Guest Article from tim
July 3rd, 2009
Has Cameron gambled on the expenses issue going away?
Yesterday’s news that George Osborne is to be investigated over his expense claims puts the issue back into the news. I suspect that in the public’s mind it never really went away.
Largely ignored last week, in the news maelstrom surrounding Michael Jackson’s death, was an announcement that the Conservative Scrutiny Panel had finished its work. Reportedly no MPs were to be disciplined, and it looks like no Shadow Cabinet Ministers will lose their jobs. Some money would be paid back, though full details have yet to be released.
David Cameron seems to have gambled that expenses will not resonate with voters at the General Election. He is betting that either Labour will take most of the blame, or that the public will take a “they are all the same” position, only damaging in as far as it boosts minor parties with no chance of upsetting the Conservative bandwagon.
Although I’m sure some Conservative supporters will be disappointed with Cameron’s position, particularly as he was earlier portrayed in the press as being ahead of the game, I’m sure they can understand the reasons why. Where would Cameron stop if he began a clear out of those in his Shadow Cabinet who abused the system? The allegations include some of his closest and most senior colleagues and aware of how inexperienced a victorious Conservative Parliamentary Party will likely be, Cameron chose not to open the can of worms.
Has he made the correct call?
I would argue that with Brown in charge of the Labour Party, and the Cabinet as currently constituted, he probably has.
If however there is a change of leadership within the Labour Party and Alan Johnson were to become Leader I think there is a chance that Cameron has made a serious miscalculation.
Were Johnson, a “clean skin” in the whole saga, to clear out his cabinet of those tainted by expenses, then a stark dividing line with Cameron’s team would be facing the voters.
The Conservative top team would be extremely vulnerable to the charge that, while campaigning on a change theme, a Conservative cabinet would contain many of those, who, in the old Parliament, brought it into disrepute.
tim
Note from Morus: The author is a sometimes controversial commenter on PB.com, and this article arose out of a challenge by some of his detractors. The article has been cleared for publication by OGH, and it should be noted that whilst PB.com usually leads with non-partisan articles, this is sometimes relaxed for Guest Articles - as here.
With Phillip Hammond now 11/10 favourite to be the Next Chancellor with William Hills, ahead of Osborne at 5/4, there is a serious question as to how Cameron handles the enquiry into the Shadow Chancellor. Must he give the benefit of the doubt to a top performer (as he did to Gove), or will expenses not be the danger at the GE that it has been recently? I think tim’s piece does make the case that Cameron must gamble on how much the public will care about expenses by the General Election, and I think he is right that as long as Brown, Darling, Straw and others are in post, Cameron can afford to be lenient with his Shadow Cabinet - especially as so many of his MPs in government might be first-time MPs. The experience of people like Gove and Osborne might be too important for him to lose them over perception of profiteering from expenses.
I know PoliticalBetting.com posters will want to challenge this argument rather than the author personally, and for avoiding ad hominum hominem criticism, I thank you all in advance. - Morus
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Behave.
second?
Perfectly reasonable and thought provoking piece..a bit short..
1 Priceless
What…no Eton mention?? I’m dissapointed.
Actually Tim, not too bad. You’re right in that Cameron has seemingly backed down a bit, but then that is the case for all party members. No-one is without dirt in this sorry escapade.
However there is two different levels of sleaze here. First being the clear fraud, and the second being the ‘using the rules to benefit’. Whilst some consveratives which are in their position still are guilty most likely of the second, the same is true for many cabinet members.
And I think its something all leaders whould like to sweep under the carpet.
Disappointingly unlibellous.
Elephant in the expenses room is this massive “if”:
“Were Johnson, a “clean skin” in the whole saga, to clear out his cabinet of those tainted by expenses”
If Johnson were to do that, the Cabinet he’d end up with would be about three strong. And to replace the fallen, there aren’t any talented Labour MPs pushing for ministerial roles either.
Decent article, pity the authors regular offerings aren’t quite at the same level..
It’s a nice article.
Hmm as Johnson would need most of the cabinet to push out Brown is it not inconceivable that he would then stab them in the back over expenses ?
Sure Mike didn’t write this?
I thought I’d heard that a number of the bad cases (McKay etc) hadn’t been dealt with by the Scrutiny Committe as referred to Standards body. But of course none of those was front bench.
In response to Plato FPT
Those critters with their ice lollies may be moderately cute, but they ain’t got nothing on this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1092429/I-wanna-like-A-Junglebook-jolly-toddler-Emily-baby-orangutan-Rishi-monkey-together.html
On the second half of the article though sums up Labours problem.
‘If Johnson came in’
‘If he cleared out the cabinet’
Two big if’s, and if he did the second, which ’squeaky cleans’ would replace them??
Not too many of them around….even less with any talent.
12 The push-chair shot is wonderful!
“Were Johnson, a “clean skin” in the whole saga, to clear out his cabinet of those tainted by expenses, then a stark dividing line with Cameron’s team would be facing the voters”
Well, a lot of if’s there. IMO even if Johnson to take over there is nothing to say he will clear out the lot of them. Where would he look for replacement talent? The HoL seems to be the current recruiting ground.
Otherwise, yes it is a gamble but I fully expect Osborne will be cleared.
It’s Hominem, Morus. Thought with your moniker you’d know the accusative form of a third declension noun.
On topic, I don’t think there are enough senior ‘clean skins’ in Labour to form a Cabinet completely free from expenses scandals.
The same is true for the Conservatives.
There is just no way a Johnson cabinet wouldn’t have people like Darling in it.
Well done on your first effort young Tim, a little short perhaps and ironically less critical of the Tories per se, than I would have been.
Stick around for the post mortem, should be fun.
he may have got it right, but its high risk. Basically Cameron made a lot of high profile statements about the rules not being good enough in a successful attempt to outflank Brown. Now he is left with various members of the Shadow Cabinet left in place hiding behind a defence that its within the rules.
Having read what is in the press about Osborne I can’t see what other defence he has apart from “its in the rules”. Will Cameron defend him and thus be a hypocrite? Will he not defend him and leave Gideon exposed to the media?
The risk here is that by talking tough then failing to take action, Cameron comes across either as spineless or a hypocrite. The majority of Cabinet offenders on expenses have left the government - the majority of Shadow Cabinet offenders are still in situ. Expenses can only now damage the Tories - you have to ask why Cameron is leaving himself open to that prospect?
Perfectly decent piece of wordsmithery, if somewhat delusional toward the end - the scenario of Johnson taking over and removing all traces of corruption simply doesn’t stack up.
…once he’s sacked almost the entire cabinet and forced most of the rest of the PLP to stand down, avoiding being necklaced himself in the process…and magically expunging from the public’s mind all memory of smeargate and other scandals and…
…it’s just rubbish isn’t it?
PS Morus check your Latin.
OT Wonder who is behind this one to oust Trevor Phillips?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197293/Deal-force-Trevor-Phillips-head-equality-watchdog.html?ITO=1490
Bit harsh of Morus to put you up against the Murray semi - lol.
Well done Tim.
More of these sort of posts - and the answer is yes.
Honesty and who you trust to lead the nation through the next parliament’s tough economic decisions is now the broader issue and is at a higher level than expense fiddling by all and sundry.
The very best of luck to Andy Murray.
I enjoyed it. Not bad at all.
My thinking, however, is that the whole Expenses issue is a significant weapon in Cameron’s armoury, which he can use for his own benefit whenever he wants. His power over Conservative Party in Parliament seems to be considerable – he displays much more authoritarianism over his Party then Brown does over Labour. If anyone ever crosses Cameron, the full might of the Expenses Blunderbuss will be unleashed on them. He doesn’t have to do it today: he can use it anytime between now and the next General Election. It’s not an anti-Labour weapon – it’s a pro-Cameron one.
Interesting article.
What should save Cameron here is that the media seems to have mostly got bored with the expenses story. That means that the vast majority of the electorate may never know that Cameron has let everybody off, dedicated lefties posting tirelessly about it on blogs notwithstanding.
16.On topic, I don’t think there are enough senior ‘clean skins’ in Labour to form a Cabinet completely free from expenses scanda
No time for a novice would be the challenge form the Tories. And I guess if they weren’t good enough for the real front bench now why should they be in the new government.
16/20 Runnymede and Parse - thanks!
I don’t think there is another site on the whole interweb where you will get *two* comments correcting your Latin in the first 20 comments! Love you guys!
24 “If anyone ever crosses Cameron, the full might of the Expenses Blunderbuss will be unleashed on them. He doesn’t have to do it today: he can use it anytime between now and the next General Election. It’s not an anti-Labour weapon – it’s a pro-Cameron one.”
You could be onto something there, although I think the expenses story will be background noise at the GE except in constituencies were the locals are very restive.
27 - But isn’t that the point?
A Johnson administration with only a couple of months to sit out could afford ‘clean skins’ with relatively junior MPs becoming ministers.
Cameron has to keep senior figures, even if less than pure, because he has to launch a government.
If Johnson took over, and it’s a big “if”, he could afford a cleaner Cabinet in the run up to an election, because he has nothing to lose. If they win, he has a problem, but he’s coming from so far behind, staffing the Cabinet with clean juniors could limit Cameron’s majority (by using expensesgate as a form of attack against Gove and Osborne) without actually having to run the government for long with those juniors.
I think also that the ‘initial’ public anger wave has gone. It’s now left us with a general ‘ all MP’s are at it’ mood, rather than any anger directed at individuals. Those which took the brunt of the anger at the start, the Smiths, the McKays, the Maliks et al have paid the price.
Osbourne clearly has a problem with this specific allegation and complaint, but its very much now a general mood against MPs than directed and dangerous anger from consituants.
it’s a good article. On the main points I agree that expenses has not gone away I don’t think any party thinks that way. this will hang around politics well in to the next parliament.
I think that Tim describes Labour’s nuclear option quite well. Basically “sack everyone and start again then we might have a chance.”
The problem that all parties have is that there isn’t much of a dividing line between them on expenses, everyone is tainted.The only thing that will change that is an election and letting the public have their say. The main beneficiaries from the expenses issue will be “others” and PPCs as opposed to any particular mainstream party.
we need an election.
26.
” the media seems to have mostly got bored with the expenses story.”
which presumably is why GideO is pictured above with the perfect expression to address his coming ‘probe’?
30. But the very idea that Labour could pose as a clean party after what has passed over the last few years - regardless of who is in charge - is laughable.
This whole idea is based on the idea that you can simply create these ‘dividing lines’ and then easily con the voters into swallowing them.
Perhaps you can pull that off if the public are generally well disposed to you, as was the case for much of 1997-2005, but in today’s atmosphere, it’s a fantasy.
30: Risky though. You still have to run and campaign which will be speadheaded by those people. Get the team wrong, and you could do more harm than good. Especially if you step on toes and shut people out.
Q: What do Latin cannibals say when they feast on human flesh?
A: “Ad Hominom-nom-nom”
36 Ashley Pomeroy
If you want more distinguished multilingual puns, try these
http://www.salon.com/weekly/verb960722.html
My favourite:
I think the Tories have played down the expenses issue, once they realised it would not just be a factor in those seats where they are in second place.
Excellent little article, Tim.
I think you are right, although as numerous posters point out, the ‘Johnson’ move is a big ‘if’. I doubt if they’d do it, and I doubt it would work, but what’s to lose? It would make an enthralling ‘Hail Mary’ play in the dying secnds of the last quarter and throw the betting markets into turmoil.
There is also the curious case of “The Whetstone of Witte”; a mathematical treatise by Robert Recorde in which the equals sign appears for the first time in history. The title is a clever multilingual pun
http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/Biographies/Recorde.html
Such a pity that all tim’s post aren’t as considered as the article. That said, I don’t think the argument stacks up - the expenses scandal was vastly overblown by the press, and they’ve had their fun. It’s not going to come back with anything like the vehemence that we had before. So even if Johnson were to take over and stuff the cabinet full of back-bench angels (which isn’t going to happen, not least because he won’t be able to pull of a coup d’état like that without the support of at least some of those whom he’d have to expunge) the press aren’t suddenly going to start calling for the heads of sundry shadow ministers for minor uninteresting expenses misdemeanours.
[30] - “Johnson.. could”
Perhaps, but a very large number of highly-motivated Labour politicians who are currently in government would have to let him. Why would they?
Which other highly-motivated and influential Labour politicians would support Johnson in this? Hazel Blears, perhaps? Ooops.
The article is right in so far as it sketches out the problematic position that Cameron is in, but he’s fortunate that there is no credible scenario whereby Labour cease being in a worse position [except the one that involves ~10 years of opposition].
What strikes me is that there was no mention of the Lib Dems. Surely this is their time?
Not a bad effort, tim. You could have padded it out - and pandered to OGH a bit - by bringing in Nick “I’ll come down on them like a ton of bricks” Clegg; but then the LibDems don’t really appear on your radar, do they?
Consensus breaks out on pb.com shock - and led by tim too. That’s quite an achievement!
At the risk of spoiling it, I think the press should enquire whether the *size* of second homes meets the ‘necessarily and exclusively for work’ test - what you could call the “my second home is my castle” concept. The arguments about the level of Westminster rents pale beside the question of whether one *needs* to buy a 10+room SECOND home in the constituency, and that’s something that applies right from the top of the Conservative Party.
BTW, apols to GeoffH for confusing him with TrevorsDen on the last thread.
Richard Nabavi (from previous thread but related to this one…)
Can’t be tempted by the odds offered on Osborne as next Chancellor. It’s not the ‘expenses’ thing that bothers me though; it’s Labour. Who knows what they will do next? There’s still plenty of time for Darling to be substituted, especially if Johnson takes over at any point.
The Norwich North odds were more interesting but I had to phone Hills to get on and they would only allow me £25 at 6/1 against the Greens beating Labour. The Euro results suggest Sidney has got this one wrong. Pity they wouldn’t allow a bigger bet.
the problem for the ‘clean skins’ is that Labour will have been in power for 13 years. All those who were considered competent have been pushed through the ministerial sausage machine, the ’safe pairs of hands’ have been tried in the nets - all that’s left are the dullards and the idiologically ‘iffy’.
‘Al’ Johnson is less the ‘great white hope’ and more a sort of ‘final defense of the Japanese Homeland (1945)’ sort of guy.
Surely this is their time?
Why?
The Labour party seems to lurch through what you could call Great White Hope Syndrome. First Gorgon was the GWH to replace TB. When they realised Gorgon was an electoral liability they transfered to Millipede Banana Boy as GWH. Then it became Straw as the GWH. Now it is Postman Pat as their GWH, which is really hilarious. Alan Johnson is probably a nice guy, but he will have no appeal to “Middle England”. He looks and sounds (and is!) a Union Man. the only man that would stand a chance of saving Labour from total distruction at the next GE is Tony Blair, though that would require a by election first.
