Does the sacked ambassador have a chance in Norwich?
June 30th, 2009
Could Craig cash in on the anti-pol mood?
The news that Craig Murray is to stand in the Norwich North by election could really shake up the race and makes the betting quite interesting. Murray came to public attention in 2003 when he was sacked as Britain’s ambassador to Uzbekistan for taking a stance against torture.
He now says that he’s to run in the July 23rd by election on an anti-sleaze ticket which might just capture the public mood.
Craig is a well known blogger and campaigner on freedom issues and might just have the right proposition for this very strange by election which by its very nature is going to be sleaze-centred.
My guess is that he’ll get a mass of media attention and could possibly do well. Certainly he’s a lot more going for him as an independent than the Esther Rantzens of this world.
I think this move could make it that much harder for the Tories to take the seat which is normal circumstances you would have regarded as a certainty.
When Ladbrokes first listed him as a runner the price was 100/1. I got on at 33/1.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“Does the sacked ambassador have a chance in Norwich?”
I say, that’s a bit uncalled for.
Maybe.
Shadsy reported curious bets earlier, including in-store in Norwich.
No chance.
447 from previous thread- Here’s tim as portrayed by the late great Mr. Eddie Albert:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJz-enimjfg
In short - No. No chance whatsover. 5% of the vite tops.
130. “THE WORD “lie” means something very specific. It doesn’t mean a misleading statement, or an exaggeration, or a half-truth: it is a falsehood advanced intentionally and knowingly.”
Both Gordon Brown and Ed Balls have intentionally and knowingly advanced falsehoods on the debt and spending figures. Thus they have both lied.
I think this comment from an anonymous minister sums it up:
“We don’t care if the commentators or the economists turn against us… This is all about shoring up the base in the northern heart-lands, which we lost in the European elections. We don’t want or need them to understand the nuance of the argument. We just want them to hate the Tories again.”
About as much chance as SeanT getting a shag from Robert Smithson !!
Ugh. Hope not. Is he not just going to cut into Green & Lib Dem Guardianista/UEA “academic” support anyway?
5 - wasn’t Eddie also in ‘The Longest day’?
FPT 446 I think you’ll discover that farming subsidies are nothing to do with Tory policy, but the will of the EU - most notably the French.
My farming friends hate the CAP - it makes working hard pointless despite hundreds of years of tradition and 24/7 working.
Very few farmers are in the mould of Brian Alridge - most are like my neighbours - missing fingers, grizzled, jumpers full of holes, old and tired, with kids that don’t want to continue with the family business.
It is heart-breaking.
When these salt of the earth people have gone, we will live to regret it.
Those who sneer should spend a day living this life.
10- He was, in addition to almost every other male actor in Hollywood! But it was a very fitting role for him, as he was a genuine war hero.
The fact that the vote is now only three weeks away must scupper his chances. Most of the electorate will have no idea who he is and I would be surprised if he has the resources to change this in such a short period of time, even considering any media attention he might grab.
I wonder if the surprisingly large amount of money being placed on him is an attempt to create a story which can help raise his profile? Pure speculation on my part.
We’ve taken money on seven different runners in this by-election already, which is noteworthy in itself. Perhaps John Loony can help us out by taking the 1000/1 about his lot?
The Minnesota Supreme Court has ruled that Al Franken has won the US Senate seat against Norm Coleman. If signed off by Gov. Tim Pawlenty it will give the Democrats the 60 votes they need to override fillibusters.
Some stats:
$51.1 million has been raised between Coleman and Franken for the entire campaign
– $50.3 million has been spent between the two candidates
– $11 million (at least) has been spent on the recount
– 2,424,946 votes were cast
– 312 votes separate the candidates (Franken leads)
– 239 days since Election Day 2008
– 34 weeks since Election Day 2008
– 7 months, 27 days since Election Day 2008
– 4 seasons seen since Election Day 2008 election
No chance. There were a couple of candidates in Haltemprice who got good media attention, and derisory votes.
He’s a good lad
12 - Richard Todd got to re-enact the D-Day event he actually took part in (Pegasus bridge)
I’ve wasged a grand sum of £2 at 80/1 on Paddy Power. Seems foolish not to take the best odds around.
But he has no hope anyway.
If anyone read his blog, they would stay at home.
I had high-hopes of him but these proved unfounded.
5. Perceptions differ, obviously.
This is tim in 1997, definitely a man of the soil.
http://www.cbrd.co.uk/people/daniel-hooper/img/01.jpg
I would be surprised if Craig got more than 5% of the vote,
if he looks like he writes probably less.
Has anyone done an estimate of the probable turnout? Seeing that all parties will go hell for leather on this one, it might create an excitement that will see over 60% voting in Norwich North.
My Paddy Power limit is £12.
At 80/1, well worth a punt!
This one is for Easteross and the rest of the posters from Scotland. How many of them had broken the law in Glasgow in their formative years?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8126490.stm
Anyone hear Alan Johnson’s surreal logic on PM tonight.
On ID Cards: - (07:15, PM show 30/06/09) “If you try and compel people ….. it actually is counter productive whereas if you explain the benefits and encourage and make it a voluntary process you will get a far bigger take up and a better reaction”
Now i wholeheartedly agree that not forcing everyone to carry an ID card will be a more popular for the government, but I dont see how he can argue that you will get a bigger take up than everyone. It’s just not possible. I suppose he may argue that mass civil disobedience may have reduced ID card implementation, but it doesnt say much about it as a policy in the first place.
Simple maths seems to be a problem for Labour.
Compulsory ID cards = 100%
Voluntary = x
Now unless some people want to stump up two lots of £30 pound or they release some sort of panini ID card album I cannot see how x will be greater than 100%.
23, a Labour minister unable to grasp basic numbers and present them in an honest way?
I am shocked.
23 Presumably everyone currently registered for multiple postal votes under different identities will need an ID card for each - that’s how you go over 100%
He might do quite well. The evidence is overwhelming that both the Labour and Tory party are unpopular. As for the Lib Dems….I’m more ashamed of thinking Clegg would be a good leader than thinking Obama had no chance of becoming president. David Baily said of his 30 conquests “Why would a politician want to advertize his underachievement?”
What does your change of handle mean? Nemtynakht = formerly known as ChrisP
Are you a crack Countdown contestant with just two vowels?
Murray has no chance.
The only winner besides the Tories would be an Anti Pol figure standing for the Lib Dems.
If Clegg had persuaded Joanna Lumley to stand she’d have walked it.
As it is if the Tories don’t win this the odds on a Hung Parliament look very good indeed.
I was so annoyed - I have been shaking my head all night in incedulity, not just at the above but also trying to claim they never wanted it to be compulsory - why invest the political capital all this time.
Eddie Mair skewered him with the the relatively easy open goal that Brown had said it was the backbone of the anti terror program - therefore we now have a spineless anti terror program.
Murray hasn’t got a hope. Like Jill Saward, he will make minimal impression.
Meanwhile the extraordinary amalgam of chaos, confusion, blatant lies and absurd pie in the sky claims that is the government continues…
Not been around for a while but had to post that today. Try and check in from time to time but volume of pots is too much normally, and you can only take so much of Spinbots like Tim blaming everything on Thatcher.
The name stems from when 2 other people called Chris were posting on the same thread it all got confusing. I asked for help for a new name and somebody suggested Nemtynakht which has some sort of egyptian background, and I thought it was as good as anything else.
On topic- don’t think this guy will have much of a chance to be honest. It may affect the vote share but probably not the outcome as he would probably take votes from every party.
No.
28 and then you woke up stuck to the sheets.
Hmm, very attractive.
31 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eloquent_Peasant
“British citizens will never be forced to carry ID cards, the Government announced today.”
And so it begins, another humiliating U-turn for the Government. An unpopular authoritarian act imposed with maximum negative impact, then clumsily dropped with minimum positive gain.
Brown’s hands are all over this stupidity.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1196561/Compulsory-ID-cards-scrapped-Government-performs-humiliating-U-turn.html
29. Johnson was lying, as is the norm with Labour MPs these days. He said he didn’t think anyone had ever claimed ID cards were some sort of panacea for tackling terrorism.
Well I’m sorry Alan, but I and many others must have misheard literally dozens of people speaking for the government over the years. Clearly when your lot were making such a big deal about ID cards and painting the opponents as silly liberals inadvertently aiding the terrorists, what you actually meant is that ID cards might be useful to prove your age when being served in a pub.
If Johnson is your best bet Labour then you are well and truly f*cked.
