What does the ID card news actually mean?
July 1st, 2009
Does this suggest Johnson is still angling for the top job?
There is still a large school of thought that thinks Brown will be allowed to step aside with dignity before the next election, and that such a promise was given to stop him being ousted in an ugly coup a month ago. Alan Johnson, who reputedly had a leadership campaign ready to launch, was suddenly promoted to Home Secretary, and the general feeling of those who doubt Brown will contest the General Election as PM is that the former postman will take over between late November and early March.
If that had even a germ of truth, then the ID cards ‘reversal’ would make political sense - making a clean break from an unpopular policy promoted by Jacqui Smith, and painting Johnson as a man who makes things happen when faced with popular disapproval.
That said, I suspect this may backfire. The removal of the compulsory element of owning an ID card (at least for UK citizens) sounds significant, but the defence against Tory and Lib Dems calls for the scheme to be scrapped sounds weak and indecisive. Nobody should take seriously the claim that this is about convenient ID for young people attending nightclubs - the Portman Group have long operated schemes that allow people to prove their age for significantly less than the £30 cost of an ID card. When a provisional drivers’ licence can be acquired from the DVLA for £50 (even without passing the theory test or wanting to learn to drive) the massive expenditure on the ID cards computer system seems perverse.
And yet Johnson is resolutely refusing to simply scrap the scheme, claiming that it would save little money to do so. That implies to me that the Identity Database, with the details of every UK resident, will still be operational and (one presumes) compulsary - although instead of relying on ‘applications for ID cards’ it will rely on consolidating data from passport applications, CRB checks and other sources. The Database will still come into being, and will still need to be populated with information about every citizen if it is to be any use at all.
Given that this aspect, rather than the plastic cards themselves, was the original concern of civil liberties campaigners, the announcement that the expensive cards themselves will not be compulsory could quickly appear to be spectacularly hollow.
Alan Johnson’s main claim to the leadership, beyond not actually being Gordon Brown, is that he is an honest man of the people. If this announcement is mere political posturing to make him more palatable to the civil liberties Left, whilst not addressing their core concerns, I suspect he will do his ambitions more harm than good.
I think Johnson needs to go further if he wants to gain political capital out of this. Abandoning the Identity Database for UK citizens would score him real points, and by (for example) making it purely a register of non-UK citizens resident in the UK he could paint it as an immigration issue, with the Tories and Lib Dems on what I would expect to be the less popular side. However, as long as the Identity Database plans to contain all UK citizens’ data, I think scrapping the ID cards themselves could be a move that is so half-hearted as to be detrimental to his chances of becoming Prime Minister.
Morus
PS: Mike is away on holiday for a little while. If you have queries, complaints, or guest articles you’d like to be considered, please email either myself (morus1516 [AT] hotmail [DOT] com) or Double Carpet (electiongame [AT] yahoo [DOT] co [DOT] uk )
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Abandoning the Identity Database for UK citizens would score him real points
Absolutely. As long as the scheme exists, the “voluntary” element can be made compulsory. The whole thing must be binned.
It means that it will be scrapped completely after the next election, because everybody will realise that Johnson’s announcement is merely a meaningless gimmick, and they will be enthused ever more to throw out the Labour government to get rid of the scheme completely.
(Previous thread)
If anything, he will provide a reason for people to swing from Labour to Independent, who otherwise couldn’t bring thmselves to vote for the Horrid Tories. Thusly it will split the vote and make the Conservative margin bigger.
This is a typical ‘not what it seems’ Labour half truth.
The big issue with ID cards was never really the cards themselves - it was the database that would enable all sorts of Big Brother snooping and control over people’s lives. David Davis when he resigned and reran at by-election correctly pointed out that not only would the Tories kill the cards - they’d delete the database. The database would create all sorts of powers for the state over individuals and the state’s record thus far on maintaining security and data quality standards by this (or any) government is just woeful. That is the core of the civil liberties objection. And on top of that was, of course, the cost.
By making the ID scheme ‘voluntary’ AJ was only really saying that Labour would:
1. Create the database physically
2. Spend an absurd amount of money on it
3. Make a start on issuing the cards
4. Offer no legal or manifesto guarantees that this would remain voluntary in future
So in fact he’s offered nothing at all. Every single practical activity and spending commitment on ID cards at least up to the election is totally unchanged.
If there’s anybody left in the country who trusts Labour not to do just what the hell it pleases after a GE win then they are batshit insane.
This is pure spin and lies.
AJ did not inspire as leadership material.give him the job of leading the “first wave” on to the landing beaches! HH is the one.
Morus - good luck in the “Captain’s Chair” over the next three weeks.
As regards the ID card reversal, I had always thought that the Government had maintained that this was to be a voluntary scheme, just as long as you never required a passport, or even to open a bank account,etc.
This latest announcement by Johnson is pure politicking and one dreamed up purely as a damage limitation exercise prior to the GE to prevent it from becoming a major issue during the campaign. I suspect it is also a means of avoiding committing further massive expenditure on the whole ID scheme, which even Labour are sufficiently smart enough to realise will be scrapped on day one of the incoming Tory administration.
The moment OGH goes abroad, you can guarantee political fireworks…
It is the Database that those with a hatred for a snooping State want rid of. They will not be appeased.
Still, on ID cards, seems like Dave’s dodgy accent got results!
Typically fudge from the government.
They announce something, and within minutes, some more intelligent member of the press or blogging community notices that it is not what it seems.
The Lib Dems & Tories will make hay with this announcement. In spending terms, its like saying because money is short you will still buy the suit, tie, shirt, cufflinks and shoes, but will not buy any socks.
In civil liberties terms, it is like trial by jury, where all jury members are from the ruling party.
If you want ID cards, argue in favour of them, if you don’t cancel the whole thing. You cannot have a compromise between the two.
Some of the commenters here have pointed out that id cards could be Labour’s big wild card. Well they just blew it.
Morus,
If you’re looking for thread ideas while on the hot seat how about something on the subject of women voters? There’s an interesting article on the Times today:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2009/06/are-women-worse-voters.html
We’re certainly a male dominated bunch here on PB.
Is Dave’s much ‘easier on the eye’ appearance and relatively friendlier demeanour compared to Brown going to have a big impact?
Do women vote in equal numbers with men? Do pollsters take this into account?
I think a part of the 1997 result was Blair’s looks and charm factor and Brown seems to be an evil villain straight out of central casting.
FPT 156- Sean Fear- were they the same the young conservatives who wanted Mandela to be hanged?.
Of course, that is, when we weren’t eating minced babies, and campaigning for the return of the slave trade.
8. Mens’ and womens’ views do differ quite markedly on political questions. But, there is very little difference, in terms of voting for parties.
That’s odd then.
At first the spin doctors built up Brown’s appeal to female voters.
Kevin Maguire: “People can call me what they like,” he laughs.”It used to be Heathcliff, with even one of my colleagues calling me it - but I won’t say which one. I suppose Darcy is better than Heathcliff.”
Unfortunately for Gordon, Darcy turned out to be someone else entirely.
To misquote today’s front page of the Sun,
“Gordo to lie in state of Never Never Land”.
Maybe I’m missing something but I beleive it to be true that quite a number of women voters are swayed in their choice of vote by the physical and personality appeal of the candidate.
Given that I’m a bloke and I hate him, I’m probably very biased - BUT… is Gordon Brown hot? Surely no! He looks like a swarthy, sweaty, clammy cyclops to me.
Christina, Sally, Marf, (Loony?) - help. If your life depended on it would it be Dave or Gord?
14 Surely, that cuts both ways, if the candidate is an attractive woman, for example.
Morus, is the bit about mining data from CRB checks actual policy or just a theory? Please let it just be a theory. CRB checks are absurd taxes on volunteering (not to mention absurd taxes on coaching) and this would just be one more reason for people not to bother.
Can someone explain where the info for the biometric passports is to be kept and wht the difference is betweeen that store and the Database.
9 - The “Hang Nelson Mandela, Smash the NHS” stuff wasn’t the most embarrassing stuff done by the FCS.
The desire by some swivel eyed libertarians to abolish the age of consent and legalise sex with children would fill that spot.
Morus - Please use the new Amazon system for pictures. An image uploaded to their servers rather than using on of PB’s is the equivalent of 200 comments in server capacity
Any problems email Robert or me.
Cheers.
No doubt the ultra-close 1960 US Presidential Election was lost when sweaty Tricky Dicky Nixon came up agains that handsome JFK…
FPT Patrick:
“Are they, I wonder, falling back on Northern England and a desire to get them ‘to hate the Tories’ as their vestigial core vote?”
Labour are disintegrating in the industrial areas of northern England although they are still holding up in some of the welfare/ethnic parts.
In traditional white working class industrial/mining areas Labour has always relied on a tribal loyalty with the claim that bad things such as recessions and miners strikes only happen under Conservative governments and that Labour would always look after ‘their’ people.
Instead we now have a massive sense of betrayal caused by such things as the recession, immigration and higher taxation. The image of Labour giving unlimited amounts of taxpayers money to the City while iconic factories/steelworks close causes great anger among their traditional supporters.
