The PB SUPER SIX Predictions - part 2
November 11th, 2009
Are they on the money or not?
This is the second part of the so-called “PB SUPER SIX PREDICTIONS - the general election seat bets from half a dozen of the leading political punters on the site.
They are Peter the Punter, Richard Nabavi, Peter from Putney, StJohn, AntiFrank and ScottP who between have got bets on in nearly ninety separate constituencies.
One of those on this evening’s list is Morley and Outwood - where I’ve punted quite heavily at good odds that Ed Balls will get ousted. I see the panel is split on this one. Yes a big swing is required but its considerably smaller than the one that saw Michael Portillo lose Enfield in Tony Blair’s great landslide.
In the coming months we’ll look at the seat markets time and time again for it’s here I think that the money can be made.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
thats more blue…
Close
A sea of blue
Ave It 09 will wet his pants!
536. Mike Smithson
The McBride smears were bad enough but you used your site to, wrongly, insinuate much worse and then use that as a basis to banish http://www.labourlist.org/ from your site.
‘Irrational’ is putting it mildly.
Best of luck, stjohn, Scott P and Mr. Smithson (that’s the host, not the horse
).
Intriguing to see the Morley & Outwood split.
P&L is quite interesting. I know tories who are fairly confident about their prospects there. I also know someone at Canary Wharf Group who has been told by people who should know, that it’s a straight Labour-Respect battle.
God I hope Balls loses. I’m saving a special bottle for that result.
4 You wait till you see Part 3! “Blue skies, nothing but blue skies, do I see….”
5 - You know you really don’t have to be here. I’m sure Mike will emulate Guido and offer you a full refund (that you might wish to donate to the English Collective of Pro$titutes)
5 - Gabble is Admiral Yamamoto and I claim my 5 yen.
FPT…..
Antifrank
You may care to note that I have joined you in your support for a Labour hold in Edinburgh North & Leith. It is now the only constituency to have two Labour votes, without opposition, from The Super Six.
Watch the price shorten.
I’m still waiting for Gabble to respond to my bet of 100 at evens that Labour will win the GE
5:You’re saying that OGH ’smeared’ McBride?
Is that even possible?
Gabble - Your wrong! Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
And wrong.
fpt
573. I reckon the future will see a few newspaper “brands” survive, mainly published on the Net - with their paper equivalents just given away on a limited and truncated basis.
I predict the Mail, the Times, the Sunday Times, the Sun, and the FT will survive. Other than that, who knows. There must be room for one lefty equivalent and the Guardian is good online, but it relies way too much on Autowotsit and government job advertising (which will surely go as soon as the Tories reach power).
Perhaps the Guardian will survive in a straitened form, shorn of its wider ambitions, but as the authentic voice of the transatlantic liberal-left (it is a better paper than the leftish New York Times, for instance, in terms of inventiveness and humour).
The Express, both Mirrors, the People, the Mail on Sunday, the Observer, both Telegraphs (probably), both Independents (definitely) will cease to be.
Cruel but probable.
And I look forward to the reaction of our resident LDs to the Winchester clean sweep. LD incumbancy is impossible to defeat. Your throwing your money away lads.
Best prices - Morley & Outwood
Labour 1/2 (PP)
Conservatives 2/1 (VC and Ladbrokes)
Independent 50/1 (VC and Ladbrokes)
Liberal Democrats 100/1 (PP and Ladbrokes)
7 Very interesting, Denmark.
I was born and brought up nearby and regularly drive through these days. When I learned it was a marginal, I could hardly believe it. Then I looked at the demographics, the odds, the previous results, and reached the conclusion it was a value bet.
I disagree about Respect. I think they are a busted flush. Nevertheless I would be extremely interested to hear more from your own local contacts.
16 - “LD incumbancy is impossible to defeat”
Unfortunate Mark Oaten soiled his patch.
16 - So LDs can never lose seats? Right.
Rasmussen has been showing Republican leads in the generic congressional ballot since last summer, but now Gallup also shows the GOP up among registered voters, by 48% to 44%:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124226/Republicans-Edge-Ahead-Democrats-2010-Vote.aspx?CSTS=alert
A few notes here.
1) Except for one poll immediately post-GOP convention in 2008, Republicans haven’t led in a Gallup survey for years.
2) In immediate pre-election periods, Gallup uses a likely voter model; however, this far out from an election, they use registered voters. This is important since Dems routinely do better in polls of registered voters than in polls of likely voters. Thus this poll probably underestimates the current GOP position (for reference, Rasmussen currently has the GOP up by 6).
3) The 2009 elections were a warning to the Dems in one area above all others: turnout. Those elections, particularly New Jersey, showed that Obama can’t browbeat his supporters into turning out to elect people other than himself. If the Dems are slaughtered in 2010, it will be because their voters (particularly minorities and young people) don’t turn out, while furious conservatives do. This also helps to explain why the final polls in Virginia and New Jersey this year tended to underestimate the GOP result.
On Gallup’s current numbers (or, to put it differently, if the election were today), the GOP would probably retake the House with several seats to spare. Suddenly, my predictions dating back to last year that the Republicans would pick up about 25 House seats and one or two Senate seats are looking a bit conservative. I’m not ready to change my number predictions yet, but the current trends should scare the pants off the Dems. They should probably follow Bill Clinton’s advice at this stage: ram through as much of your agenda as possible ASAP because the window is closing.
16 Winchester is an interesting one, Denmark.
My stake is small, and my level of confidence is low. I wonder how the other Five think about it.
Don’t confuse unanimity with confidence. My most confident bet on this slate is Leicester NW.
re 5. LabourList was restored several months ago to the links list.
LDs are like Zombies…impossible to kill.
The two that immediately strike me as odd here are.
1.Edinburgh SW.
I doubt the Tories have improved enough in Scotland, and suspect if the Lib Dem Vote is collapsing, enough will go to Darling.
2.Poplar and Limehouse - A Tory win depends entirely on Galloway both standing and doing well.
Neither is guaranteed.
22 And their content still reads like student agi-prop.
15. Thats a shame. I reakon the Mail on Sunday (which I usually buy) is a much better paper than the Rant.
What about the News of the Screws?
10 - That did make me chuckle…
Hark! Is that the Gabble who doesn’t do replies asking a question of OGH? Must be important then.
A sea of Blue, but what about the Colour Purple - as UKIP looms in the undergrowth?
I left the UK in July 2007 and have to scratch my head hard to remember GB having a “winning” period… Looking from the outside, I am guessing that this is a pretty good educated guess as to what may happen.
24 The list is a little out of date, Tim.
I have added my ‘vote’ to Edinburgh SW, mainly on the say-so of our Scottish posters.
I agree the Galloway uncertainty is a factor but I have odds of 6/4 and feel I know the area well enough to make a call.
My view is:-
Winchester LD Hold
Copeland C gain
Harrow E C gain
Redditch C gain
Nuneaton C gain
Bolton W C gain
Amber Valley C gain
Luton S C gain
Birmingham Perry Bar Lab hold
Edinburgh SW Lab hold
Carlisle C gain
Gloucester C gain
Hammersmith C gain
Poplar & Limehouse C gain
Sefton Central C gain
Batley & Spen C gain
Dagenham & Rainham C gain
Derby N C gain
Hyndburn C gain
Ipswich C gain
Keighley C gain
Lancaster C gain
Leicester NW C gain
Luton N C gain
Birmingham Hall Green Lab hold (outside chance of LD gain)
Birmingham Northfield C gain
Chorley C gain
Coventry S C gain
The LD remark was one of those jokes that doesn’t come across well on t’net.
Peter
Without saying too much, the authorities in Tower Hamlets are very worried about the possibility of violence in the P&L election. They’re especially worried about the count and are planning for terrorism, riots, the works.
When I suggested that the tories have a chance there, it was dismissed. As far as senior people are concerned, it’s a Labour-Respect battle. Yet I know tories who are upbeat about their prospects.
You’ve got to remember that it is now a real split constituency. To the north are the estates and large bangladeshi population. To the south, the docklands. There are plans for large housing developments in the Canary Wharf area, which will change the character even further.
29 Hate to disappoint, Weathercock, but we have yet to report a purple splodge.
26 Really? I feel the MoS is a more OTT variant of the DM
I’d be very surprised if any Mail publication ceased - they play to a very specific and usually affluent/small c conservative mind-set.
22. Mike Smithson
I’m glad to see Labourlist restored to the links list, even if it is under ‘US Politics’.
29 - With Lord Pearson as leader, the undergrowth is the limit.
15 - Sean
The Mirror should survive but it could do with a new direction. I don’t know what The Express can do. It’s been crap for 30 years but is somehow still here.
New management can turn around papers. Look at the Sun and Mirror circulations in 1970.
Newspaper readership is in decline but a few closures could well keep the others going for a number of years longer.
Edinburgh South West I expect to go to Conservative. The seat takes in the old Pentlands seat and Tories did well there in 2007. I hear they have put a lot of resources into it since then.
Anne Begg in Aberdeen South is really upping her media appearances right now. Interesting.
Very surprised by Winchester. It has a solid Liberal vote and a history of such to boot.
I’d have to agree more with Sean Fear @ 32. I’m far from confident on it.
5. Gabble is Derek Draper and I claim my free phone call from Gordon Brown.
24 tim - As PtP points out, these are not predictions as such, and I don’t think anyone is claiming Edinburgh SW is a Tory shoo-in. However, the odds were pretty good when I (and I believe others) placed their bets. Ladbrokes originally had it at 9/4; the best available now is VC’s 13/8.
In general, a lot of the value on the Conservatives to win these seats has gone. But there are no doubt some in the Midlands still worth looking at.
Amongst my punts here, the one I’m happiest with is Con to win Redditch, which I tipped here many months ago at 4/6. Best available now is 1/4.
33 I think that Respect are destined for third place in that seat(though they could finish up with 20% or so). Their group on the Council has largely disintegrated. Continued demographic change on the River means that it’s trending towards the Conservatives.
What is most striking about this list is just how many constituencies are totally bloody mystifying in their whererabouts.
Indeed half of them are to me a total nullity. And I have to guess their political complexion just from the sound of the name.
So here goes. The Sean Thomas Knox “what does it sound like” political prediction machine, aka The Euphonator.
Batley and Spen. I’m guessing its northern? Lancastrian. Yorkshire. Batley! Flat vowels and flat caps. Ugly and Labour. Likely to stay that way. The Tory MP for Batley and Spen? Nah.
Amber Valley. Ahhhh. That’s better. I’m seeing an idyllic southern English constituency, Jacobethan pubs, laughter in the summer twilight, oasthouses, blonde women in Jags. Tory.
Hyndburn. Oooh. Tricky. “Burn”? It could be Scots. Perhaps somewhere in the Borders? I’m channeling… lots of rugby. Dry stone walls. Rivers in spate. One small but hideous post-industrial town. Labour/SNP marginal, could go either way.
Morley and Outwood. Now that IS a puzzler. Could be anywhere in the UK. Hm. But I’m gonna stick my neck out, it sounds a bit Estuary to me. Outer outer London. “Outwood”. Ergo Kent or Essex. I say its a Labour constituency but with an expenses-soiled incumbent therefore likely to fall to the Tories with a high BNP vote.
How did I do?
32 That’s a pretty educated slate, SeanF. For a small fee, we might consider letting you onto the panel.
Btw, for your info (or anybody that’s interested), I didn’t back blue in Redditch because I missed the price. Must have been out of the country.
I am however absolutely certain that Ms Smith will get her well-merited comeuppance. The Tory price is too short to bother with now though.
That’s a good example of why the number of votes can be deceptive and certainly does not equate to confidence.
34. What is your reservation about Redditch Peter?
No prediction I see!
I’ve just had a look at the county elections for the Winchester area and it looks like a LD hold to me.
36 Speaking of Labour blogs - apart from Tom Harris, I’m struggling to think of one that does more than rant/cant and disembling about Tories.
Even on PB, there are 0% growth Labour posters who present their case in a positive manner.
Am I missing something or are Labour just crap? [still waiting an email from Labour.org about why I should vote/canvass for them]
45. You never fail to amuse me Sean!
36 Gabble
Better US Politics than Them Politics methinks.
Just at in 1997 I think there may be higher swings in seats held by Cabinet Ministers if the present polling trend continues- Enfield Southgate was one in 1997 that no-one expected to fall.
45, Batley’s something like 8 miles from Leeds, parts of it are well-off.
Morley & Outwood…. you’re pretty far out. Morley’s a town some 4 miles from Leeds, the most patriotic town in the country, in fact. Asquith came from there. Essex indeed.
It’s nominally solid Labour territory.
48. I’m certainly not betting it.
47. Peter. You answered my own question as I posted it!
4/1 on a Bradshaw/Balls double outing available then ?
I don’t think about winners or losers, but of good bets and bad bets. Some bad bets win, some good bets fail. In my list there are some bad bets, but in the main I’m happy enough.
My two favourite bets are Nuneaton and Ipswich.
Kuennsberg tweets “Former MPC member tells BBC we probably in for long slump - Bank of England too optimistic in his view - hard for current and future govt”
49 - Left foot forward is getting to be interesting.
And takes apart flimsy Fraser Nelson quite comfortably.
Basically, if it’s below the Wash-Severn Estuary line - and not in London - Labour will lose almost everything but a seat in Bristol, So’ton and Plymouth or Exeter.
1987 Mark II.
And to make matters worse they’ll get battered in the North and Wales too which will make it even worse.
Don’t ask me which seats. It’s too unpredictable. I prefer to bet on aggregrate totals as there is less scope for error.
39.Marcia, they also did really well in the old Edinburgh Pentlands seat at the 2001 GE when Rifkind tried to reclaim the seat he had lost to the incumbent in 97′. There is a bigger Tory vote waiting to be utilised in that seat than first glance suggests, and this type of election is shaping up to be the perfect political climate to prove it.
33 Thanks Denmark.
Yes, I know the area well.
I can understand the concerns about violence but that doesn’t alter my evaluation. It is a Labour/Respect battle only in certain areas and the latter are, imo, a busted flush.
I concur with the optimism of your Tory acquaintances.
