Is this why you should bet on a 38+ by-election turnout?
November 12th, 2009
Does Glenrothes point the way for November by elections?
The weather reports from Glasgow point to a pretty nasty day as voters go to the polls in what is likely to be the last big test of opinion before the general election.
This has led to some pundits to suggest that we are in for a low turnout and, indeed the Ladbrokes price on it being under 38% has tightened since the market went up.
I’m not convinced and have put my money, at 6/4, on it being greater than that percentage.
Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure.
Like that battle Labour have had a long time to prepare for today’s encounter and a big effort has gone on to get more names on the register and more postal votes, which, of course, won’t be affected by the weather.
In the neighbouring Glasgow East by election in July 2008 most people disagreed with my prediction and betting that it would be greater than 40%. It was 42.25% and the contest took place during the city’s traditional holiday period.
Also the idea that the weather can reduce turnout significantly has been knocked on the head time and time again.
The Ladbrokes bet look great value.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Posh nosh!
Bring us a doggy bag.
Be interested to see the postal voting numbers.
Have a great meal Mike - hope they don’t have any of this year’s ‘The Restaurant’ hopefuls serving or cooking
Thanks for saving my sanity!
Well if you have plenty of postal votes to fall back on…..
5 A bit too late to save that addled prune.
6 - Then you’ve run a well organised campaign?
FPT - Took me long enough to write
- Report on the restaurant, Mike, I have a special occasion I need to plan which I was hoping to have there…
31 - Mr Dickson on Smeato:
I mentioned this piece last night. The Scottish Sun gave him two days of splashes and major spreads to launch his campaign and he has written his weekly column throughout the campaign. This is much more coverage than the by-election has got. But reading his columns, I don’t think he’s enjoyed his foray into politics.
On topic:
The decline of The Daily Mirror is proof that people find very little interesting about a paper that attacks only one side regardless of politics or the people at the top. The public are far less party-identified than they were in the 1960s. This is why the Mirror, and its political coverage looks tragically old-fashioned and is heading towards the 1m mark rapidly.
The Mirror website is a complete joke and anyone at Canary Wharf reading this should frankly be ashamed. They recently relaunched a standalone 3am gossip site. It’s real cover your eyes with shock stuff, it’s that bad.
Today’s front page is an embarrassment. But the inside spread with its ‘hot personal photographer’ playschool arrows makes the front page look like ‘Freddie Starr Ate My Hamster’.
The Mirror has enough readers for a brilliant new editor who can add some light and shade to the paper to be able to turn it around as there is definitely room for two proper red-tops in the market. But I think that if they wait until they crash through the 1million floor then they will have joined the Express in the knackers yard.
119 - Wibbler: If cricket is the best weapon they have Sky will lose about 10 West Indian subscribers. The Premier League is the sole plank Sky needs.
131 - Wibbler: The Express and Mirror look well equipped.
Burnley Fans always get gravy with their pies.
Even Glasgow East achieved a 42% turnout last July. I will be joining you in this bet.
Le Manoir aux Quat’ Saisons? You’re always telling us you’re an impoverished pensioner!
(Have a great meal!)
I’m hoping labour win. My fifth bet on politics and my biggest so far. And it will secure the position of the economic genius.
FPT
John Bercow’s wife is going to stand for Labour
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/speakers-wife-to-stand-for-labour.html
14 Sensible woman. Good luck to her.
14, that might damage Bercow’s prospects (but not fatally).
14 - In Buckingham? That would be a great story
14. In St. James Ward, she’ll do well to get into three figures.
16 Morris Dancer
If Farage is to exploit it, he will have to get the news out to Buckingham in a way which does not sound petulant.
An interesting test of UKIP’s media nous.
12 - My French isn’t so good, does that translate as Meals On Wheels?
Le Manoir aux Quat’ Saisons looks wonderful, I would not expect you to take Jacky to anything less than a 2 Stars Michlin noshery. Enjoy your evening Mike.
Heavy rain forecast in Glasgow this afternoon and evening will keep voting low.
Although I don’t live in Glasgow, I don’t get the feeling that there is any spark to the various campaigns. Glasgow is NOT Glenrothes (where Brown was the “local boy made good”)and low turn-outs in Glasgow are the norm.
So, I’ll guess a turnout of just over 29% but I won’t bet on it.
14 - Not that we didn’t know her politics already, but this is golden for Farage.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/griffin-announces-alliance-of-eu-nationalist-parties-1819266.html
23. Agree - will Buckingham be in the next Super 6 prediciton review ?
23 / 25 - why do you folks think this will be useful for Farage?
On topic: Remember turnout includes postal votes, Labour have had plenty of time to organise their GOTV operation, and this is a by-election which they really need to win.
I’ve followed Mike on this; I didn’t think it was value before the odds lengthened, but at 6/4 I reckon it’s probably worth a punt.
Mike,
You old charmer, it’s the most romantic of places !
I trust you will have a wonderful time, the problem is the food looks too beautiful to eat !
Bah, FPT. It took me so long to write this I missed the new thread:-/
202, 211, etc. WRT MOD bonuses - sorry not to go with the flow of ritual denunciation, but a couple of points need to be borne in mind.
Firstly, the bonus structure was imposed on the MOD by the treasury as a cost saving measure. If you read the BBC article already linked to, it makes it clear the bonuses come out of the salary pot not any other budget - however bonuses do not count when it comes to calculating pensions, redundancy payoffs, etc. The bonus may have a high profile and be bad politics (but then, three guesses as to who was running the Treasury when they were brought in…) but they are cheaper in the long run than paying out the same money as salary increases would be. You msy think that MOD civil servants should all work cheap or for free for the sheer privilege of doing the job, but believe it or not they have to feed their families too.
Secondly, the equipment budget and the salary budget are not the same. If the bonus pot was cut the money wouldn’t go to equipment, it would go back to the Treasury. I’ve no idea what it would get spent on there, but I doubt it would be body armour.
Thirdly, if you really want to get angry at waste, there are so many better targets in the MOD (why are we spending ca. £90M each on Typhoons when the Israelis bought the latest model F-15 for less than £4M each? Typhoon may be better - though I wouldn’t bet too much on it - but it’s not 20x better). But this is squarely down to politicians - of all parties - treating the defence budget as mainly a means of providing a de facto subsidy to British industry (though they call it “protecting jobs”) and only secondarily at best as a means of equipping the armed forces. By comparison with this sort of waste the bonus pot is barely a rounding error. Read “Lions, Donkeys, and Dinosaurs” by Lewis Page to get a better feel of this sort of thing.
24 - If someone from the BNP intends going on to Wikipedia and expunging that lots Nazi past they’ll be there for a while.
29 - It was worth the reposting. Some people are only happy when their knees are jerking.
Yesterday’s EDP carries details of yet another Tory selection row, this time in Mid Suffolk and Ipswich, where once again they are getting in a right ‘Pickle’.
How long will it be before the succession of such headlines in the local and regional press starts to hurt them?
20.
Tim, Lol
You can be funny sometimes (very very rare occassions minded), without being nasty.
Why can’t you take life less seriously, more often ?
32. 2016 ?
26 Neil
Assuming you are seriously asking that question: I don’t think Labour is particularly popular in Buckingham!
Tim the BNP expunging their nazi pasts would be a doddle of a task in comparison to the labour party’s leaders having to expunge their communists pasts!
29 Excellent post.
FPT.
Bwrcows wife to stand for Labour.
Where is Nigel farage when you need him?
This will set the cat among the Tory pigeons.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/speakers-wife-to-stand-for-labour.html
by weathercock November 12th, 2009 at 11:13 am
37 - But she’s not standing in Buckingham though is she or even as an MP, but a councillor in London? I’m struggling to see how that helps Farage in Buckingham?
20 tim - Plenty of wheels there, but they are mainly Jags and Mercs.
Mike, will you be using the helipad at the Four seasons?
Good outsiders view report from John Harris on the guardian website. The reaction to the BNP in Springburn where many asylum seekers are locted is particularly illuminating for those considering a punt on the BNP.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/nov/12/glasgow-north-east-byelection-byelections
Similarly the votes of the large newly arrived immigrant population in Springburn/Sighthill which I’ve seen as earmarked for Labour could go to Eileen Baxendale for the Libs who was co-ordinator of a large Church run refugee centre in Glasgow and has a loyal following amongst this community.
11.20 sun is still shining in Glasgow
34. No, next year. Despite the strong Tory performance, individual MPs are still vulnerable after the expenses scandal. Look East will be at it tonight, comparing and contrasting Ms. Truss and the ‘Ipswich 6′. It just gives those thinking of voting for UKIP where they have a Tory MP who has been damaged an additional excuse.
Look out for a few surprises where there is expenses-damaged Tory MP, a strong LD vote and candidate, a high residual Labour vote and a UKIP candidate.
I feel that while the Polls are accurate overall, there will be not just strong regional variations, but also massive local ones which we should be on the lookout for in the individual seats markets. Sadly some of these do not as yet feature in the betting markets.
38. I can just see the line Farage will take:
“Vote for a Bercow and get Labour” ………Not only that………
Vote Bercow and get two Labour politicians.
43 weathercock How about the Farage line that “you cannot get a fag paper between the two main parties”?
43 - I doubt Farage would stoop so low as to bring Bercow’s wife into the campaign. It would be totally counterproductive in any case.
I think it’s a shame that Bercow’s wife will affect Bercow’s standing. I’m not really in favour of judging people by the views of people to whom they are related by blodd or marriage.
45 - Agreed, and plus when it comes to expenses, UKIP arent exactly pure and innocent angels are they.
45, think so? I’m not so sure. Imagine if Female Colleague Number One or Samantha Cameron were to stand for the Lib Dems. Wouldn’t do the Tories or Labour much good.
Sun is shining here in Glasgow but the rain won’t be far away! As for turnout, the equivalent Scottish Parliament seat is Springburn where turnout in 2007 was 37.5%, same in 2003 and even for the first Scottish Parlaiment election in 1999 turnout was just 41%. This WILL be a low poll, however with the amount of postal votes being handed over by Labout, maybe the postal vote returns will be remarakbly healthy! I expect overall Turnout to be below 30%, I would guess 28%.
48 - Yes, I really think so.
So if you vote Bercow in either case you don’t get a Conservative representing you ?
50, I do think it’ll hit Bercow, but he should still comfortably win.
43 - UKIP struggle to attract women voters as it is, I doubt that the preumption that a wife should share the politics of the husband will be something Farage wants to push that argument too far.
Particularly given his penchant for Pole dancing Latvians.
For there was this Latvian woman called Liga who kissed and told on Mr Farage to the News of the World a year ago. As the newspaper described the alleged event, his “European UNION” was a marathon night during which he “begged her to get MaaSTRICHT with him”.
For the first time, Mr Farage looked a little embarrassed. “Okay I’ve got to defend myself on that . . . That particular situation happened because I had too much to drink. Just as simple as that. Not clever.”
And, as he had insisted to the News of the World and his wife, he had fallen asleep at her house and she had invented all the rest? “Unbelievable,” he agreed. Mmm.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1495044.ece
This is the full list of candidates standing in todays election. Why no UKIP though?
