Does the Tory Lisbon referendum row matter?
November 3rd, 2009
Ipsos-MORI October 2009 Issues table
Is the evidence that voters don’t give a monkey’s
I’ve raised this before and will raise it again - the EU and other issues relating to Europe are not things that get voters wound up. The polling suggests that this is very low down on the list of concerns.
Above is the MORI issues index for October - a month that saw several days of the Lisbon treaty being the main political news when the Irish referendum YES coincided with the start of the Tory conference. It was also a month of highly concentrated attacks on the Tories over some of their partners in the EU parliament. If ever there was a period where the EU would register it would have been October.
Yet what happened? Just look at the issues index - which is a unique monthly poll because it is entirely unprompted - and Europe barely registers. To the second question respondents are asked name as many issues as they want and even with this the category it only gets 3%.
The Lisbon treaty debate is only important in what it says about how the parties handle things generally? How are the parties handling it? Do they sound plausible? The issue itself is largely irrelevant.
We should get another round of voting intention polls this weekend and my guess is that things will look broadly the same.
Meanwhile Ladbrokes have put up a couple of new referendum markets. Will there be a vote in 2010, on which you can get 8/1 and what are the chances of a referendum on any EU issue before 2015 - this being a 5/6 shot.
Mike Smithson
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fpt
And another one who understood Cameron in December 07 -
“Mr Cameron repeated his pledge to hold a referendum and campaign for a No vote if the Tories come to power in an early election that takes place before Parliament has ratified the new treaty.”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23411847-cameron-to-lead-the-charge-for-a-public-vote-on-eu-treaty.do
It’s not just the issue itself. If this is, as it appears to be, a case of the media saying “A split! Look!” and then nothing happening, it’s fine. If there is a split then it will damage the party not due to the issue but due to disunity.
For what it’s worth I doubt there will be any sort of real split.
No.
O/T John Rentoul seems to have a different take to many of us on Alan Johnson’s performance lately.
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/195036.html
“this is, as it appears to be, a case of the media saying “A split! Look!” ”
It’s amusing to an extent, since the last supposed split was caused because he hadn’t committed to a referendum post-ratification, and now this one is because he had and u-turned on it.
Media can’t keep their own heads on straight…..
It matters because some voters (including me) eventually stop banging their heads on the tables and reach for the razorblades.
Parties that look split and obsessed with peripheral issues do not do well. David Cameron needs to kick this into touch.
And one from January 08 -
“The Conservative leader made it plain on Sunday that he would pledge a referendum as long as some countries in the EU had not ratified the treaty.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3187787.ece
Why was it easy to understand then but so hard for some folk to get now?
“Why was it easy to understand then but so hard for some folk to get now?”
Indeed.
Top 10 Most Read on BBC,
* Feeling grumpy ‘is good for you’
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* Halloween death family devastated
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-> * Cameron under referendum pressure
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One issue we haven’t really discussed here is how the Eurosceptic papers - especially the Murdoch papers - will react if Cameron sells them out.
I think you can make a reasonable case that it was Gordon Brown’s position on Lisbon that tipped the non-left-wing press from being fairly mixed about him to being almost uniformly negative.
I’m not saying they’re going to suddenly swing behind Brown again, but I could imagine The Times and The Sun from switching from a pro-Cameron position to a “They’re all rubbish” position.
I am reposting this with apologies to those who have read it because it is more relevant to this thread than the last one:
It is fascinating doing some research into the whole EEC/EU debate from the early 1970’s.
So much of the ire about Europe today is based on the modern fallacy that people at the time ‘weren’t told’ that the project was to create a federal superstate.
I get this from UKIP people on the doorstep all the time, they say that Heath ‘misled the nation’ over the EU.
Here is an small piece from a speech Heath gave in 1972, before we ratified the accession treaty, in Brussels:
“But, at the same time, as the enlargement of the Community makes clear beyond doubt, we have all come to recognize our common European heritage, our mutual interests and our European destiny.
What design should we seek for the New Europe? It must be a Europe which is strong and confident within itself. A Europe in which we shall be working for the progressive relaxation and elimination of east/west tensions. A Europe conscious of the interests of its friends and partners. A Europe alive to its great responsibilities in the common struggle of humanity for a better life.
Thus this ceremony marks an end and a beginning. An end to divisions which have stricken Europe for centuries. A beginning of another stage in the construction of a new and greater Europe.”
And in the leaflet that went to every home in Britain in 1975 the very first page stated in bold print:
The aims of the Common Market are:
* To bring together the peoples of Europe.
* To raise living standards and improve working conditions.
* To promote growth and boost world trade.
* To help the poorest regions of Europe and the rest of the world.
* To help maintain peace and freedom
The fact is people were told, but weren’t worried about this in 1973 or 1975 when we were nationally bankrupt and an international laughing stock.
No-one foresaw that possibility that we would promptly elect a Government that would reshape Britains economy and make the country independently powerful enought to manage outside the EU if we wanted to.
I have decided there is a very strong argument in favour of doing exactly what Wilson did in 1974. Making a manifesto pledge to renegotiate better terms *and then* have a referendum with the promise that the Government would recommend a Yes vote (provided of course, that the EU partners concede what the incoming Government wants)
Forgive me, but I find these Euro-threads about as interesting and enlightening as the Osborne-should-be-replaced ‘discussions’ that dominated this site for a while when Brown was saving the world.
Depends if the Tory headbangers shut up or not.
They’d be mad not to, but remember folks, whatever strategy William Hague is behind always falls apart.
3 - Rentoul is right, I can’t believe the group think on here.
No.
Some people will gleefully try to mispresent what Cameron has said on this but (a) he has actually been quite straightforward throughout and (b) he can always turn the attack around on the other parties who promised referendums and then voted against one.
Repost FPT
In the lead up to this moment it looked as though the consequences in Britain might be explosive. But so far it’s not working out that way. David Cameron is under pressure, but not very much beyond various newspaper articles saying he is under pressure. Since leading Tory blog Conservative Home revealed on Sunday that the Tory leader is to ditch his pledge to hold a referendum, the reaction has been very muted.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/11/03/the-week-british-euroscepticism-was-defeated/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
But surely the EU matters rather more because its powers affect so many other, more highly rated, topics such as:
The economy
Terrorism
Foreign relations
Inflation
Immigration
Just because the public don’t currently rate it, doesn’t mean that it won’t affect things that they DO rate quite highly.
I find the headbangers of UKIP and the Tory arch Euro skeptics to be a total electoral turnoff. When you see one of their key supporters is Bill Cash you might understand why.
