So he survives - but for how much longer?
June 5th, 2009
And what about the Euros and now the Norwich by election?
We knew this was going to be one helluva political day and so it has been. Right through the night to Browns late afternoon press conference when news came through of Caroline Flint’s resignation.
There’s an interesting story there that we haven’t heard the last of. She gave Gord a strong endorsement last night just as James Purnell was doing his worst - why just nineteen hours later is she leaving the government?
What is it about Brown and women? There seems to be problem there which has the potential to explode. Flint’s accusation that Brown uses women ministers as “window dressing” is going to stick
And what about the Ian Gibson resignation as an MP and the by election? Another tricky electoral minefield for team Brown to negotiate.
Finally, of course, nobody knows how awful Sunday EU election results are going to be for the party. Looking at the way the local results came out it could be bloody.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Nearly first again.
Fraser Nelson got on Gordon Brown’s nerves!!!!!!!
This is going to get a lot worse
7 peers attending Cabinet
2 people catapulted into the Lords
Brown talks democratic renewal and then kicks the voters in the teeth
the PLP will not wear it
Please, Mike, change this picture!
Reposted from previous thread;
Clearly a superb set of results for the Tories. They have done strongest in the Midlands and Lancashire, exactly where all the key marginals are! They’ve also given the LibDems an absolute caning in Somerset and Devon. The lessons for Clegg are clear, damage limitation against the Tories and go all out against Labour as there are big gains to be had. Many of the West Country LibDem MP’s will be feeling a bit nervous tonight!
It’s really difficult to see how much worse this could be for Labour. They’ve lost some bedrock Councils and the reshuffle is showing the paucity of available talent to them. Gibson’s revenge is likely to be a substantial Tory win in Norwich North, probably on the same day as Glasgow NE? Worst of all for Labour it looks like Brown is going to cling on like a malignant limpet until May 6th. I cannot begin to express the utter contempt I have for David Miliband, he could have ended it all today but for the third time he has chickened out of confronting Brown! I wonder if Brown has some serious dirt on him! It is often said that the Tory Party never forgave Portillo for not deposing Major in 1995, how will Labour treat someone who has bottled it 3 times?!
An incredible day for all sorts of reasons!!!
Flint top story on BBC ticker
Caroline Flint: Brown treats women as “window dressing”
I guess Glenys Kinnock will be the first Kinnock in 1000 years to attend Cabinet.
Caroline Flint - apparently just said GB just treats women as window dressing
I’ve just got in from work- good job Chris Kamara isn’t commentating on this, I don’t think that he’d still be alive;)! Unbelievable:)!
The Sunday Papers are going to be fun fun fun
Exclusive interviews with Flint, Purnell, etc, I wonder?
Caroline Flint accuses Gordon Brown of treating her like “Female window dressing”
And Martin Day, will he be ok with Glenys Kinnock becoming a Peer and Europe Minister
After 18 of 34 Councils:
Conservatives up 157 seats
On course for 300 gains?
this is getting more and more bizarre by the minute
Flint really should have kept quiet yesterday
Beeb says the Tories have ‘made some gains’…..
Caroline Flint should have went last night when she had the chance. Too late complaining now.
But Gleynis Kinnock minister for europe - Says it all really!
Boulton saying Gordo lied about answer to his question about number of women attending cabinet.
3. Brown mentioned that there would be more ministerial appointments to the Lords later…
Slow motion? This is a car crash in real time!
We need to take to the streets soon if this continues its not on especially with these unelected members swanning in.
Caroline Flint protesteth too much - she was the one that did a fatuous ‘photo-shoot’ fashion feature for the Guardian…
On the peerage question - it’s a shame that Andrew Adonis was never found a seat in the Commons, because I think he’s probably the best ministerial appointment Brown has made today.
Over 50% of Lab councillors have lost their seats:
101 seats retained
144 seats lost
Boulton: Flint has made a fool of herself…
The Queen has got to step in NOW!!! For the good of the Country.
14 - I think it’s pretty clear that yesterday Brown’s allies were wandering around offering people promotions if they would come out and publicly back them, and has now stabbed them in the back.
Will they let the taxi for Brown through the gates of Downing Street?
I fear for the figurines in No10, and the Nokia’s? Will we please think of the Nokia’s!!!
1. “Nearly first again.” From the Gordon Brown school of truth telling?
3. Have to agree. Brown is in severe danger of losing the PLP. The danger signs are there - Sheerman and others are on the ball.
Is he capable of listening?
22 - how many are they defending in total?
Flint for stalking horse
Well, I would would rather dress my windows with the Riga blondes than any woman on the Labour benches.
This 250 benchmark thing; is it just a random number the BBC throws in front of the Tories every year. Because it was the same last year, and the year before it was 300. Both times it was broken comfortably…
I think my love of politics and current affairs is being tested to the limit today. How I am meant to mentally process all these ministerial resignations, Ian Gibson resigning as an MP, the English Democrats winning the Doncaster mayoralty, the Lib Dems coming 11th in Hartlepool and all the county council results I have no idea.
A bit unfortunate for Adam Boulton to refer to James Purnell as “the suicide bomber from last night”.
I normally turn off the radio wheneevr a govt minister comes on. But in the car on the way back from work I thought I would listen to Brown as it’s kind of historic. Thought he did OK for about 2 minutes, but then he just starting basically lying about the economy, and he WILL NOT admit he did anything wrong. What a hateful little turd he is.
I think I got about 10 minutes in before I turned it off and put Green Day on, very loud.
PLEASE GO GORDON AARRGGGHHH
BBC still trying to spin the govt line…amazing.
Almost saying that GB is in a better position now than yesterday.
Sky more balanced
24. glittergirl, bugger an unelected queen its up to us the people to take to the streets!
29. 500-ish.
FPT: Afternoon all; I’m just back from the count in Cambridge where I ended up 60 votes behind Labour (about which I’m quietly pleased, even if we’re some campaigning years from victory in that division!)
Meanwhile, out in the real world all of heaven and earth seems to have broken loose, and be flapping about in the wind.
How people can think we’re looking at a 7 seat Tory majority at the next election I don’t know. The way the Tory vote has held up is remarkable. North Tyneside, for goodness sake! And now Flint has gone…
7 Well Flint certainly makes the window pretty attractive. But I doubt that Brown has bought himself more than a few days - if the Euros are as bad as the locals (and I expect them to be worse) then the PLP can’t possibly fail to administer the coup de grace on Monday….can they?
9. “GB just treats women as window dressing” as opposed to John Prescott who…. (complete as you will). Hell hath no fury like a tap dancer scorned!
Both Brown and Flint have gone mad.
It’s obvious that Brown’s henchmen offered Flint a Cabinet role if she backed him; this was upgraded to “sitting at Cabinet as Europe Minister” and she told him to sod off mid-press conference.
But Flint herself should have known better. If I was her, I would have insisted on getting it on tape, from Gordon himself, before I accepted.
End of Flint’s ministerial career IMO.
End of Flint’s ministerial career IMO.
He has indeed shown he can’t work with women. But he has also shown two fingers to backbenchers by giving life peerages and government posts to the likes of Sugar and Kinnock, plus “First Secretary of State” to another peer, whilst snubbing Harriet Harman who was elected by the party as a whole.
How can the party let him get away with this?
Do you think that the Tories are bribing the cabinet to keep Brown there?
Flint’s statement was pretty devastating IMO.
Any news from Nottingham yet?
All the Lords shows utter contempt for the commons.
Hain back shows contempt for everyone
Switched on the telly and Flint is now gone.
un-effing-believable.
Cannot stand the woman but reading her letter she has taken aim and kicked Brown fair and square in the bollocks, and then stuck her stilletto in to the residue
26 Taxi for Gordon Brown? An ambulance would be a better choice of vehicle, preferably one with some decent restraints in the back. The mans gone bonkers.
This weekend is going to be fun.
Anyone got a link to the Flint letter in full?
Lib Dems moderately down also, in terms of both seats and councils. Quietly amusing.
Lord Mandelson has an enhanced role with a new ministry which merges Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform and the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills.
Meant to make up for not being Foreign Secretary but combining those two?
Anyone who thinks this is astonishing has not been paying attention. Brown is a tool. He;s shown it constantly. This is merely par.
47:
Results so far: Conservatives 33 seats, Labour 11, Lib Dems 7, independent candidates 5. Still to be declared: 11 seats.
http://twitter.com/NottsCC
Need 34 to take control of the council, I think.
47 - No, still waiting for Hucknall and Sutton in Ashfield North, Tories need one of the 4 seats avaialable. They can’t realistically win anything else still to declare, although Labour have lost 4 safe Mansfield seats to Ind candidates. a pathetically slow count in Notts.
Jowell as Paymaster General, hope she asks what she is signing this time!
52 - So how much of Govt is now controlled from the House of Lords?
54. Thanks David. Should do it before six then, hopefully?
The Minister for Europe has gone and been replaced in the “reshuffle”, and we haven’t even had the Euro Election Results yet!
What would the Beeb have been saying if this had been a Tory Government, I wonder?
I’m disappointed that Lord Scricket-Ground didn’t become Sports Minister.
Not sure if he could get away with it, but Cameron should use this line at PMQs (if Brown’s still there):
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3673543/the-eunuch-prime-minister.thtml
Sky picking up on the number of Lords in the cabinet.
52. Who was the last PM to have so many peers in cabinet? The Marquess of Salisbury??
GB has hung himself on so many fronts with that press conference.
Caught out lying more than once, deluded, attacking a hack, ‘I’m not arrogant but’ - the list is endless.
I will remember where I was when Gordon committed suicide.
57 - 7 Lords apparently…
Obama has called Brown:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=TX-PAR-IIL51&show_article=1
Is the Heavenly Father calling the World’s Savior home?
Obama has made a call to Brown…
Is the Heavenly Father calling the World’s Savior home?
Lord Mandelson has an enhanced role with a new ministry which merges Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform and the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills.
So Brown has just put back together the department he split up 2 years ago?
Genius!
Boulton saying so many Lords in the govt slap in face for Commons and so much for strengthening democracy.
Are Alan Sugar and Lord Mandelson going to clash as regards who does what?
65. … a leaping??!!
I am more or less prepared to go skint at EVENS if Brown stays and shortens.
65 - Plus more to come!!!!
65. 7 lords? And this is the guy Rod is pinning all his hopes on constitutional reform on!
I see the Tories have won the North Tyneside mayoral election with a 4000 majority. Bad news for Alan Campbell MP in Tynemouth.
2. Fraser Nelson is odious.
It would just be so much more sensible if Sky gave PB it’s own lobby correspondent - can’t think of a place where you’d get a faster or smarter newsfeed/comment resource.
Gordon Brown, is there an adjective in the english language that can do justice to that man’s mental problems?
Can’t wait for Fraser’s next article. Heh. if he can type, what with having his hands full with Gordon’s nuts.
I think his response to Fraser Nelson’s question will be remembered..another Brownie
After watching that excruciating press conference one can only appeal to the PLP to get rid of Brown for the sake of the country. The man has clearly lost it.
Just in from work - wtf?!!!!
Labour in collapse and a Kinnock brought in?!
Whats next, Neil Kinnock as minsiter for planning a generation in opposition?
Flint is in, FLint is out, Flint doesn’t want to be a minister on the condition that she shake it all about?
Hoon gone, Beckett off Caravanning, McNulty gone
Utter chaos at the heart of government, its SO over for Labour
51. “Lib Dems moderately down also, in terms of both seats and councils” Yes, with only the odd hiccup - how come the Liberals have won so many seats in Cumbria this year? Surely a natural Tory gain?
Tories up 16 seats on Kent CC with around 7 left to go - including the two very strong Labour seats in Dover.
75 - I take it odious means “Taking the PM’s knackers as a prize for owning his arse”?
Going, going, going, going , going… I had to listen to 5L on terrible MW for a while and missed the Flint resignation. However listening to Brown’s cadences on the radio: broken, halting, flagging,hesitant, exhausted. He has alienated the female voters (cf Tony Blair):Labour are third in the locals, and probably fourth in the Euros. This cannot last 72 hours. Brown sounds like Yesterday’s Man for the 21st century…
So Labour finishes on just 16 seats on Lancashire County Council. That’s incredible.
59. “The Minister for Europe has gone and been replaced in the “reshuffle”, and we haven’t even had the Euro Election Results” Nice symmetry with the Minister for Local Government?
So what is the net seat movement then? I don’t trust any of the main news outlets. They’re not keeping up to date.
Andrew Pierce: Brown is Houdini
Here’s the Tory PPC for Norwich North:
http://www.chloesmith.org.uk/
87, I wonder if it’ll be mirrored at the GE.
OMG, Telegraph man saying Gordo pulled off a great escape, clever reshuffle, etc, etc…
Pierce as an arse.
Cam statement shortly
I want to congratulate Mike Smithson, Morus and Co., for keeping PB going on this most momentous of days.
How many calls on PB so far today, Mike?
92. I cannot believe that - the voters i have spoken too cannot believe he is still in the job.
One wonders whether the journos want Brown in because it will be a slaughter?
Why isn’t the Caroline Flint story headlining the BBC?
What she said is pretty strong stuff.
Christ, Flint really has stuck the knife in.
‘Why isn’t the Caroline Flint story headlining the BBC?’
It is.
89
RodCrosby
Not Houdini: an ex magician.. on C5.. The Mentalist. Perfect description.
80. I agree. He did well as PMQs this week but this press conference has undone that and more. I think the language Flint’s statement is devastating, though would have had more impact had it been delivered before her statement of loyalty. Enough lines there for the papers to get their teeth stuck into. I admit I laughed when he said Glynis Kinnock was the new Europe Minister. I though he had just plucked the name out of the sky. We should be lucky it’s not Susan Boyle.
Fraser Nelson and Rentoul on BBC.
I am very fearful for the economy now. Seriously. The internat. sharks will circle. Soros vs Sterling…
I think these events could reinforce Brown’s position as Labour leader, as most of those resigning and calling for him to go are Blairites, with the possible exception of Fisher and Flynn. Even if there is a leadership contest Gordon could then restyle himself as the champion of Labour against the Blairites, something reinforced by his appointment of Glenys Kinnock to replace Caroline Flint. In such a scenario and with most of the cabinet behind him he would win and have a mandate, so the recent turmoil may actually prove of longer term benefit.
fraser on bbc news
And Mike don’t forget that despite having 360 odd MPs we now have more peers in the cabinet since practically the 1950s.
Not so much a GOAT but government of all the cronies.
103
Benefit to whom? Certainly not the country and not even the Labour party.
With Brown in charge at the next election they will be lucky to stay ahead of the Lib Dems.
Anyone want EVENS Cameron/Brown for Party Leaders next GE ?
105
No more “tory toffs”
Just
“labour lords”..
GOADs. Government of all the Dead.
**** Betting Post ****Having pushed his Cabinet re-shuffle (through and even this seemed to be very hard work), Brown has effectively now locked in most if not all his would-be leadership challengers.
Possibly the worst value bet around just now,imho, is PP’s 1/4 on Brown ceasing to be PM prior to 31 August, this bet was almost even money last night when he appeared to be in far greater danger immediately after the James Purnell resignation.
