Will Gord be getting a post-card from Pete and Dave?
October 23rd, 2009
Is there really plotting going on?
On Wednesday we ran a thread based on a comment from our reliable north eastern Labour contributor, HenryG, suggesting possible moves over the leadership involving Peter Mandelson and South Shields MP and foreign secretary, David Miliband.
Last night while all the focus was on Mr. Griffin the “Mole” in the online newspaper, The First Post, carried more speculation noting that this weekend Peter Mandelson is travelling to South Shields to give the annual “South Shields Lecture.
As Rachel Sylvestor in the Times wrote “It would be fascinating to hear their private conversation.” Maybe it was getting a whiff of this that prompted HenryG’s comment? I don’t know.
It’s very east to jump to conclusions but you just get a sense that something might be in the air.
For since rescuing Brown in the aftermath of the June 4th election disasters and the Purnell resignation Mandelson has been the Prime Minister’s personal political life-support machine. If Mandy decided to switch it off then who knows what could happen?
The Mole column makes the point that if there is to be a change then it would have to be generational - and that means one of the Milibands or Balls.
This is going to go on.
Mike Smithson
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The Foreign Secretary is very good for the Tories.
But leader of the awful NuLabour? That he ain’t going to be.
They should decide it by having the Milibands and Balls fight it out in a cage, or on top of poles like on Gladiators. The winner gets a paper crown and a weekend vacation from Peter Mandelson and also gets to be PM for almost a year.
one thing is for certain, straw by name straw by nature.
he could not be a caretaker at the local school let alone as a pm if cyclops stood down on grounds of either insanity or ill health.
that leaves balls squared and millipede squared, and harperson, with them all carrying more baggage than naomi campbell after a flight.
Why now though? Changing leader now is the worst possible timing. Changing earlier there was a chance of repairing the damage that the change will cause, now there is no chance.
Paddy Power - Who will be the Next Leader of the Labour Party?
Alan Johnson 11/8
David Miliband 5/1
E Miliband 6/1
Harriet Harman 7/1
James Purnell 12/1
Jon Cruddas 12/1
Peter Mandelson 14/1
Jack Straw 18/1
Ed Balls 20/1
Alistair Darling 22/1
John Denham 25/1
A Burnham 25/1
Hilary Benn 33/1
John McFall 40/1
Yvette Cooper 40/1
Douglas Alexander 50/1
C Flint 50/1
Liam Byrne 66/1
John Hutton 66/1
Alan Milburn 66/1
John Mc Donnell 66/1
Dianne Abbot 80/1
Hazel Blears 80/1
Tony Blair 100/1
Charles Clarke 100/1
Jacqui Smith 100/1
The foreign affairs chief of the UK’s opposition Conservatives has warned European ambassadors privately that backing Tony Blair as European Union president would be a “mistake” that would set back relations if the party came to government.
William Hague, shadow foreign minister, delivered the warning at a gathering of ambassadors to the UK from EU member states as the Conservatives stepped up their campaign to scupper the unofficial candidacy of the former prime minister from the ruling Labour party.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/acb24372-bea1-11de-b4ab-00144feab49a.html
Ladbrokes - 1st President of the EU Council
Tony Blair 5/4
Jan-Peter Balkenende 4/1
Jean-Claude Juncker 5/1
Paavo Lipponen 6/1
Felipe Gonzalez 8/1
Mary Robinson 8/1
Fogh Rasmussen 12/1
Guy Verhofstadt 14/1
Wolfgang Schlussel 14/1
Francois Fillon 16/1
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen 16/1
Herman Van Rompuy 20/1
Giuliano Amato 25/1
Bertie Ahern 25/1
Martti Ahtisaari 33/1
Dora Bakoyannis 33/1
Ursula Plassnik 33/1
Chris Patten 50/1
Costas Karamanlis 66/1
Angela Merkel 100/1
Gordon Brown 100/1
I took in all the excitement about Ed Milliband next Labour Leader. Looking through my portfolio I note that I have him at 150.0 for Next PM.
Something strange to mention to Peter the Punter and others who are getting excited.
I was one of the first to tip EM because he was such a huge price but also because of the Copenhagen factor. Seeing him at the Conference dampened my enthusiasm quite considerably and in fact I thought that his older brother performed far better.
Anyway. The ’something strange’ is that at many times there has been disproportionate money AGAINST EM becoming next PM.Right now there is £150 at 25.0 if you want to Back him.This is a huge offer in the context of a small market.
I know that ‘Next Labour Leader’ has different implications to ‘Next Prime Minister’ so maybe your hopes reside in Gordon soldiering on.
‘Osborne remains on track in Glasgow North East despite missing voter’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6886316.ece
Would Miliband Sr. even want the job before the election?
OGH and others have mooted the thesis that a Leadership challenge might come if Labour were seen to be doing *well* in the polls.
Since then of course, three consecutive polls have shown them seventeen points behind Big Blue.
In those circumstances( desperation) I can’t see either of the Millibands wanting the role of Labour leader and PM for fifteen minutes.
2. Wrestle naked smoothered in chip fat in a lions cage at the zoo.
anyone got the odds on tories and liberals losing their deposits at glasgow north east yet? i would have thought both were odds on certainties.
lovely story about the tory voter in glasgow by the way.
“10.Would Miliband Sr. even want the job before the election?”
I could see it if it was agreed beforehand to be just until after the election with a job lined up in Babylon as his reward e.g foreign minister i.e the job Darth Mandelson wants.
PM for a couple of months, then a one term Tory government followed by Prime Minister Miliband for the next three terms. That, one imagines, is the prize.
15 - if only. sadly it won’t happen. we’re f****ed.
Just got chance to watch QT, my verdict
Nick Griffen: mission accomplished. While he won’t win over many new converts, just by appearing he has added an extra level of legitimacy for his party. He generally chortled his way through rather than allow himself to get rattled. Given what he had to defend, and despite the odd slip, I’d score him 7.5/10
Chris Huhne: I set a low threshold for someone I regard as a poor performer…a threshold he alas failed to reach. The weakest of the panel, resorting to a naff claim that the only way to beat the BNP was to elect…LibDems. 3/10
Bonnie Greer: Tried to patronise Griffen, the only way you can be an indigenous Brit apparently is to be a neanderthal. 4/10
Jack Straw: Lots of prepared material, tried hard. Totally outshone by the good Baroness. Made a dubious claim about outcome of WWI/WWII without Indian Army. Jack’s time has come, and gone. 6/10
Baroness Warsi: Star of the show. Nicely deflected even Griffen’s effective points. Highlight for her was however turning to Jack Straw and telling him to tell the truth on immigration. 9/10
Notice the papers this morning suggesting Milliband could be the first EU foreign minister once the Lisbon treaty is signed off. Wonder if this is Gordon trying to prevent this plot from succeeding by taking out the main player!!!
17 Fraser Nelson made the point that just by turning up Griffin could win some more votes. The next (BNP) poll will be interesting.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5462043/griffin-has-achieved-exactly-what-he-hoped-to.thtml
13. redcliffe62 - “anyone got the odds on tories and liberals losing their deposits at glasgow north east yet?”
Not that I am aware of redcliffe.
Query: why do you never use capital letters at the beginning of sentences? Call me a traditionalist, but personally I prefer to observe the niceties of basic written communications.
18 Maybe it’s a way of removing David so that Ed can run?
Fear not - the recession will be officially over today (+0.00001% or so) - the Great Gordo has saved the Uk - Labour landslide in May.
Bad polls for Obama
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6409721/Barack-Obama-sees-worst-poll-rating-drop-in-50-years.html
I think that someone really ought to tell William Hill that John Swinburne (SSCUP) has withdrawn his candidacy. Smeato only becomes value at 50/1.
William Hill - Glasgow NE by-election
Labour 2/5
SNP 15/8
John Smeaton - Jury Team 25/1
Conservatives 100/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Greens 100/1
Mikey Hughes - Independent 100/1
Solidarity 100/1
Scottish Senior Citizens 200/1
Scottish Socialist Party 200/1
BNP 300/1
20 You can’t fight your inner-Tory Mr Dickson. Buy yourself a blue rosette, you know you want to
19 - Fraser Nelson wrote that before the programme.
I suspect he will have changed his opinion after Griffin became a scared wee shaky man, laughed at by the audience and demolished by a British Asian woman,
stuart, i do use capitals on occasion, for countries in examples such as the UK and for the EU, and also when i want to do so FOR EMPHASIS.
it has taken me long enough to put paragaphs in, give me a break lad.
good grief, you will ask me to spell check next……………!
26 - Peter Hoskin thought that still held, after the programme.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5463178/the-laughter-will-have-hurt-griffin.thtml
Perhaps Roger can give us the ad-man’s take on exposure. Is there such a thing as bad advertising?
19 I thought the same before the programme-at that stage, Griffin just needed to keep it calm and do a mediocre job and the protests and calls for it to be banned would have done the job for him.
But he turned in such an inept performance, that it didn’t matter.
25. Dave B - “You can’t fight your inner-Tory Mr Dickson.”
One can take the bairn out of the Edinburgh private school, but one cannot take the Edinburgh private school out of the bairn.
21. That’s a thought.
If Labour has any desire to survive for longer than a couple more parliaments, they will reject both the Milibands and Balls.
30 I shall mark you down as a ‘possible’ none-the-less
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_westminster_hour/8293127.stm
Independence aside, do the SNP fit into the big gov’t/small gov’t dividing line? I believe Plaid are ‘Old Labour’ plus Welsh nationalism. Do the SNP fit into a Labour/Tory divide, or is their platform different?
If there is a ‘plot’ arranged by Mandelson to install Miliband, I remain of the view that the execution of it will be after the General Election. I imagine the key points of the narrative will be something like:
- New Labour under Blair won 3 elections
- Brown deviated from New Labour, increasing top rate taxes and p*ssing off the middle class Blair worked so hard to win over (amongst various others).
- New Labour didn’t lose the election; Brown did.
- Restoring Labour’s fortunes means restoring the New Labour project.
- Miliband is not to blame as most of Brown’s failures are domestic and he was Foreign Secretary (nobody mention Iraq, please - I don’t know about that; I was in Brussels at the time)
- The Tories will upset all sorts of people by implementing unnecessary cuts therefore Labour needs someone in place who can win in 2014/5 and won’t scare the children.
- Miliband has the necessary experience, persona and profile to be that man.
There are various flaws in the argument but it is at least saleable; much more so than Miliband pre-election where a bad defeat will tarnish badly not only DM’s reputation but that of Mandelson’s New Labour.
David @ 29
If Nick Griffen was so inept, perhaps the BBC will invite him more often.
35 I hope so. The more exposure he gets, the more he’ll crumble. He has zero charisma, is a poor debater and holds repugnant views. All these came over in abundance.
17. Oddly enough, I’d rate them almost exactly opposite (except Griffin who I thought did fairly well).
37. Relatively speaking of course, expectations were set so low and there was no knockout punch laid on him.
35 - I thought QT was a shambles last night. Dimbleby failed to keep things tight and in good order. By allowing all but 4 minutes of the entire show to be given over to “the BNP and Griffin issue”, with no other questions on the major issues of the day, it turned into “the kick Nick Griffin show”. Why was Straw allowed to prattle on with his long pre-prepared waffle and for Dimbleby and Huhne to read out long lists of quotes and things they’d found on YouTube? (I didn’t realise our politicans spent so much time surfing YouTube…) There was so much to get in that they could have been asked to quickly answer the questions with some focus. They could have had a good 25-30 mins on the immigration question posed by the audience as the 2nd question, which would have allowed sufficient time to expose Griffin’s odious and confused views, and then moved on to other issues and see what Mr Griffin has to say (if anything) on the economy, Afghanistan, Lisbon and the EU, the Royal Mail.
Did anybody actually get anything out of last night? Was it really worth all the grief, civil disruption and injured police officers that the loony left inflicted on us?
A missed opportunity.
A flawed philosophy that bolsters the BNP
“The chatter of the chattering classes fades to a whisper whenever cultural difference comes up. That’s why extremists flourish.”
A very good article on Moral Relativism which is well worth reading.
“It is so easy to be a moral relativist. It means never thinking through an argument, never offending anyone, never feeling as if you are channelling the unsavoury views of a lunatic fringe.”
“So, paralysed by our inherited relativism, fearful of seeming racist and adrift in a Godless world, we fall silent just when we should be debating and talking. Into this silence strides Nick Griffin, Britain’s own fascist hobgoblin. If he is the only one talking about immigration, or the role of women in Islam or the sense of alienation and disenfranchisement felt, rightly or wrongly, by some white Britons, then his voice will be amplified. He is shouting while we whisper. If his voice is heard above ours, we have only ourselves to blame.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6886174.ece
33. Dave B
We describe ourselves as social democrats, and that is a pretty fair summary of the general approach the SNP takes to policy.
However, the membership is a very braid kirk. Personally, I am on the right of the party, on economic policy anyway. Eg. I am strongly in favour of free market economics. My party is less dogmatic: we tend to advocate a fair bit of regulation and intervention. As do every other mainstream party, not least the Tories.
People talking about Straw and the rest looking like they were all reading from prepared notes makes it sound like the whole week was staged, with the relentless publicity for days aimed at getting the biggest possible audience for a climactic ritual slaughter.
Half-worked maybe.
just watched QT myself. terrible decision to host in west london and have an audience so utterly unrepresentative of ‘real’ people. i abhor griffin but ended up feeling sorry for him! why not next week get adam crozier on and have an audience of postmen…
while media-land, student grant and millie tant get all smug about it, no one who previously voted BNP will have changed i’m sure, and he probably got a few more converts.
as for the peace-loving scumbags hurting policemen in my beautiful shepherd’s bush…words fail me
I’ve thought since June that if Brown was to be ousted Mandy would be prepared to do it, if things got bad enough - not the more or less impotent backbenchers (at least not under their own steam). I always thought his bail-out was conditional. Now Mandelson is surely motivated by the conjunction of a 17 point deficit in 3 polls combined with backbench disaffection at an all time high post Legg. Mandelson has the will and ability to do the deed and save the party he loves from oblivion. The real trouble is there are no outstanding candidates waiting in the wings to take-over.
BTW sorry to show my ignorance but what does OGH stand for - something to do with Mike S.?
As ever, Matt makes me laugh.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=6411403&cc=6248709
Our Genial Host
45.
I thought Saeeda Warsi did well in a calm and measured way, in contrast to the “turned up to 11″ outrage and hectoring on the part of Huhne and Straw. Shame that she got prematurely elevated to the Lords - am sure she could have been found a winnable seat and been an effective Commons performer, with some democratic legitimacy.
46. Thanks Mr Jones - a very fitting moniker.
39 Agreed - oddly the only real politics was the immigration question, which could have been put in any QT and where talking on a policy that is high in voters concerns the other parties talked about policy rather than the BNP.
40 In all the acres of comment I was struck by Gimson’s Sketch in the Telegraph, particularly this bit
“Perhaps the most striking aspect of this programme was not Mr Griffin, with his childish provocations, but the deep anxiety which he inspired in our political class as represented by Mr Straw, Lady Warsi and Chris Huhne for the Liberal Democrats…….
……Another member of the audience said the obvious way to express your anger was to vote for the BNP.
And that is clearly true: voting BNP is a way of terrifying other politicians. Mr Griffin has a future if other politicians fail to address the anxieties and insecurities of his potential supporters.”
Obvious but little said anywhere else.
41 - Stuart Dickson - Thanks.
I’ve known that Mandelson was speaking at Miliband’s lecture for some months. It was publicised on his website. My information about a shift in allegiences came from Westminster.
Is it wrong that a comment posted on here last night, still has me angry?
43 - Coops. The audience member who said that the vast majority of the population abhor Griffin and the BNP and all they stand for was close to the mark - 90-95% do. To that extent, the audience was probably a fair reflection of society.
Griffin won’t care. He’s not interested in speaking for them but for the 5-10% who do or might vote for his party. That’s enough to be going on with as far as he’s concerned. Besides, as you rightly point out, looking the victim does him no harm in his own constituency who see themselves in the same light.
Still, he wasn’t all that impressive. Rather than attacking Straw’s father, he’d have been far better off digging up some quotes from Straw’s own past. He must have known that things he’s alleged to have said would be thrown at him and not having an answer as to which were a true quote looked inept. A better politician would have turned the question into whether he believed it now - and used the political journey of someone like Straw as justification.
Even so, the programme revolved around Griffin and that can only be to his and the BNP’s benefit. Had the Beeb and the other parties’ representatives treated it as any other programme, with questions on Royal Mail and other regular issues, Griffin would have been exposed as out of his depth. Instead he was given the chance to play to his strengths. He didn’t take them all but that’s not really the point.
Bit winter 1979 in South Yorkshire today, postal strike, firefighters strike, bus strike.
Still at least the binmen strike hasn’t spread yet from Leeds.
TSE, is that Mark Senior? His hatred for all things remotely associated with Tories is notorious
56 - Yes.
46. Really? I thought it stood for Our Great Helmsman, but I am a former Leftie.
56 - Yes. Normally I can dismiss out of hand anything rubbish said by him, or any other numpty on the internet. But last nights comment had me seething, like never before.
He was way out of order, and unapologetically rude about it as well.
David Herdson up above - it is not in Mandelson’s DNA to play for the time after an election defeat. Not when the recent history is that once in, governments tend to stay for several terms.
Mandelson will be thinking of the Bob Hawke option, if he is thinking of anything
Brown actually does appear to be a “dead man walking” in the way John Major was. He appears focused only with not leaving any hostages to fortune.
