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Marf on the speech

September 29th, 2009

You can see more of Marf’s work at LondonSketchbook.com

Meanwhile we now have the YouGov post speech poll – the first figure is after the speech – the second is before it.

It should be noted that the sample was simply people who watched the speech – it was not demographically or politically weighted and as Anthony Wells at UKPollingReport observes “People who watched his speech are likely to be a lot more politically aware, a lot more well disposed towards Labour to start with (I suspect you’re more likely to watch the speech of a party you like), and hence probably more receptive to Brown’s message.”

So the following is just about meaningless as a test of representative opinion.

Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister?
Very well 21 10
Fairly well 29 28
TOTAL WELL 50 38
Fairly badly 18 21
Very badly 31 41
TOTAL BAD 50 62
Don’t know 0 0

Broadly speaking do you think Gordon Brown is…?
A capable leader 51 38
Not a capable leader 46 59
Don’t know 3 3

Broadly speaking do you think Gordon Brown is…?
In touch with the concerns of people like you 53 33
Out of touch with the concerns of people like you 45 64
Don’t know 2 3

Broadly speaking do you think Gordon Brown is…?
An asset to the Labour Party 52 37
A liability to the Labour Party 43 58
Don’t know 5 6

How would you rate Gordon Brown’s speech this afternoon?
Excellent 33
Good 30
EXCELLENT & GOOD 63
Fair 22
Poor 11
Bad 4
POOR & BAD 15
Don’t know 0

These are not numbers to use to try to forecast the general election. We’ve seen it in the post-debate poll in the US elections – first reactions rarely tell us anything.

It will be the same next week with Cameron speech. Wait for the mid-October voting intention number – everything else is fluff.

Mike Smithson