When is a poll not a poll?
July 4th, 2009A betting adjudication
I might be on holiday but PB seems to follow me everywhere - even to this stunning sherry port of Sanlucar where Jacky and I have just arrived on the next stage of our holiday which marks our 40th wedding anniversary tomorrow.
Thanks to those who helped bank-roll the trip - notably all those who didn’t vote in the Euro elections which meant that the big positions I took on turnout being below 35% proved to be winners. On top of that there was Fred Goodwin paying part of his £700,000 a year pension back - thus giving me a 6/1 winner.
Peter from Putney and Richard have asked me to rule on a wager - that Labour’s deficit in any poll in a defined period would drop to 7% or below. Richard claims that he’s the winner because of the ComRes Euro election poll for the Green Party which had the Tories just 2% ahead of Labour with the Greens on a breathtaking `15%.
This was a private poll which was not past voted weighted. The survey was part of the Indy’s ComRes poll for May which had Labour 8 points behind. These Westminster figures were past vote weighted while the EU numbers were not.
I’ve ruled that this methodology change for the EU part of the poll could not have been envisaged when the two entered into the wager and that bets of this kind should, unless agreed beforehand, be confined to public polls - not private ones like this one.
Mike Smithson
10pm Sunday papers update…
Telegraph Johnson opens damaging new rift with Brown
Times Secret “doomsday” plans for 20% spending cuts
Double Carpet
MessageSpace Advertising
Smithson is the LAW
Mike, trust you are having a great holiday!!
The fount of wisdom has spoken.
Fnacy this being a betting site and not just somehwehre to come and rant and rave. I never knew…
Have a good one Mr S.
From previous thread on Wacko Jacko songs for Gordo,
The Word Is Out
You’re Doin’ Wrong
Gonna Lock You Up
Before Too Long,
Your Lyin’ Eyes
Gonna Take You Right
So Listen Up
Don’t Make A Fight,
Your Talk Is Cheap
You’re Not A Man
You’re Throwin’ Stones
To Hide Your Hands
Because He’s Mad, He’s Mad,
Come On,
Because He’s Mad, He’s Mad,
You Know It,
Because He’s Mad, He’s Mad,
You Know It, You Know,
And The Whole World Has To
Answer Right Now,
Just To Tell Him Again,
Who’s Mad . . .
5. Very good.
Exclusive Photo of Mike “The Law Man” Smithson on holiday
http://www.uksport.gov.uk/assets/Image/newsArchive/Pier_C_main.jpg
376.I have been interested of late to notice that another round of job losses has been working through the system in the last month. I do think the summer Quarter will see a further contraction in the economy (Q3). Maybe huge numbers of Job losses were overshadowed by MP Expenses and so took the focus away or there was a lull?
Some of the Q2 indications of a stabilisation in contraction IMO have been trumpted as a false dawn. I think this is going to cause further deteriotion as people are shocked by the lack of improvement and further savings are chased - Added to which Petrol Prices at the pumps continue to rise and surely the real levels of Mortgages to customers is further going to erode any possibility of recovery. I really do think that many folk live in a dream world on the economy!
It is like Brown saying that spending can just keep on rising! What a tool! The wealth creating side of the economy is wilting like a summer crop in a drought!
5 - just ordered two Michael Jackson dvds cheap from amazon.co.uk.
less than a fiver each ($8 in real money).
Careful Martin, you’ll have Mark Senior running in here raging at you being an evil Tory and wishing ill on your fellow countrymen!
9. I LOVE Amazon. I do nearly all of my non food shopping at Amazon now.
FPT I saw a rather funny Hannan speech earlier today and popped back to get the URL…
I then discovered that the blogger was sad to learn Sarah Palin was standing down.
Yes really, and not for satire purposes.
http://donalblaney.blogspot.com/
Anyways - the Hannan first two parts are worth a watch - loved the comparison with their Constitution and the EU one.
From previous post (for what its worth)
” “Re: Alan Duncan. He puts his mortgage on his London home when the rules stated you must have your London home. When told to designate his actual second home he moves the mortgage to his second home in his constituency. Am I missing something? How is that not in the spirit as well as the reality of the rules?” ”
err… What your missing is labour lies and smears - if I was working from the new labour playbook I would throw in homophobic as well.
12 - Donal Blaney is also a fan of the seriously unhinged Michelle Bachmann
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_pN2IPAw6E
11 - me too. But the bummer from amazon.co.uk is they charge me about 5 pounds a shipment for air mail to the US and it takes a week to get here. But with the deals they (and HMV) have on box sets it is well worth it. I got ALL the Yes, Minister and Yes, Prime Minister dvds for 6 pounds a couple of months back. All the Porridge for 3 pounds…and they knock off the VAT
I’m regressing into my 80s period, watching all this stuff on PBS.
10. GIN
Mark Senior is an untrained Idiot on economics, I think that is why he lost his Gold Coin!
Morus, in your article about Mandy, you write:
I wondered if he would be offered, and might accept, a role in a Cameron government.
Morus, I think you need to lay off the Laphroaig. Mandy may be an “interesting politician”, one who keeps the 4th and 5th Estates in a state of OMG, him! for a large part of the time, but the fact that he can navigate the political waters now better than he was able to before only means that he has become even better at covering his tracks.
Remember the drama State of Play? That story was based on reality. Mandelson blurs the boundaries between fantasy and reality without even trying. He embodies so well his moniker Prince of Darkness. Remember the uber-billionaire of Norilsk, Deripaska, and the fact that Mandelson was on the boat, but funnily enough, in the shadows?
But on the other hand, just as Palin’s fairly obvious push for the Presidency in 2012 will assist millions of Americans who are waivering on the lesson that all those base policies that Bush embodied are best done away with, so Mandelson’s supposed removal of the stake from his heart will serve to make the British electorate and probably Europe’s too understand and have at the forefront of their minds the fact that - almost without exception - politicians simply cannot be trusted. Not even when you can see them.
Happy anniversary!
“We’ve been together now for forty years,
An’ it don’t seem a day too much.”
http://ingeb.org/songs/myolddut.html
Well done and Happy Anniversary Mike. I’ve only been married for 33 years, but it seems much longer.
She tells me I’m happy.
15 I love Porridge!
I’ve bought some stuff purely on the others have angle - 6 ft Under is brilliant.
Eight minutes ago I clicked on the link at 49 on the previous thread to Sarah Palin’s speech. So far she has been rabbiting on for nine minutes about goodness-knows-what, and hasn’t mentioned anything about resignation. And the video is labelled as “Sarah Palin announces resignation, part 1″. Part 1??? How many parts are there? Is her strategy to bore everybody to death so that they lose all interest in whatever naughtyisms she might have done? How on Earth did this waffling harpie get elected in the first place?
20 - I’ve never seen it. I’m not a big TV watcher these days, other than Dallas Cowboys games (are you still there, Scott P?). The two series I do watch (other than History, Biography, Smithsonian and NatGeo channels) are both on TNT - The Closer and Saving Grace. Beautifully written ensemble dramas, very much like Hill St. Blues used to be.
- and I never miss Top Gear or F1 coverage.
Once two business partners were involved in an important case in civil court worth a very sizeable sum to their firm. Naturally the matter drug out in court, to the point that one of the partners went on a previously scheduled cruise, during which his communication with the outside world would be limited to a few short telegrams.
Finally the judge ruled. And the partner who stayed behind ran from the courtroom and sent the following message:
“Justice has triumphed”
To which the shipboard partner replied:
“Appeal immediately”
Alan Johnson challanges Prime Minister Gordon Brown
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5742745/Alan-Johnson-opens-damaging-new-rift-with-Prime-Minister-Gordon-Brown.html
Is this a no subject thread?
I was musing on the merits of this option whilst vaxing my landing carpet today [I really do live life on the hard-shoulder].
If so, then I wonder where it will go after last night’s stiffy anecdotes!
*Plato is covered in midge bites and feeling a bit grumpy*
13.TrevorsDen As Richard Nabav indicated on the last thread the Alan Duncan story is really a non story. While we can blame Labour types for spreading smears I would much rather focus on looking to the Telegraph to make clear Duncan is not at fault. This is the problem with the Telegraph it has made a number of errors in it’s MP expenses articles, gave into pressure from Brown regarding him claiming cleaning costs but otherwise has not apologised for misreporting individual cases.
