Two new polls from YouGov & ComRes
July 18th, 2009
CON 42% (+2) LAB 25% (+1) LD 18% (+1)
YouGov have Tories over 40%, ComRes say not quite
ITN have announced a new YouGov poll which has the Conservatives increasing their lead over Labour to 17 points, but all major parties gaining slightly at the expense of ‘Others’. This implies that the mistrust of the major parties over expenses at the time of the European elections has largely died away, which won’t be good news for the Greens in Norwich North.
The ITN story (see link) claims this is the largest Tory lead with YouGov since September 2008, but checking UK Polling Report, this is incorrect: YouGov gave the Conservatives a lead of 17% on 29th May 2009.
Hat-tip to “Me” for highlighting this YouGov poll.
UPDATE: ComRes in the Independent on Sunday now released
CON 38% (+2) LAB 23% (-2) LD 22% (+3)
ComRes don’t quite have the Conservatives breaching the apparently all-important 40% mark, but they do have the LibDems within a point of Labour, which is significant. “Others” fell by 4 points to 16% confirming the trend in the YouGov poll. Non-voting questions indicate roughly a 2-1 preference for pulling out of Afghanistan and not committing extra troops and resources. That surprises me, given recently polls have suggested a fairly even split.
Morus
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Anything over 40% is fine for the tories.
Looks like the comedy writers dream government is on the way.
Arhh, Tim sounds just a tad bitter….
Don’t worry Tim, no doubt Com Res will have an hilariously alternative result for you to enjoy.
2(cont) Really can’t see Cameron ever giving the comedy writers this kind of material!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfcNZmRkKL0
FPT - Viv Richards 187 was the most jaw dropping innings I’ve seen.
And Michael Holding probably the coolest man ever to play the game.
1. Nothing could compare to Browns Government!
That reshuffle was pure Monty Python after the euro election! All to cock and no bollocks!
“Hat-tip to “Me” for highlighting this one.”
Thanks for the hat-tip Morus.
Personally, I’d rather have a comedy than the current doom-laden tragedy.
FPT-Plato- I do not remember this, but what I can say for sure is that it’s one of the proudest teams here in Brazil. I do know that in 1976 they won a match(semi final)against Fluminense on penalties.
Conservative home has the two polls:
Conservatives - 38% (+2)
Labour - 23% (-2)
Lib Dems - 22% (+3)
(comres)
Oh - LD were unchanged it said on Teletext!
The thread head has them up a point!
LD are doomed! Doomed to defeat and the electoral equivalent of a red hot poker up their backside! Bend over Nick Clegg!
1 ooh just feel the bitterness. Perhaps if Labour hadn’t been the most incompetent, deceitful, authoritarian and wasteful government in history. Still I am sure Labour will be back but certainly not until the likes of Tim have been booted out.
Tim’s right though. Most comedy writers around tend to be lefties and the Conservative government will see an “unexplained” increase in political jokes.
FPT Mr Dale has an interesting piece on the Dannett controversy
Link with original post and comments:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6214838&postID=2942739536162730904
1. tim, your bitter and frankly cheap little shot just made my evening.
Cheers!
4. Oracle July 18th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Speaking of Tom Watson, his caddie is a political consultant, a Democrat who helped elect Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell among others.
5 yes, it was a bit tasty!
Nathan Astle’s double century at Christchurch against England casing 500 plus was pretty impressive.
Atherton’s 184 n.o over 10 hours to save the test in South Africa for sheer doggedness was also brilliant.
Its the economy stupid.
There is, however, not much chance of that kind scale of lead come next GE.
12 Better let those on Mock The Week and the Now Show know…
18. Why?
12, David - so you & tim agree, a Tory government will increase the jollification of the nation!
Actually Smearbot brings up a unintentional point, Rory Bremner has had a plenty of easy go to material with Major, then Blair (and obviously up against Howard) and then obviously the comedy gold of Brown.
Whenever I see Bremner do “a Cameron”, I never think he has nailed anything particular funny on him. I bet he is hoping that if Cameron wins he develops so weird tick or something, otherwise it could be lots of Squeaky gags ever week.
YouGov - Baxter gives Tory majority of 132
My predictions just 1 out (42/25/19) - would rather have been wrong, though.
LD say plus 1 i thought they were unchanged on 18?
So to summarise -
No lasting effect from the expenses scandal
No effect from Labour’s infantile toff campaign
No effect from Labour’s smear campaign
No boost from the economy for Labour
No chance for Labour
24. Nick Palmer MP July 18th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Yes, i overestimated Labour IIRC and underestimated the Tories share of the vote!
Just out of interest Nick and this is not really political but how much contact with the PM does a backbench MP have? Is it just mainly in the lobbies and maybe some issue you bring up for your voters or something greater? We used to hear about the smoking and tea room encounters pre 1997 but this seems to have gone out the window? What has your experience been? Just interested!
“Are the Conservatives aiming for an early exit from Afghanistan?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jul/18/conservatives-afganistan-defence-public-spending
26 - You forgot one,
No boost from “Destroying Britain’s Future”, Gordo Relaunch #276
22 Oracle
What like this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TJQ8RxzUgI
It struck no cord with this 3x Tony voter.
Just look at how brilliant I am only 1 point out on the Labour vote and spot on with the Tory 42% (I am incredible)
My post earlier:
“Good evening Ladies and Gents,
Imminent Polls I hear, at last !
Anyway I am going to give you all a bit more of my “brilliant political emotional intelligence” and predict the following:
If its a:
YouGov C42, L24, LD22
ComRes C40, L25, LD22
Populus C42, L25, LD20
IpsosMori C41, L26, LD21
And that is my ever brilliant best predictions. I won’t be far out with my brilliance you will see”
Speaking of politicos and commedians, here is a paraphrase of exchange during last week’s hearing of the US Senate Judiciary Committee:
Sen. Al Franken (D-Minnesota): Judge Sotomayor, as children you and I were both fans of the TV show “Perry Mason”. Can you tell me, what was the case that Perry Mason lost and his client was convicted?
Judge Sonia Sotomayor: I should remember that, but unfortunately I can’t
Sen. Franken: Didn’t the White House brief you for this hearing?
No - the last YouGov was 28th June in the People Newspaper, and had C(40), Lab(24), LD(17).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2191
7 - You’re welcome!!
Tory Diary just posted this on ComRes
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/18/yougov-put-tories-on-17-pt-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-1149450
Wayne July 18th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Good stuff! hopefully we will still see the yellow Taxi and a Labour defeat of epic proportions! The LD Taxi moment is not the big occasion but the defeat of Labour is certainly that occasion. However the Yellow Taxi moment is fun and great to see!
32 What was the case??!!
35 Oops - this one!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/07/labour-15-points-adrift-of-the-tories-in-new-comres-poll.html
30 - Mildly amusing, but is it really something he can do week in week out?
So far from what I can remember (obviously whatever he is doing isn’t sticking very well), Bremner’s take on Cameron seems to be to try to take the p##s on a “no policies, never making a decision, not wanting to offend anybody, not really saying anything” level, but for me anyway it doesn’t really work very well.
6 Surely ‘Some Mothers Do Ave ‘Em’ April 1992 to May 1997,starring John and Norma Major,is up there-special moments including Black Wednesday (queue longest bout of canned laughter in TV history)
ComRes result produces:
Baxter: Con 353, Lab 198, LD 68
Anthony Wells: Con 353, Lab 203, LD 65
36.
Yes Martin, I am so pleased with my brilliant predictions again. I need a drink to celebrate the slow labour death….. ps Tims quiet ?
Now all those t4ats who keep saying people aren’t happy with Labour but then again they ain’t over enthused with Cameron and the tories…… Can go and p4ss up their own legs ! hahahaha
37, Plato - a US Court of Appeals judge couldn’t answer this question . . . so you expect ME to know the answer?
My best guess: “The Case of the Unluckiest SOB who Ever Lived”
37. The Case of the Terrified Typist or The Deadly Verdict.
To bad they never had (as far as I know) a Perry Mason episode set in the UK.
Would have been a hoot and a half to see Raymond Burr in a wig!
40. Oh - that Brown reshuffle was worse than that! I dont think Major ever had the lobby laugh at him in contempt! They may have thought his government was shit rightly or wrongly but not like that day!
We saw them laughing at Brown while he was talking - very funny!
Some of the post 1992 stuff was funny! Major should have gone in 1995! I thought so at the time. Very different situation to now with Brown because Major won his own mandate!
Hope you are alright Patrick anyway!
Interested by the leaning Labour label! Your choice but 5 more years of Gordon! 
‘Hat-tip to “Me” for highlighting this YouGov poll.’
Isn’t this a tad egotistical, even for Morus?
POST UPDATED WITH NEW COMRES POLL (19:30 embargo)
Conservative 38% (+2)
Labour 23% (-2)
Lib Dem 22% (+3)
Others 16% (-4)
In tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday.
Lord Ashcroft to quit marginal seats role
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/5851037/Lord-Ashcroft-to-quit-marginal-seats-role.html
….But not until after the GE.
43 Do you think Franken’s erstwhile opponent is a good punt for Governor possibly.
“The Case of Hamilton Burger’s (and Lt. Tragg’s) Revenge”?
Comres = Laugh I almost wet myself !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“Once upon a time their was a little polling questionaire sent out to some perspective voters and then we got the answers back …. and completely got them all a4se about face” …..
We still have the enigma why Labour are consistently polling better with ICM than with other pollsters. If Labour are indeed a few percent higher in the polls, this would make a big difference to their seat tally at the next election.
In the past our host has suggested as one of his rules that the poll showing Labour in the worst position is the most accurate. More recently, he has pointed to ICM’s accuracy in predicting Labour vote share in advance of elections. These suggestions cannot both be right in present circumstances.
Perry Mason lost “The Case of the Deadly Verdict”, but in fairness it wasn’t his fault. The client withheld evidence that was required to win the case or something.
Can I be an Associate Justice of the SCOTUS now?
46. “We saw them laughing at Brown while he was talking - very funny!” -
Reminded me of that H of C select committee when a mate from school who works for a Labour MP was laughing at the back as i was when someone shouted order - order! Reminded me of the school debating society! Funny times!
“I once had to defend the womans place was in the home”. I jokingly said it would boost the shoe industry as woman would have to walk to the shops to make sure the mans dinner was ready when he got home from work and the beuaty industry would be assisted as well!
The feminist teacher set me up and a woman who went to the same univerity thought i was serious!
That cost me a tumble!
Any polls specific to Norwich out?
179 FPT
Re Cricket
Dyed in the wool, the fact that it might rain for the next two days in no way vindicates your position regarding Strauss not enforcing the follow on. In fact the poor weather we are expecting makes Strauss’s very sensible decision all the more correct. His team managed to put on 300 odd runs today in good batting conditions and now have 2 days to get rid of the Aussies. If it rains for the next 2 days then of course it will be a draw. But that was always going to be the case whether or not Strauus enforced the follow on.
What he has done is given his team the very best chance of actually winning this match - something that would not have been the case if they had enforced the follow on since in all likelihood the Aussies would by now have a small lead of 100 or so with the prospect of dragging things out over the next couple of days and making it impossible for England to close out the win.
Strauss made a very good call and his team then did a good job of making it work. If the match is now drawn it will not be because of that decision.
53.
