Your predictions for Sunday night
June 5th, 2009More Radio
I’m supposed to be on BBC Radio 5 Live from about 11.15pm
Mike Smithson
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first?
first ever first?
First?
first?
Labour to get hammered
bah…
Labour fourth. UKIP second.
Hearing canvassing reports of UKIP doing well.
Labour to finish outside the top three.
Repost FPT
According to Nick Robinson Gordon Brown overclaimed for a flat, same as Alistair Darling!
Nick Robinson was deliberately trying to play down the seriousness too.
Absolutely scandalous.
Saying it was a “plot” by the Telegraph, a “Tory newspaper”, saying “most people wouldn’t say it’s that serious”, “he’s paid back some money” etc.
I’ve gone for Conservative 25-25.9% - and, sadly, I think they’re going to come 2nd behind the UKIP nutters.
Anyhow, the fluctuations of the last few days have got me green on every possible departure date for the PM. So some good has come of all of this.
Now just need to get shot of my rather unwise and shortpriced punts on Bercow, as can’t see that coming in…SGY must be a better bet. Can see him being the candidate of the non-loyal elder statesmen - Sheerman, Raynsford, etc if they don’t get GB out. If GB goes, who knows who might get it…
“How Peter Mandelson got grip on No 10’s panic
(…)Hutton had long made clear that he wanted to resign, because he would not be standing for parliament at the next election. But he stood back from attacking Brown in his resignation letter after failing to hear a strong assurance from Alan Johnson, the new home secretary, about his intentions. Johnson indicated he shared the concern about Brown, but he echoed Mandelson’s warning that removing Brown would massively destabilise the Labour party. He also indicated he believed it wrong to make a judgment until the full outcome of Thursday’s voting is known when the results of the European parliamentary elections are announced on Sunday night.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/05/gordon-brown-purnell-mandelson-balls
Just seen toenails deliver a pretty devastating report on Brown on the news at ten.
If that slimy creep is starting to have a go things must be bad!
Looking at the fact that Labour was cratering across the board, I think they could finish as low as fifth. More likely fourth. I don’t think that UKIP will do as well as people think.
1 Con 38
2 UKIP 22
3 Lab 17
4 LD 16
5 Other 7
11 really? no wonder he couldn’t fire the fatal shot Oh my LOL that is funny .. he’s dead. Is there a link ?
Tories.
Cameron the Same as Howard.
Labour.
1/3 of their vote goes on tour to the Greens.
Lib Dems - Stable.
UKIP.- Bizarre beneficiaries of the expenses scandal (the ones that aren’t in jail)
Green - Similar vote skip for the urban,urbane and auteur.
BNP. - No progress.Makes you proud to be British
Broadcast note
I’m supposed to be on Radio 5Live from about 11.15pm
18. Tim - a very pithy summary.
New Unitary Wiltshire Council - Only 2 Labour Members.
New Cornwall Unitary Council - 0 Labour Members.
New Unitary Central Bedfordshire Council - 0 Labour Members.
New Shropshire Unitary - 4 Labour Members.
So Hazel Blears’ has killed the Labour Party twice. Absolutely Totally Brilliant. So why don’t they just abandon the unitary plans for Norfolk, Suffolk & Devon or are they just on a terminal death wish?
Daniel Hannan’s take on events
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/06/05/labour_collapse_heres_what_will_happen_next
Tory 28
UKIP 20
Lib Dem & Labour 16
Green 13
BNP 5
17 LTL
No link, sorry - but it should get onto iPlayer in a couple of hours.
Fair is foul and foul is fair as the Tragedy of MacBroon enters its final act. After years of brooding and plotting to get the top job, uneasy sits the crown on the head of our Caledonian anti-hero.
Haunted by his past – who would have thought the old Blair would have so much blood in him? – MacBroon cuts an increasingly ghoulish figure in Whitehall and, more importantly, on YouTube. Taxpayers sitting in the stalls could be forgiven for not knowing whether to laugh or cry.
As former sycophants flee from him, MacBroon has even managed to fall out with his trusty side-kick Banquo, the total banker Darling. Worse still, Jacqui Smith, the Second-Homes Secretary, wanders the ramparts of the Palace of Westminster, compulsively washing her hands of outrageous expenses claims. “Out, out! Damned porno film receipt! Is this a box room I see before me?”
Not even the supernatural powers of Mandy, MacBride and Campbell, the three witches, can save MacBroon. Now his fate seems sealed – just as it was in Shakespeare’s original – with the appearance of retribution in the shape of two, slightly clueless English toffs; squires Cameron and Osborne.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5453150/The-Tragedy-of-MacBroon-enters-its-final-act.html
15 James Burdett. “I don’t think that UKIP will do as well as people think.”
I think that you may be right. UKIP did very well at the last Euro elections and people haven’t noticed a blind bit of difference. Some work friends are disillusioned with them.
I think that the Greens will do well. They have done well in the past at the Euros and are a “safer” protest vote than the BNP or UKIP.
I expect the Tories to top the poll and the LibDems to come second. Labour third, Greens/UKIP in a fight for 4th/5th.
Am I on drugs, or is Kirsty Wark’s top a bit too psychedelic ?
Yes. Labour to pack up the Fabian society and go-home to Pollokshields by Monday.
PM’s Press Conference today.
Anyone know where I can get the full unedited version including press questions and answers?
I’ve tried to find the unedited plus full questions press conference he gave two weeks ago about shake-up in expenses but can’t find that either.
29 Sparky
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8086353.stm
I just heard from a friend who was staffing a polling station on thursday. He had 16 people through all day.
This was in a council estate in Scotland.
I forgot to ask him how many were eligible to vote, but i reckon about 1500.
Truely shocking.
27. Habib Butt
I remeber the blouse from last year! Were those peanuts she was smugling?
27. Its the combination of mad shirt and shiny black skirt that jars. That and the fact that she seems to be putting on a bit of heft. A very bad look, all told.
32/33 Glad I’m not the only one.
22. THE HANNAN has spoken.
Sorry everyone: it’ll be what he said.
Anyone watching Sky News?
Has the lady had a tipple?
25 Surely more Lear than Macbeth.
22 - Habib.
Daniel was doing well there and I agee with him on the BNP.
But then at the end he goes for John Reid.
Can’t he resist politicians with links to genocidal East Europeans.
Michael White has completely lost it. There is loyalty to the party and then there is delusional behaviour and White is way over the line into complete lunacy.
Iain Dale and Michael White having a great big punch up on Sky!
Has Mark Senior commented on todays result, and how the Tories gaining 285 seats, and Lab losing 329, and LD losing 48 seats means the Tories cant win, as it, real people voting in real elections.
39/40 - You can see why Alastair Campbell punched Sir Michael White!
42
I didn’t know that. He goes up in my estimation.
Michael White talking out of his a@s from what I can hear, setting new standards in Brown apologism.
43 - I think it was back in 1991, when Robert Maxwell drowned.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2001/nov/05/labour.uk
I have now finally found my voice again, lost it when Bob Ainsworth was given Defence(still shakes her head in disbelief). But the rolling breaking news ticker on Sky looked like it might implode at one point today. Has any PM in the last 30 years faced so many bad news headlines in one day??
Why, how is Brown still sitting in No10 tonight, he has no authority or credibility left?? And neither do his *loyal* colleagues (use that term loosely to describe Balls and Mandy), or his would be successors, Harman, Milliband and Johnson!
Kirsty Wark just rendered Peter Hain briefly speechless by accusing the PM of lying about Darling remaining chancellor. Lovely.
37. Apparently not…
The ‘Scottish Play’, apparently about to reach its tragic denouement, is currently being enacted upon the Westminster stage before a riveted British public. Here’s the cast list:
Macbeth: Gordon Brown
Lady Macbeth: Ed Balls
Duncan: Tony Blair
Banquo: Role currently vacant, but Banquo’s Ghost played by Frank Field
Macduff: Alistair Darling
Three witches: Charles Clarke, John Reid, David Blunkett
First murderer: James Purnell
Second murderer: Hazel Blears
Third murderer (non-speaking part): Alan Johnson
Malcolm: David Cameron
Hamlet: David Miliband (er, some mistake, surely?? Ed.)
Director: Lord Mandels… hang on a minute, the great impresario doesn’t appear in the programme notes anywhere. But no Labour Party production gets onto the stage without him. So where is he?
Is anyone actually running this show?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/3672746/if-it-were-done-when-tis-done.thtml
Kirsty Wark going very strong on Newsnight re Brown lieing about Darling.
26.”Disraeli says:
5/6/2009 at 10:31 pm
15 James Burdett. “I don’t think that UKIP will do as well as people think.”
I think that you may be right. UKIP did very well at the last Euro elections and people haven’t noticed a blind bit of difference. Some work friends are disillusioned with them.”
I agree with both on you on this, much over hyped IMHO.
Hain called Yvette Cooper “Yvette Gibson” - he’s seriously rattled….
Kirsty Wark tearing Hain a new one on BBC2. Quality viewing.
Aa
Never, ever, heard a Kirsty Wark interview remotely like this.
“Tony Blair had four women running departments. Brown has one”
49.MikeL, able to elaborate, cannot see the programme until later on the computer?
55 - tvcatchup.com should sort you out.
Has anyone factored in how many MORE votes Labour will have lost since voting on Thursday?
Good if not sensational results for the Tories - a little humility for Dave and co is no bad thing.
Reasonable results for the Lib Dems from a high base, although the West Country is alarming at first glance.
Results in from Bedford; as we hoped a good showing in safe seats, and previously safe labour seats are marginals for next time.
The only trouble with all this “Gordon hates women” stuff is that the women who’ve resigned are all despicable. It’s not possible to feel sorry for Hazel Blears.
Apparently - according to Hain - the Tories will “push up borrowing”. Am almost in tears laughing….
