The “Super Six Predictions” part 3
November 25th, 2009
This is the third and final part of the general election constituency bets by half a dozen regulars who call themselves, with appropriate modesty, The PB Super Six.
Thanks to Peter the Punter and ScottP for getting this together.
The one I like is Norwich South where the incumbent is Charles Clarke - the former home secretary and long-standing Gordon Brown critic. Look how we have four separate views of the outcome.
This is the Norwich South 2005 notional result from the Rallings and Thrasher “official list” - Lab 15,275 (37.40%); LD 12,252 (30.00%); C 8,917 (21.83%); Green 3,032 (7.42%); Others 770 (1.89%); UKIP 596 (1.46%)
There’s also Aberdeen South where there are bets on three parties. There are no boundary changes in Scotland and this was the 2005 result. Begg (Lab) 15,272 (36.69%); Harris (LD) 13,924 (33.45%); Whyte (C) 7,134 (17.14%); Watt (SNP) 4,120 (9.90%); Reekie (Green) 768 (1.85%); Munro (SSP) 403 (0.97%).
Mike Smithson
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486.The BBC 10 o’clock news was a disaster for Cameron.
Tories got their facts wrong, admitted as much and have now gone to ground.
Utterly disgraceful behaviour by the smearing tories and their apologists on this site. Shame.
Cameron = McBride
Darn
Blackburn going Tory?
Much as I would like to see it, that’s pure fantasy.
1. Are you sure?
2 - I thought women loved it, when they didn’t come first?
Newsnight also ripping Cameron apart.
1,gabble = mcBride,now thats more like it.
What exactly is it that DC got wrong?
2 - Reply is on previous thread.
“The BBC 10 o’clock news was a disaster for Cameron.”
Gabble is on fire this evening
Interestingly, neither Robinson nor anyone else articulated just what the Conservatives are supposed to have got wrong. I am sorry but I do not believe that Hizb ut-Tahrir should be allowed to have any involvement in schools, publicly funded or not.
Toenails his usual partial self.
Interesting to see Watford, IIRC it’s the most heavily bet on constituency?
I posted this half joking.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/25/which-way-is-mori-going-to-go-next/#comment-1323055
And it seems to be true.
Gove and Cameron sink to sub Grayling levels of stupidity.
5 Annoyingly I believe they can sometimes manage first, third, fourth, fifth…
14 - Only when I’m using the blue pill.
I’m not betting on the GE this far out due to liquidity issues, but if I was going to I’d bet on West Lancs and Wallasey both going Tory. There is a council by election in Wallasey tomorow that could be interesting.
FPT- 494- I’m sorry, but you’re the one changing the subject, Socrates. I’ve offered an explanation for the outrageous behavior that ties it to the obvious motives of money, advancement, and prestige. My assertions, which you find so outlandish and which pre-date this shameful episode, are in no way discredited by the scandal but rather are substantiated by it. You, on the other hand, seem to have no idea why they would have done such a thing. So who between us has a better theory to offer?
Isn’t the predictions list rather pointless without knowing what odds the bets were put on at?
Turn on Newsnight.
There’s a tory going bonkers
Some Tory on newsnight sounding like Nick Griffin.
Which Tory?
It is worth noting that Gordon’s letter to Cameron doesn’t address the main point of the argument: that the foundation which runs the schools is a front for, or is associated with, Hizb.
tim must be listening to a different programme.
After saying he made a boob on the superficial facts but exposed a real issue.
[Though the guy on now is reaaly bad].
3. AIUI, these aren’t necessarily predictions, but a record of what the individual punters have bet on. Presumably the odds for Tory wins in Cambridge and Blackburn must be pretty long!
19/20- I turned off my favourite film to check that, then realised that I’ve lost BBC two due to the irritating digital switch over. Now I’m going to have to reload Gettysburg and skip to the scene on Little Round Top. Damn you Tim!
Reminds me of The Thick of It, that performance…
Paul Goodman.
Only person going bonkers on Newsnight is Balls
Paul Goodbye. He’s hyperventilating.
15 As a former gf of mine used to say “there’s more than one way to skin a cat”. (Apologies to Plato and Ave It)
Hmm, apparently Paul Goodman went to York. I feel I should defend him out of solidarity, but I can’t be arsed to go and watch Newsnight.
I assume the “Stockton” is “Stockton South”, either that or they are wildly optimistic about tory prospects?
He’s going anyway.
Tonight he’s the patsy.
its not quite as Gabble was saying, The head teacher had been writing articles for the Islamic group, and refused to answer questions about her links.
Ed Balls starts smug and than falls on his nose.
Though I accept our chap sounds like a loony.
And the Gov look dodgy.
28. Tory spokesman has calmed down abit - but he is in need on some counselling.
ed balls very poor.
I live in a solid Labour seat bordering Wallasey. It’s not going Tory, lol.
31 - Dont worry, he’s standing down at the election.
33. Quite. The mad eyed Tory got out a stream of links which sounded really bad and Balls didn’t manage to rebut.
Can I just advise anyone voting in Aberdeen South to bear in mind the current financial crisis, which seems to be bringing further bad news by the day. Latest from the P&J this week.
Concern over teaching jobs targeted in city cutbacks
‘Fears that latest local authority plans will have devastating effect’
Also in the P&J, this in Moray - Council plans end to free milk in schools
And I kid you not, in the article we even have Mrs Thatcher being brought into the row.
“Labour Party chiefs last night attacked the proposals as a return to the “Thatcher, Thatcher Milk Snatcher” era when Sir Edward Heath’s education secretary Margaret Thatcher ended universal free school milk.”
This will be of interest to those watching Perthshire politics.
P&J - Perth celebrates as council dumps plan for incinerator
37- you live in Birkenhead then, lol, bad luck. I’m not certain that it will, but we have an excellent PPC there and I have every reason to feel that they will achieve a much better swing than the national average, helped by the useless Labour MP. It is definately takeable.