I suppose you have to have some hope if you are unlucky to be a Labour fan. Anyway whichever pollster you like = Labour DOOMED !! ha ha ha
49. He’s been saying that for several years now - that he saw his job as making the Tory campaign unit professional and efficient and then moving on.
It is an intersting contrast - the Ashcroft technique compared with some of the recent efforts by the Labour party….
46 Hi,Martin,hope you’re very well.
‘Leans Labour’ is my default political instinct since probably my mid teens.FWIW,I despair of Gordon Brown-for a long time,an effective (admittedly lucky) Chancellor,who bullied Tony Blair to go..and as they say,the rest is history.
I recall in June 2008 Gordon Brown in a Times interview stated he would go ‘mid-term’ if re-elected in 2009/2010-so even if ,by some utter miracle,Labour were largest in a hung Parliament,he would not go on too much longer.
That’s probably not going to happen-David Cameron will get most seats in the next House of Commons-it is still conceivable modest swingback (sorry to paraphrase Rod Crosby :lol:) could see DC fall just shy of an outright majority-but still be able to govern stably (for reasons listed -SNP abstaining,backing from Ulster MPs)
Tribute episode of ‘Are You Being served’ in progress for dear old Mollie Sugden-back soon-ish
It seems I’m not telling the whole truth, and Senator Franken is wrong. He also lost “The Case of the Terrified Typist” (his client was actually guilty that time), and loses a Civil Case in “The Case of the Witless Witness”.
Hat-tip IMDB
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0673237/trivia
If Sotomayor could have corrected Franken with this knowledge on tap, she could have been made Chief Justice.
Time is running out for Brown the clown,9 months until he is taken kicking & screaming to see the Queen.
Lets not forget the horror budget that is due just weeks before the dissolution.
This is what happens when you wait until the last minute to hold a GE.
1 - tim, after this government the only way is down for pure entertainment value.
As in, so bad they are funny
just think tim, all that time you resarch obscure stuff, post your obsessions and yes, smear.
All for nothing, oh how sweeeeeeeeeeeet
Is a separate YouGov poll expected in the Sunday Times tomorrow?
Decent polls for the Tories. Labour will be pleased to have reached the dizzy heights of the mid-20s.
Very large Conservative leads in both polls. Its significant as well that both YouGov and ICM are putting the Tories above 40% as Others start to decline.
I see Gordon’s 10% Tory cuts has had people rushing back to Labour….oh
If tim were an alcoholic beverage,
he wouldn’t be Murphy’s.
You wait ages for a poll and then two come along at once!
60. Patrick West Ham fan who leans Labour
Yes Patrick i am alright! Enjoying the political stuff as ever!
Sad about old Henry as you you were in your earlier post! But i think given his age, it might be a relief for him! Peace at last - he served his country and told a generation (Todays of what war meant). He was a kind old man and their is nothing better than experience of events that he saw to remind us all now of what war can be like! I am sad about his passing but at least he did not suffer and he had a long life. I think there is just one vetran from ww1 left. I remember my mum saying they were sparse in the early 1980’s but now there is i think just one! I was talking to my grandmother today who is 88! Young by Henry’s record but said to her she might still have 25 years left!
I think old folk see it as a burden rather than a blessing after a while. Think she would love to meet 100 but much more than that would be difficult as they become dependent for all sorts of stuff and they are usually very proud - so they give up! My Grandmother says she does not want to become dependent but selfishly i want her to live on and on!
13. Someone has forgot to inform The Now Show we actually have a leftie Government, their material, while amusing, is standard sneering ‘thatcher boo’ ‘bigoted tories’ fare.
50, Punter - possibly.
Against the Obama tide, Norm Coleman came within a whisker of retaining his US Senate seat. He remains a respectable, formidable politico.
Seems to me his future depends on following, with the last perhaps most important:
1. How much Minnesotans blame him for dragging out the US Senate election? My own guess some (esp. Dems) do, but that most think he was within his rights under the system. From this perspective, was smart for him and GOP to cry uncle after the MN Supreme Court ruling in favor of Sen. Franken.
2. To what extent an independent candidate would eat into his gubernatorial vote. This was an major factor dooming his senatorial re-election campaign.
3. Who and how good is the ultimate DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor) Party nominee?
4. Does Coleman want to be governor, and do he and his family want to go through another grueling campaign next year?
Martin Day is DOOMED, DOOMED to spending his life looking for bad news about the LIBDEMs Looking for employment would seem a better occupation for a man who was made redundent eons ago
70. It can be worse, Mark Steel and Jeremy Hardy are stuck in 1983.
The ComRes figures seem a bit odd - yet again!
23. Armando Iannuci seems to have Cameron sized up though, i have seen a few of his shows were he has nailed him, rather uncomfortably close to the knuckle.
Well whatever way you want to put this, these are excruciatingly bad for Labour!
HA! HA!
67 - tim would have to be bitter
57 I disagree
Australia could be all out by now and the game done and dusted.
If they bowl them out, no harm done. If they fail - should have made them bat again.
It was the wrong decision at the time, we may however still win. That does not make it the right decision.
Strauss = Bruno = pauses because he hurt Tyson and doesn’t know what to do.
Pietersen and Bopara almost cost us the initiaitive with their pathetic display between lunch and tea.
Tories above 41% in NN looking good….
Part of Rory Bremner’s problem with nailing Cameron is that, most unusually, his normally pitch-perfect ear lets him down in Cameron’s case and his take on the Cameron voice finishes up sounding like Peter Mendelssohn, more often than not.
But there’s another point. Every political generation produces its own distinctive satire: Yes, Minister in the early Thatcher years, Spitting Image in the late Thatcher and Major years, Bremner, Bird and Fortune in the New Labour years. I suspect that the satirists who will really catch the spirit of the Cameron years aren’t around yet. I hope they emerge quickly. Given how grim the next few years are likely to be, we’ll need all the laughs we can get.
54, Morus
“Can I be an Associate Justice of the SCOTUS now?”
No. But bet you CAN get an autographed portrait of Sen. Franken if you write a nice letter to his office.
69 Hiya,Martin re WWI veterans,to the very best of my knowledge:
(1)Harry Patch
(2)One down in Australia
(3)One who was rediscovered by the ‘Dail Mail’-he only served in the last month or two,and was not recorded as having served,but his evidence is irrefuatble-so I believe there are 3 left.
Grandparents are special to me,having been raised by them,and lost both of them aged 26 within four months of each other-I had eight to ten nervous breakdowns in two years,and spent 7 years on Librium after that (and after my summer 2007 breakdown are back on it,albeit at a very low dose)
What is the history of longevity in your family-some people go on seemingly forever-as long as your grandmother is ale and hearty,no reason she cannot go on for quite a while-as I recall you were born in 1976,hard though it is to say,you do have to accept one day she will no longer be around-sorry if that sounds incredibly hard.
On a happier note,I hope she lives to see you get married,have kids (give her great-grandchildren :wink:)
80. The current generation need to be pensioned off. Same old faces, same old tired acts. They have all been living off past glories for many years.
76. Labour seem to be struggling to recover from the damage inflicted on them by Expensegate, where-as the Conservatives do seem to be gradually pulling themselves back up to around 40% (yes, I know ComRes continues to show the Con’s in the 30’s, but YouGov and ICM are both showing them getting above 40%)
If things don’t start to improve for Labour soon, I think there must be doubts as to whether they will be able to get to 30% at general election.
Clearly the polls are heading the Tories way, both pollsters show them 2 points higher and I think they have more to cogain from soft Labour and UKIP voters. There’s less than 300 days until My 6th!!!
78
Absolutely not. The Aussies only needed to bat as well as they did in the first innings (which wasn’t particularly well at all) to make England bat again and the whole point of these decisions is to ensure that your team gets the best batting conditions and the opposing team the worst.
Looking at the forecasts it was absolutely clear - as many were saying - that today was going to be the best batting day and that England would have a far better chance of bowling the Aussies out again tomorrow and Monday.
It was the correct decision and has so far paid off. The first part of it - getting the good lead - is done. Now they have two days of dubious batting conditions to get rid of the Aussies.
85. They are likely to get around 25% on current form.
Re Comedy Writers.
Gaz has it right about Armando Iannucci.
The others, Bremner is a half decent mimic but crippled by third rate material.
Hardy is clever but predictable.
Mark Steel is in the middle of some mid life crisis having left his wife and the Socialist Workers Party around the same time.
Also, he hitched his workers plough to the wagon of consumer binge that is George Galloway just before Galloway went into the Big Brother House.
Once you do that all satire is dead.
5. I’m sure you remember the Brian Johnston line - the bowler’s Holding the batsman’s Willey.
#85 correct typos!
” more to gain” and,
“May 6th.”
“Labour at war over Afghanistan
In an exclusive article for The Sunday Telegraph, John Hutton, the former defence secretary, joined calls for extra troops and helicopters to be provided for British forces in Helmand.
(…)
It came as The Sunday Telegraph learned that the Government turned down the chance to buy 12 “cut-price” helicopters, which were close to being ready for operational use in Afghanistan, preferring to spend more time and money upgrading its own machines.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/5859761/Labour-at-war-over-Afghanistan.html
85 - There’s less than 300 days until My 6th!!!
Your 6th what, coitus or beer?
85. Yes just 300 more days of the smearbots and filth merchants.
89 - I do.
Which Batsman said that when standing at the bowlers end while Holding was running in, you didn’t hear a sound until he’d passed you.Or have I dreamt that?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5194018/a-strategic-dilemma-for-the-tories.thtml
I’d say the Tories should simply make the case not only with Osborne but Hammond and Clarke as well.
82 WRT to WWI graves, my parents visited the graves at Gallipoli - and expressed surprise and pleasure at how well kept were the graves of Allied, as well as Turkish, soldiers, to which the guide replied - to us, they’re all our sons.
83. I seem to remember when they stopped doing Dead Ringers because they thought they were getting tired Bremner said he was having trouble with Cameron merging into Blair/etc rather than having something distinctive to latch onto.
Aside from Duncan and Boris the new frontline Tories all seem a bit drab. Not as many distinctive characters compared to the old guard (with Howard/Hague/etc).
…and Labour select people like this!!!
Hilarious!!
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/labour_party/2009/07/labours-new-candidate-for-reading-west-naz-sarkar-is-humiliated-in-an-interview-with-a-bbc-local-rad.html
86 we will have to disagree. If England do not win this game, the decision was incorrect. Simple as that. There is a greater chance of us not winning it now than there was at 11 this morning.
We should have been 260 ahead after the first innings in any case - the bowling this morning was woeful as was the field placement - you do not leave Third Man unguraded against tail enders when the follow on is close.
We were incredibly fortuante the Peacock didn’t get run out - hapless egotist that he is and then Punter dropped a sitter for Bopara - 90/4 we would have been, Prior and Colly would not have been able to open out and we would have been in severe risk of leaving the Aussies 380 or so to win over 2 and a bit days on a good track.
However, it looks like he got away with it.
71 Re Coleman. Independent you sure? I thought that guy hurt Franken mich more than Coleman. On campaign c’mon the guys a professional pol. I imagine his missus knew that when signed on with him. I think he thinks he can be POTUS. He’ll know the record says always bet on a Governor than a Senator to make it.
