Has Cameron found the election dividing line - honesty?
June 27th, 2009
Is this going to be the core Tory theme?
Usually one of the most consistent Saturday morning political “reads” is Andrew Grice’s column in the Independent and today he speculates on what he think what the Tories are planning to make the election all about.
He suggests that Tory riposte to Brown’s “investment versus cuts” will be “to invite voters to choose between “Honest Dave and Dodgy Gordon”.
Grice goes on: “When Andrew Lansley, the shadow Health Secretary, unwisely blabbed on Radio 4 about 10 per cent cuts in other budgets, the Tory machine went into panic mode. But Mr Cameron and George Osborne, while privately livid with Mr Lansley, decided not to treat his remarks as a “gaffe” but to go on the offensive about the need to curb state spending. They have been helped by Mr Brown’s stubborn refusal to admit budgets will have to be cut whoever wins the election, an outdated line that I would expect to change soon.
In adversity, the Tories suspect they have stumbled over a core theme – honesty. No, Mr Cameron is not going to repeat Mr Blair’s mistake of promising to be “whiter than white,” which would only invite ridicule in the current climate. But the Tories may be on to something. In the last two sessions of Prime Minister’s Questions, Mr Cameron has chided Mr Brown for not being “straight” with the public about Labour’s spending plans. That will ring true with many voters.”
For to my mind Brown loses so much credibility when he seeks to deny the glaringly obvious - a character trait that could cost him dear. Who can forget the unconvincing Brown response after Tom Watson’s visit to his Fife home in September 2006 just before what amounted to the start of the coup to oust Labour most successful election winner, Tony Blair. Had they talked about Watson’s planned wave of resignations? Brown: “No”.
Then there was the infamous Andrew Marr interview in October 2007 on the general election U-turn. Had it anything to do with the opinion polls? Brown: “No”.
Then only this month there was the response to questions about the widely briefed plan to replace Darling as chancellor. Was such a change on the cards? Brown: “No”.
The great thing for Cameron about the approach is that it keeps the focus off Tory policy and makes the election about the incumbent. The only down-side is that it could add further to the pressure on Brown’s position and do the Tories want to be facing someone new and fresh?
Mike Smithson
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Problem for Gordon is that if he turns honest on cuts it will look like he’s been forced into it. Next time he is on Today he’ll be asked “you attacked the Conservatives, claiming they were wrong, now you are agreeing….” or “Yousaid spending will rise, now you are saying…”
Was Mr Benn’s honesty on AQ a change of tack or an attack from Brown’s Cabinet critics trying to force such a change?
second!
So it’s happy birthday Gordon as you celebrate two years in Downing Street.
People should go and look at this big interview with Tony Blair on CBS.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/katie_couric_interview_with_tony_blair.html
He was a real PM Gordon - you are just pathetic impersonator. We pensioners loathe you with an intensity that is greater than our loathing of any Prime Minister before. You’ve have destroyed our incomes and our savings and your only objective is to satisfy your pride.
Go now please before you cause more damage. I’m counting the hours.
I don’t like Cameron very much but for the first time in my life I will be voting Conservative.
Brown’s 10% Cuts line is headline grabbing nonsense.
Hilary Benn appears to have had trouble lying in public:
If I look at my department’s budget, it is going to go down a bit and therefore we will have to prioritise.”
Unfortunately when it comes to politics (as with diplomacy) honesty is rarely the best policy.
Of course, it’s in the eye of the beholder. Or rather the definer.
In 1984, Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale famously announced that he was leveling with the American people and telling them their taxes were going to go up if they voted for him. Cause they were going to go up (state and local if not federal) whichever way they voted.
Democrats called this honesty. Republicans called it tax and spend.
President Reagan said it was Morning in America, and everyone knew he hated taxes. And deficits of course, even though he blew the hinges off the federal budget and put the US deeper into the red. But that sure wasn’t what he said.
So he won. Even though Mondale was right. And honest.
Republicans are likely right, Mondale lost because he said he’d raise taxes. And honesty wasn’t really what the electorate really wanted.
Doubtful that want they want today in the UK. BUT the expenses scandal plus the recession means there is a vogue for exposure of fiscal as opposed to sexual hanky panky (though personally will take whatever the good Lord sends) in high places.
Exposure and versimilitude, yes. Honesty, not so much.
6. America really missed a trick in not electing…Walter…Mondale…instead of President Reagan…ok, well it’s a point of view I suppose
6. In our current economic predicament, I think the voters will respect honesty, and really, it would be extremely difficult to implement spending cuts in office without having been upfront about it.
So you can get away with serial housing flipping if you are Chancellor of the The Exchequer, make a return to politics in Wales after mismanaging campaing expensses, you can stay in politics if you even claim for living as a tenant at a sister’s house, you can still submit expsnse claims for flats and houses even if you are PM living in Grace and Favour accommodation, but you can’t stay in office if you are a homophobic councillor.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8121233.stm
It is a funny old world.
More Goings On in South Carolina
Check out pix (also story) about Mark Sanford’s favored candidate to succeed him as Governor, if he can hang on for the full term that is:
http://www.fitsnews.com/2009/06/17/sanfords-nikki-haley-lovefest-continues/
Nikki Haley is the first (South) Indian American legislator in the US. A fiscally conservative, religious conservative Republican very much in the Bobby Jindal mold, she announced her candidacy for Governor last month. She is married with two children.
And from the same source (which appears to be legit SC politics website):
http://www.fitsnews.com/2009/06/26/alleged-sanford-lovers-deny-affairs/\
“It’s absurd, absolutely insane,” Morris told FITS of the rumors that she and the governor had a romantic relationship. “To tell you the truth, I don’t even like him that much.”
There are two women named in story, other also denies rumors and threatens legal action. A third woman not yet named publically is also suggested as a possible by lobbyists at the state capitol, but these guys have never liked the Gov, cause he says no to everything, even stuff they REALLY want. That’s his good side, though Sanford appears to overdo everything he puts his hand to (pun intended).
It’s going to be a core Tory theme. Indeed, it is one that David Cameron has been hammering away at for years, see, for example, the headline on this story:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/10/cameron-brown-i.html
But it’s not going to be the only core theme. The Tories’ other core theme, forced on them by accident, is going to be that big cuts are needed. To that end, they are trying to tie in as many Cabinet ministers as possible to the opposite proposition, as espoused by the Prime Minister. It’s a no-lose situation for them: the Cabinet minister agrees, and they have a good quote to trot back at them showing their intellectual dishonesty when Labour eventually sees sense. Alternatively, the Cabinet minister admits that cuts are needed, and as Hilary Benn found out last night, the Tories have an instant “Government splits” story.
8 - Well, old man, you have a good part of a point.
Because Cameron will use the current downturn to frame the debate, and argue that cuts are inevitable (unless there’s a major tax increase) and thus establish a pre-election baseline for doing what he wants to do anyway. Kind of like how Mondale wanted to raise taxes anyway, but the “honesty strategy” made it seem like it might even be a vote winner.
You may call this type of thing honesty, but methinks its really versimilitude.
Especailly since major premise according to Cameron is that cut will be temporary, in the sense that once the crisis is past, then funding will be restored. BUT of course Tory priorities are not Labour priorities.
This is essential taking updating Stanley Baldwin for our times. And it’s not a bad strategy for current Tory situation.
History may not repeat itself. But sometimes it rhymes.
3 the Silver Surfer
If you are voting Tory for the very first time now in your pension years, what have you been voting up til now?
More goings on in South Carolina
Check out Mark Sanford’s prefered candidate as next Governor of SC:
http://www.fitsnews.com/2009/06/17/sanfords-nikki-haley-lovefest-continues/
Posters of gordon with his pants on fire might help.
test
I saw this on last nights thread, its also going to be very damaging
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5651825/Benefit-payouts-will-exceed-income-tax-revenue.html
6 Politics is never an honest business, but in this particular scenario with the public finances in such an horrendous mess. I actually think honesty will resonate. It will be a bad day for the Country if it doesnt. That said your post was very interesting indeed.
9. You seek to conflate two totally unrelated issues here. I support free speech but not inflammatory nonsense parading as moral rectitude. Yes Darling is a total hypocrite and not alone re the expenses issues but that does not mean that somehow rank bigotry is a good thing in Wales or anywhere else.
Obviously reminders of Gordon Brown’s promise to reduce the costs of failure will turn up in Conservative attacks - the article you link uses some good comparisons: all the money from income tax, national insurance and more is going to pay welfare benefits, by 2013 all the money from VAT will go to pay debt interest. That’s most of the tax ordinary people pay. Easily understandable - Gordon’s failed policies means that most of the tax you pay goes to cover the costs of failure.
The last paragraph does show though the dishonesty of the current Government approach “”The operation of automatic stabilisers in the social security system will help support the economy through the downturn. The Government is committed to sustainable public finances and has announced plans to halve the deficit over 4 years.”
What are those plans? Cuts in departmental expenditure and in capital spending is the answer that Gordon refuses to admit.
The weakness of Cameron’s case so far is not that he’s admitted he’ll make cuts, which I agree strikes many people as something that will be necessary, but that he’s being completely vague about what they are. He mentions ID cards (already heading for the olong grass), and, er, fewer MPs and special advisers (popular idea but peanuts). Given the size of reductions that he seems to have in mind, that’s like telling someone whose leg you’re about to amputate that ‘you may feel a bit of discomfort’. Moreover, he’s still committed to reducing IHT in the first Parliament, which will sit very oddly with, say, abolishing the Winter Fuel Allowance (as has been suggested in the Times and not so far denied).
I do think that there’s a prize for the first party to set out a convincing and not too horrible narrative for how public finances will be rebalanced after the recession. But none of the parties are doing that. Yet.
Cameron intends to keep all of his Shadwo Cabinet in place according to Peter Oborne today.
If thats the cas, any claims to honesty will ring hollow.
19 “that’s like telling someone whose leg you’re about to amputate that ‘you may feel a bit of discomfort’.”
Whereas Gordon insists that overpowering stench of gangrene is the “sweet smell of success”…
19. Nick P. “cuts, which I agree strikes many people as something that will be necessary,”
I agree with “many people” that cuts will be necessary.
Do you agree Nick?
21, I think you’ll find all we’re experiencing now are the birth pangs of a new global order and the founding of the Glorious Gordonian Empire! No more will the country be ravaged by the inefficiencies of democracy or accountability! Through printing money we will all be wealthy! ALl hail Gordon [or you'll be sent to the gulag]!
2o “Cameron intends to keep all of his Shadow Cabinet in place”
Does Gordon intend to keep his Cabinet in place up to the election? Is Darling now secure?? How about “Honest” Hilary Benn - is he going to be kept in place?
17 It ought to be for his voters to determine whether they wish him to continue as their councillor, not an unaccountable quango.
And dr spyn’s point is a reasonable one. Unless he or she is very unlucky, a member of the political class can get away with behaviour which would be widely regarded as unethical, maybe even criminal, but let them make some off-colour comment and they get the book thrown at them.
Nick Palmer I look forward to your Labour government laying out the details of where their cuts, which in totals are already in their budget forecasts, will fall.
As a start an admission that Labour have already planned cuts of 7% across the board including health would be a good start, don’t you think?
If you can’t even get to that point then you will have lost by default. Playing the electorate for total fools never pays as Labour party history shows.
20 – Have I missed something, what has Peter Oborne’s claim and your two penny worth got to do with each other?
19 - Nick
If the government can’t be bothered to publish its own spending review - put off for months on end - why should the Conservatives?
I’m sure there will be a reshuffle when Gordon leaves.
Running an Honest Dave vs Dodgy Gordon campaign will backfire perfectly if all of Daves Mates in the Shadow Cabinet remain and Alan Johnson is facing the troughers.
Tim, what rings hollow is Gordon Brown promising a referendum on the constitution and then reneging on the promise, what rings hollow is the labour party spending £1 million preparing for a general election in 2007 then Gordon Brown denying that there were any plans for an election. What rings hollow is the dishonesty over cuts to public expenditure which the next government will have to make whatever its political colour, what rings hollow is Gordon Brown refusal to admit truth and total denial of facts. Remember his stubborness over the 10p tax. The Gordon Brown show is one big facade soon to get the final curtain.
17. The Welsh councillor may be regarded as a bigot, his local electorate would have had some idea of his views. His words may be intemperate but is it really right to disqualify him from office because his outlook offends?
The great ministers of state remain in office despite their lack of probity with their expenses, and the lack of transparancy over their honesty and perhaps their tax returns.
19 That’s where trust and honesty are important - “we will make cuts, we’ve identified some but until we see the books we can’t give detail, but we promise to protect the NHS” v “we know what’s in the books but we won’t tell you, in fact we will claim no pain, no cuts, obscure the figures, shout loudly and lie about our opponents plans, oh and we will not protect the NHS”
You’re 100% right.Brown cannot bear to ‘fess up and now comes over as remarkably shifty.If Benn is an example that his cabinet is openly discussing reduced spending for their own departments in public,he simply looks ridiculous.
17 Free speech is free speech (freedom to outrage is surely what it means, there’s no freedom in being allowed only to express the acceptable?) - its up to the electors to decide if they want a bigot representing them.