45: Well Labour MPs arn’t short of a large house or two…
But though I agree with you. The rules probably need to consider the size and scope of houes and claims. However I (and probably the vast majority of MPs) would prefer to look on how we move forward from this, rather than get into ‘your house is bigger than my house’ tit for tat sniping.
The allowance was limited however to £24k or so wasn’t it. So surely that was the ‘allowable and reasonable’ level? So why wasn’t it reduced to say £12k?
Isn’t it about time that tim to$$ed one or two of his ‘Wayne’ or ‘MartinDay’ posts onto this thread to spice up the argument and make him appear more reasonable?
49 Agree; Alan Johnson is about as appealling to get us through the economic mess we face today as having Sunny Jim Callaghan back at the head of our Govt.
To some extent Cameron has been forced into letting things slip for a number of reasons. First, it is hard to make an objective judgement on most of the expenses claims as most were cleared by the Fees Office and one is reduced to maiing value judgements, not an easy task. Second, a number of Cameron’s own team were vulnerable to having used the expenses system to their advantage while having done nothing that was outside the rules. Third, we should not understimate the level of anger within the parliamentary party at the stance Cameron took. Many Mps felt that he had protected his own and let the rest hang out to dry in the local papers.
The key moment of retreat by Cameron was over Bill Cash. When the Cash revelations came out Cameron said that he had “serious questions to answer”, and I think he may have seen this as an opportunity to get rid of a man who would be a seriosu thorn in the flesh of a future Tory administration. Cash, whatever we may think of him, is a fighter and a lawyer and stood his ground. I think Cameron realised that he had bitten off more than he could chew and pulled back.
All in all, Cameron has played a very diffiult hand pretty well in the circumstances, riding the wave of public opinion and anger from his own party. This will have consequences for him in the future as some Mps wont forgive him for what has happned but if the Tories win the next election there will be alot of new MPs who can provide Cameron with cover and support.
Cameron’s success can be measured by the fact that the Tories have lost between 3 and 6 percentage points since the end of April, while Labour has lost around 6 from a much lower base. Labour have lost around 20% of their support since April and the Tories between 7 and 14% of their support.
The name for the element ‘Gallium’, discovered by Paul-Emile Lecoq, arose via a multilingual pun too.
“Were Johnson, a “clean skin” in the whole saga, to clear out his cabinet of those tainted by expenses, then a stark dividing line with Cameron’s team would be facing the voters.”
Too late to have much effect, IMO.
Expenses are yesterday’s shock!horror stories, the voters have mostly decided what reaction to take and now they’re almost background. And for good or ill, deservedly or not, Cameron came out ahead on that one. It’d need something really big, really stunning to change the public mind-set, otherwise it’ll be read as mere opportunistic political smearing (which the original exposes weren’t, they were a window into the rotten heart of the political class). It’d need to be an expose of Maxwell-at-the-Mirror proportions.
Not only would Johnson have to cobble together a clean cabinet (he’ll be lucky), to garner any credibility he’d also have to cobble together a whole new narrative for a manifesto - and that would be much more difficult in the time available, besides being damn near impossible with the MPs he’s got.
Tim: we’ve always known you can write well.
So do it. Always. And cut out the crap you usually waste all our time with. I suspect you’ll need a name change first, though.
Of course it is not a decent ‘considered’ article - its riven with innuendo.
Cameron has seen a close aid and his wife announce they will not be standing again. He has called on Tories to face their constituents. So where does ‘Tim’ draw his conclusions from?
From a cheap bit of politicking from a Tatton Labourite - thats where. Meantime Darling still presides over the Treasury after multiple flipping and Brown still draws expenses from his ‘flipped’ real home.
And ‘Labour sacking everyone’ is hardly a good start to an election campaign - especially when they have been supine for 12 years.
“The Conservative bandwagon”.
Interesting choice of term tim.
Are you saying you believe there is currently one or will be one in an election?
FPT #420
Richard - who are you favouring at Norwich North… surely the LibDems will prevail over the Greens doncha think?
53 - Bill Cash paid the money back though. He started off justifying it, and then paid it back.
The good thing about the expenses row is that the anglophobic unionist trio Lib-Lab-Con total vote will get smaller and smaller. Both the Far Left and Far Right, Nationalist and Green Parties will all gain. FPTP will start to work against the big three some day.
Disappointingly sensible article from tim!
However - I think he is wrong on several counts.
1) “David Cameron seems to have gambled that expenses will not resonate with voters at the General Election.”
No, he was not making that gamble. It was clear from the start that the Conservative Party would be damaged by the scandal, along with Labour and (to a lesser extent) the LibDems. Cameron moved swiftly and as effectively as possible to limit the damage, but he could not eliminate it altogether. And indeed, the party has seen poorer Euro election results than originally hoped for, and a fall in the opinion polls. It could have been a lot worse - and has been worse for Labour - but Cameron did as much as he could.
2) “The allegations include some of his closest and most senior colleagues and aware of how inexperienced a victorious Conservative Parliamentary Party will likely be, Cameron chose not to open the can of worms.”
The allegations include a few of his closest colleagues, but they are mostly not substantiated allegations, and few Conservative front-benchers are amongst the worst offenders. As far as I can see, Gove and Osborne are completely clean. The case against Lansley and Maude looks worse, but no worse than probably half the House. And tim conveniently forgets that Mackay was out on his ear PDQ.
3) “Were Johnson, a “clean skin” in the whole saga, to clear out his cabinet of those tainted by expenses, then a stark dividing line with Cameron’s team would be facing the voters.”
Johnson is indeed a ‘clean skin’, but it is not plausible to think that he could form a government based exclusively of those who, fairly or unfairly, have been tained by expenses.
And that is the nub of the problem. The Telegraph, with its indiscriminate mud-slinging, has tainted the majority of MPs, especially senior ones. In some cases fairly, but in many cases unfairly. (Take Sir Alan Beith, for example - someone 100% clean in fact, but smeared by the Telegraph on a completely spurious charge of double-claiming with his wife).
I believe the outcome will be that all three main parties will try to play down the expenses scandal at the election, since none of them comes out of it with a clean reputation. I don’t therefore expect it to be a big issue between the parties, except perhaps locally in some constituencies. But it will certainly still resonate with voters, and the ‘plague on all your houses’ factor will persist.
But, as I said some weeks ago, politics in the UK is largely a zero-sum game between two or occasionally three parties in each constituency. All three will suffer, but it looks as though Labour will suffer most.
I don’t think a Johnson leadership would change that, and I certainly don’t think Johnson would try to make political capital out of it if he were leader. More likely, he’d be trying to draw a line under the whole sorry business.
43.
Which other highly-motivated and influential Labour politicians would support Johnson in this?”
A good question. Denham set out the Bliarite position on redistribution (we don’t really want to mention it let alone do it) the other day. Hangers-on like Byrne, Blears, Hain and Woolas might support Johnson with an eye to the future but I could not see the intellectual(sic) pretenders such as Blunkett, Purnell, Reid and Clarke backing the pouting postie, let alone Her Royale Harrietness. Milburn, of course, has gone off to sulk and spend more time with his money. Anyone got a lordship of some manor to sell him?
A great Spanish-English one
http://www.linguistlist.org/issues/10/10-1515.html
Tim, fair play to you, a very good article and after the Murray match it will hopefully generate a decent discussion.
to deal with your hypothesis, I think the answer is it doesn’t matter for 2 reasons.
Firstly the media is definitely in a “we want Labour out mood” echoing the population as a whole
Secondly, if following your argument Johnson were to become PM just before the GE, who would be left in the cabinet? Harriet Harman. None of the rest can really be described as “clean” on the expenses front.
anyway I am off to dig my pond while Murray hopefully wins.
See you all later and again well done Tim. You have proved you can be other than a prat when you want to be!
Surely Harriet Harman, the obvious alternative to Alan Johnson, is also personally clean on expenses. She has also made quite a good fist of defending her less scrupulous colleagues, which should win her a few PLP votes.
54
Sneaky AND self-reverential - from the french - oh yes…
Swine flu hits CCHQ
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/07/swine-flu-creeps-closer-to-cameron.html
Lab scum will be hoping the EDP or UKIP will split the Tory vote in the Norwich North by election, however it is the Lab voters who will be switching, not Tory voters. The WLQ is about the come back and smash Labour into the political abyss. The Lib Dems will become the main party of the Left as many ethnic minorities have switched their support from Labour to Lib Dem. Lib Dems in power in 15 years time?
If that was the strategy then Johnson would need time to convince the electorate who are otherwise bored with and resentful towards Brown and his administration.The chance may have been there after the Euros but I suspect that Labour has now “missed the bus.”Apart from Brown,a machine politician ,they are simply not ruthless enough.
54.
Which unelected Ministerial mouthful did a Harley Street dentist recently describe as ‘Le coq’s poor teef’?
50 - slackbladder - it has been reduced to £12500 for all new rent and mortgage claims.
45 NickP
Surely the size of the second home is irrelevant, since there is already a limit on the maximum claim.
69 ctd
I think the Lib Dems are the preferred Left of Centre party to represent UK resident EU citizens, ethnic minorities and citizens from other commonwealth countries. The Lib Dems need to get their act together now to make sure they replace Labour because I can foresee a 20 year period of Tory government starting next year.
A YouGov poll puts Labour on the same level of support as the SNP across the UK!!!
Now that is damning. Last Rites sort of stuff for New Labour and the prawn cocktail offensive.
Money Marketing YouGov Poll
“Only 5 per cent of IFAs would vote for Labour if a general election was held tomorrow. A YouGov/Money Marketing survey of 316 advisers shows 58 per cent would vote Conservative with the LibDems second on 9 per cent while the Scottish National Party tie at 5 per cent with Labour.”
60. david, Yes Cash paid the money back but it was clear during the day that the news came out that he was being hung out to dry ala Steen and Viggers. Cash and Cameron reached a compromise and I think it marks the moment where Cameron realised that he had gone far enough and couldn’t go further.
Good article Tim.
Murray loses first set…
The curse of Gordo???
78. Still 4 more sets available!
BTW, did this guy get inspiration from Milliband?
http://richardwiseman.wordpress.com/
78, quite possibly.
Let’s hope he can bring it back.
45, 73 I think it’s a good point by NPMP. The state should pay for no more than a small pied a terre, if the MP wants something big enough to house his ego he should pay for it.
I would make three further points:
The element for house purchase should not rise after the MP is elected: one you have bought the property, the mortgage will be based on the purchase price. So although this element of the costs allowance should rise year on year, the increase should only be available to MPs elected in that year.
Secondly, Gordon (and others with grace and favour homes) should not be entitled to receive ACA as he has no need of one, as his second home is funded by the state. All MPs should be expected to fund one home, and GB should therefore not be allowed to designate his Scottish home as his second home.
Thirdly, MPs should be expected to charge the cheaper of the two homes to the taxpayer.
75. A new left of centre party is required to replace Labour, why don’t the Lib Dems start showing some killer attitude and kill Labour for good. The Lib Dems need to get revenge on Labour, as it was Labour that killed off the Liberal Party.
The SNP has killed Labour in Scotland for good. Labour are will be heading into administration after they lose the next GE, but don’t they deserve it?
68.
I must admit that when I saw the headline “Swine Flu - not many deaths expected”, I thought that a half-literate sub-editor was describing Mandy’s holiday departure as a potential Ceauscescu escape moment.
The expenses scandal will have an effect that lasts beyond the next election. Already we have seen surprise in some quarters that the others figure remains high in polls but it is indicative that people do not want to forget.
The voters who will be affected the most are low information voters, this has managed to get through into their consciousness but this is unlikely to be replaced by anything more positive. Their votes are more likely to be based on expenses as opposed to people who follow politics closely.
Of course there are those of us that do follow politics closelty and are not prepared to forget as well but some memories are short when partisan point scoring is the order of the day.
(p.s. tim could always write like this if he wanted; much better than the repetition of the same point over and over again).
Wow! Remarkable first 3 points in the second set for Murray. 0-40 and that second one was really impressive.
82. ctd The Lib Dems favoured a federal UK so why don’t they propose the creation of an English Parliament? They’ll win votes over from Tories and Labour, and even UKIP.
Andrew de Moray did Scotia proud in that last game!
Break of the first game to Murray.
Fiery reply from Murray - breaks back to love!!
Murray breaks Roddick early in second set
78.
“Murray loses first set…
The curse of Gordo???”
Possibly. Who is this Mandy Reddick who seems to be controlling play?
88, arrr, that be good news. But it takes more than one wiffle stick to do a morris dance.
Murray can fight back effectively - he’s done it before so could do it again. Don’t write him off as he is a fighter.
72: Exactly…so the limit was excessive which I think most people can agree upon. But if the limit is a guide to the type of claims, then MP’s cannot indiviually burden all the blame to the types of claims which were made.
If a company gives all its employees £10,000 towards a cost fo a new car, then it can’t really moan about people claiming that amount. Maybe it should look on those more favourably which claimed less…and we should highlight those which provide good value for money better…but not punish those which claimed what the rules allowed.
The system was bad, everyone knows it.
More on that Banana poster at:
http://richardwiseman.wordpress.com/
“Find out how thinking about a banana can make you more creative”
I saw it on the tube this morning but this is the only place I could find it online!
The first set was strangely uninvolving. The crowd have at last woken up - a good sign for Murray.
86 Because they want to emasculate England by dividing it up into EU-inspired “regions”.
However, although I support federalism, the size of England is a problem, as it is not easy to see how an English government would bring government closer to the people. I would prefer to see maybe a light-touch English parliament that met perhaps a few days a year to pass legislation, and devolve services more locally to regions to be determined by the people. The English Parliament’s main function could then be to provide oversight and audit functions.
81 - The way that expenses has affected government policy is the biggest issue, for example, why was there no attempt to close the loophole over CGT and flipping? With MPs benefitting it looks as though it was glossed over for their own financial gain.
Of course it’s the government who carry the guilt for it because they had the votes that could have legislated against it and they didn’t.
94.
“The system was bad, everyone knows it”
A total myth. For the purposes which it was deliberately designed for (allowing every MP who wanted to to claim an extra £20 grand salary-extension with minimal effort or accountability), the system was very good indeed.
It is only the MPs trying to draw a smokescreen over this past intent who are pushing the ‘bad system’ myth.
98: The entire CGT system is too complicated. Its the tax I like dealing with the least.
Aye, good article from Tim; neutral and analytical, as is much of the discussion which follows it - pb.com at its best.
Agree pretty much with the main thrust of the article, and certainly that Johnson would now be better placed to advance the anti-sleaze agenda - if AJ were to take over he can put together a cabinet untainted by the embarassments of the last few months in a way that simlpy isn’t open to DC.
But there are many reasons why the expenses imbroglio is more damaging to Labour than the Tories. Putting AJ in charge places Labour on the front foot over the cleanliness of the front bench, but Labour still faces two problems. Firstly, the mood is anti-establishment, and Labour ARE the establishment. They can try and paint the Tories as the establishment too, but this gives the opposition an authority which they otherwise lack. Secondly, the mood is anti-incumbent, and Labour have more incumbents.
