Is this a man who could cross sides?
November 11th, 2009
What would be the impact of a defection?
One of the early signs of what was to come from Brown Central was the ferocious campaign to undermine and eventually secure the sacking of Frank Field at the start of the Labour government. He had been brought in by Blair to “think the unthinkable” about welfare reform until the Brownies got there way.
This is recounted at length in Tom Bower’s brilliant biography on Brown and the man who is now PM does not come out well.
So what are we to make of this morning’s piece in the Guardian by Field on Cameron’s speech yesterday in which, according to Field, “declares war on Labour’s reason for existence.”
He goes on: “If you read the speech without knowing who has given it, most people would conclude that it was a speech by Tony Blair, who had carefully blended in the best of Labour’s leftwing thinking. That is the size of the challenge we now face from David Cameron.
On one track he takes the argument back to the advent of new liberalism. The idea that people should simply be free is not for him. The conditions for freedom have to be created. And then the new Tory state “must actively help people to take advantage of this new freedom”.
Wibbler on the previous thread wonders whether Field is about to defect”,
I’m not so sure - and would Cameron welcome it? What message would it send to the traditional Tory right-wingers who only stick with their leader because he looks like an election winner?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
*whistles*
Lets hope so!
Repost FPT
This may not get anywhere, but it’s being pushed by Frank Field, who has the ability to make things happen in the House of Commons, and so it would be unwise to ignore it: Labour MPs are pushing for a vote on the Afghan war.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/nov/11/labour-mps-afghanistan-vote
Frank Field won’t defect. He is a fully signed-up member, as he has been for many years, of the Frank Field party.
Also, the language is very revealing. Would a potential defector write: “That is the size of the challenge we now face from David Cameron”? Who is this “we” if not Labour?
Nope…he’s better over as ‘the reasonable’ Labour MP.
Labours biggest mistake was to chop Frank - now who’s idea was that…
labour cannot have an afghan vote with brown or anyone who supported it in charge as it comes across as hypocritical.
perhaps the libs had better do it first to show they have a policy.
I don’t think he’ll defect, but it is possible he might serve in some advisory capacity. His expertise and insight into the problems in the way the welfare state has developed would certainly be very valuable.
7. The rotting Fish !
5 - He talks about Cameron, not the Tories in general. If there is going to be a defection I would bet on it happenning after the election, not before.
7 - Chop him after he spent a long time coming up with a lot of interesting ideas for Welfare Reform. If only….
I think a position would be found for Field within a Cameron Government, probably as special adviser on social welfare or some such.
Can’t see a defection on the horizon though.
6. Agreed. Much better to have him inside the Labour tent p1ssing all over Gordon.
“I’m not so sure - and would Cameron welcome it? What message would it send to the traditional Tory right-wingers who only stick with their leader because he looks like an election winner?”
If you read the Telegraph letter page after Frank Field has had an article published you would see that there is almost universal support for his views and many calls for him to join the Tories. I think he’d be warmly welcomed by the Tories.
Frank Field on his own is worth more than the entire Labour cabinet put together.
Perhaps Cameron might follow the American Precedent, where in recent times, the President has appointed a member of the opposing party into his cabinet to show Bipartisanship
Doubt it, but Field does see the threat of a Blondite Cameron to Labour, and to the Thatcherite wing of the Tory Party.
SNP now 6s for Glasgow NE on betfair..
I doubt Field would defect this close to an election. Unless a safe seat could be found for him he’d be out of a job in May (I doubt his personal vote is high enough to carry Birkenhead for the Tories)
16. Ashdown, to deal with Afghanistan, would be another person I’d be pleased to see in government.
20 - Totally ageee with that.
OT
Tory Election Poster
A picture of a rotting fish with Browns head on it, held aloft a bin, by a man with fingers pinching his nose. And the slogan
“Urgh, 5 More years of this …. No thanks”
I’d love to see Frank Field in a Conservative Cabinet actually being allowed to think the unthinkable on welfare.
On other matters, after reading Quinten Letts’s account of Postie Al’s cowardly behaviour yesterday towards the mother of Gary Mckinnion any last vestiges of doubt that this chancer is completely unsuited to being Prime Minister has been completely blown out of the water.
fpt 153- Coldstone, you talk about Ruperts secret police. It is the government that has opposition MP’s arrested under anti-terror legislation for lesse majeste.
353- you make the Sun sound like the Tory version of the Mirror.
On thread, I personally would welcome Frank Field, he is a dignified and respected member of Parliament. I also think that he would hold Birkenhead as a Conservative MP. I couldn’t speak for anyone else though. My apologies to Andrew Gilbert (Conservative candidate for Birkenhead).
I have been surprised that there have been no defections so far actually, Labour MP’s just seem to be doing the chicken run instead.
How big is the nursery rebellion?
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/11/how-big-is-the-nursery-rebellion/
17. Well, this Thatcherite is a big admirer of Field, and I would be happy to see him cross the floor - as, I suspect, would very many Tories of all shades of blue.
However you are right. Isn’t going to happen. This is Field taking revenge on the Brownite Labour party which treated him so shoddily. Shoddily - and stupidly.
Imagine how much better off we would be as a country, if some of Field’s unthinkable ideas had been applied rather than dismissed.
Frank Field will never defect. He would see it as letting down his constituents in Birkenhead.
Besides I’d far prefer him to stay in Labour. He keeps Labour on their toes and forces them to think.
That’s very useful.
I imagine that right wing Conservatives would be quite happy with a Field defection.
I once had lunch with him at a Unionist conference he was speaking at, and found we agreed on an awful lot.
23. Surely not the mother that Sarah Brown shed tears over ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197385/Sarah-Browns-tears-Gary-McKinnon.html
I’m a right-wing Tory and would be happy to have Field on board. I’d have thought it would have happened by now if it was going to.
24- btw I don’t think that he will defect, he has shown no sign of doing so. However if he is planning to do so, one reason he may have left it so long could have been that he was planning to have a tilt at the speakership and that no Labour MP’s would vote for a man who had defected from them.
9. Seconded.
20. Seconded.
24 I’d have thought the likeliest candidates for (attempted) defection would be people like Sion Simon, Chris Bryant, and Ben Bradshaw.
29. Does lovely Sarah habe shares in Kleenex?
33 - I’d love to see them try, and Cameron saying no thanks.
33- eurgh, no thanks. If Sion Simon joins, I’m leaving. I don’t know which party I’d join, but I can barely stand to be in the same continent as it, let alone the same party.
He would be Labour’s Quentin Davies and I’m sure the lefties
would be as glad to see the back of him as the tories were to see the back of Quentin
33. Surely Cam wouldn’t be willing to take any of those non entities?
I’ve always wondered if Purnell might be tempted to cross the floor?
Why are there so few Lab>Con defections as against Con>Lab? Is it because Labour MPs and members have a much more emotional attachment to the party, rather than a rational one? If they leave Labour they are leaving a comfortable home for somthing a bit scary, so stay close to mum?
I read the Field article when it was linked in the earlier thread and my instant reaction was very much “Well, he isn’t going to defect then”.
I would not be at all surprised if he joined the Tory Govt in some capacity post the election, and I suspect a deal may already have been done on that between Field and Cameron.
No PMQs today??
34. She’s also devestated at the news that UKGold are not showing any more Citizen Smith repeats
http://tiny.cc/wolfie
Lets have him on board. Frank has been to my sons school twice to speak to politics students… He was fantastic, I met him their earlier this year.
Ideologically, Frank Field has already crossed the floor, but I doubt that his personal integrity would allow him to join the Conservatives.
He seems to be in the ‘Keith Joseph’ mould and will probably finish in the Labour wilderness.
This right-wing type would welcome Frank Field onto a side that may actually implement (some of?) his very good ideas. As SeanT said at 26, this’d be a better country if Brown hadn’t sabotaged his plans a decade ago.
I can’t see him defecting exactly though as others say i coulld see him as a GOAT afterwards.
For a certain “type” of Labour/ex-Labour/Tory the broken society stuff is in the same category as crime, immigration, europe etc so given the Cameroons are way too soft for them in those other areas the broken society has to make up the difference. Field’s good on all that so praise from him helps.
I also think praise from Field helps increase the “wait and see” index among those who are still Labour.
40.
PMQs at 3 Today !
FF won’t defect, he’s a labour man at heart. His disillusionment comes from his treatment* at the hands of Brown, then being forced to watch the Brown car crash, over a period of 12 years. FF knew before most what a disaster Brown is.
*I will never forget, when FF stood up in the Commons to accept the 10p compromise, the smirking from Gordon, who didn’t even have the courtesy to accept FF’s compromise.
I’ll see if I can find the clip.
38 I’ve always thought that it would be extremely stylish for a party leader to reveal that X had attempted to defect, but he wasn’t wanted.
Oddly enough, the BNP did that at local council level, when the Sandwell councillor who’d pimped his mentally ill wife over the internet offered to join them.
You must know you have no future in politics when even the BNP turn you down.
40. PMQs at 3:00pm today I believe
“He [Field] keeps Labour on their toes and forces them to think.”
Don’t be absurd. Lefties can’t think for themselves. Like all religions, independent thought is highly discouraged.
TGOHF. Power to the people !!! GBH was pretty darn good as well.
I’ve heard some Labourites refer to him as “their Bercow”.
They miss the point: Field has consistency and integrity and suffers from neither self-obsessed or the need to radiate an air pomposity wherever he goes.
Whereas; John Bercow..
I think a defection is highly unlikely from Field - Hoey is a different question. Field would see himself having a role in reviving Labour’s sense of purpose in opposition - he is not a right winger in the traditional sense, nor really a conservative.
39 I think it was because Labour were in power and it was a chance for the power hungry to sieze a few shreds of kudos.
51- I’m beginning to catch up with some of these interweb acronyms, but TGOHF?
29 What an utterly pointless waste of time for Sarah Brown to ‘weep’ for the McKinnons. Surely her energies would have been better spent in trying to get her husband to block this extradition in the first place. If he had the balls, and wasn’t so keen on sucking up to his chums Obama and George W, this would have been dealt with ages ago.
Incidentally, re Lettergate, I reckon Labour are in danger of creating a backlash to the backlash (a backbacklashlash?). It is commonly perceived that the Sun went over the top, and Brown has gained a modicum of pity from his mauling.
But this stuff from Mandelson saying it is all some great conspiracy by Rupert and the Tories, plus the grotesque bollocks from the Daily Mirror today - helping to tear this family apart further - is counterproductive and possibly dangerous.
It reminds everyone why they hated Brown and Labour in the first place, because of the lies and spin and smears. But then again maybe Labour want this to get worse: because then Brown might be forced to depart.
As things stand, with the story drawing to a close, its the Tories who have benefited while Labour and the Sun have squabbled: because Brown is still in place, damaged and shop-soiled, and evoking contemptuous pity.
What I want to see is Quentin Davies defecting back to the Tories.
What larks, Pip, what larks….
53 “he is not a right winger in the traditional sense, nor really a conservative.”
He’s seen Chavistan develop and wants it reversed (imo).
Today they publish a reply from a senior BBC editor who admits that they will now be clearer in informing the public what the TPA actually is.
The editor says: “I have asked staff to avoid reporting stories which are generated solely by the Taxpayers’ Alliance and, where we do quote them, that we supply some context as to who they are.”
http://www.gofourth.co.uk/tpa-update
The Uncle of the Soldier in the Sun case has just been on Radio 5 “devastated” at the Suns coverage, and claiming that Brown letter was personal and well meant.
Who is the editor of the Sun who made this decision.
Or who was he?
33. Do you think Cameron would offer Sion Simon a chance to sleep with his wife as an inducement?
56. See also
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-200143/Browns-tears-joy-son-born.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1174533/Sarah-Brown-sheds-tear-1m-lost-souls-emotional-tour-Auschwitz.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/sarah-browns-lasagne-offensive-1732749.html
http://www.amazon.com/My-Christmas-Tree-Hung-Tears/dp/B00138IYQU
My Christmas Tree Is Hung With Tears by Sarah Brown
55 “I’m beginning to catch up with some of these interweb acronyms, but TGOHF?”
i think it’s an acronym of a poster’s name: the ghost of harry flashman.
60: Yet any leftie think-tank gets on through.
59 - That’s not unusual in Labour (or other) circles. Dislike of chavs isn’t a particularly conservative or right wing trait.
Tom Wise jailed for two years.
50. He makes them uncomfortable though.
It is much more difficult for Labour to dismiss dissenting opinion when it also comes from within their own ranks.
I’ve just put £50 on Labour in Glasgow NE on my Ladbrokes account, I only got 5/1. I probably could have got better odds earlier but I don’t have enough cash to tie it up for long periods of time.
Bob at 55.See post at 29.
FPT - 118 Easterross
Thank you for your Scottish predictions. These are very helpful, especially for those of us whose betting compasses becomes erratic when taken North of The Border.
My general impression is that Labour is holding on well in Scotland and that this could put a big brake on the Tory rush to a landslide. Indeed, as Wee Stuart Dickson intimated, those posters who have so enjoyed mocking the lovely Rod Crosby and his ‘absurd’ notions of a Hung Parliament may just be clenching their buttock muscles a little.
But I digress.
Why don’t you do a thread piece along the lines of The Super Six but purely for Scottish Westminster seats? Perhaps Stuart could help you.
I’m sure Mike would appreciate it, as would all punters who come to this Site principally for betting purposes.
Thanks
PtP
62
A chance to ’sleep wid da fishes’ maybe…
64/70- reeto, ta
Don’t they have any real criminals to catch?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226486/Police-report-pregnant-woman-social-services-half-decorated-home.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6520720/Police-secretly-follow-mother-after-hearing-her-reprimand-children.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226688/Grandfather-arrested-dawn-held-police-cell-SIX-hours-using-single-swear-word-council-official.html
72. “N-n-no, NO, I *understand*.. because I’m joost lioke you.
Yeah, that’s right. My name’s Sion - and I’m joost like YOU.”
