ICM - Tories heading for solid victory in Norwich North
June 26th, 2009
CON 34 (+1) LAB 30 (-15) LD 15 (-1) GRN 14 (+11)
Is the first poll just in line with expectations?
The above ICM poll with variations on what happened at the last election was commissioned by Norwich’s University & College Union and has just been published. The sample was just 500 which means a much higher margin of error must be applied.
As can be seen the figures are broadly in line with current national polling and, indeed, it would be a huge surprise if the Tories failed to take the seat from Labour with a thumping majority.
The Tory margin in the survey would have been double the 4% but for ICM’s standard practice of realloctating half of those who say they will vote but don’t know which way in accordance with what they did at the last general election.
Clearly the campaign has not started and there is not that much awareness in the seat that a by election will soon by happening. A total of 18% of local voters had no idea that there was an election coming up.
No doubt the main contenders are working on the postal votes right now. Let us hope that afterwards the marked register for this election is not “lost” - something that happened after the last by election at Glenrothes last November.
Mike Smithson
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FPT - Good news about my appeal. My ‘consultation’ period has been extended to end of July. I have given them food for thought I reckon.
sorry O/T
the only by-election held yesterday - SNP hold Sidlaw Monifieth
SNP 2846
Con 698
LD 439
turnout just under 29%
I have been working in the seat since 6 June. Feet now up. This seat is split half Dundee East and West for Westminster.
by marcia June 26th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
1. Good News!
No pun intended!
Labour were always doomed in Norwich North after recent revelations, the LDs are doing that badly they dont even qualify for the Yellow Taxi!
I don’t think a win in Norwich North is going to be too big a cause for CCHQ champagne. If the Tories DIDN’T win it would be a disaster.
Interesting time for a by-election, a strong “others” dustbin for protest votes, which may bring people disaffected by MPs after Expensesgate out to vote Green rather than see them sit on their hands.
Tories should still win - candidate seems good, intelligent, normal.
Having said that, the writ hasn’t been moved yet has it? Any sign?
Hold on! It’s not a done deal that the Conservatives will win Norwich North. As well as the margin-of-error factor to consider, there is also the possibility that the Green vote will get squeezed.
I think that a fair few voters whose first preference would be to vote for the Green Party may lend their vote to Labour to keep the Tories out. (And would be equally happy to lend their votes to the LibDems, if they seemed to be the “Stop-Tory” party)
Mike - cheers for the new thread.
“No doubt the main contenders are working on the postal votes right now. Let us hope that afterwards the marked register for this election is not “lost” ”
Lol. I like the little dig there!
At the risk of being branded a ‘bot’, I am genuinely surprised the Tories are only 4% ahead here.
From UK Polling Report: “The sample size was only 500 (and once don’t knows, unlikely to votes and so on were taken out, the voting figures were based on only 294″
Hmm. Sounds like there could be a huge MoE on this.
Worth noting that some of the early C&N polls had a small Tory lead too - only around 4% I recall? - but there is a big difference in Norwich: The Greens.
Clearly all the Labour floaters won’t coalesce around just the Tories as they did in C&N, a large number will go to the Greens who have a very big presence in Norwich.
Once again, a by-election in an “atypical” seat.
A 1% Tory increase and an 8% swing is pathetic. I’d be inclined to disbelieve the poll for the time being…
Labour’s only (slim) hope is to pick someone very high profile and hold the by-election very very soon thereafter. I read somewhere that it could be in the middle of July.
The ‘Lost Register of Glenrothes’ keeps on making its absence felt -except in the MSM.
MOE is 4%, not too bad….
2 - the figures on the vote 2007 site have been amended
SNP 2486 68.7%
Con 698 19.2
LD 439 12.1
http://www.guideandgazette.co.uk/news/SNP-WINS-BIG-IN-MONIFIETH.5406052.jp
More Green shoots
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8120647.stm
House prices in England and Wales fell slightly again last month, according to figures from the Land Registry.
The average house price in May fell by 0.2% from April to £152,497, while the annual rate of decline was 15.9%.
1 David good news indeed and I hope the ultimate outcome is the best you can hope for.
As an outsider who has only happy memories of my visits to Norwich (sorry didnt mean Norfolk on last thread) I am genuinely interested in what local PBers who know the local scene tell us from now until polling day, whenever Labour has the courage to call it.
Separately there doesn’t seem to be any more suggestion of Jim Devine resigning in Livingston and forcing a by-election so perhaps he has been visited by Labour party reps. His seat was pretty much at the top of the SNP target list for the GE anyway.
“18% of local voters had no idea that there was an election coming up”
That’s a surprisingly small number if it’s to be believed (how many people didn’t know but wouldn’t admit it). The implication is that 82% do know of it, even if only a little more than half of them will vote in the end.
Tend to disagree with Disraeli about the Green vote. They might be prepared to lend their vote to the Lib Dems but I can’t see them lending it to Labour. Many will be disenchanted Labour voters in the first place and as it’s not a general election where they could be contributing to a Tory majority, the ‘keep the Tories out’ message is less potent.
6 - Not totally done but the 1/5 odds on offer from both Ladbrokes and Hills looks if anything slightly generous to me.
14. Marcia, a seat in Dundee, and Labour can’t even field a candidate!?!? Are things really so bad for Labour in Scotland?
Seems much less good for the Tories than I would have expected - even if they got 38% it wouldn’t be triumph. Think of the thrashing that would have been dealt out to them in 1992-97 in a seat with a similar kind of majority.
8. Bot.
It will probably be solid in the end, but those poll figures look far from solid in themselves.
No doubt the Liberal Democrats think they will stitch up Norwich North with the Turkey Pluckers vote related to a ‘beautiful’ industry!
Alas for the LDs i dont think the Tirky Pluckers will chose to vote LD but stuff them! 
20. Steady on we haven’t seen the result yet.
If the Tories fail to win the seat comfortably now they are unlikely to hold it at the General Election - the boundary changes here heavily favour Labour.
23. What?
Brown promises £60Bn for climate change fund - from er…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8120432.stm
Prime Minister Gordon Brown wants to set up a £60bn annual fund to help poor countries deal with climate change.
He hopes it will break the deadlock over who will pay developing nations to adapt to the changing climate and who will help them obtain clean technology.
16 - Mark, from what I have heard there will not be a by-election in Livingston as he would not get a pay-off if he stood as an Indpendent or just resigned. He will stay on until the GE and get a resettlement payment as I think the BBC Newsnight Scotland programme said he cannot afford not to stay on.
20. The BBC will certainly report it as both “disappointing” and an indication that the Tories are “not on course for victory” if the margin is anything less than 45%, the swing less than 12% and the majority less than C&N.
I think the Labour thrashing will be of a similar scale - if not worse - than the 1992-1997 Tory by-election losses, it’s just the vote won’t all go to the Conservatives.
O/T but has this been discussed? Not good news for Brown on the face of it with his persistent “tory cuts” mantra
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5638668/Three-quarters-of-Britons-say-cut-public-spending.html
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown wants to set up a £60bn annual fund to help poor countries deal with climate change.”
STOP SPENDING MY MONEY!
As the reassigned votes from the ‘don’t knows’ will have gone to the major parties I guess this underestimates the Green vote a little. I personally could see Labour votes going to the Greens rather than the other way around as the poll comes closer.
1 David, best wishes for your campaign!
Who is new poster “justin”?
Lower case first name only, remind us of any other posters?
Transparent bunker plant specifically to ramp Labour in Norwich N.
On ignore already.
31. It’s legacy time : “St Bruno : Nobel prizewinner for helping the poor (from your pocket) “
19 - the seat is in Angus Council not Dundee City but for Westminster is split between Dundee East and West. It is the area that surrounds Dundee and used to be in Dundee until the 1995 Council re-organisation.
34 You just show your ignorance - I have been posting here for 2 years!
Labour are doomed, DOOMED at the next election!
Gordon Brown = Neil Kinnock
34. Alternatively it could be the blairite faction of the government talking up the chance of holding it. Then when it is lost blaming Brown!
31
Er, Brown has calculated that at the conclusion of his current tranche of ‘economic policies’ the UK will be listed amongst those ‘poor countries’ and will therefore be elegible for a proportion of the £60bn.
Happy days are here again…
36. Thanks marcia. Still amazed at the lack of a candidate though!
34 - “Plant” or not, Justin at 25 makes a reasonable enough point. It is correct that the boundary changes in Norwich North favour Labour so the Tories probably do need to win with a fair majority to hold next year.