Much better value, it would seem is the same bookie’s odds of 8/1 against him ceasing to be PM during the 3 months Sept - Nov 2009. On the one hand, there could well be a further move against him by the PLP during this period, on the other, if there is to be a General Election prior to the generally assumed date of May 2010, it is likely to be sometime within this 3 month time slot. Help yourself to a nice bit of value here - “bit” being the operative word as the nice Mr Power will only allow you around £12.80 worth.
Ed at 10 your comment at 10 made me laugh -
“Good job Chris Kamara isn’t commentating on this, I don’t think that he’d still be alive;)! Unbelievable:)!” I can just see that
103 Are you serious? How many party members do you know who would vote for Gordon in a contest? Because in my CLP I think the answer is around 0.
103
Are you serious?
Flint’s statment looks like a killer because it’s so plausible.
Hain: “Brown is a towering figure in British politics.”
In the middle of the storm over troughing he appoints a woman from the biggest family of troughers in Europe. Glenys Kinnock apparently went on more jollies last year than anybody else in the Brussels swamp. That is like winning the competition for biggest mass murderer in the Khmer Rouge!
103
Read Labourhome and get into the real world.
Why do none of you ever comment on my very old tip that The LibDems will be the next official opposition?
My edit facility has disappeared!
Fraser “Gordon will carry on with every kitchen knife in Britian in his back”
115 - So Pete, hows that Think Tank getting on? Found an office yet? Hired any staff? Published any papers?
114. Would have been more credible if she’d said it last night, though?
115 - Towering Inferno more like.
No looking good for NPMP,
http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/home/your_council/councilelections/electionresultsbydistrict09.htm?district=Broxtowe
118 - Old rightie: you could be rightie!
Yes, where is the edit function? haven’t seen it all day.
123 - Coffee laughed into the keyboard on that one, Habib.
Cameron,
“I am seen more ordered riots, than Gordo’s reshuffle”
Doesn’t matter how damaged Flint is- that quote is lethal.
PfP and Prodicus-The edit facility is not working.
Flint’s letter
129 (cont) - Where is Fiddling Farmer Tupac and a comment about a Bullingdon night out?
Not sure what planet the Telegraph local elction blog writers are living on. They have announced a short while ago that Labour have lost control of Nottinghamshire to NOC but remain the largest party.
Er, no.
Currently the Tories are on 33 seats, Labour on 12 an Lib Dems on 8. Whatever happens now the Tories will be the largest party (if they don’t take overall control)
Are those figures correct??? 23%?? surely lower?
117. It’s now a question of willpower, bottle and blinking.
Are the members of the cabinet / the PLP / the Labour movement at large prepared to undertake the moves necessary to shift Brown if (as appears to be the case) he has no intention of even thinking about stepping down.
If not, he stays.
127
disabled to save bandwidth I guess. Must be a record for posts…900+ last thread
122. Gin - Yes but the point is i have always thought she has been used as Female window dressing! If she thinks otherwise she is seriously misguided! Her rude, abrassive and abrupt style irratates at every turn!
He said primarolo and winterton were attending cabinet. As what? Children and families for Primarolo and Employment for Winterton? Sounds the most plausible right?
Brilliant comment from Fraser Nelson about Brown being Terminator-like in his persistance. They cannot be killed.
Anybody got any info on why the English Democrat candidate won the Doncaster mayorality?
128 - New keyboard is in in the post
131 - OK, thanks, Me.
And congrats all round for keeping PB going today. Quite amazing.
141 - Yes Archroy, there has been some serious allegations/bugger ups in the Children’s services department.
Cammo live on Sky… but not on BBC. Oh, he’s just said he’s doing them second. Hahahaha.
132. Pathetic. Good riddance to her, Blears and Purnell. Careerist nonentities.
notts is very close. recount in last seat the tories need to win to have control. lib dems and independents doing fine, labour down 20 seats.
She should really have waited and calmed down a bit before writing her resignation note..
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/39Just-female-window-dressing39-.5340489.jp
She just sounds like a ‘bunny-boiler’…
ConHome twitter claims Con have taked control of Notts.
118 oldrightie - probably because the betting markets don’t regard this as even a remote possibility. The spread for LibDem seats at the next GE is currently in the high 50’s. To have any chance of becoming the official opposition, they would need to win 150+ seats and even this assumes that Labour won fewer than this number and that their losses did not become Tory gains.
Toenails stays on message from the bunker.
A cautionary note to any Tory activists planning on cracking open the bubbly.
“While they’re likely to end the day having won overwhelmingly and having taken a handful of councils, their projected share of the national vote is not as good as it might have been.
They also know that there are swings in politics and that, having had a bloody few days, Gordon Brown has an opportunity to reassert himself.”
144 - Is that bugger-ups in a literal or metaphorcal sense?
Is it really true that Ainsworth is so respected by the generals? And talk about a scraping the bottom of the barrel Cabinet. A lot of deadbeat re-treads. Lady (Margaret) Prosser, a good, old-fashoined, honest Labour sort, really let her feelings be known about Suralan’s appointment.
Unbelievable - BBC running with old footage of the ban Boris calls ‘my cousin’.
re 119 Pfp I think Mike might have turned it off to cope with the demand
Is this now like Michael Palin in Monty Python and the Holy Grail gradually having bits of him chopped off
146. How can you call Purnell careerist?
150, good. If Pravda help him stay on as PM, the Tories will get a crushing victory at the next election.
I heard Huhne say that the local elections were a bad result for the Conservatives and a good one for the Lib Dems….
Clearly (net terms) the Conservatives gaining 6 Councils and 172 councillors is bad and LDs losing 1 council and losing 23 councillors is good ….. according to Huhne.
Any other examples of the worst spin on these results?
BBC figs
http://tinyurl.com/q2awoe
155, John Cleese, surely?
144 - but the English Democrats. Really? The took advantage of this. They got 17,000 first preferences? What happened to the Lib Dems? Its remarkable.
151 - I wont comment, lest OGH gets into trouble.
However this link might give you an idea.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/7923188.stm
‘Female Window Dressing’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2009/may/10/caroline-flint-uk-politics
And that is a bad thing ? ;- )
Has anyone seen Margaret Beckett’s resignation statement? Did she claim that she was “female window dressing” as well?
150. A handful of councils? They have completely wiped Labour out?
162 Mutton ‘window dressed’ as spam
Interesting interview with Brown: PM Ruffled, Seeks to Muffle Reshuffle Kerfluffle
163 - inspired!
How do the English democrats have a large enough activist base in Doncaster to pull this off? Can anyone explain. I know about the dead children but why did the outrage benefit the Eng Dems and not anyone else?
Ian Gibson said “I don’t know what I’ve done wrong. Helping your family seems to me to be a good thing”
Yes Ian. With your own money…….
2 gains in Huckanll, TORY GAIN NOTTINGHAMSHIRE!!!!!!!!!
ARSSE verdict of Ainsworth: “Feckin imbecile. If Brown thought he could get Tony Benn is as Defence Secretary to show his contempt for the Armed Forces, I`m sure he would have tried.”
5 gains so far for the Tories in Northamptonshire
Do elected mayors (lewisham, hartlepool, doncaster etc) act as the council’s executive instead of the group leader of the largest party? Does this system work? Where can I read more about it?
171, also from ARRSE:
Bob Ainsworth is a cretinous minnow. But most of the cabinet are…
Such a shame - Hutton did seem to have a good grasp of the job.
169 - It was with his own money. If you buy a house and sell it at a reduced amount you, er, lose money.
168 - I think Peter Davies ran a very long term, well thought out campaign. He knew the area, and what buttons to push, and his outrage seemed quite genuine.
“Gordon Brown’s fate could be sealed by Monday, say rebels
(…)One MP involved in the email plot said fewer members were declaring themselves against Mr Brown than they had hoped, saying: “It’s a trickle not a flood.”
(…)Another senior backbencher who wants to remove Mr Brown said he was “depressed” and now believed Mr Brown will survive.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5454255/Gordon-Browns-fate-could-be-sealed-by-Monday-say-rebels.html
Tories gain Nottinghamshire, yet BBC calls it for “NOC” on their website. Are the beeb incompetent, biased or what?
Dizzy found a great article,
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZI9ZC-oL5KQ/SikZusDgcWI/AAAAAAAAE5Y/7jUr2qUZvZM/s1600-h/sugarletter.jpg
Is Mandy now the first unelected Deputy PM?
179 - I would say both!
Thought I’d take a stroll through Labour Home and Labourlist to see the coverage. Well, you could shoot a cybercannon through Labour Home and rest assured you wouldn’t hit anything/anybody. Dead as a doornail.
Labourlist is a bit more lively, and somewhat entertaining; mostly a lot of teeth gnashing and hair pulling. Worth a visit.
178
Of course Gordon will survive. He has not destroyed the labour Party fully but is getting on with the job.
181 - In effect, also he is Lord President of the Council which is traditionally the post of the Leader of the House of Lords.
176. Alex. No, if you sell it on the open market at a reduced price, you lose money. If you sell it your daughter at a reduced price you are are giving her the gain including the CGT he should (could?) have paid.
185 - Has Gordon just given him every grand sounding title he could find?
184-
Are there any estimates as yet of the turnout for the Euro vote? In a number of the council elections, the turnout was >40%, but I guess people were voting for individual local candidates whom, in many cases they know, rather than faceless individuals representing an entire region of the UK.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5454078/Will-his-bunker-mentality-finally-destroy-Gordon-Brown.html
179. Given that the county council website has it still in NOC it is hardly an outrage.
Bob Ainsworth. The least attractive voice in Parliament.
they’re peddling “we need to listen and learn” again….
186 - If you sell it on the open market at a reduced price you are giving the buyer the gain including the CGT he could have paid. It doesn’t matter who you sell it to - you still lose money.
173 - James, hope this helps
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elected_Mayors_in_the_United_Kingdom
187 - Looks like it, Baroness Royall must be annoyed though.
Sky are still persisting with their poor predicition model
Just looking at the Staffordshire results, Labour went from a one seat majority to just 3 councillors! Staggering!
185. James - I don’t understand that comment:
(a) Is he Lord President of the Council, or not? What does it mean to hold that post “in effect”, when it is nowadays merely a sinecure?
(b) Many Lord Presidents of the Council have been Commoners - e.g. Sir John Anderson and Herbert Morrison during the 1940s.
195 - thanks Habib
Cameron on bbc
Is the LD slogan still going to be ‘Winning here’?
BBC saying Tory result disappointing. Not improved on the figures Michael Howard gained, infact gone backwards.
Two new leaders wanted
Cameron takes a pop at the BBC.
194. Alex. Related party transactions are a special case - selling to a firm you own, or to a member of the family. Well recognised in law.
203
The BBC are lying. Plain and simple.
203 - If they’re doing badly i dread to think how many councillors Labour would have left if they’d done well!
205 - Earlier you were saying he hadn’t done anything illegal. Make your mind up.
Is this 38% actually accurate? I don’t believe it.
re 199 it means that he heads the Privy Council under HMQ and will attend all privy council meetings. Much governing these days is done by Order in Council so it’s hardly a sinecure.
Good old Beeb - reliable as ever. Winning councils that they’ve not held for 20-30 years suggests that the Tories have done pretty well, but not in he BBC bubble..
203 - You’ll now have a load of posters jumping up and down.
None of whom will offer odds on Cameron falling below Howards levels in the Euros.
Dreadful day for Labour, but there are some deluded Tories out there.
203- How can the Tories be going backwards when they’ve just about wiped Labour off the map (and not to the benefit of the Lib Dems either)? What more could the Tories have possibly accomplished to prove their strength?
BBC, quiet rightly, pointing out it’s been a disappointing day for the Conservatives.
211. They are being ridiculous to the extreme. Not surprising though, they have form…
David Cameron just got the better of Huw Edwards on the 6 o’clock News. Edwards was going on and on (and on) about how disappointed the Tories must be with their 38% share - never mind all the seats they’ve won. Cameron elegantly skewered him. Gave a round up of all their victories up and down the country and got in the last word “I think even the BBC will have to admit that’s a good result for the Conservatives”. Cut to face of thunder from Huw. Excellent.
213 - The BBC are putting far too much faith in their “model” and are unable to open their eyes to what is really happening.
BBC line to Cameron, ‘you failed to win every seat available so this is a disaster for the Tory toffs’ - unbelievable.
Sorry this might have been said before-
I was surprised Andy Burnham got Health. It’s a big step up from Culture and Sport. I also think he got promoted over the heads of Shaun Woodward, John Denham, Ed Miliband, Douglas Alexander and even Yvette Cooper. Could cause a bit of jealousy, resentment and even disillusionment for said ministers?
205 - Indeed what would we make of George Osborne inheriting an MPs second home and avoiding IHT on it?
214. How can gaining places like Lancashire and Derbyshire be disappointing? You are being totally absurd.
214 - have a look at the map showing control of councils. If that’s a measure of disappointment then I’m proper gutted!
The LibDem 28% figure must be highly dubious, and it is virtually impossible for the Cons to do any better with that taking so much of the vote share (especially when you consider the ‘others’ vote as well).
203. Basically, given the local election scores the Tories have been gaining over the last decade, Labour shouldn’t really have held any of these county councils outright. In any cycle other than 2001 and 2005 the Tories would probably have won most of the seats they gained yesterday (including, perhaps, in the South West).
That doesn’t mean the Tories didn’t win the county council elections - clearly they did, since no other party controls a county council - but it does suggest that the Tories have more or less reached saturation point in local government. As with Labour in the mid-1990s, the only way is almost certainly down.
I have to say that I don’t think the BBC is doing a particularly biased job. Professor Curtice of Starthclyde University, who some on here seem to be think is a anti-tory, appeared balanced and reasoned in his R4 PM appearance. Robinson is a bit irritating and there is an element of leftish consensus, but it is hardly the persistent bias that many claim. Indeed, at critical times Labour Ministers have been given a very rough ride.
What I would say is that the BBC is not delivering cutting edge analysis or numbers - and they are very slow.
Can we have less of the Pravda stuff please?
The argument seems to be that the Conservatives aren’t capitalising fully on the Labour collapse - even though it is they who have taken all the Labour party’s councils AND they have taken a couple of LibDem stronghold councils for good measure.
The models are bonkers.
181. Willie Whitelaw was Deputy PM after his elevation to the Lords.
203. How gaining six councils so far (of the relatively few on offer) and dozens and dozens of seats is “failing to advance” is beyond my understanding.
By my reckoning, for every 11 councillors Labour went into these elections with, they’ve come out with 4.
any info on turnout?
“Analysis: Labour in meltdown but Tories failing to capitalise”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/elections/article6439227.ece
209. This is a charade the BBC go through every year. They always come in with a low figure quickly, which is proved wrong once all the results are in. Two years ago there was a battle royale about wehther or not Conservatives were on 40%. BBC of course insisted they in the 30s. By the time it was proved the share was 40% the story had moved on and noone was interested. BBC coverage is exactly as I predicted yesterday - they aren’t called Pravda for nothing.
As an aside, I thought Harman was very competent again on BBC News. How she stands around mopping up after her loony master I have no idea.
Personally I think in the context of the expenses scandal 38% is pretty good for the Tories.
225 Ken, I’ve been watching BBC all day and it’s been quite disgraceful - they could argue they are trying to be fair to all - but it’s clearly been a stinker for Labour and a bloody triumph for the Conservatives - but you wouldn’t get that message from the coverage - in fact you’d come away from it thinking they’d had a pasting.
