Where are the BNP votes coming from?
October 25th, 2009
A guest article from Peter Ould
It’s commonly asserted that BNP voters are most likely to be disaffected Labour supporters. For example, Iain Dale on Saturday noted that the places that the BNP have done well are all strong Labour constituencies. Equally, some Labour commentators have blamed the rise of the BNP on the lack of an effective Conservative opposition. Which is it?
To examine both these propositions I decided to look at some polling data. Taking the four polling firms that collect and publish previous vote patterns for all parties (ICM, Populus, ComRes, Mori), I’ve taken data from their polls immediately before and after the European Elections in June (when the BNP vote was at its highest to give us as large a population as possible) and analysed the data for what BNP voters said they did last time. The results are interesting.
Of the 132 men and women who said they were going to vote BNP, a staggering 65% didn’t vote for one of the big three parties last time - most of those are very likely not to have voted at all. This means that well over half of BNP voters are not disaffected Labour voters, but rather simply aren’t normally voters at all. Of the remaining 35%, the split is 10% Conservative, 20% Labour and 5% Lib Dem.
What we can safely say is that where BNP voters have voted before, they’re most likely (more than half) to have been Labour voters, but most BNP voters did not show a preference at the 2005 election. This then begs a second question - if most BNP voters are not previous Labour voters after all, are they like Labour voters (given that their vote tends to maximise in Labour constituencies)?
Once again the polling firms help us as they collect demographic information which can help us discern any similarities in voting populations. Here again are the figures from polls before and after the European Elections.
| AB | C1 | C2 | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Con | 32.8 | 32.4 | 16.5 | 18.2 |
| Lab | 26.1 | 28.6 | 19.2 | 26.0 |
| Lib Dem | 35.3 | 29.1 | 17.2 | 18.4 |
| BNP | 18.9 | 18.9 | 34.8 | 27.3 |
A table of correlations highlights for us what should already be apparent:
| BNP | Con | Lab | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Con | -0.944 | ||
| Lab | -0.900 | 0.728 | |
| Lib Dem | -0.898 | 0.962 | 0.617 |
Far from BNP voters being similar to Labour voters and drawn from the same demographic sectors, the data shows that BNP voters are much more likely to be C2DE than any of the three main parties.
What’s the profile then of BNP voters from this brief analysis? We get a picture of a man or woman, most likely C2DE, who didn’t vote at the 2005 election (though if they did vote they were most likely to have supported Labour). It appears therefore that rather than the BNP tapping into disaffected Labour votes, they have actually managed to mobilise a previously non-participating part of the electorate and persuaded them to go out and cast ballots.
Lessons to be learned by the three main parties perhaps?
Peter Ould is a site lurker and normally hangs out at Forecast UK and his own personal website.
MessageSpace Advertising
It’s a mystery, given that most racists haven’t even grasped the basic skills to form a cross with a pencil…
Going on current evidence: Nuremberg, 1938.
Third Reich.
2 -
1 The failures of Labour, Lib Dems and Tories are responsible for the increase in BNP support. Please be assured I will not be posting again today. I will be searching for all the daggers tomorrow.
Seems like a decent analysis.
In the Seventies the NF was commonly assumed to have disintigrated when Thatcher made her “Swamped” statement, somehow presuming that NF voters went to the Tory Party.
It’s at least as possible that they simply stopped voting when the NF imploded in factionalism.
FPT 458. MichaelK “Sure, he’s risk-averse, but he can’t be as utterly fearful of uncertainty as all that or he wouldn’t have chosen a political career in the first place.”
You need to look at Gordo’s political history. It is littered with campaigns in which he was either the only candidate or guaranteed victory. He appears to have consistently run away from fair fights.
Superb little article, Peter. Thank you.
Fwliw, the one BNP supporter amongst my friends did not vote at the previous GE, nor does he normally vote. He will probably vote this time. So, he fits your pattern.
Btw, under what name do you normally post, if indeed you do?
I posted this on an old thread earlier today but as it is nearly on topic.
I think there are, over this and previous threads a number of wrong premises regarding the WWC. Many of whom I consider responsible for the upsurge in BNP and UKIP polling, certainly it should be called the working class because all ethnic groups are in the same position.
All I can go on is my experience in the motor trade. 10 years ago every large garage I visited had a valet dept, consisting of a number of local unskilled people of many different ethnic backgrounds this was a stable workforce prepared to do what is a really sh1tty job for low wages.
Now there is not one large garage I know of that has any local valeters. The reason, Eastern Europeans coming in and working for a lot less. It takes 6 hours to clean up a used car for the forecourt; companies were contracting in this new workforce charging £15 a car. With the minimum wage regulations no garage could afford not to use these companies.
Where did these locals go when they lost their jobs? They can’t all be absorbed by Mac D’s and Tesco.
I assume this happened to numbers of unskilled workers right across other sectors of the economy.
If any of them started to protest about it they got shut down with cries of racist from the likes of M. Senior and others, maybe they were not organised enough or intellectually equipped to put up cogent arguments, but we are all equal in the ballot box. The BNP and UKIP offer a solution to their problems with their policies re. the EU. The public face of the BNP portrays concern for them, unlike any other party.
Until the main parties start identifying and addressing these problems, parties like UKIP and the BNP will continue growing. And for sure slogans like BJFBW will only make the situation worse. Conflating immigration with racism is an abhorrent attempt to close down the argument.
6 – Tim, enough petty point scoring from yesteryear. Try and engage with a problem that affects all parties today and one that could have a serious impact for our nation in less than 6 months time.
“It appears therefore that rather than the BNP tapping into disaffected Labour votes, they have actually managed to mobilise a previously non-participating part of the electorate”
They could also be taking votes from the portion of the electorate that used to vote but stopped in 2001 and 2005. It would be interesting to know the longer-term allegiances of these people.
Don’t forget the huge drop in turnout since 92. It would be interesting to see who they used to vote for before this.
A very interesting analysis, though I’m not entirely sure that we can conclude too much from a fairly small data sample.
One other element which I believe may be relevant is the political culture of an area.
The BNP seems to do better in areas where there is a strong dominant party (which has grown complacent), and weak orthodox opposition OR any opposition has tended to be outside the party structure.
Stoke has historically been VERY strongly Labour (the Council was - not so long ago - 60-0-0-0); Conservatives and Lib Dems have been weak, other than in the odd small area; when Labour slipped back miscellaneous Independents had some success.
Barking & Dagenham - Labour dominant; Tories & Lib Dems weak.
Boston - not an area I know well, but I suspect the Lib Dems are pretty weak, and there has been an Independent tradition (Boston By Pass Independents).
Interesting that in Burnley once the Lib Dems got their act together they rolled back the BNP progress.
On my own patch most areas are prety strongly contested either Lab/Con or Lab/Lib Dem. BNP has stood, but usually last placed and has never emerged as a credible force.
10 - Its not point scoring, the opposite in fact.
My point is that voters motivated to vote for a racist party tend not to vote if that party is not standing, rather than vote for one of the mainstream parties.
Interesting article, it is interesting that where the BNP has been performing well, usually turnout has increased which makes you think it’s the usual non voters registering protest.
Address their concerns and the BNP will melt away like a chocolate fireguard.
13 - But look at turnout in Stoke since the sixties and seventies.
If only 50-60% of people are voters there’s a pool of people in their twenties and thirties who’ve never voted.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/10/25/bombard-bnp-nick-with-food-website-91466-25007213/#sitelife-comments-bottom
Is this not incitement of terrorism by BNP opponents lol
Dinner Time!
13 - I’d certainly go with the argument that it is in areas of domination that have had an issue. Certainly my area is pretty heavily Conservative and we had one BNP councillor for a while. Politics is much more of a niche activity now than in the past and wheras in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s parties could call on an army of door-knockers that is now more a dedicated band. Most areas don’t get worked in the ways they used to.
When the BNP succeed it is usually off the back of assiduous effort, in my area 4 or 5 leaflet drops from them wasn’t uncommon. Ultimately I think that the way to beat them isn’t in the air but on the ground. Parties just need to do the legwork.
7. Scott P October 25th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Yes, I realise that there is substance in the claim that he tends to avoid anything like a genuine contest.
I just don’t expect that it will lead to him quitting now. His life’s ambition has been to be Prime Minister and he must always have known that electoral uncertainty comes with that job and that he wouldn’t be able to sidestep it.
Of course, it’s possible that he expected to be wildly popular and thought that a series of landslides were nailed on. If that’s so then maybe he will cut and run. But is even GB that deluded?
Hmm, put like that, I’m starting to waver
From John Rentoul in the Independent.
