Is Mandelson about to switch from Brown to Miliband (D)?
October 20th, 2009
What do we think of HenryG’s tip?
The overnight thread has been dominated by a comment by the usually well-informed HenryG that could have an important bearing on the Labour leadership.
He wrote simply: “..I’m hearing that Mandelson could be about to shift support away from Brown into David Miliband’s direction. Not sure how that is going to manifest, or when or if it’s just whispers that do the rounds.“
Make of this what you will. Henry has set it out straightforwardly with the appropriate caveats and there’s little doubt that Brown’s handling of latest phase of the MP expenses saga has not won him any friends. For a leader to be heckled at a PLP meeting, as was reported to have happened last week, is almost unprecedented.
Mandelson will play a key and possibly the pivotal role in Labour’s succession. He was the one who kept the ship afloat after the June 4th electoral disasters and the Purnell resignation but there was always a temporary feel about what the outcome.
As for David Miliband he has been having a good few weeks without the vagueness and uncertainty that seemed to characterise his approach a year ago. He’s also learned not be be photographed holding a banana!
William Hill and Ladbrokes have Miliband at 7/1. Victor Chandler
at 13/2 while
The current Labour betting favourite, Alan Johnson, now seems totally out of it.
With so many changes of mood the bookies must be loving this.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
The problem for Labour is that they have got into saviour mentality. What I mean by that is that they are investing so much hope in the concept that one man/woman will make the difference that they are forgetting that it is a team effort and so are no longer pulling on the rope at all let alone all pulling in the same direction. Miliband will not make a difference in this climate, nobody will. Added to that the fact that D Miliband is ponderous and gives every impression of never having got beyond teenaged nerdery and it doesn’t make for a happy possibility for Labour.
Also I would dispute that he has had a good few weeks.
It’s the economy. Miliband won’t help.
Millipede? Just listen to him for 5 seconds and you know he’s a sixth form nerd. Does anyone outside the Westminster Village rate him in any way whatsoever?
I notice GB is edging him out of the Copenhagen jamboree. The plus side, as everything GB touches turns to mud (the reverse Midas touch), we will see a Copenhagen “failure”.
3. HenryG’s tips on Labour tend to be very sound, and he is always worth listening to - but if this is true, it’s a horrible mistep by the DPM.
I’ve said it before - even if Mandelson goes to his side, David Miliband no longer has the confidence of even his most ardent supporters a few months ago. The sheer sense of disappointment and betrayal at not removing Brown before now has left them with a dirty taste in their mouths. Many of them hurt themselves by being known to be his supporters, and he risked precisely nothing.
He didn’t challenge Brown in the leadership, didn’t move to oust Brown at Conference September 2008, didn’t capitalise on Purnell’s resignation (which would have been fatal) in June 2009. Three times he could have made a move, three times he bottled it.
Mandelson is, I suspect, too bright to back a dead horse. Straw for consensus grey-beard, AJ if anyone still believes in him, or at the outside maybe some other fresh face if that is required (Ed Milliband, Burham whoever), but if he tries to push the Foreign Sec (as a means to get the FCO job for himself?) the PLP won’t resist as much as shrug and start buying cyanide by the bulk.
Better to keep Brown than seek to annoint Miliband - maybe suggest Brown demote DM, knowing that he has no base to challenge any more. If what he wants is the FCO, there are better ways.
Miliband is quite obviously the EU’s chosen heir apparent.
They will try to launch him a few months prior to the election, possibly, rig a number of polls/announcements to show a narrowing Tory lead, and then rig the actual British general election, as they did the Irish Referendum result, and Glenrothes East.
It’s so much easier to hide electoral malpractice than to assassinate opponents. No one’s on to them for some reason, even this site which seems odd. Take the Irish referendum turnout figure at near 60%. Does Mike Smithson not have a comment about that?
What Morus said @ 5
Someone who failed repeatedly to show that he had the guts, is never going to get it. Ditto Alan Johnson.
Its difficult to see anyone beating Hattie, she will even chew up Mandy and spit him out.
5. Tapestry, old bean, I don’t get your point.
Has Brown not been steadfast in preventing a referendum on Lisbon? Why would Milliband be prefereable from an EU/Bilderburg perspective.
Wouldn’t destabilising him just bring about the chance of an earlier GE, and the chance of Cameron kyboshing the Treaty before Klaus signs?
And why do you think the 2nd Irish referendum was rigged? It shouldn’t have happened, and I think the scaremongering and corporate pressure (from Intel etc) was pushing the lines of acceptability, but you honestly think there was any public appetite there to say no twice? And if they are powerful enough, wouldn’t they have rigged the first one, which was actually close?
I am only a mild Euroskeptic (except for the “Brussels Delenda Est” sig line I carry on Daily Kos to irk the European progressives!), but do you honestly see the hidden hand of the EU in *everything*? And doesn’t that sort of CT just undermine the moderate and sensible arguments against the bad aspects of the EU?
But surely D.Milliband would not be acceptable to much of the Labour Party - he is too Blairite. It is though of course very clear that Milliband is the choice of the chattering classes - see Sylvester in the Times this morning(yet again) and of course people like Marr. For myself I struggle to see why Cameron should be in the slightetst bit woried by David or Ed - or come to that the fast sinking Alan Johnson.
To ask a genuinely obtuse question, why will Mandelson have so much power in a post-defeat Labour Party? I’m not disputing it but why would anyone in the PLP and/or the unions have cause to fear him? Or - unless it’s a relatively gentle 30-seat smackdown - why would anyone believe he can lead them back to Downing Street?
7. Morus: Tapestry is a known nutter.
And I say that as an arch-Tory and eurosceptic myself!
8 - Peter that’s why I’ve gone back to my stand of 12-18 months ago and think it has to be Straw.
You can’t hate Straw. He’s sensible, he’s experienced, but even though he was involved heavily in the Iraq decision as Foreign Sec, he never attracts the bile of a Brown or a Mandelson or a Balls. I wouldn’t like to have to run against Straw - not saying that Labour would suddenly recover, but I would feel far less at ease, were I Cameron, at having to face Jack Straw.
How exactly do you attack him, compared to Brown’s perceived weaknesses on personality or the economy? Straw doesn’t have to be the shining new hope - just needs to take the sting of righteous vitriol off the Conservatives, and I think he could do that. Get it down to 7-8 points, and pray.
After reading Tapestry’s post @5, I’d like to suggest this as the new EU anthem, to replace Ode To Joy or whatever it is they tried to put in the consitution that got voted down by the French.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBav72i7I3s
Lets see how Straw does on the big stage on Thursday night. I can see his appeal - its similar to Johnson in that he is a real man. Cameron looks made up and plastic, Clegg is a vaguely-coherent retread from the same mould. If Labour mush Millibean then we get all 3 party leaders chosen because they have an easy smile and are good at mouthing hollow platitudes.
Do we really want that as the future of politics - the only electable leaders are vacuous?
7. I see people accepting nonsense as fact.
People are terrified of thinking beyond what they are told to think.
Just take the turnout figures for the Irish Referendum No 2.
The evidence of poll rigging there.
The evidence of Glenrothes East where the records all disappeared.
What genuinely puzzles me is why no one is even interested.
I guess they are worried about standing out from the crowd even for 20 seconds. If that makes one a ‘nutter’, Casino, I am proud so to be.
They say that in business there are no stupid questions. Because it’s so important to get things right. It appears that in politics, there are very few permitted questions. That must be because power doesn’t matter, I take it.
13-Don’t think Millipede has an easy smile. He looks like a geek. He acts like one too.
14 - I am as skeptical and open-minded as they come, Tapestry - I just don’t see the sense in what you are suggesting.
Glenrothes was fishy - and it was Mike Smithson who broke that story and did more to uncover it that anyone else. But why would my mind jump to Brussels meddling? You don’t think that EU stooges might have stood out in uplands of Scotland? Why not accept that there can be good old BRitish shenanigans too?
I don’t see anythign strange about the 2nd Irish referendum - not even the turnout. And again - why cheat on the second when it would have been easier and safer to cheat on the first?
There are plenty of stupid questions in business, and plenty in politics. Asking whether the EU has concocted a mass conspiracy isn’t one f them, but being determined to see it in absence of proof does discredit to the eurosceptic cause. Extraordinary claims need extraordinary proof. Unless you caught Giscard D’Estaing faking a Dublin accent, drinking Guinness, and writing out extra ballots, I really don’t think you’ve nailed this one.
NJ Gov Race
A new Monmouth University poll :
Christie 39 (-4)
Corzine 39 (-1)
Daggett 14 (+6)
Don’t Know 7 (-1)
Last poll was 9/24-29
1,004 likely voters, October 15 to 18; MoE +/- 3.1 percent.
…Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray…
“Democrats who flirted with Chris Christie earlier in the year have come back into the fold. It also looks like some GOP voters may have become disenchanted with their white knight. That’s not a good sign for the Republican at this late stage of the game”
One criticism Christie has faced from both opponents is that he hasn’t been specific enough about his budget proposals. It bears out somewhat in the numbers, as only 18 percent of voters say Christie has given a “clear” idea of his plans. That’s nearly half as many as those who say Corzine has been clear on his plans for a second term. For the first time, voters lean toward Corzine, though by just a point, on who they’d trust most to handle the state budget. Corzine has also pulled to within one point of Christie on who would best handle jobs and the economy.
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/10/20/monmouth-n-j-poll-warning-signs-for-christie/
Am I the only one here actually BETTING on this race?
What about you, PUNTER? Any money running on it?
The Election is in 2 weeks.
17 - Phillipe, I’m not allowed to bet in NYC because of the Federal Wire Act, but all the value is with Corzine.
Firstly, NJ voters always do this “we’re going to vote GOP….oh, fooled you again”: this time was more extreme because of the circumstances, biut same story.
Add to that Corzine’s adverts, Christie’s goofs, and the entry of Daggett (a really good Indy, who is no-one’s stooge, but is exactly what Corzine needs to split the anti-incumbant vote).
Just don’t see Corzine losing this one. Victory by 3 or 4 points I reckon.
My boiler broke the other day. It was clearly damaged by the EU to force me to call out a plumber and buy a new one, thereby stimulating the economy to keep their stooge Brown in place.
18 — “Victory by 3 or 4 points I reckon.”
I certainly hope so, Morus, for my wallet’s sake!
My money was on Corzine early on — in August and for the best part of September–at about 6/4. However, seeing that my predictions about a consolidation of the Democratic base into the Corzine fold, and a diminution of Christie’s support due to a massive TV propaganda fueled by the governor’s huge bankroll, failed to actualise, I foolishly flip-flopped to Christie, assuming a loss of about 1,250 USD.
However, I was quick to come back to betting on Corzine… My stakes are a lil’ too high for me to be comfortable now… So I really can’t wait for this to be ovah…
I’m counting on postal voting “irregularities” ad a massive GOTV operation.
I just hope the governor will refrain from repeating that he’ll be “happy to raise taxes”…
Corzine, Corzine!
Stars and Stripes will wept!
Perhaps Brown’s (last) 50 days is the clue?
I can’t see Miliband as PM. He always looks as though he should be in short trousers, and has been dreadful as Foreign Secretary.
I’m with Morus on the Jack Straw scenario. I have been for a very long time (there is a post maybe 18 months back where I had an imagined speech from caretaker PM Jack Straw outside No. 10, thanking Gordon for being a great public servant and how tragic it was that he’d had to stand down on health grounds….).
Labour needs to work out what it is for. It needs some space to achieve that. It can only do that when it sees where it has got to under Brown, but more importantly, under Blair.
It’s core business model is built on a discredited notion. The big state it promotes cannot be afforded. Labour needs to come up with a means of delivering a caring soceity on the cheap and without an intrusive state apparatus. That will not be easy to find. They may need several leaders to achieve it. If Miliband is to be one of those leaders, he needs to show a damn sight more gumption than he has to date.
Mandelson won’t do anything to destabilise the leadership until Lisbon is ratified. That’s Dan Hannan’s theory and I think he’s right.
When Milliband was appointed Foreign Secretary some wag on here said he ‘looked like a pillock on his gap year’. Nearly two years later, he’s not managed to grow the gap-year-student’s trademark goatee beard but he’s still looks just as bad.
I made a few comments on this towards the end of last night’s thread.
If Henry G is right that Brown’s survival chances are just 25% then David Miliband at 7/1 is a cracking bet. If his brother Ed backs him then he looks pretty unstoppable to me.
Morus refers to the anger some Labour MPs feel for not moving against Brown last June. Well we don’t know what was said and agreed between Mandy and DM at that point. If it turns out that Brown agreed to step down if he failed to turn Labour’s support around decisively and soon, then Miliband may yet be praised for his loyalty. Far better for Brown to step aside than for a bloody coup.
I still think DM is one of Labour’s few remaining good communicators. He would make a positive difference to Labour’s electoral chances.
Betfair and Sportingindex have him around 3-4/1 when I last looked. So 7/1 looks a great bet. Cracking value this side of a General Election but still good after a General Election defeat, in my view.
Nick Palmer’s thoughts would be very welcome.
“No time for a Novice”
If Lisbon is ratified and then Brown is pushed out it will lend credence to the theory that Mandy only came back to prevent an early GE.
16, morus, glenrothes was fair play to them a wonderful media campaign by the media and local press, the same people who run the scotsman, johnston press. their coverage the previous 3 days was on a par with stalin in terms of its fairness and shock tactics.
interview gordon brown, front cover story, support the local fife lad even if he is bit of a plonker and all that. very controlled, and contrived.
westminster issues and gordon brown POLITICS were avoided. it was a hate campaign based on a false story on local health charges with no relevance to westminster that the toothless media wanted to expand.
at elections in scotland labour justs throws all they have against the snp, even if it has no bearing on westminster.
clearly what is devolved and what is not can be blurred on the news and it is not seen as a major problem.
a vote for the snp is of course anti glasgow,(garl) anti protestant, (orange order) anti royal (do snp want monarchy saga)and anti england/britain, (well they must be) it cannot be seen in the media as a positive vote based on actual policies. the message is based on fear, not on fact, but the media is happy to cover it.
in glenrothes, labour and the media ran a scare campaign the snp would charge up to 10 times more for nursing care which was farcical, but the old and impressionable bought it at the last minute.
it appears based on this false premise that some local old age people voted labour en masse at their old folks home, and got help to fill in their ballots. that is not illegal. immoral yes, and it will be more prevalent as what is allowed becomes an increasingly grey area. had the snp done it then would we be saying how clever they were?
the other 4000 votes that suddenly appeared i cannot explain though! were the ballots folded, and uniform in the same handwriting? that is what caused karzai out in kabul. at least they did not lose the votes afterwards as they did in glenrothes!
fear works, that is why labour is still using that same tactic after nigh on 50 years.
having drummed on for 2 years about the failure to bring in 1000 new police, the media is silent now that this matter ahs been achieved. but with crime an issue in glasgow the labour cnadidate gets a word out saying he wants to lock up everyone who carries a knife. he claims to be a local boy, but spends most of his time in london already. does the media call him out on this. in glasgow that would never happen.
with smeaton more than likely pulling the plug as he cannot win, it gives labour and the sun a free run against the snp. smeaton with his newspaper column would have pinched labour votes in my view. so time for a sweetener.
perhaps the sun saying scotland was hanging herself with a noose if they voted for the snp in the election of 2007 sums up the level of filth that the media has descended down.
they do this because it works, at least with some people.
people should be saying in glasgow, the trougher is till troughing at the house of lards, no apology for his disgraceful behaviour, but the media avoids the issue now.
this by election was caused by endemic labour CORRUPTION. and as such the labour party put their CORRUPT lackey into the lords despite his actions.
the by election should be approached by all parties as a protest mandate about expenses thievery, i know the tories are trying, but the scottish media as usual is turning it into an attack on the SNP and its perceived failure to win one of scotland’s safest seats. at a time when the tories and liberals may finish no higher than 4th and will in all likelihood both lose their deposits.
a free beer with every vote and then turnout would shoot well up though!
the quicker all those irish battles from 300 years ago are forgotten in glasgow and people get on with each other despite their different religions the better. they might even fly a scottish flag now and again at soccer grounds rather than one which represents a political statement.
If this is a rumour doing the rounds in Labour circles, let’s not forget the possibility of the rumour starting in the Bunker. Gordon has done that before to smoke them out.
On Topic
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article6881541.ece
It must be sort of true - schoolboy was being measured for a new suit yesterday in Mothercare !
25 25.“No time for a Novice”
Worse than that. A novice is untried, untested. Miliband has already had one of the great Offices of State - and has been crap at the job.
