Is this what happens when the world thinks you are a loser?
November 8th, 2009
Would his plan have gone through if his ratings were better?
The key impact that opinion polls have is not in predicting the general election but in setting the whole back-cloth for the way current politics is conducted.
So is this how we should explain the lack of support for Mr. Brown’s tax plan from other leading countries at yesterday’s meeting of G20 finance minister?
If Brown looked set to continue in office for the next five years then his ideas would have had to be taken more seriously by our international partners. But they can read the polls and hardly anyone believes that Brown will be in the job by June. This is what happens at the fag-end of a government.
A couple of the Sunday political columnists pick up the theme that power is already transferring to Mr. Cameron. This is how Matthew D’Ancona sees it in the Sunday Telegraph.
“Let the record show that the Cameron government came into being on November 4 2009. Not officially, of course: that must await the formalities of a general election and the kissing of hands. But last week was the moment that we started to treat David Cameron as the de facto leader of the nation, with all the attendant scrutiny and expectations….Jack Straw has often observed that – in the voters’ minds – New Labour has been in power since Tony Blair became leader of the Opposition in July 1994. The equivalent shift became observable on Wednesday, as Cameron announced his party’s new policy on the European Union. The response of the domestic media (Cameron’s first big U-turn) and our continental partners (the Tories are “autistic”) was the response one accords to a governing party, or a party so close to being in government that it makes no odds”
The Independent on Sunday’s John Rentoul who’s a Tony Blair biographer has some interesting insights comparing the Cameron style with that of the former Labour leader. Writing about the Lisbon referendum decision Rentoul notes “..that in one bound Cameron is free.”
“..Delaying last week’s announcement until the Lisbon Treaty was finally a legal fact was cowardly, intellectually unsatisfactory and absolutely right. The delay allowed the Foxite wing of his party to come to terms in advance with their betrayal. Cameron now has as much room for manoeuvre on Europe as is possible while leading a fundamentally Eurosceptic party… In a negative sense, then, of getting awkward stuff out of the way, Cameron is prepared for government.”
The problem for Gordon in all of this is that these perceptions make his challenge that much harder. How can her persuade voters that he’s the right man when this is how the world treats him? Just compare this weekend with the response he got after other intentional gatherings in the past twelve months.
Life’s tough - perhaps he ought to invite John Major for a natter over a cup of tea?
Mike Smithson
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mmmm according to the Beeb Geithner didn’t reject the idea of a Tobin Tax, perhaps they don’t have Sky..
“US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was asked about the tax and insisted on showing what he called “due deference to his host” in Scotland.
So, he didn’t dismiss the idea outright but nor did he offer even a hint of support. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8348895.stm
“How can her persuade voters that he’s the right man when this is how the world treats him?”
He can’t.
Also, what possesed the man to announce this the day before the G20, I mean what game is he playing? Was he badly advised or just gone ‘rogue’ again Sheesh.
Fourth ?
Brown, just call the damn election.
5-Brown, just call the damn election.
No, Brown, please please please go. Go.
More importantly, the House of Representatives has passed their version of the healthcare bill (albeit with an anti-abortion amendment most Brits would find rather strange).
That was the easy half. Now the pressure is ratcheted up both on Harry Reid, but also on the Blue Dogs, and Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins, in the Senate.
I suspect they will compromise to a triggered public option - whether the full public option is brought back in when it goes to conference, who knows.
FPT
At 6.50pm yesterday, stjohn that well-known punting farmer, asked:
“On the timing of the next election; if we are still in recession at the end of this year, how could Brown possibly call a March election?
Surely he would be forced to wait until May, in the hope that the recession would be over by then?”
Er… well no actually, he almost certainly already knows, as Darling tacitly admitted on Friday, that the economy will remain in recession during Q4 2009.
Going for a March GE also provides him with the last opportunity of avoiding what would otherwise require his Chancellor having to make a truly horrendous Budget Statement. Add to this the real “killer” prospect that the economy might well even remain in recession throughout Q1 2010 - that would make it three quarters after the other major economies had started to recover.
Brown knows this and realises that such an eventuality would completely destroy him and his party - hence the likely dash for a March 2010 GE and why the odds against this month have shortened so sharply from the 25/1 I took just a few weeks ago and my top-up bet at 12/1 from Chandlers earlier this week, to just 5/1 now.
The word is out - there are now less than 4 months until the dissolution - it’s hardly worth bothering with the Queen’s speech, after all, the MPs have another 3 weeks holiday over Christmas don’t they?
Now I must go and check out the spread on that “Brown and Out” market with Sporting.
8 Peter from Putney
Surely, given how awful last Q4 was, there is absolutely no chance of GDP shrinking this quarter? Not to mention the £25bn extra QE.
The Foxite wing?!!! Betrayal!!!
Rentoul is looking for Tory eurosceptic bogeymen. Cameron needs the media to win the election. He won’t get it unless he does enough to convince them he’s betrayed his eurosceptics. But has he really? Is this a double blind?
Cameron has achieved an amazing thing. He has Farage screaming his EU Policy is a sell-out, and Miliband that it will lead to EU withdrawal. Everyone sees in the policy what they fear….or in Rentoul’s case what he desires.
Cameron keeps token Europhiles like Clarke, Heseltine and earlier sellers out to EU pressure, such as Hague, in top positions, while Fox’s lips are firmly bu but but it might all be media window-dressing.
Rentoul’s obliging him by falling for the trick, and D’Ancona to a lesser extent.
9 - Are the GDP figures not done on a quarter by quarter basis? So what happened in last Q4 is irrelevant?
Not like the inflation figures which are published monthly but cover data for the whole year.
11 alex
I thought they were seasonally adjusted, but may be wrong.
12 - they are. Never completely understand the implications of that though.
8 Sporting’s “Brown and Out” spread is currently 1005-1015. By my calculations, the mid spread price of 1010 implies a hypothetical GE date of 2 April 2010.
If one were to totally discount the prospect of there being an election prior to the end of January (I appreciate that although miniscule, such a prospect cannot be totally ignored), then this spread is suggests that the chance of an election between 1 February - 2 April (61 days)is almost precisely the same as one between 2 April - 3 June (62 days).
This seems to be at odds with the other betting markets, which appear obsessed with 6 May.
7. How am I supposed to moon after Boris now? This is awful.
Seriously, I don’t understand the “you can have an abortion if it’s rape” concession. If abortion is murder, you’re still killing the poor baby. It’s not its fault that it was born from rape. It’s very obviously a judgement on the woman–if she consented to sex, she has to have the child whether she wants to or not. If she didn’t, then she’s free to kill her child.
(I don’t think abortion is murder, by the way, but that is the logical conclusion if you think that abortion is murder–women can be murderesses in some situations, but not others.)
Home Office covered up immigration risk
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6907991.ece
15 - Furthermore, some rape cases can take quite a long time. Can you have an abortion without the judgement of a court that you have been raped?
And what of cases where the legal uncertainty is identity rather than the existence of the crime?
How Labour depends on the votes of Welfare Britain
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226031/EXPOSED-How-Labour-depends-votes-Welfare-Britain.html
13(con) - i sort of assumed that ’seasonally adjusted’ meant that it was adjusted for historical trends, of which a single previous year’s data can only have a minor influence.
10 Tapestry. Probably true. Two points I disagree with in the thread. 1). Brown’s tax-plan was not viable under ANY circumstances. It would be impossible to get agreement from the world banking community, even with US agreement. It only needed one major player to refuse, for it to fail. 2). Cameron’s refusal to hold a referendum was NOT cowardly. It was obvious from the beginning that it would be totally pointless once ratification had taken place. This is why it has been so easy to persuade almost all Euro-sceptics among politicians in the Conservative party to support his policies - the Art of the Possible, which columnists don’t have to be bothered with.
18- Someone made the point on a previous thread that the votes of ‘welfare Britain’ are pretty unhelpful in electoral terms under FPTP.
There is however an interesting subtext to the next election which could be of crucial importance to the future - the issue of electoral ‘bias’. Two of the major reasons for the perception of bias at present are the large differential turnout between Labour and Tory heartland voters and the relative absence of a third party threat to otherwise Labour seats.
Considering claims (and misunderstanding ) of bias will likely drive Conservative demands to cut swathes of Labour seats under the guise of ‘cutting the cost of Parliament’ it is important, all other things being equal for Labour to reduce the ‘bias’ perception. The second point may be addressed to some extent by the increasing SNP and Libdem threat to labour, but the former is dependent on them getting the ‘welfare vote’ out in large numbers.
Regarding economy and timing of election
A personal anecdote - Our company does work for many councils and local authorities, all are trying now to spend remaining money because they know there will be no budget next year (after March). No doubt this will lead to a big boost for the next 6 months, but after that it will be harder.
Multiply this by lots of other organizations and you’ll see a mirage recovery now, and a downturn in April - June - ie the W shaped recession with real recovery in late 2010 early 2011.
21. Cutting the number of MPs and abolishing county borders will reduce the number of labour seats considerably.
And a crackdown on benefits and illegal immigration will also reduce the electorate in strong labour areas where population growth might have been expected to keep those seats intact.
No doubt postal voting will be made harder to prevent “community leaders” ending up with more influence than they should.
As a side effect it will also lead to some significant fratricide as the labour heavyweights that are left fight each other for the remaining safe seats.
And of course there’ll also be the independent inquiries showing current labour ministers actually broke the law (e.g. home office) leading to some interesting legal actions and resignations.
To answer the question: no. Tobin taxes are not a new idea (or they’d be named after Gordon Brown) and each country will already have decided its position.
But the headlines are what happens when the media has turned against you. As Peter Oborne suggested last week: imagine what the papers would have made of Gordon Brown if he and not Cameron had announced and then reversed a major policy in three days.
Speaking of journalism, once more the BBC leads on a US domestic story (no doubt taking its cue from the American satellite news channels).
d’Ancona’s comment is interesting: ‘bar the ‘formalities’ of a general Election…’. Given our crazy voting system, yes, we can declare 2/3 of the seats now, and only 2 people can possibly be PM.
22 - That doesn’t make any sense. If Council’s are bracing themselves for big funding cuts they will be trying to spend as little as possible to build up the reserves.
You don’t plan for having no income in the future by spending more money now.
26 “You don’t plan for having no income in the future by spending more money now.”
You do if, as is common in large organisations in the public and private sectors, any unspent budget at the end of the financial year is lost. And often your department’s budget will be permanently reduced by that amount.
26 - There is hardly an electoral system in the world where the majority of winners aren’t known in advance.
Having more than two candidates for PM is even less unusual. (although one can easily foresee that there are more than two on this occasion - I could see the LibDems supporting Labour in a hung Parliament on the condition that Brown steps down).
