So was it a good Lib Dem Conference?
September 26th, 2009
CON 39% (-2) LAB 26% (-1) LD 20%(+3)
Good news for Clegg’s party from YouGov
A YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Telegraph will bring some welcome relief for the Lib Dems with a three point boost in their rating. Both the Conservatives and Labour are down, with the Conservatives dropping back below 40%. The changes are against the Sunday Times poll, conducted by YouGov and published on 11th September. All the changes are within the margin of error but only just in the case of the Lib Dems.
Despite the Lib Dem conference producing mixed messages from the platform and struggling to make much impact beyond a genuinely headline-grabbing ‘mansion tax’, it would appear that the public liked what they heard. It makes you wonder what a really successful conference might have achieved.
There look to be some interesting figures further down the questions on the various party leaders with the Telegraph claiming that none is as popular as his party. Without seeing how adjustments and don’t knows are counted, it’s difficult to draw too strong a conclusion but it’s not good news for Cameron if so (it’s not good news for any of them but Brown’s been personally unpopular and Clegg relatively anonymous for ages).
Of course, Labour and the Conservatives still have their own conferences to come and we’ll only get a true picture after they’ve all taken place. Even so, a small amount of humble pie on my part - it’s only one poll but if it’s representative, the Lib Dem’s do stand a good chance of gaining during the election campaign from the increased coverage.
David Herdson
UPDATE: Comment from Mike Smithson:
The 20% Lib Dem share is from a pollster which has been rating the Lib Dems at lower levels than the other firms and has only been achieved three times since David Cameron became Tory leader.The Telegraph commentary about leaders being less popular than their parties appears to be defective. They are comparing one set of data which has been processed in one way with another set that has been processed in another.
Thus the top-line voting figures normally exclude “don’t knows“/”won’t say“/”won’t vote” while the figures in the story to back up their point apparently
excludeINCLUDE this group.
We’ll have to wait for the full data to come out to check this but from the Telegraph report it seems that only 67% expressed an opinion on this question while the voting intention figures are based, after the exclusions, on 100%.
Also on the voting intention numbers the figure for “others” is still at a high level and the trend of this dropping that we saw in the latest ICM poll has not been picked up by the YouGov panel.On a general level YouGov, unlike the the telephone pollsters, does not weight on certainty to vote and this is one of the elements which has been dragging down Labour with ICM, ComRes, Populus and MORI.
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First it would seem.
I think there’s 3-4% of the vote that supports whichever party they saw last on the telly like that character in the fast show.
For what its worth and i dont take much notice.CCHQ today mobilised their printers for a 22nd October election.
Just covering all bases i suppose.
2. Yes, it really is most odd. Might just be remembering the Lib Dems are there.
3 Very wise of them…
Brand recognition.
Cable on TV.
Kicking the fops works for the Lib Dems but not Labour?
Seems not dissimilar to last year:
CON 44%(-2): LAB 24% (-3): LD 20% (+4)
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/19/lib-dems-get-big-conference-boost-with-yougov/
Is this poll really much more than in-the-midst-of-the-conferences margin of error churn?
7. labour have 3% swingback
I think one thing is becoming clear the 25/26% is definitely now the bottom of Labour’s range in the polls. We have just had day after day after day of bad headlines and they are still there on 26%. Really good week for Team Gordo and they might even squeeze back up to the old “core” level of nearly 30%.
Last year (if I’m reading the dates right) the LDs had a 4% boost (16% - 20%) in their YouGov polling after their conference, which fell back shortly afterwards. So no, not a “good” conference; but equally, not a “bad” one either.
Looking at the Guardian coverage from last year, it seems surprisingly similar to this, actually. Pace Vince Cable being seen through.
8. I don’t think so but the key thing is how the public react when they get more coverage of the Lib Dems (as they will during the election). Until this poll came out, I wasn’t convinced that their message was either clear or (in as far as it could be discerned) the right one. I’m still not convinced but am giving it second thoughts.
During an election campaign i’d guess 2-3% of that 3-4% will go to Cameron as he’s the best telly performer, with the last 1% getting him confused with Clegg and going to the LDs.
This poll Is complete b4llocks!
I just took a print and wiped my a4se on it !
I ‘ll take a 13% lead any day. A Tory majority of 50.
But is it real?
Mike S usually opines that we will not know the real position until after all the conferences, and well into October. That seems right to me.
The conference season is not like an election campaign, though, as the other parties usually do not attack the party having its conference too openly. Brown tried to upstage the Tories, but a lot of good that did him because in breaking the convention he laid himself open to attack. And he got it with both barrels.
come the campaign the rebuttals will fly fast and furious, the air war will be bloody and the ground campaign for the Tories will be based on solid preparation over a couple of years. Long live Ashcroft.
timmo where did you hear about the printers?
Presumably, as Tory private polling shows Lib Dem voters being won over by the Overseas Aid/Feed the Poor pledge, the Lib Dem polling shows similar voters responding oppositely to the Tories IHT/Feed the Rich policies.
It would certainly explain some of the focus this week.
15-From someone who works there.
Tend to concur with witan (a rare event) that it’s a mug’s game trying to draw conclusions based on polls in the conference season. People are actually paying some attention and one major success or blunder can change a good deal. But it’s interesting that the LD conference wasn’t the flop that many here thought. I think many people quite *want* to like the LDs at the moment - there’s a segment that is fed up with us, don’t really like the Tories, can’t stomach the BNP so…er… “let’s have another look at that fellow Clegg”.
To reply to tim on the last thread re German polls - I don’t know how they handle don’t knows (the ‘Sonstige’ row is minor parties). Some of the polls distinguish between “projection” and “political mood”, where the former is smoothed for long-term trends and previous allegiance (e.g. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/gms.htm ) where others distinguish between the former GDR (where the ex-communists joust with the CDU for first place) and the former West Germany (where they’re last of the main parties), e.g. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/allensbach.htm .
The most obvious difference from UK polls is their astonishing stability. A move of more than 2% for any party is most unusual, and even normal MOE movement seems to occur less than you’d statistically expect.
18 - I’ve heard figures of between 20 an 30% Don’t knows banded about, but couldn’t get to the bottom of it.
Hence betting a minimum.
David, when you say that it’s a bad thing for all 3 leaders that they’re not as popular as their parties, couldn’t it actually be something of a boon to Cameron/the Tories? One of the less sophisticated, and hence more successful (sadly the way it seems to work in modern politics) attacks of Labour/the LDs has been “sure you might like Cameron, but the party behind him is unchanged and still the nasty party of the 90s”. Doesn’t this sort of polling undermine that argument?
Although, playing Devil’s Advocate with myself, I’m not sure how much of a good strategy it’d be for any politician to acknowledge they’re not as popular as their party. As weak an idea as Nick Clegg telling people not to vote for him if they don’t like his policies.
Stop going on about women’s rights, Prescott tells Harman
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stop-going-on-about-womens-rights-prescott-tells-harman-1793485.html
New Swedish poll shows left a point points ahead - still much too close to call a year away:
http://www.thelocal.se/22172/20090919/
- minor company, but shows very similar picture to the leading SIFO insistue’s poll last month.
21. Will Harriet retaliate by telling Prescott to stop eating pies? Roughly equal chance of success.
“a point points” = “a few points”. Durr.
o/t, and sitting her in oz.
watching channel 4 over net, joined a derren brown story half way thru, presumably missed all the subliminal messages and by jove i imagined stonehenge for some reason when i saw a picture.
why that happened i do not know.
anyone else normally sensible do that?
i am kinda scientific so this has got me bamboozled.
as for the blind guy cycling around and clicking like a bat, maybe there is something in all this psychobabble.
25 - After the disappointingly poor “predict the lottery numbers”, I haven’t bothered to tune in.
TTTTIIIIMMMMBBBBEEEERRRR!
Swingback is King….
Faites vos jeux, messieursdames, faites vos jeux!
27. 50 seat majority Rod
With ‘unknowns’ taking 15%,with the Tory lead at 13%,more or less matching polls for the last 8 weeks..
May 6th 2010 is 32 weeks less two days.
Harold Wilosn stated ‘a week is along time in politics’
Even accepting over-performance in marginals,the swingback to a c.6/7% Tory lead is NOT huge.
Fair enough,the Tories might finally win after 3 terms out (after ‘79-’97 it should have been two human lifetimes!),but hey ho,lets see what (and doubtless much will to keep us amused!),over the next six months!
Repost as I missed new thread!
The Scottish Sun is really getting behind its columnist. Another full double spread towards the front of the paper (pages 8/9)
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2655737/John-Smeaton-launches-bid-to-become-MP.html
29 - Didn’t he do a turn at the Labour Party Conference a couple of year ago?
28. Not sure I believe in swingback (well, I’d have to understand it first) but it odd that there is quite so much confidence about a Tory victory when the gap between the two parties would only have to narrow modestly for us to be back into hung parliament territory.
31 I’m sure you were jesting,Harold Wilson died aged 79 in May 1995
31 I’m sure you were jesting,Harold Wilson died aged 79 in May 1995
31 - If you believe in UNS models and RodCrosby’s voodoo theory.
“It makes you wonder what a really successful conference might have achieved.”
Alternatively - if other pollsters get the same thing - it might make you wonder whether our group of right-wing political obsessives telling each other what they want to hear really has its collective finger on the pulse of the nation…
Steve Richards:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-why-labour-has-a-strong-case-to-make-1793515.html
30. He did indeed, and sported his familiar unconvincingly humble “I’m just an ordinary guy fae Glasgow” look when he was ‘coaxed’ to accept the plaudits.
Interesting that he’s been mainly gunning for Labour so far, but I suppose that just reflects the territory. Apparently his press conference was an absolute trainwreck, though, and not even the Scottish Sun could bring themselves to entirely gloss over that!
31. Red Meteor.
The confidence probably comes from the expectation that a Con share of 40%+ is a virtual guarantee of a majority, and in around three-quarters of polls this year they’ve been at that level - and in all bar the infamous ComRes 30% “others” poll they’ve had a double-digit lead over Labour.
32. Of course there won’t be a UNS but I find it very hard to believe there won’t still be a very significant bias in the electoral system in Labour’s favour.
33 - Heretic.
People are desperate for Tory Govt.
37. RM.
Well, maybe so - but it’s already incorporated into the assumptions (Con need 40+ or a 10 point lead; Labour only need to be level).
35 - Yeah some of his replies are a little bit weak. One of the things I found interesting was the 72-year-old man suggesting that it is good that he’s young.
39. Well, yes, but they actually need to be at 40% on election day, not at 40% or only just above in opinion polls six months out. They don’t have as much of a comfort zone as it sometimes appears. If by any chance Alan Johnson becomes PM, if anything I’d say a hung parliament looks like the most probable outcome.
timmo it may just be a sensible precautionary move as Tory HQ can see the logic as much as we can.
But Brown can’t. He will probably cling on as long as possible. Unless the resignation speech Polly wrote is for after the election and an emergency Labour leadership conference.
I would love an election in October. But not putting any money on it.
Gordon Brown: dead man walking, The Daily Telegraph poll shows
” The poll shows that the great majority of voters no longer take the present government seriously. They have written off both it and the Prime Minister.
There are mutterings ahead of Manchester that Labour is doomed with Mr Brown in command; our poll suggests that, with support marooned in the mid-20s, they are doomed either way. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/6231141/Gordon-Brown-dead-man-walking-The-Daily-Telegraph-poll-shows.html
Yes some voters are desperate for a change of government not just a change of Leader.
red meteor, the fact smeato was up supporting labour begs the question why apart from the expenses matters why he is standing.
if he stood as an independent labour candidate or as a REAL labour candidate who is not nicking expenses money or whatever it would make sense as he is dyed in the wool labour politically.
the expenses saga means there labour needs to be more accountable, whether smeato is the answer is debateable. he did admit the other bloke with him did well but get none of the publicity so a decent streak in the lad.
imagine a labour pollie giving credence to others where it meant they lost out…..that would be a first.
the tongan lady will make some money from her story one way or another. labour do not wnat her being the main news story at conference time. expect clifford to say the story is being dropped and they have reconciled. he is supporting labour for the long term….
is she allowed to stay here as an illegal? is a deal being done to keep her quiet? well it would almost be a first if an illegal was thrown out just because they were acting in a criminal manner.
45 Unless the writ is moved by next Tuesday (the last date that would allow a pre-clocks-go-back )October 22nd poll,then I’m afraid next spring it will be!
41. RM.
If we could see the future, we’d be somewhat richer!
Yes, there are possible events that could move the polls decisively - but the reason that the markets are so heavily in favour of a Tory majority is that the polls have been indicating such an outcome for nearly all of the last 18 months.
the tongan lady will make some money from her story one way or another. labour do not wnat her being the main news story at conference time. expect clifford to say the story is being dropped and they have reconciled. he is supporting labour for the long term….
by redcliffe62 September 26th, 2009 at 1:22 am
Doubt it as they need the money for lawyers if not living or leaving.
Watch out for Monday. Will it be the Sun what does it for Scotland?
43 - It is remarkable that with Brown at the helm the Tories are below 40%.
Mr Herdson, I wouldn’t be too quick to eat any humble pie over this poll. The Libdems did have a bad conference, and we saw some real fault lines developing. These have not been resolved, and so therefore neither has their policies about to go into a GE manifesto.
This was the Libdems big week in the news, and they should have done better than this.
No Cameron or the Conservatives, Brown on the world stage, and the Libdems in Bournemouth. No surprises in this poll. Labour to go next, and then we finish with the Tories. Polls during the Conference season are a mugs game. Ask Gordon Brown, he bottled a GE because he thought he was going to win it after his first one back in 2007.