Electorally? He might win over quite a few LibDems - he probably comes over as a better student politician than Clegg. But Cameron has already made his pitch to the voters; they know a fair bit about him and generally have a fair bit of respect for him. Miliband? Who? He is not the Duraglit to buff up Labour’s tarnished chrome.
The most plausible scenario for a change of Labour leader has already been outlined on these pages. Brown continues as Prime Minister until the GE but Labour chooses a new leader to take them into that election.
Brown gets to hold on as long as possible, he gets to stand down with dignity at a time of his choosing, he is feted and rewarded by the Labour Party for putting the party and the country before self interest.
And his successor has legitimacy. “Chosen” by the Labour Party from a short list of the willing and able, and then endorsed or rejected by the public at the GE.
It’s all win/win. Just depends on Brown being “persuaded”.
For me, it’s always been Straw or Hateman, the former more likely before a GE and the latter more so afterwards.
I very much doubt that Brown has ever allowed himself to be be led into a ‘if - then’ trap. He knows only too well that these can have unintended consequences.
Irish Betting Possibility?
http://order-order.com/2009/10/20/irish-speaker-resigns-in-expenses-scandal/#comments
So I guess that there is a similar outbreak of michaelmartinitus, but would he also be kicked upstairs?
My take on this is:
1. Brown will not step down before the GE and no-one can make him (3/1 on)
2. Labour will lose the GE (10/1 on)
3. Brown will step down soon afterwards
4. There will be only about 200+ Labour MPs taking part in the election for new leader, - some new to Westminster, most new to opposition.
5. They will want an experienced leader to regroup around without fracturing. The younger ones with ambition will hold back (again) or lose.
6. The answer has to be - Straw is the next leader of the Labour Party. Strangely he isn’t available in the list of possible next leaders on Betfair (unless my eyesight is failing me)
31. I think the whole thing is another smokescreen. This Barry Sheerman attempting to be chair of the PLP would possibly finish off Brown, if it gets off the ground.
Don’t hold your hopes to high though, the Labour MPs are a bunch of spineless numptys !
35. Straw, the man with the selective amnesia about Council Tax expenese claims.
16. Morus, did you carry out an audit of turnout in Ireland’s referendum 2?
No, presumably.
But your mind is closed to the possibility that others might have done so.
Why?
Turnout was reported as quiet on news channels on the day and these turnout figures were collected as samples
David Miliband appears to have sorted out that top lip shaving problem. A better haircut is the next priority.
Posters here may not rate him but I bet if you asked Cameron who he would choose to fight the General Election against, Brown or David Miliband, he would prefer Brown by a country mile.
39 - For Cameron, Brown is the gift that keeps on giving.
37 It won’t matter much in a new parliament with four or five years to the next election. It will be “old hat” except to the obsessives. I agree it would matter a lot if Straw took over as leader BEFORE the next GE.
32 So let me get this right - Gordon continues to stomp around in his own inimitable style for a few more of those precious months Labour has left. Then, some point just before the elction, Miliband would be suddenly pushed into the glare of the super-trooper, no-one quite sure who he was or what he was going to do and confused as to why he hadn’t become leader sooner.
And this is Labour’s get out of jail card?
Ha ha ha!
Miliband is a joke. At least Brown has some default gravitas by virtue of his age and creased face. Miliband is a total no-mark, can’t even speak propoerly, dropping consonants off the end of words in an excruciating attempt to sound “street”, and he has achieved precisely nothing ever AFAICS apart from posing at an angle with a banana looking a complete tool. He has made no impact as FS, who would take him seriously?
He would be even worse than brown for Labour. So I find this hard to believe.
You will all be delighted to know that I am back in “full throw” and will be providing once again my excellent political intelligence. Top of my agenda are my ever stupendous poll predictions:
Next ICM Con43 Lab28 Lib19
Mikes new poll if it’s done by ICM Con43 Lab27 Lib 19 if it’s done by Kellner “I love Labour” Con 41 Lab30 Lib18
Please bring him on. Won’t help Labour. Simple fact is that if they wanted to change the leader they should have done it a while ago. Any change now will demonstarte they are desperate; will underline they haven’t got an economic “saviour”; will lead to another unelected PM; will show they are panicking; will kill any leader selected when they go down in the election. The fact is that Brown will have to finish the job and take the likely hit and the Labour party will have to re-build properly after they likely loss at the polls in May 2010.
This will be entertaining.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23758372-party-leaders-to-meet-parliamentary-diversity-panel.do
Particularly interesting bits Brown on all women shortlists, Cameron on the white male Public School middleagedness of his crew and Clegg on his 100% white MP issue.
22 Marquee Mark
“Labour needs to come up with a means of delivering a caring soceity on the cheap and without an intrusive state apparatus.”
I wish all parties would have this as their aim… sadly I think that Labour, at least, will never get there. Consider what it is to be a Labour MP. What (I imagine) makes them get up in the morning is precisely this expansion of the public realm over the private. It’s a sacred truth to left-wingers that collective provision is better than individual, and they’re happy to overlook a certain amount of inefficiency to keep this principle. Government knows best. Heavens, if you let everybody do their own thing then some will succeed and some will fail.
If Brown goes before the election surely it has to be Straw. Then the most left-wing platform will win the leadership after the election. Then in perhaps another 10 years or so some centrist who we probably haven’t even heard of yet will bring them kicking and screaming, a la Blair, back into contention.
Running the country is for real not some game. Too many within the Labour Party still have the mindset of students - I knew Straw when he was crawling his way up the greasy poll within the NUS - and their actions within Government have demonstrated this. Talk of changing the leader early in 2010 just perpetuates this immature image.
The real problem is the quality of the people at the top of the party and a woeful lack of calibre within the MPs on which to draw for ministerial appointments. If you devise “Big Government” strategies you need exceptionally capable people to implement them. The government has extremely mediocre people who are just not up to the job. So they start playing games whilst all our livelihoods and futures are put at risk.
I loved the report on Today this morning concerning the parental leave discussions. Proposals for fathers to get up to 8 weeks at 90% pay, funded by the tax payer. Even the biased presenters couldn’t stop a laugh being broadcast
Miliband senior is no novice, he’s been tried and tested and shown to be unfit for the task. A Foreign Secretary so lacking in diplomatic ability that Mandy had to rescue him from the Punjab. And of course let’s not forget the gurning freak show at last years Labour Conference…the list goes on and on.
That’s not to say it won’t happen, but I hear the sound of a barrel being well and truly scraped.
16 Morus et al
I feel that you are being a little hard on Tapestry, as you say there are many unanswered questions. There are also seemingly too many coincidences. A scenario could be:
Mandelson has always had a friend in need when required and often when he became an embarassment. Thus he will never become the leader but always the fixer or consigliere to those in power. He owes too many favours.
He left his job in Europe to save the Labour Party? This does not fit with PM’s objectives. There can be some mileage in that as Brown was visibly on the way out before Lisbon was completed that he was told to return. The price of his return was that he was given unprecedented power in modern times as an unelected Minister and unofficial deputy to GB and also that Brown would do as he was told. However, GB in his usual stubborn and dithering way, failed his objectives.
However, Mandelson continues with his usual round of financial contacts and meetings - Russian oligarchs on yachts, Rothschilds at Mediterranean villas and attends the Bilderberg meeting in Greece 2009. His presence at these events is leaked to the world’s press so that as usual he can be the fall guy.
PM has unexplained wealth to own his home - not a lot in the general view of things and gifts are not taxable. It always pays to keep your fixer in a lifestyle just below that to which he aspires.
As Brown is again failing, then PM will boost schoolboy DM (by speaking in his constituency), just to ensure that up to the election there is no slippage regarding Lisbon and other matters.
If Cameron is elected, then there are clues out there as to what may happen. Remember its all about two things: power and money.
Here’s a curve ball: the recent economic crisis was planned but went a bit too far. Money is now being made on the recovery - but when will the next collapse be allowed??
Only those who have touched the tentacles of those who orchestrate and control world finances (or can read the tea-leaves) may be able to hazard a meanigful guess.
Over to you followers of conspiracy theories.
50 - Yet you are happy to support Cameron and Hague, whose only trip into foreign affairs so far is the shambolic charabanc trip around the extremes of European Politics and diplomatic impotence.
Morus.
‘Glenrothes was fishy’
But all other elections are perfectly valid.
It was a one-off aberration.
No investigation is required, or further thoughts on the matter.
That clears up electoral fraud finally and permanently.
Good.
Allegations by the BNP about turnout numbers not matching votes counted can be ignored. They are racists and were when it was legal, holocaust deniers, and so rigging against them is acceptable.
The heavy preponderance of postal votes in marginal constituencies in 2005 is insignificant.
etc etc etc
how much evidence do you need before the scales drop from your eyes?
maybe a sledge hammer attack as you walk into a polling booth would convince you.
It is the fact that people cannot believe that electoral fraud could already be deciding the result of elections and referendums, that enables the perpetrators to get away with it.
OGH mentioned that Miliband D. has had a good few weeks. Even some of his supporters were dismayed or surprised by his views on terrorism. Is the man free from judgement or is he simply a holy fool?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/17/miliband-terrorism-menzies-campbell
51
Great fiction !
51 - Is there a religious angle to you highly unoriginal theory perchance?
52 – Tim, it would help if you occasionally remember who has been in Government for the past twelve years, then reflect on the stupidity of your assertions.
44 - You know you sound like Ken Livingstone, when you criticise YouGov/Peter Kellner.
I do love our MP’s
“MPs are preparing an attempt to smear the independent auditor who is asking them to pay back thousands of pounds they claimed in expenses”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6377904/MPs-expenses-plot-to-smear-Sir-Thomas-Legg-over-repayment-demands.html
In looking at who will succeed Brown and more importantly when I always hit the rock of obstinacy that is Gordon Brown.
He does not believe he is the weakest link, his desire for multiple debates with Cameron is in large part based on his certainty that he is the serious politician, with knowledge of detail, with strong track record who made the right decisions, and so would wipe the floor with what Ian Bailey above calls the “made up and plastic” Cameron. I just can’t see him folding his tent and going off into the desert of retirement.
David Miliband’s attraction seems to be that he is viewed as Labour’s Cameron (young, presentable, clever and not Gordon) and he would continue the Project (so the Dark Lord likes him). His record in office is mixed, a bit geeky in Environment, not that effective as Foreign Secretary - though the latter is difficult to measure as Gordon has wanted to be seen as the World Statesman so has pinched what limelight is available. He ducked the challenge three times, which doesn’t show much strength of character, the machinations of the No 10 smear factory seem to have frightened him off.
Wayne October 20th, 2009 at 8:26 am
Ah yeah: you’re the guy who predicted a comfortable victory for the YES.
55. Money and power is the foundation of many religions and can usually bring them together - it is called ecumenism until they fall out over the spoils - didn’t you know even that??
It’s 1945 again.
“All we have to do is get rid of Adolf”
“Everyone really loves the Party and all we have done for them; get rid of Adolf and five more years”
“Doenitz would be best”
“No, Josef, it must be Josef”
“Idiots ! Heinrich is our man; the People’s favourite”
“Gott in Himmell ! Duck !”
“Did anyone say Duckhouse ?”
51
You could be right ‘yer know.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/religion/6373674/Jesuss-face-spotted-on-the-toilet-door-in-Ikea-Glasgow.html
When you see this sort of thing, you know the, ‘End of Day’s’ is near.
57.
I think I may have touched a nerve !
Morning all and the thought of Milliband Snr as PM going into a GE is wonderful.
Surely the Labour party must agree with the US and those others who voted James G Brown World Statesman of the Year? No?
Milliband knows nothing about economics and has shown he knows even less about foreign affairs. He puts the light into lightweight. His brother Ed always looks like a schoolboy about to burst into tears because someone has told him he cannot have a new flood defence scheme for his upstairs bathroom.
I loathe the woman but the only person in the cabinet with “balls” is Hattie the Man hater. Alan Jonhson has shown he is not fit for the top job and actually I think he is probably a bit like John Major, too nice for some of the sh1ts who surround/surrounded him.
I also rather like Mr Cruddas and think he would be effective with large sections of the working class public which Labour has alienated but unless some manna like miracle descends from Heaven then for Labour/New Labour it is all too late.
Over the next 10 weeks all most people will be thinking about is what they are going to buy/receive for Christmas presents, especially as the clocks go back this weekend. For the 10 weeks after that they will be worrying about the post-Christmas credit card and heating bills, the dark and probably cold and/or wet mornings so it will not be until early March before most ordinary people will even waken up to the fact that a General Election is imminent.
We Pbers on the other hand will each have worn out an entire wardrobe full of incontinence knickers dealing with the changes in each and every poll and trying not to rise to the bait of Tim and chums as they become ever more desperate to rally the troops in the bunker.
A little reminder from the Telegraph about where not to sit. Warning, one of the pictures could cause a viewer to spill coffee.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/6375398/Unfortunate-juxtapositions-people-photographed-near-amusing-signs.html
However, they forgot Brown and the swastikas.
There are TWO separate Books in operation for Next Labour Leader.
1. Next Labour Leader. This one does what it says on the tin and if you Back the right chap or chapess you go to the bookies and draw.
2. Next Prime Minister. This one comes with a Government Health Warning.If the next PM is David Cameron then you don’t draw anything.You lose !
Naturally there is a huge premium for playing in the NPM market rather than the NPL.
It goes like this…….If you are in the Henry G.Manson camp then proceed immediately to NPM on Betfair where you will obtain prices in the 20s and 30s for D.Milliband and J.Straw.
If on the other hand you are of the David Herdson persuasion, then stick to the NLL where you are guaranteed to win if your fancy duly obliges.
Better a Rubber band than a Milliband.
Can this be the start of the Millpede campaign:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article6881541.ece
64 - Not really
Evidence of Wayne criticising YouGov for Bias: post 44
Evidence of Livingstone criticising YouGov for Bias: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/07/livingstone.boris1
60.
I never, I said NO !
OooooH, it’ll be the horse’s head in the bed next.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6881613.ece
I’m with stjohn on this (24). I suspect the Tories secretly fear David Miliband becoming leader ahead of the GE far more than any of the (much) older alternatives mentioned on here. Only his brother poses anything of a threat among the younger generation. This story may well have an element of truth given the current desperation of the PLP.
The one certaiaty of British politics over the last 2 years is that if all the posters on here had backed with real money their Brown will be replaced by A B or C they would be very much poorer and the bookies holidaying in the Bahamas .
72, Milipede would be worse than Brown. In leadership terms, he’d probably be moderately better. But the public will see Labour playing musical chairs with the premiership, and replacing an abysmal catastrophe of a leader with a pathetic, uninspiring schoolboy of a leader. Labour will, correctly, look like they’re dicking about in a desperate bid to save seats.
51. At least the ‘mob’ (I’m allowed to hit back, presumably!) is stopping to ridicule.
That means they are starting to think.
Eventually the perception of a manipulating overarching power will be mainstream.
But first there is simply incredulity, and fear which expresses as ridicule and only finally turns to acceptance, once enough others are saying it.
By the time they are awake to what is happening, the end result of slavery for all nations could be too late to do anything about.
Unless they get it wrong which they will at some point as you suggest, and the economic devastation leaves the world in a some kind of disaster scenario, form which people will understand that apparently random events in politics have been manipulated a long time, as well as economic events.
70 - Ah yes you’re wonderful predicting abilities
“I predict it’s going to be also a No vote for Ireland. With 48percent yes 52percent no.
I am very good at these I will be correct”
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/02/labour-re-gains-some-ground-in-todays-tracker/#comment-1243697
I feel like I’m swimming against the tide believing that Brown will last the course until May but I remain reasonably confident that he will. In fact, I’d turn Henry’s figures around and give Brown no more than a 25% chance of leaving before the election.
If Mandelson is backing D Miliband, to my mind, that can only be for a post-election leadership battle. Now is the time for a tactical retreat and to let Brown get landed with all the blame. Pushing Miliband too soon runs the risk of him losing the election anyway - which is highly probable - at which point surely the wider party would demand a say.
Besides, there’s only two ways Labour can choose a new leader: a full election or a cabinet/NEC nomination. It would be very difficult to fix the former as there are just too many variables (and as the MPs play such a big role, his falling following there may prove an insuperable hurdle, never mind the unions and membership), and the latter means getting the rest of the cabinet to stand aside.
Before we even go to the ‘who’ question, we have to ask ‘how’? How is Brown to be forced out? The PLP may have ranted and raved (well, ranted anyway), but Gordon’s still there. If they couldn’t generate the momentum over expenses, it seems unlikely that they can do it over much at all. A cabinet resignation would be damaging but again, Brown survived Purnell going in much more tricky circumstances - though I agree with Morus that had Miliband joined the revolt, that would have been game up. Unless some massive scandal breaks, directly implicating Brown, I really don’t see him being forced out. For him to resign would mean that he’d have to accept his position or his leadership is hopeless.