PoliticsHome polling on lettergate favourable for Brown
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/the_backlash_voters_defend_gordon_brown_on_jacqui_janes_dispute.html
66 “Dislike of chavs isn’t a particularly conservative or right wing trait.”
It’s not about disliking Chavs it’s about disliking Chavistan.
marcia (of this parish) is reporting “a late swing” in Glasgow, “but too late to change the result. If there is a low turnout then that could be to the SNP’s advantage.”
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/11/seconds-out-in-glasgow-north-east.html?showComment=1257944020889#c70562420265687083
61 - I hope the BBC are exploiting a grieving relative, surely that would make them as bad as The Sun. Or, should the media to report these things, when individuals come forward?
to report -> be allowed to report
74
Low-hanging fruit - it’s always easier.
Besides, some of those real criminals can be dangerous…
71. “I’m sure Mike would appreciate it, as would all punters who come to this Site principally for betting purposes.”
You say that with a modicum of a frustration Peter
My tip?
Empty your savings accounts and back Tories for most seats: FREE MONEY.
39. I don’t think any sitting Tory MP had defected to Labour before the 1992-97 parliament.
There have been Labour -> Tory defections before (during the Callaghan government) but none this time.
78. Stuart - I had you down as 60-70yrs old - heh
Frank field is a rather popular figure among tory right wingers
61 TIMBOT, you’re not very good with sacking predictions. Ditto basic maths.
Labour should really really be hoping that Lettergate dies. I can’t see any joy for them in perpetuating the story.
The whole thing is distasteful to most people, and also reminds them of Afghanistan, which reminds them of Iraq, which reminds them that Labour have taken us into two pointless and disastrous wars.
Do Labour not see this? I’m not sure they do. They are so obsessed with “beating” The Sun they don’t grasp the larger politics.
27. Spot on. He won’t defect but if he did, he’d be welcomed with open arms.
Apart from his loyalty to both the (traditional) Labour party and his constituents, he’s capable of coming up with good ideas where he is and so still influencing government policy of either party without the need for defection.
One thing that’s been quite notable in a negative kind of way is the complete absence of defections and the general lack of headless chicken syndrome from the PLP. It’s actually been the precise opposite: in inability to muster the energy to do anything much at all.
On thread, No. FF is a Labour man, who while reaching a degree of agreement on particular issues with the Conservatives remains Labour - same applies to Gisella Stuart and Kate Hoey, forthright Labour but with sensible* views on particular areas.
*sensible=Conservative
71 PtP - Seconded.
BTW I’ve followed your lead with a modest punt on Labour in Dunfermline and W. Fife. Still hesitating over Con in Renfrewshire E.
57 Agree. The best outcome for the Tories is always that which will leave Brown as damaged as possible, but still inextricably stuck inside No 10 until polling day. No-one in Labour will move against him now; it would be like trying to drown a poor helpless abandoned puppy. At least the GE will see him put down humanely.
Frank Field is Labour through and through and is too proud to defect, and Cameron shouldn’t accept him anyway, IMHO. Defections muddy the waters and can have unexpected consequences.
87 - Sean, the poll at 76 suggest that the Sun got this very badly wrong, as did many of the commenters on here.
The ‘good day to bury bad news’ slot:
The number of incidents of loss or theft of personal data has risen to an “unacceptable” level in the past year, the privacy watchdog has warned
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8354655.stm
61 - The BBC are exploting the family of the dead soldier, I am disgusted that they are trying to split up this family.
Tim, you have moaned about The Sun, you should also by condeming the BBC as well, they are part of the Labour spin operation. But is it ok with you at it supports the Labour spin against The Sun?
82 All my savings accounts and then some have already been tipped into that paticular pot, thank you Casino. In fact, when I need a little cash for Christmas shopping and the like, I have to lay some back, but as a bank, I find Befair works a whole lot better than Barclays.
Frustrated? Well, I like to have a moan occasionally because the Site works so much better when there’s some betting to discuss.
94 - I didn’t think the original letter story was that big a deal.
It was the recording where the Sun overreached, so no comparison.
Do keep trying though, the groupthink on here is a delight to puncture sometimes.
95. Betting? I’m your man.
Future predictions: what do you want to know?
HIT ME.
92 tim-You and others got it very wrong as well.You said that Labour shouldn’t be challenging The Sun.
Did you read that link I gave you ?
77 (cont) When i say “It’s not about disliking Chavs it’s about disliking Chavistan.” the point i’m making is a lot of working class areas were probably very similar to Chavistan about 150 years ago. That was the point of the Labour Party (at least for some people). Now, after a hundred years or so of things gradually getting better it’s all lurched backwards.
“Does this story make you more or less inclined to want to defend MrBrown?”
LAB 80%
LIB 65%
CON 20%
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/the_backlash_voters_defend_gordon_brown_on_jacqui_janes_dispute.html
That’s a large figure from the LibDems, especially when compared to the tory figure.
There still exists a natural affinity between Labour and the LibDems. This will serve both parties well in the GE.
95. Did you see this on previous thread ?
As requested;
Exeter
Labour 5/6
Conservatives Evs
Liberal Democrats 16/1
UKIP 50/1
Greens 100/1
by shadsy November 11th, 2009 at 10:01 am
Hmm, interesting TimBot logic ok to go at the PM for bad handwriting / poor spelling. Not ok, to prove that the PM is a liar and argued, rather than apologised, to the mother of a dead soldier. Followed by further lies at the Press Conference.
Now it is ok for the Mirror and BBC to go digging / promote other opinions, but not ok for the Sun to do so.
71. PtP.
A hung parliament isn’t absurd; what is absurd is Rod’s belief that a hung parliament is inevitable, or even probable.
Paradoxically, even if there is a hung parliament it doesn’t prove him right…
“plus the grotesque bollocks from the Daily Mirror today - helping to tear this family apart further”
Had a quick butcher’s on the Mirror website, but as I didn’t want a work colleague to walk past and think I’m a regular reader, I didn’t linger - what have they done?
wibbler @76: Interesting poll, although if they asked the questions in the order they’re presenting them it’s probably overstating to how much good it’ll be doing Brown. Starting with something to the effect of “do you think the Sun are scumbags” (answer, “Doh”) probably encourages people to go on to say “their attack backfired” followed by “this story made me think more of Brown”.
It’ll be interesting to see what the next regular opinion poll gets, though…
96 TIMBOT, it’s pretty apparent that you don’t really care about the dreadful loss of lives suffered by the armed forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. This is all about political point scoring isn’t it? Nothing more.
“It was a particularly contemptuous introduction, even for the BBC. “A Conservative Old Etonian exits his limousine to lecture on how to help the poor”, Mark Easton said with relish on last night’s News at Ten.”
(http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100016431/david-cameron%E2%80%99s-vision-of-the-big-society-defeats-the-sneering-left/)
did anyone hear that? Is it actually true?
If so, why aren’t Eastonov and his boss both on sticks this morning?
“There still exists a natural affinity between Labour and the LibDems. This will serve both parties well in the GE.”
There still exists a natural affinity between Labour and the LibDems. This will serve both parties badly in the GE.
98 - I don’t think Labour needed to go after the Sun, they shot themselves in the foot so accurately it was unnecessary.
This is the second case in a fortnight where people have misread the impact of a media story.
Johnson and drugs.
Letter
I’ve bookmarked the link and will start it at the weekend.
Haven’t had time to read through the whole thread, but it strikes me that the most likely future for Frank Field is as a GOAT in a Cameron government, working with IDS. The two of them have a lot in common and like each other. If, as is suggested, Cameron gives IDS the role of fixing the broken society at Cabinet level, then having Frank alongside him would provide both intellectual and political cover. It would also allow Frank to take forward some of the ideas frustrated by Gordon Brown 11 years ago, a tempting outcome for a proud man.
WTF - some rapist gets 3 years ( min term ) for raping a 5 year old boy, after being set free for a previous one.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8354316.stm
Meanwhile thief get 2 years..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8354663.stm
Surely some mistake.
106 - Well he did continue to smear away between 11.00 and 11.02am this morning. Need we say more?
More on 71 PtP “My general impression is that Labour is holding on well in Scotland and that this could put a big brake on the Tory rush to a landslide.”
Surely that doesn’t make sense? A Tory victory, or even landslide, doesn’t depend on Scottish seats, where even the most optimistic prediction would only give the Tories a handful of gains, and most of those wouldn’t be from Labour. If Labour are holding up in Scotland, that impacts on the SNP and LibDems, but not significantly on the expectations for the Tories.
100. “There still exists a natural affinity between Labour and the LibDems. This will serve both parties well in the GE.”
Vote Yellow, Get Brown. You are spot on Gabble.
92. I didn’t. I concluded - when I had read the transcript - that I felt sorry for both people. The mother and the PM. They are both victims of their own psychologies, in a way: the emotionally dyslexic Brown, the angry and grieving mother.
So the story didn’t justify the violent anti-Brown headlines the Sun gave it.
However Labourites like Gabble are deluded if they think this error by the Sun is going to help Labour electorally. FFS. Brown is being pitied. No one votes for a pitiable politician. Voters want someone who can do the bloody job, not someone who makes them feel sad. Jeez Louise.
And the way Labour and the leftish media are now keeping the story going is, as I said above, totally stupid. Afghanistan (and Iraq) are toxic issues for Labour. Anything related to them should be utterly avoided by this government.
106 He can’t even get his political point scoring right. The recording was nothing to do with the Sun. It was passed to them by Jacqui Janes. Not that the timbot would care. He’s no better at telling the truth than his Dear Leader.
107, Mark Easton’s a particularly bad editor at the BBC. I remember him doing a piece on knife crime, and then saying it was basically ok because gun crime was falling. Also on knife crime (separate occasion) he was saying knives are becoming less common but baseball bats and bottles were being used more, when a community activist who was on interrupted to politely tell him he was talking shit.
114 - McGabble really is a star, last night doing the Tories work for them over the dangers of a hung parliament etc.
103. If there is a hung parliament it would be for entirely different reasons to the ones Rod Crosby cites.
If fancy statistical projections based on the past could so accurately and consistently model the future course then Rod would be a very rich man.
115 - It won’t impact electorally perhaps, but as wih the Tory idiocy over Dannatt it undermines the Suns position.
I think this episode will lead to a debate about the appropriateness of a blind man leading the country.
His disability doesn’t rule him out, but, equally, it must also be factored in.
117 - He is “Mr Stat Twister” personified.
119 - All The Sun will do it target different Labour figures week after week, this story took over the media agenda for two days. The Sun will change it strategy but this shows the power The Sun has over the media agenda, very bad news for Brown & Labour, especially during the election.
Might the differential response in favour of Mr Brown possibly be because the Lib Dem respondents to the survey are more fair-minded than the Tories?
(Quietly tiptoes out of the room….)
Richard Nabavi= correct.PtP= incorrect.
It is a sort of paradox that the worse the Tories are *doing* in Scotland, the better their prospects at the next GE.
Obviously my take is not perfect.If the Tories are doing badly everywhere then it is scant consolation that they are not doing well in Scotland.
Briefly my thesis is that the Tories will do well where they need to do well……and that doesn’t include Scotland.
120 tim - The Sun don’t have a ‘position’, they have a battering ram. Each morning they’ll turn up and bash at a different bit of the dilapidated fortifications.
122, Stat Twister is fit for a Spoonerism
90 Richard
Yes, Renfrewshire is one of my few raids north of Hadrian’s Wall. I was persuaded in part by the fact that Ladbrokes were a bit tighter than PP.
Our Scottish friends assure us that Dunfermiline is a shoo-in for Labour and I’ve trusted them on that one.
I’ve also gone for Labour in Edinburgh North at 6/4 with WH, so watch for Easterhouse’s premises being burned to the ground if that one fails to come in. (Not that I’m vindictive or anything.
)
Ok - here’s my betting tip.
I’m betting on the Tories getting 4+ seats in Scotland.
I think Easterross has some interesting analysis. There are a not insignificant number of middle-class, suburban and lowland Scots who will want their MP to have a voice on the inside if they know it’ll be a Tory government and if their candidate has a chance in their seat.
We know Dumfries&Galloway + D,C&T are certs. Any 2 pickups from anywhere else make that bet a winner.
120. The whole point of the Sun is that it reaches a lot of people who’d otherwise ignore politics. What the rest of the media says about Murdoch and so forth won’t affect them.
101 Yes Harry, I did, thanks.
Tories at evens are the value there, imo, but not quite enough of a margin for me to prise open my purse.
“it undermines the Suns position.
by tim November 11th, 2009 at 1:19 pm”
Er, come again? The Sun’s position is this: they are Britain’s best selling tabloid. All they care about is whether they carry on being number 1, and maybe increase sales as their competitors die off.
Lettergate will not affect that “position” one iota. Sun readers are not exercised by the nuances of political debate. They buy the paper cause it entertains them, gives them a bit of news and opinion, and is good for footer and hooter.
re the Sun, despite the fact, the Sun’s coverage has made me feel uncomfortable, and have sympathy for Brown, the whole lettergate farrago will be forgotten soon, probably around ten past 3 today, when Brown makes an inevitable faux pas at PMQ’s on another matter, and that will become the story.
More entirely manufactured evidence on which the government can base policies…
http://tinyurl.com/ygn68ty
124. Augustus Carp: “…Lib Dem respondents to the survey are more fair-minded than the Tories”
If I had to sum up the parties in one word, the tories would be “selfishness” and Labour would be “fairness”.
So, I agree, this is where the affinity could be rooted.
131. Aww. Ducks! Peter has a PURSE!
*flips hand effeminately*
131. Target seat no 178 at evens - says something !
Question: Can any Labour, or Labour sympathising, poster point me towards a post - with a link please - that they made before September 2007 where they criticised the Sun newspaper?
You will recall: these were the days when it openly supported Labour.
NO?
Thought not.
132 SeanT, the TIMBOT is simply reiterating Labour’s theory from last week that The Sun is becoming a political party in it’s own right. Don’t be hard on him - he’s only following his masters orders.