40.Sorry, that should be betting not voting.
38. That’s a relief. Thought I’d have to add him to the Harriet Harman and Peter Hitchens list.
Incidentally, looking him up on wikipedia led me to the fun discovery that Lord Kenneth Clark used to be Chancellor of the University of York.
Words of advice for David Cameron and Michael Gove.
This is an anti extremism fund.
http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/preventingextremism/pathfinderfund/
This is a nursery funding scheme.
http://younglondonmatters.org/ecminlondon/pathfinder_pilot_initiatives/partner/91/34yearoldpathfinders/
This is MI5
https://www.mi5.gov.uk/
And this is a childrens TV programme.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cbbc/mihigh/
at least goodman turned ed balls smugness to ‘oh shit,I fu*ked up in that interview’
Where’s Gove?
Where’s Cameron?
Smear and hide seems to be the new tory tactic.
The Newsnight debate redux
Paxo. “Why did you give taxpayers money to extremists”
Balls. “It wasn’t the money Cameron said it was”
Paxo. “The viewers will form their own opinion”
Quite.
Newsnight = tory debacle. Goodman gabbling, Balls in control. Oh dear, it was all looking rosy at lunchtime.
Damn… I go away for a couple of hours and everything starts going off.
The Balls/Goodman Newsnight interview definitely sounds like one to catch up on later.
The substantive fact of funding to the schools was wrong - but the substantive issue of the links throught the HT and the funds paid to the dodgy front organisation still remain.Gove should have definitely come on Newsnight this evening - bad mistake Michael.
However this whole issue of education and Islamic extremism and separation from the mainsteam culture will run and run.
BTW what a rude and arogant bullying man is Balls.
re 43 the “Lord Kenneth Clark” - he used to be the younger son of a Duke or Marquess, did he?
46,very poor by balls on newsnight gabble
Hysterical Labour herd are foaming tonight.
Shall we vote on who did worse on Newsnight?
The frothy fella who looked like an amateur or the professional who looked shifty and in charge of giving money to teach kids to hate us.
Ed Balls could have had that in the back on the net but he slipped on the penalty spot. Though to be fair, quite a lot of the facts weren’t on his side.
49 - Indeed, just reinstalling my computer then iPlayer here I come. Also interested to watch the piece about the new nuclear power plants.. something that has to be done, pronto.
49 - It is.
I’m going to bed, depressed at the level of stupidity Cameron and Gove have achieved today.
Warsi for Tory Leader.
47
Haven’t seen newsnight, but that’s exactly the strawman tim introduced on the previous thread. Can be summed thus:
”We gave them nuts money, but not that money.”
Ok.
British policing has ‘lost its way’, says top officer
British policing has “lost its way” amid the “noise and clutter” of Government targets, initiatives and new laws, the chief of inspector of police has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6655753/British-policing-has-lost-its-way-says-top-officer.html
FPT - Gwynfa - I’m not saying it needs to come before but it must come. Galileo came up against a lot of vested interests as regards his being wrong, trial for heresy followed. We know he was right but until this rightness was believed and understood it counted for little.
Maybe there can be cases where the ground is prepared before the science follows, string theory is hardly proved but it seems to have gained a fair degree of public acceptance for example.
I used to be a local councillor in one of the seats held by Labour in the Super Six list.
That seat will be very good for the Tories. The Labour voters will stay at home because they do not wish to cast a vote for NuLabour and the other parties are far from likely to look after them.
The big group next time around will be the dis-enfranchised. They hate the Tories with a passion, and are good people who will not touch the BNP with the proverbial. Clegg is Cameron-Lite and NuLabour are seen as traitors to the working class. Oh to be in Scotland, Wales or Tibet, even.
With the electorate disgusted with the awful career politicians of all parties, there is no doubt that the ‘Plague on all your Parties’ non-candidates will win with big majorities, God bless ‘em.
53 - Indeed Labour herds can be quite amusing. The best thing ever a Labour herd did was when 313 of them all backed Gordon Brown as leader, and ensured that there would be no leadership contest.
Effing Genius.
FPT 490 tim - Actually the Conservative leadership is remarkably vigorous on promoting measures to combat climate change. Views within the party are surprisingly mixed, but until the latest revelations their has been a general acceptance that reducing emissions should be a priority but not a religion.
Clearly in the light of the new revelations any sensible person would want the scientific evidence to be reviewed before the world embarks on spending trillions of dollars and causing massive disruption, especially to developing countries. Clearly also the East Anglian group and some of the others involved have now lost all credibility. Professor Phil Jones should resign or be sacked. Their input to the debate should now be disregarded; it is simply not science if it is not open or if it is tainted by ulterior motive or concealment of evidence.
Whether that means the whole question has to be reopened I don’t know - it depends on what other evidence there is from untainted independent groups, and I don’t know enough about that to comment. However, the principles are clear: science has to be open, transparent, and reproducible, and it has to make testable predictions.
If those criteria are not unambiguously met in the existing body of work excluding that of East Anglia’s and the other tainted individuals, then measures to combat climate change, unless they are very cheap or are beneficial for other reasons, should be put on hold for a few months whilst the evidence is reviewed. All data, algorithms, and software used for models should be published in full for proper peer review.
In that review, any scientists or groups who are not prepared to publish the raw data and the full details of their models should be ignored, as secrecy is (by definition) not scientific.
It is interesting that Lord Lawson, of all people, looks the most likely to take this forward in a calm and sensible way.
Of course the timing is unfortunate, with Copenhagen so close; but no doubt that will produce a fudge so it probably doesn’t matter too much.
45,52. not in the version I saw. I am afraid the take home message I am getting is that even islamicist nutcases love and cherish their 3-4 year old children and a good thing too. It is actually jolly difficult inculcating islamo-fascism into that age group.
Just got back in. Hold on, so Labour are going mental cos Tory got a small part of the allegation wrong, as trailed by the Bunker earlier this evening.
