Will this obliterate all other stories?
July 2nd, 2009
Could Swine Flu prove the joker in the pack?
Looking at the Politics Home news charts, which measures the column inches of each major story, the largest rises are the news that Shadow Chancellor George Osborne is to be investigated over his expenses, and that Health Secretary Andy Burnham has warned the Commons that Britain could see 100,000 cases of Swine Flu per day by August.
Like BSE and Foot’n'Mouth in years past, nothing dominates news coverage like a domestic disease epidemic. If Burnham’s statement proves to be accurate, this could dominate coverage for weeks eclipsing stories like Osborne’s expenses or the police investigations into other MPs.
Let us not also forget that Brown tends to experience a bounce in the face of massive (perceived) crises - so it was in the moments of greatest panic about the Economic Downturn, and his initial months saw him bask - not only in the honeymoon of a new leader - but in his sober and sure-footed response to floods and the terrorist attack on Glasgow airport.
We’ve not had any discussion of it yet on PB.com, but could Swine Flu be a significant factor in the political machinations of the coming months?
Morus
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Not unless the mortality rate rises significantly.
another interesting story from Morus, and I won’t say “first”…
Labour are the Swines ! The flu is just a bolt on
Broon rubbing his hand in anticipation.
1- it almost definitely will. This is going to be a very nasty virus indeed.
In the current media narrative, you know, the NHS will have made some mistakes,tis inevitable, and the mistakes will be laid squarely at the governments door
You can just hear Brown saying that swine flu, which came from America, has been unprecedented.
Probably not if people aren’t very exercised about it. So far I and a number of people I know have been in fairly close proximity to outbreaks, suspected infections and sufferers and no one yet has seemed terribly worried. We may all be wrong and dead next week but so far I haven’t seen anything approaching panic outside of the tabloids.
8- maybe you want to have a look inside PCT’s to appreciate what a threat this presents to us.
First Denmark, now Japan. This’ll give the panic-merchants something to chew on.
Er… how many million doses have we got?
http://www.reuters.com/article/internal_ReutersNewsRoom_ExclusivesAndWins_MOLT/idUSTRE5614TW20090702
I do like Jeff Randall
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/5725324/Gordon-Browns-attack-on-Tory-cuts-has-backfired-in-spectacular-fashion.html
5 - I don’t know about that.
The NHS and the government seem prepared, the BBC reports it calmly, Liam Donaldson is as calm and logical as you could wish for, and none of us have to worry about our neighbours avoiding health advice because they have no health insurance.I suspect this will be a “quietly pleased to be British” disease.
And even better, like heavy snow,power cuts and christmas it gives us an excuse to talk to each other on buses.
I think it will depend on whether the government is seen to be in a position to be doing something about it. The new approach of giving up on containment doesn’t give me much confidence yet.
There’s been no explanation for why the UK figures are so much worse by a factor of ten than anywhere else in Europe, and why indeed the UK figures have now overtaken every country outside North America.
Just what is the mortality rate aamongst healthy, well-fed people right now?
Swine flu will have little impact until on the media narrative until people start dropping dead from it. So far, fewer have died than from conventional flu, some people still think it only affects pigs and the rest think it another scare story to flog more papers.
It’s the back lash to twelve years of media driven hype, people switch off …. “Weeks of coverage” err, no, unless Joanna Lumley is the next victim of course.
“sure-footed response to floods”
Pure spin. Check out those people still homeless before ridiculous statements like that.
13. In the UK and Europe, low. Correction - very low. Practically all the deaths have been in patients with existing under-lying health problems.
You are on the wrong track here Morus.
Finance and Debt will be the stories of the Summer and Autumn. Today the US markets almost went into freefall. See:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31706105
Dow dropped 214.25 points today or 2.52%.
SNP and Nasdaq were equally affected.
All the Experts expected Wall St and the City to be on the mend by now, profits have been made, yes, but on the backs of still unpaid debt. Untill the debts start to be repaid this ressession will plumet into a reall depression. This is what Gordo in GB and Obama in the USA dont understand and will itseems, never understand.
It’s only a matter of time before an MP gets infected.
Has anyone seen stated how many cases of regular flu one can expect per day during the winter months?
18 - I thought swine were the source?
17. Willing to bet on that? I offer £100 at evens that the recession will end before either US or UK debt falls below, say, 70% of GDP?
I think it could easily be a big story - and to be fair, the government has handled it well so far.
The main problem has been the delay in setting up a dedicated flu helpline - but if that is done before the mega-escalation, it won’t harm them much.
But few are going to die from the current strain.
Things could go bad either if a mutated strain resistant to T@miflu starts spreading, or if a mutated strain which is more virulent starts spreading, or worst of all, both.
Nope.
Swine flu is less dangerous than normal flu, IIRC three people have died of it as a complicating factor, if it does kick-off HMG has 60m doses of Tamiflu on the blocks.
When I saw the thread picture I thought - another thread on Osborne and the other members of the shadow cabinet with snouts in the expenses trough .
