Is the pressure getting to Cameron?
October 4th, 2009
This was a screen shot I took of the Cameron interview with Andrew Marr and shows someone who was under some pressure. He didn’t seem to be his normal self.
The questioning was tough - but then he is hoping to be prime minister in a few months time.
I thought it was one of his less good performances.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
FPT
91
Marr actually took Grice’s article yesterday in the Independent to heart..
Andrew Grice: Labour identifies chinks in the Tories’ armour
Labour rediscovered the class war at its annual conference in Brighton this week……..
Gordon Brown told the conference that he was from “an ordinary family in an ordinary town” and that his parents could not easily have afforded to put their children through private schools. He didn’t mention David Cameron. But he didn’t need to.
The attacks on “Tory toffs” and greedy bankers cheered the Labour troops – and they certainly needed some cheering. Any army needs to know its enemy. Labour left Brighton at least determined to make a fight of it, rather than lie down and die…
The Tories leave themselves wide open to Labour’s charge of being “a party for millionaires” because they have retained a policy of raising the threshold for inheritance tax to £1million…
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-labour-identifies-chinks-in-the-tories-armour-1797007.html
Battle lines are drwn. LOTS more to come.
Worked so well in C&N, use it again.
It was one of his less impressive interviews.
But two things to remember
1) Marr was continually interuppting and focussed too much on Europe and didn’t leave enough time to ask the other questions properly, so the latter part of the interview was rushed
2) Was a damn sight better than Brown’s interview with Sian Williams and Adam Boulton.
lol, a screen shot?
I think its rather laughable to be debating this when we have the PM storming off set in the same week.
Cameron - a less than his best interview
Brown - has an explosive temper.
Not unduly.
Perhaps he was just dismayed at the quality of Marr’s question-and-hector style?
FPT
179. Wibbler. I disagree as such bigotry should not be actively promoted by employees of a taxpayer funded broadcasting organisation.
It is one thing to have members of legitimate political parties promote their bigotry in interviews etc. It is entirely another when a state organisation actively promotes such bigotry.
Marr reminded me of a drunk heckler at a comedy gig, but Cameron wasn’t up to the mark (today at least) of swiftly cutting him down to size, so instead the heckler got louder and interrupted more.
Crispin Blunt is being a little bit clever on Sky
‘Marr wouldn’t be asking brown about pills unless he had some information, it would be outrageous otherwise.’
lol
No.
Cameron was pissed because he could barely utter a sentence without being interrupted and he was asked more about Europe than the economy and more about his own wealth (which he handled reasonably but should’ve done better with) than Defence, which was entirely absent despite the rising Afghanistan death toll.
2 “The Tories leave themselves wide open to Labour’s charge of being “a party for millionaires” because they have retained a policy of raising the threshold for inheritance tax to £1million…”
Which would be fine - if the Tory proposal weren’t that ONLY millionaires will pay IHT under a Tory Govt.
Cameron ran this line today, but it needs to be hammered away at much more, because it is being wilfully misrepresented by the Innumerate Left.
Phew. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought it wasn’t his finest hour.
Clearly Marr set out to sandbag Cameron and trot out his nasty little leftie agenda and in that he succeeded partly by refusing Cameron any chance to express himself fully but also Cameron didn’t seem to handle it well. I agree with Mike - not one of Cameron’s best performances.
I think you could find bad screenshots of any leader during any interview.
7
Oracle
Cameron I suspect knows NOW is not the time to cut down to size. That would come over as arrogance.
Maybe when elected and the Licence Fee cut?
Remember Cameron is carefully ensuring he makes few press enemies..and not going out of his way to woo any - but the Sun.
Can we really expect any good interviews from Brown or Cameron given the decisions that need to be made after the election. In 96 it was easy for Blair because their was growth, money to fund pet projects and no tough decisions.
Both Cameron and Brown will have to make cuts. To explain them in details will worry people so the object of an interview is to get away with it without frightening away the horses. To me Cameron came out unscathed and that’s the best we can hope for currently.
2 Easterross has explained previously that, socially, Gordon Brown’s father would have been close to the top, in his home town, as a Church of Scotland Minister. So, while Brown doesn’t come from the same background as Cameron, his family would have been a lot better off than most people who vote Labour in Scotland.
I agree that attacks on rich people do resonate among some of Labour’s voters; but less than they used to, and in part because so many of Labour’s leadership are part of that rich elite.
As I’ve said before he doesn’t want to look too fresh-faced and jolly - it gives traction to “no time 4 a novice” attacks.
I tbink Labour need to set out their policy if we go to war with Borneo, and their economic policy if we are in recession in 2015. We need to know what they will do if Russia bans trade with India.
The whole concept of a party needing to set out what it will do in all circumstances is ridiculous.
15. “Can we really expect any good interviews from Brown or Cameron given the decisions that need to be made after the election. In 96 it was easy for Blair because their was growth, money to fund pet projects and no tough decisions.”
I do not expect any party to spell out how bad the situation is. It would be electoral poison, the public does not want to know that they will all be paying more for less and for many years to come.
13 Socrates. That’s true but right from the outset of the interview Cameron appeared slightly out of sorts, less composed and a little less well prepared. He normally ghosts through these spots without a worry but this time it was a somewhat off colour performance.
16 and in any case, he has certainly supped haertily at the public teat since getting into politics.
Brown is a greedy man.
17 - I am still very surprised that Labour / Mandy didn’t manage to come up with another line like that at the Conference. All the Tories bashing was scatter gun stuff and most of it frankly ridiculous.
The “no time for novice” line, although I disagree with it, worked to a certain extent. I was fully expecting one or two more of those kind of lines to be fired out last week.
On the Bullingdon question I thought the straight ‘of course I am embarassed by what I did’ answer was a good one. Perhaps that short of straight bat on those personal questions would be a good approach. I enjoyed too Cameron wanting to carry on talking about Europe after Marr tried to cut him short. It didn’t suggest someone particularly nervous over the issue.
The weakest bit for me was around the deficit reduction/unemployment/getting people back to work section. Perhaps he should have trailed some of the policy to be announced this week a bit more as not doing so made what would happen seem a bit of a vacuum, adding to the ‘we don’t know what you stand for’ viewpoint. We’ll see over the next few days whether that feeling can be reversed.
Marr was a pain in the a*se though. I can make up my own mind if someone is waffling and hasn’t any substance to the answers, but I can only do that if I can actually hear what they are saying.
Well if Mike, (with his customary understatement) thought it was one of Cameron’s, ‘less good performances’ it must have been a f**king disaster.
GE Prediction now Tories 37% Lab30% Libdems24%
I’m no body language expert but he also seemed to be looking down a lot… not really looking at the camera.
Maybe it was the lack of eye contact which made him seem a bit uncomfortable.
It’s really weird writing about Cameron having a bad interview. It just doesn’t happen much.
The “pressure” Cameron was under was his need to restrain his Achilles heel of tetchiness and arrogance; which has emerged in the past under hostile questioning.
I thought he succeeded in this. Compare and contrast to PM Gordon Brown!
I don’t have total confidence that Labour will know what to do with it but ammunition is building up for Labour to use. It’s clear Cameron has real weaknesses. He’s only been in politics for a few years and so far has had a ridiculously easy ride. The feebleness of Brown has let Cameron off the hook. The debates could prove very significant. It’s very hard to hide when a camera is in close up on you when you are being fake as Cameron has just found.
19. I think you misjudge the public mood. They want to be told how bad it is, but to be reassured that the person telling them how bad it is has a plan to make things better.
FPT
As for Marr - I wonder if he is one of those BBC bods avoiding tax
Seems the 50% tax is only for those who want to pay it.. if you work for the beeb that is ..
“MANY of the BBC’s highest-paid presenters have set up service companies that help them to pay less tax and will enable them to escape the full impact of Labour’s 50% levy on the rich.”
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article6860238.ece
by LTL October 4th, 2009 at 10:50 am
24 - Coldstone, you forget, this interview was the exception, rather than the norm for Cameron.
And Mike, how about a thread about is the pressure getting to Brown thread with a screen shot from the Boulton interview earlier on this week?
27 In fact, he’s had anything but an easy ride.
If I was faltering in the polls, with European splits about to engulf the party, and a drama-documentary about my privileged and overweening background getting top billing, I don’t think I’d look best pleased either.
27. Roger, as deluded as ever. There’s a real charm to your efforts, though.
Speaking of wealth..
“ONE of the wealthiest peers in the House of Lords has claimed £110,000 in expenses for living outside London despite owning a property with 25 luxury flats close to Westminster.
Lord Swraj Paul, the Indian-born multi-millionaire and Labour donor, has kept a family home inside the property for the past 43 years, but five years ago started claiming back his accommodation cost by saying his main home was outside the capital. ”
“According to The Sunday Times Rich List, Paul, who avoids tax on his overseas earnings by being a non-domicile in the UK, has a £500m fortune that he shares with his family.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6860211.ece
Of course a bung of 20k to Gordon’s leadership campaign will grease a lot of wheels.
by LTL October 4th, 2009 at 10:46 am
10. IHT = Great stuff
Stop the Tory IHT tax cuts - come on TIM!
Someone worth £30m would see their estate pay £11.6m under the Tories as opposed to £11.87m under Labour… see it’s irrelevant even assuming they don’t plan but of course they do so IHT=£0.
It’s those worth <£1m where the Tories provide all the relief by their proposals and would mean we IFA’s lose business. The Labour IHT tax cut for married couples only (not co-habiting men/women) was the slippery slope.
Stop yet more IHT Tax Cuts - vote Tim….
IHT = Lovely jubbly
32 top billing on More4?
It will be up there with re runs of QI on Dave
32 Most political leaders (well, all of them, really) would be delighted to be facing Cameron’s “problems.”
36 - I heard that it will also air on channel 4 in a few months as well.
The day before a debate anyone?
38 On a repeat loop all day on election day
FPT 203: “Harman is being done for having a car crash whilst on her mobile phone and leaving an accident without giving her details (see The Times)”
Not on news.bbc.co.uk she isn’t, in as selective a piece of reporting as you’re ever likely to see:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8289159.stm
29 Could have been a killer monent when Marr asked Cameron whether the 50% band would remain.
“We have no immediate ability to change the 50% rate. But there is plenty of evidence that people will either move away - just today, Tracey Emin has said she is leaving the UK because of the high tax rate - so she’ll now pays the UK a zero rate of tax. Or else people find creative ways to avoid paying the full rate. Which I understand widely happens at the BBC, with many well-known people creating service companies. Maybe even you, Andrew, utilise one to avoid paying the full rate of tax?”
30
Ah! but could the exception become the norm, perhaps Cameron is, (as we used to say) a 20 mile marathon runner, brilliant till the last 6.2 then hits the wall?
I’m more and more convinced that the Clegg/Cable duo, will start to pull over the undecided and others the nearer we get to a GE.
FPT: Not an especially brilliant start to the week for Cameron, and credit to most of the Tories here for admitting it. [In return I'll say that I hate interviewers constantly interrupting like that - it's part of our political yob culture and almost unique to Britain.] We all assume that the conference will give them a bounce, but what are the betting implications if it doesn’t?
FPT: svejk, Czech isn’t one of my languages (from your name it ought to be one of yours) and I can’t speak for the Guardian, but presumably Klaus’s reported remark relates to Cameron’s letter only having arrived a few weeks ago, by which time he may have made private commitments on what he’d do if the Irish voted yes. There was talk of the Czech Parliament impeaching or temporarily suspending him for failing to do his job if he simply sat on the signature for another 6 months - that seems to have died down, but note the conclusions of this:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2009/09/_normal_0_false_false.cfm
Meanwhile II …. Over at Mrs Dales Dairy the presumptive MP for Bracknell lists the nations most influential right-wingers …. and at number 99 pop-pickers is John Bercow !!
28. Sean Fear
“I think you misjudge the public mood. They want to be told how bad it is, but to be reassured that the person telling them how bad it is has a plan to make things better.”
Spot on.
Walk through any town centre at the moment and there’s an atmosphere of grimness and decline and this will increase as the weather worsens.
The broken Britain, time for a change feeling is strong and Labour cannot tap into it as to do so would require them to admit they’ve failed in government.
42 - No.
Plus, Vince’s halo is slipping, see his interview with Andrew Neil. Add in rumours of Michael Ashcroft planning to throw in lots of money into Twickenham, to ensure Saint Vince cant leave Twickers during an election campaign.
33. “27. Roger, as deluded as ever. There’s a real charm to your efforts, though.”
Even if you accept what Roger says about Cameron as true, I don’t on the whole, he ignores the fact that Brown is bloody awful when questioned, prone to droning on and gets angry very easily.
If Brown can’t cope with Sian Williams how will Brown cope with the debates?
Ozzie
‘Labour are the party of mass unemployment’
get in
47 - Have Marr chair all of them?
So Gordo what do you think about x…..10 minutes later, thank you for that…Cameron…no no thats enough…next question.
44 - Why do people keep on referring to Iain Dale’s diary as Mrs Dales diary?
It’s a genuine question.
35 If you aren’t a millionnaire - then under the Tories you can forget about Inheritance Tax.
Yippeee!! Hats in the air.
George Osborne should rename it the Dead Millionnaires Tax.
Waugh describes Marr as ‘hysterical’ - about right I thought. Clearly he had too many red Smarties before that interview and thought he was John Humphries.
I don’t think it was a strong performance by Cameron - he got unpicked on the job loss bit and he didn’t need to go into his house/bank statement details.
On the EU thingy - Marr was very boring - however Cameron opened the question back up again in his answer about Merkel so it carried on.
The Bullingdon question was so hackneyed - it was 20 yrs ago and so what? Class bigotry again.
