the Kilroy factor so they may not do as well here as other palces.
Just come back from doing the first hour of Telling in a ward in Carshalton.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
23 people.
I can compare that to the first hour of telling last year with the London Mayorals when we had 57.
Non scientific i know.
I’d support FPTP in a referendum. It takes a while to get the equilibrium we’ve got here in our voting system. But the results are often more representative of the peoples will(if there is such a thing) than places like Israel where they end up with some very bizarre coalitions leaving no one happy. We could for example end up with three or four DUP ministers in a Conservative Cabinet. How unattractive would that be?
159 - With Lib Dems, there’s a fair chance that the smoke came from joss sticks.
Voted in Batley this morning at 8am - already half-way through the first book of ballot papers and quite a few voters about. No Labour tellers though, which is unusual for this polling station…
159. Alex. MPs would exempt themselves from the rules. They nearly always do…..
Interesting article in the Independent by Matthew Norman about a Very British form of Anarchy
Just voted in Enfield. Bright but cold (after yesterday).
Busy for the time of day. Staff were very kind, considerate and genially incompetent (stood in our way 3 times, sent us back and forth between the tables even though we took a voter’s registration card).
The only party worker @ 07:30 was a Conservative - just settling down in her chair as we walked out.
163 - You can’t throw spanners in the wheels like that Roger. You’ll upset Tim’s fantasy of getting a referendum bill through Parliament, approved by the electorate, and subsequently one of the most important constitutional reform bills in history also through Parliament, the constituencies drawn up, the candidates selected…
all in time for a May 2010 election!
79 - Can’t they count on Saturday, and have the local Buddhist announce the result on Sunday night?
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fitaloon [167] -Is that Norman article typical of the Independent? Rambled so much I couldn’t finish it.
169. alex: the constituencies drawn up
And there’s the key point. The only plausible alternative voting system that could be put in place is AV on the current boundaries - and, as we know, AV can be less proportional than FPTP, especially where one of the three main parties is highly unpopular. Major would have been beaten worse under AV than he was under FPTP in 1997. Brown would be beaten worse under AV than under FPTP now.
The worry is that Brown tries to introduce a truly proportional system and uses it as an excuse to prolong the life of this Parliament…
171 - Matthew Norman is useless. His current favourite topic is “a written (sic) constitution” without really knowing too much about what it would entail.
I opened up the village school and helped to set up the polling staion. The only party rep to turn up was a Libdem, (an old friend) between 0700 and 0800 a quite steady turnout.
172 - He can’t prolong the life of the Parliament. The Lords can vote him down.
It would be an interesting constitutional and legal dilemma though. The Commons passes a bill saying that the next election must be fought on a PR basis. But the election happening anyway on a FPTP basis.
Voted in Clapham at about 7.40 - so right in the rush-hour. About 6 people voting whilst I was there but many more on the streets heading to work. One Conservative partyworker outside - usually fuller representation round here.
171, 173 what do you expect from an article about Anarchy!
156. Blue Rog
Actually it’s not clear that PR would lead to weak compromise governments - it would just lead to different compromises.
The basic premise of the Lib Dems (and the other PR favourers) is that they are under-represented in some way. In reality Labour and the Conservatives are compromises of their own. Both parties hold enough of their “core” support and fight for the median voter through their policy platform, which are compromises. Plurality systems tend to split into two major parties as the best way to win FPTP.
The argument that (say) only 35% of the voters who voted, voted for a Labour/Conservative government, ignores the fact that if the policies of Labour/Conservatives were sufficiently repugnant to the remaining 65%, then the 65% could have coalesced around one of the other parties. The compromises made by the “winning” party are sufficient that they do NOT drive the 65% into voting for a single opposition.
So in a PR system, we’d likely get more fragmented parties, but none of them would achieve a majority and explicit compromises would be made after the fact, as opposed to being made beforehand.
There would always be compromises, it’s that the form would be different and that slightly different groups would be favoured. The median voter - floating voters in marginals tend to do well in FPTP (but not that well as everyone must be happy with the compromises made), whereas PR (in general terms) means more widespread compromises. One claim that is made - with some empirical support - is that FPTP neglects infrastructure (roads and education) relative to PR.
I personally don’t think there is much wrong with FPTP and find the arguments about PR made by some to be disingenuous. However, compromises are made in all political systems.
Do we think that the safe seats would truly be eroded by STV? Probably not. Why? Because campaign resources for each MP would still be dependent on party support. Parties like to have stupid and pliant troughers - they vote loyally and don’t expect to become Ministers - a constant irritant when only 100 govt positions are available. The more established and long serving the trougher, the greater the name recognition. PR would be a triumph of hope over experience in this respect.
There be trouble in Bernard Matthews country……….
http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=NewsSplash&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED04%20Jun%202009%2008%3A23%3A24%3A223
Gibson to speak out tomorrow about Brown’s ‘Kangaroo Court’. Just what Gordon needs with the e-mail circling. Bootiful……
Just back from voting in sunny Peckham and there was a queue of 5 people in front of me!! The woman at the desk said it has been quiet though and only picked up after about 0800. Low turnout methinks.
No activists to be seen.
Hazel B might have done Brown a favour. I thought he looked pretty good and statesmanlike yesterday under the circumstances. Glegg on the other hand has developed a sneer which reminds me of an early Alex Salmond.
It could be better than expected for Labour today.
181 - “It could be better than expected for Labour today.” I agree Roger, I think they might get a lot of pity votes…
Just did my democratic duty here in Somerset. Not busy at all, and just one little old dear with a blue Rosette outside. Normally I don’t give them my details, but I thought I’d be nice to her.
If Brown withdrew the whip from MPs signing the “letter” would that mean that their signatures were invalidated for the purposes of the “72″?
Voting update:
Very quiet in Brent but my work colleague says lots of people queueing to vote as polling station opened in Eltham!!
180 - I didn’t see any other voters or any activists when I went to vote this morning just after 7 am.
re 181. But at the end of the day Roger Brown is simply unelectable - a factor that has been clear for at least five years. He simply does not have the personality or the communication skills to be a leader. He’s also gripped with fear when faced with having to make a decision.
The only Tory leader of recent years that he could have beaten is IDS.
Stupid stupid Labour giving him a coronation.
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Roger [181] Not much of an ask Roger. Have you seen today’s Matt?
Interesting piece from the Archbishop Cranmer (I didn’t bother watching the BBC drivel:
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2009/06/bbcs-guide-to-eu-its-piece-of-cake.html
181 Roger. Maybe. But ‘expected’ is a relative term isn’t it? We now expect Lab to come 4th and get a vote in the teens. Let’s say they get 18%. That would be better than expected. By any historcial standards it would be a fuc*ing disaster.
I’m starting to think PR can’t be that bad as, no matter how weak a government, one as shambolic as this would be put out of its misery rather than being allowed to limp on.
I was always a FPTP supporter but Brown is rapidly changing my mind.
Ref the PR / FPTP discussion. We really ought to look at the results of today’s election as a guide, being held as it is under PR to get an idea of what a GE election would be like. OK, many people are using it as a protest vote but it’s clear from the Scottish and London elections that smaller parties gain from PR. Greens and SSP in Holyrood, BNP in the LA.
The Labour and Lib Dems look unlikely to win more than 35% *between them* today. That is not a recipe for perpetual government. The idea that the present party structure (or more accurately, that of the mid-1990s), including their respective support bases, would survive a move to PR is IMO deeply flawed.
well, I went through, past the Church, up to the Tennis Club and things were v. quiet in the ol’ clubroom. The officials handing out the ballot papers seemed quite pleased to see me and somewhat flustered as if they were still getting used to procedure.
Make of that what you will, Dr.Watson.
189. Patrick. But, if the Tories are at 27%, Labour at 18% and 2nd would be a disaster but not unforgiveable. Labour at 14% and 4th would be a disaster.
181. Yes, all he needs to engineer now is a ministerial resignation a week through to the election and he’d be a shoo-in!
I would like to vote Labour today because of the sheer ennui of tory dominance here and out of a desire to try and keep Gordon in power longer - however there are no Labour candidates here for the locals.That to my mind is shameful and embarrassing.
In the Euros I wonder in the Cotswolds whether the greens might squeeze the LDs a bit. I think I’ll vote Green for the Euros as my protest vote over our troughing MP.
178 ken Thanks for the reply.
One way to get around entrenched MP’s in the system would be to keep FPTP and to wholeheartedly embrace Gerrymandering. Get a completely independant body to gerrymander the contituency boundaries so that every constituency was a marginal! An arbitary date could be set to determine the relative positions of each party then alter the boundaries to increase/decrease the share of the vote of the leading/runner up.