Well an epidemic at the time of the GE would have a dramatic effect on turn-out, and it might even become necessary to postpone the GE for public health reasons.
18. Oh, I don’t know, even pestilence has to draw the line somewhere.
17.I apologise for any miss-spelling
21. i.e. falls back below 70% after going over
17 I seem to recall several Tory doomsters on here forecasting that the FTSE would fall in June to below 4,000 . Every time the Dow or FTSE has a bad day along come you and others forecasting apocalypse noe , when the markets have a good day you wuietly say nothing .
21/27. Dates Socrates. Something tangible.
At what date in the future do you say that the recession will end in the UK?
23. LOL!
Isn’t swine flu already on the wane in Mexico, where it first struck big time?
31 - I believe so. Not a reason to be cocky about this, but an encouraging sign.
Given that it looks as though Obama is thankfully serious about winning the military campaign in Afghanistan and the elections are due in August, theres another big story.
29. I wasn’t picking up on dates, I was picking up on your “Untill the debts start to be repaid this ressession will plumet into a reall depression”
I’m equally happy to bet the recession will end before we record a government surplus (i.e. when the debts start to be repaid).
21/27 Also ignores the possibility of a second double dip recession, once the monetary and fiscal brakes are applied to the economy to kill inflation when the velocity of money begins to increase. This recession could be over by the end of the year (just about) but a second, debt/inflation caused recession remains likely.
Why have they done this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5725635/EU-puts-disability-scooters-in-same-tax-bracket-as-F1-cars.html
24. Wouldn’t surprise me if Brown uses it to call a state of emergency and postpone the election.
28. No Mark we are in for the long haul here. The FTSE is too reliant on the US stock markets, only its mining and fuel shares are truly independent.
If infections hit 100000 a day at their peak, and the peak lasts at least 7 days (the incubation period) a back of the envelope calculation suggests that you would expect at least 6 or 7 MPs to get swine flu.
34. So name a date that will be announced by the World Bank or other august body that the recession has ended in Britain.
Would you say June 2010 early enough, or perhaps May 2011? Name a date with 10 days +- each side.
does make you wonder why NOW they suddenly ramp the story up.
Nothing else works… .so…..
39. I’m willing to have a separate bet on the end of the recession if I feel the terms are favourable, but I’d like to clear the first one up on how the end of recession relates to debt being repaid.
Not to mention, MPs, by the nature of their job, are in contact with far more people, far more often, than almost anyone else. Only GPs and hospital workers beat them for susceptibility to infection, probably.
The infection rate for MPs could be higher than for the population more widely.
I bet MPs will somehow make sure they and their families are allowed access to T@miflu before the rest of the population - after all, the work they do is absolutely essential (or so most of them seem to believe).
Sorry Morus, but there is no comparison between swine flu and F&M.
My farming neighbours were devastated by it, sheep/lambs starving in knee-deep mud because DEFRA wouldn’t allow them to be moved 10ft to a field across a lane and no food available to feed them.
It was heart-breaking.
That’s classic idiocy. What sort of idiots vote for a measure like that? There is no tangible benefit, there’s no way that it won’t bring the EU into disrepute when Lisbon is still in the balance, and there’s no way not to interpret it as an attack on the least vulnerable in society - the elderly and infirm.
Brussels Delenda Est.
(only kidding in the last sentence - but it surprised me that I don’t think anyone has used that as a Blog name yet, and I wanted to claim it first!)
I’m currently off with ’swine flu’. (Back on Monday). At least I was told that’s what it (probably) was when I got a call back from phoning for an appointment. It’s nothing compared to the hellish flu bout I got after Christmas.
On Thread: So far this Swine Flu has turned out to be mild. The only deaths, 3 I believe were caused by underlying other deseases.
The government has washed it’s hands of trying to prevent infections from spreading, ( a battle they would lose anyway), so they have plucked a figure (100,000 per diem) out of the air and if it’s less than this, thay can claim some success.
Pure bullshit if you ask me.
42. Doubt MPs meet that many. I’d put bus drivers, anybody in a school, check-out staff in supermarkets and anyone who travels by tube in the rush-hour at higher risk. Health staff highest, of course, but that’s because they deal with infected cases.
42 - MP’s, are in contact with far more people, far more often, than almost anyone else.
Except for the 3+ million that travel by tube daily, most till operators at large retail outlets, etc etc, cut to the chase…. Don’t talk rot.
Hi! I’m Godfrey!
43 You are kidding surely?
An MP meets more people than a check-out person in Tesco’s, a hotel receptionist, bus driver, shop assistant, police officer, me, teacher, florist, optician, chemist, nurse and on and on…?