104 - It was always going to happen once the Sun ran with the story in the way that it did. I said as much on Monday and was pilloried for it.
Never visited north-eastern Glasgow? Here is a wee insight for the uninitiated:
http://www.scottishreview.net/IMcLeod166.html
(hat-tip: Subrosa blog)
When faced with the local Conservative candidate selection committee, how would Frank Field deal with the question about anything in his past that might be embarrassing or damaging to the reputation of the Party?
141. Why wouldnt the residents vote for the Party that has served them so well ?
103. LondonStatto November 11th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Right. Imo the odds available on a hung parliament are about right: it’s not likely but a distinct possibility.
Of course, though the Tories would be disappointed (from this position) with that outcome, a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party is a very different thing from a Labour victory.
http://newsarse.com/2009/11/10/new-call-of-duty-unrealistic-say-under-equipped-armed-forces/
Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith is a “failed teacher from Hagley” says Lord Jones
http://www.birminghampost.net/news/politics-news/2009/11/11/former-home-secretary-jacqui-smith-is-a-failed-teacher-from-hagley-says-lord-jones-65233-25144094/
I bet Gordo was glad he gave Digger Jones a job! Between him and SirAlun always good copy, but not for the right reasons.
139 - That’s right. Ad all the Toris on here are such independent thinkers. And there’s another pig flying across the sky.
146 - And, yes, I know Jones has now stepped down, before anybody gets pedantic.
141 - beggars belief that they vote decade after decade for more of the same.
71. PtP
“Wee” Stuart Dickson used to represent Edinburgh U15 rugby union team, on the wing, and was a dab hand at the 100m Butterfly and a bit of javelin-tossing.
Although no longer in absolutely mint condition, I am still in reasonably fine shape. High-speed collisions with “Wee” Stuart are unlikely to leave the other party as the more minor patch-up case.
I wonder if Cameron will go for this during PMQ’s
The Bank of England warned today that Britain’s economic recovery would be long and difficult, with inflation likely to stay below its target for most of the next two years.
Although the central bank predicted that the UK economy would start growing again at the start of 2010, and then pick up more quickly than previously thought, governor Mervyn King tried to dampen hopes of a swift recovery.
“Despite a recovery in economic growth, output is unlikely, at least for a considerable period, to return to a level consistent with a continuation of its pre-crisis trend,” said King, speaking after the central bank released its latest quarterly inflation expectations. “It’s going to be a long hard path back to where we wanted to be,” he added.
The inflation report estimated that UK economic growth would be close to 4% by the end of 2011. This is higher than the Bank predicted three months ago, despite data last month which showed that the UK was still in recession.
King indicated that this data, which showed a 0.4% contraction in the third quarter of 2009, could be revised upwards. But he also argued that it would be a big mistake to take a single quarter of economic growth as an excuse to “hang out the bunting”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/11/bank-of-england-economic-forecast
143. If that’s serving them well I’d hate to see what serving them badly would look like.
141 Thanks for that link, Stuart. The Scottish Review deserves credit for that piece, and I hope it gets a wider circulation.
“Would you vote for your Landlord?” used to be a powerful election slogan in years gone by. OK, the Housing Authority is not the Government, but it is the “establishment” when all is said and done.
132 - The aim is not to deprive the Sun of readers - for the reasons you set out that will not happen - but to minimise the inevitable and ongoing Sun attacks on the Labour Party over the next few months by establishing in people’s minds that the Sun has an agenda. The way the Sun has handled the Janes story gave Labour the perfect opportunity to do this. It might not work, but it will do no harm and makes perfect sense.
Does anyone know where I can get video footage of the Commons, for the 13 May 2008????
TIA
147 SO.The Tory posters on here can be sharply divided into wits,halfwits and those who would struggle to achieve the cherished ‘halfwit’ label.
147 ‘Ad all the Toris on here are such independent thinkers.’
I don’t believe I’ve ever suggested that they were.
155 - You tube is your friend.
131 - I think Labour at 5/6 are great value to win Exeter.
They held their County seats there in May (albeit narrowly) so they are at least battlers. The boundary changes are probably a little worse for the Tories than the websites suggest (I think they underestimate the loss of Topsham which is deep blue at national level). The Lib Dems are strong at City Council (narrowly the largest party) and will be hard to squeeze. The Earl of Dartmouth is quite a strong UKIP candidate. The Tory candidate is not very experienced. On a big enough national swing, these factors won’t save it for Labour of course. But I think this is one where the odds are a bit skewed by punters wanting to see Bradshaw lose rather than the fundamentals of the seat.
147. Yes, SO. And the way that herd instinct manifests itself is the view that any leftish/ dissenting voice on the forum has been sent forth by the evil (and interchangeable) forces of Draper/BBC.
159. I concur.
141. Excellent link Stuart. Thanks for posting it.
This is why I hate Labour: “For his own protection, he erected a metal shutter over his front door – this, after he had been the victim of attempted break-ins at 2 in the morning. He has been ordered to remove the metal shutter, but refuses to do so. He has also created an improvised garden on his balcony. He has been ordered to take that down too.”
Ordered to take it down? ORDERED? A man trying to create order out of chaos? Civilisation out of barbarity?
“Sixteen years ago, encouraged by the government, they bought their flat. ‘Now we’re being punished for that,”
PUNISHED?
Labour: we will tell you what to do. If we decide to make your life better - we will then you if and when we’re ready. If you make us look bad by doing it yourselves we will knock you back down to size.
Vote Labour for a living hell.
57: ‘I reckon Labour are in danger of creating a backlash to the backlash…’
I think you will almost definitely be proved right. The original elements of this story were: mother, stricken and raw with grief; Brown, careless but well intentioned; The Sun, a bit heavy handed. All correct-thinking people thought this was a most unhappy episode and wished it to be resolved quickly and smoothly with both Mrs Janes’s and Gordon Brown’s dignity intact. Alas and predictably, the Labour Party and its bag carriers, sniffing that for once Brown was an object of vague sympathy as opposed to outright loathing and contempt, began shrieking from the rooftops that Brown was a victim of abuse. (David Cameron, who as far as I can see had nothing to do with it, has also been accused of being party to this abuse.) An unpleasant tactic by Labour which ultimately demeans rather than elevates Brown. Nasty business.
103 Let me defend Rod for a moment, London, if only because few others will.
I well remember his first article here on PB about an HP. Labour were doing rather better then and in a detailed and well argued thread piece he estimated the probability of an HP at around 60%. I read it with considerable interest and agreed with the main thrust, although I thought he rather overstated his case: I put the probability at about 40%, which still made it a value bet (HP was about 5/2 at the time) and I put my money down. I have never regreted that and although the tide has turned against Labour and against an HP since then, I still maintain his core argument was correct. It remains so to the extent that it is interpreted as stating that an HP is still a lot more likely than most people think. The odds are about 4/1 now on Betfair: personally I think it should be 3/1, and the difference represents decent value.
I also think he is correct to point out that it doesn’t take much of a swing back to take the projected Conservative majority back into HP territory. The shrewder Tory posters here acknowledge that readily and are rightly concerned about it. The Herd just like to bait Rod.
There are a number of respects in which I am a long way from being Rod’s greatest fan but there are others in which he stands head and shoulders about The Herd (or rather The Herds, since Labour and LD Herds are just as bad as Tory ones, only being rather smaller in number they are a tad less irritating.)
1. He writes coherent and well argued thread pieces
2. He posts on betting related matters
3. He puts his money where his mouth is
He remains therefore a net asset to a Site whose raison d’etre is political betting and a pain in the ar*e to those who like to treat it as a free billboard for their own partisan Party views.
146 - What he says there is true but, in fairness, Diggers himself is a failed solicitor from Bromsgrove so can’t really talk. Seems to me that the CBI opinion of their former boss is that he was a good self publicist with no real grasp of his brief.
159 - Also, another factor is that Ben Bradshaw seems quite popular with his electorate too. His defence on Exeter following the attack of Emma Thompson will have helped him too.
166. Factor in that it will almost be worth losing your stake to see his face at a losing count
151 - “But he also argued that it would be a big mistake to take a single quarter of economic growth as an excuse to “hang out the bunting””
Interesting quote from King, because it is likely that is exactly what Labour are going to try and do.
159 That is always a risk. OTOH, Exeter does a Conservative history, and unlike many other university seats, the Conservatives remain in contention. UKIP also polled very well here, in the County elections (almost certainly helping Labour to retain two divisions) but I don’t think they’ll match that in general election conditions.
167 - Very true.
151
“Despite a recovery in economic growth, output is unlikely, at least for a considerable period, to return to a level consistent with a continuation of its pre-crisis trend,” said King
IIrc, to follow the Darling/Brown five-year plan to reduce the deficit, the country needs to get to that pre-crisis level of growth…
165 - Many were well aware of that before Gordo picked him. SirAlun is very much in the same boat, not knocking his personal success in a niche business, but poor grasp of the far wider brief he has been asked to promote.
150 LOL!
Sometimes, Stuart, I am grateful there is 500 miles between us.
133 I agree. Roy Greenslade on The World at One, Radio 4, gives an interesting angle on the Gordon Brown story:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00npdp1#synopsis
When the link comes up, if you scroll roughly three-quarters along, RG came on just after 1.30pm.
My gut feeling has been that Gordon Brown’s intentions were good, and that curiously, the publicity around the letter made more people aware of it - and his detractors will pounce on anything he does, and frankly, appear quite mean-spirited and cynical. In terms of popular opinion, I actually think this will boost support for Gordon Brown, out of sympathy and also common sense: Gordon Brown wrote that letter impulsively, perhaps, but out of genuine compassion, and the ordinary Labour voter will see through the baiting and criticism to the essential goodness of his act.
167 - Betting as insurance!
169 - UKIP won’t match it but equally Labour turnout will be higher than at a County election. I think it’s all wishful thinking really. Bradshaw is a fairly canny operator as are Exeter Labour - who in fairness to them have just about held onto their core in the City despite pressure from both other parties (much more resilient than other areas). One key is they have good data and are tactically astute - in particular they leave Tories and Lib Dems to battle it out in certain wards in locals but retain a good idea of where their support is for the General.
174 - But what about the lies? Does it not matter he lied to the woman and lied to the press?
163. Yes Labour have already gone too far with talk or revenge against the Sun, and a contract with the Tories. For some reason the Sun’s switch of allegiance has really unsettled the Labour Party, are Labour worried about what the Sun may reveal to its new friends?
165 “but, in fairness, Diggers himself is a failed solicitor from Bromsgrove so can’t really talk”
I think you may be seriously ill-informed on that one; doesn’t tally with how I remember him in Birmingham; nor with this:
http://www.britishindustryawards.co.uk/index.asp?PageID=37
“He was awarded a University Cadetship in the Royal Navy (1974 – 1977) then took articles with the Birmingham corporate law firm Edge and Ellison in 1978. He was admitted as a Solicitor in 1980.
He made Partner at Edge and Ellison in 1984 and it was in corporate finance and client development that he made his name. He was responsible for developing the firm’s London presence and establishing its representation in many European countries and several states in America. He was involved in most of the major management buy-outs and merger and acquisition activity in the West Midlands in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He was made Deputy Senior Partner in 1990 and Senior Partner in 1995.”
164. *SIGH*
Level-headed Peter has used “The Herd”
Peter: it’s the swingback *theory* I think most of us have no time for. Neither do Mike Smithson or David Herdson IIRC and have rightly pulled Rod up on it in the past.
Rod makes no allowance in his mathematical theories to take account of the facts.
The probability of a hung parliament is, indeed, higher than most think - and I, for one, have bet accordingly - but what is incredible is the way Rod thinks it is inevitable on past performance and will not brook any evidence that contradicts this.
He is also mightly pompous about it - which doesn’t help.
159 Sir Norfolk
My recollection is that Ben Bradshaw was assisted considerably in his original bid to win the seat by a truly awful homophobic Conservative opponent. Any half-decent Tory candidate now must surely have an edge?
Exeter always ‘feels’ Tory to me, although I confess my visits have been largely confined to visiting my daughter at ‘the green-welly University’.
164 PtP
I think I prefer baiting Rod about his ’swingback’ suggestion rather than the possibility of a hung Parliament.
Swingback ideas forget the awful fact of who the PM is. 4 weeks of Gordon v Cameron in equal measure in the press is going to exacerbate any previously held Tory lead. Labour MUST get shot of this guy before a defeat becomes a massacre. I don’t think they will now and therefore a hung parliament is almost dead and buried outside of a major unforseen event. Cam under a bus maybe.
I think as it stands an election tomorrow would see a Tory majority around 50. But an election 4 weeks from now, after a full campaign, would be MUCH more likely to see a Tory majority 100+ than one of less than 1.
175. I wonder if there is just a hint here that the Lib Dems (or some of them at least) will indeed be trying to help keep Bradshaw in place at the GE?
172 If you missed the intv with Lord Alan - this is a corker - I cringed when I read it.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article6907715.ece
177
The Sun will no doubt have lots of dirt on lots of MP’s, it rather depends who and when they wish to dish it out to.
As the election approaches, MP’s are going to get caught out by saying one thing when the opposite is true.
Could someone please release my comment at 178; nothing contentious in it.
re 100 well Gabble if you multiply that up by the latest Indy’s poll of polls (C 42, Lab 28, LD 18 IIRC) then you get a grand total of 42.5% who reckon that it makes them more likely to defend Brown.
164 - So you’re including Mike Smithson in the Herd?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/
164. re Rod Crosby. Whilst I take your point, I think it’s very hard to take his views on a hung parliament seriously when he’s already shown a glaring disregard for evidence in certain other fields.
Good post,marf at 174.If only you could illustrate that.
Good post also Peter the Punter, re Crosby.
Sorry to be a tw*t but what time is or was pmqs today?
189 - 3pm today.
189, 3pm, due to Armistice.
PMQ’s @ 3.00pm
174 I know, he’s inconsistent and that’s disturbing. I think he was stunned by the woman’s hostility and couldn’t cope with it; he was on the defensive ….
