Labour move to highest ICM share since April
November 16th, 2009
CON 42%(42)
LAB 29%(25)
LD 19%(21)
OTHERS 10% (12)
[LAB/CON 69% (59.5)]
But they are still in the 20s with the Tories in the 40s
The latest survey in the longest standing polling series in the UK - ICM in the Guardian - has some good news for Mr. Brown following Labour’s by election success in Glasgow last Thursday. Although the Tories are on a standstill at 42 Labour sees a sharp move upwards of four points.
My guess is that the detailed data will show that the change has been largely down to Labour supporters being more certain about voting rather than that much switching between the parties - something that I suggested in a previous post might happen in the wake of Glasgow NE.
This will provide Brown Central with a very welcome tonic as we move into the final five months before the election campaign has to start. Movement is movement and this might just impede any last minute effort to find a different leader.
It doesn’t take much change from this and we are in hung parliament territory.
The other distinctive feature about the poll is the relatively low share for “others” - down at just 10 percent which is only 2 points above what happened at the 2005 general election.
Amongst the non-voting finding there was one which might cause Brown Central some concern. As Julian Glover writes: “Tellingly, voters are less afraid overall of a Conservative win than a Labour one. Asked to pick from a range of emotions they might feel when they wake up to hear the election result next year, 53% would be angry or disappointed at news of a Labour win. Only 36% would feel the same about a Tory victory.”
My guess is that the other poll that is expected within the next 24 hours - the MORI monitor - will also see a boost for Brown’s party. If that does indeed happen then we could see changes on the commons seat spread betting markets.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes Labour have won!!!!
1
1 - Wash your mouth out with soap and detergent
What fun! Politics was getting boring.
Still 20s & 40s with a 13 point lead, I think the Tories can live with that.
surely not
FPT: This poll does give Labour a brief glimmer of hope. Not for winning but for a hung parliament by virtue of that 4 point uptick (see Guardian article). That is outside the MoE so it should be noted. Queen’s Speech and PBR are the two set piece events before the post Christmas campaign begins in earnest. Can Labour get back a bit more support?
1/2 - You Cad and bounder, you came first and second!
The 5 more years of brown is probably the most potent electoral weapon ever gifted to an opposition. All cameron has got to do is make people think how they feel the next day if they woke up to find brown had been re-elected. As this poll shows, theyd feel pretty pissed off!!! Surely now, nick palmer and his collegues can see labour are finished, possibly for over a decade if they dont get rid of him. Im all for loyalty, but where that decision can only lead to certain death its time to act. Turkeys dont vote for christmas, except, it seems, if they are labour turkeys!!
I expect to see plenty of bilboards with the following:
vote yellow get brown
vote green get brown
Vote purple (UKIP) get brown
Labour’s highest share since April - equivalent to a drowning man being 5 miles from land instead of 10.
7 - I think the PBR will be a disaster for Labour, given how optomistic the PBR was last year, and the budget was earlier on this year.
The PBR, will be the time when Brown’s/Labour’s lemmings come home to roost
Anthony Wells on this ICM poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2347
8.a win win for Ave it?
Standing by for the S W Norfolk denouement. Having spoken with a few of the celebrities, I’m pretty sure that Truss will be endorsed by a wide margin.
Have a feeling that tomorrow’s EDP will lead with the headline “De-bagged”. The Turnips’ Commander in Chief, Sir Jeremy Bagge Bt will have done the Conservative Party two favours with his abortive campaign -
1. To accelerate the move to Open Primaries contrasting with Labour’s fixed lists.
2 To prove once and for all that Old Etonians don’t have all the influence in the Tory Party. I understand that the [murdered] King of Nepal was Sir Jeremy’s fag at the famous ‘Slough Comprehensive’.
Not good enough for Labour, and they surely know it.
If the sparkle from Glasgow North-East lasts for another five months, I’ll eat my hat. Labour are near-certain to drop in the polls again.
On a lighter note, however, polls like these do cement Brown’s position as Labour leader for the next election, which can only be a good thing for the Tories, who will be delighted that they have remained static at a healthy 42%.
And pass the anti-depressants in LibDem HQ… back below 20%?
Oh dear, Clegg.