Has there now been a solid rebuttal of the questions raised in the two Telegraph piece a month ago or not, i.e that public money was given to schools run at the time by people with connection to an extremist Muslim organisation?
That was the crux of the issue, the rest, well it is classic Ali Campbell tactic, you got one fact wrong therefore you are wrong on the wider issue.
BBC News: Paul Goodman smashes Labour’s attempt to get off on a technicality.
37. Jamie
Do you mean you live in Birkenhead?
And do you realise that Wallasay has seen the biggest swing to the Conservatives IIRC of any constituency in the country from 2005 and were nearly 25% ahead of Labour at the 2008 local elections, winning 5 out of 6 wards?
I’m not saying that the Conservatives will win Wallasay but the 7/2 you can get on them is better value than you can get on many other seats.
goodman has just been on news 24,much better interview.
17. So please explain why scientists in China and Russia are coming up with falsified theories, when the governments (and entire political establishment) are strongly pro-industry in both countries?
I think the motives of the people involved in these emails are quite clear. They have developed an extreme dislike to some of their critics, for reasons justified or otherwise, and they allowed their base human impulses of excluding those we dislike to cause them to do unethical things.
Non question the Tories have made errors on the facts such as the name of the fund [ie the funding has an almost indentical name to something else etc].
But the underlying facts basic facts are more of an issue and may or may not get lost.
One of Ed’s gaffes was to say we don’t ban people from teaching because of what they believe, even the BNP - though we are trying. lol
It has been my experience that most young children are natural fascists, of one sort or another.
Philip Blond has an appalling haircut.
Has to be said.
I’ve not paid any attention to this Islamic schools story, so in that respect I’m like 95% of the population.
What it sounds like to someone who hasn’t heard any details though is ‘Labour gives taxpayers money to schools run by Islamic extremists’.
And for all tim and Gabble’s huffing and puffing on here that isn’t going to do Labour any good.
56 ‘I’m going to bed, depressed at the level of stupidity Cameron and Gove have achieved today.’
TIMBOT, it’s a miracle that you ever get out of bed, given the levels of stupidity reached by Brown and Co. Or do you not get depressed when the government make mistakes?
71 fr
After a lifetime of working with young kids, you are talking a right load of old b*llocks.
On topic..
I got myself some of Victor Chandler’s lovely 16-1 action on the Greens for Norwich South as suggested by someone here, perhaps PtP.
75
Malcolm, for once I agree with you.
Politics = showbiz for ugly people with funny voices.
71 another richard
That is exactly the story.
There is a highly amusing process substory about how the government has two different schemes called “pathfinder”: one for nursery kids, one for engaging moderate Islamic communities - which the Conservatives seem to have confused - but it doesn’t detract in any way from the main story.
“I’m going to bed, depressed at the level of stupidity Cameron and Gove have achieved today.”
Oh really ? After behaving like a 9 year-old on a sugar rush after eating too many red smarties.
PBers inputs showing Tory majority of 75… but only via some wholly implausible “results”, such as >20% swings in Halifax, Sheffield Brightside and Sheffield South East.
http://tinyurl.com/4p3mwq
bit like the “Super Six” projections, which as far as I can see predict the Tories winning “everything.”
The Tory bias here is frankly ridiculous.
Holy f*ck.
The lefties are going MENTAL tonight. Looks like DC touched a raw nerve.
Labour and the Tories are both trying to row back on immigration / multiculturalism right now: last week it was Brown, today it’s Cameron.
One can only presume they see value in appearing tough on this issue right now, as opposed to say last month, last year, or the last decade.
By breaking their silence, they must reckon there’s now more to be gained from appealing to UKIP/BNP voters than there’s to be lost to sensitive open-door types who’d leave for the Lib Dems.
71. Especially if you see the Newsnight clip of the headmistress
“Have you ever been a member of HT?”
“I will not answer that question”
Spin away chaps
I thought tory bloke was pretty good, not many get away with talking over paxo
Was Ed Balls his usual charming self on Newsnight tonight?
Maybe that is the strategy from the Conservative leadership, getting Balls on TV as much as possible.
81
Rod, you should have “adjusted” it all so that your results showed a hung Parliament
84 -
“Did you beat your wife”
“No comment”
80 Hopefully the TIMBOT’s so wound up, he’ll have a really terrible nights sleep and be even more irritable tomorrow.
84. Number change, was directed to another richard now at 73
85 You don’t thinked he looked a touch….mad?
82 Indeed Martin. When Gabble is first out of the trap, and the others bots are squawking you know something’s up!
59. I will have to admit defeat. I still don’t really understand what you are trying to say.
“Maybe there can be cases where the ground is prepared before the science follows, string theory is hardly proved but it seems to have gained a fair degree of public acceptance for example.”
This is not true. Try Lee Smolin’s (Perimeter Institute) book “The Trouble with Physics” Or Peter Woits “Not Even Wrong”.
There are prominent academic physicists who believe that string theory is a fundamentally flawed program. So it is not even accepted by the academic community — let alone the public.
There is no experiment — even with the most hypothetical high energy accelerator beyond the bounds of what we could ever hope to build — that could provide an experimental test of string theory.
I do find it a bit worrying that the Telegraph, the Centre for Social Cohesion, and the Conservatives all missed the ‘Pathfinder’ confusion. Shows a bit of a lack of attention to detail!
That said, I missed the fact that there were two schemes with the same name when I first read Ed Balls’ letter too - but then I am not particularly familiar with any of these schemes.
64,this from iain dale has posted about balls on newsnight.
Ed Balls has open goal on Newsnight - and shoots over the crossbar. Wonder if i will do the same in a few minutes! 22 minutes ago
79.”There is a highly amusing process substory about how the government has two different schemes called “pathfinder”: one for nursery kids, one for engaging moderate Islamic communities - which the Conservatives seem to have confused - but it doesn’t detract in any way from the main story.”
You are kidding? Is this why the Thick of It has also got a Pathfinder policy as well, do the government have a bunch of macho buzz words that they like to name their policies after?