How Hain can be bothered with this? It is an utter joke!
The whole lot is an utter joke!
I’ve had a glass or two and I have a theory on all of this.
Peter Mandelson knows that Labour will lose badly in an early election.
He has given Brown his support, both of them expecting,( probably correctly) the economy to improve quicker than most people think.
If Labours poll figures do not improve by Halloween or Bonfire Night then Peter will trigger the clause in the agreement.
Gordon will step down at Xmas.
“I have seen Britains economy through recession with the least damage and we have performed better than all of our competitors but it is time for a new generation”
38 Hmmm… too obvious.
55. ChristinaD
She absolutely tore him apart for Our Glorious Leader lying about wanting to move Alistair Darling.
Then she pushed him again and again and again and again on Caroline Flint and female representation/prestige.
Then she asked him about why No 10 forced Caroline Flint to do her interview yesterday.
He was absolutely floored. Great stuff.
Doh. 48
Hain was appallingly smug
Ms Wark was not happy with him - at all
60. Hain telling lies already?
64.Wibbler, ta. will definitely watch it later.
55. Basically said (not exact quote):
Brown said he would always tell the truth and then the next moment he said he didn’t want to move Darling. Every single person knows that is not true.
When Hain didn’t answer the point was repeated.
56.Thanks too limesmoothie, cool name.
Today have cancelled the interview that they were planning with me and (pro-GB) Geraldine Smith - seems they couldn’t find anyone willing to put the “Brown must go” argument, with one of the named plotters who’d offered earlier having gone to ground and not returning calls. Whether that’s just him or a sign that the plot is losing steam, I don’t know. My view is simply that it’s a waste of time to discuss whether we’d prefer someone else to lead the party if nobody else is offering to do so.
For info, by the way, Monday’s meeting is the regular PLP session, not somethinng laid on especially - there’s always a speaker and the chance to ask questions or make short points. Sometimes they can be used to organise pressure for a particular view, but more usually it’s just a chance for people to say what’s on their minds. It seems likely that Gordon will be the speaker and that it’ll be lively, but it’s a mistake to think it’s some sort of make-or-break session with a vote.
Re my post at 64.
Kirsty Wark is my favourite Newsnight presenter after Jeremy Paxman.
30 Thanks Wibbler. Watching it now. Very wobbly on Bolton’s deconstruction of the New Government (LOL).
UKIP second? yeah right.
How many have put money on that? thought so.
69.Thanks too Mike, I did catch Tom Bradby on ITN earlier mentioning exactly that point too. Killer point.
71
Are you starting to feel lonely now that you have lost your last councillors in Broxtowe Nick?
Lol. Geraldine Smith says Flint has “had a bit of a strop” and “should have counted to ten before writing that letter”. That’ll mitigate all those accusations of sexism!
FPT repost of article by Marina Hyde in the Guardian entitled Misery :It’s Gordon Brown as Kathy Bates. And Westminster as Lilliput.
71. Ah Nick. Gordon Brown’s performance today is the worst I have ever seen. His appointments are bizarre and in many cases utterly inappropriate for a parliamentary democracy. Without a doubt yours is now the most shameful and useless governement I recall.
I hope you lose your seat Nick, because nobody who supports this catastrophic joke of a PM and government is fit to sit in parliament.
71. I admire loyalty as I always expect it from my team and return it. However, yr leader is spent and is now humiliating our nation; especially that ludicrous press conference. For pity’s sake tell him to go before he embarasses himself, the Labour Party and the nation further.
76: Richarc, it’s not very different from only having one, which has been the case for 4 years now. Plenty of friendly LibDem councillors though.
71. Geraldine Smith reminds me of a horse when she speaks!
How on earth did Geraldine Smith get elected?
She is an epitome of a sub-standard MP
Robotic, unthinking and a waste of space
I’m still astonished that the conservatives won Derbyshire (and only slightly less by Lancashire). My home town of Glossop is now all blue.
We are in an alternate reality.
My vote helped elect the lib dem councillor here in Guildford North, now I hope my Green vote turfs the labour candidate out of their last slot in the South East Euro constituency.
Laugh of the day - Bob Ainsworth. Just him, not anything he does, he’s a joke politician. Unfortunately he’s in charge of people who deserve a decent defender, not a comedy routine.
Nick, any views on SurAlan (second job) Sugar??
This has turned into the worst of all worlds for Labour. A party split down the middle. What was expected after the next election but not now.
A prediction. Brown to lead Labour into the next election.
81. “it’s not very different from only having one”
Hain - when asked if Purnell’s resignation was the killer blow - “who knows?”
Maybe he’s already given up…
84. Did you see the picture of Bob Ainsworth here?
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/p=2638454.html#2638454
Amazing to think Old Labour still thinks it can rescue the situation. Time for the New Labour MP’s to move over to the Tories or Lib Dems as Old Labour is back in its 70’s hey day!
Mark Fisher talking some sense and being shouted down by Hain.
The oddest thing about the Suralan appointment, is it completely neuters one of Labours main line of attacks, that of Tories and second jobs. Sugar has a load of jobs and appointments already so anytime they mention second jobs they will get him thrown back in their faces.
Gordon Brown looks really ill.
71.Sorry to hear that NickP, it will still be interesting to see what transpires on the show tomorrow. But I doubt that the plot*s* have run out of steam yet. Might even go all quiet until Monday, but I doubt it. The Sunday’s might be very brutal, would expect some rallying calls to the Brown banner, as well as some very critical articles too.
Tom Bower, for me, made the main point earlier that nailed the end of Brown’s premiership. This is a man who should no longer be sitting in No10 tonight, and the fact he is after the events of the last week shows just how big this Labour meltdown is. He will take the whole party down with him, and I think there are enough MP’s who realise this and will try their best to stop him.
Could be wrong, but I think there is a least two plots, possible three on the go right now. And it ain’t going to take a genius to work out which one will end up looking the more professional, and the others will gather around it. Way back in what seems like the midst of time now, someone dropped those Damian McBride emails into Guido’s lap and left him to get them out in the public domain. Now a good strategist plans well, and makes sure that the opposition is seriously weakened before they strike….
62 that is where my money is - gordon survives for now - but if no improvement by the autumn he will go before the election so that the damage is limited for the labour party . Exactly when this will happen or if it will happen depends on a number of factors - but the recent events have given me a good opportunity to lay gordon going now and cover all future exit dates - emotionally i want him to go soon but financially a delayed departure suits me just fine - a nicely hedged position
83. Agree. Unbelievable. Even if her selection panel was stuffed with her relatives it’s still unbelievable. Hain is still a cut above the average.
2nd worst voice in parliament.
60. Did you hear Brown at his press conference today? He just told fibs about the conservative spending plans in response to Frazer Nelsons question about reducing spending already factored into the budget, and tried to mock Frazer by saying it was his report which drew attention to it in the spectator. Frazer tried to correct him, by telling that the 10% figures actually came from the Treasury’s own accounts, and not the Conservatives plans.
92. I assume you didn’t see Nick Palmer’s question at PMQs this week?
Guess I missed it while at the count, but if francis is around he’s earned a little celebratuion:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/english-democrat-is-new-mayor-of-doncaster-1697869.html
Meanwhile, a different view…
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/stephen-foley-ditching-brown-looks-crazy-from-here-1697248.html
92. Nothing Gordon does ever makes much sense. Never did one man have such a propensity for doing the exact opposite of his proclaimed views.
Good to see that Broon hates the forces so much he inflicts another plonker on them……….Ainsworth??? Bellend………funny how all these Labour people are happy to send their constituents overseas to die and yet none of their children are in the services or strangely neither were they……..what a surprise??/
92. Plus - what is Sugars role? I think it is a cover for the fact Sugar got a Peerage and has given Labour £1 Million in donations!
A cunning twist on Cash for Peerages - make it look authentic.
tim, the problem with the Economic Recovery narrative is that even if the rebound happens before people expect, all the pain indicators will still be showing red: unemployment rising, taxes rising, debt and deficit rising, public spending falling.
Indeed the longer Labour stay in power the more obvious it will be that they too will have to slash public spending, just like the cruel Tories, so depriving Brown of maybe his last electoral weapon.
Moreover, I believe much of the animosity aimed at Labour has nothing to do with the economy: its a toxic cocktail of anger, fuelled by Iraq and immigration and multiculturalism and sleaze and Europe and spin and expensesgate and even the stupid way Brown smiles.
In other words: Labour are finished, even if they engineer an economic miracle. Which they won’t.
83 - she is hopeless. She makes me ashamed to be from the North.
81 - Nick, having no leader would be an improvement.
I never thought I’d see people in the party, and Labour voters as embarrassed as Tories were between 1991 and 1997. But its happened.
Do your duty.
With regard to Gordon Brown’s potential demise, I have found myself thinking of the final part of TS Eliot’s The Hollow Men.
This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.
77 LOL
Caroline Flint has as much backbone and is as much use as our cricketers!!!
test
From Guardian:
The individuals who spoke out – part of what Brown critics accepted was a “drumbeat” – intervened despite reports of considerable pressure from the government whipping operation. One rebel described the next government whipping tactic: “Disloyal MPs are being told, ‘You want a cabinet minister to visit your constituency during an election campaign? Then be very careful.’ That works. A picture of an MP with a cabinet minister in their local newspaper in a marginal seat can make the difference between winning and losing.”
Really? Picture of MP X & Bob Ainsworth: Hold The Front Page!
I don’t trust the figures that the BBC are quoting for change in councillor numbers
Sky were reporting losses for Labour of over 300 and gains for the Tories of over 250
Now the BBC are saying Lab - 250, Tories +215
Someone can’t count or is playing fast and loose with the truth - again
Kirsty is kicking Hain again on Newsnight!