The purge of any and all opposition in Iran has begun, as the country retreats further into totalitarianism:
“Iran’s ruling clerics closed ranks around President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday, hailing him as a “champion” amid signs that he may have begun purging his government of anyone perceived as an opposition sympathizer…
A sense of resignation mingled with indignation settled over supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Iran’s embattled opposition leader, whose insistence that massive fraud robbed him of victory in the June 12 presidential election touched off two weeks of violent street clashes between protesters and police…
Three senior Oil Ministry officials with loose ties to Mousavi were fired, the independent news agency Fararu reported. All three were prominent members of ex-President Mohammad Khatami’s government and reportedly were allies of another former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Both former presidents were considered to be backers of Mousavi’s bid for the presidency.”
[article can't be linked here]
It’s sad that so many good people had to die needlessly in this uprising promoted by Mr. Mousavi, a man who proved to be not up to the task. Things will now be worse inside Iran than they have been in many years, and Iran’s posture toward the outside world will be more intransigent than ever as they try to prove their strength in standing up to the “meddlers.” For Obama and other Western leaders, the timing could scarcely have been worse.
36
Johnson is a liar:
“Wednesday, 04, Jul 2007 12:00
Gordon Brown has affirmed his government’s commitment to identity cards as he called for all-party action against terrorism.
In his first prime minister’s questions since assuming the leadership, Mr Brown urged MPs across the House to back the government’s anti-terror proposals.
He voluntarily confirmed that he would continue to push for ID cards as the backbone of any anti-terror policy.
There had been quiet speculation the new prime minister would abandon his predecessor’s controversial plans for a national identity database and ID cards.
Instead, he called on MPs across the house to approve planned ID legislation, amid repeated calls for a unified response to terror.
It is “vitally important” the “message is sent out to rest of the world that we will stand strong, steadfast and united in the face of terror,” the prime minister said. ”
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/policing-and-crime/brown-commits-to-id-cards-$475660.htm
14 - “The Minnesota Supreme Court has ruled that Al Franken has won the US Senate seat against Norm Coleman. If signed off by Gov. Tim Pawlenty it will give the Democrats the 60 votes they need to override fillibusters.”
Gov. Pawlenty has already announced he will abide by decision of Minnesota Supremes.
So Franken is in, unless and until he’s booted out by the federal courts. Which isn’t going to happen, based on the actual facts and evidence and law extensively created, reviewed & relied upon by Mn courts.
The other thing I noticed in yesterdays 5 year plan is that Targets are no longer good. Ifeel like I am in 1984. This government has argued for years that targets are the only means of driving up standards and they have meployed an army of bureaucrats in teh NHS, Local Education Authorities and other public bodies just to administrate this.
I fully agree with their decision to let profeesional people make professional decisions but it seems to be quite a u turn. When did they have their damascene conversion to sanity.
I’d say his name-recognition isn’t high enough. Indeed, it barely exists.
Have any studies been made into the circumstances in which independent candidates succeed and those in which they flop? (I guess one would need to distinguish between different types of independent: local campaigners are maybe a different phenomenon to the celebrity anti-badness type.)
Terror seems to have receded, save for Brown et al in terror of being defeated.
Liam Byrne, characterized on this site earlier today as one of the good guys in the cabinet for not following the Tory 10% cuts line, has blotted his copybook this evening. Said Osborne’s request to see the books was an attempt to divert attention away from the Tory cuts. Oh, and Gordon deserves an apology from him for saying he refused access. Apparently it was the “neutral” civil service that said “No”.
Let us compare the ONS economic figures from May 2009 to those of May 2009 to see how Gordon the Great has transformed the UK economy:
Unemployment
1997 2.050 million
2009 2.261 million
CPI inflation
1997 1.6%
2009 2.2%
Balance of trade
1997 2.039 billion surplus
2009 8.267 billion deficit
Public sector borrowing
1997 3.822 billion
2009 19.861 billion
Industrial output base 2003=100
1997 99.3
2009 88.2
Manufacturing employment
1997 4.528 million
2009 2.942 million
Public sector employment
1997 6.676 million
2009 8.145 million
FTSE100
1997 4435
2009 4249
Sound economic fundamentals?
Airport workers now won’t be forced to get an ID card.
But previously the government had told us that compulsory cards for airport workers were essential for security.
Was the government telling great big whopping porkies then?
44. That should of course be ‘compare May 1997 to May 2009′.
45 - so it was merely a flight of fancy
44 The economic miracle in numbers
Remember ‘no more boom and bust’
35. I wouldn’t trust that ID-card u-turn for an instant. While the project to introduce the cards remains, they can be made compulsory again whenever the government desires (such as, say, 0000.1 seconds after being re-elected).
38 - Well done on the detective work, odd that The Government doesn’t ‘get’ the internet.
The forth estate has increased exponentially and is not beholden to anyone, every lie comes back to haunt them…. In about two minutes flat.
Punter, if you’re out there, here’s a New Jersey governor’s race update. On the last poll, which showed Chris Christie up by 12 points, I cautioned to treat it with some due suspicion because it was done by a GOP pollster.
Well, here’s a new poll by a pollster for the Dems, and it shows almost the same numbers as the previous GOP poll:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html
Interestingly, both polls put Christie at 51%, with the only difference being in Corzine’s numbers (41% vs. 39%). I think, in light of these two polls, it’s pretty safe to say that Corzine is way behind at this stage of the race.
47 - It was a ‘pilot’ scheme
“British citizens will never be forced to carry ID cards, the Government announced today.”
Labour’s ultimate aim is compulsion, whatever they say today.
Don’t get fooled again.
ot did anyone hear Ed Balls on the Today programme this morning? He was absolutetly at his odious worst. shouting over the interviewer, saying the Tories this, the Tories that,
THE ONLY PEOPLE THE TORIES WANT TO HELP ARE THE RICHEST 3000 FAMILIIES !!!
LABOUR WILL SPEND MORE AND DEBT WILL COME DOWN!!!
Lol if this is the latest line from the bunker, for an audience as sophisticated as the Today programme, when its patent rubbish, things really are dire. Balls sounded deranged. Swivel eyed nutcase that he is.
More Balls please on the TV and radio. He’s so fully lost it, his appearances must be great for the Tory lead in the polls.
- and ID cards were both a dessert topping AND a floor wax!
From the mail article referenced above
“In August 2005 Tony McNulty, the Minister in charge of the scheme, apologised for ‘overselling’ its benefits.
He admitted in a private Whitehall seminar: ‘Perhaps, in the past, the Government in its enthusiasm oversold the advantages of identity cards.
‘We did suggest, or at least implied, that they may well be a panacea for identity fraud, benefit fraud, terrorism, entitlement and access to public services.
‘Perhaps we ran away with it in our enthusiasm. I apologise for us overselling the case for ID cards.’”
Democratic money man George Soros has some surprisingly depressing comments about the state of the U.S. economy which are quoted in this article about the sudden unexpected dip in consumer confidence:
“U.S. consumer confidence took an unexpectedly steep slide in June, figures released on Tuesday showed, suggesting the 18-month-long recession had yet to loosen its grip on the economy.
A separate report on April house prices in major cities offered some encouraging signs that the worst of the housing slump may be over, but that was not enough to lift investors’ spirits. Another crop of economic data showed business activity in New York City and the Midwest remained weak, while retail chains slogged through a rough June.
Billionaire investor George Soros added to the cautionary tone, saying that rising borrowing costs posed a threat to any eventual economic recovery. “As markets revive, fear of inflation will drive up interest rates, which will choke off recovery,” he said at a breakfast hosted by the Wall Street Journal.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gloomy-US-consumers-clip-rb-2688130524.html?x=0&.v=1
52 - nice one
The government really thought the scheme would take off.
O/T –
Can it be possible for Sarah Palin to be revealed to be any more bonkers?
YES SHE CAN!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky/2009/jun/30/sarah-palin-vanity-fair
45 The supposed downgrading of the ID card scheme to non compulsory just like the apparent “public” Iraq enquiry, just like Ed Balls debt reductions are all mirage’s.
In practice ID cards will be compulsory, In practice the Iraq inquiry will be in private. In practice debt levels are rising not falling.
49. But what are we to make of the other bizarre announcement of today, viz. the teacher ‘licensing system’?
After some months of toeing the Teachers’ Union/leftwing activists line, Balls engages in a weird Daily Mail-style policy lurch.
Just what kind of voter is Labour trying to attract?
test
58 - Will we ever see the like again?.
Great Betting opportunities and great comedy all at the same time.
11 Plato “When these salt of the earth people have gone, we will live to regret it.
Those who sneer should spend a day living this life.”
Great post, Plato!
Whilst we argue about the minutiae of politics, and fret about whether we can afford luxuries, farmers get on with the job of producing one of the few things in life that really are absolutely necessary.
44 Those figures from another richard - for which thank you, richard - are simply damning. At all kinds of level, I can’t quite believe that we’re so calmly allowing this failing and inept government to stay in office until they’ve finally run out of landmines to sow along the Tories’ path to power.
