Which way is MORI going to go next?
November 25th, 2009
Can you predicts its next set of numbers?
I don’t think that there’s been a poll in recent times that has had such an impact on the media narrative that the November Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI.
Even though it’s now four days since it was published and nearly a week and a half since the fieldwork close the general election outcome that it suggested is still being mulled over by “serious” commentators.
So what do you think the pollster is going to come up with next? Will it be more of the same, a Labour lead or even Brown’s party heading back to the 18% share that Ipsos-MORI had in May 2009?
For guidance I’ve reproduced the “form-book” above from UKPollingReport.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
They’ll go well for the Tories
10-15% is too wide a band, it’ll win by miles
Can you predicts (sic) its next set of numbers? No, but I can take a guess based on the past twelve months of polling.
CON lead 10 - 15%
So Con lead has been going backwards..
6,17,12,17,16,17,12,22,13 etc
I can see why 6 caused a rumpus (before the data was analysed).
’spin the wheel and place your bets’
FPT 612 S&S
Try this - the coverage of climategate in the US - the same can be said for Oz broadcasters too.
Cue tim making an insulting personal remark about me.
http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/checker.aspx?v=GdqGaGqG2G
One thing you have to credit Bob Worcester and his team, they’ve set up a whole new narrative, how many other pollsters can have claimed to have done that recently.
(Granted that narrative is bollocks, especially given the past vote weightings profiles)
FPT. 600. In my experience plenty of those are home counties émigrés who move down there and then reinvent themselves as “Cornish”. Normally one or two long lost relatives who once took a holiday on the Tamar will suffice for them to feel they can credibly claim “Cornish ancestry.
On the wider point, is this not symptomatic of the wider malaise in the British state?
The English are told they have no identity and - unless it’s a football match - aren’t allowed to proudly assert it. Conversely, devolved Celtic provinces both get much more political attention and more public money.
If you had the choice, what would you pick?
7. The CRU at UEA helped set up a narrative that rings round the world and has OB flying in to Copenhagen - does not mean its a good thing.
I think 10-15.
Apologies to be impolitely off-topic so early on, but FPT and in response to the BBC admitting its own bias in favour of global cooling deniers (that, nicked from Guido, is my new favourite phrase), I’ve complained to the BBC and requested the names and qualifications of the scientific experts they had this “high level seminar” with.
Best hope none of those people have any problems with leaky e-mails lately…
6 - No, this is a nice tim.
YouGov have now published the detailed datasheets from their Scottish Telegraph survey.
The fieldwork dates (which were not published in the DT) were 18-20 Nov. I think that what we are seeing there was a powerful by-election bounce:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ScottishTelegraph_20-Nov09.pdf
FPT. “608 - Of course thats right.
They realise they let gave the conspiracy loons far too much coverage over MMR.”
If you believe that the arguments are transparently stupid, tim, then surely you agree that you should give them as much TV time as possible?
The maximum number of people would then see the arguments to be ridiculous and their numbers would drastically decline.
What are you afraid of?
I predict Labour eating away yet further into the Tory lead. Labour and their henchmen at the The Mirror (and its sock-puppet The Mail) are going fully with the onslaught about Cameron corruptly fixing the tax laws to benefit himself and his friends. Why, at PMQs today Brown even equated Cameron’s supposed criminality with that of Islamic terrorists! It’s difficult to see how this ceaseless onslaught won’t start to filter through to the public psyche and reap irreparable damage.
6- Yes, the mainstream media in the U.S. are also refusing to cover Climategate, naturally, because to do so harms their own perceived partisan interests in advancing global warming hysteria. I’m sure the last thing they want is for people to know about the dishonesty behind the data used to substantiate the dangers of global warming, so they’ll do everything they can to prevent people from finding out about it. Of course, the fact that the BBC is publicly financed only makes their behavior much, much worse.
Now the collected punditry have gone hung parliament, reality will humiliate them. I’m starting to agree with Guido on them.
Mike / Others
Does anyone know whether we are gettinga Comres tonight ?
FPT Gwyfa
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/25/what-does-yougov-scotland-say-about-a-hung-parliament/comment-page-5/#comment-1322640
Thank you for your long reply. I have only one objection: you did not answer my question!
In our list of “capable” Scottish or Welsh Labour politicians, we so far have:
1. Jim Murphy
2. err
3. errrr
4. errrrrr
etc.
Please identify at least 20 more, as 1 competent (Westminster) politico does not a Scottish Government-in-waiting make.
(Note: please no-one say Dougie Alexander. He is barely capable of picking up the pieces of Gordon’s smashed Nokias.)
8, I would say British. I have 3 Scottish and 1 Irish grandparent 2 Scottish parents. Was born and lived in Scotland until I was 4 when I moved to England. Joined the Army and since then have lived in N Ireland 5 years, 3 years Germany, 4 years Oman bits and pieces such as the Falklands and South Georgia, the remainder of my life I have lived in various parts of England. So which do you think I should pick?
18. Malcolm Rifkind.
More interesting is the next Comres result. This time last year, when Ipsos Mori was reporting leads of 3% & 11% in two polls less than a fortnight apart, we had Comres giving a Tory lead of only 1%.
8. I would think that some of the attraction might have to do with pretty scenery and relative warmth rather than identity issues, but who am I to question the ethnic yearnings of the Home Counties retiree?
13 - You have a point in a way.
Limbaugh Beck Delingpole et al are as sad as Andrew Wakefield and his followers, such as Hsilop, the Mail et al.
I’d rather see someone post a link to a serious study of how the UCR leaks affect the science rather than listen to the sounding boards on blogs.
7. TSE - yes I’m sure they are very happy about that, and won’t be too concerned about whether the ‘narrative’ has any real foundations or not.
13 - Michael Gove.
Not Liam Fox
gabble, nice graph over at the speccie. Would you care to comment?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/
25. Why?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5571173/saving-the-world.thtml
It’s so good to know we were the best placed country to weather the recession that started in America.
Baroness Ashton questioned over CND and Soviet money
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6653340/Baroness-Ashton-questioned-over-CND-and-Soviet-money.html
8. Nonsense. I may be Cornish, and British, and white, and European, and Christian, and Tom Knox, and a man, and a writer, and a journalist, and a westerner, and homo sapiens, and northern, and a notorious whoremonger, and a property owner, and a taxpayer, and a Londoner, a mammal, a hominin, a biped, and a Celt.
But above all else, I am an…. Englishman. There is no prouder claim. All other identities are inherently inferior.
For he himself has said it,
And it’s greatly to his credit,
That he is an Englishman!
ALL.
That he is an Englishman!
BOAT.
For he might have been a Roosian,
A French, or Turk, or Proosian,
Or perhaps Itali-an!
ALL.
Or perhaps Itali-an!
BOAT.
But in spite of all temptations
To belong to other nations,
He remains an Englishman!
He remains an Englishman!
ALL.
For in spite of all temptations
To belong to other nations,
He remains an Englishman!
He remaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaains an Eeeeeeenglishmaaaaaaaaan!
27 - A fantasist.
And an idiot single vaccine pusher.
20. The Ghost of Harry Flashman
We are looking for capable Scottish LABOUR politicians!
(Malcolm used to be a Young Scottish Liberal, and pro-devolutionist, but never a Labourite!)
“PMQs sketch: Brown has stopped losing ”
http://www.politics.co.uk/feature/legal-and-constitutional/pmqs-sketch-brown-has-stopped-losing-$1342818.htm
Mr Flashman, I didn’t realise you also held Sir Malcolm in such high regard.
FPT 575
“Why do you think Norway has barely had a recession and is already planning to raise interst rates-could it be something to do with oil and using it for the benefit of its 4 million people rather than wasting it on wars and Trident?”
No Tom, the oil benefits go into the oil fund which is for future generations and is not allowed to be used to mitigate current economic problems.
The reason that Norway weathered this last recession reasonably well is because they already had their banking crisis/collapse in 1992 at which time they restructured their whole finacial/banking sector.
And in fact the Norwegian industrial base has suffered more than most as they rely so heavily on oil, mining and shipping. All of which have been hit very hard. Which is why their stock markets suffered such large losses.
Off topic we have the Commonwealth Heads of Govt beano happening here so of course all the expats are indulging in a bunfight to meet HMQ and Phil. I’m not sure if GB is attending doubtless Miliband will. Got to keep up the airmiles. If I get to have a word I’ll report back.
I just bumped into an old friend from uni in the lobby at work. He’s working in the thick of it! (ie, he’s poltical adviser to a shadow minister) Wonder if I’ll be able to get any useful info from him…
STOP PRESS. Some hacker has just posted other scientists laptops onto the net.
Turns out E doesn’t equal MC^2 afterall, it actually equals 7.
DNA is not a double helix, but is actually the same shape as a curly wurly with a picture of Dusty Bin embossed on it.
Glen Beck as we speak has just fallen off the edge of the world.
So it’s not all bad news.
23
Tim,
it is clear you know absolutely nothing about the AGW/Natural climate change arguments or the science behind them so why don’t you leave it to the adults to argue about this and carry on playing with your Bob the Builder toys.
18 Stuart, are you seriously suggesting that the single most popular party in Scotland — one that is claiming between 35 and 39 per cent of the vote according to recent polls — has just one competent individual in it ? (Jim Murphy)
The Labour Party represents say 35 per cent of the voting population of a country of 5.3 million.
And it has just one competent individual in it!
SeanT has a low opinion of Scotland — but he has never suggested something as derogatory as that, Stuart.
33 The url says it all really
33 The url says it all really
SeanT, best you have a chat with these loons then.
http://www.cornishnotenglish.com/
32. Ah sorry - you are right - Jim Murphy and er..
30 - SeanT is there a subliminal message in there?
And clearly Jonathan should go back to watching ‘In the Night Garden’.
I think the Tory lead in the next MORI will be 8 or 9%.
Anymore and they would face ridicule for the last one so no way are they going to allow the blues to be 10 or 11% ahead in the next one IMO.
39 HERESY! tim isn’t an expert on every subject, shurely you must be mistaken?!?
33. Brown has stopped losing because he already lost. He is doomed to lead Labour into the GE; his party has yielded to this tragic fate. The Tories are going to win. So PMQs doesn’t really matter any more - they are going through the motions.
From now until the election, everything that happens in the Commons is like gunfire in the trenches between the signing of the Armistice at 5am and the cessation of hostilities at 11:00.
The YouGov datasheets include the full Holyrood voting intention figures (also missing from the DT article):
(+/- change from YouGov/Scottish Green Party poll 28 Oct 2009)
Const vote (FPTP)
Lab 33% (+2)
SNP 32% (-2)
LD 15% (+1)
Con 14% (-2)
oth 6% (+1)
Regional vote (AMS)
Lab 30% (+1)
SNP 29% (n/c)
Con 14% (-2)
LD 14% (n/c)
Grn 6% (n/c)
SSP 3%
Sol 1%
oth 5%
ie. compared to October, none of the changes were statistically significant.
31 – Tim, your comment @23 does not quite tally with your previous responses since the UCR leak occurred, which is to scream “conspiracy” at the top of your voice and accuse others of being “a fantasist” “a whackjob” or other colourful epithets.
Which is it..?
33 - ‘”PMQs sketch: Brown has stopped losing”‘
‘With the polls looking promising for No 10′
What polls are these? I’ve only heard of one.
39 - You’re right on that.
But I can spot a conspiracy theory on the internet.
18 I thought the Labour candidate for Glasgow East — Margaret Curran was fine.
She had an impossible job (after Marshall), but I though she came across well on the few TV interviews I saw.
Again, from the little I have seen, Cathy Jamieson seems competent.
I note with interest that todays Guardian Society ( The jobs bit which annoys so many on the right so much they want it shut down and replaced with a state run monopoly website… ) has its front page interview with the White, Male, Christain, Conservative PPC for Camberwell and Peckham.
The fact the Guardian is covering its self with this sort of positioning is a far more accurate assessment of the way things are going than MORI’s figures.
On the other hand name an SNP politician other than Salmond - bonus points if they are competent or haven’t released any convicted terrorists lately.
23. I am generally “anti” conspiracy theories.
For example: fake landings on the moon, government conspiracy over 9/11, the grassy knoll etc.
What puts me off the climate-change camp to the point where I actively *WANT* them to proven wrong is:
(a) They drastically oversimplify what is a very complex issue
(b) They are hyper-emotional and fail to come up with practical solutions other than; “We must stop emitting all carbon NOW or we’re all going to die!!”
(c) They allow themselves to be hijacked by those with a political agenda - not enough effort is made to be apolitical and divorce the science from this
(d) They are patronising and think they know best
(e) They are very rude to those who disagree with them
In fact, I wonder if there’d even be any real disagreement if the climate-change lobby both lived in the real world and treated people with a bit more respect.
As things stand they do neither and consequently have everyone rooting for the sceptic camp.
46 In the night garden is great! Hugely subtle, plenty of subtexts and repressed tension. Maka Paka is the modern working man’s hero.
Certainly, more serious than Glen Beck.
40. Gwynfa
I note that you have still failed to answer the question.
The list so far stands at Jim Murphy. Can anyone name 20 capable Scottish and Welsh Labour politicians?
Come on! Several people have voiced that Iain Gray’s lot is likely to sweep to power in 2011, so who is going to be in his government?
30. Except the people I was referring to explicitly reject their Englishness.
I was trying to provide a narrative as to “why” they might do that.
57 - I agree with you on every point, I want nothing to do with the Zac Goldsmith or James Delingpole extremes.
26. d(too)
Look at this graph:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100001807/when-economists-get-nasty/
UK not the best, not the worst, just, as predicted, moderate.
53
There is no conspiracy theory. There are the emails and, more importantly, the annotated code showing where changes have been made to the data. Since the authors have not denied the emails are theirs then it is a straight forward case of misuse of public funds and corruption of the scientific peer-review system in pursuit of personal agendas.
When people are caught red handed you don’t need a conspiracy theory.
31. You’ll have a very hard time convincing me - and any other serious commentator - that Michael Gove is an “idiot”.
58
Ah but are you a Ninky Nonk fan or a Plinky Plonk Groupie?
64 Since when have you been a serious commentator CR?
64 - I was referring to Single Vaccine Liam.
53 ‘But I can spot a conspiracy theory on the internet.’
So what? Most of the other posters here can spot a loony tunes obsessive on the internet, and they’re all looking at you at the moment!
Just watched PMQs. What was Cameron thinking of with his bizarre line of questioning re Islamic schools? Surely he should have put the issue in the public domain beforehand so that his questions had some context to the man on the street, and indeed, the PM - and then make the Govt look incompetent by pointing out Balls’ failure to respond, the PM not being in control of events, etc.
Whether or not there’s an issue here, Brown looked perfectly reasonable in saying “I know nothing, I will look into it, I will respond”.
Instead, Cameron prattled on about Islamists and allowed Brown to imply that DC was pursuing a racist (and rather inflammatory) line of questioning. I wonder how potential Muslim Tory will feel about this?
Rather curious, and I don’t see what Dave gets out of this. If anything, he could look rather silly. Not his best day, and a rare win for Gordon.
“UK not the best, not the worst, just, as predicted, moderate.”
No, the prediction was that the UK was best placed. Not moderately placed. Best placed.
55.
No wonder newspapers are in decline. Look at this front page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NYTimes-Page1-11-11-1918.jpg
Armistice Signed, end of the War! Ousted Kaiser Flees to Holland. Berlin seized by Revolutionists!
*Revolutionists* is especially brilliant.
Then compare it with this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
“Banks win court decision over overdraft charges”
Oh FFS. Not only is this the dullest headline ever, it is also poor journalese. “over overdraft?? come on you useless lefty subs, shape up. I am very glad the Tories are going to destroy the Guardian. It does not deserve to survive.
59 - Come on! Several people have voiced that Iain Gray’s lot is likely to sweep to power in 2011, so who is going to be in his government?
James Gordon Brown as The Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth has a nice ring to it doesn’t it?
Alastair Darling as Deputy First Minister Cabinet Secretary for Health and Wellbeing has a nice ring to it.
and so does Jim Murphy as Cabinet Secretary for Education and Lifelong Learning.
With Wendy Alexander as Cabinet Secretary for Justice and her Brother as Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and the Environment.
Those appointments will do for the independence movement that anything Alex Salmond can ever do?
“I wonder how potential Muslim Tory will feel about this?”
Quite fine, since most muslims abhor Hizb and its fellow extremists and really hate the idea it is allowed to flourish here.