I would love to know how many of the “New” cabinet are smiling tonight…
Peter Hain back from the dead gets an invite on Newsnight, with cuddly Kirstie, not known for her anti-Labour tendencies, and get a shoeing.
How much does Andy Burnham wish he had resigned yesterday? It might all be over in days and he mortgaged his future to prop up Gordo. Unlucky!
Front pages
As a religious man, I am not given to using profane language, but when I saw the video of Fraser Nelson’s stooshie with Broon, I uttered some regretable words which I will have to go to Confession about. This clown, Broon, will have to go.
There’s a degree of irony in Tory posters now saying Labour is finished when they roundly condemned Nick Clegg at Wednesday’s PMQs for saying exactly that…
ahhh, got back at last for my fix
Just discovered from the comments page on Obnoxio’s blog that 2 Labour candidates in Gosport were outvoted by punk rocker Fungus Addams of the English Democrats!
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4471993488623327927&postID=5401682041209301150
Gosport Leesland and Town ward. (2 seats)
Fungus Addams, English Democrats, 972
Christopher Carter, Conservative, 3,802
* Peter Edgar, Conservative, 4,502
Graham Giles, Labour, 781
* Keith Gill, Lib Dem, 1,566
Brian Hart, Independent, 1,085
Terry Mitchell, Green, 981
George Morby, Lib Dem, 1,193
Jock Train, Labour, 619
Having said that you wouldn’t be too confident if Pickles was piloting your plane.
110 - I think it might be that Sky have 4 all the results and the BBC are only showing 30 of the 34 councils.
“Rifts within rifts that have saved Gordon Brown – so far”
By Jackie Ashley
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/05/jackie-ashley-labour-divisions
Shame they don’t use my adjusted one with all the money on!
115. No Dan the reason we all took the piss out of Clegg was Clegg saying the choice was between Tory & LD.
I ran the projection through baxter and the Labour would still have considerably more seats than LD on C38, Lab 22, LD28.
Clegg is a joke!
LD are going to get mullied in the southwest come the next election!
113.Thanks Me, not going to make happy reading in Downing Street tomorrow.
115. Are you sure Tories condemned him? Many people here have advocated the Lib Dems positioning themselves as the alternative to the Tories. I was pleased to hear Clegg raise the idea, and thought the laughter in parliament showed how little Labour understand their position, until today that is.
If the Lib Dems want to be one of the two main parties they will never get a better chance, Labour are up the proverbial creek, Brown hasn’t just lost the paddle he’s drilling holes in the boat.
124. Okay I see that Martin might have done so.
Brown told 2 bare faced lies at his press conference. And this after professing to be ‘candid’. After saying he would not use his family he yet again invoked his mystical father as proof of his own truthfulness (with Sarah twittering in the wings).
He lied when he says he had no plans to move darling. And every journalist in the room new this was a lie.
he lied when he denied there were massive spending cuts in the last labour budget for after the election. The Speccies Fraser Nelson had the mike taken away as he waved the evidence and pointed out Brown was lying.
How can a government survive with this level of dissembling from the top? Appoint Mandelson as First Secretary of State I suppose.
Oh … err …
And if you want a 3rd lie, he lied again when he said it was the Tories not Labour who would be making cuts.
121 I think you’ll find thats 0 seats for LD in SW next time!!!!
39 - agreed, even Dale made him look stupid.
Who is this Labour dinosaur on Five Live? Everything I hate about this party summed up in one man.
At 81 Nick Palmer MP says:
5/6/2009 at 10:57 pm
76: Richarc, it’s not very different from only having one, which has been the case for 4 years now. Plenty of friendly LibDem councillors though.
‘Friendly Lib Dems’?
http://cllrdavidwatts.blogspot.com/2009/06/election-results.html
Quote:
‘Nick Palmer has worked hard as an MP but he supports Gordon Browns Government. Labour have come third in Broxtowe now in the last two elections and it is clear that Nick will not win a fourth term as MP. The only question for voters is whether to elect a Tory who doesn’t line in the constituency or me, a long term local resident who even Dr palmer himself said would make a very good MP.’
110. Probably one is including the new unitary councils, and the other isn’t.
New SPIN market (suspended overnight)
The total number of days Gordon Brown is in office in his current term as Prime Minister.
The actual day he leaves office shall be used for settlement. Any subsequent re-election will not count so the maximum result will be 3rd June 2010, which is the last possible date for a General Election.
Should this change then the maximum result will remain 3rd June 2010.
For example; Gordon Brown is ousted and leaves office on Tuesday 16th June 2009
Result = 720
Minimum result = today
Maximum possible result = 1072 (3rd June 2010)
Gordon Brown became Prime Minister on 27th June 2007.
Kirsty Wark: “It wasn’t a great night for the Conservatives; it doesn’t show the type of result that would mean a General electoral victory.”
What the fuck?????????????????
There were 34 councils up for grabs last night. Of the 33 that have counted so far, 29 are Conservative.
Labour didn’t keep any. The Lib Dems gained 1.
The Tories have 1330 councillors. Labour 150.
What more stark a contrast does one need??
Now that the new cabinet is announced Brown has shot his bolt. He only has smears (or in a couple of extreme cases, threats of prosecution for expenses fraud) as a preventative left to him. Suggestions that those who threaten to rebel will be told that they will get no support from the party when the next election occurs are empty bluster: Labour is financially bankrupt anyway, and a split with a Blairite splinter group hiving off would probably at least have the benefit of some of St Tony’s wealth to fall back on.
Even the Commons gravy train argument carries risks: prolonging Brown may result in lower pensions and no transition payoff to offset continued MP salary for a few more months.
Poor Euro results could easily have unhappy Labour MPs clamouring for a leadership change again. The talk is of 100+ if Byers (quoted in the Mail) is to be believed - which would be enough to sink the government if they were forced to abstain on a motion of no confidence instead of getting a leadership change.
Kirsty Wark: “It wasn’t a great night for the Conservatives; it doesn’t show the type of result that would mean a General electoral victory.”
There were 34 councils up for grabs last night. Of the 33 that have counted so far, 29 are Conservative.
Labour didn’t keep any. The Lib Dems gained 1.
The Tories have 1330 councillors. Labour 150.
What more stark a contrast does one need??
<<<<>>>>>
Value about to fall out of the BNP NOT to gain a seat market.
128.
Can’t be any worse than Frank Dobson last night.
128 - I think it’s Geraldine Smith,
131 Scott P
What an awesome market!
134. At the GE? Quite
136. Nah it’s Smith now, she’s even worse. Was some nobody earlier defending Brown, not even an MP.
135 - Frank Dobson was great.
137. Absolutely! Loads of fun to be had…
Some moonbat Labour MP on 5 Live now.
139. It’s another measure of how “brilliant” the reshuffle was that they have to send hapless volunteers onto the airwaves to explain to an ungrateful Nation the Glorious Nature of the Great Leaders Vision…
133 Seth Gillette says:
Kirsty Wark: “It wasn’t a great night for the Conservatives; it doesn’t show the type of result that would mean a General electoral victory.”
“It wasn’t a great night for the BBC; it doesn’t show the type of impartiality that would mean a continuation of current funding from the next Tory Government.”
133 - Right so the fact that Labour have been annihilated from a low base the Conservatives have taken straight control of previously Labour run councils is not a great night? That’s without mentioning that the Conservatives pasted the Lib Dems in the South West.
131 ScottP
Do you know what the price was before it was suspended?
133 - Is Kirsty Wark Rod Crosby?
133 - it’s absolutely staggering the number of experts and pundits trying to extrapolate share of vote/Westminster voting predictions from these results. When you combine the councils involved, the fact that they’re on the same day as the Euros, and various other factors, such figures become absolutely pointless. The only certainties we can gather from these results are that the Tories remain very popular, the Lib Dems are hovering somewhere, and Labour are dead.
105 - A post of yours I can agree with.
What on earth are Labour doing?
Brown is destroying your party and some of you cannot see this?
I think you will find that the Sky figures for seats gained and lost are incorrect as they are trying to attribute gains and losses in the new unitaries of Cornwall , Wiltshire etc which cannot be done as the old and new councils are not comparable .
146. Richard. Sorry, no; just found it.
145 James B
Let them spin. It keeps their spirits up, makes it more likely that Brown will stay, help Conservatives to avoid complacency, and allows punters to make money.
What’s not to like?
144. SkyBBC.
If you Tory shills are typical of NuTories then the country is going to be in as much shit as it is with NuLabour; and with them the hit is deeper than the snow in my garden in North Dakota was in March.
God help Britain. Not that he will.
Labour MPs must be as mentally ill as Brown if they don’t get rid of him. I can half understand the Cabinet staying, but backbench MPs have no excuse.
I’m starting to come round to SeanT’s view that us lefties are indeed retarded.
So who gets the award for Most Hopelessly Overpromoted Cabinet Minister? It’s got to be Bob Ainsworth hasn’t it?
156-
151. Continued…
The price will be very interesting, assuming enough people are trading on it to find the level. Just as the spread price today was a much better indicator of the results than the pundits, it should be an indicator of whether Gordo is expected to tough it out.
Money to be made methinks
157 - probably, though Glenys Kinnock isn’t a bad bet on that score either.
re 129. Dan makes a brilliant there for what these results and the EU ones on Sunday create is a totally different proposition in many Labour held seats where the Tories are challenging.
Here in Bedford we are able to say that Labour are now finished and the only way of stopping the Tories is by voting Lib Dem. A whole new range of seats could come into play.
In my town the Tory performance has been abysmal in what is their 67th general election target. They were simply unable to hack it. The Lib Dems came in top place and Labour did surprisingly well. I think Martin Day has a word for it DOOMED
152 Thanks Scott. Could be an interesting one!
157. Adam Boulton asked some journos that question earlier, and yes, Bob-a-job wins the star prize
Good on Eve Pollard taunting Michael White about how he will cope when Tories win the election.