Nevertheless, putting AJ in charge would certainly take SOME of the negatives off the expenses story for Labour.
What’s OGH please?
102, our gracious host, I think.
98 CGT isn’t a loophole though, the same generous interpretation seems to be accorded anyone with a second home.
The main problem is that MPs have come to a cosy relationship with HMRC and are allowed to claim tax-free expenses without any requirement for receipts, necessity for doing the job, reasonableness etc.
I think that any rushed and cack-handed attempt to change the system will make things worse, as is the idea of making Parliament responsible to some sort of quango, in a country where the High Court of the Queen in Parliament is the ultimate authority. We could end up with parliament being more in the control of the executive.
I am becoming increasingly disillusioned by politics: we are again in a situation where there is a political class which divides up the spoils to suit itself, ensures that it has a continued right to govern, and ensures that real change is not possible. Nick Palmer & co: you are my servants, and it is about time you started behaving likewise.
Murray serving aces at almost 2:1 the rate of Roddick. Who would have predicted that?
78. MM:
I predicted it first
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/
This is the same Alan Johnson who spent 8k on an envolope stuffer. Hardly a clean skin.
Oh Andy Murray!
We’re in no hurray!
Scotland loves you
Oh Andy Murray!
India gets aid for its space program..
Miliband “We have no plans to scale down the provision of aid to India, nor to stop the provision of aid by 2011. Our aid expenditure under current spending plans amounts to £285m in 2008/09, £275m in 2009/10, and £280m in 2010/11. ”
Fecking disgrace !
99: Come on, you’re just playing with my words. Was the system a sham devised by MPs to feather their pockets…Yes
But, MPs do have costs associated with running a second house. Which under HMRC rule if you have a expense directly as a result of undertaking employment, you can have that expense reimbursed….
Beyond that simple fact..where the rules far too lax and was the entire system a con? Yes..
Not a bad article actually.
Alan Johnson won’t become Labour leader though, so its a non starter really.
102 - Our Genial Host (aka Mike Smithson).
I always thought it was Our Gorgeous Host?
It would certainly be no misnomer!
I have to say, its a good article from Tim, without any of the usual stuff embedded within it. Conversation on PB could be so much more interesting it Tim posted stuff like this.
As to the premise, I strongly believe that that the nation wants rid of Labour full stop and no amount of changing leader would make any difference to the end result. Johnson might save some seats in comparison to Gordon Brown, but IMO his admission that he wasnt up to being Prime Minister would hamper him considerably whatever Roger might say.
101 “pb.com at its best.”
Perhaps Morus’ warning played its part, Cookie? Or it could perhaps have been the distraction of his deliberate Latin error. (Nobody would surely think that a man of his education and hairstyle would be weak on his accusatives.
)
“Were Johnson, a “clean skin” in the whole saga, to clear out his cabinet of those tainted by expenses, then a stark dividing line with Cameron’s team would be facing the voters.”
Well, that isn’t going to happen, is it.
Next!
“pb.com at its best.”
Although, I feel someone isn’t posting in the comments….
I’m sorry to spoil the party (4th July tomorrow and all that), but who the hell thinks that Alan Johnson would make a first class PM and Leader of the Labour Party?
I certainly dont and plenty of others share my opinion.
While tims article and premise might be anodyne, and we’re all in a love in; I myself can’t stand the guy or his smears or his politics.
Murray wins second set…
Game on!
Yes, heroic Briton Andy Murray strikes back against Roddick.
Whilst I do want Murray to win I rather like Roddick.
118, does he have to be first class? He’d be better than Brown.
Our Glorious Leader has written an article about Burma in the Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gordon-brown/ban-ki-moon-in-burma-the_b_225035.html
and the spats continue…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8132582.stm
An ‘interesting’ article, and fair play to tim for writing it. For the sake of transparency, would you give the curious reader an insight into your relationship with the Labour Party please. I’m guessing from the clues in previous posts that you could be an activist in the NW of England, but are you employed by them in a more official capacity?
Re The Smearbot Article. Was that it? He supposed told us he was working on it, over the course of I think 2-3 days, and that is all he could produce. I thought we were getting juicy stuff on 2nd jobs, dodgy expenses, Cameron / Squeaky background, instead the Smearbot knocked out a few lines last night after the news about Squeaky broke. IMO, not worth the wait.
For god’s sake Murray!
Imagine losing that game after being 40-0 up. So typical of your British nature:(
120. We have had enough from second class leaders.
Of course it may be that britain can’t produce a first class leader in this 21st century.
Was Thatcher the last? You cannot persuade me that Major, Blair and now Brown are or were of the top grade.
118 It’s the punting point though, Weathercock. From that perspective, I don’t give a stuff what kind of a Leader he would be. My money’s down on a big Tory win though, so anything that puts that at risk is a concern for me.
I don’t think AJ would in fact make that much difference but he does represent a last desperate roll of the dice and as such, it could just unsettle the markets.
Tim makes that point well, even if you don’t agree with it.
118. weathercock
I agree with you Alan Johnson is already laughably out of his depth at the Home Office IMO. Some of the sound bites he comes out with make me laugh. Some may say it makes him down to earth but I think the voters are not looking for a happy incomptent.
Gordon supported by Labour have presided over an economic collapse and an economic dunkirk. The fact that the main industires that have ‘created wealth’ over the last 10 years had to be underwritten by the State shows how lame this countries finances and industries have become under Labour. Were it not for this fact the real cost of Labours mismanagement would be even more palpable, whilst the true economic impact is hidden by government intervention. The real cost in peoples purses and Wallets now and in the future mean that Labour even led by Postman pat are headed for the knackers yard!
Every Cloud has a silver lining! 
126 Blair at least had a thin veneer of first class leadership.
Brown is clearly just MDF…
Roy Hattersley: what is the point of Labour?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6626286.ece
Interesting debate Tim. The dimension that you may have overlooked is that Cameron still has flexibility to change the Shadow Cabinet before the GE. He has made clear on several occasions that the Scrutiny Panel provided “rough justice” and given that it sat over a very short period it could not possibly have acted in a Judicial capacity. A more legalistic “independent” review of the expenses claims for all MP’s is still to come plus the possibility of police prosecutions which could cause possibly unforseen adverse publicity for one/more parties.
I accept the Osborne case could be slightly problematical if the investigation drags on past the GE but this may be mitigated if Cameron moves Osborne to a different(probably strategic)role and, of course, Cameron may have planned this in any event.
127: Desperate parties do desperate things. Although I still beleive that labour would be better served by going into an election with Brown, losing, then blaming it all on him +Blair and reforming behind a new leader after a general elction or two down the road.
Having Johnson leading to a hidious defeat, then picking up the pieces could be even worse for them.
O/T
Lord Barnett, speaking on BBC’s Straight Talk, has called for the Barnett formula to be replaced by a system “based on need”, and warned that there may be a need for major cuts in expenditure and tax rises after the end of the recession.
With so much that’s ‘free’ in Scotland but ‘charged for’ in England, basing anything on ‘need’ looks likely to be contentious.
Hattersley is a socialist, which sets him apart from every member of the Cabinet. Egalitarianism = socialism. Equality of opportunity = Blairism.
118
Weathercock, if tim had posted this in the comments, I doubt you would have reacted as you did. You know for sure that I hold no brief to support Tim, but its a fair first attempt at a thread, and has provoked civilised discussion. Long may it remain this way, if not …..
Why does anyone think that Alan Johnson would be any use? His recent remarks on ID cards were very wishy-washy and his repeated insistence that he would be no good at being a PM make him an easy, easy target.
On top of that there is his incredibly undistinguished record as a governmental achiever…
Changing from Brown to Johnson would merely change the target. There is plenty of ammo to chuck at Johnson and he would spend so much time dodging it that he would never do anything else.
110.
I think we basically agree on most of this. The allowance levels and reimbursement system were origially set in a way which would allow MPs whose main home was outside London (even if nowhere near their constituency) to claim overnight food and accommodation allowances for Westminster work without receipts to a considerable level. Unless they chose to occupy top-flight property, those MPs who chose to rent could also pocket a sizable non-audited profit every year. Nobody really bothered about the issue of letting adult kids/ex-wives/brothers-in-laws etc stay in the properties for long or short stays. MPs buying properties were allowed to claim mortgage interest to the same level as the rent allowance maximum. Hence those ’speculating’ paradoxically had less ‘funny’ claims than those living more frugally - they didn’t need to stick in any receipts as the principal housing cost gobbled up most of the allowance.
The MPs who really caught the public eye were largely those whose main (or only) home was in London. They felt hard-done-by compared with those who did things the other way round and stuck in all sorts of expense receipts to pad out claims for their country piles. Then some realised that there was more money to be had by putting in claims for London Mortgages and ‘flipped’.
Matters were complicated further by Ministers who thought they were missing out, despite being paid extra to do a second job which did not reduce their MP pay-packet. Possibly the worst ones, besides Jacqui Smith and that Harrow MP who were really taking the pi$$, were those who claimed for the London house they and their families live in full-time as if it was their ’second home’ when the little cottage they have in their northern constitituency as their ‘main home’ was long-paid-for and rarely-occupied. These MPs, some of whose claims have always appeared potentially fraudulent even in terms of the loose ‘rules’ were added to by those like the Keens, whose ‘first home’ was neither occupied nor distant and of course arch-socialist (sic) Harry Cohen who recognised (like the early Caroline Spelman) that the ‘first home’ (where you keep your Nanny) doesn’t even have to be anywhere near either London or your constituency so why not have it in a holiday centre.
134. Hattersley must be utterly frustrated with Brown and the Cabinet to write that!
It reminds me of Labour in the 1980s more interested in fighting each other because there policies have failed. I suppose it is jut part of the normal Labour political cycle.
136.
” there is his incredibly undistinguished record as a governmental achiever…”
This is measured using the Reid-Clarke-Blunkett index!
139 To be fair, he hasn’t yet fallen off the Smith Scale!
138
” Hattersley must be utterly frustrated with Brown..”
He was on TV yesterday, full of praise for the Labour re-lunch.
Tim, a good article presenting the case against well.
Question though is what did Cameron say he would do as against the others and the expectations from public. Cameron gained advantage because he recognised early the need to say sorry, to not use “the system” as an excuse and put in place an internal disciplinary process. He made point that it transparency that resolve the issues.
The disciplinary process was that rule breakers would lose the whip, those who had made claims within the rules but which were not defensible on basis of spirit of the rules would pay back those claims, if they refused they would against lose the whip. He also said that the individual MP would additionally need to meet and defend his actions to his constituency party and his electors and if they weren’t happy then de-selections could occur.
This is a high risk strategy as, despite the dissent, it did not put all the power in Cameron’s hands on life & death of careers and while the process was the same for all, the outcomes could be varied dependent on opinion not fact.
What about the other two major party leaders? Gordon Brown initially didn’t recognise the danger and has become all too familiar made announcements prematurely and without seeking buy in across his own party or consulting deeply enough nor where cross party agreement was necessary did he consult other leaders before announcing. He, IMHO, still thinks the expenses stuff is a distraction from what he considers people are concerned about - “this month I’ll be cleaning up politics” as if its a temporary hiccup and showing action is enough. No Labour MP has been ordered to pay back except where rules have been demonstrably broken and while MPs have been deselected that has only been in cases where evidence is rules have been broken, not just stretched. So we have a Chancellor & PM who have both stretched
Clegg has done nothing at all but talk fast and focus on one issue (possibly because he is among the minority of Lib Dem MPs who has stretched the rules, unlike Cable for example). In the case of Lord Rennard the silence was deafening. Think the LD strategy has been to claim clean hands by taking no action hoping their sins are lost in the noise and by not disciplining any MP the public gaze will not alight on them.
The public expectation? That those MPs who seriously broke the spirit of the rules as well as those who actually broke them should be disciplined. I think so far Cameron has delivered closer to that than the others but at the cost of giving a sharper focus on Tory troughers than has been put on Labour or Lib Dem.
135. MTF. I am sure that I am being quite civilised.
BUT I cannot stand the guy/girl/bot that is tim. Tims smears innuendo and outright lies on behalf of the Labour Party and it’s leader makes him an enemy.
141. wage slave
I must have missed that! I watched Rambo instead!
I never liked Rambo films when i was younger so it was a real treat!
I like all the killing!
143.
“Tims smears innuendo and outright lies on behalf of the Labour Party and it’s leader makes him an enemy.”
Even when he writes as ‘Wayne’? For ****’s sake, climb down yourself.
Some info about an IPSOS-Mori poll on what the public want to see cut
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3739493/the-candidates-for-cuts.thtml
Pot and kettle anyone???
http://www.ncbuy.com/news/2009-07-02/1018137.html
138. Martin.
Hattersly is now showing signs of a growing senility, which is a shame for him after a devoted life in politics, and a good wartime record.
He should be kept away from the TV studios for his own sake.
136. Hawkeye
I think a change to Johnson would damage Labour even further, they would be very open to the charge of calls for an immediate election with or without a leader, not waiting several months or naming a date in the future. It would also be percieved rightly as Labour turning in on themseleves. Gordon Brown got a bounce because Blairs depature was ordered and civil. There is no way such a bounce would happen again - it is too late for them. The circumstances of a Change in Labour leadership now would have to be immediate and an election called straight away.
If Johnson is immediatly defending Gordon Browns policies and Government he will not reap any benifit for Labour. The message will be the same and whilst the hatred of Brown may evapourate the support of Labour voters will not come back any more than under Brown. Indeed you could argue it would completly confuse Labour voters.
Good article but I don’t think Johnson being a cleanskin will make that much difference if and when he takes over.
(Tim has been rather restrained in his write-up but surely the notable aspect of Osborne case if that he is both a trougher and an already very rich man, which makes him a greedy pig.)
The point is more that Johnson wouldn’t have got himself into the extraordinary mess with expenses that Gordon has. I shall be going up to Norwich next weekend to canvass but the expectation is that Labour will lose. What Gibson did was bad but there is no logic behind sacking him and leaving other offenders in place. The NEC that’s supposed to be carrying out the disciplinary process does not really believe in what they’re doing.
I disagree with the comments above about Johnson’s performance at the home office. His announcements on crime and anti-social behaviour promise no new legislation, just improving on what’s there already, e.g. making the asbo process work more efficiently. It’s not good for getting headlines, but much more effective potentially in actually making peoples lives more tolerable. We don’t want to go back to the Blunkett style of Home Secretary.
146.
A totally stupid poll: garbage in, garbage out. ‘Defence’ for example includes equipment for and numbers of squaddies, new aircraft carriers and Trident replacement. Even top generals say that the arguments for/against these elements are grossly-different and sometimes conflicting.