The feeling that Labour no longer care and might actually despise ‘people like us’ in heightened by the change in Labour MP. Whereas previously Labour MPs in these areas were people such as Roy Mason, Joe Ashton and currently Ann Cryer (ie people from the same background) now these constituencies get the likes of Shahid Malik and the Millipedes.
14 - As a woman I can’t say that Gordon is hot though presumably others’ may take a different view. It’s an interesting point as to whether physical attractiveness is a factor in voting since it is unconnected to party politics. I don’t find Gordon physically attractive (to me he always looks as if he needs a wash and brush up too) but whether his attractions are reduced because I loathe him viscerally in a way that I have never loathed another British politician (even when I was a young mindless leftie I didn’t ‘hate’ Margaret Thatcher) I don’t know, but I certainly wouldn’t vote for him if he was good looking and stylish with all other things remaining the same.
17 - Nothing like taking the extremes and trying to portray them as the mainstream of libertarians.
I guess one could take the opposite and say all left wingers want to take old people away from their relatives because they simply are not up to the task of looking after them when there are thousands on the Govt payroll to do the job.
Has the Independent spotted a very significant development on Labour’s “investment vs cuts” campaign?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-gets-jitters-over-tory-cuts-message-1726192.html
If this is right, this is a huge retreat.
20 Another Richard, you hit on an interesting notion that might be worth pursuing in a thread sometime - the lack of local connnection when you have a party of professional politicians whose aim has always been to get straight into Govt., rather than getting themselves noticed by working their way up from local councillors. Their roots are that much more easily dislodged once the Govt. becomes unpopular. As we shall see at the next election.
Can you imagine Peter Mandelson putting in twenty years as a Hartlepool councillor before getting to be their MP???
20 There’s a very good article on the Searchlight website, that makes a lot of those points.
22 Insofar as there are people who would like to legalise sex between adults and children, they’re probably more likely to be found on the margins of the Left, rather than the margins of the Right.
The full datasheets of the ICM/BBC Scotland poll are now available:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_06_09_devolution_poll.pdf
‘Salmond ‘more popular’ than Brown’
The Scottish first minister is considerably more popular in Scotland than either Gordon Brown or David Cameron, a BBC poll has suggested.
The poll, commissioned from ICM, found more than half of those questioned thought Alex Salmond was doing a “good” or “very good” job.
But only 37% believed Mr Brown was performing well as UK prime minister.
Tory leader Mr Cameron fared even worse, with only 21% thinking he would make a good prime minister.
The poll of 1,010 people was carried out by ICM between 22 and 24 June to mark a decade of Scottish devolution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8127464.stm
Of course personal charisma and appearance matter - ‘looks and sounds like a leader’, ‘a natural leader’, ‘leadership material’ these common phrases are common for a reason - they influence your view of someone’s ability.
If Bill Clinton had the personality of Carter he would never have got away with an iota of his scandals.
Before the tv age, it wasn’t as important but still a big part of the mix. Nowadays if someone hasn’t got it [Gordon/Alan] then it shows big time. Tony wasn’t Teflon Tony for nothing.
Dave’s got it - IMO Clegg hasn’t yet but has potential. Salmond has the same gift as Kennedy - not lookers but good strong positive personalities.
Gordon is a miserable, baggy, jabby-fingered and arrogant liar - I’d never vote Labour with him in charge.
Worrying stuff. If Ken is about, would you please comment on this Thanks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aptnrMueIerQ
Here are the previous BBC Scotland reports on this poll:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8123114.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8123346.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8124129.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8125041.stm
(list may not be comprehensive)
23 “Labour will claim there is a “fundamental difference in instinct and ambition”
You can say that again. Labour are instinctively serial feckless wastrels whose ambition will always be to spend other people’s money - and then some.
The Tory instinct and ambition is small, value-for-money Government.
Any guesses who the voters currently feel more drawn towards? Another losing strategy for Labour…
23 - That would be exactly the right move by Labour they need to be much clearer about savings and where they will be gained.
Particularly as Camerons “pain sharing” will clearly not apply to the wealthy.
PS Osborne should stop making a fool of himself of himself over this information access issue.
15 Sean. I suppose so. Are there any?
Please don’t bombard me with sexist jibes - I’m just genuinely not aware of any female politicians that I would fancy. (Does Joanna Lumley count?)
15. I was about to make the same point. However, as probably 85-90% of candidates who stand a chance of winning are men, that impact is presumably greatest on the female (and gay?) vote.
On topic, the ID card news means a few things:
1) the Government has decided after all that this isn’t a vote winner
2) it still seems to see some important purpose in the scheme, though it has completely failed to communicate what that purpose might be
3) it has failed to identify a coherent defensive position
4) this will continue to be an issue motivating a particular cadre of voters (including me) to vote against Labour
5) Alan Johnson isn’t very good at machtpolitik
31 The wealthy, will, presumably be paying higher rates of income tax, (at least initially) under a Conservative government, than they’re paying now.
31 “Osborne should stop making a fool of himself over this information access issue.”
= “Osborne should stop making traction with a point that goes to the heart of this Govt’s secrects and lies - because it is hurting Labour’s election prospects…”
32 Certainly, a fair number among the likely new intake of Conservative women MPs.
37 As JackW’s probably still abed, I’l speak for him -
“Tory totty ahoy!”
31 - A Labour policy.
Can you think of a Conservative policy which would mean any financial sharing of the pain by David Cameron?
“Can you imagine Peter Mandelson putting in twenty years as a Hartlepool councillor before getting to be their MP?”
Exactly. The disdain of Nu Labour politicians for north-east constituencies is very prominent - Mandelson asking for guacamole in a chip shop, Blair immediately leaving Sedgefield to go money grabbing, Barbara Follett describing a constituency she was offered as ‘too working class’ and I would love to see a picture of D Millipede in a Tyneside WMC, it would make his banana photo look Churchillian in comparison
“Their roots are that much more easily dislodged once the Govt. becomes unpopular. As we shall see at the next election.”
I think this might apply in particular with the case of Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood.
31 - It would have been the correct original response to the crisis. Now, it is nowhere near enough. If the Government is effectively going to do a volte face and admit that cuts are coming, it needs to spell them out with far more precision than the Tories have so far managed. Anything less, and the tone will be drowned out entirely by the “Labour admits lying” story that would ensue. The suggestion in the same article that Alistair Darling is moving towards postponing the spending review is further evidence that the Government is completely adrift.
Incidentally, I think you’re quite wrong about George Osborne’s tack on information access. It strikes me as a clever example of low politics. While I expect that it is a civil service rather than a ministerial decision, it rather neatly reduces the pressure on him to reveal details of his suggested cuts while keeping up the impression (correct, but not in this particular) that the Government is seeking to hide the true state of affairs.
37 Can I snidely infer that what you say implies there will be no new Labour MPs (good looking or otherwise)? ;-0
39 Not repealing the income tax and national insurance increases.
34 antifrank - yes and as authoritarians - they can’t bear to give up that much potential control so pretend to make it less threatening.
42 Snide. Such a good word.
“Welcome to pb.com. Home of the snide.”
42 No, it’s just that I don’t know much about who’s getting selected for safe Labour seats.
It is striking though, just how many of Labour’s women MPs are very unattractive.
41 “If the Government is effectively going to do a volte face and admit that cuts are coming, it needs to spell them out”
Precisely - because it is the Government. If it wants to forego that duty, call a bloody election…
Ladbrokes still havent paid out on Brown not resigning before 1st July. Sort it out shadsy!!
Balls yesterday kept using the ‘fairness/unfair Tory’ line yesterday, think this is a development in their language.
Almost every caller I heard on R5 was very sceptical of Labour’s spending line except one 50yr old Scot who blamed everything on Thatcher and it was all an evil master plan to destroy people like him.
So that’s one safe vote then. Perhaps Gordon should get him cloned
43 - Very funny.
I suppose you could add to that “by not reversing the 40p tax, by not reversing council tax bands on large houses”
Its a simple question.
But I think we all know the answer.
Dave will not share any pain, he will be very adept at “feeling the pain” of those targeted for financial pain.
Just one policy that will involve a married millionaire paying more.
Shouldn’t be too difficult given his rhetoric about savings being spread fairly.
tim. Do you understand how tax works? You earn more, you pay more. Your view seems to be that if you earn more you should pay way, way more. Is that fair? How about a big personal allowance for all (keeping very low earners out tax) and then flat tax rate above that?
Any democracy is to some extent a ‘Rob Peter to pay Paul’ society. To avoid riots or systemic poverty you need to keep both Peter and Paul’s interests in acceptable balance. You seem only to care for Paul and Peter can STFU.
Also remember that Johnson, when on the PM programme, said that ID cards would not now be compulsory unless a future government made them so.
So that is the “voluntary” argument disposed of. Now they can collect the data and when they have enough data - bang! Compulsory cards.
This government really is a bunch of deceitful weasels.
51 It’s quite reasonable for Cameron to take the view that if higher earners are already facing sharp tax increases, they shouldn’t be expected to pay even more.
I see HMG have just taken over East Coast trains from National Express.
Another good day for Gordon.
The news means that Labour is retaining its knack for being rubbish.
