The money goes on an earlier Brown exit
October 11th, 2009
The Brown “days as PM” index moves back ten days
With Gordon Brown having survived Labour’s June election disasters, Norwich North and the conference season the level of activity on the “when will he go” markets has been relatively light. The view was growing that he would lead Labour into the battle against Cameron’s conservatives.
That’s changed in the past 24 hours following the Number 10 statement about his eye problems. Could this, after all, be the pretext for him to step down early?
One key betting arena is the SportingIndex spread market on the total number of days Gordon Brown is in office in his current term as Prime Minister.
He’s already done 837 days and until news of his retina problems came out yesterday the spread was 995 - 1005 days - so the balance of the money was on about March 21st. The spread has now slipped back to 985 - 995 days so the mid-point is March 11th.
With this form of betting your winnings and losses are determined by multiplying the numbers of days that you are out by what actually happens. So should he leave office tomorrow a £10 unit sell bet would produce a profit of 985 minus 838 multiplied by £10. That equals £1,470. If you had taken the bet yesterday morning the profit in this scenario would have been £1,570.
If by any chance Brown remained in office until the last possible date for the general election, June 3rd, you would lose 1072 minus 985 multiplied by £10. That equals £930.
Given that the growing consensus is that general election day is May 6th the chances are that your maximum loss would be about £680. Whatever the market terms state that the last day will be June 3rd 2010.
I’ve become a seller because of the new uncertainty.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
The irony is that the story was announced for the purpose of calming down the speculation, and reassuring people that GB’s eye is not deteriorating. Typical of his leadership that the effect has been the exact opposite.
I thought this press release was to spike an article Iain Dale had done for the Mail?
http://twitter.com/iaindale/status/4764490508
1
“Typical of his leadership that the effect has been the exact opposite.”
The man does seem to have a gift
did not the former Soviet Union issue health bulletins about it’s leaders? Gordo stays!
Only a small ‘c’ on this site for the Conservative party, is it? (But a big fat capital ‘L’ for Labour). Curious.
4 - Perhaps they’ll release some definitive video evidence - Gordo playing tennis with BARAK *swoon*.
I wish someone would stop our comedy Foreign Minister making the country look silly.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/11/winston-churchill-conservatives-europe-allies
“that a party aspiring to government in Britain – the party of Winston Churchill no less – chooses allies like this.”
Erm.. Churchill was allied to Stalin. Stalin’s busy little beavers murdered all the millions that Trotsky and Lenin never had time to murder, including loads in Poland, so not entirely sure how this Kaminski bloke compares to that.
If only Grandad Miliband had driven over and squished Grandad Kaminski in his red army tank back in 1921 then the world would now be safe for comedy foreign ministers.
Bad news for Miliband2 as well as it looks like the global warming scam is starting to unravel. Just in the nick of time before Polly and the EUSSR make denying it a hanging offence. Phew.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8299079.stm
1 “The irony is that the story was announced for the purpose of calming down the speculation..”
I’m not so sure. Speculation was at its highest pre-conference and had pretty much disappeared since. IIRC this is the first formal announcement we have ever had regarding Brown’s health.
One explanation could be that it was thought that his attendance at hospital would be leaked; hence it was necessary to get ahead of the curve. There is an upside in that it reminds us that he is after all human (apparently). Alternatively, he’s trying to re-seize the media spotlight in hope of a sympathy vote, or it’s an orchestrated pre-cursor to him going on health grounds.
FF/Greens in cynical ‘new’ deal for power
- Fianna Fail caves in to the Green Party’s ‘pie in the sky’ programme
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ffgreens-in-cynical-new-deal-for-power-1910427.html
7…do the Brothers come as a pair?
Agree with Gadfly at 8, the three possible reasons for the retina press release could be:
1) Spiking a leak
2) Playing for sympathy
3) Preparing the exit
Unless there was an agreement that Brown would go if the polls hadn’t improved, and there’s no evidence any senior Labour politician has enough backbone for this, then it’s hard to see why now as the polls aren’t worse than they have been.
Odd time to play for sympathy as well - so 1) seems the most likely.
10. Umm
‘SNP will let English keep military bases’
Angus Robertson MP will tell the party conference in Inverness that the two newly separated nations would remain “friends and allies”, so it would be “perfectly possible” to “share basing, procurement and training facilities with the rest of the present UK”, even after Scotland had become a sovereign state.
The proposals appear to suggest that RAF bases, such as those at Leuchars and Lossiemouth, could be shared between Scottish and English fighter jets. It also opens up the idea of Scottish-based garrisons, such as Redford Barracks in Edinburgh and Fort George in Inverness, containing soldiers from both nations’ armies. It may also mean that 45 Commando Royal Marines may be retained at its Arbroath base.
The plans were described as “complete fantasy” last night by Labour, which said the British government would have little desire to invest in a post-independent Scotland. The Conservatives claimed Robertson’s plans had exposed how an independent Scotland would be entirely dependent on English co-operation for survival.
Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy last night unveiled Labour’s election campaign theme, which will claim that a vote for the SNP helps to install the Conservatives at Westminster. He said: “Labour’s campaign – Vote SNP, Get Tory – will put this issue centre stage between now and the general election.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/SNP-will-let-English-keep.5722650.jp
The next UK GE starts to take shape, and it is starting to look like every other UK GE. Scottish Labour are the boy who cried “Wolf!” once too often.
I note that the Tories are falling back on their standard “we are entirely dependent on the English” line. You guys claimed that you were going to stop all that nonsense. Plus ça change…
Jim Murphy, the Labour Scottish secretary, said that the SNP had made “a disastrous mistake” which would cost it support. “This is a betrayal of Scotland,” he said.
“Cameron’s Tory party is committed to an attack on public sector workers’ pay and pensions and they want to rob hard-working Scots in their fifties of hard-earned pensions. Scotland will never forgive the SNP for trying to put the Tories back in power.”
David Mundell, the Tory shadow Scottish secretary, accused the SNP of “living in cloud cuckoo land”. “Westminster doesn’t do hung parliaments…”
Mundell confirmed that electing a Tory government would mean budget cuts would be imposed in Scotland.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6869591.ece
11. Interestingly, whereas it may never have been the intention to prepare the exit, if it becomes perceived in that way, it could prove impossible to re-bottle that particular genie.
Sorry. Didn’t appreciate that the thread had moved on to Scotland.
16. All roads lead to Scotland Gadfly. Didn’t you know that?
Even the Irish are taking an interest in Scottish affairs:
‘Bertie Ahern: Independence would bring years of debt’
Ahern said he believed Scotland was working well with a devolved government while remaining part of the UK.
“I have been with Alex Salmond around your parliament earlier this year and I do think that the whole effort that’s gone into building up Scotland is second to none,” he said. “I think your close-knit community is a huge factor, your great history and culture — you can be very proud of what you’ve achieved.”
Meanwhile, a leading economist has published a new study that suggests Scotland would thrive if it was financially independent of London. Ronald MacDonald, a professor of economics at Glasgow University, said the union with England had hindered Scotland’s economic performance.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6869549.ece
14. “Westminster doesn’t do hung parliaments…” is a peculiar statement even by Mundell’s standards. It’s a bit like saying “we don’t do January” or “we don’t do fog”. By the law of averages, a hung parliament is inevitable at some point even under first-past-the-post - saying he doesn’t like the idea much won’t make it go away.
Gadfly, did you know that the topic of this thread - James Gordon Brown MP - is a Scot? He revels in the title “Son of the Manse”. A ‘manse’ is kind of like a vicarage, if you didn’t know.
You’ll get rid of us Scottish pests when we stop sending MPs to the wee pretendy parliament on the Thames.
Errr Stuart… It was meant as humour. Patently don’t have that up there. I blame the midges.
18 “By the law of averages, a hung parliament is inevitable at some point even under first-past-the-post - saying he doesn’t like the idea much won’t make it go away.”
There is no law of averages and a hung parliament is not inevitable - ever.
20. I realise that. My reply was trying to be light-hearted too, but I clearly failed.
Looks like you really DO have to use emoticons, or else people mis-interpret your mood.
No-one said that a Hung Parliament was “inevitable”, but Mundell is trying to make out that it is impossible.
The true likelihood lies in-between those two extremes. Punters must make a judgement as to where on the axis the likelihood lies.
William Hill - Next General Election Result
Conservative Majority 2/7
No Overall 11/4
Labour Majority 14/1
So, clearly punters think that a CON MAJ is more likely than a Hung Parliament, but the demolition derby has not reached the finishing line just yet.
If James Brown exits the stage, these odds will change rapidly.
22. Unfortunately emoticons no longer work around here. You can type them and send them, but they don’t arrive. In the pre-smiley olden days we used to use the letter g surrounded by a couple of pointy brackets to flag ‘tongue in cheek’ remarks.
I shall test it now, and it it works I then propose that memebers of this estwhile community adopt it.
Stuart is a Unionist .
Damn. Even that doesn’t work!
21. “There is no law of averages and a hung parliament is not inevitable - ever.”
In the real world, you’d have a hard time justifying that statement unless the Lib Dems and other ‘minor parties’ suddenly disappeared off the face of the earth. If a hung parliament happened no fewer than three times between 1974 and 1997 when the Liberals/Lib Dems were much weaker, I think we can safely assume another will be around sooner or later - and quite possibly next year.
The last date for the election is 3rd June, but if he lost he would go to the Palace and resign the next day (on 4th June).
28. Always assuming the results are in by then!
27: “If a hung parliament happened no fewer than three times between 1974 and 1997 ”
Actually, it was twice not thrice. And because something has happened before, it does not make it inevitable, either then or in the future.
And there is no ‘law of averages’.
Iain Macwhirter at Manchester: ‘The Tories smarten up’
The women are more attractive. I know it sounds facile and sexist to judge a party on the appearance of its female camp followers, but believe me it is the first thing you notice.
Now the Tories are socially acceptable again, even eligible.
I recalled the days I used to attend Tory Conferences under Margaret Thatcher. Then the Tories exuded power like a pungent pheromone. They knew who they were: the most electorally successful party in Europe. The party of government; inheritors of The Great Tradition: Pitt, Disaeli, Churchill, Thatcher. Tories were bred for government and expected it as their birthright.
A little of that arrogance is back, but not much.
… the Tories promise to increase drink prices… The SNP claimed a Tory own goal since the Scottish Tories have opposed minimum pricing in Scotland
The Scottish Tories are undoubtedly the weakest link in the new Tory chain. There was precious little glamour at their fringe event. The shadow Scottish secretary, David Mandell, or “ Man dull “ as he is known by his detractors, was on exceptional form - literally boring for Britain.
They desperately need something to talk about in this election other than the the West Lothian Question, the Union and Alex Salmond’s perfidy. Then the Scottish parliamentary leader, Annabel Goldie, took the stand, dressed in a lumberjack shirt and trousers. Had she decided to express sartorial solidarity with the proletariat? Had she just come from the first ever gay pride reception at a Tory Conference? No - she had been roped into one of the ‘community initiatives’ that are obligatory for the modern Tories to show they are street smart and down with the people.
Annabel is a great character, but she doesn’t make up for the lack of a proper party in Scotland.
The failure of the Scottish Tories is all the stranger when you realise that many of the brightest Tories in the UK party are Scots. At one of the best fringe events I attended, at the think tank the Centre for Policy Studies, Fraser Nelson, Scottish editor of the Spectator and the former Scotsman editor, Iain Martin did a very good job of popularising the arguments of another Scot Professor Niall Ferguson about the economic crisis.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/iain-macwhirter/the-tories-smarten-up-1.925316
I wake up to find another Gordon delaying tactic (expenses) is another own goal.
Any talk of Gordon going must surely be fanciful: the Labour Party appointed him to destroy them: his strategy is working well.
Gordon will write his memoirs revealing he has been a closet Tory since 2007….
Brown would rather people talked about his dodgy eyesight than his dodgy mental health.
It was interesting when Marr asked that apparently evil question - sounded more like he was asking about his eyesight and lo and behold it allowed Brown to bang on about his difficult childhood and how superhuman he has been all these years.
Anything to keep the real information from the proles.
On Betfair, the odds on Brown stayin’ or goin’ are still pretty much the same as before the Conventions:
– staying : 66%
– going : 33%
33 sounded more like he was asking about his eyesight
Eh? Surely Marr asked him whether he was taking any prescription medicines, i.e. it had nothing to do with his eyesight. It was Brown who chose to go off at a tangent onto the the subject of his eyesight, after his initial “No” unconvincing one word reply to the question.
That said, like most others, I don’t believe the question should ever have been asked.
I suspect the tears in the retina story was rushed out in a lame attempt to diminish anger at his dodgy expenses. It’s the victim ploy (again). The BBC have been running a ‘poor Gordon’ theme for ages. What about that Radio 5 debate on ‘do you feel sorry for Gordon?’ IMO this is just one more sign that Brown intends to hang on - not to depart.
Unlike OGH, I’m not keen on Sporting’s “Brown and Out” market. The fact that Downing Street emphatically denied that there had been any deterioration in Brown’s eyesight suggests that he is hell-bent on remaining in office until the GE. Had he wished to provide an escape route, the statement would surely have been worded slightly differently, along the lines that his sight remained unchanged, but that he would continue to have regular checks, etc, etc.
Somewhat bizarrely, I discovered through a chat with my neighbour yesterday, that he does feel sorry for Gordon, and is inclined to support him because of this. The old Brits and underdogs thing I suppose.
‘£3bn Boy Blunder’
- He can count on his fingers… but would-be Chancellor’s pension plan doesn’t add up
… Mr Barrell said the figures only worked if the retirement age was raised by a year for women as well.
A men-only scheme meant Mr Osborne had got his sums wrong by £3billion.
And the savings the top Tory had boasted of making could not happen until at least 2023.
http://www.people.co.uk/news/tm_headline=pound-3bn-boy-blunder%26method=full%26objectid=21738150%26siteid=93463-name_page.html
38. They are playing the ‘underdog’ line for all it’s worth. How many times was the word using in the media during the Labour conference? Truly bizarre after 12 years in power.
