Are the Lib Dems throwing away their USP?
September 24th, 2009
Should Clegg’s troops should have more distinctiveness?
The old Liberal Party nearly went out of existence in the 1950s but in the years that followed staged a recovery based round a distinctive localism, a sense of being outside the establishment and the caricature of a politician and of them being the ‘nice’ party.
-
If you have no chance of power nationally, you have to offer the electorate something else. A ‘more pleasant and more local’ way of doing politics was the Liberals answer and it served them well, especially in by-elections.
Then in the 1980s the addition of the SDP, brought it votes in areas it had been dormant in for years, as well as producing a sizable centrist grouping set against the Thatcherite Tories and the left-lurching Labour Party. That combined with steady work on the ground enabled the Alliance to consistently pick up well over 20% in polls and elections.
All that is now in danger. The other parties have recognised the importance of doing the local bit, and are putting the squeeze on the Lib Dems claim to the centre. Now their ‘nice’ image is in danger.
Thus they have become neither distinctive nor positive. With ten times more MP’s than in the 1950s and a huge base of councillors they’re definitely an establishment party again. That surely makes being ‘nice’ all the more important?
The momentum of past successes should keep the Lib Dem machine going to some extent. Their MP’s tend to have a strong local base - they had to have to win in the first place - and are unlikely to suffer much (if any) net negative tactical voting. Many incumbents also have the advantage of having squeezed the third party almost out of the game.
Even so, the Liberals nearly disappeared because they lost their purpose and recovered when they were able to portray a new one. The choice then was distinctiveness or death. Today’s Lib Dems are in a much healthier position than half a century ago but the same decay could set in should the point of their existence again become unclear. Third parties trying to sound like governments end up sounding deluded (because no-one expects them to win) and / or irrelevant (because the bigger parties are likely to be saying something similar).
The Lib Dems usually pick up vote share during the election campaign due to a higher profile. Given their performance in Bournemouth this week, that’s much less likely in 2010.
David Herdson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes. The attacks on Cameron, Osborne and Pickles were too personal and nasty to work without them chiming with public opinion (which they didn’t).
Yes
Has anybody heard any rumours as to what this political book that is coming out overnight is about?
527 FPT - if it’s any consolation, I adored the duck island.
They’ll get their mojo back soon by appeasing the Taliban.
L/Dems minus 30 seats +- after the GE.
But they deserve to lose more.
Yes, the Lib Dems need more distinctiveness. Given where they are now, I suggest they urgently remarket themselves as the peace party (they’re well on the way already). Campaign for a withdrawal from Afghanistan, scrap trident, look for major savings in defence, argue for Britain to rethink its role in the world.
LibDems - what IS the point? What do 1 in 5 voters see in them today?
Genuinely perplexed….
8 - They can be more distinctive by turning into the Green party?
FPT
Much as I am disinclined to defend Tim
I believe his description of Cheadle or Heaton as part of Cheshire refers to its location in the historic county of Cheshire not the smaller modern one.
All fair points, David. However, they should be able to recover their position if, as is likely, Labour turn in on themselves after the GE.
But not, I suspect, under Clegg.
I wonder if The Big Story will break before they record QT tonight?
Hapless Harriet, meet YouTube Posterity…
One thing to consider is that the Lib Dems USP will be drowned out by the Tories slogan of
“Vote Yellow, Get Brown”
10 - They can dispense with the militant veganism and the destruction of the British economy. But otherwise, pretty much, yes. They could have the enormous satisfaction of doing to a smaller party what is routinely done to them by the larger two parties.
FPT 472 Martin, I think the plan until VERY recently was for the October election - pretty much regardless of the polls. Labour are in a holding pattern of dreadfulness until whenever the election is called. However, they are going to have a campaign that scares the voters sh*tless about what the Tories will do. The idea was hang on, deny deny deny that there would be cuts - or at least, never get engaged in details.
The Grid was developed, with Gordon going to Afghanistan and the UN and G20 and collecting the “Bestest Man That Ever Lived” Award. Proper Budgets would be held back - the true horror of the economy would be denied. Tough it out. Deny. Lie. Obfuscate.
But then Osborne played the Budget documents card. Total tizz at the heart of Labour. Then Baroness Scotland had a PR calamity. She refused to resign. But her PPS did. Then Obama refused to play ball and lend Gordon the “Statesman” gravitas that would be played endlessly on the party political broadcasts. And the LibDems couldn’t deliver their end as their “kick a Tory” Conference fell to bits.
And now - they are going to have to get on with at least preparing cuts. Labour cuts. Soft, fluffy, cuddly cuts. Not like heartless hard-edged Tory cuts. ANd tax rises. VAT. NI. 50% band. God knows what else. And unemployment will hit 3 million on their watch. ANd interest rates - when wil they start to rise - the longer they leave it, the nearer to inevitable it becomes. And the recession may return as a double dip before they can get to the polls. Gordon’s “saved the world” schtick will seem very hollow. They will have nothing to sell. Nothing.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. But in truth, Labour was ALWAYS going to turn to dust. Their business model is broken. Bankrupt. And Britain with it.
13 The QT recording probably starts in the next hour. Telegraph expense revelations normally broke around 10 PM. Is Brown making any important speeches in the next few of hours?
13 Think that’s a certainty - the big stories seem to break just before the 9/10pm news broadcasts.
Small chance they’ll keep it until the 0100 editions…
Two random comments.
1.I think everyone has misunderstood the INTENT of the LD grandees attacks on the Conservatives rather than on Labour.
However misguided, the result will surely be that they have delivered an elec toral attack on Labour, not the Conservatives.
They have tried to position themselves to the Left of Labour.This will hurt them when they are heads-up against the Tories but may have some appeal to Labour Luvvies and Old Labour.
2. The emerging profile of UKIP,GREENS and to a far lesser extent the BNP and RESPECT has deprived the Lib Dems of their novelty status which they have so much enjoyed at local and national level.
They are no longer the automatic repository for the ‘disillusioned with yah-boo-sucks politics’ vote.
16 - I don’t think there’s ever been a plan for an October election.
Indeed part of Mandelson appeal to keep Brown for now was based around not having an autumn election.
Re the LibDems, I can’t understand why they have this cultural cringe to all things EU.
I can see why they were pro EU up to the 1990s - free trade, international cooperation, brotherhood of man stuff but why they continue to do so now that is clearly apparant that it is anti-democratic, bureaucratic, corrupt and incompetant.
The LibDems look like they are part of the political establishment and indeed that is what they are. I can see increasing numbers of their voters going to the new minor parties.
FPT
Much as I am disinclined to defend Tim I believe his description of Cheadle or Heaton as part of Cheshire refers to its location in the historic county of Cheshire not the smaller modern one.
by another richard September 24th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
richard I totally agree with you and I am perfectly aware that is what he meant. That however, is not the point. The point is that tim is perfectly happy to call people liars when they have made similar errors in a statement. He then continues to repeat that they are liars until the whole thread becomes derailed which was the original reason for calling them liars. I only did it to highlight to tim what a d1ck it makes him look when he does it.
FPT, tim you better tell the people at Old Trafford they are in Lancashire, they need to change their address,
Old Trafford Location Address: Lancashire County Cricket Club, Talbot Road, Old Trafford, Manchester M16 0PX.
Does anyone know what time the massive story is going to break?
If it’s done in traditional ‘expenses’ style, it’ll be around 9:45 on Sky followed by BBC and ITN at 10.
Oh dear http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8273616.stm
“A Cabinet minister has been accused of wasting millions of pounds of public money by sanctioning a research project that could not evaluate anything.
As a Home Office minister in 2002, the Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth signed off a £6m evaluation of a drugs prevention programme in schools.
The report’s findings, published on a BBC blog earlier this month, said it was unable to draw “any conclusions”.
It has now emerged Mr Ainsworth was warned of such an outcome.
The results of the evaluation, named “Blueprint”, concluded its own design “was not sufficiently robust to allow an evaluation of impact and outcomes”.”
15- That is an interesting idea, but it isn’t apparent who will cannabalize whom. It seems the rise of parties like the Greens, the BNP, and other policy-specific parties risks making the Lib Dems the odd man out, being neither one of the two major national parties nor a third party with a readily identifiable identity. A party like the Lib Dems could easily wither away from these effects.
22 - Liverpool Football Club is in Lancashire.
19. URW
“They have tried to position themselves to the Left of Labour.This will hurt them when they are heads-up against the Tories but may have some appeal to Labour Luvvies and Old Labour.”
Except to make gains from Labour they also need tactical voting from Conservative supporters.
If Clegg doesn’t know this then he’s clearly not studied how the LibDems won control of Sheffield council.
Huge move to the Tories tonight on SPIN - now at 360-365. Nice paper profit of £400 into the bargain! Lab 200-205, Lib Dem 48-51 - can’t remember but doesn’t seem to be much of a move there, seems to be a move from Other to Tory.
Leads me to one of two conclusions (assuming SPIN know best) - either (1) there is a bad poll out shortly or (2) there is bad news out for Labour out shortly. I would suggest (2) seems the most likely as it is Thursday, usually a dead night for polls - so perhaps the ten o’clock news will reveal.
Interesting.
25, UKIP’s a bigger threat. UKIP came second in the euros and has a highish profile frontman (although it has problems as well). The Greens are fringe republicans. The BNP will hopefully lose their MEPs next time round.
Nick Clegg = Doomed…DOOMED to defeat by Martin Day in a Celebrity Boxing Match sometime in 2011!!
Clegg is an egg!
Ezio is the bestzio!
22 - And here’s your genuine liar and bet welcher at 28.
Has Mandy become Chancellor too?
Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, has delivered a blow to retailers by ruling out a delay to the planned increase in VAT due at the end of this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/6226961/Lord-Mandelson-rules-out-VAT-reprieve.html
If this story is as big as rumours have it to be, is it not strange that B Brogan is not ramping it on his blog. I would have thought that would be the place to be placing teasers?
29 That would be nice. Alas much will depend on circumtances in 5 years and worse the BNP would have had access to 5 years worth funding and probably publicity that they could only ever have dreamt of in the past. With their foot in the door it maybe mighty hard prising it out again.
Germany
“more than one-quarter of the 62-million-strong electorate reportedly still undecided, ”
Wow!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090924/wl_afp/germanyvote
Does this mean that an upset is plausible?
On-topic: Two options seems to me: small “liberal” party, occassionally getting bigger if Tories are very unpopular but always with a limited shelf life as they were never going to permanently replace Tories as the centre-right party, or large social democrat type party competing for dominance with Labour.
As seen with the alliance the second option has a much higher chance of flipping the LDs into 2nd spot. It doesn’t seem like they’re capable of making the transition from one to the other in time for the election though.
SeanT is not as good a poster on PB as Ezio.
This, friends and comrades, is a FACT!
Ezio = legend on the floor!
LibDems not distinctive enough? What could be more distinctive than sandals, socks knitted from organic Fairtrade muesli and Fair-Isle pullovers? What more do you want? Halitosis, perhaps?
This up-coming big story - it couldn’t be connected to the embargoed mystery book, could it?
29 - Of those 3 the Greens have the best chance of winning at seat at the next GE.
29 - Of those 3 the Greens have the best chance of winning at seat at the next GE.
35 Or a low turnout…?
Perhaps the big story is that the government has decided to prosecute the man who leaked the expenses story?
35- The CDU/CSU has shown a remarkable ability to lose votes in the closing days of national elections, ever since Helmut Kohl retired.
26 No its not its in Merseyside.
Plank / Keyboard Warrior
26 tim.I am your biggest fan on pb.com bar none but I urge you to ignore the pygmies at THIS stage of a thread.
Show David Herdson some respect.He deserves it if anyone does. The same applies to Morus and to Double Carpet.
It really offends me when their thoughtful threads get hijacked so early in the proceedings.
Mike posts all the time and HIS threads also get hijacked but in the nature of things, Mike’s threads tend to be more open and he probably doesn’t set as much store by them as do the other three.
33- Brogan never hyped the first day of the expenses story earlier in the year. If this is a Telegaph exclusive again tonight, they will get all of the free publicity it needs when the embargo is broken.
Brian Monteith: ‘Why Tavish still has a lot to learn’
When do you know a political party is having internal feuds that could bust it wide open? Answer. When a chief whip goes to the length of telling all the members to shut up and avoid speaking to the press. When do you know it’s really boiling over? When one of the members leaks the chief whip’s e-mail!
What Tavish needs is a pretext for announcing the change in approach. What could it be? Maybe doing badly at the elections next year?
Here’s how the news would break. First, the referendum policy is adopted by St Tavish’s. Second, St Tavish’s merges with St Andrew’s. Third, new limousines and salaries to match for both headies. You read it here first. I’d send my kids to Porty High School if I were you.
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/comment/Brian-Monteith-Why-Tavish-.5675407.jp
Brian Monteith is a former Tory (and then Ind) MSP.
His claim to fame is that he led the unsuccessful ‘No’ campaign at the Scottish devolution referendum in 1997:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997
19. URW. The L/Dems have shot themselves in the foot, leg and arm. I think they missed the head but not by much.
Their conference was a shambles and they will on my estimate lose about 30 seats in the GE.
What is true though is that other small parties will take a small but critical percentage from them.
16. Marquee Mark September 24th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Indeed! I am of the same school of thought as your goodself. Maybe they will still go for it as six months of this will mean a complete annihlation!
by Martin Day September 24th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Hey there, Blimpy Boy, flying through the sky so fancy free!
E to the Z to the I-O izzle!
Ezio says Tim is a wizzle!
FPT Wayne, just to be clear: are you saying that tonight’s revelations will lead to the eve of conference resignation that you already knew of, or are these two completely separate items, or is it that coincidentally the e.o.c. resigner happens to be also the victim of tonights news?
31 Keyboard Warrior
19 URW - Your point 1 about the intent is right, except that (a) they wrecked it by starting off the conference with talk of ’savage cuts’, a blanket freeze on public-sector pay, and abandoning their tuiton fees policy, and (b) they didn’t give any real reasons for anti-Tory lefties to vote LibDem rather than Labour - rather the opposite, in fact, since only Labour has the slightest chance of moderating a Tory landslide.
Actually isn’t this the time for the monthly yougov poll in the Telegraph? Or am I a week early?
35- Philippe
If by “upset” you mean that the CDU/CSU could have to carry on with the great coalitiot and not be able to switch to a coalition with FDP, yet it is possible.
However, it seems totally impossible that Merkel’s CDU/CSU will not stay the biggest party and lose the Chancellorship.
27 TBH If Galloway could allegedly get tactical votes in Bethnal, Green and Bow I’m not sure it is a given the Lib Dems won’t regardless within reason. If Gordon is Leader at the election there is a strong chance possibly of serious anti Labour tactical voting never mind tactical unwind against the Tories. As Jack W has said this week’s conference will be long in the past if it was ever in mind for most voters by the time those barcharts start dropping through letterboxes next spring.
Can anyone remember whether or not the Libdems are intending to repay the £2M donation they received which turned out to have been embezzled funds? It’s all gone very quiet on this matter - did Clegg mention it in his speech yesterday? In order to maintain its reputation, the party really does need to repay this sum for the benefit of the donor’s creditors. Presumably interest at a commercial rate should also be included.
