Boosts for UKIP and the BNP in latest PB Angus Reid poll
November 6th, 2009
CON 38%(-2)
LAB 24%(+1)
LD 20%(nc)
UKIP 6% (+1)
BNP 4% (+1)
GRN 3% (nc)
SNP/PC 4% (-1)
And the Tories slip into the 30s?
The most striking characteristics of this afternoon’s exclusive new poll by Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com are the increases in the shares for UKIP and the BNP with the Tories slipping down to 38%.
Like yesterday’s YouGov poll the total proportion of respondents opting for other parties has seen an increase with Angus Reid reporting the largest share of any of the monthly pollsters. What YouGov did not tell us yesterday was the make-up of their “others” total. My guess is they saw a UKIP increase as well.
The fieldwork finished last night after a period when MPs expenses were making the headlines as well as the Tory decision on the Lisbon treaty referendum.
Whether it’s the latter that has driven the UKIP and BNP numbers I don’t know. But one in ten voters according to this poll are saying that they will go with the BNP or UKIP which is the highest proportion by far in any survey since the effects of June’s Euro election worked its way out of the system.
So it looks as though the Tories are taking a hit but Labour are still in very serious trouble up just single point to 24%.
The poll took place online with a sample in excess of 2,000.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first.
first.
primo
Text seams a little on the large size… or is it just me?
Big story, big text.
FPT:- Just wondering, say we do get some small growth by the end of the year. Will even the largest government spin effort have any effect against a backdrop of last major economy out of recession, unemployment still rising, many people on short term working, record insolvencies and rising, huge numbers in mortgage arrears and rising?
13% UKIP+Green+BNP?
Not at a GE
Wow massive - that’s the text of course.
1/2 You’re a double first from PB !!
Mike S. Spell check Mike - “The fieldwork finished last “might”.
Text is normal size on Mozilla.
You let me down badly at Rochdale, JackW after that great result at Gorton.
margin of error?
re Tim. This is about what people are saying now and what we are seeing is the reaction of voters to current events.
I’m crushed by the font size. I know a pb only poll is exicting but this….. Next month it’ll be written in mile high letters on fire.
margin of error stuff me thinks
10 - Pedant mode: it would be a grammar check
7: Agree with tim…13% is way, way too high for a GE. I would say more like 5% (2%, 2%, 1%), which means 6% up for grabs by the main political parties….(probably going 3%/2% to Tory/Labour)
THose figures explain why the JARHEAD senario will never happen. You can’t have TV debates without substantial, probably parity of esteem, coverage for the Lib Dems and “others”. If they get that institutionalised parity of esteem then god knows what might happen in the current mood. I’m still confident that this election will be a binary referendum on what we know today to be 5 more years of Brown. In all but a handful of seats voters will suss very quickly which is the party to beat Labour. But that squeeze effect is predicated on the deeply held cultural belief that only two horses can win each race. If the whole field is blown open by a hydra headed debate then the old duopoly might be trouble.
They are too sensible to let that happen.
fpt, (and very off topic, sorry, but the poll is quite ho-hum)
321. hah, yes, good point. I dislike the interminable and incremental dampness of the British seasons, wet winter to showery spring to disappointing summer to dank old autumn.
Of course, there is nothing as joyous as a fine English spring day, or a blazing June evening in the Hebrides, trouble is you can’t guarantee these things.
As a quondam travel writer I spend a lot of time wondering what sot of place would give me the perfect climate, and I’ve come to the conclusion that such a destination doesn’t exist. You think you’ve found somewhere and then you realise they have awful humidity, or horrible mosquitoes, or a terrible wind in the Spring.
However if pushed I would say the mountains of southern Spain or the sheltered Pyrenean valleys of the Languedoc are close to ideal: short but sharp snowy winters, blossomy spring, long hot summers, mellow sunny autumns.
That’s about as good as it gets, without flying around the world to Bangkok whenever it gets dark in England.
I’m liking the fact that the font colour for the BNP is brown.
13 - I realise that.
Dump Gordon and there’s potential for some fun in this campaign still.
Betting Post
FPT Paddy Power are apparently offering 5/6 that Julie Kirkbride will win an Open Postal Primary.
I’ll offer evens to the first £50 punter (regular) who wants it.
A double first for URW or a first and second?
re 21. You are on Tim.
ps BAXTERED, this gives a Tory majority of 50.
How many polls in the last year have implied a Tory majority of 50-100 seats? Lots and lots, I reckon.
Perhaps the voters are trying to tell us something.
re 20. Well that’s the colour of their shirts isn’t it?
Things looking good for OGH’s tip of 11-15% for Labour’s smallest deficit in November.
When the price was first put up I thought it was the worst EVENS shot in history,
25. Yes.
Which is odd, when you think about it.
[17] - The important thing to my mind is not whether this poll predicts the exactly correct vote shares for the next GE, but how it compares with similar polls at this stage before the last GE.
All the polls recently have been showing greater shares for Others now then they were in late 2004. Consequently we can expect that Others will increase their vote share in GE 2010, compared with GE 2005.
The “two-party squeeze” simply isn’t happening.
MoE
23 - Excellent.
I’ll email Our Goat Herder.
re 10 Jack - you get the November PB “Smart-Arse” award
Disappointing dip in Tory support. Media have been going hammer and tongs on Europe so it is to be expected. Seems comparable with the dip at the height of ExpensesGate. I expect Tory share to go back up to the low 40s once the referendum furore has died down.
Technical Question: ARS is a internet pollster yet its Lib/Lab split is much more in line with the rest of the telephone pollster rather than You Gov. Why is this ? Weightings?
32 - Don’t catch Gordo utter such words, shouldn’t you be busy tw@ttering about crying or something…
re 33. Yes. This poll is past vote weighted unlike YouGov which weights by party ID.
34 (correction) Don’t let Gordo catch you uttering such words, shouldn’t you be busy tw@ttering about crying or something…
32. They are still 14 points ahead of Labour, and cruising to a comfortable majority (albeit not a landslide). Also you have to VIPA these figures.
I reckon if Labour actually polled 24 points at the GE they would lose a lot more sears than Baxter suggests. 24 is still a catastrophically low number for Brown - and we are now only a few months from a General Election.
Others on 17%??
Suggests (if true) a level of disillusionment with the current government which will boost the candidate best placed to beat labour in any given seat?
And why are Dominos Pizza sponsoring the site? Are they under the impression that we just sit at our computers at all hours and don’t have time to cook, can’t drag ourselves away from the screen?
Oh…
31 Mike S. Why thank you …. you know I appreciate most fully an ARSE of profound intellect.
18% for all the others is completely ridiculous, this poll is a pile of crap !
re 30. That’s great Tim. I’ve advised PaddyPower on this market which means I cannot bet on it with them. So it’ll be good to take money off you.
tims law - Hague on TV = Voters Flee
more fun with Nadine : pending court case with the grear Gordon in the witless box?
http://order-order.com/2009/11/06/nadine-v-hm-government/#comments
40. Polls aren’t predictions of elections 6 months hence. They are a snap shot of opinion on the days of the field work. One of the reasons I have been posting less recently is because I’m back door knocking after a long break.
I assure you people hate the lot of us.
31 Mike, dont upset Jack yet. We are still waiting for the Jarrhead result in Torbay. Of course we know Marcus will lose as Jack could never allow a Blue Nose to beat a Yellow Peril but for completeness we need his result
re 40. Wayne - you are following the second PB polling rule - “A rogue poll is one where you don’t like the numbers”.
Out of interest, how do polls like this take into account the fact that the minor parties do not contest all seats? UKIP for example only had 495 seats in 2005, and the BNP a lot lower (117 according to wikipedia).
Lab / Lib -> 24/20, if I was Labour I would be very scared for when the LD get their balance of media coverage (if Clegg manages not to balls up), especially if they jump on the anti-war bandwagon.
Worse for the Tories than I expected. Be interesting to see what others have as their share. Labour also 1pt lower than I thought.
38 - for the value hounds amongst us, may I recommend waiting until Tuesday before placing any
betsorders with Dominos. Their “Two for Tuesday” offer is very popular in the office.19 - yes, Spain has an agreeable climate - and I’d rather it didn’t rain so much here - but there’s nothing like returning to England from Southern Europe on an aeroplane, breaking through the cloud layer above Manchester and marvelling at how GREEN everything is. And we only get that because of the rain.
My favourite weather is British weather in high-pressure conditions, no matter what the season. Probably if I was to go further I’d say my favourite weather is North Yorkshire weather; we hardly get snow on this side of the Pennines. And a little rain is the price I am willing to pay for the greenness of the countryside.
48. Indeed. This was the senario we didn’t touch on in this mornings thread. If the real oppertunity presented its self to push Labour into 3rd place in the popular vote then you could reasonably argue everything i said about Lib Dem positioning was a load of tosh.
38. Suggests (if true) a level of disillusionment with the current government which will boost the candidate best placed to beat labour in any given seat?
That’s how I see it, yes. In Labour seats with a sub-10,000-vote* majority, whoever came second last time will win the seat in 2010.
* or whatever
50
Yes.
I (and possibly Eric Pickles) know this.
44. Polls aren’t predictions of elections 6 months hence.
ICM ones were in 94-97.
34. Actually I’ve been campaigning for sometime now to get Gordon out of office. Why else do you think I called him my hero at Conference and advised him to do that expenses video on YouTube?:-)
re 47. They don’t factor that it because at this stage they don’t known how many seats these parties will contest.
47. UKIP for example only had 495 seats in 2005
They’ve kept that quiet.
51. Have you seen the Navarrese and Languedoc Pyrenees? They are astonishingly green, as green as Ireland.
Annoying but true: they have the sun AND the verdancy, the bastards.
But now we are all part of the same glorious superpower country we don’t have to be envious any more. We can just move to a nicer part of OUR country. A country called Europe.
*hums Beethoven’s 9th while looking for the minibar key*
52. I am really hoping that in the GE, Labour comes third in terms of votes - though not in terms of seats.
Apart from the humiliation it will cause the socialists, it will also lead to howls of anguish across the centre-left and open the field for years of infighting and argument.
54 - Mr Pickles has the benefit of not needing to find a colleague in order to take full advantage of the offer.
51 Didn’t really notice that this morning - given that things were pretty green in Equatorial Guinea too!
51. there’s nothing like returning to England from Southern Europe on an aeroplane, breaking through the cloud layer above Manchester and marvelling at how GREEN everything is.
If you look down and see green over Manchester you’re off course.
