What are these doing to the seat calculators?
November 26th, 2009
Could their rise be disguising the scale of the swing?
The big trend from almost all the polls in recent weeks week has been the increase in the share for “others” - UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and SNP/PC in Scotland and Wales. In some surveys they are now more than double the 8.2% that they got between them at the 2005 general election
A question for anybody wanting to bet on and/or predict the outcome is whether these historically high levels might be distorting the standard seat calculators that we use to project how many MPs the parties will end up getting?
With the exception of perhaps just one or two seats the impact of this dynamic in a first past the post system is to reduce the aggregate shares going to the main parties and it is on that last group of numbers that we seek to project seat numbers
Taking England alone it might be an idea for projection purposes only to regard the UKIP/GREEN/BNP effect as being broadly neutral in terms of impact on the main parties and do some rule-of-thumb calculations from there. So you would assume a 2005 level for others and try to extrapolate.
You could see a formula evolving where you take the difference between a current survey’s total for others and the 8.1% of 2005 and divide that between Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems in the same proportions as the headline figures in the poll.
Thus the most recent ComRes poll had C39-L25-LD17 - an “other” aggregate of 19 points or 11 up from 2005. You would then apportion that figure, for seat projection purposes only, in accordance with the three party split.
On a simplistic projection using the Anthony Wells calculator that adds 14 seats to the Tory total. All of this is only a thought and I’m sure that I’m not the only one who has been giving it thought.
The challenge of factoring in the others is another reason why I’m increasingly more sceptical of the much repeated mantra that the “Tories need a 10% margin for a majority” argument. I think that the bar is probably a couple of notches lower.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st?
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Second?
I also think that there is a world of difference between what people may do at Euro elections or tell tell the pollsters compared to what they will actually do in the voting booth at this pivtoal GE. The minor party results are not going to be as high as some predict.
GE’s are about voting in governmments…..or voting ones out.
As a result the default is to assume that come GE2010 these others will not see the scale of vote that these polls suggest.
We may, however be in new territory this time round and they may perform better than before. How much better is anyones guess.
Got to scoot, I have a plane to London to catch then one to sunny Florida for a week of…well surely better weather than thsi country has been having. Today is considered by US authorities as a heightened alert day for terrorist attack because its thanksgiving, so I’ll be watching for gusy who seem to sweating up like a horse at the start fo a race….
The proportion of votes for the minor parties is
(a) collapsing from each European election to the subsequent GE, and
(b) collapsing from opinion polls to election results, but
(c) ratcheting up from each GE to the next
There will come a/some tipping point(s) where some minor parties become “viable” i.e. not “wasted” in some constituencies, e.g. Respect in BG&B and Green in BrPav in 2005. Such viability was gradually achieved by PC and SNP in several seats in the 1950s and 1960s, until they started winning them in the 1960s/70s.
(OT) Nazi invasion of the Ukraine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOhf3OvRXKg#t=00
I understand George Galloway is fighting a neighbouring constituency rather than defending BG&B for Respect; although I don’t know the area at all I would have thought it more likely to be a Labour gain than a Respect hold.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear: humiliating climbdown No.1 for PM Dave:
‘Tories in pledge to hand Holyrood tax-raising powers’
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Tories-in-pledge-to-hand.5858849.jp
Whereas this was Cameron’s line in the summer:
‘No new powers for Scotland until 2015′
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6689936.ece
Oh, what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to decieve.
The Shadow Chancellor’s piece in today’s Scotsman:
George Osborne : Defence of the Union and mutual respect key in debate over powers
The Calman Commission recognises this and devotes much of its report to proposing how it could be sorted out. A Conservative government will take its recommendations forward, if we win the election.
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/George-Osborne–Defence-of.5858861.jp
Calman Commission:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Scottish_Devolution
http://www.commissiononscottishdevolution.org.uk/
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2009/06/15151304
George Kerevan: Independence vote offers only chance for Scotland to plan route to national prosperity
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/-George-Kerevan-Independence-vote.5858750.jp
I suppose that the answer to “What are these doing to the seat calculators?” is “Making them less predictable, just as the rise of the Liberal Party from 1974 onwards made the two-party swing model less predictable”
It is interesting to speculate what the others will do with regard to seats. I very much doubt that the Others will get significantly more than 10% aggregate at the next election. I suspect that there will be big differences seat to seat depending on the character of the seat and whether the incumbent MP is seen as being tarnished by expenses although as we get further on that effect will diminish.
The rise of others doesn’t change the required swing but it can alter the dynamics of how that swing occurs. For instance a 6% swing can be made up of Conservative +6, Labour -6 or it can be more lopsided than that and something more like Con +3 Labour -9. We saw some of this effect in the 2005 elections where the Conservative gains were mostly down to moves in the Labour than substantial rises in the Conservative vote.
I suspect that it would be perfectly feasible for the others share of the vote to double from 2005 without materially affecting the number of seats that are in their column.
Lots going on in that article,OGH.
Inevitably, after the votes have been counted and verified there will be the usual batch of photo-finishes and some clever dick will say “the intervention of this minor party cost that major party a seat.”
In the meantime I think we have to look on the ground rather than in the air, for individual Seats where the intervention of a minor Party is likely to have a decisive effect.
My theory is that the minor Parties will cost the Lib Dems *votes* but may gain them *Seats* when the intervention of the BNP will help them against Labour in the North and the intervention of UKIP may be helpful in their battles against the Conservatives, especially in Seats where the Greens have no presence.
10
read the article. SNP MP mainlining porridge again.
Had to laugh; no real idea how to create wealth just a wish that that the prosperity fairy will land and Dorothy will tap her red shoes and take him to Kansas.
Another thought is if Cameron’s platform to appeal to UKIP and the BNP might be boosted (currently 9% (6+3) in many polls), if he let out a last minute offer of an In/Out Referendum on the EU.
If the MSM keep running the Hung Parliament narrative, in effect threatening to rig the election Glenrothes-style, as polls are not actually indicating a Hung Parliament at all (bar one notorious poll based on 63 Londoners), Cameron might feel he needs to consolidate the eurosceptic vote to push him up to a higher level still.
The election riggers are indicating they will be happy to rig the result by up to 20%, but would they dare rig it if Cameron’s polling share rose above 50%, with Labour and Lib Dem both in the low 20s? Nothing would surprise me, after the nonsense we’ve been seeing in recent days.
15 - Cameron is astute enough not to bother going down that sort of blind alley. If he wanted to appeal more to UKIP then he would have done so by now.
16. That depends. He has set out his stall based on the circumstances he believed he would be facing. He has stated an intention to repatriate powers from the EU, but has not indicated how he intends to achieve enough leverage to be successful in this endeavour.
The reaction from the Conservative Europhiles was the Hung Parliament narrative - that is where it started - coming from Heseltine and Clarke. The whole thing has since been turned into a ludicrous bandwagon, with polls falling into line and all commentators flying to order like a flock of starlings. But if it turns out that the (e)utopians seriously think they are going to rig the election to a Hung Parliament from a likely 100 seat Conservative majority, Cameron must surely respond.
17 - I don’t buy into the idea of some giant conspiracy theory on this. However I don’t see why Cameron would change strategy at this late stage, if I were him I would carry on as before and take the election result when it comes. If it is a hung Parliament so be it, but the quickest way to guarantee that outcome is to engage in silly stunts to try to woo a tiny section of the electorate that is less important than it thinks it is.
Can Mike or someone else explain the logic behind what he’s doing with these numbers and the swing calculations? Maybe I’m being slow here, but I couldn’t follow it.
If I’m reading him right, he’s not saying that the Others shares will actually fall for the election compared to the polls (although as JohnLoony says @5, they probably will) - he’s saying that something will go wrong with the seat calculators when dealing with the drop in the cumulative Lab/Con share, which apportioning some of the Others in proportion to the current Lab/Con shares would fix. What’s the something that goes wrong, and how does assigning some of the others in the way that he does fix it?
Sorry if I’m being dim, but could someone provide an example of what Mike’s getting at?
Dave is far and away the most Eurosceptic choice available on GE day. UKIP will not do well at all. Maybe Farage himself will pull off a spectacular against Berocw (but I really doubt it). There’ll be a hard core Europhobe vote but little more.
BNP? White working class and angry. Angry with Labour for the last decade of uncontrolled immigration or angry with Dave for not being white and working class enough? Not sure. FWIW I think whatever they achieve will be more at Labour’s expense than Dave’s.
Green? Protest voters. Idealists. Likely to be unhappy with all of the main choices. More likely to be fellow travellers with the LDs. Clegg has most to fear of a Green surge.
18. Maybe you accept that Glenrothes was rigged. Many people see it as a classic rigging operation. If you don’t, fair enough. But if they can rig one seat, why not another? And so on.
I would agree that Cameron need only keep the boat steady. But if the rigging programme is really as vast as it could be,(it was vast enough in 2005) that in itself must surely change the whole basis of politics in Britain. Cameron would need to consider his response carefully.
We will see how determined the narrative-writers are in the weeks ahead.
20.Patrick. Offhand I can’t think of any Seats in which the Lib Dems are favourite or strong second favourite where the presence of a minor Party is going to hurt them.
I can think of some where it will help them. Burnley is an obvious example but also there are Seats like Totnes where a strongish UKIP presence can only be useful.
22 URW. Agree. My point was that GREEN votes are mkore likely to eat into LDs than others - but hard to identify anywhere the impact would be meaningful.
BNP and UKIP votes might eat into Lab and Con votes somewhere to an extent that lets the LDs sneak in by a narrow margin. Not sure how many such potential seats there are.
“Cameron might feel he needs to consolidate the eurosceptic vote to push him up to a higher level still.”
Except a harder Eurosceptic line has turned off more voters than it gains in the past. He’d be made to pursue that again.
22 URW. How about all the LD’s most marginal seats where the Tories came second in 2005? Take the three West Country seats – Taunton, Somerset & Frome and Hereford for example. Would greenies not expose them even more to the inevitable Tory surge? Do these sort of seats count in your list of ‘favourite / 2nd favourite’? Are you assuming they’re lost to the LDs already?
- made
+ mad
22. There may be one or two seats where the “intervention” of a Green or Liberal candidate will split enough votes to prevent a Lib Dem from winning, but it’s the same logic as any minor party within a FPTP system: people vote Green or Liberal or UKIP or whatever, because they do not want to vote Lib Dem or Conservative or whatever.
21. The Glenrothes by-election was rigged by a vast secret conspiracy involving 19,946 demented and fanatical Labour supporters who were ruthlessly trying to subvert the correct and true will of the people of Glenrothes constituency. Similarly, the next GE will see a sustained and determined attempt by a secret conspiracy of some 7 or 8 million fanatical and deranged Brownite maniacs to rig and pervert the whole general election, and thus deprive perhaps 200 constituencies of the MPs they really want to have.
- “A question for anybody wanting to bet on and/or predict the outcome is whether these historically high levels might be distorting the standard seat calculators… “
Undoubtedly.
Two of the biggest losers from the next UK GE are going to be Anthony Wells and Martin Baxter. Both models are going to f*** up bigtime.
Wise punters will treat them with huge caution. Essentially, you need to really analyse each seat individually. The only seats where they remain useful are those straight LAB/CON fights, where all the other parties added together are less than 15%. There are gey few of those in England, and none at all in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
25 Patrick. Can only comment on Hereford& S.Herefordshire. Maybe the UKIP presence will counterbalance the Green presence and I am not assuming that one is lost to the LDs.
In truth this is not my area of expertise and there are far better qualified to comment than humble self.
Lots of interesting town Seats in Yorkshire where the BNP can have a decisive effect.
- “the much repeated mantra that the “Tories need a 10% margin for a majority” argument. I think that the bar is probably a couple of notches lower.”
Agreed.
An 8% lead will suffice. In fact, in my purely subjective opinion, I think that the Tories could scrape a majority with a lead as low as 4% Great Britain-wide, cos Labour are going to pile up the votes in seats where they are not needed, but suffer tactical unwind and unfavourable differential turnout in the screeds of English marginals where the next UK GE will be decided, eg: the Midlands.
55. JohnLoony - “Such viability was gradually achieved by PC and SNP in several seats in the 1950s and 1960s, until they started winning them in the 1960s/70s.”
Spot on.
What a lot of non-Scots do not seem to realise is what a long, hard slog the road to re-establishing Scottish self government has been. It really began to pick up steam in the early 1800s. The SNP was eventually formed in 1934, and the Motherwell by-election breakthrough was in 1945, then the Duke of Montrose’s National Covenant was signed by well over 2 million Scots by the early 1950s. Then we had Hamilton 67, the Kilbrandon Commission, Govan, Heath’s Declaration of Perth, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc
The Greens have only come a tiny, tiny way on the journey.
UKIP, BNP, Respect are barely even started on the journey. Can we not just abort BNP before childbirth?
If the vote fragments it will on average lower the % level required to win a seat. Incumbents would do better except for the effects of the expenses scandal. By the time of the GE 1/3 of the Labour MPs will be standing down.
The exception to this is the LDs where Greens stand. The past European and London elections show links of the Greens sucking away environmentalists and protest voters from the LDs.
The LD activists have turned nasty on the Greens in places such as the Norwich by election. Will the Greens now an extra 100 candidates at the GE in LD areas?
31. I keep telling you Stuart - never mind abortions its heart attacks you have to worry about. Beneath the man at the top there is very thin gruel on the quality front in the SNP - remember the Swinney years - or do you still blank them out..
A very good article. Some further thoughts:
1) Seat calculators assume that the main party votes will be distributed pro rata as they were before (uniform national swing). That won’t be true in specifics - it never is - and this time there are strong grounds to believe that it won’t be true in aggregate now either, now that a decisively anti-Tory majority has been replaced by a decisively anti-Labour majority.
2) Who are the others? They are voters who consider that casting their first preference is more important than supporting or opposing a likely winner. The question of who they voted for in the past is simply a subset of point one above.
3) Assuming that the others will remain as high in the polls as they are now seems very dangerous to me. They are going to be squeezed in every seat where it counts. Only alienated left of centre voters are quite likely to vote for others in increased numbers. Brighton Pavilion and possibly Oxford East and Norwich South are special cases.
I seem to remember the margin being 6pts when I first started reading this site… perhaps that was a hung Parliament. Or perhaps people keep shifting the goalposts.
Interesting stuff this.
I tend to agree with John Loony at 5 (although expect the main parties to win in B/PV and BGB)
Until we know how many candidates each party are putting up its difficult to make any big judgements but I do suspect a BNP presence, either new or more high profile, may increase the turnout in the seat they are standing in.
It ouldn’t surprise me if turnout in what were reasonably safe Labour seats last time went up this time.
I’d put money on that in Barking for instance.
Stuart, you say the Greens have “only come a tiny, tiny way on the journey”, compared to the SNP’s march to minority administration.
Well, I agree we’ve got a long way to go, but surely having Councillors, MSPs, MLAs & MEPs elected by PR has provided a partial shortcut? And yes, Councillors in England under FPTP.
14. Alanbrooke
Point of information:
George Kerevan is not an “SNP MP”. Yet.