Ed is by some way the better Milliband - but he’s inexperienced and this risks being exposed over a campaign. All the options look bad for Labour
On thread, can anyone give me a reason why Mandelson would want to keep Brown in power in June then remove him later on in the year.
Surely the best scenario for Labour was to remove Brown in June, replacing Brown now, just smacks of desperation.
59 Well my generalised comment on some of the Tory posters on here clearly struck a chord with you . Ay least the racist Martin ( not real name ) Day who most of you are apologists for was not posting last night .
In an hour we’ll probably hear that the economy grew by 0.2% last quarter, resulting in ‘recession over, Gordon Brown saved the world’ headlines.
For the full picture take a look at the ONS report and see which parts of the economy are actually growing.
Not sure if this has been posted yet but another of Tedious Tim’s smears comes undone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6409202/Far-right-Tory-EU-allies-not-on-radar-says-US.html
For the first time ever, I watched QT from beginning to end. Barring Warsi, who was adequate, the rest were dreadful–especially Dimbleby. Griffin was under-prepared, and yet nobody landed a blow.
The scary thing is that a fluent and articulate leader of the BNP could have doubled their vote last night, seeing the limp standard of his opponents’ arguments.
The morning after : Backlash against BNP Question time stitch-up?
Small anecdotal sample obviously but my mum ( staunch Tory and Daily Mail reader and has previously displayed moderate antipathy towards Griffin ) is fuming at the treatment of him from a biased QT audience and media.
The absolute drivel plastered across every newspaper in Britain today beggars belief.
The BNP must have hit a raw nerve : I have never been so excited about the potential for Nationalist politics in Britain as I am today.
The public reaction to Question Time on “”Have Your Say” is interesting, particularly the highly recommended comments, which largely support Griffin’s right to be heard.
I suspect the BNP will get a lift in the polls because of QT, - not because of Griffin’s performance which was embarrassing, but because of the behaviour of the other panelists and the audience and the whole setup of the programme.
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&forumID=7145&edition=1&ttl=20091023083804&#paginator
PS I think Straw has blown it for next Labour Leader.
63 - Bollocks, if you knew my skin colour, you knew what rubbish you were talking last night.
As a gesture of goodwill to you, if you can name me any current Lib Dem MP’s who are either black or asian, I’ll donate £100 to the Lib Dems.
62
TSE
Simple. Lisbon. If Brown had gone there was a good chance an election would have been forced in which case Lisbon would have fallen. If he is anything, Mandelson is a fanatical servant of the EU. That to my mind is the only reason he has continued to support Brown.
64 - The scenario i forsee is as you see it. Then in a months time, the growth is downgraded, and infact the economy didn’t grow.
Can you imagine the look on Gordon’s face when that happens.
61. JW
“Ed is by some way the better Milliband - but he’s inexperienced and this risks being exposed over a campaign.”
Ed Miliband is the new David Miliband.
Looks good on paper, well actually he doesn’t (see wiki to find out why), but falls apart on proper exposure.
Neither of the Milibands have any empathy with the average person. In particular they are the wrong people for the WWC vote.
Neither of the Milibands are the new Blair, the closest equivalent is to a young Tony Benn.
Griffin wasn’t great, but what an error to make the whole show about him, the BBC caved in to the media hype. He would have been floored much more effectively by asking about how he would have resolved the postal strike. Then q2 about whether Britain was coming out of recession and how to keep it out.
He would have been seen to have little grasp of the day to day issues going on.
Although charmless, he probably had the right idea playing the victim card and laughing off some of the wittier attacks, so he’ll likely be pleased this morning.
OT.
Warsi was excellent on QT last night, them again I suppose she would look good against that heckling tw4t Huhne and Man of Straw. Seriously though. Would it be possible to get her into a future Tory government, she is far better than most/all of the shadow cabinet?
She could go very very far in government!
69 - My favourite theory, I saw on CiF, was Mandy wanted Brown to lead Labour into the election, so Brown could lead them to one of their worst defeats ever.
This would allow history, and the Blairites for ever to contrast Brown’s General election record with Blair’s.
And that would drive Brown insane.
34
That’s a good narrative assuming NuLabour will not be strangled on its deathbed by the reactionary (progressive?) socialist element in the ragbag of MPs that are left
63 Mark, your comment last night was disgraceful and you should recognise that you overstepped the mark, rather than compound your error by extending the smear with a new variant. I have seen nobody on this board “apologise” for Martin Day’s views - indeed he was roundly condemned by posters on all side for what he said. But there has also a sense of humanity in the board’s response to a guy who clearly has had a very tough time in his personal life over the last year or so and was struggling to cope. He had also built up considerable goodwill over the years with his comic interventions (while irritating plenty of others) and it was inevitable that plenty of people wished him well. Humanity and humour are two traits which you rarely exhibit in your increasingly self-regarding and hysterical posts.
Am I the only person who didn’t stay up to watch QT? Judging by the reaction No Platform was proved to be the wrong approach, as was always the case.
54 “Had the Beeb and the other parties’ representatives treated it as any other programme, with questions on Royal Mail and other regular issues, Griffin would have been exposed as out of his depth.”
I think that’s what Griffin wanted - him sitting there giving BNP views on the week’s events like a regular mainstream politico. He might or might not have been exposed but i think that’s what he was after - normalization. That may have been what he was told was going to happen as well judging by how he seems to have been caught completely off guard.
So BBC ambush tactic that maybe worked well or maybe not, with Griffin’s shell-shocked bad personal performance vs a feeling it was all a bit of a show trial? I’m very 50/50 on what the overall balance might come out as. I think it depends a bit on whether the viewing figures are up significantly or not.
62. Lisbon ratification is the only thing i can think of.
Mike - is that Nicholas Soames napping on the postcard?
Hmm. Only watched QT on and off, but I thought Griffin looked like a tosser.
Nice to hear Warsi reportedly exceeded expectations.
You still don’t get it Mark. It’s the “generalised” bit.
65 The White House on the Latvian SS Friends of Dave:
“We have serious things to think about and this is not one of them.”
End of.
The person who came off worst on the BNP QT “Intolerance” special was our very own Mark Senior….
46
I thought it was ‘Our Gracious Host’.
Oh well.
82 not for Tim sadly.
****Betting post****
David Miliband is widely available at 5/1 for next permanent Labour leader. He can, however, be sold on Sporting Index at 5 (equivalent to laying 4/1 odds, with the additional advantage that you don’t need to tie your money up while the bet is pending).
By selling on SPIN at (say) £10 and betting £50 on David Miliband with Ladbrokes or William Hill, you will lose nothing if David Miliband is not the next permanent Labour leader and win £50 if he is. Scale stakes up or down according to fancy (or alter the proportions of the stakes to 1:4 if you think the value is in him not becoming next permanent Labour leader). Only the stake with the conventional bookies is tied up. It seems unlikely that we shall have to wait more than a year to wait.
62
Err.
But aren’t they desperate?
Haven’t seen QT yet - went to be early last night and Sky+ it as I was shattered - but one thing I will say is that the viewing figures will be phenomenal.
Virtually every single one of my friends (many non-political) had updated their facebook status last night saying they were watching QT and everyone at work is talking about it this morning.
Real question is: who *didnt* watch it?
89 - I didn’t.
85. It’s “Genial” in my world but there may be multiple versions?
90 ditto
What time are the GDP figures released?
89. I didn’t through knowing i’d lose my temper but i feel like i watched it from reading blogs.
93 - 9.30am
If I’d known that South Shields was home to Beach Babes like those two, I’d have paid it a visit. Or perhaps they are hoping to become Tory PPC’s now that Cameron is going for all women short lists. errr is that like they have to be under 5′ 4″?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/10/the-tory-grassroots-deserve-better-from-the-leadership.html
Griffin’s problem is he don’t look the part. Leaders of extreme right wing parties should be physically imposing, although Hitler got a way with it I suppose. Perhaps NG should try growing a moustache.
93 - 9.30
Ooooooo, not long to go to celebrate the end of the recession then.
I found Warsi completely underwhelming and forgettable. I can remember things the others said, the only thing I remember Warsi saying was her trying to say something about ‘there are no fake asylum seekers’ a technical point that can’t be made properly on a forum like QT and hence was a stupid one to try and make.
17 “Jack Straw: …Made a dubious claim about outcome of WWI/WWII without Indian Army.”
Straw was right on that. The efforts of the Indian Army (which of course included troops from modern-day Pakistan and Bangladesh too) in the World Wars is woefully lacking in acknowledgment. This on WW1 is illuminating:
http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/india_and_world_war_one.htm
“When war was declared on August 4th, India rallied to the cause. Those with influence within India believed that the cause of Indian independence would best be served by helping out Britain in whatever capacity India could – including the Indian National Congress. Offers of financial and military help were made from all over the country. Hugely wealthy princes offered great sums of money, and even areas outside of British India offered help – Nepal offered help and in total sent 100,000 Gurkhas and the Dalai Lama in Tibet offered 1000 of his troops to the cause. Despite the pre-war fears of unrest, Britain, in fact, could take many troops and most of her military equipment out of India as fears of unrest subsided. Indian troops were ready for battle before most other troops in the dominions.
Indian troops were on the Western Front by the winter of 1914 and fought at the first Battle of Ypres. By the end of 1915, they had sustained many casualties. Along with the casualties from sickness, the decision was taken to withdraw the Indian Corps from front line duty at the end of 1915.
In total, 800,000 Indian troops fought in all the theatres of the war with 1½ million volunteering to fight. They fought in most theatres of war including Gallipoli and North and East Africa. In all 47,746 were classed as killed or missing with 65,000 wounded.
The Indian Corps won 13,000 medals for gallantry including 12 Victoria Crosses. Khudadad Khan won the Corps first Victoria Cross.
Such was the cost of the war, that India’s economy was pushed to near bankruptcy.
Finally got the first half hour of the Griffin show up, the rest will follow:
Question Time October22nd.
“I didn’t realise our politicans spent so much time surfing YouTube…) ”
You don’t think it normal that they research their opponents before coming on QT? I do. And there’s plenty of juicy stuff about Griffin on the internet. His supporters are fond of saying that the internet means that the “Jewish controlled media” means they can now get their message through without “distortion”. Perhaps they are learning that it’s not just their lies that are on the web.
97
A party - then back to the hopelessness, poverty, despair and crushing debt.
98. Really. I thought she was by far the most superior politician on the panel. Yes, Straw and Huhne were more shouty and aggresive, but that didn’t mean they were the most effective at actually nailing Griffin and his appalling views.
102. Indeed.
Morning all and sorry but “south Shields lecture”. What on? The concept of macroeconomics as it affects a run down former industrial community or how much flour to mix in to achieve a high quality batter for the local cod and chips!
Meanwhile last night was much ado about nothing. The Bonnie woman was excellent. Lady Tory was ok, Huhne was like a child sniping from the sidelines (where he belongs) and as for Jack Straw, the funniest moment of the evening must have been his obvious discomfort when Griffiths told Straw to stop calling him a Nazi because unlike Straw’s father who was a consci and sat out the war in a dry and safe prison cell, Griffith’s father actually fought the Nazis.
When Straw retorted to Griffiths about him being the Justice Secretary, I couldn’t help think of the song from the Mikado, “I am the Lord High Executioner” I thought Straw’s performance was poor and Griffiths dreadful. The audience on the other hand were excellent. Dimbleby went over the score with attacks on Griffiths. He was there to chair the discussion not launch a personal attack on one of his guests. Will it do the BNP any good? Probably at the margins but little else.
Back on thread, I hope Mandy and Millibland plot all weekend. Brown’s going nowhere without a fight so bring it on guys. Let the country watch as you rip one another to shreds.
Warsi came up with several good lines yesterday, and I think one has to be quite delibereate to think otherwise. The BNP quote on Churchill, the demolishing of Griffin’s only coherent argument. She was quiet and determined, and I also think her point about asylum seekers was a good one; if only because getting the language right is important in debating issues properly.
Morning All
According to my mole within the COI (Central Office of Information), employees have been told that once the General Election gets announced they aren’t allowed to spend a penny of their budgets, so are now frantically in ’spendspendspend’ mode, mainly due to the fact that Labour are planning a sneaky early election as they think the only way they can beat the Conservatives is to have a really short campaign. So, if you’re interested, make sure you’ve got 18th March free. If they decide against that, the drop dead date will be 13th May 2010.
Now you know!
98. I agree in part - Warsi was spunky, but not as authoritative as she might have been.
103. I watched it last night, and for me the most important test is the morning after one. What resonates and sticks in the mind. The only thing I remember Warsi saying was foolishly trying to make a pedantic point about ‘fake asylum seekers’ that was never going to go over well.
GDP result:down 0.4%
First?
“the funniest moment of the evening must have been his obvious discomfort when Griffiths told Straw to stop calling him a Nazi because unlike Straw’s father who was a consci and sat out the war in a dry and safe prison cell, Griffith’s father actually fought the Nazis. ”
The obvious comeback to that, which I’m sad no one thought of, was that if his father’s war service is so vital to Griffin, why does he dismiss the war service of the parents of so many black, asian and Jewish people?
99
Interesting.
They may have been withdrawn from frontline service, Western Front, in 1915 but I’m not sure if they weren’t committed again later in the war.
They were most certainly in theatre through to the Armistice and into 1919 (after which I assume they were re-embarked to India)
Longest. Recession. EVER.
Still in recession. Another nail for Mr Brown’s coffin
110, seriously? Isn’t that the bottom end of expectations, and virtually identical to last quarter?
I think you are first. Have a cookie!
You will of course have to come to Leeds to get it, after filling in your Morris Dancer Cookie Application Form, with a standard fee of £25. But worth it, for a cookie
107: Why the 13th, and not the 6th of May?
@110:
Oh dearie me.
Best-placed Britain strikes again.
But Gordon said we were best placed to deal with this recession.
France and Germany are out of recession arent they?
114, I think you’ll find we’re best placed, and have nearly achieved 0% growth.
I had intended a long piece of blatant mockery… but it’s like punching a guy in the face after you’ve already broken his legs and ruptured his liver. Brown and Labour are f***ed.
Somehow I don’t think “Don’t let the Tories ruin it” will cut it as a campaign slogan.
So, another quarter before Britain can start doing what is required to implement cuts.
WHAT A F*CKING DISGRACE THIS GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN.
110 so what was all that spin about a positive figure over the last few says?
121 days
118, they left in Q2, as did Japan, so we’re six months behind, at best.
Should see growth due to Christmas though. Although…. QE ends next month, I think.
Oh dearie me…..green shoots my arse.
Germany OUT
France OUT
UK IN
Labour OUT.
Once again Alastair Darling’s budget has been proved to sooooooooooooooo wrong.
99. Marquee Mark.
That is true for WWI.
Unfortunately, for WWII it is a rather different story. Both my grandparents served in the Indian Army during the 1930s/1940s.
The truth is that an embarassingly large percentage of Indian Army troops were engaged on internal security duties during WWII. There were frequent mutinies in the Royal Indian Navy and the Quit India movement of 1942 caused trouble all over the place. The army was basically keeping a lid on the cauldron until independence could be implemented.
This is why we left in such a hurry.
The Indian Army made a significant contribution to Slims Imperial Fourteenth Army - which reconquered Burma - and they lost a number of troops at the surrender of Singapore but neither were in any means decisive theatres of war and the recapture of Burma did virtually nothing to aid the defeat of Japan anyway.
@121:
Desperation. Hope. Self-deceit. Take your pick.
That GDP figure is horrific
Even the worst cast scenario stuff I was hearing was a drop of 0.2%
This is going to hurt Labour (as well as hurting the rest of us)
112
The Indians also formed the overwhelming majority of Imperial troops fighting against the Turks in Mesopotamia and Palestine as well as Persia and all the way up into Transcaspia in Southhern Russia. Without the Indian Army we would almost certainly have been unable to prosecute the war against Turkey and would have lost our African colonies. In addition they Turks would have been able to commit far more troops to their Eastern front and so bring about the collapse of the Russian army much sooner.
To say they were irreplacable would not be to overstate their contribution.
Let’s hear Gordo explain that one then!
115 - mmm… cookie… Will it keep until the next time I’m in Leeds. Might be some time.
Sterling down about a point on the news (1.66 to 1.65) not a lot in the scheme of things.
The BBC look foolish by the ramping up of the ‘coming out of recession’ line this week by the way.
GDP figures are really quite disastrous - all sectors down, even business services. And the overall figure much worse even than the 0/-0.1% I had feared and that was roughly the bottom of the forecast range.
Q4 I’m sure will be better but for now this is a politically dreadful result for Labour….
I have written about Griffin and him coming on Question Time over at my blog. Overall I think he would rate a poor 1/10, what do others think?
9 For decades when mention was made in Tory circles of Glasgow Springburn, never a happy hunting ground for we chaps in the blue team (except of the footballing variety) chests would be puffed up as someone older than Jack W would pipe up “but Molly Weir is from Springburn”. Molly Weir was the token Tory celebrity from Glasgow Springburn. For anyone unfamiliar with Molly Weir, she was a famous character actress well known for playing “wee wifie” roles in comedies and dramas.
Sad that Labour feels so insecure in Glasgow NE that they have to hide a Tory voter from the Shadow Chancellor.
Morning All,
I like Warsi, but I don’t agree she was impressive last night.
If the three politicians had concentrated on getting their tone right, last night should have been the biggest open goal of their careers. In the event, Straw and Huhne simply came over as hectoring. Warsi, on the other hand, did get the tone right but still didn’t land any punches.