PB GET TOGETHER IN THE CITY - THURSDAY 26th NOVEMBER 18.30
Hello,
I’ve discussed this with Mike Smithson, and he has approved the idea (and may possibly attend) , although I should emphasise that the (tbc) event is strictly unofficial -
I’ve had the idea for some time of proposing “after-work drinks” for London-based PBers, somewhere reasonably accessible - in this case Liverpool St/ City area. The plan is totally informal - No admission charge, come and go as you please. I have a provisional venue. If anyone’s interested, I have set up an email address for information, unofficialpbbeers@googlemail.com. Please email so that I can estimate numbers.
I don’t want to publicly advertise the venue, for fear of ending like a facebook kid with a wrecked parental home.
So, all Labour needs now is for one of its MPs in an uber-safe seat to step down or die every week, prompting a by-election, and they’re home and dry. Simples.
hahahahahha!
SNP + Plaid Cymru = 4% !!!!!!!!!!
Tremendous poll for us.
We only got 2.1% (1.5& + 0.6%) at the last UK GE in 2005.
14 - Bunnco, are you on hand to relay the result from Swaffham as it comes in?
Any England-only or Wales-only opinion polls going?
And a poll from N.I. would be great… are the UUP on course to overtake the DUP?
FPT
A few clear pointers from tonight’s ICM poll:
******* BETTING POST *******
1. Rod has so far been correct in forecasting that the Tory Lead would narrow, from around 15% to around 13% over recent weeks.
2. Ladbrokes’ odds on the Tories NOT achieving a 100+ overall seat majority have shortened from 2/3 to 4/9 over recent weeks.
3 One of Ladbrokes’ markets which has not moved as yet is their Tories:Scratch, Labour:+15%, LDs+22% handicapped market of the three major parties’ shares of the UK vote. Based on recent polls, Labour are now starting to look like clear favourites to win this handicap and represent real value at 1.75/1 imho.
14 - Re point 2, Not only was he his fag, when the Crown Prince came over to the UK, he lived with Sir Jeremy and his family, and Sir Jeremy was his guardian.
Then the Crown Prince later on shot dead the King, and lots of over people.
14, thanks, bunnco. You’re quite the correspondent for pb.com
This will put real stride back into the SNP activist and supporter base.
24 - calm down dear, it is only a poll.
24, it’s a single poll. If you’ve been at 4% regularly then that’s another matter, but people shouldn’t get over-excited about a single poll.
On radio news - Gordo offering to chair an international conference on Afghanistan. Another desperate ’saviour of the world’ stunt?
20. I expect them to close the gap but still be behind. If TUV take a big enough bite out of the DUP’s core vote then SF could well win the most votes at the election.
NI polls tend to be very unreliable as traditionally they underestimate support for SF and the DUP.
I think this is a good poll for the Tories,confortably in the 40’s and Labour still,despite the small bounce in the 20’s.
Lets be honest,for a government this is terrible polling,plus the next few months will have the car crash of the publIC fianances laid bare in the PBR.There is also the real certainty of another Brown Balls up somewhere.
Then again though,in the eyes of most of the MSM this will be seen as Cameron not yet “sealing the deal.” Is this possibly now the most annoying and irritating soundbite in Politics????
16 Steve - It’s a great idea, unfortunately I can’t make it on this occasion. Make it around 6.00pm and perhaps a few from out of town will be able to come too. But if it’s a success, maybe it could be repeated early in the New Year and then very close to GE day. Are you simply proposing a tenner per person behind the bar and buy your own food, if any?
G Brown’ - ” I do that thingy with my mouth then I frown like this”
I’ve heard stories that this poll has the same lead for the Tories that Labour had in November 1996.
Both with ICM, naturally.
Can anyone confirm?
27. Yes, yet another stunt…broken record ..etc.
24 - Bit previous Stuart.
Perhaps Salmond has learnt a lesson with Kerr that he should stop promoting religious extremists.