I see the PaddyPower price on Julia Kirkbride winning the postal primary has now tightened to 4/6.
Thanks Tim - much appreciate the even bet @ 13.
Does Julie Kirkbride sound the second K in her name?
57: Which would logically overstate ‘Others’ would it not? You can’t physically vote for a party which isn’t standing.
Which is why I don’t belive the BNP will get 4% of the vote when last time they only stood in 117 seats and got 0.7% of the vote in 2005.
Either they would have to stand in all seats (with support being even) or increase vote share by 500% or so in those seats (or a combination of the both).
Highly unlikly.
46.
Mike,
Just like last month AR were way too high when compared with other polling companies, with their share for others. So its not a rogue poll, they were way out on others share last month as well !
I will reserve my judgement on AR until I see 1 more poll and all the respective data before I conclude that they may be as I suspect very inexperienced in the UK and not up to scratch with our main polling companies, sorry it’s not what you want to hear Mike but thats life !
A few thoughts:
1. Knocks over the argument that the man on the Clapham bendybus is indifferent to the EU issue.
2. Apart from The Sun, Cameron had bad or at least muddling press on his EU policy.
3. Swing to UKIP and BNP probably more EU than immigration related. Would guess the public prefers the clearly understood in-out referendum.
4. Now Cameron has a ’settled’ EU policy, there may be traction in upping populist but inconsequential anti-EU rhetoric.
5. Sad to see Labour gain on a day when 6 servicemen lost their lives in Afghanistan, the country moved further against the war and no clear strategy being offered by the government.
6. As Mike S. said upthread the poll represents a snapshot in time rather than a GE prediction, so the likelihood is that others votes will swingback (?) to the main parties as issues other than EU dominate the news.
66. The same is true of the Greens as well. So based on this you can credibly bump up the final vote shares of all the major parties, I suspect.
51, 59.
PS Here, for instance, is the Baztan valley in the Basque Navarre.
http://www.drfphoto.com/image/full/17910.jpg
It doesn’t get much greener. The Languedoc Catalunyan end of the Pyrenees is even nicer, cause they have more sun but its still lavishly verdant.
I think I’ll stick with ICM.
“And the Tories will head south towards 35%….”
There is great disillusionment with the major parties so a 13% share for the Bnp, greens & Ukip is quite feasible. You only have to look at the results of local government elections to see this
Furthermore, how many respondents will tell a pollster they voting for a pariah party? A factor that could hold down the minor parties share would be a lack of a full slate of candidates
O/T meanwhile on PB Channel 2
“Can DSK go from IMF Managing director to French president in 2012?”
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/11/can-dsk-go-from-imf-managing-director.html
I expected Others to bounce back & they have, to much the same levels as 3 months ago. We could see them getting 11 or 12% at the GE but poll figures arent much help in predicting the performance of individual parties, in most seats only 1 or 2 of them will be standing.
Is anyone running a competition to predict the results ? My entry is - con 38 lib/lab 25 each others 12.
Angus Reid need to build up a record. They have one in Canada I know but this is a different market.
As always, it is the trend. All pollsters can have an ‘off’ result but they should be judged on the trend and how it leads to comparison to the final result.
So here we have another internet pollsters with a similar sample size to YouGov but a different result profile. Tories and Labour are both 3% lower than YouGov figures which are in the same timeframe. But AR has the LibDems 3% higher. Yet the Tory lead is exactly the same as YouGov of 5th November.
If the difference in the Tory share is Europe, what is it for Labour? Afghanistan?
Or is it pollster teething troubles?
I suspect this poll is highly accurate. It suggests Cameron’s referendum realism upsets the diehard sceptics and the loss of two points is disappointing. But Labour’s position is an utter disaster. The trend is rightward.
64 - Lets hope she actually gets on to the ballot.
And lets hope Dave campaigns hard for her.
Actually, with a really big press campaign I’ll be happy (politically) to see Julie Kirkbride get lots and lots of headlines and me lose my bet.
59 - No I haven’t, but I HAVE seen the Basque country and I can imagine you’re right. Although the Basque Country was swathed in sea cloud when I saw it.
The Pyrenees also offer more opportunities for skiing and hill walking than we get in Britain. And rugby union, in some parts. So they could well be a winner. And actually, come to think of it, the Alps are rather splendid in the same way.
You’re still not going to convince me that by surrendering to the EU superstate I’m going to start feeling proud of these things or fonder of them than I am of Northern England though.
The others figures probably aren’t a million miles off. If the BNP stand in 117 seats or so again it implies about 0.8% nationally, 4% in the small number of seats would see them getting 20% plus in the seats they stand in wich is not going to happen. Greens will end up at 1.5% or so if they stand in half the seats and UKIP would be nationally at around 4.5% on a similar number of seats to last time (double their vote last time out) - a far reflection of the Lisbon knee-jerk.
Would mean the main parties are ca 40-26-21.5 or thereabouts on a GE result.
Of course, thinking the magical ‘40%’ number for the Tories - in the host of polls where they are at 40-42%, a similar effect of ‘others’ means they are on a GE 42-44%, rather more comfortable.
73: It would require a change of titanic proportions compared with 2005.
2005:
UKIP: 2.2%
Green: 1.0%
BNP:0.7%
To convert that 3.9% combined total into 13% would require an increase of over 200% in voting for each of those parties. Likely?
Angus Reid Crosby probabilistic…
Con 342
Lab 198
LD 62
SNP 18
PC 5
NI 13 (SF abstain)
Oth 7
Con maj 39, 1.4% swingback to Hung Parliament
70 - Gorgeous photo, Sean - looks like an idealised England or Ireland. I think that’s probably the most welcoming photo of continental Europe I’ve ever seen.
Re: avoiding leaching to UKIP/BNP - IMO Cameron could have done two things:
(1) Firm up his intent to negotiate return of other powers; such as ESDP and Justice and Home Affairs - make clear the UK would never give up its UN seat nor be represented by an EU foreign minister.
Emphasise a referendum would be called if the EU ignored the
demands for powers back following a manifesto mandate.
(2) Offer a referendum “shopping list” - asking what powers the British people wished returned, if any:
“The UK government wishes to commence negotiations with the European Union on the repatriation of powers: which of the following powers would you approve the UK government repartriating to the UK? Please tick as many as apply.”
Social
Employment
CFR
JHA
ESDP
ALL OF ABOVE
NONE OF ABOVE
A multi-choice referendum - although complex - would have been very difficult to abuse because it allows so much choice. It could not have been tarnished with a “kick the government” message because it would be putting the voters in charge.
42 tim
Fieldwork probably ended too early for last night’s QT to influence.
Would take Hague over Herbert any day. Not saying that Herbert’s TV skills won’t improve though: they certainly need to.
As Cameron fronted the EU policy announcements your ‘law’ is in conflict with OGH’s. Conflicting legislations are a no-no and I recommend Smithson passes a Sovereignty Act.
84. Um.. yeah. Obviously without the spelling/grammatical errors!
79. Hah. Fair enough. On ilkley moor baht at.
And yes, thanks to the industry and the Atlantic, the Basque country is a bit too grey and Lancastrian.
But I do think the eastern end of the Pyrenees is probably about as good as it gets, French or Spanish side. You’d need a sheltered valley to avoid the tramontane wind. You’d want to be south facing and not too high up so you get the best of the sun and warmth.
You could drive to the Mediterranean in an hour or two, or be skiing or hillwalking in thirty minutes. Also great food and wine, of course. And stunning little towns and villages.
A bientot!
I wonder what impact the number of ‘retiring’ MPs will have on Rod’s figures particularly for Labour? It would be interesting to see how many of the ‘retirees’ were sitting in vulnerable marginal seats?
Others are undoubtedly going to do better in 2010 than 2005, merely as a result of the SNP (and to a lesser extent PC) making marked advances. I suspect the BNP will make a modest advance; but UKIP I really can’t tell because Farage will not be their primary face come the GE. I suspect they have been a home for Labour deserters queasy at the idea of going straight across to the Tories.
And I suspect that when it becomes clear that Brown really is leading Labour into the election - and Labour is therefore a goner - the Guardianista left will move to the Greens (rather than the LibDems). So I expect Labour to trend downwards between now and the election.
And I expect the Tories to make a net gain of 4% (2% swing) over Labour during the campaign itself. That only represents 1 voter in 25 being repulsed by Brown and suspending their uncertainty around Cameron.
84.
Your getting hysterical UKIP and BNP won’t get 10% together in a GE ! Look at some of the other polls for a sanity check !
Actually, just thinking, alternative historical scenario:
What if Lisbon HAD been unratified in June 2010 and Cameron rescinded British ratification called a referendum in July 2010 and won it.
What would the European Union have done then?
They would have gone f**king nuts and a whole shitstorm would have been brought down on the UK.
So, how would Cameron have handled that? Would he relent to a few more opt-outs and THEN put it to another referendum - advise a yes vote - and sign?
Or would he obstinately refuse to have any talk of an EU President and EU Foreign Minister and derail the whole blimmin’ thing?
Interesting. I do wonder.
Good poll for the Tories - Though its a bit disapponting that they have slipped back below 40%. Still, a 14% lead isn’t to be sniffed at.
71.
Wise decision, me too !
87. But what about civilisation? A big f**k-off city with people, and culture, and pollution? Any longer than a week in the countryside and you’ll turn into a hermit.
I know Mike and others will say “silly billy” (or worse) but how does Angus Reid get hold of its sample if it’s an on-line pollster. Do they send random e-mails to people? YouGov has its many thousand strong panel from which to poll. I know I’m missing something obvious here
90. Wayne - how am I getting hysterical? And where did I say UKIP and the BNP would get 10% in a General Election?
I’m simply suggesting how Cameron could have firmed up on his European Policy in a way which would have minimised any leaching of votes to UKIP/BNP at all.
It would have kept a referendum promise AND - crucially - given the people the say in what they wanted the government to do.
I think that would have gone down really well.
Nah sorry..I think think ‘Others’ is overstated by 5% or so from this. Give 3 back to the tories, and 2 back to labour, and you get 41/26/20. Which looks much more reasonable.
I think it’s unlikely that UKIP and the BNP would win a combined 10%, but if they did, I expect their best results would come in the seats that aren’t marginal
JARHEAD - Day Thirty.
Timeline : 4.30 pm Friday 7th may 2010
Location : BBC Election Centre. Shepherds Bush London W10.
Dramatis Personae. Nick Robinson BBC Political Editor.
