A special Sean Fear Friday Slot
September 25th, 2009
Sean looks ahead to London’s locals next May
The next London Borough Elections are due in May 2010, probably on the same day as the General Election. In 2006, the Conservatives led strongly, winning fifteen boroughs outright, compared to eight for Labour, and four for the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives’ lead, in terms of vote share, was less impressive, winning 35%, compared to 28% for Labour, and 21% for the Liberal Democrats.
If, as seems likely, the Conservatives win a large majority in the General Election, then they will probably have a bigger percentage lead across London than in 2006. However, many people do not vote the same way in local and general elections. I expect the vote for the Liberal Democrats, and the minor parties, to be squeezed slightly, if both elections are held on the same day; however, I expect them to poll more strongly in local elections, than at Parliamentary level. Overall, I assume that the Conservatives’ lead over Labour will be similar to 2006, although both parties will poll slightly better than they did in that year. Turning to each borough:-
Barking & Dagenham. I expect Labour to lose this to No Overall Control. In Barking, the BNP ought to make gains, simply by fielding more candidates than they did in 2006. In Dagenham, I expect the Conservatives to win wards like Eastbrook, Chadwell Heath, and Whalebone, on the back of their general election campaign against John Cruddas. Labour’s losses in each part of the borough should cause them to lose overall control, but to remain the largest party. Barnet should see the Conservatives increase their majority, while Bexley and Bromley will be easy Conservative holds.
Brent should be gained by Labour, from No Overall Control. The coalition between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives has not been popular with either party’s supporters, and has led two Conservative councillors to resign. This borough gave Labour one of its best results in the London Assembly elections. Labour should regain Queensbury, and perhaps win Barnhill, and regain some ground from the Liberal Democrats in the East of the borough. Camden will, in all likelihood, remain under No Overall Control, with the Liberal Democrats possibly emerging as the largest party.
Croydon will be an easy Conservative hold, while Ealing will provide one of the closest contests. It was won comfortably by the Conservatives in 2006, but the London Assembly results suggest that Labour will make gains. Labour actually led the Conservatives marginally, across the borough as a whole, but led in fewer wards than the Conservatives. Labour’s problem is that they pile up huge majorities in Southall, while the Conservatives pull off narrower wins in the rest of the borough. I would expect a narrow Conservative hold.
Enfield Unusually, the Conservatives lost ground, in 2006, mostly to campaigners against the closure of Chase Farm Hospital. That campaign has now faded away, and the London Assembly results suggests the Conservatives will retain the borough with an increased majority.
Greenwich and Hackney will be easy Labour holds, while Havering should be held comfortably by the Conservatives. Labour actually finished fourth in this borough in the European elections, where once they had three MPs. They may well be left without a single councillor. Hammersmith & Fulham and Hillingdon will be retained comfortably by the Conservatives. Hounslow will, in all likelihood, remain under No Overall Control. Harrow, which also saw a very good Labour performance in 2008, and whose Conservative administration has attracted criticism, will probably be lost to No Overall Control.
Haringey will again provide an extremely close-fought battle between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The London Assembly elections, in which the Liberal Democrats performed poorly, and the Conservatives well, provide no guide to the borough results. Anti-Labour voters here often vote Liberal Democrat in borough elections, and Conservative at Mayoral and Assembly level. The Liberal Democrats’ problem is their inability to break into Tottenham. At this stage, I am not prepared to predict which party will win.
Islington was nearly lost by the Liberal Democrats in 2006. As with Haringey, the Assembly results (which show the Liberal Democrats badly trailing Labour) should be ignored. Nevertheless, this borough does offer Labour its best chance of a gain, in London, and I expect that they may just do it, even if the Liberal Democrats beat Emily Thornberry in Islington South. A further complicating factor is that the Green Party could well gain seats here.
Kensington & Chelsea will be a predictable Conservative hold. Kingston, which the Conservatives nearly gained from the Liberal Democrats in 2006, will be very tight. On balance, I would expect the Conservatives to win it narrowly.
Lambeth should be held comfortably by Labour. Lewisham (which has an elected Mayor) should likewise be retained quite comfortably by Labour. Merton will provide an extremely tight contest, with the Conservatives dominant in Wimbledon, and Labour in Mitcham & Morden. In a polarised contest, I would expect the Conservatives to win the one ward that is held by Residents, Merton Park, and take control. Newham will be an easy Labour hold.
Redbridge has been lost by the Conservatives to No Overall Control, following the defection of two councillors. I expect them to regain it next year. Richmond will be an easy Liberal Democrat hold. Southwark will likely remain under No Overall Control. Sutton will probably be a narrow Conservative win. Tower Hamlets will likely see Labour retain its overall majority, but the Conservatives should continue to advance in Docklands. Westminster and Wandsworth will remain predictably Conservative, and Waltham Forest will just as predictably, remain under No Overall Control.
Sean Fear is a Tory activist who for several years contributed his regular “Friday Slots”
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damn!
There is some weird phenomena going on here.
Am I Enzio after all?
PLATO IS FIRST AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3, Ezio, d’you mean?
4 Oh bugger
reposted from last thread, sorry to go off topic
polly thinks GB resigning
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/25/gordon-brown-resignation-labour-conference
O/T — sorry, but this will surely interest a lot of you betting on US politics
One of the most respected American pundit, a young statistician, is alleging that pollster Strategic Vision is fraudulent:
—>Nate Silver : “Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud”
…Yesterday, I posed several pointed questions to David E. Johnson, the founder of Strategic Vision, LLC, an Atlanta-based PR firm which also occasionally releases political polls. One of the questions, in light of Strategic Vision LLC’s repeated failure to disclose even basic details about its polling methodology, is whether the firm is in fact conducting polling at all, or rather, is creating fake but plausible-looking results in order to increase traffic and attention to its core business as a PR and literary firm.
…I looked at all polling results reported by Strategic Vision LLC since the beginning of 2005; results from 2008 onward are available at their website; other polls were recovered through archive.org. This is a lot of data — well over 100 polls, each of which asked an average of about 15-20 questions.
For each question, I recorded the trailing digit for each candidate or line item. For instance, if Strategic Vision had Barack Obama beating John McCain 48-43 in a particular state, I’d record a tally in the 8 column and another in the 3 column. Or if they had voters opposing a particular policy 50-45, I’d record a tally in the 0 column (for 50) and another in the 5 column (for 45). I did not include “non-response responses” like “other” or “undecided”, nor did I include a tally for third-party candidates in races beteween the two major parties. I also excluded party primaries in which more than two candidates were listed, and approval questions for which more than two choices were provided.
…This data is not random at all. For instance, the trailing digit was ‘8′ on 676 occasions, almost 60 percent more often than the 431 times that it was ‘1′. Over a sample of more than 5,000 data points, such an outcome occurring by chance alone would be an incredible fluke — millions to one against….
One of two things seems to have happened, then.
One possibility is that there is some intrinsic, mathematical reason that certain trailing digits are more likely to come up than others. This is certainly possible — and in fact, it would be somewhat likely if the polling data that we were looking at were homogeneous — McCain versus Obama polls in Ohio, for instance.
But Strategic Vision’s polls cover a wide array of topics: Presidential horse race numbers in any of a dozen or so states, senate and gubernatorial polling, primary polling, approval ratings of various kinds, polling on issues like the war in Iraq, and more abstract questions such as whether voters think that ‘experience’ or ‘change’ is the more important quality in a Presidential candidate. No one type of question, in no one state, represents more than a relatively small fraction of the sample. Under those circumstances, I can’t think of any reason why the trailing digit wouldn’t approach being random — although there absolutely might be reasons that I haven’t thought of.
But this data is not random. It’s not close to random. It’s not close to close. Which brings up the other possibility: Strategic Vision is cooking the books. And whoever is doing so is doing a pretty sloppy job. They’d seem to have a strong, unconscious preference for numbers ending in ‘7′, for instance, as opposed to those ending in ‘6′. They tend to go with round numbers that end in ‘5′ or ‘0′ slightly too often. And they much prefer numbers with high trailing digits like 49 and 38 to those with low ones like 51 and 42.
I haven’t really seen anyone approach polling data like this before, and I certainly haven’t done so myself. So, we cannot rule out the possibility that there is some mathematical rationale for this that I haven’t thought of. But it looks really, really bad. There is a substantial possibility — far from a certainty — that much of Strategic Vision’s polling over the past several years has been forged.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
FPT (apologies temporarily offthread)
394.There’s loads more that i’d call knife crime that never gets counted at all. For example a fave thing of gangsta types is to go into a shop and very obviously steal something but it’s not shoplifting as they make a big display of taking a can of drink or something and eating / drinking it in plain view. The shopkeepers know the score so they just let it slide as it’s not worth getting stabbed over.
There’s thousands of incidents like that every day where there’s something that isn’t in itself knife crime but which revolves around intimidation based on the implicit threat of lethal violence.
It’s completely normal in the areas the police don’t police.
what about Kingston ?
FPT - Thank you, Plato.
7 - This is quite astonishing, it’s akin to Mike saying that BPIX just make up figures. I’ll be interested to see how this develops.
Not much to disagree with there Sean. If the GE is held at the same time as the locals, I do think that the tories will win some wards they haven’t won in decades in parts of Croydon, Southwark and Lambeth, Lewisham and parts of East London.
Of course, if the tories win the GE, that will probably be the high point for them in local government.
?
Tory Crime Figures.
Crime in London is falling
16-4-2009 182
The Mayor Boris Johnson has welcomed new Met Police figures suggesting crime in London is at its lowest level for a decade, with significant reductions in knife and gun crime and youth violence.
Overall there were 18,000 fewer offences in London between 2007/8 and 2008/9, including a cut in youth violence of almost 10 per cent and a drop in serious violent crime of 2.4 per cent. Gun crime has reduced by almost 26 per cent, knife crime has dropped by 13 per cent, murder has been cut by more than four per cent and robbery is down 12 per cent.
The latest annual crime statistics from the Metropolitan Police have revealed that between April 2008 and March 2009, crime in London fell to its lowest level for 10 years.