Charlie Baillie, British National Party
Willie Bain, Labour
Eileen Baxendale, Liberal Democrats
Mev Brown, independent
Colin Campbell, The Individuals Labour and Tory (TILT)
Ruth Davidson, Conservative
David Doherty, Green Party
Mikey Hughes
David Kerr, SNP
Louise McDaid, Socialist Labour Party
Kevin McVey, Scottish Socialist Party - Make Greed History
Tommy Sheridan, Solidarity
John Smeaton, Jury Team
In addition how could Bercow still be completly independent when his wife could be (although unlikely) a MP for one of the parties. I can imagine the shouting in the house if that happened.
49 - “however with the amount of postal votes being handed over by Labout, maybe the postal vote returns will be remarakbly healthy!”
Just Labour?! Rather silly of the SNP not to be trying to get their own vote out this way, dont you think?
49.
Really, as low as that - not good for Labour ?
53 - Pah, I see Mr Farage has used some of my excuses.
58, surprised you never met him at one of your many seminars
52 - How will people even know about it for it to hurt Bercow? People dont follow these things in detail. To find olut about it Farage or someone else would have to raise it. That would be hugely counterproductive, dont you think? To be seen to be using the views of an opponent’s wife against them?
55 - Didnt you read the article?
59 - Nope, Nigel Farage is to moderate on Europe for my tastes.
60, it’s not her views that matter, it’s her party political status for a nominative Tory MP who got the Speakership because Labour backed him en mass to try and annoy the Tories, in a constituency where (apparently) the Tories are loved and Labour are loathed.
62 - Yeah, I dont think attacking an opponent for his wife’s “party political status” will go down any better than attacking him for her “views”.
60: Opps..local elctions not HoC…my mistake, but maybe her ambitions are higher.
61 - He seems to be able to get Latvian and Pole into the same bite sized sentenced that I can only aspire to.
Mike S. I’ve e-mailed you the article.
63 - If only someone had told Damian McBride that.
64 - Given the ward she is standing in I doubt she has great political ambitions.
63, but it may amplify fears about his lack of neutrality.
Anyway, we shall see.
They are some of the most memorable and stirring words of the 20th century, but Churchill’s speech exhorting the British to “fight on the beaches” would fail if submitted as a school essay and subjected to a proposed computerised marking system.
The wartime leader had a style that was too repetitive, according to the computer being tested for the online marking of school qualifications.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/education/article6913318.ece
No mention if Gordo’s speeches have been analysed, if it thought Churchill was too repetitive, maybe they didn’t dare test it on a Brown masterpiece.
Should be noted, that Mrs Farage is paid upto 30grand a year by Mr Farage to be his secretary.
People in glass houses….
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6382831.ece
69 - Surely all but the most idiotic Bercow haters have given up flogging that one.
He seems to slap down members of different parties with equal glee.
72 - It applies to all ’speakers’ Tim, not just Bercow.
Of course the SNP have made a huge effore for the postal votes also, however Labour will be well ahead on postals I would safely guess, regardless of the final outcome. Yes turnout will be low here, one lady who when approached to ask if she would be voting SNP at the by-election said: ” Naw son we don’t do politics here….we vote Labour” this gives you an idea about some sections of this constituency. This constituency is not Glenrothes, where Brown enjoyed a “local” bounce and there has been a long-standing level of a real competition at election time, nor is it Glasgow East on a warm July day, which undoubtedly helped turnout, this is a cold November day in some of the roughest housing estates in the UK, where after generations of Labour rule people are terrified to come out after dusk, in fear of who is lurking in their close. It is a complete travesty this area is in the state it is in, especially after 12 years of a Labour Govt at Westminster. The usual high point for turnout at 6-8pm in most constituencies will be interesting- Labour’s vote needs to come out before 5pm or they are in trouble, those who will be voting after work and taking the trouble to do so on a cold and almost certainly wet evening, won’t be backing Gordon Brown I am sure!
I’ve got to say that I can’t see turnout being above 35% and probably lower. Glasgow East’s 42% is a more reliable figure than the 52% of Glenrothes but this by-election has had nothing like the publicity which surrounded Glasgow East.
The disaffection with politics will be tested on todays turnout figure. If turnout in Norwich North was 45.9% down from 61% at the GE then surely the 45.8% turnout at the GE in Glasgow NE will similarly plummet.
The band of weather due to hit Glasgow is now over the Irish sea and approaching the West coast of Scotland. Still on course for landfall in Springburn for 3.00pm
56 I doubt if there is any other party that shares Labour’s ability to get out the postal vote.
>The rest of the day on PB. Jacky and I are just off to Oxford for dinner and to spend the night at Le Manoir aux Quat’ Saisons.
Glad the business model is working…
63 Neil
That’s why I said it was a test of UKIP’s media strategy.
If they can get some third-party (either local press, or a local independent/”minor” minor party candidate) to raise the issue without being seen to do so themselves) it could help them.
76 - I dont have the figures to hand. Did the Conservatives not beat Labour in the postal votes for the 2008 London Mayor and Assembly elections?
I can see this giving the withdrawal movement a boost
The US ambassador in Kabul has warned against plans to send tens of thousands more troops to Afghanistan, until President Hamid Karzai’s government demonstrates that it is willing to tackle the corruption.
Karl Eikenberry sent two classified cables to Washington in the past week expressing his concern over proposals to deploy as many as 40,000 extra troops while the Karzai government remains dogged by accusations of incompetence and corruption, according to reports from Washington.
The existence of the memos was revealed as Barack Obama held a war council at the White House to discuss the final four options for deployment of extra US troops in an effort to stave off defeat at the hands of the Taliban.
Eikenberry is a former US commander in Afghanistan and his caution over a further troop build-up puts him at odd with senior generals in the Pentagon.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/12/us-envoy-objects-afghan-surge
77 - Yeah, I really dont see that working too well.
Gordon Brown called Rupert Murdoch earlier this week to express concern at The Sun’s campaign against the government’s handling of the Afghanistan war.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab2286c2-cf02-11de-8a4b-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
60
Thats a very blinkered view to take Neil. DO you really think that it is necessary for the candidates or even those close to them to say anything for it top become very commonly known public knowledge? There are more than enough people out there who will be more than happy to make sure this is widely known prior to the election.
One of the joys of the internet.
FPT 282 I missed the new thread is it right to repost? - “… but the issue was not the decision to sell a huge load of gold per se, but rather Broon’s utterly stupid pre-announcement that he was about to do so.
This was guaranteed to reduce the price and hence the proceeds of the sale, no matter what the price level or trend prevailing.”
Some have definitely argued that it was the decision to sell the gold at all, or to sell it at that point in time which was the problem, rather than the means of sale. I’ve not seen anybody suggest an alternative means of sale either (although there are a few).
The sale of a large quantity of anything is bound to reduce the price. If you wanted to sell 3% of a FTSE 100 company, you would probably have to take a discount of 5-10% to the current prevailing market price. The thing to do is to try to minimise this discount. There are several ways to do this. Definitely the worst thing to do would have been to sell as much as you could each day because that would have dried up any buyers pretty quickly.
Let’s put it in betting terms. You are making a market on betfair laying 40/1 for something you think really unlikely. You get hit. You put a new price up at 39/1. You get hit again. You put a new price up at 35/1 you get hit immediately. What would you do next? I suggested you’d pause and think about what is going on. Is there someone prepared to bet at any price. How much do they have to invest. Should you wait? Much uncertainty. Uncertainty is very bad for markets.
The interesting thing of course, is that if the amount being sold is small compared to the volumes already being traded (which it looks more like it is today, gold volumes are massively up) then it doesn’t really matter if you pre announce or just start selling. Pre announcing doesn’t matter if you’re doing it into a liquid market because, whilst someone might like to take advantage of the information you’ve given, someone else will just want to take it at the prevailing price. If it’s enough size where the pre-annoucing matters then just selling would have skewed the price too.
For anyone really interest in this stuff, which is called market microstructure, essentially the theory of how the equilibrium between buyers and sellers is realised the best book is called “Market Microstructure Theory” by Maureen O’hara. I have a copy here on my desk and it has a great line: liquidity is like pornography… (I’ll leave it as an exercise to finish the quote).
So I don’t agree that the auction and pre-announcement was guaranteed to reduce the price any more than the actual selling itself (although it certainly might have, we will never know what the other options for selling might have done - there might have been other imaginitive options like selling the gold to a company and selling that company to retail investors).
81 - if you cant view that article in full because of the FT’s paywall, copy and the paste the following into google, and you’ll be able to view the article for free
“Brown calls Murdoch over Sun treatment”
Scream - how was your meeting yesterday ?
82 - It would be counterproductive to try to attack him on this regardless of the source of the attack.
85 - Went well.
83 - It’s never wrong to repost something that a lot of people could learn from.
88. Was you know who you know who ?
83 Thanks Lee
A number of people who missed your interesting posts on this fascinating subject will be grateful for the repost.
81 Saw that earlier - given Gordon’s reported habit of calling Editors late a night I did wonder if the Sun had recordings of Brown calling the Sun Editor, Brown calling Rupert, Mandelson calling Rebekah (phoning I mean not calling her a chump), Mandelson calling Elizabeth Freud, Sarah calling Wendi etc
Bet Cameron didn’t call anyone at Trinity Mirror.
Not sure why Cameron pays for a photographer, the Mirror seems to have on following him on permanent basis (car following bike, running red lights. having bike stolen) - surely a sharing arrangement would save both sides cash?
89 - Fortunately not. Much to my relief. It restored in my faith in people called Senior.
“Gordon Brown called Rupert Murdoch earlier this week to express concern at The Sun’s campaign against the government’s handling of the Afghanistan war.”
Now, that’s a bit silly.
91 - I think, whenever anyone mentions the Mirror in a post, they should also put this link in their post
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CSUPQ7EpU_4/SBSw1QqksAI/AAAAAAAAPyU/QDMAUYq5iY8/S1600-R/mirror+hoax+oxy.jpg
81 - I hope he didn’t call him a ccccuu…..chump.
83/90 I think the criticism at the time (IIRC) was selling on a falling market - as somene else posted previous Governments had sold gold but on a rising market towards the peak. Timing was the issue back then, the stuff about pre-annoucing was added after gold started to rise again and it became apparent that over a two decade span Gordon had off loaded gold at the bottom.
81 - From that article
“James Murdoch, chief executive of News Corp in Europe and Asia, and Rebekah Brooks, News International’s chief executive and a former Sun editor, on Tuesday sought a meeting with a senior minister, according to one government insider. News International declined to comment”
Anyone want to guess the identity of the senior Minister?
Am I alone in being bothered that the BBC reported that the BNP was allying itself with “nationalists” in the European Parliament.
If I’d been eating it I would have choked on my leek porridge!
I’m sure as I can be that neither PC nor the SNP will have anything to do with Nasty Nick, but I’m less sure about the BBC’s agenda.
“Thirdly, if you really want to get angry at waste, there are so many better targets in the MOD (why are we spending ca. £90M each on Typhoons when the Israelis bought the latest model F-15 for less than £4M each.”
Random @ 11:10 am.
Maybe the Israelis bought ‘wholesale !’
In other news, Sarah Brown’s lady globes are absolutely not props, and nor does she like hanging around with celebrities:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1227022/Sarah-Brown-steals-the-stars-descend-red-carpet-Cosmo-Awards.html
Is voting Labour in Glasgow social and economic suicide? Glasgow North-East and Edward Bernays. How to get Turkeys to vote for christmas..
http://scotlandunspun.blogspot.com/
News today that Sky is going to lose the right to exclusively show England’s home cricket tests. When The Sun dumped Labour there was a feeling that the government would get back at Murdoch in ways like this. I suspect that this announcement has been in the pipelinefor some time but some people will draw that
conclusion.