38
Stuart
point taken, but he’s still miles from having an economic policy.
…and let us not all overlook the likely massive vote for the Monster Raving Loonies in Croydon Central. It’s the Tories’ most marginal seat of all. Could be seeing an upset looming? (although somehow i doubt we’ll be seeing a ‘JLMP’ on the PB threads next year!)…
10.
Re the article - hows that for a brass neck ??
” Semi-nationalised Lloyds TSB Scotland is to be sold to the private sector. Why not hand it over to the Scottish Government as an investment vehicle? Given how much Scottish taxpayers are about to be hit to pay for the sins of the banks, it would be a reasonable return. Ditto with the Scottish rump of RBS.
Of course, that will never happen because the London Treasury wants to sell these banks and pocket the cash.”
A question for Mike and regular PBers. I have heard much about the Tories need 8%-10% swing to get into power. But doesn’t this assume an AVERAGE national swing? What if the Tories (using Ashcroft cash) just target key marginals and do much better in these seats compared to non-marginals? Won’t this affect - quite dramatically - the avearge swing needed to see the Tories in power?
41 - There are people who are determined to live up to stereotypes.
So maybe GB will have saved the world after all.
The news that both Obama and the Chinese premier are going to attend at least some of Copenhagen will give him a chance to strut his stuff on the world stage for perhaps a final time.
Coupled with better economic news on the GDP front yesterday and the bunker must be fairly cheery at mom.
Whether this equates to a bounce in the polls i have my doubt because the Iraq inquiry must throw up questions as to how much did GB know in the whole sorry tale.
New ARS poll on Queen’s speech priorities
http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/11/almost-half-of-britons-want-queens-speech-tradition-to-persist/
Nurse union flees offices shared with ‘Mrs Expenses’ after arson attacks
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23775302-nurse-union-flees-offices-shared-with-mrs-exes-after-arson-attacks.do
“You could see a formula evolving where you take the difference between a current survey’s total for others and the 8.1% of 2005 and divide that ”
You need to address the question being posed not presume the answer. The others total is higher, they won’t stand in all seats of course so the total will be correspondingly lower, but where is any evidence that the others total is comprised of voters who don’t mean what they say?
It’s another example of answering one question when you are being posed another, trying to fit the result you expect to the situation you don’t believe.
There is far too much of that on here at the moment and, on a betting site, that’s a bit weird; you hope that people can stand back and look at the situation outside of what they believe.
You get students who get huffy when they fail, complaining that the same answer got them a good grade previously. If they managed to get it into their heads that they failed because they didn’t answer the question they were asked this time then they’d be much more enlightened.
I’d like to place a bet on George Galloway, Caroline Lucas, Nigel Farage and Nick Griffin all being elected at the next general election. I wonder what the odds are for such a bet?
Totall O/T
It’s just been announced that Anthony Bolton is coming out of ‘retirement’ and going back to managing investor’s money in early 2010. He was/is one of the most respected fund managers in the UK and will be managing a China related fund.
He is relocating to Hong Kong to manage this new fund which makes sense from a manager’s perspective but it occurs to me it is probably excellent personal financial planning given he would be facing Labour’s 51% tax and other pension penalties as well.
I expect many more high profile exits from the UK in the coming months sadly.
None will presumably be mentioning tax as the reason but….
19 Edmund
Mike isn’t saying that the Others won’t drift back. What he’s saying is you’ve got to be careful when you put numbers into predictors- if you just put topline figures into Baxter you still have those massive Others amounts. So for example if we have the latest ARS of:
Con 39, Lab 22, Lib 21 Others 18
you get:
Con 373, Lab 178, Lib 67, Nat 11 Oth 3
If you reduce that 18 to 8, and divide the remaining 10 between the others (roughly 5 to Con and 2.5 each of the others) you get:
Con 398, Lab 162, Lib 62, Nat 8, Oth 2
I presume tim will be spending the next few days researching Baroness Ashton’s past involvement with extremists over the last 30 years or so. I think he should leave no stone unturned in his quest to find all her links with former enemies of this country.
44
Interesting poll Wibbler. Note that the bill considered the most important, by 94% of respondents no less, is the one that never appeared: MPs Expenses.
Also interesting that Reforming the house of lords was important for 71% of respondents. Younger and poorer were marginally more likely to support HoL reform, which makes you wonder why Labour haven’t done it.
48. Bolton also said that the US and UK had mortgaged their future to pay for the bailout, and that he expected that this would limit growth in the future.
So how the hell are we going to grow out of the current mess? A question that both Dave and Gordon need to answer, and the first person to say green jobs gets a thick ear.
Richard III I am sure tim is more preoccupied with the links between the Labour Party and the homophobic Australian Labour Govt trying to ban the civil patrnership law in the ACT.
Last time, many said that UKIP cost the Conservatives 26 seats.
Leave aside the fact that no party has a god given right to the voters of another party, and that in FPTP, we cannot measure likely switching, the impact at the coming election is likely to be less.
The cost of voting for a small party closer to your ideals is surely less, when the big compromise party you otherwise might plump for has no chance.
When the narrative changes to kick the beggars out, more people will surely hold their noses an go for anyone but the incumbent government.
In areas where the BNP are likely to do best, the seat is probably fairly safely Labour (correct me if I am wrong), so their impact will be muted.
Therefore the Lib Dems look to be in the biggest danger from others. If the Greens get their first ever MP in Brighton, they will be able to pose an even bigger threat in the future, as it dramtically improves their credibility.
Agree with James at 18. Trying to tack right and woo the UKIP/BNP minority would be stupid and lose votes carefully built up in the sensible centre over the last few years.
“In areas where the BNP are likely to do best, the seat is probably fairly safely Labour (correct me if I am wrong), so their impact will be muted.
Therefore the Lib Dems look to be in the biggest danger from others. If the Greens get their first ever MP in Brighton, they will be able to pose an even bigger threat in the future, as it dramtically improves their credibility.”
by Serf November 26th, 2009 at 9:12 am
Wrong and partly wrong,sir. See Seats like Keighley,Dewsbury,Burnley.
Also the Lib Dems look to me to be in the *least* danger of losing Seats because of the intervention of a minor Party but they are in danger of losing vote share.
53. How we are going to grow out of the current mess is indeed the question.
Unless we find a way to achieve a step rise in productivity growth and thus potential GDP growth, it is hard to see how we can avoid being saddled with a permanently higher public debt ratio. In addition, we may even see trend GDP growth over the medium-term being depressed from past levels, to 2% or so.
In the 1980s, we escaped the downward spiral thanks to a mix of inflation, oil receipts, asset sales and a big improvement in productivity growth generated by long-overdue deregulation. None of those solutions seems available this time on the scale required.
Muslim extremists! Tories don’t have any links do they?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1566675/Muslim-Tories-Iran-has-right-to-nuclear-arms.html
Of course not.
51 - I’ve got my crack researchers Gove and Cameron on the job.
So far they’ve found funding from the JCB and the Walsall Pact.
Stay tuned.
OT A very funny exchange re AWG - the intv totaly pwns the loud mouth. For anyone who’s seen the movie Quiz Show - the guy in the glasses is a dead ringer for the tv producer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHATItyOsdY&feature=player_embedded
Morning all.
An excellent article from Mike, and some very perceptive posts above. I agree with Mike’s central point, that an increased share for Others means that the Tories need a smaller nominal lead than would otherwise the case.
I also agree with those who have said that the LibDems look like being the (relative) losers from the drift to the Greens and other smaller parties; apart from anything else, they will miss out on the votes of some disaffected Labour supporters who might have voted LibDem but will instead vote Green (or say they will, but will actually not turn out).
However, I do think we need to be cautious about how big the move to Others will be. UKIP and the BNP (I’m not sure about the Greens) have talked about contesting large numbers of seats, but they don’t have a lot of money nor a large organisation of activists in many areas, and they risk spreading themselves too thinly. I suspect that when the time comes we might find either that they do not field as many candidates as they have been indicating, or that in many seats they run purely paper campaigns with very little back-up. Add in to that the expected squeeze as the stark choices become more evident to the electorate, and I’d expect Others to get rather fewer votes than than current polls suggest, albeit rather more than 2005.
POLL WATCH:
YouGov/Telegraph should be appearing tonight.
61
and it looks like the New Zealand climate advisory unit might have been naughty boys as well:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/25/uh-oh-raw-data-in-new-zealand-tells-a-different-story-than-the-official-one/#more-13215
63 Should give us London gatherers something to jaw about!
64. Nice.
58. Growth will only come about by releasing the energies of the population. Without wishing to wind tim up more than I need, part of this will come about by reducing Inheritance Tax. I am now in a IHT avoidance mode which means consolidation not expansion and therefore contrary to the fundamental needs of what rthe economy needs. I want carrots not stick.
58. “it is hard to see how we can avoid being saddled with a permanently higher public debt ratio. In addition, we may even see trend GDP growth over the medium-term being depressed from past levels, to 2% or so.”
Which seemed to be what Bolton was implying, yet both Tories and Labour are claiming we’ll fix things with higher growth. I wish someone would explain how we become a higher productivity and higher growth economy rather than simply asserting that it will happen.
#49, by scrapheap November 26th, 2009 at 9:00 am
Totall O/T
It’s just been announced that Anthony Bolton is coming out of ‘retirement’ and going back to managing investor’s money in early 2010….
He is relocating to Hong Kong… given he would be facing Labour’s 51% tax and other pension penalties as well.
I expect many more high profile exits from the UK in the coming months sadly.
None will presumably be mentioning tax as the reason but….
Has not the head of HSBC made a similar decision? How long before Gormless “Rusty” McBroon forces out HSBC and the rest of The City…?
IIRC, I am the only one of the six whose bets have recently been featured on PB, who has backed the Tories to win Brighton Pavilion. This is on the basis that the voters’ determination to remove Labour in that constituency and thereby nationally will exceed their collective wish to vote Green, so much so that ironically Labour might even finish second ahead of the Greens.
Of course, the reverse could happen and voters may abandon the Tories to ensure a Labour defeat at the hands of the Greens, but somehow I doubt it. People are well aware that the only way to get rid of Brown & Co. is to vote Tory. To some extent that mantra must hold good in Brighton.
URW @ 57
I checked those 3 constituencies and only Burnley looks safe. stand corrected
astateofdenmark @52
Younger and poorer were marginally more likely to support HoL reform, which makes you wonder why Labour haven’t done it.
Because they filled it with their cronies.
enlightened bystander @50, thanks, but I’d figured that much.
What I wasn’t getting, and still aren’t, is the reason for doing something like “take the difference between a current survey’s total for others and the 8.1% of 2005 and divide that between Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems in the same proportions as the headline figures in the poll”.
Presumably there’s a specific distortion Mike has in mind, and a reason why the kind of formula he suggests would correct it. Reading the post, I can’t figure out what that reason is. Reading ukpaul’s post @47, plus the rest of the thread where nobody has discussed that aspect of the post makes me suspect that no-one else knows why Mike’s doing this either, but I assume he had a reason for it and didn’t just pull the formula out of his bum.
Anyone have any ideas? Mike?
64 Half the Oz shadow cabinet have resigned today folowing their leaders vote for their ETS bill.
Nice to see politicians with cojones.
http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F
The key to understanding Others is to discover whether they are people from within the vast pool of 40% who didn’t vote last time out who are coming into the system, or whether they are switchers from those already in the system.
If all things remain the same, then only the latter will have an effect.
Of course all things won’t remain the same, as some who voted in 2005 are no longer here and some will drift into the 40% pool.
Interesting, isn’t it.
68. The silence on this issue is deafening. Partly that is because the only obvious source of improved productivity is to shift resources on a big scale out of the low-productivity public sector…
70 - Peter, not so sure about this. It might hold generally, but in Brighton many people might view a Tory “cure” as worse than the Labour “disease”.
74 - Looks like Europe and Nuclear Disarmament all rolled into one as far as handing victory to your opponents.
76 runnymede - Of course that is correct. Luckily we know that there is plenty of waste which can be eliminated, over time. That is the central issue which does not get enough attention; the argument should not be just about public spending totals, but what the money is spent on. Anyone looking around can see vast swathes of wasteful spending, and we can be sure that there is even more hidden waste.
If we could simply get back to the levels of ten years ago - hardly an age of massive austerity - we’d be doing a lot better.
A Labour deputy Speaker being partial? Surely not.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/bringing-sylvia-to-heal.html
Just checking polling at this stage before the 2005 election and others were polling between 7 & 10%, now the range is between 14 and 19% (ICM being an outlier at 10%), double what it was at this stage last time.
Do people really think that this is going to collapse back to 2005 levels? Why the disbelief as to people not being able to face voting for the main parties?
74, 78 - Paddy Power offer 1/3 on Labour to win Australian Federal election, due by Feb 2011 at the latest. Value perhaps?
Yesterday’s PMQs and post-PMQs furore re. muslim schools had Brown further retreating into his multicultural bunker and speeding the WWC on their journey towards BNP or non-voting. What a hypocrite Brown is: 10 days ago he announces it’s (immigration) is “not a taboo subject” - yesterday, at PMQ, he darkly threatens Cameron “you’ll regret bringing this subject up” …. Ugh. Cameron will have done himself no harm with voters yesterday.
“10 days ago he announces it’s (immigration) is “not a taboo subject””
I think it’s quite clear that it’s only racist if the Tories talk about immigration.
Arh yes the new Labour immigration policy, no highly skilled highly educated immigrants please….
Well it isn’t Dave’s fault.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23775290-balls-accuses-cameron-of-smears-over-muslim-schools-cash.do
Gove is gonna be the Patsy.
82 - It looks a nailed on certainty as the Liberals are intent on a trip out to the fringes and an internecine blood bath.
How long your money is tied up is the problem.
83 - Sadly you may have a point, if some voters think Cameron is prepared to sink to the levels of Albion till I Die and yourself, they may vote Tory.
It should depress the rest of us that a man who wants to be prime minister is so underresearched, or so willing to play fast and loose with the facts is apparently headed for Number Ten.
This idiocy, along with his parachuting into Georgia are the two most worrying single actions of the inexperienced Cameron so far.
Interesting developments in the politics of banking.
Are the banks going to be to the 2010s what the unions were to the 1970s? Albeit much more powerful.
Interesting to see Marr’s programme about the green shirts in the 1930s. Cleary there is a history of antagonism towards bankers in British politics?
86 - The patsies being lined up are The Centre for Social Cohesion and Andrew Gilligan.
79. I agree - but let’s not pretend this would be a painless process.
To make it work you have to have a thriving private sector that can absorb the resources you shift out of the public sector because the adjustment costs are substantial. The sequencing process is critical and very hard to manage.
Does seem like Gove is backing down,
Mr Gove rejected the Schools Secretary’s claim that Mr Cameron’s allegations were “unfounded”.
Mr Balls had failed to deny that the Government gave public money to schools run by ISF, which had “clear links” to Hizb ut-Tahrir, said the shadow schools secretary.