227 - The National Projection used by both TV stations I’ve seen reckon that the Tory share of the vote in these elections has fallen by about 6 per cent since last year.
Most of it going to small parties and a lot to independents.
229. Christ wept!
232. C. Difficult to say. Remember that turnout is particularly bad for Labour due to the expenses thing.
229- But the Tories are capitalizing.
Who is winning seats and who is losing seats? There’s your answer.
I think what they do is just project the percentage swing change across the country. A UNS - it looks like complete bullshit to me!
I should imagine some of the LD seats they have lost today count as in the LD column, not just on the BBC!
Nottinghamshire?
Re reaction to my previous comments. The last Yougov poll showed a clear majority of Labour voters did not think replacing Brown would help Labour, albeit around 40% of Tory voters did. Labourhome is for political hacks it does not necessarily represent the broader Labour party many of whom are angry with Blears and her ridiculous broach and the expense claims made by her and many of those resigning etc and just want some unity. Remember Labour still got over 20% despite bad results today and the Tories would not win by a landslide in the general by any means either on these results. Even if the general mirrored the locals Labour would still be well ahead of the Liberals in MPs returned.
Also people go on and on about the “crucial 40% share” whilst failing fundamentally to acknowledge that what is crucial is the % relative to other parties. 38% vs 23% gives a much larger majority than 40% vs 37%
238. Martin, what on earth does that mean?
*************WE NEED A MILITARY COUP***********
230/3
Sky have been giving roughly the same reports on the Tory advance or lack of in vote share.
Jack Peteron on here makes the relevant point that had the General Election not been held on the same day as elections to these councils in the last two cycles these councils would have gone before.
@229: Amazing! A total failure to win a couple of hundred seats, more than half a dozen councils, the mayoralty in North Tyneside. A national swing in excess of that required to win a general election (despite the moats and duck islands).
I’m more than slightly impressed with the Tory performance, across the whole of England…
Just watching the Brown statement. I lose count is it relaunch number 20,327 or 20,328?
Essex turn out was down 23 per cent.
Also if you have
Lab -203
Con +173
that says that most of Labour’s losses have gone to the Conservatives.
Ken - I agree but it could have been worse. And they seem to be effectively able to target their efforts where it most matters which bodes well for the marginals at an election.
Polly is not happy…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/05/labour-crash-cabinet-gordon-brown
242. Well on sky for instance the LD are project on 6 odd seats in a GE.
This is despite the fact in the southwest where some of the exsisting seats would have been lost given the CC votes. Thats what i mean.
I cannot believe Labour on 217 either! Complete rubbish IMO!
247 - that’s because the councils were last fought at the same time as a General Election.
251. Should say “60 odd”
Still waiting for about 5 or 6 results in Nottinghamshire.
Note also very good results for the Lib Dems in South Lakeland, with four gains by huge majorities. I assume the Con - LD coalition will continue to govern Cumbria.
The second question for the day, for me, is “how are the LDs going to move on from here”? The switch has been from Labour to Tory, and the LDs have slightly faded. What can they do now?
H/T Obo twitter: Sugar’s firm Viaglen won £30m contract to supply Gov’t with computers just a month ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5454089/Alan-Sugar-profile-of-Governments-new-business-tsar.html
Academics such as Cowling and Curtice, and Thrasher on Sky, are really left-wing.
1828 Labour’s deputy leader, Harriet Harman, tells BBC News: “We have got to listen to what these results are saying, but I think we already know that voters are worried about the economy and furious about expenses.”
- and want to see the back of you lot!
Tom Bradby - good man!
Poor Polly sounds desperate, ‘liquidation’ - gosh!
AS much as I haven’t got much tme for Flint, her resignation letter may well resonate with female LAB voters.
Flint has to be the most ridiculous resignation since Claire Short quit after the Gulf War rather than having the guts to walk out with Robin Cook.
Gordon Brown has lost the plot. Think as a country we’re almost at the stage of protest march calling for a General Election.
The overall picture is that the government is completely destabilised.
IF Brown survives until May, they’ll be wiped out.
But I think it is now much more likely that he’ll be gone by the end of next week.
So who will it be: Harman or Johnson?
251. Alright Martin, that makes sense. But if the Lib Dems were on 28% and Labour on 23% in a general election, a large chunk of urban northern England would fall. The cities have lots of votes.
Frankly I don’t see much point analysing the Lib Dem performance until Sunday night, because the Lib Dem projected share of 28% depends on extrapolating their performance vis-a-vis Labour in the shires (and Bristol) into the cities. On Sunday night we will know if that extrapolation is robust - that is, if Labour voters in the metropolitan areas really are switching to the Lib Dems.
I think wise Tories might not protest too loudly at folks like the BBC spinning this more as a disappointment for Cameron than as a defeat for Labour. That sort of line can only help Brown, which could ultimately prolong his stewardship of the Labour Party.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziTrlKAkn94
Bob Ainsworth that fine specimen in his finest 5 minutes back in 2007. Complete with toupee and Paxman.
Labour really is scraping the barrel with his appointment.
Kent CC, with one to declare:
Conservative: 74 (+19)
Labour: 2 (-17)
Lib Dem: 6 (+1)
Other: 1 (+1)
The “Other” is one Labour lost to the Swanscombe and Greenhithe Residents Association.
Former Labour group leader Mike Eddy came sixth out of six. Unless they win the last seat, I don’t think they’ll be able to form a Labour group in the next session (minimum to do so is three).
265 Richard Nabavi
Do you think Miliband is completely written off?
I know he has been shown to be spineless - twice. But I don’t think courage is a particularly important character trait for Labour MPs.
265. Surely Harman or Purnell. Johnson’s credibility has been shot to pieces today; he will not be leader this side of the GE, and probably not after it either. Miliband likewise.
I’m very disappointed that Hutton hasn’t decided to put up a fight.
If Brown can hang on for another 3-4 months, it’ll be almost too late to replace him.
It all depends how bad the euro results are, and what the PLP says on Monday.
The cabinet have obviously figured it’s better to die later than commit suicide now by changing leader
******BETTING**********
Ladbrokes bloke says all the money is on Brown staying but it’s changing minute to minute. People are betting heavily on Purnell. 500:1 Simon Cowell to be a Labour poeer.
Mandelson has also been appointed “First Secretary of State.” Along with the “Democratic Renewal Council,” the Orwellian tone of this government is getting even more disturbing.
More of Huhne’s idea of good news.
Conservatives gained 178 seats
LD’s lost 15 seats.
LD’s “Losing Here”.
Gary O’Donaghue: Good man, excellent reporting.
These results are good for the Lib Dems, given that they have increased their National Projection share from 2005 when the anti Iraq factor was at its highest.
They should be nervous about the West Country though.
They’re being hunted with Rees Moggs.
271 Jack Peterson
It can’t be Purnell. Unlike Miliband/Johnson, Purnell has guts but he is a mega-trougher.
270 wibbler
I’d say his chances are quite small now, although not completely written off. He doesn’t really offer anything, whereas Harman does (she’s the most impressive as a fighter and personality, albeit divisive), and Johnson seems to be a possible unifying figure.
Do we have final numbers for Notts yet?
I find that these 25 post pages really do detract from being able to read PB’s threads in the round.
Mike, Robert and Co. have been warmly applauded in keeping the service going recently despite the huge surge in the number of hits and doubtless they deserve our thanks.
A couple of thoughts however do occur -
Firstly until fairly recently, pretty much every day in fact we saw 400+ posts appearing on threads, apparently without any great problems to the system - indeed sometimes these numbers reached 500 or even 600 before a continuation thread was introduced. It seems odd therefore that page breaks have, like today, had to be introduced at even 25 post intervals to cope with the increase in traffic volumes which has apparently taken place over just the last 2-3 months.
Secondly, in my experience, I have not encountered these types of constraints on other very popular blogs which I regular visit, which, with respect, begs a couple of questions - is PB’s server equipment up to the job and/or is Wordpress up to the job?
One thing’s for sure, traffic is likely to increase substantially in the run-up to the General Election and clearly considerably greater capacity needs to be planned for, otherwise 10 posts per page limits or regular breakdowns seem inevitable.
I did suggest a couple of days ago that, hopefully, a good number of PBers would be prepared to contribute towards improving the capability of the server, if this is indeed where the problem lies.
Perhaps Robert or Mike could explain in layman’s terms what has to happen to improve this blog, which until recently was a delight to navigate, but is now, quite frankly, hard work and unavoidably therefore somewhat less enjoyable.
280. http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/home/your_council/councilelections/electionresults.htm
CON 32
LAB 8
LD 4
IND 3
278. Any chance of a Purnell defection (to the Lib Dems?) if Gordon stays in place for the next few months? He and Philip Collins certainly have some of the most liberal instincts in the Labour Party.
281-”I find that these 25 post pages really do detract from being able to read PB’s threads in the round.”
Me too.
150, Many thanks for your educated reply. However if Brown carries on like this…………..
Greens win 7 seats in Norwich, something to bear in mind for the by-election!
283 Jack Peterson
Clegg has been hardest of any party leaders on flipping and avoiding CGT - according to the DT, Purnell has done both. There is no way the Lib Dems could accept him.
Despite his courage, he is damaged goods.
How will Michael Crick spin this as good for Gordon Brown on newsnight tonight?
Watch Fraser Nelson nail Gordon Brown at todays press conference
http://thecrownblogspot.blogspot.com/2009/06/watch-fraser-nelson-nail-gordon-brown.html
In a twist on the old joke the BBC line on the Conservatives seems to be “the operation was a dreadful failure” but strangely the patient appears to be in the best of health.
ITV news coverage much much better and much more accurate. I also agree Harriet Harman is coming out of this well.
277 - Even if the projected share is accurate, which must be a bit suspicious, it isn’t at all clear that it will lead to increased number of seats if they are being hammered by the Cons in their heartlands.
282. Thanks. That’ll be a “no” then
Five Live keep reporting it as NOC - is there no chance of the 33rd seat?
What is this drivel about the Tories having a “disappointing” election?
Here’s yer Labour supporting Guardian analysis:
“The Conservatives have done extremely well in terms of seats in the county council results. It was almost a foregone conclusion that they would hold on to what they had, and sweep Labour out of the remaining county councils in the Midlands, but they seem to have done rather better.
“They were not just beneficiaries of a Labour collapse, but also made considerable progress against the Liberal Democrats, gaining control of Somerset and Devon from the rival opposition party. So far the Tories even look as if they are doing well in the new Cornwall unitary council, winning Redruth Central – a town where the party scraped barely 10%of the vote in the 2005 county elections. It seems possible that they will manage a clean sweep of all the county councils, a feat at the most optimistic end of their hopes.
For Labour the results are utterly miserable.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jun/05/local-elections-labour-lewis-baston
About the only critique you can reasonably make is that the Tories have peaked - from here the only way is down. But that’s because they have literally won everything winnable. They are Man Utd after the Treble.
And Labour are Newcastle United.
281.
I think it is because it is a homebased server.
It is like trying to flow a river through a two foot stream! There is likely not to be enough bandwidth for people to access it at the same time - so with shorter pages less info needs transmission.
283. None (at the risk of doing a Roger).
Purnell has a nice safe seat, providing he can keep his constituency party on side. Short of a 1931-style wipeout, he’ll be in parliament after the next election, when there’ll probably be (another?) leadership election. Even if he’s not a candidate before the GE, he should be one for after it.
282
That is out of date. Now
Con 33
LAB 12
LD 9
Ind 9
PoliticsHome shows Notts as a Con Gain
Alan Johnson sounds drunk
292
The Tories already have 33. They need 34 and there are 3 or 4 left to declare one of which was Tory before Thursday.
293 - They peaked last year at 44% and have dropped to 38% this year on National Projections.
288. It probably is good for Brown. He gets slightly longer to save the world, and therefore presumably he’ll be pleased. It has to be bad for everyone else though.
283. I was wondering that. Seems like it would be a good move for Blairite MPs.
Alan Johnson; “I haven’t seen the full details of the cabinet reshuffle yet.”
Sounds out of his depth already…
297
Not yet but should be soon.
Postman Pat dying on his arse on Sky!
NORWICH NORTH BY ELECTION.
WHAT ABOUT THE GREENS TO WIN, AFTER YESTERDAY AND THEIR SENSATIONAL VICTORIES IN WHAT 6 NORWICH WARDS, THEY MUST BE ON A ROLL.
MY BET GOES ON TOMORROW.
WHAT IS IT ABOUT NORWICH FOR THEM, IS IT THE UNIVERSITY.
Hopefully until the next election, he really is a disaster for Labour. David Cameron’s in the interesting position of needing to harass Brown at every turn but hoping he stays in the job. Any other PM would have resigned already, I guess Cameron is lucky he’s facing Brown and not anyone else.
“6.47pm: Progress, the Blairite pressure group, has just sent out a press notice inviting us to a “debate on the future of the Labour party” in the Boothroyd room in Portcullis House on Monday at 7pm. The two key speakers are Caroline Flint and Stephen Byers. It sounds as if that could be the moment when “plotters” join together and launch their bid to topple Brown in earnest.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jun/05/local-elections-european-elections
Johnson seems to think his job as Home Sec is about helping the Labour party rather than actually performing the Home Secs job.
What is Postman Pat wittering about? Man, imagine if he ever does get to be PM, going to have to do better than that!
Watching C4 News - Broon was wearing a lot of slap in that press conference…
305 its the wrong Norwich seat for them - Norwich South is a strong Green seat.
Norwich North will go Tory.
‘Gordon Brown doesn’t know what he’s talking about’ - what Sir Alan Sugar wrote
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6437959.ece
tim, is this the most depressing day to be a Labour supporter since the 1992 election?
I can’t think of a rival.
The Tory vote share is almost irrelevant - all incumbent parties have been hit by Scamalot. Tories needed to show they could win lots of seats and councils despite that, and to further demoralise Labour.
Both objectives were attained, in style.
Well its clear that ITV news think that Labour have imploded today!
305. Labour vote will split to Greens and Libs - Tories will naturally pick up a bit and run through the middle.
Norwich North is a much better prospect than Norwich South. Conservatives are in econd place here - with a good 33% chunk of the vote - and Labours majority less than 6,000/11%.
It’s a Con GAIN.
304. Oracle
Yes Johnson is not upto being PM - He sounded stupid saying the Home Office was about the Police, the Security services etc. Indeed he sounded not upto being Home Sec. nevermind being PM.
I reckon Chris Grayling will take Johnson apart!
267 Thought this was interesting from NJ ““Our opponents promise the moon,” Corzine said. “They want to cut government, increase spending, slash taxes and balance the budget. They’ve got this so-called secret plan. They won’t tell you whose taxes they’re going to cut — they’re going to check with George Bush about that.”
Really Stars if the best Corzine has is a lame attempt to try and cast Christie as some Manchurian candidate secretly controlled by W then he’s gonna get beat right.
307-CoffeeHouse picking up the same news
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3674523/byers-and-flint-to-speak-out-monday.thtml
re 315 if it isn’t a Con gain then we all need to take a bit more notice of RodC again.
Has Nottingham declared yet?
According to the BBC, Labour seats have now been exceeded by “Others”, slipping to fourth!!!
The Lib Dems appear to have come out quite well, the slaughter of the innocents in Devon is almost the total of their overall losses, but in many many councils now they are the main opposition, sometimes with four or five councillors.
