Will 2010 be the year of “Double Tactical Unwind”?
August 28th, 2009
Could the tactical switchers of ‘97 now go straight to the Tories?
One of aspects of the electorate that both the YouGov Scottish poll and this week’s GB survey from Angus-Reid have shown is the very distinctive approach to the Lockerbie bomber release by Lib Dem voters.
This is symptomatic I believe of their approach to politics generally and why what they think and do at elections can have a disproportionate impact at general elections. We saw that in 1997 when in Labour targets they were ready to “lend their support” to Tony Blair’s party to help oust the Tories.
In 2001 they seemed even more motivated to keep the Tories out and through their actions in seats that Labour had taken four years earlier helped Tony Blair to retain almost all of his majority even though his vote share and vote total was down.
By the last election in 2005 it was a different story. In the aftermath of the Iraq War the big shift was a six point reduction in the Labour share and Labour lost seats not because of moves to Michael Howard’s Tories but because the Lib Dem tactical voters of the previous two elections had gone back home.
The move was dubbed as “tactical unwind”. Given current polling I wonder whether in key seats we will see many of these voters go to the Tories in those key constituencies where such moves matter. Quite simply will we get “Double Tactical Unwind”.
The signs are there that something big is happening with this segment of the electorate. Back in August 2007 YouGov found that Lib Dem supporters split by 60% -to 23% in favour of Labour when asked “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?”. These voters are now given the Tories a significant lead.
This was backed up this week in the ICM poll when voters were asked, whether a Tory government under David Cameron, or a Labour one under Gordon Brown, would be best for Britain. A total of 56% of Lib Dems voters said they would rather see the Tories in power, against 36% who want Labour.
The critical thing here is what these voters do in specific seats when they are fully appraised of local electoral situations. If enough of them vote tactically for the Tories then Labour will suffer disproportionate losses on top of the swing predictions.
This is why the battle for the centre ground is paramount and why the biggest danger to Cameron is if he is seen to be giving ground to his right wing.
Mike Smithson
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The NJ-Gov Race —————-> (Betting Post)
A new survey conducted for James Carville’s organization Democracy Corps — a partisan org, Democratic — by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (QRR), gives Christie a smallish lead of 3 points.
Among Likely Voters (608) / MOE 4%:
Christie : 43 (+3)
Corzine : 41 (+6)
Daggett : 7 (-3)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nj_christie_43_corzine_41_demc.php
Sure, it’s a partisan poll. And sure, Corzine’s are quite low for an incumbent.
And sure, this poll is following a Rasmussen poll (a pollster with a notorious Republican house effect) showing this:
Chris Christie : 50 (-2)
Jon Corzine : 42 (+3)
Other: 2 (-2)
Undecided: 7 (+2)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nj_christie_47_corzine_36_rasm.php
However, those 2 polls are confirming the trend I flagged 2 days ago : Christie’s lead is evaporating under the heat — and that heat will only be fueled more by Corzine massive spending on negative ads. Nobody in New Jersey, virtually, likes Corzine; he’s a weak communicator, and filthy rich (as an ex-CEO of Goldman Sach!) — so bascially, the bald wrinkled guy has nothing to lose by throwing mud at his obscenely obese and somewhat self-righteous Republican opponent, to which it kinda stick.
Don’t believe me? Read Ambinder :
New Jersey voters are sick of the corruption pandemic, and right now, it seems as if the Republican, the crusading former U.S. Attorney, Chris Christie, is tied up in more questionable activities than the Democratic governor, Jon Corzine. Corzine isn’t popular, but the race is shifting from being a referendum on his performance to a choice between the devil they know and the one they’re learning more about.
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/08/campaigns_of_2009_and_2010_some_talking_points.php
My emphasis, of course.
And also a thing to remember: NJ is stuck inside the web of a ferocious unionist democratic GOTV machine.
Why I’m a posting this totally off-topic post : because there is a market in intrade for this race, and it’s quite liquid! I’m in now for Corzine for 4000 USD @ about 6.5 to 3.5 (for every 3.50$, I’ll be making 6.50$).
***
And BTW, Ezio admitted being totally gay.
Was there evidence of Lib Dem tactical voting in Norwich North?
It is difficult to tell from the count itself. Looking at the percentages (Greens increasing from 2.7% to 9.7%), it seems that Greens took many Lib Dem votes. I suspect the Conservatives having the best GOTV operation made the biggest difference, though I’m LD tactical voting played a small part.
The Lib Dems are vulnerable on the left by Greens, and on the right by Tories.
They may as well veer sharply left because Cameron is hoovering up libertarian-inclined centrists. I don’t understand why they want to cancel their policies on repealing tuition fees. They don’t need their numbers to particularly add up, as they aren’t really worth the detailed scrutiny at the moment. Not to mention, they need student votes.
Clegg needs to find a voice and a sense of purpose.
Certainly likely to be a Year of Tactical Blunders.
From today’s times:
“Gordon Brown is facing a Labour revolt over plans to cut the benefits of the poorest families by up to £15 a week, The Times can reveal. Proposals to be implemented next April, a month before a general election, could mean some people losing a fifth of their income.”
A spokeswoman for the Department for Work and Pensions said: “Local housing allowance is aimed at providing the people who need it most with decent accommodation. This small change will not affect our customers’ ability to pay their rent and further support is available to those on a low income to help with other expenses.”
‘This small change’ - how big a blunder is that?
O/T
Martin Day has become FAMOUS
http://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/77838/spoof-website-links-lib-dems-with-the-nazis.aspx
6. wibbler.
Lembit Opik MP was away on holiday and unavailable for comment, however a spokesperson said: “This page has obviously been created by a crank and isn’t going to harm us. I can’t see floating voters deciding against voting Liberal Democrat based on looking at this site, as ridiculous as it is.”
Is the right answer.
Roger Williams, however, comes across as a pompous ass.
It’s the economy. Except where it is civil liberties.
Labour’s Big Brother policies repel liberal-minded voters, and this is where Labour can benefit from a new Prime Minister who can change tack (since it is unlikely a new PM can instantly fix the economy, and just being anyone-but-Gordon will fool no-one).
You might think the Liberal Democrats would make more of civil liberties but then you are not Nick Clegg and I claim my five pounds.
OT Internet Explorer 8 displays the site properly, with the right hand links on the right of the page rather than below everything else, as in IE6. The default typeface is better too.
“I’m en route to Glasgow staying in a part of Cumbria which appears to be a total Vodafone black-spot. I have almost no reception or any other internet access. ”
That’s amazing. Everywhere I went in Thailand — and I rode at least 800 km deep into the country — I was able to get fast and cheap wireless internet connexion.
Is the UK now a second-rate country?
10, Is the UK now a second-rate country? (Phillipe Magnan)
No. Think private sector market efficiency.
In the bad old days of inefficient, public sector utilities, equal access to remote, rural areas was deemed vital. Vodafone is a screamingly efficient, market-driven, private sector company which presumably believes there are not enough customers in the Lake District.
In the same way those who covet Royal Mail’s monopoly on letters are more interested in urban business post than in schlepping Christmas cards to the Orkneys for 30 pence.
In 1997 there was a palpable feeling of ‘anyone but the Tories’ and in numerous seats people voted tactically to achieve that outcome. I suspect that whilst ‘anyone but Labour’ isn’t likely to be as strong but I think that it will be significant enough to completely unwind the anti-Conservative tactical vote and wind up a bit of anti-Labour tactical vote.
The bottom line is that Brown has turned himself into a hate figure – for various reasons, all of them quite valid. The theme of the GE is already fixed as: ‘Brown out’.
Dave has done a very solid job turning the Tories into an entirely plausible alternative – in fact the only plausible alternative.
The GE will see:
1.Tories turning out in large numbers, highly motivated to kill Brown off;
2.Labour’s core vote resigned and not turning out in huge numbers;
3.Floaters who went to Labour in 1997 or since going to Dave (or tactical LD)
4.LibDem voters sticking to LD unless in a no-hope seat and so supporting Dave
5.Fringe parties doing much worse everywhere than expected
So the premise of this thread is quite right. The result will be David Cameron PM with a working majority. Labour will get pummelled - but I don’t think the LDs will do quite so badly as some here on PB hope.
How strong would the tactical unwind effect be?
In a Tory/Labour marginal with a strong Lib Dem vote, the Yellows are going to push the “winning here” meme very strongly. Where the Lib Dem vote is weak, and tactical vote will be small.
As others have noted, the sandal wearing wing of the party may well go Green rather than Blue.
The bottom line is that Brown has turned himself into a hate figure – for various reasons, all of them quite valid. The theme of the GE is already fixed as: ‘Brown out’.
Dave has done a very solid job turning the Tories into an entirely plausible alternative – in fact the only plausible alternative.
The GE will see:
1. Tories turning out in large numbers, highly motivated to kill Brown off;
2. Labour’s core vote resigned and not turning out in huge numbers;
3. Floaters who went to Labour in 1997 or since going to Dave (or tactical LD)
4. LibDem voters sticking to LD unless in a no-hope seat and so supporting Dave
5. Fringe parties doing much worse everywhere than expected
So the premise of this thread is quite right. The result will be David Cameron PM with a working majority. Labour will get pummelled - but I don’t think the LDs will do quite so badly as some here on PB hope.
This is dynamite stuff.
“Around 34% of retired people have unsecured debts, owing an average of £7,344 each, according to Scottish Widows.”
This has risen 9% since last year.
And:
“15% of retired people have an outstanding mortgage on which they owe just over £50,000, £8,000 more than the average pensioner owed in 2008.”
http://money.aol.co.uk/pensioners-debt-grows-survey/article/20090826190548111374637?rsp=Money%20News
WTF?? Debt going up on average £8,750 - in a year? Have pensioners suddenly become the financially irresponsible generation? “What the hell, stick it on plastic, I’m gonna die soon anyway!” That is some bad Werthers Original problem they’ve got themselves. Or is it a measure of how much pensions are collapsing and mortgages not being paid? Either way, it suggests a heavily-voting segment of society is unlikely to be strewing rose-petals in front of Labour candidates on the way to the polling station…
14 - I’d agree on most of that, of course it depends what the shares end up and where the votes come from regionally. I’ve pretty much always been of the opinion that the Lib Dems will fall to about 35-40 seats, which would still represent a good result historically (well if you ignore anything before Lloyd-George).
14 Patrick, good stuff. However, I do wonder about point 4 - “LibDem voters sticking to LD”. I imagine they are going to be seriously love-bombed by the Tories during the GE campaign, with the “lend us your vote to kick out Brown” line. Clegg has to come up with a reason for LibDem’s to resist that siren lure - and fast. “We’re different!” is just fatuous. “Choose a better future!” is easily implemented - by getting rid of Brown and New Labour. And the Tories’ will hammer the line that only they can ensure that. It’s simply a function of the maths.
We are six/eight months from an election campaign kicking off. Yet there is a vacuum at the heart of the LibDems. They may have generated a massive brand loyalty. Or they may be swept aside as a Parliamentary irrelevence next time out. That both outcomes is still possible this near to the starting gun being fired must surely be laid at Nick Clegg’s door.
11 “Vodafone is a screamingly efficient, market-driven, private sector company which presumably believes there are not enough customers in the Lake District.”
You’ve obviously never been here.
There are obstacles to complete coverage for any utility here. They’re a small thing called mountains.
And then, there’s the small matter of the state imposing restrictions preventing Vodafone putting transmitters and relays on the top of all of ‘em. That’s that the nationalised Lake District National Park Planning Authority.
Could 20009 be the year the Gord decides “the game is up”
Betting markets should be a tad livelier soon
From Matthew Parris
Returning to Britain I find our Prime Minister, in at least one deep and mysterious sense, still away. What, when it comes to the release of the Lockerbie bomber, are Gordon Brown’s mental processes? What did he think when — as must have been the case — Scottish proposals to release al-Megrahi were disclosed to him. What did he think of the decision to release the Libyan before the row erupted? What does he think now? I’m reminded of a remark made in what is still the most penetrating book about Margaret Thatcher, One of Us, by the late Hugo Young. Young describes one of her Cabinet ministers: “He had a mind not so much open, as permanently vulnerable to a succession of opposing certainties.”
Weird-sounding to say this, I realise, but I have the strongest of impressions that Mr Brown has already resigned. I’m not sure on what level I mean that — whether perhaps I just mean he is resigned; or that he has taken a mental step still to be followed up by action; or that an agreement has been reached but has yet to be disclosed. But of one thing I’m strangely sure: that in some way, and on some level, Mr Brown has gone.
Cameron is also vulnerable from the drift to UKIP, though. In 2005 figures suggest that a maximum of 30 more seats(and 30 less to Labour and Lib Dem) might have gone to Conservative had there been no UKIP vote and if the UKIP vote that there was would otherwise have voted conservative.
As UKIP support is now double where it was in 2005, that represents a considerable threat to Cameron in maybe 100 seats.
The Middle Ground battle is far from won, but Cameron could win that and yet still fail to get a majority. That is why Hannan is so important keeping the UKIPPERS in the tent.
You have to remember that the LibDems were true innovators back in the 80’s & 90’s.
It’s easy to forget that “It’s a 2-horse race….”, “It’s so close…”, “only the LibDem candidate can beat the Tory”, and all the dodgy bar-charts, which are now adopted by all parties were, for about 15 years, the exclusive property of the yellow party.
Making an election /appear/ much closer than it really is has driven LibDem votes in marginal seats disproportionately… so they appeared to be electoral magicians. But in truth they just had the nsnazziest leaflets.
But now, all parties use these innovations so the point of difference of the LibDems no longer applies. They’re just like all the other parties. And everybody has twigged that ‘it isn’t a 2-horse race’. and ‘it’s not so close’. The campaign claims appear somewhat dishonest having been proven wrong so many times before.
The sad truth for the LibDem party is that they’ve never really believed anything. There are no guiding principles apart from winning elections for winnings sake. And whilst they had the most innovative campaign tactics and the best leaflets, having principles didn’t matter.
But now it does… which is why swing Labour voters have no reason to stop half-way on their way to the Tories.
The LibDems failure to keep-up the voter/electoral innovation and allow themselves to be overtaken in the innovation stakes by the Tories [for example in Norwich North], means that when it comes to the General Election, I’d say that their percentage will be squeezed further than the polls are indicating now.
BTW, Have you noticed how the new LibDem diamond doesn’t say ‘winning here’ any more.
13. “Where the Lib Dem vote is weak, and tactical vote will be small.”
