Guest slot: Is this the moment for Gordon to shine?
July 17th, 2009
HenryG asks: “Could Swine Flu Save the PM?”
The rapidly increasing numbers of people infected with swine flu will have a huge impact on the UK in the next year. Forecasts of up to 66,000 swine flu deaths this Christmas will have a devastating impact on communities, public services and also the economy. The UK Government is recognised to have some of the best preparations in the world and the most plentiful arrangements for tamiflu.
By no means am I a scientist, but it strikes me that the threat of a pandemic flu crisis could have a uncertain impact on how people view the health service, authority and the needs of their own family. For many who have grown up in relative peace and prosperity this will be utterly destabilising. Surely this will eventually have a political consequence on polling?
Many remember Gordon’s firm handling of the start of his premiership as he deftly dealt with a series of difficult events including terrorist attacks in Glasgow and London, floods across England and another bout of foot and mouth disease. He temporarily cultivated a ‘father of the nation’ figure and benefited with the biggest poll leads over the Conservatives since before the Iraq war. Could this mood be revived as the threat of swine flu increases?
We all remember the worries about foot and mouth disease which delayed the 2005 general election by a month. This will be many, many times worse. Senior Government Ministers then were concerned about the visual impact of funeral pyres.
Well I understand the ministers of the cloth are now being written to about the potential of mass burials should swine flu reach worse case scenarious projects. Imagine the trauma that this will have. If this is expected to peak in the autumn then surely it will rule out a general election?
The potential rise of the NHS up there with the economy as the top issue of concern could tilt matters more in Labour’s favour. It is one of the few areas that Labour has traditionally led the Conservatives on.
The psychology of it all could be interesting. Once again Gordon Brown will be needed to provide authority and reassurance. If he succeeds then who knows what impact this could have politically for his fortunes and that of the Government. The collapse of Lehman Brothers last year saved Brown during the conference season attack on his leadership from within the Labour Party. This may well firm up his position again.
I can’t help feel that David Cameron is a PM for when times are good and may not be home and dry if this prolonged health crisis develops as many fear. The politics of this issue could be quite unpredictable and people may well ‘cling to nurse for fear of something worse’. In these dire circumstances could Gordon Brown resurrect his ability to thrive in a crisis? If he can, then he may well have one last reasonable opportunity to gain the confidence of the nation at the ballot box.
Henry G Manson is a long-standing PB regular and Labour activist
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Yes
I disagree Henry. The reason things seemed so positive for Brown two year ago is that he was going through his honeymoon and there was still the novelty of him being PM not Tony.
We’ve learned so much more about him since then and if there’s one sniff that he’s using this for party political advantage then he’s finished.
Gordon cannot help but being the front man - a role he is uniquely equipped not to do.
Too many ifs there -
IF swine flu is utterly devastating
IF Gordon doesn’t %*&$ it up like he has everything else
IF the public forget how much he has messed up
IF the public also expect similar crises in the years ahead
IF the public don’t think David Cameron would have done just as well
Then Labour might just deny the Conservatives a working majority.
No! People will either be too ill to care what Brown is doing, or too scared about not becoming ill to care what Brown is doing.
And thats supposing the NHS copes with the Flu pandemic. Should the NHS service fall apart under the strain, after all the money Labour have pumped in, the political fallout for Brown will be toxic.
There is no good news in Swine Flu for Brown/Labour I’m afraid.
Oh and in any case we’ll be well over the worst of Swine Flu when the election is called in April. The peak of infection/deaths will probably come around Christmas/New Year.
Maybe… but I really doubt it.
Swine flu is a known factor right now. The scare stories have been circulating for weeks.
Also, my back of the envelope calculation on the previous thread suggests that swine flu will cost about 0.5% of annual GDP in lost productivity - right in Q4, when Labour needs growth most in order for the numbers to come through in time for a general election.
Back when we had floods, foot/mouth, and the world’s most incompetent terrorists, Gordon Brown as leader was a new concept. His lack of polish looked good compared to the departing Blair.
Now the public have had several chances to discover the content of Brown’s character. They know who he is. They know just how immoral and incompetent he really is. And after expenses, no politician will engender trust, even in a crisis.
If anyone gets the credit for a ‘good swine flu war’ it will be Sir Liam Donaldson.
You are right that widespread swine flu will kill off an autumn election for good though.
If Cameron is a PM for when times are good, Labour is guaranteed to win the next election regardless of the effects of swine flu.
By the way, whatever happened to that Mexican kid who started this? Naughty naughty! No dessert for you, young man.
It won’t save Brown ,but he may use it as an excuse to delay the election.
Infact the way infection is spreading the peak could come even earlier than Christmas. Perhaps as early as November?
Though my suspicion is that with the schools breaking up we should see a lull in cases through August, followed by a new wave starting in September and peaking around Xmas.
Just a point on the floods, would be interesting to know what people now think of Gordo / government handling, especially those that were directly effected. I don’t think the polling would be positive some how.
I personally believe his poll ratings at the time were more to do with “Not Tony” effect, than necessarily his “father of the nation” act (which I don’t believe we will be able to pull off again, even if some people considered it worked the first time around).
I can’t see swine flu being positive for Labour. Say they handle it ok -> well (big ask given the current personnel), people aren’t going to forget the rising unemployment, knackered economy, etc, etc, etc. If NHS can’t cope, paper full of stories of people not getting anti-virals, etc, etc, it will be just more punishment for Labour at the polls.
8. Don’t think so. We’ll be well over the worst by next spring.
This is wishful thinking on the author’s part. Gordon Brown is just too unappealing. They say that the 1st rule for a successful salesman is that the customer can like and trust you. If you can gain those, then you stand a chance of a successful sale which entails a range of additional skills. The problem for poor old Gordon is that people neither like him or trust him.
Brown’s handling of Foot and Mouth, like Blair’s handling before him, was atrocious. More so given that the source was a government lab. The same with the flooding. Saying you are doing something is not the same as actually doing it and the government’s response to both of those crisis was pathetic.
The only thing Brown sees when a crisis comes along is another way of increasing state control and tightening the noose around our necks.
Wonder if the News International titles will give Gordo / government the benefit of the doubt on any stories that could possibly point fingers at the government over Piggy Flu?
Henry G Manson is a long-standing PB regular and Labour activist.
Ahh. That explains it.
Your usual articles don’t contain such an unlikely fantasy element.
Worst. Article. Ever.
I expect SO much more from this free blog!
And if deaths in Scotland are proportionately less than in the rest of the UK, that is absolute proof that he favours Scotland over England!
Naturally if the Scottish death rate is higher, then he has cynically manipulated the virus to discredit the Scottish government.
“I can’t help feel that David Cameron is a PM for when times are good and may not be home and dry if this prolonged health crisis develops as many fear. The politics of this issue could be quite unpredictable and people may well ‘cling to nurse for fear of something worse’.”
HenryG, I totally disagree with you on this. Cling to nurse? Only when she or he provides the leadership needed, if that doesn’t happen, then the patient looks elsewhere. That is why government’s led by a poor PM loses a GE. At every major political point in the last 2 years, Cameron has risen to the challenge and delivered within his party and to the electorate. Brown on the other hand has not. Where Cameron shows real leadership, Brown tries to hide and spin. Just look at the first few weeks of the expenses scandal.
16
‘Cling to nurse?’
Brown more of an Undertaker than a nurse?
Regardless of how many UK citizens die at home or abroad there are now no circumstances where Gordon Brown will be PM for more than another year.
