YouGov now have a 14 point Tory lead
November 5th, 2009
CON 41%(nc)
LAB 27%(-1)
LD 17%(+1)
And 73% want the troops out of Afghanistan
A new 1,021 sample YouGov poll for Channel 4 where the fieldwork took place yesterday and today has a slightly increased Tory lead the result of Labour slipping a notch to 27% and the Lib Dems increasing by one point.
The total for “others” is at 16% but we do not know what the breakdown of that figure is. Even the detailed data released this evening does not specify what UKIP and the BNP, in particular, were recording. So all within the margin of error but from Labour perspective the trend is in the wrong direction.
The firm’s online polling panel filled in their questionnaires when the political news was dominated by the Tory change on the Lisbon referendum, the charges that they had broken a “cast iron guarantee”, and of course the tragic news from Afghanistan of the five killings by a policemen within a secure compound.
So the first conclusion is that the Tories don’t seem to have been damaged by the abandonment of the Lisbon treaty pledge in spite of fierce criticism being reported both from within their ranks and outside - perhaps reinforcing the point that very few voters regard Europe and EU-related issues as central to their view of the coming election.
The big news from Channel 4’s point of view is the response to the Afghanistan question. A total of 35% said all troops should be brought home immediately, 38% wanted withdrawal in “the next year or so”, and just 20% saying that they should continue there as long as the Afghan government wants them there.
Amongst the 55+ age group 77% wanted withdrawal either now or within the next year or so. There wasn’t that much of a split between party supporters on the question.
Normally YouGov polls have a sample of about 2,000. This latest survey is very much akin to the tracker polls carried out during the party conferences.
Update: Rounding and the “Others” total The figure for others was taken from the detailed data. The reason this does not add up to 100% is because of rounding.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First
Damn!
My first ever ‘first’!
And I’ve always despised people for doing it
4 - There’s nothing to be proud about coming first, as many women have told me.
Withdrawal 73%
Stay 20%
No strategy, more deaths to come, country bankrupt.
Any party that supports the status quo at the election will be shooting itself in the foot.
5 - How did the wedding go? Should you be here?
re 5. Boasting again. Is this something you would tell the selection panel in South West Norfolk?
7 - It went very well. Though I did manage to upset her the night before.
I’m allowed to browse the web whenever she’s asleep. Is the rules.
16% for others, if maintained, means this coming GE will not be like the last few GE’s.
Ukip and the BNP repectively can and will damage the Tory and Labour parties respectively. and could the Greens make inroads to the L/Dems. This grows more intriguing day by day.
I’ve been rethinking my view on Afghanistan, I was uncomfortable about being there at all given the mission creep/random objectives we’ve been told about.
I’ve now decided that we should pull out. The Karsai election crap and lack of other practical NATO partner involvement has changed my mind.
Bring our boys and girls home. In helicopters that we don’t have, and Land Rovers that are useless against their real IED threat.
Grr.
9 - Oh dear. Glad it went well.
8 - To (mis)quote Winston Churchill, I’m a modest man, and I have a lot to be modest about.
8 - Talking about Norfolk, how will the non employment of family members by MP’s affect MP’s from Norfolk?
Surely they’d struggle with that proviso of the Kelly recommendations.
10 - Others won’t get 16% or anything like it in the GE.
This from The Guardian article linked on the last thread:
‘The French politician has made it clear he thought he had been speaking off-the-record and had not expected his comments to be reported in The Guardian newspaper.’
Oh dear. The Guardian continues its decent into the gutter.
9. Really Screaming! On your wedding night?
Ah well, such is youth.
Out of curiousity how many poll in a row is this,that’s had the Tories polling at least 40?
The Tory numbers have seemed very consistent this year.
FPT on PBR.
Just wondering if Squeaky still has his mole at the Treasury. There was news during the conference season that a Treasury official resigned and was offered a position with Team Squeaky. Was he / she the mole or a disgruntled civil servant?
17 - No the night before, I would never upset her on the wedding night.
15. Notice I said if maintained. Please read the text.
Once again showing that wanking on about the EU is simply not an election issue.
POUKIPWAS.
I do love the idea put forward by Roger on the previous thread that people are reassured when they don’t see Brown as they think he is getting on with the job…..
19 - No the mole is still digging in the Treasury by all accounts.
Over 70% wanting troops out is unsunstainable for maintaining a presence. Does anyone know what the figures are in the US?
This poll should hurry Nick Clegg change of stance on Afghanistan along.
22 - POUKIPWAS…? Err, do I want to know what it means ?
TSE 18.Out of curiousity how many poll in a row is this,that’s had the Tories polling at least 40?
23 30 Sept YouGov was 37
Once again, though, we see Dave being 100% vindicated, and all those who underestimated him *again* looking like idiots.
27 - Poor Old UKIP What a shame?
25 ASOD:
“As the administration’s review continues, 57 percent of those polled approve of how Obama is carrying out his duties as commander in chief, but confidence in his leadership on the Afghan war has eroded since the spring. In previous polls, Obama received some of his highest ratings in relation to his dealings with Afghanistan, including 63 percent approval in April of his handling of the situation there. In the latest poll, 45 percent approve, down 10 percentage points in the past month alone, and 47 percent disapprove, an increase of 10 points. Nearly a third of those surveyed say they strongly disapprove.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/20/AR2009102003780.html
27 I’ve been trying to guess blah blah UKIP blah blah blah - bit like those dog cartoons!
Of to supper, and then to finish my book “1918″ by Gregor Dallas.
25, 26 - Just because someone wants something it doesn’t make it the right thing to do. This is one of those issues where politicians should lead rather than follow.
28 - Thank you. I had it in my head that Tories havent polled sub 40 since a rogue poll during the Euros?
31
Cheers and Oh dear. Vietnam again unless something changes soon.
35 - The Tories need to be polling at least 70% at this stage in a Parliament to have any chance of forming a majority government, TSE.
34 - I didn’t say if it was right or wrong, but as I said on the previous thread I strongly suspect the Lib Dem will go with a hasty withdrawal policy for the GE. This kind of poll can only increase the chances of it and how soon they reveal it.
The frothers on ConHome will be so disappointed.
No surprise that things haven’t changed. One of the reasons is that, despite what Mike keeps posting, voters quite rightly will see that there was no ‘abandonment’ of any Lisbon Treaty pledge by the Tories.
But what is I think significant is that, as with the Tory conference and the issue of spending cuts, Cameron has managed to take a strategic step forward on Europe, without losing support. One more potential minefield - the last big one that is foreseeable in advance - has been nimbly side-stepped.
Noting that Yougov are showing higher Labour shares than most of the polling companies. I suspect the real picture is as the ICM with Labour on 25 and the Tories on 42.
I do expect PB’ s poll next week to be showing Con 42 Lab 23 Lib 20.
I do expect Populus to show Con 42 Lab 26 Lib 20
I do expect ICM to show Con 44 Lab 25 Lib 20
write these figures down !
37 You splitter!
38 - Yes it would be so easy if they do to make snide comments about yellow being an appropriate colour for them.
@40:
It’s difficult not be awed by his skills as a politician.
A Conservative leader, soon to be Prime Minister, is carrying his party on Europe! How times change.
31.Obama is dithering right now, and that is a huge mistake. This is not helped by Brown waiting to see what he does instead of being more assertive about his own position. And the Taliban have spotted the vacuum and are making a concerted effort to influence the situation.
@39:
It’ll be enough to make them froth!
Tim really needs to do something about the UKIP loons that troll ConHome threads. They really lower the tone.
34.James, that is what we are lacking right now, leadership from Obama and Brown.
46 - From what I’ve seen I suspect he has some sympathy with the UKIP loons.
Crosby Yougov probabilistic
Con 355
Lab 208
LD 45
SNP 14
PC 5
Oth 5
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Con maj 65, 2.1% swingback to Hung Parliament
Plato, 11 -
The govt have grossly mismanaged Afghanistan. It has given troops too much to do and totally left the nation unprepared about the consequences. The Army may be partly to blame, but the govt are supposed to be politicians for Gods sake.
By exposing troops to unnecessary casualties it has exposed its whole effort to defeat. Total incompetence.
Those of us not of a Tory persuasion are eagerly waiting for the fightback. Maybe the Tories have peaked too early? The Tory advance has certainly stalled.
I’m looking forward to seeing Labour’s election strategy. It’s time it was revealed.
@48:
Maybe, but he can’t be happy about the way they clog up and hijack every single discussion with even the tiniest Euro-tinge?
47 - Well Obama has to dance with the ones who brung him who are largely the pacifist shade of opinion. Brown is just a dithering bottler.
btw, Others would be 15%, not 16%, Mike.
@51:
I assume you’re being sardonic with your reference to a “fightback”.
By my reckoning, we’ve had so many we’ve lost count. The last two (the one launch at Gordon’s conference speech, and the one launched the day before we were supposed to come out of recession) lasted less than a day each.
“Tim really needs to do something about the UKIP loons that troll ConHome threads”
I’m not sure he cares. They are closer to his viewpoint, and allows his polls to come out closer to what he wants and claim it’s what all Tories really feel.
“eagerly waiting for the fightback.”
Don’t worry. Number 8 is bound to be along shortly. Maybe this one will work. Although I doubt it.
46 - Do they make you wear an orange jump suit while you’re locked in there with them during the day?
45 - The UK position is dependent on the US position as we are junior partners in the coalition.
You’ll find Cameron and Fox will think the same.
“I’m looking forward to seeing Labour’s election strategy”
I’d be interested to know why. Their strategic thinking has been seriously poor over the last year or so.
46.I am posting there very rarely these days, I feel the red mist coming over me on the site these days and post accordingly and then immediately regret it. Probable best not to post at all.
I had a look last night to see if there was any ‘I have resigned my membership after 30 years’ posts. Wasn’t disappointed.
51 Indeed Roger. We’re all looking forward to seeing Labour’s election strategy. They’re leaving it a bit late.
But they’ve already done Operation Fightback at their conference, so they must have some other idea.
Or maybe not.
57 A strong position and support, either way, from the UK wouldn’t do Obama any harm, though. Brown seems to be staring into the headlights unsure what to do.
The most exotic political bet I have struck this week, is a Lay of the Conservatives 400+, so somebody up there likes them
51 – “eagerly waiting for the fightback”
Roger that’s just being greedy…you’ve already had six!
30 – Cheers TSE… how was EuroDisney?
“I had a look last night to see if there was any ‘I have resigned my membership after 30 years’ posts.”
What I love about those is if true, such people were members of the party when it was the main pro-European party in UK politics.
@57:
What I’m I supposed to do? Denied the august company of the PBC punteriat at work, I’m forced to troll LibCon and ConHome every day.
Winding up Sunny Hundal’s too easy to be fun, and the UKIP loons of ConHome are depressingly thick.
I mean, I suppose I could do some work…
Although Europe features low in “What are your concerns” polls, it doedsnot necessarily mean people don’t care about it. If a poll asked how concerned are you about the colour of your front door it would rate well below Europe, the economy, Afghanistan, almost everything you could think of.
But people would get very exercised if the government suddenly announced that we all had to paint our doors pink, on the grounds that the polls show nobody is concerned about it.
55 - I think the recovery fail crippled their hopes. The entire strategy was being geared up around a recovery meme and suggesting that the Conservatives had been wrong, Labour had done the business etc.
It would be funny if it wasn’t such an unmitigated tragedy for UK PLC.
“eagerly waiting for the fightback” … what you mean? That labour are magically going to make the deficit disappear? That they are going to wish away the pensions black hole, the billions wasted selling gold. That they are going to pretend that burning billions propping up banks and dropping us into the biggest recession since time began is a neat idea?
Fightback? What do you mean. They are in no position to fight back - they have failed FAILED. And a failed govt deserves to be thrown out. It has no fightback strategy other than to cal its opponents names and tell lies.
11. Glad to see you’ve seen the light Plato.
38. As I mentioned on a previous thread some Lib Dem commentators simply feel Clegg doesn’t have the balls to call for an early withdrawal from Afghanistan. He is probably worried about Paddy. However it does make good political sense for them to take the initiative on an early exit strategy.
“By a narrow 47 percent to 43 percent, respondents say they support increasing the troop level in Afghanistan, which is a reversal from last month, when 51 percent opposed the increase and 44 percent supported it. ”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33495798/
They could well be the only one’s left there.
At least they aren’t blindly running at it anymore like the bull in a china shop Bush/Cheney years. While it’s a relief to finally have them *thinking* about the situation and waiting to weigh up the best mid and long term strategy they may well find that the decision is made easier if there emerges a consensus among its allies, no matter how many are willing to allow more pointless deaths just so they don’t have to admit that they were wrong.
First time I got there first too.
64 - I once had a similar issue with a certain site at my old place of work. Got around it by getting a friend to email a full copy and paste entire threads, every hour.
Labour revealed their election strategy last week
“No repeal of the Hunting ban”
Vote Labour !!
Rounding of “Others” The figure for others was taken from the detailed data. The reason this does not add up to 100% is because of rounding.
The curse ??
Roma 2 Fulham 1
71. Robert’s cunning load-balancing strategy has defeated the obvious first cunning plan; access the site by IP address
http://87.106.214.196/
66. Labour were also banking on a Tory split over Europe. Which hasn’t happened. Instead we’ve had the Sun thumping Brown. Labour supporters crowing about the Tories being pragmatic and united. The French attack, and the French surrender.
Nothing seems to go Labour’s way any more.
re 70. LTL You now have a credit in the main header.
72. Foxes will eat you cats! Vote Tory!!
Mr Dale doesn’t win PCC case
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
69.”While it’s a relief to finally have them *thinking* about the situation and waiting to weigh up the best mid and long term strategy they may well find that the decision is made easier if there emerges a consensus among its allies no matter how many are willing to allow more pointless deaths just so they don’t have to admit that they were wrong.”"
ukpaul, just go and check out how many Nato soldiers have died over the last few months while the leaders are waiting to weigh up the best mid and longterm strategy. And bear in mind that Obama has a very strong military team to advise him, he has the options, and he has left a huge vacuum right now which the Taliban have been exploiting relentlessly.
