Tories open up 18 point gap with ComRes
July 28th, 2009
CON 42 (+4) LAB 24 (+1) LD 18 (-4)
But was it more than just the “Norwich Effect”?
This clearly is a very good poll for the Tories who are back in the 40s after five consecutive surveys from the pollster that had them below the magical 40 number including one where they had slumped to just 30%.
The field-work started on Friday and went through to Sunday when the party, and particularly Cameron, was getting a lot of favourable coverage in the media following the capture of Norwich North.
The evidence from past by elections is that polls taken in the immediate aftermath tend to give a boost to the party’s that’s done best.
Whatever - the opening of the gap to 18 points with Labour still in the low 20s - will add further to the gloom at Brown Central which had pinned its hopes on a strong Tory cuts message.
Andrew Hawkins, CEO of ComRes, believes that the Tory strategy of stressing the need for spending cuts in the face of the economic crisis is what is chiming with the public.
The party that will be most disappointed are the Lib Dems who see a sharp reverse on the numbers in the last ComRes poll just ten days ago. So we are getting a mixed picture with Clegg’s party at the moment. The latest YouGov survey had them their highest level for nearly a year.
As regulars will know I have written on a number of occasions about the ComRes weighting system. There have been changes in the past month and these have answered my concerns.
The next poll should be YouGov for the Telegraph at the weekend.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Hmmm… need an ICM to confirm this one.
Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’ve decided Comres are OK now they have sorted their weighting… oh and the Conservatives are back above 40 with them
GOd I was close I said 42/24/19
4. So nearly a Tricast!
Someone needs to check their server clock. You published at 9.59 your time, but its about three minutes until 10.00…
Quite a jump for the Tories, there goes another nokia.
5 Close but no cigar, thats the second time I have predicted and been 2/3 always LD’s let me down…..
Other predictions I have made.. lets just not talk about them…..
Electoal calculus makes that a 152 majority…
Tories = Lab + Libdem vote
Nice!
Others down to 16%.
Good poll! Needless to say electoral calculus looks abysmal or Labour.
Con 401
Lab 178
Lib 41
Con Majority 152
I’m tired on general election polls. Can’t we just have a general election?
2.Yes!!!! from me too.
I think the Forces Compensation case may well damage Labour this week.
Was it just Norwich though - have been surprised by overheard comments “well that view won’t raise our council tax”, “that patio is going to cost them” and similar which show the story about home improvements, low crime etc increasing your tax have been picked up quite widely. Odd things can move sentiment.
The Lib Dems have got involved in no real debate over the past couple of weeks so it’s worrying times for Clegg et al.
Baxter with all usual caveats;
CON 401
LAB 178
LD 41
Maj 152
With leads like this Cameron doesn’t have to worry about underperformance in Scotland or LD incumbency which could take anything up to 20 seats off the Tories. Labour will take some heart that they are picking up support probably from the Greens and other smaller parties, but the Tories are clearly making all the running and Labour is fast running out of time and options.
re 13. OK Josh - I’ll try to fix it.
9 - and the Robert Smithson Predictor of Doom says….??
Baxter gives maj of 152. Interesting we’re back at Con share equalling combined Lab + Lib Dem
but has Cameron sealed the deal yet? Until the Tories get over 80% we are still no doubt in hung parliament territory
At last a poll outside the MOE to add to the excitement.
So it’s a yippee for the Tories and a wooden spoon for Clegg.
This poll on the predictors would produce:
Anthony Wells: Con 395, Lab 189, LD 37
Baxter: Con 401, Lab 178, LD 41
13. Not until you are 9 or so months older;).
LDs heading down… Yet we should be seeing the “Others” vote reduce.
Oh dear,what do I see in this poll,the lib dems collapsing,down 4%,questions must be asked about calamity’s leadership.
Only 1.3% swingback to a hung Parliament…
Someone had to say it
What kind of result would these data produce, if you ran them through the Smithsometer? i.e. the new Robert Smithson Electoral Predictor?