More people die from regular flu than from the current strain of H1N1 - the mortality rates are being hidden in all the tabloid panic
The reality of the situation will eventually out
Do not think so. At that time Brown succeeded, in the sense that he was seen as father figure, for the fact that the press and most people gave him the benefit of doubt because he had just become prime minister. That will not happen this time, if something goes wrong, people will look to see his mistakes not his success(if such thing is possible!).
If there is something that the Government have not done / do not do well or well enough regarding it’s response to swine flu then the opposite could be the case, it will literally be the end of Labour.
So, if there is a possible ‘positive’ for GB, there is, by defination, whopping great negatives are just as likely…
I hope none of these things happen but;
Delays over vacinations / supply chain / questions of lack of preparation (however unfair).
Anger over the organisation of vacinations / stories of people (of all ages) dying because they didn’t get the injections in time.
Ability of our Hospitals to cope tested beyond capability leading to very sick people being turned away or put in temporary areas etc.
NHS staff not given vacinations in time leading to a shortage of front line staff, adding the all of the above.
All of this to be played out in the media who will fuel it all to such an extent that D-Notices have to be ordered from the bunker.
Hopefully, this is all far-fetched nonsense of course. The virus seems, in most people, to knock them off their feet for a few days at home and then you’re pretty much back to normal.
19.That point was apparently being made by the Scottish government today.
19 - Nelson reported in the Speccy Blog the other day that the Department of Health couldn’t tell him how many die from normal flu each year.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5183388/behind-the-swine-flu-panic.thtml
13: ‘More so given that the source was a government lab’
And let’s not forget that at the time a mysterious source in the government (I think we can now safely speculate it was McBride) tried to smear the neighbouring private laboratory at Pirbright as being responsible.
Foot and mouth was 2001, not 2005.
What are the NHS guidlines for informing a muslim that they have swine flu?
Oracle-Nothing on the Telegraph yet.
More sobering commentary from the Director of the Congressional Budget Office:
“Under current law, the federal budget is on an unsustainable path, because federal debt will continue to grow much faster than the economy over the long run.
Although great uncertainty surrounds long-term fiscal projections, rising costs for health care and the aging of the population will cause federal spending to increase rapidly under any plausible scenario for current law. Unless revenues increase just as rapidly, the rise in spending will produce growing budget deficits.
Large budget deficits would reduce national saving, leading to more borrowing from abroad and less domestic investment, which in turn would depress economic growth in the United States. Over time, accumulating debt would cause substantial harm to the economy. The following chart shows our projection of federal debt relative to GDP under the two scenarios we modeled [chart found in link].
Keeping deficits and debt from reaching these levels would require increasing revenues significantly as a share of GDP, decreasing projected spending sharply, or some combination of the two.”
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=328
So, we have three choices: destroy the economy through budget deficits, drastically cut spending, or drastically increase taxes.
Well, we know that the Dems have no inclination to cut spending, so it will come down to tax increases chasing deficits in an attempt to sustain growing spending. And given that Obama is hellbent on enacting his big-spending agenda ASAP and the leaders of Congress are just as determined to run as far to the left as the size of their caucus will allow, we’re heading for a real trainwreck.
Two possible outcomes present themselves: 1) the Dems will manage to enact most of their agenda, which will financially hobble the country indefinitely through deficits plus big tax increases, or 2) they will overreach and fail to enact their agenda. Neither is likely to be a happy set of circumstances.
“Is this the moment for Gordon to shine?”? How can poo shine?
However, GB managed to appear statesmanlike during the financial crisis last autumn and reduced the gap in the polls. It took a while for the population / the punditocracy to figure out the paucity of his solutions. So is there not a possibility that the scenario outlined by HenryG may come about even for a short duration?
31 - LOL
32
The general public didn’t entirely grasp the complexities of the financial crisis nor what was the best way to handle it. The more so given that solutions to financial problems take time to work through the system and people are willing to at least give the benefit of the doubt as they await results.
In the foot and mouth, flooding and now swine flu the consequences are far more immediate and people do not believe they can wait for results. They expect practical action and solutions straight away. When those solutions do not appear instantly and people are dying then, rightly or wrongly, the government gets the immediate blame.
Bear in mind that I am not instinctive critical of the repsonse to this particular crisis. I was one of those that more than two months ago - when the first news of Swine Flu wasa developing - said on here that I was impressed with the way in which the stocks of tamiflu and other antivirals had been gathered given that only 2 years ago we were considered to be very ill prepared.
I for one would be happy to accept good work done by this government on this matter if it was deserved and it saved lives. Nothing is more important than saving lives, certainly not political point scoring.
I repeat what I said earlier that Gordon deserves no credit for his actions over the floods and foot and mouth. But so far my presonal opinion is that the givernment does indeed seem to have peformed very well over Swine Flu. Doesn’t change what I think of them at all but credit where credit is due.
Sky have donea poll on Afghanistan.. some intersing comments if you click the link and read the report. http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Afghanistan-More-Than-Half-of-Britons-Still-Support-The-War-a-Sky-News-Panel-Survey-Reveals/Article/200907315339374?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15339374_Afghanistan%3A_More_Than_Half_of_Britons_Still_Support_The_War%2C_a_Sky_News_Panel_Survey_Reveals
Makes bad reading for Gordon, I personally think people have already made their mind up about him, can’t see anyway he can bounce his way out of this.
Off topic - More waste.
A catalogue of failings by ministers and a Government quango led to dozens of projects being approved even though money had run out, it was claimed.
In some cases, the Learning and Skills Council “bigged up” college building schemes, turning one £8m refurbishment into a dramatic £175m redevelopment.
But in December last year it “suddenly dawned on” senior management that the number of approved programmes far exceeded the budget.
….
In a report published today(FRI), MPs called on the Government to urgently review the operation of all quangos. (echos of Dave ?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/5843303/Millions-wasted-in-college-building-fiasco.html
Swine flu didn’t do much for Gerald Ford.
More on the same story..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8152714.stm
One factor that hasn’t emerged in this discussion so far is the huge growth in public cynicism that has taken place since the original Brown honeymoon. I don’t think many people now believe a word he says. They’re not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, even when there is some doubt. The present issue is a case in point. Is the sudden Government change of tack a genuine reflection of growing anxiety about swine flu or is it just manipulation of the timing of announcements in order to bury bad news elsewhere? Or is that they’ve known all along that it was going to be bad but have tried to gloss it over to limit electoral damage? Or is it that there’s a catastrophe coming up that we don’t know about yet that they want us not to notice because we’re all too busy worrying about swine flu? Who knows? I suspect that, if Brown announced that the sun will continue to rise at dawn under a Labour government, some people wouldn’t now believe him. There’s no coming back from where he is now.
What’s worrying me more is the thought that there are now so many really dire situations facing us that there may be no coming back for the country, either.
S&S, interesting post. Some good facts & arguments as per your usual. Not that I buy all or even most of it, you understand. Mainly because I don’t think trainwreck is inevitable.
Obama may be turn out to be Dudley Dooright and untie Sweet Polly (a situation created by Snidely Wiplash aka Bush Cheney) before the train runs her over.
BTW, saw this bumpersticker yesterday:
“NOBAMA”
Keep up the good work! Think it might pay off . . . just not in the manner intended . . .
18, Christina - “cling to nurse?”
May I? Please, am truly in need of TLC!
With his record, Gordon will be blamed for swine flu.
11 - GIN - “We’ll be well over the worst by next spring.”
Not if our beloved Leader is in charge. Ask the hundreds of people still in temporary accommodation after the floods in Hull two years ago.