24 Lasagne!!!! LOL
25 - stiffy anecdotes?? I smell (figuratively!) Martin Day, his nocturnal stage of undress while at his computer with the lights on and the curtains open, and his stalking of females exercising past his house - ahem - allegedly
21 - Sorry John, that was a link I posted, and yes there is a part two, and yes it gets more incomprehensible as it goes on.
Imagine a JohnPrescott speech, transcribed by Martin Day, put through a shredder and pasted to an autocue by a drunk SeanT..
17 - “Morus, I think you need to lay off the Laphroaig.”
Yes, switch to Highland Park.
25 - shouldn’t you say something to midge?
25 What is vaxing?
22 I’ve only watched two things on my telly in ten years - Eurovision [yes I know] and the start of Shock and Awe. I’m a talk radio junkie and it’s never turned off… Up All Night on R5 is my favourite.
I’ve only recently started to catch up using iPlayer with QT/Newsnight and don’t think I’ve missed much. My DVD buying has all been based on recommendations - with the West Wing being the best of all in the political sphere.
28. Not stalking - watching!
Whilst i have the curtains open the lights are not on as it might attract flies in through the window! After they have had a busy day eating Horse Shit/Dog Shit or laying eggs on dead carcuses i really dont want them buzzying around my head!
22. Dipping in an out…
FPT Yep, the native Philly fans are nuts. The vet is I believe the only sports stadium ever built with a fully staffed courtroom in the basement complete with holding cells. Nice.
by Scott P July 4th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
The GamePass HD service is pretty good for watching the games over here.
29
Tim it would be equivalent to Gordo at PMQ’s proclaiming spending would rise by 0%.
30 - Laphroaig turns Morus Petey.
I learned in home econ that a great way to keep flies out of the kitchen is to put a big bucket of shit in the living room.
So i can remove the ‘allegedly’ then
O/T topic, I hate the weather, and all these sodding flies and midges too.
“Michael! Come back to bed! This is *supposed* to be our wedding anniversary!”
“I’m sorry dear, I can’t. Someone is misinterpreting a poll on the internet.”
Congratulations, Mike!
38. Big Buckets of Shit can seriously damage the quality of the air around you!
40 - After 40 years of marriage I’m sure Mike is aware of what his margin of error is.
“Tessa Jowell urges Brown not to abandon middle classes”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5741772/Tessa-Jowell-urges-Brown-not-to-abandon-middle-classes.html
42 - I agree. Just ask
31/32 Vaxing = carpet washing [domestic task undertaken by those with a cat that has decided to pee on carpet when too lazy to walk downstairs]
And have turned on fly zapper light - the feeling of satisfaction I get when I hear BBZZZTTPPP! almost makes up for my lumpy red hot ankles.
42 - only if you don’t have the windows open …
Sorry if this has been posted before
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5742745/Alan-Johnson-opens-damaging-new-rift-with-Prime-Minister-Gordon-Brown.html
Whitehall plans massive cuts
Secret “doomsday” plans for 20% cuts in public spending are being prepared by senior civil servants, who fear politicians are failing to confront the scale of the budget black hole.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6638323.ece
46 - understand. I have a 3 year old German Shepherd and she sheds like there’s no tomorrow. I’ll have to vacuum soon if she keeps this up..
Weather in Seattle hot and dry, it’s what the meterologists call offshore flow. Traditionally 4th of July weather here is crappy but not this year.
Biting bugs are bad news. But at least they don’t eat paint off your car like southern US ‘love bugs” and I’m NOT talking about Governor Sanford.
“Whitehall plans massive cuts
Secret “doomsday” plans for 20% cuts in public spending are being prepared by senior civil servants, who fear politicians are failing to confront the scale of the budget black hole.
(…)
Downing Street advisers have warned the prime minister they are ready to quit unless he sacks the cabinet minister they blame for encouraging him to make misleading claims about budget figures.
They are demanding the removal of Shaun Woodward, the Northern Ireland secretary, who has a desk in Downing Street after being given a special role advising Brown on strategy. “
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6638323.ece
48. habib butt
It seems that Brown is that insecure that he is briefing against his main rival. It comes to petty briefing now - what a pathetic Government! Not worthy of office, nevermind Power!
Early Sunday stories look like Times and Telegraph are going for the “rats in a sack” infighting angles.
The Times also has Downing Street advisers threatening to quit unless Shaun Woodward is removed.
53 - I know, it chimes in perfectly with what Matthew D’Anconna has written.
BBC boss gets £8m pension from taxpayer
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6638318.ece
50/52-Snap…Also from the link:
“David Cameron’s shadow cabinet has held preliminary meetings with permanent secretaries to brief them about its plans.
Officials complain, however, that some shadow ministers have been vague about the types of savings they are seeking, and warn that the civil service will have to “fill in the gaps”.
(…)
The Tory defector was given his No 10 role last month because of his inside knowledge about how the Conservatives operate.
However, a Downing Street insider has revealed that Woodward’s influence has triggered a bitter row behind the scenes, with senior figures including Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, blaming him for a “calamitous strategic miscal-culation”. “
This weekend’s Sunday papers look very ominous for the future of Gordon Brown. Are the plots hatching?
50 - recommend statically-charged dog house.
For you, not the dog.
(just kidding)
On Topic, it’s difficult to evaluate your decision, because you don’t quote the precise terms of the bet.
Wonder if it might be useful for you to post archives of this and other adjudications on sidebar, as references?
Knife crime is on the rise
Seventy-two people are stabbed or robbed at knifepoint in Britain every day, official figures have revealed. Police recorded more than 26,000 serious knife attacks in the financial year to March 2009, an increase of six per cent on the previous year’s total.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5741371/Knife-crime-is-on-the-rise.html
57. Me
Well if Woodward is telling them in No.10 how the Tories operated in Government 18 years ago, when they were the government seeking a renewed mandate - the Tories will be shitting themseleves!
Huge mock sarcasim and laughter! 
“Damned lies and statistics
MEDIA INTERVIEW: Fraser Nelson, political editor of the Spectator
By Colin Donald, Business Editor”
http://www.sundayherald.com/business/businessnews/display.var.2518234.0.damned_lies_and_statistics.php
From the Telegraph link @44
“Mr Brown’s most senior advisers are said to be at loggerheads over election strategy with Ed Balls arguing for a campaign based on Labour “investment” versus Tory “cuts”
From the Times link @49
“Downing Street advisers have warned the prime minister they are ready to quit unless he sacks the cabinet minister they blame for encouraging him to make misleading claims about budget figures.”
Ed Balls in a pickle, surprise surprise.
35 - as a DirecTV subscriber, for the princely sum of (I think) about $250 I can watch any and every game live in HD with NFL Sunday Ticket, but as Dallas still are the most popular team in terms of TV audience share and merchandise sales (something that puzzles even me), I will probably see at least 6 of their 16 games anyway, so I don’t bother with the $250 option, because they download to my dvr a 15 minute highlights package each week anyway.
Even after not winning a playoff game since my daughter was 8 (she’s now 21) the Dallas Cowboys are far and away the most valuable franchise in US sports, a stat I find astounding.
24. & 48. Blimey.
“Dallas Cowboys are far and away the most valuable franchise in US sports,”
Wow, really, I would have assumed it was the Yankees.
40. L. O. L.
I love the early Saturday Evening Newspaper review by the Tory Boys on here.
D’Anconas article could have been written by anyone scanning the threads on here over the last week.
Except the bit designed to buttress up the position of George Osborne.
The Good ship new Labour is sinking, the Captain is offering lasgane by way of solace……………..
59 - it’s too late. Heidi has been comprehensively spoiled rotten - and it’s at least partly my fault. She sleeps on my bed and gets lots of fuss and attention…I don’t know where I went wrong.
In the south, the biggest problem I encounter is each spring when EVERYTHING outside - cars, bbqs etc turns yellow from the pine pollen… other than the fact a black widow spider has taken up residence in the hole wherein my water meter resides. The meter reader told me this is fairly common.
64 No - Shaun Woodward
The ex and current MPs for Witney seem to be at the heart of Gordon Brown’s problems. Woodward for his “advice” (what Gordon wants to hear) and Cameron for the straightforward way he took Brown apart last PMQs, the latter semingly making the last few believers in Brown give up.