19 - The stuff of desperation, I’m afraid. And your bigger problem, at least up to the election, (cf the last thread) is that the public doesn’t agree with you that it will be painful. You are losing the argument through your leader’s intellectual dishonesty.
19 and the weakness in Gordon’s case is denial, deceit and his track record of such.
30 - i agree with you.
But the new broom of Cameron will ring very hollow indeed if all his Shadow Cabinet remain in place.
tim: ‘Smear early, smear often’.
Tim I hardly think the labour cabinet is trougher free. Alister Darling the serial home flipper and dodgy accountants fees claimed. Peter Hain the dodgy campaign funds. Shadik Malik the dodgy properties and second home claims. When is Gordon going to clean up his cabinet?
I take it “Hollow” is the new buzz word from Millbank.
17, the electorate should be the ones to decide if an elected official’s (or would-be elected official) views are unacceptable.
I’m not homophobic, but would argue that people have the right to express that unpalatable view.
Was interesting watching QT how the audience was very much against the burkha and in favour of ‘Britain becoming more British’. Trying to shut down the BNP and fire those with unpolitically correct or downright bigoted views will end up making the problem worse.
We need the mainstream parties to address the serious issues regarding the dilution of British culture by the promotion of all others, without screams of racism being heeded, and that way decent people who believe in Britain and are fed up with having multiculturalism foisted upon them will have mainstream parties they feel they can back.
If the parties refuse to engage with issues like the burkha, immigration [although if the Tory cap is low enough that might work] and so forth the BNP will only grow stronger.
Bit rambly.
Matthew Parris interesting on this topic.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6586322.ece
He suggests that the Tories should go on about about this, even to the point of being boring.
Of course an advantage of this doing this, for the Tories, is that it shames the Labour cabinet into either keeping a low profile, knowing that this issue will be raised, or being questioned over it and weaselling in some way.
Gordon Brown apparently wanted to create a dividing line, and has done, quite succesfully, in his own cabinet.
Keith W at 38. There is of course Mrs Balls claiming for her unpaid fare fine, and the Balls very creative home designations. Presumably they will be in the Johnson team?
38. You miss the point , in this instance he is correct, if Cameron is to take the high ground he needs to clear out his own stable, currently people are of the opinion that the Tories are a bit less crooked than Labour but not much. Cameron needs to set an example and clear out his pals as well if they are in any way dodgy , otherwise he will be seen as the flip side of Labour and the floating voters will go elsewhere. Thats why “others” climbs in every poll, people do not see the Tories as the saviours , just about the best of a seriously bad lot and slightly less crooked than Labour.
41 - The PM will find this easier. He plans to wrong-foot the Tories with one of his typically itsy-bitsy proposals for a graduated clamp on outside earnings. The Tories must accept that the public mood on second jobs may be wrong, but is strongly against them. They will have to give ground. Mr Cameron should pre-empt the attack with a bold and simple proposal. Starting in the next Parliament (and whatever the rules state) Tory MPs should share with the electorate the proceeds of outside work. I’d propose a 50:50 division, after tax. That way, voters would benefit from their investment in a high-earning MP. We might even get Ken Clarke free.
42 - I presume you are happy with the Shadow Cabinet then.
If you’re happy, I’m very happy.
Can’t believe Dave would be so stupid as to keep all his troughers.
All of them.
17. Once we go down the road of declaring some people ineligible for office on the basis of ‘unacceptable’ views, where will it end? No way should we begin that journey.
29 Talk me through Honest Alan’s selling points, because as far as I can see he has supported Iraq, ID cards, 10p tax rate, 90 days, not giving the public a referrendum on the constitution.
So when honest Alan comes in he will have to either say I was just obeying orders and deny he ever believed in these policies which won’t look too principled smashing any credibility and not exactly like he was a leader in waiting)just a panic measure to save mps skins). Alternatively he can back them and his whole selling point becomes he was a loyal ex postman, who believes in the same old decitful, authoritarian, bankrupting policies that Gordon and Tony did.
It will be interesting to watch alan Tims new messiah deal with these massive and obvious contradictions without resulting in Gordon levels of porky pies.
29 is that ‘boys toys’ Alan Johnson and his £7200 letter sorting machine from ‘Iwantoneofthose.com’?
Or is that Alan Johnson and the astonishingly precise £150 per month food bill without receipts - a nice full belly for the ‘honest’ working man?
He troughs with the best of them.
45, haven’t we begun that? No BNP in the police, and I think they’re considering a teaching ban too.
It’s telling that the replies to my post above all, without exception, don’t deny that the Tories are being obscure, but say, “Well, you’re being more obscure!” Yes, I do think that some public expenditure will need to be cut, and I surveyed constituents on this a couple of months ago here, including things like NHS cuts that I don’t favour myself:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/492
- I’d make a start with Trident, motorway development, and yes, the ID card project, and move on to a broader rethinking of our defence role to scale back to the ambitions of a medium-sized European power. And that won’t be enough either, but it’s a start for a sensible discussion. Bleating that they can’t tell because they’ve not seen the books yet doesn’t count as honesty - it’s obviously possible to set out the main candidates for reduction. The Tories are clear enough about getting rid of IHT on large estates - they don’t seem to need to see the books for that, hmm?
48. Indeed - and I am against that, too.
But declaring people unfit for elected office is a huge leap even from that….it’s the sort of thing that goes on in Iran, where hordes of candidates are declared insufficiently Islamic by the mullahs and disqualified from standing.
Honesty has never been about Cameron. Ever since a non-political friend told me in the pub in December 2007 that he wanted to smash Gordon Brown’s face in, it’s been clear to me that Gordo doesn’t do honest or convincing. Let’s not give Cameron credit where he doesn’t deserve it; Brown is his own worst enemy when it comes to honesty, and as we are seeing that is fundamentally fatal in Prime Minister.
I agree with the comments about the banned councillor - let the electors decide and let his opponents speak out and campaign against his views. If we’re looking for savings, how about starting with the Public Service Ombudsman for Wales?
5. He was telling the truth. That’s what often gets politicians into trouble.
39 “Hollow” works well against Gordon too.
“Mr Deputy Speaker we will not return to boom and bust” - hollow laughter
“Britain best placed” - hollow laughter
“I promise that we will listen and we will learn so that we can serve our country and our communities even better in the years to come” - hollow laughter
“I am happy for there to be a leadership contest. I think there should be” - hollow laughter
“I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery.” - hollow laughter
“The Arctic Monkeys really wake you up in the morning” - disdainful sniggering
“I did maths for a year at university. I don’t think I was very good at it. And some people would say it shows.” - *silence*
9: dr spyn - the point is not that he’s homophobic but that he failed to treat members of the public - indeed his own constituents - with respect.
49 poppycock
Until your party grows a spine and faces the electorate there is no way to know how badly you have screwed up the economy.
They are vague because you are negligent, we’ll triage when you stop kicking the electorate in the face.
And trust a socialist to have a problem with alleviating death dues.
The real face of socislist unmasks day by day - and she is one ugly biffer.
55 for ’she’ you can substitute ‘he’ depending on your last broken heart instigator
Very few real Welshmen exist anyway, according to Nick Griffin.
“There is no such thing as a black Welshman. You can have a black Briton; you can’t have a black Welshman. Welsh is about people who live in Wales since the end of the last ice age.”
Brown and plenty of other cabinet members are giving a lot of interviews with newspapers. Is Brown just hoping to take all the limelight in the next three weeks until parliament rises for the summer on 21 July?
46. The Torybots obviously feel threatened - it’s attack Johnners time
49 - Your leader’s intellectual dishonesty has infected you now, which is a shame.
I did not say “you’re being more obscure”. I said that your leader is being intellectually dishonest. The Tories, as it happens, are not doing too badly on the intellectual honesty front in this area and are being quite as open as I would expect any opposition party to be at this stage. How on earth you can demand that they specify their plans when your own party - and, for that matter, you - haven’t yet admitted that it intends to cut at all (which it does) is breathtaking.
49 - Nick
Perhaps because the IHT cut is fully costed?
46 - Nor a messiah.
But compared to Dave and his troughing mates he’ll be seen to be honest.
19 NPMP
Hardly surprising Cameron is not being too specific about which cuts - your party does tend to have a bit of a track record of nicking his ideas…
Anyway before they get in to the treasury and see the full horror of our debt laid bare, they cannot really be expected to know where to start. I remember seeing some documentary once and the outgoing tory chancellor Maudling in 1964 apologised to the incoming Labour guy (Callaghan) who was about to inspect the books “sorry we’ve left it in such a mess”. (By which he meant a budget deficit of a paltry £800 million…)
Ah the days of balance of payments crises - now we don’t seem to care about the eye-wateringly dire numbers for some reason.
44 - FPT, since it is relevant and it was especially for you:
437.Tim will be rending his shirt:
“The Prime Minister’s plan to embarrass the Shadow Cabinet by forcing MPs to publish details of their second jobs looks set to backfire after it emerged that senior Labour MPs and former ministers are more reluctant to part with their outside earnings.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-squirm-as-the-spotlight-turns-on-second-jobs-1721546.html
by antifrank June 27th, 2009 at 5:22 am
63 - Hilarious.
Yeah! they’re all honest, till they’re elected, then, ‘Events Dear Boy Events’
The Today programme, JH, ‘Do you think the coverage of Michael Jackson’s death has been over the top, more on that later, now Thought for the Day’
‘Good Morning Michael Jackson’s Earth Song, what is that saying to us’ AAAAAAAAAAGH!!
59 as opposed to ‘Attack Eton’ or ‘Attack Toffs’ or ‘Attack random past Conservative’ or ‘Attack Tory supporters’ or ‘Attack Tory donors’?
Johnson is a Labour politician - he is fair game by dint of being in an idiot party that has wrecked the economy once again.
That, and being a total wussy twit on Desert Island Discs
‘I am just a little boy, I can’t drive the train’
54. Fine - so if he is disrespectful and nasty to his constituents, let them vote him out of office.
Re the bigoted councillor and all of his defenders I exercise my right to disagree and I am glad he has been disallowed to office for his homphobic comments!
59 Oooo did I touch a nerve, Ermintrude.
Tim thinks Alan is going to save the day, just pointing out that Alan has none of the credentials of a principled man so either he supports all the dire policies that got the country in this mess(which he apparently does) or he has been happy to go along with the lies without a peep.
49 Bleating that they can’t tell because they’ve not seen the books yet doesn’t count as honesty - it’s obviously possible to set out the main candidates for reduction. The Tories are clear enough about getting rid of IHT on large estates - they don’t seem to need to see the books for that, hmm?
Why should the Tories set their stall out when the Government refuses to admit the problem. Y ou mention some “main candidates for reduction” but I’ve yet to hear any minister admit cuts are on the cards.
49 should be 51
67 - tim
Brown hasn’t even attempted to cost any of his policies ever. It all goes on the UK taxpayers’ credit card.
71 Fair enough, so long as you concede that (if you ever run for office) unaccountable officials should have the right to bar you, if they deem your views unacceptable.
Joy -”Berlusconi on brink as Catholic hierarchy join debate”
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/berlusconi-on-brink-as—catholic-hierarchy-join-debate-1793352.html
51 History should have taught us that cutting back on defence is often a very false economy indeed.
77 - The story doesn’t really justify the use of the word “brink”, but certainly interesting. By the way, did you note that you can get better odds on the Lib Dems in Eastbourne with Victor Chandler?
76. Little danger of this from my sunny retirement home in Almeria )))
59
Hmmm seeing as the majority of the Welsh aren’t Welsh, they like my mother’s father came from the West Country, (Thomas Woodward Jones being another) to work in the mines, I don’t know where Griffin gets that from.
My maternal grandmother however was Welsh, that is she spoke Welsh, and that is the real dividing line, language, speak it you are, don’t you ‘aint.
p.s.
I think this is correct, in 1800 the pop. of Wales was 200,000, one of the least populated places in Europe, in 1900 it was 2,000,000 virtually all of that increase in population, was in the South Wales valleys and was the result of an influx from other parts of the UK.
51. Fair enough Nick, I think your summary of the issues in your link is pretty reasonable.
WRT cuts, the Conservatives only need to set out their direction of travel. There’s no need for them to produce a draft budget.
Oh one other thing!
Honest Dave!
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Cameron-We-should-have-listened.5407697.jp
Right! Stuart/Easterross, over to you.
81 Natural increase would have been significant too, surely.
WRT Welsh-speaking, it was widely spoken in the Welsh Valleys 100 years ago.
83 - Sean
Producing a draft budget is exactly what Brown wants the Conservatives to do. Like Kinnock’s useless attempt it would just provide Brown with ammunition to fire through his media friends, while his own budgetary catastrophes would escape attention.
81. The population of Wales was about 600,000 in 1801.
Toynbee in the CIF stocks receives her weekly barrage of rotten fruit.
Her second sentence “But progressive government aiming to change society can feel like shifting a slagheap with a bent teaspoon.”
Society = a slagheap that must be assaulted with blunt kitchen implements? Interesting concept Potty, keep it up.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/26/local-government-class-equality
I wonder if Nick is postulating the dropping of ID cards because of the fact that contractors wont be too keen to commit, knowing that a Conservative Govt will drop the idea immediately.