OT, more fun and games in Glasgow NE?
Another Glasgow North East by-election candidate?
I’m hearing a strong rumour that the Jury Team are set to announce their first ever Scottish candidate tomorrow morning. He/she will be standing in the Glasgow North East by-election.
Big deal I hear you cry? Well, apparently it will be “a popular Scottish personality” that will be unveiled.
Wil it be enough to set a cat amongst the SNP and Labour pigeons? We’ll find out tomorrow I suppose…
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/09/another-glasgow-north-east-by-election.html
57, they aren’t, assuming they’re retaining the position Clegg had on a Politics Show interview some months ago.
43- S and S
Agreed. The luck of the CDU/CSU is that the left is now too divided to present a serious alternative. Even if right and left score about the same total votes, the greater division of the left and relative weakness of the SDP should guarantee a sufficient number of FPTP seats for the CDU/ CSU
I think that the explanation of the bizarre behaviour of the Lib Dems is fairly simple. They are frit. They probably realise that they are going to go backwards for the first time in many an election as the Conservative resurgence leads to not a few losses. I think they are adopting the wrong positions and certainly their tactics and strategy seem hopeless, but that is probably a result of panic.
58 Like who? Sean Connery/Jackie Stewart?
62, isn’t Connery SNP? I’ve also read recently Stewart wants independence, or a vote on it at least.
I caught the BBC 6pm news in the gym (wasn’t listening to the sound), but how many times did they show Gordo and Obama catching a chat together?
A couple of the encounters were truly cringe-worthy, “snatched” pictures of Gordo trying to shout to Barack through a ring of his entourage and the other Gordo striding out in front of the cameras with Obama, busily chatting away to him, only problem Barack head was in the opposite direction smiling and waving to the press corp (I think Cameron managed more conversation at the opening of parliament!).
58 - Please say it’s Janette Krankie
57. Reynard could set an example for a start.
This from Guido a few days ago:
“Guido was in Bournemouth yesterday speaking at a fringe meeting on the topic of MPs’ expenses organised by Liberal Vision. Greg Dyke was on form, his political promiscuity means the former Labour-luvvie is now a LibDem and he is helping the Tories formulate their media policy.
At the end of the meeting Guido asked the members of the audience to put up their hand if they thought the former LibDem chief-exec Lord Rennard should keep the £42,000 he claimed for overnight subsistence despite living in Vauxhall, just over the Thames from parliament. Not a single hand went up, not even the manicured hand of the Telegraph-beatified ‘Saint’ Lynne Featherstone MP who was in the room.
Even the co-panellist LibDem Lord Teverson, who was sitting next to Guido, said he was abstaining…”
58 - If it is a Jury team candidate shouldnt we all have been following the open and democratic selection process?
54. SE the last Yougov/Telegraph poll was the 6th September, so I doubt there is going to be one until after the Conservative Party conference.
63 - As far as I was aware he was, giving them quite a few bob over the years. Isn’t his position something like, I will stop living in tax havens and dodging tax and return to my Scottish if and when it is made independent. I wonder if he will do a massive U-Turn on that should it happen?
Scottish -> Scottish homeland
63. Reminds me of the episode of HIGNFY when Connery was last rumoured to be standing as a candidate for the SNP.
Bill Bailey remarked, “Presumably that’s on the living-in-Marbella wife-slapping ticket”.
65.TSE, well that will really shorten the odds.
67, also, the name Jury Team is pants. Might as well be called Justice Squad, or Equality Platoon.
Too early to be of much betting use but the comparisons between challengers are vaguely interesting, Huckabee coming out closest slightly ahead of Romney, Jeb Bush doing surprisingly badly in comparison.
Obama Job Approval
52% Approve, 44% Disapprove
Favorable / Unfavorable
Jeb Bush: 22 / 45
Mike Huckabee: 38 / 36
Sarah Palin: 37 / 55
Mitt Romney: 33 / 38
2012 President
Obama 50%, Bush 37%
Obama 48%, Huckabee 41%
Obama 53%, Palin 38%
Obama 48%, Romney 39%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_2012_pres_ppp_91821.php
73 The Fighters For Fairness?
“I think everyone has misunderstood the INTENT of the LD grandees attacks on the Conservatives rather than on Labour.”
The intent maybe but the implementation sucks.
As mentioned they’d need mischievous votes from Tories stuck behind enemy lines plus the sort of Labour voters they need to reach they don’t need to slag Tories explicitly, they can treat it as self-evident e.g “everyone knows you can’t trust the Tories with the NHS but you can’t trust Labour either because they’re incompetent MRSA merchants”.
Attack Tories in passing like they’re not a serious option while spending 90% of the time saying we’re the Labour party that can count past ten without taking our socks off.
That’s purely for the Lab-Lib seats obviously rather than Lib-Con ones and then maybe the ideal would be something that had a bit of both.
54. Peter Kellner of YouGov was on the Daily Politics today still saying that Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal with rhe British public.
But then he would as a diehard Labour supporter, despite the 15 point average lead of the Tories.
73 see 34
60- The CDU/CSU will stay on top, but it will be a terrible blow for them if they can’t do well enough to rid themselves of the SDP.
O/T Former Dem governor of Virginia officially refuses to endorse Deeds for governor - despite pressure from Obama
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0909/Doug_Wilder_whacks_Deeds.html
This looks bad for African-American turnout. However, Deeds has stepped up a lot the number of negative ads in the DC media market in the last week (I seem to see one every time I turn on the TV, even for the Redskins game!).
McDonnell defensive ads are not very effective for the moment and it seems that this ad blitz is slowly solidifying NoVa for Deeds. So it could really be a race where turnout is decisive.
The forthcoming two prime-time debates (Oct 12 and 24) could also be massively important. The previous ones were seen by very few people (even if newspapers relayed the events). Deeds is considered a weaker debater and his team has argued for a limitation of the number of debates.
77, I saw that. He also referred back to the Blair years (in opposition) when he scored 50% plus in polls, despite the differing polling methods.
I think the notion the Tories need 11 points (which is what Kellner said they needed) for a majority of 1 is outdated due to tactical unwinding, a probable low Labour turnout and swing seats swinging more than UNS.
Spare a thought, as the normally excellent Paul Waugh does every time you are delayed on the tube, another fine mess Team Gordo, including Vadera, caused desperately trying to play their favourite game of hide the debt!
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/09/shriti-vaderas-tube-disaster.html
73. Les Tricoteuses sounds nice. Since it’ll be in Glasgow, they could be the Scot-knits.
S&S - not sure if you saw my question from the last thread?
“474.464 - Same with ’socialist’.
What do you think of the census worker being murdered in Kentucky? Whether it was authority hating drug gangs or goverment haters full stop it’s got to be a concern.”
79- S and S
Agreed. That’s why Sunday results could be very interesting.
56. “If Galloway could allegedly get tactical votes in Bethnal, Green and Bow I’m not sure it is a given the Lib Dems won’t regardless within reason.”
I think making highly personal attacks on individual Tory politicians that Tory voters personally like is about the only strategy that could stop the LDs getting a load of free Tory votes in those sort of seats - same with the decapitation strategy in 2005 and all the publicity around that.
80- Interesting stuff, chris. It was rumored a few days ago that Wilder would endorse Deeds, so this is a real blow to his campaign. I expect McDonnell to hit him on the tax pledge flipflop too, but the ad war is certainly all-important in the DC area. I also think this race will be very hard to call until perhaps a week or so before the election.
New Jersey, on the other hand, is becoming very tough for Corzine. If a few more quality polls come out confirming Christie’s apparent position, I will be ready to say that one is over.
81 MD.Wow ! If Kellner said that (11 points etc.) then he has seriously lost it.
He was my political betting idol before I discovered Smithson but that observation is even more extreme than the most extreme political comment from our own Rod Crosby.
80 Will the rest of the EU and France especially be whistling and playing charades politically speaking for the next 9 months until Britain has its election? Looks hard to see how they can talk much turkey while one of the big players is effectively paralysed in terms of major decisions until the election.
88, perhaps I should add he said something like “The Tories need 8, 9, 10, 11 points for a majority of 1″.
Sorry, my post was probably slightly misleading. But even so, the 8 points is excessive in my view.
87 Stars how do you plan to celebrate? After 12 years you must be planning some GOP party in New Jersey.
68. jsfl. I would think that they might do a few more polls due to the conference season.
Seems damn lazy for a major pollster to only do one a month.
86 - “same with the decapitation strategy in 2005 and all the publicity around that.”
Honestly, do you *really* think that cost the Lib Dems votes in other parts of the country?!
88.URW, catch the discussion on the latest Daily Politics.
@90:
CALLING SMITHSONS.
What size lead does VIPA predict the Tories need to get a majority of one?
77/81 - Kellner is married to Labour’s former Leader of the House of Lords, and current EU Commissioner Lady Ashton.
90. Wasn’t the comment made when all and sundry were expecting Lab to be polling in the mid-30s?
At that time everybody was saying that the Tories had to poll above 42 points to form a government.
Things have changed somewhat since then.
Just seen the picture on Guido of Max and his new clients. I made the point days ago that if Baroness Scotland didn’t resign, she would ruin Labour’s conference and did they really want that.
And so it comes to pass.
“it seems totally impossible that Merkel’s CDU/CSU will not stay the biggest party and lose the Chancellorship.”
Ok, that’s also my feeling. I’ve backed Merkel for Chancellor quite heavily at an average of 1.15 now.
I’m not betting on the Coalition however. Not now. The center-right coalition is losing momentum every week, according to the polls.
Can the recent noise produced around the video islamo-threatening Germany in case of a Merkel win have any impact on the large number of undecided?
Anybody knows more about those undecided? Are they more prone to shift toward the Right or the Left?
92. W/C. I wasn’t suggesting Yougov wouldn’t do more polls (one for the Murdoch stable or Mirror Group perhaps might appear) but that it didn’t seem likely that the Telegraph would commission one until the end of the conference season as they had already had one only a fortnight or so ago.
93. Of course - Tory voters in LD-Lab areas. 100% certain.
98 - What really get my goat, is that that dodgy trio are probably going to rake in a tidy sum from this story, far more than the women could ever have imagined making being the illegal housekeeper to a Baroness.
As they say, Crime DOES pay!
‘Pope Benedict will visit Scotland’
- Cardinal Keith O’Brien, the leader of Scotland’s Roman Catholics, hopes that Pope Benedict XVI will address the Scottish Parliament.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/125480-pope-will-come-to-scotland-as-part-of-uk-visit/
‘Pope Benedict XVI to visit Scotland next year’
http://www.scotsman.com/latestnews/Pope-Benedict-XVI-to-visit.5678183.jp
92 weathercock - the pollsters undertake polls as and when they are commissioned (and paid) for doing so, they are in business believe it or not. It’s not therefore a question of laziness!
To be (slightly) fair to Peter Kellner, Messrs Wells and Baxter are equally half-witted.
I just punched 40-29-20-11 into AW’s site and it came up with a Con Overall of twelve.
Just hope all these people like a bet because they are wrong,wrong,wrong !
105, wronger than Wrong Jack McWrong, the winner of this year’s Mister Wrong competition?
The arithmetics of the German Elections seem so complicated. As well as the politics of coalition-making.
How long before we can know the number of MP for each party?
And how long can it tale for the politicos to for a governing coalition?
98 astateofdenmark
It’s typical of Gordon’s dithering.
Instead of sacking her and killing the story after 1 day when it became clear her position was untenable, he has let it fester.
The purported new revelations about the Tongan and her ‘British’ husband are going to make this run and run.
Pass the popcorn.
89- Punter
The French government, as I understand, will have some things to occupy itself in the meantime:
- the Clearstream trial, which will expose some of the dirty laundry of the Chirac era and could be damaging for Sarkozy (the alleged victim) if he overplays his hand (he’s widely criticized today for having mentioned in an interview “the guilty” and not “the accused”)
- the regional elections next spring are more important than it could appear: the last time, the socialists won 24 of 26 regions. Several ministers will be on the ballot and it could be a good opportunity to break the last strength of the French left: its hold on a majority of local governments (cities, departments and regions).
- on the european front, I understand that France will be patient as long as Brussels tolerates large national deficits and some kind of protectionist measures.
FFS, Genius Bob spent £6 million of our money on research that he was warmed was a waste of time and unsurprisingly came back with “Computer says….DON’T KNOW”!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8273616.stm
103.The Pope came North last time, and I expect a visit to Cardiff as well. Was there that day, absolutely fantastic atmosphere.
108 - Absolutely, I doubt the vast majority of the public had never heard of the women before the Daily Rant broke the story. If he had given the heave ho then and there, I doubt we would even be remembering much about it now. Instead, this is just like Jacqui Spliff, hanging around like a bad smell, and will run and run if Max Clifford gets his way.
One for Morus:
a strong rumour that the Jury Team are set to announce their first ever Scottish candidate tomorrow morning. He/she will be standing in the Glasgow North East by-election.
Big deal I hear you cry? Well, apparently it will be “a popular Scottish personality” that will be unveiled.
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/09/another-glasgow-north-east-by-election.html
108
Well exactly. He didn’t even have to sack her, just tell her to resign privately and the publicly accept it ‘with regret’. Story over.
I have little sympathy for self inflicted wounds.
As someone entering the political scene in the last decade, my first leaning in party Politics was towards the Lib Dems over iraq, and due to liking Kennedy and his policies.
However, when it came to joining a party, I joined the Conservatives. Why? Well I agree with the Conservatives on issues like Europe, which was the one thing I seriously disagreed with the Lib Dems on, plus Cameron was appealing. But also because the Lib Dems seemed an inherantly nasty party when I started to look at them in any detail. Too much backstabbing, in-fighting, mudslinging, and not enough positives. I disliked the way Kennedy was shown out, and his effective marginalisation since. I disliked the wishy-washy perception that Clegg gave…
I can tell you with certainty that the Liberal Democrats have lost ground and voters to the Conservatives; I’m one of them.
S&S : ” I also think this race [VA-Gov] will be very hard to call until perhaps a week or so before the election.”
I’m still stuck with 200 contracts on Deeds @30% chance of winning. I’ve sold 100 yesterday at 29.9; but they don’t go fast…
I really hope Deeds can make a good move, or gain some momentum. But it’s hard to see how. What does he have for him? I can’t see nothing…
Dont Labour MP’s have to give a tithe to the Party. Just wondering about the story that supposedly is breaking tonight?
114, a sideways move might have worked as well, or a demotion.
Murphy’s Law needs renaming.
Simon Mayo reported that Gordo was very angry about the questioning on Baroness Scotland, imagine what he is going to be like in a day or twos time!
So no one has any solid info on this story that is about to break tonight?
118 - If it gets too bad Lord Mandelson will slip a couple of horse tranquilizers in his tea.
As we’ve had a duck island, maybe it’s a gnome fortress!
114. You’re discounting the stories that there is/was no-one qualified enough to take over the position. Except maybe Bob Marshall-Andrews.
That would put Gordo in something of a cleft stick, I fancy.