Alex @ 21 “Considering claims (and misunderstanding ) of bias will likely drive Conservative demands to cut swathes of Labour seats under the guise of ‘cutting the cost of Parliament’ it is important, all other things being equal for Labour to reduce the ‘bias’ perception.”
In England in 2005…
Conservatives won 194 seats from 8,115,000 votes
Labour won 286 seats from 8,050,000 votes
LibDems won 47 seats from 5,201,000 votes
That’s not a ‘perceived’ bias.
The world community didn’t drop Brown’s crap idea because he was unpopular. Rather, Brown is unmpopular because he has crap ideas.
Perhaps he could attempt to get the G20 to adopt some of his other cracking notions. Like the 10p tax. “Hey guys, try this one - punching your poor in the face because they are poor. It’s a winner….”
Brown’s problem at the G20 is that he steers a country still in recession. He speaks the language of someone whose economy is not yet in growth. He is fluent in his native tongue of Loser. A country where banker bonuses remain politically toxic because the nation hasn’t even attained the heady heights of 0% growth. His fellow leaders however are trying to forget the dark episode of recent history.
There is now a possibility - slight yet real - that whenever the election is held, Labour has to go to the country with the economy still in recession. In stark contrast to the rest of the world. Brown - the world’s biggest loser. Brown’s last ace - the timing of the election - lost to Cameron’s two of trumps. No message to deliver other than “B-B-B-But - the Tories would have been worse.”
No-one has yet got their heads around the scale of loss that would give Labour.
how many more numpties would be added to the public payroll to administer such a tax? Gordon does not understand how the real world works. in fact i doubt that many politicians do.
27 - well that is true and IMO a major contribution for waste in the public sector (where i work (local government) we certainly don’t follow that ridiculous policy). However since Local Govt is not funded on that basis (although individual departments within councils might), it is not rational for Local Authorities (as a whole) to adopt that position.
26 - Yes it is, unless you are an advocate of Proportional Representation.
Official recession is a technical matter. Real practical recession has been with us for 2 years, ask most businesses and housholds. Prices are rising fast in the Supermarkets and it is hurting. People whose mortgages have reduced significantly with the interest cut are loathe to move because they will probably have to take out another at a higher rate, unemployment will keep on rising for some time, viz USA. The actual position for consumers continues along a bottom line irrespective of whether the economy shows a growth of 0.01% here and there.
I would have thought the best thing for the government to do is to simply shut up for a few weeks, they are balmed by many for the appalling deficit the country faces, more than anyone else, something alone which could keep us down for some time.
The one hope is the falling value of the pound, that shouls help our exporters, because however much we may not like to hear this, we cannot live on banking and house prices alone, it requires hard work, items being produced and sold. Life is going to be bloody hard, unless of course you are rich, wealthy and dare I say, it leaders of political parties, particuarly the Conservatives.
Coldstone pasted a link a while back about the Conservatives first direct meeting with Sinn Fein since Major’s Government, It happened because, after the DUP & Sinn Fein had worked out with UK Government both the terms of devolution of policing and increased aid from the Treasury, the Northern Ireland Executive needed the Conservatives to confirm their agreement and support before finalising the policy.
In Wales Plaid sought a statement from Cameron on their demand for further devolution and despite their coalition with Labour will I think increasingly disregard Peter Hain and their Labour allies seeking an accomodation with the Conservatives.
Important because it recognised that in some areas Cameron has a de facto veto, not to necessarily stop but to delay. Recognition that this Government’s writ only runs until May 2010 at latest (Parliament dissolved then) and the views of the likely next Government are increasingly more important than the current one.
26/33 (con) - It is also likely after the next election that the simplistic “votes to seats” figures will be clearly in the Conservatives’ favour. Will that be evidence that the “bias” has disappeared (or is even in their favour). Of course not.
Anyway the claims for “bias” are based on the theory based on UNS that the Conservatives need a 10% lead for an outright majority whereas Labour only need to be about level. Confusing cause and effect. That is what tends to happen to opposition parties when they are extremely unpopular (and the effect is made much worse because almost all LibDem seats are in areas of Conservative strength). It is quite likely IMO that after the next election the situation will look somewhat more even.
The body language between US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Brown/Darling at yesterday’s G20 Conference looked decidedly cool if not extremely frosty. Geithner walked away from Darling after the group photo like he had something better to do than exchange pleasantries a NewLab politician.
34-Was looking at some threads back from May 2005 and one starts with the Independent (presumably in the pre-seal cub era) and a front page headline, along the lines of are we heading for a crash. Doubtless the current one is worse than was being predicted then.
On the other hand, that Labourite prophet of doom, “Lord” Jay was constantly bleating about an upcoming recession on the BBC.
In 1994/95 or so. Guess it did not suit the BBC to have him on in 2004/05 excoriating NuLabour.
30 I think the last quarter’s GDP figures, and the failure of the Conservatives to implode over Europe, have knocked the stuffing out of Labour. They’ve now used up every shot in their locker.
30 MM Well put.
Personally I’m skeptical that any politician really understands the economy well enough to be allowed to tinker with it. Certainly Brown is demonstrating that they can do substantial damage when they do. They generally don’t even understand accountancy, or at least the regulators they set up don’t, hence the banks trouble in the first place.
Brown and Darling perhaps really do believe that they are world leaders in the fight against the recession, but virtually noone else has ever done so and the deluded band that did is thinning as they show their intellectual shallowness by suggesting obviously daft plans. Meanwhile, here at home, us poor UK taxpayers will have to spend the rest of our working lives paying off the debts that this government has built up. The recession may end next quarter, and then again it may not - either way we have an economy that I personally feel is structurally ill suited to climb the growth ladder. The only real hope is that the city booms, as as an economy we have many of our eggs in that basket - of course Browns new tax would entirely prevent that!
Interesting parallel situation developing over in Sweden, where the centre-right PM Fredrik Reinfeldt is the most popular of the party leaders by a long way: approx double as popular as the political party which he leads. Whereas his rival for the post of PM at the Swedish GE next year, Mona Sahlin, the leader of the Social Democrats (by far the largest party in Sweden) is in 4th place, significantly less popular than the political party which she leads.
PM Fredrik (current President of the EU) is even more popular than his erstwhile pal PM Dave; and Moaning Mona, despite her record-low ratings, is still nowhere near as unpopular as her colleague Grim Gordon.
Reinfeldts 54% approval rating is the highest he has ever had since becoming party leader, and the highest rating a centre-right leader has ever had. (Previous Social Democrat PM Göran Persson holds the record: 61% approval in March 2002.)
Synovate/Dagens Nyheter
Approval ratings of leaders of the 7 parliamentary parties (note: the Greens have two leaders)
Fieldwork: 3-5 Nov 09
Sample size: 1012
Fredrik Reinfeldt (Moderate Party, centre-right govt. coalition) 54% (+2)
Maria Wetterstrand (Green, red-green opposition coalition) 38% (+9)
Maud Olofsson (Centre Party, centre-right govt. coalition) 32% (-1)
Mona Sahlin (Social Democrats, red-green opposition coalition) 31% (+1)
Jan Björklund (Liberals, centre-right govt. coalition) 25% (-3)
Göran Hägglund (Christian Democrats, centre-right govt. coalition) 23% (+1)
Peter Eriksson (Green, red-green opposition coalition) 22% (n/c)
Lars Ohly (Left Party, red-green opposition coalition) 20% (-2)
English language report: http://www.thelocal.se/23128/20091107/
http://www.dn.se/polopoly_fs/1.989808.1257551548!dnsynowetterstrand.swf
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/valet2010/fortroendet-okar-stort-for-mp-topp-1.989809
http://www.temo.se/Templates/Page____448.aspx
So, Gordon Brown is not the only European left-wing party leader dragging his own party down; but no other party leader is quite such a spectacular failure as Gordon.
I think it is highly unlikely that Q4 will be negative, the problem is that it probably needs to be strongly positive to avoid a negative Q1 with the withdrawal of the VAT cut and other measures. I think the reversion of VAT to 17.5% will hit hard upon consumer spending.
39 - the irony about the growth figures is that Darling never predicted growth in the 3rd quarter in the budget (his future years’ predictions may have been “optimistic” but the prediction about when growth would return wasn’t particularly so)
It was only other countries’ good performance which led to Brown ramping up the UK position which produced a perception that we were doing even worse than expected (although that may of course now be proven in Q4). Of course the “best placed” rhetoric was always destined for ridicule.
43, Darling predicted growth in Q3 in the PBR< didn’t he?
40 - “Meanwhile, here at home, us poor UK taxpayers will have to spend the rest of our working lives paying off the debts that this government has built up.”
Perhaps the Govt could offer a deal. Pay off your share of the debts now in return for no income taxation in the future
Agree with emerging view as people think through the reaction to Lisbon treaty. Cameron played this spot on and this was the point he became serious and looked like someone who would run a Govt for everyone and prioritise the issues. At the same time he crafted a plan that when combined with what is a more eurosceptic party, not a less eurosceptic one, could have a real impact over time. The fact is Lisbon is now law and the vast majority of people are not interested in the EU and would be very unlikely to vote to leave it when pushed. Therefore a much cleverer approach is needed which Cameron has proven he understands.
re 23 - does this mean that it is Tory policy to abolish the previously understood requirement that constituencies respect county boundaries? Where could I read a precise statement of Tory policy?
42 - Can any economist offer a cut out and keep guide to the calculation of quarterly GDP figures?
How does strong growth in Q4 improve the chances of growth in 2010 Q1? Surely it is the opposite? The more that is spent in Q4 the less available to be spent in Q1. Isn’t there an argument that some countries have bounced back quicker partly because they fell further in the first place?
The Scottish Labour Party is getting itself in a right fankle, yet again. Today’s Observer reports that “leaked documents show the [UK] government is planning drastic cuts for its flagship plan to train a new generation of apprentices”.
http://calumcashley.blogspot.com/2009/11/me-spot-on-yet-again.html
On dearie, dearie me. Poor old John Park MSP; what a shame.
26. Alex
Who accused councils of being rational ? They are made up of lots of little departments all trying to meet their own objectives. After all it’s not their money they’re spending.
27 John L. is right. It’s like the “savings paradox” - in recession it is not good for everyone to stop spending and pay down debt, but it is extremely rational behaviour for individuals to do so.
43. Darling predicted us being back to growth by June. You are talking about his revised, revised and revised again estimates.
The question over Gordn Brown’s failed tax proposal is ‘why was Gordon Brown at St Andrews at all”. It was a Finance Ministers meeting, a working session. Tony Blair would never have turned up to give a speech at a similar event (Gordon would have been incandescent with rage if he did).