We have seen more deaths this year because there is no clear thinking or leadership at the top right now.
re 51. Here’s a guess at Labour’s strategy -
“Tory cuts versus Labour investment.”
78 - aww thanks, I wasn’t really too miffed.
82 - Yes because that has worked before.
FPT
‘79.77.They passed a resolution urging sanctions against Israeli goods.
Did you think I was making something up ?
by URW November 5th, 2009 at 5:28 pm’
Not at all. Just interested.
81 - Blame lies with Bush/Blair and so on, those mopping up their mess have been put in an unwinnable situation but one that they can’t afford to screw up in a similar blundering manner, I’d prefer if they pulled out now but, frankly, McChrystal has made that difficult and if the American public are happy with more dying then it means the President can afford to take his time.
Brown, on the other hand, should have no concern about what the US thinks and doesn’t have to think twice about about going against the electoral will. The blood is on his hands.
84 - We have a lot to thank Andrew Lansley for.
82 No more boom and bust. No time for a novice. IHT. Eton. Bullingdon. Toffs. Polish homophobes. Latvian $$.
When do we get the JARHEAD exit poll?!
81. Failure on healthcare plus failure on Afghanistan would be a crippling double hit I would have thought. Obama needs to get his ar*e in gear….
82 - they’ll have to go with ‘Thatcher’, it’s obvious.
77
I wonder what would happen if McDoom takes Paddy Ashdowns advice and moves to a war footing with a war cabinet etc. Brown might try to wrap himself in the flag - it would appeal to his nature; portraying himself as a war leader. But could he get away with it?
87. And Philip Hammond as well for probably the most succesful counter attack since Stalingrad!
He has been a real star for the Tories this year. The whole 10% cuts kerfuffle will probably be seen as the moment when Brown’s last best chance failed.
92 dont be silly..
92 - Gordon Brown attempting to wrap himself in the flag, given past form, he’ll only end up setting fire to it and/orlooking like a BNP numpty.
94
Thanks.
I feel better for that
49. RodCrosby
Interestingly, the Crosby Probabilistic figures are not a million miles away from the current state of play on the Betfair line betting market (mid-point in brackets):
Con 355 (363.25)
Lab 208 (203.75)
LD 45 (51.75)
SNP 14 (13.5)
PC 5 (5)
Crosby has the Tories and Lib Dems a bit lower, and Labour a bit higher (quelle surprise!), but still in the same ballpark.
56.Bush/Blair/Brown was a disaster, Obama/Brown is now turning out to be an even bigger disaster, and the current situation is bearing that out.
“McChrystal has made that difficult and if the American public are happy with more dying then it means the President can afford to take his time.”
He has to pick an option and then follow it through now, he has been dithering and taking his time all summer while the death toll keeps rising on his watch. But carrying on the current status quo is simple not an option, and it shows a complete lack of leadership from Obama. These soldiers are dying in ever increasing numbers under his watch not Bush’s. Obama is at the start of his Presidency with an amazing amount of good will internationally, Brown is a weak and outgoing British PM. Obama is the one failing us right now on the issue.
95 - Well he would have the flag upside down thats a dead cert.
98 - What would Cameron do if he was PM?
Poll lead of 14%
No in-fighting over Europe
Cammo’s ‘Soverignty Bill’ a sell-able USP on the doorstep.
TORIES IN TURMOIL!!!!!!!!
92 I heard Ashdown on the radio, and he was excellent. My view is put him in overall charge of the political strategy, and give McCrystal the troops he wants - or else, pull out, and leave them to their own devices.
Labour are doomed, DOOMED, etc., etc.
100 ignore anything you say for starters.
100 I don’t know; but I would lobby hard for Ashdown, if I was him. He would have made a superb governor in the mould of Sir John Lawrence or John Nicholson, had he been alive 150 years ago.
It does look like the table is now set and the dinner candles alight with the warm smell of freshly baked bread wafting through for Nick Clegg to make the call for withdrawal of British troops from Afghanistan.
Most strategic position for the party I read waffles on about Lib/Lab switchers and Lib/con switchers. However i can’t help but wonder if the real problem at the moment at least in terms of headline share is the Lib/Others switchers.
104 hows the football MTF?
CON 362
LAB 194
LD 54
SNP 14
PC 05
OTH 03
NI 18
You heard it here first.
107 - Football is banned from being mentioned on pb.com
F1, Rugby Union and cricket are the only sports fit for discussion on pb.com
Scottish sub-sample (114 respondents; usual caveats apply) from this YouGov/Channel 4 poll (+/- change from UK GE 2005):
Lab 32% (-7)
oth 32% (+10)
Con 19% (+3)
LD 17% (-6)
109 LYON
107
You heard Gordon wish every British team in Europe good luck, didnt you? Its the curse!
108. URW
“NI 18″ is hardly earth-shattering news!
111 - West Bromwich Albion?
Question time is warming up from Reading.
112
we have certainly shone in europe this week!
I’ll post this before Malcolm - Good poll for the Tories.
114 who? is that tim in disguise??
98 - the US’s top military officer, chair of the joint chiefs of staff disagrees with you, he has seen much progress and better understanding of the tangled situation.
“There’s been a lot of discussions, a lot of questions and clarifications on exactly what the specifics are, and quite frankly I applaud that……deliberations have really shed light in areas that have been very important to review to a depth and a breadth to really understand what is a very, very complex situation.”
McChrystal’s star has also recently taken a hit too, with reports that his past actions make him a far from credible figure.
‘Dithering’ is also a word used to merely twist a positive into a negative, it doesn’t reflect the reality. It’s like Brown saying ‘do nothing’ and is weak and transparent as an attack. It’s easy to find a similar word for any situation that gives such connotations (the wonder of our hybrid language).
Brown is failing because he has a backing for action which he refuses to even countenance, he has the power, he isn’t gone yet and he has the public’s support for withdrawal.
Should that be TORY 361 SPEAKER 1 ?
“The UK government has admitted that a new legally-binding global treaty on climate change is highly unlikely to be agreed this year.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8345501.stm
Shame, Gordon has’t enogh time to save the planet before the next GE.
100.Honestly, ,I think their options are going to be severely limited, and the situation made more difficult because of Obama if his current behaviour is anything to go by. In fact, I am really worried that the situation will be much worse by the time they were in government if they win the next GE. Lets face it, its what Obama decides to do now that is going to decide a future Conservative position. And if he carries on dithering while Brown holds his bag, god knows what kind of mess they are going to face.
Laptop grrr.. time to kick 15 year old of proppa PC.
109. TSE - “F1, Rugby Union and cricket are the only sports fit for discussion on pb.com”
Please note that Our Mighty Host’s favourite sporting event is the Tour de France!
Of course the appointment of Lord Ashdown as pro consul along side a large scale Anglo American reinforcement would be the perfect McDoom counterstrike to a Clegg call for withdrawal. Brown could finally get off the fence and mention that we were at war in every interview, wrap him self in the flag, collections for the troops in every parish hall, high profile visits every month, on leave soldiers drafted into every school to talk about it.
It would be a real line in the sand/other childrens blood with the lib dems and reveal some facinating positioning for the future of the centre left in Britain.
and would leave the Tories with a difficult decision.
122. The case for ’splendid isolation’ seems to get ever stronger, in all spheres.
119.Well lets just see where we are in six months time, I hope to god you are proved right. But Obama is worrying the hell out of me right now over this.
124 - Yes, I’d forgotten about that, the only sports that can be discussed are ones where Liverpool or the England national team aren’t a bag of sh1te.
125 IMO, it would be the right thing to do, but if there’s no will for it in London and Washington, then it’s best just to cut our losses and leave.
125 As an aside, had Ashdown remained in the armed forces, I’m sure he’d have reached the top.
125 - Hasn’t Karzai veteod Ashdown’s appointment in the past?
I for one, have come to the conclusion, we don’t have the resources to fight in Afghanistan, and should withdraw.
Uptil a month ago, I was still advocating a long term British presence in Afghanistan.
130. Yes and he would have served his country much better as well
131 - sadly you may be right.
121 - But I thought The Great Leader told us there was only 50 days to save the world by getting this agreement….
Shadsy, if you are out there, please can we have a market on Dumfries & Galloway!! It is the Scottish Tories No.1 target seat, and every commentator I have read has predicted a Tory shoo-in here. Be fun to test this consensus against the market. After all, money talks.
Interestingly, I just realised today that not a single bookie has the Scottish Tories as favourites* in a single Scottish seat!?! However, no bookie has a market on their top two seats: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale or Dumfries & Galloway.
* William Hill does have the Tories as joint favourite in one seat: East Renfrewshire (Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy’s seat) 5/6
105 - I agree with you on the troops, although leaving them to their own devices and flooding Pakistan and Iran with refugees would be a huge historical mistake
130/131 Ashdown is clearly up for it and the raw domestic politics of it is it would give Brown a very thick heat shield. I’d enjoy the myriad reasons various PR people would have to give for Clegg and Ashdown not going head to head on TV over policy. As for Karzai he isn’t in a position to veto anything any more
132. Naughty !
Biased Mike said: “the Tories don’t seem to have been damaged by the abandonment of the Lisbon treaty pledge in spite of fierce criticism being reported both from within their ranks and outside - perhaps reinforcing the point that very few voters regard Europe and EU-related issues as central to their view of the coming election.”
Maybe. Or it could just mean that a more significant portion of the electorate than we realized are capable of seeing through left wing media spin.
Maybe a significant portion could see very well that the party that really went back on a promise over Europe was Labour and that “oh, Lisbon isnt the same thing so you dont get a vote on this” was very much breaking the promise *in spirit.*
Maybe a significant portion of the electorate could see very well that David Cameron’s promise contained the clear implication that a referendum on Lisbon was only relevant and going to be bothered with all the time Lisbon was not ratified.
Maybe that 41% of the electorate have just wised up to the state of journalism these days.
The left wing nutters must be distraught at this YouGov. And they must be tearing their hair out that it is getting harder and harder to deceive people into what to think.
89 Ave it. JARHEAD exit poll shortly !!
The Screaming Eagles..
If you are about.. I hope this didnt happen to you….!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1225410/Wedding-fake-Newlyweds-cut-cake-reception–iced-block-polystyrene.html
131. We are now at the point where it’s the least worst rather than the best option. The big problem with cut and run is that Al-Qaeda would see it as more proof that the West is weak and decadent and hasn’t the stomach for a long fight. The American pullout from Somalia is credited with emboldening Bin Laden to strike harder against U.S. interests.
However public opinion won’t tolerate more days like Wednesday. If I were a senior Taliban leader I would be plotting a devastating strike against British troops like JackW had in Jarhead so as to try and influence the election outcome.
It was reported on Channel 4 News tonight that the Tories are to have a post election rethink on Afghanistan.My first reaction (as a Tory) was to ask “why not have the rethink now” but I guess it may be something to do with having all the confidential info - ability to chat with Allies and so on - or (perish the thought !) ancaot on Afghanistan to dangle to the electorate.
135 cont.
Ladbrokes has the Scottish Tories as joint favourite in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (5/6) and Renfrewshire East (5/6).
140 - No, that didn’t happen to me, fortunately, this didn’t happen to me either.
URL Says it all
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/6504886/Wife-is-allergic-to-her-husbands-sperm.html
139 oooooh cant wait!!!!!
29 “Once again, though, we see Dave being 100% vindicated, and all those who underestimated him *again* looking like idiots.”
ZNL has proved that if a chunk of your core vote has nowhere to go because all three main parties agree on a particular issue then you can safely ignore them…for a while.
The main impact of Chamberlain’s reneging won’t be felt till after the election because ZNL’s broken promise trumps Chamberlain’s broken promise.
Bored of it now though so last word on the subject.
“Biased Mike”
Oh behave.
For sale in Edinburgh
http://www.gatheredimages.com/pages/JR/casino.html
Kilroy on QT battering PH!
My comment on 141 - apols but the strange word in the penultimate line beginning with “a” should have been typed as “carrot”.Sorry.
135.
Aha! Just found one hidden away here - on Skybet!!
Edinburgh South (incumbent Nigel Griffiths MP, Lab)
Con 6/5
LD 7/4
Lab 3/1
SNP 14/1
That 7/4 on Ken Mackintosh of the Scottish Lib Dems looks like great value.
My comment on 141 - apols but the strange word in the penultimate line beginning with “a” should have been typed as “carrot”.Sorry.
Is there anyone who can free my last comment from the spam trap?
148 - Physically?
re 148 but is anyone battering Blair?
The Betfair Edinburgh South market has finally got off the ground. Still peanuts traded, but better than nothing:
Con 1.25
LD 1.25
Lab 2.5
SNP 2.5
Any Other 2.5
147
20% saying that they should continue there as long as the Afghan government wants them there
Are they all Labour voters who hate the troops for being Tories and want them to stay out there and die?
If Afghanistan and expenses/democracy/trust etc start to get linked together in the sense of “the best in the country dying for the worst” then Afghanistan will become increasingly toxic for the political class.
This is especially so given the lackadaisical attitude of the political class to the electoral fraud and government corruption over there.
That’s on top of the right/wrong and pragmatic stuff on the war as an subject in itself.
Sounds like some nutter has gone ‘rogue’ in a US army base. Sky reports 7 dead 12 woundd.
153
sadly not, they are now recording,
boring panel expect for Kilroy
157 I’ve heard SWP people and communists say that, but when British Troops in NI so no doubt every soldiers’ death brings a smile to the lefty scumbags.
Now that Labour’s latest hope of damaging the Tories - the Lisbon Treaty - has withered to nothing, may I suggest they revisit this idea of ‘tearing the Tories to pieces’?
Bombing Iran!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/25832/iran-could-tear-the-tories-to-pieces.thtml
157 - I think that is a pretty offensive question really.
157 - “20% saying that they should continue there as long as the Afghan government wants them there
Are they all Labour voters who hate the troops for being Tories and want them to stay out there and die?”
Well upto to about a month ago, I was one of the 20%, and I’m a tory, and as someone who has several friends in the armed forces, so in answer to your question, No!