Cameron 6/10 Marr 4/10
46
Cable will rise above that, the good people of Twickenham aren’t going to remove a star, ‘cos of Ashcroft’s filthy lucre. In fact it’ll probably work for Cable, ‘Do you want Lord Belize deciding who your MP should be’
49. I would love to see Jeff Randall involved in the Sky debate.
46. The decapitation strategy in reverse?…shouldn’t be too difficult to tie Huhne up in Eastleigh either. Although whether you might want to, given his off-putting recent performances, is a moot point…
FPT, another richard.
In all likelihood, the Conservatives will outperform UNS, as they did in 2005, but there could be many different reasons for that.
It could come down to an unwind in tactical voting; or better organisation in marginal seats, or favourable variations, by region and/or type of seat.
53 - The plan isn’t to unseat Cable, it’s too keep him tied up in Twickers, so he cant go out there and meet the great unwashed during a GE campaign.
43 Nick Palmer MP
We saw with the Lib Dem and Labour conferences that what the punditocracy and PB thinks, and what happens in interviews, and whatever tensions bubble beneath parties, has next to no impact on the polls.
The fact that policy is covered in headline bulletins improves the party’s polling. The only real deviation is with real bombshells, like the Sun announcement.
Of course there is a potential long-term impact, as journalists spend months prying open the hairline cracks which appear. But I fully expect a Conservative bounce this week - I reckon about 3 or 4 points.
50 I think it’s a play on “Mrs. Wilson’s Diary” from Private Eye.
Dale’s assessment (for what it is or isn’t worth), No Score Draw.
Sounds about right to me, Cameron won’t have won any new voters, but at the same time doubt lost many either. I would think most people will remember it for how annoying Marr was, rather than anything Cameron actually said.
50
Some years ago there was a long running radio soap called, ‘Mrs Dale’s Diary’ there may also be, (but surely not) a reference to Iain’s sexuality: although I’m sure none would stoop that low.
I would of course, but no one else.
I can’t believe Marr actually asked why he was against the ‘extra investment’ that was ‘protecting half a million jobs’, or whatever it was. That question was right out of the bunker.
Twickenham sells more copies of the Guardian than any other seat in London, so Cable should be safe, there. I think it’s likely that both Sutton seats will go, however.
59 Which itself was a play on a long-running soap opera on ‘the wireless’ called Mrs Dale’s Diary
59
’tis ‘ere
http://www.whirligig-tv.co.uk/radio/mrsdalesdiary.htm
56. Sean Fear
Or all of them and also greater determination of Conservative voters where it matters as seen in the June elections.
59;64 etc
Here’s a link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mrs_Dale’s_Diary
BBC ticker now running the “Cameron I have a house” line, with link to video….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8289334.stm
Did I miss something?
59/61/64/65 - Thank you.
62. Not only that but Darling has apparently complained about such lines being used as they can’t be supported. Hypothetical results such as jobs saved, lives saved, money saved are always suspect. It’s much easier to compare things that have happened than have not. e.g. Jobs lost, lives lost, money spent.
Osborne on Sky was better than Cameron on Marr.
70 - Now thats not something you normally hear said!
61 Given your description of Alan Duncan as “a degenerate” I’m surprised that you haven’t been more forthcoming.
I’m glad some balance is returning to Mike based on this post. Yes Brown is a disaster, but the idea that Cameron is a saviour is ludicrous. Like most politicians he is flawed. In his case there are some serious question marks. I think he’s also looking ill at the moment. He’s overweight and pasty. He doesn’t react well to criticism.
Thatcher or Blair he most certainly isn’t.
On the wider issue of the GE result, I still maintain that if Labour can hold the Tories to 12% lead by the turn of the year then a hung parliament is the likeliest outcome of this election. The gap will narrow, if only because Labour still hold some good cards and dislike for the Tories is not yet disippated. 12% in January will equate to about 6%-7% in the real thing - a hung parliament.
The one thing that did strike me from that performance was how still Cameron’s expression was - he gave little away and I liked his answer ‘I can put it to music if you’d like me to’ after what felt like an eternity of Marr heckling.
There was another giveaway in Marr’s attitude - when Cameron refused to give him the answer he wanted - he said IIRC ‘well that the problem with it isn’t it’.
I thought eh? Are we editorialising now?
BBC seem to think the fact that Cameron has a house in London is very important…Running it in the website ticker as “news”, with link to video.
No chance of Cable losing.
The Conservative strategy in Twickenham should be to try to reduce the majority below 5000 and then push hard for a win in 2014/5 when Cable is likely to stand down.
61 - I’m trying to think of the Party/MP which ran a campaign in a by-election where they described themselves as the “Straight Candidate/Choice” against an openly homosexual Labour candidate?
Any ideas?
50,59,61 – To be fair it is only JackW that refers Iain Dale’s Diary as Mrs Dale’s Dairy.
It provides the excuse to call Dale the ‘Chief udder tugger’ which tickles the old codger,
Don’t forget that Marr got it in the neck from lefties over the medications question to Brown. He then had to go out of his way to be difficult to Cameron to “prove” he is “even-handed”.
I’m putting this quote into the file.
Mr Cameron rejected suggestions that his party’s plans for tackling the budget deficit would lead to a signifcant rise in unemployment.
He said that the size of the deficit was a “clear and present danger” and failure to tackle it would cost more jobs.
“The danger of people losing their jobs is if we don’t deal with the deficit,” he said.
He said that a Conservative government would seek to reduce spending in a way that “avoids job losses” but accepted that by reducing the number of quangos job losses were inevitable.
“That will involve some people losing their jobs, I totally accept that,” he said.
The only people who will lose their jobs due tp spending cuts will be those employed, in or by Quangos.
‘You may remove your pound of flesh, but not one drop of blood’
“I think he’s also looking ill at the moment. He’s overweight and pasty. He doesn’t react well to criticism.”
Did you watch the same TV programme or were you thinking of Brown’s performance last week?
50. Actually I say Mrs Dale’s Dairy NOT Diary but the origin is from the fifties wireless show on the Home Service !!
I didn’t see the interview, wasn’t up in time but I will say this, everyone is entitled to an off day. David Cameron is usually pretty good at these interviews, if he gave a less good performance today it probably isn’t a terrible thing and may actually be a function of differential expectations.
72
It is Sunday sean!
70 yes, agreed, Ozzie was on good form, looked relaxed and gave reasonable answers. Boulton was rubbish - as usual he had not givne himself long enough to ask everything he wanted to.
While we dig into the minutiae of the Marr interview, it is worth remembering that the most read story on the BBC over at least the last 5 hours or so has been the Harman crash.
Note that that’s without any details of the alleged use of mobile phone while driving either.
That is the big political story today. Forget deficits and Lisbon - this is something every driver in the country understands.
83 What I was expecting from you was something along the lines of “he is a parasite, a liar, a pervert, a worm, a self-confessed player of the pink oboe, a man (or woman) who by his (or her) own admission, chews pillows.”
81
If you click on this link.
http://www.whirligig-tv.co.uk/radio/mrsdalesdiary.htm
scroll down, you can hear the most famous piece of harp music in history.
So OGH thinks that Cammers is tensing-up in the run-up to the General-Election. So he is the Jenson Button of politics?
[Interestingly I have Barrichello @ 12's for the F1 championship. Life can be a
Cherie Boothb1tch!]If Osborne manages to string a few words together, preferably in the right order, when interviewed then one of the Labour Party’s key tactics has been countered.
Is the full interview online anywhere?
Caught five minutes and it looked liked a fop out of its comfort zone.
It’s alright though because Dave is really great.
Although Marr was OTT - I’d rather Cameron got a bit of a roughing up on a Sunday morning show immediately before their conference then on prime-time after it.
And I agree - it will be remembered for Marr’s interruptions and not much else.
Pickles did a good turn on Gaby Logan - very softly softly.
86 - ….And most damning of all, “a fan of Jim Davidson”.
90 it will be on the IPlayer later tim
He wasn’t on best form. Brown’s efforts this week though were much much worse
Its clear that I am in line for a whole series of ‘come off its’
Mr Smithson clearly feels the need to be a cheerleader for the left. Picking snap out of a whole series is desperate stuff. Nick Palmer MPs self serving drivel is hopelessly laughable - a quote from the screaming mad europhile Economist ! — hah.
With Marr deliberately setting out to be rude and curry back favour with the left then its hardly surprising we get a disjointed interview.
The desperate media (led by Marr) seem determined to invent splits where there are none. They are the ones raking up Europe - the Tories seem sanguine about it.
But the week has already started as I predicted, with the BBC desperate to do all it can to invent problems for the Tories. Lets see how far its reporting gets out of synch with reality.
““MANY of the BBC’s highest-paid presenters have set up service companies that help them to pay less tax and will enable them to escape the full impact of Labour’s 50% levy on the rich.”” — Given that Marr asked about Cameron’s wealth I think all employees of the BBC should declare their own interest.
PS - any debates? These will undoubtedly be inconclusive. The likely formats will ensure this and unlike America we see Clegg Cameron and Brown virtually every week at PMQs. There is no novelty here. Brown has an edge - as long as he does not fall over in an epileptic fit he will have exceeded expectations.
Turns out Ahmadi-nejad is a self-hating Jew!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6256173/Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-revealed-to-have-Jewish-past.html
“Turns out Ahmadi-nejad is a self-hating Jew!”
That’s him crossed off RodCrosby’s hero list.
50,59 I think it refers to the wartime radio show Mrs Dale’s Diary, which ran from 1948-1969
(No I am not that old, jut very well-informed)
re 73. The notion of required swings and leads has been turned on its head by the PH mega marginals poll.
For the second year running this poll found double digit swings in key parts of England at a time when the national polls suggested 7 - 8% swings.
86
Hmmm are you sure, that isn’t what you really think sean, I’m becoming a vehicle for your own private thoughts about some of the people who’ve invaded your own party over the years.
Get it off your chest, you’ll feel much better.
92
Not as much of a fan as IDS, they were big mates, stood shoulder-to-shoulder on the Countryside march for instance.
Jim come back from Dubai your party needs you!
90 - Why does Timbot used de-humanising language against Dave!?
Ezio, thy Gawd, thinks it is a scandal.
93 - Good job he’s not after a big job if all it takes is the Irish Referendum to throw him off his stride.
88, really bad analogy. Button had a great start and has been lucky since. Cameron had a good start, an awful middle period, then a great bit (2007 conference) and has been a little up and down since then.
On F1, when I checked Vettel was strangely 13 or so, Barrichello 20s or 30s.
can’t say I saw the whole interview. But, the bits they were showing on beeb24 when I woke up this morning I thought he did well on and seemed clear and determined.
As I say though only saw clips, did he get asked about drugs?
92
Ah! yes those were the days.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1339928/Duncan-Smiths-true-blue-backer.html
‘Bliss it was to be alive’
If Marr comes from completely the wrong premise on for example cost cutting versus job losses and he deliberately tries to misinform the public about it then in future Cameron needs to point out that he seriously doubts his impartiality. Left wing journos like Marr and Robinson rely on the myth of BBC impartiality. If they are to not be truly impartial like a Robin Day or a David Frost then there is no longer any need to act like they are and the time has come to question their credibility and motives.
If Marr is no better or reasoned than Tim then I see no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt in terms of impartiality.
Exactly how many people actually watch Marr anyway? I’ve always thought it a bit sad to be watching politicians on the tele first thing on a Sunday morning.
103 - He said he hadn’t got any on him
75. Yes, and that will also go for several of the other well dug-in Lib Dems too. There needs to be (and I am sure there is) a 2-3 election strategy to winkle out the Lib Dems from N Norfolk, Lewes, parts of Cornwall etc. The long-term aim should be to remove them as a serious electoral force.
95 That’s very funny (but perhaps, unsurprising).
81 JackW. Are you quite sure Mrs Dale was on the Home Service and not The Light Programme ?
“I’m worried about JackW”…..was her catchphrase.
97-What war would that be? 1948-69?
98. We’ve looked at the “regional swing” mirage.
There are also areas where the Tories are underperforming. It won’t make much of a difference overall, perhaps an extra 5 seats for the Tories over UNS. My model takes account of this, anyhow.
108 The problem with that is you can’t tell how popular the Tories will be over such a long timeframe. It’ll depend on things beyond their control including does a Lib Dem incumbent choose to step down at a moment when the Tories have the momentum. Nice dream for you but I doubt anyone else will try and plan so impossibly far ahead. Events, events.
re 110. Spot on URW.
Mrs Dales Diary was on The Light Programme and ran from 1948 to 1969.
I’m surprised that Jack didn’t remember.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mrs_Dale’s_Diary
Nice one Mike!
Why was it not so obvious that you were going to start off the Tory conferance with lots of silly nonsense about Cameron and the Tories having problems about Europe and Cameron looking bad in a Tv interview snapshot !
Well carry on bashing em Mike perhaps 5 more years ofBrown is what you are really after!
#102, by Morris Dancer October 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
On F1, when I checked Vettel was strangely 13 or so, Barrichello 20s or 30s.
It was May when I made my one-and-only inter-webbie bet (so-far). Button was 4/9 and Vettel was about threes. Should have done I tri-cast though…!
117. LOL!
113 The Cold War ?
I’m sure this will be one of the better attended, ‘fringe meetings’
http://www.brugesgroup.com/mediacentre/releases.live?article=14053
A galaxy of stars.
61 I have half an inkling that perhaps Iain Dale might just, perhaps, have been taking and eensy-weensy bit of the p*ss out of himself by calling his blog by that name.
114 If so, that would mean that over the course of two elections, the Conservatives would have outperformed UNS by about 20 seats.
Miliband bigging up St. Anthony of Blair for the EU president gig. If Tony’s such a star, why did Labour ditch him in favour of Gordo the Clown?