Come a GE, it will be Cameron, ? and Clegg with Vince Cable’s strings attached.
47.No media coverage for Cameron or the Conservatives. Margin of error and Labour on 26%, the words straws and clutching come to mind.
OT - What on earth is this..
“Swine flu prompts changes to Mental Health Act
Wednesday 23rd September 2009
The government plans to rush through measures allowing people with suspected mental health issues to be quickly detained because of fears over staff shortages in any forthcoming swine flu outbreak, it has been revealed.
The temporary changes to the Mental Health Act, as laid out in an unusually short consultation lasting just one month, would mean it would only take one doctor, rather than two, to have a person sectioned and put on medication without their consent.”
http://www.managementinpractice.com/default.asp?title=SwineflupromptschangestoMentalHealthAct&page=article.display&article.id=18628
45. I know what you mean, but I can’t help wondering if it doesn’t also reflect a lack of knowledge about the mountain the Tories have to climb due to the electoral system.
44. Redcliffe, I don’t share your good opinion of Smeaton, but one positive effect of his candidacy is to inject some life into the by-election, which until now hasn’t been attracting as much excitement as Glasgow East or Glenrothes. Interesting what David said about the 71-year-old liking a young candidate - in that case I hope the SNP have got their candidate’s photo prominent in their election leaflets, because although he’s a bit older than Smeaton, he looks much younger!
Still MoE stuff, although I think the starting rate of tax at £10k may have moved some voters, but mid conference season not something to jump up and down about.
To a degree I agree with RM. I’d be very surprised if Tories get above 350 seats. So from there a hung parliamentvis not to far away. It pays not to be complacent
49. ChristinaD.
Well, quite. It’s the first poll in two months to see the Conservatives sub-40 - and the Others are still several points higher than they will end up.
It pays not to be complacent
by astateofdenmark September 26th, 2009 at 1:37 am
Who is complacent?
54 I would rest-assured that this is scare-mongering cr@p writing at its worst/best on the grounds:
(a)I have been sectioned,once,and it took half an hour to arrange the Social Worker and Approved Social Worker to co-incide and sign the Section 2 1983 MHA Act
(b)Swine flu,at some level,will/already has affected c/1 % (ie 600,000) people-I had a smallish dose for the last few calendar days of July,took it a bit easier,and am back to my jolly self!
(c)Mental health is an issue that needs more forward looking policies from across the spectrum-all three,Labour,Lib Dems and Tories have failed somewhere.
One good thing about Bournemouth is that there is a ‘halfway house’,between thos who need in-patient care and those who,whilst maybe needing a place of safety at night,can have autonomy in the day.
I hope ,in the likely event of an incoming,bright and positive David Cameron Tory govt,that mental health wil be an issue a more green with a small ‘g’,liberal with a small ‘l’,Tory PM would take onside for many vunerable people,whoa re less fortunate than me
54&55.”Who is complacent?”
LS&Witan, I cannot get excited about the polls over the this three weeks. Tories down -2 with no coverage, not even out of margin of error territory. This is not a GE campaign, when they are all vying for the most positive media coverage at the height of a GE with a date with the ballot box firmly fixed in voters minds, then I get excited and worry about a point here and there.
Nite all.
I am not sure that Gordon Brown steping down as PM will do the Labour party much good. If the general public see Brown getting a big job and going to live in the US leaving the country in a mess they will take their anger out on the Labour party.
Alan Johnson maybe a nice man but I dont think he wants to be PM.
As regards the poll when was the field work carried out.? Was it before the Brown/Obama kitchen meeting.
Why was Obama hanging around in the kitchen anyway?
Having skimmed through the last few threads, it is clear that:
(a) there is an ENORMOUS gulf between the perceptions of those of us who read what Martin Day wrote 24 hours ago, and the suppositions, or imaginings of those who didn’t;
(b) there is a big difference between what the owner of a website needs to do, or is legally required to do, for the purpose of avoiding legal difficulties or maintaing order within a forum discussion, and the question of what needs to be done at a human and social level to help someone who is in distress and who may deserve some level of sympathy.
Those of you who did not read the exact words of what Martin Day wrote should bear in mind these differences. It might help if you imagine the difference between an angry rhinoceros stamping on a small fluffy kitten, and a small frustrated kitten scratching the ankle of a rhinoceros.
50. Would a change like that have to go through parliament? If so, I trust the opposition parties and crossbenchers would combine to block it in the Lords - there could hardly be a bigger human rights issue than that.
UKPA
Mr Clifford said: “The whole thing has been very upsetting for Lolo and for Alex. There have been some pretty dreadful things written about their relationship.”
He said he did not know details of how Ms Tapui came to be working for the Attorney General when she had no legal right to do so, adding: “There are only three people that do know - Baroness Scotland and Lolo and Alex.”
Daily Mail
As Labour delegates began gathering in Brighton last night for their final conference before the general election, the Attorney General’s former housekeeper, Loloahi Tapui, was preparing to sell her story to a Sunday newspaper.
Miss Tapui’s agent, the publicist Max Clifford, said his client’s story was ‘very different’ to the version of events in the public domain.
58. “Alan Johnson maybe a nice man but I don’t think he wants to be PM.”
Which is just one reason why I suspect he might actually be quite a popular PM. He also has just the right personal qualities to take on Cameron - Brown, Harman and Miliband don’t, to put it mildly.
Would a change like that have to go through parliament?
by Red Meteor September 26th, 2009 at 1:51 am
Like too many things, including EU legislation, it will probably be done by secondary legislation with a device such as an order in council so parliament will get no direct say.
I suppose all publicity is good publicity, even when you’re essentially a protest movement, without anything to say. 3% is disappointingly weak, by the standards of conference bounces, isn’t it? Roll on the Labour and Tory conferences.
60. Red Meteor. I must admit I came to the same conclusion. I’m not sure these are the sort of things that should be messed with at short notice and without proper analysis and scrutiny.
61 - Clifford also said something that Tapui likes Baroness Scotland a lot….
I posted the exact quote on previous thread I think.
Tbh I really think this poll has everything to do with the fact the Lib Dems got some sheer actual press coverage and were noticed rather than any of their messages from the conference. Of course the real proof will be in the polls post all the party conferences.
@59
A (cache)reader writes :
“LooneyRhinoceros stamps on Small Fluffy Kitten..”
small parties on 15%. that could be ukip on 5%. tories in trouble.
David Kerr, the SNP candidate, is one handsome chap!
58: It seems to me it is a hard job to do. Look at Brown he has wanted to be PM all his life and he has made a right mess of doing the Job.
The UK is in such a mess I dont see how a man who does not want the job can take the hard decisions the country needs.
60 / 53 / 65
It looks as if the consultation period end Oct 7th. I hate reushed legislation as it always leads to complete b@lls up.
“Mental health charities have outlined concerns on proposed temporary changes to the detention of patients under the Mental Health Act in the event of a pandemic flu outbreak.
Rethink and Mind warned that patient safeguards could be compromised after the Department of Health yesterday issued consultative proposals to ensure Mental Health Act functions could be maintained should a flu outbreak trigger severe staff shortages.
The consultation, which is unusually short, closes on 7 October and would lead to the introduction of emergency legislation in the early autumn.”
http://www.communitycare.co.uk/Articles/2009/09/11/112558/swine-flu-charities-concerned-over-mental-health-act-plans.html
and sure enough
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Consultations/Liveconsultations/DH_103683
I’m not sure whether this will be rushed through via a SI but I personally find it very worrying indeed.
Cameron must weep.
The LibDems announce a number of conflicting policies and one really half-baked idiotic scheme and the public like it.
Labour suffer a week that must have finished off poor old Brown, but still one in four of us love Labour.
As for the Mental Health Act, this now enables arrest and indefinite detention by the state based on the opinion of a policeman and 2 doctors, with not a legal process in sight. And still everyone says, “We’re not a police state yet”. We are now.
73 - ONE doctor. Actually I know a GP who would more than happily sign the form for one GB.
In a previous thread, someone said that they hadn’t realised that Michael Foot is still alive. He’s expected to live to 98ish, and has a 23% chance of reaching 100:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=life+expectancy+man+age+96
(OT) Someone’s had some fun with photos of Our Great Leader at Norwich North:
http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4532430&tt=s
There’s a nice little series in the Guardian with politicians interviewing journalists
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/series/question-time-politicians-interview-pundits
And a long sympathetic interview with Alan Johnson
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/26/alan-johnson-labour-leadership-interview
84 - softening us up eh ?
Baroness Scotland’s house has been robbed of jewels and cash
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2656035/Baroness-Scotlands-home-robbed-of-cash-and-jewellery.html
84 That’s a very interesting interview. Not sure it’s sympathetic at all.
86. Hmmm. I wonder what else was “lost.”
88 - He (GB) should have shut this down straight away. It sounds pretty fishy, doesn’t say a break in just missing items. Sounds to me like it’s getting dirty.
WRT swingback, it’s fair to assume that Labour’s vote share in a general election will be better than its worst poll rating during the course of the Parliament. It’s also clear that the Conservatives’ lead over Labour reached its highest point in the Summer of 2008.
However, it still looks overwhelmingly likely that the Conservatives are heading for a very big win over Labour. ICM’s polling suggests that there is very little shift between poll ratings in the Autumn and the following year’s general election.
Quiet… too quiet…
This is very much a ‘dog bites man’ kind of a poll.Party gets post-conference poll boost.
Nothing to see here,folks.Move on.
The answer to Mike’s question is: Yes. The Liberal Democrats did have a good conference.
Tory spoilers on PBC serve only to reinforce one another’s views and to increase the general level of spitefulness. Consequently anybody interested in betting would have to weigh the comments by political background (as opinion polls have to) and would have to place their bets accordingly.
The Lib Dem Conference in Bournemouth was generally very upbeat. Journalists have to look for interesting stories which reinforce their predetermined line - everybody knows that.
But the amount of venom that Tory posters on PBC are currently spitting out at the Liberal Democrats - in such a coordinated fashion too - suggests that they are more worried than they would care to show.
93
Now I’m confused: am I a “complacent” Tory or a “worried” Tory ? The idea that I, sitting in my semi in Staffordshire, am being co-ordinated by the great evil Tory machine is risible.
94
You’re just in denial. At heart, you know that the Lib-Dem way is the true path. Follow the yellow brick road!
Curious @ 93. Right and wrong.I agree totally with the thrust of your post but consider this.
The most balanced poster on pb.com is David Herdson and he gave the LDC the big thumbs down as did Mike Smithson, who himself is a Lib Dem.
My own reaction was to downgrade them from 49.0 Seats to 47.0 Seats and what can’t speak can’t lie.
I don’t think this poll is other than marginally significant.
I agree with others that this poll is exactly what we should expect following a LD conference which was quite anti-Tory.
93. I don’t think it’s just Tories who’ve had their feelings hurt that are criticising the LD conference. I’ve seen it from Labour supports and (supposedly neutral) political commentators too.
Lifting people earning £10k and under out of income tax is always going to hugely popular nationally. On the other hand it is unfunded, and we are in a recession where we’re going to struggle to pay for schools and hospitals. The mansion tax didn’t come close to covering the cost, but would also probably be popular with most people.
The party didn’t appear that united although it wasn’t chaos. Overall, a mixed conference. If they had made a bigger deal of the 10k allowance and appeared a bit more united we could be looking at +5 for the LDs now.
What I do find interesting is how things will progress from here. Labour is in turmoil and seem to be looking inwards. The Lib Dems are attacking the Tories rather than the government. Perhaps they have resigned themselves to losses at the next election, but positioning themselves as the anti-Tory opposition party after that, so that in Cameron manages two terms and Labour implodes then they can become the official opposition in 2015?
I dont think any Conservative is complacent.
“Anti-social behaviour ‘not police job’
A senior police officer told the inquest into the deaths of a family terrorised by a gang of youths that it was not the responsibility of police to tackle anti-social behaviour.” Daily Mail.
Superintendent Steve Harrod, speaking at the inquest of a mother and her disabled daughter who were hounded to their deaths by yobs, said it is now the responsibility of local councils since a law change in 1998.
Re: John Smeaton - I actually spent a fair bit of time with him at Labour party conference, and he was a lovely, genuine guy, whose modesty wasn’t at all pout on or fake. I really liked him. (His agent wasn’t so lovely, but that’s the nature of the beast I think, and he’s certainly done well for his client).
Anyway, no particular reason for this post other than i thought it might be nice to say something nicve about a political opponent for once!
URW has said it all on this poll at 92 and 96.
Just a minor statistical note.
Although the change in the Lib Dem score is within the margin of error, it does allow us to rule out the possibility that the Lib Dem score fell. This might seem an odd and weak statement to make, but it does contradict a lot of comment on this board from the last week.
You can’t normally make such a statement from one poll (eg with the Labour score it’s possible - though unlikely - that their support went up a point, but that this poll was an underestimate of their support, and the previous poll an over-estimate)
102 we need a new thread then!
104 - To be a little more constructive, it will be very interesting to see what post-conference boost Labour get. The Lib Dems could expect one, all other things being equal, because they aren’t in the forefront of the public’s mind much most of the time. Views of Labour are, if this poll is to be believed, much more settled. Can Labour hope for a 3% boost in their ratings?
The problem, URW, is that people who are not at a conference see only what is reported in the media: debates in the main hall, and reports and interviews from journalists, which are inevitably partial. So, with all due respect to David Herdson and OGH, who were not there (I think), their impressions are limited and come ready filtered.
Up until now, Cameron has had an easy time of it. He has presented the Conservatives as the only alternative to Labour, and himself as the only prime minister in waiting. He has not had to do or say anything in particular - just not being Gordon Brown has been sufficient.