In a letter to Mr Balls, Mr Gove wrote: “The central issue is that Government money has been spent funding an organisation with close links to Hizb ut-Tahrir, an organisation that Tony Blair promised to ban more than four years ago.
“Not only do you seem relaxed about the links between these schools and Hizb ut-Tahrir, your letter also fails to apologise once for the fact that the Government has given money to people with extremist links.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230966/Political-row-100-000-public-money-given-schools-linked-Muslim-extremists.html#ixzz0Xxa15eLU
OT This has to be the weirdest thread I have ever seen on the BBC.
It’s Richard Black’s blog - apparently he’s their environment reporter. Since he was named in the Climategate emails as being on-side he’s gone curiously silent.
After howls of derision from readers - his blog is now filled with hundreds of comments and news links to other media outlets that are covering the story, Downfall spoof videos and stats pointing out the scandal verbatim.
It’s like Alice in Wonderland
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2009/11/copenhagen_countdown_17_days.html#comments
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/23/AR2009112303966.html?sub=AR
When a brigade of Greenpeace activists stormed a nuclear power plant on the shores of the North Sea a few years ago, scrawling “danger” on its reactor, Tindale was their commander. Then head of the group’s British office, he remembers, he stood outside the plant just east of London telling TV crews all the reasons “why nuclear power was evil.”
The construction of nuclear plants was banned in Britain for years after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in what was then the Soviet Union. But now the British are weighing the idea of new nuclear plants as part of the battle against climate change, and Tindale is among several environmentalists who are backing the plan.
“It really is a question about the greater evil — nuclear waste or climate change,” Tindale said. “But there is no contest anymore. Climate change is the bigger threat, and nuclear is part of the answer.”
87
And so it begins. Only another 14 hours to go.
“Not only do you seem relaxed about the links between these schools and Hizb ut-Tahrir, your letter also fails to apologise once for the fact that the Government has given money to people with extremist links.”
Key point.
87 tim - I’m not an expert on this, but my understanding is that the election will probably take place in 2010; the latest possible date is April 2011 (not Feb as I said at 82). Looking at the past few elections, they have been held at roughly three-year intervals, in October/November.
So probably money would be tied up for around a year.
94 Yup. TIMBOT’s driving the outrage bus at full speed through todays threads. As he clearly cannot be bothered to set up his own site, Mike Smithson may as well hand the website over to the cuckoo in the nest and be done with it.
87 - “It should depress the rest of us that a man who wants to be prime minister is so underresearched, or so willing to play fast and loose with the facts… ”
It is deeply disappointing, and alarming too.
Disappointing because it would surely not have taken much effort to get it right.
Alarming because going off at half cock in an incendiary area like this is both irresponsible and hugely counterproductive.
A pathetic episode.
95 - Absolutely, which pot of public money was used is an irrelevance, what is important is were the Telegraph’s (and now the Tories) claims true, regarding if the people who were in charge of running these schools were members of Hizb ut-Tahrir and what this charity actually stands for.
Also raises the interesting question of how come members of the legal democratically elected BNP are banned from being involved in things like education, but Hizb ut-Tahrir aren’t.
96 - I think thats about right although if the Liberals continue tearing themselves to shreds Rudd may be tempted by May/June
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/2480
“Will Gordon Brown Have Any Scruples about Honouring Islamist Sectarians?”
97 - a tim has a point for once imho
Am I the only one that finds all of this week’s favourite topics of political debate stupendously boring? I can’t get exercised about one school’s alleged Islamist links, emails from dodgy scientists or charges on bank overdrafts. We seem to be in a holding pattern on economic debate pending the pre-budget report and new economic data. Could some public-spirited Lib Dem please get involved with a showgirl in some previously-unthought-of but entertainingly lubricious manner?
82 - The odds possibly aren’t tempting enough yet to tie up betting money for 18 months with all the opportunities here in up to May. But I agree Aussie Labour are value. As Tim says, the Liberals are in chaos while Kevin Rudd is a very impressive politician making some waves on the global stage - it would certainly seem eccentric to kick him out in 2011.
99 - “Also raises the interesting question of how come members of the legal democratically elected BNP are banned from being involved in things like education, but Hizb ut-Tahrir aren’t.”
Lots of undemocratic organisations are involved in Education. The Catholic Church to name but one.
From the Telegraph regarding the Climate change scandal:
Wow! The scandal just gets juicier and juicier. Now it seems that the Kiwis may have been at it too – tinkering with raw data to make “Global Warming” look scarier than it really is.
This is really starting to snowball, and given that the three main parties are engaged in a; ‘we love the climate change issue more than you’ competition, they going to look pretty silly.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017977/climategate-the-scandal-spreads-the-plot-thickens-the-shame-deepens/
32 - “The LD activists have turned nasty on the Greens in places such as the Norwich by election. Will the Greens now an extra 100 candidates at the GE in LD areas?”
LD activists have turned nasty on every party in their time! The Greens will stand more candidates than in 2005 but they will be in areas where they are organised locally not centrally dictated to undermine the electoral ambitions of any of the main parties.
103 - Lembit’s current penchant is for underwear models, ISTR
Morning all and I see my friend Stuart Dickson this morning was taking whatever tablet Rod Crosby was on yesterday morning
Others masking Tory/Lab/LibDem votes is an interesting one. In Scotland I wonder how many SNP Holyrood voters will vote Tory/Lab/LibDem at the GE and whether it will make any difference to any close results. I suspect it might but we are venturing into crystal ball territory.
Meanwhile the Tories are now startin to outflank Murphy and Labour on Calman. George Osborne has said we will come forward with our own proposals for implimenting Calman.
“The Catholic Church to name but one.”
The Catholic CHurch isn’t like the BNP. Hizb is. Odd double standard.
103 antifrank Could some public-spirited Lib Dem please get involved with a showgirl in some previously-unthought-of but entertainingly lubricious manner?
And not Lembit, please, as that would hardly count. We need someone really strait-laced.
Australian Labor have to be good value, but Kevin Rudd does rather come across as a man with no redeeming vices.
Immigration to the UK continued to rise last year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
About 590,000 people came to live in Britain in 2008, compared with 574,000 the year before, figures showed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8380367.stm
Yes a lot more people also left, and overall the net migration figure was down, but that isn’t quite what the general consensus was. We were told due to the recession people wouldn’t be coming to the UK. Be interesting to find out how many EU and how many non-EU are in those figures.
111 - I’d like to help out, but Mrs Tabman might take a dim view.
98. Astroturf alert,…
112 antifrank - You’re forgetting this little episode:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sunday-telegraph/kevin-rudd-hits-a-strip-club/story-e6frewt0-1111114215510
102 ‘a tim has a point for once imho’
TIMBOT’s point might have more validity, if he ever made similar comment regarding the serial incompetency of the current Prime Minister and government. He doesn’t, choosing instead to cast his ‘Nelsons eye’ over the disaster zone that is currently occupying Number 10, and either keeping quiet or defending it.
3 “The minor party results are not going to be as high as some predict.”
I don’t think that’s the point. The point is past vote weighting in the current climate might not be as good a clue as it is in normal times.
The “others” are guaranteed to have a smaller percentage on the day because a) they won’t have the money to stand everywhere and b) the wasted vote syndrome but if you get an accurate number for the true level of “others” support and then figure out how that support will split on the day then you might be in with a bigger shout at calling some unlikely results and making a few bob.
One point on that score is there seems to be an assumption that a person who wants Nationalist Labour are more likely to vote Internationalist Labour than Nationalist Tory. I don’t think that’s anywhere near true. Obviously they’re very unlikely to vote Internationalist Tory.
115 - Nope, runnymede, that is merely rude: actually I want them to wake their bloody ideas up because I would quite like them to win.
You can’t be sanguine about this snafu, surely? What does it say about the basic competence of the operation?
After the hysteria of tim and Gabble last night I feared we would awaken to the sight of a dazed DC, wandering through the ruined streets of Peckham, like some “Downfall” parody. Especially as Labour have wheeled out the big guns like John Sellar. The rabid dogs have barked but the caravan has moved on.
Richard Nabavi, that was the first time I found him remotely bearable. He does epitomise wowser. The days of Australian politicians with the charisma of the lizard of Oz are long behind us, apparently.
106. Another issue that the media haven’t really caught on to yet is the way the WMO and national mets are still using 61-90 averages, rather than 71-00. From 2011 they really should change again to 81-10 averages. By continuing to use 61-90, which of course includes the very cold 1960’s it makes our current warming look much more severe.
117 - the point is valid or not on its own merits and I did say “for once”!
123 - You still committed the crime of agreeing with tim. Take the punishment of the herd like a man.
Hizb is really quite simple - the government are tryong to get off criticism on a technicality. The reality of extremism and government funding is the real story and the attempt by a grinning Balls to escape due to a bit of amateurism on the Tories part sticks in the craw.
Ultimately, whilst the Tories did not exactly get the approach right, no-one will remember or notice - they will however remember where the money went, and the HT who refused to answer questions about her past etc.
Politics is not about misfires, its about the smoke
125. Exactly. The details are irrelevant.
We’ve had a big incident this morning in Peckham, with gas canisters on a building site exploding (it is believed). Looking forward to Harriet turning up wearing body armour.
In other news, anyone else struggling to get paid by a government department?
And for Neil re: the LD attacks, I believe the Greens were subject to a quite LDesque attack in NN by election. Not that it did much to help the LDs, but a sign of things to come in LD-Green battles perhaps.
Yep looks like Gove is in the poo!!
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/when-an-extremist-is-not-an-extremist.html
If Labour manage to keep pathfindergate going it could very well have the same effect as their gleeful attack on Lansley’s “gaffe”.
129. Hope so
A good exercise would be to list all the LAB-CON, LAB-LD, LD-LAB, LD-CON Seats which are close, and where a minor Party was listed in the betting.
For example the betting in Keighley is
CON 1-2 LAB 6-4 BNP 20-1.It doesn’t matter that the BNP can’t win Keighley.The mere fact that they are listed at 20-1 suggests they have a presence and that presence can only hurt Labour.
Here’s another. Totnes.
CON 2-5 LD 2-1 UKIP 80-1.Same story: UKIP can’t win but they will take votes away from the Tories.
re 73. My objective was simple - to find a better way of projecting seats given the distorting affect of very large shares for others.
http://philippalatimer.co.uk/home/?p=153
I think the issue of the hung parliament is going to come back to haunt us all in the three main parties, and it may well be to the benefit of the smaller parties. People like to vote and have that vote go to the person they intended. We should all be conscious of this.
I think with that in mind the reverse (of the original article) may be true. The impact of the smaller parties is yet not properly acknowledged.
104 Sir Norfolk - On reflection I think this is a worthwhile bet for me at least, and probably for others.
Firstly you are probably tying your money up for a year at most, and as tim points out Rudd might be tempted to go early to capitalise on his opponents’ disarray, so it could be less. I suspect the odds will tighten fairly quickly, so waiting is probably not viable. 33% return in a year is attractive, assuming the risk is indeed as low as it looks now.
Secondly, it is good to find bets which are not correlated with existing bets on the GE, as this reduces the overall risk on your book.
Mike @132, thanks, but I got the objective.
What I’m not getting is what you think the specific distorting effect is, and why you think the method you’ve proposed would correct it.
64 - This will run and run and run. As usual it is the dead tree press making up time after after Internet exposure. Our broadcast media cannot ignore this much longer.
All the Global Cooling Deniers use the same data - tweaked to show what they want (warming) - and pass it amongst eachother for further tweaks. Peer Review? marking your own homework!
The whole edifice that AGW/MMCC a construct based on how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
CRU maintain temps rose by .7 degree, yet their margin of error for calculations is about +/- 1 degree! So in effect the perceived rise lies within an acceptable band of 2 degrees.
Followed by the met office claiming that the next decade has a 50% chance of being warmer than the last - or in simpler language, climate forecasting amounts to tossing a coin to find out.
125: Agree completely. Labour have been far too soft on Islamist extremists: (1) a lax immigration policy which has allowed too many in; (2) the introduction of laws which have made it harder to deport them; (3) turning a blind eye to what has been going on in some mosques/schools/so-called charities and community groups; (4) being relaxed about allowing foreign funding of Islamic institutions even where their agendas are hostile to or at best inconsistent with basic British concepts such as freedom/democracy etc., (5) appointing those with extremist views as government advisors and cosying up to them rather than chllenging their views; and (6) spouting multicultural nonsense instead of standing up for British values and making life difficult for those who want to harm us.
The Tories may have got the details wrong but Labour has got the big picture wrong - and we’re all in more danger as a result.
Still, if Labour think that linking themselves to extremists is a winning formula, who am I to disagree?
134 - I read our host as simply stripping the minority parties out completely, and regarding the main parties’ 80+% as the 100% that matters (and so scaling up those shares accordingly before applying the seat calculators).
As a general approach, that has much to commend it. The weakness of this approach is that it assumes that the movement between different parties is uniform across the country and on average that Tories have moved to UKIP in the same proportions in the same seats as Labour voters have moved to the BNP.
My own take is that with a very few exceptions, minority parties will be substantially up only in those seats where it is safe to cast a protest vote. I expect that in general both UKIP and the BNP will be an irrelevance to the final result. Like URW, I suspect that the Greens will harm Labour’s seat tally more than the Lib Dems’, but that the Lib Dems will be fighting for protest votes with the Greens in seats where neither are in contention.
What’s the justification for this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/broadband/6659390/Broadband-tax-of-6-may-be-trebled-for-homes-with-multiple-lines.html
Why should I subsidise those who choose to live in rural areas?
This site is in danger of becoming a clique. Can anyone provide any evidence or even argument as to why the ‘PB super 6′ views should dominate discussion as to seat predictions in the next election?
Even Mike Smithson (who has more of a claim and right to give judgement) does not make such arrogant posturing as to his own views
138 You can just see this government subsequently introducing a Broadband Tax credit to pay back the levy to people who it feels are to ppor to afford it, too……
#109 Easterross
“George Osborne has said we will come forward with our own proposals for implimenting Calman.”
And we all know that this is the Sir Alec Douglas Home approach to devolution as per 1979 i.e. we will do it better than Labour which translates as we will never do it.
139 - As one of those named as a member of the so-called “super 6″, I don’t regard myself as super at all. I state my view and others are free to agree or disagree as they think fit. I have no doubt that as usual many of my views will be proved to be wildly wrong come the election. Get stuck in and tell us where we’re wrong!
138. Well to be controversial you might ask why should those who live in rural areas subsidise those who live in burnt-out inner cities with high rates of unemployment and massive social problems?
In a less inflammatory mode, the same kind of cross-subsidy also exists in the provision of most other utilities - gas, water, electricity, post…
138: Thats a very….consverative attitude Mike.
My taxes go to fund all sorts of things. Buses (I don’t use them) Kids (I don’t have them), Scottish people…
39
We all have the “Leave a Comment” facility to indulge in our own arrogant posturings. [Links: tim, Gabble, coldstone etc]
re 134. The real problem is with the UNS seat calculators which operate on an additive basis.