41. I’m sure Tracy Emin’s departure for tax reasons will depress art lovers everywhere. Particularly those who are as obsessed with her vagina as she is. Those-like me-who don’t rate the execution of her obsession can read her eulogies about it in verse both framed on the wall or embroidered on various fabrics at her retrospective
123
Unlike Thatcher, (stabbed in the back) Blair did retire, due to a little arm twisting no doubt, but it was a retirement.
Who’ll be attending.
http://www.brugesgroup.com/mediacentre/releases.live?article=14053
any of you lot?
I would haves thought Iain Dale deliberately called his blog “Iain Dale’s Diary” because it brought to mind Mrs Dale’s Diary and is quite happy to get the JackW type response.
124 - Off to labourlist for a month for mentioning Tracy Enim’s lady bits whilst i’m trying to eat my breakfast.
124. Bitchy Roger!
124 – Roger please….it’s still Sunday morning for God’s sake.
The thing is when I think of Marr this song just keeps coming back into my head….
Sally called when she got the word,
And she said: “I suppose you’ve heard -
About Alice”.
When I rushed to the window,
And I looked outside,
And I could hardly believe my eyes -
As a big limousine rolled up
Into Alice’s drive…
Oh, I don’t know why she’s leaving,
Or where she’s gonna go,
I guess she’s got her reasons,
But I just don’t want to know,
‘Cos for twenty-four years
I’ve been living next door to Alice
Alice, (Alice) who the f*ck is Alice
I don’t know why?
117 - When’s the resignation you ramper? Plus is your source the same person who told you that no side had won the 2nd Irish Referendum?
118, who did you back?
re 114. That is a statement of the ble**ding obvious. If you get disproportionate swings in one group of seats that will be balanced by other seats working in the opposite direct.
I thought you understood averages.
The critical thing is what is happening in segments where the mass of marginals are - and most of those have double digit moves.
122. No. As John Curtice showed, the Tories didn’t really outperform UNS in 2005.
Instead, UNS needed slight tweaking [the introduction of probabilistics] to account for non-uniformity in the marginal distribution. I think the regional effect amounted to 2 seats in the Tories favour.
Interesting that the Beeb haven’t used the EU bit of the Marr show in the clips.
They picked Cameron’s personal wealth/welfare reform/dealing with deficit.
Interesting news judgement since Marr went on about so much - clearly still a non-story despite his best efforts.
OK, I’ll try again (connection problems, sorry if this doubles up)
For anyone who plays poker, Cameron has a fairly obvious ‘tell’ - you can pick on his interviews which questions he feels are the most critical and that he is most nervous about answering correctly.
134. Sky are using the EU bit.
129 - That song is a million Miles from the song I’d associate with Marr. I was thinking more of the proclaimers, 500 miles.
re 133. So how do you account for the double digit swings in the PH segments where the bulk of the key marginals are?
The Tories are doing much worse than expected in Scotland, against Lib Dem incumbents and in London. But this is more than balanced by the towns of England.
Go look at those numbers.
137 - Mike, will we be getting any more articles on VIPA?
Anyone tried running the PH figures through VIPA?
I’ll be doing that tonight when I get home. I wonder what VIPA predicts?
136. Ah yes I hadn’t thought of that one. Good point.
When I’m working, yes I know I’m gonna be
I’m gonna be the man who’s working hard for you
And when the money, comes in for the work I do
I’ll pass almost every penny on to you
When I come home(When I come home), well I know I’m gonna be
I’m gonna be the man who comes back home to you
And if I grow-old,(When I grow-old) well I know I’m gonna be
I’m gonna be the man who’s growing old with you
Was it this verse you were thinking of?
112/11d. Indeed the Light Programme of blessed (lost)memory.
Mr Marr isn’t short of a bob or two!
I agree with you,OGH and disagree with RC but still have a lot of sympathy and respect for his position.
The phrase “You gotta dance with the one you brung !” springs to mind.
I brung a few to this GE puzzle back in 2006 and one of them gave me the clap……metaphorically speaking.
Seems the way the EU-fanatics thinks (from the pro-EU Spanish newspaper, El Pais):
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/opinion/Lecciones/irlandesas/elpepuopi/20091004elpepiopi_2/Tes
Note the call for sanctions for those who are not 110% signed up to the “project”.
16 Sean just to emphasise the point. While most people in Kirkcaldy were growing up in social housing in the 1950s and much of it poor quickly built post war stock or traditional overcrowded mining row type housing, Gordon Brown grew up in a traditional Scottish Manse which would have been a large comfortable house with all current amenities. The house would have been free to his father and in addition his stipend would have been on a par with a middle class salary plus of course his final salary pension and muchof the running costs of the household paid by the parish members
#131, by Morris Dancer October 4th, 2009 at 11:48 am
118, who did you back?
It should have been £10 on Button. I wondered why I had £5 left the following day…!
140 - Jack, perhaps you should take a few tips from this woman
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/elderhealth/6257032/Woman-107-is-proof-that-a-little-of-what-you-fancy-does-you-good.html
re `138. Yes - when things have settled down after the conferences. Robert is doing an update on VIPA.
I’m planning a UNS thread in the next couple of days
140 Jack W. Care to call Sheffield Central?
“They seem to think without it (regulation) banks could steal our money” Quite a quote from Cameron before he changed tack after the banks went bust!
145, easy to make mistakes though. I feel like a cretin for tipping but not backing Button at 79/1.
I’d prefer Vettel to win the next GP with Barrichello second and Button with no points. I’m all green, but it’d allow me to lay a bit.
Also, apologies for my delayed pb2 review of Suzuka, I’m going to try and do it now, though my time is short.
143. Charming stuff at the end there; the authoritarian and dogmatic attitudes of the EU elite nicely encapsulated.
147 - I look forward to both.
Miliband and Pickles are on the politics show at 12 noon, Pickles twittered he was looking forward to it.
153 Excellent - am just about to tune in - I can never remember when it’s on.
153 - Which Miliband is it? Bananaman or Jnr?
bananaman
144 Easterross I thought it was interesting that the phrase used about paying for the NHS was ‘could not EASILY have afforded to pay’. That was really weasily and showed that they weren’t that orinary compared with much of the rest of the town.
157 oops - slip there. I meant of course paying for healthcare not the NHS!
156 - ta
155. The ‘Big Banana’ is doing the rounds. He’s already been on Sky (didn’t take any notice though).
144 As a fellow Scot you know that in the 1950s the Parish Minister was next in the hierarchy to the Laird and before the lawyers and doctors. I met someone who was at school with Brown and said he behaved like the spoilt son of someone important and that he knew there was nothing ordinary about him.
A quick thought on the megapoll. I see the fieldwork was done the week of the LibDem conference and leading into the Labour conference. I wounder what the result would be if the fieldwork started this coming week and not 3 weeks ago?
Suzuka Review up, brief due to lack of time: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/10/suzuka-review.html
161 should ahve been to Alan at 157 sorry
The calibre of the interview was epitomised by Marr’s demands to know how much Cameron was “worth”. Couple that together with his questions on Brown’s pill taking, what is Marr up to? he’s not usually so controversial?
163 Who’s Alan?
40 - well, thats the impartial beeb for you
146 scream. Just to confirm that my tackle remains as firmly attached as it was 107 years ago !!
148 Punter. On Sheffield Central - Caborn going helps the Lib Dems and Scriven seems to be punching above his weight, aided no doubt by being Leader of the Council. Still it’s a decent majority to overturn. On balance - too close to call.
Apologies if already posted. Gove to replace failing schools with Academies:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article6860242.ece
Test
Well, I’ve just visited the scene of the “car crash” with clips of the interview on “The Politics Show”. I’d been told there was a dead body but DC seemed right as rain (like Harry Lime)
Is anyone else getting a cannot display error message after they post (using Internet Explorer)?
Gove is going to replace failing schools with failing academies?
Eh?
171 yes I am. If you click the back arrow and then refresh it sorts itself out
71
Yes
171 I get a blank page in Firefox when posting.
Have a look/laugh at Pickles on Europe
171 yes
Miliband seems to be conflating the positions of the Czech PM and the Czech President…
Pickles a bit smug awkward - pity
Pickles on the Beeb “Doing a Howard” on the Lisbon treaty.
BTW …. Is Pickles pickled ?? softly, softly mogadon man !!
161. Indeed I questioned the timing of the poll as doing it anytime during the conference season is likely to include immediate responses to what is happening at the conferences and potentially make it a little unrepresentative.
IMO it would have been better timed when there is a relative lull in the political scene.
Pickles doesn’t come over very well…
Big Eric deflating slowly and quietly
Re 171/173/174/175
Mike Smithson:
Has anything been changed on the site? As it seems there is a minor problem (IIRC we’ve had a similar problem before a while back?).
“The critical thing is what is happening in segments where the mass of marginals are - and most of those have double digit moves.”
The MOE on the PH regional swings is about 2%, so I wouldn’t take any of them literally.
History suggests the dispersion on polling day won’t be as wide.
Test
err what part of you promised one doesn’t Milliband not understand
Miliband has no answer over why no referendum for the British people “We are a Parliamentary democracy” Yeah - elected on a manifesto that pledged a referendum. So that Parliamentary decision has no legitimacy on Lisbon…
92 - the class warrior arrives!!
Can’t wait to see you lay into Harman
re 185 Struggling Rod.
OUCH Nazi Pickles question
Pickles quietly sticking the stiletto into Miliband on Latvia…
Eric Pickles is kind of like the Tories Prezza. He’ll become a bit of a joke, but he’ll actually be quite important to the early days of the government, IMO.
O/T Even if you don’t like Farage does anyone think this on LDV is a little over the top? “Would slavery have been abolished under Farage?”
167 Jack W. Further factor making it a probable Lib Dem gain. The Leader factor. Yes Clegg is not in the seat but he is right next door and that should spill over to a good degree in Sheffield Central, and even Sheffield more generally but to a lesser amount.
This is wonderful - best political TV of the year
192 MM. The idea of Pickles wearing stilettos is quite novel !!
William Hague could tear Miliband apart over some of these open goals, but Pickles is missing them all.
I note Miliband’s use of “euroextremists” in the Tory party. The most extreme view in the Conservative party is simply to be outside a political integrationist bloc like countries like Canada and Australia and Norway. The most extreme view in the Labour view is to abolish British sovereignty and form a single European state. Guess which one most British people would view as extreme?
196 That image is teetering unsteadily in my imagination….
109 - he could always ask Gordo the clown
194 Punter. Good point but still much work to do to overturn a solid majority.
Is that really Manchester in the background ?
OMG…now the Beeb is onto hunting…
Oh not hunting again - is this the best the BBC can do?
144. Not the Sheffields obviously but more than adequate for people of their station.
If I’ve translated you correctly Easterross?
“Oh look,Daddy.The Berkshire Hunt is on the telly !”
The point about Milliband is he is being given an opportunity to attack the conservatives and interview to try to interrupt the tory conference. Tories were absent from the BBC screens during the labour conference. The lefty BBC is giving every opportunity to labour to detract airtime to tories.
Milliband is of course talking bollocks.
171 - was getting it with Opera - but the posts got through
205 Mandelson - where?
203. UKIP up next !!
Today’s Greek election: I understand polls will be closed at 1600 GMT. Does anybody know whether there will be exit polls, and have link to a results page?
BTW, I’ve put my money on a large (+6%, preferably +7) PASOK win.
Oh and next we have Farage…
So, for the Tory Conference, the Beeb majors on Europe, hunting and, er, Europe.
There’s gonna be a reckoning, Beeboids. It ain’t going be pretty…
211 - black ties and tears at Al Beeb as the election results come in?
200 Jack W. What level do you divide solid majorities from their counterparts? IMHO It depends on national polling and therefore if Labour are polling below 30% any seat with a majority of 5,000 or less (Sheffield Central is 4,000 something iirc)cannot be regarded as solid. That doesn’t mean it can’t/won’t be held but it does in my view place it on a higher level of vulnerability than you seem to indicate as your view. Your thoughts?
210 - here is a link to the Greek TV and website channels if that helps
http://www.etv.gr/
212. You don’t think Al Beeb will have the champagne on ice like the did when the government last changed, then?
43 NPMP. Thank you. So you approve of the Guardian qouting from the unknown contents of a letter, making an assumption that fits their story, then stating it as a fact?
The BBC is certainly relentlessly on message today - a message that will have no resonance at all beyond a tiny circle of frothing Guardianistas.
Daily Mail on Harriet’s case
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1217974/Im-Harriet-Harman–know–What-Minister-allegedly-told-witness-crashing-parked-car.html
Oh look tim “She was born into a wealthy and privileged family. Her late father, John, was a Harley Street doctor and her mother, Anna, a solicitor.”
This Grant Shapps bloke is one to watch…
211 Clearly there is a case for an independent and responsible national broadcaster.
As a fan of what the BBC once was, it saddens me. But to restore confidence in the BBC, a process is required similar to post war German de-Nazification.
215 - I’m guessing hemlock rather than champagne
221. With bit of luck……
219 Socrates
Definitely… he’s quite impressive.
Back on topic. I’ve been quite amazed just how much of a free ride Cameron and his Tory chums have been given so far. Their strategy of just floating into office without anyone really noticing was a non-starter.
The election starting-gun has been effectively fired, and the Tories’ facade will collapse under proper scrutiny.
Game On!
Any truth in this?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1217984/Humiliation-Gordon-Brown-US-plan-G4-elite-Britain.html
“reports in the United States claim President Barack Obama is keen to establish a top table of global economies which would leave Britain on the sidelines.
The proposal will put further pressure on Chancellor Alistair Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown as Britain also faces dismissal from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).”