…………………………………………………
Nick Robinson interupted David Dimblebey sharply :
“David, it’s down to Torbay. I’ve just had confirmed that Labour have held Glasgow North taking their seat total to 264. The Tories now need to gain Torbay from the the Liberal Democrats to match Labour’s score. The importance of this is that Nick Clegg has stated he will first approach the leader who has secured the most seats in the Commons.
And David the news from Torbay is that a fifth recount is about to begin with I understand just a handfull of votes between the two candidates. And remember David that Torbay has a recent history of
very close results as in 1997 the Lib Dem candidate here today squeezed a win by around twelve votes if I recall correctly ….”
The outside broadcast in Torbay constituency panned around the count scene. Both Adrian Sanders and Marcus Wood were huddled with their respective minders and supporters as the tellers began their fifth attempt to determine the MP for Fawlty Towers on Sea. Basil couldn’t make up the events that had drawn the fate of Britains political world to Torquay on a late spring afternnon.
“Basil !!!!!!!!!” …… “Coming my little puff adder ….”
90 That latest Yougov gave them 8% in total.
The EC is of interest to a few % of voters. This poll indicates that Cameron has lost 2%. Not a surprise. The question is whether or not he is going to lose the other 1% to 2% hardline BOO eurosceptics that I think are still left in the 38%.
Being reasonable about the EC has not attracted any net gain in support to the Conservatives.
The combination of a 2 point drop for the Tories and an increase for UKIP and BNP looks like a consequence of Lisbon, but it will be temporary. Come the election campaign it will be a distant memory.
I wonder what would have happened if Klaus had ratified the week before the GE…?
98 - Yes, UKIP/Tory waverers are more likely to vote Tory in seats where doing so would unsat a Labour or Lib Dem MP; more likely to vote UKIP where the incumbent is seen as safe (e.g. Buckingham). A small swing from Tory to UKIP need not be a major cause for Tory alarm.
85 - More Hague on the telly please.
As for Smithsons law, if Mike were to body double for Hague and Grayling, their voter appeal would rise.
96.
Its only if you believe these ridiculously high figures for BNP and UKIP that you can come to your conclusion that the tories are leaching votes to these two parties. I don’t beleieve these figures and if people on here are really honest I don’t think they do either ! Your choice of course
19, 51 - Yes, as a Yorkshireman I love North Yorkshire. Went back for a few years, living south of Harrogate, where it hardly snows. North and west of Harrogate, out Hampsthwaite way, it snowed much more. There’s nothing like the Dales on a nice warm summer day.
I love southern Spain too - but only as a tourist, even for extended periods, but I couldn’t live there. Couldn’t live permanently in the UK either - been away too long and it’s unbelievably expensive (compared to the USA).
SeanT - you’re right, there are no ideal climates. Moving down to the south east from upstate NY (where it’s colder than hell and snows a LOT!) because I love the heat, I had to decide whether I wanted to live on the SC/GA/FL coast - hot but hurricanes, or the Atlanta area (not quite as hot but no hurricanes).
It’s a tough life
Casino Royale you may be right about emphasis but I don’t think a politician expecting to be in government soon could go much further that this indirect threat to his European colleagues:
Clearly we will be asked the question: what if you cannot get these guarantees and what if Europe continues to head in the wrong, centralising direction? Let me answer that question in advance.
Well, if that were to happen, then of course we can return to this subject in a manifesto for the parliament after the next one.
Let me be clear: this is not something we want to happen. Nor is it something we expect to happen.
But if those circumstances were to occur, we would not rule out a referendum on a wider package of guarantees to protect our democratic decision-making, while remaining, of course, a member of the European Union.
He certainly would not openly threaten to leave at this stage, or block budgets or accessions or the working of the European Council, because to do so would be playground stuff and be counter productive as we have seen from that amiable and soft voiced Frenchman.
99 Jack W
To inject a little realism into the fun how about the shocking result that the BNP have gained a seat in the UK Parliament!
45 Easterross. Not so quick my wee Tory mucker.
JARHEAD Con gains from LibDem - Hereford & H North, Meon Valley and York Outer and a number of recount near misses.
As for Torbay …. I couldn’t possibly announce the result before the returning officer - Most improper !!
97.
5 or 6 % overstatement i’d say ! yes
Interesting poll. Does conflict a bit with the survey on PoliticsHome. Angus Reid do have a good heritage but I would like to see more polls showing a similar shift before declaring a trend. What we are entering is a phase where the number of known knowns is declining. We have one PBR, one GDP figures and one or two more unemployment figures before the next election to come. That would suggest that the polls will firm up in the quarter.
107. Henry VIII tried to work within the system initially of course, and the continental powers never beleived he would actually press the nuclear button to get his way.
But he did, and in doing so laid the foundations for Britain’s greatness…
97. Yes, good points. Nowhere is perfect, not even the Valley of Baztan
http://www.turismo.navarra.es/eng/organice-viaje/recurso.aspx?o=3066
(a valley which features, incidentally, in the next Tom Knox: Marks of Cain. Out next April. Only £3.99)
Talking of which, I have to be up early tomorrow researching sunny Chinese locations for Tom Knox Three.
So it’s a warm Xie Xie and Wan An from me.
A bientot! SeanT you spit out French more and more. Are you becoming incapable of writing in English as well as becoming the Europhile on this site?
Will the next Tom Knox be in the original French as you give up on English to become a true European?
109. Meon valley isn’t a Lib Dem seat so how can it be a Con gain?
98. But UKIP could cost the Conservatives a few marginal seats.
If you make the assumption that most UKIP votes are ex-Conservative votes there were several seats that should have gone Conservative in 2005 but didn’t.
101. “The EU”, as a government construct, isn’t of interest to most people - hell, even I am not that *interested* - what is of interest is the power of influence that the EU has over policies that people ARE interested in; such as: criminal justice, immigration, employment policy etc.
That is the primary issue.
For some reason the British government seems to be held accountable for *all* areas of policy when, in fact, on some it has no real power of influence at all.
I wonder how many people actually realise this?
YES! my bet with tim looks like paying dividends.
And at a rough calculation 500 seats at an average of 6% will bring an excess of 1,600,000 votes. PtP and Mike.
107. “We would not rule out..”, “Parliament after next…”, “if.. if.. if..”
I think Cameron could have been much firmer with his wording.
O/T, finally your BBC licence fee being put to good use. Go to approx 2:10 on the clip.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1178845_video_shows_bbc_reporter_fighting_off_drunken_attackers
106 - Britain expensive? Sadly these days, if you’re British your currency is now worth diddly-squat and it’s the rest of the developed world which is expensive.
Mike - Do you still have the rule of the highest result for the Tories and lowest result for Labour is true IIRC. If I don’t remember it correctly, then my apologies…
116. But, I concure with Casino Royale, and at least a third of that 6% will return to the Tory fold come the GE.
IT will be interesting to see how the votes divide and in what constituences.
One area where AR does seem to be noticeably adrift of other pollsters is in the difference between Tories and LibDem shares. In the last AR this was 20%, but has apparently narrowed to 18%. This is somewhat different from the others:
The difference between Tory and LibDem share of the vote on the most recent poll by orgainsation -
24% on YouGov (previous poll it was 21% - so the direction of tracel is a widening gap)
ComRes 22%
ICM 21%
MORI 24% (MORI England only poll 26%)
I would be curious to know why AR is noticeablyly different on this. Until explained, their card is marked.
115 ruunymede. Apols. It was a recount Con win.
SthLondon Nick November 6th, 2009 at 4:34 pm (this ARS poll) “Does conflict a bit with the survey on PoliticsHome.”
I suggest not. 22% of Conservative supporters do not like the line Cameron has taken. 1/5 of 41% is 8%. Therefore to lose 2% should not be a surprise.
72 Rod you may be correct in 2 years time but PM Cameron wont worry about it too much then.
123. Lib Dem vote does seem remarkably high for a party that doesn’t say/do very much, has no unique policy positions (as in 2005) and with the prospect of a “change of government” general election in 6 months which is a two-horse race.
127 I’m almost tempted to refer to Mike’s new pollsters as jARrhead…
124. It’s Hereford & Herefordshire South (not North) as well….
A lot of focus on the Conservatives 38%, but what about Labour? 24% exactly six months to the day before we go to the polling booths is an utterly atrocious figure.
I doubt a goveerning party has ever been this low, this close to an election? Gordon Brown truely is breaking records!
The classic configuaration a la Shadsy is 41.5-26.5-19.5.
Any poll that deviates is a rogue !
123.
I think AR / Mike will be having a bit of explaining to do if they continue to be so far adrift from other polling companies …. Don’t want to get a name like Comedy Res have do they !
124. What is this? Some mathematical fantasy you are playing out with Excel?
In the Norwich North Byelection last July UKIP very clearly took much of its support from Labour rather than the the Tories.I could see this very clearly at the count - and scrutineers from both Labour and UKIP confirmed this impression.This is not to imply that nationally most UKIP voters are not former Tories , butit makes me believe the pattern will vary quite a bit from seat to seat.
123 - IIRC Angus Reid are asking a slightly different question, asking how people will vote in their constituency. This might explain the higher LD share.
I’m still finding it very hard to read LD performance at the next election, all polls/models notwithstanding, and wouldn’t rule out a shock in either direction e.g. as low as c. 30 seats or as high as 80.
128.
ARS ! …. maybe better for them
109 - I thought JARHEAD had gifted Romsey and a couple of others to the Tories from LD too?
Casino Royale the evidence from Norfolk was, if I recall, that much of the UKIP increased vote in the by election came from Labour.
Certainly the old time middle class Labour voter might feel comfortable in the nationalistic anti-immigration UKIP house as much as a nationalistic anti-immigration old style Tory. Both protesting the world has changed without them being able to say ‘no’. Both would run a mile from the BNP.
It would be interesting to get an age profile of actual UKIP voters.
But I am fairly sure that with many of potential Tories with the hump it will be true that an opinion poll answer is is one thing, a cross on the ballot another. Vote UKIP for five more Brown-and-out-years.
The white collar Labour supporter fed up with immigration and/or feeling the loss of old time state control policies might feel justified in voting BNP. LibDems may well be tempted to the Greens these days.
It may be, when all the pushing comes to shove, that the smaller parties start to cancel the effect of one another out in many constituencies and having a real effect in only a very few.
But never discount the current Tory marginals operation. The Europe policy will be sold hard but quietly right up to election day wherever there is a suitable audience.
135 I am sure that I was recently asked how I would vote *in my constituency* in a YouGov survey! Has this new lot outsourced its data-gathering to someone who already has the appropriate systems in place? It would make sense for them to do so.