32 - Yes
Today’s scores are the same as Labour’s lead in the November 1996 Guardian/ICM poll, before the May 1997 election, which Tony Blair went on to win by just under 13 points. Support for both parties is lower than it was in 1996 and 1997, partly because Liberal Democrat support is now higher. The third party is up one at 19% in yesterday’s poll.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/16/cameron-closing-deal-icm-poll
27. Another pathetic attempt by Brown to be seen as the consumate world statesman,and another attempt to get his picture taken with Obama.
Why on earth would any of the nations involved in Afghanistan want this idiot to chair a conference on this.
It will probably go the same way as his “global grand bargain” or whatever it was called a few months ago,totally ignored by everyone!!
‘Labour move to highest ICM share since April’
No surprises about this increase. Labour’s portrayal of Brown as a wretched and battered figure under siege by the monstrous Sun wasn’t the worst tactic; however the feeling won’t last, and I suspect the current polls will be the final ones that reflect that particular curious piece of national mood swing. The trick now is for Labour to find ever more novel ways of evoking our pity from now until the General Election. Anonymous scandals about Brown release to The Sun and The Mail perhaps? But the papers may not be fooled into running them.
16 - Count me in, have sent an email. I never pass up the opportunity of meeting with fellow pbers…
Mike,
Anyone would think you were a Labour supporter salivating with excitement the way you have put the thread heading together, there’s more than 1thing for Lab to be concerned with in the non voting questions, there are 4 or 5. Stop being so bias!
21 One would have found similar minor shifts in the run up to May 1997. People have made their minds up wrt the current government.
O/T Peter Oborne’s programme seems rather a damp squib. British Jews are strong supporters of Israel, British Jews strongly support the Conservative Party, British Jewish Conservatives donate considerable sums to the Conservative Party, and the Pope is a Catholic.
38 - I love people who come to OGH’s website, and call him biased.
You could always leave, don’t forget your refund on the way out.
35. It’s a cunning plan - he’s hoping someone else will come up with a policy that sounds reasonable, which he can then steal, claiming that the tories are bereft of ideas.
He hasn’t yet figured out that internationally he’s regarded much the same as he is at home - sort of like a turd in the punch-bowl.
35 Equally Brown said lets save the World at the Copenhagen summit and true to jonah form the rest of the worlds leaders then said stuff the world. While he has this awesome power of doom he should start supporting Man utd and claiming his full support for the Devil and all his minions.
38 - Wayne, as you will be aware Mike is a punter. If he is salivating it is at the money making opportunities.
In terms of political history, not to mention sheer entertainment value, anything that keeps Brown in power long enough to lead his party into the GE is good news. Wouldn’t it be a shame to have to forever look back and say “I wonder how well Brown would have done had he led Labour into that election?”
Evening all! Here are the Labour over Conservative %-age ratios for polls since 12th September (Hope I got all of them in!):
Date Pollster Con % Lab % Lab% / Con%
16/11/09 ICM 42 29 69.04
14/11/09 ComRes 39 25 64.1
14/11/09 YouGov 41 27 65.85
09/11/09 Populus 39 29 74.36
06/11/09 ARS 38 24 63.16
05/11/09 YouGov 41 27 65.85
31/10/09 ICM 42 25 59.52
26/10/09 ComRes 40 27 67.5
23/10/09 YouGov 40 27 67.5
20/10/09 ARS 40 23 57.5
20/10/09 ICM 44 27 61.36
20/10/09 Mori 43 26 60.47
11/10/09 BPIX 43 29 67.44
11/10/09 Populus 40 30 75
10/10/09 ICM 45 26 57.78
09/10/09 YouGov 42 28 66.67 Non-Track
09/10/09 YouGov 44 27 61.36 Track
07/10/09 YouGov 43 29 67.44 Track
05/10/09 YouGov 40 27 67.5 Track
03/10/09 ComRes 40 28 70
01/10/09 YouGov 40 26 65 Track
28/09/09 YouGov 39 29 74.36 Track
27/09/09 BPIX 40 25 62.5
25/09/09 YouGov 40 24 60 Track
24/09/09 YouGov 38 25 65.79 Track
23/09/09 YouGov 38 28 73.68 Track
22/09/09 YouGov 39 27 69.23 Track
21/09/09 YouGov 39 30 76.92 Track
21/09/09 ICM 43 26 60.47
12/09/09 YouGov 41 27 65.85
39 - that’s news about the Pope.