The other serious question over Miliband, besides ‘is he up to it’ is ‘what does he stand for?’. He’s risen a long way without leaving much trace. He’s allegedly a Blairite but is that in a personal rather than ideological sense? He seems to me very much a modern technocratic machine politician. Mandelson may well approve of that but it’s going to be a difficult positive sell. Over four years in opposition, he can build up a profile; over a few months in office, that’s much harder.
Mandelson may well have abandoned Brown as a medium-term hope but from his point of view a weak Labour PM is very handy at the moment. It gives him far more power than a strong one. If Mandy could guarentee a succession for Miliband before the election, he might just try it but he can’t so IMO he won’t. He would have to get past Harman and that’s too big an obstacle (and even if he did, it would leave the cabinet, leadership and party deeply divided). Mandleson looks to be trying to arrange the pieces for a Summer 2010 leadership election rather than for anything before then.
70 — Yes, sorry Wayne, multitaskin’ here.
That’s what I meant : You are the guy whose political flair is so great that you predicted a comfortable NO victory!
You are ComRes CEO and I claim my free massage at Nataree.
75
Its the Illuminati then! The new tablets not workin?. When it comes to it , I’ll go for, ‘Cock-up’ everytime.
The Daily Mash on the Generals and the BNP.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/racists-undermining-army’s-mission-to-kill-brown-people-200910202151/
75 Tapestry:
You are always allowed to respond. The point is how much do I know and how much do you know? Who is on the inside track?
Also was I speaking totally tongue-in-cheek?
With each passing day the prospect of a Labour leadership challenge becomes more remote:
(1) There are too many potential candidates for one person to be annointed
(2) In any event there is a widespread belief in the party that a contested election is vital in order to avoid another catestrophic coronation
(3) The Opposition would make hay if Labour is seen to collapse into internal politicking so soon before a general election
(4) Public and media demand for an immediate general election would be irresistable
(5) It is questionable whether any of the mooted candidates will perform better than Brown
(6) Ousting Brown so soon before the election is a tacit admission that Labour has screwed up - it will be impossible to reconcile that with the “we’ve turned a corner” rhetoric Labour will rely on in the next election
(7) For the plan to work Brown will have to act as a lightening rod for public dissatisfaction, accept responsibility for all of the ills and leave Labour “clean”. Brown won’t do that
(8) Even if he tried to, I’m not sure the public would accept it
(9) There are just enough clever people in Labour to know that what nearly destroyed the Tories was not the massive defeat in 1997 but the fact it took them 6-7 years to start the process of renewal after that. Labour’s renewal should start after the next election, with a clean slate and a new leader, not a man/woman sullied by an election defeat and implicated in the ousting of a sitting prime minister
Good Morning Vacillating Milliband Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. The (God)fatherly wing of the Conservative Party, The Cosy Nostril, plans an interesting future for a sleeping Boris and the head of Mike Smithson, the horse !!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6881613.ece
Gordon’s top ten ditherings according to Mr Dale
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
83 Paul Waugh has more detail on Gordo bottling out today….
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/
Meanwhile Bottler Brown has disengaged again.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/10/bottler-gordon-the-semicolon-proof.html
You couldn’t make it up.
83/84 Snap.
I just about understand Milliband as a candidate if Labour were thinking about “winning” the next election by which I mean remaining the largest party. He would move Labour on the televisuals alone right onto the presentational centre ground. However who thinks that is still a possibility? Does Mandelson really ?
However this may not be an ordinary election. Just close your eyes and imagine a leaders frame up with Milliband, Cameron and Clegg in the same picture. It won’t take five minutes for the graphic artists to start morphing their pictures and finding members of joe public who think a photo of one is the other.
I think post expenses, post burst bubble the market for something just a bit different is too large. In short Millband shoots the under dog narrative that Labour are trying to frame. Its a silly narrative but it may be there least worst option.
A leadership change now means panic and rolling the dice hoping for two sixes which means a visible change candidate which means only Ed or Harriet.
82. JackW, will they now go to the mattresses?
77 David H - Good analysis.
There’s one other very important thing to add. Would Miliband actually want the job? A lot depends on how much he thinks he could turn things around; it would require an awful lot of self-belief to be confident of making any significant improvement, and an heroic degree of self-belief to think he would end up as PM after the GE. Might he not, therefore, calculate that he would not want the blame for the defeat?
Johnson bottled out. Harman seems to have ruled herself out (although she does this so often that one wonders..). D. Miliband has bottled it three times. And there’s no sign that Brown is about to give up.
I agree with David H: 25% chance.
“the recent economic crisis was planned but went a bit too far. Money is now being made on the recovery - but when will the next collapse be allowed??”
Uh-huh……
oh dear,
Mr Brown is listed with Cameron and Clegg as a witness. The convention is that witnesses who appear consecutively are separated on the Order Paper by a semi-colon. If they are separated by mere commas, they appear at the same time before a committee. I know it sounds anoraky, but in Parliament these things matter.
So one can only conclude that the PM was indeed due to share the witness table with his colleagues…until he decided it may not look good.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/
87 I have money on Harperson as next leader post GE - I can’t see them getting rid of Brown but have a few quid on her/Straw as next PM as they’re only ‘credible’ options.
Ed is leader after next IMO.
77 I think Mandelson is in it for the games and the mischief. I think he is fascinated by power and (in particular) by exploring the extent of his power. He would love to know if he has the power to orchestrate the replacement of Brown with his chosen heir. He plays out the parlour game to an extent which some may consider imprudent, placing stories here and there, monitoring the reaction. It doesn’t mean he will strike.
(Imagine his surprise though when he does strike and then discovers that all along he was a pawn of the illuminati-Bilderberg-mason fraternity and their evil Lisbon obsession)
I can’t wait until this lot are botted out of office next May. All these endless theories about whats going to happen to Brown and who will take over from him really are starting to get tedious.
88 weathercock. “JackW, will they now go to the mattresses?”
Oh I doubt that very much. it’s where Gordon has hidden the deficet !!
5. Miliband is quite obviously the EU’s chosen heir apparent etc etc
Reds under the beds anyone?
I see the Mail is still trying to mend fences: I think.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1221582/Gordon-Brown-backs-gay-weddings-Westminster.html
Makes you wonder how Dave is gonna top that one.
“I can’t wait until this lot are botted out of office next May.”
95 - Will we get anymore JarHead today?
89 Richard N - I think we can deduce from past experience that D Miliband is very interested in being leader but only if annointed as such. He will play no part in an assassination.
PSBR Apr-Sep £77Bn !!!!!!!!!!!! it’s a record !!!!!!!!!!
99 Scream. Yes. Special Scottish edition today !!
100, a general scared of fighting won’t win many battles.
101 - Wonder if they will put that achievement in their manifesto
Some very strange posts on here this morning
104, unlikely, as Labour manifestos tend to belong in the fiction section.
102 – Jack. you do realise that the nits have no sense of humour? Any reference to poached Salmond and you could find your pet bunny doing the same.
103 - MD - “a general scared of fighting won’t win many battles”
I thought Milibands heritage was Polish not French
David Herdson (77) and Flockers (81) both make a very strong case for Brown remaining. However it seems to me as if they are assuming the PLP have totally written off the next election. Too much destruction in terms of loss of seats surely is potentially as damaging if not more so than not quickly renewing themselves after the defeat. In any case the process of renewal would be a lot easier with 260 rather than say 180 seats. Such a low seat total is perfectly possible if Brown who from anecdotal evidence is increasingly despised in this country (including more dangerously for him by those who are not natural Tories) remains at the helm to fight the GE.
105 runnymede. There’s very strange posts on here every morning !!
77. I doubt much more needs to be said than that. Mandelson knows just how much the left will enjoy opposition after the initial shock has worn off. He can see 10 years ahead of “G,Land L”. The Green, Left and Liberal motif is already going round as the model for rebuilding progressive politics in a post Labour world. Can a aging player like Mandelson be arsed with it all. the return of Culture wars, endless talk of realignment and electoral reform, consitutional reform, pandering the celtic heartlands and 5 wasted years opposing very spending cut for the sake of the core.
harman would enjoy it. Ed Milliband is young enough. the Lib Dems will love it. If Lucas wins in Brighton she might be able to drag the spectrum a little her way.
But can the terminus in a FPTP system be anything other than a Labour party is a newish mode moving on the centre and taking on a 2nd/3rd term cameron government where the marginals are?
mandelson knows this and will try and spare his grandfathers party an extra 1 or 2 terms in opposition. He is arranging the pieces to to try and skip the GL and L phase and move straight to take Cameron on.
Thats why the spectre of Milliband D being riased comes from
107. Pet bunny? Is JackW Hugh Hefner? Enquiring minds want to know…
107. Simon , He could get a lot worse than that, I am sharpening a large haggis as I type.
107 Scream. Actually the Numpties feature very little in the next enthralling romp !!
102 - I look forward to it.
The UK’s public sector net borrowing totalled £14.8bn last month, official figures have shown.
The figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was slightly lower than economists had expected but was still a record for September.
The rise takes net borrowing to £76.2bn for the six months of the financial year so far. The government expects borrowing to total £175bn in 2009.
The government’s overall debt now stands at £824.8bn, or 59% of GDP.
113 - Death by Haggis..
On thread, there’s a puff piece by Rachel Sylvester (Labour hack) in the Times today pushing the Milibands as Labour’s saviours.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article6881541.ece
Off thread, Labour’s campaign to give criminals equal rights continues…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6378452/Persistent-criminals-could-escape-trial-under-new-CPS-guidelines.html
107 - Remember the Scottish Justice Minister is a latter Gandhi, so the Cyber nats protests will be entirely non violent.
117 SSC. Nothing so subtle !!
Amidst all this of course is the possibility that the decision was made in June and Mandelsons choice to prop up Brown was always predicated on an Xmas resignation.
(Well its more plausible than most of the theories on here)
URW I’ve just take the 24-25/1 on Miliband as next PM.
Seems a decent bet.
116 - Sky reporting £77.3bn net. BBC £76.2bn net. Can anyone explain the difference?
120 - But why resign at Christmas and not June?
Resigning at Christmas, that close to an electon, smacks of desperation.
Surely June was the time to have a leadership election and allow a new man or woman time to establish themselves as PM?
I note that we are, yet again, discussing the leadership of the Labour party, and consequently the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, in terms solely relating to personality.
I find it remarkable that there appear to be zero policy differences at the top of the Labour party. If there were a policy difference then I would be much more confident about Brown being pushed out: there would be a standard around which his opponents could rally.
It’s true that Brown managed to oust Blair without a substantial policy disagreement [though he hinted at many, none of which came to pass]. The difference is that Brown was surprisingly [given what is said about him on here] successful in creating a large group of followers who were committed to him personally.
No-one else in the Labour party has that sort of following, and so I believe that Brown is safe until the election, unless a serious policy difference emerges. I don’t see this happening, because they are all Blairites of one shade or another who don’t particularly care for policy in the first place.
121 its the timing.. Interest on the 76.2bn will have accumulated since the BBC asnnounced it..
Anyone heard if the Beeb are pulling the plug on Griffins appearance on Question time ?
124
125 - No, he’s still appearing, well according to the DG last night.
125. No - they were plugging it on R5 at 8.15ish when Pickles was on.
125 Looks very likely to go ahead - they’ve changed audience vetting process and got more security at TVC.
120 tim- That has always been a great market although nowadays it is far more rational than previously.
Time was when you could Lay Cameron on there and Back ‘Cameron Only’ on the Party Leaders mkt. at a very nice premium, when it should be the other way round.
108, he combines a Marxist heritage with the bravery of the French. Miliband is to Labour as the Maginot Line was to France.
BNP membership list on wikileaks now.
120. How do you launch a new Premiership during the Christmas media black out? Lots of scope for soft “Love Actually” type events but as a monarchy these are less important in Britain. Isn’t the best argument against a new Labour Leader that he or she needed the conference just gone to launch the project.
They have run out of time.
124 - MTF
122 - Why resign in June and have to face calls for an Autumn Election when you’re miles behind in the polls.
Let the economic indicators turn up for a few months, hope the polls get to around a ten point deficit, replace the leader (a five point bounce for Gordon merely being removed - The Graeme Souness leaves the Club scenario) and let the new leader go into the election with the wind behind them.
116 In other words, our national debt, as a proportion of GDP, is growing by 1% a *month*.
@135:
To what extent do you feel the above is a plausible scenario rather than wishful thinking?
133 Unless Gordon does the ‘ill health’ route and uses Xmas for the sympathy vote?
Unlikely but…
109 - RobC - I think people like us care greatly about whether Labour win 180 or 240 seats but I don’t think it will have a particularly significant impact on the post 2010 landscape (assuming Labour do not do enough to stop a Tory majority). Labour will still be second comfortably in terms of number of seats and, in all liklihood, comfortably in terms of number of votes. It will be Labour people look to to form the next main party of opposition and it will be Labour (principally) who will capitalise if the Tories falter.
By all means the party should replace Brown if it thinks it can win the next election by doing so, but to replace Brown to save some marginal constituencies that will be the first to fall in subsequent elections seems to me to be misguided.
Anyone care to Lay my £158 at 3.9 for ‘Cameron Only’ on the Party Leaders market on Betfair ?
I’ll do 3.85 for a quick sale !
Waugh reporting Gordon will campaign in Glasgow NE.
134. It all has the whiff of desperation about it - we are on to recycling previously rejected saviours (sic) now.
@140:
On what date?
140. Take the 3.5 ya tight git
I have come to this concusion regarding Nick Griffins comming appearance on QT, and that is for the first time the Major parties and the Media Elite are AFRAID of him.
It seems improbable but the FRENSY this morning by ex generals, the media and several leftish pundits are screaming for the BBC to ban him.
Remarkable that this small man and his amall party are really turning backbones into jelly.
145. concusion = conclusion
146. Yes - and one can’t help feeling that giving the BNP all this extra column space will prove somewhat counterproductive…
MC @ 143.For my bet to win, Brown has to resign/be pushed prior to the next GE and Merciless Ming must NOT rise from the ‘dead’.
135. Your making it sound like renewing the Doctor Who franchise rather than the Premiership of an old country with a residual sense of historic exceptionalism. Isn’t the most interest stat in British poitics these last few week the You Gov figures backing Nick Griffins appearance on Question Time ? people are in an ugly mood and the media is questioing very old certainities. Why do you think everyone will play along with a pre arranged plan for a succession.
The country isn’t in the mood to act like the auidience at a Nativity play.
145. Yes QT this week is now the “Nick Griffin Show” - thanks to Peter Hain.
145 I think you are right.
The change in attitude towards the BNP since the Euros has been striking. Those 1m voters put the wind up them.
All of a sudden, it’s now okay to discuss immigration in negative terms, patriotism without being jingoistic, WWC men and their disenchantment…
The BNP have changed the game in much the same way Tory ‘cuts’ allowed everyone to start talking about the elephant in the room.
@145:
When the liberal establishment must choose a course of action to counter the BNP, it will dither for a long while, and then unintentionally choose the one which most aggrandises them.
The liberal establishment is afraid of the BNP because it cannot, will not understand that white working class former Labour voters make up the vast majority of the BNP’s support.
152 Martin - the only one I’ve seen who ‘gets it’ is Andrew Neil.
150. YS - it’s intriguing and slightly touching to see the extent to which the denizens of the bunker still think the public can be led by the nose, in the manner they (wrongly) believe they were in the heady days of Blairism.
@153:
That’s often the way.
149 good to see you YS, you should post more often!
136. Thank the Lord that Gordon Brown, the best ever Prime Minister, abolished those evil Tory boom and bust cycles!
135: Unless Brown wants to go, and decides himself, he wont…
That is the key issue in this area.
#108, by The Screaming Eagles October 20th, 2009 at 9:44 am
103 - MD - “a general scared of fighting won’t win many battles”
I thought Milibands heritage was Polish not French
Gran’pa Miliband fought* against the re-establishment of the Polish state. Do not dishonour the Polish war-dead by linking the 5cummy Miliband-soviet with that great nation!
* 1919-20 Polish War of Independence, Gran’pa Milihoon fought for the Soviet-Empire!
152. Has it been shown that ex-Labour voters are the largest element of the BNP vote? It’s my expectation but has there been any polling research confirming this?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100014107/im-glad-that-the-bnps-nick-griffin-is-appearing-on-question-time/
“Though personally I despise the BNP – as I do all parties of the left – the people I despise only marginally less are the ones who go round boasting about how incredibly outraged they are about how disgusting and wrong it is that Nick Griffin is appearing on Question Time.”
@158:
Nonsense. If there was a will to oust him, a means would be found.