I still like Warsi, and full marks to her by agreeing to go on the programme, but the idea that she could have had a great career in the Commons is laughable.
Rob
134
If the figures had been positive you’d have called them, ‘Labour Spin’ and said they’d been fiddled anyway.
134, hmm. I do think he did worse than the consensus here but I think you’re letting the fact that you’re not really his target audience (unless Irfan Ahmed is short for “Robert Cooper”) cloud your judgement.
Excepting El Griffino, who d’you think was best on the QT panel?
89 - also amazed how many people at work are talking about Question Time this morning. It will have outdone The X Factor at this rate!
It’s just like the morning after the Diana interview on Panorama - another show nobody ever talks about usually. And that got 24m viewers.
136.
You like Warsi, you must be deluded…
GDP is much worse than forecasts. Got a list of 33 forecasts from banks’ economists here. The lowest forecast of any was 0.0% (UBS and WestPac).
137. “134 If the figures had been positive you’d have called them, ‘Labour Spin’ and said they’d been fiddled anyway.”
You’re learning.
126
Casino, that does rather neglect the vital role the Indians played in North Africa and Italy in WW2. Also it neglactes the fact that over 90% of the entire 2.5 million Indian troops who fought in WW2 were volunteers not conscripts.
138 - Mr Dancer, what do you think of this?
Jenson Button could join Lewis Hamilton, the man he replaced as Formula One world champion, in an all-British dream team at McLaren next season.
It is understood McLaren and their title sponsors Vodafone, who contribute £50million a year, would welcome the tantalising line-up.
Although Vodafone were reluctant to comment publicly, a key source close to the company said: ‘Any team would like to have two world champions in their ranks
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/formulaone/article-1222358/EXCLUSIVE-Secret-plan-British-dream-team-world-champion-Jenson-Button-2008-king-Lewis-Hamilton.html
137. So weak
Griffin’s comments about Straw’s father (which caused a gasp from others watching around me) seemed to knock him Jack off balance because until then he had been quite good. However I can’t believe Griffin secured any converts to his cause with a pretty weak performance otherwise. I am not sure what the other parties really have to fear with this self-obsessed buffoon in charge of the odious BNP. Good for the BBC for exposing his inadequacies.
136
Molly Weir was the token Tory celebrity from Glasgow Springburn. For anyone unfamiliar with Molly Weir, she was a famous character actress well known for playing “wee wifie” roles in comedies and dramas.
Famous! as in, she was the maid in, ‘Life with the Lyons’
Good Morning. Happy Christmas.
Britain still in recession tim.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192
132. “The BBC look foolish by the ramping up of the ‘coming out of recession’ line this week by the way.”
I’ve heard that multiple times this morning, I assumed that they get a view on this from someone in the know. I was actually expecting the official figure to be above the forecasts, and the government to begin trumpetting this ‘unexpected’ good news. So it’s officially the longest ever, I wonder if the cumulative drop in GDP is larger than in the 30s?
112: bono publico @ 9:31
Of the Inida Army corps committed to Western Front in 1914, only the Infantry component was withdrawn in 1915, the artillery and cavalry regiments stayed on and were still there at the end. Photos of Indian cavalry at the Battle of the Somme in 1916 and Third Ypres in 1917 are quite common.
The infantry did not return to India but was sent to the Middle East where, supplemented by more volunteer units, it served with distinction in the Mesoptamia Campaign.
Seems to me this is setting the scene for the next stage of UK decline. We exit recession later, with slower growth and fewer prospects.
We’re in the race, already half a lap behind, carrying a handicap.
Hmm.
Desperate spin by the BBC on the GDP figs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm
“GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country.
But the figures could still be revised up or down at a later date, because this figure is only the first estimate.
The economy had contracted 5.2% compared with the same period last year, which was marginally better than the figure of 5.5% in the previous three months. “
141:Economists…what do they know eh?
and colstone…so weak indeed. What level of growth did Darling have in his works of fantasy which he called predictions?
Aside from the fact that on balance I believe that Griffin should not have appeared on QT,I was surprised how poor he was. I expected a far more confident and articulate performance.He was unable to deal with, what was undoubtedly a hostile audience, and come up with any rational argument to support his party.Despite suggestions to the contrary by some posters on this largely Tory message board.
I would agree though, that of the panellists the Tory was the most effective, but this was about Griffin, no one else.
59 TSE did the LibDems not win the dunny-on-the-Wold prish council by-election from Mr N.A. Sty-Tory then?
126 But didn’t Hitler see India as a huge prize? There was clearly a fear in the British Govt. that Bose and his Free India Legion could have set a torch under India (which looked to be well-founded fears, given what happened to India shortly after WW2 ended.
154 - How do you see the BNP doing in Wales at a GE?
144, not sure I can see it. It’d be good, but Raikonnen may well be headed McLaren’s way. Fun speculation though.
151: And its gordon Brown currently doing the running…..He runs a lot you know, he said so.
God help us.
Ed Milliband reminds me of the Mark Corrigan character from “Peep Show”.
Oh dear. Has last night’s attempted televised assassination of Griffin backfired? I’ve spoken to quite a few, politically uncommitted, folk this morning and all those who saw last night’s QT described it as a “show trial”, “disgustingly biased”, a “witch hunt” etc. I reckon the BNP has probably picked up a load of sympathy votes after last night’s one-sided shambles.
Personally, I’m sticking with the Tories. With the recession stubbornly trundling on and debt going into the stratosphere this is no time to indulge ourselves with minority parties.
The imperative is to remove this appalling Labour government at the first opportunity and the only party that can do that is the Tories.
144 - probably floated by Button’s aides to assist his fee negotiations with Brawn. Can’t see it happening. Would be interesting though - but McLaren don’t need another battle of the drivers when they need to focus on beating Alonso’s Ferrari.
I doubt Lewis would be happy about having No 2 on his car whilst his team-mate carries the No 1.
“Growth” figures show Britain was NOT “best placed” - Gordon Brown was WRONG! http://tinyurl.com/ylrakpgless
155 - Well he hasn’t posted any by-election results last night, So i’m assuming not.
But his comments were odious and offensive last night.
144: Two British drivers? I doubt that. Although Button in a top team would be tasty.
153. “153.141:Economists…what do they know eh?”
Economists are very good at talking about what has happened, but as a whole they are f*cking hopeless at forecasting. If the future was easily forecast economists would all be filthy rich and retired.
150
Much obliged.
144 - Further to that.
McLaren last night refused to rule out signing the Formula One world champion, Jenson Button, to partner Lewis Hamilton next season.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/oct/23/mclaren-jenson-button
166 glw - On the contrary. You can always find at least one economist whose forecast turns out to have been spot-on.
The only problem is figuring out in advance which.
137-BBC ramping up NuLabour’s economic polciies as usual.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8320373.stm
How come we never hear abuot prudence (an imaginary girlfriend?) and end to boom and bust any more?
BBC Breakfast this morning was strong on how we were expected to come out of the recession and played a great deal on how it was only people’s perceptions that we weren’t.
Bit embarassing for them, but calamatous for the country.
Well, if anyone was going to persuade me to vote BNP, it was the loud-mouthed troublemakers trying to prevent Nick Griffin appearing on QT.
Then, he spoke.
If anyone was going to persuade me NOT to vote BNP, it was Nick Griffin.
Will the stupid Left ever learn?
It would appear that the BBC narrative was to be about the green shoots / recovery all over the place today but they are now having to change plans…
“Following the unexpected news that the UK economy is still in recession, BBC News is spending the day looking at the state of the economy across the UK and the prospects for recovery.”
168, could well be bargaining to help lower the cost of Raikonnen’s contract.
126
Casino Royale
My father was an adjutant in the Indian Army in WW2 and helped recapture Burma.
The economy.
Anyone who thinks we can survive the next 5 years without a major retrenchment of the state - or an IMF imposed cutback - is a muppet or Gordon Borwn.
157 I don’t see the BNP doing anything anywhere at the GE.Let alone Wales.
What I would say is that politicians on all sides have failed to deal with a public fear of mass immigration, which I first became aware of some 6 years ago, when campaigning for local elections.This took me by surprise(I am not a Daily Mail reader).
As a result parties like BNP and yes, UKIP have gained a foothold.
The BBC (especially Breakfast) should stop doing their ‘pre-news’. Especially when its this wrong.
The number of times they do a ‘figures are expected to show’ or ‘a report is expected to say’.
Suprised they got it this wrong though.
Headline on Guardian saying 8 million watched QT!!
Who had that one their slips.
TSE - chill, fella! This Mark Senior who sees Tory BNP-lite everywhere is the same Mark Senior who didn’t believe that we could be having a recession because THEY ONLY HAPPEN UNDER THE TORIES. The fact that we are in the longest recession EVER demonstrates that his opinion on anything is worth the square root of f*ck all.
173: No doubt a bunch of editors are running around like headless chickens editing all their reports.
But i think Darling said in his budget speech that he expected the UK to start showing signs of growth in the 4th qtr of this year which is now.
Technically he will probably be right.
The market got ahead of itself as usual.
GDP still falling is shocking. Who was spinning that the figure was going to be good? Answer Labour and …..
Saint Vincent de Cable wrote earlier today “I would raise my ‘green shoots’ rating from 1 to 2 out of five. Since the original assessment we have begun to see some of the positive results of a strong, co-ordinated international response to the financial crisis, the continuation of aggressive monetary policy in the UK, and the stimulus from devaluation. After a massive financial heart attack the patient has been stabilised in intensive care and is now showing signs of recovery”
http://tinyurl.com/yj8t6j6
Oh dear St Vince. -0.4% is not a green shoot it is a sign of a dying plant.
179 - “The fact that we are in the longest recession EVER demonstrates that his opinion on anything is worth the square root of f*ck all”
Though at least he didnt make the mistake of claiming that we are in the longest recession ever.
I know very little about economics, as my Bank manager would confirm. So on a scale of 1-10 how fvcked are we? Sensible answers please.
I notice tha the BNP spokesman on the Today programme said that those opposed to the BNP will be feeling pleased with themselves today.
I think that tells you how Griffin did.
“Look, the F2hrer has no clothes!”
175
Just looking up the details on one division, the 4th Indian which served in N and E Africa and Italy. In the course of the war they captured more than 150,000 Axis prisoners and suffered 25,000 casualties. Given that a Division is generally 10-15,000 men that shows the very high casualty rate suffered by the division during the war.
169. “166 glw - On the contrary. You can always find at least one economist whose forecast turns out to have been spot-on.”
I swear to God there was an article in the Economist a few years back about a study that showed fund managers were literally no better than monkeys at picking stocks, and because you pay a management fee you would have been better off with the monkeys. i.e. A few bananas are cheaper than paying for the fund manager’s Porsche.
GDP -0.4% 3rd Q
Thinking back to PMQ’s one of Brown’s sound-bites on his last rants vs Cameron included “they were wrong on the recession, they are wrong on the recovery”.
So clearly he was expecting a positive number too….
182 - Gardening metaphors in politics always remind me of Being There:
“In the garden, growth has its seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.”
188, if the Tories got in they’d ruin the recovery, Blue Rog. We can’t risk the modern day paradise we enjoy under Labour by voting Conservative. It would be chaos.
These figures now put into context Mervyn Kings spat with Darling earlier this week.
Merve does not want to carry on the QE but the govt knows that not to do so will only stall the supposed recovery in its tracks.
Who will win out on this argument?
How will Darling tackle this in his PBR?
152 the worrying thing is they are more frequently revised down not up.
183, Neil, this is from the BBC news front page
UK economy is still in recession
The UK economy unexpectedly shrank 0.4% between July and September, making the recession the longest since records began.
Why are they wrong?
183
Neil, the BBC reports this as the longest recession since records began. So I am not sure MM was so far off the mark.
107 Herbert Proper Snr, would your ‘mole’ be a mailout from a well known gossip website, or it it simply a coincidence that you’ve been blessed with the same information this morning?
I wonder what the borrowing implications are for a 0.4pct downturn in GDP.
I reckon it has to be around £50bn.
164 TSE like his party he is irrelevant and come the General Election he will see just how much the British people agree with my view. Give me Martin Day with all his faults any day.At least he can admit to being wrong.
Now that Griffin has been swamped by the tide of English fair opinion (and all the tabloids today too), is it not the opportunity of a lifetime for UKIP to come in and sweep up the disaffected vote on the right?
Has anyone any idea what the loss to GDP could be from a prolonged postal strike?
135. Easterross
Molly Weir is probably best known to English viewers as ‘Hazel the McWitch’ in the late 70s/early 80s BBC children’s show ‘Rentaghost’.
“It is the first time UK gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955.”
Anytime Mark Senior forecasts something about the economy we can all have a smile about the rot he comes out with. Whilst we endure the financial pain it has brought.
His comment last night was outrageous. However I do not call for a ban like some on the left would do. I just ask OGH to nudge Senior into issuing an apology as any gentleman would do.
If you want an example of the beeb being caught out check their little graphic (recession logo) for the recession!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8321970.stm
The ever deepening divide in the economy:
How NuLabour Britain is doing the splits.
1. A car crash
http://www.smmt.co.uk/articles/article.cfm?articleid=20647
2. Borrowing without the wherewithal.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE59M1H420091023
Banks now the only branch of the economy to keep feathering their own nests.
181
timmo.
Darling said recovery would start in Q3 2009. NOT Q4 as you claim.
He’s useless
197
Borrowing?
Basically you can say all And I mean ALL Darling’s projections are crap… but anyone with nay sense knew that anyway.It’s worth c £30-£75 Billion a YEAR.
In case you missed 178. QUESTION TIME AUDIENCE FIGURES REPORTED AS 8 MILLION… for those who bet on that?
“Made a dubious claim about outcome of WWI/WWII without Indian Army. ”
WW1
3 divisions fought in the Western front in 1914 - 15 when every division counted. They mostly then fought in the middle east.
Some 800,000 Indians fought in WW1.
WW2
the Indian army numbered 2.5 million - the largest all volunteer force in history.
We needed them at Alamein and the Japanese might have won Kohima and Imphal and invaded India without them.
179 - I’m chilled now for my stag weekend starts in just under 8hrs time. What could possibly go wrong.
194 / 195 - MM was clearly wrong. It is not the longest recession ever. Just because quarterly records only began in 1955 does not mean recessions did not exist before then.
184
It is as if the whole country has been on holiday for the past twelve years.
We were a third rate country packing a second rate punch.
The country we are living in will change forever.
Shortly we will be a fourth rate country packing a fourth rate punch.
We will see our standard of living fall behind those of the other major countries of the EU, possibly for a decade or two.
We’re screwed, big time.
TSE,
“what could possibly go wrong.”d
One way rail tickets
Handcuff, lamp post interface
Nudity
Cling film lamp post interface
there’s quite a lot really.
202: From that link:
The figures were “awful with no positive news” according to James Knightley at ING.
“This clearly suggests that the likelihood of an expansion in quantitative easing by £50bn or so over the next quarter is rising, although [it] is not a foregone conclusion.”
The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar following the release of the figures, with traders particularly concerned that the UK may turn out to be the only major economy still in recession.
Only major economy still in recession.
What was that about making the ‘right choices’ every time Gordon?
8m is staggering if that’s the average for the whole hour and not just the peak audience. I think last week’s got just under 3m.
It will mean probably only X Factor, Strictly, Corrie and EastEnders got bigger audiences this week!
194 / 195 - MM was clearly wrong. It is not the longest recession ever. Just because quarterly records only began in 1955 does not mean recessions did not exist before then.
by Neil October 23rd, 2009 at 10:08 am
So what was the longest recession?
So we are still in recesion. Will Brown persist with his ‘ the tories are wrong on the recession and will be wrong on the recovery’ rubbish?
186
Richard Tyndall
Father was injured in WW2 grenade and could never lift one arm properly as a result. He was away from 1942 to 45.. Never talked about it. I read a regimental history and parts of the Burma campaign were grim. He was in most ME ops including Iraq Palestine and Iran…
I still have some Persian rugs (called Persia then) he brought back …although now over 60 years old, they are still in use..
If you go back far enough you can measure recessions by counting tree rings.
its a pity we have had the BNP sideshow last night otherwise lanbour would be finished from the recession news this morning
Niel, would you agree with this statement?
Brown and Darling have overseen the longest British recession since records began?
213
If not the longest recession (1929-32 lasted?) then by far the deepest. 1929 peak to trough UK GDP fell just over 5%.
Clearly the Government doesn’t speak to the Office of National Statistics, given that BBC ramping on recovery would have begun in the No 10 bunker media office.
We may have the run up to Christmas but we have th restoration of the 17.5% VAT rate due in just over 2 months time and the end of the car scrappage scheme will signal a virtual halt to car sales for a year or so. High Street shops are already discounting like mad and most companies have already had to start restocking following on from running them down in the second half of last year and firts half of this year.
Add to that the negative effect on hundreds of thousands of small businesses and mail order businesses of the postal strike which shows little sign of settling and we might be remembering a fall of 0.4% as a happy result in 6 months time!
Spend, spend, spend? No chance. Save, save save I suspect will win the day. The only silver lining to this particular cloud is the fact as Merv has hinted interest rates may stay at 0.5% for the best part of another year. that should allow lots of us on trackers to pay off large lumps of capital on our mortgages, not squander the cash in the shops buying things we dont need.
Vince Cable = unreconstructed Glasgow Labour councillor
214. Gorbon Brown is a berk. Nobody, not even Labour supporters, should pay him any attention. Events have shown Brown’s economic genius to be nothing but a figment of his own imagination.