178 Well, I said ‘The Herds’, Casino, but point taken. I won’t do it again.
Yes, I think Rod overstates his case, as I satted, but at least he states a case, which puts him some ay ahead of the assorted….(oops can’t say Herds)….Flagwavers, most of whom can barely rise above the level of semi-literate insult.
Pompous? Yes. Me too. But there are plenty here can give us lessons in that subject.
190, argh! My morris dancer athleticism is no match for the speed of an eagle
Cameron should go on the economy.
Re. 48, yes, Brown should have done this re. Quentin Davies.
187 Andrew G.More than anyone on this site I take offence when Crosby strays into ‘other fields’.
However I do not regard that as a licence to rubbish him when he wears his psephological hat.
181 - The Lib Dems in Exeter see it as a three way marginal because they do well at local elections, the Alliance did very well in the 1980s, they have often had their seat of power at County Hall in the City, and got a good result last time. That doesn’t, of course, make it true. But they are a genuine force in the City and have been for many years. You could equally say they “tried” to keep Sir George Hannam in place for the Tories in 1992 - they didn’t “try” as such because they were fighting for themselves, but did probably “succeed”.
Thanks all
Back to the future eh..
193 - Gordon Brown reminds of one of those call centre operatives, who have this script and will stick too it, and will not deviate it from it, no matter what!
We see it in PMQ’s, we saw it in the phone call too.
187. Rod is amusing at times, but he is really just Mark Senior with added mathematical skills. All his analyses are tailored to fit preconceived viewpoints and while they are occasionally worth a read if only as a challenge to consensus viewpoints, they are of limited value per se for punters IMHO.
193 – Marf, it has been an obligation for the PM to write letters of condolence to the relatives of the fallen.
Gordon Brown wrote a slapdash response, riddled with spelling mistakes and the ultimate mistake he made was spelling the name wrong. His “genuine compassion” incensed the mother to such a degree that she went public.
I agree mountain has been manufactured out of a mole hill, but the original blame rests on Brown’s shoulders, it was an insult to the mother.
Brother Brogan off the reservation again,
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100016471/guess-which-department-offers-a-better-letter-masterclass-as-part-of-correspondence-month/
195 - He should, and use King’s words at 151.
Re speed, look on the bright side, one of the little eaglets will have Morris as a middle name.
FPT I really liked this summary from Pumpkin of Labour supporting tactics for PB
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/11/should-we-focus-more-on-negative-voting/comment-page-4/#comment-1303416
197. I’m not suggesting the Lib Dems shouldn’t or won’t try on their own account, but rather that some of them may try to help Labour instead. There’s a record of such attempted stitch ups in the region.
177: ‘…and a contract with the Tories’
Didn’t know what you meant by that so just Googled it. Bizarre! We all know that Mandelson threw a frightful tantrum when The Sun ditched Labour - presumably because it demonstrated that he was nowhere near as powerful and manipulative as he thought he was - but his theory (I use the word loosely) that some mysterious ‘contract’ between The Sun and the Tories will affect the impartiality of the BBC are the ramblings of a neurotic. I think Mandelson is rapidly being seen as the joke figure he really always was.
Completely O/T, but how would this go down north and south of the border and what would Alex and Co have to say about it?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8353937.stm
If it happens, there would surely be a political knock-on. Could we continue to have separate national teams, for example?
One for those interested in Old Etonians
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-couldnt-make-it-up-fact-of-day.html
207. SO
Yawn.
Read that same article 1000 times over the last two decades.
186. TBH once this site really took off, with visitor numbers in the tens of thousands it was never going to be *just* about betting.
Like it or not, political betting is still a very niche interest. The site would not be the huge success it is today without its wider audience and I welcome that.
Pb.com was always going to attract a much wider audience than punters because the intelligent and considered analysis you get on here is just far superior to anything you can get anywhere else on the internet.
Casino hasn’t dumbed down. But if anything I’d say I’m *GLAD* of having both punters and partisans on here at the same time.
The punters are able to show up what absolute piffle some hyper-partisan arguments are. The debates we have here both eek out the truth and sift out the dross in a way that simply wouldn’t be able to happen anywhere else.
And I find that very refreshing indeed.
203, huzah!
And be named after the best F1 driver too.
174 Marf.”The essential goodness of his act”. This could well be true in the first instance. The problem with it arises when his phone-call is taken into account. Disputing with Mrs, Janes was crass. Would you not agree that this was totally unacceptable? The sympathy shown by many towards Brown seems to me to take no account of it.
From Hill’s press site:
BY - AND GENERAL ELECTION BETTING SPECIALS
Will Government be hung out to dry?
DAVID CAMERON 11/2 TO BE PRIME MINISTER IN HUNG PARLIAMENT
POLITICAL PUNTERS are betting on a Hung Parliament at the next General Election, say bookmakers William Hill, who currently offer 11/4 about the scenario coming about. ‘We always see a certain amount of support for a Hung Parliament as any General Election apporoaches, but the level of interest this time around is running at some 50% higher than normal, which is a little surprising, but perhaps the fact that although the Tories are well ahead in the polls it would only take a small fall off in their nsupport to make a Hung Parliament a real possibility’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
HILLS MAKE DAVID CAMERON (or any other Tory) 11/2 TO BE PRIME MINISTER IN A HUNG PARLIAMENT, WITH GORDON BROWN (or any other Labour politician) TO DO THE SAME, AND IT IS 100/1 FOR A POLITICIAN FROM ANY OTHER PARTY TO DO SO.
Hills make the Tories 2/7 favourites to win the Election with a clear overall majority, with Labour 14/1 to do likewise.
YOU BET LABOUR SET TO HOLD GLASGOW IN BY ELECTION
THE FIRST GAMBLE on Labour to win a by-election since Gordon Brown came to power has gatehered pace, and seen William Hill slash the odds about a victory for them in the Glasgow North East by-election, from 2/9 to 1/6 red hot favourites. ‘At the start of the campaign, Labour were only 2nd favourites, but they are now being gambled on as though defeat were out of the question. We’d almost given up hope that there were any Labour-fancying political punters left, until they suddenly began to back Labour to win in Glasgow - we haven’t seen a Labour gamble since Tony Blair’s days!’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
By contrast, the SNP odds have gone from 8/11 odds-on favourites, out to 7/2. ‘There is little support for the SNP to upset Labour this time’ said Sharpe.
HILLS ARE BETTING ON WHO WILL FINISH 3RD IN THE BY ELECTION….and make John Smeaton (Jury) 11/10 favourite, with the Conservatives 5/4; BNP 14/1; Lib-Dems 16/1; Solidarity 20/1; Greens and Scot Socialist Party both 25/1; Independent and Scot Senior Cirizens 33/1.
YOU BET BLAIR IN RETREAT
TONY BLAIR’s odds of becoming European President have drifted from odds-on favourite to 11/2 with William Hill who make Herman Van Rompuy 8/13 favourite, and also offer 7/1 Jean-Claude Juncker and Jan-Peter Balkenende; 10/1 Wolfgang Schlussel; 11/1 Paavo Lipponen; 12/1 Felipe Gonzalez; 14/1 Guy Verhoftstadt. ‘If money talks - as it frequently does in political betting - then Tony Blair’s hopes of becoming President are dead in the water’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Another Labour MP who could be in the Sensible Big Tent.
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2009/11/11/how-i-invented-new-labour/
194. Absolutely Peter. I can be particularly pompous myself, with alarming regularity.
Crikey
Labour Fails to Honour Attlee’s Memory
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/labour-fails-to-honour-attlees-memory.html#links
On the Rod C debate. I enjoy reading his articles which as PtP says are very well argued. I’ve also learned an awful lot about psephology by following his links, but his cast iron assertion that swing back MUST happen because it’s happened in the past flies against the face of all theories of statistics.
I too have a fair amount at various odds on a HP. I don’t think it’s a winner but I look forwards to laying it off following the inevitable rogue poll during the election campaign.
206. “…are the ramblings of a neurotic.”
It is very odd. The reaction by the Labour party to the Sun’s switch of allegiance has been so over the top that I can’t help but wonder why is it so? What are we missing? Why are Labour so angry and acting so paranoid?
Plato, I think Pumpkin missed off Nadine; Tory “whackjobs”; and the obligatory trashing of the mental capacity of anyone daring to take a contrary position to tim…
211 - I just need some ideas for a name for a girl.
219, I thought they were both chaps?
Sarah’s a good name.
220 - Nope, one girl, one boy. I was persuaded, to let her name the boy, I got to name the girl.
abour are throwing everything at Glasgow NE. Eddie Izzard has landed..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/6538909/Eddie-Izzard-joins-finale-of-Glasgow-North-East-by-election-campaign.html
Maybe he could take kate Hoey with him? Tally Ho!
OT. ‘If you sleep with dogs you catch flees’ as the unfortunate Mrs James-or is it Janes is finding out. As for Dave’s new best friends at the ‘Soaraway Sun’-even I didn’t realize how much they are loathed.
It’s a pity they didn’t heed the advertising maxim that you start a campaign from a position of belief.
People believe the ‘Sun’ to be a blister on the backside of society but they don’t believe Brown is without compassion.
“the obligatory trashing of the mental capacity of anyone daring to take a contrary position to tim…”
Has the Smearbot ever given any indication of the extent of his educational achievements?
abour -> Labour
Could someone release my post at 214 please - it’s a url link to Tom Harris MP
151 - I doubt Cameron will go for monetary policy as he has shown he’s out of his depth and just been slapped down by Mervyn King.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE5AA1ZK20091111
I think this article by Simon Jenkins best sums up the situation on letter gate
I feel for Brown. But he should have left the letter-writing to the Queen
Despite the hounding of the prime minister over his condolence letter, such acts of sympathy are best left to heads of state
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/10/sympathy-politician-head-of-state
223 - Your reaction and behaviour over this incident has hardly be exemplary, as you once again indicate.
210 Yes, I’d agree pretty much with all of that, Casino.
It’s the punters that make the Site though. (Just look what you get on non-punting political Sites.) Their discipline and objectivity seems to attract a lot of interesting and intelligent non-punting posters. Collectively that attracts the bovine persuasion, but that’s life.
219. Question of taste really, isn’t it?
I like traditional girls names like Charlotte, Cassendra, Abigail and Elizabeth.
Not so keen on Quaker type names like Hope, Faith and Chairty. And I positively balk at the pretentious trend of naming children after “repressed” countries like India and Ireland.
230. I don’t disagree with that at all Peter.
230 by contrast, just look at what you get on pure punting sites though. The politics forum on betfair is terrible
231 Shurely you mean caprine
Frank Field is every Tory’s favourite Labour MP (along with Kate Hoey, maybe). He could have been a hugely positive force within a Labour government but for some reason Gordon doesn’t like him (another thing we can hold against Gordon Brown). I would love him to cross the floor because I would like to see him in a ministerial position.
However, I won’t be sorry to see him stay on the Labour benches either (as seems far more probable); he’s always going to be an independent-ish voice and he’s always going to contribute thoughtfully and intelligently to debates whichever side he sits on. He does the country as much good representing Labour as he would representing the Conservatives.
231 - I’m quite keen on Elizabeth, however that one wont work for us.
223. Were you complaining about the Sun in 2005 when they backed Labour Roger?
Perhaps you could provide a link?
232 I thought you were going with Cameron as in Diaz
Unemployment in Wales has risen sharply in the three months between July and September, latest figures indicate.
Wales lost more jobs than any other UK nation or region for the second consecutive three-month period.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/wales_politics/8354653.stm
Could these regional factors be important?
236. Sounds like your wife knows what she wants!!!!
238 - Cameron is a boys name apparently
240 - It’s not so much that, my ex is called Elizabeth.
236 - My daughter’s name, bless her.
India is for the very posh and I have never heard of any one called Ireland. I know a couple of Norways though.
Re 239. It isn’t actually surprising. Unemployment in Wales actually rose less quickly in Wales than other places in the early phase of the recession. It’s now catching up. Probably a lagging indicator in part due to the larger size of the public sector in Wales.
209 - Clearly it would be a bit of a bummer for Nats.
Abigail is now forever linked wih Abigail’s Party and Demis Roussos.
Avoid…
242 I always think ‘The Democratic Republic of Congo’ sounds nice for a girl
231
For some reason, grape varieties are popular - like Chardonnay.
How about
Zinfandel?
234. Never get any urban middle-classes calling their precious darling little daughter “Israel” do you?
I’d love that; “Yah, yah. By the way, have you met my troublesome two before Josephine? Here they are… Now, come on Texas and Israel, don’t be shy!!”
242 If she’s a mermaid you could call her Madison
RE Plato November 11th, 2009 at 2:05 pm “FPT I really liked this summary from Pumpkin of Labour supporting tactics for PB
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/11/should-we-focus-more-on-negative-voting/comment-page-4/#comment-1303416
Yes, why is it that one party, Labour, is engaged in 90% of all the smearing?
236: Lots of spin-off names from Elizabeth though.
Liz
Lizzie
Eliza
Beth
239. The West Midlands has also taken a hefty hit, which may well explain in part the big lead the Tories have shown there in recent polls.
241. Yup. And she doesn’t want her daughter to remind her of *HER* does she?
Fleur(ie)?
Myanmar would work quite well as a girl’s name. And if you were being imaginative, you could throw in a nod to a supermodel at the same time as being supportive of a developing nation by calling a girl Elle Salvador.
219: TSE
Having had two boys and a girl and all are happy with all their names, I must confess that the girl was the difficult one to name.
It all depends on the nature of your surname. I have a hard and guttural surname and so we chose softer Christian names for all of them. Also we resisted any pressure from friends and relations and did not name them after anyone. Thirdly, we did try and ensure that the names if shortened would still be liked and also that they did not spell a word (or even hint at one) that would be a burden to the child at school or in later life.
Having got past all of those, we then avoided any topical names or ones that would have any class or time-linked connotations.
All of this did provoke a somewhat lively domestic debate but we did in the end agree on the names chosen within about two weeks of the birth.