I guess I must be a typical voter: I cannot be bothered with the issue. If the UK Constitution and Parliament were so wonderful and well run and if our economy was powering ahead, I might feel superior enough to say we can dispense with Europe. But as I see it it is used by a prop by many politicians who in normal circumstances would struggle to be also rans.
Some of the debates on the subject are surreal..
Frankly I could not care less..
re 12. I agree with that Tim - and the evidence from the Tory conference in Manchester is that in this pre-election period they will be very disciplined.
There’s nothing like being close to power to make you more discreet - except,it seems, if you are a Tory committee member in South West Norfolk!
I don’t really think the low rating of Europe on the list of big concerns stops the change of policy on a referendum from being an issue, although it would be a bigger issue if it was a bigger concern. The key point is how Cameron is perceived to handle it.
Personally, I think this is one of those understandable U-turns where Cameron just has to take the hit. Far better to take a few quite shallow cuts and grazes now than plunge yourselves into a nasty battle in the first year of a new Government when you’ve other stuff to deal with.
The issue isn’t weather the voters are bothered by the EU or not (they aren’t generally). Its what effect it has on the Conservatives. If Cameron successfully keeps the lid on all things European, then its not an issue. If he doesn’t and serious dissent breaks out, then it is. I don’t suppose discipline will crack before the election. It will be interesting to see how long it takes afterwards.
18 - Sir Norfolk, once again we are of similar minds. I trusst all is well.
The sad fact is that the single greatest influence on the daily lives of the average UK citizen i.e. the European Union is the thing which s/he considers most irrelevant.
Separately who on earth would call a child Kai Wayne? It is bad enough growing up in a family which makes the Tory selection committee in SW Norfolk look like Oxford dons but honestly, I thought Colleen might have been tempted to give the child a normal name.
9 - The Sun after they dumped Labour said that the only hope for a vote on Lison was before it was ratified.
19 - I agree, Tabman. A lot of Tories expect Cameron to be radical on Europe including a lot of MPs (perhaps particularly the new intake). I think they will be very disappointed very quickly.
19 - “If Cameron successfully keeps the lid on all things European, then its not an issue. If he doesn’t and serious dissent breaks out, then it is”
And twenty odd threads on variations of the same topic is not going to change this.
15
But the chatterati very rarely mention the way the EU impinges on everything we do - they leave it to the smaller parties and then call them ‘nutters’. Until the spotlight falls on the elephant hiding under the table, everything is so much hot air
An analogy:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5499483/cameron-hasnt-broken-a-pledge-on-europe.thtml
20 - I try to thrusst my best foot forward. And yourself?
It’s not a major problem for the Tories, but will undoubtedly ensure that the UKIP vote holds up better at the GE, which may be the difference between a Tory victory and no overrall majority.
21 - I thought the “new” Conservative Party celebrated diversity
The voters don’t give a stuff.
However, as we know from the endless anti-EU rants on this very site, a large number of very vocal Tories do.
Cameron will get away with this (it is pretty much the only sensible way for him to proceed) in the short run, but the right wing will continue to regard him with suspicion and he may need to throw them a bone from time to time. His position has not therefore really altered. The right increasingly hates him, but he will survive as long as he delivers power. Should his grip weaken, they will turn on him with extreme ferocity.
23,FFS,just like alot of lib dems were very disappointed with cleggy ,do you remember him marching is troops out of the commons,what a joke.
27 - very good thanks. We got a good swing a couple of weeks ago in a BE.
re 28. I doubt it. In general election terms UKIP is an irrelevance and will barely register. The idea that all their votes come from Tories is not supported.
Next May 6th, if that is when it is, will be about whether voters want to boot out Gordon Brown and UKIP don’t fit into that narrative.
31 - I’m not entirely sure I understand your point, Johnno. Perhaps it would help if you wrote in proper sentences?
32 Tabman. Notts Swingers Eh ??
BTW with your rowing cap on I’d steer clear of the Embankment in Bedford. Most strange goings on there relating to Lib Dems !!
30. Cicero.
Actually anti-EU rants from Tories here are fairly rare. Hefferites and UKIPpers aren’t Tories.
34 - he’s a true modern Conservative, celebrating diversity in (or is it deviation from?) English. I think the technique is known as “stream of consciousness”.
Hannans pomposity is a joy to watch.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100015529/will-vaclav-klaus-sign/
But there is now a real reason to ask Klaus not to sign.
Daniel Hannan will remain silent on the issue of Europe until Klaus says he’ll sign.
Vaclav, take a holiday, read War and Peace, stroll across the US, discover god.
It’s not a U Turn by Cameron Sir Norfolk dear boy.
Right from the start his pledge was left hanging in the air over the question of what he would do *if* the treaty *was* ratified.
They got away with saying, in effect, “we will cross that one if and when we get there”.
No we are there he is apparently going to tell us tomorrow what he will do now.
I always felt sure that if he intended all along to have a referendum he would have said that from the beginning, so this news comes as no surprise to me.
Still, I am a bit disappointed about it. Sooner or later we must give voters a direct say in the European question, and outside of the see-saw of party political views on the benefits of EU membership which are directly linked to who is in office at the time.
10. Marcus Wood - as another old enough to remember (if not vote in) the Referendum, I think the issue for many of that vintage is that we thought we were going into a ‘Common Market’ - free movement of trade, goods and services (and since no one would be daft enough to want to come to mid-70s Britain), people.
What its turned into is the ‘European Union’ - which goes back to Maastricht, negotiated on Thatcher’s watch, pushed through on Major’s.
Until Lisbon the most Labour had been ‘guilty’ of was signing the Social Chapter and giving back most of the rebate without CAP (as the Economist once described it, ‘a protectionist monstrosity fit only for destruction’) reform. Now Lisbon - a ‘tidying up’ exercise, or another step down the path to superstate?
Looks like the electorate are far more sanguine at the prospect than the Tory blogosphere…..
35 - Jack - loved the earlier JARHEAD, you tease.
My word - what’s happening on the Embankment? My recollection is of the rather disconcertingly low railway bridges you have to pass under.
41 Tabman. You missed yesterdays two JARHEAD episodes ??
Many of things that exite the politicos, don’t excite the electorate.
From Roger Helmer MEP
Mr Helmer said he “fully expects” David Cameron to proceed with a referendum on the Lisbon treaty even if ratified, and added that a no vote would put Britain in a stronger negotiating position.
He said the Conservative leader had “kept his promise” to take the party out of the EPP, and “I fully expect him to keep to his promise on the referendum as well”.
