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Does dropping out of the 40s safety zone matter?

November 28th, 2009

What does it mean for the election outcome?

I’m not sure whether there’ll be any new polls in the Sunday papers and it would be really good to see a new ICM survey.

For the big trend in the past few few weeks has been the decline of the Tory share into the 30s so that now only ICM is showing a figure above that threshold. Polls tend to move in step changes and that might be what we have been seeing.

But does it matter? Are not the gap over Labour and what’s going on the the key marginals the really important indicators?

I’m not so sure.

Mike Smithosn