47/48 b./SimonStClare
Sorry, you are both absolutely right. I was getting carried away with slightly shameful thoughts of troughers getting their comeuppance…
41. I didn’t say the debt would be fully repaid to end the recession.
I said that the recession wouldn’t end untill debt STARTED to be repaid. Which is totally different
I think Morus is right and it’ll dominate for a while once it really spreads. There’s a bit of unease in my patch because we’re an official hotspot, which means that the advice to schools etc. is not to shut when there’s a case but to shrug and carry on since one can’t really avoid contact anyway. Some parents aren’t too happy with that and I know of at least one case where they’re keeping their child at home rather than let them attend a school where there’s been a case. I’m not sure peoplr are very good at the British stiff upper lip when they’re worried about their kids - hence the potency of the MMR scare.
46. I agree it is a strange announcement to say the least.
Do you think it could be an attempt to justify ordering 90 million doses of the vaccine (saving Johnson’s [he ordered it] bacon so to speak)?
After all GPs are likely to diagnose it for anything that looks anything like it. Likely they won’t test for it in the labs anymore but just prescribe the cure.
53. NPMP, Your so in the thick of things Nick. Think you’ll get it?
The SF I mean.
38. They’ll make sure they are first in line for the immunisation when one comes out.
51 – Wibbler, wishful thinking, I can appreciate that.
52. Yes, I misread it the first time, but I’m willing to bet on that too. I bet the recession will end before the first quarter decline in UK or US government debt, whether measured in nominal or real terms. Fair?
53 Nick you mentioned yesterday?/ you had been in favour of delaying ID cards for at least a year. That doesn’t chime with what I posted about your strong support for them. You don’t want the delay because the issue is so toxic with the nation at large by any chance, and because its a vote loser?
If it remains at its current level of potency then it will have a negligble effect. If it gets worse, but the NHS get the vaccine out and stop an increase in the number of deaths, then there will be a bounce. If the NHS collapses under the strain, then the government will get hit very hard. To be fair, what I hear, is that they believe that they are very well prepared.
I wonder if the cuts narrative is going to loose its effect naturally anyway. I suspect taxes will be the next battleground.
The swine flu epidemic presents two threats: first, the danger that the virus will mutate into a deadlier variant. It hasn’t thus far. That doesn’t mean it won’t but it’s not happened yet and, given what’s happened in Mexico, it may never happen. Second, the danger that the media will encourage the ridiculous levels of public panic that we saw during the chicken flu scare and the MMR vaccine scare. It needs to be said - often - that, compared with other flu viruses constantly circulating among the population, swine flu thus far has produced a very low death rate indeed and the victims have all been people whose health, for whatever reason, was already compromised.
A third danger - which in my mind is currently the most worrying - is that the government will also encourage high levels of public panic simply so as to present a reprise performance by St. Gordon, Saviour of the Nation in Walking on the Water while Turning it into Wine mode. Since there appears to be absolutely nothing that this government won’t use to partisan advantage, I think we can expect grave bulletins at regular intervals. I’m of an age to be at some risk, supposing I catch swine flu, but Gordon attempting to use the issue for re-launch No. 93, 507 is the graver threat to my well-being, on account of what it would undoubtedly do to my blood pressure.
53 - Unfortunately there is a generation of parents whose assessment of risk and selfish reliance on others to provide herd immunity for them became distorted and once distorted ignored or pandered to.
Compulsory vaccinations before school and nursery introduce a “we’re in it together” mentality, a social stigma towards selfishness and wrecklessness.
We should follow other countries who have tackled this head on.
Quick question for everyone.
Has Peter Hitchens ever smiled in his whole life?
53. Seems to me that we worry a lot more about illnesses than we did when there was much less prevention. Mumps, measles, rubella used to be ordinary childhood illnesses, no big deal, sure there were complications sometimes but people didn’t seem to worry about the illnesses themselves much. Now we can vaccinate against them, they’re a source of worry - and so is the vaccine itself.
Life is very odd.
62 - He just smiled just then
61. A “we’re in it together” mentality through compulsion - I’d never have guessed you were a socialist!
54 - Surely once infected then Tamiflu would be prescribed, the vaccine would be to protect from infection. I have already had a course of Tamiflu, given a week after I had a flu like illness. I alos normally get called for the annual flu jab as I have asthma.
My son is currently undergoing agressive chemotherapy and as a result is kept in a Lamina flow ( clean ) environment - isolation. The staff on that ward would be at the front of the queue as they deal daily with patients that have absolutely no resistance to fight infection. There have been one or too lock downs already and they have a heightened awareness, understandably so as the lady who died first presented at the Southern general before being transferred to Paisley.
90 million seems an awful lot of doses.. they are needed yes .. but so many ?
Off topic our Harriet is on QT .. first question is GB telling porkies ? LOL
55: I’m sure you hope so, weathercock - nice juicy by-election if it’s serious, eh?
Speaking of death, are we being co-funded by the tobacco industry here? I see the advert links to a campaign by Greg Knight MP a number of organisations, including Forest, about whom see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FOREST . What’s entertaining about the campaign is that it’s so in-your-face illogical - they say “we are NOT campaigning to end the ban” on all smoking in public places but, er, only campaigning to stop it being a ban on all smoking in public places.