He won’t be missed anyway… How can he be ? he always locked away like the elephant man ! And when he isn’t he really Is the elephant in the room !
think this is a new poll??
con 43
lab 29
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1219573/Cameron-right-say-voters-Labour-failed-poor-Mail-On-Sunday-survey-shows-clear-triumph-Tories-battle-conferences.html
Did Miliband really say “Govts in US, Delhi and Beijjing…”?
Can’t think of any massacres for which Govts in Beijjing have been responsible and refused to apologise…
42. good spot!
Can anyone explain why Alan Johnson remains the clear favourite to succeed Brown at such short odds of around 6/4, although 3/1 is available for small money with Betfair?
His one big chance was to have been parachuted in during the Summer as caretaker. His time has now so clearly passed.
Were Brown to leave office either before or after the General Election, one thing is sure - there would be no second coronation after what resulted last time. I very much doubt Johnson would even be a candidate, he’s already said several times that he doesn’t want the job and is not up to it.
Personally I wouldn’t consider backing him at less than 12s or 15s. It’s a pity that Sporting have taken down their “Next Permanent Labour Leader”, where it was recently possible to lay him at effective odds of 0.47/1, i.e. by selling him at 8 points on their 25 point index.
Skynews - Boulton says Hilary Clinton will also meet David Cameron. Milliband will be pleased.
38 Its been a recurring theme since the election that wasn’t, I recall Snowflake saying that Gordon’s vulnerability when he was bested at PMQs would work to his advantage, followed up by regular appearances in press of “Cameron’s bullying” in his sparring with Gordon (almost as if someone had seeded the post PMQ discussions between sketch writers and members of the Lobby with the thought - McBride?). Serious man being taunted by clever Etonian.
It’s why McBride affair so damaged Gordon, exposing him as at the centre of a culture of bullying.
PfP,
I’m not familiar at all with Sporting and spread betting markets. But I will study it and bet on them from November.
One question for now: does Sporting specify when a particular market will be taken down? If not, is it not scary to lay or back options on a market that can be closed at any indeterminate time?
I for one would not make many bets I’m waging on Betfair If I taught that maybe one market will be close or taken down. For instance, I had 2K Canadian Dollars running at 1.65 in average on Tory.Overall.Majority; I laid all of it @1.4 before the Irish Ref in order to invest more capital on the YES and on Merkel.
So what happen with your actual capital on a Sporting market that’s been taken down?
OT - this story re European working directives for Doctors won’t help the EU cause much.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/133359/-Cut-in-doctors-hours-costs-lives-
42 Isn’t this part and parcel of the same BPIX poll issued on Friday?
Incidentally a dreadful headline figure for the LibDems at only 16%, a new low for the recent past. Extraordinary that experienced punters on here (no names!) really think they are going to come out of the next GE with a net increase in seats. God bless ‘em as they are holding up the odds for people like me who are selling at 50 seats or below.
Peter from Putney @45: “one thing is sure - there would be no second coronation”
Not sure that’s certain - how feasible would it be logistically for Labour to arrange an election in the time they’ve got left? In any case if Gordon stands down and doesn’t volunteer to hang around as a lame duck waiting for an election, the cabinet (”in consultation with the NEC”) get to pick who’s going to be leader until a party ballot could be held; Even if they did call a party ballot before the general election, it’s easy to see it turning into a near-unanimous vote of confidence for whoever they’d picked as caretaker.
46 - Is Nick Clegg going to jump up and down because he thinks he is important too?
45 - Not sure i agree. A change closer to an election makes a coronation more likely. Nobody (apart from within Labour) particularly cares how the Labour Party choose their leader - the complaints about Brown follow from the fact that he has then had 3 years governing us.
Any change of leader now would be followed almost immediately by the General public being given an opportunity to legitimise the leadership or otherwise. And if Labour lost they would probably have a leadership election straight afterwards.
42 Not very different from post Conference YouGov (as you would expect with BPIX using YouGov) - did notice that IHT cut has strong support, perhaps Labour & Lib Dems should stop highlighting this popular Tory policy?
54 - It isn’t popular with their own activists so it is a means of keeping some morale going.
John Major was the underdog of his day, much good that it did him.
Brown constantly tells about his having to make ‘difficult decisions’ as if making a plea to our hearts.
I have no doubt that such decisions are difficult but I’ve never known any other PM go on about them so much.
47. Very true. The more the truth about Brown’s history of bullying and back room smear campaigns is exposed the better. The man has spent his political life briefing against colleagues.
48 I totally agree Philippe - once a spread-better offers a market, it should have the cullions to maintain it until maturity or at least until a pre-arranged time and date for its suspension has been reached. Of course temporary suspensions are understandable, for example when the announcement of polling results is imminent.
In the good old days, the marketing blurb from such firms as Sporting and IG Index was that “We never close”, i.e. that it was possible to trade one’s bets 24/7. Sadly this is no longer the case. I’m not sure this augurs well for Election night, if we are going to have any number of suspensions, whilst the likes of Sporting decides which way to move its spread prices. I thought it had big clever computers to do this for them.
56. John Major’s early life was massively more difficult than Gordon Brown’s. Major really did have to overcome a disadvantaged background to get to the top. Brown did not.
Richard Nabavi and Peter from Putney et al.
My cobbled strategy has been to Back the Tories to the nth degree including Selling LAB Seats on the LINE at 203.0 and at the same time building up a war chest against the possibility of Brown departing.
RN-I think there has been a fair punt on ‘Cameron Only’ in the Party Leaders market.On Oct 1st. I took 3.60 Cameron Only and now you could easily Lay 3.05 but maybe do better.
Watch out for the Labour Likely by spotting who gets the most insulted on pb.com.
Hattie would have been favourite by now but her driving has let her down.
59 Agreed. And I also believe that he made better ‘difficult’ decisions, that put the country at heart as opposed to his personal political future.
Morning All,
Well back to normal. Brown in another unwanted headline story. MPs expenses on the front pages again. The Big Banana is smearing the Conservatives and no doubt annoying our allies when he should be praising she who must be obeyed. Of course the polls are back where Gordon doesn’t want them in Conservative Landslide territory.
It’s comforting to know some things don’t change.
By the way has anyone got a peak of the Sunday Express photoshop job about Brown’s ‘Bull
ingdonying’ Club yet. I couldn’t see it on their site.Where’s Tim or Coldstone? They’re good a sniffing these things out.
;o)
60, I still hope Hatemen gets it. I’d win £50! My biggest ever win by a long way.
Ah yes. The dream of winning paper money lives on
I used to be a big Betfair fan but now I hardly use it..
The site is user unfriendly and its markets are boring. There is generally very little liquidity on political markets that I simply can’t be arsed. The benefit of being able to close down a position requires bets to be available
62, Milipede’s smearing is especially ironic because he’s pissed off the Latvians, the Indians and I’m sure anyone else foreign he’s ever met. The idea Hague would be a worse FS or that the Tory position in Europe is damaging us internationally after Labour led us into Iraq based on a false pretext is laughable.
65, oh, just thought of this as well: could Milipede be playing to the Labour gallery with hopes of bolstering his leadership chances?
35 -
just watched it again and you’re probably right. Deliberately vague though - he could have meant anything. Perhaps Brown had a particularly embarrassing problem of in-growing toe-nails?
Hardly an inappropriate question when it gave Brown the excuse to talk about his eyesight for a couple of minutes. And Marr knew that.
48, 58 - We have had a week without the SPIN next Labour leader market. This is irksome.
66 - Without a doubt. Most ministers will be working through the prism of the post defeat leadership contest. The only exception I would say would be Darling.
59 Major really did have to overcome a disadvantaged background to get to the top.
Would that be the Big Top?
I’ll get me coat….
As soon as heard this I thought “there’s the exit door”. The fact that Brown’s eyesight is poor and deteriorating is not in dispute (except by Brown on the Marr show!)
Confirmation that his good eye is also in trouble gives Brown a nice easy health ground to retire on. And with the Tories poll lead only saved by Cameron’s I have a dream speech - and he can’t give those every day, there is still all to play for
65 It does seem rather curious behaviour in a Foreign Secretary.
Re Brown. It is the mark of the bully to always feel sorry for themselves. Whatever happened to his agreeing that he was the Heathcliff of British politics? We had Mr Bean, and Stalin before that. Surely he should have been the Penguin from Batman all along.
“And with the Tories poll lead only saved by Cameron’s I have a dream speech - and he can’t give those every day, there is still all to play for.”
The Conservatives have another trump card. Namely, Labour’s record.
URW, I went on the “GE Leaders” market this morning, and saw that you can actually lay ‘Cameron Only’ at 3.
PfP : Too bad that’s no longer the case….
So when do you think Sporting will reopen their “Next Permanent Labour Leader”? Can it take days, or even weeks?
64 MS. If Betfair seems boring it’s because it is mainly ME…and I am very boring !
The truth is that I am so RED on so many issues that I am endangering my ‘tank’.
For example, if Ming Campbell made a comeback and LAB win an Overall then I will have to do a runner.
The only vibrant markets are ‘Most Seats’ and ‘Overall Majority’ and I am so RED on that one, if Labour do it, that it is hard to go much deeper.
There is no way I am going to hedge, even at current levels (15.0-17.0)
61 Ironic that the “difficult decisions” are what Brown can never actually face up to making, until the last moment when he’s lost momentum and whatever he decides simply seems to damage him even more. If he was the Great Helmsman he’d be miles off course and still dithering over which rocks or sandbanks to avoid.
I think the retinal tears story is a ploy to attract sympathy votes. Brown is unscrupulous and will exploit everything he believes will reinforce his position, including sob stories about his own health. But as usual this will rebound on him.
72 Funniest quote I read in the Sunday’s is in Martin Ivens column in the Sunday Times:
“If David Miliband were leader, Cameron would be finished,” snarls a Labour dissident
70. Lol
71. Ian - the ICM poll was taken over Wednesday and Thursday, so a lot of the respondents were reacting to Osborne rather than Cameron’s speech.
74 - Labour’s past did’t seem to frighten punters as much as the Tories future. Easy to say “I’m voting Tory” as a protest when the Tories have no policies. Now they do for some reason all the people who’d have to take the pain seemed less inclined to vote for the people who won’t have any pain at all.
Expect Labour to play very heavily on the choice bits of Osbornes speech. “We’re all in this together” remember - well apart from him and Dave and the bankers.
78, dissident = Milipede, methinks. That, or someone tired and emotional, and probably thick as well.
65. MD - “Milipede’s smearing is especially ironic because he’s pissed off the Latvians, the Indians and I’m sure anyone else foreign he’s ever met.”
The Norwegians were mighty pissed off with Labour when Jim Murphy started his “Arc of Bankruptcy” campaign.
Morning all and I see my friend Stuart is on good form. Clearly he is getting excited about the substitute whisky olympics taking place in the next week in Inverness. (The real whisky olympics is of course the royal National Mod when the gaelic world comes together and in beautiful song, word and verse bewails every ill visited upon the Gaels in the past 1000 years).
Millibland just looks like an ass. Soldiers are dying in Afghanistan and he can only talk about the Tory allies in the European Parliament. What did his grand daddy do in the war?
As for Ian Macwhirter the so called Scottish political commentator, he belongs to the Professor John Curtice school of independently minded political commentators. Neither has a script which says Scots Tories make progress. If we were to win 15 seats in Scotland at the GE the first thing both would say is that the Tories are making no headway in Scotland because they failed to win 44 seats.
Off to watch Marr and Boulton then out to lunch so TTFN
4. Yes once we start hearing Brown has a ‘head cold’ and the Beeb starts playing solemn music it’ll be time to sell aggressively…
Actually, it was “Arc of Insolvency”, wasn’t it?
68 antifrank - Yep and I somehow doubt we will see its re-appearance. Crazy really as spread-betting firms were always supposed to make their money from their spread on a two way market. By preventing punters from closing their positions, they are effectively foregoing half their potential profit by closing off one half of the spread.
In my opinion, spread-betting no longer has anything like the level of appeal it had in its early days, 12-15 years ago, when there were more players. It needs a Ladbrokes or similar to enter this market and give it a really good shake-up. Come to think of it, haven’t Ladbrokes just announced a large rights issue? Hmm….
79 - I’m treating IC s a rogue for the moment. The trend was 42/28. You can’t have 45/26 from an earlier period and them al be right. And certainty to vote is a red herring as it biases the thing heavily to the Tories - we know they’ll vote. How this thing plays out is how Labour’s vote chooses to act or not act, and where the large pool of floaters eventually fall. The conference polls showed that there are a lot of punters still to make up their minds - a poll which excludes them completely makes no sense.
Mike,
I don’t agree that Betfair is “user unfriendly”; I love for instance that one can back and lay as much as one wants without paying any transaction fees. And the interface is pretty good and efficient. As well as the software you can download on your mobile phone.
BTW, there was enough liquidity to make good money on the Irish Ref. (albeit I made lots of stupid move!), and on the German Elections. And if the Vote Percentage market or the Coalitions market were not very liquid, it was quite easy to back more and lay your positions.
I’m looking for the best to make a killing on the next UK GE.
But I don’t know yet where to upload all the money I’ll download from Intrade in November.
80 - They can’t win. If they all take large pay cuts then Labour say “well it’s all right for them, they can afford it”. If they don’t then they are exhibiting double standards.
87. What an amusing confection of non-sequiturs and straw-grasping.
I suspect that a Dark Lord advised Brown to go public regarding the eyesight business.
“You know it makes sense Gordon. If the public get wind of your hospital visits they will assume the worse. Far better that you come clean and demonstrate some candidness that will serve to knock Cameron off the headlines and endear the electorate towards you. Trust me Gordon, just do it Gordon (hee hee hee hee)”
86.
So, is “15″ the number that you think of in your wildest dreams Mark?