93. Does that mean you’re in the “loop quantum gravity” camp?
Top story Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230993/Brown-accused-suffocating-Iraq-inquiry-blocking-incriminating-evidence.html
98 - Which actually is a bigger story and been over shadowed, Clegg for once had the leak for PMQ’s.
96 ChristinaD
Yes, on the previous thread, when tim pointed out the two different Pathfinder schemes, that was my first thought too. “Pathfinder”? What a terrible management-speak word.
I mentioned there that maybe we should regard Hizb-ut-Tahrir as a 4th sector organization
100 Week after week, The Thick of It hits the spot with bang up to date contemporay humour.
Front pages.
Fairly bad for Labour all round but the Daily Express headline reveals why the Bots are panicked tonight.
http://tinyurl.com/yft7z2k
100.wibbler, indeed. But for the government to have two different Pathfinder schemes is ludicrous. Sorry, not surprised at the subsequent confusion, this is simple stupid management from the government.
Now tim’s safely tucked up and been kissed by his mummy I can admit that I wasn’t quite happy with my analogy of a 9 year-old with sugar rush. I’ve been racking my brain trying to remember what his hysterical performance tonight reminded me of. Now it has come to me: Kevin Keegan’s rant against Ferguson, clutching at straws, after blowing a 12 point lead.
On topic: I agree with Mike that Norwich South is one of the most interesting; it could go any of three ways (Lab/LD/Con), or even conceivably Green. I bet on the Conservatives at fairly long odds (9/2) on the basis that the LibDems and the Greens might both take votes off Labour fairly evenly, leaving a chance for the Conservatives to come through the middle. Clearly, though, it’s a bit of a long shot.
Sleaford & N. Hykeham should be rock-solid Tory, but the bookies had set the odds on the basis that Douglas ‘Moat’ Hogg would be badly punished; those odds have now changed following his standing down, and it’s no longer value.
Totnes is similar in some ways; I bet on the Conservatives at 4/7 on the basis that the Open Primary went very well and should help the candidate’s chances there. The best odds now are Victor Chandler’s 2/5, which is not very attractive.
Ladbrokes’ 4/6 on Conservatives to win York Outer is still good value IMO.
There’s no value left in Con to win Wells (now 1/5, it was 1/2 earlier).
As for Watford: I hedged on this, which is why my position is shown in the total as neutral. Could go either way (LD/Tory).
101. And this weeks episode is about a leadership coup.
103 I’d be surprised if they only has two.
93 - But there are also many who think the opposite on string theory, if you ask a group of vaguely interested people if they believed it I would imagine you’d get fair support. As you rightly say, that’s without any vague expectation of proof. Belief is not necessarily linked to proof.
The Galileo point is also to show that scientific proof is not enough to make people believe you.
It’s disappointing that it appears impossible to get past the rehearsed arguments. It’s what frustates me most about the climate change debate and I usually steer clear but, just once, I thought it worthwhile to try and take a different tack on it.
I hope that soon, people on both sides are in a better place to listen. At the moment it isn’t happening and that saddens me.
102
and you may not buy the Express, but you will see it on the newsstands…
102 SimonStClare
Most important story is the FT headline, if even remotely true: Dubai might be about to default on its debt.
107.Oh I am looking forward to this week’s episode.
111.I have just seen that headline in the FT, what on earth is going on in Dubai, how has it got to this stage?
108 …’have two’.
I bet this story would have got lost without the cock up. Question is - who the cock up will hurt most.
105. As I recall the local elections proved a decent predictor of Norwich N. Apparently the results in the wards for south were -
Green 9558
LD 6181
Con 5734
Lab 5185
UKIP 437.
Which certainly makes this an intriguing seat; difficult to believe Labour could drop to 4th though
Aberdeen South is a really interesting one which really could go any of four ways.
1) Lib Dems Hold the Scottish Parliament seat, but Lib Dem SNP council is unpopular and if they were going to take the seat they should have done it in 2005
2) SNP came a fairly good second in Scottish Parliament in 2007 and do well in seats roundabout and council, but see above. Also no history of success at Westminster in this seat or its predecessors
3) Conservatives held seat (1918-1966 and 1970-1987 and 1992-1997 on similar boundaries), but their vote has collapsed in recent years and my understanding is the local organisation is not that strong and West Aberdeen and Kincardine is seen as a better target. Also the Conservatives were in coalition with Lib Dems on the council until 2007 and could be blamed for some of the current mess.
4) Labour have done reasonably well here in the past, but have virtually collapsed north of the Tay in recent elections.
I expect a very close result with the winner possibly polling as little as 30%. A Labour hold is possible as the seat has gone against the grain in the past (Particularly 1992, but as mentioned the Lib Dems really should have won in 2005
113. Dubai have been spending like Abu Dhabi and Qatar but unlike those two countries it doesn’t actually have any oil or gas…
113 - The stories here
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46b4065c-d9f7-11de-b2d5-00144feabdc0.html
108.SallyC, you may be right. I think that someone should look into that, the fact that the The Thick of It has gone big on a Pathfinder policy is too much of a coincidence. Someone obviously knows of this government’s obsession with that name. To me its a big beast of car popular in rural area’s like the one I live in.
@109:
String Theory is not science. It’s not made a single falsifiable prediction in over twenty years of funding.
It’s now becoming clear that String Theory has only ever been a scam, an academic ploy to disguise Aristotelian empiricism behind a facade of scientific respectability, to extort tenure from slightly dim heads of department.
111 – Wibbler, I caught the FT’s headline and immediately thought ‘not again’ can’t find anything on the net to substantiate the by-line however.
108. Pathfinder is just the word they use now instead of “pilot”. There are many many pathfinders across Government - loads just within the DCSF…
113. The simple answer re. Dubai is - wild excesses of property speculation and the growth and collapse of a massive bubble.