He turned up for party political advantage, trying to squeeze something further from “Saviour of the World”, trying to impress the domestic media. No Russian, Brazilian, Chinese, Indian or US finance minister wanted to sit through an oration and call to arms, they wanted to negotiate deals, finalise positions on reforms and Copenhagen.
Especially from a man whose policies have failed and whose term of office is drawing to an end, whose sudden conversion to a tax rejected by his own Treasury weeks ago looked like opportunism not strategy. Brown should have left it to Darling, to do the job of Chair, rather than try to push the UK agenda so blatantly.
But that’s Gordon isn’t it. Can’t delegate, doesn’t treat his Cabinet as peers but as subordinates, can’t deal with the job of PM so reverts to de facto Chancellor.
22 I agree. In Oxford, public sector organisations (health, education, roads) are spending on construction projects as if there will be no tomorrow…perhaps for them there won’t come next spring.
44 - yes but he revised downwards in the budget.
51, saw the Festival of Remembrance. Brown looked bored out of his mind. The ARRSE thread (http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=137384/postdays=0/postorder=asc/start=20.html) noticed it also.
Saw Cameron there too, not sure if Clegg was present.
William Hill - Glasgow NE by-election
Labour 1/3
SNP 9/4
John Smeaton - Jury Team 50/1
Conservatives 100/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Greens 100/1
Mikey Hughes - Independent 100/1
Solidarity 100/1
Scottish Senior Citizens 200/1
Scottish Socialist Party 200/1
BNP 300/1
On thread - no; the idea that a more respected Brown could have got the Tobin Tax adopted is fanciful. The global financial establishment and especially the US would always be bitterly opposed.
For me what this debacle shows is Brown’s lack of even the most basic political common sense. Despite being in a hole, he simply can’t stop digging - blundering into a totally unnecessary humiliation in a desperate attempt to grab some headlines.
Shadsy being a wee bit mean today? Ladbrokes have Labour at 3/10 (SNP at 9/4).
(Paddy Power: Lab 1/3)
Morning all.
Tim = Comical Ali claiming the Iraqui army would repel the allies just as American tanks could be seen speeding down the main road behind him.
At last the world is realising that Gordon Brown knows bugger all about economics and understands even less. We relied on an academic short-term journalist without even experience running a school tuck shop to run the 4th biggest economy in the world and he ran it into the ground. Enough said!
Stuart - all the money backing the SNP on Betfair has virtually gone.
47 Jon - no it’s not tory policy to abolish MP county boundaries - but it is one of the things that stops equal sized constituencies. I’m not a tory member or direct influencer. But if I were them it is the way I would do it. I know that tory decision makers read this blog - and it’s a very effective way of giving them policy ideas!
Completely O/T Is Brown going to have enough courage to turn up at the cenotaph today - I reckon it’s evens he gets booed again - see the scarfe cartoon in the times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/article6907997.ece
60. Goupillon
Yepp. There was a big move from SNP to Lab on both Betfair and SPIN yesterday.
Current Betfair prices:
Lab 1.07
SNP 3.3
Any other 160
I don’t think the significance is that no world leader agrees but that he thought to make a splash with this idea in the first place.
Like Major’s ‘cones hotline’ you’d hope the Prime Minister had more important things to worry about than how vindictive he can be to banks and bankers. He keeps making himself look trivial and gimmicky. How can such an experienced politician be so bad at politics?
59. Easterross - “At last the world is realising that Gordon Brown knows bugger all about economics and understands even less.”
Indeed.
But what would one expect from someone whose only “proper” job was as an (ahem) “politics” teacher at Glasgow Technical College? Oh yeah, and he also once got a wee summer job as an OU tutor.
Gordie Broon - Intellectual Titan of Our Age
52 Ted - spot on. Gordon’s crass attempts at influencing the political agenda must be causing insomnia in those charged with running Labour’s upcoming election campaign. He is a loose cannon - but then he is propelled by the moral certainty of always being right, everyone else always being wrong…
On Marr, Kate Hoey is wearing a poppy slightly larger than a dinner plate…
59/64
Unlike Cameron and Osborne who’ve had lots of experience running lots of things. Oh Yes! there was errr, well Dave used to be in charge of the stationary cupboard at Carlton Tele for instance. Osborne he errr ummm errr, well what he doesn’t know about wallpaper isn’t worth knowing.
Wonder why?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6908148.ece?
BTW some discussion about whether the election date will be influenced by the need to have the Budget.
Did we have a pre-budget report this year? I know they cancelled the Comprehensive spending review, but how do they justify the former? Or did i miss it?
51. Ted. I didn’t realise Gordon Brown was at St Andrews. Was that for the Birmingham v Man City match? As it was a draw that’s two more groups of supporters who can blame “Jonah” for their disappointment.
Brown’s even being criticised on X-factor. Quite a demonstration as to how low his standing has now sunk.
“Gordon Brown, Five More Years” = Tory Landslide.
Does anyone think John Edwards could actually win X-factor? I’ve not been watching the programme so I can’t assess the act or the public mood.
63. Roger - “How can such an experienced politician be so bad at politics?”
But you see Roger, Broon is not a “politician”. His background is as the boss of a mafia outfit known as the “Scottish” (sic) Labour Party.
Broon behaves as you would expect any mafia boss to behave. But just don’t expect him to empathise with the ordinary voters he is busy screwing; nor to show any “feel” for public mood, including the international mood. He is an empathy-free zone.
Major’s ‘cones hotline’ was a triumph of common sense compared to Broon’s gaffe-a-thon.
68, the PBR is coming up before Christmas, I think. Cancelling it would be almost like cancelling the Budget.
69, I don’t watch X Factor, but my brother’s quite into it and reckons that Jedward (as they’re apparently known) stand a decent chance, even though they’re talentless.
O/T I think Prof. Nutt’s halo is starting to slip.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/academics-attack-professor-nutt-over-incorrect-statements-on-drugs-1817012.html
The picture of Brown in the Telegraph article flagged my Mike is a classic. What message is it trying to give?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6521548/Gordon-Brown-worldwide-snub-over-tax-plans.html
The other thing is that Brown has never been a politican of the people. He’s never done the campaigning and listening and the getting people on side thing which people like Blair, Cameron, and yes Major did.
He’s a party machine animal. Not a elction winning animal.
74, Christ. That deserves a health warning. Creepy bugger.
74 my=by
1. “US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was asked about the tax and insisted on showing what he called “due deference to his host” in Scotland.
So, he didn’t dismiss the idea outright but nor did he offer even a hint of support. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8348895.stm
————
Yes, the way the BBC has covered this is quite eye opening when it was possible to actually listen to Geithner on the other channel right then and there. The blatant and intentional omission of the full story is beyond excuse. Anyone that listened to the interview knows damn well Geithner totally rejected the idea. The public should not be funding this despicable operation.
I really wanted to watch coverage of the front pages on the BBC last night but couldnt. I wonder how they avoided/dismissed all the negative press.
63/70 - He’s very good at organisational/factional politics. Very bad at electoral politics (there was a period when he was thought to be good, but that was just the “stopped watch” syndrome of the coincidental occurrence of his approach briefly seeming to match the public mood (and when he was seen as the only alternative to Blair).
As Stuart says, his advancement has never depended on electoral appeal, which explains why he has advanced so far.
63 Roger, Tabloid Tacticism has been a major feature since 1997. Brown though doesn’t have Blair’s ability to say “whoops” and move on, he can’t admit failure or mistakes. If something works once he’ll try & try again to repeat it (so the 5 Tests for the Euro have morphed into 5 Tests for Karzai), trying to get the same praise again.
Every Budget speech ended with a clever wheeze and last year we had the Queen’s Speech trumped by his clever announcement on mortgages (which hasn’t actually done anything). Worked in the past so he’s doomed to try again and again with less and less effect.
69. stjohn - ““Gordon Brown, Five More Years” = Tory Landslide.”
Quite!
Call me a sad politics geek (you’d be right), but the last few nights I have actually been dreaming of the slogan “Gordon Brown, Five More Years”. I kid you not.
I just cannot believe PM Dave’s luck. Do the Labour Party fully appreciate the immensity of the mistake they made in 2007? Do the Labour Party fully appreciate the immensity of the crushing defeat they will suffer if Broon leads them into the next GE?
Alex Salmond and Rod Crosby can forget all talk of a Hung Parliament unless Broon gets the boot pronto.
The story’s been overplayed, especially by the Telegraph, but even by those who like the idea - Brown gave a nod to the Tobin idea in a list of possible options, and journalists seized on it and rushed around asking other countries’ ministers what they thought. As the BBC report says, it’s been a core demand from left-wing campaigners for ages, so it will help with Guardian voters even to give it airtime, but it’s clearly not going to happen any time soon. That said, Geithner’s preferred idea is not all that different - he favours a tax on financial institutions to pay for any future bailout that might be needed, but afterwards.
The ‘welfare dependency’ story has presumably always been true - it simply reflects the fact that there are more people on low incomes in Labour seats than Tory seats. I’m sure that mid-Sussex doesn’t have many people on Income Support, but so what?
William Hill - Will There Be A Hung Parliament In The Next UK General Election?
No 2/7
Yes 5/2
That gap would shrink to near nothing if Broon gets the boot.
26. “That doesn’t make any sense. If Council’s are bracing themselves for big funding cuts they will be trying to spend as little as possible to build up the reserves.
You don’t plan for having no income in the future by spending more money now.”
You are clearly not a politician.
69
Does anyone think John Edwards could actually win X-factor? I’ve not been watching the programme so I can’t assess the act or the public mood.
Well you’ll not make PM, its John and Edward you toss pot, there are two of them,(gawd ‘elp us) Known as Jedward, they are brothers, or spawn of the devil.
Xfactor, (knowledge of) will be at the top of any questions for a future PM
Oh! GB hates ‘em, Cameron likes.
82. Desperate stuff Nick - ‘it’s all the fault of the press’.
And the last sentence of your first paragraph is more or less pure ignorance.
85 - I wondered what the references to Jedward on here recently were all about!
82
Nick, you are trying to suggest its not that important by underplaying it. . It is important in the sense that from what I understand, no discussion had been had before Brown announced it. It looks like Darling didnt know.
You should read Ted’s comment at 52
74. MTF
He learnt that “moué” in Cape Cod.
If you haven’t yet read it, please read this terrific piece by Ann Treneman in yesterday’s Times. A great piece of writing.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6906924.ece
Pure vote seeking, that has backfired - he knows quite well that it won’t be accepted, but hey, it’s Gordon trying to save the world again.
87
Forget economics, politics, world affairs etc. gotta get ‘yer Xfactor right.
PH in fine fettle.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1226044/PETER-HITCHENS-Revealed-fakery-David-Cameron–tough-talker-took-cowards-way-out.html
Because Tories from Cameron down are relatives and devotees of the ugly cult ‘Thatcher’ it’s easy to miss the shortcomings of Labour.
