Is Labour losing the tax and spend argument?
June 17th, 2009
Does the party need to refine its approach?
With policies on tax and spend dominating PMQs and almost the whole political debate at the moment there’s a new poll out from PoliticsHome that could cause Labour strategists to re-think their approach.
As can be seen in the chart the overall shares on who is “most honest” were CON 37: LD 28: LAB 16: NONE 28 But when this is broken down those polled describing themselves as non-aligned split: CON 33: LAB 6: LD 23: NONE 40
To my mind the poll reflects the differences in approach between Balls/Brown and the chancellor Alistair Darling. Being believed is going to be critical if they are to have a fighting chance.
Given that this is going to be the key issue in the coming election Labour needs to find a way of putting over its position in a manner that is believed. I think the party is badly let down by Ed Balls.
PoliticsHome interviewed 1,295 adults by email between 15 - 16 June 2009 and results are weighted by party ID to reflect the UK at large. Although PH is not yet a member of the British Polling council they have been very ready to share with me details of their methodology and other aspects of their operation.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
A fist in the face of the firsties!
If Ed Balls supports any policy, you know the policy is wrong.
Honesty is the best policy!
Yes they need to listen to Darling.
FPT - 566 - Is there anybody on the Iranian’s Christmas card list?
I doubt it very much.
Or on Israel Easter Egg list.
4: how about Winterval card list then?
I am shocked at 28% saying the LD!
They tall even bigger porkers than Labour!
Maybe Brown is just about got to evens with them on the Porker board with reguard to spending and taxation. Of course what is worse is Labour is supposed to be a serious Party where as LD are Jokers! Looks like the Two (LD Plus Labour) have been puffing on the same shit! 
http://tinyurl.com/cz3ewc
Yes. They are trying to re-run the 2001 and 2005 elections when the whole world has changed. Not only do the public believe Labour wouldn’t have to cut spending, they want a government that is prepared to cut spending.
4: Brown was 95% of the way to sacking Darling 2 weeks ago. Is there any chance he’s going to listen to him. Especially on the economy where ‘Gordon knows best’.
Imagine if we really had seen Balls and Brown as Chancellor and PM, the sheer fantasy and fabricated world of their economics would surely have led to a gilt-strike?
FPT Apologies but as you’ll see it’s my last comment today.
563 et al.
Huge number of responses tim, looks like you’ve stirred a hornets nest
My last response to this. I think this is a fascinating topic and would like to continue but don’t have the time.
I’ve seen the impact on individuals of long term uncontrolled opiate use. It’s not pretty. Generally, as the addiction progresses, the need for higher and/or more frequent doses increases. The side effects reduce the ability to contribute to ‘norma’ society and legal economic activity decreases. Eventually other body systems start to shut down and the person becomes ill. The point I was trying to make upthread was that DESPITE all the prevention/detection/control measures in place and the social stigma of using (especially) opiates, there is still an increase in the number of addicts. What would be the rate of increase if these social stigma were removed?
Good discussion guys (and gals?) signing off for today soon.
by Blue rog June 17th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
3 Yes, indeed it is, Slackbladder. Let’s call it “Option A”.
The problem Labour has is that they find that the tactics that brought them this far now has them 2-0 down.
I think you have the LD and Lab figures the wrong way around for non-aligned voters. Lab only got 6%, I believe.
12 - it reminds me of Sven picking that stupid diamond formation game in, game out, and thinking that Hargreaves going to right back was the most important substitution he could make.
4 One of a series of very short lists and books, eg.
* What Christiano Ronaldo knows about modesty
* Gordon Brown’s “Tips for telling the truth”
* The Conservative Guide to winning bye-elections
As apposed to very big lists, e.g.
* Ammunition for Morris Dancer’s space Gun
* Items on the list of expense claims of an average politican
* Non-Mancunians who support Manchester United
Mike Smithson:
You have got the LD and Lab figures around the wrong way in the second set of figures. It should read LD 23 Lab 6
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/labour_least_honest_on_spending_plans.html
Mike Smithson:
You have got the LD and Lab figures around the wrong way in the second set of figures. It should read LD 23 Lab 6
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/labour_least_honest_on_spending_plans.html
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor:
‘A political career shelved’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2009/06/a_political_career_shelved.html
3.
Indeed, Honesty is the best policy and that is what Cameron and Co need to stick with. Be Honest and Bold and to hell with what the opponents think, because as sure as the day is long the truth will always emerge, and if you ain’t told it, the public will dump you. That is why at the next election campaign the tory’s need to emphasis labours 2005 broken manifesto pledges ie, A promised referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the recent higher rate tax rise etc . The next election theme will be about honesty and trust especially after all the expenses fiasco we have had !
Keith Jenner - just wanted to be sure you’d picked up my suggestions on books on statistics on th elast thread
Yes, Labour should put Brown on TV immediately and get him to recant his fantasy spending increases (say it was a lapse of judgement or something). Then lock him in the ‘War Room’ till 2010 and let Alistair do the straight-with-the-people bit. Drastic but it might limit some of the damage.
“Pressure grows for public Iraq inquiry
(…)There is now a real feeling in Westminster that this issue is going the same way as the Gurkha row, which saw Brown forced into a deeply embarrassing climbdown over their rights to settle in Britain. It is argued he refused to listen to concerns over that issue until it was far too late and that he misjudged the nature of the row.”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/49090,news,the-mole-pressure-grows-for-public-iraq-inquiry-gordon-brown-uk-politics
18 - Do you believe Osborne and Cameron are being honest when they claim that the non doms will pay for the IHT cut and the Stamp Duty reduction?
Is anyone else going to be very, very bored of a yearlong slanging match about cuts and spending?
You’re going to cut….so are you, your lying….no your lying…my dad can beat up your dad….you smell…
19. Nick Palmer MP
Just out of interest were you in the chamber when the condoms full of purple talc were thrown at the Former PM (Blair)? What was your thought at the time? Must have been scary as you did not know it was an innert substance!
12.
James, Only 2nil down ? Who were the scorer’s anyway ?
15/16. That’s a relief, I was staring at that figure. The only greater shock came when Martin didn’t lead on it.
23, I’m sure it will become smotheringly tedious.