‘The proof lies in maps prepared by Ben Page of Ipsos MORI, which compare the BNP vote in the London Assembly election of last year with that of the Labour Party at its lowest point in the 1970s.
They are strikingly similar: sociologically and electorally, the BNP vote is the old Labour core vote. That was the secret of Boris Johnson’s victory: he won that vote; Ken Livingstone, pursuing the rainbow coalition strategy of his early left origins, thought he could win by mobilising the ethnic minority vote. So it is not just the BNP vote next year that matters, although it will come at Labour’s expense, but the hidden part of the iceberg that goes over to the Conservatives.’
Fairly conclusive that a large portion of the BNP vote is the ‘old Labour core vote.
Mr Ould - fascinating article - many thanks for the analysis.
If it proves accurate, then the really peed off have found somewhere to register their frustration and anger.
FPT
Francis you are not the same person as Will L are you? I notice that both of you keep talking about an English genocide and I’m struggling to understand what this means, especially considering:
1)The population of the UK is 92% white (according to Wikipedia)so if the Muslims are looking to take over it will take them a very long time (you would need another 53 million Muslims for there to be a Muslim majority)
2)While there has been some immigration from Muslim countries the biggest trend in immigration over the last few years has been from Eastern Europe - i.e. white Christians.
3)While Muslims may have large families so do the white working class. I thought the problem was supposed to be young (white) girls having babies to get a council house?
Thanks for clarifying!
“who didn’t vote at the 2005 election”
I think Labour had already lost a lot of working class voters between 2001 and 2005 because of immigration. Hence why they were desperate to chase the Tories off that ground.
Apart from that though i think the main point has a lot of truth in it.
Simplified generalization: In a solid Labour area you could divide people into roughly 4 equal groups - solid Labour, semi-solid Labour, nominal Labour and Tory.
The nominal Labour are the sort of in the middle ones who saw Labour as a bit too anti-patriotic and Tory as too pro-capitalist. As they don’t fit that well in either party they’re less likely to vote consistently.
8 - I know several BNP voters (well, from the locals / europeans)
none from tories
3 from Labour (all solidly working class backgrounds but one of which is now in the City and doing very well)
a handful of 20 somethings (from a fairly prosperous corner of the country which does not have a significant immigrant population).
no idea who (if anyone) the younger group would have voted for in past elections.
Agree that is a thought provoking and interesting article.
.
Just thinking about what Obama did in the US - IIRC, his campaign focused heavily on mobilising the non-voter/unregistered.
If so, are the BNP following the same strategy?
Does anyone know what proportion of the eligible population aren’t on the electoral roll? And if this is more marked in the C2DE categories? I’d guess yes for reasons of apathy/identification.
Good and relevant article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/gavinhewitt/2009/10/the_bnp_and_the_white_working.html
The bitterness of the WWC with regard to Labour’s immigration betrayal cannot be exaggerated. The fact we now know Labour’s plans for mass immigration were enacted secretly and covertly, in case the poor whites complained, is not exactly going to help.
As a result of all this, I reckon Labour will reap a harvest of electoral failure for a generation.
20. There wasn’t much electoral uncertainty about Blair’s 3 election victories which were pretty much coronations by the electorate. Brown thinks he is cleverer than Blair (he may well be right) and has an autistic inability to see that there is more to life than cleverness. He therefore thought at least until autumn 2007 that general elections would be coronations like Blair’s but bigger and better. He still does not understand why this is not so, but he does know that the fault lies with the electorate, not with him.
27. It’ll be interesting to see if this story gets more traction in the coming weeks. If so, then I agree the consequences for Labour could be very severe indeed.
28 Spot on - remember what his default argument is “You are WRONG”.
28. Though he also had experience of personal defeat, in 1979, and the let-down for his party in 1992. But you could be right, and he may have interpreted away those memories.
Not sure this data analysis suports the thesis that most BNP voters “aren’t normally voters at all” They weren’t voters in 2005, that’s all we can say for sure.
Turnout in 2005 was well down, IIRC on 2001, certainly down on 1997. So how many BNP voters voted Labour in 1997,2001, then abstained, and now might vote BNP? Could be a lot
Interesting analysis though. I think the BNP might pick up a few botes from those who woudl otherwise have not voted this time, due to a general anti-politician feeling from expenses, as well as the perception of being ignored on issues like immigration.
29. I don’t believe the Neather/LabourTra1torsGate story will ever get much obvious media traction. Why? Because it is simply too provocative and incendiary to be discussed in polite circles - i.e. the broadsheets or the BBC.
However it will do its damage below the media waterline, in the red tops. The story has already appeared in the Star, the Express, the Mail, and the Mail on Sunday. That’s millions of working class and lower middle class voters who now know the truth.
They will talk about it in pubs, at work, everywhere: it’s too astonishing to be forgotten.
And 8m people watched Griffin on Newsnight.
Very interesting, Peter, thanks for that.
At Ladbrokes, we saw a lot of cash yesterday for the BNP to win a seat at 4/1. This may have been connected to the odds being mentioned in Saturday’s edition of The Daily Sport.
I’ve been trying to put myself in the shoes of someone who was at heart/tradition a Labour voter who felt that ‘they’re all the same’ and were ignoring the issues that I had:
- can’t get work/trapped on benefits
- feel disapproved of by New Labour’s middle-class ways
- surrounded by people you have little in common with
- feel threatened by a different culture that’s taking/taken over
- PCness/media fanning of the issue whilst simultaneously telling me I’m a racist
I think if someone knocked on my door and said - ‘We understand, I’m just like you, you’re not a racist - you just want to feel equal - vote for us’, I can see the temptation.
Interesting post on CoffeeHouse suggesting that the Conservatives now have a monopoly on optimism.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5470933/the-tories-now-have-a-monopoly-on-the-language-of-optimism.thtml
lost a post - lets try again
Iain Dale has linked to that Telegraph article
To quote Iain
“it’s a Labour government that has failed the communities which is used to regard as its client state. It’s a Labour government, which we are told tonight by one of its own advisers, that deliberately encouraged as much immigration as possible in order to make Britain a truly multicultural society. Well that worked well, didn’t it?
He also guesses that
” I’d say that 80% of BNP voters are ex-Labour voters.”
33 - The BNP got fewer than 200,000 votes in GE2005. I suspect that most of the viewing figures was morbid curiosity.
38. Morbidly curious, but also concerned about immigration.
I don’t know a single person in the UK who ISN’T concerned about immigration. They are concerned either from the point of view that there are too many migrants, or from the point of view that there are so many migrants it is fuelling the BNP.
I don’t know a single person who thinks migration is absolutely fine as it is, no problem, not an issue, hey can we have more, aside from lunatics who pretend this is the case when they write for the Guardian.
Moreover, immigration (and the associated issues of law and order, benefits cheating, etc) have been near the top of most voters’ priorities for years, as the polls have shown. Yet Labour have studiously ignored these concerns, and carried on importing millions of people.
It was bound to blow up in the end, and so it has. Immigration will dominate the next General Election, along with tax and spending cuts. The major parties will no longer be able to avoid the debate.
The BNP and Tories will gain from this, and Labour will lose.
The one positive about Griffin-gate is that people ARE talking about in the pubs-my local is a good cross-section of skilled/semi-skilled manual and students (its only a few hundred yards from bedsit land for Bournemouth Uni)- I’ve heard views ranging from some sympathy for Griffin to ‘the prat fell flat on his face and good!’
38. They got more than 900k in June though. Many of those will have been protest warning shots but unless those warnings are heeded, or if the issues on which they are warning become less resonant, they’ll be fired electorally in anger at a GE.
And before anyone dreams I am liberal-lefty,my own antennae have rung alarm bells at the sheer scale of Eastern European/other immigration-it IS an issue
Interesting data- sounds about right. In my town 11% of votes were for the BNP in the Euro elections- but only 27% of people voted. It wasn’t Labour voters switching to the BNP that had them gain their percentage points, the amount of BNP voters didn’t really rise, it was ex-Labour people staying at home and BNP voters going to the ballot.
39 “Immigration will dominate the next General Election, along with tax and spending cuts. The major parties will no longer be able to avoid the debate.”
And they are inextricably linked - too many people = not enough money to pay for schools/housing/hospitals for all of them.
I can hear phone-in callers asking why new arrivers should get the same help as those who’ve been here for a long time.
On a depressing note - if there is another terrorist attack, it will pour petrol on the whole thing.
I was really struck by callers to a phone-in on R5 about donation fatigue re Pakistan earthquake. It took about 10 mins for R5 to rethink the subject as most callers were saying “why should we help them, they’ve bombed Tube trains!!!!”
I think you underestsimate the ability of politicians to fail to talk about things they would prefer to ignore.