Re. Balls the really damning moment was when he apparently seemed to suggest it was OK for Hizb ut tahrir people to take senior positions in schools. That simply won’t wash with the public.
123 - I really dont want Ed Balls to lose his seat. Can you imagine the damage he can do (to Labour) as Leader of the Opposition?
102. I am all for morale maintenance but I can assure you, the Newsnight situation has developed not necessarily to our advantage this evening. I think Balls must be feeling deeply relieved tonight.
122 sam
That is true. It’s still a pretty big mistake by the Tories though.
They are lucky because it is a Westminster village story - but they should be more careful. In particular, Michael Gove should have known about the nursery pathfinder scheme because it falls squarely within his remit.
126. The details don’t really matter.
120 - Heigh Ho. Same argument again but here we go…
String Theory may be seen to have some analogy with human created climate change in at least one regard, it also has a number of believers in it as well as a number of those who dismiss it as being unproved.
What it doesn’t have I believe is the same sort of political battleground being fought over it, so the argument is mostly among physicists. They don’t have to then change the mind of politicians spending billions on responding to it being possibly true.
126. I agree - someone in CCHQ is going to get a serious bollocking tomorrow (if they haven’t already)…
As you say this one won’t really matter but eventually a mistake like that will cause them serious trouble
(in this case it’s also to their advantage that Balls is such a complete pillock)
125. Hmm. The process story is bad for the Tories. If Balls succeeds in making that THE story, then you’re right.
If however, the “government funded extremists” story runs at all, the process story will be buried.
116.Couple of pointers.
The Tories were in coalition with the Libdems for a term, but then so were Labour before them, and the SNP now. The big story is that the Libdems have dominated local politics for years in Aberdeen, and they should have taken Aberdeen South back in 2005. But they didn’t and its all gone pair shaped since then.
Another factor out with the absolutely tragic state of the council finances is the Oil & Gas industry. There has been job losses and huge uncertainty in this sector for a while now, not helped by the continued instability over taxation from Westminster, and with Holyrood vying for more controls. Ann Begg has a personal following, but her government is not popular at all. The local Conservative organisation was previously not very strong, but Mark Jones seems to be doing a great job as their PPC. I know because I have been following his progress.
I have had this seat pegged as one to watch for quite a while now. I fully expect it to become a four way marginal with the Labour and Libdem votes falling back and being picked up by both the SNP and the Tories. I can see Ann Begg holding on, but equally I can another party leap frogging the Libdems and snatching a gain. It should also be remembered that this seat has a very mobile population due to the Oil&Gas industry.
131.Urghh. Pear not pair!!
131.I should have added that a recent survey of firms based in Aberdeen, but reliant on the global Oil&Gas industry showed that confidence was returning while the North Sea sector remained fragile.
69
“So please explain why scientists in China and Russia are coming up with falsified theories, when the governments (and entire political establishment) are strongly pro-industry in both countries?”
Socrates, they are not. The Russian scientific community is pretty scathing of western climate science.
This is the view for example of Yury Izrael, Director, Global Climate and Ecology Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences and IPCC Vice President:
“As I see it, this problem is overshadowed by many fallacies and misconceptions that often form the basis for important political decisions. G8 leaders should pay attention to them.
There is no proven link between human activity and global warming.”
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20050623/40748412.html
In January Russian scientists writing in Pravda claimed we are nearing the end of the Holocene interglacial and will shortly enter another glacial period. I don’t actually agree that you can claim that with any great certainty but they are certainly not worrying about AGW.
Isn’t it nice when you don’t have Billingham and Maguire on the Sky paper review?
81. RodC
How do you actually see what all the predictions are?
And have people actually predicted Conservative gains in Huddersfield and Birmingham Perry Barr? If they win those they’ll get a majority of over 200 not 75.
Also, whoever predicted a Labour hold in Dorset South seems to have just put the last result in, presumably an error?
134.David, never mind that, did you get a lot of traffic to that story about the couple in Dundee?
Did taxpayers’ money go to the schools or not ? If yes, does it matter what name it was given ?
131#, christina, i think it is lib/con marginal with libs hanging on in a squeezed vote against labour in particular.
those snp supporters who might have voted tory (a position i would sit in if i lived in abberdeen south) may not be quite so keen after cameron’s stalling tactics against fiscal changes. the fact murphy could implement calman changes as early as tomorrow is another matter!
136 - One of the biggest stories of the year. Not surprised in the slightest. The internet is for p0rn. Disgusting or sexy things are what work online.
138.redcliffe62, seriously, the Libdems are in a hell of a mess in Aberdeen right now. And I fully expect their vote to fall back and fracture among the other parties. If anything, I think that makes Ann Begg safer, but with the seat becoming a four way marginal. The 2007 elections in that area confuse the picture further, the SNP got a hell of a boost by being the main opposition to the Labour/Libdem coalition in Holyrood.
Also, I do detect a tiredness surrounding the Libdems up here. They have dominated local/Holyrood and Westminster in some areas for so long now. And with the current economic climate and a possible government change, it doesn’t bode well for them. There is no denying that their vote has fallen back in Scotland what ever their position UK wide. I know that the last marginals poll looked good for them, but on the day after a hard fought GE campaign, what is the reason to stick with them?
O/T There would appear to be a ’slight’ problem with the MoD’s order of F35’s for the new carriers -
‘Looks like the USA is not going to supply source codes for F35 software to anyone:’
http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/396910-us-withhold-f-35-fighter-software-codes.html
Baroness Ashton denies taking funds for CND from Soviet Union
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6932391.ece
140. David Roe: The internet is for p0rn.
All these guys unzip their flies for p0rn, p0rn, p0rn!
81. Rod, I agree a Tory majority of 75 is highly unlikely (not impossible, but unlikely) cut it by 50 and your in the right ball park.
143 - A truly awesome musical. I’ve seen it in the West End four times now.