Has Gordon reverse cursed Jedward?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8345696.stm
165 - Let’s hope so.
Is interesting, earlier on this week, Cameron outed himself as Jedward fan.
I wonder if they’ve seen some polling evidence, and are going after the pro and anti Jedward vote.
166 - I don’t think that would be a terribly rich seam to harvest.
JARHEAD Day Twenty Nine. Part III
Timeline : Thursday 6th May 2010. 9.59pm.
Location : BBC Television Centre, Sheperd Bush, London W10.
Dramatis Personae : David Dimbleby.
……………………………………………………..
The BBC election night special had been broadcasting for almost an hour and within seconds the exit poll would be released. It was a dramatic moment for Dimblebey. Not since the landslide election landslide of 1997 had there been so much tension within his team and shortly the polls would close and the first results would be expected within 90 minutes.
The live feed came out of an outside broadcast from Witney and camera one panned onto Dimblebey :
“And now as we look at Big Ben and the hands move toward ten o’clock the BBC in conjuction with Sky News can reveal the contents of our exit poll”
Big Ben struck ten …..
“We predict a hung parliament with the Conservatives having polled 35%, the Labour party 28% and the Liberal Democrats 28%. Our computer models initial prediction is for the Conservatives to take 270 seats, Labour 260 seats and the Liberal Democrats 90 seats ……..”
In a Bedford household there was wild cheering at the prospect of both Burnley and Bedford becoming Liberal Democrat territory.
In Witney, Downing Street and Sheffield the faces of the three party leaders were a mixture of shock, anxiety, pleasure and nervious anticipation. It was going to be a long night and probably a long few days.
Shadsy, I also find it odd that Ladbrokes do not have a market on either Stirling nor Argyll & Bute. Both very exciting 3-way marginals, so surely Ladbrokes could make a buck or three out of punters?
168 - Well some of us may vote for Jedward, purely because Simon Cowell says he’ll leave the country for 6months if Jedward win.
That might be the rich seam that needs harvesting.
Who’s on QT tonight? Kilroy and?
171 - Doesn’t he leave the country for 6 months most years anyway for American Idol?
172 - Peter Hain MP, Nick Herbert MP, Sir Ian Blair, Robert Kilroy-Silk and Natalie Haynes
172 - Peter Vain, Ian Blair, Nick Herbert and some anonymous comedienne.
Kilroy is Euro-foaming, bonkers.
98. Waiting to see the respond of the Afghan people to the election result is a very sensible move before deciding to send thousands of troops into a battle zone. This ridiculous 24-hour-media culture of demanding instant responses and decisions utterly demeans good and thoughtful leadership.
response*
169 hahaha - its going to be more nervous in 26 weeks time as we sit by our TVs and PCs waiting for thre real thing!
If its like that I might kick my telly! Not the PC of course as I dont want to miss the big night!
OT, but oh dear
With another £40bn disappearing down the black hole known as the British Banking sector, the financial cost of the economic and banking collapse is now only rivaled by the two World Wars in it’s cost to the UK taxpayer. Rather than going to support credit to business or households, the further £25bn of “newly printed money” announced today is likely to go to help prop up the Government debt mountain.
…
The fact the new money is being laundered back to the Government via the investment banks does not change the economic reality of this process: the Bank of England is financing the Government’s debt needs via printing money in the manner of the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5508853/printing-money-is-not-the-solution.thtml
As an old soldier (well a National Serviceman!) I always thought at Staff College that young officers were fed the “Don`t get involved in a war you cannot win” philosophy. Pity that our Labour politicians never attended Sandhurst.
180. The Spectator is truly revealing its economic illiteracy here. Inflation fell to 1.1% and preliminary GDP growth in Q3 was still negative, do they really recommend tightening monetary policy? And if we are going to continue with the same rate of QE, what should the Bank buy if not government bonds? If action to keep liquidity in the economy is needed, why should we avoid the side-effect benefit of limiting the shocking rise in debt?
179 Ave it. Are you waiting up for the Watford result ??
Anyone any idea what’s happening at Fort Hood? Seeing reports that the shooters are ‘military’ but there’s three of them which doesn’t sound like PTSD.
CNN reporting mass shooting at an American army base in Texas, at least 7 dead, more that 1 shooter, no idea if it’s terrorism related
183 only if its better than v WBA last week!
163. “Bombing Iran!”
Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/05/iran-tested-nuclear-warhead-design
If that’s true I don’t think Iran will wait until the general election. That would be the smoking gun, Iran could no longer plausibly claim that their nuclear programme is peaceful.
181. We won the war within weeks back in 2001; it’s the occupation which is proving unsustainable.
186 Ave it. Surely anything is better than last week, even a barely saved lost deposit !!
186 - What happened against WBA last week?
Afghanistan should be 100% or 0%, anything in between is murder.
This government haven’t been 100% in our bit and that could change but we can’t possibly do 100% overall. So that means the US.
Personally I think the Obamassiah wants to leave but doesn’t want to take the political hit while public opinion is evenly divided. That means he’ll go for dithering and half-measures while waiting for the casualties to gradually reduce public support to the level where it’s safe to quit.
190 Scream. We don’t talk about !! …. Back to bed you.
Woman called Kilroy an old man from the muppets!
189
190
188 “We won the war within weeks back in 2001; it’s the occupation which is proving unsustainable.”
That’s why anti AQ stuff should be hit and run imo.
184 - Suggestion now of two shooters not three (per MSNBC).
Socrates 182. There is an argument the Bank should use QE to buy Corporate Bonds and Commercial Deposits and not just Government Debt.
169. UPDATE. In the most astonishing election of modern times, the Labour party are now forecast to finish narrowly third in the popular vote, but remain narrowly the largest party in the House of Commons.
Lab 261, Con 255, LD 96, SNP 12, PC 5, Oth 3, NI 18…
Socrates - how does the govt printing money to buy its own debt help the economy?
It could use the money to buy business debt and Corporate bonds but it’s not. The Coffee House article points out the only buyer of govt debt is … the govt itself! How long do you think that can continue?
In what way is current policy ‘restoring the flow of credit and reducing the cost of existing debt for the private sector’?
Note - ‘the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in directing asset purchases to mortgage and credit related assets.’ Why do we not do the same?
Can you explain how the current QE policy is working before slagging off the messenger? The point is that QE is NOT doing anything to ease liquidity anywhere except in the area of buying govt debt. How will debt be financed next year?
+++Stop Press+++
Brown takes time out to reveal that he thinks that the X-Factor twins are not very good.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/05/yougov-now-have-a-14-point-tory-lead/
200 - Matthew Ch 7 v 3 springs to mind.
Hain says 70m pop is too much.
JARHEAD Election Results
1130pm :
Con Gain Croyden Central
Con Gain Tynemouth
Con Gain Chester
Con Gain Dartford
Con Gain Bolton North East
Lib Dem Gain Derby North
Recount Northampton North
Con Gain Harlow
Recount Sheffield Central
203 Recount Sheffield Central - come on the Con gain!!!!!!
Here’s one for Tim, who I know cares about these things so much:
“X Factor Twins not very good says Gordon Brown” - on the BBC website no less.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8345696.stm
Troops dying in Afhghanistan and what is Gordon preoccupied with our ‘heavyweight’ ‘unspun’ PM?
204 Ave it. Possibly not !!
200. Snap!
202 - it is if it includes him in the total.
JARHEAD Election Results :
0001am :
Recount Bolton West
Con Gain Dover
Con Gain Hendon
Con Gain Eltham
Lib Dem Win Solihull
Con gain Battersea
Con Gain Corby
Recount Eastbourne
End of QT bit boring.
I might actually start to believe in this curse thing. Everton are 2-0 down.
Is there a survey asking
“Should our soldiers in Afghanistan be properly funded?”
“Are our soldiers in Afghanistan properly funded?”
200/5 - Damned if they comment, damned if they don’t.
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/xfactor/news/a185142/cameron-backs-addictive-john–edward.html
200
Unlike of course Dave who loves ‘em.
Conservative Party leader David Cameron has admitted that he is addicted to X Factor’s John & Edward.
Cameron said that he considers the Grimes brothers an “amusing act” and claimed that he preferrs the ITV1 talent show to BBC One’s Strictly Come Dancing.
“You only need to watch a few minutes and suddenly 40 minutes later, you’re still nailed to your chair, waiting for the terrible twins to appear,” he told The Sun.
What an arse!!
209 Solihull? Fancy the Con gain there! (technically Con hold on new boundaries??)
GOAL Everton 0-2 Benfica
Gordo…
ELECTION UPDATE
The suspects at Ford Hood look likely to have an interesting story.
More news hopefully will be on its way.
142.”It was reported on Channel 4 News tonight that the Tories are to have a post election rethink on Afghanistan.My first reaction (as a Tory) was to ask “why not have the rethink now” but I guess it may be something to do with having all the confidential info - ability to chat with Allies and so on - or (perish the thought !) ancaot on Afghanistan to dangle to the electorate.
I listened to that C4 news segment with interest. It was actually quite a poor assessment because it failed to highlight just how much an incoming Conservative governments policy will have to adjust to what is decided by Obama and the Americans, and to a lesser extent what the other Nato allies decide right now. Quite honestly, our position in Afghanistan is wholly dependent on what Obama does, hence my concern with him right now.
My worry is that the status quo will be continued meantime, with increasing casualties as a result. But the Conservatives are going to have to be ready for that situation as well, and its going to further effect public opinion. They will need to be ready to respond to any change in American/Nato strategy when it comes. Cameron and Fox are going to have to be ready to respond clearly and swiftly, and they better be ready to argue their case and follow it through. And if that means being critical allies, so be it. I think that Obama will go for a modified version of the McCrystal report, I just hope he doesn’t make the same mistakes that his predecessors in Washington and London did.
Initial news rumour that one person lifted after Fort Hood shootings is an officer at the base. Remains to be confirmed.
Obama making a statement shortly.
JARHEAD Election Results :
0030am :
Con Gain Finchley
Con Gain Loughborough
Con Gain Carmarthen West
Con Gain Ribble South
Con Gain Swindon North
Lib Dem Gain Islington South
Recount Guilford
Lib Dem Gain Liverpool Wavertree
Con Gain Gedling
Con Gain Tooting
199 agreed, I was wondering something on those lines earlier, Say the IMF stepped in and said to Brown, there will be no printing of money, this country would, I believe, be fighting a civil war. Its only the buy now pay later madness that’s keeping the country going.
The scrappage scheme around these parts is doing well from Parents swopping their 4 year old cars for the ones their sproggs have traded in with their heaps and the balance paid for by the Bank of mum and dad. Sad thing is a rather nice new one decided park itself in my boot at the weekend, having just left the garage & daddy isn’t happy
I am, my 10 year old escort with clutch and big end going has just netted me with £2K after arguing it was going to be traded in.
All very confusing at the moment at Fort Hood but there being at least two shooters suggests this was planned. Security would obviously be strong at a base so who can get in and how? Reports say a 40-ish year old man is in custody, possibly a shooter still on the loose but nobody seems sure. Now up to nine killed and thiry wounded.
John & Edward aren’t very good. They are however prepared to participate in an open democratic contest in which the many people who think they aren’t very good can vote them into oblivion this very Saturday.
No ironic resonance in Gordo having a go at them, then.
More re-Gordo X-Factor News,
“Questioned by an audience of mostly young people in Manchester, the prime minister. The question came from teenage actress Brooke Vincent, who plays Sophie Webster in Coronation Street, who was in the audience.”
Hmm, so more school kids asking the “tough” questions then. Standard day in the weird world of PM Gordo Brown. His diary really does seem to be,
Bunker, Bunker, meet school kids, Bunker, Bunker, visit ultra safe Labour area, Bunker, Bunker, meet school kids.
FPT
“Big Test for the Jonah curse this evening”
I’ve just backed Benfica
by Scott P November 5th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Guido broke the news to Dizzy, a lifelong Everton fan. His exact words were “That’s it we’re f****d, that f*****g c**t has really f****d us now.”
Cheers Gordo !!
Army Major with ..an ‘Arabic’ sounding name….
‘Arabic sounding name’ could mean anything.
222 got to be con overall majority surely?!!!
226 - Brooke Vincent was born on 4th June 1992 so even if the election is on the last possible date she will be one day too young to have a say.
US Army saying that the shooters are soldiers. Hmm….
12 dead 31 wounded..
JARHEAD Election Results :
0100am :
Con Gain Crawley
Con Gain Milton Keynes South
Con Gain Vale of Glamorgan
Recount Broxtowe
Lib Dem Gain Edinburgh South
Lib Dem Gain Swansea West
Recount Manchester Gorton
Con Gain Stafford
Con Gain Swindon North
Con Gain Stevenage
Con gain Halifax
226. What are the odds on Gordo getting booed at the remembrance day parade this weekend?
232 - Recount Broxtowe you are having a
aren’t you?
233 - I think the soldiers, past and present, know that it wont be the time and the place to boo anyone.
The booing at Obama Beach, had different factors, hence the booing.
233.226. What are the odds on Gordo getting booed at the remembrance day parade this weekend?
Someone send him a Donkey Jacket he could wear that!
The X Factor quotes illustrate quite well the Brown v Cameron personas. Brown seems to take X Factor seriously, that it matters whereas Cameron views it as entertainment, with humour.
“I don’t think they’re very good. There are some really good people on X-Factor. It’s really good” v “You only need to watch a few minutes and suddenly 40 minutes later, you’re still nailed to your chair, waiting for the terrible twins to appear”
Cameron just sounds better.
234 James B. Recounts happen for a variety of reasons !!
Fingers Xd for Manchester Gorton. Don’t let me down, JackW.
In 1967 Aden, 22 British soldiers were killed in one night when Arab police mutinied, its not a new thing.
With 73% of the UK public now saying they want withdrawal, how is the Cameron government going to deal with that? Cameron can’t bow to that, the Sun would slaughter him. Good opportunity for the Libdems perhaps.
‘He who rides the Tiger can never dismount’
Does anyone seriously believe that Brown/Cameron actually watch these rubbish programmes? Politicians make statements on them because they want people to think they are “connected” with the people. Prats.