You set the bar rather low don’t you? Aspire for the stars Mark.
91, poor Brown. He’s like Theoden[sp] being manipulated by Grima Wormtongue
87. That’s funny - I’m treating Thursday’s YouGov tracker as a rogue. All other polling suggests Osborne’s plans were (on balance) received favourably. Look at the detail in the BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday.
80 Labour’s past is why Labour are 14-19% behind, even after the Conservatives have announced specific spending cuts.
78 I think what he meant to say was that “if David Miliband were Leader, Cameron would be delighted.”
BBC reporting it is ‘highly likely’ the PM will have to repay some of his expenses.
Diversionary press release it was then.
But didn;t Gordon say there was absolutely no question over his expenses? Didn;t he tell Boulton people were angry with ‘other MPs, not me’
45. PfP. Whilst it isnt worth betting on Postie Alan at those odds the bookies are simply covering previous weight of money and reflecting news.
There are two things that put him in a good position in theory.
1. Its clear he had a base within the PLP. I have few doubts talk earlier this year of Brown being under big pressure and Johnson being promoted as the man to replace him wasnt without foundation.
2. Despite the public polls which have been negative for nearly every alternative at various times within the wider party he also has a support base.
The question is, who should be the favorites? Do we look to Harman?
I think Labour would take a serious stuffing with her in the big office but Labour’s internal politics may well triumph over anything external.
Straw? Caretaker, but too much desire I suspect to look to another person.
I believe you had a punt on Johnson at bigger odds a while back like myself?
The eye story has long been mooted as a figleaf for Brown’s exit and its hard to know whether this story was about to be got by a newspaper due to a leak from within Labour or just plain old journalistic work.
If its just news then it’ll pass. If its due to a leak its clear someone high up is looking to turn the screw on Brown which suggests more pressure to push him out to come.
BBC line seems to be that the government gets “grief” over expenses even when Tories are culpable. More boo hoo for Gordon. They’ll be reading the news with hankies at the ready at this rate.
98, I notice that. Liberal use of the words ‘even though’ followed by an attack on the Tories or defence of Labour, and the fact Cameron volunteered to pay the cash back was omitted.
98 indeed, but when you host a party and give away free heroin and crack, you can be as harsh as you like on the junkies but ultimately someone organised the party and needs to be held to account.
Mike first you are taking tips from George Galloway seriously then the Sunday Express! Who next, Nostradamus?
101. Better than, we have Rogerdamus
77. I very much doubt that it will gather him sympathy except amongst those who already would be inclined to vote for him.
64 Mike - For some reason, political betting has never taken off on betfair, probably because it has never been promoted - perhaps we will see a sea change with the approaching GE.
There’s no denying that betfair has become a major player in Sports betting generally. Try looking at the amounts traded in an important football or especially the last minute or two before a big horse race and it’s amazing with thousands of pounds being traded every SECOND!
The biggest problem of all is that they have a near monopoly in exchange betting. As is the case with spread-betting, it needs some Ladbrokes-style competition to liven things up.
97 Straw, I think, could lead Labour to a less severe than Brown. Miliband and Harman would probably do worse than Brown.
87. I’m treating IC s a rogue for the moment. The trend was 42/28.
Well of course you would and perhaps it is but I think you are kidding yourself.
IIRC the last five polls have given the Conservatives vote shares of 44,42,42,45,43 so the range is 42-45. Furthermore, the ICM poll includes likelihood to vote filtering whereas the rest (all Yougov based I believe) don’t.
Consequently, what that suggests to me is that Labour voters just aren’t as committed to going to the voting booths which of course has been a regularly repeated theory for a long time and under the circumstances of Labour’s dismal performance and resultant position is hardly surprising.
The likely vote share is between 43 perhaps 44 IMO and that gives the Conservatives a landslide and Labour a ticket to the political hinterlands.
Jane Moore reviewing the papers on Marr just mentioned ‘there was also a rumour Brown might be getting a letter tomorrow’ - the eye story is cover (albeit truthful) for Brown’s expenses probity imploding.
Another group deserts Labour
re 88. Betfair’s site is rubbish and whenever I go into to try to place a bet there’s hardly ever any liquidity.
To get into a political market it takes maybe nine or ten separate clicks and then, as the with Glasgow NE by election you discover that there are hardly any serious bets possible and the grand sum of just £115 has been traded.
And have you ever tried using its so called mobile service. My phone is said to be compatible and it simply won’t let me log on.
Betfair is rubbish. Give me betting against Shadsy or William Hill any day.
On the
Robert Harries: Cameron not getting the poll leads that Blair had over Major.
110 forgetting to mention that Cameron doesn’t need a 179 majority, lol
109 - Are you using the mobile service (which you have to download) or Betfair lite?
“http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-cameron-blew-it-labour-can-win-1800899.html”
John Rentoul reckons that Cameron has blown it. I’m sure that most politicians would give their eye-teeth to “blow it” so badly that they’re 14-19% ahead.
He cites “polls” that show Labour is ahead of the Conservatives. Does anyone know anything about these?
Politico : Christie not ‘fit’ for office?
…A recent Monmouth University poll found the word “fat” was the most frequent word that came to people’s minds when they thought of Christie.
…A TV ad by the campaign of Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine aired across this state in September and October charges Christie with using his office to get off the hook after a traffic accident and again when he was caught speeding in an unregistered vehicle.
“In both cases, Christie threw his weight around as U.S. attorney and got off easy,” the announcer says, as the screen shows Christie’s large head. The ad then closes with an unflattering slow-motion shot of Christie in full profile getting out of a SUV, his rotund stomach moving side-to-side, as the announcer says “Chris Christie, one set of rules for himself, another for everyone else.”
…New Jersey… is one of the 10 leanest states, according to a recent report by Trust for America’s Health. …
But while many of the nation’s obese adults don’t realize they’re overweight, a phenomenon dubbed “the fat gap,” Americans can still be unforgiving about the appearance of their elected officials, political experts say – and especially those on the West Coast and in the Northeast, where obesity rates are lower than in the South and Midwest.
“I do think Christie could be in trouble because of that. If he was in the South, people would probably say ‘bless his heart.’ But in New Jersey, someone could probably say he’s humongous fat,” said Alabama political strategist David Mowery, who ran Democrat Rep. Bobby Bright’s 2008 campaign.
…
In a year when healthcare reform is taking the national spotlight, Corzine stands to gain if Christie’s weight cuts against the credibility of the Republican’s plan to emphasize preventative care as a way to increase the number of affordable health insurance options, since weight-related illnesses are part of the reason why healthcare is so expensive, adding some $40 billion a year to the national tab, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Here’s a guy who’s going to talk about personal responsibility while driving down the cost of health care and childhood obesity. I think you need to be able to do that with a clear conscience,” said MeMe Roth, a New York-based certified nutrition and health counselor who recently practiced in New Jersey. “Clearly there are many things to consider other than a candidate’s lifestyle choices, but if the only criteria for his office was a healthy lifestyle, he’d be unelectable.”
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=40B645FE-18FE-70B2-A8D97C35FE545509
I’ve — again! — reversed my position, for I think now that Corzine will win!
110. Aren’t we lucky to have such a well-informed, independent-minded and politically astute press?
23
Amazing! someone can make a statement like that.
The, ‘likely’ to vote is difficult to determine, some of those less likely will probably stir themselves on GE day, (not with any enthusiasm) but they will.
96
If any Tories are mentioned, (there will be) Dave’s investigation of them was obviously a bit of whitewash, don’t you think.
We could be in a Macmillan type situation here, when a PM had to retire due to ill health, the polls were’nt looking to good for the Tories at the time.
113, he also reckons the Tories need an 11-12 point lead just for a majority.
re 104. Betfair used to be a great place for political betting and they would always be putting “cheeky” markets up on things like Alistair Campbell surviving the David Kelly affair.
Then in the face of greater government regulation it felt it needed to be respectable and all the good markets disappeared. They did not want to offend ministers by having markets on whether they would be sacked.
Boring.
117 - Come polling day somone will be claiming that they need a 20 point lead just for a majority.
113 - He didn’t actually write that - he simply spun the fact that Brown is less popular than his party, and Cameron more popular, to conclude that Labour do relatively “better” against the Conservatives than Brown does against Cameron.
Nonsense article all the same.
113 lol, the need to be ‘11 or 12 points ahead’ to win a majority - so Rentoul is basically taking how far they need to be ahead and adding a few points for luck
What a pathetic little piece - Rentoul did not like the speech so therefore it was a dud - despite polling to the contrary.
110. Harris coming up with a lot of bog standard spin - even wheeling out fox-hunting. More desperate attempts to drum up ‘Tory splits’ hoohaa. Notice they don’t mention the ICM poll.
113. When things don’t go Labour’s way, they just make stuff up.
113 Is this the poll???
Cut and pasted from
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/11/david-miliband-attacks-tory-links
Last night there were signs that links with Europe’s right were hitting the Tories’ standing with voters. Support for Cameron’s party has plummeted among the gay community, according to a new poll. A survey by PinkNews.co.uk found that only 22% of respondents would vote Tory if there was a general election tomorrow compared to 39% in June. Most of the voters who deserted the Conservatives moved over to Labour, the poll of 600 subscribers found.
97 Yokel - quite right, I did back the Postie at around 4/1 iirc in the summer, when that well-informed old schrewdie Henry G was suggesting he was value at 6/4 to be installed in Downing Street by end September - stick with the tennis Henry!
But, like I said, his moment has passed and right now I’d give half a dozen others a better chance. If, like me, you don’t fancy any of the favourites, how’s about a fiver on Jon Cruddas and a couple of quid on Hilary Benn? Not sure stjohn has backed either of these!
re 113. I think that John Rentoul wrote his piece before the ICM poll.
122, inaccurate. If you look at Brown’s Budgets and the crime stats, they’ve made stuff up when things have gone well for them.
123, hmm. An unweighted poll of one specific demographic with approximately half the standard pool of respondents. It couldn’t be much more invalid if it were in a wheelchair.
120 Yes, I see that I did misinterpret that parargraph. He did write this, though:-
“That means that Cameron is the big loser from the conference season. He was the leader with the chance to move up a gear; with a media willing him to do it and an electorate ready to listen. And what did he have to say? Big government bad; health visitors good; Labour hasn’t done enough to reverse the inequality of the Thatcher years. He blew it. “
Sad news about Stephen Gately btw.
116 Same goes for Labour’s ‘Star chamber’ and Nick Clegg’s ‘ton of bricks’
What people will see is the PM with his snout in the trough and all those ‘oh so horrified’ interviews he gave. Every penny he claimed will be pored over again and yet another chance to hear that he milks us for his satellite TV and his window cleaning and ironing and painting his summer house and a free house that he transferred to his wife to go with the official free houses he gets….
All parties are shamed by this but Labour will take the biggest hit, and rightly so. It was their party, they organised it all, they let it run riot.
123 That wasn’t an opinion poll. It was a readers’ survey, like the ones the Sun does from time to time.
127, reverse inequality? They didn’t do anything to do that, indeed, the gap has widened substantially under Labour.
It’s almost the kind of article a Sion Simon type idiot might read before penning his own piece of epic proportions.
131 Wouldn’t it be awful if Sion Simon somehow made his way into the Conservative Party?
132, I suspect Sion Simon is awful wherever he is. We should send him to Iran.
127 “[Cameron] was the leader with the chance to move up a gear; with a media willing him to do it”
What toss, Rentoul! The “media” were manufacturing a campaign this time last week with the sole intent of tripping up Cameron and derailing the Conference….
Mike S : “And have you ever tried using its so called mobile service. My phone is said to be compatible and it simply won’t let me log on.”
I’ve never had any problem logging-on Betfair Mobile whenever I’ve tried — from Thailand.
Thanks anyway for your suggestion. I might upload money on Ladbrokes.
I’m quite reluctant betting with bookies cause in my very first months of political-betting, I’ve placed 1000$ on Huckabee winning the Iowa Caucus at VC-bet. As well as a coupla hundreds on Mac winning New Hampshire.
After the Huckster’s victory, I wanted to put it all on Mac winning NH. To no avail. Their NH market was down, and they wouldn’t reopen it even at lesser odds! There was barely enough time for me to download the money and reupload it on betfair.
I don’t like the fact that bookies actually close markets, instead of simply changing the odds.
105 Sean - But has Jack “Accountancy isn’t my strong suit” Straw been forgiven for over-claiming by 100% the Council Tax on his expenses for several years in succession?
That reminds me of a question I posted on here last evening. Where MPs have overclaimed on their expenses, sometimes over a number of years, are they being required to pay commercial rates of interest, e.g as charged by HMR&C, based on the amounts and periods involved. IF NOT, WHY NOT?
136, also worth remembering (as the media seem not to) that nothing has happened over the Abrahams affair.
131 What - like this?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
138, Milipede = latter day Pushkin in Sion Simon’s warped mind.
Clinton/Miliband news conference now. What will Clinton say about the Latvians?
Postie Johnson on Marr now.
ARRSE story on Dannatt and Government: http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=135079.html
No link, so may well be speculation.
141 - He has been getting some foreign policy exposure. Was he on operations?
141 Rentoul will be excited, his boy is on
143, indeed. He was in Afghanistan as well.
141 - He’d be more use down at Mount Pleasant helping sort out the mail backlog his ex-mates are causing.
21. Yes, hung parliaments are unlikely so long as incumbent governments can choose when the election is called.
Fixed terms for parliaments would change that, though.
140. Bush would have called them “Latvanians”
Cameron must get every vote in the country just to have an overall majority of 1. Robert Harris again spinning the fib that Cameron/Brown is no where near Blair/Major. Why don’t the BBC correct people when they say this …
Why is the Home secretary being interviewed solely on Foreign Policy? This is rather transparant.
“Why don’t the BBC correct people when they say this …” Guess.