If you have a large slab going to others then then the percentage points you have available to reflect change (to add or subtract) are reduced considerably thus, arguably, giving a distorted view of likely outcomes.
139. What a silly post - where’s the ‘arrogance’ of which you speak?
The idea of this is surely to get a discussion going on the merits/demerits of bets in various constituencies. What on earth is wrong with that? If you have different views to those being expressed, then share them with the site.
140 The internet is overrated as an absolute need for universal access. Its a government pet project of course as its modern and trendy but the three big uses for the interent are porn,gambling and idle chatter ,non of which need government funding imo
147 the arrogance starts in the name of the group I would suggest and the way the groups views are tabled and forumuated -why do a table of six (talk about low samples) random (with tory bias I suspect)views and put it on here several times as some sort of learned evidence?
138 - I’d imagine that many taxes have an effective subsidy for rural areas paid for by urban dwellers.
The costs of healthcare for instance, and education in small schools.
I’d imagine it’s the same in the private sector where electricity transmission is cheaper to concentrated communities.
The opposite argument may apply to water supplies.
149 - Why not post your own predictions / positions for the seats?
138 - The same reason you pay for road building in other parts of the country.
And really, gotta give those farmers something to do in their free time!
138 Mike, as our PM will doubtless argue “because it’s the right thing to do”!
That I live in a rural area has no effect on my views…
151 I will and have put money on already on some but I dont expect Mike to publish them as a threadstarter repeatedly (or call myself super)
Mike @146: So is this basically the same discussion as the UNS vs Proportional Loss stuff? I’m not an expert in this stuff, but what you seem to be advocating is going with the seat calculators’ UNS approach for most of the data, but using a proportional methodology for allocating the others.
Why would UNS be right for the general case but wrong for allocating others?
149. What a charmless and humourless being you appear to be. Neil at 151. is correct - if you have something to contribute on these betting issues please enlighten us.
154 - I’m sure people are looking forward to commenting on them.
My understanding of Mike’s point was more mathematical than political, and if so I don’t think it’s correct, though he’ll correct me if I’m wrong. I think he was wondering whether, if Others took votes from all parties, reducing the pool of non-Others votes, this would also reduce the swing the Tories need. The answer is yes in terms of number of votes, but no in terms of vote share. It will make all majorities smaller in numerical terms, but doesn’t reduced the required swing.
Take seat X with Lab 40 Con 30 LD 20 Oth 10 last time. The Tories appear to need a 5% swing. Say Others gain 2 points from each other party, so it’s 38/28/18/16. Then the swing required would still be 5%, but fewer votes on either side would actually be involved.
Most of the comments on the thread have been about a different issue: whether Others deprive one major party more than another (something we’ve discussed inconclusively many times - the problem is that we have data on where the Others come from but not where they’d go if their Other candidate wasn’t standing) and whether the success of Others will vary by the seat (clearly yes, but doesn’t clearly relate to UNS calculations).
149 They are not predictions, they are bets which have been made by six individuals.
#41 GHF
fyi I think this SNP Edinburgh East candidate is an ex Labour Edinburgh City Councillor. At that time he was a hard line Marxist, so advocating nationalising the “commanding heights of the economy (RBS/HBOS??) without any compensation” at least shows he has some consistency.
Wonder what he does for a living these days? Maybe he’s another “political researcher” like Stuart Dickson’s mate Calum Cashley?
I’m sick of these people. Shouldn’t they be spending more time fighting climate change than writing in the Scotsman?
92 Fall of Berlin wall or the Prague Spring. Wonder which it will be.
R5 reporting immigration stats as ’second highest ever recorded’ and then mentioning the 70k who left [mainly back to eastern EU].
64. We live in interesting times.
Science used to be a matter for scientists.
Nowadays it seems it is a matter for the police.
Arrogant poster accuses others of arrogance and posts nothing of interest him/herself.
And then expects a hearing?
Pillock.
162 - 70k? Over what period?
154 - I am always very interested in the views of others, so don’t be shy. In terms of your comments about bias, I suspect the so-called “super 6″ are more closer to the political centre of gravity than the average pb thread. Scott P, Richard Nabavi and Peter from Putney are all disclosed Conservative supporters, Peter the Punter and stjohn are Labour by background and I’m a floating voter. The name was chosen, I think, for amusement and alliterative value. It was not put to a vote, nor were the contributors consulted in advance. I would have gone for “sexy 6″ - it pays to advertise.
154 If you pen a thread and email it to Mike he may very well put it up on PB2 where around a dozen of us take turns in posting threads which hopefully add useful conversations to the main threads which Mike and team produce week in and week out.
you write, we’ll read.
165 Last quarter IIRC. It came across as quite an ear-catcher, the second bit was lost.
rightisright, I think that if you contact MikeS directly he will issue you with a refund voucher. You obviously dislike the people, the issues and the betting theme of this site so feel free to avail yourself of the voucher option.
158 Nick Palmer. I’m not one of the Super6 but I can reveal exclusively to you that Labour will be the only Party to suffer from the ‘Others’ effect.
Such an easy point to make because give or take a few, Labour will be the only Party to *suffer* at the next GE.
This is a betting post not a political post and not made with acrimony.
The *new* narrative to consider is how Labour’s shameless courting of the Muslim vote will impact on LAB-LD,LD-LAB exclusive marginals. This could be a plus for Labour I feel, as the Lib Dems are due a good kicking.
160 Mark, I am becoming increasingly concerned at the irrelevant pro Labour drivel the Scotsman is printing as “journalism”. The dreaded Warner man is starting to look sensible compared to most of them.
I’ve never bought into this “Tories need 10% lead to win” line. It conveniently forgets that in 2005 they deliberately had a rather narrow appeal that piled up massive majorities in the rural south. There is every sign that St Dave has broadened their appeal to other areas as well as deepening it in the heartlands.
So this 10% rule could be false even before you think about minor parties.
IMO The main thing that could deprive the Tories of a majority is not the electoral system, but the strength of the Lib Dems.
#160 Mark, Edinburgh
“I’m sick of these people. Shouldn’t they be spending more time fighting climate change than writing in the Scotsman?”
As of yesterday you stated you were sick of all politicians, not just the SNP. Why not spread your bile around a little, as you claim to be ex-Labour, and have a go at them-there is plenty to go at, I assure you.
165 / 168 - 427,000 left in 2008, that appears to be a record
calm down girls!! Many people discuss views on here (like URW for instance ) and I have no problem with that -it is after all a betting site. I find it a bit tedious though to have to read about the ’super 6′ (nobody has yet defended it name to me on here btw-it is arrogant imo) as a thread starter though as it its more worthy of others views that are expressed within threads
‘as IF its more worthy’ should read
#31 Stuart Dixon.
Yes indeed the SNP has fought a long hard “slog”. In the potted history of your party you neglected to note how the SNP was victimised by the wicked British government in 1941 when its leadership was interned along with Mosely.
SNP policy was neutrality and opposition to Scots joining the British armed forces wasn’t it?
To be fair the party changed its policy when it realised Hitler was on the way out but quite a lot of people still remembered this right through the 50s and 60s, which is one of the reasons why you got absolutely nowhere in those days.
158 Nick P - Very clear post. However, your example isn’t quite realistic, because the assumption ‘Others gain 2 points from each other party’ would not be true if we are talking about a generalised (not party-specific) drift to Others.
In your example, you have Labour losing 5% of their original voters, Conservatives losing 6.67%, and the poor LibDems socked for 10% of theirs, simply because Labour started with twice as many as the LibDems.
This is of course a variant of the old discussion of UNS vs Proportional Swing vs VIPA.
I have long believed that the seat calculators work best when there’s a small swing. Simply moving from a “keep the Tories out” mentality to a “get Labour out” mentality is likely to break them entirely.
In cases of massively-overstated Others, my usual methodology is to assume that about half of those saying they’ll vote for an Other probably won’t end up voting at all. Thus with 39-25-17-19, I halve the Others score to get 39-25-17-9.5 (total 90.5) and then multiply each number by (100/90.5) to get percentages of 43-28-19-10 (C maj: lots).
175. rightisright: it is arrogant
Which would be valid were they promoting it themselves, which I haven’t seen.
154 Rightisright
The ‘Super’ is meant to be ironic and self-deprecating. We don’t take ourselves too seriously. Suggest you do likewise.
for what its worth my bets have so far centred on scottish seats and have bet on the tories picking up less than 4 seats at 2/1 and bet on labour holding various seats maninly in Edinburgh ar odds against in all cases . My reasoning is that the tories are not doing any signicantly better than last time in Scotland and many peopel in scotland will vote labour in Westminter elections but snp in scottish ones.
MEssage to mike smithson -do not put my predictions as a thread starter and call them super!!
160 - Mark
George Kerevan is doing what he has been doing since he stopped being a Labour Councillor - writing a weekly for the Scotsman telling everyone how clever he is.
178.Richard Nabavi. I really think that the only way to grab this issue by the balls is on a Seat by Seat basis.
Seats where the Tories lead do not apply.Seats where Labour have a stellar lead do not apply. Seats where there is no significant ‘Others’ representation do not apply. Seats where all three significant others contest do not apply.
Seats like Dewsbury where two minor Parties contest ( BNP and Khizar Iqbal) most certainly apply. This is the sharpest example I can find where Others will probably deprive Labour of a Seat.
This Super 6″ talk (it is inches isn’t it?) reminds my of the fantastic Sarah Silvermans campaign to get Jewish retirees in Florida to vote Obama.
“He’s circum-super-sized”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgHHX9R4Qtk
182. There - that was easy, wasn’t it?
The detail from the latest Angus Reid poll contain some very interesting tables. Each table is split by Region, Gender, Age, Social Grade.
Table 6: Newspaper Readership: 2004 polled.
Express/Mail: 19%
Sun/Star: 21%
Mirror/Record: 14%
Guardian/Indy: 4%
FT/Times/Tele: 12%
Other: 12%
None: 20%
Table 9: As you are undecided, which pary do you lean towards?
Cons: 28%; LAB 15%; LD 39%; UKIP 7%; GN 4%; BNP 6%.SNP 1%
Table 12: Will you definetely vote for your chosen party or could you change your mind?
Definite: 60%; Could change mind before GE: 40%
Table: 19: Who did you vote for at the 2005GE?
Cons: 25%; LAB 26%; LD 16%; SNP 1%; PC<1%; UKIP 2%; GN 1%, BNP 1%;
Other ,1%; DID NOT VOTE 26%
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/table_uk_1123.pdf
181 PtP - Indeed. We’ll see how Super the Six are when the results come in!
It might be the Sad Six.
ok can we call a truce and I’ll do a deal -If the ’super 6′ do not get anymore thread starters or fancy charts I will stop thinking that this site is a bit of a clique!!
189 - How about you let the site owner decide what merits a thread starter and we’ll call it quits.
If I also had the funds to tie up for 6 months I would also sell SNP seats at anything above 12
190 I’m Sure Mike Smithson welcomes customer feedback from all parties!!
#171 Agreed!
#173. Point taken. However its mainly SNP supporters who post here, not Scottish Labour, and I’m sorry, but you do tend to wind me up a little. When you get an ex Labour turned SNP carpet bagger then that’s the ultimate toxic mixture in my book - Cardownie for example.
For the record I’m very disappointed “mouth of the south” wasn’t prosecuted, and am looking forward to Murphy being out on his ear. When I said I hated all politicians what I really meant was that I was a bit cynical about the political class in general. There are always exceptions. Actually I rather like Malcolm Chisholm - he rather strikes me as a decent cove but I’m sure you’ll have reasons to correct me.
Any issue that has Labour supporting people with dodgy foreign names is good news for the Tories. The Labour MP for Burnley has already come out against a proposed Muslim school in his constituency. I believe the SNP view on this is that there are no Muslim schools in Scotland and they don’t want any.
98. Frederick James: It is deeply disappointing, and alarming too.
Disappointing because it would surely not have taken much effort to get it right.
Alarming because going off at half cock in an incendiary area like this is both irresponsible and hugely counterproductive.
A pathetic episode.
Your use of the phrase “incendiary area” is very revealing re. the desirability and contribution of much of our fast-expanding muslim population.
187 - That who did you vote for question is interesting. It just does not look right to me, but I am not sure why.
194 - The Labour MP for Burnley has also had a sex change it seems.
194 The very fact that there are faith schools at all in the UK is ridiculous to me but if the government is really funding some that has a ‘faith’ that does not believe in democracy or believes in a new muslim world order then ,you are right. it can only help the tories this row
This is an excellent essay on climategate:
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/7748/
194. Yup. The nuances of Money For Hizbut will have been lost on most voters. The average punter will have construed two simple facts from the kerfuffle: Tories are against giving money to burqa-clad Teachers of Hate, Labour are, by contrast, rather relaxed about giving them taxpayers cash.
Not a good narrative for the left, whatever the details.
198 and also help the BNP of course!
184 URW - I agree with that, except that at the margin where (for a given swing) UNS would predict very close results, there could be quite a few seats where a small amount of movement to Others makes the difference between Lab Hold and Tory Gain.
For example, Anthony Wells list 15 Labour seats which would fall at between 8% and 8.9% swing.
194 PS I thought that the muslim interviewed on the news last nght was brilliant and far more with it than Ed Balls etc
200. I imagine there might be a few more titbits to come on this story, too.
Seems to me there’s two separate questions going on in this discussion. One is what is the likely overall effect of the “others” on the total number of seats won by each of the largest parties at the end of election day and the second is how likely is it that reading the “others” right will affect making money from the betting.
There could well be two different answers to those questions. The first answer could end up being “not much” (although i think LDs are the most likely to GAIN from the others by accident). The answer to the second question could end up being “very”.
200. Sean T - dead right, there, and one of the reasons why Cameron should revisit the topic regularly over coming months.
I wounder if the government would be so relaxed if it found some schools had BNP members as trustees. The argument seems to be that becasue only 1 out of the 4 trustees of one of those schools was a memeber of this extreme muslim group that was ok.
Strange argument to me when we have had to go to war in a foreign land to stop islamic extrmeism there but fund it here in this way.
Your average BNP memebers views on life are also far more likely to be more moderate than your average islamic fundamentalist
144. I get the impression Mike Smithson basically is a conservative but greatly dislikes immigration controls and euroscepticism so hooks up with the Lib-Dems instead.
There are also many Middle England voters who have conservative attitudes but despise the snobbery and pomposity of the Conservative Party so therefore vote Lib-Dem instead as well.
At the risk of starting tim off I often wonder how many votes being “who” we (the Tories) are actually cost the Conservative movement.
200. SeanT.
Well, quite.
And AFAICT from listening to PMQs yesterday and reading PB since, the twin allegations that Cameron made were (a) taxpayers’ money has been given to these schools, and (b) these schools have, or had, links to HuT - and these allegations have not been disproven.
195-Is this going to be new cue from the Bunker. Talking about race (religion), immigration is off limits as it’s “incendiary”. A step up, probably, from it’s “racist”, but gets us abck to sqaure one.
There was no debate on large scale immigration, and there shouldn’t be one. Not because it’s racist but incendiry. It’s also incendiary to highlight state funding in schools of an organsation with having links with a group that should have been banned 4 years ago (by the looks of it, it wasn’t). Why exactly is it incendiary?