11. PtP. Ah, I have in fact followed Stuart and backed the SNP in Edinburgh North & Leith…
On a previous thread I was asked about backing the Tories in Holborn. As pointed out by others, it is a speculative punt for small money at 8/1, but I think I placed it when I read a story (rumour) that Frank Dobson might stand down. Of course I can’t find any such story now. Hey ho.
39 Thanks Marcia. You grow lovelier by the day.
53. lol. I just Googled the constituencies (I really had no idea where they were, I didn’t even look at the colours on Mike’s chart).
I believe I was wrong in almost every single speculation.
And on that oddly heartening note, I bid you Wan An from the frankly flipping feeezin Himalayan foothills.
63 - the mirror suggest otherwise
Regarding Winchester: IIRC I bet on it because Jack W said it will be a Tory win. Who am I to disagree?
PoliticsHome
Was Mandelson right to attack The Sun and NI:
Yes - 50%
No - 38%
DK - 8%
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/was_mandelson_right_to_fight_back_against_the_sun%3F.html
62. …cont.
Also backed the LDs in Wavetree and the Tories in Exeter.
These are punters chasing value rather than making predictions I presume. Sean Fear’s predictions are far better.
If the Tories win Birmingham Perry Barr and Hall Green, I think Labour will be in double figures nationally.
65 - why that scoundrel Maguire… oh wait, now I’m with you
62 That’s three votes for Edinburgh North, Scott! They’re home and hosed!!
67 Gabble - if you are so sure of Labour’s advantage, why are you posting article after article to make yourself feel better?
69 Praguetory - Indeed, in my case Hall Green was a highly speculative £10 at 16-1. I’m not expecting to win that one, although it would be nice!
Surprised there is no talk on here of a Brown bounce as a result of the last few days.
It looks highly likely in my view. Think we may well get a poll with a Con lead below 10%.
#57 Nah, things are great here in Shangrila, haven’t you been reading Gabble’s posts?
563 Prev thread-
“degenerate, no, gamblers, they would argue strongly again, no. Workoholic, yes, but for many, not solely due to cards, rather their various other projects.”
It was intended to be lightheaterted. Come on - you’re not telling me that Sahames, Dwan, Galfond, Martonas, Isildur1 and the rest don’t strike you as a tiny bit degen? They do coinflips for tens of thousands. That’s gambling, in my book.
There are grinders without that mentality, I agree but it seems to be useful at the nosebleeds. Me, I play 5/10 limit tops. I don’t have the gambool for more, even when I think I could beat the game. Scared money loses.
“There are numerous names that that already have, as well as turning to other things like law, real estate, film production etc.”
As I say, most of the names I’ve seen have done things that basically involve investing their winnings in fields they’re interested in to provide a more secure future income. Quite smart that is too. I’m sure a few abandon the game completely, but I can’t see that many people with a background of gambling for millions settling into a $200k corporate law job, for example.
I’m surprised about Winchester.
Oaten had a reasonable majority and remains popular as a constituency MP, the boundary changes are helpful overall, the LD candidate Martin Tod is working extremely hard and has a high profile, local election results are trending towards the LDs and the strong Tory candidate last time has jumped ship.
This list sounds biased, but I’m genuinely not aware of any evidence that the Tories are doing well here.
74, we might do, but I doubt there’ll be a significant shift.
Further to Richard N’s post at 46, I should say that in general all the value has been squeezed out of the Tory prices now. Anybody looking for really good value has probably got to look at the other Parties, particularly Labour.
Somehow, somewhere, there will be a Labour seat that bucks the trend and any punter shrewd enough to spot it will make a killing.
Broxtowe anybody?
62 - I wouldn’t underestimate the SNP candidate Calum Cashley in EN & L. He is a shrewed tactition. He ran Labour very close in Dundee West in 1999 coming from nowhere to almost snatch the seat.
Sean - very amusing - but Amber Valley is considerably less nice than it sounds. Derbyshire. But not the nice bits. Small towns; ex mining and industrial. BNP quite active there.
There is a local authority of the same name, the nicest bits of which are in the new Mid Derbyshire seat.
(If taking a wild stab based on its name I’d have placed it somewhere in the south-west, personally. South-eastern valleys always sound nerdish. Mole Valley, say, or Meon Valley.)
67 - What politics home panel thinks on this particular question is irrelevant. What matters is if the Murdoch clan think a) that the Sun went OTT and take a bit of a smack to the chops from Mandy or b) declare all out war on Mandy / Labour.
If it is b), get the popcorn and watch sparks fly.
74 I can’t think of any reason why there should be one. Many people felt sorry on occasions for John Major - and much good it did him.
67 - Lib Dems even keener on Mandelson attacking the Sun than Labour supporters.
69. “These are punters chasing value rather than making predictions I presume.”
Yes, and no. It is absolutely punters chasing value, and of course some of the bets are therefore speculative, but the “wisdom of crowds” question is whether people risking their own money do in fact have any useful predictive powers. It will be fun on the
nightday seeing how well the group performs.PtP
As you’re a full on punter, P&L is one of those places to keep an eye on from a betting perspective. Not just this GE, but especially the following. UNS, amongst its problems, fails to pick up demographic changes.
The developments in the pipeline for Canary Wharf and the Surrounds will increase the population by thousands. Possibly more than 10000. With only 25% being ‘affordable’ housing I think. Also, if this causes boundary changes, it will be areas in the north that the seat loses - Labour areas.
One for the memory bank.
73 - Reception canvassing on the doorstep in the Springfield ward where we are fourth locally was generally positive at the weekend with several direct switchers to us. At 63, I don’t think Godsiff will be campaigning very hard (he wanted Selly Oak) for Labour, but the Dems have 8 of the 12 councillors and of course, Respect will be targetting this seat too (their party conference takes place here tomorrow). A Tory win will depend on significant direct Lab to Con switches and a significant uplift in the inner city areas.
53 - Batley. Golly - I remember going to see Louis Armstrong at Batley Variety Club more years ago than I care to remember - sigh
77 You accusing The Six of bias, Park Town?
We may be full of prejudice, but I promise you, our wallets are not.
83 - The Tory Front bench is not on good form at the moment though.
Cameron - below par, Hague - Hague, Grayling - Joke.
Warsi and Gove (their best) invisible.
A little local bias here but are there any prices for Ilford North and South?
82 There’s also -
c) Sit back and wait for an opportunity to present itself. Revenge is a dish best served cold, after all.
Surprised as some others are by the Winchester predictions. The County results suggest the Lib Dems are not being punished for the sitting MP’s behaviour (as they seemed to be in the local elections immediately after the scandal). So we’re looking at standard loss of incumbency when a Lib Dem MP stands down plus your view of Lib Dem to Tory swing in marginals. The Lib Dem candidate has had some time to get established and County results suggest he has it all quite well marshalled. My view is that the 8,000 vote buffer is enough. Not by a large margin, but enough.
Poplar and Limehouse is interesting. Depends a lot on what Galloway does and whether he can still mobilise the old hard left alliance - being a big character isn’t enough; he did need the Respect foot soldiers. Eighteen months ago, I would have backed the Tories to slip through here at the right odds. Now I think the 6/4 available isn’t quite tempting enough.
BBC:
David Miliband rules himself out of running for EU Foreign Minister post.
re 890. And by comparison Labour have…..errrrrrrrrrr
Keith Vaz and the Daily Rant are going to be disappointed (not often you can say that).
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has smashed the record to become the best selling video game of all time in Britain, with 1.23 million copies sold in the first 24 hours.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/video-games/6546113/Call-of-Duty-Modern-Warfare-2-sells-1.23m-units-in-one-day.html
95 Jonah, the Postman, Ed Balls.
91 Fraid not, Sunil.
North is a blue shoo-in, and South switches to blue only in extreme landslide circumstances. Not fertile betting grounds.
39. marcia - “Edinburgh South West I expect to go to Conservative. The seat takes in the old Pentlands seat and Tories did well there in 2007. I hear they have put a lot of resources into it since then.”
I was brought up in Edinburgh Pentlands. Malcolm Rifkind was my MP for many years. I know this part of Edinburgh very well. It will go Conservative again next year.
Tim is correct, a large number of Edinburgh Lib Dems (and east coast SLDs in general) will vote tactically for Labour in certain seats, including Edinburgh SW, but it will not be enough. Too many Lab voters will be going out the door on the other side -> to SNP, Green, and even straight to Con.
Darling has seriously pissed off FAR too many Edinburgh bankers for his own good.
Terror suspects are to be excluded from plans to delete DNA profiles from the national database after six years, under government proposals published today.
Those arrested on suspicion of terror offences but released without charge could have their DNA profile kept on the national database indefinitely.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6912396.ece
More work (and money) for lawyers on the way me thinks.
95 - I was drawing acomparison to the Shadow Front Bench that faced Major.
How do you think the Tories stack up?
Winchester: LDs have been if anything stronger in local govt election in the last few years. I think they will hold on.
Gloucester: not convinced that the Tories will win Gloucester. Not a very good candidate (for the seat).
Luton South: this probably seems very counterintuitive but I wouldn’t rule out Qurbain Hussain for the Liberal Democrats. Mike is probably closer to the action though.
Copeland: Agree that the Tories might win here, but I imagine that these are value bets rather than conviction bets.
Overall: There will be some very unusual results in all sorts of seats because of the expenses scandal. And Cameron has the advantage of being in opposition, and the disadvantage of having been around too long. Six motnhs ago I would have said high turnout at the next election. Now it looks more like a low turnout election, with unpredicable consequences.
Peter the Punter November 11th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
34. PtP. True, but wouldn’t it set the cat among the pigeons if a sp[lug of Purple did appear on your electoral betting map befor election day?
re 77. Having known Park Town Boy for many years, even before I set up PB, I rate his judgement on Winchester.
sp[lug = splurge
103 Please, Weathercock, my Bank MAnager is worried enough about me as it is.
94, as significant as Incitatus stating he wouldn’t contest Claudius’ ascension to the purple.
104 He thinks The Panel is crooked. Off with his head!
PMQs Score:
Brown 7
Cameron: 4
Clegg: 6
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/brown-cameron-performance
104. Maybe Mike but after Oaten the L/Dems there smell of shit.
But perhaps the locals like it.
As a P&L resident my view, FWIW, is that massive Tory gains at ward level since 2005 + well organised local Tory Party + boundary changes + Galloway splitting the left vote + chance to turf out a Minister = CON GAIN.
109 - MacGabble, have you read the comments though?
109. Naturally! It’s the New Statesman and James Macintire talking. Pillock.
109, hahaha. MacIntyre, he of the ‘Tories have gotten to the Chief Rabbi of Poland’ and ‘the Tories are racist’ posts now has another moment of epic neutrality.
99 cont.
I should of course have added that a significant chunk of Labour’s 2005 voters will abstain too.
112 (cont) I’ll treat you to some,
“Talking of living in a parallel universe….”
“(To author) I was going to offer you some straws, But I see you are clutching at some already”
“Your always good for a laugh. I’ll give you that.”
re 101. I loathe Grayling but he’s a sharper attack dog than any on the Labour front bench. Since John Reid opted out Labour has had no real big hitter.
Burnham - 2/10
Johnson 3/10
Darling 7/10
Miliband D 5/10
Miliband E 4/10
Bradshshaw 1/10
Mandelson 6/10
Harman 6/10
Balls 4/10
Cooper 6/10
Tories
Gove 8/10
Grayling 6/10
Osborne 7/10
Hague 2/10
Hammond 7/10
Ken Clarke 3/10 (he’s just past it now)
Pickles 5/10
Jon Craig:
“But this week, after suffering a torrid 48 hours at the hands of tabloid tormentors and the grieving mother of a dead war hero, Gordon Brown did rather better against the Conservative leader than in recent weeks and cheered up his backbenchers for a change.”
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:5f0cc461-840d-4291-ab32-d84cb333b906
109 Gabble, a change to Jonathan’s riposte on the Speccie:
A lefty rag votes Brown the winner, what a surprise
re 110. By election day all will be forgotten. Just like it will be in Bromsgrove and SW Norfolk and fr the Tories in Watford.
Ladbrokes have 5/6 both sides in Winchester - neither bet offers value.
119 - Seems a lot more reasonable than Fat Head initial review. Gordo still lied his way through, but other than that seems about right.
I live in Poplar and Limehouse. There is no chance that the Conservatives will take this constituency. Although the riverside areas are now gentrified and more inclined to vote Tory, there are still plenty of council estate wards in the constituency (49% of residents live in social housing). Doing the maths on the local election numbers shows that the only possible results are a Labour win or a Galloway win. There are several huge developments where the “affordable housing” elements have been filled but the private rentals are pretty empty. Also many of the natural Tory voters are transitory renters and don’t vote.
Another point: do not discount the tactical voting element - if it looks like Galloway has a chance many natural Tory voters (like me) will vote Labour tactically to avoid having Galloway as constituency MP. Jim Fitzpatrick’s team have been canvassing and pushing this argument which holds weight given Galloway’s performance as an MP.
117 Mike - Not far off what I’d go for.
On the Labour side, I’d upgrade Ed Miliband and downgrade DM. I don’t rate Cooper at all - she just spouts the party line even if it is irrelevant. You’ve maybe been a bit harsh on Johnson, although I agree he’s not great.
On the Tory side you’ve underrated Hague, who sometimes scores some real hits (although I’m not as much of a fan as many Conservatives). Grayling and Pickles are inconsistent; sometimes good, sometimes gaffe-prone.
121 Out of curiosity - what was your worst bet?
77 Park Town Boy
I’m grateful that you think I was a strong candidate but, without wishing to sound too defensive, I didn’t jump ship. Meon Valley (the seat I am standing for this time) is made up by part of the former Winchester Constituency and one from Hampshire (East).
I’ll admit it’s perhaps an easier prospect than the new Winchester but I’m still working a lot of the same territory.
124 Saw DM give a talk on foreign policy. He was genuinely impressive.
David Miliband has said there should be “no doubt” he is committed to Labour’s re-election bid after formally ruling himself out of a top EU job.
Business Secretary Lord Mandelson, who has also been linked with the job, also ruled himself out, saying: “It is not a job I want to do”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8355718.stm
Typical Mandy quote, doesn’t categorically rule him out, “not wanting to do a job”, but if needs must….