Not sure that necessarily follows. The Lib Dem vote could be small because it has already been squeezed. In other words, there are still plenty of tactical voters / switchers in the constituency, it’s just that they’re no longer in the Lib Dem column.
As Mike rightly argues, these voters could easily go straight from Labour to Tory without stopping in the middle, especially if they’re primarily motivated by affecting the result of which party forms the government (ie it’s a two-horse race).
19. “Could 20009 be the year the Gord decides “the game is up””
Oh God, only another eighteen millenia to go then.
Like several other PBers, I’ve been YouGov’ed (deadline: this afternoon).
Voting intention, satisfaction ratings for Brown, Cameron, Clegg, Ainsworth, best PM; and all sorts of other stuff - including the following question, which should please SeanT:
Abdelbasset Ali al-Megrahi was convicted for the 1988 Lockerbie bombings. He was sentenced to a life sentence of at least 27 years following his 2001 conviction for the bombing.
It was announced last week that Abdelbasset Ali al-Megrahi would be released on compassionate grounds, in view of his diagnosis of advanced prostate cancer. He was subsequently flown back to his home country of Libya.
Which of the following statements comes closer to your view?
He should have been kept in jail
He should have been sent to a Scottish hospital or hospice where his relatives could have been with him
He was rightly returned to Libya
Don’t know
20. Tapestry.
If the UKIPpers want to risk a Labour government, they’re crazy.
Norwich North:
1 Right up to the poll, the LibDems were leafleting that “It’s so close”. In fact, Chloe Smith got 39% and the LibDem about 15%.
2 20 Tapestry August 28th, 2009 at 7:16 am
NN shows Labour has more to fear from UKIP than the Tories. My one abiding memory of the NN campaign was a defaced UKIP billboard with the words “UKIP - BNP for Pussies”.
When I reported this at the time, many posters sniggered but there’s a serious point here. If a labour voter wishes to register a protest, voting for the racist BNP may offend his/her principles. But UKIP allow him a respectable alternative. Which is what happened in NN.
With regard to the Lib Dems, a major difference from 2005 is that they no longer have the USP of the Iraq War policy.
Many previously Lib Dem voters will be aware that the “time for a change” message is strong and that change cannot be delivered by voting Lib Dem and indeed, in doing so, will risk Gordon Brown clinging on to power. Additionally, Clegg is demonstrably weaker as a performer than Kennedy was.
All in all, a bleak scenario for them - which is why their net loss of seats will be about 25.
Another general observation I’d make:
Brown and Labour don’t really in their hearts or their heads have any idea how profoundly they are hated by large sections of the electorate.
This has big implications for the way they are likely to play the GE campaign. They’ll say things on the assumption that someone, somewhere is listening. They’ll bang on about record A level results and be genuinely confused when everyone laughs. They’ll talk about equality and wonder why millions just give them the finger. They’ll big up Gordon’s moral compass and world saving heroics and stare open-mouthed while the nation vomits.
If the impending exile of the Labour party comes as a shock to any of them then they are truly thick. Actually I’m sure many do see it and regret bitterly the day they allowed themselves to be trampled by a psycho and his gang of thugs. Rats, sinking ships, too late, etc, etc.
(p.s. I agree with others upthread to some extent on LD fortunes. FWIW my opinion is that England will be a sea of blue all the way to timland – but the LDs will turn some of timland orange and so roughly compensate for the cider country losses).
21 “The sad truth for the LibDem party is that they’ve never really believed anything.”
Because their moments in the sun have been stunning by-election wins - where they had to attract Left, Right and Won’t Vote For Any Of The Buggers. They were obliged to be all things - and thus no thing - to all men/women/transgender/hermaphradites.
And the culmination of that process is that they have ended up with the politically androgenous Nick Clegg.
26 - Bunnco is absolutely right. UKIP in many places is the alternative of choice for the poor white unskilled former Labour voters for whom voting Tory is anathema, e.g. the most deprived ward in Great Yarmouth in the County Council elections.
29 - Why am I suddenly wondering if any of the 30 were not actually women??
19. “But of one thing I’m strangely sure: that in some way, and on some level, Mr Brown has gone.”
Agree.
26 - That graffiti about UKIP is what I remembered most about your Norwich North reports too. As you say, it is very illuminating.
The Lib Dems suffer a double threat at the general election. First, they are less likely than usual to benefit from tactical voting since their anti-Tory fishing is less potent than usual while the number of Lib Dem/Labour marginals is relatively small. Secondly, those voters wishing to make a protest or anti-tactical vote have an array of choices and the Lib Dems are nowhere near as well-defined for this purpose as the BNP, UKIP, the Greens or Respect.
25. UKIP is in many ways the mirror image of the Greens, whose supporters risk letting in a Tory government because they vote for their principles rather than tactically (remember when the Greens lumped all the main parties together as the ‘grey’ parties, implying there was no difference between them - at a time when the Tories were lead by Margaret Thatcher, IIRC). Indeed, in the US in 2000, the Green voters did prevent the most eco-conscious serious presidential candidate in history from reaching the White House, letting in GW Bush instead.
A section of UKIP voters is similar, lumping the main parties together as ‘pro-EU’, in the sense of being in favour of continued membership and so would not worry too much about whether Labour or the Tories got in as ‘they’d still be much the same despite the rhetoric’.
Off topic but one for the panel: did the court get this sentence right?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/8224801.stm
I was listening to Nick Clegg on channel 4 news last night, he had signed up for the bash the bankers campaign, and purge the parasites approach. Tax them, then claim that they contribute nothing to society. He had little to say on how to generate increases in GDP given that the banking sector would be hamstrung by his proposals. Is Clegg anything more than a large government, high tax politican and in the wrong party?
26. BNP for Pussies ! - LOLZ
Next stop - name change from UKIP to Free The United Kingdom Party.
Interesting that Labour voters are at last sniffing out UKIP. Up to 2005 it was almost entirely a Conservative-anger party. But Cameron still needs to watch his eurosceptics, and keep them in the tent, even with Labour’s vote fracturing.
31 James Burdett, How long were you laid up with this flu bug thingy. Its really nasty/ When did you start to feel better?
Off back to bed….
“BNP for Pussies”
Please don’t bad-mouth puss. Puss are great. I love puss.
It’s self-loving gays à la Ezio that I can’t stand.
So I’ll suggest “BNP for Fags”.
18 Vodafone stymied by mountains in the Lake District (Geoff H)
Yes, that’s the point. Getting services to remote areas is hard and expensive.
Politically this matters, especially for Conservatives. As public services are increasingly to be delivered by the private sector, the hidden cross-subsidies from town to country disappear, so either Conservative-voting rural areas will get worse services, or there will need to be explicit subsidies from poorer, urban, Labour-leaning voters, to affluent Conservative voters in the countryside. Robin Hood in reverse.
If Hitchens and others are right and Cameron’s Conservatives are drawn from the same metropolitan elite as Blairite New Labour, it will be worse services.
“And then, there’s the small matter of the state imposing restrictions preventing Vodafone putting transmitters and relays on the top of all of ‘em. That’s that the nationalised Lake District National Park Planning Authority.”
Restriction State interventions in the market? Smells like decline indeed.
Thailand is a military/police-state with a democratic mask. But it’s frightfully capitalistic. And it seems to me that it is working quite well. For instance : Compared to Canada and the USA, the prices for Internet (on mobile as well as on wifi computer), mobile phone and SMS is incredibly cheap. Seems like we are being ripped off back home. And furthermore, in some populated areas like the Lake District, you can’t have wifi internet!!! It’s crazy. The West is doomed on the long run…
The newsapers are really gunning for Brown and his invisible government at the moment. The Sun headline “Don’t you know there’s a bloody war on” will really hurt the government. On top of this big headlines re. The migrant baby boom and Labours planned raid on housing allowances for the poor.
I cannot remember such disastrous headlines week in, week out, for any government. Under Major we had loads of sleaze stories but Knowhere near as many headlines about the governments policy failures.
Labour are at a point now where there is no way back, in fact I can see this Afghanistan issue in particular being a massive vote loser. The public anger is immense on this 1 issue alone.
I can see Labour falling to the low 20’s soon !
Brown will not survive, there are now too many issues getting more serious and HE IS UNABLE TO MANAGE THEM ! This was the week the wheels finally came off !
Erratum : Restrictive State interventions…
36 The Lib Dems seem to have selected two populist areas to campaign on - Bad Bankers and Expense Cheat MPs, presumably guided by focus groups and looking at areas they can attack both Government & Conservatives.
Glegg yesterday demanded the other two parties signed up to his Expense Reform proposals - forgetting his own past claims, Born Again Reformer washed clean by contrition. Cable has been the driver for greedy bankers - his attacks on Barclays & HSBC for daring to survive the crisis without massive Government intervention seem driven by the fact the Government, without a shareholding, can’t direct them.
Not sure either will be as big an issue in 8 months time - Kelly will have reported by Autumn so reform will be in motion anyway and Banks/Credit Crunch will have been superseded by Debt and Unemployment.
Probably because you have a perverted mind, James.
34. I’m not sure. UKIP voters are almost universally right-wing, where Green voters are a very heterogenous lot. I know a couple of them who are very small c conservative in their outlook, but are scientists and consider all the green initiatives of the major parties to be all show. If any of the major parties committed to a serious carbon tax or cap and trade scheme they would immediately switch.
How about the Free United Kingdom Democratic Unionist Party?
#35, by antifrank August 28th, 2009 at 7:46 am
Off topic but one for the panel: did the court get this sentence right?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/8224801.stm
Yes.
The man from Carlisle was found guilty of victimising the weakest section of society. His incarceration in England will include the best [sic] NHS treatment his homeland can provide.
Ignoring whether al-Wotzit was the true-bomber or not, his conviction was one of politically-motivated terrorism. Assuming he is seriously ill, why should he not be shown compassion and returned to die in Libya?
It is realpolitik. It’s messy, but justice must be seen to be equitable to all parties.
47 - Would have a great acronym.
After yesterday’s humiliation for Sean “95%” T, here are the remaining details of that YouGov/Scottish Daily Mail poll, which have now been published on the YouGov website:
Westminster v.i.
(+/-change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 33% (-6)
SNP 25% (+7)
Con 19% (+3)
LD 16% (-7)
UKIP 3% (+3)
BNP 1% (+1)
Grn 1% (n/c)
oth 1%
Baxter gives:
Lab 38 seats (-2)
LD 11 seats (n/c)
SNP 7 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (+2)
Speaker 0 seats (-1)
50 Baxter not exactly showing a sea-change in Scottish politics there then…
Scottish Parliament regional v.i. (AMS)
(+/- change from Scottish GE 2007)
Lab 28% (-1)
SNP 27% (-4)
Con 17% (+3)
LD 15% (+4)
Grn 6% (+2)
SSP 3% (+2)
Sol 1% (-1)
oth 3%
29 – MM, “and the culmination of that process is that they have ended up with the politically androgynous Nick Clegg.”
Well put, I could never understand how a group of relatively intelligent people could vote for themselves, such a wet lettuce of a man. I guess ‘designed by committee’ applies here… and unfortunately it’s useless.
48 No - the judge should have sentenced him for the crime, giving the full tariff that such a serious crime deserves. Its important to the victims. their families and to society at large that the injustice should be seen to be punished appropriately. As it is the likelihood that with a two year sentence he could be freed after 8 months, ignoring time served in remand which could make that earlier. Possible that he could outlive that period.
As to whether as he nears death the Justice Secretary should remit the sentence and free him, that is a separate decision to be judged by Jack Straw or his successor at the time, it should not form part of the judge’s decision.
Yes.
54 Perhaps he could go for treatment in Libya. I hear they have excellent care facilities there…
The Scotland Votes Holyrood seat calculator gives:
Lab 44 MSPs (-2)
SNP 38 MSPs (-9)
Con 22 MSPs (+5)
LD 19 MSPs (+3)
Grn 5 MSPs (+3)
SSP 1 MSP (+1)
(Ind 0 (-1))
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
The threshold to form a majority govt is 65 MSPs, which could be achieved by:
LAB + LD + GRN = 68 MSPs (by far the most likely govt)
LAB + CON = 66 MSPs
It is impossible to see how the SNP could be part of any govt in such a parliament.
Philippe @ 41……”And furthermore, in some populated areas like the Lake District, you can’t have wifi internet!!! ”
And your problem is?
You clearly don’t realise that the Lake District is a beautiful area, an inspiration to poets and painters, an area for walkers and climbers and a National Park. We prize it’s beauty higher than wifi internet.
That’s not decline but a recognition that what we have is worth more than another mobile phone mast.
You sound like the kind of bloke who’d sell his grandmother for a cheaper call.
Leave my grandmother out of this you bully.
My view (based on little more than gut feeeling) is that one of the biggest effects in the election will be “soft tories” who in large numbers didn’t vote for Howard, will come and vote for Cameron.
Remember 15 million voted for Major, more than ever voted for Blair. This is still in many ways a conservative (small c) country, and many many people will be motivated to oust Brown, and prepared to support Cameron who simply did not vote in the last 1 or 2 low turnout elections.
Toyr majority of 80-100 is on I think.
Just reading a Q&A with Barrichello, this bit was quite interesting:
Q: Valencia again suggested that the Brawn car prefers higher temperatures. What about here in Spa?
RB: We found something on the mechanical set-up of the car there that I hope we can use here. But it is very clear that our car works very well on a hot track. At the beginning of the year it wasn’t so much the case, but I am prone to say that I think this weekend we will still be competitive, even though the temperature will definitely be lower than in Valencia. I am expecting the Red Bulls to be really tough and Ferrari. About McLaren I am not so sure - because of the high-speed corners they might suffer a bit more.
Have to wait and see of course, but if Brawn have found something else to improve it may have title race implications.
P1 is starting in 20 mins or so. I’m not going to write my pre-race piece for pb2 until after qualifying and when the race weights are known. Hopefully this will help improve the quality of the post and predictions (although given I got everything except Button beating the Red Bulls wrong last time it wouldn’t take much
).
- “Which of the following do you believe would make the
best Scottish First Minister?”
Alex Salmond the Scottish National Party leader 32%
Iain Gray the Scottish Labour leader 12%
Annabel Goldie the Scottish Conservative leader 11%
Tavish Scott the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader 6%
Patrick Harvie the Scottish Green leader 1%
Goldie is only 1 point behind Gray!! That just goes to illustrate the appalling performance of the East Lothian MSP.