I doubt its just Mr Woodward, Ed Balls must also be in the loop but the Balls-Woodward strategy seems to be playing rather badly.
65 - boast if you must, but thanks to the magic of digital broadcast TV, I can now view re-runs of “Dragnet” and “McHale’s Navy” which are at least as enjoyable as average Cowboy game (leastway for Dallas fans).
Of course, you could get satellite and beam in exciting games featuring the new Seattle Sounders FC in the North American pro-soccer league. Why, not too long ago they had am amazing streak of five games or something that ended in a draw! Now that’s something to cheer! No wonder you Euros are so crazy about yer football; how CAN you survive such excitement?!?
70 - Is that before or after he has asked about the office sitting arrangements and told his amusing Einstein story (which I believe isn’t untrue, no surprises there)?
43. And what sort of swing he needs to look for.
73 - Having watched my fair share of MLS over the past years, C5 + insomnia, I have to say it is a terrible “product”. It turns me off “soccer” and I’m a big fan!
“misinterpreting a poll on the internet”
yet more proof that spellcheck isn’t infallible.
69
Tim
In denial as ever.. Cant you post even a considered comment on what is seriously bad news for the Govt. It WILL be READ by voters, it WILL have an effect, however you might like to deny it. It WILL be all over the blogsphere too. Labour cannot control the media any more.
72 – Ted, you are probably correct about Woodward, imho however it is Balls that calls the shots…but Woodward takes the hit.
75 - And an assessment of honesty regarding present intentions and previous behaviour.
So do we think Alan Johnson is on maneuvres?
74 (correction) which I believe isn’t untrue
->
which I believe isn’t TRUE
67 - yes you would think so - indeed I’m fairly sure that 35 years ago that used to be the case. But baseball is fading fast, particularly among the young under 35 set, and the NFL is a juggernaut in terms of TV viewing. The NFL has long understood that TV is the way. One mid-week World Series game last year started at 9.15pm Eastern, and finished after 2am. People who have to work can’t be bothered with that.
Everyone with a passing interests in sports knows three things year in and year out about the Cowboys: who owns them, who the coach is and who their quarterback is. That is probably untrue of any other team on an ongoing basis. (for example the superbowl winning team in any given year will meet these criteria).
78 - I’ve been posting on here for a while now that Labour should grasp the nettle of cut/savings and that Brown is missing an opportunity, which is the core of D’Anconas piece.
81 could just be that e is living up to his self-billing as an unworthy and didn’t know he was supposed to check before he spoke.
Having fading hopes stapled to your nuts doesn’t make you virile!
speaking of vermin (and I don’t mean two-legged varieties) among worst are:
1. chiggers (in brush)
2. black flies (in woods & wilderness)
80. And whether the technique was approved by the BPC.
In the D’Ancona article, he compares Ed Balls as the Bubbles to Gordon Brown’s Wacko Jacko.
Question, is there any footage of Gordon Brown singing “I’m forever blowing bubbles”
84
Who is going to believe a “Saul” type conversion on the road to Damascus after Gordon Brown’s PMQ’s performances?
73 - Kansas City won the MLS soccer trophy a few years back, and ESPN polled KC residents. Aparrently over 2/3 didn’t even know.
I have to agree with you - particularly with video on demand there is a whole delectable cornucopia of delights (I’m a fan of Hogan’s Heroes) available….
65- wrong! The Redskins are more valuable( biggest sports team in the world by value. Go redskins!
78 I am very pleased that the ‘citizen journalist’ has been given a wider audience by the blogosphere [I don't include myself BTW].
It’s great to read the unpicking of policy, hypocrisy and obfuscation exposes.
Gordon just doesn’t have the twinkle-toes to deal with a news agenda not set by him/Mandy
88 - it would be news if he was blowing anyone….
88. Isn’t that a David Brent joke?
91 - sorry… from the Forbes 2009 article….
The $1 billion-and-up club isn’t particularly broad based. By Forbes’ count, it consists of the New York Yankees, a handful of European soccer clubs and, well, most of the NFL. Spearheaded by the Washington Redskins, which became the first NFL team to break the billion dollar barrier in 2004, the league now boasts 19 of 30 clubs valued above the magic number. The Redskins have since been surpassed by the Dallas Cowboys, whose lucrative merchandising business and (starting next season) new stadium have pushed their value to $1.6 billion, second overall to Manchester United.
61. “Seventy-two people are stabbed or robbed at knifepoint in Britain every day”
Particularly timid type people sometimes never get over an armed robbery - turns them into a nervous wreck and messes their whole life up. Burglary can have that effect on some people too.
94 - Pass, it’s just the D’Ancona article that has set off that train of thought.
Evening all
Re: 52 and others: I’ve heard a number of Conservative-controlled Councils are already working on the 20% scenario. I know of at least two where senior officers and Members have held awaydays planning for a real-term 20% cut in funding over the lifetime of a first Conservative Parliament (2010-15).
Such a cut would be extraordinarily painful for many but not all authorities. It would most adversely affect those where the greater share of funding comes from central Government. Some southern councils, who have suffered under the Prescott-inspired redistribution of funding since 1997, might not do too badly.
There are already authorities reducing their workforce - Merton and Westminster to name but two.
Anything in the Sundays what Sarah Michelle Brown is doing this week, I mean other than being at the gaypride march
89 - I don’t think people will believe Brown which is why I want him replaced.
But I don’t think people necessarily want as PM a man who pledges to “share the pain” of cuts, but in effect plans to “feel the pain” of cuts/savings directed at everyone but himself and other wealthy people.
Trouble in paradise? Mandelson holds back report on MG Rover…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6638419.ece
“‘I’m not talking to you until he leaves’: Mandelson forces Brown to throw Shaun Woodward out of No10 office”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197538/Im-talking-leaves-Mandelson-forces-Brown-throw-Shaun-Woodward-No10-office.html
“Olympics chief Tessa Jowell ‘to quit as MP’”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197557/Olympics-chief-Tessa-Jowell-quit-MP.html
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-1197502/PTER-HITCHENS-Dave-leader-Heather-Mommies-Party-.html
Hitchens furious that Cameron isn’t bludgeoning gays in Parliament Square and eating raw meat.
103 - Is it to spend more time with her husband, oh no wait…
103. I do wonder sometimes…
Which Labour MPs *WON’T* chicken out in May next year?
(a) How many will actually stay for opposition?
(b) How many who are defending marginals will stay and fight them?
103 - “has told friends she believes it is time to step down after 17 years as MP for Dulwich, South London, and move to the House of Lords.”
How presumptuous!
You guys obviously haven’t seen the magic spectacle that is NFL Europe! Hmmmmmmm, it’s like watching…errr…people moving about
The ship is also leaking like a sieve. Who put the Woodward story out in the media. No prize for guessing….
104 - I’m very glad that the Conservative leadership disgusts Hitchens on this issue.
It would help Cameron immensely if MPs who agree with Hitchens were voted out in the next election.
There one in Eastbourne I can think of.
OT For Sarah Palin fans…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197443/How-believing-Fred-Flintstone-help-spread-creationism.html?ITO=1490
106. Casino Royale
There is something in this Labour MPs stepping down to become Peers that i find extreamley distasteful. At this rate the Lords will compete with the Peoples Congress of China for member numbers!
110 Tim isnt that a touch repetitive. How many different ways do you have of saying the same thing? We get it, you don’t like the MP. OK>
110 Hitchens seems to be disgusted by everything that isn’t brutal, repressive and unpleasant.
107 - The number of Labour MPs standing down at the next GE keeps getting higher and higher, surely there can’t be enough peerages for all. Could a televised ‘It’s a Knockout’ competition see 5 lucky winners and raise funds for the virtually bankrupt party?
106. Casino
Not just marginal seats either.
They’ll be plenty of Labour MPs who have majorities of over 15% and who have never had a hard election campaign and/or neglected their constituencies.
How many of them will want to stand in 2010 when all they’ve got to look forward to even if they win is opposition.
115 - Well wasn’t there a story a while back about a crazy number of Labour MP’s writing to Gordo pleading for places.