On thread, I don’t think Craig Murray has much chance of winning but he could certainly muddy the waters. Perhaps that is his intention.
60. “Just what kind of voter is Labour trying to attract?”
Amnesiacs.
14 Tim B
The 60 seats thing is a myth, even if the Democrats were a united voting bloc (which they certainly aren’t).
Byrd and Kennedy are too ill to ever come to Washington and vote.
51 - S&S, those are indeed good numbers for yer man Double-Chris. The two polls you cite validate each other and tell exactly same story: Chris Christie has a good shot, but victory is far from inevitable.
Of course that’s not really news. Polls just confirm what folks already knew. Another confirmation was the way congressional Dems dusted up CC at that committee hearing. Of course that didn’t hold a candle to the secret Pat Roberston University initiation rights for US attorneys practiced under reign of Alberto Gonzales. But it did show that Dems don’t like Christie’s (good) prospects and potential (if not yet likelihood) of taking out incumbent and les-than-universally-beloved Gov. Jon “Leadfoot” Corzine.
66 - which is why the democrats have on occasion had to scramble madly to get people there. One more will ease the pressure a bit. Of course it all depends how much of a rebel Franken turns out to be.
“The majority required to invoke cloture is three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn, or 60 votes if there are no vacancies in the Senate’s membership.
However, invoking cloture on a measure or motion to amend the Senate’s rules requires the votes of two-thirds of the Senators present and voting, or 67 votes if all 100 Senators vote.”
67- Leadfoot! It is interesting that Corzine uses his car crash to build sympathy for himself (he mentioned it in his speech the night he won the uncontested Democratic primary last month), but of course there’s no mention of the circumstances of the crash and injuries. If I were him, I wouldn’t mention it at all.
67 - he was not wearing a seat belt if I recall…
66- Once Byrd and Kennedy depart the Senate, whether by resignation or in a box, the Democrats of their respective states (governor in WV, legislature in MA) can replace them with some young left-wing blood which will be able to reliably attend, vote, and prevent filibusters.
68- Franken won’t be a rebel in an ideological sense. He proved that when he was unsuccessfully attempting to become the left-wing version of Rush Limbaugh. He also viscerally hates Republicans and is never afraid to say it. He may have a quirky issue here or there, but he’ll have no inclination to diverge from the main ideological course of the Democratic Party and he certainly won’t be working with the GOP on anything.
23 - your comments on Johnson and ID cards are correct.
But if ID cards are so important why are they not compulsory. What is the point of spending billions and then not having people have them??
None of course. Which is why at some later date - by the back door - the govt will invent so many conditions that we will end up having to buy (if not carry) them.
A complete and utter shambles.
Re Norwich North who wins this by election is not important. If the entrance of an independent cuts the tory majority or if he wins it himself it matters little. Its labour losing a safe seat that is the story.
And re previous thread — at last (!!) someone has woken up to the fact that Mandelson is a numpty. A smooth talking uncious numpty, but a numpty all the same.
“Gordon Brown is not building Britain’s future, he’s spending it
Gordon Brown’s ‘new’ policies are already out of date, says Irwin Stelzer.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5700986/Gordon-Brown-is-not-building-Britains-future-hes-spending-it.html
72 - I watched ‘Chicken Run’ again a few weeks back, and Mandelson is a dead ringer for Mrs Tweedy.
Live video feed of Coleman press conference
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/47376592.html
72 “Re Norwich North who wins this by election is not important. If the entrance of an independent cuts the tory majority or if he wins it himself it matters little. Its labour losing a safe seat that is the story.” Yes and no. Yes Labour are getting stuffed but Glasgow North East safe it is not. No because Labour will spin it as a plague on all your Houses story. If they spun it that way whenever the Lib Dems won a seat off them then treble it with Murray. But who will he hurt. TBH I think it’ll be the Greens and Lib Dems more than anything. I can’t see Murray appealing too much to the bedrock Tory support in the wards outside the City. IMO he won’t stop the Tories winning but he could affect the running order behind them.
40 - For ‘Target’ read ‘Entitlement’
60. “Just what kind of voter is Labour trying to attract?”
Amnesiacs.
by b. June 30th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
That is one of the best posts ever. Very true, very funny.
ID cards - add that to the long list of things where with some better planning, Gordon could have got some credit fro moving his position. Instead, it has to be dragged out of him, in a begrudging manner that gives all the credit to his political opponents.
The bottled election, “no more boom and bust”, ID cards, Gurkhas, 10p tax band, Iraq inquiry, Iraq withdrawl, Blears and Smith’s removal from the Cabinet - all done with a totla absence of adroit thinking. The same will have to happen with the Labour investment/10% Tory cuts line.
Brown really is surrounded by the lamest bunch of politicians.
Murray was sacked by a Labour government, so presumably his campaigning will be essentially anti-Labour. He’s likely to knock a few votes off the Labour tally and could gain some libertarian votes from the Lib Dems. Whether these votes would have gone to the Conservatives in Murray’s absence is difficult to say.
80. He is apparently standing on an anti-sleaze ticket. The campaign slogan is something like “put an honest man into parliament”
75- Coleman has now conceded according to the US Newswires.
71. How long until the next WV Gubernatorial? The way that State is swinging towards the GOP it must be a very likely pick up and even if not if any Democratic nominee wants a ghost of a chance either running for it or running for re-election he’s hardly likely to be able to or want to appoint a Ted Kennedy. Dose of reality Stars.
Fox News scored all 10 of the top 10 cable news shows for the 2nd quarter:
http://schotline.wordpress.com/2009/06/30/fox-news-records-unprecedented-top-10-out-of-10-programs-in-cable/
This represents their best showing ever. I hope they thank Obama; they couldn’t have done it without him.
81. not sure how that goes down when he is up against a couple of ladies.
54 I think Balls has just decided to lie whenever it’s useful. Liam Byrne also seems to be taking this tack, and of course Brown has long done so. It’ll be interesting to see if any of the other Labour ministers start to get uncomfortable with this.
I guess that the trio above will never again hold office once the next election is over, whoever wins.
Coleman’s statement
Senator Norm Coleman today made the following statement at his home in St. Paul:
“Ours is a government of laws, not men and women. The Supreme Court of Minnesota has spoken and I respect its decision and will abide by the result. It’s time for Minnesota to come together under the leaders it has chosen and move forward. I join all Minnesotans in congratulating our newest United States Senator – Al Franken.
“Just a few last words about my legal challenge. Sure, I wanted to win. Not just for myself but for my wonderful supporters and the important values I have always fought for. I also thought it was important to stand up for enfranchising thousands of Minnesotans whose votes weren’t counted like the others were. After all, issues and politicians come and go, but voting is fundamental.
“It is the essence of democracy so I knew we needed to do everything we could to get it right.
“I am forever grateful and humbled by the people of Minnesota who have given me the honor to represent them – and even more grateful for their wisdom, courage, patience and understanding over these past several months.
“The path that I take in the future is not nearly as important today as the path that we must now — all travel on together — to strengthen our state and our nation.
“I have never believed that my service is irreplaceable. We have reached the point where further litigation damages the unity of our state, which is also fundamental. In these tough times, we all need to focus on the future. And the future today is we have a new United States Senator.
“I congratulate Al Franken and his victory in this election. He now enjoys the advantage that our Congressional Delegation has over the other 525 people on Capitol Hill: he represents Minnesota.
“I know the great ideas, the amazing work ethic and the historic ability to come together to get things done in this state will help him greatly, as it has me.
“Speaking of which, I think we all should take a moment to thank Amy Klobuchar and her staff. They have done a great job of carrying the burden of two Senators these last six months. She is an extraordinary public servant.
“I don’t reach this point with any big regrets. I ran the campaign I wanted. I conducted the legal challenge I wanted. And I have always believed you do the best you can and leave the results up to a higher authority. I’m at peace with that. As to my future plans, that’s a subject for another day.
“We live in a great country and a great state. We can all have confidence that by some path we don’t yet know – one which we can all come together to lay out – we will arrive at the better future we all seek.
“Thank you and may God bless Minnesota and America.”
I hope their is no recount in the UK that goes on for so long
82 At a couple of days shy of eight months before he would concede, does that make Coleman the Sorest Loser Ever?
84 Or Bush for the others or Clinton for Fox before that. Yawn Stars whoever is out of the White House sees their ratings rise as their supporters are appealed to by the bare knuckle politics of opposition.
Paul Waugh has some info on how labour’s made its sums add up on Brown’s Grand Design…
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/06/forget-the-spending-review-heres-labours-cuts-today.html
83- The next race for governor in West Virginia will be in 2012. It would be a long shot for a Republican to win a Senate seat in West Virginia, but you are right that the state has changed a lot in the last ten or fifteen years and a GOP pickup opportunity can’t be completely ruled out in light of that development.