If they’d cancelled it completely then it would make no difference to my voting intention but may’ve swayed leftish civil libertarians. If they’d gone for it saying it was essentially moronic authoritarians might’ve backed Labour.
Whose vote do they have now? People who enjoy wasting money on unnecessary identification methods which require a massive and intrusive database?
52 Agreed. Labour’s ambitions on compulsory identity cards have merely been put back, not put down.
One thing that I hope (but do not expect) is that at a time when we need to make swingeing cuts and substantial tax rises, we might possibly be able to scotch the ridiculous idea that taxation needs to be in some way “fair”.
Taxation needs to be effective at bringing in the money required for Government.
MTF @ 28 re Niall Ferguson says economy is going to hell in a handcart.
Until Ken shows up, the best way to catch up on this is to google Naill Fergusson and Paul Krugman (together) since they have been having a public set-to about this in their respective newspapers and elsewhere.
Basically, Ferguson thinks rising gilt yields (for UK, or US treasury bond yields over there) mean the economy is about to fall off a cliff whereas Krugman says they point the way to the sunlit uplands. (Oh, and remember that for bonds, rising yields means falling prices, presumably due to less demand and/or more supply).
See, for instance, this short Slate summary:
http://www.slate.com/id/2219769/
57 So 100% VAT on food? That’s effective…
57 Indeed. And we are well to the right of the sweet spot on the Laffer curve right now.
49. Plato
“So that’s one safe vote then. Perhaps Gordon should get him cloned”
He was cloned 10000 times over and lives in Glenrothes though I believe he will shortly move to Glasgow NE
59 - If it worked, why not?
61 Surely it was only the postal vote that was cloned not the voter himself.
O/T I know but Balls has been providing great entertainment lately. On Newsnight last night (first minute) Fraser Nelson on why Balls is a liar:
Fraser Nelson – “Ed Balls is a Liar”.
And from yesterday Gove’s repsonse to Balls’ statement to the House, almost as good as Hague on Mandelson:
Gove Gives Balls a Dose
8. Patrick. Not because Brown’s a one eyed Scottish idiot or Beckett looks like a horse?
Isn’t there a Big Brother site where your shallowness might not stand out as much?
64
Good work. Gove on Balls:
”I know he relishes his role as the Governments attack puppy. I know he relishes being the Prime Ministers Mini Me.”
If we forget the economy itself for a moment, it seems clear that the Conservatives are winning (or have won) the battle to frame the economic argument.
Labour wants to talk about the global financial crisis (not invented here!) and the need to spend money to counter it. Gordon Brown attacks the Conservatives for wanting to cut spending in a recession, and likens this to the disastrous response that turned the 1920s recession into a depression.
The Conservatives want to forget the rest of the world (obviously!) and even the recession and concentrate on the state of the public finances. They point to a record peacetime deficit which they aim to pin squarely on Labour: Gordon Brown’s debt.
The media seems to have adopted the Conservative view.
62 Pensioners dead from malnutrtion?
Fact is, all the other “effective” means of taxation have already been hit - short of massively raising VAT or income tax for all.
68 - If pensioners died from malnutrition, pension rates would have been incorrectly set and more money would need to be raised for the purposes of Government.
68 Think of the savings in public expenditure.
58. MTF. John L. is correct. Niall is more historian than economist (he is an economic historian), while PK is more economist. Note though that both are really arguing about likely outcomes rather than dead certs.
In some ways Niall is setting himself up for a “see I was right” if things blow up. There is a possibility that we face a situation where foreigners no longer want to buy UK debt and the pound falls - notably if the recession turns nasty again. Merv King is worried about this possibility - it is a significant non-zero probability and so Merv is right to be worried. Is the probability 1 in 3? Sounds a little high to me, I’d guess from current market prices (gilts etc) that it is being priced at no more than 1 in 10. This may be too low.
Both the UK and the US have large current account deficits meaning that we are consuming more than we earn. In order to fund that spending we need to sell financial assets (bonds, shares) to foreigners. If foreigners come to think that the UK or the US is a rubbish place, then the currency falls, interest rates could spike and unpleasantness ensue.
That is what happened earlier this year - except that the UK was stuffed (sterling fell lots) and the US did slightly better (slight Dollar strength). But this crucified the likes of Japan - the Yen went through the roof and their export earnings went through the floor. There are two sides to the problem.
What evidence is there? Well foreigners are selling gilts - an obvious sign that they dont trust the currency - but in the greater scheme of things this isnt “proof”, more a straw in the wind.
#26 I wonder why Cameron is less popular than Brown in Scotland? I know he has two qualities that won’t exactly endear him to Scots, but it seems to show that the Tories have a long, long way to go in Scotland before they are even likely to get back to early 1990s levels.
65 Roger. Looks matter. We like to pretend that they don’t or they shouldn’t - but they do. Especially for women. It’s not fair and it’s not big and it’s not clever. But it is the way it is.
Yes we’re all advanced homo sapiens and all that, but at a deeper level we’re all still simple sexual animals (especially Sean T). We have evolved over millenia with preferences. A nice waist to hip ratio foretells fertility. Clean skin, good complexion a healthy body. Big eyes, smiles and a pleasant demeanour. For men broad shoulders seem to be what women prefer. And a sense of humour. And lots of dosh. Is that prejudice or the triumph of eons of experience?
On the negative side - take a look at some criminal mugshots. The crims look, well, like crims. Most stereotypes do, I’m afraid often have more than a grain of truth inside. A tendency towards dishonesty is hard to hide entirely. As the song goes: ‘You can’t hide your lying eyes’.
Is it fair that CEOS are taller and better looking than average? That women get better sex with richer men (which I saw recently in the Guardian). That men go for lookers? That women often go for powerful men? No, no, no, no. Is there a damn thing we can do about it? Also no. Should we even try?
Trust is a BIG thing in politics. So is appeal. And likeability. If you look like a prizefighter then maybe there’s no smoke without fire.
Yes I’m horribly, venally, unforgiveably shallow. I’m human. I find good looking women easier on the eye. Have you never watched any porn? I prefer my politicians and leaders to look like they are trustable, attractive, capable. Going with one’s instincts is no bad thing. One look at Prescott or Beckett or fatty Soames or Brown and the alarm bells start clanging somewhere deep in my awful subconscious.
I’m sure you are perfect.
64, I saw that part of Newsnight. Paxman didn’t ask enough of Croaker, and I don’t think he asked enough of Liam Byrne when he was on the previous night.
53 - Excellent, an honest response.
Daves policy is -
“we shall share the pain but ring fence the NHS budget and the income of millionaires like me”
18 Oh dear, it’s only Morus’ first morning and he’s already been called to the headmaster’s study.
Hope you’ve got that blotting paper stuffed down your trousers boy!
The problem Frazer Nelson has as opposed to say Matthew Parris or Peter Osborne is that he sounds like a Tory spokesman rather than a journalist with Tory leanings. I’m always surprised that he gets so many guest slots on politics programmes
77. Sorry. One too many ‘S’s in Oborne! Freudian slip?
75 - It is obviously more important for you to raise taxes on millionaires than to judge whether they will be:
a) effective in raising tax; or
b) beneficial to the wider economy
Wouldn’t you agree that it is far more important to raise the maximum amount of tax by the most efficient means possible?
The database is the insidious thing.
I have a photo driving licence which is useful for identifying myself, no need for a duplicate, but that is not all that is envisaged.
The government’s track record with data management and safe-keeping is not good let’s face it.
74. Actually Paxo is looking tired and a bit disheveled lately. Probably needs a holiday or coming down with swinish flue or something.
With all this heatwave I need another break too, and I’ve only recently returned.
81, I loathe the heat. I’d rather it were -5 than 30.
76
He needs both volumes of Roy & Clarke (softback - for comfort)
I would say Halliday & Resnick, but that would make him walk funny…
77. A bit like Toynbee then? Or White? Or many many other clearly partisan BBC, Independent and Guardian journalists? Or do they not count Roger?
84, Kevin McBride will be all upset you missed him out.
84. Could add Will ‘talentless’ Hutton as well…
Patrick @ 73 — “looks matter”.
Looks do matter, and during the American presidential election, we discussed research that showed primary results could be predicted by foreign schoolchildren looking only at candidates’ photographs.
But be careful because it is not as straightforward as first appears.
Here for instance is research showing Sarah Palin’s electoral appeal was hurt by the focus on her attractiveness:
http://www.miller-mccune.com/news/sex-appeal-may-have-hurt-sarah-palin-1041
The problem is not that attractive women are perceived as less competent, but that men and women who focussed on Palin’s appearance downgraded her competence.
As the article points out, GOP strategists who highlighted Palin’s visual appeal were hoist by their own petard.
Incidentally, this is consistent with previous research showing appearance matters more in the absence of other information separating the candidates, or policy differences as we used to call them.
79. I understand IHT is one of the most efficient methods of tax-raising, in terms of the cost of the bureaucracy of collecting it against the amount of tax collected.
88 — IHT is one of the most efficient methods of alienating newspaper proprietors and senior journalists whose estates will be hit by it.