If Labour have any sense they will dump Brown ASAP.
208 - Neil - Oh for Christ’s sake don’t be such a muppet. In any claim such as the one MM made there is an implicit “since records began”. Rather than trying to weasel out of it you could just apologise.
217
Perhaps they knew…
212 - 7.9m was the average audience. Given how the numbers will have gone down as people tuned in at the start then drifted away to bed/lost interest, it probably means the peak audience was nearer 10m?
143. Indian Army soldiers were almost always volunteers. It was a guaranteed steady source of income and prestige. Conscription would have caused rebellions.
Don’t forget the vast majority of the population didn’t join the Army and it’s this vast pool of support which fuelled the success of Congress.
I don’t doubt that the Indian Army made a significant contribution in other theatres - my Grandfather served in the 8th Army in North Africa - but to suggest that the 8th Army wouldn’t have prevailed without them is inaccurate. They were dwarfed by other Commonwealth divisions.
My contention is with Jack Straws point that they were vital to our victory in WWII.
They helped, and I’m proud of what they achieve, but they weren’t critical to our victory.
185 tim, I think you’re being complacent. Griffin is going to use his QT appearance as an illustration of the multiracial Establishment and media ganging up on the poor old BNP who claim to represent the rights of the WWC. I have a horrible feeling he’s going to end up doing quite well out of the whole affair, regardless of his poor performance on the programme.
I take it the GDP figures rule out the slim possibility of a November or December GE?
221
glw
“If Labour have any sense they will dump Brown ASAP”
If they had any sense, he would never have been Leader.
207 triplets or quads instead of twins!!!
Have a laugh at these berks on the Guardian, printed before this mornings eco news.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/22/recession-recovery-jobs-house-prices
213 Neil - you are correct. I forgot to acknowledge that the UK economy suffered a serious and prolonged recession during the last Ice Age. Flint production slumped for a record consecutive 8,000 quarters.
Pillock.
I refuse to be robbed on a technicality of saying that LABOUR HAS OVERSEEN THE LONGEST RECESSION EVER.
The GDP figures do not bode well - even if they may be rounded up in a month or two.
It seems to me there is a real possibility that we may still be in official recession in the next quarter as well. The Times says its now the longest recession in 54 years.
Its made worse by the talking up in the last few weeks.
A Telegraph on line headline says “After five consecutive quarters of contraction, economists predict growth of 0.2pc during the third quarter of the year” !! Well done Telegraph.
From a betting / political point of view, this has to be a kick in the nuts for Labour.
Nice how neil chooses to argue over a minor point of language rather than deal with the fact that as a nation, we’re f*cked.
222 - If you cant tell the difference between “longest recession EVER” and “longest recession since 1955″ then I cant help you.
156. We *could* - not the same as saying we should - have abandoned India and given it independence and dominion status in 1939 and pulled all our troops out and redeployed them to Britain.
None of that would have prevented us defeating Hitler.
However, I grant you, we’d have probably lost Hong Kong, Singapore & Malaya for good.
99. The Indian army was fantastic in WW1, but frequently a fiasco in WW2.
In Malaya, much of it fell apart even before the Japanese attack. Those left after Singapore were formed into Indian National Army units under Japanese command. They were deployed to Burma, where they also fell apart.
There were 2.5 million men in the Indian army but only 10 divisions participated in Slim’s Burma offensive, which Churchill thought was a pitiful level of participation.
There are of course numerous instances of individual and unit gallantry. The fact remains though that they weren’t much use in Malaya and plenty of them were keen to lose to the Japanese elsewhere.
The IJA did in fact occupy the Andaman Islands and this taste of Japanese rule seems to have cured the locals of any inclination towards it.
I’ve just been looking through some of the overnight posts about QT. A couple of things that people might not have picked up when watching the show:
The question about immigration boosting the BNP came from a BNP member. Carefully worded, so as to sound neutral - I wouldn’t be surprised if all of their gang had submitted the identical question to get it to the top of the popularity pile.
The comment about immigration continuing with rising unemployment came from a BNP member. The round of applause that followed his comment was not because of what he said, but because of the riposte by the lady who spoke after him (which was not picked up by the microphones) that immigrants have to take the jobs that members of the indigenous population cannot be @rsed to take.
When Griffin was giggling about not being convicted of being an H denier, Straw held up a copy of the newspaper in which he spouted his nonsense (can be seen in a wide shot of the panel) - this went down well with the audience.
For those who say the audience was full of lefties - no it wasn’t. The audience was made up of a cross section of party and non-party opinion. The BNP presence was at least in proportion to their support in national opinion polls.
Most of the BNP members in the audience made sure that they made themselves available for interview after the show, obviously trying to give a spin to the audience reaction prior to the show being broadcast.
I agree that this was Warsi’s most impressive performance on QT or Any Questions. She did a great job.
I wish I had thought of it last night - but after Griffin shared his views on seeing two men kissing it would have been good to ask him if had a different opinion when it comes to two women!
Further to my comment last night about Straw hugging a member of the audience after the show - I’ve realised it was the woman who picked him up on the use of “Afro-Carribbean”. He must have wanted to give her a personal apology, and she hugged him as a show of thanks.
175. Very pleased to hear it. It was a stunningly successful army and exceptionally well led by Slim.
There’s some excellent history on the Burma Campaign in several chapters of Max Hastings latest WWII book “Nemesis” - about the downfall of Japan.
I’d highly recommend it.
Have only just seen this article - Sam Coates scores for QT. He must have been watching a different edit of the programme that I saw. Wouldn’t like him to be a witness in a car crash based on this!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6886612.ece
its a real pity this receson news has coincided with the BNP debabcle becaseu it gives labour a chance to do what they like doing best -hysterical and OTT ranting about a minor party(who will always be a minor party) ratehr than expalin just how the hell we are still in deep recession when the rest of the world isn’t and how the hell ‘were we best placed for the downturn’ and how the hell does every person in the UK now owe nearly £100,000 as part of its share of national debt?
200. Indeed! One of favourite kids TV shows!
On the economy those GDP figures are terrible for Labour as they confirm it’s the longest recession since records began which nullifies the “It was worse under the Tories” attack line!
Do they have any weapons left? At least in 97 Major was able to claim that he had delivered a strong economy!
234 - You’re not much help to anyone.
216
The awful truth about the British contribution to the war against the Japanese is, (despite the bravery of those involved) it was pointless, or nearly so.
The War against Japan was won by the US Navy,(Midway being the battle that sealed Japan’s fate) what happened on land was of secondary importance.
The American General Stilwell was once asked, ‘What value do you put on the British contribution to the war in South East Asia’ his reply, ‘About the same value as I’d put on a bucket of cold sh*t’
Churchill asked FDR if the US navy would be prepared to allow the RN back into the Pacific, he put the proposition to Admiral King, ‘Mr President I don’t want no f**king Limeys getting under my feet’ FDR overuled him.
206. “WW2
the Indian army numbered 2.5 million - the largest all volunteer force in history.
We needed them at Alamein and the Japanese might have won Kohima and Imphal and invaded India without them.”
The Japanese did not have sufficient troops to invade India even if they had won at Kohima and Imphal.
If you read the history you will see they were very poorly supplied, had virtually no tanks or aircraft and were at the end of a very long logistical tail.
None of this detracts from the success of the British Indian Army in defeating them and pushing them back into Burma - but let’s get some perspective.
242 - Sorry if I cant assist in your Labour-bashing game. Can we agree on “longest recession ever so long as we dont count the longest recessions of the 20th century”?
[123] - Should see growth due to Christmas though.
Will we? I would have thought that the figures would be seasonally adjusted.
Marquee Mark October 23rd, 2009 at 9:22 am
You are right about the contribution of ‘Empire troops’ in WWII but Straw surely was wrong as it was not they which tipped the balance but the entry of the USA.
236. Spot on John R.
I wish that wasn’t the case - my family has strong emotional and historical ties to India - but most of the time my grandparents, like most of the British out there, were simply trying to maintain order in India during WWII.
245: Neil….we’re screwed. Labour have screwed the country.
The fact that othe countries are out of recession, whilst we’re in one= terminal for labour.
Nice to see you spend your efforts fighting over a crumb though. No doubt tim will be around soon on either IHT or the Lativan SS once he gets his orders from on high.
PS - on the growth issue
This is where our great mass of individual debt comes into play. Instead of spending people who can are paying off their debts. given poor savings rates this makes sense. Indeed if they do not take the opportunity to do this now then they never will.
the unemployed can neither save spend or pay off debt.
So its not surprising we are not coming out of recession - unlike other countries. Brown was warned about debt but ignored it.
As it is, a huge mass of govt debt hangs over the country and that too will make recovery sluggish. Brown has well and truly rogered the nation.
BBC ticker now saying “UK economy in longest recession since 1950s”
then the article beneath says “making the recession the longest since records began”
I think that latter description is damning enough without the semantics of ‘ever’.
“It is the first time UK gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955.”
Brown (I wear more make up than Barbara Cartland) and Captain “Thunderbirds are Go” Darling are absolutely f4cking useless. I hope that at the next PMQs he will get a thumping from Cameron and quite rightly so.
Dame Barbara Brown was the idiot that said many times in the HOC we were “better prepared than most of the other G7 economies”. Lookd look whats happened Germany and France both in recession before us and out before us !
I bet the vulchers will be hovering now for Dame Barbara’s scalp and I bet the mood in No.10 now is like a mad hatters tea party !
GOOD BYE GORDON AND GOOD F4CKING RIDDANCE TO YOU AND YOUR SOCIAL NUMPTY PARTY THAT HAVE NOT ONLY BANKRUPT THIS COUNTRY BUT HAVE NOW MADE US A LAUGHING STOCK WITHIN THE G7 !
247. Yes. Japan was toast as soon as they bombed Pearl Harbour.
Believe it or not, Germany was actually toast as soon as they invaded the USSR too - they never managed to mobilise a fully efficient war economy, nor even mechanise most of their armed forces, even right to the end - but US participation safeguarded the future of Democracy in Western Europe which would probably have fallen to Communism otherwise.
Britain (by itself) could have liberated North Africa with just its Imperial Forces, maybe Scilly too, bombed some German factories, stopped the Germany Navy - and that’s about it.
[152] - The links to other news sites are funny. Lots of “figures set to show Britain coming out of recession” type headlines. So not just the BBC taking the economist’s predictions too seriously.
I do wish that newspapers would report news when it has happened, rather than speculate about things that haven’t happened.
The BBC graphic on that news story is interesting though. You can see a marked reduction in British growth from around the time of the bursting of the dotcom bubble.
Further to my comment last night about Straw hugging a member of the audience after the show - I’ve realised it was the woman who picked him up on the use of “Afro-Carribbean”. He must have wanted to give her a personal apology, and she hugged him as a show of thanks.”
Nicely spotted,Sandy Rentool. If Jack Straw was an actor he would have been booed off the stage last night.As it was I have warmed to him in retrospect.
I have always thought him ‘useless’ and a bit ‘devious’. Now I begin to see him as someone with genuine warmth.
As a career politician Jack Straw must be doing something right because it is all too easy to see what he does wrong.
243 Not to hear we were so valued by the Yanks. My father-in-law got a piece of shrapnel in his chest in Burma and was lucky to live. And that’s the country we’re stupid enough to get into bed with over Iraq and Afghanistan.
This…more than anything else puts Gordons position in No10 more in doubt.
Before I would say he would stay, but now I’m not so sure.
G Brown famous words
“Britain best placed to come out of recession”.
“End to Boom and Bust”
255: Jack Straw’s a pretty honourable guy in my book. as is Darling who’s had to play a very sticky wicket as CoE.
257 - Let’s not forget his some more of his famous words
“0% Growth” and
“British Jobs for British Workers”
216 fr
But there was one tree that showed very good growth and the whole world then based their economic projections on it.
Sorry it’s a bit of an obscure reference to AGW
Max Hastings’ book Retribution is excellent on the Pacific War and the roles played by the UK and USA in defeating Japan (yes our contribution was close to nada - we were fighting to maintain some respect in our colonies not to the direct defeat of Japan itself). A very good and long chapter about Slim’s campaign in Burma. Strongly recommend to all who take an interest. (Also it wipes out any lingering doubt about the true vileness of the Jap regime and the morals of nuking the bastards into a surrender without having to invade the Japanese mainland).
Isn’t part of the problem that people realise the fiscal boost is unsustainable. They become scared and take steps to protect themselves, which in turn undermines the fiscal boost. Companies reduce investment, are reluctant to build inventories and pay back debt. Individuals hold back on major purchases, reduce their loans or build up savings.
Perhaps the Tories are correct and it is more important to show that government spending is being brought under control rather than piling up more borrowing. Perhaps only then companies and individuals will have the confidence to move forward.
236: John R @ 10:19
“There were 2.5 million men in the Indian army but only 10 divisions participated in Slim’s Burma offensive, which Churchill thought was a pitiful level of participation.”
Given that there were only 13 divisions in the XIVth Army I question your use of the word “only”.
However, that is also to mistake the make up of the Indian Army. Each army division is made up from a number of brigades plus central commanded support troops (supply heavy, artillery etc.). In the Indian Army each infantry brigade normally consisted of two Indian manned battalions plus one British manned battalion. So to suggest that an Indian Army Division consisted entirely of Indian troops is a nonsense.
However, there can be no disguising of the fact that the majority of the XIVth army soldiers were Indian volunteers. So without them
Burma would not have been recaptured and, indeed, India itself would have fallen to the Japanese.
Germany, France and Japan have all come out of recession technically and the UK hasn’t. The decline has continued.
And the markets didn’t really like the look of that. The foreign exchange markets have been selling the pound.
The words of the BBC.
How on earth does Brown and Labour spin these figures?
263: By Jove I think he’s got it.
Individuals are always firstly going to act in their own best interests. At the moment, that probably means paying down debt, especially as interest rates are low, and the future is uncertain.
QE is seemingly at the moment, doing nothing more than morphine does. It might be needed, but it’s not fixing the economy.
264, “Fear of a possible Tory Government is depressing spending, exacerbated by Cameron talking the economy down”?
Clearly differing figures will be used for settling bets, but BNP Question Time did get fairly bumper ratings..
http://www.atvnewsnetwork.co.uk/today/index.php/atv-today/1643-8-million-watch-bnp-on-question-time
Another million and they might have overtaken Strictly..
So when is Nick Griffin going to Come Dancing ?
267: Lol…I wouldn’t put it past them.
LOL! I can’t believe that the government haven’t managed to get at least a little bit of growth in Q3! I mean, -0.4% isn’t even close to growth is it? Its not even close to stagnation. Its still firmly in recession territory. Incredible, but so disasterous for the UK.
Brown tried to have a pain free recession, using the painkiller of debt. Unfortunately, we now have an addiction to that painkiller.
Another song for the Brown jukebox:
“They tried to make me go to rehab, I said “No, no, no!”
262
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rape_of_Nanking_(book)
Read that, most stomach churning book I’ve ever read.
264
Japan was grossly over-extended, never had the physical resources to occupy India. Don’t forget, (we often do) tJapan was bogged down in China, how it would have coped with India, I can’t imagine.
Even if the Indians would have welcomed them as liberators, which I doubt.
this will also put pressure on Brown/Darling to put off the rise in VAT back to 17.5%
270 Surely, (Very) Strictly Come Goosestepping?
270. 8.3 million? That’s astonishing
268
You channeling Pete Mandelson?
(if you’ll pardon the expression)
269 - MD, careful. You know some Labour minion is trawling the blogs looking for ideas.
264, 274 But it might have led to a non-alligned neutral India, taken out of the British Empire. Which would have been a major result in its own right.
[262 ish] - Fernando, perhaps, but to extend Slackbladder’s pseudo-medical analogy a bit further, you could argue that keeping government spending high now is akin to life support for the economy.
You can rightly argue that the patient is not going to be able to play a game of footie while he is hooked up to the life support machine, but the solution is not to disconnect the machine while he still needs it.
The Tory policy appears to be a bit Maoist in its mindset:
“Healthy economies do not have high government borrowing; therefore if we reduce government borrowing the economy will become healthier”
279 - I was thinking the very same thing….!
281 Osborne = Chairman Mao
Thought for the day!
245 - Stilwell and King were both ferociously anglophobic from the start - neither was likely to have a good word to say about the Brits regardless of our contribution.
272
Bad news now, but I wonder what the New Year will bring?
It could be very bloody.
Could sheer inertia drag the economy into a double-dip recession?
[272] - Yes, -0.4 is so bad that there isn’t a realistic chance of a later revision bumping the number into positive territory. Not a happy backdrop for the PBR in November.
281: I confess, I am not a doctor.
It’s a case of dammed if we do, dammed if we don’t. If we don’t cut spending, we’ll go bust or spend so much on interest repayments we’re screwed.
If we do cut spending, we risk damaging the recovery. But then we get to a better situation quicker…
286 Tim with the zebras
Ye but we need to vote Laour because they’re RIGHT
Oh and Tories eat children
284 - I ought to add I agree with the thrust of your comment, Coldstone, but the witnesses for the prosecution could hardly be described as impartial!
202 Molly Weir is probably best known to English viewers as ‘Hazel the McWitch’ in the late 70s/early 80s BBC children’s show ‘Rentaghost’.
She’s still alive ?!?!! She must be as old as Jack W.
The group-think expressed on the BBC this morning and newspapers about the expected recovery was interesting. They are all wrong.
Does this illustrate what was hopeful behind the scenes briefing by the usual suspects or the “wisdom” of economists - who appear to be useless at forecasting but have 20:20 hindsight.