160. Suppose Sugar or Kinnock make some monumental cock up and have to resign. Surely THAT would wrap it up for Brown??
157.
Ooooh that’s difficult. Ben Bradshaw? Hain? Glenys Kinnock? Glenys Kinnock?!! ALAN SUGAR!
ScottP & Richard Nabavi.
I know you two bet.
And (generally) know what you are talking about.
What are your views on the BNP not to win a seat market?
I think its a gimme.
160 - Glenys isn’t a Cabinet Minister, just a Minister who attends Cabinet when Brown wants her to.
157. James, A lot of choice to pick from and not much between them
157 No, of course not. The most overpromoted cabinet minister is Dr JG Brown
159 Scott P
Well, there are basically 3 ’spikes’ I can see.
- Next few days if he is pushed out in a bloody coup
- October - if he is pushed out in a bloodless coup
- May/June 2010
How many weeks,months have we sat and posted here “how much longer can Brown go on / can this get worse”. Its utterly crazy that Brown still hasnt gone. No-one else dare take the job, everyone waiting for him to take the blame at defeat at the general election. But what will be left of the Labour Party after the evnts of this week. As someone else said upthread - ALL those who are supporting such apatently incompetent and frankly disturbed prime minister have also made themselves look like foos today. They are frozen, watching Browns final mental breakdown. I fear for this country.
Does anyone else share my horror that within 11 months of the calling of a general election a Prime Minister is yet again changing the departmental shape of the government? Changing the ministry structure isn’t like fantasy football; it should only be done in order to achieve a more efficient and effective way to make use of public taxes to deliver policy. It is quite mad to think that a reorganization of the civil service at such a stage in a parliament could produce benefit.
A second point: I wonder if the treatment of the MoD as an insignificant piece of the jigsaw might provoke reasoned objection from senior officers, possibly even a resignation. This could be an explosive area politically.
Very real chance that Labour will lose its seat in the South East. BNP work quite anaemic though. Who will get it? LDs?
The MP for Mid Beds has had a bit of a high profile lately, so I’d not be surprised by some votes in the area telling her to shut up.
MPs’ expenses: Gordon Brown billed taxpayer for two second homes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5456789/mps-expenses-Gordon-Brown-billed-taxpayer-for-two-second-homes.html
157 - surely Gordon Brown
167 tim
Yes, I followed you in, but only for a cautious stake. I don’t have a direct feel for how things are playing out in that region.
Meanwhile: time perhaps to unwind Alan Johnson positions, at least partially?
176. Oh dear!
From the link:
“Mr Brown, who “flipped” the designation of his second home before moving into Downing Street, submitted an estimated electricity bill for his home in Fife which partly covered a period when his London flat was his designated second home.
(…)
In total, Mr Brown appeared to make claims totalling £512 for the “wrong” properties.
(…)
A detailed analysis of Mr Brown’s expense claims also reveals that the Prime Minister claimed £30 on his office expenses for the cost of hiring a bagpiper to play at a ceremony for veterans.”
164 - agreed, White was trully awful earlier.
Spinning away like a good un……
176. “It is a humiliating blow for the Prime Minister, who publicly rebuked Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, this week for doing a similar thing.”
Problem is I don’t think Brown has the slightest understanding of the concept of humiliation.
172 - I think a Churchill quote is here appropriate this he deployed during a speech lambasting appeasement but it is applicable to the Labour mob today.
So they go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent.
170 - Snap!
176 Me
That is an absolutely massive story. The same story for Darling got wall to wall coverage last week.
Brown should be forced to do a humiliating apology in the same way.
test
“Mr Brown calculated this repayment by adding up the payments for April to mid-September and returning the balance.
However, council tax is charged in 10 monthly instalments, meaning Mr Brown did not take into account the fact that no payments were due in February or March. ”
So whats all this crap about being a genius then? Pile of steaming horses##t, the man is no more a genius than my pet goldfish!
176 - Looool what a tool
Then I remember he is supposed to be running our country…. oh sh*t!!!
187 Oracle
Hardly a smoking gun, though.
182 “Problem is I don’t think Brown has the slightest understanding of the concept of humiliation.”
He will if he hangs around for a General Election
189 - I didn’t say it was! Just pointing out the man is no genius as the press try to make out.
167. If you mean the Hill’s market for a Euro seat, I covered my position with Shadsy so I am green either way.
178 - On Johnson, yes.
I’m covered on that.
On the BNP stuff I’ve got what I can on - I think its the best betting opportunity for months, and the price has amazed me all day but is now closed right down.
The claiming for the bagpipe player, what the hell is all that about?
Astonishing that the spin that it was “not such agood night for the tories” continues all day and all night from the impartial BBC. Shows what we are up against.
Michael White really does need a smack in the gob
My predictions for the Euro Elections, excl NI:
Tory……… 27%
UKIP……….17%
Labour……..15%
LibDems…….14%
Greens………9%
BNP…………9%
Nats………..5%
Others………4%
Total……..100%
Nate Silver analyzes Pawlenty’s ratings (I floated Pawlenty as a long shot for 2012 a couple of days ago, but no-one else here agreed).
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/get-ready-for-hockey-dad.html
194.Oracle, who claimed for a bag pipe player?
195 - It was absolutely shocking, I came in early afternoon and they were wittering on about this, and how Cameron wouldn’t win at the GE, flip over to Sky and Trasher is saying 28 seat majority and actually if you push me on it I personally think it would be significantly more than that (just my model isn’t showing it at the moment).
Front page of Indie “A PM on the edge of a breakdown”
196 Floater. If we sold lottery tickets with that as the first prize, the takings would pay off a sizeable chunk of the National Debt.
199- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5456789/mps-expenses-Gordon-Brown-billed-taxpayer-for-two-second-homes.html
199 ChristinaD
Our Glorious Leader (and he has claimed a lot more besides!) - see 176.
199 - Gordo the Great,
A detailed analysis of Mr Brown’s expense claims also reveals that the Prime Minister claimed £30 on his office expenses for the cost of hiring a bagpiper to play at a ceremony for veterans.
Michael White is truly repugnant. He just talks over and drowns out anyone who disagrees with him. He has that self-righteous air that (sweeping generalisation alert) so many on the left seem to possess - as if they are entitled to be verbally unpleasant to others because they believe they are both in the right and inherently better people than those who disagree with them. Nauseating.
I don’t know how the Pravda spin machine had some bare faced cheek to go on about bad day for the Tories, while showing the map of the UK totally Blue (except one tiny spot of yelloy for Bristol).
*** BETTING POST ***Mr Smithson will be strutting his stuff in the 14:20 at Musselburgh
Saturday’s race is highly competitive (worth £25,000) and we will therefore see how good both of our horses really are. The race looks tough but even if we don’t win, the place money on offer makes it worth our while trying.
200.After listening to Nick Robinson’s opinion earlier today, I turned over to another news channel. And I haven’t really bothered with the BBC for the Downing Street or elections coverage. Sky, ITN, Five Live and the blogsphere. Who needs the Beeb??
He who pays the piper…
And he’s off to France tomorrow. Wonder who is paying the piper over there?
157 “Simple Bob” being paxoed on Newsnight a couple of years ago.
206 - Wonder how White Jnr is enjoying that job at the Treasury daddy got him?
It was a bad day for the BBC… completely outgunned on election news by other TV channels and the blogosphere; the threat of the cosy relationship with the Islington left wing elite severely undermined by the electoral results.
The only thing you can say is that they’ve learned to be in self denial from Brown watching so closely.
211 - He has such an annoying voice. He is so clearly not up to a Cabinet post. He is the sort of person for whom being second rate would be a considerable achievement.
Another slapping for Gordon
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6440800.ece
“Knackered. Nervous. Determined. A bit punch-drunk. The man who many thought wouldn’t last the day as our Prime Minister emerged at 4.45pm yesterday, at his reshuffle press conference, with that strange smile plastered to his face.”
“I could see James Purnell hurling his shoe at the television. Watching Gordon perform, I was amazed that anyone ever thought he’d leave: the man would nail himself to No 10 if he had to. Indeed, his belief in himself is a bit Messianic. It soon became clear he will stop at nothing. He’s even taking his new Defence Secretary, Bob Ainsworth, to today’s D-Day events. The Queen can’t go, but Boring Bob can. Surely those soldiers have suffered enough already.”
Mark Senior, Good work by the Liberal Deomcrats, but on the main Conservative Labour fight, Labour needed to start winning tonight to lose very badley at a general election.
Us Conservatives have met our expectations whilst having any complacency knocked out of us!
There’s too much gray in this map.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/local_council/09/map/html/map.stm
Needs moar blue thanks.
And again from the Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6440462.ece
“Labour’s stopped working
A hasty reshuffle shows that the Government is paralysed with a weak Prime Minister presiding over a Cabinet that has declined to show any steel”
And my favorite bit
“Yesterday the Prime Minister announced what was colloquially described as a Cabinet reshuffle. But the correct technical term was a suicide pact.”
209.Should have said the Beeb TV coverage.
UK economy is ’shrinking faster’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8084740.stm
I wonder if the mystery piper was none other than Mr Speaker Mick …
Look at those council numbers and tell me this is a bad night for the Tories.
No matter how you spin it Tories winning here, there and everywhere!
I have to say whoever is advising Gordo the Great must be deluded as he is. They obviously told him to be humble and tell the numpties of the press that he was a humble man, and certainly not arrogant. What did the advisor think Gordo would do? A Tony Blair? Of course he didn’t, he said “I’m no arrogant” in about as arrogant way possible!
I’m just getting in with the job….of destroying Labour..cheers Gordon you’re doing us all proud!
“Look at those council numbers and tell me this is a bad night for the Tories.”
Gabble / NPMP / Roger / tim: “This is a bad night for the Tories. Gordon’s played a blinder. Break out the bubbly!”