Now along comes Nick Clegg, who says in his speech - several times - that he wants to be prime minister and even says why. Which is more than Cameron has done.
This is followed by a story in the press that the Liberal Democrats are to up their game and target 200 seats - presumably in addition to the 63 seats already held. Suddenly the Liberal Democrats are starting to present themselves as a government in waiting.
For ages, Conservative posters on PBC have been telling Lib Dems that we ought to be going after Labour. It appears that we are. But thank you for the advice anyway. But gooing after Cameron’s Consrvative Party as well.
And the Lib Dem “love bombing” campaign towards previously Labour voters seems to be much stronger than the Conservative campaign. Whereas Mr Pickles just proclaims that Liberal Democrats are really Conservatives and always have been - and that’s a really good message for Lib Dems to send to soft Tory voters: thank you Mr Pickles - Nick Clegg has been demonstrating to Labour voters for years now that he is as anti-Tory as they are.
We shallhave to see just how this all works out over the next few months (or weeks as the case may be).
105 antifrank
Yes. That was roughly the G20 boost if I remember correctly.
30. David, It will need a lot more than the SUN to help him. Fine if you read all the rubbish in the papers about him being a hero , but when you see him on TV it becomes clear he is as thick as mince, has no clue , and would be even worse than teh usual Labour donkey elected, if that is at all possible. However it does increase the SNP’s chances as it will distract some of the Labour cannon fodder away.
107 - In which case, we might be looking back at this thread next week:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/03/23/will-we-see-a-brown-bounce-iii-before-the-election/
[105] - I think that, if you look at all previous years, you will probably find that Labour, indeed every party, have always received a post-conference poll boost. We can probably write some of the less historically aware comment pieces right now, given that there is a goodish chance of Labour reducing the gap to less than 10% [shocking, eh?].
I suppose the most important comparison would be with the Tory conference of 1996. Does anyone want to check the dates of that conference and look at the poll archives?
Those of a sensitive disposition please do not follow the link below, it shows two people very much in love with each other but it might upset some people…
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46446000/jpg/_46446703_007373350-1.jpg
No party, as yet, has really said just HOW, they are going to deal with the massive deficit we have. Putting forward tax neutral policies doesn’t cut it for me, even if those policies are admirable. It ’s all very well rearranging the furniture, but when the roof is missing something more tangible has to be done. The LibDems didn’t really address this.
I expect Labour will also promise the 10k starting rate for taxation, as it’s a vote winner along with various other populist items. But, hang on a minute, this is going to hurt, we are in deep poo and the sooner everyone realises that it will affect them personally the better.
I’m still optimistic that we’ll start to see something more tangible from the Conservatives, but I’ll be very upset if I see the GE being fought on the same old battlegrounds.
93. Is that a spoof?
Regarding Yougov, why don’t they insert a certainty to vote question?, they do on some of their other surveys. Perhaps a point to put to them.
109 - What a movement on the cusp of the MoE would be classed as a bounce? Well I suppose given the phenomenally low expectations!!
64. Johnny , excellent post , I did not see what Martin wrote , however it has been obvious over the last month or so from some of his rants that he has not been well. Hopefully he gets over his current problems and gets back on an even keel.
114 - Maybe we need sub-categories. Beneath a bounce, we might have a bob. Beneath a bob we might have an eyebrow-flicker.
Ed Balls makes clear that Brown’s interest in television should be focused on holding a pre-election debate with David Cameron. “The more debates the better. David Cameron is better at reading out a script than discussing the detail of policy,”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/26/ed-balls-labour-general-election
Off topic, the Times is specialising today in articles telling us who it would be unwise to tax and cut:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6850114.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6850124.ece
The content of each is interesting, but more interesting still is the fact that these intelligent writers may intellectually recognise that tax rises and cuts are coming, but they’re still in a NIMBYist mindset. If this is true of Matthew Parris and Joan Bakewell, how much truer is this going to be of the general public?
Another Ed Balls story in the Guardian.
Labour party conference: Balls calls on Brown to answer the doubters
Schools secretary urges the PM to be ‘authentic’, and says the choice between the parties will be ’stark’ in the next election
He;s also dissing Mandy by the looks of it
“Peter does the razzmatazz,” Balls says. “But Gordon is who he is. Gordon is at his strongest when he is being authentic. The times when it doesn’t work is when he is not being himself or just being more cautious.”
The first sentence in this article is not for the faint of heart.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/26/ed-balls-brown-labour-conference
116 - Yes but in Brown and Labour’s case all such sub-categories need to be prefixed with “dead cat”.
87 I thought it was a sympathetic write up but that the writer did not believe Johnson had it (the link on the front page does say “Decca Aitkenhead is not convinced”. Her final summary is damning
“Johnson would provide light relief after Brown. But unless he is deliberately concealing a much more strategic side, from what I could see it might turn out to be very light indeed.”
It seems to me that Mike thinks this latest YouGov poll is flawed in several respects - read his analysis carefuly.
YouGov has always given more weight to Labour as a matter of course.
67% out of 100 on voting intentions lookes like an intentional miss. How can nearly a third of of those polled be left out otherwise. Havn’t trusted Kellner for years now.
re 113. Because YouGov polls from its panel rather than randomly from the electorate as a whole there’s a sense that those who take part have a greater interest in the political process and are therefore more likely to vote.
You might conclude from that this means that YouGov samples are not properly representative of the electorate as a whole. The firm’s response to this is to say - look at our record - and it is hard to argue with that.
re 122. I think you have misunderstood my observation. The 67% related to those who were asked about leader.
123 - Given that fact then the Lib Dems Conference was clearly less of a car crash than many on here assumed.
If You Gove samples those most likely to be paying attention anyway then solely brand recognition is less likely to be having an impact.
Clegg will be reasonably pleased with this.
Perhaps kicking rich greedy inexperienced Tories is a good strategy after all.
125 - “Perhaps kicking rich greedy inexperienced Tories is a good strategy after all”
Wasn’t that strategy tested to destruction at the Crewe and Nantwich by election?
125 - I think that we really need to wait until after all the conferences before we make any real judgement about them. Otherwise we are in danger of awarding the Gold medal before all the high jumpers have jumped.
Good Morning England Cricketing One -day Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide.
Meanwhile …. The enigma of the LibDem polling or not. Those of us who noted the machinations of the apparent train wreck of the yellow peril gathering might at first be scratching our collective heads and wondering if Labour did the same and more it might overtake Cammeron in the polls !!
Not so. As I indicated at the time whilst we at PB digest the very entrails of every micro movement of the political world and sometimes ascribe to it somewhat more meaning than the fall of western civilization, more normal folk simply view the evening news bulletins and recognized that the young, somewhat telegenic Nick Clegg was in the shop making some pleasing noises.
Accordingly - small Lib Dem electoral bounce in Chile. Nobody hurt.
125 It will appeal to some, as will the IHT jibes, Eton yadda yadda and the like.
The question is how many it switches compared to how many Tory votes it hardens as they seek at all costs to keep out what appears to be the ‘left united’. Certainty to vote it fairly important - the Tories are solid around the 40 mark and frankly if they stay there will be happy for the Lib Dems to harden their vote to 20 or so - it squeezes the government out of any possible recovery to hung parliament territory.
Tory 40, Lib Dem 20 = Tory majority, Tory 38, Lib Dem 20 = probable small Tory majority
125 - your post is what I was about to say plus add on a couple of weeks to see how the dust settles.
126 - That wa
a.A crass campaign.
b.In very different economic circumstances.
The sight of Osborne and Cameron wishing, as Cable put it I think, to “protect their own” while the rest share the pain, is far more powerful in a recession.
Looking at Matthew Parris’ article and the views of some on here the wealthiest must be protected at all costs.
If Osborne is some master strategist then he will address this, drop the IHT pledge and outline some tax changes that don’t exclude the wealthiest.
I think the damage to the Lib Dems from their Conference will be more long-term than it has been short-term. Their one figure who routinely got good and extensive publicity, St Vince of Cable, has been revealed as a shallow, egotistical purveyor of half-baked ideas, and, for good measure, he has antagonised lots of people in areas like Richmond where they desperately need to shore up their support. The short-term damage seems to have been limited, I suppose because anybody who supports the Lib Dems never really expects anything they say or do to make any difference to the real world anyway, unless it is picked up by one of the serious parties.
Amazing poll really, given the shambolic nature of the Lib Dem conference. People really don’t follow these things closely or intelligently do they?!
It seems that mere name recognition is enough to get the Lib Dems up in the polls. Remarkable, since they were exposed as divided, directionless and disorganised.
I guess similar bounces would be expetced for the other parties in the next couple of weeks?
130 - Posts 132/3 illustrate my point perfectly.
Imagine each party conference offers 6 free punches to land. The LibDems have used theirs as follows: 4 at the Tories; 1 at Labour (the Nick Clegg speech being broadly equivalent in directing fire at both Labour and the Tories, unlike the speeches which went before); and one at themselves (St. Vince walking himself into a haymaker to the head).
We can expect the Labour Conference to throw 5 of its six punches at the Tories; with one at Harriet Harman (but that one is the not inconsiderable “Fist of Fury” that is John Prescott).
And the Tories? My guess is five at Labour, one at UKIP. The net outcome is that the LibDems have landed four punches at the Tories without reply; and one at Labour, again without reply. Set against that, one self-inflicted black eye. So over the Conference cycle, you’d expect a bit of an uplift for the LibDems. And as expected, everyone gangs up on the Tories. Even standing still will be quite an achievement for the Tories over the Conference cycle.
However, that ignores the fact that Eric “Love-bomber” Pickles is sending the LibDem voters chocolates and roses…
133, indeed. Although if the Tories or Labour have as bad a conference (which I doubt) they’ll get a far greater hammering than Cable and Clegg and Skinhead Huhne got.
132 - The local papers are full of La Kramer and the LibDem council desperately trying to distance themselves from the Sage of Twickenham!
PSJ - Serious parties? Not by Labour and the Conservatives then?
136 - Labour might come close to the Lib Dem calamity, the Conservatives are much much hungrier for success than either so will be disciplined.
Not paying attention, Morris. The Liberal Democrats had a good conference.
134 yes tim but what you are missing is the effect the other way - naturally with exposure there will be some who rally to whatever the call. However wat remains to be seen is what the ‘anti’ effect is - those that were turned off by Clegg’s weakness over tuition fees, or Cable’s ‘tax on London families’ - yes some people will love wealth taxes, but some won;t and ther ewill also be a hardening on the right against it - the right is in the lead, it is for them to fall back, not now be caught. There is little evidence of flakiness above the high 30s in the Tory vote.
Lib Dems have been boosted, but we have seen them boosted before. Let’s see if this is maintained before we decide that Mansion taxes and Tory bashing are a long term winner.
131 tim
I agree. The IHT cut is the weakest link in Tory policy at the moment. It was a masterstroke at the time, but looks dated now.
It can easy be dropped to an aspiration, probably with far less pain than Nick Clegg’s tuition fees u-turn.
As Antifrank says, URW has hit the nail on the head, as usual. 47 seats looks about right. Shadsy, 5/1 that SNP get more seats than Lib Dems (GB-wide).
140 Then, curious, I sincerley hope the LibDems have such a “good” set of General Election results.
“Taxi for the Liberal Democrats!”
(By the way, you were supposed to hand the rose-tinted spectacles back as you left the Conference Hall…)
106. But almost all the British public weren’t at the Lib Dem conference either so will have formed their impression the same way. I’ve not been to a Tory conference for a few years (since 2005) but know that how they are related in the media and how those present feel it’s going can be two quite different things.
Both matter. If activists get depressed or motivated by a conference, that will feed through in terms of local activity over the next few weeks or even months; more importantly, if the media say it’s been a poor conference then the public will probably agree - they have little basis on which to disagree.
Except on this occasion, we might be guilty of overanalysis. I still maintain that the Lib Dem conference was something of a missed opportunity but clearly not as missed as I first thought. It could be that the disagreement and mixed messages were so far down the media agenda that the public didn’t notice and it was (a) being reminded that the Lib Dems exist and (b) the Mansion Tax and 10k Income Tax proposals that got through.
As Mike says in his update upthread and in the leader, this is one of the the best Lib Dem scores with YouGov (and the worst Tory score since Others got their Euro/Expenses boost). It’s almost certainly more than a statistical flicker, though it may be a publicity flicker - we’ll see where they settle back down to after all the conferences are over.
133
People follow these things ‘perceptually’.
They are taught to by the media
Same goes for PMqs.
Politicians get away with a load of t***k that would see executives of a company frogmarched out of the revolving doors by armed security.
Really its about time the media (and the BBC, especially) stopped affording these liars a deference they do not deserve
131 Tim, By just concentrating on the haves versus the have-nots aren’t you missing some of the nuances. The super-rich have done very well under Labour. The tax breaks for private equity companies and the ‘light and limited regulation’ of the financial sector are but two obvious examples. George Osborne’s proposal to require those with non-dom status to pay an annual levy was greeted with hysterics by Labour, who in response introduced a much watered-down scheme. Brown and more especially Blair seemed to suspend any critical faculties when approached by businessmen. Every threat or claim for special treatment has been taken at face value. Labour displayed a combination of naivety and unseemly fawning.
Contrast the treatment of the middle class with that of the super-rich. More of their income is taken up with tax and NIC. When the tax rate for large companies was reduced by 2% in 2008 it was increased by 3% for small companies. Final salary pension schemes have almost disappeared in the private sector. If they use Independent Schools, fees have risen much faster than inflation. Large parts of central London have been priced beyond their means. They don’t want the cost and inconvenience of setting up trusts. These are the professional people, managers in large companies and owners of small businesses who’ve lost out. And they are very prominent in Tory associations. That Osborne planned to pay for the rise in the IHT threshold by a levy on non-doms added piquancy to the dish.