But what are the viewing figures like in the States for the open. I bet they must be astronomic. Americans always queue up for
Rocky XV so they must be going crazy over Watson.
82. Patrick West Ham fan who leans Labour.
Indeed patrick, A time will come when she does go. I am sorry you had such an emotional time with you your folks passing.
My Grandmother has Great Grandchildren by others but I know of a lady I would like to have many children with and possibly her the same! Hopefully if it happens Grandma will still be here! I am her closest grandchild as she says!
It is great, she hates fart jokes and all that, so i dont mention them but she will talk about most things - I had a call in the early hours the other day and they needed help - I was worried she had passed on but luckily it was just a washing machine they needed moving (Long story)! I had a skinfull but helped them - indeed they woke me up! In some ways i was glad i had a skin full as i could say i was worried she had left us and it would not be the same without her, it is in the british tradition difficult to say these things some times! But she is great! A good source of political experience and she is also my friend as well as a relative!
145 Prediction com res C 39+3,Lab 25 Nil,Lib 20+1.Oth 16-4
you gov C 41+2,Lab 25 Nil,lib 18NilOth 16-2
by rogerh July 18th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
32.Wayne closer than you on You Gov,Closer on Com Res toies but out on Commres lib.
Of interest Others sliding back to 16 on Comrs ,15 on You Gov.
Average the two and you get Con 40% Lab 24% lib 20%.
Comres showing best poll so far in terms of Lib V Lab.If there is a Sunday Telegraph ICM poll then we would expect to see Libs ahead of Labour.
Going back to Comres if this is accurate then Lib Dems in with a chance of second place in Norwich North.
But in the longer run Lib Dems have a real dilemma for the GE.Poll figures like Comres would give them 65 seats but hand the Tories a
majority of around 80,and a long way from the hung Parliament.Put simply the lower Labour go the larger the Tory majority as there are more Labour seats vulnerable to the Tories than to the Lib Dems.
The Conservatives have a different dilemma.How long will it be before the strategy of keeping away from firm policy promises that would give labour a target,becomes more of a negative than a positive as thelectorate and opposition demand to know what they will do?Is it simply a question of delaying policy as late as possible giving “Fresh Policy” close to election time?
70. Gaz, when you bring out something as silly as Grayling’s “confiscate their nokias” policy you deserve to have the mickey taken.
98 I must agree he does not exactly come across as MP naterial!Beyond that I would not want him teaching my kids - every other sentence containing a ‘You know’.
104. Filler language, just shows he’s nervous tbh.
103. True.
Former Defence Secretary John Hutton has said Prime Minister Gordon Brown is “heading for trouble” unless he changes his message on the economy.
http://tinyurl.com/mml9fx
Way off topic
Am not big movie goer, and even less of a cook. (Though I am very hearty eater.)
BUT really cannot wait to see the new movie where Meryl Streep plays Julia Childs.
Because from the ads on TV, looks like Ms Streep has nailed (in the nice sense) this national treasure.
Julia Childs was born to be satirized (for example, very famously by Saturday Night Live) thanks to her high pitched voice and transatlantic extreme WASP manner (though in her case the connection on the other side of the pond was with Paris, not London).
But above all she was VERY popular with American TV audiences, and a true trend setter. For a lady with such a elite profile she was extremely approachable and attractive to Americans from a very diverse range of backgrounds. Especially if they appreciated good cooking and/or eating. For one thing, while always upholding high standards, she so obviously enjoyed what she was doing, and the people she was doing it with - that I think was her secret, she wsa a REAL people person.
Another was her rival for great TV cook of all time: Justin Wilson “The Cajun Chef”. If you’ve never seen him in action, you have my sympathy. He was a superb showman, an excellent cook from a people who created a truly great cuisine (unfortuantely exploited and butchered in restaurants around the globe) and a true gentleman. I know the later on good authority; years ago had a friend who got a flat tire on a Louisiana highway. With no spare. And the car that pulled over to help him out was driven by Justin Wilson.
I always like Ashcoft - He is not afraid to say F*ck you or a ‘polite’ term to Labour interests! Very impressive person from his busness skills to a thick political skin.
http://tinyurl.com/kmdlol
67 If Tim was a pint of beer he would be a pint of “Watneys Starlight”. ie cheap, light on content,completely lacking in taste full of froth, and now obsolete.
98 - couldn’t listen to the end ,that was painful.
Re - previous post - keeping a nuclear deterrent does not mean replacing Trident on like for like. Other sizes of bomb and delivery systems are possible. Trident replacement could surely be delayed as well.
Of more pressing issue is the 2 aircraft carriers (and their aircraft) and the 3rd tranche of Eurofighter Typhoons. And the FRES programme.
Polls look bad for labour - I know that’s obvious, but Labour need to face the facts. Another crunch is coming, but can labour really survive admitting that they have been hopelessly wrong headed and stupid for 12 years??
4. — Brown was far funnier, but thanks for the pointer, it made my day. Well Ricky Ponting dropping a catch made my day actually.
When Browns gone and Labour have completely renounced the last 12 years - what will Tim say?
Afghan helicopters - the way forward is probably buy surplus Russian kit from wherever possible then hand it on the Afghan Army. See Defence of the Realm.
107 (Martin Day) re Hutton on Brown.
It makes no difference. It’s the economy, not the message on the economy.
Voters know whether they, or their friends and families, have lost their jobs.
My company is looking for 50 redundancies. That’s not just 50 votes, or 50 times friends and families. That’s over a thousand employees worried they may be among the 50.
It’s the economy.
You Gov, CON 42% (+2) LAB 25% (+1) LD 18% (+1)
Wasn’t there a Brown ‘bouncette’ predicted this week after a whole raft of U-turns and dumped policies? Oh dear.
The only logical conclusion from all this twattery by Labour is that Brown is a Tory plant….!
111 - Well I can’t top that.
MTF claiming someone is lacking in content.
Sheer genius.
The substance free Miller Lite of posters.
Miller Lite = Wet Air
115
When the dissembling to the Liason Committee seeps thro to public consiosness, I expect Labour to do worse, in fact every day of delay will make it worse. The Voters want Labour, and Brown in paricular, OUT.
117 MTF, the piece with Arbuthnot about helicopters will stick in people’s minds, I think. Certainly those with a vested or patriotic interest in the wellbeing of our soldiers.
97 - re War Graves I shall be visiting the Somme next month. I always visit graves on behalf of people back home by taking a photograph and laying a wreath. One alas is not a grave but an inscription on the Theipval Memorial. I have been given his diary and this is almost a commentary on the actual battle and is worthy of publication.
Re tonights poll, time is running out and I cannot see how Labour can rob the Tories of an overall majority. I think it is now for the Tories to lose. They should just sit on their hands.
114. John L July 18th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Yes i agree - it will just get worse and worse! Browns fiscal policy and talk about cuts is barmy. If Labour were re-elelected and it looks very unlikely this country would suffer such a huge fall in international markets it is not worth contemplating. Economic policy under Labour at best is very irresponsible at worst it it is counter productive and will end in a finacial Dunkirk.
92 (Me) re John Hutton wants more helicopters.
Shame he didn’t feel so strongly while he was Defence Secretary. It’s a bit late now.
121, I strongly suspect he did, but lost the argument and utterly flunked the opportunity to raise the issue in a scathing resignation statement.
Norwich North.
The big unknown is the Greens share. Early ICM poll put them on 14% which has to be their baseline. Expect media boost in final days.
Con [above 41%, Gain] 43% - 45%
Lab [2nd or 3rd] 18% - 21%
Greens [2nd or 3rd] 19% - 14%
Lib Dems [4th] 12% - 10%
Others 8% - 10%
Comments?
Speaking of Trident, I’m located about a dozen miles as the crow flies from the major USN Trident sub base on the Pacific coast.
Once flew across Strait of Juan de Fuca right over one of these submarines as it was heading out to the opean ocean. Amazing sight.
The proportions showed as ‘Others’ by both YouGov and ComRes are higher than in the recent ICM poll:
ICM 13%
ComRes 17%
YouGov 15%
For the Others to score their usual GE share of 9-10%, there are still the following percentages to be redistributed:
ICM 3-4%
ComRes 7-8%
YouGov 5-6%
This is likely to go to the Conservatives and LDs to the extent of 2-3% each - none of these three polls give any evidence that Labour is benefitting from the decline of the Others.
Interesting to speculate as to Labour’s minimum level of support. From the last 3 polls, it’s looking like 25%, lower than the Conservatives’ 30%.
Another example of a stategic way of undermining the opposition and their families and a contrast with Browns wife:
http://tinyurl.com/nwzuxz
Brown has no shame and it is obvious he has drated his wife!
“Social mobility tsar Alan Milburn to attack Labour for failing disadvantaged pupils”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/5858564/Social-mobility-tsar-Alan-Milburn-to-attack-Labour-for-failing-disadvantaged-pupils.html
Strait of Juan de Fuca….erm how do you pronounce that?
128 - I was going to say ‘that’
seriously - Whan day foocha
126 - Nice lady she may be, but she is just not ‘celebrity material’, and attempts to pretend otherwise just make her look rather sad.
121/122-According to the article:
“While Mr Hutton’s article does not refer directly to decisions made during his time at the Ministry of Defence, it strongly suggests that he clashed with Mr Brown on the issue earlier this year.”
In terms of the thread before - Trident is the only weapons system that cannot be taken out in a pre- emptive stike.
If a country hostile to the UK wanted to prevent retaliation from the UK in a non-Trident UK. They could simply target the places where nuclear bombs or Inter-contental missiles were based and take them out before Nuclear forces that are land based could do anything!
Folks may not like it but the Trident system prevents some countries from having a go!
“Three’s not a crowd for new Labour”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/martin_ivens/article6719169.ece
130, she’s not a prop: she’s Female Colleague Number One, and present leader of the Supreme Leader’s Affection League Table (just edging Ed Balls).
“Three’s not a crowd for new Labour”
Its the number of, non-postal, votes they will get at the next election,
130. archroy July 18th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
She is just Browns political Pawn - they are both ridiculous and completly out of touch! Her intervention on political subjects is so predictable it makes me laugh!
100
Absolute rot. If they do not win this game it will have nothing to do with that decision. In fact they gave themselves a much better chance of winning by not enforcing the follow on. You seem to forget that whatever happens they have to bowl the Aussies out twice to win and score more runs. The chance of both of those things happening was hugely inhanced by the decision to bat on a good wicket and leave the Aussies to bat ona deteriorating wicket.
If the match is a draw due to the weather then that would have been the case whatever they chose to do. Again they have to bowl them out twice.
“Got away with it” has nothing to do with it. He made the right decision and it seems clear that whatever he had chosen to do you would have disagreed with on principle.
127 Yet another unhappy Labour politician turning on the way the party has failed to deliver. Anyone would think that the Parliamentary session having ended, the starting pistol to try and remove Gordon has been already fired…
The article about the poll:
“Job fears help Tories widen poll lead over Labour”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6719126.ece
Would anyone put it past Brown calling a GE, the moment Cameron goes on holiday…. I think the next three months won’t the the desert people think it might be.
140. I doubt Cameron would stay in Devon, Wales, the lake district or Scotland long enough to allow any Brown coup!
138, they missed a number of gaping chances to axe him. They could yet do it, but I think it’d risk doing terminal damage, or at last very longlasting damage.