The Mayor of London Boris Johnson said:
‘I am encouraged by what seems to be a promising trend. It appears that the huge efforts and fresh initiatives over the last year are delivering results. We are making some headway in a number of areas, especially gun and violent crime, and it is particularly heartening to see a reduction in youth violence. But crime is still cause for considerable concern for too many Londoners and I will never be complacent on this issue.
@11: “probably be the high point for them in local government.”
That’s in interesting point, and I expect that most will expect that. But is it just possible that they could make some more gains (if only a few) in the next council elections, if the Labour party are still busy warring amongst themselves?
12 - link
http://www.london.gov.uk/view_press_release.jsp?releaseid=21698
11 Agree next year is likely the high point, unless of course Labour do fracture after their loss and that feeds through into locals but even then it would probably be smaller parties and independents who get the benefit.
Would be good though to see a greater Conservative presence in the boroughs you mention - as an aside just re-read some Wodehouse books (I like them because they are so realistic said HM the Queen Mother before WWII) and the mention of Conservative MPs in East London really brings how the demographics of politics has changed in a century.
O/T Polly writes Gordon’s resignation speech for him.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/25/gordon-brown-resignation-labour-conference
UkPaul — Here is how it began, as per Pollster’s Mark Blumenthal:
In the wake of a public reprimand from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) for failing to disclose “essential facts” about his company’s methods, and after more than a year of doing his best to avoid public comment, Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson now has much to say and is threatening legal action. …
Yesterday, James Verrinder of the website Research reports that Johnson now “vows legal action” against AAPOR and some of its members:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategic_vision_a_bigger_stor.php
***
BTW, I’ve watched some YouTube videos of Glenn Beck, and you were right: he’s nuts.
It’s a pity to see Labour making gains, *any* gains in London.
Since it’s now very likely the London boroughs will be elected on the same day as the general, there’s a good chance that will sweep anti-Labour feeling far deeper into the London councils than ever. Be interesting to see what that could mean for my own fair borough, Tower Hamlets. Especially having as it does a battleground three way marginal seat (Poplar and Limehouse) bang in the middle of it.
10. Well, Strategic Vision is already in trouble with the AAPOR for being completely unresponsive, sounds much worse than BPIX. Plus, they have other commercial activities than just polling.
http://www.mrweb.com/drno/news10599.htm
14 You said it was tough looking after twin babies - how do you find the time to post on here?
Serious question as I look after small furries who take up about 5hrs a day re feeding/changing litter trays/cleaning trays and washing floors-beds/giving medications/washing bowls-beds/socialising=friendly kitties…
Shurely humans are more demanding on the attention front?
Just got in from a whole day spent tugging a donkey up and down a mountain. This is not a sexual metaphor. I am in the Cevennes.
Very pretty and rugged it is, too.
Re MartinDayGoesNutsoGate, I have an anecdote that may be relevant.
It concerns a friend of mine’s wife who once similarly lost it.
She is forty something, highly intelligent, has a senior role in publishing, notably successful, metropolitan liberal New Labour voter etc etc
One day at Tescos some black woman was causing a huge queue by kicking up a pointless fuss with the checkout girl.
The row went on and on until - suddenly, in front of her husband - the posh Islington liberal women turned into a Klansman, shouting at the black customer: “you effing nigger bitch just effing hurry up” etc etc (apologies for the coarseness but it is not gratuitous).
My friend stared at his wife in total amazement. All those years, lurking not far inside his serenely PC spouse was, totally unbeknownst to him - a tiny bit of a Nazi.
Of course she got over it, and apologised - and the incident hasn’t been mentioned since.
But the point was made - she was a little bit racist as well as being impeccably liberal. And I firmly believe this is true of all of us: racism is deeply rooted in the human psyche, therefore, given the right circumstances it can emerge from almost anyone - black brown yellow white or Tartan. Especially if they are drunk, or driving, or drunk driving, or drunk and depressed and unemployed and somewhat unstable.
Anyhow. I didn’t read Martin’s rants. I’m glad I missed them. But I hope he is OK and apologises to everyone and can then be restored to pb sanity.
We may be one of his few ways of reaching the world - who knows. Shutting the door on him forever would be harsh and wrong.
393 FPT- If Polly thinks Brown is resigning, I guess we now know that Brown will be staying put for a while.
Look, if we are going to bother HAVING a PB.com gawd (ie, Ezio) you are going to have to get His name right every time!
EZIO!
Moving post at the end of previous thread by ukpaul re: Martin Day
Interesting nuggets of information from the obnoxious Kevin Maguire
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2009/09/labour-brown-del-tory-turned
including
Great topic - my neck of the woods for a chance!
I’ve not the time for an analysis to match Sean’s but here’s my thoughts on south London at least:
* Bexley and Bromley will be easy Conservative holds, though Labour may make minor recovery in Bexley given the former Tory leader’s recent woes. Labour stand a good chance of being wiped out in Bromley.
* Croydon will be tighter than you think - Labour having been been getting quite a lot of traction thanks to Mr Pelling, but still have no penetration in the south of the borough. The Lib Dems will fail to take any seats again.
* Greenwich will be only a close Labour hold - Conservative activity in Eltham is reaching insane levels and they should gain the parliamentary seat too, but Labour remains strong elsewhere.
*Kingston will be an easy Lib Dem hold, as will Richmond despite Zac’s millions (conversely, it’s the Kingston wards of Richmond Park constituency which are most at risk).
*Lambeth will most likely go NOC and stay that way for at least two cycles, breaking the pattern of falling one way or another for the past couple of decades. It does remain Labour’s best chance of holding on to an inner London council after Greenwich, however. The Greens to gain one, the Tories to hold on against the LDs.
*Lewisham will go even further NOC - all the non-Labour parties have effectively ganged-up on them - with a good possibility of the Lib Dems actually picking up a majority. More likely is Labour losing the mayoralty to the Lib Dems. The Greens could well pick up another ward here but will get nowhere - again - in the parliamentary contest.
*Merton - I know very little about this borough (who does?), but agree with Sean that it will probably be a tight contest. The Lib Dems may pick up its first seat for a while here, as could the Greens apparently, if reports are to be believed.
*Southwark will probably remain NOC, but don’t be surprised if the LDs bounce back from their fire disaster earlier this year. The Conservatives will have a near miss in Rotherhithe, but otherwise standstill
*Sutton will be a copper-bottomed Lib Dem hold.
*Wandsworth will be copper-bottomed Conservative hold.
Where is the Martin Day goes nuts stuff?
This could be good reading for a lazy friday night for EZIO!
“… for a change.” D’oh!
7- I guess Strategic Vision won’t be able to avoid confronting this highly publicized accusation, unless they’re willing to simply pack their bags and go out of business. It will be very interesting to see if they can respond to this.
I dedicate this song to tim:
http://open.spotify.com/track/154e2dw3T8BZTHg4Vt18JY
20 Total common sense-although I am shocked someone who sounds an archetypal Islington Guardianista could say that! I confess to have having said of a tiresome Irishman;
‘I wish the stupid mick would f*** off and build a road,that’s all he knows’
Incredibly politically incorrect (and I am one eighth Irish)-someone just ‘pressed the wrong button’ and I had a mad moment-as a human I feel entitled to!
15. Re the nausea invoking piece from the Norwegian Blue.I did find this surprising though.
The British detest their politicians until they are powerless, when the most unexpected previous figures of fun and hate turn overnight into national treasures.
But most ‘national treasures’ are stuffed, put in a glass case, held in some dark warehouse and periodically put on display in the British Museum for students and tourists to gawk at. Surely Polly isn’t recommending that for Gordon?
;o)
23- Thanks Philippe, I missed it and indeed it is a very good post from ukpaul. I wish I could express my own difficulty to know how to react so nicely.
29 - The link doesn’t work.
Is it something by Peter Framptons old band The Herd?
29. Coxall old boy, you wouldn’t happen to have a spare spotify invitation going would you?
28 Stars of interest how have the national GOP helped Christie? Must be a tricky line between helping him overcome Corzine’s financial firepower and avoiding helping Corzine stick the run by out of staters tag on Christie that Corzine would clearly love to be able to put on him.
@34:
NO INVITATIONS LEFT. Bah.
26. “Where is the Martin Day goes nuts stuff?”
deleted
33. You never know it could be this….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skU-jBFzXl0
@33:
No, it’s a tribute to your new-found racism.
23
Reading UkPaul’s post reminds me of In Cold Blood and the struggle Capote has rationalising the horrific crime, with his sympathy for the killer. It’s a human trait more valuable than the cold condemnation more commonly expressed. And it fcuked Capote up.
25
I think you may be surprised in a few places if the locals are the same day as the GE.
30
I’ve an uncle who’s had problems with the pop. He’s also Irish. And Catholic. He once got so pissed with some bloke he started screaming about paddy this, taig that, despite spending his younger days scrapping with anyone who dared use such terms.
Has Martin Day gone over the edge?
Hope everythings OK and he returns soon.
Excellent post Sean.
Agree on all except Richmond.
If the Conservatives are gaing Richmond Park on a big turnout (say 66-70%)will that not impact the wards in the seat on the Borough Council?
Oh and nice to see the return of Sean’s Fridat Slot. I hope these become more frequent as the election approaches.
For tim, from Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1P4_YCFtkQ
35- The national party is spending millions in New Jersey to help Christie, primarily through advertisements attacking Corzine. The out-of-state tag is probably less detrimental in New Jersey than any other state since almost everyone here lives either in the New York City metro area or the Philadelphia metro area. The idea of crossing state lines is so commonplace that the state almost doesn’t have an identity of its own and there is little stigma atttached to out-of-state money. For Christie, the only issue with fundraising is how to obtain more money, not which state it’s coming from.
2009 Gubernatorial Races
NJ : “Corzine Calls Christie a Fat Guy Who Can’t Drive “ lol Desperate? No, this was Corzine’s main message from the very beginning of the campaign…
VA : McDonnell is attacking Deeds Creigh Deeds’s negative attacks…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2009/09/mcdonnell_releases_two_new_tv.html
SeanT speak for yourself. I was so hoping to stay out of this but I have done at various times all permutations of alcoholism, unemployment and clinical depression without seeing any sign at all of my inner racist child wanting to come out and post vile abuse of ethnic minorities on the internet. And if I had, none of those factors would be any excuse.