Just been YouGov’d on voting intention, what do I think of Gordon as a leader/liability potential to Labour/is in touch with people like me.
Also asked if I’ll be watching his speech/willing to participate in immediate feedback survey following it.
Wonder who it was commissioned by?!?!?
135 The mere fact that the Lib Dems have been in the media (all day long on R5, in the news, articles in the papers) to the exclusion of the other parties - though the Government did get into the headlines with Lady Scotland and Gordon’s harassment of Obama - accounts for a higher poll rating. The same will happen with Labour and then the Conservatives.
What is said, what policies expounded may add or subtract from the inevitable Conference bounce. IMHO had the Liberal Democrats found a strong message their bounce could well have been higher set against a poor week ft Labour and virtually invisible Conservatives.
What we got instead was a mixed message - St Vince declares a property tax, which would only tax people in England & Wales but benefit residents of all four nations and only provide a minor part of the financing of a threshold rise, so full of holes that in an election campaign he would be as exposed as Charles Kennedy on local income tax. Its not clear what the University Fees policy is now - an aspiration for after the deficit is reduced (so 10 years time) or a pledge. Then Clegg promised “savage cuts” but no detail on where these will be or how savage (most of what Vince announced as cuts would be used to bring down thresholds). The party leadership appeared split over savagery & pessimism versus spending and optimism. They were united on Trident, but then Labour has proposed cutting the cost there and Conservatives haven’t ruled out cuts in that programme.
In 2005 the Lib Dems had two clear policies which won them votes from two voter constituencies, anti-Iraq war which saw them advance in Labour seats with large muslim populations, and anti-Top up fees which strengthened them in University seats. This time it seems to be “fairness” and “real change”, which both other parties will use so no distinctive platform emerged from Conference.
Hopefully for Lib Dems the policy forum might work out such a manifesto.
Latest best prices on month of next election:
October 18/1 (Victor Chandler, Paddy Power)
November 33/1 (Victor Chandler, Paddy Power)
December 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power)
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Febuary 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
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Nothing particularly stands out as a bargain, though I would rate March as more likely than both April and June.
I can’t follow this thread.
1. Mike. I can’t follow your explanation on YouGov’s findings that the parties are more popular than their leaders. Should one of your exclusions be inclusions?
2. John Loony. Which is Martin Day, a rhinocerous or a kitten?
3. URW. Have you downgraded the LDs from 49 to 47 seats? That level doesn’t seem consistent with you predicting SAT, 26 SEP 2009 collapse at the GE.
*** Small BETTING POST ***.
Thanks,antifrank and Stuart Dickson for your ringing endorsements.In return, here is my small tip for the day.
The ‘Cabinet Special Next Prime Minister’ market on Betfair stands at 113.6% but in reality is a whole lot closer to parity (100%).
Just by eyeballing the board you might find tasty offers among the Labour possibles to replace Gordon Brown should he resign or be deposed.
The way to go is to do an Oliver Twist and ask for more !
Obviously if you think Gordon is staying then you will ignore this advice.
tim, you have a real blind spot on IHT.
- it is a loathed tax
- the Tories got a real uplift when they said they would address this tax
- voters wil be understanding that Labour’s f*cked-up economy means changes can’t be introduced as quickly as everyone would like
- the Tories can still say IHT will be addressed gradually, by a commitment to increase the bands at which it kicks in - by (say) £100k or £150k a year. The worst cases - the smallest estates - get addressed first. TICK. And maybe some greater relaxation about making gifts with immediate effect - say to help first time buyers get on the property ladder. TICK. The greatest number of voters affected can get the comfort that they want that IHT is not a worry. TICK. The Tories are seen to be honouring their pledge. TICK. It will chime with the message that the best way out of the economic downturn is to start increasing the size of the pie again, which is done by having risk takers become wealth creaters; and that wealth creators need to be encouraged, not doubly penalised - or incentivized to go abroad. TICK. And the Non-Dom provisions can still be introduced - in full - to counter the (innumerate) argument that it is only the Tories’ “rich friends” who benefit from reducing IHT. Labour’s argument played back at them. DOUBLE TICK.
Tim’s fox shot. TRIPLE TICK.
You have misjudged Osborne if you think he has a tin ear on the potential political pitfalls in this. He will calibrate his response accordingly.
Does this show the uselessness of polls?
An amazing poll since its clear the lib dems were rubbish at their conference. But it still gives them a boost?
Normally I would not be surprised — but after this conference I am amazed.
7,90Lib Dems acheved a 4% boost with YOu Gov this time last year.
However a year on these are the changes to each party from You Gov
Con -5%,Lab +2 Lib Nil Others +3
General point that Sean makes is that polls averages at this time of year are a good indication of actual result so 42,27,19./
Think Lib Dems reult proves that if you are little known any publicity is better than no publicity.However think it could have been a much better conference and the biggest damage is the apparent U turn on tuition fees.There is a chance to reaffirm the policy of abolishing tuition fees before the GE campaign which would offset the damage done.
Finally when the confernce season is through I suspect we will be back to the similar figures to the crrent poll averages ie 42,27,19.
If YoGov is not including certainty to vote (which is critically important) they are possibly capturing comments based on “I’ll have a punt on Lib Dems” from ex-Labour people who won’t in the end vote. I think this is very likely and is why the Lib Dem strategy is flawed. If they try to attract the Labour vote by going left they start to upset the centre vote. When the ex-Labour vote doesn’t respond enough (wait for pollsters who measure with certainty to vote) then the Lib Dems go more left to attract attention. Result then is they really annoy centre vote and firm up Tory vote even further, yet they will still not pick up many ex-Lab votes.
148 That was the one I did yesterday.
151 stjohn.On the Party Line market I have indeed downgraded my offer of 49.0 to 47.0.
My own long term views are different but I need to get with the LDs because I am a heavy Seller of them with the Books.
I didn’t quite understand your post.Please clarify.
re stjohn September 26th, 2009 at 9:40 am
You are, of course, correct. I typed exclude when I meant include.
I will be forever in your debt.
Well I’m upping my Libdem % for the GE, Con 38 Lab 28 Libdem 22
Get the feeling in the ‘ol water, that Cleggie/Cable will have a good campaign.
When this is over might change the name to Gypsy-Rose Coldstone, its all in the tealeaves ‘yer know, or would be if I wasn’t a coffee drinker.
151. I think that first comment’s aimed at me. The basis for it is in the Telegraph article which gives low approval ratings for all three leaders but as I suspected, and Mike confirmed, that’s off the basis of data calculated in a different (and less generous) way from that for parties. It felt wrong that all three should be polling so poorly - Brown I could understand but Cameron and Clegg, who are both relatively inoffensive?
Is Postie on operations?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5365651/johnsons-sense-of-timing.thtml
152 “Obviously if you think Gordon is staying then you will ignore this advice”
If you think Gordon is staying, you should back Cameron, no?
This happens every year after every conference. It really does make me wonder why newspapers bother polling during the conference season. Why not just wait until the seasons over?
163 David Herdson.If you think Gordon is staying you can back Cameron with me.LOL. That 1.51 and 1.50 is one of the WORST bets on Betfair.In fact that is what prompted my small betting advice.
ALL the value in that market lies with the Labour hopefuls.
163, interesting to see the effects, but you’re right it’s fruitless to read much into them.
Last season, I think it was, Duncan Bannatyne, Dragon and Labour donor, was on This Week hilariously claiming that Brown’s speech had halved the Tory lead.
163 A poll of activists however after each one would be very useful.
166. I suppose the only thing you could say about conference season polls is that if a party’s ratings actually dropped straight after their conference that might be a bad signal. Who knows? Perhaps Labour will achieve that?
167 It would - if they were only truthful. But you’d probably just get loyalists being loyal, a mass of “Marvellous Conference darling, marvellous. I especially loved the “and he’s turning up the volume!” bit…”
Curious: thank you for a calm and dignified statement of the Lib Dem position. I was at the conference \nd found it largely upbeat.
169 Very true. Or even Nick Clegg will be the next PM
147 - I think you a perhaps being a little London centric in your analysis.
A definition of middle class that focuses on the “can’t quite keep up with the Abramoviches” may apply to certain parts of London but have little resonance elsewhere.
What percentage of the electorate we are talking about in the rest of the country will vary but if anything your argument emphasises my point, that the wealthy have done well under Labour but that an incoming Conservative Govt will enrich them further while 95% pay more, is hardly a vote winner.
The big losers (in cash terms) as far as I can see from the parties positioning at the moment will be those between £30,000 and £60,000 particularly if they have children and these are the people who in electoral terms provide a much more important definition of middle class.
The Non Dom levy seems to me to never have been added up by Osborne outside of a boom period,and at the same time now we are told Non Doms are leaving due to recession and the 50p top rate. Yet Osborne claims it will pay for IHT and Stamp Duty for First Time buyers.
I doubt anyone believes that.
153 - MM - “Times are tough so me must all share the pain, but there will be an IHT cut for the wealthiest EVERY YEAR of a Conservative Govt”
No dead fox there.
167
‘I have a dream’ that when activists are asked after the leader’s speech, what they thought of it, once, just once, one of them would say,’what a load of crap!’
tim i may be wrong about this but i gather that it was once thought on this site that you are a wealthy farmer. if that is right should you not disclose in the interst of balance when posting on IHT that you personally are exempt from it anyway?
165. Are you sure? If Brown stays through to the election, then I’d have thought that 1/2 that Cameron will be next PM is excellent value.
What could go wrong? Either Cameron has to stand down as Tory leader or the Tories have to end up in a position where they won’t form the next government. As the Conservatives could form a government in a minority position, the odds on Labour retaining power are quite heavily against (even if they do, if Brown remains in charge, the bet isn’t a loser and in a hung parliament there’s a good chance that the Leader of the Opposition could become PM during the term).
The odds on Cameron falling before May are hugely against - into triple figures - so in reality it comes down to Brown stepping down before the election or Labour retaining power.
172 - Given that my life expectancy is around 80 is see IHT neither as something that affects my economic behaviour at this moment, nor something I need to declare an interest in.
The idea that “children” inherit is so pre war.
171 “153 - MM - “Times are tough so me must all share the pain, but there will be an IHT cut for the wealthiest EVERY YEAR of a Conservative Govt”
No dead fox there.”
Looking down the wrong end of the telescope, dear thing:
“Times are tough so me must all share the pain, but there will be an IHT cut EVERY YEAR of a Conservative Govt, taking more and more people out of the hated IHT, so that only the very wealthiest estates will end up payingthis tax - a tax which further penalises families and causes them to worry how they are going to pay it, even as they mourn for a loved one….”
Fox in central carriageway of the M62, flatter than a tea-tray…
174 David Herdson.The catch is in the ‘if’ word. IF Gordon Brown stays through to the election then 1.12 Cameron Next PM would be a very tasty price.
However, we don’t know that,do we ? Just as a tempter I will offer £500 at 1.52 on the Next PM market on Betfair.
Can’t be fairer than that.
176 - Nope.
“We cannot afford this Sure Start centre because George Osbornes family desperately need the money”
“You will lose your Child Tax credit because the money is needed for the Cameron Family”
Thats a bloody big fox.
And I think Osborne will shoot it stone dead.
I think we can read this as, ‘No, no, no, Oh! alright then if I really must’
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/170324.html
175 Which rather concedes that you are rich enough to have an estate that would bear IHT in the first place. Next up - would you be required to pay Vince’s Mansion Tax?
Tim = Rich Bastard
I see the Bingo card is filling up nicely today already.
113 Woody. Yes, certainty to vote is going to be the key to the GE, with unemployment rising - a 3m. figure means at least 6m. voters will be devastated by this government’s peformance. As for the numbers, 1 in 4 voters still prefer GB and the Labour party for the next 5 years?? As Scrooge said, faced with similar irrational behaviour - “I’ll retire to Bedlam”.
180 - I’ve always voted for reasons far higher than purely financial return.
Hence my reasons for finding the Conservative Party so terribly common.
181 Now this type of fox-hunting I can endorse…!
After the LD conference, I asked myself, “What have I learned regarding LD policy?”
It confirmed that LD are:
(a) Very pro EU
(b) Very anti-war
(c) Still two parties (Lib & SD) that are not acting as one.
(d) Have no answer to the solution of UK’s economic crisis except “do not cut public sector until the economy starts to recover” - and when will that be??
The rest of their policy appears to be still in the wash, but are not sure whether it will come out as tinged with blue, red or purple!
183 Tim = Rich Bastard Snob
Are you a toff, too?
186 - No, I’m genetically unrelated to my wife.
At a refreshingly lefty dinner in Scotland I heard a charming story about DC. Not in my opinion a deal breaker but certainly insightful about the man who might be PM. Sadly I can’t divulge the story as the journalist who told it is waiting for the most opportune moment.
I was heartened that there are still movers and shakers out there who are as fearful of a Tory government as I am and unlike me still care enough to do something to lessen the inevitability.
Brogan has a post on Gordon Brown and points out that “it is becoming clear that one of Mr Brown’s problems is his increasingly acrimonious relationship with the political journalists who cover him: a man who by nature does not take easily to being questioned is in turn viewed with increasing irritation by those who have learned to doubt everything he says. Someone who spent time in Mr Brown’s company described the atmosphere as “fraught” and laced with the potential to “turn ugly”.
For Downing Street the problem is obvious: how do they communicate Mr Brown’s message if he is at daggers drawn with those through whom he is supposed to communicate?”