But in a sense, who cares (beyond Chloe Smith and the Norwich Tories)? Some boundary changes favour Labour, others the Tories. At the General Election this seat will be one of hundreds and not very relevant in the bigger scheme. But the by-election will make quite a big splash.
29. If the locals results are repeated, then Labour’s vote will be down by 26% points. No doubt that still won’t be ‘enough’, though
38. No, Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock!
Gordon Brown = Doomed to defeat!
37. We should call you “justin time” then (bet you’ve never heard that before eh?)
44. But Nick Clegg ain’t Labour !
41. Running out of masocists ?
27. If Brown wants to stop climate change he should pour funds into R&D of renewable energy. That’s the only way.
Emotionally, however, I’m sure this Robin Hood redistribution of monies from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries appeals to him much more.
The £60bn fund will achieve nothing towards cutting CO2.
Just to put a bit of context around Norwich North. It was created in 1950 and since has been a predominantly Labour seat. The only period when it was Conservative was between 1983 and 1997.
Consequently, whatever the size of the victory it would be yet another positive marker should the Conservatives win it.
“ICM’s standard practice of realloctating half of those who say they will vote but don’t know which way in accordance with what they did at the last general election.”
That may have helped the LDs stay ahead of the Greens. The reality is that the Greens will have pushed the LDs into 4th.
50. That’s perhaps why William Hill have Greens on 8/1 and Liberals on 20/1. I loved Nich Starling’s bizarre take on the situation.
http://www.twodoctors.org/2009/06/body-blow-in-norwich-north.html
50,if that is true and the lib dems do finish 4th,then mr clegg should start getting some stick,that would be fun.
46. Sunil Prasannan
Nick Clegg is a figure of Fun like Neil Kinnock! If i were Nick Clegg i would take being contrasted to Neil Kinnock as a complement because i rate Clegg less highly than Kinnock!
Both make my laugh until my sides hurt! Especially since Nick Clegg has recently turned up the volume and is experiencing deminishing returns for his party! Indeed worst than deminishing they are of collapse like Labour.
Just the excuse I need to repost the figures I extrapolated from the Locals:
Norwich N (old boundaries):
Con 39.93%
Lab 17.48%
LD 17.17%
Green 15.93%
UKIP 9.49%
Norwich N (new boundaries - next GE):
Con 36.59%
Lab 19.61%
LD 15.53%
Green 16.43%
UKIP 11.83%
Notes:
Small BNP vote ignored. The two wards that will be taken from this, Drayton and Taversham, the tories got over 50% of the vote. The Greens actually won two wards in the city, whilst overall, the four city seats saw Labour narrowly on top, followed by tories then Green. (300 votes separating Green in third and Labour first.)
In the six Broadland wards that will be voting in the By-election, the tories got more than double labour’s vote and tory+UKIP easily beat Lab+LD+Green
So for Labour (or the Greens/LDs) to win, they have to hope that UKIP again take 10% or more of the vote, whilst one of the Left parties hoovers up.
41 - they had a candidate for the seat but it was found at the last minute he or she lived in the Dundee City boundary and so not eligible. Labour actually put out leaflets at the beginning of the campaign asking people to vote Labour on June 25th.
51. Wherever the Lib Dems finish, it will be a success for them. And wherever the Tories finish, a failure, of course.
49 As someone who lives in the constituency the new boundaries will correspond almost exactly to those that existed from 1983 - 1997.Essentially the 1997 boundary changes will be reversed!
For everyone - not just snobs and anti-semites
http://order-order.com/2009/06/26/friday-caption-contest-my-little-pony-edition/
51.
I have heard that an Illiberal Democrat is standing in Sheffield Hallam called A_Nick Clegg:
http://illiberaldemocrats.blogspot.com/
Off topic.
Michael Jackson’s music is currently eight out of the top 25 MP3 albums on Amazon, the first 14 CDs on Amazon, and the first seven albums on iTunes.
Based on those numbers, it looks like the Greens have a bit of a chance. I know they are not very good at by-elections, but if there is a longish campaign and they get established as the main alternative to the Tories, then probably most Labour and Lib Dem voters would be more than happy to vote Green to beat the Tories.
For that to work probably requires relatively low profile Labour and Lib Dem campaigns - but both would probably rather Greens win than the Tories. Unlikely, but possibly worth a punt?
1, hurrah!
Er, what does that mean exactly?
Doubtlessly your threats of a space cannon strike worked well
59, premature death is certainly a good career move for Jacko.
56. Interesting point and worthwhile keeping in mind……
Will Mr Balls be the first Cabinet Minister named by Speaker Bercow?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/balls-accused-of-breaching-speakers-ruling-on-statements-1720411.html
Q: Which part topped the Norwich vote in the Euros?
A: The Greens with 24.86%.
further to my 63: Hat Tip Politics Home
61 Perhaps, Morris, like the legendary Hotblack Desiato, he intends to spend a year dead for tax reasons.
re 2 so SNP elected on the first count then?
58,plus our vince cable was to disorganised to pay his own bills on time,he received 19 reminders and warnings from utility firms and office equipment suppliers during 2005-6,his electricity and gas suppliers threatened to cut off his constituency office over non payments of bill,IT CARRIED ON THE FOLLOWING YEAR,LOL
60 - No. By-elections depend on people coming in from outside - Greens have a good little outfit in Norwich but will be swamped. And Labour and the Lib Dems would not want to see the Greens to beat the Tories (even if there was any prospect of it happening). The credibility to the Greens from getting one extra MP is far more damaging for Labour and the Lib Dems than the Tories winning a by-election that they really ought to win.
68. If Vince Cable had his gas cut off i am sure calamity Clegg could be called upon to fill the breach!
69, interesting to read thoughts on the Greens. I do wonder how they’ll fare, and it will perhaps be useful as a forerunner of a possible GE breakthrough for the Greens and other minor parties.
It’s no longer 1997 - now its “get Brown out”
48..give the poor soul the whisky bottle and revolver. truly a desperate individual in denial.
67, yes Chris, here is the Council’s website with the vote count.
http://www.angus.gov.uk/elections/monifiethsidlawbyelection/votes.pdf
64. But much of Norwich N is outside the city proper.
60
Indeed. The Greens performed strongly in all of the City wards and in four of the Broadland wards outpolled Labour. What they need to convey to the people of Norwich N is that a vote for the LDs is a wasted vote (preferably with the aid of barcharts) and that they are the only party that can beat the tories. One of Lab/LDs/Green is going to get squeezed, which will have big ramifications for the GE vote.
A strong performance by the Greens in the By-election could well see them win at the GE. IMO, they have to first eliminate the LDs at this by-election, then convey the idea to the constituents that only they can beat the tories at the GE. They might even take control of the council.
Further proof of the Tories being good monarchists with their strong approval for King:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3719713/shocking-remarks.thtml
Now, it’s critical Brown isn’t able to ruin the economy any more than he has, but I really hope the possible politicisation of the Bank of England is as temporary and minimal as possible. We live in extraordinary times and the Prime Lunatic clearly needs people to restrain his impulse to spend everything on anything, but this shouldn’t set a precedent.
49. The 1983 boundary changes were massive, converting a basically safe Labour seat into a safe-ish Tory one. The 1997 boundary changes increased the Tory advantage further (although they of course lost in the landslide that year.) The 1992 notional Tory majority was 2,270.
Gibson seems to have had something of a personal vote, in that the Tories did not claw back much ground 1997-2005.
60 Donpaskini
I think you are right. If an ‘anybody-but-the-main-Parties’ mood takes hold, the Greens could be in. There is also TC’s point that the Greens did outpoll all others locally in the Euros.
It’s not likely they will win but I reckon the 12/1 Shadsy is offering is generous. I have had £20 on it anyway.
70,Funny thing about cable not paying is bills on time,was that he campaigned for the govenment departments to pay their bills on time,tipical illiberals.
71 - I’m not sure it will be a great indicator. By-elections are very different to General Election campaigns and how the Greens do at the General will almost exclusively be dictated by whatever is happening on the ground in Brighton.
I should think both Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown would be delighted to match Neil Kinnock’s result in 92. Clegg particularly would be deified.
My guess is the Greens will struggle to do as well as the could in a by-election.
Labour knows how to exploit any slightly risky/unpopular manifesto elements in by-elections. The Green manifesto is about 50% composed of them.
Also don’t know now many students will be around…
79. Careful about the euros point, Peter, see my previous post at 75.
I think the Greens could come second, but winning looks a very tall order. The market we want is on Labour’s position - I fancy 4th at the right odds.
