Against The Grain - A Labour Recovery?
November 14th, 2009
A Guest slot by Jack W
(PBers in their quiet, contemplative moments will no doubt worry how a PB Titan spends his reflective moments after having polished his betting halo, plotting the next Jacobite Rising and single handedly erasing the balance of payments deficit by stint of fine pie exports alone. You need concern yourself no more.
For having been prevailed upon to lift the literary status of PB to Nobel literary standards it is clear that my every spare waking moment must be devoted to a series of occasional articles entitled “Against The Grain” - a political nail-bed and betting opportunities therin. For the first of these articles I’ve cast an eye on the putative chances of a short term Labour recovery.)
One of the clearest political moods of the past year has been the almost natural assumption that David Cameron will be the next tenant of 10 Downing Street assisted by a comfortable if not handsome majority in the Commons, perhaps even of landslide proprtions. This mood pervades the media, most political commentators and even, though to a lesser degree, the general public. It’s oft said we are in for a reprise of the 97 election but with the Conservatives in the driving seat. However are there any straws in the wind indicating that Labour might recover or are they just straw men for the falling.
Those looking for signs of an opening for a new Labour gambit can point to a slight improvement in some polls that indicate a post conference net improvement of a few points to Labour. However even this improvement looks fragile and the Conservative poll lead remains impressive if perhaps in the odd poll nudging toward hung parliament territory. Presently the overall story from the polls remains largely gloom laiden. Government supporters hoping for a historic closing of the polls are watching the sand of electoral time running out with little encouragement to be seen.
Is it possible that some initial Labour recovery is running under the main radar of the polls? Perhaps. The excellent result for Labour in the Glasgow NE by-election might be written off as a purely Scottish affair but post the Euro elections there have also been some decent results for Labour in some local by-elections. Are we seeing here a repeat in Labour terms of “Shy Conservative Voter Syndrome from years gone by?
It’s also noticable that “Dead Lettergate” had engendered a deal of sympathy for the Prime Minister some of it from unexpected quarters. Might this be another early sign that some in the media and more importantly the voters will cast a new eye over the Prime Minister.
Certainly there are some who believe that Conservative support is a mile wide and a inch deep and opportunites will arise to chip away at that support as the general election nears and voters cast a more discerning eye on the contenders. Of course the electorate may remain of their present view and contnue to reject Gordon Brown and Labour but at least an opening is there. Will Gordon squander the opportunity again?
The economy may also run slightly more in the governments favour than had been thought. Wednesdays unemployment figures were somewhat better than expected within the context of severe economic difficulties. If the voters are prepared to listen to Labour’s message that the Conservatives have misjudged the economic climate and the strategies required to bring about a sustained recovery, then they may decide to remain with nanny in troubled times as they did with John Major in 1992 - Cue Daily Mirror front page - If Cameron Wins Tomorrow Will The Last Person Leaving The Nation Please Turn The Lights Off
In the context of these musings are there any certainties and more importantly betting opportunities. For this Titan the prospect of Gordon leaving office before the general election of his own volition or indeed being forced out are now close to nil. Relatedly the election now looks set for May or June. The spread markets offer some opportunites if you believe Labour’s position is understated. My view is that a long term buy position looks more rewarding if you consider Labour has hit its floor. I do.
In conclusion I consider Labours position to be perilous but not quite yet completely lost. The door is slightly ajar but with the voters inclined to but not yet minded to shut it fully in Gordon’s face.
Jack W is the reigning PB Tipster Of The Year and claims to be 107 years old.
MessageSpace Advertising
These are uncertain times, uncertain times will bring an uncertain result.
More JARHEAD needed.
It’s the economy: watch the retail figures imo.
FPT
The PBR which is now promised in early December, but which leaves little time for Parliamentary scrutiny before the Christmas break, could be a key factor in a Labour revival or not.
Firstly will Darling be allowed by GB to tell the truth about the real state of UK’s present and future financial position?
Secondly, will he be allowed to put forward his plans to remedy that financial state - real public sector cuts and all! If his policy is just more QE and long term and ill-defined efficiency savings then the markets could take fright and the UK AAA status could be threatened.
At present, the market is being held up by the prospect of a change in government - just a real threat to that prospect could realise a strong bear market.
Whilst the GDP for this quarter may level out, the impact of redundancies already announced will been seen in QI 2010, along with more public sector strikes.
In my area the council is increasing council tax by 2.5%, receiving an increased gov. grant of 2.1% and yet talking of cutting services whilst giving a 1% pay increase to staff. Apparently its not in their culture to cut costs and not to increase pay to staff. I expect many people to start refusing to pay their council tax next April - watch out for the court cases.
Gordon Brown and Co, 5 more years is bound to swing it.
Excellent article Jack: nicely balanced. Labour buy looks very good to me. Labour polling below 30% on the real day looks extremely unlikely to me, so the Tory figure needs to be 40%+. Even Con 40%, Lab 30% would only give Cameron a slender mjority.
We’re nowhere near Michael Foot post-Falklands territory here when Labour polled just shy of 28%. The detested Tories of 1997 still managed 31%, that of course partly the ‘Governing party status quo’ effect. My estimate is that on current performance Labour will poll between 31-36%; the Tories perhaps 5-6% more. Hung parliament.
4. retail sales
Has anyone else noticed how much advertising is on the lines of ‘buy now before the VAT increases’?
I’ve always expected retail sales to increase in December as people brought forward purchases for the VAT reason.
I am curious though why shops are trying to encourage it though. The approach to Christmas is their busiest time of year anyway yet they are trying to increase spending now even though this will mean a dead period in January and February.
Is it possible that things aren’t going well for the shops at the moment?
I only caught parts of JARHEAD. Is there any opportunity for an Omnibus edition to be made available?
The polls have been remarkably stable for months. There is nothing obvious coming up to change them in Labour’s favour. Indeed, the next major economic news that the public will absorb is tax rises and spending cuts. Labour might recover but it seems pretty unlikely to me.
I agree that Gordon Brown is now in for the election. The next Labour leader market is mouthwatering.
WRT the economy, I think that Gordon Brown’s past hubris, and present denials have destroyed Labour’s reputation.
Boasting about “no more boom and bust”, claiming that we are “best placed” of all economies to withstand recession, and repeated denials that he would have to cut public spending have shattered Brown’s (and Labour’s) credibility on this issue.
FPT. repeated.
1. Good Afternoon lovers of a weekend argument everywhere.
What Thrasher does not do is make any attempt to work on the impact of the rise of other parties and what that does to conventional seat calculations. This is the key matter which should be being examined and which I’ll be dealing with in the coming days.
by Mike Smithson November 14th, 2009 at 3:35 am
I have just been perusing the BNP site this morning. Their Scottish division is really cock-a-hoop over the Glascow by-election results and claim that this is the start of an advance into other Scottish areas.
The party are also holding their annual conference today (somewhwere in the wilds of Wigan) and will discuss changes to their constitution so that skins of a darker shade may join the bretheren.
And if you hold your nose and think that so called ethinics wont join them, then you are in for a big surprise.
The fact is as Mike states in his paragraph (above), and I fully concure, the smaller parties like The BNP, UKIP and the Greens throw all fine polling calculations into the pot this time round.
I feel that we are entering new territory with the BNP making inroads in the Labour hartlands and beyond, UKIP doing ditto to the Tory towns and shires and the Greens affecting the L/Dems.
Oh, I have no doubt that the Tories will have a majority in the next parliament, but they will probably be accompanied by the most entertaing body of MP’s in recennt British history.
by weathercock November 14th, 2009 at 11:52 am
7. In polling terms, we are actually very close to Michael Foot, post-Falklands territory.
By the way, I also think we may very very well be in for an electoral rumpus with the Conservatives winning the popular share, but Labour winning more seats. Whence then the Constitution…?
I don’t have anything much to add to this debate so I won’t. However a really terrific piece from David Herdson and follow up thread. Jack’s piece is entertaining and of course we have events dear boy, events.
However my basic hunch is this is just a bored and declining print media trying to inject a little uncertainty into the situation. I’m not convinced this close to an election and with the Afghan and economic situtaion so grim that it will quite extend to a Brown Bounce 3 but… Perhaps if the next set of polls taken in the after glow of Glasgow East show an up tic in Labour support so editors will try and get a bandwagon going.
Boredom may well be Browns last throw of the Dice.
13. Sean, if you think the zeitgeist now bears ANY relation to the pro-Thatcher Falklands victory on the one hand and the utter vitriolic vilification of Michael Foot on the other then you’re either too young to remember, or you have a highly filtrated memory bank.
7 - “Labour polling below 30% on the real day looks extremely unlikely to me”
Erm, why? They’ve had only 3 (of 24) polls above that level since the start of October, and previous analysis on pb.com has shown that the supposed swing back to the government during the course of a Parliament is actually more of a swing to the Conservatives.
Plus there’s the Brown Epiphany / Cameron halo effect to consider.
Can I have 5/1 Labour poll under 30%, please, if it’s “very unlikely”?
FPT
294 ‘It’s amazing, you a totally dedicated Tory, should expect even handedness from everyone else. ‘
coldstone, whilst I’m happy to fall within the 75% of Anti-Labour posters on this site, please don’t accuse me of being a dedicated Tory. Feel free to post an example where I have actively promoted any Conservative cause or policy. Happy hunting.
7. John
“We’re nowhere near Michael Foot post-Falklands territory here when Labour polled just shy of 28%.”
Actually Labour are polling worse than in 1983 and in local elections are doing much worse than they did in 1983.
They are also doing worse where it matters. Piling up votes in the inner cities doesn’t do them any good.
I think the media is bored and want a story - just as they did before/beginning of Tory conference supposed spat about Europe.
This strikes me as more Gordon hates Tony split stuff when nothing else is about.
Boring, boring, boring.
Gordon fluffed his chance to be PM again and again - he’s brought Labour to unimaginable polling lows and is pitied, hated and ridiculed in equal measure.
Unless we get an ‘event’ then I don’t think we’re going to see anything other than a Tory majority of c50-70.
16 Labour were certainly more popular post-Falklands, than they are now. Is that what you mean?
If the Poll reaches 55% at the next general election I will be very surprised, and pleased.
Afternoon all, it would appear “JARHEAD” is paying dividends for the Jacobean centenarian, entrusted with a long over-due thread of his own no less. Great caption pix btw.
The boy done good.
14. John
For Labour to be the largest party at the next election they would have to win constituencies such as Leics NW, Brigg, Ribble South, Hendon, High Peak, Blackpool N, Bristol NW, Bedford, Yarmouth, Lincoln, Rossendale, Wirral S, Gloucester, Pudsey, Keighley, Dover.
The sorts of constituencies where the Conservatives have been leading by around 20% and/or Labour has fallen into third place in local elections.
A hung parliament is possible but I think the Conservatives look pretty certain to win 300 seats at least.