71 Ken
Thanks very much for that insight
54 Plato
The Chief operations officer of the East coast line said on R4 at 8.55 That the Govt was NOT taking back the franchise immediately, but that might happen late 2009. It was implied that Lord Adonis has jumped the gun. Some politicking going on here methinks.
81 A number on here have commented recently that Paxo has lost some of his edge. To me, he seems to concentrate a tad too much on Paxo and his owen image, instead of on the interviewee.
Maybe he needs a new challenge, although I would love to see him fronting the Beeb’s election night coverage, in place on Dimbleby.
71. MTF, John L. Addendum. I should have said that PK is positioning himself to say “I was right” if the economy recovers more quickly than consensus. It’s as much about media bragging rights as analysis.
88 - I’m suspicious of that given how easy it is to bypass, but if it is true, logically it should be extended to all estates, regardless of size.
91, Sophie Raworth and Andrew Neil should do the election coverage. Robinson should be replaced by Kuennsberg. Mr. Smithson (the host here, not the horse
) should do the analysis.
92
Ken
Thanks
Fraser Nelson in the Speecie today, for your coffee break reading !!!!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3729558/in-browns-debt.thtml
95 oops Speccie..
Good Morning PBers.
Very sad news to start the day in that it has just been announced on the Beeb that young cancer sufferer Liam Fairhurst died yesterday evening.
Young Liam shot to national prominence through his wonderful fundraising activities, great personality and sheer courage.
Good Bless
http://www.liamfairhurst.com/
90
there is always politicking on the railways.
The government wants money and the ECML is a cash cow.
It used to turn a profit under GNER/Sea Containers but that was not enough for the government
93. I think you do need to factor in how much unproductive activity is generated by trying to avoid it.
On the other hand, if you did that, think of all the lucrative business accountants and sollicitors would lose. Perhaps we should increase IHT to help them through the recession
87 John L. Very interesting. Maybe the perfect look for a female politician is pleasing and trustable but matronly. Judy Dench, Julie Andrews, Helen Mirren, Maggie?, Betty Boothroyd - that sort of thing.
Anyone of either sex who looks more at home as a Lord of the Rings baddie will struggle.
Go on Roger…you know you want to….
Just for info - the Justice Select Committee (which is the one I sit on) agreed to publish a report this morning suggesting postponing elements of the Parliamentary Standards Bill that don’t deal with expenses.
The issue is an arcane one but has an important constitutional background. At present in Britain and most of the English-speaking world, Parliament’s proceedings can’t be cited directly in court. So if I take £10,000 from Mike and then make a speech urging subsidies for political betting without declaring an interest, I can be punished by Parliament but not by the courts (unless there is other evidence of corruption), because my speech is not admissible evidence. The Bill as it stands would remove that apparent anomaly in the context of undeclared financial interests. The snag, suggested by the Clerk of the House, is that it could have a ‘chilling’ influence on debate, if the principle is established that anything MPs say can be used in evidence.
Personally I think we should make it admissible. But it’s quite a big change, and not related to expenses, so there’s a case for saying it needs further debate - certainly some MPs think it a major and risky shift from Parliament to the courts. The Committee compromised by agreeing that we’d point out the possibility of separating out this issue to give it more time.
101, I thought Straw specifically removed the relevant clause to avoid that becoming an issue?
91
I want Sir Robin Day to do the election coverage.
(Nine years dead and he’d still be streaks ahead of the current crop)
14.Patrick, I wouldn’t say that Cameron was good looking, and as for Brown, god no! But Cameron definitely has a more attractive personality than Brown, and that comes across in the media. Also, in this day and age, Cameron comes across as a more modern and hands on hubby and dad. And that is where the votes are, you could see him coping with doing a trip to the supermarket with the kids in tow, and then getting in the kitchen to cook a meal.
Brown comes across as a workaholic who would need careful reminding and directions to these tasks, and only when desperately needed. We all have a friend who has husband or partner like that, and their other half normally has her friends ready to step in and help as back up.
88, efficiency is one criterion of a good tax system, but far from the only one. It also needs to minimise perverse and lost incentives. Money spent trying to minimise tax is wasted money, as per the broken window fallacy, and leaving something to the kids is a powerful motivation, not to be lightly undercut.
There’s also the issue of perceived fairness. Inheritance tax is seen as double taxation, so fails that test.
100 — Harriet Harman!
But remember, it is the focus that did the damage. In the study, Sarah Palin’s appearance did not change, but whether people concentrated on her looks or her personality.
So it is a mistake for Conservative supporters to bang on about Cammo being prettier than Gordo.
Morning all
On topic: It seems to me that Alan Johnson (if indeed it is his decision, which frankly I doubt) seems to have the achieved the remarkable feat of making the ID cards issue even more politically suicidal than it was before. The only conceivable justification for the whole mad idea and the £X billion price tag was as a tool to fight terrorism and crime. Of course, the idea never stacked up, but at least as a motive it made some sense.
Now Johnson has confirmed what the rest of us have been saying: that ID cards cannot be justified on that basis, yet the scheme still continues. Thus proving that (a) either they were lying all along about the justification, or they are lying now; (b) the cost is absolutely ludicrous, relative to the supposed benefits which they are now touting (£6bn+ to provide cards for young drinkers? Are they literally insane?); (c) They must be lying about compulsion, because otherwise it simply doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
The only reason behind the move seems to be to avoid a confrontation with the unions representing airport workers. So that, in turn, just makes Johnson look weak, though I suppose it avoids one short-term problem, at the cost of further longer-term and electoral pain.
And Morus is right: this is a negative for Johnson’s leadership chances, and a reminder that he isn’t terribly good at presentation.
104 Christina. Hadn’t twigged the subconscious (or indeed conscious) ‘good dad’ factor. I’m sure you’re right. Given the key players who read this blog, no doubt there’ll be a spate of ‘out pushing the pram’ photos soon.
I find the problem with TV coverage of elections, is that they put too much emphasis on visual graphics and talking to politicos and not enough on the actual results, how they compare to previous, implications of, etc.
I thought Huw Edwards presented the locals quite well, but the actual production of the programme was crap.
101 Nick - Since you’re here: You may not have seen my post of a couple of threads ago, but the invitation to reply still stands:
NickP - Correct me if I’m wrong, but it looks very much as though New Labour has managed to paint itself into a corner whereby we get all the expense of ID Cards, but not a single one of the original alleged benefits can possibly be attainable.
In other words, without getting into any arguments about the merits or demerits of the original idea, you are literally burning our money on a completely pointless exercise.
I’ll be interested in your response.
106 Yes. I don’t like her politics at all but must admit that Hattie looks fine.
As a lefty authoritarian myself I’m sorry to see ID cards go, the usual crowd of libertarian loonies will of course be cheering. The sort of Libertarian loonies whose ambition is to ensure that this country becomes the sort of place that saves them buying a plane ticket to Thailand. Where is seant these days?
104
Also, in this day and age, Cameron comes across as a more modern and hands on hubby and dad. And that is where the votes are, you could see him coping with doing a trip to the supermarket with the kids in tow, and then getting in the kitchen to cook a meal.
Christ! you fall for any ‘ol s**T don’t you.
54 In the good old days, when the East Coast line was run by GNER, it provided an excellent service. The trains were fast, clean and ran on time, the stations were pleasant - I’m thinking in particular of Newark Northgate which I go through regularly - and the staff were helpful and sensible. Things began to go to pot the moment National Express took over and the first thing that happened was that notices went up telling people that their unattended luggage would be blown up and the members of the public were not to spit. The station is now grubby, the staff are usually notable by their absence and getting information out of anybody is unbelievably difficult and frustrating. The only thing which could possibly make things worse is a Government takeover which is what we now have. Please, please, please can GNER have the franchise back? Anything but the GordonTrainLine.
Has George Osborne put his foot in it?
David Cameron should remove this twit instantly beofre Mandy makes mincemeat out of him
Lord Mandelson has accused George Osborne of a “deliberate untruth” after the shadow chancellor said he was denied access to Government figures.
Yesterday, Mr Osborne said the Tories had been blocked from inspecting a database detailing expenditure in 12,000 key areas.
They requested sight of the so-called Combined Online Information System at two formal meetings earlier this year, but were rejected both times, he said.
However, in a statement today, the First Secretary of State said Mr Osborne’s “very serious allegation” was untrue.
“It’s a very unattractive pattern of behaviour that’s starting to emerge with George Osborne, of innuendo in pursuit of a smear.
“Yesterday George Osborne issued a very serious allegation that the Prime Minister had intervened to deny the Opposition information they were entitled to.
“This claim has been flatly denied by the Cabinet Secretary.”
And Lord Mandelson warned the shadow chancellor to withdraw the allegation.
“I suggest George Osborne withdraws this deliberate untruth to avoid embarassing his leader at Prime Minister’s Questions today.”
microsecond
nanosecond
picosecond
femtosecond
attosecond
What’s briefer than an attosecond?
The time lag between Labour getting re-elected at the GE — God forbid! — and making ID cards compulsory.
Dont. Get. Fooled. Again.
Looks like Dave got, ‘cold feet’
http://m.guardian.co.uk/ms/p/gmg/op/view.m?id=116531&tid=34&cat=topstory
Hmmm that’ll upset Iain Dale.