75. Indeed 9 (7 at the General Election) of the wards are in Broadlands division. To which end, Broadlands Euro election results (all caveats apply).
Con 31.5%
UKIP 22%
LD 14%
Green 10%
Labour 9%
BNP 5%
Other 8.5%
80. The LD should get their members to put money into a FIB Box to help pay back the money they owe the victims of the Michael Brown donations fraud! LD could raise a huge amount of money in days!
LD = Lies
Nich Starling described the 11% increase in the Green vote as “a blow for the Greens”. Extraordinary!
http://www.twodoctors.org/2009/06/body-blow-in-norwich-north.html
78 Let me guess: a Conservative gain in Norwich North will not rubbish “swingback” as it is sui generis?
An extraordinary poll and I am baffled as to why Labour can “dip” by 15 points.
Is Gordon Brown really that unpopular ??
Equally how the Green Party can gain 11 points.
This reminds me of the old phrase “An elevator with a lunatic at the controls” and I cast no dispertions on ICM.
83 Yes, I take your point Runnymede and winning is certainly a tall order. Still, it’s 12/1 and I reckon they have a better than 8% chance so worth a small dabble.
Sadly, I don’t think you will get very big odds against Labour finishing fourth. If I see any, I will be on them like a shot!
82. Well normally Labour would hope to poll well among the students…but of course times have changed.
So when they move the writ is a tricky one - try to hold second by holding the election outside term time…or give up entirely, hold the vote in term time and entertain the faint hope that a Green surge could stop the Tories.
Judging by the Labour comments so far plugging the Greens, they do indeed seem to have given up hope of winning, and perhaps even of holding second…
86. I fully expect the Tories to gain the seat, but perhaps not by enough to indicate an overall majority at the GE…
90. Really Rod? How surprising.
87
The vote share changes look like they are based on the last GE result. Since 2005 the Greens have been slowly but surely increasing their vote throughout the city, so an 11% increase is plausible and may even been a little on the low side. We shall see.
91, don’t worry. According to the Henley by-election Labour will get fewer MPs than the BNP.
48 - I’m sure that what also appeals to him is that if the UK government is responsible for less than 50% of the loan, then it is completely off the books.
He tried to pull this same stunt with the millenium loan if you recall.
90 A similar result to Crewe and Nantwich then?
Just completed the last thread during my lunch hour. Apologies for go off an interesting, valid, betting thread, but I did notice following on from Smithsons terrible “All Tores are anti-semite” header, there were then posts which were homophobic, blasphemous, classist, ageist, references to the nasty Tory party, jokes about a father who has just died, paedo smears, racist Tory smears, politically immature Tory smears, smears about John Major / Edwina Currie, smears about cash for questions and jokes about anorexics.
All from our very own tim, Coldstone, Nick Palmer and Jack W.
So whos the nasty party then boys? Have I stumbled across a lib Lab spat about who can be the nastiest?
Meanwhile, using the word “Idiot” leads to slapped legs.
Mike Smithson, I think your left eye is bheing overworked. Try opening the right one occasionally.
85,martin keep sending your illiberal flag and message round the internet,the people are getting the message,lol
95. I would expect a less good result than C&N for the Tories. If it’s as bad as this poll an autumn election might be on the cards….
90 - According to Baxter et al, on a uniform swing up across the country if the Tories win Norwich North they would have a majority of 2. I struggle to see how you translate this into not able to win a majority.
I think the interest in this seat is not who wins it, but how big a majority the Tories get. Given this is the “threshold” seat for a Tory majority, i think the result of this by-election can easily be read across to how big a majority the Tories have in 2010.
79. I’d be happy enough if Caroline Lucas won in Brighton Pavilion.
She’s the only Green politican I admire and respect.
Berk-d1ck on Conhome:
John Bercow: “Something of a relief” to leave Tory benches
John Bercow yesterday: “I confess for somebody who’s historically and perhaps even legendarily independent-minded that that is frankly something of a relief.”
Can you see why everyone thinks he’s a pr1ck yet?
100, can’t stand the woman. Too earnest, too holier-than-thou. And she’s a republican.
78
Interesting. Any idea how much of a personal vote? They can be surprisingly large. That will obviously all go, so is the true starting point for the labour vote much lower than it is now?
Morning network TV news shows over here nothing but wall to wall Michael Jackson, with the occasional mention of Farrah Fawcett.
100. The Greens are all bonkers.
103. Sounds like a good excuse in the making, anyway…
97. johnno.
102. But she’s actually quite a nice person.
It wouldn’t bother me to have a Green MP in the HoC. The debate they’d stimulate would be quite interesting.
It would also help *us* shape our environmental policies too.
98. A poll bad enough that it shows them winning Norwich N?????
More New York politics funnies:
If you think Bercow’s comments (see 101) are outrageous, imagine this if you will:
“Hotheaded Sen. Kevin Parker (D-Brooklyn), who is under indictment for attacking a Post photographer, leveled the harshest, and personally insulting, assessment, calling [New York Gov.] Paterson “a coke-snorting, staff-banging governor.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06262009/news/regionalnews/gov_bid_to_hut_circus_176186.htm
Now is that any way to talk about the leader of your own party?
I get the feeling the LD are as panicked as Labour.
LD are on the verge of meltdown, I remeber the day following the Euro election Nick Clegg looked like he had been dealt a hammerblow to his leadership! Bet Clegg was relieved he had not had the e-mails circulating to have him removed!
Anti-semitism by Ken Loach?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8059318.stm
107, one or two Green MPs wouldn’t be terrible, but not her. She’s a mountain of self-righteous tedium. It’s super that she’s nice but then, so are some Jehovah’s Witnesses. It doesn’t mean I want them knocking on my door.
And she’s a republican.
In fact I’ve changed my mind. I hope we don’t have republican MPs.
112, Too left wing to be a Republican!!!
(I’ll get me coat!)
110. The Lib Dems certainly need to put in a creditable performance here.
Their reputation as byelection kings has taken a big dent over the last 18 months, and they also have an eye on the neighbouring Broadlands seat where some wards will transfer to after the GE.
110,cleggover needs a good result,soon.The man as LD leader as been no better than our ming,in elections .
115. Skeleton would have had trouble with expenses - it would have finished him off IMO!
112. Even Daniel Hannan thinks very highly of her and you can’t get much sounder than he.
She’s fine.
By the way, has noone else noted my post at 101?
****JOHN BERCOW LITERALLY THINKS HE IS A LEGEND****
In his own words at 101: GO READ.
99. Which NN, the old or the new? I make it a Tory majority of about 21 at the 50/50 point for the new NN.
But we are dealing with the old NN, which is better for the Tories, so a win now is not worth quite as much.
But that all rather misses the point.
Throughout history, the swingback phenomenon has been observed, meaning that to extrapolate a GE win, the Tories have to do significantly better in NN than the Baxter-type swingometers indicate…
I’d hazard that anything less than a 10% swing would be classed as a poor result, in terms of their likelihood of winning an overall majority.
10-15%, better, but far from certain.
15-20%, odds-on
20%+, very likely.
Basic ball-park stuff, but to some extent will be refined depending on how well Labour do in Glasgow, and any further by-elections before the end of this parliament…
111 - I don’t like throwing the word Anti-semitism around too much, because it is often used by Israel as a way of stopping any debate. But that is not an acceptable thing for Loach to be getting involved with, and just shows that the left think it’s okay if they’re bigots - but nobody else.
116,when you call him skeleton ,I always thought of him has the man in the worthington sweets advert.
The issue of second jobs is next week’s hot potato. Will the jobs former Labour Cabinet Ministers have taken since leaving the Cabinet come back to bite Labour? There was an interesting segment last night shown on Newsnight Scotland programme. The commentator Iain McWhirter thinks it is worse than MP’s expenses. Here is the programme for you to watch and reflect on.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00lg9fl/Newsnight_Scotland_25_06_2009/
Surely a poll result like this will make the Labour party more determined to kick the date of this by election into the long grass?
I would imagine that Gibson was quite a hard working MP, and that the local organisation will not have to do the basic ground work that was needed in either Glasgow East or Glenrothes? But the manner in which Gibson has been forced to step down, and the local Labour activist support he got at the time is going to make this very tricky for Brown&Co.
I still think what happened to the Register in Glenrothes was highly suspicious, it pushed the bounds of credibility.
118. Rod - tell us more about your swingback theory..
121 - I have a theory about those second jobs. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tory jobs showed them earning lots of money, which isn’t good from a ‘fat cat’ point of view. But I also reckon that the Labour ones will have taken up far more of their time, and actually work against Brown’s latest wheeze to punish MPs for the length of time they are doing this sort of thing.