One of either Darling, Mandelson, Milliband, Johnson or Harman could easily force Brown over the top, should they so desire.
OT
Jesus 70 STONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1221592/Worlds-heaviest-man-airlifted-British-hospital-RAF-helicopter.html
162: Not without either damaging their own leadership ambitions, or casuing more damage to the party they can’t.
re 44 Wayne what “excellent political intelligence” is that then? The same one which assured us that there’ll be a general election on Thursday? Can’t say I’ve noticed much campaigning round this way - but again that’s not unusual. Perhaps you can put me right, are we having an election on Thursday or not?
@164:
They could. Alistair Darling could go to Brown today and say to him he either steps down, or he’ll “do a Howe”.
Brown would have announced his retirement on health grounds before the day was out.
As I’ve previously mentioned - I’m in the audience for QT on Thursday. I’ll try and post something here once I get back home from the recording before the show goes out to give everyone a heads up as to what to expect.
Good to hear that I have passed the rigourous vetting procedures!
165: Are you 100% sure? Would Darling go public and knife him in the back? What chance Brown calls him and puts Ed Balls as CoE.
Coups are complex things, they don’t always work out the way people expect them to.
Paul Waugh reporting GB to campaign in Galsgow NE..
“Brown to campaign in Glasgow NE byelection
The PM is clearly confident of Labour victory in Glasgow North East next month.
The Daily Record’s pol ed Kevin Schofield reports today that Gordon Brown is to hit the campaign trail for the byelection trip, probably by combining it with a G20 meeting in St Andrews.
The last, and only, time Brown campaigned in a by election as PM was in his backyard of Glenrothes, which was won by Labour’s Lindsay Roy.
Funnily enough, he didn’t campaign in Glasgow East or Norwich North, both of which Labour lost.”
168 I do hope they keep a very close eye on the register this time.
@167:
There is one reasonable constant you may rely on: Brown’s extreme cravenness. Remember what happened last time he tried to oust Darling?
He was humiliated. By the least threatening member of the entire cabinet.
169 - It’s a different council, cant see the same problem repeating itself. Can you?
@171:
Under the ever-watchful eye of Scottish Labour, I expect the by election to be a veritable paragon of a fair election.
*ahem*
I don’t especially want to comment despite stjohn’s kind enquiry, as it’s one of those things on which anything you say gets interpreted in ways you’d not anticipated. Just on a point of fact, some of you have got the impression that the last PLP session was more riotous than it was. Brown mostly discussed the current political situation and dealt briefly with Legg, saying it was difficult but we had to get through it. He got warm applause at the end, and there were then 10 or so questions, three of which were about Legg. On one of them he gave an answer which many of those present weren’t happy with (you won’t believe me but I honestly can’t remember what the question and answer were) and there were “yes, but” mutters around the room. He added a further response and the mutters subsided. That’s all there was to it - one can fairly say that quite a few people there were uneasy about the Legg process, but it wasn’t a startlingly rebellious mood.
By the way, at 11 I’ve secured a 90-minute debate on the release of sick prisoners, with the Megrahi and Biggs cases as the backdrop. I’ve invited the SNP to contribute and had interest from the other parties as well. I’ve no axe to grind and simply feel the issue needs a sober discussion when there’s no immediate case to grapple with - see point 3 of
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/514
169 - neil - Postal votes already counted ?
169. He’s perhaps seen the postal votes already.
@173:
How long did it take to get you over your Swine Flu, Nick? I had mine, but I think it’s progressed to mild pneumonia.
Waugh in the ES picks up on, ‘Boris (he sleeps with da fishes) Johnson’.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23758565-godfather-text-throws-horses-head-into-boris-and-cameron-relationship.do
If he’s not careful he could end up buried in the foundations of ‘fantasy island’
174 - sorry Neil that post was meant for Plato.
170: I still get the feeling that Brown is completely self-absorbed though. For him to have to step down due to ill-health would mean almost a complete destruction of his adult life, and complete failure.
This is a guy which has battled for 40years against his eye-sight. Would he admit, to himself, and publically that it prevented him from properly finshing his public service? When he’s months away from a gracious way out?
I don’t know, maybe i’m being too dramactic, but the accident which had when he played rugby all those years ago must eat away at him. For it to stop him doing his dream would mean that his disability won.
GB on BBC parliament now.. wonder if he’s mention window dressing
@177:
I reckon that Boris has access to a few heavies of his own. And I don’t just mean James Cleverly, the sort of man who looks like he could kill you with a well-aimed stare.
179 Which force is stronger though - ill health or potential electoral implosion?
“lesbian, gay, bisexuals & women, ethnic minorities & the disabled are all under-represented in parliament. This hearing is to to discover why, and how we can improve the situation”
John Bercow at Speakers conference…..he could always resign and then we could have 1 less white, male, straight, able bodied middle class person….just a thought.
Jings, he’s expecting between 120-140 Labour MP’s after next election.. deluded or what.
187
Women MP’s - just me being naughty.
49 days in which to save the world. what do we do in 50 days time?
185 - Darius Guppy 0 Wet Paper Bag 1
181
Hi Darius its Boris, you errr remember that business a few years ago, when I was really, really helpful to you? Well I think its payback time’
@190:
It would be difficult to be taken seriously as a brutal thug with a name like “Darius Guppy”.
Here we go again, another discussion on whether Brown will go.
Those who beleive that getting rid of Brown and installing a second unellected leader, will wash with the public, are clearly deluded. Pathetic a figure that he is, Brown is still Labour’s best leader and best hope. What does that say about the rest !
190/191 - You two are so predictable.
Now this is what happens when Labour folk fall out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_McMaster
Hain and Johnson’s response to the BNP has been instructive- when Labour don’t like something, their first instinct is to ban it.
@193:
What do you mean? Surely you remember that shock resignation at conference, and Hattie being on manoeuvres, leading to the ousting of Brown at the end of September?
You remember that, don’t you?
192 - If memory serves, Darry’s Grandfather was an Ayatollah.
193 - You just dont do irony, do you? Or you only do irony. So hard to tell.
SkyNews: Diane Abbot attacks Gormless Rusty-Brown for allowing to use a favourite son approach to PPC-selection. Are the hyenas about to turn on the rancid carcass of nEU-Labour…?
198 - I can only come to the conclusion that Wayne likes the attention.
199 - it’s worth watching .. Diane Abbot clearly shaking her head at his unconvincing replies.
@200:
He’s either a bizarre ironic persona created by a bored PBCer, or he’s a complete mentalist. Take your pick.
As it looks now (imho):
Brown is disconnected.
He avoids the topic of cuts (even in his conference speech, the ‘cuts’ word was scrupuluosly avoided) and continues to talk of spending and ‘investments’ while the voters know that there is nasty stuff lined up for just after the GE.
Worse: Brown prattles on about Global matter while the electorate are becoming increasingly focussed on how they will be personally affected (which is why the Osborne speech appears to have had an effect. Osborne spelled out much more the personal consequences of his policies)
His diktats are ignored or paid lip-service by senior ministers.
A small but significant portion of back-benchers are contemptuous of him, his policies and his leadership.
Finally, the electorate have abandoned him: recent polls suggest that Labour would improve its position with a new leader.
The strengthening of Labour (or should that be ‘lack of post conference slippage’) in the opinion polls has brought the possibility of a hung Parliament back into Labour’s world - but only by dumping Brown. The major question is how long can the polls remain remain comparatively buoyant for Labour? As one commenter noted (apologies for the lack of name check - my memory again) there will be a raft of tax increases after Christmas and there is also the seasonal downturn for the government in the post New Year polls. When exactly this downturn begins is uncertain, but it is always there and the tax rises are unlikely to improve the figures.
So Brown needs to be replaced and replaced before Christmas, with a GE soon afterwards (those tax rises again, which would taint the new Labour leadership with the sins of the old, just as that leadership is seeking to establish a separate identity (and playing the subtle mood music which will be blaming Brown for the mess))
The New Boss needs to be acceptable to Blairites and Brownites and Old Labour and Mandelson - not to mention the most difficult sale of all - the public.
Can anybody in the present line-up fit the bill?
Fwiw I agree with Morus that Straw would be the best choice. He is essentially bland (unlike Hattie, whose recent forays into policy publishing seems to leave the voters rather nervous) and this means that Labour can strengthen its attack on Cameron’s ’superficiality’. He allows the other front bench members to step forward and carry some of the burden - government policy becomes more consensual (unlike Brown’s tenure, where minister could find themselves briefed against on the whim of the Dear Leader), yet Straw has been at the top or thereabouts for the twelve years of Labour in power, unlike Miliband Straw has experience (significantly and obviously he has not been Chancellor, which lets him retain Darling and an element of continuity at the Treasury at an important time) and lets Labour martial the ‘no time for a novice’ argument against the whole of the Conservative front bench.
And Straw offers the most favourable poll boost from the public if he succeeds Brown.
So Straw it is.
But when?
“You inherited 2 ethnic minorities in the cabinet, you now have none, yet you have 4 white scottish males…. ” parmjit danda
“We have more that sit around the table…. ” Brown
No! cried Diane Abbott
194
As Winston Churchill once said, (when a young MP called the Labour Party the enemy)
‘No young man those on that side of the house are your opponents, the enemy sit behind you’
202 - But can you be both?
Why are you oppossed to black and asian shortlists, yet favour all-women shortlists? - D Abbott
50% of the population are women, only 11% are black or asian - G Brown
139. Sean Fear
“In other words, our national debt, as a proportion of GDP, is growing by 1% a *month*.”
IIRC a year ago tim was trying to claim that national debt was no higher than it was under the Conservatives.
The nett debt as a percentage of GDP:
May 1997 42.5% and falliing
Sep 2009 59.0% and rising at 1% a month
Breaking News from FTNN*:
Is MP suffering from dementia or was he imbued with tax-funded alcohol at Westminster? The member is quoted to have said:
On one of them he gave an answer which many of those present weren’t happy with (you won’t believe me but I honestly can’t remember what the question and answer were)….
[Src: Nick Palmer, MP]
Our esteemed reporter - Wayne - to follow-up, but first I can confirm that 20th-Century/Fox are negotiating with Paul Whitehouse to play said member in a future film.
Over to you Wayne….
* Fluffy Thoughts Nonsence Network.
Just a quick question:
Parents planning to cash in an endowment policy today, it matures in 2 years time but they just want to get rid of it. Is this probably one of the best times to cash it in, they don’t want to play the risk game really…I was just wondering what anyone would suggest?
208 - We would all expect govt Debt to rise when the Western Govts have prevented the end of Western Banking through using taxpayers money and had to spend to keep demand in the economy afloat.
At 59% how does the UK compare to France Germany and Italy?
Bloody hell, Browns started to Gurn now…
It occurs to me (was probably obvious anyway) the Marr pillz ‘n’ blindness interview wasn’t aimed at the general public; its purpose was to close off one possible line of attack on Brown from his own cabinet by depriving them of the ability to argue “come on, Gord, you could plausibly resign on health grounds”.
I am certain it was fixed one way or another. Looking back at it Brown’s reaction was anger, no element of surprise: “he hasn’t put that question in the way we agreed”.
198 & 200.
I don’t believe in carping on about something that ain’t going to happen , no !
I had always assumed that Miliband stayed in the cabinet at the last reshuiffle, not because he is a whimp but because he was promised Mandelson’s support at a later date if he did.
So now is time for a novice? Well that would be my fist question for Millipede at any PMQs.
Its all grist to the mill.
But are we really going to believe that Brown will allow himself to be manouvered out by Mandelson? And when?
Brown puts up with Mandelson because he needs him, but really he hates him. Of course the Party is pissed off so could gird itself to get rid of him and then it would have to choose a successor. Just how could Mandelson fix the subsequent election? By making sure there is only one nomination. Is not this what got labour into their present mess?
If Brown goes I respectfully suggest to Labour that it would be in its best interest to have a fully fledged leadership election. And while all this is going on the country is going to hell in a handcart. Gee thanks Labour.
210: Go to an IFA.
211. Letting NRK go down the pan a la Lehman would not have meant the end of Western Banking.
Neither would keeping VAT at 17.5% (which failed to keep us apace with Germany and France coming out of a recession).
Still the rising interest payments wont be Brown’s problem - he’ll be safe in the Lords writing books on courage and decisiveness.
I noticed that Brown had about 6+ helpers behind him and Cameron just 2, Theresa May and John Maples.
were all GB all questions from LAbour MP?
217. If you can find one who is ‘independent’
210 ederyn - Definitely not a decision to take without getting detailed advice, but the likelihood is they’d lose out by cashing in early.
Dave announces new diversity policy.
“As women and ethnic minorities are overrepresented in medical schools, we shal be selecting local doctors to fight all Parliamentary seats”
220. No.
Just watching the first couple of minutes Cameron on this Bercow committee gathering and boy does he act like blair, same hand signals, demeanour etc etc. What do others think ?
223 tim - You’re just jealous that Labour didn’t think of all-GP shortlists.
210 There are lots of websites that can offer initial advice, but an IFA will give you the best advice.
I cashed one in a month ago [wanted to get best price before the market turns down post QE]. If the policy is unit based like mine, there is no market for them as they’re only worth the value on the day irrespective of the maturity date.
@225:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmVhB01-nIk
“If we hvae a majority of 1 after the next election…wishful thinking I know…” We would have 60 women & 10-15 ethnic minorities.
From January the central party will be providing the short-lists to local associations - and some of those will be all women shortlists.
Cameron on discrimination..
211. Are you suggesting Brown’s “Golden” Rule on debt was never a Rule in the first place?
“It’s not positive discrimination, it’s positive action” Cameron on all women shortlists, ewwwww stop it Dave!
227 - Why did you cash it in a month ago if you only forecast the market turning down in the future.
You’ve cost yourself about 10% in one month.
The FTSE numpties on here are expensive to follow.
211. British debt is fast approaching the levels of France, Germany, and Italy, countries which Brown has spent ten years deriding as slow growth, high tax, sclerotic eurocasualties.
Soon our debt might even overtake theirs. Our deficits already utterly dwarf anything on the continent.
Our taxes are now about as high as theirs, or higher. Our recession is deeper than theirs. France is now a bigger economy than us. The pound is dropping against the euro.
Yet our public services are worse, we have higher crime then them, our cities are uglier than theirs, our public transport is worse than theirs, our inequalities are greater than theirs, we have suicide bombers they don’t, our social mobility is worse than theirs, and our industrial production has been in absolute decline for a decade, unlike theirs.
Basically ten years of Gordon Brown and Tony Blair have given us a high-tax, low growth, big deficit, massive debt, semi-socialistic European economy without - remarkably - any of the social benefits enjoyed by France, Germany, Holland, Sweden and Italy etc etc.
We are the Sick Man of Europe once again. Thanks, Labour.
229/231 - The party that allowed Margaret Thatcher to become PM doesn’t need all women shortlists.
The cream rises to the top
Tapestry: you exhibit the classic behaviour of a conspiracy theorist.
“Belief in Conspiracies is associated with the feelings of alienation and disaffection from the system. Volkan (1985) suggests that during periods of insecurity and discontent people often feel a need for a tangible enemy on which to externalise their angry feelings. Conspiracy theories may help in this process by providing a tangible enemy to blame for problems which otherwise seem too abstract and impersonal. Conspiracy theories also provide ready answers for unanswered questions and help to resolve contradictions between known ‘facts’ and an individual’s belief system.”
It may well be that you think we are all blind to what’s going on and simply are too naïve or stupid to see the light. It may well be that this is why you believe we ridicule any facts you have which ‘prove’ what you to know to be true (maybe we’re in on it as well?)
Alternatively, maybe we just don’t agree with you because there is no evidence for your wilder claims and think you are making a bit of a fool of yourself. That’s a shame because, on occasion, you do post some quite intelligent stuff.
I can believe Mandelson wants to get the Lisbon Treaty through and maybe returned to government just to help this. I can believe Labour might have rigged aspects of the Glenrothes by-election. I can believe the EU funds pro-EU propaganda and tries to bully opponents.
But to suggest the UK is full of undercover EU agents is ridiculous – and I suspect, deep down, you know it is too.
I am as much of a striident eurosceptic as you are but your outlandish and fanciful views will do more harm to our cause than good
You confirm moderate peoples suspicions that we are a bunch of nutters. That doesn’t help.
If the Tories bring in All Women shortlists I shall not vote for them, and indeed I will stop supporting them.
221. Hoorar for IFA’s… we also love IHT & Tim (not DMT however)
Not that I’m biased in that direction… talking of which use the http://www.unbiased.co.uk website to look for local IFAs to your parents.
I would also suggest they select advisers who hold the most advanced qualifications - eg are Chartered and not just FPC.