He claimed that a referendum was necessary because it was “a clear commitment” from Mr Cameron, and added that it would put a Conservative government in an “enormously strong negotiating position”.
“The Lisbon treaty exists and it will continue to exist in EU law - we need a mandate to negotiate. I cannot see a clearer mandate than a no vote in a referendum,” he said.
Hmmm wonder what’ll he do if he’s wrong?
CarlottaVance at 40. What we thought is one thing, what we were told is another.
My point is we were told, clearly, what we were getting into but due to our impoverished state at the time, we chose not to listen. We thought the EU would save us.
But then we went and found Mrs Thatcher and she turned out to be a better saviour than the EEC.
That is why the debate has emerged in the way that it has, not that we were misled in 1973 or in 1975 but we joined the EU at the very nadir of our national fortunes, and had we not joined in 1973 we probably would have remained independent to this day.
Either way I remain of the view that the public are overdue to have a say on our EU membership, whatever we were or weren’t clear about in 1973 we have the information now and a new generation of Britons, brought up in a different era, need to have a voice on this.
UK banking giant HSBC has said it is to cut 1,700 jobs in the UK.
I think a summary of today is the Labour broken promises are no longer newsworthy but Cammos are ?
42 - now fully caught up. Alles Klar!
This = student politics,the lib dems smoke-screen for they part in not giving the british people a vote on the lisbon treaty.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Sky-News-Archive/Article/20080641307037
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/legal-and-constitutional/lib-dems-walk-out-of-commons-in-eu-row-$1207790.htm
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Clegg-leads-Lib-Dems39-Commons.3818334.jp
bot pain alert..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5500318/next-step-for-banks-provides-further-vindication-of-osborne.thtml
The unemployment figures are going to be dire leading up to the GE, so no I don’t think the Lisbon row is any more than the media looking for splits.
The USP of the Tory party is ‘Labour - 5 more years?’.
I see that Intrade currently has Christie leading by a nose over Corzine, but my guess is that Corzine will sneak it in the end by virtue of the best GOTV and effort that money can buy, vs. the GOP GOTV effort which is almost entirely an underfunded and far less organized grassroots effort. If Christie can still manage to win in the face of all of Corzine’s cash, GOTV, and blue state advantages, it will be the biggest upset in New Jersey politics for at least a generation (Corzine has outspent all other contenders combined by three to one).
Virginia will be a sweep for the GOP, including the governorship, the attorney general’s office, and the lieutenant governorship. They will also pick up a few seats in the general assembly and keep that body in solid GOP control (the state senate is not up for re-election until 2011).
In New York’s 23rd district, in a special election to replace Obama’s pick for Secretary of the Army, a remarkable result is in the making: a third party candidate winning in a two-party nation. No third party cadidate has been elected in an open seat House contest since the socialist Bernie Sanders was first elected in Vermont in 1988. Like many House districts in the northeast, this seat is traditionally Republican (going back to the Civil War), but also increasingly liberal. It is the northeastern version of the southern districts where everybody is a registered Democrat but votes Republican at the national level. For a third party (Conservative Party) candidate to beat the Democratic candidate in a seat won by Obama last year will, in reality, be a bigger warning signal to Washington than either the Virginia or New Jersey gubernatorial contests.
Finally, in California’s 10th district, as special election is taking place for a solidly blue House seat. Everybody expects California’s Democratic lieutenant governor to win, but the margin in the race could make it a national barometer of interest to political junkies.
Finally, why has the Obama administration made such a huge and overt effort in New Jersey, in particular? I think the sense is that this race could have a big impact on Democratic morale in Washington. The reasoning would go, ‘if we can’t even win with an incumbent and a 3 to 1 spending advantage, how will we win in 2010?’ Fear and panic can spread quickly, undermining Obama’s ability to shepherd his agenda through Congress. This fact, rather than any real impact on 2010 election prospects, is what most worries the administration.
Any of the betting fraternity on here agree with me that the markets and many on here have got the whole Alan Johnson thing the wrong way round completely.
Skimming though the headlines on drugs and immigration, I’d say his position has improved substantially over the last week.
“The USP of the Tory party is ‘Labour - 5 more years?’”
Why are the Mail and the Telegraph so keen on trying to ensure this?
44
Talk about re-writing history.
Mr Macmillan, a weary-looking father figure, at last held out his hand yesterday and offered to try to lead the Commons and the country into Europe, if he can find the way. There was a good deal of kicking and screaming - the phrase was Mr Gilbert Longden’s from the Conservative side of the packed and excited House - and this was to be expected.
The cries of “shame” stabbing through the cheers when the Prime Minister announced that we are making formal application to join the European Economic Community came from both sides. So did the portentously eager applause when he insisted that we shall not take the final step unless our Commonwealth and other obligations can be reconciled, for otherwise the “loss would be greater than the gain.”
Mr Macmillan made it clear that now, after his long contemplation, he wants to go in. He also made it clear why. It might have been a European political community he was talking about. He spoke of the struggle for freedom, and said it was both our duty and our interest to add to Europe’s strength in that struggle.
He spoke sombrely, to Labour and Tory questioners alike, of what might happen if we find that we cannot go in after all. As for his own idea of the chances of success, he told Mr Grimond that he was “not confident, but hopeful.”
It was a memorable day in the Commons all right, bursting with history and drama as vehement, untidy, and sensational as anyone could hope to avoid. Yet how could it have been avoided? There was Europe, economic or political or however you chose to see it. Here were a lot of people who, in spite of the Liberals and Mr Longden, and many others who had been converted long before Mr Macmillan saw the light, were not at all sure that they wanted to go.
Some were sure they did not want to go. There were the kickers and screamers, and none kicked and screamed more violently than Mr Anthony Fell, the Conservative member for Yarmouth, who called Mr Macmillan all sorts of names, including a disaster, and told him in the name of Mr Fell to go.
“Shocking Statement”
Tory back-benchers have attacked Tory Prime Ministers before, but never in such terms as these. A quite shocking statement, Mr Fell called it, full of political double-talk, and its effect on one former supporter - obviously Mr Fell himself - was to convince him that Mr Macmillan was a national disaster.
This whipped the House from a state of excitement into sheer uproar, punctuated by sharp, shocked Tory protests. The Prime Minister surged to his feet and moved to the dispatch box, but Mr Fell had not finished, not by a long way. He would sit down for Mr Speaker, he roared, but not for Mr Macmillan. He had the floor and he kept it.
“His decision to gamble with British sovereignty,” Mr Fell went on, his furious voice rising above the tumult, “and with 650 million people in the British Commonwealth, is the most disastrous thing any Prime Minister has done for many generations past.”