Personally I find that admission amazing giving Nick’s 100% support for ID cards
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/nick_palmer/broxtowe
89. Well if his bosses told him black was white Nick would declare his total support for that, until they decided black was actually pink.
Coldstone. Just the usual weasel words for a Scottish audience, we have heard it many times before. He will do diddly squat for Scotland unless it benefits him down south. They have had their Calman sham and now are trying to punt it into the long grass, there is only one party with Scotland’s interests at heart , SNP. It looks like people are beginning to realise that as well, recent votes are promising and soon we will hear much more bleating from the unionists.
86 Quite. So, let’s not do what our opponents want.
88. Maybe it’s because society dislikes so-called progressive governments.
51.Nick Palmer’s answer to Labour’s unpopularity: become unilateralist.
Interesting.
89 Nick’s one big idea and he has to disown it because it is so toxic. You could almost feel sorry for him if what he was proposing wasn’t such an expensive, authoritarian, pointless disaster.
Via ConHome: http://davidjonesblog.com/2009/06/26/political-balance/
BBC spending considerably lower for some parties than others.
Both Peter Oborne and the posters who have swallowed the line that Cameron has kept all his so-called troughers in place appear to have forgotten Andrew Mackay who was sacked very early on.
In addition to which, this debate is now losing all sense of proportion. The offences committed by Micheal Gove and Chris Grayling - both of whom Oborne rightly identifies as having an important contribution to make after the election, supposing the Tories win it - show some errors of judgement, it is true, albeit ones committed in a culture where just about everybody in Parliament was making similar error of judgement. But the sums of money involved were tiny in comparison with the amounts of money being wasted by the Government on a daily basis on inept, poorly managed initiatives such as sending one family home at a cost of £1M. The outrage is, I repeat, now getting out of all proportion.
Cameron is, from time to time, accused of opportunism. Leaving aside the point that the ability to recognise and profit from an opportunity is normally regarded as a commendable quality in a politician, his alleged opportunism is as nothing compared with the opportunity the expenses scandal has given those political journalists with an agenda of their own (which is most of them), to try to undermine individuals or parties they don’t like. I suspect most of the fuss that’s been made about Gove and Grayling comes into that category. Either of them would be a serious loss to Cameron. Therefore critics of Cameron are eager to undermine them simply in order to damage him.
If there’s one thing that sickens me more than the culture of greed that has until now permeated the Westminster expenses, it’s the faux self-righteousness of those members of the press and the public who have thrown their hands up in alleged horror while being unable to keep the spiteful glee off their faces. It’s hypocritical, it’s hysterical and it will, long-term, do the country more harm than good. It’s also beginning to become seriously boring. The country faces far more serious issues - like the fact that welfare costs now exceeed tax receipts - and should be addressing them.
87
I’m surprised it was that high, the lack of decent soil, always limited Welsh population growth.
As for Welsh being spoken in the South Wales valleys, (I was nine when I left) there was a small amount still spoke it, but it was small. They were a race apart, chapel goers etc.
Many ‘Welsh’ miners, were outsiders. The Somerset coalfields were played out, and they packed their tools and crossed the Britol channel etc.
96. If every MP was chucked out tomorrow it would be yeras before we noticed any difference apart from our bank balance. They are a bunch of overpaid crooked fan dancers, most of them only out for what they can get.
Oh look another poorly thought through piece of legislation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8121539.stm
99, posted yesterday. It may be one of the Government’s most carefully crafted pieces.
Labour, ruining the country since 1997.
97 When my grandfather was a young man, in Aberdare, in the early twenties, a lot of people still spoke it. But the Welsh language, Welsh nonconformity, and Welsh Liberalism all subsequently declined very rapidly, outside the West and North West.
Interestingly, my great grandfather was indeed a colliery manager who migrated from Somerset to South Wales.
Do we really have to have another year of this.
For Dave to campaign on honesty would seem like a bit of a hostage to fortune; There are quite a few tricky problems that he’s currently fudging - what will he do about the EU once Lisbon has passed, what will he cut to balance the budget, etc. These tend to be areas where fudging has worked quite well for him, as he has Blair and Obama’s gift for making everyone think he really believes the same thing that they do.
But if he makes honesty a central theme of his campaign, he’s asking for his opponents to do a “Back To Basics” on him. Labour will find an area where he’s being evasive or dishonest and pound away at it, and the media may help them do it, since a proper horse-race sells more papers.
So I’d have thought he’d keep honesty as a general subtext for attacking Brown, but not make it an overt campaigning theme.
100 sorry, just catching up.
104, I didn’t mean to come across as critical, just saying that there was dispute as to whether this is classic incompetence, or typical buggering up of another institution.
102, we could always march on London/
OldMotherHubbard @ 96 re outrage and proportion.
Yes, the sums were trivial but they often are in criminal cases too. A quick google finds a Scottish armed robber (knife, not gun)getting two and a half years for nicking less than a thousand quid.
http://deadlinescotland.wordpress.com/2009/06/09/hooded-raider-caged-over-armed-robbery-1167/
Should he have been let off? He took less than some MPs who remain in place.
79 = Chandlers haven’t got a market on Eastbourne have they?
105 no offence taken. Typical buggering up in my opinion.
103 I don’t think Cameron is claiming to be whiter than white. He is just pointing out that Gordon deceives as easily as he breathes and he has a track record of doing so.
106 in cases of theft the point stands up to scrutiny.
However 95% of the expenses fiasco does not.
Its like 28 days later except its a dose of outrage sweeping the place.
103 Edmund in Tokyo “[Cameron] has Blair and Obama’s gift for making everyone think he really believes the same thing that they do.”
A lot of right-wing posters on here seem convinced Cameron will immediately declare war on the BBC, the Guardian and the EU. I fear disappointment awaits.
Another problem with honesty as a campaign theme is it invites interviewers to ask the drugs questions long since buried.
Morning all
The case of the unpleasant Welsh councillor is a perfect example of what I was saying the other day about the danger to democracy posed by Labour’s ‘Codes of Conduct’. It should of course be voters, not bureaucrats, who decide on which views are acceptable. The potential danger of Labour’s new idea of a statutory code of conduct for MPs is obvious.
As for NickP’s attempt to attack the Conservatives on spending, beyond ID cards there are in fact a number of specific money-saving proposals which he totally ignores. For example, simply removing the unnecessary and anti-democratic Regional Development Agencies will save billions.
But clearly Osborne and Cameron are not so stupid as to write a shadow budget at this stage. Everyone understands this. Labour is foolish indeed if it thinks it can attack the Conservatives with that flimsy argument.
It would be nice, though, if the government would lay out its spending plans.
101
Your great grandfather probably worked for the Rees Moggs, they owned most of the Somerset coalfields: thats cheered you up!
110.
Interviewer: Mr Cameron do you take illegal drugs?
Cameron: No
Interviewer: Have you taken illegal drugs since becoming an MP?
Cameron: No, like millions of others in my youth I did things I’m not proud of, I wouldn’t reccommend to anyone else experimenting with illegal drugs.
Thankyou Mr Cameron. Now of slightly more relevance if we can talk about your plans to make the BBC accountable, save on government advertising, and whether you would rule out joining the Euro or handing over significant powers to Brussels…
That John Smith’s shadow budget cost Labour the 1992 election is an urban myth imo.
Rather, it was the inept Labour campaign run by Mandelson, Gould and the other campaigning geniuses of New Labour.
101 I think the decline ironically could be linked to the dramatic expansion of free education in the last decades of the 19th century and early 20th century. English was the medium used in scchools. Allied to this was the fact it was felt that English was the language to bring up your children in if you wanted them to get on.
110. Drugs and politicians, the issue would be serious if they are currently addicted to something which impairs their judgement and ability to make decisons. Why can’t someone ask Brown about taxing drugs to raise revenue?
As for not showing ‘respect to constituents’ as a reason for prohibition from office, it is a new take on thought crimes, one which even Orwell or the Stasi must have missed.
Nick wants to scrap trident. Unilateral nuclear disarmament didn’t work too well as a policy for Labour last time they tried, if I recall correctly. The terms “longest”, “suicide note” and “history” spring to mind.
1 History should have taught us that cutting back on defence is often a very false economy indeed. - Sean Fear
Quite the reverse I’d have thought. Every penny spent by the UK on nuclear weapons since they were invented has been money down the toilet. The Navy love their “gin palaces on water”, the Army tends to fight the last war - In Iraq we fought as in Belfast.
Countries with a fraction of our defence costs have not been invaded, attacked, if anything our miliotary size we invites them.
The western countries with the best record of economic success since the war are Japan and Germany - who have severely restricted military spending. Coincidence - I think not
118. Yeah, Japan and Germany are doing brilliantly right now.
Socrates@117, bear in mind that the last time Labour supported unilateral disarmament was during the Cold War. Things could look a bit different now.
Matthew Parris makes a (Conservative) case for not renewing Trident here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article657423.ece
The really interesting move here would be for Cameron to advocate cutting Trident renewal on the grounds that the country can’t afford it, then sit back and listen to the “boing” noises as LibDems in Tory/Labour marginals tactically unwind…
118 Well, WWI, WWII, and the Napoleonic wars were text book cases of the difficulties caused by trying to fight at the outset with inadequate armed forces.
I suppose we could just let the Americans do our fighting for us, but they might get fed up, one of these days.
And of course, there are plenty of examples of countries with inadequate armed forces who have been successfully invaded, over the years.
118 What are you on? Japan & Germany because they have had massive security guarantees from the USA. The Americans were prepared to do this because unsurprisingly they weren’t too keen on immediate and massive rearmament of those two countries immediately after 1945 for some reason. Both countries got a free ride safe in the knowledge Uncle Sam would ride to the rescue if either were attacked by the Soviets. Japan has a very well equipped set of forces and is increasing them.
I imagine Holland and Denmark had small defence budgets in 1940 proving that geography is what counts.
115. Quite likely. It’d be interesting to explore what impact this had on the destruction of the Welsh Liberals.
NI Loyalists carry out decommissioning
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8121842.stm
The UDA is expected to say later that it has begun it’s process.
It isn’t just the lying…. Brown treats the electorate like fools. He doesn’t tell ‘clever’ plausible lies, like confidence-trickster Blair … he tells stupied, blindingly obvious whoppers and not only lies, but insults their intelligence. THAT is what will do for him.
107 - Here you go:
http://www.victorchandler.com/vcbet/en-gb/coupon/show/22888/39265/98/0/1075728/1
107 - tim
Have you seen this article on Latvia’s Fatherland and Freedom Party?
The trek across Eastern Europe to find David Cameron’s Nazi-loving friends came to a wholly unsatisfactory conclusion yesterday. It turns out they are just a bunch of sweeties.
Sean Fear@121: “And of course, there are plenty of examples of countries with inadequate armed forces who have been successfully invaded, over the years.”
Certainly true. But wouldn’t the more common phenomenon be countries losing because they’re equipped for the last war and haven’t adapted to the needs of the next one?
test.
123 Little I’d have thought. They would have lost some ground to Labour in the mining seats but were still dominant elsewhere until the Asquith-Lloyd George split mean’t they imploded as they did throughout the UK.
Any thoughts on the FT piece on Lib Dem strategy on Thursday. Worth an article perhaps.
Doh!
What do you do when you submit three paragraphs which seems to be devoid of ‘naughty’ words, check it and resubmit it, change it…check it again… check the banned list…. ?
btw the word le$b1an is on the pbcom ‘banned list’ twice, three words apart!
There is something about the old George Burns joke: “Sincerity is everything. If you can fake that: you got it made” about the idea of any politician using “honesty” as a political tactic.
I strongly suspect that if Cameron does try it, it will backfire on him worse than “Victorian values” and “back to basics” did on John Major.
In fact even the Tories still do not admit the full scale of the problem and the proposals they are making are drastically short of what is probably needed.
The FT on Wednesday was pretty succinct:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4de77f4a-60f2-11de-aa12-00144feabdc0.html
“[Labour and Tories]continue to exchange bromides”.
128 Is it true some Japanese minister has had to resign because he insulted all foreigners, Japanese women and an ethnic minority in Japan? Short of Aso personally spitting in the face of every Japanese voter what more can the LDP do to irritate the Japanese public and win the election for the DPJ do you think.
115
An interesting field of study. Primarily it was that the, ‘Dominant culture’ in Wales became the, ‘culture’ of the Welsh industrual valleys, which isn’t Welsh at all. It’s the same culture where ever you have an extractive industry, left wing politics, sport, choirs, brass bands, pigeon fanciers etc. South Wales is unique in one way, Rugby! the only part of the UK where Rugby Union, is primarily working class, not middle class.
118
I’m not sure the Navy is comfortable with the deterrent. Given the choice, (it may come to it) between the aircraft carriers and Trident, they’d choose the aircraft carriers.
Giving up the, ‘deterrent’ does not mean giving up nuclear weapons. It would mean ending an overspecialised force, whose only purpose, (and a soul destroying one at that) of spending, every hour of every day, on patrol doing a mindless task.
Nuclear weapons would then become the, ‘final option’ delivered by cruise, from a variety of launch platforms, submarine,surface,air.