Labour’s diarchy will be fascinating for historians. The two titans at the top, constantly engaged in an intra-party Cold War, with their acolytes and servants fighting battles. And yet nobody thought what would happen with a dead cert successor hell-bent on crushing possible rivals. The fact the PLP has all the backbone of a splat of green didn’t help.
Now look where they are. They have a single heavyweight and everybody hates him. Political anoraks are grateful for an incompetent and weak Chancellor because he prevents someone absolutely diabolical permanently shafting the public finances. Our Foreign Secretary has offended the largest democracy on Earth, the Business Secretary is a puppeteer playing with the PM and the Home Secretary is a ‘hack politician’. Oh, and then we have the openly bigoted anti-white, anti-male Deputy Leader.
136,I think paul dacre,the editor of the daily mail has had a word with his mate brown,to push his wife out more.The mail seems to be in love with her ,god it makes me sick.
142 Sounds like a dream ticket to me
99 - hilarious. What’s more, I can’t believe that presenter works for the BBC; he should have just thrown him a few soft balls etc…
Previous thread Amazingly, I believe the last surviving veteran of the American Civil War only passed away in the 1950s!
The Guinness Book of Records used to list John B. Salling (1846-1959) as the last surviving veteran of the American Civil War, but his case (and various others) have since been discredited. There is considerable academic and documentary debate about the various candidates for who the last one really was, but yes it is likely that he would have died in the 1950s.
Patrick Moore … has met … one of the Wright Brothers, Yuri Gagarin and Neil Armstrong
… and he’s got a 101-year-old typewriter
140 – I believe Gordon’s predicament is so dire that an immanent G.E call must be anticipated by Tory HQ and preparations covering this scenario factored in.
Costly, time consuming and a buggeration factor for all concerned…..but necessary all the same.
28: Martin - the strength of the otherwise awful system of voting by walking through lobbies for 8 minutes is that it’s very easy to have a word with the PM or any other minister - just hang about for a few minutes in any important vote and grab them when they turn up. That gets you, say, a minute of attention. If you want a proper discussion for 20 minutes you need to book it through the PM’s PPS - that can take a couple of weeks unless it’s demonstrably very urgent.
Obviously MPs use the option with restraint to avoid a “You again!” reflex, but it’s a recgonised part of the system and it’s unheard of for the backbencher not to get a polite hearing and reply. Some Ministers manage to give the impression that they’d love to listen all day (Ruth Kelly, Charles Clarke and David Blunkett were all especially good at that - so is David Miliband), others rather less so. On the Tory side, Oliver Letwin is famously patient and polite to absolutely everyone, as was John Major; Cameron, is reputed to have a bit more of the ‘oh do get on with it’ air.
P139 Key finding that, when linked to the widening gap between the parties, dooms Labour whenever the election is called - and suggests the longer they delay, the worse will be their defeat:
“People remain worried about unemployment, with anxieties returning to the levels of last winter following the release of statistics last week showing a record rise in the jobless total in the latest three months. Nearly half of people, 48%, fear that they or a close member of their family will lose their job as a result of the financial crisis, up from 43% last month.”
143 - I can see the reasoning behind that move. Too many people in Britain are obsessed by this celeb culture that has sprung up. How this fits in with a Parliamentary system where she is not a candidate for parliament is open for debate.
Me @ 131.
Hutton resigned from the MoD. Hutton did not resign from the MoD over helicopters.
Utterly disastrous for Labour. The Tory figure is irrelevant if it stays high 30s/low 40s.
The sad thing is, we would have a fighting chance if we replaced Gord, there is a lot of LD support to be mopped up. Unfortunately I fear that chance has been and gone.
116
Tim(”more brighter”), I generally posts links and read what other people say before I comment, I then contribute. I don’t behave in the odious manner you do, with your continuous smears, attempts to derail threads and the nauseating type of post you wrote yesterday morning.
As an example to why people should never vote Labour, you are in a class of your own.
109. I loved watching her cook with Jacques Pepin when I lived in the US.
152 NU, d’you mean of achieving a hung Parliament or an outright majority victory?
124. Used to watch them coming down the Clyde regularly , huge when you are close to them. They had to dodge the ferries and fishing boats on their way down.
83. Who is the newly discovered WWI veteran (allegedly)? I haven’t heard of any other British veterans apart from Harry Patch (UK) and Claude Choules (Australia). And what is the “irrefutable” evidence?
State Opening of Parliament set for Wednesday 18 November.
Nicely timed to make it as awkward as possible to remove Brown pre Christmas.
Labour Party Conference ends on 1 October. Assuming Brown doesn’t voluntarily resign at the Conference, any attempt to remove him soon afterwards would mean there would not be time to hold a Leadership Election and get a new leader in place before 18 November.
Once Brown is through 18 November then there’s no time to get rid of him pre Christmas.
There will also be the PBR to deal with - was on 24 November last year, no date announced yet for 2009.
109 Malcomlg - just for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7mtEoMFJ60
92. The most interesting bit of the article for readers of this site is surely this bit
Meanwhile, Lord Mandelson was forced to put a stop to a “smear” campaign aimed at discrediting Gen Sir Richard Dannatt, Chief of the General Staff, which was started inside the Government.
Ministers and Labour MPs had attempted to paint Sir Richard, who publicly called for more troops and helicopters for Helmand, as a Tory sympathiser who was “playing politics”.
The intervention of the influential Business Secretary was seen as a humiliation for the under-fire Defence Secretary, Bob Ainsworth, who was forced to order his ministerial team to present a “united front” with the military.
The spirit of Damian McBride is alive and well in
the bunkerDowning Street148. Nick Palmer MP July 18th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
I did wonder, i think the voting system interesting but i think if you are percieved to be not on board by a PM or other minister - you are probably tolerated rather than accepted! One vote seldom changes things! More a case of tactically arranging folk and being the spokeperson!
I am always amused by my thoughts of the current speaker running to a division pre 2001! He was still Conservative then and i have seldom seen a chap with such small legs run!
I think Nick Westminister needs a bit of a change with voting! It can be done electronically within Westminister by very secure means and ironically it leaves rebells or their representives a better hand to play in chaning legislation IMO!
151-JohnL-I never said he did. Morris said he suspected Hutton lost the argument, and I pointed out the part of the article that backed up his point.
137 I have been saying since yesterday that the follow on should be enforced on here, so I wouldn’t have disagreed with him ‘whatever’.
You seem to assume the Lord pitch will deteriorate - whereas the evidence of the last few years suggests that it gets slower and easier on days 4 and 5.
My view is not exactly unique - the entirety of the Sky commentary team were saying he should enforce it.
Add Gus Fraser on the highlights to the list that feel the follow on should have been enforced - as well as Aussie Dean Jones.
157 - a link to the other WW1 survivor
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1088004/Im-forgotten-survivor-World-War-One-says-108-year-old-man.html
160-ScottP-For you then:
“How smears against top general backfired”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/5858415/How-smears-against-top-general-backfired.html
159. Marcia. Thank you very much.
165 - That shows exactyl how crap Browns media stuff is
Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Tory defence and foreign secretary, came down on the side of Labour ministers this weekend when he claimed: “It is dangerous, it cannot continue that a senior serving officer publicly criticises the government.”
In normal times, ministers would have been able to leap on Sir Malcolm’s comments as evidence that senior officers should not put public pressure on governments – whatever their political colour.
However, because of the grubby campaign to discredit General Dannatt, ministers had, not for the first time, vacated the moral high ground.
163 to add - had they bowled properly this morning it would have given them a far healthier first innings lead
Analysis from Sky showed in an hours play there were 3 balls that would have hit the stumps.
Broad ad 2 on the stumps in 7 overs and seemed to have been instructed to keep banging it in short - and yet there were 2 slips and 2 gullies - worrying tactics really.
165, on that subject, I saw a bit of Newsnight where the ever-obedient Crick claimed to have ‘learnt’ of exciting new revelations, basically that Dannatt had advised against Brown going to Afghanistan due to security but then took journalists instead. I wonder how Crick ‘learnt’ this. Probably in the same way Maguire ‘learnt’ of Draper and McBride’s meeting and invited himself.
167
So Tim, why do you follow the Labour smear policy ?
165. Cheers.
Sky could be interesting tomorrow morning (before the cricket and golf get underway)
The Conservative leader David Cameron will tell Adam about what he has called the “scandal” of too few troops and not enough equipment and helicopters in Afghanistan.
So will he be able to promise what his shadow defence secretary was unable to do and guarantee to ringfence the defence budget, like health and overseas aid?
We will talk to the Business Secretary Lord Mandelson about how the Government can cut public spending to balance the books - without affecting frontline services.
And we will ask him if the proposed Lords reform means he could be heading back to the Commons - and succeeding Gordon.
If the News of the World poll is to be believed, Labour are going to get a right kicking in the Norwich North by-election on Thursday.
It is the first test of public opinion since the MPs’ expenses revelations.
The neighbouring MP Charles Clarke will tell Adam why Labour can still win it and why the paper is wrong to predict that he will lose his Norwich South seat at the General Election.
170 - its now been pointed out to you on numerous occasions how dull your obsession with mu posts is.
Give it a rest.
171 - What News of the World poll is that?
146. A plausible contender for the last surviving US Civil War veteran was Albert Woolson, who died in 1956.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Woolson
Further to the comments on WWI veterans, Wiki lists four known veterans still alive, with one other whose claim to veteran status is unproven:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_surviving_veterans_of_World_War_I
172 - It must be reassuring for you Tim that when Labour are at last removed from office, your experience of twisting and squirming means you are more than qualified to find employment as a cement mixer.
172
Tim…. and I’ll keep pointing it out to you till you stop smearing.
155. Lol, I meant a fighting chance of avoiding annihilation. The very VERY best we can now hope for is Johnson being elected, shoring up the core vote along with some waverers in an attempt to hit 30%, and then hope there is a poor Tory turnout (idiot Sun reading types who constantly switch and will just forget to vote), leaving them on 36-37, and maybe squeezing a Hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party.
And that is the very best case scenario. And even that is not likely to happen. Ah well.
I think it’s always easier for pundits to say they would enforce the follow-on rather than for the actual captain to do it.
It makes the draw less likely but also opens you up to a much greater chance of defeat.
ie 210 ahead, enforce follow-on, Aussies get 450, then we need 240 to win batting last with no chance of a draw. Could easily end in defeat.
By not enforcing follow-on we bat under no pressure and can set them 500+ batting last, so eliminate chance of defeat (in theory!)
The ‘Others’ from the Sunday Times poll are broken down as follows
UK 6
Green 4
SNP/PC 3
BNP 2
Other 1
179 UK =UKIP
165 - And no prizes for guessing from which source those “Mandy, Doughty Fighter for Truth and Integrity, Saves The Day Again” stories emanate?
177, can’t blame me for asking, some think a Labour win could happen.
I agree hung Parliament territory is probably Labour’s best realistic hope. Look at it this way, it’s better for the country and for Labour that Brown gets smashed so badly he can’t recover.
If that Sky report is to be believed, we’re going to get a new Norwich North poll in the News of the World tomorrow. Could be useful for judging who’s coming second.
122 - (MD) that is my suspicion too
171. Oooooooooo looks like we’ve got a Norwich North poll. I was going to have an early night, but I think I’ll stay up now.