Was there anything more to shout, except a demand that Mr Macmillan should resign? Mr Fell duly made that demand, but not before he had protested against what he saw as Mr Macmillan’s “laughs and smirks.” If Mr Macmillan had indeed anything to smile about - and he was studiously mild in his reply to the ferocious member for Yarmouth - it was over the obvious embarrassment that Mr Fell’s outburst had caused to the more temperate opponents of the Common Market policy in the Conservative Party.
It was easy to be more temperate than Mr Fell, and still tough enough to show how much they worried. There was the ever-persistent Mr Turton, for instance, who wanted to know why we were not proceeding on that article in the Treaty of Rome which allows for a looser association. Mr Macmillan handled him by saying that this would give us all the economic difficulties without giving us any influence in Europe.
Thinks don’t change much do they.
81. well, er, thanks.
I reckon europhiles don’t know how to sell Europe. They should do it on a much more emotional basic level. i.e. When selling it to Brits they should say: Do you want to be a rainy little island destined to 300 years of perpetual relative decline, albeit with quite good television comedy - or do you want to be a SUPERPOWER ONCE AGAIN??
If so: Europe is the answer. Let’s strut our stuff like we did in the 1800s. Let’s beat up little nations for NO REASON WHATSOEVER. Let’s tell America to f*ck off when we feel like it. Let’s say “I come from a country where Paris is only our second greatest city, that’s how f*cking cool my country is!”
That’s how you sell Europe, at least to more primitive and unevolved people (like me). Enough of this “oh its good to get together for climate change” wank.
Sell The Superpower.
by SeanT November 2nd, 2009 at 9:11 pm
WOW LOL, imperalistic megalomaniac……scary bahahaha.
I want true democracy. Hope lies in the smouldering rubble of empires. Heddwch/Peace
No - first it does not matter and second there is no row.
As post 1 says Cameron’s promise on a referendum is clear and most people see one as pointless once Lisbon has been ratified.
Lisbon does create huge problems for the next govt. Just how much interference will it mean and how far will British bureaucrats use it to give themselves more undemocratic power.
Its how the govt react to Lisbon and how the EU use it that matters.
46 Yes the left wing press says Labour can do anything but the Tories can’t. I don’t believe Murdoch is anti-EU.
I just don’t why the Tories draw attention to Labour’s ‘immigration for votes’ policies.
54. Talk about re-writing history.
by coldstone November 3rd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
the british state been good at that bahahah. People telling me merlin and king arthur were english as examples *cries with laughter*
It would only take a relatively small number of tories to vote UKIP (roughly equivalent to he 1-4% of the electorate Mike dismisses too easily above) and a dash of “swingback” for Cameron to be denied an overall majority.
The conspiracy theory that UKIP is a Federalist invention to keep the tories out of power is just that, but might accidentally end up with the same effect if braindead eurosceptic tories are tempted away.
Every vote for UKIP shifts the balance of probability in favour of a Europhile government!
Quick question for any Tories wanting a referendum if lisbon has already been ratified. Presuming there is a ‘no’ vote, what then?
54 It’s usually thought of as good etiquette to link to where you are cutting and pasting from.
47 Tabman. Perhaps when JARHEAD is complete next week, five days after polling (little clue), Mike might care to put the whole little diversion on a link on the right side-bar.
58
The idea that we, ’suddenly’ decided to go into the EEC in the ’70’s because of our economic straits, is just risible.
I believe Edward1 was responsible, he wanted to erase the ’stigma’ of being a Norman, first King after the conquest to have an ‘English’ name. Edward spent a lot of time, proving he was descended from Arthur, (you’d have told him he wasn’t of course) which is why the Round Table is at Winchester Castle, which of course as we all know is the site of Camelot.
“Why are the Mail and the Telegraph so keen on trying to ensure this?”
Same reason the Telegraph tried to run a spoiler on the Damien McBride story - doing Labour’s work for them, perhaps. Alos GB and Dacre of the Mail are pals, compilmentary stories about Sarah brown appear all the time.
One thing for sure, Labour will get very dirty before the election. They’ve nothing left, their record is trashed and the polls indicate that it’s time for a change.
tim @ 52.Yes. I bet Peter the Punter an even £50 that AJ would be Next PM rather than anyone called Milliband.
The bet is void if anyone else,including Cameron is next PM.
Peter the Punter.My email is not working but once again I acknowledge our bet.
52 - In Alan Johnson’s favour: David Miliband looks as though he might be shunted off to the EU. Even if he isn’t, he’s looked as though he might not be that committed to being Labour party leader. That has to shore up Alan Johnson’s ranking in the heirs apparent.
Against Alan Johnson: he did look unconvincing and rattled when interviewed. The drugs story is playing very badly among Guardianistas. Almost as damning for him as the widespread criticism is that the Guardian today wheeled out Anne Widdecombe to back him. This is like the Telegraph getting Ken Livingstone to endorse a left-wing Tory - hardly likely to win over the waverers. While his position is more popular with the red-top readers, that position is taken as read for mainstream politicians and the air of incompetence and lack of control hangs over him. But these stories tend to come and go.
I didn’t see the last week as a game-changer either way. Alan Johnson just doesn’t seem to want the job enough to get it.
61. Perhaps coldstone was simply recalling the occasion in 1962, when he was sitting in the public gallery?
The Tory Party has split in two: the Referendum and the Deferendum factions.
Time for Cameron to step aside and Hague to take over the helm.
Hannan for South West Norfolk and Foreign Secretary designate.
Time to wipe that smirk off timbo’s face.
The punters got very impatient with the Tories under Major because they spent so much effort obsessing about something that didn’t bother most voters.
Now poor Timbot, Labour, and the BBC are desperately hoping that if they obsess about Europe the voters will get impatient with the Tories.
Get real, lefties. The issue that bothers people is that you’ve utterly wrecked the economy and the public finances.
Trying to talk about something else won’t work.
so why if it registers only 3% did UKIP do so well. my view is that people do not like the tories much either and are desperate to vote for someone, anyone, with honesty and integrity.
a poll question saying, “if there was another centrist party you could vote for other than the tories would you vote for them if they were honest and did not claim excessive expenses/”; it might win in a landslide!
69, speak for yourself. The fact that my as yet unborn children will probably reach pension age before we pay back Labour’s debt is insignificant compared to the fact that Cameron has broken a promise he never made.
52 tim - Yes, I tend to your view, at least to an extent. I’m not sure it’s a big shift, but I do think AJ4PM is slightly more likely now than it was two weeks ago. It looks as though he might be deliberately pushing himself forward on populist themes.