132 And what of Nick “come down on them like a ton of bricks” Clegg? Still waiting for that brick delivery, is he?
132 – Cicero, is that the correct link?
The FT merely refers to the Libdems as “the third wheel” [..] usually confined to brief cameo roles” and Clegg’s wishful thinking.
135. Bricks? Clegg’s possibly waiting to excrete them when the Rennard stuff really hits the fan!
135, the Fees Office rejected his claim for bricks
126 - Thanks.
I’d missed that due to Chandlers rather odd alphabetical ordering on its seats maekt.
I think that looks a decent price on the Lib Dem.
Does anyone have any local knowledge on Eastbourne here?
134 A Professor of Anthropology you are not. Stick to squabbling with Cornwall as you are obviously ill equipped to define Wales.
134 Coldstone, I’ve said before that as a Tory, I am not wedded to Trident - and would have no problem with Cameron saying that it was not the most efficient way of protecting our security and our national interests. I would imagine a better funded MI5/MI6 and a few hundred more SAS/SBS would deliver that - with a few retained nukes on cruise missiles (just to keep the French in line!).
Punter@133, haven’t heard of anything like that recently - it sounds like a combination of a couple of different ministers’ gaffes from the last couple of years:
http://www.abc.net.au/correspondents/content/2007/s1839561.htm
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20080927a2.html
PM Aso tends to be fairly universally panned for getting his Chinese Characters mixed up and being generally useless.
Despite all that, the result of this year’s election is not yet a foregone conclusion. (And there’s a lot of talk about a re-alignment after the election, so even if the opposition win chunks of the current LDP could still end up in government.)
There’s no prospect of the UK being attacked by a conventional army without warning. If France started preparing an invasion force, we’d notice something was awry well before they stormed across the channel, likewise for our other near neighbours. As for threats from further afield, they have to either march through Europe, which can’t be done overnight, or send in their navy, but the requirements for a transoceanic amphibious assault in the UK would make any admiral blanch.
This doesn’t mean we don’t need a conventional army, just that we don’t need one for the defence of the realm. Instead, our army serves two purposes. It’s a reservoir of military skills for the large army we would need if Napoleon IV claimed the throne of France or China tried to conquer the world, and it provides the muscle needed to back up our diplomat’s fine words.
It’s on this basis that the army’s budget should be decided.
141. As long as we remain a nuclear power, I would have little issue with our deployment method.
So the cost of benefits is greater than the take from income tax.
That’s the sort of comparison that the voters will understand better than the quotes of £bns for this or that usually littering such releases.
One thing though - what are the total administrative costs in disbursing these benefits? That’s where the so-called efficiency savings are promised, if I’ve understood it correctly. How much will be saved from what?
118
1. Japan & Germany have higher GDPs than the UK ever had thus though as a % of GDP spending spending was lower, in both cases it still compared or exceeded the UK’s budget.
2. Neither had the or has the overseas & live commitments of the UK thus a significant slice of the budget for the UK isnt required for either Japan or Germany.
Meanwhile, Japan is more seriously considering introducing nuclear capabilities now than perhaps at any time in the post war period.
Polly Filla’s impromptu loo-roll-covering this morning calls for an end to the ‘festering anti-politics’ before all civilization disappears down the pan. What Polly does not ‘get’ (or does want to let on?) is that the public increasingly have her and her ilk well-sussed. Toynbee, Finkelstein, Heffer, Aaronovitch, Marr, White, Phillips, Ashby…… Together this para$itic wormery has fattened lazily for years on the rancid putrifying body of politics in Westminster, playing that crucial role of stuffing their own handbags with lolly while pretending to hold their host to account. A collective Emperor penguin with no clothes, desperately cradling the golden egg which pays or the school fees and the Tuscan villa.
Compared to the emotive honesty of partisan bloggers such as tim and Martin Day and even the equally-intense and informed rather nerdish intellectuals such as Mark Senior, the facile hollow voices of the ‘heavy’ commentariat have as little grounding in reality, or record of being on top of or ahead of the game, as did the auditors of Allen Ztanford and Bernie Mad0ff and the due dulligence team at the T$B’s junque der1vative$ department.
But, if the corpse dies or is even seriously-wounded, what happens to this lot of shark sucker-fish? How many tears would be shed nationally if this random collection of not-so-wise-owls and comfortably-fat puSSycats were to be discharged together on the wrong side of Thames flood barrier in a coracle manufactured from comment-page papier-mache? There might even be competition to make the leaking vessel pea-green! I’m sure Peter Hitchens could organise it!
84. Another interesting line in that article is Blair confirming that he was pretty agnostic about devolution. The Scottish Parliament was John Smith’s great passion, Blair didn’t like devolution probably because it went against his control freak tendencies. Under Smith Labour’s commitment was for immediate legislation on devolution, Blair changed that to the 2 question referendum and he must have been secretly hoping for a No vote on the tax powers question. The start of Welsh devolution and of the GLA were marked by Blair’s cack handed attempts to impose placemen like Alun Michael and Frank Dobson on the local Labour parties, in both cases it backfired on him.
As for the Tory position it’s obvious that Thatcher dropping the commitment to devolution in the mid 1970’s was a colossal strategic blunder. Watching the 1979 Election Night re-run the other week, it was obvious from the Scottish results that there was a strong endorsement of Labour’s position on devolution. Labour gave the SNP an absolute caning in the Central Belt, whereas there was a much smaller swing from SNP to Tory but it seems that many in the Conservatives thought like Peregrine Worsthorne said in that programme that the SNP had been “a passing fad!” The only Tory to lose his seat that year was Teddy Taylor, the arch anti-devolutionist whereas the arch pro-devolutionist Alick Buchanan-Smith, who had quit as Shadow Scottish Secretary over the policy switch saw his majority go through the roof! You didn’t have to be a rocket scientist to work out what the message from the voters was!
If Thatcher hadn’t been so dogmatic and inflexible then I think there was an opportunity for the Tories. They could have offered a new referendum with the 40% threshold dropped, but with the devolution terms made less favourable to Labour. The Scottish Assembly proposed in the 1979 referendum was to be elected by FPTP, (wasn’t one of the main arguments for the No camp in 1979 was that the Assembly would have been so Labour dominated that it would have been a giant version of Glasgow Council?) the Tories could have made it a PR body. Also, the West Lothian Question could have been addressed by reducing the numbers and voting rights of Scottish MP’s. If Thatcher had taken this route then what would have been the likely outcome? Would the SNP and the Liberals gone along with it? Could it have produced tensions in Labour? It will be interesting when the 1979 cabinet papers are released this December to see what discussion there was in Government about Scotland in the early days of Thatcher and if such a plan was considered.
134
Despite the fact, I was’nt born there, and left when I was nine, I have a great fondness for my Welsh ancestry, marvellous Welsh speaking grandmother.
As for squabbling with Cornwall, thats the Devonian, (father) coming out in me.
144
Over the next few years, there is going to be a dramatic improvement in cruise technology, hypercruise for instance.
O/T. A quick glance at someone walking towards me with a Daily Mirror today flashed a headline ‘Death of Chamleon’. Is this anything to do with the emergency phone bank being installed today in GideO’s home?
Milburn to stand down:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/4462709.BREAKING_NEWS__Milburn_to_stand_down/
134. Coldstone. If you think it’s an interesting field of study, start with K.O. Morgan’s Rebirth of a Nation, then John Davies’s History of Wales, and the huge amount of academic literature on the very interesting issue of language, demographic change and identity.
Then perhaps revisit statements like this:
‘My maternal grandmother however was Welsh, that is she spoke Welsh, and that is the real dividing line, language, speak it you are, don’t you ‘aint.’
If you still believe that after reading the above, try going to Merthyr Tydfil and say it. It’ll be fascinating to see if you come out alive.
Iran protests meet Jackson’s death in an interesting video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtKshycrCrs
148 How’s the Tory/UUP pact doing in NI? Reports on the Euros here suggested a mild feeling of concern in the DUP that they maybe able to grab 1 or 2 seats back from them at the General Election. Are NI voters flattered or dismissive of the Cameron lovebombing letters to Belfast newspapers etc.
150 - Who needs a phone bank when you’ve got Liam FoxTel.
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/uk-and-international-news/2009/06/21/scots-tory-liam-fox-claims-19-000-mobile-phone-bill-on-expenses-78057-21459554/
151
I know people, from South Wales are particularly sensitive to that line of argument, goes down well in the North though.
“Has Cameron found the election dividing line - honesty?”.
You are a wag, Mike!
Honesty? Integrity?
For the first time in my life I found myself agreeing with Quentin Davies this weekend. He said in a interview that he left Chamereon’s Tories for Labour not because of political differences but because Chamereon did not really have any political ideas at all: he was 101% presentation over substance, just like that Bliar bloke he’d been opposing for years.(I added that last bit myself)
I suppose I shall have to go out now and find some sheep to mistreat. Where IS GideO when you want him? Oh yes, those phone lines. BT can be such a pain.
155. Then the people in the north that you speak to suffer from a profound ignorance of Welsh history and society.
51
‘Bleating that they can’t tell because they’ve not seen the books yet doesn’t count as honesty’-
I seem to remember in 1997 Blair telling us that he couldn’t tell us which taxes were going to rise to pay for his programme until–’He’d seen the books’
154.
“The 47-year-old former GP blamed the high cost of calls on “roaming charges” while he was overseas.”
The pursuit of Natalie Imbruglia cannot have been cheap!
And of course he never spent a penny of this or his other office phone bills on party political contacts, phone canvassing or knocking-up in local elections! Oh No!
156.Quentin Davies…in a piece about integrity….ok. Matches the Mondale for President call up thread, and the Unilateralism to make Labour popular again. Funny old thread today.
156 - gosh, defector slams leader of party he is leaving with the classic angle of the party he is entering. What a shock. You’re an idiot if that convinced you.
153. They performed well in the Euros, many people were expecting a complete disaster for Jim Nicholson, in the end he was the first Unionist elected! I do think there is a sizable potential Tory vote to be carved out here, nothing like what the UUP had at it’s peak but probably good enough for 4-5 MP’s. The big problem I think they will have is that many potential candidates are Trimble era UUP people who are still tainted with failure. Cameron did create a good impression on his campaign stop but I think that it will take an election or two for them to really establish themselves.
“Nick’s one big idea and he has to disown it because it is so toxic. You could almost feel sorry for him if what he was proposing wasn’t such an expensive, authoritarian, pointless disaster.”
You said it, so I don’t have to.
158. “Blair telling us that he couldn’t tell us which taxes were going to rise to pay for his programme until–’He’d seen the books’” ….and been given the crayons too!!! What did Blair know about sums? He left that all to the safe hands of Gordon Brown.
“For the first time in my life I found myself agreeing with Quentin Davies this weekend.”
What, you’re a fat, cowardly, careerist, hypocritical opportunist as well?
159 - Re Fox and Imbruglia et al.
Very funny piece.
http://ianbone.wordpress.com/2007/04/15/liam-the-liar/
160.
“Quentin Davies…in a piece about integrity”
I did’t say he had any. Just fractionally more than Chamereon.
164 He left that all to the safe hands of Gordon “I did maths for a year at university. I don’t think I was very good at it. And some people would say it shows.” Brown…..
157 There is a ring of truth to his argument in that the Cymunaed element in PC does seem to have an air of superiority or is at least perceived to by English speakers in Wales. That’s why PC are nowhere in seats without at least a sizeable 20% Welsh speaking element. The disappointment in Plaid on June 4th was obvious. The language split is a crippling weight on Plaid, and explains to a large but not exclusive degree why they are nowhere near as strong as the SNP. English speakers do feel some but not all of PC look down their noses at them.
167.You honestly think that or just trying to be provocative? Seriously think about what you are saying.
162. Interesting so Cameron is a plus for them. If he stumps hard in the General Election will the good trusty Burghers of Belfast South etc enjoy the attention and publicity.
I think Cameron is right to play the Gordon as someone who won’t/can’t be straight, he’s got so much ammunition to shoot at him.
On whether this ought to be a Tory campaigning line - nope, it’s a hostage to fortune in the same way Labour’s ethical foreign policy got them all over the news whenever some pressure group didn’t like HMG position. [random example - http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/press_releases/0301dam.html
Once Cameron has established Gordon’s credentials as dishonest and therefore rendering anything he says as rubbish, then I think we’ll see what line the Tories will take in the run up to the election.
“I did’t say he had any. Just fractionally more than Chamereon.”
That would imply that Cameron has *negative* integrity. How much does Brown have on that scale — minus infinity?
127. Millsy.
Sadly, the idiotic moron doesn’t care about anything so irrelevant as the truth. He just mindlessly spews out the drivel ordered by his masters.
163
What I find so strange about Nick’s U-Turn on ID cards is that it has been presented as a panacea for almost everything including,benefit fraud,illegal immigration,crime and of course security etc etc.
On that basis ID cards would surely produce major cost savings in public expenditure or was it just another load of porkies?
167 I am thinking Brasseye’s ‘Man looking at pictures of women and saying which he would hump’ but
‘Wage Slave looking at pictures of people and saying which are Tory’
Could be a winner.