“As a lefty authoritarian myself I’m sorry to see ID cards go, the usual crowd of libertarian loonies will of course be cheering.”
You think it’s only “libertarian loonies” opposed to ID cards? Were Labour prior to 2001 “libertarian loonies” as well? Is 50-odd per cent of the public “libertarian loonies”?
Save yourself some time — you don’t have to type out “left authoritarian” when “idiot” will suffice.
IDIOT.
114 Herbert - Osborne is simply playing politics, in order to highlight the fact that the government is concealing the cuts it would need to make, if it were re-elected, and to shoot Labour’s fox as regards the ‘what would the Tories cut?’ line.
Entirely predictable and deliberate, as is Mandelson’s over-the-top response.
Nothing to get excited about.
114, oh no, the Paragon of Truth, Mandelson, is attacking Osborne and using the word ’smear’. I’ll never trust Osborne again!
As a national socialist I am delighted to see the East Coast main line back in government hands. I can’t wait to get back to the 1970’s level of service and efficiency.
They should take the West Coast line back into govt hands too - I’m sure then all the wasteful ballast in the trains suck as wifi, buffet cars and seat padding can be stripped out to save on C02 emmissions.
73 Regarding the BBC Scotland poll and Cammo only achieving support from 21% of Scots, that is a vast improvement on any Tory leader since the early days of Margaret Thatcher.
As for returning to our level of the early 90s, in polling terms we are already there and if we come out of the GE with 8 or more constituencies then we will have bettered the 1992 result (when we had 10 out of 72 seats). As long as David Cameron appeals to voters in the 10-15 seats which were once Tory and could become so again within the next decade then he will have achieved more than his 4 predecessors.
Morus, whya re you joining the chorus of those convinced Gordon Brown is planning on taking a dignified exit. If he goes before the GE, it will be the most significant personality change in a man since Saul got sunstroke on the road to Damascus!
Gordon Brown has no intentions of going anywhere. don’t you listen to his band of pigmies? Balls, Cooper and Byrne all spouting the “Gord is Great” mantra without the first clue about basic economics among them.
As for Norwich north, seeing the chinless wonder the Labour party has selected on Newsnight last night, thee are 2 words to sum him up, “total pillock”.
He couldnt even come out with a coherent reason why Ian Gibson had been ditched and him parachuted in. On the strength of last night I reckon Labour will be opposing the LibDems for 5th place 3 weeks tomorrow.
Incidentally, I believe ID cards are compulsory in Thailand.
Effect such cards have had on curbing prostitution and sex tourism?
The same effect Spanish and French ID cards had on al-Qaida bombers. The same effect Italian ID cards have on the Mafia.
Sweet F.A.
Bah it is just a way of doing it on the cheap. It’s got nothing to do with civil liberties!
118 Yet more rose tinted spectacles through which to view the Cameron team.
Richard Nabavi @ 107 “£6bn+ to provide cards for young drinkers? Are they literally insane?”
To go off at a tangent, many New Labour and new establishment types really do seem obsessed by infantilising young adults and then protecting them as children.
For instance, much of the debate on excessive gambling concentrates on preventing underage betting rather than protecting adults from losing the week’s food budget in FOBTs.
So while I doubt it is their primary motivation, many MPs probably would see stopping 16-year-olds nursing a pint of lager all evening to be a worthwhile goal.
114 – What utter nonsense Senior, you are a proper Herbert.
There can be no doubt that Gordon Brown’s appearance has been ravaged by the stress of his two years in the top job.
If a leading politician’s televisual image remains critically important as is said to be the case, I have doubts as to whether Alan Johnson would be Labour’s saviour - a good radio face I would say.
Mandy knows Labour are losing the ‘lies’ issue very badly - so he’s simply picking up the shit that lands on them and flinging it back.
119 MD. I think you’ll find Mandy has been reading PB as “smear” has been thrown around with gay abandon !!
113 Bob Crowe saying “It should be a long-term solution to the chaos that privatisation has brought to the UK’s most lucrative rail franchise” should cause alarm bells to ring. The government would seem to be using the recession that they, in part, created to do a little nationalising for their friends.
124 Jonathan - Are you serious? How can you interpret the phrase ‘Osborne is simply playing politics’ as rose-tinted spectacles?
101 Some of your predecessors suffered, fought and died to free Parliament from the Monarch & the use of Courts to stifle freedoms, it’s the basis of the Constitutional Settlement - not some minor matter and the Clerk was right to point out the implications. Once you have given the right away then how do you defend MPs against libel actions? against criminal prosecutions for leaks using privileged papers and speeches as evidence? Parliament, once sovereign becomes another talking shop, its processes and procedures subject to non-elected bodies and easier for Executive to manage.
“Can someone explain where the info for the biometric passports is to be kept and wht the difference is betweeen that store and the Database.”
It isn’t compulsory to have a passport.
If I change my address, I’m not forced to tell the passport authorities.
The passport database isn’t designed to have the capability to record every time I visit the bank/hospital/post office/etc.
106 John L, women vote for pretty men. In 2001 tony Blair got his second landslide because he was pretty and posh totty whereas William Hague was a bald Yorkshireman with a monotonous voice. Had Hague looked and sounded like Cammo, Blair’s majority would have been much lower.
Morning all. Just done a YouGov with a voting intention question and with questions about if the Tories and Labour were being honest about spending cuts and what would either party would do in that regard if they won the election.
118.
It is all good hype for todays PMQ’s though, however Osborne will look his usual uncomfortable self on the Opposition front bench.
Methinks John Bercow will have fun and games at PMQ’s……Order,order let the Prime Minister finish
112 - You are Stalin and I claim my £5
137, Stalin was smart.
coldstone is just plain stoopid.
126. Is HP Senior a distant cousin of Mark Senior?
134 Easterross carries a torch for Dave. True lurve.
135.
I think YouGov will be a lot more accurate than the “Comres Toytown” usual rubbish !
I think the next Yougov will be Con 41, Lab 24, LIb 21
114. And we believe Mandy because….?
118 - Osbornes lie was rather transparent
Re Dave and gay pride.
Anyone would think he had just got into bed with a homphobic political party and is ashamed
132. Last sentence correct Ted, that is indeed the purpose of this and so many other proposals - to turn parliament into something resembling the old Supreme Soviet. Hence the appeal for Nick, no doubt.
ID cards were favoured by Michael Howard, were they not, when he was leader of the Conservative Party?
141 “Others” down to 14%? I very much doubt that.
114 - Thr Tory’s were right about McBride & his contacts with Labour, it will be an interesting PMQs, but it adds to the view that blocking access to the database shows that Labour are keeping the truth about their cuts from the electorate.
115. Zeptosecond = 1/1000 of an attosecond (about a third of the time it takes for light to travel the diameter of an electron).
Yoctosecond = 1/1000 of a zeptosecond.
Politicans arguing over ‘untruths’ on trivial matters is a bit like two bald men arguing over a comb.
122
I’m sure your an, ‘expert’ on Thailand, it’ll be your spiritual home, if not your actual one.
Done a Yougov this morning. Voting intention and cuts/honesty questions.
143 And there speaks tim, pb.coms very own arbiter of truth and honesty. How’s that article going? Or are you too busy ‘down on billionaires farm’ this morning to put the electronic quill to digital parchment?
I somehow sense PMQs today could be quite dramatic.
Maybe that’s just because Mike is away!
151. Ooooooo…. I’m not sure who that would be for? The next expected poll is Populus/Times next Monday night. Sometime The Sun commision YouGov polls occasionally, so its maybe them?
137
Talking of £5.00, on this day, Ghost of……, will be popping his into a charity box somewhere. His predicition that by the end of June the SE would be below 3500, was somewhat wide of the mark.
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially if its about the future’
Could be one of the Sundays or it could just be a private poll.
151,154 The Oncoming Storm also reported on this poll in post #135 above.
Easteross @ 134 on pretty politicians.
women vote for pretty men. In 2001 tony Blair got his second landslide because he was pretty and posh totty whereas William Hague was a bald Yorkshireman with a monotonous voice. Had Hague looked and sounded like Cammo, Blair’s majority would have been much lower.
Yes but if the Conservatives had won, people would say it was because Hague had a deep, masculine voice whereas Blair’s higher pich and whispering delivery sounds a bit effeminate. We need to be a bit careful about backfitting old results.
I doubt in general elections, it makes much difference. We vote for parties not presidents. Mayoral elections, and even party leadership elections are a different kettle of fish, and personal characteristics should matter more there.
So there you have it: Bercow is Speaker because he is more attractive than Sir George Young and MPs are the world’s least sophisticated electorate.
148 Try Planck time, roughly 1 rimto (10^-44) second. Anything smaller is (probably) unphysical.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plank_time
Don’t be quite so quick to assume that women who vote because they like the looks of a particular person are behaving in a shallow way. Women have been programmed, since we first came down from the trees, to choose their partners not only because they’re dishy but also because they believe they can trust them to be good fathers and good providers. Many of them get it wrong, of course, but more get it right and in either event it’s not a shallow choice, it’s one which will have serious longterm consequences for them and for their children. So if they vote in the same way, it’s probably no bad thing.