Mike Smithson November 11th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Hague 2/10
Yes I wonder about Hagues deleivery in parliament, He is getting too Cerebral for me.
I think his mind is split between writing and the lecture circuit, (where I think his heart is) and party politics. He needs watching.
Cameron may wake up one morning and find him gone.
I have a feeling that Luton North may well buck the national trend and stay red. In contrast to Moran the serial flipper on the southside, Kelvin Hopkins came out of the expenses row with his standing greatly improved and I think the electorate will reward him for it.
What’s the odds on the seat?
24.
Tim opines that he “doubts the Tories have improved enough in Scotland”.
He is both right and wrong.
As a detailed analysis of the 2009 Euro vote pattern will show, the Scottish Tories are generally doing pretty poorly, HOWEVER they are doing significantly better in exactly the areas they need to be doing better!
ie. their national vote share could be pretty cr@p (eg. around 20%) but they could still win seats like Edinburgh SW by a comfortable margin.
Just don’t expect them to win in Coatbridge and Shotts.
91. Oh I would have thought North was at least competitive, given Lee Scott’s majority is only 1,653
118 - Not far off my own scores, I think you’re too low on E Miliband and Johnson, too high on Harman.
On the Tories, you need to include Warsi at 6/10 and downgrade Grayling (before he does it for you)
re 5 Mike do please keep it up. I can imagine Gabble being in an absolute hissy fit as he was typing this and it’s cheered me up immensely. Carry it on and we’ll out him yet.
re 125. I’ve had many bad bets but my worst in financial terms was a buy on Lib Dem seats made at 6pm on May 5th 2005. I bought at 67/8 - they got 62. I had several hundred pounds a seat on.
This experience meant that the following February when all the information I was getting pointed to a LD win in Dunfermline I failed to risk all that much.
123 Thanks Michael. That’s interesting.
I take your point about transitory voters but would add that ’social housing’ voters have exceptionally low turnout levels.
BTW Has Gordon ruled himself out of the EU top job? Would be an interesting development. And there are plenty of attractions to many parties.
121 - Paddys have Lib Dems 11/10 in Winchester. I’d suggest that’s good value in a seat they hold with 8K majority.
As for Weathercock at 111, I’d suggest looking at the County elections in May - I would have bet in 2006 Oaten would contaminate the Lib Dem brand in Winchester for a long time but the facts we have suggest not. I’d also suggest the people of Winchester have it right in distinguishing the man and the brand - but that’s a value judgement and all you really need to look at is the votes that have actually been cast when betting.
118. I basically agree with that. Clarke is on late middle age cruise control, too much scotch and cigars, he hasn’t been genuinely sharp for some time.
And yes, Hague is oddly off form.
Why? It’s not age. He’s young. It’s not lack of chutzpah or wit, he has both in spades. So what is it?
I have suddenly developed a theory: I reckon Hague basically lost interest in serious politics, a la Portillo, after the 2005 defeat, when he realised that politics was’t everything, and indeed there was much more fun and money and even influence to be had OUTSIDE politics.
But he stayed in the game, because he had one remaining conviction: his euroscepticism. However, I’m guessing - rather wildly - that, like me, he has recently realised that this euroscepticism has been overtaken by geopolitical events. He still believes in it emotionally, but logically… hmmm…..
Wuthout that eurosceptic fire, Hague is a whited sepulchre. He has nothing left in his belly to make him stick at it. But he will do so, cause he is loyal and patriotic. But the lack of motivation shows.
Despite the absence of major talent on the Tory front benches, they are, as you say, still better than Labour, who have twice as many MPs. And of course the Tories will be getting a huge infusion of fresh blood in six months.
Amongst the Labour mediocrities, Ben Bradshaw stands out. He just looks so…. odd. Like Dorian Gray.
I can understand the reservations about the Tories taking Winchester. The Libdems did well in the county council elections in this part of Hants and Mark Tod is a LibDem high-flyer. However, I think that if there is a chance of a hung parliament many Libdems will jump ship to ensure that Brown does not creep back to power via the back door. Paradoxically, if a Tory landslide seems on the cards I expect the LibDems to hold Winchester. Because I think the election in 2010 will be close and the polls will open the possibility of a hung parliament, I reckon the Tories will win the seat. Personally, I expect Chris Huhne to be the only LibDem MP in Hants after 2010.
135 Hats off to you for fessing up. Us two-bit plyers may have as much to learn from losing as winning.
133
Tim, have you been taking counting lessons? one, two, three, four, god it must be tough for you…even when you are watching and listening to a speech you still can’t count, perhaps an abacus might help?
141 Proper punters never mind talking about their bad bets.
Were you here for New Hampshire? Want to see the scars?
139. I said all that about Hage in post 129, and in rather less lines, SeanT.
137. The idea of Gordon as POTEU is attractive to British parties in a limited way.
But for the rest of Europe? The most despised and unsuccessful British prime minister in modern history? He is the best candidate to lead Europe?
Jonathan, I hereby unmask you as a secret eurosceptic, determined to undermine the Brussels project from within.
Following one from earlier article on flattering World Cup bid, this stinging article in The Times.
The 2018 World Cup bid began that day in February 2007 as it has fared ever since — messed up by politicians and their empty promises.
“We can become the sporting nation of the world,” Gordon Brown told The Times.
“It reinforces the image of England around the world,” Brown said, “but also the sense that we are taking ourselves seriously as a sporting nation.” But, as it happens, not so seriously that he is willing to stump up for it.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/article6911785.ece
126 Thanks for that, George H, and good luck in May (or whenever.)
What’s your take on Winchester? (No odds for Meon, sadly.
)
Btw, I suspect PTB was just using a figure of speech, not making a value judgement.
139 - Spot on re Hague and his Euroscepticism, he’s lost his cause he’s lost his mojo.
And its just dawned on him that flying into Bratislava to discuss junior doctors hours for five years is not that appealing.
He also knows that it will be him the Euroscptics come after, and he’s stuck in no mans land philosophically without any fight left.
Is he too lazy to be Home Secretary, because Grayling needs replacing.
143
Shurely knowing when you’ve cocked up and why is useful?
146 (correction) flattering -> faltering.
132.
Sorry, forgot to mention Ilford North is #35 in the Labour Target seats:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/labour-target-seats/
137 ‘BTW Has Gordon ruled himself out of the EU top job?’
Do the other members of the EU really want a semi-coherent, tearful, gibbering wreck as President? Joking apart what qualities do you think make Brown suitable for the role?
139. that’s bit unfair - Clarke is one of the few politicians I have met who was at least decent enough to answer honestly. I do wonder if that was the result of the wine he copiously imbibed with us - some of which ended up down his floral tie and expansive shirt
152 - He is a shameless liar, who enjoys fiddling financial figures and somebody who has never fought a proper election in his life. Probably sounds ideal for the EU Elite.
144. Indeed you did, sir! And I salute your precocious good sense.
However I provided the backstory: Hague’s euroscepticism has withered on the vine, leaving him bereft of serious political purpose. He thought he was going to be directing Britain into a semi-detached Euro-position after the rejection of the EU Constitution in a famous and epochal British referendum.
Instead he will be wandering Europe asking for the return of widget making policy to London, requests that may be turned down. And he maybe also realises that euroscepticism is, geopolitically, looking somewhat naive, especially when Britain is weak.
Tough luck for the Hague. Good man though. Msybe Cammo should make him Chancellor or Home Sec instead.
142 - No idea what you’re talking about, but if you can count to eleven thats when your parents send you away.
Stay ten.
Nicer.
Surely we are going to get an ICM poll v. soon?
145 Well it would be an interesting development. I am sure there would be widespread support. He might like it, it would mean trumping A. Blair?
124 Hague “sometimes scores some real hits”
True but outside the very narrow world of people to whom noon on Wednesday is the best time of the week scoring hits simply is not what it is about. Hague is good at comical debating points but politically that is about as valuable as being good at French knitting. I am puzzled as to why tories don’t regard 1997-2001 as proving this point. I suspect that the often-quoted silly sums he is said to make by after dinner speaking have something to do with it.
Liar Cameron exposed by Channel4 FactCheck:
The lie: “Poverty …[has]… got worse, despite Labour’s massive expansion of the state.”
Score: 4/5
(5/5 = claim with absolutely no basis in fact)
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/factcheck+labours+poverty+record/3420402
155 TIMBOT, would ‘eleven’ be a reference to the number of fingers you have?
151 OK, Sunil, you’ve goaded me.
You can have Labour with me - even money - as much as you like.
IDS has spent his time off the front bench much more fruitfully than Hague and it shows.
He’s a more credible politician than either Hague or Grayling
I always thought Cameron was clever putting Hague into the shadow FO, he has proved to an excellent lighting rod for the grassroots on the EU. Same with Fox at Defence.
159 - You missed a bit there old MacGabble,
“Poverty and inequality have got worse, despite Labour’s massive expansion of the state.”
2 (on inequality)
131 As Stuart said the Scottish Tories are improving where we need to. A poll rating of 20% represents an extra voter for every 3 we already had in 2005. If we head back towards 500,000 votes in Scotland at the GE then those 140,000 extra voters are going to be in seats like:
D,C and T
Dumfries and Galloway
Renfrewshire East
Edinburgh South-west
Edinburgh south
Aberdeen South
Berwick, Roxburgh etc
West Aberdeenshire
Stirling
Perth
Angus
they will not be in Glasgow or Dundee or Lanarkshire or Fife, areas where we have no hope of winning seats.
161. Well I think the Tories will win too! I just wanted to see what the “official” odds were!
Gordon Brown as President of the EU council is too delicious too contemplate. Stop teasing now Jonathon. As the primary role is to chair the council, I can already see the bust ups with the French and Germans.
GB4POTEC - Yes please.
Anyway, these speculations are pointless. The job will go to a nonentity from a minor member. The Big players will see to that.
why is my comment in moderation - surely not the implication that Clarke likes a drop?
33. Sean Fear - “Edinburgh SW Lab hold”
Huh?
Sean, if Annabel’s team fail to capture Edinburgh SW, then you guys are heading for an absolutely horrific outcome at the GE.
You simply MUST win Edinburgh SW. It is your Scottish Bellwether seat.
Gain it (+ at least Dumfries and Galloway + a.n.other) and PM Dave has a (small) chance of holding the Union together.
Fail to gain it, and PM Dave will be in a constitutional nightmare from Day One.
Tims Idea of Labour heaven.
A Tory front bench full of IDSs.
155 Well Tim, I’ll refresh your memory for you, last night you said Cameron was name checking Blond like mad. I was watching Cameron till the BBC cut away. I added the link for you so you could check for yourself.. He wasn’t, he only mentioned him once.
btw 11 is wrong too. you’re not very good with figures are you.
Oh and MacGabble if we are going to play that game,
“I said we would have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and if it hadn’t been ratified we would have had that referendum.
“But I did not promise a referendum come what may because once the Lisbon Treaty is the law, there’s nothing anyone can do about it and I’m not going to treat people like fools and offer a referendum that has no effect.”
Summary
Cameron has campaigned so vociferously for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty that it’s easy to think he gave a “cast-iron guarantee” to put the Treaty to the vote no matter what.
But when he used that now-famous phrase, he did appear to be talking about the Treaty pre-ratification, rather than undoing the signed-on-the-dotted line that will now become an EU-wide reality.
FactCheck rating: 2
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/factcheck+camerons+castiron+guarantee/3410597
“SNP braced for second successive byelection defeat by Labour”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/11/glasgow-north-east-byelection-snp-labour
147 PtP. Sorry. Didn’t mean to sound defensive but I couldn’t resist the urge to bleat.
Winchester. Mmmmm. You know when your wife asks you how she looks in that dress and there’s no way you can get it right? As I pressed “Submit Comment” I suddenly realised that that I was going to be asked that question and that’s how I’d feel.
Probably sensible for me to temporarily convert to Trappist status (and no that doesn’t mean I have something I want to say but can’t!).
169 - Actually I think most people have more respect for him now that they did five years ago.
Graylings my fave at the moment, The Wire and Dannatt blew him out of the water.
Wonder if he’ll get it back.
Price of GOLD today: $1,118.88 per ounce
177 - Can anyone remind me how much did the genius, that is Gordon Brown sell it for?
177 - Good grief. and at what price did Gordon flog it.?
Actually don’t bother, too depressing.
177 - And Brown offloaded our the gold an average of $275 an ounce.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1655001.ece
173. There is no doubt that Channel 4, along with every other broadcaster, has been part of the “Cameron Coronation” narrative.
That makes it all the more devastating that, at last, even the Cast-Iron Liar is now being held up to proper scrutiny.
141 / 143 - Here’s my worst ever loss:
http://www.cricinfo.com/pakvbdesh/engine/match/343759.html?innings=2;page=1;view=commentary
I backed Nafees (in the hutch with 24) to be Bangladesh top bat when they were 92/9 with both new batsmen (10 and 11) yet to score. I got a ludicrous 1/5 - I thought then (and still do) that 1/20 would have been generous.
Read the commentary and weep for me - it still hurts! My nemesis was dropped on 23 and completed 2 runs off that ball, and was promptly out two balls later…
177/8/9/80 - Herd Ahoy!
175 LOL!
Absolutely understood, GeorgeH. There’s no reason why anybody should jeopardise their career just for the curiosity of a few down at heel punters.
It always amazes me that elected representatives are prepared to come on here and freely give their opinions when one word out of place could expose them to public ridicule. NickP is the obvious example but there have been others.
It’s maybe a tribute to the PB Community, and them, that there has never been ‘an incident’.
But I wouldn’t want you to be the first….
180 - That’s criminal, I’m going to launch a private prosecution against Gordon Brown and try and recover the losses from via the POCA.
180 (cont) According to my rough back of a fag packet calcs we are down in the region of £10.5 bn. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
178. What was even worse was that he announced the sale in advance and thereby depressed the Market even further!
185 - You were a huge buyer of gold back then I take it? I imagine that would be the first questions the lawyers ask you.
185, be fair. It’s not like he pre-announced the sale, depressing the market even further.
Oh… right.
*sighs*
186 (correction) Sorry
$10.5 bn.
182 - Don’t talk about cricket betting.
I lost around 6grand on the spreads back in 2001, when I backed England to win the Ashes. England lost the series 4-1.