I agree there is broad concern on immigration but I don’t think that is what motivated even a fraction of that viewing figure. A third to a half of it is the core regular viewing, the rest were watching to see the great nazi bear torn to pieces by a pack of dogs. It was a modern equivalent of throwing a Roman gladiator show.
From the megapoll stuff Mike posted recently there’s quite a detailed bit on the demographics and opinions of BNP voters and a large sample size 985 unweighted. Just a cople of observations from that:
61% C2DE compared to general population 45%
12% get news from political websites compared to 3-4% for other party supporters - which probably gives us an idea of their real activist base/committed support = 0.4%
Twice as likely to have voted in EU elections to make a point about UK domestic politics than the average voter = protest vote
I wonder if there is much correlation between the supporters of the BNP and Nationalists in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland? All types of nationalism seem to have much in common, demonising an alien enemy of some description (the English in Scotland, non-white immigrants in the BNP’s case, Protestants/Catholics in Northern Ireland), and so would seem to have much in common to people who believe, or at any rate want to believe, that all their own failures are somebody else’s fault.
41. Absolutely. If the three parties do conspire again to ignore the issue at the GE, it could be calamitous. I can see the BNP getting millions of votes, as the people give vent to their utter exasperation.
We like to think it couldn’t happen in liberal Britain. But we used to pride ourselves that we had never elected Fascists. Now we have two BNP MEPs.
And remember that impeccably liberal Holland came quite close to making Pim Fortuyn its prime minister. Denmark is another interesting example - of a liberal northwest European country swinging hard right on this issue.
Immigration needs to be discussed. Now. That’s the whole point of democracy, to air grievances before they fester.
The BBC were right to put Griffin on QT, but the debate needs to continue. We can’t go back to status quo ante.
48, if Griffin met the same end as Pim Fortuyn[sp] is would be a disaster.
41 - In 2004 the BNP got 808,000 European election votes, that then declined to 192,500 in 2005. Now much of that would represent the broader reach of the party in European elections. More people have a BNP option in Euro’s than Parliament. But if we look at the other parties that have a wider reach in National elections than the BNP they also fared badly. UKIP went from 2.6m to 0.6m, the Greens from 1.1m to 0.2m and lets throw in Respect for a laugh who went fom 0.8m in the 2004 euros to less than 70k in 2005.
44 There always be the mindset of those who say ‘Why should we help the Pakistani earthquake victims,they bombed our tube trains’- most people are far more enlightened,thank Goodness!
Interesting article.
However, the seats where turnout has fallen most sharply since 1992 are safe Labour seats, so today’s BNP voters are quite possibly still ex-Labour (but haven’t voted for some time).
FPT, I think that Cameron’s initial strategy was to target GMW voters, more than any other section of the population. I think that his strategy changed after August 2007.
39 SeanT - Indeed, and as David Herdson quite rightly pointed out on the previous thread, a vote for the BNP does NOT necessarily mean that the voters buys in to the whole BNP set of policies (which are, frankly, bonkers and which they themselves hardly mention). It means sending a signal in favour of (a) controlling immigration, and (b) reining back the excesses of multi-culturalism.
I’d expect them to do relatively well at the GE in terms of total votes cast, but probably not well enough to affect the result except in a few constituencies.
On topic, very good and interesting article.
It’s not really a surprise that a party that plays the victim card itself and markets itself as an outsider will attract people who feel themselves exluded by the mainstream parties and who therefore haven’t voted in recent elections.
The comments made on the previous thread about this being both main parties fault is accurate: Labour has thrown money at part of the problem but has ignored the social and cultural attitudes in order to sure up its Guardian wing. The Tories, who at one time had a strongish working class vote, saw it undermined in the two recessions on their watch last time and are only now beginning to make inroads.
The point about BNP success being down to them putting the legwork in is accurate. Often they succeeded in areas which Labour had taken for granted and which had seen turnouts decline significantly as a result. In local elections in Bradford, which I only use as an example as I’ve got the results to hand, not only did turnout increase markedly when the BNP stood in a ward, but at their peak (in 2006) the BNP often polled the sort of total that would have won the ward in many years but didn’t because Labour were motivated to go out and work it as they hadn’t done themselves for years.
The main danger to the mainstream parties from the BNP, accurately identified in the previous threat, is if they do find a much higher quality leader. Griffen proved himself out of his depth on QT. If they were to get a Haider-like leader (as the BUF did in the thirties with a charismatic, if highly erratic, former cabinet minister), I’d expect them to start polling into double figures in the right circumstances. To get there, they need credibility and a minimum level of acceptability. At the moment they have neither; but while the issues on which they campaign remain sufficiently potent to enough voters, they’re not far off getting them.
49 - Of course the murder of Pim Fortuyn did cause some dark mirth when it was realised his assailaint had an extreme diet.
OT Guido has sent out his first regular Guy News video
http://order-order.com/humble-homes/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222796/Camerons-cuties-The-80-women-likely-MPs-Tories-new-female-friendly-party.html
would the con cuties beat the blair babes….
52 I decided to stop voting Labour in 2000. Didn’t vote again until the London Mayor’s last year.
57 - Some of them are ok looking but most are not deserving of the label ‘cutie’.
48 - Sean.
What % of the vote do you think the BNP will get at the GE?
And remember that impeccably liberal Holland came quite close to making Pim Fortuyn its prime minister.
No they didn’t.
“a staggering 65% didn’t vote for one of the big three parties last time - most of those are very likely not to have voted at all. This means that well over half of BNP voters are not disaffected Labour voters, but rather simply aren’t normally voters at all.”
A non-sequitur. The Labour vote had collapsed to 9.56 million in 2005, from 13.5 million in 1997. To conclude that someone that did not vote Labour in 2005 is “not normally” a Labour voter is absurd.
1-Comments like that don’t address the issue.
60-No they didn’t. He was murdered by a leftist.
The left kills.
How much of a traditional ‘white working class (Tory) vote’ have we got left?
What proportion has morphed downwards into ‘underclass non-vote’ or upwards into ’small-Peugeot-owning, I’m-middle-class floating vote’?
Parallels with Pim
“…Fortuyn wanted to reduce significantly the number of immigrants and asylum-seekers who arrive in the Netherlands each year, from a current 40,000 people to just 10,000 “in no time at all”.
Anti-Fortuyn campaigners confront the politician
He provoked controversy wherever he went
“This is a full country,” he said. “I think 16 million Dutchmen are about enough.”
He had a particularly strong appeal amongst the young.
Nearly one half of 18-30 year-olds recently polled want to see zero Muslim immigration, and said they would be voting for Fortuyn in May’s ballots.
Even those who did not intend to vote for him agreed the maverick leader had a certain attraction.
Analysts said Fortuyn found support among voters who would traditionally veer to the far-right, but also among those fed up with the existing political landscape and centre-left government. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1971462.stm
Conspiracy Theory Alert (apologies already):
Given that Griffin did so badly, does this give credence to the conspiracy that Griffin is an MI5 plant to give the racists a safety valve through signing up rather than starting their own vigilante mobs.
I know it’s unlikely, but mildly amusing
The misfortune for the urban WWC, concentrated in areas that have been historically poor or have experienced more recent poverty due to the decline of industry, is to have been had been joined by incomers who also voted Labour. If the incomers had been predominantly LibDem voters - or formed their own Respect-type parties - then Labour would have had to fight for WWC interests to retain their support.
But the seats just got safer. So Labour took the WWC for granted. And as the turnout in these core urban areas declined, the seats became safer for Labour - and as turnout shrank here, I suspect that disproportionately, it was the WWC that stopped voting.
I do find it ironic that we have extremely detailed planning laws that stop the homeowner from changing the colour of their front door, but there is no population planning that stops a whole section of a city changing its fundamental character. Obviously, people who come to Britain with virually no savings are going to gravitate to the poorest areas with cheapest housing - and these areas then becomes self-sustaining as more incomers join that nascent community. And as the WWC become more uncomfortable, they start to leave.
We are seeing the result of sixty years of unplanned, unstructured immigration. The speed of that has increased greatly with intra-EU population movements - with no local consultation on whether that is sustainable. Indeed, Labour were telling us the numbers of EU incomers would be tiny. They were either very badly advised - or were willfully blind to the likelihood of millions moving here. As a result, resentment has risen - now being fuelled by the unemployment and crime that comes with an economy in recession.
Johnson may be “comfortable” about 70 million folks in Britain - but he is in a very tiny minority. Those who want to show him they disagree may now have both the outlet and the motivation.
I’m not sure Labour now have the ability to sound credible on immigration measures that would address these concerns. It seems there is some substance to the idea that they were happy for immigration to rise to impose a multicultural society, regardless and without debate.