Tory majority 200+??
I am still mighty sceptical of Comres.
Did they ever clear up why their weightings jumped around like grasshoppers?
What is the new weighting mechanism? How long has it been in place?
To mark this occasion I have composed a haiku:
Eighteen points, eighteen!
Labour, bend over and kiss your
ID cards goodbye.
What’s noteworthy is how much of the Labour support has gone missing in recent months. As recently as 19 March, YouGov reported Con 41, Lab 30, Lib Dems 17. The Tories and the Lib Dems are both a point higher in this poll, but Labour are 6 points lower.
25 - The others vote has no reason to ‘reduce’, look at Norwich North to see that it is also impervious to campaigning.
The problem that major parties have now is that, the more they campaign, the more people are reminded of why they dislike them so much.
31 erratum - For “YouGov”, read “ComRes”.
so the tories on 42% with comres,that means the tories in real terms must be on 50% plus.
18% lead with ComRes?
Whale Oil Beef Hooked
Labour are doomed - DOOMED TO DEFEAT AT THE NEXT ELECTION!:smile:
An 18 point lead for the Conservatives!
What baffles me is Labour going up 1 point!
Not surprised by the LD failure though. They must be really worried as the momentum as it looks like Yellow Taxi Time could be coming soon! Indeed with Nick Clegg help it will be Del Boys Relient Robin!
“Andrew Hawkins, CEO of ComRes, believes that the Tory strategy of stressing the need for spending cuts in the face of the economic crisis is what is chiming with the public.”
It would explain why we are getting reports that the Tories are going into more detail on this - if the Conservatives have formed the same view, they’re going to stress a vote-winning platform.
Ave it
Ave it
Ave it
28. If I’ve set it up right(!) it gives this;
CON 429
LAB 156
LD 34
SNP 8
PC 2
OTH 3
I think the SNP will win a lot more seats than that though!!
Obviously
So am I to understand that:
a) ComRes poll that is bad news for the Tories proves that ComRes are “a joke” and other such scathing comments, and
b) ComRes poll thats good news for the Tories is a good poll
You’d think - if Tories were so confident that Labour are guaranteed finished and the Tories are guaranteed a big win - that Tory commentators wouldn’t be so skittish about the opinion polls.
37 and conversely it means people dont believe the Labour 0% increase bull either.
36 LDs theme tune for GE2010!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzhwx8aOO0A
39. They will snaffle quite a few LD Scottish seats! Probably only CK left as Ming has expenses a QT audience found objectionable.
Imagine 5 million taxpaying demonstrators edging along Park Lane chanting “What do we want? Tory cuts! When do we want them? Now!” and the Labour ’strategy’ unravels before your eyes.
42. Ave it 09 July 28th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
39 shouldnt that be LDs 5?!
36,the way things are going for the illiberals,it won’t be a relient robin they need,it will be a peddle bike.
40. Yawwwwwn. Blair and friends were equally skittish about polls in 1996, despite huge and regular polling leads - see the Campbell Diaries. Their neuroticism was the product of repeated electoral defeats.
They went on to a landslide, of course.
42 Or maybe this - Kennedy can whistle it to himself as he wanders the halls of Parliament:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duXohSAjP2w
39
Scotland is a big problem in Smithson Jnr’s model. Also, those deserting Labour in their heartlands (outside scotland) are unlikely to go tory in large numbers. In places like Peckham, Bootle and Rhonnda, they will abstain or vote BNP/Green/ED/UKIP.
Con gain
Con gain
Con gain
Yet Sporting Index is down 2 seats Tory (355-360), down 1 seat Lib Dem (51-54) and up 3 Seats Labour (204-209). Seems like a good moment to bet - unfortunately SPIN currently need a £1000 deposit for me to bet £10.
Any explanation of why Cons are losing seats on SPIN?
“No more boom and bust”
Based on this poll result, the big question is could Ester Rantzen now beat the LibDems into fourth place at Luton South?