181. “That makes it all the more devastating that, at last, even the Cast-Iron Liar is now being held up to proper scrutiny.”
Cameron is a minnow compared to the whale of a liar that is Gordon Brown. If honesty is so important to you Gabble, ha ha ha, you must hate Gordon Brown.
188 - My mother is and was a huge buyer of gold then.
London’s Top 20 most influential people:
Boris Johnson, Mayor of London
Lord Mandelson, Business Secretary
Gordon Brown, Prime Minister
David Cameron, Conservative Leader
Mervyn King, Bank of England Governor
Sir Paul Stephenson, Metropolitan Police
Commissioner
Sir Philip Green, Bhs and Arcadia boss
James Murdoch, News Corporation Europe chief executive
Sir Martin Sorrell, WPP boss
Sir Nicholas Serota, Director of the Tate
Simon Cowell, pop impresario
David Campbell, AEG Europe chief executive
Lord Coe, London Olympic Organising Committee chairman
Stella McCartney, fashion designer
Harriet Harman, Labour deputy leader
Camila Batmanghelidjh, Kids Company, founder
Richard Caring, restaurateur and club owner
Lily Allen, singer
Dizzee Rascal, rapper
Peter Hendy, Transport commissioner
183 176 & 181 - Shills ahoy! See? Everyone can play that game TIMBOT!
194. http://www.banmoco.co.uk/london%E2%80%99s-20-most-influential-people-27310/
182 Yer own fault for betting on Bengla Desh!
I had £100 ew on Special Envoy at 25/1 when he fell at the last at Aintree. He was eight lengths clear and pulling away. You remember it? I bloody do.
186 - And if you’d borrowed a few hundred grand, bought some of that sale and sold today you’d be a millionaire. Did you?
193 - That’s a no then.
189 - Well quite. I don’t have any great quibble with the rough level Brown got for our gold; that was the market at the time and to argue against it on the basis of subsequent rises is aftertiming.
However, our biggest punters don’t tend to phone us up and say, “By the way, I’ll be looking to back Man Utd for £50k later today.”
199 - Actually it is, my parents acquisition of gold, has been very useful for me, it helped pay for the deposits on my houses.
186 But seriously, Oracle, was it more expensive than the Major/Lamont ‘devaluation’?
Not trying to make a point, just curious.
175 - George, I notice an increasing tendency on Conservative Candidates websites to remove references to their pre University education unless they went to a state school.
Is this a policy?
183. Surely the silence of the (usually bleating)labour lambs is as significant as the neighing of the tory herd; or is this silence temporary and is gabble about to hit us with the FactChecked version of the gold price?
I fail to see why anyone would put money on the Conservatives to win Birmingham Hall Green , this is a clear 3 way fight between Labour LibDem and Salma Yaqoob for Respect . FWIW I think Labour will just hold on . The new boundaries put the end to any Conservative chances in this seat and they will be at best 4th .
202 - Black Wednesday cost 3.3billion
According to documents released today by the Treasury after a Freedom of Information request by the Financial Times, the best estimate of the cost is £3.3 billion. As John Major, prime minister at the time, said of the documents’ release this afternoon: “No one denies - least of all myself - that this is a substantial cost but it is also fair to note that it is a fraction of the figures of £27 billion, £20 billion, £13 billion, previously bandied about.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article512451.ece
191 TSE
Not me this time, but a freind bought England runs at tea-time when they were playing the infamous ‘ball-tampering match’ with Pakistan. As you may recall, there was no more play.
Ouch.
176: ‘The Wire and Dannatt blew him out of the water.’
The Wire? What was that all about?
202 - £3.3 billion in foreign currency reserves
http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2005/02/how_much_did_th.html
202.I would say that financially yes, it was more expensive for us than Black Wednesday, and a lot more damaging in the long run for the UK economy right now. We could do with finding a few ingots down the back of the Treasury sofa right now. Politically, its not been as costly for Brown or the government though.
203 - tim
It’s a bit like Labour MPs avoiding mention of their privileged backgrounds or the privileged schooling their children get. See if you can find any reference to Harman being an aristocrat, privately educated and sending her kids to school as far away from Peckham Comps as is possible.
The left have politicised childhood.
194. Come on Gabble! Gordon Brown aint no Londoner.
And I’ll bet on that.
206 - The expenses occurred on Black Wednesday were dwarfed by the damage done in the previous years by the overvaluation of the pound.
210 - Maybe the opposition should be mentioning that we are $10+ bn down on the deal (as things stand) more often!
Wotcha, cockbiscuits.
Nice to see Poplar & Limehouse blue team putting in a good showing amongst the Super Six.
207 - Ouch indeed. That must have hurt.
The funniest/saddest best losing bet story is this one.
In the 2005 Champions League Final, when Liverpool were 3nil down to AC Milan at half time. A friend of a friend put 20quid on Liverpool winning at 200/1.
Liverpool won the match on penalties.
The friend of a friend, thinking he has trousered 4,000 quid, the next day went on a shopping spree and spent around 3grand on his credit card.
He noticed he hadn’t been paid by his bookie, when he asked why, he said the best was to win after 90mins. Winning on penalties didn’t count.
210 - Have you gone through every sale of gold under a Conservative government and calculated the “loss” arising from the sale price at the time and the price available today? What does it come to?
re 180/186 $10.5bn seems a lot of money doesn’t it, and a huge loss by Brown? But thanks to his continuing incompetence $10.5 won’t even balance the books for a fortnight. Yes that’s right our deficit is running at that rate.
206 Thanks, TSE.
So, about £50 per head for each man, woman and child in the UK. Hmmm……
Puts my gambling into perspective.
194. Harriet Harman? Listen, I have all the love in the world for Harriet Harman, but there are 8 million people in London. Certainly one of them is more influential than Harriet Harman. It must be one of those things where they thought they had to put a woman in.
216 - best was = bet was
218 - Bit like reminding the couple who won £45 mill on the Euro Millions, that they have dropped a tenner the other week!
217 – Neil, do you know of any Gold sales under Major or Thatcher..? I don’t recall any.
219 - A 3billion loss on Black Wednesday also puts the current £175bn PSBR into perspective as well.
216 No sympathy, TSE. He should have known that, and should certainly have checked his balance first. (I’m a hard bas*ard.)
210 Christina
The difference is, as Aaron suggested, that the gold was sold at the market price at the time and to criticise the judgement is indeed hindsighting. Pre-announcing the sale was however daft, if that’s what he did.
225 - He blames the alcohol and the euphoria of winning for not checking.
Sometime in the late 1980’s - forget the year - Gold reached over $800 an ounce. I believe the Tory Government sold gold just before the top was reached and made a big profit when they bought some back at less than $400 an ounce.
Will have to research the year.
It seems relevant to this thread, so I will note that there have been five Populus polls from June 2009. Rather than look at these consecutively, I thought it would be useful to look at the average of the regional splits over that period (to try to get rid of some of the random noise that comes in small sub-samples). It is potentially informative for seat betting - though obviously these splits are not balanced or taken at the same time, so they need exceptional caution in their use.
The average splits are as follows:
SE
Con 43
Lab 24
LD 20
Midlands
Con 45
Lab 23
LD 16
North England
Con 34
Lab 32
LD 19
Wales and SW
Con 40
Lab 19
LD 21
PC 8
Scotland
Con 18
Lab 35
LD 13
SNP 28
That average split in the Midlands hints that the Conservatives are going to pick up just about every marginal in the district.
Winchester LD Hold
Copeland Lab hold
Harrow E C gain
Redditch C gain
Nuneaton C gain
Bolton W C gain
Amber Valley C gain
Luton S C gain
Birmingham Perry Bar Lab hold
Edinburgh SW Lab hold
Carlisle C gain
Gloucester Lab hold
Hammersmith C gain
Poplar & Limehouse Lab hold
Sefton Central C gain
Batley & Spen C gain
Dagenham & Rainham Lab hold
Derby N LD gain
Hyndburn C gain
Ipswich C gain
Keighley C gain
Lancaster C gain
Leicester NW C gain
Luton N C gain
Birmingham Hall Green LD gain
Birmingham Northfield C gain
Chorley C gain
Coventry S C gain
228 - Though sales at $800 would still count as a “loss” they way posters here are calculating their figures here.
213. “206 - The expenses occurred on Black Wednesday were dwarfed by the damage done in the previous years by the overvaluation of the pound.”
Labour have set a whole host of new records when it comes to buggering up the economy. Black Wednesday will be just a footnote in the Bumper Book of British Booms and Busts.
How much is the Water Industry worth now compared to what the Tories sold it for.
I seem to remember them writing off about £5 billion in debt on top of everything else.
I’ve also backed Wavetree as LD gain
217.That is not the question that Peter asked and I responded too.
Timesonline (April 2007) - Goldfinger Brown’s £2 billion blunder in the bullion market “Chancellor ignored advice on sell-off”
“GATHERED around a table in one of the Bank of England’s grand meeting rooms, the select group of Britain’s top gold traders could not believe what they were being told.
Gordon Brown had decided to sell off more than half of the country’s centuries-old gold reserves and the chancellor was intending to announce his plan later that day.
It was May 1999 and the gold price had stagnated for much of the decade. The traders present — including senior executives from at least two big investment banks — warned that Brown, who was not at the meeting, could barely have chosen a worse moment.
In the room, just behind the governor’s main office, they cautioned that gold traditionally moved in decades-long cycles and that the price was likely to increase. They added that even if the sale were to go ahead, the timings and amounts should not be announced, as the gold price would plunge.
“The timing of the decision was ludicrous. We told them you are going to push the gold price down before you sell,” said Peter Fava, then head of precious metal dealing at HSBC who was present at the meeting. “We thought it was a disastrous decision; we couldn’t understand it. We brought up a lot of potential problems at the meeting.”
Martin Stokes, former vice-president at JP Morgan, who was also present, said: “I was surprised they had chosen the auction method. It indicated they did not have a real understanding of the gold market.”
According to other sources, however, Bank of England officials told those present they had “little say” about what was going to happen and that they were “doing what they were told”. This was a decision made by Brown and his inner circle, who appeared uninterested in their expert advice.
Ian Plenderleith, the senior Bank executive hosting the meeting, is nevertheless understood to have compiled a note on the meeting for the Treasury. It is one of several key documents that are thought to disclose the warnings ignored by ministers.
Eight years on, the advice appears even more pertinent.
The price of gold has almost trebled and the loss to the taxpayer has been calculated by one leading firm of accountants at more than £2 billion.
The decision to sell 400 tons of gold is seen in City circles as a financial bungle on the scale of the Tories’ “Black Wednesday” that cost the taxpayer £3.3 billion, according to Treasury estimates.”
And a small amount on Bedford - LD gain
226 PtP - the infamous Brown Bottom illustrated
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article670.html
235 - No, you’re right, it was a different question. Have you done it?
Two interesting by elections tomorrow,
Shepway, LIb Dem elected, defected to Cons now resigned. Who will win? A Con would be a Con gain
South Hams Totnes. Last Time (2007) Con 206, LD 476 elected, LD 186, Lab 170, Independent 820 elected, UKIP 236.
Lib Dem resigned.
Tomorrow only Con, Lab, Lib Dem & Green standing.
Would think should be a Cons gain, particuarly as in their “good” area of Devon.
229. antifrank
Scotland
Con 18
Lab 35
LD 13
SNP 28
That “feels” about right.
My “best guess” of how UK GE Polling Day will pan out (ie. not v.i. today, but actual voting in May 2010) is:
Scotland
Con 22
Lab 30
LD 15
SNP 27
33 Sean F, 230 Big tim - Interesting lists, esp. Birmingham Northfield still available at 2/1 Sky Bet. On paper it looks quite a stretch.
Ted
WOW. He sold HALF of our reserves? F*ckmeblind. What did he do with the money? And why did we even need the money. That was one of the few years Brown had a surplus!!!
Ted
WOW. He sold HALF of our reserves? phckmeblind. What did he do with the money? And why did we even need the money. That was one of the few years Brown had a surplus!!!
Just completed a survey for Springboard UK (used by Angus Reid). It included voting intention questions along with some questions about nuclear energy and driving.
On Morely and Outwood, a couple of my colleagues live in the new constituency. They’ve said the conservatives have been very active in the seat.
So far the line that has been pushed is mostly a play on Ed Balls surname
“Get Balls out for a tenner” etc.
They’ve not unleashed so far, him being Mini Me to Gordon Brown’s Dr Evil
238.Why the hell should I? You want that info, google it yourself!
242 - With the proceeds of the sales, the Treasury bought euros, dollars and yen.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-527090/Gordon-Brown-sold-half-Britains-gold-rock-prices–costing-country-4bn-value-metal-hits-time-high.html
235 - The figures mentioned where when Gold was $685, now $1118. Also, Gordo bought Euros will some of the money. Again since the analysis was done, we all know what has happened there.
245 - A simple no would do.
For anyone interested, the PLP chair election will be November 26. Nominations close on the 23rd, at which point it will be clear if Barry Sheerman or anyone else is standing as an anti-Brown candidate. Hard to be sure, but after seeing off the Sun yesterday and Cameron today, Brown’s standing with colleagues has improved, and if the by-election result is healthy a challenge may fade.
re 236. Bedford is my biggest winner if the LDs do it. I’m on at 50/1, 33/1, 25/1, and 10/1.
They are now down to 7/2.
The Mayoral victory gives them the platform to tell Labour voters that the only way of stopping the Tories is by voting them - and of course vice versa.
I think that it’s a better prospect than Watford.
My plan is to cover the stakes by backing the Tories.
249 - “A Challenge may fade”
Music to my ears
248.Why do I doubt that a simple no have sufficed on this question?
251 - I’m sure the meeting will look something like this,
http://echeng.com/journal/images/misc/echeng-jellyfish-lake-palau.jpg
I’m coming out of lurking because the selling our gold thing really annoys me. I hate Gordon Brown as much as the next man and will certainly be voting Tory at the next election, but my job around the time was advising big institutional clients on portfolio allocation (including some European Central banks). I can’t see I’d have recommended anything different.