But let us remember that at the end we may finally be rid of this vile Government and the most despicable leader we’ve had since the war. Some PMs were ineffective but decent, some were competent but cold. Brown has no virtue to accompany his vices.
Re 15. Changed
26.
Labour are doomed, DOOMED at the next election!
:)
Gordon Brown = Neil Kinnock
:)
26. Corporeal. LOL. Whilst all parties honesty can be questioned there is absolutely no way the Libdems could be seen as more dishonest than Labour at this current juncture.
As Jonathan picked up earlier today, the Conservatives seem to have switched tack slightly and are concentrating, not on quoting hard-to-understand figures, but on a simpler and more powerful message: ‘Labour are dishonest about the coming cuts’.
That is a smart move.
25 - I wouldn’t stretch my analogy too far Wayne
I think it’s an important point about honesty that Mike raises.
Labour’s spending plans are there in black and white for all to see.
The Tories, however, seem to be defending their 10% cuts on the basis that this is more or less the same as Labour. Which implies, of course, that they are planning to SPEND the same as Labour.
Yet they have consistently said they would not match Labour’s spending - Osborne even attacked it as “unsustainable”.
Given that many people - the financial markets included - expect the Tories to win the next election, it’s time for Cameron to come clean and be honest.
FPT - hamish on the Michael Forsyth’s fury at the Calman Report: - “Michael Forsyth mentioned Tam Dayell’s remark that Devolution was a motorway with no exits towards Independence. I don’t agree with him. I think there are exits to refreshment stops on the way there.”
21: The difference between Iraq and the Gurkha’s is that an public inquiry could(/would?) be highly politically embarassing for the government. The Gurkhas was (only) an issue of money (and right and wrong of course, but lets not let that get in the way).
26. No, I have a headache today! I thought it looked strange but was surprised at the 28%! That took my attention!
I always get a headache when i sign on, dont know why? People always stink of tabacco or of moldy cheese as well, when they sit next to me!
29 Sunil. *GROAN* Don’t YOU start…..
4 Irony
Do you know? I really think some chickens are coming home to roost! labours’ and Jimmy Brown’s lies could surely not last for ever?
Gordon Brown = Robert Mugabe!
New Labour = Zanu PF!
FPT Easterross - “As a Unionist I expect Scotland to become independent one day but as with Canute’s noblemen, we cannot stand by the beach and tell the tide to go back when it is advancing.
Calman at best is like a Dutch polder. It will keep the sea at bay for a while but eventually the sea will find a way through and then the entire dam system will be breached.
So too will be the situation with devolution. Unless Cameron grasps a form of federal UK, Calman will indeed just lead to the point at which the average Scot will say “why not” when asked about independence because by then the Scottish Parliament will be doing virtually everything for Scotland what Westminster currently does for England.”
The Dutch polder analogy is a sound one. Let’s just see how big David Cameron’s thumb is…
My prediction: the Tories will not go for a federal UK. Thus the Union is doomed.
35 Martin D. Not terribly well phrased old cheese !!
31: I would expect that 80% of the public don’t understand the majority of the numbers. The other 20% know that wordings and figures can be highly manipulated, so that what they are talking about isn’t always what you beleive or understand it to be.
People do understand debt though. Debt has to be paid back ,or serviced. Increasing debt means more interest, which means more tax or less spending.
That people understand.
if the PM said that his name was Gordon Brown people would not believe him.his “street cred” is totally shot through!
OT: whiny people crying about adverts.
Apparently Duffy, as she is known, is a pop star/singer/band and has a new music video/advert/commercial out, which has prompted 18 inbred mutants to complain because:
“Eighteen viewers complained the singer, from Nefyn, Gwynedd, was not wearing reflective clothing and her bicycle had no lights in the Diet Coke commercial.”
If people are taking life lessons from adverts they should be slapped about the face. Would I complain if I used Lynx and it didn’t make attractive women tear my clothes off? [Happily this happens anyway as women are powerless against a man wearing bells and waving a wiffle stick].
17 Loved this comment on BBC blog post about Devine…
8. At 3:32pm on 17 Jun 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:
It’s only taken three months for the BBC to admit that Mr Devine exists.
Can I take it that since Brian Taylor’s mentioned Mr Devine in this article my post isn’t going to be censored
And how long have we been talking about this on PB nevermind the Scottish press?
31.” ‘Labour are dishonest about the coming cuts’.
That is a smart move.”
Agree, and its a natural progression from their focus on the national debt.
“People do understand debt though. Debt has to be paid back ,or serviced. Increasing debt means more interest, which means more tax or less spending. ”
Not according to Gordon Brown, who thinks that increasing the amount of money spent on paying interest on debt means that one is increasing the amount of money spent on public services.
Brown was backed into this corner at last week’s PMQ’s but, to anyone with a brain, it could be seen as being only the start of a long term strategy. This week’s session was just continuing this, letting him dig even deeper into the hole. He can’t tell the truth now that he’s been backed into this corner and that’s his problem and the country’s tragedy.
The electorate are faced with believing a comforting lie or an uncomfortable truth. I’d like to think we are adult enough to cope with the latter.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave…
The spending row continues, and I suspect this round is going to go against Gordon Brown.
At PMQs, Mr Brown said this: “Capital expenditure will grow until the year of the Olympics.” (See Hansard for full record.)
But have a look at the Budget, and in particular table C4. It shows that net investment will be £44 billion in 2009/10, and will fall every year thereafter until 2013/14, when it will be £22 billion.
So how does No 10 explain Mr Brown’s statement, which certainly appears to be at odds with the Budget book?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/james_kirkup/blog/2009/06/17/gordon_browns_spending_claims_dont_add_up
46 31
As I have said before:
When Gordon Brown makes a political choice, his decision is the one choice that costs him the most in the long term.
eg. Private Iraq enquiry.
No labour cuts.
Gordon is like a robot wired to reach the wrong political decision.
Anyone watching Sky News.
Odds on Sinn Fein vs Combat 18?
52, maybe he was sent from the future by our enemies in World War Five?
41/36 I agree. The only thing I would add would be to take it to an even simpler level and talk about cutting up Gordon’s credit cards.
That would stop the nonsense about ‘investment’ in its tracks.
47 - I’ve said this before, Sean. Brown really doesn’t have a grip with the same world any of the rest of us inhabit.