Poll shows Cameron has survived the referendum fallout undented. Surely Labour would have anticipated some fall in Tory support - after all they did put such cast iron effort into it.
30/ 37. Thanks,
I’d not given any thought to a beer kitty - Turn up, buy a pint, buy Mike a pint if he’s there, buy a round if you’ve recently won big.
Apparently a councillor quit the Labour Group on South Ayrshire council today.
South Ayrshire is a minority Conservative administration.
Ayr, Carrik & Cumnock is a Tory looooong shot next year. (If PM Dave wins this then I’ll eat my tam o’shanter.)
No sign of Gabble yet.. It wont be long, nor for that matter Mr Crosby…
Labour will deflate back down to the mid 20’s by the end of the week.
38 Wayne - no one would accuse me of being a Labour supporter, but I see some encouraging signs for them in this and other recent polls (see my post at #21)
50 - nationwide shortage of smelling salts I believe……….
16/48 - Have sent you an email, dont worry my email address isn’t a p0rn spammer email address, it’s my tribute to This Is Spinal Tap.
Evening all
Not a lot to comment on from the monthly ICM survey. We remain roughly in the 40+ 30- 20- 10+ area that we have been in for two or three years - a few rogue surveys notwithstanding.
It’s clear minds are made up and I don’t think the final numbers will be very far from these which would perhaps symmetrically replace a 60+ Labour majority with a 60+ Conservative majority.
An excellent poll result for the Tories.
It rained on our town today which was good for the Tories.
Of course, both happenings are of equal value.
How in God’s name can NuLabour’s poll rating have gone up?
Are some members of the great British public happy to reward lying and incompetence? Obviously - Hilda and Tony B Liar were both re-elected.
39. British Jews also put loadsa money into the Labour party.
57 Not these days, I think.
45. Excluding party conferences and the blip after Cameron dumped the referendum pledge the range of supposrt seems to be;
Con 40-45% Lab 25-29% Con Lead 10-17%
This poll is actually in the middle of that range (though Labour are towards the top end)
“British Jews also put loadsa money into the Labour party.”
See, yer can’t trust ‘em……
56. Malcolm is good for the Tories!
57 Polly - would your “put” mean present or past tense?
57,62 snap!
25. Yes Auntie Marcia. You are quite right. As always.
I’m away to hide my light under a bushel.
Whatever happened to Mr Abrahams’donations to Labour?
Just done my latest youguv poll.
Can see Labour getting a further poll boost as you can guess what party I voted for!
Also asked questions on next Wales labour leader(I have plumped for Carwyn)and the referendum on extra law making powers.
61. GIN.
Only when he posts here.
65 - Well the CPS didn’t prosecute, and he was back in the Labour fold at the conference earlier on this year.
“Can see Labour getting a further poll boost as you can guess what party I voted for!”
Poll of one then, was it?
WRT the Labour candidate in South Hornchurch, I did enjoy this comment on the Mail website:-
“Whilst our passports no longer refer to us as subjects (now the less emotive ‘bearer’!) we still live in a ‘Kingdom’ controlled for the Royal Family by the Freemasons. Hitler may have been mad but he was not stupid! had he invaded Britain their fate would have been sealed! The highest proportion of freemasons in any organisation is in Whitehall (who draft the law) the judiciary (who enact the law) and the police (who enforce it!) Indeed a minor’ royal’ is the ‘chief mason.’
The occupants of the House of Commons are just window dressing to appease!
Mr White let his feelings get the better of him but one has to ask why we pay this family of millionaires £40,000,000 per annum whilst turning to the man on the street and tell him he has to work until he drops before he picks up the lowest pension in western europe.”
Choosing to express such opinions in South Hornchurch is a bit like walking down the Falls Road, singing “The Sash My Father Wore.”
I don’t want to turn into Polly-anna - but I do think this is good news for Cameron. He has come out with some tough positions during the conference on the economy and on Europe two weeks ago. Both were potentially damaging to the poll ratings. Toenails led the way in knowing assertions about the terrible risks Osborne was taking during conference. Then there was all the referendum derision. Now it seems clear that the public are broadly in support of Osborne’s proposals (see tonight’s BBC poll) and this ICM poll shows Cameron is seen as being a respected international statesman (despite or maybe because of the French outburst). OK Labour are beginning to shore up their core support on the back of lettergate and Glasgow NE. But to me the significant thing is how the Conservative vote is holding up, and how well positioned they now are in policy terms to fight the election.