Have all the Local election results come in yet or are we expecting more tonight or when ever?
Just caught Michael White on the News, that smug countenance is not quite as convincing as it was.
[216] But Benedict the locals were only the first half, the second half of the match will be on Sunday, with the European results… I suspect you may end up feeling a wee bit different abut Conservatives “matching expectations” after a third of your vote walks out of the door. Indeed, I think we will all need to be thinking carefully in 72 hours…
I just came from Lords and in the end the Orange victory on a generally very cold and grey day came from no where in the late second half…
Anyway, good night all, I am off to bed!
223. Exactly. Good, honest, kind, people don’t proclaim their wonderfulness at every opportunity, they tend to be modest and are embarrassed when praised.
Brown seems to think he is a moral titan, he isn’t.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=1&storycode=43747&c=1
Stunningly bad that even with the scoop of the year, sales still slide.
Must say I am surprised.
Cicero, I am content that the Euro’s will be acceptable, but not good primarilly because of the climate. Expenses will hit all the main parties very hard. I do hope the BNP will be held though.
Fancy a beer sometime?
227.”Indeed, I think we will all need to be thinking carefully in 72 hours…”
That may be the case, but at least Tories and Lib Dems will have the consolation that comes from having leaders who aren’t barking mad.
“Andrew Grice: Don’t believe the spin – the PM didn’t get what he wanted”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-dont-believe-the-spin-ndash-the-pm-didnt-get-what-he-wanted-1698129.html
Re 232 “glw says:
6/6/2009 at 12:20 am
227.”Indeed, I think we will all need to be thinking carefully in 72 hours…”
That may be the case, but at least Tories and Lib Dems will have the consolation that comes from having leaders who aren’t barking mad.”
To be fair I don’t think any party has had a leader that barking mad before!
It’s a long article:
“Steve Richards: Labour has become an ungovernable party”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-labour-has-become-an-ungovernable-party-1698168.html
re 230;
In a way it is, David.
But then again, and I speak as a depressed hack, the print media is in terminal decline. Circulation figures are down across the board, year on year for pretty much the last decade. Sad reality is people, especially younger folk, are just not buying paper anymore.
156. “Labour MPs must be as mentally ill as Brown if they don’t get rid of him. I can half understand the Cabinet staying, but backbench MPs have no excuse.”
There’s a definite buzz of low-level Labour people not liking the disloyalty aspect of the rebels kicking off before an election. If any of the potential rebels e.g Burnham had been keeping in contact with their local bods they might have picked that up and got cold feet - same with backbenchers. Personally I think the rebels messed up by getting Blears to move too soon.
I imagine whoever’s in charge of the toy set when the playground whistle blows will be the one who doles out the golden tickets for the post-election gravy train jobs in quangoland. I don’t think the rebels calculated correctly just how cowardly, money-grubbing and morally corrupt most ZNL MPs are. The rebellion required zero mistakes.
I really wish the press would delineate between spin and lies. Spin is trying to put the best possible shine on a turd, much of what Gordo said this afternoon were lies, pure and simple e.g Answer to Nelson about government public sector cuts.
151
Mark Senior
Any explanation why the Lib Dem performance was so poor?
Afterall these were real elections and not polls,you keep on telling us how much progress the Lib Dems are making each week with by-elections.
235: Yes, lead by the Selfish Albatross
According to Matthew Parris (Times, 6 June 2009)
“It is also an act of supreme selfishness on Mr Brown’s part. Wrapping himself like some wingless albatross around his administration’s throat, starving his own colleagues of oxygen in his mindless determination that other careers should not live in order that his should not die, he has brought his Government and his party to the ground, broken their legs - and yet still will not release his grip.“
236 - Must admit I’m considering teaching or the police force or something like that. I think my press career is over unless there is some seismic change of heart at Wapping in the next month.
Cameron Smear Alert in the Daily Rant, again, back for Round 2,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191155/Claims-David-Cameron-30m-fortune-sit-uneasily-taxpayers-So-truth-money.html
Re: Hain on Newsnight tonight. I thought he did very well. Yes, Kirsty gave him quite a hard time and he couldn’t explain away Brown’s denial of his intention to move Darling out of the Treasury. But how could anyone? In fact he didn’t try too hard to explain away the inexplicable. Nor was he critical of Purnell.
For me, it made a refreshing change to see a senior Labour politician fronting questions with a fair amount of basic political skill and agility. An all too rare event. He still comes over as a bit smug and tetchy, however.
Compare Hain to Johnson and his woeful efforts today; where he struggled to explain why he was so pleased to be the new Home Secretary. All he seemed to know about the job was that it has something to do with police and crime - and that the police are good and crime is bad, if I followed him correctly.
Nick Palmer makes a very good point. How can Labour MPs be persuaded to go over the top - like Purnell - unless they have knowledge that a serious player will throw his or her hat into the ring? On today’s performance they would be fools to do so in the hope of a Johnson coronation. Johnson is right about one thing; he’s just not up to the job of being PM.
I now have some small renewed hope in my antepost voucher for Hain to be next Labour leader. Unlikely I know and next to impossible if Brown is toppled within days. But Hain is a much better politician and potential Labour leader than the majority of the fancied runners, in my view.
“Claims that David Cameron has a £30m fortune sit uneasily with taxpayers.” - is the headline
Doesn’t bother me, big woophs if him and his wife have quite a bit of money, but to be frank £30m isn’t mega money these days. I went to school with a guy who had made £50m within 5 years of leaving uni.
What I want to know, and sure most voters, if not if Cameron has plenty of dough, but what is he going to do with ours!
“Both of their family backgrounds are undoubtedly drenched in money. ”
Soak the rich is clearly back in fashion!
“Pygmy rebels and a bloodied Mr Brown”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1191196/MAIL-COMMENT.html
243. you must be joking! All hain harked on about was tory cuts. Just like brown he doesnt get it. Another minister with no understanding. Its this sort of answer which is doing labour so much harm. Everyone know’s cuts are coming whoever wins the next election.
243 - Hain could never be Labour leader, is dodgy background would come back to haunt him time and time and time again. The Cameron smear about going to SA during apartheid, Hain was convicted of offenses (and don’t forget the one that was supposedly a “set up” for).
248 (cont) and don’t forget that think tank!
277.”I suspect you may end up feeling a wee bit different abut Conservatives “matching expectations” after a third of your vote walks out of the door. Indeed, I think we will all need to be thinking carefully in 72 hours…”
Cicero, why?? Just look at the results today, I have a hunch that the Ashcroft marginals targeting strategy will pay dividends on Sunday, just as it did today.
249 (cont) oh and what about his 80 year old mother on the books.
Too many dodgy things for Hain to be in cabinet, let alone leader, but Gordo is desperate.
re 241;
Sorry David, I remember you saying yesterday that you had lost your job but I didn’t realise you were a journalist.
Fell free to tell me to mind my own business but can I ask who you worked for?
Over 3,600 posts responding to today’s six threads and counting.
By a very long way the highest one day tally of posts on PB.com ever and three times the average daily number of just 3 months ago.
243
‘Nick Palmer makes a very good point. How can Labour MPs be persuaded to go over the top’
Why would they want to trigger an early GE and then join the dole queue when they can hang on for another year with their salaries and expenses?
re 252;
Should read ‘feel free’. And I’m a bloody sub too! In my defence, had best part of a bottle of sauv blanc.
243 Remind us in which position Hain came in the Deputy Leadership contest.
Fifth out of sixth.
And his stock has only fallen since then — fallen very sharply.
If the worst comes to the worst almost anyone could be leader of the 6 people left in the Labour Party. Currently though, assuming a current cabinet person gets it, I still think it’s most likely to be Harperson, Johnson (as Mandy glove puppet) or Millibanana (as Mandy glove puppet).
While watching Brown’s press conference today, I experienced a whole new level of disdain for the entire situation, and his continued governance over us. His bizarre, awkward laughter when confronted with (surprisingly frank) questions about the re-shuffle, and his adherence to the ludicrous premise that because he’d managed to get all the names together by 4:30pm he had created a smooth re-shuffle, suggest to me that he really has completely retreated away from reality. He avoided answering almost all questions head-on in a way that was notable even for someone who has made a career out of it.
Cameron and to a lesser extent Clegg looked pretty relaxed, comfortable and fluid today (although I was disappointed that I heard the same few sentences from Cameron in a number of different appearances today- guess that’s the price to be paid for slavishly following the news channels for hours on end). I think this can only count in their favour, as increasingly Brown seems to give the impression that it’s all too much for him and he just can’t cope with the pressure. For once I don’t blame him, and even feel some sympathy. Nobody seems either willing or able to communicate properly with him. Flint’s actions are a perfect demonstration of the shifting realities presented to Brown by those he is meant to be leading.
It’s been an incredible couple of days. Tomorrow will be a welcome breather before the excitement of Sunday night.
237.Mr Jones, its one thing to be disloyal to Gordon Brown, and lets face it, not a trait that he has excelled at himself over the years. Remember the methods used by his young Turks to push Blair out of the door of No10, and the way he has briefed against and undermine opponents within his own party. Not exactly going to garner either loyalty or respect, these bullying tactics were always going to fail when he himself became too weak.
No, there are Brownite and Blairite members of the PLP whose loyalty is to the Labour party, not Gordon Brown. And right now Brown is in danger on not just destroying the remains of premiership, but his party as well. Don’t expect some within the party to sit idle by while he does.
252 tholster - I’m sure David wouldn’t mind me telling you that he was a night sub on The Sun.
235 - that’s just one short of not being a party at all. Oh…
Cheers, Peter.
I wish David all the best and very much take a ‘there but for the grace of god’ or ‘it could be me next’ view.