Off topic ( again sorry ) - I find it ironic that July’s pic on the offical RAF calendar is one of a Chinook ..
http://www.davidrowlands.co.uk/gallery/gal_detail.asp?varPaintCode=079
39- Well, I didn’t imagine that I could win you over quite yet!
I’m interested in your cryptic statement… so how will my efforts pay off?! I’d love to know!
On a lighter note, here’s the latest knee-slapper from good ol’ Joe:
“Vice President Joe Biden told people attending an AARP town hall meeting that unless the Democrat-supported health care plan becomes law the nation will go bankrupt and that the only way to avoid that fate is for the government to spend more money…
“We’re going to go bankrupt as a nation,” Biden said.
“Now, people when I say that look at me and say, ‘What are you talking about, Joe? You’re telling me we have to go spend money to keep from going bankrupt?’” Biden said. “The answer is yes, that’s what I’m telling you.””
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=51162
Hmmmm… but the Congressional Budget Office says the Dems’ healthcare reform bill will cost us even more than we’re spending already, so how will that save us from bankruptcy? I’m sure we’ll all still be having a chuckle over this one when we’re roasting rats on a stick over burning tires while reclining under the freeway overpass.
Dannatt isn’t going to go quietly!
The head of the UK Army has said better equipment is needed to protect troops from roadside bombs in Afghanistan.
General Sir Richard Dannatt told the BBC troops “needed more” and added that he would be compiling a shopping list of what was required.
Gordon Brown has repeatedly insisted the Army has enough equipment and denied claims of a helicopter shortage.
The general’s comments will be seen as careful “parting shots”, says the BBC’s defence correspondent Caroline Wyatt.
Nokia time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8155101.stm
@21 Simon, couldn’t agree more.
Why is it that the media are carefully not pointing out that “swine” flu is LESS dangerous than “normal” flu?
Right now every death allegedly from swine flu is a national calamity, while routine deaths from normal flu are completely ignored. It’s almost as if the “crisis” is being engineered from the Brownbunker, ready for the Supreme Leader to step in. No , what an unworthy thing to think about our calm, capable, competent Government…
47
The point that I think needs to be made is that although thousands of people die of flu each year, those deaths are in the winter during the main flu season. The problem now is that we are seeing those sorts of rates of infection during the summer when normally rates are close to zero.
This implies that once we do get into the normal flu season we will see death rates soar.
Whilst I don’t believe the situation merits the sort of panic we have been seeing in the press, it is certainly not a case of business as usual and unfortuantely we are going to see people die who would otherwise not have. The BBC report mentions wards filled with children who have the disease. That is surely not something that can be ignored.
46. Alternatively you could conclude that “Swine Flu Crisis” sells more papers than “Nothing to worry about”. There’s no need to see conspiracies in media sensationalising things.
9 parts wishful thinking and 1 part possibility I think.
Of course if it gets really bad then party politics will go out of the window (especially if Brown gets his way, as it’s one of his favourite lines). Then come the election people will just shrug and say “thanks, YOU DID WHAT WAS EXPECTED OF A GOVERNMENT, NOTHING MORE, time for a change”.
If, over the coming weeks, we have a big issue over the lack of (say) respirators in hospitals, then it will trigger the question “so where has all the money been spent, if we don’t have enough basic kit to kep our kids alive?”. Given how this will resonate with the current issue over lack of helicopters, hard to see how it makes Gordon “shine”.
(The tin-foil part of me wonders whether the Govt. is expecting this to be an issue in a pandemic - and is is one reason why Gordon is so touchy about the helicopter issue. Expect to hear the refrain of “we have provided all of the
helicoptersrespiratory equipment which theArmyhosptials have asked us to supply… Not Our Fault…)44, S&S - Reckon Veep is arguing that uncontrolled health care costs will bankrupt feds; note that they have been playing havoc with state budgets for years.
As for my own cripticism, believe that GOP urge to be the No Party is NOT a sound strategy.
IF we are going a modern dress reenactment of the 1930s, then “NOBAMA” is reminisent of the way that Republicans tried to demonize “That Man” in the White House from 1933 forward.
Sure, they convinced themselves. Or rather, ghettoized the Grand Old Party, which helped keep it out of the Presidency for 20 years (beating the Old Labour record) until they hitched their wagon to a previously apolitical war hero, Ike.
So think that “NOBAMA” is good news for the Democrats.
Just a theory.
66,000 deaths (current worse case scenario) is hardly the black death!
And, as usual, all this stuff about the Uk being ‘recognised’ as being best prepared is Govt propaganda. Frankly, if we’re well prepared then some countries are really in trouble!
44 - IF you must roast rats on a stick (is this Garden State comfort food?) then would suggest GM stock certificates over old tires.
The fumes of the latter being worse than the rot of the former!
My culinary suggestion reflects my West Virginia upbringing: fresh road kill.
Actually, if we’re talking deer (almost as plentiful as people in today’s WV) then a pickup truck’s as good as a rifle.
Heck, over the years my own Daddy Dearest bagged two of the critters . . . and never fired a shot!
BTW, the 2009 Governor’s races in S&S’s balliwick of New Jersey and in Virginia should provide a practical test of Obama’s ongoing popularity and coatails.
Both of these gubernatorial contests are shapping up to be real humdingers.
In New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine is on the ropes, while NJ GOPers took S&S’s advice and shunned a wingnut in favor of a “realo” Republican, former US Persecutor (sp?) Chris Christie.
In Virginia, which is an open seat race (goverors of the Old Dominion being limited to one term) the Democrats nominated there own “realo” versus a reasonably moderate Republican. Four years ago these gentleman squared off in the race for state Attorney General, and the Republican won by a wisker.
In both states, Obama could prove to be the X factor. Question is, which way - yea or nay?
My guess is the former, but it’s hardly a done deal!
Speaking of the flu, remember a few years back when the Bush administration (mis)managed to have next to no influenza vacine available? That was the year it was virtually impossible to get a flu shot if you weren’t a codger or an invalid already. Ended up coming down with the crud. Certainly heightened my personal appreciation for the Bush-Cheney administration!
Can hear the defibulator buzzing from an undisclosed location! Glad I could brighten his day - figure that sickening a pointy-headed liberal must be near as much fun as watching those waterboarding tapes . . .
This was mentioned on QT last night. Given the Billions of pounds thrown at the NHS over the last 12 years, if we are not the best prepared country in the world Gordo will not be thanked.
53
Well since the claims that we are the best prepared (along with France) come from international bodies outside the British Government I think that just for once you cannot claim it is simply propaganda. And yes I do suspect that preparation in most countries is frankly bloody awful.
The assertion that “Many remember Gordon’s firm handling of the start of his premiership as he deftly dealt with a series of difficult events including terrorist attacks in Glasgow and London, floods across England and another bout of foot and mouth disease. He temporarily cultivated a ‘father of the nation’ figure and benefited with the biggest poll leads over the Conservatives since before the Iraq war” is nonsense.
All he did was swan about and get his picture in the papers.
But then the clue to all this waffle is here: “Henry G Manson is a long-standing PB regular and Labour activist”
On topic, it’s worth considering possiblity - not huge, but more than zero - that HGM might have a point about current HMG.
For example IF the Brown administation decided to go for broke and concentrate massive resources on the swine flue threat. Just to ensure that there would be ONE shining success, and in an area much hyped by the press and obsessed over by many voters.
Somewhere in his biographical writings, Winston Churhill said that when he took his Sandhurst entrance exam (think that was it) one of the tasks on the test was to draw a map of a country chosen by the examiners. WC says that he figured he’d never be able to master the globe (ha!) So instead he decided to put all his eggs in one basket, and concentrate on just one country; he picked New Zealand. And low and behold, that was the country he was tested on - and he aced it.