Here is the special relationship in all its glory, well done Gordo (to be fair, I think Obama is being extremely rude, but it obviously takes the patience of more than a Saint to be able to spend time with the Great Leader),
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/24/article-1215714-069263CB000005DC-996_468×352.jpg
115- Philippe
“What does he have for him? I can’t see nothing…”
- the Washington Post
- A lot of money to spend on TV ads
- the Washington Post
- the changing demographics in Northern Virginia
- the Washington Post
- some name recognition in the Souther, more conservative part of the state
and did I mention the Washington Post?
Cherie! Cherie! Cherie!
Also, this will add to Martin Day’s theory,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1215780/Sarah-Brown-dazzles-meet-Geri-Halliwell-celebrity-dinner-leaders-wives-look-bored-UN.html
“Deeds has stepped up a lot the number of negative ads in the DC media market in the last week (I seem to see one every time I turn on the TV, even for the Redskins game!).”
Mike Blumenthal, of Pollster.com, also reported this fact in the beginning of the week.
This media market, he said, is one of the most expensive in America. It’s why, usually, campaigns launched their attacks in the last weeks of the run.
Seems kind of early now, with 40 days still to go…
91- I won’t be hosting any party, but I may attend one if circumstances allow. I am a more recent arrival in New Jersey so this doesn’t feel quite so momentous to me as it would had I lived here for many years. The more remarkable thing will be the confirmation of a sense that, for the first time in five years, the GOP isn’t on the defensive anymore.
Believe me, for nearly five years anyway, the GOP has been looking at everything through the prism of “how do we deal with this,” “how can we defend this,” or “how much negative impact will this have.” That isn’t much fun. The sense now is that there is ground to be reconquered and an environment where it can be done. The feeling in the air is entirely different. This is much, much more fun.
OT: Missed the German Election item last weekend; can someone commment as to whether Die Linke are just unreconstructed SED/communists, and are any of the parties standing less than wholly committed to Euro-federalism?
Daily Mail story on Ms Tapui’s arrest
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1215813/BREAKING-NEWS-Baroness-Scotlands-housekeeper-arrested.html
OT - ING have dropped Renault with immediate effect according to Reuters..
125. Arrrggggghhhhh!!
Second thoughts, no. She wouldn’t do it. They’re spending as little time as possible in the UK apparently.
Would that be because of tax, do you think?
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/09/picture-says-it-all.html
Indeed the picture does say it all.
104. Peter from Putney: Yes they are a buisiness. May I suggest thet they are not selling themselves vigorously enough for us PBers to be satisfied.
After all Polling is their ‘raison d’etre.’
” the Washington Post”
” the Washington Post”
” the Washington Post”
lol — Everyday I google “Deeds McDonnell” on the blog.search engine, and virtually everytime I get something like “The Washington Post slams McDonnell for…”
But who reads it?
Oh yes, it doesn’t matter : TV journalists are echoing it…
127- Philippe
It’s particularly expensive AND a large part of the money is wasted anyway: half of viewers (DC and MD residents) don’t even vote in Virginia.
126. Oracle - Check out the second pic. It looks like a photoshop cut and paste composite to me. How sad……
Throwing away their USP? Obvious answer is YES.
Good article DH, it’s the article OGH could not?
I predict something on expenses tonight and a singing housekeeper, know that Max Clifford is involved.
126. Oracle September 24th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Yes - when ever there has been stories like this in the past i put the expenses story where her husband transferred the westminster flat over to her and then cashed in on it!
135- who reads it? around 35% of the population of the metropolitan area (the best % for a single newspaper in a big US metro area)
SUPER SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE FOR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR’S RACE:
In my many travels across the face of suburban DC I I’ve seen plenty of signs for McDonnell but none for Deeds. This area of Virginia is about as Democratic as you’re going to get, so by that standard McDonnell will win by a good margin.
139 cheltboy
But Baroness Scotland’s “London”-claim troughing is well known - and she’s pretty minor in the grand scheme of things.
The moves in the spreads highlighted above suggest a much bigger story is going to break.
120. James Burdett.
I don’t know if many on this site have read ‘A Game of Thrones’, by George RR Martin, but Mandelson riminds me most of a character called ‘Littlefinger’.
A very devious person.
Lib Dem strategy is crap (a technical political term). If you slag off Conservatives, moving left to get Labour votes, you pee off centre votes. Yet the Labour votes won’t tend to go to Lib Dems so if you escalate the anti-Tory pro-Left talk you pee off the centre even more and still don’t gain many Labour votes. All the time you are firming up the Tory vote and exposing the weaknesses, divisions and inherent incoherence in the Lib Dem party. Let them carry on with this plan!
When is El Gordo due to return to this Sceptred Isle?
And when is his next press conference?
142- diane
McLean doesn’t count! But if it’s Arlington or Fairfax I would agree.
141- The Washington Post has a huge impact, though, since it sets a lot of stories in motion. They have single-handedly put Deeds back into a race that he was going to lose by a mile.
144
How old is the story?
If it’s old enough, I’ve probably read it!
But most likely forgotten…
Bugger!
146. September 24th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Cannot be long now. Not sure the TV media has been that bad on the latest developments so far.
Big story due - must be true, tim hasn’t posted for yonks, always a sure sign.
I wonder if we are reading the LibDem strategy wrong. I’ll happily admit that I was one of those criticising the approach taken this week, but….
From a Conservative or Labour perspective, the conduct of opposition is focused against the government of the day. After all, they are the people you are trying to replace, so you need to talk about what they are doing wrong. And sure, if the LibDems really were pursuing a strategy as if they could be the next government, then you’d expect them to do the same.
But, taking a step back, if you were going to try and map out a path to power for the LibDems, you’d know you had to take the long game, the first step being to replace one of the parties. In particular, you’d be cognisant that the LibDems, due to the merger with the SDP and the approach taken in the late 90s, had slightly schizophrenic support from both sides of the political divide and you would therefore want to purge one side to endure that you ended up in a position where you could take policy decisions that didn’t require almost impossible political balancing.
The logical choice would be the party facing electoral difficulty, in this case Labour. The standard model of political opposition, as said, assumes you attack the party you are trying to replace. But, where you have more than two parties, and the party you are trying to replace will be second, it could make more sense to attack their target instead. The aim is to show that party’s supporters that you can do the job better than the original party. You’d couple this with policies designed to attract those party’s supporters, and not necessarily policies designed for a winning position.
So here, we have the LibDems attacking the Tories, and showing a decisively left wing shift. Yes, in the immediate term, they will lose by alienating Conservatively inclined voters, and may well end up losing seats. But if it creates a stronger base in Labour areas, it may pave the way for more seats from Labour supporters in elections further down the line.
151. I would laugh my head off if it was something like Brown and Mandelson claimed for the same Hotel room.
133- Martin, did you guys have Mr. Yuck?
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/7/9553898_b958c37894.jpg
Back in the ’70’s/’80’s, it was a sticker that parents could put on dangerous chemicals in the house (bleach, pills, etc.) so kids would know to avoid them. Perhaps Mr. Brown needs a Mr. Yuck sticker…
151 absolutely spot on.
US May Face ‘Armageddon’ If China, Japan Don’t Buy Debt
The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country’s debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC.
CNBC.com
“It’s almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don’t buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. “I don’t know where we could get the money. I think we’ve let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try and get out of it.”
Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.
“If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent,” he said. “It’s not a question of the economy. It’s a question of who will lend us the money if they don’t. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we’re totally dependent on those two countries. It’s crazy.”
Slideshow: Biggest Holders of US Debt
Robertson said while he doesn’t think the Chinese will stop buying US bonds, the Japanese may eventually be forced to sell some of their long-term bonds.
“That’s much worse than not buying,” he said. “The other thing is, they’re buying almost exclusively short-term debt. And that’s what we are offering, because we can’t sell the long-term debt. And you know, the history has been that people who borrow short term really get burned.”
“The U.S. has to quit spending, cut back, start saving, and scale backward,” Robertson said. “Until that happens, I don’t think we’re anywhere near out of the woods.”
Robertson is not very optimistic about the short-term.
“We’re in for some real rough sledding,” he said. “ I really do think the recession is at least temporarily over. But we haven’t addressed so many of our problems and we are borrowing so much money that we can’t possibly pay it back, unless the Chinese and Japanese buy our bonds.”
© 2009 CNBC.com
It aint over ’till the fat lady sings, methinks.
And I cant hear her voice.
Starting in a few minutes on Watchdog,
“Guest reporter Alastair Campbell investigates a (unspecified) racket targeting hundreds of people, to which he himself has fallen prey.”
Insert joke below….
OT - I really hope that the coming Labour and Conservative conferences aren’t completely overshadowed by the Telegraph raking up expense stories. Yes there’s still unfinished business in all parties however I feel that besides a temporary uplift in Telegraph readership the benefit is to small loony parties like the BNP.
157 - Classic!!!
147. Of course it’s Arlington/Fairfax, I’m not about to climb over the fence of somebody’s horse farm to find out whether they have a sign on their lawn.
156. Yup. Palin 2012 (heh heh)
149. bono publico
First Published 1996 it the first part of ‘A Song of Ice and Fire’. A fantasy series, but very well written and enthralling.
You can get the paperback at all good bookshops.
152. David September 24th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Thats a well thought out piece and an enjoyable read!
I think you are correct in your analsis but i would say that all its going to achive is LD wipe out in the south. Thats to be welcomed by people like me but are they in sufficient numbers in the north to benifit? The Tories have always been a national party even when they were wiped out in Scotland and Wales in 1997. I dont think the LD have sufficient boots on the ground or funding up north to benifit. The LD could well lose the Tory part of their vote at the next election but hold onto the Labour alternative vote. As i have always said LD and Labour are really one party but stand on different platforms. Maybe this is the start of an overdue realignment. The irony is Clegg would probably be on the Tory side of a two party system? I believe clegg is one of those LD on the Orange side? Where as Huhne is Brown?!
161.
‘King backs pound despite five-month low against euro’
- The pound on Thursday suffered its biggest one-day fall since the Bank of England embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE) – as its Governor declared that sterling’s weakness had been “helpful” for the recovery
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6228216/King-backs-pound-despite-five-month-low-against-euro.html
158. The benefit in Labour seats goes to whoever takes advantage of it.
158 - I couldn’t agree more, unless it is a really really big story. I want to hear the Labour and Tory visions for 2010+, not that somebody got another Twix on the tax payer. We know who the real thieving bar-steward are (unless the story is another to add to that list) and we also know a lot of the rest have been taking the piss with our money.
166 Indeed. And on the Lib Dem prospects this was interesting. Not sure but worth reading.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/23/liberal-democrats-publicity-mailshot
Germany
According to a reputed German pollster, the center-right coalition could gain power with only 45% of the vote. They’re polling around 48-46%, down from 50% in early september:
Some analysts believe current opinion polls overstate the center-right’s strength because many undecided voters tend to opt for the left at the last minute.
If the center-right’s lead proves to be a mirage, it may end up relying on the overhang mandates. Analysts say the Christian Democrats could win an unprecedented 20 overhang mandates, which could provide the center-right with its margin of victory.
Conservatives and Free Democrats could win a majority in parliament with as little as 45% of the overall vote, thanks to bonus seats, says Richard Hilmer, head of the nonpartisan polling institute Infratest Dimap.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125374083730535317.html
152. David. I was just about to start typing something along those lines, but you’ve expressed what I was thinking.
Echoing URW at 19, I think the point ofthe LDs attacking the Tories is that they’re are actualy going for Labour voters rather than LD/ Tory swingers. Perhaps they believe the vulnerable territory is Labour territory.
They seem to have calculated that disillusioned Labour voters are still in large measure anti-tory. I’m not sure whether that’s right.
168. Punter September 24th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Thats all bullshit - What they are saying in essence that they have no one to go canvassing!
I dont believe a word of it! Complete cobblers!
170 I presume they think any Tory voters that may vote tactically are so fed up with Labour they can be won over with bar charts alone while Labour voters need something extra to convert them from mere abstention.
‘Are the Lib Dems throwing away their USP?’
Yes, I think they are for all the reasons that have been listed over the last few days.
138.LTL, I share your sentiments there. With the state of the economy right now, we don’t need to throw the baby out with the bath water.
170 “They seem to have calculated that disillusioned Labour voters are still in large measure anti-tory. I’m not sure whether that’s right.”
I think it’s right in that if you lined up disillusioned Labour voters from left to right there’s a load who have swung too much to the right for the LDs. Seems to me the fertile terrain for LDs is people who are still *just* loyal to Labour mainly because of their anti-Tory feeling even though they are just as disillusioned as the rest.
152. The problem is not in the theory but seems to be in the implementation. Basically for such an approach to succeed they should aim to replace the Blairite/New Labour faction of the Labour Party first ensuring they hold the centre ground (i.e. a small move to the left) and then expand their appeal from there. Based on their conference they seem have deserted it and are attempting to take Old Labour’s place (without the Union side of it) by echoing Labour’s rather weak anti-capitalist rhetoric.
It seems to me they are trying to win core Labour votes instead of scrapping for soft Labour votes and swing votes with the Conservatives. Basically, by trying to take what’s left of Labour’s ground they seem to be leaving a vacuum in the centre for the Conservatives and smaller parties to move into.
As we’ve seen when parties give up the centre ground it often leads to years in the wilderness. If there are two parties fighting in the wilderness it could well mean they are out there for even longer and one or both could end up stuck there.
It’s a significantly risky strategy.
173.That should have been 158.
160- Diane
During my summer vacation in upstate NY (Finger Lakes), I saw a lot of political signs on farmland, no need to climb the fence…
103. Pope Benedict will visit Scotland.
This sounds very unwise to me. Does she really need another overseas guest anytime soon? If he stays on to do any cleaning for her, she would be well advised to check his papers carefully.
“They seem to have calculated that disillusioned Labour voters are still in large measure anti-tory. I’m not sure whether that’s right.”
I don’t know-I’m pretty sure we’ve seen polling that suggests Labour’s core vote just won’t be turning out. That’s of course by no means all of the disillusioned Labour vote, but the thought is predicated on a strategy of trying to replace a party, which means you willingly take the hit from those that aren’t anti-Tory.
I’m prepared to be totally wrong though.
174. (cont) should have said “it’s partly right”.
113. Stuart Dickson.
Too slow, cheerio. (see 58)
A number that shows what a drag on Labour’s prospects Brown is
The news that Max Clifford is now involved in publicising the story of Baroness Scotland and the illegal cleaner is another blow to an already bruised Labour party. One of the last things that it needs is the beginning of its conference being overshadowed by a story that combines the two toxic issues of political hypocrisy and immigration violations. (There’s also talk that the Telegraph has more expenses revelations and that they will publish them in the next day or so)
But I suspect that the bigger problem for Labour, and why it won’t recover from its current dire position, is summed up by these sentences in Mehdi Hasan and James Macintyre’s write up of their interview with Gordon Brown: “As soon as our interview begins, however, his mood darkens, and he becomes more serious, at times defensive. He seldom makes eye contact and, all of a sudden, he seems oddly impersonal and stiff.”
