At precisely this stage before ‘97 Blair’s lead was just 13%
November 1st, 2009
How Gord would kill for 34% shares today!
One of the challenges with trying to work out whether a Tory victory is a foregone conclusion is that the only modern parallel is Labour’s run up to the Tony Blair landslide in May 1997 - something that’s made much harder by big changes in polling practice and the fact that the only firm doing it now almost exactly as it was doing it then is ICM.
Featured above are the main findings from the November poll for the Guardian in 1996 where the fieldwork took place on the first and second of that month twelve years ago - and just compare them with today’s Sunday Telegraph survey from the same pollster which has C42-L25-LD21.
The big contrast between John Major’s Tories in 1996/7 and Gordon Brown’s Labour today is how badly the governing party is currently doing - the mid 20s as against the low to mid 30s for Major.
As it turned out ICM’s November 1996 poll got the gap precisely right but compared with what actually happened both the Tory and Labour shares were inflated by three points.
The following month in 1996 Blair’s Labour opened up a 19 point gap - the highest it was to reach in a Guardian ICM poll in the run-up to election day. This is the series of surveys from that period.
We hear repeatedly - my fellow Burnley fan Alistair Campbell was the latest - that the Tories are not performing anything like as well as Labour were at the same stage. There is an element of truth in that but there is no parallel in a comparable poll from the period to Labour’s dire current position in the mid-20s.
You get the feeling that just like 96/97 voters have made their minds up. They might not like the Tories but they just want the election to happen so they can boot Brown out. Truly it is said that government’s lose elections rather than oppositions win them.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Premier Class.
Can someone tell us from Baxter, what the difference in seats is - between 47%-34% and 42%-29%? The effect of a much higher winning percentage would ,intuitively, be significant.
These ICM polls were different to some of the other pollsters who had Labour well above 50% a lot of the time in the run-up to the 1997 election.
Presumably, necessary to make some sensible assumptions about where the 10% for “others” goes to.
re 3. The other pollsters from that period are not to be relied upon. Gallup no longer does UK political polling and MORI has made huge changes to its approach since that time. You can only compare like with like.
I say repeatedly that the only valid comparisons are with ICM.
I got the impression that by late ‘96 people were starting to get over their loathing of the Tories. An election in ‘95 I think could have lead to a Conservative parliamentary party of <100 seats. Don’t get a similar impression that people are starting to forgive Labour, so I think their polling shares are more likely to get significantly worse than significantly better over the next few months.
On the other hand, Labour has a bedrock of support from the payroll vote - the voters who live of state largesse, such as the public sector consultants, quangocrats and welfare dependents that the Tories don’t have, who must fear the Conservatives since Osborne’s speech - those that can read a newspaper or turn on a TV anyway. Which is why I’ve never thought they were likely to poll below the LDs for example.
47% then Mike. That’s an important difference. The Conservative level of support is not as effusive as it should be. The Labour vote will harden next year, so the Tories need to be much higher than c.41-42%.
Its getting to the stage where we need the maximum legal number of days it can be before polling day with each poll. Its that number that seems more signifigant than the grim headline figures. Brown is just running out of time.
We are nearly out of known unknowns ( 4 ? PBR, Quuens Speech, Budget, Technical end of Recession) so Brown is relying on unknown unkowns or trying to create them. Ergo the talk about debates.
I suppose the ultimate unkown unkown would be a leadership change but do track down the classy interview with Kim Campbell, former Candadian PM on the topic. It was part of the WTWE just before the Labour conference.
2
The first Implies the LD’s on 12 and the second LD on 18.
I put these into Electoral Calculus and it suggests a majority of 110 and 70 respectively.
2 Oh and heres the link for you to play about with yourself.
Down the left hand side.. make your prediction..
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
7 Why will the Labour vote harden next year ? The polls above don’t show the governing party vote hardening, what they show is a point or two gain for the Lib Dems and others, mainly at expense of the main contender not the party in power.
We’ve seen in polls over last year that Conservative lead has often been a function of changes in Lib Dem v Labour shares rather than much from drop in their share.
Retro: That was a brilliant day on pb.com yesterday.Really heartwarming.
Re the ICM Poll. I have one major beef with Baxter and moreso Wells.Both of them criminally underestimate NATS and OTHERS.
I award those two a conservative 20 Seats whereas W&B struggle to put them in double figures.
Betcha !
This is how I work.I try to sort out the ‘easy’ questions first and isolate the difficult ones.
NI=18 Seats.I think we are all agreed there.
OTHERS=3.This is controversial but I will bet three v none or two v one.
NATS= 19.I have had to severely downgrade the SNP but nonetheless my figure is higher than most.
LIB DEMS= 50.This is a bearish long-term prediction rather than a state of the art up to the minute prediction.My heart tells me the Lib Dems will fail to beat 50 Seats. My EYES tell me they will get more.
This is where I give up and leave you with this little nugget. CON+LAB=560 Seats and you take it from there.
Interesting insight into ‘group think’ and (one} leading LD’s thinking. In discussing Ashcroft’s suitability for a position in any future Tory administration, the normally sensible Oakeshott argues that: “Refusing to say whether he pays full British taxes and his extreme anti-European views should disqualify him from any government position.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/01/lord-ashcroft-conservative-party
His UK tax position (is he domiciled or not) is clearly relevant, but now his opinions should be a bar to office?
In 95/6 (certainly the latter) Blair was sufficiently doubtful of an overall majority to have serious talks with Paddy Ashdown about either a coalition, or some similar arrangement.
May just be chutzpah but I don’t get any feel for Cameron doing the same thing; he comes across as expecting to win outright.
15 Miall. Given that most of Mr Osborne’s time is spent opposing the Tories, Mr Cameron may consider such talks a waste of time - until the situation arises.
12 - Baxter currently has “other (X NI)” with 24 seats.
16. I suspect you mean Mr Clegg’s time?
18 Gadfly. Oops - quite right. Obviously too early for me to be at the keyboard!
If the next election has Conservatives as clear winners, but in a hung Parliament, then the problems will be with all the other parties.
With no viable opposing coalition I suspect that the Conservatives will be able to get quite a lot done simply by maintaining the threat of an election which the other two parties simply won’t be able to afford.
17.I just re-typed 42-25-21 into Baxter and it came out OTHERS 12.Can you elaborate please ?
The mail on Sunday is reporting that no one wants to work for Gordon Brown as his official £80,000 a year spin doctor. They’ve alos said,
And the political editor of a national newspaper also turned down the post – despite a personal plea by the Prime Minister to work for him.
Wonder who that could be? Paul Dacre of the Daily Mail perhaps?
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/11/gordon-no-mates-even-for-80k-brown.html
Unlike 1996 we are going to see unemployment rising continually between now and the general election. Also not to mention another 6 months worth of Gordon Brown misjudging and ineffectually handling every situation that arises. I think the only question is whether Cameron gets a bare majority or a more comfortable one, because it could have significant policy implications.
21 - Hmm. Something funny seems to be going on - compare Baxter’s “latest prediction” with what you get when you put the same numbers into the predictor.
The predictor percentages only add up to 90% from what i can see.
22 Scott. Not, perhaps, a very attractive job to have on one’s CV.
BBC paper review at 8.27
Story 1, Stanley Johnson attacks Cameron in a play
Story 2, criticism of Cameron grows over Truss business
22 Dacre is in charge of the Mail group, not a political editor. Could be McGuire from the Mirror, Hennesey from the Telegraph, possibles Wintour from the Guardian, though he’s close to Labour the anti-Brown stance of the Guardian probably rules him out, Pascoe-Watson looking for a new job now he’s ex Sun but would he burn his bridges with Murdoch?, Grice from the Independent?
Poor James Macintyre, desperately trying to get it, doesn’t seem to have been asked.
Its a job with no future though, independent of Brown losing election the turnover in his PR people is rather high. Think it’ll be Alistair Campbell that leads on strategy while keeping a low profile with a relative non-entity being the public face.
22 Not exactly got long term prospects that job, has it?
You would know that Brown is so deluded, his spin doctor will get all the blame for having lost him the election.
He’ll probably end up bringing back McBride.
23 alex. I knew you had a stong point.Baxter predicts 10 SNP Gains so that makes a complete nonesense of an overall prediction of twelve Seats for NATS+OTHERS.
Truly it is said that government’s lose elections rather than oppositions win them.