Note to YouGov: If we are being pedantic, I would point out that Iain Gray is not “the Scottish Labour leader”. Technically, he only leads the Group of Labour
donkeysMSPs in the Scottish Parliament.50: Stuart Dickson
Any Lib Dem PR fans care to comment on the fact that despite being predicted to poll fewer votes in Scotland than the tories, and losing nearly 1/3 of their voters since last time, Baxter says the Lib Dems would still win an unchanged 11 seats to the tories measly 3?
Bizarre.
“If there is a referendum, the SNP government’s planned
referendum would ask voters whether they agree or
disagree ‘that the Scottish Government should negotiate
a settlement with the Government of the United
Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent
state’.”
“How would you vote if such a referendum were held
tomorrow?”
I would vote YES (i.e. for Scottish independence) 28%
I would vote NO (i.e. against Scottish independence) 57%
I would not vote 5%
Don’t know 11%
Excluding WNV + DK gives:
YES 33%
NO 67%
46. There are lots of (socially) right-wing voters who have supported Labour in the past.
Arguably, one of Labour’s biggest strategic dilemmas is how to reattract the economically left / socially right that made up the traditional WWC base when the party is now economically centrist / socially liberal.
58 “Leave my grandmother out of this you bully.”
Why should I if it leads to faster wifi internet access? Who is she - or you - to stand in the way of Vodafone?
And now the bit where SeanT (”95%” ha ha) totally humiliated himself:
“Abdelbasset Ali al-Megrahi was convicted for the
Lockerbie bombings in 1988. He was sentenced to a life
sentence of at least 27 years following his 2001
conviction for the bombing.”
“It was announced last week that Abdelbasset Ali al-
Megrahi would be released on compassionate grounds
in view of his diagnosis of advanced prostate cancer.
He was subsequently flown back to his home country of
Libya.”
“From what you know do you think releasing
Abdelbasset al-Megrahi was the right or wrong decision
to make?”
The right decision 43%
The wrong decision 51%
Don’t know 6%
Excluding DK:
The right decision 46%
The wrong decision 54%
Rather unusual that the winner of a PB bet should be the one “being humiliated”.
64. David Herdson - “Arguably, one of Labour’s biggest strategic dilemmas is how to reattract the economically left / socially right that made up the traditional WWC base when the party is now economically centrist / socially liberal.”
This is why John Reid was so exasperated with the Guardianistas regarding the smoking ban. It is a small point, but taking away the fags from the WWC was hardly likely to make the Labour Party popular.
67 - SeanT has shown himself to be unfit to hold the high office of poster of the year, didn’t you know?
67. Sean confidently predicted that 95% would be against the decision. Such poor powers of prediction are very humiliating. The poor lad.
SeanT is the new Roger.
69.
Yes, you are quite right!
“Which of the following statements comes closest to
your view?”
Kenny MacAskill was right to release the Lockerbie bomber
and should remain in his post 42%
Kenny MacAskill was wrong to release the Lockerbie
bomber and should resign his post 32%
Kenny MacAskill was wrong to release the Lockerbie
bomber but should remain in his post 20%
Don’t know 6%
68. If the Tories promise to review the smoking ban, so pubs and clubs can chose allow it, there are millions of votes to be won.
73 - and lost. The Tories would be mad to intervene in this area, because the ban is as quietly popular with many people as it is noisily unpopular with some smokers. The quality of an evening out for non-smokers has improved enormously in the last few years. Smokers still have the choice to nip outside for a fag. Or they could give up smoking, which is after all what they should be encouraged to do.
Stuart - give it a break would you with the SNP stuff ? I’m now scrolling passed all your comments as they seem to be about nothing else
75. Plato
Fine.
Perhaps you should give up on Scottish politics? Which is, after all, what you should be encouraged to do.
Er, Stuart baby, I won my bet. I said the majority of Scots were against the SNP’s decision, all you silly Nats were claiming the opposite.
I challenged you to a bet, after much huffing and puffing you agreed. Not only did you agree, Mister Red Meteor agreed to the bet “even though” he said, “I knew I was going to lose”.
I leave it for the judgment of pb posterity as to who suffered the humiliation here.
6. How funny that Martin’s pics are making waves with the Lib-Dems.
75. Plato, just a minor point, but how is presenting the findings of a survey of Scottish voters somehow equated in your mind as “SNP stuff”?
Surely these findings are of the utmost interest to people from ALL political parties in Scotland, not just the SNP?
73 If the Tories allowed smoking clubs - since it’s not illegal [yet]…
As a never-smoked/hate the smell person, I’d have no problem with it. Sure encourage those who want to give up to do so - but if someone wants to do it, and there is a legal market for it - why not?
68 New Labour was born out of Scots & North East England Labour diminishing the influence of London/Guardinista Labour by moving onto the centre ground and addressing the issues that most voters were concerned about. So it was Crime, Education, Health with a few bits of meat thrown to Guardinista tendency with Gay & Womens rights and later fox-hunting.
As the coalition that Blair gathered fractured, too little done for WWC voters in the strongholds and the Iraq war, the influence of the metropolitan left has grown. Thing is what the party looks like after the election. Will it be back to its traditional strongholds. inner cities, the North East, Scotland & Wales or have the last two moved away with SNP in Scotland and Conservatives/Plaid in Wales?
Also on F1: there’s the possibility of rain showers for both qualifying and the race. Something to bear in mind, and probably weather forecasts should be checked before betting.
#75, by Plato August 28th, 2009 at 9:15 am
gabble gah’bull (verb), definition: to post the same stuff repetitively, much to the annoyance of others. [Modern-English derivate from Hebrew.] c.f. stuart-dickson.
77. Sean, would you like me to republish your post where you claim that 95% would be against the decision?
47. FUKDUP! Excellent. Let’s call Nigel Farage now !
77. Oh yes, and Sean, stop lying (”all you silly Nats were claiming the opposite”).
Stuart seems to have a bee in his bonny bonnet about something.
11. The vodaphone coverage in general is worse than other companies. I used to be with Orange and signal was never an issue, since moving to vodaphone it is poor. If you are in a substantial building etc it can be a struggle to get a signal, and I am not living in the boondocks.
81. Ted
I think that it is highly likely that the rump Labour Party will move sharply back to the Old Left, as they are totally wiped out in central and southern England.
This, of course, is exactly what PM Cameron wants them to do: a Michael Foot.
88. malcolmG.
Maybe they’re punishing you for inability to spell their company’s name.
88 Noticed that - I can get all but Vodafone here (so my business mobile doesn’t work Hooray! but my private iPhone gets a good signal from O2)
8. http://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/77838/spoof-website-links-lib-dems-with-the-nazis.aspx
“You must be a registered user to leave a comment. Register or login here.” How illiberal is that?
Nick Clegg and a sex toy? Gillray or Rowlinson would have had a field day after Clegg boasted of knowing (cough)30 women.
- “Thinking about the decision to release al-Megrahi do
you think Scotland’s reputation has…?”
Improved a lot 5%
Improved a little 5%
Stayed about the same 17%
Diminished a little 29%
Diminished a lot 40%
Don’t know 5%
92 Stuart D
I would say that result is one of the more interesting. 69% of people thought it was a harmful decision to Scotland against 51% of people who thought it was wrong to release him. Suggests there is a further chunk of the people who were ok with him being released but would have preferred him staying in Scotland.
Here is the link to the detailed tables:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Scottish%20Daily%20Mail_26-Aug-2009.pdf
I note that Labour are doing slightly worse among women than men; and the SNP is doing vastly better among the 55+ age group. This is important, as this is the age group with the highest turnout.
Stuart, are you standing in for the ‘Bots’ until they arrive?
93. Jonathan
Perhaps. Or perhaps an awful lot of people take too much notice of hysterical BBC, Sky, CNN, Fox etc news reports?
We will see in the fullness of time.
Now I’m away for an hour long cycle ride, and then a swim, so if Sean wants to vent his splean, feel free.
Toodle pip!
On topic, I really can’t see any reason why Cameron would take notice of the righties in the Tory Party - he’s done a Blair and stolen back the centre ground.
The LDs I suspect are most vulnerable to being love-bombed by him with cute animal photos [except of course foxes] and squeezed by Greenies on the left.
As pointed out up thread - Clegg needs to get a voice and a position *picking on two opponents* that are also much bigger than you *at the same time* is stupid.
76- Plato I’m disappointed with you. I thought you would have learned by now that the Scots are allowed opinions of English politics but we aren’t allowed opinions on Scottish affairs. It’s the wisdom of the cyber nats.
From a Labour perspective, there is an argument that in the long run, it would be better for the Tory win to be emphatic. The last thing we’ll need is Cameron to get a majority insufficient to see through a full parliament. It is bad enough for Brown to be wiped out, but the scenario of a Cameron victory (10-15 majority) Brown resigns as leader - messy leadership election - Cameron goes again within 6 - 12 months for a definitive mandate. That becomes the doomsday election for Labour.
The double tactical unwind is less scary than no tactical unwind.
I don’t mind Stuarts SNP posts, I just wish he’d put all the Opinion Poll info in one lump rather than dozens of different.
He seems to have missed this story though, about Alex Salmond,cash and extreme islamism.
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Scottish Islamic Foundation Forced to Return Tax Payer Money
The Centre For Social Cohesion 19 August 2009
By Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens
The Scottish Islamic Foundation (SIF), Scotland’s primary Islamist pressure group, was forced this week to return £128,000 of public money.
The SIF is headed by Osama Saeed, who I have written about before, and whose Islamist outlook has been extensively covered by both Harry’s Place and the Centre for Social Cohesion. Last year, the SIF was awarded a staggering £400,000 by the Scottish National Party (SNP), most likely in the hope that Saeed’s skills in the world of identity politics would win them the favour of Scotland’s Muslim voters. For this reason, Saeed is also an SNP candidate.
This huge financial award from the SNP to an organisation run by an SNP candidate has led many to accuse the head of the party, Alex Salmond, of cronyism. It is particularly interesting that this accusation has come from other Scottish Muslim groups, including the Muslim Sufi community whose request for £30,000 to fund a Sufi festival in Glasgow was rebuffed.
The £128,000 that has, according to reports, “had to be returned because of irregularities surrounding what the money has been spent on”, was to go towards an SIF event called Islam Fest, which has never taken place. This event was modelled on England’s Islam Expo, a widely discredited event which was boycotted last year by all government ministers due to the extreme nature of its organisers, and in particular its links to Hamas.
The SIF has undoubtedly managed to outmuscle other more representative and non-Islamist Muslim groups and gain the favour of a party that is desperate for the fabled ‘Muslim vote’. The details of the SIF’s financial irregularities are not yet clear, although with any luck it could lead to a reassessment by the SNP of their relationship with Osama Saeed and the SIF.
http://europenews.dk/en/node/25430
93. JonathanD: I would say that result is one of the more interesting. 69% of people thought it was a harmful decision to Scotland against 51% of people who thought it was wrong to release him.
Which implies that there are people who thought the decision was harmful to Scotland and yet correct. These traitors to the Saltire must be tracked down and punished.
THe 1997 tactical switch was a huge con by labour and the lefty media which played up alleged Tory sleaze.
The biggest section conned were the lib dems who gifted labour seats in return for a small gain and ultimate betrayal on PR.
The electorate from that period, now 12 years more mature, have I suspect worked out the con. Hell hath no fury than an electorate scorned.
On another point
The Times reckons Brown is serving up a double whammy of tax claw-backs for the very poorest (budget small print). Reasonable or not this has probably hammered the final nail in for lefty backbenchers.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6812926.ece
What price Brown having a ruinous conference? Can he really afford to revisit the 10p fiasco - which a far as I know has not been fully resolved and some of the very poorst are still suffering.
PS
‘If I were Cameron’ this presents a glorious opportunity to ridicule the many sneaky stealth taxes contained in the small print of Browns budgets.
UK GDP for Q2 revised up very slightly to -0.7% from -0.8%
Why all this stuff about Scotland, it is such a minor part of the UK.
102: Still in recession though.
99 - Oops, don’t know where those sidebars came in.
Can someone edit that please.
On Broadband in rural areas.
Why doesn’t the Countryside Alliance spend more time in that stuff and less on Fox hunting?
102. DISWS.
Gordon has saved us!
Is this a SNP thread? Or can other obsessives post?
100 LS
I think it implies that a straight release / not release question doesn’t fully capture people’s thoughts. A large number of people would probably want the release but stay in a secure location in Scotland option.
OT
GDP revised upwards to -0.7% for Q2. Recovery!
102 Exports and Imports down more than expected, Consumer spending down 0.7% in quarter, 3% or so year on year.
Barclays bloke on expects growth in Q3
101 This second Budget small print story is dynamite - £780 a year is an enormous sum for someone scraping by on the bare minimum.
If the Tories termed it a Poor Tax - which it is - Labour is DOOMED
74: antifrank: The quality of an evening out for non-smokers has improved enormously in the last few years.
Although, there are far few venues available, given that pubs have been closing at the rate of 30 per month for some time.
Certainly the totality of the ban - disallowing choice by those whose private wealth is at stake (a system known as devolved democracy) - fits very well with the PC, fascistic, actions of this government.
Perhaps now we should move on disallowing the consumption of pizzas, cream-cakes, and sugar-laden drinks.
102, 109
Investment described as ‘plunging’
Still, Barclays bonce on Bloomberg bullish and says the BofE will end QE and the £££££ will ^^^^^^^^
Plato, it’s not always stupid to pick on two much bigger opponents at the same time. My brother-in-law is Chinese. A few years back, my sister went to pick up my nephew from after school club (he was then aged 6) to find him in deep disgrace. She asked what had happened.
It turned out that two much older boys, aged about 11, had been teasing him. They’d decided to call him “Chinny”. He’d decided he didn’t like this and told them “don’t call me Chinny”. To which, as most 11 year olds would, they responded “Chinny, Chinny, Chinny”.
Undaunted, he walked up to the two of them, grabbed them by the balls and squeezed. Hard.
So, it isn’t always stupid to take on two much bigger opponents at the same time, so long as you have a clear strategy.
“given that pubs have been closing at the rate of 30 per month for some time. ”
This has little to do with the smoking ban however. Pubs have been in decline for sometime, simply due to changing consumer preferences.