148. I think he is still pretty sharp - he has always dribbled so i dont think that is a sign of being infirm!
I agree that Cameron is in an interesting position with regards his MPs. If he gets overly heavy handed with them then the public perception may be that they are the true villains. However too light a touch and it might be seen that there is an acceptence of sleaze. Whatever your politics it’s undoubtedly more likely than not that DC will form the next government and the strength of his mandate will govern how bold he can be with his choices for ministers. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see David Davis back in the mix for example.
For Labour. If Johnson was to become leader before the next election and win it then I can’t see that it’d be anything other than a disaster (for him, for Labour and for UK plc). He’d be very weak and be damned by saying that GB was better. Labour would be very weak and would have clearly settled for ‘any port in a storm’, and the country would have no rudder. However Johnson could rise after an election defeat and be able to present himself as having learned lessons etc.
My personal best guess is that Harman will become next Labour leader, although I’ve no strong view as to when. Under her I imagine that the amongst the big players will be Darling and Benn, with Straw taking an elder statesman type role.
151
Wage Slave… Is it a rogue poll?
145. So you think we have a schizophrenic in our midst? Really wage slave even you shouldn’t chain youself to such poppycock.
OT- This can’t be true, surely!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/8131801.stm
147. Can’t wait till our MPs move the UK Parliament there. No second home allowances, they can all sleep on the beach. If the odd coconut falls on their heads there will be random by-elections.
157.
147- I thought they want to become a province of Canada
156. So much for Owens srong and loving attacment to Newcastle United. Cant blame him though.
154.
Not schizophrenic, more a deliberate contrary alter-ego which is so crudely and stupidly-putting the opposition case that it make the ‘real one’ seem sane (ish). Trouble is I can’t work out whether Tim is Wayne or Wayne is Tim!
Expenses could have covered the still detoxifying Tory brand in a thick coating of noxious sludge. It has been Cameron’s biggest challenge - given what was being dredged up (moats, mostly!) it could have been back to the “sleazy Tories” as the overriding message the voters picked up. But when the stories started to surface, he was able to look as though he was a break from the past, by casting aside close firends and Tory grandees alike. He looked as though he was taking it seriously.
Cameron was helped greatly by Gordon’s mixed messages over Blears, in particular, but crucially his earlier failure to sack Smith. Smith did more than anything to ensure that on expenses, Labour - not the Tories - were mercilessly mocked. Brown could have cauterized that wound, but chose not to. It cost him dear. Rather than looking down from the moral highground, Brown wallowed in the mire.
154. If they start polling the rogues at Westminster they could auction the axeman job to help clear the national debt with a double-edged effect.
154.
Not a rogue poll, a worthless one (silly simplistic questions) even if it does seem to indicate that the public want to sacrifice one of Chamereon’s protected holy cows.
Come on Andy!!!
Murray loses the tie-breaker for the third set.
Murray has to win the last two sets. I’m not sure Roddick will let go of both….
Scotland’s Andy Murray isn’t playing to his usual high standards today.
Good article by Tim - but where is he? Suddenly we’ve all got good friendly words for him and he’s not here to read them.
Of course one of the main reasons why no MPs were disciplined as a result of the Scrutiny Panel sittings was that Cameron had, quite rightly, already lopped the heads off a lot of the worst offenders before the panel even met.
(Though of course we all have different ideas about who the worst offenders are - depending upon which actions we each find most distasteful.)
167 I blame the English crowd, who probably want the American to win….
That - and Jonah Brown!
169. I hope Roddick wins because I hate the crowd.
169 - Totally right about Jonah Brown. English patriots should vote Tory next year, just so he cant curse Fabio Capello’s boys at the world cup next year.
If Gordo didn’t have such a blinding hatred for the Tories, he could wish them well and then they would be certain to lose the GE!
Gordon Brown - five more years! (of Britons losing at sporting events…)
162 Gordon’s failure to deal with Smith/Blears and reinstating Malik has left the expenses mess on his door-step.
Darling is also in the frame but he has no entertaining claims just opportunistic flipping ones [the tax return was a corker however :)]
Cameron did an excellent turn when he swapped his Euro PPB for an expenses one. IIRC, most of the coverage was very warm - describing him as statesman-like/PM material - this was a big breakthrough for him.
Gordon has wibbled in comparison and I don’t associate him with any of the decisions to deselect etc - whereas I do associate Cameron [for better or worse] with his.
It’s all irrelevant. Where were we before the expenses scandal broke? The Labour government was heading for a catastrophe because of the economy, recession, authoritarianism, erosion of civil liberties, taxation and so on. The same situation still applies.
Do it for the homeland Andy Murray!
For Scotia!
wage slave @ 99 re expenses system:
For the purposes which it was deliberately designed for (allowing every MP who wanted to to claim an extra £20 grand salary-extension with minimal effort or accountability), the system was very good indeed.
No, even for that it was a rubbish system, with expenses wrongly described as allowances. It may reflect most MPs’ unfamiliarity with how things are done in the real world.
An allowance should be given without regard to how (or even whether) it is spent. Each MP gets the lot as an entitlement. Expenses require receipts.
Tim very thoughtful article.
One question, can you name a cabinet of 24 clean skins from the current mass of Labour MP’s?
To be honest, I think you’d struggle. As am I.
I wonder what a guest article from SeanT would look like…
Thanks everyone for the comments, particularly the ominous ones referring to a first article.
I would make two points about the scrutiny panel.
1.The repayments seem to be random and secret.What is Eleanor Laings £25,000 for? Does it relate to the claim that she avoided $180,000 in CGT?
2.If Osborne, or anyone else for that matter gets done for something not revealed by the scrutiny panel, does that taint the whole exercise ?
178. That is the good question. It is no good putting Johnson in (nice guy shame he says he is not up to being PM) and surrounding him with a bunch of *#%!$. I think you would have to dump most of the current cabinet, and God knows there is not much talent on the back benches to replace them with.
It if it was just a case of replacing Brown Labour might have a chance, sadly for the party the MPs have shown themselves to be in many cases just as bad as their leader in terms of honesty, courage, foresight, and selflessness.
The Labour party is in the hole they are in because their MPs are lousy, not just the leader.
180. Yes, but a similar situation will apply if some of Labour’s MPs get their collars felt.
180 - Ignore the scrutiny panel, what will stick in peoples minds more will be any prosecutions.
nicely done tim
I’d say its a calculated/necessary risk by Cameron. He has done what he needs to do to ’seem’ right in the public eye - thats irrespective of intent.
Johnson? Shouldn’t have spent £7200 on a letter sorter and lots of unreceipted money on food - he is an easy it for ‘clean hands’ - and I cannot see a clean cabinet that isn’t laughably weak.
Even were he to create a ‘clean’ cabinet it could in itslef damage Labour - the charge that they have had to dredge the very darkest recesses of the backbenches just to escape corruption and sleaze…. (and a lot of the Cabinet would be under immediate threat at an election)
From Nelson’s latest offering (wait for the smearfest
),
“The Bank of England was supposed to use a third of its asset purchase facility to buy private sector assets – yet over 97% of the £150bn is being used to finance Brown’s misbehaviour by buying UK debt. Something like 0.7% of the cash has gone to private firms, of which half to foreign-owned ones like France Telecom and EON.”
175. Authoritarianism, unpopular? If only. Its extremely popular, public flogging, the death penalty, castration of rapists, execution of child abusers, cctv on every corner, police having the ability to arrest without due cause, the interment of foreign nationals etc, all these things would be, in isolation extraordinarily popular.
Civic freedoms are important to those with an interest in politics, but they are not in the slightest of importance to the bulk of voters. Ironically the utterly useless incorporation of the echr through the HRA has brought the whole concept of rights and freedom into disrepute.
The general feeling exists now that human rights are what criminals use to avoid their punishments.
183 And these are unlikely before the GE I would have thought - judging by how slowly the wheels of justice grind.
If they did hit the press before May, then it would be very unhelpful PR for Labour.
I think that the expenses stuff will be:
a) old news
b)a plague on all their houses
c) anti-politics voting effect/smaller party boost and
d) largely irrelevant in the face of a GE about jobs/economy/time for change [that old refrain] etc.
OT News: TheyWorkforYou data now goes back to 1935.
Tom Steinberg: http://www.mysociety.org/2009/07/03/theyworkforyou-redesign/
OT Bradshaw responds to Dale
http://www.labourlist.org/response_to_iain_dale__the_pride_political_debate_ben_bradshaw
That “good luck!” anvil which Jonah Brown strapped onto Andy Murray’s back proved just too much for the plucky Brit to lug around the court…
Murray doesn’t make the final.
187 - Hammer, Hit, Nail, On, Head.
Jonah Brown strikes again
Scotland’s Andy Murray hit by the curse of Jonah again.
Jonah curse strikes again!
Gordon Brown Jinxed Andy Murray!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_VtzJPpPxkgw/Skyc6Ht7u0I/AAAAAAAAAeA/iMhMx2QOWC8/s1600-h/Andy_Murray+gordon+fart.jpg
Semi O/T when trying to type “Jonah” via predictive text on my mobile, one of the suggestions it comes up with is “Knob”
Murray falls from 93% to 77% British on andymurrayometer.com
197
have been laying Murray all afternoon since Gordon intervened - i wanted Murray to win - but you can risk money when jonah is around
actually i based my bet on first serve percentage stats - Murray was below par on this - Roddick in top form - but maybe that was Jonah at work
Interesting viewpoint on LabourHome forum about what Labour’s ideology is/or not.
http://www.labourhome.org/forum/?p=6218
Murray now right out to 4.6/1 with Betfair to win SPOTY.
It looks like a one horse race with Button at 0.75/1.
A nice article about the Bulgarian elections
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,634095,00.html
Jonah Brown strikes again!!
How predictable.
A lot of people will have lost a LOT of money.
And, frankly, Murray could still learn a lot from Henman when it comes to acting like a gentlemen - both on AND off court.
Swearing is appalling sportsmanship. No excuse for it.
189 - I think Labour are barking up the wrong smear tree here. It may well be true regarding some Tories have less than equal views of gays, however the Tories just trundle out the likes of Hunky Dunky, Herbert and media luuvy Dale, with them saying “would we be involved in a homophobic party?” or similar such lines.
Bryant in particular probably wants to be careful, as the obviously line against him from the Tories is,
“we don’t feel the need to post pictures of ourselves on the internet in only our y-fronts to prove our position on this issue”
201 - Might be good value, if Murray wins the US Open. He got to the final last year.
Will Murray now vote SNP?
It’s a mark of deep shame for Britain that Brown is an even worse leader than Berlusconi
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/g8/5735189/G8-Silvio-Berlusconi-has-offended-nearly-every-G8-leader.html
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2009/07/03/the-berlusconi-solution-stop-spreading-bad-economic-news.aspx
203, was watching on and off. Disappointed and mildly surprise.
What did he say? ****ing Brown!, perchance?
207 - Am I the only person on here who actually likes Berlusconi?
207 - Berlusconi’s shin-digs are definite winners over anything Brown would be able to put on
204 Yup. That’s why I don’t understand their decision to go large on this now.
It makes no sense to me - there are no big gay agenda stories in the media and the only thing PBers have noticed was a poll in PinkNews FFS ??!!
Surely even in the Bunker, Labour can’t be reading PB/Dale/Pink and thinking - Christ, quick - smear the Tories as they’re picking up ‘our’ voters?
If this is the case, then they really do need their heads examining.
211 - I think, reminding the public/The Gayers of section 28 allows Labour to play the nasty Tory Toffs card to the rest of the electorate.
Unlucky Andrew de Moray!
Scotland is proud of you.
English tennis=LOL
Scottish tennis=half decent
Swiss tennis=Excellent!
209 I think he’s great value
The hair transplant, changing laws so that he couldn’t be prosecuted once he was out of office, the girls, puffing himself on his own TV stations - Berlusconi is a class act.
Much better box-office than Brown.
Knowing how the dark lord works, is this gay stuff all a cover for some bad news on the dark lord boyfriend front?
213. American tennis = three-quarters decent
Guido “Brown curse knocks Murray out”
http://order-order.com/2009/07/03/brown-curse-knocks-murray-out/
LOL! Well I did think Murray might get to the final (and face ritual slaughter at Federer’s hands) but to fall at the Semi’s again is surprising and must surely be down to the Curse of Brown?
At least Jonah will be out of office next year so he won’t be around to jinx next years Wimbeldon?
What’s all this “Jonah” stuff? Didn’t Brown wish Murray luck at the beginning of last week, rather than right before this match?
Whilst a coherent argument, I think it suffers from the belief that AJ can -
A - Energise the PLP
B - Connect with the public
C - Put together a coherent policy position to distance themselves economically from GB, explain how they can deliver more for less and sort out the National Debt
D - Put together a quality cabinet with nothing suspect in the expenses (cue the Daily Telegraph)
Now any new PM has the advantage of the public being prepared to listen for a while. Can he deliver it all in the space of 2-6 months? Now bringing in the previous issue over swine flu. If the NHS collapses under the strain, then I don’t think the expenses of the Shadow Cabinet will matter a thing. If the NHS succeeds then it could well and truly be game on.
There is also the second situation. Looking at the mortgage claim for GO, I’m not so sure that he will get a simple “it was within the rules” report. I think this could result in it was entirely proper claim. That would then vindicate Cameron’s approach to the issue. Don’t forget he has not said he will be perfect, but he would attempt to atone. That is a very different message - I can’t undo this, the Shadow Cabinet can’t, but we can recognise your anger and try to undo some of the damage. He moved the debate on honesty into the economics arena and has won hands down. Also, the decision to push the expenses issue to a constituency level. Gove had an open meeting, explained what he did and got a positive response. Mackay did not and went. He had played a subtle line on this, bringing public opinion along with him quite well.
Now, if GO is found to have made a technical error, I think he can hold onto him. If he is found to have broken the rules, he can sack him and watch his opinion poll ratings rise. The public will compare it with Blears and find DC got it right. If GO isn’t sacked in these circumstances, then it will spell trouble.
203 - What did Nixon say ’show me a good loser and I will show you a loser.’ Although, if he is going to be angry it is better to do it in private rather than in public. I think he still has a shot at the US Open this year, after all he reached the final there last year. On Owen, I think this is good for England as he will be playing with Rooney which will help for the World Cup.
2204
Were they members when the Tories were passing anti-gay legislation, did they campaign against?
Gay Tories always seem to be in a state of denial. It was the Liberal-left that campaigned for, and made the social changes, that allowed Gay’s to ‘come out’ the Tory party did nothing.
Oh sorry they did do something, rolled about in the aisles at Jim Davidson’s homophobic jokes, which he reeled out with some relish at Tory party conferences.
211. Labour think that issues such as civil rights belongs to them alone. They can’t get their thick heads round the idea that the Tories just don’t give a monkeys about whether or not someone is gay. The sort of people who did care are dead or soon will be, and were found in all parties despite what Labour would have you think.