The LibDems are widely perceived to be in favour of open borders - a debate on immigration will do them no favours.
But can Cameron get across the right tone of “strict controls with compassion”? It is a fine line to travel - but probably has very wide political benefit for the Tories if he can pull it off.
64 From Mike’s table:
AB C1 C2 DE
Con 32.8 32.4 16.5 18.2
So quite a lot still.
60. Actually, tim - you’re right, and I was wrong: I just checked. The greatest success of Fortuyn’s List came AFTER his assassination, when he was a “posthumous candidate”. His party won 17% of the seats in the Dutch parliament, which is fewer than I remembered.
But nonetheless my underlying point is good. In “favourable” conditions, a far right anti immigrant party won nearly a fifth of the votes in Holland, perhaps the most liberal country in Europe. Who knows where Fortuyn might have taken them if he hadn’t been murdered.
If it can happen there, it can certainly happen here.
66 Griffin reminds me of David Shaylor so perhaps you are correct
Then again, will Griffin end up as a transvestite? A whole demographic that PBers have yet to explore
47 PSJ
No. Scottish nationalism is very similar to the kind of British nationalism that underlies Tory, Labour, LD. It’s just that you take that British nationalism so much for granted that you don’t notice it. Both Scottish and British nationalisms are “civic” nationalism. They are inclusive of everyone in the country.
The BNP version is ethnic nationalism, which thinks that there is some genetic basis on which political units should be built, and rejects those people who don’t match that genetic basis.
On Brown’s “Will I stay or will I go?” chances, consider the evidence:
1. Brown won’t want any of his colleagues to take his place as PM.
2. Brown won’t want to be defeated and blamed for Labour’s defeat at the next GE.
The solution. Brown states that he will not step down as Prime Minister at the GE. Time to pass on the mantle to the next generation, having steered the country through the worst recession in decades etc.
Labour has a leadership election in February/March 2010. The electorate know who they would be voting for as the next PM, if they vote Labour.
Brown maxes out on his time as PM without going down to electoral defeat. Simples!
66. I think Al Beeb told him it was going to be a normal Question Time and he believed them so he lowered his guard and wasn’t at all mentally prepared for the scale of the ambush they’d planned.
As a kind of political execution by media it was sort of perfect until the reaction kicked in.
69-In Denmark and Norway, also known for their liberalism ,anti-immigrant parties also score highly. And didn’t an anti-immigant party score very highly in Sweden in the early 1990s?
MM “I’m not sure Labour now have the ability to sound credible on immigration measures that would address these concerns. It seems there is some substance to the idea that they were happy for immigration to rise to impose a multicultural society, regardless and without debate.”
Without conspiracy theorising, I never understood why Labour decided not to follow what many/most other EU countries did and slowly ramp up the open movement of workers from Eastern Europe.
They threw open doors, got the estimates wrong [or wilfully hoped no one would notice] by an eye-watering factor and then pretended that it was all really a great thing and made us prosper.
No it didn’t - it just drove down wages, kept our economically inactive on the sofa and didn’t produce a positive for the economy at all when calculated on a per head basis.
Oh and now we have 2 BNP MEPs.
PS and Cf Denmark, where the far right has grown at every election for a decade, it is now the 3rd largest party in the country, with 25 seats out of 179 - and it is in a loose coalition with the government:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_People’s_Party
74-May have imagined the Sweden bit…
That link again:
http://tinyurl.com/yru5mj
And their Norwegian cousins.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_Party_(Norway)
Mike,
I really fear that the media underestimate the potential backlash they may cause with all this exposure being given to the BNP in the last week, your articles may not help the situation either!
73 I suspect you are right.
I can’t imagine they’d told him
“Hey Nick, we’re going to only ask one question that isn’t specifically about you/your beliefs/previous quotes.
And fancy coming down to West London, so you can face an audience which we’ve impartially chosen to be overwhelmingly young, liberal and from ethnic minorities?
Oh yes, and we’ve even managed to get a young Jewish kid with a skull cap to ask a question about the H - yes I know he applied to be in the audience a year ago, but luckily he was available at 24hrs notice.
Isn’t that great?”
I have said on here before a coiple of years ago that in London there is evidence that BNP take their votes largely from Laboir but in West Yorks and the East Midlands they take them disproportionally from the smallish but significant 20-30% of the WWC who isially vote Conservative .
oops couple not coiple
80-Arguably ignoring the issue and hoping it would go away put us where we are.
81. But Griffin is not stupid. He must have expected a pretty hostile audience and panel - on the BBC, in London.
I suspect he anticipated a rough ride, and probably prepared for that - but his relative inexperience at TV made it worse than it should have been.
He won’t mind now though. The general reaction has been that the BBC overdid it, and tried to publicly humiliate and degrade him, and he has thereby gained victim status.
79. And Vlams Belaang in Belgium, natch:
http://tinyurl.com/2ud45n
“the scale of the ambush they’d planned.”
I don’t think that holds water at all. QT is based on questions from the audience. Given Griffin, it’s not a surprise at all that the questions would have been mostly focused on him.
“Oh yes, and we’ve even managed to get a young Jewish kid with a skull cap to ask a question about the H - yes I know he applied to be in the audience a year ago, but luckily he was available at 24hrs notice.”
Don’t be silly-he’d have been going to this one regardless. And any self -respecting Jewish person would challenge Griffin had they got the chance.
84 I think he summed it up with the quote ‘I expected a boxing match, not a knife fight’. And yes, it can only get better for him in a perverse way.
85 The production team chose the questions to ask from the ones submitted by the audience - they turned it into the Nick Griffin Show.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5471128/the-eu-prepares-for-a-conservative-government.thtml
This is interesting.
“A number of prime ministers are unwilling to take a step that would incur the wrath of an incoming Conservative government. President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel remain supporters of Blair, but are now hesitating over backing a man with so many opponents. The Conservatives may have achieved their first diplomatic coup in Europe, even before taking office.’”
OT, Miliband minor has slipped half a point on SPIN. AJ back in front
85, 86. Whatever the BBC’s motives and techniques, as an exercise in neutering the BNP’s appeal, Question Time was a failure.
It seemed like Griffin was being bullied by a liberal elite. And this, of course, is exactly how the BNP’s potential voters feel.
They will gain votes from it. But so will the Tories. Warsi was good.
85 – David, that is an incredibly naïve thing to say, last Thursday’s QT was not the norm by any standards…Plato’s ironic post @81 is a more accurate ‘reflection’ on what people were presented with, imho of course.
“The production team chose the questions to ask from the ones submitted by the audience -”
Yes. That’s what I said. It’s based on questions from the audience to reflect what the audience want to talk about. I doubt there were many other topics raised.
“imho of course”
And of course my post is mine. I just don’t find it all that surprising that a QT with Griffin on would end up with questions all based on his nastier beliefs.
85. “I don’t think that holds water at all. QT is based on questions from the audience. Given Griffin, it’s not a surprise at all that the questions would have been mostly focused on him.”
I’m not so sure. One newspaper reported that the audience were handed crib sheets of Griffin’s quotes, to help them form their questions.
“One newspaper reported that the audience were handed crib sheets of Griffin’s quotes, to help them form their questions.”
Yes. The Mail. Sandy Rentool, a poster here, went to the recording. He didn’t mention anything like that, and none of the tw@tters giving updates from the recording did either.I’m therefore inclined to believe the Mail is lying again.
“Yes. The Mail.”
I avoid that rag, so must have picked it up elsewhere.
86 I’m afraid that the Daily Mail found the young man in question. I was very surprised myself.
“Joel Weiner, 17, who confronted Mr Griffin about Holocaust denial, said he applied to appear on the programme more than a year ago but was approached ‘out of the blue’ on Wednesday - just 24 hours before filming.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222586/The-BNP-backlash–MPs-accuse-BBC-playing-Nick-Griffins-hands-stage-managing-Question-Time-onslaught.html#ixzz0UxkvaLND
The report was mentioned on here a couple of times.
90. I agree, tories may well benefit most from the BNP question time as even some BNP leaners won’t like the fact Nick Griffin admitted denying the holocaust int he past and other slips
86 I’m afraid that the Daily Mail found the young man in question. I was very surprised myself.
“Joel Weiner, 17, who confronted Mr Griffin about H denial, said he applied to appear on the programme more than a year ago but was approached ‘out of the blue’ on Wednesday - just 24 hours before filming.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222586/The-BNP-backlash–MPs-accuse-BBC-playing-Nick-Griffins-hands-stage-managing-Question-Time-onslaught.html#ixzz0UxkvaLND
Read the crib sheet here…
http://tinyurl.com/yj73tp4
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/majornews/6422290/Boy-17-How-I-challenged-BNP-leader-Nick-Griffin-over-the-holocaust.html
The Mail is reporting the Telegraph interview, which puts a slightly different spin on it.