Sounds a tad unlikely to me - no slur on WC to say that his autobiography (like his history) ain’t always totally reliable when it comes to dull detail.
But it’s a great tactic IF it works.
The Telegraph story is online now.. someone asked for it on previous thread..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/5848164/Labour-ministers-plan-reputation-trashing-of-Army-chief-General-Sir-Richard-Dannatt.html
“swine flue threat” = danger that flying pig might get stuck in your chimney.
An interesting idea, dismissed out of hand by those who you could have predicted in advance would dismiss it out of hand. It certainly deserves an airing: Gordon Brown has certainly performed better in foul weather than in good times. I’m not sure that swine flu is visual enough for him to benefit (no floods to visit) or obviously enough requiring Prime Ministerial action for him to benefit (failing banks). I don’t rule this possibility out completely, but it does not represent my expectation.
“Father of the nation”
Now that’s a new one on me!
When was that then?
And I thought the helicopter/respirator analogy is spot on.
57 - Well we’ll see. I suspect that the difference between “well-prepared” and “best prepared” is quite an important distinction if the Govt were to get any credit.
I don’t think it’s only how the actual pandemic is handled; at time of writing that looks fairly good. I’ve been involved with several mass vaccination campaigns, and the structure and experience is there to d it. Likewise the handing out of anti-virals, if necessary, and general advice.
What will be as important is ho the economic effects are handled. How, for example, are the transport systems going to cope with a significant sickness rate? Or Parliament itself, for that matter?
Having said that, I wonder if this is going to be the Millenium Bug (remember that) all over again! Either because it wasn’t really a problem, or because of the planning and forethought, the expected disaster didn’t happen.
I think the opposite. As more people start to get symptoms, real or not, and head to their GP and then get passed to the “help line” (or whatever we get in “Scawtland” and where the system will no doubt fall down due to demand then people will realise that New Labour can’t organise anything except spin.
58. Whether it was merited at the time or not, his poll rating did rise as a result of being seen able to handle it all. Now it may well have been that expectations were so low and that he had some kind of blank canvass as the new PM which he no longer has.
On other points, it could well be that swine flu become an enormous political as well as health issue in the next six months - up there with the recession. Very soon everyone will know someone personally who has swine flu. To insist that in no circumstances could this have it a political impact is crazy.
I think there’s enough to suggest that it could benefit the Labour Government more than the Conservatives and Brown more than Cameron. Whether it’s enough for Brown who knows. Here are the four key questions for me and other political punters:
So could swine flu have an impact on general election timing? It’s got to. Autumn 09 looks out.
Will it shore up Brown’s position ahead of a leadership challenge? It could very well do.
Will it mean that Labour win the next election? Probably not, but it could create some poll turbulence and move closer to hung parliament territory
Could it change the media narrative in the coming month? Quite easily.
BTW vaguely on topic, did anyone comment on this yesterday?
• SNP ministers have written to the Treasury to say they cannot meet the cost of vaccinating all Scots against swine flu because they have run out of money.
John Swinney, the Scottish finance minister, has told Whitehall that he had allocated his £11.2 billion health budget elsewhere. As well as funding free care for the elderly, a programme inherited from the previous administration, SNP ministers have said they will phase out prescription charges.
I think the problem with this kind of thing for Brown is that it’s only a success for him if the media decide to tell it as a success for him. If they decide they want to write a story about government failure, they’re always going to be able to find a government incompetence story about a mis-delivered consignment of face-masks in Saffron Waldon or whatever. And this apart from media reports, voters have very little way of telling the difference between a brilliant government and a useless one; Even if the government was brilliant a bunch of people would still die, and even if it was useless most people still wouldn’t.
So the question we should be asking is: What would it take for the media to want to write nice things about the government?
I do actually think we are, thankfully, better prepared than a lot of countries. What concerns me is the disparity, between what the government has said and what is reported elsewhere, in respect of timelines on delivery of a vaccine. Weren’t we told August/ September yet there are reports that the vaccine is ’slow growing’ so the amount required won’t be there for a good while yet.
65 One way in which that Swine Flu could change the Govt’s prospects is if there is such a widespread impact on economy activity through illness that its hoped-for green shoots of recovery simply don’t show before the next election.
Another is if it kills lots of elderly Tory voters…
This is the most bizarre article for a long while on PB.C. Flu to save GB - only if DC catches it - bad!
65. As punters we also have to consider the alternative view. It’s entirely possible that it could benefit Cameron and the Tories more than Labour.
Who would have predicted that the expenses scandal, with all of the Tory grandees, 2nd jobs, moats, etc. would end up with Cameron ahead?
The helicopter debacle is a lose for the government, not necessarily because they got it wrong but because they screwed up the media management. The biggest story from yesterday was “Gordo doesn’t answer questions from committee”.
There is every chance swine flu will play the same way with the media and public
69. I think it could have a devastating impact on small businesses and some public services.
MAJOR PROBLEM…What IF Brown gets the disease!!
The only concern I have is that this undemocratic government may well use this ‘pandemic’ to bring the Civil Contingencies Act into operation and suspend for two/three years the general election!
What is more scary. A Pandemic or three more years of this Government?
Interesting article on vaccine production ….
In particular..
More important, because the vaccine will be produced in Canada, Canadians will not have to fight other countries to guarantee their supply.
The U.S. and Britain are on much less solid ground, because they do not produce enough vaccine to meet their own needs. The U.S., for instance, has the ability to make just 20 per cent of its domestic requirements, and relies on European countries for the rest. And all of Britain’s vaccines are made abroad.
If a pandemic hit, it is possible that countries with vaccine production facilities would insist that their own citizens get inoculated before any vaccine exits their borders. International contract law does not supersede any government’s ability to stop goods from being exported.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canada-will-have-enough-vaccines-to-share/article1221498/
That last sentence is a bit chilling.
58 GeoffH
Henry is a respected contributor of long standing, as you know. His betting advice is generally very good, as you may not know.
If you don’t agree with, attack the arguments, not the man.
65 - I really do think you overestimate the effects of “knowing someone with swine flu”. I know people with “flu like symptoms” (nobody is a confirmed case any more until they get really ill/die) and there is no sense in the office that they are on the verge of death.
I also seriously doubt the extent to which the govt is going to get credit, however sensible, for a current protocol that amounts to “don’t go and see your doctor, maybe you’ll be given some tamiflu, and stay at home until you’re better”.
The only real circumstances where i can foresee potential political gain is if the thing turns really nasty worldwide, but we escape unscathed because of a national vaccination programme unavailable elsewhere.
On Thread - What a load of Rubbish!!
75 - But the problem with that scenario is that we’ll probably be deluged with people from abroad turning up to get their shots!
70. It is indeed! But it’s something I’ve been thinking over the last couple of days and I thought it was worth airing. It pays to swim against the tide sometimes.
69 From what I hear, MM, I understand the young are at greater risk. Jack W and me should be OK.
69 - The point about pandemic flu is that it is supposed to be the young who are most at risk, not the elderly.
Sorry Henry but your scenario is just too unlikely.
Handling the swine flu outbreak isn’t a PMish photo opportunity unless he’s planning on touring hospital wards like Prince Charles.
If lots of people die, then the populace aren’t going to say well done PM for having great plans that didn’t stop it - unlike Mexico apparently where its fizzled out.
Health is like transport in the winter - you don’t get PR points for having the roads gritted.
This will not cause poll turbulence unless a disproportionate number who die were planning on voting Tory.