66 - You voted Tory, like the rest of Wales and England?
49. Stuart Dickson.
Wells lists the Conservative candidate as William Grant. Whoever “P.M. Dave” is must be a minor party candidate.
61 GIN
When I was an Old Labour Councillor [read Socialist Councillor] my opposite number on the Finance Committe would often sat that I was good for the Tories; he reasoned that I reminded them why they were so right wing.
Not long after I left the council [Nu]Labour took control and the Tories were hounded out of office. So I guess that he was right in a funny sort of way.
60 David
“British Jews also put loadsa money into the Labour party.”
Ssssshhhhhh. URW might yet discover Betfair is a front for Labour Party fundraising.
57/62 Yes - ‘put’ should be in the past tense. But I’m pretty sure there are still some who are keeping the faith (erm with Labour that is!)
I expect to see plenty of bilboards with the following:
vote yellow get brown
vote green get brown
Vote purple (UKIP) get brown
by ryans November 16th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
You have seen it as well !!!!,and how about this.
The Lib Dems have said they would not join with the Conservative Party in a hung government, so they are saying “vote Lib Dem and given a hung government we will give you 5 more years of
Gordon Brown”.
Is that what you and the country want?
Then there is only one answer to making sure we do not return
Gordon Brown.
vote Conservative
66 watford!
From the Wells article on this poll:
Personally I think there is also something of a reversion to the mean here after some outliers – as I’ve said a couple of times in recent weeks, there was no obvious methodological reason for the great big gap between Populus showing a 10 point Tory lead and ICM showing a 17 point lead, suggesting that all along the real figure was somewhere inbetween.
Also:
42% of people would be pleased or excited if David Cameron won the next election, with 36% either angry or disappointed. The figures for Gordon Brown were 27% pleased/excited and 53% angry or disappointed.
Lib Dems take note.
Truss survives.
81 - Thank heavens for that.
81.LTL, excellent news!
81 By how much?
81, close or large margin?
Alos Sky has a story abut a laptop going missing fromSt Alban’s council offices. It has the detsils of 14000 postal vote applications, signatures and all.
81 LTL
Norfolk Turkeys Trussed for Christmas.
As tim would say “Trussed in me”.
85 - Huge margin apparantly.
Sky doesn’t give a margin, but they dd say the deputy leader of the committee read out a letter at the start of the meeting. I’m glad she has survived I just hope they all rally round her now.
A good poll for Labour. Much more in line with what I expected than the earlier polls.
I hope it is just a blip, and those Labour certainty to vote figures go right back down after lettergate is forgotten.
86 - grr laptop.. I said last time I wouldn’t use it again.
86. 14,000? All from one constituency? Seems a lot.
This modern obsession with technology does seem to cause a lot of problems, can’t imagine anyone walking off with a filing cabinet stuffed up their jumper.
Excellent news . Bagge debagged, and rightly so, irrespective of CCHQ issues.
52 - You’re too wedded to your “Hung Parliament” bet PfP. The reality IMO is that these “mini-recoveries” are meaningless whilst Labour remain well in core vote territory - and whilst their rises and falls remain detached from the Tory share.
This indicates that the movements are outside the key demographics that will seriously influence the choosing of the next Govt of the country, and is merely confined to those who establish the size of the Labour defeat.
Remember the days of the Tories and their “box”?
OT, Any odds up for Banff and Buchan? Just heard a rumour that the Tory candidate (coincidentally named Buchan) is a decent outside bet
92 b. the Sky ticker still says 14k t does seem a lot.
73 Labour! Don’t care if I’m the last one standing and have to turn out the lights.
79 Cardiff!
And don’t forget that if ever there was a General Election which could see the Opposition putting on several extra pts on their lead, I think 2010 could be it.
Truss survived the vote by 132 votes to 37 according to Tim Montgomorie
99 good news for her.