51. Another point or two higher and it will be “Con gain everything this side of Neptune!”
40 Comres produced a poll with Conservatives at 30% and as Mike pointed out their weightings were yo-yoing about. Take a while to regain coinfidence.
On your other point, of course we Tories are skittish, after more than a decade stuck in the 30-33% box in polls (and results) before Cameron we are not arrogant enough to expect victory on a plate, its a recession and the public are likely to be more volatile.
Good poll, fairly in line with most of the others which is a novelty for ComRes. Still sceptical though. Unless Labour can find a means of nudging up towards 30 they are well and truly done for.
40. OGH says that the weighting methodology is now as good as the other polling companies. People have been sceptical of ComRes and rightly so as their polls were all over the place, if they’ve fixed those problems then this result is more trustworthy than previous results. If would be interesting to if the new methodology was applied to previous results and to see if those adjusted results were more in line with contemporary polls from other companies.
re 48. Labour in 1997 also had the experience of the massive over-statement of the polls in 1992. That was haunting them right to the end.
The Tory experience has been one of understatement and traditional UNS seat calculators that seem to set the bar so high.
That was until my son Robert applied himself. He’s totally confident about his model - but does even Cameron want a 200 seat majority.
“does even Cameron want a 200 seat majority.
by Mike Smithson July 28th, 2009 at 10:26 pm”
Is that a serious question?! You can’t be too rich or too thin.
50.You don’t get more Labour heartland than Glasgow East in Scotland.
And don’t expect a huge turnout in those area’s in a GE either. Just check out the turnout in some seats at the Holyrood elections in 2007. But those seats will still stay Labour, as will the similar ones in England and Wales.
58
A very good point, I would say Cameron will take whatever the electorate give him. If its 200 so be it.
58 - Well it would guarantee him a place in the history books!!
62 - though he’d have to share the credit with Brown
A 200-seat Tory majority would give Cameron the authority to do what is required ot rectify our national finances.
It would also give a judgment for history on 12 years of New Labour.
58 - A 200seat majority wont happen, haven’t you heard about swing back?
Hang on a second, PBers. We know that, as Mike says, ComRes have recently changed their weightings. Did the previous poll, which had the Conservatives 4 points down and the LibDems 4 points up compared with this latest poll, use the same weightings and methodology?
64 - Indeed going down to the worst defeat since the Great depression does seem somewhat appropriate!!
At the risk of being abused as a Lib Dem ramper.
Not much coverage of the Lib Dems in the past two weeks. Maybe that and Norwich explains it all.
65 And after next May, you won’t hear about swing back again…
Insead of looking at what Camerons majority may or may not be we should look at whether it is suffient punishment to Labour for what they have done to the country! Lets Remember Blair got a 179 Majority despite the Tories getting the economy back into shape by 1997 and doing the right thing in terms of fiscal policy.
Labour have not only made worse political mistakes and become self-serving but they have screwed the economy, fiscal policy and made look a shadow of are selves on the international stage. So is a 200 seat majority succicient punishment - I dont think so!
69 - Amen to that!
One would further think these numbers likely understate support for the Tories, since the poll was conducted over a fine summer weekend when most Tory toffs were likely having tea with the Queen at Balmoral.
If someone had given Gordon a crystal ball showing this poll in Oct 2007 would he still have bottled the election? (on consideration he probably would have gone into a rage and smashed the ball …)
68 - “Not much coverage of the Lib Dems in the past two weeks”
But is that likely to change? Clegg appears to be IDS and Major rolled into one….Grey and silent.
Oh joy - Mandy and Toenails on Newsnight.
I think I might go to the vomitorium instead….
re 66. Richard - Off the top of my head I think that the last three ComRes polls have operated with the revised methodology.
73 - But Gordon wasn’t planning to hold an election in Oct 2007. It must be true, because he told Andrew Marr that
Crikey ToeNails again on Newsnight!
No doubt another PPB for Labour.
The Crap Mandy comes out with reguard to Labour being underdogs
The system is skewed in Labours favour, they are in power and they have the power of patronege.