213 Punter. Under most circumstances 5,000 is a solid majority, the more so in some of Labours urban seats with smaller electorates. Let’s not forget that landslide wins are not the norm in our electoral system. Also I’d expect Labour to pick up somewhat, perhaps 2-4% before the general election is called.
Time for Sunday luncheon - Roast leg of finest Rutland pork !!
Laters ….
219. I’ve always thought he’s quite a good TV performer when I’ve seen him doing the Sky paper review.
170: I agree. Having just watched it, I can’t see the big deal, either. More a Party Political Broadcast by the Marr party but I’m afraid he came across as hectoring and infantile with his endles repetition and amateur drama. Pretty bad interview.
225 of course. but it isnt news or even surprising.
224. Well thats completely unbiased analysis there Rod, isn’t it?
You see, after posting something like that, even assuming I was barmy enough to take you electoral analysis serious, after reading that post you’d have blown any credability you had.
The fact is, you loath Camerons Tories and you don’t want them to form a government. And you’ll twist any analysis to get the result at the next election that you want. Thats the truth isn’t it?
Re 224. “proper scrutiny”= misinformation,lies, smears and delusional conclusions.
Putting Pickles up instead of Hague against Milliband regarding Europe.
Tells you all you need to know about Camerons policy regarding the Lisbon Treaty after it is ratified in the next 3 months.
A complete and utter joke.
Kenneth Clarke in private must think what a bloody shambles.
Anybody keep getting an error message everytime they post? The post goes through OK, but the page doesn’t load and goes to the Internet Explorer error page instead. Its pretty annoying.
232. Or maybe William’s keeping his powder dry until later in the week? I’m sure we’ll hear from him in due course.
214 Thanks, marcia!
230. Given some of Rods other views I’m surprised anyone takes anything he says seriously…….
233 - Yes, as reported by many up thread. OGH is aware of it tho.
Nigel Farage is such a pompous clown! Jesus Christ!
230. I’m not really interested whether you take it seriously. Perhaps I’d prefer it that you don’t. You’ll be even more gutted then when it happens, and that might please me.
I hated Blair. I loathe Cameron. I love elections and statistics.
That is all you need to know.
238, nice of the BBC to give him airtime on the eve of the Tory conference.
236 - Don’t be unkind, just say reltiH flodA three times out loud and he’ll disappear.
A few things sprang out at me with Cameron’s interview.
One thing that remains unclear and could hinder him this week was the evasiveness over whether he will hold a referendum as PM if Lisbon is finally ratified.
His stock answer doesn’t do it. If he is demanding that Brown have an opinion on Megrahi why can’t he give his on a post-ratification referendum?
It didn’t help that he almost sounded like he was pleading with Marr to move off the issue of Europe at one point.
He then made himself look unsure footed by raising the issue in connection with the CDU matter.
It just looked like he was between the rock and the hard place and this could dog him this week.
re 210 Jan - Double Carpet - Paul Maggs - is planning a Greek election special for later on this afternoon.
On the contrary the Tories have got to keep Pickles off the TV - he comes across dreadfully.
Perhaps if I’m proved correct on the one, you might apply your pea-brain to the other…
244. My girlfriend did say, “Is that man ok? There seems like there’s something wrong with him…”
Can we stop the personal abuse please.
Pickles has been off form this morning on TV - was fine on the radio.
He needs to get his sense of humour back pronto.
Is Eric Pickles ill? His voice definitely sounded a bit off.
246. I thought that too, FWIW.
I did post this ealier but seems to have got lost.
Eric’s best line
“I’m sorry I’m interrupting you again” to the interviewer
I disagree about Pickles. His job is to act as a sort of lightning conductor - to take the sting out of attacks without raising the temperature.
He’s low key and ultra-polite and it’s unlikely that much of what he says will get picked up by the bulletins.
Sky: “Cameron heading into a full-scale row over Europe”
RodCrosby@185, on the regional swing, from memory, didn’t PH find something similar last year as well? If so, it doesn’t sound like this effect is just sampling error, does it?
“I’m not really interested whether you take it seriously.”
We took your Conservative targets for Crewe seriously, can you remind everyone what they were?
“I hated Blair. I loathe Cameron.”
But admire Ahmadinajad.
252 And he’s usually very good at it - this morning’s TV persona seemed unlike his usual self.
The Sopel apology request was a stunner.
100 - Mike, the marginals survey showed the Tories doing slightly less well than nationally against Labour incumbents and much less well against LibDem incumbents. It’s risky to generalise on the basis of entire regions being ‘key’ - we all do it here but it’s individual seats that are key, and each region has the full range from ultra-marginal to almost safe. Depending on how large the swing is, different seats come into the spotlight and different regions become significant.
I thought Pickles was bad on the “do you know what you’ll do if the treaty is ratified” and pretty good on the apology question.
Miliband did fairly well though he was rather too smug.
It sounded like Pickles might have had a sore throat or a heavy cold though.
Sky are ramping the Tory ‘row’ without providing any evidence of the row actually occuring
254. Not just sampling error, meaning the sample might be biased as well?
I would only use the figures to roughly rank-order the high to low swings. The magnitudes are too uncertain, and history says the range shown is too large.
Well the europhiles in the media are chucking everything at the Conservatives. The BBC allowed Milliband to grandstand without holding him to account for reneging on their manifesto commitment.
Today comes across one of the last desperate attempts to prevent a Conservative victory at the GE.
The BBC are just digging a deeper hole for themselves and losing all hope of any sympathy from the incoming Govt. Fools.
From Dale
“I have to say that Tory candidate Louise Bagshawe has articulated Tory European policy in three tweets better than either David Cameron or Eric Pickles did this morning.
Here’s our policy on Lisbon: we oppose it, and we want a referendum. And if it’s not ratified by polling day, we’ll have one. And if it is?
If it is, we’ll announce what we do about its lack of legitimacy then. The Tories: crossing bridges when we come to them.
Labour hates it when David Cameron is pragmatic. It’s sweet how desperate for a Euro-split they are. This sceptic is fine w/ being practical.”
Even though politically he ‘aint my cup of tea, I like Farage, he came across well today, and he’s honest about his beliefs, much of which is in tune with true Conservative feelings.
Milliband so slick, he makes Cameron look rough, Pickles well,he was so terrified of saying anything his voice had disappeared to somewhere below his waist.
Information sure to make the Harman crash case even more interesting, from the Grauniad
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/04/harriet-harman-car-crash
It seems Harriet has form…
Labour expectations according to shadsy. shadsy is the compiler for Ladbrokes and easily the best and most combative.He makes mistakes but also gets a lot of things right.He has been consistently bearish on Labour.
Total Ruin: Fewer than 150 Seats= 13.1%.
Laughing Stock: 150-174 inc.= 15.15%.
Normal Expectation: 175-224 inc.= 43 %.
Respectability: 225-274 inc= 16.66%.
Triumph: 275+= 12.1%
I have used 120% as a lazy base and trimmed ‘TOTAL RUIN’ and ‘TRIUMPH’ a little.
Obviously Ladbrokes don’t Lay those percentages so don’t all rush !
I’m intrigued about this concept civil-war breaking out in the Conservative party over Europe and Hannan being at the forefront. It’s utter nonsense. This from Hannan’s blog.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100012366/the-referendum-row-and-the-conservative-conference/
It seems that the only people getting ‘excited’ are journos (such as Jon Craig on Sky) and socialists with an lack of comprehension of the English language.
It seems to me it is they who are obsessing over Europe.
I think the BBC are doing a Sun - Farage wading in on the debate format was interesting, messy arguments ahead me thinks
I seriously doubt that there will be any Conservative splits on Europe or anything else before the election.
By bigging up these supposed splits it will enable the Conservatives to look more united.
Regarding Harman’s driving incident, this together with Scotland’s disregard of the law will go down very badly in middle England. People have to follow so many aggravating and seemingly pointless rules and regulations these day so it doesn’t look good when those in government act as though laws don’t apply to them.
The media seem very interested in a Tory EU split story. At present, the evidence of such a split seems skimpy - I’ll take it seriously if a Tory MP or former Cabinet minister calls David Cameron a numpty publicly on the subject. But the willingness of the press to try to make it into a story is probably the best news Labour has had all week.
264. They should take her licence away from her.
268 another richard
I think driving whilst using a mobile phone should automatically carry a presumption of a prison sentence.
It seems at least as dangerous to me as drink driving.
Remember Lord Ahmed? He got 3 months in prison for texting whilst driving (though it was reversed on appeal).
Harman should get at least the same if the Mail story is accurate.
253 - Wow, so the Irish voted ‘yes’ to Lisbon!!! Never saw that one coming!!!
271 Labour and the law… they just don;t get on these days
re 257. I agree Nick - but that massive 13.4% in your region following a double digit swing in last year’s poll surely says something.
Labour incumbents are doing better but my understanding from the data is that these swings are applied AFTER the local prompted secondary question has been put.
In Labour held seats in the East Midlands that secondary question produced overall shares of C46-L29-LD15. To the first question “national” voting intention question the East Midlands split was C47-L25-LD15.
This was from a sample for your region of 1,815 voters.
268 - it has gone down badly, read the comments in the Mail article I linked to above.
That article pointed out her “pedigree” as well.
Expect tim to lay into her anytime now
269 Yup, it is the best Labour have had for days - more like lazy journalism to me.
The good news for the Tories is that the weather is nice
I think the issue with the EU-split stories isn’t that the TV media is out to get the Tories because of a partisan bias as many people allege. Instead its the cultural bias that everyone at these stations comes from a centre-left background so they have a certain conception of what the Conservatives are. They believe the bulk of the party is still sceptical of “wet” David Cameron, and will turn on him if we don’t get a referendum after Lisbon’s ratified. Thus their editorial decisions reflect this fight which they believe is bound to happen.
271 – Err, the Labour peer Lord Ahmed was involved in a fatal accident whilst on his mobile and got jail time.
Harman broke the law certainly, actually several, but no one was killed or injured.
But admire Ahmadinajad.
Yes I do! And if he’s Jewish, so much the better. It destroys the “anti-Semitism” canard, doesn’t it? There are plenty of good Jews who don’t spout the Hollywood hokum, and encourage grown-up debate about the subject.
On Harman, one point that does endear me to her. Seems she was driving her own private car - a Fiesta. Not grand enough for the likes of Prescott, and can’t imagine Kaufman, among others, having one. Considering his TV set is worth more than Harriet’s car.
It really mystifies me how the media can get away with reporting a split that has not yet shown itself
Polly was beside herself with excitement this morning
253 Rod who will Cameron be having the row with ?
Himself I presume to take splinters from his backside to make a decision on what he is going to do after Lisbon is ratified.
As no one else dare during conference week wreck his life boat of hanging on to a deluded unreality.
278 SimonStClare
We discussed this ad nauseum at the time.
Ahmed didn’t cause the accident because he was texting. He sent the text messages in question minutes before the crash.
The accident was more or less irrelevant to the jail sentence - apart from ensuring that the circumstances were fully investigated.
The jail sentence was for texting whilst driving.
Texting whilst driving and talking whilst driving should carry the same punishment.
What do Conservatives think of this when many of their favourite ideas are inspired by California?
Fascinating to watch stage 2 of the Labour fightback - the ’stop the Tory conference’ bounce before it starts…
We’ll see in the daily YouGov polls if this works (I rather doubt it) but it looks like the narrative isn’t - ‘here’s the next PM and Cabinet, what do you want to say’ but ‘this is the next Govt in waiting and you have to show us your for real and can take the heat.’
That sort of test is nothing to what they’ll have once they are in power… so I welcome this test of the Tory mettle. I think it’ll come through with a few wobbles but as a result they’ll be stronger for the election campaign and ultimately Govt when it happens.
IHT = Tip top topper. We’re lovin’ it.
279. Yes, because a raving Islamist fundamentalist nutjob turns out to have Jewish roots, it means that his Holocaust-denial must be based on rational considerations rather than anti-Semitism.
Re my post at 286
Before the pedants flail me, I of course mean “talking on a mobile phone” in my last sentence.
281. If she did break the law, then she should surely resign immediately.
283. I wouldn’t be too touched by seeing Hattie was driving - if you read the Mail article further down you’ll see this:
Normally, Ms Harman has a silver, chauffeur-driven Toyota Prius but she has recently been seen driving a red Ford Fiesta.
I wonder why that change might be? Election anyone?
277. The MOE on the swing (assuming an unbiased sample, which is a big assumption) is about 2.5%.
It’s curious that the East Midlands is the only place where the Tory swing has “increased” since the last PH poll, while everywhere else, and nationally, it has decreased. That alone shrieks “extreme caution”, imho.
The leader debates won’t happen IMO. The fact that all three leaders have agreed “in principle” is not a novel occurrence. They often agree in principle, knowing that the legal and logistical minefield is always likely to be unsurmountable.
265. URW
Thanks, that’s interesting.
So Shadsy rates a hung parliament at about 25% and a Conservative majority at about 75% with a landslide at about 35%.
Can’t argue with that.
That Shadsy’s too good
264. The BBC’s finest moment this morning came on the West Midlands edition of the Politics Show.
As a result of the government drive for efficiency savings and a direct request from the National Audit Office, Warwickshire Fire Service has produced a report that if implemented would result in fewer, larger fire stations in the region.
Question to a Tory PPC “Is this a good example of Tory (controlled Warwickshire Council) cuts?”
I have just watched the Cameron interview. I agree not one of his best but Marr isn’t a great interviewer and starts each line of questioning with a premise that he won’t concede. For example Marr states millions will lose their jobs under the Conservatives, Cameron says this isn’t true and we will explain why in our conference and then Marr says but what about the human consequence of all the millions your going to make unemployed and around and around we go.