Clearly if D. Miliband does swan off to higher things then that would leave only Johnson, E. Miliband and Harman (and maybe at a push Straw or Darling). Of those, AJ would in my view be the clear favourite for a pre-GE change. However, if, as is likely, DM doesn’t get the EU sinecure then I’d say he remains the pre-GE favourite.
I still think Brown is fairly firmly glued in, however.
63. Aye its all lies and a lot of old bowls ;). apologies for the random example just some people think here in Britain we are immune to this. The school cirriculum is terrible as someone whos welsh but is part of the so called ‘lost generation’ (relatives were almost monglot welsh) as a first language language english speaker I am being deprived of learning weslh heritage and history.
TO quote john prescott: ‘there is no room in schools for local history’, this is one reason I will be glad to see the back of New labour
65 It’s OK, URW. As between proper punters and their bookies, no ticket necessary. I will email though, just for the record.
66 - The interesting stuff is the immigration, more so than the drugs.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5hMNT8vnEGH6GMTKv41qRJ-seMCXg
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6900552.ece
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/simon-carr/simon-carr-johnson-sparkles-as-brown-crumbles-1813618.html
Coldstone. We tried and failed to agree terms in 1962 because our terms weren’t prepared to be met by the rest of the EU. At that time we felt strong enough alone not to concede too much.
Much weaker, in 1967, Wilson opened and abandoned talks again because he would have had to concede more than his party would agree to.
Even weaker still we eventually joined in 1973.
It wasn’t a sudden thing, but the decision and the terms were driven and shaped by our economic weakness, as the debate at the time proves.
Had we had the Thatcher years *before* joining, I don’t believe we would have ever seen the need to join.
10. There is nothing very explicit in those statements about joining a superstate. You could read it any way you like.
30. As we know, however, you care very strongly about this issue. I don’t actually think most of the Right of the party does hate Cameron, but they’ll certainly demand red meat if the Conservatives win big next year (as I expect).
33 I think UKIP will poll well, for a minor party, but will have very limited impact in marginal constituencies. Their best results (apart from Devon and Cornwall) will come in safe seats.
70, fictional parties are always popular. The fact is that we live in an imperfect world. Our choices are simple:
Labour: ruined the economy, lied on a referendum, underfunded and overused the armed services
Lib Dems: spread their legs and giggle when the EU is mentioned, and have Mystic Vince telling us he foretold swine flu in his 19th century epic poem Ye Olde Porcine Pestilence
Tories: No, they aren’t super popular. But they do appear far more competent than either of their main rivals and aren’t hated.
If you have a choice between drinking a bucket of sick, a bucket of poison, or some ginger beer, you go for the ginger beer even if you don’t like it very much.
54
61
If only! that was from the Guardian archive.
There is an element within the Conservative Party, (the left of Labour Party once felt the same way for different reasons) who will never, never accept our membership. They see themselves as Churchill like figures destined to save the nation from the appeasers. They’ll lie low till after the GE, but will then cause Cameron problems, just like they caused Major.
It’ll be fun!
I saw some of Johnson in the HoC yesterday and thought he did fine. Nutt threw his toys out of the pram because his advice wasn’t followed, but there’s more to it than the science.
I do agree that Johnson looked a very odd colour. Cecil PArkinson was just that colour. Is Postman Prat perchance a rabid boozer?
70 People on the Right of the political spectrum will vote UKIP for other reasons as well as Europe. And, 3% is still 850,000 or so voters, which I think is the sort of figure UKIP will get next year.
75 - It’s the drugs that are still being talked about.
76 - In fact wasn’t the reason for both the failures in the 1960s quite simply De Gaulle’s veto which he would have cast whatever the UK might have agreed. He never forgave us for World War Two.
“fictional parties are always popular.”
LDs at 16% with yougov suggests otherwise ?
83, really not up on WWII, but what part didn’t he forgive us for? Saving France, or letting the Germans conquer it in the first place?
85 - The ambiguity was deliberate and mischievous: naturally, it was the former.
67 History Boy
Don’t knock coldstone. His skills are needed. Putin is threatening to turn off the gas supply to Europe, if The Ukraine doesn’t pay its gas bill. A meter by-pass op will have to be carried out round the back of Kiev.
Treasury team on BBC Parliament. Darling is flanked by two pug uglies! Is this the ugliest Treasury team ever?
85
De Gaulle always felt he wasn’t given the respect he was due, (surprising) Churchill once said, ‘Of all the crosses I have to bear the heaviest by far is the cross of Lorraine’
De Gaule also thought we were to closely intertwined with the US.
87
I’m just waiting for the call!!
85 Morris
Churchill snubbed him during the war, or so I believe.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100015489/10-reasons-why-it-wont-be-so-bad-when-the-tories-get-in/
re 84. I’ll bet you that ICM will be closer to YouGov for the final LD share. It’s all down to the weightings which YouGov employs
Tories have spent the last 18 months or so pretending there was a substantive difference between Labour’s position - a position based on betraying a promise - and the Tory position - and now they’ve stopped pretending. Cameron’s word will be seen to be as worthless as Brown’s.
It’s not the words in some Sun article that matters it’s the 18 months of “we won’t let it rest there” being a total lie.
81 - It would be quite a good one to open a book on, as Paddy Power has done on BNP votes. Last time, UKIP stood in 496 seats and picked up 606,000 votes. I would suggest they’ll do a shade worse due to the some of their supporters being inclined to hold their noses and vote Cameron whereas there was no real point under Howard or Hague.
Re 70 Well that bit about the expenses might be a bit tough for UKIP which is hardly whiter than white in this area.
80 John R
Is Postman Prat perchance a rabid boozer?
He acted tired and emotional and his cheeks were rosy red. Perhaps he got hold of the keys to tim’s wine cellar whilst the latter was holidaying in Bury St Edmunds?
93. There’s always a biter
If ICM are to believed then is there a possibility of LDs polling a higher national share than Labour ? If so why is there not a market ? 10/1 ish ?
91 Churchill also sank the French navy and about a 1000 of its sailors in a brave and probably right move but it of course upset the french!!
Vaguely on topic, I got 25/1 for Mandelson as EU High Representative with Ladbrokes this morning. Possibly not the greatest of value (I had hoped for at least 33/1) but still I think worth taking.
A Brit is clearly viable as Miliband has been talked of and if the Council presidency does go to the centre-right then the EUHRFA will be centre-left. Mandelson has EU experience and was apparently well thought of there (though a good deal of that may be his own spin). It’s rumoured that he wants to be UK Foriegn Sec but chances are he’d only be that for a few months and as he’s now bagged his peerage, what’s to stop him going back to Brussels?