BTW whence this theory he is clever at photoshop? he can’t do anything with it you couldn’t do by cut and pasting physical photographs with child-friendly scissors and a pritt stick, and photographing the result. He has wasted a lot of money if he’s shelled out for the full program.
sorry if this is out of kilter with the prevailing atmosphere of {{{hugs}}} all round.
40 I am as sober as a judge as we speak-and rarely say much when tipsy nowadays ie 12-1 am when I return home from my local.
My general point is we all say things on the spur of the moment!
45 Thanks. Of interest how did Christie make his name? I know you said he put away a few State politicians. Any high profile ones stand out. Also was he known as a GOP man before he became US Attorney.
11 I agree that it will probably their high point in local government in London. Outside London, I suspect the Conservatives will fall back slightly. 2011, the likely first year of a Conservative government, ought to see big opposition gains in local elections, because the Conservatives will be defending seats won in 2007. In all likelihood, that will be the first set of big Conservative losses since 1996.
15 Yes, it’s funny when you read about Conservatives winning seats like West Lambeth, and Bethnal Green North West. But, the whole of inner London was far more heavily populated then than now, and so had a much larger middle class element in some areas. Also, the business ratepayers’ vote helped the Conservatives in all city centres, and the City returned 2 MPs up till 1948.
25 I think that the London Assembly elections suggest fairly comfortable Labour holds in Lambeth and Lewisham and very narrow Conservative wins in Sutton and Kingston.
46- Philippe, I watched this embarrassing video of Deeds from immediately after his recent debate flipflop on taxes, and I am starting to believe again that he won’t manage to win this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE6d36a2gso
47. As I understand it, Martin Day was badly beaten up by some black guys a couple of years ago.
If that happened to you, and then you also had his *issues*, a certain racism might indeed enter your inner discourse. No?
Anyone who says they have never had a racist thought is a liar or a fool.
Will the BNP really do well in Barking and Dagenham? I get the impression most of their councillors have been pretty ineffective, and R Barnbrook was suspended and censured yesterday for “inventing” three local murders reported on his website/ blog or whatever (don’t really understand these interweb technicalities).
44 Martin
Is that the Grumpyoldtw@ version?
49- His whole reputation comes from his stint as a U.S. attorney, and there is no more fertile ground for a U.S. attorney to build a solid crime-fighting reputation than New Jersey! If it weren’t for that experience, I’m sure he wouldn’t have even been a credible primary candidate, let alone the nominee.
odd thing the internet - while I was watching the Lib Dem conference I thought “I wonder what SBS’s take would be on this” and now I’m worried about Martin Day.
Sober, in both senses, Martin can make very good political points, less sober the anti Lib Dem rants can be amusing and do break the tedium in some threads. I’ve been lucky, only had to sign on for 6 months after dropping out of uni and getting a good job but remember a period in the middle when no invites to interviews arrived being very down and not wanting (not having the cash really) to go out. Sat there with cheap beer watching the telly. I’ve experience of people, room mate at school and my mother and through her met many other people, going down into the black pit of despair and depression and I only hope it was just things getting too much for Martin. UK Paul says what I can’t.
47 I too have encountered severe alocohol abuse 1997-9 (the two years after my grandparents died within 6 months of each other-they were mum and dad from age 6 months,so I can be excused for going ape,I feel.
BTW,I hate the word ‘alcoholic’-it is so-o overused!
(So many are mere ‘pissheads’,who drink every evening,but never in the day-such is my pattern)
I have suffered depression,neuroses,have over-come being diagnosed with Asbergers aged 26,and lead a fairly full life.
I do fear something is seriosuly wrong with Martin Day- he has had such a terrible time lately (cat torched,threatened with having to work for his benefit),that as this was his main social outlet,sooner or later we were going to cop the blast-and oh boy,did we last night?!
Nevertheless,I feel Martin being permanently barred would be overkill
23 Yes, well said ukpaul on the last thread. Martin used to have his own blog, which one could link to from here, but which no longer seems to be live.
Presumably Mike has Martin’s email address should someone wish to try and help Martin, failing which one or two PBers (Easterross perhaps who have tried to help Martin previously in his search for employment may have his contact details.
P (WHM):
Oops, my bad. Just relating the story, not suggesting you might be a bit worse for wear.
50 SF:
Agree. Tories have an astonishing number of councillors in some places.
Good grief this site is descending into something akin to an AA session.
57 Car NOT cat torched,before Plato goes into orbit!
PPP’s Tom Jensen on the SV Affair:
I think that all companies doing public polling should make their topline demographics and crosstabs easily publicly available. It should be right there on your website. …
I could leave PPP, start Tom Jensen Polling, put out a bunch of topline numbers the day before an election that just copied the Pollster, RCP, or Nate Silver predictions and be one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. That would be pretty darn easy and anyone could do it. And that’s why public pollsters should hold themselves to a higher standard and also be held to a higher standard by the media. I don’t think the press should report on any polls that they can’t see the party ID breakdown for, etc.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/09/my-thoughts-on-strategic-vision.html
47 - Agreede, and he’s got loads of form of the same stuff.
I realised one night what he was about when he started to claim he knew of a racist murder by Asian guys in Stoke of a black guy, and that he lived there at the time.
He’d made it up, the black guy was killed when he intervened to help a. Asian cabbie by a white racist gang.
55 I’m sure. Any Dollar Bill Jefferson’s stand out? Speaking of Dollar Bill I think I saw the Guilty verdict come in. How many years though?
50 Will the results be skewed by hard fought campaigns at the General in areas unused to them? Thinking especially of Brent Central and Dagenham and Rainham.
Thanks Stars for the video!
60. Good, I feel a need to SHARE!
53. It constantly amazes me how utterly shite the BNP are. Given the material they have to work with - mass unwanted immigration, severe recession, hideous PC lefty government, Muslim suicide bombers, the horrible failure of multiculturalism, a huge political void on the right left empty by all parties - they should be hoovering up the votes and putting MPs in Westminster.
Somehow they contrive to screw it up, almost every time. e.g. Why make up murders when the newspapers are full of genuine murders by identifiably ethnic minorities which could be cleverly exploited?
Thank God they are idiots.
60 you misunderstand…
Off Topic (quite abit)
“Gordon Brown can at last emerge a hero, by giving a resignation speech at the party conference. Here’s one I’ve drafted for him”
Polly (for it is she)then proceeds to waffle inanely producing 12 paragraphs of total pap, fortunately in the comments, LatimerAlder is to hand and has condense it to a single sentence.
The Guardian, it’s fast becoming my favorite comic.
53 Unfortunately the local CLP looks in little better shape. IIRC a number of their Councillors have been barred from standing again. Sadly what the BNP do looks irrelevant. It is all about whether Barking Labour can pull itself together.
“Much shouting at the box these days by a Gordon Brown who views the BBC as little more than an arm of the Conservative propaganda machine.”
Brown may have a better human rights record than Stalin, but his paranoia is about equal I’d say.
Excellent Friday slot as ever, Sean. I don’t know if you’re a Londoner, but I think that the Tories will do better in Ealing than you perhaps thing. It’s just a feeling, but I think their opposition to the third runway will really help them there and in Hounslow. The issue has died in Richmond, though, since Mixed Mode was ruled out.
The unpopularity of the troughing local Labour MPs in Hounslow, Alan and Ann Kenn, must also weigh with people, even though, as you say, people often split their tickets between locals and nationals.
Can’t agree that Richmond is secure for the LibDems. There is a lot of local dissatisfaction with issues like parking and planning (Twickenham Riverside being one point) and St. Vincent’s proposed tax on ‘mansions’ isn’t going down too well. Education has become a fractious local issue as well. What makes you say it will be an ‘easy hold’, Sean?
Is there any evidence to show how people vote when they cast votes for two different elections on the same day?
Do most people vote for the same party in both elections?
66 Their site has a different take on the three “murders” but whatever the truth is this incident does highlight the lack of political experience they have. Most of their activists look like they’re new to it all.
[7] - With respect to 538 and Strategic Vision
I have to say that is an astonishing allegation to make without first of all generating the same data from another pollster to compare it with. It diminishes Nate, in my view, to not have made that check first.
66/73 - Look North on BBC1 tonight had a report on the BNP and how they are campaigning in Barnsley.
You get the feeling they aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed, and struggle with facts.
hello?
75 See 69 sadly I think those points will matter little next to what condition the mainstream parties opposing them in each area are in.
72 - Liverpool is a classic example of mixed voted. In one General Election which was held on the same day as the locals (sorry, can’t remember which) Liberal ward councillors were getting nearly as many votes each, than the Parliamentary candidate got in the constituency (Walton) which consisted of 4 or 5 wards
75 Some of them have,well,evolved a bit less than the rest of us,and still need all their thought-power to walk and breathe simultaneously (apart from sore scraping knuckles! :lol:)
Without reading back I’m guessing that Marty Day has seen fit to get overwound.
I remember once discussing off thread with a well known PB’er about the fact that this site has a real basic social purpose for some. Nervermind the debate, the anorakery, or the occasional good betting information, this place provides a distraction, a place to let off steam, but for some it literally provides an outlet and sense of community…a real sense of community.
I’ve had plenty of arguments on here. I’d like to think I know when I’m dealing with someone who I just think is a bit of an arse (or just plain nasty) and someone with whom there is a bigger background story. Whilst anyone who does something downright offensive needs pulling up, I have noticed how many people on this forum do pick up on those people who might have a wider background story and give them a bit of a break. Some engage, sometimes assertively, but do it with tolerance, some just quietly tolerate.
Its a remarkable thing that, with nothing but words on screen to guide, how many of the people who make up this site can spot those situations and react with an instinctive sense of benevolence.
If those people are a sample of the country we live in then we havent got a bad little place, both on here and out there.
72
Yes. People vote differently in GEs and locals (not all obviously). For example, in the recent Euros/locals, most areas saw different results in % terms on each ballot. I posted earlier that the tories got 35% in the locals in Bedford, but only 30% in the Euros.
Having the GE at the same time as the locals reduces this effect. Someone like RodCrosby, Sean Fear, Mark Senior might have a figure to hand to express this difference.
75. Maybe so, but then again being able to talk on the same level to the people Labour betrayed isn’t a handicap overall as long as you’ve got a few hofficer types as well.