This would work best in a 2 party system
190
The problem with a weak government and PR is that a smaller party can use its leverage to gain concessions which would be denied to that smaller party standing alone, by virtue of the unpopularity of said policies
Hmmm seem to remember that all the papers, (including the Mail) were scathing about the car scrappage scheme.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190681/Car-scrappage-scheme-scrapped-August.html
Now there will be pressure to extend and fund.
163. Even worse scenarios exist Roger, we could have a future Labour government propped up by the BNP!
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David [191]- The Euro election is not under PR. You only vote for one list of candidates decided by the party concerned. It is an awful system.
184: If he withdrew the whip from 72MPs he wouldn’t have a majority anymore would he?
196
Excellent idea!
It would also work in a multi-party system as a large protest vote assumes greater significance
Another contribution from a lurker - my partner and I were second and third respectively at our polling station in Tower Hamlets (just into Bethnal Green and Bow Westminster constituency). Elderly white working class gentleman in front of us voting UKIP. We voted Conservative. No party workers; a few people (also elderly, white, working class) arriving as we were finished.
I must say that the design of the ballot paper in London might be a problem for Labour. The paper is folded into three - the first, most visible section is the BNP (right at the top), the Christian Party/Christian People’s Alliance next and then the Conservatives. To find Labour you have to unfold the ballot paper - twice - and then look all the way down - nearly to the bottom - because, as noted, they are listed under ‘T’ for ‘The’. And yes, long before you get to them you reach Socialist Labour (albeit with the Scargill caveat).
Many of my colleagues at Canary Wharf aren’t voting. Shockingly, my partner’s roommate at work wasn’t aware of the d’Hondt system, exclaiming “But I live in a safe Conservative seat! There’s no chance of the BNP getting in around there.”
195 - Wow, you couldn’t find a Labour CANDIDATE!?
That is a local party in a mess!
Ceredigion constituency: Voted postally a few days ago (due to concerns over H1N1 as I am a registered carer). No visible campaign on the ground (no posters, no candidates, no loudhailers as of 0909 BST on polling day) but have been contacted by the local Lib Dems to do some telephone knocking up
196 - Er, that would lead to one party rule! It is the presence of safe seats that guarantees a reasonable opposition presence to the Govt of the day.
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bono publico [197] ..and the problem with FPTP is that a Government with a minority of the votes gets total power to do what people didn’t want.
203: It does seem to be done alphbetically…which, given the BNP are at the top, might get them a few votes.
Maybe Labour should change their name to the A1 Labour party, like taxicabs.
Voteed at 7.45 am.One person in front of me. I was the 6th person to vote. Dan Hannan was assured of my vote as was my Tory councillor.
196 - Isn’t this pretty much what happens in the US with Congressionsl districts?
200 - Of course it’s under PR. You do understand what PR is?
201 - He doesn’t have to withdraw it from all 72. Just enough that they don’t have enough signatures.
210 - In the US the constituencies are gerrymandered so the number of marginals is at a minimum.
Voted in Fulham at around 7.45am too. Pretty quiet. One other voter, young man. One teller, Conservative. One ballot paper, ridiculously long.
Suppose 600 Seats 300 Con, 300 Lab. Assuming you could turn virtually all of these into marginals, a tiny percentage swing one way or the other would result in 600 Con or 600 Lab.
207
Ah but twas ever thus!
Every party is a broad church and nobody gets everything they want when they vote - which is why having a manifesto and sticking to it is important
212 - Thanks for the clarification. I just know that there are some pretty weird district boundaries!
207. Icarus. Actually the result is pretty similar.
In a FPTP system a party with a winning consensus (enough compromises made to win a majority not enough “bad” policies to inflame the opposition) can do some “extreme” and fundamentally unpopular policies as long as it isnt enough to make everyone unite against them.
In a PR system with fragmented parties, a small party holding the balance of power can get an “extreme” and unpopular policy in as long as it isnt enough to make the coalition fall apart.
All government is about compromises and coalitions.
208. Well, it worked for “Alex Salmond for First Minister - SNP”
Of course it’s “PR”, Icarus - it’s just that it is a particularly bad system, called the Party List System, designed to ensure rudimentary proportionality according to Party strength. It takes no account of the voters’ preferences for candidates. It is a system designed to infuriate FPTP supporters!
Of course, if they had the Single transferrable Vote in Multi member Constituencies, on the other hand, everyone would be happy, the blind would see, lame would walk, etc etc etc.
Voted Green in Ealing.
Voted in Charlton at around 8.30am.Was the 13th to vote.
Only the Labour Party represented.Had a very,very long chat with their rep. who amazingly knew Lorna Fitzsimons but couldn’t answer the question about her mother’s maiden name….so it’s still a puzzle.
Tried to explain to him about Spread Betting but saw his eyes glaze over and switched to talk about the BNP.He said that the BNP make shockingly bad councillors.
Anyway.By the time I left around thirty souls had done their civic duty.
The polling station clerk expressed the hope to me that we’d all be doing it again next month - extraordinary comment I thought.
There was also a queue - of two. Normally I never see a soul in the polling station at that time of the morning. There were also about half a dozen marks on the page showing who’d voted, again more than usual.
Vote in Vauxhall this morning, first time I remember a queue at the polling station at 8.30. The clarke who was clearly of the old school told me voting was “brisk” - I seem to recall it being brisk every time I’ve ever asked.
Only one observer/teller a young, quifed up Tory, Labour haven’t even managed to get a flyer through my door this campaign, all their resource in Vauxhall is been ploughed into a council by-election. Lib Dems are no where to be seen either.
OK, my report from Brent is the polling staff reporting that turnout is VERY slow. Their emphasis.
Personally, I have never sent longer in a polling booth. I just couldn’t decide how to vote. I guess most people who are not 100% tribal will have the same uncertainty. This could be a weird result.
I’m organising the Tory teller rota in my area in South West Surrey. I have never been involved in an election with so few posters out for any party. So far today it’s been slow, slow, slow. I did the first telling slot from 7am to 8am - would expect 100 through, got 40.
223 - All their resource in Vauxhall? Just the wonderful Kate left then?
And her definitely not red literature (last time i got a flyer from her it had UKIP colouring)
Mike S. Could you arrange for another online vote on turnout please?
I get the impression from reading the thread that it is very mixed and it’s hard to get a feel without numbers.
Voted in Blackburn, in majority Labour ward I was person number 8 after 90 mins, BNP were top of the ballot paper here too. Labour leaflet arrived 2 days ago, just a picture of a Union flag, for a sec I mistook it for BNP leaflet, although it didn’t say anything about British jobs for British workers….
re 35 Pooner you don’t need a card and here in the West Midlands the ballot paper required 5 folds to get it in the box. I pity the poor sods who’ll have to unfold them all.
224 David Roe. Exactly ! There will be some utterly daft votes cast today.
Miserable wretch that I am I voted for UKIP on the basis that I Layed antifrank 110-50 against the BNP beating them and I also have The Kippers to beat Labour and I want Labour to do atrociously for the sake of my Gordon to Go bet.
It’s just a shame everyone doesn’t share my sense of civic responsibility.
re 224 I havered over the European vote trying to decide which would be worst outcome for Brown, but still plumped for the Tories - first time since 1992 and first valid European vote since 1994.
Voted in Kilburn at 8:30 - no one else there (apart from my wife) and about seven people appeared to have voted before me. One Lib Dem teller who looked thoroughly miserable…
Only visible campaigning in Lambeth is Tory placards on what I suspect are 2nd homes in division bell territory.
Voted on the way into work as I always do - seemed busier than I can remember (including 2 general elections) but very annecdotal.
I think a high turnout spells trouble for Brown - it will be because people are motivated to give him a big two fingers.
231 - The worst outcome for Brown is a good Tory result. A poor Tory result and the Labour result can be put down to the expenses scandal, not due to Brown.
Big swing on the GE date market on betfair:
H2 2009 2.96 (2.4 yesterday)
2010 1.46 (1.8 yesterday)
No hard choices for me. Voted Green in west London. They already have an MEP here so no-one can say it is a wasted vote. Labour clearly need a good kicking, the Liberals have an awful leader, and the Tories are completely clueless and will win a GE without deserving to do so. Green is the obvious choice.
232 - I do wonder if the biggest losers (other than Labour) could be the Lib Dems and anyone remotely pro-European. My guess is that we won’t get any referendum on Europe for a long long time. Just in case we vote to leave the EU.
A vote on Lisbon would be a massacre for the gold star brigade.
229
We were asked to concertina our papers, leparello style.