If there is to be a landslide, it has to be both. It was both in 1997. In 1992, it was the opposition which lost. In 1987 the government won. In 1983 the government won and the opposition lost. In 1979 the government lost, and there was not a landslide.
29, worth remembering though that Brown and Labour are properly hated. The only stand-out success Labour can claim partial credit for is Northern Ireland, and that was Blair’s. Brown’s given us a wrecked economy, and his treatment of the troops hasn’t improved his popularity.
o/t Guests on Marr:
Maureen Lipman (will she reignite the Kaminski controversy?)
Ian Blair (expect some Boris bashing)
Sting (Labour luvvie)
6. I got the impression that by late ‘96 people were starting to get over their loathing of the Tories. An election in ‘95 I think could have lead to a Conservative parliamentary party of <100 seats.
Perhaps it’s like going to the vet and putting down a sick animal. You know it has to be done, but when it comes to the crunch, one feels sympathy for the victim. When you know that the outgoing government has only got a few weeks or days left, you know it’s not going to do much more damage.
Also, the article is very interesting, but not everyone shares the consensus view.
http://tinyurl.com/go-on-you-know-you-want-to
32 “When you know that the outgoing government has only got a few weeks or days left, you know it’s not going to do much more damage.”
If only that were true of Brown. He can still do untold billions of damage yet…
A pinch and a punch,
first day of the month,
ans no returns.
Silly rhyme but apt. What are you lot doing up so early on a really filthy Sunday, weatherwise?
31. Polly, Marr is as twisted as his intruductory music.
34, also, a pet that needs putting down will have years of fond memories and an immensely strong emotional bond with its family. Who feels that way about Brown?
Abdullah Abdullah pulls out of next week’s Presdiential run-off in Afghanistan - citing too many bent officials remain in power.
And we have troops dying to maintain this f*cking pantomime…
On a completly OT note, some outlets have picked up up upon the US government asking for Congressional approval for an opening of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
In the eyes of some this is a request in preparation for the choking off of oil supplies…such as a strike against Iran, or part of a long standing agreement to supply Israel oil if it’s supplied get choked.
This is not necessarily the case, the US has been known to use the Reserve as a kind of supply mechanism a bit like cash flow but unless an alternative explanation does come forward speculation will continue.
And on that happy news note, off for a run in the pouring rain with the whiff of cordite still in the air after the WW1 barrage level of fireworks shot off by the locals for Halloween.
9/10 MTF. Many thanks. Haven’t had so much fun for ages - aren’t we a sad lot!!
after having to get up at 5am (dog unwell) I had a few extra zzz’s and semi re-awoke to hear R4 saying some points based system the Govt had introduded to stop bogus (not sure what it was). (students perhaps) has actually made things worse.
Does anyone have any more info?
This thread has made me recall one of Bob Worcester’s old classics:
“Watch the share, not the lead”
Remember that leads have a 6% margin of error. It’s better to focus on vote share, and it’s only when you do that do you realise just how consistent most polls are with each other.
41
MTF
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8332314.stm
29. New YouGov poll out for Scottish Parliament:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/new-poll-labour-win-most-seats-at-holyrood-1.929738
An amateurish punt I’ve just had…
I’m a total layman when it comes to multinational takeovers… but PP have market on how much Cadbury will be sold for. They offer 5/1 that it will be less than $14bn. Reports in the papers today suggest that Kraft is the only bidder and that it may go for about $12bn. On that basis I’ve had the max £20. Bets void if no sale in 2009.
It’s in their novelty/current affairs section if anyone wants to look at it.
Sir Ian Blair on Marr is out attacking Boris Johnson, saying the Mayor in effect sacked him, saying he doesn’t like the Mayor being so powerful. ‘I was the first Commissioner that lived in the era of 24 hour news’.
‘The biggest story in the world was on my patch.’
‘Meneges. I don’t feel responsible for a series of events on the ground going wrong.’
‘There are two many lairs in the hierarchy.’
Marr - ‘Boris Johnson decided he wanted to get rid of you.’ No reply.
‘Cameron wants Mayors elected up and down the country, who would have power to hire and fire Police Chiefs.’
Blair.’historically ignorant policy. You need hearings about whether someone is fit to hold office. Power in the the hands of Mayors would make things less safe (Marr lead his witness).’
No reply asked for from the Conservatives. Really shocking. The BBC has spoken.
The overruling of aircraft safety warnings by the Ministry of Defence resulted in the deaths of six British servicemen in a helicopter crash, a senior official has revealed.
He also alleged that documents were withheld from the board of inquiry and the inquest to cover up the way in which airworthiness regulations were ignored. The former civil servant said he had refused to declare the Royal Navy’s Sea King Mk7 helicopters airworthy, but was overruled by superiors trying to save money.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6898192.ece
38 PP have Hamid Karzai at 1/8 if anyone can be bothered with such prices and uncertainties.
There may be trouble ahead, but while there’s music……etc
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/01/peter-oborne-david-cameron
@10 - what an awesome website - thank you so much.
On the Afghan election fiasco at least Abdullah Abdullah could host a version of Mastermind, although he started but didn’t finish
Satan’s Angels ‘eh!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/6473760/Mayor-refuses-to-judge-evil-Halloween-pumpkin-contest.html
OT - why’s Harperson got a shoe broach on? Freak. It’s got to the point with her that it’s just a noise.
49
A lot of what Oborne says makes sense. He is worng on one point though. Ken Clarke is a hasbeen and since everyone is just waiting for him to flounce off in a huff over Europe, when he actually does it will have little or no impact.
But Oborne is right. Cameron does have a problem which is that the Tory party now (and even more so after the election) is vehemently anti-EU and as such he will find himself with very few allies if he decides to try and compromise on the issue.
I am always amazed at how much the papers focus on the Tories and not the fact that Labour is now more hated than the Thatcher regime. I met up with an old friend who works for BBC news recently. A staunch ex-Oxford socialist as they all are. It was like she was in shellshock that the beloved new Labour project was crumbling before her eyes. She still could not take in how much the country hated her agenda.
This site and the betting markets have always been ahead of the press. What today just seems to confirm to me is that Labour is heading for a massive wipeout on a scale we have never seen before. The Tories under Cameron are competent now but still a work in progress. Labour are just abysmal.
53 A horse shoe or stiletto? I won’t turn the TV because I don’t want to look at her.
O/T Sunday Times has an article on another Scotsman who governs the sassenachs - David McAllister, with roots in Newton Mearns. is premier of Lower Saxony. He apparently is a big fan of Goldie and searches YouTube for her speeches, yes it’s Annabel and of course David Cameron who are his heroes. “Every so often I like to look up his website and see if he has any new policies or presentational ideas I can copy.”
Premier McAllister is a staunch unionist, though the SNP are keen to be seen with him. He is a Europhile though so is pained that his heroes do seem anti-EU.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6898019.ece
42.
Also watch the paper doing the polling.This year to date Sunday telegraph ICM polls have appeared on 4 occasions and on average gave Labour -3% share comared to the same months ICM Guardian,Cons -1% share and Lib dems plus 3%.
Taking I like for like the layest Guadian ICM still gives the Cons a 17% lead.
The closest predictor of election results is the ICM Guardian Calendar year shares preceding th eGE.
In 2005 the final result was within 1% for all parties (actual had +1% for libs and Cons,_1% for Lab and others.
So far in 2009 cumulative varage shres on ICM Guardian are Con 41.5,Lab 28%,Lib 19%.This suggests GE shares of 42.5%,Lab 27%,Lib 20%,Oth 10.5%. and a Con lead of 15.5%.
So labour havelost the next GE(rather than the cons have won)
52 Too right too. Halloween is a fashion imported from the US following the success of the slasher film Halloween
A little off topic but does anyone know why the Tories dont fight back on Northern Rock? The constant jibe that Osborne got it wrong seems off the mark to me.
It is now clear that the Government will lose money on the nationalisation. In addition the country has taken on a large exposure to risky mortgages. This creates a perverse incentive for the Government to prop up the housing market rather than direct funds to new investment. While letting the depositors lose money was probably a bad idea there were many ways of protecting them without nationalising the bank.
In summary it may have been the right idea but it was not clear cut. Thus it is hard to criticise Osborne for questioning what happened.