91
wasn’t the last straw that broke the camels back something to do with free french forces liberating some islands (cant remember where ) and Churchill/Roosevelt didn’t know? IIRC Churchill and Roosevelt were both furious.
62 - Jack, that would be great, together with a sumamr of the positions you’ve taken on it? IIRC £10k being mooted.
99, oh I do know the approximate circumstances of that. It would’ve fallen into German hands if Churchill hadn’t sunk it, right?
101. St Pierre et Miquelon, I think.
101
Roosevelt hated De Gaulle and could never understand why Churchill tolerated him.
95 Sir Norfolk - I wonder if they’ll contend as many seats next time, given their financial position.
33.”Next May 6th, if that is when it is, will be about whether voters want to boot out Gordon Brown and UKIP don’t fit into that narrative.”
Mike, are you leaning towards a May GE date?
74…Peter,i too remember such times.
95 I agree. My reasons for thinking they’ll do better are:-
(a) expectation of a comfortable Tory victory will make it easier for right wing voters in safe Conservative seats to vote UKIP (even if it depresses their vote in marginals)
(b) better organisation than four years ago. This is starting to show up in local election results.
(c) more support from among Labour’s core voters. Many of those voters regard the Conservatives as their hereditary enemies. It can be easier for them to switch to UKIP or BNP, than Conservative (most of UKIP’s County Council wins were from Labour).
103 well that was the worry . The French promised that they would scuttle it if the Nazis looked like taking the ships but Churchill could not trust them to do this given how huge a blow it would have been had they fallen to german hands
89 - I think your final point is the right one. It’s very common in Britain to put De Gaulle’s opposition to British membership as some kind of personal grudge but I don’t think that’s right.
De Gaulle believed in autonomous European foreign and military policy as an alternative to NATO while we were wedded to piggy-backing on the US’s nuclear capability as the only way to see off the Soviets. De Gaulle also believed Britain would be half-hearted members, partly due to the US link.
As it happens, De Gaulle was probably wrong on the first point and right on the second. But I’m not sure it had much to do with a poor personal rapport with Churchill who was long gone by this time.
99
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-K%C3%A9bir
The sinking.
85, 99 - IIRC DeGaulle was only a Colonel in 1940. He became leader of the Free French by virtue of being “over here” as oposed to “over there”, didn’t he?
ALso, in addition to the Oran episode, British and COmmonwealth Forces fought several battles with the Vichy French, not least in Syria and Lebanon in 1941.
101 That actually seems unlikely because the Free French didn’t control any sea lift capability, so it’s not obvious how they could have done that.
104 TYVM
Yes I had an idea they were off Canada.
From Wiki
Under orders from de Gaulle, Admiral Émile Muselier organised the liberation of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, without the consent or knowledge of the Canadian and U.S. authorities. On 24 December 1941, a Free French flotilla led by the submarine cruiser Surcouf took control of the islands without resistance, and installed Alain Savary as Governor. De Gaulle had a referendum organised, which was favourable to him, and Saint-Pierre and Miquelon thus became one of the first French territories to join Free France. The affair led to a lasting distrust between De Gaulle and Roosevelt.[3]
Good news for coldstone:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8339647.stm
85 - liberating France after they had just managed to learn the words to Horst Vessel.
114 They did.
106 - Possibly not, although UKIP do still have some big backers - debt may become a problem for them but cashflow isn’t so much of a difficulty (i.e. they will be able physically to get hold of five hundred notes in five hundred constituencies which is more of a challenge say for the BNP).
111 We ought to have taken the hint from De Gaulle that we weren’t welcome.
100 David H - Yes, that occurred to me too. Of course, by any standard Mandy would be infinitely superior to Miliband. However, Mandy also made quite a lot of enemies in the EU by his relatively strong position on free trade. Still, maybe worth 25-1.
103
Mers el Kebir
We didn’t sink much but we killed quite a few French sailors.
French military trying to be politicians…
Sky News reporting that
SantaKlaus has signed the Lisbon Treaty.beeb LauraK tweets..
Czech president says he has signed the EU treaty - over to you Mr Cameron… announcement on Tory policy expected tomorrow
I suspect those poll stats Mike publishes above are highly misleading. In the midst of a vile recession you really would have to be some kind of anti EU obsessive to place the issue at the top of your list of priorities. However strong support for anti EU parties at the last Euro election suggest there is a solid nucleus of voters both of the right and left who dislike the EU. The Lib Dems are suffering in the SW because of their pro EU stance. I think some kind of referendum can only be a good thing given that it is 34 years (and another world) since our elected representatives have dared to allow the electorate to have any kind of say on this issue.
124. Kelly day tomorrow too - good day to bury etc ?
124 LTL
Sky reporting Cameron will hold news conference at 4.00 p.m. tomorrow.
127, tim’ll be there, tissues in one hand, lotion in the other
Go on, Cameron, declare war on France!
Could anyone supply a link for polling data on British attitudes to the EU in general? How people would vote in a referendum on the treaty or how people would vote on an ‘in/out’ referendum?
Funny how climate change doesn’t appear on that list, yet MPs treat that with more importance than the EU, which does.
Also interesting that 7 out of the top 10 concerns have an EU influence behind it. It’s not that people are not concerned about the EU it’s that they are largely ignorant of its omnipotent power.
113. IIRC he was a general de brigade at the time.
128 Morris Dancer
Do the French still have a fleet to sink?
On 5 Live too. Klaus has signed. Let the fun begin.
What was de Gaulle on about? We didn’t invade Poland.
Reading ‘Spitfire’ by Leo McKinstry (a v. good read), there were several references to rather exhausted Hurricane pilots at northern French airfields during the blitzkrieg, wondering why they were fliying half a dozen sorties a day and lots of French fighters were lined up doing nothing. Also the statistic that at the start of the Battle of Britain France had a larger number of modern fighters in reserve in North Africa than the RAF had in total facing the Luftwaffe.
Shove it up, mon General.
132 It’s bigger than ours IIRC.
Let’s all not forget the reason the Conservatives are in this position now is that Labour sold the country down the river.
They knew they would lose a referendum and that the best way to cause the Tories pain would be to pass the constitution without one. They have put political advantage ahead of their promises and British sovereignty.Any bragging now from a Labour perspective is utterly shameless.
I look forward to seeing what Cameron will propose tomorrow but a refendum on Lisbon now is pointless. We probably ought to have a thorough reassessment of and debate on our relationship with Europe.