This week we have had intimations that Gordon Brown’s speech at Conference will attempt to draw a comparison between his mastery of the big issues of the day and Cameron’s cutting taxpayer subsidy of salads in Westminster. In his dealings with journalists I sense he cannot understand why they question him on Lady Scotland & 1:1 meetings with Obama rather than drinking in his self ordained genius at complex policy on the big Global issues.
He doesn’t comprehend that the “little” things matter because they are comprehensible and because they cast light onto the bigger picture, and in voters eyes they may not be unimportant.
188. Well, that’s me convinced. Vote Labour!
175. Tim The idea that “children” inherit is so pre war.
Are you going to tell Jade Goody’s children that?
188. “At a refreshingly lefty dinner in Scotland”
They’ve been successfully driven out of England and Wales… though I’d heard there were still a handful in a commune on the Outer Hebs!
Why do I get the impression that the drinks bill alone at that dinner would have kept a streetful of unemployed folk in Doncaster for a year?
But hey - welcome back. You’ve been missed (and missed much!).
188 Are there any lefty “movers and shakers” around any more? I thought they were all a busted flush. All eyes are on the ascendant Tories now not the clapped out left who have bankrupted the country again .
Is there a Com Res poll in the Independent on Sunday.Using swings from You Gov Lab and Lib Dems would be very close….
re 187. so you are not from Norfolk then?
195 - God no.
Even duller than Cheadle.
176: MM, personally I think the Tories will drop the ‘early cut to IHT’ commitment, downgrading it to an aspiration a la Clegg and student fees (I lost track of whether that happened or not, what is LibDem policy on that now exactly?). It’ll be intended as Cameron’s Clause 4 moment, supposedly showing seriousness about public spending.
But I agree with you about the pointlessness of an activists’ poll.
MG at 156: you overestimate how much most people think in left/right/centre terms. At the moment most floating voters are looking for coherence rather than ideology. For instance, the ‘left wing’ demands to scrap Trident, raise the higher rates of tax, renationalise trains and not sell back the banks are all quite popular, but so are the ‘right wing’ demands to cut public spending, reduce foreign aid, curb immigration, etc. But what floaters and indeed loyalists of all parties hanker after is a sense of a cohesive agenda to get us out of the perceived mess. I think it’s got to the point where people would accept a programme they didn’t actually like if they thought it added up.
Baroness Scotland’s house has been robbed of jewels and cash
by wibbler September 26th, 2009 at 4:38 am
I wonder if documentation and stuff has sadly gone missing too.
193
Ascendant Tories, ascending like Icarus perhaps.
Wings made of Osborne’s wallpaper.
195/196.Very slow there, tim. Mike made the joke of the week and you didn’t get it.
It’s hardly surprising that the Tories are well down in this poll - Cameron has been totally invisible for the last several weeks even more so than Brown during his 6 week summer break
down(only joking folks). Quite why this should be who can say, but it’s certainly not the way to go barely 7 months maximum before a General Election. In fact Brown looks rejuvenated since he returned to Downing Street and during his visit to the US, ready for the fight it would seem. Certainly The Love of Money on BBC 2 in mid-week showed him in a very good light.Is it just me or do I sense that the scales have tipped somewhat in Labour’s favour over the past week with the Tories now falling wretchedly back into the thirties in terms of voting support. Were they to drop another 2-3 percentage points, with Labour gaining similarly, then the alarm bells really would start to ring.
I feel very comfortable with my <50 seat and <100 seat majority bets about which I posted on here yesterday. If ever the time was right to bet on a NOM outcome, that time is probably now with odds of 3.5/1 available on Betfair. OK, this bet is still an unlikely winner, but it’s damn good insurance imo.
172 - Given that my life expectancy is around 80 is see IHT neither as something that affects my economic behaviour at this moment, nor something I need to declare an interest in.
this is meaningless. if we don’t know how old you are that gives you anywhere between six months and sixty years to live.
The idea that “children” inherit is so pre war.
iht is payable on any transfer, except one to your spouse. it makes no odds whether the beneficiaries are your children (or ineed “children”) or not. is there any evidence that property is left to the testator’s children less now than before some war (WW2?). I’d be interested to see it.
So now if we see a tim post about “Gideon” and iht can we take it as shorthand for: tim’s all right, jack, and pulling the ladder up after himself because he doesn’t approve of tax breaks for people who are not tim?
tim at 183 “I’ve always voted for reasons far higher than purely financial return. Hence my reasons for finding the Conservative Party so terribly common.”
A very good demonstration of one of the three main reasons why, despite being on the centre-ground and being in a relatively low income job, I’ve never been able to even consider voting for Labour - it’s that hideously infuriating superiority complex which most of their most dedicated supporters (and almost all of their MPs) seem to suffer from.
The other main reason I can’t consider them, by the way, being their formal links to the trade unions.
The third reason is that I just find their party name totally off-putting - though I think that’s probably really just part of my second reason.
200 - NFN I got.
200 Yes - OGH in a particularly playful mood today!
Maybe he’s seen some embargoed polling??!??
201. “Is it just me or do I sense that the scales have tipped somewhat in Labour’s favour over the past week with the Tories now falling wretchedly back into the thirties in terms of voting support. Were they to drop another 2-3 percentage points, with Labour gaining similarly, then the alarm bells really would start to ring.”
That might happen after the Labour conference, but it has done the last couple of years anyway. Cameron will give a well-received speech on the last day of the Conservative conference and the lead will be restored.
In fact, it may not even be an especially good speech, but the media narrative demands that it will be recorded as such by the press. Because everyone’s bored of Brown’s “comebacks”.
158. URW. I think I get you now. You no longer expect the Lib Dems to implode but you are carrying “short” positions from when you thought this would happen?
202/3 - Partly its down to my taste in women.
I’ve always found Aristocratic British women rather off putting and horse like.
Slept with one once, it was like waking up in a stable.
Ugh, I’d rather wake up with equinimity than equininity.
This IHT stuff that tim et al keep regurgitating.
The obvious counter is to point out that under the Tory proposal this tax would be levied *only* on the estates of millionaires. No-one else would have to pay it.
Vote winner IMO.
188. Welcom back Roger - a real return to form there.
201 Peter from Putney. I sort of agree and disagree with everything you say.
Coming back to the game as I did in early September and seeing GB at the TU Congress I formed the impression that he looked ok and didn’t appear like a man who was in a hurry to resign…and bet accordingly.
Regarding NOM I have two opinions.That is a benevolent market because the LAB Overall option is a non-runner which is occupying 6.66% of the whole.
So in effect you could Back BOTH of the other options and not be doing much wrong. I greatly prefer 1.40 a Tory Overall which looks like a stand out wager.
re 208 - and you ought to have heard what she said about you..
YouGov samples are not properly representative of the electorate as a whole. The firm’s response to this is to say - look at our record - and it is hard to argue with that.
by Mike Smithson September 26th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Certainly there is a feel about YouGov that is increasingly stale somehow. Can’t put my finger on it but it is there.
That is not to say they are not currently in the same zone as ICM say, but if there is a crumbling then it could suddenly gather pace and leave them with rogues as has happened to other pollsters.
It is much harder to game a phone pollster than an internet one? Any authoritative views on that?
212 - Nay and thrice neigh.
195 - I don’t think you’re enhancing the Lib Dems’ chances against Charles Clarke with comments like that. There are a surprising number of us Norfolk n good types on here too.
206 PfP - “with the Tories now falling wretchedly back into the thirties”
But at 15%, it is still a high number of “Others”. I suspect the Tories are still on 40%+ but they have had a week of pot-shots taken at them, and are about to have another. Next weekend is probably their lowest point of the cycle before the next GE. If they are in the 30’s in more than one poll after mid October they might become a little more “excitable” at CCHQ…
But the benefit of coming last in the Conference cycle is that you have seen what shots the other guys have. You have the time to tailor the response accordingly.
And people are still losing track of the monumental achievement that Cameron would have secured with a majority of even one. That the Tory majority is nailed on in most people’s minds is quite extraordinary in its own terms.
208 Now’t sexier than a posh bird saying “F*ck”…
(If anyone can help me with the origins of the above, I’d be really grateful. I heard it somewhere and it’s been bugging me for yonks as to where…)
215 - interview between Alan Partridge and Peter Baxendale-Thomas (of the Norfolk Farmers Union) on Radio Norwich, here’s where Ian Gibson gets his lines from:
Alan: I’ll tell you what. You farmers, you don’t like outsiders, do you? You like to stick to your own.
Peter: What do you mean by that?
Alan: I’ve seen the big-eared boys on farms.
Peter: Oh, for goodness’ sake.
Alan: If you see a lovely field with a family having a picnic, and there’s a nice pond in it, you fill in the pond with concrete, you plough the family into the field, you blow up the tree, and use the leaves to make a dress for your wife who’s also your brother.
Peter: Look, have I got anything else to say here or shall I go?
Alan: Well, listen, I’ll tell you what the point is. You have big sheds, but nobody’s allowed in, and inside these big sheds are twenty-foot high chickens. Because of all the chemicals you put in them.
Alan: And these chickens are scared. They don’t know why they’re so big. They go “oh why am I so massive?” And they’re looking down on all the other little chickens, and they think they’re in an aeroplane because all the other chickens are so small… do you deny that? No. His silence, I think, speaks volumes.
tim,
I have to confess, despite my post at 203 and despite the fact that I’m a Conservative/Cameron supporter, that I actually really do enjoy your posts and your humour.
217 - Paul Calf?
187
“Every Briton of European descent is, roughly speaking, a sixth cousin to all others, and their joint predecessor was alive when Darwin was a young man.
To get to the universal ancestors (when everyone was the forefather of everybody alive today, or of nobody) we need go back only 5,000 years. Had you entered any village on Earth, the first person you met would, if he or she had heirs, trace their descent straight to you and your partner.”
Prof. Steve Jones
217. Sounds like a Mellors quote - the D. H. Lawrence one, and most likely in a TV adaptation ‘improvement’.
The poll and theTelegraphs explanation of it are total codswallop!
1. Yougov don’t weight on certainty to vote. For instance last months Yougov would have had the tory’s on 45 points if this was included.
2. Apart from the crap about all leaders being less popular than their party’s,theTelegraph also stated that the tory’s struggle to keep above 40.
ICM are a far more accurate and reliable pollster, right back to. 1997 and further.
Polls in the coming days and weeks WILL NOT show the tory’s back below 40!
Kellner is a Labour brown nose t4sser !
206 Andrew - I’m sure you’re right as regards Cameron’s speech to the faithful and possibly the Tories’ ratings will improve a little. I also accept that winning a General Election is a long game and that it’s possible to peak too early.
I just find it surprising and disappointing that after a year of unremitting disasters for Brown & Co, the Tories are faring significantly less well compared with the corresponding YouGov poll of a year ago, post #7 above refers, down no less than 5% in fact - not good, not good at all.
220 Possibly, but….I don’t think so.
224 I think the absence of Cameron has a big impact on these numbers - I can’t really recall when I last saw or heard him apart from activist stuff pumped out by CCHQ.
I fully expect the Labour conference to narrow the Tories lead to say 10 points and then for the reserve [plus some] to happen the following week.
I certainly won’t put any store in polling figures until it settles back down.
tim has his amusing moments and can be witty, funny and even charming at points.
Other times….not so much. Maybe he’s in a good mood today.
222 That’s a good candidate, b. Though I had a feeling it was more contemporary.
But just in case, I shall spend the weekend reading Lady Chatterley - for research, you understand…
208. Tim, don’t knock posh girls, especially those not blessed with great looks. My understanding is that they tend to be keen and lacking in hangups.
229 - Lacking in hangups doesn’t outweigh the hacking and legups.
171 Tim, I don’t think middle class anger is confined to those who ‘can’t keep up with the Abramoviches’. Nor do I think it is London-focused.
There is widespread dislike of the super-rich who are seen as having prospered unfairly under Labour and left the rest of us in a financial crisis.
I also think it perfectly possible to link that middle class discontent with the fears of others who worry about losing their jobs, think benefits often go to those who don’t deserve them and regard Brown as generally incompetent. All winning parties are coalitions and Cameron has a good basis for a winning coalition.
Having said that the IHT pledge was made in 2007. A great deal has happened since then and we’ve already seen some back-pedalling by Clarke. I also think it is likely to be replaced by a vaguer aspiration.
I’m off to feed my chickens, now. Something you probably send one of the hands to do.
223 Wayne, I think you are right in that the voters have largely made up their minds where they stand as between Cameron and Brown. Battle lines are drawn - and certainty to vote is the only real issue. If Labour can enthuse (or more likely, terrify) voters, then they will get nearer to the Tories. But I think it will have to be at the expense of the LibDems. Scope for many Tory –> Labour switchers before the GE look remote. (Except in Broxstowe, of course
)
Tim Bot on about IHT AGAIN, not sure a day goes by without it. At least he isn’t doing his Bernard Manning impression again this morning!
228. Watch the film/TV versions too, easy to envision Sean Bean dialog on those lines.
Alternatively - maybe it’s from the unexpurgated David Beckham dairies….
Iain Watson BBC News talking about GB with the backdrop of the West Pier @ Brighton ~ the brunt out one. Are they trying to say someting for a change.
234. Oops! Diaries not dairies, otherwise he’d be milking it for all it was worth.
230 tim - not bad and posted within two minutes is quite impressive - have you and stjohn ever been seen together in the same room?
177. Thanks. I’ve just backed Cameron for another £100 at a mix of 1.53 and 1.52 (yours?). It’s not the 3/1 I got just post-EuroElection but I still think it’s excellent value.