62 - I can’t believe it!
I’ve never felt so humiliated! I hope he can live with himself!
67 - Your next question should be has “Peter Hitchens ever punched Harriet Harman?”
Harriet lying about the PMQ jeering that stopped Gordon from saying 0.7%.
Just STOP LYING!
65 - “Passengers fasten your seatbelts” isn’t Marx or Hayek.
I’m enjoying the surreal sight of Jarvis Cocker sitting next to IDS.
58. Any time. but only a declared date will do.
69. It’s a bizarre argument. The word “percent” comes after the words “point seven” in that number, yet he managed to say the percent first… due to jeering?
It’s just such a blatant, obvious lie. I don’t know how they can actually say it without going bright red with embarassment.
It might be the champagne talking, but is David Laws, quite hot?
62. Not a happy man.
74. He looks like Bobby Kennedy.
74 - No. Jeremy Browne is a fine example of Lib Dem hawtness though, and we could do with seeing more of him!
HAHAHAHA - Harriet’s copy of Red Book has a page marker!
Well done Dimbleby!
74 - David Laws thinks thinks he is.
Cocker not bringing much to the party.
Why do they persist on having people like poor old Jarvis on the show?
It’s not particularly comfortable to watch.
There are two ways to resist Swine Flu: (a) get the jab or (b) get the flu.
Avoiding it is not an option.
Jarvis, Jarvis, Jarvis…..shaping up to be another reason NEVER to have popstars on QT.
77- Godfrey of B, whilst you are on board, why is a Caledonian clarion such as yourself, named after a 930 year old dead Frenchman that neither knew of, nor set foot in, Scotland? ….why not Haggis McBurns or something equally twee.
72. I would like to bet that the end of the recession comes before the beginning of debt being pay back, which is the opposite of what you said would happen. Whether it will happen before a particular date is a separate argument. If you don’t want to bet on your first statement, fair enough, but at least admit to it.
Anyway, I’m getting an early night. I’ll check after work tomorrow to see if you were willing to bet on the debt being repaid part. Night all.
Very good article Morus,and leaving aside the human tragedy of swine flu,the deaths,the economy will suffer a huge financial loss and this dent any chance of recovery for a while
66. I certainly dont want any deaths, let alone yours Nick.
No what we all need, and you know it, is a nice quiet GENERAL ELECTION.
68
Well he might have, they were very, very good friends at York Uni.
84 - It’s, presumably, something to do with some sort of Da Vinci code style conspiracy, probably involving Templars or, maybe, a Confederation of International Jiving Enthusiasts.
So, yeah, I don’t know, is the answer.
ps - you can call me GoB!
88. Two of my university’s more embarrassing alumni.
88 - was he a trot then?
87 - I believe you, weathercock, just joking.
91
Yep!
Another one in the sin bin!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5726585/Scotland-Yard-quiz-peer-over-expenses-claim.html
Cocker is embarressing, who books these people?
94 - By somebody who doesn’t know their arse from their elbow
Jeremy Browne is indeed hot..
94. Not as embarrassing as Hitchens.
‘Hanged by the neck until dead’
97. At least Hitchins is coherent even if he’s a bit mad.
98 - I suspect saying that gives him a 662.
Bring back David Starkey!
Mexico isn’t a good comparison for future course of the illness becuase they basically shut down the country for a couple of weeks to starve it off.
Harman does meander doesn’t she?
I like the photo illustrating this article.
Minister in Tory homophobia claim
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8131792.stm
Smear?
What is Harman wibbling about?
If only Christopher Hitchens was on the panel!
I’m sorry, what?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/manutd/5725623/Michael-Owen-joins-Manchester-United.html
105 - Oracle, the next smear will be on racist Tories.
Just released six comments, so expect numbering to be askew
Some scientists say that there might be a genetic component to extremist views.
In the interests of research, I say both Hitchins brothers should donate themselves to medical science!
Is it just me or does Jarvis Cocker look like a geography teacher?
113 - Well bugger me with a fishfork.
105 - It’s a smear, Bradshaw is attempting to sour the news of the ‘Pink News’ poll in the Tories favour….someone from lasts nights thread must have blabbed?
118 - just a bit. I can actually see why Ferguson has done it. He doesn’t have a third striker anymore, and Owen comes for free since his contract is up. It just seemed like an odd move…
“Captain Brown has a shipmate on board the SS Excess Baggage”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2517904.0.Captain_Brown_has_a_shipmate_on_board_the_SS_Excess_Baggage.php
Oops, 105 = 110.
113 - Given the fact that he can’t be arsed flying to Newcastle, and has taken them for a Fred Goodwin style ride, driving down the road from his horses and Chester racecourse will make some sense.
Jackson question soon for Cocker surely:)!
I want questions about Mollie Sugden.
Are the Guardian short of copy?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/02/conservativehome-survey-tories-isolationist-eurosceptic
Wasn’t this survey done weeks ago?