Trouble is, the state is overwhelmingly Democratic at the state level and is only beginning to warm to Republicans at the national level. The still strong Democratic tilt of the state in all but presidential races would very likely make a Democrat the winner of an open seat Senate race in that state (with the Dems even more favored if it’s an incumbent appointee running for re-election).
The Republicans’ best shot would be Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, a current U.S. House member, who is the only Republican currently in the West Virginia congressional delegation. Without any information about candidates, I would give an appointed Democratic Senator in West Virginia 1/3 odds of re-election, or possibly better.
22 Dr Spyn,
I have never seen the Life of Brian.
76 - I think he might appeal more to the disaffected Guardian readership type vote in the seat. It that happens it will could dilute the Labour vote which in turn helps the anti-Labour opponents.
84 - that must leave CNN panic-ing in their shorts….
89- Ten out of ten is spectacular for any one network, not just your run-of-the-mill ratings increase.
91 Only if that appointee is anything other than the Ted Kennedy typ appointee you’re predicting. If the Democrats are that stupid then the GOP will have a great shot but I don’t think even you genuinely think they’d pick a foaming at the mouth out and out leftwinger of their party just to gift the state to the GOP.
Conspiracy 7/7 whack job programme on BBC2 is fun.
Craig Murray will not harm the Tory vote at all. Those who voted Tory in 1997, 2001 and 2005 now see a chance to kick Labour out. they are not going to risk that.
At worst Murray may depress the increase in the tory vote. He will attract votes from disaffected Labour voters who would never vote Tory. He might push Labour into 3rd place.
What sort of Tory majority would be achieved if a Crewe swing takes place?
I see Labour are frit in Glasgow NE. Hardly surprising really.
On topic:
Apologies if this has been mentioned before but the date of the by-election coincides with the first week of the school holidays in Norfolk. Could that perhaps have some impact?
Elsewhere from Sky - BA have just announced that they intend to cut 5000 staff and freeze pay for 2 years.
On the debt crisis, I found this interesting - from the FT:
A tax package to raise £70bn ($115bn, €82bn), probably the minimum required to stabilise Britain’s public finances, might put four points on the rate of income tax, take VAT to 20 per cent, freeze personal allowances and tax thresholds, add five points to corporation tax and collect a bit of extra revenue from the usual suspects such as alcohol, petrol and cigarettes.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8d6b4c6-659d-11de-8e34-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
All thanks to the our caring Labour Government. Cheers Gordon…..
44 Those statistics are utterly damning. At every level, Labour will hand on a worse economy than it inherited.
71 West Virginia seems to be heading Republican at a rate of knots. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a Republican win an open Senate race, when Byrd goes.
On topic, I think the best Murray can hope for is to save his deposit. The Greens will pick up most people who’d otherwise vote for him.
96- I’m sure the appointment in West Virginia would go to whomever is in the greatest favor of the governor, who makes the appointment. West Virginia is very old school, and it’s all about relationships and connections. It would not be a strategic appointment calculated to keep the seat (the Dems would presume they could keep the seat anyway, regardless of whom they appoint).
98 Frit or clever? The lessons of the quick By Election of Glasgow East and the play it long one of Glenrothes must have been blindingly obvious as far as they were concerned. As for NN see 76.
102. It also keeps the option open of an autumn GE.
I have no doubt Labour have written Norwich North off and will say it is Gibsons expenses.
Even if Labour lost the by - election but it was after the party conference i dont see any use in anyone challanging Brown. It is all about survival!
102 - I think it’s possible the problem with the “long” by-election for Norwich North (and even Glasgow NE) is that they would have been very long indeed.
As they were both caused by resignations, the by-election writ could only be moved while the Commons is in session. Since the House goes for recess in a few weeks time, it would have meant it would be October before the writ is moved.
103. I am refering to Glasgow:
Even if Labour lost the by - election but it was after the party conference i dont see any use in anyone challanging Brown. It is all about survival!
97 - Tim, I waiting for the denouement when it is revealed that Tony Blair had given each of the bombers their rucksacks.
101 It would not be at least partially? Oh really do you think the DNC is just going to sit idly by and drop the seat into the GOP’s lap. Really Stars I think you are blinded a little. That said as 100 says WV is swinging your way fast putting it in play. As for the National/State split well that used to be said of Texas etc. Once the state swings nationally the locals aren’t usually very far behind don’t you think.
106 - don’t be ridiculous - it’s on the BBC. It will be David Cameron who did it
100- If Shelley Moore Capito ran, it would be a real race. Otherwise, a likely Dem win.
102 - now looking back to Glenrothes, to be frankly the SNP campaign was hopeless. I think they have learnt their lesson from that one. Events as the Banking crisis at it did during the campaign helped Brown. What will come along this time to help him?
O/T But Nick Robinson is getting a right kicking on his blog, after he wrote “Pressed on why the country should trust him - a young and privileged man - with this task, the shadow chancellor replies….”
as part of his piece on Tory Cuts.
http://tinyurl.com/ngg797
Sainsburys are moving from Think 21 to Think 25.
In other words, all customers who look under 25 will have to prove they are at least 18 years old in order to buy booze.
How to prove one’s age?
111
and deservely so Disraeli. Its an apalling piece of bias. Did Tim write it for him?
107- I call them as I see them. But I do find it entertaining that I’m accused of pro-GOP bias while also being accused of downplaying Republican opportunities. I would think my highly accurate 2008 predictions for White House, House and Senate might give me some degree of credibility anyway.
I don’t doubt that the day will come when Republicans will do quite well in West Virginia up and down the ballot, but that day hasn’t arrived yet.
And I don’t know why you think I believe the DNC will stand by idly while they lose the seat. I said nothing of the kind.
92. Do you know Gerry Adams, whilst he was a prisoner of war dont you know, has spoken many times of an incident when prisoners in his wing started singing Always Look on the Bright Side of Life from said movie, after a rather brutal confrontation with the guards.
Truly a wonderful illustration of the wit, bravery and humour of these freedom loving souls after theyd been beaten up. Unfortunately at the time of the incident the song hadnt even been released….
Never let reality get in the way of a good propaganda story eh Gerry.
Plank.
106 - Dr Naseem, at Birmingham Central Mosque is one of Craig Murrays supporters
As a Norwich resident (allbeit Norwich South) I can’t see where this guy is going to cut into the Tory vote.
Any votes he take will be from Lab, Lib or Greens. IMO this increases the Tories chances of taking the seat.
Someone has posted on Robinson blog that his Missus works for Gordon Brown.. Is this true?
115 Perhaps they should have stuck him up on a cross, and given him the chance to sing it.
114 I remember some fascinating comments from you and SSI last year. Several Southern legislatures have remained strongly Democrat (albeit, in some cases Democrat in name only), even as the inhabitants vote Republican for President, Senate, and Governor. Surely, that’s the way West Virginia is heading.
Here’s a little factoid about the stability of Conservative support that I’ve found very interesting.
Taking all polls with a midpoint date within the last 90 days, this is the median figure for each pollster for Conservative %age:
YouGov - 40% (11 polls)
ICM - 40% (5 polls)
Ipsos MORI - 40% (3 polls)
Populus - 39% (5 polls)
ComRes - 39% (6 polls)
The median value across all pollsters (30 polls) is 40%. They’re definitely down a few percentage points from earlier in the year, but I think 40% or above is a very safe bet in a General Election at this stage.
111 Poor old Robbo’s received a right Royal battering in the ring this evening for his latest blog. A few posters have even managed to slip his ‘Toenails’ nickname past the censors beady eye.
The political environment is getting to just the right point where Liberal Democrat defections to the Tories take place amungst MPs.
The recent LD PPC defection to Labour shows it may not be a one direction set of defections either. Nevermind LD replacing Labour, that eager LD just joined them and left the Pious party.
LD MPs must realise that with the £2.4 Million Michael Brown donation inquiry by the Police the Next Election is going to cause some very discomforting results for the LD even against a weakened Labour Led by Gordon Brown. A LD heading for certain defeat against the Tories may for instance defect to Labour and stand in Burnley should the incumbant not contest the election due to expenses. That would certainly Shot the LD fox and provide the LD to Labour defector with a good seat in parliament! I always think that LD Bob Russell looks like a Socialist, so he could be the defector rejoining his Labour roots! He stood for Labour in 1979!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/essex/content/images/2006/01/12/bob_russell_203_203×152.jpg
111 That is a serious kicking for Mr Robinson, wonder when he will change tack ?!!
112 Which supermarket owning family funds the labour party?
111 Who needs Labour Party Political Broadcasts when we have Nick Robinsons worldview. Note it is important to pin down the opposition on their spending when the government in possession of all the facts and levers of power wont even outline their own.