239 go Ave it/Cat party Broxtowe 2010!
234, 239, Probably to see if the Conservatives have held their deposit - I understand that all their voters there are all lending their support to NPMP……
Brown effect
“I want to see all British teams do well when they are playing against European opposition,” said Mr Brown. “Everton of course play tonight. I hope they do well in the Europa League and I hope they get through this stage of the competition.”
Oh, dear
238
Sycophantic arse licking, dick sucking creep.
That a PM or leader of the opposition should even be bothered by such a thing is bad enough, for you do indulge in that sort of sick making garbage is even worse.
177.”98. Waiting to see the respond of the Afghan people to the election result is a very sensible move before deciding to send thousands of troops into a battle zone. This ridiculous 24-hour-media culture of demanding instant responses and decisions utterly demeans good and thoughtful leadership.”
Sorry, but what on earth do you think has been going on for the last 12 months in Afghanistan while these elections were looming? The Taliban didn’t take a holiday, no, they increased and modified their attacks to become ever more successful. The turnout for these elections was pitiful in Helmand, and that is so quickly forgotten. I suspect that the soldiers who have been deployed out there during this period would have been glad of the extra support and help. And I think that the Afghan people might desperately crave a more safe and secure environment than the one they currently have to survive in.
This is not about the 24 hour media culture or demanding instant responses, this is about the sheer volume of casualties we are sustaining at the moment while the politicians decide what to do.
When we look back at this period, the mistakes of the last 12 months will be a defining factor. That is when we should have taken the more decisive action, and the current situation post elections in Afghanistan is testimony to that fact. What the hell has the last 12 months been about!
237 Poor Michael Foot - he was wearing a relatively expensive Loden coat but the Sun’s “Donkey Jacket” jibe haunts him still.
246 - Why shouldn’t they take an interest in popular culture?
242. Brown’s weighty pronouncements on X Factor is the second most read story on the BBC website. Oh dear.
The nightmare lineup - Kilroy Silk, Ian Blair and Peter Hain on Question Time. I won’t be watching.
Oi Brown, the words pot, kettle and black spring to mind…
JARHEAD Election Results :
0130hrs :
Lib Dem gain Sheffield Central after recount. Maj 201.
Con Gain Dudley South
Con Gain Wirral South
Con Gain Plymouth Devonport
Con Gain Hove
Con Gain Stroud
Con Gain Bury North
Lib Dem gain Watford
Recount Bedford
Con Gain Great Yarmouth
Con Gain Blackpool North
what sort of grown man watches a teenage talent contest? get a life, sheeesh, even my nephew of 15 thinks it sh!t.
250 You are a lucky girl, Polly - it is coming from Reading, where I live, and I feel strangely compelled to see who they have dragged off the streets……I fear that the audience will be even worse than the Panel.
251 Were the polls wrong Jack?
249
They aren’t interested in it, you don’t honestly think they bother watching the Xfactor do you? Some PR moron comes up with that sort of nonsense to make them look more, ‘human’ more in touch, its just crap.
OT The Guardian seem content to keep digging
The Tory move, condemned as “autistic” by the French Europe minister, Pierre Lellouche, in a Guardian interview,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/05/david-cameron-europe-plan-doomed
Pierre Lellouche, a minister with a reputation for a sharp tongue, deeply regretted causing offence by calling British Tories autistic, but he also blamed his interviewer’s poor grasp of French, according to his spokesman.
“Pierre Lellouche fully understands the emotion that has been aroused and bitterly regrets that he may have wounded people,” said Franck Allisio. “The words used obviously do not reflect the substance of his thought and the clumsiness was completely unintended.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6905422.ece
233 – “Recount Broxtowe”
You tease…Jack
251 ‘Lib Dem gain Watford’
Not a proper election!!!!!!!!!
Where’s Mark Senior?!!!!
Reports that the initial shooter is a 40 year old *Major*.
246 as Tony Blair says “am I bothered?”
I don’t care if either of them watch X Factor or like Gordon Brown’s “Arctic Monkeys” iPod moment it’s spin. What is rare is both of them being asked the same question outside of politics and it is IMHO revealing of how they respond and react in terms of a campaign. Cameron dealt with it lightly, as a bit of fun but Gordon treated it nearly as seriously as which biscuit he prefers. Cameron wins.
Talk now of one shooter and two suspects, as always in this sort of thing reports are muddled and maybe contradictory.
255 - Yes I can. I don’t believe that our politicians are cut off from real life. I can believe that they would watch trashy saturday night tv just like millions of other people the length and breadth of the land.
253. Rather you than me Augustus.
233 - recount Broxtowe.. were all the Tories for Palmer postal voters ?
259
Great news guys we are all going home, back to Texas, Fort Hood, goodbye ‘Stan, thank God we’ll be safe there!’
260 more to the point… Coldstone loses on every count.
On X-Factor-Gate, to be fair to Gordo and Cameron can’t win either way if asked a direct question on this in a public arena (that doesn’t excuse Gordo other rubbish in this area, like writing to all the contestants etc).
What I want to know, why the f##k is the BBC putting it on the front page. It isn’t really news is it, at best a minor note in the entertainment slot. One could be cynical and say all about “humanising” the image.
246 coldstone: I hope you sued the charm school. We know you are disappointed to see nice steady poll results confirming that Cammo is The One and will reign over us for a thousand years before ascending bodily to heaven to the sound of trumpets, but do you have to address people like that? I certainly prefer Cam’s idea of small talk to yours. Why is social maladjustment something you are proud of?
235/340 etc.
For those who have Excel and would like to play you favourite election result, here’s one I made earlier…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/electsim.xls
You must have macros enabled. To speed things up, reduce the delay value using the spin control. Have fun!
262
Bollocks!
Way O/T but are there plans afoot for a pb.com pre-Christmas gathering?
JARHEAD Election Results :
0200hrs :
Lib Dems Gain Northampton North after recount. Maj 495.
Con Hold Guilford after recount. Maj 237.
Con gain Bristol NW.
Con Gain Wolverhampton SW
Con Gain Burton
Con Gain Calder Valley
Con Gain Hastings and Rye
Con Gain Ipswich
Recount Chatham
Recount Pudsey
Recount Meon Valley
Recount Harborough
Lib Dem Gain Burnley
268 - Sadly, X Factor is one of Britain’s most watched TV Shows.
When someone comments on it, it generally becomes news.
As an X Factor fan, it’s bloody active, and good for the soul. And I havent even mentioned Danni Minogue’s and Cheryl Cole’s outfits.
Front Pages so far,
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/friday_6th_november_2009.html
262. I’ve read that Gordon prefers to see middle class plays at the National, but has to keep his trips quiet. The whole X Factor, footie thing has just got too revolting. It’s rather like the poppy-ulism (today’s Evening Standard had Sarah Brown sporting an extra specially big one - my poppy is bigger than your poppy stuff). It’s cynical and patronising.
274 TSE
You commented - it wasn’t news. Congrats btw.
sorry not 262
I’ve been predicting for months, GE Tories 38 lab 28 Libdem 20
we are within an whisper of that.
I’d rather be a charm school reject, than the sort of sycophantic arse likker (of any party) who are over represented on this site.
As for Government Cameron, I can’t wait, once the honeymoon period is over, (it won’t take long) I’ll be here, every day and in every way, I’ll get worse-n-worse.
272. Still trying to raise a quorum for the Liverpool bash…
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdHRidE1XMl96clRBNnYzR1BTLW9ySkE&hl=en_GB
274 - When your twins are 6 you’ll be watching the X Factor.
277 - That should have read “When someone famous comments on the X Factor, it becomes news”
and thank you.
275 - Seems like the Telegraph might have had a chat with Gordo over Afghanistan.
re 237 well if he found a black tie in his wardrobe it would be an improvement on last year. And the same goes for Cameron too. They should take a leaf out of HM’s book. I bet she even has black knickers on.
X-factor is for chavs, inverse snobs and masochists - choose your grouping.
226 “Bunker, Bunker, meet school kids, Bunker, Bunker, visit ultra safe Labour area, Bunker, Bunker, meet school kids.”
Reminds me of Saddam.
(O/T The twins are cr*p singers but brilliant showmen - they should be the Irish Ant and Dec.)
274 TSE - unlike Cameron & Brown I’ve never watched it, but then unlike them I don’t have kids demanding to.
280 - No, I’m giving up X Factor for the sake of my kids. I dont want them to be damaged by watching it.
‘Not terrorism related’ and those targetted were those *on their way* to Aghanistan/Iraq. Well that gives us something more concrete to speculate on if, indeed, there is a motive.
280 it wont exist in 6 yrs, it will have been replaced by some other pointless waste of time.
Gunman armed with pistols. Suggests a) they couldnt get long arm ammunition or b) the pistols were a weapon of first choice. I’d suggest the latter.
Re the X-factor stuff. Worth re-watching the earlier episodes of “The Thick of It” imo. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cameroons have a Zeitgiest tape.
Is the Broxtowe recount between Con and LD?
No way does NP win with those national figures.
I’d like to stress I’m more of a SCD fan, I only watch X Factor, as it’s good for my self esteem, watching people prove that I’m not the worst singer and dancer in the country.
Malik Nadal Hassan…
283 Chris A - was it you that asked about Zambia? My Mac bust so it was iPhone only so couldn’t respond easily.
Why has the Telegraph, for so long deried with the nickname “Torygraph”, decided that now is the time to become a Labour paper?!
Shopkeepers who named and shamed vandal on boarded-up window told by police to stop infringing yob’s ‘civil liberties’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1225471/Couple-shamed-yob-writing-smashed-window-told-harms-civil-liberties.html#ixzz0W1icHFUX
So what was that new great Gordo plan of publicly naming and shaming ASBO holders again?
291 - You forget that Broxtowe has some a unique situation, The Tories for Palmer.
292 TSE
“I’m not the worst singer and dancer in the country.”
Does Mrs Eagles agree?
The alleged traytor/murderer/gunman involved in the the Fort Hood killing has been named as Major Malik Nadal Hasan.
Sources at the BBC suggest he is either a Christian or Israeli.
291. It would be ironic if NPMP was to narrowly hold on and leave Cameron 1 short of a majority!!
298 - She doesn’t agree.
299. The suggestion is this guy was certainly one of the ones that was seen firing shots
JARHEAD Election Results :
0230hrs :
Lab Hold Bolton West after recount. Maj 583.
Second Recount Eastbourne
Con Gain Aberconwy
Con Gain Stourbridge
Lib Dem Gain Manchester Gorton after recount. Maj 681
Con Gain Cleethorpes
Con Gain Harrow East
Con Gain Poplar and Limehouse
Con Gain Waveney
Recount Dudley North
Recount Dewsbury
Recount Keighley
Lib Dem Gain Brent Central
301 TSE
In that case, a long and happy union lies ahead! 41 years in my case - largely due to Mrs Nat’s accurate assessment of me.
Jack W
What caused all the deaths in Afghanistan?
299. Internet rumours swirling he is a convert to Islam…
297 – Apart from sounding really weird, what on earth was NickP going on about with his “Tories for Palmer.” Any ideas?
Guardian Front Page, still bashing on about Cameron planned doomed according to EU Ministers. Imagine what their reaction (aided and abetted by the BBC) he had called for a referendum!
Thank you,JackW. I wish much worse on Mr.Gortman but losing his Seat is a good start.
303 ‘Con Gain Poplar and Limehouse’
Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our first win there since 1831!!!!!!!!
Is Bolton W Lab’s only seat so far?!
307 - To be fair, I can believe some people do like their local MP, and will vote for him/her regardless of the rosette they wear.
306 Are you saying he is an muslim?
Is it possible?!?
Does anyone have the details of the YouGov poll?
304 - I hope we’re as happy as you two are.
299 - You’re disgusting, have some respect for the dead rather than making pathetic jokes about your parochial hatreds.
306. apparently confirmed by ABC News…
re 294 Ted not me. What about Zambia?
311 absolutely, Dr Ian Gibson formerly of Chloe Smith’s parish had Tories of personal familiarity in his following.
I wouldnt like to be a Hasan in the Virginia phonebook over the coming weeks.
313 - Another Richard, poll details here
http://www.channel4.com/news/article.jsp?id=3411597&time=114923
and click on the on link for full details, opens up in an excel spreadsheet
316 - Numbers changed, that is to the idiot naming themself ‘ken wasabi’.
268. Gordo clearly went ballistic at yesterday’s Sun where Cameron’s X Factor comments were a minor aside. So now Gordon has to have his own X Factor story covered by an obliging BBC. Even on this Gordon’s playing keepy uppy.
299. The culprit is a Christian or an Israeli? What source is the BBC using - a Spooks scriptwriter?
306 ar. Roadside bomb, secondary ambush and helicopter rescue crash.
0347am Con gain Liverpool West Derby yessssssssssssssss! We have won!!!
279- I’ve signed up now. I have exams on December 8/9 but am free after that
307. NPMP posted an election leaflet thing he’d done which put him voting for the transparancy bill front and centre. Some people who were particulary angry about the expenses thing would think he deserved a vote purely on that.
325. you read it wrong. It was Con hold deposit at LWB!
325, if we take West Derby then Sintellins North is a sinch.
I cannot believe a muslim was involved. As we know Islam means ‘Peace’. Labour and the BBC said so.
It is clear that there can be no connection with the killings of British soldiers in Afg yesterday…
clearly.
The randomly selected Reading audience for Question Time has managed to include Anniliese Dodds, the Labour candidate for Reading East.
223. Oops - disregard that comment about Spooks scriptwriters. It’s been a long day …
326. Thanx. We now have 8. Surely we can make it 10?
Just a thought. Liverpool is a political-savvy kind of place. Should I throw it open to non-PBers?
Next leader of the Labour Party now on Question Time:
I’ll say it again,
It’s Peter Hain!
334 - I hope you’re right. Tories would get a landslide in 2014/15
JARHEAD Election Results.