Let Labour fight old ‘battles’.
The Tories could make a big deal and name all their gay MPs and PPCs and challenge Labour to do the same. Remember it is not that long ago that it used to be some sort of state secret that Mandelson is gay.
212 You’re right - it does, but does anyone really care or think it is relevant nowadays?
It reminds me of those Labour supporters who attempted to hold Thatcher responsible for the expenses scandal - it just doesn’t have any traction/sounds very silly.
The world has moved on and Labour are campaigning on ten year old ground.
If they were going to win my vote back, then they’re going to need some seriously smart ideas, rather than Tory bashing.
Plato is middle-class and 42.
204. True, the Conservatives have had huge difficulties on this front with regards to race also. They have lacked the courage to challenge some of the recent government behaviour and legislation which has being a disaster for relations between different peoples on these isles.
Labour think immigrant communities will always vote for them, that is not true, they are some large immigrant groups out there that are tribally loyal, largely because they get what they want out of the government, but other groups most certainly not.
A Conservative Party revived could begin to eat into the (non muslim) Indian vote, and could even turn around the current percentages of about 70%+ vote to Labour to Tory. In terms of West Africans as well, the cultural values of many west africans is deeply conservative , in fact more like that of the 1950s conservatives then the modern ones.
Because the Tories lack leading members of these groups amongst their ranks, they fell they have to play up to these groups in the same repugnant way that the Labour party does, they feel they have to do the whole ‘worship diversity’ ‘multiculturalism is good for us’ ‘immigrants do jobs we dont want to etc’ that Labour does, sometimes they even over compensate.
You dont need to pander to people from these groups, you just need to make them know that they are welcome and that voting Conservative is in their specific interest and the wider interests of the nation.
219. I think its just a giggle.
222. “It was the Liberal-left that campaigned for, and made the social changes”
Social change happens regardless of politics, something the ‘liberal-left’ find hard to accept. Was Britain a more tolerant country in 1979 or 1997 after 18 years of Tory rule?
224 - You have the try and think like Gordon Brown.
The evil tories after they’ve cut by 10% they will eat babies and hang the gayers.
The people need to be aware of what the evil Tories will do once they get into power.
222 coldstone - perhaps your point would be a great guest post?
Can I write a guest post about Andrew de Moray and why he is so great?
Sympathies to Andy Murray. Scootsmun politicians endorsements is nae lucky.
Best hope next year, under an English government!
Alan Johnson stuffed the public responses to “public consultations” on banning cigarette displays in newsagents with people from selected (taxpayer-funded) pressure groups
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/4076290/Government-fixing-health-consultations-with-taxpayer-funded-groups.html
222. Section 28 was offensive, but the behaviour of some organisations and local authorities in bringing in literature that promoted homosexuality to young children was also offensive.
Section 28 was wrong, because it meant that homosexuality became a no go area at school. That might have been the intention, but it wasnt the legislation. Section 28 was wrong because it said that a certain kind of behaviour was wrong and unacceptable. It is not the job of the State to regulate what goes on in adults bedrooms, or the choice of lifestyle people have.
Section 28 was used as an excuse for teachers to turn a blind eye to bullying of children who felt they might be gay. Bullying is and always has been rife in schools, but when kids knew they could get away with a certain kind of bullying it was a red rag to a bull.
I have for a long time believed that homosexuals should be allowed to marry, and acquire the same rights and responsibilities open to other couples. But that doesnt mean that i am happy with the idea of equality legislation being used to enforce adoption agencies to accept gay couples.
OT. With the betting markets on Norwich North now showing an almost certain Conservative win, I’ve noticed sportingbet have been resourceful and opened an interesting book on who finishes second.
Even at first glance, pricing Labour at 1/2 to come second seems a little too tight and appears soley based on the first small sample opinion poll. However recent local election results show a much closer 3 way race with the both the Lib Dems and Greens in play.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/norwich-north-could-labour-finish-fourth-15537.html
If Labour are likely to write the seat off soon, I can easily see one of these 2 parties getting on a roll and running them close. I can’t tell whether it will be the Greens or the Lib Dems (who are both priced at 8/1 to come second), so I’ve taken small initial bets on both to get an effective 7/2 bet that Labour drop to third or fourth, which i may top up later.
Can anyone with any local knowledge confirm who will likely run best out of the LibDems and Greens, and how they think the Labour core vote will hold up? Cheers
Latest Cameron email
“Dear P,
I hope you’ve had a good week, watching Wimbledon and enjoying the sunshine. I’ve had a really fast-paced few days, giving an interview for Helen Newlove on her new radio station, delivering a big speech at the Local Government Association conference, and doing everything I can to get Gordon Brown to be honest about his spending cuts.
But one of the most important things that happened this week was the Conservative Party’s Social Action conference. It’s hard to imagine us holding this kind of event three or four years ago. But social action is now a big part of the Party and it’s got a really important role to play.
There are around 150 Conservative-led projects up and down the country. These aren’t token PR efforts - they’re tough, useful and important schemes which make a real difference to communities. We’ve got mentoring, sports, and environmental programmes here in Britain, as well as development projects planned for the summer in Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Srebrenica.
Watch the video from our 2008 social action project in Rwanda
It’s my hope that the social action undertaken by the Conservative Party is the start of something much bigger in terms of changing the way we do politics in this country. It’s about making politics relevant, inspiring new people to get involved, and showing that by working together, we can deliver real change.”
Jon Snow just made an interesting comment on C4, regarding Lt Col Rupert Thorneloe and Trooper Joshua Hammond deaths. He stated that they were travelling in a special vehicle, whose own handbook states that they are not suitable for warfare under any circumstances. Question has to be asked, what was such a senior military official doing in one (that isn’t to play down the deaths of all soliders, who are made to travel exposed in substandard conditions on a daily basis, however you don’t normally expose the “brains” of operations).
228
Surely the evil tories will go even further and ban people from having babies in the first place
236 - Hush, you’re giving away our secret plans for the mass sterilisation of the working class.
234 - Serebrenica?
I hope, for everyones sake, that Douglas Hurd and Maloclm Rifkind are kept well away from that.
I was in Norwich today and can report my first by-election billboard sigting - its for Chloe Smith and the Tories in a leafy suburb.
Bit like Tony Blair being kept away from Basra and Belgrade?
To be honest, I don’t think it’s quite as in the bag for the Conservatives as the odds suggest. The Greens should put in a good performance - I did half wonder if Labour would not contest, so as to give the Greens a chance of winning it.
Srebrenica: the best way to remember the dead is to get the spelling right. Do not make a political point out of it!
Dim and dimmer: dum and dummer! Were is Morus and DC…?
Michael White doesn’t like him up it does he!
Guido’s internet delusions
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/02/guido-fawkes-blogging-politics
I quite liked this claim,
“In fact, Gordon Brown hasn’t addressed more than 10 consecutive words to me for years.”
Arrrh, poor Michael, Gordo obviously thinks your son is more important than you!
225 gaz
You have to ask yourself, why have so many groups who broadly ‘live Tory’ (self-starting entrepreneurs, high regard for family, place great value on education, prefer savings to debt) broadly vote Labour?
It’s because the Conservative party, is still perceived as the party of historical injustice - and rightly so.
I think Cameron’s greatest achievement could be in creating a broad electoral coalition including previously excluded groups.
There isn’t that much Conservative policy which will actively turn off these “live Tory, vote Labour” voters these days.
The only thing I can think of is the reversal of the hunting ban.
But I’ve noticed a worrying trend of Conservative activists going around threatening diversity officers and translation services with an almost vengeful glee.
Scrapping these posts is the right thing to do, but people who have had every chance in life going around chanting about prejudice against “the middle-class middle-aged white male” are an incredible turn-off.
Cameron’s real achievement is making equality sound human by coating it in the language of opportunity rather than making it sound nasty. He clearly understands the innate value of diversity within the Conservative party - he understands that if local Conservative Associations is full of the croquet-playing blue-rinse crowd then a Shaun Bailey will never join.
Cameron is still very weak on so many fronts, but on this one, he has played a blinder.
242 the greens are nowhere in the suburbs Morus - even in the flame of post-expensegate locals they got monstered outside their stronger city wards - where they were also not first overall.
18% tops Green vote, I expect them to get 12%
oracle 235, The troops in AFG are fighting a war with what they have got. Or to put it more accurately what they have been provided with, and what they have been provided with is not up to the job. Can you for one second imagine Montgomery approaching the treasury for cash prior to the D-Day landings to buy equipment being treated in the way the Defence Chiefs currently are. If politicians are prepared to gain brownie points for deploying troops into harms way, they must be prepared to take the downside which is finding the funding to do it properly. Sadly Brown as Chancellor and PM has done the former not the latter. He should hang his head in shame, fighting two wars (now one) with the minimum funding and very little overt support from him. The troops in AFG are known by the Americans as the borrowers because they are constantly required to borrow equipment, that has a demoralising effect on the troops and is a national embarrassment.
243 - Were is Morus and DC…?
Where you making a point about typo’s?
242 and if Labour had not run, Gibson would have which would have probably produced a higher % than Euro pick #7 Ostrowski
Everyone is bored with the whole expenses saga.
I can’t remember who in the cabinet and shadow cabinet are supposed to have done anything wrong.
Tim keeps banging on about Osborne, but he’s supposed to be “relaxed” about the party political charges against him. Anyone else?
I would wager that the average Joe in the street just thinks all MPs are shysters, regardless of colour or rank.
Obviously if all the wrong-doers in the cabinet were ceremoniously thrown out then Cameron would then have a bit of a problem - but only if the media actually highlighted it in any prominent way, of which i’m doubtful.
And equally obviously, if Cameron threw out of few in the shadow cabinet who are supposed to have wronged in some way then Brown would be on the back foot.
But then being as though neither leader is going to take such action, and any new Labour leader wouldn’t have anyone to replace the miscreants with, it’s not really going to be an issue.
p.s. when was the last time a Tory did a guest article?
248 its typos tim
(or is that typoes!)
247
Which makes the position of defence in this poll disappointing
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3739493/the-candidates-for-cuts.thtml
tim, were you making a point about grammar?
236. Yeah, the Viking - armoured, except underneath. Its inadequacies were first pointed out in 2007 and there might be a replacement (the Warthog) next year, which is a bit late for too many squaddies.
First it was snatch-landrovers, now this Viling crap, bastard politicians, skimping on life-saving kit.
Tell you what, let’s replace all official government limos with open golf-buggies. That’d make ‘em flinch.
Here are the main dedicated Norwich North resources I’ve found
Local paper coverage
http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/elections/
Twitter coverage
http://search.twitter.com/search?q=norwich+north
Vote 2007 coverage
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=3211.0
Comment on Guido that amused me:
Game, set and fu*k up to Gordon @ July 3, 2009 at 6:57 pm says:
“I suppose Gordon Brown will be spinning it as a 0% win for Murray!”
Good article, though I ultimately disagree. My sense is that the public has now decisively turned against Labour. If Labour purged its troughers and replaced them with clean (but second rate) ministers, the public would use their mediocrity as their reason to vote against it. Unfair, perhaps, but that is my strong suspicion. Should Labour try it? That depends whether it thinks that it can oust Gordon Brown without much bloodshed. Since I am very doubtful of that, my own view is that it would now be better sitting tight and taking its medicine - sooner rather than later if it wants to retain a seat tally that will enable it to launch a credible campaign at the election after next.
As others have commmented, if tim always wrote like this, he would always be a pleasure to read, instead of 25% of the time. It beats the life out of me why someone who is obviously pretty intelligent should spend so much time indulging in verbal masturbation rather than making the careful and deep points that he is so obviously capable of when he chooses to.
254
Unarmed populace.
Apology for typo MasterAuthor.
258. You’re never unarmed when there’s half house-bricks around.
257 completely agree - Labour are a busted flush I think. I was in conversation last night (this is a total anecdote of course) - a couple of real die hard Labourites spoke with more visceral hatred of what Labour are than I thought possible.
Its grim out there for Labour, really grim
They will get obliterated in Norwich North
Coffee Republic set for administration
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article6632780.ece
Excellent if short piece. However it is better short than partisan - I don’t think a disclaimer is necessary really.
I agree with the comments as a whole - a Johnson clean skin would be a problem for the tories. However I actually think we have already seen all the negative impact we will see for the tories, and i think it is down to where the parties draw the support.
Labour supporters will tend to be from lower socio economic groups, who will have a binary reaction i.e. we dont have money - those who do are bad / evil / heartless/ it’s not fair on us. They will hate all politicians as much after this, but will have disproportionaely voted Labour previously, so they should fare worse.
Secondly you have the Guardianista types who are better off but feel they have sort of moral mission in life and expect their politicans to do the same. Not sure of the effect on this group. I expect some will be able to rationalise it away like their place in provence (symbolic). However some will be looking towards Greens / maybe LDs
I think a lot of tory supporters will be able to understand that if the MPs stuck to the rules , even if the rules werent particularly good, then there is not too much to hold people over.
262 - Are they going to rebrand as Coffee Monarchy?
264 - SO WEAK!
Hardly the right material for a JFK assassination afficianado
(It was LHO from the Texas Book Depository with a half-brick wot dun it! - Nah. Doesn’t sound right)
266
how did Afficionado acquire an ‘a’?
********
256 - MM, If you enjoyed the comments on Guido’s blog, read those on Michael White’s bitch fest, link provided by Oracle @ 144.
I really hope Morris Dancer has left room for the pompous toad in his intergalactic space canon.
267 - How did it acquire two “f”s?
268 - I think you mean 244, not 144.
Not the piece I was expecting tim, but well done for keeping your word.
270, Oops, thanks for the link and the correction.
257 - I can change I know i can.
Is anyone watching this programme on private number plate owners on Channel4?
Apparently the owner of N1GEL has an inferority complex which his wife traces back to Boarding School.
How much for G1DE0N?
Sorry Antifrank, I’ll give it up tomorrow.
266. Oh, I don’t know…. “The victim was felled by a volley of 4 inch calibre halves of wire-cut facing bricks that are believed to have fallen off the back of a lorry somewhere in Brixton….”
Lawyers challenge Biggs decision
Lawyers for Great Train robber Ronnie Biggs have claimed Justice Secretary Jack Straw acted outside his powers in denying the 79-year-old parole.
Biggs’s solicitor said laws the minister relied on when making Tuesday’s decision were invalid.
The lawyers said one had been repealed and the other was overruled by the House of Lords in 2002.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/8133812.stm
Has Straw been given duff info on his powers and made a boo boo? Or is this just a lawyer trying to cause trouble?
In the Paddy Power dole derby, Angela Merkel has to be value at 7/1. She is facing re-election this autumn and is a lousy campaigner.
269
Looks like I’m in a minority again
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/afficionado
273 - You’ll grow hairs on your palms, you know.