My very aged stepmother said of Tony Blair when he first stood waving at the crowds in Downing Street that there would be tears before bedtime because he looked like a liar to her. I disagreed with her at the time. She likes Cameron, however, on the novel grounds that he looks like a good, clean-living boy. She also thinks Clegg looks like Private Pike, that Brown should be in therapy and that Balls reminds her of one of Hitler’s henchmen but she can’t remember which.
158. I thought Blair’s appeal was that he reminded a lot of younger women of their gay friends?
158 I think increasingly people vote for the party that happens to be attached to the leader they like - and not, as you suggest, for parties. The next GE is Dave vs Gord much more than it is Tory vs Labour. In a practical sense this is true as the party leaders have huge (IMHO excessive) power over their parties.
121. Easterross, Even worse in Glasgow NE, Labour running scared and putting it off till November, so people have 5 months without an MP, scandalous.
143. Tim (aka Browns a4rse licker)
Just for your info you clueless t4at, Brown isn’t going either he was invited though ! Cameron has a constituency function but did attend a function with them last night!
Get your facts right you stupid w4nker
163. Really that just increases the case for having by-elections automatically set for 3 months after the MP’s death or resignation, with a longer period if the date is too close to Christmas.
158 it is one of the reasons so many Tory Associations historically went for young men in their early 30s witha wife and 2.3 children. The blue rinse matrons on the committees always thought of the sort of nice young chap they would want their daughters to bring home or their sons to rodger!
I remember once being told I had failed to get selected in the last round because although I was the better looking, the other chap was married with 4 children and anyway I was wearing far too expensive a brand of aftershave.
As it happens the other chap went on to have the worst result of any Tory candidate in that constituency in 50 years.
Mandy in the studio. George Osborne playing man rather than the ball. A pattern of behaviour developing. Dave the same at PMQs. Personal attacks. Suggestion, innuendo. Should concentrate on issues.
164 – Wayne, from your dulcet tones and choice turn of phrase, am I right in thinking you went to Harrow?
160 “She likes Cameron, however, on the novel grounds that he looks like a good, clean-living boy.”
He has certainly worked very, very, very hard to project that image.
There’s no real evidence to suggest it’s authentic. An unnamed respected Tory on this site once told me having met Cameron he instinctively disliked him and thought “I’m watching you”. Reports from his forays outside the Tory ranks are not great.
Appearances can be deceptive. Washing up for the cameras is one thing.
There will (hopefully) be an article out this evening on pbc which considers the effect of looks (or one aspect of them) on political success.
164 Don’t hold back wayne! Is there anything you need to get off your chest this morning? You seem a little edgy.
149. I remember G Osborne asking to see the books and being refused during a BBC Parliment Treasury debate.
161 Runnymede he reminded many gay men of their gay friends.
The hypocrisy of the “unellected one” is just staggering, Osborne has a right to see the figures old Lord Snake Hips is just running scared ! Go on George call their bluff and demand them.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Lord-Mandelson-Has-Accused-George-Osborne-Of-A-Deliberate-Untruth-Over-Access-To-Govt-Figures/Article/200907115326577?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15326577_Lord_Mandelson_Has_Accused_George_Osborne_Of_A_Deliberate_Untruth_Over_Access_To_Govt_Figures
173. Yes I imagine so,,,,
168, 171.
Well he makes me cringe …. You can only ignore him for so long!
160. Sounds as if she is very good at judging peoples characters.
167 Me thinks Mandelson is rattled this morning. Is he worried that the ‘liar’ accusation may have some traction in the media, and start sticking to Brown & Co?
169. Jonathan. Washing up for the cameras is one thing
Yes it is. But so was the look into his private life the whole nation got when his son died. I don’t think a moment of that was faked or insincere. Politicans work on their image - its their job FFS. Dave may be tougher or sharper in real life than he appears. He’s going to need to be! Doesn’t mean he isn’t a loving dad or a good husband.
179 The same applies to Gordon Brown
Re pretty men, it doesn’t explain Eric Heffer. Everyones dreamboat
99.999% of people only care about the ‘image’, not what’s beneath.
Serve tap water in a fine crystal decanter and people will say it tastes like Evian. Pour Evian from an old tin can and people will insist the water tastes foul.
‘Twas ever thus, and Brown is not going to overcome that.
180. Who does GB remind the voters of? No-one they like, obviously
167.
I hope we see more of the real “unellected one” PM on television, apparently even Labour people hate Lord snake hips, interesting that Labour are polling at even lower levels since he has been back in the front line = Lets see more of The “unellected one”
183 During the death of his daughter?
177 My mother has always been convinced that Blair and Mandelson are/were more than friends and that was the reason Blair let Mandelson away with so many misdemeanours.
After the GE I am starting to think we need a Truth Commission at which Blair, Brown, Mandelson and others should be compelled to appear and answer for 12 years of lies and incompentence. But then again I would probably sentence all 3 to death. I know, soft leftie that I am.
180 I accept that too. Brown’s public persona could not be worse. I hear in private he comes across differently.
170 DH. Can I charge roylaties?
178. The liars label is super-glued on. Labour are not going to be able to shift it because it is true. If they don’t like being called liars they should stop lying.
160: “Balls reminds her of one of Hitler’s henchmen but she can’t remember which.”
Perhaps Martin Bormann
Compare:
http://www.s9.com/Biography/Bormann-Martin
with
http://www.politics.co.uk/mps/government/children-and-schools-secretary-$475739.htm
Tim,
You forgot to mention this. Labour are doing so many u turns they will soon dissapear up their own a4rse’s
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/davis_id_cards_died_a_death_by_a_thousands_cuts.html
180. Difference is we know Brown is a lying , cheating , no hoper. Dave has yet to be found out so at worst gets the benefit of the doubt at least of being a nice chap. We can at least hope with him , whereas we have no hope with Brown.
186. Reminds me of that dreadful TV series from years ago ‘Triangle’…
Wonderful. Mobile broadband works fine on the ship.
I like the Mandy-Osborne row - all good fun and it’s no wonder that Labour did their best to destroy Osborne last year. George can be very dangerous finding lines that can resonate.
The great joy is that we’ve nearly eleven months of this to look forward to - and much better than focussing on all that boring policy crap.
Yeah, but at least ‘Triangle’ had Kate O’Mara sunbathing nude…
187. You can try charging roy whatever you like!
185. What’s remarkable Jonathan is how little sympathy Brown got from that - I wonder why?
160
She likes Cameron, however, on the novel grounds that he looks like a good, clean-living boy.
Hmmm thats the good clean-living boy, who was nearly thrown out of Eton for pot-smoking, and whose been a, ‘little cagey’ about his, ‘habits’ since, Although I think he’s given up, giving up smoking.
187 But then again Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Napoleon, Attila, Genghis Khan and Hannibal Lecter could all be charming in private too. The issue was really about an apperarance of being a good dad having a non-zero impact on female voting patterns - was it not? Image matters.
Wow, Ed’s got a good photographer.
I thought that was Tony, Cherie and Carol!!
188.
Absolutely…. And the Lies Vs Honesty issue is going to be a big big issue right up to the election. If you went out on the streets now and asked any 10 people which of the above label’s applies to Labour, what do you think the responses would be ?
195 Very good!
200. All so complicated isn’t it? Like a French farce
Coldstone, Mandy has just told you to concentrate on the issues.
204, like Q1 GDP slumping by 2.4%, or the trillion pounds of debt?
194 didn’t Carol Caplin do the same? Certainly she and Cherie showered together
Lessons in honesty from Lord Voldemort will be hilarious. When Mandy gets menacing it just makes him appear even worse.
A great scare tactic on your own side - bad PR with Joe Public.
Wonder what Cameron will go for at PMQs? Honesty, ID cards, economy - something else?
204
You stick to your, ‘issues’ I’ll stick to mine.
206. Where did the Australian conman fit in?
“Who does GB remind the voters of? No-one they like, obviously”
Getting up for work on a rainy Monday morning !
OT Amazing rescue http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1196722/The-moment-construction-worker-dangled-crane-pluck-drowning-woman-river.html?ITO=1490
Where were all these LOPS (’Lefties Outraged by Pot-Smokers’) during the Clinton years?
OK, but try to avoid sticking to Mandy’s tissues.
Frazer Nelsons story on Newnight last night about Balls ringing him up ranting and raving was funny. Balls sounds a nutty as Brown!
17-The desire by some swivel eyed libertarians to abolish the age of consent and legalise sex with children would fill that spot.
Isn’t that what the Labour party tried to do, at least in part. Lower age of consent so you could have sех with schoolboys?
NuLabour the party of swivelled eyed libertarian loons.
212. The same place all the lefties against sexual harassment were both then and during l’affaire Prescott.
216
Where were all the ‘Gay Tories’ when the Tory government passing anti-Gay legislation?
217 Closeted.
217, 216 et passim - All you’re all proving, extremely well, is that partisan political junkies are incorrigible hypocrites.
217 I think they crossed the floor and now sit in the cabinet.
217. Busy marrying wealthy heiresses I expect
Yeah! we all remember how, ‘honest’ over their sexuality Gay Tories were.