There seem to be two criticisms of Brown selling the gold:
1. That it has gone up since
2. That he told everyone he was going to do so.
For 1. It was a reallocation of assets from gold to other assets (mostly currencies) to make the portfolio more balanced. Whether the price has gone up since doesn’t change the fact that it’s good to have a diversified portfolio. The stock market has pretty much gone up since February, but no-one (not even uber-bull Tim) would suggest that the best thing to have done would have been to allocate 100% of your money into equities. Diversification is key for any portfolio analysis. In a similar way to considering whether it’s worth holding a newly allocated set of shares (maybe due to a de-mutualisation), it’s often sensible to ask: if you had the cash would you buy this?
If we’d had cash to invest at the time, would everyone still be here berating Brown for not investing it in gold?
Hindsight is wonderful. The price of gold at the time was around $250-$300, but was trending down from $400 and had been lower than $100 in the 1970s.
2. As to pre-announcing the sale. That is likely to be the best way to get the best price. This was enormous amounts of gold. If you’d just tried to turn up and sell it, the market would have been completely spooked and prices might have collapsed.
It’s hard to sell large quantiities of anything on a market. What do you think would happen if you just tried to sell an enormous amount of Vodafone shares on the exchange. The buy orders would get filled quickly, then a few more would appear and get filled. Then buyers would be a bit slow to appear, they’d be cautious and may well offer to buy at progressively lower and lower prices. Maybe some buyers would go away worried that there was something happening that they didn’t know about.
There may have been other ways to execute efficiently, but there aren’t many.
In practise, in stocks, banks are generally happy to earn money to execute large transactions, but they do so at a much lower price than the current one, and have to be able to take the risk of holding that stock over the many days it takes to sell.
I suspect that the negative reaction is often less about the real market impacts and more about the fact that many people seem to have a bit of an emotional attachment to the shiny stuff (after all it isn’t really useful for anything so it’s value is only based on what it might be worth on resale). My view is that gold is the ultimate bubble - that doesn’t mean there won’t continue to be more buyers than sellers pushing the price up, or that a country or region might not decide that it is a de-facto currency, but it’ll all be artificial. At least things like copper, platinum, silver and palladium have real uses.
Back to lurking now.
235 Thanks Christina.
That has an all too plausible and familiar ring.
re 249. I agree with that Nick.
The by election could not have come at a better time.
I only heard PMQs on the car radio and my judgement was that Brown did not do very well. Maybe it will be different looking at the TV replay.
And why did not Bercow, as last week, stop Brown asking questions?
Bluff, or double bluff?
It won’t be March
The Tories have been worrying away about the possibility of a March election giving Gordon Brown an element of surprise.
Now George Osborne’s backroom team have found a reason to stop worrying unless, that is, Gordon Brown wants to go to the country without having a Budget.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/11/budget_timing_r.html
@ Stuart Dickson
Scotland
Con 22
Lab 30
LD 15
SNP 27
I assume you’re talking about percentages? Well, that’s not going to happen. The SNP have not prepared themselves against a ‘don’t let the Tories in by the back door’ logic. I think fear of a Cameron government is going to rob the SNP and maybe even the libs.
Tory 19%
Lab 36%
Lib 13%
SNP 27%
check out my new blog: http://scotlandunspun.blogspot.com
252 - I have no idea.
243.
That’s odd we have just had an Angus Reid ?
254 - What a breath of fresh air. Unfortunately I dont think you’ll get the Oracles / Oncoming Storms / Screaming Eagles / Christina’s of the site to accept your logic and / or even understand it.
249 Nick P - A very revealing post.
I don’t for a moment doubt what Nick says, but it is extraordinary if Brown’s standing amongst Labour MPs depends on a couple of days’ news stories and one PMQs. Since the underlying reality hasn’t changed a jot, that tells me that they are searching for reasons not to do anything.
I think Labour MPs can count on cross-party support for this commendable inaction.
re 256 because he’s probably had a visit from Brown’s henchmen.
is this some alternate universe?
I see Gabble claiming someone else (MS) is irrational
A certain lack of self awareness gabs …..
254 Lee - However, he didn’t have to sell it all in one go, which would answer the second point, would it not?
261 - Grow up Neil, you make yourself look like a sub-gabble.
239 Yup, it’s looking like the Labour troops will definitely be following Gordon into battle.
Good luck, Nick.
90 - No, not bias, I was just surprised that you had all bet that way, that’s all.
249. LOL! Seeing off The Sun? Seeing off Cameron? Are you Labour MP’s completely losing touch with reality?
261 - I think I can speak for myself. Check my posts, I simply stated how much we were roughly down on the gold and the overall deal that was done, nothing more nothing less.
re 257 what a load of rubbish. I though Robinson was supposed to know about politics? The last possible dissolution date for a March election is 8th March for a 31st March election.
Lloyd Evans calls PMQs a draw. Does that mean it was a huge Cameron win?
This was a noisy and perfectly unenlightening draw.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5531038/parallel-universe.thtml
126 - No criticism intended. You chose the better of the two successor seats and would have been barmy not to. My point was that you had built up some profile in Winchester and the fact you are not standing was a further factor against Tory prospects.
229 - AntiFrank, I remember reading somewhere (probably here) that the Tories are doing much better in the West Mids than they are doing in the East Mids.
254 - Cheers Lee, I’m sure Christina, Oracle and the other experts will take your post apart immediately.
Ahem.
I quite like Uber Bull, although I prefer Anti Herd.
I stuck what I could into HSBC shares and tipped them on here in March and bought ISAs at the same time, but after very big gains I expect the market to bounce between 5000 and 5500 for a while, so will rebalance my portfolio again.
WIne I think.
266 - I thought it was more Tim’s style than Gabble myself. But like Lee this particular issue does tend to irritate me as those complaining the loudest nearly always seem to understand the least about it.
‘ but after seeing off the Sun yesterday and Cameron today, Brown’s standing with colleagues has improved’said NPMP.
palmer,cameron was average today,but brown was bloody awful,forgod sake man,he started asking cameron questions.
I think nick you are letting the polls on the sun v brown go to your head,the man in my view is the worst PM in living memory.
257. “The Treasury civil servants are all working towards a spring Budget and Brown would be pilloried if he went to the country without telling voters what economic horrors might lie ahead.”
Being pilloried may be preferable to ‘fessing up to the economic horrors, so I don’t think Robinson’s story tells us that much about when Labour will call an election.
276 - No my objection with Brown’s gold sale is two fold
1) He pre announced it
2) He ignored advice.
If you cant comprehend that, never mind.
272. Like Mike I only heard PMQ’s on the radio, but from what I heard Brown was his typical shouting and bellowing self. Some people may ragard getting up and shouting everybody else down with the great cluncking fist, as a win, but personally I think Brown just comes across unhinged most of the time.
A young man from Tory HQ has just walked into the Sky News Westminster office and handed me a top secret document.
It says “Protected - Funding Policy” and “Skills Investment Strategy 2010-11″ and it’s the leaked document from Peter Mandelson’s Whitehall empire brandished by David Cameron during Prime Minister’s Questions.
“At least £340 million of efficiency savings needs to be found across the further education and skills sector for 2010-11,” it tells us.
Cuts, in other words.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:5f0cc461-840d-4291-ab32-d84cb333b906
MacGabble - you need to have a word with comrade Roger about branding and perceptions. I suspect he will tell you that when one brand ‘owns’ an attribute in the public’s consciousness it is absolutely useless for a competitor to try and take the same attribute. It works in the negative sense too. Every time you mention “Liar!” everyone else thinks of Gordon Brown. You make the situation worse, not better, by banging away like this. To the public Gordon Brown = liar. At in his case this is not for one comment disingenuously twisted but for a career of blatant lying. But hey, if it makes you feel better, bang away.
260 - They are doing polling for other organisations as well as PB.
254 Thanks Lee
That has a very authoratative ring!
Christina - your move.
243.260.
Ive been Springboarded/ARS’d as well.
Must be for the Sundays as its only open 24hrs.
261 It isn’t, it is a quite bafflingly bad point. Gold “isn’t really useful for anything so its value is only based on what it might be worth on resale”. Its a financial asset so why would it be valued on anything other than “what it might be worth on resale”? That’s like saying that food is of no use whatever (except for eating).
Slightly O/T Mandelson makes enemies of the sun at his peril
The prince of darkness has plenty of secrets, does he really want the yacht thing investigated again… or the mortgage …. or anything else related to his choice of friends / partners …
269. 249
Considering the Labour MPs behave as if they are living on a different planet to the rest of us… Then these deluded thoughts are what we expect from them!
281 - I expect that young man from Tory HQ will soon get a visit from the police. I mean come on, he has a leaked report.
279 - OK Oracle bailed, you’ve failed.
Come on Christina Ed and MTF.
Get your brains out
277. What polls have there been regarding Sun Vs Brown?
275 Surely you followed the forecasts of all the Tory posters on here saying the FTSE was heading below 4,000 . I womder if any of them followed their own advice .
260. Yes I thought so too, but it definitely had the standard voting intention questions. Paraphrased:
At the next general election who will you be voting for in your constituency?
How likely are you to vote?
How is Brown/Cameron doing?
Who would you vote for if Cameron/Brown/Clegg was standing in your constituency?
Who did you vote for in 2005?
292 - Considering you predicted there would be no recession…what’s that about people in glass houses shouldnt get changed with the light on?
By the way, are you going to apologise for calling me a BNP supporter a few weeks ago?
279 - Are you claiming the decision was not based on official advice? Quite a bold claim if so.
280,agree,brown shouts abit and some people think he’s done better.
290 tim - I think the ball is currently in the other court, following my return at 265.
295 - Yes
295 - “GORDON BROWN is to face questions in parliament after revelations that he disregarded advice from the Bank of England before he sold off more than half the country’s gold reserves at the bottom of the market.
They have revealed that Bank of England officials had serious misgivings over the chancellor’s determination to sell 400 tons of bullion in a series of auctions between 1999 and 2002, when the price was at a 20-year low.”
A senior investment bank director, present at a meeting held by the Bank of England in May 1999 to discuss the sell-off, said: “We were told this was a Brown thing and that the Bank had no say over what was going on. The officials were unhappy.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1654931.ece
294 I did not call you personally a BNP supporter but if the cap fitted …..
Haven’t seen this one posted yet:
“Lord Mandelson to become Minister of Information”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6546523/Lord-Mandelson-to-become-Minister-of-Information.html
297 - He didnt sell it all in one go.
300 - Yes, the cap fits, I’m a BNP supporter.
298 - Rather a ridiculous claim but if it’s the kind of thing you want to believe I doubt anyone here can help you.
299 (cont) Lets also put this in context,
“18-month battle in which the Treasury has blocked attempts by The Sunday Times to make public the official advice received by Brown before he sold the gold.”
296. The PLP are delighted with Gordo’s performance. Happy Days !!
Labour MPs cheered him on — genuinely, not just going through the motions. One even told me afterwards that yesterday and today we had witnessed a “new Gordon Brown.” Interesting. We shall see.
http://todayinpolitics.independentminds.livejournal.com/40692.html
304 - Well you see, I do have a link
Chancellor ignored advice on sell-off
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1655001.ece
307 - Yeah, but you’re not clever enough to see that the link doesnt support your claim. Which makes it difficult to debate with you.
291,the fictional polls that the bbc keep saying that the majority of e-mailers,texters and so on are on brown’s side on this subject.
I also notice NPMP went to the comments section on the sun story on mail on line and he said majority were on browns side,but that’s me keeping the trust of mr palmer
308 - Ok, I’m not clever according to the court that is Neil.
239 Totnes is most unlikely to be a Conservative gain as they are quite weak in the town . The dark horse is the Greens who won the Totnes CC seat this year .
306. LOL!
Ive focussed my constituency betting on the Tories around the midlands areas where I expect bigger than average swings. Areas such as Derby North & Amber Valley etc are quite warm for me.
Ive focussed my constituency betting on the Tories around the midlands areas where I expect bigger than average swings. Areas such as Derby North & Amber Valley etc are quite warm for me.
Neil
If we needed 3 billion of Foreign Currency, Brown could have used his surplus in 1999 to buy them.
What makes more sense:
1) Sell huge piles of gold, to then buy foreign currency, or
2) Tell the treasury to buy foreign currency and keep the gold.
BTW, anyone watching the Channel 4 News special? It is universally anti-Afghan war, and complaining about lack of equipment and helicopters.
301. Ha, Mandelson wants to be a star on the Internet.
Massively off topic but what do people do with their poppies once Armistice day is over?
I’ve got a tin full of poppies from previous years.
Throwing them away seems bad form, and recylcing next year seems tight?
Any suggestions?
308 Neil - An extraordinary as well as an unnecesarily rude comment, given this excerpt from the link:
Ian Plenderleith, the senior Bank executive hosting the meeting, is nevertheless understood to have compiled a note on the meeting for the Treasury. It is one of several key documents that are thought to disclose the warnings ignored by ministers.
What part of ‘warnings ignored by ministers’ do you think doesn’t support TSE’s statement ‘Chancellor ignored advice on sell-off’?
Did Gordo
lie like a plonkerinadvertently mislead the house at PMQs?During Prime Minister’s Questions, Mr Brown told MPs he had spoken to Mr Obama and expected him “to announce in a few days what his numbers for Afghanistan will be”.
However a White House spokesman insisted that the decision was still “weeks and not days” away.
Downing Street has said the PM he had been “using that phrase in the vernacular”.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Afghanistan-White-House-Denies-President-Obama-Will-Announce-Troops-Numbers-To-Afghanistan-Shortly/Article/200911215451629?lpos=Politics_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15451629_Afghanistan%3A_White_House_Denies_President_Obama_Will_Announce_Troops_Numbers_To_Afghanistan_Shortly
315 - Ah, if only you had been a highly paid Treasury advisor at the time. All the money we would have saved. It was all really simple in the end, wasnt it?
320 - Another Wednesday, another afternoon and evening of #10 spinners having to clearing up after Gordo’s doo doo.
320 - What must Obama think of Gordon Brown?
317. You couldn’t make this stuff up, could you? Dodgy Mandy becomes the Minister of (DIS?) information? The man everyone thinks is the untrustworthy politician of his or any generation, will actually go out and sell the governments message?
I think Labour have become punch drunk.