59 Stuart, I have named 2 Scottish Labour politicians in 54.
I agree with you about the low standard of Scottish and Welsh Labour politicians in Edinburgh & Cardiff at the moment.
But, my point is …. that there is talent in both Scottish and Welsh Labour.
Suppose you are a young and ambitious Scottish Labour politician in 2011. Do you make your career in Westminster (out of power for probably two cycles, and there will be fewer Scottish seats once Cameron has gerrymandered the boundaries). Or do you make your career in Edinburgh?
Edinburgh and Cardiff look much more attractive to an ambitious young pol.
62. “UK not the best, not the worst, just, as predicted, moderate.”
Call it moderate if you like but it is still a bigger recession than the early 80s and 90s recessions.
61. Excellent.
But surely, like myself, you have no objections to their views being aired in public for all to judge?
69 - “I wonder how potential Muslim Tory will feel about this?”
Actually I’m quite happy for Cameron to raise it. At least he’s got the guts to raise it, rather than pandering to Community leaders and the like.
Let’s remember, Labour’s approach, has allowed the BNP to flourish.
59 If Labour lose next UK election then IHMO it’s Jim Murphy’s lot who will fight the next Scots Parliament election.
Why be a small fish in a pond where you can’t vote on much of the legislation when you can be a pike in a pond full of roach.
Tim one for you, FPT, I’ve emailed PtP re our bet on W&L.
And one thing that will amuse you no end. Turns out one of my neighbours will be Dietmar Hamann. I really am in footballers wives territory.
But Mr Hamann is a legend and a hero of mine,
62: Do you actually read the articles or just look at the pretty pictures?
If you take the PMIs at face value (that black line), the UK would have had the mildest recession in the Western world and would already be far further out of the woods, growing far more strongly, than any of our major counterparts. This is clearly wide of the mark. But in fairness to Goldman Sachs, this is not their argument – merely that the ONS figures (the green line) have overstated the scale of the collapse in GDP towards the end of the recession. My own feeling is that the UK is still in recession. This at least seems to be borne out by the industrial production data yesterday, which showed that the contraction in industry in Q3 was even worse than had been thought at the time of the GDP figures.
71. The Sun was doing pretty good ones much more recently:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ThhguC97EdA/ST5-Lt8aDHI/AAAAAAAAATY/xmnzFZpYFrM/s400/STICK-IT-UP-YOUR-JUNTA.jpg
http://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/the_sun_gotcha2-jpg.jpeg
54. Gwynfa
Fairy nuff. I’ll give you Curran and Jamieson.
Right, we’re up to 3 now. I note that Iain Gray has not been nominated yet…
I believe the Guardian sacked a trainee journo (Dilpazier Aslam) last year when he was exposed as being a member of Hizb ut Tahrir.
Cameron and the Guardian singing from the same hymn sheet..? Shudder
83. If it had been the Independant he probably would have been promoted
72. The Screaming Eagles
80. Yes and your point is…
81.Which Union boycotted the war, and how did they do it?
“39 - You’re right on that.
But I can spot a conspiracy theory on the internet.
by tim November 25th, 2009 at 4:21 pm ”
I look forward to reading more about this ‘conspiracy theory’.
Given that tim has a very low opinion of fact-free arguments and poor quality data - perhaps this list of issues [ http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2009/11/data-horribilis-harryreadmetxt-file.html ] from the programmer attempting to make the CRU’s model work would be helpful, here’s one at random:
“Back to the gridding. I am seriously worried that our flagship gridded data product is produced by Delaunay triangulation - apparently linear as well.
As far as I can see, this renders the station counts totally meaningless.
It also means that we cannot say exactly how the gridded data is arrived at from a statistical perspective - since we’re using an off-the-shelf product that isn’t documented sufficiently to say that.
Why this wasn’t coded up in Fortran I don’t know - time pressures perhaps? Was too much effort expended on homogenisation, that there wasn’t enough time to write a gridding procedure? Of course, it’s too late for me to fix it too. Meh.0″
Here are lots of examples from those who aren’t arguing with the ideology of AWG but with the data and it’s manipulation.
66. Sorry Jonathan, I forgot.
You are only serious if you’re a Labour supporter.
Sorry.
69 - “I wonder how potential Muslim Tory will feel about this?”
Given that most Muslims hate Hizb, it won’t worry them at all.
As for Cameron bringing it up, I have no issue with that at all, it’s curious that it has come up a month after the two councils suspended funding and launched enquiries.
It has however come two days after the Tories links with anti semites in Poland were revealed in greater depth.
A coincidence I’m sure.
90 - oh no, I’ve inadvertently fed tim. Bugger…
67. I see tim.
But Liam Fox is no idiot either - I don’t agree with all he says though.
69. are you suggesting that the PM of our country shouldnt know about an incident of public money funding extremism! Im assuming cameron thought the PM would have some knowledge since it was published in the telegraph 3 weeks ago and the education secetary has a letter about it. incompetency at its best.
90: ‘It has however come two days after the Tories links with anti semites in Poland were revealed in greater depth.’
Hmm, more like two days after the issue was killed off what with MacShane’s risible efforts on Newsnight - sitting there like a big fat frog, putting on a bizarre high-pitched voice, referring to Dan Hannan as ‘Danny’ and offering him career advice. Laughable politics!
Poll results so far seem to say more about opinion of Mori than about voter intentions
89 Thank-you for clearing that up CR. But don’t be too hard on yourself though. You’re forever to be known as a man of great seriousness. A sober thinker of the utmost profundity.
One day they will sing songs about you.
92 - OK, I withdraw the word idiot.
Fox is a fantasist who used the Single vaccine campaign to further his tawdry leadership bid.
Will that do?
Maybe Cameron has decided to do more to expose the depth of Labour’s political correctness. A risky strategy, but one that could pay dividends - forcing Labour to defend radical islam with the BNP in its backyard.
Obama has just pardoned a turkey ahead of the thanksgiving holiday.
Gordon is safe.
Nick Robinson on Labour’s Hizb-ut-Tahrir schools
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/11/prime_ministers.html
I don’t understand this at all
Quite boring songs, it has to be said.
OT Wow - how to bring an honorable role into disrepute
“Two Beefeaters at the Tower of London have been dismissed following claims they harassed Moira Cameron, the first female Beefeater.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/8379326.stm
100 - Robinson really is a chore sometimes.
100. Suprised he too didn’t link it to IHT - about as relevant.
100. Suprised he too didn’t link it to IHT - about as relevant.
100 - Haringey has released this.
“An investigation was launched on October 26 – immediately after concerns were raised.
Funding was also immediately suspended pending the outcome of that investigation which is now almost complete.
We visited the school at the earliest opportunity to make sure the early years provision continues to meet the requirements of the Early Years Foundation framework. No evidence was found to suggest inappropriate content or influence in the school.
The school wrote to us on November 20 stating that it no longer has any links with any of the individuals who are alleged to have connections with Hizb ut Tahrir.
We are waiting for evidence from the school that the reported connections have been completely severed. The school is taking steps to make sure that pupils learn about different cultures and traditions. One way in which it is doing this is through joint work with a local Church of England primary school.”
According to a post on Harrys Place.
Cameron has raised this issue because its one of Due Diligence and extremism, which is the issue with Hague/Francois and their extremists in the EU.
100 I had a glance at his blog earlier and it was as ever content free - why he’s the Beeb’s Political Ed is beyond me.
100 wibbler - Here we go again:
David Cameron’s questions follow a letter from Michael Gove to his opposite number Ed Balls. Balls is about to reply insisting that:
* Both have been inspected by Ofsted since 2007
* Both are registered with the Department for Schools, Children and Families
* As a result both schools have legitimately received government funding
In other words: the correct government boxes were ticked, so everything’s all right in a bureaucratically perfect world.
96. You’re too kind Jonathan
107 - He’s got the vastly superior Laura K snapping at his heels now. Doubt he’ll be in his current role for much longer, thankfully. Never trust a man who feels that eccentric specs are a substitute for a personality.
35. Lost at the end of the previous thread, the point I was offering Tom for consideration re Norway is that its oil sector is not comparable to Scotland’s even if all UK production became Scottish.
Norway’s oil production 2.5mmbd; population, ~4 million; state sector %age of GDP, 41%;
The equivalent stats for Scotland, insofar as they can be ascertained, would be 1.6mmbd, 5 million, and 65%.
Or to sum up starkly - in Norway there’s 1.52 barrels of oil produced per day for everyone who’s part of the state-funded economy (2.5mm / 4.0 x 41%). In Scotland, the comparable figure is less than 0.5 barrels per day.
I.e. oil would fund for a hypothetically independent Scotland less than 1/3 of what it funds for Norway.
Salmond, as an oil economist, knows this perfectly well. It could be that 1/3 of the relative value is enough; it probably would not be under most scenarios; he knows this, too.
Despite which, he continues to argue for Scottish independence on the basis that “Scottish” oil would fund it. He cannot actually believe this.
In any case, were Norway ever to become a full EU member, I rather suspect that under a Common Oil Policy, “Scottish” or “Norwegian” oil would quickly prove to be as exclusively theirs as North Sea fish has proven to be England’s under the Common Fisheries Policy.
107 Plato
I don’t think Nick Robinson is particularly biased.
I think the problem is that he is more interested in opinion than in fact - and he is all too ready to editorialize and speculate when not necessary. He’s also too fond of the lobby to really dig into stories, preferring to flesh out other journalists’ stories.
The improvement in quality when he was on holiday and Laura Kuennsberg took over was astonishing.
Seems South Africa is also out of recession. Best placed ?
“South Africa has emerged from recession after its economy returned to growth between July and September.
Africa’s biggest economy grew by an annualised, seasonally adjusted rate of 0.9% during the quarter, compared with the previous three months. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8376294.stm
OT A rather amusing summary of climategate MSM coverage so far.
Hats off to Monbiot for the only one with a) integrity b) willing to talk about the elephant c) ask for action.
Since I’ve always read Monbiot with a moonbat filter, his revised position is stunning.
112
I think Nick Robinson has been to close to the levers of power for too long. When was the last time Robinson actually came up with a scoop?
OT A rather amusing summary of climategate MSM coverage so far.
Hats off to Monbiot for the only one with a) integrity b) willing to talk about the elephant c) ask for action.
Since I’ve always read Monbiot with a moonbat filter, his revised position is stunning.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017912/climategate-how-they-all-squirmed/
111. There was much discussion on here a few months ago that Shetland would be as rich as Dubai if it ceded from the Uk - pity about the weather.
Finally the BBC website get round to writing a story on this
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8379070.stm
101. Oh. You’ve upset me now.
I would have sung nice songs about *YOU* ;-(
117 Ghost - The weather in Dubai is awful as well, albeit in a different way..
100 - ‘Nick Robinson on Labour’s Hizb-ut-Tahrir schools’
I see Robbo ends his piece with:
‘There’s nothing like a looming election and a few tighter polls to liven up exchanges at Question Time.’
Yet another example of the Magically Multiplying Mori?
115 Erm, Robinson scoop…
118 - Its a strange story to bring up unless Gove and Cameron have some more evidence.
112 I didn’t say he was biased - just boringly content free.
118.But that sounds more like a story in response to a Labour briefing on the issue than any effort at journalism. Must they wait until the government respond before attempting to report on something like this, it sounds like it.
123 tim
I don’t think the BBC should start ignoring the main issue raised at Prime Minister’s Questions.
If they were to adopt such a policy, it might not be conducive to good public service broadcasting.
The Hizb-ut-Tahrir schools thing from Cameron is another example of the “Others” effect. One of the reasons i think the BNP may be with us well into 2012/13 is simply that for many people voting for them is a perfectly rational thing to do. As the spectrum subtly shifts to accomodate discussions that were previously taboo quite a few people will feel pride that their votes helped do it. Eventually they’ll return to a redrawn mainstream but it wouldn’t surprise me if they made a few BNP ” Gratitude ” votes in the meantime.
125 Unfortunately it seems the journalism by press release is now almost the norm.
10 yrs ago to get a cut and paste hit was a huge coup - 5 yrs ago it was becoming quite common, now it is seemingly the standard.
Guess that’s what happens when the MSM are losing money.
115. Probably the last time he went fishing in his cutlery draw.
129. drawer.
Brown said that Cameron may come to regret his remarks. If he had a conscience, he would.
12. Stuart, if you’re still around, on the subject of your bafflement on the previous thread about the “one or two SNP regulars” Mike was talking about, I think he may have been referring to the likes of me more than you. It’s impossible to deny that in the latest Telegraph poll Labour are not down at all in Scotland on their GE share, although as you point out there may be a by-election bounce at play there. My complaint has been more that every time a Scottish subsample shows that Labour’s vote is holding up better in Scotland than elsewhere, Mike (and sometimes other posters) leap on that as ‘yet more evidence’ that Labour are doing disproportionately well in Scotland (and thus disproportionately badly in England), and yet it always seems to go conveniently unnoticed when other Scottish sub-samples fail to bear out that narrative. Professor John Curtice noted during the Glasgow NE coverage that in fact, in recent months, Labour’s vote has tended to be down in Scotland by roughly the same amount as in the rest of the UK. There is of course a big difference in that there is no Tory surge in Scotland, but that’s a separate issue.
114. Re, Monbiot - I’m not sure abrupt volte-faces of this kind are that rare among the commentariat, are they?
I asked the other day if there has ever been an instance of Sir Bob (I couldn’t possibly say anything positive about the Tories) Worcester and his organisation being within 1% of the actual election result of any election? I dont know the answer hence the reason I ask.
90 ‘A coincidence I’m sure.’
Conspiracy theory hunter TIMBOT is now inventing his own. Priceless.
#111 JohnR
“In any case, were Norway ever to become a full EU member, I rather suspect that under a Common Oil Policy, “Scottish” or “Norwegian” oil would quickly prove to be as exclusively theirs as North Sea fish has proven to be England’s under the Common Fisheries Policy”
This simply has to be nonsense. Why has it not already happened as “we” are already in the UK?
Heath gave away the British fishing rights to the EU (and this was a much more important issue for Scotland than for England).
As for oil, I will forever fail to see how it is supposedly of extremely limited value to Scotland when all and sundry (decades late of course) are obliged to admit under freedom of information that it saved the economy of the whole UK in the late seventies and beyond.
Evening - some questions about beliefs. * Why do people assume that the CRU affair affects the AGW situation in any way? There is a lot of other evidence for AGW. Why have those who deny AGW now put so much weight on one piece of evidence as opposed to all the others? * Does the CRU data, in their opinion, prove no AGW? * Also, why does denial of AGW correlate so strongly with right-wing political beliefs? None of the top 10 conservative bloggers in the UK believes in AGW, which is remarkable given the proportions among the population as a whole. Does this imply that denial is an important partisan signal?
#135 line 7 should read “already in the EU”
“Christmas cards by Tories didn’t mention Christmas”
“The Conservative Party has come under attack after its official Christmas card made no reference to Christmas.”
http://www.christian.org.uk/news/christmas-cards-by-tories-didn%E2%80%99t-mention-christmas/
127. I think that’s a very perceptive post YS. And of course we have been here before - the NF fizzled out as an electoral force when the Tories took a harder line on immigration at the end of the 1970s. The growth of the BNP has come as Labour have opened the immigration floodgates again - but I suspect they too would soon wither if immigration policy were again seriously tightened. Meanwhile, BNP votes will continue…
Old news Gabble and news is not even a word.
135. “when all and sundry (decades late of course) are obliged to admit under freedom of information that it saved the economy of the whole UK in the late seventies and beyond”
*citation needed*
138 Gabble, how’s the bloated toad McShane today?
138.Gabble, cut the bold print, and you did this story last night. Why bring it up again now, not enough news to be going on with today?
127 - Its all over the BBC News as we speak.
It may be a dog whistle to BNP voters, it may be a response to the exposure of the Tory Euro anti semites.
Kuenssberg reporting that the “facts they used to make their case have been undermined”
Gwynfa makes an excellent point up thread. He/she should really develop it into what could be an entertaining weekend style article. If the Tory victory is really as emphatic as most polls suggest then the devolved assemblies could well become powerful bolt holes for Labour talent. I suspect one of the reasons that Ken wants to sew the Labour nomination up for 2012 so far in advance is that the candiddacy and indeed office will look far more attractive post 2010.
I’ve often speculated on a “Grand Bargain” in wales where a cameron government is remarkably benign towards a law making powers refferendum and further devolution settlement in return for the Westminster delegation being cut back. I imagine Welsh Labour will be banging on for massive extra devolution as soon as its not them in Westminister that the power is being devolved from.