“Joel, an A-level student at the Jews’ Free School, in Brent, northwest London said that he had applied for a seat in the audience a year ago, before he knew that Mr Griffin was going to be on the panel.
He was contacted for interview by the BBC on Wednesday, the day before the recording. ”
I do wonder about the Mail’s agenda here.
“Read the crib sheet here…”
Having done so, it’s a far cry from what was alleged. It’s a bio of all the panelists and looks like something fairly standard, rather than something specific for just this programme.
I think SeanT is right on this. I watched the QT with a friend, who had just flown in from the US, an educated well rounded type who has suffered from abuse from white supremacists in the past. She had no idea who Nick Griffin or any of the other panelists were.
She asked why they were attacking the Griffin guy even before he said anything. I explained who he is was, what the show was etc etc etc. But, after watching it, she basically echoed what SeanT said, which was the Griffin guy seems to be get bullied by the panel, including that guy (Dimblebot!) next to him, and the audience (which she remarked the questions seemed to come overwhelmingly non-white / non-Christian). She actually said at the end, “all that was missing was a black lesbian jew in a wheel-chair to round it off”.
Agreed. Follow the page linked down and there is discussion about alternative versions.
99. So the “crib sheet” gives a potted biography of all the panelists and presumably as a feature in every programme.
Of course, the account it gives of Griffin is not too flattering, but what else should they have said?
Anyway, the idea that the audience was only hostile because the BBC put them up to it is just silly. Far away from any “liberal metropolitan elite” the BNP is widely and routinely despised.
Test
Is it me, or is one of my posts appearing and disappearing?
102 Here’s the jpg from the BBC
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/10/23/article-1222586-06F13A88000005DC-789_468×253.jpg
WTF, my comments have gone into moderation, nothing naughty in there!
105 - Yes, mine has just done that.
94- that was the Daily Mail - I linked to it yesterday I think.
They also claimed that the audience was urged t oheckle / boo him.
Cant find the link on their web site though (It was a Daily Mail comment piece)
105 I thought I was imagining things about your post.
*checks wine left in bottle*
It would seem that the version handed to the audience encouraged them to ask questions which were ’short, sharp and provocative’, with the latter word being underlined.
Where have the BNP votes come from?
New Labour’s sound handling of the ecomony and other well thought-out policies!
The full Mail story…
http://tinyurl.com/yfc2l8t
105 I can’t see the difference between that passage on Griffin and the one linked on the BBC. And it seems a fair enough reflection of his career.
109 Audience member Ellen Mellington, a 29-year-old project manager from South London, said members of the production team told her they wanted provocative questions.
‘It seemed like they were trying to whip up a bit of a frenzy in the studio. What surprised me most was when David Dimbleby came in before the taping and started to speak to the audience. He told us it was OK to boo, which I didn’t quite agree with. I don’t think you should boo at people.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222586/The-BNP-backlash–MPs-accuse-BBC-playing-Nick-Griffins-hands-stage-managing-Question-Time-onslaught.html#ixzz0UxpOshPB
108. Regarding the instruction to boo, my guess is that the audience were told that they should feel free to applaud or boo any answer as they chose, and that would be fair enough. That’s very different from Dimbleby saying “And when that fascist b*stard comes on you boo like crazy. Egg-throwers in the front two rows please, we don’t want any accidents”, which is how the Mail is making it sound.
But I wasn’t there. I’m just extremely sceptical of anything printed in that paper.
85 - Not so much naive as wrong really. In theory Question Time, which I have never attended and Any Questions which I have are based on “questions from the audience”. But, just think about it. Hundreds in the audience, 200 + I guess, most putting in a question. So, for Any Questions about 8 or 9 out of say 150. For Question Time fewer questions than that. Who picks the questions, the producers and what is more they re-write them for the questioner to ask.
102-Though apparently not by a significant minority if we are to believe the 22% story.
“It would seem that the version handed to the audience encouraged them to ask questions which were ’short, sharp and provocative’, with the latter word being underlined.”
It’s underlined in the one on the BBC link too. And seems like any QT if you ask me.
Ferguson hahahahahahahaha!
I know 2 people who have voted BNP in the past (last in 2005 i think, possibly local elections before that) . Both are in other ways Tories ; both living in one of the Northern racially segregated towns. think they have got it out of their system now though.
60 It would depend how many candidates they fielded. Were they to field 200 candidates, I’d expect about 2,500 per candidate, on average.
115 Quite.
As I said, we have a poster here who was there, and didn’t indicate anything “untoward”. I’d prefer to go by him rather than a paper like the Mail.
Of course, if he confirms the Mail story, I will accept that too.
Found it
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1222623/BBC-trial-taught-nothing.html
122-Hahaha! “Untoward”- something I guess that varies from person to person.
I am pretty sure what I consider untoward is not what everyone does, and vise versa.
114 - Perhaps the audience should have had 20% H Deniers in it?
The shocking thing was not that a H denier and Nazi was asked about his H Denial, but that he couldn’t answer the question, made a fool of himself trying before sweating and twitching.
He’s had a decade to prepare for these questions yet showed himself to be inept, as BNP members are recognising.
From the sample of three past or present BNP voters I know, one previously said he was Labour, but didn’t vote, one supported Labour, SWP and then the BNP, before switching to UKIP, the third went Tory, BNP, UKIP. I don’t know what conclusion can be reached from that… I have a hunch that the party most able to take dissafected WWC votes from the BNP is UKIP but I have no actual evidence to back that up.
While out campaigning for a local by election earlier this year the only people who seemed enthusiastic were the BNP voters. The rest where either undecided or ashamed of whichever party they supported. BNP supporters were very happy to talk politics and proud to support the party. I met a group of tracksuit clad lads in their mid teens who were friendly enough, we got chatting and they said they couldn’t vote yet but they looked forward to being able to vote BNP. They used a phrase I have heard time and again from their supporters and even from people who won’t vote for them “They are the only party that sticks up for us.”
We also have to consider Dimblebore’s chairing of that particular show. He’s never much good, but he definitely came across as having an agenda this week.
IMHO it was the sum of the parts that resulted in the show we got.
Oh dear - Bonnie Greer gets a mauling in the comments on her knowledge of Romans and other things.
I had no idea who she was - and her biog as a Depty thingy at the BM fooled me into thinking she was an academic.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6888062.ece
FPT, URW, stick me in with Roger on 10%. I will keep him and his latest political prediction company. I now realise that my predication is doomed to failure.
128 - David, the Mail took their story from a Times interview.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6888256.ece#comment-have-your-say
The BBC also specifically put some BNP supporters in the audience as well, I’d have thought.
134 - “she was an academic” Ms Greer writes plays, mainly for BBC Radio…! She once appeared on stage as Joan of Arc, which probably means she is more qualified to be a Saint rather than academic.
131 “He’s had a decade to prepare for these questions yet showed himself to be inept, as BNP members are recognising.”
Would you provide evidence for this? Do you have a lot of BNP friends who share their views with you?
It sounds more like ConHome trollers saying Cameron should be replaced as he’s only 17 points ahead and they should be doing better.
133
I dont agree, when I have watched QT in the past, admittedly not often of late, Dimbleby often challlenges people from all parties when the panel are too stupid not to. Hypocrisy and untruths seem to be his favourits, and rightly so. He maybe a Lib Dem, but he doesnt wear his sandals in public.
What chance Gordon Brown leads Labour at next GE ?
The Oncoming Storm 100%
TimT 95%
Morris Dancer 95%
madasafish 95%
JackW 90%
tpkfar 90%
Maggie Thatcher Fan 90%
TC 85%
NU 85%
MichaelK 85%
stjohn 83%
Maradona* 81%
antifrank 80%
Johnno 80%
malcolmG 80%
Goupillon 80%
Marquee Mark 80%
Plato 80%
SeanT 80%
Richard Nabavi 80%
David Herdson 79%
Barnesian 75%
Ted 75%
Gareth of Reading 70%
URW 68%
James Burdett 67%
King Peladon of Peladon 65%
Aaron 65%
tim 55%
weathercock 40% !
Peter the Punter 48%
Henry G.Manson 25%
Mike Smithson 25%
Constan Treader 25%
Roger 10%
ChristinaD 10%
Joe Average 75%…smiley face
Feel free to add your predictions.
137 If only Griffin had known! He could have made a quip about burning her on a cross for added KKK voter appeal
140- I’ll go with 85%, I just can’t see why he’d chose go or who would make him.