0300 hrs :
Lib Dem Win Somerton and Frome
Con Gain Cardiff North
Con Gain Colne Valley
Secound Recount Broxtowe
Con Gain Brigg and Goole
Con Gain Warwick and Leamington Spa
Recount Hammersmith
Con Gain Leicestershire NW
Lib Dem Gain Durham
Lib Dem Gain Oldham East and Saddleworth
Lib Dem Gain Hampstead and Kilburn
Recount Bradford East
Re West Derby, from electoral calculus, it goes Tory on this result: Con 60, Lab 15, Lib 10 with a majority of 1.75%. Theoretically. Because this is a seat we haven’t worked in a political generation, I have a feeling that a mere 40% lead may do it.
278 coldstone what is this bollocks about sycophancy? Do you think DC regularly reads this forum and thinks ooh, ted on pb is being nice about me, first thing I’ll do on coming to power is get MI5 to identify him by his IP address and have him round for supper? DC manages to look and sound like a human being who might actually do something human like get sucked in to watching a crap tv show by accident. Brown acts as if he relies on an out of date human-to-gordon phrasebook when trying to do small talk. clue: no human being would call x factor “really good”. human responses are all in the range “it’s crap and i hate it” to “it’s crap but i love it”. you may think dc is a creepy charmer and that what makes GB inadequate as a human being is also what makes him great as a statesman but that in no way alters the fact that this is an area where dc outperforms gb.
and enough of this “I dont mind the opinion polls beause they are in line with my predictions”. my predictions include me getting old and then dying but that doesnt stop me minding about it.
333- feel free
316 I respect the dead and I do my bit. I doubt you do.
However, the dead can not be helped. The wounded are being taken care of. What concerns me is we are best defended so our families can sleep at night and our children grow up without fear.
Are we playing insults? No. I can be bothered with you.
316 Chris A someone asked me if Zambia was indeed like the BBC correspondent was finding it. Can’t recall who.
336 - Rees Moggless?
337/336 its more likely than LD gain Durham!!!!!!!
Sheer beggars belief that the Tories are now the villains of the piece in the Euro debate. How can the BBC be allowed the distort the position like this?
I keep harping on about it, but this is going to cause big damage for the Tories because of the way the Beeb (and others) are misleading people.
Evening allIs this the worst QT panel ever?
JackW
What is the current prediction for total final MPs?
Looks approx like:
Con 280
Lab 220
LD 100
Oth 50
Meanwhile 26 weeks time….
Con gain Sunderland Central yesssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
316 ukpaul
What the hell are you on about?
TSE I didn’t say we were happy!!! Content is a reasonable description though
347 ar. Latest BBC projection +/- 5 seats.
Con 270 .. Lab 260 .. Lib Dem 80 .. Others 40.
Major Hasan was reportedly very unhappy about a due deployment to Iraq.
340 - Your comments are always reactionary, never thoughtful or considered, and as such not usually worth responding to; dishonouring the dead is not on though, so just this once, I’ll say what I think.
I’m reading comments from people scared that they can’t contact their loved ones and watching news reports pleading for blood donations. You see people being killed and your first thought is to make a joke about the BBC.
Makes you look big and clever doesn’t it?
349 - The numbers changed oldnat, sorry; I posted just after that with the name of the person I thought was out of order.
“5-0″
Albion gain Watford
Isn’t Nick Herbert one of tim’s pinups. I think he even tipped Herbert as a future leader?
Does anyone else think he needs an ear pin-back op first?
JackW
That looks too high for Labour and too low for the LibDems.
How are the LibDems doing in the south-west?
355 - I’ve tipped Nick Herbert as a future Tory Leader. He’s wasted at DEFRA. Make him Shadow Home Secretary.
354 Con gain West Brom - WBA same division new MP!
356 Cat party gain Exeter?!
CBS News: CBS has learned Ft. Hood shooter Maj. Hasan was licensed psychiatrist from Maryland
It appears that AQ (or the like) are making coordinated attacks on servicemen.
2 months ago, Australian police arrested Somalians planning an attack on Australian barracks. The timing is coincidental to the attacks on British and American servicemen.
355 - Home Sec, not leader
I notice the Brown Effect worked its wonders on Everton.
Peter Hain looks rather pale…..or is my telly going on the blink again?
test
It appears that AQ (or the like) are making coordinated attacks on servicemen.
Simon at 308: We’ve discussed it here before, but briefly: a number of local Conservatives, including a former councillor and several other longstanding members, said they were willing to form a support group for me, analogously to the Democrat and Republican groups in America who support someone they like locally from the other party. I took them up on it and it’s had some press coverage - they have their own leaflets and follow up when we identify people who are wavering between national preference and local preference. Sure, it may seem weird to hardened politicos but there are people out there who do think the candidate’s more important than the party, or who have a reason for reservations about the other candidate.
I’m not overstating it, but if things become otherwise tight it’ll be useful - a couple of dozen people are involved (some not keen to be public as they’re still helping the Tories with leaflet delivery at council level) and a couple of hundred people so far apparently swayed on doorsteps - we hope to make it 1000 by May. If the Tories are ahead by 14% next May it’ll be too little to matter, of course, but you wouldn’t expect me to turn the offer down, would you? They’re perfectly well aware that I’m not just Labour but on the left of Labour - they think it’s nice that I’m honest about it.
Labour’s defence cuts combined with open door immigration and so called “positive discrimination” policies have leave us exposed.
I do hope proper precautions are taken for the upcoming remembrance and Lord Mayor parades.
365 its a second recount nick… what happens next?!
362 - He’s sat near Kilroy Silk.
A space hopper would look pale.
O/T and on X-Factor:
Are John + Edward worth a winning bet to trade later? Now 9.4 with Betfair. Top price 7/1 with the Bookies.
I’ve not been following X-Factor but John Edwards is the man for money.
2 months ago, Australian police arrested Somalis planning attacks on Australian barracks. Timing is coincidental
357 TSE
Not yet. He is still a novice. Look at how nervous he is tonight. Is it his first time on QT?
The BBC should have put someone on who could counter the televisual skills of Kilroy-Silk. It is just aggressive (and unrepresentative) populism.
Everton 0 Benfica 2 - the Curse of Brown strikes again. One presumes that it will be Hammer films producing his life story and Broon will be played by Sir Christopher Lee. Personally I think a better choice would be Peter Cushing even though he has been dead 20 years.
Meantime in the Telegraph they point to poor economic figures
” …revisions to previous months’ figures which showed that production fell by 0.8pc in the third quarter overall – worse than the 0.7pc fall assumed by the ONS in its first estimate of third-quarter GDP. It dashes hopes that the ONS will revise up that surprise fall in GDP, and cements suspicions that the UK is still mired in recession.
In a further blow, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggested that the fourth quarter got off to a bad start, with the economy contracting 0.6pc in October. ”
IF the 3Q figures are not revised up and 4Q still shows recession then Brown’s credibility will be in even more shreds than it is now.”
359 “Hood shooter Maj. Hasan was licensed psychiatrist from Maryland”
Are you suggesting licensed psychiatrists are a threat?
JARHEAD Election Results :
0330 hrs.
Con Gain Reading West
Con Gain Hendon
Con Gain Gloucester
Con Gain Warrington South
Con Win Meon Valley after recount. Maj 331
Con Gain Pudsey after recount. Maj 57.
Lib Dem Gain Eastbourne after second recount. Maj 37.
Second Recount Harborough
Con Gain Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Con Gain Tamworth
Lib Dem Gain Bristol North West
Tim, re our bet over the Lisbon referendum, I believe the terms of our bet, was Cameron would hold a referendum within 2yrs of winning the election. However considering the events of the last few days, I consider you the winner of our bet.
If you’re willing, I can roll this into our bet over the make up of the Tory MP’s after the election, and pool it into the meal deal we’ve got.
If not, I can pay you as soon as I get back to the UK, later on this weekend.
364. No it isnt.
372- Well if you’re a Scientologist I guess they are…
372 - Radovan Karadzic was a Psychiatrist
359 “Hood shooter Maj. Hasan was licensed psychiatrist from Maryland”
Kafeel Ahmed, of the Glasgow Airport attack, was a licensed engineer with a PhD in design and technology.
Errrrr Jack
Con gain Bristol NW at 0200
“”And 73% want the troops out of Afghanistan”"
Wonder if they asked the “73%” whether they were happy with the Taliban blowing schoolgirls to smithereens for the “crime” of wanting to read and write.
Wonder if they asked the “73%” whether they were happy with 40 year olds marrying 7 year old girls
Wonder if they asked whether they were happy with denying 28m Afghans democracy and the freedoms we take for granted.
Wonder if they asked whether they were happy with Al-Quaeda dancing on the graves of those who died in 7/7 and 9/11.
I’ve believed many things, but I’ll go to my dying day before I believe that this poll is anything more than the figment of YouGov’s imagination. We have both a national interest and (more importantly) a moral duty in Afghanistan which we must fufill.
359. And indeed using his psychiatry training in his job.
370 - Sadly, cant get BBC1 here in France, well not least in my hotel.
Shame he’s struggling. I really do rate him.
374 - Very gracious of you, yes you can roll it up and we’ll settle when Rory Stewart & Jacob Rees Mogg roll into Westminster.
356 ar. Lib Dems holding up well in sw. Tories doing well in most of the south and midlands but missing some targets in the northern marginals. Swing around 4% in marginals.
On topic, someone asked upthread about the trend of recent polls.
- The Conservatives have been 40+ in each of the last 24 polls, since the Labour conference.
- Labour has been in the twenties in each of the last eight polls and 30% or below in the last 16.
- The Tory lead has been in double figures in those same 16, of which:
- - Twelve have had a Tory lead in the range 13 to 17
- - Ten have had a Labour lead over the Lib Dems of between 7 and 10.
Give or take the spikes caused by short term events and statistical fluctuations, the baseline looks to be very much around 42/27/18.
382.TSE, watch it when you get back, and make up your own mind then.
379 ar. Mis-report by Beeb !!
383 - Very gracious of you too. I cant wait for Rory Stewart to roll into Westminster.
73% wanting withdrawal is good for the Tories.
20% wanting UK forces to stay is good for the Tories.
Having an army is good for the Tories - after 12 months of David Cameron as PM the Tories will need an army.
Thatcher + Brown = Cameron QED
365 – NPMP, many thanks for the time and effort in responding, can’t say I completely understand it, still sounds rather odd, but cheers anyway.
385 - Thanks for that David, shows some real trends.
386 - Will do, It’s sky plussed, for my viewing pleasure when I get back.
371. If Q4 can’t show positive growth with the Christmas boost and the looming rise in VAT, we really are in trouble.
The gunman at Fort Hood was named, Major Malik Nadal Hasan.
Hmm…
Afghan policeman shoots 5 British soldiers and then someone called Hasan shoots 12 in America.
I am no conspiracy theorist but …
I have just seen my vicar on the telly!
just been watching newsnight,camerons got all of europe scared shitless of him,good.
395 Con gain Bradford City!!!
395 I hope your viewing is more pleasant than the rubbish I am watching, Johnno.
393 You are not a conspiracy theorist, Trev? The bodies are barely cold and you have a theory?
Think I’ll wait for a few more facts to emerge.
Nite all.
A few reports now that he was an army psychologist being deployed to Iraq. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) seemed to know more and suggested he had become very distressed, she also suggested there was more than one shooter, that detail being a matter of some confusion across the media.
Check out Free Republic, they’ve collectively flipped out. There are UFO forums with saner members.
re 380 Matthew
Are you in favour of troops burning down white-owned farms, murdering the owner and rap-ing the women?
Are you in favour of people starving to death?
Are you in favour of people dying from an easily treatable disease because no medicine is let in?
No? Really? Then why don’t we have thousands of troops in Zimbabwe? Or Somalia for that matter?
395,we poor in quality,we’ll stay labour
test
401 for 396
Is anyone else apart from me finding the spam filter more than a tad irritating these days?
Just sent two identical posts. Can’t be bothered going through it word by word to try and identify the bad one.
401/3
Come on jack i want more results - its getting late!
393. No link, no conspiracy. Disparate events.
Last report for tonight !!
JARHEAD Election Results :
0400 hrs.
Con Gain Brighton Kemptown
Con Gain Northampton South
Con Gain Dorset South
Con Gain Redditch
Third Recount Broxtowe. Counting from 0900hrs.
Lib Dem Gain Newcastle Upon Tyne North
Lib Dem Gain Blaydon
Lib Dem Gain Edinburgh North
Con Gain Dumfries and Galloway
Con Gain Birmingham Edgbaston
Con Gain Derby South
Con Gain Milton Keynes North
Lab Hold Keighley after recount. Maj 345.
Lab Hold Dudley North after recount. Maj 481
Con Gain Hammersmith after recount. Maj 731.
Third recount Harborough
Con Gain Brentford and Isleworth
Con Gain Westminster South
Con Gain Nuneaton
407 ty jack! Looks like Con overall maj 2!!!
Well it was worth enduring QT just to see Dimbleby slap down the Peter “anti-democracy protester” Hain.
Nice one Dave…
Westminster South? Is that a new one?
“Lab Hold Keighley”
Hm, not sure about that one…
Large number of postal votes, Jack?
Glasgow NE election debate on STV tonight.
The Tory lass seemed a potential asset to the Scottish Parliament if she gets a winnable seat (might save her deposit in Glasgow NE).
The LD woman is a total embarassment (lost deposit).
Kerr (SNP) better than Bain (Lab) I reckon by a fair margin - though Bain has improved.
Useful innovation by STV to allow all the other minority parties some time to make a statement, instead of just being listed.
on a derisory turnout, I still expect a Labour win - details of increased voter roll and postal vote registration should be available soon.
389. Malcolm posting on pb is good for the Tories.
OMG my computer crashed and I had to reboot in the middle of Jack’s results!
Better not happen next May!
I think there needs to be some Con gains from the LDs - Torbay for Marcus Wood and Winchester so that Jack can claim bragging rights over OGH
409 Dave
A disappointing QT. I agree that it was worth the wait for Dimbleby’s intervention with Hain. I just wish he had intervened much earlier and more often when Kilroy-Silk and Hain spoke out of turn and over others. It was poorly chaired tonight.