Sky will be able to have exclusive rights to the Derby and RL Challenge Cup final so that should weaken the conspiracy argument
97 “Oh Mandy, You came and you gave without taking…”
Mr Eagles, TBH I’d take a comment from a ‘government insider’ with pinch of salt.
83. “So I don’t agree that the auction and pre-announcement was guaranteed to reduce the price any more than the actual selling itself (although it certainly might have, we will never know what the other options for selling might have done - there might have been other imaginitive options like selling the gold to a company and selling that company to retail investors).”
He could simply have done what EVERY OTHER central bank selling gold did of course - sell it quietly without forewarning the markets and only announce the sales afterwards of course.
“The decision to auction the gold rather than sell it quietly on the global markets also surprised many experts. Other central banks, including those of Switzerland and Australia, have chosen to use the normal markets to sell gold and only announce the details of the sales afterwards. By contrast, from the announcement of the British sell-off in May to the first auction in July, the gold price dropped by 10%.”
From http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1655001.ece
Along with a lot of other good stuff. The gold sale was a blunder of historic precautions, however you excuse it.
About ruddy time Old Trafford got sorted out instead of bleating about Cardiff.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/counties/lancashire/8356071.stm
100 She needs a new fashion adviser.
94 - Is posting that any more relevant than the Suns coverage of Hillsborough being brought into any discussion involving the Sun?
I doubt it, Theres a time when a point about the papers relative histories or the merits of Kelvin Mackenzie or Piers Morgan are going to be justified, but I don’t think an obligatory reference is valid in all cases.
Stephen Fry’s definition of Countryside is interchangeable with MacKenzie or Morgan, but they’ve both gone now.
La Manoir - Good grief Mike, you must be making some serious money these days - or perhaps someone else is picking up the tab?
96. He was warned about pre-announcing at the time. from the article already linked:
“GATHERED around a table in one of the Bank of England’s grand meeting rooms, the select group of Britain’s top gold traders could not believe what they were being told.
It was May 1999 and the gold price had stagnated for much of the decade. The traders present — including senior executives from at least two big investment banks — warned that Brown, who was not at the meeting, could barely have chosen a worse moment.
In the room, just behind the governor’s main office, they cautioned that gold traditionally moved in decades-long cycles and that the price was likely to increase. They added that even if the sale were to go ahead, the timings and amounts should not be announced, as the gold price would plunge.
“The timing of the decision was ludicrous. We told them you are going to push the gold price down before you sell,” said Peter Fava, then head of precious metal dealing at HSBC who was present at the meeting. “We thought it was a disastrous decision; we couldn’t understand it. We brought up a lot of potential problems at the meeting.” “
104 - “He could simply have done what EVERY OTHER central bank selling gold did of course - sell it quietly without forewarning the markets and only announce the sales afterwards of course”
Exactly, and that is why the rest of the argument falls down. As Guido reported at the time, the city dumped gold immediately prior to the sale, depressing the market further. It was appallingly handled and through away billions.
108 Other punters pay
Guido catches up with PB
http://order-order.com/2009/11/12/mirror-reflecting-sun/
29 - absolutely on the button there, no criticism at all. An easy source of revenue would to restrict/cull all the pointless HR malarkey.
108 PfP - Advance payment from Ashcroft?
108 ……. meanwhile, it’s the Hare & Hounds in East Sheen for me this evening and very nice it is too!
Sensible stuff from Dennis McShane.
(i know you all love that sentence)
When I, as a man on the left, am asked to condemn remarks on Jews from fellow left wingers like Ken Livingtone or George Galloway, I do so irrespective of my political affiliations. Conservative commentators who pretend K*minski or his Latvian chum Roberts Zile have no questions to answer and that the row is invented by Labour are just plain wrong.
http://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/21826/tories-drop-your-euro-allies
114 Richard - buying PB, you mean?
Tick that one off the Daily Play Bingo card.
105- If the London based cricket organisation wanted to give Cardiff a test match they could have given one of the two London ones.
I must be in the wrong game. Just a humble vegetarian sushi for me followed by scallops,designer mushrooms and rice.All washed down with a very humble bottle of a very modest Portugeezer.
Must try harder.
On thread I’m genuinely torn on the turnout issue here - I can see strong arguments in both directions above and am unwilling to pull the trigger either way. I guess that suggests the market pricing is reasonably fair - some more on-the-ground info will be useful as the day proceeds, I guess….
116- Tim, read, shut up
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/21/labour-europe-kaminski-poland
119 - Sorry Bob, I’m from the NW and Old Trafford is a shitheap that has been left to rot by LCC.
They deserve all they get until they get their act together.
123- the ground isn’t good, but there’s no need to punish the fans just so London gets to have two ashes test matches
122 - Citing Harry Phibbs in a discussion about extremism is an odd one Bob.
You do know why the FCS was disbanded by Tebbit don’t you?
119 - Whilst it might be London based, it’s run by the Welsh.
OT for those betting on The Sainted Tone, Milibanana, The Baroness, or even the PoD himself
The process to pick the two new EU jobs - that of Council President and High Representative - is nearing completion and Britain looks set to walk away empty-handed.
Tony Blair’s candidacy is unacceptable to many EU leaders - both because of his record, particularly over the Iraq War, and because of Britain’s odd-man status in Europe. Last night at the Queen’s Diplomatic Reception, a senior ambassador remarked to me that if Blair had really wanted the EU job, he should have started lobbying for it a few years ago - or at least shown a post-No 10 interest in European affairs. Blair, said the envoy, could have given a speech in Berlin, an interview in a French paper and so on. But he did not.
David Milliband, in turn, could probably have walked off with the High Representative’s job, and seemed to have considered the prospect seriously early on. Whether he ruled himself out because he fancies his chances in a post-election leadership contest, cares more about domestic politics than foreign policy or was blocked by the PM - for fear of the government looking even more doomed if the heir presumptive bailed - is not clear.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5532668/no-brits-likely-in-top-eu-jobs.thtml
125- do you want to comment on Labour’s distasteful allies Tim?
Addressing the wider immigration debate, Mr Brown added: “I have never agreed with the lazy elitism that dismisses immigration as an issue, or portrays anyone who has concerns about immigration as a racist. Immigration is not an issue for fringe parties nor a taboo subject.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8356226.stm
Well that is the usual Labour defence out the window then.
Oh, for pity’s sake, not another thread - the 20th? - about to be derailed by tim’s obsession (no 198) on Tories, Latvia and Poland.
123- Circa 1949 I sat on the grass with my old man to watch a Roses match.
There were fully 30,000 souls assembled and my old feller had probably never previously sat on grass in his whole life.
We had them 14-4 with Brian Statham bowling.
Is anyone else having problems with UK polling report today?
Too late! Ladbrokes have closed the market
128 - Of course, they’re obnoxious individuals and all parties contain one or two, the existence of the Nazi Alan Clark did not invalidate the entire Tory Party.
If they’d made him their leader it would have done.
The Tories sought out these people and elevetad one to leadership of their group.
Now read about Phibbs.
Good luck with your bet, Mike. From the outside it looks a 50/50 call, so 6/4 is the price to follow.
O/T - a big thanks to the NHS for cancelling my father’s much-needed heart operation for the THIRD time today, on this occasion just an hour before it was due to take place. Still, envy of the world, and all that.
132 - is working fine for me.
130 - No its not, I posted one link.
Blame the herd
131 - The ground is now a total shambles, while the rest of anchester has moved forward Old Trafford Cricket ground has gone backwards.
Am I missing something. Surely the “crime” would have been to release the pictures? Have they appeared anywhere other than the Mirror? If they were purely for the record, what is the problem?
115 Airport lounge and Virgin Airways (Economy alas) nosh for me..
Also, on the immigration debate, not sure framing as reducing the number of “professionals” allowed in from non-EU really addresses lots of peoples concerns.
Not sure that many people object to a managed system where a certain number of scientists, doctors, chartered engineers, etc i.e highly educated highly skilled individuals come to the uk. The concern is more the large number of poorly educated, unskilled individuals who have been allowed to settle, when we already have a hard core of similar people on long term benefits.
O/T and further to the discussion of the 2012 US Presidentials the other evening, it looks like Pawlenty definitely has his hat in the ring.
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/11/11/absurdly-premature-2012-watch-vol-i-who-s-afraid-of-tim-pawlenty.aspx
I’m not a backer myself but I definitely would not be a layer. One to watch.
Come on Shadsy, surely the mighty Ladbrokes isn’t frightened off by PB.com? Let’s have a two way market on today’s turnout.
140 we’ve got to keep those US Bankers out - it started in America you know.
140. Well as usual Labour’s partisan interests are being revealed here rather than the interests of the country more generally.
134- oh I understand, because it’s Labour it’s ok, and what about the obnoxious parties Tim? This is what you get from having a European Parliament, parties have to ally with people they dislike and that includes Labour. You’re constant childish and partisan attacks won’t change the fact that all parties in the EU parliament are in the same boat.
Have checked wikipedia on Phibbs, it mentions no accusations against him, if there were it wouldn’t affect the fact that Labour are in cahoots with a thoroughly disgusting group of people.
138 - I think they were “released” onto Cameron’s flickr photo-stream, just like Gordo has similar ones of him and the misses on the #10 photo-stream.
140 (addition)
hard core of similar people on long term benefits….who were born in the UK.
Darn - looks like I am too late to claim points for spotting our PB timbot buzzword pool - see below…maybe next time - Well done to Oracle for winning at 118
Smears about Poland ** Post 116 **
Smears about Latvia ** Post 116 **
Smears about drug use
Smears about Bullingdon
Smears about George Osborne
Smears about William Hague
Smears about not having policies
Smears about having policies but hiding them
Quoting something irrelevant from 10+ years ago
Smears about Eurosceptics running the tories
Smears about Eurosceptics splitting the tories
Smears about people with ‘posh’ names
Inane waffling about the FTSE on days it is up
Smearing a PB poster instead of replying to a question
Smearing about Ashcroft
Smearing about Nadine
Smearing about private education
Smearing about photo-opportunities
141 PTP - whilst you’re there, I’ve added Dewsbury to my list of bets (as a Tory gain) and issued a betting post for this seat - see last night’s thread approximately #57.
Talking of photo’s and cameramen, does anyone remember the uncropped photo of that Buddist monk setting fire to himself? In the background there was another buddist monk taking a photo. Chilling
OT- Anyone watch The Daily Show last night? If so, am I naive in thinking Fox News could sink that low? How can they get away with blatant lying? Can’t the FCC or someone sanction them for that?
132: You shouldn’t be! Working alright from my end
Bob - Do you know nothing about the history of your Party?
Google Phibbs, Macmillan, Tebbit and educate yourself
110,109,104. I think we’ve probably done this to death now so only one more post I think. I think we’re definitely getting into areas where there is no right answer people will have different views on the impact of a large transaction on a particular market. I think I know what we’d have to consider when selling a large amount of most assets - we have trouble with even what’s probably regarded as the most liquid product, but I’m not an expert on gold liquidity. If I needed to sell 100 tons of gold today, I’d know enought to ask for advice.
In terms of the reported advice though, it’s obvious to me that we’re only getting half of the history. It’s much easier for the half who, with the benefit of hindsight, have turned out to be right to get column inches for their recollections. It is inconceivable to me that Brown would have done the gold sale in the way he did with no advice to do so. Moreover most of those being quoted are suggesting that their advice was more along the lines of don’t sell, rather than if you’re going to sell, sell in this way.