119. Ever was it so.
103. The swing to the Tories in NN 1997-2005 was less than half the regional average (2.8% v 6.2%.)
This could imply a personal vote of 1600 for Gibson, which doesn’t sound implausible….
Wimbledon question - why is Federer the 2nd seed when Nadal isn’t involved? Is it because the seedings are set weeks in advance?
121.Marcia, I saw that last night, and lets just say I was gobsmacked at the list of second jobs a certain former MOD Minister holds.
Some have been keen to hype up the impact of these second jobs on the Conservatives, particularly those in the Shadow Cabinet. I think they are wrong, especially when most have now indicated they will give them up. No, its going to be some of the Labour MP’s outside interests which might cause the most ructions.
124. I suspect that too. I’m keen to know, for instance, how much Diane Abbott has earned from her appearances on This Week.
122 - Labour would be fools not to go as soon as possible.
The local organisation is neither here nor there for a by-election - you bring people in to do that. The longer it goes on, the more the Tories will throw at it and the more Labour will lose by - they would be well advised to do it over the summer when people are often away and/or not really focussed on political news and MPs are away from Westminster tea rooms.
117, even the wise err
[Except for Morris Dancer. My diet of space cannon explosive and enormo-haddock keep my brain in perfect working order].
128,hope you right.
127 - The seedings were set about a day or two before Nadal withdrew.
123.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/06/30/guest-slot-rod-cosbys-by-election-trend-analysis/
Tory average currently stands at 5.6%
Tories most likely need 10-12% for a majority.
They’re not going to make it, are they?
128 - The “story” over second jobs will be the insinuation that the second employers are buying influence or paying back past favours.
Conservatives haven’t been in power for over a decade so while there may be criticism along the lines of “how do they make time for the day job when they’re coining it with Imperial Tobacco”, that allegation just isn’t as serious.
On second jobs, I’m looking forward to the details of former Home Secs who forced through ID Card legislation.
And are now rumoured to be doing more work, for big money, on behalf of ID Card peddling companies. Another Brown own goal beckons.
119 - You may find that Loach’s boycotts apply to countries other than Israel and people other than Jews.
I doubt it, but you might.
Loach is active in “Respect.”
Public spending poll spells bad news for Brown
YouGov survey showing voters could support 10% public spending cuts is bad news for PM’s election strategy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jun/26/gordon-brown-public-spending-poll
Average since when? Surely the only by-election of any note from the tories viewpoint (i.e. a seat they might hope to win) was Crewe and Nantwich, where they got a 17-odd% swing. I don’t think including Glasgow East, Glenrothes, or any since before Brown was elected makes any sense
People will vote to get Brown out, it is all but certain, Labour are at historic lows in the polls.
127. Sorry to revive bad memories of the last thread, but there’s a hilarious picture in this week’s Jewish Chronicle of Bercow sporting a Rambo T-shirt from 1986. The paper says the “charge of expedience has hung around Mr Bercow all his political life” and refers to an incident with the Jewish Society at Essex University stating: “It appeared to the executive of the Jewish society that Judaism was being adopted as a useful tool to serve political ambition”. It is clear there are strong reasons to mistrust Mr Bercow. Let’s hope as Speaker he will prove to be a reformed character.
138. And of course 10% cuts in real departmental spending are much lower than a 10% cut in nominal public spending which is probably what most people thought the question meant.
So ’slash ‘n burn’ really looks in vogue….and why not?
137 - ohh, quite possibly. But the same point applies - he’s one of those on the left who thinks it’s absolutely okay for him to hate certain people and countries, but is quick to brand anyone on the right with the bigot brush for thinking/saying far milder.
Who is Ken Loach anyway?
Astonishing story - a boycott called for because they are paying for a filmmaker’s plane ticket (in economy class)?
What a tw@. Just bizarre.
142. Great artists are frequently dreadful people…
132.johnno, it will be interesting to see the range of outside interests of former Labour Ministers, and how much they are linked to their previous government departments. Watch out for links with lobbying firms, that could still have ructions on a level with expenses.
Personally, I think that the rules for outside interests after a stint in government need to be tightened much further. And again, like MP’s expenses, its an issue which has been many years in the fermenting under both this Labour government, and the previous Conservative one.
135.”Conservatives haven’t been in power for over a decade so while there may be criticism along the lines of “how do they make time for the day job when they’re coining it with Imperial Tobacco”, that allegation just isn’t as serious.”
SNP, that is exactly why I think the impact on Conservative party over their MP’s outside interests is being over hyped.
96 Albion Till I Die. I’ve been smeared by lower life than you but it certainly says much about your lack of intellectual rigour.
Has anyone spotted any bad news being buried?
I would have thought the Government and Whitehall would be falling over themselves trying to leak today.
IMHO you have to be fairly balanced about critisizing an MP particulary in opposition for having a second job . The is a strong argument that this enables MP’s to be drawn from a broader base than a party of purely professional politicians. In addition Government ministers have a dual role ie forfilling their duties as a government minister ( Which is a paid role) which can be deemed as a full time job whilst continuing with the constituency role.
I guess that the outrage might be greater not on the shadow cabinet, but on former Labour Government ministers who are feathering the nest with roles that have only been gained due to the ministerial knowledge and connections.
144 - and how does that - very true - statement apply to Ken Loach?
147.wibbler, and being a Friday afternoon just before the beginning of summer recess, you can bet there are some nasties being slipped out.
Re the Greens winning here.
If we assume that the Conservatives will get at least 35% and that there will be 5% for non Green ‘Others’ then that leaves only at most 60% to share between Labour, LibDems and Greens.
Not only would that means the Greens would need to get two thirds of this leftist vote but that Labour and the LibDems would both be under 20% and highly likely that one maybe both of them be under 10%.
This would make an interesting result:
Con 40%
Grn 30%
Lab 8%
LD 7%
Oth 5%
One thing different between this election and Crewe is the cause of the byeelection. Crewe was caused by the death of a much loved long standing MP, Norwich North is caused by the sacking for sleeze of the MP.
Has a party ever finished fourth when defending a seat at a byeelection?
I came across Rupert Read the green candidate on the European campaign trail. He didn’t actually talk about the environment very much and it was all Old Labour stuff - nationalise the banks, the railways etc. I suppose some of the Norwich greens might switch to labour but that isn’t the message they have been getting from Rupe.
143. Jon C
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Loach
149. I was being charitable - I hate his films personally but others seem to rate them.
151. I asked the same question (re. defending parties coming 4th in a byelection) on the last thread…anyone know the answer?
And can we have a market, please?
142: ‘…he’s one of those on the left who thinks it’s absolutely okay for him to hate certain people and countries’
Loach was on Newsnight several weeks back. Kept referring to those miners who exercised their right to work in a free country as ’scabs’. Deeply unpleasant I thought. Labelling one section of humanity with such a vile term is no different to chucking about ‘n*gg*r’, ‘y*d’, ‘ch*v’ and ‘t*ff’ in my book. Odious chap!
141 the great public services lie. what complete twaddle it is!
144. Loach should stick to film-making. Politically he’s an idiot. I had some minor dealings with him years ago. Despite dedicated support from the independent regional cinemas who showed his films he was always derogatory about them for being too middle class. He felt his films should be shown at ‘working class’ multiplexes. The issue of box office didn’t seem to figure in his calculations. He was mild mannered but completely illogical. Ideology was everything.
148 - I think the “real world experience” line about outside work is quite dodgy. We are mainly looking at non-executive directorships here, not the night shift at Tesco.
There is often a hint that favours will be asked for at some point - although MPs are often intelligent individuals with the ability to get a grip on papers and issues quite quickly so the reasons for employing them as a company director needn’t be sleazy. And ultimately it’s for constituents to decide whether their MP is putting in the necessary hours - based on full disclosure of their outside work.
Where it is dodgy is ex-ministers walking into jobs which might conceivably have been agreed or hinted at when they were in office. Here the rules must be tighter.
147. Does this count?
“In clear breach of that ruling, today the Schools Secretary has announced through the Guardian and the BBC that the Government has abandoned its literacy and numeracy strategy.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/balls-accused-of-breaching-speakers-ruling-on-statements-1720411.html
Loach, as a supporter of Respect, may like to express his views on the sole Respect MP George Galloway being paid significant amounts of cash by Iranian State TV
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/26/746990/-Galloway:-Khameneis-British-mouthpiece
Bank of England: Bailout bill hits £1trillion
Sam Fleming, Daily Mail
26 June 2009, 7:40am
Reader comments (26) | Data
The Bank of England has issued a dire warning about the crippling taxpayer costs of the financial crisis.