99 - Good on the Swaffham Conservative Association. Could Cameron have had a better result?
99, strong result.
97 good win for you on sat - unusual to see a home win at that stadium
96. Hmm. 14,000 applications. From how many addresses is the next obvious question. They probably won’t tell us though.
Good on her, good for Cameron, good for the Conservative Party.
The last thing we needed was a bunch of the oldies judging people on the basis of an affair that had been public knowledge for years.
Swaffham have spared Cameron a day’s torrid analysis in tomorrow’s papers.
God, I love Realpolitik.
101 A sensible decision.
Sir Jeremy really did make a fool of himself.
So Sky have to backtrack after a day of hype about Cameron’s problems. They do not have the grace to say it was a landslide after predicting a close run thing about an hour ago.Bunnco poster of the year.
NEW THREAD
14000 postal votes is not all that many, considering we are talking about a three-way marginal, where presumably all the parties are well organised.
Perhaps not Labour though. Just Conservatives and Lib Dems.
Been listening to Rudd’s apology for the Oz ‘orphan’ scheme.
I’m very impressed - his language took no prisoners or hedged the situation. I really believed him.
Why is Gordon doing our end of it in the New Year????
The Beeb earlier were describing this appalling act as ‘in the middle of the last century’ - it only stopped in the 70s!!!! I was still at primary school then.
106. “So Sky have to backtrack after a day of hype about Cameron’s problems. They do not have the grace to say it was a landslide after predicting a close run thing about an hour ago.”
National media (tv or newspapers) in the majority of the cases don’t have a clue regarding internal party selections (Con or Labour or whatever) and when they try and cover it, they often ridicule themself making some bizarre pieces
So Norfolk SW decides to stay with the little Hussie!
Fact that such a rotten poll is actaully GOOD news for the (barely) governing party is testimony to shocking situation it now finds itself in Year 12.
Real question is not, will Labour lose the next general election. But rather, by how much? Will it be a wipeout, anti-1997? Or instead a soft (or at least softer) landing?
What latest polling trend shows (along perhaps with Glasgow NE by-election result) is that a soft landing is POSSIBLE in 2010. Not certain, or even probable. But within bounds of the possible.
Why? Because numbers (in polls) indicate that while the Labour base has been dented, and what remains is hardly ecstatic, there’s enough there there to buoy up the Labour hulk. Thus limiting the Tory romp and furnishing a sizeable Labour opposition rump in the next parliament.
PROVIDED that Labour’s diehards turn out to vote. Which is where Glasgow SE bolsters the argument that enough will do just that, to soften Labour’s landing.
BUT what SeanT (I think) said prev thred re: certain percentage of Labour voters being disappointed if Labour won next GE does make (some) sense.
Or rather, goodly share of Labour voters will NOT be upset if David Cameron is next Prime Ministers, with a small but workable Conservative majority.
Thing is, looks like they’re more likley to achieve this IF they vote Labour, than IF they they defect or abtain.
95.ScottP, the Tory candidate is Jimmy Buchan, star of the BBC series ‘Trawlerman’. And remember that Alex Salmond is standing down in that seat.
With labour gaining ground does the 7/4 handicap betting on Labour +15 look a good bet? I think so.
Still disappointing for Labour. They need to hit 30%+ now and they still can’t manage it after Glasgow NE.
95/114. With the loss of Alex Salmond’s personal vote, the SNP majority might slip, but it’s so huge there’s no real prospect of them losing that seat. As for the Tory candidate having been in Trawlermen, if celebrity was such a decisive factor, John Smeaton and Mikey Hughes would have done rather better last Thursday!
I must admit, in spite of Marcia’s words of caution, I share Stuart’s relief that the SNP and Plaid Cymru are polling at 4%. The SNP are bound to be watching the early post-Glasgow NE polls to see if they take a hit - so far, so good.
I know what has been put about about Clegg and Cameron being unlikely to do a deal in the event of a hung Parliament but I’m not sure that “under no circs would we talk to anyone” ….. which is what Cameron would be saying ….. would go down all that well in TV interviews. Especially if it was qualified by ….. “except the Ulster Unionists”.
AFAIK I don’t think Clegg’s ruled anything in or out!