If Brown is in such a defensive mood when being interviewed by one of the few publications that is still broadly supportive of him, it is hard to imagine him turning in strong performances in interviews with the sections of the media that are either neutral or sceptical of him.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5361481/a-number-that-shows-what-a-drag-on-labours-prospects-brown-is.thtml
146 Does Brown still do press conferences or are they as rare as his appearances at PMQs? When I have an hour to kill, I intend to track back over the last Parliamentary year and count just how many appearances he actually put in - I think the answer is about 15 or 16, which is a truly remarkable feat by him and must be a record low by a some measure.
I know MPs have ridiculously long holidays, but still …..
WEBSITE IS SLOWING DOWN FOR ME… is it time to dust off the site overload ‘counter-measures’ ahead of tonight’s news.
Is Alesha replacing Gordon?
If the LD strategy really is to overcome Labour in traditional Labour areas,at risk of losing some ground on the right, then it just may be a gamble that pays off very nicely.
Whatever anyone may think of the last few days conference, perhaps the whole thing is at root more intellingtly planned than was first obvious (to me anyway).
How did Barack Obama and Gordon Brown spend 15 minutes in a kitchen?
It is the stuff of GCSE maths nightmares: How long does it take two world leaders to walk round a 9,455 sq ft kitchen after a dinner of roast lamb, strawberry tart, Patagonian Malbec and sparkling conversation about climate change?
The surprising answer, according to Downing Street, is 15 minutes.
The calculations assumed some significance yesterday after Gordon Brown unsuccessfully badgered Barack Obama for a face-to-face meeting at the United Nations General Assembly summit
His aides insisted there was no snub as the two men had a 15-minute informal “walk and talk” as they took a shortcut out of a dinner through a kitchen in the building.
But the claim raised the question of how the pair managed to spend so long in a room UN staff said was no more than a 50 yards long.
Even allowing for a sneaky pause at the pastry chef’s station, a circuit should take no more than a minute. It meant the pair had time for at least 15 laps and perhaps as many as 20 if walking at a good pace.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6228290/How-did-Barack-Obama-and-Gordon-Brown-spend-15-minutes-in-a-kitchen.html
“It seems to me they are trying to win core Labour votes instead of scrapping for soft Labour votes and swing votes with the Conservatives.”
Yes, that’s what I was trying to suggest. You’d need to do this to try and replace Labour.
“Basically, by trying to take what’s left of Labour’s ground they seem to be leaving a vacuum in the centre for the Conservatives and smaller parties to move into.”
Indeed. That’s the cost, in the hope of obtaining more in the long run. Once firmly established as the second party, they may be able to then pursue a more centrist policy to get votes that could result in a win. Of course, the danger is that the core voters they have snaffled feel utterly betrayed.
“As we’ve seen when parties give up the centre ground it often leads to years in the wilderness.”
For Labour and the Tories, yes. But I’m positing that the third party nature of the LibDems means you may not be able to just transplant strategies and outcomes from the two parties that have a chance of power to a party that is in third place and, for all intents and purposes, in the wilderness already.
168. My word, some journalists are gullible.
A “senior administration official” took great pains to insist that there was no “snub” of Brown, but the Prime Minister, whose troubles are too numerous to mention, sustained even more damage back home with the revelation that, rather than holding a bilateral meeting with the president, he was “reduced to grabbing a 15-minute chat with the US president in the UN’s kitchens.” (How very In the Loop!) Still, those who worry about what it all means for The Special Relationship should have no fear: Obama is not de-emphasizing our ties with Britain, he just doesn’t want to be seen hanging around with losers. It’s why you’re not gonna see him campaigning in New Jersey again unless Jon Corzine looks like he has a shot. Which he doesn’t. Sorry, Gordon.
http://www.theawl.com/2009/09/british-prime-minister-granted-valuable-cup-of-coffee-meeting-with-president
Glasgow NE by election would be a brilliant opportunity for the SNP to put up a celebrity candidate like Sean Connery.
I can’t see him doing it but could Connery be persuaded to just stand for the by election and step down at the General Election in favour of a protege? If he won he would only have to serve as an MP for about 6 months at most. And what great publicity for the party.
187. David September 24th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
If that is the case why dont some of the sitting LD MPs go and tackle Labour seats? I am talking the MPs for places like Solihull, cheltenham, carshalton and wallington and the like? Surely they are facing electoral execution anyway? I doubt any of those three will still be MPs after the next election.
Sadly,I think the Libdems made a bad error making Clegg leader.As a third party,they need to seem different and they don’t need a leader who is (rightly or wrongly)perceived as a bland Blair/Cameron clone(public school and Oxbridge).His CV is even more detached from the real world than those two ,who at least had some experience of life outside politics after graduation(the Bar for Blair,PR for Cameron).Ashdown was different and respected for it.Kennedy was manifestly not a machine poltician and was popular with the public.His problems caused a genuine loss to public life.Clegg,in contrast,is eminently forgetable.Whether Huhne would have been any better,I don’t know.They have a good second division but lack talent at the very top.Oddly,25 years ago they were a much smaller party with a galaxy of leaders.
Were the illegal immigrant housekeeper and her husband to be charged and convicted of any criminal offences (two big “ifs” there), then it would be unlawful would it not for them to profit as a result?
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor:
… the best gag of the day undoubtedly goes to a sedentary heckler. (Sounded to me like Margo MacDonald - but undoubtedly she’ll put me right one way or t’other.)
Answering a formulaic question about his engagements, Mr Salmond said he had no immediate plans to meet the Prime Minister.
Heckler: “Neither does Obama”. Ouch. And, again, ouch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2009/09/the_alex_salmond_show.html
191 Chicken runs don’t tend to go down well, but yes, you could be right.
190. stjohn September 24th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
Thats is why i think an Autumn election is still on, there has been no writ moved for that yet. It was a huge giveaway when Norwich North was held but Glasgow was not. I actually think they were using that as a litmus test as to what they should do in terms of GE. I simply cannot see Labour risking what would be a safe Labour seat if they going to the country in the next month or two?
189 IIRC Sir Christopher Meyer suggested that if he had still been there, a copule of quiet enquiries resulting in NO and he would have let it rest. When pressed he suggested that 5 attempts was rather a lot….
I’m beginning to doubt whether the rumoured “big story” actually exists. On the basis that someone always knows and someone always tells ……. well no one has told so far, so does anyone even know?
143. I mentioned another story not just Baroness Scotland.
196. Is there some sort of formally defined limit as to how long Labour can postpone a Glasgow NE by-election? It’s been ages. Surely they can’t just put it off as long as they want? Or can they?
200. Steve September 24th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
Not sure on that front whether there is a time limit - If there is none you could argue that no government would ever have a by-election.
200 I thought it was set for November?
202. MTF - Thats news to me!
200 I do not believe it is possible to move a writ for a byelection - unless caused by death - whilst Parliament is not sitting.
The date of the election is not yet fixed, although Glasgow City Council was believed to be preparing for a by-election in September.[
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_North_East_by-election,_2009
Ho Ho Ho - October 2009 maybe GE month after all!
202. MTF - “I thought it was set for November?”
Nope. No writ has been moved yet.
If there is an election this Autumn i stand to make over £350!
I got some at 24-1! 
F*ck it as it is borrowed money anyway!
Assuming things carry on as they are.
The ex-Labour vote is mostly splitting between going well to the right of the LDs or staying at home. The stay at home ones are the possible fertile ground for the LDs as they’re the ones most likely to be distrustful of the Tories despite being totally hacked off with Labour.
(In those type of areas) I’d say the LDs need to present as just to the left of Blair vintage New Labour, but not too far, and they need to use things like expenses and “one law for them” as a wedge to get people to listen and then aim to differentiate with Labour on competence, stasi stuff and Blair’s wars.
Their conference was pants partly because it was so jumbled and partly because they over-cooked it (imo). Also it’s a shame about Kennedy for this because he’d be better suited to this role as he naturally sounds more Laboury.
The other thing about this is, if things carry on as they are i think there’s a chance, no more than that, that in really solid Labour seats so many Labour voters stay home you could have all sorts of odd results where multiple parties share the remaining low turnout.
198. PfP - Would they break a big story on a Thursday night just before a party conference or would they break it in the Sundays (trailed Friday / Saturday) just as the Conference is beginning?
Remember how long Guido had his target trained on McBride before the story broke prematurely presumably through 10 Downing Street initiation. Originally the story was intended to be broken on the Sunday.
There will be no Autumn GE, that window has now closed. There’s a remote chance of it being held next March, thereby avoiding a very unpleasant Budget, failing which it’s 6 May.
VIRGINIA POLL:
New poll shows McDonnell beating Deeds, 48% to 44%.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27543.html
The entire poll was conducted last night, was automated, and included 602 registered voters. Its result closely matches that of the Washington Post poll that was published last weekend.
194. Stuart. Do you read any of the threads?
But the best gag of the day undoubtedly goes to a sedentary heckler. (Sounded to me like Margo MacDonald - but undoubtedly she’ll put me right one way or t’other.)
Answering a formulaic question about his engagements, Mr Salmond said he had no immediate plans to meet the Prime Minister.
Heckler: “Neither does Obama”. Ouch. And, again, ouch.”
by ChristinaD September 24th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
198- PfP
It seems clear that an embargoed “political book” will be published. Will it be a “big story”? We’ll see.
210. Peter from Putney September 24th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Maybe - maybe not. Things are just going to keep going down hill for Labour. There is nothing they can do to make it better - not even change leader. These things get momentum and i would be surprised if they kept going till next year now.
212. Scott P
Scott, I find it incredibly difficult to read the threads. I do try to quickly scan/search as I do not wish to repeat a post, but if it was on a previous thread I’ll not see it.
You would need to be unemployed and childless, or retired/sick to read all the threads.
Whats the original source of the big story story?
194.Even slower, last thread.
210. Will it Brown who leads Labour in May 2010, though?
212.No one beats you Scott!
215. Stuart Dickson September 24th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Even i as unemployed, soon reduced to working for nothing never read all the threads! Too much!
2616 story story Tim, you sound a tad concerned….
The latest news I can find regarding the date of the Glasgow NE by-election was this 4 days ago:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jAJABYLQduV6nWGXj8nOUlW-S50w
213 - any chance the book and the expense story are one and the same thing ? Like I said earlier I am not too happy with the telegraph being THE story during the conference season. If there is something big re expenses then makes you wonder how long have they had the story. If it indicates any criminal activity and they have held on to it, to gain some readership uplift, then in my book the telegraph are just as bad.
215. Fair enough Stuart.
“You would need to be unemployed and childless, or retired/sick to read all the threads.”
or tim
206 There was some talk of it being in November prior to the recess, it obviously hasnt been called.
224.
tim is sick right enough…
213 Chris - a very effective way of giving the book a good puff though, even if the “big story” turns out to be somewhat lame.
219. I thank you
216- tim
Dale was the first to discuss it.
As one of his readers did, I checked if the telegraph had something on the upcoming book: look at the result in my link below, there is an article about the expenses book, dated today, but for the moment leading to a broken link. If it smells like an embargo…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/search/?queryText=no+expenses+spared
221 - What is the source of the “big story” story?
Is that clearer for you.
New NJ poll - closer than before but it’s VA that is the one to watch in my opinion.
“Strategic Vision (R)
9/18-20/09; 800 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(SVision release)
New Jersey
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 43
Gov. Corzine: 37 / 54
Sen. Menendez: 50 / 39
Sen. Lautenberg: 47 / 44
2009 Governor
Christie 46%, Corzine 38%, Daggett 8%”
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nj_christie_46_corzine_38_svis.php
Last time they polled it in July the lead was 15%, in June 12%.
230. tim September 24th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
The source is my bottom! I have green gas brewing at this time!
Any idea when we’ll get any details on this story?
I do loathe waiting without any information at all. It’s almost as bad as when boiler men indicate they’ll visit the house from 8-6. They might as well say “We’ll pop round on Tuesday between March and October”.
/impatient
231- ukpaul
I agree that VA will be the most interesting. With all the momentum at the moment Deeds clearly has a chance.
230 Yes indeed… you are seriously concerned.
230. Sudden movements this afternoon on the spread betting markets, I believe.
211 — re : VA poll
“The race has definitely tightened,” said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage. “Virginia is still very much a state that is up for grabs.”
Good. Now let’s see how the market will react in the next days…
I suspect it will remain around 70/30% in favor of Mac. But I hope I’m wrong (yet again!).
It did not move a iota after the the WPost’s release.
233 Save on your gas bill-fart in a jar!
The story is the book–it’s apparently about the Telegraph reporters and their work on the expense scandal and perhaps more on the scandal itself. Not exactly Woodward and Bernstein. Hopefully there is some juicy gossip involved, like ministers having sex in the infamous duckhouse or something like that.
Pig head or his office has obviously complained to Google agian!
http://images.google.co.uk/images?hl=en&source=hp&q=Dan%20rogerson%20mp&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wi
238. by Patrick West Ham fan who is still deeply distrustful of the Tories September 24th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
I rember my physics teacher telling me one of his peer group burn’t their arse out by lighting a fart - they had to go to hospital and spent months in there! So never fart near a naked flame!
Interestingly women hate farting - why do they hate it so much as i think it is very funny!
239 diane
Yes, but if rumours are true then it was embargoed.
That means there must surely be some new, juicy scandal waiting to erupt.
239.Diane, it would be nice to think that someone had some fun in the duck house at our expense.
only 55 mins to wait!
I do wonder if Baroness Vadera leaving the government is a sign of trying to deminish political news?
Jeremy Hunt calls for more Conservatives in BBC News
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/sep/24/bbc-news-tories-jeremy-hunt
Martin, I think you’ll find women hate YOU farting.
Well the politics blogs are quiet tonight.
I’d like a satanic ritual orgies in McDoom’s basement dungeon story.
246 - His shallowness takes the breath away.
242. If it was THAT interesting, somebody would have broken the embargo by now.
245.Martin, I thought it might be the other way around, and that they saw an opportunity for her to slip out an announcement quietly while the media were focused elsewhere.
247. don(the other one) September 24th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
I was once in a pub and did not see a work friend sitting behind my arse and i farted and she said she felt it puff next to her face!
I did not want to bonk her anyway, so it did not matter!
re VA poll : Huge Caveat
–>> This polls is of REGISTERED voters… rather than likely voters….
Given the lack of enthusiasm for the candidacy of Deeds, McDonnell must actually led by a greater margin than +4 amongst those likely to go out and vote!
241 Martin, you need Shreddies
http://www.myshreddies.com/flatulence_filter_underwear_store_for_instant_flatulence_relief/
Mind you, they’re a bit pricy for a man on the rock ‘n’ roll.
251.Diane, if its the Telegraph, doubt it. They ran a very tight ship during the expenses scandal.
248
Is that because everyone is holding their breath waiting to see what emerges from the rumours?
My betting, unfortunately, is nothing.
250 tim
Whatever suspicions Jeremy Hunt has of bias, it is a bit silly to say this so explicitly.
Coded messages would be far more effeective.
250, by coincidence I was just listening to You Take My Breath Away by Queen
255. elagabalus September 24th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
I always buy black underwere as the skid marks dont show!