O/T Major diplomatic incident between Ireland & France over the football tonight: http://tinyurl.com/yb3grqx
How would the new PLP look if Labour won the GE? Quite a lot of their existing MPs aren’t standing again, so there’s bound to be quite a lot of fresh blood in the ranks.
What would Mr Brown’s new Cabinet look like?
I absolutely agree that uncertain times will lead to uncertain outcomes, Coldstone. But there is, IMO but is it natural for bettors, a tendency to over analysis on this site. Every poll I have seen since I’ve been lurking here (June 09) has been within the MOE of previous polls. So I ask the statisticians on this site, has there been a statistically relevant trend at all since, say, July or August? If so, what was the movement, to whom, and is it continuing or is it over?
8 another richard. Retails sales are probably a zero sum game, so there is a logic to getting the biggest share of it now, before it goes to someone else, regardless of the stage of the retail cycle we’re at. That said, I think you may be onto something. I was in a shopping mall here (admittely in the US, not UK) It is as you say, the run up to Christmas, Hannukah, and Kwanza (not PC not to mention it, unbelievably) and yet there are plenty of empty store fronts.
25 Aaron - BRILLIANT SPOOF
Two very interesting, contrasting threads today. Well done PB!
Personally I’m struggling to see why Brown would get Labour into the 30%+ polling area. All the polls we’ve been seeing suggest 25-30% is much more likey, with an average 27% probably there or there abouts. Analysis of the past three election show that by this point before the election ICM had just about got the final result nailed. A result of Con 41% Lab 27% Lib-Dem 20% is where we’re headed assuming something unexpected doesn’t occur.
‘my basic hunch is this is just a bored and declining print media trying to inject a little uncertainty into the situation’
Quite right YS. Rather dull article by Jack W in my view.
Maybe its because we politicos are all getting a bit bored with the continual Labour weakness and like the media are actually wanting a Labour recovery to make the betting markets more interesting.
For what its worth i believe the Labour seat level can easily rise to the 225 area where in my opinion it will stall.
Rod Crosby will start to crow even more over a hung parliament and some of us on here might even start to believe him.
Roll on 2010.
TimT
I don’t think there’s a logic to making your already busiest period even busier and your already quietest period even quieter.
It would create all sorts of problems on cash flow, staffing, stock movement.
Everyone knows people will be bringing forward purchases because of the VAT change but to be trying to encourage does suggest that some retailers are desperate for sales.
Could we see a round of retail closures in the new year?
17 Aaron - Instead of giving you 5/1 against Labour achieving <30% of the vote, John and other Labour optimists should be grabbing great chunks of that 3.5/1 with Betfair, against there being a hung Parliament. The fact that these odds have barely moved since Glasgow NE speaks volumes.
Good analysis, great picture.
another richard at 8: Shops always try to get you to buy now rather than put it off for three months - you might change your mind, or buy from a rival. But I agree that sales will spike in December evwen more than usual and there will be a January dip in big-ticket items especially, unless the shops see it coming - suspect some will widen their profit margins in December and then announce “astonishing” discounts in January.
I’ve been surprised at the number of shops doing Sales in the run up to this Christmas. If the retial sector was really recovering, would stores feel the need to be doing pre Xmas Sales? It looks very similar to what we saw last Christmas when GDP was going off the cliff. Obviously things aren’t as bad as this time last year, but is the high street actually recovering? I’ve got my doubts.
33 - Maybe John should take the 13/8 Paddy Power are offering on 30% or more, rather than laying me 5/1 the other side
In fact, given his post at 7, he should be phoning up and asking for a five-figure sum on what must be, for him, the bet of the millennium.
As you say, betting markets tend to be a better guide than rose-tinted speculation.
Stephen Byers, Labour MP for North Tyneside has announced he will be standing down at the next GE.
This brings the total number of Labour MPs standing down to 74.
Poll Alert:
ComRes/Indy on the way tonight;
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/
So thats two polls to coming up to test the Brown Fightback narrative!
32 another richard
If retailers were to be in a position to marshall their sales, they’d want to organize them evenly throughout the year, weekdays and opening hours to minimize working capital requirements, staffing levels, queuing times and inventory carry costs. However, they are not in a position to do so, they have to take sales when the buyer wants to buy. Furthermore, they are also competing with other retailers selling the same things.
My point is that, if consumers only have £100 to spend, and one of my competitors starts going after that money now, rather than trying to even out sales for after the holiday rush, then I will lose that purchase to my competitor. My only option to maximize my revenues is to go after that customer now too. I’d much rather have sales of £60 in December and £0 in January, than £20 in December and £20 (or more likely £0) in January.
On your last point, retail closures post holidays, absolutely, and lots of them. More good, and highly visible, news for Labour. Don’t rule out double dip recession at all, and then all these fantasies of a hung parliament are gone for good.
38, ComRes and one other (Populus) have been divergent from ICM/YouGov/PB I think with narrower Tory leads. Given it’s ComRes, I’d not be surprised if it showed a Tory lead of around 8 points.
Can I explain why the Glasgow by-election result should be re-interpreted.
If indeed Labour is polling nationally at 25-30% and if the Tories are polling nationally at 38-41% (and this seems fairly consistent), then if Labour are still stacking up huge numbers in their own absolutely core heartlands and in the Tories are hardly registering, then it implies that in the battlegrounds of middle Britain, the Tories are doing even better and labour even worse than the national numbers.
Anyone who believes Labour will win 29% or more of the vote should imho back them at 1.75/1 to win Ladbrokes’ 0,+15%,+22% handicap market.
Comres poll due in the IoS tomorrow
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/201556.html
Ooh, Betfair has the F1 driver’s title market up for 2010 already.
Nothing stands out, though I have my eye on a certain driver.
What I’m seeing in Street homelessness is astonishing and disturbing me. I’m trying in my fuddled little head with some scribbled drawings to comapre it to the early 90’s recession. Its dramatically worse and has gotten dramatically worse dramatically quicker. Its still deteriorating. A certain sort of homelessness can be the ultimate lagging indicator in that it takes a while for someones life to so completely fall apart that they end up on the streets. The fact that its only now that this sort of case is starting to show up is horrifying as it suggests socially we have much further to go.
Matthew Parris has an excellent and amusing column today
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article6916257.ece
and it’s nothing to do with polytix
FTPT.
I know some PBers would be distraught if they missed this important post from the last thread. So here it is again.
**** STOP PRESS ****
The “STJOHN”, (St.John’s, The Jumps, Occasional Horseracing Nod), tipping service has been resurrected!!
STJOHN 09/10 first tip of the season.
BALLYFITZ, 1 pt each way at Cheltenham @ 6/1
by stjohn November 14th, 2009 at 12:42 pm.
BALLYFITZ should like the ground, which given the weather is a big plus.
As Scott P points out on the last thread, in tipping this one I am flying in the face of the advice of one of the Twin Towers of PB.com, Peter the Punter, who has tipped Chapoturgeon. However Peter was hoping that Ruby Walsh would his tip and the fact that he has elected to ride stable mate Poquelin is not encouraging.
Race is off at 2.35pm. We will know the winner soon enough? Will it be according to STJOHN? Or According to Pete?
35 I’d imagine the retail sector is trying to get as much cash through the tills as it can, and as much stock off the shelves before the VAT rise hits.
41. Absolutely. You only have to look at the regional breakdowns to see how well the Tories are doing in the Midlands, the south, Wales and the south-west. The “national” Conservative lead is nearly always at least 3% higher if you exclude Scoland.
45. grim news.
OT - Has anybody any strong picks for I’m a Celebrity? I’m backing Katie Price due to her popularity, she has been touring shopping centres recently signing her new book and the turnout has been massive so I was surprised to see that her price has lengthened from 7/1 to 12/1. Personally I think that is a bargain and have lumped on.
39 TimT “On your last point, retail closures post holidays, absolutely, and lots of them. More good, and highly visible, news for Labour. Don’t rule out double dip recession at all, and then all these fantasies of a hung parliament are gone for good.”
Couldn’t agree more. My local high street has approx 80 shop spaces - 50 of them are now empty.
These include what were a bookmaker, independent clothing/kids toys/kids clothes/music/hi-fi/camera/stationery/book/jewellers/gift/wedding shops and half a dozen estate agents.
And this is in Wealden - one of the Tories safest SE seats. IIRC - there are more millionaires per capita in this constituency than almost any other.
Things are very grim.
45. Are you associated with caring for the homeless?
7 John and others. Thank you.
30 runnymede. Thank you too. Bingo card duly marked.
9 tpfkar. Mike may have noted your request.
15 YS. I think there’s certainly something in the media boredom threshold theory. Indeed in the months before the 97 election there was a deal of nashing of teeth over the probability of Blair winning let alone the prospect of a landslide. This of course fed into shy Conservative Voter theory.
That said the media boredom threshold is much lower twelve years on what with the greater scrutiny of twenty four hour news channels, blogs and voracious dead wood outlets. The worm will turn several times before May/June 2010.
51 Is Katie Price really that popular? She’s been portrayed as somewhat of a demon figure by some, over her behaviour towards, and treatment of her ex-husband during their divorce.
35 GIN - This probably means that a number of retailers are taking the view that their turnover figures are likely to fall off a cliff when the 17.5% VAT rate is reimposed from 1 January - in fact if sufficient of their number introduce sales during November and December, this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What odds the UK economy grows in Q4 2009 only to go back into recession in Q1 2010? - Another argument for a March GE perhaps.
THE overblown Labour celebrations after yesterday’s by-election win said it all: this was a party desperately in need of some good news.
After months of terrible polls, blows and abuse, Jim Murphy and Iain Gray hailed victory in Glasgow North East like adrift men sighting a rescue vessel. Only time will tell if they were waving or drowning.
…
The question is, was this the last flicker of a dying government or can Gordon Brown now turn around his fortunes in time for next year’s general election?
The first clue will come in the next round of polls. If Labour can strip back the Tory lead nationally to less than ten points and start to make ground on the SNP at Holyrood then there will be something to build upon.
…
Well, let’s get back to reality. With no more than six months to go, it still looks like an impossible task. Locally, there are doubts over all four city Labour MPs, including Alistair Darling.
He will likely survive, as should Mark Lazarowicz. The SNP’s disappointing result in Glasgow suggests Edinburgh East will stay Labour too, and even Nigel Griffiths may scrape through if opposition splits between the Lib Dems and Tories.
But in Edinburgh, as across the UK, even if Labour’s bounceback continues it still looks to be more about damage limitation than securing the fabled fourth term.
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/politics/Labour-win-39It–still.5824768.jp
47 it may be worth using paddypower’s Money-Back Special
“If a Paul Nicholls trained horse wins this race (Chapoturgeon, Poquelin or Tatenen), we will refund your losing single stake.”
54. The media will have a field day when, mid-way through the election campaign one of the pollsters suddenly cuts the Tory lead to just 5%.
52- 50 out of 80?!