Also off topic - in Cambridge there are county elections too - no sign of any card for anyone in Chez Flashman.
238 - I was just told to “fold it a lot of times”. Me thinks that even on a low turnout the ballot box won’t be remotely big enough. Watch out for a nightmare for the organising authorities later in the day.
How anyone could justify a Tory vote after the expenses stuff is beyond me.
House prices up 2.6% in May according to Halifax
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8082582.stm
This is important as it is the first up month where both Halifax and Nationwide have concurred. A sign of potential stabilisation.
I’m off to vote now.
I hear Bill Wiggin needs some help understanding the Ballot Paper.
Is anyone near Leominster?
Voted at 9am in NE Hants. There was one teller, a Lib Dem, who didn’t think it was that busy - she’d counted 60 people in two hours. The polling station is on an estate where a lot of people commute to London and is virtually on the route to the station so you might expect people to vote on their way to work, alternatively I suppose it’s just as easy for them to vote on their way home this evening when they won’t be worried about missing the train.
Even from what I have seen and read this morning so far, I’m guessing turnout in the low 20’s.
Anything becomes possible at this level but I suspect my party will do a slightly better job of getting their voters out than any of the other parties today; and that as a result Eric Pickles might have a rare smile on his face on Monday morning.
Of course cos of the lousy and irritating voting and counting system we won’t know till then….
220. Alf, me and my better half will be doing likewise this evening. So a strong showing for the Green party in west London today!
Passes the polling station in the church hall at the top of our street at around 7:30. No sign of any voters, but a chap with a Lib Dem rosette standing outside. I kid you not - he was wearing socks and sandals!
I’ve just voted in a polling station in the bar at Bedford rugby club.
Why are they using card-board ballot boxes instead of the old metal ones? It looks far less secure - but hey, after the Glenrothes marked register fiasco, who cares?
Not voted yet. Will do it in the afternoon. Decided, after wavering, that I’ll vote Tory not UKIP.
242 - If House prices rise in Q3 as you slagged me off relentlessly for suggesting, would you like to drop all the pointless insults and dim/idiot/moron stuff you throw about?
Particularly as your own predictions are pretty shite.
Good Morning Prime Ministererial e-mailers worldwide !!
Bright but chilly in the Jacobite Realms of Harpenden and environs.
Jack W en famille will progress to the fount of democracy later this morning and perchance take in the nearby hostelry.
Ah but the choice …. In the County elections both the yellow peril and blue rinse candidates are well known to me and both have excellent Jacobite credentials. Accordingly I’ve determined the choice by butt lot !! - How else for the purveyor of ARSE - shooting butt lots.
The winner - smile David Cameron Esq !!
Trickier are the Euros …. sadly the Tories have allied themselves with assorted Polish and Czech “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists” and once one rejects the other nutters on the left and right we are left with the unenviable choice of the candidates of Clegg and Brown. So thanks but no thanks and “None Of The Above” takes the prize.
247 - Mike - Any news on the PB Mobile site?
re 138 alex - simple those who do the casework will get more first preference votes next time; the slackers will find themselves out of a job.
Good Morning Prime Ministerial e-mailers worldwide !!
Bright but chilly in the Jacobite realms of Harpenden and environs.
Jack W en famille will progress to the fount of democracy later this morning and perchance take in the nearby hostelry.
Ah but the choice …. In the County elections both the yellow peril and blue rinse candidates are well known to me and both have excellent Jacobite credentials. Accordingly I’ve determined the choice by butt lot !! - How else for the purveyor of ARSE - shooting butt lots.
The winner - smile David Cameron Esq !!
Trickier are the Euros …. sadly the Tories have allied themselves with assorted Polish and Czech “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists” and once one rejects the other nutters on the left and right we are left with the unenviable choice of the candidates of Clegg and Brown. So thanks but no thanks and “None Of The Above” takes the prize.
First time voter, long time lurker. Voted in Farnham, Surrey at 8.30 this morning. Although I was the only voter there, they said they had been quite busy and there seemed top be around 35 names on the list before mine. Two papers - one (local) very short and the other (European) massively long. I voted Conservative both times, and the non-scientific conversations I have had indicate generally savvy voters who are going Tory for the locals (we have a very good candidate) and either Green or Lib Dem for the Europeans.
Even though I live in Surrey, I still talk to a disappointingly high number of people who just won’t vote Conservative ‘because they can’t bring themselves to’. So no matter how much they like Cameron’s message, it isn’t going to sway them. As a Conservative voter who went for Blair in ‘97 because I could see that Major just wasn’t cutting it, that is disappointing - what’s the point of having the capacity of reason?
Apols for double post.
247 - Old style boxes where i was.
247 - they were solidly robust metal boxes for our papers here in Hull, I think the sight of cardboard would have been a trifle disconcerting.
252 - It’s not a case of “slacking”. You can’t do casework that nobody’s given to you.
re 255. You are forgiven you old b*g*er
253 - JackW, do you walk to the polling station or take the open topped landau pulled by sundry waifs and strays?
241 Alf: “How anyone could justify a Tory vote after the expenses stuff is beyond me.”
It’s easy. First of all, most of the main parties are tainted by it, even UKIP in the Euros. Second, Cameron has addressed it better than Brown, and I think some of what Labour MPs and particularly ministers have done is worse than the Tories. Thirdly, I actually support the Tory position on Europe at the moment, the only party that comes close is Libertas and they haven’t gained any momentum. And the recent experience of UKIP is that new, inexperienced parties can be a right shower when they actually get elected. Fourthly, did I say UKIP are a shower? And fifthly, top of the Tory list is Dan Hannan who gets a big personal vote from me.
The Lib Dems got my vote in the county election, on local issues.
Just voted in the Epping Forest constituency. Voted Conservative in the Council election. And after much deliberation also voted Conservative in the Euro elections. Had been planning to vote UKIP in the Euro’s, but after the last couple of days I decided to do what Gordon would want least. Turnout has apparently been ‘steady’. Whatever that means…. Only the very occasional Conservative window poster to be seen in the local area.
Just back from voting in rural Surrey village - 2 wards voting within a single polling station and the box for my ward for the European slips already fairly full…though this may have been down to the hugely long ballot paper. The paper was provided unfolded but I was advised it would need 3 folds to fit in the box after voting….i suggested origami would be a better idea
261 - bit surprised that Libertas have stuck a slogan before their party name on the ballot paper. I had to do a double take before i realised they were actually an option!
Voted. People were coming in at a steady pace, about one a minute, with a short queue. One person was confused by the PR system, because they couldn’t vote for a specific candidate, and everyone but me complained about the length of the ballot paper - 12 candidates. The staff helpfully pre-folded it, four times, but some people still had problems getting it into the ballot box.
The only leaflet I’ve seen was from Labour, but No to EU have had a few posters up on bus stops. This is the heart of Sheffield Brightside though; seats don’t come much safer.
voted in kensington this morning at 830, only Euro elections. returning officer there said it had been very quiet, even by the standards of Euro elections.
257
They’ve been using boxes made out of some sort of plastic for a while in peckham. I remember last time I voted at the mayor elections that the plastic wasn’t completely opaque and you could see a small pile of ballots inside.
Might be a money saving or elfandsafety thing.
Wife and I voted on the way to work this morning about 8am - Oval - interesting point being that the polling station has moved from where it’s been the last 5 odd years cos the school it used to be at is having massive building works. Not much further to walk/cycle to on the way to work, but did cause the wife to ask ‘do I have to vote - where is it - is it going to be miles out of my way’ - Suspect that she might not have bothered if I hadn’t been going with her and wonder how many others that will affect.
And I totally agree with the comments about the London ballot paper - I only had to unfold it twice to be able to vote Lib Dem, and at that point there was still a fold covering the independants, UKIP and The Labour party. Can’t be helpful. Oh, and I also think that in London, of the minor parties, the Christian lot might do surprisingly well - high up the ballot - couple of almost well known names - people going ‘hmm… lets put morality back into politics’ (not that I neccessarily agree, just saying I can see it being a thought process)
Here in Manila it’s a hot and rainy day (as usual). No voting booths open at all however and no Labour candidates or posters visible. The populace is heartily sick of political corruption at the top and the creeping paralysis and poverty that comes in its wake.
1 expat PB’er hoping Gordon Brown’s head falls off and the entire PLP is swallowed by a giant toad.
I voted Lib Dem last week, by post. I was working abroad at the time of registration.
Just voted (@ 0930) in leafy South Bucks - usually solid Conservative territory. Two men sporting Independent rosettes outside plus one teller for the Conservatives who said voting was “slow”, a typical local election turnout so far. He thought
it would pick up later.