Who is the shifty looking guy, no not Mandy, the guy to the left (as we see it),
http://sl.sky.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/13/7/0d45005c-8ba1-43b9-a7f3-1c2dc84eebc6.Large.jpg
227 cicero
Any explanation why the Lib Dem performance was so poor to-day?
“Gordon Brown forced to repay another £200 expenses after overclaiming on second home”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191217/Gordon-Brown-forced-repay-200-expenses-overclaiming-second-home.html
252 - Night shift sub at Sun Online. Officially I’m still there until next month. I’ve not totally given up on a redeployment but I have the letter of doom in my pocket!
264. I doubt the Euros being at the same time helped us much.
259. “its one thing to be disloyal to Gordon Brown”
That’s the thing though. There’s a bunch of old-fashioned Laboury types in the grey area between active voters and semi-active activists who don’t make those kind of distinctions. They hold to a set of simple, strict rules about things like not rocking the boat the day before an election. It’s all anecdotal but I’ve been hearing that the last day or so - even from people who want Brown shifted.
Can’t really generalize from that small a sample but if it’s true then we may see a bit of a counter-revolution going on if McDoom survives the Euro vote.
243.”Nick Palmer makes a very good point. How can Labour MPs be persuaded to go over the top - like Purnell - unless they have knowledge that a serious player will throw his or her hat into the ring?”
stjohn, maybe there is a serious player ready to step up to the plate. Its interesting that the crew who devised that email have tried so hard to keep their identities secret. Maybe trying to avoid Brown&Co’s attacks to the last minute? Cannot brief against the shadows.
239 - John F. I think you and the other Tory mono-ocular brigade need to calm down. Mark Senior is no more partisan than you are and often provides both and authoritative and welcome balance to the group think that too often pervades what passes for debate here.
By the way the Lib Dems gained seats (which sort of fits in with the BBC vote projection numbers) on Thursday:
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=2159.75
The vote 2007 threads have been devoid of the sort of ludicrously partisan name calling that this site defaults to when more than three Martin Day posts get pasts moderation (ie every day)
244.Oracle, maybe I missed something here, but those journalists cannot add, nor did they give any evidence to back up their claims other than outrageous estimates for some building work. 250,000 for a basement conversion, were the doors or floors made of gold??
Someone should give that article a serious fisk, more holes than a sieve.
264. My guess would be the EU becoming more of an issue with drifting Labour voters.
Just got back to home in Abingdon, after a week away in London, and a lovely evening discussing all this week’s remarkable events with friends in Oxford. Pleased that the Tories mopped up everything in Oxfordshire apart from Oxford of course. Labour vote held up surprisingly well in Oxford - on these results looks like Evan Harris is going to have a fight on his hands although I expect him to hold by 2-3k if I had to put my money on it now. And it looks as though Andrew Smith could hold Oxford East against the trend judging by the council results in his constituency yesterday. Cowley in particular remained remarkably loyal to Labour - overall a very disappointing LibDem performance around the local area.
Will look at the other results in marginal constituencies up and down the country in detail tomorrow when I’m more with it!
I just realised that Mandy is now Gordon’s Willie.
And on that weird and slightly worrying note, goodnight.
271 - Here is from Mail, on Cameron basement in kinder days,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-403563/Cameron-demolishes-half-home-ambitious–163-600k-revamp.html
If the UK GDP did indeed shrink my 2.2% then brown’s economic recovery plan is finished. Does anybody really believe the UK will only shrink by a further 1.3% over the next 9months!!!!!! That should surely be the final umpff the backbenchers need to push him overboard.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8084740.stm
incidently, I believe gordon has entered stage 4 of the 5 sreps of death! His attack dogs stage 2 and the backbenchers stage 3. Spineless cabinate ministers i.e. milliband are clearly at stage 5!!!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_stages_of_death
275 (cont) With the key passage,
The entire rear extension has been demolished and in its place will be a new kitchen and spacious basement extension with a lift. The work will provide more space for the couple’s three children and the extension is wheelchair-accessible to cater for their son Ivan, who has cerebral palsy.
270.Dan, give it a rest. No two posters are more prolific at popping up on here just to insult other regulars of a right leaning nature.
It gets boring, and neither of you have the sense of humour to take the edge of your barbs.
Christina / Oracle - haven’t had time to read much of the past posts - what are your reflections on the week? Mine are:
Three cheers for Ian Gibson, already looking forward immensely to that by-election in Norwich North. Caroline Flint - well what a stunner and what a stunning way to go, oh Caroline why didn’t you keep your mouth shut yesterday, so the “window dressing” claim would have more credibility today.
Will love to hear the stories of Labour MP’s in 10 years time when all the dust has settled. The great thing that isn’t being reported in the MSM is that they can’t organise a coronation for Johnson because of Hattie, and they know that nothing short of a coronation will work in the current climate, so Gordon remains PM by default, and will lead Labour to a much worse result than 1983 now - my friends suggested call an election now for October to get rid of all this speculation, but Gordon is just far too stubborn and pig headed for that - he’ll soldier on for another 12 months, and by then, the desire to be rid of everything associated with ZanuLabour will be a completely unstoppable tide - buy LibDem and Conservative seats I say.
Tom Bradby made two interesting points on ITN News at Ten.
1. Brown’s denial that he intended to sack Darling was simply incredulous.
I posted here earlier today a prediction that this would happen - pretty soon after Darling’s survival was confirmed. And so it came to pass.
This dissembling, following Brown’s similar denial over “the election that never was”, loses Macavity yet another life.
2. Brown may feel compelled to call the GE this year whether he wants to or not.
If Brown manages to stagger on, with a cabinet still stuffed full of “troughers” and with increasing numbers of MPs of all parties discredited by Expensesgate but not standing down for by elections, the public demand for a General Election could become irresistible.
Brown is very much weaker now than a few days ago so his ability to control events is diminished.
A 2009 election now seems more likely to me than 2010 - whether Brown survives or not.
280 - I disagree with point no. 2. Gordo was clear today, absolutely out of his tree and the overwhelming message was I’m not moving. Also, Johnson has nailed his colours to the mast, I can’t see how he can become leader now. Leaves only Harperson, who has been very quiet on Gordo leadership issue either way.
So, I think you are right that the public want a GE, and that call will continue to just grow and grow, but Gordo doesn’t ever listen and is clinging on to the hope that he can spin any sign of a recovery in the economy as a massive endorsement of his genius handling of the financial crisis.
275.Oracle, no way are the Cameron’s worth 30 million. Those articles are a puff of hot air to be honest, and any journalist worth his salt wouldn’t be digging around trying to guess their parents wealth, they could simple pick up the biography done on Cameron soon after he became leader. Or look at the earning power of this couple over the years.
281 (cont) Thus, I think we are going to have to put up with the nutjob until the bitter bitter end.
244 Oracle “…but to be frank £30m isn’t mega money these days.” You do come out with some classics. The average income in the UK is £24,000 pa (£463pw) - although well over half are below this because of pay disparity making the median income about £19,500pa. So OK we are talking worth. Average savings - according to Birmingham Midshires are about £7,500 - although again that average is skewed by the very rich - but let’s be fair - and say our Mr and Mrs. Average own their house outright (no expenses to be claimed for mortgage interest here)and it is roughly average - so about £150k - so our very average family here are worth about 175 times less than Dave if that figure is true.
Assuming Dave got a fairly rate of 1% on his fortune - i.e. he did sod all with it - he would earn nearly double Mr and Mrs Average’s worth in interest alone.
Now remember, these are average people - more than 8 million people have no savings at all. Most people do not own their own house outright, with a around a fifth having no stake in their housing whatsoever.
What I am trying to say, Oracle old chum, is that I think you’ll find your original statement is factually incorrect - that being worth £30m is indeed mega money.
282 - I didn’t say he was worth £30 mill, and I don’t care if he is or isn’t, it is irrelevant. In anything, it is actually a positive in my mind, Blair was always concerned about enriching himself and his family, Cameron has none of those distractions / conflicts of interest.
Ohh look Brown is on telly here!
Just looking quickly at the Staffordshire results from where I grew up, I never ever thought I would see the day when the Tories controlled 49 of the 62 council seats!
The results in Newcastle-under-Lyme are just remarkable, Paul Farreley has to be really concerned now whether he can hold on - Burton and Cannock Chase look to be nailed on Tory gains on these results as well as Tamworth - Brian Jenkins is the biggest dead duck standing in parliament virtually based on these results. Stoke South with a potential big BNP vote could be very interesting if the Tories manage to maximise their vote, particularly in the Trentham end of the seat - all in all fascinating.
281. Agree. If McDoom stays then the GE is most likely to be the very last day possible imo.
284 - £30m is not “mega” money as a family fortune. Yes it is a lot more than “normal” people have or will ever see, but neither will “Normal” people ever earn a million in a year. For a good city trader, a million a year, is what they would aim for minimum. We have footballers earning £10m+ a year for kicking a football around, how much is David Beckham worth? On that kind of scale a family fortune of £30m is no great shakes, SirAlan is worth £700m is he not?
280-StJohn-Agree with point 1. But the mistake wasn’t Brown’s answer to the press. But his briefing that Balls was going to get the job.
Brown couldn’t have said on national television: “Yes, I wanted to sack Darling, but I perceived that my survival would be threatened if I did so”. Half clever like always.
“Half clever like always.”
Yes. Good description.
289 (cont) I would rather categorise Cameron as a very wealthy man, but not in the mega rich category.
284 Albeit being tired,somewhat less-than-sober,and as a council worker,I am bound to be a point or two to the left- but so are many,many of my ‘white-van-man’ friends,95% + are in employment,and at the worst,are on a 4-day week-hey ho,I cannot have a new car and 3 foreign holidays this year-doh,I am an adult.