147 - Please explain to me why. When have we had an early “cut and run” election (except when a govt was elected with little or no majority) in the recent past? In addition the only time to my memory a party has gone long and “gotton away with it” was 1992 - but then some believe the Tories could still have won in 91.
150 - Everything except his brief.
110. No Cameron isnt getting the poll leads Labour got. The lead in this weekends ICM poll is 1% better than the lead Labour had in the ICM poll of October 1996.
149 “Why don’t the BBC correct people when they say this …”
What - and rob the People of Hope that the Evil Baby-Eating Tories might not win?
Good Morning Red Carded Goalkeeping Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Will the old charge of the SNP being “Tartan Tories” gain traction as Salmond is reported in the “Sunday Times” as being willing to support a minority Conservative government at Westminter ??
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6869591.ece
Marr agrees with Johnson that the Tory policy is ‘laissez-faire’, no attempt to investigate that claim
biased tw@
Johnson: Tories = new Notting Hill do nothing version of laissez-faire.
Marr: Sure
Alan Johnson on Marr - after Labour “threatened” to stop sending Cabinet Ministers until Marr apologised?
He does of course have a record of ignoring that type of order - staying in Commons to hear Frank Field’s resignation statement - but it does perhaps indicate his independence from the Gordon camp. Not altogether supportive of Brown’s line on prosperity’s dawn.
Marr’s “sure” in response to attacks on Conservatives is poorly chosen.
154 -
157 - I think we should use a stronger word than you did: chump.
Marr is being very easy going on Johnson. It’s more like a LP PPB.
[30] - And there is no ‘law of averages’.
There is a law of large numbers, though, which does imply that if the probability of a hung parliament is non-zero, then over a large number of elections the probability of there not being a hung parliament approaches zero. In common parlance, it becomes inevitable.
However, this is often mistakenly interpreted as implying that if there has not been a hung parliament for a long time then the probability of one is increased, whereas the probability is [mathematically, though perhaps not politically] unaffected by whether there had previously been hung parliaments or not.
123. That is the same voodoo ‘poll’ our resident smearbot linked to the other day.
161 oh Johnson and Marr are a pair of chumps
sure
Marr not interrupting like he did with Cameron, not aggressive, insulting or asserting Johnson has gotten something wrong.
Cock.
He did interrupt: he said “sure” several times.
Johnson still reeks of old Labour circa 1977 to me…
167 -
Johnson again unconvincingly says he doesn’t want the top job.
157. Labour don’t understand money.
They have no money to support the size of state they have created. If they don’t allow reality to be applied to the economic monster they have built, the currency will crash and we will require intervention from the IMF.
The Conservatives are, from previous track record, able to deal with these situations.
166 Was it an interview? Marr didn’t do any real follow up questions, asked, got reply, asked clarification, moved on. He has to look at his responses “yeah”, “sure” - whether with Osborne or Johnson, while conversationally OK isn’t right in a political interview.
Moore and Harris sticking the boot in to Blair as president, Johnson giggling like a schoolgirl at the prospect of his hero being President.
Clinton looks bored stiff listening to Milipede at the press conference
174 I was just about to make the same comment.
Let’s be kind and put it down to jet-lag, rather than her standing there thinking “Jeez, who is this c*ck?”
Oh dear there appears to be another maening to George’s message “we are all in it together” and he could be in it deeper than most:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6293282/MPs-expenses-325-MPs-told-to-pay-up-or-explain.html
I recollect a Professor I knew having a similar problem 15 years ago. He did not have it treated immediately (lots of seminars and lectures to give), and as a result had to take 10 days out to recover from surgery. Given that his other eye was perfect this suggests to me that Brown should be careful in the decisions he makes. Losing your sight in your second eye is not a trivial thing, and being knocked out for 10 days is difficult to reconcile with being PM.
Betfair used to be a great place for political betting and they would always be putting “cheeky” markets up on things like Alistair Campbell surviving the David Kelly affair.
That sounds like they earlier had a “Shadsy” who became frustrated and simply moved on. I remember Mike meeting with their top people around 2-3 years ago, but it clearly didn’t appear to result in any progress in the way they approach political betting. Whilst 3 or 4 major bookies (Hills, after an initial foray, now being conspicuous by their absence) offer odds on a large selection of individual constituencies, yet betfair’s corresponding markets remain moribund - says it all really.
By all accounts it’s tough out there in the betting markets, with bookies suffering as a result of the low number of drawn games in the Premier League, couldn’t you just weep for them!
Why don’t one or two of the lesser known names have a go at introducing just a few “specials” in the political sphere. They don’t need to compete in all the major markets, just a few interesting bets. Only Ladbrokes, Hills and Paddy Power do these currently and I feel sure these provide wider than average margins as well as raising their profile somewhat. In just the same way, firms like bet365, Stan James and Boylesport are often more competitive than the major firms with their tennis markets.
It’s a pretty pass when all PB’s Blue Team have to moan about is soft interview of Posty Al.
You folks need a few Con 35% polls to worry about !!
175 doesnt help that she just described the meeting as a ‘breakfast and a conversation over that breakfast’ - hardly Yalta. I wonder if Milipede had a banana?
AM Show a Labour luvvie-in. Blair is no longer seen as ‘one of us’ but still gets polite plaudits from Aherne and Johnson (natch).
176 perhaps the Lib Dems should leave the investiagtion to the independant panel rather than making it up as they go along. At least they all have very smartly pressed trousers though.
181 PB lurker. A few more posts and Mike will do you under the PB Descriptions Act 2005 !!
Has tim fallen down a well?
180
176. Two Words…
MIchael Brown
152. Would the Tories have won so handsomely in 1984 as in 1983 when the post-Falklands euphoria had diminished? I doubt if the opposition would have been so conveniently evenly split (28% Lab/26% Alliance).
179 JackW, we are flailing around, not having tim to give us some focus for our ire…
“We want tim, we want tim, we want tim”
Just for a bit, mind.
179 - Well Rod Crosby has predicted that the Tories will be polling around 35% shortly.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/05/is-this-pay-back-time-for-the-suns-announcement/#comment-1249084
179 Jack - I did wonder if Marr was doing the equivalent of a Football referee giving a free kick after he wrongly awared a corner - attempting to balance out asking “that question”. It was one of the softest and least illuminating political interviews I’ve seen, other than Mariella Frostrup questioning Gordon Brown.
183. Would do a smiley if I knew how. (anyone care to help?)
176 - Hmm, Michael Brown.
Remember people in glass houses…. shouldn’t get changed with the lights on.
This Letts inquiry - it goes back 5 years, so will it include expenses claimed in that period by MPs that are no longer sitting? ‘Cos I’d really love to get the full down and dirty on that Marshall bloke who did a runner when the press started sniffing around.
I know Hilary Clinton has a huge amount of respect for David Milliband. It’s been said he could be the next Tony Blair representing Britain on the global stage as a man of great intelligence, integrity and who commands respect.
It’s unfortunate the Tories have nobody in Milliband’s league. And there’s no chance he will ever defect to the nasty party.
170
It was a soft interview no doubt, but to those of us who remember Alistair Burnett’s interview’s of Mrs T, Marr had AJ on the rack.
Still with, ‘The War of Gordon’s Eye’ all over the media, it won’t do him any harm.
194 - I too am glad that Tories have no one in Bananaman’s league.
187-The Euro polls (usual warning) had C39, L 35, LD 19.
188. MM
He’s probably in hiding from the ‘Bullying Club’ (the Sunday Express - alas not on line yet) after his succinct final comment last night on the news that Labour were 19 points behind (did he come back?)
Bye bye Gordon
186 jfsl - are we srarting a word association game? I wil go
Michael Ashcroft
191 Replace ? with a colon : - and make sure you leave spaces either side of the colons, or they won’t work
laugh out loud ?lol?
shocked ?shock?
big smile ?D
193 - yes, I’d like to see one Tony Blair’s expenses… ooops too late the shredder got them.
199 Lord Rennard
190 I’ve seen harder interviews on GMTV - what a waste of an hour.
188/198 - I think the Poll in the Mail on Sunday probably sent him over the edge.
One of the findings was 62% support a cut in IHT/DMT, whilst on 19% oppose a cut.
The reason Marr doesn’t challenge dubious assertions is because he operates to a pre-prepared set of questions which he is intending to ask. “Sure” isn’t an indication of agreement with what his interviewee is saying, but an indication that their is a danger of the interview going off at a tangent.
Basically just a sign that he isn’t much good at thinking on his feet and why his interviews rarely reveal anything newsworthy.
Anyway, for a bit of light humour…
Yvette on Sky - Boulton doesn’t seem very impressed.
194. I thought this photo of DM allegedly at the press conference this morning really portrayed his inner soul:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/melmoththewanderer/103414857/
;o)
205 - Oh you are kidding me. David Miliband as EU Foreign Minister?
I need to lie down again.
This could well create a momentum of its own. With enough (Labour people) hoping it’s true (though obviously not wishing him ill) he might just get swept out by a tide of well wishers. The polls aren’t looking good and a Labour leadership election should gift them an extra 7 or 8%.
188 MM. Oh !! be very, very careful what you wish for !!
190 Ted. Perhaps. Sometimes the soft sofa interviews can be disarmingly illustrative. Although I’d concede this mornings effort barely passed muster.
191 PB lurker. Here’s a few of the most used.
Move the ) or : to the left to implement.
MIKE - your clock is ten minutes out
177. “being knocked out for 10 days is difficult to reconcile with being PM.”
Only if the PM is a control-freak who can’t take the thought of not having his hand on the tiller (and indeed, all the other controls).
189. Rod only implied that the Tories would be heading back to 35% “shortly”. I’m sure he’s technically right in what he actually wrote, implied timescales apart: the Tories will head down to 35% *at some point*. Probably 2011.
Re: Milliband to be EC Foreign minister rumour. So this is how Brown gets rid of one rival to Balls for the Leadership?
209 - Well if they choose Harman or Balls, you’re right the Tories just end up with another 7 or 8 per cent.
205 - yes Milliband as ‘High Representative’ of the EU is funny. i read somewhere that both Germany and France are keen to have that one.
202. Irvine Laidlaw
194-I know Hilary Clinton has a huge amount of respect for David Milliband. It’s been said he could be the next Tony Blair representing Britain on the global stage as a man of great intelligence, integrity and who commands respect.
Is this a spoof post?
215. I think Milliband wrote that about himself.
Thanks Jack W.
199. Goupillon:
The point is that the whiter than white holier than thou puritans that were once the Liberal Democrats are no more. They are down in the dirt with everyone else and to keep trying to smear about such things just shows what a bunch of hypocrites you are!
Now go press your trousers……
210 And more - no spaces between the characters
colon twisted colon =
colon evil colon =
colon ( =
124. PfP Cruddas is interesting because he could well run. Leader? I find it unlikely but I suspect there are a couple of leading contenders in the markets who simply wont be standing or in reality arent going to win. Successfully identify them and the market would look very different.
Apart from the Postie, who else fits that kind of profile?
215 - It’s quite funny that the article writes it up as “plan B” for Blair not getting the job as President.
Blair being President would give serious credibility to the idea of the EU becoming dangerously influential as a Global Superstate.
Miliband being Foreign Minister would do the exact opposite!
It is odd that the activists praying that Brown is not replaced are the Conservatives.
219 PB lurker. You’re welcome. Now change your monicker or we send the boys round !!
This‘ll be embarrassing for the Government as well.
The independent police report is actually going to be independent!!!
224 - I’m fairly certain there are quite a few Blairites who dont want Brown replaced either.
223. And either one will play into the Tories hands.
217 If it’s a spoof then it’s outclassed by this:
“Mr Miliband’s tenure as Foreign Secretary has won him admirers in Brussels where many are understood to consider him “ideal material” [for EU Foreign Secretary]. ”
Surely not even the Daily Labourgraph would be capable of posting drivel like this with a straight face. But that’s where this comes from.
226 - that link is the Milliband story.. was that your intention ?
228 - No i don’t agree - I think that the Tories are genuine in desperately trying to avert the prospect of Blair as President.
It would play into the hands of the “Better of Out”-ers but that’s a different issue.
191
http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies
Surely Brown’s early departure date depends just as much on the health of President Klaus as his own?
test
230 - Oops.
This story
Test
232 - Thank you Mr Coldstone.
WRT Next Labour leader market, I would steer clear of both Straw and Johnson.
Two scenarios: vacancy pre- and post-election.
If the vacancy isn’t until after the election, Straw is very definately out of the game. He’s well into his sixties and no longer the emergency choice should Brown fall under a bus even before the poll (that now being Harman). Johnson, while more popular and with more of a base, has simply ruled himself out too many times for reasons well beyond which a pretender would normally go. He too is getting on and would be in his mid-sixties by 2014/5.
If there’s a vacancy before the election, the question is whether there will be a coronation or not. My guess is now that there would be simply because there isn’t time for a full-on contest, although I don’t expect Brown to stand down (the leak about his sight is more to do with distracting from the expenses story IMO. The problem with distractions is that they can bring other things into view that would otherwise have been largely unnoticed).
Were such a stitch-up required, the crown would surely fall to Harman. She has a fine moral claim as the current deputy and though that’s not conclusive according to the rules, it probably would be in reality as it would be the basis on which she could refuse to stand aside - and if she won’t stand aside, there can be no coronation for anyone else. Can we really see Harman standing aside for a man, especially a man she beat or one who didn’t even stand in the contest for deputy.
FWIW, Harman would probably be a runner after the election as well - should Brown make it that far - but so will the next generation, from whom I expect Labour will choose Brown’s successor.
232 coldstone. I fear we may have created a whole new army of Martin Day’s …. Bugger !!
229. He is indeed ideal material, as a fanatical EU supporter with a communist background.
229.Miliband’s war is his own private war, not Britain’s.
What he is fogetting, is that European cooperation cannot go ahead if we all look backwards. The old hatreds are everywhere, and have to be put to one side, if new cooperation is to happen.
As in Ireland, you have to sit down with your former ‘devils’ to make future peace.