Coddington just outside Newark
I voted by post (UKIP) as I wasn’t supposed to be home today.
But walked my daughter to school and waited at the polling booth whilst my wife went to vote. A steady stream of people voting. About a dozen went in in the 5 minutes or so I was waiting.
Bright and sunny and cool here today.
269 - Probably more chance of that than them doing well.
241/261 - Yep - this expenses scandal is not really about “Parties” big or small. Which ever party was represented in the Commons would have had people fall foul of what has gone on - it’s a scandal about the boundaries of personal morality rather than political party.
As such it is not really the Parties that should be punished but those MPs who the electorate feel have fallen below the standards expected. And the time to do that is when those MPs are actually standing for election.
259 Mike S. You mean old blogger ??
260 SimonStClare. What do you think ??
http://luxurycarphotos.tripod.com/38rollsphantomIIIcabriolet.jpg
It’s really interesting reading people on here discussing their voting rationale today.
For one thing I respect every poster, everyone on here is politically engaged and savvy to the issues so their decision making is informed and properly considered.
When I am canvassing you can ask people how they intend to vote, how they usually vote and so on and the system we use then pidgeon holes them. But of course people aren’t really like that at all, one in six voters are still undecided as they reach the polling booth and much of the comment on here reflects that musing carrying on till very late.
Is there evidence on here as well of polling stations being slightly busier in generally Tory areas or is that just my imagination?
In rural Berkshire voting at my polling station where we are only voting in the Euro Election so far is about the same as it would be for a local election - which around here is about 30-35%.
re 247 Mike here in Birmingham we haven’t had metal boxes for years but instead plastic ones like the storage boxes you can buy in DIY shops. they are properly sealed but they just don’t look pukka. They’re also much smaller than the old metal boxes and I agree with the comment above that the Euro one is going to be nowhere near large enough.
Forget to say that there was on LD teller and a big LD presence on the ground delivering leaflets as I left for work and thepolling station. The LDs have high hopes of winning the council by election.
.
.
Augustus, In the last Euro elections the Conservatives got 36% of the seats (Ex N Ireland) with 26.7% of the vote. Not very proportional representation
First time poster, long time lurker, too. Voted in Newcastle at 8:30. It was quiet but there were quite a few names crossed off the register - could this have been the early-rising granny vote?
No canvassers to be seen.
The lady at the desk was reading a harry potter book.
Voted tory but the pencil did hover briefly over the UKIP box. Then I thought about bug-eye farage and common sense returned.
275 Jack W - are you sure it’s not really one of these?
http://www.naddervalleyclassics.co.uk/index.asp?section=5&page=127
Should have added,
voted for the Tory candidate in the county elections as the Councillor is a friend and someone I respect personally and politically. The ballot paper only had the candidates for Con/Lab/LD. No independents or smaller party candidates.
Good stream of people even in my single ward polling station in leafy eastern Hampshire. Tory and LibDem tellers jawing so happily voters had to interrupt them to have their polling numbers noted.
Euro ballot box is cramming up already with the enormous ballot papers.
Euro list features a Roman Party. As a classicist, I was momentarily tempted!
Have to echo others in thinking Labour has blundered by calling itself “The Labour Party”. It’s lost in the mulch. And, as noted earlier, Socialist Labour catches the eye first. Not that either gets any votes in this area.
Tories to increase majority on very well run Hampshire County Council. Euro votes around here will go Tory, UKIP, LibDem in that order. No one else, least of all Labour, will break double figures.
Voted in Luton at 8am, and was the 6th to do so.
283, no Jedi party?
I have been lurking for the best part of 9 months, but feel compelled to give my 2 cents.
I got back from university in the USA about a week ago, and was immediately struck by the complete lack of signboards for…well, anyone, really. I live in a village just outside of Maidstone, so it’s rock-solid Tory territory with a (un)healthy smattering of LDs at the local level. Despite the small size of the village, I just took my dog for a walk via the polling station and was surprised to see at least 15 people (all at least 40 or 50 years my senior) doing their bit for democracy. From talking to the clerks, they seemed to think turnout was notably higher than usual. Fortunately I’ve seen no evidence of UKIP anywhere whatsoever. Long may that continue.
281 ted. I think that’s Nick Clegg’s summer staff car !!
276 - Marcus, prior to becoming more active about 4 years ago, for many years I was one of those “undecideds” and would not really make my mind up until the privacy of the voting booth. This was in the late 80s and early 90s, and usually it was a choice between “heart” and “head” (tactical vs main choice).
Voted in South Bermondsey at 8:20. Turnout reasonably high - around 20 ticked off, more on their way in as I left. Hard to tell who that benefits nowadays, ward completely split in Mayor/Assembly/Council etc.
279 - I suspect that STV would stuggle to hit proportionality with only 75 seats across the whole country.
The only way to guarantee proportionality is to have a nationwide constituency and directly match seats to votes.
260
The Shooting Brake probably needed an outing - it would keep the waifs and strays in gainful employ
Has Huhne written an article on Clegg’s ‘Tories love kiddie-fiddlers’ approach to European politics?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/04/tory-anti-european-criminals
283. Right now it’s the Labour Party who could do with a Brutus. What they will probably get is a Romulus Augustulus though.
In Glasgow,there has been no campaign at all.No leaflets arrived from any party although I understand Royal Mail should have delivered something.
Pleasantly surprised to find a few people voting with me although no tellers.Clerk was telling everyone “just one cross” which was good after the 2007 shambles.
Voted SNP as usual.There are 6 Scottish MEP’s this time and the SNP might just squeeze a third seat.Labour way down the ballot paper which won’t help them.
I’m not voting (in South Manchester) until this evening, but my colleague who placed his vote in North Manchester this morning reports that voters are thin on the ground, with BNP members representing 20% of those who have so far made the effort. (Sample size = 5).
Hi all,
Well myself and my wife just voted in our South East Cornwall village which has only seen UKIP posters for the last 3 weeks. All parties apart from BNP leafleted though. Voted Green locally and UKIP in the Euros.Wife voted Lib Dem in Council elections but cant vote in Euros as she is Danish.
Voting brisk and busier than usual apparently.
UKIP and Lib dems strong down here and Labour will get slaughtered and are likely to lose their one South West Euro MP.
Back from doing the sparrow’s fart two hour 7.00-9.00) telling jobbins down here in deepest Surrey. Did exactly the same slot at the same polling station last year. I’d say, and confirmed by the Presiding officer, that turnout was significantly up on 2008.
Staffs Moorlands
Walked all 50 metres to local polling booth (need to sit down for a rest now, my heart is not used to exercise).. Euro/Council.
Steady stream I believe… Not quiet , not busy.
Given Euro Ballot pre folded: being a man had no difficulty in posting it
One local Conservative teller: no Labour/libDem or UKIP or anyone else.
Wife, youngest son and I all voted..
Gratifying to see long time lurkers joining in this straw poll. Seems to sadly confirm that we’re becoming a Tory clique in the main. I may be forced to join Ms Teather’s campaign team next year to help maintain a PBalance
279: Thats always going to be the case with only 70odd seats and regional areas. If you have a 2-2-1 split of seats for example there may be a large difference in votes case for those which have each 2 seats.
285. Didn’t see any Jedi. Clearly the force isn’t with us!
299, it’s an accurate reflection of politics right now. Lib Dems are making little headway and Labour has decided the optimal course of action to guarantee electoral success is to try and eat its own head.
301, that annoys me. I may just turn Dark Side.
299
I suspect that the Tory clique thing is just a reflection of the national mood at the moment and that once Cameron gets into power that will quickly swing back into something more neutral or independent. (I hope)
302
Snap (sort of)
Daniel Hannan has good piece in the Telegraph on the nutters in the various groupings
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/06/03/conservative_meps_will_be_in_more_respectable_company_outside_the_epp
What possessed Labour to make themselves fall even further down the ballot paper by listing as The Labour Party? L is far enough down the list without dropping below Scargill!
Labour need some serious new staff. A spell in opposition (as long as they are the main opposition) will probably come not a moment too soon for the party to avoid effectively dwindling to nothing.
Does anyone know membership levels for the main parties? I guess the Tories are easily the biggest but I guess the Lib Dems and Labour are close together? Or do you count the unions making Labour (falsely) huge?
Patrick@269: A similar picture here in suburban Tokyo. An almost universal lack of interest in who runs Britain’s local councils, and utter indifference as to who will represent Britain in the European parliament. A testament to the apathy and hopelessness engendered by years of corrupt misrule by Britain’s incompetent and sleazy Labour government.