Nick Palmer’s list of ways he would try and save the country from the “extraordinary deficit” (Bank of England’s words, not mine) run up by the government are welcome, and eye-opening.
Mainly for the way he presents his case, without a blush of shame. “Sorry for screwing up the entire country, guys, here’s how we’d like to fix it” - it would be good to hear something like that.
But no. Not a flicker of remorse, not a whiff of apology. He even glibly proposes the jettisoning of ID cards, after ten years of relentlessly promoting them - on here.
But should we be surprised at this barefaced shamelessness? Nope. Because it’s Labour’s only choice: to pretend the problem isn’t their fault. But this won’t wash. As soon as they start admitting that cuts will have to be enforced - and they will, so they will will - then the voters will ask: why? Where has all the money gone?
And the answer will be obvious. Labour wasted it. All of it. They RAN OUT OF CASH. They maxed the Amex. They emptied the piggy bank. They got spastic with the plastic. They spunked the children’s college fun on the cider of public spending, which they are still desperately swilling on the park bench of political despair, even as passers by point at their falling-down-trousers of debt.
Labour: the town centre wino of political parties.
Not an easy sell.
173.
“That would imply that Cameron has *negative* integrity.”
An occupational hazard of shameless adherence to the gospel according to St Tony Bliar.
178.Could you give examples which have shown Cameron lacks personal integrity, measured not against Quentin Davies, but against Gordon Brown, or any other senior politician in this country?
131/147.
Well, that wasn’t worth waiting for.
177.
“Labour: the town centre wino of political parties.”
179 - he is always honest.
He genuinely thinks his five bedroom house in the Cotswolds is a “constituency cottage”
106 John L. No, I’m not suggesting that criminals should be let off if the sums they steal are trivial, although their sentences should reflect the fact. The comparison with Gove and Grayling, however, isn’t valid because there has been absolutely no suggestion that what they did was against the law, or even against the rules of the House of Commons, appallingly lax though those rules were. What they did was unwise, arguably even immoral, but it wasn’t criminal in any meaningful sense of the term.
One of the things that bedevils the public debate about this issue, even sometimes on this site, is the widespread confusion that exists between what is morally wrong, but lawful, and what is unlawful. People often say ‘this is criminal’ when what they mean is merely that they think it very wrong. Some very wrong things are entirely legal. Another bit of verbal confusion arises over the use of the word ‘fraud’. People often use it very loosely to describe their outrage about people who acquire money that they’re not morally entitled to. In law, however, fraud exists only where there is a deliberate attempt to deceive and thus acquire money by false pretences. This is one of the things that is going to make getting convictions in the case of those MPs now under investigation by the police so difficult. It’s not difficult to prove that they claimed for mortgages which were already paid off. Proving beyond reasonable doubt that they did so deliberately with intent to defraud and not just through carelessness or incompetence will be something else.
It’s not as though it’s unheard of for an MP to be careless or incompetent.
Sorry to have taken a long while to get back on this. It’s all been happening at OldMotherHubbard’s cupboard today. A tree root has grown across a drain, thereby causing total mayhem and doing nothing for the sweetness of my disposition.
169. Most of the Cymuned element despise Plaid. Good riddance to the likes of Simon Brooks. There may be a few Welsh-speakers who harbour some kind of cultural superiority, based on a fair degree of ignorance. You’re also right to say that past divisions within Wales on language matters (especially in the 70s around the whole broadcasting issue) have hindered Plaid’s performance in places.
You’re overstating the case I feel though - in the Euros we did rather well in e.g. Caerphilly.
Generally, it’s remarkable how little division there is on linguistic matters these days - contrary to the impression you’d get from the occasional time such matters get an airing in the wider British media. The whole success in Welsh-medium education in the valleys and the north-east has come from non-Welsh-speaking people buying into the sense of natural bilingualism. There’s a huge amount of goodwill towards the language from those who regard themselves as Welsh but have no intention of learning the language. A recent opinion poll found that a huge majority of non-Welsh speakers agreed that there should be legislation to protect and promote the language. Also, a small majority of non-Welsh-speakers thought there should be more such legislation.
179 quite.
Having strong, even slick, presentational skills is not in and of itself a preclusion of personal integrity. There is always the joy of ‘also’.
Repeating something over and over again doesn’t make it so, no matter how much the speaker may will it.
180.
That wasn’t what the other Tory said to me this morning!
(and all I had to do in your case, not the other one, was to to$$ a few dollars into the dark triangle)
171. Belfast South is a very complex seat. It’s a university area and there is a large migrant population, the recent events regarding the Romanians happened in it. There are also Loyalist working class areas like The Village and Sandy Row which would be quite Tory unfriendly, there are also a lot of quite liberally minded Unionists who may vote for the Alliance rather the Conservatives or the DUP, then there’s a significant population of middle and upper middle class Catholics who are probably small “c” Conservative but who were put off voting for the UUP because of it’s past links with the Orange Order and who would have voted strongly for the SDLP’s Alisdair McDonnell in 2005, TBH I can’t see that group switching to the Tories in significant number s next year, in subsequent elections possibly but I think next year is too soon. It will be a real close call on election night, a lot will depend on who the candidates are and if TUV can put up a credible candidate here, presently they seem to be just The Jim Allister Show. Further fragmentation in the Unionist vote could allow McDonnell to hang on, at this time I honestly couldn’t say what will happen here! If Cameron does spend a lot of time on the hustings here then that will suggest that they’ve got some momentum behind them.
186. wage slave: That wasn’t what the other Tory said to me this morning!
Hold the front page!
Wage slave admits he’s a Tory!
179.
On your bike Chris…. followed by a swift green flight to see Santa at the North Pole……..
Your question is like ‘will you kindly spend an infinite time telling me how river water is wetter than that in the lake?’.
188.
Do keep up Statto. I have long-sinced owned to a history of feeling a little Tory on a regular basis.
190.Answer appears to be no then.
186 wow, you are still posting about doing a Tory girl?
Man, you must be the only person on this site who gets to do the nasty.
185.
“Repeating something over and over again doesn’t make it so, no matter how much the speaker may will it.”
Doesn’t stop you trying though, does it? And we enjoy your efforts.
You seem to find time for the smear, but not a single example have you quoted which calls Cameron’s personal integrity into question. Measured not against Quentin Davies - a man who gives a new definition of champagne socialism - but against any other senior UK politician.
193 ‘And we enjoy your efforts’
The other Tory didn’t say that to you either this morning?
Alan Milburn to stand down at next GE
192.
Your coarseness, sire, explains why so many fine Tory ladies go fly fishing on a foreign estate. Polyester dressed as wool!
****************ANY POLLS TONIGHT ? ****************
Does anyone know whether we are getting any polls tonight ??
196. A bad day to bury good news!!! Is Byers going as well?
197 oh I’m filth Wagey, pure filth.
And yeah, I repeat too, its difficult not to. Doesn’t make others repetition any more accurate of course.
196 - so much for the Blairite revival.
195.
Like she, in the immortal words of Ronan Keating, you say it best…..
Reverting to the previous thread on the Norwich North By-Election, the Writ will have to be moved in the Commons by the Government in the coming week if the election is to be held on 23rd July (two days after Parliament rises). It is already too late to move the Writ for a 16th July poll.
If Parliament is in recess when the by-election is held, does the winner have to wait until the Commons sits again until he or she takes up their duties? Does anyone know the answer to this question please?
201. Don’t be so sure. Still much fiddling while Britain Byrnes
202
David McLean (Con, Penrith and the Border) to stand down at next GE too. Health conditions is the reason of his decision (he has multiple sclerosis)
Not only must there be cuts, there must be cuts on a hitherto unprecedented scale as well as very substantial tax increases.
At present we are living in a totally unreal world, just piling up debt by hundreds of billions. Brown has no idea what to do, other than to carry on regardless. Shame on him, both the worst Chancellor and the worst Prime Minister for over a hundred years.
This Government has Champagne tastes and ginger beer pockets - any one with a modicum of intelligence understands that it simply cannot go on. With every passing month, the price that has to be paid for this dreadful profligacy becomes ever greater. May God help us.
206 - Maclean made the headlines in 2007 when he proposed a private members bill that would have exempted the Houses of Parliament from the Freedom of Information Act.
Maclean was reported in the Daily Telegraph as having spent more than £20,000 improving his farmhouse under the Additional Costs Allowance (ACA) scheme before selling it for £750,000. He claimed the money by designating the property as his “second home” with the Commons authorities, yet Maclean did not pay capital gains tax on the sale because the taxman accepted it was his main home
208 - true, but to be fair it’s still better than the bollocks excuses made by Blears, Usher and Kelly - among others…
202 touche
196 What’s the source for the news about Alan Milburn standing down? And have any reasons been given?
Mclean was apparently taken to the Commons by ambulance to vote for the Speaker election this week
211. Source is a Darlington Labour councillor. AM announced his decision to the CLP this morning
http://darlingtoncouncillor.blogspot.com/
212 - that I did not know.
All benefits should be frozen for 1 year
We need to withdraw from Afghanistan
Scrap I.D cards
Reduce public transport subsidies
Scrap 50% target for students at University
Make business more competitive by reducing costs, ie reducing amount of parental leave
Scrap baby bonds
Scrap MPs communication allowances/severly reduce number of special advisors
Public sector pension provisions need to be revisted.
GPs pay frozen for 3 years
Would be a start…
214 http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/cumbrian_mp_turns_up_for_commons_vote_in_ambulance_with_paramedics_1_572372?referrerPath=
212 etc. Welcome back Andrea, hope you will be returning big time for our General Election probably next year.
190 - who is this little Tory you keep feeling?
184 There are odd pockets like Caerphilly where the Welsh language has bounced back slightly but overall it seems indisputable that unless there is a significant core of Welsh speakers in any seat Plaid struggle. Yes I’m sure there is goodwill towards the language from non speakers but it seems clear that Plaid are viewed very much through that prysm. Along with PC’s inability to straddle the left right divide as the SNP does with Ewing and Salmond ,the language point it seems obvious plays a key role in PC’s lack of srength compared to the SNP.
39 - tim: ‘Smear early, smear often’.
Its in his DNA, he is after all “smearleader in chief”
Plus, to be honest what else have Labour got?
errm, errrm errrm,
213 Andrea - thank you. I’m very surprised that Milburn’s going. Watching from outside what’s happening in the PLP at the moment is a bit like watching an unknown chrysalis. You know something radical’s going on in there but have no idea what’s eventually going to emerge or how dangerous or otherwise it might prove to be.
217. Hi Peter from Putney
yes, I hope to be back assiduously (?) for the GE
213.
Might Milburn’s imminent departure have nothing to do with the possibilities of a coming Bliarite Chamereon government defeating the ‘cleansed’ Brownies and everything to do with the potential within the coming MPs’ ‘Code of Misconduct’ for a neccessity to declare the full extent of your extraparliamentary income$?
215
typo alert??
GP pay frozen for 3 yrs???Given the screw up over GP pay by the Govt three yrs isnt nearly long enough.
Nadine Dorries has now got a mention of Michael Jackson on her blog.
All this MJ stuff is getting OTT now….
spending more time with his family according to Isvestia.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8122280.stm
“Maclean did not pay capital gains tax on the sale because the taxman accepted it was his main home”
Kinda difficult to argue he did much wrong there then…
He was no friend of an open and accountable Parliament - but still a sad end.
225. Farrah Fawcett was involved with Majors, unlike alleged…
215 Sadly Chris, your list is merely a small start to what is actually required. To put it frankly a very large scythe has to be taken to the 850,000 additional public employees this Government has taken on both at central and especially local level. I find it hard to get my head round these numbers - yes, there are a few tens of thousands of much needed and appreciated additional doctors, nurses, teachers, police officers and other front line staff, but what do all the other hundreds of thousands of non-jobbers actually find to do all day?
218 I reckon its Bercow
147.
A quick apology for earlier failing to include Andrew Grice in my proposed coracle crew. And Nick Robinson, Matthew Parris, Simon Hoggart (amusing though these last can occasionally be).
Iain Dale for People’s Commissar for Propaganda!! Paul Staines for Minister for Truth!!
re Alan Milburn
No expectation of a Government job in foreseeable future, unlikely to play a major role in opposition. Income from second jobs = £115k, income as MP = £65k. Claims max in ACA and high incidental expenses so will suffer from lower limits and increased transparency.
So is the bother worth it?
222 Andrea - assiduously eh? It would seem that your English hasn’t suffered during your long absences!
184 I would add though that the upcoming election assuming Brown is Labour Leader offers Plaid a golden opportunity to bridge the gap. Labour will be so unpopular that even in areas that have low Welsh speaking populations but where it is by virtue of the absence of the Tories and Lib Dems (the likes of Neath and Caerphilly) the default alternative to Labour, that PC would have the chance of some histroric strides forward possibly. Then they would have to impress to put down permanent roots.
228.
And Eggwina claimed to be deeply and intimately involved with Major’s fawcets before farrahing.
223 - I doubt he’s too concerned about the second jobs thing, he is after all merely a backbencher.
He probably just thinks New Labour are dead and Brown is going to run the Labour party into the ground. Purnell is taking some time on the backbenches whereas Milburn is throwing in the towel completely.