Oracle, Don and B - you need to be careful about being simplistic with military equipment. There is no panacea for military vehicle design and traditionally the greatest trade-off is mobility versus protection. Viking was designed to be flexible and provide mobility with limited ballistic and indirect fire protection and it can travel on terrain and in conditions that other vehicles simply cannot. If you replace Viking with another vehicle variant with greater protection you lose that mobility and flexibility and these can be critical factors in battle. There will always be compromises in military equipment but to say that it is wrong vehicle is to not understand fully why it was procurred and the roles in which it is being used.
276 antifrank
Angela Merkel is the only thing keeping the CDU afloat! If I remember right her personal ratings are far higher than those for her party.
273 Hey Tim! Good article! More please.
O/T
Anyone else notice how many media interviews the cabinet have done recently? Darling was in the Independent today.
I’m sure there have been at least two a week for the past three weeks, with Brown also giving one to each major newspaper.
#279, by c July 3rd, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Great post, but this is a betting site. Accurate information based upon requirements tighten odds, so give the game away.
But nice to see a fellow-traveller though!
[PS: beware the likes of Coldstone!
]
279, c, thanks for the tips on Military vehicles and their associated usage. However having spent a great deal of time riding in various military vehicles I am quite confident that I know what I am talking about. I don’t really need you to state the bleeding obvious.
“There will always be compromises in military equipment but to say that it is wrong vehicle is to not understand fully why it was procurred and the roles in which it is being used.”
Perhaps you could usefully explain to the adoring masses why this vehicle was originally procured for the Royal Marines.
280. wibbler
Does Gordon Brown have a higher rating than Labour these days?
280 - I’m expecting Angela Merkel to retain her job. But unless any of the others in the dole derby is ousted before the end of September (which at face value looks unlikely), you are effectively getting 7/1 against her losing her job after the federal election. I like those odds.
282 - You might not have noticed, but Gordo is having another relaunch, hence the article overload.
279. Suggest you read the whole sorry saga on the ‘Defence of the Realm’ blog. It’s been writing about it for over a year, and the snatch-landrovers before that.
But one thing’s for sure, you don’t use vehicles vulnerable to roadside devices in a theatre where most casualties have been suffered from exactly those devices.
And when the preference is to re-vamp the MoD offices for hundreds of millions rather than provide decent kit for forces that’ve been sent out there, then the term ‘hypocritical scum’ springs to mind.
287 (cont) Sorry if that post sounded rude, it wasn’t meant to be. I was going to poke fun at how poorly the relaunch seems to have gone, and how little positive media coverage it has got, but didn’t really come out like that.
Gordo “meet the people” tour seems to have got near zero mainstream publicity, other than the BBC propaganda piece and the Speccy video this morning.
c, come on, there should be no need to google an answer, you are obviously some sort of expert who has an in-depth understanding of the Viking vehicle.
284 Don: The answer was to procure a vehicle which could get the Royal Marines into theatre by any means while having an effective mix of strategic, operational and tactical mobility, plus adequate capacity, protection and flexibility. It had to be able to cope with any terrain.
I was an officer in the Royal Marines for 16 years.
Has anybody else seen the OK Magazine picture of Michael Jackson dead?
#284, by don(the other one) July 3rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm
John Reid. ‘Nuff said…!
292 No, but based on that teaser, I’ve now seen Jack Tweed’s attempt to resuscitate his bank account
http://www.ok.co.uk/newsroundup/view/11563/Jack-tells-of-his-worries/
I guessing but I think if Lt Colonel Rupert Thorneloe was the sort of leader that they say he was. He would have said that if the equipment my guy use is good enough for them it’s good enough for me.
c, not seeing the bit in there were it says to be used as a logistics vehicle in a high mine threat environment.
There are many vehicles that are much better suited to that role and to be fair some are finally coming on line. But and it is a big but the troops have been in theatre for years and still waiting for the new vehicles to get through the procurement and deployment phase. The Viking is an OK vehicle for what it was designed for, which is not what it is being used for at the moment. As for this piece of flagrant propaganda from the MOD they should really know better.
http://tinyurl.com/km9hh9
292 – MD, this is an MJ free site OK.
Any polls due tonight?
Previous thread, 17. Patrick wrote:
tim, roger, john L, wage slave, all you lefties. Read this about your heroes:
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13940919
…and then STFU. Thanks.
When you wrote “john L”, did you mean me? If so, it certainly looks interesting and I will try to get hold of a copy. I’m not sure, though, whether you want to convert me or shut me up. Or both?
18. Marquee Mark quoted:
“Communism’s first big advantage was that it played on two human appetites—the noble desire for justice and the baser hunger for vengeance. Mr Brown, emeritus professor of politics at Oxford University…”
Any attraction I may have had towards Marxism has never been based on or motivated by any desire for “vengeance” (whatever that may mean). I can’t speak for others.
————-
Me wrote Gordon’s Redwood moment
This is just hilarious.
Our dear Prime Minister looks at his most awkward as he’s invited to sing Old MacDonald Had A Farm with some toddlers.”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/07/gordons-redwood-moment.html
There is a crucial difference. John Redwood’s Redwood moment was when he found himself unable to sing the Welsh National anthem, and foolishly wobbled his head about as a substitute for singing the words instead of standing still and upright. It lasted perhaps 10 or 20 seconds. Gordon Brown’s Redwood moment, on the other hand, started in June 2007 and is still continuing.
Marquee Mark Redwood had a sort of excuse - he was confronted with a foreign language.
Welsh is not a foreign language, but the point is otherwise valid.
—————————–
tim I wonder what % of Nick Griffin is Sub Saharan African?
100%, if you go back far enough. It’s odd that the BNP’s idea of national/racial identity is based on 1000 years ago (white) and not 100 years or 20 years (mixed) or 100,000 years ago (black).
To prevent a pissing contest on military vehicles I will leave my part of the conversation with one question, it’s multiple choice.
In Afghanistan do we have
a, Too many heavy lift helicopters
b, Just enough which means we are stretched but not over stretched
c, Nowhere near enough which results in inappropriate vehicles being used to conduct logistics tasks
d, None of the above
OT The Mail really do have some very unusual stories
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197256/Blind-man-sees-wife-time-having-TOOTH-implanted-eye.html
(sorry if this appears twice, having probs)
To prevent a p1ssing contest on military vehicles I will leave my part of the conversation with one question, it’s multiple choice.
In Afghanistan do we have
a, Too many heavy lift helicopters
b, Just enough which means we are stretched but not over stretched
c, Nowhere near enough which results in inappropriate vehicles being used to conduct logistics tasks
d, None of the above
“If however there is a change of leadership within the Labour Party and Alan Johnson were to become Leader I think there is a chance that Cameron has made a serious miscalculation.”
Yes, and if I win a Euro millions lottery rollover, I won’t have to go to work again.
299
Of course Redwood could have learnt some Welsh, but that would have meant him actually staying in the place: which he didn’t! not one single night!
299. JohnLoony
“singing the words instead of standing still and upright. It lasted perhaps 10 or 20 seconds. Gordon Brown’s Redwood moment, on the other hand, started in June 2007 and is still continuing”
302 and then I’d propose to you on February 29th
38. That “Peccavi” story is an urban myth, invented decades after the event by a 15-year-old schoolgirl.
“Building Britain’s Future: Another decade of Labour?”
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/07/building-britains-future-another-decade-of-labour/
303. Why should he learn welsh? The overwhelming majority of people in wales do not speak welsh as their first language, with a large chunk not possessing any working knowledge of welsh.
#301, by don(the other one) July 3rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Try discussing your questions here. It’s more informative for that kind of stuff.
See you there soon!
O/T. Very nice! I managed to buy an unread F/F 1st/1st 4 months ago for £62.
Prices seem to have risen somewhat.
http://www.abebooks.co.uk/servlet/SearchResults?an=stieg+larsson&bi=h&bx=off&ds=30&fe=on&pn=maclehose&sortby=3&sts=t&tn=the+girl+with+the+dragon+tattoo&x=116&y=18
307 - The following I find incredibly worrying “aspiration” for the Labour future,
“2020: 90 per cent of children leave primary school having mastered the basics in English and Maths”
Thus, 10% of children, in mainstream education, leaving primary school at 11, will not be able to read and write properly.
311 - A good buy on your part, but a rubbish book.
37. vacuum continuum sovereignty equiangular corps
JL, Welsh was very obviously foreign to Redwood!
Palin ‘rules out Alaska re-run’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/8133964.stm
313. Depends on your tastes, I reckon. I enjoyed it, and the second vol even more. Third and final vol due October.
Got quite a few collectible books, they’ll come in handy when the old-age pension becomes worthless.
Welsh is a foreign language. Wales is a seperate country!
Palin is going to resign as Alaska Governor
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/03/politics/main5131961.shtml
How about a regular guest post on a Saturday morning?
I’d be interested in hearing the thoughts of posters from all sides of the political spectrum.
On multilingual puns, I like the one in Philip José Farmer’s The Fabulous Riverboat. King John and Samuel Clemens share power in a country named Parolando, the Esperanto for shared land. Samuel Clemens is happy because it can also be translated as “Twainland”.
317 - Sorry, that was rude of me. Chacun a son gout.
312 Agree. Any Govt. should hang its head in shame if that is its “aspiration”. It knows it won’t meet even that low target.
I want to hear IDS pledge to raise that number.
Fluffy - thanks!
Don - Your overall premise isn’t in dispute. I was just trying to make a more nuanced point that you may or may not chose to accept. Viking does, however, have a command variant.
299. Nick Griffin and the *present* occupiers of sub Saharan africa share a common ancestor from eastern Africa (as current thinking goes).
The nature of the skin colour of such early humans is not as clear thinking as you might think, our hairy earlier cousins have in many cases quite light coloured skin under their hair, the movement towards darker skin was a development due to movement from the forested areas to Savannaha, and the shedding of all over hair.
But again this is all up for debate because it is not possible to determine from bones the colour of someones skin.
316. Oracle I like Sarah Palin!
Maybe i dont agree with all of her policy prenouncements but she is a pretty dynamic politician IMO!
Without her on the ticket i think McCain would have done a lot worse than the circa 47% the GOP achieved! Politics over there is very different to here but if i lived over there i would be a Republican i think! Obama is a good politician but i dont agree with some of his remedies for the economy - they will fail!
American health care is still a problem and i dont believe even Obamas proposals will help that much.
318. It wishes! Its a principality, nothing more, nothing less.
322. Good heavens! No need to apologise! As an avid collector of SF I’m used to all sorts of mutterings regarding sanity, taste and prolonged adolescence. But then I check the current values and smile quietly.
c, no worries, it is a subject that winds me up for similar reasons that it probably winds you up. As I say no intention to get into a p1ssing contest, all opinions equally valid and all that.
Crikey i just flicked through the channels and it is the first time I noticed Big Brother was on this year!
Big Brother - Kind of sums Labour up well: Talentless* losers in a 24 hour/ 7 day a week surveliance society!
*I exclude Nick Palmer from that as he is intellegent!
234. I think Labour will be a clear second place, because
(a) Lib Dem will be fourth
(b) Green will be third
(c) but Lib Dem will be an annoyingly substantial number and won’t be squeezed by the Greens to a trivial amount.
309. I have known the Welsh national anthem since before I was a teenager. Why? Because I am interested in languages generally. John Redwood should have (a) learnt the Welsh national anthem anyway, as part of his job, just in case (b) or realised that he shouldn’t have wobbled his head around in such a clumsy way, but (c) it’s his fault anyway for not being interested in languages anyway.
Crikey just seen this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5718984/Staff-strip-naked-to-improve-morale.html
The last office i worked in was full with woman and i got a hard on when they were clothed!
Odds on the reason Palin Resigned.
2/1 Personal or Financial scandal about to break.
2/1 Multi Million Dollar chat show opportuniy beckons
3/1 To run for President against the Liberal Elite Media.
5/1 God told her to.
Evening all. Haven’t posted in a while, couldn’t even lurk as have been that busy. Not even sure now if I’m back to normal. Thought I’d drop in as I had some time this evening.
Almost on topic, what are the odds that Osborne comes out of the latest investigation in a stronger position than before?
The complaint is not about CGT, or the same sort of flipping that has doomed others, but around whether his unique mortgage arrangements represent value for taxpayer money.
I wonder if he can produce a set of figures that show doing it this way round cost the taxpayer less than just taking out 2 mortgages…
This would have some betting implications if it came to pass, as he would then be bulletproof and nailed on CoE I reckon.
Tennis: if I don’t have a strong preference for one player over the other, I find that I tend to be supporting whoever is in the lead - my main concern is to get it over with rather than dragging on for hours. Today I realised that I wasn’t too bothered about Andy Murray winning, so I cheered for Roddick when he was ahead.
333 - You’ve missed of the most obvious one.
To contest one of Alaska’s senate seats.
So that’s why you got expelled from the Conservative Party, Martin!
335. The whole investigation is Labour inspired - I hope Osborne does come out stronger along the lines you say.
Shame the Tory chairman in relevant seats did not take Hoon, Darling et al to be investigated as well. Maybe something worth doing a month before the election!
The reason why the Conservatives have less to lose from the expenses “scandal” is simple.
The expenses scandal is not going to impact on parties, it is going to impact on individuals. By and large, where Conservative MPs are defending dodgy expenses claims they will be saved by large national swings in their favour (certainly where their main opposition is Labour).
Whereas Labour MPs in trouble will find their problems coming on top of a national swing against them.
332 - Tip for you, place the sexual harrasment forms in the bottom drawer of the filing cabinet. So when she goes to get the form, she has to bend over and you get a cracking view of her arse.
338. Sadly not the reason! I did not get a hard on with in that office!
It was another office!
Getting a Hard on at work can be difficult though as it is hard to disguise!
315. Yes - his first language was Vulcan
333. tim back to his usual slimy self.
Forget the thread. It’s dead.
337. If Palin gets in the Senate, she will be president within twelve years…
341. The worst thing that I did in an office was “look for the nipple” when this woman used to delibrately wear low cut tops and bend down so i would look at her assets! On one occasion i saw everything and she gave me a filthy look! Woman are strange! I worked at another place and this 19 year old did similar in the lunch hour - she was not my type of girl but i still got a hard on and had to stay seated until they had gone and it went away!
341 Butt by name and butt by nature!
343 - No, as any Trek fan can tell you, John Redwood is a Romulan.
346 - Martin, shocking, shocking, shocking. Colour me shocked.
346 I once worked with chap who used to snuggle up to petrol pump hoses when filling up his car.
Guaranteed stiffy according to him.
Is that too much information?
347 - Yup, that’s me down to a tee.
334, nice to see you on. Did you acquire a job? (Apologies if I’m misremembering, Morris Dancer is notorious for his absent-mindedness).