Staffordshire is an example, they appear to have 4, Labour 3 and Independents including UKIP 4.
Has anyone seen the overall percentage vote by party?
A real surreal election.
Monday could be fun!!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3674523/byers-and-flint-to-speak-out-monday.thtml
305 Try again the University is in Norwich South.
313. In purely political terms, it surely must be.
In terms of effect and decision making, 18th March 2003 must run it close.
313 SeanT - tim, is this the most depressing day to be a Labour supporter since the 1992 election?
I can’t think of a rival.
Well its worse than yesterday, but probably about the same as Sunday and Monday will be.
Tomorrow I’ve got some old school friends coming to stay and intend to drink very heavily.
293 With Brown at the helm,Labour are Hull City-facing certain relegation soon!
Can we have 100 comments per page now?
tim, some more analysis for you, from the Guardian:
“Despairing progressives have long comforted themselves with the thought that while the Conservatives may outperform Labour they will struggle to win a commanding Commons majority, because of the way their vote is spread out. The pattern of today’s election results is blowing this last psychological refuge away.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jun/05/labour-conservatives-local-elections
HH was elected in 1982 was she not? Peckham by-election!
She just said it was 1983!!! On channel 4!
313 SeanT - tim, is this the most depressing day to be a Labour supporter since the 1992 election?
I can’t think of a rival.
Well its worse than yesterday, but probably about the same as Sunday and Monday will be.
Tomorrow I’ve got some old school friends coming to stay and intend to drink very heavily.
I think Johnson has made a tactically fatal error by taking the Home Office. Should have resigned, would have been in a much stronger position than he is tonight.
Regarding the national vote shares what we are seeing is that the biggest swings to the Conservatives are happening in their target areas hence their huge gains in Derbyshire, Staffs, Lancs, Devon etc.
However in areas which are already strong Conservative and hence where the political status quo is already Conservatives there is little or no swing to the Conservatives for example in Surrey (where the Conservatives have lost 3 wards), W Suusex, Bucks, Cambs etc.
The key fact is that the Conservative vote has now become far more efficient and hence using a UNS calculation gives a much lower Conservative majority than actually looking at what has happened in the target seats.
The Conservative strategists will be very, very happy with these results. They far exceed what they expected.
317- I wonder how much mileage the Dems can still get by mentioning Bush in every other sentence. This suggestion that Bush is running the New Jersey GOP from behind the scenes is particularly bold.
Corzine has never been a very good politician, but he is a very rich one. He’ll be hoping that he can win by pumping a blizzard of bullsh*t over the very expensive New York and Philadelphia airwaves over the next five months. We’ll see if it works, but I can tell you that dislike of Corzine is pretty widespread in New Jersey and he’ll have to turn a lot of people into haters of Chris Christie to be able to pull it off.
BBC still saying not a good days for the Tories …
319. Pickles will be in charge of the campaign and he knows exactly what he’s doing. The Tory by-election op is pretty well honed by now.
Also, don’t forget the natural Lab-Con swing since 2005. This seat only needs a 6% swing. In todays climate, that should be easily achieved. The current national swing would be enough to carry the Tories over the finishing line by itself anyway.
It’s a much smaller ask than Crewe.
Harman describes Glennis Kinnock as “a fresh, new face,”
Words fail me!
Too much excitement. I’ve bought a copy of The Genesis Secret to help me calm down.
331. I’d agree if I thought Johnson wanted to be leader. He does not.
BBC are an utter disgrace today. Conservatives need to get Hague on there.
Peter Kelner talking though his arse - calls himself a psephologist. I know whose ARSE I’d rather trust.
332. So what your saying is that come the general election night we could get early results that point to a hung parliament, leaving Rod, the BBC and Labour cock-a-hoop, only for much bigger swings to start taking place once the marginals begin to declare, causing a huge black depression to sweep across Rod and co?
More news in the form of “Chris Huhne Spinning bad is good”
More bad news for Conservatives and good news for the LDs!
LDs lose Cornwall council to NOc and lose 29 councillors. Conservatives gain 24 in Cornwall.
Overall in England LDs = -2 Councils and - 59 councillors….
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive-Graphics/Locals2009
331 - I don’t know - if he’s not up to the job of Home Secretary then it would better better for everyone, including him, if he finds out now before he gets catapulted into being Prime Minister.
St Ives, Cambridgeshire: Labour beaten by the Monster Raving Loony candidate!! Is this what they call a loonslide
I think the Postie knows he really would be inadequate as PM. If he’s forced to take the role, I think he’d have to call an election immediately. Think I read he didn’t have a single GCE to his name when he left school. However affable he may be, you really can’t have someone that thick running the country.
317 Punter
Corzine is not very good. But my pet dog could beat a Republican [18% approval] in any election. And I don’t even have a dog.
I wonder what the actual percentage of the vote is in these elections? This projected percentage stuff seems totally off.
337. Good man! I hope you find the blood-eagling suitably soothing.
Labour has 141 seats combined Others 147… ouch.
334. What do you expect?
They wouldn’t say it was a good day for the Tories if they won every seat in the country and Brown and Clegg committed Hara-kiri outside Television Centre.
I wonder if the Labour rebels made a mistake by doing thing via e-mail.
I mean it could be anyone sending the e-mails!
Who the hell would bother signing upto something that you don’t know who the person who created it is?
336 - This is Glenys Kinnock who RETIRED from the Euro-Parliament this year on account of becoming 65!!
The only thing that could cause a headache for the Tories in Notthingham is if a high profile anti-sleeze independent like Martin Bell or Esther Rantzen decides to stands. Otherwise, should be a fairly comfortably Conservative Gain, I’d have thought?
I wonder if anyone will ask her to publish her expenses when she was a Euro-MP “in the spirit of transparency”?
346- Well, if Corzine loses his New Jersey re-election bid, I’m sure he can move to solidly Democratic North Dakota and run for governor there.
Sky had Ladbrokes guy on about an hr ago and he said the Tories were odds on to get 30%+.
Sky had Ladbrokes guy on about an hr ago and he said the Tories were odds on to get 30%+ in the Euros.
345 Add up
Lord Home tried to run the country.
353. Sorry, should be Norwich. Been a loooooonnnngggg day.
333 I think Christie is choosing exactly the right angle. Rather than full frontal he’s saying Corzine nice guy but he just doesn’t cut it for NJ. Pity is the deadliest thing for any Politician. Also Christie has the fact that Corzine supported his nomination as a Prosecutor so it’s gonna be rather tough for Corzine as Christie can and will say well if all that’s the case really why did you support my nomination as Prosecutor.
BBC finally confirming (grudgingly, perhaps?) that the Tories have gained more than 200 seats with 5 councils left to go.
Also picked up the Genesis Secret the other day…
352- Well, if you’re washed up as an MEP, you’re probably just about right for the Brown cabinet…
How can Jeremy Vine, with a straight face, show a graphic showing Conservatives down 6% and say it’s been a disappointing day, then follow it with completely blue map …
MK says: at 7:19 pm “How can Jeremy Vine, with a straight face, show a graphic showing Conservatives down 6% and say it’s been a disappointing day, then follow it with completely blue map …”
Easy if you are the BBC and do not understand that the electorate sample for these elections is not directly comparable to last years elections.
363 - What they also forget is that these seats were fought during the last election. Why not just take the changes in percentage share and extrapolate that on a UNS swing basis to see what would happen in the next election?
Got to be better by claiming that the LibDems are on 28% on the basis of assuming that Bristol is the same as every other inner city area in the country!
“Gordon Brown could be out ‘by Tuesday’: Up to 100 Labour MPs call on Prime Minister to quit”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191124/Gordon-Brown-Tuesday-Up-100-Labour-MPs-Prime-Minister-quit.html
Incisive analysis as always from Mr E…
http://mreugenides.blogspot.com/2009/06/liveblogging-cabinet-reshuffle.html
360- Tactically speaking, Christie can take this soft approach because of his already double-digit lead:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor
Meanwhile, Corzine will have to play dirty to try to catch up. Corzine’s problem is that his image is already so soiled that the mudslinging will only solidify that negative image, while Christie can define himself as a good guy through the softer approach. But look out for the flood of cash from Corzine & Company, it’s coming…
The muppets are Pravda are contridicting each other.
BBC presenter:- so Lancashire, used to be lots of Tory seats, only when Tony Blair did it go red.
Correspondent:- Yes, the Tories last held this in 1981, 2 years into Thatcher government, then it became a solid Labour area….
Labour hold six Kent constiuenceies: Dover, chatam, Gravesend, South Thanet Dartford & Sittingbourne.
Labour group on Kent County Council falls from 20 to 2. This does not bode for Labour at a General election. It also means a fairly large reduction in the party infrasture in this key area.
366 - It’s no wonder he couldn’t find anyone from the Parliamentary Party to complete his government and had to go to the Lords! None of the Parliamentary Party back him!
As someone who despises everything Harman stands for and does, I have to confess she is the one Cabinet Minister to have emerged from this with a little dignity and integrity.
Mandelson has been serpentine and offputting (of course), Johnson has finally revealed himself as a eunuch, Miliband has yet again fluffed his lines, Darling is a lamentable sulk, Straw is pathetic and shallow, etc etc.
Harman is the only one who hasn’t (as far as I know) made some simpering and awful defense of Gordon - yet she has still just about appeared loyal. Clever.
She must be v confused. Her only chance of becoming PM is if she unseats Gordon before the election. And she would certainly do a better job than Broon. But how can she make a move, when she is surrounded by noodles like Miliband?
370 - this is also fairly important when one considers the financial straitjacket Labour could be in at the election. “Free” Volunteers could be quite precious.
Ben Page of IPSOS Mori talking sense on C4 that Cameron is looking at a 100 seat majority.
Eric the Pickle says Conservatives looking at 250+ more seats.
Stars and Stripes
Please try to post about the UK political situation as you show far more knowledge in that enterprise than you have ever shown writing about the US. Republican Approval improving - now 18%!
Has anyone actually attempted to compile a %of the vote, for the areas fought. Have Labour broken 10%?
374 - Thrasher basically said the same thing on Sky, he gave his model as majority of 28, then said however, I don’t think that will be the case, I think it would be a lot more than that.
375- For similar reasons, I would suggest that you should also keep to discussions on British politics.
372. I don’t think Darling has come out all that badly. He’s not had to do anything foolish such as saying that GB is the best man for the job. I agree HH too has been a gainer. People like Cruddas and Benn can’t have been hurt also.
Sitting in any questions audience. Rancid fruit to hand.
According to this piece by Ralling and Trasher
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6395942.ece?token=null&offset=24&page=3
150-250 Tory gains and they are on course for a general election win.
“Labour rebels regroup for push against Brown
One rebel described the next government whipping tactic: “Disloyal MPs are being told, ‘You want a cabinet minister to visit your constituency during an election campaign? Then be very careful.’ That works. A picture of an MP with a cabinet minister in their local newspaper in a marginal seat can make the difference between winning and losing.”
One of senior Brown critics said: “What we are looking at now is a battlefield of bodies. As soon as James [Purnell] resigned the government used all its powers of patrnoage to move in on David Miliband and Alan Johnson. The anger with David this morning was extreme and he has inflicted damage on himself that I think is probably terminal.”"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/05/brown-challenge-labour-rebels-regroup
BBC are not treating the LD loss of Cornwall as a loss …. presumably because it is a new unitary and the old county council was they believe not comparable?
LDs loss of councillors is therefore obscured..
375- And since you’re harping on popularity, here’s a nice nugget from Gallup showing that Dick Cheney is now more popular than Nancy Pelosi:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/120761/Cheney-Pelosi-Poor-Ratings-Common.aspx
The good news for the GOP is that Cheney’s out of office; the bad news for the Dems is that Pelosi is still in Washington.
377 - Yes the BBC are showing far too much faith in their “model”. Thrasher is more confident to accept that statistical models don’t always work, and whilst he only has one way to calculate the numbers, he could be wrong. Also very important to point out that %share isn’t all important. It’s where you get the votes, not how many.
383 - Did they not do that last year as well, and ended up with Sky reporting much bigger gains for Tories against BBC figures, and it was for exactly that reason.
Think back to just one week ago. People were saying if 2 or 3 ministers resigned Gordon would go. 7 have now resigned, issuing dissing letters , labour have been devastated even worse than predicted and the tories done far better. Brown is refusing to budge. He’s destroying the Labour party before our very eyes and looks openly off his rocker. This is surely the end - isnt it?
These threads are awfully short. Really stops you enjoying a nice long thread. I appreciate the server issues, but it’s just frustrating to have to click back and forth to see what people have said. The wonderful long reading threads without having to click and load all the time were the best thing about this place. It’s stoppped me visiting as regularly - what do others think?
Looking at the daily mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Interesting narrotive Flint accuses Brown of being Sexist.
Look further down and Sugar described as a “Sexist Bully”.
I do think Sugar has bitten off more than he can chew here with this. He is going to become Unpopular and hated! He is just thought of as a cnut at this time!
372. SeanT. good to have you aboard, the SS “Harman has Cojones”. None of us like her policies and we all think that she is a bit of a harridan, but Harman is ten times the leader that Johnson is, and 1000 times better than Gordon. But, like every other player she is waiting for someone else to stab Gordo.
387 - Pravda still propping him up!
The Old Etonian isn’t having it all his own way.
Tory leader David Cameron is understood to be furious at Lord Kalms for appearing to encouraging Conservative voters to back the anti-European party at yesterday’s elections.
What punishment will Dave mete out?
388 agree. 50 is too short.
384. Dick Cheney is a lot more high profile than Pelosi right now. If Pelosi takes the flak for Obama, and he stays popular, I think the Dems will be sitting nicely. Bring on 2012!
387. What we didn’t count on was that it would be proven beyond all reasonable doubt that Miliband is a eunuch. This is the 3rd time he could have challenged Brown directly and again he’s chickened out of it.
Either that or Brown has got some serious dirt on him!
Are things alming down enough on here now to go back to 50 posts per page?
389 - Sugar already made a boob in his interview to Sky. He said that after accepting his position from Gordo, he was wittering about not good enough to be a minister, just an advisor, but then tried to make a joke about fixing Gordo Sky Dish as having problem with reception and didn’t want to miss the final of the Apprentice.
That will be the tax payer funded Sky subscription then!!! I bet Gordo wants his “ministers” bringing up his dodgy expense claims!
395. I’ve always thought Milliband = Portillo (minus the phone lines)
392 - he’s being expelled from the party.
Northamptonshire confirmed as a Tory hold with an increased majority
Bring on the Heff!!!
Gordon Brown: You can judge a leader by his toadies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/5455363/Gordon-Brown-You-can-judge-a-leader-by-his-toadies.html
378 Stars I think Christie can rely on the national GOP to play the hardball with Corzine as and when necessary. Considering the way the party bigwigs rowed in behind him it seems they really regard NJ as a potential political Gettysburg where they can begin to turn the tide so they will back him to the hilt. Given all that can you envisage the GOP winning the bluer state NJ while not winning VA. I can.
398 But Portillo was running against a really good PM. Miliband would be running against a really bad one.
The FT editorial:
“(…)The loss of John Hutton at defence – a minister on top of his brief, with British troops at war in Afghanistan and a defence review ahead – demands proper explanation. On its sixth defence secretary, fourth foreign secretary and sixth home secretary, Labour comes across as, well, careless.