Doesn’t show much confidence in Mandelson’s supposed ability to keep the show on the road eh?
OldMotherHubbard @ 183 re MPs’ expenses.
I am not a lawyer so will not attempt to distinguish the controversial (which I believe is the Conservative Party term for expenses which must be repaid) from the fraudulent.
Nor, however, are most voters, who may, especially on the Labour side, perceive fraud and hypoccrisy. If I were a government spin doctor, I’d stop running the “no ifs, no buts” benefit fraud adverts for a while.
237.
““no ifs, no buts” benefit fraud adverts ”
And there I was thinking this was an enterprising new 21st Century way of refreshing the various party ‘A’ lists!
236 - there is definitely a whiff of the ‘rats deserting the sinking ship’, no?
237. Does anyone have chapter and verse on the strength/standing of the Commons rules about MPs declared primary home being the place they spent most nights? It would seem to me that if these rules are genuine and were looked at hard by the police and CPS then there might be more than a few dozen MPs of all parties, in addition to the obvious ones (Keens etc) who would be facing potential prosecution for obtaining finance by deception - and UKIP would be running rampant. The local people in scores of constituencies must know full well that their MP lives mostly in the home where he is claiming his mortgage, ie it is not and perhaps never has been his ’second home’.
239 With the likes of Hutton going as well they look to be facing the sort of talent drought that Hague was faced with in 1997.
In today’s Grauniad,under the headline “Labour ready to abandon Tony Blair’s public service targets”, it only takes until the second sentence to see the phrase “part of a relaunch of Gordon Brown’s premiership”.
How many relaunches is that now? Is anybody still counting?
On the subject of honesty, the aggrieved Green candidate at Norwich North writing about the Liberal Democrats:
“To many observers of or participants in the British electoral scene, these tactics will be depressingly familiar. It is a well-known fact across the Parties that, by and large, FibDems are systematically the worst liars and manipulators of all. This sits oddly with their somewhat cuddly and fluffy national image. The latter is sustained I think by their distance from power; on the local level, on the ground, most FibDems fight dirty.
I know this from personal experience both as a victim and as a former perpetrator: I used to be in the FibDems… As young FibDems, we were trained in the ‘best’ ways to do things such as these: Create dodgy graphs that showed our support as stronger than it really was; Select irrelevant statistics to make our case for being in the race and the best tactical option sound as strong as possible, and; Pull opponents’ leaflets out of letter-boxes without being caught, among other things.
Why are the FibDems so dirty? I think the underlying reason is that they are more a vote-seeking franchise than a party with any real convictions. They lack consistent policies around the country; what FibDems do share with each other in my experience is an insatiable desire to pile up votes, no matter what the cost to others or to their own consciences”.
I had better go and take a shower!!!
241, damn shame Hutton stepped down.
242, I’m not sure numbers go that far. Maybe we should invent a letter, like pi or e or i which have mathematical meanings, which can represent the relaunch number.
Maybe relaunches = time spent in office to the power of resigned MPs, multipled by the number of column inches referring to his leadership crisis?
229. Yes reducing the number of people working for the government is vital, but I don’t think the apocalypse is upon us just yet. With growth resuming here and in the rest of the world things will begin to look better. Still, a great time to reduce government spending & in due course taxes, for that in itself will stimulate growth.
I think something like 50% of working Scots work in the public sector - can the Tories afford to give up Scotland…check :o)
The Tory Scrutiny Panel…Oh No Not The Comfy Chair!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5639830/MPs-expenses-the-claims-not-examined-by-Tory-panel.html
Nadine Dorries, the Conservative MP for mid-Bedfordshire, was one of the most vocal critics of The Daily Telegraph’s expenses investigation. She claimed that she was the victim of a witch-hunt after being questioned over her unorthodox arrangements.
Miss Dorries admitted that she only spends spare weekends and holidays away from her designated “second home”, a flat in her constituency on which she has claimed £18,000 in rent.
Miss Dorries also said that her youngest daughter and her pet dogs live at the property. This raises questions whether it is, in fact, her main residence, which would mean she could not claim for its upkeep using the second home allowance.
She initially refused to state where her other house was, but later said it was another rented property near her former marital home in the Cotswolds. There is no reference to such an address in any of her expenses files.
However, she is understood to have been cleared by the scrutiny committee and will not have to repay money.
Interesting that Cameron has seen fit to apologise for the Conservative stance under Thatcher towards devolution for Scotland.
I suppose his next step is to apologise for the Conservative stance towards Irish Home Rule, for which we are still paying the price.
247
And the next step from New Labour an apology for…….the list is far too long and more importantly they don’t do apologies even for illegal wars.
95 -but, but they are impartial, right???
248, not entirely true. Remember this one?:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/brown-apologises-for-not-being-even-more-intelligent-200903171646/
241.
Milburn? Talent? Wash your mouth out please.
An empty vessel to provide a suitably vacuous echo-chamber for Bliar’s Tory drivel. Anyway, if you like that kind of ‘talent’ there’s still the old Tory BBC (Blunkett, Byrne, Clarke).
198. We could be get an ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll tonight.
244 Maybe he took a look at the locals in Cumbria and thought I can slog my guts out for another year and be beaten thanks to Gordon anyway or I can wind down now. I imagine a lot of them may think like that as they look quite likely to be out for two terms at least on current polling, and don’t fancy a long stretch on the opposition benches again, especially those who were MPs before 1997.
“Not The Comfy Chair!!”
I reckon if you sat on Mad Nad she’d impale you with that sharp tongue of hers!
246 tim is back smearing Nadine.
Which is just what Mcslime and his pals loved doing.
246.
“Tory Scrutiny”
pronounced Tory screw? - TINY!
255.
“tim is back smearing Nadine.”
How will he stop the peanut butter get in her hair?
251 Wouldn’t be astonished if the first B and the C in your list announced their retirement, particularly if Gordon stays beyond Conference.
Blunkett will be 63 at time of next election, facing years on backbenches, unlikely to play a major role in the likely Opposition frontbench. Clarke could face a tough fight to hold onto his seat, though he might hold out hopes of being an elder statesman and return to frontline politics those hopes do not look like being fulfilled.
256
Wage Slave
whearas Labours is the star “sham”ber!
How to save money:
Abolish ALL government departments, quangos, agencies, etc, dedicated to “equality”. Just close them down.
CUT doctors’ pay.
Scrap ID cards (of course)
Stop giving billions to the EU until they get their accounts sorted
Privatise the BBC
Privatise everything else, the Royal Mail etc
Demand all ministries cut their backroom staff by ten percent
Withdraw from Afghanistan
Stop all benefits to anyone over £30k a year
Scrap Sure Start
Bring back cockfighting and bearbaiting, and tax them
Reintroduce capital punishment and have televised hanging on a pay per view basis
Legalise drugs and tax them
Two of these suggestions are not meant seriously.
Which two, Sean?
259.
Tsar’s shame baaaaaa? (copyright Q Davies)
260.
“Demand all ministries cut their backroom staff…”
….using very blunt penknives?
229 Peter from Putney Figures please to sustantiate this claim. I am a heavy user of NHS and education (as I have said on here before) - something I suspect many pb’ers are not. There is no doubt that both services are measurably better than in 1997. In the case of education, there is more stuff - equipment - than ever before, something the state does well. Like ANY big organisation there is fat. Fat always accrues when you are expanding the scope of an organisation fast. But nothing like the amount needed to balance the books in the way the Tories propose.
The heaviest users of government services are the affluent middle classes. Its them who have their children educated to a higher level, and them whose parents live longer and so cost a lot of money in the NHS.
But I suspect, they will not want that being cut. As ever the cuts will fall upon the illeducated, inarticulate poor. What is more valid - spending on helping poorer people find a job or any number of other govt expenses.
I would
1. ID cards out
2. Trident out
3. 50% tertiary education - out
4. Target the regulators, advisors - show willing - as it is small beer
5. Recognise that schools have had a good ride on capital expenditure for the last few years and that times will be lean for a while. But do not get rid of teachers or TLA’s
6. Sadly health services will have to be concentrated in big hospitals - we may not like it but it is cost effective and provides better care
8. Conversely move more and more smaller work into GP’s surgeries. At least then you reduce the cost of premises
There is lots more
260.
“Bring back cockfighting……”
Byrne’s already contested a by-election….
“…. and bearbaiting”
and Kimberley Quimm has already tried the beard baiting as a Spectator sport!
265.
Continuing the Beardie baiting theme, might we not synchronise with the London Olympics a restoration of ancient traditions of naked competition in Westminster? Bare Debating would finally ensure the end of public concerns about cover-ups. And if there was any return of back-bench fiddling it would stand out a mile.
On the “what to cut” tangent, everyone seems to be assuming an incredibly optimistic scenario where the economy is robust enough that the government can cut all over the place to pay back the deficit. This may not be the case, and the mistake that Japan made in the 90s and the US made in the 30s was to try to fix the deficit too soon - with horrible consequences for the public finances.
If the deficit really has to be reduced - for example if the government can’t get people to lend to it at reasonable rates - the cuts may need to be based on what effect they’ll have on the economy, rather than what services the voters actually want to keep.
264 And your evidence that evil middle-class tax contributors are a burden on the state is?
More baby-eating Tories confirmed as war criminals
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/5656435/Nazi-SS-officers-sentenced-to-life-for-Second-World-War-massacre-in-Italy.html
Thought Portillo was good this week; particularly when he belittled the Tory boy critics of Speaker Bercow.
Soft spot for the old Spaniard.
264 You point out the heaviest users of services like education and the NHS are the middle classes but they also consume an appreciable amount in universal benefits and in tax credits. I can’t see that those benefits can be sustained. It’ll fall to Osborne to take cash away from the middle classes, add tax to the middle classes to protect NHS and services to the poor.
The is indeed fat in organisations that will be cut - and from experience in private industry 10% or more over 4 or 5 years doesn’t look a huge and difficult target. Agree with you that targets, regulators, auditors, consultants, advisers will have to be cut but its not small beer - their demands support a huge industry in the respondent organisations. Whole quangos will have to go. Expenditure will need to be mainly on essential services, with nice to have programmes gone.
Overseas Aid…surely charity should be a private matter…another area I would cut.
269.
“Tories confirmed as war criminals”
Makes a change from the present Italian obsession: Berlusconi’s wife’s accusations/obsssions about foreign ‘whore-criminals’.
272, I agree it should be cut. It’s useful, but I think it’s inexplicable to maintain giving cash to foreigners whilst simultaneously cutting the defence budget.
Spending on the Arts…..Tax Breaks for individuals who want to support them….but Government shouldn’t be deciding what is good art worth supporting…
In fact abolish the Culture, Media & Arts Department. Local libraries/galleries should be matters for Local Authorities.
272.
“Overseas Aid…charity…another area I would cut.”
So no more freebie plane trips for Chamereon’s real foreign holidays after the pretend (media opportunity) UK ones?
Ooh aid to foreigners.
Don’t forget Tattoo removal on the NHS.
But remember.
The biggest 650 farms deserve their £750,000 each per year from the taxpayer.
264.”In the case of education, there is more stuff - equipment - than ever before, something the state does well.”
That is a bit of a red herring, there is more equipment in my house than there was 20 years ago, simple because technology has moved on at such an amazing rate.
So no surprise to see the blackboard replaced, and more computer technology littering the classroom. But has it made our education system more robust, are we turning out better educated kids?
As for the NHS, do you think are maternity services are measurable better than they were 10/12 years ago, what about GP’s are we getting value for money and an improved out of hours service? And as for dentists, just what is that situation doing to the health of the nations teeth?
270 Given they’ve both made the same journey politically from the hard right of the Tory Party to exiting it stage left it was hardly the most earth shattering of support for Bercow.
280.Punter, good point.
The usual way for governments to cut is the “10% across the board” approach, rather than doing what should be done - the approach Ford took, of re-building the company to meet straitened budgets and times. Chrysler and GM have had the medicine force fed.
The Ford approach of downsizing is more complex and takes longer, but is the better approach long term, whereas the 10% cut is ‘being seen to be doing something’ rather than solving the problem, which is that (for example) the NHS is too big and too expensive.
To make the exercise even more of a dichotomy, this will result in thousands of people being put out of work, people being the biggest expense, and many offices being closed. This is tough medicine in tough economic times.
280.Ex MP for Kensington & Chelsea & MP for Hackney….who says BBC are Londoncentric
How many MP’s of all parties, have now declared they are standing down at the next GE?
283, pissed me off hugely when we had floods in 2007. After Gloucester was hit (and rightly took precedence) there was sod all mention of Yorkshire. I remember George Allagiah[sp] grinning like a goon after a report on the Yorkshire floods. Smug arsewipe.
284, Dale reckons 50 Labour and 20 Tories.
Reading this thread I just despair at the depths that politics has plumbed in this country, the big issues buried under pathetic sniping, smearing and idiotic jokes to try and deflect from the subject. There is no concerted effort to condemn equally, only for partisan reasons. The real issue over the speaker is buried under pathetic attempts to make it about personality and we have a Prime Minister that lies as a matter of policy.
No wonder that others’ polling is remaining high and that signs of a higher turnout are not to be seen.
We may not have a party political echo chamber here but we’re definitely seeing a politico echo chamber, divorced from the general populace.