45. Sparky. The Times is reporting a hostile bid of £10.5 billion, which would put it over $14 billion
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/consumer_goods/article6898098.ece
59 Halloween, Fathers day, St Patrick’s day - all now firmly established in the UK calendar by marketeers.
59 We celebrate Bonfire Night in England, Mayor Wilson should be out next weekend judging the best effigy of the Pope, before they are burned.
53. Seems like Maureen Lipman was elbowed aside for Hattie - ready with her stiletto. That ghastly broach looked even more bizarre adjacent to the poppy. The AM Show seems to exist in its own bubble, very much as jono @55 describes. Shades of the last days of Eric Honecker?
52
LOL. What a pillock.
There are things wrong with Halloween at many levels.
Not only does it involve begging, it involves begging with intimidation. Trick or Treat. No treat means tipping the rubbish bin on the lawn or posting rubbish through the letter box.
Then there is the issue of children visiting strangers houses in the dark. Whilst adults can monitor proceedings, there are safety implications of children accepting strangers’ sweets - which may have been tampered with.
65
The mayor I mean Coldstone, not you.
61 Thanks for checking that Scott. Bit embarrassed by my poor research! Hope nobody jumped in… thank God they put a £20 max on it!
67 I would say you are a pillock too
67 LOL
re 68. Shall I direct the bills to you Sparky?
67
69
I don’t mind, stick and stones etc. at least I’m not one of Satan’s Angels errr well I don’t think I am.
Even Mother’s Day, is a US import, when I t’were lad it was Mothering Sunday.
The, ‘Turnip Taliban’ they’ll love that, isn’t Norfolk more Sugar Beet country?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1224404/Revealed-Cameron-Cutie-wanted-scrap-Queen.html
re 66. Maybe anybody who has a front door that trick or treaters can knock upon will have to be CRB checked?
That’s no more daft that any of the other rubbish under this new law that our stupid MPs allowed through.
61 Personally I hope Kraft fail in their take over of Cadbury.
Since joining the EU, we seem to be losing all our home grown companies.
Is it my imagination or do Rowntree products taste different since Nestle takeover? Did they change the recipes of KitKat etc?
It’s early yet for a new conspiracy theory. This one is not one of mine, but Stanley Johnson, Boris’ Dad, suggesting Cameron might have some interesting backers…..
I’ve copyrighted the picture.
CLICK HERE.
73 Well, that seems the logical conclusion for our common sense bereft rulers.
66 etc,
WRONG. Halloween is NOT an American import, it is in fact an ancient British tradition - known as Mischief night in northern England and Scotland, punkie night in Somerset, danger night elsewhere, etc etc.
It was merely popularised and commercialised by American movies and handed back to us - in the same way the Yanks took English and Irish folk music, mixed them with black slave rhythms, and gave us back rock n roll.
So you can go out trick-or-treating with yer kids, knowing you are performing an ancient and honourable British custom.
O/T but I see that the Luton & Dunstable Express has begun a campaign for Margaret Moron to step down (she hasn’t been seen since May).
There could be advantage to Labour in this. Although they’d likely lose a by-election, at least their candidate would have the chance to raise his profile, and have a fighting chance of regaining, in May, what ought to be a safe Labour seat. If she doesn’t step down before the general election, then the vote here will be a referendum on both her and Gordon Brown, and Labour will get hammered.
71 Sorry about that. I did wonder if was possible to strike that post? Hopefully they won’t be successful and it will void.
66
PS, and FYI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mischief_night
73 - Mike
Halloween “It all started in America”
77
Thanks Sean. I am glad someone is standing up for us pagans.
77 Halloween may have been reimported from the US. Still, it isnt a tradition for me.
That aside, the issues laid out in 66 remain, Begging, Begging with Menaces, children accepting food from strangers.
There isnt much positive in there.
75
The future’s bright, the future’s yellow.
78 It might be good for Labour in Luton long term but a By Election hammering would be very bad for Brown short term in terms of him staying as PM. Therefore no chance it’ll happen. Brown won’t care if Labour are destroyed in Luton South for 20 years. His only focus is the next seven months.
83 I do find Trick or Treat irritating.
Interesting thread, but by the end of November 96 the lead was 19%, about the same as the current Cons lead. This is a classic spin story by Mike and is I think really irrelevant. Also Parliaments make up then was totally different to now,did not Labout hold 271 seats. It is a different ball game.
The other issue which helped Labour was the pact it had with the libdems. That hit the tory and labour vote but helped the libdems to eat into tory seats.
I presume that has now unwound and will be an important factor in tories getting more seats than the swing might suggest.
I note that after bending competition rules to create the Lloyds banking group (and indeed nationalising NR) brown is now invoking competion in order to break these banks up.
We are governed by the grand old duke of york.
60. jono “A little off topic but does anyone know why the Tories dont fight back on Northern Rock? “
I wonder if it is just because they don’t need to…
Gordo has been hammering the “wrong on recession, wrong on recovery” line for weeks now, and it has got him precisely 17 points behind in the polls
It might also be a reflection of the “who is in government, who is in opposition” meme. Perhaps the Tory thinking is that Labour’s shrill pleading is so blindingly obviously bogus that it is not worth dignifying with a response.
77. Sean , exactly I was out guising long before trick or treat was ever heard of , it is unfortunate that nowadays we ruin our old traditions by replacing them with the inferior copycat versions imported from America which are almost always commercially based.
73. “That’s no more daft that any of the other rubbish under this new law that our stupid MPs allowed through”
This letter was in yesterday’s Telegraph.
“SIR – My god-daughter, aged 17, will shortly be attending a four-day sports event where she will be billeted two to a room with others like her.
The third day of this event is her 18th birthday and according to this government she will immediately turn into a possible paedophile and not be permitted to continue to stay with her room-mate for the remainder of the event.
I suppose she could apply for CRB clearance beforehand, but I do not think it applies to under-18s.
Colin Patrick
Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/6468329/Honest-ex-offenders-are-illegally-targeted-on-the-pretext-of-child-protection.html
87 - Well let us see what the lead is at the end of November 2009 before we start dismissing things.
44 - I saw that in the paper this morning Alan. According to John Curtice the results would be the same on the new boundaries too. Pretty sure these have been finalised now although I haven’t seen any notional figures yet.
90. Guising has a slightly different slant though. Penny for the Guy illustrates that in the British tradition Halloween is just a warm up for the main event in November, whereas the American import is stand alone.
93 If the SNP are retaining the popularity of 2007 but face losing power it does show how carefully balanced the electoral system is. Labour could return to power simply if other parties improve their performance on the list.
88 I think that the Conservatives will do better against Labour, and worse against the Lib Dems, than uniform national swing suggests.
The outcome will be that the Conservatives finish up with an overall seat total that is in line with UNS, but Labour will have a lower total, and the Lib Dems a higher total. The Lib Dems will probably take a handful of seats directly from Labour, too.
re 87. The point of the piece was to put in context the widely held perception that Tony Blair was doing much better in the same pre-election period.
As I state there is an element of that but you have to look at the main opposition party - and Brown’s Labour is doing a lot lot worse that Major’s Tories.
Now please tell me what is the spin that you accuse me of?
re 96. Spot on Sean.
BTW are you in Luton North or Luton South?
49 - Just noticed a little titbit in that Oborne article. Was anyone else aware that Glenys Kinnock is no longer Minister for Europe? (and indeed the post reduced to a lower ministerial level).
Even wikipedia didn’t know!
83
And that terrible christmas tradation where we pretend that a perfect stranger - a dirty old man even - creeps into children’s rooms at night and leaves them ‘presents’.
What a terrible example to be setting!
93 The Boundary Commission for Scotland has now finalised boundaries for all areas in Scotland .
96 My guess (if Brown remains PM) would be something like:
Conservative 384
Labour 170
Lib dem 60
SNP 10
Plaid 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
Peoples’ Voice 1
Northern Ireland 18
95 - I think their is a small dip in the SNP’s share of the regional vote (from 31% to 29%) which is a contributing factor.
87 - For about the 1000th time:
LABOUR GOT A MAJORITY OF 179!!!
99 - Yes, it was a big debating issue on here when it broke some weeks ago via twitter.
98 I just fall into Luton South. In theory, it’s the tougher of the two Luton seats for the Conservatives, but Margaret Moran’s behaviour (and the exemplary behaviour of Kelvin Hopkins) make it the better Conservative prospect, IMHO.
99, it was mentioned here a few weeks/months ago I think, but only briefly. Most comment was surprise at the quiet reshuffle and the brevity of her term in office.