114 Your view that Democratic Governor could find no one who was no one from anything but the far left of the Democratic Party who was not also acceptable to them would imply as much. The DNC would surely apply all the levers they could to achieve satisfy both. Re GOP bias no idea but I do think you are missing GOP strength in this race. I think the Texas point holds. A state that swung ten points towards the GOP in the best Democratic year since 1964 with a Senator there for decades who must have a huge personal vote. I think those points indicate good times for the GOP and that Dems had better stick right to the middle with their next man.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/5700020/German-court-delays-Lisbon-Treaty.html
German courts hate the European Constitution.
119 Texas Alabama etc certainly haven’t. It’s not a given.
125 I think they’d better find the most right wing Democrat they can to hold it. Otherwise, they’re sunk.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8126101.stm
Questions over MP clean up bill…
A peerage for Mr Marin
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2517425.0.Row_erupts_over_peerage_for_disgraced_exSpeaker.php
from memory, due to a quirk of the system, with being made a Lord, then a writ can be moved during the recess?
106 - The denouement appears to be that the people behind the conspiracy theory are seriously unhinged.One of whom thinks he is Jesus Christ.
What a shock.
130 - marcia - but didn’t Michael Martin resign first?
119- West Virginia does seem to be moving down the trail that was once blazed by states like Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, etc., but yet the very fact that it is doing so in its own time and not in step with those other states has to give you pause in drawing the parallel.
West Virginia should be primarily looked at as a poor, blue-collar, working-class, pro-union, traditional state. As you probably know, there are a lot of conservative-seeming folks in the U.S. who are strongly pro-union and accordingly strongly pro-Democrat. West Virginia fits this mold probably better than any other state, Michigan included. As I said, my best guess is that the state will continue to trend to the GOP, but not necessarily as quickly as you might think. The congressional representation should start to go Republican before the state legislature will, though, of that I’m pretty certain.
Cohen to stand down :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5699352/Labour-MP-Harry-Cohen-quits-after-MPs-expenses-scandal.html
112 - as a resident of Georgia, which has some odd alcohol laws: you can’t buy alcohol on a Sunday, and several counties outside Atlanta don’t serve it on Sunday, until recently you couldn’t buy wine mail order out of state and have it shipped in, etc.
The usual method of finding out if you’re 21 is a drivers license, or some other government ID. Some places card you if they think you look a bit young. Other places (some restaurants) card everyone, and I mean EVERYONE. I’ve seen nonogenarians in wheelchairs carded. If you work at a bar, or a restaurant that serves alcohol you have to have a ‘license to pour’
On the good side you can get 1.75 liters of cheap scotch (like Ballantines) and get change from $20, so it’s not all bad
This toenails stuff is tiresome.
Nick Robinson formerly chaired the Young Conservatives, and his BBC appointment was attacked by Labour figures. Is there any actual evidence that he now favours Labour?
136 - his posts? His reports? His general attitude?
132 - I thought I read somewhere in the last month that because he was given a peerage even after resigning then a writ could be moved. That is why I questioned my remark. I shall look up the Sunday Herald where I think I read an article on that.
128- Again, I think you’re extrapolating too much from West Virginia’s presidential vote. West Virginia, like the old Dixie states, is politically tricky and has to be evaluated on its own terms.
136 Comedian Alert
136
Toenails is a nickname, and whether he was a Young Conservative is irrelevant. He deserves the kicking he is getting 100%
Do twll us what posts of an inquistorial nature there have been on Nick Robinsons blog of late about the Govt being untruthful about cuts.. I will tell you to save you from looking it up. Save from the OECD post there has been nothing.
112 Sainsbury’s management is losing the plot. If a product can be sold legally to 18 year olds, this latest move is going to annoy a very large number of 18 - 25 year olds who are trying to buy something entirely lawfully. They’ll also annoy some doddery old ladies (such as OldMotherHubbard) who will now be held up in the queue even longer while waiting for approved identification to be produced and for the resulting altercations to subside. I would have thought that 18 - 25 year olds were the very age group that Sainsbury’s should be trying to get into the Sainsbury’s habit. Instead, the reverse is happening and they’re losing at least one DOL - I’m off to Tesco in future.
On reflection, I blame the Government for this, however. It’s this Government which has fostered the do-gooding, know-besting mindset which makes it okay for some of our citizens not only to decide what is good for the rest of us but also to enforce their decisions, often with an air of such condescending moral superiority that it leads me to fantasise about walloping the perpetrators with my walking stick.
On thread, do we yet have the complete list of candidates for Norwich North? I make it eight. Is that right?
136 – John L, have you used the link provided to Nick’s blog, have you read any of the comments there, have you formed any opinions yourself on the blog topic or the words written by Nick?
Thought not.
142.OMH - Try ten so far…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwich_North_by-election,_2009#Candidates
141. His blog post was not that bad after you got past about 4 micro paragraphs but his TV performance just now was not acceptable. The opposition cannot give figures as the Government have scraped the comprehensive spending review and the current figures are out of date!
I dont like the way Robinson goes on about the Tories either - if Labour are in opposition after the election assuming Robinson is still in the job will he call Labour the Socialists
100/107- One other note: it took decades from the time that the Dixie states started voting GOP for president to the time that their congressional delegations finally shifted red. Their state legislatures have only partially shifted Republican (i.e., the shift is still in progression).
133 - The map of where the republican vote is growing mirrors areas with poor educational outcomes.
http://blogs.creativeloafing.com/freshloaf/files/2008/11/map.png
I’ve sunk to a new low. I’m agreeing with Tim!
142. You dont think the Sainsburys move is connected to ID Cards
145 - Spandex again?
136 ‘Tiresome’ nickname aside, Nick Robinson’s a tiresome sycophant who deserves everything he gets for his latest blog this evening. Frankly, he’s a lazy journalist who should be putting the boot into both Opposition and Government rather than simply giving Brown and Co and easy ride. It’s time he was cast adrift from the cosy confines of the BBC and was forced to actually work for a living rather than take the easy ride with the other Lobby hacks.
“Lords commission warned Number 10 against Michael Martin peerage”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6613299.ece
148. Alternatively the Gop vote does well in the areas of Dixiecrat strength in the 1960s! Remeber Obama despite his good win last year had specific areas in the south were the GOP vote stood up well or even increased! Around Alamba and Arkanses for instance IIRC…..
150 this is Spandex - and it should be at least a PG certificate
147- Some of the areas with the worst educational profiles in the country couldn’t really shift very much because they were already voting so overwhelmingly for Democrats (urban areas such as Detroit, St. Louis, Milwaukee, DC, Cleveland, etc.).
147 But in general, people with higher educational qualifications (apart from the Ivy League universities) will vote Republican - unsurprising, as they have higher incomes.
136 He was always known as Red Robbo, within the YCs, a dedicated anti-Thatcherite. In other words, a Socialist.
150. Yes - Your not looking are you!
A a pair of socks as well!
144
157 - Down the front?
159. On my feet!
152 Shame Speaker wasn’t a one legged, Muslim, single, trans-sexual lesbian mother of black-Welsh descent.
“Downing Street said yesterday that the decision to grant Mr Martin an honour was on the basis of a recommendation from the House of Commons in an uncontested motion. Labour MPs said that it would have been vindictive to have denied him a peerage, given his decision to resign to enable the Commons to make a clean break after the expenses scandal.
His supporters said that he was forced out because he was “Scottish, working-class and Catholic”.
It’s so comforting to know the Labour Government are ‘getting on with the job’ (as if). From the FT:
I am told hardly any of them can be persuaded to concentrate on governing
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5918baa8-65a9-11de-8e34-00144feabdc0.html
154 - Martin’s spandex is all sparkly, that one is just boring green with a waste of space inside.
157 - wearing Wallace and gromit socks again today
136 - now THAT was funny
The Ed Ball’s spat with Fraser Nelson rumbles on - according to a poster on The Spectator website, Tom Harris has now banned the use of the word ‘Liar’ on his website. What a pompous twit.
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2009/06/30/undergarments-not-on-fire-at-least-not-on-this-site/
144 Thank you for that information. That’ll fragment the vote a bit, won’t it? But I still think the Tories are on to win. Leaving aside the ComRes poll, all the evidence seems to me to suggest that the public is still in the mood for kicking the Government, and who can blame them?
149 Hadn’t thought of that. Good point. But it’s a non-starter now, isn’t it? If ID cards aren’t compulsory the take-up will be low, especially among the 18 - 25 year olds who’ll be out of work so won’t be able to afford them and won’t even be able to drown their sorrows, either, because Sainsbury’s won’t sell them cheap booze amy more without subjecting them to the third degree.
44.excellent post. Just the facts, how come I’ve never seen them presented anywhere else in such a simple straightforward way?
142. This policy (checking IDs of people looking under 25 trying to buy alcohol) has been in place in my local Scottish branch of Somerfields for a while now.