Again I would say that too.
Boo and ‘epic fail’ to Bank sales reps, sorry advisers…
@236:
The Conservative Party selection process leaves shortlist selection up to the local association. It’s in the Party’s constitution, and Dave can’t change that even if he wants to.
He could ‘encourage’ an association to only accept female applicants to certain seats, but he has no way of enforcing it.
Conservative Associations are fiercely protective of their independence, and any such attempts at interference will backfire like the A List or Bedford.
So are we to take it that have Labour given up on Postie and now they’re trying to put all their eggs in Bananamans basket?
Prescient typo from Politics Home?
the Labour party has set a target of at least 120 MPs to represent the party after the next election.
239: Any old port in a storm….
239. I think we should get Shadsy to open a market on ’saviour of the week’, in which we get to bet on which nonentity/hasbeen will be puffed up as Labour’s salvation in the various weeks up to the election.
Ed strikes me as the most coherent Milliband. David would be too poor on the election stump (and sounded like Sir Humphrey while trying to suppress the judges last week).
If Jack Straw gives Nick Griffin a trouncing on Thursday sentiment could shift.
I remain suprised that any Labour mp seriously thinks an election campaign promising 5 more years of Gordon has any legs. Mind you they thought Michael Foot electable…
Gordon to stand down for the election early in the new year, leaving enough time to elect a new one for the elction. I think the punters might appreciate it.
240 -
I made the same mistake earlier. I think GB said 120-140 women MP’s.
238. No. Cameron explained from January any retiring MPs constituency party will have imposed upon them by-election style shortlists. The local party would still choose the candidate, but Cameron expects all women short lists in some seats.
@245:
I comfortably predict that the first time they try it, the association will refuse to select until CCHQ bothers to read the party constitution.
I know that’s what my association would do.
238. Didn’t I just hear him say on TV that “we will bring in AWS after Christmas”?
If so, call me an ex supporter.
The woman McTaggart seems to believe that getting to a proportion of 54% women MPs in the PLP is an achievement - but more needs to be done. So what level of female representation would be fair, for her? 70% female? 98%? No men at all?
The sweet irony here is that I bet most women will still vote Tory. Maybe MORE women will vote Tory. Most British women I meet, who aren’t in politics and have to make their own way, despise those who benefit from affirmative action.
Cleggy looks very nervous - Like a graduate at his first job interview !
AWSL - urgh. The Tories shouldn’t go down this route. It’s patronising in the extreme.
232. Errrm, because she didn’t know then where the markets would be now?
Your post exemplifies the Damian Uncertainty Principle, aka Dolly’s Law, which states that it is never theoretically possible to determine whether a labourbot is more stupid than he is malevolent, or more malevolent than he is stupid.
Did Henry G’s sources assume they were talking about David when in fact they were talking about Ed?
Or has Peter Mandelson’s long run as a political insider, where you appreciate intellectual,committee and management skills but maybe loose site of other more outgoing political attributes, mean he is misjudging the potential of David M?
@247:
I agree with you, Sean. I wouldn’t vote Tory in an all-woman-shortlist.
If they tried this on my association, I would urge the exec to refuse to participate as being anathema to Conservative ideals.
246. Hope so. But rocking the boat 100 days before the election, risky.
Does Cameron really believe this rubbish about ‘positive action’ or is it a part of the charm offensive on the guardianistas? If he really belives it, i’m worried about the direction of a Conservative government in regards to political correctness.
236.
Sean,
You are getting hysterical, it won’t happen … its just a soundbite !
250 Thank you.
As as tim will no doubt remember - I was in no position to delay as I’m skint and still without work 9 months on.
243.
I do`nt think there is a chance in hell of anyone giving Nick Griffin a trouncing on QT.
The format will be perfect for him.
Unless the BBC skewer the questions away from what is currently in the news, economy, afganistan, certainty of a Cameron led government in June 2010.
Very much against all-women shortlists. Not enough to lose my vote, unless Antony Calvert transpires to be a woman selected by such a method, but it pisses me off a lot.
250 - Clearly, but the Herd on here is ALWAYS wrong on the FTSE.
As Plato has proven yet again.
Bet against the herd.
I invested in the first week of March when the FTSE Numpties were in full cry.
It works.
243. Labour know Gords a no hoper and unelectable, but they can’t get rid of him if he doesn’t want to go. And then they’re left with the problem of how replaces him and how. DO they have a coronation? Or do they have a long-winded leadership election just months before the general election? What message does that send to voters? And finally they will still have to deal with the fact they allowed to become leader in the first place. Getting rid of him after two years doesn’t say much about their judgement.
So yes, I would think everyone in the PLP now agrees Brown is a non-starter, but changing leaders this late in the Parliament and after already changing once, is much easier for us to talk about than it is in practice.
Poor old Clegg, Sky got bored after a couple of minutes of his grilling and went to live pictures of Jenson Button wandering about. A little bit harsh.
@253:
Best guess, he’s trying to replace all the bed blockers that are retiring with soft-headed wimmin that can take up space on the back benches in a non-threatening manner.
207-11% Thought it was about 8-9%. In any case, what is the proportion of ethnic minorities, as:
-proportion of population
-proportion of electorate
-proportion of UK citizens living in UK
All will be different. Which figure is the one bandied about?
249. It’s a stupid stupid stupid error. A lot of us are (were?) voting Tory in the hope that they will put a stop to this dire social engineering and this desperate political correctness.
Now Cameron blithely announces AWS! F*ck him, silly arrogant Etonian knob.
RIGHT OFF the Tories now. They are as bad as Labour. They are hard to differentiate from Labour. They are ALL thieving canting hypocritical liars.
211. tim
How rapidly is France and Germany’s public debt increasing? What is their borrowing for this year?
How does it compare to France and Germany if you add over a TRILLION pounds for unfunded public sector pensions plus more for PFI etc?
How does it compare to France and Germany if you add corporate debt (trippled since 1997) and personal debt of one and a half TRILLION pounds (again trippled since 1997)?
Why is it important anyway to compare with other countries? If some bloke in your street wants to bankrupt himself does that make it a good idea for you to do so as well? Wouldn’t it be a better idea to compare this country to those that managed their finances well? Those that had the sense to run budget surpluses over the last few years and to reduce their deficits?
As to the banks if they had been properly regulated then they wouldn’t have needed bailing out, and who set up the FSA and who gave every encouragment to City greed and risk taking? Labour was quite happy to spend the wealth supposedly created during the great credit bubble, it being much easier to create the illusion of wealth then create wealth itself. And when the whole ponzi scheme collapsed allowed the City incompetants and conmen to keep their bonuses while everyone else gets saddled with a lifetime of higher taxes and lower living standards.
Gordon Brown the bankers friend
Gordon Brown the factory shutter
Gordon Brown the pension thief
258. The FTSE is up as its priced in a Conservative majority.
258 tim - Warren Buffett and I claim my £5.
Always thought a simpler solution to female representation would be to have two member constituencies. One man, one woman. 50% representation from the get go. Job done. No need for positive discrimination.
Quite good to have more than one MP covering an area. Would help if one was a minister, sick or just plain terrible.
265. Not entirely I believe and hence my £50 bet with Tim for the move in the FTSE the day after the election result is out…
@263:
To be fair, Sean, you’re smart enough that you’ve always known that anyway.
At least there’s a small chance Dave doesn’t believe all this crap about all-women shortlists.
263, I agree that this is a monumentally stupid idea, but don’t overegg the pudding. It’s moronic and foolish and will probably cause Cameron grief, but it’s not the same as ID cards or pursuing a scorched earth economic policy or lying about the referendum or to go into a war.
Greetings from Paraguay… [I wish]
My enforced absence was due to my PC dying. I am awaiting a new Windows 7 machine. In the meantime I will make occasional posts from the library.
Btw, when I said the Tories would head towards 35%, that was a forecast of the general direction of travel. I did not say they would poll 35% immediately after their conference and I would in fact be very surprised if they obtained such a low share on polling day.
We shall see…
re 211 tim the difference is that Germany and France’s annual budget deficits are quite samll, our is massive and growing completely out of control. We will soon overtake both France and Germany.
263 - I think you misheard him to be fair.
It sounded to me like they’ll use the paracute sytsem that they used with Nadine Dorries.
264 - I understand you’re not keen to post the French German and I debt figures.talian
254. I do not believe it was a soundbite. Cameron is far too clever for that. You can’t announce a major policy change - to All Women Shortlists - without following through.
If he fails to do it, he will be accused of lying, or at least dissembling. If he does it, he will lose the votes of tens of thousands of people like me.
I have been trying to ignore my growing doubts about Cameron. He is crystallising them.
@270:
The thing is, every attempt Dave has made at interfering in the selection process has backfired.
THERE’S A LESSON THERE, DAVE.
267, disagree enormously. Best person should get the job. I don’t care if the Commons is 80% female, if they get there on merit.
247 SeanT - Some shortlists might happen to comprise only women, just as they might happen to comprise only men. That’s not quite the same thing as deciding in advance that only women are eligible to be on the shortlist.
Cameron has a difficult balancing act here. On the one hand quotas are in principle abhorrent. On the other hand showing that the party has modernised and is in tune with attitudes of today is vital. Personally I think he might have gone a little too far towards the latter, but then I’m not the kind of floating voter he needs to seal the deal with.
258. What did you invest in Tim?
264-From the Economist a few weeks back:
Percentage point increase in debt 2007-2014 forecast, is:
UK c55%
France 32%
Germany 28%.
Debt as % of GDP in 2014:
UK 100%
France 96%
Germany 91%
@272:
Doing what they did with Nadine was fine, because it didn’t compromise the independence of her association.
272. Re European debt, see my post at 233. We are edging up to European debt levels, without the benefits Europeans enjoy from their debt. Worst of all worlds.
I don’t think I did mishear Cameron. He definitely used the phrase “all women shortlists”. If he didn’t mean that, he shouldn’t have said it.
All Women Shortlists.
I am very interested in this issue, both as a political activist and also from a professional perspective, when not the PPC for Torbay I am an executive recruiter in industry.
On average only 20% of people applying to join the candidates list are women which says that a lot more men want a job as a Conservative MP then women do, that is the statistic that needs tackling first and foremost.
If we are serious about encouraging more women to become Conservative MP’s (or indeed MP’s from any party) we will have to establish why relatively so few females want this job at the moment, and then try and fix the problem.
This is a better route to go down than to fix the outcome, because any candidate for any job who benefits from a skewed selection process forever struggles to establish credibility with their superiors, peers and especially their critics.
Lack of gender balance in Parliament it is a major problem for our democracy and nobody should be happy with where we are. Women are not nearly as under represented in local Government, or in other UK parliaments, or on most other European ones.
This gives us a good clue to start with. Why do more women seem happy to be MSP’s, Welsh assemby members, councillors and members of other Parliaments, and yet so few want to be in Westminster?
I would guess that the biggest turn off for women is the need to live in two places, the second biggest is the working hours, the third biggest is the style and form of Parliamentary debate and the fourth is the nature of the selection process; but I would be delighted to hear from any women on here from any party who have decided not to stand as an MP - to understand the reasons why they chose not to in order to help me to progess this debate within the party.
Any takers out there?
If you dont want to go into this in public please email me on marcus4torbay@gmail.com
275 If the best person should get the job you must be vehemently against FPTP and its safe seat fiefdoms. There is no correlation whatsoever between who wins and ability. Sometimes we get lucky, but explain the Wintertons.
@276:
It’s not a problem if associations are *allowed* to select an all-women shortlist. What I object to is any attempt to compromise the democratic right of an association to choose its candidate by imposing a shortlist.
#258, by tim October 20th, 2009 at 11:24 am
250 - Clearly, but the Herd on here is ALWAYS wrong on the FTSE.
As Plato has proven yet again.
Bet against the herd.
I invested in the first week of March when the FTSE Numpties were in full cry.
It works.
It’s easy to gamble with other peoples monies Farmer Tupac. But how many starving Africans have died because of your CAP-benefits…?
280 you heard him correctly Sean, he said AWS will be imposed on the ‘by-election’ footing for where MPs are standing down.
@285:
All it will take to put a stop to his lunatic idea is for one or two associations to refuse. CCHQ can’t force them to comply.
On the more general question of rolling back political correctness: sorry to tell you the bad news, guys, but there’s little hope. We lost that battle, despite being on the right side of both logic and ethics. Better get used to it. I hope Cameron might ease back some of the more egregious manifestations, and there’s good reason to suppose that he will rein in the bureaucratic monster that goes with it. But don’t expect much more.
286 I sincerely hope this was just a soundbite that ends up in the long grass.
Cameron doesn’t need to suck up to the Guardian reader.
258. And that was with the proceeds of last year’s barley sales, no doubt. Porky pie time.
286 by which point it will have morphed into an ‘aspiration’
Mistake though - Boulton reported the ‘news’ from Cameron’s piece as the introduction of AWS
Le Fail
271. Aha, so now we have the Rod Crosby reverse swing theory - it starts off down the channel, shapes like an inducker but leaves the batsman at the last minute
288 - You *hope* he is a disingenuous liar?!
A whole flipping conference on getting women into parliament. We already have lots of women in parliament and there will be lots more in the next parliament.
Virtually all of them will be middle class lawyers, doctors etc: smart affluent women who are quite capable of getting into parliament under their own steam.
What about white working class men? How many white working class men are in parliament? I bet the number is quite low, and I bet it is falling, and will continue to fall - not least cause so many posh Islington lawyer women are being parachuted into their working class constituencies. But do these men get any help? Do they even get mentioned?
Grrr.
Nothing in the news about AWS as yet.
Anyway, three cheers for Bercow for introducing that innovation.
287 Cameron’s ‘twat’ remark was a breath of fresh air and I hope he continues with it.
All woman shortlists are patronising in the extreme. They also reduce the possibility of the best candidate being chosen and they are unfair on male candidates (who have not benefited from possible male bias in the past).
Don’t be so wet cameron and remind any politically obsessed critic of the facxt that the tories produced a woman PM without the need for patronising measures like these
253. chris
“Does Cameron really believe this rubbish about ‘positive action’ or is it a part of the charm offensive on the guardianistas? If he really belives it, i’m worried about the direction of a Conservative government in regards to political correctness.”
Both possibilities are worrying.
He should know by now that trying to charm guardianistas is a waste of time. They might say nice things about him but they will never vote Conservative. The continuing dismal Conservative performances in places like Islington, Oxford and Withington provides all the evidence needed.
As to making Conservative MPs more demographically ‘balanced’, I remember Louise Bagshawe supporting AWS in an article on ConHome. I suggested to her that the principle be extended by putting limits on public school educated people from the south-east. For some reason she gave no response
@294:
Which innovation?
To Bercow’s credit, he does seem to have taken the threat of not being approved in May very seriously, and has started taking steps to be a proper, independent speaker standing up for Parliament.
Despite the unfortunate circumstances of his selection, he’s already an order of magnitude better than the useless tit he replaced.
Now what we REALLY need are quotas for lawyers, who are massively over-represented in parliament.
293 I think that’s a very fair point - the WWC types were usually also union hacks so had a particular axe to grind.
I’d like too see what Cameron plans to do to recruit Mondeo Man.
@297:
Ms Bagshawe is one of the best arguments against AWS I can think of.
285 Surely, isn’t that just intended to put a boot up the backside of any Associations dragging their feet in getting candidates in place? It is intended to be a Draconian measure that gives the incentive to sort it out earlier…so if your trougher, Sir Bufton-Tufton MP, is stil thinking of hanging around and giving it one more term, then have a word and get him to confirm he will not stand again - or we’ll impose, I dunno, an all feminazi short list on you.
on AWS does Cameron really want several Blaeneau Gwents on his hands -At least labour could afford to lose the odd seat of two last time , the tories need all the seats they can get
299 - I thought that it was former SpAds that were over populated in Parliament.
299 - And GPs - too many doctors in the house - at this rate.
281, disagree entirely. The demographic representation in the Commons is irrelevant to its ability to function well.
282, I support the right of a recall law to help hold MPs to account. Getting rid of FPTP would also certainly make the electoral system worse.
It’s obvious what is happening.
Mandelson has to prop up Brown until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified. That’s his number one objective.
Then he swiches to his number two objective - minimising he damage to Labour at the Gen Election. That means dumping Brown for whoever will give Labour the best showing.
299 Indeed - and have been for a very long time.
I assume it’s because they could continue in practice and were skilled debaters/good at detail.
My biggest concern about Camerons announcement is that it could be another grammar school moment. If Cameron can’t force the associations to do what he says, and from whats been posted here it sounds like he can’t, then he’ll just come across looking weak and stupid. Cameron should only pick fights he can actually win.