319 - The claim was that he didnt follow advice. It is beyond obvious that he followed advice. Dont you think?
309 - Fictional Polls?
This one has polled 1300 people.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/the_backlash_voters_defend_gordon_brown_on_jacqui_janes_dispute.html
The Sun blew this one badly.
249. This is not a party political point (I have said much the same about Hague today) but can you and your colleagues not distinguish at all between politics and football? Even if GB has “won” against the Sun and David Cameron it isn’t a victory that counts towards anything because (a)there is only one result which decides outcomes and that will be the result on May 6 - Brown does not crawl up a league table on the back of “triumphs” like today) and (b)voters do not give a toss about PMQs and if the Sun victory is relevant, it will not be fresh in the voters minds sixth months hence but will be remembered if at all in the context of other events of the year like: McBridegate, Gurkhagate, reshufflegate, Obama Beachgate,Tory cuts vs labour spendinggate. My point is not that your colleagues are wrong (though they are) but that they are irrationally short termist; anyone who has an opinion on Gordon Brown has formed that opinion on the basis of a lot of information. Today adds one very small piece of information. On your showing your colleagues are attaching weight to that piece of information because they are unable to see and compensate for the fact that recent facts appear more important than they are just by virtue of being recent.
320 - so the PMQ ‘clarifications’ begin…and so soon
297 - I wasn’t including you in the herd, I see your blue as Chelsea rather than the Portsmouth of the bovine mass.
Who’d have thought that some putrid journalism from The Sun would result in a fightback from Labour. People seem genuinely angry about Dave’s new best friends. Nothing galvanizes support like a despised enemy and the Sun and it’s proprietor are perfect targets. It’s time for Labour to show some confidence. Start with some tongue in cheek 48 sheets featuring “Rupert and Dave” perhaps with Dave sitting on Rupert’s knee……
324. Mandelson’s also the one who is most upset about the Sun switch of allegiance, calling News International executives “chumps”, and now ranting about a contract between the Tories and the Sun. With his firm grasp on reality and sense of perspective he’s just the man for the job at Minitrue.
Neil
All the posted links state that the advice was to NOT sell it off. Which makes sense, when they only got 3 billion and the surplus that year was 4 billion.
So, as I’m open minded, if you can get of your high horse and provide links to the contrary I might change my opinion.
All that effort for 3 billion and now the BoE has to magic 200 billion out of thin air. Gordon, economic genius.
325 - what evidence do you have that Brown ‘followed advice’ in the way he sold the gold?
329 - Am I Chelsea or Portsmouth?
Either would leave me feeling gutted
306 Perhaps I’m not a cynic after all. NPMP says that Gordon’s wet-eyed, mea culpa, Broken Brown perfrmance yesterday was “seeing off the Sun” and now “One even told me afterwards that yesterday and today we had witnessed a “new Gordon Brown.”
With an expected win in tomorrow’s by-election (which doesn’t disappoint me as I’m in South Africa for a long weekend and I feared an unexpected loss, turmoil and finding on my return on Monday that AJ was PM) it looks like DC has his Christmas present and Gordon is here until the GE.
334
There is no evidence. Since when has Brown ever followed advice? It’s one of his problems.
If he had that advice, it would have been leaked and the advisor hung out to dry for the good of Gordon.
331 - I would not be at all surprised to see Mandy doing the daily / weekly press briefings.
I would be astonished if the whole ‘televised press briefings’ wasn’t his idea in an attempt to wrest back control of the narrative from the msm - classic NuLab.
330. “Start with some tongue in cheek 48 sheets featuring “Rupert and Dave” perhaps with Dave sitting on Rupert’s knee……”
The trouble with such an approach is that the Tories can if necessary provide endless examples of Labour big-wigs socialising and meeting with the Murdochs and News International executives.
Labour will look like hypocritical arses.
326,what do you think of the bbc coverage of the brown v sun,for me it has been a disgrace,inwhich the bbc became the SUN in brown’s corner.
334 - Everton
326. Perhaps - We’ll wait and see what the next voting intention poll shows to see the real fall out of all this.
Mind you, Brown is now involved in a protracted battle with The Sun. And as John Major found out in the 90’s, such a battle can only lead to one outcome. I bet you lefties weren’t whinging about the Sun then were you?
331/337 - Am I seeing this as a prelude for the General Election where Mandy fronts Labour’s campaign, whilst Gordon Brown is hidden away in a closet?
258. Alex Porter - ” I think fear of a Cameron government is going to rob the SNP and maybe even the libs.
Tory 19%
Lab 36%
Lib 13%
SNP 27%
Err… your SNP figure is identical to mine Alex!
It is the Cons and Libs you have marked down compared to my analysis. Labour will never reach as high as 36% on Polling Day.
But nice try on trying to promote your blog!
Where has that other guy gone who was always promoting his blog?
340 - That;s even more hurtful
326 It’s a voodoo poll. Does the 1326 people include those who didn’t respond? Politics Home emailed all its registered readers, I’d guess, and only those who were exercised enough about the affair would have bothered to respond. So, whether or not it’s politically balanced, it’s a self-selecting sample.
Besides which, the questioning is biased. “Do you think this story and its methods have crossed the line into an inappropriate attach on the Prime Minister, or do you think it is legitimate and valuable journalism”. Er, neither - it’s a free country and the Sun can publish what it f***ing well likes without considering my opinion or those of my servants Brown and Mandelson.
261.Hmm, as I said, a doubt a simple no would not have sufficed. My point was based on being aware that Brown chose to act against the advice of those called in by the Treasury at the time. But maybe these ‘experts’ listed at the meeting just called it right on a fluke!
I have never claimed to be an economic guru on this site, but Gordon Brown has done so continually during his time in office. I did note that politically, the gold move has never damaged Brown and his government in the way that Black Wednesday did for Major and Lamont. Something you seem to have missed.
Bottom line, he was advised against making that move at that time, he ignored the advice. So yes, I think that its fair criticism of Brown on this. I know the arguments of why he ‘chose’ to do so at the time, and again, I not convinced that he needed to rush out and do it the minute that gold was at rocket bottom. But then, Gordon was a law unto himself at that point in the Treasury and he certainly didn’t like being crossed or told he was wrong. It tended to make him dig his heels in further, ask anyone who tried to cross him at the time.
Maybe its just me, but if had a portfolio which included something like gold, I would prefer to hang onto it a bit longer rather than sell it when the market was tanking unless I absolutely had too.
Interesting interview on Sky News with Master of Marlborough College. The public school is planning to open a co-ed private boarding school in Malaysia.
This is a good example of how the UK’s state, or in this case charitable, service sector can be leveraged to obtain export earnings and growth.
A few public schools are probably not going to make much difference but the same principles applied to the NHS and commercial medical sector could provide a massive boost to overseas earnings.
It is time to think outside the box.
SeanT - read 326 (tim) and 330 (Roger) and you will see why I think there are such thngs as tim wannabees.
And if there aren’t, it is one of the better insults I have thought of.
re 326. But not from a member of the British Polling Council.
342. “331/337 - Am I seeing this as a prelude for the General Election where Mandy fronts Labour’s campaign, whilst Gordon Brown is hidden away in a closet?”
Ask the voters to vote for the man who is afraid to face them, by having the man they all hate sing Brown’s praises?
Genius!
342 - I don’t know about ‘hidden in a closet’, but I bet a sizeable number of Labour MPs would like to put him under a pedestal
Many council chief executives are expected to resign over the next year, rather than implement severe budget cuts and negative publicity, the head of their representative body has claimed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6546817/Under-fire-local-authority-chief-executives-set-to-quit.html
342 - by the way, how about naming your son Aloitius Cadwallader?
352 That’s good, maybe local councils can use the recession to recruit some replacements a bit cheaper.
349,so tim told me a untruth again,so my point of fictional still stands then
353 - My wife has set her heart of Sebastian Morris, and i’ve learnt the hard way, never disagree with a (hormonal and pregnant) woman.
356 - that’s good. Using your last name that I recall, this anagrams to - IN STOUTEST BARBARISM
Great choice
Which Chancellor said the following:
”And because for too long governments have taken too much in taxes from people who work hard but are not wealthy,”
All this nonsense about a “fightback by Labour” in response to The Sun’s treatment of Gordon.
The Sun exposed the Prime Minister at work without the filters applied by the media and Downing Street spin machine. The Emperor without clothes was shown to be ugly and incompetent.
The Sun landed a knockout. People have been revulsed because the punch was below the belt. No one will vote Labour for pity’s sake.
352 - Of course it could be a plot to secure employment for suddenly and unexpectedly ex-Labour MPs
#165 Yes I also noted the score of 2/5 on the factcheck for which based on the C4 scale seems to imply more likely to be true than not true on the ‘Labour made inequality greater’ assertion.
On the ‘Poverty’ assertion the factcheck takes this to mean the poverty threshold, although it’s by no mean clear that this is the measure Cameron had in mind - at conference he said ‘who made the poor poorest’. [It's a straw-man argument].
The IFS (cited by C4 factcheck) begrudgingly said …It is, therefore, technically true that those with the very lowest incomes now have lower incomes than in 1996-97…
The third assertion which Cameron made at conference and ignored by the factcheck was ‘Labour left youth unemployment higher’. I don’t think this is any doubt - the IFS have this to say:
…Turning to youth unemployment, Cameron is correct to point out that youth unemployment was higher over this summer than any period since 1992, the start of official data.
The cited IFS article then concludes:
So it is fair to say that youth unemployment and income inequality have risen under Labour, and that, on a very narrow, and potentially uninformative, measure, the incomes of households with the lowest incomes are now lower than they were in 1996-97.
357 - I can live with that. I think
Comment from Toenails’ blog on Mandy speaking at the MiniTru
obangobang wrote:
Will Meddlesome enter the press room to the tune of Jackanory?
358 - OESI?
360 - Well if we believe Jackie Ashley, that’ll be about 240 Chief Executives resigning.
This gold sale should be seen in the context of him selling the 3G licences for £30 billion. This not only covered any loss on gold many times over but it was also a masterstroke which had it not been for Brown would have been money the treasury wouldn’t have made.
352/354….in addition to the Chief Executives going perhaps we could see the back of 25% of the other numnuts that infest councils.
Yes the OESI is right, the Government does take too much in tax from people who work hard, but aren’t wealthy.
Shame we cant trust what he says in budgets.
And which Chancellor said this:
”We are also meeting the second fiscal rule, that of sustainable investment, a prudent ratio of debt to national income.”
356.TSE, I must admit I got my way naming our first two, fitaloon got complete freedom on No3 and he did a very good job.
261. That changes nothing, it was a typically shortsighted decision by Brown, and I’m not mocking his eyesight, which has cost this country in the long run.
You should ask the South African gold miners who lost their jobs because of the depressed gold Market at the time what they thought of it.
342 - I could see Lord Mandelson of no fixed job title handling the daily press briefings in London, while Gordo is sent on walkabout every day, early and often, always to meet a hard working family with children prominently in the shot, or visiting a school, kindergarten, hospital or factory where the opportunity of damage from him being asked questions is minimal.
PPBs could show The Great Leader in these circumstances with voice over, or the PM doing one of his fiery speeches with no risk of heckling, or standing in front of one of those silly daily posters by a river somewhere.
He will be seen but not heard.
Ha, this one’s a cracker. Which Chancellor said this:
”97 per cent of estates will now be exempt from tax.”
hahahahahahahahha
371 - That’s very plausible.
People might not like Mandelson, but they do respect him. He will command attention.
366 - this ‘masterstroke’ of which you speak means that cell phone users have to pay much higher charges than they would have otherwise.
Another Brown ‘investment’ which actually costs the public money..
Re 288.
I must apologise for my earlier assumption that Gold peaked in the late 1980’s.
What follows is the true story:
What Happened to the Gold Price in 1980?
In January 1980 gold hit a record 850 US dollars an ounce. After reaching those dizzy heights it then plummeted down and remained steady in the 300-400 dollar range for some years before starting to climb again to new levels.
Now gold has broken through the 900 dollars an ounce gold barrier and some investors and analysts are wondering, is this going to be a repeat of the 1980 gold spike?
In fact, there are many differences between the 1980 spike in the gold price and the current rise in gold value, not the least of which is the longer term trend currently occurring. In 1980 gold basically shot up like a bullet out of a gun and then, like a bullet, slowed down and returned to earth.
History
In January 1980 gold was fixed at a record 850 USD an ounce while high inflation, strong oil prices , Soviet intervention in Afghanistan as well as the impact of the Iranian revolution prompted investors to heavily buy the metal.
Adjusting for inflation, meant the 1980 record high price was actually $2,079 an ounce at 2006 prices, while, according to precious metals consultancy GFMS, the real average price in 1980 was calculated at $1,503.
As a result of the removal of the gold standard by Nixon in1971, what little life was left in the Bretton Woods, built during the devastation of World War II to help Europe recover its faith in credit and currencies agreement was killed off. The result?
“Inflation in most countries at the end of 1979 was running in double digits,” writes Peter Bernstein in his classic The Power of Gold. Pointing to the OPEC-led spike in oil prices, he also notes that “political conditions were perhaps even more frightening.”
“Iranian radicals in Nov. 1979 took over the US embassy in Tehran…At the same time, the Russians were building up their strength in southern Yemen near Saudi Arabia, near Afghanistan’s border with Iran, and near Bulgaria’s border with Yugoslavia.”
Key Dates in Gold History
Here are some key dates in gold’s trading history covering the period from the early 1970s through to January 2008 including that period when gold rose, fell and, like the phoenix, has risen again.
In August 1971, took the dollar off the gold standard. With some minor variations this had been in place since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 and fixed the conversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at $35.
In August 1972, United States devalued dollar to $38 per ounce of gold.
In March 1973, Most of the major countries adopted a floating exchange rate system.
Then in May 1973, the United States devalued dollar again, to $42.22 per ounce.
January 1980. Gold hits record high at $850 per ounce. High inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution, which prompted investors to move into the metal.
In August 1999, gold fell to an all-time low at $251.70 on concerns about central banks reducing gold bullion reserves while, at the same time mining companies were selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.
In October 1999, gold reached a two-year high at $338 after an agreement by 15 European central banks to limit the gold sales.