It doesn’t matter to him WHAT the money is sp*nked away on, merely that he is spending more in total.
More debt, it seems, is a fine thing to him as it means he gets to increase total spending to service the interest. No matter that it harms other areas of spending where it might actually, despite the management failures of the Labour government, do some good.
Nothing we’ve seen recently changes the simple fact that Brown is economically incompetent and has only one “weapon” - higher overall spending.
54. Morris Dancer
Brown is certainly a Terminator of Jobs, Standards of living, economic growth and the truth!
54
morris dancer
By space cannon?
38. Sorry Disraeli just my Martin Day impression for the day!
22.
Tim, You have been doing so well - please don’t spoil it !
As I said to you this morning if you start to feel angry take deep breaths, find a nice quiet spot in the garden, cross your legs and humn (preferably to long live the conservatives)
56. I think that Brown misses the point that Government spending is not Wealth creation or sustainable without the private sector growing at the same time. The way Brown is going he is going to start creating Public owned Industry to pay for the government spending!
This Publically owned industry will be like the phantom armies Hiter directed from the Bunker! 
It may not be nice or comfortable but the Public sector is going to have to be axed massively! On the plus side this should mean the private sector economy takes off in about 5 years time assuming Gordon does not lay anymore boobytraps for the future of this country. Though we will be paying for Brown for years!
Just remeber i told you all so about Brown when he took over!!!
50 Yes indeed. Tories must come out fighting on this and make the case for lower spending. Why just because Brown went on a giant splurge with money we didn’t have, should we keep on spending at these silly levels? Cuts are a good thing. Let Brown bang on about 10% all he likes as far as I care… the public aren’t as stupid as he thinks.
Missed PMQ’s today, but see that there was a question about Damian McBride. Was Brown able to give a categorical denial that he is no longer working for the Civil Service or the Labour party in any capacity?
And how hard can it be for a decent investigative journalist to find this out, especially after the way the Times outed an anonymous blogger yesterday.
567 (last thread): No Sunil, I don’t know. Who said (s)he was a libertarian forty years ago?
43: JackW, don’t be too hard on Martin: how could he necessarily know what signers-on smell like unless they were sitting next to him, or at least very near him? A philosophical point to ponder!
62. Wiganer,
Brown seems to pick the wrong argument and take the wrong side everytime! What an idiot! I bet Cameron cannot believe his luck since 2007! Brown has screwed everything up politically!
Sadly he has screwed the economy as well!
63 - No,
Lee Scott asks whether the “government” has recevied any “informal briefings” from Damian McBride. Brown’s response: “I have not.” Hm. Kinda ambiguous.
66 (cont) Meant to say that was a quote from Speccy Blog of PMQ’s.
63. Iirc he was asked if he’d had any meetings or something along those lines.
56 Does he really expect people to believe that spending on public will rise, so long as you include increased expenditure on debt interest and unemployment benefit, and exclude sharp cuts in capital spending?
I was bemused by PMQ [not unusual] and the attempts by GB and DC to accuse each other of wanting to “make cuts”.
My gut feeling is that an awful lot of people out there would support a party which said -
“in hard times we need to cut back; we can cut back; we will cut back”
That is, after all, what millions of [cliche alert] ‘hard-working families’ are already doing!
69- Yes he does. Rememeber the 10p tax thing? He thought that by denying that there would be any losers, that somehow we would all believe him. What a magnificent Prime Minister we have!
60 - Didn’t think so.
It seems no one believes Osborne about anything.
His forecasts and his tax plans are the work of Nadines Narnia project.
69. I really do hate Gordon Brown! He seems to think it funny as well!
Martin Day - yes, I got part of the purple shower, an uneasy moment. Joked to my neighbour that if it was indeed anthrax there were about to be an awful lot of by-elections - later got ticked off by a constituent who saw us chuckling on TV for inappropriate levity.
72 We’ve regressed.
Evidence for this assertion?
70. CreweGwyn
Its like anything people become more altraistic when they have spare cash. Now they don’t it is look after number one time!
Interestingly i cannot see why the Tories have said International development is a good thing (Spokesman at least) in the last few days! Politically speaking that should be the first to be chopped as even under Labour the reciepants dont vote here!
75 - I’m sure the Chinese won’t miss £65 million!
74, must’ve been bloody worrying. I don’t mind people having unorthodox methods of getting publicity for their cause but that was bloody stupid.
75 Martin, I thought that too and then guessed it was a sop to the sandal wearing fraternity - it’s worth a tiny fraction of the NHS and ticks the ‘caring Tory’ box for those who need to hold their nose.
66 I would stake a few bob though that Balls is still in close contact with “Mr McBride”. Gordon’s answer still leaves that possibility very much alive…
72
There you are Tim, there’s your smear, Of course what you say is not true, but then rarely is anything. Its just a plain and simple smear.
74. Interesting! A bit tight of the constituent, maybe they had never heard of gallows humour!!!
I watched that in a Bank where i was paying some money in IIRC in a lunch break! I suppose their is not much you can do in such circumstances!
70 - Gwyn, Cameron wasn’t trying to imply that there wouldn’t be cuts under a Conservative government. What he was trying to do was to get Brown to admit that the entire 10% line was nonsense and that the government’s own figures inevitably lead to lower spending on all areas excluding debt interest and social security (or “the costs of social failure” as he, himself, put it previously).
Once Brown has to hold his hands up and say this is the case THEN the discussion can move on to how far to cut and which areas to cut.
This is a case of fighting one battle at a time whilst keeping a clear strategic goal of moving the debate positively onto how reining in public spending is what the country needs.
78 - However, I also think it unticks it for certain people who think “more money to bloody Johnny foreigner, look after our own first”, and those voices were strongly heard with the BNP vote a few weeks ago.
What also need investigating further is more of Gordo funny money schemes that go to funding quite a lot of Labour Oveseas Aid commitments.
A consequence of cuts on the London Underground??
A fresh row over safety on London Underground flared today when union leaders warned of “potentially disastrous” risks over a £60 million cut in maintenance.
The Rail Maritime and Transport union said senior managers revealed the cuts, on the lines formerly maintained by collapsed company Metronet, during a meeting with Tube unions.
London Underground (LU) rejected the allegations, saying there was “no truth” in claims that safety standards on former Metronet lines had been reduced.