250 - That’s rich coming from you.
243 The ducks probably did, or at least the drakes as duck sex seems to involve serial rape.
An army major general who was extremely critical of the government’s treatment of British troops in Afghanistan has suddenly resigned, the Ministry of Defence confirmed.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/sep/24/army-chief-quits-over-troops-treatment
258, I agree. The words of a plank, methinks.
84- I mentioned on the previous thread that we haven’t yet seen anything authoritative on the census worker case, so not much to say…
On the socialist label, I believe it should be used where it is demonstrably appropriate. Same for the racist label.
254- The Wilder non-endorsement is a real problem for Deeds when it comes to GOTV. There’s no black political figure more historically beloved in Virginia than Wilder, and his silence, as you might say, brille par son absence.
I had not noticed this until this time:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/politics-obituaries/6224063/Piers-Merchant.html
262.elagabalus, the ducks didn’t like their duck island, and wouldn’t use it. Ungrateful sods!
Guardian - Army chief quits suddenly as protests over troops mount
“An army major general who was extremely critical of the government’s treatment of British troops in Afghanistan has suddenly resigned, the Ministry of Defence confirmed.
Andrew Mackay, who was recently promoted general officer commanding of the army in Scotland, the north of England, and Northern Ireland, is the latest high-flying senior army officer to quit early amid protests at the treatment of the forces.
As the brigadier commanding British troops in southern Afghanistan in 2007 and 2008, he said he had felt like a student – getting to grips with Afghanistan, counter-insurgency and managing a large organisation. He said he was struck by the lack of clear direction from above. There was a sense of “making it up as we go along”, he said.
Mackay signed a “ground truth” memo, sent to London, which listed serious problems with his soldiers’ equipment. It noted that many of the Household Cavalry’s elderly Scimitar reconnaissance tanks had defective engines. Tanks labelled “working” could not get into reverse gear without restarting the engine, a limitation “not helpful in combat”, the memo said.
A quarter of the Mastiff armoured vehicles were out of action for weeks because of suspension problems, and many of the new Vector armoured vehicles in Helmand were not being used because “the wheels just kept falling off”. Heavy machine guns and reinforced Land Rovers were also in short supply, the memo added.”
262 How could you ever prove it was non-consensual?
266 Well let’s see plenty of poker rounds on all sides yet. Mr Wilder may yet find faith in Mr Deeds.
266 Well let’s see plenty of card playing rounds on all sides yet. Mr Wilder may yet find faith in Mr Deeds.
Am I the only one who reads every post on every thread?
263. Random fact of the day. The photo in that article was taken on the esplanade at Edinburgh Castle
269. Duckrape. Easy to allege, hard to prove. Twas ever thus.
Jeff Randall’s latest column
If you want to make something of your life and your children’s, prepare to be vilified, says Jeff Randall.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/6228473/Bad-news-for-the-rest-of-us—the-Guilt-Industry-is-booming.html
269 They don’t see terribly keen, generally keep running away until jumped on. But they’re probably asking for it in some subtle duckish way.
270- I doubt it. Wilder had some pretty harsh words for Deeds on guns and taxes:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/09/24/2079626.aspx
250, 258, 264 - I disagree. This has got to be addressed, and using the Left’s love of ‘quotas’ as the means is perfectly reasonable.
After all, they have target for balance of ethnic minorities, but surely it is much more important for there to be political balance in a publicly-funded and market-dominant news organisation - because that directly influences their output.
Labour started down this road, and once you start the logic is unassailable. So the BBC should start finding out whether the political leanings of their news teams are representative of the population as a whole.
I bet they’re not.
271.TSE, no, but you might be the only one who will admit to it though.
273 - Quack means quack.
Right, I am bored now. This better be good. Guido is very quiet.
277 - Call in Detective Jeremy Hunt to find out how Newsreaders vote.
This is the man who “didn’t realise” his agent had been living in his house for three and a half years ffs.
274 - I love Jeff Randall’s brand of grumpy old man schtick.
Jeff Randall is Littlejohn without the lobotomy.
282 - Me too.
I think this is excellent - It encourages the kids to either be enterprising or put something back - I know some of my posts about working for nothing on new deal may grate with some but their is principle an a level of reality in them - i think it is wrong to make people work for nothing: If they were properly paid fair enough but nothing - They can go F*ck themselves!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/fameandfortune/6226688/Fame-and-Fortune-Dragons-Dens-Peter-Jones.html
Your children will one day inherit from you. What are your thoughts about that?
I have set up a trust fund designed to keep them incentivised to work – they won’t automatically inherit large sums. If they want to start a business, then as soon as they begin earning more than £50,000 in today’s money, the fund will double their pay, and if any of them want to go into the charity sector, they will be rewarded even more. I have put a lot of thought into this and I’m not saying I have it 100pc right, but I’m quite pleased with it.
281 - Call it a wild hunch, but tonight might not be the night to major on dubious Tory expenses practices.
Question Time is back on tonight. Seems like a pretty good panel:
Harriet Harman, Lord Heseltine, David Laws, Lord Digby Jones, Fraser Nelson
Also, This Week is back.
276 Really Stars. If Reagan could get over Voodoo economics jibe to hire GHW Bush as his Vice President there’s a lot that can be overcome in politics where there’s a will.
271 – No, you are not.
287 - Yes, unfortunately for me I have to be up at 4am for work so will have to iPlayer the two of them…. if I can be bothered.
287 - 100% Public School.
Perhaps the Barbie Ken Hunt wants to change that.
287. The shrew, the traitor, the wossname, the fop, and the Jock.
Yeah, great panel.
287. The shrew, the tra1tor, the wossname, the fop, and the Jock.
Yeah, great panel.
287, 292. Actually, that was a bit harsh! Yes, it could be a good panel, but only cause of the interesting clash of very different wankers, rather than any intrinsic merit in the panellists.
292 - Bit harsh on Heseltine.
Could someone explain why the resignation of a senior military officer over Government failures is not on the BBC website?
292 - Traitor?
Removing Thatch after she tried to get Soviet tanks sent in to Germany.
Strange word.
288- Reagan brought GHW Bush in order to win an election. Similarly, Obama brought on a VP who had ridiculed him in the primaries in order to build a winning team. Why do you think Wilder would ridicule Deeds today and explicitly state he won’t endorse him, only to endorse him in a few weeks? What’s in it for Wilder?
292 - Tra1tor?
Removing Thatch after she tried to get Soviet tanks sent in to Germany.
Strange word.
295 - Journalistic laziness I would suspect, that or raging lefty bias.
Martin Kettle: Talk of a revival is fantasy. With Brown, Labour is toast.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/24/labour-revival-fantasy-toast
If you’re bored, I recommend nipping over to Guido’s comments for a limerick, which starts:
There is a young lady from Tonga..
It’s here:
http://order-order.com/2009/09/24/max-clifford-takes-tongan-to-tabloids/#comment-262692
295 - Because it’s unpatriotic.
298
Correct, The BBC website is always very slow, miles behind even five live, irrespective of its bias
300 - Future Poet Laureate there!
Very amusing:
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2009/09/24/trying-to-talk-to-gordon-brown-about-iran/
Heseltine betrayed his country over Europe, and his anointed leader for his own career. He is twice a tra1tor.
And he is now embarrassingly old and vague anyway. Enuff.
296 You tell me Stars. The examples you point to merely say rule nothing out.
What, tim, as compared to the known communists and tra1tors who STILL infest the higher reaches of the Labour party? The succourers of the Khmer Rouge? The apologists for Mao and Stalin?
Shall we do the parade of shame once again?
Why not.
These are KNOWN ex communists and Stalinists in the Labour elite:
Stephen Byers
Alan Milburn
Peter Mandelson
Bob Ainsworth
Charles Clarke
Jack Straw
&
Alistair Darling
Intro?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6228694/MPs-expenses-how-fury-over-plight-of-our-soldiers-blew-lid-on-claims.html
“After all, they have target for balance of ethnic minorities, but surely it is much more important for there to be political balance in a publicly-funded and market-dominant news organisation - because that directly influences their output.”
No “equality and diversity” means you have a gay New Labour supporter, a black New Labour supporter, a white male New Labour supporter (who obviously, apologises for being white and male), a female New Labour supporter, and a disabled New Labour supporter on the relevant quango or committee.
Though, finding New Labour supporters is doubtless difficult these days.
Right I’m heading off, I shall catch the bombshell revelations when I’m back up at 4am. Hope they are good. Laterz.
“I don’t know what Nick Robinson said to him in the 10 minutes he was inside the room – there was closed door between us – ”
“It’s a shame because I was the only journalist there planning to ask the PM all about Iran”
How does she know if she couldn’t tell what was actually being asked?
Stand by - BBC News @ 10 - major breaking story.
299.”It is not tough policies that Labour lacks so much as tough politics. The Labour party has to decide whether to face up, to give up, or wait for something to turn up. There is not much difference between the last two options. But if Labour chooses to confront its problems, it must see that everything about its future depends on the number of its MPs it can persuade the voters to return to Westminster next spring. That in turn poses the question of what the party can do in the coming weeks to maximise that number. That means putting on an impressive show in Brighton, then telling Brown he must go. Frankly, I don’t expect them to do either.”
Martin Kettle gets it right. If there is one thing that both the Tories and the Libdems have proved, they will move and take action if they feel the success of their party depends on it. It might not always be the correct course of action, but they do not sit there awaiting impending oblivion. The pendulum moves one way or the other. They are either prepared to be led, or try to lead their leader. But to have a PM who is incapable of leadership and unable to take any responsibility, combine it with a rudderless and spineless Cabinet and PLP. Well that is even worse than the Tories under Major back in 97′.
310 - Can that.
Just seen this tweet from Henry Macrory
Very damaging story about Gordon Brown and expenses expected to break shortly…
Macrory tends to over egg the pudding something rotten.
308 - From that
No Expenses Spared, written by two members of the Telegraph’s investigation team, describes how employees at The Stationery Office – where the MPs’ files were sent for censorship before their intended publication by parliament – reacted when they first saw the MP’s claims for second homes, furniture and luxury goods.
The workers, who included parliamentary staff on secondment, became so agitated that they had to be told by managers to calm down.
One of the expense claims which particularly enraged the workers was Gordon Brown’s claim for a Sky TV sports package, which cost £36 per month
291 tim
You forget that Heseltine had to buy his own furniture. A true meritocrat.
312 - Thanks Don, folks pay attention to Don, his posts are always well worth paying attention to.
315 Don at 312 doesn;’t though - most reliable source on this site.
319 - Indeed…but so is Cheltboy who produced some great scoops during the 2005 election campaign.
If its Brown himself then buy Labour seats
“One of the expense claims which particularly enraged the workers was Gordon Brown’s claim for a Sky TV sports package, which cost £36 per month”
That’s rather old news. It’ll add to the general malaise, but if that is the “damaging story”, it’s not so much over egged as over chickened……
297 TIM, keeping the flame burning for the sainted Margaret?
320 true, true. One of the most reliable sources!!
Surely not the sky subscription, it must be something bigger than that?
312.Is that young Don, or the ‘Don’ that has given us so many scoops in the past? The former might need to add an initial or something like our yet another Don.
321 possible tim, it really depends on what it is, and how Labour in general react. But you may be right if its a resignation issue and labour don’t trip over themselves defending him
321 - I wouldn’t, if Brown goes as a result of scandal then that would damage rather than assist Labour.
Two minutes to go!!
325 his cleaner?
306- Well, Punter, how about 25 pounds’ donation to PB if Wilder doesn’t endorse Deeds before election day? For my part, 25 pounds to PB if he does.
Meet the Jury Team candidate for Glasgow NE:
http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2009/09/jury-team-candidate-fo-glasgow-north.html
I wouldn’t buy Labour, too risky right now. They have not covered themselves in glory anymore than Brown, in fact, they are as much the problem as their boss right now.
no big story - leading with Iran and disarmament. boooo!
BBC 10 o’clock news leading on Iran
Iran…snub….
There is a young lady from Tonga
Whose paperwork couldn’t be wronger.
She’s gone to the press
Over her Baroness
And soon she’ll be dancing the conga!
Nothing.
2nd Story on ITV news.
ITV News at 10 looks a bit more promising.
1st Story about the cleaner.
331.Well spotted. That will put the cat among the pidgeons.
Telegraph story now up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6226839/No-Expenses-Spared-the-inside-story-of-the-Telegraphs-MPs-expenses-investigation.html
“1st Story about the cleaner.”
Meh.
340 well, Scotland is toast, Clifford the Big Red Dog has a new client.
BBC- UN tells people to be nice to each other
- Gordon Brown a bit of a saddie
- Loads of cool treasure found!
Nothing particularly scandalous
344 Scotland forgot to copy the documents. Really?
Oooh ITN saying the cleaner will claim that she never showed Lady Scotland her passport, but her arrest may stop her from selling her story.
345 - The cool treasure is an incredibly important story. Far more important than 99.9% of political stories.
344 The cleaner may claim that Scotland never saw her passport… lol
How utterly dull.
Clever plug of their book by the DT.
Could this squib be any damper? I’m off to bed. Pah.
I have been this disappointed in such a long time.
I was expecting something so much bigger.
Damn you rampers!
348 indeed. I got very angry with the bloke this morning talking to people like 5 year olds about a mystery kingdom called merica from long long ago.
It is a massive find, incredibly important.
Restore the Heptarchy!
Didn’t Iain Dale also claim Carol Thatchers golliwog comment was directed at Andy Murray in some similar exclusive
Hold your nerve. Forget Scotland. It’s all about the soldiers.
BBC newsroom frantically factchecking behind scenes.
Have i missed something ?
356 - Is that fact checking, or preparing the fire-fighting (AGAIN)?
Telegraph - boring - must try harder. I hate ramping with no delivery at the end. The book, we were there too. Seen it, done it, and got the T shirt.
355 TIM, you’re obsessed with the Thatchers! Is it a love thing?
356. Don speaks! Something big coming then.
“It’s all about the soldiers.”
What, that they were incredibly angry while working at TSO? I’m sure they were, but I seem to recall quite a few people were angry. It’s hardly a bombshell.
355 Non sequitur post of the night.
From Mock the week
“The one thing you know about a Lib Dem policy is that it definitely wont happen”
Perhaps they are waiting for the Telegraph to publish the story before htey report it. But, so far it’s a damp squibb.
356.”Hold your nerve. Forget Scotland. It’s all about the soldiers.
BBC newsroom frantically factchecking behind scenes.”
Are you the Don who slips us the scoops?
Does this mean we have not got the breaking story yet, and has this got anything to do with that Army Chief resigning as reported by the Guardian up thread?
364 I wouldn’t discount what Don says, hes always been right so far…
356 Welcome back Don - so there is a big story then, and I was planning an early night…..
This is it!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6228694/MPs-expenses-how-fury-over-plight-of-our-soldiers-blew-lid-on-claims.html
Microwave popcorn .. 3 minutes.. @D
368 Yes, and it’s utterly dull.
The mole was among the workers who processed the MPs’ expenses files, and his colleagues included serving soldiers who were moonlighting to earn extra cash for body armour and other personal equipment.