On timing however then yes it could scupper an autumn election/leadership bid as it would look terribly out of touch.
66
“Very soon everyone will know someone personally who has swine flu.”
Well beyond that stage now personally. Almost all the senior schools in my area are now reporting cases and half a dozen businesses I deal with have people down with it including two people I know who are hospitalised.
At a rough guess I would say that about 2 dozen people I know or have dealings with on a business level are now either down with Swine Flu or recovering. None of them apart from the two mentioned are particularly serious but all enough to keep them off work.
80. “it could scupper an autumn election/leadership bid as it would look terribly out of touch.”
Which is good news for Gordo, bad news for the Labour party. Going early remains their best bet IMO.
78 Serves the young right, for not voting…
I look forward to the new regime, where laws are passed allowing any elderly person to legitimately tazer a young hoody “just for a larf…”
62 “An interesting idea, dismissed out of hand by those who you could have predicted in advance would dismiss it out of hand. It certainly deserves an airing…”
Agreed, Antifrank.
I don’t think it is likely to be a game changer on the political betting markets, apart from the date related ones, but it’s a characteristically thoughtful and interesting piece, and well worth reflecting on from a number of viewpoints.
Thanks Henry.
The government’s plans for handling of the disease have already failed. Indeed, one person involved in putting those plans into operation has admitted to me that we would have been in no worse a position if the government had done nothing whatsoever.
The release of the latest planning estimates suggest that they now know their actions will be broadly ineffective. The news broadcasts are openly saying that the predicted level of deaths is only lower because the strain of flu is milder than had been feared.
That said, I suspect that there is some element of getting the higher figure (65,000) out into the public arena so that the authorities can claim they have saved the day.
Henry,
Desperate, but still great comedy. Have you thought about approaching the BBC apparently they need some new writers?
I’d have thought a major outbreak here would also have a devastating impact on tourism just as the season is in full swing.
One other point, why are we being hit ’so hard’ compared to the US?
83
Me and Jack could have a ball in this Brave New World, MM!
Perhaps it will also alter the balance on contributions on PB. Grumpy Old Men of the world, unite!
“Many remember Gordon’s firm handling of the start of his premiership as he deftly dealt with a series of difficult events including terrorist attacks in Glasgow and London, floods across England and another bout of foot and mouth disease. He temporarily cultivated a ‘father of the nation’ figure and benefited with the biggest poll leads over the Conservatives since before the Iraq war. Could this mood be revived as the threat of swine flu increases?”
Not this line again.
I can tell you that you would struggle to find anyone in Yorkshire who thinks Gordon Brown handled the 2007 floods well.
I also suspect that you will struggle to find anyone who was closely connected to the other events of the summer and autumn of 2007 who would say that Brown handled their issue well.
What you had in 2007 was the media, in particular the BBC, praising Brown to the skies for the simple reason he had replace Blair. Brown had apparantly faced tougher challenges than Churchill had in 1940 and was the man of strength and courage and integrity and vision. Well we saw how long that lasted in 2007.
As to swine flu the answer is no. Principally because its a lot less dangerous than ordinary ‘harmless’ flu.
The omens for Brown in this are not good. The UK has a lot of cases (far more than Belgium, just across the Channel, taking the difference in population into account) and it’s not at all clear that the NHS has had any impact on the numbers of people catching the bug so far.
88 Yeah - grumpy old men are so under-represented on pb.com…
A good article Henry. It could well be one of several factors that upset the current forcasting.
A sudden upturn in the economy the deft handling of the pandemic a positive reapraisal of the last twelve years and some serious consideration of the Cameron/Osborne axis could well see Brown’s Labour Party sqeezing home in 2010.
I do find it weird that Britain has been hit so much harder than other developed countries… it seems quite bizarre.
Is it because Heathrow is the preferred aircraft hub of the world?
Is it because our country is simply more crowded than others?
The only thing swine flu could save is Brown’s premiership in the Autumn as not being the time to oust him. Other than that I just don’t see any impact at all.
Underequiping our soldiers however…..
I’d like to agree with Henry but I can’t.
He’s right in his assessment of the scale of the potential impact of the epidemic, and frankly the planning of the NHS behind the scenes is stunning.
The political impact is likely to be limited for one reason.
The life of Ivan Cameron.
David Camerons very wise decision, obviously genuinely felt and personal, to value the NHS above all other institutions in a civilised society does him and our country great credit.
The fact that his pledges are deeply personal render his critics of his spending pledge inside his party and outside it toothless.
Had his pledge on health not been made, and clearly heartfelt then this issue could carry severe dangers for the Conservatives.
The Camerons sons short life was well lived.
Two comments hit the bulleye: GIN at [5] and MM at [50].
After all the money spent on the NHS, the public will expect it to cope. If it does, Labour may get a small amount of benefit. If it doesn’t (stocks aren’t available, GP surgeries can’t be accessed, hospitals are stretched beyond capacity etc), Labour will get a great deal of the blame. In that case, one compelling argument will be that Swine Flu has nothing to do with it: any severe outbreak would have had the same result. Where did the taxpayers’ money go? (To which a large part of the answer is ‘wages’).
Politically, Brown will almost certainly take the wrong course. His first instinct, as demonstrated ably at the Liaison Committee, is to seek to avoid blame. He will be too concerned about ensuring that someone else - preferably the Tories - is in line for the hit rather than getting on with the job.
In retrospect, it’s fairly clear that Brown’s masterful behaviour in 2007 mainly involved calling COBRA meetings while the usual channels got on with their work. He didn’t actually have much to do. Masterful displacement activity might have worked then; it won’t work in a real crisis.
Finally, it would be no good reason to put off an election. The country didn’t in 1918.
And I definitely don’t recall the government coming out of F&M 2 well since it came from one of its labs despite their attempts to blame some else.
The only thing that I thought Gordon handled well was the Glasgow attack - very calm and sensible, since then nope.
92. ‘a positive reapraisal of the last twelve years’
How is that going to come about Roger? Public Finances trashed and bloated, taxes up and going up more, pensions trashed, 3 million unemployed.
Straws and clutching comes to mind.
Another point to make is that ministers are very keen to tell us how we are ‘best prepared’ but less keen to spread the news that we are ‘one of the worst affected’. Whilst this is justifiable from a ‘preventing public panic’ angle, I don’t think that ‘best prepared’ and ‘worst affected’ are states that can co-exist for any significant length of time.
95 - I suspect tim, in retrospect, even you might regret that last cheap and tasteless comment.
97. Even more Glasgow, it’s said that he was calm and sensible. What was the alternative, running round shouting ‘what do we do’ and saying ‘we’re doomed’.
90 Logically, you would expect England to have more cases of swine flu than Belgium, as England is the most densely populated country in Europe. Greater scope for people to come into contact with an infected person.
Our local chemist told me yesterday that we already have cases in our village. It is very widely dispersed now.
On the issues for the wider economy, she’d sold out of thermometers…so buy shares in thermometer manufacturers!
92. Is that the axis of evil? Have to say all these predictions of upturn in the economy fail to take into account public spending restraint and higher taxes which are looming. This will pop unemployment to 3m and will impact consumer spending, just can’t see the silver lining yet myself. Ps. Good interesting article henryg
By the way, those criticising Henry’s article are missing a couple of points.
Firstly, even if the answer to a question is ‘no’, it’s still worth asking the question.
Secondly, taken as a broader issue, the big unknown between now and the election is Macmillan’s ‘events’. Attempting to turn ‘unknown unknowns’ into ‘known unknowns’ is a key part of predicting outcomes and so going through each possible scenario is a thoroughly worthwhile practice.