288 He certainly does not, the big tent will bust if he does.
Diversity officers, targets for women only shortlists etc
The conservative party acting like Police administration officers in the public sector, sure will not resonate with many.
Is this another Cameron “Pension Confusion” moment do we think?
What will the policy be by the end of the day?
Spin the wheel
293 SeanT amongst the usual drivel you have a great point.
Working men and women do need more help to get into parliament. If you’re on a 9-5 or shift work or have a family you don’t have much of a chance. If the Labour Party needs to rediscover something, I would say it is this. Otherwise we’re condemned to be governed exclusively by lawyers, those on independent means, nepotistic families, the retired (in local govt) and eager young weirdos with bum fluff moustaches.
UKIP might even win a seat or two if the tories become wet enough to adopt AWS
258. Tim - you are a dick. Plato didn’t have the money.
Clearly you wouldn’t understand that, being a man of great wealth, but not everyone is rich enough to be able to afford the luxury of being hypocritical about Socialism like you.
312 - “…and eager young weirdos with bum fluff moustaches”.
Jonathan, I’ll take that as your having doubts about Mr. Miliband’s prospects.
313 I think that’s very unlikely myself.
OT Waugh reporting that Gordon will ‘be busy with his red boxes’ when QT is on
Another brave stand.
@311:
Cameron is not an association man. This is not to his credit. Issues like this are ones where he *really* should defer to the Party Chairman.
Eric is an association man to the core.
317 Let’s hope that Eric squashes this one in that case
314. Don’t you think it is rather odd to be picking a fight with a constructed persona, using details about that persona that are probably invented?
296. There are few sights more revolting in British politics than the functioning of Labour’s All Women Shortlists, as half the population in some poor northern town is barred from standing as their own MP, simply because they are men - so a rich well-educated lady barrister from London can tootle up the M1 in her Prius and take the job instead.
I suspect these shortlists are becoming increasingly unpopular OUT THERE anyway, and that our politicians are behind the curve. As ever.
http://www.burnleycitizen.co.uk/news/4589492.Row_over_Labour_plans_for_all_woman_shortlist_to_replace_MP_in_Burnley/?ref=rss
Remember, David, not every voter is a Guardian reader. In fact, 98% of them AREN’T.
Guido puts the PSBR into context
“Data released today showed that public sector net borrowing rose to £14.8 billion in September, the highest ever level of borrowing on record for the month, increasing from £8.7 billion a year ago.
Gordon’s big and bloated government is overspending by £493 million a day or £20 million an hour, 24 hours a day, every day. More money is going out on the costs of failure – welfare payments – than is coming in from income tax”
We’re borrowing just under half a billion a day!!!!!
317 Martin C - OTOH, didn’t Pickles preside over the Bedford debacle?
Record Debt for Sept. Totals heading north of Darling’s estimates. just how honest will he be in the PBR?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6384864/UK-government-borrowing-hits-record-77bn.html
“Today’s figures showed that total debt rose to £824.8bn at the end of September, equivalent to 59pc of GDP - another new record. Excluding the cost of financial sector interventions, debt was £682.8bn or 48.9pc of GDP.
The Government paid out £5.9bn in interest payments on its mounting debt pile in September - 43pc above the same month last year and the highest monthly payout on record”
We are adding to the debt - just by having to pay interest on the debt. We are borrowing extra money to pay the extra interest on the debt. This is the policy adopted by the thickest of chavs to pay off their credit cards - they borrow more on another card to pay fore the first.
“Peter Dixon of Commerzbank said: “We know that as we go forward the hole in the public finances is going to require quite a dramatic slashing of spending, a widening of the tax base or a significant increase in taxes.
“Neither of those things is going to be very positive for growth going forward. We’re going to have to pay the price for a number of years of fairly lax fiscal policy.” ”
This is the black hole that labour have plunged us into.
@322:
This is true. But at least Eric believes that caucuses are healthy for associations even where they backfire. It’s clear that with AWS, Dave does not have the associations’ best interests at heart.
315 Give it a rest JohnO, Dave II does not fit into any of my categories he is a veritable man of the people just like your man.
Incredible numbers! Utterly amazing! :O
I am going to send SeanT off the Richter scale now.
There is a regular need for positive discrimination in certain types of recruitment - we do it in my business.
It is still legal to gender discriminate in certain types of job. One company in which I am involved recruits carers for the severely disabled, where discrimination is allowed for obvious reasons. Regularly there is an imbalance and we have to discriminate.
Until the political system is fixed so that we have balance in the number of women applicants for MP we will are right to take positive action. We need more women MP’s, or else political engagement will continue to decline.
All Women Shortlists are something that hopefully will not be necessary, but I would not want to see ruled out on idealogical grounds. As a short term fix all parties may have to consider it.
323.
The Government paid out £5.9bn in interest payments on its mounting debt pile in September -
Am I right in thinking that 17 billion borrowed in the last month alone equates to about £300 for every person including children in the UK?
Never been overly keen on AWS, however it has to be said that for decades we’ve effectively had AWMAMS - All white middle aged male shortlists.
The answer to the conundrum is surely fairly simple. A shorltlist must contain parity or parity minus one in any of the sexes.
327, why do you need more women MPs for people to be engaged?
Democracy and elections are about getting the best people for the job, not the most everyman (everyperson?) or average or representative. By that argument we should ensure we have no fewer than 3 psychopaths in the Commons at all times, and radically increase the number of obese members.
@327:
Marcus, you’re begging the question, I’m afraid.
“We need more women MP’s, or else political engagement will continue to decline.”
That’s a statement, I suspect, almost entirely without foundation. I’d be interested to see if you have any evidence for it.
327 positive discrimination (a horrible word masking plain old discrimination) doe snot encourage politcal engagement -just look at Peter Law’s win last time around.
According to Robinson, the shortlists will be imposed under by-election rules on those associations who by January have yet to choose a PPC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
Silly idea.
330 Interesting usage of the word “we” JackW. Have you just outed yourself?
329 - It does equate to just under 300quid
327 If the Tories deliberately targeted their recruitment activity - they could solve the problem locally and without *too much* PC effort.
AWS are a giant no-no AFAIC - if I were a PPC and ended up on one, I’d always feel like I’d been patronised and second class. It cuts right across the grain.
That’s why I loathe Harperson so much.
333. Shoehorning a minority candidate in didn’t work in Bedford - the LDs got everyone to vote for the white guy.
293. “What about white working class men? How many white working class men are in parliament? ”
I think you hit the nail on the head there Sean.
For me the biggest problem in the parliamentary Conservative party is the lack of representation of those without wealth.
According to “Blueprint” - which I’ve just finished reading - it costs an average £10,000 a year to fight a parliamentary seat as a PPC.
Just where do you find that money if you’re not of independent means?
There tends to be an obsession with the ‘transparent’ change of selecting women, ethnic minority and (to a lesser extent) gay candidates.
The bigger problem is representing those at the lower ends of society. Those who aren’t from the professional middle classes and independent businesses and cannot afford to run as a Tory PPC.
335 - “Have you just outed yourself?”
As what? British? Human? A Jacobite?
339 “The bigger problem is representing those at the lower ends of society. Those who aren’t from the professional middle classes and independent businesses and cannot afford to run as a Tory PPC.”
This where the Labour Party steps in. Well that’s the theory anyway.
“Democracy and elections are about getting the best people for the job, not the most everyman (everyperson?) or average or representative.”
There is an argument that the bias against women means that this does not occur; associations will pick the best male, who may not necesarily be the best candidate.
I think there is some merit to this; it’s hard to believe statistically that in so many cases the female candidate isn’t the best one. Whether AWS is the answer though is a different question.
336 then it is far too much to be borrowing and enslaving in debt generatiosn to come
If any Tories want me to hold their coats while they have a scrap I’ll be just outside inparting sound share and betting tips.
No scratching or gouging in there.
340 Senior citizen shurely?
340 A Tory.
Mr Cameron finally comes out in favour of a better balanced House of Commons?
So that means that he wants to see more Liberal Democrats, who are most unfairly discriminated against at present….
If he actually says that, I might start thinking of voting for him….
327. I disagree almost entirely with that Marcus.
Actually I think Cameron’s being very clever.
The concept of AWS will do well in the eyes of the floating voters, who will stop of thinking of the Tories being full of middle aged white men.
However he’s giving consituency parties 10weeks to find their own candidate before AWS are implemented.
So if a constituency party gets their skates on, they can have whomever they want.
Win/Win?
It strikes me as amazing that there are some PBCers who still don’t know who JackW is.
349 Ooh - that’d be cunning.
320.But 85% of the BBC, and the white middle class chattering classes do read the Guardian. Cameron (let’s hope) is simply trying to get the opinion formers on-side.
For now, i’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, though if ever went wobbly over Europe, I’d be in the same boat as the average Labour voter is now, in asking what’s the point of my party in goverment.
346 - Only the Tories have disproportionate numbers of white, middle-aged men?!
327. Why do we have to have a balance in the number of women in parliament? Does it have to be 50:50? Given that there are more women than men in the population maybe it should be 51:49?
How exact does it have to be? where do you precisely stop?
And why stop at women? What about exclusive shortlists for black people? (If yo can define black). And Asians? They are underrepresented. As are Sikhs. And Jews are overrepepresented.
Should we have non-Jewish shortlists to make sure the Jew-gentile balance is achieved?
Why not, if you want to enforce gender balance why not racial and religious balance?
And what about disabled people only shortlists? Why not? They are under-respresented. And short lists of obese people. And morons. And non lawyers. And tall people with red hair. I mean do we have a fair number of gingers? What about amputees, wet nurses, quadriplegics, cripples, drug addicts, monopods, Afghans, deafmutes, albino poets, schizophrenics, gays, ex prisoners, witches, vegetarian midgets and bra-curious pre-op katoeys with a hearing aid?
Idiot.
335 Jonathan. It’s the “Jacobite Royal We” - it means I piss all over some poor PBer from time to time !!
Meanwhile …. Bracknell Tories were very on Dave message with their primary shortlist - Three of each and Mrs Dale !!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/SttuYf7POkI/AAAAAAAAFVY/z339C2vlIto/s1600-h/009abbb.jpg
Surely by having AWS you are admitting that your party is so naturally biased against women that you have to impose strict selection rules to overcome it?
Not a good advertisment for a potential government in general I would have thought.
IF the tories can elect a women PM/party leader in the 1970’s then it can be trusted to not have bias against women in selection now without imposing sexist and disriminatory shortlists.
349 - “However he’s giving constituency parties 10 weeks to find their own candidate before AWS are implemented”
Can we have some clarification on that? it certainly puts a different complexion on what is fundamentally a flawed idea imho.
@349:
Associations don’t choose the timetable for selections. It’s dependent on when CCHQ advertise the seat to the candidate list.
all of this talk about shortlists ignores the real issue; namely, that of the working conditions of an MP.
An MP’s working life seems to consist of:
- spending significant proportions of time away from home
- being available during unsocial hours (weekends, evenings, mornings)
- undertaking work not just for the constituency but also for the local party
This is a considerable time comitment that many people of both genders may not feel able to give. Thereby, many suitable people will automatically exclude themselves.
Generally speaking (and it is a generality) men are less bothered about taking time away from their families/children than women are (although there are cultural pressures here too as today’s comments about paternity leave also show - that many men fear that asking for flexible working after the birth of a child is career suicide. And why is that? Because their bosses don’t (and they are primarily male), and they think they will be looked down on as “not committed enough”).
“IF the tories can elect a women PM/party leader ”
It’s certainly worth noting how hard Thatcher found it as a woman to be considered seriously as a candidate.
350 Martin C. “It strikes me as amazing that there are some PBCers who still don’t know who JackW is.”
Am I coming out of a usually white rabbit filled top-hat somewhere near you soon ??
349 TSE - There is the rather important point that any association which hasn’t made a selection by January had better get its skates on. There is an election coming…
“Can we have some clarification on that? it certainly puts a different complexion on what is fundamentally a flawed idea imho.”
According to Nick Robinson, the statement was that CCHQ would only consider it post-New Year where a constituency has yet to choose a candidate, as the selection would then be under by-election rules meaning CCHQ could dictate. I assume it’s due to the relatively short period left before an election.
@361:
I see you in my dreams all the time. Those sweet, wonderful dreams of Jacobite insurrection.
355 - “I piss all over some poor PBer from time to time !!”
So you’re Mark Oaten?
360 but she was and was elected -wonder how harder she would have found it if she had ben in the labour party at the time. Now that party probably does need AWS and Ministries for Women to cover up real sexist bias
349 I refer you to my post 302…
On Sky, Griffin smearing the armed forces saying that they all vote for a racist party.
I wouldn’t have thought it was a good idea for the BNP to take on these people, they are pretty scary and they have weapons.
272. tim
Here are some European debt figures as provided by Peter2:
“From the Economist a few weeks back:
Percentage point increase in debt 2007-2014 forecast, is:
UK c55%
France 32%
Germany 28%.
Debt as % of GDP in 2014:
UK 100%
France 96%
Germany 91%”
So which country is the one that has the highest current borrowing? Looks like previous governments had lower borrowing than France and Germany but under Labour it has been higher.
And will you provide details as to personal debt and personal savings in this country compared to France and Germany?
Here are the OECD figures from 2005 for the G7 countries for household debt as a percentage of annual income:
UK 159%
USA 135%
Jap 132%
Can 126%
Ger 107%
Fra 89%
Ita 59%
The increase from 1995 being:
UK 53%
USA 42%
Jap 2%
Can 23%
Ger 10%
Fra 23%
Ita 27%
I wonder how much the numbers have increased over the last four years?
This country certainly does debt creation very well, pity we’re not so good at wealth creation.
293 Re: white working class men in Parilament. Our PPC is the son of a school caretaker.
Don’t agree with all women short lists but from what I can gather it will down to the association to choose to do it rather than be forced. And as has been pointed out, he can’t force any more than he could force the A list.
Conhome has already pointed out that open primaries are picking men. They are some good women who just seem to keep coming second/third all the time. If these women keep coming in second, then it is perfectly possible for an association to have enough to think that they will be able to get a great shortlist from those women. I would rather it not be this way. But he has a problem that is not being overcome. He is giving it shove; making a mission statement. In the end no association is going to do it unless they think they have enough brilliant women candidates to make up the list. He is just rattling his saber at them a bit.
365 Scream. You’re pissing in the wind there !!
@363:
That does put another spin on it, since CCHQ has always had the constitutional power to declare by election footing and impose candidates on slow-to-select seats when we are less than X weeks away from a general election.
Morris Dancer. Two points here.
If 100 men apply for a job but only 20 women do; do you think we are getting offered ‘the best people for the job’ in the first place?
The answer is of course not. If the pool of talent you are fishing from has a 40% shortfall to begin with you are lessening the chance of finding the best person for ANY job.
Secondly, if Parliament is badly lagging social trends for gender equality then it is not reflecting wider society.
The vast majority of the women I canvass find Parliament a huge irrelevence, even though they make up by far the most engaged of the electorate on the actual issues. Unless Parliament becomes relevant to a lot more people our democracy is only weakened.
It is not a matter of absolute numbers but as a totally male dominated place the style of debate and the way Parliamentary activity is conducted is a massive turn-off to lots of people, including most women. This is a catch 22: Unless there are more women there it won’t change, but until it changes there won’t be more women there.
79.”Before we even go to the ‘who’ question, we have to ask ‘how’? How is Brown to be forced out? ”
David, you forget that Brown might simple want to go of his own accord.
125.”Resigning at Christmas, that close to an electon, smacks of desperation.”
TSE, Because it would mean that Gordon Brown was leaving after exploring every avenue to try and turn his premiership around, and it means that he leaves at a time of his choosing with the Labour party having failed to oust him. Gordon would see that as a personal victory. And Christmas and New Year, well who is following the news much less politics at that time of year. Go back and check the threads here then, very thin. If you want to quietly scuttle out the back door of the sinking ship, what better time to do so.
When Brown bottled the Autumn GE, did he make a proper announcement or do individual one to one interviews with the political editors? Nope, he had Andrew Marr sneaked into No 10 on the Saturday for a soft interview to be tucked away at 9am on the Sunday.
235 my two year old son will not allow any more comments today, Casino.
Vote rigging is not a wild assertion. There is already a great deal of evidence.
What appears to be a wild assertion one minute can appear on the money the next. I see a total disinterest in the subject of vote-rigging as very odd from all commenters.
But then as I can see now, I am a nutter, a conspiracist and not a rational thinking person.
Thanks for the character analysis. Independent minded, and a refusal to be bullied by the mob into agreeing with what doesn’t make sense to me - always.
have to quit and play with racing cars - urgently.
363 – Thank you David.
367 - yes, GMTA and all that.