Do people realise that they’ve fallen into this, because it doesn’t seem like it?
279 - As for the NHS, do you think are maternity services are measurable better than they were 10/12 years ago
What measure would you use to define “better”?
283 - if you recall the petrol shortage of a few years ago (when refineries were barricaded by 2 men in lawn chairs), which started in the north, but the beeb didn’t pick up on it until London got hit
Tory David Maclean is stepping down at the next election now…..
198,252 re any polls this weekend.
Yes there was an ICM poll in Sunday Telegraph at th end of May so one could be xpecyed at th end of June ie this weekend.
The result of the S Telgraph end May ICM was Con 40,Lab 22,Lib 25,Oth 13.This was widely thought to be a rogue poll.No doubt Mike’s comparison will be with the latest ICM Guardian which was,39,27,18,16.Would expect something like Con 38,Lab 27,Lib 20 Oth 15.
289, I remember the petrol crisis of a decade or so ago. It was very disappointing, school was a few days from being closed but then the matter was resolved
279. ChristinaD. There is no doubt that overall health and education are doing better. But, given the vast sums chucked at them, this is not surprising. The big issue is how to maintain (or improve) service delivery at lower cost. GPs are better paid now and it is an issue - but then 15 years ago every GP partnership was on its way to retirement with no successors. Now GP partnerships are impossible to get into. Gone too far the other way. Educational outcomes have improved a bit, but not by much (slight improvements in global rankings), and again bang for buck is lousy. We probably shouldnt have spent so much on stuff in schools - I see no reason why so much is spent on IT - far better to spend it on better teachers.
The big thing will be to ditch targets in government without losing focus on improving customer delivery. The teaching unions are right that exams havent helped, but I dont think they’ll be very happy to discover that a necessary corollary to ditching exams is a culling of 3% of underperforming teachers every year for a decade or so.
Bob Herbert of the NYT describes a phenomenon that, for me, is perhaps the scariest aspect of this recession: the dismal job prospects of many of the currently unemployed, even after the economy starts to improve.
“One of the great stories you’ll be hearing over the next couple of years will be about the large number of Americans who were forced out of work in this recession and remained unable to find gainful employment after the recession ended. We’re basically in denial about this.
There are now more than five unemployed workers for every job opening in the United States. The ranks of the poor are growing, welfare rolls are rising and young American men on a broad front are falling into an abyss of joblessness.
Some months ago, the Obama administration and various mainstream economists forecast a peak unemployment rate of roughly 8 percent this year. It has already reached 9.4 percent, and most analysts now expect it to hit 10 percent or higher. Economists are currently spreading the word that the recession may end sometime this year, but the unemployment rate will continue to climb. That’s not a recovery. That’s mumbo jumbo.
Why this rampant joblessness is not viewed as a crisis and approached with the sense of urgency and commitment that a crisis warrants, is beyond me. The Obama administration has committed a great deal of money to keep the economy from collapsing entirely, but that is not enough to cope with the scope of the jobless crisis.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/27/opinion/27herbert.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
293 - Ken I agree with your main thrust but “There is no doubt that overall health and education are doing better” is more a feeling than a measurement.
I don’t know whether the NHS funding has doubled or trebled since ‘97, (lost track ages ago) but assume its at least doubled. If throughput - whether you measure that in terms of successful operations, patients seen, wait times, or fillings per mouth in dentistry has not AT LEAST doubled, you are going backwards, because all you’ve done is make it more expensive than it was before to run on a per item basis without achieving anything.
287. Great post.
The 20% of the board that is rightwingers sniping is bad enough. But now Brown’s had a mild recovery, we’ve now got about 20% of the board as leftwingers sniping - and this means they each encourage more of the other side.
PS. Pulling out of Afghanistan now is quite possibly the single worst thing the UK Government could conceivably do.
Radio 4: Any Answers - had a huge scoop in getting a Cabinet member to admit Labour will make cuts; and BBC expenses; even Michael Jackson, for God’s sake.
The first 22 minutes? Spent discussing the burqa….
useful link:
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/downchart_ukgs.php?year=1980_2011&view=1&expand=40&units=b&fy=2009&chart=40-total_G0-total&bar=1&stack=1&size=m&color=c&title=Welfare%20Spending%20Chart
296.
And your first-hand knowledge of Afghanistan is….?
296 “Pulling out of Afghanistan now is quite possibly the single worst thing the UK Government could conceivably do.”
You’ve set Gordon a challenge there! But I’m sure he will set about proving you wrong - with some gusto…
296.What is the objective in Afghanistan? Is it achievable & at what cost in blood & treasure?
Having weighed up the costs vs the potential benefits for this country, I have concluded it’s not worth it…How did you come to the view that it’s the worst possible thing???
298 - thanks. so health care spending has tripled since 1997.
I almost wish I hadn’t looked
I think the problem with this whole 10% debate is its futility. A 10% cut in everything except DFID and Health will only maintain current total spending levels; after rising welfare and debt interest costs are taken into consideration. That means that with the 10% cut, we will still have the largest most unsustainable budget deficit in the developed world; and will have made no attempt to reduce it.
Therefore the 10% figure is nowhere near to sustainable in the short-term. In reality: 20% is barely enough, combined with serious public sector reform.
295 - Much of the health service cannot be measured with throughput.
Thats why I asked Sally C how she would like to measure whether maternity services have got better.
302 - We’re about mid table in health spending amongst developed countries.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934556.html
302.Debt totals look horrendous as presented. Brown cannot be serious about claiming increases in spending year on year. Bad economics but just as bad politics, you don’t need to be a student of politics/economics to know that this is unsustainable.
303 Yet cuts were not worth a mention - not a single comment or e-mail - on Any Answers. After a huge scoop.
But further comment might embarrass the PM.
Shocking.
300.
Afghanistan: imagine a Russian president had imposed Jeffrey Archer as the UK’s new president, supported by Allen Stanford, Oleg Deripaska, Nick Griffin, Derek Conway and the Kray twins - as well as destroying our traditional forms of government in the process. To ’sweeten’ things a little they are enforcing the rule of the new regime using Albanian troops who regularly kill handfulls of children.
There are actually ’sensible’ pro-western tribal Pashtun leaders, mostly living in exile at the moment because they are likely to be assassinated (or have their families kidnapped) by warlords if they remain in Afghanistan, even supposedly ’safe’ areas. Their chances of returning to Afghanistan while the present US/UK operation continues are zilch.
301. Weakening the Taliban to the point where they are unable to spread their influence into Pakistan, and uable to act as a safe haven for terrorist networks. Before the current initiative was launched, they were solidifying their control deep into the Swat valley, and threatening to get further in. If the Pakistani government fell, it would be of supreme danger to the region, and the cost in treasure and blood (as tragic as that is) is much smaller than the risk of another Iran.
And then there’s also the supreme damage it would do to the special relationship, just when the Americans start listening to Europe and realigning their foreign policy along sensible lines, we bail out on them.
309.
“Weakening the Taliban to the point where they are unable to spread their influence into Pakistan”
Totally back to front. There are actually two ‘Talibans’ , a largely-trial one and a smaller, lethal, mainly-Arab one. The lethal one is already far more established in Pakistan than it ever would become in Afghanistan. There are actually pro-western elements in some of the Afghan tribal Taliban. Why are they fighting the British Army? Because the British Army are using arms to support the corrupt, murderous thugs (including a lot of Uizbeks) who actully run useless Kharzai’s regime for him.
245 “With growth resuming here”
Eh?? Best not believe the propaganda Chris, there won’t be any growth here for many a long month yet. Remember Darling promising just last November that it was set to resume in just four days’ time from now.
Stop laughing at the back there!
304 - Why triple spending on something when you have no idea how well it is doing - or will do after the expense. That’s throwing good money after bad, and shows contempt for the taxpayer, who’s hard earned money is being wasted.
>> Much of the health service cannot be measured with throughput.
I don’t think anybody argues that you must do double the cancer surgeries, deliver twice as many babies etc - that’s clearly nonsense.
But if by tripling the spending all you are effectively doing is increasing the cost of every operation or child birth, with no way of knowing what the outcomes are - how is the patient a year after the operation? Is infant mortality coming down? is there a lower rate of post-operative infection, are cancer operation survival rates increasing, is the nation’s dental health getting better etc. then you are merely wasting money, as you have no idea what effect it will have if any.
If tripling health spending has resulted in a marked increase in cancer survival rates, lower infant mortality, - insert desired outcomes of your choice here - then it is money well spent.
309.What if our presence there was inflaming opinion, thereby creating more Taliban support? They can out wait us, we can’t stay forever. We’ve been there since 2001, if by now we don’t have sufficient numbers of Afghans realising that we are leading them into the light, then perhaps they will revert to darkness, for a period.
Pakistan must be saved by Pakistani’s the great danger is that we are portrayed as the old colonial masters returning to TELL ordinary Pakistani’s how to live. There are sufficient numbers of people doing well enough in Pakistan to stand and fight the Taliban.
Special relationship? are you kidding? That term was abolished when Mr Obama returned the bust of Churchill.
310. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are Arabs? Where did you get that from?
312 - All the increased spending did was get us to mid table for spending on health.
(ignoring the USA basket case who spend more than twice as much as us)
Infant Mortality tends to reflect deprivation rates rather than the efficiency of Maternity Services.
206.
ConHome has a picture of David McLean with a crook. No, not his likely successor as MP but the shepherd’s variety.
311 - We’ll se Peter.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSNYS00517920090626
Me speaker will be pleased.. more announcements in the meedya ..?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8122079.stm
Me = Mr
311.Most reports I’ve seen suggest growth resumes in the 2nd half of this year.
314.
The people who call the shots in the Pakistan Taliban are indeed Arabs or Saudi/Sudan-trained Pakistanis.
316 Speak softly and carry a big stick
Classic Conservatism
320 ..
“The OECD predicts zero growth in the UK economy in 2010, and says the UK budget deficit will reach 14% next year - both worse than UK government estimates.”
Which reports are you quoting ?
313. There will always be an anti-British and anti-American strand of thought in these countries, but the country will not be able to defeat the Taliban on their own. And even if we left, the country is hardly going to become a thriving democracy. There are no easy options in this situation, but the military disruption of the Taliban is far more harmful to them, and outweighs any benefits they get from some inflamation of popular support. We can also win hearts and minds through building of schools and hospitals.
Of course Pakistanis must be involved in the effort to defeat the Taliban, but we have to concentrate on pressuring them from the other side of the border, where Pakistanis can not reach.
As for the bust, do you really expect Obama to keep the image in his office of a man that supported the repression that tortured his grandfather?
318, has Bercow done anything about Balls?
When does Parliament break up? He’s either going to lay down the law, or look utterly toothless.
325 - exactly .. I think they are throwing down the guantlet.. business as usual.
323 - quote from Beeb - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8116234.stm
I’m not one of David Maclean’s fans, but it’s been obvious over the last year or two that his MS condition is getting worse, so that would be a reason to stand down regardless of other considerations. Kali Mountford (who I don’t think has been criticised in the same way as Maclean in the expenses context) is also standing down for similar reasons - she now has difficulty in walking unaided and is obviously in pain.
315 - Yes, I’m all too familiar with US health care, living here.
But I have to say that as a member of the middle class (the ones who upthread are the biggest users of health) my experience is that the system here is much more responsive to my needs. None of this ‘prescriptions only issued Tuesdays and Thursdays between 10 and 11′ nonsense.
The big problem here is the 40-50 million who don’t have insurance, which puts the cost up for us who do and means that they end up going to the ER, which is the most expensive health care of all. Something needs to be done urgently to get them health care.
Guardian on Milburn departure
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/27/mps-expenses
313.
You just don’t get it do you? Quite a few (diminishing every day, sadly) of the non-Arab Talibs are fundamentally quite pro-British and, as far as they are concerned, back their country against the corrupt thug rule which is presently being supported by the British Army. It is far easier to recruit new Talibs in Afghanistan than it was Viet Cong in South VietNam where the regime supported by the ‘west’ was marginally less corrupt than Kharzai’s is.
99. !!!!! That is mindbogglingly and astonishingly appalling, even for this incompetent shower of authoritarian warmongers! They might as well tear up the Magna Carta as well, and repeal the Norman Conquest! FFS! What the **** next?!?
Mildly amusing. I’ve started reading Tony Benn’s diaries, and the entry for the 23rd of October 1954 reads thusly:
“To Bristol for a recording of a programme for the younger generation (18-25 year olds). What emerged was:
1. Great ignorance about Parliament and its work.
2. Cynicism about politicians and their sincerity.
3. Great gap between politicians and young people.
4. No inspiration of young people by politicians.
5. Healthy disregard of politicians’ conceit.
6. Dislike of party or intra-party squabbles except as entertainment.”
Plus ça change!
329 - Canada spends less than half the USA on healthcare and 6% of its population have inadequate access to health services.
In the USA its 40%.
A remarkable achievement by anyones estimation.
For example, according to a 2007 Consumer Reports study on the U.S. health care system, the underinsured account for 24% of the U.S. population and live with skeletal health insurance that barely covers their medical needs and leaves them unprepared to pay for major medical expenses. When added to the population of uninsured (approximately 16% of the U.S. population), a total of 40% of Americans ages 18–64 have inadequate access to health care, according to the Consumer Reports study
316. Isn’t he in a wheelchair these days?
330.