279 ‘You know some Labour minion is trawling the blogs looking for ideas.’
tim’s already here.
287 Slackbladder - What gets forgotten is that it makes a big difference what you spend the money on. So much of Labour’s so-called ‘investment’ is just throwing money down the drain. Borrowing to cover waste and profligacy is clearly economic madness, whereas borrowing to fund sensible, properly-run capital projects with a long-term benefit is not (within reason).
Perhaps it’s too early, but having had a quick perusal at the BNP website there’s nothing yet regarding Griffin’s appearance last night. Is this a reflection that the BNP don’t think it went well either?
245
Yep!
As Admiral King’s daughter said,’ My father was the most even tempered man I ever new, he was always angry’
Despite that, there is a harsh truth there. King, Halsey and Nimitz won the Pacific war. Ironically it was an Army General that took the surrender, they must have loved that.
Wasn’t Molly Weir in Dr.Finlay’s Casebook’ ?
I haven’t googled and anticipate loads of gratuitous abuse if I am wrong.
I was right about Mrs.Dale being on the Light Programme !
Last night’s by-election results
Con held all their seats, and gained one from an Independent.
Lib Dems held the only seat they were defending.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2009/10/local-byelection-results-for-thursday-22nd-october.html
We should have had the election yesterday….Labour could have at least kept alive the myth that we were coming out of out of recession this week.
Oooops.
Now Labour will be tagged with overseeing the Longest Recession Evvuh!* Put away the bunting, hide the “Recession Over - Mission Accomplished” banner, bin the cheese and pineapple hedgehogs, stash the booze - the party is on hold for another quarter at least. And we have the cold turkey of the PBR in November. Reality is going to take a serious bite out of Darling’s arse that day.
*Just to annoy Neil (Kinnock?)
287. My feeling at the time was always that I couldn’t understand how a recession caused by too much debt and spending could be solved by debt and spending. To me, at some point, we’ve got to pay to piper for the decade of exuberance and by carrying on with excessive spending, borrowing and debt, we’re simply putting off the inevitable pain that at some point everyone is gonna have to go through.
I’m not an economist so I might be talking rubbish, but thats my take.
286 A later revision could make the figure worse too. I can’t see the postal strike helping matters for this quarter either and wouldn’t be at all surprised if the economy continued to shrink. PSBR figures will become even more nonsensical than they already are. No doubt we’ll have the numpty Liam Byrne on tv talking hogwash about them again. When the conservatives finally do get into power and really do properly plan for the future I imagine the implications of this governments profligacy will be truly awful. (I don’t think even the Tories have really worked out a viable economic plan to deal with the debt at present).
293: Indeed. anyone which runs a buiness knows that when you start borrowing (beyond the normal overdraft) to fund everyday spending rather than expansions or capital items, your running into problems.
294: Probably the bloke who lives in a bed-sit in charge of the BNP’s website hasn’t woken up yet.
291 - Economists were put on the Earth to make astrologers look good.
[293] - Borrowing to cover waste and profligacy is clearly economic madness, whereas borrowing to fund sensible, properly-run capital projects with a long-term benefit is not
I can agree with that.
Around 50% of the Japanese army of WW2 was deployed to China, where it waged successful offensives right up until 1945.
The rest was divided between the Burma front and the Pacific islands.
China’s contribution was to tie down twice as many Japanese troops as any western power took on individually.
Not much of any land campaign undertaken by the Commonwealth or the USA against Japan was militarily necessary. The various Pacific islands, once cut off by air and sea power, could in the main have simply been bypassed and left to starve. A few were needed to base bombers on, but even the bombing was otiose by 1945, because Japanese industry had ground nearly to a halt thanks to the submarine blockade.
Counterfactuals are a bit pointless, but in any counterfactual war between the British and Japanese empires of 1940ish in which neither had to face any other opponent, the Japanese would eventually have been utterly crushed, and indeed it all might have ended in much the same way. It’s not often appreciated that Commonwealth economic might, manpower, industrial output, technology, cryptanalysis and so on all totally dwarfed Japan’s. The latter attacked as they did not because they were strong, but because they were weak
264. I think you mean “Nemesis”.
266. “India itself would have fallen to the Japanese.”
Japan did not have anything like the resources to capture India. It could barely hold Burma.
This is a myth.
280. Marquee Mark - that is exactly what happened less than 10 years later when India became independent. It didn’t affect our *direct* interests that much.
Without India our strategic priorities would have changed. Don’t forget the scores of divisions of British troops who would have become available to serve in European Armies.
Don’t get me wrong - I am proud of the role Imperial Forces played but they weren’t decisive to the outcome of the war.
284. Of course there were also many Americans who were ardent Anglophiles. Not least FDR himself.
303. I wonder how Mr Anatole Kaletsky will explain these growth figures away?
296
Don’t think so,
Barbara Mullen was the actress iIrc.
Thinner face as I picture her…
But my memory is shot to **** anyway
Apparently Darling is insisting that confidence is returning to the economy….
I wonder how much medication it takes to induce such delusions?
296. I’m wondering if it’s the same Molly Weir who played the Aggie character in ‘Life with the Lyons’ on the old steam radio.
309 Darling and Brown have probably pooled their meds in a big glass bowl on the table of Number 11 - and as we speak, are dipping into them like a giant sweetie jar…
309 - “Apparently Darling is insisting that confidence is returning to the economy….”
Because the markets anticipate a change of Government sooner rather than later?
Upthread there was comment about the broadcasters, especially the BBC, reporting what they thought would happen as “news” rather than what has actually happened. Surely that is a throwback to the days of pre-announcements and early knowledge by the Government of official figures. So, whoever decided to make the ONS output independent of Government has done us all a big favour.
309: Clearly things are picking up on Farmy-Farm. Darling has a new hat, and the chickens have just laid eggs.
(PS I miss farmy-farm jokes)
It was clear last night that Nick Griffin was not ready for any questions and was probably expecting that he would either be prevented from attending, or that the programme would not be aired - in which case he could present himself as a martyr.
The fact that he made himself look like the moron that he is vindicated the BBC decision to let him on. Give him as much air time as he wants in my opinion.
305
“The latter attacked as they did not because they were strong, but because they were weak”
Absolutely.
The Japanese embarked on a war they could not win.
(and knowing this - because it must have been obvious to German High Command - Hitler then declared war on the US: crazy)
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23760175-recession-still-on-gdp-down-04.do#
The start of the bad headlines !
KitKat Gordon ?
While Britain’s contribution to the war in the Pacific was minor, the creation of the British Pacific Fleet in 1944 from nothing to a substantial task force the America’s felt able to entrust important tasks to was amazing and earned
Added to that the fact the armoured flight desks of our carriers made them much more resistant to kamakazie attacks. The US Navy said “With us a carrier gets hit with a Kamakazie and its 6 months in Pearl. With the Brits its “Sweepers, man your brooms”‘.
309
Nah
Psilocybin in their ‘full Scottish’ each morning
305. “Not much of any land campaign undertaken by the Commonwealth or the USA against Japan was militarily necessary. The various Pacific islands, once cut off by air and sea power, could in the main have simply been bypassed and left to starve. A few were needed to base bombers on, but even the bombing was otiose by 1945, because Japanese industry had ground nearly to a halt thanks to the submarine blockade.”
Always found this fascinating. The Americans had to actually do very little to defeat Japan.
Once they’d sunk their carriers, blocked the home islands and bomed their tinderbox factories Japan could do virtually nothing. It had to import all raw materials and was highly vulnerable to bombing.
I’m not even convinced Iwo Jima and Okinawa were strictly necessary.
If Britain hadn’t been fighting Germany, it’s not inconceivable that they could have forced a similar result with the Royal Navy.
Regarding Question Time yesterday, I share some peoples concern about the way that it came across as ganging up on Griffin.
Many BNP voters aren’t driven to them by racism, but by frustration as they feel they are being ignored by the main parties.
I wonder how many of them, if watching, will have just seen the leader of the party who they have voted for (or feel some sympathy towards) being the victim of what sometimes came across as an orchestrated attempt by the panelists, Dimbleby and the audience to attack him at every opportunity.
If that is what they saw then what was said may be irrelevant.
Having said that, perhaps the most important input of the whole show was from Sayeeda Warsi when she made criticisms of the current immigration system. I thought it was a very powerful argument, and one which addresses some of the issues these people have without bowing to the rheteric of the BNP.
Overall I thought that Warsi was by far the best panelist (although I suppose it is no surprise that I think that), although towards the end she got a bit carried away. Some of the others, plus Dimbleby and the audience got carried away right from the start.
Of course, the absolute worst performance was from the people trying to stop the show or campaigning outside the BBC centre. Do they really not realise how this plays into the BNP’s hands.
[309] - To be fair, he doesn’t have many choices. He can hardly talk in the manner of the Not the Nine O’Clock News sketch:
“Oh dear. Dear oh dear oh dear..”
The other alternative would be to tender his resignation, leaving the economy to the tender ministrations of Ed Balls - not what I would describe as the honourable or responsible option.
I find it hard to believe that they would schedule an election for early May, when there now has to be an increased chance of awful GDP data being released 2 weeks previously. I would imagine this makes it more likely that the election will be delayed until June, or brought forward to early April or March.
309. Be wary of such claims. Does Darling mean people think things are going great? No, he means people think things can hardly get any worse.
241 - Totally agree. I just could n’t believe his scoring! Straw was very weak on the crucial question of why the BNP had achieved electorally (Dimbleby had to bring him back to the question twice) and Warsi at least addressed it.
All those economists prediciting growth in Q3, as bad predicitions go, were they worse than this mans prediction?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
322. Trouble is the local elections are set for May 6th 2010 and Labour can’t afford to have a general election in March/April and local elections in May. Bearing in mind if the result is close there may have to be another general election late 2010 or 2011.
Of course the local elections can be moved, but that would give the date away for the general election and I can’t see Gord wanting to do that, show how.
I would have thought a March election is looking more likely now
Labour votes are hardly likely to increase post-budget (given what it should contain to deal with the mess)
281 Timothy with Zebras. I always enjoy your contributions. I’m not a doctor or an economist. I think medical analogies have a limited application in this case, anyhow.
All I was trying to point out was the way people react to events, which is crucial to getting out of the recession. I don’t think the current government’s action is sending signals that would encourage anyone to invest. Their current policy is just not sustainable. Most people think that taxes are going to have to rise, interest rates won’t stay this low for ever, government spending will need to be slashed, inflation could well take off in a few years time and the banks still haven’t been tamed. Why would anyone take a risk in such circumstances.
The Tories are at least trying to address some of these issues sooner rather than later. This is more likely to increase confidence than a fiscal boost, IMO.
327. What Labour should do in 2010 budget and what they will do is not the same thing.
No the election will be May 6th because Labour are almost bankrupt.
They only have enough funds to fight the GE and locals on the same day.
People thinking anything else will be proven wrong.
Quite a lot of feedback complaining of Griffin-bashing format on R5. I watched it again this morning and it wasn’t as bad as it seemed last night.
Warsi side-stepping the gay question was interesting - wonder if that will be noticed.
On reflection, a few thoughts:
- the bashing [inc Dimbleby at times] was OTT and clearly had an agenda that made me feel a bit sorry for Griffin. It must have been pretty terrifying to get passed the protestors/face hostile panel and what looked like a most untypical very hostile QT audience.
- When Griffin had a chance to talk about something other than race, he said a few things that my builder has a lot of sympathy with
>don’t mind what gay peeps do in private, but I don’t want to see it as it makes me feel uncomfortable
>don’t want sex of any sort taught to my kids at primary school
>the whites aren’t allowed to have an identity
>immigration is putting me/my family at a disadvantage
If Griffin had more time to talk about other issues such as the economy/posties etc - I think he’d have scored much more highly. When the panel *actually* talked politics about immigration - it came alive. Straw’s wriggling played right into Griffin’s hand - thankfully Warsi put up a good argument.
Re the audience - from the shots I saw it was much younger than usual - I had to search out anyone over 55…
If this had been held in Oldham or Dagenham, I imagine the audience attitude wouldn’t be the same
325. That never gets old!!
I lol every time
OED should edit the entry for “Twat” and inserted Sion Simons name as the definition underneath it.
279, good, I hope they use it. It’s ludicrous, but the sort of nonsense Labour loves.
Good morning Question Time viewers for Nick Palmer MP worldwide!
Remember:
Every Prime Minister needs a “Peter”
I’ll get me coat…
Good morning Question Time viewers for Nick Palmer MP worldwide!
Remember:
:)
Every Prime Minister needs a “Peter”
I’ll get me coat…
320
‘Fraid not.
The Navy had enormous problems that persisted through most of the war.
It simply wouldn’t have been possible.
Brown’s commitment to ending boom and bust has been 50% successful. Give the guy a break.
318
This might interest you.
http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-030.htm
Not as clear cut as you might think.
338. LOL!
321. Keith, I diagree with your comment that the audience got caried away. We were much more restrained than I thought might be the case. When Griffin entered the room, he was met with applasue from the BNP-ers and mainly silence from the rest. No-one shouted out, there was no pantomime. What came from the audience during the show was a genuine revulsion of Griffin and what he stands for - comments were made with real emotion - think of the young Jewish man and his incomprehension at Griffin’s H denial. I came away with a warm glow regarding the values of the British people - while we disagree on many matters political, when it comes to the BNP most of us stand united, and if that strength of opinion can spread through society, they can be swept back into the political gutter, where they belong.
Very interesting blog from Gavin Hewitt
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/gavinhewitt/2009/10/the_bnp_and_the_white_working.html
“At Dagenham Working Men’s Club I found potential BNP voters, and some were willing to talk openly. Among then was a brick-layer, a trainee nurse and an electrician. I got them to look straight into the camera. They gave their names, their occupations and said they intended to vote for BNP. All were either former Labour voters or came from Labour-voting families. None of them knew much about the BNP beyond the fact that it was anti-immigration. They knew nothing about the history or the background of the party’s leaders or activists.
The mood in the club was one of sullen resentment. The neighbourhood around them was changing rapidly. Their known world had gone. I remember that one of them had got hold of the Labour manifesto from 1997. There was only a brief reference to immigration but the man read out the words “every country must have firm control over immigration and Britain is no exception”. They felt betrayed and voiceless. In their view Labour had not been straight and no-one had asked them whether they wanted a sharp rise in immigration….”
335. Difficult - but not inconceivable. Without fighting Germany a huge battle fleet could have been sent and supplied from Singapore.
Of course, we would have had to RETAIN Singapore in order to do that…
Bear in mind Japan was v. short of oil and rubber before it even started.
bono publico at 308 or thereabouts.
Molly Weir was in ITMA(Tattie Mackintosh) and not in anyway associated with the good doctor.
You were right and I was wrong. I should apologise.
whilst we are on WW2 what are your best three films about it?
1) Where eagles dare wins the ‘best old fashioned nazi wasting’ category
2) Downfall -wins best German centred point of view of the war
3) Catch 22 — for its weirdness and humour -Major Major LOL
340. I imagine it’s now almost impossible for anyone who’s not either on benefits or self-employed to join the BNP.
If you did - and got found out as a member - most employers would either sack you or ruin your career.
And I’m not sure I agree with that.
322 Maybe they hang on until the last possible date in June so their ministers and MPs can extract the last possible bit of juice out of the public exchequer.
[328] - You are right that people’s reactions are important, and I don’t wholly dispute what you say, but I don’t think the issue of timing can be summed up as simply “better to get it over with”.
If you cut public spending too soon the danger is that the recession deepens, and people will simply hunker down even more. The nightmare scenario would then see this further reduce tax income, and a reduction in spending wouldn’t succeed in cutting the deficit. Although there was a structural deficit going into this recession, most of the deficit is due to a reduction in tax receipts.
I admit to basing much of my thinking on respect for the writing of Larry Elliot in the Guardian. His record over the past decade or so has been pretty good, I think.
343, I loved Downfall, so glad I saw it before those fantastic spoofs appeared.
We should get a new one for the GDP figures.
Not that into WWII films, but one I really like is the Guns of Navarone.
But how on earth could Labour be proposing to ditch such an economic genius who has abolished boom and bust and led us to the worst recession in over 50 years? It’s a ludicrous suggestion surely.
316. The US and Germany were already at war in the Atlantic during 1941, albeit undeclared.
Google “Reuben James”.
Did David Blanchflowe comment on the likelihood of us coming out of recession in the last quarter?
“Always found this fascinating. The Americans had to actually do very little to defeat Japan.”
Tell that to the Marines who fought on Okinawa, or Iwo Jima.
“If Britain hadn’t been fighting Germany, it’s not inconceivable that they could have forced a similar result with the Royal Navy.” — what an absolute hoot.
You know absolutely nothing about the pacific war and the resources needed to fight it. In terms of submarines alone the RN was totally unsuited to fight in the pacific. We did not have the ships the aircraft carriers the planes or the men to defeat Japan.
Various islands were bypassed but the rest were needed to supply bases across the Pacific.
Indian army
Much of the British Army fell apart in Malaya and Singapore in 1941-2.
10 divisions are a lot of divisions. 10 more than the British could have mustered.
I do not wholly agree with Straw but we cannot write off the Indians did; in the context of talks about race I think its a fair point to make.
I am told the Spitfire in the photo the BNP use is one flown by a Pole in a Polish Squadron. The Poles helped in the breaking of Enigma - saved us a whole year.
343.
1. Das Boot
2. A Bridge Too Far
3. Went The Day Well?
343.