Just two days after its governor Mervyn King’s lacerating attack on the Treasury, the Bank warns a further, even more radical overhaul of the stricken banking system may be needed.
In its bi-annual Financial Stability Report, the Bank calculates a breathtaking £1.26 trillion of public funding has already been pledged to support the City.
But it warns that banks remain too financially feeble to bolster lending to normal levels. And any additional infusions of public money could impose dangerous pressures on governments’ finances.
In a blow to Gordon Brown, the report also found that the debt and housing bubble that preceded Britain’s crash was even worse than in earlier banking crises in other countries.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=487951&in_page_id=2&expand=true
159.That is quite a big announcement, and it should have been made in Parliament first.
159 - Given it was announced a short while BEFORE the Jacko news broke, then I would suggest it isn’t burying bad news (unless Balls is possessed of astonishing powers he might like to discuss with Uri Geller). In any event, I am not sure Labour wants it buried as it will be broadly welcomed by teachers.
However, what it is is a breach of Bercow’s ruling on statements being made to the House. That’s the proper criticism.
157. Yes it’s quite rare to find someone as ideologicall dogmatic as Loach - though there were a lot of them 20-30 years ago.
159. Looks like Balls is continuing his attempts to igratiate himself with the left and Teachers’ unions. Clearly still got an eye on replacing Brown - how deranged is he?
162, aye that was raised by Waugh and I think cited in a Coffee House article. We’ll see now whether Bercow, after letting the PM off, is going to prove toothless or actually enforce his decree.
163. On the World at One today…
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/balls_decentralisation_will_give_schools_greater_flexibility.html
159. I get the impression Balls is trying to upstage Gove after last week’s SATS announcement.
Oooh, rare blood suckers return:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/5649149/Rare-blood-sucking-lamprey-fish-return-to-English-rivers.html
Is Southam Observer around? We have an open air party on our Cricket Field in Lutterworth tonight.
Just had very heavy rain but stopping now. Is there more on the way?
118 Rod on a serious note have you done a spreadsheet with all 650 seats for the GE? if so I would appreciate a copy to msf10@hotmail.com
1 - good news David, hope it works out for you.
Dulko breaks Petrova in the first set
Backed and laid Duko, so evens if Petrova wins.
163.”159 - Given it was announced a short while BEFORE the Jacko news broke, then I would suggest it isn’t burying bad news”
SNP, as I said up thread, a Friday afternoon just before summer recess is a great time to bury bad news. And this government have lots of form for doing this in the last few weeks of June, it a deeply cynical and dishonest way for the government to behave. So I think that we can safely assume that Balls was indeed trying to bury this news BEFORE the news of Jackson’s death broke.
63 - from the link
Ministers’ move will end centralised prescription of teaching methods and oversight of literacy and numeracy hours in primary schools and save the Government up to £100 a million a year currently spent on private consultants.
juat on this one “initiative” they spend 100 Mil a year on private consultants??????
173. doesn’t your criteria make it pretty tough for him to win?
152 - I cant help but feel that the Norwich Greens havent helped themselves very much with their candidate choice (in so far as their candidate choice actually matters which may well not be much).
176. That depends on what the Greens are trying to do - if they are after old Labour voters he doesn’t seem the worst choice. I can’t see them making serious inroads without going down that road to some extent.
Probably 23 July according to the EADT:
http://www.eadt.co.uk/content/eadt/blogs/dines_days.aspx?PostURL=http%3A//www.eadt.co.uk/cs_eadt/cs/blogs/dines_days/archive/2009/06.aspx
177 - I wasnt really talking about the kind of policy platform he might espouse (do we really think that the average voter knows much about Green Party policy generally never mind the potential policy differences between different Green Party candidates?!).
173 - I think that criticism’s a bit harsh. It’s totally fair to have a go when news is sneaked out under cover of a major breaking news story elsewhere (9/11 in the classic case but it would also be a fair criticism if stories were released just after Jacko’s death even though that’s a smaller big story). But you can’t seriously have a moratorium on making any announcements on fairly normal days in late June.
A much fairer criticism is he should have announced it in Parliament. That point I agree with. But “burying bad news”? Misuse of the term and tends to devalue it IMO.
174. As I understand it, the “old” plan was centralised methods for teaching numeracy and literacy, and they paid Capita consultants to train the teachers how to teach…
The “new” plan is to let the teachers teach in whichever way they think gets the best results…
What a concept!!
180. Labour - the first party ever to enter opposition before losing office….
180 - I was thinking why does Capita ring a bell
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4836024.stm
Just a coincidence i’m sure
argh - renumbering 184 was for 182
175&179.Haven’t got time to go back and scroll through last years threads during this period, but lets just say, I have a vague memory that we might find some similar comments about other bad news that was slipped out in the last couple of weeks before summer recess, and for exactly the same reasons.
Lets hope the weather doesn’t break now, off now to help prepare the food for a local barbecue. Its Scotland, the rain will appear just as we light the it.
I think the story of the day is the seeming nose-dive in relations between the Bank Of England and the Government. I’m sure it will all in end in tears for the Government and their useless flunkies at the FSA:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1195622/Darling-threatens-weaken-Bank-England-amid-claims-chief-holds-unholy-alliance-Tories.html
87
Clearly totally unaware of Norwich politics, then
92
Agreed
151
However, this may be going a little too far. I suspect a fairly close 3-way race for second place, but quite a way behind the Tories. Yes, there is a real chance of the incumbents coming fourth - but only a small one; 2nd is more likely.
Federer’s opponent just won the 3rd set - it’s now 2-1 to Fed. Is my German very rusty, or does this man’s name mean Cabbagewriter?
184 - and this http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6493942.ece
170: Yes, yes we already know Mandy’s back in the cabinet.
187. yes, very interesting developments there.
Labour keen to shield and build up the power of their cronies in the FSA (step forward, Lord Turner, corporate Labour toady-in-chief over the last decade)despite its proven reputation for incompetence. Sound familiar, Mr.Speaker?
Tories meanwhile cleverly getting the Bank onside.
182, unfortunately, there are teachers who won’t bother trying to get the best results knowing they can always blame their pupils’ failure on social background and school spending levels. I had a couple of teachers like that at my comprehensive, one of them very active in his union who openly and repeatedly told us he couldn’t be bothered, and other teachers I now know tell me it’s a pretty widespread attitude, at least among Sheffield teachers.
Until such time as the bad apples have been purged, teachers need their noses firmly holding to the grindstone. Labour may very probably have been doing so in an ineffective and costly way, but abandoning the effort isn’t the right response; it’s just a sop to the NUT.
191. Indeed. I only have a superficial impression of the City’s view of the Bank and the FSA but from that impression I get the feeling is that much of the City would rather fall in behind the Bank rather than the FSA (which has been little more than an annoying nuisance)?
112 Martin Day your viceral hatred of the LIBDEMs is no excuse for your conclusion here about the EURO election results - the LIBDEMs were listed as gaining one net seat in the Euros [allowing for total decrease in UK seats] So I think much relief for LIDEMs in what has always proved a difficult set of election
187 - good article, though it says darling’s budget ‘won praise for its honesty’.
So the governor of the Bank of England expresses concern about the economic condition of the nation, thus - according to the government - is fighting on the Tories’ side.
As a spiteful slap down, the chancellor decides to strengthen the FSA and weaken the B of E.
Meanwhile Brown keeps up with ‘Tory Cuts’….
Standard and Poor’s have the country on negativity watch, and the government is doing nothing to restore confidence: in fact quite the reverse by saying they will increase spending yet more.
How could it be worse? And Yet you just know Brown will find a way..
187 - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/camilla_cavendish/article6578832.ece
“Alistair Darling is sore that Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, keeps pointing out the dire state of the deficit, and urging him to cut spending. Mr King is upset that the Chancellor has not even deigned to show him the banking regulation blueprint that he will publish next week. Lord Turner of Ecchinswell, the FSA chairman, says that it’s unfair to ask it to take responsibility if the Bank has the power. He has persuaded Mr Darling that the FSA’s reward for staggering incompetence in the past should be more muscle in future. What was once the world’s financial centre is beginning to resemble a banana republic plagued by feuding chieftains.”
193. Yes though I’d put it a bit stronger than that.
I’ve often wondered why the Lib Dems take the brunt of Martin’s wrath rather than Labour. After all, it seems pretty natural to put either Labour or the Tories at the top of one’s “hate” list since those are the only two parties that ever run the country. Perhaps some dark incident in the distant past… (?)