75. Stuart, you forgot to mention something about Sean in a post and upset Plato, naughty boy.
113 Perhaps your brother-in-law should stand for the LDs in that case
Stuart, posting about Scottish politics is not the problem. Endlessly droning on about the only moment in the sun that the SNP have had (McGraghi, Scottish spelling) is becoming tedious. It would be nice if you could put up an article on PB2 and restrict comment on the subject to there. Publish all other stuff, poll data, comment on current Scottish political events on here. The majority of people could care less about your spat with SeanT as would be shown by the amount of comments the PB2 article is likely to receive.
110 I see Labour hasn’t lost its aim when it comes to Punching Poor People In The Face For Being Poor…
At what point do Labour voters finally snap - and stick them in the chest with a bread knife?
79. And to everyone on pb interested in betting , there is a clue in the name, the site is not setup for swapping knitting patterns and recipes.
“Perhaps now we should move on disallowing the consumption of pizzas, cream-cakes, and sugar-laden drinks.”
The key difference with regards to smoking is that if you smoke, I am affected, whether through second-hand smoke inhalation or simply the saturation of my clothes with smoke.
In some ways, it fits in squarely with liberal principles - smoking is legal if you choose to partake in private, but where it affects others, it isn’t.
114 And the smoking ban has contributed to this at all? I find that very hard to believe.
The cheap price of supermarket alcohol has certainly been a big factor - particularly for soaks like me who would rather get quietly plastered on the sofa for 1/3 of the price
“Stuart, what do you wnat?”
“Freedom for Scotland from under the yoke of Englsih unionism!!”
“Er, I mean, what do you want to drink? It’s my round….”
The Lib Dems seem to have selected two populist areas to campaign on - Bad Bankers and Expense Cheat MPs, presumably guided by focus groups and looking at areas they can attack both Government & Conservatives.
By the time of the general election, bad bankers will be much less of an issue. If the Tory message on “Labour being in bed with the bankers hence bad regulation” gets through, then its a potential winner for anyone but Labour.
On expense cheats, thats an anti incumbent message that will potentially hurt all parties, including where relevant Lib Dems.
Where the Lib Dems are potentially going most wrong is trying to stand Canute like, in the path of a rising Blue tide. Of course they are going to try and defend their existing seats, but by riding the even stronger Red Ebb Tide, they have far more to gain.
So it has to be Lib Dem the only alternative in Labour, not Conservative help seats.
Off Topic.
This Population news is very good.
People living longer and the first signs that the long term decline in the % of young people in the population may at last be reversing.
90. Statto, I refuse to use their stupid name spelling, if I was paying for it myself I would have binned it but have no option but to stay with them.
120 The Food Standards Authority are already proposing changing sizes of chocolate bars, reducing the availability of high fat/high sugar foodstuffs. Not that far away.
124 Its good news that people are living longer if you have made sensible provision legislatively for pension provision.
97, Clegg is amusing. His use of PMQs to hold the Tory Opposition to account is just bizarre.
Btw, when do we get preliminary Q3 figures?
125. malcolmG: I refuse to use their stupid name spelling
OK, mallcumGEE, I take your point.
128 I expect that lot that were saying Q2 might be in growth are probably projecting +4% as we speak
I think it will be small growth 0.2% or some such
124: Good if theres plenty of well skilled trained jobs for them…not so good if there isn’t.
125 Someone better tell wage slave about GideO in that case - oh and Chameron.
130, even if it’s marginal, it’ll be a boost for Darling as his widely derided prediction will be proved accurate.
However it will also mean they can’t use the line about not cutting in a recession. Because we won’t be in one.
128. Morris Dancer: when do we get preliminary Q3 figures?
23rd October.
128 MD
Prelim Q3 GDP Friday 23rd Oct
“And the smoking ban has contributed to this at all? I find that very hard to believe.”
I’m sure that it’s possible the ban may have reduce business somewhat further (although it could be argued that people would be more willing to go when they know they won’t end up smelling like an ashtray…), but the trend was there before the ban and revoking it won’t change it.
134/135, thanks
So, presumably Q1 2010 figures would be out in late April. Just wonder if they’ll be released prior to or after the GE.
133: Still be well, well under his 1.25% growth for the year he was predicting though.
Perhaps Stuart Dickson could provide us with the population data for Scotland.
Sadly, under the SNP they may be lagging behind England in fertility and rising life expectancy.
137 Don’t be silly Mr Dancer - as Gordon told us, we can’t have an election as it would cause chaos…
136 - Nobody believes a Tory govt will touch the smoking ban do they?
Seriously?
139: Curious tim…if rising population is good, at what point does the rise tip into being bad for the country?
137. Morris Dancer: So, presumably Q1 2010 figures would be out in late April.
Yeah, it’s usually the fourth Friday of the next quarter, so I expect 23rd April. Smack bang in the middle of a May 6th election campaign.
113.”So, it isn’t always stupid to take on two much bigger opponents at the same time, so long as you have a clear strategy.”
antifrank, :D. Reminds me of my youngest son when tackling his big brothers.
138, that’s true. But I still think overall that any growth in Q3 would be good for Labour.
140, democracy = chaos!
Brown = saviour of the world!
Tory policy = unemployment!
141 How about devolving power down to the local population/council to decide if they want to allow smoking clubs - like they do with lap-dancing currently?
142 When his farm gets compulsorily purchased at forty quid an acre to build a new town on…
“under the SNP” ?? WTF is tim on about? Scotland has been run by Labour for generations and under labour people have fled the country, have adopted the most unhealthy lifestyle in Europe (and elsewhere) and are dying young and giving up on children …
Yet to tim, lo and behold, this is all the fault of a few months worth of a minority SNP government.
Certainly its not the Tories fault - maybe the Scots should review their voting habits
142. Slackbladder.
I’m amazed that anyone can praise the single worst thing that humans are doing to the planet, namely breeding in an uncontrolled manner. We’re the only animal that can’t naturally keep its population stable, because we’ve become “intelligent” enough to be able to develop our natural instinct for self-preservation scientifically - and beyond the point where other factors can conspire to apply a downward push to the population total.
117. At least you are interested enough in it Don, so it had some merit. Also whilst able to speak for yourself , there may be other people interested in the outcome of the outrageous claim that has now been shown to be wildly inaccurate as predicted.
More comedy on LabourList. The BBC is rightwing, apparently.
http://www.labourlist.org/the_bbc_bastion_right_conservative_mehdi_hasan
149: It’s the biggest elephant in the room for sure in the world. But even attempting to approach the subject is going to cause problems for obviously reasons.
148 TrevorsDen, I think the term normally used for a response such as that is “hook, line and sinker”
133 - the finance pages are reporting a massive fall in business investment which makes the -0.8 decline in growth look optimistic. Its expected to be revised down to -1.0 to -1.5%
PS
Pubs are in decline due to the huge cot of a pint - not helped by all the business red tape taxes on beer and the smoking ban. The ban has not resulted in thousands flocking back to smoke free pubs.
117. At least you are interested enough in it Don, so it had some merit. Also whilst able to speak for yourself , there may be other people interested in the outcome of the outrageous claim that has now been shown to be wildly inaccurate as predicted.
This would not be served by an article on P2 how?
152. Slackbladder.
Oh, indeed. But since I’m not seeking election to public office, and don’t expect ever to do, I can sound off about it on a blog!
I’m going to do my part: when I’m ready to be a father, I intend to adopt.
154 the figure was revised this morning to -0.7% so it was revised up (albeit marginally)
151
“The corporation’s coverage of the Queen’s golden jubilee celebrations ”
Ah, he must have been one of those chaps that went to the Mall and saw only foriegners.
All he does is point to the history of people like Nick Robinson. One would think you’d need to take into account what they do now. Obviously I’m just not clever enough……
Slack,
The West needs young people to take care of the all old people! Haven’t you noticed that the West has become some kind of geriatric kindergarden?
154: Simple answer….put more and more duty on supermarket/offlicence drink, and cut it on on-licence.
Make the licences rule more stringent and enforce them to reward good well run pubs.
GDP Q3 - It would be very surprising in view of the trend were this to be in positive territory. I expect something similar to Q2, probably within the range of -0.4 to -0.8.
So when does Darling have to confront the fact that his 2009/10/11 growth numbers are a fairy tale? Surely they will have to be revised downwards - and the borrowing revised upwards. But when? Given that worries on debt and umemployment seem to be trumping potential green shoots in the economy, that does look to be more of a hit for Labour being stored up…
151 - Let’s make Norman Tebbit a Governor of the BBC
I love the fallacy of “it is criticised from both sides, ergo it’s neutral”. It only takes a modicum of thought to see how that doesn’t follow.
[15] - That is some bad Werthers Original problem they’ve got themselves. Or is it a measure of how much pensions are collapsing and mortgages not being paid?
What a narrow view you have. It’s not just about pensioner’s own finances, but that of their family as a whole. The obvious explanation is that they find it easier to borrow money than their children or grandchildren do, due to a combination of low existing debt levels and secure income [pension].
Presumably they are increasing their own mortgages to help their descendants onto the property ladder [first-time buyers will generally be seen as a more risky lend than long-time owner-occupiers who are now pensioners], and the unsecured debt may well be to help pay for large outlays such as weddings and university.
Your final conclusion is correct, though. They’re hardly going to thank Brown for making the life of their children and grandchildren more difficult than they have to be.
” I intend to adopt.”
Behind every sexual drive, every erotic desire, lies the genetic pulsion to make babies, even if it is mostly unconscious.
164. David.
The thing is, the BBC is not criticised equally from both sides, or anything like.
Oh bejasus. Can we not have another thread on the trivial inner politics of some rainy, pretty, windswept, fairly insignificant northern province of the UK, aka Scotland. It’s like having endless debates on the governance of the Farne islands.
STUART: NO ONE CARES THAT MUCH
But, for the last time (and I apologise to all pb ers for this tediousness - as you can see it’s not me), I did NOT say 95% of Scots would be “against the decision”. I said 95% of Scots would probably agree the release was handled in a naive or foolish way.
That is very different from disagreeing with the actual decision. It is possible to believe the decision was morally correct but badly handled. I’m sure many in Scotland feel that.
Indeed, given the hero’s welcome the Libyan got in Tripoli, and the photo-op with Gadaffi, the waving flags and limos, all of which we were assured wouldn’t happen, and all of which left the Nats looking like a bunch of smacked bottoms, it’s difficult not to believe there was some naivety here, at best.
However, I did not bet on this assertion coz 1, I don’t have to, 2. it’s almost unprovable (are we going to get a poll on naivety and foolishness?), and 3. I only bet when I am damn sure I am going to win.
This is in contrast to Nats, who apparently only bet when they are damn sure they are going to lose.
And there is an an end to this matter whatever the hell you say. Besides, we all know why you are chucking your tartan toys out of your kilted pram, its nothing to do with Megrahi. Its that terrible poll on independence.
Two to one against independence? With a massively unpopular government in London? And a popular SNP leader? And oil going back up in price? And Labour down and out in Scotland?
Independence is not going to happen, and you know it, and this saddens you, so you are lashing out.
We share you pain. Now shut the F up.
156: My missus doesn’t want children…I’m ok with that. I can sit back richer and have the smug statisfication that I’m doing more for the enivronment and tackling global warming than any parent is doing.
165 Judging by past comments from OGH - pension income/savings income has been very badly damaged through Gordon’s raids and the collapse of interest rates.
169 - My gut feeling is that virtually every woman over 40 without children turn into an evil witch when over 50!
171 *pops out to buy broomstick*
Further to my 167, I would advise David to read up on the “hostile media effect”.
The FOAK has a pretty well-cited article on this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect
In the first major study of this phenomenon,[3] pro-Palestinian students and pro-Israeli students at Stanford University were shown the same news filmstrips pertaining to the then-recent Sabra and Shatila massacre of Palestinian refugees by Christian Lebanese militia fighters in Beirut during the Lebanese Civil War. On a number of objective measures, both sides found that these identical news clips were slanted in favor of the other side. Pro-Israeli students reported seeing more anti-Israel references and fewer favorable references to Israel in the news report and pro-Palestinian students reported seeing more anti-Palestinian references, and so on. Both sides said a neutral observer would have a more negative view of their side from viewing the clips, and that the media would have excused the other side where it blamed their side.
I think the growth figures for Q3 and Q4 09 are going to be crucial for Labour, as to whether their defeat at the GE is just a nasty reversal, or a catastrophic rout.
If Britain is still in recession months after almost every other major country has pulled out, then it makes Brown look beyond incompetent and mendacious, it makes him look positively destructive in his lies and his stupidity. “We are best placed”??
The government will then be crushed at the election.
If growth can return quite soon, i.e. now, then Labour might scrape to a decent 200-250 seats, maybe even more.
165 T(LZ) - there might just have been an ironic element of playing the old folks stereotype card. But I was genuinely surprised at the scale of the hit to the finances of the retired. So it seems the cash-machine of remortgaging has been replaced by taking out a loan at the Bank of Mum & Dad. What when that has a run on it?
Anyway - peace offering?
http://www.exzooberance.com/virtual%20zoo/they%20walk/zebra/Zebra%20485000.jpg
174 Surely it’s the lag factors such as umemployment [which may still be rising/flat 6-12 months from now] that will still hurt Labour?
Being told that the recession is over vs. still having no job/poor prospects/debts is the vote killer - particularly if those most affected are at the lower end of the income scale/least educated/less able to change their outcomes.
FPT. 302.Oracle, this is a rerun of the 10p tax con. Brown’s last budget as Chancellor had completely unraveled within minutes of him sitting down, and the subsequent 24 hour media frenzy was soon forgotten as he took over as PM. And then it was ignored for months despite all the chatter on here about it, and Darling quietly trying to put it right before the voters noticed in their pay packets.
But it exploded in their faces during a by election anyway because of Brown’s stubborn refusal to admit he had made a mistake.
The economy is in recession, public debt and unemployment getting worse as each month goes by.
We have had expenses and smeargate.
We are seeing the most horrific casualty figures in Afghanistan, I think we have now lost nearly 70, yes 70 soldiers this year alone.
Labour had horrendous local and Euro election results.
Brown has totally disappeared for weeks, and there are no real hints of any co-ordinated strategies in place in the build up to the Conference season. Brown is supposed to get up and rally the Labour troops in the big pre election speech.
And then Megrahi’s release, and despite no one being able to link the decision directly to Brown he goes into hiding refusing to comment for nearly a week, and then comes out and states that he ain’t going to anyway. Well he could have done that from the garden of his house in Fife last Thursday. And it would probable not lasted as long in the news.