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Friday-July-3-2009/Media-Gallery/200907115328359?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15328359_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Friday_July_3%2C_2009
Even though she’s part of a terrible government and a member of a horrible party, I can’t quite dislike Harriet Harman.
Why!?
HH for PM. She’s all over the shop!
NPMP - details please for me settling our bet and paying 10 quid to your cats people?
128 GoB “Even though she’s part of a terrible government and a member of a horrible party, I can’t quite dislike Harriet Harman.”
You’re weird! Go and take your mind of it with a cold shower - or go back to trying to rule Jerusalem, or something.
This is the worst guest I’ve ever seen on QT
HH isn’t that bad…
128 - GoB, It’s called the “Game keeper syndrome” that states every niece of a Countess should be shown how to pluck a pheasant.
131 - Who?
130 - I do feel like a wee crusade at some point…probably to York rather than Jerusalem though!
134. Jarvis Cocker, inane.
136 - Ohhhhhh, not watching, he is really worse than oh I don’t know, Will Young? Fern Britain? Alex James?
“Norwich’s disillusion with Labour boosts Tory ‘no-hoper’”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6627039.ece
While we all have fun taking the Michael out of the people who are allegedly running the country it is worth remembering that they are responsible for real decisions that affect real peoples lives.
http://shock.military.com/Shock/videos.do?displayContent=192865&page=6
Note although the word shock appears in the url, there is nothing overly shocking apart from the fact that we forget these people are out there on our behalf.
On one level, Harriet Harman is a game duck for being prepared to actually appear in front of the public.
But she is woeful. Poor, poor, poor…
137. Yes, far worse.
Yawn. It’s just ‘flu. No big deal.
141 - Really, that bad! Glad I missed it!
I think we should be fair to the Toryboys who want to see a catastrophic depression before the election so that people would rush to the ballot box to throw out Brown.
When I was a lot younger I prayed for our economy to tank so that Thatcher would be thrown under the proverbial political bus.
I guess that Toryboys will be Toryboys.
Now that I’m an old man I realise the folly of my youth; its never a good thing to want one’s fellow humans to suffer for mean political advantage. However as the age of Toryboy posters appears to be about 13 and a half I guess we can expect more schadenfreude from now until May.
141. I think Sun columnist Emma Jones still has the prize for the worst Question Time guest ever. I still remember her going on about the CBI’s [sic] evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Based on the progress to date in the USA 100,000 cases per day could mean as many as 200 hospitalisations and 10 deaths [per day].
Median age of hospitalisations will be around 19, and the median age of those who die will be around 37.
Availability of paediatric vents may become an issue.
http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090626.htm
Hers a good example of how the internet is affecting the print media.
Heres tonights conspiratorial diary in the Telegraph.
Mystery of private Tory’s five star supper
When David Cameron and George Osborne were pictured leaving the Dorchester this week all anyone seemed interested in was that both gentlemen were tieless. Mandrake is far more intrigued by whom it was that the leader of the Opposition and the shadow chancellor had been dining with at the hotel. “It was a private dinner,” says a Conservative Party spokesman. “I can’t tell you any more than that, I’m afraid.”
Sir Philip Green uses the hotel a great deal, but he tells me that he didn’t attend a dinner with either of them. So why the great mystery? Surely it wasn’t Osborne’s old chum Oleg Deripaska?
And heres Nadine Dorries on her blog.
Posted Thursday, 2 July 2009 at 12:35
My spare thoughts each day are for my blog. Today they are totally devoted to what I am going to wear for the Spectator Summer Party tonight.
I will confess, this is the second event this week. The other was on a rooftop in Mayfair at a cosy climate change fundraiser. George (Osborne) spoke in front of a Brazilian band and I tasted a sea breeze for the first time.
The very small rooftop was full of Nancy Dell’ Olio, Tamara Beckwith and the Ground Force team.
I found it quite surreal. I imagine tonight’s party will be even more so.
So depending on who you believe Osborne and Cameron were schmoozing with oligarchs, or staying so far away from yachts that they were dining with the Ground Force team.
138. hahaha
‘According to one Labour source, the Labour Party’s only hope is to campaign on its record of local investment… and appeal to Gordon Brown to stay away from the constituency. ‘
146 - I think we’ve found the answer to where the Government plucked the figure of 100,000 infections per diem….
It started in America…
Tim is greater than or equal to LOL
If the Government won’t learn, nor will children
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/camilla_cavendish/article6626295.ece
“Steve Richards: You can tell a lot about a Prime Minister from his U-turns”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-you-can-tell-a-lot-about-a-prime-minister-from-his-uturns-1729428.html
Looks like a big win for the Lib Dems in tonight’s by-election in ultra marginal Sutton and Cheam. Former stomping ground of pb.c’s favourite white supremacist Richard Willis.
The dark lords evil spin machine has clearly been up and running this week
Clearly the Brown’s a liar message is getting through and even Deb Mattinson’s “focus” groups are picking it up.