Federer very angry at non-Federer man winning set of tennis… leads 4th set 4-1.
Ken Loach is a multiple-award-winning filmmaker with dozens of entertaining, memorable works to his name over 4 decades.
Ken Loach is a better and more talented man than 99% of people here (including myself).
196. Whatever New Labour touches eventually turns to sh*t.
Christina, I was talking to some colleagues at lunch today and one of them reckoned that Tiree was the sunniest place in the UK! Is that true?
200. So? Hitler and Stalin also had their talents!
jsfl - The FSA is a joke - box-tickers par excellence. The FSA exams which anyone even remotely connected with finance have to suffer are ludicrous. To pass you have to learn by rote lots of niggling details of no importance (such as the maximum sentences for various crimes and the section numbers of the acts - I kid you not!). Of course, the result of all this New Labour box-ticking was that the big picture was missed. Complete madness, but I think big savings to be made by sweeping away the nonsense.
196
or the feuding services in the final months of the Third Reich…
Do you think Brown identifies with Jackson? - a high flier who took a dive and ended his days in debt.
200 - Yes I agree with you completely - he has enormous talent as a film maker.
But that does not mean that his political views are any better or more valid than anyone else’s.
207. I’d go further - luvvies’ views should almost always be given less weight than those of others.
Ken Loach may be talented but I don’t enjoy his films. They do not entertain me.
There used to be a joke comparing Harold Wilson (remember him?) to Christopher Columbus. Wilson led the 60s Labour government that also (surprise, surprise) ended with a financial crisis.
When he set out he didn’t know where he was going, when he got there he didn’t know where he was, when he got back he didn’t know where he’d been - and he did it all on borrowed money.
Sounds like the Greens have a highish profile left wing candidate in which case it does make sense that the Labour vote will collapse as some leftie voters coalesce around her as a protest and others stay at home or lend their vote to the Tories.
I’d rather watch Transformers or even a Dan Brown film then a Ken Loach one….
210. Wilson’s government was a paragon of financial virtue compared to this one.
Trouble at, ‘Fort Boris’
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23712701-details/Mayor+s+former+deputy+to+face+fraud+inquiry/article.do
And even more!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/davehillblog/2009/jun/25/london-london
204. The FSA was considered a joke before the crisis, events have merely confirmed that it was a useless as was suspected.
Note to future governments of the UK, when your regulator is considered laughable by those it regulates there is a problem that requires fixing.
Ideologically inoffensive film-makers tend to make inoffensive, unimaginative films.
Perhaps some of you out there would prefer the middle-of-the-road, no-rough-edges, popcorn-charm of, say, Ron Howard, as opposed to Eastwood (Libertarian), Kurosawa (Marxist) or Loach (Old Labour), but I most certainly would not.
Looks like Kohlschrieber roused Federer’s wrath.
I hope Tsonga can beat Karlovic. Must be a bugger facing that kind of serve.
216. Loach is a Marxist, too.
Where does e.g. Kubrick come in, in your taxonomy?
216. Eastwood film (star or director) = 100 Ken Roach films.
I’d rather eat my own lung than sit though one of his dreary flicks on how grim it is up north.
210
When Wilson lost the 1970 election the economy was going through a relatively benign stage. It was Anthony Barber who authored the disaster that plagued the rest of the ’70s.
I’m sure Ken Loachs films are very worthy and very well crafted.
But i’d rather pay to watch two giant robots beating each other and shooting each other with guns.
Certainly a lot of Loach’s films cannot in any way be described as ‘light entertainment’.
But at least they’re *his* films, as opposed to being hyperactive light shows for ADHD sufferers, approved by an unholy alliance of test-screening audiences and product-placement committees.
220. Wilson’s 1974-1976 government was as economically barmy as Heath and Barber.
198 - Martin is an extreme case, but the basic sentiment isn’t that uncommon.
Political people who’ve been around a bit know Labour and the Tories basically alternate. A few years ago, Major was having a torrid time. Now it’s Brown. In a few years it’ll be A.N. Other Tory. Governing is pretty tough and you’ll sooner or later have a hard time. That sometimes takes the edge off the rivalry.
By contrast, the Lib Dems haven’t had to govern in living memory so can come across as sanctimonious, smug and annoying in a way the “real enemy” can’t so easily (and I speak as a Lib Dem myself). That can be pretty annoying. They are also, in one sense, more dangerous as if they did ever break the duopoly is could well be curtains for one of the other two, which is different from the “grrr, I’ll get you next time” knock-about between Tory and Labour.
With Martin you may be right that there is more to it than that… although I suspect it’s mere eccentricity.
Films which are made to get bums on seats and make money have entertainment value designed in.
Kitchen sink drama, which was big in the mid to late 60s, showing all the grittiness of how grim it is up north etc., is primarily designed to make a political point. That doesn’t mean it’s ‘bad’.
If you compare (say) Apollo 13 to Cathy Come Home, one is much more socially aware than the other, but I’d still rather watch Howard’s movie for entertainment.
Again - a person’s talent in one area does not translate into others. For all Loach’s undoubted talent and skill in the movie world, his political views are just plain daft.
I think Kubrick — as well as Altman and Hitchcock, to name but 2 — was more a misanthrope than an ideologue.
202. Sunil, I would find that very surprising given its location, we do get much longer days in summer than England but having lived a lot of my life on the west coast of Scotland, good bit south of Tiree , I would be absolutely amazed if that was the case.
222 - Certainly a lot of Loach’s films cannot in any way be described as ‘light entertainment’. But at least they’re *his* films
I always felt that they had to pass muster from the central committee of the CPGB. Interesting though that his films appeal to middle class film goes who want to experience working class life without everhaving to go there while the working class go to the aspirational middleclassness of 4 weddings and a funeral.
I just read on:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_constituency
that we are only 6 of the 27 EU countries to have EU Election constituencies. All the others (including big’uns like France) have the entire country as a single EU Election consituency!
225. Nobody is saying Loaches films are bad - they just dont want to sit through them - life is too short.
156.
“151. I asked the same question (re. defending parties coming 4th in a byelection) on the last thread…anyone know the answer?”
Never. Worst anyone’s done is third.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Incumbents_fall_directly_from_first_place_to_third_place
224 - maybe martin works for G.E. - General Eccentric
226. Perhaps - but that rather gives the lie to your previous remarks, doesn’t it?
204. Indeed, as I said my experience of the FSA is limited, in fact to their recommendations (or lack of them - they really are piss poor) on business continuity /disaster recovery. Not being in the financial sector I’ve not suffered the rest of their bureaucratic pronouncements and demands.
As ever it seems that Labour are backing a bunch of losers. Why is it that the words Labour and loser always seem to attract each other?
172. I’m adding a few bells and whistles, but am coming up against some limitations in Excel.
Hopefully have them sorted in the next month, and will release a version then…
225: “If you compare (say) Apollo 13 to Cathy Come Home, one is much more socially aware than the other, but I’d still rather watch Howard’s movie for entertainment.”
Actually, no argument that ‘Apollo 13′ is definitely one of Howard’s better films, and not just for its impeccable attention to technical detail. Being constrained by real events and actual people resulted in Howard reining in the sentimentality and hamminess, much to the movie’s benefit.
(See also: Robert Redford’s ‘Quiz Show’, another straightforward, based-on-facts film which is probably his best, too.)
226 - Kubrick was also a recluse, he hated flying, and so on.
Yes, I’m overgeneralising. What of it?
215 204
The FSA is paying out £20 M in bonuises.
meanwhile it fails to attract talent by offering good people less than market rates..
So it attracts the dross and pays them bonuses for failure.
As a private investor, the FSA have always been a sick joke. They go on about insider trading and they are prosecuting people… but it is all private investors who are being prosecuted..
Pity that insider dealing in volume that moves FTSE 100 prices is institutional.
Personally I would scale it down and change the laws on insider dealing to make the onus on the participant to prove he has no inside information.. rather than the FSA to prove he has.
ANs make the penalties much more severe.. so if anyone in an institution is caught insider trading, the Directors are treated as guilty - which they are as they should have effective controls to stop it.
Once a few directors are jailed and fined £ millions, it will stop.. or reduce greatly.
But the FSA are notoriously useless and anyone who relies on them is by definition - and idiot.. or crooked or both - in my opinion of course…
216. That is crock Rebranded. You’re pitching Hollywood against art film. But the greatest auteurs aren’t ideological. Truffaut, Rohmer, Chabrol, Bergman, Almodovar. And don’t overlook the brilliance of Powell and Pressburger or David Lean. These guys are brilliant because they are able to transcend ideology and surprise you. And for that reason Loach, although very good, will never be as great as them.