66. I may be misremembering but I think there was a change, whether it is exactly the same as this poll I do not know. Perhaps Mike will explain further.
74 - Don’t forget to add in Neil Kinnock into the mix
80 - Don’t start that off!
67 - And yet Brwon leaving Downing Street will lift my great depression.
Cameron sadly has an Obama moment to come. I said the day he was elected the only way for him was down. And already it is coming to pass.
Cameron will have the same to deal with, the problems are too great. Thatcher would have struggled to win in ‘83 without the Falklands even against Foot.
60
Agree. I’ve said before that the nightmare scenario for Labour is:
1) labour core vot abstains
2) turnout overall is up
Then the fanciful talk of 3 figure majorities suddenly look possible.
Probably been done to death on here earlier but surely there is no hope for Lembit…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8172965.stm
Is it just me or does Nick Robinson look like a perpetually startled d*ldo?
82 - We shall see.
75 - Why would you want to stand in the exit of a stadium?
85 - The pedant in me wants to know how you startle an inanimate object.
85 - You must use some pretty odd d1dlos
84 “Lembit said she was a “lovely girl” but they had been working together on a campaign against eating disorders.
…
“I have always liked an older man and it’s refreshing that he sees me as intelligent,” Ms Green told Closer.”
A “Closer” shave would have been her working on this project with John Prescott!
84 - when I worked in Parliament for a while, someone told me that people who had been to the gym with Lembit nicknamed him ‘Tripod’. Maybe that explains the rather fetching women he seems to attract like bees to honey…
90 - Well it’s enough to make me sick
88 It’s only “an inanimate object” when switched off….!
76 Mike
In that case, I think we Conservatives may permit ourselves to be mildly pleased, without of course becoming complacent.
82. Cityunslicker July 28th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
I disagree with that. The reason being for a true comparison this would be 1981 or 1982 by the time of the election. 1983-1987 saw continued restaint in public spending yet it did not cause the Thatcher government a problem.
The problem is much more serious and the path back to growth more difficult but if Cameron draws on people who will help implement the right vision and goal. I dont think this potential next Tory Government will follow the same path is early 1980s. I think you might find it is more like the 1950s!
93 -
Surprisingly poor performance from Mandelfoy. So far.
88, 89 — I think it’s that egg-head look of his. I shudder to think what Dr Freud would make of this interpretation though…
82. Anything can happen - and I think DCs stature and popularity are going to grow in office. 10 more months of this lot is going to be unbearable however.
91 – It must be reassuring to know that Lembit has an endowment policy to fall back on after the next GE.
98 - Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar?
Toenails interviewing Mandy surprisingly robust!
The trouble with the Lib Dems is that they are so wet. Did anyone notice that their Norwich candidate April Pond had frog-like eyes; was that a mote in her eye ?
Mandelson says he and labour are coming from behind….
hmmm
at least they are acknowledging the polls….
£1bn scheme to create ’soft jobs’
A billion pounds is to be spent on creating tens of thousands of “soft” public sector jobs for unemployed people including dance assistants, tourism ambassadors and solar panel engineers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/5927518/1bn-scheme-to-create-soft-jobs.html
82. No. Cameron has nothing like the goodwill and expectations that Obama had hanging around his shoulders.
As Labourites never cease to tell us, no one loves the Tories, they just hate Labour.
This will act in Cameron’s favour in 2010. The voters have no romance with Cameron that can turn to dust with the reality of marriage. The voters expect the Tories to be cold and ruthless, they also accept this ruthlessness is probably necessary.
104 - Not the first time Lord Mandelson has come from behind.
Sorry I’ll get my coat.
104 - What a lovely image.
100. He may find a career on the small screen!
John Holmes Vs. Lembit Opik!
100.Sounds like he has been falling back on it for years, and with great success. C’mon boys, admit it, it must be galling to see this Libdem having so much fun.
109 - Hmmm, I wonder if Lembit will go the same way John Holmes did?