89. Plato.
What is AWG?
Is it the same as AGW?
I like and respect Gove but he’s seriously blotted his copybook on this one:
“In a letter, the Conservative schools spokesman, Michael Gove, had asked about alleged links between the schools, the Islamic Shakhsiyah Foundation, and Hizb ut-Tahrir.
He also claimed he could find no record the schools were properly registered or had been inspected by Ofsted.
In reply, Mr Balls gave links to the published registration entries and gave details of Ofsted’s reports.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8379070.stm
145. Ahem you say
” Kuenssberg reporting that the “facts they used to make their case have been undermined” ”
her twitter says…
“Ed Balls responds to tory allegations about Muslim schools - says claims are unfounded - a nasty spat unfolding this afternoon”
139. Clearly you missed post 110 in this thread:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/24/now-the-detail-from-last-nights-pb-poll/
146.”I imagine Welsh Labour will be banging on for massive extra devolution as soon as its not them in Westminister that the power is being devolved from.”
YS, I thought that was a very clear game plan in both Wales and Scotland right now. A kind of Labour swan song.
147. “What is AWG?
Is it the same as AGW?”
Climate change sceptics seem to have suddenly fallen completely in love with that abbreviation. At least it’s better than the alternative - I can’t keep a straight face every time Melanie Phillips starts wittering on about “warmists”. Presumably the sainted Ms Phillips is. as we speak, shivering away in Coldists’ Castle.
gabble, it would appear that you are as retarded as the individual who wrote the xmascardgate story and are unable to do even the smallest amount of research.
http://shop.conservatives.com/product97311/merry-christmas-cards.aspx
I see tim is repeating his claims about Kaminski again, I’m surprised he still has enough fake anger left to spew out.
149 - On the BBC News Channel .
149.”a nasty spat unfolding this afternoon”
No surprise there, interesting to see the way that Cameron and his team seem to be undermining Balls. Has Balls had any particularly nasty run ins with members of the Shadow Cabinet Cabinet in recent years. Is my memory playing tricks on me, but I vaguely remember things get heated between him and George Osborne?
146 I think the over-representation of Wales will be dealt with in the 10% cut in MPs, independent of any discussion on Welsh devolution.
152 Coldist’s Castle
:-)
150. Now that is funny. If you are going to get outraged about THE WAR AGAINST CHRISTMAS check your facts first.
148 But Gabble, you are missing the point. Gove is not primarily interested in whether the boxes have been ticked by Ofsted. He is asking whether public funds have gone to a school with links to an extremist organisation.
I think you may well find that the front pages tomorrow make this point quite forcibly. In particular, from the BBC article:
the school has written to the council to say it “no longer has any links with any of the individuals who are alleged to have connections with Hizb ut-Tahrir”.
So it is admitted that the school did previously have such links.
A scandal, is it not?
156 - I’d choose Gove over Balls every day of the week.
But it looks like Michael has dropped one on this issue.
137 Erm…
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/25/climategate-hide-the-decline-codified/
“WUWT blogging ally Ecotretas writes in to say that he has made a compendium of programming code segments that show comments by the programmer that suggest places where data may be corrected, modified, adjusted, or busted. Some the HARRY_READ_ME comments are quite revealing. For those that don’t understand computer programming, don’t fret, the comments by the programmer tell the story quite well even if the code itself makes no sense to you.
To say that the CRU code might be “buggy” would be…well I’ll just let CRU’s programmer tell you in his own words…”
Just for the hell of it I went to the anagram server, and ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’ anagrams to -
POOR WILL NON-MATCHING GARBAGE
Academic study for LibDem Voice predicts a hung parliament…
http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dem-voice-publishes-exclusive-general-election-prediction-16869.html
156 - He has a clash with Cameron in the House of Commons a few years ago.
Cameron was reading out how bad our finances were or something, and Balls shouted “So what*” from his sedantry position on the government benches.
And Cameron replied “You’re minister for Children, you don’t have to act like one”
*To their eternal shame, Hansard from pressure from Ed Balls changed it to “So weak”
160. How exactly?
152 Oh no! Typo indicates SPLIT in scientific concensus!
Thatcher was responsible for it all
136. Tom, NS oil is outside territorial waters but by common consent belongs to the country whose own waters lie nearest to it. Hence the UK collects what’s in the western North Sea, Norway the eastern and Holland, Denmark etc what’s in the southern sector.
If all the countries claiming access to that oil were in the EU, there would be only one “country” whose sovereign waters abutted the oil fields, namely the EU. Why would the EU not deem the oil to be a common strategic resource, and, well, expropriate it?
They could even have a vote on it, like we voted on Lisbon, and on who our President should be.
Voila, no more Scottish oil. Just EU oil.
Of course you’d get your quota. What’s 5 million divided by 300 million? That would be your quota.
145. The facts of the case are largely irrevevent in this case. Of course some resercher will be shot if they have seriously buggered it up however this is about the symbolism.
Even 2 years ago raisng this at PMQ’s - an arena beloved of the media narrative framers if ignored by Josephine Public - would have triggered a spasm of comment and debate.
Cameron would have had many of the big guns of the liberal left trained on him asking if it was ” Prime Ministerial ” to do this. It would have echoed of that ghastly ” Foriegn Land” speech by Hague. Its a sign of how the tent pegs of respectability are shifting to reflect what has happened on the ground.
I wonder if cameron is thinking of the point perhaps 18 months in when everyone thought it was all over. However he knows interest rates may have to go up to choke off the mini bubble that all the printed money is going to cause. A short, sharp shock with a surge of mortgage difficulties and money comming out of the economy at exactly the wrong time. Like a methadone patient being reduced at twice the comfortable rate.
If I were him I’d be buying some BNP insultaion as well.
166 - Simples..!
AGW = Anthropogenic Global warming.
AWG = Altered Garbage warning
162, Wrong, giant phallic boomerang
136, if the CRU data is unreliable, other independent climate scientists should have noticed it didn’t tally with the evidence. They clearly didn’t, which calls their competence into question.
Whatever the FOI act legalities, hiding their data is a serious scientific offence, because it makes it impossible to check their working. Any climate scientist making excuses for the CRU is thus being highly unprofessional. Whatever their own stance on global warming, they should not tolerate that kind of behaviour.
CRU isn’t the only example, of course. Similar things have happened in other fields - but that is no excuse.
137.
Lots of evidence for AGW? No, sorry it is an evidence-free zone. CRU and GISS have been the main purveyors of ‘evidence’ and both are fixed.
why right wing people are sceptics? because
- the AGW agenda has been run by watermelons who want to use it to achieve centralised power, and right wing people react against that
- the AGW agenda is ideology, and the left likes ideology a lot
- conservatism is traditionally pragmatic and looks at the evidence and the cost-benefit. so, along with real scientists, right wing people rumbled AGW some time ago.
164.TSE, yes, I do remember that run in. But I think Balls and Osborne have exchanged heated words elsewhere in Parliament outside the Chamber. I cannot put my finger on it, but I felt that Cameron’s questions today on this issue go to a wider strategy than we onlookers realise just at the minute. The C4 debate between Balls, Gove and Laws was particularly interesting to watch. There is a real and palpable dislike there between Balls and Gove these days, its all looking quite nasty.
Climate research unit - Lies manure architect
137. It seems to much of the global warming debate is about ‘beliefs’. You talk about evidence, but there isnt any.
#clue# a model is not evidence.
Prosecution: your honour, i submit this model that we the prosecution devised to prove that Mr Johnny did in fact commit the crime
Defence: how can you be sure this model proves my client is guilty?
Prosecution: The model quite clearly shows that your client was on an upward path to criminality, and over the next few years will commit a further dozen crimes.
Defence: What is the data that you ahve used to determine this path of criminality?
Prosecution: If you think we are going to give you our data you must be mad, you will obviously find flaws in it
Defence: What about the modelling algorithms? Can we have those?
Prosecution: Of course not. Your honour, the defence is clearly trying to subvert the consensus that his client is guilty, we believe that he should no longer be allowed to challenge our evidence.
161 Or perhaps this gives more confidence to those who believe that AGW is a dead cert and the data sets are beyond doubt.
“Well, dtr2cld is not the world’s most complicated program. Wheras cloudreg is, and I immediately found a mistake! Scanning forward to 1951 was done with a loop that, for completely unfathomable reasons, didn’t include months! So we read 50 grids instead of 600!!!”
Why is anyone doubting this is a crock of sh*t?
If it were about swine flu vaccine it’d be all over the press.
171
The AGW cabal went on the attack against independent scientists, getting their grants removed and worse. Many of the long-standing critics are retired.
Not the only example? well, you would be very hard put to find anything on remotely this scale or turpitude without getting into tinfoil hat country. What were you thinking of?
164: ‘To their eternal shame, Hansard from pressure from Ed Balls changed it to “So weak”’
Ah yes, we also had the bizarre spectacle of the BBC’s John Pienaar trying to help Balls out in the immediate aftermath by claiming that Balls had yelled ‘Swot!’ - supposedly a taunt at Cameron’s academic prowess. Though we were never to hear that line again once the governments spinners had settled on the ‘So weak!’ option.
It depends entirely on what their unweighted sample of voters by past voting behavious is.
Mori have produced the following:
2009
Smallest Conservative lead 6% (15/11)
Highest yearly LibDem poll 25% (29/7)
Lowest ever Labour poll 18% (31/5)
Equal highest yearly Conservative lead 22% (31/5)
Highest yearly poll Conservative 48% (15/2)
Lowest yearly Others poll 7% (15/2)
2008
Highest yearly Conservative poll 52% (14/9)
The three highest Labour polls - 37% (11/16), 37% (26/2), 38& (23/1)
The last Labour lead 1% (23/1)
The three lowest yearly LibDem polls - 11% (11/12), 12% (16/11), 12% (14/9)
2007
The highest Labour lead 13% (26/9)
Equal lowest yearly LibDem poll 11% (10/10)
2006
The highest yearly Conservative polls - 41% (30/5), 41% (18/6)
The highest yearly LibDem poll 25% (22/4)
2005
The largest Conservative lead 9% (12/12)
The two largest Labour leads - 13% (20/6), 13% (18/7)
The highest yearly LibDem poll 26% (23/5)
And probably a few other outliers I haven’t spotted.
Mori certainly creates talking points but I wouldn’t base your betting strategy on their polls.
It’s not worth voting on what they will come up with next. It could be absolutely anything. They just seem too volatile a pollster in all honesty.
159. Richard Nabavi
Gove’s alarm was based on his inability to find records of registration and Ofsted reports for the 2 schools. He got it wrong and has now exposed his leader.
The tories nasty smear campaign is unravelling, as we speak. A poisonous cocktail of terrorists, schoolkids and government money - they just couldn’t help themselves.
177, off-hand, there are various cases I’ve heard of palaeontologists hiding specimens from their rivals, so they can have a lifelong monopoly on research into key species, without fear of contradiction.
That’s not remotely as serious as what CRU appear to have done - it has no implications outside their narrow field - but it is the same kind of offence against scientific ethics, showing such behaviour is not unprecedented.
181.Gabble, out of interest can you answer one question for me. It appears that Gove had contacted Balls about this, did he get a reply?
136, if the CRU data is unreliable, other independent climate scientists should have noticed it didn’t tally with the evidence. They clearly didn’t, which calls their competence into question.”
Robert, I think you may be missing the whole point, the CRU REFUSED to disclose their data, models and reasoning. Oh and blocked everyone but their mates from the peer-review publication gang. Nice.
Even when pressured by FOI requests they hide their stuff or said the dog ate it.
That’s why the leaker/hacker did what they did. It was a last resort.
Read this chronology for the back story experience of one FOI requester.
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/willis-vs-the-cru-a-history-of-foi-evasion/
137 Edward
* Why do people assume that the CRU affair affects the AGW situation in any way? There is a lot of other evidence for AGW.
The “other evidence” may be of the same quality as CRU’s, or indeed may actually be CRU’s, i.e. fabricated and with inconsistencies hidden, suppressed or massaged.
* Why have those who deny AGW now put so much weight on one piece of evidence as opposed to all the others?
Not “one piece of evidence” but 61MB of evidence actually, and the issue is that CRU doesn’t know where it got its data from, cannot reproduce it, illegally connived at avoiding sharing it, questioned the data instead of the theory when the former didn’t support the latter, connived at subverting the peer review process so that only those who agreed with it could get reviewed and published, persecuted editors and journals who published sceptics’ articles, and issued non-denial denials when rumbled. Oh, and the “consensus” turns out to be not thousands of scientists but about 40, all groupthinking, all in touch with one another. And they did all this on public money.
That’s the issue. What are “all the others” that outweigh this list of concerns? Remember, “data” and “peer review” don’t count because both have been systematically corrupted.
* Does the CRU data, in their opinion, prove no AGW?
The data is fabricated and / or unreproducible, so it scarcely matters what their opinion is; CRU data and CRU opinions are both of equal value. That is, none.
* Also, why does denial of AGW correlate so strongly with right-wing political beliefs? None of the top 10 conservative bloggers in the UK believes in AGW, which is remarkable given the proportions among the population as a whole. Does this imply that denial is an important partisan signal?
Why does denial of global cooling correlate so strongly with left-wing beliefs, particularly the totalitarian nature of greenism compared say to Soviet Communism, which collapsed shortly before greenism rose?
Most people don’t believe AGW. Since “scientists” have just demonstrated that their opinions don’t deserve any special deference, because they’re so dishonest, the majority view of AGW should prevail.
I give it two years before CRU is closed.
183. He’s just about to, according to Nick Robinson.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/11/prime_ministers.html
Someone needs to show Gove how to use Google. It would have saved himself and his leader some considerable embarrassment.
181 But Gabble, Gordon Brown was the barman who mixed up the poisonous cocktail of terrorists, schoolkids and government money in PMQ’s today.
181 Gabble Gove’s alarm was based on his inability to find records of registration and Ofsted reports for the 2 schools.
Don’t be absurd. Do you think Gove spends his time checking the Ofsted records of every school in the land?
His alarm was no doubt based on reports of links - which have been admitted by the school, as noted above at 159 - with individuals who are alleged to have connections with Hizb ut-Tahrir.
175, 176. Re the AGW exaggerations - and I’ve mentioned this fact on here before - there is a curious echo of the Aids alarums of the 1980s.
Twenty years ago, some people, mainly on the libertarian right, questioned whether AIDS really was going to kill hundreds of millions of people, as the authoritarians insisted. Of course, the brave or foolish souls who doubted the “Aids agenda” were characterised as “nutty” or “wicked” by the tims and Gabbles of that time.
Two decades on, we discover that the Aids campaigners really did make most of it up - as they now themselves confess. Aids was never likely to sweep through heterosexual western society, and the doctors knew it at the time, but that didn’t stop them and their fellow travellers warping the data to fit the politics.
” By 1998, Pisani writes, it was clear that “HIV wasn’t going to rage through the billions in the ‘general population’, and we knew it”. In fact this was already clear when the British government launched its notorious “tombstones and icebergs” publicity campaign in 1987: as I wrote at the time in The Truth About the Aids Panic, “There is no good evidence that Aids is likely to spread rapidly in the west among heterosexuals.” However, more than a decade later Pisani and her colleagues continued to exaggerate both the scale of the epidemic and the threat to people outside well-recognised high risk categories…
“Pisani explains how she and her colleagues manipulated the figures, presenting them “in their worst light”. They “did it consciously” to foster public alarm and squeeze more money for prevention campaigns out of governments and donors. What was once characterised as the good lie of the “Don’t Die of Ignorance” campaign (which Pisani briskly dismisses as the “everyone is at risk nonsense”), Chin describes as a “glorious myth”, justified by the goal of promoting public anxieties about Aids and sexual restraint. Yet, as Pisani concedes elsewhere, “lies are lies whichever side of the political spectrum they come from”.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/may/24/booksonhealth.politics
For Aids then, read AGW now. It’s just another way for authoritarians, i.e. lefties, to boss us around.
186.”He’s just about to, according to Nick Robinson.”
I bet he his now!
“The tories nasty smear campaign is unravelling, as we speak.”
Eh?
188 - Gove has just done an interview on R5.
I think he was hinting that he got his info from the Centre for Social Cohesion.
184, read between the lines. I’m saying that no matter what their motives, for CRU to hide their data was unacceptable. That’s hardly supporting them.
Even assuming, for the sake of argument, that their motives were pure, and putting the best possible gloss on their actions, they were still well over the line. Considering that their colleagues elsewhere, at best, where blind, to this, their credibility too is questionable.