104 ‘85 - More Hague on the telly please.’
TIMBOT, in the turning away the voters in droves contest there’s only one winner.
‘Gordon Brown, come on down!’
138. That sounds like a textbook CCHQ answer Witan!
On topic: People seem to be building rather elaborate political theories on the basis of this poll, but surely this could be no change from the inaugural AR poll, within margin of error?
I’d suggest waiting for confirmation from other polls before concluding anything very significant.
As to the absolute levels of Others, it is unclear to me why AR has them so much higher than other pollsters. It could be that they are right and everyone else is wrong, but that seems a touch unlikely.
22% of Conservative supporters do not like the line Cameron has taken. 1/5 of 41% is 8%. Therefore to lose 2% should not be a surprise.
by TC November 6th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Surely your calculation is only valid if 100% of those polled supported the European policy of the party prior to this week?
142. Building elaborate political theories is fun.
Of course, you could be absolutely right: maybe it is something to do with the voting intention question?
Right: off for the weekend. Have fun team.
That sounds like a textbook CCHQ answer Witan!
by Casino Royale November 6th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
No, all my own work on that one.
,
O/T - Boy is Latvia in a bad way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=auRvTno15W7k
O/T but I think that Julie Kirkbride is most unwise to wish to run again in her seat.
‘People seem to be building rather elaborate political theories on the basis of this poll’
Not perhaps the first time we have seen that phenomenon on this site…
148 Sean F - Yes, I agree. I think tim is likely to win his bet with Mike.
138. I think you’re right about the smaller parties cancelling each other out.
Tory voters might drift to UKIP, unless it’s a marginal.
Labour voters might drift to BNP, unless it’s a marginal.
Lib Dem voters might drift to the Greens, unless it’s a marginal.
135. I think the “in your constituency” question boosts the smaller parties’ score too. Most seats are safe, one way or another, so voters can afford to express an “idealogical” vote without affecting the result.
147. A whole economy sacrificed to appease the idol of European integration. A rerun of the pagan festivals that used to occur at this time of year…
Meanwhile in Glasgow North East the Guardian reports labour are clear favourites to win:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/06/gordon-brown-glasgow-north-east-byelection
Witan November 6th, 2009 at 4:52 pm “But never discount the current Tory marginals operation. The Europe policy will be sold hard but quietly right up to election day wherever there is a suitable audience.”
Could be sold less hard if 1 in 10 of the activists sit on their hands because of the Ec decision.
151 NoOffenceAlan - A possible explanation is the rather odd wording of the AR poll (unless they’ve changed it). Rather than asking ‘Who [or indeed whom] would you vote for in your constituency?’, they ask ‘Who would you support in your constituency?’. That strikes me as potentially slightly confusing.
I don’t know if you’ve all seen the latest Guido:
http://order-order.com/2009/11/06/nadine-v-hm-government/
But if it is true that TSOL are bickering with Nadine’s reps over witness lists, then a court case is surely inevitable. Labour don’t need that in the run up to an election. Perhaps HMG’s reps, TSOL, are playing for time.
143 Witan, what i am trying to convey is that whilst the bulk of Conservatives (78%) are ok about the EC policy of Cameron, 22% are not. So part of that 22% can be expected to go elsewhere. If it is only 1 in 4 of the 22% that is still 5% of the potential Conservative voters that could have been counted on.
If we see 38%, 37% or 39% from other pollsters, Cameron will start getting very nervous. We are also still to see a major push by Labour on the nasty pills that Osborne spoke about at Conference.
156 anyone know why it is the Treasury lawyers involved rather than the Cabinet Office?
OT Of FFS - no trains from First Capital Connect on Remembrance Sunday
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/6516078/Train-company-cancels-nearly-all-services-because-of-driver-shortage.html
O/T This doesn’t look good -
‘Two soldiers are missing in western Afghanistan after failing to return from a routine resupply mission two days ago, Nato officials have said’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8346915.stm
Regarding Kirkbride she is inviting more tonnes of nasty stuff to be tipped on her reputation through the media. The level of naivety of the woman beggars belief.
Mr Farage isn’t impressed
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/farage-goes-ballistic-over-commons-ban.html
“Nigel Farage has thrown his toys out of his pram, and accused the House of Commons authorities of being “fascistic”, after the Commons decided to withdraw Commons passes from serving MEPs.”
158
Although it is called the ‘Treasury’ solicitor, they are not actually part of HM Treasury. They represent the various ministries on all sorts of cases, eg, this recent one:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/reports/article6872919.ece
Good news on Monday for backers of Rompuy Pompuy?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6516040/Herman-Van-Rompuy-could-clinch-EU-presidency-on-Monday.html
156 - The way Dorries side is playing this, makes you wonder who is now pulling the strings, doesn’t it?
re 148 & 150 Kirkbride is a near certainty in an all-postal primary provided that the final short-list is four or more.
She has the name recognition and there’ll be stories about her bravery in facing the whole electorate like this. Also it’s going to require a clear anti-Kirkbride candidate to emerge and given the limitation on campaign spending that could be quite hard.
The bettin price has been tightening. Get your money on.
Talking of Mad Nad,
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/nadine-spills-the-beans-on-letchy-labour-mps.html
165 Doesn’t the HOC pay for her legal fees? I feel Guido and his conspirators are a guiding hand…
This won’t do Johnson any good:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6906413.ece
116.”98. But UKIP could cost the Conservatives a few marginal seats.”
How about looking at it another way, UKIP this time around could cost Labour or the Libdems a few marginal seats. Now wouldn’t that be ironic?
More bad news on the economy (and much private anguish) personal insolvencies at highest rate since records began with a 28% increase (35,000).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8346170.stm
AQ panel:
The panellists are Vince Cable, treasury spokesman and deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, former Europe minister Caroline Flint, shadow culture secretary Jeremy Hunt, and author and documentary maker Carol Gould.
Meh. Mystic Vince, Kirsty Kirsty Kirsty and tim’s latest Tory crush. It’d be hard pressed to be worse than QT though. Stopped watching halfway through. You know an audience is loaded when Hain doesn’t get roasted, nor Ian Blair.
Was Gordo out and about taking questions from school kiddies again today?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1225740/Daughter-Garry-Newlove-emotional-confrontation-Gordon-Brown-sentences-murderers.html
172 QT was crappy yesterday - worst its been in ages I thought - and Ian Blair pretending that he isn’t a Labour man, pfft.
161 What’s odd is her apparent belief that she has been treated unjustly.
The expenses scandal could mean 2 million votes for UKIP at the general election and 1 million apiece for the BNP and the Greens. (With a 66% turnout those numbers would equate to about 6% for UKIP and 3.5% for BNP and Green).
174 - I’m not Labour but…I did ride around in my plod car with Labour stickers all over it….
176, doubt it, personally. That would see the BNP retain their euro level of support, and in a non-PR election I don’t think it’ll happen.
The UAF and Hain wetting themselves over an elected politician appearing on television won’t help though.
177 He claimed on Mayo that no one knew his politics - HAHAHAHAH.
Ex-defence chiefs round on Brown
Three ex-chiefs of the defence staff have launched a scathing attack on Gordon Brown’s commitment to the war in Afghanistan and support for UK troops.
Lord Boyce said the government “did not realise we are at war” while Lord Inge said the armed forces never really believed Mr Brown was “on their side”.
Lord Guthrie, meanwhile, accused Mr Brown of “dithering” over his pledge to send 500 more troops to Afghanistan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8346970.stm
Brown’s refusal to give up the job in June after polling 15.7% is turning these last few months into a long, slow horror show. Just how low will Labour’s poll rating go? 24% today, 19% before long?
Completely off topic but will Gordon Brown and other politicos have to be CRB checked if they go into schools during the next six months?
181, 19% was fun. I don’t think it’ll go that low again though. Low 20s will be Labour’s pre-election floor, methinks.
177, worse than that, he appeared on the Andrew Marr Show before the 2005 GE to back Labour party policy.
182
Hahahaha good point… And what about the press corps following them…?
182 - Presumably politicians going into schools do not have unsupervised access to children so no.
185 (and others) But when does the new register come in to force that all the authors were complaining about?
183. And I lost count of the number of times Ken Livingstone showed up on Toady to protect the job of his mate Ian. What a chutzpah to accuse Boris of being politically motivated when Blair only hung on to his post because of political patronage from Labour. Sacking him was long overdue.
The ancient idea of war was to identify and kill as many of the enemy as you could whilst avoiding casualties on your own side and then parading the heads of your enemies on spikes.
Things are different today. The idea seems to be to kill as few of your enemies as possible and to parade the heads of your own dead.
War as conducted these days would appear to be an extension of the social services.A Lady in the HoL put it better.
“We shouldn’t be trying to make Afghanistan look like Berkshire, it won’t work.”
I don’t google but I do listen to BBC Parliament.
186 (cont) Just to be specific, I meant the Vetting and Barring Scheme, which started in October for those that work with children. As I understood it, it was then been expanded to cover a whole range of things including adults on school visits (even fully supervised), but I don’t know by when. Anybody?
been -> being
187, aye. ’twas a great moment when Boris slew the grubby creature of New Labour.
187 And not to forget:
- I can’t understand why the Soham murders got so much attention
- Prosecute Kate Moss as I’ve seen a story in the NOTW
- Notting Hill dinner parties should be raided
- My officers didn’t tell me they’d shot the wrong man until the next day…
Chump.
When I said 19% I meant in the polls, not the actual GE result.
I thought the Tories would drop a bit in any poll measuring turnout - the unease among some of the core vote is pretty obvious. UKIP and the BNP are high there since turnout filters usually depress their score (not least as some won’t have a candidate) - it’d be interesting to see the figures without turnout weighting, Mike? - but I’d think the circumstances were pretty optimal for them and their GE score will be lower.
By the way, someone is emailing me fairly regularly with fake email addresses (usually spoofed as the Economist) talking about Martin Day and other things. If you’re reading this, whoever you are, please give a proper email address and name, or desist, as I’ve not following the links, just deleting them unread.
192, you missed off vital detail from the first incident. Didn’t he assert it was racist, and nobody paid attention to black murder victims?
Hmmmm, from 14th October 2009,
Children’s secretary Ed Balls has called for Roger Singleton, the chairman of the Independent Safeguarding Authority, to review the requirements of the vetting and barring system. The review will be concluded in December.
http://www.nurseryworld.co.uk/news/945262/Exclusive-Nanny-exemption-Vetting-Barring-scheme-dangerous/
172 - Quite agree re QT. Kilroy raving, did n’t like Blair at all.