Ted’s post at 52 should make Labour supporters squirm. How embarrassing. Our Labour leader trampling over his cabinet looking for headlines like a dog looking for a lamppost. I think it’s time for Nick P and co to have a word because as things are going Brown is going to let the Tories in on a bye.
Time for a chorus of this methinks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDMJHYKrHNA
86 - Indeed.
Astonishing that Nick apparently can’t see the difference between paying for the cost of bailing out the system over the last year, and actively providing for the bailing out of failed institutions in the future thereby incentivising them to take stupid risks and repeat the whole thing all over again. Not to mention the suggestion that a “tax on financial institutions” is remotely equivalent to “tax on financial transactions” - one is clearly a subset of the other.
92 - Oh Roger, you might be a decent commentator if you removed the blinkers.
92 - It’s surely not that easy! You’d have to be blind and deaf at least!
How funny to see Brown shown up by his international collegues. His “saving the world” cr@p may have worked for a domestic audiance, but the world leaders and finance ministers know exactly that the guy’s nothing more than a crank. Fortunately everyone at home knows it to now.
74. MTF
I note that Gordon Brown was wearing an English poppy yesterday during his trip to Fife. Should a Fife MP not be supporting the Earl Haig Fund when in Scotland? Or are Scottish service personnel less important?
75. slackbladder - “He’s never done the campaigning and listening and the getting people on side thing which people like Blair, Cameron, and yes Major did.”
Spot on!
As time goes on, John Major looks less like the massive failure he appeared in 94-97. History is going to be far kinder to John than we would have expected.
The reverse is true for Gordon Brown. Who would have guessed the depths he would plummet once he reached No.10?
Gordon Brown’s monumental incompetence as PM makes John Major look good in comparison.
92. I’m not aware anyone is missing the ’shortcomings of Labour’ Roger. Thread after thread on this site is about them, and the popular press is also stuffed with such analysis.
Indeed, even partisan observers who once looked forward to the Brown regime as some kind of new dawn have realised that he and his party are hopeless and clapped-out.
98
are Scotland’s dead somehow worth more than everyone else’s ?
GIN, you touch on an interesting point there. There is an electorally significant body of opinion out there that thinks Brown has done a decent job in getting Britain through this economic mess. By overplaying his hand - and getting embarrassing headlines - he risks those people saying to themselves “hang on - perhaps he wasn’t as effective as we thought he was…”.
There were no new votes for Gordon in courting the G20. There was the potential to lose some. He’s managed to fulfil that potential…
Gordon’s humiliations are only just beginning.
102 - Somehow with Brown you look at the range of options, find the worst one and know that somehow he will find a means of inventing a new option that is even worse than the worst option that was obviously available previously.
Now they’ve got a thumbs down from McDoom, the terrible twins will probably win X Factor.
Nick Palmer, there is a sour tone to your post this morning: your attempt to blame the media for Brown’s Latest Booboo is just churlish. Even Roger recognises what a twonk we have for a prime minister.
However I understand this must be a tough time for you: it’s 20 years to the week since the Berlin Wall came down, and you must be feeling, inwardly, very sad about that moment, when history betrayed your cause.
We will excuse you if you feel unable to comment for a few days, even a few months, as you mourn what might have been.
102 - I think Darling has done a decent job in the circumstances (ie. having Brown as PM).
I wouldn’t be surprised if George Osborne walks into the Treasury on the first day to find officials saying “well this is what we (and Darling) wanted to do…
I am vaguely reassured that if one can get past Brown’s spinning, the Treasury and the civil service are actually off pursuing a somewhat different policy on reigning in Govt spending. Not enough at this stage because of the need to avoid it being too obvious, but enough stories are emerging that it is going on.
101. Alanbrooke, you obviously miss the point completely and make a strange assumption. The point is that it shows how inept Brown is, anybody with a political brain when in his home constituency in Scotland would have ensured that he was attired properly. Unfortunately for us it is not just the little things that Gordon gets wrong.
106 - As we know Sean, the person saddest about the end of the Berlin Wall was Margeret Thatcher, who while squealing at Kinnock.
“He’s a socialist – a crypto-communist!”
Was desperately trying to preserve the Warsaw pact.
Nick Palmer fantasist: The story’s been overplayed.
Well, unlike you I watched and listened to the US Treasury Secretary and the head of the IMF both blow the Brown bolllocks right out of the water.
There was no consideration for the host from Geithner. It was simply ‘we cannot support this’ and he made it plain it was dangerous nonsense too.
Brown made this country look silly allowing such a silly man to be its PM.
I hope you saw the interview with the hapless Timms after Geithner’s. It was painfully clear that he had no idea that Brown was going to do this, yes he knew about the Tobin idea, but not about the Brown Suicide mission and he was at a loss.
What a way to run a government at any time let alone in a desperate struggle as we are in at the moment.
You are, Nick Palmer, simply adding to the mountain of evidence that Labour simply cannot tell it straight. Spin, smear, and far too often, outright lies.
I gave you a short list of the Labour lies the other night. Shall we make a fuller one?
109 - Oh good grief what a load of rubbish.
re 109. That’s just about the silliest comment you’ve ever made here Tim - and there’s some strong competition.
You live in strange world. Get out more. Find some friends.
111 - We must wonder whether it was the fall in the Berlin Wall pushed Thatcher over the edge
PARIS (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher warned France’s ambassador months before German’s 1990 reunification of a domineering Chancellor Helmut Kohl who “sees himself as the master,” diplomatic notes revealed Thursday.
In secret archives unveiled to commemorate the fall of the Berlin Wall on Nov 9., 1989, French diplomats describe an “obsessed” and “bitter” Thatcher’s fear of a united Germany and her proposal to join forces with Russia to contain the threat.
“Kohl is capable of anything,” France’s ambassador to Britain, Luc de La Barre de Nanteuil, quoted Thatcher as telling him during a dinner with French businessmen at his residence in London on March 13, 1990
108
Really ?
Isn’t he the PM of the UK so entitled to wear a national ( it’s not english )poppy on behalf of all the nations. Not everyone who currently lives in Scotland is Scottish. This is just a cheap jibe by the SNP and frankly an issue which just shows a deeper disrespect for the dead.
I see my favourite, ‘Conservative’ has issued a call to arms.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/comment/Gerald-Warner-It-is-our.5805069.jp?
Brings a lump to the throat.
tim quoting the French about Thatcher is rather like asking the Devil to give Moses a reference.
82 Nick Palmer MP at 09:26
“I’m sure that mid-Sussex doesn’t have many people on Income Support, but so what?”
Your wrong, Nick. Mid-Sussex has a great many people whose income solely consistes of benefits of one kind or another and the number has been steadily growing for the past decade, even in the “good” times when local employers were complaining of skill and labour shortages.
So what? Well, you might want to think back to the promises of your party’s leaders back in 1997. You will, I am sure, remember those speches about the price of failure and the waste of lives. Then you might want to think about what has actually happened.
The failure to improve our education system and the growth of the number of households solely dependent on taxpayer handouts are two things for which I cannot forgive Labour.
102. Anybody that still thinks Browns done well dealing with this recession is clearly beyond help.
113 - Well you have certainly plunged over the edge and are hurtling downwards in a coyote-like manner.
MalcolmG, I bought a Scottish poppy yesterday, though I am English. Should I be condemned? And if not, why should Gordon Brown be condemned for wearing an English poppy?
119. Whats Tim whittering on about now?
tim, nice try, but lol. Dear me no.
The people who are surely saddest at the fall of communism are, I suspect, the communists?
And what a lot of them there are in your party; Peter Mandelson, Alan Milburn, Stephen Byers, Jack Straw, Charles Clarke, Bob Ainsworth, Nick Palmer of this parish, Alistair Darling, etc etc
This must be a difficult time for them all, the anniversary of the destruction of their dream. I wonder how many of them cried in sadness and anger the day the Wall actually fell.
118. I notice the BBC are running a HYS on ‘Is economic recovery on its way?’. Looks like they had to hastily change one directly on the transaction tax after Brown’s latest humiliation.
120 - I’ve got an East Renfrewshire poppy in support of those who will die in the East Renfrewshire Councils invasion of Libya to bring back Megrahi.
A Scottish Poppy is an occupying power’s betrayal of the dead of East Renfrewshire.
70 “His background is as the boss of a mafia outfit known as the “Scottish” (sic) Labour Party.”
That does seem to explain it, in seats like Glasgow NE which they’ve held for 70 odd years there’s obviously no real competition from the other parties at all and therefore it becomes all about internal warfare between themselves. Hence him being so good at that kind of politics and so crap at the campaigning bit.
102 “There is an electorally significant body of opinion out there that thinks Brown has done a decent job in getting Britain through this economic mess.”
Most of the working class segment of that opinion could be knocked off if the Tories/LDs banged on about McDoom selling the gold for fourpence hapenny. It might not be that big a deal in the overall scheme of things but as a very easy to grasp symbol it’s perfect.
111,112. Tim’s essential point that Thatcher was against the reunification of Germany is quite correct. I had just that conversation at the Brandenburg Gate with a German pop star(!!) called Guido while shooting a commercial for Ferrero!
Actually to be fair to tim he has a sort-of point, though it’s not the one he’s trying to make.
Thatcher was worried in the late 80s about the reunification of Germany. But then, so was most of Europe, given what Germany had done to most of Europe in the preceding century. Francois Mitterand was probably even warier than Thatcher, the Poles were frit, the Dutch very unsure, etc. As the records show.
And who can blame them? As it turned out, a reunited Germany locked itself tighter into the EU, and thank God for that. But anyone woo lived through the second world war, and the Blitz, would have been, at the time, understandably anxious about German nationalism reasserting itself.
This anxiety is a very long way from being pro Warsaw Pact, and it is utterly different from actually BEING A COMMUNIST, like so many Labour leaders. As tim well knows.
126 - Yes but it was a valid opinion to hold at that point. I seem to remember from her memoirs that she wasn’t against reunification but against speedy reunification and from the point of view of the imbalance between East and West Germany and the burden it would place on the Western half of Germany.
Don’t know if we have done this, amongst recent Chequers guests again included Kate Garraway…and I assume Derek “the disgrace” Draper, plus the usual list of other celebrities.
126. Sorry that should be Guildo(Horn). He and they couldn’t understand why Thatcher thought internal German politics were any of her concern. As so often I just shugged and said she ain’t nuthin’ to do with me!!
129 (correction) sorry I think it is just a repeat of the list out in June, that chief Tory ramper Henry Macrory has just repeated on this tw@tter (went to look to see if any polls were or are in the offing as he normally can’t keep his gob shut).
Morning all.