So all I can advise is to get hold of a comprehensive list of names, elimininate those that either of you do not like and try out your combinations of names verbally and also in writing.
We had a timescale that made us work on it as I was due for my next long overseas trip in that fortnight after the birth.
The very best of debates to you both.
247
If they were really *right on* how about Soweto ?
O/T:- Lord Coe has warned that the battle for votes in England’s fight to host the 2018 World Cup is in severe danger of being lost.
A source close to the campaign told The Times that Coe has held emergency talks with Lord Triesman, the bid chairman, as concerns grow among several board members that their hopes are faltering under the latter’s leadership.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/international/article6911800.ece
252 And Betty
258 - Wasn’t Lord Triesman an ex Labour Minister?
257: Guam? Laos? The Democratic Republic of Congo?
The possibilities are endless.
TSE, a female eaglet is called an ‘eagless’
How’s about eaglass or legless for the rug rat.
257. Oooohhhh….!!
Or any of the four provinces of Ethopia worst hit by the 1984-1985 famine?
Like Gojjam, Hararghe, Tigray, and Wollo.
How about Togo? Venezuela? Fiji?
262 Or Libya - unfortunately I suspect some naughty boys would mispell it
263. I think Somalia would be a good name. Connotations of a certain lawless libertarianism as well.
141. A good link Stuart Dickson.
I went to school yards from the Fountainwell flats and well recall the nights when I would sneakily go round to my pal who lived in those flats, not to drink Bucky but to listen to the latest episode of “Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.” Deprivation indeed.
I grew up in Springburn (now Glasgow NE in parliamentary terms) and watched it being destroyed both from without and from within. Imagine the Nimbyist furore if a dual carriageway was to be put through an equivalent thriving area in North London, Islington perhaps. What would the political reaction be if a compulsory purchase order was served on Granita in order for a road to be built, to whisk the middle classes through to the green belt from the City.
Springburn was a thriving community of small shops (like those much beloved of Middle England like butchers, haberdashers, fruiterers, bakers) small businesses, well maintained parks, good local schools. Then overnight the community was systematically destroyed in order to reduce the journey time from the burbs to the town. google “old springburn” and you’ll see the community I’m describing.
At the same time national government decided that as a nation, we no longer required heavy industry, so the world’s foremost train manufacturing centre was closed down and with it the livelihood and pride of tens of thousands of local people.
This area has still to recover from these savage blows and even now I struggle to recognise the places of my childhood.
The article is right. These people have been forgotten. You’ll forgive them then, if tomorrow they decide that casting a vote is not at the top of their list of daily priorities.
Charlotte’s a good name…plenty of possibilities from that as well, (Charlie,Lottie etc), and Katherine (Kat, Kate, Kattie, Kath) etc….
Castro if its a boy ?
You do realise I would get castrated with a rusty spoon if i suggested some of these names to my other half?
237. They contributed to the political demise of TB. They were alone among the tabloids (I think) in supporting Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. This was more than the Labour Party could stomach and led to the (deserved) end of Blair.
“He [Geoffrey Robertson] described this week’s report from the commission on phone hacking at News Group Newspapers as ‘pathetic’ and evidence of a ‘fraud’ committed by the editors who site [sic] on the commission’s code committee.”
http://www.journalism.co.uk/2/articles/536448.php
250 - As has been pointed out before the term “smear” has become so devalued by the herd on here that it is not worth using.
One strange link between many of your suggestions though is how many of them are rooted in Camerons leadership campaign.
The initial drugs questions pushed by Camerons rivals were what led to the decision by Cameron (prompted I believe by Gove) to try and outflank Fox and Davis by pledging to leave the EPP.
Thus the Tories links with anti semites and homophobes are directly related to decision to avoid answering cocaine questions.
There you go, will that do for you.
And its true.
270 Well there you have your perfect name - Castrata!
I’d love to call my little girl “Rhodesia”.
Just to see the look on the faces of those Islington luvvies at dinner parties.
Farage says UKIP are fielding 550 candidates at GE
#244.
Re Celtic & Rangers joining Premier League -You say “Clearly it would be a bit of a bummer for Nats.”
Not so sure about that-Celtic and Rangers beating English teams week in and week out might give them a boost
It’s not as if they would be giving up and forming unions with Man U. or Arsenal is it?
Cannot see it happening for a long, long time as the English Premier league strugglers will see it as a threat to them.
275: Depends how many are ‘paper’ candidates. (ie no funding or backing behind them).
re 248 Israel is a boy’s name surely?
TSE, pardon me for asking, but haven’t you just got marries?
265. True. I knew a girl at school called Virginia; and, well..
274 - That wouldn’t make up for a lifetime of jokes that she’d have to endure about ridgebacks.
260 - Yes, Triesman was Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills.
275 - Where’s the money coming from I wonder? Wheeler?
275 - I wonder how many deposits they’ll hold?
276:Not so sure about that-Celtic and Rangers beating English teams week in and week out might give them a boost
In League 1 maybe….
Farage says Lord Pearson is only credible UKIP replacement for him.
4 other candidates would be a problem.
Well nothing like influencing the election!
This is essential to any babyname discussion.
http://www.babynamewizard.com/
276 - Recent form of the Old Firm in European competition suggests that you are whistling in the wind.
269 Harriet. It works for me (but you would be amazed at the number of people who manage to mis-spell it.)
No doubt there’ll be some quality control issues around candidates in the lower divisions of those UKIP 550 for tim to have some fun with…
278 - Yes, got married 11days ago.
273 - Isn’t that what William Rees Mogg called his daughter?
284. The MOST READ post on Speccie Coffeehouse:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/rodliddle/5525353/to-you-celtic-football-club-i-say-never.thtml
281 - Is there no part of British Life that Labour havent managed to infect and ruin?
281 - Our first ever Minster for Intellectual Property and absolutely clueless.
The only thing he has going for him is that he is a Spurs fan.
291: I’ll have you know I’m friends with Ms Rees-Mogg on facebook
290. I envy you. I have a SeanT like problem with women.
269 TSE - Well, there you go. I did say the choice was illusory!
But I imagine you’ll go for the obvious 2010 girl’s name: Margaret Hilda
276 - It would herald a British league though and probably the end of separate national teams.
285: Another Etonian…tim will be pleased.
296 - Oh I have a problem with women too.
Some friends thought I was yanking their chain, when I sent out the first batch of invitations.
297. Financial?
301 Its all those dockside hookers I guess
302 Well that’d be a good name for a gold digger!
295. The one with the dark swarthy eyes and sexy husky voice?
But, I also suspect, would be hard work as a partner?
#287
“Recent form of the Old Firm in European competition suggests that you are whistling in the wind.”
To make a serious point, as I expect you know, it is all about TV money which Celtic & Rangers would get much more of if playing against English teams.
That added to their support would soon make them top 4/6 challengers. I suspect that would be the view of O’Neill (who supports the move) at Aston Villa and McLeish at Birmingham City, both former “Old Firm” managers.
One point on names: consider email and the internet. My life is blighted by having both a Christian name and surname that most people seem to have an inability to spell correctly. Emails are constantly going astray (which can be a good thing, actually). If only my parents had more forethought in 1967 and seen the impact of technological advances.
Bank of England governor dampens hopes of swift UK recovery
• Mervyn King says economy will start to grow next year, but predicts path back to recovery will be ‘long and hard’
• Inflation likely to stay below 2% target for next two years
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/11/bank-of-england-economic-forecast
If UKIP are fielding that many candidates, I guess we should relook at this market over at Paddy Power.
UKIP Votes at the next General Election Monday 8th March 2010, 22:00
UKIP Votes at the next Election Hide
Singles Only.
Applies to the total number of UKIP votes at the next General Election according to the BBC.
0 - 750,000
2/1
750,001 - 1,000,000
11/8
1,000,001 - 1,250,000
3/1
1,250,001 - 1,500,000
5/1
1,500,001 or more
13/2
223 No, you catch fleas, you jerk.
I can think of nothing sadder than being someone whose ambition in life is to be a second tim, but who just isn’t intellectually up to it.
304. If you’re into yanking chains, maybe you shouldn’t have got married?
309 - So you acknowledge that for these Scottish enterprises to thrive to their best potential, they need to be fully integrated into a wider British business environment? Interesting!
This guy really is the organ grinder these days isn’t he!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/11/mandelson-tipped-as-information-minister
314 - That’s what my friends thought too.
test
The Sun censoring critical comments? Surely not!
“The Sun’s site carried no attacks on it for having made so much of a story that poured scorn on a man with bad eyesight and poor handwriting who appeared to have acted with sincerity and compassion.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2009/nov/11/sun-gordon-brown
311: ’start’ to grow next year?
That a hint that Q4 might still be a drop?
Huh, Nick Ross is talking absolute rubbish on DP, talking about cutting number of MP’s to 200.
The funniest name I ever came across was an ultra-orthodox Jew called Sagi Shitrit.
#315
Ultimatey, I’d prefer there to be a European Super League
292 - Just about the first decent thing I have ever read from Liddle.
312. Look about right. With UKIP fielding 500+ candidates I’d have thought 800-900K was a realistic total for them.
Tempted to have a cover flutter at 1million+ though - just in case.
319 - Nothing like poacher turned gamekeeper!
Chastity Thunderthighs Sreaming Eagles has a certain ring to it. Aspirational, too.
323 - I do like your name, it’s the name of a character from my favourite ever book.
322. What a crap name.
“path back to recovery will be ‘long and hard’”
Rubbish. That’ s not what our Gord says.
“The Sun’s site carried no attacks on it for having made so much of a story that poured scorn on a man with bad eyesight and poor handwriting who appeared to have acted with sincerity and compassion.”
Hang on, some Labour bod on Today stated that the majority of comments on the Sun website supported Brown.
In the Seventeenth Century, you had Puritans giving their children names like Zeal-in-the-Land, and Hew-Agag-in-Pieces-Before-the-Lord.
319. Oh dear ‘bad eyesight, poor handwriting’…I can hear the violins and the sound of (Sarah?) sobbing…
…but wait ’sincerity’..now we can resume laughing.
327. And everyone will want to shag her in eighteen years time.
322 - How about, Anurag Dikshit, founder of Party P_oker? Rather unfortunate name, but as a billionaire I doubt he cares much!
329 I once saw a self certified sickness form from an employee who had been off sick with the trots….
His form explained that he had been off ill as he had had “dire rear”
302. The end of separate national teams is pretty logical anyway…and might even be a relief for some Scots….
‘Following email smears from William Hague’s press office comes fresh evidence today showing the lengths the party is willing to go to close down the controversy over its new allies in Europe.’
http://tinyurl.com/ygycbte
More Euro deceipt from liar Cameron.
(After Gabble)
335
!!!
On the Old Firm
This has been a hot topic amongst footy aficionados for the last year or so. The old firm *really* want into the premier league as they need the money to compete, and ultimately survive. The TV companies *really* want them in, as it will bring in tens of thousands of new subscribers and even more new viewers.
The sticking point was how to fit the two in. Well there’s a solution:
1) Expand the premiership to two leagues, which gets the also rans on side.
2) Reduce the top league size, which gets the big four on side.
The next sticking point, was the reluctance of the old firm to go into a lower league. But, the disparity in money between the premier clubs and Scots league is now so great, the Old Firm are willing to accept this. Google if you don’t believe me.
The old firm will be in the premiership with a few years. Their gates and status will quickly elevate them to the higher reaches of the league.
Then the talk of a Euro league will really hot up.
Sorry this is the best name ever, 5 across, 5 down.
“Ginger Minge”
http://www.electraisd.net/alumni/display_class.aspx?y=1993
319. Quite funny that that comes from the Guardian who regularly pull comments they don’t like. I recall reading that posting about which public school a Guardian journalist attended is one of the topics that is most frequently deleted.
331. And boy oh boy did those kids know how to party.
227. Has the Smearbot ever given any indication of the extent of his educational achievements?
Based on his incomprehension of the apostrophe, general credulity, and high time preference (lie today because it feels good even though it will be exposed tomorrow), I’d say smearbot was still in the sixth form.
341 It is. The Daily Mail has never posted a comment by ChristinaD either apparently.
I do admire the DT for posting live - almost all the rest don’t.
#10 spinning looking at possibility of televising Lobby briefing, as Gordo thinks media is against him and not getting opportunity to get message across. Chances of that?
I see Gordon is wearing a black tie again.
335. Thanks for making me laugh at loud in the office. Now everyone knows I’m not working!
Actually, I seriously better sign off and do some now.
BYE!
341 - It’s why I got banned from posting on CiF.
345 As a man who has done 2 press conference in 4 months??
349 - The thing is if they did, you know it would go pear shape and then ditched asap.
Is William Hague a Mysteron ?
351: Mysteron or Mekon?
351 “This is the voice of the Mysterons” wouldn’t have been so scary with broad Yorkshire accent.
342 The more dissolute parents gave their children names like Zerubabbel, Aholiab, Abimelech, and Melchizedek.
Cameron out-tractor stating Gordo.
331 - Going further back in time, medieval personages often got epithets. Notger the Stammerer and Einar the Paunch-shaker spring to mind. I did think about using one of those two as my internet name when I first started off.
322. I once met a Singaporean lady called Fanny Pong, a bloke called Roger Hawes and a Turkish gentleman called Arman Mustafa Kunt.
352 Check out his tie
Seems to be Leader of the Opposition Questions again.
Leaks!!!!!!
‘Gordo thinks media is against him and not getting opportunity to get message across’
Resorting to that line is as clear a sign of desperation as you can get. The scale of Brown’s delusion and paranoia is quite remarkable.
Gordo asking Cameron questions…..
Oh dear, I think he wish he hadn’t. Cameron is armed with stats left, right and centre.
oh my giddy aunt
Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of losing it!
Oh dear - another leaked memo - and Gordon changes the subject to policy, drrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
Ho ho ho, Gordo accusing Cameron of “losing it”…Hmm, who had a break down because somebody was nasty about him and asked difficult questions.
361: Infamy, infamy!!
Cameron lost it?