299 - if you want to see what PB was like when its commentariat was balanced, read some of the threads from September to December 2004
306, once they officially change their name ZanuLabour they’ll be in real trouble
At 10.00a.m. voting has been very brisk here in Highcliffe Ward in Christchurch. This is a very strong Conservative Ward, so will be fascinating to see results.
(For the record, I’m a constant lurker).
I live in Little Hallingbury our area comes under Uttlesford Council which is VERY Tory. I spoke to a some of the people who were waiting and the expenses issue did pop up but they all were saying “we have to vote Tory to get rid of this government and voting for the others is a waste of vote”
On the future westminster vote people around my area seem to be saying that although they weren’t happy with Sir Alan Haselhurst’s expenses revelations - he’s paying back the gardening money so they will still vote for him. Labour are despised around these parts and neighbouring LibDem Bishops Stortford looks like its going to go Tory im told by our councillor
291 bono publico. I have some happy snaps somewhere of the Dowager Lady Jack W standing next to a 1930’s Roller shooting brake, not too dissimiliar to this one :
http://www.realcar.co.uk/GGP44ext20.jpg
Ian at 296 - you should take your wife back to the polling station (as it were). All EU nationals get to vote in the Euro elections.
306 - I think Lib Dem membership is around 80k. ISTR Labour membership dipping below 200k some years ago. The Lib Dems have a lot of people who to all intents and purposes are members, but due to a slight contrarian tendency, don’t actually join. (I am working to change this in my constituency!)
Slow start to voting in my local station, I hazarded a ‘busy then?’ to the nice lady behind the desk and she rolled her eyes as if to say ‘no, not really’ (I read facial expressions well).. looked at the list in front of her (addresses possibly) and there was a dozen or so entries on it, this was at 9am, so 6 voters per hour in the pre-work voting rush!!
If this is representative, I think the smaller parties are going to have a field day.
I think the Dan Hannan love-in is a bit weird.
He made a staggering speech against Gordy but that is about it. He’s one of the very class we have often complained about in that he hasn’t done anything else of substance in his life other than climb the greasy political pole with undue haste. From OUCA to MEP in a single bound and it took 9 years in Brussels/Strasbourg before anyone at all had heard of him.
It’s one of PBC’s odder obsessions.
Are any people going to the Count
tomorrow?
I had decided where i would put my cross well before going to vote but my wife was tossing up between yellow peril and greens even as we entered the polling station. she is normally a lib dem but i think expenses and the idea that euros are a bit different pushed greens forward. It is interesting with someone who makes up their mind at the last minute what things, generally impressionistic, can tip the balance. Again confirms my view that policies are overrated; Cameron has been shrewd to focus on impression not policy. also confirms that dear old Tony Benn is wrong, as always belss him, in saying its all about “ishoos”.
i have not seen a single poster in my very Tory area.
299 ….. and I’d had you down as a dyed in the wool Tory David, oh well.
It’s quite difficult to decide on any turnout trend, if anything it seems on the quiet side overall and could test the key +/- 30% level in the betting markets. Probably too early to call as yet - more comments please. Ask the tellers, etc what they think by comparison with previous local/Euro elections.
Tabman - “The Lib Dems have a lot of people who to all intents and purposes are members, but due to a slight contrarian tendency, don’t actually join”
316 - Its a bit sad how YouTube thrusts people into the public spotlight, only for them to fade so quickly.
Re. 298, was it St Mary’s Primary School in Leek by any chance?
I was there at half seven-ish, third person in. There was one Tory teller (local County Councillor/County council candidate). Then again, the last time I came across tellers from the other parties was in 03, when I was in a different ward.
321 - just like Gordo?
308 - When I was posting around the 2005/06 period it was more balanced so I guess it is just a reflection of the currently enthused political class.
I’ve been trying to see when I first posted and on what but it was proving annoyingly time-consuming! Pretty sure it was when I was at Dod’s. That company has now annoyingly (and illiterately) dropped the apostrophe.
311*
I must correct the comment that Bishop’s Stortford is currently LibDem! All county councillors are sitting Conservatives. The LibDems are a healthy second in most wards, but the only likely prospect for a gain is Mike Wood in Bishop’s Stortford East. He was within 200 of the Tory in 2005
You are right, Labour are almost extinct here, the key to any LD gains will be squeezing the Labour vote still further.
The LD’s are a growing force in Bishop’s Stortford. Our team have fought an effective and disciplined campaign. Not expecting massive gains, but our base is certainly growing. Mark Prisk (Hertford and Stortford MP) is becoming increasingly unpopular, he is rarely seen and always in Cornwall.
An area to watch for Lib Dem progress….
235 - Good, I can add to my position then :p
Just voted in tribal Labour area in Northumberland. A good 50 or so voted before me. Unitary here, so no county elections. Interestingly though, in the parish elections, for which there have been a lot of leaflets coming from the Lib Dems and Labour, Labour couldn’t even field a full slate of candidates. This in a seat which has been Labour since the 20s.
306 Perhaps the Postie will rename it the Aardvark party.
323 - Absolutely.
Although Hannan was always more likely to appear on Question Time.
Interesting snippet on Dizzy about server attack.
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/06/exclusive-cyber-attack-on-tories-and.html
306. David Roe
Does anyone know membership levels for the main parties? I guess the Tories are easily the biggest but I guess the Lib Dems and Labour are close together? Or do you count the unions making Labour (falsely) huge?
Rough figures based on what was reported last year would suggest:
Con 250,000 (unconfirmed estimate)
Lab 175,000
LD 65,000
312
nice!
(I’m a bit suspicious of that red RR badge though…)
Morning all
Reading through the posts, the impression I get is that, if PBers are at all typical, the Greens are going to do very well indeed, attracting both LibDem and Labour supporters. Interesting also that a number of posters seem to have decided at the last moment to vote Tory rather than UKIP.
Most boring anecdote of the day: I voted Tory in both the Euros and Locals. Turnout here in E. Sussex by 9am looked lowish, but perhaps too early to tell.
“What possessed Labour to make themselves fall even further down the ballot paper by listing as The Labour Party? L is far enough down the list without dropping below Scargill!”
The answer is simple. Those of us with long memories realise that L is for Labour, L is for Lice.
I live in strong Labour territory .At 7.25am I was the first to cast a vote at the station which covers an unusually large population for a single polling station in my part of Swansea.
No Council elections here in Wales.
Ceredigion - sunny and warm. Only activity by UKIP van with loud hailer - they may get some traction as N Wales Indesit factory closing with loss of over 300 jobs - all moving to Poland.
Already voted. Got to my polling station at 7:02am and as soon as I walked through the door I heard; “Well, if it carries on like this we can go home by lunchtime!”
I was the 5th person to vote.
I think turnout will be higher than expected, for three reasons:
(1) It has been 4 years since the last major national election; people are getting urgent to have their say
(2) Coverage on the news has been far more prominent than usual - linking Browns plight to the elections
(3) The expenses row is a big motivator in getting voters to the polls
I also know two people who are voting for the first time today.
Voted this morning at 7.15 in our local Air Cadets hut. Large portraits of HM the Queen and the Duke circa 1950 behind the election officers, which appealed to this old nostalgic!
About 10 people had already voted by the look of the tellers slip. Only one teller- a Tory.
My impression for what its worth. Significant late swing to the Tories.
The last 48 hours have been worse for Labour than any Tory could have dreamt. There is now a very strong “Labour Out” feeling and I suspect this has galvanised the Tory vote at the last minute which was wavering after Duckgate.
Whatever UKIP end up with I reckon they would have had 20-25% more (at our expense) if the election were held this time last week.
269, 307.
Lovely day in Florence, sunny, light breeze. Posters everywhere for what seems dozens of parties, on specially put up poster sites in every piazza and at intervals along main streets. Huge rallies held by main parties for the last few days, we had Berlusconi a couple of days ago, Franceschini (Democraic Party) last week. Voting is on Sunday and next Monday morning. There will be local party get togethers on Saturday evening I expect in the country towns and villages. Surprising levels of interest in what is going on in the Labour party, in the Italian press. Not heard yet from the rest of the family on what’s happening in WC1.
Twickenham, 7:15am, no sign of any party activists. Trickle of voters.
Ballot paper - ridiculously - about half-a-metre long, only about a dozen parties but the whole thing in 28pt typeface. The teller told me they only have one ballot box, same as always, and he couldn’t see how all the ballot papers are going to fit into it today. Neither could I - could this become a ‘hanging chads’ issue?
321. Is that a reference to Gordo Tim?
Just voted in the LibDem heartland of SW14. One orange teller outside: “very slow, about one person every three or four minutes”. 2 foot long ballot paper, polling staff have a long stick to push papers down inside the (metal) box. Also just found a classic LibDem ‘Good Morning’ leaflet through the door - first time I’ve had one of those for years - with a picture of La Kramer making the point that she didn’t claim for a second home.