191.
Outside the strange mindset of the BBC/NuLab was anyone really sorry to see the back of that incompetent at the Met?
193 They scored a whole 8.25% of the vote in the South East.
194 He did indeed. Double chump.
Hmm, looks like my link has got into the spam trap. Needless to say, Eddie Balls has called for a review into requirements for vetting and barring system to report in December. So we don’t know yet if Gordo and others will need to cough up the £64 to be on the list (I hope they don’t put it on expenses if they end up having to!).
189 - It’s already in effect but you would need to interpret it pretty broadly (which of course some plonkers just might) to get it to cover a one-off supervised visit to a school by a politician (or any other guest speaker).
195 I was a bit lost as to why Kilroy was there at all. They had a Tory, a Labour, Ian Blair, and him - why not a LD?
199, maybe they’re having a rethink if Brown keeps having to pay for it. He’s not got much money, you know.
They are killing eachother over there. The Messiah will take a hit with this extra turmoil.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8347663.stm
200 - I was under the impression though that it is in effect, and those working have to be signed up. However, parents for instance that are involved in school stuff originally had 12 months (from Oct) before they have to be signed up to it. Similar for other examples of adults with some access to kids. From the link, that got caught, seems Eddie has called a review for these other areas.
202 Having no bills to pay and trousering almost £200k a yr is tough you know.
I don’t know how he manages.
201, they needed a UKIPesque character to goad the Tories on the EU. The audience seemed to utterly ignore the fact that Labour betrayed them but incensed that the Tories have to change their position due to the facts changing.
200 but Gordon is a regular visitor to schools and as the election nears it will approach once (or more) a day on present trends.
206 who was the Tory with the big tie? Didn’t like him much.
198 Ian Blair = complete and utter chump
If he had given evidence in court under oath that he didn’t know the wrong man had been shot until the next day, he would have been laughed out of court. Not credible. Boris did justice in this country a huge service. The top cop had to go because there was no belief that he and the truth were on speaking terms.
How very New Labour.
201. Kilroy Silk, until recently a BBC pariah, seemed to have been let out for the sole purpose of ramping up populist outrage at Cameron’s policy on Europe. BBC = chumps.
http://newsnetscotland.blogspot.com/
“Figures released by Glasgow Council reveal the total number of postal vote applications granted for the by-election has reached 6,065 - an increase of 3646 on the 2005 figure of 2419.
It has also emerged that in the month of October alone the voters roll in Glasgow North East increased by an astonishing 2438 people, rising from 60037 at the start of the month to 62475 by the 31st.”
OT was meant to be at a firework display in Eastbourne this evening but it’s hideous outside - bugger, last night was crisp and clear - typical.
166 - I’d be amazed if Kirkbride gets past all the hurdles to get on to the ballot paper, so I’d bet our bet will never be settled.
If it does get that far she’ll be so damaged by the repetition of all the expenses claims she made that any local GP will beat her.
If Cameron did do some sort of deal to protect her while sacrificing her husband then the last thing he wants is that splashed all over the place so I’d expect her to quietly slip away and pop up on some QUANGO in 18 months time.
208, the Tory on was Nick Herbert. Seems alright, from what I’ve seen.
104: ‘More Hague on the telly please. As for Smithsons law, if Mike were to body double for Hague and Grayling, their voter appeal would rise.’
I see the campaign against William Hague continues unabated. I’ve noticed a curious but profound distinction between leftist and rightists. We on the right tend to hold in contempt politicians who are patently useless at the job we pay them to do: Prescott, Ainsworth, Brown etc; the left, on the other, hand reserve their loathing for politicians who cause problems for them: Ozzy with his exposing of Labour’s economic ineptitude, Hague with his shooting of Labour’s European fox and so forth. Odd really.
Plato, I’m sure the LibDems won’t complain about their absence from last night’s QT - they’ll be more than happy to hide from any public exposure on their record on the Lisbon Constitution.
215 Labour are in the bunker and convincing themselves that their opponents are what they want them to be.
Very silly. Lying to yourself rarely works.
JARHEAD Day Thirty
Timeline : Friday 7th May 2010. 5.57pm
Location : The Torbay Constituency Count, Torquay, Devon.
Dramatis Personae : The Deputy Returning Officer.
………………………………………….
The candidates were called forward by the Mr James Falconer, the Deputy Returning Officer, and advised of the result. Without exception they were all taken aback and a mixture of nervous laughter and anxiety spread over two of the candidates. All walked onto the stage amid a hushed silence from the interested parties on the floor below. The returning officer looked toward the assembled media and nodded. He then tapped the microphone :
“I James Falconer being the Deputy Returning Officer for the Torbay constituency do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate is as follows :
Pendrick-Friend, David, Labour - 5,456
Roberts, Peter James, UKIP - 3,250
Sanders, Adrian, Liberal Democrat - 20,167
Large sections of the crowd cheered …. “Quiet please” intoned the returning officer. The crowd settled eventually.
Wood, Marcus, Conservative - 20,167
Uproar enveloped the hall as officials, supporters and the media fully realized the nature of what had happened - A Tie !!!!!
James Falconer attempted to restore some form of order and eventually after a minute or so a level of excited calm descended on the proceedings.
“As a tie has resulted from the last three recounts and by the power invested in me this constituency result shall be decided by the chosing of lots. One lot will have “Elected” written on it and the second lot shall be blank.” The lots will be placed in a ballot box and be removed in turn. Mr Wood has agreed that as sitting member Mr Sanders shall have the choice of first or second lot choice. In turn Mr Sanders has opted to allow Mr Wood to take the first turn.”
James Falconer showed the candidates the lots and folded both twice and placed them in an empty ballot box. He then invited Marcus Wood to step forward and make his choice. Marcus closed his eyes, his heart pumping like a motor piston on drugs, and removed one lot. He held it up and opened the piece of paper …..
Utter chaos overtook the hall. Mr Marcus Wood was going to the House of Commons !!!!!
216, plus it meant they had no pressure to put up Ed Davey, who, lest we forget, is in no way immoral but is something of a simpleton.
215 - Hague is useless at the job we pay him to do.
He’s quite good at the job the Dinner organisers pay him to do.
219 I keep confusing him with Phil Collins
re 213. Your troughing leader, Mr. Brown, had to repay more than £12k. How much is Kirkbride going to give back? My guess is nothing like that sum.
She’ll get on the ballot, take her chance and will be rewarded for her bravery.
The PaddyPower price is now 4/6 and the bet is void if “Julie Kirkbride not be on the primary ballot or the Primary not take place before the Next General Election.”
Seems good to me. Again you are letting your hatred of Tories affect your betting. Really stupid.
I bet for and against all parties.
218 You just know the LibDems would find a reason to go to court…
Fun - but fantasy. Dead Millionaires Tax will play very well in Torbay.
& to 222. I’ve just invested a lot of money today betting on Labour in Glasgow NE.
If the Tories stay on 38% it’s game on. When it comes to an election campaign, the LDs are going to get squeezed horribly. Clegg as PM? Do me a favour.
140.”104 ‘85 - More Hague on the telly please.’”
Sadly a senior Shadow Cabinet role has meant the end of Hague appearing on H1GNFY, always a popular addition to the show. What a contrast with Milliband.
180.Brown’s problem now when discussing Afghanistan and the military is his record as Chancellor and PM, it tells the true story of his commitment. He initially appointed a part time Defence Minister when he moved into No10, and I suspect that he has spent more time organising weekly meetings to plan fighting the Tories rather than the Taliban in the last two years. Says it all really.
re 220. I’m not a Hague fan but what job do you “pay him to do”? You used the term “we”
What a stupid thing to say.
218. ROTFLMAO!
Gerry Malone’s revenge?!
225 Game on? On the ticket of “Gordon Brown - Five More Years!”?
Pfft!
Mike, I kept losing my comment into the ether, now they are appearing in stuck in the sinbin. Could you just let one of them through, ta.
206 Morris Dancer
The Tories got a worse press for their European Policy announcement than they deserved. This may have been resulted from Coulson putting too much emphasis on squaring the circle with The Sun. There is a natural bias in favour of the Tories - or at least against Brown & Labour - so there will be issues on which the media will want to reverse their default allegiances, if only to cling onto a semblance of impartiality.
QT fell foul of this last night. Badly chaired and balanced, it allowed two seasoned TV performers with no consituencies to parade their skills unchallenged. Herbert’s rookie performance didn’t help but he was not to blame for the overall debate lacking bite or purpose. I can just understand having Blair on but not if he isn’t challenged on the mistakes he made as Met Commissioner.
From the tone of the comments on here, seems it isn’t worth an hour of my time catching up on last night’s QT. Fair?
225, a 14 point lead = game on?
38 is lower than typical of late. What slogan does Labour have to match “Gordon Brown - Five More Years”?
Incredible that Labour and LibDems could ditch their election manifesto commitments on Lisbon with virtually no outcry at all, but Cameron gets denounced for a U Turn when the thing gets ratified. What twisted logic is that?
re 232 ChrisA has been having a similar problem.
Can you use a different email address and do a test post?
226 - The retrospective paying back of cleaning gardening etc is unfair in my book, and this applies to MPs of all parties.
As I’ve said before Bernard Jenkin seems to be the most unfairly treated by changing the rules in retrospect.
The claims of Mackay and Kirkbride, and the Keens are of an entirely different magnitude so I don’t think I’m exhibiting any particular bias.
Not only do Cameron’s “cast-iron” guarantees prove to be worthless, he also tells BIG PORKIE-PIES about we not being able to remove ourselves from EU Commission control:
From the British National Archives:
Legal advice to H Wilson then;
THE LORD PRESIDENT OF THE COUNCIL, invited to reply to the
discussion, said it was clear that Parliament could not divest itself
ultimately of its sovereignty and was in a position to bring the United
Kingdom out of the Community at any time by repealing the European
Communities Act 1972.
National Archive Catalogue Reference:CAB/128/56/14
UKIP is the only party that offers a referendum on the complete unelected EU Commission question.
Using the above archived instrument, we can, at a stroke, remove ourselves from the auspices and control of the UNELECTED and fraudulent EU Commission.
We could remain British!
Vote UKIP
a non racist, non sectarian, libertarian center-ground Party
“If the Tories stay on 38% it’s game on. ”
Not if Labour are on 24%.
“When it comes to an election campaign, the LDs are going to get squeezed horribly. ”
I doubt it, but if they do, then the Conservatives will go back to 40%+.