The RMT said the £60 million cuts will slash £26.1 million from track and signals, £18.9 million from fleet and trains and £18.5 million from stations on the former Metronet lines.
General secretary Bob Crow said: “Only last week Tube bosses were telling us during our strike that they could slash budgets and axe jobs without hitting services. This latest package of £60 million cuts nails those claims as a bare-faced lie.
“These are real cuts that will hit track, signals, trains and stations maintenance as well as putting yet more Tube staff jobs on the line. The consequences of these kind of cuts on the Underground could be potentially disastrous.
“Londoners need to wake up to what’s going on with the financial crisis on the Underground. These cuts are just the start and if we don’t stand up and fight together, there will be much more to come as the scale of the funding gap from the collapse of Metronet blows a massive hole in budgets across the Tube network.”
85. There are a lot of stations that are presently undergoing refurbishment that look just the same as they did a year ago (eg. Mile End).
82 cont - More specifically, I think Brown realises this - in so far as anything actually makes its way into this thick skull.
Brown remains a hugely political animal and his instinct tells him that once Labour admit to cuts being possible - remembering that previously he has gone on and on about how even a flat-lining in public spending would lead to carnage in the public sector and job cuts left, right and centre - then the debate will not be about whether or not to cut but about how far and how soon to cut.
For this reason alone, Brown has to stand there like some modern day Canute professing to be able to hold back the tide of truth. It makes him look like a total berk and isolates him from everyone.
That gives the Conservatives a double edged sword as the public know they are right about the fiscal sobriety that is needed AND the PM is seen to be a deluded liar. Win - Win.
83. Personally i am not against overseas development but i object to sending money to countries where they have nuclear weapons programs/space programs or neglect the people and sell on the food to other countries programs! IMO India, China and Pakistan should get no aid at all! Maybe they are poor countries but they also channel huge amounts of money into arms. Then again you could argue that we benifit as suppliers of military hardware! Tough one really! I suppose it is a Taboo subject that Arms are linked to overeas development. I do not think that in China that is the case though!
The folk i feel sorry for are in Africa or middle east who are neglected from aid programs because of poor goverment or lack of strategic importance.
84 - maybe Bob Crow’s highly paid union colleages could take a wage cut to help pay the bills?
80 - If you are prepared to say you believe that the non doms will fund Osbornes plans you’ll be the first Tory on here to dod so.
PS.Repeating “smear” in every single post makes as much sense as calling people fascists or neo cons when you don’t know what either means.
It devalues the word.
We’ve had three threads of tax and spend discussion.
I put it to you that neither Brown nor Osborne are being honest.
Thats not a “smear”
Now stop it.
64. Aidan - I’m saying this from memory - need to check in Peter Taylor’s book - but it was Sunny Jim Callaghan in his capacity as Home Secretary. re. banning the Derry Apprentice Boys’ march just as the troubles in NI were flaring up.
“I’m a libertarian. I don’t believe in banning things.”
87 - Not just poor government, corrupt governance at all levels!
89.
Tim or desperate Tim as you should now be called! 
I refer you to Mr Osbornes piece in the Times a few days ago where he honestly set out why Cuts will happen! 
re 14 so that’s why he’s been missing from HIGNFY for such a long time - messing around with diamond formations
Labour’s spending plans are there in black and white for all to see. The Tories, however, seem to be defending their 10% cuts on the basis that this is more or less the same as Labour. by james June 17th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Having seen this comment now I know why the country I love is going straight down the pan. When are you Labour people going to wake up?
You failed the last time and you have failed this time. You should be in prison for your crimes against this country not on a blog.
87 That rather depends on how the budget is spent. Very often it goes directly to Community Based Organisations, for instance, bypassing governments. And we’re not necessarily talking sacks of rice etc that can be pinched and sold on by armies, we could be talking about DfID offices in country spending money directly on projects, or organisations like VSO sending skilled professionals to work alongside beneficiaries leaving sustainable improvements.
91. Yes, many of these countries have shocking levels of corruption. I noticed on Newsnight watching something by (Mason) a reporter in China and the levels of kick backetc were quite amazing! I dont think China is the worst place and some African countries must be an utter nightmare!
One of my thoughts with Africa is they could be potentially a huge benificiary of Green technology - Just imagine the amount of Solar enegy they could capture in for what all intense and purposes is unproductive land.
89
Tim You are dissembling
You said
0 - Didn’t think so.
It seems no one believes Osborne ABOUT ANYTHING (my capitals).
His forecasts and his tax plans are the work of Nadines Narnia project.
by tim June 17th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
You then try and alter what you said.
Your statement is untruthful
Grow up.
When Polly Toynbee and the Spectator agree on something, there is a fair chance that they might be right.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/16/labour-fiscal-cuts-tories
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3702913/what-a-ballsup.thtml
Oddly, David Cameron echoed some of these criticisms today: it is not the need to cut that is destroying Labour here, it is the dishonest approach that it is taking. You would have thought the correct approach would be reasonably obvious. Evidently not.
*** Betting Post ***I have e-mailed Paddy Power to ask whether they will now settle the following two bets:
1) 20/05/2009 Brown Approval Rating Under 30%
The latest YouGov poll has only 23% of respondents answer ‘Well’ or ‘Very Well’ .
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ST-toplines_JUNE09.pdf
2) 17/04/2009 Will Jacqui Smith still be Home Secretary at the next General Election?
We’ll see what they say.
re 74 Nick P anthrax is easily treated.
From Iain Dale
“A source tells me that BBC’s Question Time programme has asked all 22 Cabinet Ministers if they would appear on the programme this week. Every single one refused. So we will be treated to the views of Lord Falconer instead.”
89 - Tim, the important thing regarding your constant harping on about this is that it doesn’t matter.
Seriously. Just think for once.
The estimated “cost” to increase IHT allowances and adjust stamp duty is £3.5bn or just over 1/2% of total public spending in 2009.
Any individual, company or government which cannot find that percentage of spending free within ten minutes of sitting down to think about it is in serious trouble. It’s the equivalent of someone doing without a packet of fags a week. It is, in the purest sense, trivial.
So I suggest you move along and find a better topic to entertain yourself and give us all a break.