Oh hilarious, the reason a handful have qualified for the Home Owners Rescue scheme is that no one needs to use it!
HHAHAHAAHHAHAHAH
Gordon Brown’s strategy pretty much is “I’m right, you’re wrong” isn’t it?
Cameron looks rattled.
Cast I-Ron makes a re-appearence.
367 - No, Brown thinks he did though.
Unqualified win for Brown.
Amazing!
370 - Are you watching it on the radio?
Oh god, Gordo is back on “NO CUTS”…..
Mr I. Ron is back, whoever he is.
The Tories are against SureStart - erm another lie.
Yes, who is this “Cast-Eye” Ron chap?
Gabble @ 373 - You are worse than a Dalek.
373 - Watching on BBC Parliament, you can see Denis MacShane on his blackberry.
373
So it looks like we are back to “Labour investment vs Tory Cuts”. We all know who wins on that.
I see Gordo lied again, Cameron against Sure Start…
370. Yes he was clearly outdebated by the bloke shouting wrong.
I once went to an Easter Sunday service, with a friend, in the posh church on Fifth Avenue New York.
We did it just for a gas, to see High Manhattan Society at prayer. As the service began, and we were sitting devoutly in the crowded pews, with all the rich Wasp-y New Yorkers, my friend silently passed me the Order of Service pamphlet.
It said “we would like to thank several parishioners for assistance for this Easter service, in particular, the flowers were gonated my Mister Kermit T Kuck.”
Kermit T Kuck.
I started laughing even though I was desperate not to laugh - this was the most fashionable church in New York on the holiest day of the year, and packed to the gills with billionaire Episcopalians - but the fact I wasn’t meant to laugh made it worse. You know what I mean.
Then my friend started laughing but trying not to laugh. We cracked. We spent the first half of the entire service with hassocks in our mouths, tears streaming down our cheeks.
I wondered after if I had imagined such a ludicrous name. But no. a bit of Googling shows he really existed.
http://www.nytimes.com/1983/06/15/business/business-people-monarch-machine-tool-loses-chief-executive.html
Thankyou, Kermit, for giving me one of the funniest moments of my life.
Gordo losing it and accusing Camo of losing it was classic - as was Dave’s reaction as he prevented himself doubling up in hysterics!
Did we just witness a planted question on war memorials? Are there no depths Labour won’t plumb?
At last Clegg is allowed to speak without jeering from Labour backbenchers.
#302 “It would herald a British league though and probably the end of separate national teams.”
Why would it end the separate Scottish national team?. Cardiff City and Swansea playing English teams has not had that effect.
If in fact it did due to pressure from other countries, you would be amazed how many Scots would vote for independence simply to keep the national football team.
er, “donated”. Not…. *gonated*. Oh dear. lol. Still, you are all watching PMQs so it don’t matter.
Gordon plays “savage cuts” back to Clegg.
That was not a wise term to use.
I had a very similar experience but not to do with names - I went to the Guggenheim Museum in Venice or was it Florence?
Anyway - it was full of statues with balance problems due to massive p3nises - 300% of the size of the model.
I was crying with laughter whilst everyone else rubbed their goaties and chins thoughtfully.
Although Clegg needs to work on the way he asks his question, that was an interesting line he took. Gordon wibbled.
Brown in control of the House. They’re on his side. I can’t remember anything quite like it, for Brown.
I thought the Guggenheim Musuem was in Bilbao?
392
Good. Brown in place is what the tories want.
Gordo really is detached from reality.
Presented with a letter with 25 mistakes, he flat out denies there are any mistakes. Presented with his own treasury figures, he flat out denies any cuts. Presented with a leaked document sent to Mandy spelling out the cuts to be made, he flat out denies them.
Very dangerous and worrying for the PBR. Just got to hope Eyebrows doesn’t cave in.
393 There’s more than one - http://www.guggenheim-venice.it/
It’s her house I think.
392: Awwww bless.
“Brown in control of the House. They’re on his side. I can’t remember anything quite like it, for Brown.”
*cough*
392 - MacGabble you better get off the Crackberry, before the Hobbit strikes you down!
PMQs Elderly Labour MP asks for a promise in the Queen’s speech to protect the elderly…. Should he have not declared an interest?
“he flat out denies any cuts.”
And we know there are cuts happening. It makes him look utterly dishonest and untrustworthy.
390 “statues with balance problems due to massive p3nises - 300% of the size of the model”
Pah! Call that a willy?
I can’t see anything that Gordon said today that’d make a good 6 o’clock news snippet.
After all these years - wouldn’t he have mastered this by now?
Stand out piece from PMQs was the fact that Brown flat out refused to answer questions on forthcoming cuts despite leaked memo. People will see through it and they know that Brown can’t admit it. How can they trust anyone who won’t be straight with them?
Does Gordon get advance look at the questions???? Every time he’s asked one, he reads out an answer.
FFS ELLIOTT MORLEY!!!
The Cast-Iron Liar being mocked at will by Brown.
Is the speaker on a mission to call out the major troughers today?
First Andrew Mackay and now Elliot Morley
403 - His approach to PMQ’s now seems to be to shout “WRONG” as many times as possible, whatever is asked. It is like questioning a magic 8 ball that has malfunctioned!
40 I wonder if Gordo will have to suffer the embarassment next PMQ’s of having his manifest errors of today thrown back at him…
Again, asked a question on Grimsby manufacturing and he has a prepared answer. WTF.
Two years for Tom Wise for £39,000.
I do hope that hasn’t spoiled Elliot Morley’s day.
Re Mustapha Kunt, letter from 1943
“My Dear Reggie,
In these dark days man tends to look for little shafts of light
that spill from Heaven. My days are probably darker than yours, and
I need, my God I do, all the light I can get. But I am a decent
fellow, and I do not want to be mean and selfish about what little
brightness is shed upon me from time to time. So I propose to share
with you a tiny flash that has illuminated my sombre life and tell
you that God has given me a new Turkish colleague whose card tells
me that he is called Mustapha Kunt.
We all feel like that, Reggie, now and then, especially when
Spring is upon us, but few of us would care to put it on our cards.
It takes a Turk to do that.
Sir Archibald Clerk Kerr
H.M. Ambassador”
From the Spectator:
“Brown says he doesn’t believe the figures which show that 300,000 of the poorest in society will lose out so that the Treasury could save £175m.
Clegg says that’s funny because they’re his figures”
Clearly a man on top of his game and in control of the House…….
407 - Gabble, you must be a walking colostomy bag
I suspect this will be viewed as a win for Cameron. The memo and Gordon’s refusal to accept cuts and generally be even vaguely close to reality is what stood out.
The soundbites of the leaders are all that matters. ‘Control of the House’ or whatever crap Gabble wants to spout has no impact on the public. PMQs is not that relevant, really, to the vast majority of people.
411 Actually Morley is MP for Scunthorpe - not Grimsby. He had to expand it include Scunthorpe to cover up his mistake.
406 Plato. I think you missed FFS MR JULIE KIRKBRIDE!!!
373, 392, 407 etc.
Yes, very good! I spoofed Gabble at 337 and, not to be outdone, Gabble is now spoofing himself!
I see Gordon is going for the ‘courage, bravery…of our troops’ is Gordon’s new soundbite.
I foresee an open goal for the Sun when they find someone who complains…
Bizarre reaction from McGabble. Don’t you understand that this is exactly the kind of transparently disingenuous bluster from Brown that so effectively turns the electorate off? Ah well, your leader, your future.
Perhaps Gabble is Lloyd Evans.
416. And therefore widely known as “the man who put the chump into Scunthorpe”.
417
408 Scream. Backbenchers are called according to ballot.
“Elliot Morley with a plant about the fiscal stimulus and how it has helped manufacturing jobs in Grimsby. The Spectator has obtained an FOI request on this and the results are intriguing, more later.”
Ooh…..
424 - Ah yes, i’d forgotten about that. Just seemed jarring. I would have thought those two would have tried to keep a low profile.
Wonder how long we are going to have to suffer I. Ron Cast and “WRONG on..” in every answer? It is like the “Do-nothing” approach, in one PMQ’s, maybe two, it might actually mean something, be a bit of a hit, but 2-3 months later when he was still blustering on with “do nothing” it was completely ineffective (only effective in making Gordo look like an wally).
It’s difficult to say your opponent is wrong when they are quoting your figures, but Brown, shamelessly, attempts to do so.
Now it’s over, I think Gordon walked into another trap. Again.
Dave told him he had the memo, read from it, then asked the question. Gordon denied.
How long before the ‘clarification’ from the PM’s spokesman???
427 - Personally, I can see Gordon Brown using them all
“I give an Cast Eye-Ron guarantee, that the do nothing Tories will cut everything”
Adam Boulton on crack “a clear victory for Brown”, our Adam loves Browns made up employment tractor stats!
387. Re. the Scots football team, why would people be so desperate to maintain an institution that leads to endless humiliations?
I note the old Folkestone graveyard stalker hasn’t visited Sweeney Todd recently.
431 Wait until next week, when Boulton has to report on Brown’s “humiliating climbdown”. The unravelling always takes a little time with Brown. But unravel it will.
What an odd PMQs, Mackay and Morley plus Brown seemingly fired up and Dave weak.
431 - Does seem to be certain portions of the media have been pushing, Gordo is great, well not that bad, this week, while completely ignoring the elephant in the room, that he can’t stop lying!
279. Plato - “Farage says UKIP are fielding 550 candidates at GE”
This is important. A potential thread topic for Mike?
392 ‘Brown in control of the House.
Gabble, Brown’s only just in control of his bladder. How are his weepy eyes today?
437. But 549 are going to be paper candidates…
Speccy Take,
Verdict: Brown is caught in a self-imposed Catch 22. He cannot admit that cuts are being planned for next year because that would be a recognition of economic mismanagement on his part and break his vote winning conceit about investment. But his credibility is being demolished by a succession of leaks that prove he’s been planning cuts prior to the last budget. Cameron, and Clegg, pointed these out with real drive and Brown had no answer. The opposition won hands down.
Message for the GENERALS!!!!!!
The government line is that they never turn down one of your requests. Get in the request for helicopters now. In writing.
439. runnymede - “But 549 are going to be paper candidates…”
So what? They are still going to have an effect on the outcome of a significant number of seats.
If PM Dave is not worried, he ought to be.
427
It is because the man is limited, in so many ways. Once a response is programmed in, it needs surgery to shift it. Hence the return to Labour Savings v. Tory Cuts
“a succession of leaks that prove he’s been planning cuts prior to the last budget.”
Given this, how anyone can say he’s got the best of a debate is beyond me. Generally, when you have been caught out lying, you lose.
OGH What about a thread on the Green party for a change and its impact at the GE? It has set up more groups in constituencies since 2005 so may be planning to have more candidates stand? It is not just Caroline Lucas in Brighton. It could also have a big impact where the LDs have a small majority or are chasing a seat?
If you want to know who won PMQ’s, BBC ticker
LATEST:
David Cameron uses a leaked memo to accuse Labour of planning cuts in 2010
440 Tory house rag calls it for the Tories. You really wonder why they even bother.
447 - Errh, Speccy haven’t called it for the Tories for several weeks.
re 445. I’ve got something in hand on that.
Iain Martin at his WSJ blog - For Obama, It’s Decision Time on Afghanistan
“You really wonder why they even bother”
Wait for Lloyd Evans to post. He’ll call it for Brown. He always does.
447 - you mean like the surprise of Gabble calling it for his beloved leader, before ducking back to the bunker
383. “the flowers were gonated my Mister Kermit T Kuck”
What?
Did he rub his testicles against the bouquet before handing them to the priest?
445 Write one, TC.
I’m sure OGH will be pleased to publish it.
451 - Brown could soil himself at a difficult question and start eating the remains with a plastic spoon and Lloyd Evans would say how superbly Brown ducked Cameron’s tricks by doing something totally unexpected.
PMQs:
Brown did better than usual today. Yes, it was nonsense, but he seemed more at ease and relaxed. However, he utterly failed to counter any of Cameron’s points. He did, though, do better against Clegg the Savage.
448, that’s because Lloyd Evans just about never calls it for Cameron. Blackburn did it today, I think.
448 Yeah right, they’ve been raging lefties. Why it was only this time last week they tried their smear story on a nonagenarian. Nice.
452 Precisely.
456 He’s using dead soldiers as a defence - makes a change from small chidren.
Perhaps he’ll do dwarves next.
Celtic and Rangers in the premier league. Good time to be a hoolie.
445. Good idea - we have trawled over UKIP quite enough already. The impact of a bigger Green vote on the other hand is a genuinely new potential factor and IMHO far more interesting from a betting perspective as well.
458 What was the nonagenarian smear?
Cameron was pretty poor today, but Gordo’s inability to a) ever answer any question and b) inability to stop lying even when faced with the evidence means that as usual the #10 Press Team are probably going to have to spend the rest of the day “clarifying” some of the “facts” and denials that Gordo spouted. I really feel sorry for them, they know come Wednesday a new s##t storm is always on the horizon and likely heading their way (once in a while the storm changes course or breaks up before it reaches land, but those occasions are few and far between).
449 thanks Mike, looks like the Greens fielded 202 candidates at GE 2005.
http://www.greenparty.org.uk/files/election/ge05-confirmed-candidates-list.html
Anyone read what their plans are for the next GE? 250? 300? 350?
454 Peter the Punter - I do not know enough about them, so I was looking for some insight.
This article seems to indicate that the Greens are setting their sights on the Lib Dems losing seats.
http://tinyurl.com/yglz8wk
Brown sounded more cohesive today - but the rhetoric is still empty. The mortgage support answer was ludicrous, and I suspect that after the leaked document is disseminated, yet another PMQs will fall apart.
That said, Cameron did look very red - and one of the Labour backbenchers heckled him very loudly for it. It isn’t a good look.
And Mackay and Morley? At least one, and perhaps both, should be in prison. In many way’s Margaret Moran’s way of just disappearing is more dignifying for her constituents.