So thanks to Henry for a well written article, even if I don’t agree with the conclusion.
The potential rise of the NHS up there with the economy as the top issue of concern could tilt matters more in Labour’s favour. It is one of the few areas that Labour has traditionally led the Conservatives on.
This is possible, but if swine flu does cause a large number of deaths then the NHS, however well prepared in relation to other countries we may be, is going to struggle to cope.
It may well be wholly unrealistic to expect the NHS to cope without any problems, but you could easily envisage a scenario whereby Labour copped the flak for this inevitable shortcoming in the face of a one-in-fifty-odd years event. It’s not as though Labour are being given the benefit of the doubt any more after all.
95 WTF? That comments in extremely poor taste. I see you’ve reverted to ‘Scumbag’ mode.
Henry G Manson: it simple. Look how the Tories handled the AIDS issue, and look how Labour are delegating admin-staff to allocate Tamiflu*.
Mike’s analysis is correct. D-. Please try harder!
* Source: SkyNews. As of next week patients have to phone NHS-Direct [Ker-ching!] to answer questions about their illness, and they may be allocated a prescription. Sums up this governments usage of box-ticking and stats.
100. Assuming it’s meant at face value, there’s nothing cheap or tasteless in that comment.
Dream on. Gordon is far more likely to be blamed for thousands of unnecessary deaths - particularly if there is a recurring theme of underlying health problems which were untreated for various reasons - than get an increase in electoral support for doing what any Government should do - which is protect its people.
102 Thought Belgium is also pretty densely populated?
96. DH
+1
100 - I believe that David Camerons commitment to the NHS is heartfelt and genuine as a result of his sons life.
And I don’t think anyone inside or outside his party questions it.
Your interpretation of my comment reflects on you, rather than on anything I wrote.
Henry G Manson: it simple. Look how the Tories handled the AIDS issue, and look how Labour are delegating admin-staff to allocate Tam1flu*^.
Mike’s analysis is correct. D-. Please try harder!
* Source: SkyNews. As of next week patients have to phone NHS-Direct [Ker-ching!] to answer questions about their illness, and they may be allocated a prescription. Sums up this governments usage of box-ticking and stats.
^ Forgot: Tammy’s flu is a censored word….
OT: Quaequam thinks the defection of the Fernandos is more significant than many other Lib Dem commentators have said:
http://www.theliberati.net/quaequamblog/2009/07/17/the-fernandos-expose-a-wider-failure/
Thanks for the article, but I think the answer is no.
112. Fluffy Thoughts.
Speaking of T@miflu, it’s reaching it’s use-by date: http://tinyurl.com/lxxsny
“Father of the nation” !
Don’t make me laugh. Brown was on a honeymoon period, didn’t do anything clever or imaginative, just appeared on the news a bit looking grave. I honestly don’t get the praise which was heaped on him at the time, it was not rocket science to show concern for flood victims FFS! The positive press he got isn;t likely to be repeated by today’s media, given the contempt which they hold him in.
6000 people die of flu on average every winter. Chances are this will be similar - so what. Move along, nothing to see here.
Thanks Henry for the opening article.
Then I read Tim’s item and he demonstrates that scum bags like McSlime are alive and well at the heart of the Labour party….
#69 From what I hear, MM, I understand the young are at greater risk. Jack W and me should be OK.
by Peter the Punter July 17th, 2009 at 7:51 am
Are you another twenty-something wanna-be? I think not!
Henry,
I respectfully disagree and suggest this piece is based more on hope than expectation.
Gordon Brown is not a man for a crisis. He was seen as deftly handling those early crises as he was being given an easy ride by the papers who had conspired in the baffling acclamation of him as PM. It’s not anything he actually did.
If anything, I would be more worried that he will use Swine Flu deaths to wheel out scare stories about the Tory bogeymen letting people die which would backfire spectacularly.
The only thing Gordon Brown ever does is make Labour’s position worse. The only way he can try prevent a Tory landslide is by resigning.
David Cameron in charge of the NHS would not scare people. People remember how much his family relied on it.
On floods Brown was helped enormously by Cameron going to Africa, and thus appearing on the news in bright sunshine. AC never let Blair be filmed on holiday.
111 ‘Your interpretation of my comment reflects on you, rather than on anything I wrote.’
Wrong. Any interpretation is based on your history of unpleasant and controversial posts. A leopard doesn’t change it spots.
Swine flu save him? He is managing this as successfully as Foot & Mouth. It is everywhere and the government have “given up” trying to contain it.
Swop Swine-flu for Ebola and we would all be dead. The only truth to come out of this saga is that a pandemic of a REAL disease will wipe us out because no-one in authority has a clue what to do.
FPT West Ham Patrick:
“Hi,hope you’re well-whatever our differences I bear you no malice whatsoever.
The memory of proabaly 3.5-4 million unemployed,as I was atennager in the mid 1980s,and the fact SDP policies would have softened the blow (and I got stressed about not having a job in 1987 aged 16) ,makes my knee-jerk reaction to a blue-rosetted knock on my door to two words;
‘F*** off’”
Don’t worry Patrick I’ve never felt any malice from you and have certainly never intended to give any.
As to your feelings to Conservatives well I have similar ones towards Labour and Brown in particular.
In the last year I’ve had twice to take part in meetings where people have been selected (through no fault of their own or the company’s) for redundancy. Nearly half the employees at the manufacturing business where I work have lost their jobs and they have tended to be long standing experienced men whose skills might now be lost permanently. We don’t seem to have had any support or even sympathy from the government who it seems cares only about the banks and public sector.
Its politically disasterous for Labour too as the people who suffer are their traditional core voters. I strongly suspect several of the present and former workers voted BNP last month.
Does anyone have a weather report from London? I have a bet on England at 4/1. Was feeling rather pleased with myself at 3pm yesturday
The Sun is not happy.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
123 ‘Does anyone have a weather report from London?’
Richard, heavy rain overnight and the ground is very damp. Ominous grey clouds are hovering overhead.
List of countries by population density. The UK is at 52, although England alone is now somewhere above the Netherlands, so in the top 25.
F1 drivers would be well advised to move to Greenland…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density
123. another richard.
Dry but very grey here in W5 (about 7 miles WSW of Lord’s).
EdP
Thanks
Doesn’t sound too good but maybe a few hours play now and then.
Hopefully difficult batting conditions for the start of the Aus innings.
113 LondonStatto Yes Quaequam has written well about the LDs ethnic challenges. He also thinks that they have done better on female candidates, we shall see after the GE.
We need socialist posters on here more than tory or LD. So its worthwhile that a reasonable, though unlikely, scenario is raised by HenryG.
But I much prefer his tennis tips.
Well I listened to the BBC interview with Liam Donaldson yesterday and all I heard from it was how the NHS would now be giving everyone a number so that they could withhold treatment of Swine Flu from those who have already cried wolf. Most disconcerting.
Peter the Piunter.
Any argument that “Brown handled the crisis well” or was seen as “Father of the Nation” is just so much tosh it’s risible.
The fact that it was promulgated by a “Labour activist” is highly relevant.
I notice Henry G returns to reassert the same line.
It makes no more sense than first time.
Just getting your picture in the papers and on the TV bulletins is not “handling a crisis well”
95 tim,
I don’t normally respond to your rather hysterical rants but I’m moved to state quite forcefully that your last comment was extremely repellant and serves no place in any public arena. Mike, if you’re monitoring this today please could you do something about this.
tim if you really beleive that sort of thing I think you should seek professional advice before your sociopathic tendancies become clinically relevant.
The short answer is of course no.