IMHO, the proponents of this rule should be made to work undercover as checkout assistants on the morning of Celtic/Rangers matches.
The LD idiot is on Newsnight - Looks like he was knocking something up!!!
Not number 31 though!
156 - Not true Sean.
All the poll showed that Obama performed better the more educated the group.
Don’t know where you got your figures from.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106381/obama-education-gap-extends-general-election.aspx
re 130 your memory is wrong. Any by election can be held in a recess whatever the cause of it being needed.
161 - If it wasn’t so serious you would have to laugh as Labou eat themselves.
shame that they are trashing the country in their death throes
re 132 marcia don’t bother with the Sunday Herald. Why not go straight to the horse’s mouth and read the Recess Elections Act 1975
161- So in the ultimate irony, New Labour have become a Libertarian Party!
169 tim, will you be submitting your PB article tomorrow?
I’ve no idea if Craig Murray would win or not, but he’ll certainly make an impression on the electorate and he has nothing to lose.
169 - Chris A - we were discussing not whether a by-election can be held in a recess, but whether the writ can be moved in the recess. I understood that because Michael Martin resigned as an MP then it can’t - but marcia said she’d read somewhere that there was some exception because he’s about to become a Lord.
As always, the British constitution leaves a lot to be desired.
168- That’s a poll, not election figures.
The fromt pages suggest Labour are offloading toxins as fast as they can.
171 - thanks Chris - I did find by a convoluted route, and have been reading that for a little while. It would be nice if 2 MP’s moved the writ, it would throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
NPMP.Would you comment, please , on the list of government failures at 44 Another Richard. Fairly comprehensive, don’t you think? Perhaps you would include an explanation of your continued support for such devastating incompetence.
177
Sudenly you dont need to sell your home to pay for care.. Will Labour refund the money to all that have had to??? Cant read the detail of the story
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/wednesdays_front_pages_as_they_come_in.html
155 - Which states have the lowest number of college graduates.?
Aren’t the worst performing ones in the Republican Arc of Stupidity that stretches down from West Virginia through Mississippi and Arkansas?
Brown is nothing but a puppet!
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/06/peter-mandelson-has-his-hand-up-gordons.html
Breaking News
Sky Sources: BA Wants To Cut 5,000 Jobs
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/British-Airways-Managers-In-Talks-With-Unions-Over-Savings-Plans-To-Try-To-Avoid-Strike/Article/200906415324317?lpos=Business_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15324317_British_Airways_Managers_In_Talks_With_Unions_Over_Savings_Plans_To_Try_To_Avoid_Strike
Times running a story about Tesco’s linked to buying NR.
173 Only in some form of Stephen King parallel universe, Simon.
I don’t agree with all of it, but lots of it make simple sense if read with a sensible head.
http://lpuk.org/
182 - Martin D, perhaps you should considered having a cold shower before posting on-line.
Don’t want the women folk to have a fit of the agues.
156. Always wondered this..
a) why was he in the yc’s if he was a socialist?
b) who voted for him as national chairman and why?
184 - the article
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6613502.ece
158 Sorry about that. My daft old cat jumps on my keyboard quite regularly having apparently learned how to post a comment on pb. Her views are more soundly based than one or two other people’s, however. tim, for one.
151 Edp. Yes, Nick Robinson is lazy. He’s not the sharpest pencil in the box, either, which doesn’t help and, unusually in a political correspondent, doesn’t to have much political nous. When he can be bothered, he reports what he’s seen or done with reasonably accuracy, but he never seems to understand the significance of it until somebody else tells him. He’s not alone, though. I think a lot of the left-leaning commentariat are in headless chicken mode at the moment. They see what’s happening, they report what’s happening but they can neither believe nor understand it. Post-election, I suspect there will be almost as many journos looking for a new career direction as there will be former MPs.
You don’t have to drive, or even be learning to drive, to get a driving licence.
A driving licence proves your identity and address every bit as well as an ID card.
A driving licence is cheaper than an ID card.
That’s what’s called a ‘no-brainer’.
Only problem is, NuLab has no brain.
156. I’ve seen conflicting data on party affiliation and education, and race is a complicating factor too. The Democrats seem to win among the uneducated and the highly educated, with the GOP doing well in the middle.
176 - CNN’s Exit poll showed Obamas lead amongst the highest educated (postgraduates) at 18%
re 175 it seems I have misread the Act which does indeed say that if he had become a peer first then the provisions of said Act could apply.
“Labour campaign overlooks a graveyard!!!”
192
Tim youre not listening, thats a poll.
crick on newsnight,’clegg is building a bad record in by-elections’,your not kidding mate.The man is pathetic and the lib dems are playing dirty with the greens in norwich north,just because they don’t want to finish 4th,question got to be asked about cleggovers leadership me thinks.
190 - here in Georgia you can get a Georgia ID card - same as a driver’s license but not used as such, for $20 for 5 years, $35 for 10 years. Simple really.
http://www.dds.ga.gov/drivers/DLdata.aspx?con=1747740603&ty=dl
156- Sean Fear- were they the same the young conservatives who wanted Mandela to be hanged?.
Thankfully, at last the yanks have seen sense and embraced good old fashioned left wing politics.
191 - Not true again.
Obama outperformed McCain in all education goups, including “those in the middle”
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1
No High School (4%)63% 35%
H.S. Graduate (20%) 52% 46%
Some College (31%) 51% 47%
College Graduate (28%) 50% 48%
Postgraduate (17%) 58% 40%
Just done a voting intention + certaintly to vote for chosen party on YouGov. Also touched on perceptions of spending vs cuts for Conservative and Labour.
198. Obama would be centrist in UK terms. A left winger would not be so hostile to nationalising the banks as his administration has been.
189. He went on a course if i recall correctly!
Last autumn i got that hacked off with Robinson i kept complaining and asking for him to be removed as he just took what Number 10 at face value and did not research any contridictions! As Robinson is useless i even sent them Hasard etc! My point is if i have to pay the poll tax licience fee on the dole/credit cards they can either report it correctly or get rid of toenails.
I think Toenails went on a course on how to be a journalist! How on earth he got into Oxford is beyond me! I could do a more balanced report with an improvement in content and i have not been to a decent university.
191- As broad generalizations go, that’s an accurate one.
187- casino- as reviled as Brown and his useless cronies are, they cannot become to match the revulsion, and sheer hatred that people hold for ideologue Tories, especially of the chinless, youth variety.
201. Those numbers exactly prove my point, you muppet! Obama did his best among the least and most educated, McCain did best among the educational middle.
195 - All election information comes from polls.
Its an Exit poll.
How do you think statistics are gathered on Elections?
Someone in the booth monitoring how people vote.
You really know so little about politics its astounding.
198. johnno
Some interesting images of Norwich North Liberal Democrats on Google!
Nick Clegg is crap - I do wonder if he will last till the election. Might be interesting in Sheffield Hallam if he is ousted! UK polling report has over 800 posts on sheffield hallam!
204. Oh he’d be right wing by European standards. America just doesn’t do left wing politics by our standards.
202- tim, you’ve completely botched this one. The issue isn’t whether Obama won among all groups. He won the election, so that skews all groups in his direction. Similarly, Reagan, I’m sure, won among all groups in 1984. The issue is that those in the middle vote more GOP than the average, while those on the ends vote more Dem than the average. Your own data prove Socrates right.
206- SAS- just reviewing the latest polls for Obama. Thanks goodness that the US have turned leftwards, and appreciate his many gifts. After the Neo cons, and right wing uselessness to boot.
A Newsnight disaster for both Vernon Coaker and Michael Gove.
Gove misremembered Lansley’s original gaffe.
And Coaker u-turned on making the detailed figures available despite Liam Byrne’s denials earlier…
Nick Robinson looks like a startled d*ldo.
208 - Apologies, I read your sentence The Democrats seem to win among the uneducated and the highly educated, with the GOP doing well in the middle
As saying the Republicans win in the middle.
207. Eh?
213- Don’t overreach, my friend. Obama is doing neither better nor worse than your average president at this stage in his presidency in terms of public opinion. Carter was doing just as well at this stage in the summer of 1977. Your reading is overly simplistic, to say the least.
217- casino- ideologue young tories (YC) must still rank as the most despised political grouping in the history of UK politics.
214. I think what Gove was saying was that the Schools budget is protected but the Education budget isn’t.
That initially sounds daft but the point is there is a lot within Education other than Schools (eg Further Education).
But the point could have been made much clearer.
210,thanks martin,I might just pop over to the sheffield hallam blog,give our nick a good review,a good review that jeremy clarkson would make a great MP for hallam.
214 - I agree with that.
WTF has happened to Gove, he’s got twice the IQ of Coaker yet still managed to make himself look useless.
219. I think your out of date on that score!!!
I should imagine Young New Labour advocates are not just a rare bread but a pretty dispised one!