Mike @98: “96. Spot on Sean.”
Mike, IIRC VIPA was giving you relatively low LibDem scores, and much bigger Tory majorities, than UNS would suggest.
Am I wrong about what VIPA produces, or do you not believe in it any more?
102 - What about UUP MP’s should thy not be considered to all intents and purposes Conservatives?
109 - what makes you think they’ll be any?
96 Luton North would just about fall to the Conservatives on current polls, but Kelvin Hopkins’ record on expenses may enable him to hold on by a few hundred votes.
109 Good point. One should thus add one or two seats to the Conservative total.
102 Everyone is assuming that the NI parties will gain 18 seats, however isn’t it the case that some UCU-NF candidates may be local Tories rather than UUP members?
14. I find the huffing and puffing by Gisela Stuart and Oakeshott in that article very heartwarming.
102 see 85.
108 Very sad about that Finance Minister. What did Japan think generally? Aso sounded totally devastated.
OT The latest Cameron email. I am still yet to receive anything from either of my registrations with Labour.org - still it’s only been 3 months.
“Dear P,
This week the failures of this Labour Government were exposed across three major fronts: society, the military, and the economy.
First, society. New figures have shown that many poor families are actually better off on benefits than in work. What kind of signal does this send about what society expects of people? “Don’t strive for independence, don’t try to provide for your family, don’t try and do the responsible thing”. It’s a crazy situation to be in, so on Tuesday I announced a new policy initiative to look into the best way of tackling it.
Second, the military. As you might remember from my email two weeks ago we’ve been pushing hard against deep cuts in training for army reservists. Thankfully, we’ve now succeeded in getting these cuts stopped. On Wednesday I asked the Prime Minister to tell us what on earth he was thinking of when he proposed to cut this training when the country is at war. As ever, I didn’t get an answer.
Third, the economy. Whilst Britain now finds itself in the longest and deepest recession since records began, we learned on Thursday that the US has now joined all the other major economies in climbing out of recession and into recovery.
Gordon Brown’s claims that we were somehow the “best placed” country to weather the recession have been completely blown out of the water by the fact we were one of the first into recession, and are now the last out. Our economy desperately needs an injection of credit and confidence - and we’re only going to get that with fresh economic leadership.”
The data included in the published table shows quite clearly that in 97 ICM underestimated Labour’s lead - and was the only pollster to do so!
102 Sean Fear. So you make the Greens starting favourites in Brighton Pavilion?
109. Yes, but not in the plural.
117 Where do you get your Gower/Llanelli/newport confidence from? Are you expecting Labour to poll around 30% nationally? I can’t see how they’ll hold all while polling in the 20’s.
The problem with your thesis is the way FPTP works and I am astonished I need to remind you of it. The difference is between 47% predicted in 1997 and 40% predicted now. The multiplier effect of FPTP is much less reliable with a more even split. The difference between first and second much less important. If the others get their much larger predicted vote and it doesn’t go Tory in the voting booth then the result is much less certain and Heseltine could still be right.
Lucky Stephen Fry isn’t a PB regular - I can’t believe this is news.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8336425.stm
91 - So how does it work when a 17 yr old marries a sixteen year old? Sleep together for a year and then get marched off to jail?
122, you’re right that it shouldn’t be news, but in Fry’s defence he is a manic-depressive. Mood swings are basically par for the course.
77. November 4 was always Mischief Night round here. I’d always assumed in commemoration of the Plot explosives being placed but wonder now whether it had been shunted off Halloween by the growing prominence of that.
I did hear a wonderful comment about Halloween on Fighting Talk yesterday along the lines of “the country worries itself into paranoia for most of the year about paedophilia and childhood obesity and then encourages children to demand sweets from strangers on October 31.”
Punter @115 - yes, bit of a strange business that. To the extent that people here have an opinion I guess it’s sympathetic. People here are a bit more used to politicians committing suicide than they are in the UK. Looking at this list of famous Japanese who killed themselves, there’s been at least one every year since 2005, and quite a few before that, too.
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/自殺した日本の有名人の一覧
126 - And in English?
125 I laughed when I heard that - Fighting Talk is excellent.
TO be fair (and I am a massive fan of Fry though I don’t do Twitter) he is a manic depressive (I forget what the proper term is so apologies).
Anyone who watched the programme he did on the subject will recognise that his reaction to the criticism is typical of his (and any other sufferers) response when he is in the depressive part of the cycle. I find it amazing he or anyone else in that situation is actually able to function at all.
I suppose it is news because tens of thousands of people follow what he says. Never saw the point of it all myself.
115 You’re right.
118 I think I do. Clearly, a Green vote is not wasted in that constituency, and the demographics of the seat (very left wing, secular, gay, university-dominated) give them an excellent chance.
117 ICM were far closer to the actual outcome than any other pollster. The majority were giving Labour leads of 20%+.
129, the Secret Life of the Manic-Depressive, I think. It’s so-called proper name is bipolar disorder nowadays. There’s also a more minor version (bipolar light, if you like) but I forget the name.
126 I find the fact that the Japs have a term for ‘death from overwork’ the most disconcerting.
Have you seen the reality TV show where victims are on the receiving end of a death prank? I saw a clip where the ‘dinner party’ had been assailed by rogue gun men who killed several of the guests
Oh ho ho ho, not
130. It’s cruel to snatch away the last straws of hope from condemned men in such a manner, Sean.
My mum was a manic depressive and sectioned twice [in a place with bars on the windows which I hope has been raised to the ground] so I’m pretty familiar with it - I wondered why it was news
133 - It’s back to the old “apology” debate re: World War II. Japanese apparently have about 20 different forms of apology dependent on the level of responsibility. From memory, British veterans got very worked up that they were given an apology but wasn’t the “highest category”.
Which would have required the person giving it to kill himself straight afterwards.
134, sorry, didn’t read the article right to the end.
It’s news for the same reason Sky has the four remaining Boyzone members talking about Gately’s death ahead of Abdullah pulling out of the Afghan election, and why the BBC last year cut away from a torture victim denied justice to show exciting live pictures of the English football team arriving at a hotel.
alex @127: The best I can do is Google Translate.
http://tinyurl.com/ygozg4l
It made a bit of a mess of the names, unfortunately.
118 Remarkably, the Conservative vote share has continued to fall (by 4%) since 1997 in that seat. That must be one of the worst Conservative performances anywhere, particularly when there’s no element of tactical squeeze.
120.I actually think Labour is likely to end up in the early 30s.I do not disagree with you re Gower being at risk , but Labour did hold Swansea Weat and Newport East at both the Assembly and Euro elections.Newport West - and Gower ! - stayed Labour at the Assembly elections.I think Labour will poll a good deal higher at LLanelli at a General Election - there was clearly a high personal vote for the Plaid candidate at the Assembly election which is unlikely to carry over.
It is also worth pointing out that turnout at the Euro elections in Wales fell much more sharply than in UK as a whole - probably because there were no Local elections being held on the same day. I strongly suspect that this drop hit Labour in a disproportionate way.As a result Labour’s very poor performance was probably somewhat exaggerated!
135 The Japanese commander of the Kamikazes slit open his stomach and contemplated his insides for about a day before he died, when Japan surrendered.
It was considered a most noble form of atonement for failure.
43 Thanks Richard, Its just so like this Govt to bring in something that backfires horribly.
Just had to go out for an hour and the rain was torrential. Gale force wind here too about force 6 I reckon. A filthy day indeed
OT
What a man Hodgson is, just heard him on the radio giving support to Liverpool. Al Fayed hasn’t done to many worthy things of note, but bringing in Hodgson was a master stroke. Brilliant Manager.
Lots of decent money flooding in to Back Labour.
I think I have got it now.Whenever things start to look terminal for Labour’s electoral prospects, the focus shifts to a possible change of Leadership and what that might do to the polling figures after say a ‘Balls Bounce’.
121. Huh? I don’t know where your 40% figure comes from as that’s the lowest ICM figure for the Tories since the Expenses Scandal was at its height and the latest ICM poll has them right in the middle of the 40-45 band they’ve occupied since.
Even more relevantly, what on earth does “If the others get their much larger predicted vote and it doesn’t go Tory” mean? If Others get more votes then by definition it can’t go Tory (or Labour or Lib Dem). For practical purposes in most seats, it doesn’t matter what the Other vote is except in as far as where it comes from i.e. the impact on the headline gap between the Tories and Labour.