105 - That picture of Yvette makes her look 10 years older than she in fact is.
“Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar?”
Tell that to Monica Lewinsky.
Comres may be using consistent past vote weightings but there are still some strange things going on in their data tables . The previous poll had 240 Conservative voters rounded down to 227 after weighting , this poll had 271 Conservatives rounded up to 286 , both polls found almost the same number of LibDems 122 and 121 respectively . More puzzling is that the number of DKs/refused has gone down by a large margin from 220 to 155 , really need to compare these 2 figures with previous polls .
107. Put your coat on my peg, I love a good Mandelson story.
113 - That was a waste of a mighty fine cigar
A big decline in Labours’ support is the continual stream of hearses through Wooton Bassett. Jimmy Brown’s appointment of Ainsworth as Defence Secretary was not well received either.
111. Habib Butt July 28th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
No doubt his political career will be snuffed out early as he is stubbed out!
106.”82. No. Cameron has nothing like the goodwill and expectations that Obama had hanging around his shoulders.”
Seant, good point. And one worth highlighting to those that expect him and the Conservatives to crash to great unpopularity quite quickly. They will be voted in to do the job of sorting out the debt and making the cuts. No one is going to cheer them on for doing it, but they might end up being respected for taking those tough decisions. And its going to be a while before anyone forgets the mess left behind by this government.
*cough*
I once shared a girlfriend with Lembit Opik. I heard no mention of this untossed Lib Dem caber from our mutual squeeze.
Perhaps she was just protecting my feelings.
Mandy not categorically ruling out leading Labour as PM at the next GE!
120.Seant, she probable was. Women tell their girlfriends these things, not another boyfriend who might end up feeling pressured as it were.
120. I think the last thing a man wants to hear from his girlfriend, is how is winky is not as big as her last boyfriend. Bit of a relationship killer.
121. stjohn July 28th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
Well if that is the case Mandelson should get rid of Brown now, become PM and go to the palace for an election. I am sick to death of Labour messing this countries future up to save themseleves.
Labour = Condemned to the dustbin of history.
LD = LOL
Tories = Will screw things up from 2010 onwards
2015 = SNP GAIN HALTEMPRICE AND HOWDEN!!!
Can we stop talking about the size of Lembit’s todger?
It’s making me feel all self conscious, cos mine’s only an inch, an inch of the floor.
105 you forgot to mention the “loft laggers” - Gordon’s fall back since his first budget which has never happened and yet again we are promised that an army of loft laggers will be created! …. joined this time by sports coaches, classroom assistants, forestry workers and carers
110. ChristinaD. He’s only having 10% of the fun of his leader thus far…
106. Melanie lays it on a bit thick, but Obama, the once and future Messiah, is beginning to show his true colour. (Oh a pun!)
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/5225221/the-mask-slips.thtml
104. If Mandelson is coming from behind then Labour are well and truly ******.
122 – Women can be so caring when they try, as it’s a bit of a bummer to be told you were the warm up act for something so large it had a knee joint in the middle,
122, 123. Seeing as we’re way past the lagershed:
A friend of mine once had a girlfriend who reassured him sexually - that she liked his smaller endowment, cause her last boyfriend was “so big he hurt”.
Needless to say my pal wasn’t that reassured.
125. When you’re lieing down I assume ;p
I seem to have started rather an odd tangent to this thread. Apologies.
128 - Melanie needs to lighten up.
132 - Only one way to find out
Unexpectedly, Nick Robinson is quite good at presenting Newsnight.
He’s serious yet lively, and not as egocentric and mannered as Paxman and Co. He also gave Mandelson a subtly challenging examination.
Curious.
Did Melanie ever find those buried bunkers full of Iraqi WMDs?
133 - Don’t apologise James.
131 - Without getting too anatomical, she might well have been telling the truth rather than being reassuring. There is such a thing as too big.
125. HB
“It’s making me feel all self conscious, cos mine’s only an inch, an inch of the floor.”