219. Has Sinn Fein/IRA slipped your memory?
214: ‘Gove misremembered Lansley’s original gaffe.’
Misremembering someone else’s gaffe probably isn’t the end of the world. You want to suck it of oxygen and kill it off from the public memory.
220 Mike L
I don’t think that’s right.
If you recall straight after the Lansley gaffe, Philip Hammond was on Newsnight the same night saying that Lansley was wrong about schools.
Subsequently the line has been very clear. Health and International Development will rise; no other departments are protected from cuts.
Unfortunately Lansley’s original gaffe differed from this line. Gove didn’t remember that, and insisted it didn’t.
Disaster when he was flatly contradicted by the original Lansley quote.
He has no chance. The parties are already working very hard and signs are up, the battle lines drawn and 3 leaflets have gone out from the Lib Dems and Tories already.
I live and work in the constituency and I cannot see that Mr Murray will get more than 3-5% of the vote.
221. johnno
Mark Senior even made an appearance!
180 ‘The fromt pages suggest Labour are offloading toxins as fast as they can.’
Funny that. Snap election MTF?
218. While I agree tyson is overreaching, the context needs to be put as both time in office as well as the number of big controversial issues tackled. That Obama is maintaining good ratings despite action on the economy, healthcare and climate change should be welcomed as good news by Democrats, albeit cautiously.
On topic: When I first read Mike’s piece earlier, I was puzzled by his conclusion:
I think this move could make it that much harder for the Tories to take the seat which is normal circumstances you would have regarded as a certainty.
Having read all the comments, I’m still puzzled.
It seems to me that, as others have said, Craig Murray is relatively unknown, so he will probably have limited impact. Unless I’ve missed something essential, Shadsy’s Christmas bonus is not going to be hit by massive payouts on Craig Murray.
But inasmuch as he does take votes from other parties, I would have thought they would come more from Labour, and perhaps the Greens, than the Tories.
216. Apology accepted.
225. That whole interview was a load of farcicle nonsense!
228,what,(we won a council seat)senior on there,the man gets every where when the lib dems win a council seat.
230- There’s no reason for the Dems to look good numbers in the mouth. However, a lot of the sh*t is just starting to hit the fan in terms of public impatience with the lack of early hoped-for economic results and the passage of major non-stimulus legislation, such as cap-and-trade and healthcare reform. Almost every president has good numbers at this stage of his presidency (Clinton was the only post-war exception); it is the next six months or so that will likely make or break Obama heading into the mid-terms.
as if anyone needs reminding…
http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2009/06/gordons-10-worst-financial-gaffs.html
“Relations strained as Alistair Darling and Mervyn King play down hostilities
Alistair Darling is getting used to apologies: within the past week he has received expressions of regret from Lord Mandelson and Mervyn King.
Lord Mandelson called Mr Darling after pre-empting a key decision on public spending in a radio interview, The Times has learnt. It followed a meeting to clear the air between the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England a few days earlier after Mr King’s extraordinary public complaint about the Treasury’s plans to tackle the country’s increasing debt.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6613286.ece
“180 ‘The fromt pages suggest Labour are offloading toxins as fast as they can.’
Funny that. Snap election MTF?”
Hope so, going to the country on 23% sounds a good plan. Go Gordon, go!
236 - And that my friend is how Gordo loses the election, oh plus the 3 - 3.5 million unemployed.
I accept the good news is tentative, but I don’t think independents are impatient yet. The thorny issue I think most likely to get his approval to drop is immigration reform - let’s see how that works out.
229 - The “dignified exit” theory may be behind all this.
Talk bollocks about spending to try and convince waverers,abort ID cards and other unpopular measures,talk tough on British born getting to the top of Council house lists,and no doubt another slew of measures will be announced in the next few weeks.
All seems to me of ways of closing that poll gap,Brown exits in a “dignified way” and a new man comes along,with the honeymoon that entails with the electorate and a snap election is held!!!
Thats my conspiracy theory anyway!!!!
207 ‘casino- as reviled as Brown and his useless cronies are, they cannot become to match the revulsion, and sheer hatred that people hold for ideologue Tories, especially of the chinless, youth variety.’
I can’t deny that the hatred of Tories in some people is visceral. It seems to be to do with undigested class hatred and envy and, because it’s basically irrational, it’s very difficult to deal with. If you ask such people to explain the reasons for their hatred, they merely repeat the chant and work themselves into a worse frenzy than they were in to start with. It’s not worth arguing with them.
What the left should fear, however, is the large and growing number of people who have now come to hate Labour, not for what they are but for what they have done to this country. And they can give you chapter and verse for the reasons they feel that way. Look again at 44, for example.
221 Martin - talking of the LibDem candidate, do you think that the voters of Norwich North are going to duck Pond?
I see the Loonies there have got A Hope.
180 - ‘The fromt pages suggest Labour are offloading toxins as fast as they can.’
But they aren’t. Ob ID cards they haven’t been scraped, in fact Labour are probably even in worse position. All that money for ID cards, but none of the supposed benefits as they claim we will never have to carry. a) what is the point of them, b) the database is still there and c) do we believe them?
Teacher MOT’s, sounds like it will p##s off the teachers. More red tape, more cost, more non-jobs. And I just can’t see how parents are going to get excited. So if they are really really crap, they will lose their licence in up to 5 years time. Most will say, why don’t you just sack them?
238 Maybe a few more those fancy envelope stuffing machines have been purchased and charged back to the taxpayer. They’d come in very handy for helping out the postal voters, and lifting the percentages in Labours favour.
“The front pages suggest Labour are offloading toxins as fast as they can.”
Are they ditching Gordon then?
240 Up to a point but it will solidify Latino s into the Obama camp.
The Republicans can not win the Whitehouse without Latinos and by relying on the poorly educated states.
The damage that Sarah Palin wrought on the Republican brand may linger as long as intelligent Conservatives feared.
243. LD = Doomed!
Am I the only one that thinks the name Vernon Coaker sounds like a cabaret singer?
Following the standard classification of a recession being two or more consecutive quarters of economic decline the ONS gives the following as recessions:
1956 -0.5% 2 quarters
1957 -0.8% 2 quarters
1961 -0.8% 2 quarters
1973/4 -3.4% 3 quarters
1975 -1.9% 2 quarters
1980/1 -4.6% 5 quarters
1990/1 -2.6% 5 quarters
2008/9 -5.0% 4 quarters continuing
Gordon didn’t give us a boom but he’s certainly given us a bust.
Re The promise that we are never going to be forced to carry ID cards:
FFS! This has always been the promise. For the simple fact that once the register is up an running the actual cards are irrelevant. Its the fingerprint that counts not the card!
*wanders off muttering about why intelligent people think the cards are important but don’t see the real danger*
249.GIN I think he will be a Croaker at the next election!
Its a job to take anybody seriously with a name like Vernon.
247- “The Republicans can not win the Whitehouse without Latinos and by relying on the poorly educated states.”
Yes, it’s always good to first rule out strategies nobody has suggested before proceeding to credible strategies.
251 Yup - what is the status of the contract for the massive snooping database, of which ID cards were just the outward manifestation - the one where the money was really being spent? Has that been canned too?
Thought not….
Lansley really is a plonker isn’t he… he can’t keep his mouth shut!
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:186369bb-5ccf-4923-92ed-faa237a14004
240- Immigration reform is still nebulous, though. It remains to be seen what exactly he’ll do. If he goes with wholesale amnesty, he’ll have to be gambling that he stands to gain more Hispanic votes than he’ll lose white votes, which is an iffy prospect (particularly in the immediate term, since those Hispanics placed on the road to residency and citizenship won’t actually become voting citizens for quite a while). Such a move would likely benefit his Democratic successors more than it would benefit himself.
247 Yes they can win without the latino vote (what’s this to do with anything?), but that is the least of their worries. Republicans now have approval ratings so low even they are embarassed about it. The whole litmus test of anti-abortion, anti-stem cell research, homophobia, rabid anti-immigrant sance, the religious right crap - that has turned off whole swathes of the electorate - they are viewed as the nasty party. If you are a moderate Republican - socially liberal, fiscally conservative, believe in smaller rather than larger government - you have no home.
The republicans are really now reduced to the deep south and the west. They have to find a way to connect with people, ditch all the right wing and religious mumbo jumbo and reform themselves into a party that appeals to the middle as well as the right of the country.
It is a fate that awaits Labour in the UK unless there is a black swan event, an October surprise, whatever you want to call it.
I’m sure Stars can give you more chapter and verse than I can on this.
Sorry I was otherwise occupied during the discussion re: West Virginia my home state.