39. TimT
“On your last point, retail closures post holidays, absolutely, and lots of them. More good, and highly visible, news for Labour. Don’t rule out double dip recession at all, and then all these fantasies of a hung parliament are gone for good.”
Agreed, I’ve always expected a double dip recession.
I’m also interested in the unemployment numbers.
Last winter and spring there were large scale redundancies announced and the unemployment numbers increased at a record rate.
By the summer though redundancy announcements had dried up and we have also seen the unemploment figures stabilise.
However over the last few weeks the redundancy announcements have started again.
Could we be looking at a new year scenario of - falling retail sale and shop closures, VAT and fuel increases, rising unemployment, house prices falling again, increased debt from the Christmas shopping.
A grim background to an election campaign.
56. My friend in retail is convinced its going to be a double dip recession and things are getting progresively worse on the high stree Vs the situation back in summer.
I wonder if theres any chance Brown may delay the VAT rise until after the election?
33. Yes, there seems little evidence on Betfair of Labour optimists following their typing with good hard bets.
59 GIN. And you think PB will take such a poll with utter composure ?!?
Further to my post on the previous thread about celebrity endorsement boosting voting intention - there’s more - I really don’t want to see another version of Cool Britannia luvvy.
“David Cameron’s director of communications has instructed all Conservative frontbenchers to inform him of any celebrity likely to endorse the party at the next election.
According to insiders, Andy Coulson takes personal charge of the subsequent courtship of prospects. The most promising targets are usually invited to dinner with Jeremy Hunt, the Shadow Culture Secretary, with “A-listers” offered the chance to meet Mr Cameron himself.
The value of endorsements to the party depends of the breadth of the stars’ appeal. “We’d rather a Gary Barlow or Jamie Cullum than Razorlight, for example,” said a Conservative figure. “Mainstream trumps trendy.””
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6916582.ece
58. Sparky. Yes Paddy Power’s Money back Specials are always worth a look. I would have done today had I not had an offer from totesport for a free bet to match my stake up to £25 to redeem. Had to settle for 11/2 on my tip - but when there giving money away, you can’t really argue.
52 plato, I wonder how much of an effect the increasing popularity of internet shopping has had? Many of those retailers (clothing/toys/music/hi-fi/camera/stationery/books) cannot compete with the prices of big online sellers. It may be that the overall levels of retail sales in your area have remained the same, but that spending is being done online rather than the your local high street.
Jack W says: …. but post the Euro elections there have been some decent results for Labour in some local elections.”
Can he be precise as to these because the results so far do not appear to point to such an overall conclusion.
64. I won’t be able to deal with RodC’s crowing, so I’ll take that day off.
“the Conservative poll lead remains impressive if perhaps in the odd poll nudging toward hung parliament territory”
Really? Isn’t such an “odd” poll known as a “rogue”? Things might perhaps change with tonight’s polling, but I’ve seen scant evidence in the past year or so of hung Parliament polling.
I still think the Tories are on course for a majority - but a relatively modest one, of around 25-30. I believe we have now achieved a balance point that comes from desire for change meeting fear of the new - with some LibDem barnacles staying put. People have largely decided - and just want an election. But a 25-30 majority will in itself have been a mighty, mighty achievement for the Blue Team, considering their starting point.
I love joining in the Ave It-style banter around huge Tory majorities, and high profile Cabinet casualties, but I will be surprised if it happens. Equally, to shift the notion of a Tory majority, Brown needs a high-profile event-changer. Arguably they don’t come much bigger than last autumn’s economic meltdown, and Brown has not come out of that personally or electorally enhanced. Hard to even go through the mental exercise of attempting to design a scenario that would. I’d be interested to hear any that you can construct…
64. Thinking back to the autumn 2007 period I seem to recall PB being one of the few places that any kind of rational and thoughtful analysis of the polls was being conducted, although there was as always a decent chunk of hyperbole.
43 Scott - John Rentoul is pretty non-commital as regards the ComRes poll in the Sunday Indy, although he does make reference to the reduced Tory lead in the Populus poll earlier this week. By so doing this makes me think theirs will be similar, perhaps:
Con…..39%
Lab…..29%
LD……19%
Other…13%
We shall see soon enough!
62. GIN
“I wonder if theres any chance Brown may delay the VAT rise until after the election?”
It would look too political.
Labour are desperate to get growth in qtr4 and the best way to do that is to drag forward spending from next year.
Delaying the VAT rise also reduces tax receipts which are already running below budget forecasts.
68. The thing about local council elections is that the Tories reached a point in 2008 where they literally hit the ceiling. They got to the point where they just couldn’t go higher and the only way to go was down. In many of these local council by elections the Tories are trying to defend seats that by right they shouldn’t be holding in a million years. Labour was in the same position in its final year and as we all know council seats were being lost at the same time as Labour were romping to their 180 seat majority on May 1st 1997.
Jack an excellent thread and a fine contrast to David’s excellent thread this morning. I happen to subscribe to OGH’s 1st theory and fully expect Labour on polling day to sink to levels they have never seen in a General Election, i.e. sub30%.
Time will tell.
Jack W 54 - ‘nashing’ - that’s gnot like you!
72. PfP. I agree. If the poll was good for Labour I would have expected him to hint at that.
60 scarface - yes it’s appalling. Even charity shops have moved out - the local British Heart Foundation and Cancer Research ones closed after several years about a month ago.
I forgot to mention the independent: DIY shop, cycle shop, childrens’ dance/gym shop, recruitment agency x2, barbers, snack bar, off-licence, electrical small goods.
It’s really very harsh stuff - I’m struck by it. As someone who was brought up above my dad’s shop in a parade of about 30 back in Newcastle during the 70/80s, I’ve never seen anything like the collapse of trade here.
The only shops doing any sort of trade are the new Tesco and the pubs that are left [we've lost about half so far]. Some of the downturn will no doubt be down to Tesco sucking in trade [small electricals etc] from the rest of the High St - but that doesn’t explain all the rest.
26 - thats a huge if in my opinion.
Lets say it happened, would Gordon have more cabinet ministers actually elected than at present?
Sky also pressing the point today that numbers of economically inactive people are at there highest since records began (1971)
The number of people I know trying to get by on part time jobs is also higher than I can ever recall.
68. Richard III
There are always variation but local byelections have shown the Conservatives to be around 15% ahead of Labour.
The better results from them for Labour also seem to be in Labour strongholds.
55 - Articles like this have been common place around the country, bearing in mind that this is the likely voters I think it gives a very strong clue.
http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2009/10/25/thousands-queue-for-katie-price-book-signing-79310-25007360/
39 - TimT. More mind melding
I suspect you’re right. I live not far from the largest mall south of NYC and east of Dallas. I wandered round the other day, and found a single store front not open, which used to be a video store, and that is being readied for a new tenant and will open Thanksgiving week. There were two Starbucks in the mall, now there is only one, with another across the highway. The store front they had is reopened.
(For those who don’t know, the day after Thanksgiving - a Friday - is traditionally the opening day of the Christmas season and Americans are traditionally Big spenders).
Last year it was impossible to get near the mall once December hit. There were traffic jams all over the place all day, and it was a total zoo.
It will be interesting to see how this year compares.
Of course northern VA and the Atlanta metro area are both fairly affluent areas, so if they feel the effect than it is real.
61 another richard. Unfortunately, that is what i regard as the most likely scenario. Even as a natural conservative who hates socialism and all forms of the nanny state, who wants Labour never to rise from the ashes of this election, I say unfortunately.
70. 20-40 majority is what I’ve always expected. That would be achieved with Labour getting to 30% and the Tories on around 41-42%. However, looking at the way Labour are struggling to get to 30% and seem to be consistently polling around 27%, I’m having some doubts now. If Labour poll under 30% then the Conservative majority will be higher, say 50-60. With everyone concentrating on what the Tories are doing, most commentators seem to be ignoring Labour appalling position, a position thats considerably worse than the Tories in late 1996.
Can Gordon Brown do something about energy bills which seems to have risen giddily recently …. of course he can’t …. and this won’t help … and how food costs have risen …
It’s not going to be easy repairing the private sector’s balance sheets.
70 - “I still think the Tories are on course for a majority - but a relatively modest one, of around 25-30.”
I think it will probably be a bit higher than that, but your sentiment is sound. A lot of people forget that to get a majority of 1 the Tories will need to win more seats than they have at any election since the 1930s.
65 - re: celebs and Tories. Pinder ftw:
http://labourbollocks.blogspot.com/2009/01/guessing-game.html
Marina Hyde on
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/13/rupert-murdoch-no-10
Not as good as her previous, but worth a read.
“At last, the perfect motto to place above the lintel of No 10. This week, the prime minister’s official spokesman made a little speech which should be hewn into that central London terrace, the better to remind us of the hamstrung nature of the country of which he is nominally in charge. “He has regular communications with Rupert Murdoch, as you would imagine, and he has the most enormous personal regard for Rupert Murdoch … There is nothing unusual in the prime minister talking to Rupert Murdoch.”
The inscription would keep a stonemason busy for a while, certainly, and we’d have to change the “he” to “(s)he” for equality’s sake, but how much more grownup it would be to foreground this aspect of British politics that has long seemed axiomatic. The degree to which successive prime ministers have greased up to our foremost unelected foreign tax exile is perhaps their worst-kept dirty little secret – or rather, dirty great one.”
“Woman killer flees on shop visit
A woman convicted of murder has gone on the run during an escorted visit to the shops in south London.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/8360380.stm
Errr, what the *uck?
GIN, when I look at the detailed numbers, constituency by constituency, it is possible to see a route for the Tories to get a majority that would rip the heart out of Labour. But I think the Tories need two bites of the cherry to get there.
I will be delighted to be proven wrong!
69 Richard III. It’s seemingly perverse but of the 2010 by-elections upto thursday Labour actually are :
+2 overall .. 36 holds .. 13 gains .. 6 from the Cons.
In contrast the Tories are overall minus 14.
71 runnymede. Indeed. Although I wonder if the calm of PB might show the odd ripple during a general election campaign.
75 Easterross. Cheers.
76 FergusMac. Buggggger with plenty of gers !!
85. And it’s the lasting damage to household balance sheets which will continue to swamp any cyclical improvement in the economy in terms of the political fallout, just as was the case in the 1990s.
86
Pretty birds vote Tory
Ugly birds vote Labour
84 - I think the Glasgow by-election could be the springboard which helps the party get back its core vote, particularly with a few comments on immigration to win back votes lost to the BNP. Remember Labour has only gone below 30% once, in 1983, since the War and at that election there was a real prospect of it being replaced by the SDP!
90. JackW
Not perverse at all as the Conservatives are starting from a high point and Labour from a low point.
But can you separate out the local byelections of pre June local elections to those after it? IIRC the Conservatives struggled in the early months of the year but have done better recently.
93. HYUFD
Labour have no chance on winning back votes by pretending a tough line on immigration.
Why?