182. To be honest, even as someone who will probably end up voting Labour, I’d be more than willing to give Cameron a term in office as opposed to Brown being there for another five years.
As SeanT constantly points out, can anyone seriously imagine another five years of Gord?
I voted LD in the locals and Green in the Euros, and enough people did that to give the PLP all the chance they needed to remove Brown. They didn’t take it. I have lost all sympathy for them.
Whoever would have thought that the person who would come out with the most credit would be James Purnell.
186: I suspect that sentiment could be brutally tapped into by a Tory election campaign. Just imagine a poster of a close-up Gordon gurning, with the caption “Five more years”. Simple and effective.
Reading 171 again, it sounds like the NOTW have also polled Charles Clarkes seat as well and he’s on course to be booted out as well.
Am I being cynical, but according to Jon Craig, the count for the Norwich North will begin at 9.30am on Friday morning, with a result aprox 12.30pm.
Time needed to fix the postal votes?
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:178c1fc9-9680-457a-82db-add88f48e27f
183 / 185.
SkyNews are reporting the figures….
Con 34%
Lab 30%
I’m afraid I didn’t get the others….
A sketh from Norwich by Peter Riddell
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6719116.ece
‘May claims that voters think the Tories have dealt with the expenses issue better than Labour; they’re hearing this on the doorstep every day. Smith has about her the air of someone who knows they are going to win, right down to refusing to take part in a hustings on local TV with the other candidates. Prior engagements, she says.’
191 - sketh = sketch
X 2
190. Thats pretty close still?
Just discovered this Spitting Image Classic on youtube. Doesn’t it still echo true today?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmOQHXD9vhg
190 - these figures match last months poll for NN of 34/30 ……
thatis the same as the last poll?
Just been on the NOTW website. Sarah Brown is apparently the ‘VIP Guest Editor’. WTF??? Do they have no shame???? (And I would say the same if the fragrant Sam took on this role. Do politicians take us for fools??? Given this is the NOTW there may be some mileage in that actually…)
164. I hadn’t heard of Ned Hughes, but only a few seconds of googling reveals that he is unfortunately not a surviving WWI veteran:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherwood_Hughes
190.
…so Labour are still within the MoE?
As I pointed out the other day, anyone risking a large amount of money on a by-election is extremely foolish.
I do think the Tories will win though.
The Sky News Norwich poll is probably not new
re 190 Those Norwich figures look like the three week old ICM poll.
We’ve already had a scare with them when http://www.Politics.co.uk reported it yesterday as though it was a new poll.
Ignore.
190. Clearly a Lib Dem barchart will claim that the Lib Dems are on 36% then?
re 200 See http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2009_jun_ucu_norwich_poll.pdf
It’s very old
http://www.Politics.co.uk reported the poll yesterday and it got picked up by Yahoo news.
Lord Sainsbury is reported to be defecting from Labour to The Conservatives. I humbly suggest that is more important than any poll. Sadly, I think he is a very nasty and opportunistic person. Still, if it helps destroy Labour I can live with it.
202 As a member of UCU I’m still to get round to finding out why they were using my subs to commission an opinion poll at a time when universities are making significant redundancies and there are bigger issues to deal with…
204 - Who is reporting this?
Well thats a let-down.
207 - you can an early night after all - same with me - goodnight all.
This cannot be serious…. can it????
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1200633/5m-motorists-crime-victim-compensation-slashed.html
“Victims of violent crime are to have their compensation slashed if they have previously committed minor offences such as speeding.
Individual payments to assault and rape victims will be reduced by up to £37,500 as part of a £25million public- spending cuts programme ordered by the Government, it was claimed last night.
Five million motorists could be affected - with magistrates fining up to a million drivers in a year and their convictions becoming ’spent’ only after five years.
The Tories have launched an attack on the ‘revolting’ move.
Shadow Justice Secretary Dominic Grieve said: ‘People will be astonished that Ministers are targeting victims of crime simply because they may have committed minor traffic violations - for which they have already paid the penalty - while prisoners released early are being given compensation for the food and accommodation they would have received free.
‘The idea that a rape victim or the parents of a murdered child should have their compensation docked for a speeding conviction years earlier is a revolting proposition.
‘Labour is cutting compensation for victims of crime by £25million while spending millions of pounds on spin and bureaucracy.’
If this gains any traction at all……
Do they want to be wiped out?
206.
Here;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6718065.ece
I am not sure what to believe any more. If the Lord Sainsbury story is true….
210 Is that an actual full on defection ?
Maggie Thatcher Fan July 18th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
He is thinking country first!
Sure he might still donate to Labour, but at least he is thinking country first and where we will go rather than party first! A welcome change from Labour!
Don’t know if fitaloon is around but a story re us using outsourced helicopters just seems to have got a whole lot worse for government
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1200620/Now-borrowing-Russian-helicopters-fight-Taliban.html
“British frontline troops in Afghanistan are so short of helicopters and transport planes that they are being bailed out by the Russians.
The Mail on Sunday has established that the Ministry of Defence is using civilian Russian-built Mi-8 and Mi-26 transport helicopters to ferry supplies and soldiers in Afghanistan. The pilots are freelance Russians and Ukrainians.”
“Even more extraordinary is that elite British special forces troops have been forced to use helicopters from a Third World nation to mount covert operations because of a desperate lack of UK aircraft.
Senior defence sources have confirmed to The Mail on Sunday that the SAS, the SBS and the Special Forces Support Group are using troop-carrying helicopters on loan from another country’s army.”
“An Army source said many senior officers were ‘dismayed’ about being forced to borrow helicopters.
He said: ‘Aviation is the key to success. It gives you freedom of movement and the element of surprise.”
Behold: Stone, Patch and Allingham last November:
http://i26.tinypic.com/24flpmt.jpg
http://i29.tinypic.com/sdzm1k.jpg
http://i30.tinypic.com/n6zuv4.jpg
210/211 Doesn’t sound like Sainsbury has defecte,d more like he has decided his cash would do better preparing people for Government & influencing the future shape & development of civil service & ministries. He doesn’t seem enamoured with Gordon Brown but the article doesn’t say he is no longer Labour.
212 I didn’t read it as that. But there is a fairly obvious subtext that Labour are going to lose - and Gordon inspires no confidence.
So now where are Labour going to get the money to piss up a wall for an election they look doomed to lose badly?
Have you heard the new tongue-twister?
Cronkite conks from chronic bronchitis.
211. It’s hard to put any other interpretation on it but he leaves the “Vote Cameron” line for later!
Speaking as a civil servant I can well understand his criticisms and frustrations! The whole government machine was designed for the 19th century it needs to be overhauled. That could well mean that ministers should cease to be MP’s but still be questioned by Parliament etc. We need to have a proper separation of the executive and legislative so as to prevent the worst excesses of the past!
Floater July 18th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
Thats what Labour does when they run out of cash!
Shocking! Defence should be the first, the last - the everything!
Trident or its replacemnt is never more important given the circumstances. Trident of course keeps the homeland safe, whatever the other cuts!
204- He criticized Labour but he didn’t say he was defecting. His new Institute is providing training sessions for Shadow Cabinet but Labour members were also invited.
215. So I guess Patch is the one going to Westminster Abbey then?
“General Dannatt ‘turned down bombproof vehicles
Army chief General Sir Richard Dannatt is facing a revolt from his top brass as they accuse him of blunders that undermined the safety of troops in Afghanistan.
They claim he made a series of incorrect decisions that led to delays in sending equipment needed to protect soldiers from roadside bombs.
The criticism comes as an attempt by Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth to stop Labour sources smearing Sir Richard was in danger of backfiring.
He took the unprecedented step of writing to his four junior Ministers, Bill Rammell, Kevan Jones, Quentin Davies and Lord Drayson, ordering them not to encourage media attacks on Sir Richard, who publicly complained about equipment shortages.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1200630/General-Dannatt-turned-bombproof-vehicles.html
190. Ha! I wonder what that could mean…..
Just back from Norwich, Tory vote holding up well, No labour canvassing or leaflets in my bit. Lib Dems will grab second imo.
217 Lord Paul & the Mittals?…. oops Jack Straw has decided that Commonwealth citizens with non domiciled status can no longer give donations.
Though of course the Mittal’s “British” company (as Tony Blair asserted) still can donate.
Sounds more like Sainsbury is covering all bases, more than a defection. However, does beg the question, if the Tories win, will he suddenly be put himself forward to “help out”. I wonder if Adonis will too, given his outlook on education is very similar to Tory proposals and a million miles from Labour direction in this area under Brown.
224 It could mean its an old poll Rod.. dont get too exited…
226 - But so can Ashcroft through his UK based companies, and that is how he donates a lot of his money at the moment anyway.
226 Mittal has £16 billion less than he did with which to humour lost causes:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4882351.ece
Jeez FC, Prince Nasim has left himself go hasn’t he!
231 (cont) left -> let
222. Either him or the one that is left!
RIP, either way! Those guys experienced stuff - thankfully we will not see. Whether they were in the trenches or flying above. That brings it home how bad chemical warefare actually happened to be! Henry saw it and and told the tale! Even worse Nuclear warefare which only happened in WWII has been put on hold. But those folks in WW1 - had an experince no one else would want.
225. woody662 July 18th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Yes, but they wont win as Green and Labour are at the same amounts!
Sunday Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-Sunday-July-19-2009/Media-Gallery/200907315340976?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15340976_The_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Sunday_July_19%2C_2009
Hamed’s been a tubby for years. Hes one step from hawaiian shirts that one.
231 What time is the Khan fight?>
219 : The Oncoming Storm @ 22:48
“That could well mean that ministers should cease to be MP’s ”
To me that sounds very sensible (and we should forget the ennoblement route too) as long as ministers can be questioned by Parliament in a very real and meaningful way and the person who appoints the ministers is elected and, most importantly Parliament controls the money down to departmental/project (if we take Lord Sainsbury’s suggestion on board)level.
Having to appoint ministers from the ranks of the MPS of the party with a majority just guarantees that a high percentage of them will be incompetent buffoons and that the efficient and effective administration of the Country will take second place.
236 - Tuddy! Understatement of the year! Bit like saying that Gordo is mildly unpopular!
237 - Its now.
128, 129 - very interesting from NPMP re: the lobby scrum (note the “r” there!)
As for electronic voting, it has some obvious advantages but also a few downsides.
For example, remember how the House GOP leadership kept the machines open so they could twist enough arms for a close, important vote back when Tom DeLay was running things . . . and running up the deficit for no good reason? Then the GOP howled when the Dems used a similiar trick last year?
Would also point out that one potential drawback of electronic voting is that, depending upon the system, it may be possible for “proxy” votes to be cast.
For example, in the WA State Legislature, the state House of Representatives uses electronic voting. In addition, each member has an individual desk, and the desks are arrainged in pairs. Supposedly members have been know to cast votes on behalf of seatmates who are running late or otherwise available. Though supposedly this is done only is the absentee is actually in the building, otherwise could prove VERY embarrasing (for example, vote is recorded at same time member is documented as being somewhere other than the State Capitol.
Note that the WA State Senate uses voice voting, with the Secretary of the Senate (or their staff) calling on each senator by name to cast her or his vote. BTW this is called a “roll call”. So no funny business there! But then as they say, the House is a mob, the Senate a club.