Mr Brown, for his part, evinces no sense of purpose beyond survival and shows no sense of direction beyond averting an early test at the polls. He could just limp on. It is not just party rules that make regicide difficult in the Labour party; yet again, this rebellion of all the talents has been willing to wound and yet afraid to strike.
The stench of fin de siécle round Mr Brown resembles the way John Major was undermined towards the end of his mandate. Mr Major submitted himself to a “back me or sack me” leadership contest and won. The prime minister should now do the same.
He has failed to reassert his authority in the cabinet reshuffle. He faces humiliation in the European elections. He should show he commands a clear majority in his party or step down and clear the way for a general election.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da5ad8ea-51f8-11de-b986-00144feabdc0.html
Notts - penultimate seat: Labour hold
Con control now hinges on Hucknall, where there’s a recount
394- Let’s hope that Pelosi takes plenty of flak. Bring on 2010!
I notice Pravda has shut up about failure if Tories didn’t gain another 250 seats, wonder why?
Tories have won Nottinghamshire. They picked up 2 more seats and UKIP picked up the last one.
Final tally
Con 35
Lab 13
LD 9
UKIP 1
Ind 9
I think the thing that is noticeable with these results is the problems the Lib Dems might have in the South West. To me the fact that the Lib Dems are getting hit by the Conservatives is interesting and the fact that they are also hammering Labour in the North as well.
Re Oracle at 7:31 pm
The BBC may have also done that last year.
Wiltshire is another Council where Sky are showing a loss of 10 seats and the BBC are treating it as a new council that came from nowhere.
*** CON GAIN NOTTS!! ***
388. Totally agree, Socrates. The shortened threads are just horrible. I even toyed with moving to Comment is Free, but I’d miss you all too much.
*sniff*
That said, I hope Messrs Smithson get a grip on things soon. I appreciate the difficulties, natch, but Mike wants to run this as a professional blog (and OGH usually does a great and fantastic job) - and the present situation smacks a tiny bit of amateurism. To be brutally frank.
I heard rumours we were moving to a fab new server. Hope so.
Anyone know when Hill’s will settle the market on Tacqui Jacqui leaving?
Ho ho ho, Tom Bower on BBC,
“Gordo’s attitude to women is terrible”
Notts Con gain
Conservative 35
Labour 13
Liberal Democrat 9
Independents 2
UK Independence Party 1
Others
414 (cont) He is a Stalinist, he is a Marxist, he is a plotter…..
Great advert for Gordo
396. I really think going below 200 undercuts one of the central USPs of this place.
Is there a danger that Brown will start to hate the electorate.
There must be a point at which he starts to think F*ck those bastards then, this is all about me.
402- That’s a fair evaluation. I think that, at least at this point, both New Jersey and Virginia have to be judged as very close contests, with the GOP a slight favorite in Virginia and a true toss-up in New Jersey. But frankly, a GOP loss in either state would be a serious disappointment given the circumstances.*
*Note that in Corzine’s first run for statewide office in New Jersey, in 2000, he won by only 3 points despite spending about $50 million in a blue state. That was even before he had built up such a terrible record (record high taxes, record high car insurance rates, record high property taxes, terrible school performances, etc.).
397. Oracle
What i find interesting is Sugar has given £1 Million to the Labour party.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1190938/Arise-Lord-Alan-Gordon-Brown-offers-Sir-Alan-Sugar-peerage-enterprise-tsar.html
Call me a cynic but is the Sugar job just window dressing for rewarding Sugar for his past and possibly future donations?
James Burdett at 7:40 pm “I think the thing that is noticeable with these results is the problems the Lib Dems might have in the South West.”
The day started with the yellow peril having control of Cornwall, Devon and Somerset.
They end it losing all 3…
411. Takes that Labour! POW!
419. By that i mean Sugar doing a government role is a way of getting round the Cash for Peerages stigma!
What an astonishing day!
So 7 Lords in the cabinet. How is that going to go down with the PLP? And Mandelson has some grand title. It’s an affront that he is even in the cabinet at all but to now infer he is Deputy PM? I would be angrier still if I hadn’t followed Mike’s nod and backed him at 200/1 to be PM on 31/12/09.
So Darling held onto his his job and my 10/1 bet on Osborne being next Chancellor is looking pretty tasty. But Johnson goes to the Home Office and down goes my Woodward bet and my Denham, Milburn, Blunkett trio to be Home Secretary on 31/12/09 all look likely to go the same way.
Will Brown survive? He looks safer now than at midnight last night but it’s still very hard to call. If he does go who will succeeed him? David Miliband had to back Brown if he hopes to become PM this side of the GE so charges of cowardice appear unfair, in my view. Johnson looks like a very poor favourite and Harman remains well in contention.
Brown is like the house guest from hell. He invited himself, has been a dreadful guest and has outstayed his welcome. No one wants him to be there and people are now telling him to his face to push off. But still he refuses to budge.
It is a national embarrassment that he is still our Prime Minister.
Evening all and having been offline since Wed afternoon all I can say is WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So what is Mark Senior saying the almost total LibDem wipeout in Cornwall, Devon and Somerset says for their prospects at the GE or was there there a by-election in the Parish council seat of Wurlitzer South showing a 25% swing from the Tories to LibDems meaning the county council elections are irrelevant?
Did NPMP’s lot hold their county council seat in Broxtowe? They obviously held very little considering the almost wipeout of Labour in Derbyshire.
Has NPMP been made a Government Minister yet? Seems no-one else outside the HoL wants to serve in Brown’s cabinet. Surely we can now add Barrow-on-Furness to Con Gains at the GE with Mr Hutton’s announcement of his retirement?
For a decade Labour has been belittling the absence of Tory councillors in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle city councils. Outside London are there more than 50 Labour county councillors left south of Birmingham?
Labour has LOST 2/3 of its council seats. Two-thirds! Surely large numbers of Labour activists are just going to give up? It’s not much fun plodding on in local politics with only 2 or 3 colleagues for company. For year after year Labour have ignored the dire council results saying they meant nothing for the General Elections.
But once they lose the General Elections they’re going to look behind them and discover there’s no party left to speak of.
Tories will win over 250 seats today. Labour have less than 150 overall - conservatives have 9 times as many councillors - think of the motivated grass roots network that represents- and Labour are fourth, behind “others”…
How can Labour keep Brown?
What was the conservatives lowest number of council seats?
Just listening to replay of GB’s press conference speech - I recoiled instinctively.
419. No I think Gordo sulks in front of the TV. He seems to react to tv stuff very often. Sugar, Goody, Boyle, he’s very happy to comment. The man is a lightweight, and in fact I think he’s in danger of giving even that tag a bad name.
Technical note on navigation (apologies to all those who figured this out)
If you click Newer Comments it takes you to
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/story/#comments
which is always the latest set of comments. If you keep refreshing that page, you potentially miss some comments if a new page has just started.
However the latest set of comments is also available via a numbered link, such as
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/story/comment-page-16/#comments
If you refresh that you always see up to the end of the page. Instead of clicking Newer Comments manually update the page number in the address bar
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/story/comment-page-17/#comments
and you get the latest stuff…
Very interesting how the Lib Dems are eating into the urban vote . They could be on to something here.
Mandelson’s elevation to “First Secretary of State” has uncanny echoes of Major’s desperate elevation of Michael Heseltine to “President of the Board of Trade” .
Both are meaningless honorifics handed out by enfeebled prime ministers to ageing but still menacing rivals.
424 Aren’t Labour celebrating some successes against the SNP.
424 - What is he always saying about real votes?
Do the Tories have a chance in Norwich North?
420. They didn’t just lose them, especially in Devon and Somerset the Tories gave them an absolute caning! The lesson for Clegg is damage limitation against the Tories and go all out for Labour. Bristol shows that there are a lot of disenchanted Labour voters out there who the LD’s could pick up and make some major gains off Labour at the GE. I still think incumbency will limit their losses to the Tories but there must be a lot of the LD MP’s in that part of the world feeling very nervous tonight!
Can someone please, please tell me why Brown is still fighting on? For what end? For what purpose? To lead the Labour party into oblivion perhaps. Well bloody done
433 a very good chance - they start from 33% or so against an unpopular government in a seat they held in the 80s
Possible shock - Holland going well in 20/20 vs England.
Brown being compared to hitler by pundit on sky, then backtracks “no-he’s more like stalin really. And this is stalingrad. Lots of enemies have been made today, they will be back”. Now saying Brown treated his wife badly! Crikey!
He’s convinced beyond any reason that He is The Man to lead the country, and the cabinet have not done him in because they figure if they’re going to go down anyway they may as well stick with Gord and postpone the inevitable - until something else changes.
The BBC’s gross total of councillors is astonishing.
The Tories have 1330.
The Libbers have 439.
Labour have…. 159.
Labour are in fact equal third with “Others”.
They are staring utter disaster in the face. There is every reason to believe that, if they keep Brown, something like this will be their fate at the General Election.
Yet still they keep buggering on.
434 Some media have been saying that with the usual bit of fun extrapolation from the Bristol results Primarolo would be out in Bristol South which is 160th or thereabouts on the Lib Dem target list from Labour.
Can we get share of the vote anywhere?
Brown is going nowhere,
he hates us and cares only for his will.
There will be no general election.
Why was Bristol the only city voting today?
435. tyson. Brown believes that he is doing the right thing. Only Brown can save the economy. I honestly think he believes most of the carp he spouts - like his lies about the banks - how the Tories would have done nothing, despite the honourable attempt at bipartisan support that Cameron gave during the crisis.
Brown is a whack job.
430 Mandelson IS the “President of the Board of Trade”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_State_for_Business,_Enterprise_and_Regulatory_Reform#President_of_the_Board_of_Trade_.281786.E2.80.931963.29
437 Did Jonah back them?
434 - Yes, which might make them tie up resources or if they don’t they could diminish in number across the South West.
438 That was Tom Bower, his biographer, An essential read.
435 T
Brown has defined himself by his purposes.
He is viciously anti-tory;
He is viciously pro-Brown;
take away his job and he is lost.
That is why he keeps repeating the same stock phrases and places himself in a context against that which he seeks to defeat.
Tyson. I rather doubted people on here when they said nothing would make Brown stand down, he’ d’ have to be dragged out by men in white coats… Its qyute incredible. That press conference - he’s lost it. Minister calling him sexist buLly… Bonkers bonkers…
441 - This is the problem with the BBC’s model. It seems that the LibDems rather large projected share of 28% is almost all based on one Bristol Council.
435. He must believe in the old saying “L’Etat? C’est Moi!
434 - There is no doubt that the Lib Dems got a pasting in Devon, but Somerset was much tighter. I’d expect that Younger-Ross and his mirrors is probably toast (and possibly Nick Harvey in North Devon), but the Somerset results suggests the Lib Dems won’t challenge in the seats they don’t hold, but are still strong in their held seats. Laws is safe, Browne in Taunton benefits from boundary changes and has a good chance of holding on. Heath in Somerton and Frome has a get out of jail free card in the Tory candidate - Annunziata Rees-Mog.
We have had a very good day today, with just one set back in a tight seat to an independent.
Otherwise the results were astounding. We overturned Labour majorities of between 16 and 25%.
Note of caution. UKIP feedback suggests UKIP will do very well on Sunday.
455 sorry. European feedback suggests…etc UKIP will do very well.
440 those figures should have Labour MPs dragging Brown out of No.10 by his heels -
but nothing happens.
Unbelievable
455. SallyC. Well done.
456 - Although what happens with the Tories, UKIP, Lib Dems etc in the Euro elections will probably be overshadowed by the continuing disintegration of the Government.
“The rebels haven’t gone away”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3674708/the-rebels-havent-gone-away.thtml
450- But the consensus seems to be that Brown’s approach always amounts to angling for immediate advantage while ignoring the big picture. What immediate advantage would there be to him in resigning? It would be only humiliation and defeat. That’s why he doesn’t want to go.
457. BP. But after todays performance would you really want the next leader to be the postie, Miliband or the only man amongst them, Harriet, who will be incredibly unpopular?
459 - I think we have to consider the possibility of Labour getting 15% in Euro Election. I just don’t believe this 23% share. Anyone know what their actual share was in the areas where county elections were held?
451- James A- agreed entirely. Incredible. Brown is off the radar. As mas as a box of Albanian frogs.
I wonder what he said to the ministers to keep their loyalty last night. Oh to be a fly on the wall.
Now add 5% to the Conservative vote at the general election from those who voted UKIP.
England in real danger of losing to Holland in 20/20.
So less than 2 years ago Brown set up the Department of Innovation Universities and Skill and today he abolished it. This 12 year Labour government has created more work for signwriters than any in history surely?
455 how well Sally? 20% plus??
450.
http://cache.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/61579/Pierre-Beregovoy
Reminds you of anyone?
463- no way are Labour getting 15% on Sunday. I would be surprised if they beat the Greens
Caroline Flint is obviously kicking herself after her antics last night. How many of the new cabinet having seen the presser are now thinking WTF??
465 - Did UKIP get 5% in the Locals.
Are there figures somewhere?
Here are the results for St Ives district (two to be elected) of Cambridgeshire county council. I draw your attention to the 5th, 6th and 7th placed candidates.
Reynolds, Kevin Antony Conservative 2553
Pegram, Dennis Roy Conservative 2307
Hodge, David Frederick Liberal Democrat 1543
Waters, Robin Sherwood Liberal Democrat 1412
Jug, Lord Toby The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 566
Allen, Richard John Labour 362
Richards, Angela Louise Labour 343
464
Judging from Flint’s reaction today, he must have been telling people something - anything to keep them onside through the reshuffle.
The only person to have really profitted is Mandy - deputy PM
re 412. We have now moved up to 50 comment per page. I’ll move it to 100 as things settle down.
This demand management makes a fantastic different to our ability to keep going
Being down at 25 was awful but necessary.
Today so far we have had 240,503 hits and we’ve kept stable.
Question, please. Can anyone point me to a site where I might verify (or not) check this unequivocal roundup by Boulton, earlier in the day?
“Look you have to understand that this has been the biggest swing EVER in British electoral history, second only to Blair in 1997. A fairly massive day for the Tories.’
He obviously got it from somewhere, but where? I didn’t record it. Darn.
472 - Wasn’t it being beaten by the OMRL that finished off the old SDP?
462. I was shocked at just how awkward Johnson was when being interviewed outside of the Home Office. He sounded genuinely shocked to be there and didn’t project confidence at all; a couple of standout lines (paraphrasing)
“Yes, it’s a real privilege, you know, one of the three big government departments”
“I never expected to progress beyond the rank of junior minister…”
… This is a man promoted to the most demanding job in government saying he never thought he’d get beyond the rank of junior minister? He was floundering. I thought he’d take it much more in his stride but then I realised - Johnson, this Colossus-Of-A-Politician, was an invention of the Guardianistas and wishful thinking Labourites. He’s never really been more than a fairly down-to-earth, modest guy. He’s not a big hitter.
… And Glenys Kinnock and Bob Ainsworth? Don’t make me laugh! Kinnock is a dinosaur from a bygone age and it is frankly an insult to the grand old MOD that such a laughable pigmy such as Ainsworth has been parachuted in there today.