Pre-announcing can indeed be bad for market liqudity, but it can also be postitive in that it reduces uncertainty. There seems little doubt that the price was depressed during the sale period but we’ll never know if that was down to other factors, the sale itself or the pre-announcement. It’s not at all clear to me that pre-announcing and auctioning was the wrong thing to do (in fact I think once you went for an auction you had to pre-announce) but there may have been more efficient alternatives. There may have been alternatives that gave a better price but putting $ into investment banks as they would have been taking risks.
There is also a political question: is it appropriate to do something like this without informing parliament first? I take the view that Brown is borderline contemptuous for the parliamentary process so I doubt this entered his head, but might be relevant.
Pre-announcing can also be completely irrelevant. I have told many people that I plan to sell my company shares when they vest in January. But that is as close to 0% of the outstanding as makes no difference. Even if I put an advert in the FT it isn’t going to depress the price.
All I’m really saying is that if an amount to sell is enough to depress the price just by being announced then it needs special consideration when it comes to the transaction. You can’t assume it’s easy or that there is a “best” way to execute the transaction.
140 Oracle
Exactly. As someone who is unashamedly pro-immigration, Labour’s handling of the issue fills me with despair.
Gordon Brown is massively cutting down on the sort of people we need. At the same time, people who can’t speak English, and often have no skills whatsoever, come here for “marriage”, sometimes without knowing or even seeing their spouse first.
I see no reason why marriage should give foreigners an automatic entitlement to British residency. At most, it deserves a small bonus in any points-based system.
137 Come on TIMBOT, enough of this nonsense. Where are the wine investment tips? I’m really looking forward to reading how one makes money as the market peaks. Did you give the Blairs advice on property speculation?
153 tim-very hard on Supermac. I liked his joke about the Etonians and the Estonians.
153- if you have an accusation that you wish to make about Harry Phibbs I can’t understand why you are being so reticent about it. You rarely hesitate before smearing people. I suspect that you are just trying to wriggle away from the main issue, that some of Labour’s European allies are sick.
155 Wibbler - unfettered immigration? Don’t despair, Brown is only going to be around for less than another six months and rest assured the illegals will still be entering in their droves.
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned the post on Welsh Politics on PB2 by Meurig yet, it seems to be a very good analysis of the situation there.
Sorry, that turnout option is back up again now. The sheer volume of OGH’s followers piling on caused a temporary outage.
Still 1/2 Under 38%
6/4 Over.
154 - “It is inconceivable to me that Brown would have done the gold sale in the way he did with no advice to do so”
He did and ignored it.
“You can’t assume it’s easy or that there is a “best” way to execute the transaction”
Nonsense, it’s hardly a new phenomenon, gold has been sold for centuries on the open market, no one would recommend doing what Gordon did.
149 Noted with thanks, PfP.
162 - “He did and ignored it.”
Really? A rather incredible claim. Can you back it up?
159 Peter from Putney
The Conservative policies on immigration doesn’t fill me with great confidence. A yearly cap on non-EU migrants is a fairly pointless stunt.
158 - Phibbs wanted MacMillan chucked out of the Tory Party for being a war criminal.
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=RO68vOwPd6UC&pg=PA44&dq=harry+phibbs+norman+tebbit+FCS#v=onepage&q=harry%20phibbs%20norman%20tebbit%20FCS&f=false
If you wan’t to find a source on extremism in Europe, Phibbs aint your man
164: 1) He was adviced not to pre-announce: FACT
2) He did pre-announce and sell:FACT
Don’t see the problem here.
167 - You wouldnt see the problem with the claim though, would you? Have you any idea how government works?
What’s that burning rubber smell?
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for Sun newspaper owner Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street has said.
The Tory-supporting paper has been highly critical of Mr Brown over the equipment to troops in Afghanistan and a letter he wrote to a bereaved mother.
It has been reported that Mr Brown telephoned Mr Murdoch to complain but a spokesman did not confirm or deny this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8356840.stm
161- have now got £10 on turnout >38% and £10 on Con in 3rd place.
This week’s QT Panel: Shaun Woodward, Pauline Neville-Jones, Julia Goldsworthy, Will Self, James Cracknell
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/8355256.stm
166- Tim, still trying to dodge the issue I see. Regardless of his own history, what he says is still true. You’re lot are in bed with a group of disgusting individuals and parties. Labour should be ashamed of themselves.
Back to work now…
161 Shadsy not fazed by PB.com piling in, eh?
I fear I shouldn’t have followed Mike after all…
“It has been reported that Mr Brown telephoned Mr Murdoch to complain but a spokesman did not confirm or deny this.”
So it’s true then.
171, I just hope it was less dire than last week.
171. Yuk. Will Self and Shaun Woodward. Think I’ll give this one a miss.
171 - that’ll be interesting; I can’t think of two individuals more enshrined in their own anuses than Shaun Woodward and Will Self.
169.
One for Labour supporters to savour.
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for Sun newspaper owner Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street has said.”
So good we should have it again.
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for Sun newspaper owner Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street has said.”
Tom Levitt (Labour MP for High Peak) to stand down at GE
http://www.tomlevitt.org.uk/statement-by-tom-levitt-mp-on-future-plans-12-november-2009
Relevant expenses story
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375618/Wreath-laid-at-war-memorial-claimed-on-MPs-expenses.html
178 “Prime Minister Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for Sun newspaper owner Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street has said.”
So why all the fuss earlier this week then? Did the reported telephone conversation not go quite the way Mandy/Brown expected?
Thing is, doesn’t Rupert Murdoch still like Brown? It’s his son who likes Cameron
119 - That forgets that Lords and The Oval are great venues whereas Old Trafford is a toilet. I have no axe to grind against OT as it used to be my nearest ground and the first three Tests I saw were all there. But is IS a tip.
Delingpole on the fence
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100016500/is-edward-mcmillan-scott-the-most-tedious-annoying-and-ghastly-member-in-the-entire-euro-parliament/
He was the man who did most to promulgate the canard that the Tories’ European ally Michal Kaminski was an anti-Semite – a charge Ed Miliband and the left-liberal media naturally seized on with alacrity. Pity Poland’s chief Rabbi (who happens to be Jewish) had to go and ruin the story by rising to Kaminski’s defence.
Just make it a 6 test series and keep the two London tests. I’m not biased…(OK I am)
Rummaging around, I find that I have slips with Victor Chandler at 16/1 for turnout under 20% and 7/1 for turnout under 30%. I clearly must have had a rush of blood (or alcohol) to the head.
HamiltonNat has cruelly given me hope at 49. I can cope with the despair…
183 - I’d happily watch 9 home Tests a year so all the current Test grounds got one but most cricket ‘fans’ want to see pretend pyjama cricket all year.
Watch the ‘crowds’ at the SA Tests and despair for the future of the game. There will be more holidaying Brits in Centurian than there weill be Saffers. Tragic.
John Humphrys is going to take over from David Dimbleby as QT host tonight, because Dimbleby has been attacked by a bullock!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/pm/2009/11/david_dimbleby_has_been_attack.shtml
What a load of bull.
Weather still looks OK in Glasgow - only light rain 15.00 to 18.00:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/6
Rumours that the bullock backs the BNP are wildly exaggerated.
187 David Roe
That story must be a Sun headline writer’s dream…
178.
Rupert had the ‘lord of darkness personal file’ open and probably quoted a few select passages over the phone …
I wonder if Woodward will go on and on about ‘3,000 richest estates’…?
186 - Why Humphrys, wasn’t the bullock available?
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for Sun newspaper owner Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street has said.
83 (et al). The rational thing to do if there is a need to rebalance a portfolio is to do so incrementally, exactly so that you don’t absorb all the liquidity and offer down the price of whatever it is you’re getting out of. Anybody with more than about 10 minutes’ experience in the commodity business (any commodity) would know this.
If you announce that you’re going to offload a huge stash of gold, then either there is sufficient liquidity to absorb your sale without a problem (which in that case cannot properly be considered ‘huge’), or there’s not. If it can reasonably be foreseen that there’s not, then you’d avoid trashing the market by spreading the sales out over a period long enough to absorb the volume; and if you make an announcement you do it ex post.
If you were in any doubt, eg if you don’t know what liquidity there is and hence even a small trade could be influential, you’d contact the relevant exchange (if any) and regulator ex ante and tell them what you were doing and why.
None of this appears to have been considered by MacSporran or his coterie. They just announced they were going to crush gold.
As I said before - had a private company announced it was selling a shedload of gold, then done so, driven the price down, and then the price rebounded when the selling stopped, any such would absolutely, categorically find itself under regulatory investigation for suspected market abuse, and would be forced to defend itself at great cost and effort.
Indeed, thanks to Broon’s rules, in the UK the FSA would get a free option on whether to accuse them of being outright criminals or civil offenders. If they don’t think they can prove you’re a criminal, they can interpret the law as meaning you’re a civil offender, and go after you on the basis of a lesser burden of proof.
It’s a fascinating and very Labour concept: something can be deemed criminal after the fact depending on how easy or hard it is to make a case.
It isn’t just Broon whose interventions in commodity markets have been utterly catastrophic. A good case has been made by Verleger in the US that the oil price spike last year was caused by a perfect storm of US government buying of crude oil, Chinese government price control of diesel and EU government strictures on fuel sulphur content. The rise coincided with the onset of these and the trough with the end.
Note the common factor. Needless to say all, three guilty parties have been keen to point the finger at and frame others.
This from The Spectator:
“History shows that Labour benefit from postal voting, notably at the comfortable Glenrothes by-election victory last year, when every indication was that the SNP would overturn the majority. The Scotsman claims that over 6,000 people have registered for postal votes in Glasgow North East, which is 10 percent of eligible voters. (Surely not that many people can be bed ridden or in absentia, even in Glasgow North East?)
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5532908/electoral-fraud.thtml
182, Yes, but we’re the Rabbi was nobbled.
Ted said that one useful thing about tim’s endless posts about Eastern European politics was that it caused him to read up about a subject he’d known very little about; another useful thing is that it’s also helped us to find out about some of the groups that Labour is happy to get into bed with.
185 David Roe;
I agree with you 100 per cent and share your fears about the future of Test cricket. How anyone can prefer the formulaic ODI format to the captivating ebb and flow of a Test match is beyond me.
The ICC have to get some sort of Test world championship (long mooted, but yet to happen) going sharpish to rejuvenate interest in the truest form of the game.
Is there a book on the possibility of an electoral fraud investigation? Or, on the voters’ register going missing?
http://scotlandunspun.blogspot.com/
185 - Sadly for us Test fans, the sub continent fans prefer one day cricket. That’s where the finances of the game are leading us to.
I maintain the last 2hrs of the test match at Cardiff were more compelling than any one day or 20/20 match.
171. Julia Goldsworthy looks OK
198. Cricket = boring!
199. This is interesting..
http://www.libdemvoice.org/glenrothes-byelection-marked-register-set-to-rise-from-the-dead-16756.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6551345/Immigration-has-cost-some-parts-of-Britain-says-PM.html
Jeez and it’s taken you 12 years being in charge of the country to realise this?
Can you smell the desperation?
202, good. It’ll either prove there was fraud or lay the suspicions to rest.
200. I thoroughly enjoyed the recent 20/20 Champions league where the indian mercenary teams were thoroughly routed by “real” teams. Problem for Indian domination of cricket is that the standard of Indian players is pretty average and falling (Tendulkar not getting any younger). So perhaps all is not lost..