Or, more succinctly, even after bending over backwards to give them the benefit oft the doubt, I still find them guilty.
This doesn’t necessarily mean their is no global warming - that would be a leap too far - but all the evidence, and raw data, should be thoroughly and independently re-evvaluated.
Of course what probably happened was that other scientists noticed the problems but the global cooling deniers screamed “Heretic! Racist!” at them (insert vicious epithet of your choice) to make them shut up, and were largely successful.
For example, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has repeatedly, embarrassingly failed to rise consistently, even though it’s supposedly being forced by human CO2 emissions. This kind of thing undermines the Chicken Littles rather badly, but a torrent of abuse, bullsh1t, pseudoscientific technobabble, and threats has usually been sufficient to silence any professional scientist daft enough to mention it.
192 I notice that you haven’t responded to the observations made about the dubious nature of the CRU’s data sets.
As someone well known here for championing the importance of scientific integrity - what are your views?
188. Richard Nabavi: “Do you think Gove spends his time checking the Ofsted records of every school in the land?”
If you’re going to accuse a school of misappropriating public money by posing as a front to an extreme Islamic organisation, the very least you could do would be to read the reports of official bodies that had had access to that school.
I said at the time that Cameron looked pretty shoddy during PMQs. Gove looks even worse, now.
189- How dare you challenge such well-intentioned lies, you neo-con wingnut George Bush clone!
189. “It’s just another way for authoritarians, i.e. lefties…”
I know what you mean. Oh for the good old days of libertarians like Franco, Salazar and Pincohet.
Has the Telegraph been sued or asked for correction over the claims they made about these schools and some the individuals involved with them?
“The foundation’s lead trustee and “proprietor” of the Slough school is Yusra Hamilton, a leading member of Hizb ut-Tahrir and wife of the group’s main press spokesman, Taji Mustafa.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6475214/Council-suspends-funding-to-schools-linked-to-Hizb-ut-Tahrir.html
Islamists who want to destroy the state get £100,000 funding
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6427369/Islamists-who-want-to-destroy-the-state-get-100000-funding.html
That is pretty hard hitting unequivocal stuff, not a lot of maybes / allegedly’s in there.
185 - I give it two years before CRU is closed.
An investigation will be announced, there might be a couple of token resignations, the CRU will have its mission and budget reviewed and all will carry on. It’s too late for governments to back off on the global warming thing merely because it might not be entirely true - and it’s a great way to make tax hikes ‘morally virtuous’.
So far this has not hit the MSM big time, and it is a complex story with many facets, not lending itself to a 60, 90 or 120 second segment or simple headline on the news.
Remember Creation Science? Not a science and totally debunked, now back as Intelligent Design - merely because AGW may have been shown to be junk science doesn’t make it unattractive to believers.
Written question mentioned by Gove on R5L:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmhansrd/cm091110/text/91110w0039.htm#09111081002571
196 ‘I said at the time that Cameron looked pretty shoddy during PMQs.’
Gabble, you use that line at every PMQ’s.
“read between the lines.”
You’ve lost me on that one.
You said “if the CRU data is unreliable, other independent climate scientists should have noticed it didn’t tally with the evidence. They clearly didn’t, which calls their competence into question.”
And they did or tried to and were systemacitally shouted down or declared as heretics - they were deliberately excluded from the peer review process so they had no voice or status within their own COIN.
James Kelly - ”libertarians like Franco, Salazar and Pincohet.”
All authoritarians. Try again.
204. God, I do hope that’s not a serious comment. It’s difficult to tell sometimes!
What a biased man Steve Richards is, mentioning the polls that fit in with his personal views but not the Angus/Reid one with Labour on 22% only 1% ahead of the LDs.
196 Gabble - But you are evading the central question, by claiming that the issue is whether the Ofsted records were correctly filed and the right boxes ticked.
Feel free to continue along that line. The public - quite properly - won’t be in the slightest bit interested in it, except perhaps inasmuch as it may shed light on inadequacies in Ofsted’s procedures. What they will be interested in is the central question which Cameron raised, which so far hasn’t been answered, namely: were there links between the Islamic Shakhsiyah Foundation and Hizb ut-Tahrir?
Cramer makes an interesting point, BNP members are not allowed to be things like teacher, due to their extremist views, even though they are members of a perfectly legal democratically elected organisation.
Hizb ut-Tahrir members on the other hand are allowed….
Of course it’s serious. The suggestion that Franco was anything other than an authoritarian would be a joke.
209. Er, yeeeees…..
206 I find it very hard to believe that political journos do not visit pb.com every day or more so - it’s like a very sophisticated news aggregator service for free.
198. James, I take your point. My original post said “authoritarians, who these days tend to be lefties….”
I elided it for reasons of fluidity - and to provoke.
But we are both correct. In the past you were just as likely to find authoritarians on the right as the left. As you accurately say, the Caudillo Francisco Franco was hardly known for his laid-back attitude to tromboning.
But today, the main urge to authoritarianism is - surely - from the left. Whether it is nanny state lefties badgering us into recycling our yoghurt pots every Tuesday at 8am, or big state lefties deciding we cannot be trusted with a vote for our own Euro prez, it is definitely the left which now believes the State Knows Best and Authority Must Prevail.
I think this is rather sad. There is a grand tradition of rebellious and rumbustious freedom-loving on the left.
When did it die?
Ah, I get ya. Apologies.
:blushes:
134. Mori was pretty well spot on with its final forecast in the 1987 Election. It gave the Tories a lead of 12% - the result was a lead of 11.8%
212 Seant T “When did it die?”
In the UK, on the 1st May 1997.
Want to ask Gordo a question?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/5live/shows/the-weekend-news/get-in-touch/
I am a signed up member of the Tory herd.Just for today .
Yesterday someone posted a link showing how in the run up to the election Labour were severing links with sensible moderate Muslims; the sort who abhor the likes of Hizb ut-Tahrir.
I’m glad Cameron has raised the issue of funding going to extremists. It neatly links 3 areas on which Labour are vulnerable: Afghanistan / immigration and the perception that they are soft on terrorists. I want the Tories to crack down hard on the Islamists and stop all the pussy-footing around / general appeasement of some very nasty people indeed which Labour - to their eternal shame - have done over the last 12 years. I just don’t see how this can play well for Labour: all this nonsense about our boys having to fight in Afghanistan to protect us from terrorists while at the same time they have an open door immigration policy for those terrorists, fund them while they’re here and pass laws making it impossible to deport them. Labour are already seen as the party of immigrants. Disastrous for them, IMO, if they’re seen as the party of those immigrants most likely to produce people who want to blow us up.
199 - Spot on !
Notice the statement from Haringet effectively concedes camerons point - “we are waiting for confirmation that all links have been severed”. That is stating that indeed there were links - exactly and during that time the school received funding from the taxpayer.
I am amazed at how sanguine the MSM are with this story and how readily Balls explanations ae accepted and not probed.Just eplace the name of the organisation with the loathsome BNP and can anyone imagine that this would not have been headline news today and no quarter given to the Govt on it. I am fed up with the lazy journalism that goes on these days where Govt Press Releases are read out as fact.
tim/Robert from Sheffield - thought you’d appreciate this comment in the AGW computer model code…
“Here, the expected 1990-2003 period is MISSING - so the correlations aren’t so hot! Yet the WMO codes and station names /locations are identical (or close). What the hell is supposed to happen here? Oh yeah - there is no ’supposed’, I can make it up. So I have :-)”
http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.anenglishmanscastle.com%2FHARRY_READ_ME.txt
I was told that Aids ceased to be a major problem when it was realized an everyday application of Vaseline in the appropriate areas would keep the chaps away.
I’ll get my coat…
203, consider the context. Since I was replying to a comment about AGW supporters outside the CRU, there’s an implicit restriction to that field in there.
Spelling it out ‘those other AGW-supporting climate scientists who are not part of the CRU should have noticed it [i.e the CRU's data] didn’t tally with the evidence they had,’ subject, naturally, to the assumption, for the sake of argument, that the other groups were honest.
We can then conclude that the other GW-supporting research groups were either naive or partisan - to make explicit what I originally implied.
219 - You just seem to be spamming for your rather one dimensional blog.
Oh well at least this will cheer Gordo up,
Obama will attend Copenhagen summit before picking up Nobel peace prize
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6931737.ece
Pass the sick bucket.
The phone rang during the 6pm News, unless I missed it,the schools issue at PMQ’s wasnt even mentioned.
Surely the political event of the day is the revised GDP figures? the ONS was widely rubbished at the time re its 0.4% estimated contraction and although it has been revised down to 0.3% they have basically been vinicated. People had got bored of the recession and decided that it was/should be over however it wasn’t quite.
So the lagging indicators will lag a little longer and well passed polling day. I entirely appreciate that the next figures showing a return to groth will lead to a media inspired feel good factor and sentiment is important.
However it won’t *feel* like growth for ages. Indeed post reccessionary christmas and the VAT increases it might be the glumest January for years.
224 - Why doesn’t that surprise me.
I notice that Clegg leak, which was actually much new news, seems to being buried as well.
222. So weak.
223 - That award just makes me feel sad.
222
tim, an unworthy comment . When it comes to “one dimensional” your hypocrisy knows no bounds.
225 - But MacGabble told us that it proved that the moderate recession was passing more quickly
On a serious note, absolutely right, we were told going to be out of recession, then told just wait for the revision lots of activity since the early data collected etc etc etc. Today has just confirmed this was a load of tosh.
199 Those are pretty damning articles. How on earth was Brown not briefed about this-a quick read through is all that is needed to see how explosive this story is.
222. tim, did you just accuse someone else of being one-dimensional?
*stifles laughter between dewy breasts of Laotian concubine*
219 Or perhaps this - ignoring huge periods of history when they don’t ‘fit’ ?
“; we know the file starts at yr 440, but we want nothing till 1400
; we know the file starts at yr 1070, but we want nothing till 1400
; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1991, which is
; (1990-1400)/10 + 1 lines (since 1991 is on line beginning 1990)
Does that sound like a strange way to model historical data? It does to me.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/25/climategate-hide-the-decline-codified/#comments
224.MTF, I made a point of watching it tonight to see if that particular story or PMQ’s would be ignored by the BBC news. I thought the whole 30 mins was more revealing by what it didn’t cover.
234
I am out at college tonight, they might be doing some digging for the main news at 10pm? We will have to see.
a bientot
232 - It’s Father Mackenzie to Plato’s Eleanor Rigby.
“All the lonely people, where do they all belong?”
Muslim school accused of extremist links hits back at David Cameron
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/25/muslim-school-criticises-david-cameron
Sorry… copy/paste error
Another surprisingly candid article from Monbiot.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/nov/25/monbiot-climate-leak-crisis-response
I am starting to develop a sneaking respect for him. Grrr.
Of course he is wrong in his conclusion. The onus IS on the warmists to prove their case, because they are the ones with the extraordinary thesis, asking the world to entirely change its behaviour - and spend trillions in the process. THEY are the ones who HAVE to prove their case, unimpeachably.
All else is secondary.
But anyway, credit to the Monbiot, for at least acknowledging the prob.
222 Still waiting for your response to this ‘conspiracy theory’…
*tumbleweed*
Oh I forgot - you are a farmer, school governor, expert on micro-EU parties, DoH swine flu preparations, when front bench Tories will die and the value of their estates…
“Writing the words of a blogpost that no-one will fear / Such an obvious smear / Look at him typing / Pushing his theories about Cameron, Osborne & Hague / But the detail is vague…”
224: ‘The phone rang during the 6pm News, unless I missed it,the schools issue at PMQ’s wasnt even mentioned.’
It was on the BBC London News. One school said it had sacked a trustee who was married to an extremist, the other school said it had an extremist trustee but it wasn’t a problem, Balls said everything was hunky dory, Gove said everything wasn’t hunky dory, some government office or other was investigating. Hope that clarifies matters.
237
Wibbler you missed this bit..
In a statement, Haringey council, the local authority covering the other ISF school, said: “The school wrote to us on November 20 stating that it no longer has any links with any of the individuals who are alleged to have connections with Hizb ut Tahrir.
237 Unless the Guardian have missed out the most important bit of her statement (always possible, of course), the head teacher hasn’t actually denied the links which Cameron referred to.
243 - And that in itself confirms at least part of the story i.e public money was given to a school, whose running at the time of the hand out involved individuals with connections to Islamic Extremists.
The fact they don’t now, or claim they don’t, is somewhat beside the point.
236. tim, you really don’t do self awareness, do you?
You speak of loneliness and the pb community. Personally, my heart goes out to that Eleanor Rigby of a commenter who, for the last two years, has spent 18 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year, year in year out, commenting on pb.com, apart from his one single Mister Bean-esque weekend of holiday in…. Bury St Edmonds.
Poor tim. Poor poor timmy tim tim. The Nowhere Man.
239 Blimey. He has cojones - either he has serious ethical feelings or is smart enough to jump ship early.
I suspect he has the former.
WOW - Monbiot goes the whole hog
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/nov/25/monbiot-climate-leak-crisis-response
“apart from his one single Mister Bean-esque weekend of holiday in…. Bury St Edmonds.”
Wasn’t much of a holiday, he was posting on here all friggin weekend apparently “cos the weather was bad”….
Tony Blair ‘was told 10 days before Iraq invasion that Saddam had dismantled WMD’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230824/Iraq-fourth-WMD-risk-list-inquiry-hears.html#ixzz0XtmEHotM
I didn’t watch Baron Sugar’s maiden speech, but it sounds pretty awful
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/nov/25/lord-sugars-maiden-speech
This might explain some of the BBC’s sluggishness today
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/25/bbc-news-pre-digital-age
248. Hasn’t Norman Tebbitt moved to Bury St Edmunds? Perhaps it was tim who dumped the wine bottles in his garden.
EXCLUSIVE: the Mandelson and Gadaffi shooting party
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5572073/exclusive-the-mandelson-and-gadaffi-shooting-party.thtml
Good old Mandy…..man of the people….
One of Camerons central claims that the Pathfinder scheme funds had been used to fund the schools in question seems to have fallen apart.
He also said Mr Cameron was wrong to suggest they had been given money from the Pathfinder scheme.
He told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme that both Slough and Haringey local authorities, where the schools are based, had told him “categorically” that “the only funding they’ve received is for the care of three and four year old nursery care”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8379070.stm
Phillip Blond coming up on C4 news
Sadly doing his religious schtick I suspect.
164. It was ’so weak’ though, and I’m not fan of Balls.
Love Mike’s condescending comment on the politics.co.uk website, as if anyone’s actually taking notice of his non BPC polling project.
254 (cont)
“We are waiting for evidence from the school that the reported connections have been completely severed,” he said.
Rod Liddle in decidedly un-PC tone:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/rodliddle/5552353/muslim-savages-update.thtml
254
There’s the strawman. New Labour doesn’t change its spots. We might have given them money, but it wasn’t *pathfinder* money, so that’s alright then.
254 - Interesting, as reported by the Telegraph….
The Shakhsiyah Foundation spokesman said the government money, from Whitehall’s “Free Entitlement” and “Pathfinder” programmes, had been claimed by parents on behalf of the school.
HOWEVER, a spokesman for Haringey council, which administered the grant, said this was incorrect and that the foundation had applied for the money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6427369/Islamists-who-want-to-destroy-the-state-get-100000-funding.html
258 -If these schools turn out to be Hizb fronts I’ll take Goves side in this.
258: Labour buying votes and none too fussy about whose votes they buy, regardless of whether it puts the rest of us at risk.
Looks like virtually nobody other than the unions wants to give Labour any money,
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/_media/images/graphs/q3-2009/Donor-type-per-party.gif
259 (cont) So who is telling the truth, the Foundation with dodgy links, Mr 4x over-claim my mortgage Balls, Haringey Official speaking to the press 4 weeks ago, or Haringey official reporting direct to Balls?
260 tim - They may not be Hizb fronts, but as far as one can tell from the non-denials, they are (or at least were) linked to Hizb.
264 - I’d like to see Goves evidence.
He didn’t sound convincing, and he usually does.
254 tim
Pathfinder funding WAS used - Ed Balls admits it.