The soldiers’ fury when they saw the way that MPs were lavishing taxpayers’ money on their second homes led to the mole’s decision to leak the data to The Daily Telegraph via a middleman.
The man behind the leak - who is a civilian - has broken cover to tell his story for the first time, in the hope that it will shame the Government into finally supplying the right equipment for soldiers risking their lives in Afghanistan.
His account appears in No Expenses Spared, a book which is published on Friday and which discloses the full inside story of what Gordon Brown described as “the biggest Parliamentary scandal for two centuries”.
The Telegraph’s investigation into MPs’ expense claims earlier this year blew the lid off widespread abuse of the parliamentary allowance system, exposing the “flipping” of second homes, systematic tax avoidance, “phantom” mortgages and claims for fripperies such as moat cleaning, manure and a duck house.
No Expenses Spared, written by two members of the Telegraph’s investigation team, describes how employees at The Stationery Office – where the MPs’ files were sent for censorship before their intended publication by parliament – reacted when they first saw the MP’s claims for second homes, furniture and luxury goods.
The workers, who included parliamentary staff on secondment, became so agitated that they had to be told by managers to calm down.
One of the expense claims which particularly enraged the workers was Gordon Brown’s claim for a Sky TV sports package, which cost £36 per month.
The Prime Minister, who faces a critical test of his leadership at next week’s Labour party conference, has faced repeated criticism over his failure to equip troops and for his lacklustre handling of the expenses scandal.
371 - Do keep up Martin.
We have an old story, and people being angry. Hardly earth shattering stuff.
368 is it? if the Telegraph has published it, whats stopping the BBC with their factchecking behind the scenes?
368.Martin, already posted. Don’t think it can be, unless there are more revelations to come.
Gordon Brown on Simon Mayo crows about himself being untouched by Expenses
“One of the expense claims which particularly enraged the workers was Gordon Brown’s claim for a Sky TV sports package, which cost £36 per month.”
Dog bites man.
Front page news.
Pathetic. Yawn.
No Expenses Spared, by The Daily Telegraph’s deputy political editor, Robert Winnett, and chief reporter Gordon Rayner, will take you behind the scenes in Downing Street as Labour’s spin machine frantically tried to close down a crisis which rapidly spiralled out of control.
It will take you into The Stationery Office, where parliamentary staff reacted with disbelief to the claims for moats, manure and duck houses, and where a mole decided to leak the information to the public.
Packed with exclusive inside information, the book includes the first interview with the mole, who reveals the startling link between the war in Afghanistan and his decision to leak a copy of the expenses via a former SAS officer.
The Dark Ages - which started in Mercia ….
375 Yup if The Don says there’s a big story then on past records there is.
376 Yes, but the Sky Sports thing is quite old; that’s why the claim on Mayo was treated with derision here.
The soldiers have a point but it is one i have picked up and put on here many times! Including one of my first posts on communication allowance vs. MP expenses on communication allowance.
That was many years ago and i still feel bad about the association i made reguarding one person - It was far from him doing it and apoligises are a bit too late!
376 - I nearly fell off my chair when I heard him say that the other day! I can’t believe anybody in the press didn’t pick up on it in todays rags!
The Telegraph has a book to sell, this is just a marketing exercise.
Shame on me for falling for it.
“The workers, who included parliamentary staff on secondment, became so agitated that they had to be told by managers to calm down.”
?????
I don’t work in the civil service so maybe it’s different there, but to me that is hardly agitated.
373 With poorly equipped soldiers, let down by the government (again). Nothing new.
Still, Brown does look like a compete chump following Obama around like a love sick puppy. What a total bell-end of a PM.
384 - I’m withholding judgment. Don has an outstanding track record.
374.MTF, if Don’s on the case, there must be something else coming out tonight. Now either the Telegraph is holding fire to prevent others getting hold of it, or we have all got our wires crossed with that Telegraph book being trailed as well. It could be the story is in another paper.
I thought Baroness Scotland’s cleaner was going to turn out to be the Brown/Brown cleaner as well….
Interestingly the front page of the guardian has a story about 9,000 ex soldiers are in prison, aprrox 10% of the prison population
389 - £8 / hour for one job, £60 / hour for the other
MPs greedy, government treats soldiers like dirt–I’d hate for Don to lose his oracular status, but this is nothing new.
is that it?
Yawwwwwwwwwwn!
I agree with all those who say the Anglo-Saxon gold hoard is WAYYYYY more interesting. I did Dark Age European History for my A Level (so maybe I’m biassed) but this discovery SWIVES MY WIVES. Experts reckon it is greater than the Sutton Hoo treasure, and that was already one of the most poetic archaeological discoveries made in Europe in the post-war era.
Hengist f*cking Horsa or whAT!
Maybe it’s what’s in the book that’s the bombshell.
We might know more if we could access the index.
387.antifrank, I agree.
387 - Me too.
Resignation of a senior officeer, telegraph say the expenses story was started by disgruntled soldiers, and now the guardian story.
Somethings up.
“I don’t work in the civil service so maybe it’s different there, but to me that is hardly agitated.”
Oh for f**ks sake, look at this.
Calm down son, langauge.
=
workers, who included parliamentary staff on secondment, became so agitated that they had to be told by managers to calm down.
376 - Brown is also the bigggest second home cheat of the lot. He’s been living in a free house since 1997 and still claimed plenty of money for an additional one.
While we are waiting, Frodo from the Shire has spoken,
Lord Mandelson ’should face MPs over his empire’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6228994/John-Bercow-Lord-Mandelson-should-face-MPs-over-his-empire.html
The Telegraph did trail stories during the heat of the scandal then post the meaty stuff on their website after midnight. So it is worth keeping an eye on their site.
Even so, the news so far is as much a surprise to us as the title of Tom Knox’s second thriller!
I reckon this is to do with that Army Chief who has resigned, and there are going to be very damaging revelations for the MOD and Downing street. The Telegraph and their book. Just coincidence.
That is my best guess.
393 nothing beats Sutton Hoo! The one short period of British History in which East Anglia was the dominant force!
Go Redwald
393 - It’s particularly exciting because there’s so little direct evidence from Mercia. The literary records all look from other angles, yet Mercia was for a while clearly the most important of the Heptarchy. And the artistry is just outstanding, if the pictures we’ve had released are to be believed.
Does anyone think we may be on the verge of a military coup?
Afterall the leader is out of the country…..
Said Telegraph story on World Tonight on Radio 4 focussing on the mole’s motivation.
Former Defence Minister Eric Joyce claiming £187,334 must have wound up a few soldiers.
Has anyone seen General Dannatt? Has he written his memoirs?
Wasn’t that the purpose of that attempt to smear him on expenses just before he retired?
404 - nah, you need helicopters to have a proper one…
I thought the mole had already done a load of interviews with the papers.
398. When the expenses story broke, on one of the first nights of revelations I got the impression that the DT were all set to rip into Brown, but halfway through the article they backed off, denied that they were accusing him of serious misconduct, almost grovelling.
Maybe the situation has changed.
403. Indeed. I love the Sutton Hoo brooch buckles, me, but this looks even cooler.
I do hope they aren’t going to do something totally parochial and NuLabour and PC and dull and keep them in the Walsall Dome or whatever. These f*ckers should be in the British Museum.
There is also something PECULIARLY fascinating about Anglo-Saxon art. It is the rootstock of the British Empire and the Anglosphere, and therefore of paramount global importance, yet there is so little of it.
For the same reason I find Anglo-Saxon churches irresistible. Deerhurst! Kilpeck! Bradford upon Avon!
I’m off to bed then
404 It’s not really the British Army’s style. Enough people would know by now, and there’d be a certain amount of ‘chatter’. Still…
410 - The whole cleaner thing seemed very badly covered / researched. The groveling apology was cringe-worthy.
393 Indeed, there’s some very nice stuff in there. The gold & garnet sword furniture looks to me as high quality as the Sutton Hoo stuff - and there are something like 70 pommels alone. There are parts of “a number of” helmets, when to date I think only 4 Anglo-Saxon helmets survive. The only problem is with context - we don’t know how it was deposited or why, if it was just dumped in a hole in the ground it won’t tell us as much as for example the “Prittlewell Prince” burial from Essex.
But it does appear to ramp up the known level of material culture: Sutton Hoo no longer looks as much as an outlier as it did.
Am thinking of a quick trip to Brum on Sunday…
Here comes Ben (my daddy’s a good Labour bloke) Wright……
News 24 running with the mole and his motivation for leaking expenses…
News 24 now covering the Telegraph story in detail.
Still just about the soldiers/working at TSO/shocked angle
Newsnight running with Browns crush on Obama.
419 - it’s not a crush, it’s reciprocated, damn it!
New Democracy Corps poll shows Christie barely leading, 40% to 39%, and Daggett at 11%:
http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw092309bbk4.pdf
Based on 601 likely voters
This is from an overtly partisan Democratic polling organization that has routinely produced the most pro-Corzine polls, so I wouldn’t make much of it. I’m looking forward to any new Quinnipiac, Monmouth, etc. polls to verify the state of the race, which I expect is somewhere around 47% Christie, 40% Corzine, and 5% Daggett (leaving about 8% undecided).
Corzine’s inability to grow his support is the key factor. If he can’t get into the 40’s, he’s done.
403 You’re a bit out of date to talk about the “Heptarchy”, that’s history for schoolkids (ie a lie). There was quite possibly never a single time when the “classical” 7 kingdoms existed alongside and independent of each other, and there are plenty of others - Bernicia, Deira, Magonsaete, the Hwicce, the Middle Saxons, etc etc.
The beeb is going with it now, while it’s nothing new in terms of expenses, it further goes and heaps another load of dung over Brown and his equipping of the military. Basically stories like todays, and what we will no doubt get throughout the Labour conference are just going to further erode any sense of authority that Brown has.
390 Labour betray our soldiers.
While they risk their lives overseas, they are sent to the back of the queue in Britain.
419. EdP September 24th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
I think we are humbled but not out for the count as yet. It all depends on the next GE - If Labour manage to win, then diplomatic and economic decline are assured. If Cameron wins - something new and enduring may occur.
So is that it then? If it is, move along, nothing to see, other than the Telegraph ramping their own book.
The damaging story could be ‘how Gordon Brown reacted’.
QT 30 years - new series starting now. Heseltine and Harman - should be class……
No savings to be made here then,
The rural quangos draining our taxes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/6228030/The-rural-quangos-draining-our-taxes.html
426 - At a guess, he shouted, he screamed, he threw a phone, he pushed his computer monitor off the desk….
Whats intesting is this week is the best Brown or a Labour replacement will get - it is very weak indeed: Labour cannot get anything better now.
Indeed Brown by giving away national nuclear defence is making the uk even more marginal - what an idiot! What a prat!
427 - watch the second or third question be about Europe for some reason, just so they can get Hezza into a muddle with his own party.
Times running a anti-Tory story,
“The Times report that 28 prospective Tory MPs with a good chance of winning a seat are lobbyists who previously sought to influence the Conservative party.”
403
“The literary records all look from other angles”
LOL. I do hope that was on purpose antifrank. We have way too few intellectual jokes on here
426. I think that might be it…
will take you behind the scenes in Downing Street as Labour’s spin machine frantically tried to close down a crisis which rapidly spiralled out of control.
At the minute only the front pages are out, give it an hour or so until the rest of the paper is released. I have no doubts that the Telegraph has excerpts from the book that rip into Brown. This is why the Beeb as Don stated are back checking their sources.
433 - Sadly, that was far too clever a joke for me to have made on purpose.
“The Times report that 28 prospective Tory MPs with a good chance of winning a seat are lobbyists who previously sought to influence the Conservative party.”
Meh.
436
I’ll just pretend I never read that and credit you with a cool historical joke.
432 - is that really anti-Tory? ‘People involved in politics want to become politicians’, or am I missing something obvious? Probably is the answer
Harman being skewered by Fraser Nelson on Question Time.
435 What beats me is if the Telegraph wanted to sell loads of copy, surely they wanted snippets on the BBC 10pm news… Perhaps as Toontoon says, the bomb is delayed action?
Martin, RELATIVE British decline is a certainty. It’s just a fact. We are a nation - resourceful and deft, to be sure - of just 60 million people.
Compare that with China - 1.4 BILLION, or India, 1.3 BILLION, or even Indonesia - 240 million. Likewise Brazil, Russia, Nigeria, Mexico, etc.
We have two choices as a nation. Yield to the inevitable and become what we were: Elizabethan England, a smaller mammal amongst the hefty dinosaurs, darting between torpid legs, making a fine living from our wits and nous. OR we unite with Europe or the Anglosphere/America, and submit to being a part of a greater whole, and still able to weild *global influence*.
I confess I’m not sure which I prefer. Frankly I prefer the Pax Britannia. But that’s not on offer.
If we go the EU route then the EU has to be seriously reformed. That I DO know.
The big story ought to be the Guardian’s - treasure is wonderful but it’s been there for 1400 years and now its been declared Treasure will be in a museum for all of us to see - but 12,000 ex servicemen on probation and 8,500 in prison is truly shocking.
The MoD’s response, well I rarely want to swear when posting but am very very tempted:
“The Ministry of Defence acknowledged that a “small minority” of ex-service personnel can face serious difficulties. A spokesperson said: “We provide a wide range of support, before, during and after leaving the services, including the MoD’s Prison-in-Reach initiative,”
20,000 isn’t a small minority considering the size of the armed forces, even allowing for churn of new servicemen entering and leaving. It is a serious issue that needs more than PR.
437. ….on the principle that if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.
I can’t stand Harriet Harman, but she’s pretty effective at filibustering on Question Time to good effect. A patriarchal pat on the back for dear Hattie.
Also, Heseltine looks more and more like Bernard Ingham every day.
Why is David Laws sitting like a total arse? And I love Fraser Nelson’s voice - it sounds like he’s always eating a load of toffee.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00618/Cartoon_618704a.jpg
Times getting in on Brown’s valentine cards.
Hattie for PM - just imagine it!
444 Link to story is here
Ooooh audience didn’t like Hattie’s answer there
443. SeanT September 24th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
I just dont think the EU route is the one too follow, they have nothing in common with UK political thought IMO! I think we should be independent even if it means nothing in the global context! Of the two i would go for the US rather than europe! There is a huge strand of UK thought that is more US than EU! We like enterprise, we like people inovating - Labour and the socialists hate that but F*ck them! They got into power through bullshit!
I agree with you on many levels!
429. Let’s make a check list! Which of these elements will be part of Brown’s reaction?
- language inappropriate for use inside the walls of a manse
- language insulting to people of certain ethnic and sexual orientations
- unintelligible gibbering
- destruction of personal property
- destruction of electronic equipment
- destruction of furniture
- bodily assault
- binge eating
- self harm
- release of bodily fluids
10.53 Well done Michael!!!! Smack Harriot
Harman getting battered on QT - this has echoes of 97 all over again…. real loathing developing i sense.
453. Is that the agenda for a Brown Cabinet meeting?
454 - Hezza is a star.
453 threatening legal action against them if they published
443 “We have two choices as a nation. Yield to the inevitable and become what we were: Elizabethan England, a smaller mammal amongst the hefty dinosaurs, darting between torpid legs, making a fine living from our wits and nous.”