377. Wasn’t Dolly Draper supposed to be a psychiatrist? Or at least he claimed he qualified as one, but was actually chucked off the course? I seem to remember Guido covering it.
Another little graph of mine. Swingback in action?
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/swingback.jpg
Tory seat projections might be a better indicator than the polls.
Notice how in the first half of the parliament [excluding the Brown bounce] the Tories kept making higher highs.
Since mid-2008 they have been receding, and making lower highs [ignoring the weird polls from last Xmas] ….
415
Sorry. Should have been addressed to Bob Sykes not Dave!
410 SCurious. Sorry, should have been Westminster North not South.
411 Bob. Bags and bags of them !!
Con gain Derby S?
Surely you mean Con gain DerbySHIRE S?
Con gain Westminster N you mean?
If Con gain Halifax then they would gain Keighley.
414 ar. Who knows what might happen in the morning !!
Nite all …..
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
393 “I am no conspiracy theorist but”
People get triggered by stuff, copy-cat, especially nutters, and as everyone knows all shrinks are [fill in blank].
417. RodC
So if you exclude or ignore anything that doesn’t fit your theory then your theory works?
393
Not a conspiracy theorist, just a thoughtless big mouth.
415,I agree,it was poorly chaired,kilroy-silk was making a bloody good point on andrew neather and then dimbleby cut him off that point.
Labour are trying to smooth over relations with the Scottish Whisky industry before the GE.
Herald - Whisky industry to be protected by new laws
423. The graph is not theory, but fact - as far as it can be inferred from the polls…
David Kerr (SNP) the clear winner of the STV Debate on the Glasgow NE By-Election.
425. Kilroy was wheeled out to attack the Tories not Labour. Dimbleby was clearly not tolerating anything off message from him.
426 - Wonder what the EU will make of that?
392 “If Q4 can’t show positive growth with the Christmas boost and the looming rise in VAT, we really are in trouble.”
Number is seasonally adjusted.
I find it hard to believe October was -0.6% though, but my word if its true and the rest of the quarter cant pull it back I cant wait to see Crash Gordons response. What a joke he is.
428,totally agree.
FPT another richard:
“This is getting seriously frightening.
I had thought we would get strong growth in qtr4 as spending is brought forward before the VAT increase followed by a fall back into contraction in qtr1 next year.
If the best we can hope for is 0.2% growth in qtr4 then we’re looking at game over for the UK economy.”
392. David Herdson
“If Q4 can’t show positive growth with the Christmas boost and the looming rise in VAT, we really are in trouble.”
What does happen if there is no growth in qtr4?
The figures will be released late January, what would Brown do?, what would the Labour plotters do?
How would the election timing be affected? Could Labour still risk a May election with the qtr1 figures released a week beforehand showing an 8 quarter recession?
Telegraph - Gordon Brown: risk of British failure in Afghanistan is real
“In an address intended to shore up public support for the operation, the Prime Minister will accept for the first time that international efforts to stabilise Afghanistan, which began eight years ago, may not succeed.
Describing the Afghan mission as a “conflict of necessity not choice,” Mr Brown will insist despite growing doubts over the continued deployment of British troops, “we cannot, must not and will not walk away”.
However, following the deaths of seven soldiers in six days, he will also raise the prospect of defeat. “We entered together eight years ago,” he will say. “We must persist together; in our different ways we must all contribute; in the end we will succeed or fail together.””
427. Rod Crosby.
Assuming your dubious seat projections are facts, of course.
432. Why is Britain faring so badly when other major economies are coming out of recession? I struggle to follow this stuff and any explanation would be most welcome!
433 ChristinaD
I’m very angry at Gordon Brown.
We need someone of the calibre of Tony Blair or David Cameron to persuade us of the case for war. We need someone with guts, and the ability to communicate them.
Gordon Brown is such a pathetic communicator, and has so badly handled Afghanistan, that he is actively destroying public trust in a cause I believe very strongly in.
What a terrible excuse for a so-called leader.
433 - spooky Christina, I was about to post the same paragraphs..
In other words Brown is right behind our soldiers.
Four thousand miles behind.
It’s put up or shut up time for politicians - either fight the war to win, which means increasing defence spending, or get out.
“We hope we will leave Afghanistan without firing a single shot” John Reid - Defence Secretary …
435 - I know what you mean Polly, I see it like this - the bigger the hole the longer it takes to climb out.
Telegraph - Barack Obama’s ‘dithering’ hurts Afghan mission, British sources say
“The Daily Telegraph has learned that there is growing frustration in Whitehall at the US president’s prolonged deliberations over Afghanistan.
Since early September, Mr Obama has been considering a review of Afghan strategy by General Stanley McChrystal, who has advised the president to send an extra 40,000 US troops to Afghanistan.
As well as troop numbers, Mr Obama and his advisers are also considering the fundamental Western strategy in Afghanistan, trying to decide how much emphasis to put on counter-insurgency operations against the Taliban and how much to put on hunting down al-Qaeda terrorists.
The president’s long decision-making process has led to accusations of “dithering” by his Republican opponents. The White House says the decision is too important to hurry, but the wait is causing growing exasperation in London and other European capitals.
One British source said that the absence of a clear strategy from the US, the largest troop contributor in Afghanistan, is hampering the British Government’s attempts to maintain public support for an increasingly unpopular conflict.
“The truth is that until we have some clarity from Obama, it’s going to be hard for us to explain to people what we’re doing there,” the source said”
Britain is urging Hamid Karzai to send more Afghan forces to Helmand province to support British troops there.
Mr Karzai was returned for second term this week after an election widely agreed to have been flawed and corrupt.
“We need the Americans to have a clear message for Karzai about what he has to do, but that’s just not there at the moment,” said the British source.
The private frustrations of British ministers and commanders were echoed by General Lord Guthrie, a former Chief of the Defence Staff, who said the American deliberations had brought the Afghan mission to a pivotal moment.
“It’s a tipping point because of President Obama’s delayed decision on whether to send more troops,” Lord Guthrie said.
Speaking in Paris, Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, also suggested that the lack of leadership from Washington was hampering the Afghan mission.
“What is the goal? What is the road? And in the name of what?” Mr Kouchner was reported as saying. “Where are the Americans? It begins to be a problem.”
Downing Street said the Prime Minister supported Mr Obama’s deliberations, and said it was “important that he comes to a considered decision” but hinted that a quick decision would be welcome.
A spokesman for Gordon Brown said: “Obviously, we are waiting for the US announce the outcome. Let’s hope we can come together soon.” “
There appears to be a reasonable chance the BNP could come third in Glasgow North East according to Labour MPs who have been canvassing there:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6905279.ece
Otherwise Labour appear to be confident of winning.
In all seriousness, Jack, where do these projections come from?
I do see most of them as very reasonable.
441 ChristinaD
On this, they are absolutely right. Obama is dithering, and our mission is dying.
There is an awful lot to be said for deliberation and good planning - but ultimately, he has to make the decision.
440. Thanks LTL - that I can understand. Looks like Osborne will be thoroughly vindicated.
RodC
So your graph has shown a predicted Conservative majority for all of 2009.
Therefore you predict with certainty a hung parliament.
434. They are no more dubious than anyone else’s, and everyone’s will show a more or less identical pattern, whatever methodology is used, provided it’s applied consistently…
436 wibbler
Why do you want “someone of the calibre of Tony Blair or David Cameron to persuade us of the case for war”, when it is “a cause I believe very strongly in”?
You mean that you want someone to persuade those people who don’t agree with you.
436.wibbler, I agree. I have no truck with Bush or Blair, but at least they showed leadership and did put forward their arguments for going into Iraq and Afghanistan whether you agreed with them or not. And very angry at the mistakes they made. But we are not learning from them, and having followed the conflict in Afghanistan closely, I am even more concerned at the leadership of Obama and Brown and their Nato cohorts. No one is taking charge. and the Nato alliance fatally faltered at the worst moment possible.
Tim asked about the position of Cameron and Fox up thread, and the frustrating thing is that it doesn’t matter right now. Its what our current leaders do in the next couple of months that will dictate our future in this country. And if they decide to continue the status quo or some half arsed ‘Rumsfeld’ fudge, then we need to get the hell out of there whatever the views of some in the Conservative party regarding the longer term ramifications for security and terrorism. Either do the job properly or don’t bother doing it at all.
Obama had the cards dealt to him by Bush and Blair, but if he wants to succeed, or fail and withdraw, then he has wasted both opportunities over the last year.
I thought I recognized him! The hapless Labour PPC for Reading, Naz Sarkar, was on Question Time, and was allowed to make a comment about how Tory policy on Europe would cost jobs.
Surely any elected or prospective elected official or public official should declare their interest before being allowed to speak?
449And?? I am. Doh
435. PollyB
Ever heard of a Ponzi scheme or pyramid selling?
That’s the UK economy.
We thought we could all get rich by selling houses to each other and then selling the resulting debt to each other.
Too much borrowing not enough saving.
Too much spending not enough investing.
Too much wealth consumption not enough wealth creation.
Too much imports not enough exports.
446. I don’t predict anything with certainty. But for those who doubt the principle of swingback, the evidence is that it has been occurring already for over a year…
448 oldnat
Yes, you are right.
I believe that the case for Afghanistan is very strong, based on what happened when Pakistan ceded Malakand to the Pakistani Taliban. It quickly became a haven for terrorist, just last year.
Yet you never hear this cited.
Gordon Brown is utterly incompetent. By not making the case, and more importantly, by obviously not having the conviction, he is draining public confidence on an issue which I genuinely believe is of vital importance for the future security of the West.
442. I’d be surprised if the BNP take third place, although it’s not so implausible that they might save their deposit. As for your point about Labour’s confidence of victory, as far as I can see all the article actually says about that is - “Political observers say that the SNP campaign has failed to develop any real momentum.” - which is a typical Angus MacLeod non-statement, ie. he’s been talking to himself and he found what he heard highly persuasive.
What a throughly patronising git Ian Blair is! How cool that Boris The Brave did us all a favour and gave him the sack!
Q4 growth isnt looking likely…
“The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that output had continued to fall in October, dampening hopes that the economy will return to growth in the final quarter of the year. The think-tank, which uses economic models similar to those of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), calculated that GDP fell by 0.6 per cent last month”
And those looking for a Q3 upward revison: “Industrial production figures released yesterday depressed hope that the third-quarter GDP figures may be increased later this month. Industrial output fell by 0.8 per cent in the three months to September, official data showed, a bigger drop than the 0.7 per cent estimate used by the ONS to calculate the health of the economy”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6905537.ece
453. RodCrosby.
The “principle of swingback” is trivial.
I’ve never had a problem with the idea that governments popularity swings back from its lowest point in the Parliamentary cycle. My problem is with Rods near certainty that it will swing back enough to prevent the Conservatives securing a majority.
444.Wibbler, this is something I have been worrying about for a wee while now, although not really voiced strongly on here. There is a vacuum in afghans tan right now, and we have some bloody brave soldiers out there doing the best job they can with the resources they have. But it ain’t enough, and it never has been since 2006.
They can only do so much, but they cannot fight the Taliban and hold the ground taken from them in the long term while simultaneously providing both civilian security and an attempt to build infrastructure with what they have to hand right now. Neither can they then build the intelligence network necessary to really undermine and prevent the Taliban functioning effectively either.
This was a vital year for the whole Afghan war, and those elections really mattered. But we blew it big time, and the current situation is the result.
Re my post at 454
Incidentally, I will never forgive Tony Blair for taking us into Iraq. He will rot in hell for it.
But by God, he could argue convincingly of the case. Nobody else came close to making you want to believe.
My single biggest issue with Cameron is the fact that he still thinks Iraq was right, knowing what he knows now.
But Afghanistan is different. The fact that we lost focus by going into Iraq was the biggest foreign policy mistake I can remember.
457. This was highlited on an earlier thread. Ig Q4 does indeed come in negative it will truely be a disaster for the UK in general and one James Gordon Brown in particular.
RodC
But your swingback theory is based on byelections so that should have improved the Conservative position because of the effect of Norwich North.
In any case where is the evidence that the Conservative lead is falling?
Oct 2008 (11 polls)
Avg Con lead 11.6%
Nov 2008 (11 polls)
Avg Con lead 8.5%
Oct 2009 (23 polls)
Avg Con lead 13.8%
Nov 2009 (1 poll)
Avg Con lead 14.0%
If you measure the present position from when the Conservatives were at their peak then their lead has fallen, if you measure the Conservative lead from when Labour was at their peak then the Conservative lead has increased.
What does it prove?
Nothing.
454 wibbler
But Tony Blair didn’t convince me (or many other people either) of the benefits of an interventionist policy previously. I’m not sure why you think that another such would persuade us.
I missed the last five minutes - what prompted Dimbleby’s spat with Hain?
450 wibbler
I thought I recognised him too. Pity he wasn’t given more time, as in his Radio Berkshire interview. Let us remind ourselves.
Here he is
464 oldnat
He managed to convince enough people in 2005 to vote for him with a big majority - including in Scotland.
He didn’t convince me, or you, but he convinced the British public.
465 Sunil Prasannan
Hain repeating his objections to Griffin being invited onto QT. Dimbleby pointing out that Hain has threatened never to appear again on QT but had changed his position within two weeks. Hain repeating objection. Dimbleby quoting audience research showing up to 80% of viewers supported BBC decision.
463. The Tory lead has become smaller since the high water mark in July-September 2008, so swingback has/did occur. But this hasn’t and won’t be enough to prevent a Conservative majority.
I’m convinced because of what he posts on here that what Rod has done is to take the sound idea of swingback and forced the theory to fit his prefered/desired outcome. Rod hates David Cameron and the Tories. Loves PR. Wants a referendum so PR can be introduced and knows that will only happen with a hung parliament. And hey presto what does his model forecast? A hung parliament. Rod and his theory have been very badly compromised by his tone and behaviour over the past few years.
459. Yes, and at first glance it looks like Labour could run out of road.
We shall see…
464 oldnat
Also, remember, this the attack on Afghanistan was in response to an attack in which 67 British nationals died - it was certainly a good deal less “interventionist” than Iraq.