141.Also, the news of the huge financial black hole in the Aberdeen Council did not hit the headlines until just after the Holyrood/local elections back in 2007. This GE will be the first time the voters there get to have their say on this whole mess. Another important point, there was a real house price bubble in Aberdeen which means that a fair few of those that work in that council or Oil&Gas industry live in the neighbouring Aberdeenshire council which covers the Westminster constituencies of Gordon and West Aberdeen and Kincardine. Both are currently held by Libdems Malcolm Bruce and Robert Smith.
Bad ‘war’ stories all through the night on SKY.
Army chiefs slagging Gordon off for failing to equipe them whilst at the Treasury and Tony ‘making’ the case for Iraq.
Aside from being a disgrace for promoting prostitution, Belle du Jour is not half as good looking as Billie Piper…
Daily Mail on Mandy’s shooting party with Saif Gaddafi
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231003/Outrage-Mandy-goes-country-shoot-Gaddafi-son-And-surprise-Cherie-came-too.html
147.SallyC, I have a bloody good idea why there was a container of skies that turned up in Iraq. And that is a classic example of just how much Blair tried to avoid being seen to prepare for that war for domestic reasons. Some soldiers were basically left having to guess their intended destination in the Blair mystery airtours lotto.
They were either heading for Arctic training or Iraq and the Middle East.
136. the tabs are fairly self-explanatory. The “Forecast” one shows predictions for all undeclared seats based on the pattern so far declared. The coloured box is the forecast based on regional Uniform Swing. The columns to the right are the probability estimates for each party in the seat (based on the variability of each party’s performance so far.) These probabilities are summed to give the national forecast.
The results so far are highly unrealistic. The variability of each party’s performance both nationally and between the regions is far too high, as is the variation of swing.
agree that Huddersfield and Perry Bar taken alone would signify a far higher majority, but when taken with all the other results so far, they are clearly outliers…
150 wibbler, something smells distinctly rotten in that story…
the government should tread very carefully on this issue. From what i can gather there main defence is: hizbutria arent banned, wrong fund name. Once the bbc stop dribbling that line, and once the newspapers start digging then this could be really damaging for labour. Im pretty sure the right wing press will dig up more examples and have interviews and quotes from all the people close to the headteacher at the alledged school.
136, to get the Sheffield results I assumed a combination of a moderately large swing in actual support, and a Labour voter strike. Assume five to then thousand Labour supporters in those seats simply can’t be bothered to vote - they know the seat’s safe, so Labour doesn’t really need their vote, and Gordon Brown hasn’t got them excited. That may seem implausible, but it’s not an impossible scenario, and it would leave many safe labour seats looking wobbly, though most of the missing Labour voters would return to the fold for the following election.
153. If the Tories can’t get a 20% swing anywhere in a by-election, they won’t get one anywhere in a general election…
Obama’s turkey pardoning was the best moment of his presidency so far.
154. Rod, surely it depends where the by election seats are fought? If we could get NickPMP to step down and forgo his redundancy, given the polling numbers we’re consistently seeing for the Midlands, I reakon Broxtowe could swing to the Tories by 20%+ in a by election!
154, Doesn’t follow. In a by-election, the national parties can spot if things are going wrong for them, and try to correct. In a general election, national attention will be on the presumed marginals, allowing developments elsewhere to go unnoticed, especially if the party is in meltdown.
More importantly, your spreadsheet needs to be able to cope gracefully with extreme outcomes. If it can handle those, improbable though they might be, it can probably be trusted.
Off to bed now….
Still saddened by the way that the climate change debate (and seemingly tangential subjects) has been approached by posters, there really is no way forwards until entrenched views and rehearsed arguments are discarded. I get annoyed with the purists on all sides at the best of times but, when a simple switch to talk about the nature of the debate itself rather than the science behind it, creates such friction and incomprehension it’s easy to despair. If the parameters of debate are not open to being questioned then what hope is there that we get anywhere beyond people just stating rigid positions to each other ad nauseam.
Having also today been shown proof that Blair outright lied to take us to war in Iraq it’s doubly depressing. Politicians don’t listen, that we know, but you’ve got to hope that the electorate can regularly question what they believe or what they are told and push for open, not closed, debate.
Happy Thanksgiving to US posters by the way, enjoy the holiday.
156. AFAIK, there has never, ever been a 20% swing to any party in any seat in any general election… Yet the rose-tinted Tories here managed to produce 4 in the first 40 declarations.
Back on thread. It would be fairly straightforward to produce another simplified spreadsheet, where everyone could make just a “party to win” predicion for every seat. These could be summed/averaged, and the overall nation prediction extracted. This could be tracked on a rolling basis, say every week. Just a thought. These Google Docs are vastly improved since the last time I looked at them, and the current one I’m testing is working a treat…
158. If the parameters of debate are not open to being questioned then what hope is there that we get anywhere beyond people just stating rigid positions to each other ad nauseam.
Sounds like the abortion debate in America. Or the health care debate in America. Well, just about any debate in America, really.
“Having also today been shown proof that Blair outright lied to take us to war in Iraq it’s doubly depressing.”
At least we can rejoice in the fact that such a man did not become President of the European Council last week. There was a lot of jubilation in the right-wing press that, by rejecting Blair, the EU had shown itself to be ’small’. But the real reason his appointment would have been deeply inappropriate transcended the European debate and can be summed up in three little letters - w, m, d. And the number 45.
145. David Roe.
I’ve only seen it three times, but that did include the last night at the Noël Coward and the first night at the Gielgud.
159: Maybe the 1945 one? Labour went from 150 to over 380.
159. According to Wikipedia, there was a 19% swing to Labour in Brent North in 1997. But there again, Rhodes Boyson was the Tory candidate.
164. I think that was the highest, at 18.8.
163. I don’t think so, the swing was far more uniform then than now.
a list of the highest since 1950 can be found here
http://www.election.demon.co.uk/recordswing.html
The Merthyr Tydfil results in 1970/74 don’t really count, since they were entirely an artifact of the candidacy of the remarkable S.O. Davies…
Front pages are not good for the government today. Can you book a white wash?