Guess the odds of NGMP for Barking just edged up. And when he takes his seat the cause will lie sqaurely on dusking issues such as these for fear of them being incendiary. Someone obviously took out the thesaurus at No 10.
206. Yes, it’s practically a foolproof line of attack for the Tories.
Even if they get details wrong, Labour have to come out and say things like “we only gave these unpleasant and extremist-linked Muslim faith schools x thousand pounds rather than y million pounds, and the head teacher is just a jihadist not an actual terrorist etc etc”
It looks bad whatever Labour say. And it’s an easy way for the Tories to pocket a few hundred thousand WWC votes, while alienating virtually no one, apart from al Qaeda, MPAC and George Galloway.
Those who decried this tactic as silly politics by the Tories perhaps didn’t think it through.
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/2480
An important piece by Nick Cohem on Brown and the MCB. His cynicism knows no bounds.
202 Richard Nabavi - There are four types of Seat that merit consideration in this context.
1. LAB-CON marginals where the result is problematic on UNS. Two considerations.
1a. The presence of the BNP and esoteric Muslim Parties. This only helps the CONS.
1b. The presence of UKIP but not the BNP. In theory this only helps Labour but such Seats are difficult to pinpoint.
2/3. LAB-LD/ LD-LAB two-way Seats.The presence of the BNP always helps LD but the distribution/redistribution of the Muslim vote coud be a more important factor.
4. LIB-CON. UNS will play a huge part but the exclusive presence of UKIP in these Seats should aid the Lib Dems.
OT Mr Delingpole has posted a very funny uber rant - I’m surprised the chap hasn’t burst a blood vessel.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017987/climategate-what-gores-useful-idiot-ed-begley-jr-doesnt-get-about-the-peer-review-process/
211 SeanT - Even so, it would be better to get the details 100% correct before raising the issue at PMQs.
211 - I’m sure if Cameron wants to run an dog whistle campaign aimed at BNP trending right wing voters, he’d get your support.
I doubt he will though, and on yesterdays evidence he’d get his Bin Ladens and his Laden Bins mixed up.
Have either Tim or Gabble said “We are all Hizb ut-Tahrir now” yet?
I suspect the Tories need a lead of circa 9% for a majority - based on 1992 when a 7.6% lead gave them a 21 majority.Had the lead fallen to 6.5% that year Major would have found himself in a hung Parliament. This was before the LibDem breakthrough in 1997 and 2001 which have deprived the Tories of say 35 seats.Whilst the Tories will recapture some of their former strongholdd , I expect most to remain in LibDem hands.Thus, the 6.5% margin required in 1992 would no longer be enough.
The big increase in support for ‘Others’ has obviously hit all the major parties, but I would have thought that disillusionment with the governing party will have resulted in Labour being hit most severly as their supporters switch to one of the smaller parties. To the extent that support for ‘Others’ unwinds as we get close to the General Election, I would - on the whole - expect it to benefit Labour disproportionately.
tim, can you explain why it is generally labour seats that fall to the BNP?
173. Tom Robinson/Stuart Dickson/James Kelly
All nits and all veeeery sensitive.
Lighten up guys: you’ll live longer.
I think URW’s approach is more sensible, looking at individual seats. To attempt to portion out a supposed drift from others in a blanket manner is just exacerbating the problem.
Anyway, looking at how polling in the November before an election changed to the reality of what happened in 2005, others went from 7-10% polling to about 6% in the actual vote (Mike says 8.1% upthread but is that with NI?).
Given that others are 14-19% now it might be plausible to claim that they will not lose anything like the 6 to 11% that Mike is suggesting. That makes the amount to reapportion much smaller.
206
I rather think the idea was to rattle the BNP cage in the Labour heartlands (the BNP showing in the Glasgow NE by-election must have been something of a surprise to everybody); the new immigration figures will have done the same, so Cameron can just sit back for a while and let Brown and Balls protest too much.
219. It’s Shirley Porter’s fault.
215 Why? Brown hasn’t exactly felt constrained to be 100% correct with his answers at PMQ’s…
21. The Glenrothes by-election was rigged by a vast secret conspiracy involving 19,946 demented and fanatical Labour supporters who were ruthlessly trying to subvert the correct and true will of the people of Glenrothes constituency. Similarly, the next GE will see a sustained and determined attempt by a secret conspiracy of some 7 or 8 million fanatical and deranged Brownite maniacs to rig and pervert the whole general election, and thus deprive perhaps 200 constituencies of the MPs they really want to have.
Just find the Glenrothes register, John.
Re 2010, you’ll be lucky to find 7 million nutters. 22% of the electorate equates to nearer 4.5 million (depending on turnout), and of those 3 million might exist only in postal form. The number of Labour voters who will actually visit a polling booth in 2010 might be as low as 2 million.
But if all the registers are disappeared immediately after the vote, no one will ever know.
213 URW - The Greens would also have an effect in some seats.
But the big difficulty is that we don’t really know in what range of Tory targets to start looking for the kinds of effect you describe, since we can’t guess the overall national swing with any precision.
215. For sure, it was a silly little error. But the strategy is sound and the overall message has hit home, successfully. Indeed it is arguable that Labour’s counter-attack has made it worse, by highlighting the issue and revealing that these schools DO exist and, yes, they got government money.
Labour are the party of single parents, immigrants and Islamic extremists, as any fule kno.
216. I think Cameron is “dog-whistling” the vast majority of Brits who reject the idea of taxpayer-funded schools run by self-confessed anti-Semites teaching shariah law to British kids. As someone so exercised by anti-Semitism, you surely agree.
Perhaps you will now vote Tory.
215. Richard Nabavi.
I’m not so sure. Making a slight error enables Labour to attack the error - and confirm, by implication, the gist of the story.
#220 Casino Royale
Comments like that are simply patronising.
I don’t like that and neither would you so I suggest you don’t do it.
225 - “you’ll be lucky to find 7 million nutters”
We have you though so, 1 down, 6,999,999 to go….
226 Richard Nabavi - UNS seems to be every Flashman’s whipping boy.
UNS is where all investigation begins. The bad news is that you need a crystal ball to predict the bugger !
I am enjoying this thread. It seems remarkably focussed.
216 tim
I couldn’t believe the government had two schemes with exactly the same name… but then, if you look at the following Google search
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=pathfinder+site:gov.uk
which finds about 316,000 references to Pathfinder schemes on government websites, you quickly realize that pathfinder obviously means something in Mandarin.
Could you shed any light on what pathfinder actually means? Is this the result of those billions spent on management consultants in?
Given how common the name is throughout government though, the Tories seem to have messed up. As mentioned above, it won’t matter in this case - the central message, that Labour funds schools run by extremists - will be loud and clear. Nevertheless, it doesn’t fill me with confidence that Gove, supposedly the most competent of the Cameron team, made this sort of mistake.
225
“But if all the registers are disappeared immediately after the vote, no one will ever know.”
Exactly. Send them all off to be digitised and lose them between Ft William and Euston (later to be found by archeologists digging in a landfill outside of Mumbai)
228 LS - Now that would be cunning: make a deliberate mistake to keep the story going longer.
Nonetheless, better not give ammunition to your enemies.
226. Once coverage of the GE begins in earnest in Feb/Mar - with the BBC coverage heavily focusing on the real choices Labour/Conservative/Libdem (with a dash of PC/SNP in Wales/Scotland respectively) - would we not expect the % shares for “others” to decline?
I’d have thought voters would polarise around major parties given:
(a) This election will change the government
(b) It’s FPTP and people know that
A choice of government vote overrides a protest vote.
#193 Mark, Edinburgh
“Actually I rather like Malcolm Chisholm - he rather strikes me as a decent cove but I’m sure you’ll have reasons to correct me.”
No, I’ll agree with you on Chisholm-I am sure you can guess why.
227
Single parents, isn’t that you?
184 PtP. How very dare mere minions of PB attempt to undermine the second tier of gods of this olympian and august organization.
The ‘Super Six’ (SS) should puff out their fine manly, if somewhat paunchy, chests and brush aside the snide, wanton and pin prick attacks of the detritus of PB.
All Hail The SS !! …. er …. not Latvian ah ??
Signed by this hand in the fifth year of the reign of Political Betting
Jack W
Titan of PB
Tipster of the Year
Pie Maker par excellence since 1741
Auchentennach Village Rude Vegetable Prize Winner 1937.
Scottish ‘Bag-A-LibDem’ Champion 1995 onward.
233. Bono
Anniversary of Mumbai:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8379828.stm
All other wanky governmental department references to “Pathfinders” sullies the name of these guys:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathfinder_(RAF)
229. But, unfortunately, it’s true tom. You SNP supporters are incredibly sensitive bunnies.
This is the internet: people aren’t *always* going to treat you with kid gloves.
So take it like a man and don’t be so childish.
234. I’m not sure Gove is that clever. I think he - or his advisers - just screwed up. Nonetheless the effect of the error and the ensuing arguments HAS been, perversely, to keep the story running. And as everything about this story is utterly toxic for the left - that can only be a good thing for Tories.
Maybe Gove subconsciously sensed this, without even realising, and cheated to great effect; i.e. maybe he handled the ball into the net like the Tory Thierry Henry of the political penalty area.
212. Interesting Cohen article.
So we can expect the anti-semitic dogwhistling from the bots to intensify over the next few months.
“Elijah” Pickles, “Aaron” Lansley, that sort of thing.
The usual thoughtful stuff.
212 ‘Labour is now trying to secure a segment of the inner-city by abandoning what few liberal principles it has left and cosying up to the Muslim Brotherhood and Jammat-i-Islami.’
Nice quote. Labour’s core vote strategy is incredibly myopic and self-destructive.
235
The UKIP showing in the Euro Democracy Demonstrator (limited interactivity) will allow the BBC to dwell ‘thoughtfully’ on their effects on the Conservative vote…
240 make that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathfinder_(RAF)
232: Clearly pathfinders in the fourth sector….
(see the Thick of it, which has captured the governments ability to come up with meaningless dwaddle perfectly)
the Fink speaks!
I had been helping David Cameron prepare for PMQs, here’s the advice I would have given him.
Actors have a rule - never work with animals and children.
As a political adviser I developed a rule - never cite real people.
In my first week as Director of the Conservative Research Department - and thankfully (purely fortuitously) as a result of work done just before I got there - Brian Mawhinney used a CRD attack on the Camden Asian Women’s Hopscotch Association.
It was then revealed that this was a respectable group that helped battered women and had Princess Anne as its patron.
I wouldn’t say this happened every time we mentioned a real place or a real person, but it happened on an unaccceptably large proportion of occassions.
Damilola Taylor, Tony Martin, Darcy Bussell - it always went wrong when real people were mentioned.
Even when we used a lion on a poster, a story appeared variously suggesting it was gay (presumably from a gay pride) or a manic depressive lion.
Labour had it with Jennifer’s Ear, IDS with Rose Addis. And now DC has it with the school.
Real people? They’re a nightmare.
Posted by Daniel Finkelstein on November 26, 2009 at 12:24 PM in Conservative Party | Permalink | Post to Twitter
239
Please accept my apologies for my unthinking biliousness
246 or even: http://tinyurl.com/RAFpathfinders
:grrrr!!!!:
#241 Casino Royale
Don’t think I won’t get my own back-probably when you least expect it
248. “As a political adviser I developed a rule - never cite real people.”
Very good advice.
249. Bono
Accepted!
Notice that “Muslim” or “Islamic” completely missing from that Beeb article?
251. OOOOOH! Scary!!
250. PB’s comment code doesn’t like underscores.
248. True up to a point: when it comes to real people, politicians should Handle with Care. But sometimes, indeed quite often, the only way to make a case is to use real life and real stories. And this can be done to great effect: cf Cameron’s obviously genuine and very effective anger about Baby P.
240 - Don Bennett stood as a Liberal candidate in 1945.
Lucky buggers:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8380382.stm
200 SeanT. Yes this might explain why the left have freaked out on here (last night especially) - with Gabble and Tim in unison (normally they seem to take shifts) and ministers at PMQs yesterday looking especially uncomfortable in their seats with the PM making veiled threats that you (The Tories) might regret bringing this subject up.
250, 255 - you can always use hypertext to insert the link.
left-arrowa href=”"right-arrowLink Nameleft-arrow/aright-arrow
Where left-arrow =
255 “PB’s comment code doesn’t like underscores.”
Well, that’s something I’ve learnt today…
259 - oops - you also need to insert the http://linkname between the speechmarks.
256
I’m sorry to say, Bennett switched to the National Front in the ’70’s.
Mark - weren’t the Pathfinders also used to mark up the Drop Zones for the Airborne on D-Day (as mentioned in Band of Brothers)? Or was that something different?
255. True - but I think it’s different when they’re cited *after* the MSM have already broken the story and established the facts.
If politicans are the first to do it it can become a battle of which MP has got the most forensic researchers.
258. It’s really very sad to see a once great political party reduced to fishing for votes among Islamist extremists and vote-riggers.
Alternatively it shows what a pitiful state Labour has been reduced to. Which could be a cause for celebration.
230. Sorry Neil. I won’t be voting Labour. Sanity forbids. And be careful what you accuse. It takes one to know one.
263, Sunil, that was Parachute Regiment pathfinder platoons. They still exist, the RAF pathfinders do not.
253
The BBC strives to ensure that, for some, there is only sunshine.
The Corporation inhabits a strange, strange world…
I’m astonished so many on here are still fussying over the entirely tangental “facts” of Camerons Schools allegations. Its absolutely nothing to do with specifics and everything to do with political space. Yesterday morning this sort of thing was Taboo. Today it isn’t. 2 years ago cameron would have ignited a fire storm. Today he’s going to get away with it scot free.
The oublic mood has shifted, the political class including myself didn’t shift with it and so we had classic market failure and the BNP moved into the space. Camerons move is a minor corrective rather like M and S finally sorting out its ready meals offer or waitrose essentials being introduced.
I may need a stiff gin to counternance it all but he is doing the body politic a favour. If he has actually cocked up the “facts” then thats a bonus in that he won’t get cocky but i do feel the “facts” are really nothing to do with it in this case.
263 Sunil, they may have been the US paratroop Pathfinders - who had a pretty torrid time of it, I believe…
To Mike Smithson re. 238 Jack W - when Jack picks up the poster of the year award (to add to all those other gongs and accolades), this is the one I want to see quoted again ahead of the acceptance speech.
Yesterday somebody posted this (item 117)
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/25/which-way-is-mori-going-to-go-next/#comment-1322888
and today the BBC publish this
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8380105.stm
So it would appear that 117 is correct just not in the way he thought.
267. don
Ah, I get you! Thanks!
270. “Today he’s going to get away with it scot free.”
Careful. Cameron is a Unionist remember?
Pathfinders etc - a Pathfinder Tour was 45 Operations. At a long-running average of losses of 5%, not much hope of survival.
270. On a more serious note YS you are absolutely right.
IMHO the move is long overdue and I’m delighted Cameron is tackling it.