Of course, there *could* be a hung parliament produced at the GE but not off current figures without wildly differing turnouts from 2005. It’s also worth noting that neither the figures in 1996 nor those now are predictions of what will happen at the election; they are measurements of what would happen if there was an election now. That’s a different thing as they don’t seek to measure the impact of events over the next six months, unlike the betting markets.
138 I suspect Labour would much rather be beaten by the tories in Brighton Pavilion in a similar way that it proved a good thing long term for the Tories for Labour to have won St Albans in 1997. If the Greens win Labour will be lucky ever to contend again as there’ll probably be a relatively secure Green seat with residual Tory strength as clear 2nd I’d guess.
130 I am aware that the other pollsters overstated Labour’s lead in 97 - but it is significant that ICM was the only pollster to understate it! The average of their last 2 campaign polls gave a 7.5% lead - well short of the outcome of 13%
Over on PB2
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/11/doctor-can-see-you-now.html
The Doctor Can See You Now.
Andy Burnham, the Health Secretary, tells us that patients must now be seen within 18 weeks. It’s going to be one of those ‘dividing lines’ between Labour and Tories at the election, he says. But as bunnco discovers, Burnham might want to be careful what he wishes for because the election headlines he’s hoping for might backfire on him.
145 Taking the campaign as a whole, ICM gave an average Labour lead of 10.25%, which was very close to the final result.
Their eve of poll (which is what pollsters are generally judged on) gave a lead of 10%, far closer than anyone else.
147 OK -but in the campaign as a whole Labour’s lead may well have been higher than 13% - narrowing a bit at the end.
109/110. Northern Ireland already provides 3 “Labour” MPs in the shape of the SDLP, who take the Whip. Hermon usually votes with Labour as well, doesn’t she?
So it’s hard to see Labour’s advantage in the province being eroded…
139 I’m not sure the Wales Assembly elections can offer much comfort. Labour was polling almost 10% higher nationally then than now. The recession had yet to happen etc. As for the Euros well let’s see the Lib Dems advanced from 4th to 2nd in Newport East, West was a good show relatively by Labour but you also have to look at the 2008 Council election when they lost Newport for the first time ever. Even if Labour wheeze back over 30% nationally to hold them all would be a little unexpected when they look stretched all across Wales.
The United States were a republic formed from a large chunk of the British population. We share a common history and ethos - why should we have such a problem exchanging tradition and culture?
I know the talk at the moment is all about British decline. But please, don’t let us get to the point of submissiveniss where we have a chip on our shoulder about every cultural import. Let’s leave that to the French.
As a sidenote, isn’t it good we don’t have fixed-term parliaments? If we did, MacSnotgobbler would have had to go for it in May just gone. Instead he’ll go in May next year, the last possible moment, meaning after a further year of poll decline.
I don’t see it as a point against the Tories that they’re not on 47%. Labour was on 47% only because 1/ they lied about their opponents, something the Tories haven’t sunk to; and 2/ the economy was basically sorted, and some naive types thought we could risk Labour because even they couldn’t c0ck it all up again from this position.
145 polls often do jump around during a campaign, getting people excited, but often the polls at start of campaign end up close to the outturn, as indeed is the case here. Wonder if its to do with propensity to vote changing during a campaign with the may/may nots being either fired up or depressed by campaign events.
Then of course there’s the polling companies view that 10% or so voters don’t decide finally until they are in the privacy of the booth and faced with the choice. Likely they actually made their minds up weeks/months before and at the point of voting it’s that longer term preference that drives their choice.
149 The SDLP should certainly retain Foyle and South Down. South Belfast is a toss-up.
“The only stand-out success Labour can claim partial credit for is Northern Ireland, and that was Blair’s. by Morris Dancer November 1st, 2009 at 8:59 am”
IMHO I think this was always John Majors total victory not Bliars (even partially). All the hard work had already been done prior to Bliar coming to power and all Labour did was cross the ‘t’s and dot the I’s. They then took all the credit for their own political ends.
Like so many other things this Labour government has done over the last 12 years it was not achieved by their own efforts but by hanging onto other peoples coat tails. It was only when their own efforts came to the fore did we then end up in this total economic disaster.
152 Unless we continued to have 5 year Parliaments of course.
Or annual ones
http://www.bilderberg.org/land/leveller.htm
re 117. Indeed - ICM did understate Labour but they did better than the others.
This is the full list of 1997 polls -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
39. The run up in price last year from $70 to $140 coincided exactly with the beginning and end of the US filling the SPR with high-quality sweet oil. It could be a coincidence but there are good reasons foe believing that the oil price spike and collapse were caused by US and EU government environmental legislation, strategic inventory buying, and the Olympics encouraging China to store diesel.
If they’re monkeying with the SPR again we should be very afraid.
If Gordo stays until the election and Rentoul is correct in the Independent this morning and Miliband goes to Brussels does this mean Alan Johnson is back to being favourite as Labour leader followed by Harman and Balls?
Looking forward to a Conservative Govt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/6475602/Tory-grassroots-threaten-revolt-over-female-candidate.html
It will be a comedy writers dream.
“It’s the same social outlook which caused a few North Norfolk Tories to swallow hard when I, a gay man, was selected as the candidate there in 2003.”
Drugs adviser was wrong - Johnson
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8336509.stm
I fancy Caroline Lucas something rotten at Brighton Pavillion.Whereas the Tories are the formal bookies favourite I think it is their vote against the rest and particularly so if Labour support collapses to the point where Labour simply cannot win.
May 2010 GE Night is set to be the worst in luvvie history.A victory for the Greens would provide a hankie to wipe away all those tears.
The Lady will get great coverage and will win.
bunnco, good article on PB2 went to make a comment just to prove someone had read it and all I got was a stream of HTML so was unable to do so.
Don’t be disheartened people are reading your article.
160 - By Melissa Kite……
End of story, back to the “holiday” Timbot!
159. AJ is the favourite on SPIN
157 Also interesting that in October 1996 the Lib Dems were generally polling around 11-12%, which rose to 17% by the election. In 2005 it didn’t quite work out the same way: six months before the election they were already polling in the low 20s.
We’re all in this together.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/6475660/Tories-5-billion-tax-breaks-for-married-couples-benefit-rich-most.html
Just how much do the Cameron and Osborne families plan to enrich themselves?
And this on top of the Million Quid IHT they’ll trouser.
155 Spot on. I always laugh when the New Labour toadies go on about Blair’s wonderful first term. That was far more down to Major than anything Blair did. Similarily when Cameron gets in and his first term is endlessly tough, that is Gormless Gordon’s version of the “Golden” legacy.
Somebody mentioned up-thread the “Bogus students” story on R4,
Bogus student checks ‘don’t work’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8332314.stm
150 I have to say that I am not at all persuaded that local elections offer a good guide as to the likely outcome in a General Election - party loyalties are much looser - people vote on a much more parochial basis.Commentators and part activists get far too excited about them! LibDem success at local elections in Liverpool ,Sheffield, Newcastle , Pendle - or even here in Norwich - has rarely been translated into success at Parliamentary elections.At present , in Norwich South .commentators have speculated on a Green MP being elected based on recent Local election results. Not for a moment do I expect it to happen - though I may well vote for them here in Norwich North!
166. The “natural” level of support for the Libs since Feb 1974 is 19.9%, being their average GE score.
Re cultural import from the USA, ‘trick or treat’ is just the thin end of the wedge:
Police quash nude pumpkin run
Give it another five years…
Tim aren’t your hosts wondering what you are doing? Pretty rude of you, spending all this time on PB, like one of those rude teenagers glued to their phones texting away, during breakfast, lunch and dinner, on the bog, in the shower, etc etc etc.
That is if you really are on holiday from Fantasy Farm.
The pro Truss/anti Truss battle is a proxy war for Dave’s cojones
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6898340.ece
167 re tax breaks
If the tax breaks are designed to change behaviour, then it seems unfair to base criticisms on the behaviour in question (married women staying at home) remaining unchanged.
Only a troll would remark that this proves Cameroons are Blairites and favour social engineering over small government.
161 Johnson is a tw@. He gives no reasons for believing Nutt to be wrong.
I probably agree with Grayling that Nutt’s dismissal was “inevitable”. I think he should have resigned on a point of principal - that Government routinely ignored scientific advice for no good reason - and then spouted off.