Paul Waugh at his Evening Standard Blog via Iain Dale’s daily (half dozen) - Robin Cook RIP
151. RodCrosby November 26th, 2009 at 12:22 am
“The results so far are highly unrealistic. The variability of each party’s performance both nationally and between the regions is far too high, as is the variation of swing.”
Thanks for running this experiment. Maybe the noise will cancel out and it will yet give a stunningly accurate prediction.
I really wouldn’t stress over the unreality of some of the predictions. If you wanted to see the effect of a plausible swing, uniformly applied, you wouldn’t need anyone’s help. If you get a disparate group of people to input their hunch then you’ll get a mixture of the astute, the dumb and the p*ss-taking. It’s still interesting. Entertaining too.
As to the “Super Six”, I don’t think there’s any pro-Tory bias there. They’re not predicting who will win the seats, after all, just where they thought the value was in the betting. And it’s hardly a blue-foam-in-the-mouth group of posters.
christina, i think the libs will be spinning a strong anti war mantra at GE time, saying we told you so. labour were dishonest, anfd the tories knew as well and backed them. and that will have a knock on effect on many people.
i think some people may consider voting bnp as they actively back the soldiers and not the politicians who send them to places they should not, any war that does not defend the country but defends imperialistic and geo political arrangements, and the libs need to pick up some of that latent anger and harnness it into votes. in aberdeenshire and everywhere else.
if they do this “right” they will win that seat.
labour were dishonest, anfd the tories knew as well and backed them. by redcliffe62 November 26th, 2009 at 1:25 am
Any evidence for this at all?
170. Even if the Tories were completely ignorant, it’s letting them off on a technicality, because everyone knows (surely) that there were literally no circumstances whatsoever in which Iain Duncan Smith would not have fully supported the Iraq invasion. If Blair was Bush’s poodle, IDS was his automaton.
…literally no circumstances whatsoever in which Iain Duncan Smith would not have fully supported the Iraq invasion. If Blair was Bush’s poodle, IDS was his automaton.
by James Kelly November 26th, 2009 at 1:33 am
Speculation as supporting evidence is no evidence at all.
Assumption upon assumption makes no case.
162 - Showoff
Speaking of showoffs, the Aussies are starting to bat beautifully against the Windies.
172. My point is that, given IDS’ extraordinary attitude in 2003, no supporting evidence is required. It literally does not matter whether he knew how patchy the evidence was or not.
173. David Roe.
The last night at the Noël Coward was really special - the audience was certainly predominantly fans. And at the end the cast all came on and did a “we’re going on holiday” sort of thing. And when they mentioned that the next production at that theatre would be Calendar Girls, Trekkie appeared. saying “me not going anywhere! me staying right here!”
174 - But it is hardly fair since, unlike our PM, he didn’t actually have that patchy evidence. Blaming the Tories in any way for Iraq is ridiculous.
176. Won’t wash, David. Even my mental arithmetic is robust enough to know that Blair wouldn’t have had a prayer of winning the crucial Commons vote authorising war without the near-unanimous backing of the Tories. They’re every bit as culpable as the Blairite lobby fodder, with a handful of honourable exceptions like Ken Clarke and John Randall.
177: Even my mental arithmetic is robust enough to know that Blair wouldn’t have had a prayer of winning the crucial Commons vote authorising war without the near-unanimous backing of the Tories.
Yeah, but if he couldn’t have relied on them he simply wouldn’t have had a vote.
177.James, be interesting to see how the whole Megrahi issue pans out. Hindsight and party loyalty are a wonderful thing when one is in power, and with all the facts at your fingertips. So much easier to take a pop at the opposition who must rely on what those in power tell them.
179. In the case of Megrahi, the default position of the opposition parties at Holyrood seemed to be automatically disbelieve everything the Scottish government told them, no matter how strong the evidence was. So it’s hardly a great analogy, Christina. And dare I say that you seem to be finding party loyalty a scooch even in opposition!
180.Hmmm, party loyalty crops up again! Sorry James, but you cannot have it both ways on this.
No, seriously, my anger at the way we were all deceived by Blair and his government over Iraq will stick with me a long time. You see, I think that there are moments in our history where we totally rely on our government not to spin, but instead they must be brutally honest. And when any government in this country plans to take us to war, that has got to be an absolute given. Will I criticise IDS for expecting Blair and his government to have followed that rule, no, because that is what IDS would have done himself. Too honourable to do otherwise, when we resort to directing criticism at those that believe their government should be that honourable, include me.
On a different issue, I crossed a sort of psychological threshold today where I realised for the first time that, for all my distaste for Labour and its authoritarianism, I probably am going to find myself on election night willing them to beat the Tories. Labour have embraced the Calman recommendations for completely cynical reasons, but nevertheless they’ve probably boxed themselves into a position where they would have to act on them to some extent if re-elected. It really is dismaying to see the Tories revert to being the only anti-Scottish-self-government party yet again - they just never seem to learn from their own history. If they get slaughtered in Scotland on election night, they really have nobody but themselves to blame.
182 - But they’ll console themselves with the Commons majority.
174. It was incomprehensible to IDS that Blair would be lying about military intelligence. After Iraq, he never believed a single word Blair said (and continually quite rightly accused Blair of dishonesty) but it was too late for the Iraq decision.
If the internet had existed in 2003, I think the truth would have got out in time. But in 2003 British Prime Ministers were still trusted, and IDS, in particular, believed in the institutions of the state.
181. There’s only one person trying to have it both ways on this issue here and it’s not me. How anyone can absolve IDS of blame over the Iraq invasion when it simply couldn’t have taken place had he made a different choice is beyond me. Leadership ought to be about taking decisions and accepting full responsibility for them. You seem to have a view of IDS in 2003 as an innocent child nominally taking a decision, but with the ‘adults’ conveniently shouldering all the responsibility for him.
183. Feel free to keep making smug predictions, David. All the better for dredging up in six months’ time and rubbing your nose in it if you’re wrong!