104. Hitchens seems to be defined by nothing less than opposing everything and anything that’s happened - or, indeed, hasn’t happened - since 1959.
The man is a nut.
111 - The idea that Palin believes the world was inhabited by Dinosaurs and humans simultaneously is sadly an urban myth.
108 - R.I.P. NFL Europe
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d801308ec&template=without-video&confirm=true
117 (cont) Here we go,
52 Labour MPs apply to sit in House of Lords
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/28/gordon-brown-labour-crisis
104. Dyed in some wool somewhere
Peter Hitchens has never got over being defeated for K & C has he? He is such a fool, taking that so personally! Portillo was always likely to win that nomination due to his experience in the Last Tory Government and the name recognition that went with it! Added to the potential leader tag!
IIRC Hitchens anti-Tory Ranting only started after that! Shame no one mentions it on BBC QT as i think Hitchens would explode if wound up!
119 - until you have devoured the contents of conservapedia.com you may wish to hold that thought….
Hitchens is a reactionary religious nut: that he finds gay people an abhorrence is hardly a surprise. Thankfully his breed is dying out.
108. On the contrary, I am one of the 18 people that witnessed the awesome spectacle that was the Scottish Claymores live at Murrayfield
117. Oracle
Yes, Barry Sheerman was alleged to have been turned down for one! That is why he stropped!
I must update Barrys website actually on his expenses etc!
I felt Sheerman was holding on till the next election to trade his seat for a Peerage! I think Sheerman must have miscalculated how unpopular Labour has become!
107 / 112 - all in the new spirit of ‘entitlements’ !
What a T##t,
MI6 chief blows his cover as wife’s Facebook account reveals family holidays, showbiz friends and links to David Irving
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197562/MI6-chief-blows-cover-wifes-Facebook-account-reveals-family-holidays-showbiz-friends-links-David-Irving.html
110. “It would help Cameron immensely if MPs who agree with Hitchens were voted out in the next election.”
Impossible.
As soon as Hitchens realises someone agrees with his position he modifies or changes it - it is just not possible to satisfy him.
Hitchens lives for opposing things. If you ever ask him what his proposed solution is he is always very vague and dismissive; he then promptly returns to his comfort zone of attacking again.
I think he needs some serious help.
79.”72 – Ted, you are probably correct about Woodward, imho however it is Balls that calls the shots…but Woodward takes the hit.”
Sounds similar to what happened after the bottled Autumn GE. Balls was pushing for it, but Douglas Alexander took the blame and the political hit at the time.
113 - I neither like nor sislike the MP.
I supect Ii would dislike someone with a voting record such as his on matters of equality.
What I am doing is unveilng a new betting plan in Lib Dem/Tory marginals.
It consists of backing the Lib Dem where the Tory is priced too shortly, where the Conservative MP in place has a homophobic voting record and whose removal would help David Cameron to detox the Conservative party.
What do you think?
In think its an atruistic cross party betting strategy.
122 He is the sort of bloke I would love to wind up repeatedly.
He is a twit of the worst type.
Encouraged by the Times report about 20% spending cuts.
But it needs to be more:
- slash state spending by 50%
- stop all benefits except pensions
- cut 50% of all government jobs
- increase VAT to 30%
127. Michael Jackson is going to be buried without his Brain apparently, I think he would make a great Cabinet Minister in Gordon Browns Government if that is the case!
128 – “T##t”, agreed. Is the wife trying to get shot of him or just get him shot?
99.MaisieW, you always get a puff piece about Sarah Brown in the Saturday edition of the Daily Mail. Absolutely guaranteed.
131 I think your are being disingenouos.
124. I think it’s even more simple than that - he likes to be extreme.
Remember: the man used to be a Communist.
Maybe he felt he couldn’t carve out enough of a niche for himself there?
133.
You forgot the last point
-sends the Tory party back into the wilderness for a generation.
“Gordon Brown’s secret weapon to head off rebels.. his wife’s lasagne
(…)Mr Johnson’s intervention came on Tuesday, a day the Government had hoped the headlines would be dominated by Schools Secretary Ed Balls’s new education blueprint.
One senior Labour source said: “We had no idea he was going to tear up the policy.
“There is a growing view among some of Alan Johnson’s people that they don’t need to consult No 10. Relations are cool, if not icy.””
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/07/04/gordon-brown-s-secret-weapon-to-head-off-rebels-his-wife-s-lasagne-115875-21494948/
133 Ave It, you are forgetting the key element!
Flat tax flat tax flat tax!!!
And bring back NHS specs
99-Look at 140!
140 Yes Lasagne
;) I havent stopped laughing about it. Bound to rally the troops that is!
*look at the link
140 - Theres a specific marketing thing going on here with the “food in a recession” angle.
Cameron released details about Meat Loaf for dinner (the dish,not the singer - even Pickles would be challenged by that one)
142/143/144.
Yet more evidence of what Brown was trying to do with Smeargate!
119 - Tim you are on very dodgy ground indeed with this one.
I live in the deep south, and many people (not a majority, possibly not a plurality but many) reject outright the theory of evolution, are philosophically opposed that we are descended from (sic) monkeys, and believe that God created the universe - poof! - exactly as it is today, some have heard and agree with Bishop Usher, and that anything to the contrary is not possible because it contradicts the bible which is the incontrovertible and infallible voice of Gahd. That’s it. Closed mind, not open to argument or critical faculty. Ask them why they believe this and they - inevitably - give you some variant of “I just do, and that’s all there is to it.”
You will find that is one of the tenets of - extreme - conservatism. Not all conservatives by any means are this extreme but there are those around who are.
133 - I’d like to see a Labour voter tax, might help to reduce the national debt a bit.
102 Brown, Woodward, Mandelson, all at loggerheads with each other. Whatever could be going on? Add in the gruesome Balls and you have a potent recipe for disaster.
‘I love you, but can destroy you’ - Mandelson to Brown, 1994.
102.Well the briefing against the new boy in the bunker has started in earnest. God, they just cannot help themselves.
I found Peter Hitchins a complete turn off. He is so negative about everything, what a miserable git.
146 - I’m reminded of what Will Rogers said about either Coolidge or Harding:
“It’s not what he doesn’t know that worries me: it’s what he knows for sure that just ain’t so.”
This would also seem to apply to Mr. Gordon Brown
Bercow the moderniser? A foolish move IMHO
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6638189.ece
Correction.
Recession Dinners - Meat Loaf was at George Osbornes house.
The deal was said, by senior Tory sources, to have been sealed over a meatloaf lunch on a Saturday last month at the West London home of George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, and the man whose job would be overshadowed by Mr Clarke’s return, according to some commentators. It all sounded too good to be true. Had they really eaten meatloaf – a reassuringly solid Ken-style dish?
Clegg must make a move.
If he’d tempted Joanna Lumley to stand for the Lib Dems in Norwich North she would have won.
If he did it over a lunch of bread and dripping a landslide would be assured.
153 - Meat Loaf was at George Osbornes house
Did he sing Bat out of Hell? Paradise by the dashboard light?
149. Well we know that ‘fib for victory’ has gone down like a lead balloon with the press, and that the public want cuts, so perhaps there are people in the cabinet who want a change of tack before it is too late.
147 - I think you got the wrong end of the stick.
the story about Palin believing that dinosaurs walking the planet with humans is an invention.
155
It is too late, the fatuous and incredulous idea that Gordon Brown will keep on spending is etched in voters consciousnesses.
Man overboard.
139 LOL spanner!!!
141 yes brilliant thinking - thought it a bit radical to mention but hey why not one rate 20% no handouts for failures!
Freedom for Britain!!!
Put the failures in the workhouse - start cleaning my toilet!!!!!
I notice Boy George was at Gay Pride today, didn’t he serve a long time in jail! What was it 3 or 4 months of his 15 months sentence.
154 - Osbornes Yacht leaks to a journalis would suggest Meat Loaf with “You Took the Words Right out of My Mouth (Hot Summer Night)”
Daily Mail - 21st out of 23: Defence Secretary’s Cabinet rank is the lowest in history prompting Armed Forces anger
“Gordon Brown is facing growing anger among Armed Forces chiefs after it was revealed that new Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth has the lowest-ever ranking in the Cabinet pecking order for a holder of the post.
