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Month: August 2009

Should Cameron take a different line on Afghanistan?

Should Cameron take a different line on Afghanistan?

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Could his support for the war alienate centre-ground voters? One of the big polling trends of the summer has been the growing concern about Britain’s continuing role in Afghanistan. The view that we should not be there at all is becoming increasingly popular and the question arises over whether Cameron is right to go on supporting the UK’s involvement. So far he has been totally in favour – the main dividing line has been over issues like whether the country’s…

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Will the Irish Lisbon referendum be closer than we think?

Will the Irish Lisbon referendum be closer than we think?

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Could October 2nd produce another shock? At the end of last week the Dublin bookmaker, Paddy Power was reported as saying that sentiment on the betting markets over the Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum had moved more towards the “No” camp. Yes is still the firm favourite but there has not been a poll since June and that suggested that more than 54% would vote that way. But it’s being recalled that “Yes” was leading ahead of the last Lisbon referendum…

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Could Cameron win a victory of 1997 proportions?

Could Cameron win a victory of 1997 proportions?

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Has Labour’s time run out? Nick Sparrow, boss of ICM, has sent me an email in response to recent comments suggesting that August polling is somehow unreliable. He makes a strong case that this isn’t correct by looking at his polls in the August ahead of the past three general elections and what actually happened. Nick notes that comparing Guardian ICM polls for the August before a general election with the result you get:- August 1996 poll suggested that Labour…

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Can Brown go on not giving a view?

Can Brown go on not giving a view?

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SkyNews Is this response going to suffice? As anybody who has followed PB threads in recent days there are sharp divisions over the Scottish government’s decision to release to Lockerbie bomber. One person who has yet to give a view is Gordon Brown and today at a press conference he continued with that line. Clearly there are a whole lot of issues involved – relations with the US and the leadership in Libya to name just two – and as…

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The bomber release – the regional differences

The bomber release – the regional differences

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AngusReid Are Londoners really the most compassionate? While we are waiting for the August MORI poll I thought PBers might like to look at another survey on the release of the Lockerbie bomber – but this time with regional differences. The pollster, Angus-Reid, is well known internationally but I think that this is the first political survey it has published in the UK. It is seeking to be a member of the British Polling Council. I don’t think we can…

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What if the UK’s “cash card” didn’t work any more?

What if the UK’s “cash card” didn’t work any more?

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What’s the politics if the UK lost its AAA credit rating? While the Lockerbie release story has been dominating the news a more bread and butter issue has received scant coverage yet has the potential to have an even bigger impact on the election campaign. The government’s borrowing figures for July were much worse than expected – and needless to say, expectations weren’t healthy to start with. The scale of the battering that the public finances have taken in the…

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Labour’s poll gloom continues

Labour’s poll gloom continues

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Guardian online Is there anything that Brown Central can do? The August ICM poll for the Guardian is out and like all other polls reporting this month it is simply more of the same. Labour in the doldrums in the 20s with the Tories in the 40s. The changes in the Guardian’s graphic, above, are with the last poll in the paper in July. Compared with the Sunday Mirror ICM poll the weekend before last the changes were CON -2…

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The Lockerbie release – the debate goes on…

The Lockerbie release – the debate goes on…

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Could we get another poll tonight? I’m just off out for a few hours and we need a new thread. There is a possibility that we might see one or two polls this evening. I know that Ipsos-MORI was carrying out fieldwork during the weekend and the Guardian’s ICM survey usually comes out on this Monday each month. Meanwhile the argument over the Lockerbie release continues and Gordon Brown has invited the victorious England cricket team to Number 10. I…

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