… Add to this a cabinet with a ridiculously low number of women, the return of UberTrougher Hain and more unelected appointments than you can shake a stick at, and it looks like a bad joke. A very bad joke. What have these people done to the proud old Labour Party!? It’s laughable.
475 - He didn’t say that. He said that to win the next election would require the second biggest swing, therefore claims about Conservative performance “not being enough” did not take account of what they had to do under the electoral system at present.
Anyone see Bower say this? ‘He’s a mysogynist and always has been He has always treated women badly - he’s also a Stalinist, a Marxist, a bully.’
Naice.
474. Appreciate the difficulties Mike, but if you want the site to grow you are gonna have to sort the server problem - or the site will be self-limiting: as you keep moving to 25-comments-a-page people will drift away.
Are you moving to another server as has been rumoured?
Apart from that, gratitude for your work as ever! And likewise Robert and Morus.
By the way, if you’ve enjoyed today’s sight of an arrogant governing party getting a brutal and well deserved kicking from the electorate and if you would like to see some more, then can I suggest tomorrow’s count in Ireland? All the local authorities are up for re-election as well as 2 Dail by-elections in Dublin Central and Dublin South, the latter is for a seat previously held by the late Fianna Fail Minister Seamus Brennan, Bertie Ahern’s brother is standing in Dublin Central but if the polls are right he has absolutely no chance.
RTE’s online election results service will be available here; http://www.rte.ie/news/elections/results_pages.html
If you can get RTE through Sky in GB then I think RTE 1 is on Channel 161.
475 Alex, Sorry - I definitely remember it very differently!
50 comments per page now. Thanks Mike!
This has just gone beyond bizarre. Brown is utterly without any credibility, with his economic policies exposed, most of the PLP wanting him gone, and consistently testing 20% in the polls.
Yet, it almost seems as if he will cling on. Unreal how little guts they have. Perhaps the legacy of the Blair era on Labour - they’re all so used to waiting on a line from Downing Street, none have any initiative whatsoever.
Labour have now lost more than 300 seats.
475 - Alex, the reason I remember it thus is that I was gobsmacked and very sceptical!
472 - Brilliant! Almost as enjoyable as Caroline Flint’s letter.
Sky Tracker shows Labour have lost over 300 seats. Ouch.
Tories fail to capitalize, no breakthrough:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/elections/article6439227.ece
Sounds crazy, but this is the sort of spin Brown needs to hang on. Will this give the PLP enough hope or indecision to result in the defusing of the revolt?
485. Astonishing! :O
Goodwife Dale putting in a decent performance on BBC News 24.
“I am embarrassed to have this man as my prime minister”.
472 John Loony will be pleased. Although Lord Toby Jug’s performance was not as impressive as that of Stuart Basil Fawlty Hughes who managed to win Sidmouth Rural in 1993, against Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dem opposition, and who polled a very respectable 1,200 votes when he stood for Honiton constituency in 1992.
WRT projected national vote share, it’s a very artificial exercise. It’s clear the Conservatives got the votes where they needed them, to maximise their seat gains.
484. Again the parallels with the fall of the Third Reich are spooky. Everyone knew the game was up, even Hitler but he was too vain to surrender. In the end even people like Goring and Himmler were desperate to try and find a way out but no one had the guts to stand up to Hitler!
489. No, because deepn down Labour MP’s know that the seats and councils the Tories have won do not tally with the projected national share. The Tories are putting on more votes in key areas than the national share suggests they should be. Labour are in deep, deep trouble and they know it.
452. Alex - that’s not quite true; it will also have drawn on Lab-LD marginal areas in the counties (e.g. Burnley, Oxford, Cambridge, Norwich) and on the parties’ relative vote shares in the counties more generally. But the point stands - the trend to the Tories in the shires is better substantiated at present than the trend to the Lib Dems in urban areas.
Today is the 65th anniversary of D-Day. By the end of that day in 1944, if not before, all sensible German generals knew that they had lost the war; but it went on all the same, with appalling destruction, for another 11 months. I wonder if Mr Brown will reflect on this point as he pays his tribute on the Normandy beaches.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5455491/The-raging-storm-that-turned-Gordon-Brown-and-Labour-into-a-nervous-wreck.html
440 - If you look at Brown, he has none of the tools required by the modern politician. He has no charisma, is not much of a public speaker, cannot think well on his feet so is a poor debater, (why do you think he just repeats the same stock phrases?), cannot establish empathy, and the list just goes on.
Given all that, the fact that he has arrived where he is today is down to backroom manoevring, an excess of self-belief, and utterly laser focused ambition and determination to get where he wants to go. He has spent decades ruthlessly scheming and skewering anyone who got in his way, right up to the ‘coronation’.
This is what he has planned and worked for most of his life, to get himself - and it’s all about himself, not the party or the nation - into Number 10.
Well, now he’s there, and calculating and vindictive and vengeful as ever, he’s achieved his ambition, he’s got his prize, and he’s going to enjoy every minute until they prise it out of his hands one finger at a time.
Of course - I could be wrong, but that’s the way it looks right now.
He is utterly convinced of the righteousness of his cause and that eventually we will see how wonderful he really is and what he has done for the country. The ultimate ’self-made man who admires his creator’.
I don’t see what else could account for the way things are going.
He’s daring them to take him down, as they will be taking themselves down at the same time.
484. The Labour Party have been spineless, generally. They go to the brink and then always back off.
However, when parties have deposed leaders in the past (thinking Thatcher in 1990 and to some extent Blair in 2007) there is a certain factor that most politicians have that actually makes them step down.
That is quitting for the sake of the party.
Thatcher knew she had to do it. Blair knew he had to do it. This, the two power hungry (and frankly, in the case of Maggie in her final years, off the rails) post war Prime Ministers, and THEY quit. Because even though they could have struggled on they realised their party would be irrevocably damaged and potentially condemned to an eternity of opposition.
But Gordon CANNOT quit. He will not do something that the proud Mrs Thatcher did, and stand down for the sake of his party. He would rather drag Labour down into the abyss of infighting and electoral oblivion just for a few more months in the top job.
That is the mark of the man. A man with no honour. He does not do his party or his country any credit whatsoever.
Can someone make sure BBC quote the correct voting percentages at the end of counting as 23% for Labour looks ridiculous, most councils were sub 20%.
493. The Watcher
Thats why i do the bunker cremation - people may think it sick but i think it funny!
500. I know! Those Downfall mashups are getting very close to reality now!
I think Johnson has killed any chance of becoming leader today
He is now firmly linked with the Brown project and will go down with it.
“Cabinet reshuffle: David Miliband disappoints backbenchers (again)”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/james_kirkup/blog/2009/06/05/cabinet_reshuffle_david_miliband_disappoints_backbenchers_again
Has anyone yet explained why Sir Alan Sugar had to be made a Lord for his appointment???
I’m still gaping at Gordon’s press conference, a historic gaffe moment.
502 - as LBJ would say, it’s better to have him inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.
504. I doubt even Brown knows why!
Does anyone know if there is an online video of the press conference?
Thanks.
Dyed woollie.
We had a two councillor ward with majorities or 24.35% and 28.45% over us in 2005. We topped the poll this time and our second man missed out on the second spot by 30 votes.
501 - There must be a load of people putting together new ones at this time.
“What the nation will take from this is the image of a prime minister whose authority has been drained and a cabinet that offers little hope of tackling the challenges facing Britain. Labour’s big beasts now sit on its backbenches. Mr Brown promises another clutch of committees and commissions for everything and anything. All will be useless without the leadership and political purpose that has gone missing from Downing Street.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e22f207c-5201-11de-b986-00144feabdc0.html
504
Sir Alan had to be made a Lord so Gordon could have seven Lords a leaping in the Cabinet - one for each day of the week..
Without him there would only be six.
(It’s as good an explanation as any)
492 - Sean Fear.
Have you got any figures on the BNP vote nationally and how the Greens and UKIP have done?
There are still betting opportunities out their in the Euro s
509 Was that to UKIP Sally??
Sorry, I am being thick I know - I am just trying to get a handle on Sundays likely projections..
Putting my feet up after a lively period and I’ve got a Today interview at 830 tomorrow, so I’ll just reply briefly to the query upthread. We lost our marginal division, though just on a 5% swing to the Tories since 2005 - not a bad result, considering, and a reminder that Broxtowe is not a pushover. In the other close race, the Indie supported by Labour and LibDems failed to unseat the Tory Education spokesman by 11 votes after three recounts.
In the non-marginals interest slumped and both Labour and Tory votes fell in every case, though Labour by more for the obvious reasons - neither side made a big effort outside the two key seats, and the electorate noticed. No other Broxtowe seats changed hands, though the LDs gained Eastwood in neighbouring Ashfield.
For those seeking glints of Labour light, note 4 Labour gains in Oxford in Andrew Smith’s constituency. He was privately predicting that last week, and I think he would get an attentive audience if he offered colleagues a semniar on how he does it (they made gains last year too IIRC).
The Euro results could be worse, though. We were seeing a general pattern during the verification of good local candidates doing better than the more anonymous Euro vote.
502. If I were James Purnell I’d be getting Flint, Blears, Hutton, Clarke, Byers, Milburn and their cronies into a room and plan the next move.
There are too many big beasts outside the cabinet now for Gordon. They can easily form a powerful front to depose him if they so wish. It is wrong to suggest that everything is plain sailing for Gordo from now on - he has Blears, Flint and Purnell on the backbenches, and alongside Clarke and the other usual suspects there is enough focus and energy there to really cause trouble.
… Purnell’s resignation reminded me very much of Heseltine’s. It’s now up to someone to play the Howe role (though at the moment, tricky to see who that would be).
508- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8086353.stm
Anyone care to predict what the polls will be saying in a few weeks if, as expecting, the expenses story fades into the background?
504 - I don’t know if Sir Alan likes his wee dram and gets drunk as a lord - but if he does then Brown may as well make him one.
James a asks “What was the conservatives lowest number of council seats?”
Best to compare as a %. The lowest 5 for Conservatives was 19% in 1996. Today Labour have 21%.
520 “5″ = %.
Is the press conference online anywhere in full?
Nick, do you think Labour will finish behind UKIP in the Euro’s?
Thank you very much, Me.
519. Is Lord Sugar going to be a minister? If so, I suppose for impartiality reasons the Beeb cannot broadcast The Apprentice any longer (though just watch ‘em).
… I think we should be told!
OMFG: check the Italian website for (ahem) my book, just sent me by my Italian editor:
http://www.longanesi.it/segretodellagenesi/index.php
lol!
The trailer just made me ejaculate. But then, I am *l’autore*.
515 - Oxford Labour made progress at the expense of the Greens
This has little to do with any positive impression Labour has created in the city (their running of the city council has been less than popular) and plenty to do with the posturing self-aggrandising of the local Greens
525 - no it’s a joke appointment with no purpose.
525 - Sugar can’t be a minister without giving up his business interests and so is having an ‘advisory’ position
Which makes his elevation to the Lords even odder
Are we expecting any dynamite stories to come out from the papers this evening?
England set for defeat lol. Absolutely useless.
515- Well, I’m sure the narrow defeats could not be attributed to your lack of effort in canvassing!
On another note, the Guardian map shows election results yet to come in from the Isles of Scilly. Somehow this critical battle has been largely overlooked on PB…
Evening all
No sense trying to spin this - a poor set of results overall for the LDs. The loss of Devon and Cornwall will be a serious blow and if I were Andrew George in particular, I’d be worried.
Somerset was predictable though as others have said, the LDs have held well in the south of the county so the Tories still have work to do.
I went to the Surrey County Council count in Kingston late morning. The Conservatives were always going to hold comfortably but it wasn’t straightforward with losses in Elmbridge to the Residents the most surprising.
The Conservative-LD battle across the County finished fairly even with LD gains in Tandridge, Spelthorne and Woking offset by two losses in Guildford which looks secure for the Tory MP. Ashtead has always been an Independent area and is so again while the Tories took one Labour seat but were well short in another.
Overall, Conservatives 56 (-3), LDs 13 (+1), Residents Groups 9 (+2), Labour 1 (-1), Independent 1 (+1)
All that aside, one positive out of today is the hundreds of Tory seats that will be cropped in 2013 during the Cameron Government’s midterm trough.
I know that these elections were generally held in areas that are naturally more favourable to the Tories and Lib Dems than to Labour but still, the scale of the numbers is extraordinary.
For every 11 seats each party took into the elections:
- The Conservatives have come out with 13
- The Lib Dems have come out with 10
- Labour has come out with FOUR.
- For every Labour seat won, the Lib Dems have won two and three-quarters.
- For every Labour seat won, the Conservatives have won eight and a half.
Ref Labour’s share for the Euros.
Labour scored a projected 23% if we believe the TV channels. That’s with 11% going to ‘others’. In the Euros, we can reasonably expect Others to score a minimum of something like UKIP 15%, Green 8%, BNP 6%, SNP+Plaid 4%, minnows 3%: a total of 36%, leaving just 64% for the big three - and probably less. Pro rata-ing would leave Labour with 16.5%, although I’m not sure that’s a reliable way of doing it (I still think the Lib Dems are more likely to finish fourth than Labour). Even so, a sub-20% share looks certain and sub-18% entirely possible.
529. This isn’t just the most chaotic reshuffle in history, it’s also been the most embarrassing. Alan Sugar, FFS. Glenys Kinnock. Bob Ainsworth.
The equivalent would have been John Major appointing Norman St John Stevas, Keith Chegwin, and some old bloke he met in the pub.
529 - is the Prime Minister even allowed to appoint people to the Lords at will, without any just cause. If the Opposition Parties kick up a fuss, will the Queen be forced to refuse the appointment?
what title will he take?
Lord Sugar of Icing?
Lord Sugar of Tate & Lyle?
Lord Brown Sugar?
526-Picked up your book today in Borders!
There IS a God. Lab 4th behind the Monster Raving Loonies in St Ives. h/t Obo http://obotheclown.blogspot.com/2009/06/interesting-result.html.
http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/council/democracy/elections/elections2009/candidatesandresults/division.htm?division=st_ives
@498. I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. Thatcher faced an actual leadership challenge. This has not happened to Brown yet and it remains to be seen how we reacts under such circumstances.
In general, it is easy to say Brown should step down, but look at it from his perspective: he appears to have devoted his life to the party and seems to have little private life beyond it. Unlike other former PMs, his party will try to keep him away as far as possible if and when he resigns. He would be left with nothing. He doesn’t have to be deluded to cling to power. What happens in 2010 is unlikely to be better, but simply cannot be worse for him.
It is not him who is mad. It is those who allow him to “get on with the job”.
Test.
535. Indeed, it is perhaps the most embarrassing government in history. Bow before the might of Bob Ainsworth! Wonder at the skill of Glenys Kinnock!
Behold. The best talent Brown could find in the Labour Party.
522- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8086353.stm
Has anyone tracked down the last time when there were 8 unelected Cabinet Members - even though 5 are “right to attends”?
Victorian Times or wartime?
Matt
533- That’s the best thing to say about this election for Labourites looking for the silver lining: this has to be the Tories’ highwater mark in the locals, and this ought to be the last local election for quite a while where Labour will be moving backwards and the Tories forwards.