Brown was the first openly gay Conservative MP following his ‘outing’ by the News of the World in 1994. The story showed Brown on holiday in Barbados with a 20-year-old man at a time when the age of consent for gay sex was 21, and the News of the World’s headline read “lawmaker is lawbreaker”[citation needed]. Brown resigned as a junior government whip but the story nevertheless ran on for some time, at a period when the Major government was embroiled in a series of sex and financial scandals. He was also tarnished by his involvement in the ‘cash for questions’ allegations.
Michael Brown of course, so we’ll have less of this dishonesty business, in that case the, ‘law’ was broken.
Don’t worry about gay politicians in the old days: they had plenty of nice young friends who worked at the Soviet embassy.
116
‘Looks like Dave got, ‘cold feet’
Is Brown going instead?
212. Or indeed the Obama years - he has been completely open about his youthful cocaine use. It’s a non-issue in this day and age and it is pathetic that tim and coldstone continue to harp on about it.
217 Rescuing dogs from the Thames.
“Where were all the ‘Gay Tories’ when the Tory government passing anti-Gay legislation?”
Where were all the ‘Gay Labourites’ when Bush’s Republicans were pumping out anti-gay rhetoric?
209 wasn’t Peter the Property expert buying the bargain flats in Brighton for Cherie?
217 sadly they were hiding because in those days our party was hypocritical, just like society at large.
228 - I think you will find it was Bristol, rather than Brighton due the fact the kids were at University there.
Certainly a great many Tories have been against homosexuality and even, most egregiously, campaigned for it to be recriminalised.
But so have many Republicans.
Given that Labour was happy to ally with the latter, how loudly should it complain about the former?
I have to say that I feel sorry for Osborne.
Theres a pattern to his whole life, trying to appeal to the really posh lads but getting laughed at and called oik, I’m sure this explains his over egging of the data story as it explains the yacht business.
Sadly when it came down to it they just pitied him more, confirmed in the belief that he lacks style.
He did the same again yesterday trying to bring his children into a question on education funding.
Seemingly forgetting that he’d taken his child out of a very good state primary.
Poor oik.
Not comfortable in his own skin.
228 Bristol not Brighton. Don’t think they turned out to be much of a sound investment either.
229 Simon you are quite correct. When one lives more than 600 miles to the north, all these provincial south-west cities sound the same
224
GB never said he would!but his wife is.
Dave obviously thought better of it, photos of him in the, ‘Mail’ may not have ‘gorn’ down well with the, ‘faithful’
232 Indeed, supremem irony that Cherie was conned by a conman!! Laugh, I nearly split my sides. Given how much personal wealth I and others like mehave lost under Blair/Brown, bankruptcy would be too good for them both.
230
Errr! I think ‘yer pushing your luck with that line of argument?
231 Tim, were you in Berkeley, or at Berkeley?
234, could be worse. At least he isn’t going to an easily rescheduled Liaison Committee meeting to avoid signing off on the European Constitution and then turning up several hours late to look exactly like a moron.
231
Boy oh boy, Labour must be REALLY frightened by George Osborne. PB is a really informative site.
237 - And even more cruelly, when Oik goes to work the really posh boys make him sit next to the man who published all the embarrassing photographs of him.
231 Tim, Osborne has more style in his pinky finger than you have in your entire body. Apart from that his dad makes damn fine, if expensive wallpaper, so popular with the Labour luvvies who are about the only people who can afford to buy it.
237, neither.
Just a berk.
233: Brighton’s suddenly lurched 200odd miles to the West now? Tranported to Dorset maybe, as that county always seems a bit short of cities.
You will be quite dangerous, tim, when you get your hands on the id card data base.
Jealousy must come easy to a ceaseless propagandist who never leaves his basement.
234. Who is Gordon Brown’s wife?
I often wonder what happened on that boat last summer which made Lord Fop so angry. Did Gideon tell him to stick his brazilian where the sun doesn’t shine!!
231 tim, you clearly consider Osborne to be utterly useless as a politician, yet you’re continually attacking him on this website. Surely if he was that inept, you’d be better off allowing him to flounder around by himself, and directing your energies against another more deserving target?
Unless of course the opposite is true. Hmmm.
No need — tim already has his hands on the Draperbase.
Just logged on, any news of an ETA on the SmearBot article?
246
Mrs Brown!
Interesting article from the ES.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23714172-details/The+campaign+has+begun+-+with+a+slanging+match/article.do
243 Sussex is simply somewhere down there to someone like me. After all to most of England Manchester is the far north and it isn’t even the centre of the country.
243. 200 miles west from Brighton would take you almost to Plymouth, overshooting Dorset comfortably
247
Tut tut!hmmm, touch of the ‘ol Tory Homophobia coming out there, you’ll be reaching for ‘yer inner, Jim Davidson’ next.
‘Did you ‘ere the one about the Gay Gordons etc’
252 - Manchester is the far north. The centre of the country is London.
I beginning to think that tim must have gone to a minor public school.
253: Clearly I was talking in country mile terms
I don’t recall John Prescott having any problem with enjoying the hospitality of a fundie Republican campaigner against gay rights.
Isn’t Britain just
(a) Westminster
(b) the other bit where the taxpayers live?
258: He just wanted his cowboy hat….
Boris Johnson has come in for a bit of criticism from the Guardian over his taxi bill, wracking up a wapping bill of £4.500 since becoming Mayor. So I did some digging…!
Still sounds an awful lot of money but then I don’t live in London and have a very dull social life; however the receipts were released by the Mayor’s office and as he said when elected “he would be open and transparent – for good or for bad”
Back to the digging bit, Boris said “We have made significant savings, such as cutting the media budget by £700,000 and closing down the office in Venezuela, saving £100,000.”
Add in the £10k for cancelling that commie rag ‘Morning Star” and Boris seems like value for money to me. Unless you know something different Coldstone.
http://www.boris-johnson.com/
re 231. Tim - nobody kicks a dead dog.
258. Well there was free food I expect.
261 - A wapping bill for taxis.
He should release the receipts for the rest of London too.
265 Ho ho ho. Tim, the poster who put the wit into twit.
I must confess, I’m really looking forward to that article now - bring it on!
I’m looking forward to Prime Minister’s Questions. On the assumption that Lord Mandelson’s attack on George Osborne is part of a planned attack, we can expect to see Gordon Brown go on the offensive as a soldier for truth. Will he be bayoneted by David Cameron? It looks likely to be a very high octane session.
Just watched Newsnight - Gove and Coaker really were having a pointless spat.
Paxo did look very bored indeed.
Going back to the point on attractiveness, I rarely think about politicians in this way [thank God] but my immediate reaction to Gove was that he’d be a crap wet kisser.
I notice that Michael Martin has got his Peerage, not sure it is wise to be called Lord Trougher of done fiddling though!
267. ‘bayoneted’?
“we can expect to see Gordon Brown go on the offensive as a soldier for truth.”
I thought that phrase was TM and copyright Gabble..?
MP 63:Derek Wyatt the latest rat to leave 2005 intake
John Austin John Battle Colin Burgon Richard Caborn Colin Challen Ben Chapman David Chaytor Michael Clapham Harry Cohen Frank Cook Jim Cousins Ann Cryer John Cummings Quentin Davies Janet Dean
Bill Etherington Neil Gerrard Ian Gibson John Grogan
Patricia Hewitt Keith Hill Beverley Hughes John Hutton Brian Iddon Adam Ingram Lynne Jones Martyn Jones Ruth Kelly Fraser Kemp
David Lepper Chris McCafferty Ian McCartney Rosemary McKenna
Bob Marshall-Andrews Eric Martlew Alan Milburn Margaret Moran
Elliot Morley Kali Mountford Chris Mullin Doug Naysmith
Bill Olner Greg Pope Bridget Prentice John Prescott Ken Purchase John Reid Martin Salter Mohammad Sarwar Alan Simpson
John Smith Helen Southworth Ian Stewart Gavin Strang David Taylor
Mark Todd Des Turner Kitty Ussher Rudi Vis Alan Williams
Betty Williams Tony Wright
267. rarely have two leaders faced eachother at the despatch box who have disliked eachother more.
they are both now calling eachother “liars” effectively.
267. Surely Brown will try and bring second jobs into his responses? Of course no doubt Palmer will provide the planted first question!
They don’t like it up em ! (can’t speak for Mandy though !)
Oh didums it looks like Lord Snake Hips, aka The Unnelected One is getting a little bit upset about poor little Gordon getting a bit of Tory GBH !
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/mandelson_osborne_playing_the_man_not_the_ball.html
BBC reporting another Lab MP ’standing down’ before being thrown out at the GE.
Derek Wyatt - maj of 79.
Toast is not the word.
Where is Gabble?
272. Labour rats only**
I would say though that something seems to have stired up another round of huge job losses in the last week. Another 900 gone today…..
These heralded green shoots look like a load of bull as i have always thought they were.
Judge Crater
Jimmy Hoffa
Shergar
Amelia Earhart
Lord Lucan
Ricky Edwards
Gabble
This Parliament of the damned and nearly dead grows by the day.