S&S was right on the money with 99.46% of his comments and observations. With exception of US Rep. Shelly Moore Caputo, the GOP bench among WV politicos is very weak. And she’s shyed away from prospect of giving up her seat in order to run statewide for Governor or US Senator. But she’s not getting any younger, nor are Republicans getting any more powerful in the House, where she’s got some seniority bult up but not quite enough. Plus her daddy was a Governor - and a convicted felon - so she may decide to go for the gusto at the next opportunity.
However, wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Byrd’s departure. He will hang on like limpet. And he won’t get anything approaching a shove from back home. Far as average West Virginian is concerned, if the old coot wants to expire in office, that’s his decision. Folks figure Robert Byrd half or even a quater alive is worth more than most state’s entire delegation. And in come cases they’re right.
One possible senario if Sen. Byrd leaves the scene in next year or so, is that Gov. Manchin might be able to get away with appointing himself. Few states were you could, but WV may be one of them. Manchin had pretty good reputation, and even the scandal involving his daughter getting a degree from WVU with less than full qualifications is not fatal in a place like WV, where plenty of voters would think it amiss if a politico didn’t try to help his kinfolk out a bit here and there.
Note that GOP has tried a LOT of different strategies to get some statewide traction. Aside from harvesting electoral votes, so far no dice. But S&S is right to showcase Shelly Moore Caputo. She could be a game changer, if she doesn’t settle for a few more years in the House then off to K Street.
250 Where are you getting your figures from. If I recall correctly this recession started in Q2 2008 and has been as follows:
Q2 2008 -0.2%
Q3 2008 -0.6%
Q4 2008 -1.6%
Q1 2009 -2.4%
So the contraction so far is equal to the multiplication of these scale factors which is equal to -4.7%, not 5.0%.
258- Well, it’s not really worth going through all that, but suffice it to say that the problem isn’t quite as bad as you seem to think it is. Opposition politics in the U.S. is about reacting to the stumbles of the other side and taking advantage of the natural tendency of voters to favor divided government when one party controls everything, as is now the case. The ambitiousness of Obama’s agenda increases the likelihood of stumbles that can be exploited, as Socrates suggests. Also, tim’s views are actually emblematic of the thinking of the far-left core of the Democratic Party, which is still fighting the last election they already won (attacking Palin) rather than preparing for the next battle (defending Obama).
All of this produces an environment where Republicans will emphasize strategy over ideology (this will come naturally as opposition to Obama coalesces) while Democrats will find themselves increasingly divided and on the defensive. The result will likely be divided government again within four years, although it is too soon to predict how exactly the division will occur.
It is worth noting that our most consistently popular post-war president, Ike Eisenhower, lost control of Congress during his first mid-term election and, by the time he left the White House, the Dems had overwhelming majorities in both the House and Senate. All this, in spite of the fact that his approval rating only “dipped” below 60% for one relatively brief period, during his final term in office (and his approval was NEVER less than 50%!). This is the natural state of American politics, strange as it may seem.
260. IIRC they revised Q4 to -1.8!
262 Q4 Revised down again! ONS are genuinely awful at this. Their first estimates for every quarter of the recession have been substantially off. I can’t keep up with thier mistakes.
263. Crikey - Surprised the John Reid famous phrase about the home office has not been used about the ONS!
259- You know, I had considered the possibility of Manchin appointing himself, WV being that kind of state! I believe the last time that was done was when a governor of Minnesota, Democrat Wendell Anderson, tried it after Mondale vacated his Senate seat upon becoming VP in 1977. The voters of Minnesota were not amused and threw him out of office in 1978. But, as you say, you can probably pull off that sort of stunt in WV!
260. RH
ONS site though it doesn’t include todays new data.
Q4 2008 has now I believe been revised to -1.8%.
And I think Qtr3 2008 was revised to -0.7% months ago.
I have to admit to just adding the quarter totals together rather than multiplying properly but that should only affect totals by 0.1% at most.
Regarding Craig Murray, what are his connections with Norwich?
By the sound of him ‘Scottish dissident’, ‘Rector of the University of Dundee’ he would be more suited to Glasgow NE.
266 See 262/263. Mistake on my part, can’t keep track of the figures.
267 - he was born near Sheringham so he is a Norfolk lad. It is just by chance he is Rector of Dundee University.
bbc website reporting 2 navy dockyards may be closed down.I went to post on robinsons blog,I did’nt get away with calling him toenails,the moderators got me.
266 That makes a total contraction of 5.02%; according to your figures the worst recession since the war.
Do not know if someone posted:
“Come clean on public spending cuts, ministers tell Brown
Gordon Brown faced a Cabinet revolt yesterday over his refusal to come clean about the need for cuts in public spending.
(…)
At the same time the Chancellor slapped down Lord Mandelson after the Business Secretary said he would ditch the Comprehensive Spending Review due this year, which would have spelt out where the axe would fall.
Alistair Darling is furious that he was made to look like someone trying to hoodwink voters, when he has been leading calls for Labour to be more honest about the need to rein in soaring deficits.”
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1196680/Come-clean-public-spending-cuts-ministers-tell-Brown.html
271. Richard Howell.
You need to be a bit careful because the change for each quarter is rounded to 1 decimal place.
The ONS site lists the actual GDP index for each quarter: see my post this morning which calculated the recession overall as -4.9%.
ChrisP, Good to see you posting again. Don’t see much of you or MikeL on PB.com these days.
61.”49. But what are we to make of the other bizarre announcement of today, viz. the teacher ‘licensing system’?”
RM, it was the promise to provide 100,000 tutors that really made my jaw drop. Not surprised that Fraser Nelson felt the need to blog that post this morning, Balls performances this morning had a twilight zone feel to them. And he was gambling on the fact that no one in Westminster or in the Political Lobby would dare call him on his dishonesty. He lost, but the fact that he and his boss got away with so much of this kind behaviour, and for so long made him, made him arrogant enough to try it. Balls does not know how to deal with a real political contest.
Re: WVa, Shelley Moore Caputo (correct spelling this time) has an advantage in a statewide race, in that her home base is Charleston WV which is not only the state capital but the state’s main media center, covering over half the state on way or another, in particular via local TV news stations plus the Charleston Gazette (Democratic) and Daily Mail (Republican) which are both pretty decent papers.
She’s also helped some by fact her distict also covers far eastern panhandle counties of WV which today are part of exurban Washington DC, and thus the most affluent part of the state. Political significane is she’s sort of a “hometown” memeber of Congress for many in the Beltway. Which is very helpful in raising national money for a statewide campaign.
BTW, WV’s population is small, but it’s also fragmented between media markets. If Rep. Caputo does run for Gov or US Sen, she’ll need some bucks to penetrate into the West Virginia parts of the TV markets centered on Washington DC, Pittsburgh PA and other out-of-state media. Note that outside cities and towns where there is cable TV the satellite is the name of the game in the Mountain State.
93.”I have never seen the Life of Brian.”
Easterross, you didn’t miss anything. That film has the dubious honour of actually putting me to sleep in a cinema. First and only time it ever happened.
It seems very much as if the Balls / Brown / Mandy strategy of lying their way to an election win has come apart at the seams only two days into it’s life.
Politics is going to be very ugly and unedifying between now and May. The government is going to suffer the intense pain of seeing large numbers of people speaking the truth to power.
Noboby is afraid of them any more. It will be non-stop ‘liar, liar, pants on fire’ for months. The hatred is building.
I’m starting to think the GE wil be a historic rout whatever the polls are saying right now.
99.”I see Labour are frit in Glasgow NE. Hardly surprising.”
Easterross, I suspect, that like the previous two Labour held by elections in Scotland, this seat requires a hell of lot of groundwork that cannot be done within the time frame of the campaign. Labour have been far too complacent, and just assumed that their Scottish heartland seats would be totally safe. Times have changed, and after the shock Glasgow East result, they are doing what they did in Glenrothes, and leaving nothing to chance. Regardless of how Martin performed as an MP, he was basically being returned by proclamation at each GE. I bet that there were no reliable and update canvass returns for any of these seats.
278 Christina. It would certainly be funny and not a little ironic to see Labour getting a hammering in Scotland. They seem to view the Scottish vote as theirs by right and not to be awarded on merit.
We get quite a bit of good Scottish comment here on PB from the likes of youself, Stuart, Easterross, etc. We get much less from Wales. The Labour result in Wales at the Euros / Locals was just dire. The Welsh vote is another one they take for granted and may not get.
Are they, I wonder, falling back on Northern England and a desire to get them ‘to hate the Tories’ as their vestigial core vote?
Mike,
A few of my campaign workers put on bets in Norwich yesterday because they all think 33/1 is a very good punt. We have also had full page ads in the two very influential local papers Monday and Tuesday which may have attracted some local bets. So no mystery.
I really think the odds on me are very interesting for a bet. I also think the odds on the Greens are very uninteresting - they got 3% at the last general election and 18% in the constituency in the recent locals.