Miliband’s family were murdered by the Nazis. I don’t expect him to be pleased about it, but if he wishes to lead the future, he has to move on from the past.
You cannot order people to obey you when it comes to forgiveness and to apologising. They have to decide when to do it themselves. Miliband is demonstrating hatreds and anger of his own, and a certainty about things which do not warrant such certainty.
His words and his demeanour are not conducive to the healing of the old hatreds he claims to be at the top of his agenda. Peace results from a peaceful attitude, not from anger,bitterness and constant accusation.
He needs to drop it, and behave like a British and a Christian person. He is becoming an ugly spectacle betraying an ugly mind. No good will come of it.
239
I don’t use ‘em ‘cos some people just go bonkers with ‘em.
225 Jack W. Trying to read the political tea leaves on seat betting. I see Clegg was in Newport East where I fancy their chances. Can this be interpreted as a sign of increasing yellow peril confidence in that seat that should be backed up? I’m guessing Clegg will only visit seats they have a chance in/are trying to hold between now and the election.
If you’re an MP a very safe seat (like Harman, Johnson or Milliband), then your inclination will be to let Brown take the blame for the defeat and make your move after the GE.
But, Cruddas has a personal motive for moving before the election, as a Brown holocaust might easily remove him from the Commons. So, if I was Cruddas, I would want to move befoer the GE.
Cruddas would be by far the hardest opponent for Cameron to fight — Cruddas is not tainted by office and could easily say “Labour made some bad mistakes, we’re sorry.”. He is intellectually up to the job (in a way that Alan Johnson isn’t). And he has a record of criticising the New Labour Gov’t for ignoring their traditional support base (which is exactly what Labour need now).
Cruddas has no Cabinent experience — but then he would be up against someone with no Cabinent experience.
Of course, Cruddas won’t win, but he could make it very much harder for the Tories. Certainly, we’d leave landslide territory.
192. “Remember people in glass houses…. shouldn’t get changed with the lights on.”
That all depends on who they are. They certainly shouldn’t if they’re Michael Brown (apologies for putting that thought in people’s minds).
238 My money is on Harman as next leader - if GB stands down she’s Dept Labour Leader, and Mandy is trapped in the Lords.
I am always happy to hear from those who are listened to that the Tories need a 20% lead for a majority of one, that they are not nearly as far ahead as Labour where in the pre-Golden age of NuLabour.
Why?
Well it ensures that there is a feeling that a Tory win in unlikely, a hung parliament is possible, so the disaffected Labour vote will stay at home and those wanting Brown out will be determined to vote to ensure it, not wasting their vote on fringe parties like the LibDems or UKIP.
The more convinced people are that the mountain climbing is almost impossible the better. That it will take an extraordinary effort to achieve.
And the most gullible will be Labour supporters in La-La land.
242 coldstone. Admirable restraint.
239/242. Oh Jack W / Coldstone what have you done?????
Tee hee hee
239 - Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock
Errr Stuart… It was meant as humour. Patently don’t have that up there. I blame the midges.
by Gadfly O
gadfly
Your nation are a load of nancy boy morris dancing lager lout spongers!
Only joking!
hahaha!
David Herdson @238: “[The deputy leadership] would be the basis on which she could refuse to stand aside - and if she won’t stand aside, there can be no coronation for anyone else”
But the choice in this situation is with the Cabinet, no? (In consultation with the NEC, whatever that means.) If the cabinet vote for someone else, that someone else gets coronated…
238 - You get the feeling that there are some people in the cabinet who would rather see Brown continue as leader than let Harriet and her anti-man, scaring the WWC voters anywhere near the levers of power.
:o:
Very good analysis,David Herdson @ 238. Current betting suggests that at least five times out of eight GB will lead Labour at the next GE.
So the way to go about it is to split your thinking 62.5%- 37.5% or whatever figure takes your fancy.
All the value has disappeared from Betfair’s ‘Next PM’ market where yesterday you could have backed AJ in double figures and Harman in the 20s but value has a habit of resurfacing there.
One thing for sure is that Cameron is rarely any value on ‘Next PM’ and you might do better elsewhere.
238 - I think the problem with Labour choosing a next gen candidate is that they are unlikely to gain traction in the first few years. The party may simply not be willing to be led.
238 - Actually, doesn’t Her Majesty choose the PM on the basis on whomever commends a majority of support of MP’s in the common.
Basically labour MP’s can decide who they want and sod the rest of the Labour movement.
Thanks very much Plato. OK Jack W - from now on I’ll be PollyB (no relation to La Toynbee of course)
Off to watch Marr and Boulton then out to lunch so TTFN
by Easterross October 11th, 2009 at 9:06 am
Yawn…………
Don’t think the nation are particularly interested in what YOUR plans are for today-or any other day, for that matter, Easter!
243 Punter. Broadly yes. Although it might also be read as a slightly more long term stategy in the seat. But yes, your logic is sound - Come the election I don’t expect Clegg to be found in the darkest deepest depths of Beaconsfield …. Even at the delightful prospect of giving Mi Lord Matlock a slight jolt up the electoral rectum !!
227 With the threat of an early election receding then the need for the Blairites to stick with Brown to keep the EU Presidency viable decreases.
251 - Aargh can we please stop using the non-word coronated.
Interesting comment from Iain Dale
“The reaction to the Gordon Brown story did not show the blogosphere in a very good light. Whatever one’s view of Brown as a politician, no one can deny that he has shown courage in dealing with his disability. Several commentators interpreted the announcement of tears in his retina as start of a softening up process, which will end in his departure on health grounds. I’m not so sure”
Thanks jack, coldstone etc.
Mind you given the state of the polls, from my point of view, should be
Oh Gawd told u!
On more thought on David Herdson’s post about Harman etc: On the principle that young Cardinals vote for old Popes, are the cabinet going to want to pick someone who looks like they could lose the election and stay on as leader? I’d have thought they’d be more likely to want a leader who will either win the election or go away. So either someone old or someone with a small majority…
If Brown went before the election it would actually make MORE sense for them to have an uncontested leader crowned.
Basically because it would allow them to have a proper contest after the election. If they elected someone in haste now then they would inevitably be “given a chance” in opposition, even if (by being elected as potential PM in 2010) they were totally unsuited to the task of rebuilding in opposition.
257 PollyB. A most warm welcome former lurker.
Are you of the blue persuasion. We’re short of them y’know !!
Surely the only person with any motivation for moving against Brown before the GE is Cruddas.
Harman, Milliband, Johnson have very safe seats and will still be there. They must surely want Brown to carry the can for the mess he created.
But, Cruddas could be engulfed by a disasterous Brown election campaign. He has a personal reason for moving before the GE.
Cruddas would be by far the most difficult opponent for Cameron. He is intellectually up to the job (Johnson isn’t). He has clean hands and can apologize for past mistakes. And he has a track record of criticising New Labour for ignoring their traditional base.
265 - If they have a second successive coronation, surely people will say, you expect us to trust your judgement after you gave Brown a coronation?
264 - I think any leader not elected to the leadership will have to open themselves up for re-election post Election defeat, so not a major issue.
So his conference fightback has failed, and now he’s setting a pretext for a way out? typical cowardice we’ve come to expect from Brown, and Labour on the whole. Not that I’m complaining though, good riddance to the lot of them.
241- Tapestry, I entirely agree with your sentiments but (and its a big but) I feel the use of the concept “Christian person” is in this instance wholly inappropiate.
268 Scream. I like a good coronation …. but sadly Gordon’s was nothing like a good coronation !!
258 Jack W. Yes I agree that it could be long term but I think as Newport East is one of only two seats where they are the clear challengers to Labour in Wales I think they could just do it in one leap. Labour will be fighting in and almost certainly not suceeding in holding Newport West next door against the Tories. The local CLP have never had a competitive race in their lives. The Lib Dems seem to thrive on such opponents. I think that CLP will get a real shock when forests of winning here placards show up all across the seat.
260 - James, what is the correct term for someone who has had a coronation?
268 - not really an issue. The electorate will make their choice on the options presented to them. They won’t subcontract their opinions to others, whether it be the Cabinet or the Labour Party.
A lot of the stuff put in the media about “coronations” is just not based on reality IMO.
267 Cruddas has no governmental experience and would lose and lose extremely heavily in any leadership battle. He is a post-defeat candidate only.
Britain would not forgive Labour for putting someone in the top job with absolutely no experience in cabinet or shdow cabinet in this circumstance. It would also question the abilities of the enitre cabinet that none of them could be a better option than ‘who’?!
274 - A person the recipient of a coronation has been crowned usually.
Morning everyone -Can’t post properly until later,staying with friends who have a West Wing that we slept in. Real money with style, no wine racks above the aga here.
Polls and other events bad for Brown and good for Labour.
Expenses to finish Gordon and Gideon?
274 crowned
277/279 - Thank you.
273 Punter. Possibly. I don’t have any new info on the seat.
What I do expect come the general election is a larger number of upset results outside of the range of UNS.
But if we had Fixed Term Parliaments, we would surely fix them for 4 years (unless anyone can come up with a good reason for more or less) and so the Thatcher elections would still have happened.
1974-79 - Full term parliament; only example where the governing party stood a better chance of holding on if they had of gone early (78)
1979-83 4 year parliament, govt re-elected
1983-87 4 year parliament, govt re-elected
1987-92 Full term parliament; any views on how Major would have done in 91?
1992-97 Full term parliament; sitting PM would have lost whenever he went
1997-01 4 year parliament, govt re-elected
2001-05 4 year parliament, govt re-elected
So where is the evidence that choosing an election date helps the sitting government? The nuclear option of an early general election is like the nuclear deterent itself - there so you don’t have to use it. Any FTP solution would be 4 or 5 years and thus the history of politics in my life would have been much the same as it was in reality.
278. I see tim is pretending he has a social life again. “Oh last night I went to dinner with 487 of my closest friends haha! but funnily enough I managed to comment continuously on here throughout”.
Knob.
266. I am indeed of the blue persuasion (a recent Cameroon convert). I did notice you need a few more
Excellent site and thanks for the welcome.
282 - I think, Major would have won in 1991, the election would have been fought along the same lines and narrative of April 1992.
Am I right in thinking Major also received a bit of a bounce post Gulf War I?
284. Oops that should of course have been from PollyB.
285 - Yes, I read somewhere that Major didn’t actually go to the polls in 1991 because he thought it wouldn’t be correct to exploit the “Gulf War bounce”.
277 “Britain would not forgive Labour for putting someone in the top job with absolutely no experience in cabinet or shdow cabinet in this circumstance.”
But that is what Britain will do if they elect Cameron.
Cruddas has no Cabinent experience, but he will be fighting against someone with no Cabinent experience. When you have the mess Labour have, it is an **electoral advantage** to be able to say that you have no Cabinent experience.
286 - Really,thanks for that.
Compare and contrast Brown’s actions in Oct 07 when he tried the armed forces for electioneering purposes.
286. Remarkable to think that Major could have won in the midst of a very nasty recession. Speaks volumes about what a tainted brand Labour were and what a joke candidate Kinnock was. Not that it did Kinnock too much harm of course - look at him now.
277. Coronated is a perfectly good word, even if its a new one, so let’s use it.
That’s the joy of English, and why it is the World’s Greatest Language And Much Better Than French or German - you can make up cracking new words and in its infinitely accommodating, gloriously flexible way - English welcomes them to the lexicon.
In pb terms, I understand “Coronated” to mean “simply deciding on a leader without going through any of the usual ritual, specifically an election”. This is a subtly different meaning to “crowned” - which means the symbolic moment and process when someone becomes a sovereign.
Coronated. I like.
But I doubt any Labour minister would get coronated this time around, if Brown falls. They all resent each other too much. And Harman is too ambitious to simply allow Johnson or Milipede the job.
277. Coronated is a perfectly good word, even if its a new one, so let’s use it.
That’s the joy of English, and why it is the World’s Greatest Language And Much Better Than French or German - you can make up cracking new words and in its infinitely accommodating, gloriously flexible way - English welcomes them to the lexicon.
In pb terms, I understand “Coronated” to mean “simply deciding on a leader without going through any of the usual ritual, specifically an election”. This is a subtly different meaning to “crowned” - which means the symbolic moment and process when someone becomes a sovereign.
Coronated. I like.
But I doubt any Labour minister would get coronated this time around, if Brown falls. They all resent each other too much. And Harman is too ambitious to simply allow Johnson or Milipede the job.
OH! You’re my new favorite blogger fyi
251. That’s true but Harman would otherwise still be around as deputy leader in that situation and would be almost impossible to control if she thought that she’d been cheated out of the leadership by the Boys Club.
For all her faults, she’s been just about the only cabinet minister to take the fight to the Tories and not look ludicrous in doing so.
As for Young Cardinals and Old Popes, surely that is (from their point of view) one of the key reasons not to commit pontifricide, if they’re unsure about how a conclave might go. The Old Pope is not yet dead.
288 - I didn’t say it was true, just that i read it somewhere!
Probably around the time of Oct ‘07 though. It could well have been a bit of rewriting of history by Tories though…
287 - Sounds like the Obama-McCain arguement to me and what happened there?
Labour trouble post-election drubbing will be the same as the Tories in 1997; the leadership may change but the frontbench will be the same people who have just been ousted by the electorate. So Cruddas takes the helm … who is in his Shadow Cabinet? Either your Harmans, Johnsons, Millibands or appoint a clean but inexperienced team.
287 Cameron has been ledaer of the opposition, in the shadow cabinet and a privy councillor since elected leader (and is Howards shadow cabinet before that)
Cruddas has turned down any offer he has received to move on in politics.
There is no possible electoral advantage in Cruddas - Labour would be seen as a laughing stock, their entire cabinet seen as unworthy of the big job. After a defeat, Cruddas can claim to be the new start. Right now he is just a guy that has shied away from government coming in like a crow after some carrion.
Would cost Labour a few % in the polls. How many wavering Labourites do you think would turn out for some bloke they have barely heard of?