My suspicion on this, and on the other issues, especially Europe, is that Cameron is just taking the hit at the interview (as others have said it won’t make a difference in the greater scheme of things) knowing that the election is a marathon, not a sprint. In an interview you can only answer the questions put to you and if the interviewee refuses to accept the answers there is not much you can do.
As to Europe the premise seems to be that if Lisbon is ratified Cameron is just going to roll over and they have no plan for dealing with the EU post ratification. Short term hit to the Conservatives. But if the treaty is ratified and they then come out immediately with a firm and broadly popular set of proposals then the original premise is shot and gone. It isn’t always necessary to win every battle to win the war.
re 284. What you are seeing is the media narrative at work. There’s a collective view that Ireland produces a problem for the Tories so reporters are sent out to get the story.
The reason Andy Coulson is putting up Pickles rather than Hague is to play down everything. A good tactic.
I think the objective is to take the “sting” for Europe today and have it out of the way by Monday or Tuesday.
I didn’t see the Cameron interview so cant comment on how he did either way. but some of the questions seem way out of touch with what people worry about.
The biggest political story with lasting implications for all MPs was the fiona Pilkington story. The admission by the police officer that it wasn’t their job to deal with low level crime was surely a bigger worry to the public than stories about pills, the Bullingdon club or how wealthy mp’s are, but the story was barely covered by political journalists.
Maybe as well as a new government the UK needs a st of new journlists too.
What is the ‘evidence’ that there is a split within the Tory party over the EU, Irish YES vote etc? All I see is wishful thinking.
242. Your posts are becoming more and more tetchy Rod…
297 yes, I can see that. I suppose they want the lanes cleared for the big announcements this week on getting people back to work and the like.
More Ozzie will be a winner if he is on as good form as with Boulton today
295 - This is a report produced by officers who have their own agenda. I, and presumably the PPC, are not experts on the logistics of fire-fighting. “If implemented” (presumably without change) is the key.
Bl**dy stupid question.
297. I think Mike is spot on. This tactic will probably work unless some more relatively senior Tories say something off-message (perfectly possible - see Boris this morning for example..)
It’s unlikely that the media / Labour will be able to keep this going until Tuesday which is the first really important day for the Tories (Osborne’s speech)…
238.”Nigel Farage is such a pompous clown! Jesus Christ!”
I was joking about Farage turning up in UKIP tank at the Tory Conference with goggles and a starched scarf last night! Who obliged today, the BBC?
296. and starts each line of questioning with a premise that he won’t concede
Indeed, he might as well precede each question with:
Gordon told me last week
Tim “I’m the voice of the Tory grassroots, me” Montgomerie says so.
It must be true.
298. ‘as well as a new government the UK needs a seat of new journalists too’
Yes indeed. Political journalism in the UK is at a very low ebb indeed just now. A whole generation of Labour hacks are headed for oblivion.
297 - Absolutely right. And already attention is becoming more focused on the specifics of the party’s ‘Getting Britain Working’ programme that will be unveiled in full tomorrow, closely followed by Osborne’s budget strategy on Tuesday.
That’s agenda setting stuff. Whether it will be seen as a big move to sealing the deal under intense media scrutiny is obviously the big question. I think it will.
Posts were taking forever to submit last night, but now its got worse. You get a blank screen after posting, but the comment does land up on the thread?
306. What has Tim said?
291. scrapheap
“Normally, Ms Harman has a silver, chauffeur-driven Toyota Prius but she has recently been seen driving a red Ford Fiesta.
I wonder why that change might be? Election anyone?”
I remember when the Abrahams donation scandal occurred Harman was filmed getting into a very old and decrepit car.
I wondered at the time why someone who gets paid as much as Harman does, not to mention her husband’s and inherited money, should drive such a car.
304 don;t you worry about Nigel, once he loses against Bercow he will be back to his role as a comedy butler to the stars.
306 - I know… but Montgomerie was pretty well ‘on message’ so we’ll overlook his pretensions on this occasion.
297 Mike they are just getting ready to soften the blow of betrayl to the Euro sceptics, they will announce the new policy at christmas time.
Then quickly move on to fighting the election in the New year.
Don`t want to say anything when everyone is at conference, just play a holding pattern.
309 ChristinaD
I’m getting the same thing (in Firefox).
Whilst we’re griping, it keeps forgetting my name/email details, which I have had to enter every time for a while (roughly since the much-missed edit function disappeared?)
314
Out of interest, what will be the new policy?
294 another richard.Extrapolating the figures you do is hard work for me, as the bands I put up don’t fit neatly into the scenarios you describe.
I think that Labour sub 240 takes us into Con Overall territory and Labour sub 280 describes a Con Most Seats.
If I had to have a bet I would boringly plump for the ‘Normal Expectation’ area between 175 and 224.
292. RodC
“It’s curious that the East Midlands is the only place where the Tory swing has “increased” since the last PH poll, while everywhere else, and nationally, it has decreased. That alone shrieks “extreme caution”, imho.”
Actually the swing in the East Midlands was a bit lower than last year - some of the numbers given on the front page were inaccurate.
There was an increase in the swing though in the West Midlands.
Just saw Hannan on Sky, no evidence of a split there, it’s media frenzy. I think they should all take a long slow deep breath and wait for the conference proper. Seems to me like a whole lot of hyper-ventilating going on to me.
314 true I would think as Cameron isn;t daft, he knows Lisbon is likely to be ratified. They would be best employed at this stage hammering home Labour and the Lib Dems flip-flop and manifesto lies over a referendum. It is de facto proof of the duplicity and untrustwothiness of both left of centre parties.
‘Yes Lisbon is a complicated issue, we are the only one of the 3 main parties to hold a consistent position on it, the only one’s to have kept to their pledge.’
309, 315 I keep getting bunted to a connection error screen in IE but usually the post is still submitted
Also getting blank page Christina , but post did appear.
315
wibbler
Ditto Firefox here. PIA. I have form complete switched on and it occasionally works by clicking on the name box…
309. I’ve been getting this too, Christina.
314. I don’t think theres going to be any “european betrayal.” Not only is Cameron a genuine eurosceptic himself (its not an act as most lefties comfort themselves into believing it is) but he’s not stupid. Given how over-whelmingly eurosceptic the party is now, it would be kind of daft to just let the whole european thing go, wouldn’t it?
This is what amuses me about the so called “Tory Splits” on Europe. The party is no longer split. It is perfectly solid around a eurosceptic position. Faces like Leon Britain, Chris Pattern, Hezza and even Ken Clarke, are dinosaurs from another era. Their time has been and gone. The fact they still hold their europhile views and remain in the Tory Party is neither here nor there against what is now the prevailing mood.
Usual pathetic anti-Tory line from Mike Smithson. A screen shot. Really? You can take a screen of absolutely anyone and find a moment when they look like Cameron does.
325. Mike S is regularly accused of being too PRO Cameron, would you believe.
Today’s winner for most unsurprising news: SNP threaten legal action over debate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8289367.stm
Hello everyone, I’m Eric Pickles and I’m turning down the volume.
He looked like an anti-ketamine education programme.
What an entertaining mornings incoference from the Tories.
Osborne was the most coherent by the sounds of it.
Personally, I trust David Cameron to protect british intersts, another 5 years of Labout, aided and abetted no doubt by the LidDems, would reduce Westminster to not much more than a Parish Council.
“THE European Union is preparing to sweep aside British objections and allow 60-ton foreign “mega-lorries” to be driven on roads in the UK.”
“The transport department said it opposed any EU super-lorry proposal “that did not give the UK the power to block their use on UK roads for safety or environmental reasons.” A spokesman said Britain would be obliged to adopt EU legislation but added: “This is unlikely to happen.””
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6860143.ece
“Usual pathetic anti-Tory line from Mike Smithson. ”
Don’t be daft.
Query, didn’t catch all of John Swinney’s interview on the Scottish edition of the Politics show today. Are the SNP going to try and block coverage of a leaders debate if it goes ahead unless Salmond is included, and would this include going down a legal avenue?
328. Your lot unleashed Prezza on us for a decade, now the Tories are going to give the nation several year of Pickles.
The reaction of some (most?) Tory posters on here is very strange.
For a start, “news” means far more than the Conservative Conference. So the result from the Irish referendum, for example, is the story, and a Conservative reaction is just something that gets tagged onto it. Similarly, a Farage reaction to the Irish referendum is relevant. This dos not mean that the BBC is deliberately trying to “bury the good news” of the Tory Conference.
But it is also worth pointing out that the media love finding splits within parties, even when they do not exist. A good example was the Liberal Democrat Conference, which was a very good one. The media went around looking for trouble, finding/inventing something, blowing it up enormously, and then the Tory Herd on PBC goes into raptures about how disastrous it all was.
We are not seeing BBC bias and malpractice, for heaven’s sake. We are just seeing journalists and reporters doing what they have been trained to do.
And they do it to everybody.
So Mandy calls in a few favours, gets the Irish Lisbon vote taken just before Tory Conference, preps the news media “You watch - this is going to be bloody…” and - lo and behold - the media run with it.
Except, there is no blood. Harmony breaks out in Tory ranks. Press resort to Leon Brittan as evidence of this civil war.
Net result - media look like prats, and Mandy’s credibility takes a battering…
Result!!!
325.Doug, underestimate Mike Smithson’s instincts when it comes to political media coverage at your peril!
grr typing.. Labout = Labour , on second thoughts
333. The media generally in incredibly dumb, cynical and stupid. Unfortunately its just a fact we all have to live with nowadays…
325. Doug - Mike is as impartial as you can find these days. Yes it is an unflattering photo but he has done just as bad to Brown and probably worse.
Just read all the comments about my blog title.
In its original incarnation it was indeed called Mr Dale’s Diary in a direct reference to the Mrs Dale’s Diary radio serial.
I changed it to Iain Dale’s Diary when I was selected as a candidate in 2003.
327.wibbler, I know that you have one of the fastest keyboards, and a nose for spotting some interesting and relevant links. But flippin hell, posting the answer before I ask the question@331 is bl**dy good by even your standards today!!
:D
325.
Mike S = God Of Political Commentators.
RodCrosby = LOL!
333. Curious
I do believe that the LibDem leadership announced several changes of policy, some of which their relevant Parliamentary spokesmen hadn’t even know about.
Has Cameron done likewise?
331 - Christina, he got skewered on paying the coucil tax on Bute house.
318. Well if it’s riddled with errors, it’s hardly worth discussing at all, is it?
A great pity.
Bingo! Or am I too late? BBC filled up my Smearbot Bingo card today, between Marr and Politics Show.
IHT, Bullingdon, Hate the rich, Lisbon, Waffen SS, Fox Hunting….did I miss any?
333. A fairly poor attempt at trying to misrepresent the situation.
The media is trying to fabricate
1) some sort of impression that their is a division between Cameron and his party.
2) some sort of significant split in the Conservative party.
There is no evidence of either in fact the more the media and Labour wail about it the more united the party is becoming over the issue.
As for BBC bias. Just compare the interview with Brown last week with its one dodgy question which Labour skweemed and skweemed about (I agree it was not a jusitfied question) and the browbeating that Marr attempted today.
Basically, your comments are about as realistic as Marr’s (Brown’s?/ Campbell’s?/Mandelson’s?) questions.
333 Curious, we have an election by next spring. The polls have been consistent in saying that there will a change of Govt. So you might think that the Politics programme in the week of their final conference before that election might have been interested in a range of topics. What will the Tories cut? How will it affect unemployment? Can the debt really be brought under control? Can the NHS really be ring-fenced from cuts? And defence - what is the Tory position on Afghanistan: would they pull out and if so, in what circumstances? Has Cameron succeded in de-toxifying the brand? Is the party still Thatcherite? Or under Cameron is it believably One-Nation Tory?
Plenty of meat there, you might have thought. Instead? Manufactured “war” over Europe - and hunting. FFS….
327.LTL, I saw that bit, and it does look like a justified political hit to me. I caught the programme half way through Swinney discussing the possibility of the leadership debate taking place and being screened in Scotland minus Alex Salmond. I think that they are on a loser this time because they are now in power and Salmond is FM up here, and as such, they get a fair bit of media coverage that they maybe didn’t get when in opposition or when Salmond was in Westminster instead. My gut instinct is to say let them try it and make a big thing of it in amongst all the other political churning out there.
345. I’ve just realised they didn’t have time to get round to the ‘baby-eating’. Clearly their demoralisation is growing.
348 Farage said he’d get on the BBC’s case too and cited NN as an example of their bias against UKIP.
Perfectly reasonable complaint IMO.
346 - David Cameron stalls over Europe as split emerges with Boris Johnson
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6860600.ece#
Not as big as the split between Pickles and reality today I grant you.
347 The fox-hunting story was laughable - no one cares about this right now. The hunters are still doing it, the police aren’t interested in it and 99.99% of the population have better things to worry about.
207 Roger if you are still online, you are correct. Gordon Brown’s upbringing was one of modest privilege as opposed to aristocratic privilege. His parents never had to worry about feeding the family or paying the bills.
Indeed the social class Brown came from is exactly the same one which has produced many of Labour’s Peers and Cabinet Ministers over the past 100 years.
Within the Labour Party in Scotland, probably similar to Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire, left leaning clergy had major status. Brown’s father was like those of David Steel and Douglas/Wendy Alexander, close to Bishop/Archbishop status in England although I do not think Brown Snr ever achieved the top job Moderator of the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland (equivalent to Archbishop of Canterbury in terms of status but elected every year within the church and only serve 1 term of 1 year) unlike father Steel and father Alexander.
227 Election night will be interesting. When the Conservatives start picking up seats like Luton South, you’ll still be assuring us that we’re only a few points away from a hung Parliament.