Todays local govt results in my humble-ish opinion co-incide with the view that however p1ssed off people are with GB (who I hope Monday’s PLP meeting finsishes him,honest!),there is no huge groundswell for the opposoition,and whilst,from a very low base,become the largest party in a ‘hung parlaimnet ’scenario,that is the situation I foresee many of us having to be more polite than average to Rod Crosby come the event!
279&280. Hurstlama & stjohn, we live in surreal times, and the Tom Bradby comments in the 6pm ITN news were totally damning. In fact, I don’t even think he, or any of his colleagues at Sky or the BBC can quite get a handle on how to report Brown’s behaviour this week.
Brown should not still be in No10 Downing Street tonight, Thatcher and Blair left office before this stage of the game. But maybe that is because they were both more in touch and political astute than Brown and his team?? And considering how long they had been at the top, and how out of touch they were becoming, that is saying something.
No, the biggest problem for the Labour party is not just Brown, its also the weak and gutless second team in the Cabinet too. Message to all those leadership hopefuls who remain in the Cabinet, we are way passed the stage of a Thatcher or Major, in fact its now worse than IDS. And its no longer a Ken Clarke or Michael Howard figure that is needed. You have flunked it, and that means that no one is in control of this spiral of destruction anymore.
I don’t think that Brown will call a GE, the threat of an early one is the very weapon that is being used to try and snuff out the rebellions and plots. Maybe they think that everyone else is as scared of having one as Brown and his team are right now? Yet, a genuine belief that an Autumn GE might be better than hanging on, has to be one of the main reasons why some are trying to get rid of Brown right now. With him at the helm, they will limp onto May 2010, and only to see Brown leave them high and dry at the last moment. That must be a real fear, where would it leave the party’s credibility, almost as shot as Brown’s or the other hopefuls?
I am still convinced that there is a very clear strategy being used by one group of plotters right now, without even being publicly named or even producing a list of names. The infamous letter going public, and being brandished about by breathless journalists, who needs 100 signatures on the bottom right now? The very fact its being circulated and reported in the media is destabilising Brown and his team further.
Have the EU poll totals already been counted, or are they counted on sunday??
Betfair has both the lib dems and UKIP the clear favourities (and very similar odds) to beat labour.
270 Dan
‘Mark Senior is no more partisan than you are and often provides both and authoritative and welcome balance to the group think that too often pervades what passes for debate here.’
Almost every week he reminds us how important by-elections are and highlights one or two Lib Dem by-election results (and rubbishes the Tory poll leads) and yet we had a real election yesterday with the most unpopular ever Labour government with the Lib Dems losing 2 councils and at the last count around 46 county councillors.
I know this must be painful but the reality as oppossed to Mark’s rhetoric is clear for all to see.
**** Betting Post ****Earlier this evening, David Herdson posted the following which caught my eye:
“Ref Labour’s share for the Euros.
Labour scored a projected 23% if we believe the TV channels. That’s with 11% going to ‘others’. In the Euros, we can reasonably expect Others to score a minimum of something like UKIP 15%, Green 8%, BNP 6%, SNP+Plaid 4%, minnows 3%: a total of 36%, leaving just 64% for the big three - and probably less. Pro rata-ing would leave Labour with 16.5%, although I’m not sure that’s a reliable way of doing it (I still think the Lib Dems are more likely to finish fourth than Labour). Even so, a sub-20% share looks certain and sub-18% entirely possible.”
Whils understandingly hedging his bets, he nevertheless suggests a minimum share of 15% for UKIP and pretty much a maximum of 18% for Labour. I am guessing therefore that he would not be too surprised to see the shares of both parties at or close to the mid point of 16.5% which happens to be Labour’s pro-rated figure based on their actual vote in the local elections, certainly this would accord with my own views.
In such circumstances, therefore and before a single vote has been counted, it is surprising to see on Betfair (pretty much the only Euro market still operating that the odds against one of these two parties finishing above the other in terms of seats won are very different with UKIP the hot favourite at 0.37/1 and Labour languishing, unloved, at 2.65/1. This despite the fact that Labour has an electoral advantage over UKIP in terms of seats:votes, just as it does over the Tories in terms of constituency voting in UK elections.
Could it possibly be that backing Labour at these seemingly generous odds, is the last value bet of these elections?
289. But that’s the point - you’re comparing him with a relatively small amount of people who are on another planet compared to most of us. The majority of people in this country are worth less than my Mr and Mrs Average. If the Camerons are worth even a tenth of the figure you quoted, they are still worth 15 to 20 times more than most of the people in this country. Whether that is a moral issue or not depends on your perspective - but it still means that your point that it is not ‘mega money’ is fundamentally off the mark, whether it bothers you or not.
Looking at Times Rich List 2009,
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/specials/rich_list/rich_list_search/?l=27#searchtop
£30 million for whole Cameron family would only just get him into top 2000. They claim he has £38 mill, but he is denying he even has £30 million. Making you the 2000th richest family in the country is hardly “mega”, and when you compare £20-30 mill “fortunes”, with the top 100 say, and Cameron family do have that kind of money, they are relative paupers.
295 ryans - I’m sure the Euro votes are not counted until Sunday and even then under considerable secrecy whilst most of the rest of Europe votes.
299 (cont) - Also, as I said, I couldn’t give a toss how much money he has, and not as if Brown or Clegg are exactly skint. Gordo is easily a millionaire, and all the crap about humble beginning is just that, crap. As for Clegg, basically has just a posh a background as Cameron.
294 “Brown should not still be in No10 Downing Street tonight, Thatcher and Blair left office before this stage of the game.”
Definitely true. It shows:
a) The strange power that sometimes accrues from being mental.
b) Pravda can take on everyone else and win, or at least draw.
300 - A good number of councils were using one box for both county and EU votes - and so some of the papers will already have been sorted
I amsure a few eagle-eyed politicos will have tried to sneak a look
Why trigger an election now if you can trough for a year as an MP?
1) If you think you’ll be joining the dole queue, you’ll be further toward the back in a year’s time when unemployment has risen to 3m and beyond
2) Ongoing expenses aren’t going to be a personal money maker in the way they have been in the past
3) If you own a second property, now would be a better time to sell while there is a dead cat bounce in the property market. You could be down 15-20% in a year
4) Leaving terms are likely to be a lot less generous in a year’s time than they are now by the time Kelly has had a go at them.
5) You may gain some kudos for helping to rid us of this terrible priest - you will get none in a year’s time
In short, the money calculation may not be as favourable as you might first think, and your future employment prospects may look better if there is an election sooner rather than later
296. The Guardian website says with 33 out of 34 councils counted that the Lib Dems have lost 4 councillors overall - including (he admits shamefacedly - although having had business and family commitments I accept only a scintilla of the blame :-)) the 19 lost in my home area of Devon.
302. Please stop with the Pravda nonsense, it’s embarrassing. Admittedly they seemed desperate to put an anti-Tory slant on the election results, but I got no impression they were supporting Brown at all.
I really do not believe the average voter is desperate for an election. The reason for this is simply that there is no real appetite for Mr. Cameron. He had an opportunity to forge ahead with the expenses row by deselecting but he chose not to. This means that, although Labour is widely detested for the mess in public finances as well as the sleaze, the Conservatives are not picking up the same wedge of votes that swung to Mrs. Thatcher and then to Mr. Blair. This non-partisan sector of the electorate is less ready to leap to a leader, and it is leaders they look for, who has not shown his/her ability to lead and promote an alternative vision. This is where Mr. Cameron has so singularly failed so far. I believe that Mr. Cameron may not get the overwhelming majority he thinks will be his if either the economy turns, Lisbon is ratified or Labour get a leader with inclusive leadership ability. I am certainly not a fan of Ms. Harman but I do believe she could at least rescue Labour from obliteration.
307 - You are mixing too issues.
1) The public wanting a general election, all polling data is saying that is the case and they want it asap. Not sure where you are getting your claims of otherwise.
2) The public wanting Cameron, who knows, we will only know if we get a GE.
If Pravda would stop the nonsense that would be a real turn-up for the book.
I have been one of the people apparently blocked out of both pb sites for most of the day. Eventually - I am sometimes a bird of very little brain - it occurred to me to try Internet Explorer instead of Mozilla Firefox - whereupon I got instant and very speedy access to both sites. So the problem, which is really frustrating for those caught in it, is evidently some kind of browser problem. Using a different browser is a lot simpler than the procedure on pb2, which didn’t work for me in any case, grateful though I was for the suggestion.
I can’t tell you how nice it is to be back. I was beginning to think Brown would be out of office by the time I knew what you all thought about what’s been happening. I’m still convinced that he’s ill, however. He’s rapidly becoming a complete headcase and if the PLP doesn’t deal with it, the men in white coats will soon have to. I feel very sorry for Sarah Brown. She must be worried sick about him.
298
‘But that’s the point - you’re comparing him with a relatively small amount of people who are on another planet compared to most of us.’
So I guess Huhne,Woodward,Robinson,Sainsbury and Sugar would also be on another planet.
307, Cut-and-astro-paste-urfer alert!
310 - Same issue although I followed the PB2 method and then posted a comment which seemed to fix it. Very frustrating!
311 - No, the likes of Robinson and Sugar are in another universe!
310. Yes, biggest and weirdest day in politics for decades and locked out of the best greek chorus on teh interweb. I got a lot of gardening done instead though so not all bad.
I see our friends on the BBC website don’t seem to think that they should be reporting that Gordo claimed for two homes at the same time and put a bagpiper for a veterans service on expenses!
307 - The same Ray Finch that is bringing up the rear on the UKIP list for the South East?
312 - It’s the phrase ‘there is no appetite for’ that gives away the fevered mind of a politico.
302.Mr Jones, when I watched that Brown press conference today, I realised that we were in uncharted territory, we are now in the worst period in British politics in my living memory. The current situation is truly desperate for all those involved in the Labour party, we now have Brown/Balls and Mandelson in charge of the government, and that is a catastrophic situation for the Labour party. How the hell its managed to come to this will be debated for years to come, but make no mistake, they have already destroyed the Labour party for a least a generation with their actions over the last few weeks and months.