You’re meant to measure when you’re standing up not when you’re lying down
137 - Melanie actually found out that they Iraqi Chemical weapons were what they were actually putting in the MMR vaccines?
130.Simon, take it as a compliment if you are mentioned in dispatches amongst the girlfriends. If not, just hope that they are really boring and don’t talk about these things.
131.Seant, I hoped he didn’t hang around after that. She doesn’t sound like the type that would hold back on the criticism once they were married.
OT, Betfair have a “will Schumacher drive for Ferrari” market up. Not very liquid at the moment.
Melanie *could* tell us what she discovered — but then she’d have to kill us!
136. That’s what is annoying of the BBC and their chief hacks, Nick Robinson and Andy Marr can give really good interviews, they can when they want to, be deeply probing. Which is why it is so frustrating when they give soft focus easy rides to people who should be able to take the tough questions.
In a fair and decent world Andy Marr would have been sacked, thrown out of the NUJ and shunned by everyone in the media for his truly and utterly shocking interview of the PM when, Brown bottled the election.
The cartoon on guidos summed up the situation.
136. Sean T. I agree re Nick Robinson. A refreshing change from Paxo’s world weary tetchiness.
Mandelson just seen on Newsnight getting away with being his usual unctuous best by Robinson.
In fact though Robinson failed to press the point - Mandelson showed himself up to be a lying dissembling tit.
I think a key point is going to be whether cuts are perceived as reasonably fair. That may be difficult to achieve without stifling entrepreneurial regeneration. But it won’t be perceived as fair if the only people to feel the pinch are (say) pensioners, whilst (say) the bankers go on getting big bonuses.
More than 100 jobs at the British Council are to be outsourced to India as part of a massive cost-cutting drive to save the taxpayer money, The Times has learnt.
The decision to recruit local Indian workers to fill finance and IT posts has infuriated unions, who fear that this could be the blueprint for Whitehall.
It is believed to be the first time that the Civil Service or a quango has directly exported jobs to save costs. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office, which funds the British Council, is exploring similar options.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6731114.ece
I can hear the call now, BJ4BW’s!
120 SeanT
I hope you questioned your mutual squeeze’s weighting methodology.
146.The annoying thing is, Paxman can do a good probing interview when he sets his mind to it. Just doesn’t seem to be inclined to do so with our current crop of politicians of all persuasions. Frustrating when Newsnight can provide the perfect format for such interviews.
I like Andrew Neil on Straight Talk.
Derek Draper spotted out in public
Remind us Derek, who’s the one having the baby?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1202812/Remind-Derek-whos-having-baby.html
Have you noticed that Toenails is looking and sounding increasingly like Alan Whicker?
149. Oracle July 28th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
Not just that but why do we let skilled Immigrants from the country we are outsourcing in then! Barmy! They would be better off getting a proper rationalisation process in where they decide the true level of staffing required to complete the function using an auditor. Then chopping staff numbers but keeping the jobs here. If they need to shift the jobs to a cheaper place i can think of many places in the UK outside of London that would be glad of the jobs!
“In fact though Robinson failed to press the point - Mandelson showed himself up to be a lying dissembling tit.
by trevorsden July 28th, 2009 at 11:16 pm”
That’s why I say Robinson’s interview was subtle. He allowed a grandmaster like Mandelson to slowly swaddle himself in vagueness and dissimulation - until he looked like he was overtly lying.
Polls, polls, polls…
New Jersey Gov. Corzine is crashing and burning in his re-election bid, trailing Chris Christie by 50% to 36% in a Democratic poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_728.pdf
Included in the horrific numbers for Corzine: his approval rating currently stands at 33% and he’s losing the Hispanic population, 50% to 33%. He insists he has no intention of quitting the race, although there has been plenty of speculation that he might in the aftermath of the huge corruption bust last week.
Also, Gallup has Obama at 54% approval today, his worst yet:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
RE: Newsnight.
That bloke from the Met office should be the next LD leader - He said wimbledon was almost uninterupted!