282 As Goebbels said “Everyone knows *one* good Jew.”
There is still a widespread belief, both among journalists and Labour and Liberal Democrat politicians that the Conservatives are about to do what they want them to do - either by disintegrating over Europe - or by turning out to be europhile social democrats when they take office.
Have they ever considered that they may be wrong?
One thing we did learn today, I think it is crystal clear how the GE campaign will be fought, and I don’t think it will be on the grounds of what positive Labour has to offer!
227. Oh election night is going to be a party.
348 In any case how can they realistically stop all coverage of it in this day and age? Blank out sections of Newspapers, jam radio stations at Berwick, block the BBC website, prevent TV news reporters in Scotland referring to what Cameron/Clegg/Brown might have been doing all in the same place at the same time etc.
Where was the Pickles interview? Are there any clips of it online?
355. Labour is now fighting to keep itself above 200 seats and head off the risk of post-GE disintegration.
These attacks look desperate because that is exactly what they are - Labour (mostly) know floating voters will be repelled or at best bored by this stuff, but have already given up on that demographic…
354 - Point about old Rod Nazee is that his past performance on predictions is so lamentably, actually hilariously wrong. Titter ye not about Obama never becoming Presidents ‘cos of all those lawsuits that he wasn’t eligible. Or that Boris never stood a chance. Etc Etc.
Whisper it not, but I suspect “Jolly” Roger has a better track-record. Plus he’s so much more personally agreeable.
Hmmm. SNP prepared to go to court to prevent the voters of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath from seeing their candidate speak in a debate.
Sounds like a winner.
The last couple of years the media have been both bored and Conference weary by the time of the Conservative’s turn. They have been building up one of their classic narratives about Tory splits on Europe. It won’t fly if there are no legs to carry the stories on over the next week.
Take the Libdem Conference, the media didn’t see those splits coming, and the narrative took on a life of its on the back of plenty of evidence of disunity.
I suspect Tory high command have been a little bruised by the media this morning - however I’m quite pleased that in the face of manufactured stories about Europe that Cameron seems to have scored at worst a mediocre performance.
It looks clear that this conference is going to be about treating the Tories as if they’re HMG - not the Opposition.
I still can’t get over Sopel asking Milipede for an apology!!! Then again, I can’t believe he ever said it in the first place - our Foreign Sec stooping to this sort of Muckguire stuff is pathetic and demeaning.
361. A fair issue for the SNP to raise surely - the East Lothian question in reverse… Darling too if there’s a Chancellors QT also.
359 That I think is correct. And it’s probably the right strategy. It may just keep them above 200.
360. Rod is really just a more sophisticated (and nastier) version of Mark Senior. He has all the skills necessary to be a serious analyst but what we instead get is a version of what Churchill referred to as ‘the lights of perverted science’.
358 Politics Show - iplayer should have it shortly
362. The only splits I can imagine coming out of the Conservative Conference this year are:
The BBC Current affairs department being split from the rest of the BBC……
The Guardian split from its Government subsidy…..
And a large number of journos being split from their Government hosts hospitality in the pubs around Westminster…..
358 - Physically, Pickles was on the Politics Show.
Although he did seem to have left an important part of his brain somewhere, somewhere in a field in Hampshire
Greetings from the Tory conference fringe! I’m at media training course today and I’ve just met Donal Blaney and Tory Bear. Very exciting. Everyone is in good spirits. More later hopefully.
350 - Do UKIP have a leader at the moment???
Thanks Plato
369 - very good, I wonder how many others will get that reference?
359. The polls are telling a different story though.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hungornot.jpg
363 - What did Milliband say?
368 Can you imagine the hissy-fit meltdown that would generate!!!
You forgot to mention privatisation of C4
369 Tim thats about the third time you have said that possibly in a different format each time. Its terribly dull.
374 - But I thought your swing-back theory was entirely based on Parliamentary by-elections not opinion polls. So, aggregating them all since 2005, what should be the result next year?
376. Indeed it would be glorious to watch them chunter on about how bad things were!
369 Yeah - Whazza matter Tim has someone confiscated your scrapbook?
375 He didn’t see any reason to apologise as the Latvian Waffen SS [mentioned this 2 or 3 times when replying] did make him sick and that Pickles should have condemned them/not be associated with them.
Pickles said he’d be delighted if Milipede apologised but that since he wasn’t a vindictive man, he didn’t care if Milipede didn’t - classic response.
369 Sorted…
368.jsfl,
I had a cup of coffee in my hand when I read that, and a now very startled cat!
BBC Beyond Westminster now up on iPlayer
Fraser is on - As David Cameron puts his case to the Conservative party faithful and the electorate at the Conservative Party conference, Iain Martin asks what lies behind the Tory leadership. Is Cameron purposely fudging his beliefs in his bid to win the next election? And, if he wins, how will he marry his breed of ‘caring conservatism’ with cuts in public spending?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00mz3g9
Fraser’s views - http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5393108/signs-of-the-changing-political-landscape.thtml
381. For failing Labour politicians, I understand that it is a common symptom of their delusion and disillusionment to see ‘fascists and Nazis’ under every bed.
I only hope they get the treatment they so richly deserve……
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5393683/europe-issue-gets-the-tory-conference-underway.thtml
360. You know I never said he wouldn’t. I just flagged up the lawsuits, and rehearsed the arguments, and did the same for McCain, who had similar issues.
IIRC, a few people made tidy sums off my prediction, in the face of almost the entire media, that Obama was very likely to beat Clinton for the nomination.
Boris I was wrong on.
OK
You got me.
You can’t win em all.
O/T I did enjoy the article about Farage and slavery on LDV; it came straight after a piece about the Evil Conservatives, to which tabman gave a very measured response.
I see the sense of Labour pursuing a core vote strategy, but I don’t consider it to be sensible for the Lib Dems to do so at all. I just don’t see it impressing their supporters in places like the South West (some of whome are eurosceptics), or in the Home Counties (where some of them are basically soft Tories) - where it wouldn’t take much of vote shift to start losing seats to the Tories.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8289448.stm
Here’s a bit of the Eric/Milband thing
383. Well I hope that no damage has been caused. I’ll try to restrain myself in future.
;o)
385 Oh and Pickles also said that Attlee had offered Latvian SS members refuge in Britain after the war and that he suspected that Attlee had more idea about what they’d done than Miliband.
Ouch. Shame he wasn’t on form voice wise.
333: spot on, Curious.
Mike: yes, the E Mids figures are bad for Labour, the London figures are better, etc. But I think it’s hard to make a case from the marginals poll that the result will be better for the Conservatives than whatever UNS suggests - the slight edge for Labour incumbents and the large edge for LibDem incumbents suggests it’ll be less good than UNS would imply. As with the US scenarios where one tries to work out ways to win a majority by electoral vote success, it tends to be elusive - doing better than average in one region and worse in another generally evens out in seat terms as well.
I’m not being particularly defensive here - our speculation won’t change the result. But it’s clearly important for your seat spread betting recommendations, and on this data going with UNS seems as good a guess as any.
391-Did he also mention Millipede supports terrorism?
378. Why should I ignore opinion polls, when they support the theory?
Things are obviously moving in the right direction, and have been for over a year.
I’m not going to give another hostage to fortune, but I expect the result to be a lot closer than it is now. A hung parliament, with still a chance Labour could be largest party.
Ask me again after Glasgow NE.
388 Sean Fear. My reading of Clegg is he is far too smart to do that and that the anti Tory slant of his conference was in effect to buy him credibility with his activists, so when he goes after as Mr Smithson says the current wounded beast of British politics the Labour Party his flank as with Cameron and the EPP is already secured with his own activists in the really vital run in.
205 Don’t worry about the hunting bits chaps.
Only Labour die hards care and the hunts have lots of young people who get very angry, leave their safe Tory seats, drive en masse, and leaflet in Labour marginals.
Wonder which of these Millipede was especially proud of? My money is on the Wimpy bombs.
Bombings
Landmark events in MK’s military activity inside South Africa consisted of actions designed to intimidate the ruling power. In 1983, the Church Street bomb was detonated in Pretoria near the SA Air Force Headquarters, resulting in 19 fatalities and 217 persons injured, some of whom were military, and many were civilians. During the next 10 years, a series of bombings occurred in South Africa, conducted mainly by the military wing of the African National Congress. In the Amanzimtoti bomb on the Natal South Coast in 1985, five civilians were killed and 40 were injured when MK cadre Andrew Sibusiso Zondo detonated an explosive in a rubbish bin at a shopping centre. In a submission to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), the ANC stated that Zondo acted in anger at a recent SADF raid in Lesotho.[4]
A bomb was detonated in a bar on the Durban beach-front in 1986, killing three persons and injuring 69. Robert McBride received amnesty for this bombing which became known as the “Magoo’s Bar bombing”.
In 1987, an explosion outside a Johannesburg court killed three people and injured 10; a court in Newcastle had been attacked in a similar way the previous year, injuring 24. In 1987, a bomb exploded at a military command centre in Johannesburg, killing one person and injuring 68 military or civilian personnel.
The bombing campaign continued with attacks on a series of soft targets, including a bank in Roodepoort in 1988, in which four were killed and 18 injured. Also in 1988, in a bomb detonation outside a magistrate’s court killed three. At the Ellis Park rugby stadium in Johannesburg, a car bomb, killed two and injured 37. A multitude of bombs in “Wimpy Bar” fast food outlets and supermarkets occurred during the late 1980s, killing and wounding many people. In most of these events the victims were civilians, and of all races. Several other bombings occurred, with smaller numbers of casualties.
The TRC later found that in the case of the Durban beach front and Magoo’s Bar bombings, these acts constituted “gross violations of human rights”
The biggest illusion of the Miliband piece was when Miliband implied that Pickles wouldn’t be caught dead appearing in public with unworthy and disreputable politicians.
It’s not so as Conservatives by nature are inherently magnanimous politicians. After all, week after week they appear in the company of Labour politicians. I know it’s hard to believe that they do but they do. How I don’t know but somehow they pluck up the determination to do so….
If challenged on Europe, Conservatives need only say they will fullfil a manifesto promise that Labour reneged.
391. British governments from both sides of the aisle have a sorry history of supporting terrorists and brutal dictatorships when its helpful to western objectives.
361. Will the SNP be putting their legal advice on expenses this time, like they did for Tony Blair’s impeachment?
re 392. Nick - my argument had been that the UNS assumes a level of Tory progress in Scotland and against LD incumbents which wasn’t very likely.
The PH poll supports that but also points to large segments of target-rich England where the LAB>CON swing will be substantially greater.
The situation is much more complex and the PH poll helps us to map it better.
361, entirely predictable.
There are real practical issues of a series of debates. I don’t think Clegg should have equal billing.
400-In the fight agianst socialism all is allowed.
Online headlines, now:
Telegraph Lisbon Treaty vote puts pressure on Cameron
Guardian Cameron ducks EU vote question as Tory row looms
Times Cameron stalls over Europe as split emerges with Johnson
Ind Cameron faces backlash on Europe
Sky David Cameron Under Pressure Over Europe
Beeb Tories ‘to get Britain working’
from which i deduce first that the europe story is not going to go away and secondly that the bbc bias story is a bit more complicated than you might think (hint: which is the odd one out, and why?)
396 You are partially right Sally.
As an old labour diehard I believe very much that hunting for sport is wrong and had to suffer those people you mention in my patch at the last GE.Didn’t find them a very pleasant lot at all.
402. Until PH/Anthony Wells sort out the numerous errors in the study, debating its merits is as worthwhile as trying to pick up mercury with a fork….
390.jsfl, just to the floor, I saved the cat and myself.
288 What you are seeing is not balanced reporting. It is very aggressive, pre-meditated propaganda.
The BBC will held to account. The result will in its nature be a less biased, less Labour supporting organisation. Unbiased reporting is something we can all look forward to. It will lead to more reasoned and rational debate rather than emotional rabble rousing and distortion.
As it happens I thought Cammo looked a bit peaky yesterday as well - his appearance somehow looks a little different to a few short weeks ago.
406. Just a suggestion, valleyboy, but perhaps if you didn’t interfere in their lives they wouldn’t interfere in yours?
406 The urban foxes in a mile radius of me are all living happily and seemingly prosperously,as there’s plenty of fast fod cartons left by chavs,and there’s plenty of coppices/parks near me
394.
Oh dear you really are not well, will you at least try and get your medication sorted out !
Each week that goes by you seem to become more and more deluded!
your arguments are not based on fact or reality!
Now have a lie down old chap and keep those dreams private… I said keep em private!
I’ve just backed 2 outsiders in the Arc. Cavalrayman and Youmzain.
Out of the 10s of millions in the country, does anyone really care what RodCrosby ‘rehearses’, what he ‘ignores’ or who he ‘loathes’?
He comes across as self obsessed and self important.
*** BETTING CHALLENGE ***
I would like to offer RodCrosby the opportunity to take me on. His model suggests a modest Tory majority. Mine (VIPA), suggests a very large one.
Let’s split the difference. If the Tory majority is greater than 110, he gives £50 to a charity of my choice, if it is less than 110, it’s the other way round.
What do you think, Rod?
414. Calvaryman & Getaway are my two.
415 and frequently rude for no reason.
414 2nd and 3rd?
400 Yep. Everything is Britain’s fault.
We must not judge evil regimes but we have a responsibility to tidy up after them because it is Britain’s fault.
Yawn.
414. MM. Yes. But sadly my bets were on the nose.
Excellent, Sky are presenting an unbiased view of the Tory back to work proposals by interviewing Yvette Cooper
414. Calvaryman was my one ew at 12s. No matter how good the winner was, you just couldnt back at odds on
405. Constan
from which i deduce first that the europe story is not going to go away
Well unless they find some other senior Conservatives to continue ramping it, I don’t see how unless they are into repeating the same thing again.