If Brown were going to go, he’d have gone already. There’s minimal incentive for anyone else to take over now as compared with after the election even if Brown could be pushed and there’s probably not time to fit in another leadership election. And that’s before considering the effect of imposing a second unelected leader on the electorate (at least with Brown, we knew in 2005 that Blair would stand down during the parliament and Brown was likely to take over).
Keep talking amongst yourselves,chaps !Whilst you lot have been wittering away about posh totty I have earnt a tenner plus a very small freebie……and all from Political Betting. He he.
As one of the many right-leaning Sarf’ Lun’dun’ah’s on this site I am bemused at Farmer Tupac’s rants. Fair enough most of us are likely to have been educated at state-run comprehensives, so we may not be able to allude his finer points.
Maybe his inter-web lover URW could assist? Considering his [URW] betting acumen there must be something I am missing….
So Tupac, do you have any political views?
—————————————————————–
P.S. Martin Day: Get well soon. Cut the racism though. [Mild bigotry is a human failing we all have.]
P.P.S. Mike’s place; Mike’s rules. Let’s not suggest who should be banned or otherwise, but trust OGH (and team’s) judgement. [Hat-tip:
RedRod Crosby!]Rant over: Hands ranting baton back to Wayne.
So was it a good LibDem conference? No. Look at the vote shares for Labour (26%) and LibDem (20%). The LibDems are as near as they’ve been in ages to overtaking Labour as the second party: the predominant force on the Left of British politics. So what do they do? Spend their week in the spotlight slagging off the Tories.
235 The director, cameraman or reporter must read the Independent - see the cartoon
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/
206. Pfp
with the Tories now falling wretchedly back into the thirties
I think you are ignoring the context of the respective conference polls.
Firstly, in September 2008 the Conservatives were still in their post London Mayoralty and Crewe victory bounce. The 2009 post election bounce was more subdued partly because the Euros and Counties are not quite the same high value jewels as London or in fact the first constituency bye-election victory in decades was.
Add to that Lehmans, the credit crunch (suppressing any economy related optimism for the agendas of any party) and more importantly the expenses scandal (proportionately damaging both Labour and the Conservatives more than any other party) and it is unsurprising that the poll results are a little less buoyant than they were last year.
However there is one other consideration as well. The first Yougov poll after the Libdem conference 2008 (19th-23rd September) last year was for the Sun on the 24th September, the figures for that were:
Con 41
Lab 31
LD 16
Taking these considerations into account I don’t find these figures particularly surprising or off-putting. Certainly I wouldn’t put any credence in any particular poll until the middle/end of October and certainly I am not speculating quite yet that any parties fortunes have changed.
240 - I have views on most things.
Here’s my genetics immigration and race policy.
(words are spoken by an actor)
Bulworth:
Rich people’ve stayed on top, dividing white people from colored people. But white people’ve got more in Common with colored people than rich people. We’re just gonna have to eliminate ‘em.
Connie:
Eliminate?
Bulworth:
Eliminate.
Connie:
Who?
Rich people?
Bulworth:
White people.
Bulworth:
Black People, too.
Brown people,
Yellow people.
Get rid of ‘em all.
Connie:
Get rid of them all?
Bulworth:
We need a voluntary, free Spirited,
compatible, open ended program of
procreative racial deconstruction.
Connie:
Uh…
Bulworth:
Everybody just got to keep f#cking everybody
till we’re all the same color.
Bulworth: (he leans forward and picks up the coffee) It’s gonna take a while but…
(A light CRASHES to the ground near Jay. He puts down the cup and looks around)
Connie: (startled)
Thank you, Senator Bulworth.
We’ll return with former Governor Lamar Alexander after this message.
just an off-topic thought which crossed my mind. The last thread was about the electoral prospects for an area with 32 local authorities and a population approaching (or maybe by now even over) 8 million. I don’t think more than a couple of dozen posts out of 390 refered to the topic. Compare this to the amount of discussion, even on threads totally unrelated to it, which concerns electoral prospects in an area further to the north with a total population of about 5 million.
235 LOL ~ Great Cartoon
There are at least four ways that the LibDem conference was a failure.
Firstly they looked disorganised. The ‘savage’ to ‘serious’ cuts story was just a taster. When they got into the conference hall the attacks on the leadership from the platform were reflected in the fighting behind the scenes between the policy making committee and the leadership. This spilled out into letters in the press. A gift to their opponents in time. A party divided.
Secondly their economics guru was holed beneath the Plimsoll line and his easy ride in the media, which did so much to raise the LibDem profile, has come to an end. Once press cynicism starts it is difficult to stop and the LibDems hardly started from a strong base.
Thirdly the income tax give-aways will cost far more than the ‘mansion tax’ will take in. So additional ‘savage cuts’ will be needed to fund it. This self made bear trap is a sleeper, and the LibDems will be taken apart on this if they try to push it hard. And the upshot will be that their one good performer, Cable, will have even less traction than before.
Fourthly, are they going to support the abolition of tuition fees or not? This is a litmus test question. And I am left confused, aren’t you? They did not provide a coherent selling point for the election which will last.
I can quite believe that some YouGov respondents were effected by the conference, but not all who respond to the political question are anoraks by any means and the tone on tax may have been enticing or simply being reminded of the existence of the LibDems may have encouraged a tick in their box.
But once all the conferences are over and some response has been made by other parties, and until there is a proper campaign when foolish policy positions such as they have made are consistently and determinedly attacked, the real support for the LibDems will be rather difficult to ascertain.
238. David H.
Have you seen this article on Coffee House. I am as sceptical as you about the chances of Brown going but reading this:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5365651/johnsons-sense-of-timing.thtml
I do wonder whether Johnson is setting himself up as an interim leader with someone else taking over in the event of electoral defeat?
Tim = PB new hero.
IHT = Great news for IFA’s.
IHT = Great for Labour, the dead can’t vote against them.
Vote Labour and keep my business afloat - that toerag Osborne would lose me a lot of business if he raised it to £1m pp.
Where do I sign up to Tim’s petition to keep IHT at just £325k pp or indeed why not make it 50% after the first £1000?
Tim for PM.
Thanks Tupac,
I did ask for your thoughts, but obviously you need to dredge the words of someone else to articulate them. Quoting someone’s views to back-up your points is fine, but where is your analysis to elucidate why you hold those beliefs*.
Politics is complex which is why I can often agree with NPMP (and yet the guy gets my goat). On race we appear to differ little, but your postings always appear to be focused through a particular part of the light-spectrum which clouds your vision.
Anyhow Gary, back to normal service, hey…!
* That’s an instant ban at some of the military web-sites I use.
For info, in case anyone is interested in terms of anticipating movements in public attitudes, round 117 (or whatever it is) of the expenses saga will be in late November. Sir Thomas Legg is reviewing all MPs’ claims for consistency with the rules (this is what the stuff about MPs claiming for the capital of mortgages etc. relates to) and will write to everyone at the end of October, raising any queries. MPs will have three weeks to respond, after which he’ll publish his findings.
I’ve rather lost track of what else is going on, but there’s another round of publication of expenses coming up (presumably for 2008-9), this time with fewer redactions, and I think the Inland Revenue is still beavering away at the implications of some claims.
By the way, I think that Bercow’s speech earlier this week has quite a bit more of interest than the point about Mandelson answering PQs, which is all that got reported. Full text here:
http://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blogs/recent_events/archive/2009/09/25/parliamentary-reform-the-route-from-here-to-there.aspx
Great Independent cartoon but shouldn’t the ‘derelict pier’ be dressed in false tartan?
And did anyone bother to look at the Downfall video about Edinburgh trams I posted yesterday. My Scottish brethren who sent it to me laughed so much they couldn’t get the email sent for a while.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yOqU4-zE5w
248 read the whole interview - absolutely vicious hatchet job. for instance: His looks suggest the faded glamour of an ageing light entertainer – there’s more than a hint of the end of the pier in his pink cheeks, sharp suits and watery eyes
and
For an interview with any politician, this would be an oddly unfocused train of thought. For a home secretary, it’s highly unusual. And for a man widely tipped to be the next leader of the Labour party, it’s so surprising that I try again to steer him back to a point.
and
Another problem is Johnson’s habit of interrupting one sentence with another, making it very hard to follow his thread.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/26/alan-johnson-labour-leadership-interview
248. It’s sensible phrasing from Johnson and I think should be interpreted as “if the leadership were offered on a plate and my party needed me then I’d do my duty”.
I can only see that happening if both Brown and Harman were ruled out for whatever reason. I simply can’t see Harman - having defeated Johnson - giving him (and note the masculine there) a clear run.
If Johnson were really serious, he wouldn’t keep playing up his negatives but would simply deny that there was a vacancy and refuse to speculate (allowing others to do so).
252 - Why is it that the British are so negative about trams and light rail? Nearly everyone else sees them as an environmentally friendly answer to congestion and pollution.
Poling Question
How do the YouGov, ComRes et al decide who they ring?
Do they pick a phone book and stick in a pin?
Is that by region/County/Seat?
Do they use a random number generator?
Patently if they pick 200 numbers in the Home Counties they get one set of results.
If they pick 200 inner-city seats they get another result.
If they 200 in Cornwall they get something else?
Do anyone know?
Personal interest only.
I didn’t find the Edinburgh tram video funny at all.
Why should Gordon Brown be getting so cross?
I suppose I just didn’t understand it.
Re 243 Scrap the comments on the Libdem conference dates (actually 13th-18th) and post conference poll. It seems I have misinterpreted the dates from this Guardian page:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/15/libdemconference.liberaldemocrats2
c. Is right up above @ 7
doh!
That doesn’t change my views more generally as posted though…..
Curious have you had a sense of humour bypass?
Try this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebaDe3eiQIA&NR=1
By the way, these are from my SNP friends in Scotland.
254. David H. Fair comment.
253 I read the interview earlier and felt myself saying OUCH when I read some of her lines - the last one was a killer.
If Alan really is their Great White Hope, then Labour post GE are going to have problems. Can’t see him being leader before then, and Hattie will battle hard for it.
Interesting salvo from Prescott who is clearly feeling she’s pedalling her own agenda a little too hard and this bit really struck me:
“I worry somehow that we’ve been in a 15-round fight. We’re just losing the other rounds when we shouldn’t and it’s almost getting to the stage where we have to win with a knock-out. There’s got to be leadership and there’s got to be a message. If we don’t get that, then we won’t get the knock-out punch in the last round. And we are in the last round.”
A lack of experience within Labour’s team of special advisers was “an increasing problem”, he said, but MPs needed to do more. “We’ve got a whole bank of MPs, but everybody seems despondent. There’s too much defeatist thinking. There’s no central direction to campaigning.
“Look at the European elections. We decided we were going to lose it, so we did nothing. My main worry is, are we about to do the same thing again?”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stop-going-on-about-womens-rights-prescott-tells-harman-1793485.html
252. “£500 million quid to replace the number 22 bus” priceless!
248 jsfl - but nothing unfortunate is going to happen to Brown. On the contrary, the only remote chance of his leaving office before the next GE is in the fortunate event from his perspective of him being appointed to head up the putative G20 bureaucrat.
Coffee House seems to be way behind the curve on this one. We now know for instance, straight from the horse’s mouth, that Brown is “very fit” and that he “runs a lot”
263
could it be typos? Fat/has the runs a lot?
The UKpolling Report on the Populus Conference poll is very interesting:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
263 I found Gordon’s claim to ‘run a lot’ to be totally implausible.
He doesn’t even vote on foot - supposedly works 18hrs a day and looks like a overcooked dumpling.
When exactly does he find time to do this previously unheard of activity? Perhaps there is a treadmill in the No 10 WC
264 SNAP
But he is very athletic and runs a lot, we have the proof:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/01/27/article-0-03308A89000005DC-78_224×340.jpg
The Opposition parties should be taking this Labour Government to task over its mismanagement of the economy.
Quantitive Easing does not appear to be working,and the latest wheeze is a weaker currency……Unbelievable.
And now Bloomberg.com is picking up on this
Pound Slides on Speculation BOE Favors Declines to Buoy Economy
Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) — The pound fell to its lowest level in almost six months against the euro on speculation the Bank of England favors a weaker currency to help revive the economy.
The British currency also dropped below $1.60 for the first time since July 8 after the Newcastle Journal cited Bank of England Governor Mervyn King as saying the pound’s weakness was “helpful.” Policy makers said there may be “false dawns” in the recovery, according to the minutes of their most recent meeting released this week.
There’s “growing concern over the financial position of the U.K.,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “Added to the negative pound sentiment this week were the comments from King that the bank favors the weaker pound as a means to rebalance the economy.”
The pound dropped 1.5 percent to trade at 91.89 pence per euro as of 5:05 p.m. in London yesterday, and weakened to 92.19 earlier, the first time since April 1 that it depreciated to more than 92 pence. It fell 1.8 percent to $1.5973, after reaching $1.5918, its lowest level since June 8.
The Bank of England’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee was unanimous in leaving the its asset-purchase program at 175 billion pounds ($279 billion) at its Sept. 10 meeting, the minutes showed on Sept. 23. King had pushed at the August meeting for an increase to 200 billion pounds but was outvoted.
The central bank began the so-called quantitative-easing policy in March in an effort to lower borrowing costs as the U.K. grappled with its worst recession since World War II.
29 - Patrick, Notice your leaning back to Labour, just what do they have to do to lose your vote?
265. I liked this bit
‘Leader image. These figures were uniformly hideous for Gordon Brown.
To be honest, reading through them I started to feel sorry for the man – it’s getting to the point where asking questions about how the public sees Gordon Brown feels like kicking an ailing puppy.