BJ4BW
82 TimB The mall that was hurting was in Montgomery Co Maryland (one of the ten richest counties in the US), but it is in Gaithersburg, one of the poorer areas in the county. I was also in Tysons in Fairfax Co Northern VA (a huge, very upscale mall - think Thomas Pink, B&O, Williams & Sonoma, Cranes, Lucky Jeans, Tiffany’s) also, not yet showing the effect. Fairfax is also in the top ten counties nationwide, headquarters to SAIC, Booz Allen (govt business) and a huge centre for offices of the airlines and telecomms, ie the boom businesses of government expansion. If Fairfax starts to hurt, then the news is truly grim.
90 “FergusMac. Buggggger with plenty of gers !!”
Better not point out “gloom laiden” then…
94 ar. Indeed, although polling would indicate continued labour mauling at by-elections regardless of the base point.
I’ll have a gander (thread pic) !! at the post June numbers.
88, reminds me of Baroness Corston’s pathetic feminist bullshit report on prison and women. Basically she argued no women at all should go to prison, instead living in 20 strong ‘communities’ sharing cooking and cleaning and going on supervised trips to the shops.
94. The Tories made somewhat bigger net gains in 1997 and 2001 in local byelections, and in both cases this generated articles along the lines of ‘perhaps the polls are wrong and in the polling booth the public will actually reject Labour’. Pure moonshine of course.
Re. this year the last Labour gain from Cons was in July. There were three in June and four more in Feb-April.
92 Plato, given your political direction of travel, I can only assume you are getting ever-lovelier!
101 I’m the Ursual Andress of PB
102 Oops Ursula
Ballyfitz (stjohn) Placed
Chapoturgeon (PtP) DNF
98 ar. Further. From July onward the figures are :
Labour hold 13 .. Gain 5 .. Lose 5.
OT. watching the Scotland rugby match. Not surprised that the RBS sponsors logo has been replaced; very surprised it has been replaced by Bank of Scotland !!
99.
I imagine quite a lot of women who aren’t criminals going for that.
82 I’m not sure about the point you’re making - last year the US, like everywhere else, was feeling the full flood of recession with share prices, house prices, etc collapsing. This year is surely bound to be better?
“STJOHN” off to a flyer for the season! BALLYFITZ 4th at 6/1.
25% return on stakes. Position after one bet is + 0.5 points.
96 - TimT - weirdly enough I’m quite familiar with the malls up there, having spent time on business in the DC / MD/ northern VA area - there are certainly examples around Atlanta - Greenbriar being the obvious one, home of the original Chic-fil-a store, and several others in less affluent parts of Atlanta, where the closed up store fronts are obvious and spreading, but it’s not got up to the more affluent parts of the metro area yet. Also I have not noticed many boarded up store fronts in strip malls - but there are some and a year ago there were not.
Had a quick butcher’s at the web site -
On black Friday the mall opens from 5am-10pm.
Interestingly enough, the mall is only extending hours 1 hour earlier and 1 hour later for the next week. There is no mention of extended hours on the website after that. That is different - usually they crow about the extended hours all the way to Christmas - then open early on 12/26 for the sales.
So maybe the cold fingers of recession are starting to nibble at the more affluent parts of town…we’ll see. The figures for the weekend after Thanksgiving should give us an indication.
92 Plato. Is that a Conservative thread picture then ??
Off to see my daughter do a dressage class. zzzzzzzzzzz
What do we predict the ComRes specials will show? My predictions FWIW:
I would support a phased withdrawal of British forces from Afghanistan, the aim being the end of combat operations within a year or so.
->Very leading question. 70-20 yes with 10 don’t know.
The threat of terrorism on British soil is increased by British forces remaining in Afghanistan.
-> A follow-on from a elading question: 65-20-15 don’t know.
The Sun was unfair to Gordon Brown over his handwritten letter to the mother of Private Jamie Janes.
As for the poll itself - flavour of the comment suggests say a 12 point lead. If it was under 10 he’d be calling it a sensational poll.
->65-25-10
David Cameron would handle the issue of Afghanistan better than Gordon Brown has done.
->30-30-40
Oops, sorry, comment on the poll itself inserted as an afterthought in the wrong line.
Where’s the real evidence that any real person feels sympathetic towards Brown? On Tuesday, the message boards of the newspapers were flooded by organised pro Brown comments that Mandy then used as evidence that The Sun was mad and bad. Lots of comments at the time about carousel propaganda.
Maybe because I work and live in the real world (ie private enterprise) the only comments I’ve heard about The Sun is they were a little over the line, perhaps, but Brown deserves all the cr@p coming his way as pay back for all the cr@p he’s foisted upon us over the years.
What all labour supporters like Jack W and their few media mates cannot see is the complete and utter contempt Brown and Co are held in. If the labourites could imagine how they all feel about Thatcher and double it, they still wouldn’t be anywhere close to the hatred felt for Brown, Mandy, Balls at al (with the obvious exception of the population in rotten boroughs in Glasgow)
82 - yes that’s true, but largely the house price collapse is behind us, housing markets are recovering, confidence is improving, and in some areas - metro Atlanta being one of them, and I imagine TimT’s greater metro DC area also - it never got as bad as in other areas. The price of houses in my area for example never fell more than 10-15% as evidenced from sales over the period, and is s-l-o-w-l-y recovering.
Unemployment is still rising here, and there are concerns of a ‘double dip’ recession. Companies are not yet hiring.
Last Christmas was fairly good (it held to a slight decrease, but no disaster) for the more affluent (mostly northern) areas of metro-Atlanta, where zoning is almost exclusively single family homes, no apartment blocks or duplexes.
My point was that if we are headed for a double dip, then this Christmas may well provide some evidence of waning confidence.
115 - There was a politics home poll of the public done that agreed with what seems to have become conventional wisdom. However, as discussed on here the questions were quite leading.
105. Since the Euro elections, the figures suggest:
Conservatives have defended 59 council seats and retained 45, a retention rate of 76%.
Labour have defended 22 seats and retained 16, a retention rate of 73%.
Liberal Democrats have defewnded 29 seats and retained 22, a retention rate of 76%.
I have so far seen nothing to suggest your statement about council elections is in fact correct.
I’ll say that tonight’s polls will be in the region of 40/28/18.
112 - I had to sit through innumerable ballet recitals and gymnastic displays with my daughter, so I sympathize with you.
I’m off for a Waffle House breakfast with grits - unhealthy but yum
115 saddo. “What all labour supporters like Jack W and their few media mates…”
Second line in my thread bingo line now up !!
112 “Off to see my daughter do a dressage class. zzzzzzzzzzz”
It may be slightly more interesting for you both when you actually buy her a pony…
Question for Nick Palmer, if he looks in again.
Nick. What are your current thoughts on the month of the next General Election betting? Obviously we are firmly into 2010 now. But when?
January and February are surely non starters?
March has shortened considerably recently and some shrewdies - PfP et al- have hoovered up this option at 25/1. Now best price 5/1. I think there would be a lot of flak going in March over avoiding holding a budget? Plus it’s not as good for party workers, weather-wise, as later.
April seems unlikely with the local elections in May and June looks desperate, hanging on to the bitter end.
I’ve got a good position on May but the price has eased to 1/3 with Ladbrokes as March has shortened. Should I cover March at current odds or let the bet ride?
117 (cont) You experience pretty much mirrors mine, general reaction I have picked up anecdotally was The Sun was maybe a bit over the top, but, the phone call, those that had listened to it had little sympathy for Brown.
However, I think as suggested on here most people won’t have listened to the phone call, and just got the snippets on the BBC / Sky and constantly heard this whole thing was just about Gordo misspelling the sons name with an m rather than n. Easy to see how given only that you can be lead to believe lot of casual politics observers thought the Sun were OTT.
Wonder if the Currant Bun will run a poll or something to try and back up their stance?
Good piece Jack, and a nice antidote to the herd groupthink.
In othe politicial news today, the real story is the revelation that Jeremy Hunt, the shallowest man in British politics actually has a purpose.
Those who thought he was appointed solely as a chocolate fireguard to protect the media from the ravages of News International will be surprised to learn that Hunt, the John Moore for a new millenium, is leading the Tories campaign to recruit celebrities.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/11/should-the-conservative-party-be-spending-time-courting-celebrity-endorsements.html
I can see that this makes sense.
How do you make a z list celebrity appear substantial and politically knowledgable?
Simple
“The most promising targets are usually invited to dinner with Jeremy Hunt, the Shadow Culture Secretary,
In that company Jordan and Kerry Katona appear to resemble Roosevelt.
Its a great idea, unfortunately the first tranche of celebs seems to have gone a little awry and one of the Tory recruits is Mr Frank Lampard, a particularly unlikable footballer who shot to fame abusing, and urinating in front of American Tourists at Heathrow on the day after 9/11.
But its a great strategy by Dave.
How do you make Jim Davidson look like a philosopher?
Put him next to Jeremy Hunt, thats how.
65 I don’t understand why politicians regard celebrity endorsement as important.
I far preferred the (anonymous) candidate in Butler & Kavanagh who commented to the effect that “every party is plagued by these people. They descend on your constituency for a few hours during the election campaign, expecting to be recognised, and thinking that they’re helping you.”
99 There was a nutty Conservative candidate for Islington South at the last election, who made the same argument. I don’t think her political career has progressed since then.
90 It’s similar to the local election gains the Conservatives began to make in the Summer of 1996. They boosted morale, a little, but it was only a case of recovering what had been thought of as safe seats.
Think the Tories are wallies for trying to hoover up celebrity support, especially after Blair, Cool Britannia, and the likes of the Gallaghers popping round for a coke. Trying to get some substantial business figures sure, but some moron actor or popstar, all very cringe-worthy.
And the thing is Labour are still doing it, and it does them no good. Vera Duckworth, whatever her real name is, was sent to Crewe and didn’t get a very good reaction. Fiona Phillips was a t#t of herself gushing at Postman Pat at the Labour Party Conference.
98. JackW
I’ve had at the numbers and by my calculations:
Up to and including 01/06/09:
Con -13
Lab +4
LD +10
Oth -1
Since the June elections:
Con -4
Lab +1
LD +8
Oth -5
Slightly different numbers to what you have overall Jack but it does seem that the Conservative performance has picked up since June and Labour are failing to make any progress.
It also looked like that many of the Labour gains and better performances were in Scotland or other strongholds such as Barnsly and Leicester.
I think that Labour have found an effective way of countering the SNP by going local and negative and attacking the Scottish Govt./local council as appropriate. If replicated in England and Wales this approach might help them hold on to a few seats where the local council is under opposition control.
The SNP will gain three seats at most in Scotland. I expect gains for the Lib Dems (I am one, so take this with a pinch of salt!) and for the Tories. Something like:
Con 3
Labour 33
Liberal Democrat 14
SNP 9
Not sure what the impact will be down south. Personally I don’t expect a big Labour recovery in national opinion polls prior to the election, but I think the result on polling day might be closer than most people were expecting up until recently.