129 - Mori has some stats here which show a pretty steady 55/45 split in favour of continued membership since the 1970s: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2435&view=wide
There are also stats on joining the Euro, which again are pretty steady historically at 30/70 against: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=78&view=wide
I find the steadiness of these polls (there are blips of course) quite interesting.
136, many thanks
76. That is correct Marcsus - Britain’s decision to join was largely the result of her economic weakness and the profound defeatism that led to among the British ruling elite.
The public went along with it for much the same reasons, hoping that somehow it would be a magic bullet for our economic woes.
We then proceeded to solve those economic problems on our own but by then the pass was sold…
115 Ah, that would figure: Vichy-controlled islands off Canada. I was thinking in terms of French ability to mount an opposed landing, which I think would have been nil or close to it.
130 - Surely it’s listed as “pollution/environment”?
134
I think that was one of the cries of anguish when Labour announced it’s latest naval cuts
134, pah. Like Sarkozy wearing heels, a bigger navy doesn’t make the sailors any better.
Klaus signs
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5A232U20091103
141
Why did I write “it’s” ?
(wanders off, muttering)
Interesting about the French Fleet, I am currently reading ‘Alone’ the second volume of Churchills 1947 account of the war and have just read the June/July section regarding the French Fleet.
We only attacked a small section of the Fleet in North Africa because negotiations with the local commander broke down. French camptains were given three options by the British, sail to a neutral port and disable, hand over your ship to the British or scuttle where you are; if none of these are done you will be treated as an enemy vessel and attacked.
In most other places outside Frances own ports the crews accepted one of the other options.
Churchill says the attack on the French was one of the hardest decisions he was called on to make and yet it sent a clear and important signal worldwide that the British were deadly serious about holding out against the Nazis at a time just weeks after Dunkirk when most international observers expecte the Uk to sue for peace.
142. Like the old joke about the French navy adopting a new motto:
“A l’eau, c’est l’heure”.
Mike I have a comment in moderation can you release it for me?
127 - thanks Seth, I’m trying to do some cleaning and listen at the same time.. failing miserably.
143. This is good news, as now it will not be enough for the Conservatives merely to stop Lisbon as before.
They will now have to renegotiate a significant repatriation of powers to the UK and make Britain’s semi-detached status much more clearly defined.
Dan Hannan.
Complete and utter tool.
It all comes down, as expected, to one man. Václav Klaus finds himself, like the protestor at Tiananmen Square exactly 20 years ago, standing alone against the tanks. Will he scramble out of their path at the last moment?
President Klaus is a clever man and, unlike the majority of its supporters, he has read the Lisbon Treaty. He knows perfectly well that the proposed protocol is meangingless. He understands, too, the magnitude of what is at stake. This is his once-in-a-lifetime chance to side with the peoples against the apparatchiks, to be a hero on a continent where they are in short supply. As President, he has an unambiguous veto over foreign treaties. And he takes seriously his oath of office, wherein he swore to uphold the constitution of the republic.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100015529/will-vaclav-klaus-sign/
“Inside track Dan” The man in the know Dan Hannan posted that at 13.55 PM Today.
Wonder what time Klaus signed.
131 - he was indeed a Brigadier. Whether that is a General is a moot point!
75. Tim - yes, Immigration is getting Johnson some coverage, today The Sun Says:
“SECRETS & LIES” Alan Johnson’s “confession” over mass immigration is as cynical as they come.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
Never mind, there’s coverage on the Nutt-sack too, north of the border (with the best or worst headline so far):
“SACKINGS A NUTT-ER DISGRACE” THE Government’s anti-drugs initiative is in chaos….
http://tinyurl.com/yebmnlo
But you’re right…the good ship Johnson sails on…..
New thread on election date rumours
146 - say “please”.
148,we hope.
148 - Or they might just not bother. That’s the option I’d guess they’ll go for.
142
I believe a RN Captain addressed a similar remark to the Commanding Officer of a USN ship as the two vessels passed near Suez (c 1934) (obviously excluding references to stacked heels…)
I don’t think it mattered what happened in WWII, because all Europeans will perish as soon as Turkey joins the EU (which it will do).
Labour’s ‘mass immigration for votes’ all backed up by the violent UAF and anglophobic Searchlight organisations make it difficult to stop.
The real enemies of the UK are the same as the real enemies of other European nations. The lefties of each nation are the dangerous self serving traitors that want to bring us all down.
I am not a member of the BNP, but do believe Nick Griffin to be correct on immigration. Many people on this site believe the Nick Griifin achieved nothing from the QT interview - they are wrong. just see all the comments in the Daily Mail, and joe public what they think. I don’t like to admit it but I think the BNP are starting to win me over, at least on immigration.
Why has there been a media silence on immigration for so long, and why is that as soon as anyone questions it they are branded as a racist by default? Why does the government support terrorist organisations like the UAF and Searchlight. Why do the media (both left and right) rely on missinformation from the Searchlight leader Gerry Gable who is a proven liar.
If you look into the history of Mr Gable - attempted robbery, attempted murder and he ensures that Israel does not become multicultural. What a hypocrit!!!!
The enemies of the UK are the UAF, Searchlight, the Labour Party and some MPs from other political parties.
People are waking up to this and the EU issue is not important compared to economy and mass immigration/race relations.
149 - Has Dan been taking style pointers from our own Seant? They dont read very differently.
143 - This is bad news for those who got notes added to the treaty, they will be stuffed if we don’t get the powers back we want as the next treaty will be voted down by the UK, and the notes will mean nothing.
A very powerful position to ensure that all our demands are met.
Even in the late 1960’s De Gaulle was still banging on about “freeing” Quebec from the Anglo-Canadian yoke.
89 - coldstone, check your facts. The Cross of Lorraine quote was said by General Spears, the liaison officer with de Gaulle. See, e.g. Martin Gilbert, In Search of Churchill, p.232 where he apologises for attriubting it to Churchill in the first edition of his biography.
By the way, if only 1% or 3% of the electorate think Europe is an issue, how come UKIP - a single issue party if ever there was one - scored 15% or whatever it was in the Euro elections?
120. If Heath hadn’t won in 1970 would we have ever gone in? Would Thatcher have applied in the early 1980s?
123. F*ck.
Its not about the average Joe when it comes to the EU, it is more about DC’s rightwing base support. He cannot afford to lose votes in marginals to the likes of UKIP, this would cost seats. This is DC’s problem. Even if it is not a major issue for the everyday person, it is a major issue internally and that is going to determine how DC reacts.