MTF, that pix of Brown you linked to @74 is vile (warning next time, please) However, that on a poster with “Gordon Brown, five more years” and shoved through every letterbox in the country could pay dividends for Tories…and psychiatrists alike.
BTW, What’s Tim wittering on about this morning, talk about sooo last century?
128 - The answer is that it went a hell of a lot smoother than many would have predicted. It’s like imagining the ridicule anti-Iraq campaigners would have been open to if Iraq was all sweetness and light.
Rightly or wrongly, Thatcher admired Gorbachev, and thought he would succeed in liberalising and democratising the Warsaw Pact countries. Like George Bush Snr, she feared that the sudden collapse of the entire alliance would unleash chaos. Fortunately, that didn’t (on the whole) happen. Like Mitterand, and a lot of people of that generation, she feared the impact of a reunified Germany, although Mitterand came to accept reunification as inevitable, before she did.
Hindsight is a fantastic judge. I’d certainly never expected to see Communism collapse overnight, almost bloodlessly, and I doubt if many other people did prior to 1989.
126. “Tim’s essential point that Thatcher was against the reunification of Germany is quite correct.”
Maybe so Roger but why was that? Was it because Thatcher “Was desperately trying to preserve the Warsaw pact” as tim says?
No that is utter rubbish. Many in the west thought that German reunification had the potential to set off numerous territorial disputes in eastern Europe, as many of the countries there had borders that were a product of WWII and earlier conflicts. There was also the important point of borders changing between the Warsaw Pact and NATO armed forces.
So although German domination of the European Union was a concern the far bigger issue was the concern that reunification would set the dominoes falling. The west wanted orderly change not a chaotic collapse of Communism, we didn’t get that but some how it still worked out well. It is remarkable how relatively peaceful the change turned out to be.
Thatcher and many many others justifiably worried about where events would lead, but she did not support Communism or the Warsaw Pact, and Thatcher did more than any Labour politician ever has to defeat them.
134. It sounds like standard Foreign Office style thinking of the last two hundred years, doesn’t it?
Rather reminiscent of the endless and futile attempts to prop up the Ottoman Empire by encouraging it to ‘reform’, mostly for fear of what might rush into the vacuum should the Ottoman regime collapse.
70 One would expect the typical Mafia boss to be a good deal more effective than Brown has shown himself to be, though. Running a crime family takes a good deal of shrewdness and courage, I would have thought.
134 - If you put ideology at the heart of your foreign policy then you can end up getting into some very nasty and futile scrapes.
If you put realpolitik at the heart of your foreign policy then you can end up making some enormous blunders.
Thatcher used a bit of a mixture of the two and, on the whole, got away with it. When she got realpolitik wrong (Berlin Wall) she got away with it. When she went with ideology (Falklands) she got away with it.
127/135 - That is precisely the point I was makng.
Which other world leader tried to preserve the Berlin Wall and the Warsaw Pact more eagerly than Thatcher?
Probably not Gorbachev.
Two months before the fall of the Berlin Wall, Margaret Thatcher told President Gorbachev that neither Britain nor Western Europe wanted the reunification of Germany and made clear that she wanted the Soviet leader to do what he could to stop it.
In an extraordinary frank meeting with Mr Gorbachev in Moscow in 1989 — never before fully reported — Mrs Thatcher said the destabilisation of Eastern Europe and the breakdown of the Warsaw Pact were also not in the West’s interests. She noted the huge changes happening across Eastern Europe, but she insisted that the West would not push for its decommunisation. Nor would it do anything to risk the security of the Soviet Union.
136 - Indeed. Unsurprisingly the foreign office position will almost always win unless a Government is led by someone who sees themselves with messianic qualities with religious fervour who knows better…
Haven’t we been around this Thatcher/Germany discussion before? And the one conclussion we came to was essentially the points made by SeanT.
Why does Tim keep banging on about the same things all the time? Mrs T’s attitude to German reunification is one of his hobby horse’s, along with William Hague, George Osborne, Mark Thatcher, Eton/Bullingdon, inheritance tax and David Camerons whisteria.
Tim can be very boring sometimes.
120. Antifrank, Bully for you , if you had read my comment even you would have seen that I was not comparing what poppy anybody should or should not buy, I leave that kind of stuff to the likes of you and alanbrooke. My point was that your buddy missed the whole point of the previous post where the poster was pointing out how useless and inept Brown is in electioneering and in general.
How you and your buddy can make this into me suggesting “my poppy” is better than “your poppy” only confirms shows the paranoia shown on here by many English posters.
139 No, you’re making rather a different point to the rather more nuanced arguments that others here are advancing.
Government officials are being given time off for Christmas shopping trips, days at the races, and to compete in Whitehall jam-making and cake-baking competitions – all subsidised by the taxpayer.
The events are being offered by the Civil Service Sports Council with the help of a £1.4million-a-year grant from Government funds.
The organisation is also investing millions of pounds building luxury health clubs on former civil service sports grounds – only to charge the public up to £70 a month for membership.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226050/Civil-servants-given-time-shopping-trips-cake-baking-competitions.html#ixzz0WGRd56RE
I didn’t realise that Scotland had a different kind of plastic poppy.
Of course, the Welsh have gone one better. There is botanical imprimatur for the Welsh poppy (Meconopsis cambrica).
It is yellow-petalled and quite different from the scarlet-petalled Common poppy. It is native to, and widespread in, Wales & England, though absent from Scotland I think.
(It is also Plaid Cymru’s party logo).
Read an article yesterday by Garton-Ash on the Polish broadcaster site and he talks of the fears that even someone like him, deeply involved with Solidarity, had about what would happen when the pressure was released with Soviet hegemony gone. We saw in Yugoslavia how it could have happened.
The pre-war nationalist, neo fascists didn’t re-appear in sufficient numbers, the new generation of communists in charge were not soaked in mindset of their predecessors the pre-WWII and WWII generation.
The risks were huge not only in central/eastern Europe but in Russia itself and leaders don’t like high risk potentially destabilising change. Thatcher is quite honest herself about her fears, which were shared in France and I would think in most Western Europe capitals. NATO allies were desperate to ensure the Soviet Union didn’t fragment into opposing factions, so pushed hard to keep a de facto Red Army & Navy across the disintegrating Soviet Union, ensuring that nuclear weapons were under single control.
It was all too easy to see the Ukrainians getting into conflict with Russians, the Baltics were seething, the Stans & Caucuses potentially open to radicalisation. In Europe Hungarian minorities in Rumania, Yugoslavia and Czechslovakia were a potential flashpoint as were other minorities in all the Warsaw Pact states.
Through error and luck it didn’t happen, except in the Caucuses and Yugoslavia. The East Germans got rid of Honecker, East German Border Guards on the Wall didn’t fire but gave in and opened the gates, the old guard in Moscow waited too long to stage their counter-coup, Yeltsin wasn’t yet the sot he became and seized his opportunity. We had in Welesa in Poland, Pozsgay (the Communist leader) in Hungary, Havel in Czechoslovakia great men who managed the change while controlling what could have been vengeful emotions.
It means we can look back and celebrate 1989 mainly without villans, massacres or shame but as a joyous uprising of the people, taking back their sovereignty peacefully. In Rumania communal revenge seemed satisfied with the killing of the Ceacescus which seemed enough to hold back mass disorder.
142 - Er, i think you are interpreting Stuart’s comment at 98 in a way which isn’t really justified by what he wrote. Nothing about Brown’s lack of electoral awareness - just an implication that Brown didn’t care saw Scottish service personnel as “less important”.
That someone should even think to pick up on it is, well, picky in the extreme.
Secret £165bn loan keeping Lloyds alive
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP is being kept afloat with £165 billion of loans and guarantees from the Bank of England and other central banks around the world, The Sunday Times can reveal.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6907889.ece
Now remind me, Lloyds was a good solid boring bank before Gordo the Great got involved and persuaded his mate to take on Halifax….
139. yadda yadda yadda. We get your point, as you have now made it for the third or fourth time. But Thatcher’s anxiety still places her several moral miles above anyone who was ACTUALLY A COMMUNUST, dunnit?
Can we please not have the usual tim procedure here, i.e. you keep repeating your argument over and over again, while ignoring everyone else’s counter-arguments, until the entire thread decays into tedious bickering.
It’s just a yawn.
*yawns*
142
I am in no way a fan of Brown, but really the SNP are getting more ludicrous in their criticisms. Why didn’t you go the whole hog and attack him for not wearing a kilt or handing out tins of shortbread ? Are you saying the Scottish electorate is so unsophisticated that they will only elect politicians who tattoo themselves tartan ?
This could get very interesting
“Shamed MPs who challenge demands for the repayment of expenses could be put on ‘trial’ by a judge to justify their refusal, under new plans being considered…
..The next round of letters will contain the big demands - the heavy artillery of the Legg process, including the hefty mortgage claims. There will be a lot of squealing.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226035/Judge-grill-rebel-MPs-defy-Legg-expenses.html
Has anyone received a payout from William Hill over Tony McNulty repaying back his expenses?
To steer the argument on a more fruitful course, it might be interesting if some of the lefties on here told us how they actually felt when the Berlin Wall came down.
Like it or not, that event spelt the end of Marxism and communism as practicable politics. It was the termination of the true socialist dream.
So I’m guessing you lefties must have had mixed feelings, if you are honest. Yes of course you were happy to see the bonded peoples of the communist bloc set free, but didn’t you also experience a frisson of sadness at what was happening, politically and philosophically?
I have never read an honest account, by a lefty, of the difficult emotions they must have experienced 20 years ago. Perhaps someone on here could take that brave and enlightening step.
It is nice to see the younger royals taking part in the Remembrance Sunday service.
148 Am I missing the point, but wouldn’t it just be more sensible to wind up banks like Lloyds HBOS and Nat West/RBS in an orderly fashion?
149. Sean T, Tim reminds me of those automated computer chat programs where no matter what you ask or say, it responds with irrelevant bollocks without ever getting bored
150. You were the one making it a competition between English and Scottish soldiers deaths not me. I was merely pointing out that it showed how poor Brown was at electioneering etc.
151 - Surely introducing a judicial element to the process will result in most of the money not being paid back? Outside of things like claiming for Mortgage capital payments, Legg’s demands are based on a moral argument, with arbitrary retrospectively determined amounts for “reasonability”.
I can’t really see that a high court judge will side with Legg on this, especially in cases where MPs have specifically discussed the validity of their claims with the Fees office in advance of claiming. Even more so if the validity was established in advance of the actual expense being incurred.
Did Gordon forget to bow his head at the cenotaph as he laid his wreath?
8 The budget. Why does that matter? They can say what they like and it will all be reversed if they are beaten anyway.
O/T - what’s the convention on tie colours at the cenotaph?