Liam Donaldson, another tw@, is quoted
“Earlier Sir Liam Donaldson told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show rows between advisers and politicians were best kept behind closed doors: “I think to find yourself in a situation like this is very controversial… these things are best sorted out behind the scenes so that the government and their advisers can go to the public with a united front.”
I can’t buit help disagreeing fundamentally with this.
Government isn’t some private proptietary organisation like a company which is entitled to keep its internal workings private. It is a representative of the people, it governs on our behalf, both Alan Johnson and Sir Liam are my employees, my servants.
Advice to the government should be done in the form of a post on an Internet site.
We the citizens can then take a view on the way in which Government uses that advice and puts it into policy.
170 I think with the exception of Liverpool Lib Dem success in the places you list is relatively recent i.e since 2003. In seats they took from the Tories it was strength built up over many years. You are correct not to overstate it as short terms it is survivable particularly when things are going well but over time I think you are missing all those canvassers and campaign organisation. The effect is magnified when the tide turns on a party. It is hard say to read having only 1 Labour Councillor in Watford as being anything other than a serious indicator for Labour.
155. Agreed. Historians ought to be much kinder to John Major than his contemporaries have been. The combination of Europe and the media’s avid attention to (some very silly) *sleaze* stories distorted everything. Labour won in ‘97 on the back of lies lies and lies (which would have been a more apt mantra than education).
173. They make allowances for him. He’s actually 15 years old and believes he’s a farmer. When he used to go round there 10 years ago he thought he was a monster, and they all pretended to be scared of him. “Ooh little timmy! You’re such a scary monster!”
171 Not sure how you can justify this, picking such an arbitrary date. Why not go back to 1962, or indeed 1862? Giving such an “average” totally ignores the fact that a party may be in a general period of decline, or growth.
178 - Majors role (or non role, given his abdication of Foreign policy to Hurd) in the Balkans condemns him totally.
180 - Er because that is the date at which the Liberals began fighting elections again on a national basis.
160. I never knew North Norfolk tories swallowed, tim. makes you wonder why people go all that way to Thailand.
167. Those Pesky Initial Caps Again. Can we be sure they won’t Trouser the money?
Shock, Labour MP could have cost us betting winnings!
http://tinyurl.com/yb5a6md
“But The Mail on Sunday has established that solicitor Andrew Dismore, MP for Hendon – the seat next to Mr McNulty’s – used his position on the Commons’ standards and privileges committee to argue the former Minister should face no financial sanctions.”
I always thought that Dismore was slimy, now I am even more upset at his alleged attempts to save a trougher.
tim
How much have the Blair and Brown families enriched themselves since 1997?
182 Didn’t realise that. But I still don’t see why an “average” figure (I presume you mean arithmetic mean) over the last 35 years should be of any value.
186 - it has no value.
179. Mind you Tim’s farming skills have come in handy on PB. He is very good at spreading manure.
Has anyone put a Freedom of Information request in to Tony Blair’s office enquiring how much UK tax he pays?
It would be fun if the Lib Dems gained Swansea West by a margin of 75 votes.
Majors role (or non role, given his abdication of Foreign policy to Hurd) in the Balkans condemns him totally.
by tim November 1st, 2009 at 11:52 am
mmmmm, sounds a bit like,
Blair’s role (or non role, given his abdication of Financial policy to Brown) in the collapse of government finances condemns him totally, doesn’t it?
146 - 18 weeks hahaha
I was diagnosed with a Kidney stone the same time as Mandleson he had his done within a week, they haven’t managed it within a year!
To boot, have now cancelled operation on Thursday, to 17th December!
Watch this space….
On the Halloween thing:
http://www.charismamag.com/index.php/prophetic-insight/23723-the-danger-of-celebrating-halloween
(was on Pat Robertson’s Christian Broadcasting Network website but got taken down as just too nutty)
It’s worrying that people like this are apparently able to function in the real world …
163 - posting comments on PB2 does work. Have another go!
177. I recall in the 80s and early 90s the Tories being pretty well wiped out in places such as Basildon , Stevenage and Harlow - yet this did not prevent them hanging on to the Parliamentary seats there!.Similarly, the LibDems have been strong in Milton Keynes since 80s - but never come close - even with Bill Rodgers as their candidate in 87 - at a General Election.
185 - Whatever his faults i don’t think “enriching himself” is something that Brown can really be accused of. Perhaps the country would be doing a bit better if he had a talent for understanding how people go about doing that? The tax system would probably be a damn sight less complicated if he understood the implications of what he was doing!
180. alex @182 has it right. In 1950 the Libs only fought 100 seats, so their 3% then was not a true reflection of their support.
I chose Feb 1974 as it is the first recent election where Lib support could be measured on a more-or-less equal basis with the other two parties. Over those 9 elections there has been no clear trend, and the average is the best guess at the Libs natural level of support nationally.
The equivalent Lab and Con shares are
Con 38.6%
Lab 37.1%
So the natural ratios are broadly 2:2:1
(About three threads ago)
X Factor I like John and Edward but they can’t sing very well. I want them to go all the way to the final, but one of the proper singers should win. The best singers are Lucie and Stacey and Joe. I don’t like Danyl or Lloyd or Jamie. I’m still annoyed that the age limit was raised to 16 instead of 14 - I wanted Liam Payne to come back again.
———–
The reason why someone couldn’t find a picture of Wolfgang Schüssel (Austrian politician) was because he searched for Wolfgang Schlussel (non-existant).
————
Is EU harmonisation and integration is going to mean merging the royal families? Can we have Prince Louis of Luxembourg? Romania can get Prince Edward.
196 Correct, He has done the complete opposite and made generations of UK taxpayers much the poorer for his profligacy.
Sean Fear wrote [UAF] *claim* [David Cameron] is a supporter. I believe he sent them a letter when they were set up, wishing them well, but he has subsequently made it clear that he is opposed to their policies and tactics.
That UAF list of supporters still includes Paul Foot.
Tony Blair’s chances of becoming European president have slipped away and the government is switching its efforts to get David Miliband the job of High Representative, or EU de facto foreign minister. As Guido has noted, the Blairites are relentless pragmatists who usually have a plan B and this time Miliband to Europe is it. His chances of getting the post appear to be pretty high.
But that would create a small vacancy at the Foreign Office back in boring old blighty. Who on earth could possibly want the job? It’s a tough one. Perhaps a man who has waited his entire career for such a crowning glory? A big figure keen to emulate his grandfather who served, albeit briefly, as Foreign Secretary? Who could that be?
I know, how about the humble and ever eager to serve Lord Mandelson? Might he be available to step into the breach? Just happens he might
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/11/01/mandelson-wants-to-be-foreign-secretary/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
In the English-speaking countries quiz, I got 35/56 (I forgot to include Australia). In the numbers from 1 to 100 quiz, I got 89/100.
I liked this one:
http://www.sporcle.com/games/alphabet.php
195 I said short term. It is survivable for a period but in the longer term it is corrosive to party morale and organisation. Look at the way the Lib Dems have squeezed the Tories from contention in some Northern cities. In any case the locals are hardly isolated evidence in Wales. Every test of opinion since 2005 has show Labour shedding votes at a faster pace than anywhere else in the UK. Maybe you are right and at the election normal service for Labour will resume. OTOH with everything taken together plus YouGov polling maybe just maybe Labour are struggling.
What a novel defence!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6898213.ece
*** CONTROVERSIAL BETTING POST ***
This one is for professionals and traders only. A bet may lose as well as win.
Lib Dems 50.5+ @ 4-5 with Skybet represents just about the best way of Backing them right now. In an earlier post I said that they would get 50 Seats which makes this tip look a trfle whacky.
I need to elaborate. All the BETTING evidence suggests that the Lib Dems will beat 50 Seats.It looks like a 4-7 chance on paper.
Nobody wants to bet Under 50 and 39- is a pariah.
tim- Has mirthios honoured his £50 wager yet ?
178. Rubbish - typical viewpoint of a certain kind of tunnel visioned Tory, the type that would vote for anything with a blue rosette regardless of the circumstances. Major lost because he conned the electorate in 1992 culminating in Black Wednesday a few months after his re-election. The electorate never forgave the Tories deception and the damage the early nineties recession did to businesses and individuals. The result of the next election was pretty well determined as early as 1993/94. Labour are about to find out the public are going to be similarly vengeful for the even greater damage they have wreaked to the UK economy and public finances.