291: She’d behave herself until the election, surely? After all, she’d have plenty of chance of getting her own back after the election (which Labour would still be odd-on to lost, presumably).
291 - “For all her faults, she’s been just about the only cabinet minister to take the fight to the Tories and not look ludicrous in doing so.”
You sure. I think she looks pretty ludicrous.
“Coronated” and “pontifricide”. How can you not love this place?
282. Looking at the polls in March - May 1991 I don’t think it would have been that much different. Con vote share range was 37-42, Labour vote share range was 37-43. Whereas the range a year later was Con 35-43 and Labour 38-43 on a far larger number of polls.
Of course we can all speculate what might have happened on any particular day or during the election campaign but I think it would have been quite close:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
254. URW
“All the value has disappeared from Betfair’s ‘Next PM’ market where yesterday you could have backed AJ in double figures and Harman in the 20s but value has a habit of resurfacing there.”
That was me.
If Brown goes I make money on every possible Labour contender, Straw at 46 and Balls at 100 were IMO especially good value.
294 further to this, how could any current cabinet member answer with a straight face the question ‘Is John Cruddas the right man to lead the country?’ in an election campaign
293-David-Your post made me remember of this:
“Harriet Harman’s joke about Labour loving Peter Mandelson so much she might take him to meet her mother brought a smile to Mandy’s thin lips.
But not for the reason Harman thought. ‘The only thing stopping Peter finishing off Gordon is his fear Harman will succeed him and be even worse,’ said a Mandy crony.”
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-1217966/BLACK-DOG-Romeo-Alan-Johnson-loves-Labour-lost.html
298 Cruddas can’t be a new start if he is beaten in D & R. Even a moderately heavy beating could see him out never mind the current polls. That is a factor.
Riveting radio this morning..not
Muckguire in full smear mode on 5 live about Gen Dannat. later programme..”how to make David Cameron look less posh…”
- “How can you not love this place?”
Ask Mark Senior, cos he clearly loathes PB.
(We love teddy too Mark!)
295. Were Brown to resign / be deposed before the election, and Harman to be overlooked in a cabinet decision, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her refuse to serve in the cabinet while remaining Deputy Leader. It would run the risk of looking petty but it would also distance herself mightily from the looming defeat.
It’s not as if the cabinet is overflowing with talent from which to pick alternatives - who would they select instead?
156. Jack, based on the whole story it will do the SNP good, once again Alex is stating publicly that he will support policies that are good for Scotland, no other parties MP’s from Scotland ever consider this when voting. It is bizarre that people vote for these people despite the evidence over the years that they care not a jot for Scotland. The SNP for all their faults have only Scotland’s interests at heart.
303 another richard.Very well done. Every day I spin the wheel to determine who will lead Labour into the GE if GB is forced to retire on health grounds.
Today the ball plopped firmly into the AJ slot ! Whatever his protestations now, things would look different if Brown resigned rather than being forced out by a putsch.
Today AlanJ was doing something very unusual for a politician.He was making himself out to be really *old*.This ties in with the theme of cardinals not electing young popes.
If Labour want to lose the coming election with dignity then I think AJ is the man to do that and his ‘John Majorliness’ will contrast well with the Bullingdon Set.
295 We know who Cameron’s prefered Labour leader is.
But, who do you think Cameron would least like to face?
I think Cameron will now win whoever he faces. IMO, Johnson and Harman will do almost as badly as Brown. Johnson because I think his intellectual fraility will become obvious in a campaign, & Harman because she is an obviously polarising figure.
Like Sean Fear @105, I think Straw would do better than Brown. But he has expenses problems and is deeply implicated in some of the unpopular Labour decisions.
Cruddas would do better than Straw.
Cruddas has already said he was mistaken to have voted for war in Iraq, and I could imagine him running a GE campaign which began by apologising for mistakes on the economy (and there’d be plenty of quotes to support the line that the Tories would have made the same mistakes. “We are all in this together. We all made the same mistakes together”.
Cameron would be at his most vulnerable facing Cruddas.
Isn’t an Iraq war inquiry going to seriously jeopardise Blair’s chances with required Old European backers for the EU Presidency by re-opening old wounds?
312 - Cruddas would be slaughtered. He simply isn’t up to being PM.
314. I’d like to hear the arguments against him.
306 a factor yes but it does not make him a sensible choice now, it makes it slightly more likely he might make a move if he fancies it.
314 Proof ?
Cruddas got the highest number of votes in the first round. A FPTP election would have delivered Cruddas as Deputy Leader.
He has an impressive intellectual background (much like Cameron) but didn’t share the same schooling advantage that Cameron did. He is clearly the equal of Johnson in appealing to Labour’s traditional supporters, but has much more intellectual mettle.
315 his views and opinions wouldn’t even factor. Unless he also installed an enitrely new cabinet, the likes of Harman and all would be continually asked ‘is Cruddas the right man? Why is he a better option than any of you that have served in the cabinet’
If he has an entirely new cabinet then Labour admit they were utterly wrong about everything.
You can;t construct an argument where Cruddas is the right man before an election. He should have taken a cabinet role and quietly briefed his vision. He didn’t, he ran away and has hidden wothout any proper opposition to the government or any vocal support, he has just been mainly invisible.
315. It’s more a gut feeling than anything else. He’s allowed himself to be typecast as the scrappy east London outsider, and that tends to preclude the wider appeal of a successful leadership bid.
Which is not to denigrate the man, because I like him a lot.
Labour are now so deep in the poop I doubt a new leader could do much. Maybe Alan Johnson’s “niceness” would add a coupla points (but why?). Maybe Harman’s femaleness would swing a few women (though many women seem to dislike her intensely). Miliband is an arrogant jerk, I can’t see him persuading anyone.
And that’s about it, surely. Labour itself is now despised, Brown is just the lightning conductor for the contempt.
And of course if they do *replace* him, there is always the chance the next guy will do even WORSE, or that an attempted coronation will kick off some horrible civil war in the party.
No, Brown will stay - unless Gordo himself loses his bottle, along with his last remaining retina. It’s a tragicomedy. I’d laugh if I weren’t so sensitive.
I think Cruddas is a pretty good operator. The Labour party will inevitably swing left after the election - the “savage cuts” will force them to. Cruddas would be an authentic voice in this role. He is genuinely of the left. Blairites like Alan Johnson couldn’t carry it off as well.
The Peter Mandelson sideshow will be especially fun to watch.
317 - I’ve no doubt that he is an interesting figure on the left but he is a potential post defeat option. Secondly why is he not in the fray now? Finally he isn’t saying anything that interesting as it isb’t being picked up.
309: “It’s not as if the cabinet is overflowing with talent from which to pick alternatives - who would they select instead?”
Alternatives as PM? Straw, Johnson, Darling (?), Denham (?)
Alternatives as Leader Of The House? Who cares?
I’m not saying Harman isn’t in with a chance in this hypothetical scenario, but I’m not seeing that she’s got it sewn up either. It’s the cabinet who get to choose, and they’re going to want to avoid going the way of Michael Portillo. The Deputy Leadership is clearly a plus (democratic legitimacy, sort-of) and her “moral claim” may play a part, but if the cabinet think they’ll do substantially better with someone else, that’s who they’ll pick.
220. jsfl - As you suggest I think we should wait and see when the full list of the 325 MPs is published with the details of the amounts to be repaid or under query. Then it will be simple to calculate the average amounts of expenses per MP for each of the parties represented in the HoC wrongly claimed. I wonder which of the parties will be the least and worst offenders?
I have to admit, I quite like Jon Cruddas, his policies for taking on the BNP are quite sensible, and avoid falling into the usual trap of demonising the BNP, and actually addresses the concerns of the BNP voter.
314 That is really based on nothing, Cruddas I think would be a good leader of the opposition and would Give Cameron a run for his money. I happen to believe that a strong opposition is good for Britain and Cruddas would offer a viable alternative and better yet he would I think take Labour away from reliance on the deceit that is New Labour. One thing concerns me, he seems to be cosying up a little too much to the left, recently, and it would do him no favours to maintain this position.
In general though if he can aim at representing the working man I think he is personable enough to connect with the electorate. We will see.
321 absolutely, I think Cruddas is a strong ‘post-armageddon’ choice if he survives.
Labour would be committing suicide to put him in before - for a start the electorate would be definitively rejecting the swing to wherever he would take them before he as a chance to spin it.
If it was pre-election, I think Darling stands out brilliantly. He has an integrity and air to him that no-one else near the top has. Very much a John Major type figure. While I don’t think there is any chance of Labour stopping the Tories from winning, Darling could limit them to a small majority.
Johnston Press must be getting deeper in the mire, no online edition of Scotland on Sunday today, very odd.
324 what has the average got to do with anything? A wrong claim is a wrong claim, the amount is irrelevant. Besides, one person with a £400,000 fantasy mortgage would skew the figures entirely.
% of MPs asked to return any money would be a better judgement - which party has the highest % of light fingers
311.
If Labour want to lose the coming election with dignity then I think AJ is the man to do that and his ‘John Majorliness’ will contrast well with the Bullingdon Set.
by URW October 11th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Wrong again, URW.
Alan Johnson, besides being ‘not the Man’, will not want his name associated with a massive or even moderate Labour defeat after 12 years of government.
To be appointed or elected Labour leader now in lieu of Brown, is simply to be drinking from a poisoned chalice.
318 I agree that there is a difficulty in getting from where Labour are now to a Cruddas-led Labour Party before the GE.
All I am saying is that Cruddas has a personal motivation (he will, unlike the other contenders, lose his seat on current polling). And Labour have a real motivation for electing him (no one has contested my claim that Cameron would find Cruddas the most awkward opponent on the current contenders).
So the puzzle is — given Labour are now looking at 15-20 point polling deficits — can they find a way through the mess to install him?
328 - Sadly, Darling’s credibility will be destroyed in November.
Why no one mentioned Ed Miliband?
334 - Because his CV would be like manna from heaven for the Tories.
“In 2004 he was appointed chairman of HM Treasury’s Council of Economic Advisers, directing the UK’s long-term economic planning”
333 - Especially when he has to update his borrowing figures.
332 Cameron might find Cruddas awkward but that would be offset by Cruddas entire cabinet being a laughing stock ‘what, so seriosuly this guy with no experience in government is a better leader than you Ms Harman/Mr Johnson/Mr Straw/Mr Banana? And you are 100% behind his vision of *insert 180 turn from what you said last week here*’
Cruddas needs time, and he does not have it. Hence he would be a disaster for Labour.
Post-election if he survives then yes, good choice.
333. Given that Gordon will make him look a fool anyway, Darling might as well just stand up, do this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx0nHuFJR0E
Then sit down again.
318. Dyed “If he has an entirely new cabinet then Labour admit they were utterly wrong about everything.”
But that is indeed a potential strategy for them. A swift swing left would cheer much of their core vote.
328. Socrates “If it was pre-election, I think Darling stands out brilliantly. “
Darling is going to lose his seat.
312. Who would Cameron least like to face? Good question. Vince Cable? And an answer for the real world? Probably Harman, which is why I rate her chances (apart from her initial position of strength). Yes, she would be polarising but the next election is in the Tories hands; Cameron will win as long as he doesn’t drop the ball. Polarising isn’t necessarily a problem and she would at least present a Labour party that appeared to believe in something more than their own survival in office. A polarising leader also means a party with enough resiliance to get through the initial difficult days of opposition and could enable an earlier recovery.
Anyway, I’m off now to spend the afternoon in feudal Japan with Anjin-san, Toranaga and company. Have fun.
Arguments against Cruddas? He’s an autodidactic nerdocrat, with an distractingly verbose speaking style, who often disappears up his own dialectic. He’s also quite seriously leftwing.
He lacks the common touch. He can’t emote or empathise. He is charming in a swotty way, he seems honest, but that really isn’t enough. He’s a thinker not a leader: he’s a younger rougher Michael Foot, a Keith Joseph of the left, a quintessential backroom boy.
Like so many of these putative Labour leaders, his virtues as leader seem to shrink upon closer scrutiny. Cf Milipede.
Anyone see Alastair Campbell’s latest blog? He’s still living in a dreamworld where Labour were apparently subjected to fierce media scrutiny and the Tories are getting away with everything.
You can tell he’s rattled, he’s referring to George Osborne as “Gideon”……
He’s painted himself into a corner of self-denial - his piece with the DT was barking, I assume it was a favour.
I’m very suspicious of Mandy’s motives and his king-maker tendencies. In the same way that Cameron/Osborne seem to be thinking 2/3 steps ahead - I just can’t quite put my finger on Mandy’s.
1. Keep Gordon in and *look* loyal whilst actually only benefiting himself and worsening Labour’s chances by propping up an immensely unpopular PM.
2. Playing the conference darling - more *appearance* of rallying the faithful but overshadowing Mr Darling in the process.
3. That strange bit of legislature which would allow him to become an MP again [put forward, withdrawn, floated again IIRC]
Everything Gordon does is tactically inept - who is advising him?
332 If he is clean of new Labour’s deceit and corruption then he would be difficult for Cameron to deal with, there is no doubt about that. However his policies can’t copy Brown’s stealth taxes or big spending so he would truly have to reinvent Labour. The task is mammoth but if he could manage that he has the charisma to connect.
336. There will be the usual labour spin on any figures, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some unpleasant facts dissappeared from the budget.
335-That didn’t prevent Labour of choosing Brown.
336 - And his growth figures.
309. - “It’s not as if the cabinet is overflowing with talent from which to pick alternatives - who would they select instead?”
NPMP?
Betting opportunities?
Well, for those wondering how many Constituencies there are where a straight Labour-SNP swing could let a Tory candidate in, the answer is just three: Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire (so you can see why this line of attack might have added piquancy for Jim Murphy) and Stirling. So unless Labour are only campaigning in three constituencies, for most voters, the line is a bald-faced lie: even in other seats where the Tories came second in 2005, the Labour-SNP swing required for Labour to lose the seat to anyone would see the SNP overtake the Tories.
http://macnumpty.blogspot.com/2009/10/return-of-tory-stick.html
331 weathercock.”Wrong again !” I may have that engraved on my tombstone.