Could it also have been due to the sliding roof on the main court that made it look like that!
156 - I’m not sure it will have come across to an impartial viewer as it did to you guys.
152 - Ah that explains the absence of tim on the board
155. SeanT July 28th, 2009 at 11:21 pm
I stopped listening about of 1/10th the way into the video!
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Wednesday-July-29-2009/Media-Gallery/200907415348395?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15348395_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Wednesday_July_29%2C_2009
The House Dems have given up on trying to obtain a healthcare reform vote before the August recess:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0709/Memo_No_health_vote_before_recess.html
The House now joins the Senate in failing to meet Obama’s original deadline for a vote.
152. Ugh how revolting…looks like a pair of slobs from Magaluf.
On thread - cheering poll. 1931-style result looking increasingly possible.
To OGH’s query - of course Cameron wants the biggest possible majority. He’s going to need it.
It’s astonishing, apart from the credible Romney the GOP appear to be hellbent on picking a niche candidate.
The idea of going into opposition is that you figure out what went wrong, not multiply it, it’s a sure way to lose an election without your opponents having to worry too much (Foot, Hague etc.)
“2012 President: Republican Primary
Romney 22%
Huckabee 21%
Palin 17%
Giuliani 13%
Gingrich 9%
Jindal 3%
Jeb Bush 1%
Pawlenty 1%”
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_2012_primary_fox_72122.php
The Indy Front page asking for Tory. Basically HINTING (nudge so hard break your ribs) Tories are only getting a £500k donation from an accountancy firm, as they want in on £4bn of government contracts.
Correction
The Indy Front page asking for Tory.
->
The Indy Front page asking for trouble.
165/166 - Crapita anyone?
Interesting piece from Craig Murray about experience of debt collection via a bailiff,
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2009/07/a_19th_century.html
165. Mind you if the big accountancy and services companies have switched allegiance then Labour must be stuffed.
165 / 166 - come on, you really think corporate donations to political parties are completely and utterly unconnected to hopes for future business?!
167 - Don’t you normally have to wait for a) the Tories to win the GE and then b) to start handing out government contracts like sweeties to this particular company before being able to make such a Crapita-esque “allegation” (have put in quotation marks as the Indy headline is carefully worded for obvious reasons).
170 - Oh I totally agree. I was just trying to work out if they ever did a front page analysis of Capita.
168. The last comment is interesting -
‘Bailiffs can now (eg) break and enter to recover Civil Debt. The matter is not confined to recovery of penalties imposed by Magistrates.’
Is this correct?
169. Of course they are unconnected.
165/166 - The paper reviewer on sky news has pointed out the following
1) The donations of 500k, isn’t cash donations, but benefits in kind, such as staff and reports
2) The firms have similar arrangements with all the major parties.
Do we know if EDS or individuals at top level of EDS in the UK have ever donated to Labour Party? They seem to have got an awful lot of government IT contracts, even after repeated balls up over the past 10 years.
174 - So they’re hedging their bets!
Justice for Wounded: British soldier at centre of compensation battle back on front line
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/5926870/Justice-for-Wounded-British-soldier-at-centre-of-compensation-battle-back-on-front-line.html
Specifics of what the two guys got a pay for in the article. Until now, I haven’t been aware of what exact injuries they suffered, why they got more compensation, and what state they were now in.
Alistair Darling’s cat has died in exile.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5927190/Downing-Street-cat-Sybil-dies.html
Another big blow for Gordo,
John Kingman to step down as UKFI chief executive
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6730212.ece
177.From the Telegraph article you linked to Oracle.
“The news that Cpl Duncan has been serving back on the front line was disclosed in open court yesterday by lawyers acting for Mr Ainsworth as they sought to overturn awards to him and another current serviceman, Matthew McWilliams - a Royal Marine who was broke his leg in a training exercise.”
I just couldn’t believe that, words fail me, they really do.