Mr Ainsworth is ranked just 21st out of the 23 members of the Cabinet – which senior MoD officials fear is a sign that budgets will be slashed and flagship projects such
as renewing the Trident nuclear deterrent cancelled.
A list of Cabinet Ministers released by Downing Street reveals that only inexperienced Transport Secretary Lord Adonis and new boy Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw rank beneath Mr Ainsworth.
Historically, Defence Secretaries – such as Michael Heseltine, who served under Margaret Thatcher, and John Reid in Tony Blair’s regime – are normally among the most prominent figures in Government.
When Gordon Brown assembled his first Cabinet in June 2007, the then Defence
Secretary Des Browne was ranked sixth in the hierarchy – although the Forces
were furious that Mr Browne doubled up as Scottish Secretary.
Mr Ainsworth’s predecessor, John Hutton, who resigned shortly before the latest reshuffle, was ranked tenth.
The top four Ministers after the Prime Minister are Commons Leader Harriet Harman, Business Secretary Lord Mandelson, Chancellor Alistair Darling and Foreign Secretary David Miliband.”
Says it all really!
Did I miss the news that Tessa Jowell is to stand down as an MP at the next GE?
152. Maggie Thatcher Fan
I agree, could cause confusion.
The Member for Haltonprice and Howden or the Member for Monmouth?
There are two Angela Smiths as well!
159 - 3 months for imprisoning somebody, then assaulting them while off your head on coke (and having previous), TOUGH ON CRIME, anybody remember that slogan?
Millie is on sky sports news 405!!!!!!!!!!!!!
156 - Tim, reread my post 147, and check conservapedia.com.
Don’t take my word for it - go and look yourself.
It is not an invention; some People deny darwinism, and believe exactly that!
158. Hi Ave it 09. Missed you, where you been man?
“Brown, Woodward, Mandelson, all at loggerheads with each other. Whatever could be going on?”
Mike Smithson has gone on holiday, perhaps? Cue political chaos…
165 - I know they do.
But the story about Palin was made up.
We had a discussion the other night on here about the states that voted Republican in higher percentages than at the 2004 election and its an “Arc of Stupidity” that stretches down from West Virginia through Arkansas and Down to Lousiana.
I think the dinosaur people may coincide with that map.
Bob Ainsworth?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/03/article-0-033D9D850000044D-151_224×359.jpg
156 - sorry forgot to give a link.
http://www.conservapedia.com/Theory_of_evolution#Age_of_the_Earth_and_Universe_and_the_Macroevolutionary_Position
it’s a start Tim….
Here’s a quote from am magazine article about her.
“When Trig was born, Palin wrote an e-mail letter to friends and relatives, describing the belated news of her pregnancy and detailing Trig’s condition; she wrote the e-mail not in her own name but in God’s, and signed it “Trig’s Creator, Your Heavenly Father.” ”
Please note, I am not in any way criticizing her beliefs, but merely trying to point out to Tim that the dinosaur / humans coexistence belief is by no means an urban myth.
102. Crikey. Is this the beginning of Mandy’s final betrayal of Gord?
168 - by and large that is the case - so you are now saying that because Palin isn’t in that arc she doesn’t believe this - what is your reason for saying this is an urban myth?
Labour relaunch is already sinking
Martin Ivens
Though no one could blame you for missing it, the government had a relaunch last week with the publication of a 126-page prospectus called Building Britain’s Future. The Titanic has been raised from the bottom of the sea, although Captain Brown still has a fatal attraction to icebergs.
The importance of this extended election manifesto, however, does not lie in its boasts of past achievements and promises of future entitlements. Instead it finally settles the fact that No 10’s political vision of the future is blurred.
As usual with the prime minister, the document is all tactics, no strategy. Of course inside the report there are the usual traps for the Tories. Is David Cameron going to deny patients their entitlement to see a cancer specialist within a fortnight? Does he think your child shouldn’t have one-to-one tuition – never mind how it is all going to be paid for – as Ed Balls, the schools secretary, proposes? But otherwise this blueprint for Britain is themeless. Is Gordon Brown new Labour or old Labour? He won’t tell us. Perhaps he’s middle-aged Labour.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/martin_ivens/article6637994.ece
170 Is conservapedia for real? Its list of Wikipedia inaccuracies is laughable. Surely in America you can believe in right wing politics but not be a religious nutter?
171-Gin-And the Times is reporting almost the same thing.
172 - What I’m saying is that the stuff about Palin and the dinosaurs was made up
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Does_Sarah_Palin_believe_that_dinosaurs_were_alive_4000_years_ago
Perhaps the reason for her resignation is to spend more time in the Arc of Stupidity.
166 TY!!!
Still here - not posting so much - going for more quality than quantity!
EG
Tim is a spanner!!!!!!
174 - yes, unfortunately the really REALLY extreme conservatives buy into this stuff.
On a debate of all the Republican candidates before the November election, they were asked to raise their hands if they didn’t believe in evolution and most did.
Wiki answers is not quite the source of record on which I’d bet the farm.
The real news here tonight though, the news that will last lobg after this ghastly government has impolded and been put on the scrap heap, is the news that Whitehall is drawing up emergency plans for 20% cuts, whoever wins the next election.
Can you imagine having to be the PM that presides over such a drastic cut in public services? Like I;ve posted before, even the Tories themselves haven’t really begun to appreciate the dire mess they are going to inherit next year. We need an election right now, because the longer we go without the break being applied to the public purse, the worst the eventual crash will be. Its like we’re hurtling out of control into a wall at 100mph. Nobodys driving. Nobodys applying the break. The crash will be savage….
177 - Ave it, I have missed your posts saying “Cons gain everything”
Whilst the Good ship Labour is crashing on the rocks, Tim wants to divert the thread to American politics that has no relevance to whats happening now.
173 – “the Government had a relaunch last week”
When should we expect to see the first evidence of a Brown bounce in the polls?
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Sunday-July-5-2009/Media-Gallery/200907115329378?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15329378_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Sunday_July_5%2C_2009
180 now i say ‘con win quite a lot of seats’!!!
179. GIN,
The Point is the cuts are neccesary due to Labour Party mismanagement of the economy! It is Labours fault! Labour tax rises or cuts have been put off till after a GE!
Assuming the Tories get elected at the next election - the public will not blame the Tories for being the executioner! The Villain will be blamed Labour! Sure none of its going to be easy because Brown has sought a scorched earth policy.
Lets cut now!!!!!!
50% cut now!!!!!!!
Lets cut NHS spending by 75% because its all wasted anyway!!!!!
And cut education by 90% - sack the teachers - lets get back to the 3 Rs and only 10% going to university!!!!
And close all green/Guardian type activities!!!!!
178 Actually Conservapedia is quite funny
On Feminism “A modern feminist tends to… shirk traditional gender activities, like baking”
On marriage: “Ancient Rome’s decline and its eventual fall in A.D. 476 were due in no small part to a growing tolerance of extramarital sex, particularly homosexual acts, beginning in the Late Republic period ending in 27 B.C.”
Surely it’s a parody?
185. Indeed. Labour have literally ruined us. That this should happen after such an extended period of growth and prosperity makes the coming spending retraction all the more dreadful. After this shambles, if anybody votes for Labour in the next 100 years they need their heads testing !
188 here here - labour will vever win an election again!
Labour = bigger enemy of Britain than Hitler in 1940!!!
Noone has mentioned the spreads on seats for ages, have they not moved?
“Frank Field says he will go to jail rather than comply with new rules forcing MPs to say how much time they spend on outside interests.
‘I will declare my other earnings but not the hours, as I was not sold into slavery when I became an MP,’ says Labour’s Moonlighting Martyr.
‘I will not pay the £5,000 fine and I will go to jail if necessary. We need more MPs with outside interests, not fewer.’”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/columnists/article-1197503/BLACK-DOG-Standing-Moonlight-Martyr.html
189 “Labour = bigger enemy of Britain than Hitler in 1940!!!”
And have done more damage to Britain than the Luftwaffe…
192 here here
We hate labour!!!!!!!!!!
PS Tim =
187 - Would that it were so.
I say again, and please believe me, that the extreme right wing conservatives, who tend to be the religious right, buy into this stuff. Note the word ‘extreme’. It is not mainstream. But enough right wing religious zealots buy into it to keep it going.