456
“but he seemed more at ease and relaxed”
From yesterday?, when ‘Toenails’ painted a picture of a man disintegrating under his burdens?
Wth?
445. TC - “It is not just Caroline Lucas in Brighton. It could also have a big impact where the LDs have a small majority or are chasing a seat?”
Agreed.
Same applies in several Glasgow and Edinburgh seats.
Mr Dale makes reference to a Simpson’s quip from Gordon
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
What did I miss?
383 I simply couldn’t take anyone seriously who had the name, Kermit.
“Gonated” is rather good. It reminds me of a typo in a Parish magazine I once read, “A large group of Church members fathered in the Churchyard”; the intended word was “gathered”.
Guardian calls it a draw. I have to agree with that on the initial exchanges. The leaked memo could give it a long tail and would shift towards a Tory win, but difficult to judge yet. Glad to see Clegg being allowed to speak. I have to say Speakers over the years have been poor on third/fourth parties (I remember Owen being drowned out constantly).
GB did sound more “up for it” than normal, but with the first bit of marginally positive press about him in the last year or so I’m not surprised. The PoliticsHome poll should a net 24% prepared to be more positive about him.
On a further issue the whole “cast iron” jibe might be a bad idea for him. Every time they bring it up, someone remembers a certain manifesto commitment that was dumped. Will play badly.
Parmjit Dhanda is on R5L. He is going to be a rising star I think if he can hold onto his seat. He needs to back off the attack dog mode. He clearly has the abilities to be a thoughtful contributor.
466, Brown actually made a joke and laughed. He didn’t shake in fear, he didn’t stammer and stutter. I’m not saying he became Cicero overnight, just that it was less bad than usual. The content was still nonsense, but he was calmer than usual.
Brown is so useless at communicating that Mandelson is taking over the weekly news conferences. Brown is a technocrat, how did the man ever become PM?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/11/mandelson-tipped-as-information-minister
Dave is weak on economics sadly
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23767982-king-rounds-on-cameron-for-trying-to-interfere-in-quantitative-easing.do
459 - He’s using dead soldiers as a defence - makes a change from small chidren.
Thats a silly thing to say.
I thought you’d improved a bit since you stopped channelling your builder.
459 - Never said anything of the sort, simply said it isn’t a given that the Speccy calls it for the Tories and certainly not “hands down”. However, we all know their political leaning, but no more invalid than posting say the Guardian’s take on PMQ’s, which I am sure somebody else will do.
R5 using Cameron’s ‘almost 1m youth unemployed - record high’ as lead story.
R5 lead on PMQs has Cameron “1 in 5 of youth” and backed by news story. Now taking the lead over the “slight increase” that started the news earlier.
TSE: how about Julia, Amelia, Francesca (tho’ Frankie a bit off), Laura or Caroline, Stephanie, Madeleine, Monica, Alexandra?
Good luck. Also remember that once they’re born you’ll take one look at them and decide that they don’t “look” like the names you’ve chosen so have some in reserve.
473
475 / 476 - Ties into the leaked memo over cuts in training, which Gordo is denying. Oh dear….
Just got in from work (which is already annoying me for a number of reasons) and I was utterly appalled that they didn’t signal or observe 2 minutes silence today. Everyone was chuntering away as normal.
465 - What is going on with this Cameron red face thing its been referred to a couple of times recently, including by Cameron.
Brown looks like a ghost and Dave looks like a Swan Vesta.
Perhaps they need a break.
480 - Was well respected on here, other than a certain poster.
468 - It’s reference to Alan Simpson, a left wing critic of Brown, who supported Brown’s Tobin’s tax plans. Brown said it’s the first time he’s agreed with me etc.
“Mandelson is taking over the weekly news conferences.”
Mandy = Comical Ali
Oh yes please!
472: just when you wonder what our comedy government will come up with next, Brown makes Mandelson his ‘Iraqi Information Minister’.
‘Comical Mandy’ - you couldn’t make it up…
471
I don’t doubt you, it’s just some more ’strangeness’ from a strange man.
461 runnymede - Yes, it is certainly possible that the change since 2005 towards the Greens may be more important than the change in the UKIP vote.
You often see people making the mistake of saying ‘UKIP will take votes off the Tories’, when the question they should be asking is ‘Will UKIP take more or fewer votes off the Tories than they did last time?’
The results in the European 2004 and 2009 elections show UKIP almost unchanged, but the Green up by over a third.
483 Thanx Mr Eagles.
473 I’m not sure that the words “The decision about asset purchases is one for the Bank of England and we will make it in terms of our judgements on what is necessary ” can really be construed as being much of an attack on Cameron.
466: ‘From yesterday?, when ‘Toenails’ painted a picture of a man disintegrating under his burdens?’
I suspect Brown has got carried away with the smidgens of sympathy he received in the last couple of days and believes he’s suddenly adored once more by the grateful masses. Not good. If Brown starts to preen and swagger again it’ll be back to square one.
464 Fairy nuff, TC.
It surprises me that more posters here don’t try their hand at thread-writing. A lot of the posts would make good thread pieces in themselves.
Of course, you set yourself up to be shot at, but if we had more people trying their hands at authorship, more people would understand what is involved and that in turn might deter some of the silly sniping at those who do make the effort.
466.”456
“but he seemed more at ease and relaxed”
From yesterday?, when ‘Toenails’ painted a picture of a man disintegrating under his burdens?
Wth?”
Its called playing possum, worked a treat for Bob Ainsworth when he was up against Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight recently. Hope you had a box of tissues handy if watched the Beeb teatime news on this, not a dry eye in the house.
Comical Ali
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s27Oq5ot0ZI
The Greens will do significantly better in Southwark, Lambeth, Lewisham, Greenwich, Camden etc. Not enough to win a seat, or even affect more than the odd seat, but come the GE after lots of Labour MPs will be looking over their shoulders at the Greens.
491 - I have no idea how our host manages to produce three threads a day, seven days a week. Even allowing for guest posters, he still produces at least 15 threads a week and usually more.
489 - I think it relates to Daves daft comment that he would stop QE.
490. Stark Dawning: “If Brown starts to preen and swagger again it’ll be back to square one.”
He didn’t “preen and swagger”. He just looked ‘normal’, for once.
It shows he has it in him.
A more relaxed and natural Brown could easily win the next GE.
JackW will point to my cynicism again but the Broken Brown of yesterday seemed much recovered today.
BBC R5 have just shifted to a Glasgow ‘Correspondent’.
Would Labour be in reciept of any last-minute polling to give Brown’s ego a boost?
497 - If that is the case, maybe you should have a quiet word in his ear and get him out and about to meet real members of the public.
That was interesting.
I actually watched PMQ today. Reading the Tories on here you would have thought that Brown was destroyed by Cameron, whereas to me he looked to be pretty much in charge of the exchange and actually had a good half an hour.
I always knew our herd was one eyed, but I did not realise the extent to which this is the case.
497 Would you take £100 on that outcome?
490. Very true. Brown’s an idiot, and always was an idiot, and always will be an idiot, and nothing’s going to change that.
The only thing that HAS changed is that yesterday, for the first time, he got SOME SYMPATHY FOR BEING AN IDIOT. This sympathy will probably make the Prime Minister behave idiotically.
He’s an idiot.
502 at evens.
495. antifrank: “I have no idea how our host manages to produce three threads a day…”
If he could put aside his irrational hatred of Labour, he could probably double his potential subjects.
tim
I have no idea if Cameron did/didn’t say he would stop QE. But if he did, why would it be daft?
“A more relaxed and natural Brown could easily win the next GE.
by Gabble November 11th, 2009 at 4:12 pm”
Alternatively, a giraffe the size of a beetle could run under a stoat.
501 - Huh, have you read the posts, a lot of people are saying that Cameron wasn’t particular great, Gordo better than usual. The problem is as always Gordo has just told a load of whoppers, and they will most likely come and bite him in the arse.
491 Peter the Punter November 11th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I may well submit something to Mike but not on the Greens.
Off topic With Farage saying the other 4 UKIP Leadership candidates are not up to the job (3 of them fellow MEPs) could we see further splits in UKIP?
505 ‘Irrational hatred..’
491. I’d love to try. But I’m afraid I don’t have anything particularly special to say.
496, 506 This is what Cameron said “Sometime soon [QE] will have to stop in the end, printing money leads to inflation.”
Which is no more than a truism.
506 - Because it would involve legislation to reverse the independence of the Bank Of England, and as far as I know thats not Tory policy.
505 - Why do you consider it irrational? The only rational reaction to such an incompetent, authoritarian, money-pissing Government is hatred.
501 - Brown came across better than normal and definitely looked more up for the fight than I have seen in quite a while, so to that extent Gabble has something resembling a point.
Unfortunately this transmogrification was purchased at the price of denial of the facts and arguments put to him, which will probably end up being more expensive in total over the next 24 hours (see BBC ticker already). Plus ça change.
505 - “If he could put aside his irrational hatred of Labour, he could probably double his potential subjects”
Smearing Mike Smithson . . on his site . .novel?
512 But Cameron never said he’d prevent quantitative easing, according to the article in question.
On the Old Firm entry into the premiership,the main problem will be Europe.Neither Cardiff nor Swansea can play in UEFA competitions as they play in the English league.As a result Wales is represented by amateur and semi-pro League of Wales sides.Presumably the same ban will apply if Rangers and Celtic joined.
505. Gabble: I often wonder; do you realise how ridiculous you look to everyone else?
Even the Labour posters find you embarassing.
507. lol.
Guardian to lose another 100 jobs.
It’s a very popular and well read publication, you know.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/11/guardian-news-and-media
517 - WHo knows, it seems he’s a bit confused.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aLcwdtYv6TOg
Cameron Backs Away From Call to End Quantitative Easing ‘Soon’
Sean F
Cheers. Nothing at all daft about that statement. In fact, pleased to hear a senior politico finally accept that risk. King himself is now starting to talk about the risk of inflation.
tim
You’ve been called. Cameron wasn’t being daft and you know it. If parliament decides to overule the BoE, there is already legislation in place to do so. In fact, some were saying back at the start of the bust that this should be invoked to cut interest rates if the MPC didn’t.
I’ll dig out the necessary link if you persist lying.
519 - As you know I’m one of Browns biggest (rational) critics on here but it was clear he was more fired up today than for a while, Dave was a bit weak.
You may like to look upthread at the knee jerking herd before criticising too much
521 There’s no confusion that I can see. Cameron’s original statement was about as contentious as saying “The Sun rises in the East.”
re 480 well why should they? We’ve observed Remembrance Sunday for many a year. This extra remembrance we’re supposed to have today is in fact only due to the Sun from a few years ago. We have one commemoration on the Sunday or Armistice day, but not two.
521 If the best you can manage is “who knows” why do you post (3 times in the last half hour) that Mervyn King has slapped Cameron down?
497: ‘He didn’t “preen and swagger”. He just looked ‘normal’, for once.’
Okay. But have a word with Gordon and tell him ‘normal’ is the way he should be playing it from now on. No more of this ‘Saved the world’, ‘was born for this moment’ vaingloriousness. Brown must cut an introspective, meek and vaguely tragic figure from now on - hunched, scraping his way through the months ahead until the deserved ignominy of electoral annihilation. That way he’ll keep his dignity intact, and he might even save one or two of his colleagues their seats.
522 - See the link at 522 Cameron has backed down from the original position you’re defending.
“People read rather too much into that,” Cameron told a press conference in London today. “I’m a great believer in an active monetary policy. How and when it’s brought to an end will be a matter for the Bank of England.”
519.
You have to feel sorry for Gabble.. It can’t be easy living in that nursing home with people urinating everywhere and people with memory loss like himself ! It is best to go easy on him, poor soul still thinks Callaghan is PM…..
528 that means he had backed down from the position that you said (3 times) that King was attacking.
Oh dear…
http://www.torybear.com/2009/11/its-official-bnp-have-grouping-in-ep.html
Oracle,
since you’re about - I think you misinterpreted my post the other day about a game of chance and skill played with cards. I wasn’t attacking the idea of nosebleeds players, merely astonishment at their excellence, willingness to gambool, work ethic and youth. I’m slack jawed in wonder, not disgusted.
I think you’re wrong about HS play though. There aren’t many “casual” players online above 200/400 - esp now Laliiberte is out of the picture. The people who get picked off tend to be more midstakes players taking a shot - and I think most ofthe nosebleeds players are staying in poker for a while or taking profits and investing- I can’t imagine even running a hedge fund would hold much appeal to the Dangs, Galfond or Dwan, though who knows.
521 tim - Not at all. Everyone agrees that QE will have to end soon, but exactly when is a judgement to be made in the light of the economic data. As you know, the BOE recently changed their mind on this, indicating that it might have to be continued for longer than previously signalled, in the light of poorer-than-expected economic performance:
“It was very important that he did not rule out further asset purchases,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC in London and a former Bank of England official. “That could suggest one or two people wanted to do more last week. The bank’s been surprised on the downside several times on this recession. King’s very conscious he doesn’t want to rule out further action.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aEtv5sd8Tj50
514 antifrank - flawlessly aligned nail / head interface
521 tim
He is not the only one it seems.
Check your facts.
BoE QE requires initial mandate from CoE and subsequent authorisation to extend beyond preagreed limits.
All regardless of Cameron’s current position.
Gabs launched off into the twilight zone again I see.
So Cameron states the obvious, that the QE can’t go on forever. Labour and their pet economist Blanchflower then make ludicrous claims, so Cameron again states the obvious.
Where is the ‘daft’ or ‘confused’?
re 505. I don’t have a hatred of Labour but I do deeply dislike your Mr. Brown and have done for many years. To achieve power through a systematic process of character assassination against potential rivals for more than a decade is bad enough - he’s also a huge electoral liability for his party.
I’m a great fan of people like the ex-Norwich North MP, Ian Gibson, who unlike 313 of of supine colleagues in the PLP had the balls to stand up to the Brown gang.
Brown has destroyed your party Gabble and you will be out of power for at least a decade.