From the perspective of the H of C, MPs would be nuts to substitute electronic voting for for the current system, which as NPMP explains gives the lowliest backbencher a fighting chance for a quick face-to-face with frontbenchers.
Should be an interesting fight. If its anything like the fights on free to air ITV4 tonight it’ll be cracking.
Ive heard rumours Koltenik is there under sufferance but then Khans trainer has severe doubts about his protege…toss up. I think will come on for the weight rise but Koltenik is durable though sailed close to the wind on his weight.
Norwidh North
Anyone had sight of the NOTW poll due to be discussed on Sky News tomorrow morning. Nothing on NOTW website but dead tree NOTW must be out by now.
225. Lib Dems second? I am not saying you’re wrong: you are after all much closer to the ground than I am. However, I don’t see the logic. Lib Dems are virtually static in the national polls. There is no prospect of the Tories being beaten and the anti-tory vote is split at least three ways. Vote gains can therefore only come from disaffected Labour voters. Some will switch to Lib Dems (and Tories) but I see no disproportionate swing. A large proportion of Labour voters may stay at home. Protest votes will be lent at a by-election. The Greens are far more likely to be the beneficiary here.
I would be interested in your comments.
P.S. NOTW poll seems to be ICM poll which predated moving of writ for election. Nothing new here.
233. That’s what I meant. Patch is (iirc) the last one left…
Bill Stone died last year.
Sky’s report on the ICM poll in the News of the World mentions the Lib Dems as being on 15%. Since this too is identical to the poll rating in the earlier ICM poll, it does indeed seem to be the same one. If it is a different poll, the coincidence that all three parties should have exactly the same rating from the same pollster a month apart after intensive campaigning seems pretty unlikely.
“Chelsea too much for Sounders FC”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sounders/2009495962_sounders19.html
Result from today’s game at Qwest Field (aka Taxpayers Park) before crowd of 65k
Sounders FC 0
Chelsea 2
“The Chelsea-Sounders FC friendly Saturday was more of a friendly dismantling, if such a thing could ever exist.”
……
“The reaction from the crowd — the third-largest for a soccer match at Qwest Field and the largest ever for a USL Sounders or Sounders FC game — was one of awe as opposed to dismay, though the vast majority of the fans were rooting for the Rave Green.”
I freely admit my cash is on the Ukranian, mainly because his price was too large compared to his chances.
245 - Find it hard to back Khan, as don’t have a lot of confidence in his ability to him to take a punch (especially chin).
Uk politics is so, so boring. None of them deserve to win!
Sign of the times - just went across the street to get a chilled beverage from local espresso bar (by city ordinance we have one every other block in Seattle). My barista said she was sorry to be missing the Sounders-Chelsea match, but is going to watch it via Tivo tonight.
Soccer is really starting to penetrate into American popular culture. It is played and popular with the rising generation of middle-class kids and young adults from suburbs coast to coast and similar turf in upscale small cities, college towns & the like. In such turf it’s well-established at the high school level, also youth leagues.
Only a matter of time - but that could be considerable - before it makes it to less affluent urban neighborhoods. Key there will be emergence of professional soccer as a true big business, meaning that there’s something in it for poor kids.
One question is, will soccer follow the model of US baseball (and international football) where professional players are recruited strait from high schools; in US baseball most go though minor leagues (Toledo Mud Hens) before breaking into the majors (New York Yankees)? OR will it follow model of US football & basketball, where college teams both recruit from high schools and serve as “minor leagues” for the pros. In fact, in most big universities these players are already “pros” for all intents and purposes.
191. Norwich North.
The Sunday Times article by Rod Liddle which you reference confirms my expectations that the MSM will be trying to pump the Green vote over the next few days. This is another argument against Lib Dems coming second.
248 - Do you think the ever growing Latino population in the US is also having a positive effect on the popularity of “Soccer”?
The poll reported on Sky is nearly a month old.
Pop Quiz -
WHY is it that in the US Senate, Ted Kennedy, Richard Lugar and even John Ensign are 1st class Senators . . . BUT Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell and John McCain are not?
Khan is showing tonight that a glass chin only becomes an issue when you are hit on it and my money, small stake as it was, looks done. It doesn’t wipe my gains on an earlier fight result tonight but still I misread Khan’s control.
251 - their term of office ends in 2012
Did someone mention something about Amir Khan waggling his muscles about? Where? Why isn’t it on ITV like it used to be? Grrrr……
254 - Sky appeared with a lot more dosh, and off Khan went to PPV.
249, Oracle - that’s a good point, think answer is yes. For example, in a local suburban mall (one of the nicest in the area or the nation for that matter) there is a Mexican restaurant in the food court that shows Mexican soccer league broadcasts (from one of the local Spanish language cable stations) on the weekends, and when they do the place is packed with Mexican immigrant families plus a few Anglos.
However, for many of the children of such immigrants, the opportunities to actually play the game are somewhat limited. Because the neighborhoods were they live tend NOT to be the ones with strong youth and high school soccer leagues. However, believe this is starting to change. And demand from young Latinos (and some Latinas) will help the process along.
255. Presumably PPV = Pay Per View? Grrr…… Can’t he be paid per gorgeousness? There ought to be a Hunks channel on Freeview…
242. See the link at 174. There are four surviving veterans from all combatant nations, of whom three served the forces of HMKGV, two were British but only one (Patch) still lives in the UK.
261 - David Herdson - do you have tomorrow morning covered?
254, edmund - well done, somebody give this man a pig’s bladder on a stick! Or nominate him to replace Senator Ensign!
253: have the first three got away with murder?
260, JL - seems you have somewhat different criteria for judging boxing than most fight fans!
Perhaps you should request that your cable provider offer Turkish oil wrestling as part of your “package”?
255 - In the long run you won’t lose betting on the opponents of British Boxers.
The Hatton odds were bonkers, this one was a 1/2 7/2 avaialble odds fight where the real odds were 4/6 7/4
262. Yes - just uploading it now (still photoless though).
Speaking of soccer in Seattle, one longtime fan outpost has been a small British-style pub owned and much patronized by expats.
Sadly must also report that this is one of the very few bars cited by the King County Health Department for repeated violations of the Washington State smoking ban.
What was it that Kipling said about “lesser breeds without the law”?
4% swingback to a hung Parliament.
4% swingFORWARD to Labour disappearing as a political force.
266, tim - “opponents of British Boxers”
French-cut briefs?
268. But Kipling also said ‘a woman is only a woman, but a good cigar is a smoke’. One can’t build an empire by pandering to puritans, after all.
266 - You can see the same phenomenon at work in the Betfair odds on the Open. Currently Fisher and Westwood are clear first and second favourites. Some of the odds down the field are just bonkers.
************ BETTING POST ******************
According to reliable sources, in January 1910 “at Lloyd’s the Liberals where narrow favorites at 6:4 on, at the Stock Exchange the odds stood at evens.”
source: Neal Blewett, “The Peers, the Parties and the People: The General Elections of 1910″
267 - I’ll do the photo now.
271, bill d - and Sigsmund Freud said “sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.” (source: Frazier rerun)
272 - Take advantage of it. The Hatton fight was one of the best betting oportunities of the last year.
Haven’t looked at the open odds but I suspect the same process is at work.
PS.
Amir Khans dad is the anti BNP vaccine
253 Nich Starling.
Your blog reports Rod Liddle’s visit to Norwich which resulted in his ST article. You state: “Oh what a fool Mr Liddle will look on Friday.” I agree that Liddle is pumping the Greens. Others will follow suit this week.
What is your logic for the Lib Dems coming second? I accept that the 2005 GE results (Lab 44.9%; Con 33.2%; LD 16.2%; Grn 2.7%; Oth 3.1%) suggest that your party is most likely to come second if there was a catastrophic collapse in the Labour vote. However Greens have advanced since in Local and Euro elections and stood at 14% in the ‘opening’ ICM poll on the by-election. Obviously, the Lib Dem by election machine punches far above the weight of the Greens. Notwithstanding the above, I am yet to be convinced the Lib Dems will be the major beneficiary of defecting or protesting voters.
252, Oracle - BTW, did you note the byline for the Seattle Times story on the Sounders FC-Chelea game?
277. Correction: protesting voters = protesting Labour voters
“Labour may never, ever win power on its own again
The two-party domination of British politics is coming to an end as more and more disaffected voters reject both of them”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/19/rawnsley-labour-conservatives
David - done and scheduled. Good piece.
Night all.
4×1..7 matches without winning.
“John Rentoul: We’ll let you know, Mr Blair
A bilingual global statesman would be an ideal first European president, but the job will go to a milder candidate”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-well-let-you-know-mr-blair-1752210.html
280 - Andrew Rawnsley will be put on the naughty step by our host:
“The Conservatives really ought to be performing much better than this. Labour was routinely polling in the high forties and quite often above 50% when it was on its way back to power before 1997.”
The basic thrust of his piece is correct, mind.
There’s an interesting aside:
“One veteran party strategist recently shared with me his private fear that Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election could be as low as 28%.”
On its present trajectory, Labour should be hoping for 28%, not fearing it.
“Tycoons pledge to stop bankrolling Labour if ‘non-dom’ tax bill passes”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/19/tycoons-bankrolling-labour-tax-bill
277 I live in the Sewell ward of Norwich North. I can report that here the poster/Board war is being decisively won by the Greens - a few Lanour and LibDems - very few Tories. In the neigbouring Mile Cross ward - the poorest in the constituency - the poster/board war is pretty well tied between UKIP and the Greens.
Make of that what you will!
284- “On its present trajectory, Labour should be hoping for 28%, not fearing it.”
280 - IF that’s true, then Labour Party in Great Britain would appear to be following trail blazed by Fianna Fail in the Republic of Ireland. And without waiting for STV.
BTW, at same time that UUP is merging (kinda) with Conservative (and Unionist) Party, the SDLP is in merger talks with FF.
Not beyond bounds of reason to forsee a day when this kind of thing to lead to a United Ireland within (for all practical purposes anyway) a (re) United Kingdom.
One step might be (re)admittance of Republic of Ireland into the Commonwealth. If South Africa could do it, why not Ireland?
The ghost of that great logician Eamon deValera might just go along, after all, would be almost identical to his pre-Treaty viewpoint.
284 - Andrew Rawnsley will be put on the naughty step by our host:
“The Conservatives really ought to be performing much better than this. Labour was routinely polling in the high forties and quite often above 50% when it was on its way back to power before 1997.
not the naughty step.
If “quite often” was replaced by “occasionally” he’s correct
Walter Cronkite CBS tribute now on Sky News.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD3wOuK5sYU
Walter Cronkite at his best
I remember that a while ago there was friendly rivalry between Lewis Hamilton and Amir Khan about who would become world champion first. But Amir Khan said in an interview that “first” depended on age rather than date.
Lewis Hamilton was born on 07.01.85 and became world champion on 02.11.08.
Amir Khan was born on 08.12.86 and became world champion on 18.07.09.
Therefore Amir has won the race! Hooray!
As well as Hooray! because he’s the boxing world champion and Hooray! because he’s gorgeous with his gig bulging lovely muscles.