(1) Battle of Britain - amazing aerial cinematography (in the 60s!)
(2) A Bridge Too Far - just superb
(3) Downfall - astonishingly well acted/directed
Enemy at the Gates is not far behind for me.
331 - The BNP was always going to dominat the quesitoning becausr the BNP is the story of the moment. The fact is that the BNP get just 6% of the vote for a reason - the vast majority of the people of this country in this country find their views repellent and in London, which is farmore racially mixed than other parts of the country, that is going to be even more the case. Having the debate in Oldham or Dagenham may have made Griffin’s life easier, but neither of those places are typical of the UK either. Somewhere like Coventry, Bristol or Wakefield may have been more apprpriate, but then there are the security issues etc etc.
The plain truth about the BNP is that they are a one issue party whose entire raison d’etre is based around racial supremacy. Griffin is by far the most politically astute of its leadership, but even he cannot hide that fact. I would love to see the second BNP MEP on QT or anywhere else for that matter as he probably reflects mainstream BNP attitudes far more accurately than old Nick.
As for the performances, Warsi was clearly the star. Straw was OK but floundered on Labour and immigration, while Huhne was solid. Greer, I thought, started to raise interesting points but they needed a lot more explanation than the QT format allowed.
All in all, none of this will change many minds - but it will not provide the BNP with any momentum. They will start to lose votes big time if other BNP leaders start getting on the TV. Griffin can at least hold his own to an extent.
351 - when my youngest son was 8 he chose Das Boot as his favourite film.
343 - Ice cold in Alex, Cross of Iron, Dambusters.
Flicking back through QT on iplayer, I think the reason I don’t rate Warsi’s performance is that it was so flat, no spark from it, and if you’re going to go the quiet approach you need to make it memorable with a knockout blow and she didn’t, plus the silly point about terminology.
Just not the sort of performance to resonate with the general public, especially the non-political anoraks who tuned in due to the publicity.
351 - A Bridge Too Far has too much of a reputation for being a financial bomb, without sufficient recognition of just how good it is. Really nice pick.
355 watched Ice cold in Alex whilst recovering from a broken arm earlier in the year. Why do war films seem a lot better watching them in the day than at night?
349 - he latst figures prove what a pointless science economics is. They also show what happens when you build an economy on finance, retail and services. It’s a long road back, that’s for sure.
344 Casino - I agree with you.
I think it’s appalling that you can be sacked for being a member of a legal political party - it’s intimidation of the most insidious kind ‘vote for them and lose your livelihood’.
What I find most alarming is that it doesn’t *stop* anyone thinking that they don’t like immigrants/gays or whatever - it just forces it underground and stymies making a case for tolerance/change in policy.
The UAF are a disgrace - they were chanting ‘build a bonfire and put Griffin on it!!!’ Replace that with jew or black…
350. P*ss off Trevor. I’ve read loads about it.
Did you fail to read my post where I said if we *hadn’t* been fighting Germany?
Our war economy would have been entirely regeared to fighting Japan.
And I don’t appreciate your snide comment about me being disrespectful to allied soldiers that died. I am making a point about the strategic weakness of Japan and their weak points. The Americans *did* have to do comparatively little - especially compared to what was necessary to crush Germany. The US didn’t even have to deploy a field army. The campaign in the Philippines was noble but contributed virtually nothing.
None of this means I don’t care about casualties or that I haven’t read up about the conflict.
Dick.
339 - I agree completely. If you put a holocaust denier and a white supremacist in front of a British audiencethis what happened last night is generally what will always happen. That is a good thing.
It is also good to see mainstream politicians talk with passion and lucidity about subects they clearly feel very strongly about. If only we could get this all the time.
Anyone watching Griffin on Sky ?
360. Absolutely. Many of the UAF are same psychological types of people who become BNP members Plato. They enjoy hating.
They’ve just taken a slightly different path.
242
Apologise?
What for?
My memory plays tricks all the time and you asked a question rather than making a definitive assertion to back up an argument.
I’ve found as I go through life, that facts and I are slowly becoming estranged.
Most annoying are the things I thought were correct, turn out not to be the case.
The example pointed out by Coldstone at 337 is one of them.
360 - Not to defend UAF, but talking about an individual in such a way is very different to talking about a race in that way. It’s all odious, of course, but not actually comparable.
“Although there was a structural deficit going into this recession, most of the deficit is due to a reduction in tax receipts.”
The structural deficit is about 10% of GDP - up from about 2% in 1997 (according to the BoE.) 60 billion?
We need to address that structural deficit. the issue now is not ’supporting’ the economy - which is code for supporting the govt until the election. we need to cut unnecessary spending and start supporting the productive parts of the economy instead of supporting the economies of China and Taiwan and S.Korea with VAT cuts.
I repeat my earlier assertion - our problem is made worse by the mass of individual debt hanging over the economy - people are wisely paying it off if they can.
I am reminded of a line from ‘Full Metal Jacket’ — “we are in a sea of shit”.
357. A Bridge Too Far is terrific. And incredibly moving.
It is also fairly accurate for a Hollywood flick and its length does justice to the whole of the Market Garden operation.
I can’t believe I haven’t also mentioned…
Saving Private Ryan (never liked the title)
Band of Brothers (Damien Lewis = hero)
The Great Escape (moving)
Anyone also remember “Escape to Victory” with Pele and Michael Caine?!!
Molly Weir wrote two interesting autobiographies about her early life in Glasgow, which maybe give some indication of why she became a Tory. Well worth reading:
“Shoes Were for Sunday”
“Best Foot Forward”
365, http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/22/what-do-we-know-about-bnp-voters/#comment-1276527
I agree it’s different. But wanting to burn people to death for holding a political view is not exactly something that is against fascism.
343
“The Cruel Sea”
344 - I wouldn’t knowingly employ a white supremacist, would you?
I wouldn’t knowingly employ tim, would you?
371, do you think all BNP voters are white supremacists?
365. To be fair, I don’t think Griffin has called for immigrants to be put on funeral pyres and burnt to death.
Besides, many of these people are class-warriors who believe in shooting and hanging the wealthy and bankers.
It’s similar emotions and they’re similarly destructive.
Of course, most of us agree with the UAF that the BNP are odious but some people within that organisation have some serious mental issues.
Casino — even if we had not been fighting Germany we would not have been able to fight Japan. We were incapable of fighting Germany on our own. We had nothing like the navy (nor the airforce) nor the industrial capacity to defeat Japan on our own.
It is a pointless argument since the reality is the Japanese expansion would never have been tolerated by America.
371 - No.
But I think members of the party are.
And if they don’t know that the Party is a white supremacist party then they’re too thick to employ.
371. That’s a loaded question tim.
I think employers should assess employees on their performance and behaviour - not their political beliefs.
If the employee was a successful and performing the day before he was found out as a member, why should be sacked the day after?
True. You can make a point about his coworkers finding him offensive to work with subsequently. But you could make the same point about ex-Paedos, violent criminals and revolutionary-communists.
If they started preaching or discriminating, then they should be sacked, but they might have joined the BNP purely out of frustration with Labour, mightn’t they?
376: How would you know what political party they voted for, or even if they were a member of the BNP (leaked lists aside)?
In an interview you can’t ask if people are married, or if they’re planning a family…
Paddy Tipping (MP for Sherwood since 1992) to stand down at next election. He was involved in the expenses saga last summer (he paid back 14,000) and also had an heart attack last year.
He’s 60 years old.
310 Yes she was the same one I think and died in 2004 aged 94 so only a mere youth compared to Jack W.
Has anyone else noticed how much the Director chap from Royal Mail who keeps appearing on the news bulletins looks like a slightly older Mrs Dale? Has Iain Dale found a seat yet?
371. Tim, it’s always amusing that you ceaselessly base your arguments on smearing entire groups of people subject to your own prejudices….hmm I wonder who that seems familiar to?
Correct me if I’m wrong……again . Wasn’t the song the protesters sang about Griffin an adaptation of one that militants used to sing about Thatcher ?
Just when cameron’s day couldnt get any better, up pops griffin who single handedly annoints cameron as the anti-bnp, anti-racist touch bearer! When your lucks in, its in! And with this new found position, he’ll be able to be as tough as he wants with regards to immigration. So he’ll be appeasing the ethnic minority and the majority in the same breath! its win-win once again.
376. So you would probe an applicant’s political views either before short-listing or at interview?
You’d have to, otherwise you’d never know if they supported the BNP or not. And I’ve an idea it might be illegal to refuse employment using such grounds.
You come across as remarkably… well… fascist in your trampling over basic freedoms.
Mike is right, its either going to be one of the Milibands or Balls (up.
(up)*
touch = torch
Griffin on Radio5, whinging like a stuck pig.
Ha Ha Ha.
His fellow thugs have been laughing at him.
And claiming Cameron was behind the UAF demo.
374 - At a guess I would say the vast majority of BNP members are white supremacists.
Oh oh - Griffin on the warpath.
- Official complaint to OFCOM and FOI requests about QT format
- do a 1-1 with Straw on 5 policies
- demand Cameron breaks from UAF
Just seen the GDP figures - shocking
Just seen the GDP figures - shocking
388: so tim, you would break employment law by asking banned questions at an interview?
364 bono publico.You are a real niceguy.
My post was in the form of a joke; a Jewish joke at the expense of Lenin.
It all depends on how you read my statement and the emphasis you put on the words and the grammar.
YOU were right ? I was wrong ? I should apologise ???
I think Tim has at last realised, trying to entice the 1 million BNP voters back into the fold ain’t gonna happen.
Hence they are all now “too thick to employ” yada yada…!
375. Yes. It’s pointless because of your extreme rudeness and ignorance.
“We were incapable of fighting Germany on our own. ”
We fought Germany successfully from 1939-1941 and prevented them from gaining control of the North Sea/Atlantic and ensure they had to continue to heavily garrison France - which weakened their offensives into Russia.
In 1943 we would have eventually pushed them out of North Africa as well.
“We had nothing like the navy (nor the airforce) nor the industrial capacity to defeat Japan on our own.”
Rubbish.
We did fight Japan Trevor and we successfully recaptured Burma in 1945 and would have go on to reconquer Malaya in 1946. And this was *whilst* we were fighting Germany.
If Germany hadn’t happened Malaya and Singapore could have been garrisoned with spitfires at fighter bases and - as at Malta - these squadrons would have been decisive.
A strong battle fleet - redeployed from the Atlantic and the Med - would have prevented Japan from conquering the Dutch East Indies and Malaya and with the continuing US oil embargo gravely weakened their forces fighting in China; although they would have taken Hong Kong anyway.
Finally, I said it was not *inconceivable* that we couldn’t have defeated Japan without the US. If Churchill had fully mobilised the UK and Australia, Canada and Indian forces he could have applied sufficient pressure to blockage Japan with lend-lease. Bear in mind the Royal Navy eventually did manage to sink or disable every major German warship - and u-boat - in Europe/Med/Atlantic. Those forces - redeployed - were not insignificant.
Yes. It is an argument about resources and the comparative strength of the British Empire. But Britain would not be doomed to stalemate or defeat by any stretch of the imagination.
So, if anyones ignorant, you are sunshine.
Another win for Guido, sorry if already posted.
“Embarrassed Home Office blocks day off for staff sports day”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6886294.ece
375
Agree
The whole Japanese, ‘plan’ was absurd, they believed that once they had established themselves as the new power in the Pacific, (replacing the colonial powers). The US would accept it, and agree to dividing the Pacific in two, rather than continue to fight: yeah!
Amazingly, the obvious priority target after Pearl Harbour, was the Panama Canal, (well within their capabilities) but rather than that, they sent a fleet into the Indian Ocean, and almost to Alaska, clever.
381 - Smearing groups of people?
If you join a white supremacist party I presume you’re a white supremacist.
Or are we arguing that were we to live in the US we’d all be employing KKK members.
“Welcome y’all to tims Mexican diner where the staff check in their hoods”
No thanks.
394
I’m a bit slow today.
Good post from Alistair Campbell about what the mainstream parties need to do about the BNP and what’s probably going on the Whitey Towers.
http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog.php?id=236
399: Still wanting to know if you’d break the law asking them at an interview….
They don’t all come with KKK tattooed on their forehead you know.
399-So you would knwoingly excuse yourself from the labour code which bans discrimination on the grounds of race, sex, political views, etc?
I know Labour have run roughshod over this in local councils though.
Diane Abbott says Griffin has been given ‘victim’ status
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6886918.ece
399 Actually Griffin made a joke about hoods which I laughed at.
At times I wondered if he really believes some of the stuff he says as he clapped when Bonnie made a joke at his expense.
Very odd. The Daily Mail article quoting his wife ‘its all just a game to him’ may be truer than I suspected.
401. They need to control and reduce immigration. Get WWC off benefits and into decent jobs. Reintegrate fractured communities together and get a grip on crime and anti-social behaviour.
End of.
*** Betting Post ***Further to antifrank’s post at 87, there are still good arbitrage opportunities in the Next Labour Leader market:
Sell David Miliband on SPIN at 5 (effectively a lay at decimal 5.0), bet on him on VCBet (7.5, but stake limited), or Coral (7.0).
Sell Ed Miliband on SPIN at 3.5 (effectively a lay at decimal 7.1), bet on him on Coral (10.0).
You can thus get free bets on both of these, although usual caveats apply regarding possible different interpretations.
404. Abbott talks tosh - she is wrong on everything from backing Gordon Brown as the chosen one to allowing Griffin on QT.
399. Exactly you’ve “presumed”, you don’t actually “know”. There are many and varied reasons people vote or join political parties, but it’s not just the BNP is it tim? Week after week on here you’ve banged on about the Tory’s alliances in the EU, with which you’ve tediously smeared whole groups of people based on “presuming”.
* Betting Post - sort of….*
Yes, Mike, I think there is certainly something going on.
Yesterday morning I received an unexpected message to the effect that GB was likely to be replaced before the General Election and that Mandelson’s support would swing behind Ed Miliband. As I was going out for the day I didn’t have much time to evaluate or investigate this but I knew the source to be sound, and the story had a plausible ring. I decided to take a chance and mopped up as much as I could of the available odds from 7s to 10s. I also mopped up what I could on various Betfair markets, although it was clear somebody else was doing the same, so I had limited success. SPIN was another port of call.
When I returned last nite I found The Mole’s story, which put in the public domain what I had heard early yesterday, pretty much in the same way as I had heard it, although perhaps hedged around with a few more uncertainties.
So, I am responsible for a fair bit of the movements on the markets which Richard Nabavi, URW, and one or two other sharp needles in the PB haystack noted (although their comments went largely unnoticed amidst PB hysteria.)
So, what are my chances of collecting?
The Mole is a strong source. He may not be right, but he is well connected and undoubtedly is relying on solid information. He may not be right, but I am sure he is genuine and has good grounds for what he reports.
On the Defenestration issue, I am now in the Henry G camp. I think it is more likely than not.
Will it be a Miliband that replaces him? Not sure, but either is plausible and I agree with The Mole - more likely Ed than David. That’s where my money is now, in quite large amounts.
Hope that helps anybody playing the related markets.
408. Of course she does, she’s a Labour MP after all. But she does have a public platform and a surprising number of people take note of what she says.
394, URW:
Snap. I was thinking of using that very story just the other day. Ah, humour wins.
Further comments on GDP -
It looks very likely it will be revised up because ONS has been very conservative about its assumptions for industrial production in September (almost no bounce back from August’s strange drop) and also are very pessimistic about the September output number for services.
But as we are starting from -0.4 it could be a struggle to get back into positive territory. We will see.
410: If there is a plot (with Ed as the chosen one), the question now becomes ‘will the usual suspects, eg Harman, Balls, Milliband Snr’ go along with it?
Tim, as a blairite (which I have assumed you to be), I’d be interested in getting your opinion of Milliband the younger. Could he turn it around to a certain amount, or is he just too unknown?
413-You mean the ONS might be lent on to revise the figures up by Govt depts.
Will it work?
410. Ed Miliband would be my choice. I think he is talented the best potential leader Labour have got.
However, were it up to me I’d leave Brown to be tarnished by the defeat of the general election and only run for the leadership afterwards.
If he becomes leader now I think he’ll struggle to establish himself and will have huge expectations on his shoulders.
He might save some seats but not enough for him to avoid being damaged goods as Leader of the Opposition.
416 Oh I can’t see that happening after the fall-out from knifecrimestatsgate.
410 - Why would anyone who is not a racist join a racist party? I can just about understand why a non-racist might vote BNP, but to join up, well that’s a tricky one.
413. No that isn’t what I mean at all. If the ONS were susceptible in the manner you suggest presumably they wouldn’t have produced the first estimate in the way they have.
The point is the first estimates are based on very incomplete information and as further data arrives the picture can change somewhat. That’s especially the case this time around as the August IP figure was very odd.
414 - Harriet Harman has almost definitively ruled herself out of any post-Brown leadership contest. By virtue of her position, that makes her one of the most important kingmakers, since she is next in line and if a unity candidate did not meet her approval, she could stand on her rights.
So a very important question is: who would Harriet Harman back?
415 - I think that either Miliband, or Darling or Johnson would improve the situation.
From a betting perspective I need Johnson to stay as Home Secretary until New Years Eve and am a big winner if any of the other three take over.
Miliband the younger I’d always presumed would become favourite if Brown led the party into an election defeat.
With Ed Milliband, it would be a case of Ed who?
He’s the SoS for Energy and Climate Change. Hardly a big office of state. Post election as leader of opposition sure…but as PM? Labour would look desperate and lacking credibility (which they are).