96 My other half worked in China a lot back in the late 90s and was stunned at the level of backhanders/corruption to win [hi-tech] deals.
It was flagrant and this was just at the start of the change of economic psychology there.
DEAR HERD.
YOU’RE ALL OFFICIALLY YELLOW CARDED FOR SYSTEMATICALLY ENGAGING TIM.
Don’t make me come over there.
101 Would love to see how Mandy coped with a hostile QT crowd.
95. This is the problem - I am aware of friends of the family who work in civil construction in african countires provided by the UK government who do leave legacy improvements that help growth. Problem i see is western ideals transposed onto cultures who do not want the western society values/way of life! A mate of mine married a girl from Africa and her folks lived in mud huts! They actually preffered it to modern housing (They had stayed in relatives houses in nearby cities or been over here).
105. I think its a deliberate tactic - Faulkers is so removed from the govt that a fair % of those watching will not equate him to Gordon Browns Labour party.
Nothing new for Brown mind you - he’s run away from QT for over 20 years.
105 - When was the last time Mandy did QT? Anybody know?
108. In his moustache days before he resigned in disgrace the first time ?
“FOR SYSTEMATICALLY ENGAGING TIM”
Out gunned, out classed, refuted and rebutted maybe.
but not engaged…
Norwich North writ this week?
109 - When I started reading about his moustache days, I was getting worried about potential legal action for a moment there, then I was somewhat revealed to see you went on the solid ground of Mandy’s false mortgage claims (a crime is it not?).
96 Martin Day. Perhaps not what you were quite thinking of but in Sierra leone, for instance, there are a number of projects including solar powered IT training colleges; low energy solar powered health records systems and even a $10m solar powered maternity unit
87 - But do you think international aid actually crowds out investment by the particular national government?
If so, I can see your point in mentioning things like military expenditure by the larger states (though I strongly suspect as a proportion of GDP the spending of places like India is much lower than African states - though it’s big in absolute terms). But if not, then surely the question is whether the mechanisms are in place to translate aid into real improvements on the ground which may well be true in India but unfortunately it may not be in some spectacularly corrupt and/or war-torn areas.
LabourList unleashes deadly attack of epic proportions on Cameron, can he survive?
http://www.labourlist.org/camerons_impersonation_german_guard_national_embarrass
110
spot on, refuting and rebuttal is essential. Tim is NEVER engaging, he just smears.
111. I wondered whether they (Labour) were going to do the Glasgow one first as it is the best chance of a hold and then say that the Norwich one, which must be a loss is to do with expenses. If they lose the Glasgow one they are F*cked anyway! If they hold them at the same time, Labour will be the one stretched as the Tories are not second placed in Glasgow! So to me they will do Martins seat first then Gibson or at the same time. I cannot see any reason why an advantage would be brought from the same time compared to single contests? Unless they were sure of a Glasgow win.
84
I would take anything Bob Crow says with a huge pinch of salt. With regards to the tube, small fortunes are being spent doing up the stations, there is no reason why this couldn’t be scaled back by say 20% a year in a time of fiscal deficits.
Yes we all want lovely new tiles, but refurbishing stations when you can only work for 3 hours a night is a tad expensive.
Perhaps TFL need to bite the bullet and close the odd station for a month to get the work done quicker (and cheaper).
102 - If the point is honesty, then Osbornes position is relevant.
If its to do with scale, then Osbornes forecasts are the worst economic forecasts of the recession and as the author of them should not be allowed anywhere near power.
(you’ll maybe have noticed that Philip Hammond odds to be next chancellor have halved in the last week)
When it comes to Overseas Development, I would much rather we cut that spending all together.
The total spend on ODA was £6.8bn in 2008. £6.8 BILLION pounds.
For all tim’s constant harping on the cost or not of IHT and Stamp Duty changes proposed by the Conservatives, we spend double that every year on people other than UK taxpayers and residents.
There’s something wrong about that.
If - and it’s a big if - there is a justification of overseas aid, we need to see some benefit to the UK for it. Either in future business improvement or in using development projects to help train the UK unemployed at the same time.
106 Well there are often local solutions that are much more appropriate. If you go to the DfID website you’ll see it’s all about fighting poverty of one sort or another. Whether somebody is living in a mud hut, a tin shack or something that you or I may feel more comfortable in is irrelevant if they are too poor to feed themselves or their families.
119
Tim, you know nothing about honesty, your posts make that clear.
115.The comments thread is a hoot.
115
Brilliant. First time I’ve seen it, many thanks to Labourlist as I’m now utterly confident that ID Cards are finshed.
New Labour - Vere are your papers.
113. NTN, Yes those are good things!
Africa could use solar power resources for many things like solar desalination plants etc. Even air conditioning provides water! I suppose the capital cost is the problem!
Bloodyhell Michael Martin reminds me of kids reading at school! He was just on the BBC! Painful! Nearly as painful as the unemployment figures!
It was very bust today at the job centre as well!
Answer to thread. No.
Not for now at any rate. I supect Labour will get some play out of it. But it is a short term strategy and it will cost them in the medium/long term for two reasons:
1. Their arguments are simple and catchy but do not sustain examination. Many parts of the press have been dying to have this argument and are going to enjoy taking it up. This will mean Labour lose the economy AND the trust argument a few weeks/months down the line.
2. It will play well-ish short term, capping the Tories poll ratings, giving hope to Labour and helping to keep Brown in place. It will also sink anyone who joins in the chorus, killing off potential opponents. This might explain why no Cabinet ministers are available for QT]. If ministers don’t come out and support the line, it is sunk anyway.
124. Very amusing comment on there, “Come on! Where’s your sense of humour? Are you a German?” PC we ain’t.
115 - I love it when lefties get all pious.
115 You have just made me do a bad bad thing. I had never been to Labourlist. Now I have.
Was that what all the fuss was about? Sad.
120 Isn’t it also rather wrong that there are people trying to survive on less than $2 a day; that people are prevented by policies of governments in the west from selling their produce at fair rates; we manage to take rather a lot from many countries without putting a great deal back.
This is one of the things that drives me crazy about how we recognise poverty in the UK. We see it as relative poverty. How much less well off people are compared with the average. The difference between that relative poverty in the UK and absolute poverty in the developing world is huge.
councilhousetory
I was thinking of doing some music with a sample of Cameron saying
“Vere are your papers”
It would be something like the track “19″, Maybe i will mix it for PB! I will sample Cameron saying “Vere are your papers”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSGvqjVHik8
Mind you Gordon just keeps pissing on and on!