Well how about saving your pennies and Laying me 9.6 to £40 that AJ is not the next PRIME MINISTER ?
Go to Betfair if you know the way and navigate via Cabinet Specials and Next Prime Minister.
I will be there waiting for you, wearing a bright red rosette.
347 - True, but I think the borrowing figures will be the bigger headline.
324. Goupillon
To be honest I don’t care really as they will not be doing what they should which is repaying all the excess over and above what they would have received using RPI based ACA increases instead of the massive hike they reprehensibly voted themselves in 2001 and the tax exemptions they voted themselves in 2003.
Now they are not going to do that (and IIRC none of the parties are calling for it) so whatever they are doing doesn’t stack up for me.
Now either you want to play silly politics games (is your suggestion judged percentage wise or in real terms [sic]?) about who was ‘naughtiest’ or you do what is right. At the moment it sounds to me like you want to do the former and so does Parliament……..
There are times when the best interests of our political system supercede petty political point scoring. Parliament needs to make good for its collective abuse of its privileges.
330. That’s largely missing the point. The amounts aren’t nearly as important as the details.
One of the most memorable scandals in the first round was one of the smallest: Jacqui Smith’s husband’s porn bill.
Not sure if this has been noted, but I note there was another BPIX poll in the MoS;
Con 43% Lab 29% Lib-Dem 16%
Taxi For Nick Clegg?
13 - ‘SNP will let English keep military bases’ — No doubt they would want to charge for them. Do they think we are fools? Don’t answer that one.
Would an independent Scotland be non aligned, neutral? A member of NATO ?
Would an ‘independent’ Scotland be happy still relying on England for its defence?
Let an independent Scotland pay for its own defence kits own air sea rescue or let the USA pay for US bases to plug any gaps in NATO air defence.
‘Independent’ ? Don’t make me laugh. That’s why there is no majority in Scotland for independence.
PS - what about all the farmed out GB wide agencies and govt depts in Scotland? How will all those lost jobs be filled?
Dickinson - its self evident that when you announce bringing the change in retirement age forward to 2023 it only takes effect in 2023 - thats not rocket science and thats not the point. the scale of our debt is enormous and getting it down will have to be relentless and determined over a long period of time. One good thing about an independent Scotland would be that a big chunk of JGBs GB debt would be palmed off to Scotland whose weak and useless economy would be unable to pay it back.
“Harman. She has a fine moral claim as the current deputy ” — she is only deputy leader of the labour party for which there was a seperate election. Its not as if she came second to Gordon. Lots of plausible alternative leaders did not stand against Brown. There is no sort of ‘moral’ imperative to a coronation of Harman.
As a young man, Alistair Darling was a member of the International Marxist Group, which favoured the killing of British citizens and the violent overthrow of democracy.
He has just about got away with this by being the dour reliable superbly boring Chancellor who at least seems more honest than Gordon (not hard).
I imagine his colourful CV would, however, come under much nastier examination if he became prime minister. Indeed I doubt he would survive the attention. How could Labour use Cameron’s posh past when their own prime minister was a one time IRA-supporting communist?
Moreover, Darling is a serial flipper. He’s soiled. He won’t get the job.
The more I think about it, the more I reckon Harman will accede to the leadership - but after the election. She’ll get some Blairite as a deputy to make up a dream ticket.
Harman won’t mind the fact she will probably never be PM in that situation. Her scheming ambition will be satisfied by her being the first ever female leader of Labour.
Remember that if Brown does eye his way out that there is little time for a leadership election. As recently as June I was very much in favour of a leadership contest where much like the Tories ones the candidates can set out their stalls and engage with the public.
Now there simply isn’t time. Rival camps competing against each other are a distraction against the real enemy. So, unless a leader can be chosen in a back room (Straw? Darling?) it’ll be Harriet.
The electorate still likes shrill women full of themselves? I remember they were once taken with one such example….?
337 It is a difficult trick to pull — but politicians have pulled off bigger tricks before.
It probably needs Harman on side. And it probably needs a leadership election (perhaps choreographed).
Cruddas (PM) + Harman (Deputy PM) run a joint ticket (Cruddas’ wife works in Harman’s office). There is a leadership election and, say Milliband & Johnson contest. Cruddas and Harman win — after all, they were 1st and 2nd in Deputy PM election. So, it is no great effort to believe they could beat these people again.
Then the answers to your questions: “what, so seriosuly this guy with no experience in government is a better leader than you Ms Harman/Mr Johnson/Mr Straw/Mr Banana? And you are 100% behind his vision of *insert 180 turn from what you said last week here
are:
“We are a democratic party, we held a proper election and Jon Cruddas and Harriet Harman won. Of course, Jon has his own vision and style, and naturally there are changes in policy. We all agreed that mistakes were made in the last 10 years on economic matters. As George Osborne has said, we are all in this together, and that is because we all made the same mistakes together. Here are our suggestions for coping with the difficult times ahead … blah blah blah …”
339 it might be a better strategy post-defeat. pre-defeat they are saying ‘we were wrong about everything’ and then they lose anyway.
Its a tough one. I find myself torn on what I think is best and whether I think its best for partisan reasons. I also wonder at times just wich partisan reasons I am leaning from. On the one hand I have waited a long time to get rid of New Labour, on the other hand in truth the Tory conference left me feeling rather cold and I can’t muster the energy to be particularly enthused this week. I thought that would swiftly pass, however the fact I find myself being more and more verbose convinces me I am getting less and less convinced.
Maybe I have cold feet, but right now I couldn’t 100% guarantee I would vote Tory.
That was enjoaybly cathartic.
Guido’s take on the latest MP’s expenses:
Tory grandees will be asked to repay claims for their stately homes, Nick Clegg will have to justify his serial refurbishment of home(s) at our expense, Gordon Brown will have to justify and probably repay his claims for a Sky Sports subscription and did we really need to pay to have his shirts ironed?
????
358 - That simply wouldn’t work.
Labour missed their window of opportunity to get in a younger leader, just as Dave was making the most of it. Now ‘no time for a novice’ would play badly against Labour making Cameron practically look like an elder statesman.
359. Get a grip man! What are you saying??
We all have our doubts about the ponceybooty lordlings of the New Tories.
But voting Tory is the ONLY GUARANTEED WAY TO MAKE SURE NEW LABOUR ARE CONSIGNED TO HELL FOR TEN YEARS MINIMUM
It’s that simple. Unless you vote Tory, you risk another term of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister of this country, with Peter Mandelson and Harriet Harman and Bob Ainsworth and Yvette Cooper and all the rest of them STILL creaming off their enormous salaries as they swank around in their big fat limousines. Ed Balls as Chancellor. Grinning. Think about it.
Exactly. Now have a cold shower and go for a brisk walk.
Chris Grayling on the Politics Show.
354 Con 43% Lab 29% Lib-Dem 16%
Baxter has the LibDems on 28 seats….
361 Why not?
The difficulty is probably getting Harriet on side. But JC+HH could certainly win a leadership election. And the rest is plain sialing
I think the trick of ensuring that the Tories got some of the blame for economic mismanagement would work. “We are all in thsi together, we all made the same mistakes together.” Just like Iraq, the argument is that the Tories did not object at the time!
Make no mistake, I think Cameron will still win — but this way no landslide.
The odious Cooper has been on SKY to say she has not noticed brown eyeing her up in any funny sort of way. Not surprised really.
363. Incidentally, old boy, you’d better not be scurrying off to soi 6 on Election Day next year.
360 I agree it’s a rash party that tries to claim it’s whiter than the rest on the expenses issues. A while ago on the 19th September I picked up on a comment by Mike: “like all parties a lot of local campaigning is funded by councillors passing over a proportion of their allowances”. Now this was a throw-away remark, made in a matter-of-fact way as if no-one would think it wrong. As Mike hinted it may well be a practice used by all the main parties, but the LibDems are particularly notorious for claiming all the allowances available and then siphoning off some of this to finance political activities. The four hundred pounds (without receipts) a month for food is a good example, which seemed to discomfort Ming Campbell on QT. And didn’t Clegg, himself, boast about claiming the maximum travel allowance as an MEP and then taking cut-price Ryanair flights, the difference being pocketed and donated to his party funds. It’s not good enough to claim that there was no personal gain - although, arguably, using the money to keep yourself in a lucrative elected office is a personal advantage – it is a misuse of tax-payers’ money.
360 - Nah he’s guessing. I doubt very much that the ‘revelations’ will be about things within, but outside the spirit of, the rules.
They will be about genuine potential breaches/overclaiming without receipts.
366. Harman would never submit to being Cruddas’s deputy. Indeed I don’t think she’d agree to being the underling to any other present Labour politician - cause she thinks (understandably) that she’s got more cullions and nous than the rest of them put together.
Harman as leader with Cruddas as deputy would be more likely. But that would be too leftwing.
Harman as leader with Ed Miliband as deputy: that might work.
OK now I gotta go revise a thriller.
367 What???????????????
#355. Would an ‘independent’ Scotland be happy still relying on England for its defence?
Yes, I’m sure that they would have to immediately have to ask England for help with defense from Vikings who would come from rampaging from Norway…
Lord, can’t unionists come up with some SENSIBLE arguments?
363 yes, I know. New Labour have to be brought down. Having said that, my seat is safe Tory so my vote would make little difference.
Cold shower maybe. Put it this way though, if Bryan Gould had won the leadership in 1992, I’d have joined the Labour party
355. Trevor, same old bile , you cannot get over your petty hatred of Scotland. The jobs you mention will be replaced with all the jobs that are currently done in England. Maybe just for fun we will rent out the bases to the Russians , that would put the cat among the pigeons.
366 Gwynfa.If you hurry you can still obtain 85.0 Cruddas Next PM. I took 95.0 for £2 whilst you lot were witttering on .
“Wrong again !” as weathercock would say.
On the Labour leadership debate it seems to me that one name that hasn’t come up is Yvette Cooper.
Now I realise the combination of horror and hilarity that might cause (and I sympathise with it) but think about it.
Cooper could be the Brownite candidate. She doesn’t have anywhere near the baggage that her husband does (and she is senior to him as an MP). She has a reasonable background (daddy was a TU leader, she worked for the Clintons) and she has a high profile position and a number of roles in Government behind her. From the female side of the party, other than Harman, she is probably the most senior potential candidate?
If people could consider Jacqui Smith as they once did on here then…….?
376 - Cooper is an interesting proposition. I think she could get to the top, but I don’t think she could make Labour electable.
366 Cruddas simply won’t become leader before the general election. The public have absolutely no idea who he is, and he would be soundly beaten, his only chance is after a New Labour meltdown.
341 - I can never understand why Mr Cruddas gets touted as a great thinker. Whenever I’ve seen him interviewed, he waffles on that what the Labour leadership are doing to compete with the Conservatives isn’t working, but never offers a new gameplan.
377. James , hard to believe, she is useless. If that is labour’s future then the Conservatives will be in power for a very very long time.
376 - People only considered Jacqui Smith because they didn’t know anything about her and she sounded reasonably competent during her first few days in the job.
377 The Biker Mouse from Salford would have been a good bet had she not muffed up on expenses.
Wonder what Harman’s reaction would be if Cooper got it?
That, a as a general point, is the unknown factor in all this-how will losing factions react?
If we take all the themes of today - lower majority prompting a challenge for self-preservation, hatred of the current regime and ‘big beast’ with cabinet experience and record of criticising then I give you your challenger….
Charles Clarke.
377/380. I don’t see her making Labour electable again but then I don’t see any of them doing that. IMO they like the Conservatives before them in 1997/2001 haven’t got anybody but on current form of those discussed she is no worse than any of the others and probably a lot more credible than some of them (particularly the likes of the Big Banana).
383 On the basis of Harman’s earlier railing that there needs to be a gender-split between Leader and Deputy - then Hapless Harriet would be stuffed by Cooper being Labour leader, wouldn’t she?
384 - He is going to lose his seat at the next election. Plus he is a Blarite ultra so will annoy half the party.
Afternoon all.
Although SPIN’s ‘Brown and Out’ market has moved somewhat in the direction of Brown going early, the Seats market has moved a notch against Labour. Conventional wisdom has it that it should be the other way round - which suggests to me there is not a lot of money being punted on an early departure.
386 - I would imagine that if there is a man as leader there has to be a woman but that doesn’t hold if there is a woman. That is the lunacy of Harmanworld.
379. Agreed, there was a new Statesman or Economist interview video and he was so abstract that if the public had seen it, half of them would have thought he was on something……
377 The Biker Mouse from Salford would have been a good bet had she not muffed up on expenses.
by Dyed in some wool somewhere October 11th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
I can’t go back to Salford
The tabloids got me smeared
Enter The Dragon Lady
Exit Hazel Blears.
With acknowledgements to Johnny Clarke…obviously.
376 jsfl
The Brownites are dead and utterly discredited.
Ed Balls will be cast asunder, his desiccated political carcass cast perfidiously to the marauding vultures and hyena.
As they bay malevolently, his aduration of lament will lie cruelly unheeded. Well might he beat his breast and beg for penitence - though penitence shall he find none. His cry of woe and melancholy will rend the earth and the heavens; yet atonement shall he find none.
He weepeth sore in the night, and his tears are on his cheeks: among all his lovers he hath none to comfort him: all his friends have dealt treacherously with him, they are become his enemies.
375 I think that post earlier rather ignores the huge vindication of a political career becoming PM is. Even if it is for only 1 day and you get massacred at the polls you’ve still done what thousands of your peers tried and couldn’t and made it to the top. That outweighs everything.
360. No mention of the circa £55,000 Osborne inheritance tax payback that the Lib Dems say he owes then? We’re all in sh*t together…
197 187-The Euro polls (usual warning) had C39, L 35, LD 19.