417 Ditto. Labour are desperate if they are thinking of swapping to Mili Jnr pre-election.
If I were him, I’d stay well clear of any plot at this stage - he can pick up the pieces after the GE and be a fresh face - going down with Gordon’s legacy would be a nightmare career wise.
I also hope CCHQ have a contingency strategy in case Brown does go.
So much of the Tory strategy relies on “anti-Brownism” they may have a hard time pinning the trouble to Labours intrinsic philosophical approach to government if he does get the boot.
Cameron and Osbourne need to think of some counter-strategies pronto.
Milliband Jnr is much more closely linked to the Brown project than his older brother.
This will not help him.
I can’t see people like Purnell letting him have a clear run at it.
421. “Harriet Harman has almost definitively ruled herself out of any post-Brown leadership contest.”
Do you really believe that?
423 Slack
How many non-anoraks knew IDS, or even DC, before their election as Party Leaders?
402 - Are you sure its illegal to ask at interview whether someone is a member of the BNP?
There’s a question on the Police Application form and I think the Prison Service.
Its also legal to sack a white supremacist.
In a spirit of balance I wouldn’t employ a jihadist who believes the infidel are inferior either.
425 - surely the simplest one of those is to just remind people over and over again that, despite being in Government, Labour aren’t actually governing anymore - they’re just running around trying desperately to find someone the public likes from a collection of thoroughly unlikeable people…
426 Can’t imagine anybody having a ‘clear run’ at it, Simon. This time, there has to be an election. I reckon both Milibands could stand. Those who agree with me will want to place their bets early.
428: The difference being that its easier, much so, to grow into any position in opposition. Ed Milliband could easily become leader post election, but pre-election, becoming PM..I think a lot of people would question that on the basis of experience.
426. True. My doubts about Brown going are less the mechanism more the balls they have to do it.
Brown was toast in June 2009 - yet no-one moved a muscle.
Labour MPs are just spineless. Too many are standing down or will lose their seats to care enough to do it.
Also, I think a lot of them still actually quite like Brown and think he really *did* save the world.
Some are hanging on to a belief that he will expose Cameron in economics debates.
431. Peter - your tip is enough for me to place a bet. But I still don’t think it’ll happen.
431 - I think an all-out leadership campaign will only happen post-defeat
To attempt it during the last weeks of this parliament would be entertaining for the anoraks - but bad for the management of the country (yes, even worse than we are currently experiencing)
Very good by election results for the Tories yesterday, with a projected 18% lead over Labour;
http://www.24dash.com/news/Local_Government/2009-10-23-Tories-on-top-in-latest-council-by-elections
371 et al. I would employ then, if the said white supremacist was the ablest solicitor who applied for the position in question. I would expect them to separate their professional life from their political life.
Dismissing someone from their job because you find their political views offensive, would prima facie, be wrongful, and unfair, dismissal, unless the job description stipulated that certain political views were unacceptable.
‘even worse than we are currently experiencing’
Is that possible?
429: According to this, it would be:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7187032.stm
The police and prison service may well have legal opt-outs. But generally, you could not ask them that question.’What political party do you support?’
427 - She gave the Sherman reply recently (”if nominated, I will not accept; if drafted, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve”).
http://www.labourlist.org/harman-wont-stand-for-leadership-under-any-circumstances
The only let-out that I could see is that if Gordon Brown stood down, Harriet Harman would not need to be nominated, since she would automatically become Labour leader.
If having a leadership election looked like navel gazing before - it’ll *look* even worse now.
432 - The closes comparison would be with Major who’s three monthas Foreign Secretary (removed when it seemed he didn’t know where abroad was) and presenting one budget were hardly stellar CV performances.
Breaking …..
Brown announces operation fightback MK2222222222222222 starting on Monday !!
TC So a fascist on QT and fascists protesting outside. They all want workers to own the means of production. Thank goodness they only attract a few % of votes. Any change to a PR voting system needs to be opposed.
That’s a huge non-sequitur.
————-
I wonder what it will be like next time when (a) it’s Andrew Brons or Richard Barnborook instead of Nick Griffin (b) the questions are mostly about normal things instead of concentrating on BNP/Griffin issues (c) broadcast from Doncaster or Halifax rather than London.
The discussion about 17,000 years of indigenous population makes me wonder what it would be like if we could have a huge database of everybody who has ever existed. What if we could trace back 30 generations and identify all of Nick Griffin’s 1,073,741,824 great(28)-grandparents (there would of courcse be loads of duplicates) from about 1,000 years ago. How many were British? English? Nordic? Norman French? Saxon? African? Black? Hungarian? Mongolian?
442: Still 3 months and 11 months in two of the great offices of state though,
However if you want to compare Ed Milliband to John Major..please, go ahead.
429 ‘In a spirit of balance I wouldn’t employ a jihadist who believes the infidel are inferior either.’
Really? I’d have thought that would be the perfect trophy for the Guardianista about town - a perfect subject for cosy little dinner parties in Manchester.
437 - Its not to do with finding views offensive is it, its ability to do the job.
An active Islamist who believes the Kuffar to be inferior would be unlikely be able to do certain jobs wouldn’t they?
I thought that white supremacists had been sacked and lost at tribunal, or am I mistaken?
Today Darling says “I have always said we would see growth at the turn of the year”.
Nov 2008 Pre-budget Report he said I, too, am forecasting that output will continue to fall in the UK, for the first two quarters of next year.
But then, because of decisions taken in this Pre-Budget Report, I expect it to start to recover.”
Wrong!
447 - Tim, Labour’s immigration policy and economic mismanagement have led to a dramatic increase in support for the BNP; it may be easier to tag objectionable epithets to a million strong voting group than it is to address the root cause of their desertion from Labour, but until you can acknowledge this let alone comprehend it, you are pissing in the wind, sunshine.
Utterly unbelievably horribly bad GDP figures.
Labour are now personally responsible for giving us:
The longest recession in history.
The biggest deficit in the world.
The greatest debt in our peacetime history.
The sharpest slump since records began.
That’s your next general election calling card, Conservatives. Just print those four points on the card and hand it out to everyone.
I want this government to DIE.
444. Extend it a few million more generations and you will no doubt find relatives that were ape-men, apes, rodents, fish etc. But I’m not sure what is thereby achieved.
The fact we all have common ancestors if you go back far enough doesn’t alter the fact that there are big differences among the human populations of today. It’s a ludicrous approach that does little to counter the equally ludicrous arguments of Griffin et al.
448: To be fair, he did expect to see growth by the end of this year…he just expected to see it before then as well!!
444 John Loony, I view Griffin and the SWP & Unite protesters as acting in fascist ways and they share the same left wing views on how an economy should be run.
It is a pity that the media label the BNP as far right when in reality their economic policies are far left.
The problem with choosing a war film is that so often the book is better in regard the older ones. The Cruel Sea, Colditz, Cockleshell Heroes, The Wooden Horse, The Dam Busters, Carve Her Name with Pride, Reach for the Sky and so on.
Some, such as Goodbye Mickey Mouse and The White Rabbit have never been made into films as far as I know. And Popski’s Private Army would be a terrible film but it is a brilliant factual book.
Of the latest ones, Band of Brothers is superb for its realism and reflective nature. The Longest Day and Das Boot were up there too.
And for shoot ‘em up on a cold night with a warm drink in your hand then Where Eagles Dare is fun. But only fun. On a par with a Bond film.
tim, why are not commenting extensively on the GDP figures? Weren’t you predicting an upturn in the second half of this year?
More disastrous GDP figures.
Another Leadership Challenge
And another Gordon Brown fight back…
It must be Groundhog day…?
455 - No.
Turn of the year.
448. Well done for digging out that quote. I thought Darling had predicted growth to resume Q3 2009. I don’t know where this stuff about Christmas is coming from.
450. Labour = Bust!
Sorry forgot to mention earlier I thought QT last night was a bit of a damp squib really.
434 Casino
Thanks. I know you and one or two others follow my advice so I don’t give it lightly and I definitely back it with my own money.
I shall be watching closely how events unfold over the next couple of weeks. The PLP Leadership election will be crucial. If Brown’s man (Lloyd) is not reelected, the game’s pretty much up. Meanwhile, I am not laying off, despite Richard Nabavi’s perfectly accurate comments about minor arbs.
Oh, and as regards the timetable, it’s tight, but it works - just. No, a December resignation and January contest isn’t ideal, but then nor is going into a GE with Goron as your Leader.
434 Casino
Thanks. I know you and one or two others follow my advice so I don’t give it lightly and I definitely back it with my own money.
I shall be watching closely how events unfold over the next couple of weeks. The PLP Leadership election will be crucial. If Brown’s man (Lloyd) is not reelected, the game’s pretty much up. Meanwhile, I am not laying off, despite Richard Nabavi’s perfectly accurate comments about minor arbs.
Oh, and as regards the timetable, it’s tight, but it works - just. No, a December resignation and January contest isn’t ideal, but then nor is going into a GE with Gordon as your Leader.
450 - Why have they moved from Labour to the BNP? Why not the Tories or the Lib-Dems? Labour has clearly failed, but then so have the other parties as well because BNP voters clearly do not see them offering solutions to the problems they feel they face.
454. BoB wasn’t a film per se, it was a serial. But I have the book and it’s really very good. The theme tune to the serial is also stirring.
456 - Wasn’t everyone?
Another phone-in about Nick Griffin Show on R5, 80% think it was unbalanced, didn’t address the issues, didn’t learn anything.
Looks like the story is going to morph into a Gordon style mess - hype up a programme and then fluff the execution/hand sympathy vote to Mr Nasty
466 - Highly unlikely looking at the BNPs reaction.
Its done Griffin some spectacular damage.
44
“To get to the universal ancestors (when everyone was the forefather of everybody alive today, or of nobody) we need go back only 5,000 years. Had you entered any village on Earth, the first person you met would, if he or she had heirs, trace their descent straight to you and your partner.”
Prof. Steve Jones
447 - Why would a Guardian reader employ someeone who supported the introduction of sharia law into the UK?
343. The Enemy Below. I agree on pretty much all the other nominations. It’s not a film but Band of Brothers was also outstanding.
Ref the other WWII discussion, Britain’s involvement did materially affect the outcome of the war in the Pacific. The contribution to the atomic programme was probably worth at least a few months. That was the difference between Operation Olympic being launched and not.
The role of China always gets underplayed in the Japanese theatre and has been here. They were not unlike the Soviets againt the Germans (though even less well led, organaised and supplied): they bled the Japanese army massively. They were also the first victims of the war and as such the first signatories of the UN charter. Technically, WWII should be described as 1937-45.
Also, Midway didn’t doom Japan to defeat - though it was a crushing blow. Their fate was sealed either by the attack on Pearl Harbor itself, if one takes the big picture view, or Leyte Gulf, if concentrating on individual actions.
448 /458 - Didnt Darling already admit that was wrong at the time of the Budget?
471: Seeing as nigh on all of his predictions have been wrong who even knows?
320. I’m not even convinced Iwo Jima and Okinawa were strictly necessary.
If Britain hadn’t been fighting Germany, it’s not inconceivable that they could have forced a similar result with the Royal Navy.
Absolutely. The rationale behind Iwo and Okinawa was denial of runways there to Japan, and the acquisition thereof for the US. Taking Iwo enabled US fighters to reach Japan, but when they got there, they couldn’t often find anything willing to take off and fight.
It seems possible therefore that they needn’t have been taken.
The Commonwealth could easily have defeated Japan absent the European conflict. It would have taken a while for the Commonwealth’s enormous military potential to make itself felt, because you usually have to attack a democracy before it will arm itself to the teeth. But Japan didn’t covet the empire because it was poor.
Japan started WW2 with ten aircraft carriers - but only six fleet carriers - and added only one more purpose-built carrier before surrender. They built or part-built 16 more, but all were lashups or conversions. that makes 27.
The Fleet Air Arm, by 1945, had fifty-nine aircraft carriers and nearly 4,000 aircraft.
The RN had 15 battleships and battlecruisers; Japan had 10.
The RN had 66 cruisers in 1939; Japan had 35.
The RN had 184 destroyers; Japan had 81.
And so on.
Basically, the RN outnumbered the IJN 2 to 1 on a prewar basis. The RN’s later strength reflected additions built to combat submarines and the navies of Italy and Germany, so it understates how overwhelmingly stronger the RN would have been if optimised to defeat a carrier navy like Japan’s.
462 The timing makes sense - lets the public digest the news over the extended Christmas period and kicks off the New Year with a new leader.
472 - Of course it wasnt Darling that wrote the code for the model or set the inputs for the forecasts. That said he has to be happy that the output is reasonable but I dont think that HMT’s track record is noticeably worse than any other’s.
467 Another lefty on Planet Marx. Please get your warped head examined by the psychiatrist.
You don’t get it do you. Griffin has achieved what he wanted to achieve - victim status and being picked on 5-1 by a biased panel. Worsi and Greer will now be potrayed as anti-white racists.
Nick Griffin 5 - Lefties 1
475. Their record is pretty bad actually.
468 - I am not sure it has done him any great damage, bt it certainly did not provide the BNP with any momentum. What would really damage the BNP is to get on their other elected politicians such as the 2nd MEP and Barnbrook in London. Griffin gets all the BNP TV gigs for a reason.
451. Curiosity only - no other reason.
btw, I wonder what Warsi’s bleeps were?
467 Judging by what R5 listeners are saying - they think the BBC fluffed it.
Griffin can now play his victim card much more convincingly than before. 8m people watched him being torn apart - it doesn’t take many of them to like what he was saying on immigration/sex education or gays for it to give them an umwelcome boost.
I think Griffin’s point seems reasonable ‘ask me a couple of questions about what a wicked man I am and then ask about the issues of the day’. That’d be much more powerful way to dismantle his arguments/Labour to talk up why wavering peeps should vote for them.
Oh FFS ‘Gordon was too busy to tune in’…
Casino (and others)…one final word before I go off to watch Young Tot win the opener at Fakenham at 7/4….
Ed M has closed right in on the next Leader Markets - 6s is about the best you’ll get now, but there is still £90 at 24/1 available on Betfair for Next PM. Now, there may be a little more likelihood that he would win after an election but it’s not 10% difference. In fact, you could argue he might have a better chance now - when the number of candidates is small - than post election when any number of possibles would be likely to enter the fray.
The 24/1 is stonking good value. I’ve already filled my boots.
Other good markets to look at would include Betfair’s Party Leaders and SPIN’s ‘Brown and Out’, which I entered yesterday for the first time.
Even the more routine GE seats markets might be worth looking at. With Gordon, I don’t see them winning more than 180 seats and a total meltdown is possible. A change of Leader, handled well and given a fair sort of wind, might just see them hold the line above 200.
Good luck, whatever you do.
477 - compared to…?
How long will it be before IRA style murders get used by both the far left and far right extremists over immigration/multiculturalism. People are boiling with anger and the white man’s representative was being patronised by two ethnic minority women - not very good for race relations.
480 - “Oh FFS ‘Gordon was too busy to tune in’…”
The vast majority of people didnt watch it. Was there something wrong with this?
481 (Addendum)
Sorry. Forgot to mention. There is also stonking good value in the Paddy Power Brown Exit Market. As the esteemed Peter from Putney has pointed out more than once, you can get 8/1 for the December/February period. If Brown does go pre-election, it just about has to be in that window, so it is fantastic value.
Sadly, they won’t take my bets.
483 What was your opinion on Straw?
483 - Calm down love. Dear me, and you ask for others to get their heads’ checked.
480 - Griffin had his moment, 8 Million watched and he blew it.
And his whinging today just amplifies it.
Have a listen to Kelvin Mackenzie on the Today programme at 8.10 this morning
477 - Of course the panel is going to be biased. Are you going to find a non-biased panel when those invited to take part are politicians?
The BNP’s views were represented by 20% of the people on the QT panel last night, which is 14% more than the electoral support the party received at the European elections and 17% more than it enjoys in the most favourable current opinion polls. Someone who has shared platforms with the KKK, has denied the holocaust took place, has called for non-whites to be repatriated and so on is bound to stir strong emotions. The idea that they and their views should not be discussed because such discussions may reveal most people find them repugnant is a pretty bizarre one, I have to say.
484 - because whether he watched it or not is not the point. However, such a comment is a way of making sure he doesn’t have to say what he thought of it or the performances. In other words, it’s him being a coward - again.
469-Good question, but they do! It’s the unholy alliance between the left and the Islamists.
447-An active Islamist who believes the Kuffar to be inferior would be unlikely be able to do certain jobs wouldn’t they?
Would this extend to those who wear veils on their heads/or cover themselves in burqas? Or grow their beards long to show their piety? Should they be asked their views on suicide bombings in UK (seems most against), Israel (mostly in favour?), Iraq/Afghanistan (more mixed) during their interview process. Depending on their answers should they then be emloyed in security sensitive places (airpots, passport control, etc?) or even in McDoanlds (they may be tempted to blow themselves up…).
btw-If you did, the same Grauniadista types would be the first to scream blue murder.
And of course if you haven’t read ‘Spycatcher’ by Oreste Pinto you are missing a key piece in the historical jigsaw. tim might learn something about divided loyalties and irresistible pressures in that book.
481 - If people liked what Griffin had to say last night they will vote for him and his party. However, my guess is that most of those who have not yet voted BNP would not have been too impressed with him. The worst that can happen is that the 6% or so who voted BNP in the Euros will not have had their minds changed. It is difficult to see how you can have a measured debate involving a studio audience when what Griffin believes is so repugnant to so many people.