During February 2003, gold reached 4-1/2-year high on safe-haven buying in the run-up to conflict with Iraq.
Then in December 2003 to January 2004, gold broke above $400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors started to increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.
In November 2005, the spot gold rises above $500 for the first time since December 1987, when the spot hit $502.97.
April 11, 2006, and gold prices then surpass the next big level of 600 US dollars an ounce, the highest since December 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and geopolitical worries.
May 12, 2006, saw gold prices peak at 730 US dollars an ounce This was the highest level since January 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and political tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
June 14, 2006 gold falls 26 percent to $543 from its 26-year peak after investors and speculators went on a flurry of profit taking.
Nov 7, 2007, spot gold peaks at a 28-year high of $845.40 an ounce.
Jan 2, 2008, gold breaks above $850 for the first time since 1980.
Jan 8, 2008, gold hits record $875.80. (Sources: GFMS, World Gold Council, Commodity Research Bureau and Reuters database).
Jan 12, 2008, Now gold has breached 900 dollars an ounce and looks set to reach the magical 1000 US dollars per ounce.
Why Gold
Some similarities can be found between the two highest evers but there is a marked difference between the two that show this latest high is not a spike but a continuing trend.
In James Turk’s “2008 Gold Should Glitter”, he comments
“Although gold’s previous record high of $850 reached in January 1980 gets attention, rarely do people consider that a 1980-dollar had substantially more purchasing power than a 2007-dollar. Adjusting for 27 years of inflation, it takes $2,208 today to equal the purchasing power of $850 in January 1980. So by this measure, gold is still far from a true record high.”
He follows this on with:
“Another useful measure to determine gold’s relative value can be made by comparing gold to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gold is overvalued when it takes only one ounce to buy the DJIA. For example in the 1930s, one ounce of gold at $35 bought the DJIA, and it did so again in 1980 when an ounce of gold was $850 and the DJIA was 800. Though this ratio has fallen from more than 40 ounces in 2000, it still takes 16 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA, meaning that gold continues to be a relatively good value while the DJIA is relatively expensive ….”
So gold is still relatively, undervalued, or “cheap” as it were, and there is still a lon
366. “This gold sale should be seen in the context of him selling the 3G licences for £30 billion. This not only covered any loss on gold many times over but it was also a masterstroke which had it not been for Brown would have been money the treasury wouldn’t have made.”
A masterstroke that has held back the development of 3G services for years and crippled business.
Smart countries gave the licenses to companies that agreed to provide the best service, not use the license regime as a backup to taxation.
342 - and of course, the debates. As I said on PB some time ago, Brown will agree to the debates but will attach so many conditions and caveats that it simply is not feasible. He will never agree to a debate in which the subject is not known in advance.
- and that’s pretty much what happened. Cameron and Clegg just said “Yes”, but Brown wants different debates, subjects and matchups.
377 - I do agree with that.
I also have this theory, that the reason Cameron is pulling his punches at PMQ’s recently, if Brown thinks he can finally defeat Cameron, he’ll agree to the debates with few caveats
360 True, it was money for nothing, the State selling something that was free and hadn’t cost them a thing.
How much did the lack of that £30bn then harm the telecom companies andd as a result the UK economy? Along came the dot.com crash? BT sold out of its holdings across the world, reduced investment in network in UK, sold off O2 and Yellow pages to try to pay off its debts including the £5bn it wasted on 3G (O2 was spun off free of that cost). Others hit financial problems and were bought out by foreign investors.
The £30bn was used to pay off National Debt, reducing interest payments for a couple of years then Brown opened the tap and let Debt mount again.
Doubt there was much if any economic benefit taken over the medium/long term.
378, nearer the election (or even just post-Christmas) I want to see Cameron actually firing on all cylinders at PMQs.
#366 Roger - maybe you should stick to commenting on films and not technology:
…Unfortunately for Europe the governments of two countries, Britain and Germany, had applied spectrum auctions. Unlike the United States government, they did not re-run the auction when it raised around ten times more than they thought it should have. Within a year 100,000 jobs were lost in telecoms support and development across Europe with 30,000 coming from the UK..
As you say a ‘masterstroke’ not.
380 - The other theory is that Cameron is pulling his punches, so the Labour party wont remove Brown (see NPMP’s comment upthread, it seems to be working)
Once there is no time to remove Brown (probably Feb if we’re going for a June election) then Cameron will start getting back to past levels.
275 tim
Liquid assets?
Good choice bearing in mind what is coming.
306: ‘”yesterday and today we had witnessed a ‘new Gordon Brown. Interesting.”‘
Oh Lordy! Not another occasion when the criminally misunderstood Gordon - humane, deep, driven, accomplished, sagacious, brave - finally, joyfully reveals his true self to hitherto blinded populace. And my God how they like what they see! If I’d heard that cobblers from some Labour bellboy once I’ve heard it a million times. A load of unadulterated cr*p.
Winchester - I’m told now the largest lib dem constituiency party in the country. Local results suggest brand not contaminated by Oaten. Martin Todd the Lib DEm PPC really is very good. Far from certain Tory gain I’d have thought.
Copeland. I accept that the new Keswick wards may shaft Labour but the county results suggest it may just be recoverable for Labour plus you have the recent big Energy Coast announcement. I just wonder if this very odd area is a little too conservative to elect a Conservative.
Wavertree. I have no local knoweldge for those putting money on however (a) the history of liverpool liberals ( sans alton) delivering in parliamentary election is poor. DO we think Chris Rennard, of that parish, hasn’t tried? (b) The Council group, which has transformed the city since 1998, is now in its fall of Rome stage and has baggage. In fact an interesting bet is wether Labour will regain Liberpool City Council if the GE is held on locals day.
382,cameron can’t win,if cameron started pulling his punches,the media will say he’s bullying poor old mr brown.
In light of the thorough fisking of Rogerdamus’ nonsense intervention, which Chancellor said this:
”the newest and most decisive economic challenge of the 21st century - mastering information technologies, from the PC to the internet, from e-mail to e-commerce.
*This industry is the great driver of world economic growth today.*”
378 - I think Cameron is merely using PMQs to make his points, and not primarily (although it is a useful side-effect) in nailing Brown.
Cameron’s objective is to make his points, at the same time reminding the country of (and putting on show) Brown’s weaknesses, failures, and personality flaws, but sparring with the occasional jab, and trying to pull his punches just enough to avoid a knockout blow.
Cameron would rather see Brown in place than A.N. Other come election time, and while he is happy to apply pressure to make Brown show all his flaws and make those silly statements he does, he doesn’t want to K.O. the man - at least until it’s too late for a change, and the election campaign is imminent.
382 - TSE will you please stop reading my mind and typing faster than I do?!!
My 388 says exactly what your post does - although I think my prose sparkles more…
389 - It does sparkle more.
387 - was he Scottish? (subtle eh?)
379. Brown’s ‘masterstroke’ as Roger put it in part led to the telecoms crash in 2001, licence costs across Europe crippled the smaller networks and led to numerous mergers and vast amounts of debt being taken on by the big players. In the UK many of our networks are now foreign owned, as small (national) companies were no longer considered viable. Cellnet became O2 and now is owned by Telefonica. Mercury One 2 One is now owned by Deutsche Telekom, now called T-Mobile. Orange is now owned by France Telecom.
The treasury may have received ~£22 billion, but British businesses lost jobs and were bought out, 3G was slow to arrive, and ultimately you and I paid for it all.
In telecom circles the spectrum auctions are not considered a masterstroke, more like the kiss of death.
A lack of red meat on the Tory leader’s policy menu is provoking rumblings on the Right, warns Benedict Brogan.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/benedict-brogan/6547110/Is-David-Cameron-a-real-radical-or-just-the-compromise-candidate.html
381 My 379 was too negative to Brown. It was a masterstroke, then. Gordon was a Dutch Tulip merchant and the Teleoms companies were caught up in the belief they had to have a tulip bulb (a G3 licence) to remain players. He did exactly the right thing and paid off debt. Positioned the country well to ride out the recession that others had in 2001 as the UK could better afford to put stimulus into the economy.
If it hadn’t been G3 licences it would have been over-valued acquisitions. Everyone wanted to be Bernie Ebbers, the model of a telecoms entrepreneur. It was the Telecoms companies who lost people their jobs not Gordon Brown.
The fault was that having been prudent, with a couple of errors (Pensions & Gold), he then loosened the reins and let the horse gallop away and the longer term benefits that repayment could have delivered were lost in the credit frenzy of the naughty noughties.
390 - Now I can see how you charmed the pants off her
Tim,
Yes fancy that. Lauding IT as the driver of growth in one breath, then slamming 30 billion of taxes on IT in the next breath.
Only an economic genius could manage that.
382 - Cameron has also blown the last two interviews he’s done (Marr and Today on Pensions) so perhaps he’s so determined to hide his greatness in case we are all too dazzled when it is revealed.
STOP-PRESS
Rain forecast for Glasgow tommorrow!! Yippee!!!
Factor in a windchill of -20 degrees and we could be in for some fun yet.
message for John Smith House -> you may as well just press that big red PANIC button right now
Entertaining thread this one - I have particularly enjoyed the predictable Lib Dem ‘we will never lose any seats anywhere’ posts, and even more the attempts to convince us that selling at the bottom of a market is a good strategy.
Brownland - a strange country where Gordon Brown is still doing well
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6546957/Brownland—a-strange-country-where-Gordon-Brown-is-still-doing-well.html
394 - If you recall the reason the economy went so well for the first couple of years is that Brown said publicly he would stick to Tory spending plans for that time, and did so.
395 - Yes, my charm is legendary.
382: ‘The other theory is that Cameron is pulling his punches, so the Labour party wont remove Brown…’
I think it’s also likely that Cameron felt sorry for Brown, or at least felt queasy about being too harsh. Brown has cut such a shrivelled and broken figure in the last two days that to beat him up at PMQs would feel akin to treading on a fly whose legs have been pulled off. Nevertheless, Brown and Labour are still revoltingly cynical - witness how they’re attempting to pervert understandable public sympathy for a bloke who mucked up a letter of condolence into martyr worship. Dave should be careful. Don’t give this lot anything.
386. Indeed. Its quite tough for Cameron having an opponent is useless as Brown. He has to walk a very, very fine tight-rope between effectively questioning and bullying Mr Brown. I mean personally, I’d love him to wipe the floor with Brown every week because I follow politics and I know there is no more of a political bully than Gordon Brown. He’s been specialising at it for years - But most people don’t follow politics and the last thing we need is for a “Browns being bullied by the toff” narrative to take off as Labour were trying to do at the start of the year.
397 - Sadly, the only two interviews I can remember from conference season are Brown’s interviews with Adam Boulton and Sian Williams.
397 The pension interview would have been “blown” as you put it, only if the amount DC said the policy would save had been spent somewhere else (in the way the non-dom savings are to be spent on IHT). But as it is to be used to pay off the mountain of debt the interview wasn’t blown at all. The direction of travel is clear.
394. I agree that there was merger mania and everyone wanted to be the next Worldcom, but across Europe something like $200 billion was charged for the spectrum licences, and with 3G being inherently more expensive in the 2100 MHz band as it is costs were already daunting. So the licensing did not help matters. Everybody as his dog took on debt and tried to grow as large as possible as fast as possible, paid way over the odds for licenses (there wasn’t much choice if you wanted to stay in business) and then it all went *POP*.
AFAIK there’s no proposal to do a similar cash grab for the digital dividend and 4G spectrum, more modest costs are envisaged.
400 Brown likes Brownland. It’s his Happy Place. In Brownland, he is Always Right, everyone else Always Wrong. His job is secure, the grateful masses will re-elect him for saving not only the Country but also the World. And his bezzy friend Obama phones him up all the time for advice on how to be as popular as Gordon.
Not like in Westminster, where Brown and reality are no longer on speaking terms.
398 -
“Rain forecast for Glasgow tommorrow!! Yippee!!!
Factor in a windchill of -20 degrees and we could be in for some fun yet”
For those of us who don’t know Glasgow, is that good or bad weather for this time of year
408. Your wrong! I don’t need to say why your wrong, but you definatly are wrong, wrong and wrong. Not only are you wrong now, but you’ve always been wrong. And you always will be wrong. Wrong!
398. Heavy rain too and it’s really cold tonight.
407 - so, apart from the gold sales, the pension raid, the 3g license thing, 10p tax, the 0% rise, youth unemployment, (insert Gordon’s screw ups of your choice here), what did Gordon Brown ever do for us?
- with apologies to a Mr. M Python.
From David Jones MP via twitter -
Headline in Guardian: “Mandelson warns of Sun-Tory contract”. Thought at first it was something to do with Japanese whiskey.
He scotched that rumour…… (sorry - I’ll get my coat)
404. If that is true then I wonder if Cameron will go for the jugular in the new year when it will really be too late to oust Brown?
400. So the Telegraph prints an article stating that Gordo lives “in a parallel universe”, but that can’t be true cos Khaooomooooreeeosnfhgtiurlfmcwq* said that during PMQs and Gordo beat him…
* For those who missed it, Khaooomooooreeeosnfhgtiurlfmcwq is SeanT’s suggestion mocking wage slave’s comedic inability to spell Cameron
398
Two words
‘postal votes’
David Cameron’s great ability isn’t so much his PMQs (which are often no more than OK) as his ability to sound sincere when in an interview situation or when tackling subjests such as the NHS.
He’s also able to think on his feet which is going to be a real boon during an election campaign and is why Brown is going to be battered during it. On the stump of a campaign, Cameron is going to absolutely annhiliate him. I couldn’t care less what happens in PMQs. Only we watch it. The evening news for 4 weeks of an election campaign is the important battle ground.
And it won’t be an even battle.
415 Scott P
You missed an ‘o’ from “Khaooomooooreeeosnfhgtiurlfmcwq”.
Cries of “Hold the Front Page” have been heard in Wapping.
Did anyone bet on a March election?
Nick Robinson
“The date of the Pre-Budget Report was announced today as 9th of December. The Code for Fiscal Stability (http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/fiscal_stability.pdf ) which Gordon Brown put into law in 1998, states that there must be “at least three months” between the Pre-Budget Report and the following Budget.
Thus, the earliest possible date for a 2010 Budget is the 9th of March. That is after the latest possible date - 1st of March - on which Gordon Brown could call a March election.”
