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No respite for Gordon from ICM

September 21st, 2009


CON 43 (+2) LAB 26 (+1) LD 19 (nc)

And the “others” total drop to just 12%

The September ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows the Tories up a couple of points with Labour up one – all within the margin of error.

So the September polling is following August and we are seeing very little change. Perhaps the significant move is the decreasing share for “other” parties which has been at a high level since the Euro elections in June.

The 17% Tory lead is the second highest ever in the Guardian series of polls which began in 1984. Less than half those who told ICM that they voted Labour in 2005 plan to do so again

So we go into the Labour conference next week with a pretty solid range of different surveys all pointing to the same general election outcome.

It’s hard to point to any glimmer’s of hope for the party and it’s hard to argue other than the Tories are set to win big.

The fieldwork ended last night so quite a large proportion of those polled would have seen some of the news from the Lib Dem conference. The party will be disapppointed to be still on 19% from the pollster that usually give them the best figures.

Mike Smithson