The smell of decomposing political careers in the house must be overwhelming in this heat.
277. One of the job losses, perhaps?
273 - I love the angry Dave act.
He’ll go early this week.
271.
“Brown a soldier of truth” That more like saying the SS knew nothing about what was going on and were only their for the money !
275. Crikey, you would never have thought he liked telling tales about his holidays:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01209/mandelson-brown_1209751c.jpg
275 “He wants to blur that fundamental choice between the two parties and I think that we should be debating, not getting into the gutter with George Osborne making these completely unfounded claims about the Prime Minister.”
Unfounded claims? What that the PM is a liar?
Mandy is playing a dangerous game - Gordon’s closet is stuffed with them.
If Osbourne can’t prove Brown blocked the information then Cameron should come out and say it was wrong and said in the heat of the moment and apologise. Then he can make clear again the difference between Labour and Tory - one are a bunch of liars who can’t even apologise, the other are being honest and admit when they make a mistake.
286. Not to mention Peter Mandelsons.
279 So that they have some cost-cutting activity to include in their half-year reporting?
287 The Cabinet Sec works for Gordon - the CS blocked it QED Gordon blocked it.
In any case it’s irrelevant - just another box ticked that HMG are secretive and hiding information about how OUR money is being spent.
280 Alistair Darling
For betting on the next Labour leadership this Sky story is very relevant indeed:
http://tinyurl.com/nvz6ze
Cruddas positioning himself very cleverly, I think.
287 – “Osbourne” is non U according to the farmer.
Won’t the rather simple riposte to any attempt to call George Osborne out on this be for David Cameron to ask Gordon Brown if he will give permission for the Conservatives to look at the books? If Gordon Brown says no, he looks like a complete idiot/liar and if he says yes, the Tories have the access they asked for.
287. Alistair, Croakers reluctance to cough up the figures shows it is a politically inspired scheme by Gordon Brown and his government.
Coaker could have accepted the request on Newsnight for the figures, he refused. Would be Surprised now if the Tories did not write to various Ministers asking for the figures.
Indeed if Brown brings it up at PMQs, I would shoot Brown down with a request for the figures and advise a written request was coming. Would Brown provide the info Yes/No?
Regarding the blocking of this financial info, repeat after me the New Labour saying,
“Nothing to hide, nothing to fear”
292 Cruddas is a breath of fresh air. I wonder if he wrote that Blair quote
Incidentally, has anybody else here read up on Amelia Earhart’s disappearance? A sad and fascinating story, particularly the tantalisingly-unproven theory that she and her co-pilot managed to make it as far as a then-uninhabited Pacific island, only to die there as castaways waiting for a rescue which never came.
297. Shame he’s going to lose his seat, isn’t it? He could have led Labour back to its roots, and to a solid 20% vote share.
I thought Cruddas’ seat was under threat?
He’d be one of Labour’s best hopes though.
292 Very interesting article - and he’s right too. How Labour play the nasty Tory card is tricky after all the McBride stuff.
Me thinks that Mandy accusing Osborne of playing the man not the ball was very stupid bearing in mind what the PMs hard man was doing…
When Smeargate was front and centre - many thought Labour would learn from it - clearly not.
294 antifrank
Quite. No-one will take seriously the suggestion that the Civil Service is somehow independent of government on questions like this - why should they be? If Brown tells them to release it, they’ll release it. Simple as that.
However - there is zero chance of Brown doing that. Osborne and Cameron realise that of course.
So they’ve now engineered a situation where, whenever Labour try their line of ‘what would you cut?’, they’ll be able to say they don’t have the information because Labour refused to give it. Simple enough.
BTW Your spread bet on the return of SeanT is looking a big loser!
297 - I’d vote Labour in his constituency. British democracy would be improved by him being in the next Parliament.
295.
Martin,
“Indeed if Brown brings it up at PMQs, I would shoot Brown down with a request for the figures and advise a written request was coming. Would Brown provide the info Yes/No?”
Yes it should be requested, No I don’t think Cameron will ask for it and No I don’t think Brown would provide it if he was asked for it.
But Cameron would be Very wise “politically” to request it.
299.
Do you think he will loose his seat then ? He is one of the better of the bunch.
302 - It’s a good job that SPIN don’t have markets in deflouncing or I’d be looking for new accommodation on the Embankment.
292 Marcus - But that’s an old article, from March.
301 - Osborne playing the man?
Only in Bugsy Malone
If Tories really wanted detailed spending info Cameron should have asked Brown at PMQs…he wouldn’t be able to think on his feet & would bluster. Media would then have accussed of Brown hiding the info and after 5 days bad headlines Tories would have got what they wanted.
Mr Osbourne went through the proper channels & showed culture of secrecy still in operation, whilst not getting the info & getting alibi as to why Tories cannot give detailed spending pledges.
Win Win.
Morning all - just to say I’m off out to a graduation this afternoon. New thread for 11:55 to cover PMQs traffic, and then David Herdson post for later this afternoon.
Comment moderation might be a little slow, but hopefully not too bad.
304. Wayne
Yes, should be interesting to see what happens!
308 tim ???? How is Osborne acting like the head of a ganster outfit?
310 Cue massive traffic spike at 11:54:59 seconds in race to be FIRST!
313 - The same thought crossed my mind
Will this gem be brought up at PMQ’s
From Nick Robinson’s blog
There is, of course, an underlying tale here which has nothing whatsoever to do with public spending.
Remember “Yachtgate”? It was triggered when George Osborne was not terribly discreet about a private chat he had with Peter Mandelson before he had any clue that he would be returning to government.
Mandelson did not appreciate that breach of confidentiality. Ministers believe that Osborne has similarly abused the private chats he’s had with the governor of the Bank of England and, now, the cabinet secretary.
I will now make way for the new thread and watch “Punch and Judy” otherwise PMQ’s……..enjoy
307 Oh well, still good. Must have missed it at the time.
315 - Last time this happened we got a photo released by one of oiks friends
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_1zLNV2F_hRE/SeHyuXAiKkI/AAAAAAAABXs/Bxon2EROb7k/s400/george+osborne.jpg
269.
“I notice that Michael Martin has got his Peerage”
Does that make it ‘Lord Martin Day?’
What odds on ‘Barren (sic) Gorbals of Philmapokets in the bounty of Straffclyde’?
312.
“How is Osborne acting like the head of a ganster outfit”
You never see Bugsy Malone?
Is the Purple Heart-lite more evidence of American consultants at Number Ten?
Toenails repeating Labour’s old smears; this commenter hits the nail on the head and could do a far better job than Nick Robertson imho.
“You’re at it again. “Whitehall sources”? Ministers and/or Spin Doctors you mean. Also, why the repeat of the “boasted” description from your interview? No independent observer would see Osborne’s answers as boasting, rather there is a lot of anger at the scorched earth policy being practiced by Brown, which we will be paying for for decades.
Whilst you are right in your assertion that truth and honesty will be an important issue on which this Government will be judged at the ballot box, you cloud it with reference to Yachtgate. Let us not forget that that was a beautifully orchestrated campaign by Mandelbum to smear Osborne and which you followed slavishly.
The rather more important issue over and above Osborne’s naiivety was the underlying unanswered question about Mandelbum and Deripaska and those EU aluminium tariffs. Any answers?”
“attractive”
I have pondered this myself. Attractive female politicians have a handicap, in the sense that people assume they are shallow; people generally assume that attractive people are shallow, at least in the UK. This applies to men and women equally. Film critics have never respected Robert Redford, because he is too good-looking. On the other hand, Walter Matthau has never been accused of being too good-looking, but critics respected him. It is hard to draw parallels with the world of politics, because British political history has very few good-looking people. Good-looking politicians of the past were handicapped by moustaches and other facial hair. There were no good-looking politicians in the 1970s or 1980s, with the exception perhaps of Michael Heseltine, who was frequently mocked for being too virile.
I surmise that over time the standard of attractiveness in the British media has gone up - the audience demands that newsreaders and weatherpeople are good-looking - to a point where we are not beginning to compete with the impeccably high standards of the US media. British society in general is becoming more presentable and more concerned with appearance, because it has greater access to US media and US neuroses.
The trick for a politican is to be good-looking enough to attract attention, but not too good-looking that he or she seems unnatural. It is easy, for example, to characterise the current and generally good-looking Conservative front bench as something akin to Duran Duran, with Labour as Dexys Midnight Runners. I enjoy both bands, but if the soul of music was at threat I would want Dexys Midnight Runners on the front line.
This is in general a complex topic, too complex to cover in a blog comment that will in any case become obsolete the moment the next thread is posted. Suffice it to say that Britain has a long track record of glamour models standing in by-elections, and they tend to attract few votes. Their policies are probably no less well-developed than those of the kind of people who win votes, but they simply do not have gravitas. We are conditioned by the media to associated gravitas with generally old people such as e.g. Morgan Freeman, and as long as the public associated the appearance of gravitas with political acumen, good-looking politicans will always have a handicap.
PMQs. Public spending increases of 0%. Now there’s a novel one from Brown
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8128082.stm
The BBC round up of bloggers on ID cards.