So we get:
dark lord himself having a go at Gideon as Gideon had nailed Brown on the none sharing of data
Then a double tap move on Gideon today with the complaint. How very Peter…
Now we have we have nu labs leading gay men attacking tories gays for being not gay enough (note dark lord stays out of this one directly)
Isn’t it about time the newspapers reveal all the dirt they have on the dark lord so the rest of us can get on with an election
154 - “Isn’t it about time the newspapers reveal all the dirt they have on the dark lord so the rest of us can get on with an election”
I think it may be the other way around, what dirt the Dark Lord has on the journos, and I would guess, a lot.
152-A really great article by Richards:
(…)Brown did not even win over his closest ministerial allies. One cabinet minister refused to appear on any programme while the proposal was running as a big story because he could not defend it. The policy was dropped last autumn at the height of the financial crisis.
(…)Reflecting on these U-turns, I am reminded of a conversation with one of Brown’s allies who told me in relation to the fatal non-election sequence in 2007: “Gordon couldn’t decide whether to break with Blairism. He could have only justified calling an early election by making a break and offering a distinctive pitch. He was worried that a break would split the cabinet and lose support in the media. Perhaps he did not want to make the break anyway”.
The U-turns show that Brown has never acquired a clear voice of his own as Prime Minister and has failed to break away from his complicated past. Perhaps an early election would have liberated him from the manacles. Instead, we are left with a trail of major reversals that convey the insecure mindset of a Prime Minister trying too hard to win a big tent of support when virtually the entire campsite has moved on.”
First interview for a long long time:
“Alistair Darling: ‘I always thought I’d be here’
In a passionate interview, the Chancellor talks to Andrew Grice about cuts, clashes and the reshuffle”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/alistair-darling-i-always-thought-id-be-here-1729616.html
153. Richard Willis has nothing to do with Sutton now. Leave him where he is and don’t indulge in personal vendettas.
157 – What a sad little article, every sentence was ‘how we will thwart the Tories’ and never a mention of what needs to be done or putting the Country first.
Labour are in opposition mode, 10 months of paralysis until the inevitable.
This argument about all this extra money available to spend, that seems to be being found down the back of the sofa, due to “underspend” doesn’t stack up either.
Services are being cut already due to lack of funds, and the government are having to borrow more and more money every month than even they forecast just to keep the ship above water.
Now unspent magic money is appearing.
Thx, scrapheap, you’re an honest man and I’d forgotten. Pussies are Cats Protection Nottingham, The Gate House, New Farm Lane (off Watnall Road), Nuthall, Nottingham NG16 1DY.
Inside the Cameron vote machine
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/inside-the-cameron-vote-machine-1729624.html
161 - I particular like this line,
“But Mr Pickles, the ample figure with the undying love of the party’s grassroots, has cemented his influence.”
161 - Who is this reporter Michael Savage?
He’s lifted Tim Montgomerie’s informative thread, posted on ConHome about GO setting up HQ in No10 and re-written it in the style of Steven King meets Kafka…..
Money for old rope is this reporting malarkey.
163 - Well the Guardian have done the same with that Conservative Home Poll of PPC attitudes that was released weeks ago.
164 (cont) Another Tim Montgomerie effort if I remember correctly.
53.”I’m not sure peoplr are very good at the British stiff upper lip when they’re worried about their kids - hence the potency of the MMR scare.”
NickP, Why the hell should parents have a stiff upper lip when their children’s health is concerned??!! Common sense, yes. But when it comes to dealing with a pandemic, and the unpredictable UK media, I think that you are expecting far too much. It doesn’t help to see mixed messages being sent out either, they were closing whole schools a few weeks back if one case was diagnosed. Remember some parents heard about one particular closure from the government via the media instead of the school.
And now you are saying that because your area is a hot spot, that won’t be happening because its not practical. This will not sit easy with parents that would have read media reports that warned against swine flu style parties, just like the ones of old. Isn’t it great with the benefit of hindsight to dismiss the concerns of ordinary parents at the time of the MMR scare, your government has some responsibility there among others.
My views on MMR were well informed because of my nursing background thank god. And I say that as someone whose own child was diagnosed with a form of Autism during that period after they had received the jab. If anything, the real scandal was the way that the funding to carry on other research into the causes dried up. I think that the government are partly to blame for that too, and its been made worse by the way they were pushing many of these children into mainstream schooling, and without adequate extra funding to follow them there, an appalling decision if you knew the first thing about Autism.
160 - Govt is bringing forward expenditure from the next few years. In other words spending money the Tories will have to raise as taxes.
Its a disaster area.
PB.com very quiet tonight. Throw out an O/T.
After previous evening discussions regarding if Murray wins Wimbledon many have said he nailed on to claim the SPOTY, and given he has his big semi-final tomorrow. At the time I forgot to run the following scenario.
Murray gets to the final, but loses to Federer. Does Murray win SPOTY if Button wins F1? Or does Murray have to win Wimbledon? What about if the final is yet another classic (doubt it could top Nadal vs Federer), but a really really great match none the less? Or if he gets beaten in 3 sets?