Guardian = Sycophants’R'Us
328.NickP, I didn’t realise that Kali Mountford was also ill, is it MS too?
324.The Taliban is the country - or at least a significant strand inside it. Should we really be intervening in what is essentially a civil war?
We might help Pakistan more by not sending in U.S drones which score small tactical victories at the expense of enraging the population.
As for Churchill, I would think the President could learn many lessons about courage, determination & the power of oratory. The way it was sent back was a disgrace, as was sending Mr Brown away with a few DVDs, almost seemed designed to cause maximum upset.
323.Quite right, 1st half 2010, Mr Darling was saying end of 2009.
339 - the OECD predicts zero growth next year.
340.CBI says growth in 2010
337.
A good friend has suffered MS for the past 3 years - I would not wish it on anyone, including Ms Mountford, for whom we must have compssion as an individual. This cannot be confused, however, with the fact that many of Ms Mountford’s constituents have long-term found her a useless constituency MP, not helped that she was a major Bliar war apologist . On more recent matters, Quentin Letts says (so it has a more than 3.6 per cent chance of being true) that:
“When big-hearted Kali Mountford (Lab, Colne Valley) addressed Mr Martin as ‘my dear friend’ it was time to bury one’s head in one’s arms and boo-hoo like some school bully with a splinter in his thumb.”
“…Miss Mountford thought of Speaker Martin as a stoical saint who never complained about critics….”
“The great thing for Cameron about the approach is that it keeps the focus off Tory policy and makes the election about the incumbent.”
This is the problem with British politics. Cameron has very little to offer other than the fact that he’s something different. One day, when he [probably] becomes PM he will have to show where he’s different - and that’s when the Tories will have a civil war.
338. “Should we really be intervening in what is essentially a civil war?”
When it is a threat to global security, and when they supported the people that killed thousands of civilians, dozens of them Britons, on 911? Yes.
I largely agree with your second statement. Drones should be used sparingly.
As for Churchill, I admire him immensely. But it’s up to Mr. Obama how he decorates his own office, and if you really think any normal person would keep the image of someone who supported the repression of their own family, then you leave something to be desired in the empathy department. What are you talking about in “the way it was sent back”? It was handed over to the British ambassador when the loan was not renewed - standard protocol.
I criticised as much as anyone what happened over the DVD furore, but the idea that the gift was handpicked by the President is laughable. It was clearly incompetence by some staffer in the incoming administration, and Obama’s call to Brown on the plane back shows he was as embarrassed about it as anyone.
343 wishful thinking.. Maybe after 15 yrs in Govt things will get sticky, but early doors, not a chance in hell, not after the 13 yrs they have been through.
334 - I’m not going to bat to defend the current US system. It needs a lot of fixing.
Off to brunch with the family…
TTFN
Re Mr Browns latest wheeze of giving money away to third world countries to spend on climate change. I am correct in believing that we will be required to borrow money which we will then deliver as a gift to a rich third world dictator to supplement his Swiss bank account?
John Redwood - This broken Parliament is part time
I feel another Brownie boomerang curving back to hit him where it hurts politically…The amount of weeks that Parliament is not sitting this year is a disgrace.
We’ve been there 8 years, should we give it another 8, or 10, 20 maybe? If we can’t trust Afghans to keep out the Taliban, why not colonise the place? Of course from an Afghan point of view only 1 side has weapons of mass destruction…and only 1 side has used them.
I think if asked Mr Obama would say the slave owners Washington & Jefferson were great Presidents. You can’t impose 2009 values on historical figures. The way the bust was returned was an insult.
Poor judgement over a gift is small beer however, to the cost in blood & treasure of this ’special relationship’. As a candid friend we need to tell the Americans to withdraw ground troops, provide air support/intelligence/training to the Afghan army. The Americans could reserve the right to bomb any training camp for terrorists.
Ultimately Afghanistan’s destiny must be decided by the people of Afghanistan, not outsiders.
348.
I agree totally with John Redwood on this. Of course the problem would be equally-acute with a Chamereon-Conservative government.
But to see how bad things are already in the 140 days of permitted scrutiny, why not return to Kali Mountford on 21st July 2008 when her ‘challenge’ (sic) to James ‘capital fellow’ Purnell was:
“Will he continue to consult those who understand people who have become comfortable in poverty….”
Not so much window dressing as web-spinning.
329- Yes, those who will pay the biggest price for Obama’s reforms, whatever shape they ultimately take, will be the middle class. The basic result will be this: better care for the poor, same care for the rich who can buy whatever they want (people like Obama), and worse care for the middle class (rationing, waits, fewer tests, less choice, etc.). On top of that, the Dems are threatening to eliminate the tax exemption for health care premiums paid by employers (while maintaining an exemption for Obama’s allies, the trade unions), which would amount to a new tax felt most sharply by the middle class.
O’Gara must have had a bet on 2-0 to the Bok’s. What a complete numpty
344. Vile as the Taliban are/were I can’t really see them as a threat to global security. If they are, then so is the Iranian regime - and to a much greater extent.
The Afghan war was originally about vengeance, and now is about regional power politics. Does it make sense? I’d say its touch and go whether it’s worth the effort.
351 - Why not just move to the Canadian system, halve your spending and increase your healthcare to the 40% who are under or uninsured.
No reason to reinvent the wheel
349.
1. We were in Germany and Japan for decades, and the result of those deployments were extremely successful societies. Effective nation building takes time, and people need to get over the idea that democracy will well forth from the ground.
2. This constant criticism of the American use of nuclear weapons is ridiculously simplified, and I believe it comes from an innate instinct many people have for anti-Americanism. Those bombs saved many more civilian lives than a ground invasion would have cost. Indeed, similar numbers died in the B-29 bombing raids we carried out, but people accept that as being different for some reason.
3. I’m sure if Mr Obama was asked, he would say Churchill was a great leader. But for obvious personal reasons, he did not want to keep that bust in his office. It would be quite reasonable if there was a President whose grandfather had been kept as a slave by Washington or Jefferson to feel the same with regards busts of them. You keep on mentioning “the way it was returned”. What did you dislike so much about this way so much - it seemed like standard diplomatic protocol to me.
4. It seems amazing the number of people who blame us being supposedly enslavened to the special relationships for foreign policy decisions we don’t personally agree with. I opposed the Iraq war, but I still accept Tony Blair thought going in was the right thing to do - he wasn’t forced into it by the US. The current operations in Afghanistan are precisely the same. Whether you agree with them or not, Gordon Brown supports them, and so will David Cameron. Obama himself has referred to our relationship as a “special partnership” since coming to power, and he is fully aware we contribute more troops than other European allies.
5. I completely agree. But government by corrupt elites, be they warlords or the Taliban, is different to a democratic system where the people of Afghanistan get periodically asked who they want to lead them. As corrupt as Karzai’s allies are, and perhaps Karzai himself, his government is the best chance for democracy. Even if that was not the case, there are broader concerns at stake.
Further Goings On In South Carolina
The Love Gov. Mark Sanford is now comparing himself to King David. Who famously sinned yet ruled.
Hummm. South Carolina is chock full of people who are now saying to themselves, “I know King David, I’ve been hearing about him and reading in my Bible since I was a little kid. I know King David. And Governor Sanford, you are no King David.”
Plus the First Lady of SC may be wondering, which of her sons is slatted to fill the role of Absalom?
Note that Mrs Sanford is in slightly better position to influence events that the wives of King David. For one thing, she’s always been the brains and organization and strategy behind their partnership.
She told him to stop seeing his tango partner; that’s the way she says she put it (check out her AP interview in today’s papers, it’s a doozy) it was an order not a request. Then he went ahead and did it, in as stupid a manner as could be contrived, short of being caught in flagrante delicto in a Buenos Aires tango parlor (or Appalachian Trial campsite.)
My fearless prediction: Mrs Sanford is going to nail her erring spouse’s pecker to a Palmetto Tree.
On the Argentina front, New York Times is reporting that the leak of Sanfords email correspondence with his tango partner occured when a young Argentinan who was dating her found the emails and contacted the Columbia, SC newspaper. This occured months ago, but the paper didn’t publish them, because (officially at least) it was working on corraboration.
“WILLIAM REES-MOGG: It’s like 1945 - but this will be a Tory revolution”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1195898/WILLIAM-REES-MOGG-Its-like-1945–Tory-revolution.html
351. Even in that case, I think any mild limitations on the middle class will be of small fry compared to the dramatic improvement that would exist for the poor. Of couse, there are many people in certain American parties who do not feel any concern for the poor, so even if their circumstance was ten times any worsening for the middle class, it would be dismissed from their consideration.
Besides, having a public option which could match the pharmaceutical companies bargaining powers over drug prices would dramatically lower healthcare costs for everyone, middle class included.
20 - the starting point for cuts will be labours own budget which as the IFS point out includes for 7% cuts on dept budgets once inflation and the costs of unemployment are taken into account.
The conservatives have said they will ring fence health which means all the other depts will have to find 10% rather than 7%.
Whoever is in power will have to make cuts - but it will be incredibly difficult to implement them. Once the spending genie is out of the bottle its very difficult to put back. We must hope the national crisis will concentrate minds and start a new mindset. Lets face it - do we feel better, are we better, as a result of this bloated spending?
So the Tories need to think fresh solutions and also get the nation on the side of cuts. Tax reductions might be one carrot also some sort of pensions encouragement ie some of the saving put back into state and private pensions so the more is cut the bigger the contribution we get back.
Pensions are just one bombshell waiting for us a few years down the line.
356. Governor Sanford should take the hit for abandoning his state for a week without any means of contact, but his affair is a personal matter and people should stop seeking political gain out of it.
South Carolina Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 25, 2009
By Rasmussen Reports
1* How closely have you followed recent news stories about Governor Mark Sanford?
68% Very closely
27% Somewhat closely
3% Not very closely
1% Not at all
1% Not sure
2* Should Mark Sanford resign as Governor?
46% Yes
39% No
16% Not sure
3* If Sanford does not resign, should he be impeached and removed from office?
40% Yes
48% No
12% Not sure
4* Do most members of Congress and Governors have extramarital affairs?
33% Yes
25% No
42% Not sure
5* Is Mark Sanford more ethical than most politicians, less ethical than most politicians, or about as ethical as most politicians?
18% More ethical
18% Less ethical
55% About as ethical
9% Not sure
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
“The way the bust was returned was an insult.”
It was, and like the second hand DVDs given to Brown as a gift, deliberately so.
And yet Brown still fawns on Obama at every opportunity.
We should immediately bring our military back from Afghanistan - we’ve spent enough lives and money over the last century let the Americans or Europeans do the dying from now on.
New thread: “Why do part-time MPs get full-time pay?
360 - excuse me, but Mark Sanford has built his entire career on being a santimonious as possible, who demanded the resignation of Bill Clinton and Bob Livingstone on moral grounds.
Along with his extreme fiscal conservatism (a standard certainly not upheld by his official state “trade” visit to Argentina (where he was totally absent from the official schedule for three days) Sanford has made personal moral purity into his very own political Hair Shirt.
IF he applies his own public standards to his own conduct, then he’d already have resigned days ago. Not still be comparing himself to King David.
Not that I’m complaining, mind you. This is almost as good as Blago!
Even though I’m guessing that Jenny Sanford isn’t going to be litterally wallowing in jungle muck the way that Patty Blagojevich is doing on “reality” TV right now.
355.
1.You are comparing the Nazi threat to the..Taliban….I think we need a debate in this country if we are to spend decades there, it doesn’t have public backing.
2.Constant criticism? I stated a fact only 1 country has ever used atom bomb in anger. As for Anti-American, if you look back at previous posts you will find I was a great supporter of the war in Iraq. One of my political heroes is Ronald Reagan - he helped win the cold war without firing a shot.
3.Special Relationship - here have your gift back! He could have avoided controversy by asking permission to loan it to a great US museum/Presidential Library, doesn’t take too much imagination.
4.He has also referred to special partnership with Japan, Israel and Mexico to name but 3.
5.That’s an opinion! If the current leadership is the best chance Afghanistan has, maybe it wouldn’t be so bad to let the taliban back in, and let the Afghans see them for what they are.
6.Strange how you support an invasion of a country where there are no vital British interests, when there is no exit strategy, and which has already cost Billions of Pounds and dozens of lives. Just what would constitute success? converting every taliban supporter into a believer in secularism?
All these ideas for cuts are very worthy but surely it’s just tinkering around the edges. And let’s forget about whether 10% is possible without “affecting front line services”. I’d be happy to affect front line services. What about a dramatic reduction in public spending? Like 50% or 75%? Why should there be tax at all except for things that would never be provided otherwise… roads, defence etc. The reason tax is high is because people expect the government to run everything and to ensure everyone a certain level of income. Why not reduce the role of government and wean people off? We’d ultimately be a lot better for it.
The problem with Labour is it thinks tax and spend is a good thing for its own sake, because they feel happiest with collectivisation. Tories need to take the fight to Labour and make the case for individual effort.