188. Very dark clouds currently over Glasgow. Rain about to fall ahead of schedule.
200 And the final morning at Lords wasn’t half bad either … though the series as a whole was not the bets there’s ever been.
206. Ernesto
“We’re doomed, DOOMED…”
197 I’ve done the same, and boy, are there are some real horrors in the Socialist grouping. Google ‘labour allies european parliament’.
Congratulations to TIMBOT for the nudge; I wouldn’t have bothered if you hadn’t done so much crowing on this subject recently.
Cricket grounds passim. Trent Bridge has undergone a lot of redevelopment in the last ten years and is now excellent. Very intimate.
201 - will be interesting to see the chemistry between Julia “the Games” Goldsworthy and Crackers.
Good Afternoon Fertive Photographic Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Sean Fear @ 197 - It seems to me that both Labour and the Tories have jumped, with some alacrity, into the European conjugal furniture with some odd bedfellows and accordingly have caught a dose of political clap.
The Liberals by contrast seem to want to indulge in their usual round of under the duvet continental-masturbation hoping not to be caught as the tissues pile up beside the euro-state-sized bed.
205 - Lets hope so, and test cricket becomes the main focus of cricketers minds.
207 - That morning was fabulous, thought the worst bit of the summer was when I had convinced myself Australia would be able to get any target England set them in the 4th innings at the oval.
Do you think LCCC ought to invest in the same anti-rain technology as Beijing?
210/211 “Very intimate”
Tabbers you old rascal, what have you been up to, no ball tampering I hope?
I note the Lib Dem candidate at Glenrothes was both of Prince Charles’s sons
215 - I’m told a bit of surreptitious rubbing will make it stand proud*
* the seam, that is.
For people interested in the gold tangent, I found the Public Accounts Select Committee stuff quite interesting - especially this bit with David Davies cross-examining:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200001/cmselect/cmpubacc/224/01020505.htm
Have to say I’m a bit puzzled that John R and others seem to think that the choice between saying what you’re going to do and letting the markets discount the price and trying to do it on the sly and risking them freak out and fear the worse when they find out is a blindingly obvious no-brainer…
I nearly backed Turnout less than 38% when I had a look at this market last night. My logic was that shadsy had priced both 38% at 5/6 the pair initially and so 38% was likely to be about right. With the weather forecast being so poor I thought the <38% had probably become value, even at the reduced price of 4/6.
I would guess there is a great deal of apathy about this by election so with poor weather in prospect, I wouldn’t expect a great turnout. But then I checked the turnouts at other recent byelections and was surprised how large some were; especially Glenrothes. But not so the other Glasgow byelection. And Glenrothes was much higher profile than this byelection.
If it wasn’t for the postal vote factor I would be piling onto the <38% option. As it is, I think it’s a no bet for me.
208.
It might be more accurate having an apathy or a disenchantment forecast.
I can’t quite believe that Mirror story at Guido’s is actually on the front page. ‘Leader of Opposition attends Remembrance Service shocker!’
If they want a staged photo, I suggest they dig up the one of Sarah crying as Brown signs the book of condolence at Auchwitz.
221 AD. Are you suggesting that Sarah Brown shed crocodile tears ??
17 - When the former MP for Bristol West, Valerie Davey, was a councillor on the old Avon County Council, her husband regularly stood against her (same ward) for the Greens, although I don’t believe he ever did at national level.
There are a few examples at local level (I recall one in Bath recently - and not just one of them as a paper candidate, I seem to remember both had a reasonable chance). Can anyone provide national examples?
219. StJohn - I concurr. Genuinely puzzled by this one.
212 Jack W - Had a good lunch, I see.
BTW There was a group of scurrilous LibDems on here yesterday casting doubt on the proposition that Winchester would turn Blue. Care to comment?
146 I don’t think that is quite the same as releasing them to the MSM. Who the hell knows or cares about flickr!
219 stjohn - but have you read post 196? That and the, ahem, extraordinary, missing register by-election at Glenrothes, has convinced me that a >38% turnout bet is the one to be on.
You don’t get to eat at La Manoir without being a wily old bird!
225 The Lib Dem vote has proved surprisingly resilient in Winchester.
The ex-Eurostar terminal at Waterloo is being kept unused at a total cost of £13m
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23768439-taxpayers-hit-with-pound-13million-bill-for-empty-eurostar-terminal.do
39 BBC bosses earn more than the PM
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23768510-bbc-publishes-bosses-pay-and-expenses.do
I have done following bets of Glasgow North East. All proceeds to Children in Need.
Paddy Power - £10 on labour at 1/5, £20 freebet on SNP at 5/2
Ladbrokes - £25 on Labour at 2/9, £25 freebet on Smeaton getting more that 2000 votes at 6/1
Is it always this easy to make money at this? BTW - I don’t think Glenrothes has the same demographic base as GNE re your turnout predictions. But best of luck.
Enjoy your meal
213. TSE. Yes, I was pretty much convinced the whole way through that Australia would win the series … until the very last session at the Oval when five wickets went down in an hour or so, and England had suddenly won it. It was just one of the most peculiar series there’s ever been.
223 - I’m suggesting that she has a useful habit of bursting into tears and acting all sad at times and over issues during which her husband’s weird lack of feeling and empathy is most apparent.
So! will they or won’t they?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6905279.ece
Could be interesting.
By the way, is the counting overnight or are they having a shitty delay and doing it tomorrow?
235. Usually in the Daily Mail.
I saw God today. Either that or it was a stonking endorphin high. I went to see a Yunnan Tibetan wilderness that is even more beautiful than the one I was blithering on about yesterday.
In fact, it might be the most beautiful place I have EVER been. Balagezong.
Exactly. No one has ever heard of it. Yet it is sublime beyond description. So I won’t bother describing it, I’ll post a link to someone else’s blog, who seems to have trekked Gezong quite recently, and taken some nice pix.
http://redrocktrek.com/blog/?p=398
And the blog doesn’t even mention that there are ALSO green, mighty, sultry, mist-filled and spectacular 2km deep subtropical gorges at the bottom of those mountains.
Seriously. If you ever get a chance in your life to go to southwest China, GO TO BALAGEZONG!!!
236. Is third not just 2nd loser ?
222 RN. I rarely have anything other than a “good lunch” !!
“scurrilous Lib Dems ..” - Shirley Shum Mishtayke ??
As for dear old Winnie I fear the yellow peril are making something of a fight of the seat - the wrethches. I think the seat has an artificial Lib Dem majority that was boosted from the Malone by-election farago days. I believe it to be one of the few Lib Dem seats vunerable to a Tory landslide UNS prediction.
Surely most women are able to cry at will, at least that’s been my experience. It’s why they win nine times out of 10…….PfP now stands back, awaiting the flak.
The trouble with the Mirror is that they don’t attack Cameron nearly often enough. Today’s story is a disgrace.
Far better if they had attacked the RedFacedLiar on his woeful PMQs performance. As Brown pointed out, he just ‘lost it’.
Quentin Letts has the most accurate account, together with a photo of Cameron sporting a well slapped arse where his face used to be:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1227085/Suddenly-Cameron-colour-semi-ripe-mulberry.html
242 - You’re wrong, they win 10 out 10 times when they cry.
239 Do Thomson’s do a package deal?
233 - I don’t understand the current obsession with benchmarking salaries against the PM’s wage.
Salaries are set by considering the applicants you are likely to get given salaries available elsewhere. In the BBC’s case, that is at fellow broadcasters and (depending on the job) other roles in the private and public sector. You trade off the cost implications of higher salaries with the value you get from attracting better candidates.
What’s the PM’s salary got to do with the price of carrots? Nothing.
I think the to easy availability of postal voting is becoming a danger to democracy.
People are clearly voting long before they have had a chance to listen to the programmes and ideas of the varoius parties and candidates.
I am also convinced that people are more vulnerable to pressure from parties and relatives when they are not voting in the privacy of the polling booth.
239. SeanT - stunning! AT 62 I still do not very challenging geriatric ” Inn Travel type” walking holidays. How fit do you need to be to do Balagezong?
247. To get a postal ballot you should need a medical certificate - end of story.
235 AD. Might it have crossed your small mind that as individuals they act in different ways at emotional times and that wheras Gordon Brown is publically seemingly cold, his wife is not.
Your previous implication that Sarah Brown, now confirmed, deceptively faked her emotions at a holocaust memorial is disgusting and beneath contempt. You should be thoroughly ashamed of yourself for uttering such a worthless and base accusation.
235. I imagine Sarah’s minders must carry a decent supply of onions around with them.
O/T
OMG what a joke
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2009/11/mps-with-too-much-time-on-their-hands-in-email-roundrobin-frenzy.html
The Mail joins the, ‘Poppy Police’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1227165/David-Cameron-attacked-using-Field-Remembrance-photo-opportunity.html
343 - Cameron’s ‘1 in 5 youth unemployment’ made the news, not Brown tractor stats. If Brown won his quotes would have been on the news. Brown was not honest about Obama making a decision over troops in the nexf few days, it will be atleast a week if not more.
if there are really 10% added postal votes signed by helpful labour literate staffers, and total vote is 30%, then are we led to believe that a third of the constituency made the decision the weak before the election to claim they were either away or too sick to vote and the vote for the byelection was allowed based on that.
i can only imagine labour asked, are you claiming a sickie, and when the answer was yes the choice was to vote labour as they could not get to the polling station or get dobbed in. any other suggestions as to how labour convinced so many people to vote the day before an election by post and with their choice preordained to labour?
Rain closing in on Glasgow………….
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
MacGabble - there you go again - mention the word liar and we all think of Brown because in the public’s consciousness Gordon Brown = Liar. See how it works? His relationship to the truth is so thoroughly discredited that there is not a sane person alive you believes him any more. You just keep reminding us.
252. The Mail onboard proves its a No10 spin excercise.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179271/Secret-list-British-prisoners-war-buried-Auschwitz-bunker.html
239 Those are indeed remarkable photographs.
BTW I thought there was a strong resemblance between Qizhu Baiqiu and Harriet Harman.
257 - sweet Buddah! It’s actually worse than I remember.
246 “Salaries are set by considering the applicants you are likely to get given salaries available elsewhere. In the BBC’s case, that is at fellow broadcasters and (depending on the job) other roles in the private and public sector.”
Please do explain more. I have always wondered why a not-very-good newsreader like Carrie Gracie earned 92,000 pounds (hat tip to Lord Foulkes).
So, according to your argument, this salary is set because of salaries of “fellow broadcasters”.
I propose reducing the salary of everyone at the BBC by half.
Then we can pay Carrie Grace 46,00 pounds on the “Sir Norfolk Passmore grounds” that this is now comparable to the salary all her fellow broadcasters are receiving.
an analysis of the glasgow north east glasgow sick would show they NO DOUBT had just enough energy to go to the pub and the off license.
i used to work for the dhss 30 years ago and worked in bodgy health investigations, with wee bits of coloured tape attached to folders advising the results in individuals. problem was when the boss wanted an update the whole system stopped as we had to find the live case in the sustem thereby slowing everything down.
i honestly found more that were bodgy than were not. by a big margin. so i cannot imagine labour losing their core vote nationally by extending this scheme in 2009.
then i moved to the lord chancellors department and saw why people really divorced. some of the claims, on some famous people, would make your eyes water. some REALLY hated each other!
official secrets and all that of course.
