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Will the 2009 version become the “bible” for gamblers?

September 24th, 2009


PoliticsHome

The updated mega poll is due within a fortnight

I’ve just had word that the fieldwork for the 2009 Politics Home mega marginals poll has been completed and we should get it in early October.

It is on the same scale as the 2008 September version which covered more than 34,000 separate online interviews in a total of 238 parliamentary constituencies where the big battles at the next election are going to be fought.

The sample was seventeen times the current maximum for the polling of marginals and the PH team, in conjunction with YouGov, devised some interesting approaches to testing things like tactical voting.

Alas last year the project was quickly overtaken by events. The banking crisis suddenly erupted, we saw the early rumblings of Brown Bounce II and the results of a survey that had taken place during Labour’s nadir didn’t seem so relevant any more.

The poll also covered tactical voting and made predictions for each of the 238 seats.

This is seriously good news for all who like predicting and gambling on the general election.

Now if only we could find a way of stopping copies getting into the hands of the bookies!

Mike Smithson