Posted on Order Order
How David Cameron is trying to buy the next election
Source: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/11/26/how-to-buy-no-10-115875-21850874/
“David Cameron’s attempts to buy the next election with millions of pounds from secretive wealthy backers are today exposed by the Mirror.
An investigation found the Conservative leader is using the cash to carpet-bomb voters with expensive propaganda.”
275 - Scots aren’t free. They’re very expensive.
257. Bennett actually sat as a Liberal MP for 31 days in 1945…
272 JohnB, with consistently insightful posts such as the one at 270, I reckon ‘yellow submarine’ is more deserving of the Poster of the Year award.
278. HPS.
Is that the best they can do?
278, even for the Mirror, that’s pathetic.
Political party receives money and uses it to advance its chances of power. Whatever next?
Extremeschoolsgate rumbles on
Yesterday’s exchanges redux
Cameron. “You gave schools with links to extremists government money from an anti-extremist fund”
Balls. “No, the money we gave them was from the Nursery fund”
Well, that’s ok then…
Cameron is not letting go
Mr Cameron maintained that two schools which recieved money from Hizb ut-Tahrir also received government money.
“Two schools are being funded and run by an organisation with links to extremists - no one is denying that,” he said.
“They did receive government money - that is another fundamental point that the government now seems to be admitting. That’s the problem.”
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/schools_with_extremist_links_received_govt_money_cameron_maintains.html
278 - Oh no, he is using money to pay for adverts.. something Labour would NEVER do!!
278 - ah, the old Ashcroft story. I’m sure Mirror readers will have been fascinated by this…
Have they, I wonder, done an investigation to how sitting Labour MPs in marginal seats have for several years been able to “carpet-bomb voters with expensive propaganda” paid for by the taxpayer?
278. It gets better. Dennis McShane just stood up in the HoC and quoted that article, saying that Lord Ashcroft is “corrupt”. He has not yet withdrawn the remark
278 – Earlier this week it was reported that the Tories received more donations in the ¾ qtr than Labour, and this is how the ‘Mirror’ interoperates such an out come.
Derisory.
272 John B. “….when Jack picks up the poster of the year award …”
Very funny. You’d get better odds on Gabble being revealed as the luv child of Norman Tebbitt and Ann Widecombe !!
279 Tabman.
233 - The key point for me is that If Cameron and Gove have any evidence of extremist teaching in the school they should present it. There’s too many people ready to jump on issues like this for their own ends, Jewish Schools being attacked over events in the Middle East is a recent one.
All has done so far is replicate the actions of the mob who attacked a pediatricians house after getting their spelling confused.
276
And the pilots had usually completed at least one tour in an operational bomber squadron already, and were selected because of their prowess…
287 - Did he withdraw it?
Cameron excoriates unacceptable Muslims and their involvement with ‘clean skins’ and Brown comes back with the ‘decent Muslims’ mantra.
This is a vote loser for Cameron involving votes he doesn’t need and doesn’t court.
What he is saying is that, by all means Muslims vote Tory, but be aware that we will no longer support organisations inimical to our people.
Cameron dog-whistled me yesterday and I am no dog !
Agree with people who say that the c*ck-up was endearing.
290, you think it’s acceptable for a Hizb ut-Tahrir front to receive taxpayer funds?
289 – “Auchentennach Village Rude Vegetable Prize Winner 1937”
Intriguing, care to elaborate JackW . .
286
MP’s who do that sort of thing should be shot!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8380559.stm
Don’t you think?
278. I wonder what their next pearl of wisdom will be?
EXCLUSIVE “POPE IS CATHOLIC!”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5574128/smoking-guns-and-missing-memos.thtml
Chilcott starts to get interesting……
287 McShane of the ridiculously high office expenses claimed against a garage? When it comes to unusual financial arrangements, Mr Toad of Rotherham is in no position to cast aspersion over others.
263. I don’t think Bennett joined the National Front. He stood for the “National Fellowhip” in the 1960s, which was an entirely different outfit.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Fellowship
278 - nice comment from Dave to the Mirror reporter, as reported in the Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2009/nov/26/daily-mirror-davidcameron
190 Truce, Rightisright? Didn’t know there was a war?
301 - Bit silly, really. Just provides hostages to fortune.
292. Not so far
298 “Was the UN weapons inspection an American contrivance designed to fail?”
Er, hello….!
298 ‘Missing memos have become the Chilcot inquiry’s dominant feature: this is the seventh I have noticed.’
No surprises there then.
290
tim,
I thought Paxman produced evidence of what the headmistress had written on a certain website and isn’t there evidence of people being assocatied with the school who have doubtful provenance, and why did she refuse to answer questions about it? Didnt she say ” certain people were no longer linked to the school” and as resgards funding,unding was given because IIRC it had been suspended pending an investigation.
Seems fairly clear to me that something isnt right.
The Mirror are starting to sound like The Guardian in the run-up to the London election. 6 months of this and they will explode.
No-one is donating to a bankrupt governing party so they suggest money is the root of all evil.
Hilarious.
307 - I’ve seen the same think done with a Jewish School in Manchester where local Islamists tried to link them to the settler movement.
Its not pretty watching the extra security go on.
308 - While there is a large element of the Mirror just wanting to bash the Tories over this, the extent to which the political system can be influenced by a small number of people with a lot of money should worry everyone.
290 tim - No, it’s not only ‘extremist teaching’ that is the issue; that would be very hard to prove that unless you had unannounced spot checks by (presumably) Arabic-speaking inspectors who listened at the door at lessons, or if you bugged classrooms. Even then you’d really need to listen over many months to assess what was really happening. If there were any overtly extremist teaching going on, it’s hardly likely to occur whilst there’s an Ofsted inspector sitting in the class.
The issue is about funding (and allowing to operate) a school linked to an extremist group. Are those running, controlling, and influencing the school fit and proper persons to do so?
308. The silly thing is that the left have been trying to “get” Cameron ever since he become leader and these attacks have achieved absolutely nothing beyond exciting Labours core support (and even there the evidence is poor seeing as Labour have been polling lower and lower in every major national election since 2006)
310: Or the way in which a small number of union officals can donate huge amounts to the labour party in return for ‘modernisation’
Talking of newspapers committing suicide..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/26/london-evening-standard-drops-edition
The standard of The Standard (sorry) has dropped much faster after going free than I thought. We’ll soon go from having three evening papers in London to having none.
Nick Clegg is the only non Labour MP in South Yorkshire. There was a very big speech for him to make after the BNP win on the Yorks and Humber euro list. It should probably have been Rotherham ( referencing the Jamie Oliver series ) and could have been a distinctively liberal response to the BNP success. The details would need negotiating but broadly.
- he should have apologised on behalf of the political class for the failing of the White Working Class.
- he should have acknowledged a legitimate sense of greviance without going into specifics.
- he should have talked about local leadership and the flight of community leaders from the estates. Time to think about Police houses or accomodation for the local Head Teacher again.
- he should have called for a broadening of criteria for allocation of social housing. You can now “earn” points for allocation by “good” behaviours like locality, longevity and service as well as earning them by multiple deprivations. If this was all to scary he should have used service personal as amodel.
- he should have taken an axe to the call centre culture of councils and made the most extreme speech by a liberal leader ever about public sector vested interests.
- he should have linked decarbonisation to the creation of the kind of livable semi skilled manual jobs that have been gutted by globalisation.
- he should have appropriated the phrase ” hate crime” for the poor. Linked poverty to living in high crime areas and the shocking state of what goes unreported in todays britain.
- finally he should have said that democracy relies on a single Demos and talked frankly about the speed with which our demos is turning over via immigration. at least acknowledging both sides of the ledger would have been a start.
- finally finally he should have talked about personal service budgets for public services and talked about widening the pupil premium idea to everything starting with police funding.
310, perhaps. The money must come from somewhere. I didn’t see the Mirror crying when Sainsbury gave Labour money.
310 - That’s life. Money talks the world over and in every industry.
Public want more BBC pay transparency according to poll (ComRes)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8380654.stm
309 tim - This is the first time ever we have crossed swords. I have more regard for you than any other poster on pb.com.
Your connection with a Jewish School in Manchester is spurious.If it weren’t I would be defending you again for the umpteenth time.
Jewish kids in Manchester are under threat…and not just from Muslim extremists.
Nobody of note believes that the way Jewish kids are taught constitutes a threat to the nation.
With you all the way on Kaminski and the Latvian SS but not here.
14
There are few things in life more pointless than reading a midday edition of a local evening paper.
309
I see tim,(i have no knowledge of the school you mention) its better to ignore it and suppress the truth so there is no need for “security” .Interesting way of thinking, but I doubt many would agree with you.
311 - I don’t know, are they?
I suspect there’s rather a lot of people I’d not like running schools, like the creationists who Cameron and Blair have courted, or the people who hushed up the sex abuse at Ampleforth.
What would our definition of a fit and proper person be?
I loathe Hizb’s philosophy as much as I do the BNP’s, but its a big step to say that a BNP supporter should not be a school governor for instance.
I’ve just seen that ‘Borders’ have applied for administration: shame, the Internet claims another victim.
317 - It doesnt have to be though. It should be very easy to cap the amount that people can contribute to political parties.
Re the Standard, I’m an avid reader, it remains the best daily paper in my opinion and I havent noticed a drop off since it became free. I will be slightly annoyed if it changes to a 2pm delivery time as I like to read it over lunch but I hope the experiment succeeds.
314 David is it just me, or is the ES getting thinner since it became a freebie? How long do you give it?
321 - Thats not what I said at all.
I usually agree with Gove on these issues.
I just suspect he’s made a bad error this time.
I firmly believe that all extremism in religious schools should have a lght shone on it.
As for the state funding, it was nursery vouchers whcih can be paid to childminders and nannies.
I hope you are ready to do some serious vetting.
324: I do beleive the tories were willing to go down that road if the same was applied to the unions.
Labour didn’t want it.
324 - I hope it works as I love having something to read when I go into town but you honestly haven’t noticed the quality dropping?
It used to take me a while to read, it doesn’t at the moment. Another 20 fewer people in editorial can’t help.
311. Quite right Richard N.
Isn’t it extraordinary that once again, the voice of the bunker is defending the involvement of Hizb ut tahrir in schools.
319 Jewish kids in Manchester are under threat from anti semites on the left and right and the Islamist far left/right.
The situation is not helped by someone claiming that they’re linked to the deaths of Palestinian kids due to the opinions of one of their teachers.
If Hizb are found to have influence over this school, I think it should close.
I’ve yet to see any evidence.
325 - I’ve found it tends to fluctuate more than it used to. A couple of weeks ago I picked up an edition that felt like a phone book; the next day, it felt like London Lite.
315.YS. You should really email Nick with these thoughts if you haven’t already. I think he might be interested as recently he has been showing more signs of thinking outside the box.
“..317 - It doesnt have to be though. It should be very easy to cap the amount that people can contribute to political parties…”
Has this thought only occurred to you since the Labour party started to lag so far behind in the fund raising stakes?
The unions have been behind massive amounts of funding to Labour and to really take the piss they have been providing virtually the same amount to Labour as they received in modernisation funding. Did you raise this as a problem at any time?
330: tim=the Arsene Wrenger of PB.com
I did not see it…
325 - For the free model to work, it needs to be getting BIGGER to fit in more quality ads. The Private Eye figures (usual caveats) suggest that unless it stops haemorrhaging money it can’t last long.
With News Int and the DMG backing them the other frees could have limped on forever (at a loss) but unless this Russian fella wants to keep chucking his personal finance away the paper needs to start making money. 600,000 free papers are not cheap to produce.
I was shocked at the decision to take the Standard free. Thelondonpaper was already gone and the London Lite was pretty much certain to follow so The Standard was going to almost certainly put on paying readers. I wonder if they blinked and accidentally fell into the middle of the road.
Re 258 the ‘lucky buggers’ with the Anglo Saxon haul:
The gold strip pictured on the article bears the inscription “Rise up O Lord, and may thy enemies be dispersed and those who hate thee be driven from thy face.”
Maybe Mandelson will buy that.
330 tim - Jews are always going to be under threat in Northern Europe irrespective of the objective evidence that says they shouldn’t be.
Here you are jumping to a Party political conclusion that the assertions of Gove and Cameron are unfounded.
I doubt this.Cameron’s attack was a vote loser.I think it was made in good faith.
336 I think they should employ ‘who do you think you are’ to trace the ancestors of the saxon gold buriers and distribute it to them. Shoudln’t be too hard
OT, David Roe, on the “newspapers committing suicide” theme, do you think anything will come of the plan to take money from Microsoft to take the Murdoch papers out of the Google search results?
315 Blimey.
335 When my PE subscription times out, I’ll cancel it - it’s crap these days.
I used to sometimes buy a copy in Tesco before my own one arrived in the post as I was keen to read it - now it turns up and sometimes goes in the bin still in the wrapper as I’ve been so disappointed in it.
It used to make me LOL or gasp in disbelief - now it’s almost a total yawn or full of nasty little stabs that rehash old stuff.
Oh and their pathetic message board thing - what a load of cobblers, they seem to think it’s satirical - its not, just carp. In fact I wonder if it was written by that other satirical genius George Monbiot
This is going to be really messy for Tony Blair - and Labour - when he has to give evidence: everything for a year was a sham.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8380139.stm
295 SSC. Ah yes the 1937 Auchentennach Village Show !!! …. nowt been like it before or since.
It started when the recently installed English pastor was misheard to announce the “rude vegetable competition”. He meant the root vegetable competition !!
At the competition unvieling four spinsters hit the village floor, three spinsters rushed the stage, twelve OAP’s smiled contentedly, the pastor fainted and his wife placed one vegetable down her skirt !!
The Obscene Publication Squad sought prosecutions and the competition runner-up was convicted of offending public decency but fled to Amsterdam. Mrs Jack W and I were reunited some months later !!
341, I’m letting mine lapse as well. I do enjoy the Supreme Leader letters, but I can get free comedy from the Mash, LabourList and now James Macintyre.
341 Is this why some people are calling for Hislop to go?
“212 ‘Labour is now trying to secure a segment of the inner-city by abandoning what few liberal principles it has left and cosying up to the Muslim Brotherhood and Jammat-i-Islami.’
Nice quote. Labour’s core vote strategy is incredibly myopic and self-destructive.”
If it destroys Labour, good. It’s the fact that it risks destroying the rest of us that worries me.
337 - I said yesterday that I’d back Gove if he showed evidence of Hizb involvement, and I also think Camerons point was in good faith, but I’m depressed at their inability to get their facts right.
Statements like that, when proven to be wrong, help those who genuinely are a threat to our society, rather than people like this
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amnesty-international/the-story-of-maajid-nawaz_b_370528.html
who are part of the solution.
Every paper is screwed when you get info for free on the web…
some are just more screwed than others.
BBC news ticker saying General Motors are going to cut 350 jobs in the UK…
340 – Blimey indeed, YS highlights Clegg’s failure to address the issue in spectacular form. Will YS forego PB’s ‘poster of the year’ or become LD party leader?