I am still suspicious why the govenment changed the narritive 180 degrees over the last 24 hours.
It’s flu. which is very unpleasant, and tragically some people will die, but its flu, that is all.
We seem to live in a society that is becoming more and more hysterical. Bad things happen, they always have, they always will.
Are there no depths NuLab won’t sink to?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/5848164/Labour-ministers-plan-reputation-trashing-of-Army-chief-General-Sir-Richard-Dannatt.html
No? Didn’t think so.
Is Frank Skinner a h00n*? You decide…
* Hat-tip: skynet@Arrse
The waiting time on NHS Direct last week was 4hrs. Pointless.
I was intrigued by tim’s point about the ‘behind the scenes’ work in the NHS - sounds like that may have an impact on how it’s handled. Would you share your insider knowledge tim?
113 - Thats a serious bit of writing by Quaequam. Worthy of a thread on here
132 - What I really believe is that David Camerons commitment to the NHS is 100% genuine as a result of his sons life.
headline correction.
For shine read resign.
131 He’s a Labour activist with a good understanding of Politics and a sharp betting mind. That’s the sense in which his persona is relevant, Geoff.
Anyway, my point was that it’s more helpful as well as more interesting if fire is directed at the content of the argument, rather than who it is.
I disagree with the majority view here. I think that because Brown has such a low base to start from a good response to swine flu could see his and Labour’s ratings bolstered.
However, even a good response would not be enough to save him. And if he even slightly played politics with it (entirely possible) it would finish him. If Dannatt doesn’t kill him off first.
138 Will take you at face value on Cameron’s son, given your protestations. But your original post could very easily be read as intended to be ironic - and if so, as highly offensive.
There are two points nobody has mentioned:
1) The 66,000 figure of dead comes from Liam Donaldson. He has a 100% track record in predicting casualty figures from medical pandemics - 100% wrong (remember his hysteria on CJD)? How he is still CMO is beyond me. So we must really assume this is even beyond the doomsday scenario (most estimates keep deaths well under 30,000, nearer to 20,000).
2) A further elephant in the room is that if a massive swine flu vaccination programme goes ahead, it will mean that vaccination production is diverted from preparing for seasonal flu. As a result we should prepare for a very sharp spike in that come the autumn and winter - which may well cause far more deaths than swine flu would have done (this actually happened in America in I think 1969, where a huge vaccination programme against Hong Kong flu may have saved several thousand lives at the cost of 100,000 more deaths than normal from seasonal flu).
So the way things are going at present we might be building up to make matters a good deal worse. And if that happens, it’s very hard to see how, crisis or no, Gordon Brown and Andy Burnham’s headless chicken approach will not see them pay a high price politically.
143, I agree entirely with point 1). Apparently H5N1 was going to kill everybody in the world too. However, if a cretin makes enough predictions, he’ll get one right just by luck.
Burnham as Health Secretary doesn’t command confidence.
142 - Nonsense.
You’ve never heard me question Camerons commitment to the NHS on here, nor will you.
131. Just getting your picture in the papers and on the TV bulletins is not “handling a crisis well”
That is precisely the definition of handling a crisis well these days.
Gordo had a good Foot & Mouth crisis, unless you were a farmer.
Gordo had a good flood crisis, unless you were actually flooded.
Cmaeron had a good expenses crisis, unless you were a backbencher that is standing down.
I am not sure what the good swine flu photo op is.
The nature of the ‘crisis’ (if indeed it is one) is different to a terrorist attack, or even foot and mouth. It’s a creeping event, rather than a big bang, and the media either generalise it too much, or ignore it. Either way, I can see how a politican can benefit from it.
147: Thats should be ‘Either way, I can’t see how a politican can benefit from it.’ Of course…
145 Tim, your trouble is that you post here with plenty of previous on saying one thing and meaning another. Don’t be surprised if some people misread your intentions.
145 tim, give it a rest. Your post at 95 would have been more acceptable were it not for the final comment, which can be readily interpreted as a suggestion that the child’s untimely death provided a useful hook from which his father made political capital.
Given that the NHS’s position seems to be ‘If you ain’t dying, don’t bother us too much’ It doesn’t show the government being able to control the situation to their advantage.
150: Yes..that last part, was, well ‘ill-advised’ to put it in the politest possible way.
If a contributor has a reputation for posting snide and offensive remarks, 18 hours a day, 7 days a week, they should not be surprised if one of their comments is interpreted as such.
152
I agree entirely.
143
SARS was even better, and as for Bird-flu, I wiped out every thing with feathers in a five miles radius, just in case! Shame about Mrs Smith’s canary, but what the hell, ‘Get the bastards, before they get you, thats what I say’
The “Father of the Nation” tag was used because Brown was new and fresh (as much as he ever was) and at the time was not Blair. Can I raise a further tag – “media narrative”. Positive for him them, very negative for him now.
143 - The figure of 66,000 is of course the upper estimate which the press have seized on.
Any estimate will of course have a lower and upper limit.
Your claims that winter flu vaccine is in abeyance interest me.
Do you have any evidence for that?
113 LondonStatto
That blog post is an absolute gem. Thanks for bringing it to our attention!
140:P “He’s a Labour activist with a good understanding of Politics and a sharp betting mind. That’s the sense in which his persona is relevant, Geoff”
NO.
Dog bites man is not a story. Man bites dog is.
Bishop prays to God is not a story. Bishop says God does not exist is a story.
Labour activist praising Brown is not a story. Conservative activist would be.
Henry’s lauding of Brown is pointless. It’s what Labour activists do. And not interesting or of any value.
146. Gordon’s brilliant handling of the Foot and Mouth crises was nothing of the sort. DEFRA had well-laid plans in place, based on previous experience with both Foot and Mouth and Avian Flu. They carried out those plans, exactly as they would have done under any Prime Minister (And did pretty well, having learnt from 2001).
The contribution of GB was zero ziffa nothing zilch.
Labour concentrating on important matters once more:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5190523/the-war-on-dannatt-continues.thtml
I think some here having forgotten how people react to tragedy. It is the case that in times of crisis, the government usually but not always gets a bounce in popularity. This is more likely to be case if we get an epidemic in a few months as the government is at such a low base.
However, the fact that this is no surprise epidemic will mitigate any effect, as some people will say why are we not prepared when we’ve had months. Second, any bounce is unlikely to survive to a GE, which will be several months away from any spike in cases.
O/T
It has stopped raining in Peckham, but the ground is still wet and it is dark and cloudy. Luckily Lords has the best drainage system in the world and they are now allowed to turn on the lights, both of which should minimise the amount of time lost.
152 - Give it a rest, Cameron and everyone who knows him remarks how Ivans life altered his view of the NHS and those who looked after his son.
Ypu are reading what suits you into a genuine comment on my behalf, and as I said you haven’t heard me question Camerons commitment to the NHS nor will you.
141 Morris
Yes, that’s a balanced response to Henry’s suggestions. I adjusted my bets on departure dates and also bit deeper into the rather skinny election date odds. On the more substantial issue of how well Labour will do, no change of view on that one, although the issue is worth keeping an eye on from the political betting perspective.
Scrap that last comment, it’s now hoofing it down.
O/T there’s not really a new thread
Nice to see Henry, one of the few decent Labour contributors to this site, and a punter’s friend, writing a lead article.
But I’m afraid I agree with post 12. re. the substance of the article - it is wishful thinking. In fact, the near-hagiography of Brown circa 2007 is faintly embarrassing.
That said, I have no doubt at all that there are senior figures in the moral vacuum that is New Labour who are genuinely hoping that the swine flu pandemic worsens and that this somehow gives their party a boost.