135 Alistair
We probably ought to have a thorough reassessment of and debate on our relationship with Europe.
The key to Cameron achieving successful reform of the EU lies with the ECR alliance. The UK are likely to achieve far more in negotiation if we are part of a group which has a platform for change that is clear, consistent, feasible and popular. The group should also be stable and growing.
The first task for Cameron and Hague must be to stabilise the ECR group and ensure it is provided with adequate resources to develop and communicate consistent policies.
The threat of the ECR to the EU status quo has been demonstrated by Milliband’s and Labour’s smear campaign designed to destabilise the group.
Cameron should use tomorrows PMQs and ask Brown 6 times “did the Labour party not promise the British people, as part of their 2005 election manifesto, that they would offer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty - yes or no?”
asking this same question 6 times, without Brown answering would make every news outlet tomorrow evening and every newspaper the morning after ! Cameron needs to show real anger in his questioning.
None of this matters at the moment. Manchester shows the level of disapline and thirst for power the Tories have. However it will matter in 3 years time. Most the rabid europhobia on the right is theological as much as it is policy based. Any ” betrayal ” by Cameron over Lisbon however far fetched or contrived will serve as the neccessery ” Foundation Myth ” that the warrior priests will need to sustain their long war againast Cameron.
I have said it before and I will again. One of the most bizzarre events of the next political cycle might well be UKIP winning a certain sort of english Westminister By Election in a rural seat you might expect the Lib Dems to do well in.
The conservatives in government will have to contend for the first time with a rightish, non racist english nationalist party that can draw some blood.
167 UKIP are not an English Nationalist Party, they are UK nationalist party!
JARHEAD - Day Twenty Eight
Timeline : Tuesday 4th May 2010. 16.47pm
Location : The Thames Embankment. London SW1.
Dramatis Personae : Major Roderick Derry-Smythe and Mike Smithson.
…………………………………………………………
Major Roderick Derry-Smyth slowly paced the situation room and glanced at his watch for the umpteenth time in the past five minutes. He didn’t want to be late not for this meeting. But he had to wait for the latest sitrep from Afghanistan to hit the wires. The satellite link came back to life. A grim faced half colonel filled in some back detail and then announced two more names, a private and a staff sergeant.
The news of the dramatic losses was still only just filtering through to the media but none of the networks had yet fully grasped the nature of the military disaster that had befallen British troops earlier that day. Most outlets thought the total loss was four or possibly five. None had the slightest notion that the total dead was twenty seven. Two ambushes, a helicopter rescue that crashed and a video of the two week captured British serviceman being paraded by the Taliban. It was the worst day in British military history in decades.
The MoD was desperate to slow the release of news of the disaster being as it was only hours before the second leaders debate. The government was equally aware of the dramatic impact this event would have. The links from the MoD to Downing Street were hot, very hot.
Major Rod left the MoD to take the ten minute walk to the Embankment clasping a large manilla envelope between a copy of the Daily Telegraph. He walked briskly, assured but with a sense of destiny raging through his wiry frame.
Mike Smithson had been waiting in a cafe close to the Embankment sipping his ninth Darjeeling tea of the day. For almost thirty minutes before the appointed time he waited. He didn’t want to be seen lingering at the rendevous, it had to be a short direct meeting, over before it had begun. It was.
Minutes later Rod saw Mike sitting on the designated bench with a copy of the Telegraph next to him. Rod sat down, exchanged the copies of the Telegraph and took out his mobile and dialed a number and walked back to the MoD.
Mike walked deeper into Westminster. His next meeting was brief but chilling. Mike read the military summary and choked at the second paragraph and the appendix of twenty seven names. He took his copy. Mike had a little over two hours to return to Bedford for the start of the second leaders debate and cope with the pressure that would fall on his brain child - PB.com
In every sense it would be a truly dramatic night.
132. Seth
“Do the French still have a fleet to sink” ?
Do the British still have the means to sink the French fleet” ?
All the issues that people list above the EU are affected by the EU in one way or another. When you factor in how much our EU membership (and consequently further integration via Lisbon) affects Immigration, Race Relations, Crime & Disorder, Foreign Policy and just about everything else, the EU probably moves to second place. And if we had the Euro, it’d move to first place.
168. Cameron can still turn this around.
See HERE
I am sorry but I do not understand this new position. The Tories promised us a referendum and they should honour it - simple as that. If the people do not agree with Lisbon then the Tories will have to deal with that and renegotiate - they promised us one and if any integrity remains in Westminster they will have to honour it. I cannot believe they have got themselves into this position - it all is very sad
“For a third party (Conservative Party) candidate to beat the Democratic candidate in a seat won by Obama last year will, in reality, be a bigger warning signal to Washington than either the Virginia or New Jersey gubernatorial contests.”
Snigger, you really can’t help yourself can you. An extebded look by GOP supporters at their own shell of a party is needed yet they still can’t face doing so. A democrat hasn’t won in that area for decade upon decade, it’s purely a right vs hard right matter now and the moderates are sadly losing.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think the Conservatives no longer offering a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is going to make a huge impact on the next election. It’ll upset a few die hard Conservatives who follow politics avidly and who are very Eurosceptic. They’ll make a lot of noise and threaten to vote UKIP. But the very thought of Labour possibly winning again (or of a hung parliament) is likely to bring (some of) them back on board with the Conservatives come the election.
As for the rest of the electorate: Labour are so loathed in England, especially the south, that they’ll vote Conservative regardless of the position on the Lisbon Treaty as it’ll mean Labour have no chance of getting back into power. I’m just hoping Scotland and Wales go for the kill as well and we can sing with joy of the passing of the awful and incompetent Labour party.
Why are people blaming Cameron for this? He said consistently that a referendum would be held IF the treaty was not ratified. If he held one in June 2010 and we voted No (as we should) what would happen? Nothing - it’d be an expensive opinion poll. The treaty is enshrined into EU law which is now superior to British Law and WE CAN’T DO ANYTHING UNLESS ALL OTHER MEMBER STATES agree.
Why is this so hard to understand? We can’t hold a referendum on an enshrined treaty.
Where’s Global Warming on the list?
Now that Lisbon is an accomplished fact, surely it’s better for concerned citizens to make use of those democratic avenues available to us instead of boycotting the serious debate on Europe? See for example this article, http://tinyurl.com/yhopcne - an online campaign - the Right2Bet Campaign - hoping to be the first to utilise Lisbon’s “Citizens Initiative” provision. Grassroots campaigns like this can and will make a difference in the new Europe, of that I am sure.