Voted South Oxfordshire around 8.00 am. No-one else there, but was told voting had been “surprisingly brisk”
Also, entertaining chat with a busker off Park Lane. He was telling people they had to vote today. Asked me, said I already had. “How, if you don’t mind me asking?”
“Tory”, I said.
“Me too, this time” he replied. He then went off on one about thieving Labour politicians. “Yer expect the Tories to be a bit hooky…but this Labour lot - they should be charged with fraud!!”
319 - It must be said that I am nearly 30 and still haven’t voted for any party other than the Tories. I’ve been a Tory member for 6 out of the last 12 years. I think I may well have lapsed again since moving.
But people like Steen and the Wintertons disgust me and they are not that uncommon in the party and I can’t respect them. Some of the most unpleasant people I have ever met are ‘real’ Tories who think centrists like me are not ‘real’ enough. I have never felt entirely comfortable in the party as I am certainly left of the average Tory member (if not voter).
But the sandals and the EU (and Clegg) put me off the Lib Dems. But I can certainly see myself working towards getting rid of La Butler. I also think David Cameron is easily the best option for PM we have at the moment so I would not be against the Tories.
Bit of an essay this but I would say I was a Tory but I would never repeat my mistake of voting for the Tories as they were in 2001 (a shambles).
311
Wayne: We are nearly neighbours! I live in BS. “lib Dem” it is not though??? Central ward is, the rest is tory though I thought. Town council by-election in January had nearly 70% for the tory Gary Jones. (Nice man, came round my house to discuss issues after I emailed him!!)
BNP standing in BS West 1st time ever (I think) - bad sign. But my wife will turn out for a change to make sure the cretins don’t get in.
340 - In SW14 one of the staff was talking as though it would be possible to get extra boxes. Maybe this is when the cardboard ones are brought out?
Could be wrong but haven’t seen an expressed Labour voter so far.
Does anyone have the count ?
331 - Still very low historically then! Labour holding up better than I thought they were. I know a few Labour members who have lapsed. I guess these dismal numbers are not helping us get the best people into elected politics. A shame.
long time lurker
Voted at 8.20 in East Kilbride, about 10th person I reckon.
Voted tory in normally strong Labour area although SNP catching them up at last local/Scottish elections.
I’m just back from casting my vote at the Vibast Centre in Bunhill Ward of Islington South & Finsbury. I was the only voter in the place when I went. In the end I plumped for the Greens:
1) to give a general “up yours” message to the main parties
2) to make it clear that I want environmental issues addressed with seriousness (I support almost no specific Green policies, but do think that it is the single most important issue facing us in the next generation)
Judging by the number of last minute Green voters on here, they could be the big surprise of the day.
My council ward is currently shared between a LD and a Green - aren’t I the lucky one?
I really don’t know yet how I am voting for Oxfordshire CC.
Most of literature we have had has been from the Greens (at least 5 leaflets - how very environmentally friendly)
But no way could I ever give my support to such an incoherent and deluded bunch.
At the moment I am torn between spoiling my paper or voting Tory (who have put up some rabid evangelical bible basher which really puts me off…)
No signs of Labour in Wimbledon which surprisingly had a Labour MP until 2005(from 1997). Liberals are abound but generally the biggest vote seems to be apathy followed by Tories with the yellows in 3rd.
Labour Councillors were buoyant last night but I think that was bravado or stupidity!
Predict 09 Final Analysis
http://www.predict09.eu/default/en-us/state_analyses.aspx#united
Con 27.5% 24 Seats
Lab 18% 15 Seats
UKIP 15.5% 10 Seats
LiB 15.3% 10 Seats
Green 11.3% 6 Seats
BNP 4.8% 0 Seats
SNP 1.5% 3 Seats
PC 1.1% 1 Seat
Voted by post on rural Surrey/Hampshire borders. Voted Labour in the locals, probably doubling the Labour vote in the process! Voted against Gordon in the Euros.
353 - I’d be very happy with that result for most of my betting positions. Can we go nap on that now?
Antifrank. Green = Luddite communist ratbastard. You wasted your vote.
The SNP are the only party which has been visible on the ground here in Dunbartonshire (north of Glasgow). Little doubt they will out poll Labour across Scotland and pick up two of the six seats, some possibility they could grab third seat too if they poll more than three votes for every two Labour votes. Tories are generally still reviled and will be lucky to exceed 20%. Proposed “Independence Referendum” in 2010 will be facinating if SNP are biggest party and England votes Tory (again)!
Wielded the Pencil of Doom up here in N. Shrops. at about 8.15. Fair number of entries on the voting register already - plus an absolutely stunning girl Tory teller on the door. If she stays the turnout could be astronomic - among the male voters anyway.
IIRC when I first started voting the ballot paper had candidates names only - no party affiliations. You had to know who you were voting for. A very good thing IMO. Can someone remind me of when this changed.
Rural Oxfordshire, Conservative-held ward: generally good turnout. LibDems most active in leafleting by a long chalk.
356 - Thank you for your opinion, caller.
.
*** Betting Post ***With all the emphasis on the Euros and Locals, punters may have missed a quite sharp movement away from Labour in the SPIN GE market:
Con 359-364
Lab 207-212
LD 52-55
325
Andrew.
Can’t let that go, as it is drivel.
Mark Prisk is excellent, and this “always in Cornwall” stuff is total cobblers, really desperate stuff. He replied promptly, at length, and with courtesy and intelligence to a letter I wrote to him about the banking crisis. Judging by the local paper he is very active.
He also got a very large swing in 2005 increasing his majority from 5000 to >12000. So obviously very poorly thought of…
Any views on the BNP in Stortford? On the face of it it’s bizarre they would think they could save their deposits even.
353 - No Nick Griffin seat? I think that’s unlikely. Hopeful that will be the final result but no BNP in north west would be a hugely gratifying but unexpected result.
Any idea why the Lib Dems’ website is down? Could this be a rightwing cyberattack!
355 - BNP below 8% and Greens winning the Handicap would suit me just fine too.
Just went down to my polling station in wealthy West London. They said that they had been “very, very busy” so far. It reminds me of the mayoral election, where turnout was huge around here because people just wanted to get rid of Livingstone. I wonder if solidly Labour areas are apathetic at the moment?
361 - I may be tempted in to back Labour at that level. Only Gordon Brown will take them below 200. I can’t see Gordy leading Labour into the GE.
364 According to Dizzy both the Tory and LD sites were brought down by a DDOS attack - but not Labour’s. Hmm…..
I’ve just received this email from UKIP
Voting has only been going on for three hours and already hundreds are calling the UK Independence Party to complain that they were not able to vote for the party.
The problem is that Returning Officers…have been folding them so that the last two, three or four parties in alphabetical order are hidden when the first fold of the paper is opened. It thus appears that UKIP is not on the ballot paper.
UKIP has already contacted both the Electoral Commission and the Returning Officers on this matter.
We have had reports from Carlisle, from York, from Hampshire, Dartford and other places, showing that the problem is nationwide, not just an isolated incident.
UKIP is collecting the names and addresses of those complaining and will be preparing the grounds for a legal challenge to the election result.
*BETTING POST*-ish
I have to say I increasingly think “Labour to get more seats than UKIP” is a value bet at the huge prices (traded above 3 on Betfair). There seems a fair degree of confidence that the Labour vote will be between 17 and 19%, whereas UKIP could be anywhere from 10% to 20%.
I think UKIP will be hindered a bit when people have the choice of NO2EU (not prompted for in the surveys), by people telling pollsters acceptable UKIP when they mean unacceptable BNP, and by the higher than expected turnout made up of soft votes coming out to stop the BNP and voting for the mainstream parties in spite of it all.
By my maths, Labour are likely to beat UKIP on seats even if they tie on share of the national vote, and in that context, they’re probably the value bet, with the real odds closer to 50/50 on a conservative estimate.
316 In my case not an obsession. The YouTube clip brought him to my attention, and it’s nice to find a politician that can do polemics. But actually it turns out that I like his politics - as a centrist Tory (ref 344) you probably don’t.
I agree that he hasn’t got much hinterland or any experience of success out of politics, but then I think we do need some young people in politics, just not a whole political class who have never done anything outside politics.
Ref 344: if you are a centrist Tory, how come you never vote any other way in local elections then? I’m on the right-libertarian side of conservative thinking, and I frequently vote Lib Dem as they do sometimes have better local policies, also sometimes a Tory council will do something stupid and need a kicking. I take it as a given that any Tory council should seek to spend less money, and raise less tax, than a council of a different colour - but it doesn’t seem to work that way somehow.