Certainly German reunification had the potential to open a Pandora’s Box of territorial issues. The Poles were nervous because Stalin’s redrawing of their boundaries in 1945 had given them a lot of traditional German land like Silesia and West Prussia as “compensation” for the land the Soviets gained under Molotov-Ribbentrop. I think Kohl had to sign a declaration renouncing all claim over those lands and dropping all claims for compensation, now you know why Klaus wanted that optout over the Sudetenland, something which wasn’t very popular in Germany at the time.
The whole situation could have spun out of control very easily and it’s lucky that sane heads managed the situation. Thatcher’s concern was that rapid reunification would antagonize hardliners in the USSR and undermine Gorbachev, and in that sense she was probably right!
156, 157 malcomG = McTim
159. Correct he didn’t bow his head.
164 - I’m sure he just forgot but oh deary me.
160 - If Darling produces a fantasy budget again, the markets will not like it, and expect a run on sterling. The perfect conditions for Labour to launch their re-election campaign
166 - “This run on the pound which started in America…”
153 - Most people I knew on the far left were Trots who had had more fights with Stalinists than those on the right and centre so they welcomed the fall of the wall wholeheartedly.
The Tankies such as Galloway and Benn were thrown into confusion, hence their love affairs with increasingly fringe genocidal dictators and ethnic cleansers.
But Thatcher/Ridley and Benn/Galloway shared a love of the stability and ideological anchoring that the Wall gave them.
Define “orderly”. It’s one thing to wind up a relatively small bank like Northern Rock which only has a small number of core business functions.
Banks of the size of RBS/Lloyds have so many relationships in so many different areas that the consequences of “winding up” are unforeseeable. Look what happened when they let Lehmann go - it almost brought down the world financial system.
Not to mention the fact that if Lloyds and RBS were to disappear from the UK high street there would only be two banks of any serious size left in the UK. Hardly a recipe for a competitive banking system.
160 - Don’t think so. If a budget was passed into law then any post-election “emergency budget” would probably not alter most of what was in it.
166 Only if the polls shifted dramatically in Labour’s favour. City traders can read opinion polls. The best thing for Labour is to begin a partial recovery in the Locals by going on May 6th. It may well be that they are out of power for some time as well. A month may not sound a lot to throw away, but it is a lot if you think may have years out of power in front of you.
168 – Tim, you studiously ignore divulging your own opinions on the Berlin wall, choosing instead to waffle on about other’s so called opinions.
Did you misunderstand the question or just incapable of giving an honest answer?
98 : A pretty pathetic criticism. Trying to score points based on what type of poppy someone puts on is extremely distasteful.
I wonder which type you are wearing Stuart - after all isn’t it the case that you don’t actually live in Scotland?
Of course there were plenty of people who opposed the reunification of Germany. This was not the same as welcoming or striving to obtain the fall of Communism.
One notable for example was the German Nobel prize winning author Günter Grass. Like Tahtcher and many others he eblieved that a single reunified Germany would have the same domineering mentality as its former incarnations.
171 - Very true. One of the scenarios in my head, that leads to a Labour wipeout is a rogue poll, during the election campaign showing Labour might just become the largest overall party.
A nice demolition of the transaction tax:
Financial Transaction Taxes Would Cause Stock Market Crash
Congress is discussing a horrible idea, putting a “transaction tax” on every stock or option purchase or sale. Please consider AFL-CIO, Dems push new Wall Street tax.
08/30/09
The nation’s largest labor union and some allied Democrats are pushing a new tax that would hit big investment firms such as Goldman Sachs reaping billions of dollars in profits while the rest of the economy sputters.
The AFL-CIO, one of the Democratic Party’s most powerful allies, would like to assess a small tax — about a tenth of a percent — on every stock transaction.
Small and medium-sized investors would hardly notice such a tax, but major trading firms, such as Goldman, which reported $3.44 billion in profits during the second quarter of 2009, may see this as a significant threat to their profits.
“It would have two benefits, raise a lot of revenue and discourage speculative financial activity,” said Thea Lee, policy director at the AFL-CIO.
“The big disadvantage of most taxes is that they discourage some really productive activity,” she said. “This would discourage numerous financial transactions. People flip their assets several times in an hour or a day. They make money but does it really add to the productive base of the United States?”
Lee said that taxing every stock transaction a tenth of a percent could raise between $50 billion and $100 billion per year, which could be used to pay for infrastructure projects and other spending priorities. She said the tax could be applied nationwide or internationally.
In Congress, Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), chairman of the Highways and Transit Transportation Subcommittee, has seized on the idea as a way to help pay for a new massive surface transportation reauthorization bill, estimated to cost $450 billion over six years.
Instead of taxing all stock transactions, as the AFL-CIO has contemplated, DeFazio wants to focus on oil-based derivatives.
At the end of July, shortly before the House broke for the August recess, DeFazio introduced legislation that would impose a 0.2 percent transaction tax on crude oil futures contracts. The legislation would tax the options for oil futures (in other words, the premium paid to have the option to buy a futures contract) at 0.5 percent.
Potential Financial-Transaction Tax of 0.25% on proceeds and purchases
Earlier this year Money Blogs was discussing Potential Financial-Transaction Tax of 0.25% on proceeds and purchases
Monday 01/19/2009
Details of a new, proposed tax — a financial-transactions tax on the sale or transfer of financial assets — have come to light, and it’s not good news for traders. This new tax sounds small in percentage terms — it’s only 0.25 percent of proceeds and purchases as proposed — but it can add up to large sums for day traders and other hyperactive traders and force them to exit this business activity. Many active traders have sales proceeds of $10 million or more per year; some have well over $100 million. A 0.25-percent financial-transaction tax on $10 million of proceeds and $10 million in purchases equals a $50,000-tax per year, even if they breakeven or lose money.
This new financial-transaction tax was proposed to apply to stock, options, futures, and perhaps many other types of financial instruments too. Passage would spell disaster for the trading and brokerage industries, including collateral service providers. Our firm is dedicated to online traders and hedge funds, so we would also be impacted if this tax is passed. We need to take action to see that this doesn’t happen.
How did this tax proposal come to fruition?
A “financial-transaction tax” reappeared as a tax proposal during the first round of TARP legislation negotiated and passed in the fall of 2008. But that proposal failed. The proposal for this new tax was buried in the fine print of the TARP bill and it did not receive much public attention at the time; the much bigger TARP issues overshadowed it.
Thankfully, this proposal did not survive final negotiations in Congress, as has been the case many times in the past. Can we count on Congress to keep putting this fire out over the next several years, considering that that media may turn negative toward traders and Wall Street in general?
Britain and U.S. Clash at G-20 on Tax to Insure Against Crises
Unfortunately this ridiculous idea has surfaced again. Please consider Britain and U.S. Clash at G-20 on Tax to Insure Against Crises.
November 7, 2009
The United States and Britain voiced disagreement Saturday over a proposal that would impose a new tax on financial transactions to support future bank rescues.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain, leading a meeting here of finance ministers from the Group of 20 rich and developing countries, said such a tax on banks should be considered as a way to take the burden off taxpayers during periods of financial crisis. His comments pre-empted the International Monetary Fund, which is set to present a range of options next spring to ensure financial stability.
But the proposal was met with little enthusiasm by the United States Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, who told Sky News in an interview that he would not support a tax on everyday financial transactions. Later he seemed to soften his position, saying it would be up to the I.M.F. to present a range of possible measures.
“We want to make sure that we don’t put the taxpayer in a position of having to absorb the costs of a crisis in the future,” Mr. Geithner said after the Sky News interview. “I’m sure the I.M.F. will come up with some proposals.”
The Russian finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, also said he was skeptical of such a tax. Similar fees had been proposed by Germany and France but rejected by Mr. Brown’s government in the past as too difficult to manage. But Mr. Brown is now suggesting “an insurance fee to reflect systemic risk or a resolution fund or contingent capital arrangements or a global financial transaction levy.”
Supporters of a tax had argued that it would reduce the volatility of markets; opponents said it would be too complex to enact across borders and could create huge imbalances. Mr. Brown said any such tax would have to be applied universally.
Tax Would Increase Volatility And Reduce Liquidity
I am aware of several large hedge funds that would move their operations overseas if this measure passed. If I am aware of some, I am sure there are hundreds more.
Think of the implications on traders thinking about stepping into a plunging market to buy. With this transaction tax who would want to step in? It sure won’t be the LTBH clowns because they would already be in.
Right now shorts and short-term traders are the only ones who might step into plunging markets. The former to cover shorts, the latter to take a chance. Both provide much needed liquidity. The traders could count on a stop loss nearby where they can exit if wrong.
If this bill were to pass, there will be no one willing to step into plunging markets. Liquidity would immediately dry up.
Proposed as a way to soak the rich while decreasing volatility, this bill would soak all stock holders and increase volatility. The markets will crash if this bill passes. Of course Congress is doing so many other stupid things, the market is likely to crash anyway.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Just watching the Remembrance Sunday service, I’m thinking to myself thank f*** this will be the last major occasion when we have to suffer the embarrasment of our nation being “led” by Gordo!
173
on the other hand Grass is notoriously unreliable. He kept quiet about his service in the SS Frundsburg Armoured Division for nearly 50 years.
177
Not really. Everyone knew that Grass was an unwilling conscript into the SS as opposed to the Wermacht and given his left wing views it is hardly surprising that he was - as he fully admitted - ashamed of his past. Also since it was entirely possible his past would never have been revealed - it had been unknown for 60 years - it was to his credit that he decided to reveal it himself.
177 CiF has an opinion piece by an East German who still mourns the loss of the GDR. There was a high price to pay, though once Communism had gone the survival of a planned economy separate state seems unlikely.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/08/1989-berlin-wall
This is a dangerous period for the Conservatives. Once it’s assumed they’re definitely going to win, a lot of people will become annoyed by what may seem like arrogance and complacency.
175. Did you type all that out by hand?
I was thinking the other day how cool it would be if computers could take large chunks of text from one place and put it in another. You might call it the “duplicate and glue in” function or something like that. But then I thought it would be open to abuse and used as a substitute for thought and effort.
Then I had anther idea. If the text was already on the internet, might it be possible to make it available on another website without entirely duplicating it? You could call this something really wacky like a “superchain” or something.
The Screaming Eagles November 8th, 2009 at 11:03 am “Has anyone received a payout from William Hill over Tony McNulty repaying back his expenses?”
Not I and it was 10 days ago.
“McNulty to be Ordered to Pay Back Housing Expenses” 5/1.
153. Thinking back I seem to recall even moderate Labour supporters of my acquaintance being slightly unhappy at the fall of communism.