But Michael Portillo warned about the pending bad news coming out next April from the budget on This Week a while ago, and suggested that if the government had any sense they would go for a GE before those April pay packets hit the doorsteps. They have no wriggle room because of the state of the public finances now. But surely they cannot seriously be contemplating allowing the 10p tax con to be replayed in the runner up to a GE???
What if Brown goes, interim leader to take them through a GE in the Autumn or early spring? Could he stand down at the Labour Conference or New Year?
Latest CCHQ email on the subject of Lockerbie.
“Dear P,
A lot can supposedly happen in a week in politics. Not under Labour. It was last Thursday that I wrote to the Prime Minister asking him about both the British Government’s role in, and his own personal view of, the release of Mr al-Megrahi. One week on and we’re still none the wiser.
All he has said is that he was “angry” and “repulsed” by the scenes in Tripoli. Of course he was. So was everyone. Seeing a convicted murderer being treated like a returning hero was disgusting, especially for those who lost loved ones in the tragedy.
But the real questions remain unanswered. To begin with, what dealings has his Government had with that of Libya on this issue? For our part, the Conservative Party will be putting down parliamentary questions to find out.
And most importantly of all, what is Gordon Brown’s opinion of the decision to return Mr al-Megrahi on compassionate grounds? I have made my view clear. I think it was wrong. I see no justice in affording mercy to someone who showed no mercy to his victims. Others have expressed similar opinions too.
But what does the Prime Minister think? It’s not good enough hiding behind the cloak of constitutional convention and saying this is a devolved matter. On a matter of international importance, which has damaged our reputation abroad and undermined relations with our foremost ally, we need to know what the Prime Minister thinks.
That is a basic requirement of leadership - a quality which once again Gordon Brown has demonstrated he lacks.”
149 - In this country fertility rates have been falling for thirty five years resulting in an aging population and the need for fertile immigrants.
If there is a worry in these figures it is that many of those recent arrivals may leave due to the recession.
171. Sean , you just cannot admit that you were wrong, you and Brown are very alike in some ways.
6. wibbler August 28th, 2009 at 4:56 am
The media are liars! I have not targeted Charles Kennedy, Jo Swinson or that bloke from Manchester Withington! How can that be every MP?! Given some of the B0ll0cks LD go round doing i dont think a series of “Funny” pictures is too bad and articles that take the piss or point to LD double standards. Shame i had not preduced the Monkey shot in time!
Currently in production is the war of the worlds picture of Lembit Tripod!
Apparnetly he is searching for Uranus in it! 
[175] - Er, yes, I was obviously practising for my future role of grumpy old man..
Don’t suppose there will be so much worry about inheritance tax if gramps house has to be sold off just to cover his mortgage, though.
On zebras, I have a dilemma. On the one hand this place appears to be run by a bunch of people with something of a tenuous link to Dundee, and I don’t really want to support them spreading the word. But then, they have a foal zebra. What to do?
http://www.noahsarkzoofarm.co.uk/pages/visiting/visiting.php
152,155
Everyone goes on about China and its coal fired power stations, and fast increasing resource usage etc.
But I suspect their 1 child policy is probably the single greenest policy ever enacted anywhere in the world by any government in terms of CO2 emissions. (Whatever else you may think of it, and despite the fact that that was not its purpose)
164, not an economist, but with Germany, Japan and France pulling out of recession and the rate of GDP decline falling last quarter, wouldn’t the trends suggest a moderate rise?
177, there’s also the realistic possibility that GDP could rise into the black but plunge back into the red. If we do have a GE on 6th May (I think it might be earlier) this could be a big problem.
186. Jon C: But I suspect their 1 child policy is probably the single greenest policy ever enacted anywhere in the world by any government in terms of CO2 emissions
Well, you know what they say.
Respiration: C6H12O6 (aq) + 6 O2 (g) → 6 CO2 (g) + 6 H2O (l)
Save the planet: stop breathing.
Another of the hidden Labour cuts (lies) has been revealed !
This is going to cause lots of trouble and internal Labour squabbling like the 10p tax fiasco. What a bunch of shameful morons !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6103273/Gordon-Brown-faces-revolt-over-benefit-changes.html
186 - The one child policy is being reversed now, starting with Shanghai as it has resulted in a huge imbalance of men to women and a projected unsustainable age imbalance.
Are we in danger of overestimating the economic ability of general public? Does the average voter really take in the measure of economic growth or will they be more likely to look at their own finance indictators. People they know or themselves being made unemployed, the tax they pay, the interest rates they pay. If so, I can’t see even good growth figures having any effect for Labour.
On Smoking Ban
No party will change it. What should be encouraged is the setting up of small outside areas, with some sort of covering, preferably of the main road where someone can have a quick fag if they want. This is particularly true for new premises which shouldn’t be granted planning permission without this.
On Growth
We’ve already seen a large fall in growth, so small drops/increases are pretty irrelevant. The problem for the government (this or the next), is that any return to small growth is likely to end QE, send the pound up, interest rates with out and prolong the pain. I think we’re heading for a Japan style decade (it’s already been 2 years so this isn’t fanciful).
On Scotland
Anyone noticed that Labour seem to be doing a bit better in Scotland? This seems to confirm my view that a large part of the SNP vote is protesting Labour voters who won’t vote tory. The danger for Labour is that the tory problem in Scotland is going to become a Labour problem in the South.
On Population
I’ve not got a problem with a rising population. We’re still below population densities found in most of asia. This does have implications for politics though. Rising population needs housing, transport, jobs, energy, NEW schools, hospital capacity and the like. That’s where the money will go over the next couple of decades, particularly housing, transport and energy. Not sure any of the parties are ready for this.
And now I’m off to find a new barber, as the one I’ve used for the last 3 years has gone bust.
192: Given that a lot of asia cities have shanty/shack towns I’m not sure thats a great thing
192 - You should ask OGH which barber he uses.
145 - Curious tim…if rising population is good, at what point does the rise tip into being bad for the country?
Depends on the age structure of the population amongst other things.
Remember the baby boomers are about to retire.
On China (then I’m of)
The one child policy was a failure, see this chart of China’s population:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ChinaDemography.svg
What has finally slowed down China’s birth rate, particularly in rural areas, is growth and the imbalance of men to women. Current population growth is finally below replacement rate, but this is a very recent phenomenon.
However it will also mean they can’t use the line about not cutting in a recession. Because we won’t be in one.
by Morris Dancer August 28th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Good point, and I wonder if that is the Darling plan. Wait till the recession technically ends and then say the cuts can now be announced/implemented.
It is one way to try to finesse the Brown idiocy about there being no plans to cut spending.
Would it wash?
Unlikely. Because they could have said the same thing weeks ago rather than all the witter about Tory cuts and Labour ‘investment’.
194 - They went under in the recession of the early eighties.
But don’t tell Mike, he doesn’t need to know.
“Will 2010 be the year of “Double Tactical Unwind”?”
Matthew Parris in the Times.
“Lethal for Labour
Talking of T-shirts, I saw one recently on a most un-Tory-looking youth: across its front I’M NOT INTERESTED IN POLITICS BUT I DON’T LIKE LABOUR. Polling experts emphasise the importance of what they call DA (differential abstention: meaning more stay-at-homes among one party’s declared supporters than another’s) but this looks more serious. For Labour, GA (or galvanised apathy) could prove a lethal force. I’d recommend the Tories have a million of these T-shirts produced — anonymously.”
183. I can’t admit I was wrong, because I was right. Despite yours and Stuart’s increasingly uterine claims, I never said 95% of the Scottish public opposed the decision, I said 95% would probably regard the handling as naive and foolish.
How do I know I said this? With my newfound mastery of Google site-searching (thanks antifrank?) I found the exact quote in five seconds.
Here it is:
” Second, even if half the Scots people support the SNP’s decision to release Megrahi to freedom in Libya, I doubt that one in twenty of them thought the decision was well handled by Salmond and MacAskill, given the grotesque hero’s welcome he got, the photo-op with Gadaffi, the limo and the waving saltires, all of which was so entirely predictable by a three year old.
At best, 95% of Scots will think the SNP were naive and foolish (as they have now basically admitted themselves
by SeanT August 26th, 2009 at 3:12 am”
Do you see what I did there, malky? I generously agreed that maybe half of the Scottish people MIGHT support the decision “but I doubt one in twenty thought it was well handled… 95% of Scots will think the SNP were naive and foolish”.
And there, for the love of God, can we let the matter rest, I will not respond to any more comments on this, not matter how deliciously stupid they might be.
Now go and pick on someone your own size - i.e. an intellectual midget.
177.
“If growth can return quite soon, i.e. now, then Labour might scrape to a decent 200-250 seats, maybe even more.”
Don’t be so deluded the government was even more unpopular before the recession than they are now …. Look back at the polls.
On top of all this they are now hated and knowone is listening. If Gordon Brown promised to cut income tax by 5p for everyone and national insurance by half .. It wouldn’t even register in peoples radar ! This is because the Labour party have ruined this country ruined the society within it and Bankrupt the nation once AGAIN !
Any time of economic recovery is going to take years to gather momentum for lending top resume to normal levels and for people to feel good about their lives again.
And Labour are not the answer !!
We dont want another five years of further snooping, excessive binge spending, rising immigration, false employment, rising crime etc etc
F4ck off Labour !!
195: But what your saying is that population needs to be on an ever increasing spiral (more old people leads to more people working to sustain them…leads to more old people etc etc).
The UK population is now 61m. At what point does the social costs of increased population outweigh the economic benefit. Given that 1 in 5 young people are out of work, how can we continue to justify continuous population rises?
200 I didn’t think that Gabble was around today?
185 The bonus of the baby tapir should swing the decision!!
192. Then you obviously haven’t travelled enough.
Some parts of Asia are horribly and blatantly overpopulated. Java is a good example. The island of Java is smaller than England, it has a population of 120 million.
It is almost impossible to drive down some Javanese streets without running someone over. This is no joke, I’ve been there.
189
If there is a revolt, it will be quiet and ended quickly.
Labour are determined (for some opaque reason) to fall into the singular gravity well that is Gordon ‘Our Glorious (and Courageous ™) Leader’ Brown.
They are entering another universe, where Labour is the only political party and the poor live in (state-approved) palaces, while the rich are sent down mines to eke out a miserable existance hewing rock.
The State Commissars are daily subjected to ritual public adoration (”Oh how tedious, but I suppose we deserve it”) and Gordo the Grate is worshipped as a God.
Personally, the PLP is off its collective chump and has royally earned everything it will get, come the GE.
200. Sean , you can never just stop at a reasoned post , you cannot stop yourself feeding your ego and resorting to personal insults. It diminishes you greatly and is very sad.
200. I think that’s what they called swatted.
[172] - I can sit back richer and have the smug statisfication that I’m doing more for the enivronment and tackling global warming than any parent is doing.
That simply isn’t true. If a couple emigrated from the US [per capita CO2 emissions = 19 tonnes (2006)] and moved to the UK [per capita CO2 emissions = 9.4 tonnes (2006)], then they could have two children and still have less global warming impact [37.6 tonnes CO2 pa] than if they stayed childless in the US [38 tonnes CO2 pa].
Population is not the biggest problem. The efficiency of the way in which we use resources is.
207 - And calling someone a cockroach is a term of endearment?
209: Point taken…(tackling global warming (sorry climate change) without moving to another country, then)
208. I don’t think you have a grasp on reality , all it shows is that he is juvenile and has a mean streak, as per 207 he cannot make a reasonable post without grandstanding for moronic imbeciles like you. He helps his insecurity with adulation from the likes of you, not exactly an impressive feat.
205 120m !!! What do they eat? Each other may be a good idea.
213: Well this is Java…land of the cannibal. Oh and their coffee is good.
205 And with Java’s useable land area significantly reduced by active volcanoes (both lava and mud) too…
212- Pots and Kettles round 2- fight!
209. Timothy zebras.
The absolute size of the population isn’t the problem - it’s that it’s spiralling out of control. Eventually, we’re going to run out of room and/or resources.
Unless we hurry up the space programme and start colonising.
200. Sean , you can never just stop at a reasoned post , you cannot stop yourself feeding your ego and resorting to personal insults. It diminishes you greatly and is very sad.
by malcolmG August 28th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Says the man stroking his own ego!
Now give it a rest, stop throwing bait on the water. Write something remotely interesting and get it published on PB2 were you can continue your w4nkfest over the SNP moment in the sun.
214: Or am I mixed java with Papua New Guinea. I think I am….
217 - Let’s colonise Jupiter for the French, and then take over the spare lands of France.
212. Malcolm, you’ve fallen right into the trap there. As Bob says Pots and Kettles.
217- I read a very good book by Carl Sagan called Pale Blue Dot. He goes into quite a lot of detail about how you would go about settling on Mars, it’s really interesting. One of the biggest failures of the second half of the twentieth century was giving up on manned space flights.
Malcolm, in light of your comment at 207
“you can never just stop at a reasoned post , you cannot stop yourself feeding your ego and resorting to personal insults. It diminishes you greatly and is very sad”
What do you think of a poster who calls another poster a cockroach?
I mean, come on, what it does it really say about that poster?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/08/24/ph-poll-lib-dems-most-likely-to-back-the-release/#comment-1188796
*ignores malcolm, out of gentlemanly respect for the afflicted*
215. Absolutely true. Half the country is uninhabitable and sulphrous lava slopes. So the 120m all have to live in the “nice” bit.
The whole country is like one big Calcutta - in terms of overcrowding. It’s quite astonishing.
Of course its the volcanoes that *cause* this huge population: they also make the soil incredibly fertile. Add in plentiful rain and lashings of hot sunshine, and I believe Java is one of the most fecund spots on earth. Three rice harvests a year, etc.
It’s still a pretty ghastly place to live, unless you like lots of company in the toilet.
209
Johnathan
“Population is not the biggest problem. The efficiency of the way in which we use resources is.”
I think that is incorrect. Resources are eventually finite so population will be a problem.
Have you noticed food prices?
[211] - tackling global warming (sorry climate change) without moving to another country, then
Using figures for different countries is merely a simple proxy for using resources more or less efficiently. Although in some ways it is harder to reduce CO2 emissions in the US - eg due to the transport infrastructure - there will be many families that emit less CO2 than childless couples in both countries.
220. TSE.
I like it!
Right now, I’m going to colonise the land of nod.
218. Up pops Brain of Britain who has yet to post anything other than complaints about someone else’s posts. Don get a grip and post something original yourself.