138 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/25/nick-griffin-question-time-bnp
As a public postmortem into one of the most divisive broadcasts in the corporation’s history attempted to gauge its impact on the party’s fortunes, Lee Barnes, the BNP’s legal officer, accused Griffin of “failing to press the attack” during the televised debate, which was watched by a record 8 million people. Others sympathetic to the BNP’s views expressed dismay at Griffin’s flustered attempts to appeal to the mainstream.
Did you source the claims you posted on here yesterday or were they BNP propaganda?
I do wonder if we are all in danger of losing the point. We have an interesting conundrum here. Mr Griffin is not the most effective fringe politician around at direct personal communication. But, BNP leaflets and use of the web are often considered to be almost state of the art. UKIP leaders by contrast tend to be fairly articulate but their leaflets are unbelievably bad.
In the short term Nick Griffith is going to be around - to dump him before the election would be like Labour dumping Brown. But, after the election his tenure, like Brown’s and Clegg’s is going to be somewhat short.
I can’t really work myself into a frenzy of fear over Griffith. But regrettably I imagine there might be others who are more articulate and that does worry me rather more.
140 Ave it says 40%!!!
140 URW - I will hazard a guess.
50% chance he stays I think.
141 - Plato, I was going to write “which means she is more qualified to be a Jacket Potato rather than an academic.
But thought I’d better not.
BNP votes are coming from this sort of thing
http://www.sundaymercury.net/news/midlands-news/2009/10/25/birmingham-terrorist-beheading-plotters-freed-early-from-jail-66331-25006585/
Sorry if someone else has already posted this.
144 - The group who want to replace Griffin are generally less articulate (!) and more violent(!).
‘Glasgow North East: a vanity contest?’
The UK Polling Report guide says Glasgow North East is one of the “most degraded, deprived and crime-ridden parts” of the country. Come here and you are left supposing it was just being diplomatic…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6889097.ece
URW are you lisdtening to the Fulham game at MAn City. we were 2-0 down, now in the space of a couple of minutes its 2-2
122. According to Ted in the previous thread the 22% is made up of those who would “definitely”, “probably” and “possibly” consider voting for the party. About 2/3 of the total was for “possibly” which is the weakest of the three options - if you ask someone for a date and they say they’ll “possibly consider” it, you wouldn’t fancy your chances. Even “probably consider” is pretty doubtful.
Imo the total “seriously consider” total should be made of the definites only, of which there were 3 or 4%, so a little higher than the actual voting intention score for the BNP in recent polls.
Still, I grant that the 22% probably don’t *despise* the BNP, which was the word I used. The remaining 78% of the population are another matter.
Man City season over if they dont come back to win!!!!!
Title will be Chelsea’s nailed on!
143
I posted what I’d been told or received by people I know - and felt it was perfectly acceptable to share their concerns with others here as a ‘temperature check’ on the issue of the BNP traction with fairly ordinary voters.
If you want to continue to imply that I am a closet BNP sympathiser or advocate - feel free. Just remember that I voted Labour in the last three election
This is teh interweb and you are I believe a successful landowning farmer, school big-wig, expert on the EU micro political parties, NHS Swine Flu preparations, history of the Waffen SS…
153- you forget your place Plato! Free speech is only for those who agree with the left.
140. 75%
MTF.Yes I’m listenting on 5extra.
Betfair - Party Seats Line
Con 355 - 366
Lab 203 - 208
LD 50.5 - 52
SNP 13 - 14
PC 4.5 - 5.5
DUP 6.5 - 8.5
151 I’d disagree on that one - if someone said to me ‘would you consider voting BNP?’ They’d get a ‘never’ answer from me.
I think that there are so many people who would even *consider* it is quite astonishing.
I thought maybe 10-15% at the outside…
140 Brown is like bad weather; after a week of it you think the sun will never shine again and probably never really shone in the past except in Disney fantasies. Then you wake up one morning and the clouds have gone, just like that.
I see that comrade miliband d told the filthy trotskyite running dogs of the bbc this morning that he had no ambition to be eu foreign sec and endorsed blair as president. Why would he say that? because comrade mandelson has promised him comrade brown’s head on a platter in exchange. The end is nigh.
153 - If you could do that without posting fabricated BNP propaganda then please try in the future.
159 plato bnp?!
tim = spanner de luxe!!!!!!!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA tim = vidic
Ah, caught out by YouTube…
Quizzed on Question Time about claims he had once joked that black people ‘walked like monkeys’, Nick Griffin was adamant that the slur was an ‘outrageous lie’.
But in this new video, posted online today, the BNP leader can be seen chuckling at the memory of a conversation in which a friend of his claims just that.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222682/Nick-Griffin-Video-proves-BNP-leader-joked-black-people-walking-like-monkeys.html?ITO=1490#ixzz0Uxz14MQ2
Who are voting for the BNP now? I can tell you:
1. The huge underclass, mainly white but with a smattering of ethnics.
2. The disgruntled and put upon white working class, who themselves at the bottom of the pyramid.
3. A fair proportion of the working lower middle class who feel squeezed between immigrants settled and immigrants arriving.
I am not saying that a majority of the above will vote for the BNP, but a fair amount will.
I have even heard BNP being discussed in some of Londons most respected places, and not with opprobium either.
That is why I’m almost certain that the smaller parties will have a bigger effect on the outcome of the coming GE than the media and political elite anticipate.
140. Add me to the list! 80%
148 - In which case, GAME OVER for the next ten years at least as far as the BNP are concerned.
140 - Must be greater than 85% chance of Brown remaining. Most scenarios for his demise would precipitate the election per se.
159
Yes Mr Interweb Sir, anything you say Mister.
Good grief.
158. Oh, I agree that it’s disquieting that the number is so high. What I was getting at is that in some quarters (not so much on PB, which is a poll-literate audience) the 22% is being thrown around almost as though it were a voting intention figure.
I think the real news over the last few days was the Q3 growth figure. That will impact our immediate political future far more than Nick Griffin and his agenda. But I suspect we all secretly like talking about the BNP because we all (self included) like to get on our own particular high horse and it’s the perfect topic for that.
BNP voters are imo un-likely to conceed that they voted Labour in 2005.
is this cat bnp?!
http://imeleon.com/photo/82/blue-eyed_kitty.jpg
The BNP could probably pick up another 5-10% in the polls if they didn’t seem so tacky. A few quid spent rebranding the party with new logos, and less weirdos in positions of power, and they could probably overtake UKIP.
Luckily, this won’t happen, so they’ll forever have the smell of cheap photocopied pamphlets and hand drawn posters.
re 140 78%. Labour have wasted too many chances to be rid of Brown now IMHO.
168. Ace it ‘09.
You voted 40% that Brown stayes on.
So did I. SNAP!
I’ve got a feeling we’re in for a tabloid swine flu frenzy to replace Griffin in the tabloids
168
I have a little one here just like that!
OMG!!
I’m A BNP BREEDER OF ARY1AN KITTENS!!!
I’VE BEEN EXPOSED!!
SHOW TRIAL FOR ME! [luckily I've always quite fancied David Dimbleby, so perhaps I can make a cheeky last request
]
171 you like me are a great mind
173 hahahahahahaha!!!! tim = lol
173. Plato October 25th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Just don’t teach them the salute
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/dogs-nazi-salute-lands-owner-in-jail-for-five-months-766438.html
URW Its still going on on 5 live but my friend called me say its all over at 2-2 and West Ham are 0-2 down
176 Great result for Fulham. Hodgson 10/10
176
Re. West Ham
I think we’ll end up being relegated I think
160 - I have seen tim use this tactic before - nothing stings him more than someone moving on from the Labour darkside so he feels he needs to (try to) demolish their credibility.
Even Labour supporters off message get a verbal kicking from tim, not just on here eh tim
Either thats his tactic, or he is just plain nasty - you decide
140-100% he stays.
168. Nick Griffin kitty
http://tinyurl.com/22qwfl
175-Another one of our democratic European partners.
Had the dog been exhibiting the red clenched fist salute it would have been more than adequate to throw away the key…
140. 20%
–mobilised a new part of the electorate–? yes the vicious racist paty of the electorate.
FPT
“Just one highly technical issue that maybe somebody familiar with Labour’s rule book could advise upon. My understanding is that for a new leader of the Labour Party, one third of the votes must be allocated to MP’s.”
Interesting to ponder the fact that the number of labour MPs will be much reduced after the election - indeed some possinble candidates and/or cheerleaders for candidates might not be there.
So 33% of the vote wll go to a very small part of the electoral college.
One wonders if this will have an effect on a decision to try to remove Brown?
“Labour has a leadership election in February/March 2010. The electorate know who they would be voting for as the next PM, if they vote Labour.” The election will be in May. Whoever wins a leadership contest in March will then become PM. So Brown will thus stand down before the election unlike what you seem to imply.