April 1st anyone?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5733054/Prisoners-on-run-cannot-be-named-due-to-privacy-rights.html
I go away for a bit and come back into a ‘how to do sexual harrassment’ self help seminar. PB.com does weird threads in ways you can’t often imagine.
My claim to shame, actually i have two, about my humour at work.
In a questionnaire issued to all staff, one of the questions asked was
“Do you have a problem with a woman in a position of authority?”
My reply “I’ve never had a problem with a woman in any position”
319. I have just had a bizarre idea. Perhaps Palin no longer being governor - and living in the real world for a year or three - will make her normal, like Portillo was after no longer being an MP. Maybe she will become moderate and lefty and fluffy and secular, and will sweep to victory when Obama gets blamed for the recession?
334 Greetings, James.
Perhaps you would like to update us as on your views of the UK economy?
Having been away at a disaster of a Job Centre plus for a week. It looks as if PB has changed whilst I was away!
Any polls tonight?
350. Like the seats over the bus rear wheels!
In hot weater when i dont where a coat or jacket i always avoided the wheel seats!
Though the *Shudders* when a Bus is waiting can set it off as well! Its a nasty business on public transport!
352 - No the job horizon remains stubbornly free of jobs. Just a few bits of bad news and some family stuff, and a garden full of triffids to deal with.
355. If I had that questionnaire, I would be confused and say it depends who the woman is…
357 - Screwed. Royally.
361, oh, sorry to hear that.
But don’t worry, Gordon says 2.25m people leave unemployment every month!
And if he’s wrong your JSA rises by as much as 0%!
364 - Ha, I still don’t get JSA as the DWP are a bunch of lobotomised morons, I have been arguing for 4 months about it and I suspect I will get a job sooner. I have a sneaking suspicion there is a heavy does of figure manipulation going on.
355. habib butt
354. James Burdett
I have never been on a sexual harrasement charge at work. The woman i was on about used to want me to look! If i had walked around with my cock hanging out i am sure she would have looked!
366
Martin is King Dong and I claim my £5
365, to be fair if you can get to a Job Centre you can either afford a taxi, bus fare or petrol, so you don’t need JSA. It’s another brilliant means test: only those who don’t go to a Job Centre can claim JSA. 100% efficiency under Labour!
Evening all
As I walked home tonight, I saw grown men and women in tears, trying to console each other, trying to explain to children why we wouldn’t have anything to cheer on Sunday - the sadness, the grief.
And I did over £150 at Sandown this afternoon so I couldn’t give a Gordon Brown relaunch what happened to Andy Murray !!
Re: 334 - Nice to see you back, James.
Re: 355 - my only claim on this was when I was asked about a friend who was seeking employment at the company where I was working:
“Does Your Friend Drink Regularly or to Excess ?”
To which I replied
“No, my friend drinks regularly AND to excess”.
I’ll get my shirt - no I won’t, I lost it at Esher
365. James Burdett Have you come across the recruitment agencies advertising bullshit jobs yet (They dont exsist)?
I have even applied to major banks that advertise but dont actually have any jobs!
It is Gordon Browns fault!
After six months you will be offered the useless employment subsidy voucher, worth £1K. The point with that is i cannot really see a major employer taking someone on that basis! I feel for you a similar situation to me!
368 - So have any new people been added to the ammunition list whilst I’ve been away?
363 “Screwed. Royally.”
No chance of a job advising this Govt. then - the truth isn’t required!
on the subject of inappropriate sexual activity at work, I wonder how many she got back? (no overt sexual content in the link)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1197311/Teacher-battles-save-job–sending-students-home-DVD-sex-tape.html
370 - Nope one of my agencies went bust though which was confidence inspiring. I’m now with about 5 more. There are signs that some companies over-pared staff and that there is some recruiting going on. Lloyds-HBOS seem to be taking the route of annoying enough staff that they leave then fail to replace so that they don’t have the headline thousands of redundancies. Lots of intra-area staff transfers going on.
Would anyone like to have a go at unscramblin Palins word salad?
Melvin Baker - AHN Reporter
Wasilla, AK (AHN) - Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. John McCain’s running mate in the 2008 presidential election, announced Friday that she is stepping down.
Speaking at her lakeside home, Palin said she would resign by the end of the month. Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will fill her unexpired term.
Without being specific about her plans, Palin said she wanted to effect change “outside the government, on another scale.”
“My choice is to take a stand and effect change and not just watch us hit our head against a wall and waste valuable state time and dollars go down the drain in this new political environment. Rather, we know we can effect positive change outside the government at this moment in time and actually make a difference for our priorities for Alaskans and for Americans.”
Using a basketball analogy, Palin alluded to herself as a point guard, saying, “you are na?ve if you don’t see a full court press from the national level, picking away right now.”
She said her decision “comes after much prayer and consideration.” The governor, who has four children with husband Todd, said she polled her children and gotten “four yeses and a hell yeah.”
I love my job and I love Alaska. It hurts to makes this choice, but I’m doing what’s best for Alaska,” she said.
“I’m’ taking my fight for what’s right for Alaska in a new direction,” she said.
John Redwood was the Secretary of State for Wales - he ought to have been familiar with the National Anthem. William Hague held the post and learned the anthem. I believe he got a wife in to bargain as well.
371, don’t think so. I melted slightly in the heat though, and haven’t slept properly (even for my usual insomniac self) for days.
372 - My only advice to this shambles would be “Go, go quickly, go now”.
Just sent you an email Morus.
376- Yeah but a welsh wife.
377 - Yeah I was gardening in the heat of the day and was overcome with heatstroke. Stupid me.
374. IIRC, you live “Near London”
If you had not already seen it:
http://www.conservatives.com/Get_involved/Jobs/Media_Team_Press_Officer.aspx
381, at least the humidity’s starting to go. My fingers have been aching the last few days, as well as being unable to sleep.
Did Mrs Burdett nurse you back to health?
382 - Thanks Martin!
“Without being specific about her plans, Palin said she wanted to effect change “outside the government, on another scale.”
Going back into broadcasting? A nightly prime-time prog rubbishing Washington would upset the Dems.
376 And when asked to name an Old McDonald song farm animal - Gordon chose a horse.
Since when did we farm horses?
Sure we turn them into dog food and glue at the end of their natural - but FARM animals?
383 - Mother Burdett did after ranting at me for overdoing it!!
377 - I thought we had added Rowan Williams to the list the other day?
386, they are used on farms though.
At least he didn’t do a George W and try to milk one.
383 - If there’s a Mrs Burdett suddenly on the scene it’s a safe seat he’s being interviewed for, not some press officer job.
387, not very sympathetic.
Oh, whilst you were aware I’ve embarked upon a new project: the genetic engineering of enormo-haddock!
388. Hmm. Not sure if he got added… oh yes. Here are the latest additions:
Graham Norton
Rowan Williams
Sam Delaney
Sarkozy
Caroline Lucas
Jon Sopel
386 - It’s in the song!! I remember singing it at the Mum’s and Toddlers group I attended more than a quarter of a century ago. Plus in the days before the internal combustion engine I imagine all farms and farmers had horses.
389 I do love your satire Mr Dancer!
Farmers use horses like miners use pit ponies
390 - And how I didn’t miss you.
386 - I don’t know, perhaps he thinks Mandelson cuts a Napoleonic figure.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3661/3520849349_6e562b6818.jpg
375. What a shame, the end of an era. I used to enjoy this
http://www.palinaspresident.us/
376. I am sure John Redwood knows God Save the Queen.
394 Is it PB etiquette for article authors to post on their articles?
397 - The Sex Pistols version?
398 - Mike does it all the time.
If Palin were a rational politician I would expect a mega-scandal to erupt in the next few days. Everyone would read the runes if she didn’t run again, but actively resigning suggests something is badly wrong.
However, as she is just about the only politician to give Gordon Brown a run for his money when it comes to sheer self-delusion, she might actually think that wimping out on her duties to Alaska is a sensible first step to run for President.
396. I like Palin! I think she is alright!
Of course if i worked in an office with her i would get a hard on but there we go!
393, I am shocked you do not take me seriously. After commencing my late night morris dancing session I shall attack you with my enormous man cannon!
402 - Martin, from your recent posts, if you worked in an office with Glenys Kinnock and Ann Widdecombe, you’re one eyed hooligan would get excited.
you’re = your
401. Wibbler - I doubt she will be at the centre od a sex scandal as her religion does not int include contraception.
I think she will be running for President, some or even many think she may be a whacko but in the states her appeal is probably to about 50% of the country!
400 Bugger.
So that means even if tim penned every PB article from now on, we’d still endure Latvian Waffen SS etc posts?
407 - I think no matter what, we’d have to endure Latvian Waffen SS posts.
404. habib butt
I would not rule it out but i think there age and attractiveness to me would be demished enough for me to be alright!
407. Doesn’t need Latvians, Bernie Ecclestone will do - he’s flipped, gone dolally.
Is this why he gave £1m to Toni?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/formula_1/article6633340.ece
I was under the impression that the Conservative Party had quite enough press and media oficers, Martin. And that most of them spend all their time posting on here.
So perhaps there is room for one more, James… Good luck with it.
411 - Hold on, I am not even applying for it.
410 - Without wanting to get Max Mosely’s lawyers excited, perhaps Bernie has been reading some of Oswald Mosely’s speeches and articles
Djn’t say, Martin, that you are diminishing in terms of age and attractiveness…. At the very least, don’t admit it….
411. Pat Ryan - I noticed some more jobs at CCHQ!
Sadly I dont think CCHQ is a place where my application would go down well for a job working there!
So i hope James goes for one of the Jobs as he has solid credentials and indeed experience as a Cllr IIRC!
I think most who post on PB - understand how the media works and how to manipulate/make the best of it.
Why not, James? You could carry on posting here as usual, and the Conservative Party would pay you for it!
Go on! You know you want to!
Holy crap
Does anyone understand anything Palin is saying in her resignation statement?
http://community.adn.com/adn/node/142175
It’s got even more gobbledegook than her Couric interview.
I presume this has been posted before, but the Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator gives the following results.
http://politsk.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah_13.html
What would your name be if Sarah Palin was your mother?
Mike Smithson = Quarter Granite Palin
Habib Butt = Shove Maggot Palin
Sean Thomas = Seagull Junker Palin
Gordon Brown = Rope Hoover Palin.
David Cameron = Seam Maruader Palin.
And so on.
414. Pat Ryan
No i meant it the other way! They are not as attractive as they once may have been to me (Or anyone else)!
To be fare i think i could manage a hard on for both of them! But Kinnocks spoils would be difficult for anyone to swallow!
Well, Martin, those Conservatives who post on PBC certainly know how to manipulate the media. And presumbably the rest are learning fast….
I agree with you though. James should go for it.
On your bike, Young James!
Hunky Dunky maybe in more trouble,
MPs’ expenses: Alan Duncan claimed £63,000 in mortgage ‘flip’
421 (cont) The link got caught in the spam filter, but I would hope everybody knows where to go to find it.
418. Tim,
Do you want to apoligise on behalf of the Labour party for jinxing Andy Murray?
Gordon Brown wanted to take the credit for a potential wimbledon win and jinxed Murray in the Semi-finals.
416, 420 - I know how these things work, I’d have a higher chance of being canonised than I have of getting that sort of job.
In the eye of the beholder, Martin…
421 Oracle
He seems to have done exactly the same as Osborne…
And from the same publication as Hunky Dunky expenses,
Prisoners on run cannot be named ‘due to privacy rights’
Prisoners on the run from Holleseley Bay prison cannot be identified because it would breach their rights to privacy, the Ministry of Justice has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5733054/Prisoners-on-run-cannot-be-named-due-to-privacy-rights.html
Hmmm, well thats Obama’s second term assured.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/03/sarah-palin-resigns-alaska-governor
421 - But the Scrutiny Panel cleared him.
Car bail-out ahoy,
In return for commitment on jobs it is believed Magna wants up to £350 million of the British taxpayer funds.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article6630079.ece
Is no-one interested in the link at 410?
Bernie Ecclestone admires Hitler because he got things done.
424. James Burdett,
Well if you dont have a go - you will never know! I worked at CCO, even though it was not the right job for me - i think you would be safe! More than likely based in the “war room”! I once worked in the war room for a day and my memory was of Tory totty that i imagined with Tory rossets on her nipples etc!
I still wonder if she had the Tory tassles to this day!
If you are up for something better - good luck!
421 - Duncan speaks out against ‘gay smear’ and this turns up in a paper. The same with Osbourne and the investigation.
It this the new Labour strategy?
Martin, have you been on the jungle juice tonight?
432 - I’ve tried before, and frankly I’m not sure I could keep my thoughts to myself at times.
434.
Why else would i talk about hardons! 
433 - Looks like it, I think it boils down to ‘if you throw enough mud sooner or later you will get lucky and some will stick’. It is a thoroughly disreputable way to carry on, and shows the depths they will sink to. I am a normally fair minded person but if they want to play nasty then I want them buried, preferably alive.
This is Duncan’s response,
“For all the time Alan has been a Member of Parliament his London home has been at the same address and has been his main home both for tax purposes and parliamentary purposes.
“Similarly, his constituency home has been at the same address and has been his second home for both tax purposes and parliamentary purposes.
“The mortgage was taken out for the original purchase of his constituency home. This loan was secured at that time against his London home, even though it was used to purchase the constituency home.
“When he renewed his mortgage in early 2004, he realigned the security given to the bank with the property to which the loan directly related.
“The mortgage has always been in respect of the constituency property and any claim made against it in allowances has been entirely and exclusively for that purpose.”
433
Yeah! I’m sure the Telegraph is in the pay of the Labour Party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5736938/MPs-expenses-Alan-Duncan-claimed-63000-in-mortgage-flip.html
Bye Bye Diddyman, Bye Bye.
438 - You accidentally missed a bit.
Mr Duncan declined to say how much he paid for the Rutland property in 1992 and whether this had been less than the £271,000 mortgage he subsequently took out in 2004.
418 And you would be Jeep Pike Palin.
437. James Burdett
This is where the Tories need to throw it back!
I think Ben Brogans post yesterday about the Conservatives making complaints against Labour MP’s sounds like a feed direct from the bunker. CCHQ should not get drawn into this.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100001947/the-tories-should-file-their-own-complaints
434 Martin, have you tried applying for a job with Jobcentre Plus? It’s a growth industry and they’ll take almost anyone. I have recently taken their shilling and I believe so has Icarus. It’s not too much like hard work either, although it doesn’t pay very well I am currently doing less work per taxpayers’ pound than I did in my last one. Mind you they are the most incompetent employers I have met in a long time.
For any English person confronted with having to sing the Welsh National Anthem, try this phonetic version:
My hen laid a haddock, one hand oiled a flea,
Glad farts and centurions threw dogs in the sea,
I could stew a hare here and brandish Dan’s flan,
Don’s ruddy bog’s blocked up with sand.
Dad ! Dad! Why don’t you oil Auntie Glad ?