I do find the 1996/97 polling narrative that so many journos hitch their caravan to a very odd one. Other than we know that the polling over-estimated Labour support, it is as if they it is impossible for the Tories to win the next GE unless they poll those kind of numbers. Were they saying that about Labour in 2001 and 2005? I don’t remember any real suggestions that Labour wouldn’t win in both those years, even though they weren’t polling anywhere near the 1996 levels.
If the Tories have a greater than 5-7% lead is the all important aspect of any polling. What happened 12 years old is about a relevant as what happened 50 years ago.
286. I work in the heart of Mile Cross. What an absoliute joke about the poster war in Mile Cross (do you know the ward boundaries ?). Labour have most posters up in the estates, but the main road are being won by the Lib Dems. Greens have some in the estates but are third on posters. I work in the heart of Mile Cross (Brasier Road) and travel throught the constituency to and from home.
You would have to ooint out that if the Greens can’t win the poster war in Sewell then they really would be lost. As for UKIP posters, forget advertising hoardings. UKIP have not got a single board up in Mile Cross that I have seen. Have you driven along the Drayton High Road ?
277. In know th maths, but I also know the level of campaigning that has happened. Outside of the City wards the Greens have bee anonymous. you can’t come second by drawing with Labour in the city wards (where Labour have been working hard too) and then coming 4th or 5th in the Broadland Wards.
Ignore the vote in 2005. The Lib Dem candidate was not local and was selected late. It was a token campaign with people from Norwich North piling in to Norwich South.
286, justin - thanks for report from the trenches, keep ‘em coming!
Based on my (US) experience (which might not be relevant but perhaps is somewhat) I’m a skeptic/cynic when it comes to electoral “sign wars”.
Why? Because here some campaigns base a huge amount of their strategy and resources, while others do nothing or next to it, or a moderate amount.
Here yardsigns are mostly used for state legislative and local government candidates, though some statewide campaigns also use them.
In WA State yardsigns and billboard (window signs are pretty rare here except occassionally in store windows; Obama had a sizeable number of these in Seattle last year) have been a favorite strategy for many right-wing Republicans.
For example, back in 1996 the Republican nominee for Governor blanketed the state - especially suburbs and rural areas, but also some in the heart of liberal progressive Seattle - with signage.
Signs do raise candidate name recognition and imply solid grass roots support (particularly if located on private property as opposed to public right-of-ways) as well as above-average organization. Which are things that impress the media, opinion leaders and average voters.
However, they are hardly a silver bullet, or make up for other important voter contact strategies such as direct mail, TV (broadcast or cable depending on coverage area), phones and increasingly internet, which can be slighted or even starved to pay for elaborate sign campaigns.
Nor can a plethora of signs make up for defiencies in message or support. Indeed, in such cases large number of signs for one candidate may actually help turn out votes for the opposition and voters leaning that way, by scaring the bejesus out of them.
That’s essentially what happened in 1996, when the WA Republican nominee for governor was an righ-wing religious conservative, Ellen Craswell, while the Democratic opponent was moderate Democrat Gary Locke. As noted, the Craswell campaign made a huge sign effort; in contrast, Locke had lots of signs but nowhere the near Craswell’s numbers.
I remember hearing lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth over this in liberal pointy-head circles. And giving the soothing reply: acres don’t vote, people do. Which proved to be the case, Locke won easily, becoming the first Asian American governor outside of Hawaii, and the current US Secretary of Commerce.
Would be very interested to learn more about British experience.
Now David Kelly’s former Iraq aide joins call for inquiry into his ’suicide’
Ms Pederson has revealed that Dr Kelly was unable to use his right hand for tasks requiring strength because of a painful elbow injury.
She said he would have had to be a ‘contortionist’ to have killed himself in the way the Hutton inquiry claimed. She also disclosed that he suffered from a disorder that made it difficult for him to swallow pills.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1200566/Kelly-s-Iraq-aide-joins-inquiry.html
294. Reading between the lines it’s pretty clear the Lib Dems are very worried indeed about the Greens eating into their vote and pushing them into third or fourth.
Still looks like it could be a desperate three-way struggle for second place…fun for punters, but not for the parties struggling to avoid the drop….
Pretty pathetic of Sky to say a NOTW poll shows Labour about to get a kicking when (a) it doesn’t and (b) it’s a month old. Makes the BBC coverage of politics looks sophisticated.
241: SSI - looking over the overseas practices in the Constitutional Reform Committee, we’ve been advised that in New Zealand, not only do they have electronic voting but MPs can delegate their votes to whips, who thereby acquire bloc votes for the whole party. Can this possibly be true? The whips must think they’ve died and gone to Heaven.
294, 296 - thanks very much, NickS-NB. Obvious just how hard you’re working, good of you to come in wee hours and post front-line (if not body-line!) reportage.
How effective in your opinion is election signage as a means of persuading & turning out voters, and as a predictor of final results, in Norwich/Norfork in particular and UK in general?
297 - The David Kelly conspiracy thoery.
Do people really believe that stuff?
299, I hope you will be telling Sky News so they are talking on the right lines tomorrow morning.
I have emailed them myself
299 - Skys coverage of the “Flu Vaccine shocker” is a story to watch.
“So is he delay in the vaccine because of Government testing”
Err, yes.
301 - Well 25% of people in the UK think the moon landings were faked and 44% think the Apollo missions were a complete waste of money.
296: You’re right, SSI - signs alone don’t tell you much. I remember going to help in a South London election where the Greens were running Labour close. The middle-class part of the ward was absolutely awash with Green posters, while the working-class part was disturbingly barren of any psoters at all. But in the event we won easily - a local told me that middle-class Labour voters kept quiet to avoid irritating their friends, and the (predominantly ethnic West Indian) working-class vote in the ward didn’t bother with posters, they just voted.
But in Norwich North where three anti-Labour parties are competing for credibility, it’s likely to be much more important. There must be a fair number of floating voters who are genuinely unsure which party has the best chance, certainly between LibDems and Greens 9who do fish ion the same pool). We don’t know either, do we? So if one side wins the poster war it may help them significantly there.
298 - really? Of course you’re an expert on Lib Dem election strategy.
My reading of this is that the Lib Dems will easily beat the Greens and have Labour in their sights. In fact I was talking to someone senior in Campaigns who reckoned it was winnable but for the fact that the Craig Murray (will he/won’t he - and for who?) put the campaign on the back burner for a week or so. If the decision had been taken from day 1 to fight it seriously (which it wasn’t) then my source reckons the Lib Dems would be breathing down Tory necks - as it is the ‘lost week’ means the party is running very hard and making progress, but hasn’t got the time to make a serious challenge. But a punt on them coming second may be good value.
299, NPNP - wouldn’t surprise me a bit.
Under the NZ voting system, their are most definitely two classes of parliamentarian: MPs elected by constituency via first-past-the-post; and MPs elected via party list. The latter are highly suceptable to getting wacked by the party if they get out of line.
So has the CR Committee studied in detail the voting practices, etc of that bastion of democracy, the New York State Senate?
Actually, what you should do is have them fly you to Honolulu (or San Juan) next January to study legislative arraignments there. Here they are quite progressive!
304 - Oracle wrote. Well 25% of people in the UK think the moon landings were faked
Nonsense.
Re: signs, around here there are lots of people who dislike the things, though they are remarkably tolerant. Indeed, many in public right-of-ways are technically illegal. (Local laws banning them from all public property are almost certainly unconstitutioanal, though with current SCOTUS who knows?)
Indeed there is a high yardsign attrition rate, and campaigns engaged in serious sign campiagn or war must put considerable time & money into replacement.
Of course candidates and their campaigns habitually accuse their opponents of stealing or defacing signs, and sometimes this is actually true. But most of the “vandalism” is done by kids, or people who get fed up with particular signs. For example, whenever I can, I remove them - including ones for candidates & ballot measures I’m voting for - from Seattle Parks property, they reeeeeeeeally pisssss me off.
308 - Apollo 11 hoax: one in four people do not believe in moon landing
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/science/space/5851435/Apollo-11-hoax-one-in-four-people-do-not-believe-in-moon-landing.html
304, Oracle & 308, tim - saw US press report other day that cited recent polling, said that 6% of Americans disbelieved the Moon landings.
288 - “One step might be (re)admittance of Republic of Ireland into the Commonwealth. If South Africa could do it, why not Ireland?”
Because the people of the Republic of Ireland dont really want to rejoin?
310, Oracle - could that be 1/4 Telegraph readers?
313 - The survey was conducted for E&T magazine, published by the Institution of Engineering and Technology (1009 people polled). No more information provided.
314 (cont) What are you saying about Telegraph readers?
25& of respondents to a phone in poll by a magazine equates to ” 25% of the British People”
Next you’ll be telling me that the Government destroyed all single vaccines and that they watch petrol staions CCTV.
it spreads into the Kelly case almost without comment.
312, Neil - methinks that could depend on how and when you ask them. Certainly unanimity isn’t in the cards. Though the number in Republic who voted to repeal parts of Irish consitution proclaiming sovereignty over the North was pretty high.
Do think that key question could well be, what’s in it for us? Pretty natural question in politics!
One interesting factor could be the extent to which citizens of the Repubic are already enjoying very many of the rights and privleges of British subjects when they are in the UK. For example, full voting rights. Note that most Americans find this one in particular pretty amazing.
Deary me you don’t get a joke do you Smearbot! I had assumed your knowledge of newspaper stuff you would have seen this poll! and I was only joking about to your comment about people believing conspiracy theories.
318 (cont) WINNNNNNNDDDDDDD ITTTTTT UPPPPP AND WATCH THE SMEARBOT GO!!!!
Time for the Smearbot to clock off me thinks, when he doesn’t realise he has been stitched up like a kipper, ho ho ho.
I thought your BBC posts were the spoofs.
Apologies.
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2152/2233087919_7f25ae1389.jpg
MAJORITY MAJORITY MAJORITY
please remember PB rule #94 as per JohnLoony
Best yardsign story I’ve got, comes from a local legislative race in a very swing district (politically, not sexxxxually, though who really knows?)
The Republican nominee and incumbent was a very rightwing Christian conservative. She was a true wacko, though I can also personally attest she was a very nice lady; once at a recount (she lost) she gave me half a sandwich!.
Anyway, she was making a big yardsign effort. And was distrubed by the attrition rate of her signs. So one fine night her husband, an evagelical preacher, decided to stake out one of her more prominent (and vulnerable) sign locations. And confronted some guys who trifled with his wife’s (political) honor with a shotgun.
Which sadly for her proved NOT to be in her true best interest when the story hit the papers.
323 - Sea Shanty, is it just me or does MLS have a long way to go as a spectacle?
Whenever I watch it, it seems that there is a lack of quality and imagination in the final 1/3. There is a lot of pace and power, huff and puff, but players seem to lack that real quality and slick movement in and around the box.
321, ??? - “politically, not sexxxxually, though who really knows?”
SeanT, where are you when we need you?????
317 - I cant really imagine a way of asking the voters in the Republic to rejoin the Commenwealth that would get even a decent minority saying yes. Eamon De Valera’s grandson (Eamon O’Cuiv, a fairly anonymous cabinet minister) has raised it in the past as a step towards unification but it didnt find much support. And the voting rights of Irish citizens in the UK are reciprocated and underpin important parts of the Good Friday Agreement so I cant foresee change on that front in the near future.
Nich. Thanks for your comments.