224 Some more on Javan mud volcanoes:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,442408,00.html
223- you must be another one of the “moronic imbeciles”
who help “his insecurity with adulation” that Malcolm warned us of. It’s a real shame that the anti cyber nat posters on here can’t just keep to sensible debating language like what Malcolm uses.
223 And there was of course no reason to resort to playground insults either I believe.
My Googling skills are crap so I’ll have to rely on my memory for that one, unless of course anyone can find it
228- Malcolm = King of kettles (kok)
230 - That must be it. I’m quite impressed that i’ve moved upto the level of Moronic imbecile, normally my level is of court jester.
Thinking very hard of what could “Cyber Nat” be in rhyming slang.
Any suggestions anyone?
230 - “It’s a real shame that the anti cyber nat posters on here can’t just keep to sensible debating language like what Malcolm uses.”
Too true. Unionists are such scum.
[217] - The absolute size of the population isn’t the problem - it’s that it’s spiralling out of control.
Projections I have heard see population levelling off in mid-century before slowly declining. Where is this “spiralling out of control” of which you speak? When prosperity and relative freedom, particularly for women, is increased, population growth declines.
[222] - I haven’t read the Carl Sagan book, but I did read “The Case for Mars” by Robert Zubrin. I agree it’s a shame we’ve stepped back from that. In my opinion NASA is still heading off down dead-ends with its return to the Moon strategy.
Don’t be unkind to Malcolm.
Blame the Scottish education system.
236 The Nats are all a bit tetchy until they have had their first DFMB sugar-shock of the day…
How to save £150m and lose 300k votes in one easy lesson - bring in a benefit last year for the poorest and remove it in the run up to a GE
“About 300,000 people gained from the measure introduced last year. Ministers say scrapping it will save £150m.
Labour MP Frank Field said it was “crazy” and said he would table a Commons motion to block it.
He said there would be “grave disquiet” amongst Labour MPs about the proposal. ”
I didn’t realise this had only just been brought in - FFS what are they on???
235 “When prosperity and relative freedom, particularly for women, is increased, population growth declines.”
Immoveable object of population decline, meet unstoppable force of the growth of Islam…
As well as pledging to start work as soon as possible on a £7.5m scheme in Convent Way, Hounslow has also been selected as a pilot for a Government scheme calling on more than one family to live in a home sharing a kitchen or bathroom. Families are expected to move into the 49 houses and flats in Convent Way,
I READ THE ABOVE WITH HORROR. IF A CONSERVATIVE LED COUNCIL CAN SUPPORT “KREMLIN” STYLE HOUSING, WHAT REAL CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED IF ONE VOTES FOR CAMERON?
238 “FFS what are they on???”
Borrowed time…
Back on topic, the trouble with ‘tactical voting’ or ‘tactical voting unwind’ is knowing whether it is already included within the opinion poll figures, or is additional to them.
238. The government obviously didn’t think ahead: when introducing it they wanted to throw everything down on the table to show they ‘cared’ about the economic circumstances, but hadn’t thought about the long term costs.
240 Well that’s progress - sharing bathrooms and kitchens, perhaps hoteliers around the world have got their accommodation strategies all wrong.
231 - Can’t find that one, but this one amused me
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/08/25/the-bomber-release-the-regional-differences/#comment-1190249
238, it’s rather an epic failure.
As I understand it , we taxpayers pay for these ” poorest people`s ” housing cost . But, if they can find housing cheaper, then they pocket the difference . Why should we sub all these idlers , addicts and pram-faces with extra fag & booze money ?
For once I disagree with Frank Field……..no wonder these people don`t want to find work and give something back to our society.
This comment on a times article published today explains more succinctly than anything else why Labour will always have a rump of support. The writers own prejudice obviously filters out anything other than what he wants to see. Cameron has been praised/criticised for numerous comments in numerous media outlets yet Mr Fuller has not registered any one of them. Tribal blindness is what Labour are now reduced to.
“……..Jeremy Fuller wrote:
I understand our leader has’nt been very forthcoming with leadership skills concerning Lockerbie but how about the rest of them ! What does the Conservative leaders have to say, after all if he wants to lead the country he must have point of view, doesnt he.!!!!
August 28, 2009 10:32 AM BST………..”
245 So good it’s worthwhile pasting it in full:
“283. Sean, showing your true colours again , the discussion does not suit you so its time to dole out the personal insults. You really are a creep of the first order, an insecure pompous little sh*t.
by malcolmG August 25th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Plato 244
Maybe you’re right. Had a terrible thought - imagine sharing a loo with Gordon Brown! Makes for Happy Families?
[239] - Immoveable object of population decline, meet unstoppable force of the growth of Islam…
Well, yes. An Islamic reformation would be handy about now. Any candidates for a Muslim Luther?
SeanT, you know all this creeping I’m doing, that’s p1ssing of some folk. Does it make it more likely that you’ll want to take me to Thailand with you next time you go?
Or has it all been in vain?
249 Cue Martin
Odin, I can’t think what twisted planning numpty thought that shared hygiene facilities was a *good* idea or even a *popular* one.
Kremlin thinking at its most bizarre.
Lockerbie-the truth at last!
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2527906.0.Gaddafi_Lockerbie_is_history_Now_its_time_to_talk_business.php
I am not sure that any end to the technical recession will have a great deal of impact politically.
Darling may do a little hype about his forecasts but he will still have a lot of explaining to do on borrowing and spending.
People do not want accurate forecasts of disaster from the government, they want the disaster avoided.
If there is too much trumpeting about the end of the recession then many people will see it as another sign of government being out of touch. They will not be seeing any benefit, unemployment will keep rising and their houses are still worth less than a year ago.
For a government mired in a reputation for deceit and dithering the reaction will be anger not congratulation.
251 If you really want to learn how to creep up to a blogger - try this handy guide
http://charlottegore.com/2009/07/30/top-10-political-blogging-tricks.html
255 - Ah, I’ve already done 7a, Pick a fight with Tim Ireland.
I see Martin Day’s output is now getting mentioned on Lib Dem Voice.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dem-mps-targeted-by-nazi-spoof-websites-15973.html
251- that’s nothing TSE, according to Malcolm I’m in love with and an acolyte of SeanT.
239 - The decline in influence of the Catholic Church, coupled with contaceptive use and womens education led to fertility falling off a cliff in the seventies and eighties.
Ireland
http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator_detail.cfm?IndicatorID=138&Country=IE
Italy
http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator_detail.cfm?country=IT&indicatorid=138
Spain
http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator_detail.cfm?country=ES&indicatorid=138
Interesting … the ONS say the economy shrank 0.7 not 0.8%. This despite earlier reports about manufacturing investment going into free-fall and ‘experts’ suggesting the decline would be readjusted down not up. .
All of which calls into question the usefulness of statistics. We glibly talk about ‘growth’ but do we really know what it means what it includes?
How strong can the economy be when this same report says “The data confirmed that construction output suffered its biggest annual fall since records began in 1948″ ??
If you are not confused you ought to be. I cannot help but agree with the following statements …
“The further sharp decline in business investment signals serious threats to Britain’s long-term recovery”
“”Unless this trend can be reversed, the long-term productive capacity of the economy will be damaged, and the country will lack the necessary capital stock to sustain a recovery”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6103622/UK-GDP-contracts-less-than-expected.html
256 Did you see Craig Murray’s shameless ‘feel sorry for me = I may give up blogging so write lots of nice things in the comments’ piece?
It felt rather reminiscent of Chicken Yoghurt’s absurd ‘threat’ to do the same if Iain Dale won the Orwell Prize!!!
258 - Well, who isn’t in love with SeanT. If you ask me, I think Malcolm is in the same boat. Let’s face it, you only argue with someone that much, if you’re secretly in love with them.
259: Yet, with the rise in ethinic minorities…the fertility levels are now picking up…
222. “He goes into quite a lot of detail about how you would go about settling on Mars, it’s really interesting. One of the biggest failures of the second half of the twentieth century was giving up on manned space flights.”
The Case For Mars by Robert Zubrin also puts forward a very detailed plan for getting to, exploring and being to colonise mars for less money than we have spent bailing out the bankrupt banks!
261 - No I didn’t, Craig Murray isn’t my cup of tea, when it comes to blogging.
Unfortunately for the UK, for obvious cultural reason, the most fertile couples in the UK, I guess, are islamic. Any number to back that guess, timmy?
265 Not mine either - he whines endlessly - it was very amusing poor-little-me post Norwich North and getting eff-all votes.
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/index.html
267 - Thanks for that, he really does need help.
243
“…but hadn’t thought about the long term costs.”
That’s almost a perfect definition of this government, on so many levels.
267 Oh I’m sorry but I couldn’t resist this groupie comment from his blog
“7% of Norwich North? Maybe not - but I bet you have as much as 1% (who knows? maybe more) of the population popping into your blog from time to time. That has to count for something…
If elections were responsible for reflecting what the majority want, we wouldn’t have had blair (and by proxy Brown) for so long.”
270 - 1% of the population is what, 610,000 people? Really, does anyone have the blog traffic stats for Craig Murray’s blog?
270:1%…so 600k people view his blog..thats some traffic.
257. DevonChap August 28th, 2009 at 11:40 am
LD Buckingling under the pressure!
Fighting for their survival 
They are lightweights and far too thin skinned! 
I notice LD voice failing to mention the lovely Alix Mortimer defacing non-LD political party stuff! Nevermind! That is LD for you say one thing and do another -
Here is Alix, sat to cleggs left or right (Depends how you look at it! Just like how the LD position themselves with every voter)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-CidjkCXCPw/R2kN71DuZcI/AAAAAAAAAWM/sdFhwkvc3Co/s400/Bloggers.jpg
257 They are provoking a reaction - so Martin Day’s works must be art!
272, Unfortunately only 12 of them apparently live in North Norfolk though.
263 - May have a small impact, although how Eastern European immigrants in Ireland form an ethnic minority baffles me a lttle.
A bigger impact in Ireland is the age structure of the population as younger people have not emigrated to find jobs in the same numbers as they did up until the nineties.
I presume you have a reference for relative ethnic minorities in those countries and the impact on fertility rates?
274. Marquee Mark August 28th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Time to turn the other 1000 or so on then!
Guido and Dale added together don’t get that many
274 - Mark my words, Martin Day will win the Turner Prize within 3yrs, anyone know, where I can get some odds.
Sorry for being confused as I haven’t been here for sometime - are those Martin Day’s websites?
278 - TRhey must be really jealous of Craig then!
279. I am just working on a piece called Waffen SS!
35 - There is nothing wrong with voting UKIP as a Tory or Green when generally Labour if you live in a safe Tory or Labour seat and not a marginal and want to make a statement, and voting for them in the Euro elections can produce MPs. Just as voting Green as a Democrat in say Massachusets is perfectly sensible. However, if you are in a marginal it is clearly a wasted vote just as it would be if you are a Democrat in Florida.
276: The guardian clearly think so….at least in this country which is what I was talking about
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/27/population-growth-uk-birth-rate-immigration
The average UK-born woman has 1.84 children – an increase of 10% in just four years – while women living here who were born abroad have about 2.5 children. The ONS figures show that nearly a quarter of babies in England and Wales in 2008 were born to mothers who came from outside the UK, most commonly women from Pakistan, Poland and India
279 - If I were Martin I would get some of my works up on eBay.. it’s well known that politicians who want people to think they can laugh at themselves* like to buy cartoons taking the p*ss out of them. Perhaps the very wealthy Nick Clegg might buy a few.
*It doesn’t fool anyone.
279 More ephemeral yet more biting than anything Banksy has done…
285
266 - You are right.
Bangladeshi immigrants have the highest fertility.
But it is also declining faster than any other group, whereas white British Womens fertility is rising.
Religion will play a factor,as it did in the higher fertility of Irish born immigrants in the 60’s 70’s and 80’s.
However, long term trends tend to show a narrowing in fertility rates between immigrant groups and host populations over time.
260 TrevorsDen the ONS say the economy shrank 0.7 not 0.8%.
Utterly ludicrous announcement by the ONS. How on earth could they possibly measure GDP to an accuracy of one part in a thousand? It’s quite hard to measure even simple, well-defined quantities such as the weight of a bag of sugar to that degree of accuracy, let alone something as vaguely-defined and complex as GDP.
287:However, long term trends tend to show a narrowing in fertility rates between immigrant groups and host populations over time.
Only as that population becomes integrated into the host nation though. New immigrants would have a higher fertility rate than those 2nd generation for example.
One of my hobbies is collecting Dog Shit (Provided i can beat the pesky LD to the pieces
) I store it in Formaldehyde and have a wide range of pieces (No pun intended), which i shine Disco lights through. As the beam swirls round the room producing shadows of shit on the wall, it produces a psychedelic ambiance.
Anyway after watching Close encounters of the third kind i have decided to create a new master piece out of my dog shit collection. It is called Nick Clegg Vs. Shagger Dog and will be a scuplture molded in Nick Cleggs image!
(I really am joking about the above by the way - I do not collect shit or do sculptures with it!) -
288
Richard
Quite.
I think the MOE on a quarterly basis is c 1%..
Since they moved to Swansea the ONS has become a disaster area.
I take it from the discussion that they are the works of Martin Day.
Now to be critical, the photoshopping used is actually very poor quality - I should know, I am crap at photoshopping too.
But to be really critical, their other problem is that they are obviously the work of a dangerously obsessive mind. Satire is great when a) it says something that rings true and b) that the observer shows an element of wry disengagement from the subject. These unfortunately are strangely reminiscent of the cinematic psychopath’s wall of photos in their basement lair.
281- I’ve just visited Lib Dem voice, they seem to have the right attitude to Martins websites, to ignore them. If they kick up a fuss they’ll give Martin a load of publicity and make themselves look daft. Besides I don’t think that what he has done should be taken seriously, if the work was actually quite good, or had some kind of profile it might be offensive, but as it is so childish and low profile their best approach is to just ignore it.
290 So you don’t have any white dog poo in your collection then - SHAME, I haven’t seen any of that since I was about 5yrs old.
re 205 Sean T did you say Java is smaller than England deliberately to wind up Stuart. It isn’t of course by over 8,000 sq km, however, it is smaller than Great Britain.
My contribution to the “new name for UKIP” debate is to change it to GUKIP: Gordon’s Useful **king Idiots Party
292. Bob August 28th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
The rise in UK-born womens fertility is just because we have more second generation immmigrants now, who have more kids than the indigenous population.