224- Thanks, that makes sense! It’s true that sometimes it’s the little annoyances in life (i.e., the Lib Dems) that make you snap when you’re busy trying to deal with the real problems (i.e., Tories or Labour).
Back on topic Norwich North. It now looks like the LDs see the Greens as their rival (for 3rd place) and have opened up with a promise of positive politics, followed by the usual character assassination…
“Dr Read, who was selected on Wednesday evening to fight for the vacant seat in Norwich North, was attacked in a Lib Dem press released headed: “Extremist chosen by Green Party a danger to Norwich”.”
“It was sent out a few hours after the Lib Dems published a letter from Mrs Pond to Tory candidate Chloe Smith, in which she highlighted negative campaigning by the Tories in previous by-elections and promised to “run a positive campaign”.” EDP24
http://tinyurl.com/m8ylpp
Shurely shome mistake?
Dr Read had complained about LD tactics in the Euros in a recent article on Liberal Conspiracy. Prophetic words?
“Why are the FibDems so dirty? I think the underlying reason is that they are more a vote-seeking franchise than a party with any real convictions.”
… “I used to be in the FibDems… As young FibDems, we were trained in the ‘best’ ways to do things such as these: Create dodgy graphs that showed our support as stronger than it really was; Select irrelevant statistics to make our case for being in the race and the best tactical option sound as strong as possible.. ”
http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2009/06/17/those-fibdems/
David Miliband has made a statement about Michael Jackson.
What will happen when Woody from the Bay City Rollers shuffles off this mortal coil?
241 - That wasn’t really the point I was making but thanks for replying anyway.
242 - He uses the phrase “FibDems” - fine if you’re Martin Day, but a candidate seeking election to Parliament?! I repeat myself, I really dont think the Greens have helped themselves much with their candidate choice (though probably their candidate wont really count for too much anyway).
226. “It’s a stinking world because there’s no law and order anymore! It’s a stinking world because it lets the young get on to the old, like you done. Oh, it’s no world for an old man any longer. What sort of a world is it at all? Men on the moon, and men spinning around the earth, and there’s not no attention paid to earthly law and order no more.”
227. Malcolm: Although he actually said he was staying in Islay next week!
236 Mr Horse - Quiz Show is a marvellous film, one of the few that I watched twice back to back.
The others were Goodfellas, Cyrano de Bergerac and Shawshank Demdemption.
Apollo 13 is pretty good - like others - I would pay good money for someone else to sit through a Ken Loach or Mike Lee film
243. If you read Guido I think you’ll find that Miliband did not make a statement about Jackson. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if the story of him twittering about Jackson in the night came from Brown’s dirty tricks department.
“Kubrick was also a recluse, he hated flying, and so on.”
Fascinating man, full of genius and the sort of contradictions only intelligence can bring. Always advancing the technology of moviemaking yet refusing to fly because he regarded air traffic technology as unreliable (or so I read).
He was also, incidentally, Jewish — yet ended up marrying the niece of Veit Harlan, German director of some of the most vilely anti-Semitic Nazi propaganda films!
Funny old world… I’ll shut up now.
248 Waugh blogged this earlier today after dawn calls to FO
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/06/miliband-twitter-spoof-fools-lots.html
216: What can I say, I’m a philistine when it comes to movies. I love big-buget popcorn movies. The last movie for me was Angels and Demons, and before that Star Trek….. I might go and see Transformers this weekend. Even if I know the critics have ripped it to shreds, I don’t particully care.
Although, my favourite movie of all time? High Fidelity. Probably followed by Back to the Future.
248 It was posted at 14:16 today UK time, presumably because of the Twitter event last night.
Regarding the origin of the ‘forged’ Twitter story - you may well be right.
249. full of genius and the sort of contradictions only intelligence can bring - what the sort of contradictions your last few posts have been full of ReBranded?
LIb Dems ‘more a vote-seeking franchise than a party with any real convictions’
I’m warming to this Green candidate….:)
249 - I still remember my surprise at watching Full Metal Jacket, when the men were marching, and realizing that the road markings were British!
249.
“Well, put it this way, I feel very low in myself. I can’t see much in the future, and I feel that any second something terrible is going to happen to me.”
O/T - ConHome is reporting that the Tory PPC in Brighton Pavilion is standing down (for a not very convincing reason) - an indication that they maybe dont deserve their favourite status in that seat perhaps? A good time to back Labour or Greens there?
255. I know the urban battle scenes were filmed near Beckton, east London.
Michael Crick is saying that Ian Gibson said to him he might stand as an independent candidate in Norwich North.
The issue with Loach is that he wishes to hold all Jews responsible for the actions of the Israeli Govt.
Including Jews outside Israel.
http://www.theparliament.com/latestnews/news-article/newsarticle/eu-wide-rise-in-anti-semitism-described-as-understandable/
“There does seem to be a relationship between the rise of anti-Semitism in the EU and the situation in the Middle East,” said Ioannis Dimitrakopoulos, one of the paper’s authors.
But, speaking in Brussels on Wednesday, Loach said, “If there has been a rise I am not surprised. In fact, it is perfectly understandable because Israel feeds feelings of anti-Semitism.”
Can anyone imagine Loach saying the same thing about a rise in anti Muslim all over the world feeling as a result of the actions of a particular government in a muslim country?
No, I’m no genius, just rambling…
Neil June 26th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Maybe Norwich North is a contest that the Lib Dems should have saved their cash and manpower for other areas?
A relatively strong Green presence does seem to suppress the LD vote in Euros, therefore is it not time for the LDs to target areas where the Greens have no significant presence? Picking fights with the Greens will just make the Greens even more determined.
Er.. the figures are not “broadly in line with national polling”, since the Tories are generally at least 5% up on their 2005 GE showing in the national polls, and I’ve yet to see a national opinion poll with the Greens above 10%…
What this poll suggests is that - despite their own woes - Labour incredibly have a chance of hanging onto this seat, because the Tories are not capable of improving on their 2005 vote share.
Of course, with the small sample size, and the low profile of the by-election at this early stage, it would be premature to become too excited, but I wouldn’t have put this down as “just in line with expectations”.
260. I agree with tim.
Now I’m off for a lie down
259 - That is BIG news if true and could really blow things open Suspect the Tories would win but Gibbo could easily make waves with a strong second. But I doubt he’ll do it.
258 didn’t they make some of it in an abandoned gas works or something. They also shot the opening scenes of a Bond movie in the same place I think - the helicopter and the guy in a wheel chair disappearing down a chimney. For Your Eyes Only perhaps?
I recommend as ‘The Kubrick Archives’ as a fancy, coffee-table volume detailing Kubrick’s life and work. Kinda show-offy in its design but then again his movies were too. (There are of course a great many drier and denser analyses of the man.)
262 - I think it’s fairly (not very) important for the Lib Dems to beat the Greens in this by-election. They are a fading force in local elections in Norwich but maintain hopes of winning the Norwich South seat at the next GE. Their main shot of wining Norwich South lies in convincing voters that they are more electable than the Greens in national elections and losing in a by-election in a neighbouring constituency would puncture that somewhat.
259 - that’s a real waste too, because the Greens annoyed quite a few of their activists by picking that daft Lucas woman over the good local candidate they had run over the past two elections. The fact that the Tory had been in place for a while boded well for them…
266, yes on both counts.
266 - the Hue City scenes are all shot on the Isle of Dogs - before they built all that stuff there.
269 - “the Greens annoyed quite a few of their activists by picking that daft Lucas woman over the good local candidate they had run over the past two elections”
I think you’ll find that it was said local activists that selected Caroline Lucas over Keith Taylor in an open and fair selection contest.
I don’t find by-election polls very convincing. Their importance lies more in their impact on the election than in their accuracy. The impact of this poll is likely to be 1) to confirm that the default anti-Labour vote should go to the Tories 2) to give the Greens a leg-up for getting those anti-Labour voters who would never vote Tory. I would be astounded if Labour tallied 30% in this seat.
259 If so, Labour fifth? Sixth??
Or is he just seen as a scuzzy embarrassment?
272 - I don’t phrase things well, do I? I mean it rather divided them; I know a ocuple of Greens in Brighton who now refuse to work for Lucas - they are convinced she turns voters off. Just my grapevine hearings is all…
269. I suspect the good doctor will turn up in a safe seat spring next year. Something has put him off the seat, I suspect the Green Euro vote.