189 I would expect (and hope) that this is covered by Data Protection and not disclosable under FOI.
Rod Crosby will tell us there will be swingback - like there was in 1996????
203 There is no doubt that Labour are struggling - whether this has more dire consequences for its position in Wales is, I believe, far from clear at this stage.
195. Justin
You are incorrect regarding Basildon, Harlow and Stevange.
The Conservatives were never ‘wiped out’ there locally in the 80s and 90s as they never existed locally in those areas back then. Even today Stevenage is a Labour stronghold locally and Harlow became Conservative controlled for the first time in 2008.
The only Conservative MPs elected in that era for constituencies which didn’t have Conservative councillors were IIRC Hayes/Harlington in 1987 and Basildon in 1983.
Sometime general election results follow local election trends and sometimes the other way. But there’s now a huge number of Labour constituencies where Labour have suffered big defeats locally.
208. There was swingback from by-election results. It will be interesting to see if the pattern holds.
171 Rod That 19.9% average for the LDs is a very useful yardstick.
The issue is to assess whether they will get below, the same or above this.
I think they will get 19% which is just below their average.
BTW
Happy All Saints Day!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs6uFtAozko
re 205. I agree with URW which is why I’m a Lib Dem buyer at 50 and 51 on the spreads.
The UNS won’t work in the same way in Lib Dem seats and notice up the thread the Sean Fear prediction of 60 seats.
My guess is that it won’t be as high as that but certainly above 51.
I think that the next GE is not so much a contest between Conservative and Labour, as between VIPA and CROSBY.
I adore the wide gulf between the two.Both have points to make, both are wildly extreme.
I look forward to the outcome……if any (they could both be equally wrong).
My sympathies lie with VIPA but as always, could be wrong.
I wonder if the final analysis of polling into this election will identify any fledgling ’shy Labour’ community? Given the widespread dislike of Labour that seems to have permeated the electorate’s conscience (92-97 in reverse really), it is surely less easy to admit to being a Labour voter - will this have any carry over into polling?
202. John Loony.
I got 100/100 on 1-100. Having a numeric keypad helps.
I figured out the alphabet thing but don’t have an appropriate keyboard…
These Tory marriage tax proposals haven’t been thought through. If the purpose of them is to make sure one parent stays at home, or to make sure kids are brought up in marriage, then it should apply only to married couples with children.
218.
Marriage = Socialiam/Statism/Authoritarianism
Cohabitation = Freedom
201. If Mandelson became foreign secretary, the last remnants of organisation in Labour high command would fall apart. The dark one’s patronage and arm-twisting are all that are preventing a complete free for all, and he can’t do that from the other side of the world.
214. How much chance do you give the Lib Dems of being net gainers at the election even by one seat? Assuming 10-12 losses to the Tories maybe it is just just possible?
216. Dyed
“Given the widespread dislike of Labour that seems to have permeated the electorate’s conscience (92-97 in reverse really), it is surely less easy to admit to being a Labour voter - will this have any carry over into polling?”
Except that in 92-97 the anti-Conservative line from the media was unrelenting, even today many newspapers and the BBC in particular are sympathetic to Labour.
There is a deep and widespread dislike of Labour but it isn’t ‘fashionable’ to say it as it was to be anti-Conservative in the 1990s.
220 Come on. Most of the time he’ll be in the UK. As for arm twisting well you know there are telephones.
222 The BBC is failing to represent public opinion due to their innate bias (just look at Marr this morning or Breakfast, or the politics show or their website right now the whole lot are basically one big ppb for Labour) They had better hope it works as there will be very little sympathy for a very expensive national Broadcaster who so blatantanly fails to represent the the vast majority of the public.
22 Also it is interesting the almost complete 180 degree turn against the Tories that Dyed has done in the past few weeks.
221. Thirteen net Lib Dem gains from Labour & others sounds a lot. What would be your list?
222 Yes, 92-97 was relentless, you’re right.
F1 prediction - Hamilton, Button, Webber in that order.
210 In so far as the Conservatives ‘did not exist’ in those areas back in the 80s it surely represents a failure to prevail at local elections. The fact that this did not prevent Tory success in the same areas at General Elections is surely significant!
225 its not that interesting, I had doubts about them that are being compounded, not alleviated by events. I’d like to think I remain fairly level-headed in my posting here.
212 This http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Popular_vote.jpg doesn’t look like the sort of distribution you can sensibly apply an arithmetic mean to, the resulting figure is meaningless.
217. Which is a “numeric” keyboard? When I tried with the numbers along the top row, I got 89; when I tried with the ones on the right hand side, I got 50 and then 65 because it’s too fiddly and I keep stumbling over myself.
222. Not sure that’s true. I think it’s now highly unfashionable to say you still support Labour. I have several lefty friends who practically have to be clapped in Skevington’s Gyves
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scavenger’s_daughter
before they will, finally, and reluctantly, admit they might still vote for Gordo.
The Bashful Labour Voter is a fact.
229 How lucky, That could almost feed into a Labour, Lib Dem or UKIP narrative.
226 Was a question to Mr Smithson not a prediction. 10-12 is a band. But I’ll have a go at starting a possible list -
Edinburgh South
Swansea West
Islington South
Norwich South
Burnley
Sheffield Central
Bedford
Newport East
Bradford East
Newcastle North
Brent Central
City of Durham
Blaydon
Manchester Gorton
Chippenham - Notionally Lib Dem. I reckon the Tories will win it as a new seat but must be a plausible target.
233. Be fair - he hasn’t called himself a ‘floating voter’ yet. When that happens, your suspicions might be said to have some foundation.
FPT 215.”Also on Scotland - an Observer puff piece about Jim Murphy - who I rate as an excellent politician.”
Wibbler, totally agree with you on this. Murphy is one of the few Labour Ministers who impresses, Brown was right to stick him up against Salmond, but he could have done with a few more like him in other jobs.
Why do links with apostrophes and underscores go kaputski? Most annoying.
That torture-link again:
http://tinyurl.com/yc9usnt
Con/Lab by-elections in the 1992 parliament produced an average swing of 15.5%; in the current parliament of 10.9%.
Con/Lab by-elections in the last two years of the 1992 parliament produced an average swing of 12.0%; in the last two years of the current parliament of 17.0% (the latter with a sample size of only two, admittedly).
BREAKING NEWS:
Dr Les King resigns from Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs over David Nutt row
Another scientist has resigned from the drugs advisory body in solidarity with Prof. Nutt.
230 In fact, if we’re being determistic, I’d say that it looks like there is a negative correlation with the Labour vote and a positive one with the Conservative, which should be good news at the next election.
239 Ooops! To lose one drug scientist might be counted a misfortune, to lose two..
Etc.
231 I only managed 53 using the top level keys - the nine planets in order was is absurdly easy - did it 90 secs spare.
The Periodic Table one is vvv tough.
Punter @ 234.If you are correct about Manchester Gorton I will die a happy man.
Could it be ? Could it be ? Is there a God after all ?
227. “F1 prediction - Hamilton, Button, Webber in that order.”
PP will give you 5/1 against that result…
233 it could, yes. It could also feed into me realising I am wrong or being impressed by the eventual repsonse over Europe. It could lead to me holding my nose and voting Tory even though I am not thrilled at the prospect (if the doubts remain).
I was wrong about GDP, I thought we would be into recovery this quarter, the figures are truly bleak and therefore add to my confusion. I was wrong about Labour narrowing the gap and I am probably wrong about many other things. That’s what happens when a change is on the cards - confusion and being wrong, in large measures.
I am just interested in politics.
The difference now is the high polling of others, as such it’s the difference between the two that matters not the percentage.
There is a difference because of the bias pro labour in terms of seat distribution but anyone claiming that the tories aren’t going to win easily on these figures is absolutely mad.
O/T but with VA definite for the GOP and NJ looking too close to call (if the Democrats win this it would be the best one year after election showing for a President since Reagan), eyes have moved onto the astonishing NY-23 special election where the centrist Republican candidate has been called a ‘radical leftist’ by another Republican, where the far right conservative party candidate showed himself to not know the area and, yet, where the true Republican candidate has now thrown in the towel before the election and withdrawn.