I quote, directly from Ed Balls’ letter:
http://www.newstatesman.com/pdf/EB%20letter%20to%20David%20Cameron%20251109.pdf
The New Statesman, of course, bizarrely takes this admission that Pathfinder funds were used to finance these schools as evidence that David Cameron was wrong:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/cameron-tahrir-pmqs-letter
262 - The most interesting figures are those for the minor parties (Q3 2009):
UKIP £86K (of which £12K non-cash)
Green £76K (of which £2K non-cash)
BNP £14K
They’re going to need to raise a lot more than that to make a good stab at contesting large numbers of seats.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-finance-analysis-Q3-2009#DA
259. Extraordinary story. Another one of Labour’s excellent legacies: schools where kids are taught Arabic from the age of 3, infant girls wear burqas, and the children learn that shariah is the Only Way.
How delightful.
263 tim is just really sad and projecting onto others.
He’s labelled me as a Tory, BNP apologist, someone who wants to sleep with Rush/Glen, AWG conspiracy theorist…?
I have to say that as a 3x Labour GE voter I find this rather amusingly delusional.
267 - Yes I noticed that and thought UKIP better start sweet talking Wheeler to stump a wheelbarrow load of cash up pretty soon otherwise they won’t be able to fight the GE nationwide.
Could have interesting effect, as the polls seem to think Others are going to get a significant proportion of the vote. Gotta be on the ballot paper first!
269 - Is that sleep with Rush/Glen concurrently?
246. Er, you do know that by your own admission you’re on top of a beautiful woman. Don’t you have anything better to do than post?
253. LEAVE MANDY ALONE
Obviously this gun-happy young man is allowed in polite society, for whatever reason (oil?) To single out Mandelson for associating with him is going light on all the other high-ups who seem happy to rub shoulders with the son of an admitted terrorist.
266 - I think Cameron may have got his Pathfinders confused.
http://younglondonmatters.org/ecminlondon/pathfinder_pilot_initiatives/partner/91/34yearoldpathfinders/
267 - Considering Q3 was just after Griffin and Brons were elected as MEP’s, looks like the BNP havent used their election as a springboard to raise more founds. I wonder why that is.
273 tim
Yes, possibly… it is a bit sad that ‘pathfinder’ is so overused now that it is even mocked by The Thick of It.
I wonder if Hizb-ut-Tahrir are a fourth sector organization?
275. Presumably its purpose is to “inspire people out of poverty”?
266: All this shows that this sort of nonsense funding should stop. No more Prevent money and the like to so-called community groups, whether from central or local government. It’s mostly a racket. I’d go further and stop the establishment of any Islamic schools funded from abroad and any Islamic schools whose purpose whether stated or in practice is to create Muslim students rather than British students who happen to be Muslim. It is dangerous nonsense to permit the creation of institutions designed to prevent the assimilation of the one group whose presence in Britain has, in recent years, caused the most problems. The likes of Hizb are like the Militant tendency - so you need to stop giving them the opportunity and money to spread their poisonous message. Banning is not enough. Depriving them of funding and places to operate is also needed; above all creating an atmosphere which is hostile to those who, frankly, are our enemies instead of the naive-multicultural-let’s-all-be-friends-mush we’ve had from Labour.
Climategate rumbles on. This is actually two days old, but it’s the first time I’ve read it (having been in the surprisingly non-deforested jungle and all):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/22/cru-emails-may-be-open-to-interpretation-but-commented-code-by-the-programmer-tells-the-real-story/
266 Surprised by Balls reaction - he closed down Baby Peter PMQs controversy quickly by acting in hours to change story from Gordon puts his trust in internal Inquiry to “Balls acts to set up new inquiry, calls for heads to roll”.
Here he has made matters worse by prolonging the argument - keeping “Government funds islamist schools” storyline alive.
152
“Climate change sceptics seem to have suddenly fallen completely in love with that abbreviation.”
Actually no James, anyone who has had anything to do with climate studies on either side of the argument has been using the ‘AGW’ acronym for years. Or are you suggesting that the correct usage of a term is now somehow a new line of attack?
275 - It looks like it
http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/preventingextremism/pathfinderfund/
Oh dear.
Surely Cameron didn’t confuse a programme to combat extremism with a nursery places scheme.
278
Its actually almost a week old now Sean. Its just that the mainstream media were very slow to pick up on it so it only seems like yesterday.
279 - Strange how we are talking about Haringey Council yet again…
281, and if he did? Does that matter compared to the Government using taxpayers’ money to fund schools run by a Hizb ut-Tahrir front organisation?
Confusing identical names, or funding Islamic lunatics with public funds…. hmm, tricky one.
253.That is quite an amazing little nugget of information. What exotic company Mandelson keeps. Now if he had been a member of the Shadow Cabinet who spent half an hour on a yacht with a Russian oligarch in the company of Mandelson it would have been top of the news cycle. Utter incredible.
#167
I am sorry but I find this difficult to take seriously-other than to say that if by some weird logic you are correct then we have the definitive reason why Norway will never join the EU.
272. Correction. I was involved in some “Gladstonian Outreach” earlier this evening, but now I am slothfully sprawled across my hotel bed, reading about climategate, and sipping scotch.
If I sound annoyingly smug, apologies - it’s cause I just discovered that Genesis Secret went into profit, in Germany, quite recently - they BACS’d me a fat wodge of cash, out of the blue, today.
I like writing international thrillers. It’s like creating a literary Von Neumann machine for making money.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine
285 Mandy’s safe though, Lord Rothschild is on the board of Sky so a Murdoch ally.
I do wonder what the Rothschild’s European cousins think of it though?
287. You can splash out now, go upmarket, those $10 hookers are not good for the soul.
I don’t trust anything that comes from just one section of the political sphere, in this case ideas on climate change from a section of the right.
Support for climate change happening has supporters from across the political spectrum, as opposed to those from a more narrow section who are virtually all its opposition. If those who support the latter position cannot get broader support then there is likely to be something irredeemably weak in their case. A lack of evidence for their case being the major one.
Isn’t this kinda of a quite a big revelation? Or have we given up caring?
Iraq inquiry: Tony Blair told ‘days before invasion’ WMD had been dismantled
Tony Blair received intelligence that Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction had been “dismantled” 10 days before Britain invaded Iraq, the inquiry into the 2003 war has been told.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/6652310/Iraq-inquiry-Tony-Blair-told-days-before-invasion-WMD-had-been-dismantled.html
289. As regular readers will know, my charity
http://www.save-the-really-hot-ones.com
already deals with only the most nubile, sorry, deserving of cases.
Tory plans for ‘no notice’ school detentions
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/6655368/Tory-plans-for-no-notice-school-detentions.html
More ecofascist lies emerging.
Here’s how CRU manually altered raw data to conceal the fact that it was hotter in the 1940s than it is now.
Charmingly, the code used to do this was commented “fudge factor” at the end of the line.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11518
So - the data was false, the analysis was phoney, the peer review was rigged and corrupt and the outputs worthless.
That’ll be trillions of dollars please.
Ker-ching!
290. That’s like saying “I don’t trust these critics of Nixon, they are all Democrats” about two weeks after the first serious revelations of the Watergate Conspiracy.
Twitter the hashtag #climategate and see what the mood is, out there.
290
Thats a very strange way of doing science UKPaul. I wonder if we should have discounted Einstein’s work simply because most people didn’t agree with it or understand it?
Scince is not a beauty contest. It works by follows a strict set of rules. Break those rules and what you are doing is not science.
Very clearly by refusing to allow their data to be used to provide repeatable confirmation of their findings the CRU and GISS advocates of AGW are failing utterly as scientists.
Why the odd sized bands?
293 - When was “notice” required for things like detentions introduced?
When I was at school, not exactly in the dark ages, we could be put in detention, sent litter picking etc, either at lunchtime or after school then and there.
298, caning should be brought back. The only way for us to have a truly excellent education system is to hit children with bits of wood.
290. That’s a post that has ‘I simply don’t want to believe what I am hearing’ written all over it I’m afraid, Paul.
‘Consensus’ opinions are frequently wrong, in many spheres. Assuming a certain scientific viewpoint must be right because you like the political background of its supporters is staggeringly unscientific.
300, *cough*BrownIronChancellor*cough*
‘Consensus’ (majority at least) until a few years ago.
299. An unimpeachably lefty friend of mine said just that the other day: bring back corporal punishment. He reckoned the only way unruly boys, in particular, would learn to stop being revolting was if you clouted them.
I’m not sure he’s wrong. Just hit them until they stop doing whatever it is they do.
I should note he is now a concerned parent of a ten year old daughter, rather than the funky libertine bachelor freelancer he used to be.
@ ukpaul
Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had. Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science, consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.
(http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-ourenvironmentalfuture.html)
Which of CRU’s results “are verifiable by reference to the real world”?
Which are “reproducible”?
Epic fail.
290 - the issue of ‘Climategate’ is not whether global warming is real or not, but the facts (and they are now facts) that -
some of the data is either now unavailable, incomplete, or missing
the absolute refusal to allow anyone to look at the raw data
the modelling has been rigged to produce a particular result, and the data assumed to be wrong when it doesn’t fit the desired conclusion
the circumvention of the usual ‘peer review’ process
attempts to silence any critics
frantic attempts to delete emails etc when requested under FOI statutes.
That’s not right wing, left wing or any other wing - it’s just junk science and should be exposed for what it is.
290.I don’t trust anything that comes from just one section of the political sphere
C’mon man - That is way beneath you to say something that dumb. That’s called sooting the messenger.
69 - errm Labour promised to ban Hizb but has yet to do so.
Instead of banning them they give them money ^ scratches head ^
304 - or even ‘SHOOTING’
Just thinking back to school days, we were also asked to sign an agreement / contract between myself / parents and the school, rights and responsibilities kind of stuff, from possible punishments to the fact the school could demand I play sport for them ahead of a club.
Isn’t that something that the very well thought of Ray Lewis school also makes people who want to attend sign up to?
181 Gabble
How could Michael Gove possibly be expected to know about secret Ofsted inspection reports? And why are inspection reports secret anyway? According to Ed Balls’ letter to Michael Gove:
http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/news/content.cfm?landing=ed_balls_responds_to_michael_gove_regarding_the_islamic_shakhsiyah_foundation_schools_in_slough_and_haringey&type=1
306. I was going to mention that. Accusing the messenger of blacking up is potentially libellous.
305 - In fact Sky going on this now - Labour promised to ban Hizb in 2005
Whats this about Mandelson i’m hearing on sky??
Oh dear
310 - They aren’t running the jolly shooting party with a terrorist story are they?
309 - particularly if they get black balled
304. I’m afraid we see in Paul’s post in microcosm what the problem with the whole GW debate has been - that there is a very large body of people who desperately want to believe that the theory is true, because it chimes with deeply held views about the nature of modern society. Some of these very intelligent people are willing to suspend their critical faculties entirely in order to support their belief in this theory.
290 Try looking at this for why the AGW argument leaves us wondering why they wanted to hide their modus operandii and results
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/the-people-vs-the-cru-freedom-of-information-my-okole%e2%80%a6/
or perhaps this one that gives an insight into the very poor data quality that developed nations are about to spend trillions of ££££ on?
And here’s more.
http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2009/11/data-horribilis-harryreadmetxt-file.html
290. wow. You base your belief in a scientific theory on the politics of who supports it? Science isnt a democratic process, it isnt a consensual process, in fact, it is quite the opposite, many scientific advancements have come from people on the fringes of the scientific communities, or those entirely prevented from being a member of one.
Quite a few people unable to approach the climate change debate from anything other than the usual way. I’m looking at it from a different angle. I said that anything that isn’t getting support has a big problem and it isn’t enough to repeat that ‘it’s *other people’s problem*!’
If you are unable to convince people, given that you believe you have all the evidence on your side, then you must step back and wonder what is wrong with your argument.
Talking of Einstein, he was proved right because he provided proof, give me the proof that there is no climate change and then you will convince many people and then you will be in the majority. If people believed that light travelled at different speeds they needed *proof* that it didn’t.
290. SeanT
Nixon was a person and, as such, essentially unknowable.
I’m talking about *ideas*.
300 - See all of the above, you misread it totally. People may complain about what is scientifically correct but unless you convince people then your ideas are not accepted. It’s the scientific equivalent of ‘count the votes’.
Someone on vote2007 makes an interesting point:
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=3849.0
He’s not changing his belief but wow is he taking the flack
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/nov/25/monbiot-climate-leak-crisis-response
317. An interesting one, but a stupid one. It’s just being deliberately bloody-minded to complain that portraying a white person as an ape is racist.
317 - Reminds me of the time I took wound up a member of the stop war coalitions when I said, hold up, your poster is homophobic.
316 Eh? So is it about left vs right or science/proof?
317 I’m not sure it is, really. Historical context tends to be quite important for language and imagery.
300. Quite true about consensus. I would heavily suggest that the consensus view would have it that, heavier things fall faster then lighter things, despite some old bloke in a beard discovering that this was distinctly untrue, 400 years ago.
313 - Again, you just don’t see the argument.
You. Are. In. The. Minority.
People don’t believe you…
Convince them then the game changes.
This is not about wanting to believe anything, I don’t know, I look to those who do know. The truth is that you’ve been losing, ask yourself why and, if you can’t stop losing, then have a damn good look at why you are doing so and change the way you play.
I’m trying to take this away from the science (so that it becomesworthless to try the usual argument, which is getting npwhere). The question is why are you losing and what are you doing to stop this?
It’s very disappointing to see these people responding to my original post ‘I am right, you must believe me’ arguments. It’s the same attitude which has condemned you to being in the angry minority role that you are playing up to on this thread in the first place.
315. Quite. Cf The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, by Thomas Kuhn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift
A scientific paradigm is particularly hard to shift, even if demonstrably dubious, if it is supported by the religious/political establishment of the day. That’s why Galileo nearly got himself killed for challenging orthodox Christian views of the universe.
Likewise, a modern scientist will find himself branded a denialist or a crank if he challenges AGW, thus jeopardising his career and livelihood.
316 The global warming debate isn’t about whether the earth has heating and cooling cycles from time to time - we know that it
does.
The question at issue is whether or not - and if so how much - human activity has affected this.
What these emails etc have told us is that the ‘evidence’ is at best flawed and manipulated, at worst useless, and is no base for any conclusions or action plan.
It does NOT - repeat - NOT tell us that there is no such thing as global warming.
It merely says that in answer to the question of the effect of human involvement - WE DON’T KNOW - and we have no evidence to show otherwise.
316 - Paul, I do think, you’re applying the viewpoint of the scientists when it comes Evolution vs Intelligent Design debate.
Whilst I might agree with the scientists in the evolution debate, doesn’t mean I agree with their interpretation of Climate change data.
“290.I don’t trust anything that comes from just one section of the political sphere
C’mon man - That is way beneath you to say something that dumb. ”
You don’t believe the power of majority thought?
Really?
When an idea is widely believed the onus is on those who oppose it to stop that being the case, if the opposition is not a broad church then their power to change is severely hampered.
277, I’m all for stopping ALL funding for ALL faith, religious or other similar schools. I certainly don’t think the State should be permitting the setting up of any more “schools” which could indoctrinate children with sectarian quasi-philosophical ideas.
Look what’s happened in N Ireland. It’s easy to get a job. Just don’t mention which school you attended!
308 - If inspectors are sent into a school to do an emergency inspection (usually following allegations of abuse or bullying, but in this case extremism) and find nothing wrong, then I don’t think the allegations would normally be publicised.
I’ve got a sinking feeling with this story that the two most able politicians in the Tory Party have made a comic book error worthy of Grayling.
‘I’m trying to take this away from the science’
Well that says it all, doesn’t it? First we are told the science is unimpeachable, now apparently it isn’t about the science but something to do with how the presentation of arguments. What a load of unbecoming waffle.
316
Sory Paul buit it doesn’t work that way and you know it. It is for those providing the hyopothesis to show that it is correct and repeatable scientifically. If they cannot then they have failed and need to go back and come up with another hypothesis.
The sceptics don’t actually have to do anything. It is not they who are seeking a change in the whole nature of our economies or vast sums of money from governments to support their research. All they have to do is point out that what is being proposed fails on basic scientific grounds.
317. I thought of that the moment I heard of it.
Darwin was right
http://www.wpclipart.com/world_history/Darwin_ape.png
We are ALL apes, irrespective of skin colour. I can’t see why the Obama photo is more “offensive” than any other….
314 - Looked down the front page and those are just gainsaying what somebody else has done, where do they give the evidence that the opposite is happening? I’m sure it’s there, I just don’t know where those posts are!
324. There is more than a touch of the Flat Earthers about that argument.
The climate is changing. Everybody knows it. They can see it out of their windows. Alternative views need proof.