78 Patrick, I may have missed it, but your political journey from Labour to the LibDems in your name - are we to take it you have given up on the LibDems and are back wandering in the political wilderness again?
52 (a) no. (b) how awful, but i wonder what he had said to them? (c) i did not make the claim you mention in your final paragraph.
“If those people are a sample of the country we live in then we havent got a bad little place, both on here and out there.”
Not sure the country is:
- 80% male
- 100% computer literate
- probably 20-30% political activists
It’s also not 60-70% or so Tory, though I wish it were!
Why would Labour not go backwards from 2006 - by a good distance? All the polls suggest as much, and if the GE is on the same day many people who didn’t vote in 2006 will vote this time, surely helping the tories?
Can’t believe Labour will make any substantive gains at all, the odd ward maybe with VERY local factors, but that must be the limit.
(unless it’s all change between now and then of course for whatever reason)
81 One of the most smug,condescending people I have met was the local Tory candidate in my ward in the 2007 locals-she came across as a schoolteacher with her dissing casinos and their customers (of whom I am an occasional)-when she started about ‘nice things for families’ it took huge self-control to NOT tirade that 1950s mummy,daddy,2.4 sprogs were the only families she cared about!
We parted,surprisingly,before the fur really flew!!
84 If you read 88 you will see my May 2007 take of the Tories-I admit they have travelled far since,but if I was going to bet with myself,at the nth degree I would say,albeit holding my nose,its about 1/2 or 1/3 that somehow,I will end up voting Labour- more to bless the new leader post GE defeat than Gordon Brown,I surmise!
86. Its not what people are, its what they do, its how they act when it matters.
75- Well, at least one of the two will come out of this looking like a total discredited ass, either Silver or SV.
88 I guess you were really attacted to her…
81. Quite true.
I have come to think of pb as my village-on-the-move: a place I can go, wherever I am in the world, and feel instantly at home: with the same old faces, the same lovable old characters, even a friendly vicar (Peter the Punter), a dippy old crone (Mark Senior), and a weird dwarvish loner (tim).
That’s probably why I am prepared to cut Martin some slack: cause I feel I have known him for some years now. And therefore I have a sense of his persona as a troubled and maybe vulnerable character - not without brains - who maybe needs gentler handling than the weird babbling sex dwarf (tim).
When you get to know someone on here it’s hard to be totally and brutally dismissive, as you would to a genuine stranger.
BTW, my last post is for Timothy. Why is the numbering always screwed up here these days?!?!?!
And with one bound he is free!!
Quite flattering, Mike, to be included in your general lockdown of the site, when the BIG RED BUTTON gets pressed…
I wonder who else is a member of that select club.
88/89
What you’ve experienced there is the extremely poor candidate selection our politics have. Too many people, who have too little interest in society in the widest sense, make it as a candidate.
You are left with chancers who play a game come election time, armed with a few slogans, ready smile and team of volunteers.
It affects all parties. Fortunately, such people rarely get to real influence, except maybe toward the fag-end of government. If you’re a floating voter, support those you think will change the system, even in small ways.
89. Patrick Hammer.
I see you’ve changed your handle again!
93. Not to be pedantic, but I think when you describe someone as a “babbling sex dwarf”, prefacing it with the adjective “weird” is probably redundant.
93 - Isn’t it nice
Sugar and spice
Luring disco dollies
To a life of vice
Sex dwarf
Isn’t it nice
Luring disco dollies to a life of vice
Its a chapter heading you could use.
95. Er, come again?
92 She was not unattractive,but her hectoring,holier-than-thou manner ,coming from a male voice,might have invoked me to,at the very least tell them to ‘F*** off’,and possibly worse.
No offence,thats me! (Hope after the Hammers probably lose away at Man City on Monday we can get the ‘gettable ‘points in October/November,and bubble (pardon the pun!!) up the table!
Sorry…..
I’ve just noticed that in the effort to deal with the situation that’s been dominating the day I accidentally blocked several regulars from posting.
It should be all fixed now.
96 She was elected-and I will admit the 2007-date Conservative council of Bournemouth Borough Council has been quite workman -like and got on with the job in hand,so credit where’s it due,they have been reasonably effective
102 - Any response from Martin Day to your email?
100. I couldn’t post for most of today for no obvious reason.
Bit like an imaginary scene from “Silence of the Lambs”, I suppose.
“We’ve got trouble in cell block 11, chief!”
“Forget it, but quadruple the guard on Lecter…”
102..if only it had been you know who…..
89 The pb.com community will wait with bated breath on election day for the Patrick exit poll of one!
Apologies for my 97, missed a post or two! D’oh…
Kingston and Richmond are interesting - the council and parliamentary seats are not the same . Richmond council takes in Twickenham - but Zac does not have to win there - he gets North Kingston -solid Tory territory . Zac could win easily in Richmond park and the lib dems could still retain Richmond council . Ed Davey should win Kingston - but the lib dems could lose the council this time around . My assessment is the lib dems are under a lot more pressure in this whole region than anyone realises .
Andrewg, you forget, Seant has spent many years being paid by the word.
105. Ah. Well you should be flattered. You’re so inherently menacing you get interned at the first hint of civil strife. I have been able to post at will all day, like a totally unthreatening poof.
England on course to beat Sri Lanka….
111 - England set to win 2 one day matches in a row, when did that last happen?
test
RodCrosby
Now you’re about, can you help with a query upthread, see my post at 82 and TSE’s at 73.
53 The local Labour Party is even worse.
67 Yes, it is amazing how incompetent they are. If Labour wanted to invent a moronic racist party from scratch, to rally their supporters against, the BNP is what they’d come up with.
73 Quite a lot, in fact. Robert Waller has often pointed out that the Liberals’ vote share was, on average, 8% better in local than Parliamentary elections, in 1979, in seats where they were held on the same day.
81 Martin Day plainly has problems, that need to be sorted. For most of us, that is something to feel sorry for him about. For one or two, it is a source of endless merriment.
114 - Thanks for that Sean.
110 - Mike knows you’re a pussycat.
The internet persona of part phallus/part falange fools no one.
112 200-4…. 13 to get in 6 plus overs
First ever Question Time now being shown on BBC Parliament.
Sweet baby jesus, we’ve done it.
Okay, we have paused long enough to examine our collective conscience about Martin Day.
So if the Outside World would like to resume spinning again… Where were we? Ah yes, Baroness Scotland. Can someone please start the Countdoom of Doom ticking again? Maybe some tasty tidbits from Max Clifford. Another revelation or two about The Weirdness of Gordon, that keeps us happy. And something from the Telegraph that isn’t a wanky old rehash from months back, if you don’t mind.
Oh, and a poll would be good, if you can rustle one up… Ta.
114 see 65.
So are we on standby for Operation Story Make Go Away Now again this evening or are we happy it was brothers Brogan and Pierce attempt to sell their paperbacks?
Should be a resignation tonight surely, something, anyhting?????!
scores are now level….
118 you are ahead of the bbc website…
123 - Yeah, I’m watching it on Sky.
OK, having ascended and descended an entire Cevenne, today, I am knacked and I shall turn in. On the great issue of the moment - Martin Day - I do hope he returns, unharmed, and profusely apologises, and is pressed to the warm capacious bosom of pb, thereby to heal.
Shalom.
I can’t quite believe we did that.
118 Gordon’s Enfeebling Ray of Wankiness musn’t reach as far as Jo’burg. Yay!!
Given the paucity of news tonight I found this dialogue between Sunder Katwala (late of the PHI100) and Freddie Sayers (Politicshome Editor) becuase it seems Sunder is concerned that the PHI100 will now be imbalanced because he and his compatriots threw their dummies out of their prams (yep go figure!). Any way these comments caught my eye firstly from Sunder:
Another possibility would be for PoliticsHome to attempt a significant rapprochement with its critics - for example, by revealing more about the board structure; setting out what guarantees of editorial independence were written into the deal, and once again putting in place organisational structures which credibly protect these.
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/09/should-politicshome-suspend-its-insider.html
From Freddie in response:
As it happens, the Phi100 process has been due for a refesh for some time, and we will certainly be looking to make it more dynamic, interesting and transparent very soon.
But in the mean time I cannot see a case for suspending all research - it has never pretended to be a perfect representation of any known universe. It remains a very impressive ‘weather vane’ that puts in number form trends that many of us in Westminster might already find obvious, but that provides our readers across the country and beyond with a unique insight into the politics of the day. I think it opens up knowledge beyond the corridors of Westminster to anyone who is interested - and I am proud of it
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/response_to_phi100_methodology_questions.html
Well it’s looks like Sunder’s ideas have fallen on stoney ground….
120 In Dagenham & Rainham, I think that’s so. Labour is going to face a degree of competition that it’s never experienced before, at Parliamentary level, and this is bound to spill over into the local elections.
Brent Central is already keenly fought at local level, so I think that a tight Parliamentary contest won’t make much difference.
There’s an Archbishop on the first ever Question Time, I’d love to see John Sentamu on the current series, i think he’d be fab.
Martin, if you are reading this out there, I and all of PB wish you all the best.
If you don’t return, I’ll stand in Sheffield Hallam as a member of the Ezio Party.
May your God bless you.
Ezio.
127 - Please dont ever use the words Gordon and w*nk in the same sentence ever again.
Mind bleach!
113. We kind of covered this a few threads back, on the ludicrous “study” which claimed the LibDems would lose out under PR.
The LDs have historically done best in the locals, and worst in the Euros, both attended of course by very low turnouts.
Their GE performance, with much higher turnouts, has averaged 19.9% since Feb 1974.
As Sean says they LDs often do considerably better in individual seats in the locals than the generals, even when held on the same day, as in 1979.
Other people will no doubt provide their own local examples better than I can.
becuase=because doh!
128 Sunder & Co really are a bit silly.
One of the things I’ve noticed about the “Liberal Conspiracy” blog is how few articles published there have anything to do with Liberalism. They’re usually either attacking the Conservatives, or attacking Labour for not being Left-wing enough.
133 - Thanks Rod.
German Election : Is an CDU/CSU-SPD coalition more likely than a CDU-FDP?