This is priceless
http://order-order.com/2009/08/28/churnalists-made-to-look-like-monkeys/#comments
Apparently Recess Monkey has spoofed a load of journalists over the outrage of the Mayor of Baltimore…and Labourlist are pretending it never happened
I wonder whether the policy on marriage-related tax breaks will survive and find itself in the Conservative manifesto?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/aug/28/tories-marriage-tax-breaks-backlash
297 cont “The following correction was due for publication in the Guardian’s Corrections and clarifications column, Saturday 29 August 2009 The mayor of Baltimore did not make the statements attributed to her in the story below – we were caught out by a hoax.”
296 — It makes sense, Socrates.
By the way, do you have any thought about the NJ-Gov race?
And any useful link toward an interesting blog, i.e. with lots of informed comments?
I look daily into the NJ-Gov tag on dailykos (but the discussion level is pretty low, except for the actual Jersey residents, who share their experience), as well as myDD. I’ve seen a discussion two weeks ago on 538.com, but that’s pretty it.
299. Slightly more than a correction or clarification one feels.
297, what is it about Labour and that sort of nonsense? Reminds me of Dawn Butler’s epic fail when Obama said she was the bestest briliantest MP he’d ever met.
302. I think every time something appears to confirm what they’d dearly wish to be true, a little switch flicks in their collective (ooh Stalin!) brains, and they go, to use the correct medical term, effin’ mental.
299 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/28/baltimore-mayor-tory-the-wire-comment
292. Bob August 28th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
What makes me laugh is there are two comments but not on display! Not so Liberal eh? You cannot say you are liberal if you ban things or moan like LDs do particularly well LD go round saying stuff that is not true.
302 Desperation?
291 Re 0.7% from 0.8% - a while back, they had an economist on the Today programme on R4 who said something along the lines of
“Economists use decimal points to show they have a sense of humour…”
303, it’s also a bit like Brown’s crazy proclamations that abolishing the lowest tax rate would have no impact on the poorest or running the Labour investment Vs Tory cuts line. Labour and reality are becoming like a venn diagram with the two circles moving ever more distant and the overlapping area shrinking into nothingness.
296 - incorrect again.
Ethnically White British fertility is rising.
I’m beginning to think you are being deliberately deceptive.
305 I thought I was going blind when I couldn’t see what had been posted.
And yes - VERY liberal as ever.
298 Timothy - Oh dear, the Guardian (like our own tim) doesn’t quite understand what Cameron is proposing.
The idea is to remove the current financial penalty on married couples, which can be quite significant under Labour’s over-complex system.
297 Plato,
More amusing is the way Guido has gone around the places that published it and made comments about ‘churnalism’. He got Liberal Conspiracy into a real strop about it.
304: I felt honorbound to stick the knife in. See how long my comment stays up.
313 - i’d post too, but I’m banned from posting on the guardian websites.
“Ethnically White British fertility is rising.”
That’s counter-intuitive, but interesting. What is your source, if I may ask?
314 Can’t you use an IP mask?
314 - why? Or did the screaming eagles make doves cry?
Don’t be too unkind to MalcomG or he might go away and we would miss a regular dose of amusing SNP bile spewing. And it is too delusional, too self-unaware to lose.
He goes to prove that it is indeed true that it is not difficult to distinguish between a ray of sunshine and an SNP supporter in a funk.
305- while I do agree that Liberal Democrat (like the name of the Liberal Conspiracy blog) is a massive misnomer, I seem to be able to view the comments (all 3 of them) without problems
Interesting in the last few mins the fake hoax story’s shot up to no2 on most viewed….
The power of guido there methinks.
319 What on LibDemVoice ? I can nothing when I click on the ‘comments’ tag.
How far would you trust a statistician - any statistician - on this site who claimed that there was anecdotal evidence that the Government’s car scrappage scheme had helped to boost the car industry.
[311] - I’m terribly sorry, but I’m quite ignorant of what you are talking about?
There is a single parent element to tax credits, which I know has been complained about in the past, but I don’t see what that has to do with marriage.
The only part of tax law that is marriage-related is to do with inheritance tax, I think, and then there is the married couples state pension.
317 - I got banned, for pointing out repeatedly where most of the Guardian writers and editorial staff were educated, when they they espoused policies that would deny parents choice.
Marina sticks in the knife
“And so to the first part of today’s news round-up, which takes us to the pages of OK!, and another paid-for outing for our beloved Garraway-Drapers - in a cover story that is naturally billed by the magazine as WORLD EXCLUSIVE.
We may never know which other international news outlets fought OK! for the chance to tell the story (although there are strong rumours of a late, big-money bid from the Washington Post). What we do get, though, is an introduction by Kate and Dolly to their new baby, a boy called Billy.
Among the details they trade for another wedge of Richard Desmond’s cash are:
- Kate gave birth on a birthing stool
- they lost the baby’s heartbeat for three minutes
- Dolly cut the umbilical cord, then stuck Bob Dylan’s Forever Young on the stereo
Amay-zing!
When I first read this, I instinctively assumed that Dolly regards magazine buy-ups as his main income stream these days. He did, after all, step down from his LabourList website role after The Unpleasantness. But then I recalled that he is of course still a practising psychotherapist, with the spectacularly toothless British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy having gone rather quiet on moves to get him struck off from whatever Mickey Mouse “register” they preside over.
Couldn’t Dolly be contracted by OK! to write a shrink’s column? That way he wouldn’t have to wait till the advent of a new baby to hit payday - much less another of his endlessly fascinating loft extension sagas - and we could be amused by his work every week…”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2009/aug/27/kate-garraway-derek-draper-baby
[322] - What? Why would they rely on “anecdotal evidence”? Surely there would be a clear enough signal if you compared the car industry in this country with that of other countries in a similar economic situation and with/without scrappage schemes. Unless everyone had a scrappage scheme now, I suppose.
309
Oh Dear Tim,risible when one considers all the links you post to bolster your argument(s), only to be shot down by others..
BTW
Platos link about trolling..@255 The first law of trolling is..
#1. Always Invoke The Majority
Wasnt that a word you had difficulty with?
Marina sticks in the knife
“And so to the first part of today’s news round-up, which takes us to the pages of OK!, and another paid-for outing for our beloved Garraway-Drapers - in a cover story that is naturally billed by the magazine as WORLD EXCLUSIVE.
We may never know which other international news outlets fought OK! for the chance to tell the story (although there are strong rumours of a late, big-money bid from the Washington Post). What we do get, though, is an introduction by Kate and Dolly to their new baby, a boy called Billy.
Among the details they trade for another wedge of Richard Desmond’s cash are:
- Kate gave birth on a birthing stool
- they lost the baby’s heartbeat for three minutes
- Dolly cut the umbilical cord, then stuck Bob Dylan’s Forever Young on the stereo
Amay-zing!…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2009/aug/27/kate-garraway-derek-draper-baby
324 - Was posts like this
Editor Alan Rusbridger (Cranleigh); political editor Patrick Wintour (Westminster); leader writer Madeleine Bunting (Queen Mary’s, Yorkshire); policy editor Jonathan Freedland (University College School); columnist Polly Toynbee (Badminton); executive editor Ian Katz (University College School); security affairs editor Richard Norton Taylor (King’s School, Canterbury); arts editor-in-chief Clare Margetson (Marlborough College); literary editor Clare Armitstead (Bedales); public services editor David Brindle (Bablake); city editor Julia Finch (King’s High, Warwick).; environment editor John Vidal (St Bees); fashion editor Jess Cartner-Morley (City of london School for Girls); G3 editor Janine Gibson (Walthamstow Hall); northern editor Martin Wainwright (Shreswbury); and industrial editor David Gow (St Peter’s, York)
324, serves you right. Facts have no place in the leftwing essays of the Guardian.
321- yeah, perhaps I’m not on the Liberal blacklist
324: Any reference to Polly and her tuscan villa is shot down by the ban-gun immediatly.
She and the guardian are a little touchy about that it seems.
328 After having a similar list modded - I stuck it on my blog instead
Hilarious interview with Michael Steele:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112281170
I’d be interested to see firm evidence that white British fertility is rising. I do, however, recall seeing some article that suggested this might be true… Can’t remember where though.
Contrarily, it is certain that French fertility is rising quite significantly. Indeed I think Sarko was crowing about this - until some commentator pointed out that nearly all the rise was due to huge families in French Muslim communities, and then Sarko stopped going on about it quite so exultantly.
Again, I am unable to provide citations to prove my point, so I may be wrong.
I realise this is not my most authoritative post. But hey I’m thriller writing at the same time.
334, incidentally, have you ever considered writing a book about, say, a heroic young Yorkshireman morris dancer who fights evil politicians armed only with a giant space gun, a solar death ray, a trebuchet on the south coast and aided by a fleet of flying, genetically engineered enormo-haddock? It sounds like a bestseller to me. I imagine it would outsell the Koran
Frank Field sticking it into Gordo on R5 an hour or so ago. Saying only a moron can’t see what an absolute disaster the public finances in and the need for sweeping cuts in public expenditure, not the odd £100 million here or there. Otherwise, currency will be screwed, people won’t borrow etc etc.
320
I could swear that ‘Pravda’ fell for the hoax, also.
I remember ‘the Mayor of Baltimore’ mentioned this a.m.
331 - Well, if you missed it the first time around
http://order-order.com/2008/05/02/richard-littlejohn-bitch-slaps-polly/
I believe the real mayor of Baltimore maybe be more concerned about some serious charges against her (court date now in a few months),
Baltimore mayor charged with corruption in 12-count indictment
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2009/01/baltimore-mayor.html
332 - Plato, I like you even more
Sky are on the case http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:e9ba4e45-a1d1-4ae7-bfab-bb87d7ab402b
The Indy was duped too - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mayor-of-baltimore-accuses-grayling-of-dishonouring-city-1778388.html
I’d bet that Paris will host a majority of muslims in 2050.
Denmark news: ‘Court to decide on Lisbon Treaty’
The Eastern High Court is to hear arguments today on whether a case brought by 38 Danes against the prime and foreign ministers for failing to send the EU’s Lisbon Treaty to referendum, is at all relevant.
http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/article777261.ece
338, even better was Starkey shredding Labour: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em1sYyg5JyU
SeanT,
Apparently, it is increasing: http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=93139
345 - They should get Starkey to replace Dimbleby
347, they should certainly have more Starkeys and fewer Toynbees.
341/342 The biggest clue is of course in the website source as follows
OK, so I’m just having a bit of fun at Chris Grayling’s expense.
Sitting in the office on a hot August afternoon, I was fantasising
that I was Mayor of Baltimore and how annoyed I would be.
I hope you very quickly picked up that this was a spoof.
Didn’t mean to break any laws or ethical mores – please don’t
extradite me if I have unwittingly done so. Hope you appreciate the
humour, Alex Hilton, alexhilton@gmail.com – 07985 384 859
Just right click on the website and vie page source!
[334] - seanT. There aren’t definitive stats, but it’s something that people are starting to look at and to make estimates. There’s an interesting paper you can find using google, which does show a small increase in “white british” fertility since about 2000.
I won’t link to it because it’s due to be presented at a conference on October 2nd, and it says it is a “draft paper not to be cited without permission”.
My life’s work is complete - knew I’d seen this somewhere on the BBC website
The Mayor of Baltimore is the first question in this week’s quiz!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8226143.stm
YES!
[350] - Socrates linked to the one I saw..
Baltimore’s mayor says Tory claims likening UK crime spots to The Wire is like “boasting that Baltimore has a per capita homicide rate a fraction of that in the popular UK television show ________.”
CORRECT!
It’s Midsomer Murders. Sheila Dixon, Baltimore’s Mayor, used the ITV show as she attacked shadow home secretary Chris Grayling for suggesting parts of Liverpool, Manchester and London were like scenes from The Wire.
There is nothing like a good hoax.
315 - Phillippe.
White British fertility began to rise in 2002 and is still on an upward trend.
Interestingly it is now higher than for women in the UK of an ethnic Indian background, probably reflecting higher educational and economic achievement than the indigenous population.
There is still a higher birthrate amongst muslim Indian women of a muslim background than those of Sikh or Hindu background.
The rate for Muslim Indian women has been in decline and is now almost the same as for white British Women.
I’ll post the links when I get in.
But take Slackbladders claims with a pinch of salt.
Anyone ahoe believes Irelands population projections and increased fertility are as a result of ethnic minorities is not to be taken seriously.
So, we’ve ascertained yet again that there are some really stupid and lazy journalists. I can see why the mainstream media aren’t making much of this, that’s hardly news.
I have just seen post 6,LOL,all praise to the great martin day,the one man destroyer of the lib dems.
334 - The theory behind rising White British fertility is fourfold.
1.Increased maternity leave.
2.Increased awareness of consequences of delayed pregnancy.
3.Child tax credits
4.Help with nursery fees.
Cheap political point.
Tory policies on these issues in the 80s and nineties encouraged immigration rather than White British reproduction.
357
You mean Labour’s theory. Missed off the most important: post-feminism.
The Times on Hannan:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6812848.ece
357: People are drinking more….
Works for me.
358 - Hardly a labour theory.
If you make something cheaper,demand for it will rise.
Of course if Cameron cuts child credits he’ll be encouraging immigration down the line.
Thanks tim. Very interesting.
I was under the impression however that encouraging “immigration rather than White British reproduction” was Labour policy, not Tory.
In fact, I thought that wild, virtually uncontrolled islamic immigration was one of the main reason Labour is now so unpopular. That’s why, anyway, I bet heavily on Boris winning against Islamic Red Ken last year…
355. Hopefully they will return to being a bit more Journalist and a bit less PR/News Release editors, though I doubt it
I see from the Sky blog that even the Baltimore Sun was hoaxed - very successful hoax by Mr Hilton
Thanks to LD voice and the County publication they have increased my site hits so as a thank you I unvail my new master piece called
Waffen SS!
http://tinyurl.com/ku2fmz
362 - “encouraging “immigration rather than White British reproduction” was Labour policy, not Tory”
It’s not anybody’s policy. Tim is in a cranky, trolling mood today. It’s best to ignore him when he’s in these moods.
362 - Well I’m glad I’ve helped you out then.
As you can see Labours interventionist pro children policies have helped to increase white British fertility, whereas the laissez faire Conservative stance coincided with a reduction.
364 Excellent!!
363 - The really stupid thing about the story is that when I first read it, my immediate reaction was: “surely they don’t have Midsomer Murders in Baltimore?”. I didn’t think much more about it because it was such a stupid story and moved onto the more interesting attempt by the Telegraph to confect a story that Nessie had been spotted on Google Earth.