365 - The Real Jack W!!!
350. so who is he?
370 yes sally , open primaries are probably opne to male bias in that they can vote with their feet more easily (especially inthe evenings) -the photo of a group of all males linig up to vote for the bedord tory candidate showed this.
Thast why both AWS and open primaries are stupid ideas . Nothing wrong with the status quo in how the tories pick candidates imo
373 - Marcus, its also about working conditions as well as the “feel” of the place (see my 359). Until and unless those change, fewer women will want to be MPs.
“but she was and was elected”
Except that she found it harder than a man of her calibre would have. That’s the problem.
“wonder how harder she would have found it if she had ben in the labour party at the time.”
Proably little difference, but that’s not really the point.
“Conhome has already pointed out that open primaries are picking men. They are some good women who just seem to keep coming second/third all the time.”
This is key, really. If you’ve consistently got second rate men beating out good women, then there is a problem that needs to be addressed. This point works even on the “but we just want a good MP” angle.
“but she was and was elected”
Except that she found it harder than a man of her calibre would have. That’s the problem.
“wonder how harder she would have found it if she had ben in the labour party at the time.”
Proably little difference, but that’s not really the point.
“Conhome has already pointed out that open primaries are picking men. They are some good women who just seem to keep coming second/third all the time.”
This is key, really. If you’ve consistently got second rate men beating out good women, then there is a problem that needs to be addressed. This point works even on the “but we just want a good MP” angle.
354:
The answer to SeanT’s complaint seems clear: We just wire a silicon chip and mini transmitter into *everyone’s* head so that *everyone* can be consulted on *everything*. Er, isn’t modern technology wonderful?
The real JackW:
http://brucemhood.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/zelda-1.jpg
373. We had lots of extra women in 1997. What difference has it made?
378 Tabbers.
Not with those sandals !!
385. Martin C. How could you possibly confuse me and the wife !!
383 if second rate men are beating better women then yes the problem doe sneed to be addressed i agree . I woud also agree that such happenings ina party mean it is unfit for government.
AWS are an admission of bias and means the party is unfit for government imo. Far better to advertise the fact that women will get an equal chance of being selected as men do by the party that has given the country the only female main party leader/pm
At last people have stopped getting hysterical over Cameron’s soundbite “AWS” announcement this morning. Some people on here really don’t understand how politics really works sometimes. It is clever politics and a clever politician that announces a soundbite, that gets the attention and at the same time elevates himself. After a few months the impact has died and the likelihood is that many other things are much more important at the time !
375:Christina you are of course quite correct.
Firstly, does Brown want to go? Is the question which must be asked.
I beleive that he does not. The only real way out is ‘ill-health’, and I don’t think he wants that. In addition I truely beleive he would be happier being defeated than have the tag of ‘the PM which never faced an election;.
I see the bbc has now changed their figures in line with everyone else..
“Net borrowing for the six months of the financial year so far now stands at £77.3bn - the worst figure for the April-to-September period on record.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8315907.stm
386 - Jacqui Smith. A nation rejoices.
386 runnymede. But it might have been so much worse !!
386 Silly question, runnymede. It made a lot of difference. For a start it meant we’ve been able to have Jacqui Smith as Home Secretary.
If its not beyond the wit of most employers to select the best candidate regardless of gender (and most can manage it) then I fail to see why party associations cannot do it and if they cannot the party is not ready for government
I see Hain isn’t dropping his anti-democracy protest…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/oct/20/nick-griffin-bbc-hain
Has he now taken on Margaret Hodge’s role as the BNP’s main recruiting sergeant within Labour’s ranks?
Nothing wrong with the status quo in how the tories pick candidates imo
by rightisright October 20th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Parliamnent has lots of white middle class men. Tinkering may not work, but there are very few on here who accept it is just fine and dandy the way it is whether they refer to women or the working classes.
392. I could almost rest my case there. The artificial promotion of a whole host of female yes-persons and nonentities will do nothing for parliament or women in general (rather than a specific group of female political hacks and careerists).
398….the problem with parliament is not its gender or ethnic balance. It is the low average quality of MPs.
I think it may be a bit harsh to blame all women for Jacqui Smith.
He has been basking in the reflected glow from Saint Hillary.
And he has started selling out his political principles, for example by refusing to release the Binyam information. He has learnt quickly that the role of the British PM is just to be sycophantic to anything the Americans want. He is fast picking the skill of being a ventriloquist’s dummy for US Foreign Policy.
So maybe I have underestimated him. Perhaps he hasn’t got his bro’s skill and charisma. [And Ed has been putting himself about in the papers BIG TIME..]. But maybe this is David’s moment ??
Daily Politics with nonsense on windfall taxes hosted by airhead.
389.That’s short term politics, which Blair perfected, it worked for a while, now most think he was a liar. It’s not wise politics to make promises you dno’t intend to keep, or to say one thing and do another. Politics is in the mire because politicians stoppd behaving liked grown ups and started to telling people they could hvae everything at no cost.
How about the Tories going for honesty? It might hurt in the short term but telling the truth will yield more benefits long term.
Can anyone explain why Alex Salmond was not invited to the Speaker’s conference to describe his party’s policy on non-Jock MPs?
Was it broadcast on the Parliament Channel in Scotland?
“We just wire a silicon chip and mini transmitter into *everyone’s* head”
Tell me why … I don’t like Mondays?
“Far better to advertise the fact that women will get an equal chance of being selected as men do”
Um, the point is they don’t……
399. It is also the perceived corruption and misuse of expense rules, and MPs not obeying the laws they pass.
397 some jobs naturally appeal to a certian gender more .It does not mean there is (has been) bias in the past . The working conditions of an MP is more favourable to males in general (as has been said earlier in this thread). This shoudl not mean men are now excluded from a job (as would be th ecase in AWS) or that women should not be treated the same as men in an application process .
Is it really necessary to have a target of 50% of MP’s as female -no I don’t think it is . Is it necessary to have no bias in selection of Mp’s according ot gender -yes that is far more important
389.That’s short term politics, which Blair perfected, it worked for a while, now most think he was a liar. It’s not wise politics to make promises you don’t intend to keep, or to say one thing and do another. Politics is in the mire because politicians stopped behaving like grown ups and started telling people they could have everything at no cost.
How about the Tories going for honesty? It might hurt in the short term but telling the truth will yield more benefits long term.
with better spelling.
404 - Well as Stuart Dickson on keeps on telling us, the Westminster Assembly is a talking shop, Holyrood is where all the action is.
Such an event isn’t on the radar for Alex Salmond.
If the policy is to impose all women short lists on associations that haven’t got candidates by January, then surely all thats going to happen is that all or most associations will have their candidates in place by January?
Is Cameron just looking for cheap headline and to get the associations to get a move on with picking their candidates? Surely not?
406 evidence david?
411 - That’s my theory.
328. Ghost
“The Government paid out £5.9bn in interest payments on its mounting debt pile in September”
So last month in effect every single person in this country paid £100 for the interest payments on public debt.
Think of all the things you could do with your £100.
Think of all the good that would do the economy if you were able to spend that £100.
All those benefits lost becuase instead of you spending that £100 of things you want to spend it on it is instead being taken from you by the government and given to the banks.
Still I bet City wine bars sold a few more bottles of champagne and an extra Ferrari or two were ordered.
Gordon Brown the bankers friend.
403.
Chris,
I agree with what your saying, however Politicians are Politicians ! I don’t believe they ever were grown up either !
“the problem with parliament is not its gender or ethnic balance. It is the low average quality of MPs.”
Which could of course partially be explained by the fact that low quality male WASP-types men get chosen over higher quality women and ethnic minority candidates…..
As an aside, I’m amazed we’re this close to an election and associations still haven’t got their candidates! What would have happened if Brown had gone for an election in 2007? Would hundreds of seats been left uncontested?
406 david , The labour party by having AWS is admitting that they canot be trusted to select women on merit and so need this rule .
not a great advert for wanting to form a government I would suggest
406 evidence david?
It’s statistical-there appears to be no shortage of women attempting to be selected, yet very few of them appear to succeed.
411- That’s the jist of it, a kick up the backside for associations to get their act together before a GE is called.
@417:
The Party Chairman would impose a shortlist by fiat on the associations that haven’t selected, and the executive would meet to pick a candidate.
385 no this is the real JackW, at home pondering the polls - note youthfulness of Mrs W and foot of Lib Dem canvasser impaled on wall behind him..
http://thenonist.com/images/uploads/trtn.scn3.jpg
408 - exactly, the only way you will change the representative sample of people who bother to apply is to change the working conditions of an MP.
Currently, those most likely to apply are going to have one or more of the following characteristics:
- single-mindedness (possibly to the point of selfishness)
- limited family commitments
- independent wealth
- a career that involves some degree of highly-paid self-employment
re AWS.
I note that Cameron has spoken about this, in contrast to the silence in regard to the EU.
407. Dr Spyn - there is a connection.
416. It could in theory, but where’s the evidence?
422 Mean drawing pins, JackW.
Not so sure about the tiny sofa, though…
408. Politics is extremely aggressive and competitive and non-family-oriented, by its very nature. That kind of work is always going to appeal to men more than women, the same way bareknuckle boxing or car repair or polar exploration or soldiering generally appeals to men more than women.
It’s just hormones.
Not sure how much you can do about this. And if you try and over-engineer the situation to get a gender balance despite the hormonal facts of life, then you will end up with a parliament full of mediocrities, a House full of women who actually aren’t that interested.
Of course they may still be better than the men.
The above does not preclude making politics more attractive to women: that SHOULD be done. Likewise, making it easier for poor working class people of all races and genders to stand: that should be a priority.
I agree entirely with James and Morus at 1 and 4. I will simply add that I think it is far too late to change leader now.
“not a great advert for wanting to form a government I would suggest”
You might be right. On the other hand, one could argue it’s merely reflective of the members in charge of selection, and not on the quality of those in leadership positions. Indeed, moving to actively address the problem coudl be indicative of a bood leadership.
405 tabman
423 And people wonder why its all gone to pot. If your system excludes people who have to work for a living and those with families - it doesn’t leave you with much.
Tabman at 381. I agree, I made a similar point earlier on.
Morris Dancer, and others. I have said on here before that idealogical right wing Conservatives are the ones who will, I think, end up complaining about Cameron more than the left.
I am sure he will herald a return to pragmatism, honesty and public service in politics.
I am quite certain he will take the action needed to deliver the right result, even if it offends the political dogma of his party. Many on our side will hate him for it.
You may not like AWS - I am not keen on them myself as I said earlier, but if that is the only tool left in the box that is able to deliver the outcome that is best for the country, Cameron will use it.
@424:
Yes, HOW STRANGE that Dave said nothing about the EU at a speaker’s conference on the subject of equal representation in parliament.
421. Ok, thanks for clearing it up.
424. What do you want him to say about the EU?
422 I’ve found a little-known picture of Jack carrying out his Military Service in Afghanistan. It looks a right Carry-On!
431. I’m confused - don’t MPs work for a living?
This is Jack in his heyday
http://tinyurl.com/UpTheTories
436 - runnymede - it’s all the running around before getting elected (when “normal” people have to work) that causes the problem.
A current Conservative MP used to work as a direct report to my sister. Has attendance record was, at best, “patchy” shall we say and he and his employer agreed to part company. As he already had independent means it was no great hardship.
Has the By Election writ been moved.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/10/brown-to-campaign-in-glasgow-ne-byelection.html
Will he receive a reception from those he canvasses on a par with the Normandy Veterans?
“it’s all the running around before getting elected (when “normal” people have to work) that causes the problem.”
Iain Dale’s made a similar point before over criticisms about the number of people involved in lobbying, political work etc that were candidates; those were the only types of job that made allowances for the time needed off to be a candidate.
436 Some do, many don’t. Quite a few don’t rely on their parliamentary salaries to put bread on the table or keep the roof over their head.
And if you don’t have to work full time to do the same before you’re elected you’re in a greatly advantaged position as a PPC.
350. Why is it amazing, I have no clue who he is.
438. The ’solution’ to which is what, exactly? Campaigning is always going to be a time-consuming business.
* * * BETTING POST * * *
According to Michael Savage of the Independent
http://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/5016692591
Though I can’t find it on the PP site.
378. Tabman, Jack is looking good for 107.
444: Thats silly. No one should walk off when they know what they’re getting themselves into.
446 Slackbladder
It’s not online as far as I can tell, so this is just speculation, but I suspect that bets would be void if no-one walks off.
444/446 – I’m lost, walking out during or prior to QT..?
444 Is there a book on anyone slapping anyone?
Potential extra footage to add to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=somH2V19BjE
Odds on troublemakers in the audience forcing a premature end to the broadcast?
I think it’s great how Labour have made this week’s QT starring Nick Griffin the must watch political programme of the week.
Martin C - sorry to hear you’ve got swine flu. If it’s what I had, in my case it passed very quickly (48 hours) - just lots of symptoms I don’t usually get with flu. But it affects different people differently and if it’s developing in your case you should get medical advice.
On AWS - in my experience virtually nobody actually likes the idea, including Guardian readers, and the division is between those who think they’re regrettably necessary and those who can’t bear the idea.
It’s an objective fact that without them you overwhelmingly get male MPs - why that should be is an interesting quesiton, but one reason may be the shortage of role-models, making it self-reinforcing. If people subconsciously think that a “normal” MP is a white middle-aged man, then they’ll tend to assess applicants by how closely they fit the image. The main case for AWS (and I’m not wild about them either) is that it changes that preconception.
What are the odds on Hain asking a question at PMQ’s tomorrow about BNP/QT to truly show his own moral compass on this issue?
Not high I imagine…
453 scrapheap
He’s a frontbencher so he doesn’t ask Qs at PMQs.
410. TSE, exactly , he has real work to do rather than swan about in a talking shop at Trough Towers.
454. Yes shame that - could he resign in time?
451 - Other than Jon Cruddas, I cant think of anyone in the Labour party who knows how to deal with the BNP.
On Thread
Am I alone at looking at that picture of Miliband and thinking ‘that man will never be Prime Minister’?
Purnell, Balls even Burnham look as if they have something about them but the Millibands look like wimps and geeky wimps at that.
Miliband remiinds me of a third generation ‘daddy’s boy’ who runs a divison of the family business and bankrupts it. Someone who is too scared to leave the family’s protective blanket for the outside world. Someone who is despised and ignored by his own workers.
Has anyone seen/read ‘The Godfather’? David Miliband is Fredo Corleone.
Even better comparison - David Miliband is Kevin Maxwell.
457. Eagles
Frank Field does.
456. It is easy to forget (for me anyway) that he’s actually the Welsh Secretary isn’t it.. i still automatically think of his strop when he resigned when I think of him.
457 The Screaming Eagles
Jack Straw is the best member of the panel - but that’s not saying much. He must surely have some BNP experience given the demographics of his constituency.
But Cruddas would be much much better.
459 - Crikey, forgot about Frank.
So far that’s Frank Fields and Jon Cruddas, anyone else?
423
‘Morris Dancer, and others. I have said on here before that idealogical right wing Conservatives are the ones who will, I think, end up complaining about Cameron more than the left.
I am sure he will herald a return to pragmatism, honesty and public service in politics.
I am quite certain he will take the action needed to deliver the right result, even if it offends the political dogma of his party. Many on our side will hate him for it.’
You have just repeated what Oborne said on his radio programme about Conservativism: that One Nation Conservatism is about national not party interests or dogma and that ergo Cameron will do what he thinks is right regardless or party or public popularity.
The last part of the show linked by someone on here yesterday was very interesting.
460. Assuming Hain won’t resign at Jack going on QT with the BNP, could he ask a friendly Lab backbencher to raise the question instead… now who could he ask, hmm…..
439.dr spyn, I believe the writ was moved on Friday. Only saw this noted in one of the Scottish Sunday’s though.
433
My point is that Cameron has defined his position on AWS - in short he has offered a hostage to fortune, yet he has not done the same for his EU policy.
In other words, the example of the EU shows he is a cautious politician, but has decided that he will drive through AWS, so people hoping that AWS is just hot air or noise for the Guardian tendency are likely to be disappointed.
461 - I really wish we had sent in William Hague, Ken Clarke, David Davis or Boris Johnson rather than Lady Warsi (who normally talks a lot of sense)
noticed this on ES site about half an hour ago.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23758498-bbc-trust-reviews-bnp-leaders-invite-to-question-time.do
Is the BBC looking for a way out, to somehow remove Griffin from QT? It is a funny old world, it seems to be somehow OK to be an ex-commie or for Labour to select the grand-daughter of an IRA man Roof Kelly to be a candidate then minister. The BNP are damnable fools, but martyring them is not a sensible move.