231 SOL I hope Coulson has lanced the EU boil early and that the Tories will now build a ‘not us it’s them’ narrative.
Blair has a book to flog - I’m waiting for Andy Hayman’s intv/book on Mayo.
Funnily enough Blair believes that Hayman briefed against him to the press…Hayman is the only person Blair knew who used the word ‘chump’ and it turned up in an anti-Blair anonoquote
Vote UKIP
for deranged frothing criminal duffers.
222 - It isn’t the scale of the money involved in the expenses scandal, Mike. Brown was too extravagant but on mundane items (cleaning notably). What Kirkbride and McKay did was egregious abuse - they knew perfectly well that having two second homes and no first home was gaming the system to say the least, and the cash blown on glamour shots for her website made her appear ridiculous as well as abusive.
There is a real and serious danger for the Tories if she stands at a General Election that there could be a high-profile Mr Clean run and a threat to their broader message. They should stamp on it now - she is hardly an important talent to keep within the Parliamentary Party.
That said, I think you’re right that 4-6 looks generous if it is her against three or four nobodies on the open primary. And the PP terms cover you for the situation where she isn’t on the ballot at all.
test
239 Thank you for the PPB - I bet it’s really changed our minds
224 You may well be right about that, but it would certainly be more than she deserved.
To be honest, apart from the most outrageous offenders, like Elliot Morley, and Margaret Moran, I’m getting rather lost about who did what, and whether it was reasonable or not.
242
U Know It’s Pants.
I’d love to see the figures for England - Labour in third place?
One politically incorrect question to ask would be: how is Labour support running amongst white, English voters? Around 19-20% maybe?
243 I struggle to remember what MP did what except for the Mackay/Kirkbrides - it was quite shameless manipulation of the system - and Mackay claiming that he couldn’t publish his Bracknell address for security reasons.
Pah, the reason he wouldn’t was because he didn’t have one despite being the MP for 25yrs. He could have just been honest but no…
246
Speaking of which, we’re still waiting for the prosecutions.
242 Vote UKIP and get a free blow-up Roger Knapman with authentic swivel-eyes.
You get a free CD of Nigel Farage’s Folksy Pipe Tribute to Britannia just for visiting the website.
Angus Reid panel is here
https://www.springboarduk.com/Portal/default.aspx
250 Due around Jan/Feb I suspect. That’ll be fun to brighten the long cold winter nights
227/218. That last happened at Ashton-under-Lyne in 1886. In them days (prior to the change in the law in 1984) a tie was resolved on the casting vote of the returning officer, who by tradition, voted for the incumbent (if there was one.) In this case, there was, and the sitting Tory member, John Edmund Wentworth Addison, was declared elected by one vote.
At the Exeter election court in 1911, a petition from the Tories was heard before two judges. It took all week to determine the winner, after several votes were disallowed for treating, underage, etc. The position from the point of view of the ultimately successful Tory candidate, Henry Duke, was as follows…
Count
-4,-4 (recount)
Judges scrutiny
0,-2,0,1,-1,4,2,0,1
249 - McKay claimed second home allowance on the London flat and Kirkbride on the Bromsgrove home. There was no first home and McKay was toast for the lie on that.
But ultimately this is what does for Kirkbride:
http://splinteredsunrise.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/article-1189013-051a5ad4000005dc-201_468×618.jpg
It makes life far, far too easy for her opponents if it comes to the General Election. It is a very visual representation of greed, vanity and idiocy. It may even be a shade unfair - but it is a bit of a killer.
My local MP was described as a “saint” by the Telegraph.
Who the hell wants to be represented by someone who hasn’t the wherewithal to maximise their returns?
Did anyone see this?
Watch our piece on the Glasgow North East by election on BBC News tonight at 6pm
about 1 hour ago from txt
twitter from Laura Kuennsberg
243 “What Kirkbride and McKay did was egregious abuse - they knew perfectly well that having two second homes and no first home was gaming the system”
Sir NP - spot on. It may seem harsh that they go from a 2 MP family to a no MP family, but that was the risk. Kirkbride should not be allowed to stand. For heaven’s sake, if a local party can get all het up about an affair years ago….
This is interesting:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jly69mknPB8
256 - I suspect you’re being flippant, Mike, but who wants an MP who lacks the intelligence to realise that it might look bad if people found out they were “maximising their returns” and that a cautious and modest approach to claiming is the low risk option?
re 187 sacking the odious Blair was nowhere near enough he should have been up before a judge answering for his failings and his force’s over the de Menezes affair. If there was any justice he’d now be banged up for a long stretch.
256 Mine claimed £90 pcm on window cleaning - and always managed the full £23083 or similar. I have a very low opinion of him TBH.
If an MP was a businessman - I’d be impressed that they were on to every opportunity - but not my MP.
re 220 Jack W your secret’s out. That’s a plot line from First Among Equals. You are Lord Archer of Weston-super-Mare and I claim my five pounds.
OT Some great animal pix as ever
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthpicturegalleries/6515943/Animal-pictures-of-the-week-6-November-2009.html?image=6
re 237 Mike it seems to be working fine again at the moment with my usual email address.
Seeing Cameron’s numbers going down after lots of exposure doesn’t surprise me at all. Recently he and his sidekick Hague have looked less than appealing and it seems voters are noticing. I hope Mike takes note and stops pandering to his clientele by asserting that Cam on air= points on polls.
Just up on Yahoo News: “Lax standards of school discipline make pupils more likely to turn to crime and drugs, Government research has revealed.”
Awaiting further information on the Pope and bears.
OT. Nice line from ‘4 Goats.’ What’s the first thing the French say when they go to war?
‘Dunno. I give up’.
‘You got it in two’.
264 Poor bald hedge-pig!
266 Roger Is there a 4th rule of Smithson?
taking comfort from a single poll to grab any possible positive available, when none exists.
266 - Roger love - you really are so hopeless, useless, witless and clueless at forecasting polls it’s painful to read.
Stick to mincing around with coke snorting vacuous wasters in silly Timmy Mallett glasses and pony tails, contributing nothing to our world other than filming pathetic commercials for kit e kat or whatever it is you do when you’re not boring the other ex-pats on the Cote D’Azur.
Leave the psephology to the big boys ok?
241 Plato
My view of Cameron and Hague’s EU policy is that it is tactically and strategically very clever.
Tactically, Cameron wants to:
1. Remove Europe as a major issue in the GE;
2. Unite his party;
3. Buy time to allow the Tories to concentrate on economic recovery in his first term;
4. Buy time to allow the ECR group to stabilise and gain influence and momentum in Europe;
5. Avoid alienating his major EU partners but keep the pressure on by demanding deliverable concessions;
6. Allow blame for more extreme action on Europe - if necessary - to build during his first term and to transfer to France and Germany - if they frustrate his intermediate demands.
His announced policy achieves all the above.
Strategically, his position is to remain within Europe but to prevent it from becoming federalist. Initially he will fight for limited repatriation of powers to Britain which do not impact on the remainder of the EU. This is his first term agenda.
He will also prepare the ground for further reform or exit. Radical reform cannot be achieved by the UK alone. He has therefore chosen to ally himself - initially - with the new entrants in Central Europe. If successful he will later expand the reform alliance with pickings from the peripheral members - Nordics, Benelux, Iberia and the Mediterranean fringe.
To prepare ‘for the worst’ he is also preparing an exit strategy with the blame transference demands of his first term. The threat of Cameron including a radical referendum commitment in the manifesto for a second term will concentrate the minds of Sarkozy and Merkel.
In the short term, the inconclusive reaction of the MSM and the polls to his announcement is only an irritant. I sometimes wonder whether the deal with Santa Klaus was more about the timing of his announcement - post conference, pre New Year - than any real attempt to derail the Lisbon Treaty.
Aguecheek at 271 - what a patronising git you are
266. Says the man supporting the party languishing at 24% six months before a general election!
268- Roger
I didn’t count you as a member of the routinely puerile French-bashers on here. I guess I was wrong…
Re Kirkbride, I heard Jonathan Isaby on Radio5 being asked about this and he claimed there was concern in constituenccy parties around the Worcestershire/Herefordshire region about Kirkbride standing and the high profile negative coverage it would attract for the Tories.
I hope I lose my bet.
This is a very good poll for Labour.
It shows their vote has stabilised and the only way is up.
Meanwhile the Conservatives support is starting to erode and has taken them into the psychologically significant 30’s. Not very far off their 2005 result.
273 - Feeling sorry for Roger?
There are few bigger prats on PB. The guy is a joke with his non-stop drooling, whining self-loathing anti-Cameron cr@p
Don’t waste pity on such a prize tool John…..Now, tim - he really is a sad loser broadcasting like a modern Lord Haw Haw from the bunker
bulshit this poll is riged
277 One poll from a new pollster and you draw all these conclusions?
For the football fans out there
http://www.theoffside.com/world-football/meet-elizabeth-lambert-the-roughest-soccer-player-in-the-world.html
277 JimM
Are you the twin brother of BenM?
275. French Chris. No you’d have been right. An unashamed francophile ashamed that I laughed out loud at the cinema. It’s just the way George Clooney tells ‘em.
(PS. Didn’t you mention ‘A Prophet’? Excellent. Better than ‘Mesrine’)')
278: ‘There are few bigger prats on PB. The guy is a joke with his non-stop drooling, whining self-loathing anti-Cameron cr@p’
That is an outrageous slur! Roger is a man of good sense and decency with an long and proud career in advertising. Why, I believe it was Roger who wrote the famous piece of music that goes ‘Oooooooooo Body Form. Body Form for yoooooouuuuuu’. A pithy but unimprovable masterpiece! As for tim, he is an adorable little fellow who never fails to lighten my day.
277. Have you got any idea how awful Labours postition is in this poll? We’re six months before a general election and Labour are plumbing depths no governing party has ever plumbed before at this point in a Parliament!
81
A thing of beauty is a joy forever,
GET STUCK IN THERE, GAL!
283- Roger
Indeed, I recommended “A Prophet” a few weeks back.
It has been chosen as France candidate to the Oscars for Best Foreign Picture.
All other films from Jacques Audiard are brilliant, especially
A Self-Made Hero (Un héros très discret, 1996) and The Beat That My Heart Skipped (De battre mon cœur s’est arrêté, 2005). The latter has also my favorite title (in French) of all recent French films.
More importantly is the effect Kirkbride will have in the West Midlands. Bromsgrove merges into the Birmingham area and part of the Lonbridge car works was actually in Bromsgrove.