If so, then the 2.6 available on betfair looks like value…
BusinessWeek : “Why Merkel’s Tax-Cut Pledge Is a Hard Sell”
…One reason that the CDU-FDP tax-cut pitch hasn’t caught on with voters is that so many people receive government pensions, unemployment benefits, free university tuition, or other public largesse. To these voters, a promise to cut taxes sounds more like a threat to trim benefits.
In addition, voters may doubt—correctly—that the center-right can simultaneously cut taxes and balance the budget so soon after pumping billions into the economy via the country’s cash-for-clunkers scheme and other stimulus programs.
“Everybody would like lower taxes,” says Martin Lueck, an economist at UBS (UBS) who expects the CDU and FDP to win a slim majority. “With the state throwing money at everything, people simply don’t believe what the CDU and FDP are telling them.”
…The global economic crisis, which slammed the export-oriented German economy, seems to have only deepened Germans’ attachment to a strong social safety net. Hundreds of thousands of workers who might have been axed are still collecting paychecks thanks to “short work” programs, in which the government partly compensates employees for lost wages when companies cut their hours. The program has been widely used by automakers such as Daimler (DAI) in lieu of layoffs. At 8.3% in August, unemployment in Germany is lower than in the U.S., and has risen only modestly from January, when the rate was 7.8%, according to seasonally adjusted figures. But some 5% of the total workforce is on short work and not counted as unemployed, according to UBS.
Merkel’s difficulty in rallying support for a center-right platform illustrates a deeper, long-term trend. German voters have shifted back to the left. Ironically, the trend has its roots in pro-market reforms carried out by Schröder, who led a center-left Social Democrat-Green Party government from 1998 to 2005. The tax cuts and other reforms boosted growth and led to a dramatic decline in unemployment, but cutbacks in jobless benefits and other social welfare programs unsettled many ordinary Germans. Many Social Democrats felt the party betrayed its pro-labor roots under Schröder and they defected to the Left Party. As a result, the Left Party has emerged as a strong fifth party and upset the political balance of power. Led by Oskar Lafontaine, a former SPD chairman turned left-wing populist, the Left Party will probably capture some 10% of the nationwide vote, polls indicate. That will make it much more difficult for either of the traditional partnerships—CDU/FDP or SPD/Green—to muster a majority in parliament.
…Chancellor Merkel … seems at pains not to alarm voters with anything that sounds like painful reform. In a plea to voters posted on YouTube, she repeats the tax-cut pledge but also describes the CDU as “the party of the social-market economy”—a term that to Germans means capitalism with a strong social safety net. “We stand for the compatibility of business and employee interests,” she says.
http://www.businessweek.com/print/globalbiz/content/sep2009/gb20090925_062185.htm
I have more than $3k on Merkel as the next Chancellor @ an average of 1.15, and 50$, only, on the CDU/CSU-FDP to be the next coalition in power @ 1.9 — cause of the analysis claiming that they need only 45% of the vote to form the new ruling government.
Question Time is so much better when there is no applause from the crowd.
This first edition seems so much more high-minded than the populist soundbites we have now…
133 I didn’t read the study. I think it’s likely that the Lib Dems would do worse than at present, in terms of vote share, if Parliamentary elections were held under PR, but they’d clearly make gains in terms of seats.
re 102. I’ve had no response from Martin to my email.
This read simply: - “Are you OK mate?
People on the site are a bit worried. Drop me a line if you have a moment. Many thanks.”
Looks like, according to Gordon, the G20 has ended Boom and Bust.
lol, Gordon has got another G20 meeting in Scotland for November. lmao
Bob Hope on the 1st QT.
@135:
LibCon presumably is using the American definition of “liberal”, because it seems to have nothing to do with the usual British meaning.
140 - Thanks Mike.
On the USA:
I have no idea if anyone has referenced this but a recent PPP poll showing how candidates from the GOP might stack up against Obama puts their leading option as…Mike Huckabee 48/41 down against Obama.
The key issue is that Obama’s leads amongst indepndents is anything between 11% & 19% depending on who PPP put up as a theoretical candidate against the President. What is missing from the GOP slate is someone who can truly take that centre ground. I’d suggest that, with the exception of Romney who I think can reinvent himself for a second tilt the known charcters such simply wont cut it. If Obama is vulnerable the GOP need someone who currently is less of a known currency.
Given all that though, Huckabee clearly has and seems to be able to hold on to a solid block of voters wityhin the GOP and has the likeability factor. By dint of that, he’s got plenty of reasons to run again for the nomination. Does that make the 10/1 around for him value?
Jeez, is that QT from 1979 or something? Teddy Taylor looks like he’s just lost Cathcart. Worlock was in his prime [I remember going to Lime Street in 1976 with my mum and 100,000 others to sing "Faith of our Fathers" to welcome him as our Archbishop.] Michael Foot wasn’t yet Labour leader?, and that Irish bird is definitely do-able…
All terribly civilised and good humoured too.
Look at how this country has changed… and WEEP…
And now the media turns to the Labour Conference. From the FT:
Another MP said the Brighton conference would be a “miserable” event, with low attendance by MPs. Another said: “People are saying they haven’t got the heart to go and pretend everything is OK. They have their heads down and are more worried about protecting themselves in their own constituencies
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a00b2d6a-aa0a-11de-a3ce-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
147 - Yes 1979. Is the first ever QT.
Philippe - I think CDU-FDP is still more likely than a continuation of the Grand Coalition, but it’s very tight - only 1-2% in it. However, your money on Merkel continuing looks safe (accidents with buses excepted).
Latest German polls:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
- compare CDU+FDP with the other named parties, ignoring Sonstige (others who won’t make it) to get the picture.
Isn’t it interesting listening to these early discussions on secure employment versus employment creation.
Such a discussion would seem passe now.
“Mr Brown will use his conference speech on Tuesday to announce plans to spend an additional £1bn over five years on cancer diagnosis, cutting to just one week the time between the referral for tests and results.”
And where exactly will this money be coming from?
137. Merkel can live with the Grand Coalition but it seems that these overhang seats are the key to CDU/FDP chances. Merkel’s party looks to be a potential big beneficiary.
Ive already taken some odds on the CDU/SPD option a week ago after hearing that the FDP may be a fairly demanding bunch and Merkel’s public statements about her perference for the FDP may be rather more ambivalent in private. The election could well strengthen the CDU and weaken the SPD so may mean that Merkel can do more of what she wants even under a grand coalition again.
Far be it for someone far from the madding crowd of London politics to comment but I just have this hunch that the Liberals will get a real electoral hammering in the south west London boroughs.
I just feel the “mansion tax” will be exploited by the Tories there, those who vote in GE’s but not locals will go more heavily Tory and weariness of the incumbents may kick in.
I was surprised how badly the Liberals came of in south west England this year for example and that wasn’t a GE.
135 - Sean F - not sure that analysing the true meaning of Liberalism is profitable, any more than the discussions here of whether the BNP is socialist or reactionary, etc. One ends up arguing about the label rather than the tin.
152
The printer
129 Sean Fear. I’m sure that applies to the bit of Brent Central arriving from Teather’s Brent East but does it apply to the old Brent South parts? I didn’t think they’d been seriously fought over since the 1930’s.
150 - Nick.
Is the percentage of don’t knows unusually high for a week before the election?
@155:
The Hundal/Katwala tin is empty. Has been for a long time.
152 - I’m sure Mervyn King can print Gordo some more money
156 - No, apparently it is might be coming from raiding the £5.6bn NHS capital budget….
So that means from cuts in other areas right? I wonder if Gordo will mention that part of the equation or it will all be “efficiency savings”.
I withdraw my previous remarks about Question Time civility!
160 Perhaps we can get Dollar/Sterling parity by next year with another few hundred billion on QE?
152 - Its a disgrace.
That money should go in tax cuts to the Camerons and Osbornes.
Michael Foot is quite impressive on QT, can you imagine Gordo on QT?
165 - Have we ever established if / when the last time he has been on QT?
165. Foot had another year before he became leader [1980]…
163 - Some people are prediciting parity with the Euro in a few weeks.
Thanks for that link, Mr Palmer. Very useful.
One can notice that when the CDU/CSU drops by a few points, the FDP seems to gain a few, and vice-versa…
Yokel “it seems that these overhang seats are the key to CDU/FDP chances”
All the analysis I read agree with that.
164 No, it should go on a flipped property for the PM to add to the collection of properties Grace and Favour and otherwise trousered by the Browns.
Some of it should go on cash payments to his brother though, for some service rendered or other by someone.
And he should definitely do an interview with Boulton to talk about how those ‘other MPs, not me, but others’ have upset the public.
Re Martin
Presumably he is still reading the site - he can’t be banned from that can he?!
Anyway if he is - Martin you are basically a good guy, we all have our faults - OK so your spelling is rubbish, but there’s more to life ;-). Chin up
168
We had Euro parity about 6 months ago. I know, I was in Berlin at the time!!!
Thank the lord we aren’t in the Euro.
168 its a given when QE is extended in October or November
166 - I think someone said 1996 or it might have been Newsnight.
167 - Ah thanks for that.
I remember watching BBC Parliament’s coverage of the No Confidence debate in 1979, and Foot finished the debate on behalf of the Government, he was impressive there too.
155 I don’t think that Liberal Conspiracy falls within any recognised description of Liberalism, though.
157 Welsh Harp ward (and its predecessors) has historically been fought hard between Conservatives and Labour (which could be bad for Labour if 1,000 or so Conservatives switch to the Lib Dems to oust them). I think that Harlesden and Stonebridge are solid for Labour because of their large black populations. The rest of Brent Central will be hard fought.
Scottish trams
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yOqU4-zE5w
174 - No he has done Newsnight since he became PM, but not a grilling from Paxo, oh no no no, “specially” invited correspondence asked the questions instead.
My sister is inconveniently getting married in Australia at the most expensive time of year (New Year) so I am 3 grand down for flights for the family before we get there.
But thanks to Brown the exchange rate, which was well over A$2.50 a year ago…is now AS$1.85 and falling fast.
Thanks for that Gordon
correspondence -> correspondents
166. At at guess, the mid 1990s. He retired as MP in 1992, and is now over 96 years old…
175 Thanks. So has that rest of Brent Cental been fought over much before? On Brent Central how do you see that now. Have you shifted from solid Labour hold view in any way.