364. No, it appears to be a left-wing cyber attack - the Tory site has been affected too according to Dizzy.
325. 362. Just name-dropping here. Mark Prisk and I were contemporaries at Uni. We were, respectively, chairs of Reading University Conservative and Liberal associations around 1981.
369 UKIP mopping up the rocket scientist vote then
363 - David Roe.
I think the Greens may stop Griffin getting the NW seat.
re 358 as per usual retrograde changes to our electoral system, it was a Labour offering of the early 1970s.
UKIP voters can’t unfold a piece of paper? Yes, that sounds about right.
**** Betting Post ****
I think there may be a little bit of value (ie 1 seat) in Sporting’s spread of Labour Euro seats, quoted at 11.5-12, where I expect them to win no fewer and probably no more than 13.
They are offering LibDems at 13.5-14 and UKIP at 13.0-13.5.
For the first time since about 1978 I have to be stuck in the office on Polling Day. I am getting withdrawal symptoms. Please keep the anecdotage rolling in. Interested to see so much evidence of split ticket voting; it’s going to make for a lot of arguments here next Monday!
372 - you’re right, Lib Dems and Tory sites both down. So this is Labour’s effort this time after postal votes in 2004?
371 - I’ve always voted Tory at local level because I have usually known the candidate and have liked them. In most cases, actively campaigning for them.
Even morons get a vote! (its the only way to explain how Labour is still in double figures)
Morning all
When I was more politically active than I am now, I used to volunteer for the early stuff - the “good morning” leaflets and first round of telling from 7am but not any more.
Quiet here in East Ham - I shall go off and vote in a while. The locals are supporting one Jana Janaygaram but I suspect her London-wide impact will be limited. I shall of course be voting LD.
Later on, I’m off to help in a by-election out east - in that Ward, they have a District Council by-election, County Council election and European election all going on today so plenty happening. Thought it might be a change from a London by-election.
It’ll be odd not having to stay up for the results tonight.
Two predictions for tomorrow:
Surrey CON hold
Cornwall NOC gain from LD
Have fun everyone !
375 - That would be wonderful. I think the Greens are nutty (the London candidate’s taxi excuse last year was possibly the most idiotic argument I’ve ever read) but certainly give me a Green over a Nazi any time.
5% turnout after 3.5 hours in my ward in Surrey which is very low at this stage(historically solidly Tory). Tory turnout (from our canvass) appears strongest so far but our canvass suggested 5% of Tories will turn to UKIP for the Europeans but stay Tory for County.
376. I think it came about because some smart-alec changed his name by deed poll to “Fred Liberal Bloggs” or something like that.
(early 70s would have been a Tory govt. so probably mid-late 60s)
Ahmadinejad has gone completely psychopathic in his attacks on Mousavi. In this country, smears are planned by backroom nobodies via emails and websites. In Iran, it seems the President makes up smears live on national TV!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/03/iran-president-election-tv-debate
I am intrigued by the turnout figures and tempted to have a wager shortly
There were early signs of a low turnout, particularly in areas where there are no council elections.
Just 52 people out of 2,255 voted in the first two hours at a polling station in Streatham, south London.
Traditionally half the voters go to the polls after 5pm, so allowing for this and for some postal votes it gives a projected final turnout of less than 25% in an area where it is normally between 30% and 40% at council polls.
My Prediction for the final Euro Result :
(Turnout 45%)
Con 32%
UKIP 18%
Lib 17%
Lab 13%
Green 9%
BNP 5%
Others 6%
358 - “Wielded the Pencil of Doom up here in N. Shrops. at about 8.15. Fair number of entries on the voting register already”
Remember that postal voters are pre marked on the register before they start so it can be misleading if you just catch a glance at the register.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/06/ballot-boxes-too-small.html
Apparently the ballot boxes may not be enough to accommodate the 3′ long voting ballots.
369 – In light of this revelation I have taken the precaution of teaching master StClare the secrete art of paper ‘un-folding’ it’s a bit like Origami but instead of a flapping stalk, one ends up with a sheet of A4.
I’ve got to admit I’m not up with all my EU knowledge but this comment was left on my Facebook to which I didn’t realise. Is it true?
“But then the Conservatives are allying themselves with anti-European, anti-semitic, anti-Islamic, anti-Romany, homophobic, nationalistic, Nazi-impersonating racist central European right-wingers rather than staying within the progressive right coalition they’re currently with. Sounds kind of like a supra-national vote for the BNP to me. Labour don’t deserve it, vote Lib Dem.”
Hehe, http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/germans-use-brown-video-for-hitler-spoof-200906041803/
393, there are people like that in the EPP as well, and others in other EU groupings. I think there’s a Dan Hannan blogpost about it.
Have just read the Hannan article linked to above, at http://tiny.cc/QiGWO
I can’t see who the “Polish homophobes” the Labour MEPs sit with are? Can anyone help me on that?
If Shaun is made Home Secretary, a good fightback from Labour on the “Tory renegade/has a butler” angle is that the reason he left the Tories was because William Hague punished him for voting AGAINST the repeal of section 28. I had certainly forgotten that William Hague stood with the homophobes even when he was leading the party.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/548341.stm
Good Morning.
I shall be stepping out to vote in a few minutes.
My area - Richmond, Surry - has local council voting as well as for the EU. I will give a full report of what I see of the turnout and the mood this afternoon.
It seems that the BNP had been busy overnight in Barnsley fly-posting. There were loads up at 7am this morning, but by 10am they seemed to have gone. Whether they were taken down by opponents or officially after complaints I don’t know.
Still, nice to know they wasted plenty of time last night though.
316/321
“it took 9 years in Brussels/Strasbourg before anyone at all had heard of him.”
Er, hardly. He was more high profile than almost any other British MEP and a long time contributor to both the Telegraph and many other magazines and journals.
Not sure why you hadn’t heard of him but those of us who are actually following EU politics have long found him a valuable source of information and insight.
393
Is Tim one of your friends on FB?
Read Dan Hannan in today’s Telegraph for more info
Turnout was slow and steady when i went to my polling station in Mile End this morning at 9pm. 4 person long queue at the registering table, and seemed to be a mix of young smartly dressed professionals, and old people. No tellers at all outside which was curious.
395 - And of course when IDS trooped them through the Lobby to support section 28, John Bercow stood up to him and Woodwards successor in Witney was nowhere to be seen.
396 I think you are going to be disappointed, Weathercock - there are no local elections in Richmond, Surrey, as that happens to be a London Borough despite the postal address.
396 - What’s the local council election in Richmond? Is it a ward by-election?
Reposted from last night for the delectation on PB regulars and lurkers alike. You lucky people can never get too much of my ARSE :
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE Polling Index that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR MORI, BIPEX and the JNN Political Index that for the Euro Elections gives :
Con 27% .. Lab 17% .. LibDem 17% .. UKIP 17% .. Green 7% .. BNP 7% .. Others 7%.
The above figures include the PISSED Jack W added SOAMES weighting.
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
only 23 people voted by 10.20 in my polling station in Angus but it in an area that tends to have a high postal vote registration. The only political presence was the SNP and coming through Dundee on the bus only say SNP boards at the polling stations. No Labour ones at all which must be a first.
Turnout 25 pc so far in
most marginal Lab ward
in Notts. Labour tellers
only at all polling stations
but one.
Just thinking back over the past 3 Euro elections:
99: Didn’t vote (had moved house and still registered in old place)
04: Respect
09: Green
Fairly typical for a member of the Labour Party then!
404. 3 way arse tie with not even a fag paper between the silver medal positions ?
391. The paper was folded into four, but I had to fold it again to fit it through the slot of the ballot box. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fill quite quickly.
Further update from Highcliffe (Christchurch). Upwards of 130 had voted by 11.00a.m.
Just voted in Holywood, Co Down. Euro poll only. No activists but steady trickle of voters. Voted Conservative & Unionist 1, then worked from the bottom (SF 7, DUP 6)up! Most literature from C&U, not much from others, but they went in the bin anyway!
The euro voting slips are too stupid big. In addition the local ones are going in the same boxes, which seems stupid to me.
411 - That is the only region I am really interested in. I’m fascinated to see how C&UNF fare.
I’ve just voted Labour (at 10:30am) in a polling station on the English-Welsh border just outside Chester, in the Welsh Euro region. The ward is held by a renegade independent but is in a relatively safe Labour constituency (Alyn and Deeside). The polling station was exceptionally quiet: no agents taking numbers and, by the looks of the register, only 10-15 people had voted so far. Labour and UKIP are right at the bottom of the ballot paper, with NO2EU very prominent right at the level of where the polling clerk folded the ballot paper.