World population 6 billion -> 9 billion = kaboom big time.
Go with option 1, survive the coming flood while others get dragged down by the tide of humanity, rich pickings after.
Tarzan strikes poor jane
QT is awesome so far; it’s all bad news stories for Brown
Scotland up for it now yesssssss
I don’t understand why the opposition MP have never simply used the term “enabler” when referring to the governments role in al-Megrahi release, rather than get bogged down as they always seem to do.
460 what did he do?
It may be down to her rampant personal ambition, but you cannot deny that Harriet will at least climb into the lion’s den.
But once she’s got in there, God, she doesn’t half unleash some ill-thought-through nonsense…
David Laws loves himself so much he seems to have used his own semen to do a Cameron Diaz hairstyle.
If Hattie mentions Baroness Scotland’s race or gender she’s going to get lynched.
David Laws is a bit smug. Looks like an 80’s Tory Boy. Nice sweepover.
Next question - is gordon world statesman of the year?
Another smack at harriot
464. verbally not physically
An old GOAT that I actually like is sticking it in as well
464 - Hattie refused to comment on the Megrahi release decision, saying it was a matter for the Scottish Executive.
Hezza said “You’ve criticised governments across the world, are you really saying your not going to criticise the Scottish executive”
or words to that effect
464 - said she was a politician, she’s supposed to have an opinion. Why can she state an opinion on everything except Lockerbie?
466 - and every time he has to answer a qurstion he sits in this weird sideways posture.
Digby Jones has gone off message tonight. Naughty boy.
EdP September 24th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Even so he is still an arsehole! I hate him - he talks b0ll0cks on skill shortages - he has no idea!
Didnt see this posted tonight
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1215747/Piers-Merchant-Tory-sex-sleaze-MP-dies-cancer-aged-58.html
475 His “I was a GOAT for Queen and Country” is all rather wearing, though.
448 - Lool - sad if you think about it though.
Indeed Martin, indeed.
At least, whatever our fate, we have the consolation of knowing that the English language (and, perforce, English culture and ideas) will dominate global intercourse for decades if not centuries to come, with all that entails.
This truth often strikes me when I am in France, as I am now.
France dominated Europe from the 14th century to the 18th, if not longer. It was and is the largest country in Europe at a time when Europe was dominating the world.
Essentially, the world should be speaking French. But because the wily Brits discovered the Industrial Revolution first, and because we kicked their arses on the Plains of Abraham (and in India), it was that small fogbound island off the north coast of France - i.e. England - that went on to win the global culture wars.
I’m not sure the French have ever forgiven us for this: that our military and then our language crushed theirs, with the result that the internet is English while they are now most famous for a crescent shaped breakfast snack (I exaggerate, but you know what I mean).
Heh. No wonder De Gaulle was so snitty.
Is that Valley Boy in the QT audience?
Well done Hezza go for it
Just done a YouGov mostly about technology but three political questions at the end. Voting intention and whether I’d be watching GB and DC’s speeches live.
Oh no, Nelson on the Christian B&B Owners, head / desk / thud!
Let’s find Fraser Nelson a safe seat. His voice is soothing upon my ears.
Hezza may not be quite as nimble on his pins these days - but he still has the ability to goal-hang and turn them into the back of the net…
An unfashionable view: Barack Obama is making a serious mistake downgrading the US’s relationship with Britain so carelessly. It appears less to be conscious foreign policy and more to be diplomatic ineptness.
Gordon just popped up on Sky News …. and I turned the tv over without thinking.
Says it all really.
David Starkey!!!!!
OMG, had badly briefed if Harperson, “I thought the maximum fine was £5k”….
if -> is
485 - Get him to stand against Gordon in Kirkcaldy.
Woman asked about Lim Debs
Love it Limp Dems (sic)
485 Somewhere nice. In or around Manchester. TIM will love having him so close to Smear HQ.
What is Digger Jones wittering on about…
487 - I agree in some ways. He isn’t differentiating between Brown and Labour being rubbish and snubbing the UK well enough. I think that’s what he’s actually doing, but it looks like a national thing and I’m not convinced it is.
Marquee Mark September 24th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
I like Hezza even though when i e-mailed him at his company address he gave a withering reply!
I wanted him to recommend me to Tory MPs for a job! He is a sound bloke and has an emense experience in government! I was surprised he replied! Even if i was disappointed! 
I still like him all the same - top bloke!
Hezza is taking them all on!
497- Digby Jones is bloody awful, every answer seems to go via Clapham junction with a change at Bristol Temple mead.
Waffle merchant…!
In case anyone is interested our by-election in the safe Tory
ward produced nothing very exciting - everyone’s vote declined
compared to 2007, Tories plus 5 per cent share, BNP minus 5,
LibDems minus 1, Labour plus 1. Turnout 31 per cent.
What is Dimble-bot on, apparently house price inflation is due to Russians buying up all the property in the capital!
Make Hezza in charge of campaigning against the Lib Dems!
480 As you say, France’s cultural dominance was extraordinary during that period (in fact, I would say from about 1100 to 1800); after all, even English Kings wanted to be French. Imagine if Edward III or Henry V really had succeeded in taking the French throne. England would have become a backwater, in favour of the larger State.
I would say that really killed off France as a serious contender was the Revolution, and the Napoleonic wars. England emerged from the Napoleonic wars without any real rival for 50 years; France emerged from them with less industry than in 1789.
502
I would have thought BNP-5 Tories up 5 was something to be applauded.
What were the vote shares Nick?
503 Dimbley a bitter man who has clearly been gazumpski-ed!
Narcissus Laws has stolen all of TIM’s lines!
504. Anyone ever seen Michael Heseltine and Martin Day in the same room?
Bearing in mind Question Time is pre-recorded…
Tendring Council - BURRSVILLE ward: Pam Sambridge* (Con) 455 Joyce O’Brien (Lib Dem) 227 Max Morris (Lab) 90 Chris Southall (Green) 52 Majority 228 Turnout 46%
Laws was doing well, until he went on IHT bashing, and then you could hear a pin drop as not a single member of the audience supported that attack.
502. Doesn’t look good for you Nick!
Nothing personal of course! But you are doomed!
504 TSE
Prefer Pickles’s love-bombing. He ate Huhne for breakfast.
Harriot is gloating because the Lib Dems conference was worse than what Labours been doing over the last XXXX days/weeks/years
David Laws: “I lived through the Tory years in the 80s, and I don’t want to go back to them”.
This would be the same David Laws who was at private school until 1984, at Cambridge until 1987, and was then a VP at JP Morgan from 1987 until 1992.
Tough life…
Fraser Nelson is a cutie!
513 - Is there nothing that Pickles wont eat?
Looks like the Baroness hasn’t yet been found not guilty by the Court Of Public Opinion quite yet:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1215813/BREAKING-NEWS-Baroness-Scotlands-housekeeper-arrested.html
(Last updated at 10:57 PM on 24th September 2009)
Digby Jones doesn’t seem to realise a £10k allowance would cost £22 billion.
516 - He is, if I weren’t already engaged…..
Mansion House tax is clearly a good call to disillusioned lab supporters given comments of some of the audience now!
517 No.
People say that they want progressive tax system. But rich people already do pay a lot more tax! And at higher rates! Jeez - QT audiences are so simplistic sometimes.
Hezza is great though - he loves having a go at Socialists and Lib Dems!
He is one of my political hero’s! 
He has the right idea!
My favoutite QT was when he was asked if he ever wore fur - he laughed massively!
Those who know my postings will know why!
521. That 23 year old in the audience was annoying. Labour supporter sporting the politics of envy. She’s a graduate so the world owes her a living and his musician boyfriend who doesn’t earn enough may want to think about getting a proper job.
Whymdoesn’t anyone ask WHY these people want to come here - then remove the attraction.
523 - also a lot of rich people use tax avoidance scheme to pay as little as possible.
Gordon Brown has the schtench of Political Deth about him.
Nobody wants to be tainted. Least of all a novice Teleprompter President with popularity issues.
Oh Harperson on the BNP rant, zzzzzzzzzzz
Harriet Harman going medieval on a BNP supporter.
Trouble breaks out at G20 summit…..what’s Gordo done now!
526 apologies wine kicking in
526 - That is spooky, Fraser Nelson just asked that question!
523 - I believe it’s a West Wing episode that talks about firetrucks not coming 27 times faster. Even a show as liberal as that gets the point that rich people more than pay their way already.
525. woody662 September 24th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Too an extent you are correct - but the party she supports makes her gaining a job even harder. She is very wrong and extreame!
529
If the BNP didn’t exist, Labour would have to invent them.
Laws blaming the French, suddenly I like him
what never gets asked is why dont the migrants in France claim assylum there? what’s wrong with France? Why the UK? You never get this question answered by panellists on shows like QT, or any news programme.
537 - Laws says the authorities make sure they can’t, hmmmmmmmmm, anybody believe that?
Laws being a tw@…
Haha. Hezza can identify an asylum seeker on sight.
539 - TBH, Hezza not doing much better!
David Laws was obviously really rattled in that exchange with Hezza, and you could actually hear the tremor in his voice. Although he has been around in politics for a while, this man ain’t used to a tough or hostile exchange. I noticed that he immediately tried to personalise his attack before he came back at Hezza, and he was rightly called on it by him.
That is yet another reason why the Libdems were wrong to go after individual members of the Tory leadership in the way they did at Conference. Digby and the audience rescued him at the end. But it showed yet again how damaging it has been for them to lose their nice guy image in this way. The Brits don’t like this type of negative campaigning *if* it doesn’t resonate with the victim. So take note when it comes to calling Cameron a conman or Hague a skinhead. Notable that Hezza was introduced tonight as the first Cabinet Minister to appear on QT.
That exchange proves how utterly wrong headed the Libdem strategy is, and this is in front of what normally turns out to be their friendliest audience annual on the programme.
How safe is David Laws seat?
Digby’s sticking it to the French as well go on my son
What we used to hope was that the Army would turn otherwise disreputable lads in to disciplined young men. It used to work (well I think it did - what were the corresponding figures for the 1980’s?).
Now they are exposed to fierce combat and do not have the support of understanding that it is in a good cause.
I think it is a good cause but I also think we are not expending anything like enough effort money and moral commitment to it. Feel free to disagree - thats fair enough. But in any event if we are there it should be done properly and that includes looking after our troops when they come back.
BTW - Wellington did not say his army were ‘the scum of the earth’ he said they took the scum of the earth and turned them into soldiers.
525.And no one came back and told her that the people she wanted to see taxed again and again, have already been contributing a hell of a lot more to the financial pot than she had yet to do.
543 Pretty damn safe in Yeovil
530 It might be a protest by members of UNISON who are out there.
547 - Drat
I am so sad for these persecuted migrants but most will have come through
Greece
Italy
Germany
France
before they arrive here. Why arent they claiming assylum there?
The answer is BENEFITS.
Nick if your saying the BNP vote was down 5% are you saying we only polled 2.1% in Broxtowe tonight (Based on the last time we contested the district seat and polled 7.1%)
506. Yes absolutely. But it was that crucial window of French weakness in history - 1750-1850 - in which England went out into the world and made the future British - or at least English-speaking - rather than French.
They timed everything very badly. But at least they have good patisserie.
543 - maj 8562 (17%) so pretty safe.
518 Richard Nabavi
Scotland has to go.
The jury of public opinion will believe the Tongan cleaner rather than the Attorney General.
Hezza definitely had some ‘wobbles’ there so whilst still a few goals up, he’s let the Lib Dem score a consolation goal for sure with his generalisation that they are all economic migrants… can’t say that for certain.
Stonking end though for him pitching Harriet for a new mature BBC news reader as she’ll be out of a job soon!!!
553 - Not many £1 million mansion in Yeovil either last time I visited!
556. Not even much indoor plumbing in Yeovil.
555 - I think Cameron will be pleased that Hezza is the face of the old guard and has little to nothing to do with him, as that comment about spotting economic migrants on sight was a very stupid thing to say.
505 IIRC the population of Great Britain was around 10 million at beginning of Napoleonic Wars compared to French population of nearly 30 million - fifty years later Great Britain had doubled, France had grown by 20% to around 36 million, the costs of decades of warfare, loss of millions of young men.
The Franco-Prussian and then WWI didn’t help in the long run either, while the British lost a generation in WWI, France had lost too many generations in continental wars - in 2009 the UK was 61 million, France 62 million.
555 - the thing is, Hezza is actually sort of right. He just made the point in a lazy way that Laws could then exploit.
550 Not necessarily. Language and previously established communities of fellow countrymen are as much a factor.
Ahh - and This Week now - hooray - the political programmes are back !
Lets get rid of asylum processes worldwide and just give Hezza some photos to choose from.
546 - We’re all against tax rises that affect Dave and Gideon on here aren’t we?
555.Odd QT, the panel were up for a debate but the audience was not. Weird and strangely lifeless to be honest.
The Tories have to find a safe seat for Fraser Nelson.
477. Not the kind of politician I would go to bat for but he’s not even in the ground and the Mail are p*ssing on him. Disgusting.
564 Not many crumbs of comfort for Labour in the audience reaction, though.
563.Oh dear, we are using the ‘Gideon’ name again. Just imagine what this site would look like if all posters chose to try and use their idea of derogatory terms to address others here or in Westminster.
Cut it out, it ain’t smart or attractive. And your image could do with improving, and its about time you made the effort.
We debated this point about purile insults a while back, and most people did stop doing it. The site was better for it.
569 - Martin, take a chill pill.
Enjoyed Harman’s humiliation tonight
Harman did well on QT tonight. Excluding Manelson, she is Labour’s best media performer by a fair distance now, in my view.
The guy quoting the BNP on Question Time tonight was Andrew Emerson a BNP activist and regular candidate.
505. Economics too. Britain established an efficient system of finance that allowed huge state borrowing to finance warfare. And industrialisation allowed the economy to grow out of its debts.
Meanwhile France endured periodic crises in the state finances prior to the revolution due to a woefully inefficient tax and financial system and the cost of warfare. And of course it failed to industrialise on the same scale…
572 - I agree, she’s got a real thick skin, compare and contrast her face to face time with the public in contrast to Gordon Brown.
574. Who NPMP might be familiar with.
571. “Enjoyed Harman’s humiliation tonight”
Hmmm, I enjoyed Heseltine’s even more. The “you can just tell” gaffe will live long in the memory - I never thought I’d find myself cheering on an Orange Booker so much.
572 - you watched a taped edition from 1998 then I take it?
563 Do you refer to the MP for Rotherham as Denis Matyjaszek ?
572 - In all honesty, the best thing she did was keep out of the way for most of it. Answered the question with a stock response, not sure people bought the Libya and Baroness Scotland waffle though, but then let Digger Jones mumble on endless about something and nothing, later followed by Hezza and Laws both talk crap about immigrants / asylum seekers.
577 - The thing is, Heseltine is a nice tory, and no one, not even the most partisan will be able to pin a racist/nasty badge on that man.