The Earth is flat. Everybody knows it. They can see it out of their windows. Alternative views need proof.
What is true is that everybody who watches the BBC (who made an editorial decision to favour one point of view) and government sponsored adverts has been told that the climate is changing, and many of them will have believed that.
That is explicitly not the same as these people being convinced by any rational argument.
My prediction for the next poll:
Con: 38
Lab: 29
Lib: 22
328 - The fact is that the evidence used to back the whole AGW movement has been shown to be bogus.
Does that mean that there is no real evidence out there to support AGW? No - it may well be possible to find evidence to support the hypothesis.
AGW is being pushed as ’scientific’ and must therefor be judged as such. It has failed that test.
It’s not a matter of belief, whether it was exposed by the left or right wing, whether a majority of people ‘believe’ or not - the evidence backing the AGW claim to date has been show to be bogus and manipulated. The simple fact that they will not let ANYONE view the data tells you all you need to know. If independent scientists are not allowed to repeat the calculations and confirm the conclusions it is a travesty of science.
310.”Whats this about Mandelson i’m hearing on sky??”
Floater, any chance of elaborating?
ukpaul, what do you say to this: we wouldn’t even be having this debate if some brave soul hadn’t hacked into the UEA emails and spilt the beans for all to see?
Why wouldn’t we be having this debate? Because the warmist scientists tried to conceal the data, and *altered* the data they did have, and refused FOI requests, and attempted to silence their opponents, etc.
Why did they do all that if their science is so obvious and rigorous we must immediately spend £100trillion to ward off AGW?
You are simply avoiding the issue and falling back on the “consensus” argument. Tut tut. You are normally sensible.
And I should be in bed. I am hacking into the database of dozing to reveal the zipfile of zzzzz. Nnnite.
328
“When an idea is widely believed the onus is on those who oppose it to stop that being the case, if the opposition is not a broad church then their power to change is severely hampered.”
Not true. The onus is always upon those proposing a hypothesis to show it is acurate by being repeatable. Science does not require proof to refute a hypothesis. All that is required for the hypothesis to fall is for it to be unrepeatable or to fail to show there is not another equally valid reason for the observed effect.
Under your criteria the belief in god in Western Europe prior to the twentieth century could be considered to be scientifically proven. It was certainly an idea that was widely believed but that doesn’t make it right.
If we do not follow basic scientific principles then we come down to who has the loudest voice, the most power or the most money. Hardly the right basis for the advancement of scientific knowledge.
Oh and to add to the climate change debate. I’d rather something was done about it now and it made no different / we were wrong than we sit back, do nothing and then put future generations at risk and potentially destroying this planet. Regardless of global warming, we are too careless and whatever the right tries to protest we need to stop now.
“the evidence used to back the whole AGW movement has been shown to be bogus.”
Has it? I think that’s reaching an awful lot with these emails. Certainly, some sharp practices and downright dishonest behaviour on the part of some people, but all the evidence put forward is bogus? Hmm……
322. The problem with saying that context is all-important is that it means that anyone can interpret anything in the way they want to. There are no standards at all - just every individual’s opinion.
332 - You don’t change the status quo by sitting back and doing nothing. I’m suggesting points about the politics of this, because that’s where the decisions are made.
Just saying ‘look at the science’, is missing this crucial point (see 331)
326 - Totally agreed, it’s the human element; so why are governments more sure?
Crossword time again so hope stjohn’s about (or someone else with a cryptic mind)
Worryingly and obstinately braved different point (7)
330. it had told them “that it no longer has any links with any of the individuals who are alleged to have connections with Hizb ut-Tahrir”.
“We are waiting for evidence from the school that the reported connections have been completely severed,” he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8379070.stm
So, the “I stopped beating my wife yesterday” statement is not worthy of investigation or comment?
Poor effort.
341. This comment should be kept in a special pb reliquary, reserved for remarks of Exceptionally Embarrassing Stupidity.
346 - it’s amazing how some people can’t actually see that the school is fully admitting it used to have links with these people. That’s the whole basis of the accusation, and yet for some reason Balls is telling us black is white.
342 A lot of the policies put forward by the green lobby are just good sense - increasing renewables, recycling and lowering pollution, is going to increase quality of life, help with rising energy costs and energy security and help with rubbish disposal.
Another silly conspiracy for tim.
New Zealand - official climate figures shown to be rigged. When data re-run no warming evident.
This from the official data (which the daft sods allowed into the public domain).
Oh, and if you read the linked pdf file one of the perpetrators worked at… guess where?
http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=550&Itemid=1
“The problem with saying that context is all-important is that it means that anyone can interpret anything in the way they want to. There are no standards at all - just every individual’s opinion.”
As far as I know, there are societal norms that tend to operate. Yes, you come up against differing interpretations, but it’s not, as you seem to be implying a case of millions. See for example the use of P*ki in the UK and in the US; it’s racist here due to past use, but not in the US as it wasn’t a word used that way.
We had a discussion here a few weeks ago of 1984, in which Orwell develops a language devoid of historical context. Something to bear in mind I think.
324 UK Paul - the argument isn’t Climate Change, it does and in last 12,000 years has changed significantly, with periods of warmth & greater rainfall intersperced with periods of cold and drought.
In the Holocene Climatic Optimum the North Pole was 3-9 degrees warmer, the equator about what it is now, maybe 1 degree warmer. Sea levels were higher, the northern hemisphere deserts woodland and grassland (the Green Sahara dotted with lakes). It all changed, the climate does.
The argument is that there is evidence from the detailed records we have since early/mid 20th century that something unprecedented is happening, that mankind is having a significant impact and that a major if not the major component is release of greenhouse gases, reduction in the natural carbon sinks through agriculture.
If it’s man made we could, if not reverse at least mitigate it, be the masters of our fate. That will be expensive, disruptive and may slow advances in third world countries at the cost of unnecessary deaths, prolonged poverty and blighted lives.
That cost is high, but if the science is right it may be lower than the alternative. The least we can expect is that the science is rigorous, peer reviewed and subjected to proper scientific scrutiny. There is evidence that among a group of highly influential scientists this has not been the case.
dDoesn’t mean AGW isn’t happening but does need to be addressed.
Never posted before but thinking about this dreadful government with the other half tonight. We came up with our top ten hates, as follows
1. Mass, uncontrolled immigration
2. Going to war on a lie (the wife feels particularly peeved about this as she told everyone who would listen, “surely he (Blair) would not lie about that???”)
3. Sending soldiers out without the proper equipment
4. Bloating the public sector (again, as a teacher she knows all about that)
5. Borrowing during economic boom (what the Hell?)
6. Presiding over (and encouraging) a massive credit bubble and doing nothing except referring to “Prudence” ??
7. The quite appalling dumbing down of our education system.
8. Favouring spending on Scotland more than the rest of the UK
9. Selling our gold at a ridiculously low level and announcing it beforehand - I know people go on about this but we are sick to death of hearing that this second rate academic and party hack was a”great Chancellor”
10. Worst of all, telling us they are the only party “which cares”.
And just a note to Tim, do you actually talk to the ordinary people whose cause you profess to espouse?
Evening All. So who is going to be attending tomorrow nights get together?
341. That is an admirable sentiment but “doing something” = spending my tax money on what you very honestly state as your own personal preference. You have my absolute blessing to give all your capital to a fighting fund, covenant nine tenths of your income to it, and even arrange for one day a year of unwatchable telly in support of “Planet in need” but leave me out of it. You want a clear conscience, you pay for it.
344
“Just saying ‘look at the science’, is missing this crucial point”
Well no actually because that is what the AGW advocates and politicians have been saying for years. Every week we hear the claims thaht the overwhelming majority of the scientific community believe this. And we now know that an important element of this was based on falsified evidence, manipulation of data and a perversion of the peer-review process.
Even if you want to forget the emails, try looking at the annotated code which was released with them (annotated by the - seemingly blameless and apparently unhappy - computer programmer who was being asked to apply corrections to the data before it was used in models.)
A quick example
;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940]
;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
(…)
;
; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)
densall=densall+yearlyadj
There is pages and pages of this stuff - all apparently genuine - whch shows a wholesale modeification of the raw data to make the trends fit the hypothesis.
I DON’T LIKE THIS
The climate change debate is forcing me to respect George Monbiot.
I miss my old world where I could regard him as an arrogant idiot who was angry that people who didn’t sleep on mattresses full of money were still able to buy airplane tickets.
The paradigm shift is hard to handle. This must be JUST LIKE when Copernicus figured out that the Earth was not the center of the universe, only possibly more psychologically scarring.
335 - Aha, so it’s the BBC and world governments that are the key!
339 - I’m quite happy to see the emails (although the libertarian in me hates the idea of the private becoming public).
I’m putting the ‘consensus argument’ because it’s what isn’t being addressed, it’s there and it’s not going to disappear unless it is. All of the ‘why don’t people believe me?’ posts/blogs/articles are a heap of nothing unless you convince enough people to reach a tipping point (and the main people who matter are those who wield political power, why aren’t you shouting at Cameron non stop to change his mind for example? That’s the profitable route to go).
346- so in other words there were connections and the Conservatives were right to raise this and be concerned.
348 - I’d wait for the evidence to come out if I were you.
At the moment it appears that Britains next Prime Minister has confused a nursery places scheme with a project to combat Islamist extremism.
353 - Me!
359 - Give it up Tim
Cameron was using a report from the Centre for Social Cohesion as the basis of his questions
He knows what he is doing - and doesn’t need the likes of you trying to ‘help’
349. “increasing renewables, recycling and lowering pollution, is going to increase quality of life, help with rising energy costs and energy security and help with rubbish disposal.”
Renewable energy, good idea in general, although wind power is perhaps the worst option.
Reduced consumption, good idea in general.
Recycling and rubbish disposal, maybe not. There are some interesting economic arguments around this.
As an example, scientists in the Antarctic use paper plates and burn them because that consumes less total resources than heating water to wash plates.
For years, computers and other consumer electronics were thrown in landfill. The price of gold means it has become economically viable to “mine” the landfill sites now for the connectors out of these devices.
There is an argument (I can’t find a link to the article) that says it would be “better” to put much of the domestic refuse currently being recycled by local councils today in landfill until the value rises a bit, at which point it would become a useful community resource…
James Forsyth at the Coffee House Blog - At last
“President Obama will announce his new Afghan policy on Tuesday night at 8pm eastern time, the early hours of Wednesday morning UK time. Obama will announce a troop increase and the signs are that he will send 30,000 plus in reinforcements. This is welcome, the nearer Obama gets to giving General McChrystal the 40,000 troops he has asked for the better. But the process has done the White House little credit and shown Obama to be even less solicitous of the concerns of his allies than President Bush.
Bob Ainsworth’s said yesterday that a ‘period of hiatus’ in Washington had undercut public support for the war in this country. This is undoubtedly true. For months now, the Brown government has been in a position where it couldn’t say the coalition was winning in Afghanistan but also couldn’t say how the strategy was going to change.
This decision was the first major test of Obama as commander in chief and he has come across as a president who is deeply ambiguous about a war his military is fighting, is reluctant to commit himself and who treats his allies with contempt. Not a good start.”
Bearing in mind that Bob Ainsworth admitted that ‘a ‘period of hiatus’ in Washington had undercut public support for the war in this country’.
Why did Nick Robinson say ‘It’s no coincidence that this comes at a time when the prime minister has had more success in arguing why British troops on the streets in Afghanistan are keeping us safe here in the UK.’ linked@100?
361 - I pointed that out at post 192.
What the pro-climate change scientists can’t bear is the idea that they might be wrong and the hated climate-change deniers might be right, however small that possibility might be. So they’ve decided to make sure it doesn’t happen. That tiny possibility is too risky for them.
339 - Being called ‘normally sensible’ by SeanT? Hmm, have to think about whether I like that or not…
340 - Richard T - politics is the this arena is being played out in, you can’t just fall back on the science and expect to be greeted with open arms by those voted into power.
352 - Ted - I agree fully (and it’s what I hope for) but the ‘debate’ is a very different beast at the moment.
349
I have no problem with being ‘green’ at all. I have no problem with saving energy, water amnd anything else which is a finite or restricted resource. Oil is way too valuable a product to be burning as far as I am concerned.
But… and it is a big but…
what we are seeing in response to the AGW hypothesis is not helping the planet or its people. That was the whole basis of the book by Lomborg. He actually believed that there was some AGW so differed from my position. But what he showed very clearly is that what is being proposed in response to the doomsday scenarios advocated by people like Jones, Mann and Hansen is doing far more harm than good. A case in point is the move to biofuels which has devestated parts of the tropical rainforest, particularly in the far east, and as a result has harmed the Earths’ ability to moderate the climate naturally.
So for you to say that we should be happy with the results even if it turns out that AGW was not true is, I am afraid, not a viable position.
Newsnight tonight,
1) A Newsnight investigation suggests that UK government plans to build a new generation of nuclear power stations to fill the energy gap by 2020 are wildly optimistic.
2) Seems like they are doing a piece on Blond’s new Think Tank.
345 Adverbs
357 They aren’t *private*.
They were sent from UEA/CRU computers and accounts.
The leaked ones contained no *private* conversations - no get a loaf on the way home, I’m running late etc stuff
Have a look at the whole database of leaked emails - there is nothing there that discloses anyone’s private life.
http://www.eastangliaemails.com
Benedict Brogan at his Telegraph blog - Tories go for Mandy-Gaddafi revelation
“The Tories have just put out a statement on the back of a curious item in tomorrow’s Spectator. My Telegraph colleague Charles Moore, in his Notes column, reports that Lord Mandelson was recently a guest of Lord Rothschild’s for a shoot, along with Cherie Blair and Saif Gaddafi, son of the Libyan ruler, whom you may remember escorted Abdelbasset al-Megrahi back to Tripoli in triumph. Lord Mandelson did not pick up a gun, but I’m not sure that’s going to make a difference to those who will be put off by his choice of weekend chums.
This is how Greg Hands sees it on behalf of CCHQ: ‘This extraordinary revelation, if true, raises serious questions for Peter Mandelson. Once again he is mixing up his private associations and his public duties. For years, he has been at the centre of Britain’s relationship with Libya. People will question why the First Secretary thinks it is appropriate to enjoy country house weekends with the man who escorted Al Megrahi home to a hero’s welcome in Libya’.”
As I said friday night, the emails are a sideshow, it’s the code sceptics were after. The code is being revealed bit by bit.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11518
And if anyone has downloaded the zip, there is a pdf which has charts for every corner of the globe. These aren’t the charts in the IPCC reports of course. For each chart, look at the 1940s.
And for an explanation of Mike’s ‘trick’:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7810
370 - They quite clearly were private, they weren’t public in any way, shape or form (private conversation is private, whether about work, play or whatever).
“A case in point is the move to biofuels which has devestated parts of the tropical rainforest, particularly in the far east, and as a result has harmed the Earths’ ability to moderate the climate naturally.”
That’s a particular policy response though, rather than the fact or not of climate change. Fighting climate change doesn’t necessitate growing bio fuels, or forgoing nuclear power for example.
367. Indeed. Also worth noting the arguments in Superfreakonomics. If AGW is real and caused by CO2, then there are “scientifically proven”, cheap technological ideas for cooling the planet, and yet they are not welcomed by the main AGW cheerleaders. Why is that?
341.
Especially for you (and SeanT might find it amusing):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s61-pkrWiTE
A minute or two from a simpsons episode about the new Bear Patrol brought in because of a mass panic over a non event.
375 - Don’t spoil all the fun of Superfreakonomics, Santa’s getting it me for Xmas!
217 - I think that was me URW.
This was the link
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/11/22/principled-politics-ar-over/
Since then they have added
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/11/25/a-peerage-for-abdul-bari/
oh, and this
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/11/25/why-is-hizb-ut-tahrir-receiving-government-funding/
“Cameron, who has promised to ban Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT), asked the Prime Minister why the Islamic Shakhsiyah Foundation (ISF), a charity run by HT members that manages two primary schools and a nursery in London, has received over £113,000 in government grants – a fact revealed by the CSC in the Sunday Telegraph last month. Following the revelations, Haringey Council suspended ISF’s funding.”
Labour promised to ban Hizb…… long time ago now, wonder if they will ever get round to it.
371 - Those stories normally appear before some new photographs of Osborne are released.
Are you a friend of the Rothschilds, Christina?
373. “private conversation is private, whether about work, play or whatever”
Actually my understanding is that almost all conversation for work is explicitly NOT private. It may be protectively marked, but that is not the same thing.