Can whores appear in beer bottle pies,
O butter the hens as they fly !
441 - I disagree I think we should leave them out on that limb all by themselves. It is very destructive politics, divisive and I think politics should be about high ideals not low intimation.
Oh look who is going to be lead story in the Daily Rant tomorrow,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197385/Sarah-Browns-tears-Gary-McKinnon.html
Lib Dems playing the Daves Mates card.
re Osborne
Lord Oakeshott, the Liberal Democrat peer, said: “It is now crystal clear David Cameron cracks down on ordinary Tory MPs and smiles sweetly at the in-crowd in the shadow cabinet.”
How 1970’s, the In Crowd.
442. Maggie Thatcher Fan - What so Labour and LD make complaints about the Tories but the Tories sit on their hands? Take the Rap and more than likely lose seats to the pointless LDs who after all have expense problems and the £2.4 Million Michael Brown donation problem!
Dont be silly!
Labour have about 350 MPs if they want to make the election about expenses they will fail massively! Even the pious LD have quite a few problems!
Crikey i really do worry about the Tories at time - You need to wrestle power from Labour not expect it to land in your lap!
447. Tim - A vote for LD is a vote for Labour! Or vice versa!
443. Phil C
Yes about two months ago! They did not shortlist me but have stupid F*cking w@nkers who have neither my qualifications or experience doing the job as new recruits! Nor my communication skills!
Yes, that’s a very remarkable speech by Palin. It shows a continuing major difference in US and UK political cultures, as in Britain frankly she’d be assumed to be drunk but there’s definitely an audience for that sort of thing frank naivete in the US. I don’t necessarily mean that criticially - we are a bit too cynical and worldly-wise fort our own good. But I’d think that the Palin piece would be OTT for *most* Americans too. What is S&S’s take on it?
450 Sorry mate, what can I say? It would have given you something to rant about though.
“Express proprietor, Richard Desmond, in libel action against journalist
Richard Desmond, the owner of the Daily and Sunday Express,will become the first newspaper proprietor to take the stand in the High Court since Robert Maxwell, when he launches his libel action against the investigative journalist Tom Bower on Monday.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article6633727.ece
447, we’ve got to admire Nick Clegg’s consistency regarding his party. Whether an offence is big or small and regardless of how close or distant the offender is to Clegg, the matter has been ignored.
444. LOL!
Actually, I like the English translation of the Welsh national anthem, particularly the last few lines….
“My country tho’ crushed by a hostile array,
The language of Cambria lives out to this day;
The muse has eluded the traitors’ foul knives,
The harp of my country survives.”
It reminds me just how much England is a nation of immigrants. Mainly Northern European. I wonder if Nick Griffin is aware of his own countries’ history?
Dirty Desmond is indirectly responsible for my favourite ever Tony Blair moment.
When Paxo listed all the “niche” mags Desmond published to Tony Blair, and asked him if he was happy to receive money from the publisher of such “self-help” magazines.
454: To be fair, thats most people attitude to every regarding the Lib Dems…
455. What was Tone’s response
458 I expect he lied.
Don’t know if someone posted:
“MPs’ expenses: Alan Duncan claimed £63,000 in mortgage ‘flip’”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5736938/MPs-expenses-Alan-Duncan-claimed-63000-in-mortgage-flip.html
460 - Tone, surely not, he was a straight kinda of guy you know!
“MPs’ expenses: Alan Duncan claimed £63,000 in mOrtgage ‘flip’”
http://tinyurl.com/kk7f3t
I have no idea why this headline just got my attention,
Wrestling Midgets ‘Killed By Fake Prostitutes’
And no it wasn’t in the Daily Sport!
Double post, sorry. The first one wasn’t there, so I did it again…
Thanks for coming!!!!
Andy murray = scotland = failure.
Scotland have never contributed anything to this country.
F*ck off scotland worthless vermin!!!!!!!!
For some reason the Telegraph story was dropping into the Spam folder. I’ve freed up the most recent post linking it (Me’s) and deleted the rest so as to try and avoid too much messing up with the numbers.
459/460/461
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5L4JaRIVUU
2mins and 44secs in, Paxo and Blairs reply
450 - Its an interesting theory.
Of course, the people with the most to gain electorally by Osbornes expenses being all over the local press would be the Cheadle Lib Dems.
467 David Herdson
It’s because it has the m0rtgage as part of its URL
1 LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
470 - It seems Duncans mortgage was difficult to locate, not unique and vague in its resource.
Wibbler - so it does. Thanks.
472 - Would you like to comment on this man’s m0rtgage
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1021668/Tony-Blair-took-300-000-mortgage-constituency-house-worth-just-150-000.html
468. Ah, that smile.
In terms of Duncan the following are the relevant questions
1) Is it reasonable for someone to release equity on an existing property to buy another one?
2) Is it reasonable for a person to remortgage and rearrange the security over the owned properties?
3) Is what is being claimed a direct reflection of the cost of running the second home?
4) Is the amount of the transferred mortgage proportionate and in line with what was borrowed to facilitate the purchase (subject to any adjustment allowable under expenses)?
Anyting else is just Brogan and his little band writing fact as sin.
475 - The political story will be if people cleared by the Conservative Scrutiny Panel end up resigning.
I supect someone in Central Office is penning a “The period covered by the Scrutiny Panel did not consider the period in question” statement.
Sharpening your knife already Tim?
Don’t have too much fun. Expensegate will be back to bite Labour in due course.
If Butlins are still running knobbly knee competitions there’s a dead cert sitting behind Cameron.
476 - didn’t Labour’s ’star chamber’ clear Ian Gibson?
Richard Nabavi — your points are well made. And I repeat the original article in an excrible piece of muck raking. PBers are fools to b e taken in by it. But then this blog is run by a LibDem.
Millie is looking very nice on sky sports news…
476 difficult to see what, from the story as presented, he would be resigning for tim. The guy rearranged his mortgage, the fees office wouldn’t have allowed someone just to start claiming an arbitary sum shoved over from the main residence onto the secondary.
Would have been easier to flip properties if profit were the only concern.
Of course the Telegraph have written it up in the standard judgmental style that has been the common thread of their (increasingly desperate and hysterical) expose.
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Saturday-July-4-2009/Media-Gallery/200907115329080?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15329080_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Saturday_July_4%2C_2009
480 - She does, but give me George Thompson and Sarah-Jane Mee any day
“The Independent claims the Government is considering raising National Insurance contributions to help pay for care for the elderly.”
Is that on top of the rise that is already planned I wonder?
483. George = Georgie
Ha ha ha thanks for coming yorkshire…476!
Millie just needs it doesn’t she!
Millie481 - Feel free to respond to the point I made earlier.
I would make two points about the scrutiny panel.
1.The repayments seem to be random and secret.What is Eleanor Laings £25,000 for? Does it relate to the claim that she avoided $180,000 in CGT?
2.If Osborne, or anyone else for that matter gets done for something not revealed by the scrutiny panel, does that taint the whole exercise ?
No sign of that reported YouGov in Saturdays papers. Either it was a private poll or it’ll appear as an unscheduled poll in one of the Sunday Papers. I think YouGov do the field work for BPIX, so perhaps the MoS will have a poll?
Palin’s odds for 2012 Republican nomination have lengthened massively on Intrade - and liquidity has gone too.
Now trading at 9.2-16.7
“Our Right Honorable liars and the debauching of democracy”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1197422/PETER-OBORNE-Our-Right-Honorable-liars-debauching-democracy.html
397, Gaz. Irrespective of whether you think Redwood should or should not have learnt the Welsh national anthem, the point is that he PRETENDED he knew it.
Redwood could have stood with his mouth shut, respectfully, in silence. That would have been perfectly acceptable.
But, Redwood tried to pretend he knew it, mouthing some words and inclining his head, miming the singing.
The result was hilarious, and Redwood became a laughing stock.
It is the deceit that killed Redwood, not the fact that he didn’t know Welsh.
http://www.exposay.com/celebrity-photos/millie-clode-2009-galaxy-british-book-awards-1kZ6s1.jpg
456. If Nick Griffin is such a native why does he not speak welsh then considering he born and bred welsh. I know that many are like him in this respect but i am pointing out the hypocrisy of his beliefs on integration. He is basically a british imperialist.
492. Welsh Secretaries should be either welsh born and/or bred as its an incredible insult they order this nation around when they don’t know the foggiest!
495 Agreed.
I don’t see why. Actually I’m not sure why we have a Welsh Secretary any longer, but there is surely no reason why the minister responsible for liaison between the UK and Welsh governments can’t come from any part of the UK.
488
1) I don’t know, I presume the panel findings will be made public, but I have nothing solid to add to this point
2) I wouldn’t say it necessarily taints the exercise - it rather depends on whether it is something the scrutiny panel should or could have known about and made a decision on. Examples
a) A Tory MP is found guilty of claiming for a non-existant mortgage - in this case the scrutiny panel have dropped the ball and the exercise would be shown to be pointless and flawed.
b) The sleaze watchdog comes out with a ruling that stops short of sanction against a Tory MP but is critical in some fashion. The scrutiny panel had ordered some repayment but had not passed a sanction on the MP. The MPs resigns from shadow cabinet or from his/her seat for the next election. Would show the inherent problems of the system more than the scrutiny panel - would show the limitations of internal policing and the need for accountable, external policing of expenses.
I actually think much of the ‘expose’ is hogwash - there are a handful of corrupt MPs who need to be dealt with, the remainder seem to fall into a number of ‘grey’ areas of greed, selfishness or ‘they can relly claim for that?!’ - you start punishing people who have not broken the law or explicitly broken the rules and there is a house of cards waiting to come down.
Ergo, it won’t happen.
492. As I said, i am sure he does know the welsh national anthem, at least the first few verses, as it is also his national anthem.
I remember reading in the mid 90’s just after William Hague had been appointed Welsh Secretary a Welsh Office Official saying
“We’ve nicknamed our new English Viceroy “The Yorkshire Nipper”"
494. You are insinuating that there is something wrong with being a British Imperialist?
More Berlusconi antics/incompetence
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/03/g8-summit-italy-berlusconi-obama
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1197352/Berlusconi-hires-topless-model-turned-minister-replace-wife-G8.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6633126.ece
498 - I think the Duncan case may expand the time period on the whole expenses affair.
Shane Greer on Sky made the point that he bought his constituency home “outright” in 1992.
Whether there was a mortgage on it and ho much was claimed goes back 12 years before the released receipts.
495- And Prime Ministers should be English only. No Welsh or Scots or N.Irish need apply, thank you!
Yawn, has this thread turned into an Welsh/Scots(delete as appropriate) moan? Vote Plaid Cymru and sod off already!
363. Did someone mention Peter Phillips?
386. Mr Jones and Napoleon did.
An Alaskan blogger claims that there have been rumours and unconfirmed reports over the last 6 weeks of a criminal investigation into Sarah Palin
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a81/kos102/2009/Other/?action=view¤t=palin-under-criminal-probe.flv
“Andrew Grice: Tories fear ’scorched earth’ policy by Government”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-tories-fear-scorched-earth-policy-by-government-1731262.html
Someone there?
Palin is batshit crazy, we think Brown is bad but she beats him hands down for incoherence and ‘not being straight’.
509 - Only just, off to bed now having just skimmed the thread!
Re: Alan Duncan. He puts his mortgage on his London home when the rules stated you must have your London home. When told to designate his actual second home he moves the mortgage to his second home in his constituency. Am I missing something? How is that not in the spirit as well as the reality of the rules?
Re ’scorced earth’,who the hell but the most four-generations,”m a Tory and proud of it’ would have felt any remorse on the night of May 1st/2nd 1997?
(I actaully concede-as a Labourite I was shaken by the swings in outer Lodon,and actually felt the (VERY odd) pang of compassion for John Major)
Can’t stop too long-NASA are sending me the podcast of the seconds after one Michael Denzil Xavier Portillo ceased to be the MP for Enfield,Southgate,and my reaction,albeit for seconds,was visible from outer space!
The Conservative grassroots aren’t exactly covering themselves in glory over the Palin resignation… there are far too many tweets for comfort saying how sad it is, or hoping she’ll become president.
McCain you can understand - after all, there is ideological loyalty there - but Palin? SARAH PALIN??
High profile examples:
http://twitter.com/LouiseBagshawe/status/2458272859
http://twitter.com/torybear/status/2459840108
These people need to have their heads examined. Forget her politics. In terms of speeches and interviews alone, Sarah Palin makes Gordon Brown look like Cicero. Has they not learnt anything from Cameron about the value of presentability, or moderation in speech?
511-Good night.
And now, there’s someone there?
Cicero - But don’t forget it was she who helped rally the base to Mccain and gave him his one sustained lead in the polls of the whole campaign. In the general she would certainly lose to Obama by a landslide, but to conservatives she is their new saviour (although probably more likely to be the next Barry Goldwater than Ronald Reagan!)
516 - Not in bed yet, taking in the fun sized Andrew Sullivan compilation of Palin reactions.
I mean, her speech isn’t just coherent as politics, it’s barely coherent. Period.
It’s very rare that it’s impossible to understand what someone is thinking but ‘what is anyone still supporting her thinking’???
Some examples here - Reihan Salaam - Conservative commentator and long time Palin tub thumper gave up a few months ago -
“One can’t help but get the impression that Palin is a clownish, vindictive amateur…. What I’m wondering is: Has Sarah Palin undergone some kind of secret lobotomy?”
Steve Benen (on the Democrat side) tries to understand in the article I took that from - http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_07/018921.php
“There are probably plenty of far-right activists and donors whispering in Palin’s ear, telling her to ignore the naysayers and realize she’s ready to lead the nation, but she’s listening to the wrong people. Walking away from the governor’s office after one term is incredibly foolish — but walking away from the governor’s office after two and a half years in office is stupefying.”
517 They are probaly ‘thinking’-and I use the semi-colons advisedly,’When is murse gonna dish out the medication’-I mean,if ,God forbid for the GOP, a Palin-like cnadidate stood,they’d get thumped at least as badly as Goldwater in 1964 (And do not forget;the staes that Mc Cain did hold lat Novemebr were by usually slashed majorities)
Anyone else feel about 1/5 (ie 83.3%) is already a realsitic chance that on Tuesday 6th November,2012,Barack Obama will be re-elected for a second term?
521. Completely agree Patrick.
It amazes me that Obama is almost evens for 2012 (Betfair 1.93). I reckon he should be around 1.33 (ie 1/3).
Treasury announces bonfire of quangos
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6633600.ece
Great - but why didn’t they do it 10 years ago?
“Re: Alan Duncan. He puts his mortgage on his London home when the rules stated you must have your London home. When told to designate his actual second home he moves the mortgage to his second home in his constituency. Am I missing something? How is that not in the spirit as well as the reality of the rules?”
What your missing is labour lies and smears - if I was working from the new labour playbook I would throw in homophobic as well.