465. Thanks.
457 Ann Cryer in keighley surely has the experience.
398/399….Parliament’s problem is that by paying peanuts you get monkeys.
461
Forget the panel - what they say can be virtually pre-programmed.
The audience sets the stage for the show - remember the 11th Sept edition?
It’s how the BBC packs the audience that counts.
442.MalcolmG, despite all the clues or false leads littering the threads over the years. I have always had a sneaking suspicion about JackW’s identity that would really make us go
What’s hilarious about it, is the fact that they really do mimic each other beautifully.
The ideal panel against Nick Griffin would be:
Jon Cruddas, William Hague, Lynne Featherstone, and Rio Ferdinand.
472 On The BNP ’s appearance on OT - I do hope we are not going to see juvenile ’stunts’ or intimidatory protests about his appearance as all this does is allow no actual debate to take place . Far better to keep it civil and ask awkward questions (like the holocaust etc) .
Hope against hope though I fear
474 rio ferdinand would make a lethargic mistake to allow Griffin in on goal imho
Afghan election goes to run-off
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8316487.stm
Brilliant news.
477 damage has already been done to the idea of a non corrupt government in that country-We should get out as soon as possible
475 rightisright
I am certainly no Man Utd fan!
However, he is one of the more articulate footballers out there! A footballer would have credibility with the BNP’s target audience that Bonnie Greer would never have.
http://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/5017205996
Taken from the most recent Coffee House article regarding Cameron and AWS:
“…he may impose women-only shortlists on those constituencies…”
if it’s a maybe surely the constituencies will just hurry up their process and get it done more rapidly, then quietly tell him not to bloody interfere or try to in the future?
475 Big Ron could provide the commentary on that…
480 Morris Dancer
I think Cameron is just giving local Association chairmen a coded warning - he’s telling them to hurry up with their selections.
Frankly, any local Conservative Association which hasn’t picked a candidate by January when an election is due by May is obviously very badly run.
479 I just hope that Guido doesn’t allow her to wear the Great Cloak of Victimhood. Least, not before the election. Ideally, I want to see her
(i) whooped by the voters of Redditch; only then can she be
(ii) whooped in court.
481 - I do feel sorry for Ron Atkinson.
Brendon Batson spoke really highly of him, even after that incident.
481 ‘Big Ron’ Atkinson has a ‘past’ on race issues-he was sacked by ITN for being caught muttering ‘lazy f***ing n*gger’ referring to an Afro-Carribean player in c.2003
“All Women Shortlists are something that hopefully will not be necessary, but I would not want to see ruled out on idealogical grounds. As a short term fix all parties may have to consider it.”
Ought they to have been applied in Torbay, or is this a case of “do as I say, not as I do?”
484 At the end of the day,did the ITN have any option but to instantly dismiss him-I personally could have just about stomached Ron publicly apologising,and being given one more chance,but many would not
485 - Was about Marcel Desailly in 2004.
However he was one of the first managers in England to play a lot of black players in his West Brom team.
How nice.
It seems the effort to smear Legg and Kelly is becoming cross-party.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/10/mps-hit-out-at-both-legg-and-kelly.html
Best Footballer on this issue by a million zillion miles.
Lilian Thuram, France’s most capped player, last night hit back at suggestions by Jean-Marie Le Pen that there were too many “players of colour” in the national side, denouncing the National Front leader as being ignorant of the make-up of his country’s society.
The 34-year-old Juventus centre-half won his 118th cap against Spain on Tuesday and, hailing from the French Caribbean island of Guadeloupe, is one of 16 non-whites in France’s 23-man squad. He and his team-mates learned of Le Pen’s comments immediately prior to the second-round match in Hanover, which Les Bleus won 3-1, with the 2007 French presidential candidate having reheated his criticisms of the 1998 side - which he denounced as “artificial” - by arguing it was not reflective of French society.
Le Pen, who was runner-up to Jacques Chirac in the 2002 presidential elections having beaten the Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin to the second round, had insisted that France “cannot recognise itself in the national side” and that “maybe the coach exaggerated the proportion of players of colour and should have been a bit more careful”.
“What can I say about Monsieur Le Pen?” said Thuram ruefully. “Clearly, he is unaware that there are Frenchmen who are black, Frenchmen who are white, Frenchmen who are brown. I think that reflects particularly badly on a man who has aspirations to be president of France but yet clearly doesn’t know anything about French history or society.
“That’s pretty serious. He’s the type of person who’d turn on the television and see the American basketball team and wonder: ‘Hold on, there are black people playing for America? What’s going on?’
“When we take to the field, we do so as Frenchmen. All of us. When people were celebrating our win, they were celebrating us as Frenchmen, not black men or white men. It doesn’t matter if we’re black or not, because we’re French. I’ve just got one thing to say to Jean Marie Le Pen. The French team are all very, very proud to be French. If he’s got a problem with us, that’s down to him but we are proud to represent this country. So Vive la France, but the true France. Not the France that he wants.”
That brought a round of applause from the assembled media, with Thuram equally baffled by Le Pen’s criticism that some of the players, and primarily the World Cup-winning goalkeeper Fabien Barthez, are failing to sing La Marseillaise. “Whether you sing it or not doesn’t make you any more or less French,” he said. “Maybe we should invite Monsieur Le Pen to celebrate our next victory with us. Then he’d see that we are fiercely proud to be French and he might change his mind. Actually, he’s got too much to lose by changing his mind, hasn’t he?”
The sham party = lib dems,mr dale has a point
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
486. Sean Fear
Do you need to ask?
Marcus Wood has gone down in my estimation.
I wonder if he genuinely believes that or is just trying to ingratiate himself with the party leadership?
Time to put some money of the LibDems in Torbay? 7/4 at Ladbrokes, interesting…..
The All Women Short List has not really helped Labour. How many of the Blair Babes were out of their depth, and how many of them were effective ministers?
Cameron ought learn from Labour’s mistakes.
492 Can you prove that AWS weren’t applied in Torbay?
Much has been posted here as regards HenryG’s assessment last night on PB.com of David Miliband’s prospects of succeeding Gordon Brown as Labour Party Leader. Odds of 7/1 certainly looked stonking good value and he’s still available at 6/1. Iirc, he was priced down to around 2/1 in early summer 2008, when it appeared likely he would challenge for the top job.
At post #387 on last night’s thread, Henry also had this to say about the future Chairmanship of the Party, where Barry Sheerman is said to be putting his name forward:
“On topic Tony Lloyd is a steal at evens. He should be 1/3 at most.”
Not surprisingly, PP have since shortened Lloyd’s price from evens to 4/6, but taking Henry at his word, this is still twice the price he suggested as being fair value.
I wonder how many fraudulent votes will be stuffed into ballot boxes in the Afghan election run-off?
Twice as many or half as many?
It makes no difference. This is a deeply flawed electoral mockery. How the hell can any policy be made on it’s outcome?
To be fair the BNP are not unique in using the military for political purposes -you only have to look at Afghanistan and Iraq to see that
Just read about DC endorsing AWS. What the hell is he playing at? We are meant to believe in democracy and localism, not this bigoted socialist crap. The party really need to butt out of constituency affairs before this gets any worse. Besides, associations are picking women in proportion to the proportion of women on the list, this wouldn’t foster equality it would cause discrimination against men.
Nevermind Rio Ferdinand, as someone said on CiF last night stick Amir Khan, David Haye or even Frank Bruno on the panel. Then Griffin could personally suggest they go ‘home’
I think on an occasion like this it would be the perfect occasion to have a comic on the panel, because that’s what the show will need on Thursday. A shame that Richard Herring isn’t available really. Would be there do ridicule both Griffin and his views.
496. Yes remember Gordo flying off to war during the Con conference last year.
499, year before last. Time flies when your country’s run by a one-eyed Scottish idiot.
498. Who is David Haye?
497 That’s what I find really odd. The proportion of women candidates roughly reflects the proportion of the candidates’ list who are women.
Yet, it appears that associations are expected to choose women in preference to men, rather than to behave in an even-handed manner.
This will annoy Conservative members, while appealing to nobody except the kind of people who’d never vote for us if you paid them.
498 - Suggesting that an implied threat of violence is a way to resolve disputes is the best way to deal with the BNP?
Your comedian idea is much better.
501 - He’s a boxer, who has won 22 out of his 23 fights, 21 via Knockouts.
503, someone like David Mitchell would be quite good in that role.
494 I’m hoping that my profit from David Miliband becoming Labour’s next leader and Tony Lloyd becoming its next Chairman will pay for my subscription to Henry’s great tennis subscription service for 2010.
Failing that, Tony Lloyd winning will pay for David Miliband not doing so!
501 http://sports.popcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/david-haye-scared-of-the-Klitschkos.jpg
And he’s jolly articulate too.
501 British (or ‘British’ as Griffin would have it) cruiserweight boxer but now a heavyweight.
505 I like him but he can be a bit too clever a la Clive Anderson.
His article in the Guardian last week was very funny
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/18/david-mitchell-politics-hypocrisy
OT seems to be morphing into ‘Mock the Question of Sport’
501,david haye.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Haye
505 - Oh god no. I was in the audience of Have I Got News for You last year. He’s such a partisan.
Was the week after Damian Green had been arrested, and he stated that in his opinion it’s a shame that more Tory MP’s have been arrested.
Ian Hislop just looked at him in amazement.
442/5 - he’s a bit Dorian Grey!
Marcus- candidate I want to be an MP and am being pressured, and not in a subtle way, to tow the party line on this. However the party line is wrong here, very clearly and obviously wrong. We need people like you batting for the members.
512 - Have been = Haven’t been
500 Morris dancer sounds like you support the BNP.
I don’t actually think violence should be implied, I would just much prefer to see the likes of Griffin call for people to go home to their faces, if the happen to be 6ft boxers then so be it.
502 - isn’t it the case that in the past the biggest inhibitor to the number of female candidates has been the attitude (and votes) of female members?
512, I concur he’s a leftist, but I also believe he’d do a good job of dismantling Griffin.
514- I seem to have inserted the word candidate at a random juncture
516, which part of my statement do you disagree with?
He’s Scottish.
He’s one-eyed.
He’s an idiot.
The only disputable point is the last one.
519 Surprised the BBC haven’t offered the comedian slot to Jim Davidson
519 - The two comedians I think could really dismantle Griffin would be Frankie Boyle and Jimmy Carr.
As with Mosely’s blackshirts, I don’t think Griffin could cope with being mocked repeatedly.
PG Wodehouse, we owe you a great debt.
New thread up.
519 Morris Dancer
He is the wrong sort of comedian. I think he’s hilarious but people like David Mitchell, Armando Ianucci, or Charlie Brooker aren’t going to persuade BNP waverers not to vote for them.
Frankie Boyle would be a much better choice.
524 Frankie Boyle and Jimmy Carr would ensure nobody was watching though as two worst comedians you could not meet
504. Thanks. Wasn’t Eubank a boxer, too? Why not put him on for a laugh.
[498] - It has been suggested that Lenny Henry would have been good to put on, but then he might not have wanted to do it.
Sean Fear and others.
It is a bit frustrating when, as I have today, I post a long and full explanation for my views and some people elect to pick one line and beat me over the head with it.
I am not recommending AWS, I do not like AWS, I think AWS selections blight the careers of the women selected, I would prefer anything else and recommend the use of all other methods in preference.
But if all other methods fail I would not *rule it out* as a last resort on purely idealogical grounds as it seems you would.
Just as I wouldn’t rule out on idealogical grounds a Conservative Government ever offering financial support to a large regional employer, increasing tax, or ever spending more on the welfare state for example.
Lenny Henry might actually be a worst comedian than Jimmy Carr come to think of it
272 - interesting article in the FT yesterday about Debt. The three large Western countries with the biggest problems?
Spain, USA and UK
Not France, Germany or Italy
Great tactical move by Dave on all women shortlists. He will infuriate Tory associations, leading to a load of Swivel eyed right wing nutters appearing on television condemning him, thus improving the tory polling position by a few points. Most voters could not give a stuff about shortlists as they generally hate all politicians, but they need to know the Tories have really changed. This will do the trick.
JARHEAD - Day Fourteen
Timeline : 20th April 2010. 2.45pm
Location : Auchentennach. The Scottish Highlands.
Dramatis Personae : Charlie Brockleton
………………………………………….
Charlie Brockleton sat in the bus stop shelter with only an elderley and garalous old woman for company She looked ninety if she was a day and cut a slightly shabby but fadded elegant look especially with that red and green tartan Inverness cape. But God could she talk. However Charlie was a decent young man and nodded and interjected politely at intervals. He had thoroughly enjoyed his ten days helping in the constituencies of Charlie Kennedy and John Thurso and nothing was going to spoil his last day in the region.
Charlie had to return to his PhD studies at Glasgow University. He was already slightly behind his research timetable into post mediaeval Scottish fortified houses and was determined not to fall further behind. There was still one visit to pay - Auchentennach Castle, some six mile distant and one of the finest examples of sixteenth century Scottish architecture.
Charlie hadn’t noticed that the old lady had stopped talking. He glanced over to her and was astonished to see her using one of the latest nokia mobile phones. It rang. She spoke a few words of gaelic and then told Charlie that the local bus had broken down and that the local butchers van would take him to Auchentennach on its way to Alness.
Charlie was very grateful for the lift. The prospect of sitting in the shelter for another few hours with the lady, despite her good samaritan deed, filled him with dread. It what seem only a minute or so the white butchers van pulled up beside the shelter - Auchentennach Provisions - purveyor of fine meat, game and fish to the aristocrasy and cogniscenti since 1741. This was some van, just like a Bentley was just some car.
The driver beckoned Charlie to the van and he sat next to the driver. The van eased away on the long straight road out of the village. Charlie glanced into the passenger side mirror and was surprised to note an old black Rolls Royce stop at the bus stop.
If the old lady could talk for Scotland the driver was the stark opposite. Not one word passed his lips for the whole journey to the main gates of Auchentennach Castle. He stopped, Charlie thanked him for the lift, He nodded and was gone.
The castle couldn’t be seen from the road but he had been told that a track by the roadside woodland next to the post box led to a splendid vista of the fortified house. It was true. It had taken Charlie almost fifteen minutes until he cleared the woodland. Wow thought Charlie. He had seen the photos in the academic books but nothing had prepared him for the astonishing architectural sight that filled his view or for the crashing blow to the head that ended it.
Charlie wasn’t sure how long he’d been out cold. An hour, maybe two. He was gagged and trussed up either side of a pony and was looking directly into the face of a recently deceased stag, the horns of which sometimes nudged his head. The pony stopped. Charlie was dragged down and was pulled past the wheels of an old black Rolls Royce, past the huge iron yett of the castle and into the main entrance hall of the castle.
Charlie’s eyes danced around, the Scottish broadswords, the targes, old master pictures and family portraits and then a red and green Inverness cape thrown over a large oak settle. Charlie’s mind raced as he was again pulled down a series of stone steps into a vast vaulted room filled with modern technology and …. and antique racks. What was that smell. Charlie sniffed the air - Pastry. Here was he trussed up like a bird for owen and upstairs was the cook making apple pie !!
Charlie was strapped onto a rack and moved into a vertical position. He faced a 60 inch screen. He also faced an aged Scotsman in the full regalia of what he believed to be a laird of some importance. The laird walked towards Charlie, took out his dirk and plucked out Charlie’s right eye.
The scream was gutteral, piercing and primeval. The eye for the laird was meaty, jelly like and tasty. The laird removed a small silver nineteenth century military surgeons sewing kit from his sporran. He proceeded among Charlie’s continuing screams to sew wide open the remaining eye. It was a precise and medically highly accurate job. The laird didn’t speak - another one that didn’t speak.
The laird pointed a remote control at the screen. A montage began ….
Thatcher - “Where there is discord, may we bring harmony, where there is doubt, may we bring faith and where there is …..
“You turn if you want too …. The lady’s not for turnng ..”
“Rejoice, rejoice at that news ….
The film ran on with the Greatest Hits of the Conservative Party …. minute by minute, hour by hour but every fifteen minutes after the sixth hour a notice glared out from the screen :
“Press The Red Button To End Your Life”
Thirteen hours and four minutes the film ran on for before the gibbering wreck that Charlie One Eye had become placed his thumb on the red button and pushed. It was a record.
Two weeks passed, Charlie Brockleton was in the game larder next to the stag he had taken his final journey with. The laird thought it was time. Meat needed to be hung in preparation for the estates award winning pies. The laird logged onto one of the computers and a favoured site. He typed :
“Good Morning Pie Loving Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide”
The laird laughed, how he laughed. He then phoned the butcher - Auchentennach Privisions - Purveyors Of Fine Meat……
Miliband is not quoted at http://www.FreeEurope.info