377. Oracle. Sorry!
Did we have any posts about the Iraq enquiry’s reveal today? In a way it’s shocking that Blair and crew deliberately ignored what they were told, but I think many always suspected we were being misled.
Labour’s plan to dismantle Whitehall revealed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/25/labour-whitehall-civil-service-plan
Sounds pretty good, but nowhere near the proposed Conservative transparency revolution. And again, the burning question: why haven’t they done it yet?
379 I am sure she has many friends but I suspect the Rothchilds find yatching in the Scottish waters a bit chilly.
384 - Scottish waters being a euphemism for oceans of whisky?
3823 Sad to say I think people either aren’t interested or they have already concluded the worst.
380 - Can’t say that I agree with it if that’s the case, just one more example of unacceptable snooping to add to the list.
Meanwhile, this could move some polls
Tens of thousands of civil servants may be moved out of London in a dramatic downscaling of Whitehall under Labour plans to cut public debts and instil a culture of “smarter government”.
Leaked sections of a report to be published in a fortnight reveal that the government wants a review into the possibility of relocating some of the 132,000 civil servants and 90,000 employees of “arm’s- length bodies” currently based in London and the south-east.
The review, to be delivered in time for the next budget, would be guided by the principle that only those “required for ministerial support or personal interaction” would stay in the south-east.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/25/labour-whitehall-civil-service-plan
“Tens of thousands of civil servants may be moved out of London in a dramatic downscaling of Whitehall”
Mmm. I still remember the last time they pledged to do that. My then department managed to commission a time and motion study of our stakeholders to make the unarguable case that we needed to be in London. I suspect they’ll just dig it out again from the filing cupboard.
389 - Very Sir Humphrey Appleby!!
384.SallyC, as I said upthread, what exotic company Lord Mandelson keeps.
382 I suspect the drip drip drip of news will actually have a depressive effect on Labour certainity and increae the Lib Dem share - it will effect those who pay less interest to the day to day political world more I would say.
BBC go into anti-government mode over Iraq - BBC News coverage of today (day 2 of what, 400?) fairly critical and spitty.
331- Well, why not take it away from the science. It never was about science after all, anyway. But you also need to ask yourself why scientists have gone to such lengths to hide the truth to begin with, given what a fundamental violation of the very principles of science that this behavior represents. As I have said here before, their funding comes overwhelmingly through government-related channels, and those channels are controlled in one way or another by the left. The church of the left will come down like a ton of bricks on heretics, so the scientists follow the path of least resistance to the trough rather than risk defunding and demonization. Quod erat demonstrandum. Also, this shows why the AGW “consensus” pushed through both government channels and media groupthink is worth about as much as Earth-centered models of the universe were in their day.
Isn’t this also when they end up laying off a load of civil servants only to re-hire them as independent contractors on loads more money?
373 If the emails are private, then I think this is a clear case of the end justifying the means.
However, the body in question is publicly funded and therefore I think there is a justifiable argument that the information belongs to all of us.
390 Well, even Yes PM had an episode about moving civil servants out of London.
It’s a hoary old chestnut.
Also, wonder if the these civil servants will be offered a BBC-esque re-location package?
392 - BBC go into anti-government mode over Iraq
Reading the herd on here one could forget that the BBC ran a 4 year campaign aginst Blair over Iraq.
Watch this “Climategate, Sen. Inhofe, Stuart Varney and Ed Begley Jr”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=429xoDtqS-A
Spot the looney
392 That’s my feeling. I can’t see us have any sort of smoking gun. No big bang news day, even though some of it deserves it.
We will have weeks and weeks of ‘cock up or conspiracy’.
373 You are in denial mode. All correspondence sent during/using work computers belongs to the organisation.
IIRC you said you are a very successful business man, if so I suggest you revisit your internal email policy
388 - so that’s copying Tory ideas for a more effecient CS, and moving jobs to areas where, conveniently, Labour’s support is collapsing. Impressive.
387. You mean you think it unreasonable that an employer should know what is written on an employer-supplied/owned computer at work?
And in this instance the computers are publicly owned and theoretically subject to FOI requests.
395 - So we can snoop on all emails by teachers, nurses, police, the forces and so on? That’s a very slippery slope to start going down.
398. What campaign?
400 Indeed Sally, the news for the next 6 months will have multi-day in any given week including the headline ’smells a bit iffy’
Will stop waverers from 2005 returning to the fold and may well increase anti-government voting in the apathetic but irritated.
ukpaul, you have heard of the FofI act presumably? If so why ask questions as stupid as the one in post 404?
401 - You seem to have someone else in mind totally!
It may belong to the organisation but it doesn’t belong in the public domain, just imagine the field day that competitors would have if so.
Thanks,Floater at 378.
“Also, wonder if the these civil servants will be offered a BBC-esque re-location package?”
Some sort of assistance was mooted last time based on the distance you’d have to move.
373. This “it’s private” doctrine is bizarre.
are there any limits to it? Would it be rude to read Alky-ada’s emails? If we did and prevented another 9/11 would that be not playing the game? Should we have left Harold Shipman alone because of the asolutely confidential nature of the doctor/patient relationship?
Just asking.
385 I think it is the case that the computers from which the emails were sent/received were bought on grants and so from public funds.
Some of the researchers will also have been supported wholly on grants.
The FoI could have been used to get the emails. The University will also have warned employees against the use of University computers for private purposea.
407 - You have an automatic right to see any emails that you want to by these people? There is a legal path and an illegal one.
404. “we can snoop on all emails by teachers, nurses, police”
As pointed out by others, the school probably owns the rights to emails by teachers, the hospital to nurses, the force to the police.
There will be circumstances in which those employers will make those emails public, they would normally be “commercial in confidence”, in the police case they may attract higher levels of protective marking, but they were never private.
408- The issue of competitors accessing data is completely different from an individual’s expectation of privacy.
408 “…. but it doesn’t belong in the public domain, just imagine the field day that competitors would have if so.”
Once a sacientific paper has been published, any details of the algorithms, computations or computer codes used must be placed in the public domain.
It is not unethical to fail to realize material just because you don’t want your competitors to have it
412 - Exactly, there is no automatic right for anyone to snoop on this type of correspondence. They have to have good reason and go through the proper channels.
ukpaul, you would whether you will admit it or not would be pant wettingly excited if someone had hacked into Shells computers and found evidence that they have been falsyfing data to discredit the pro warming camp. In this case the boot is on the other foot, suck it up.
here is another rabid climate cooling denier fruit loop shouting down an infidel….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHATItyOsdY
Perhaps Fox only invites fruitloop Loony Deniers. But surely the climate cooling deniers could find some spokesperson not rabid, looney or behaving like a child.
For some reason they have started citing G.W. Bush.
Re PMQ’s, having read the statement fom the HT, if that is really the prism through which she sees Camerons questions then frankly I am woried about the view on life her pupils are being given.The more I hear about this the more convinced I am that Cameron was very right to raise this whole matter.
Reflecting on this whole matter, why should taxpayers money anyway be used to fund organisations which promote moderation in the Moslem community? I would have thought that this was wide open to infiltration by extremists and in any event just how much credibility do such organisations have within the wider community if they are seen to have taxpayer funding. Might they not just be sen as another arm of the State.
398 - not sure it was 4 years but remind us what the government did about it tim… no matter who got crushed if they were in the middle
411. It’s pretty simple.
It should be private until its in the public interest not to be.
That should be the ‘public’ interest not the Govt one.
And it should be clear public safety interests, not some vague philosphical justification, at least where the private citizen is concerned.
But if you are any sort of organisation advising or involved in advising the Govt/the public - the standard changes and anything showing you have been disingenuous should be fair game.
More Conservative confusion.
The Conservatives may need to rethink their policy on Hizb ut-Tahrir
Obviously.
But, should we take anyone seriously who say thusly.
Cameron and David Grayling have both publicly promised to ban HT - then again, so did Tony Blair, with zero success. Brown claimed today that ‘in the case of Hizb ut-Tahrir, we have investigated and looked at it. It is not a proscribed organisation and if the right hon. Gentleman has new evidence that should make us proscribe it, we shall look at it again.’
At present, any attempt to ban HT is likely to be impractical.
David Grayling?
Is their a more intelligent brother out there brother?
Also.
The Christian Thatcherite right puts the boot in on the Christian non Thatcherite right
Tim Montgomerie on Twitter
* CCHQ say that Cameron will still attend tmrw’s @Res_publica launch but with misgivings at @Phillip_Blond’s “aggressive attention seeking”
Good job there’s a coherent opposition
416 - Was that the case with all of these emails?
Sorry … 416 should have read it is unethical to fail to release material just because you don’t want your competitors to have it.
We have a right to this material because we paid for it.
Once papers are published, competitors have a right to the algorithms and codes.
IRAQ HEARING!
The drip drip of bad daily headlines emerging from the hearing, between now and the election are going to be VERY VERY DAMAGING to “Layaboutbour”
418 - Clearly not meant for me if you’d read the thread earlier.
If people on your particular side behave in that way you need to think about starting to try and reach out to people instead of scratching your head and wondering why people stop listening.
I think you are on a loser with this one UKPaul.
There is always a”whistleblower’s defence” in morality, if not in law. Hacking comes under that imv. I’m sure you would support it if it chimed with one of your causes rather than against it
As far as I can see the emails do not blow a hole in the case for global warming, but do cast a cloud of suspicion over some of the figures and the people producing them.
I remain more than a little bemused by the GW debate. I don’t understand the science so am forced to rely on what I think of the protagonists. Consequently I tend to scepticism mainly because Monbiot et al are so insufferably smug, and you have the BBC saying they do not have to represent the sceptic case, as the arguement is now “proven” - which is just plain patronising. The trouble is the debate doesn’t handle very well people who are in the “tend to” category - it is strictly for foghorn politics.
417. “Snooping” is a complete red herring. Do you spend your working day emailing your intimate mates about your haemorrhoids? Because what most of us do is deal with the business in hand and any emails we send are sent in the knowledge that they will need to be read by our successors/subordinates/superiors/auditors/compliance officers/ holiday cover/sickness cover/colleagues. Calling rhis sort of thing “snooping” is about as sane as thinking that reading a Tom Knox novel constitutes snooping on SeanT.
427
They have tried, believe me. But as can be seen from the emails, there was a very clear policy of preventing anything which oppposed the supposed concensus from getting into publication, up to and including getting an editor sacked from a respected journal for having been brave enough to publish a paper which held a different view.
432 should have been for UKPaul at 429.
New Labour. Best placed to deliver farce…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8379759.stm
423 A general point, not strictly related to this issue, but is it the existance of differing opinions in a party you find so dangerous or just being open about having them?
What a shame so many members of the Labour Cabinet didn’t have one of those dangerous discussions before we invaded Iraq.
427- Your premise is wrong, ukpaul. Here in the U.S. belief in AGW is declining, not growing, which suggests that more and more people are listening to the skeptical side of the argument, while fewer and fewer people believe the Chicken Little crowd.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2009/11/24/ST2009112403099.html?hpid=topnews
Any email sent on public funded computers, by public funded employees is the property of the public.
If these so called “scientists” wished to make private threats and keep their lies secret, they should have kept them to privately funded computers and emails.
They have been caught with their hand, in the till.
They will shriek and scream and squirm - but its too late. The public already suspected it was a scam before this scandal. The public is unlikely to listen now.
I’m genuinely gobsmacked ukpaul that you don’t know that publicly funded bodies are a) subject to the FOI and b) all electronic correspondence is covered by this.
I introduced FOI Act compliance into a security organisation and am very familiar with it’s TOR.
434 - LOOOOL
Sums the situation up rather nicely
434.OMG, is this a Monty Python script?
434 should be front page news.
430 - I’m not bothered in the instance of these emails (as I said to SeanT upthread) “”I’m quite happy to see the emails”.
What was being inferred above was that anyone should be allowed access to private emails if they were from a publicly funded organisation. “However, the body in question is publicly funded and therefore I think there is a justifiable argument that the information belongs to all of us.”
Call me a bit libertarian but that sounds crazy to me, there need to be regulations and a limit to who has an automatic right to see them (employers for example).
As regards the debate, that’s where I stand John also.
430- Given that the people credited with “proving” the case have been revealed as liars and fabricators, the BBC doesn’t have a leg to stand on.
Nick Palmer said something that I semi agreed with regarding Climate change the other day. Which effectively was The case of humans creating climate change may be bollocks but for human health and energy security reasons it is worth it.
I tend to agree that those are two very excellent reasons to change our behaviour that virtually nobody(who didn’t have a very strong vested interest) could disagree with. So the fact that the climate change consensus/conspiracy has some serious flaws regarding the evidence of human contribution to global warming has made changing behaviour harder if anything.
The question is why are they so dogmatic when there were far better arguments(I guess the answer is bio fuels/nuclear power and other measures that will “tackle” global warming but not help energy security/human health)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6931594.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=6848714
‘Gordon Brown was accused of trying to suffocate the Iraq Inquiry today by giving individual Whitehall departments the power to veto sections of the final report.
When the Prime Minister announced the inquiry, he claimed that national security would be the only legitimate barrier to full disclosure in Sir John Chilcot’s report into the Iraq war. A set of protocols published on the Cabinet Office website, however, indicates that a tranche of additional restrictions have been imposed.’
438. Paul seems to be just thrashing around for any old line to take tonight, regardless of how silly or illogical it is.
442 Ukpaul, no one will call you ‘libertarian’.
‘Authoritarian’ perhaps.
‘Libertarian’ definitely no.
Heres some more on Hizb that Labour once decided to ban but errrmmm Gordo said errrrrm errrrrm maybe not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6475214/Council-suspends-funding-to-schools-linked-to-Hizb-ut-Tahrir.html
“Hizb regards integration as “dangerous”, says that British Muslims should “fight assimilation” into UK society and opposes all involvement with the “corrupt” state. It wants to create a global Islamic superstate, or “caliphate”, initially in Muslim-majority countries and then across the rest of the world.”
“Other trustees of the Shakhsiyah Foundation who are Hizb members or activists include Farah Ahmed, the head teacher of the Slough school, who has written in a Hizb journal condemning the “corrupt Western concepts of materialism and freedom”.”
Yep, you read it correctly “freedom” is a corrupt concept according to Hizb.
445.SallyC, Brown trying to balance getting some kudos for having an inquiry while trying to keep some overall control over it before a GE? Maybe I am being too cynical about the whole paint job?
442 I’m a paid up member of the Libertarian Party [just check my blog for the invite to join
] and as you’d expect no lover of big state stuff…
However when I work for the state aka the taxpayer, I expect to be accountable for my time and actions there.
Great night for Fulham 3-0 now!
436 - Tell that to the world’s governments then. If you don’t elect people who believe that then you are powerless.
438 - FoI is an ‘automatic’ right? There are many exemptions and qualifications, as you should know.
You can’t honestly say that all members of the public can demand to see any email without reason.
449 Like all deeply insecure people, he’s a control freak.
Anyone know if the ComRes poll is due out this week, or if the fieldwork has already been done?
448 - from the link
Houriya Ahmed, of the Centre for Social Cohesion think-tank, said: “This suspension of funding is very welcome. It is quite wrong for the British state to be funding groups that want to destroy it.”
Well quite
447 - Says one of the biggest authoritarians on here. I know how much I respect freedom and you are the exact opposite.
Is Davydenko playng amazingly or is Nadal off the boil? I suspect a bit of both.
456. If you think your stance that public servants should be protected from scrutiny is libertarian you have serious problems.
67. Having read the New Zealand temperature adjustments it does not appear that the possibility that the climate change deniers are right is so remote. Iraq, climate change, immigration, no more boom or bust, how can we discern the truth from the spin? Surely there will come a point at which we will not be distracted by the likes of Jedward and the ubiquitous Cheryl Cole? Que faire?
I think ukpaul has fairly Libertarian views. I think he has a bit of a blind spot when it comes to Obama and climate change, but generally he is libertarian I think.
“438 - FoI is an ‘automatic’ right? There are many exemptions and qualifications, as you should know.
You can’t honestly say that all members of the public can demand to see any email without reason.
by ukpaul November 25th, 2009 at 9:49 pm ”
Erm, yes. If you do it on publicly funded time and using publicly owned equipment…
If you want to have a personal conversation, use your own time and your own stuff or an internet cafe - or even wait til you get home.
You all know of the Obama “hope” poster.
Well, we now have the Gordon Brown version “Hopeless”
http://brackenworld.blogspot.com/2009/11/hopeless.html
I also liked the “Gordon Brown countdown” on the right of the page - saying “Labour loses in 198 days 1 hour……….!