I know that we are entering the silly season, but the premise of this thread is topsy-turvy.
The fact that Henry G Manson is still a Labour supporter and Great Leader worshiper says it all.
The answer is and will be a resounding NO: Brown will be blamed for having the S. Flu mutate into a pandemic, and then blamed again for the deaths that accrue.
163 Tim
I read your post exactly as it was intended, but could see that the Professional Timhaters around here might seize on your last sentence. They didn’t disappoint!
You have to be a tad more careful if you don’t want to encourage them. They don’t need any encouragement!
OT That James Graham blog post is superb, particulalry the second half. OGH should get him to do a guest slot over the summer.
Please, for once, can we not make the thread all about Tim?
Henry - very interesting piece - deserved more respect than it got in some quarters.
You have (understandably) focussed only on the potentially positive angle for the Government and I think it is important to acknowledge that your thesis is valid - the deaths of thousands of otherwise perfectly healthy people, public services becoming overwhelmed, schools and small businesses closing etc would create a very different political climate - one in which even matters such as the macroeconomy would become less relevant to debate. Certainly expensesgate, smeargate, Greengate and all the other gates would descend into irrelevance, and otherwise toxicissues such as ID cards would cease to be so dangerous for the Government. It is conceivable (although not in my view probable) that the landscape could change so significantly that the next election would be a referendum on which party is best placed to manage the crisis and its aftermath.
However, as others have noted, this thesis depends on a number of contingencies including principally that swine flu is as bad as all that…
Moreover, one has to question whether a crisis will generate goodwill for the Government or erode it further. This Government is so short of friends - and even sympathetic acquaintences - that I suspect it is more likely the Government’s message will fall on deaf ears. Talking about how well prepared we are is strong politics now, but will matter little if the bodies pile up, even at a slower rate than elsewhere. If the hospitals fill up, HMG will be blamed, even if no government on earth could deliver that kind of extra capacity.
And then we get on to Gordon himself. His authority has faded in the last two years and I am unconvinced he can position himself as a national statesman. His paranoia and belligerence is such that he will see any adverse comment about HMG’s handling of the crisis as party political, and he will stick to his “we are the best prepared” narrative at all costs, even in the face of grieving parents. I am not sure he has the political instinct to improve his standing.
That said - interesting article, for which thanks.
159 You make my point for me splendidly, Geoff!
As a result of reading Henry’s article, I trimmed my bets on an early GB exit date and also on Johnson replacing him before the GE. I also layed an early election date. The reason for doing so was that I believed Henry had cast an interesting sidelight on an old topic.
As I expect you know, I am a professional punter specialising in politics, so Henry’s little insights were clearly of some interest and value to me. It would not have mattered to me if they had come from a Tory or LibDem activist. Judged on their own merits, the arguments have some validity, although as Morris Dancer and several others have suggested, they shouldn’t be overstated and have more relevance to timing and dates than to the bigger issue of how badly Labour are likely to lose at the next GE.
“Henry’s lauding of Brown is pointless. It’s what Labour activists do. And not interesting or of any value.”
In fact, Henry is often very critical of Brown, but do you really think his contributions are uninteresting and valueless because he is a Labour activist? What about activists from other parties? Are they equally incapable of ‘correct thinking’?
There are a lot of Party Activists who post on here whose views I respect and find of interest and value. They come from a wide spectrum of Parties. It’s what makes the Site so interesting, and valuable.
I have a lot of time for Mark Senior (albeit because he was poorly treated at UKPolling). But the argument that We are winning here! must be wearing thin.
Ho hum!
Speaking as an inactive Labour member, waiting for a change of leader and direction to get me back off my backside: If swine flu makes Brown’s position more secure between now and the GE, then I consider this to be bad news for the party, and bad news for our GE prospects. Any Brown bounce in handling the crisis will be very short lived, and forgotten about by next May. The GE will focus on the economy, Afghanistan and Brown as an ineffective leader. Without the fundamental changes of leader and direction, we will lose.
P.S. Obviously a good article Henry, as our discussions are still on-topic.
PtP @ 179
You really don’t know when to lie down and give up do you?
It’s not the party activist’s posts on here are necessarily pointless.
They ONLY have value when they run counter to the party’s percieved advantage.
Now if Henry had sad, Brown cocked up over F&M and Floods etc and would do the same over swine ‘flu then it begins to be interesting.
Or if SeanT or ChristinaD, say, posted they admired Brown at times of crisis and he’d be briliiant in a time of swine ‘flu then they’d be interesting.
But, this article from this writer? No.
182 No, I do actually give up, Geoff.
I have already spent too much time this morning labouring to make what I thought was a fairly obvious point.
I have failed.
Here is an article describing one of the worst normal flu seasons in years:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/3916730/Winter-flu-most-prevalent-among-the-young.html
“Out of every 100,000 people between 15 and 44 in England, 54.4 have the flu, compared with 18 cases among the same number of people aged over 65.”
That article was from December last year. The flu peaks in winter - in the summer it is supposed to be practically non-existant
Currently the flu infection rate in London is between 140 and 180 per 100,000 people…….. in the middle of July!
When reporting daily Swine Flu related deaths the media should alongside, report deaths from ordinary flu.
NO. The bureaucracy will deal with swine flu. the govt will get the balme if there is a cock up.
The govt may talk up the dangers to then play up its resolution.
Brown gets plaudits simply for doing his job?
“Who would have predicted that the expenses scandal, with all of the Tory grandees …” It was labour who were getting expenses for phantom mortgages, and indeed boarded up second homes.
David Herdson: Once again you hit the nail on the head.
I never cease to be impressed by your posts on here. Your analysis is so consistently accurate, logical, reasoned and sound that I am inclined to advise every Tory MP I know (not many I grant you) to hire you!
If they did - they wouldn’t regret it for a second.
You would be absolutely indispensable.
101. I can see it now David - the Sun and Daily Mail headlines:
“National vaccine scandal”
“The 6 hour wait - for NOTHING”
“Died whilst waiting for help”
Etc. etc.
As you say, Brown will then exacerbate the situation by denying any failings when quizzed and criticising those who criticise him.
One really does wonder how he will play the 3-week official election campaign next year: it will be a joy to watch.
There is a new thread people
Kids, there’s been a new thread going like for EVAH….
Yeah, right!
Brown was new when the series of crises “tested” his metal. Basically the crises were managed quite adequately by the civil service with Brown as a new (good job I’m not Tony) avuncular leader taking credit..
Unfortunately for him his political flat footedness now outweighs his ability to take long term credit for any work done by those who have to do the job for real.
And there will be a slight and short lived rise in the polls (perhaps to 29%) as the weak willed and lacking in memory fret and mumble on about “what a good man Brown is”.
Two parts to this thread really. Firstly I doubt it will help Gordon Brown. Secondly I think there has been complacency about swine flu generally. Of the various threats to a country other than out and out war, disease is by far the most serious. We know that previous flu pandemics have been serious and can get worse in 2 or even 3 waves. So we are not dealing with unknowns. Where the swine flu is more prevalent we already know that it was spreading more quickly than was predicted and that the majority of fatalities were amongst younger, healthy people. We also know from those areas that those who are critical who have “underlying health conditions” mostly have conditions that are common in the general public. We also know in places with more infection and hospitalisations that there are equipment shortages such as ventilators. There are lots of knowns here.
The only way swine flu can save Gordon Brown is if it kills the entire shadow cabinet.
Has Gordon stopped lying about helicopters unbought and the resultant deaths on his hands yet?
WELL THEN.