What has seems to have happened is that after several attempts at ramping started by a specious piece in the Barclaygraph a Conhome poll came out indicating that its readers heavily supported some sort of referendum on /significant withdrawal of powers from the EU AND that an even larger majority were satisfied with David Cameron (a point that has clearly been deliberately and conveniently ignored by the media).
Then a couple of old dinosaurs of the failed Major era (one a gravy trainer) got the wind up over their precious Empire and started chuntering. The the Mayor of London confirmed he was of the view of the majority of Conservatives over the EU and then all sorts of hysterical assessments started appearing in the media and from the Conservatives opponents.
At the same time the confirmed Eurosceptic wing of the party has been saying very little about it other than they hope that Cameron will hold a referendum in future.
Now from what I can see unless there is some closet pro-European shadow cabinet minister who is going to ensure he is not a Minister in a future Conservative Government then I really don’t see what valid legs the story has left.
Now it may be that the left of centre media (Jon Craig most recently now talking about blazing rows) will continue ramping it but it really seems to be a dead story right now IMO.
412 Excellent.Only foxes I see around here ( in a very rural area) are dead ones on the road, supposedly mown down by traffic although I have my doubts.
414. Cavalryman E/W @ 12/1, Sea the Stars on the nose @ 5/4, and various bets on “to win by x lengths” still pending. Good result
Robert,
I think you are being FAR too generous.
As, in Rod’s model and opinion, a hung Parliament is far more likely than not, you should ask for at least 10/1 odds for that - and Rod should fall over himself to accept.
For evens, I’d suggest: Tory majority 40+, Robert wins; Hung Parliament, Rod wins, Tory majority 0-40, no bet.
Rod may well be able to get a lot better odds than 50/50 elsewhere, but bragging rights are rather important, no?
Or you could have it that:
Labour largest Party: Rod wins 4/1
Hung Parliament: Rod wins 2/1
Tory majority less than 20: Rod wins
Tory majority greater than 20, Robert wins
Tory majority greater than 60, Robert wins 2/1
Tory majority greater than 100, Robert wins 4/1
Fair to both sides?
416.
Robert, don’t be silly. You haven’t got a “model.” You’ve played around with numbers you don’t fully understand, and come up with palpable nonsense.
I don’t take money off suckers…
Robert. It’s a generous offer. Ladbrokes go 4/6 less than 100, 11/10 100+ majority.
Rod ought to bite your hand off.
409.But is that such a bad thing right now?
There are those on these threads who think that Cameron and the Conservatives have had an easy ride thus far, and that all that the media need to do is put them under the spotlight and all their prejudices will be proved right and the public will veer away back to the government in fright.
But we know that is not going to happen, Cameron was under the spotlight in the harshest sense of the word during that Conservative leadership campaign. He had to steer the party through the Brown bounce, and the very hostile media attacks when he went to Rwanda instead giving in to their almost hysterical demands he stay here. Then we had the grammargate story and the Brown’s attempts to destroy his leadership early on with the hype about an Autumn GE. Cameron stepped up to the platform and met the challenge head on, but Brown then bottled it instead.
We had the banking crisis and this recession unfold over the last year, expenses, the Lisbon Treaty and the EPP withdrawal. And now a media hungry for a Tory Europe splits story. All part of the job I am afraid, and one he should face head and deal with. And with the state of our economy and the tough decisions on public spending cuts and taxation awaiting if the Tories win the next GE. The media and public reception ain’t going to be easy at all.
The last four years have been a steep learning curve for Cameron and his team, and they have been improving and honing their political skills at every point of the way on the back of the much tougher media ride. Opposition and a hostile media should be an opportunity embraced, not something to whinge about on your way down the political ladder having never really experiencing it before.
Brown is the one that has now lost the media narrative and the political agenda, Cameron has not been handed a free pass either, and nor should he. And just maybe, if Brown had been given anything but the easiest of rides for so many years, even when those around him in his own government were not, Labour and this government wouldn’t be in their current mess. Blaming it all on Cameron having an easy ride in the media is ludicrous, and not a little bit pathetic in light of their own mistakes on this front.
428 Do you ever entertain the possibility that you may be wrong?
428 - “I don’t take money off suckers…”
Chortle.
RE SNP and tv debate
Television networks should invite their Westminster Leader Angus Robertson MP.
Otherwise in 2011 Holyrood election can we ask for a TV debate with Clegg instead of Tavish Scott, Cameron instead of Annabell, whoever instead of Ian Grey?
415 “Robert, don’t be silly. You haven’t got a “model.” You’ve played around with numbers you don’t fully understand, and come up with palpable nonsense.
I don’t take money off suckers…”
QED Mr Wasabi
401. I wouldn’t have thought so. Holding the Prime Minister to account over Iraq was clearly Parliamentaty business whereas trying to get the BBC to act impartially is party business.
Rod being his charming self I see. Robert offer seems extremely generous, this far out with Labour seeming to have hit rock bottom and for the Tories plenty of potential slip-ups (as the press are building his Europe issue) to at least cut into their lead.
“Why should I ignore opinion polls, when they support the theory?”
This could, amusingly, be read in a way that Rod wouldn’t intend……
431. I’ve been asked that question by lawyers in the witness box.
My usual answer is “Yes, I’ve thought long and hard about the facts ever since the date in question. All I can tell you that if there was any doubt in my mind - and I mean any doubt - I would not be standing here on oath telling you this today.”
Works a treat.
424 jsfl the trouble is that it is conference week and the lazy journo’s favourite template for any conference week, anywhere is “although the speeches from the platform are about x the hushed conversations in the bars and fringe events are all about y”; what with that, plus endless opportunities to raise the subject in interviews, the story can be kept on life support for as long as the media want.
Having said that, the bbc (of all people) have now moved on to something the tories do want to talk about (unemployment). If Osborne and Cam. give good performances that will kill the eurpoe story but if they don’t they could be in trouble. interesting week coming up.
Guido in good form today re 2 Ministers who are both lawyers(sorry cannot get a link):-
“Another Labour minister and QC thinks the laws are for other people. Harman was on the mobile when she crashed into a parked car without stopping to leave her details. Under the 1988 Road Traffic Act, any driver involved in a collision with another vehicle is required by law to stop and give their name and address, as well as details of the vehicle’s owner and the vehicle’s registration. Not exactly Chappaquidick Bridge, but that she drove off telling a witness ‘I’m Harriet Harman – you know where you can get me…’ is a little high-handed…
The other Labour minister and QC in legal difficulties is the Attorney General, Baroness Scotland. She is now accused of flouting the tax laws; she had no written contract of employment with Lolo, her illegally employed Tongan cleaner, there is firm evidence that no tax was paid for at least 10 weeks and Lolo wasn’t given any wage slips as required by employment protection laws.
Clear breaches of employment law which imply that for a period of time she was effectively paying Lolo cash in hand”
Guido in good form today re 2 Ministers who are both lawyer s(sorry cannot get a link):-
“Another Labour minister and QC thinks the laws are for other people. Harman was on the mobile when she crashed into a parked car without stopping to leave her details. Under the 1988 Road Traffic Act, any driver involved in a collision with another vehicle is required by law to stop and give their name and address, as well as details of the vehicle’s owner and the vehicle’s registration. Not exactly Chappaquidick Bridge, but that she drove off telling a witness ‘I’m Harriet Harman – you know where you can get me…’ is a little high-handed…
The other Labour minister and QC in legal difficulties is the Attorney General, Baroness Scotland. She is now accused of flouting the tax laws; she had no written contract of employment with Lolo, her illegally employed Tongan cleaner, there is firm evidence that no tax was paid for at least 10 weeks and Lolo wasn’t given any wage slips as required by employment protection laws.
Clear breaches of employment law which imply that for a period of time she was effectively paying Lolo cash in hand”
141 - Good selections.
I couldn’t touch it to be honest. As long as Sea The Stars won, the rest didn’t matter much to me.
I just told my four year old son, who was with us in York when he won there, to remember he had seen him. In 50 years time, when Sea The Stars is still being mentioned amongst racing fans he will be able to say that he saw him run. It’ll be a long time before another matched what he’s done, with the Breeders Cup possibly still to come.
As John Swinney has said, as a last resort, the SNP will take legal action to stop the broadcasting IN SCOTLAND of a leaders’ debate if Alex Salmond is excluded. They would have absolutely no alternative to doing that as anyone can see that this would set them at a severe disadvantage.
The disreputable attempts of Tory and Labour to stop SNP involvement is totally unjustifiable. The reality of the British electoral system is that we do NOT elect a Prime Minister so to argue that as Salmond cannot become Prime Minister (though frankly he would make a better UK Prime Minister than those on offer) he should not be involved is profoundly dishonest. It is also laughable to suggest that Clegg is a serious contender for the post.
Cameron has already shown himself in traditional Tory anti-Scottish stance by reportedly (Telegraph) saying that Salmond should not be involved in any way.
Recent attempts by Murphy and Gray to seek debates with Salmond are clear indication that they had been tipped off about Brown’s decision. The usual hypocrisy from Labour has followed with them descibing the possibility of legal action by the SNP as “sinister” in spite of their own successful legal challenge in 1995 to the much less important issue of a programme on John Major being broadcast in Scotland at tyhe time of local Scottish elections.
This is very amusing
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1218010/How-sexy-Susie-sprang-room-key-sting-amorous-Tories.html?ITO=1490
428 - “I don’t take money off suckers…”
I have a lot of sympathy for Rod Crosbys basic view, whilst I don’t agree with it, and think that he does have a tendency to give too much weight to factors which support his view and denigrate ones which don’t.
However, this type of comment, and general attitude does his arguments no good at all, and makes him sound arrogant.
Robert has put huge amounts of effort into his model, and the results, whilst unproven, do look reasonable, based on many factors. There are obviously issues with it, and nobody is claiming it is perfect, but it is a useful tool and Rods criticisms just come across to me as petty, which is such a shame given his obvious knowledge on the subject.
Europe - every time it gets mentioned Tories should mention Labour’s broken manifesto promise. If they keep hammering on that then the meedja will shut up.
Toffs - the wealth, gold-plated pensions and unelected power and influence of the BBC aristocracy is paid off the backs of a poll tax on the poor.
Latvia - wonder if any Labour MP is descended from Latvian c*mmunists who betrayed their own country to side with the invading soviet army, thereby inspiring the Latvians to see the later invasion by the Germans as a liberation and also a desire for revenge against traitors and collaborators?
Europe - every time it gets mentioned Tories should mention Labour’s broken manifesto promise. If they keep hammering on that then the meedja will shut up.
Toffs - the wealth, gold-plated pensions and unelected power and influence of the BBC aristocracy is paid off the backs of a poll tax on the poor.
Latvia - wonder if any Labour MP is descended from Latvian c*mmunists who betrayed their own country to side with the invading soviet army, thereby inspiring the Latvians to see the later invasion by the Germans as a liberation and also a desire for revenge against trait*rs and collaborators?
439. I appreciate the narrative but this has the flavour of the sort of ramping that they tried pre Labour conference about Brown’s position being under threat (amplified by the Ireland referendum) and it got nowhere. Unless there is something significant I still think it will die a death and end up as a footnote.
In particular I noted that Dan Hannan was doing the rounds today and was in fully supportive mode. Now if they cannot get people like him tied into the narrative I don’t see where it is going.
Already it seems the only people Sky can get to support the narrative are their own people and David Miliband.
Cameron needs to turn this media narrative to his advantage. First he needs to take Millibands spin about the The tories being isolated and remind people that what that really means is that the Tories look out for the British people, unlike Labour and the Lib Dems who are completely subservient to the undemocratic Euro elite. Secondly he has to endlessly repeat that if all countries ratify the Lisbon treaty (Constitution) then he will not let matters rest there.
Betting post:
URW 268/317 “If I had to have a bet I would boringly plump for the ‘Normal Expectation’ area between 175 and 224.”
Yes, I think that is absolutely correct. IMO a better bet than the Party Seats Line, currently Labour 201-202.
RodCrosby.428.
“Robert, don’t be silly. You haven’t got a “model.” You’ve played around with numbers you don’t fully understand, and come up with palpable nonsense. I don’t take money off suckers”
Robert’s has a model which many of us have seen. We may not all entirely agree with it but some of us think it provides a more reliable indicator of swing than the conventional models.
You however are arrogant and rude and when asked by me to explain your model a couple of months declined to do so.
428 I think he is suggesting Charity benefits in either case. Surely you agree that is a good thing.
443. Alex Salmond is not standing for the UK Parliament. He has no business representing the SNP in any Westminster debate. Angus Robertson on the other hand has a case as do those Parliamentary leaders of other significant parties that either have MP’s (PC) or who arguably stand a chance, however unlikely, of getting an MP (UKIP, Greens and unfortunately the BNP).
450 Rod Crosby is so keen to prove the notion of swingback and a hung parliament, I wouldn’t believe anything he said about his model. He might even be right in the end, none knows what events will occur, but his arrogance betrays a certain desperation.
Rod: I have a model. The model has been shown to all and sundry on Politicalbetting. There are issues with it - in particular with limited sample sizes.
But my model is available for all to examine and question. Yours… is… well… we don’t know. Because you’re supersecretive. I would give your views greater credence if you could show your model, or demonstrate it.
Now, as the bet is for charity, I don’t think there will be too much ‘taking money off suckers’. Come on: money where mouth is Rod.
443. Tom.
As stated upthread, can you explain the legal argument that supports denying the voters of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath the right to view their man in action?
453 - I have no doubt that whatever result we get, it will fit Rod’s model.
443 see 357. How will the SNP block everything without resorting to Chinese style censorship? If Labour are guilty of hypocrisy that is a sideshow. They could get away with it because who cared about watching that. A huge number will want to watch this including Scotland. The costs and benefits to the SNP of calling in lawyers is not clear cut I think.