178 see you at vicarage road next year!
In the latest instalment in the Nick Griffin fest
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/6431159/Nick-Griffins-mother-in-law-says-the-BNP-leader-is-a-racist.html
looks like the Telegraph lifted this from the Mirror.
OMG we are all doomed!!!
gordo says we have 50 days (less now) to save the world , but….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/6425372/Climate-targets-cant-be-achieved-say-energy-companies.html
Energy companies have privately warned the Government that its climate change targets are “illusory” and “delusional”
Regarding sundry immigration comments. The elephant in the room for the Conservatives on this issue is the fact that any citizen of the EU is entitled to migrate to any country of the EU to seek work.
This cannot be addressed without recourse to our whole relationship with the EU, and is consequently something on which Cameron wants to keep the lid closed firmly.
175
Its like the one posted yesterday about setting fire to a g0llyw0g.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/479628/BNP-film-in-probe-BNP.html
Personally, I think insulting police horses as gay is more offensive as at least they are sentient.
Thankfully, my neighbours in Lewes are equal opportunity burners
“In addition to the perennial Catholic hate figures, Lewes’ Bonfire Boys have burned tableaux of Hitler, Idi Amin, Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, Osama bin Laden, Bill Clinton and George Bush.”
http://www.daeschner.com/pope_trivia.html
Arsenal 2 up at West Ham.
149. SD
Could you or Easterross or any of the other Scottish commenters say how Glasgow NE and Glasgow E compare to the setting of the Scottish sitcom ‘Still Game’?
Will BNP claim that this cat supports them?
http://api.ning.com/files/kiLLRXbNgj-TYzJNMyNrhiNckyVkJplXwMd3CTxigm4FHDzVFt2oKOXu6tYtmpfa2MbXK9I0VKey-sFJBM0QpYxBvVI0Q1iU/BlackKitten.JPG?width=359&height=427
189 west ham =
187 Well, with our economy in the S bend for several years to come, I think he’s quite safe
Pats 7-0.Merryweather interception.
191 Nah, a mew lightweight - these are their type of kitties
http://www.catsthatlooklikehitler.com/cgi-bin/seigmiaow.pl
187. Tabman October 25th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
“any citizen of the EU is entitled to migrate to any country of the EU to seek work”
And that cuts both ways. I’ve benefited a lot from being able to work in other EU countries.
EJ4BW!
194 Nick Griffin’s cat
195 - exactly. I would imagine that there are not a few people who would lose out were that right withdrawn.
190 another richard
Still Game is mainly filmed in Maryhill, which is to the west of Springburn.
Afternoon all and after flogging the subject to death over several days have we all come to the conclusion that:
1) Nick Griffiths- a problem first created in America
2) BNP and UKIP-nasty plot hatched by Margaret Thatcher in 1985
190 Since you ask, Still Game is set in a fictional area but I would say an area like Springburn with several blocks of multi storey flats like the infamous Red Road once the highest blocks in the country at 33 storeys would be pretty good as a role model for the show.
198 I often wondered Oldnat where they film it. Lots of people in Glasgow can identify a Jack and Victor within their acquaintences as well as the wee wifie with the specs, Nazim the corner shop owner and the dodgy character owning the pub.
196 Arnold Leese trained his cat to give the Nazi salute, so we should expect the same of Nick Griffin’s cat.
187. EU immigration is becoming less of a concern as the new members are having their domestic living standards raised to the point where it’s less of a gap between us and them. The other countries which may join in the near future are either already wealthy (Iceland, Norway) or quite small in population (Croatia, the rest of former Yugoslavia). I don’t think this issue will get as explosive again unless Turkey or Ukraine joins.
199 easterross
What’s with all this demonising of the Welsh? You and others calling him Griffths!
194/6
201 Sean Fear. Re Bristol East. Is there not a chance given their relatively strong showing in Bristol against the rest of the South west this year and the utter safety of Bristol West thanks to boundary changes that the Lib Dems might have sufficient strength and resources to be in contention for the seat?
202 easterross
My wife (who is Glaswegian) says the shops they film are in Townhead - which would put them either in Central or NE.
Getting rid of SNP voters in Edinburgh.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8325010.stm?ls
OMG! Just what depths NuLabour will go to.
354.FPT.”351. Oops, fell foul of HTML there. I’ll try again.
Those assigning odds on Gordo going should be careful of conflating 2 separate questions.
Chance of the the PLP binning Gordo before the election. Less than 20%
Chance of Gordo bottling an election he knows he can’t win. Greater than 80%
Scott P October 25th, 2009 at 12:17 pm”
My post of the day. ScottP hits the nail on the head. My prediction is based on the latter question not the former. I think that Brown will go rather than be pushed.
1979-2009 Four PM’s, and only three of them have fought a leadership contest and won, Major also did so again during his premiership.
Two PM’s won 3 GE’s apiece, but despite the manner of their departures, neither lost a GE.
John Major had a genuine fight on his hands when he fought that 92′ GE and won it with a small majority. He carried on till the bitter end and resigned after the 97 GE defeat.
Gordon Brown walked away from a real leadership contest when John Smith died because he knew he would lose it. No attempt to gain further experience for the next time. He sought a coranation rather than leadership contest after Blair was forced to announce he was going. He bottled the Autumn GE because he lacked the courage to go through with it when it was not a nailed on victory like the previous three. Echo’s of not wanting to be associated with a win that might have seen Labour’s majority drop with Brown compared unfavourable to Blair and his last result.
Now Brown faces two options, only one inescapable, he will be the shortest serving PM in over 30 years. Some people think he will cling onto the door of No10 and have to be prised away because he has plotted and dreamed of this job for so long. I think they are wrong. He has time and again showed a complete lack of political courage throughout his career, and the most incredibly stubborn refusal to take responsibility for a mistakes.
And yet some still reckon he will then determinedly hang around to be crowned not only the shortest serving PM, but also become the only PM in 30 years that didn’t win a GE. And that is before we start to tackle Brown’s Labour legacy in this up coming GE. Why the hell would a man who hates losing hang around for all that bad news?
204 Well done on breaking Roy Keane’s heart. Priceless.
205 Boundary changes have been pretty good for the Conservatives in Bristol East (and in the Bristol area generally) so I think that it’s unlikely.
OT Interesting piece on the mess in the US senate over the health care reform bills. Clearly not plain sailing ahead for the bill.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/10/25/harry_reids_train_wreck_98866.html
206 I didnt think there was enough left of Townhead. My school was there so reluctantly I spent 6 years getting to know the locals. Most of the area has been demolished to make way for the ever expanding STrthclyde and Caledonian Universities. I am not sure which of the 2 constituencies it falls within. In the old days it was Central
212 is that aimed at me, if so TY!
Can you remind me who you support?
Devils Kitchen has also posted on that Telegraph article
http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/
Scroll down to “burying culture”
He refers also to a speach by Sean Gabb (??)who said he thought Labour’s real aim was:
“The purpose of the Government that took power in 1997 was to bring about a revolutionary transformation of this country—a transformation from which there could be no return to what had been before.”
Devil then closes his comments in his own style
“That summation is beginning to look more and more plausible.
F*cking hellski.”
210 hope malcolmg wasnt in one of those!!!!
216 Anyone who denies Roy victory.
219 ok i think he’s quite sweet really
are you alf-inge haaland?!
OT
great day for scousers but Arsenal are unstoppable now.
cant wait for charmless Ferguson to blame the ref.
221 - When is he going to retire?
221 IMHO (and I am biased), the best result was Fulham’s ending Man City’s home record, and coming back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2. Not many teams could do that.
205. Punter
The Conservatives led in Bristol East in this year’s local elections.
Bristol South might have some LibDem effort in it though it’s hard to say as there wasn’t any elections there this year.
oldnat & Easterross
Thanks.
Does that mean that Still Game would now be in Glasgow North constituency?
222
When his whiskey-nose explodes in a cloud of fury cos Man City have more money to spend than him.
Went o QT in Leeds once. They encourage the heckling etc in order to create a ‘public meeting’ atmosphere. Mistake on this occasion.
They ask you a few questions on the phone to make sure you can string a sentence together. A bit more work to exclude the angry mob might have been a worthwhile exercise on this occasion.
As for ringing previous contacts up, that is quite normal. I bumped into a guy I know when I went. He was a declared Labour man. He was rung up a year or so later asking if he could make the show again. He declined. They asked him if he could give them the name of any Tory supporters. Being a solid Labour man, the so-and-so said no.
223
Agreed, grt result, Woy is a good coach.