182. James Kelly November 26th, 2009 at 2:18 am
James, a couple of days ago you remarked that the conventional wisdom that a Conservative victory was best for the SNP was wrong, and that actually a Labour victory was more desirable.
Would you care to elaborate on that - tomorrow maybe - I know it’s late?
I’m puzzled because I can’t see past the conventional view: Labour in Westminster -> Scotland = Quebec ; Tories in Westminster -> Scotland = independent.
You don’t see it that way?
Well, I don’t know much about Scottish politics, but I’m interested. Would a Labour GE victory really bring Scottish independence closer?
Disagree with you about IDS btw. We’ll never know for sure, but I really doubt he’d have sided with the government if he’d known what we know now - self-interest, if nothing else, would have dictated otherwise.
184. “If the internet had existed in 2003″
Ahem…
187. Michael - I think the nationalist strategy is at a crossroads, and the direction it takes from here hinges on the outcome of the next general election. If Labour win, the prevailing gradualist strategy will continue - as I’ve outlined above, the Scottish Parliament is more likely to obtain substantially more powers under Labour, and the SNP are also much more likely to win the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections. The reason is that as unpopular as Labour are, much of the anti-Labour protest vote will melt away as soon as the Tories are in power. A precedent for that would be the Tories winning their first by-election for eight years within weeks of losing office in 1997. They also won the Euro elections in 1999, despite in reality remaining hugely unpopular, with William Hague regarded as a national joke. So the Labour’s chances of winning the 2011 election (almost by default) would paradoxically be transformed at a stroke the moment they lose power in London.
On the other hand, if the Tories win, the SNP gradualist strategy effectively goes out of the window. There would be no new powers for Holyrood on offer from the Tories, so the SNP would have to go for broke for full independence. To do that, clearly they would have to do three things - they would have to win the 2011 election (much harder under a Tory government for the reasons I’ve set out), then persuade the Liberal Democrats to back an independence referendum, and then win that referendum. The good news is that they’d have a much better prospect of achieving the latter under a Tory government, but the three in combination would still be difficult. The gradualist strategy that a Labour government would make possible would mean less potential reward but a much greater chance of success, while the go for broke strategy a Tory government would necessitate means much higher risk, but a much greater potential reward.
Being naturally cautious (some would say pessimistic) I fancy our chances much more by sticking to a gradualist path, which leads me to conclude that a Labour government would be better for the SNP.
188. OK genius. The political blogosphere did not exist in 2003!
IDS was keen on the special relationship, and was no doubt unable to fathom that he was being lied to by the Americans as well as Blair. He was out of the loop of government, and had no direct access to the intelligence, or maybe he was shown enough to convince him. We will never know. I agree he holds responsibility. Without Conservative votes, Blair would not have gone to war.
190. I should add that IDS is a strong supporter of an investigation into the Iraq War. He is obviously keen for the real story to come out, I would imagine, to explain how he was deceived into supporting the venture. Or maybe some other reason.
190. The political blogosphere did not exist in 2003!
Ahem…
See this is the point with regard to IDS. He could only take the doom-laden messages from Blair at face value. The statements made to Parliament by Blair led many, myself included, to support the Iraq war. We were lied to.
192 – The UK political blogoshere did not exist in 2003 as it does today, that is the point I believe Tapestry is attempting to make.
185.Poor answer to my post. Most grown ups recognise that the situation was a little bit more grown up than that for all concerned.
195. Let me guess, Christina - would a ‘good’ answer to your post have been something along the lines of “yes, on reflection I can now see you are absolutely right”?
As for your own efforts - a generous 2/10. See me.
Time for the nightly McBarney?
196. Grossly unfair, David, we haven’t had one for at least ten days…
176. Declaring war is a function of the Crown, as exercised by the Government on behalf of HMQ. It is not within the powers of Parliament.
Ah the memorable days are obviously the ones where you fall out.
The Sun’s Scottish edition is splashing on Mandy and Gaddafi you will be unsurprised to learn.
198. “It is not within the powers of Parliament.”
I accept that’s the constitutional position, but in the real world of politics if that vote had been lost, not only would Britain not have taken part in the invasion, but in all likelihood Tony Blair would have resigned. And then a relieved nation could have collectively said, in the immortal words of Ian Lang, “and that’s a double-whammeh”.
200 - If you are refering to 1992, the Scottish Secretary Ian Lang actually said “tonight Scotland has said no to nationalism, and Britain has said no to socialism, and that’s a double whammy”.
200. That is probably true. Blair’s performance was truly remarkable. I remember at the time, i was discussing the situation with some semi-professional politicians from the Conservative Party, highly experienced in both politics and life, including retired senior police officers, a barrister, and a current conservative PPC.
None of us could even conceive that a British Prime Minister would mislead Parliament on an issue that was so important. It just couldnt happen. We took at face value the repeated hint that Tony Blair dropped that, he knew information that he couldnt tell us.
201. I know that’s what he said, although he definitely pronounced it as “whammeh”. I always thought it was a highly amusing soundbite, because it effectively conceded the point that Scotland had said yes to socialism!
And the other thing of course is that we have had 18 seats changing hands in the first 42 declarations. Such a turnover is highly suggestive of wishful thinking…
Even in 1997, only 9 seats changed hands in the first 42 declarations.
Cumulative declaration distribution (GB only)
N changed
50 10
100 21
150 33
200 42
250 55
300 71
350 90
400 113
450 136
500 148
550 162
600 173
641 181
@38 - I live in Wallasey. I’m normally a solid Lib Dem voter, but I want the Labour party out.
I’m voting Conservative.
I agree, it’s not likely, but don’t rule it out. Leah Fraser is popping up everywhere. She might just do it.
119 String theory is as much a science as any other branch of maths.
Also it is quite possible to imagine tests of the theory though whether it would make it to a falsifiable prediction is hard to say.
God knows what this has to do with political betting though.