530 So far then, we have no evidence that King was attacking Cameron, or that Cameron had originally said anything other than a blinding statement of the obvious, or that Cameron is backing down from anything.
Perhaps there is some sort of Kremlinology that enables some journalists to read something else into a series of extremely bland comments.
523 - The inclusion of the word ‘rational’ is debatable, but otherwise your post is a fair reflection of today’s PMQs as far as Brown and Cameron’s performances are concerned. But what will be the impact of that leak?
530. Crikey. The entire Guardian-Observer Travel section is just being *closed*. Or incorporated into the magazine.
The Guardian deserves to die, it is a ghost of what it was, it is the anxious and creeping spectre of liberal journalism, it is the emblem in its silliness of the decline of the left, it is a nasty unremovable stain on the bedsheets of British media, and it is a pompous genuflection of bien pensant wank turned into a means of destroying trees, but it is still a newspaper. And as such, and being a journalist, I mourn its imminent passing.
Only kidding. F*ck off and die The Guardian. Hah.
533
I confess I didn’t know that. Thought the BoE were free to act tbh.
Is Mandelson really going to get yet another ministry, “minister for information”? Minitrue would be appropriate name.
533 - Have I made a small uncharacteristic error or was it Dave, ah well, the story seems to be running.
What are the preagreed limits?
David Cameron was rounded on by Bank Governor Mervyn King after the Opposition leader criticised the Bank’s money-printing programme, saying in his Conference speech last month it would ‘lead to inflation’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1226945/King-defends-quantitative-easing-decisions-as.html
Oracle,
since you’re about - I think you misinterpreted my post the other day about a game of chance and skill. I wasn’t attacking the idea of nosebleeds players, merely astonishment at their excellence, willingness to play, work ethic and youth. I’m slack jawed in wonder, not disgusted.
I think you’re wrong about HS though. There aren’t many “casual” players above 200/400 - esp now Laliiberte is out of the picture. The people who get picked off tend to be more midstakes players taking a shot - and I think most ofthe nosebleeds players are staying in p0ker for a while or taking profits and investing- I can’t imagine even running a hedge fund would hold much appeal to the Dangs, Galfond or Dwan, though who knows.
538, Green to be re-arrested? Oh no, it’s Clarke’s department. Ken Clarke to be arrested for wearing a loud shirt in a built-up area. (Cool points for those who get the reference).
523. Was that directed at me tim?
I haven’t seen PMQs - nor have I commented on it. I have no idea how Brown performed today. But that’s not the point.
Criticising Cameron and praising Brown isn’t taboo on this site.
It’s just the ridiculous thinly veiled insults, paranoia and “analysis” which Gabble - who mysteriously seems to pop every week around PMQ time - comes out with that I find laughable.
I’d have thought that even you would find him an embarassment tim.
“David Cameron was rounded on by Bank Governor Mervyn King after the Opposition leader criticised the Bank’s money-printing programme, saying in his Conference speech last month it would ‘lead to inflation’.
Following the most upbeat quarterly inflation report from the Bank since the [moderate*] recession began in April last year, King said he and his colleagues would decide on monetary policy.”
* My assessment
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1226945/King-defends-quantitative-easing-decisions-as.html
tim and Gabble
What did King say about Cameron. There’s nothing in that link.
505.
I said did you take your tablets ….. thats better have a lie down now and STFU !
Cameron wouldnt know what QE actually means, the man is just the front for the party. If he took a moment to look at economists he would realise they are worse than politicians for changing their minds and then blaming everyone else when they mess it up!
QE is actually a stealth tax on savers, its us who have had to pay to recover the economy as each pound we saved now has to compete with the 200bn printed.
Using QE now has set a precedent for the future, investors will now demand higher returns to invest in the UK to cover the risk and the first sign of trouble will see them escape and the pound crash.
Andrew Grice - A new Gordon Brown?
http://todayinpolitics.independentminds.livejournal.com/40692.html
I agree that presentationally Gordon Brown was actually good today - aided by the fact that Cameron wasn’t.
However, I’m fairly convinced that the facts are not in Gordon’s favour… interesting to see how the evening bulletins cover it.
543 - I object to this statement,
“A small army of workoholic multi-millionaire online gambling degenerate teenagers. That’s what the world is breeding.”
degenerate, no, gamblers, they would argue strongly again, no. Workoholic, yes, but for many, not solely due to cards and their various other projects.
“I can’t imagine even running a hedge fund would hold much appeal to the Dangs, Galfond or Dwan, though who knows.”
There are numerous names that that already have as well as turning to other things like law, real estate, film production etc.
The Gabble English Dictionary.
Moderate (adjective, noun):
1. deeper than anything since the 1930s
2. longest on record
3. still not as bad as, uh, ah, erm, Ireland
546: Gabble is clearly tims slighty more deranged version of tim, who exists in a parallel dimension offset by 3minutes.
498.”JackW will point to my cynicism again but the Broken Brown of yesterday seemed much recovered today.”
Ted, I still cannot get over the BBC evening news coverage of this issue yesterday. ITN and C4 were more sensitive and balanced in their coverage. But the BBC ladled on the sympathy with a trowel, they were had. This story came to end because the mother in question brought it to an end cleanly and clearly. Two years on we still have a PM who is obviously totally unsuited and unfit for the job he is in, if he then comes out of PMQ’s still steady on his
feet its a win for him.
He wrote a letter to a bereaved mother that should never have left his desk in that state, he then phoned the mother and that the contents of that conversation would defy belief without the transcript to back it up. On both occasions Brown was in control of the agenda and initiated the contact, a simple apology at the start would have closed this whole story down. But no, it went nuclear and that lady was being vilified by the end of it. Only story in town was that of her approaching the Sun and them using her.
But in fact, he and his government then used that mother to go after the Sun big time, and many on here and elsewhere fell for it hook, line and sinker. How soon we forget Major phoning Kelvin MacKenzie after Black Wednesday, or him being told by that editor of the Sun that their was a big bucket of manure on his desk, and which he was going to pour over Major’s head tomorrow’s edition.
Benedict Brogan on his Telegraph blog hit it on the nail yesterday.
Spare me the pity for Gordon Brown
“One Downing Street person suggested hopefully that this might prove to be a typical example of “when the Sun gets it wrong, it gets it wrong big”. Labour MPs imagine this might be a turning point that produces a sudden wave of public sympathy to change the game in overtime.”
” * Regardless of its patent sincerity, the letter should never have been sent, either by him or his staff. We may deplore Mrs Janes’ decision to make a public meal out of an unintended slight, but she is entitled to and as with any statement he issues he must always have mind to how it might appear if made public. Mr Brown has been in the business too long to be excused the kind of petulant amateurism that characterises so much of what he does.
* Mr Brown wanted to be Prime Minister. He volunteered for this gig. He had a decade to learn the pressures of the job. He should have studied the job description more carefully rather than spend his time trying to hound his predecessor from office.
* Mr Brown is not blind. It is admirable that he has reached the top despite suffering limited vision, but as he assured us only recently his eyesight is stable and he can still read. If his eyesight impairs his ability to lead, he should step aside. If not, it’s time his friends stopped pleading it as an excuse.
* Mr Brown spent much of the past 15 years or so sucking up to the Sun. He helped it lay in to Tony Blair and whichever hapless Tory leader happened to be in its sights. He used it ruthlessly to do in potential rivals. If you ride the tiger…”
Bob Ainsworth certainly deployed this new tactic very successfully against Paxman recently. Even now, the old dog can still spin the lobby by garnering pity.
546 - Where is the acutal quote from King mentioning Cameron?
He actually in his usual clever way rounded on Brown & Darling mantiong that there needs to be fiscal tightening (Reducing Brown’s deficit which is the highest in the developed world).
“501 - Brown came across better than normal”
Perhaps he’s got a sneak preview of tomorrow’s Glasgow election result?
546. “Following the most upbeat quarterly inflation report from the Bank since the [moderate*] recession began in April last year, King said he and his colleagues would decide on monetary policy.”
* My assessment”
Let’s see who should we believe, Gabble or the Office for National Statistics? Hmmm that’s a tricky one.
I only heard half the exchanges, Brown was good for him as far as it goes . Didn’t answer any questions at all. We will see what the 10pm news broadcasts make of it…. thats what matters.
545 - I’m not responsible for any other posters contributions on here, although if you think I should be embarrassed by one other Labour supporter, can I ask you to take a couple of dozen of sub optimal posters on the opposition PB benches into consideration.
O this occasion Gabb;e had a point about Brown looking up for it and Dave being weak.
546. Why stop at moderate? Why isn’t it a “mild” recession Gabble?
C’mon. What other recessions are you comparing it to? What features does this one have that don’t make it a mild one Gabble?
DO TELL.
543 - I object to this statement,
“A small army of workoholic multi-millionaire online g_ambling degenerate teenagers. That’s what the world is breeding.”
degenerate, no, gamblers, they would argue strongly again, no. Workoholic, yes, but for many, not solely due to cards, rather their various other projects.
“I can’t imagine even running a hedge fund would hold much appeal to the Dangs, Galfond or Dwan, though who knows.”
There are numerous names that that already have, as well as turning to other things like law, real estate, film production etc.
501. Southam Observer
“I always knew our herd was one eyed, but I did not realise the extent to which this is the case.”
There is something almost too ironic about the sight of the left wing tim wannabees stampeding in unison and parrotting tim’s expression “herd” like a flock of bleating sheep.
550 - Every week I am told that Brown has done ok/good at PMQ’s but then Cameron’s comments lead the news like today ‘1 in 5 young out of work’. Surely if Brown has done so well his comments would lead the news, not Cameron’s?
Gabble - your assessment of the recession makes the rest of your point pointless. For the umpteenth time, this is the longest recession in post war history. The budget deficit is rising at the fastest rate outside of war time. One man was Chancellor and/or PM throughout this last government. That is while he will loose.
On the DM/ES - Quite how the ES/Mail is terming this a “rounding on” is beyond me. Sometimes you have to worry about the quality of our press. Notice there is no other mention in the Guardian (that I can find). Normally they can be relied upon to produce such negative press.
556: Or Gabble and Darling…or Gabble and Brown. On in fact Gabble and the entire world.
In fact, when everyone (and I mean everyone) thinks this has been a deep recession, even globally, then maybe that’s a little hint.
It’s not for dear old Gabble. Who I certainly hope id being paid to spurt out such insane mutterings and witterings.
“Why stop at moderate? Why isn’t it a “mild” recession Gabble?”
Perhaps, it’s because it’s the worst since records began?
529 ‘You have to feel sorry for Gabble.. It can’t be easy living in that nursing home’
I thought Gabble lurked in a garage that he calls an ‘office’ for taxpayer funding purposes.
Bank of England asset purchase facility
As a further step to increase the availability of corporate credit, by reducing the illiquidity of the underlying instruments, the Bank of England will set up an asset purchase programme implemented through a specially created fund. The Bank will be authorised by the Treasury to purchase high quality private sector assets, including paper issued under the CGS, corporate bonds, commercial paper, syndicated loans and a limited range of asset backed securities created in viable securitisation structures. The Treasury will authorise initial purchases of up to £50 billion, financed by the issue of Treasury bills. Given the scale of the programme, the Bank will be indemnified by the Treasury. This programme will come into effect from 2 February.
The programme also provides a framework for the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England to use asset purchases for monetary policy purposes should the MPC conclude that this would be a useful additional tool for meeting the inflation target. In such circumstances, the scale of the scheme could be expanded, a further announcement would be made.
Further details of the arrangements for the Asset Purchase Facility will be set out in an exchange of letters between the Chancellor and Governor before the end of January.
HM Treasury Statement 1 January 2009
Note that the $50 billion initial limit has long been extended.
562 - “Cameron’s comments lead the news”
Exactly, but the kids enjoy the sport so let them be.
542 It’s one of those stories where the headline actually bears no relation at all to the story.
The Guardian does run a wonderful website. Sadly, websites make very little money and therefore need small staffs. I can’t believe the Guardian website has a small staff since it is enormous.
The newspapers don’t sell very many copies and if the Tories get in and there are less non-jobs to stuff the pages with I can’t see how the Guardian can keep going in its current form.
I also don’t understand why Trinity produce two versions of the Sunday Mirror. What purpose does The People serve?
561. There are “tim wannabes”??
The concept is so deliciously and preciously absurd I am going to put it in a special ormolu box and gloat over it, late at night.
574: the internet is home to some very strange and wonderful people, more emphasis on the strange for the usual suspects on here.
569 Correction
$50 billion = £50 billion
Also QE is broader in concept than the asset purchase programme but similar delegations of power from the Treasury to the BoE apply to other elements.
New thread.
573 I and others forget that the People still exists.
It’s like the Daily Sketch or St James’ Gazette. I have never seen anyone with a copy. Is it in Morning Star territory?
Antifrank
You may care to note that I have joined you in your support for a Labour hold in Edinburgh North & Leith. It is now the only constituency to have two Labour votes, without opposition, from The Super Six.
Watch the price shorten.
573 - “What purpose does The People serve?”
Padding the bank balance of Peter Andre by libeling him?
573. I reckon the future will see a few newspaper “brands” survive, mainly published on the Net - with their paper equivalents just given away on a limited and truncated basis.
I predict the Mail, the Times, the Sunday Times, the Sun, and the FT will survive. Other than that, who knows. There must be room for one lefty equivalent and the Guardian is good online, but it relies way too much on Autowotsit and government job advertising (which will surely go as soon as the Tories reach power).
Perhaps the Guardian will survive in a straitened form, shorn of its wider ambitions, but as the authentic voice of the transatlantic liberal-left (it is a better paper than the leftish New York Times, for instance, in terms of inventiveness and humour).
The Express, both Mirrors, the People, the Mail on Sunday, the Observer, both Telegraphs (probably), both Independents (definitely) will cease to be.
Cruel but probable.
558. Do you think Brown will easily win the next election if he lightens up and that Mike Smithson has an irrational hatred of Labour?
C’mon tim. Don’t bu*llshit me.
Brown won, Cam lost it just like the Currant Bun!