We mustn’t forget Rumsfeld from the list of eternal shame. As well as being one of the architects of war in Iraq, he totally botched the actual tactics and strategy in Afghanistan early on as well. He let OBL and Mullah Omar get away, he didn’t send enough troops, and didn’t plan for any sort of transition. He is responsible for this mess too.
467 wibbler
Good point. I don’t despair of democracy - but I sometimes despair of the media!
Stuart Rose sums it up in three words:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6503819/UK-is-skint-says-Marks-and-Spencers-Sir-Stuart-Rose.html
461. wibbler
“But Afghanistan is different. The fact that we lost focus by going into Iraq was the biggest foreign policy mistake I can remember.”
I really don’t buy this argument that without Iraq Afghanistan would have been a success.
They would still have done Afghanistan on the cheap, Karsai would still be a corrupt incompetant and the whole country would still have been a backward shi**ole.
470. Do I detect a little bit of doubt beginning to creap in Mr C?
468. Thanks for that. Just lost interest near the end - obviously prematurely!
From the Telegraph comes more reassuring financial news:
“Fears for future of Pension Protection Fund after £1.23bn deficit
Questions have been raised about the viability of Britain’s pensions lifeboat after its deficit more than doubled to £1.23bn.
By Philip Aldrick
Published: 7:38PM GMT 05 Nov 2009
Experts said the Government would need to consider a “plan B” if the shortfall continues to rise as companies go bust in the recession. Concerns were voiced after the Pension Protection Fund, which partially protects the retirement benefits of staff whose companies collapse, revealed that its deficit for the year to March 2009 had risen from £517m to £1.23bn.”
Is everything that the government is involved with in deficit?
435 My take. Could be wrong.
The British economy was the city, some manufacturing and a massive amount of hot air (cheap credit). The hot air has gone and there’s not enough manufacturing to make up for it. Once we finally hit bottom (i expect another big dip) then we’ll be stuck there for years.
The US is roughly in the same boat as we are but because the dollar is the reserve currency they can afford to pump a ton more hot air (stimulus) into the system by massively over-borrowing. If the rest of the world decides to switch out of the dollar then i imagine bad things will happen to this strategy but not entirely sure.
Countries like Germany dipped a bit faster than us as their manufacturing shrunk but also come out of it faster as demand picks up again.
474 another richard
Maybe, but it would have had a much better shot of success if our political leaders had their focus there instead of on Iraq.
It’s not really possible to argue a counterfactual very cogently, but I do believe that if our political eyes had been on Afghanistan rather than Iraq, we might not have cocked up the counter-narcotics strategy. We might not have outsourced the job to warlords when key targets were trapped in Tora Bora. We might have been more bothered about the lack of early investment in infrastructure and training for local troops and police for when we DID need them to provide local security. We might have made more of a noise, earlier, about the definition of our mission. We might have had more helicopters for our troops if more political pressure was there. We might have been more aware of Karzai’s regime if we weren’t so distracted by trying to fix Chalabi’s.
Maybe not, but there is no chance whatsoever that we would have done worse.
471 wibbler
I had no problem with surgical strikes against Al Quaida camps (if my nephew hadn’t been sick on 9/11 he might have been a victim). However, the problem is hugely complex. My understanding is that the Taliban would have been willing to seize Bin Laden themselves if he could have been tried outwith the USA. The Taliban is essentially a Pashtun (not Afghan or Pakistani) organisation. Their social structure is not one which is easily comprehensible by Americans (or modern Brits).
Direct action is fine - but it has to achieve what it intends, and the war in Afghanistan does the opposite of that.
467. “He managed to convince enough people in 2005 to vote for him with a big majority”
He may have convinced ‘enough’ people to vote him, but I’d hardly call 35% to the Tories’ 32% and the Lib Dems’ 22% an overwhelming mandate.
475. GIN
To be fair to RodC if there had been an election last November/December he might have been hailed as a pseophological genius.
Perhaps RodC should reboot his byelection swingback model to restart again from 01/01/09, after all its not RodC’s fault that Brown is a bottler.
So lets see byelections since 01/01/09 - Norwich North 16.5% swing.
475. There is always doubt in stats. I would still rate a HP at a significantly greater than 50% chance. A further relatively small Labour recovery would do it.
461.”My single biggest issue with Cameron is the fact that he still thinks Iraq was right, knowing what he knows now.”
Wibbler, Cameron had his doubts and asked all the right questions before Iraq, that much is clear, and then he voted with his party on the issue as a young MP. Next time he is faced with such a difficult decision, he could be our PM.
Like Obama last year, he has Afghanistan waiting for him if the Tories win the next GE. Obama has been President for nearly a year, McCrystal’s report has been lying there for three months, and we now know there will not be another election in Afghanistan. And still we are waiting to see what he does. I hope that Cameron has got the cojones to not blindly follow Obama on this if his instincts tell him that the American President is making the wrong decision for our troops out there.
482. another richard.
At the very least by-elections before 27 June 2007 should be discarded or heavily discounted as they belong to a different era.
478. MrJones
“The British economy was the city, some manufacturing and a massive amount of hot air (cheap credit). The hot air has gone and there’s not enough manufacturing to make up for it. Once we finally hit bottom (i expect another big dip) then we’ll be stuck there for years.”
A good description but I would add agriculture and energy to manufacturing.
I think the UK is the only major country that is a nett importer of food, a nett importer of energy and a nett importer of manufactured goods.
But we do have the biggest vampire banks in the world.
485. Regression analysis since 1945 with a dummy variable for a change of PM shows no significant difference in the swingback…
480 oldnat
This very year, when the Pakistani government ceded control of Malakand province to the Tehrek-e-Taliban Pakistan, terrorist training camps were immediately set up, and radicalization rapidly became even more common in places like Quetta and Peshawar and even Lahore.
We don’t need to guess what would happen, because we have seen it, live and in colour, just this year. Why are you so easily willing to discard the experience of Buner?
Most of the Taliban is Pashtun, and there are several strands within the Taliban. I agree with you completely on this. We certainly need to seperate out those who can be bought, those who can be wooed, and those who are willing to participate in some sort of political process.
However, it is foolish to say that we can never understand the dynamics. The Taliban is a very modern construct - only in existence for 15 years or so. It is simultaneously a religious movement, a political movement, and an ethnic movement - it isn’t impossible to get Pashtuns who still venerate the memory and glory of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan who will willingly help defeat this evil.
Afghans know the ethnic makeup of the Taliban pretty well, and overwhelmingly support our mission there. For my purposes, though, and the purposes of most commentators, “the Taliban” refers to the irreconcilable elements under Mullah Omar, of the Mehsud tribe in Pakistan, etc.
485. LondonStatto
Quite so.
I note that Anthony Wells has various weightings and adjustments in his formula for UKPR’s current prediction.
Perhaps RodC should use something similar.
Clearly more recent byelections are more relevant, as are those in battleground seats.
479.Wibbler, excellent post. Bang on the money!
484 ChristinaD
Cameron has been asked repeatedly, would you go into Iraq, knowing what you know now?
If intelligence genuinely indicated our country was 45 minutes away from being annhilated, at the hands of an unstable madman, then war was the right decision. Tony Blair lied about the case for war, and there was no shame in voting “yes” at the time.
In my mind, there is tremendous shame in still thinking that was the correct decision, now knowing how much Tony Blair lied. I completely respect the way Cameron voted then, though I disagreed with it because I didn’t believe Tony Blair at the time.
This isn’t about Cameron as a young MP. This is about Cameron NOW.
He says, NOW, that he would still have gone in, even if WMD weren’t an issue - in other words, for regime change alone. That is an incredibly stupid position, in my eyes.
487. RodCrosby.
There you go again, thinking 1945 is relevant to the unique situation we are currently in.
And that’s the big flaw in all attempts to project seats from votes: we’ve never had an election like the next (Con attempting to take over from Lab with a strong third party).
488.And the Taliban is situated in one area, and evolving constantly in a way that Al Qaeda has not managed to do, that organisation is now fragmented.
Re my post at 488.
My mistake, the Taliban have been in existence longer than 15 years. I meant to say they have only really been a distinct and relatively powerful force, distinct from the Mujahadin, for about 15 years.
This YouGov is pretty much bang on the consensus position of all the polls, which I currently estimate at 41-27-18.
Thus Labour has recovered by about one point from its nadir[*] of last summer, when from June to mid-September the consensus position scarcely moved from 45-26-17.
[*] excluding the bizarre period of the expenses scandal when the Others temporarily spiked at a ridiculous 20% or even slightly higher.
491.”He says, NOW, that he would still have gone in, even if WMD weren’t an issue - in other words, for regime change alone. That is an incredibly stupid position, in my eyes.”
Wibbler, I never thought that WMD was the issue right at the start of the Iraq conflict, that was simple the vehicle that Blair chose to fight for that invasion. I don’t quite see Cameron’s position in that light, but then I followed his time when Howard was leader as well.
We are where we are, and like Obama and Brown, he will be judged on what he does over the issue of Afghanistan if he is elected to be our PM. And I am not going to give him my unequivocal support on this issue right now. He is going to have to earn it with what he does in office.
488 wibbler
I wasn’t saying “we can never understand the dynamics”. Simply that the Americans and modern Brits haven’t. Neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan are “countries” in the way that the West understands the term. The Pashtun have never really accepted the division of their nation between these different states.
The current war has no real rationale. there are many states where their definition of human rights doesn’t live up to our standards (that applied to Switzerland in terms of women’s suffrage up to 1971, and Sweden in terms of compulsory sterilisation up to 1976).
The only sensible rationale is attacking centres where we are at risk (Eritrea?) rather than implementing regime change for wider political reasons.
492. “we’ve never had an election like the next (Con attempting to take over from Lab with a strong third party).”
Yawn… Oct 1974?
No election is “unique.” They all contain memory of the last election….
Incidentally, I disagree with Cameron on many many things.
I disagree on the inheritance tax cut - it is a great policy, but not as great as cutting the national deficit.
I disagree on foxhunting - I think it should be banned.
I think he is too timid in his approach to reforming the NHS, taking too much of a producer interest rather than a user interest.
I disagree with the policy on the treatment of scientific advisors.
Overall, though, I am extremely happy with the direction of his policy. He believes in fiscal discipline, like me. He believes in good public services, though not necessarily run by the state, like me. He supports the NHS, like me. His education policy is going to be completely transformative. He believes in lower taxes, like me. He is a moderate Eurosceptic, like me. He is moderate libertarian, but not excessively so, like me. His ideas for a national citizenship programme for young people are excellent. I admire him for his leadership in getting the Conservative party, to tackle climate change, if only grudgingly, under the figleaf of energy security. He believes firmly in the Union, like me. He will inspire confidence in our country, like Blair did, because he is like Blair. He is willing to triagulate to the more sensible Lib Dem policies, many of which I agree with. He is a political centrist and pragmatist on most things, like me.
I have now decided that I will vote Conservative at the next election - but it is still an anti-Labour vote rather than a pro-Tory vote. I know it doesn’t matter a fig to the Conservative party, but it matters to me.
The one thing that would probably make me a fully vested Cameroon is an acknowledgement that Iraq was wrong.
YouGov Poll
If the Scotland figures are omitted, then the figures for England & Wales are:
Cons: 43%; Lab 26.5%; LD 17%; Others. 13.5%
498. RodCrosby: “Oct 1974?”
Libs went in with 14 seats (and lost one!). That’s worlds apart from the current strength of the LDs.
It also followed a hung parliament, which is distinct from the current situation.
499.”I have now decided that I will vote Conservative at the next election - but it is still an anti-Labour vote rather than a pro-Tory vote. I know it doesn’t matter a fig to the Conservative party, but it matters to me.
The one thing that would probably make me a fully vested Cameroon is an acknowledgement that Iraq was wrong.”
Wibbler, wow!
PS. Iraq is in the past, the one thing that will make me a fully vested Cameroon (contrary to the opinion of some on here who think I hero worship him), would be making the right decisions over Afghanistan in the future.
500.I suppose I better show some interest and ask, what are the Scottish figures on a tiny YouGov subsample this week?
Are the SNP beating Labour, or is the Tories rewriting history and beating Labour, or are the Libdems on single/double figures winning here?
497 oldnat
But we are not implementing regime change in Afghanistan to improve women’s rights, or to attack the drug culture, or build roads for poor people in Afghanistan.
We are there to prevent attacks in Britain, and to capture or kill Al-Queda.
Gordon Brown has made a pig’s ear of explaining this.
Here is how I think a withdrawal would unfold, based entirely on what happened earlier this year in Pakistan.
The Taliban would impose their social agenda again. They would behead people for shaving, or listening to music, or being female and seeking education. This in itself is awful, but not a reason for us to stay.
Next, they would start forcing young people to radicalize themselves in outposts, both Pakistani and Afghani. Recruitment for the TTP and Jamaat-i-Islami in Pakistan would rocket. Quetta in particular would descend into civil war between the MQM and the Pashtuns. We will see a massive increase in suicide bombings throughout Pakistan. The Pakistani army will pull out of NWFP and FATA because they will be forced to defend Baluchistan, which is of far greater strategic importance, though they will of course try to fence off Peshawar.
The pressure eased, Tehrek-e-Taliban Pakistan will start growing again, and go over to train in Afghanistan. Same for Lashkar-e-Taiba, various Wahhabist groups loosely affiliated to al-Queda, though probably not “core” al-Queda people.
More British-based Pakistanis will become radicalized in the new crazy-friendly environment. They will train, either in the unstable regions of Pakistan, or in Afghanistan. We will see more of them trained in terrorist techniques.
The upshot is, we will almost certainly see attacks, probably in the Mumbai mould, in the West - just as Pakistan saw a massive upsurge after they partially yielded to the Pakistani Taliban.
Incidentally, anyone who wants to comment on Pakistan should read this first
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4782&page=1
503.Or *are* not *is*! Time for bed I think. I will just pretend I speak only Doric.