577 - nobody in the audience seemed that bothered. It was stupid thing to say, but he was bang on in every other comment he made on the programme. Harman called for the sacking of Ed Balls and Laws showed how nasty and personal Lib Demmers can be.
Also on Heseltine - the line about the ‘Abramovitch Tax’ being the “most cynical use of language I’ve heard in modern British politics” is quite a brave statement for a man who’s been cheerfully shooting his mouth off for forty-odd years. Just for starters, I seem to recall him comparing the SNP to the Nazis during the 1992 election, on the rather vague grounds that they were both ‘nationalists’.
572 sinjun
I have seen much worse from Harman. Her problem is that she cannot think to the end of a sentence. So what she says starts well but then fails to conclude. I put this down to lack of processing power.
The best speakers share this trait, but they get their audience to anticipate the conclusion. Boris Johnson has this ability, but the all time master was Gerard Hoffnung.
582. “nobody in the audience seemed that bothered”
There was actually loud laughter in the audience when he said it, or rather when Laws picked him up on it.
581. It was Heseltine who made a big speech in the 80s about people who lived in the UK who werent white. Along the lines of, they are here, they are British and should be treat as such, iirc, he got a standing ovation.
563 tim
The age of the patrician Tory is over. Dave would never admit to prejudice.
586 - Thank you, I was trying to remember who said that.
+1! He’s HOT
587. We all prejudge, we do it all the time in everything we do.
570. y The Screaming Eagles September 24th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
What is there to chill about? Immigrants - not born here are taking jobs i can do: Yet i am too middle class and too white to do them? Meanwhile i build up more debt!
I am very angry indeed! Why should i chill? I am not going to chill and f*ck those who have come over here on any grounds! I am not going to take it sitting down - it is plain wrong.
587 - Heseltine isn’t prejudiced, but that was one hell of a ball drop.
Didn’t Heseltine quell the Toxteth riots with arboreta?
Who was that woman on This Week just, spouting nonsense.
589. “+1! He’s HOT”
All the same, the poor lamb looked utterly devastated that his fame hasn’t yet spread far enough for…people to actually know which order his name goes in.
Heseltine screwed up massively there. But Harman hardly had a good QT.
Fraser Nelson and David Laws did well.
592. I think he was making the point that most of the so called asylum seekers had common characteristics, ie, young able bodied single men.
572.stjohn, I would disagree with you there, and the Labour party would make a mistake in going with her next. She is one of a small band of the ’sisters’ who have been an integral part of the New Labour project, and like the rest of this group, she is always put on programmes like QT in the tough weeks when the government are getting a pounding.
Hewitt, Smith, Jowell, Blears etc. They could all have done something similar. But Harman doesn’t do details, and she wouldn’t survive PMQ’s or a press Conference on the wider brief of a premiership.
Take tonight, she is the leader of the House and a lawyer, and despite the Baroness Scotland story being one of the hottest issues for the government, she didn’t even know her basic figures. Seen this happen time and again. When things get really tough, like one infamous interview on 5 Live, she resorts to the little girl act with the snap of her fingers. She has the skin of a rhinoserous, but then so does Gordon. And that ain’t enough.
592 Which you no doubt, will attempt to endlessly exploit on this website for months on end, in between mentions of your beloved Margaret.
591 - “I am very angry indeed! Why should i chill? I am not going to chill and f*ck those who have come over here on any grounds!”
Should I warn my grandparents?
Sh*t. I’ve never seen Evan Harris before, and he looks sodding terrifying. I always assumed he looked like the bald fella called Evan from the BBC.
594. Diane Abbot, she’s on every week.
I assume you mean Speech Debelle, Mercury Prize Winner.
Speaking of nonsense, it’s Quentin Letts. What a lemon.
I think we might have seen a new low in the bbc’s poltical coverage, not since Jeremy Vine dressed up as a cowboy with Quentin Letts and his performance tonight.
592 tim
It is a ball I have often dropped.
It is Popper’s falsifiabilty.
“All men are mortal”
“All swans are white”
“All asylum seekers in Calais are economic migrants”
584. Seth. I know what you mean. I think I’m a bit like that too!
Harman is becoming more confident though and is increasingly able to use humour effectively and accept criticism with good grace.
600. The Screaming Eagles September 25th, 2009 at 12:10 am
Pf course not - when they came here before you were born is one thing - what goes on now under Labour is another.
re 595 Red Meteor I’m afraid that’s a curse that those of us with interchangeable first name and surname have to endure through life. Especially when the work email system describes me as surname.firstname.
608. “Red Meteor I’m afraid that’s a curse that those of us with interchangeable first name and surname have to endure through life.”
Actually, to be fair the same applies to me. In fact, it’s worse for me because reversing my name turns me into a girl!
But one thing is quite clear - neither Laws nor Dimbleby are avid readers of Fraser Nelson.
605. They might have been aslyum seekers when they entered the European Union, by the time they reached calais however, they were economic migrants.
Chris Huhne seems to think the Lib Dems control Edinburgh “outright” - ahem.
Instant reaction to Quentin Letts on This Week.
http://twitter.com/#search?q=Quentin%20Letts
609 RM
Given the choice of inviting Kelly James or James Kelly to dinner I regret to say I would choose the former.
Now I never got the second name from that anagram …v
609 - David Dimbleby has an unfortunate talent for getting people’s names wrong on QT.
Robin COCK anyone?
598. Christina. I accept Harman doesn’t always deal effectively with questions. But I think she’s getting better. Yes she has a tough skin. But it’s her ability to communicate well, smile and engage that makes her a rare quantity in the current crop of Labour ministers.
603 - easy tiger
re 609 I blame Warren Christopher for popularising it as a surname
Chris Huhne is terrible at TV. If Portillo is mocking your party for something that was said in a conference speech, remind him of his “Who Dares Wins” moment. Humourless fellow, is The Huhne.
Well the Beeb have taken up the story ..
“The expenses scandal began because the mole who caused the leak was angry about inadequate equipment for the armed forces, the Daily Telegraph said.
The newspaper says staff who worked in secrecy processing the MPs’ receipts were guarded by moonlighting servicemen on leave between tours. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8274041.stm
604 - Yep its definitely your skin colour thats preventing you getting a job.
I bet Heseltine could spot you are seeking an asylum.
Get some help.
616 Hate the people who make the decisions.
This is getting ridiculous. The government won’t comment on Megrahi, Diane won’t say anything about Baroness Scotland. What is the point of them being in government anymore?
If they don’t want to comment or be seen to have a position. Then call an election and lets us do it for them!
523. Martin mate, call it a night and get some sleep.
551: Wayne, just came in, earlier was from my fiddly Blackberry so no details and back of the envelope calculations. Exact figures were Con 1081 (56.6%, +5), LibDems 474 (24.8% - 1.6), Lab 296 (15.5% +0.5), BNP 58 (3%, -4). It’s the second Broxtowe constituency by-election running showing a large drop in the BNP share. In numerical terms the Tories were down 285 (compared to average share in this multi-member ward), LibDems down 230, Labour down 104, BNP down 147. All compared with 2007. In 2003 the Tories got 55% of the vote with no BNP presence, so the ward is actually very stable for them, neither gaining nor losing significantly ove rthe last 6 years, but they dropped a bit when the BNP intervened and have now got it back.
625: Martin Day @ 00:32
Mr. Day that comment isn’t acceptable. Time you wnet to bed.
Shame Martin did’t get to stand as a Conservative candidate. Reckon there’s another party that suits today’s rambling a little better.
623/625 Martin Day
What you said is disgusting.
To any moderators, please delete those posts ASAP.
623 – Martin Day, that comment could will see you yellow carded.
And rightly so.
I so hope Martin doesnt meet me at the gym, after I’ve had a session in there, and am all hot, sweaty and smelly
628 - That’s not on Martin. It should be moderated - if only for your own sake.
627 - So largely a swing straight from BNP to Con?
Martin, after being yellow carded for your comments, you should be red carded for your spelling
634. We’ll call that the reverse-Martin.
Mr Day, you’re abusing Mr Smithson’s site imo.
I think I’ll call it night, before I get anymore upset.
Martin, hate is like taking a poison hoping to make someone else ill. Take the advice and give it a rest.
629. Noooooo, you’re trying to destroy some future student’s thesis on the racist construct of “Martin Day.”
** END OF THREAD ****
642. This site is sort of like a cyber version of Mr Smithson’s house and you’re p*ssing all over it.
642 - When you sober up tomorrow, I hope you will be back here apologizing like you never have before. Any sympathy with your predicament, made worse today, has now completely evaporated.
642. Martin, why don’t you go off and make a spoof website about Barry Sheerman, it’s much more fun than racism.
646. Martin, if you were suspended from the site for trying to rig a silly poll, I hate to think what’s about to happen to you now. So try and hold off from posting until you’re sober. PB.com needs Martin Day - the authentic version.
Is there no way of getting him silenced? Does anyone have OGH’s phone number?
646:Do yourself a favour go to bed.
Would you like Trevor Phillips’s job if it comes up Martin?
Martin - I’m delurking for a mo. Red M is right at 647.
Just calm down my friend and hit the hay.
How about we all go to bed now and let this thread die a natural death?
Martin Day,please,PLEASE calm down-I have felt like venting off about things many a time on here,and face to face,but please,do NOT get banned for life over the last 30-45 mins-and if OGH judged thus,frankly you would have brought it upon yourself-but NOI-you’re the downtrodden decent victim of what has gone wrong under Blair/Brown-I really feel for you,but c’mon Martin,you cannot blame non-Caucasians for everything
Martin, what you’re saying is vile and pathetic, not to mention very illegal. You could get yourself, but more importantly, OGH, into a lot of trouble.
Please just shut up, go away, and don’t come back.
Martin Day,
Fear and despair are the enemy and not Paki’s, dirty or otherwise. I’d guess you feel great right now but it wont last.
Martin, you might be looking at a REAL ban. Never to return. I know you had a rough experience today but please cool off.
505
“after all, even English Kings wanted to be French. Imagine if Edward III or Henry V really had succeeded in taking the French throne. England would have become a backwater, in favour of the larger State.”
Sean, I think you’ll find that the point was that the English Kings were French. Or at least Normans which was near as dammit the same thing. Until John lost most of his French territories England was very much a backwater in many respects and some kings (Richard I as a case in point) almost completely ignored the place for most of their reigns.
Go to bed Martin.
This talk of Martin coming back tomorrow is ludicrous. If he’s allowed to continue to participate on a forum like this then it’ll be a stain upon the site forever.
Being racially prejudiced is a matter of opinion. I find it nauseating, but hey, that’s the price we pay for democracy. Talking of murder, especially along any sort of organised (i.e. racial) lines, is a whole other issue. How can anyone conceive of continuing to read posts by Martin Day after a sustained diatribe (it’s not like it’s one casual post) of invective like this?
One of the biggest ironies being that he decries immigrants for being unable to speak English, then writes unintelligibly day after day after day.
Pathetic.
534: That’s right, Eagle - basically the 2007 election saw a 5% swing Con-BNP and this one saw a 4.5% swing BNP-Con. In addition, 2007 saw a big Lab-Lib swing which was partially reversed this time.
I’d like to say that this shows the Tories making little progress in Broxtowe (since they’re barely above their 2003 result), but the truth is that it’s a strong ward for them anyway with perhaps limited scope for further progress. I don’t think the result shows anything very exciting for anyone, except that the BNP are out of fashion in my neck of the woods.
The far-left anti-BNP leaflet circulated in the by-election may have been effective on this occasion, too. It appeared to show the candidate enjoying a drink in front of a poster celebrating the Wehrmacht, allegedly at a Nazi music festival. If one wants to get votes from people who think that Britain needs more patriotism, celebrating the people who tried to invade Britain may not be the best atrategy.
(Oh, and as someone who’s always got on amiably with you, Martin, I do think that turning in would be a good idea: you’ll be glad in the morning that you didn’t go on even more.)
543 Very - if he defects.
660. Just read on to Martin’s comments and realised humour is misplaced.
I would say something but you’ve said it all
658 Agreed on your first paragraph and sentences,but as:
(a)Martin,aged 33,had doubtless mental health issues
(b)Has suffered long-term unemployment (which I did under John Major’s govt,with the result I would not say what I wished upon them,but hey ho,I was only in my early 20s :wink:)
(c)Martin can bring light and humour here,
I for one,despite being unable to contemplate voting Tory (like Martin Day when compos mentis),would feel we lost more than we gained were Martin Day permanently excluded.
Oh dear…..
I reckon OGH next pops on he might feel like one of those parents returning home after a nice weekend away, to find that their teenage child decided to advertise a house party on Facebook.
662: Patrick etc. @ 01:16
I appreciate the points you are making but BritoninCT is correct. There cannot be any return for Mr. Day.
I wish someone could wake Mike up and/or press the delete button.
I feel queasy for him. He wouldn’t be happy knowing what’s up on his site.
665 Especially after a holiday in Northumbria,where I enjoyed an idyllic week in summer 2000..the scenery,grandeur was breathtaking-just ashame it’s so long a drive from Bournemouth on the south ruddy coast of England!
665 SallyC
Morus will probably be awake in America if anyone has his contact details. I think he still has moderator privileges?
665: SallyC @ 01:21
Feeling the same as you, and having already emailed him, I just found Mike’s phone number. Not surprisingly, given the time of day, no reply.
665.SallyC, I have emailed him. The best I can do right now. I didn’t want to post or inflame the situation any further.
Might be the best idea for everyone to consider this thread closed until Mike is able to start a new one in the morning. I am sure we can all survive for a few hours without posting.
Good night one and all.
Moving on - I see Guido has made the Daily mail..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1215813/BREAKING-NEWS-Baroness-Scotlands-housekeeper-arrested.html
670 - sorry didn’t see that.. perhaps it’s for the best.
Do one brave thing today….
http://tinyurl.com/yduasvf
I’ve sent Morus a message on Twitter, hopefully he’ll get a email alert as a result.
Is this a job for International Rescue?
please, just calm down, the situation will resolve itself in due course.
Worse things happen at sea. I know, I’ve been there.
On fire, not under command, taking on water, engine about to fail in a force 10 at night…
We came through OK.
One for possible discussion tomorrow as it could have betting implications depending on if he gets some traction.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2654012/John-Smeaton-launches-bid-to-become-a-Westminster-MP.html
The first juicy story I can bring you since my move onto the Scottish Sun site!
672 - I’ve unapproved a number of Martin Day’s comments, and don’t believe he will be able to auto-publish until Mike reapproves him.
Thanks to those who got in touch - Wibbler and Mitchell Stirling - I’ll let Mike handle this from here.
Because of the comments removed, and others allowed out of moderation by other posters, numbering on this thread will be very odd for a little while.
673 RodCrosby
I see you are predicting a swingback again.
NEW CONTINUATION THREAD.
Thanks Morus.
Morus, thank you.
Off to bed now I know they’ve gone.
Night all.
676. I was certainly praying for swingback, lashed to the deck that night in August 1982, watching the bow fall into the void in the raging North Sea…
(OT) I went to the National Gallery yesterday. I wonder if these two were as handsome in real life as they look in their picture? We need to develop time travel so that we can find out.
http://tinyurl.com/ybou3o3