2-1 with Paddy Power
247
Platon, I can agree with all those films. My all time favourite film is the Shawshank Redemtion, brilliant actors, brilliant filming, great script, fantastic score… what more could you want in a film
247 oops typo
Plato, I can agree with all those films. My all time favourite film is the Shawshank Redemtion, brilliant actors, brilliant filming, great script, fantastic score… what more could you want in a film
276 - You can still get the Greens in Brighton Pavilion at 5-2 with Sky Bet.
If Gibson stands, surely Labour won’t even contest the seat, for fear of dropping to fifth place…hohoho
267 - the only coffee table book I ever had (apart from the obligatory Ansel Adams) was called ‘Mystic Warriors of the Plains’, covering the various Indian tribes of the plains and ending sadly with what happened when the white man arrived.
I lent it to someone and never saw it again, but I loved reading it. This was a problem given the size and weight (nearly 2 inches thick) of the book.
271. No, That was Beckton (see upthread), some miles east of Docklands proper. The site is now Gallions Reach retail park.
276, 279 - And 10/3 with Victor Chandler.
275 - Greens in Brighton who wont work for Caroline Lucas in the only constituency they have a genuine shot of winning a seat in are … idiots.
283. Those look attractive odds.
278 I thought you’d called me Plankton for a moment LOL
Guess that makes up for me thinking you were a bird!
285 - Better when they were 9/2
283. VC odds are tasty. Think I’ll invest.
274 - Gibbo’s expenses offences were not Premier League and the local paper has been pretty sympathetic. He has a good reputation and profile generally.
Perhaps the tory (ex) PPC just got fed up walking up and down Brighton’s notorious hills.
:reaching for a figleaf:
The Ian Gibson story is now on the BBC website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/norfolk/8121305.stm
282 - my grey matter is starting to churn now. I believe it was an abandoned North Thames Gas facility
260. Crikey Tim - I find myself agreeing with you!
292. Yes that’s right:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_Metal_Jacket#Principal_photography
286 Sorry, just a typo, but I know where plankton might come in handy..
281. It’s not all that expensive to replace
http://www.abebooks.co.uk/servlet/SearchResults?bt.x=97&bt.y=10&sortby=3&sts=t&tn=mystic+warriors+of+the+plains
Actually I wish Kubrick (and Hitchcock) had shot on location — proper locations I mean, not some big set in Beckton — more often. But nobody’s perfect…
290.
Maybe he’s got a juicy vacant Mackay seat lined up ?
Apols if already posted - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/music/michael-jackson/5650787/Michael-Jacksons-family-feared-morphine-overdose.html
289 “Gibbo’s expenses offences were not Premier League”
Well, Labour clearly thought they were worthy of a Champions League qualifying spot, given he was one of the bare few given the ultimate sanction of deselection…
298
That would not look to good methinks.
300 - Hence his resignation. He thought it was an excuse to remove a member of the awkward squad, and out of proportion to the offence and to the treatment of several others. He may well have a point.
“Paths of Glory” is a great Kubrick film. It was shot on location in Bavaria, and the girl who brings the Poilus to tears at the end is the woman Kubrick married….
296 - True, but my German Shepherd, Heidi, finds books a wholesome diet. She prefers trade size paperbacks but has apparently enjoyed several hard backs.
I also have to keep remote controls out of her reach.
303 - it’s also one of the few WWI films were the battle scenes actually look like WWI. I can’t even remember the name of it, but I saw a modern WWI film a couple of years ago that had men galloping across perfectly flat no-man’s-lands like thoroughbreds.
303 - yes it’s good. My favorite Kubrick movies are Spartacus and - of course - 2001.
One of the books Heidi devoured part of was called The Lost Worlds of 2001.
Obama can’t decide whether to issue a statement on MJ’s death:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/06/26/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5116655.shtml?tag=stack
If we’re looking at individual general election seats, I note that Ladbrokes have the Tories at 13/8 in Eastleigh and Paddy Power, Victor Chandler and Sky Bet have the Lib Dems at 8/13. I suggest that the Paddy Power/Victor Chandler/Sky Bet bet offers good value. But make your own mind up.
Sky Bet have the Lib Dems at 8/13 in Westmorland & Lonsdale, and given the recent election results in the area, that looks excellent value. Since Ladbrokes have the Tories at 7/4, those who disagree with me will find value there. The two together offer 98.2%.
As a general observation, the individual seats markets have swung just a bit too far to the Tories at the moment, in my opinion at least.
I do believe that if Gibson stands, he will win.
303. Enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0yVoxUQ7Q8&feature=related
Another brilliant approach from Darling. He is to “name and shame” banks which go against the ’spirit’ of the current tax laws.
“Banks which help their customers to avoid paying tax will be targeted by intensive surveillance from HM Revenue & Customs under a new “name and shame” regime to be announced by Alistair Darling next week.
The chancellor is understood to have a hit list of UK and international banks which he will invite to sign his new code of conduct on tax which is designed to save the taxpayer billions of pounds lost through legal and complex avoidance schemes.” (from the Grauniad)
So now people who use perfectly legal methods to minimize their tax bill are going to get leaned on. They have done nothing wrong, immoral or ‘outside the rules’. They merely wish to legally minimize the amount of tax they pay, which any sensible person should do. That is tax avoidance and is legal, moral and entirely above board.
Tax evasion - illegally avoiding tax - is different and should be policed.
So who establishes whether someone is paying a ‘fair’ rate of tax? Another Big Brother swoop from a government desperate for YOUR money.
307 - for your delectation S&S
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/26/obamateurism-of-the-day-65/
294 - I remember the old Beckton Gas works - it was used by for films such as Your Eyes Only. Hard to believe when on a Dockland Railway train from Poplar to Beckton what used to be there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beckton_Gas_Works#Beckton_Gas_Works_as_a_film_location
Since Douglas Hogg is standing down, I can’t for the life of me see why Ladbrokes is quoting only 1/5 for the Conservatives to retain Sleaford & North Hykeham.
308 Eastleigh should be 1/15 LDs and 20/1 Conservatives.
315 Well if you’re offering I’ll have £100 on the Conservatives please
312- Thanks! I guess it’s always helpful for a politician to attribute something, anything, to MLK Jr.
314 Because he got over 50% of the vote with Labour in 2nd!
The view here in Norwich South is that the fight in Norwich North may be much tighter than some people think. A lot depends on how the soft Labour vote splits. There are some strong Labour wards in the Northern part of Norwich but I will be surprised if they come out for Labour in heavy enough numbers to counteract the more Tory leaning wards beyond the outer ring road.
If Labour can hold its vote together I expect them to be only a thousand or so behind. If the Greens pick up some of the momentum from recent counsel elections they could bite into the Labour vote and give the Tories a bigger margin of victory.
A lot also depends on when the election is called and what events occur between now and then.
308 antifrank
As a general observation, the individual seats markets have swung just a bit too far to the Tories at the moment, in my opinion at least.
I think that is true in some seats. To some extent I’ve been hedging my bets by betting on a good overall Tory performance, but identifying specific seats where local factors mean they’ve got a bigger than average hill to climb.
As well as those you mention, Watford is a well-known case. (This is the seat where Mike advocated betting on the Conservatives and Jack W on the LibDems). Personally I think it could go either way, depending obviously on the national swing and on how well the Tory candidate can build up support from a difficult initial position. IMO Ladbrokes and SkyBet 11/8 on the LibDems could be good value.
New thread: “Does this blow apart Gord’s “10% cuts” rhetoric?”
Another triumph of well thought out and researched action for the government…..(from the Financial Times)
“A plan to threaten MPs guilty of expenses scams with up to a year in jail was in danger of backfiring after lawyers ridiculed it for - again - offering parliamentarians more lenient treatment than those they represent.
Transparency International, the anti-corruption group, said it would be a “clear abuse of office” for lawmakers to pass rules that would allow them to escape with just a tenth of the maximum jail time imposed on members of the public involved in fraud.
The broadside comes after the government unveiled the new offence as part of an emergency package of measures aimed at cracking down on the expenses abuses that have rocked Westminster.
Claire Shaw, a lawyer at Pinsent Masons and a former Serious Fraud Office prosecutor, said it was “hilarious” to see rules floated that would impose lower sanctions on parliamentarians than on the person on the street. She said: “They shouldn’t be passing a special act for MPs which has a tenth of the penalty the wider public face.” ”
Combined with the Chancellor’s idea for hounding people who break the ’spirit’ of the tax law, these folks have really lost it.
Gasman no I am not offering. But having the Conservatives as favourites is daft.