What a difference a day makes. Gordon Brown has had another personality change. Only the day before, at Downing Street, he was confiding how shy he was. “I am a shy person,” he told us in a voice as soft as a kitten’s fur. Contrast that with Mr Brown yesterday at PMQs — a shouting, ranting bull of a man, steam snorting out of nostrils. We seem to be in a Jekyll and Hyde situation, updated for politics and renamed Heckle and Shy.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6913197.ece
Trying to personally annihilate the English language there…
400 - Once you read Mr Bower’s excellent book on Brown, suddenly you understand why he does what he does and why. It’s not pretty, but in the sense of a law of physics, using Bower’s book you can predict and measure the results and it works.
You just end up wondering how in the world this could happen, and the damage that has been done because of it.
I read it once - it was my bog book and I mainly scanned it in 10 minute intervals - and didn’t remember much of it, but on a re-read it is simply awful to realize the full extent of JGB and what he has cost the country for no good reason.
4419 I think 25th March is more likely than May - decision will be in third week of January. If there is positive GDP growth, which most think there will be, then it’ll be March.
His bare back is still red raw from their freshly-inked names.
But former soldier Shaun Clark had promised to have the name of every troop killed in Afghanistan tattooed on his body in honour of their sacrifice.
And he wasn’t going to back out.
Mr Clark, 43, spent more than four hours in the tattooist’s chair today as each of the 223 names were etched in ink over his chest and back.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226986/Lest-forget-Ex-soldier-223-names-troops-killed-Afghanistan-tattooed-body.html#ixzz0WaX56JME
419. oldnat
Of course, one thing which Nick Robinson and George Osborne’s backroom team seem to have overlooked is that it is entirely possible, in theory, for the Prime Minister to hold a March election and then delay a budget until mid to late April, just as he did this year. Politically that would be highly dangerous as the Conservatives would say that it showed the government was afraid to hold a budget for fear of revealing the parlous state of the economy. But it’s possible to imagine they could just about get away with it. It would be brazen, risky, full of downsides, but I can just imagine Peter Mandelson arguing for it.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/march-election-ruled-out-or-is-it.html
423 - and the Labour Party finances may play their part. Aren’t there local elections next year? Can they afford 2 campaigns? Can Labour put a gun to the unions head?
42 - it’s totally irreverent and tasteless, but I wonder what will happen the next time he strips off for a new girlfriend.
- could bring a new meaning to extended foreplay….
424. Would have been easier if he did it in lots….
Bloody hell. Hope they were all spelt right.
424 - I hope he wont have to add any more names in the future. Sadly I think my hopes are misplaced.
What was the Cameron pensions related story?
…Dave brandished a leaked memo, saying that it held details of future cuts, including fewer apprenticeships. “Doesn’t this leaked memo show that you are planning cuts?” he demanded, savouring the C-word that caused so much angst earlier this year.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6913197.ece
…Gordon raged: “Every time we mention policy, you lose it!” Dave raged right back, looking at the baying Labour MPs and crying: “They know they have a party leader who’s LOST it!” He demanded again that Gordon acknowledge that he is planning cuts.
The mention once again of the C-word was too much for the Prime Minister. He denied it all. He wasn’t cutting apprenticeships but increasing them! He ended by shouting the word “WRONG” half a dozen times at Dave. I have to say that, for a shy person, it was pretty wild…
425 I doubt either Osborne or Robinson are unaware that if there is a March 25th Election there will be no Budget, even if one is announced for 9th March. Parliament would have been dissolved, there will be no MPs though Ministers remain ministers.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Budget wasn’t scheduled for mid/late March even if Brown was planning now on the 25th - leave them guessing.
425 ScottP
Thanks. Hadn’t seen that.
Mind you that would require that the incoming LD UK Government would have to govern without a clue about the finances!
430 - I’m rather afraid I agree with you.
We need to know 3 things:
1. why are we there?
2. what does victory / success look like?
3. How will we know when we’ve got there?
- we don’t know any of them. Neither does Brown.
UKIP leaders hustings.
Fork Andidates
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/other_uk_parties/2009/11/meet-the-four-candidates-to-be-the-next-leader-of-ukip.html
Alan Johnson backs down….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8355898.stm
435. The Channel 4 News special from Coventry tonight covered exactly that ground. Worth a look if it’s available on the web
434. “the incoming LD UK Government would have to govern without a clue about the finances! “
If that was the only thing they were clueless about…
Sorry, was a bit rude of me to pen that long message about the gold sales and then vanish. Anyhow back at home now. There were probably a couple of points I should reply to.
I don’t have any inside information about the process by which Gordon Brown decided to sell the gold and I guess we can speculate, based on other accounts, about his inability to hear others views. I also don’t know the details of the reserve portfolio at the time, but I think it entirely plausible that portfolio allocation advice would have been to rebalance the portfolio with less gold and more long-dated European government bonds in it. That advice would have been a function of the rest of the portfolio and would have taken into account the known and unknown liabilities.
Of course there are other groups of people who may have advised against the sale. I saw some gold traders quoted as advising against it in an earlier quoted article. Well they would wouldn’t they: de Beers would also rather you never sold a diamond.
There were also a couple of comments about selling in stages to avoid freaking the market. Well they did, but it still seemed necessary to pre-warn because each lot was substantial in size (in extremis, they couldn’t have sold an ounce a day!). Again there may have been other ways to minimise the impact on the market, but pre-announcing was not necessarily a bad thing in terms of market surprise and allowing the market to continue to function. There is no way that G. Brown just made the idea up of selling via a set of auctions so there must have been some advice not least in terms of the structure of the auctions.
And as to gold being no different to food, or just like any financial asset. I disagree with the food. People buy food to eat, people buy copper for various electrical and piping applications. A secondary impact is that they may also be able to sell on their food and copper to someone else who wants to pay more.
With financial assets there’s usually only the resale to someone else. However there is almost always a coupon, a dividend or a conversion to ensure that (unless a contract is broken) there is inherent value. Otherwise you may as well be trading tulip bulbs or random numbers for a fortune. One day people could well decide that gold isn’t worth anything and you’d be stuck. But if they decide that bonds aren’t worth anything you can still hold onto them and get your coupon (or go through courts if the promised coupons are not forthcoming).
Lee
438 - being as I’m a deprived resident of the the good ole US of A, what did they conclude?
Guardian
Lance Price - It was the Sun wot spun it
Andrew Sparrow - Mandelson: ‘contract’ between Sun and Tories may undermine BBC impartiality
Looking through the betting lists I suggest there are some seriously deluded gamblers out there.Of the one on the list that I have good knowledge of Llanelli Plaid have as much chance of winning, as Watford have of winning then Champions League.
I can assure you that labour will be throwing then kitchen sink at it to make sure.I’ve got a few bob on labour for that one.
Don’t rule out the Carmarthen West seat either. Labour are not going to let the fox hunter win that without a fight.
434 Wouldn’t bother Brown that Osborne would be stuck with a draft budget prepared to follow through on this December’s PBR. Doesn’t care what happens if he loses - already said it’ll be chaos.
The PBR will be woolly enough for Brown to dance round the Cuts word in the campaign but with enough meat to stave off Standard & Poor & Moodys. The Budget will have to be tough if UK AAA rating is to be retained - message is the rating agencies expect action in 2010/2011. Brown would IMHO face a much greater danger from Budget & GDP than from Cameron claiming he’s cutting and runing before the Budget - DCs been asking for an election for some time.
442. I read that as “depraved resident” and chuckled.
According to this forecast, a drizzly day and a very wet evening in Glasgow
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=glasgow
444 “Looking through the betting lists I suggest there are some seriously deluded gamblers out there…. blah blah blah ”
If you bothered reading other peoples’ postings, then the explanation is there.
436. A very,very limited choice but if they have sense they’ll go for Pearson. He could do Cameron a lot of damage amongst Telegraph readers in a mid term slump. He was superb on free speech over the Fitna fiasco. I think he’d be limited in a recession 2010 election as he is too posh but if as I suspoect we get a second wave of the expenses crisis I think part of the spectrum could yearn for governance by the upper classes again.
Thats funny looking tall woman would get air time.
446 - I could be depraved because I’m deprived
443 - Mandelson’s just making himself look silly. Has he yet answered the point about if he’s so certain that the Sun only backs a political party because of a “contract” then what was the “contract” between them and Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005?
Personally i hope the contract involves scotching the idea of sticking Test cricket back on terrestrial TV for it to whither and die again.
442. Tim B
That the public does not have a clear understanding of the mission, because the mission is ill-defined. Is it, deny territory to Alky-Ada (which it has done), protect women’s rights (in which case it’s not a military mission), deliver democracy (an illegitimate government after a rigged election), protect Pakistan’s nuclear weapons (are they not in the wrong country), stop terrorist attacks (neither 9/11 nor 7/7 were planned in Afghanistan),…?
Without a mission, you can never gather public support, or measure success. The government spin line of “protect British national security” is crap
452 - Where was 9/11 planned then?
448 I lurk on this site a great deal and read some of the more objective posters.I am quite sure that you, like a lot of your comrades have me on ignore, which is fine.
453 Pakistan
451. I disagree. Mandelson is putting the BBC on the board. I note the stats showing BBC heritage brands like “Today”, “Womans Hour” and ” The Archers” had boomed during therecession. The bangers and mash ready meal effect.
The BBC is much loved despite some of the comments here. While suggesting it is under threat from the conservatives is fairly desperate, Labour are fairly desperate. The Drak Lord saw a 24 hour window of oppertunity were a certain sort of medium to high infomation voters thought ill of murdoch and planted a seed in their mind.
I think somethimes Mandelmort is the only one keep the Labour show afloat
New thread
453. The comment on the programme was that all of the pilot training (the bulk of the mission) took place in Germany and America
443 Chris, odd that Mandelson claims News International went over the head of the editor but Murdoch said yesterday that he was sorry the Sun had moved from supporting his good friend Brown but the editors had wanted it.
If it wasn’t Murdoch and it wasn’t the Editor then I can only assume that a Mr Roe of this parish got into the computers and wrote the story & headline, sent it to print, composed an email from Rupert to the Editor and another from the Editor to Rupert and snuck off to the Scottish edition, victorious
so I am advised by a Miss Marple of St Mary’s Mead and her Belgian friend.
452 - Siddique Khan trained in Afghanistan didn’t he?
Evening all, was chatting with a friend today and we realised that first time voters in this election probably won’t remember a Conservative government. There are also going to be a small number of first time voters who won’t have even been alive the last time the Conservatives won an election, anyone born between April 10th-May 5th 1992. Of course nobody under about 40 will remember the last time a Labour government got turfed out on its ear.
******* BETTING POST *******
(Sort Of)
Although I haven’t counted, I suspect that antifrank and I have comfortably more constituency bets than the other four punters included in the listing. This is not because we are more in favour of supporting Bookies’ charitable causes. Rather it is because we have entered into more combination bets, that is to say we’ve actually been MORE cautiously by betting on the two most favoured parties in a particular seat, where because of the disparity at the time between the various bookies odds, this appeared to provide the opportunity a “near certain profit margin of around 25%-30%”(famous last words I know,the case in point at Brighton Pavilion clearly demonstrates, where I’ve backed the Tories and Labour, but not the Greens, probably my one serious mistake, although I still have time to repair the damage if necessary).
This form of betting does not show up in the table as the compiler, Scott P, picked the party on which I had staked the most money, i.e. the favourite, but NOT the other lesser backed bet.
In most cases I had no great conviction (or concern) over who the ultimate winning party might be, I was simply betting on the margin. A somewhat similar position is my book on tomorrow’s by-election at Glasgow NE, where I’m broadly break-even if the SNP should win which they won’t, but I win circa £100 should Labour hold the seat, which they will for sure.
Don’t try looking for these combination opportunities any more, they simply aren’t there since I and a few other others on PB squeezed the value out of them.
I’ve invested around £1,000 on around 20 such seats, if they all come in I win around £275, if 2 go down my profit would be halved, if four go I break even, if 6 go down I gulp! In reality, because I have backed BOTH favourities, its unlikely more than a couple will lose if that, but I remain nervous about the Greens in Brighton I confess and I may need to neutralise that one.
I would really like Mike to run a thread asking PBers to nominate their ONE most confident bet on a particular constituency, preferably because of their particular knowledge and/or on account of special factors.
Perhaps I may kick this off with my own selection for the Tories to gain Dewsbury, no great surprise this one I admit and the best odds are only 4/7 or 0.57/1 with Ladbrokes that’s not a bad return however over 6 months.
My reasons are picking this constituency, which I know well are:
1 Very substantial pro-Tory boundary changes - Baxter gives it to the Tories by 6%.
2) My knowledge of the excellent Tory candidate, Simon Reevell who I’ve met several times (remember that name).
3) Problems encountered by the Labour candidate, Shalid Malik, as regards his expenses although he seems to have been largely cleared.
4) A large potential BNP vote on account of the very large immigrant population.
Good luck if you follow me in!
452 - Agree 100% - you have it absolutely right.
More than once at business meetings I have interrupted wordy presentations or perorations with the simple question “What is the problem we are trying to solve, in a single sentence?” and been met with either blank looks, or “You need to understand that…”, or “it isn’t that simple”, which means they don’t know.
If we have to sacrifice the UK’s life’s blood for a meaningful objective then so be it. But to see these continuous processions of coffins through Wootton Bassett for some vague and woolly feel good premise then I find that objectionable, wrong and indefensible. How can we explain to their next of kin exactly what their noble sacrifice was for?
If we can’t look them in the eye and say exactly why they gave the last full measure of devotion then there is something terribly wrong with the war.
new thread
Hello folks.
Am new to this site. Am just getting into political betting.
Am thinking of buying my dad The Political Punter for xmas. Is it any good?
Also for the record my dad is on a hung parliment at 3/1.
437 there are some very odd people in UKIP. I know they had trouble vetting the 2004 MEPs for crooks but the 2009 bunch of MEPs needed a sanity check.
Not sure about the sex of some.
What do you lot think about Hazel Blears? Personally, I think she’s damaged her chances of re-election in the re-organised Salford & Eccles constituency.
Would love to hear some opinions…