“I think that Harlesden and Stonebridge are solid for Labour because of their large black populations.”
Don’t let Martin Coxall hear you say that, he will have you down as a racist…
173
We will be putting our money in wheelbarrows soon. Quantititive easing is printing money by another name. The inflationarty effect will surely come back to haunt us.
180. Foot that is, not Brown
174 Foot should never have become leader, but you could listen to him all day.
His speech in the emergency Falklands debate I remember being particularly impressive.
Can anyone give me a link to that?
More ammunition for the healthcare wars…
What would be the consequence for an uninsured person who doesn’t buy an Obama healthcare plan? Huge fines and imprisonment!
http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0909/Ensign_receives_handwritten_confirmation_.html?showall
Maybe the GOP can start running some ads showing mom and dad in jail, courtesy of Obama’s healthcare reform.
@180: “Inflationarty” is my favourite typo of the day. I have an impression of money flatulently pouring into the economy.
O/T - For those who have bet on the champions league specials in the past.
Uefa is investigating 40 cases of match-fixing involving games in the Champions League and Uefa Cup.
Peter Limacher, head of disciplinary services at Uefa, told The Associated Press on Friday that the cases involved early qualifying matches of clubs, mainly from Eastern Europe, over the past four years.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/european_football/article6850176.ece
152. Brown’s rather wayward assumption in that is that the referral will occur in time.
As someone who became a full time carer for a close relative this week whose GP utterly failed to spot the signs (for what I guess was a couple of years or more) ending with my partner calling an ambulance for my relative, it really doesn’t matter whether it is a 10 day diagnosis (which it was) or a 7 day diagnosis because the outcome is no different.
Palliative care becomes the only option………
188 - And there we were thinking the Icelandic goal post moving goalie was up to no good!
181 I would say that Harlesden, Stonebridge, and Kensal Green have not been fought over much, but those are the wards that are least likely to shift. I think they will give the edge to Labour in what will be a tight contest.
187
Its inevitable that inflation as a result of QE will eventually catch up with us.
185 - I think this is it Tim
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1982/apr/03/falkland-islands
191 Thanks. By tight do you mean less than four figures either way?
191 I would add, that on occasions, there has been a surprisingly big Conservative vote in Stonebridge. There are some nice streets in a ward which has an awful reputation due to the eponymous estate, and presumably these streets provide what Conservative vote there is,
174
“I remember watching BBC Parliament’s coverage of the No Confidence debate in 1979, and Foot finished the debate on behalf of the Government, he was impressive there too.”
Yes a riveting story, with a wholly unexpected twist at the end…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/audio/40149000/rm/_40149977_tipspecial.ram
194 I would give it to Labour by a couple of thousand. Massive tactical voting by Conservatives (I’m sure there’ll be some) could wipe that out though.
189 - Politically I think could actually be quite dangerous, as I’m sure certain papers (mention no names) will start banging (rightly or wrongly) on about what magic cancer drugs could be bought with that money instead. TimBot will be firefighting like mad
So, Maguire’s basically saying that Team Brown are quibbling over the format to try and avoid a debate and that they are so bereft of talent they need to go back to the old guard.
I’d love it if once, when he is on the BBC, someone asks him to repeat what he calls Cameron in his column and explain why.
“I think that Harlesden and Stonebridge are solid for Labour because of their large black populations.”
West Indian is similar to WWC in some ways i.e there’s prob about 25% Tory votes buried among the Labour ones. Would need to canvass in the mornings though when the gangstas are asleep otherwise stabby stabby.
171,totally agree with your post,did’nt see last nights post on PB,chin up martin.
Corporal punishment!
152. “Mr Brown will use his conference speech on Tuesday to announce plans to spend an additional £1bn over five years on cancer diagnosis, cutting to just one week the time between the referral for tests and results.”
So an extra £200 million a year. Put that aside the estimated £60,000 million a year in interest payments alone, a 2014 deficit estimated at £75,000 million, and the £700,000 million extra debt.
Small beer from a politician who has totally f*cked up the economy.
202 I know they say the past is a foreign country, but I’m experiencing culture shock…..
199 Muckguire was on 5 live earlier saying Sarah Brown had more people following her on twitter than Stephen Fry. WFT is that all about and who gives a monkeys?? Is it politically significant?
BTW Noone mentioned that noone is listening to McBrown either on twitter or anywhere else…
199 - I still can’t quite believe a) the balls of the man and b) how morally bankrupt the broadcaster are to continue to give him such a high billing after his “was there in a personal capacity” for the meeting over the Smeart-athon website. Furthermore, if I owned the Daily Mirror, I would be asking questions about what I actually pay Muckguire to do? Hunt out good political stories or be colluding with government / union officials to nobble the opposition.
205 - If Martin was still with us, I’m sure he would be telling us, “all part of the plan….”
And Harriet’s bangin her drum again - she wants more women in the
bedroomoops boardroom [yawn]……..http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850106.ece
197 Well who knows that maybe feasible. IIRC Cardiff Central in 2005 with an unpopular Labour MP and the Tories in 3rd saw the Conservative vote halve in one election.
I’ve asked the BBC a couple of times when they have him on, but no response.
“Foot Claims Socialist Britain Will Be Like Wartime!”
would I suspect be the headline after his comment just now…..
200 No, the proportion who’ll vote Conservative is about 2%. Many don’t vote at all, however.
I have just been reading the PB archives for the 7th may 2005. Its amazing how many people thought David Cameron was too young and inexperienced to become leader of the Conservative party.
25/199 - the man is so handsomely full of crap:
“Much shouting at the box these days by a Gordon Brown who views the BBC as little more than an arm of the Conservative propaganda machine.”
Which is a bit like saying that Labour, after 15 years of amazing and continuous sex with a stunning woman, is now thinking of beating her to death on the grounds that she said ‘thank you’ to the TV repairman.
“David Cameron isn’t as keen on a live TV debate as he once was, I gather. Druggie Dave fancied a single-bout, winner-takes-all knockdown. The Talibrown whisper that their man prefers three rounds or none.”
Yes, because you see what happens when people in Cameron’s inner circle know something is they walk right up to Kevin Maguire and say “do you know what, Kev? That Dave is a right ol’ girlie who only wants one debate!” I’m better connected with Cameron than Toilets is, entirely on the grounds that I saw him twice in Westminster corridors last year.
102. Thanks for the apology, Mike. Have I now been downgraded to Category C ?
My observations on 1979 QT.
Teddy Taylor looked and sounded more like a LOTO in waiting than the far more civilised Michael Foot.
Edna was twenty years ahead of her time.Worlock should have been removed to a nearby field and shot.
Robin Day was so far superior to the current presiding nincompoop that the comparison is embarrassing.His job was much easier.
Not crazy about the invited audience then or now.They were probably LESS representative then than now.
I am reminded of why I was a Socialist in 197
“Much shouting at the box these days by a Gordon Brown who views the BBC as little more than an arm of the Conservative propaganda machine.”
There is good evidence that he has lost his marbles if any was required!
213. They were correct…
212 “No, the proportion who’ll vote Conservative is about 2%. Many don’t vote at all, however.”
The proportion who’ll vote Tory without being asked is very low.
LOTO?
218 Yeah, he’s been a disaster…..
220 - Leader of the Opposition.
Champagne at £1.80 a glass. I’ll have some of that!
220 Leader of the Opposition
221 - Yes he has been a disaster, for the Labour and the Lib Dems.
Sean very interesting analysis.
A couple of points on swing and turnout.First swing.Since May 2006 the last time the seats were contested the swing in the national polls are Lab -Con *8%,Lab-Lib 3%,Lib-Con 5%.At a simple level this suggests significant gains for the Tories from Labour,some from Lib dems and a few gains from Labour for Libs.
However if as expecyed thes elondon elections are at the same time a sthe GE then the higher turnout produced could benefit Labour slightly,and reduc ethe losses slightlyWould agrewe with other posters assessment that 2010 is likelt to be the high point in Tory local government fortunes.
However the number of authorities changing hands may not be huge.
Your analysis suggests Tory gains in Kingston and SuttonfromLib dems,Con losses Redbridge,Harrow,.For Labour you are giving gains in Brent,Islington,a loss of Barking to NOC.
I cannot see the Tories losing any councils given the national picture.I therefore dont see any Labour gains -not Brent,nor Islington.
For the Lib Demsloose sof Sutton,and MKInston on the cards and only poosible gian looks to be Haringey with an outside chance of regaining Southwark.
HNY, 220.LOTO= Leader of the Opposition.
Oh. Not Lord Of The Orcs then.
Who do we think will be leaving SCD tomorrow?
I’m going for Jo Wood.
229
I am going..to bed. I never watch reality TV, it dulls the brain IMHO.
Martin Day, if you are out there, I hope you are ok.
Goodnight all
212 - Where’s that 2% figure come from?
Oh God, Obama is drawling on about Pittsburgh.
Where on Earth does this nonsense about him being a great speaker come from?!
231. Daily Kos?
232 he is sooooooo boring, it hurts my ears!!
230 - The link at 193, was that the one you were looking for?
no, no,no, no, no
Obama said we can;t go back to the boom and bust policies of the past.
He has been Browned
235 - I can see that being used in a Labour PPB
234 - Just seen it, yes thanks a lot.
235 but…but…the past includes *the last decade under Brown!”
236. Why on earth would Labour want to remind us of how stupid that rhetoric has made Brown look over the last year or two?
238 the dcade in which Brown had already abolished boom and bust, before realising he hadn’t.
<Mind you, this is Barack ‘Unemployment will top out at 8 point something %’ Obama - he is as big a numpty as Brown
239 - Because Labour are led by the genius that is Gordon Brown, and who thinks Obama is the Messiah.
Tomorrow’s Independent has a front page header with
“Labour at War: Prescott takes a swing at Harman”
Please let it be true.
I’m not sure one can blame Obama for the unemployment figures…..but there’s no excuse for lifting from Brown.