Just to note that under current rules anybody can have a postal vote without giving a reason. It is this which has driven up numbers.a.
252 - Third photo down is a little unfortunate, it appears that the red faced one is about to take a crap.
264. Are they not automatically then sent a postal vote form next election ?
252 runnymede. Do Mrs Cameron’s minders borrow her husbands bike and do likewise ??
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2340/2081944716_55b416a65a.jpg
262. Carrie looks OK too. She’s a fluent Chinese speaker, so she must be pretty smart.
Passmore showing a true New labour grasp of business for the second time today. No employer pays what competitors pay - they pay what they need to pay to get the calibre of recruit they need. In broadcasting the BBC has a very high reputation - they are the company every broadcaster wants to work for. Their competitors need to pay higher wages because, overall, they are less attractive companies to work for. The BBC does not need to match these salaries because they offer many other benefits (both tangible and intangible).
262. I think that the idea that the BBC is like a premiership football club, ‘forced’ by market pressures to pay huge salaries is pretty ridiculous (and convenient) myself.
Indeed, it’s amusing to see people who frequently castigate the bosses of top firms for paying themselves exaggerated amounts suddenly getting all defensive, and claiming it’s all about the ‘going rate’, when the spotlight is turned on a public sector organisation doing the same thing.
265
265 better than you talking it tim, Hows the maths going?.one… two three… four..
262 - I wasn’t defending salary levels, just noting that the comparison with the PM’s pay is specious.
In practice - and I speak as somebody who’s worked there in the past but no longer - you would lose a hell of a lot of good people halving salaries as you would at literally any organisation. The pay is okay but not great there and the organisation treats you quite well but not amazingly so. You might be able to squeeze a few percent out and all organisations need to keep salaries under constant review. But really your slash salaries approach is cloud cuckoo land.
mine pint, it looks like glasgow is missing most of the heavy rain, far heavier just to the north of glasgow.
272. Perhaps they could compare performance not salary of the top Beeboids with that of the PM - if anyone is below Gordo they should be instantly fired.
“Mr Osborne, who was out jogging, merely said: “Call my press office.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/11/12/brown-no29-in-power-list-115875-21815334/
Still no rain. Obviously holding off until people finish work ;(
275. Oops.
“Gordon Brown named 29th most powerful person on Earth”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/11/12/brown-no29-in-power-list-115875-21815334/
198 The ‘rational thing’ is not quite as self evidently so as you seem to believe, John R.
My experience from the racetrack indicates that when placing very large sums, you might be better offer placing a bit here, a bit there, if you can. There is always the risk however that the market will take fright. It may therefore be better to approach the layers openly, disclose the full amount you have in mind, and negotiate terms if necessary.
He’s happy, because he knows who you are and where you are coming from, and you are happy because you have got the lot on at somewhere near the asking price.
This is only to say that there are two sides to the argument, which is I think all Lee was trying to point out. He made his case cogently, fairly and without pejorative allusions (’McSporran or his coterie…Broon…the three guilty parties’.)
I understand he is a Tory supporter and dislikes Brown, as I do, so I am all the more impressed that he was able to explain the matter, as he saw it, without rancour or prejudice.
I followed the debate with great interest. If nothing else, it demonstrated to me (again) that things are not always quite as simple and straightforward as they may appear.
Who is right? Dunno. But I do know I am more readily persuaded by argument rather than name-calling.
“David Cameron silent on Gordon Brown Afghanistan attack”
“The Mirror spoke to Mr Cameron outside his home and asked about the storm over Gordon Brown’s letter to Jacqui Janes, the mum of fallen hero Jamie Janes.
He dodged the question, saying only: “I think it’s unbelievably sad when soldiers die in Afghanistan.”
Mr Cameron then made a swift exit on his bike. Mr Osborne, who was out jogging, merely said: “Call my press office.”"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/11/12/tories-silent-on-pm-attack-115875-21815379/
272 Nonsense. One does really wonder what you got that knighthood for, Sir Norfolk.
Runnymede is completely correct @ 270 — there are no “market forces” driving the salaries of not very good newsreaders up to 96,000 pounds.
251 JackW, out of interest, were you so quick to condemn Roger for his comments regarding Mrs Janes earlier this week or is your righteousness selective?
270 - I’d like to note I’m categorically not one of those people and of course there are plenty of people who are hypocrites the other way - castigating the public sector but defending private sector pay.
I don’t castigate the boss of BP for getting whatever he gets - that’s a matter for the shareholders and for a sober judgement by the remuneration committee of the consequences were they to pay the odd few hundred thousand less or more.
The mistake people often make here is not to appreciate there is barely such a thing as a “public sector worker” and a “private sector worker”. People move between sectors during their lifetimes with relative ease as in very many jobs the skill set is about the same. So public sector employers face the same sort of pressures and choices when determining remuneration - they don’t want to lose good employees to private or public sector employers and are at constant risk of doing so.
273. Redcliffe, It is certainly bleak in Ayrshire at the moment so cannot be far off Glasgow, wet , windy and miserable. Lucky election was not yesterday as it was lovely.
278 - you must work for the Mirror. Nobody else would spend an afternoon endlessly linking to it.
198 The ‘rational thing’ is not quite as self evidently so as you seem to believe, John R.
My experience from the racetrack indicates that when placing very large sums, you might be better off placing a bit here, a bit there, if you can. There is always the risk however that the market will take fright. It may therefore be better to approach the layer openly, disclose the full amount you have in mind, and negotiate terms if necessary.
He’s happy, because he knows who you are and where you are coming from, and you are happy because you have got the lot on at somewhere near the asking price.
This is only to say that there are two sides to the argument, which is I think all Lee was trying to point out. He made his case cogently, fairly and without pejorative allusions (’McSporran or his coterie…Broon…the three guilty parties’.)
I understand he is a Tory supporter and dislikes Brown, as I do, so I am all the more impressed that he was able to explain the matter, as he saw it, without rancour or prejudice.
I followed the debate with great interest. If nothing else, it demonstrated to me (again) that things are not always quite as simple and straightforward as they may appear.
Who is right? Dunno. But I do know I am more readily persuaded by argument than derogatory remarks, which seem out of place in a sensible discussion of a serious and complex subject.
277. From Global Statesman of the year to 29th place in 3 months - poor old Gordo
Also if we have the 7th largest economy (now behind Italy) - should Gordo not be 7th or better ?
249. You don’t have to be that fit at all. If you like you can just trek along the many gorges, on raised walkways:
http://si-miao.com/w/editupimg/20087322245516.jpg
http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/4666312.jpg
The bit that moved me close to tears - no kidding - was the stupa in Bala village. That is indeed remote, it was cut off from the entire outside world until 30 years ago (i.e. unknown to civilisation) until last year the only way of reaching it was by two day trek up a 4000meter mountain.
But a few months ago they finished a dirt road, so you can drive up, as I did; it’s hair-raising, but only takes half an hour!
And the views are just mindblowing. And the people there are also amazing, living in this lost world.
This is where I think I saw God:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlucian/4044868304/
A landscape has never brought me to the verge of blubbing before.
283 If the rumours about it’s identity are to be beleived the Gabble creature works for us, the taxpayer. If so, we don’t appear to be receiving much value for the money spent on that garage cum constituency office.
285 - I know its childish to join in but…
“David Cameron named Britain’s most influential man by GQ… and Gordon Brown is only ninth”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1224376/David-Cameron-named-Britains-influential-man-GQ–Gordon-Brown-ninth.html
280 EdP. Out of interest did you bother to read that thread and my comments ??
I also think you’ll find that righteouness should always be selective.
269 - Not really so. The BBC can pay a bit less for some job categories. But not significantly less across the board. The BBC are okay to work for but very few of my colleagues wouldn’t have left for a similar job at Sky, ITV or any other organisation for a few grand extra. Indeed, there are several disadvantages to working for the BBC, such as White City being a dump.
271 - In trying to help out Dave with his red face issue ( you don’t notice it so much against a backdrop of poppies) I discovered that besides the pyschological explanation for his problem.
Psychological disorders that may cause blushing include:
* Blushing disorder (see Flushing) - usually part of social anxiety disorder
* Social anxiety disorder
* Disorders leading to easy embarrassment - see also low self-esteem symptoms.
* Panic attack - may cause flushing or facial redness
* Panic disorder
There may be a simpler explanation.
Constipation … red face
close i agree, but there is a lessening between the main cells happening across (north) glasgow. gut feel is it will not be as bad there.
worse in greenock and lanark for example.
291: I see tim is trying out a new meme….
280 - I agree the BBC overpaid for “talent”, although it’s a small part of payroll. I doubt they are dramatically overpaying for senior executives, but to the extent they are, you won’t find that with a specious comparison to the pay of the PM.
tim, if having a red face is an issue for pollies i imagine nigel griffith has the reddest face of the lot after his gymnastics in the offices of parliament last year.
has he resigned, hell no!
not only unfaithful and captured on tape with someone who was less than wife material, but a trougher to boot.
293 Yes indeed and it will be as over exaggerated as his “Cameron madly name checking Blond” nonsense of two days ago. Tim relies on people not checking up on what he writes. Most of the time its best to ignore it, but every now and again….
277 29th doesn’t sound terribly significant to me. It must put you on a par with, say, the President of Mexico.
Well, I don’t buy that SNP (and I should add the BBC has made contributions to my income too). It is the organisation most sought after by anyone trying to make a name for themselves in broadcasting. Of course, once established, they may well cash in on their success elsewhere but the BBC can easily offer lower remuneration than its competitors and so it should.
289 JackW, sorry I didn’t read the whole thread. That’s why I asked you the question.
Some more shots of Bala village, where the good Lord spoke unto me.
http://www.balagezong.com/en/scenery.asp?id=10
254.Looks like Dacre is doing his bezzie mate Gordon a few favours.I thought his love affair with the Browns had ended,they must have kissed and made up again!
277.Your point is MacGabble?? he is the PM of a Nuclear Armed member of the UN Security Council and G8, He should be in the top ten if anything.Number 29 is nothing to shout from the rooftops about is it?
290 You are wrong, SNP.
It would be possible to find many candidates to read the news very competently for much less than 92,000 pounds.
It is true that Carrie may not be willing to read the news for 46,000 pounds — fine, let her use her considerable talents elsewhere.
I think Carrie is probably very talented and creative — she could easily found and run a company and create both jobs and wealth for the country.
From the Guardian blog, quoting LocalNewsGlasgow:
Willie Bain’s Labour HQ is bustling with party workers and campaigners. There is an expectant and excited yet nervous buzz about the place.
…
But large swathes of the Westminster constituency which has been Labour for 74 years is looking more pink than yellow.
Whether the SNP truly believe they can get enough of the Milton, Possil and Barlornock (where neighbouring MP John Mason has been campaigning) voters to turn up and match the already alleged 9,000 committed Labour votes remain to be seen. Some insiders suspect the SNP has already privately conceded this seat and are only looking to safeguard their presence and showing from the wards they have a strong base.
Didn’t see the Tories but as sure as Maggie Thatcher was loathed here, and across fair city in general, Ruth Davidson will be out and about until the polling places close. The 30-year-old new-age Tory has fought an admirable and clean campaign throughout.
No sign of Tommy and the lads from Solidarity so far. Not a peep out the BNP.
282. Still pushing a pretty unconvincing line, though I accept it’s an imaginative one with there apparently being ‘no such thing’ as a public sector worker.
