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Labour back to the mid-20s with YouGov

August 31st, 2009


CON 42 (nc) LAB 26 (-2) LD 18 (nc)

So all the August polls are in the same territory

Whether or not there’s a big effort at the Daily Telegraph to get us to buy printed copies of their paper I do not know but their August YouGov poll is now out and is not online.

The figures are as above with the changes on the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the last from the pollster – in mid-August. Then a 28% Labour share was the biggest from any of the firms and might have been giving Brown Central some extra hope.

Well although the latest changes are well in line with the margin of error the 2 point slip be a disappointment to them while being an extra boost for the Tories. This is how the latest polls from all the major firms are lining up:-

YouGov – CON 42: LAB 26: LD 18

MORI – CON 43: LAB 26: LD 17

ICM – CON 41: LAB 25: LD 19

ComRes – CON 41: LAB 24: LD 18

All three main parties are within a very narrow range with each of the surveys and the differences are all within the margin of error. There hasn’t been a Populus poll this month and we might be seeing another ComRes poll tonight.

A factor in all the polls is that the total for “others” has not fallen back as sharply as many, including me, were predicting after the June 4th Euro Elections. Will support for these parties – UKIP, the Greens and the BNP – decline as we get closer to polling day? If not what will the impact be?

Given what ICM boss, Nick Sparrow, was saying here last week about August polls ahead of general elections then could these shares be a reflection of the actual result?

Mike Smithson