168 - That is how I understood it, but in the Indy article that was linked above the following,
“The Chancellor has a new tool as he tries to do more with less money: switching resources between departments. Several ministers chipped in unspent funds from their own budgets”
170 - Just noticed when I posted, is the “more with less” statement by Darling. Isn’t that Call Me Dave’s “catchphrase” when he comes to talking about the future of public spending?
169-Pb is very quiet! So boring…
172 - None of the fun and games of last night I’m afraid.
I say if Murray makes the Final that will be good enough to win SPOTY.
169 Oracle
Betfair have a market on ‘will x be in the top 3 in SPOTY’.
I think betting on either Murray or Button is basically free money.
Some more BBC Labour bias? Or maybe not:
“BBC News has created the new post of deputy political editor, with James Landale promoted to the number two role behind Nick Robinson.”
“Landale, who studied politics at the University of Bristol, was a contemporary at Eton of both the Conservative leader, David Cameron, and the London mayor, Boris Johnson.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jul/01/james-landale-bbc-deputy-political-editor
174 - Even if Federer schools him in the final?
Should note, not hoping that is the case, just throwing out thoughts with regards future betting opportunities.
Andrew de Moray will NOT let Scotland down!
To victory! To glory!
FOR SCOTIA!!!
173-No good articles, no one is here. Fun and games would be good!
178-Are you new here? If so, welcome.
174.Mike, I agree, and if its an exciting final where Murray plays well, that will be enough, even if he doesn’t win it. The excitement and build up would be amazing, and the Beeb will be happy with the viewing figures what ever the outcome.
175. If Murray loses to Roddick I’d say he could fail to make Top 3 of SPOTY.
But he’s much longer odds (1.55) for SPOTY Top 3 than he is to beat Roddick (1.34).
So if you think he’ll beat Roddick then back him for SPOTY Top 3. I think he’d be 100% certain of SPOTY Top 3 if he beats Roddick.
On topic
One thing which I think swine flu could genuinely affect is the timing of the next election.
Several posters here, most prominently Peter from Putney, have been laying out the case that the clearing out of unpopular policies over the last few days, points to an October election.
Swine flu could definitely disrupt that.
If there is no October election, then one other possible effect the GDP figures for Q4 2009. Gordon Brown will be desperately hoping that the pending rise in VAT provides a massive kick in consumer spending in the run-up to Christmas.
The numbers for Q4 2009 conveniently pop up just before a May election. If millions of workers are off for a week because they or their kids have swine flu, it could really put a huge dent in them.
I wish Andy Murray the best of luck at Wimbledon, but in a two horse race as suggested, I see little chance of him carrying off SPOTY if Button is the F1 champion.
170 - I guess as we are only 4 months into the current financial year they are reassigning full year budgets between departments.
Its still shifting deckchairs on the Titanic as the ship is well and truly holed and sinking fast!
183 - I’m not normally one to reach for the conspiracy theories (yeah right!) but what if swine flu is going like crazy by early next year? In the same way that foot and mouth disease delayed the 2001 election, maybe the same thing will happen again?
183.”The numbers for Q4 2009 conveniently pop up just before a May election. If millions of workers are off for a week because they or their kids have swine flu, it could really put a huge dent in them.”
Wibbler, Michael Portillo made a very valid point on This Week not long ago regarding the timing of the next GE. And I had forgotten about it when PfP put forward his reasons for the possibility of it being earlier. Portillo reckoned that the government needed to go before April next year, because by then people would really start to feel the effects of the higher taxes and other costs kicking into their personal finances.
They are going to start feeling a lot worse off what ever the condition of the economy at that point because of the huge debt burden. Its going to have an effect similar to the 10p tax con, only on a much grander scale because it will effect many more people. And I think that Mandelson in particular is aware of this.
I see that Osborne got some praise from Will Hutton and Diane Abbot on tonight’s pro gramme. We live in interesting times.
Guido on “the case against Osborne”
“There is something fishy about this” he says, but fails to identify what exactly. Must admit it’s hard to know what’s what until there is more meat on the bones regarding this story. Any thoughts..
http://order-order.com/2009/07/02/the-cased-against-osborne/
Button, SPOTY? F1 has been rumbled. It’s the car that’s the star.
188.Simon, there was a couple of v good posts on the previous thread which addressed this.
158 - so just because ‘Wing Commander’ Willis is not involved in Sutton politics - his support for white supremacists like Ian Smith should be forgotten?
I think not. He is of course - to David Cameron’s shame - still a leading light in Conservative circles (and elected councillor) in Reading and unrepentant in his pro-apartheid views.
Of course if the Tories had won in Nonsuch I’m sure he would have been one of the first to post here. If not under his real name but under one of his pseudonyms like runnymede or similar…
Thanks Chrisd, I was out all afternoon so missed it, will take a gander now.