It’s as though Ken Clarke had been opposed by a UKIPer and the other tories had supported his opponent (Palin, Pawlenty - showing himself not to be moderate at all, or interested in the presidency - etc. etc having supported the far right party candidate). At least Gingrich has come out of it well, although he has now been attacked mercilessly by the rightist bloggers for supporting his own party!?!
Where does this leave the GOP? Well, they don’t have a unifying national figure let alone one strong enough to set them back on the road to normality.
Here’s the Dem supporting view, here from Frank Rich; they can’t believe their luck.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/opinion/01rich.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
“The right’s embrace of Hoffman is a double-barreled suicide for the G.O.P. On Saturday, the battered Scozzafava suspended her campaign, further scrambling the race. It’s still conceivable that the Democratic candidate could capture a seat the Republicans should own. But it’s even better for Democrats if Hoffman wins. Punch-drunk with this triumph, the right will redouble its support of primary challengers to 2010 G.O.P. candidates they regard as impure. That’s bad news for even a Republican as conservative as Kay Bailey Hutchison, whose primary opponent in the Texas governor’s race, the incumbent Rick Perry, floated the possibility of secession at a teabagger rally in April and hastily endorsed Hoffman on Thursday.”
212 In 1997,2001,and 2005GE’s Lib Dem share was within 1% of the preceding calendar years average from ICM/Guardian polls. In 2005 it was+1%
Cuurrentcumulative Lib dems shhae for 2009 is 19% hence would expect 2010 GE share of 20%.
The only thing that could dramatically change that is if the Lib Dems can consistently push Labour into third place in the polls(currently 4% behind on the most favorable poller ICM.)In the unlikley event of that that happening then all bets are off as they could peel off Tory support as well.However if it were to occur it might be the very thing that would precipitate a GB exit. which could boost Labour a back into second place.
239 I got the distinct impression yesterday that Nutt’s colleagues were going to go en masse - he said in his Sky intv that he thought others would resign ‘perhaps even all of them’.
Not something one would say lightly me thinks.
If they do - the fall out will be massive, these posts aren’t paid and it’s not like HMG can just pick another 10 off a tree.
I still think Grayling was VERY silly to jump on the sack-him wagon.
243. I deliberately boycotted the nine planets one because there are eight planets not nine.
44.”The poll found support for the SNP has slipped in recent weeks, putting them level with Labour on 29% for voting intention in the regional vote.”
Just as I predicted, no bounce from their recent Conference. I think they have gone with the wrong strategy for the GE.
230. Not from 1830, agreed! But 1974F was something of a watershed election, and many psephologists employ it as a useful baseline.
Electoral epochs can be divided as follows.
Before 1910 two-party Lib-Con dominance
1910-1931 three party competition, as Labour eclipsed the Libs
1935-1970 two-party Lab-Con dominance
1974- three party (ish)
250 I thought they’d reinstated Pluto a couple of years ago after a fuss was made?
244 I suspect if Kaufman runs he will just have enough to win. It is a possible Lib Dem gain though.
254 Kaufman was born in 1930 - surely he’s not running again??
After about 6 attempts, I have just got all 100 numbers with 9 seconds to spare. I used the top row and I did them all in strict order. It’s awkward if you try in the wrong order because it sometimes accepts a single digit as an answer when you are trying to do a 2-digit number.
246, Disws,
Personally, I think that retaining the traits of a floating voter and being willing to criticise all sides is laudable.
I do disagree with your view of Blanchflower’s intervention - in my eyes he started off with an analogy so strained as to be badly broken - when adjusted to reflect reality, his opening stance looked painfully ridiculous and partisan and to me, that damaged his entire article on the grounds of credibility. However, I do agree that their stance on Europe needs clarification and I was unhappy over the Dannatt affair.
Before retiring I feel impelled to post this.
The 1991 Labour Party Conference had gone like a dream. It was like a precursor of the notorious Sheffield Rally.
At the very end the music played was Queen’s ‘We are the Champions’ and for the first chorus it seemed really fitting.
Sadly it went on and on.Glenys Kinnock was holding hands with Kaufman the sitting MP for Gorton and then Shadow Foreign Secretary.
To do GK some credit, the expression on her face betrayed the fact that she would rather have been holding hands with Von Ribbentrop or even Margaret Thatcher herself.
I didn’t get it at the time but retrospectively award Glenys a big URW hug.
249, Plato,
Completely agree. Rather disappointing from Grayling.
253. No - there was never any official definition of what a “planet” is until “they” (I can’t be bothered to look up the proper title) decided to define them in 2006. The original proposal would have counted Pluto as a planet, but it would have opened the door to a whole load of other bits and pieces also counting as planets (one of the minor outer planets is already bigger than Pluto anyway) as well. There was an amendment which defined the eight existing planets, and excluded Pluto. It’s something to do with being more than 3000km wide and having a gravity which is strong enough to hoovwer up all the local rubbish.
260. P.S. The amendment was passed (against the expectations of the media) so the original proposal was defeated.
189 As a UK resident, Tony Blair is liable for tax on his global income. Tax laws introduced by Gordon Brown.
224 The BBC is trying to minimise Labour losses to reduce Conservative majority. Thing is, all Conservatives need is a working majority and they will take actions against an politicised Labour supporting BBC. In
This day and age, when we are at war, with soldiers dying because of cost cutting, nobody would object to finding savings at the BBC.
Completely O/T
****** BETTING POST ******
Sparky at post #45 above has highlighted an interesting market offered by Paddy Power, featuring the $US value of Kraft’s takeover of Cadbury. However, I think he’s wrong in selecting the <$12 Billion offer, which looks way too low.
Here’s what the Sunday Times had to say this morning:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/consumer_goods/article6898098.ece
Assuming this report is broadly correct, £10.5 Billion equates to $17.2 Billion at the current exchange rate of £1 = $1.64.
This valuation sits comfortably in the middle of PP’s $16-£18 Billion valuation band, which is offered at 5/2 or 2.5/1. Very good value imho and as Sparky importantly points out, all bets are void should the takeover not proceed. PP’s full market is as follows:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/cadbury-sale/How-much-will-Cadbury’s-sell-for%3F-1579244.html
As is often the case, PP’s over-round can appear excessive, because they cover such a wide field of possibilities. In this case backing just three bands between $14-$20 Billion would produces an equalised return of around 30%. But the $16-$18 Billion band I favour at 5/2 appears to be the outstanding bet - I’m on!
249/259 I have had a look at what Nutt actually said before he was sacked. It appears to have been in a published paper, and criticises Governments for not following scientific advice to set drugs policy.
I see nothing in there that should stop him being an adviser - it doesn’t stop him giving the same advice he has always done.
So in retrospect, although his sacking may have been “inevitable” I don’t think it should have happened, and wouldn’t be necessary if the advisory process was more open, ie advice was given publicly.
234. Punter - wat no watford?
257 Blanchflower is a difficult one - he was spot on in calling for early Int Rate reductions and evidence suggests a larger stimulus, better targetted, might have got us out of recession at the same time as the rest of the G7 big hitters - but we didn;t go down that route because of where we are. That is the bit where Brown made fatal errors in the 01-07 period. Also the actual stimulus chosen was not particularly effective. Blanchflower in his latest interview goes a lot further than I am actually comfortable with - e is suggesting we now go in at a further 50 billion. The horse for me has now bolted. Hence I hope Darling wins out in the argument for the PBR.
As to the rest, c’est la vie. I am amazed at Labour’s inability to find any sort of effective figtback that is not petty, small-minded and spun, they should be going solely on planning for the recovery now, it is the only thing they can argue from. I am depressed at the Tories inability (so far) to show what they will do about Europe. I can see arguments for full democratisation of Europe, at least it is a principle you can take a side on either way, I see no sense in this ‘in Europe but not run by Europe’ position. Ultimately, it will not work.
189 The daily mail had an article giving an indication of Tony Blair’s companies.
Windrush, Windrush 1, Windrush 2, Windrush 3, Firerush, Firerush 1 etc
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1224190/Inside-Blair-Inc-Complex-web-official-duties-secretive-private-companies-business-deals-make-life-No-10-lucrative.html
Why so many companies?
New thread
Just read the BBC report of the Sir Ian Blair interview. He cozies up to Tony Blair, politicises his job, reaps the benefits of that politicisation, then cries fowl when the political winds change and he has to face the consequences. What a cry baby!
128.”Fighting Talk is excellent.”
Plato, not heard of it??