He had a negative net rating on every single measure. His highest rating was actually being “likeable” where his negative score was only minus 16. After that was substantial, where his score was minus 21.’
41 - Tim, the accurate thing to say would be that people are desperate to get rid of Labour.
Your not big on accuracy though are you
263. Pfp - It wouldn’t surprise me (unfortunately I haven’t got the time to study the detail of stories as I had a while back). Although having said that can we trust anything coming out of 10DS. After all has Gordon signed up for the 2010 London Marathon for example?
;o)
54 - Isnt that how it worked in communist Eastern Europe?
Opposition mp’s getting arrested by police is so last year, lets medicate them
253. Constan. That’s a pretty dreadful interview by Johnson. It’s further evidence that he was right when he said he is not up to the job of being Prime Minister.
He might make a reasonable Labour leader after a General Election defeat as they begin the process of regrouping. But I think he would be struggle to make the case for Labour as PM in a GE campaign.
O/T But what is the largest tactical squeeze ever put on a 3rd party vote in a seat at a General Election? I think Ashdown in 83 in Yeovil reduced Labour from something like 25% to 8%.
97 - raising the basic allowance to £10K is funded by a number of policies to reduce various tax reliefs on higher incomes, including higher rate relief on pension contributions (which OGH dislikes).
It is the one bit of their tax and spend package that does clearly stack up.
275 I think the only current labour politician who could tilt the balance back in labour’s favour in time for the next GE (GB might still do it,with a little help from Sarah)is Mandelsson.
I like Johnson but he is lightweight IMO.
Harman is feisty but I think it would be a case of love her or hate her and the other front runners,ie the Millibands, do not yet have the gravitas or profile needed to make a quick impression on the public.
Just seen this on the BBC website - BBC Parliament intending to show the 1959 General Election Results broadcast on Friday 9 October.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/proginfo/tv/2009/wk40/fri.shtml#fri_parliament
142.”I agree. The IHT cut is the weakest link in Tory policy at the moment. It was a masterstroke at the time, but looks dated now.”
wibbler, I disagree. Its all about aspiration, and that IHT policy hits the group its aimed at. Not the rich, but all those retiring people who have worked and saved all their lives and want to leave something of a legacy for their children, and more importantly these days, their grandchildren.
Already you are seeing the bank of retiring mum and dad coming to the rescue more and more with their families, first with home buying as prices rocketed, then with tuition fees, and now with the economy.
That is the group that it was targeted at, and they will look favourable on it.
Tim and fellow travellers who are desperate to turn the agenda around to the more favourable Labour agenda of portraying the Tories as the party of the rich need this to resonate. The Libdems are trying something similar, will it work?
I don’t think so.
278 VB Whose your money on to be FM?
275 stjohn - I don’t think the postie has a chance of becoming labour leader after the GE, when everyone and their dog will be going for the job. No, his big hope was being seen as “Mr Nice Guy” to take over from Brown before the GE, but that’s not now going to happen.
Who on here thinks that an October election is still possible?
I do because i really do not think the govt are able to present a plausible pre budget report.
If they show the true stste of the economy they will be in the mire and if they try and dress it up the financial markets will pulverise the gilt and foreign exchange market.
By going before then they also do not have to elaborate on cuts and can blame the Tories for all that comes after.
Any thoughts?
valleyboy@278: “Harman is feisty but I think it would be a case of love her or hate her…”
Isn’t that what Labour need right now? Cameron shouldn’t have a problem turning his voters out, whereas Labour are looking like they’re going to have a huge problem turning theirs out. If the haters are going to vote for Cameron anyway, wouldn’t Labour be better off if they had some lovers? (Though obviously it depends on the proportions…)
283. timmo. Yes. Get your money on. Goods odds available on a 2009 election, especially if combined with a Tory victory on Betfair.
Good news chaps, according to The Times, Gord is still being advised by the American political consultant Bob Shrum. A man with the spectacular record in Presidential elections of Played 8, Won 0, Lost 8.
In. The. Bag.
Nice to see the tired old Norfolk stereotypes trotted out earlier in the thread, mucho hilarious.
Normal for Norfolk, f*cking awesome for elsewhere. Bout time we were rid of the millstone of the rest of England - the mouthy southerners, the grim northerners and the inbetweeenies from the Midlands.
Then we shall laugh at you all from our castle on the Waveney.
In the meantime, I await the story about Cameron with interest - the journalist would be waiting for Labour to be sub 10? Its already too late for a story about him being a bit of an arse a few years ago to make the slightest difference.
Especially when he is up against ‘cash for cleaning’ Brown
P.S. Norfolk rules, go suck on our Lavender the rest of you
283. If the choice is lose now or lose later, why not lose later?
269.
The depreciation of the £ Sterling is to be expected as the more money that is printed then the more the true value of the currency is reduced.
Also the more the UK borrows as advocated by AD and St Vince, then the more it has to pay as interest on that borrowing as a proportion of its income. This can lead eventually to a reduction in the UK credit rating, then an increase in interest rates to attract borrowing which then increases the total debt.
King would be right to say that a cheaper pound benefits our exporters, - that is as long as we have manufacturing that can still export - there is still a daily flight of manufacturing to Eastern Europe as it has a lower cost base and less regulation. At present a cheaper pound looks like only benefiting the tourist industry.
Coupled with high taxes, a weak pound can discourage multinational companies from establishinh new businesses in the UK even though the cost of their intitial investment is reduced.
284
That is going to be the most inteesting thing about the GE. We can have poll after poll after poll, but they are only onstensibly accurate if people actually vote.
251- Think I’ll wait until it’s on BBC Parliament (10pm tonight)
284. Edmund. I agree. Harman is despised by many Tory bloggers here. But maybe that’s a good thing in electoral terms for a potential Labour leader? I don’t hear Labour supporters criticising her in anything like the same terms.
And I thought she got a reasonably positive hearing from a lot of the women in the QT audience the other night. I thinks she is the only “game changer” now available to Labour, prior to the General Election.
280. ChristinaD - the IHT debate is a Labour diversion, a red herring. According to official figures (August 09) the IHT take was 2.25 billion (down by 500 million from the previous year).
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/tax_receipts/table1-2.pdf
Given as Browns tax receipt projections from 2007 the Government is more than £70 billion short per annum.
Furthermore, given that Darling has already upped the thresholds (when taking into account the non-dom tax receipts as well) with the reduction in receipts overall the amount of tax receipts lost would seem minimal when considering the big picture.
Basically its the left just indulging in their spite for anyone who has at one time or another been successful who isn’t one of their own……..
213 - As a Market researcher I would say it would be near impossible to game a phone poll as most polls are conducted by ringing respondents at random (RDD) (so the only way it could be fixed is by a research company)
As for online panels, yes, they can be gamed. Some panels try to prevent this by being “closed” i.e. they invite people only and don’t let anyone sign up. A panel like YouGov is “open” and so anyone can sign up, although YouGov presumably do various checks like name and address and they would use profiling surveys to try and check up further. Sometimes panels use trick questions to try and catch people out.
However, these measures are not fullproof and I have personally come across cases of people with multiple accounts in 3rd world countries (as it can be quite a lucrative business there).
Where the industry is fighting back is by using digital fingerprinting technology. In particular a company called Relevant ID has a product that checks various different data points on the respondent’s computer and then blocks someone from entering a survey twice on the same computer.
Most panels publish a list of their answers to the ESOMAR 26 questions, which includes their anti-fraud measures but I can’t see this on the YouGov website. Perhaps someone should ask them.
278 Hugh is my personal favourite, I have a feeling that Carwyn may just miss out but if I do put a few pounds down it will be Edwina.Doing a decent job at health and liked by trade unions.Wish she was more visible though.Visibility is what Wales labour need at present, as I think Rhodri has had a longer than normal break this year(well it seems like) in his caravan in Mwnt.
292. You may have a point. I can’t stand her, but she’s unrepentant, tough, and has a guiding ideology. She’d lose, but Labour would look like a proper social democratic party whilst they went down, as opposed to a rabble.
284/292 I would have no problem with Harman as labour leader.Just can’t see it happening, even after the GE, let alone before.
The Lib Dems had a bad conference. End of. They always get a boost howvever bad things look.
They got an uplift despite some bad press last time. They got an uplift when Nasty Chris was shouting Calamity Clegg. Did anyone seriously not expect them not to get one?
Their problem is that they left the media/other parties with a lot of threads on to pull later. And they haven’t really started to do so yet. Biggest casuality = Vince. He is not ruined, but he is damaged and it is in the balance as to whether the media will start to snipe or carry on polishing what is in my view, a t*rd. Could go either way.
Of course, the fight between Labour and Tory may be too absorbing for anyone to bother.
But on any level, they have a bad conference. They achieved only what was inevitable.
The question is whether it matters.
283, 285 timmo, stjohn - Absolutely no chance now of an October GE, backing one to take place December is to waste your money, so the only remote chance is November, for which those nice people at Chandlers and Ladbrokes will offer you 33/1. In short, forget it!
295. Harman’s achilles heel is the economy, the few times she has attempted to address such things at PMQ’s she has seemed way out of her depth IMO.
Whilst as leader she might well have considerable room to improve, I doubt she has the background to successfully manouevre and master such things particularly in the early days of such a leadership when they would be required at the fore.
Once an impression of economic incompetence has been set it is very hard to shift and it would provide a powerful armoury for those that oppose her and I suspect limit her appeal pretty much only to hard core left-wing ideologues.
288 Q. If the choice is lose now or lose later, why not lose later?
A. Because Labour may lose bigger later, perhaps 30-50 seats bigger, suffering such a defeat as may prevent them from returning to power for a further 4-5 years, that’s why.
That said, Brown will postpone holding the GE until May 2010, for sure.
If i was cameron id do the following two things: Postspone the IHT rise until the end of the first parliament, instead using the savings to either reintroduce the 10p tax rate or, if he is feelling really bold, implement the IDS benefits shakeup in full, stating that the IHT will be postponed in favour of the initial startup cost of the benefits shakeup. From what i remember, it’ll see the lowest 4.9m people benfit to the tune of around £700-£1000 py, so unlike cables unaffordable £10000 tax rate, this is fully affordable, and clearly shows the tories are putting the poorest first, but still fundermentally believe in an aspiration driven society. No need to worry about rich votes going lib dem, cables mansion tax means that wont be happening!!!
Secondly i’d steal brown’s cancer pledge thunder, by promising to introduce such a pledge not in 2015, but in 2010. Why, cameron should ask, should 50,000 extra people die whilst we wait for this government to dither and delay?? By promising to ring fence NHS spending, we are able to announce the immediate introduction of this pledge.
288 Plenty of scope to lose more badly if you lose later.
More time for Loser / Labour to become synonymous.
More opportunity for a bond issue to fail. For the dreaded IMF to become involved. For unemployment to reach 3 million. For interest rates to start to rise. For inflation to turn sharply upwards. For a W recession to kick in by next spring. For more massive bank write-offs - and for the FTSE to come back sharply as a result. For RBS to need another massive injection of cash. For a big casualty event in Afghanistan. For an event that causes an oil-price shock. For the Tories to become less toxic. For the LibDems to really get campaigning in Labour seats.
Time to have to start making cuts.
OR - time for voters to come to see Gordon Brown as Santa Claus, bringing them everything they had always wanted.
Snap election - always unlikely. But no-one in Labour is talking the date of the election. No-one. Not even to rule out this year, which should be a no-brainer now. But after autumn 2007, ANY talk of election dates is verboten. The pact with the Cabinet might have been brokered - we won’t pull you down, force you out, humiliate you. But you go. And you go now. Try and renege - and we walk en masse.
Only the people round the Cabinet would need to be privy to that pact.
81. I see Michael Foot is 96. John Loony links to an actuarial calculation that gives him a 23% chance of reaching 100.
Anyone know how Michael Foot is faring? Assuming that he’s reasonable for 96, I would be interested in backing him at 100/30 to reach a TON, if a regular PBer or shadsy would care to lay the odds?
O/T Where’s Morris the Dancer today with his usual highly-informative preview of this weekend’s F1 Grand Prix from Singapore?
302 The election will be in May.I don’t recognise the scenarios you portray.Things could just as well take a turn for the better, unemployment apart.
303. stjohn.
According to the FOAK “he has stated that he would not ‘conk out’ until he had seen his team play in the premiership”.
Given that his team, Plymouth Argyle, is currently bottom of the Championship…
301 - Wise politics.
I suspect those Tories on here who think that Cameron will go into an election with a pledge to stuff his friends pockets while the rest pay more are going to be going into reverse pretty soon.
And Christina will be writing about what a shrewd operator Osborne is for ignoring her.
299 I rate Hattie as an operator and as a media presence, she *looked* like a leader on QT.
However, she’s Labour’s Thatcher - a bit too strident for those who don’t feel the same about her personhole cover rhetoric/agenda.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she won a post GE leadership election, and TBH I hope she does as she’s been a stalwart who’s gone out to bat when the match is lost.
I think she’d be electoral poison for Labour in the longer term, but she’d hold the party together in a way that I don’t think the other contenders could.
DM is a busted flush, EdM has potential but not yet, AJ - nope, Cruddas may lose his seat, Benn - nope, Darling - will probably lose his seat, Balls has a reasonable chance but I don’t know how he’s rated by the PLP, Cooper - nope.
Purnell is the leadership contender for the contest after next.
302 Plus, if Gordon WAS about to bow out on a snap election, it might just explain why Gordon was so keen for one last face-to-face.
When they did meet, maybe he even told Obama, out of courtesy.