456 I’m sure that that will be so.
445. “Robert has put huge amounts of effort into his model, and the results, whilst unproven, do look reasonable, based on many factors. There are obviously issues with it, and nobody is claiming it is perfect, but it is a useful tool and Rods criticisms just come across to me as petty, which is such a shame given his obvious knowledge on the subject.”
1. I don’t think he has put anything more than minimal effort into his simplistic “model.” He’s put a lot more effort into trying to market it, and/or the “Solver” engine he’s professionally connected with. I don’t think much of Solver, either, btw, but good luck with it, anyhow. That’s your business.
2. If you think its output is “reasonable”, I guess you never saw or really absorbed my detailed criticisms. VIPA purports to turn the operation of the electoral system upside down, based on the misuse of a handful of wacky numbers.
3. And its nothing to do with pettiness. It’s far more serious than that. I am genuinely concerned that the credulous may make crazy betting decisions based on VIPA. I’ll be blunt. Mike and Robert have a duty of care to people, and the concerted effort to push VIPA here is irresponsible, imho.
Sorry, but someone had to say it…
I wish, instead, they had flown it as a kite, and used the collective wisdom of this site [not just me] to point out its flaws, and refine it, before launching it on us to the sound of fanfare.
“If you think its output is “reasonable”, I guess you never saw or really absorbed my detailed criticisms.”
Wow. The arrogance is reaching frightening proportions.
462 - Just wait until he addresses the Reichstag later this evening. Poor Poland….
OT
Good afternoon sports fans! Here are this weeks NFL picks…
Last week 3 from 4.
The one I tipped that lost was the Cleveland Browns. The one I backed but failed to tip was the Cincinnati Bengals. This week they go head to head, and the Bengals are going to come out ahead once again.
The New Jersey Giants will destroy Kansas City.
The
Big JessiesDallas Cowgirls will fail to impress, giving the Broncos their 4th win of the season.This weeks upset will be provided by the Detroit Lions.
The Mighty Philadelphia Eagles are on a bye this week…
462. Indeed a legend in his own mirror……..
Cameron’s line on the referendum is as ridiculous as his empty politics:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocIuvi_QqXk
He doesn’t want to say what he would do if the treaty is ratified to avoid prejudicing decisions in Poland and the Czech Republic?
Surely by pronouncing he WOULD hold a referendum and WOULD campaign for a no vote, if the treaty is not ratified, is having the precise affect of prejudicing the decisions in Poland and the Czech Republic. Both countries now know if they don’t get this ratified before the next British election this treaty will fail to ever be passed. And the EU is piling the pressure on both these nations for precisely that reason. They do not want another referendum to be held ANYWHERE in Europe.
“They do not want another referendum to be held ANYWHERE in Europe.”
How noble.
So what was in the Czech letter, I wonder?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
‘For gawd’s sake don’t ratify’ perhaps. I think we should be told.
Go Fulham.. West Ham 1 Fulham 2 …Fulham down to 10 men…..
461 - “If you think its output is “reasonable”, I guess you never saw or really absorbed my detailed criticisms.
Sums it up really.
I have read your criticisms. It is possible to read something that you have written and not wholly agree with it you know.
“They do not want another referendum to be held ANYWHERE in Europe.”
I suppose we ought to be grateful that they allow us to elect our own MPs.
471
Hmmm obviously you’ll be attending this.
http://www.brugesgroup.com/events/index.live?article=14053
Should be a lively event.
The Gordon/Painkillers story reared up again this morning on two fronts.
Crispin Blunt said that Marr would not have raised it without knowing the answer in advance (or would have been completely out of order) and Boulton made a passing reference to the rather more controversial term ‘tranquilisers’ - slow burner this one and getting closer and closer to bubbling over.
458
Greece election night thread now up - please stay on this current thread for UK politics - many thanks.
Coldstone, if I’d been given the job of drafting the letter, I would have drafted it as follows:
“Dear Pres,
I understand that you are thinking about whether to ratify the Lisbon treaty. In order to assist you with that decision, you might find it helpful to have more details about the UK Conservative party’s position. As you may be aware, come next May, we’re going to have a majority of 5 squillion.
[Set out Tory position]
Hope that helps.
Love and kisses,
Dave”
Job done without seeming to interfere improperly.
Marquee Mark, Oracle, Plato Sally C.
I have to say, as a hunter, I thought that the BBC report was pretty fair-minded- the sheer pointlessness of the law shone through. Although they did have good old Doug Batchelor coming on saying that the public are “overwhelmingly against it” etc.- to which the response is that if the govt, any govt, always did what the ignorant public wanted on everey single issue we’d be in one hell of a mess. Anyway this particular sideshow is my sideshow and I thought the beeb were reasonably fair about it.
Sally C raises an important point regarding the potential campaigning manpower that the hunts can bring to the cause (which is huge and physically fit, unlike most activists of any party). I have been having a few problems getting some hunters out to canvass though as they loathe and distrust all politicians so much they don’t believe that the Cons will ultimately do the deed and revoke the ban. Of course this is totally self-defeating- the more they canvass the more reliant the cons are on them the more they are likely to wish to kep their favour.
Another minor issue that I have found myself is that when with a bunch of fresh faced, physically fit and enthusiastic hunters turn up to go canvassing and leafleting we often find that the local Cons faf around chatting to each other too much rather than getting out on to the streets. This particularly applies to the spotty Tory boys with whom arabella from the pony club with the blonde hair and the tight thighs doesn’t want to be seen dead with anyway.
466. Your line of thought seem utterly illogical. If the Czechs and Poles were that keen on ratifying they would do so (just as other nations have). It seems to me you are really complaining about that fact not about anything Cameron has or hasn’t done.
What the EU does or doesn’t want to happen is neither here or there really. The nations of Europe are supposed to be democratic and if Brussels doesn’t like it - tough they know where they can stick their Commission and Council and Parliament!
461. Well Rod you’ve managed to combine arrogance, condescension and cowardice nicely in this afternoon’s posts. Well done.
Haven’t had time to go through all the threads, so apologies if this link is already posted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/6257978/Ireland-has-voted-on-the-Lisbon-Treaty-now-let-Britain-do-the-same.html
For all the talk of the Telegraph being anti-Tory, this seems to me a very reasoned and pro-Tory piece. It acknowledges that Cameron’s first tasks will be fixing the financial mess left by Labour and rolling back the nanny state. But it makes the strong philosophical case that, for the sake of democracy in Europe, the UK must hold a referendum on Europe.
As a long-term tory, initially pro-Europe when it was a common market and now profoundly euro-sceptic now it is moving towards a French-model dirigiste, anti-democratic, technocrat federalism, I couldn’t agree more.
Looking at the media today, the BBC seem very soft on the Tories.
Why are they so biased when all the newspapers are leading on their idiocy over Europe
ConHom Tory Diary - Cameron faces tough questioning from Andrew Marr on Lisbon, that Bullingdon photograph and his personal wealth
“Inheritance tax pledge remains in force: Only millionaires will pay inheritance under Tory plans, Cameron reasserts, and that will be paid for by a tax on very rich people (non-doms).
The 50p tax rate: Mr Cameron says it probably will raise some money in the short-term and he cannot promise to repeal it.”
The Murdochs are “furious” at Labour’s attacks on The Sun
477 - I’m still taking bets on the Czechs and Poles ratifying if you are interested.
Have just watched Osborne on Sky and was impressed - no hesitation, looked serious [I gather he's been practising] and made sense.
Then watched Miliband.
I can’t believe he’s FS and playing these sort of smeary SS games.
Perhaps I’m old fashioned, but I always considered the role of FS to be one of integrity and maturity as the role is about how we’re seen by the rest of the world - Miliband sounds like a party hack.
It is incredible I know, but it’s increasingly clear that you have to engage with Rod Crosby on the assumption that he actually believes what he writes.
Every conspiracy theory, every manipulation of figuresto suit his world view, he believes it.
As to what you can say in response, well, amusement is best but abuse is likely to follow if you keep insisting on responding. Best to give one specfically detailed post and then one follow up blanket dismissal, otherwise you’ll get suckered in.
New thread - Rallings and Thrasher on the VIPA seat predictor
#457 Scott P
#459 Punter
I don’t doubt that the SNP will follow a negotiating dance with the broadcasters asking for total parity with Brown, Cameron and Clegg but I rather suspect that they might ultimately be prepared to accept as a minimum of one or more broadcasts IN SCOTLAND (i.e.shown only in Scotland) with Brown, Cameron and Clegg as the price for not blocking the UK wide broadcasts of the 3 UK party leaders.
If they are totally excluded from debates with Brown, Cameron and Clegg I believe that they will seek justifiable legal redress and take their case for doing so to the public in Scotland.
459. Punter - “How will the SNP block everything without resorting to Chinese style censorship?”
The SNP will not be blocking anything. If it happens, it’ll be the courts who do the blocking, and they will presumably only do so because the broadcasters have failed to take seriously their responsibilities to provide fair and balanced election coverage in Scotland, as was the case when similar court rulings were made in 1995 and 2000.
The ideal solution to this problem is not a block - it is for the broadcasters to face up to their responsibilities and ensure that the SNP and Plaid Cymru have fair representation in any leaders’ debates transmitted in Scotland and Wales respectively.
487. Now would that be the English Courts or the Scottish Courts?
I see a constitutional crisis on the horizon…..
;o)
466. The reason the Czechs and Poles have been able to get away with delaying ratification up until this point is because the EU needed to deal with the bigger problem of Ireland voting no. Now all that stands between the treaty being ratified are these two pesky nations you can be supremely confident of what’s going to happen next.
If you think the EU, and in particular larger nations like France and Germany, are going to let the Czechs and Poles stand in the way of their vision of the European project you are naive in the extreme.
And it’s precisely because the EU knows the Conservatives are very likely to form the next government, and their position on the treaty, that they will doing everything in their power to make sure the Poles and Czechs ratify muy pronto.
490 I got a feeling neither of them and specifically the Poles will be overly impressed by the Germans trying to lean on them considering their history.
Just been out all day haing seen Dave on Marr this morning.
This Europe thing definitely feels like a media story cos they’ve nothing else to say
Politics Show: Pickles’ atrocious performance made Milliband look like a star. Too much of this sort of thing and Labour will have a fighting chance of winning the elction, if they can tuck Gordon Brown under the blanket.
Cameron’s handling of the Marr interview was superb. Why? because when facing an attacking interview, you can only hope to avoid losing your cool and avoid giving the media killer line they can use repeatedly against you. You can’t win an attacking interview of this type, you can only not lose it. Cameron understands this, Brown does not.
Pickles also did reasonbaly well (although not as well as DC). Why? Because the aim of Milliband was to desperately paint tropies as extreme but Pickles kept moderate and very calm. Again no killer issue or line for the media to repeat.
Milliband is angry that Cameron has left the EPP to form the ECR.
Dan Hannan MEP described the situation like this -
By Daniel Hannan Politics Last updated: March 17th, 2009
33 Comments
José Manuel Barroso is cross because the Tories are leaving the Euro-fanatical European People’s Party.
Paul Waugh of the Evening Standard glosses the Commission President’s remarks as follows:
“Why is Cameron linking up with fringe parties, some members of which have strange views on climate change, homosexuality and race?”
Hmm. Let’s have a look at some of these “fringe parties”, shall we?
Here’s the Deputy Speaker of the Polish Sejm rejoicing in a court’s decision to deprive a lesbian mother of custody of her four-year-old daughter: “The court didn’t bow to pressure from the aggressive homosexual lobby, which came to make a scene as usual”.
Here’s a blatantly homophobic poster from last the Italian general election (”Daddy and Papa? This isn’t the family we want!”)
Here’s the first minister of Hesse calling for deportations: “We have too many criminal young foreigners… Germany has had a Christian and Western culture for centuries, and foreigners who don’t stick to our rules don’t belong here”.
(Even more blatant, incidentally, was that party’s slogan in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2000, when it campaigned against the proposed immigration of computer programmers from India with the slogan Kinder statt Inder: “Children rather than Indians”.)
And let’s not forget the Austrian party whose Secretary General recently called for the banning of burqas, adding: “If we allow consultations to be held in Turkish, we will one day become Turkish ourselves”.
What do you reckon? Acceptable partners for the modern Cameronian Conservatives?
Well, here’s the thing.
All these parties are currently in the EPP. They are, respectively, the Polish Civic Platform, Forza Italia, the German CDU and the Austrian People’s Party.
Milliband doesn’t give a fig about the facts. He wants a Nazi slur for Cameron. That’s all. In fact he’s the totalitarian - loving the organisation that grants him more power by the day…as close to a Nazi himself, as I’ve ever seen, no respect for the truth, only out to create hatred through propaganda, and destroy democracy in Britain and Europe for 1000 years.
Cameron is mirroring.
Brown was struggling last week. So Cameron matches his sincere and pained expression as much as he can.
But look at his eyes in the photograph. They are almost smiling.
491. As the Germans themselves only ratified the treaty towards the end of September, it would look a little hypocritical to immediately call on the remaining two to speed up their process. Decency requires a certain amount of time pass first.
489 jsfl
No constitutional crisis. The English courts won’t be involved as the SNP has no interest in limiting debate in England, simply that debate in Scotland is conducted fairly.
Scots Law incorporates the ECHR and, Scottish judges are required to take its provisions into account as opposed to the more limited Human Rights Act (easterross will correct me if I’ve got the legal aspect wrong in any respect).
443 Scott P
No one is trying to stop Kirkcaldy voters seeing the leader of the party that currently represents them - unless the leader of the second placed party is excluded from being seen.
Yawn.