144. Malcolm: I think we should be fair to the Toryboys who want to see a catastrophic depression before the election so that people would rush to the ballot box to throw out Brown.
I know you’re a total idiot, Malcolm, but this line exceeds even your own standards, considering that the thread is about Labour benefiting from a national disaster.
Labour surges…in Australia:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/33698/turnbulls_popularity_collapses_in_australia
It does help if your opponents use forgeries!
http://www.sutton.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=5911
88 votes for Labour! That’s about 2% (down from 7%). Good win for the LibDems.
191.Dan, considering today’s news, very bad taste.
Oh Malcolm!
We love you Malcolm!
You’re so great!
We love you so!
Oh Malcolm! Why did you have to go?!
OT, flu doesn’t have to kill many to cause chaos. If it’s infectious but ‘mild’ (a description some disagree with) it could still put enough people off work to bugger up supply chains (and election organization).
Three threads ago, someone gave this link to ICM:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/media-centre-polls.php
Which includes a link to the results of a voting intention poll with fieldwork dates of 12th-14th June. But I was ICMed on 10th June. Where are the results of the poll with me in? And where are the results of the questions about civil partnerships etc.? Might there be a reason for it not to be on the ICM website?
Yesterday I went to a meeting in London, which involved two tube journeys. I was expecting it to be horribly sweaty and sultry and uncomfortable and humid and boiling, but actually it was reasonably OK. Has the underground system been installed with a super-efficient air-conditioning system all of a sudden, without telling me?
200. JohnLoony: Has the underground system been installed with a super-efficient air-conditioning system all of a sudden, without telling me?
It takes some period of hot weather for the Tube to become truly hot. It’s already noticeably hotter than it was a few days ago. Two or three more days of hot weather, I would estimate, and then it’ll be dreadful.
I think the soil/buildings/whatever between the surface and the tunnels act as an insulator. This, of course, means that when the weather cools down, it takes some time for the Tube to cool.
On topic - It is now quite clear thaqt swine flu / H1N1 is fairly communicable but is not dangerous. The fatality rate is close to zero. I fear we cry wolf too often over oubreaks that don’t do any significant damage (SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, MMR jabs, etc). One day something genuinely dangerous will come along and we’ll just say ‘yeah - whatever’.
Wow… Silvio Berlusconi really has the biggest brass neck of any politician alive
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/5720385/Silvio-Berlusconi-dines-with-judge-who-is-to-rule-on-immunity-law.html
201. Then why didn’t they just build the underground railway overground to avoid the problem? Or they could declare the tube system to be a different time zone, and call it “February”. Or they could develop a fuel system based on snow instead of electricity?
Croatia’s PM has suddenly resigned
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-07-02-voa33.cfm
Dan Falchikov - you do yourself and the Lib Dems no favours at all with your smears and personal attacks, especially when they are so inaccurate.
1. I am not a Wing Commander.
2. I have never posted as “runneymede” or similar
3. I am not and never have been “pro-apartheid”
4. I am not a “white supremacist”
You continue to peddle these lies here and elsewhere but in so doing you merely succeed in showing the nasty face of your party.
I am proud that in Reading East we have more ethnic minority Councillors than the other parties put together and that is in some measure down to my own efforts over the years. What seems to grate with you is that in several cases they have replaced Lib Dem Cllrs.
WRT Nonsuch ward, it was always going to be hard to hold a seat won in all-out elections in 2006, especially when the other two in the ward were Lib Dem Cllrs. Sadly Chris Dunlop’s untimely death precipitated the by-election and the people of Nonsuch can have reason to be glad that they had such a decent public servant as their representative for that period of time. The new Lib Dem Cllr has a lot to live up to!
So please, stop peddling lies and personal attacks and try to focus on the policies in question!
Off topic, I was up at my local hospital this morning and heard that the local health trust has been told to make savings in expenditure of £75M over the next five years ‘because of the recession’. They estimate that it will mean losing, or not replacing, up to 600 staff a year for five years. That information has now been confirmed by a piece on the BBC website. One of the people who may not be replaced when he retires later this year is the consultant who, bless his cotton socks, has done his best to keep me alive for the last ten years.
Now, I don’t know what you think, but the compulsory saving of £75M sounds like a cut to me. You know, one of those nasty things that the evil, baby-eating, Eton-attending Tories will introduce if elected, unlike the present Government who, out of the goodness of its heart, will carry on investing in the NHS for ever and ever.
Who thinks that Gordon & Peter are hoping that Swine Flu becomes a serious enough problem for the general election to be postponed and the CCA brought in to enable this vile government to continue in office unchallenged. “It’s for the good of the Country…”
Currently abroad and finding coverage of swine flu more honest. It is proving to be spreading despite the warmer weather, two thirds of fatalities are amongst healthy people and probing of the phrase “underlying health problems” reveals a list of conditions that most of the population have. Should a spike of infections occur in the autumn/winter and the virus become more aggressive, then it will be a massive story with widespread implications for politics. So far I think there has been far too much complacency.