Bromsgrove neighbours these seats:
Birmingham Edgbaston Lab maj 2187
Birmingham Northfield Lab maj 8179
Birmingham Selly Oak Lab maj 8354
Solihull LibDem MP but notional Con maj 17
Meridien Con maj 7767
Stratford on Avon Con maj 11059
Redditch Lab maj 1948
Worcestershire Mid Con maj 12791
Wyre Forest Ind maj 4574
Stourbridge Lab maj 1285
Halesowen Lab maj 4140
There must be at least 8 Conservative candidates (including 5 women) who must really hate Kirkbride right now.
284 I think D*rex ads would be much more fun to make
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uqt3Zb7BItA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bizJWtJ0xXo
I have little doubt that the others vote is going to be high in the election. I can’t really understand the logic of those who think it will collapse, the voters’ reasons range from corrupt practices to the major parties perceived weakness on the areas that are their raison d’etre. They aren’t going to go away and, while there may be some short term rise because of the EU stuff, those UKIP/BNP/Green figures have been high for months now with little sign of that collapse.
282. Yes, yes I am making those conclusions Plato.
285. Labour have been stable about this point for a few weeks. From there the only way is up. And remember they got 36% at the last election. That target is not that great an ask.
John Major fell about 12% between 92 and 97 from a very wafer thin majority in the first place.
That contrast shows Labour has an inbuilt advantage within the First Past the Post system.
The loss of support for the Conservatives after their Europe announcement should set alarm bells ringing. If we take the lower end of the margin of error they could be at 35%. Worringly close to their 2005 result.
291 Jim M “If we take the lower end of the margin of error they could be at 35%. ”
You are RodCrosby and I claim my YouGov 50p
Aguecheek - Roger has been amiably contributing to the site for years and helps keep the political balance from getting completely askew. You are AFAIK more or less new, and very welcome too, but it’d be nice if you didn’t start off by slagging off other people.
287. OT. (I liked ‘Un héros très discret’ a lot. I think he wrote it as well).
So, we’ve now had two PB-ARS polls, and already we can see there’s something substantially wrong: the polls are massively overstating others.
What’s wrong with the methodology and how are they going to fix it?
[236] - Incredible that Labour and LibDems could ditch their election manifesto commitments on Lisbon with virtually no outcry at all, but Cameron gets denounced for a U Turn when the thing gets ratified. What twisted logic is that?
I did think it took a very special kind of bravado on the part of, for example, Harriet Harman, to go on and on about this. Sometimes you simply have to admire their ability to get all the words out without breaking into giggles.
277.
What’s it like living with the fairie’s?
Your post is the funniest most unbelievable one for ages, you have made Tim and Roger sound ALMOST normal ! Sorry just wet myself laughing!
295 Is it the ‘who would you support in your constituency’ question?
So when do the Tories start to worry
38
37
36?
…
Jim M 277 “This is a very good poll for Labour” Is it? Diabolical 24% for Labour. 14% lead for the Tories in line with their average lead over past few months & sufficient for a reasonable overall majority.
“Conservatives support is starting to erode and has taken them into the psychologically significant 30’s”. YouGov polled at same time gave the Tories 41% so why do you assume this poll is more reliable? In any event most of us saw the possibility of a short term drop in Tory support because of the European issue but expect it to largely reverse.
[295] - Assuming the question still uses “support” rather than “vote for” I would guess that has a large effect boosting others. The other part might be as to how the choices are listed on the page in terms of the order of the parties, and whether the Others are in a separate section or not.
299 It’s the share that matters not the headline numbers - if Labour are on 15 and the Tories are on 29 it’s still 14 points.
299 continually in the 30s and a single digit lead = concerned
high 30s/low 40s and double digit = Catherine Tate
289. What can I say? I wish I’d done them! I did an Italian one once. Similar idea but with two Nike shoes.
295,
I got slapped down earlier by Mike, for suggesting this Martin re the high level of others!
But I would be very surprised that if behind the scenes Mike wasn’t having some high level talks with ARS, before they become known as comedy res mk2 !
293 - Is that your normal sly way of censoring me Nick? Roger is a prat although probably not a member of Broxtowe Conservative Foot Fetishists for Palmer, or any other of your phoney Conservatives for Palmer outfits, none of which will save you from the abyss next May.
So when do the Labour start to worry..
25
24
23?
…
that is worry about the Lib Dem overtaking them!
[299] - The Tories would be sensible to wait for more than one poll giving them a dodgy number before worrying. A lead of less than 10 points probably makes more sense as a starting point to worry than their own score [ie Con:40, Lab:32 is more worrying than Con:36, Lab:22].
A 14% lead is, well, immense. I still remember the days of “10 Browns/Camerons” when such a lead was considered unusual. How far we have come.
Well said Nick. The childish name calling just gives off images of the school yard.
A private one at that with Harry Flashman and his gang in tow.
ARS - never in the field of political polling has 1 pollster been so high for so many others!
307 I remember the halcyon days when we used to wonder if Labour would give Gordon the boot if they fell below 30, then 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23…
and then they got their spectacular EU votes…
293 Nick, people have been deriding Roger on here, but not always in such forceful terms ever since I found this site. Why should aguasheek be derived the pleasure. However, perhaps a moderation in tome might be in order…..
Strikes me that Labour at 24% must be very worrying for you in Broxtowe. Perhaps thats why you chose Aguacheek to comment on , rather than the real issue of Labour at Micheal “donkeyjacket” Foot level in the polls.
306 - well, he’s right on the issue, isn’t he? Mike does argue that lots of Cameron exposure produces a bump in the Tory rating, and on this occasio9n (admittedly a rather severe test) it’s gone the other way. I’m not convinced the effect is especially lasting, but it does show the fragility of the Tory position that one bad day in the media puts them back to just 4% over their GE score.
311 - We were always told that 30% was the absolute bedrock of Labour support, now if they manage to register it in any poll, it seems like they have won the £90 million Euro Millions lottery.
313
And how are Labour doing?
294- Roger
Audiard wrote, or co-wrote all his movies’ scenarios.
(incidentally he is the son of Michel Audiard, probably the most successful and popular French film writer ever)
However, some of them are based on novels.
“Un héros très discret” was first a (great) novel from Jean Francois Deniau.
Deniau was an incredible man:
- he wrote the Rome Treaty preamble at 28
- european comnmissionner at 32
- ambassador at 35
- european commissioner in charge of UK entry negotiations at 39
- minister at 45
- ambassador to Spain and councillor of king Juan Carlos (a friend) during the democratic transition
- euro MP for 7 years and French MP for 20 years
- secret missions to Afghanistan during the 80ies
- editorialist for two mewspapers for decades
- crossed the Atlantic alone on his bot at 68 after a triple bypass
- wrote more than 20 novels and elected to the Academie française
No wonder his autobiography was titled “Memories of 7 lives”…
Surely the best way to test Smithsons rule would be for Cameron to run a high profile campaign supporting Julie Kirkbride.
313 see 312
but in Labours truly desperate situation, with the handicap of Gordon Brown as leader, I can see why you might like to draw every bit of spin possible.. or are you beginning to believe Jarhead!
Hows the plotting going by the way?
YOU’RE 14 POINTS BEHIND YOU STUPID F*CKWITS!!!
292. Plato. So you don”t believe that the lower margin of error would have the Conservatives on 35%?
So what would the lower margin of error put them on with this poll?
And Wayne do you have any coherent rebuttal to put or are you just intent on presenting this image of the Conservatives as a gang of wailing public school billies? Thus helping raise the image of the Bullingdon Club?
255 That hurts to look at. Either she was helicoptered in or wore wellies which she’s hidden behind the bale, cos if you walked bare legged through that stubble you’d cut yourself to ribbons. As I’m sure any farmers in these parts would confirm…
crossed the Atlantic alone on his bot
That certainly sounds remarkable
320
321- runnymede
Nice typo from me… I may have been influenced by the perennial discussion of bots on here!
320 - My stubble rubs bare legs less often than it used to.
319 The lower margain of error would have Labour on 21% I think would it not? And the upper end of the Tory margin at 41%.
Depends what way you want to look at it.
320 look again, she is wearing some sort of shoes..
[313] - ..puts them back to just 4% over their GE score.
That’s an interesting way of looking at it. Changes are compared to GE2005 [roughly by memory]
Lab 24 [-12]
Con 38 [+4]
LD 20 [-2]
Labour need to get back at least half of their lost voters, I would have thought. It’s a huge ask. They don’t seem to have any argument beyond “The Tories will wreck it.” Whilst that might be true, it is unfortunately easily countered by the retort “I thought you lot already had.”
OT What a load of b0llocks - I’m sure Zarzai must be quaking in his boots.
“Whitehall officials said Brown’s ultimatum did not imply a threatened withdrawal of British troops but rather a withholding of political support if Karzai did not improve his government in five areas laid out in the speech.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/06/brown-karzai-afghanistan-corruption
Sounds like Gordon’s advice to S0malian pirates following international law when taking hostages - pfft.
326. you look again, they don’t come nearly high enough to help. it’s the top of the stalk that would cut you.
319 Jim M
Cut your hair, polish your shoes, fix your tie and control your vowels.
An Etonian and Bullingdon Club cabinet is coming. Remain an oik you run the risk of being chased by Boris holding an iron bar.
328 - What a leader, what a man of courage…maybe answers about what is his favourite biscuit and who he likes on X-Factor are the extent of his “leadership” abilities!
329 Agreed - she’d be cut to ribbons without stout shin high boots or wellies.
332 Plato
She was parachuted in.
325. Quite right but we know the Conservatives have a general election figure of 33% which makes the possibility of them being on 35% more credible than Labour being on 21%.
Plus Labour have been averaging at that level so it very likely they have stabalised.
Since Cameron chose to come out strongly on Europe aand opt for a near sceptic position that didn’t even please his sceptics we have seen an erosion in Conservative support.
They should be worried. Very worried. He has reawoken all those images of a party obsessed with an issue many voters place little significance on. He also has to deal with the corrosive imagery of splits.
By surrendering a position he didn’t have to surrender - remember Labour held a post-Treaty referendum on 1975 - he has only opened up new arguments and issues.
312 Nick, and others making great claims on one poll. Nothing to be excited about.
Sample variation:
YouGov did two separate polls on the 9th October. One came out 44:27:17, the other 42:28:19. So on same day, same methodology , same company Conservatives +2, Labour -1, LD -2 (or of course vice versa C-2, L+1, LD+2).