Those who think the bible is the unchallengable, authentic voice of God and not to be questioned are out there. I know people who believe this completely and unquestioningly.
“Mr Brown should engage with reality”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6638371.ece
187. It’s run by Phyllis Schlafly’s son. So regrettably, it’s for real.
We hate labour and we hate labour.
We hate labour and we hate labour.
We hate labour and we hate labour.
We are the labour haters!!!!!
195 - Is it me, or is it becoming more public that newspaper folk think Brown is a bit bonkers?
190. MTF. Not really. A small creep off the high/low after the Euros
SPIN latest
Conservative Seats
SELL 355 - 360 BUY
Labour Seats
SELL 205 - 210 BUY
Liberal Democrats Seats
SELL 52 - 55 BUY
191. Good on Frank! Why doesn’t he go and sit with the Conservatives and have done with it.
The bbq beckons, it’s a mild 88, and the chicken is marinaded nicely, so after my steak and eggs brunch, it’s time to stuff my face with 4th of July barbecue.
Good night all!
199 in line with Ave it projections except Ave it has Con slightly lower Lab slightly higher LD lower…
199
Thanks Scott, much appreciated.
Millie
Millie
Millie…
http://hub.tv-ark.org.uk/images/skytv/sky_images/skysportsnews/gallery/skysportsnews_millie_clode.jpg
198 - I refer my right honourable friend to post #5
198 - its not you Habib, i’m getting the same impression
Link @195.
“How long can this go on? Every week Gordon Brown is presented with new numbers, taken from the Treasury’s own documents, showing his government is planning to cut public spending from 2011. Every week he denies it,”
It would appear the floppy haired posh boy got it right at PMQs, ask a simple question, sit back, and watch Gordon Brown shoot himself between the eyes.
Next week, “would the Right Honourable berk like to see some photos of himself on a rocking horse?”
204 - Sorry Ave It, but Georgie Thompson rules
http://www.georgiethompson.co.uk/
A Tale of Two Political(ish) Tendencies
(This is not a poem, by the way, despite the title)
Yesterday I put a 500ml bottle of water in the freezer so that it would be frozen solid for today.
Today I went on the Gay Pride march (for the first time in several years that I’ve been), but it wasn’t until I arrived that I realised I had forgotten to bring the bottle.
When I got to Trafalgar Square, I bought a different bottle of water (not frozen) for £2 and then booed Harriet Harman.
The highlight of the day was walking past a counter-demonstration by a small group of miserable religious nutters with placards of biblical quotations (interestingly, I didn’t notice the one about “abomination”).
———————
It was a whole lot more fun than the alternative, which would have been to go to the third day of “Marxism 2009″ and sit through four 75-minute sessions on various boring subjects. I went to the first day (on Thursday) but when I was there I didn’t really enjoy it, I didn’t feel connected, and I kept thinking “Why am I here?”.
I realised that the reason I wasn’t enjoying it was not “because I’m a Stalinist rather than a Trotskyist” [the event is organised by the Trotskyist SWP] but because I’m not properly a Marxist at all. I just don’t feel like one. I don’t get it when they go on all the time about the “working class”, as if the “whole people” don’t matter. I’ve always been a monarchist, and I’ve never been comfortable with the idea of lots of people dying in the process. I’ve realised that it doesn’t really matter whether the number of people who died was 1 million or 2 million or 10 million (I think it’s towards the lower end of the range), and it doesn’t really matter whether the people were “executed”, or “murdered”, or died as a result of incompetence or bad management or starvation. It’s too much for my conscience to deal with.
I have read a lot of interesting stuff over the last few years which I have acquired from the CPGB(ML), the Stalin Society (of which I was a member for one year), and others, as a result of which I have substantially changed my ideas about issues such as war, imperialism, intervention, and independence; and I am less likely to accept undigested the prevailing establishment/media narrative about world or historical events; but ultimately there are too many holes and discrepancies and dubious interpretations in what I have read.
The Marxist-Leninist explanation / excuse which I have been told for this is that the transition from Capitalism to Communism (i.e. Socialism) is something which occupies “a whole historical epoch” and that it is necessary for there to be a strong fightback by the working class after the revolution to prevent a “restoration” by the former capitalist / imperialist establishment. That sounds like an excuse to me. It just means that socialist countries have an excuse to be repressive and hierarchical for decades or centuries.
I think that Marxism-Leninism is a bit like a religion, where people have to accept that something must be “true” because Marx or Lenin said so, and that a certain course of action is required or justified because it was predicted to happen like that 150 years ago.
Am I being too long-winded? Anyway, Friday 3rd July was the day I realised that:
(a) I am not a Marxist any more;
(b) I am (for that reason) happier now than I have been for the last 6 months (even though I have lost several friends whom I met on the journey);
(c) It would probably be better for me if I don’t worry about trying to work out whether I ever was one in the first place.
Conservapedia is genuine but it has been infiltrated now and again by liberals poking fun - their banned list is absolutely massive.
On Palin’s belief in young Earth creationism, there is no record of her supporting or refuting it.
a sting?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197555/Tories-Andrew-Lansley-walks-Labour-s-internet-trap—little-help-glamorous-woman.html?ITO=1490
“Brown planning another National Insurance tax grab to fund elderly care plan”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197580/Brown-planning-National-Insurance-tax-grab-fund-elderly-care-plan.html
“Brown planning another National Insurance tax grab to fund elderly care plan”
The link gets caught in the spam filter.
http://tinyurl.com/lutcr7
212/3 Brown is a nutter - just shoot him now!!!!
212/3/5 Labour haved killed off half of the over 70s by
a. wrecking the health service
b. tripling gas/electricity prices and
c. letting crime get out of control!!!
Lets hang all labour MPs now!!!!!
“Gordon Brown: No one in the world should have to go hungry – we need to act now”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/gordon-brown-no-one-in-the-world-should-have-to-go-hungry-ndash-we-need-to-act-now-1732184.html
“Oh no. Not another one who wants to be in the West Wing”
By Andrew Rawnsley
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/05/david-cameron-west-wing
217 shoot all labour mps and give their money to world charities!
Labour = ***ts
217 If Brown feel so strongly about poverty, I suggest he resigns as PM, sets up his own charitable foundation and raises the money himself. Whilst dealing with the suffering of others is an admirable cause, it’s time he stopped hosing the long suffering taxpayers money on his wasteful and inefficient vanity projects.
“Palin hammers media, hints at national ambitions” via Facebook
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
217. Me
I really object to Brown - People are going Hungry and Homeless in this country due to his incompetence.
Gordon Brown is an utter idiot.
216
1 wrong
2 wrong (electric etc privatised by Tories)
3 wrong
223 valleyboy = tw*t
Wales = LOL!!!!
220. EdP
Brown is a Pious Prick - He doesnt mind causing suffering here, indeed he enjoys it if he thinks it will damage the Tories no matter how unpolitical the victims will be!
I really do think Brown should be tried for Treason and the death penalty restored. They should try Blair as well!
223 specifically -
a. health service worst ever under labour - 000s die every year of MRSA mainly old people - MRSA caused by Labour incompetence
b. fuel prices up 300% under Labour
c. crime all time high particularly affecting old, caused and encouraged by labour
Labour = …..
225 i agree lets just hang all labour now (and i dont even support the death penalty!)
Lets not mess around anymore - pow pow pow up against the wall feel it prescott you c…
Labour should be exterminated!
Blow Torche and plies suppleid to Tory Voters to torture Labour voters into admiting Labour failure!
Rawnsley’s article is really good.
227. No, I am not in favour of it generally but in the case of Gordon Brown - He is Guilty!
228 yes if we shot the 5,000,000 labour supporting vermin we could cut taxes and increase overseas aid!!!
228 - I don’t think they can be claimed as an election expense under the present rules.
232
231 - it would throw the defence budget out of kilter though.
228/232 - I’ll lend them the money then.
232-
218. Rather worrying that Cameron appears to want to govern in a Presidential style. We need a return of strong Cabinet and good government.
My suspicion is that in the end, being elected with a small majority (perhaps between 20-40) will mean that Cameron has to take more notice of his Cabinet than I thinks he will right now….