180 - I think you missed the another important bit (which I probably should have posted),
Cpl Duncan was originally awarded a lump-sum of £9,250 after being shot through the leg with a high velocity bullet in As-Samawah in southern Iraq in 2005, fracturing his thigh and leaving an open wound.
His payout was increased to £46,000 by a Pensions Appeal Tribunal after it was told of complications following extensive surgery which exacerbated the overall effect of his injuries.
Cpl Duncan, who underwent 11 separate operations on his leg and extensive rehabilitation
181.Oracle, but why did the MOD disclose his current whereabouts in open court?
FPT When I mentioned to a colleague that E Rantzen was standing for Parliament, her reponse was ‘well that sums up life doesn’t it? You hope for Joanna Lumley and you get Esther Rantzen’
I see another one of the government great schemes doesn’t look like it is going to come to much.
The system about getting graduates an internship, well the site goes live in the next few days (surely it should have been set up before people left uni) and there will be only 2000 short term internships for those 300,000+ graduates that have just left uni.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8173464.stm
Nurseries have been told to remove teddy bears and other soft toys from the children in their care to help to contain the spread of swine flu.
Government guidelines also require that nurseries and schools stop children sharing crayons and colouring pencils during the pandemic, and suspend morning assemblies.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/Swine_flu/article6730978.ece
183. “You hope for Joanna Lumley and you get Esther Rantzen”
Lol. Cracking.
Teddy bears can give you swine flu?
Well, these ones are so sickeningly sweet they can probably give you diabetes!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/11158835@N04/3755067414/
See? Everyone’s in a diabetic coma now.
i think joanna lumley could stand anywhere as an independent and the incumbent would either not turn up or end up voting for her as well.
she may not know kircaldy, but kirkcaldy knows her and she could do us all a favour by saying she will stand against cyclops if he does not call an election soon.
I’m sorry but the lead needs to be 1,800% before we can consider moving out of hung parliament territory….:-)
Whilst a good poll for the Tories, I would like to see ComRes being a little more stable for a while to be seen as more reliable. That is not to say that there cannot be sudden movements, the problem is ComRes have been all over the place for a little while and need a period of stability or having their changes shadowed by the other pollsters, to be a more reliable indicator. Needles to say the PLP must either be trapped like rabbits in the headlights, extraordinarily hopeful or just acting like lemmings.
British Council jobs outsourced to India:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6731114.ece
Martin Day: You might have to move to India if you ever want to be employed again. You said you like curry, right?
NPR/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll shows Obama at 53% approval:
http://www.npr.org/assets/news/2009/07/28/pollreport.pdf
Also, Republicans ahead of Dems in generic congressional ballot, 43% to 42%.
Scores of Scotland Yard officers are in open revolt after being banned from wearing Union Flag badges in support of British troops.
Met chiefs have decreed that the tiny emblems – which cost £1 with proceeds going to charity – must be removed after a complaint that they are offensive.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202882/Banned-police-Union-Flag-badge-backs-troops.html
Those wishing to support the badge wearing officers can sign the Downing Street petition at
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/PoliceUniform
Those wishing to know who made the complaint - fat chance! You live in state where anonymous denunciations are the norm.
What is happening to my poor country?
Scores of Scotland Yard officers are in open revolt after being banned from wearing Union Flag badges in support of British troops.
Met chiefs have decreed that the tiny emblems – which cost £1 with proceeds going to charity – must be removed after a complaint that they are offensive.
But furious junior officers are continuing to wear them in defiance at the politically correct stance.
A petition has been launched on the Downing Street website demanding they be allowed to wear the badges, which are to raise funds for the Royal British Legion and the Help for Heroes charity.
192 Mirthios. The sooner this lefty PC nightmare of a government and its shitty culture are consigned to the dustbin of history the better.
All I can say is SOS - Support Our Soldiers.
Google it.
It would be nice if there were people in charge who could see that there is nothing bad about saying “no” to people who are offended by the sight of the Union Flag.
Is Barbara Kelly still alive and would she stand in Luton South.
I wouldn’t give much for Rantzen’s chances if she did.