Eh? Explain please. Don’t you mean Labour achived 25% pro rata, NOT 35%? Your point being ……?
At Betfair you can 15 on Ed Balls as next Chancellor and 38 for Hilary Benn.
Pretty good odds I think considering what might happen between Darling and Brown in the run up to the PBR.
I’m surprised Hilary Benn isn’t spoken more of, he’s always seemed reasonably competant and a reasonably normal human being.
390 Maybe but if you are trying to recreate the philosophy for a party (hopefully not based on porky pies this time) then general theories and assertions are a good place to start.
387 all reasons making it more likely he would challenge. I didn’t say he would be a good choice.
394 “that the Lib Dems say he owes”
There’s your problem right there. Let’s see if any of the grown-ups say he owes it, eh?
392. Wibbler
And verily there endeth the lesson……..
I agree for the most part. However, the Brownites will still hold considerable sway in the party (they will still know where the bodies are buried)and IMO they will try to promote their cause. Now agreed they are totally discredited but other than through marriage how closely is Cooper generally associated with them?
It seems to me that Cooper has generally avoided the worst of the association so far (it being aimed at Ed Balls, McBride, Watson and perhaps Byrne etc.)
I think the question is how much is Cooper her own woman and whether the taint of Brown really has attached to her?
394. Inheritance tax? Do HMRC know and which relative of George Osborne would that be who has died leaving this tax liability apparently unpaid?
We will have to see what Purnell’s letter says tomorrow, but if he survives that sizeable hurdle, then he has his flag firmly planted on the moral high ground in any leadership bid. Plus he has a safe seat.
Labour will torment itself with “if only” scenarios around the events of this June. If only Miliband had grown a spine… If only the Cabinet names had walked out together… If only….
Labour minister on Midlands Politics Show
“We are spending less than last year. Some people might call that a cut, but I don’t”
394 Paul Lloyd - Even if that were the case (and it appears that it is not), it is of no interest to the Legg investigation, which is about whether claims were valid under the Commons expenses rules. So don’t expect anything on that front.
401 I think the Lib Dems are talking about CGT from when he changed the property designation.
Sorry that was my fault - I meant Capital Gains Tax - my poor little Lib Dem head gets all confused with these rich men’s taxes that i will never get to pay
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6293282/MPs-expenses-325-MPs-told-to-pay-up-or-explain.html
I am looking forward to next spring’s Bonfire of the Brownites.
Perhaps a literal one.
Poor old Labour, they have so much chaff to remove. Get rid of Cooper, Balls, Brown, Alexander, Burnham, Harman, the Milibands and you’d be getting somewhere.
Bungler Bob is growing on me, always liked Denham, Johnson is OK but not leader material, Darling is fine, they have the kernel of an effective cabinet. They are out of time though.
402 It should be safe but with Brown as Leader you don’t know. It is not as hard core as the Miliband brothers seats. A 12% swing would see Purnell out IIRC.
403. I’m sure it’s an efficiency saving. Only Tories make cuts…
364 wibbler - the the Politics Show worth watching?
406 Of course, if you got off your arse, took some risks, built up a business, then you might have to worry about CGT and IHT. But your scorn for those people who do - and who will grow us out of our economic woes - is noted.
273. I thought that our culture was Christian and therefore endlessly and bitterly accusing is not our style.
The real problem with Michal Kasinski is that he declares open support for the Lisbon Treaty. See Iain Dale interview two days ago.
Yet all Conservatives are contendedly believing the ECR is a ‘not-the-EPP’ anti-Lisbon alliance in the EP. That is why Kaminski is a bad ally. He’s actually on Miliband’s side !
David Davis to make a comeback?
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/132916/Hickey
411 Plato
The Grayling interview was average and pretty boring.
There was a very interesting and actually quite moving interview with Lord Tebbit about terrorism at the end though - but not much use for political betting!
@414:
Grayling did not have a good conference. Maybe Dave’s having second thoughts after his little ’slip of the brain’ over General Sir George Dannatt.
413 its the Euro problem that is at the heart of my current personal dilemma and cold feet. The Tory position is completely nonsensical and frankly quite ‘f’ing irritating.
416 I saw that Eastleigh woman you and tim have mentioned during the conference. Oh Dear God.
Grayling is an opposition politician.
The BPIX poll at 42 is worth a slightly closer look than it’s had on the thread so far - taken Thur/Fri in the middle of the Cameron speech bounce. The Tory figure of 43 is close to ICM, Labour’s of 29 is higher, the LibDems lower. I still think we’ll see the figure settle around 40-30 in a couple of weeks - ‘events’ excepted. How one interprets that lead is another matter, of course. But I wouldn’t have thought it will provoke another leadership frenzy.
409. Punter
The Conservatives were ahead in Purnell’s Stalybridge constituency in 2008 and 2009.
A 9-10% national swing could well see Purnell lose.
416 I thought Cameron name checked Grayling in his speech?
420 would I be correct in saying Nick that there is no way anyone could challenge Brown now if he doesnt want to go?
420 “But I wouldn’t have thought it will provoke another leadership frenzy.”
But at 16%, maybe it will - for Nick Clegg?
422-He did.
The position of the LDs and Labour is no different. Their suporters are predominantly eurosceptic. Yet their political leaders like Clegg and Miliband are federalist in the extreme.
The Tories at least fudge the issue, and they could break either way,once in power. The LDs and Labour OTOH are destined for certain dissatisfaction of their voters.
Incidentally, the LDs who once supported PR now never mention the words. In the PR Euro elections they were sent packing to 4th position. Their vote is mainly from people who actually support other parties such as the Greens.
PR would resolve the imbalance between Britain’s eurosceptic voters with their europhile main parties. There would be a clear majority of eurosceptic parties from all sides in Parliament. That’s why it would never happen….
..unless a minor party offered PR and began to take large numbers of votes from the majors. As James Goldsmiths’ Referendum Party stopped the Euro, so too could another minor party spring PR onto the scene, and unravel Britain’s mismatch between voters’ aspirations and the positions of their parties.
423 Wool.I don’t want to be too previous but I’m betting that NPMP’s answer will be YES.
For a little light amusement, did anyone see Miliband on the news this morning?
WTF is that on Miliband’s lip? .
420. NPMP
Although to be fair your predictions haven’t been the best when it comes to UK politics.
How’s the Lab-LD control of Notts CC going?
427 thanks. Pity. Labour are going to die on their feet.
423 Dyed in some wool somewhere
If Brown were to go, it would never be down the ‘official’ route - the Labour party rules are designed to make that as difficult as possible.
It would be because he couldn’t form a working Cabinet, or for his health, or for any number of unofficial reasons.
431 and that won’t happen unless it is a united effort and therefore the succession is decided…. and that won;t happen because too many of them fancy it.
421 Even more than I thought then. TBH It might not be a bad thing for Purnell. If Labour are out for at least 2 terms to have someone else do the hard uphill graft of the first Tory term while he takes a break, and comes back looking fresh when things may just be a bit better in terms of their chances.
Has this been posted before?
“Baroness Scotland ‘to be investigated by legal watchdog over cleaner’”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6298040/Baroness-Scotland-to-be-investigated-by-legal-watchdog-over-cleaner.html
403 - how can anyone take Liebour seriously when they come out with comments like that?
431 I see Peter S on Sky is running with the Gordon may be fine now, but he’s 59 - another 5 yrs - could his health/eyesight decline?
That feels rather like Ming being too old.
406 Of course, if you got off your arse, took some risks, built up a business, then you might have to worry about CGT and IHT. But your scorn for those people who do - and who will grow us out of our economic woes - is noted.
by Marquee Mark October 11th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Well, sorry if you missed the irony, Mark. The business my wife and I started 10 years yesterday (with a Prince’s Trust loan of £1500 and the backing of the New Deal for business) is currently worth over £1m and grew substantially this year despite the recession and saw substantial increases in profit.
The bank praised my wife and I for our good financial management and sensible risk taking. And that was nice to hear, but it is a well known phenomena that successful businessmen like to think that everything was all their own work, but if they’re shrinking it is someone - usually the Govt. - else’s fault. Personally I think that the success is a lot down to our team who work hard and professionally to give our customers the best service we can. People working together make good businesses.
435 they are trying to administer what goes around comes around justice - the whole Blair ‘whole term’ thing revisisted on him - will you serve a full term PM? If not, who will take over?
New tack.
Labour so badly need to be rid of him it is ridiculous, but there are others they also need to lance too, the Blair/Brown baggage.
436 - It’s an unnattractive trait among some Conservative supporters that they think everyone in the private sector must necessarily support them and respect their monopoly on wisdom on matters financial.
434 Ah so Guido has been at it again.
After all my bigging up of Cruddas earlier I had a good read of his compass article and it frankly doesn’t look great. Philosophically he says largely the right things, but once he gets on to the compass prescription it becomes the same old shopping list of more of this and more of that. His focus should not be on more, his focus should be on more effective. Anyway here is the article. http://www.compassonline.org.uk/news/item.asp?n=5427
420 the BPIX poll was taken around same time as the BPIX poll published in the Daily Mail (according to Anthony Wells) - if so it just shows how sample variation affects top line figures. Two polls, same pollster, same time period
43:29:16 v 42:28:20
as its BPIX we of course have no idea if there is any other cause in variation as detail isn’t available. I
Same thing with YouGov - the final tracking poll and the poll published in the Sun yesterday were done around same time (possibly a few hours difference)
44:27:17 v 42:28:19
So Conservatives somewhere between 42 & 44, Lab 27 & 29 and LDs 16 & 20 in four polls sampled from YouGov universe by YouGov across a short period - so 43:28:18?
440 Voreas. “His focus should not be on more, his focus should be on more effective.” This seems to be the ideological hurdle the left seems unable to jump.
436. CGT will be paid when you are older, less healthy, unable to continue working so hard and need to secure your future and that of your kids’, maybe at a time when your business has gone into decline. While you’re young, healthy and energetic, it all seems so far away…but these are still the only two certainties in life - death and taxes. Why let the government make the hard parts of family life even harder? You’ve worked for what is yours. The government should back off.
395-Maybe lost in translations omewhere….
These were 1984 Euro election results. Someone asked what a 1984 GE would have looked like.
420 Nick P
How convenient that you pick out the one pollster that we cannot take a slightly closer look than it’s had as OGH reminds us regularly BPIX don’t publish the detail of their polls.
Of course we do know they are supported in their polling on occasion by Yougov (who must be raking it in right now!) and as such do not seem to take likelihood to vote into consideration. Consequently, it is likely that that has caused the variance between them and ICM who do consider it.
What does all this mean? Well it seems to me that it just says once again that Labour voters can’t be bothered to turnout for the Brown rabble and who can blame them?
OMG Shane Greer looks about 15 yrs old on Sky!
438. Fair enougn alex, but Paul and his wife likely will have to pay those “rich men’s taxes that i will never get to pay”, such as CGT when they retire.
Tories simply want people like Paul and his wife to keep what they’ve built up by their own hard work.
An updated list of Conservative MP’s standing down and associated matters from Conhome:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/10/the-tory-mps-already-standing-down-and-those-that-may-yet-join-them.html
436 Paul, excuse me - but there were no discernible outward indications of your “irony”….
And I hope you have an accountant who knows about CGT and IHT…or your million pound business risks going down the tubes with you at the helm!
There was a deafening silence at all the conferences, though, about supporting wealth creators. I think Cameron mentioned it in passing in his speech, but otherwise it doesn’t seem to have registered that along with cuts and raised taxes, growing businesses is the third leg of how you get out of the hole we are in.
Anybody who watched Micro Men would have been dismayed to read over the ned credits that the inventors at the heart of Acorn Computers - to be honest, more like Acorn Antiques in their shambolic efforts - created a chip which is now in virtually every mobile phone on the planet. We just don’t give the support - and admiration - to up-and-coming businesses that they deserve.
440 - All this rhetoric about the Tories being ‘nasty extremists’. He never uses this language in interviews. Is this what Labour people actually believe, or is he just trying to nurture hate as a motivational force?
New thread - on the sex divide!
450 I imagine he is concerned with trying to stop the BNP eating into his vote in D & R. Polarising the debate between Labour and Conservative may achieve that.
As someone who only has one good eye myself, the idea this is going to lead to Brown standing down is pure stupidity. I’m no fan of Gordon Brown, but this will not lead to him standing down, anyone putting money on it on the basis of this is throwing their money down the drain.
Possible scenario: Monday 9 November, 4 weeks hence, Harman, for it is she with the cullions, requests a private meeting with Brown, to tell him that he has failed the party and the Country during his Premiership and calling on him to resign forthwith on account of ill health, i.e. deteriorating eyesight and that should he not agree to do so, she and five other unnamed Cabinet ministers will resign that day.
She has each of their signed letters in her handbag. Probably 4 of the 5 are of junior rank, but the clincher is the signature of Alastair Darling who is intent on resigning in any event, but would prefer if possible to force Brown out as revenge for having had his draft PBR rubbished by both the Prime Minister and Ed Balls, who together insist on a complete re-write.
The deal on offer is that as deputy leader of the party she would logically take over in the short term, thereby avoiding a bloody and damaging contest just before the GE.
This would give her invaluable “first mover advantage”, as well as lessening opposition from rivals if necessary by proposing an earlier, say i.e. March 2010, General Election whilst committing herself publicly to an orderly Leadership contest immediately thereafter (unless Labour were to win of course).
Labour then go on to lose the GE, but hold onto 240 seats, with the Tories scraping home with a tiny overall majority of 10 seats and she is lauded as having saved the party and is re-elected leader, unopposed.
Were her plan to fail, Darling would then proceed to resign anyway, delivering a Howe type speech to the HoC, which might well result in further resignations from the Cabinet and Brown’s resulting departure.
Remember folks, you read it here first!
454. Is the handbag Prada?
455 No, Pravda and that’s the truth.