BPIX on same day did two polls: 42:28:18 & 43:29:16 (C+1,L+1, LD-2)
Differing methodology
When we got the last AR Poll it showed same Conservative lead as did ICM & Mori but Conservative & Labour 3%/4% down on their shares. This one shows same lead as YouGov but Conservative & Labour 3% dopwn against YouGov.
335. run along you sad little troll, there’s a good thing.
PB-ARS are new to British polling, and I’m sure it will take them a while to iron out their kinks.
But I wonder if they’ve noticed that they’re getting suspiciously and implausible high figures for others, if they’re concerned about it, and what they plan to do about it.
Mike? I presume you have some kind of hotline into their thinking. How about setting up a PBC Q&A with some of their bods?
Jim M, you’re FOURTEEN POINTS BEHIND!
14!!
FOURTEEN!!!
335 you are making yourself a hostage to fortune here based on one poll. The YouGov released yesterday after the EU stuff showed movement for the Tories and a decline of a point for Labour. 2% movement in one poll does not make a trend.
Or will you come on and confirm the Tory support is surging next time a poll shows them adding 2%?
As for the Tories and 33%, that was 4 and a half years ago under different leaders, in different circumstances with different proposed policies.
335. So presumably you think that “stabilising” at 24% and being 14 points adrift is a reason not to be worried….or even very worried.
313.”but it does show the fragility of the Tory position that one bad day in the media puts them back to just 4% over their GE score.”
Some posts just write themselves. This poll does show the fragility of the Labour position, and a bad in the media everyday puts them down in the lower 20’s vying for second/third place with the Libdems.
337 I suspect that Jim M hasn’t quite grasped how savvy the PB crowd is.
The whole “…remember Labour held a post-Treaty referendum on 1975 - he has only opened up new arguments and issues.” speaks volumes. It was only 34 yrs ago…
I’m sure he’ll be telling us that the Tories need to match Tony’s 97 poll ratings next.
342. I’m surprised your savvy crew haven’t noticed yet.
Cut off your nose to spite your face? Labour really not learning how to deal with the BNP. As Speccy blog notes, Hain on Hard Talk had nothing to offer. Can see Nick Griffin loving this, adds into his whole campaign of the system against him…
Commons decided to withdraw Commons passes from serving MEPs.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/farage-goes-ballistic-over-commons-ban.html
Wonder what the Labour MEP think about this change?
What wiv’ Wellieboots smacking a Labour MP’s bottie, and now this guy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1225752/Drunk-city-mayor-suspended-making-lewd-sexual-comments-women.html
What a lot we have to look forward too.
Going to be interesting to watch AR and YouGov go head to head in the next GE. I suspect that the way the voting intention questions are worded will end up canceling each other out this time around because this GE will lead to possible change of government.
“An Etonian and Bullingdon Club cabinet is coming. Remain an oik you run the risk of being chased by Boris holding an iron bar.”
New Tory national curriculum to include eloqution lessons…
My Father’s Car is a Jag-U-ar……
344 (correction) It was Straight Talk, not Hard Talk.
343 My savvy crew?
@345:
Dunno, but apparently Farage went ballistic.
349 I find Hain very annoying at the best of times - will I need a new PC if I watch him on iPlayer?
Why are these threads on a Friday so foul tempered? Last time I was here on Friday everyone was in a frightful fizz - that elderly chap from Farnham (or wherever it was) leading the way with some fearful invective concerning the Smethwick election campaign of 1964. I unplugged my internet connection I was so unnerved!
John Rentoul at Independent Minds - Gordon’s smelly socks
353 It’s the absinthe
351.Martin, that is what I call a result.
351 - I would say quite rightly too (and I’m no fan of Farage). This is all to keep the BNP out, a legal democratically elected party (again much that I detest their views). Has anybody voted on this change, etc? No, of course not. How long have they been granted access, I am guessing since the creation of MEP’s?
351 hopefully Farage will set up camp outside Westminster in protest so Gollum can wave to him from the Palace windows.
Farage is a goofball.
An incredible swarm of Labour clones seem to have crawled out the woodwork all of a sudden. Do they lurk waiting for their moment to pounce? Sinister lot these Labour supporters.
354
I’m impressed that Mr Events managed to listen at all - I experienced a Snoopy moment - wr wr wr Afghanistan wr wr wr troops wr wr wr billions wr…
353.Starkey, I know what you mean, it does get a bit fraught on here on a Friday nite these days. I would advise a wee trip to the Daily Mail front page or Conhom to allow you to gather your nerves before venturing back into PB.com.
359 You are wrong WRONG I tell you, Mr Simon said so
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
354 - “As with any Brown speech, it falls apart as soon as he sits down.”
He never ever learns does he! If he really does end up in academia (I know the latest spin is “going to do charity work”), but you know secretly he wants to teach at an Ivy League College amongst the East Coast Liberal Elite, as he had no success in academia before. I wonder if he will take any questions? Cos I reckon the smarts at those kind of places may well be a lot faster on the draw than the lobby hacks over here.
353 - I’m in a good mood and pleased to see Martin Coxall on his weekend pass from the horrific internment in Con Home.
360.Plato, I got the fright of my life today, found the dog with its nose in his big bag of food. And then I realised that something was moving inside the bag, it was the cat!
I think Farage is right to be angry to be denied access to the Commons after 10 years just because Griffin wins a seat.
BIG BIG BIG mistake by Labour MPs to stop Griffin (and other MEPs) from entering Westminster. Once again, they increase sympathy for the extremists. Why can’t these people learn that just ignoring people like Griffin is often the best policy?
I do love a laugh
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2009/11/bradshaw-reform-interview
“Ben Bradshaw’s office at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, off Trafalgar Square in central London, is a vast and colourful room, and the Culture Secretary is in good spirits. Yet surely, as a long-time supporter of proportional representation, he was disappointed by the Prime Minister’s decision to delay a referendum on electoral reform until after the next election?
Bradshaw is blunt from the outset. “I don’t think that’s set in stone,” he tells us, “and I think there’s still an argument to be made.”
This optimistic claim is one of a string of surprisingly frank statements that Bradshaw volunteers about the government’s evolving policy on electoral reform - and its failure to back proportional representation (PR). When Gordon Brown finally announced Labour’s shift away from first-past-the-post (FPTP) at the party conference in September, some of his advisers were greatly relieved, given the Prime Minister’s history of caution and conservatism on this matter. One Downing Street aide told us at the time that Brown agreed to sign off on the move only hours before he delivered his speech to delegates in Brighton. “And so I can announce today that, in Labour’s next manifesto, there will be a commitment for a referendum to be held early in the next parliament,” Brown said. “It will be for the people to decide whether they want to move to the alternative vote.”
353
Yeah! but its a little more entertaining than those trying to impress with their, ‘whopping intellect’
Farnham, the 1/2 marathon used to be started by the fragrant Virgin Bottom MP.
@364:
I’m allowed time off for good behaviour, because I didn’t stab nobody with a knife fashioned from my own shed scrotal skin.
Oh damn, Ross Noble is on HIGNUY this evening (saw him live and one of the funniest things have seen in a long time), but shall not be watching as friggin Toilets is on there too and I may end up damaging my screen having to watch that smug git for 30 minutes. Wonder how many references to Druggie Dave, Bullingdon and the CON..servatives they will edit out?
334 Jim M
You can’t even argue your own cause effectively.
Labour have not been averaging at a level of 24%. The average is between 26% and 28%. If you don’t believe my estimate go to http://www.pollingreport.co.uk and either work it out yourself or
look at their graph of polling trends.
The first Angus Reid poll maintained the same gap between Labour and the Tories as contemporaneous polls from other pollsters. However, the AR polls have however shown lower shares for Labour and the Tories and corresponding higher shares for Others. Why this is the case has not been fully explained although I think the posters upstream focussing on the “vote for” vs. “support in” phrasing difference in the VI question are getting close.
You are probably right to guess that the drop in the Tory vote share is a reaction the media focus on Cameron’s announcement of his EU policy. It is not likely to be a considered and nuanced appraisal of his strategy and far more likely to be a gut reaction to the “U-Turn” and “Betrayal” charges levied in sound bite interviews in the news bulletins. It is likely to be a blip rather than a trend and most of us on here expect the Tory share to climb back to its 40%-42% average in the next polling cycle.
No one objects to you arguing in favour of the Labour cause. Just try to do it intelligently.
365 My cats love dog food - I put in a spoon of Bisto and it drives them wild!
I had a kitty that went really chubby and I couldn’t work out how - I came down one night and discovered her asleep in the biscuit bag
Not that savvy since no one’s noticed yet.
372 I thought cats were obligate carnivores and shouldn’t eat dogfood. Dogs being omnivores really.
372.Leo the persian loves the dog’s food and his treats. Got to stop him trying to get into the cupboard where they are all kept. Loves crisps too, will appear from anywhere in the house if you rattle a packet.
372.I hadn’t realised that I had not closed the bag properly today or shut the door, couldn’t believe that the cat had just climbed into the bag, the dog didn’t seem to mind as long as he was getting a feed too!
Does anyone know why Q of Sport isn’t available on iPlayer live? Seems a very odd exclusion.
new thread
345 Anglophobic scumbag Hain is desperate to stop the BNP at all costs, unfortunately the BNP will add this to their ammunition. Just read the blogs on the Mail, Sun, Telegraph, etc and you see 95% of contributers have sympathy for the BNP. Most BNP supporters believe Griffin did very well on the QT interview under difficult circumstances. Some floating voters will vote BNP to stick two fingers up to the lefty scumbags.
The UK establishment must come to terms with the BNP in the same way as British citizens are forced to accept unwanted political correctness. So Sinn Fein is acceptable to Hain but the BNP who have not killed anyone are not acceptable!
376 Thank you so much, Plato. My 20 year old cat has been off her food for the last couple of days because she’s so frightened of fireworks that she’d rather starve than leave her safe haven in the shoe cupboard. But I’ve just put a spoonful of Bisto in her Whiskas and she’s absolutely whuffed it down. I’m grateful. She’s a foul-tempered old lady - but so am I - and I love her to bits.
On topic, IMO the critical factor in determining the ‘others’ votes will be the number of candidates BNP/UKIP can put up. If UKIP had the money to field candidates across the board I think they’d mop up both anti-European and anti-immigration votes. But they haven’t got the money and they haven’t got the leadership, either. BNP ditto. Just as well. With money and effective leadership, I think we’d see a huge swing to the hard right which I find a terrifying prospect.
the yougov poll is a thousand times more reliable than this nonsense. according to them, the tories have gained a point. I know which one of the two I believe.