388 HPS - Like you I’m interested in selling the turnout %. I see that over the past 24 hrs Sporting have increased thir spread by 2% from 30%-31% to 32%-33%. So far it seems a mixed bag, but a majority seem to be reporting a low turnout so far.
410: God’s waiting room in full shuffle to the polls then.
Re: 400 - I wouldn’t waste time and effort telling at a Euro-only election polling station.
IF you have a local by-election as well, that’s different.
The Hannan article is excellent! http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/06/03/conservative_meps_will_be_in_more_respectable_company_outside_the_epp
My house is opposite polling station in rural Leicestershire. Steady flow of voters - certainly higher than usual local election. People standing and talking outside polling station - usually they can’t get away quickly enough. Weather beautiful! Conclusion - turnout higher than I thought likely.
Just back from voting in Thurrock, typical docker area, labour leaning and BNP has made inroads recently. Very quiet campaign, no door knockers or posters, only one leaflet from BNP and UKIP.
Polling station quiet, asked the woman at the table about turnout she was surprised to be asked, said it had been good. On the list of voters who have voted there was a sheet of A4 with two columns, about 40 lines in each column. I was about the fifth one down on column 2 on page 1.
Looked to be at least five people coming in as I left.
One interesting point, the eastern region ballot paper is huge, over two foot long. Labour is at the bottom of the ballot paper under the fourth fold which was folded in so you couldn’t see it. They are very poorly positioned and I think they could lose votes because of this as you have to unfold the full paper to see them. Conservatives are up at the top of the ballot paper.
In the Isis division in Oxford, turnout was “not bad” according to the ladies manning the station. Interestingly, the Euro ballot was folded in such a way that UKIP and two other minor parties weren’t initially visible, although if people can’t work out how to unfold they probably shouldn’t be voting.
No tellers from any of the parties.
408 The GoHF. Photo finish indeed. Perhaps I should vote in the Euros to break the tie ?!?!
Nah …. Still “None Of The Above” !!
411 - Does NI have a different voting system from GB?
423 - yes, stv
Been around some of our polling stations in Havant in Hampshire. Turnout here seems incredibly low. Some of the tellers are reporting 25-33% of previous turnout.
423. Yes NI use STV and everywhere else uses d’hondt…
423 - Yes, it uses the far more sensible (IMHO) STV - once the people have got a taste for it… they want it for all elections.
Greetings from Ilford North! Here I voted (for the Tories!) at around 9am. A few other voters in the polling station with me, so there’s some interest here at least. One thing I did notice was that at the entrance to the polling station there was a PCSO (Community support officer), was friendly enough, said hello/goodbye. But never noticed a uniformed officer all the other times I voted (since 1997). The other thing I noted was that there were no party “tellers” sitting outside. Anybody else notice that? Also the ballot paper was truly massive! Had to fold it about four times to fit it into the box!
Apologies if anybody else came up with this, but: “UKIP if you want to!”
423 Yes….the Alternative Vote, i.e. you get to rank all the contestants in order of preference, just like the Miss World competiton. Lots of fun to be had by the voters with one of those!
427 Lennon - we must lunch!
By the way, we (in England) get one vote for the euros, right?
431 - yes
.
.
The police used to routinely patrol polling stations during an election. Police, You remember them, trained law enforcement officers.
If you think the ballot paper is too long, I suggest you write to the leader of the party you support, and ask them not to stand next time.
430 - Sounds good - although probably not today…
431 - Indeed - as my wife said ‘all that length of ballot paper and I’m only allowed one mark on it - bit of a waste really’
345 Jon C
We are certainly neighbours!
I am Andrew Lewin, town council candidate in the Feb town council by-election! Which i still maintain I lost purely because the snow storm seriously depressed turnout!
Good to see a BS presence on here, even if it may be slightly Tory leaning.
Matt Harris would have made an excellent, young town councillor-shame he lost to Mr Jones
433 - Add impartial and helpful to the public to memories. Unfortunately, not now
434: So I can vote for ‘your decision’ and ‘UK pensioners party’ instead? Oh joy, oh bliss…
381. Re 348 David Roe.
Indeed as the party membership declines it will be harder to find talent. It got me thinking about why membership has declined so much given that 50 years or so ago membership of the two main parties was over 3.5 million. I found this paper.
http://www.liv.ac.uk/ssp/research/Political_Participation.pdf
I haven’t read it but there is a graph of membership 1964-1997 on page 12 and clearly you can identify critical points for both the main parties.
For the Conservatives it was the Heath Government (EEC and failure to deal with the unions?)and continued since with a noteable further drop during the last years of Thatcher (Poll Tax, EU, her own Defenstration). For Labour the critical period was when Foot was in charge and failed to counter Thatcher. They revived marginally under Blair before the rot set in again (not on the graph but derived from the current figures), primarily I suspect after Iraq. As for the Libdems theirs has been a steady decline.
434 et al. - The main reason the ballot paper is so long is because all candidates of all parties are listed in full. Quite pointlessly, because people are only voting for a party. The papers need only have party names listed. If anybody is bothered enough to worry about it, a full list of the candidates could be pasted up inside the polling booth.
Oh, and does anyone know which day they are voting in Latvia - strongly suspect that the impending (suspected) currency devaluation wont be till after EU voting has closed.
Just voted in Lady Bay ward, Rushcliffe. Green teller on the polling station, voting seemed up on 2 years ago (and turnout was c 45% for the Borough election then). Greens hold the two Borough seats in this ward, they are also the County (2 member division) and top 2 Euro candidates for the East Modlands, so I suppose if they can’t organise here they can’t organise anywhere.
My bet is turnout will be up.
In my polling station, there were two ballot boxes. One for the County Council and one for the Euros. That will certainly help at the count.
439 - jsfl, the reasons are primarily social and sociological. We are no longer a nation of joiners; most people do things in an atomised fashion behind closed doors - the TV, the internet and long non-standard working hours see to that.
As a political activist with a working spouse, a demanding long hours job, regular travel and two young children I ‘m sure I’m very much in the extreme. Most activists I know are retured, child free (before or after) or have no family ties.
440: quite the reverse. You are voting for a person, who happens to use the “party” as shorthand for his policies. Removing the candidate name from the ballot enshrines the party in the constitution, which would be wrong. (and is incidentally why I am against PR)
I would rather remove the party than the name, then local activism would have more clout, and independents would have a better chance.
Just voted in North Ayrshire. Used to be rock solid Labour in this bit of it, but we now have an SNP constituency MSP and today there was no sign of any activity from anyone but the SNP - posters and polling agents.
Labour activists seem to have disappeared.
Inappropriate ballot boxes for PR voting papers, is purely an English problem I think. Scottish, Northern Irish, (and probably Welsh) Returning Officers have installed new boxes with wider slots.
Drove past my polling station this morning. Saw a couple of SNP guys and no one else.
445 - So when I just voted, which of the eight candidates against the party name did I vote for? For this type of election (and I agree it’s a cr@p type of election, but it’s the only one we have at the moment) only party name is needed.
Interestingly, for the first time in my memory, no armed polis at the polling station!
439 jfsl, have a look at a book called “Bowling Alone” which analyses this “atomisation of society” thing in some detail. It affects all sorts of voluntary assoiations, not just political parties.
*** NEW THREAD ***445. No offence, but that is utter nonsense. Candidates in this election get elected based on the performance of their party, not them individually.
If you want to increase local activism and independent candidates, then STV offers a much more attractive proposition.
The ballot that I voted on this morning came unfolded, so I think the folding is something being done on individual polling stations. They tore it off a massive pad.
So I had to fold it myself to get it in the ballot box.
London consituency.
There were plenty of people about at my polling stations as I was there, just after it opened about 7.05.
439 -Interesting chart. Not sure if it takes into account the role of the SDP in the 79-83 period or whether the Liberals Party is counted purely as the Liberal Party and the SDP ignored.
404 - Could the ARSE be persuaded to shave those 17%s to 16.9%? For betting purposes, naturally.
Noon voting in Crewkerne, Somerset and the polling clerks report that turnout has been quite good especially considering that there are a large number of postal ballots this time.
There were a good number of people voting while I was there.
Just voted in Guildford for county and euro elections. Nobody else there but were told we were 150th approx. This was at 12.30pm
Just been round a number of the polling stations in Whitehaven low turnout 6 or 7 % in many places could not find one over nine. The BNP have been working a number of wards (we have Cumbria county elections) they seem to have among the lowest turnout. The postal votes were good with 70 to 80 % returned