Labour out? Thats change I can believe in
456 keep saying it and perhaps you will believe it.
Now repeat after me, “the world is getting hotter”…”but it may also get colder, which proves it is getting hotter”
The Day After Tomorrow was one funniest comedies of the past couple of years. Although not as good as Tropic Thunder, or Idiocracy…
>>>>>>HERD BETTING POST>>>>>>
Arch Warmist and Green Stooge, Old Etonian wanker Zac Goldsmith is 1/2-4/6 favourite to win Richmond Park.
Any Tories on here have a view on Zac “Direct Action against Planes” Goldsmith and his chances of getting into parliament?
331- “Well, why not take it away from the science. It never was about science after all, anyway. But you also need to ask yourself why scientists have gone to such lengths to hide the truth to begin with, given what a fundamental violation of the very principles of science that this behavior represents. As I have said here before, their funding comes overwhelmingly through government-related channels, and those channels are controlled in one way or another by the left.”
So this is the case in Russia too is it? I didn’t realise the KGB kleptocracy were actually secret tree-hugging hippies. Also in China I suppose? I guess the Party pressures its own scientists to come out with views directly opposing its own strategy on industrialisation.
Your sound so much of the time S&S, but occasionally you come out with a rabid hatred of the hidden forces of leftists that are hiding round every corner. It’s just bizarre.
460 - I was just thinking that myself, he is a good poster but on those topics……. something changes
460 I don’t think you can be selectively libertarian. It is like saying “I am completely and utterly non-racist except that I hate the [insert ethnicity]s.
“Erm, yes. If you do it on publicly funded time and using publicly owned equipment…”
You can demand it, but you won’t necessarily get it. There are a number of exemptions.
That said, since FOI came in, one does tend to draft emails as if someone was watching you. No more writing about the nutter who wrote in yesterday……..
453 I don’t think anybody really thinks this enquiry will be anything other than a whitewash, which was precisely why Brown held it, to try stop the Tories having a proper enquiry if they gain power.
442. “was being inferred above was that anyone should be allowed access to private emails if they were from a publicly funded organisation.”
Eh, no. I think there is some confusion because in this context public and private are not semantic opposites.
A private email would belong to the individual who sent it. Almost all email sent on a employer’s system is not private, it belongs to the employer, who retains a right to read it and perhaps publish it.
That does not mean either that is by default public. It is by default protectively marked according to the data security policy of the organisation.
They may choose to put it in the public domain, and in some cases they may be compelled to do so by a FOI request.
446 - I appreciate that anything that doesn’t fit your concept of what be the point of argument should be passes you by. A quick summation of my two points for the evening then -
1) The climate change debate can progress only when the argument goes through political channels being my first point (hardly a difficult concept). That, stemming from my point that you don’t convince people if you have only a narrow range of political support against an opponent with broader support.
2) There should be limits on who has access to what information. There are legal channels so an automatic right to see whatever comes from public employees is unacceptably authoritarian. This in response to someone saying that such information must be available to all of us.
The problem is that there are too many who want to have the same arguments they had previously, in the absence of that they will use anything different as an excuse.
Go and find a rabid climate change guru or an anarchist if you want to have that argument.
464 tim - I think the odds are about right. Being nominally anti-plane is not a negative in Richmond, where aircraft noise is appalling. The LibDems can’t have helped themselves with their ‘postcode tax’ proposal. There’s a good dose of Islington-style Waitrose enviromentalism.
Will tim get to 40 comments on this thread alone, its not that far off.
473. Should we run a sweepstake on each thread?
464 tim - still waiting for your opinion re climategate ‘conspiracy theory’ that you pushed earlier today?
I’m sure it’s just an oversight on your part.
473 - Mike posted once on how many posts tim had made.
Considering his length of time on forum at that stage I was amazed.
Would love to know how many he is up to now.
“.2) There should be limits on who has access to what information. There are legal channels so an automatic right to see whatever comes from public employees is unacceptably authoritarian. This in response to someone saying that such information must be available to all of us…”
The problem with this comes when people hack into your email and reveal that you have been deliberately subverting the FofI process. Read Monbiot if you do not believe me that they have been doing so.
471 Pure wibble.
“1) The climate change debate can progress only when the argument goes through political channels being my first point (hardly a difficult concept).”
Indeed; a concept which it is hardly difficult to recognise as pure 24 carat baloney. I thought Stalin was about the last human being to think that science comes in political flavours. There aren’t any scientific debates which “can progress only when the argument goes through political channels”.
Yes I am pretty much libertarian by instinct but see the way that it tends to the utopian and needs to be tempered for the real world.
As regards Obama, what is the choice? The GOP are way more authoritarian so any support is a matter of degree. For the UK the main party I would least support is labour for the same reason. In my constituency I will vote lib dem but won’t be fussed if the tory wins instead (it’s a tory/lib dem marginal).
As regards climate change, as I said upthread I want to be convinced and the debate has degraded to the state where I get annoyed with pretty much anyone on it. Change the consensus, change the way that politicians view this and, undoubtedly, I will follow. I’m not a scientist and have no personal knowledge of it so I will bow to those who win the argument.
It’s why I was trying to approach the debate from a different angle but it just all ends up going down the same roads again.
Sigh….
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article6931764.ece
General Motors has confirmed plans to cut 9,000 jobs from its European plants, but left the fate of the company’s 5,000 British workers hanging in the air.
Nick Reilly, head of the company’s European operations said that 50 to 60 per cent of the jobs cuts would be in Germany, where around 25,000 of GM’s 45,000-strong work force are based.
465- I don’t expect you to agree with me, Socrates (my aims are much more modest than that), but I would love to hear your own theory on why such elevated scientists would so betray the most sacred and basic principles upon with their profession is based.
Looks like Islam schools-gate is blowing up in Cameron’s face judging by the BBC Ten report. I kind of had a feeling it would earlier. A strange thing to lead on, particularly if he wasn’t 1000% sure of the facts.
471 “…stemming from my point that you don’t convince people if you have only a narrow range of political support against an opponent with broader support.”
Science does not proceed by concensus. This is nicely illustrated by Einstein himself — when detractors against his theories wrote “100 Scientists Against Einstein”, he replied one scientist with an irrefutable argument would be enough.
“There should be limits on who has access to what information”
All the information relating to any scientific argument must be accessible to anyone who wishes to check it. There are therefore NO LIMITS on who has access to any information that is used to build a scientific argument for (or against) climate change. This includes all the details of the computer algorithms used in modelling.
Unfortunately — and I say this with regret as I have almost always enjoyed your posts — everything you have said today reveals a terrible ignorance of how science works.
467 I disagree I think there are degrees of Libertarianism otherwise where would you stop with individual freedom. Equally there would be degrees of authoritarianism or else Labour would have locked us all up not just tried to nick our DNA, film us a every opportunity and have a database for every day of the year.
478 - Do you really think that you are going to convince Cameron without convincing Cameron? You can shout all you like about how the scientific argument is sound but unless you convince those who wield power then…..nothing.
477 - I already said that I had no problem with these emails becoming publicly available. My concern is that, by not having done this legally, we are being opened up to more and more speculative hacks. Yes, it’s their risk but it is, when it comes down to it, still an illegal activity.
The BBC 10 o’clock news was a disaster for Cameron.
Tories got their facts wrong, admitted as much and have now gone to ground.
Utterly disgraceful behaviour by the smearing tories and their apologists on this site. Shame.
Cameron = McBride
“… I already said that I had no problem with these emails becoming publicly available. My concern is that, by not having done this legally, we are being opened up to more and more speculative hacks. Yes, it’s their risk but it is, when it comes down to it, still an illegal activity…..”
which bit of they were subverting the legal process do you need explaining?
470 Nope. If you use your work PC to send emails, then they belong to your employer as they own the asset.
For example - you are in your lunch break and write [using your work PC] to a colleague/wife that you think your boss is an arse.
Your boss hears about this and sends your organisation an FOI/DPA request [data protection act] about every email you ever sent with his name in it.
It will all come out - I’ve had direct experience of exactly this scenario as a by-stander.
Is it too late to expect a Comres tonight?
472 - So you’re saying that the Tory posters on here aren’t representative and won’t want to burn (with fossil fuels) Zac Goldsmith at the stake?
You do shock me, and I thought Climate/Euro sceptism were the driving forces behind people in the real world as well as PB Tories.
By the way Richard, I found out why Cameron and Gove mixed up the nursery funding scheme and the fund to combat extremism.
Grayling passed on intelligence from here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cbbc/mihigh/
486 Gabble. Supreme Irony Alert !!
483 - The science is separate to the more important act of convincing politicians. That is my point! I am not making any point about scientific proof!!!!
I am not talking about the science which I will leave to the scientists!!!!!!!
Do I have to put Martin Day like reams of smilies into a post to get this point across?
Honestly, I’m trying to approach this from a different angle and I just get arguments against a different argument. I’ll keep repeating what I am saying and maybe it will sink in!
486 Gabble I partly agree with you.
But not a disaster just a stupid mistake.
481. I am appalled at the behaviour of some of these scientists. Some of them should be sacked, and any potential illegal activity should be investigated. The Royal Society should also launch an inquiry into the UK’s peer review process to make sure it is being done in a fair and objective manner.
However, that is an entirely different matter from my counter to your argument, and you are merely trying to change the subject.
471 I am not demanding the right to see public servants’ private emails. I am a public servant myself and like many employers, my employer allows me reasonable use of work email for personal purposes. (In fact, it blocks me from webmail services which is a tad annoying.) If an FOI request were to come in about a case which I was working on, I would expect my work emails to be made public apart from those which (a) referred to the personal data of a client and (b) my personal emails to my mates about which pub we are meeting in.
My view is that, as a taxpayer, I own the work done by all my servants and I should have the right to see it.
In fact the attitude taken by many public organisations to FOI is shameful. Had the UEA released the data as requested… well we wouldn’t have needed the whistleblower to release it (and I expect it was actually an inside job and not the result of hacking). The data and codes should have been in the public domain all along… as I believe they now are.
In fact, I believe all public bodies should keep as much data as possible on public websites so the public can view what they are up to rather than have to go through the rigmarole of an FOI request.
For decades, Socialists have attacked industrialised countries and sought ways to level them with the 3rd world.
When the Climate change theory came along it met their requirements. I dont think they believe it - it is just an arrow that landed in their target.
I read a story that says 16 freighters produce as much polution as tall the cars in the world - but nobody is complaing about them.
The whole climate change scam is designed to attack the Industrialised Western World and in particular, the USA.
493 - A mistake or a Livingstonesque bungle while embarrassment at their anti semitic allies needs deflecting.
Hiltons grid said go on the environment this week.
What happened at PMQ’s?
The science comes before … before … convincing any politicians.
It is the science — establishing the scientfic facts — that is more important, much more important, than convincing any politician.
In fact, until you know where the scientific truth lies, it is pointless trying to convince anyone, even a politician.
487 - To undertake an illegal activity to expose an illegal activity? It’s a post hoc justification and a pretty dodgy precedent.
488 Everyone thinks the boss is an arse. Worrying about whether your employees are emailing each other saying so is surely paranoia of the highest order?
Mike, I know you can’t tell us but I’d really love to know who the blithering idiots are who forecast a Tory lead of more than 21%. Or any sort of Labour lead. Oh, and the name of their bookie!
Oh dear, I’ve just watched PMQ’s. It was really bad for Brown today. He was flapping badly by both leaders set of questions. I also want to comment on the Scotland article earlier. My take on the situation in Scotland is that the SNP has been in power for a couple of years. The tide is starting to turn and I expect that will be shown at the next election. In straight SNP - LAB fights I expect Labour to do quite well.
On an entirely different matter, has Salmond not achieved another coup on winning rights over Scottish road signals and traffic speeds? It seems something so petty that I’m sure unionists were happy to sign up to it. However, it is one of those things that will make a real difference. One of the big things that make you feel like you are in another country is the road markings and speed limits. If these changed visibly when you cross the border into Scotland, it will feel like a different country. Another win for the separatists.
re 482 and the interview with Balls where he could barely conceal a grin was truly nauseating.
502 You’re a bit late with that one. tt
499 You are kidding aren’t you? I fear not.
So a burglar steals a video recorder and discovers a paedo cassette in it - and that makes it inadmissible?
504 -I didn’t see the news at ten, did Cameron “Do an Albion”?
8/30 - I’m Lancastrian first, my county right or wrong. After Lancastrian I am British and English. Europe is a continent, a lump of land, I no more feel any emotion for it than I would a dung heap. In fact I’d probably prefer the dung heap, it doesn’t threaten our national sovereignty. I don’t know whether I’m a Celt, would be interesting to do one of those DNA things, but they’re probably all too dodgy.
503 - on past form, it will be 80mph on the Scottish motorways. But only 60mph if you’re English…
One for Tim
Trudie Styler, wife of Sting, donates to Conservatives
Trudie Styler, the wife of the rock star Sting, has donated money to David Cameron’s Conservatives.
Ms Styler’s donation was made to the Richmond Park branch of the Conservative Party. The Conservative candidate in the constituency is Zac Goldsmith, a millionaire environmentalist and friend of Ms Styler.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6655731/Trudie-Styler-wife-of-Sting-donates-to-Conservatives.html
504: the more I see of Balls and his smug visage, the sweeter his Portillo moment will be on 6th May.
I can’t wait…
PM’s letter.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/gordon_browns_letter_to_david_cameron_over_hizb_ut_tahrir.html
498 - And on that I agree, I have said no different. I hope you see what I am pointing out, instead, though. Something separate to the act of proving or disproving a particular theory. Just because something is proved or disprpved it isn’t the most important hurdle. You can look at the history of scientific advances to see that being the case, it is the convincing of others that matters.
I’d be comforted if (and I do follow your interesting posts, especially on Welsh matters) you, or at least someone accepted that this is important. If not then I have to think that people on all sides of the climate debate are just not going to listen to anything, their positions being so entrenched, the arguments so rehearsed, that anyone trying a different path is shoved into one box or another without a cursory glance.
New thread
Interestingly, neither Robinson nor anyone else articulated just what the Conservatives are supposed to have got wrong. I am sorry but I do not believe that Hizb ut-Tahrir should be allowed to have any involvement in schools, publicly funded or not.
nice unbiased intro the newsnight once again
510 - God help us, Trudi “Sack the chef because she’s pregnant” and Zac.
506 - No, but it doesn’t let the burglar off the hook. One crime does not cancel out the other.
You are kidding that you could imagine the burglar being let off aren’t you?
485. I see your problem. You think I have a view I want to sell and should be more sophisticated about how to use the science to sell the view. I don’t: I have no way on earth of deciding the merits of the extremely difficult science involved. What I can take a view on is whether the science is done transparently and honestly in the first place and if hacking exposes fraud, hacking rocks. The science is not a fancy optional extra to the debate, it is the centre of the debate.
494- I’m sorry, but you’re the one changing the subject, Socrates. I’ve offered an explanation for the outrageous behavior that ties it to the obvious motives of money, advancement, and prestige. My assertions, which you find so outlandish and which pre-date this shameful episode, are in no way discredited by the scandal but rather are substantiated by it. You, on the other hand, seem to have no idea why they would have done such a thing. So who between us has a better theory to offer?
Then you do have view on the nature of the debate, as do I. I would like the politicians to approach the matter anew but I know that they won’t unless they are convinced to do so. How do I do that? How do you do that?
That’s the question.
513 “Just because something is proved or disprpved it isn’t the most important hurdle. You can look at the history of scientific advances to see that being the case, it is the convincing of others that matters.”
I don’t agree with this. I don’t see how the convincing of others can possibly come before the scientific proof or disproof.
So, at minimum I don’t understand what you mean — can you provide an example from the history of science?
522 - I’m not saying it needs to come before but it must come. Galileo came up against a lot of vested interests in his being wrong, trials for heresy followed and we know he was right but until this rightness was believed and understood it counted for little.
Maybe there can be cases where the ground is prepared before the science follows, string theory is hardly proved but it seems to have gained remarkable acceptance for example.
The Tory lead will whatever The Observer wants it to be, which will be whatever Brown is ordering for the election result. This is the preparation for a rigged election that you would expect to be seeing, if you have followed the rigging of elections story. First they have to manage expectations so the result they provide seems to be plausible.
The process is far more evil than anyone seems to be willing to believe. But as we say, if they can rig climate data, rig military intelligence, what problem would a mere election present?