Love this.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/obama-to-meet-bulgarian-deputy-sports-minister-200909242087/
Just got in - I can’t post at work or would have commented sooner…
JACK W FPT that was a really lovely post from you and in my opinion is probably the best post on here of all time! In case anyone missed it here it is:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/09/25/is-this-where-gord-is-being-interviewed-for-his-next-job/#comment-1229219
Others - your support for Martin is also appreciated - yes he was clearly completely out of order on here last night but it would be wrong to turn our back on him.
Mike S - thanks for your help and concern for Martin.
Martin - what are you doing!!!!!! See if you can agree with Mike a suitable (lengthy) suspension, and come back later on and DON’T POST ANYTHING LIKE THAT AGAIN!!!! I know you are a decent person, are having a difficult time but THINK!!!!
Coldstone/tim/mark senior - I know I’ve said it before but today’s posting by you prove that you are c*nts!!!
I know it’s in the Daily Heil, but WTF??????
Dealing with antisocial behaviour and ‘ low-level’ hooliganism is no longer the responsibility of the police, a senior officer said yesterday.
Superintendent Steve Harrod, speaking at the inquest of a mother and her disabled daughter who were hounded to their deaths by yobs, said it is now the responsibility of local councils since a law change in 1998.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216168/Dont-help-yobs–hooligans-councils-problem-says-police-officer.html
241. Obama must have gone moonbat if he has started pinching lines from Brown.
243 Well, he confidently predicted his plans would cap unemployment in the US at 8 point something or other. Ridiculously and hopelessly optimistic I am afraid. Economic illiteracy from the Messiah.
246 Sheer poetry.
“Labour at War: Prescott takes a swing at Harman”
Let it be literal!
Brwon is the boom amd the bust and the past.
245 - Good evening, are you off to Reading to tomorrow to give Mr Rodgers your regards?
246. Tells you how bad it’s got, doesn’t it?
What’s next? - knife crime is now the responsibility of traffic wardens…?
I’ll probably post another reminder tomorrow, but the qualifying is at 3pm tomorrow, because of the timezone difference with Singapore. Race is still at 1pm though. I’ll do my usual post over on pb2.
Labour at War: Prescott takes a swing at Harman”
Did she throw an egg at him?
246
Reading that, it’s more that there is a “3 strikes” type thing going on.
250 Even I would raise a ‘politically incorrect’ smile if that were to happen.
255.
How dare that b4stard slate my Hatty !
245,ave it,what a wonderful post,especially the last bit.
I miss the LD Conference. It was political anorak comedy gold. I know only three people watched - but I was one of them.
When asked if Ms Tapui had been in contact with her former employer since the scandal broke, Mr Clifford replied: “I don’t know. What I do know is that she speaks very highly of Baroness Scotland and seems to be very fond of her.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/housekeeper-may-speak-out-to-correct-untruths-1793030.html
Maybe Scotland is going to be alright after all, did think it was a bit too good to be true that Labour donor Clifford would turn. Suppose we will just have to wait and see in the Sundays.
258 - Wayne, we still on course for a resignation this weekend?
Oooooh in Tomorrow’s Guardian Ed Balls says Gordon should take part in the leaders debate, because Cameron isn’t good on his feet/details - Paper review on Sky news.
263 Yes- we can tell that in the way he always fluffs PMQ’s and never goes out to the public to take questions.
Oh no, that’s Brown. Hang on……
Obama became a boring speaker the second he beat Hillary.
263 - Could be double bluff, wheel out everybody to say Gordo will do it, Cameron is crapping himself….then some rubbish about failing to agree on T&C, those evil Tories not wanting this or that…
252 hello TSE now he (Rodgers) really is a c*nt!!! I hate Reading anyway - I REALLY hate them now!
Reading = coldstone + tim
I’m in the pub all day tomorrow but if we get a result no doubt i’ll be on here later!!
Very good effort by you last night to try and defuse Martin but clearly he was too far gone!!!
259 yes the last bit was good
But Jack W’s post really was top!!!
260. It was a thing of beauty. I’m currently trying to decide whether or not to give the Labour conference the same close scrutiny. I’m not sure if I can stomach a whole Gordon Brown conference speech. Especially if he goes on about how his best mate Barack loves him really.
On the one hand, I’ve sod all else to do. On the other hand, if I wanted to see a middle-aged man, whose been betrayed by his latest love, phoning in a half-hearted performance in front of obsessives, weirdos, soulless PR men and hacks, I could just stick on a Paul McCartney DVD.
263 - I suppose Balls gets his ears rubbed and a tasty treat for saying such things, so he’s happy now.
Telegraph YouGov??
is poll ratings were dire, senior colleagues, like Charles Clarke, were sniping at his leadership and there were rumours that he might step down, using ill health as an excuse.
Twelve months on, his poll ratings are dire, Charles Clarke is again in full Jeremiah mode and there are rumours etc etc. In other words, as our YouGov poll shows today, it is Groundhog Day for Mr Brown. He has made no progress in the past year; and there is no reason to believe he will make any between now and next June, by which time he must have called an election.
While there continues to be a glimmer of light on the economic front, with people feeling moderately less gloomy about their prospects than they have for some time, Mr Brown gets no credit for the improvement and, indeed, is partly balmed for their predicament.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/6231141/Gordon-Brown-dead-man-walking-The-Daily-Telegraph-poll-shows.html
Missing it now…
LDs = DOOMED = EZIO!!!!!!
(LDs coming out well today to be fair with Jack W and Mike - Labour showing their true colours with tim and c*ntstone!)#
# Jack W possibly not LD but old school Con/Liberal 1906
263 - Gordon is usually crap but what has he to lose?
Cameron hasn’t been tested in anything other than 10 minute bursts so Brown might as well go for the US format of three debates.
And get Darling to kick Osborne around a bit as well.
An Mandelson and Clarke.
Go for broke.
263 – Why would Ed Balls lull Brown into such a false sense of security with such blatant nonsense?
Is Ed the ‘puppet master assassin’ ?
267 - I only wish I had more of an effect on Martin.
Martin if you’re reading this, hope everything is ok.
I too suffered from a bout of depression last year, talking about it really does help.
272. Hague marmelising Miliband would be an added bonus.
262.
I am still expecting it to happen !
My mole is very reliable
268 Its not going to have anything like as many laughs. Heard they are calling in the ‘The Wake’.
I am going to my first Tory Con. Don’t know what to expect except a lot of canapes. It will be the busiest one ever apparently.
Newsnight’s Paul Mason just now suggesting that Brown has ended the G20 on a favourable platform to launch the Labour Party Conference.
Favourable enough to announce that having “Saved the World, Saved the Banks…” he is going to step aside and yet Labour choose a new leader to lead them into the General Election?
Not actually as sweet as she looks - I have her in training to go up to wigan and bite tim soon…
http://www.marshallpark.com.au/new_pics/red_kitten.jpg
277 - Its in Manchester, which is just like the Wire so be careful.
The action will be on Canal Street and in the Northern Quarter.
And not as sleazy as Blackpool.
277 enjoy it - remember no triumphalism yet - not until 7 may…
273. It was Balls who suckered Brown with ‘neo-endogenous growth theory’. He’s been leading Gordon astray for quite a long time. I wonder why.
253 Rod - Quite so.
Logically, therefore, you’ll be voting Conservative?
280 What passes for canapes in Manchester?
Jacobs crackers and Dairylea.
284 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLL!!!
With brown ale
Baroness Scotland was under intense pressure to quit amid fears that the row over her breach of immigration laws will overshadow the Labour Party conference.
As Labour delegates began gathering in Brighton last night for their final conference before the general election, the Attorney General’s former housekeeper, Loloahi Tapui, was preparing to sell her story to a Sunday newspaper.
Miss Tapui’s agent, the publicist Max Clifford, said his client’s story was ‘very different’ to the version of events in the public domain.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216171/Can-Baroness-Scotland-cling-housekeeper-tells-side.html
284 - Ecstasy and Pineapple on a stick
281 ‘Sound’ advice.
285 Nah. Special Brew AKA Wife Beater.
Evening all, I have just been recieving a salutary lesson in never attempting things beyond your level of competence. Aargh.
279 Ave it, stop all this pussy-footing around; Tim is going to wake up and find this on the end of his bed!
http://www.jaguarsafari.com/Images/North%20Pantanal%20Thumb_WEB.jpg
(and I was stood next to the guy when he took this piccy - mine aren’t quite so sharp!)
289 - I thought a stella was the wife beater?
208 jsfl - From Harriet, the most nauseating quote of the week:
So was the Iron Lady a good role model for women? “She showed that a woman can do it,” she says. “But she didn’t say, ‘I can do it because I am a woman and can bring something different to it’. She did it in a man’s way.”
279 Ave it, stop all this pu$$y-footing around; Tim is going to wake up and find this on the end of his bed!
http://www.jaguarsafari.com/Images/North%20Pantanal%20Thumb_WEB.jpg
(and I was stood next to the guy when he took this piccy - mine aren’t quite so sharp!)
289 - Stella Artois is wifebeater in the local parlance.
290 is that like reading trying to win a football match?
Or senior passing an IQ test???
Off topic for a moment: what the hell is Die Another Day? An invisible car, awful CGI surfing and bloody Madonna is in it!
Silly ITV2…
295 - I couldn’t comment on that.
294 Only if your posh.
293 lol thats a little sweetlet - i stroked her the other day…
That is going round to reading to deal with stephen hunt (oops is that a typo?!) tomorrow
280
I believe the Tory Party for the first time in its history is to have a gay pride meeting during its party conference. It is to be held in Canal Street, some wag has suggested that in honour of the event the, ‘C’ is to be removed from Canal and the, ‘S’ from Street: don’t get it myself.
288 – Have you anymore stories to share concerning your ‘room-mate’
Only thinking off your reputation of course.
292 - I sometimes think that if I ever actually met Harriet Harman in person I’d just punch her in the mouth. And no ‘you can’t hit a lady’ nonsense; I wouldn’t notice the difference. Or would I? Am I supposed to? I have no idea… I think I’m supposed to embrace the differences without noticing they exist or something…
300 - That joke is so old coldsore.
And I’m in Canal street tomorrow, celebrating my birthday.
“So was the Iron Lady a good role model for women? “She showed that a woman can do it,” she says. “But she didn’t say, ‘I can do it because I am a woman and can bring something different to it’. She did it in a man’s way.”