Retail sales — at risk of stating the bleeding obvious, the reason shops chase Christmas sales is that unlike other times of the year, we overspend on stuff we do not need, to give as presents to people who by and large don’t want it.
Anecdotally, there seem to be more people out shopping recently but there are, as others have said both here and in America, an awful lot of boarded up shops.
118 Richard 111. My comment was :
“…. post the Euro elections there have also been some decent results for Labour in some local by-elections.”
It was carefully worded and bourne out by the figures upthread albeit they are somewhat limited in more recent months.
127 Quite. The majority of celebrities aren’t capable of anything approaching political (or any form of rational) thought.
You might just as well recruit a mollusc.
125 “Jeremy Hunt, the shallowest man in British politics…”
Oh tim, you are so fickle about dishing out that title!
126. Quite - just for a flavour of that, 1997 Tory gains from Labour included gains in places like South Holland, Broadland, Fylde, Fenland, Breckland, East Northants, Broxbourne…
I have always suspected Plato was one of The Ursual Suspects.
On Topic: I expect yet another dead-cat Brown bounce and am looking forward to it. Both the Spreads and the NOM market have moved in Labour’s favour after LetterGate and GlasgowNEGate.
What is needed is a poll showing the Tories back in Hung Parliament territory, if only for fun and profit.
‘Fun’ in that it will be fun to watch the Tory Herd in panic and denial mode and ‘Profit’ in that there will never be a better time to Back the Nasty Tories.
Good to see your name in lights, JackW.
133 - No ‘m not, Hunt wins by a distance.
136. In fairness, he is Ben Bradshaw’s opposite number. He’s not so much opposing as reflecting.
If you missed it - another brilliant episode
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00nxcfr/The_Armstrong_and_Miller_Show_Series_2_Episode_5/
Hmm Hunt, another one with a First from Oxford, fluent Japanese speaker, successful in business and made millions from his own company etc.
Do we know yet what Tim’s education and life achievements are yet? The whole farmer myth has been debunked, what will TimBot’s next incarnation be I wonder? Gangsta Rapper?
125 ‘In other politicial news today, the real story is the revelation that Jeremy Hunt, the shallowest man in British politics actually has a purpose.’
In your own shallow little world it may be TIMBOT, but outside, todays lead story is the rejection of an inquiry into abuse in Iraq.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8360431.stm
If only your poster boy Blair hadn’t followed his hero Bush, and taken us into that ill fated venture none of this would have happened.
Tonights poll will be 38-30-20.Comres usually give lower Tory leads,plus i think there will be a mini Brown Bounce after lettergate and there has been a slight change in the media narrative.If there is a mini bouncette it must be fightback/relaunch number 8234!!
129 Andrew Chamberlain. PBers will be most wary of predictions from a man who drives a Hillman Imp !!
139 - And appears to know as much about politics as he does about who lives in his house.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/06/14/tory-lies-over-rent-free-home-115875-21439054/
131. Jack W: “…. somewhat more limited in recent months.”
It is only 5 months since the Euro elections so “recent months” effectively covers all the period since then.
The figures so far presented do not support your original contention. Labour’s best time recently for local council elections was in fact on June 4th, the same day they lost almost 70% of their County / Unitary Councillors. A number of the gains on that day can be legitimately put down to special circumstances, which will frequently occur in such elections.
95 - I don’t expect Labour to see much improvement beyond 30% but I think comments on immigration such as those of Alan Johnson will help them recover their base. BJFBW may turn off liberals but it has broader appeal amongst the C2/DE segment Labour needs to shore up.
I think comparisons with Lanour’s 1983 result are a bit overdone given that a 28% share occurred when ‘Others’ accounted for a mere 2%. Had the ‘Others’ polled 12 - 15% in 83 Labour would have struggled to reach 25%!
Afternoon all.
We have had an extended period of the Conservatives leading by between 10 and 17 points in the polls, so if nothing much changes we might expect a final result to be a Tory lead of 12 to 14 points - enough for a very good majority, even without allowing for differential swing in key areas like the Midlands.
Of course, things might change. But barring anything unexpected and disruptive - which is always possible but which could work either way - we should be able to look at the strategic position just as we could in November 2008 or May 2009. The signs then were that Labour peaked in the post-financial-crisis period of last year, but that they made a disastrous strategic error in their bizarre and totally implausible denial of the need to control public spending in line with the massively reduced tax revenues which are now expected over the next few years.
I don’t think anything has changed. Brown is still Brown, Labour’s message is still confused and negative, their attacks are ill-judged and counter-productive, and their credibility is shot to pieces. Labour’s policies no longer come under any scrutiny at all; in fact they are completely ignored by the press and the public (remember ‘Gulags for Slags’? That vanished without trace, despite Brown saying it would come into effect immediately).
Meanwhile Osborne and Cameron have continued a nimble and strategically sound approach which eschews short-term advantage and is focused on getting things right for the GE and afterwards. Whilst one can point to the odd thing which hasn’t gone too well (such as Bedford and the AWS row), overall their campaign has been close to flawless.
In summary: it’s not in the bag for Cameron, but I believe the current betting odds overstate the probability of a hung parliament or Labour majority. Currently the Betfair price on Con Maj is 1.38, implying a 71% probability. Do Labour really have a better than one in four chance of recovering sufficiently to deny the majority? Not in my judgement.
143 - Would have thought you would have gone for the 1p phone call claim myself.
144 Richard 111. I think we’re dancing on a pinhead here. My statement was highly qualified and for good reason as you’ve more than adequately pointed out.
Local byelections 2009 which saw seats change hands between Labour and Conservatives:
12/02/09 Enfield LBC
Labour gain but in a split ward in 2006 which had a Labour lead. In safe Labour constituency.
05/02/09 N Warwickshire DC
Labour gain in a mining ward, BNP interventions seems to have hurt Conservatives.
26/03/09 Redditch DC
Labour gain after IIRC Conservative councillor resigned due to miscounduct. NPMP got very excited about this result.
02/04/09 Leeds MBC
Conservative gain from Labour in a marginal ward in safe Labour constituency.
23/04/09 Erewash DC
Labour gain of traditional Conservative ward. NPMP got very excited about this and rightly so, best Labour performance of the year perhaps.
04/06/09 Chorley DC
04/06/09 Gravesham
04/06/09 S Ribble
All Labour gains on local/Euro elections day. Strangely they are all areas whre Labour did badly in otherwise.
20/07/09 Warwickshire CC
Labour gain in traditional safe Labour ward after Conservative councillor elected in June was disqualified.
23/07/09 Derbyshire Dales DC
Labour gain of rural ward with big personal vote perhaps. Safe Conservative constituency.
30/07/09 Broxtowe BC
Conservative gain of mining ward. Worst Labour performance of year perhaps.
30/09/09 Medway BC
Conservative gain of traditional Labour ward.
Local byelections do suggest that we are in a political holding pattern as is also bourne out by the opinion polls.
Good afternoon all - how pleasant and civilised it is on PB today.
Any Answers on R4 opened with a discussion of the Sun, Mrs Janes and Gordon. I was expecting overwhelming sympathy for the latter after the general media narrative on the subject and was surprised by how balanced the response was. Any Answers reflects the views of the callers pro rata. If everyone is against the war in Iraq then all the calls will be anti-Iraq. (as sometimes happened), so the response must have reflected the overall views of all callers. It was quite notable that criticism of Brown was more vocal than sympathy for him, which was pretty qualified. This of course was partly sensitivity to the feelings of a grieving mother, but it in no way reflected the more bullish utterances condemning the Sun and rallying round Brown, both on and off this site.
I know one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from a very small straw in the wind like Any Answers, but my hunch is Lettergate is not going to have the strong influence on the polls as I (for one) initially feared. And I can’t imagine the result in Glasgow changing minds. I’d predict a marginal improvement for Labour probably of the softest kind. Sorry JackW - no gamechanger in sight, but a very nice thread. Nice geese too.
123 - stjohn, I agree with your analysis. I know serious people who think March 25 a good idea, so I supposae you shouldn’t bet the farm against it, but I really can’t see it myself. Nor can I see any other month except March or May.
I really think some people here are like Mr Oborne and have not adjusted themselves to the new situation. The two-party system has gone; we now have two and a half main parties but several significant others: UKIP, Greens and BNP, as well as lots of independents. It is very unlikely that any party will ever get near 45% again. Anti-Tory voting, for the present, has gone and been replaced by anti-Labour voting; its effects will be most seen in all the marginals particularly the Midlands. The inherent and apparent bias against the Tories has largely disappeared, although not completely. Just as Labour in 2005 won a big majority of 67 with only 35% of the votes and a lead of 3%, I believe the Tories could do something similar. Provided the Tories have a 4% lead over Labour they will win the election with a small overall majority. I expect them to get 42% with Labour on 27% and therefore a very big majority. But only if they stop in-fighting.
153 I accept, it is very hard to see one party winning 45% again.
It’s why I think it might be more fruitful to look at the overall shift from Left to Right (or vice versa) when considering which seats might fall.
148 - Ah yes the 1p phone call where Mr Hunt set out his entire political thought.
155 - I think your criticism of peoples intellect have more credibility if we knew more about TimBot’s level of academic achievement.
155 - I still find it amusing that you’re accusing Hunt of being vain and politically lightweight when the person he shadows is Ben Bradshaw.
You might as well accuse Liam Fox of being too thick, dull and facial-haired to be Defence Secretary.
have -> would have
Two articulate and nicely contrasting threads. Well done pb.
A mildly predictable consensus though - Labour are almost certainly screwed if they persist with Brown; they will persist with Brown.
I am now in the world’s “most laidback capital”. It is certainly very languid, full of people cycling about in the sun; it could be Cambridge on a summer’s day in the 1930s, except for the ant egg soup in the markets.
Khorb jai!
157 - David Starkey demolition of Bradshaw on QT was extremely amusing.
155 - tim, out of interest, do you still claim to be an (arable IIRC)farmer? If that assertion months back was meant as a joke (fair enough), what line of work do you actually pursue if you don’t mind my asking?
Local byelections in principle authorities in the year before May 1997:
Con +25
Lab -7
LD -10
Oth -8
In reality the Conservatives regaining wards they should never have lost in the first place.
161. If it was a joke, it was a VERY long running and unfunny one.
tim made comments about the EU & CAP which were premised on his supposed personal experience, for instance.
161 - We have also had school owner as well as one point.
Tim’s reaction to events and opinions, when given here, are transparently revealing.
From today’s ‘contribution’ we can safely assume that ‘celebrities’ are deserting Labour in droves or failing to come aboard, personal attacks on Jeremy Hunt are due to a perceived threat to Labour by his recruitment drive and that Tim is still a dishonest, untrustworthy shill.
On a brighter note, it has finally stopped raining here in Wiltshire.
I really do think that most of you underestimate the public distaste for Brown and Labour at the moment. After lettergate this week most people see a pathetic man that screwed up a simple message of condolence to a grieving mother. Why do people and some of the media perceive that feeling sorry for Brown will boost his poll ratings?
