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Lib Dems get 4 point ICM boost in a week

September 26th, 2009


CON 40 (-3) LAB 26 (nc) LD 23 (+4)

But will it be there after the conference season?

After last night’s YouGov poll showing a three point increase in the Lib Dem total there’s a new ICM poll out for the News of the World which is showing the same broad movement – Labour at a standstill, Nick Clegg’s party up with the Tories down.

Another trend, not seen by YouGov but reinforced by ICM, is the continued decline of “others” – which is now down to 11%. YouGov yesterday had this at 15%.

The comparisons are with the Guardian ICM survey which came out on Monday evening.

The Lib Dem progress now being shown by two pollsters will provide real cheer for the party after a conference which perhaps did not see the pre-election unity that they might have hoped for.

But what the conference did is give them exposure and there’s little doubt that this is a key driver of Lib Dem numbers. In a general election campaign, of course, the broadcasting rules come into play and they get an assured level of coverage.

The big question in the short term is whether they will hold onto these shares as we move into the Labour and then the Tory conference weeks.

If experience of recent years is anything to go by then they will see a slippage – but how much?

The Tories might be concerned that they, and not Labour, have taken the hit – something that might provide a bit of boost as Labour delegates arrive in Brighton.

Mike Smithson