Bizarre picture of Duncan - was it taken after the decision today, or is it an archive shot (which would be seriously nasty of the Times)?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6905441.ece
507.Fitting end to the story.
501. “That’s worlds apart from the current strength of the LDs.”
Not in terms of votes it isn’t! [the Libs got 18.8% in Oct 1974, which shows how far they've come in terms of vote efficiency]
Anyhow, I think I’ve demonstrated you don’t know much about this subject…
“Unique” - pah!
504.Bottom line, do we want the Taliban running Afghanistan or vital area’s in Pakistan what ever their social policies?
Sky: Texas killer “came to attention of authorities” six months ago, after discussing suicide bombings on internet….
Oooops…..
From Guido
http://order-order.com/2009/11/05/power-before-principle/
“Guido has been told that three weeks ago Margaret Thatcher wrote a personal plea to her great admirer Václav Klaus, to stand firm, in the hope of strengthening his resolve. It was to be delivered by William Hague. It still rests on his desk.”
If true, that’s a wow.
ChristinaD
From 110
Scottish sub-sample (114 respondents; usual caveats apply) from this YouGov/Channel 4 poll (+/- change from UK GE 2005):
Lab 32% (-7)
oth 32% (+10)
Con 19% (+3)
LD 17% (-6)
ChristinaD
We both know that the Scottish subsamples are meaningless, so neither of us should pay much attention.
511 RodCrosby
That’s extremely serious, if true.
Someone very senior will have to carry the can - and Obama will, rightly, be under massive pressure to explain it.
This is not just another tragic American gun-loon incident, largely because of the shooter’s name. If Obama doesn’t handle this right, it could be the “unknown unknown” which derails his Presidency.
Antonia Senior argues a good case for a written constitution in the Times today..
“How to protect ourselves from Eurocreep
Britain’s lack of a written constitution allows politicians to treat voters with contempt. We have never needed one more”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6905283.ece
513.Thanks Financier.
514.oldnat, agreed.
513. MOE 8.6%. Valueless subsample…
Although the estimates are not incredible, if by “oth” you mean the SNP…
505 wibbler
I agree that these comments should be generally known.
On your wider scenario, we are generally in agreement. Where we differ is that military intervention by the West can impose the continuation of imperial boundaries and Western requirements.
I’m quite happy with drone attacks on intelligence based targets. However, there is a wider need to recognise that just as Europe fought savage internecine wars to rid themselves of internal imperialism, other parts of the world probably need to go through the same process to rid themselves of externally imposed imperialism.
We just need to avoid interference with that process - which is what makes us the target.
515. I don’t quite follow why the Prez is implicated (apart from his hidden Muslim background).
Did Bush “carry the can” for 911? No, he got re-elected….
512
Could Maggie actually write a letter to Klaus? I know she suffers from dementia and it’s quite bad these days so I have my doubts.
Texas press conference…
WHOOA..
KILLER ALIVE AND IN CUSTODY….
Cover-up???????????????????????????????????
520 RodCrosby
This incident will definitely stoke up racial tensions in America, far more than the tea-party Limbaugh-wing have managed so far. I am sure there will be “revenge” attacks - this was, after all, Texas.
If Obama is seen as “weak on national security”, his administration having ignored warnings about the shooter in the past, he will have real problems.
523- Shot multiple times, but stable?!
512/521. If it is true, which I also doubt, Hague was very sensible not to deliver the letter.
LTL, a BRITISH constitution cannot be written to cover english law and then an assumption made that it also covers scotland.
if megrahi showed one thing it was that the scottish judiciary is not ruled by westminster.
WTF,
Housing association rents to fall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8345718.stm
521.Tiger, so do I. And the thought that Hague kept such a letter on his desk without passing it on is incredible. As is the fact that the contents of the letter would have changed the outcome this week.
523.Not a cover up, just chaos in the media and a need to know who else was involved.
Hasan sounds like he should have been picked up well before this happened
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6511591/Fort-Hood-shooting-Nidal-Malik-Hasan-said-Muslims-should-rise-up.html
527
I would also have serious concerns about who was writing it. It seems there are few politicians out there today who would be happy to continue to ensure that the safeguards in the unwritten constitution regarding then relationship between the state and the peopple are properly maintained. A written constitution would be the start of a proscriptive process which I fear would place more power in the hands of the state.
531. “Mr Hasan said his cousin was a US-born Muslim who had joined the military after high school.”
Oh, dear….
521 I had doubts for the same reason.
526 Sensible from one side’s point of view maybe. If true my opinion of him plummets.
529
Would Guido put thaht out if it were not true? I don’t know which is why I am asking. What is his record on accuracy as I have not followed it closely?
That someone is suffering from dementia is does not necessarily mean they do not have periods of lucidity. It all depends on the type and severity of the dementia. And perhaps a letter from someone who was so involved in the fall of the Berlin Wall might sway someone like Klaus, although personally I doubt it.
527 / 532 - both your points noted, a provocative article isn’t it
535 Not knowingly. I’m just always sceptical unless there’s a few sources.
531.Totally agree. What happened to that American soldier who simple wandered off from his base in Afghanistan a couple of months ago? Not heard anything since?
I reckon it’s Guido just whipping up a fuss because he’s pissed Dave didn’t give him a referendum pledge.
People can be spiteful.
OT - What’s all this Ed balls crap about giving 5 year olds s e x education ? I’m still getting over my youngest at 10 years old suddenly asking me ‘Mum, why didn’t you tell me you had a v@gina ?’ OMG I was doing 65 on the motorway at the time and nearly came off!
533.
How come the British Brainwashing Corporation immediately stated “Christian or Israeli” - in other words, for the hard of hearing, NOT A MUSLIM…..?
540 - did they though, or was that just a pb poster take on it?
539.LTL, or my youngest coming home in a high dungeon after lessons only to demand why I signed the conform form. Seriously, he informed me that he was too young for all this nonsense, he had a life. And he informed me that when the teacher started talking about sex (cue shudder), well he knew where that one was going.
539- Don’t think it will be that graphic for 5 year olds…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8344373.stm
*Sex and relationship education - who does what?*
Age 5-7 - puberty, relationships and how to keep safe
Age 7 - 11 - puberty, relationships including marriage, divorce, separation, same sex and civil partnerships and managing emotions and dealing with negative pressures
Age 11 - 14 - Sexual activity, human reproduction, contraception, pregnancy, STDs including HIV/Aids and high risk behaviours, relationships, including those between old, young, girls, boys and same sex
Age 14 - 16 - Body image and health, choices relating to sexual activity and substance misuse, and the emotional well-being, reducing risk and minimising harm, parenting skills and family life, separation, divorce and bereavements, prejudice and bullying
LTL, a british constitution would in some crypto-brownian world be of political benefit as it would also aim to define britishness, something which brown has failed to do effectively.
we have had him promoting british public holidays which could not cover the whole of britain, and trying to hold a national british day of celebration and other orwellian aspects that fell by the wayside as people could not have cared less after being told what to believe.
541. I assume regular PBers don’t post downright lies here. Anything’s possible, I suppose..
539 Cultural marxism (although he may not realise that’s what it is).
540 I think that was a joke.
with the 2007 london bombers in england being yorkshire muslims and this chap in texas being amuslim, the facts remain that until norwegian nuns start causing terrorist attacks, there has to be a certain degree of profiling in some communities more than others.
the politically correct and need for fair play means that rather than cause a scene, some people are allowed to stay in the system who are clearly demented.
why any muslim joining the US army would not imagine he would have to kill fellow muslims defies logic. it is part of the brief when they get to afghanistan or iraq. at this timethe focus is there, so if you cannot kill muslims then do not join the army.
and again we come back to the key issue, are muslims citizens of the country they live in first or muslims first, as clearly citizens of the country will not kill their fellow citizenry.
533. “Sensible from one side’s point of view maybe. If true my opinion of him plummets.”
Not a question of sides so much as tactics. The letter wouldn’t have had the slightest effect other than to make the Tories look desperate and ridiculous.
543.Why we can’t we simple let kids be kids for a while longer?
545 - dig at the beeb was what was intended I believe..
546 - call me old fashioned but I think kids are losing enough of their childhood already these days.
My youngest is 15 and still getting sex education regularily it seems, all I got was a Jesuit priest with a red face and eyes looking anywhere but at the class in front of him..
549.Oops, why can’t we.
with the 2007 london bombers in england being yorkshire muslims and this chap in texas being a muslim, the facts remain that until norwegian nuns start causing terrorist attacks, there has to be a certain degree of profiling in some communities more than others.
as they happen to be the chapppies who do the nasty stuff.
the politically correct and need for fair play means that rather than cause a scene, some people are allowed to stay in the system who are clearly demented.
why any muslim joining the US army would not imagine he would have to kill fellow muslims defies logic. it is part of the brief when they get to afghanistan or iraq. at this time the focus is there, so if you cannot kill, or toning it down if you are not PREPARED to shoot muslims then do not join the army.
and again we come back to the key issue, are muslims citizens of the country they live in first or muslims first, as clearly citizens of the country will not kill their fellow citizenry.
this will have a backlash, with muslims who ask to join the army in the UK or USA going through an even harder time than anyone else to prove they are not trainee terrorists. hard enough to et the minorities to join the police let alone the army i would have thought, despite the fact “The Bill” seems to make the Met a more multicultural force than even a QT audience, which is not what I see when i look around London on my trips back.
543 - scarface..
“Age 5-7 - puberty, relationships and how to keep safe”
I wonder if that means making sure your parents have been CRB checked. It’s b0llocks, if you pardon the language.
Europe rejecting Cameron’s silly little plan is good for the Tories.
Upsetting Poland, Ireland, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Germany is good for the Tories.
Having many Tory posters on pb.com spouting nonsense is good for the Tories.
We have the worst PM since Blair in office and the only alternative is a man like Cameron. Sad, so sad. Britain always gets what it deserves; its called democracy.
Poor little Willy Hague, he seems to be returning to his adolescent days of Hilda adoration.
Little Willy is good for the Tories.
548. You don’t know what the effect would have been. I think it would have made a slight difference if it chimed with the one Cameron is supposed to have sent. Also, delivering a personal letter would have been good manners. Leaving it on his desk is a bit s****y imo.
It’s not really sex education. It’s morality education where the morality taught is decided by the state and not the parents. That’s why they need to do it as young as possible. I doubt five will be the eventual minimum if pre-five state-provided education ever becomes universal.
555 - to be fair, with MT’s dementia and if the story is true, the letter might not have been all that lucid. My Dad used to write batty letters when he’d lost it and then send Mum immediately off to the post office, she’d tear it up and bin them on the way
Still, it got things off his chest.
557 Yes. That’s definitely another possibility.
Malcom, you forgot to mention I was good for the Tories.
Flying onto Yahoo messageboards to savage the Marxist pricks known as Labour & BNP voters. I swallow them up by their heads and spit them out again.
Cameron should give me a job.
556 - why does my parental instinct tell me it would create more problems than it would solve ? Removing opt-outs also makes me angry. Parents should have the last say.
Front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Fridays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-Thursday-November-5-2009/Media-Gallery/200911115440156?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15440156_Fridays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages%2C_Thursday%2C_November_5%2C_2009
A Miliband/Blair EU story
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1225644/Miliband-Brussels-job-days-Blairs-hopes-fade.html
Including this
560. Agree.
The Sun goes on Afghanistan..
“ANOTHER day, another British soldier dies in Afghanistan. This time blown up by a terrorist bomb.
Our troops clearly need all the help they can get. Help to face a powerful and ruthless enemy.
So what has happened to the 500 extra men promised by the Prime Minister THREE WEEKS ago?
Men needed to help defeat the Taliban. To help improve the security of those already there. To help train Afghans to take on the job and allow us to withdraw - the only exit strategy we have.
They have been “kept waiting and hanging around”. Not our words, but those of a former Defence Chief.
This delay has caused Lord Guthrie to blow his top and accuse Mr Brown of laying down conditions that “make it possible for him to avoid taking any decision and to appear to be dithering”.
Time and again, he says, the Government pledges to give the military all the people and equipment they want. “Quite clearly they don’t,” he adds.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
564 - I meant to add the title is “Act now, PM” - they are clearly issuing a challenge. Today he makes his big speech - let’s see what he does.
Is it me, or does anyone else think the Fort Hood shooter looks like Marlon Brando in Apocalypse Now ? Scary, even though he’s smiling ?
Linky for pic ..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8345713.stm
Looks like i’m talking to myself, ah insomnia, I’ll leave you all with an even scarier photo..
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/11/06/article-0-0718D8CA000005DC-116_233×351.jpg
560 Mr. Jones. Without reading the letter, it is impossible to criticise Hague’s decision not to send it. Thatcher is a sick woman - the letter could be highly damaging to her without having the slightest effect on Klaus’ decision and the Conservatives would have been rightly cricised for trying to rely on it.
The Conservatives could even have been accused of writing the letter themselves for Thatcher to sign - a very damaging assertion almost impossible to disprove.Hague and Cameron were right not to send it.
The Conservatives could even have been accused of writing the letter themselves for Thatcher to sign - a very damaging assertion almost impossible to disprove.Hague and Cameron were right not to send it.
Rod Crosby - it’s exactly a month since you made this prediction.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/05/is-this-pay-back-time-for-the-suns-announcement/#comment-1249084
How come the JARHEAD results had Croydon Central as the first to declare at 11:30pm? In 2005 it was not until 7:05am, and in 2001 it was about 2:30am. In 2005 without the recounts it would have been about 2:45am.
578 JL. Government incentives to local authorities to count early !!
One area where AR does seem to be noticeably adrift of other pollsters is in the difference between Tories and LibDem shares. In the last AR this was 20%, but has apparently narrowed to 18%. This is somewhat different from the others:
The difference between Tory and LibDem share of the vote on the most recent poll by orgainsation:
24% on YouGov (previous poll it was 21% - so the direction of tracel is a widening gap)
ComRes 22%
ICM 21%
MORI 24% (MORI England only poll 26%)
I would be curious to know why AR is sufficiently different on this to be worthy of comment. Until explained, their card is marked.