In 3 weeks time the PBR will lay before us more evidence that Labour have screwed the country and near bankrupt it ! Do you really think the country will let this lot back in?
No!
Certain sections of the media want a close run contest … It’s exciting and sells newspapers and ratings!
Just consider this though- What if their is the fear of a hung parliament or a small labour win, it could work the other way and further boost the Tory share!
6 months is still a long time to the GE but remember this, if the economy does improve The Tory lead could increase to pre economic crisis levels !
161 - Since you’re visiting, I was wondering yesterday how you first heard about pbc? I vividly recall your anguished contributions here during the 7/7 or 25/7 attacks back in 2005, but can’t remember how you were first seduced into our mighty throng.
(
). talking to myself…was meant for Sean!
165 SimonStClare , out of interest whereabouts are you in Wilshire?
166 - I think you are right in saying “certain sections”, the Telegraph for instance certainly didn’t go for the sympathy line. And after PMQ’s, there were quite a few articles in various papers talking about Brown living in his own la-la land (actually just as offensive as claiming something about his hand writing and spelling, especially given the whole on the happy pills rumours).
167. Crikey, have I been posting for that long!?
I can’t honestly remember how I happened upon pb. I used to get in convoluted and intense rows about leftism and Islam on Harry’s Place, but that got a bit repetitive, and I sort of wandered here. Just surfin’ maybe.
Then I horribly insulted some pb-ers and I was accused of hateful arrogance, and I knew this was the place for me. pb duly became my “local”.
I may be posting a little less for the next week or two, btw - heading into deepish jungle.
170 (cont) However, I am not going to fall over my seat if Gordo does get a mini-bounce, wall to wall coverage on the likes of the BBC with the general gist of it him being “bullied” by the Sun, and I think as NPMP rightly pointed out getting the message out that he personal writes to families (even though it MoD policy and was done by all previous leaders) was spun extremely favourably.
all previous leaders -> previous leaders since Thatcher.
161 ‘Lazy journalist/backwater academic/party apparatchik’ with a medical background, would be a reasonable assumption.
166 public distaste for Brown and Labour (Wayne)
Labour, certainly. Brown — I’m still not seeing the personalised hostility to Brown that there was for both Thatcher and Blair. It’s the economy.
Any ETA for ComRes?
152. Thanks Nick. I will let the bet ride but keep my ear close to the ground.
Part of my concern about a March election is that Ted has posted here that he thinks a March election very likely. I’m not aware that Ted bets but I rate his judgment up with the best on PB.
William Hill have removed their Edinburgh South prices, so my guess is that those of you who missed my suggestion to buy CON at 6/4 have missed that particular boat.
The 13/8 on the Lib Dems is still available from Paddy Power.
177 Yep. Ted is one Shrewd Dude….
175. John L “I’m still not seeing the personalised hostility to Brown that there was for both Thatcher and Blair”
You need to look outside a Dutch focus group…
165 - Frank Lampard is a real catch for the Tories.
He is a supporter of the Conservative Party, but admitted that he had yet to vote in an election
181 There’ll be plenty like him come the election. First-time Tories.
I imagine the 50% tax band will leave Labour without much “Premiership” support…
Maybe Keith Harris and Orville.
Oh, and Baldrick.
172.I’m waiting for the next “surprise” visit to the troops in Afghanistan within the next few weeks to cement Brown as a War leader in the model of Churchill!!
175.I tend to disagree John.In my part of the world in the Midlands,surrounded as i am by key marginals there is a deep distaste for Brown.He isn’t popular,however i do work with,and know people who would vote Labour with a different leader in place.
175. Then you don’t get out much. My mum is very mildly conservative (small c) economically, but socially liberal within reason; she is working class and educated and reads the Times AND the Mail. She probably supported Thatcher AND Blair, in turn (I have never directly asked her).
All in all she’s a real swing voter, in a very, er, swinging part of the country, Cornwall.
The other day she said of Brown, apropos of not much, on the phone to me, that he was “a stupid, ridiculous man”. This was said with REAL venom. Pure contempt. I never heard her speak so harshly of Blair or Thatcher.
That’s just my mum, of course, but she is representative. Brown is regarded as weak (like Major); worse than that, he is regarded as a liar, a failure, and a hypocrite (all that “moral compass” bollocks). He is actively despised by many people.
This is why Labour will lose the election. People will go into the booths and think: “Five more years of that pompous Scottish idiot, lecturing me? No bloody thanks.”
181 - You might want to think about that one a bit TimBot….it is far from a bad quote for the Tories (however, my initial criticism of celebrity endorsement still stands).
Betfair - Next General Election - Overall Majority
Conservative Majority 1.38
No Overall Majority 4.6
Labour Majority 16
Any Other Party Majority 160
I’ve just noticed an interesting snippet on a post by John Rentoul last Tuesday:
The Labour Party is - theoretically - committed to a ballot of its members before the election anyway. (Little-noticed rule change in 2007: the party must put its programme, or draft manifesto, to a one member, one vote ballot; they may be hoping it stays little-noticed.)
Is that true? And will it actually happen? It sounds like trouble if it were to happen…
Looks like the old 50% tax is getting some early jumpers, from an article on Lampard coming out the closet,
“Rod Stewart says he’s ditching Labour for the Tories. Marco Pierre White wore claret smoking jacket for Tory event.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2007/11/07/lampard-i-m-true-blue-115875-20072584/
Get ready for Palin overkill
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6569264/Sarah-Palin-should-succeed-O-in-2012—Oprah-that-is-not-Obama.html
185. Celebrity endorsements are pretty much useless, they may even be actively counter-productive: making parties looks gimmicky, trivial and desperate.
However, they are utile in one significant way: they show when the zeitgeist is trending rightwards.
Generally, British celebrities are leftish and Labour (for the same reason Hollywood stars tend to be Democrat in America, cause celebs are rich and feel a bit guilty about it, and want to show they care about poor people).
So a lot of popstars saying they want Labour to win means precisely zip. Thatcher was hated through most of the 80s by almost everyone in the media and showbiz: she kept winning.
Yet, when popstars and celebs and soccer players etc feel able to say This time I’m voting Tory, then that is counterintuitive, and interesting, and shows how strongly the tide is flowing to the right.
I remember for instance, some “working class” pop stars saying they were going to vote Tory in 1979, such was their despair at soc1alist Britain. Paul Weller is the classic example.
And of course the Tories won.
Tracey Emin’s remarks on 50% tax point to a bit of a Paul Weller moment. Likewise the comments from Michael Caine.
Funnily enough, the biggest drop on the Betfair line market since the Glasgow NE declaration has been the Conservatives. The SNP have only dropped 1.25 seats; whereas the Conservatives have dropped over 5 seats.
190. Arch-luvvie Sir Peter Hall was another who voted Tory in ‘79 in despair over Labour, whom I seem to recall him saying had turned Britain into a ‘land without opportunity’.
190 - “Celebrity endorsements are pretty much useless, they may even be actively counter-productive: making parties looks gimmicky, trivial and desperate.”
Couldn’t agree more, and also if they do any campaigning their potential for a “foot in mouth” incident is extremely high.
Are Gary Lineker’s politics public knowledge?
193 (cont) But as you say the “shy / embarrassed to be a Tory” factor seems to be diminishing, if the likes of Lampard feel free to openly make positive remarks about Tories, and Cameron in particular, to national newspapers.
191 Stuart Dickson. Here’s a good tip. When referencing Betfair markets and especially the less liquid ones,istead of referencing the market itself, cite the ‘Last Traded Price’(LTP).
Eg. CON 359.0 SNP 13.0 LAB 205.0 LD 52.0. This gives a far better flavour of what is really happening.
For a lomg time the Country had simply stopped listening to Brown. The danger for the Tories is this that after lettergate in which the voters reckoned that he was unfairly treated (as indeed I do) it is just possible that the Country will start listening to him again.There might even be a bit of a feeling that we have all been a touch unfair to him.Personally I don’t think we have but then I’m a Tory supporter ( more especially a Cameron supporter)and not a swing voter these days. I have to say I await the next set of opinion polls with a degree of trepidation knowing that the Media just want a new narrative of yet another Brown bounce.See for example the hugely ovehyped win in Glasgow.It had a sepcial programme on BBC News - Henley last year(an equivalent Tory Seat) barely rated a mention.
194 - Well he did launch that “Tickets for Troops” thing with Cameron the other week, but stressed it wasn’t political, simply in it for the good cause.
Back from the snoozefest that is dressage.
120 TimB Not got into grits yet tho my wife, a northerner, loves them. Give me good old Irish steel cut oats.
122 Marquee Mark. We have 18 of the beasties in the back yard. She’s graduated from ponies to Irish Sport Horses. Dressage is a necessary evil if you’re an Eventer. Love watching her go cross country and even show jumping. Just can’t get into the dressage, no matter how hard I try.
TimB On house prices. Yes, inner metro DC area relatively lightly hit, outer exurbs badly hit. Some areas of Bethesda, especially the Walt Whitman high school catchment area (NIH neighborhood), actually never went down. Chris from Bethesda might also have a view.
194. I believe it’s well known in his home city that the families politics are the same colour as his football club.
Deputy FM Nicola Sturgeon and Tory leader Annabel Goldie stand side by side in opposition to the “Scottish Defence League” (ie. the English Defence League).
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/137272-police-ensure-protest-march-goes-off-peacefully/
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/137240-massive-police-presence-ahead-of-scottish-defence-league-march/
200 The colour being?
196. Thanks URW.
202. Leicester and Everton are both blue.
Re 196.A lot of skullduggery does go on, with The Sharp Minds trying to create a false impression.
Example: I am asking for 1.16 for a Tory Most Seats in 2010.I got matched for 1p ! So any casual visitor would see that the LTP was 1.16.
204. Er, I think.
187 Richard Nabavi
Is that a line item simple majority vote, or a take it or leave it vote on the entire manifesto. If the latter, it could take a while to get agreement!
202. justin.
Leicester City play in blue.
That’s interesting, actually. Lineker to be the next Seb Coe?
I have just place bets with several bookmakers on the LDs to win Hampstead and Kilburn at 7/4 and 13/8. This analysis of the effect of the boundary changes on this seat based on 2005 ward by ward results shows the LDs in a very good position in this seat:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/calcwork.pl?seat=Hampstead%20and%20Kilburn
Unfortunately the ward changes do not help Sarah Teather in Brent Central.
192 He came to object very strongly to Margaret Thatcher because she shopped at Marks & Spencer.
204 and 206 SeanT
Everton certainly is a deep blue.
Lineker’s brother was jailed over tax evasion - so that tends to point the same way.
Also, whilst we’re vaguely on the topic, isn’t there a long running rumour that Sir Mick Jagger is a Tory supporter?