536. Yep. Royal Assent is just a formality.
But I can’t disguise my distain for Gordon nattering on about how he didn’t have lavender lists and wanted full scale democratic reform on Sunday, 5 days before he appointed the most unelected Cabinet ministers since probably circa 1965…
No cabinet resignations in last 30 minutes - obviously very bad news for the Conservatives at the end of a disappointing day for them.
527. Note also that turnout was quite low in several of the Oxford East divisions where Labour won seats:
East Oxford (1 gain from Greens in 2-member ward) turnout 29%
Headington and Marston (1 gain from LD in 2-member ward) turnout 39%
Barton and Churchill (Lab leader retained seat in 2-member ward against strong LD challenge) turnout 32%
Cowley and Littlemore (2 Lab holds) turnout 26%
Leys and Lye (2 Lab holds) turnout 22%
oh dear - just seen that Dawm Primarolo has been made Minister for Children
That is just cruel
She has all the empathy as the Childcatcher from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
534. David Herdson. And using your pro-rata method would give us a Tory share of 27.3%, which is ballpark for the Tories.
Peter2 - muchas gracias.
I’ve spent the day either trying to get through to the tax office or arguing with them - whilst listening to the BBC drip poison about the Conservatives - it’s enough to make you want to emigrate for a year.
534 - good post.
I have no doubt that the best Labour can hope for in the Euros is third. But when you have three parties all in the mid teens a few dozen votes across a few dozen seats could make a big difference.
But it is going to be bloody for Labour - very bloody.
544 - haven’t checked but possibly Gladstone?
546 - Are you sure? If Gordon announced he was going to appoint 100 peers it wouldn’t be a formality. The fact is that Alan Sugar is not being made a minister, and i think the Opposition Parties will have good cause to kick up an almighty racket about it.
544. I did check something similar. There were seven peers in Churchill’s cabinet in 1952-3. That is a smaller number but a larger proportion, especially as that was full cabinet i.e. not including ‘right to attenders’.
Finally hurrah! At last I’m back……
What’s been going on? Both with Pb.com and this damn Government.
Firstly the net seat changes (extrapolated from the Sky figures including Suffolks results)
Con +275
Lab -322
LD -44
Shropshire is still outstanding:
Conservative - 23 Councillors
Liberal Democrat - 6 Councillors
Labour - 1 Councillor
Independent - 1 Councillor
This is worse than Labour’s worst nighmare……
As a postcript it seems the BBC gave up updating their figures once Labour lost 250 seats. Once it was officially a disaster that was it!
Sky says Tories have now gained 265, which puts them above and beyond range posited by BBC for a good Tory night.
558 see 402.
555. As i said earlier i think that it is a way of trying to detox and disguise the fact that Sugar has donated £1 Million to Labour according to the daily Mail.
If he was just made a Peer - the old cash for peerages would be seen as being started up. In a sense this legitamises the Peerage.
I remember Alan Sugar in an interview with a female Pravda journo saying he liked his luxeries and would not want to go back traveling with the masses! An asspirant Lord?
550 - I think you mean Don Primarola (\at least according to Brown)
557. That could be the number of LD MP losses at the next election - 44! Yellow Taxi!
559- Ha! I did answer you but I see it’s still in moderation…
Here’s my answer:
“402- That’s a fair evaluation. I think that, at least at this point, both New Jersey and Virginia have to be judged as very close contests, with the GOP a slight favorite in Virginia and a true toss-up in New Jersey. But frankly, a GOP loss in either state would be a serious disappointment given the circumstances.*
*Note that in Corzine’s first run for statewide office in New Jersey, in 2000, he won by only 3 points despite spending about $50 million in a blue state. That was even before he had built up such a terrible record (record high taxes, record high car 1nsurance rates, record high property taxes, terrible school performances, etc.).”
It’s worth mentioning how well the Tories did, amidst and despite Scamalot. Remember, at one point in the Telegraph’s revelations it looked like the Conservatives would come off worse than Labour.
Yet they have romped to historic victories in terms of councils and seats, and only taken a fairly minor hit in terms of vote share.
This is all down to Cameron’s astute and ruthless leadership. His (surviving) MPs should be suitably grateful.
“Britain has had enough of Gordon Brown’s Government
Telegraph View: the antics of the Cabinet have been nothing short of a disgrace”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/5455785/Britain-has-had-enough-of-Gordon-Browns-Government.html
561
From the south of sicily?
What happened in Bedford for the poor Tory result?
I can see 3 NOCs: Cumbria, Cornwall and Bedford.
So except for two places at either end of the country and a small town in the south east it’s all a sea of blue. with a splash of yellow in the SW!
Oh dear. From a quick wiki scan, it seems Brown has the same number of cabinet level Lords (aside from the obligatory) as Macmillan. That was around 50 years ago. Way to go Gord. Very democratic.
568, unfair comparison. Didn’t Macmillan win elections?
569. Election singular (1959). Good win though - the best Tory result between 1935 and 1983.
564. Not really. It’s mostly down to Brown and Labour that the Tories are benefiting from. Beyond all the arguments of who was going to come off worse in the expenses the Tories were always going to come out with superb council results facing the current lot.
How crap is Broad? He has missed 2 easy run outs and a catch in 3 balls of the final over - Netherlands need 4 off 3 balls…
523: will Labour get less than UKIP in the Euros? Not sure about that - more likely to be behind the LibDems, I think. There wasn’t any great UKIP charge (and the BNP seemed to be getting nowhere much) and they’ll probably fall back in the E Mids at least (they had Kilroy and came a close second to the Tories here last time). Whether it’s the perceived suitability of the Euros as a protest vote or the low position on the ballot paper or something else, I do think we’ll be down on the County performance, probably in the 15-20 range. What do others think? - no reason to exaggerate or play down now, since we’ll know shortly.
Here’s another Labour activist whose doorstep encounters seem to have been quite different from those of our friend Nick:
“”On doorsteps [Matthew Cain, an active party member since his teens who lives in Hackney, east London] had found the mood among voters shifting over the last fortnight from “unbridled anger” to disdain: “The public now just view us with complete contempt.”"
Also of interest:
“The Labour MP for Chorley, Lindsay Hoyle, said grassroots members were angry at the “treacherous behaviour” of senior figures such as former communities secretary Hazel Blears.
“People are also bitterly disappointed with James Purnell. More consideration should have been given to the damage this is causing the party.”"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/05/labour-party-activists-gordon-brown-james-purnell
Labour’s circular firing squad is apparently armed to the teeth and not taking any prisoners.
551-Lo leere’ en el avio’n de vuelta a Kaz.
574. This could get brutal after Sunday.
573
Lib Dems Pro-european views will see them well down on their county scores I think? That was true 5 years ago
A very disappointing night for the Conservatives …
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e201156fccfe95970c-pi
563 Thanks. I think though it would be less surprising than at first glance. The Democratic brand is unquestionably more tainted in NJ for obvious reasons. There is an unpopular incumbent running for re-election which the VA constitution does not allow and even if it did Kaine has reasonable ratings. Plus of course the Washington crowd have far more bigger favours owed to the VA Democrats than the NJ lot. Also if the new junior Senator for VA ever wants to run for President he’ll want to make sure he has a solid base in VA. I do think that actually Christie has contrarily the better fight on his hands.
573. I think you will definitely be under 20, possibly even nearer 15 than 20 (I predicted you would get 20+ in the pb poll, but things have… moved on, haven’t they?)
Sub-20 should provoke a challenge to Gordo, but with this bunch of bleating pissabeds - AKA the parliamentary Labour party - who knows.
One of the things I noticed looking through the results. Labour now have only 18 County Councillors south of the London / M4 line (they had 21 in Kent alone yesterday). From the Isle of Thanet to Lands End there are only a handful of Labour Councillors (if that) in each county. Perhaps they should be made an endangered species?
Doesn’t look good for Labour MPs in the south at all. Perhaps someone should make Labour County councillors in the
Collingwood = Brown
Just to change the subject and the mood, we are now warned that the Dollar is almost so much waste paper:
From CNBC below
A currency crisis is imminent, so investors should avoid shorting the market, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
Apologies for earlier Prodicus.
Boulton did say this was the second biggest swing against his party.
579. Frankly the LDs could drop 1/4 of their projected vote share for the Euros, and still come second.
And Stuart Broad overthrows to give the Netherlands the win
Utterly disgraceful England performance - Broad missed 3 run outs and a catch in the final over.
LOL
Netherlands win
581 for 565.
I also like Harman’s quote that it was simply untrue that “Gordon doesn’t treat women in politics seriously…”
Is that why he’s essentially got Harman, Cooper and Royall as fully fledged cabinet ministers (and the last one is a nonentity Leader of the Lords). Three women? How pitifully tiny a figure from a party that purports that it cares about sexual equality.
Although all this positive discrimination guff can irritate me, I would like to note that Brown could have made a fairly good headline if he’d appointed a female defence secretary, for instance - would have got a far better reception than the hapless Ainsworth. (I have to keep repeating it whilst shaking my head… Bob Ainsworth - Cabinet Minister. Bob Ainsworth - Cabinet Minister….)
Come on Hattie. Take on the old misogynist!
584 - Indeed. It was obvious England needed wickets in the middle and he spent 8 overs in the middle bowling Wright, himself and Rashid.
Dum question but why are there a few shire counties which didn’t have elections? Berkshire, Northumbria, Cheshire, Herefordshire, maybe a few others judging by the map.
Mike or Robert Smithson
Just in case you don’t already know, you have some kind of DNS problem. A chunk of readers haven’t been able to see PB.com all day and are suffering badly.
Turnout in North Ireland after the verification process:
Lagan Valley 38.86%
• South Belfast 42.1 %
• East Belfast 38.82%
• North Belfast 40.98%
• West Belfast 46.6 %
• South Down 44.97%
• North Down 34.48%
• Mid Ulster 52.83%.
• Newry and Armagh 43.7%
• East Antrim 34.53%
• South Antrim 38.03%
• Strangford 34.24%
• East Londonderry 42.34%
• Foyle 44.35%
• Fermanagh/South Tyrone 51.52%
• West Tyrone 50.27%
• Upper Bann 41.81%
• Newry Armagh 49.05%
• North Antrim 43.17%
OMG I can’t believe this! Losing to Fcking HOLLAND!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the response Nick Palmer, I only care due to a few hundred quid riding on it
Also, were the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections for these seats all also held on GE day?
Does that not make comparisons very hard, since Lib Dem turnouts are always the highest? This must explain their alleged 28% national projected vote share, which is clearly cobblers.
Liberals GOTV is the best by general agreement, no?
592 - Probably have unitary structure rather than county-borough structure.
Berkshire and Cheshire are now entirely made up of unitary authorities, and I think Northumberland is one on its own. So some county councils no longer exist to have elections, and unitary authroities don’t seem to all be at the same time - presumably they’re on a 4 year cycle from when they were set up.
Cheshire had two new unitary elections last year - both conservative wins cheshire west and east
592 - Jon C, some counties don’t have county councils any more, they are divided into unitaries. This is certainly true of Berkshire and cheshire.
Also worth remembering that some county councils don’t cover the whole county. For example Hampshire doesn’t include Southampton or Portsmouth, which are both unitaries. This is another reason why Labour will struggle to get anywhere in the southern county councils for a very long time.
Last part of 9pm bbc news report ended with brown being surprised and looking shocked at being told of flints resignation…cringeworthy…. I’m chewing my knuckles- he will have to be dragged out .
583-Much as I’d like to cheer the factoid, sadly, not quite true. There are a bunch of unitary LA’s (let’s exclude the district councils) that did not vote yesterday and there are certainly Labour cllrs there. Eg Plymouth, Exeter, Southampton, Portmsouth, Kent Towns, etc.
592-Haven’t these been de-”countycised”? ie. they are now composed of several unitary authorities. Though, funnily when H&W was split up, Worcestershire kept the county election schedule, Herefordshire didn’t.
602. But he MUST have known of Flint’s resignation, because he mentioned that Glenys Kinnock was being ennobled to replace her.
I really don’t understand what’s going on.
Did Gordon include Flint in the list of women ministers he read earlier?
I asked this earlier, but may have missed the answer when we were down to 25 replies per page. Why was Bristol the only city voting?
What have I started…
ANyone got an answer about the coincidence of county and GE dates - ‘97, ‘01 and ‘05 all on GE day?
test
604 - God knows what’s going on.
602/4. Maybe he was just hoping he wouldn’t get a question on it.
594. Any idea what that means in terms of result? DUP/SF/UCUNF elected in that order?
603.Indeed in my haste and rapture I should have said County Councillors. I wasn’t actually referring to the the lesser spotted version of the species.
608. Amen to that.
Andrea those NI turnouts look quite high. Turnout probably well above 34% UKwide
581- Again, that’s fair, as there’s a reasonable argument to be had either way! I’m not entirely sure myself whether the GOP’s odds are better in New Jersey or Virginia this year, and you may well be right that New Jersey will turn out to be an easier contest.
593
I also had the problem today.
PB was stuck on April 25th in both Firefox and IE.
test
re 614 I had that problem too, but hitting refresh easily solved it.
Paul Flynn calls for Brown to step down:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8086276.stm
I still have this feeling that whilst Brown is on his way over to France it is all going to kick off again.
I only just realised that Brown had to make Glenys Kinnock a Peer before she could take up her position. I thought she already was one, and this makes her appointment even worse. He actually had to go outside both the Commons and the Lords to find someone that rubbish!
Dyed Woollie.
We were in a battle with Labour. We thought we hadn’t a cat in hells in that seat but worked it anyway to overturn a 1500-1700 majority. As I say, we got one in and narrowly missed another. In a one member seat we turned 700 Labour majority into similiar sized Tory one.
In our Labour Westminster constituency, we now have only one Labour County councillor, one Inde - the rest Tory.
At verification stage, the picture looked very good for UKIP. I think the major parties will recieve a bit of a slap at the Euros.
But it is hard to tell as the boxes you see are only a snap shot of one area.
The Kinnocks are the political equivalent of Jordan and Peter Andre.
A largely talentless couple, who nonetheless amassed millions of pounds, and achieved a kind of success, and became household names, essentially because they were married to each other.
I suppose Neil WAS quite a good speaker, but then again Jordan DOES have nice tits.
sorry if re-posting things that is already known, but……
from the county where the Conservatives don’t have overall control, both “A view from Cumbria” and I have passed the electoral test.
My friend from Sedbergh won by IIRC 12………and I won by a few more than that.
However, the big issue (sounds like a possible good name for some sort of publication!), the big issue was that the Con leader lost..
….in fact by more votes than by which Sedbergh was won.
So, Cumbria remains as NOC…….do you think that deals might be done?
619
Well in both cases my immediate thought is of a pair of t1ts
test
test
615
Of the 3 pc’s in my office, 2 were stuck and the other was fine.
Refreshing or rebooting made no difference.
602 maybe he just made it up on the spot.
Conservatives now have over 300 gains! Pretty good!
618 thanks Sally
603.
I doubt if that would make much difference. I believe Portsmouth has only 1 Labour Councillor.
AH HA!!! I’m back thanks to Scipio and Henry W on Channel 2 TY!!!
Not a friend of Brown but…
Purnell and Flint come out of this looking like complete c***s!!!
Purnell certainly looks like a c*** and flint is clearly so in love with herself - don’t know why!
Can’t think what decent labour like bob marshall-andrews must think of these people!