Adam Boulton: 6am tomorrow the redacted expenses are going on the internet.
Anyone know the URL?
106
Nothing wrong with mud huts. lived in one for a week: quite cool…(as in temperature sie).
Lot more eco friendly than concrete…
Labourlist has definitely improved since it dropped the pilot. Might our host think about reinstating it to the blogroll?
129, sorry Sally. Didn’t mean to corrupt you
132 - I tell you what will be interesting is I wonder how much money MP’s have claimed for stationary (in particular black marker pens) in the past month or so? I’m surprised there isn’t a nationwide shortage, with the amount I am sure has been used!
The actual accent wasn’t offensive, but ‘who wants to live in a country like that’ came across pretty badly…
Doubt it will harm him in the long run though.
133 Madasafish Exactly - nice local solution to a problem.
When some multinational fixes the prices for bananas that you grow there doesn’t to tend to be a local solution.
115 That has to be the most pathetic studenty PC crap that I’ve read in ages, Draperpolitik is alive and well on that site.
136 - That and toilet paper!
134, there are more articles actually worth reading, but occasionally, as per 115, it does turn up comedy gold still.
128 Humour is a devastating weapon - when used against a politician. Sadly for Labour, no-one is laughing at Cameron.
Gordon “Obama Beach” Brown had them rolling in the aisles on HIGNFY, though.
Lefties. Just point and laugh at them. They have no response (other than something that will make you laugh all the harder!)
141 - Do you mean by “more”, an increase from 0 to 1 a week / month?
The most important question raised on this thread is What do the people who sit next to Martin Day at the job centre think he smells like ?
124.
We seem to have fallen in love with hyperbole. Cameron makes a simple quip about id cards; outrage, it’s an international incident.
There are 515,000 people in this country who have been out of work for over a year. _That’s_ a tragedy.
There are 605,000 more people out of work than this time last year. _That’s_ a crying shame.
There are 230,000 fewer vacancies in the economy than a year ago. That’s a great pity.
Note to the politicians. It’s the economy stupids.
117, Martin Day
From Labour’s perspective there seems some advantage from getting them done on same day and soon:-
If they lose them both get they get the bad news out of the way quickly and some time before Conference.
If they lose one then some relatively good news to offset against the bad news and overall impact less.
130 - I agree wholeheartedly with your comment on being prevented from selling their produce at fair rates. That one, unfortunately, you have to take up with EU to bring about a resolution. The combination of CAP and tariffs are a disgrace and should be ended immediately. That would be the single greatest benefit we could give to such nations and their populations.
I also agree with you on the relative/absolute poverty issue and wish we could take those who moan about their relative position and put them in another’s shoes for a day. In some ways, my idea to use UK unemployed for overseas aid projects might achieve this as those on benefits here could see what absolute poverty really means.
However, I still think that overseas aid in general is wrong. A combination of free trade and technological advance is the best way towards improvements in living standards worldwide..
144 Excuse me? What an unpleasant remark Mr Senior. And what has that got to do with the price of biscuits?
131 MartinDay
Try Kraftwerk ‘The Robots’. Not only are they German, but the lyrics (we are the robots) can be perfectly replaced with ‘vere are your papers’.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXa9tXcMhXQ
131 - You could do your own Brownfall-style mashup based on the Dad’s Army sketch when a German (played by David Cameron) takes them hostage:
Gordon Brown as Captain Mainwaring
Peter Mandelson as Sergeant Wilson
Ed Balls as Jones
David Miliband as Pike
Jack Straw as the Vicar
Jon Cruddas as the Verger
James Purnell as Frazier
Go on, you know you want to…
142 - What like,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBXj5l6ShpA&feature=related
TWIRLY TWIRLY TWIRL
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2009/06/two-leaders-react-to-martins-parting-shot.html
This is interesting.
It does seem ridiculous that Brown and Labour are playing this cuts thing in the ay they are.
Cuts are an abstract thing and the challenge for Labour here is to show that there are choices as to where cuts should be made. For example - and I know this is guaranteed to get the Tory herd to cry foul and smear etc - should cutting IHT, which only affects the wealthiest in this country, be a priority? By getting rid of it, you have to cut more than you otherwise would. It is th eone cast-iron guarante we have from Cameron & Co, and a wily and politically aware PM would be making hay with it. Brown is neither of these things though.
More generally, the challenge for the Tories when they come into power is that everyone supports cutting other people’s hospitals, schools etc, the problem is that when it starts happening to you that extra 2 pence in income tax becomes more acceptable. Last time the Tories got round this problem by abandoning great swathes of the non-Tory voting UK. I wonder if that will be the approach this time as well.
Who’s lying, who’s telling the truth, and who’s telling “10% of the truth”?
PMQs again featured a spat between the PM and Opposition Leader over their plans for the nation’s finances post-2011 - with each side tossing statistics over the despatch box as if incendiary devices.
Mr Brown alleges that Tory cuts will disastrously affect spending on public services. He pointedly asked Mr Cameron how many teachers, nurses and police officers would be lost thanks to the 10% cut to departmental budgets that Andrew Lansley suggested would have to take place if the Tories formed a government.
The PM has a point, and one conceded by the Opposition, although they have signalled that health, education and international development spending will be protected.
But Mr Cameron counters that, although there is a real terms increase in spending, under Mr Brown’s plans departmental budgets will be at risk because the government has factored out increased welfare spending.
Think of it this way. Imagine a bucket filled with all the cash the government has to spend, a bucket whose contents increase in line with inflation.
Out of that one bucket comes all the money to be spent on the various government departments - but also the money that goes to welfare.
We’re in a recession, and unemployment is expected to rise for some time to come. So if the amount spent on unemployment benefits (and the like) increases, there is less in the bucket to spend on government departments.
Which would mean cuts to departmental budgets. Wouldn’t it?
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:e8f7326e-7d45-4552-9883-76a1687b1e86
144. I had some nice aftershave on Mark!
Do you like aftershave Mark
116 - In other words, he raises points you find uncomfortable and difficult to argue against. Just because you do not like something someone says, it does not make it a smear.