199 Dressage is just so - unnatural….
That said, many years back we had a thoroughbred colt with a great temperament, helluva beast, 17 hands, who despite his impeccable breeding was too lazy to take to racing. He did, however, turn out to be exceptional at dressage. I believe he was part of the Canadian national team.
209. Lineker does come across as a classic soft-right Tory, ambitious but caring, yadda yadda.
I’d hazard a guess that a lot of top football players are Tory - having made lots of money through their own skill and effort - but they probably keep quiet about the fact. And they are very sensible to do so.
Is it true that Andrew Rosindells dog is named after Buster Mottram the NF supporting tennis player?
So, the last ComRes in the IoS was a 12 point lead (40-28) and the last ComRes midweek (more recent) a 13 point lead (40-27)
The limited evidence lately suggests a one or two point fallback for the Tories re Euro positioning and this week perhaps sees a little tea, sympathy and narrative with Brown.
38/39 - 29/30 looks the money for the main two in ComRes
Last YouGov 41/27 - so on the ame basis 39/40 - 28/29
If UKIP have added a couple points since the last poll for each then some seepage over Europe looks confirmed, but of course is still in ‘knee-jerk’ territory
In terms of ‘good result’ trend-wise
Tories 40 plus any poll
Labour 30 plus any poll
Lib Dems 20 plus any poll
UKIP 5 plus = traction
215 Marquee Mark
Did you breed the colt? Sounds like he would have been superb for breeding eventers - athletic with good temperament, tall, stamina.
218 and poor results would be
Tory sub 38
Labour sub 27
Lib Dem sub 17
214. Having met, ahem, Mick, I can confirm that he is probably a Tory. In fact - like football players - I suspect a lot of famous pop stars are Tory, but they just don’t mention it, for very good reasons.
Perhsaps the rule of thumb should be: when a pop star or actor or celeb or sportsman goes on about politics, they will very likely be from the left. The ones who stay shtoom are, ipso facto, on the right.
188. Oracle, that stupid bint wrote this in that mirror article:
‘So let’s hope he’s not left feeling too blue when the Tories lose the next election…’
Its the use of the word ‘when’ and ‘if’ thats makes her a smug cow
221 SeanT. I’d venture that there’s a third group of celebrities - the hypocrites. Those who go on about helping the poor but live in tax havens, and those who go on about Scottish Nationalism but live in the States.
221. I’ll not post the picture of you with your old mucker Mick, then.
Mildly interesting discussion here of “Rock Tories”:
http://www.wordmagazine.co.uk/content/rock-tories
Ian Curtis is an interesting one.
It is also likely that many do not have firm political allegiances.
217 Nah*, tim - his dog was named after Buster Bloodvessel, the lead singer of Bad Manners (a band formed in Manor House, not too far from his Romford constituency). Far more in common than with Kingston-born Mottram.
* Or perhaps I should say “Ne-Ne Na-Na Na-Na Nu-Nu…..”
174 - party bod is my reading of him
207 TimT - I don’t any more than that line from Rentoul, but I’d guess it’s on the whole package. It sounds a very impractical idea.
217 I always thought his dog was named Spike.
175 - no hostility to Brown?
Where are you hiding yourself?
The main is loathed and laughed at
199 - thought better of the Waffle House - went to 5 Guys, and I KNOW you have them up your way. bacon Cheeseburger and extra large fries. It’s the only place I know in the US who put out malt vinegar for the fries. Most people here drown them in ketchup.
5 Guys of course are famous for having no freezers on site and only using fresh potatoes, and never frozen beef with no fillers and no preservatives….
I bet I enjoyed my brunch more than you enjoyed the dressage
There’s something unnerving about MPs kissng dogs on the mouth.
http://www.britishblogs.co.uk/images/318428.jpg
169 – Edp, Sorry for not responding sooner, I was called away by a blazing log fire and an invitation by Mrs StC to watch an old classic on TV, these things should never be ignored.
I’m based in South Wiltshire, 3 miles north of Salisbury, Robert Key is the MP.
219 TimT, my step-father bred him (and I can clearly remember watching him being born). He bred them back in the days when the enthusiastic amateur could still have a chance of getting a good ‘un for racing.
I suspect that he was cut before he embarked on his dressage career. He was a lovely horse - big white blaze. We weren’t quite sure where that came from in the breeding!
227 Richard Nabavi. Pointless if it is to be a rubber stamp, costly and time consuming if they keep on voting until the get it ‘good enough’
Philosophically, it is objectionable too. Political leaders are meant to do what (at least they think) is right for the country, not what is going to cause least objection, which is what the proposed system would seem to select for.
223. I’m not sure if Ian Curtis would make anyone want to pin on a blue rosette on their lapel, given that he had one of the grimmest suicides ever. The last thing he saw on earth was “Stroszek,” for Christ’s sake.
222. TimT.
One of the things that amused me watching the 1992 election broadcast was that even back then they were taking the piss out of Sean Connery for hypocrisy…
Plato - if you are indeed from Wealden, congratulations as you have achieved immortality.
On today’s edition of the NPR not very serious quiz show “Wait, Wait - don’t tell me” there was a question about the town council of Wealden (yes, the one in England): they gave three options as to what they had done, and the correct one was to appoint a scrutiny panel to oversee - the scrutiny panel.
If you download the podcast from iTunes, it’s about 40 minutes in.
228 Nope - Buster: WARNING - distressing image alert!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5582209/MPs-expenses-Tory-MP-Andrew-Rosindell-has-childhood-home-as-main-address.html
(He had a Spike in 2001 though - so says Wiki)
222 - yes, doesn’t Sir Sean Connery live in southern Spain and the Bahamas?
It’s a bit like all those ‘Boston Irish’ who wax lyrical about the old country, give money to the IRA via Noraid and love the country so much they’ll do anything short of actually visiting it.
235 - Ian Curtis still inspires some obsessive fans
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/7486280.stm
237 Thanks.
It would be funny if he had named the dog after Buster Mottram, although I expect Buster is quite a common name for a Staffie.
230 - Hmm, 5 Guys Burgers……
Ian Curtis is a fascinating example (and the recent biopic of him is brilliant, btw, if anyone has missed it).
I detected, and still detect, a genuine hint of Fascism, or at least serious rightwingness, in Joy Division’s beautiful but sinister music. I know the late Tony Wilson claimed the Nazi motifs in his Factory bands was his own Situationist mischief at work, but, sorry Tony, don’t buy it.
Listen to Closer and Unknown Pleasures. It’s the same doomed and violent romanticism you find in great rightwing poetry: like T.S.Eliot, or Housman, even Larkin.
And it’s a lot f*cking better than Billy Bragg.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5536583/the-perfect-storm.thtml
“The UK debt crisis has three constituent parts – household, government and banking. The fact that households, government and banks all went on a debt binge at the same time makes the risks for the UK economy so unusual.”
I’m going to take a risk with this but I think you will be all surprised with the polls tonight, I’m expecting a real surprise!
239 - Dog kissing is grim.
243 - Sorry got my H and M the wrong way around,
Mmmmmmmmhhhh, 5 Guys burgers
239. You can almost hear the conflicting thoughts in Sir Sean Connery’s head.
Big house in Marbella, or…. Dundee?
Beachside villa in the Bahamas or…. buy an entire block of flats in the Gorbals?
Tricky.
If the Indie allegations are true, Labour deserve a true reckoning. It’s utterly shameful.
230 Good call on the 5 Guys. Local TV news just did a taste test on McD’s new 1/3lb Angus burger, Wendy’s gourment burger and 5 Guys. Blind test, 73% chose 5 Guys, most definitive blind test they’ve ever done. What’s more, you get to munch on fresh peanuts from their shells while waiting for your burger to cook.
Not such a fan of Waffle House. IHOP …
240 I’m thinking his dog Spike was probably NOT named becuase of Andrew Rosindell’s high regard for the work of Spike Lee, whose movies examine race relations, the role of the media in contemporary life, urban crime and poverty, and other political issues.
Rather, this chap:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_2oUmI3KMEnY/SbCnJkDPZhI/AAAAAAAAB7o/rhJRM10BKcg/s320/bodyguard+2.jpg
251 - It is an absolute no brainer in my book.
Goord evening all Rosslyn Park Supporters Worldwide!!!.
Terrible day weatherwise, the planes coming in on the landing path to Heathrow were going straight down the track over the ground, but the planes’ noses were pointed 10 degrees to the west, thats how strong the wind was
Anyway Park won 14-11, with a penalty with the last kick of the game, to send the supporters home happy.
Phillip Oppenheim, former Tory MP for Amber Valley, had the best political dog.
I believe he called it Vom…
191. SD
“Funnily enough, the biggest drop on the Betfair line market since the Glasgow NE declaration has been the Conservatives. The SNP have only dropped 1.25 seats; whereas the Conservatives have dropped over 5 seats.”
They were at 362 until I cleared it out 2 days ago.
Completely OT but
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6565567/Texas-man-blames-bird-for-making-him-drive-his-1m-sports-car-into-marsh.html
ouch
255 - He now owns a bar with Fidel Castro
“Murdoch Attempting to Buy the UK General Election for the Conservative Party”
“…we are back to an age of press barons such as Rupert Murdoch attempting to buy the next general election for the Conservative Party for influence.”
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15049.html
Amazing how Murdoch switching to Labour was okay…..
251 & 253 - also ordered extra large fries, brought them home and am watching the college football slowly eating them, and turning into a large couch potato: I KNEW there is a reason I go to the gym 5 days a week
260 - yep, Labour really dont like not being in the driving seat do they.
Get over it, you had your turn, you f*cked up monumentally and there is a price to pay for that.
260 Well, Labour supporting media=good doesn’t it? It’s only when they go offside that they’re considered to be the Great Satan.
Sun supporting Labour = Democratic will of the people
Sun supporting Tories = Evil billionaire foreigner raping our democracy
The other thing I do not get about Sean Connery is that he is a Rangers supporter.
I think a lot of new wavers etc said they were going to support the Tories back in the late 70s as a kind of shock thing - didn’t David Bowie also say the same thing? Now, a lot of them seem to have embraced green politics as a kind of cop out.
Celebrity endorsements always end in tears. The ones on the left are usually tedious and kind of earnest. The ones on the right monsters of rock and a bit twisted.
TimT - went to the 5 guys by the mall. The mall is very busy, parking lot almost full. Nice day in mid-70s.
The 5 guys manager was chatting while I was waiting, and he confirmed something I’ve heard from many restaurant people in the south east - the meanest crowd is the sunday lunchtime crowd from church (you can always tell as they’re always well dressed): they are impatient, bad tempered, and leave lousy tips.
246 - but what would be a surprise to you please - an increased Tory lead- a reduced Tory lead??
244 SeanT, assume you mean “Control”? If so, I’d second your sentiment on it being a top movie.
Went to see “An Education” last night. Carey Mulligan (Sally Sparrow) is every bit as superb as people say. The camera loves her. However, her boyfriend, played by Peter Saarsgard, spends the entire movie looking disconcertingly like Ed Balls. Which was a little off-putting…
Rosamund Pike is quite excellent too.
another richard - I think I like your betting style.You are another scavenger as I am myself.