Ah yes, it’s the old “women only count when they are left wing feminists” gambit……
Newsnight, Tories looking for an election slogan apparently:
“twenty years of cold porridge - get used to it”
would be my suggestion.
timbot - a quick game of complete the sentence:
“The Tories have shot themselves badly in the foot by……”
I notice Mancunians join your list of Asians, Christians, anti-abotionists and fat people.
Plank.
“Top of the league, were having a laugh”
300 yawn go away
303 watch out for tim he likes manchester
Maybe tim and coldstone will be out together
A good laugh from the Daily Rant:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1215967/Italian-PM-Berlusconi-looks-pleased-Michelle-Obama-arrives-wives-dinner-alone.html
303 - Velvet?
coldstone…
http://www.wildlifebcnp.org/wtphotos/smalls/Ian%20Towle%20-%20slug.jpg
301 Its an all ‘girls’ outing. I am the baby of the group.
305 - Oh, here we go, its DayLite
309 - Well the plan is to go to AXM and Poptastic, then probably end up at Fabs cafe on portland street later on.
313 i am going to manchester next year with someone who is married to a labour voter…
314 - Well I’m marrying a Labour voter.
Poll:
Con 39%
Lab 26%
LD 20%
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6231632/Dire-poll-ratings-for-Gordon-Brown-ahead-of-Labour-conference.html
303
Not that I mind, being a tolerant lefty, but are there any straight people left in the Tory party? apart from Norm of course.
315 Good luck!
Enjoy the 50% tax…
(Do you get double tax credits with twins?!)
305
“Things didn’t get better”
There is nothing wrong with Manchester that tearing down and rebuilding again will not cure.
Been a bit busy today, so catching up with my post of earlier, whatever we think of tim - and he can be annoying at times - he and Albion made a bet (and this is a betting site), Albion lost and now refuses to pay up. I think tim could have all our sympathy.
318 - I’m not sure about the tax credits, wont apply for them anyway.
316 - A modest bouncette for the LDs…and at the expense of the Cons.
316 - Tories down 3 Lib Dems up 2.
Theres no such thing as bad publicity.
316
Hmmm as my prediction for the GE is Tories 38, Lab 28 Libdem 20ish
in the ball park
305
New election slogan?
Watch out, New Labour’s about.
321 timbot#2. Can you complete the sentence:
“The Tories have shot themselves badly in the foot by……”
timbot#1 cannot manage it.
322 - Twins and a public school commitment.
Oops.
324 - just to clarify, it’s actually Tories down 2 LD up 3 - on the last YouGov, rather than the last Telegraph one.
328 - That’s what my parents are for Tim.
328 SPANNER
325 NUT
329 - So the Lib Dems received a boost from their conference?
I think I need to go and lie down
316
Tory Maj of 38 not that brilliant!!
More nanny state nonsense:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/6231866/Adults-must-register-with-Ofsted-to-look-after-children.html
333 - I’ll be happy with that. Means no more Brown or Labour
331,just waiting for the crank to complete it.
333 Con maj 150 if we are 13% ahead spanner!
312 “Oh, here we go, its DayLite”
Assuming the “Day” relates to Mr Day I’ll take that as meaning the bunker have decided to give up lying about knife crime after 12 long bloody years. Will have to start on the covered up huge increase in rape and sexual assault next.
336 mark senior will be here later….
333 Keep talking them down Coldstone. SPIN is still understating Tory seat numbers, helps those of us in the betting fraternity.
Can you complete the sentence “The Tories have shot themselves badly in the foot by……”
timbots 1 and 2 cannot manage it.
English have to show passports when visiting Scotland:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6228232/Domestic-passengers-flying-to-Scotland-may-now-have-to-show-their-passports.html
tim =
“Tory Maj of 38 not that brilliant!”
Works for me. An election victory and Tory government.
343 its good cos then we can put tim and coldstone under house arrest….
320 - The IRA tried that and it’s still rubbish.
341 What this country really needs is ID cards. Would stop this kind of nonsense and all global terrorism instantly.
(Note to tim racist and dim - thats called sarcasm).
340 - helps those of us in the betting fraternity.
The bet welching community you mean.
Just pay Mike and have done
347 timbot
Can you complete the sentence “The Tories have shot themselves badly in the foot by……”
I’m shocked, tomorrow’s Express has a Diana exclusive on it’s front page
334 It’s worse than just nanny-statism, C. The bunch of lunatics who run the country are systematically and deliberately trying to destroy family life and the parent-child relationship.
Quite why, I guess we’ll never know.
The worst of it is that it will be devilish hard for Cameron to get the country back to sanity in this area.
More articles on the same theme:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2009/sep/24/children-bullying-dinner-lady
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1215404/A-dopey-judge-lesbian-teacher-insidious-bid-lower-age-consent.html
348 - Tolerating a packed selection meeting.
so in simple terms the boroughs with large-ish black and immigrant populations will vote labour as they are PERCEIVED as a soft touch on immigration and benefits, and those boroughs where a large majority (above 75%) work will vote tory.
is that correlation correct?
Another day in Punxsutawney
334 - It’s not just ‘nanny state’, it’s evil. Labour make great play of misquoting Margaret thatcher on ‘there’s no such thing as society’, but they are doing everything in their power to destroy society and every normal human relationship between people.
They really cannot bear the thought of an independent, autonomous human being.
They are the most hateful people.
351 - What is the class structure of the ethnic minority community in the area you are referring to?
“The pledge to offer all patients the right to receive the results of their cancer tests within a week of referral, or seek treatment in the private sector, comes with a £200 million a year price-tag, and is estimated to save up to 10,000 lives a year.”
Sounds like more back of a fag packet stat, 10k lives, is that a bit like the 500k jobs saved or the millions of extra eco-jobs that included petrol pump attendants, north sea gas riggers, etc?
350 lol
12 hours to reply and that is all you can come up with?
12 hours to deny you meant “The Tories have shot themselves badly in the foot by appointing an Asian candidate”. Its laughably poor. The timbot 9000 is obviously struggling.
In 12 hours do you think you can also come up with a non-racist explanation of “I wonder how many samosas they ordered” in response to OGH showing a picture of Asians at the primary? Or your anti-Christian or anti-anti-abotionist or anti-fat smears?
Plank. Keyboard Warrior.
The Labour Party. We believe in equality of hatred for all people.
356 Didn’t Brown promise the same thing last year? It’s sounds vaguely familiar.
358 - Dunno, still waiting for my free computer though!
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-Saturday-September-26-2009/Media-Gallery/200909415390425?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15390425_The_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages%2C_Saturday%2C_September_26%2C_2009
350, 354 Richard N and Archroy. I couldn’t agree more. What strikes me as well is that discretion, responsibility and accountability is being displaced and distorted from where it should actually lie (parents, head teachers, care home managers etc), often to faceless government bureaucracy’s, who of course aren’t really accountable at all, to anyone. The cost of all this is probably also shocking.
for those who intend betting on the Glasgow North East by-election here is an article about the Jury candidate John Smeaton.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6850126.ece
360 - Iran story on two front pages.
Lack of perspective or what.
Ave it - Reading Watford tomorrow are you going?
“Destroy the family. Destroy the country.” V.I Lenin
I also disagree on Richmond. The Tories might regain it but the Lib Dem majority will definitely tighten. It’s not that they’ve done anything particularly awful, Richmond voters just seem to be particularly fickle.
350 - You know its getting really bad politically (not to mention the reality) when the Guardian piece reads like a Daily Rant article on this topic!
re 357 Albion tim may be a plank, but the fact remains that you honourably owe him fifty quid.
356 “estimated to save up to 10,000 lives a year”
So, there we have Labour’s election campaign in a nutshell:
“You’d be dead if it weren’t for Gordon…”
along with the equally snappy
“You’d be broke if it weren’t for Gordon…”
and
“You’d be unemployed if it weren’t for Gordon…”
and for a bit of variety
“David Cameron would have let you die…”
364 no i am out in west end all day.
Are you going? You’re not reading are you???
363 - What are you wittering now? I hope you haven’t been on the sauce, we had enough late night (and most likely alcohol fueled) racism last night and I’m sure the last time OGH need is for you to reprise your Bernard Manning impression from this morning.
wittering -> wittering about..
time -> thing
and no I haven’t been drinking
370 lets ban tim!
Ave it - Yes since I was a kid and now I am am have a season ticket holder.
363,nice story for you top of the independent,but I prefer the sun headline,’sophie,I sold sex for £15k a hour’.
347. tim.
ATID made a perfectly reasonable offer of settlement. I assume that your description of him as a welcher implies that you’re rejecting that offer?
363 “Iran story on two front pages.”
Er….Times + Sun + Indie + Guardian + FT = 5
Having trouble with numbers again tim?
374 Apologies for the stutter.
374 aaaaaaaagh you are a [not posted by Ave it to avoid a ban!]
Why dont you support a proper team like Oxford?!
375 its nice but £15k/hr is a bit excessive…
“David Cameron would have let you die…”
Well, we’ve had the “Cameron will come round and punch you in the face” PPB…..
i think it is shocking that a middle eastern country beginning with “i” refuses to confirm or deny that it has nuclear weapons, and has shown it is not averse to attacking other countries in the region if they do not agree politically with them.
the UN has demanded that action be taken against them.
question is, am i talking about israel or iran?
£250 for a minute.
376 - your opinion is that bets on this site are settled by meeting outside a fantasy mosque in Birmingham?
Interesting argument.
I’m happy for him to pay Mike, or a charity.
383. tim.
My opinion is that meeting in person is a reasonable way to settle a bet.
What you do with your winnings is up to you - but it is clear that the ball is in your court, and if you decline to receive your winnings you are wrong to describe ATID as a welcher.
379. Ave it - No, Oxford are the enemy whereas there is not the width of a cigarette paper between Reading and Watford! They have shared the same manager and they have they have the same policies to inflict as much pain as possible on their long suffering fans. We should form a coalition with the aim of replacing the Oxford manager with Brendan Rogers to ensure they will never threaten us again.
Well the Scottish Sun is really getting behind its columnist. Another full double spread towards the front of the paper (pages 8/9)
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2655737/John-Smeaton-launches-bid-to-become-MP.html