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ComRes has Labour just 11 points behind

June 29th, 2009


CON 36 (-3) LAB 25 (+3) LD 19 (+1)

But the Tories are most trusted when it comes to cuts

There’s a new poll tonight from ComRes for tomorrow’s Indy. The figures are above and although the changes are all within the margin of error they should provide a touch of encouragement for Labour supporters. For they have the party closer than in any poll since Labour’s June 4th elections disaster and if this indeed was the election outcome out then the Tories would barely have a majority.

The great challenge for those trying to bet and predict the next election is the huge variations in seats that relatively small polling shifts produce. The Tories need solid double digit leads to be sure of forming the next government and if other firms start producing figures like these then it could add to the jitters.

ComRes have a new approach to their past vote weighting calculation which regular visitors will know has caused me some concern in the past. I’ll wait to see until I’ve examined how the new process is working in practice before commenting.

In the non-voting findings the Conservatives were found to be trusted by more people than Labour to make the public spending cuts widely expected after the general election. This looks like good news for Cameron who has been making trust in Brown a campaign issue.

Asked which party they trusted most to decide where public spending cuts should be made, 31 per cent said the Tories, 21 per cent Labour and 14 per cent the Liberal Democrats. Some 16 per cent trusted no party, 10 per cent said don’t know and seven per cent named other parties.

UPDATE ComRes weightings

We’ve now got the numbers and the past vote weightings used in this poll were exactly the same as ICM’s. Where ComRes differs from ICM is it’s use of a forced question – “how would you vote if it were a legal requirement” and the fact that it allocates 100% of those saying don’t know in accordance with the party they say they most identify with.

The latter means that quite a number of “votes” are being allocated even though the respondees concerned did not offer a positive choice. Both the measures boost the Labour total more than other parties.

Mike Smithson