620. Ian - didn’t Cumbria used to have a Con-LD administration? Might such an arrangement be resurrected?
590- And it wasn’t that long ago that Harriet Harman was standing in for Brown at PMQ’s, crowing about how pro-female the Brown government was compared to the misogynist Tories!
Also from Ms. Harman, during one of her PMQ appearances:
“You shouldn’t underestimate the Prime Minister, who is a man of true grit and determination. He will see the country through the difficult circumstances.”
618 and well done on the Labour snaffling!!
586 Alex - no problem!
(Is there a link to him saying it by any chance?) Still wish I could find something to back it up. 
612. ChrisA. The overall NI turnout reported by BBC is 42%. In 2004 it was 51%
609. David Herdson, BBC think SF may have topped the poll
590
‘I also like Harman’s quote that it was simply untrue that “Gordon doesn’t treat women in politics seriously…”
So if that’s true, then Flint,Blears,Smith,Beckett et al were just crap at their jobs.
619 SeanT - you owe me a keyboard, you wossname.
633 SF will win in NI - just…
632 - he said it when introducing the news at 9pm
Some delusional Labour activists on Sky:
“Problem was the public blaming the Govt for expenses, rather than the party that introduced the system”.
It’s no wonder Labour are so useless if they still blame their woes on Govt actions over 25 years ago. It’s like them all thinking that there was mileage in blaming Thatcher for the Economic crisis.
631 We reduced one of them to tears - and I am not proud of it [any more than is decently acceptable]. These people jeered and whooped when the Tories lost their seats, last time the circle of political life went round. We were much more dignified. We know we are at the high water mark.
616. Given the threat his own seat is under this is hardly surprising.
I haven’t seen much analysis anywhere of what may happen from here.
Assuming there is some sort of orchestrated campaign to oust Brown in the PLP (NPMP said this morning he thought he knew who was behind it), it would seem likely that:
• there will be a few more anti-Brown Labour MPs taking to the airwaves over the next 48 hours;
• a total humiliation for Labour in the Euros;
• maybe more anti-Brownites saying “Go”, “Go Now” or variants on that theme on Monday — maybe declaring their hand? Have they got 71 signatures behind a Name?
• then there’s a scheduled meeting (I understand) of the PLP on Monday evening; if there aren’t 71 signatures Brown won’t go; if there are, he might step down to avoid a leadership contest during an economic and political crisis…
The chances of Brown staying intact until Tuesday? I would say 60%, but I’m not a gambler (I married a Methodist!)
575 - NickP
My thoughts on the Euros are
1.Tories about the same as under Howard, leaking support over expenses and to UKIP. Many voters splitting their vote Tory in the locals and UKIP (or a few Greens) in the Euros.
2.Labour suffering the same effect, to the Greens but amplified by the location of the local elections,few in safe(?) Labour territory.And general disgust of Labour hardcore and activists at the incompetence in Westminster.
3.Lib Dems about the same as last time.Some purer than pure Lib Dems going Green,SW Lib Dems going UKIP but balanced by a few Labour and Tories using them as an anti expenses half protest.
4. UKIP -Usual vote + the last minute protest vote of choice of the rural and right of centre.
5.Greens - Usual vote + the last minute protest vote of the urban and left of centre.
6.BNP - I’m out on my own here but I do not think they will improve much over 2004 and the local results show them making no advances.
So.
Tory 28%
UKIP 20%
Labour 16%
Lib Dem 16%
Green 13%
BNP 5%
639 I am going to have to do some pitching in for the Gibson by-election special.
Nailed on arse-kicking for Labour.
“Lord Mandelson promises to stand by Gordon Brown despite resignations”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6440728.ece
I wonder if this sets a precedent? No, not being shouted at in supermarkets but leaving the Commons?
If Gibson goes, why has Chaytor and Morley and the Luton MP not gone?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5453955/Labour-MP-Ian-Gibson-resigns.html
641. Presumably the Progress (Flint and Byers) meeting on Monday evening (6.45pm IIRC) will be just before the PLP meeting. I wonder what the plan is.
Brief summary of women in politics 1832 - 2009
A big step forward: Suffragettes 1900s
A big step back: Caroline Flint 2009!
627-Fair enough. A quick glance gives me of the non-voting first tier councils:
Bournemouth 3
Bracknell Forest 3
Brighton & H 13
Luton 26
Medway 13
Milton Keynes 13
North Somerset 3
Portsmouth 2
Poole 0
Plymouth 20
Southampton 14
Swindon 14
West Berks 0
Wokingham 0
Windsor & M 0
Torbay 0
Slough 23
Probably missed a few, but guess get the message. Plenty of Labour cllrs still around south of the M4 BUT I am also guessing these cllrs represent far smaller wards than those represented by county cllrs and some would have been elected in better years than today. Actually, all of them!!
575 - NickP
Euro Predictions
Tory 28%
UKIP 20%
Labour 16%
Lib Dem 16%
Green 13%
BNP 5%
OMG BBC showing the whole of the first ten minutes of Brown’s press conference, and not the subsequent questions. It’s a bl**dy Party Political Broadcast.
re 593. We are aware of the problem. I can’t work out why it only applied to a section of visitors.
test
628 - Ave it, I wondered where you were on this day of all days!
645 SDP style breakaway of 50 MPs under the leadership of Charles Clarke.
Party to be named the ‘Good Ship Walrus’
Alan Sugar - only recorded case of a rat buying scuba gear and joining a sunken ship.
Edwina Currie lambasting Labour women for expecting special treatment. Was this the woman whose chosen route to ministerial office was to sleep with the future Prime Minister?
“A shell of a man, propelled by anger and pride
Gordon Brown has brought his Government and his party to their knees. Shackled together, they crawl hopelessly on”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6440451.ece
I find it staggering that (according to Sky figures with 33 of 34 councils declared) out of 496 Labour Councillors, 324 LOST and only 172 managed to hold on to their seats. The Tories exceeded expectations to gain 274 seats.
Labour ware already supposed to be down to the bedrock for heaven’s sake - yet still they lose!
All this, and Gordon still in place. Wonderful for the Conservatives, but I am sad for the country.
Oxford City has gone in a different direction than the rest of the county again this year with Labour making gains from LD and Greens.
Tom Bower getting a repeat on News 24
Labour have lost around 330 councillors. This is a disaster beyond anyone predictions or expectations. This is a truely apocolyptic result! Tories have gained 275 councillors, but still the BBC are clinging to this ludicrous idea that the Conservatives aren’t doing well enough!
“Gordon Brown has survived this time, but his future is still in doubt”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article6440378.ece
656 - to be fair, they weren’t at their bedrock in this set of elections - first time for 16 years they haven’t coincided with General Election.
657 - don’t forget they also lost several seats to the Tories in the rest of the county
Oxfordshire saw quite a lot of movement
661. Yep, back in 1993 John Smith was still leading the Labour Party and voters were still kicking the Tories for Black Wednesday. How things change…
Cameron saying “we’re 15 point ahead of Labour”
So all the Tory “Pravda” voter projection dullards on here can shut up.
Dave goes with the 38%
660 - Interesting - suggests that Sugar’s elevation to the Lords could be blocked…
Someone said on here that Gibson would stand as an independent in the byelection, but this is not confirmed in a few news reports on the story. Will he in fact run as an independent?
666 - no
664
Yhe dullards are people like you whoo think that the Tories being 15 points ahead of Labour in these elections means they wiull only be 15 points ahead in the general election. Add at least 5% back on for UKIP and other protest voters and you might be a bit nearer to the real poll lead.
647. Since when was Luton south of the M4? Or Slough?
664 Tim “Cameron saying “we’re 15 point ahead of Labour”
So all the Tory “Pravda” voter projection dullards on here can shut up.
Dave goes with the 38%”
Absolutely! - but where does this leave that stupid ComRes poll of June 1st. They have a lot of explaining to do at ComRes.
667- Should be a slam dunk for the Tories then, given that the local Labourites are in open war with the PLP over Gibson’s punishment, condemning the action as one taken by a “kangaroo court.”
661 - Any Constitutional Reform from either party should preclude Governments using the timing of elections to coincide and suit them.
These elections were due just before the expenses scandal broke.
Well done Gordon.
670 - From now on, ComRes are to be known by their full name Comedy Results.
655 - Thanks for that link.
test
Been in meetings all day helping our leading companies ‘avoid’ wasting any more money on this woeful excuse for a government. Corporation Tax planning not IHT but lots of ideas for that as well if certain lefties are interested.
Incidentally all the lawyers and big four tax teams in overdrive planning and advising around 50% tax rate and pension theft. Suffice to say our considered view is that the new rates and rules are very likely to cost the Treasury.
Stunning Conservative success in the politics area. No voters suffering Labour councils anymore, hundreds of seats won and the very best surprise of all..these idiotic lemmings seem determined to leave the biggest Conservative vote winner since Maggie in situ…bliss (shame about the cricket but I am not going to let that ruin the perfect Tory day)
Stunning day for Cameron and one that the Beeb look pathetic trying to spin away.
666 From what has been reported Gibson will not stand.I believe - as a Norwich North voter - that if he did, he would win!
All this predicted the General from this is nonsense as anyone on the ground will tell you. For instance, we had 3 seats already held and 5 to contest. the 3 held had very little work and would have significant vote that wasn’t motivated to go out. The others had big BNP and Liberal votes. So what use is the results for predicting: limited.
Test
“Since when was Luton south of the M4? Or Slough?”
Since NuLabour and the progressives (Shirley Williams et.al) introduced the comprehensives.
Matthew Parris in fine form;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6440451.ece
“Since when was Luton south of the M4? Or Slough?”
Since Labour and the progressives (Shirley Williams et.al) introduced the comprehensives.
662. I first wrote “Oxford” but then added City as I realized they’ve done well just there and got trashed in the other parts of the county
New thread
EU Election prediction survey
Just testing
The BBC election graphics have been stuck for 3 hours now, refusing to complete the Tory triunph. How pathetic can a once respected organization get?
I hope that if David cameron becomes PM he will emasculate the BBC by freezing or reducing the licence fees.
New thread? Where? I can’t see it!
684 - I can’t see this new thread.
686 BBC ALWAYS behind the pace - on news, sport, anything!
Stick with sky
Mike where’s the link?
threadless in gaza
688 james - access problems to this site kept me out of the way!
I’m not just window dressing, I’m a very important cabinet minister.
Honestly, look…
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2009/5/6/1241625408881/Caroline-Flint-wearing-hi-001.jpg
Site still causing issues. Now can’t see new thread and had to perform the jiggery pokery suggested on pb2 to even get me here.
688-I thought I was mad.
691 - Shocking!! Well your back now.
Ah the irony, bit like some of Gordon Brown’s faux pas.
Have not been able to access all day; maybe we should pay a basic subscription to get more reliability? It seems to have been stuck on April 25th, which was, clearly, not the most interesting day of the year.
I started the day/week thinking that there was no way Team Brown could continue, but in an era of no honour, perhaps they , just, can.
As bad as I Have ever seen.
Hmm. 87.106.214.196
last ?
696. Indeed. This is much worse than Major’s dying days. And I never thought I’d say that.
How on earth can they limp on for another 12 months?
cant get on you new thread, Mike
Where is the new thread?
We seem to be a little “threadbare”.
698-Not even close!
Oh, plus, I think a subscription would damage the site. I would gladly pay, but one of the key bonuses of PB is that there’s easy access, people can dip in and out, and share views readily. I worry the regular membership would decline dramatically should a subscription service be introduced.
cant see new thread!!!!
Cold turkey!!!!!!!
Is someone seeing the new thread?
703 -
Would suggest open a donation via pay pal button.
I have supported another site that asked for help that way and would gladly support this fine site
Gordon Brown can see the new thread.
Gordon sees dead people.
Especially when he looks in a mirror.
has caroline flint eaten the new thread?!
703 - I agree, and I’d be happy to contribute.
705 - no not here.
706 - good idea!
This new thread, is it about Camerons lost 24 hours in Poland or crop circles or something?
Nope not there yet.
702 aw shucks.. can’t even come last!
708 Gordon has enobled the new thread and made is the tsar of something.
where’s this new thread?
New Thread on Nadine Dorries Main Home or Stewart Jacksons IQ?
713 - It appears not.
First
probably waiting for Mike to hit the ‘enter’ key LOL
+++++Breaking News+++++++
The missing thread has quit Gordon Brown’s cabinet!
When asked why it simply said ‘no comments’
713-It’s really hard to be last. And when you think you are, JohnLoony spoils your fun!
713 - There’s lots of women who’d love you for that
gone with the LAB vote ?
Test
722 - naughty naughty, who said i was a man !
The new thread, has decided to spend more time with it’s family.
Is it correct that the Tories are down 6% and Labour are only down 1%?
699. numbertwelve
I said as much to a relative who phoned up half way through the Brown press conference. What were they thinking letting Brown in front of the media? Hoping he will realise he has had it by tommorrow morning? If the piant media and press wound him - How can he go on?
It was that dreadful, you almost felt sorry for him but then realise he is an utter cnut! Completly off his head!
Misery Its Gordon Brown as Kathy Bates and Westminster as Lilliput. Mariina Hyde writing in the Guardian.
Think not of it as a murder, but a fated suicide.
725 - Sorry, I’ve turned into Gordon Brown, and turned into a misogynist.
And Naughty? me? Never!
727 - No.
Downing Street are already briefing against the missing thread
‘Not as much fun as ConHome’ one source close to Damian McBride was heard to state
According to Nick Robinson Gordon Brown overclaimed for a flat, same as Alistair Darling!
is true there are no LAB councils?
727-Great result for Labour! Brown had a press conference to tell how happy he was with this result.
Re: 733
Nick Robinson was deliberately trying to play down the seriousness too.
Absolutely scandalous.
Saying it was a plot by the “Tory newspaper”, saying “most people wouldn’t say it’s that serious”, “he’s paid back some money” etc.
The “do nothing” new thread.
730 - apology accepted LOL.
NEW THREAD
739 - No there are Labour councils, what there aren’t is Labour County Councils, also no Lib Dem Counties either.
88 hehe now that is funny !!
Christ. This new thread is harder to find than a Labour councillor.
Does another cabinet member have to resign to “force” this New Thread?
Is the New Thread “getting on with the job”?
you know what, in a trial today it was said that two people starved a child to death and the piss poor performance of a PM at a press conference is what we are concerned about, this is what is scandalous.
and another thing (this thread is dead and I am just venting) some kids with an air gun shot three swans, a chav went thieving in and around our top art galaries and got a suspended sentince and get this some dude who is a member of an extreme right wing outfit got raided in Burnipfield and he has ricine in the fridge. Jeeze I wish there was a way I can correct the spelling but there you go.
back
test!
I still say he’ll hang on until the bitter end.
I’m one of the people who has had problems with access to both pb sites all day. Eventually (I’m a bird of very little brain) it occurred to me to try Internet Explorer instead of my usual browser, Firefox. It worked instantly. So whatever the problem is, it’s a browser problem.
I can’t tell you how nice it is to be back!
The Selfish Albatross
As Matthew Parris says in The Times:
“It is also an act of supreme selfishness on Mr Brown’s part. Wrapping himself like some wingless albatross around his administration’s throat, starving his own colleagues of oxygen in his mindless determination that other careers should not live in order that his should not die, he has brought his Government and his party to the ground, broken their legs-