Then maybe someone in the White Housed told the Tories “looking forward to meeting Prime Minister David soon. Can he find a slot in his diary for Washington in early November?”
Then maybe that’s why the Tories told their printers to be ready for the GE on October 22nd…
300/302. True enough but the benefits of another parliamentary session and the possibility that things might turn up (it might be a V- rather than a W- recession) will both play on the minds of born optimists, as most politicians are.
Ref the chance of a pact. How likely do you think it is that 20 politicians could keep that secret amongst themselves? There would inevitably be jockeying for the post-Brown positions (including most obviously the top job). Everyone would see the game of musical chairs even if there was sound-proof glass between the players and observers.
“Then maybe that’s why the Tories told their printers to be ready for the GE on October 22nd…”
Please no, I’m going to be in the US then!
256 - Most polls are done by random digit dialling. So the computer creates a list of random numbers (which are then weeded to exclude TPS subscribers). A less sophisticated way would be to have a set of phone books and phone a few numbers from each at random.
310 If there’s a pact - I imagine only three people will know about it - Gordon, Sarah and Mandy.
Mods - why did my other post on panel fraud disappear?
303 Wiki on Michael Mackintosh Foot:
He has been a passionate supporter of Plymouth Argyle Football Club since childhood and served for several years as a director of the club. For his 90th birthday present the club registered him as a player and gave him shirt number 90. This made him the oldest registered player in the history of football. He has stated that he would not ‘conk out’ until he had seen his team play in the premiership.
Looks like a pretty safe bet of yours then stjohn. BTW, I don’t think bookies will ever make markets of this nature, I mean spouses, etc, may get to hear of them!
On the subject of an election sooner rather than later - what sort of campaign can Labour actually fund?
Sure UNITE has deep pockets that can help out, but otherwise aren’t they in a bit of a fix?
305 “Things could just as well take a turn for the better, unemployment apart.”
With Gordon - Labour’s equivalent of “Unlucky ALf”?
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&VideoID=4829565
314 Somebody nicked it.
315. Peter. It’s not a bet unless I can get someone to match it!
300, 302 Snap! MM - Strange how you and I seem to share the same political outlook, yet when it comes to football……. oh dear!
299. She would need a first-rate chancellor and allow him to get on with the job. It would be an opportunity to play the team game (cf Gordon) and express her confidence in her colleagues. If she can’t find a first-rate one, letting Darling continue wouldn’t be a bad move.
308. I agree that Harman would be the best of Labour’s options were there a vacancy now. Blair won in 2005 with 36% of the vote. I don’t think Harman could get it to that level but she could perhaps reach the low 30s which would be hung parliament territory. It doesn’t matter how firmly people mark their X’s, it’s the votes that count (though as an aside, having been to various counts, it’s amusing how determinedly some poeple do mark their X’s).
I think Purnell may well become the leader post-2010 providing he doesn’t get tagged as a quitter and not a team player. Labour values teamness, sometimes even above success. That said, parties in post-election defeat trauma can do all sorts of silly things.
Gareth of Reading - your very informative post has been retrieved and is at [295]. I’d refer readers to it.
I’m not sure why it dropped into the spam folder. Usually it’s a word / combination of letters within a word or something like running sentances together (which the system can see as web addresses). I can’t see anything obvious as to why it shouldn’t have posted straight up though.
Unfortunately, this has now knocked out the numbering a little.
318 That’s true Labour’s skint not like the Tories who have Ashcroft’s money.Lot of foot slogging for the likes of me it seems, while Tory candidate can swan around in helicopters
302 - Think you are onto something there: that’s sound politics and kills all sorts of potentially unpleasant electoral ‘birds’ with the one half-brick.
322 Indeed. I can only imagine your pain at the Brian Clough Trophy residing at the City Ground…
317 “For his 90th birthday present the club registered him as a player and gave him shirt number 90″
Fantastic trivia. If only they’d brought him on as a substitute in the 90th minute …
325. IIRC, Lord Sainsbury has donated more to Labour than Ashcroft has to the Tories. It’s not the Conservatives’ fault if Labour hasn’t spend their donations as efficiently.
Tsk. Tory candidates send their servants round in helicopters, silly boy.
328 That’s an interesting point.
What did Labour do with all that money? They were absolutely rolling it before cash4honours kicked off.
329 But are they from Tonga
331 That would require looking at passports. That law is for the little people….
325 You forgot to mention the army of Thai “pedicurists” on hand to administer to all aches and pains any Tory worker may suffer after delivering leaflets to each street…
Can feel the hurt, VB, can feel the hurt…
(and BTW, you’ve been misinformed; its not helicopters - Ashcroft has bought us each our own James Bond-style jet pack. They are SOOOO cool…forget Long Driveway Misery. Thing of the past…)
F1 qualifying:
Hmm. Was considering having a stab at this market, but pole certainly looks nigh on impossible to pick. Each practice session had a different fastest driver and it looks very difficult to guess who’ll win, worsened by the fact that Vettel may have the best pace but not get pole because he has to try for the win to have any chance of winning the Drivers’ Title.
I remain annoyed nobody took my 29/1 shot for Vettel to get pole. He’s 5 now
330 If they’ve buggered up the nations’ finances, buying toys and sweeties, is it really any surprise they do the same to their own Party’s?
301. ryans
Secondly i’d steal brown’s cancer pledge thunder, by promising to introduce such a pledge not in 2015, but in 2010. Why, cameron should ask, should 50,000 extra people die whilst we wait for this government to dither and delay?? By promising to ring fence NHS spending, we are able to announce the immediate introduction of this pledge.
It’s more like a whimper because it still requires a GP referral and as I have just found out with a close relative (who is now under palliative care because the hospital can do nothing other than pain relief), if the referral is not timely (or non-existent in my relatives case) it makes sod all difference whether the diagnosis takes 7 days or 7 months (it was 9 days in my relatives case) the outcome is still the same.
During the prior 2 years this relative had been seen periodically for the same complaints by a GP and had also been taken into hospital at least once and on no occasions was the eventual diagnosis considered.
Now I have no doubt that the additional funding and equipment will be a positive step (even if it is to be taken out of the NHS capital investment budget robbing Peter to pay Paul) but until they do something about our overpaid GPs and the consistency and quality of their performance (of course there are many good GPs) then much of the additional investment will be wasted.
In fact instead of taking the additional funding out of the capital investment budget perhaps they should take it out of the GP salary budget (or a portion of it anyway) instead!
If you haven’t watched it Mock The Week is hilarious this week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00n0093/Mock_the_Week_Series_7_Episode_12/
Oh for God’s sake
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216220/Mothers-banned-looking-children.html
323. David H
She would need a first-rate chancellor?
Who would you suggest?
Even so that would still her own performance and could she cope with being viewed in the same way as Clegg and Cable (if not more so) currently are?
333 etc funnily enough 2007 Assembly elections.We were meeting up in our ‘battered’ battle bus at a local airfield when lo and behold the Welsh Tory leader arrived in…..you’ve guessed it a helicopter.A bit of friendly banter ensued!
318 Valley Boy care to offer a as it stands prediction for Westminster seats in Wales at the election at all.
@325: Oooh. Brilliant. I’m looking forward to my helicopter, then. I’m not sure how it’ll help me shove these newsletters through the doors, but still. Helicopter. Awesome.
It is a little known fact that all parents are paedophiles.
Only Our Wonderful Government is aware of this.
Thank goodness we have Gordon Broan to look after us.
338 Same story here Wibbler:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/6231866/Adults-must-register-with-Ofsted-to-look-after-children.html
333(again) only other people I seem to bump into, foot slogging are Jehovah Witnesses! Perhsps they are Tories in disguise.
Re 339. David H missed the Darling suggestion and yes that continuity wouldn’t cause any harm. However that doesn’t do anything to hide her own lack of knowledge, it only highlights it…..
******* Betting Post ********
What are the prospects of someone who recently said the following, as rgards his becoming the next, permanent leader of the Labour party:
“I haven’t got the ambition, and I haven’t got the self-confidence, and I haven’t got that real aching desire to lead. Which really is an essential quality in a leader. So I don’t think I’ll ever be leader of the party. But I’m not willing to rule myself out for all eventualities in the future.”
A 1/4 or 25% chance if you’re feeling generous, but more realistically 1/8 or 12.5% chance at best. Quite apart from Alan Johnson’s self deprecating remarks, many of us don’t think he has a number of the other necessary attributes.
Despite this, Sporting offer a spread of 8-9.5 on their 0-25 point index. That is to say you can sell the Postie to win 8 times your stake or to lose 17 times your stake:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/?MeetingID=3413042&Split=1
In fixed odds terms, therefore you are backing him NOT to become the next, permanent leader of the Labour party at odds of 0.47/1 (8/17). That’s value in my book and I’m on!
345. Are you sure that is not indicative of something about yourself rather than the area?
Do you need ’saving’ per chance?
;o)
337 Nick Clegg = the kid you’re parents made you play with…
347 PfP. Chapeau ! You really are a very talented Betfinder.I eyeballed that one a few days ago….but because I’m a hoodie I’m not allowed in the shop.
Anyway, really well spotted ,sir, and anyone reading take note.
345 Do you have a favourite sarcastic response to Jehovah’s Witnesses knocking on your door?
One left my place PDQ when I stated ‘I was a Satanist’
349 “kid your parents”
Fngh..
On topic:
I think what’s needed is an average of all the post-conference bounces over many years. If the average was +4 then a bad conference woiuld be +3 or less and a good conference +5 or more.
Also all these polls now i think you want to look at it as a proportion of the non-others vote. If others are on 10% then half of the rest is 45%. If others are on 15% then half of the rest is 42.5%.
@@@
64 “The government plans to rush through measures allowing people with suspected mental health issues to be quickly detained because of fears over staff shortages in any forthcoming swine flu outbreak, it has been revealed.”
99 “A senior police officer told the inquest into the deaths of a family terrorised by a gang of youths that it was not the responsibility of police to tackle anti-social behaviour.”
Both the government and the criminals must be protected from the citizens.
@@@
125 - “Perhaps kicking rich greedy inexperienced Tories is a good strategy after all”
Labour would have to drop the “rich” and “greedy” part and LDs the “inexperienced” part. Might work as a tag team effort if they divided the strategy between them.
@@@
283 “By going before then they also do not have to elaborate on cuts and can blame the Tories for all that comes after.”
That was always my view until recently - that Mandy would dump McDoom at some point as a damage limitation exercise. On the other hand if the Euro-fanatics only care about Lisbon and keeping everything afloat until Lisbon is ratified then they might not care about the damage that does to the Labour party as an organization. It’d be like parasites killing their host and then moving on elsewhere.
341 Could be none.If its a serious question and you are not, as usual trying to trip me up, worst case scenario for Labour as at today;
Tory Plaid Liberals
C West Ynys Mon Montgomery
Vale Of Glam Arfon Cardiff C
Aberconway Dwyfor Brecon
Cardiff N ceredigion
Clwyd W C East
Preseli
Monmouth
Even without a Brown bounce I am desperately hoping NA can beat the foxhunter in Cam W and also expect both Plaid and Libs to do worse than above.
‘It’d be like parasites killing their host and then moving on elsewhere.’
Very well put. They are already all over another potential ‘host’, the Lib Dems, and post the GE will no doubt try to infect the Conservatives as well. We’ll have to see how strong the resistance of the latter proves to be.
352 Mr Jones
“On the other hand if the Euro-fanatics only care about Lisbon and keeping everything afloat until Lisbon is ratified then they might not care about the damage that does to the Labour party as an organization. It’d be like parasites killing their host and then moving on elsewhere.”
Post of the Day.
353 Trip you up? Just interested in your view. Nothing more than that.
You are I take it confident about the Gower, Swansea West and Llanelli?
raising the basic allowance to £10K is funded by a number of policies to reduce various tax reliefs on higher incomes, including higher rate relief on pension contributions (which OGH dislikes).
It is the one bit of their tax and spend package that does clearly stack up.
by Park Town Boy September 26th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Sadly it might stack up theoretically but that is not what Huhne and Cable seemed to say on TV interviews I saw. They but the two together as one paying for the other. And did Clegg not also link the giveaway with the mansion tax?
No other policies on tax and spend came across to me. Perhaps I am untypical. But I think not.
324 - Thanks David
347. Peter. That looks quite a good bet. In fact it’s about what you would expect when Johnson is top price 6/4 with Ladbrokes to be next Labour leader and only Evens with Stan James. SPIN’s spread equates to 13/8 on the BUY side.
I would rather be a SELLER than a BUYER. But my meagre SPIN credit is tied up on backing “The Villa”. I also agree that Johnson’s best chance is this side of the General Election, even though I don’t personally rate him.
Johnson is arguably value in Betfair’s next PM market at 6.5,(only to small money), compared to vc.bet’s 5/4 that Brown does NOT lead Labour at the next General Election.
Amazing that with the Election just around the corner now, Brown is rated only 4/7 to lead Labour and 5/4 he doesn’t.
330 “What did Labour do with all that money? They were absolutely rolling it before cash4honours kicked off.”
Probably all wasted on creating jobs at Labour HQ for their relatives.
353. valleyboy
“worst case scenario for Labour as at today;”
I think you mean BEST case solution for Labour as at today.
I’m not predicting this but the worst case solution for Labour includes the following Conservative gains:
Alyn
Bridgend
Cardiff S
Cardiff W
Clwyd S
Delyn
Gower
Newport W
Vale Clwyd
Wrexham
Also Labour losses to the LibDems of:
Newport E
Swansea W
And to PC of Llanelli
338 / 343 -Under Labour we are all guilty, we just might not have been caught yet.
Look at the point above re sectioning people, you can see where that well end up.