Throughout the 1980s, they had often pointed to the supposed lack of unemployment and inflation in the eastern block and contrasted this unfavourably with the UK, while of course regretting all the murder and oppression. Though their dislike of the latter was notably less vehement than that for the nastiness of regimes like apartheid South Africa, Chile, Guatemala etc.
There’s no doubt many Labour supporters were still emotionally attached to the ‘ideals’ of the eastern bloc right up to its dissolution.
Somewhat off topic - though we are talking about illusory utopias - tomorrow morning I fly to Shangri-la. Literally: Shangri-la, or Xangielilla, on the border of Tibet and Yunnan.
God and Lucky Air willing, I may be the first person on pb to post from paradise. Unless you count Baccara bar in Bangkok.
179
I understood he volunteered, as a conscript he could have joined a normal army unit. As for his honesty, legacy more likely, but he does like to shock and give surprises. His wartime experience will suddenly become more relevant to some of his books such as Katz und Maus.
184. My experience too. I had some very confused lefty friends when the Wall fell. They pretended to be as happy as everyone else, but the joy wasn’t there. It was almost grudging.
But they have never really fessed up to these mixed emotions. It might do them spiritual good to spill the beans now.
184 “Thinking back I seem to recall even moderate Labour supporters of my acquaintance being slightly unhappy at the fall of communism.”
That is generally true as it undercut the whole central planning argument but specific groups like Trots, Anarcho types and right-wing Labour were always anti-sov.
183 - Does anyone (especially OGH) know how we go about complaining to William Hill over the lack of payout?
179. Yes, 60 years too late to be punished for any war crimes he may have commited.
I am not saying that he actually committed any base actions; we will never know.
But he lied about his past, what more did he hide?
“When he reported for duty in Dresden, he found it was with the 10th SS Panzer Division Frundsberg. He said that under the sway of Nazi indoctrination he did not view the Waffen SS as something repulsive but as an elite force.”
Samuel Loewenberg in Berlin
The Guardian, Wednesday 16 August 2006
187. Part of it was a strange anti-Americanism - I can also remember some of the same people cheering on Soviet sports teams (always a useful litmus test).
This of course still lives on, too, hence the weird sympathy some present day lefties have for islamic fundamentalists, despite the latter’s vicious and medieval social outlook.
Not sure if this has been mentioned but Labour in secret plan to cut training budget.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/08/labour-spending-cuts-training-young
191. I have a leftie friend who gets genuinely angry about this part of Rocky IV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Keq7LzYoC0c
re 183. I was paid. Get onto customer services.
Looking for my corps in the Cenotaph march past, the R.A.M.C.
Not seen them yet!
193 - Does his mummy still change his nappy?
187 - The one thing I’ve always found with lefties, is there nauseating hypicrosy, when someone holds extreme left views, they are called idealists. Someone who might have held extreme right views (not racist views) will forever be called an extremist.
Compare and contrast these two people
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/444519.stm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6468094/David-Miliband-defiant-over-neo-Nazi-claims-about-Tory-ally.html
Battlin Bob on Politics Show in a few minutes…
196. Nah, he’s just a bit of a nutter. Lovely bloke so long as you keep away from politics.
185.
Also posting from Bangkok.
Just thought I’d say that!
195. I must have missed them typing on PB. Oh well!
197 - I’ve compared and contrasted and can’t seem to find a political group set up by Labour and led by the former Soviet Spy.
The Conservative Party seems to have formed a political group led by a former Neo Nazi.
At least they now seem to realise their mistake.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6908148.ece?
185 - Baccara bar, which part of Bangkok is that in? Not in Patpong I hope
187 - SeanT, if you have so many lefty friends, how come you’ve only just discovered the difference between Trotskists and Stalinists?
202 - Once again Tim, you miss the point.
TSE, you are wrong, tim doesn’t miss the point, he avoids the point. It is obvious when he does so and it is very sad that he either thinks nobody notices or doesn’t care that people do notice.
C4 doing another “docu-drama”, this time on Thatcher vs the Queen.
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article6907868.ece?
207 (cont) “Often blurring the line between fact and fiction, it shows their dealings as a series of confrontations.”
How many Labour figures Tim were in the pay of the KGB? This was at the height of the cold war.
Just wondering with all these C4 things they do, kind of wondering how they get away with them. Do they make it expressly clear that this is fiction based on fact? cos otherwise, I’m surprised somebody hasn’t sued them.
205
but its a deliberate missing of the point, thats why its not worth responding to. Scroll past, simples.
Any left liberal (and liberal of any wing) was elated at the fall of communism, as was any Trot. There might have been a few of the old guard who remembered the pre-war situation but that generation was dying out.
I recall many attempts to try and paint the left as being pro-communist but it had as much basis in reality as any similar attempt to paint conservatives as pro-fascist (i.e. a minimal basis at best).
210 - The problem is that if you sue you give them more publicity.
Looks like Wheeler might be getting the cheque book out for UKIP,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/6524173/Tories-warn-David-Cameron-he-risks-losing-votes-to-UKIP-over-referendum-U-turn.html
205 note where the story emanates from too. McMillan Scott.
213 - Yes, but the flip-side, they start pushing it more and more i.e the hang Gary Glitter one that they have made.
GORDON brown makes another gaff! Gordon forgot to bow his head at the cenotaph as he laid his wreath,
it looked somewhat insulting especially with his head tilted up if anything
186
No he volunteered to join the Wermacht. It was only after he arrived for basic training that he was informed he was being transfered into the Waffen SS.
Tim - your refusal to acknowledge that the Baltic states might have a different view of the Hitler - Stalin confrontation is breath-taking. All part of your desire to misinterpret history to make partisan points.
I’ve close friends who are of Latvian and Estonian descent and they think the Labour opportunism on this point stinks.
202 - I don’t know about foreign journalists but it makes perfect sense to “control” access to the UK media. It is probably fair to say that it is very easy for foreign politicians to be “naive” when dealing with the UK media, who will generally be conducting the interviews with an agenda in mind. The situation made worse if not communicating in their home language.
I imagine it would be very easy for a UK journalist to get lots of juicy quotes from one of these MEPs even if they didn’t say anything more extreme than the views of, say, Anne Widdecombe.
219 - Don’t forget the people who are of Polish descent too. They think Labour stinks too.
214 - I love this idea that you can simply add the UKIP vote to the Conservative one in 2005 and magically get 30 more seats. I think the only time you can make a case for UKIP denial of seat is where the gap between the Conservative and the winner is half or less than half the UKIP vote and even then I think the exercise is somewhat silly.
219 - Most Latvians I’ve ever met acknowledge that a small number of their fellow countrymen were willing participants in the H—-st and their celebration is wrong.
Indeed that has been the Latvian Govt position since 2000.
But the leader of the group is not Latvian and the Tories are clearly nervous about him, surrounding him with minders.
222 - Oh, don’t get me wrong, I thought the article was utter rubbish by fly-a-Kite, but clearly Wheeler is pi$$ed. He gave a substantial amount to UKIP at Euros, while at the time claimed he would be backing Tories at GE. Doesn’t look likely now, instead he will be bank rolling UKIP again.
183 Re McNulty - I was paid too. I hassled them via their online help. Took a couple of days.
222 - and of course it makes a presumption that there are no votes to be lost in the other direction from adopting ludicrous and pointless policies like having referendums on things which can’t be changed.
Considering that most votes lost to UKIP will be in safer seats, it would probably take the loss of half a dozen votes or more to UKIP to compensate for one vote lost to Labour or the LibDems.
I think the Conservatives should have a vote on Lisbon just to make the critics look really stupid when it gets a turnout of maximum 25%.
224 - Yes but how many people outside of us in the anorak brigade have heard of this curmudgeonly codger with a sack-load of cash?
224 - Whatever happened to UKIP’s imminent bankruptcy?
222/224 - The question UKIP supporters will have to ask themselves, will they be able to cope with the fact, their votes have ensured 5 more years of Gordon Brown.
227 - That isn’t the point I was making, the comments from him and the other usual suspect are here nor there. Rather, UKIP have f all money at the moment, thus Wheeler’s money could at least ensure they fight most seats. He initially said he was only giving UKIP money for Euros, not GE, but I’m taking it that he will be now.
225 Sparky and others. It is a disgraceful state of affairs when you have to beg for your own money.
They put up novel markets with the idea that they are merely separating mugs from their money.When it turns out that they are the mugs they go into denial.
This dark side of bookmaking needs exposing.
tim, 223
219 - Most Latvians I’ve ever met acknowledge that a small number of their fellow countrymen were willing participants in the H—-st and their celebration is wrong.
Indeed that has been the Latvian Govt position since 2000.
Someone should tell the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, then:
http://www.mfa.gov.lv/en/latvia/History-of-Occupation/briefing-paper1/
http://www.am.gov.lv/en/latvia/history/legion/
and
http://www.am.gov.lv/en/latvia/history/legion-kalnins/
(separated due to fear of spamtrap)
Arhh, so that’s who it allegedly was….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226083/After-Derrieregate-new-Commons-sex-pest-row.html#ixzz0WGtroF3Z
232 – Sorry to say young Tim has credibility issues on that statement. Just how many Latvians, prepared to express such opinions, have visited him on the ‘farm’ ?
I have just returned from the Service of Commemoration in my local town. As someone for whom flippant is the normal default setting, I found it very moving.
Probably a thousand people gathering in the town square, as drizzle gave way to a patch of blue sky by 11 o’clock. Excited small children to people with sticks, or wheeled there in chairs. An amazing number of local worthies - mayor, aldermen, councillors, local MP, RAF base commander, airmen, old soldiers, scouts, guides, cadets, St John’s ambulence. Strings of campaign medals on the left breast; a single recent widow in black, a young woman, her husband’s medals on her right breast.
The church bells stopped. A community fell quiet. The air was heavy with that rare commodity today - respect for public service.
The last post.
The silence, punctuated just by a mother shushing a crying child; a muddy spaniel pup, scrabbling up nylon waterproof trousers; a wagtail flying over.
The Ode of Remembrance, read by an old boy with a chest full of medals and steel in his voice.
“We will remember them.”
* All: We will remember them. *
And then - with split second co-ordination - an awesome reminder of military power. Two Merlin helicopters from RAF Benson flew low up the street, set-square precise. Next week they will be in Afghanistan. All there hoping that their crews will not join the list of names read out. Every life lost since the First World War. The family names. Cousins, brothers, fathers and sons. The cadet, the Regimental Sergenat Major, the stoker, the Flying Officer. The BEM, the MC, the DFC and Bar.
And as the long list is read out, I catch my breath. Someone with my father’s name.
Our positions could have been exchanged. It might have been my father; it might have been me not there.
We will remember them.
234 (cont) Wasn’t he the MP, who made claims for work carried out by companies that didn’t seem to exist? Also wasn’t he sent to the “Star Chamber” for it? I take it he wasn’t punished.