115- Has it really become taboo in Labour circles to mock the Nazis? Where have you gone, Benny Hill?
155 I mostly use Isse Miyake - I would guess yours is Old Spice .
154 fails as analysis because it doesn’t take note that the Tories’ 10% figure is also based on the “bucket” analogy.
147 Id I think we’re quite close on much of this. As long as the unemployed have some sort of usable and not locally available skill it seems sensible enough. The problem comes when we start shifting in our unemployed when local skills are available and people need to earn a living there.
Much of what International Development is spent on is towards technological advance - see the comments about solar powered computer systems above for instance. There’s also a huge amount spent on access to markets and suistainable livelihoods - eaxcatly to counter the trade restrictions and tarrifs you talk about. They are so immoral IMHO.
Now if Cameron could crack that problem I suspect there would be some significant changes in standards of living. But lets not pull the ladder away, until we’ve removed the barriers we place that stop people climbing to the top of it.
Just had a look at the DfID website. There’s some really interesting stuff on there. Maybe wothwhile taking a look.
147 - I bow to nobody in my support for free trade, but you do appear to think of it as a panacea. Although it is almost unarguable (though some try) that free trade has net benefits, it makes a lot of individuals worse off - and that isn’t limited to bad guys and rich guys.
158- I like to use bacon grease… guarantees plenty of space on the subway for my daily commutes.
149. councilhousetory
Yes i will look at that tommorow! I will mix my laughter (More amusing than Sid James so i am told or the bloke from predidtator when he talks about the echo!!!) but after a few beers it will have to wait! The video made me laugh though! Vere are your papers!
157 - The inner cabinet meeting aka Dads Army!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ndvGw5sM6c
153.
That seems sensible - with limited public money, there are always opportunity costs. Is cutting IHT more important than (for example) funding the Navy’s aircraft carriers (from memory, they’re similar in cost).
I think shifting the debate onto “what should be cut” and “what is the relationship between citizen and government” would be powerful for all parties. At least we’d be slightly better able to discern the values and priorities of the various parties.
The education versus health is particularly interesting; the swing back in fertility has the potential to be a very nasty medium term issue for whichever party is incumbent. Balancing those demands against an increasingly elderly, narcissistic and demanding populace is going to require nifty political skills.
162 S&S
I believe the brand you refer to is Porko Rabane.
163
That will be class, look forward to the video.
Vere are your papers
*** BETTING POST ***There is a growing feeling that the “Stop Bercow” campaign will win the day on Monday.
The sense is that John Bercow might very well top the ballot on the first round of the Speakership contest but then not pile on many votes.
Sir George Young and Margaret Beckett could be vying for second place. MPs of both Labour and Tory persuasion who don’t want John Bercow might then rally round someone no one had thought of as Speaker in a contest most thought was the Tories’ turn: Margaret Beckett.
In a hustings this morning Margaret Beckett mentioned Selwyn Lloyd, who was Speaker in 1974 when she first arrived in the House as an MP.
Mrs Beckett said seeing a Speaker in action in a time of minority government taught her what might be needed if the next general election failed to give anyone a majority.
I found Brownite Labour, Blairite rebels, Tory frontbench and backbench MPs today who were more than ready to back Margaret Beckett. This was originally billed as a contest that would focus on bringing in someone with a clean sheet on expenses and someone who would challenge the executive. But the determination of many to stop John Bercow is changing the focus of this campaign.
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2009/06/17/will-stopping-bercow-win-it-for-beckett/
165 - That seems sensible - with limited public money, there are always opportunity costs. Is cutting IHT more important than (for example) funding the Navy’s aircraft carriers (from memory, they’re similar in cost)
Correct.
The weakness of the Conservative position is that they believe the IHT cut to be more important that any other tax and spend change.
158. Mark Senior,
Incorrect Mark - I piss in a bottle, live it for two years and splash it on! The feromons drive the woman crazy!
Only kidding! Most people say i smell sweet - indeed it is only women who comment and they say i am sweet too!
Rather than having a pop at each other though you must agree with me that society is let down by Gordon Brown? I drove past a prostitute in the red light district in huddersfield (It is on the direct route home and i have never paid for sex nor never will!) crikey, what is being done for folks like that by Labour, Help off drugs, help in relocation to a safe environment? Nothing!
Labour have failed and it saddens me such folk fall by the way side as i look on in disbelief!
153
Southern Observer
Quite.
No-one likes cuts in their own area.
Time to offer voters a choice: what services they want to cut…
171, suggestion: scrap the £10m Union modernisation fund
119.Tim, I can think of a number of people whose forecasts regarding the recession were worse than George Osborne’s. For starters, how about those who forecasted that due to the strength of the economy there would not be a recession. They were further out than Osborne could ever be. Shall we name names and provide quotes from these mystics?
156 - tim’s positions are never difficult to argue against, SO. He merely never knows when he’s beaten so repeats the same boring, tired line over and over.
Tim would have more credibility if, just once, he admitted that he had no point and moved on to something different instead of making the same non-point over and over again.
160 - Good point on skill-sets overseas. I was actually thinking of it the other way around - using skilled people whether from UK or the country receiving the aid to train unskilled UK unemployed.
I would support the spending of those monies on technological systems to advance living standards in developing countries if the technology was coming from UK companies - so we get to help the less well off whilst employing UK labour and enterprise.
161 - Congratulations, you’ve just described how capitalism works. Some people benefit more than others. It’s how it happens. Fortunately, it still tends to result in a net improvement on any position that involves excessive government intervention and socialism. I’m not describing it as a panacea merely saying that it would, without negative outside influence (such as corruption and lack of education in underdeveloped/developing states - and, on the course we’re currently heading in the UK as well), bring about an improvement on the current state of affairs.
171 And perhaps an opportunity for a mixed system in things like drug prescribing. If there are two drugs for a similar condition one of which works well in most people but less well for me and a newer one that would suit my circumstances better but costs more, why sholdn’t I be able to make up the difference from my own pocket. I’ve had personal experience of this and had to plough on with the less effective medication until the GP felt he could finally make a case for the newer stuff. I could have had more appropriate treatment and could, in effect have saved the NHS money as I’d have been topping up into the future rather than them eventually picking up the inflated cost. Just another example of a monopolistic approach to things that needs tackling.