UK Financial Investments warns there will be no quick sale of RBS and Lloyds shares:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5743307/UK-Financial-Investments-warns-there-will-be-no-quick-sale-of-RBS-and-Lloyds-shares.html
You can read this as the banks are still in deep shit and they were shown to be suseptable in the stress tests! It is probably still be the case that they are only being kept functual by Tax payer money. I noticed Talk of stopping Lloyds TSB acquisition of HBOS has stopped. That is an utter Scandal how Brown managed to noble Lloyds TSB with that and create more job losses.
Ave it = Past it!
Godfrey = The future!
A new maniac, for a new PB!
237. If Cameron has a 20-40 Majority he will be in a very strong position it will not be like John Majors government, Cameron will have brought the party back to power from a position unthinkable only a couple of years ago. My prediction for the next election is a Tory Majority of 30 - 200 seats as it has been for a long time when giving predictions on here.
“Vote for the Wacko You Know” verus “Vote for a Kinder, Gentler Wacko”
240. Well, he’d be in a strong position from the POV of reviving the party, but he’d still have the day to day realities of governing with a small majority to deal with.
I’m just looking for way that Cameron doesn’t govern like a President, because we’ve had far to much of that style of government and its lead us to where we are today; ruined, discredicted and on the very of national bankruptcy. If the Cameron government is going to govern in a presidential stlye, it will be sowing the seeds for its downfall from day one.
239 godfrey might be tim in disguise!
Free ronnie biggs now! shoot straw instead!!!
240 - the make up of the opposition parties in the HoC will also be crucial. If the opposition is spread over more than just Labour and Liberal Democrats then this would strengthen the Tory position.
Crikey Gordon Brown really is stupid - Another desperate dividing line, this time on National Insurance and elderley care!
Why does he keep doing these stupid things? What is the point of Gordon Brown? He just needs gassing and removing from No.10, by the time he wakes it it would all be over!
209, John Looney - very interesting comments, and think that range of thoughts you express are shared at one time or another by a lot of folks, including many pbers.
246, sorry, make that John Loony
240-He will be in a strong position in the beginning but that will probably change once he starts making the tough decisions. I doubt that he will maintain the same level of support during all his time as prime minister.
He will need the Cabinet support to make some decisions, and if he is smart, he will know that supporting a Cabinet style since the start of his premiership, when he’s strong, will guarantee their support later.
“the tough decisions”
Did I really write that?
245 - all part of Marquis de Mandy’s brilliant plan to lull you & yer ilk into overconfidence.
242. Well I would hardly call Gordon Brown presidential or definitive or firm!
I think Cameron would Govern in a collective Cabinet, think back to the various reports on democracy etc. The way he annoited William Hague his Deputy.
I think Cameron would be a much more competent PM than Brown or Blair.
No government is going to last indefinatly, I would focus on Labours failure rather than what might happen in circumstance X if Y happens. The reality of the present situation is that you will be paying Tax for years because of Browns mismanagement of the economy. That means less Growth and less tax to pay for public Services, who ever is in power. Another 5 Years of Brown and we will be like Zimbabwe.
The 20% cuts news is an absolute bombshell. Once again, the civil service is moving to undermine a prime minister they consider to be dangerously out of control, as they did before the last budget. ‘In office, but not in power’ indeed.
As for the handbags stuff between Brown, Mandelson and Woodward…who’d have thought, it eh?
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/femail/article-1197563/The-beautiful-refugee-Bosnia-clinched-7-3bn-deal-saved-Barclays.html
252 - handbags with Johnston too
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Johnson-ditched-ID-cards-without.5430212.jp
Goodnight all
187: I have an American conservative friend (we have an interest in games in common and generlaly avoid talking politics) who recommended Conservapedia to me as a good source of ‘factual data from a right-of-centre viewpoint’. I had a look and changed the subject…
253-OMG, it’s him!
253 - Well that bloke will never win an election. He’s balder than OGH.
209 “A Tale of Two Political(ish) Tendencies”
A really interesting post, and brave of you to be so open about what must have been a difficult thing to face up to.
The contrast between Gay Pride and Marxism 2009 could not be more marked. OTOH Gay Pride is about civilised tolerance and respect of minorities, and standing against hate. On the other, Marxism is about intolerance of dissent, no respect for opposing views, and hatred of a mythical oppressing class.
Have you considered getting involved in the work that will be needed to rebuild an effective left-of-centre voice after the next election, when the failed New Labour experiment gets the kicking that it deserves?
223. Price controls on electricity and gas, were, if i remember correctly removed by *this* government.
Was the site down?
260 - If Palin gets in the Senate, she will be president within twelve years…
by Gaz July 3rd, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Gaz.
Could you do some betting tips for us?
Yes me
263-Thanks Habib.
This puts a new complexion on the recent Lansley gaffes for which I excoriated him… he should still have dodged them, but this is really really dodgy stuff.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197555/Tories-Andrew-Lansley-walks-Labours-internet-trap—little-help-glamorous-woman.html
It’s sad but I think it’s now necessary for political parties to vet interviewers before agreeing to interviews.
Apologies for responding to something on a previous thread from seven hours ago, but I think Oracle’s bizarre suggestion that I’m a bit like Nick Griffin for pointing out that Tony Blair isn’t particularly Scottish is worthy of a quick rebuttal. He’s spent the vast bulk of his life, including much of his childhood in England. His profession before politics was as an English barrister. Perhaps more trivially he has an English accent, but most importantly of all he has publicly defined himself as English rather than Scottish many times. Even the ‘educated in Scotland’ is only part of the truth - much of his education was in England. By any reasonable measure, this bloke is English, and I must say don’t really feel like I’m straying into BNP territory by pointing that out. Consider yourself rebutted, Master Oracle. (I hope I haven’t just made the same mistake I made with Plato.)
Of course, the only reason some were determined to make Blair Scottish was in the hope of maing Paxo’s absurd fantasy of the ‘Scottish Raj’ stick in the popular imagination. It always reminded me of a comment by Joyce McMillan many years ago - she pointed out that when people said that ‘Britain is run by Scots’ it sounded awfully like men several decades ago saying ‘everyone knows the world is run by women really’ (ie. as an excuse not to do anything about gender inequality).
Sorry if already posted ..
Sun Times reporting that Mandy held back reports into MG Rover..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6638419.ece
265 - That makes Lansley seem even more pathetic.
He claims he is fit to run the NHS but must have those who listen to him vetted if they happen to be the girlfriend of a labour supporting blogger.
Very sad.
Presumably Cameron thinks those MPs he’s got outside the Shadow Cabinet are even more inept.
Looks like Brown has a mutiny in the civil service as well. Probably the worst newspaper headlines to date for Brown as it simply shows he is no longer in control of the Govt and its machinery. Worrying.
267 - from that report -
The report, which is expected to show how Labour wasted £6m propping up the car company for a few extra days in the run-up to the 2005 general election, could be delayed until after the next general election.
makes interesting reading.
262. What are the odds on President Palin for 2012 or 2016? Comparable to the 50/1 which Mike got on Obama in 2005?
A few people have mentioned Peter Hitchens. In my 2001 General Election manifesto, I mentioned him and Peter Tatchell as examples of the diversity of opinions which would potentially enrich representation and democracy if we had STV instead of FPTP. For some reason I decided that if I had mentioned him in my manifesto then I ought to send him a copy; about three months later I received a letter of acknowledgement, in which the letter and the envelope were both addressed to “Mr. Carhill”.
266. (the last bit)
Or it reminds me of the hysterical homophobes who think/thought/argued that the legalisation of homosexuality would result in it becoming compulsory/ universal/ humans becoming extinct, etc.
266 - You still can’t escape the facts, Blair was born in Scotland. He went to school in Scotland. You didn’t say “particularly” Scottish, you said wasn’t Scottish.
You go on about other people making a big deal about this, but you are the one who brought it up and got very touchy about it and the claims of an over-representation of Scots in the Blair’s cabinet (that was admittedly put more crudely by another poster). It is fact that there were a large number of Scots in the high ranking positions under Blair (and as I said at the time it didn’t particularly bother me, I was simply trying to correct a possible misunderstanding with another poster).
People can feel more attached to other countries or nationalities, that is their choice, but it doesn’t change the fact of their place of birth.