YS=shoo in for poster of the year imo. At least he should be.
Alan Sugar describes self as “honest voice”, two weeks after angrilly telling us the UK was no longer in recession:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8379505.stm
343 - Classic,
I may be wrong as I only caught the end of the conversation on Radio 4 this morning but didn’t the Lancelet call for a mass culling of British cows to stop us eating meat and as a by product also reduce carbon emissions ?? or was I dreaming?
“And in a reference to his TV show, he told peers: “I am the new boy on the block. In your Lordships’ House I am certainly the apprentice.”
Bring back the guillotine……..
351 Not if JackW decides to rig the votes.
350. I will definitely be voting for YS as poster of the year, and if his thoughtful and genuinely liberal views prevailed within the Lib Dems my contempt for them would be greatly reduced. I’m not holding my breath on thre latter point, mind.
Statement from the LSE:
The London Stock Exchange will resume trading of all securities at 14:00hrs.
[Could be a bumpy ride]
I’m a celebrity get me out of Dubai:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/26/85506/im-a-celebrity-get-me-out-of-dubai/
335. How is Metro doing?
Evening Standard has gone drastically downhill over the last two years - and I mean in quality rather than circulation.
351 Slack. “YS=shoo in for poster of the year imo. At least he should be.”
Will the PB blue team vote Lib Dem YS ?!?!
Political Betting - Lib Dem Gain From Right Wing conservative !!
Dubai -isn’t it ultimately backed up by its wealthy cousin Abu Dhabi?
Is it worth going ? My wife wants to but I am sceptical -to me its a long plane journey in order to do something horrendous like shopping and possibly camel riding . I know you can drink and that but its hardly ibiza
357. One wonders why intelligent men like Yellow Submarine and Tabman actually remain in the Liberal Democrats?
I, for one, would welcome them into the Conservative Party with open arms.
360: You try too bad Jack. I couldn’t even be arsed to read Jarhead (TL:DR) Nearly all of YS’s posts makes clear and perfect sense. (For a Lib Dem).
356 PtP. I cherish that single vote win.
Never has so much bunce been expended on such a fine cause !!
362 - I think thats what worries them.
360 - speaking as one blue, YS is comfortably in my top 3 posters here. I’d very happily vote for him.
355. Sugar = pompous arrogant egotistical humourless d’ckhead
354 no you were not dreaming. it was risible.
beeb appear to being dragged into Climategate
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230943/Climate-change-scandal-BBC-expert-sent-cover-emails-month-public.html
Take a look at the comments too
Superb news if true
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1231166/Dumbed-GMTV-faces-axe-poor-ratings.html
I thnk Yellow Submarine is being love bombed a bit too much here!! He is very typical of the lib dems in being articulate and intelligent but the ultimate test of a politcian is being able to govern and beng pragmatic-not sure the lib dems are that good at that
367 bit harsh!!! Were you an employee of his ?
370
love bombed or not, YS is a must read poster.
341. don’t forget it is very very difficult for Private Eye (of course it isn’t what it once was I agree) given the very extreme defamation laws the UK has (which are at last starting to attract attention it seems).
365. I can give you a hug too tim if you’re feeling unloved?
363 Slack. You’re the perfect critic. Doesn’t read what he attacks !!
BTW for those of us whose mother tongue is English what does “You try too bad Jack.” mean ??
I see William Hill have, for the second time in a month, changed the GE odds -
Conservative Majority 4/11 from 1/3
No Overall - 5/2 from 7/2
Labour majority 10/1 from 14/1
Interesting.
370: Nooooooo…how will Derek surive without his missus working?
374 whch will survive the longest -the Evening Standard or Private Eye?
334 - I noticed that. He has used that particular little trick a couple of times recently
372. No. But I really despise the man. I think he’s a total C—.
What’s more he hasn’t made a decent product for over 20 years. And I’m not sure the Amstrad PC was even that good *then*
His only main business line is Sky boxes now. Even they are sh1t. Mine breaks down and corrupt itself regularly and I’m told this is very common.
Apart from that he’s alright.
Absolutely agree with the widely held view of YS.
A pb star. A must read.
376: Did I write ‘try too bad?’ Oops…try too hard I meant.I’m sorry
Its not personal…I just didn’t think it was great, so I didn’t read it after the first few entries. Don’t take it too hard, please.
If ITV offers a TV version of Today, they’ll be quids in. The last thing they want to do is “Breakfast”
the FTSE is not doing much today
The problem with GMTV is that it has constant adverts and people can’t be bothered with that first thing in the morning when they have limited time. And I miss Fiona Phillips!
Imagine if David Cameron had to quit because Conservative backbenchers decided he was too much of a ‘tree-hugger’.
That is the situation in which Malcolm Turnbull finds himself.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Australia-Climate-Change-Kevin-Rudd-And-Malcolm-Turnbull-Battling-For-New-Law-Amid-Revolt/Article/200911415470567
OT for those interested - another strange set of conflicting temp graphs have been spotted
First comment on page 12
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/tips_for_thursday_november_26/P220/
383. lol.
ITV are really stupid, aren’t they?
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=494639
Who on earth is going to pay to watch ITV2?
385 - Errrm - they stopped all trades for a while but at last check it was just shy of 2% down
Sterling being bashed a bit as well
http://uk.reuters.com/business/currencies
391 I woudl pay about a £1 a year (just in case ) but definitely no more than £2
367 What like Dick Bacon who is trying to soften us up this afternoon [again] by standing in for Mayo?
I’m finding myself texting in to say - shut up/stop being a gobby idiot/this is meant to be an intelligent programme/you aren’t funny.
He was bad enough when I fell into bed a bit blotto and soon zzzzd off, listening to him when sober is a nightmare.
There may be trouble ahead…. (For Blair / Labour)
I”raq inquiry: deal might have been ‘signed in blood’ by Blair and Bush in 2002
Tony Blair and George Bush might have “signed in blood” their agreement to topple Saddam Hussein a year before the Iraq war, according to Sir Christopher Meyer, Britain’s former ambassador to Washington. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/6661145/Iraq-inquiry-deal-might-have-been-signed-in-blood-by-Blair-and-Bush-in-2002.html
391 lol no doubt Sir (lol) Fred Goodwin loaded RBS with a load of Dubai debt
O/T but anyone seen this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/6655087/Russian-brides-revealing-wedding-dress-is-web-sensation.html
Mum and dad must be so proud
357 Conservatives for YS rools ko! I wil also be voting for YS though will feel guilty at not voting for Jack W purely because he must be a relative somewhere with all that Jacobite stock coursing through his blue blooded veins.
369 One of those DMail posters has the name “Gordon Browns Underpants Drawer, Trying to escape the UK”
390: £2.50 per month? For what? Whats on ITV2 anyway?
Actually come to think of it…I cannot think of the last time I watched something on ITV1 either….nope…nothing.
383 Slack. I very rarely take anything on PB “too hard”.
JARHEAD wasn’t intended to be anything other than a little light diversion. I fear its chances of being short-listed for the Booker Prize are sizeably less than slight and I’m not holding out for the vast spondolicks from the Nobel Literature Award just yet !!
As for the PBer of the year. I have form …. that amounted a couple of years ago to fourth place and equal fourth at that !!!! caught on the finishing line as I was by none other than Nick Palmer …. Yes bloody Nick Palmer - Mrs Jack W did chortle .. in between shaping vegetables !!
390 Unfortunately however as ITV1 has the X Factor they would have to pay me to subscribe to it!!
The precidents for liberals occupying political positions on overwhelmingly Tory votes aren’t happy. If we aren’t careful we could could end up with Mark Senior leading a Asquithian rump on PB.com and claiming to be the “real” Poster of the Year.
On a more serious note. I do think liberals need to think a bit more seriously about the political fragmentation amongst the “White Working Class.” The two foundation stones are undoubtedly the allocation formula for social housing and control over services particulalry policing. On the later its surely time to look at making vouchers work. You could run trails by breaking the various “Funny Money” funding streams into vouchers. Strip out the entire allocations apparatus and make community safety projects - and the police overtime budget - bid directly to people for the cash.
Richard Reeves - another diaspora liberal - has coined the term “Anti Social Housing”. Of course we needs millions more units but in the meantime we need to rebuild social solidarity and virtue by making at least some part of the scoring system about posit contribution to society as well as personal deprivation. We’ll never break the ghetto effect that is now self reinforcing till we do.
364 LOL!
I’m full of admiration, Jack. You must have had Jacobites stationed outside every internet cafe in Harpenden!
:) 
397: It’s just like Bercow in reverse
393. I wish I could listen to 5live and doze off Platy! Unfortunately, I have to beaver away at work.
(I’d prefer to work away at beaver, but still)
399. I haven’t watched ITV for years. Utter utter dross.
How is that channel still alive?
385 ‘the FTSE is not doing much today’
It’s Thanksgiving. All the Spam bankers in London will be on the lash.
397 Easterross. Now abandoned by my fellow Scots and Jacobite relatives too !!
A lost deposits beckons !!
394. I’m afraid I really don’t see how any more juice can be squeezed out of the (very sour) Iraq lemon.
We all know there were no WMDs, that the UK went along with an already-made US decision to invade and doctored evidence to justify it (misleading parliament and the public in the process), and that the aftermath of the invasion was a bl**dy mess (literally).
What’s new?
Harry Hill is just about the only thing I watch on ITV1.
407. Ah! So you “do a cry” with a
and not a ;-(
I geddit now.
394 Floater. I was at a NS lunch [Geoffrey did these every week or so and invited about 8 peeps to hob nob/smooze] with Meyer just after he stepped down as ambassador - he was really very erm frank about what he thought about the snuggly relationship between the two.
I’m not surprised by this at all.
TBH I thought he had a rather too big opinion of himself [and didn't change my mind when I read his autobiog].
402 vouchers for policing would not work imo. Voucher systems work when people are in possesion of the full facts like which nursery is best in their area (they will soon find how good a nursry is if they send thier kids to it) or to buy a product.
Policing by its nature is not easily read by the population at large and you could have a greater misallocation of funds than at present by leting people decide where budgets are spent within it
Sad Casino:
(just getting it out of my system)
402 YS, Parish Cllr Senior has to find his way out of Dunny-on-the-Wold before he can enter the world of real politics.I dread to think how he reacts when the Tories seize numerous parliamentary seats in which his brave yellow freedom fighters have liberated the oppressed masses from evil, fat, baby eating, underworked Tory councillors up and down the country in valliant council by-election battles since 2005
But for something lighter
Nick Cleg=Neil Kinnock
:D 
:D 
402 I agree with you btw on social housing although an over anal implementation of a points system there would be as bad as having no points system
403 PtP. Only outnumbered I’m sure by hordes of cross-dressers brightening up the the days racing at computer terminals at Cheltenham race course !!
396. Where I used to live there was a clergyman who had rather an eye for the ladies.
At one wedding he officiated, the bride wore a dress with a plunging neckline which only just covered her nipples and went down to her belly button.
As he stood oggling at the altar, the choir could hardly suppress their giggles as they launched into the first hymn: “All things Bright and Beautiful,”
407 Jack at least your vote at the General Election wont be 10,000 behind La Soubry
The Hon Member for Broxtowe ret’d will be able to devote all his time to the Cats Protection League
409
The only thing I have watched in the last yr emanating from ITV is Doc Martin, and I never watch it live, I record it to avoid the ads and trailers. I hrs prog is actually about 43 mins methinks.
I will watch the last two episodes of Foyles War that are coming out soon.
402. An interesting historical parrallel.
Personally I would suggest Mark Senior claiming to be the real poster of the year has more in common with that Polish woman from the asylum claiming to be the daughter of the Tsar Nicholas II.
408 . Anything that helps to put Blair on trial as a war criminal!
OT Wow - climategate on Google is growing like topsy jumped 700k to 6,790,000 in 4 hrs.
417 - Jack, did JARHEAD ever conclude?
414. Think is Mark Senior isn’t even a Liberal Democrat - he’s a Tory Hater.
But Labour ain’t much cop round where he lives so he has to join the most feasible Tory ejecting party he can find.
Perhaps the PB poster of the year coudl have a spoiler called the ‘yellow submariner’ !
It worked in Winchester (for a while) with a ‘literal democrat’ I believe
339 - No comment
412. I think there might be scope for trails of ” Community Safety” money being made considerably more transparent and more dorectly democratic. The problem with all voucher systems is that middle class capacity acts as a top up in value in its self. If residents of very, very high crime areas had say £50 or £100 slips that were redeemable by the varying providers you’d have an automatic incentive for the sector to engage, be transparent and tailor products to areas. The other issue is ASB which would invariably be higher up force agendas if some sort of market mechnaism was in place.
420 I forget that ITV exists - the only time I’ve watched it was via YouTube - twice, once Kerry Katona’s car crash [I couldn't resist it] and Gordon’s intv on GMTV about a year ago.
415 reminds me to tell you folks that Martin Day was sending his regards yesterday when I was chatting to him. He has been lurking and feels sad that Nick Clegg wont have the opportunity to read his enlightening PB posts for a while. He is busy trying to persuade some fellow called Clarkson to stand for parliament or something.
What do I watch on ITV? The X Factor, of course. Stacey to win!!!lol!!11!!
430 - Any progress on his job prospects?
430. Surely he could find time to stretch to one or two cartoons though?
419 Easterross. Most harsh on Nick Palmer …. bloody equal fourth place indeed …. groan, mutter, grunt, splutter ….
424 Tabman. Yup. There was an epilogue on the Monday.
401 - Yellow Sub, would love to talk offline as I agree with so much of what you say. Mike can put us in touch if you’re agreeable.
421 Did Tsar Nicholas II have a holiday home in Dunny-on-the-Wold? Maybe Parish Councillor Senior is his great great great grand lovechild.
374 - That is no excuse for flogging dead horses the way it often does. I agree that the message board is shocking and I don’t read it. I also think the names taking up so much of the letters page is ridiculous and cheap. It was funny for about three weeks. I’ve not yet read past SoS this week.
If I’m honest, I only really read it for scurrilous gossip about journalists I know
371. Of course Tories love what he says - that’s because he is one of them, masquerading as a LibDem.
Note that EVERY post he makes contains a ‘more in sorrow than in anger’ attack on the LibDems or Nick Clegg.
Pathetic really.
402. The problem is that the ‘respectable’ working class my grandparents belonged to has already largely disappeared as a result of exogenous social changes (e.g. employment shifts) and the corrosion of core institutions and moral attitudes that sustained it - the latter partly resulting from perverse incentives in the benefit system.
This has been a process that has taken place over decades and we are kidding ourselves if we think we can reverse it by tweaking social housing formulae and the like. Once broken, such things can rarely be put back together.
428. Same argument applies to any voucher system though. Particularly education.
436 Easterross. Was Dunny-in-the-Wold in Norfolk or Suffolk ?? …. Tsar Nick II certainly visited Sandringham !?!
Dreadful stuff coming out of Ireland this afternoon.