Euan Blair the ticket tout…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226063/Euan-Blair-England-rugby-tickets-probe.html
238 - Would you buy a ticket of that man? He looks more dodgy than the usual mob that hang around outside all the major London venues on a nightly basis!
231 - I understand from Wm Hill’s online helpers that because it was placed over the phone, that caused some problem. Plus, I guess they had to get the guy who made the market to confirm the event had happened. I agree that their system needs improvement. It’s not right that only those who chase it get paid. Bit underhand really.
Guido has a great post about a crackers Lib Dem Cllr…
http://order-order.com/2009/11/08/libdem-councillor-demands-truth-about-hampshire-ufo-base/
241. “crackers Lib Dem Cllr”
Tautology?
242 - Maybe.
Afternoon - see tim’s talking about Latvians again
I’ve been out buying my 4th laptop in 3 yrs
I came down this morning and mine had developed some random and strange faults. I don’t even think it was cat related so that makes a change.
I’m now deliberating if I want to spend all day reinstalling software or wash cat litter trays…hmm…
On the plus side - it has Windows 7 which seems to be about 1000000000000000000 better than Vista.
“LibDem Councillor Demands Truth…”
http://order-order.com/
245
245 - He is up for re-election in 2011. Someone really should wander around his patch during the election dressed as an alien.
The Tories in government are set to become pariahs throughout the civilised world.
They have stupidly thrown in their lot with homophobes and anti-semites.It is little wonder that everyone here is cheering them on.
Wait and see what reception the Tories get in Washington.
Keep up your attacks,tim , and just be aware of where your detractors are coming from.
URW. One grandparent born in the UK,one in Lithuania and two in Latvia.
61 Thanks - I thought it was a bit odd. If you did that it would open up a massive can of worms in allowing almost unlimited scope for boundary reviews - but you are quite right it does make unequal representation inevitable.
212.”Any left liberal (and liberal of any wing) was elated at the fall of communism”
Not even remotely close to my experience.
248 - Have you been on the sauce, you make Tim sound reasoned!
“The Tories in government are set to become pariahs throughout the civilised world.”
“Wait and see what reception the Tories get in Washington.”
What like this, from a few weeks ago?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e20120a61332cf970b-800wi
The left cannot accept other peoples’ viewpoints. Only left wing views are listened to and if you disagree you are stigmatised as a racist or fascist.!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1222159/Nick-Griffin-Chaos-BBC-protesters-storm-Television-Centre-ahead-BNP-leaders-Question-Time-showdown.html
So who are the real fascists here?
251.I bet she washed her hands after contact.
251 - Hague’s tie is almost exactly the same colour as Hillary’s top and earrings. Spooky.
251 (cont) Now remind me. Who has to plead with the US for a meeting, to be told them can fit him in, but only for a walk and talk through the kitchens?
248
I wasn’t aware the Brown Blair Partnership was so widely acclaimed on the international stage.
I think the point about the east europeans is they want the other half of the story told - all the millions of their people killed by the c*mmunists - and the western lefties telling them to shut up about that are the same ones slagging them over the other half.
URW, you are taking a t#t of yourself again, with your statements above. Whoever wins the next election won’t be a world pariah, even Gordo.
156: “Tim reminds me of those automated computer chat programs where no matter what you ask or say, it responds with irrelevant bollocks without ever getting bored”
Bingo! Tim = Eliza!
* Hello
> How are you today.. What would you like to discuss?
* Eton
> Tell me more…
* In my youth there were troubling episodes……
> Come, come, elucidate your thoughts.
* Mark Thatcher haunts my dreams
> I’m not sure I understand you fully.
* He hangs over my existence
> Say, do you have any psychological problems?
Colour co-ordinated diplomacy.
258.I only said that the Tories would be pariahs in the *civilised* world.
Seems to me that the righties on here are determined to justify the slaughter of Latvian (and other Eastern European Jews) by their fellow citizens could be justified as a protest against Comrade Stalin…….”We are all Nazis now !”
111 - its tim, what did you expect, honesty???
261
this would be the same civilised world which treats the Israeli Government as a pariah ?
Small world.
As I was preparing lunch today I turned into radio 3 for private passions (a more erudite version of desert island disks). The celebrity today was our Vince who included a recording from his local choral society. I guess that he has their votes now…
James Burdett November 8th, 2009 at 1:08 pm “He is up for re-election in 2011. Someone really should wander around his patch during the election dressed as an alien.”
Under Labour’s legislation we may not have the right to mock his beliefs. Will the voters have the right to sack him?
Could his local Lib Dem MP take him in hand and give him a coffee table view of how the voters will perceive him?
One service tim has done is that I now know a hell of a lot more about how the inhabitants of those countries occupied by Germany & the Soviet Union behaved and what happened to the various nationalities from 1938 through to 1951. I had a reasonable understanding of the Holocaust but hadn’t really ever realised just how many were deported or killed by the Soviets from small groups such the Ingarian Finns through the the hundreds of thousands of Hungarians and to the German populations of Central & Eastern Europe.
There remains a particular horror about the Holocaust, in its use of mass production genocide, that makes it stand alone but its only now that we are seeing what happened behind the Soviet lines and then Iron Curtain particularly in the period 1940 -51.
Soviet c*mmunists murdered tens of millions of innocent people. That should never happen again either but lefties want to keep it as covered up as possible.
263 Alanbroke. It is indeed true that the Liberal Democrats, the Islamo-fascists and sections of Old Labour treat Israel as a pariah.
The point about the Tories is that they made a tragic blunder with their realignment in Europe.
Nobody is claiming that the Tories are institutionally anti-Semitic.
266
I suspect after Hitler, Stalin was the next major murderer of jews. The main difference being whereas Hitler targetted the Jews, with Stalin they were caught up in the general massacre.
They may go back to the EPP anyway once the dust has settled.
269 He certainly did target Jews. The “Doctor’s plot” in 1952 was just the most notorious example of it.
268
so why would they be boycotted ?
EU govts won’t
US won’t
China, India, Japan, Aus, NZ, Canada won’t
Even the Israelis won’t.
271
Stalin was certainly anti-semitic but he didn’t target jews in the same way as Hitler.
“Not even remotely close to my experience.”
Tells us all we need to know about your lack of wider experience in different communities.
O/T: Football WOW stat of the season so far:
“[Stoke City] are comfortably positioned in the the top half of the table and would be sat level with Manchester United in second place had they not thrown away a lead in three matches this season.”
Delighted to see another founder club in Burnley doing so well.
269
Hitler initially tried to deport the jews to their new homeland commonly called Israel. Many died in the camps due to starvation. I am sure if the Stalin was responsible for 60 million deaths, I would say at 6 million of them must have been jews.
PS The millipedes grandfather was involved with evil Mr stalin’s regime. Does that sound worrying? New Labour = New Communist?
It is perhaps indicative of Labour’s current political position that the dominant line on the Conservatives and the ECR is Miliband’s “getting in bed with homophobes and anti-semites line”. This is very much a line designed to motivate the core vote.
If they were involved in a serious fight for the key swing voters who could maintain them in government then they would be much stronger in emphasising the original line of the Conservatives reducing the UK’s influence by removing themselves from the EPP and therefore from having influence over one of the major Parliamentary groupings.
274 Nope.
It’s like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Me and my little crew of rentamob dodgies at the time were always off rampaging over Thatch or Reagan or whatever but when i mentioned doing something similar over Afg all i got was blank looks.
Eventually i came to the conclusion that a lot of the motivation for that kind of leftie stuff was based on America being some kind of global “daddy” authority figure.
278 - Your lack of understanding as to what the term liberal represents, means you are never going to get your head around this.
Live in your own alternative universe if you want but don’t try and twist the English language.
I’m sure I heard Ainsworth refer to the Army having learnt to fight “isometric warfare”. Is there any accent that makes “asymmetric” sound like “isometric”? Or is this another example of one of our esteemed ministers not having mastered their specialist subject (following so closely on the heels of the foreign secretary’s relocation of Brazil’s capital)?
Or did I just mishear him?
Saw the Politics Show today. Tremendously unimpressed with Quentin Jumpship, who reckons our soldiers have all the equipment they need and great treatment after leaving the services.
Also, ARRSE reckons Brown didn’t bother bowing his head at the Cenotaph. http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=137423.html
[Apologies if already posted]
276 - Where was this “Israel” to where Hitler tried to deport them all?
New thread by the way.
279 “but don’t try and twist the English language.”
Your original comment was “Any left liberal (and liberal of any wing)” not just “liberal”.
282
Hitler helped create the state of Israel so he could deport them, but the British prevented the deportations, hence Hitler’s ‘Final Solution’.
284 - Derr, liberal is the qualifier, the wing doesn’t matter.
Liberal = hatred of authoritarianism. Latin ‘liberalis’ - of, or pertaining to, freedom.
You aren’t one of those crazies who think that freedom is only a right wing thing are you?
I think i’m just going to repeat my point that a lot of lefties and pseudo-liberals are rebelling against some kind of daddy figure.
287 - so *now* it’s ‘pseudo’.
Sigh…
No, it was always pseudo.
289 - Row back, row back, row back…..
Have a nice time in your own little alternative world.
285 - the State of Israel created in 1947?
290. And you.
286 - “liberal” can mean different things in different contexts. It has a very different meaning in America, for example.
293 - I’m presuming that MrJones is British given his interest in UK politics. If he’s American maybe he could let us know.
We get such a lot of American politics over here, that it is hardly surprising that people lapse into their political jargon occasionally.
294 Obama must be the luckiest man ever. That NY result and news that Crist may be targetted just means the GOP is trying to throw away automatic wins next year.
296 - LOL Hoffman lost? Did ConservativeHome do a big analysis…?
297 He did. Now of course a very destructive precedent has been set for the GOP. Upset with the result of a primary? Run against the nominee and hand victory to the Democrats by default. The Democrats paid a very heavy price with Lieberman for sticking with the official nominee but the long term wisdom of that call is clear.
#16 and the home office immigration policy:
Money quote: “Officials agreed to fast-track 337,000 applications with minimal checks.”
This comes as confirmation of the Andrew Neather article. Apparently, immigration officials couldn’t use lack of documents as grounds to delay an application, following ministerial direction. Hughes and/or Blunkett tried to cover this up. Labour’s last hope/current is that “we’ve made mistakes” on immigration.
This is a bigger story than expenses IMO.
Gordon Brown didn’t have the decency to bow his head at the Remembrance Service at the Cenotaph today, so what do you expect. He is not popular at home or abroad.
Gordon Brown didn’t have the decency to bow his head at the Remembrance Service at the Cenotaph today, so what do you expect. He is not popular at home or abroad.
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