The reality I think is that the BBC has been able to use the cover of claiming to be in ‘competition’ with other broadcasters as a handy excuse to create a bloated and overpaid staff, in the worst traditions of a public sector organisation that has no real budget constraints.
Even if there were to be an exodus of staff in the wake of pay cuts, so what? It’s not as if the organisation would risk going bust - unlike its ‘competitors’.
296 - Other possible causes.
U-turn would leave Cameron with red face
Reneging on his rejection of an electoral pact with the DUP would be a major embarrassment
Red Tory: How Left and Right Have Broken Britain and How We Can Fix it (Paperback)
by Phillip Blond
Or Lobal Warming
305 - Grow up Tim,
hmmmmm. Lobal warming tim?, the warming up of the area between your ears. a very cool area at present i feel.
292 - Redcliffe62.
Yes - it does look like Glasgow will now miss most of the rain. And according to this site, it will clear by early evening.
http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=exp
(Click “Expected 3 hours”)
At 22 I posted that I thought only about 29% would turn out to vote today in Glasgow.
Having seen the figures now for registered postal votes, I now think it will be nearer 35%, bearing in mind that even the worst of weather and deepest apathy are trumped by that nice young man from the Labour Party helping you to fill in your form and “post”
it for you.
278 - Thanks Peter
I think you got my drift perfectly, thanks for your kind words. And your betting analogy is perfect and hopefully should resonate with other bettors on the site.
I think that a sale was likely to affect the market price (there is never really a single market price, but price is determined by size) but I’m not clear (nor do I think anyone knows) what would be the way to execute such a sale with minimum impact. It seems likely to me that he got advice to do it the way he did as well as other advice but those who advised along the course he took are unlikely to get much media time (or want to).
I’ll leave this for now as I found myself too tempted to repeat things that I’d written in previous posts.
240 - Sean. I had a religious moment in St Catherine’s Monastery last week. It may have been dehydration but I prefer to think it was hanging out around in Moses’ footsteps. Many thanks for the tip.
299 EdP. Contrary to popular belief I don’t spend every waking hour linked to PB hoping to pounce on some intellectually challenged member of team blue - it’s a cheap blood sport and I prefer a stiffer challenge.
With team red a PB endangered species there is the danger of giving them a free pass, although little seems to evade the blue squad butts as they seem to replenish at will armed more with automatic scattergun shotguns rather than a fine pair of purdey’s approach.
That said Roger deservedly and from all sides had his arse peppered with shot. Indeed to such a degree I fear the downed carcass would have been a health hazard through lead poisoning had it have made its way into a certain pie of the finest quality since 1741 !!
shadsy - if you are on - thanks for putting Exeter up on the GE constituency betting. I must point out it is not in the correct position in the alphabetical list (it’s between Dunfermiline and Dundee !)
Anyway I opened an account today and placed my bets - made a change from betfair.
shadsy - if you are on - thanks for putting Exeter up on the GE constituency betting. I must point out it is not in the correct position in the alphabetical list (it’s between Dunfermiline and Dundee !)
Anyway I opened an account today and placed my bets - made a change from betfair.
rain 20 miles to the west and north was heavy, but glasgow will get a few very small showers only.
i am sure anyone with half a brain could see this if they looked at the weather map properly.
O/T - City Traders re-locating to Switzerland because of 50% tax
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23768345-bluecrests-millionaires-are-set-to-flee-50-percent-tax-rate.do
Not good news for the treasury who need to reduce the deficit, this time one of Brown’s dividing lines is going to put a fragile recovery under threat……
316 - Is it actually a dividing line though? Will the Tories reverse it in their first budget?
317. They will wait until it becomes clear that the 50% rate raises little or no revenue, I suspect.
312 JackW, Purdeys are overrated. The Italians make much better guns.
316. There must be a decent chance the 50% taxrate will lose the Treasury more than it gains. What a stupid bit of politicking it was.
I think the problem is the psychological barrier that is 50%. As Michael Caine said, why should anyone feel obliged to give the government half, or more, of what they earn? Especially when there are very nice places you can live, where they take a lot less.
It’s a spiteful, pointless and idiotic tax hike and I trust the Tories will drop it asaFp.
310 You are welcome, Lee.
It has been interesting and instructive, especially for those whose minds were not already made up. Some of the others who have been interested clearly missed your earlier posts and made points you had already dealt with. Pity, but you can’t go on forever.
Maybe you should do a piece for PB2?
315. Redcliffe, My comments were based on sticking my head out of the window, its unpleasant in Ayrshire and unlikely to be much nicer in Glasgow.
318 - So, no?
318. Yes - easy for GO to scrap if in year 1 50% COSTS the taxpayer money.
TGOHF, thanks.
We’ve had to retreat on the turnout market somewhat. Now 4/7 Under, 5/4 Over 38%.
Also seen a bit of money for Tommy Sheridan to finish 3rd, he’s now 16 from 25.
Otherwise, it’s mostly people trying to make a quick percentage by backing labour at 1/6.
319 EdP. Italian guns only fire in retreat mode !!
Actually, there’s been little rain in Glasgow so far, mostly a fine, sunny but cold day. It’s now quite grey and there’s a bitter wind.
323. Probably not, no. But so what?
180 glw
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for Sun newspaper owner Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street has said.”
Reminds me of the two years of three leaders in Moscow before Gorbachev took over. The Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs is reported to have enquired of his Kremlim counterpart how to pronounce the name of “Konstantin Ustinovich Chernenko” the new Soviet Leader appointed when Andropov popped off.
The reply sent was : “With the deepest respect”.
317. When will the Tories first budget be Neil?
326 JackW, maybe you’ve been holding them the wrong way? The wooden bit goes up to the cheek, not the metal tube. No wonder you’ve never hit anything other than your ear!
304 - As somebody who has worked in both sectors, I can assure you there are no real impediments moving one to the other. I have limited sympathy for workers in one “sector” whinging about how well those in the other are treated. There are self-help solutions!
On budget constraints, it’s definitely right that the BBC are insulated by having a fairly predictable fixed income. That’s great in the present climate, although rather hampering in happier times (they are heavily constrained on borrowing and business activities for example - there is an ebb and flow about who is considered the poor cousin in the industry; right now it’s ITV but believe me it hasn’t always been so and will change back).
My stake on Glasgow NE:
CAD $2,128.79 on Labour @ 1.37 for a potential profit of $792.48
First time ever I’m bettin’ on Labour!
333. May the posties be with you
321 PtP. Lee - “Maybe you should do a piece for PB2?”
Apropo - I’ve been prevailed upon to undertake the odd thread article. Although I’m a tad concerned that my first offering on “Latvian SS Hair Tonic Applications and Postal Voting in Brent Central” may have both a limited market and shelf life !!
335 - The market may be limited but Tim will keep that thread going forever
New Paddy Power market:
NEXT BROWN BLUNDER
Applies to the next blunder that Gordon Brown makes,
Must be reported on Sky News,
PP decision is final in settlement of this market.
Swear during Prime Minister’s Questions 2/1
Trip when walking out of Number 10 9/4
Forget the Barack Obama’s name 3/1
Admit that he hopes England does not win the World Cup 4/1
Forget to bow to the Queen 8/1
Make a pass at Carla Bruni 50/1
Appoint Tony Blair as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer 100/1
One for Gabble to advise us on, I think.
331 EdP. Another comment like that old chap and the wooden end may end up your ….
337 - Re-stock Britain’s gold reserves 500/1
3335 An odd thread indeed, Jack W. Very odd.
337. 9/4 the value !
338 JackW, touched a nerve? Quit Grousing
317 - As others have said when it brings in less revenue it will be scrapped. My Uncle was going to return to the UK next year but has decided to extend for another year abroad, the main reason this tax.
“With team red a PB endangered species ”
Are we on the same site ? The most regular and prolific posters on here are Gabble, Coldstone, Jonathan, tim, URW, Southam Observer and Roger (if he doesn’t die of shame).
333…i trust that we shall both be collecting our winnings tomorrow.
337. ‘Reveal embarassing facts about his past’ appears to be missing from that list…
340 PtP. But the betting implications are interesting :
Sarah Teather Gains Brent Central - Has SS Ancestors 7/1
Sarah Teather Gains Brent Central - With New Hairpiece 10/1
Sarah Teather Gains Brent Central - Postal Votes Countersigned H. Himmler 25/1
Sarah Teather Loses Brent Central - Endorses Auchentennach Hair Tonic 2/1 fav.
337
Sign a Claim of Right for England 10,000,000,000/1
I predicted a turnout of 39% a few weeks ago. Still think that could be right.
Obviously a loss for Labour would be devastating. Even winning after a recount would be underwhelming.
342 EdP. Stop stalking me !!
O/T but I’ve started reading “The Men Who Stare at Goats”.
It turns out that repeatedly playing the music from “Barney the Dinosaur” to inmates of Guantanmo Bay is an effective torture technique.
337. Surely the pertinent question there is, if Gordon Brown did make a pass at Carla Bruni, how would anyone tell? I don’t think many former models get all hot and bothered over a dour Scot mumbling about SureStart and Alky Aida.
I mean, I’m guessing she doesn’t like football or the X Factor, so small talk is out.
351. I read an interview with Jon Ronson a few years ago in which he suggested that they use ridiculous music like that specifically for PR reasons- so that when it leaks out people are more inclined to make a joke of it, than focus on the fact that it;s still torture.
O/T It does not matter what Labour do, the immigrant voter will vote them back into power. When the UK population hits 70 million, Labour we regain power indefinitely. They don’t need the WWC voter now.
Mass immigration = Labour gains
PS Labour have secretly been trying to extend the voting rights of EU nationals from municipal and euro elections to national elections, but the media has kept it silent.
347
344 fr. Only four brace there !! I’d finish them off rather quickly, whereas the blue team seem to have been fully restocked via the breeding pens.
344 I thought URW was a reluctant Tory voter this time around?
337.I would have thought that making a complete tit of himself on you tube again would warrant some decent odds,bearing in mind this latest fightback (number 2045) and the fact its getting some traction in the mind of a few Labour voters and MP’s(NP,Mac Gabble etc) may tempt him back on again????
355. Can you blame the blue team for being spectacularly fertile when we can count TSE amongst our number?
351 Mr Fear - I read it last year and was very disappointed after a strong start.
LORD SLIMY SL4G WINS SOMETHING
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/spectator_awards_2009_key_winners.html
353. Exactly. In the book he recounts how US news organisations tended to focus on the silly music played, laughing about it, not that the US military were using noise, light, stress positions and sleep deprivation to torture people they held. As we know now that went even further than that.
337: I don’t know about Gordon, but a market in “the next Paddy Power blunder” would have to be settled instantly: “the Barack Obama” indeed. Presumaably they’re thinking of the Scottish custom, as in “The Stuart Dickson of that ilk”?
There should be some interim turnout figures for Glasgow by now - no reports?
OT Ahh…
Their masked faces give a clue as to their devious ambitions - but this is no stick-up.
This group of critters regularly queue up for the No.18 bus in San Francisco to get a bite to eat.
The bus stop raccoons have become regular visitors, thanks to the driver’s habit of dispensing treats as he stops off outside the city’s Legion of Honour museum.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1227126/Form-orderly-queue-Band-raccoons-line-bus.html#ixzz0Wf5OmUN5
360 - Ken Clarke is newcomer of the year. LOL
360: Ken Clarke wins Newcomer of the Year? This is ze subtle British sense of humour which we Europeans struggle with, yes?