Church ‘had immunity to hide abuse’
(UKPA) – 9 minutes ago
The Catholic hierarchy in Ireland was granted immunity to cover up child sex abuse among paedophile priests in Dublin, a damning report has revealed
Authorities enjoyed a cosy relationship with the Church and did not enforce the law as four archbishops, obsessed with secrecy and avoiding scandal, protected abusers and reputations at all costs.
Hundreds of crimes against defenceless children from the 1960s to the 1990s were not reported while gardai treated clergy as though they were above the law, an investigation by the Commission to Inquire into the Dublin Archdiocese revealed.
In a three-year inquiry, the commission uncovered a tactic of “don’t ask, don’t tell” throughout the Church.
Four archbishops - John Charles McQuaid who died in 1973, Dermot Ryan who died in 1984, Kevin McNamara who died in 1987, and retired Cardinal Desmond Connell - did not hand over information on abusers.
434 - ah, missed that. Very good. Put me down for a bottle of tonic, too
441. One wonders if there are any Catholic Priests that *don’t* abuse kids?
Why is it so prevalent in the Church? Does it naturally attract paedos or what?
443. Lack of alternative “outlets”?
439 On Education vouchers -I have already said earlier that I think they work in nurseries but once you get to schools I am not so sure. School standards (like it or not) are generally decided by who goes to them and not especially the quality of education within them. This is not always the case but its not coincidence that the best areas for housing produce the best schools .
443 probaly becaseu its one of those professions that are not that vetted well due to the inate trust people have (or maybe did have) in men of the cloth
442 Tabman. See 382 on this thread :
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/09/is-the-bnp-really-going-to-save-its-deposit-on-thursday/
443 - “power corrputs … ”
445 - educational outcomes are largely determined by attitude to education. That said, with the best will in the world, if 29 pupils in a class want to learn, and 1 wants to disrupt the lesson, then 30 kids won’t be learning anything.
446 I thinkt the whole confessional thing in catholic churches does nto help either. Its just unnatural that confession box thing imo
447 - thanks, yes, when I know it was there I found it!
443. The answer to that clearly seems to be ‘yes’. But why the Catholic church in particular? Is it something to do with the ‘celibacy’ stuff?
http://www.libdemvoice.org/follow-the-yellow-brick-road-the-liberal-democrats-general-election-campaign-16707.html
Will anyone even stand against Yellow Submarine? I fear it may be a coronation - and we know where that leads
452 I will stand
451 - “But why the Catholic church in particular?”
I would have thought “access” and “the ability to cover up” would be the two obvious answers to that one.
405 - ITV is still alive because people just ‘have it on’. There’s nothing on there to watch, its just part of the routine.
I’ve been round to many houses where people are just cooking, ironing, chatting, whatever, but have the TV on as background noise - usually ITV, from GMTV, via Jeremy Kyle to the nightly guff.
Had the misfortune of having to sit through an episode of X-Factor the other day. Narg! I’m perplexed as to who’d watch, who’d pay to phone in to vote etc… Beyond me totally!
As the, ahem, present holder of the Poster of the Year crown, I would be happy to hand it over to YS.
He is nearly always insightful, eloquent and interesting.
(I wouldn’t vote for me, if I wasn’t me, because I will happily confess to being not as Funny As I Used To Be, cause lately I have been writing books rather than comments. Also I have run out of ways to insult people. I am hopeful that the advent of a deeply disappointing Tory government will revive my pb bile duct.)
That said, is there a single YS post that anyone can point to and say: superb? i.e. a comment that is funny and clever and memorable and actually meaningful?
YS strikes me as more of a Ted Hughes of a commenter than a Philip Larkin, he strikes a consistently high standard, but maybe fails to reach the heights where you can recite lines from memory.
Hmm.
On that basis the award might better go to someone like Martin Coxall who (I believe) conjured “Gulags for Slags”.
Alternatively, we might consider giving it to Robert Smithson, who, with VIPA, actually changed the way we look at British politics - even if he is proved wrong.
Yes, my vote goes to Robert, with the estimable Yellow Sub a close second, along with Martin Coxall.
I’d also give tim a pb-ers honorary gong for being so bold and persistent despite being an idiot in a hostile crowd of idiot-haters, and for his noticing the similarity between Bob Crow and Ratko Mladic.
445. Very surprised to hear you say that rightisright. That is a typical argument of the left.
I disagree entirely.
443 - In the case of Ireland, the priests were helped by the fact the Church hierachy and parts of the state acted as the p–dophiles protectors.
455 sorry to hear that bondgate
440 Jack wasn’t it in both. After all Parish Cllr Senior walks on the same water as Rod Crosby.
452 MM we could put Mark Senior up against YS.
Just in from Martin Day, he said this is a newish one done around the time of his less than memorable departure from PB!!!
http://nickcleggneilkinnock.blogspot.com/ is hopefully the correct link
444/451. Yes I think so.
Human Beings need to have sex. End of.
If they don’t have a willing partner they will find someone else (or something else) to do it with. It’s totally unnatural to expect them not to.
None of this excuses abuse of young boys though. The Catholic Church should simply allow their Priests to marry like the CoE do.
And the offenders should be prosecuted.
441. I was educated at Christian Brothers schools, there was one brother at my grammar school who liked to slap boy’s bottoms and there were a number of rumours about things he got up to at night. AFAIK he was never accussed of any abuse though.
443. I’ve always thought a reason why it seems so prevalent in the catholic church is that Catholics traditionally had a very submissive and deferrential to the church and priests. This was especially true in Ireland where the church was a key part of the national identity, you would not have dared to speak out against a priest. This made it easy to get away with and therefore it attracted more paedos.
I’m off now as I’m a bit scared by all this right wing adulation.
435. Tabman - I have done some door knocking recently however my wittering on here is part of therapy of a recovering politican. I’m sure talking to you would be like hitting the bottle again!
To just to be Advocatus Diaboli for a moment and to pull the pin from the grenade as I leave.
Surely a Poster of the Year needs to be prolific, stand up against the herd, dominate threads and set agendas, have a signature style and however be percieved be part of the furnature?
Tim ?
One for SeanT:
Aztec influences in Nepal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadhimai_festival
457 Just not sure that education is that political in terms of market forces against state control that many politicians seem to think can solve it one way or the other.
To me gettign a good education for a broad amount of kids as possible is not relevant to a market forces versus state control debate.
i think more basic things such as improved discipline and respect in schools, better standard of exams etc will work more than vouchers
Anyone standing for PBer of the year who wishes me to appear on a bar chart with Only “your name inserted here” can stop tim under their moniker, the price is £100 per time.
465 lol sorry thats me ‘rightisright’ forgot to change my name back after a little joke
458. This is also true.
I believe Evelyn - with the Pierced Brosnan - also exposed a not dissimilar problem of endemic abuse in Irish Nun-Run Orphanages.
466 tim - Excellent! I take it the offer is open only to LibDems?
459 Is yellowsubmariner already on manoeuvres?
Are you Harriet Harman?
(and if so, hope you are better at the controls of a Trafalgar class sub than a Ford Fiesta…
)
466 Tim, without doubt you deserve a special category of award and please take that as the compliment it is meant to be!
469 - No, I’ll do a herd discount.
YellowsubmarinerPlease use your original name.
463 ‘Tim ?’
A non starter. He fails the pub rule.
466 - Careful, Tim. Posts as funny as that might get you Tory votes
474 Speaking of the pub - who is still on for this evening?
tim, I like your use of herd to describe the tory support on here. It gives the impression of a large number and substantial.
The term I would use for the labour support on here is thicket. Not very big, but thick and impenetrable.
458 - tim thi is something that also happened in England, they just moved them on to another parish or pressured the family, or worse still there may be male members of the family involved. These creeps also know exactly which children to target, thankfully I was too ‘gobby’ as a child, unfortunately I have a close friend who wasn’t.
I disagree that it’s the power that has corrupted them. The power over children and the ability to get away with it aided by the Catholic church attracts the vile b’stards.
“Why is it so prevalent in the Church? Does it naturally attract paedos or what?”
Partly same reason as paedophiles try and get jobs in children’s homes.
Partly religious people with “sinful” thoughts of any kind think that if they dedicate their life to a religion then God might cure them of it but all it does is put them into temptation.
The same thing will be going on in any religion where the priests are excessively respected and the congregation won’t talk.
463. “Surely a Poster of the Year needs to be prolific, stand up against the herd, dominate threads and set agendas, have a signature style and however be percieved be part of the furnature?”
That is certainly tim.
But tenaciously posting at all hours of the day and night - therefore dominating threads and becoming part of the furniture by default - is not a basis for being voted poster of the year.
My vote would go to Martin Coxall - even if he has been a little grouchy recently - for his razor sharp analysis and acerbic wit; he just makes me laugh and, often, makes my day!
YS in a close second.
Honourable mentions to Richard Nabavi and David Herdson who I just find a sheer pleasure to read.
I have a number of Irish mates (not quite sure why) who went to Christian Brothers schools - in England and Ireland.
They all report beatings and physical abuse on a fairly bestial level. So, why were the Brothers so kinky and weird?
I suspect the Catholic church attracts homosexuals out of proportion to their numbers in society. The same can certainly be said for the C of E. Gays are attracted to the church by the dressing up and the emotional fluffing around, it’s like opera but with more candles.
I suspect the celibacy requirement adds an extra level of sexual pressure to Catholic clergy - i.e. they can’t even have a wife and w*nk about boys in their spare time.
I suspect the untouchable status of the Catholic church within Catholic societies, plus the proximity of frustrated gay males to entirely submissive boys in their care, made p*dophilia irresistible to people who might have otherwise have resised for fear of exposure.
451 It isn’t only Catholic priests, and even there (thank God) not the majority of them but I think in countries like Ireland where the Church had a privileged position and where boys and girls became postulants at school, often at adolescence, were treated differently throughout their schooldays and then went to seminary, there must have been a considerable impact on their psychological and sexual development.
To a lesser extent children of the presbytery/manse especially in strongly Calvinist or Baptist area seem to produce a higher number of offenders than typical population.
My uncle became a priest quite late having been in Bomber Command and having lived a normal life (if being shot at a lot can be considered normal)until his late 20’s. He was of the opinion that the Church should prefer older entrants and doubtful that young men in their teens could or should really decide.
I’d vote for tim as poster of the year. He’s had more impact on the site than anyone else, to be honest.
481 - You seem to be confusing homosexuality with child abuse a little in that post.
399.
Whats wrong with ITV1, Gordon’s on the GMTV sosfa almost everyday ! Surely that’s a good enough reason to watch it …NOT !
In the case that i am familiar with, I only know of very young girls that were abused though that’s not to say there weren’t young boys I just do not know of any, please don’t think this is anything to do with homosexuality.
I would be sorely tempted to vote for tim as Poster of the Year.
Payday Tweet
Did you back the General Election to be in 2010 with Ladbrokes? We’ve paid out today. It was as big as 12/1 back in 2007.
484. No confusion, merely the facts.
As the Irish Justice Minister just said, the worst sexual abuse of children happened in Christian Brothers boys schools: it was homosexual pedophilia.
488 - Ah, facts. This is the definition of fact which goes like: “something that Seant believes is true”.
487 Martin Day is as deserving of the award as tim.
480.
Martin Coxall, definately funniest poster of the year… Sledgehammer Wit !
Richard Nabavi is almost always “Spot On”… quite brilliant
If anyone backed 2010 as the year of the next election with Ladbrokes, we’ve settled those bets today. Collect!
A losing result for The Magic Sign; we would have won a fortune had it been 2009 and at various points I was quite hopeful, but no luck.
The biggest price you could have got with us was 12/1 back in Sep 2007.
I’m always very sceptical of “poster of the year” awards, especially since what for me makes this site unmissable is the tapestry of views woven together. Some parts of the skein are, of course, more golden than others.
487. No, I think we should give tim a special award for sticking around, despite it all. Like those honorary Oscars they give for just still being alive.
Robert Smithson should get the overall Gong. VIPA was a serious piece of work.
487.
Please not Tim. He’s a Gordo Model 9000 (copy) !
484: Not really. One cannot deny that historicaly there must have been the attraction of a profession/lifestyle in which males shun sexual relations with women would have been attractive to homosexuals.
At least in the past that hidden/pent up sexual frustration could have been a factor leading to more potential for abuse.
It’s a difficult area to be sure, and one must be very careful treading in it.
482 - Ted, what was his aircrew role? Its not surprising that in hindsight BC men of a reflective nature would end up in the church.
463 - yellowsub, I tend to think of myself as semi-detatched as I hold both no elected office and a healthy scepticism of political activists (is this some wierd sort of self-loathing?).
That said, no worries and enjoy your postings!
445. Exactly right - the demographics of the catchment area affect school quality hugely.
Good primary schools are easier to find because they are smaller, therefore their catchment area is smaller, and can sometimes be homogeneously middle-class.
Bigger schools have bigger catchment areas, which ineluctably tend to encompass areas where savage illiterate scrotes with feral children live.
The handful of scrote kids then wrecks the local school for everyone.
It doesn’t take many. Frank Chalk (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Its-Your-Time-Youre-Wasting/dp/0955285402/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259248678&sr=8-1) reckons two scrotes per class of 30 and that’s it, lessons are bugg3red.
This is why it is fundamentally misguided for lefties to argue that the middle class monopolises the good schools. It’s only the middle class dominance of the school’s intake that makes them good in the first place. All the teachers could be Matthew Arnold, but it wouldn’t help if 6% of the pupils are the Bash Street Kids.
It is institutional leftist dogma to ascribe the excellence of a school to its buildings, bureaucracy and the producers: to the state’s top-down involvement, essentially. Where the credit really belongs is to the users. Of course, where a school is cr@p, the left either insists that it’s not cr@p at all, or blames parents who steered their well-behaved children into better schools.
Bussing children all over town on a lottery basis into the “best” schools, a la Brighton, simply distributes the scrotes among every school and achieves nothing but to ensure none stays good for long.
Equality of mediocrity is of course a most satisfactory outcome by the left’s standards. But as far as most parents are concerned, it makes more sense to concentrate the scrotes together so that at least it’s only other scrotes’ education they’re wrecking.
It’s hard to believe but there are still peoplein Ireland who are in various degrees of denial about clerical abuse preferring to believe that it’s all been created or exaggerated by the media.
Excellent lead article for this thread. Thanks Mike.
I think antifrank is on the money as usual when he advises considering the impact of votes for “Others” at an individual seats level rather than across the board.
But can we predict an overall effect on the GE outcome due to a rise in votes for “Others”? The key fight is of course Labour versus Tory. I suspect as votes for “Others” increase, they will be disproportionately more likely to be lost Labour votes than lost Tory votes.
So overall I suspect that it’s more a worry for Labour than the Tories that “Others” are on the rise.
499 - one way to deal with it is to remove the troublemakers ASAP to allow the others to get on with their lives and education.
The next question is what to do with those who’ve been removed?
500. That isn’t hard to believe at all, in a country where a large minority subscribes to the weird mix of Marxism, ethnic hatred, reactionary sectarianism and Celtic mythology that makes up the weltanschauung of Sinn Fein/IRA.