174 - “Some people benefit more than others”.
A lot of people don’t benefit at all… and I speak as somebody who considers himself to be a capitalist and a free trader. So whilst I see free trade as a major positive, I can’t see how it could possibly be a replacement for aid as you suggest (except over the very long term as the need for aid potentially reduces).
169 - That’s just not true is it, tim.
The position on the IHT cut is clear. It is a commitment to be met when the circumstances are reasonable for it.
The current financial mess being made by Brown means that it is not the first priority and that other issues will have to be addressed first.
You and SO miss the point that Brown cannot and will not ever admit that cuts have to come as it is his ONLY selling point and he has spent so long claiming that anything other than continued increases in public spending whether or not it is funded by tax or debt leads immediately to total devastation in public services.
As soon as he admits anything else then he has no place and no role for his record and perpetual refrain for the last 12 years has been a lie.
Binley to lose the Tory whip?
Quite right too
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/06/binley-to-lose-the-tory-whip/
174 About your response to 161. It’s remarkable that people struggling to feed their families in the developing world seem to do rather well when given access to markets or some money from micro-credit schemes. Especially, incidentally, when they are women!
As an aside, a great bit of use of of development money I heard about recently was providing mobile phones to HIV+ women in, IIRC, Namibia and Mozambique. They have to collect them in the morning and return them in the evenings but during the day the rent them to people in the community to make phone calls and thus make a profit which allows them to feed themselves and their families three square meals a day. This means that their ARV medication can be effective rather than positively harmful.
What with that and the inhabitant of No 10, I’m thinking of investing in Nokia shares.
177 - No.
Its a commitment to be met in the first term, no matter what other cuts are necessary.
Thats why it is a big political mistake.
178 - Binley.
Not one of Daves mates.
Gone.
178, good.
179 - The first term is a long time relatively speaking. Other cuts will be made first and will be more important. Re-evaluation of the spending needs for the benefit of the country will come first.
Once again, however, you miss the key point which I made earlier which is that the amount involved is trivial in the scheme of the cuts that otherwise need to be made.
You’re wrong - again - move on.
176 people struggling to feed their families in the developing world seem to do remarkably well when given access to markets and incrediby small amounts of micro-credit. Especially if they are women!
test
Binley was arrogant on 5Live today.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00l57bf
1.36
181 - it is a clear expression of what the Conservatives priority is, no matter how bad the public finances.
But you are right, lets move on now.
178 - Very foolish of Binley to say he wouldn’t repay it if Cameron ordered him to do so. He is effectively forcing Cameron to do exactly that, or else appear weak. He really has dug his own grave there. Should have either repaid or issued a flat denial of wrongdoing and shut up about everything else.
Sorry if I’m mulltiple-posting - I need some of that solar powered computer technology here in Clapham I think.
176 People in the developing world struggling to feed their families seem to do remarkable well when given access to markets and micro-credit help. Especially if they are women!
185, unconfirmed reports that Brown has attacked Binley’s conduct and asked him to join the Cabinet.
184. Only if you are too stupid to understand the word priority.
Oh…
Faisal Islam on C4 News is gently tearing Gordon’s figures to pieces.
187 - one of my former work collegues when pressed to do something always said, ‘your priority may be not my priority’.
“Anne Widdecombe for Speaker” appears all over the net at the mo, from CIF to the BBC her following amongst left and right is quite surprising.
I know she has stated she will stand down at the next GE due to ‘retirement commitments’ but can anyone enlighten me as to what they are?
(no smutty suggestion, ‘she’ would not approve)
189 I see husband has been posting - i need the edit button back 189 should have read:
one of my former work collegues when pressed to do something always said, ‘your priority may not be my priority’.
tim, if you were watching the spectacle here yesterday, you really have achieved major celebrity status at PB. I’m pretty sure that people were talking as much about you when you were gone as they do when you’re here. It had become quite embarrassing, IMHO. In a way, you’re PB’s Amy Winehouse. Chapeau!
190 - maybe an easy way to say ‘I am knackered and need to put my feet up’
192 - I shall check into the Priory, or should that be the Priority clinic.
For the Liberal Democrats, Vince Cable said it was a “reminder of where the Tories’ priorities really lie” while his party emphasised that any cuts should be concentrated on less wealthy people.
193 – Marcia, that has such a ring of sense about it that you could be right.
Were you jibbing?
195 - explain to this old foggie what ‘jibbing’ means?
177
Id, I think you have invented a new internet acronym
TJNTIIT.
196 - Aving a laugh!
I see Gordo showing respect as usual,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8105364.stm
Watch for 19 secs in..
198 - of course - maybe she has been asked to do some Radio or TV work.
** new thread **
Gordon Brown claims that there will be no decrease in “Investment” as asset sales of £16bn will fill the gap and had a statement issued post PMQs (so obviously felt he’d lost the argument there).
Problem is that Darling announced those asset sales in the Budget and the spending figures then resulting were AFTER those sales were the ones published. Balls & Brown are in a fix, they leapt at the opportunity Lansley provided as a political tactic that gave them a “story” but neglected the fact that Lansley was actually using their Budget figures as briefed by the IFS.
for those who want the background from the IFS and assumptions made:
http://www.ifs.org.uk/projects/304
123 - I liked this comment (from that thread)
So just to be clear here….
Putting on a funny accent and imitating a Nazi policeman while ridiculing our impending police state is embarrassing.
But actually introducing a police state, albeit with English accents, isn’t.
You lot really do live in a stupidity bubble.
You’re sooooooo toast at the next election.
LOL Sky reporting governor of BOE appears to be backing David Cameron’s argument about cuts…..
Poor old Gordo ROFLMAO
Kevin McGuire from the Mirror currently on the Daily Politics describing ‘heavy whipping operation’ in favour of Margaret Beckett and that only ‘independent minded’ Labour MPs (how many of those are there??) will vote for Bercow. He strongly tips Beckett.
Survey Date CON LAB LDEM Con Lead (%)
ComRes/IoS 14 May 40 21 18 19
ComRes/IoS 19 March 41 30 17 11
ComRes/Ios 12 Feb 41 25 22 16
ComRes/IoS 15 Jan 41 32 15 9