447 Again, it would depend on whether the fundamentalist could separate his professional life, from his religious beliefs. That’s probably easier for lawyers than for many people, simply because so many lawyers are used to arguing against what they may privately believe, on behalf of their clients.
I believe there have been cases where BNP members who’ve been sacked because of their party membership have attempted to bring discrimination claims, and have lost. But that’s a separate issue from either wrongful or unfair, dismissal.
488 Griffin may have had his moment and could have done better had he have had 5 panelists and the audience ganging up against him. People are looking at how unbalanced and biased the chair was. White people who you obviously hate see something different to you. UAF scum outside, an ethic audience with anti-white agendas and two ethnic females patronising a white man. Not good for establishment either.
492 - What holy alliance? If there was such an alliance why was it that a Labour government took us into a war with Iraq and the Taliban?
491 -Didn’t he later introduce a TV series based on his book, and was generally nicknamed ‘Arrest’em Pronto’?
482 Neil, Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph did a graph showing how bad the Treasury have been at forecasting public finances - comparing the budget forecasts from 2001 onwards with reality. These were predicated on the underlying GDP and other forecasts.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100001435/fiscal-meltdown-averted-well-see/
They aren’t supportive of Treasury forecasting. UK needs equivalent of the US Congress Office of Budget Management in at least having an independent forecast outside of the Treasury. The Treasury published forecasts are perhaps presented with too much political input.
Peter the Punter, Thanks for sharing that info about the Mole. I was beginning to feel uncomfortable wt my huge position against Gordon stayin’. If the rumours persist and smoke appears on the horizon, I will try to reduce my exposure by half…
Get your money on John Smeaton for the Glasgow East by-election. He’ll pick up a number of votes amongst people disillusioned with the established political parties.
What is it with Millband Jnr? Sorry folks but I dont see it. He is an incompetent lightweight who makes Michael Foot look like a statesman. He always looks as though he is about to burst into tears like a guest on the Jeremy Kyle show.
495 - It’s the ones to the left of Labour who were most opposed to the war.
496 - You clarly have a very low opinion of most people in this country if you feel that they were mostly focused on “two ethnic females criticising a white man”.
494 - I think it was fair for Greer and Warsi to patronise Griffin don’t you, as they are both clearly a lot more able, intelligent articulate, attractive and socially useful than the podgy little Aryan twitcher, don’t you?
Perhaps if Griffin wasn’t part Gypsy his performance would’ve been better though.
I suggest you get a tall blond guy next time.
Those are shocking GDP figures.
The extended lines of logistics would have made defeating japan verging impossible - in the hypothetical situation above
The campaign in Burma shows how difficult it would have been
497 - Forecasts never match outturn, how did HMT’s forecasts do against other those from other forecasters?
507 - The majority of economists employed in the City have been made to look very foolish over the last few years. Today was no exception.
502 - Warsi was excellent. I think most people’s reaction to Greer would be “whose she?” and “what’s an American doing talking about British politics?”, even though the BBC were careful to caption her as a Trustee of the British Museam.
How caome this Francis person gets his comments through, when some of mine are held in moderation?
501 Wrong again Marxian, stop twisting the facts. White people do not like being patronised nor do we like to ethnics taking sides against our race, nor do we want hear or see unbalanced debates.
The one thing all you Marxians (people from planet Marx) is everything so or do is right, you believe in bending rules and changing laws to suit your petty anglophobic and anti-white racist opinions. Death to the lot of you commies.
Sorry, “Who’s she?”
506. Always nice to hear the views of a genuine expert.
507 - And to think, most of the Tories on here wanted Davis or Hague.
495-Oh come off it! Most of the non-Muslim opposition was headed by your epitome of lefty Graunaid types.
479. JL, She spelt out a four letter word, beginning with C.
Used by the BNP to describe Churchill, remember.
498 Philippe
The Mole is definitely one to follow, so bookmark The First Post if you haven’t already.
As you probably know, Henry G (PB’s own mole) was on here recently, estimating Gordon’s survival prospects at 25% (i.e 1/3 on he goes). At the time, I suggested it was more like 75% (3/1 against). I’ve now moved my position must closer to Henry’s. I reckon it’s even money at most, maybe even a shade of odds on.
Btw, don’t I owe you some money?
509 - Warsi was the star for me and looks like she will be a real asset for the Tories. She’s wasted in the Lords and should have held on for a winnable Commons seat. Greer did not need to be there and what she was trying to say just did not work in a QT format.
509 francis - I think you missed my question - what did you think of Straw’s performance?
517 Straw
Pathetic and what he did better was from text book. Labour are terrible.
Can someone explain the picture on the BBC frontpage, I understand how someone on a laptop relates to ‘Get online’ but no why the women has a puppy sleeping on her puppies
510 - Ahhh, you are a BNP supporter. That explains an awful lot. I blame the lizards myself.
509 - Did you not think Griffin fancied Greer?
I saw a little twinkle and a shy grin amongst his awkwardness and fear.
There was definitely something there, but then he realised she was out of his league.
Poor Nick.
Bet he cracked one off when he got home though.
512: Lucky the tories have a good depth of talent isn’t it.
515 - Is Ken Clarke a Guardianista? I guess Malcolm Rifkind must be as well.
520 So I’m a BNP supporter! No I am an English Nationalist.
francis, do us a favour go back to the blogs sites you normally infest, you are leaving a bit of a whiff here.
521: Mind Bleach!!!!
507 I think Hague would have delivered the coup-de-grace on Griffin, which would have been mockery. Think of Hague when he destroyed Gordon Brown on the prospect of Blair as EU President - with even Miliband cracking up in mirth - then imagine what he could have done with the vast pile of weaponry available to him. If everybody had simply been laughing at Griffin as a deranged loon, it would have been less “worthy” form of combat - but a damn site more effective…
521 - That post says more about you than Greer or Griffin.
Seek help, quick.
peter the punter - Ed (Milliband) is a “shoo-in” for next leader.
I don’t know why I don’t put a stallion on it - or is it a pony or a nag or a monkey?
I’m not a betting ban - otherwise its money for old rope. It makes it all the more likely if Blair is out for EU President and bananaman then has no probs becoming EU Foreign Sec. He in turn can work his ticket to be EU President. Ah - the power and the Glory. Next EU Pres - that Spanish bloke.
Indeed the way the cards are falling we can expect Mandelbum to lobby against Blair so he gets his man to be labour leader.
Easy peasy money.
526 - What’s the difference?
523-Most of the non-Muslim opposition was headed by your epitome of lefty Graunaid types.
Please read the first word. Seems Nick Griffin was also against the war, but not sure if he reads the Grauniad.
Actually, I read the Grauniad on-line every day, usually the first page I open. I need to get my fix of moral indignation very day you see.
And yes, I was against the illegal war without UN sanction.
The one in Kosovo.
516 Agree - watched a bit for second time and her approach was much more effective than Huhne & Straw, who were over prepared to attack and this blunted their effectiveness.
Maybe also as Warsi & Greer have probably been victims of racism they were better able to deal with a racist.
I think now might be an appropriate time to draw attention to this infamous comment:
“There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’. Just 11 years of moderate growth to be followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession.”
by Gabble October 26th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
HYS on QT - either the BNP have a lot of people recommending their own comments, or more likely - lots of people didn’t think much of the panel’s tactics.
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&forumID=7149&edition=1&ttl=20091023132902&#paginator
OT, but another symptom of a dying regime?
The children’s secretary, Ed Balls, clashed with social work leaders today as he was accused of stopping professionals getting out to see vulnerable families and wasting their time on paperwork to prop up an “ineffective” inspection regime.
In tense exchanges following his speech to the National Children and Adult Services conference in Harrogate, Balls rejected a plea to reduce the “heavy-handed” bureaucracy that kept social workers away from the frontline.
He said the failures in Haringey highlighted by the death of Baby Peter had nothing to do with record-keeping and were down to poorly coordinated interventions by different agencies.
But Hilton Dawson, a former Labour MP and chief executive of the British Association of Social Workers, told him: “That response simply won’t do.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/oct/23/balls-clash-social-work-leaders
Afternoon all. Just woken up.
“Oh, my good god” was my reaction.
Thanks, Gordon.
Does anyone get on with Ed Balls….he’s the kind of person which would fall out with his own shadow.
Are you sure, tim, I don’t seem to remember you predicting the Longest and Deepest Recession in British History.
Perhaps because you didn’t predict it. Yet here we are. Well done.
Meanwhile nearly all of our competitors are now emerging from recession.
Best placed? Grr.
533 Gabble = ££££ Tw@
533. Quite incredibly, Gabble was claiming this as a “moderate recession” just a week or two ago.
538 - Sure Sean.
Is it as deep as the Early Eighties?
533 - I love Gabble sometimes.
541: Ah yes..another thing to blame labour on.
481/485. Peter - thanks.
Sadly, by the time I get home and log-on to Betfair I fear the value bets will all have gone.
470. David: “Technically, WWII should be described as 1937-45.”
Agree with that.
504. Logistics would have been a major challenge. However, in this alternative scenario (no Nazis) India, Burma, Malaya and Singapore are secured with a strong British Expeditionary Force, defended by a number of RAF squadrons and a decent Naval Fleet and, in alliance with the Dutch, protecting the resource rich Dutch East Indies.
Of course, there then begs the question as to whether Britain would have bothered. Gearing up to fight a total war against Japan using a fully mobilised war economy and deploying most of the RN and the BEF to the Far East would have been a tough sell.
But, if it had, it could have made a decisive difference because of Japans comparative weakness.
That was the original argument.
540 – You can’t blame Gabble though…he just reads the script handed to him..
533. Almost as funny as..
*POSTS SION SIMON ARTICLE LINK*
541. Yes tim, I am sure, and I will offer you a £100 bet on it.
541-I think deeper, but am happy to be corrected. What was change peak to trough?
I think this time round unemployment is lagging and so it may not feel like that to your average punter.
So far.
545
Don’t attack Gabble. He’s my favourite clown…
Where is the link to this classic Sion twattery?
*brooomie accent*
“Y-y-you see.. I *understand*… because oi’m jost loike you. Yeah, my name’s ‘Dave’.. and Oi’m JOST LOIKE you.”
As we are still in recession, am I alone in wondering: what the hell does £175 BILLION of QE get you these days if not a recovery???
It is difficult to know what to be most shocked by in the gross domestic product figures published by the Office for National Statistics this morning: the fact that we are in the longest-lasting deepest continuous recession in recorded history or that no-one in the City foresaw it*.
Leaving aside the City’s failings, with which we are intimately familiar, the scale of the economic collapse is disturbing. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research has been calling this a “depression” rather than a recession for some time – these figures surely now underline such a description.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100001543/this-recession-just-became-a-depression/
547 - Oooh, can I have £100 on it being the longest recession in British history?
551. A stock market bubble.
I’ll spare you further blushes tim, and just prove my point.
http://www.citywire.co.uk/Adviser/-/news/market-and-shares/content.aspx?ID=363890
“The current downturn is the longest the country has ever seen, with a shock preliminary reading of GDP showing a 0.4% fall in output in the three months to September.
The contraction means that the economy has shrunk 6% over the past six months - more than the 5.8% peak to trough decline in the early 1980s recession”
554 Good point, well made…
551
QE = KY
“The U.K.’s recession is now the longest since quarterly records began in 1955. The economy has also contracted around 6% from its peak, surpassing the 5.8% decline in the early 1980s recession, said Charles Davis, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-gdp-posts-unexpected-04-decline-2009-10-23
551 - it’s gets David Blanchflower a hug and lollipop from Brown.
555. SeanT - don’t be silly.
Have you not seen this?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
554
About to pop - wait 2-3 weeks…
557 “QE = KY”
£175 Billion is a lot of Jelly! But then, if you are going to shaft the entire country…
557. KY Jelly does not cost £175 billion.
538 - “Sure Sean” was a reply to your “Are you Sure tim” question.
It’ll be touch and go on the depth when the figures are finalised.
On the length of the recession I’ll leave you to have a bet with Neil.
563, not now, but after another six months of Brown….
563
“For Brown the politics of this are simply dreadful. He can no longer say it used to be worse under the Tories, with this recession longer than they managed. And it is not inconceivable that it could be a trigger leading to his removal, with a cabinet in deepest despair and his backbenchers furious with him over MPs expenses.
“The news also sets the seal on the Shakespearean nature of his time in public life: from the high of being supposedly “the greatest ever Chancellor” to the low of becoming the Prime Minister who presided over the longest recession on record.
“He will just hate it, be tortured by it, rage against his critics and curse fate. But while the wreckage of his hopes is something truly terrible for him to ponder, it is the country that is stuck with the practical consequence”
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/10/23/gdp-numbers-sink-gordon-browns-last-hope/
Sean Ley? on TWAO tried to pin Darling Down on the vat rise,and that it would go back up to 17.5% Furthermore Darling was saying he only thought there would be growth at the turn of the year. IIRC he initially said there would be growth in the 3rd Qr, and his prjection of 3.5% growth now looks ridiculous.
551: Marquee Mark
My sentiments exactly. Add in another £175bn+ of borrowed money and the lowest interest rates ever…and we still can’t grow AT ALL.
Plus we still have easily the largest personal average debt in Europe! The economy is in deep deep trouble.
When will people cease to be “surprised” by these consistently below expectation numbers. There’s a bit of a trend AFAICS - it’s always worse than expected.
Cameron must be gutted - he will be PM when the best he can hope for is a slightly less unpalatable flavour of awful in economic terms. He cannot hope to turn the economy round into decent growth and actually run a thriving country.
Can we have a new thread on this GDP horror please? It is going to dominate politics for a while, maybe up to the election.
562. OK - your repost was funnier!
568. “IIRC he initially said there would be growth in the 3rd Qr, and his prjection of 3.5% growth now looks ridiculous.”
Now looks ridiculous? I don’t recall reading any review of the budget that thought such growth was plausible.
570 - Would you like to tell us again what a mistake it was to put Greer and Warsi up against Griffin?
565 So was Gordon Brown moonlighting and running the Zimbabwean economy to augment his expenses given how much cleaners have to be paid to clean empty unoccupied flats these days!
The atrocity is not that a stupid, lying c*** such as Gabble says stupid, lying c***ish things.
But when I point out that he is stupid, lying c***, when I call him a stupid lying c***, I am not allowed to do this.
Why is this?
573. What’s the UK average grain yield per acre tim?
Will this news be out in time for the HIGNFY recording?
573. Don’t change the subject tim.
We are talking about what a FOOL you’ve made of yourself.
567 It just goes to shaw how thick the Americans are. First Blair and now Brown as world statesman of the year.
573. tim, Who gives an aeronautical bunk-up about Griffin and Greer. Get back on subject you horrible, ugly, smelly, disgusting little lefty.
You guys have f*cked the British economy for a generation. Well done.
579 - Merely making the point that you have a habit of calling things wrong.
ISTR reading somewhere around the time of the last quarterly GDP car crash that the private sector was either already smaller than in 1997 or on course to be.
Anyone else remember that? Or did I misremember myself?
Instead of worrying about tits like Griffin the opposition parties should be pressing Gordon to stand aside and call an immediate GE in the urgent national interest.
Forget it Peter, it was only £5! I don’t even know if it can buy a drink to OGH in inflationary UK…
Has team tim read this?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5464888/if-antisemitism-is-the-problem-then-the-tories-shouldnt-sit-with-the-epp-either.thtml
580 – Desperate attempt by Tim to shift the topic by going low. You are so predictable.
555. “the economy has shrunk 6% over the past six months”.
Past six quarters surely?
How many seats did you predict the BNP would win, tim?
569. Jon C.
Actually the minor economic numbers had generally been better than expectations over the last 3 months so this further big fall is a huge shock.
Griffin is only a tawdry sordid little sideshow anyway and too much has been made of him and the BNP.
Labour F*cking up the entire country is rather more serious.
579 - You’re not tempted by the offer of a bet at 553?
new thread
0.
Got it wrong, although still showed a profit on the Euros as you’ll remember.
590: Stop trying to play little word games with bet Neil. you’re as bad as tim.
580.
Who Gives. No one. Yesterday was Griffin Day.
Today we have the rather more important news that you, your party, your government has engineered the deepest and longest recession in modern times, despite the fact that your leader said we were “best placed”.
And this disaster ties in neatly with your leaving us with the biggest deficit in the world, and the largest debt in our peacetime history.
You are now OFFICIALLY the worst government in modern British history. It’s not even disputable. Them’s the figures.
And you took us into two stupid and unwinnable wars.
Jesus. Jesus jesus jesus. This is beyond partisan sniping. You are catastrophic. You are a calamity. Just leave. Every day you hold desperately onto power destroys the country that little bit more.
Just take your f*cking stupid one eyed prime minister and GO.
NEW THREAD
592 - everyone wins on pb.com! (Though I do actually believe you; you’re clearly a shrewd punter)
For those of you who like maps that do “stuff”. The real cost of the recession.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/lm-interactive/percent-wap-jsa.asp
QT simply reminded me that there are now two Englands. The bit that is trendy multi-cultural London …and the rest. Certainly on my infrequent visits to the Capital, I see fewer and fewer “aborigines”. (To use Griffin`s description.) Thankfully in Scotland our culture remains reasonably intact.
Re Is this the deepest recession?
Not if it is a depression!
512: admittedly Bonnie Greer is American by birth and still sounds American, but she’s lived in London for well over 20 years. I’d say she has a perfect right to opinions about British politics.
Rob
well bonnie was about 180,000 years off the nadir of the neanderthal lol