356 Plato. Correct ! I will always come across as a Socialist on pb.com because I just can’t abide the Tory herd. So the poster ‘fr’ wasn’t totally wrong.
Watch Nancy Pelosi saying it’s “fair” that people should have to go to jail, as called for under the recently passed House healthcare bill, if they don’t want to buy a government-approved health insurance plan:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2009/11/11/pelosi_on_jail_time_for_no_health_care_the_legislation_is_very_fair_in_this_respect.html
No wonder the Republican Party, so recently relegated to the dustbin of history, is now leading the Dems in Gallup’s congressional election polling.
NPMP - from Nick Paul’s Guardian blog:
3.43pm: Severin has just rung in from a polling station in Cumbernauld. He said drizzle settled in over the constituency half an hour ago, and dusk is now falling. The turnout is expected to be low if the rain continues.
The polling station has only seen 200 voters so far today, but it is in a neighbourhood where a high proportion will have been at work today, and, to put that figure in context, at this year’s EU elections only 34 voters visited the station all day.
I have just popped out of the office, and the Evening Standard placard reads “Brown’s Ashes Shock for Sky TV.”
I didn’t realise he had already been cremated.
OT Babooshka strikes back
“A suspicious wife caught her pensioner husband chatting up girls for internet sex by posing online as a teenager, a court has heard.
Cheryl Roberts, 61, suspected her husband David was logging on to chatrooms to lure schoolchildren into sex.
So the mother-of-two used another computer in their home in Bridgend, South Wales, to pretend she was a 14-year-old - and snared her husband in the act.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1227154/Wife-snares-paedophile-husband-posing-online-schoolgirl-using-room-door.html#ixzz0Wf7Z9OWJ
362 Nick P - “the Barack Obama” indeed.
It’s because they’re Irish. You’re showing cultural insensitivity and will have to go on one of Harriet Harman’s courses.
368. Sorry - Paul Owen’s Guardian blog and here is the latest posting:
4.06pm: Severin has called in again, this time from St Dennis primary school in Dennistoun, one of the most prosperous parts of the constituency, where Kerr lived until he was two.
Turnout there is steady but undramatic, he said, with 560 votes cast by 4pm.
A Labour activist said most voters looked “very cold. They just looked cold.”
Severin said it was cold, wet and dark, and anyone who was voting now “really wanted to vote”.
Alison Thewliss, an SNP councillor, told him that voters carrying Labour promotional material gave her “a nod and a wink”, which she took as a sign that some were voting for the nationalists.
She said Kerr had been well-received lately. “He had a very good reception on Duke Street. He’s very personable and very good on the doorstep and people appreciate that.”
At this polling station was the first Green party official Severin had seen today, as well as Tory and SNP activists.
Are Wayne’s predictions for the Glasgow NE by election in yet?
374. A resignation in the offing I think.
Interesting follow-up on the Nutt-Sack sage:
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/7701/
Probably been asked a dozen times already, but will we get a result tonight, or are they counting tomorrow?
374.375
shut it !
Quote from the above (376)
“This is why, in the wake of the Nutt affair, both the temperance movement and the pro-dope lobby have had a new lease of life and have won implicit backing from respectable scientists, politicians and the serious media – because the authoritarian message of both campaign groups, and of the Nutt bandwagon itself, is the same: Booze Is Bad. These people instinctively hate alcohol and love dope because alcohol tends to be consumed in a social group and it makes us cocky, happy, arrogant, sexually charged, up for all sorts of larks, including, it is true, the odd row or punch-up; cannabis, by contrast, tends to be smoked alone (it’s certainly an alienating experience), is generally consumed at home, and leads to little more than the consumption of Wotsits and rubbish films from the 1960s. They hate the way alcohol helps to loosen us up and reveal our inner swagger; they love the way dope makes us fall asleep. They hate the fact that working men and women enjoy booze; they love the fact that cannabis is a largely middle-class pursuit. Anyone interested in real freedom today should stand up to The Man, that joint-smoking, anti-working class, drink-demonising, like, total loser of modern debate.”
377. The Guardian blog suggested a result at 2am.
377 AndrewG - According to the Guardian blog, the result is expected at around 2am.
370.
Its a war that Labour cannot win… How ridiculous they just look guilty and vindictive, it will backfire on them when the Sun go through their filing cabinets, digging up some dirt ! Bye Bye Mandy perhaps
The Guardian blog suggested a result at 2am.
This morning?
379. A lot of truth in that I think.
Thanks chaps.
I have a serious scepticism for Spiked since it rose from the ashes of Living Marxism.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiked_(magazine)
I employed a PR company that organised an ‘event’ of theirs for me - it was full of speakers who were dressed entirely in black [like sad middle-aged marketing idiots] and spouted a la Ben Elton.
I see that Humphrys is the rather boring choice of last minute stand-in for the ‘bullocksed’ (new word?) Dimbleby on QT tonight.
A missed opportunity. Could they not have tried Paxman, or better still, Clarkson?
Or if they wanted to chase ratings, how about Nick Griffin? He did remarkable business for the numbers recently…
370 What makes me laugh is that when Labour were in bed with Murdoch they had no qualms whatsoever about Sky buying the rights to all the domestic International Cricket.
Total hypocriscy of the highest order.
Does Blunkett still write his piss poor piece in the Sun by the way??
386 - Doesn’t Boris have a thing with the RCP
I don’t think its worth staying up for the Glasgow result, sadly.
Tom Harris MP has no problem with postal voting numbers…
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2009/11/12/going-postal/
THE TIN FOIL hat brigade are out in force again, this time predicting that Labour will win Glasgow North East, but only because of a surge in postal voting.
The Orange Party blog describes the number of people registered to vote by post today as “shocking”, apparently because the number has doubled since the general election….
360 Project Jedi might work for Gordon Brown, though, if he, and all his ministers focused negative thoughts on David Cameron at Cabinet meetings.
BALAGEZONG, hey?
Noted!
So does Glasgow North East still love labour…..gimme gimme! And need to be kept down and blame others for the frustrations in my life…..Labour the Saviours….blame everyone for your failures…….hungry hungry glaswegians, we are the hungry hungry glaswegians.
See the world from new labours eyes. They buried the past and robbed us blind and leave nothing behind! Just stare….re-live the nightmare!
337 Trip when walking out of Number 10 9/4
Please God!
369.NPMP - from Nick Paul’s Guardian blog:
3.43pm: Severin has just rung in from a polling station in Cumbernauld. He said drizzle settled in over the constituency half an hour ago, and dusk is now falling. The turnout is expected to be low if the rain continues.
Erm…. Cumbernauld is not in the constituency and……the rain has finally arrived to go with the cold wind.
My prediction is that there will be no tea-time rush to vote and that the turn-out will be less than 38%
394 - it would be awesome. But it would also be like when he blamed the Tories for not ‘diversifying into gold’; they didn’t fix the broken step, either.
394 PfP. LSD is a Class B drug these days.
PtP As a matter of interest,do you have any bets on Glasgow NE?
New thread - not showing as new post in my browser but as link at the top of this one.
398 URW - same question?
400.No bets PfP. I can only bet with PP and Bluesq.All the others have long since sacked me or restrict me to pence.
Once I had access to a Ladbrokes account with 250k ensconced (not mine) and shyly asked for an £80 footie bet, to be told I could have £4.40p at 9-4.
I am surprised so many pb’ers can still get on.
368, S&S - Greetings from one Evergreen State to another . . . if you count the Pine Barrens which naturally I’m eager to do.
Congratulations on your great victory: Big Boy stomps Lead Foot!
Perhaps soon-to-be ex-Gov. Corzine should have spent less time critiquing Gov-elect Chris Christie’s avoirdupois (sp?) and more time attacking his political philosophy and other hostages to fortune.
That’s what the new Democratic congressman from NY CD23 - the area’s first US House Dem since the Grant Administration! - did in his race, albeit aided by Gov. Palin, etc, etc.
Was also winning strategy of the new King County Executive-elect Dow Constantine, and avowed Democrat and incumbent county councilman whose baggage was not as extensive as Jon Corzine’s BUT who did have some AND more to the point was well positioned to become scapegoat for the sins of the Democrats, who are running everything - with our traditional mixed record! - from city hall to the courthouse to the statehouse to Congress and the White House.
BUT that did NOT happen in King Co. Independents and equally disenchanted Democrats did NOT rise up to smite the smug socialistic sons of guns. Instead, they rose up to elect the self-declared liberal Democrat against the stealth Republican and former TV news anchor Susan Hutchinson by a 59%-41% landslide.
A major factor was R71, the vote to approve or reject new state domestic partnership law. Which brought out a LOT of gay and pro-gay voters in Seattle, an odd-year election turnout surge that was NOT met by a similar boost in evangelical and other socially conservative voters.
Now folks of that persuasion wbo are perfect or frequent voters did in fact cast ballots, and they voted against R71, which was indeed rejected in a few rural/exurban legislative districts within King Co.
My point is that they did NOT bring very many family, friends, neighbors who are less frequent in their personal voting history. Whereas the opposite was the case in Seattle and other areas dominated by liberal/progressive Democrats.
This differential turnout was just one key factor behind the victory of Dow Constantine in King Co, and R71 statewide (also the rejection of anti-tax Initiative 1033).
The other was fact that “Middle Washington” that is moderate Democrats, Republicans and above all Independents swung decisively behind Constantine, Approve R71 and No against I-1033.
So electorally the Evergreen State went the opposite direction of the Garden State and the Old Dominion.
EXCEPT allow me to point out that:
>>> in New Jersey, the incumbent didn’t have baggage, he was dragging around steamer trunks. My question is, given the not-at-all-close result, why in the world did Axelrod allow Obama to expend his political capital trying to unflog a lame duck? Perhaps because calculation was that it was better to fight and lose, than not to fight at all, for a Gov who was profuse in his Obamamamaism. Also note that the new Gov is NOT a rightwingowacko, as S&S can attest (if not emulate!)
>>> In Virginia, Creigh Deeds (not the best moniker I ever heard for a politico, that’s for sure) made fatal mistake of distancing himself from Obama. Then campaigned with all charisma of say Warren Christopher in the grips of a powerful, clihical sedative. No wonder the President skipped this one. Clincher was fact that AG and Gov-elect McDonnell is a traditional right-of-center old school VA GOPer who campaigned as a moderate.
>>> Of course NJ & VA were great GOP victories, and honest Democrats (or at least those not totally devoted treason, unreason, larceny, debauchery and cruel mockery of all that is holy) admit this.
>>> BUT NY CD23, King Co and WA State demonstrate that the Teaparty of 2009 - or Revolting Rush and Revenge of the Teabaggers if you prefer - is NOT the only current out their in conteporary US politics.
400 PfP
I had £40 on the SNP at 6/4 ages ago. I laid a bit off and expect to lose a net £30.
405 - even I wouldn’t bet on the SNP to win GNE.
I am ok, have £40 on SNP at 7/2 and £60 on Labour at 11/8 so win either way.
7/2 and 11/8, those odds could be much improved if the EU enforced an open gambling market and allowed proper competition between bookmakers and betting exchanges across the continent. As it is, punters face worse value on their betting, and are deprived of their right to choose which supplier to go through in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Portugal and Greece. If you think gamblers deserve the same basic consumer rights as everyone else, sign the petition to open the EU gambling market at http://www.right2bet.net.