222 After Gordon but before Cameron
224 Not sure because Glasgow Central is the strangest shaped constituency
224 What is the situation in Bristol South?
217 Elby in DK’s comments points out that no-one has denied Neather’s column as fact.
211. ChristinaD October 25th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
There’s a difference between this situation and anything else Brown has confronted.
At every stage up to now he’s been able to duck an immediate confrontation while still keeping open the possibility of winning the big prize - becoming Prime Minister. This time, if he backs out, there’s no coming back, no second chance. The only way he can remain PM is to fight the election and achieve at least a hung parliament.
I’m not sure that his past form tells us how he’ll react when the choice is whether to pursue an outside chance of remaining in power or to give up and accept permanent, irrevocable defeat.
230 lab hold?
224 It’s really a pastiche of any scheme on the north side of the city. The studios are in Maryhill - which probably determines the choice of location shots.
230. Punter
The LibDems are in second position in Bristol South and its unlikely to have much of a Conservative campaign.
Don’t know how local elections have been there though recently.
230. Punter
The LibDems are in second position in Bristol South and its unlikely to have much of a Conservative campaign.
Don’t know how local elections have been there though recently.
175 Plato! This is extremely worrying in one apparently sound of mind. Fancied David Dimbleby??????? But… but… !
Arsenal. West Ham 2-2
arsenal season over…
239 Ave it, not everyones season can be over…..
239
terrible ref,useless.
240 it is for portsmouth
237 I have a thing for older men [but only when they were presenting Election 87
]
Tabman - Perhaps The single European Act was part of a deliberate plan to flood Britain with Immigrants by Margaret Thatcher.
All wee need is the smoking gun.
Its a conspiracy.
With a flurry of recent strikes and a Labour government in a very weak position does anyone have thoughts on the possibility of the public sector unions pushing hard for pay raises this winter.
Just as in 1979 they may feel it a good time to get pay rises agreed before the election.
If so then do we get winter of discontent mark II?
191. When Ian Paisley praised the Lewes bonfire societies for still burning effigies of The Pope, their reply was to burn a larger than life image of Big Ian the following year.
If so then do we get winter of discontent mark II?
by another richard October 25th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
That’s the headline in the Sunday Times.
It is one of the factors that makes a change of leadership less likely IMHO.
238. 2-2
Yay we got a point!
245 Re Seats the Tories might well win but have never held. Not sure it counts as they did win in 1880 but try the Gower.
SallyC
I saw the headline but the ST article missed the firefighters strike in South Yorkshire.
With Labour dependent on union money and spending cuts certain after the election I wonder if the unions will try and get a bigger slice of the cake beforehand.
148 This a post by Allison that I didn’t see before [am going blind or was in moderation - probably the former]
I’m appalled.
http://www.sundaymercury.net/news/midlands-news/2009/10/25/birmingham-terrorist-beheading-plotters-freed-early-from-jail-66331-25006585/
“…Elasmar, 46, was jailed for three years and four months last February after pleading guilty to assisting the terror cell. He was freed after serving just FIVE months and is now living on housing benefits in a flat near to Edgbaston Cricket Ground.
Despite his terror conviction, the Morocco-born extremist has not been deported as he has British National status gained when he married his English ex-wife.
During the gang’s trial the court heard how two weeks prior to their arrest they met at Elasmar’s council flat to plot the release of video footage of the planned execution to a terrorist website.
And a security services bug installed in Khan’s home had recorded him telling Elasmar that he intended to parade the dead soldier’s head on a pole.
Khan said: “We give the judgment… we’ll then cut it off like you cut a pig, man.”….
244 No tim, you miss Mrs Thatcher’s dastardly intent, it was a plan to flood France, Spain & Italy with British second home owners and timeshare salesmen and Germany with Northern builders so upsetting them that all plans for further integration and open borders were suspended… unfortunately before that cunning plan could be fully implemented the Lady was toppled by the Lithuanians in her Cabinet who foresaw that the Baltic States would join and need jobs in the richer EU countries.
The Lithuanian Gang delayed the second home/timeshare invasion by setting up a deep recession that put those back a decade, by which time their Baltic settlement plans were in fruition……
re 211 in fact both Brown and Callaghan be the only Labour PMs never to have won an election, but at least Callaghan was elected to the office?
249. Punter
In my book elections before 1945 don’t count for ’seats never before won’ purposes.
214 - There will still be some form of healthcare bill passed, the support of Olympia Snowe will help guarantee that. However Harry Reid has again proved a disaster as Senate Leader (Pelosi is much more effective in the House) and if he lost his seat in 2010 if I were a Democrat I wouldn’t be shedding too many tears!
251. plato
It’s known as being ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’.
I expect tim will accuse you again of reporting BNP propaganda.
247 Surely the difference in industrial unrest is that the public sector is smaller - no BA, BT, NCB…
The local [same bin men/grave diggers]/central gov payroll and emergency services like Fire, Health and Police have the whip hand these days.
Less mass but more acute I’d say.
253 If Gordon went before an election he would join Neville Chamberlain as the only PM never to have faced the electorate since universal suffrage. There have been other PMs who’s ministries haven’t faced an election but most subsequently or formerly had won one ( for example Churchill’s first ministry 1940-45 fell when the Coalition broke up and it was his second that then faced the election and lost).
At least if Gordon stays and loses he would be bracketed with Sir Alec & Sunny Jim not Chamberlain.
New Thread!!!
257. plato
Health, education, civil service, local government, firefighters, postmen, air traffic controllers
Plenty there to cause strikes.
I get the idea that if one union goes on strike it might escalate.
255 I was reading about Harry Reid in the Economist. It’s surprising that someone with such an interesting life-story should be so ineffectual. I suppose he’s just been promoted beyond his capabilities, and so performs below them.
249 The problem is that there’s hardly a seat that the Conservatives have *never* held, even if you have to go back to the days when the seat in question had ten voters, all of whom were well paid for their votes. I think your starting point has to be 1918, when universal suffrage came in. Even then, you run into the problem of the 1931 election, when Conservatives won all sorts of odd places. And do you include National Liberals and National Labour in the Conservative camp, for this purpose?
The likeliest Conservative victory, in a seat they have never held since universal suffrage, IMHO, is Poplar & Limehouse. They have a good chance in Dagenham & Rainham, as well.
47. What absolute rubbish to try and compare the SNP with the BNP, best I can say is that you are not right in the head. Ypu obviously have no knowledge whatsoever regarding the SNP. Stick to subjects you know something about.
231 - I hadn’t read the comments, but now you mention it ….
251 - that’s appaling
I also found this in the Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6427369/Islamists-who-want-to-destroy-the-state-get-100000-funding.html
Members of a group regarded as an ‘organisation of concern’ by the Home Office has secured large government grants for schools , reports Andrew Gilligan.
Accounts filed at the Charity Commission show that the Government paid a total of £113,411 last year to a foundation run by senior members and activists of Hizb ut-Tahrir — a notorious Islamic extremist group that ministers promised to ban.
What on earth are Labour thinking of?
Also note - Labour promised to ban Hizb quite a while ago, wonder when they will get round to it……
261 That looks a pretty good 5/4 shot to me, SeanF.
Thanks.
The people I know who voted BNP in the Europeans were three of my son’s friends who did it “for a laugh” because they had never voted before and didn’t know enough about the other parties to decide. None of them intend to do it again now they see the consequences.
I ran several pro BNP supporters’ posts on the BBC “have your say” website through a language analyser program and the average writing age was 12.7 years. The average for a sample of the rest was 16.4 years.
This suggests that the BNP draws much of its support from poorly educated, (probably) disadvantaged white voters, many of whom will either not normally vote or not understand the issues in much detail. A few of these will be ex working class Tories or Liberals, but I suspect Labour have got more to fear. I doubt if the BNP will win any seats in the General, but they may help the Lib Dems and Tories to take Labour seats.
What are the odds on the BNP getting an MP, anyone? I heard they had been cut from 10-1 to 7-2
Peter, you are making the same mistake as Iian Dale did. I don’t doubt that a majority of the BNP’s voters come from former Labour voters. What I was saying was that they had switched to the BNP rather than the Tories because of a lack of effective opposition by the Tories over the last 12 years. I actually think Cameron has resurrected the Tory appeal to a certain extent, but with an appeal to Labour’s middle-England voters, not to the traditional working class Labour vote. I think there move to the BNP is because all of the mainsteam parties have ignored them.
A lot of people who vote for the BNP are like me.
I am 64, so I have witnessed the changes in my country.
I am not racist, but there has been too much input from foreign influence ie europe,
The BNP to me is the only party who offer a serious, meaningful, policy on this.
I feel some of the younger supporters support them for racial reasons,
but look at the mess this country is in with uncontrolled immigration.
I feel it is that that’s done it.