The whole Cabinet over the last 2/3 years will have to take some of the collective responsibility for this mess as well. And much as it pains me to say it, the likes of Reid and Clark can hold their heads high above that bunch of pygmies.
311. Yes. I wasn’t trying to make any kind of moral point - I was just arguing with Oracle’s dismissal of it as a trifling amount. It isn’t - it is a shed load of wealth. If anything, my point was that trying to say it is not that much undermines Oracle when he says it does not matter. Surely better to say that - yes it is a shed load of wealth to have, but that doesn’t impact on his character. You will have those that agree and those that disagree with this - but at least it is honest.
A look at psr keele,the manifestoes of 1983 and 1987,the sheer terror of unemployment,the sheer ignorance of macro-econmoic policy in the 1980s-no wonder so many of my (38-year-old) generation will at best pay lip service,then vote in whatever way a Tory candidate.
321 AGAINST a Tory candidiate,I obviously meant to say!
Doesn’t McBride realise that unless you order people to paraphrase, cut-and-paste plagiarism is easy to spot?!
Not all of us here are as dumb as the average Labour voter.
320 - I didn’t say it was a “trifling” amount, I said it wasn’t “mega”!!!
Looks at the Times Rich List and you see “mega” wealth, people worth several billion, I said Cameron was a very wealthy man.
316.Why did the Telegraph miss that little gem when they did the others in the Cabinet, and why publish it tonight? Think about it.
317
That is indeed me.
Well I’m your age Patrick and I’ll be voting Conservative, just as I did on Thursday.
Now get some sleep before you really embarrass yourself.
319. Yup - and much more likely to get worse than better imo.
321 Patrick, are you truly 38 years of age?
324 - Anyone who is on the Rich List anywhere (even 2000th) is bloody rich!
330 - Arrrrhh, I never said Cameron wasn’t rich!!!!! I said he wasn’t “mega” rich, there is a big difference between having £20-30 million and several billion. That is all I said, I never ever said Cameron wasn’t very wealthy, I simply used the phase “mega” wealthy.
323 - You got the wrong party ‘horse!
Anyone else think that the Tories will do better than predicted on Sunday, and that UKIP might be disappointed? It might be worth pointing out that UKIP will do better in some areas, but not others where they are basically deemed an irrelevance.
323.
Errr!
If you are accusing me of being a Labour Party operative then you certainly have the wrong man.
As for cut and paste.
Wrong there too.
I want rid of this lot as much as anybody but, as I said above, Mr. Cameron is not offering any sort of radical alternative in the sense that Mrs. Thatcher or Mr. Blair did.
F*** Thatcher, but she never tried to force me to pay for and carry an ID card.
It’s Derby Day and I backed the now favourite Sea the Stars a couple of months ago, when he majestically won one of the trials. If he gets the distance he looks unbeatable - a truly exceptional horse.
Good luck every one and goodnight.
331 (cont) Obviously people definition of “mega” rich are different. Personally I don’t think £20 million is “mega” rich in todays world, it makes you a very wealthy person, but nowhere near the elite bracket.
I mean 50 cent the rapper is worth $500 million, Cameron isn’t worthy to “roll” with his crew, not enough money to bling it up
Maybe Ming is though 
“I want rid of this lot as much as anybody but…”
Ah, now why am I reminded of the phrase, “I’m no racist, but…”?
327
(a)Good evening
(b)I am pretty in control of my emotions
(c)Your last remark about ‘embarassing myself’ says more about the nastier wing of the Tories (I hope not yourself) than me.
Night all,have a good weekend.
333.
I think the Tories will do better than anticipated in terms of percentages.
However, I do not think it will be at the expense of UKIP. I believe the Labour and LibDems votes will both collapse. I also think the Greens will do a lot better.
333 - Ladbrokes guy on Sky this afternoon had Tories for 30%+ at odds on. Make of that what you will.
333 - I think the Tories will actually do quite badly in comparison to what you would expect with the current opinion polls. I’d be surprised if the results were better than last Euros.
341 - Well that would make a nice surprise.
333 Christina - just before I turn off the laptop, I think the Tories are pretty well nailed on to get 27-30% of the vote.
As I posted 40 minutes ago I reckon UKIP are an unknown quantity and could attract anything beween 12-18% of the vote, it is assumed they will finish 2nd, but I think Labour may be very close or possibly just ahead, we shall soon see!
321
Agree the unemployment prospects are frightening,a few more months and the 1980’s figures will be overtaken,so much for the ‘no more boom and bust’ manifesto.
Also frightening is all this hot air about democracy and constitutional reform and at the same time cramming the cabinet full of unelected peers.
333. Before the results my guess was Tories to win easy - UKIP and LD neck a neck for 2nd and 3rd - Labour and Greens neck a neck for 4th and 5th. (In terms of votes - no idea how the seats work as my will to live evaporates within nano-seconds when I look at pages describing D’Hondt.)
Now, more or less the same but with Labour maybe nudged up a bit against the Greens because of the counter intuitive reaction I picked up over the Blairites resigning and a bit more inclined to UKIP being ahead of LD.
338.
Because you are incapable of thinking in anything other than narrowly party terms?
Because you are drunk?
You tell me.
As for Mrs. Thatcher, and indeed Mr. Blair, I did not say I liked either of them. I stated that they offered a radical alternative to the then governing party.
333 - ChrisD, really couldn’t say how UKIP will perform on the day, they certainly made little impression here in South Wiltshire. UKIP failed to pick up any councillors in the new unitary council; however the LibDems did brilliantly here, 24 elected on 24.5%.
Tories very disappointing and only managing to scrape 62 (63.3%) phaa..!
333
‘Anyone else think that the Tories will do better than predicted on Sunday’
No,maybe worse as many Tory voters I know,including most of my family have leant their Euro vote to UKIP.
One thought before I go to bed. Saw another surreal moment on the TV today that I think got missed on here. Cameron has sealed the deal when you have life long Labour supporters standing on camera admitting that they voted Tory for the first because it was time for change. The most remarkable thing about the results today, look away Rod Crosby, was the swing against labour in some wards. Absolutely stunning. And the only conclusion I could reach, was that many long time Labour supporters turned out and voted for a variety of other parties. But most importantly, a lot of them didn’t turn out at all.
Mike has often mentioned those missing Tory voters who deserted the party between 1992 and 1997, well I think that is now happening to the Labour. That is why I believe that a higher turnout will propel the Tories into power with a majority, Labour voters just won’t turn out in the numbers required, but the those missing Tory voters will.
When I say Tories to win easy - I think that means around 30% with closest rival around 18%. So not a resounding win in the normal sense but good considering their non-principled stance on Lisbon.
341.Oracle, I voted for the Tories getting 31-100% because I thought that they might scrap just above 31% on Sunday. Would have liked Mike to have allowed for a 31-33% slot.
335. Weren’t the tories all for ID cards during the Thatcher years? Labour were against them. I don’t trust either party on them as they have both flip-flopped on them depending on what suits them at the time,
test
353 – PJ,
“MARGARET THATCHER has put herself at the forefront of the campaign to stop identity cards, claiming they have ‘Germanic’ origins and would neither protect Britain from the threat of a terrorist attack nor reduce crime.”
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-126297450.html
342.David, the results today have given me reason to hope. I think that the combined efforts of the Cameron effect, and the Ashcroft marginals strategy is behind the Tory successes today. I think that it might carry us in the Euro’s as well. As I pointed out earlier, don’t make the mistake that UKIP has UK wide appeal, it doesn’t.
JohnF said at 2:10 am
321
Agree the unemployment prospects are frightening,a few more months and the 1980’s figures will be overtaken,so much for the ‘no more boom and bust’ manifesto.
Remember that the method of calculation used for the ‘official’ employment stats bear no relation now to how it was done in the early 8o’s. The real number is way higher now than then I imagine.
353 Going a little deeper,that kinda proves the moral hypocrisy of many Tories; ‘Do as I say,not as I do’.
The classic case was the teenagers arrested in the West Midlands for braking tree branches to climb a tree-I personally climbed many a tree in my younger days without ripping branches off.
Jeez,you should have heard their parents screaming to the Daily Mail! Bet they’d have accepted it if it had been under a Tory govt-bring back gulags for garbage like that!!
351 - I did exactly the same.
353.Paul, you walked into this one, but here goes. Always rate a party that has learned from its past mistakes. Thatcher, NI, Brighton bombing and the IRA and its political wing. Don’t underestimate the genuine and passionate opposition to this current Labour governments draconian behaviour to our personal liberty from within my party.
My guess, more or less:
Tory 30
UKIP 18
LD 16
Lab 14
Green 12
BNP 10
Will UKIP get 15 seats or more? I’m quite exposed on the 14 or fewer side of this bet and would appreciate an answer from the night shift (yes, Mr. Loony, that means you) so I can decide whether or not to take a little evasive action…
Worth a read - quite amusing, especially David Brent at Work and pensions.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6440507.ece
comment posted on Labourhome..
“It’s worse than that. I’m trying to apply Labour’s numbers in East Anglia to the coming general election, and they herald a rout. We’re not talking the Tories 1997. We’re talking Canada’s Progressive Conservatives 1993.
I’ll post a link once I’ve finished crunching the numbers and put them online. They’re terrifying, and show why we need the poll bump that Gordon resigning will give us.”
Ooops .. someone gets it! Be nice to see those numbers.
364. New thread.
test
Test - to see if I can make site work for me.
Test only
Greetings pb-peeps from the Indian Ocean, where the sun has just set.
I assume I haven’t missed anything of note in the past thirty hours?
BTW, discovered that the site is blocked in the UAE…
TEST