I was simply saying your seemingly rabid denial that Blair is anyway Scottish, does seem strangely in the same ballpark as Nick Griffin denying those of say Indian heritage, but born and live in the UK, as not somehow British (even if they themselves deem more connection with the Indian subcontinental). It is their choice to say they feel more connection there, and feel more Indian / Pakistani rather than the British, but technically they are still British.
274. “You didn’t say ‘particularly’ Scottish, you said wasn’t Scottish.”
Oh well, if precise historical accuracy is being demanded of me, I think what I actually said was “I try to believe three impossible things before breakfast, but even I can’t imagine Tony Blair is a Scotsman”. (Which would have been a better line if I hadn’t got the quotation wrong - it’s actually six impossible things before breakfast!)
Your obsession with place of birth as the main determiner of nationality is very silly, and doesn’t stand up to more than a few seconds of scrutiny. By your standard, Boris Johnson is not English, nor British…he’s American. Need I say more? There are countless examples like that.
Am I touchy about Blair being used as an example of there being too many Scots in positions of power? Others can judge that - from my perspective I’m just keen to point out that it’s quite simply a false and distorting claim, because Blair is essentially English. To go back to the gender analogy, it would be a bit like saying that, contrary to appearances, there are in fact still six women in the Cabinet - because Douglas Alexander and Alan Johnson have vaguely high-pitched voices and are in touch with their feminine side.
Final observation - there was an exchange the other day about the ‘reductio ad Hitlerum’. We now seem to be moving depressingly fast onto the ‘reductio ad Griffinum’.
I knew you would bring up Boris, and yes technically he is a yank, he can run for POTUS!
You do seem to be doing your nut of the fact Blair was born in Scotland and went to school there, as I said, makes no difference to me. Also, there may well be a certain amount of cross wires, you seem to be taking serious offence that Blair is anyway of Scottish nationality, when I originally was using the term Scottish to refer to Scottish born.
But just for you, I will correct my statement,
It is a fact that there was a large number of Scottish BORN or Scottish educated people in high ranking positions under Blair.
276. Oracle, if you can’t see the difference between someone on a political discussion forum taking issue with something you said, and that person ‘doing their nut’, I would suggest you really need to get out more. What you said in the rest of your post is still problematical, but I won’t say any more on the matter because at this rate you’ll try to have me sectioned under the Mental Health Act.
BTW, your argument about gender and Wee Dougie and Postman Pat, is kinda of silly and proves my point to a certain extent. Regardless of how they sound and how much they are in touch with their feminine side, they are still male, as they were born that way.
Now, lets say, they have a sex change operation, and describe themselves as women, that fine with me, the same way as somebody regarding their nationality. But it still doesn’t blank out they were born men, that is just the fact of the matter. Technically they were born that way, even if they never felt properly a male.
277 - Regarding “doing your nut”, its called a turn of phase, but you have brought you took real exception at the time, and then 7-8hrs later you have come back to it again. I actually had completely forgotten it, as it really wasn’t that important, as I said I was just correcting another poster who said Scots “dominated” cabinet under Brown, rather than he obviously meant Blair.
JohnLoony@271:
Palin is at around 10% on Intrade for the Republican nomination for 2012.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=republican
She has the dedicated support of a decent chunk of Republican primary voters, who still love her despite Katie Couric, Troupergate, the Vanity Fair piece, etc etc etc. She could still be taken down by whatever scandal may have caused her resignation, but presumably most of the people who still like her will think that whatever it is is just a conspiracy by the Liberal media / politically-motivated prosecutors, so she should be OK as long as she can stay out of prison.
On its own their support wouldn’t be enough to win her the nomination, so she needs most of the Wingnut vote to herself, and the non-Wingnut vote to be split among a couple of different candidates. Also she needs to survive being attacked by Republicans, which will be harder for her than being attacked by Democrats. But she has a couple of years to practice.
All in all, it feels like about a 1 in 10 chance of winning the Republican nomination, and assuming she gets that maybe 1 in 4 chance of beating Obama? So 40/1 for next President.
279 (cont) I actually don’t even remember mentioning anything about Blair as a Scot when I made my original post on this matter. You took exception to my correction post and made a comment specifically regarding Old Tone and that somehow my correction post was worthless.
279. Sigh. Oracle, would you please read my post 266 again. Even just the first sentence. I’d have thought it should be blindingly obvious to anyone that the reason I went out of my way to rebut your comment after seven hours was the fact that you had bizarrely compared me to Nick Griffin. Perhaps you think comparing someone to a neo-Nazi is a routine debating point that should be water off a duck’s back - if so, we’ll have to part company on that point.
281. Your ‘correction’ was that the term “Scottish mafia” referred to the Blair period, and the number of people in his administration who were Scots or educated in Scotland. My very brief retort (sorry, lengthy hissy fit) was that your point lost its credibility with the last three words. If it needs to be clarified, I was suggesting that the Scottish influence in an administration can only be measured by the number of actual Scots in it. Not by the number of Englishmen who a) were educated in Scotland, b) have a Scottish surname, or c) once spent a long weekend in Aberdour when they were six.
Well for somebody not having a “hissy fit” you are still posting about it at nearly 4am! I am doing research, which I choose to conduct at night, what’s your excuse?
As for the Griffin comparison, just look at your post,
You said
1) Blair he doesn’t sound Scottish. so isn’t a Scot - Griffin would point out certain people and say they can’t be British, they don’t look and sound British.
2) He only lived in Scotland until he left school, and then went to college and work in England, so not Scot - Griffin has some equally arbitrary if they have only lived in Britain for x year, they aren’t British, they must have lived here since whatever year he picks out of his hat.
3) Blair says he feels English - Griffin would point out that many British Asians say they feel Indian or Pakistani first and foremost.
None of the 3 points highlighted, exclude Blair from being described as a Scot, in the same way as somebody of Indian heritage, born in the UK, educated here, who then chooses to go to the US for college then work, couldn’t be described (and technically speaking is) British.
I am clearly not trying to say you are some racist nutjob like Griffin, but your argument against Blair every being referred to as a Scot (in any sense) has some similar logic to Griffin Britishness test.
3 (addition) Meant to say Griffin would point out British Asians, who say they feel Pakistani or Indian first and foremost, and that excludes them from ever being British. When many say, my heritage is the Indian subcontinent, but I am British too. How many British Asians do you see fail the stupid Tebbit test by supporting India or Pakistan in the cricket, but then you will see they support England in the football.
Just wondering, is Andy Murray not a Scot either? I believe he left Scotland at a young age and now lives in England and works all over the world.
That’s superb. One person who’s posting on an internet forum at 4am accusing someone else of being strange for…posting on an internet forum at 4am. Well done for spotting your gaffe so quickly, but I have to say I’ve seen better recoveries. The next time I catch the kids from next door in my back garden, and they look like a rabbit caught in the headlights while they’re trying to dream up a plausible excuse, I’ll just say to them “research, lads?”
This is getting very tedious, but seeing as you still appear to believe that my comment about Blair is comparable to the viewpoint of a fascist, here goes -
1) I went out of my way to say that Blair’s accent is a trivial matter, and far less important than his self-identification. However, accent isn’t a complete irrelevance, because it usually reflects where an individual has spent most of their life, and in particular their formative years. In the case of Blair, that place is England.
2) That would be a better argument if I was telling a self-identifying Scot that he or she couldn’t be Scottish however they felt inside. If I ever find myself doing that, I’ll let you know, and you’ll have my full permission to label me a neo-Nazi.
3) I presume you are referring to people who define themselves as Indian or Pakistani but who also wish to be British. That analogy would only work if Blair had said “I am both Scottish and English”. He did not.
Now does that answer your questions, or can I assist you any further with your ‘research’?
286. Ah, it seems I can indeed help you further with your research. Andy Murray can call himself whatever he likes as far as I’m concerned (I believe he has an English grandmother), but from memory the facts are these - he was born in Scotland, lived there until he was fourteen or so, then was based in Spain for several years. His primary residence is now in London, and he also has a home in Miami. He is now twenty-two. So, to me, yes he is Scottish, although it’s intriguing that the non-Scottish tinge to his accent is American rather than English!
“Palin attorney warns press on ‘defamatory material’”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/24521.html
-re: rumors of federal indictment over Wasilla sports center.