I would consider myself a thinking Tory voter, if that is not an oxymoron. I am neither a party member nor an activist. I have no local connection with Norfolk or Norwich North.
My primary interest in the Norwich North by-election is in its potential impact on national politics. If the result increases the likelihood of Brown being replaced or if it leads to the GE being called earlier than 2010 then it is important. A secondary interest is in finding a value bet.
Politically, for the above reasons, I would like to see the Labour Party beaten into at least 4th place. As a punter I would like to this result to be rationally justifiable before placing my bet.
I can dispassionately predict a Con Gain (who can’t?!). I can also rationalise a catastrophic collapse in the Labour vote. Recent election results; current polls; by-election volatility; the reason for the by-election and its local impact; the national implications for Labour and Brown; and, the relative strengths of the candidates and their party machines all bode ill for Labour. However, for Labour to fail (4th or below) requires one or more other parties to succeed. Voters will switch from Labour to other parties in line with national polls but more than this is needed. Additional votes need to be ‘lent’ to a protest party. It is here that I see the Greens succeeding over the Lib Dems. The Greens are new(ish), locally active, unsullied by ‘expensesgate’ and are closer than any of the other parties to the ‘progressive’ politics of Dr Ian Gibson. They are the natural beneficiary of the lent Labour vote.
Because we are talking ‘tactical’, ‘lent’ and ‘protest’ votes, the tradtional campaign tactics of posters and leaflets are not (as) relevant to the target group. For all my rationalisation, this Labour vote may protest by staying at home. If this happens then I can see the Lib Dems coming second. My gut feeling however is that expensesgate has politicised the public rather than thrown it into apathy. My money will therefore go to the Greens.
325, unfortunately you are asking me about I subject where even I cannot pretend to be a fount o’ knowledge.
Am just too damn old to learn Hungarian (without a sleeping dictionary) or appreciate association football (without a retainer). It all looks like hampsters in a hat box to me.
Note that as a good liberal progressive and rootless cosmopolitan to boot I’ve tried to appreciate “the beautiful game” without success.
Further note that I’m a very poor sports fan. Tend to get interested when something above-average is happening, that even I can recognize as a Great Moment in Sport. Or some other factor; for example, last May loved watching broadcasts of Giro d’Italia, but mostly for the incredible tour of one of the most fascinating and scenic countries in the world.
So your view is WAY more relevant than my own. Reckon even tim will vote for that proposition!
324 SIS. I do hope in the circumstances it wasn’t half a tongue sandwich.
327, Psep. - could the former Ambassador be the wild card? Even if he’s as irritating as Norfolk Blogger and others suggest, might he be a natural parking lot for Labour voters who
a) wish to vote;
b) register a protest against their party and/or leader; and
c) don’t want to help any of the other parties?
271/275. And in 1998 Bill Clinton said: “why not have both?”
Andrew Rawnsley - Labour may never, ever win power on its own again
“The polls are bleak for Labour, but they do not tell us that there is a wave of national enthusiasm for their rivals. There is no evidence that Britain is yearning to be ruled by the Conservatives. In the last 20 published polls, the Tories have been at 40 points or above in just six. They have never climbed higher than 41 and have frequently drifted down towards the mid-thirties. This is not at all impressive against an old, tired and confused government led by a prime minister who is a woeful communicator and at a time when the jobless total is marching inexorably towards 3 million. The Conservatives really ought to be performing much better than this. Labour was routinely polling in the high forties and quite often above 50% when it was on its way back to power before 1997. It has been a regular refrain from David Cameron that he needs to “seal the deal” with the electorate. This he has still not done.”
Comparing polling pre 97 vs 2009?
Expenses?
Euro’s?
Be interested in Mike’s views on this.
Observer - MoD rejected three deals to buy Black Hawk helicopters
329, SOL - nothing so exotic (by US norms anyway) but that would have been appropriate!
Can remember for some reason we discussed Valley Forge. Her mental image was George Washington with bended knee on the snow with his ragged but inspired band of patriots, praying for divine guidance and protection. Which is indeed part of the picture.
My own counterpoint to her perception, was Baron “von” Steuben swearing a blue streak in katzenjammer English at the Gottverdammt Amerikanishe Schiesskopfen! (NPNP please edit) to their boundless amusement and edification. Plus Steuben’s reported preference for handsome young jaegers as opposed to say Betsy Ross or Molly Pitcher.
But I forebare to speak. Not only did I NOT want to offend in any way a kind soul who’d just given me a free lunch, she was losing and kicking a lady when she’s down is too crass even for a hack like me.
Most important thing, however: in a recount or similar ALWAYS be on your best behavior. Best be building up your brownie points with the powers that be AND the opposition, because you might just be needing them.
Christina, are you goin to the great Hoosier state & Louisville anytime soon? Thought you said you were this year sometime.
BTW, re Marcia earlier on pronunciation of “Juan de Fuca” standard at least US side is something like:
Strait of Wanda Fyuka
328 SIS.
Craig Murray is an odd candidate with a colourful past. As our man in Uzbekistan he became involved with an Uzbek belly-dancer in a local night club and a scandal involving the improper issue of visas to such corporate assistants. This led to him leaving his wife and two children and marrying the Uzbek girl. All this must of course have been torture to him and to the Foreign Office. Having knocked around Eastern Europe for some 20 years, I understand both the temptations and the risks. If he had not been Her Majesty’s representative in Uzbekistan I may also have been sympathetic.
All the above has undermined his advocacy of an ethical foreign policy and his campaign against the endorsement of torture by the UK and US governments. It is difficult for a politician to take strong ethical stands on public issues when one’s private life is not above reproach.
This is his achilles heel. Nonetheless he is certainly an energetic and stubborn campaigner, even if he remains somewhat of a loose cannon.
I can’t see him as a credible candidate though he will appeal to a hard core of conspiracy theorists.
332. “They have never climbed higher than 41″
They are at 42 with YouGov tonight!
334 SIS.
I am not an expert on American revolutionary history, but it occurs to me that what Baron von Steuben was to George Washington’s 18th Century army, Lord Mandelson may be to the 21st Century Labour Party. They share various characteristics, not least of which is a common goal of marshalling their forces through a winter of discontent and preparing them for ultimate victory.
336, SOL - but my point is, could he prove to be a convenient port o’ call - seedy & seen better days but available - for Labourites who don’t want to vote Labour, don’t want to stay home, and don’t want to help Tories, Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP or BNP?
Of course there’s always Hope of the OFRMLP. Whom I believe is now the longest serving party leader (like Screaming Lord Sutch before him) in the United Kingdom.
And they deny SLS and Mr. Hope (and lets not forget Cat Mandu) their rightful peerages, and hand them out like box tops to the likes of Archer, Black & Mandy?
SSI. My apologies. For SIS read SSI!
338 - SOL - hey, that’s pretty good.
Am sure the phrase “these are times that try men’s souls” has occured to the PM also “sunshine soldiers and summer patriots.” Surely PM’s read Tom Paine in his mispent youth!
However, don’t think Labour Party rank-and-file has ever found Lord Mandelson as amusing as Continental Army privates found General Steuben.
340, LOS - where’s moderation when we need it most?
Re: Uzbekistan, check out if you haven’t already “Easern Approches” by Fitzroy Maclean. He spent some quality time in Bokara, his published account is classic. And could be that the unpublished journals document first-hand the charms of the fragrent roses made legend by Omar Kaiyam?
339 SSI.
Craig Murray has been quoted by some bookmakers at keener prices than the Green and Lib Dem candidates. This may be the usual caution shown to dark horses. My guess is that he will pick up a few hundred votes and lead the independents. Although the Greens have been around for some time and have good representation at local council level (and nationally as MEPs), they have no Westminster MPs. This means that for most people they are not seen as an ‘establishment’ party. They are a safer port for protest votes than any independent. If the protest were against a centre-right favourite (or incumbent) then Murray may be more attractive.
343 SSI.
I haven’t read “Eastern Approaches” but will look out for it. I was however lucky enough to share a quick drink with Sir Fitzroy in the bar of Savoy Hotel in Moscow whilst he was waiting for a British Embassy official to collect him. He was near the end of his life but still wholly compos mentis. I have always admired his joke about the Turkish diplomat, Mustapha Fuk when serving during the war in Stalinist Moscow. “Every diplomat in Moscow has felt this urge but it takes a Turk to put it on his business card”.
Seattle’s new Sound Transit Light Rail Line from downtown Seattle through the Rainier Valley to the near southern suburb of Tukwila opened today.
Check out this story from Seattle Times website:
Young Chelsea fan takes heat on train
Ben Carlin may only be 13, but Seattleites on the light-rail train this morning shot him dirty looks and called him a betrayer. He didn’t seem to mind. After all, he was wearing a Chelsea FC jersey.
“I’ve always been a Chelsea fan,” he said, with a broad smile.
Carlin said he was supporting Seattle by taking the new train from Beacon Hill to Stadium Station. “Even though it’s (Stadium Station) not indoors with fancy lighting (like Beacon Hill), it still looks great.”
SSI. It’s getting well past my bedtime. Mustapha must retire. Have enjoyed your company.
345, SOL - what a great story, he’s always been a favorite of mine since I read EA.
He wrote another book that’s less famous but excellent, about a remarkable fellow, born a humble Jewish lad in Germany, who converted to Christianity, immigrated to England, entered the ministry, became a Church of England vicar and married into the peerage. On top of that he was an incredibly gifted linguist who specialized in Persian, Sanskrit and other eastern languages, which he perfected via ardious travels.
In the mid 1800s he heard about the plight of two British officers who had traveled to Bokara on HM business but never came back. He volunteered to go after them, and raised the financiing to do it.
His approach to the independent and fanatical oasis emirate in the heart of Central Asia was eccentric but effective. The inhanbitants were highly amazed one day to see him approaching the city with a small retinue, dressed in full CofE cannoicals. Among his few possessions were copies of a biography of Muhammed - carefully written from a perspective both Christian and respectful of Islamic sensibilities - by his own hand, writen in Persian. Which quickly became a must read for every serious mullah and literati in the place.
Having made a favorable first impression, he then proceeded to petition to see the two British officers. After weeks of inquiry, hospitality, threats and other diversions, the powers that be finally worked up the fortitude to inform their vistor that the two previous Brits had been mistrusted, fallen into disfavor, hurled into the Emir’s vermin pit (sheep ticks our specialty) and eventually executed.
The vicar took the news like a gentleman and a Christian. And he was after a suitable interval allowed to leave Bokara and return to England. No doubt because he not only impressed the locals, but also convinced them he was harmless as well as entertaining and informative. Plus there is a natural, international reluctance to interfer with a jolly friar (or flying nun) whatever his creed as long as they don’t scare the horses (or camels or yaks or llamas).
Interesting finding in the Independent:
“The latest survey shows voters increasingly “do not really know what David Cameron stands for”: 53 per cent agreed with this statement, an increase from 49 per cent a year ago, while 42 per cent disagreed.”
He’s all hot air.
Are the 25% who believe that the moon landings were faked, the same 25% who would still vote Labour? It seems to fit, somehow.
I’m always somewhat distrustful of YouGov statistics. AFAIK they don’t work on a statistically sound sample, but only on those who subscribe.
Are there any figures on the demographics of YouGov subscribers? I’m one and I’m a “later middle-aged” (ie over 70) white male, formerly working in a health profession.