I take my hat off to Alex Hilton though, who has unwittingly exposed just how useless journalists are.
361 “If you make something cheaper, demand for it will rise.”
Really? How much do you think I would have to cut the price of “smiling Gordon Brown Christmas cards” to attract a single buyer?
My prediction would be their value for recycling…
364 Is this the first time in the history of ever that there has been the coming together of the Waffen SS and the Reliant Robin?
Rubbish tim
In the social democratic countries of europe, child payments have been provided for decades, whilst birth rates collapsed. Tis a cultural thing. Babies weren’t cool, they’re getting cooler (as long as it’s only a couple of them). Now if you said to people here’s 10k if you have a baby, that might make a difference. As might free creche facilities.
The idea someone in a above average pay would have a baby because they might get a means tested 30 quid a week is laughable.
Interesting take on the forthcoming swine-flu vaccination program in Australia:
The federal government’s plan to immunise the population against swine flu is under threat because insurers may not cover doctors who administer the injections.
Insurers say inadequate testing and the possibility of spreading infections means there is too high a risk that patients will sue, Fairfax newspapers report.
The government has refused to underwrite doctors’ liability for the vaccinations.
http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=366972
Don’t know if the same situation arises here, or indeed if there are implications for personal life/health insurance?
On the same subject, I see pudits in the USA suggesting a 2 dose vaccine with 3 weeks inbetween the vaccinations and a further 2 weeks to get to full immunity, so it looks like we can add 5 weeks to whatever our current planning estimates are.
343: Is that Paris Hilton?
366. lol - Labour makes women more *FERTILE*.
Must be that magic dust John Prescott keeps sprinkling about..
364,this will really get the illiberals shouting from the roof tops.
370. Its the LD Storm Trooper element where at the crack of Dawn, they sneak into peoples back passages and leave a leaflet as there calling card!
The relient Robin is the Trogen Horse!
Plato August 28th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
366, which is not to Labour’s credit. It is well known that fertility decreases with increasing prosperity, over quite a large range. Thus the increase in white British fertility is clear evidence that Labour have impoverished the nation.
At least, it would be, if it weren’t for various complicating factors. Working out what these statistics really mean for the state of the country is no trivial exercise, and even experts may disagree.
I’ve just ordered a t shirt from Red Molotov, it’s khaki with Margaret Thatchers face on, taking the mick out of the che shirts
370- certainly a match made in hell
This story is disturbing for so many reasons. GMP take a bow, once again
Red faces as bogus interpreter manages to infiltrate counter-terrorism unit
Counter-terrorism officers unwittingly used a bogus interpreter to translate audio tapes seized in a raid, it emerged today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6104226/Red-faces-as-bogus-interpreter-manages-to-infiltrate-counter-terrorism-unit.html
“The number of Israelis who see US President Barack Obama’s policies as pro-Israel has fallen to four percent, according to a Smith Research poll taken this week on behalf of The Jerusalem Post.”
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1251145138121
Whatever Obama’s true intentions may be in attempting to broker some kind of progress in the Middle East, it’s tough to see how he can get far if the Israeli public has no faith in him. Perhaps Israel can simply be browbeaten into accepting some sort of compromise with the threat of abandonment being the alternative, but Obama’s powers of persuasion may not extend far beyond that. On the other hand, what is to stop Israel’s neighbors from moving the goalposts as they perceive Israel’s position to be undermined by its biggest ally?
375. johnno August 28th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
357 You’re correct that there has been a rise in white British fertility since 2003. But, it’s only returned to the level of the period 1980 to 1993, when the Conservatives were pursuing the sorts of policies that you think reduced fertility rates and increased immigration. And during that period, levels of immigration were far lower than they were after 1997. Immigration rose sharply after that date due to Labour’s policy changes.
In fact, when the Conservatives came to power, fertility rates rebounded sharply, compared to the very low levels of the mid Seventies.
381 - Martin, if I can make a suggestion for healthy living, may I suggest that you cut orange squash and all other sources of tartrazine out of your diet?
380
It’s so stupid. Obama isn’t doing anything that is “anti-Israel”. The Republicans have short memories - Bush Sr. stopped money going to Israel over the settlement issues. All Obama has done so far is, correctly, claim that the settlements have to stop.
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/washington-diarist-1?id=e37d2372-a615-43e7-996e-f45220fb95c2
This is excellent from Leon Weiseltier.
382: So in other words….tim’s talking donkey balls.
371 - Now if you said to people here’s 10k if you have a baby, that might make a difference.
Extra Months Maternity Leave = £1200.
Extra Statutory Maternity Pay = £2000
Pre School Nursery Assistance = £2500
Nursery Vouchers Tax Relief = £2500
Child Tax Credit at £30 Per Week £25000
Total = £33,200.
385 - Still waiting for you to back up your ethnic minority theories.
Not going to happen is it?
384- Tell that to the 96% of Israelis who don’t agree with you. I’m highlighting a reality that you apparently don’t want to accept.
381,martin, have you got any of your illiberal designs posted on lib dem voice.
383
Leave off.
Tizer’s never been the same…
389. johnno August 28th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
No but they have linked to my blogs so i am just updating the pages they link too!
387: Look up the post…the guardian backed what I said..
you chose to make it about eastern europeans and other countries…which I didn’t.
@ 288 (Richard): It’s quite hard to measure even simple, well-defined quantities such as the weight of a bag of sugar to that degree of accuracy, let alone something as vaguely-defined and complex as GDP.
Richard,
They are probably using the same measuring method as the global warming Chicken Littles. You know, those “scientists” who can’t tell you what the price of oil will be in 100 years’ time, but who nonetheless think that even without knowing this, they can predict the average global temperature to within a degree or so.
“I’m highlighting a reality that you apparently don’t want to accept.”
I accept the figures in that poll, but they are, simply, mistaken as to the actual reality of the situation.
“You know, those “scientists” who can’t tell you what the price of oil will be in 100 years’ time, but who nonetheless think that even without knowing this, they can predict the average global temperature to within a degree or so.”
This is an apple.
This is an orange.
You are a plum.
:sigh:
tim dear. That extra maternity leave comes at the expense of lost earnings. The nursery assistance is just assistance. Do you even know how much it costs to send a baby to nursery? Everyone I know with toddlers is counting the days till they can send them to primary school for nothing.
And the child tax number of 25k is over 18 years which is meaningless. Especially as it is means tested, so any increase in income comes at the loss of tax credits (the povery trap). When I said 10k, I meant 10k in your pocket, the day the baby is born, no questions asked.
I doubt anyone wants people having children just for the money, so the one big change that is likely to have a difference is FREE creche facilities for all, non-means tested. Even this will make no difference if women, particularly middle-class women, suddenly decide in large numbers that babies are yukkie again.
But anyway, part of Labour’s problem is they develop these logical fallacies, then find it very hard to junk them. Anything for headline.
391,we not worthy,oh great one,keep it up bud.
382 - I headlined it Cheap political point Sean,so I wasn’t 100% serious.
I wasn’t aware of stats for fertility rates by ethnic groups in the early 80,s yet you’ve made a claim based on it.
Where did you get your figures?
396 - Yes I know very well .
And the total assistance for a child before it goes to school, over and above what it was in the nineties is about £12k
397. johnno August 28th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
368. Some PB.com trivia for you: I used to go to school with Alex Hilton.
396 - Everyone I know with toddlers is counting the days till they can send them to primary school for nothing.
Pleased to hear your friends are all using state primary schools though.
Great strides made in that sector, and I’m pleased you friends recognise the unnecessary expenditure on a prep school.
Israel = FULL OF WIN
Arab Hoards = LOL
388. 94% of Israelis think Obama is anti-Israel? Source please…
Go on then David. Fill us in. Without knowing what the price of oil is over the next 100 years,
- how much will be used over the next 100 years?
- what emissions will result?
- what effect will this have on overall atmospheric GHG? and hence
- what will the temperature be in 100 years’ time?
Take as many screens as you want.
You’re allowed one ‘tick’ accuracy - so, the price within 1 cent, emission within 1,000 tonnes, atmospheric CO2 within 1,000ppm and the temperature within 1 degree.
If that’s too hard, please answer in respect of next Tuesday fortnight. It’s not too late to get a Brent futures position on.
Or you could just head back over to cbeebies.com, which incidentally will probably raise the average IQ in both places.
382 - The final conclusive proof to what we already knew in our loins: life’s better under the Conservatives.
403.
20-odd Arab countries aggregate area - 16,000,000 square kms.
Compare with Russia - 17,000,000 square kms.
Israel - 20,000 square kms.
404. Just seen your link higher up. Only 4% seeing him as pro-Israel doesn’t make 96% see him as anti-Israel. The best situation is everyone seeing him as a neutral arbitrator. The Israelis seeing the Americans as backing them up has been part of the reason for their at-times bellicose behaviour.
This movement to an anti-Obama is that idiot Netanyahu whipping up a victimisation mentality, when Israel is the country engaging in colonialism in the West Bank.
405. Oh dear. You may want to pick your toys up.
And then think again about comparing apples and oranges.
393. “Scientists” in inverted commas? Tou mean like THE ROYAL ACADEMY?
408. And the Arabs never engaged in colonialism?
tim you know where to get the figs. They’re in your database. But just for you, a nursery in north southwark will cost 8-12k a year minimum. Most go for private carers and pay cash
I know perhaps one person who could afford anything other than public schools and he’s a trader. Even he would struggle to pay the fees at Dulwich college. Oh and I don’t know many people who benefit from labour’s few quid here and there either, they are all lost between the rich and the poor.
Despite that, they all seem to be having kids, it’s cool you know.
Ezio, you are so gay. Go love yourself.
405. You might want to get off your high horse and start reading about monetary neutrality…
411. I don’t see how that is relevant, unless you have a black and white “good guy-bad guy” view of the world.
408. And the Arabs never engaged in colonialism?
It’s not a zero sum game. Both sides can be wrong.
406- no my friend, life is better under a Conservative!
398 This graph shows total fertility rates from the 1960s onwards; you’ll see a sharp drop from 1970 to 1977, followed by a sharp rise into the early eighties; then stability, followed by a decline between 1993 and 2003.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=369
As far as I know, birth statistics by ethnic group aren’t kept (academics make estimates) - only details of the country of birth of the mother. Births to foreign mothers ranged from 10-15% of the total between 1961 and 1997, but have now risen to 24% of the total.
Overall, the number of births to British born mothers is 9,000 lower than in 1998, which in turn comes after several years of decline, from 1993.
418 - SF
That can’t be right, tim assures us that if you promise someone a few quid they’ll start humping for victory.
Poor Mike’s going to have a fit, when he gets a vodafone signal, and sees us talking about Nazis, Israel, etc
419
Isn’t that prostitution?
419 ASOD. LOL Vote Labour = More bucks for your bang!
471 Bob. “…. life is better under a Conservative!”
Wasn’t that John Major’s 1992 Election slogan ??
“tim assures us that if you promise someone a few quid they’ll start humping for victory.”
Tim is Silvio Berlusconi, and I claim my 5 quid…..
420. Is Israel a forbidden topic too?
420
Talking about Nazis is better than revealing to Guardianistas that their writers are hypocrites:-)
420 - Yep, can’t be long before Rod Nazeee from Crosbeee emerges to defend the honour of the Waffen SS. He’d approve of Martin’s latest…
423- well it worked with Edwina, why not the country?
[405] - You appear to not know much about climate science, and its predictions.
- how much will be used over the next 100 years?
- what emissions will result?
- what effect will this have on overall atmospheric GHG? and hence
- what will the temperature be in 100 years’ time?
If you look at the IPCC report you will find that they cheerfully admit to not knowing how much GHGs will be emitted over the next 100 years. Apart from anything else, this is a matter of our choice, and in the absence of Hari Seldon’s psycho-history… [please see the Foundation novels by Isaac Asimov]
Consequently they use a number of different scenarios, which can broadly be broken down into a number of categories: business-as-usual; fewer emissions than BAU; etc. Helpfully this enables us to see the effect of our possible choices.
Finally, scientists don’t claim to know the climate sensitivity to doubling CO2 to better than the range 2-4 degrees, and some would put it [broadly speaking the 90% confidence interval] wider than that.
425 - No it’s not, However talking about the Israel in the context of the hol-a-ca-ust is a topic that sadly brings out some unfortunate comments.
Unfortunately we don’t have statistics for the number of secretaries impregnated on the Conservatives assuming office in 1979.
A straw poll suggests a significant increase
430: Now you’ve gone and done it….Cue Rod…..
431 - Lucky for the stats the John Prescott fires blanks.
And new thread up
431 - Lucky for the stats the John Prescott fires blanks.
And new thread up
This is amusing, but there’s a NEW THREAD.
Tim, you’re assuming all secretaries are female. Not very pc.
6.
“Martin Day has become FAMOUS”
Infamous, perhaps, though that would be a damaging boost to his ego. No doubt when his much (self)-lauded fecal daubings are discovered (see previous threads passim) the universe will recognise them as a metaphor for his mind.
Mike, you are spot on in the article that leads this thread. Camerons success so far and the key to winning, is to sit solidly right bang in the middle appealing to the huge numbers of small ‘c’ soft Tory voters (who voted in people like Major and Blair). However the challenge is to do this while also having some distinct policies that enthuse those middle Britain people. It can be done, the notion is not mutually exclusive, its about practical policies that are not driven by pure ideology and don’t leave decent people behind in society.
It can be done, the notion is not mutually exclusive, its about practical policies that are not driven by pure ideology and don’t leave decent people behind in society.
Yes of course it CAN be done. It could have always have been done. The big question is. Why has it not EVER been done? Or. Why have things generally ended up this way, when this is precisely where absolutely none of our elected politicial leaders have ever claimed they wish to take us?
The British people have NEVER voted for booms or busts. They have always voted for STABILITY. Stability being what they have ALWAYS been prommised. This since Walpole. The debate has only ever been between different forms of practical stablity, and the most stable way of achieving our essential progress towards a beter future for ourselves and our fellow human beings.
Booms and busts are highly conspired revolutionary acts. One could very well say, MARXIST SOCIALIST ones. Especially as they have always been acts of conspiracy at the highest of levels. Being in control at times of instability is the key to making and keeping almost infinite fortunes. On the other hand being poorish, therefore powerless, therefore completely out of control, at times of instability, is a highly efficent way of ending up broke, seriously in debt, very hungry, or indeed extremely dead. Whatever happens generally a lot poorer then you otherwise would have been, in all respects.