I may just have to have you eliminated !
Peter Oborne:
“History shows us that governments tend to improve their popularity in the polls during the run-ups to general elections, so Cameron’s lead is likely to drop away slightly in the coming months.”
…
“An internal Tory Party document sets out the scale of the problem, stating baldly: ‘The Conservatives have never won a General Election from a starting point as weak as they face now.’”
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/columnists/article-1227718/PETER-OBORNE-As-Brown-survives-hellish-week-dawning-Cameron-victory-isnt-bag.html
268 ‘Rosamund Pike is quite excellent too.’
You want to see her in the flesh as I did during the week at a screening.
270 Read Mr Herdson on the last thread.
259 Gabble, why are you quoting an article in “the Market Oracle” - ooooh! FT is a-quaking - that projects Labour will get 225 seats in 2010? Is that what passes for good news these days??
266 Tim B Can’t say that I am surprised. I have 50% ownership of a restaurant in Philly. The staff dread the European clients - same reasons.
Of again on family duties…
I don’t think there’s much surprise about Frank Lampard being a Tory. He is probably the only member of the England squad to have gone to private school, though maybe Peter Crouch did as well come to think of it.
Jose Mourinho is very supportive of right wing Portuguese political parties and Cappello has expressed his admiration for Franco. I’d be surprised if there were many left wing golfers, cricketers or rugby union players (at least English ones).
Paul Breitner, the German international footballer from the 1970s, once described himself as a Maoist though!
Can’t even f##kin have a Xmas light turning on event these days,
At least seven people have been injured during a crowd surge at Birmingham’s Christmas lights switch-on.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/8360560.stm
271 I would be most happy to see an excessive amount of Ms Pike’s flesh….
Lucky bugger you!
BTW Herself went to a private screening last week of “The Tempest” in LA, which has now had nine months of special effects put on. She says it is looking damn fine. Looking at a big Cannes opening in competition next year…
270 - Like Gabble, Oborne knows f@@k all about psephology and opinion polling.
He’s a deadbeat dead tree press hanger on whose latest efforts are based on sloppy and lazy generalisations.
You remember the stuff the other day about “Thatcher dies” ??
I give you the comments from Harry’s Place
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/11/13/thatcher-dies/
Roger would be at home there, we know tim is
275 - What has going to private school got to do with? It seems 99% of the Guardian went to private school, but I doubt any of them are Tory voters.
279 This was quite a good anecdote from the comments:
“Another strange incident involved the British skiffle singer Lonnie Donegan. The performer underwent a heart by-pass operation in the 1980s and bafflingly caused the Japanese stock exchange, the Nikkei, to plunge dramatically.
At first, no-one could understand precisely why this had happened. But the truth was quickly revealed. A Japanese broker, reading the financial wires from the United States, mistook the name ‘Donegan’ for ‘Ronald Reagan’, the then US President. Happily, order was quickly restored, and the world breathed again.”
270. “An internal Tory Party document sets out the scale of the problem, stating baldly: ‘The Conservatives have never won a General Election from a starting point as weak as they face now.’”
And, quite unprecedented, is the devastation wreaked on the Great in Great Britain by Labour - one hopes there are sufficient Tory votes to bury Labour under a heap of crap for at least a generation-and-a-half.
Shame-I normally accord some respect to Harry’s Place.
280 “It seems 99% of the Guardian went to private school…”
Shhhh! That information is the subject of a D-Notice! It is filed under “You are not supposed to know this shit because it is politically embarrassing. Erase. Erase. Erase….”
I wish we still had the edit feature.
279. IF Mrs Thatcher has to die - I sometimes wonder if God will have the guts to tap her on the shoulder - then I’d like her to die, if you know what I mean, during this Labour administration (or the next one in 2024-2026).
Because the conflicted Oedipal reactions of the governing lefty politicians will be a sight to behold.
Their essentially juvenile inner beings will rejoice that their tormentor and conqueror has finally gone. Yet the more intellectual amongst them will realise and honour the passing of a worthy opponent. And of course all of them will, deep down, know that she was the greatest peacetime prime minister of the 20th century. Like it or not. There they have to mark her passing with proper decorum.
So how will they react? With a kind of eerie, repressed, sneering, giggly, embarrassing, semi-elegiac confusion, is my prediction.
270 - At this point in 1978 the Conservatives were behind in the polls.
If we take mouth-watering details from 5 Guys Burgers to be one end of the fast-food spectrum, then I guess this place is at the other:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8360569.stm
Whooooomp….
259. “Murdoch Attempting to Buy the UK General Election for the Conservative Party”
That’ll be the same Murdoch as the one Brown sucks up to?
“Gordon Brown has “the most enormous personal regard” for media magnate Rupert Murdoch, Downing Street said today amid reports that the prime minister telephoned him directly to complain about the Sun’s criticism of his government’s handling of the war in Afghanistan.”
280 - I could be wrong, but my guess is that privately educated people are more likely to vote Tory. We could get into a debate about why that is, but we would both get very bored and so would everyone else.
280 (cont) The Alumni from Lampard’s school is a real interesting pick ‘n’ mix bag, including Douglas Adams through to me Jack Straw and Andrew Lansley and all the way to Keith Allen and Noel Edmunds.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brentwood_School_%28England%29
John Rentoul flagging up Com Res poll alert tonight for the Independent on Sunday.
286 - Is that the same Mrs T that Brown had round for tea at Downing Street and whose state funeral, it was rumoured, was being planned by the current government?
289 And the same Murdoch that bought the last three elections for Labour.
283 - Harry’s place is a weird mixture.
Some of the posters are just vile.
I myself used to have fun with a poster by the name of “Lenin” - HP’ers will know who he is
And of course they had our very own tim…….
290 - However, this particular school has a real mixed bag of former pupils, as I have highlighted above. Your broad brush “well he had to be a Tory” doesn’t fit with his family background or education (if we are going to go into sweeping generalisations).
291 (correction) through to me Jack Straw….
typo in there, I didn’t attend.
286 cont - there is no doubting that La Thatch did a great deal to make many partsof southern England much more prosperous. Anywhere that did not elect Tores though was basically abandoned, if not actively punished. I am not sure that is much which is great about that.
295 tim used to post there iirc
Evening all
On-topic, I rarely disagree with the venerable Jack W but I can’t see a way back for Labour.
Opinion tends to move through three phases:
1) I like this lot and I’m going to support them
2) I don’t like this lot but the other lot aren’t any better so I’m sticking with the devils I know.
3) I hate this lot so I’m voting for the other lot
We are clearly in phase 3 and have been since the sutumn of 2007. Phase 1 probably lasted until 2003 and phase 2 filled the gap.
In the Conservative years, I reckon phase 1 was 1979-87, phase 2 was 1987-93 and phase 3 was 1993-97.
I think Cameron’s phase 1 won’t last long but his phase 2 probably will.
293. You make my point so well. First Brown had her in to tea, then he said he was going to give her a state funeral, then he denied he’d planed any such thing, then he pretended he’d never really liked her anyway, etbleedingcetera.
Labour don’t know how to handle their conflicted and desperate feelings about La Thatch. It is truly Oedipal. Or perhaps, more properly, Electral.
The modern British left is Thatcher’s daughter.
281. reminds me of the strange but true story of the Japanese mystery writer who changed his name to that of his hero.
Edogawa Rampo…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edogawa_Rampo
296 - The son of a professional sportsman. Again, I could b wrong, but I would guess that most professional sportsmen are right of centre.
286 - IF Mrs Thatcher has to die - I sometimes wonder if God will have the guts to tap her on the shoulder
Barf.
I wonder if her son will be at liberty to make a speech.
302 Fantastic!
303 (cont) Son of a poor East End Lad….
You can twist it both ways, but your sweeping generalisation that he was obviously a Tory is nonsense. By his own admission he has never voted Tory before, but says he likes Cameron and what the Tories now stand for vs Labour.
note the push nature of the questions in the comres poll. they are worthless imho.
304 I’m thinking he won’t….
Your Equatorial Guinean correspondent.
301 - There is no doubt that she cast a huge shadow over the left and many people will be delighted when she pops her clogs. Such people sicken me - I don’t see how dancing on the grave of someone who has lived a full and long life and basically achieved most of what she wanted is anything other than completely ridiculous as well as totally unedifying. But the cloying tributes from old foes she will no doubt also garner will also be pretty hard to stomach. just like those that Tony benn now gets from the right when 20 years ago he was demonised.
re 300 good post Stodge.
Knowing how caring some of our more left leaning posters are I would have thought we would have heard more about this
“http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article6917040.ece”
Imagine if you will this story under a Conservative Government and the reaction from those very same posters.
299 - I did point that out
304. Thatcher kicked your lefty butt from here to Balagezong, all through your formative years, tim.
And oooooh, how you hate her for it. Still. Deep down, you hate her so much. Still. You actively want her to die. And yet… a tiny tiny bit of you licks her stiletto heel and feels a shameful pleasure. Doesn’t it?
Labour were the sub, Thatcher was the dom. And the left’s psychosexual Maggie-drama continues. Much to the entertainment of the rest of us.
new thread !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
New thread - poll news
306 - I did not say he was obviously a Tory, I said that it was no surprise he is a Tory. He “came out” a couple of years back:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-492252/Lampard-confirms-place-right-wing.html
274 - Philly, huh? I used to live near Philly!!
This mind meld stuff is geting weirder
Not all the posts on Harry’s Place are juvenile and depressing. Venichka fights the good fight and there are a number of other perceptive comments.
At one time I occasionally posted on HP, but gave up after a very long and tedious spat about Boris - before he was elected. Of course they did not predict the outcome of the Mayoral elections correctly as I did. Ha!
A lot of the Thatcher comments are of course very distasteful. It’s the pick and choose mentality of the ‘moral high ground’ that gets me. Criticising Brown’s handwriting is a sign of moral depravity. Dancing on the grave of Margaret Thatcher is just jolly japes.
81. Re Katie Price, I was amazed to learn of “her new book, Standing Out: My Look, My Style, My Life.”
She has forgotten “My T1ts” in there, surely?
119.John R. What’s amazing about that book is that Jordan actually won some award for it even tho’ it was ghost written!
On topic, very good article Jack. There’s still time between now and May for events to intercede. I doubt that they will but it’s why I’ve been buying on the Cameron Next PM rather than Con overall majority.
On a similar theme, a perversity has opened up in the Betfair markets (not unknown given the small amounts usually on offer on the politics pages). Cameron has been backed right down to 1.30 as Next PM but you can still get 1.32 for Brown/Cameron as party leaders on GE day. That implies the chances of Cameron becoming PM before the election are greater than Brown stepping down!
Tories 14 pts ahead in Yougov and Comres - Brilliant